R IMMEDIA
ATE RELEA
ASE
Novem
mber 5, 20113
INTE
ERVIEWS: Tom Jenseen 919-744-6
6312
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OU HAVE BASIC ME
ETHODOLO
OGICAL Q
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S, PLEASE
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ublicpolicyp
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SULT THE FINAL PA
ARAGRAPH
H
OF THE
T
PRESS
S RELEASE
E
Cruz do
own 17 to Hillary bu
ut still leaading with conservattives
Raleiigh, N.C. If
I the 2016 presidential
p
contest
c
weree between H
Hillary Clintoon and Ted
Cruz,, it has the potential of producing
p
thee most lopsidded nationall popular votte result
since Lyndon Joh
hnson routed
d Barry Gold
dwater in 19664. But Cruuz remains att or near the
top of Republican
ns preferencce in the prim
mary.
uz by 17 poin
nts, 50-33, by
b far the woorst outcomee of the four matchups
Clinton leads Cru
tested
d. As usual, Chris Chrisstie comes cllosest to Clinnton, trailingg by only fivve (44-39),
follow
wed by Jeb Bush
B
nine po
oints down (48-39)
(
and R
Rand Paul 12 (49-37).
If Joee Biden weree the Democcratic nomineee, he wouldd do an averaage of aboutt eight and a
half points
p
worsee than Clinto
on. He trails Christie by seven (38-445) and Bushh by one (42-43), but
b still leads Paul by sev
ven (45-38) and Cruz byy 10 (46-36).
Despite Cruzs neear-record poor perform
mance againstt Clinton andd Biden, he is still in a
f
place with
w five otheer candidatess in the prim
mary. He led the field
statistical tie for first
with 20% to Rand
d Pauls 17%
%, Chris Chrristies 14%,, Jeb Bushs 11%, and P
Paul Ryans
and Marco
M
Rubio
os 10% in laate Septembeer, the first ttime PPP hadd found thatt nationally,
and an
a eight-poin
nt jump for Cruz
C
from Ju
uly. Now, foour candidatees fall betweeen 14% andd
16%,, with two otthers theorettically also tiied for the leead. Paul annd Christie nnominally topp
at 16%
% over Cruzzs 15%, Busshs 14%, Ryans
R
11%, Rubios 10%
%, Bobby Jinndals 6%,
and Rick
R Santoru
ums 5%, witth 8% undeccided.
Cruz falling five points at this point does not mean m
much when nno one else ccan claim
mentum or a stronger
s
posiition. Cruz also
a remainss in the lead with the moost right-winng
mom
voterrs. He has 26
6% to Paulss 18%, Bush
hs 15%, andd Ryans 13%
% among thoose who
identify as very conservativeeabout a third of the electorate.
Chriis Christie will
w win a dom
minant reeleection tonighht, said Deaan Debnam, President off
Publiic Policy Pollling. But heh and all th
he rest of the Republicann 2016 hopeffuls- still runn
behin
nd Hillary Cllinton for Prresident.
PPP surveyed
s
649 American vo
oters, includin
ng an oversam
mple of 400 ussual Democraatic primary
voterss and 629 Rep
publican prim
mary voters, frrom October 229th to 31st, 2013. The marrgin of error
for the overall surv
vey is +/- 3.8%
%, +/-4.9% fo
or the Democcratic portion, and +/-3.9% for the GOP
portio
on. PPPs surv
veys are cond
ducted through
h automated ttelephone inteerviews.
Phone
e: 888 621-69
988
Web:
publicpolicypo
olling.com
www.p
Q2
Q3
Q6
Q7
Q8
Q5
Q4
Q9
18 to 29........................................................... 9%
Republican...................................................... 34%
30 to 45........................................................... 25%
46 to 65........................................................... 44%
Crosstabs
2012 Vote
2012 Vote
Barack
Mitt Som eone else/Don't
rem em ber
Base Obam a Rom ney
Hillary/Jeb
Barack
Mitt Som eone else/Don't
rem em ber
Base Obam a Rom ney
Hillary/Christie
87%
11%
26%
82%
9%
22%
6%
76%
22%
7%
13%
51%
8%
76%
16%
10%
15%
61%
2012 Vote
2012 Vote
Barack
Mitt Som eone else/Don't
rem em ber
Base Obam a Rom ney
Hillary/Cruz
Barack
Mitt Som eone else/Don't
rem em ber
Base Obam a Rom ney
Hillary/Paul
91%
12%
29%
89%
13%
24%
3%
66%
26%
5%
69%
40%
6%
22%
45%
6%
18%
37%
Crosstabs
2012 Vote
2012 Vote
Barack
Mitt Som eone else/Don't
rem em ber
Base Obam a Rom ney
Biden/Jeb
Barack
Mitt Som eone else/Don't
rem em ber
Base Obam a Rom ney
Biden/Christie
82%
5%
19%
73%
6%
19%
7%
82%
28%
16%
78%
22%
11%
13%
53%
11%
16%
59%
2012 Vote
2012 Vote
Barack
Mitt Som eone else/Don't
rem em ber
Base Obam a Rom ney
Biden/Cruz
Barack
Mitt Som eone else/Don't
rem em ber
Base Obam a Rom ney
Biden/Paul
87%
9%
23%
3%
72%
18%
11%
19%
59%
86%
7%
22%
4%
74%
35%
10%
19%
43%
Crosstabs
Ideology
Ideology
87%
84%
59%
19%
9%
85%
80%
51%
20%
10%
12%
7%
28%
63%
73%
9%
12%
32%
61%
65%
1%
8%
13%
18%
18%
6%
8%
17%
19%
25%
Ideology
Ideology
84%
87%
63%
23%
12%
85%
85%
61%
22%
11%
9%
6%
21%
52%
74%
13%
9%
24%
55%
78%
7%
7%
17%
25%
15%
2%
6%
14%
23%
11%
Crosstabs
Ideology
Ideology
80%
84%
51%
12%
9%
78%
72%
44%
14%
10%
11%
7%
34%
68%
76%
13%
15%
39%
68%
70%
9%
9%
15%
20%
15%
9%
13%
17%
19%
20%
Ideology
Ideology
84%
87%
57%
16%
11%
84%
87%
54%
16%
11%
9%
5%
21%
58%
78%
8%
5%
28%
57%
84%
7%
9%
22%
25%
11%
8%
8%
18%
27%
6%
Crosstabs
Gender
Base Wom an
Gender
Man
Hillary/Jeb
Base Wom an
Man
Hillary/Christie
52%
43%
49%
39%
33%
45%
34%
45%
15%
11%
17%
16%
Gender
Base Wom an
Gender
Man
Hillary/Cruz
Base Wom an
Man
Hillary/Paul
54%
47%
55%
44%
29%
37%
32%
43%
17%
16%
14%
14%
Crosstabs
Gender
Base Wom an
Gender
Man
Biden/Jeb
Base Wom an
Man
Biden/Christie
Joe Biden 42%
47%
37%
44%
32%
34%
52%
39%
52%
19%
11%
17%
16%
Gender
Base Wom an
Gender
Man
Biden/Cruz
Base Wom an
Man
Biden/Paul
Joe Biden 46%
49%
43%
50%
40%
30%
41%
31%
46%
21%
15%
19%
14%
Crosstabs
Party
Party
81%
15%
43%
80%
13%
35%
11%
75%
33%
11%
72%
39%
8%
10%
24%
10%
15%
26%
Party
Party
85%
14%
48%
84%
14%
48%
7%
65%
29%
11%
68%
34%
7%
21%
23%
6%
18%
19%
Crosstabs
Party
Party
83%
7%
32%
77%
8%
24%
10%
82%
39%
15%
74%
51%
7%
11%
30%
9%
18%
25%
Party
Party
84%
10%
40%
84%
9%
38%
6%
72%
31%
10%
76%
32%
10%
18%
29%
6%
15%
31%
Crosstabs
Race
Race
70%
39%
77%
58%
70%
36%
74%
49%
21%
49%
6%
13%
13%
50%
8%
16%
9%
12%
17%
29%
17%
14%
18%
34%
Race
Race
69%
43%
78%
57%
65%
42%
76%
57%
16%
42%
10%
10%
19%
45%
8%
22%
15%
16%
12%
33%
15%
12%
15%
21%
Crosstabs
Race
Race
66%
33%
74%
60%
65%
29%
66%
53%
14%
55%
6%
19%
19%
56%
13%
20%
20%
13%
20%
21%
17%
15%
21%
27%
Race
Race
70%
37%
74%
62%
66%
36%
74%
62%
12%
46%
6%
10%
12%
49%
6%
19%
18%
17%
20%
27%
22%
15%
20%
18%
Crosstabs
Age
Base
Age
18 to 30 to 46 to Older
29
45
65 than 65
Hillary/Jeb
Base
18 to 30 to 46 to Older
29
45
65 than 65
Hillary/Christie
62%
43%
47%
48%
67%
34%
44%
48%
33%
43%
38%
40%
24%
45%
40%
39%
5%
14%
15%
11%
10%
22%
16%
13%
Age
Base
Age
18 to 30 to 46 to Older
29
45
65 than 65
Hillary/Cruz
Base
18 to 30 to 46 to Older
29
45
65 than 65
Hillary/Paul
62%
46%
49%
53%
67%
42%
49%
52%
33%
32%
33%
34%
29%
41%
36%
37%
5%
22%
18%
13%
5%
17%
15%
11%
Crosstabs
Age
Base
Age
18 to 30 to 46 to Older
29
45
65 than 65
Biden/Jeb
Base
18 to 30 to 46 to Older
29
45
65 than 65
Biden/Christie
Joe Biden 42%
67%
42%
39%
41%
67%
34%
35%
39%
24%
48%
43%
44%
33%
49%
45%
46%
10%
11%
18%
15%
17%
21%
15%
Age
Base
Age
18 to 30 to 46 to Older
29
45
65 than 65
Biden/Cruz
Base
18 to 30 to 46 to Older
29
45
65 than 65
Biden/Paul
Joe Biden 46%
62%
45%
43%
48%
67%
42%
42%
46%
29%
32%
39%
36%
24%
39%
40%
40%
10%
23%
18%
16%
10%
19%
18%
14%
Q3
Q4
Q5
Q6
Moderate......................................................... 20%
Q7
Q2
Man................................................................. 48%
Q8
Crosstabs
Ideology
Ideology
Very Som ew hat
Som ew hat
Very
liberal Moderate conservative conservative
Base liberal
6%
8%
16%
10%
14%
31%
11%
18%
11%
9%
33%
32%
15%
3%
10%
33%
36%
16%
3%
8%
5%
11%
25%
11%
5%
12%
26%
11%
3%
5%
7%
38%
10%
17%
18%
5%
11%
3%
4%
6%
Sarah Palin
7%
59%
8%
5%
6%
6%
13%
Bobby Jindal
6%
9%
8%
13%
6%
7%
8%
12%
13%
3%
2%
4%
8%
21%
10%
9%
3%
8%
14%
15%
Marco Rubio
9%
5%
6%
12%
6%
Paul Ryan
9%
7%
12%
9%
Rick Santorum
5%
7%
Rick Santorum
4%
2%
2%
7%
8%
7%
13%
28%
15%
13%
8%
Ideology
15%
Ideology
56%
57%
25%
44%
51%
43%
32%
31%
21%
34%
43%
53%
37%
28%
90%
52%
50%
49%
71%
10%
22%
19%
20%
10%
4%
18%
20%
9%
Crosstabs
Ideology
Gender
Man
26%
16%
11%
2%
66%
45%
18%
32%
57%
34%
30%
66%
57%
41%
Base Wom an
9%
12%
13%
15%
15%
14%
14%
Bobby Jindal
5%
4%
5%
Sarah Palin
7%
6%
7%
12%
14%
Marco Rubio
9%
8%
9%
Paul Ryan
9%
9%
10%
Rick Santorum
4%
5%
3%
15%
10%
Gender
Gender
Base Wom an
2016 GOP Pres
Preference w /o Palin
Jeb Bush 14%
14%
15%
16%
16%
15%
15%
6%
5%
7%
14%
17%
9%
10%
10%
12%
Bobby Jindal
Rick Santorum
5%
6%
3%
8%
10%
6%
Base Wom an
Man
Man
Should Students Be
Able to Wear
Confederate Flags?
Think they should 43%
35%
51%
44%
30%
20%
19%
Crosstabs
Gender
Base Wom an
Gender
Man
Base Wom an
Should Students Be
Able to Wear Gay
Pride Flags?
Man
More Appropriate to
Wear Confederate or
Gay Pride Flag?
25%
31%
58%
56%
17%
13%
9%
8%
10%
34%
43%
58%
47%
Age
Base
Age
18 to 46 to Older
45
65 than 65
Base
18 to 46 to Older
45
65 than 65
11%
11%
15%
13%
12%
18%
15%
18%
12%
17%
19%
12%
18%
14%
11%
18%
14%
14%
6%
3%
5%
Bobby Jindal
5%
Bobby Jindal
6%
6%
4%
7%
16%
14%
7%
10%
4%
7%
17%
11%
14%
12%
5%
9%
14%
13%
11%
9%
Sarah Palin
Marco Rubio
9%
5%
8%
12%
Paul Ryan
9%
10%
10%
8%
Rick Santorum
5%
4%
5%
5%
Rick Santorum
4%
3%
5%
4%
8%
6%
10%
6%
10%
13%
14%
Crosstabs
Age
Base
Age
18 to 46 to Older
45
65 than 65
Should Students Be
Able to Wear
Confederate Flags?
Base
18 to 46 to Older
45
65 than 65
Should Students Be
Able to Wear Gay
Pride Flags?
46%
44%
39%
31%
30%
23%
39%
35%
39%
55%
57%
58%
15%
20%
23%
14%
13%
18%
Age
Base
18 to 46 to Older
45
65 than 65
More Appropriate to
Wear Confederate or
Gay Pride Flag?
9%
8%
10%
10%
44%
35%
37%
48%
54%
53%
Q3
Cory Booker.................................................... 1%
Q4
Q2
Moderate......................................................... 38%
Somewhat conservative.................................. 8%
Very conservative ........................................... 5%
Q5
Cory Booker.................................................... 6%
Man................................................................. 40%
Q6
Q7
Crosstabs
Ideology
Ideology
11%
19%
8%
3%
0%
2%
1%
63%
68%
71%
56%
11%
55%
Andrew Cuom o
2%
2%
2%
3%
Kirsten Gillibrand
0%
1%
Martin O'Malley
2%
2%
16%
Mark Warner
1%
1%
2%
Elizabeth Warren
4%
10%
6%
1%
2%
3%
17%
5%
10%
36%
16%
38%
23%
13%
16%
Cory Booker
6%
1%
3%
10%
21%
Andrew Cuom o
6%
6%
6%
6%
11%
3%
Kirsten Gillibrand
4%
7%
3%
5%
2%
Martin O'Malley
3%
2%
1%
6%
1%
5%
Mark Warner
1%
1%
2%
1%
25%
20%
20%
3%
18%
27%
28%
30%
72%
42%
Ideology
Gender
Base Wom an
Man
17%
9%
16%
2%
34%
9%
14%
13%
11%
20%
Kirsten Gillibrand
3%
2%
5%
2%
3%
Martin O'Malley
4%
8%
5%
4%
1%
7%
1%
Mark Warner
2%
2%
4%
30%
31%
19%
11%
27%
32%
42%
73%
46%
12%
12%
1%
1%
0%
69%
65%
Andrew Cuom o
2%
0%
3%
Kirsten Gillibrand
0%
0%
0%
Martin O'Malley
2%
1%
2%
Mark Warner
1%
0%
2%
Elizabeth Warren
4%
4%
4%
12%
12%
Crosstabs
Gender
Gender
Base Wom an
Base Wom an
Man
Man
27%
28%
13%
15%
9%
19%
3%
5%
1%
4%
Cory Booker
6%
4%
9%
Andrew Cuom o
6%
4%
9%
Kirsten Gillibrand
4%
4%
3%
Martin O'Malley
4%
5%
Martin O'Malley
3%
0%
6%
1%
1%
1%
1%
0%
1%
Mark Warner
2%
2%
2%
Mark Warner
1%
1%
2%
24%
22%
22%
16%
41%
35%
37%
27%
Kirsten Gillibrand
Race
Race
5%
17%
51%
1%
1%
1%
43%
73%
66%
35%
2%
7%
Andrew Cuom o
2%
Kirsten Gillibrand
0%
1%
Martin O'Malley
2%
1%
6%
Mark Warner
1%
1%
4%
3%
5%
4%
23%
11%
6%
7%
Elizabeth Warren
46%
23%
28%
34%
Cory Booker
6%
6%
10%
14%
Andrew Cuom o
6%
4%
7%
3%
7%
Kirsten Gillibrand
4%
5%
4%
Martin O'Malley
3%
3%
6%
1%
1%
7%
Mark Warner
1%
1%
2%
14%
22%
8%
17%
32%
32%
41%
20%
Crosstabs
Race
Age
18 to 46 to Older
45
65 than 65
18%
11%
25%
17%
9%
16%
2%
7%
3%
9%
Kirsten Gillibrand
Base
3%
1%
19%
7%
9%
1%
1%
60%
69%
73%
3%
3%
Martin O'Malley
4%
5%
3%
11%
Andrew Cuom o
2%
1%
5%
1%
Kirsten Gillibrand
0%
1%
1%
Mark Warner
2%
3%
1%
Martin O'Malley
2%
4%
15%
27%
14%
14%
Mark Warner
1%
2%
1%
47%
36%
38%
62%
Elizabeth Warren
4%
8%
5%
17%
9%
9%
Age
Base
Age
18 to 46 to Older
45
65 than 65
Base
18 to 46 to Older
45
65 than 65
29%
25%
29%
23%
7%
11%
11%
13%
16%
Cory Booker
6%
8%
5%
4%
Andrew Cuom o
6%
2%
7%
11%
Kirsten Gillibrand
3%
4%
3%
2%
Kirsten Gillibrand
4%
6%
3%
2%
Martin O'Malley
4%
9%
3%
Martin O'Malley
3%
4%
3%
1%
2%
1%
1%
2%
Mark Warner
2%
5%
2%
Mark Warner
1%
1%
3%
21%
26%
22%
19%
20%
19%
30%
42%
47%
31%
33%
34%