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10/18/2013

The Normal Distribution-why is it the most important distribution for us? IMBAS KEMBALI KONSEP ASAS

The Standard Normal Distribution

What is the most famous normal distribution?

A normal distribution with a mean equal to 0 and a standard deviation equal to 1; denoted as N(0,1) So, why is this distribution so special?

Standard Normal Distribution

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The transformation formula

Finding the probability when given the z score

Ulangkaji Taburan Normal.

Contoh 1:
Sykt Precision Scientific Instrument mengeluarkan termometer yg memberi bacaan 0C pada tahap beku air. Ujian yg dijlankan ke atas satu sampel termometer tersebut mendapati sesetengah termometer memberi bacaan di bawah 0C pada tahap beku air manakala sebahagian memberi bacaan di atas 0C. Andaikan min bacaan adalah 0C dan sisihan piawai adalah 1.00C serta bacaan suhu adalah bertaburan normal. Jika satu termometer dipilih secara rawak, dapatkan kebarangkalian bahawa pada tahap beku air bacaan adalah antara 0C dan 1.58C.

Contoh 1: Penyelesaian

Dapatkan kawasan di antara 0 dan z. (z = 1.58)

Kawasan = 0.4429

z = 1.58

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Example 2:

Example 3:

Guna contoh yg sama, dapatkan kebarangkalian bagi satu termometer yg dipilih secara rawak memberi bacaan di antara 2.43C dan 0C pada tahap beku air.
Kawasan = 0.4925

Guna contoh yg sama, dapatkan kebarangkalian bagi satu termometer yg dipilih secara rawak memberi bacaan lebih daripada 1.27C pada tahap beku air.

Kawasan = 0.1020

z = -2.43 0

z = 2.43
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z = 1.27
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Example 8:
Dlm merekabentuk semula tempat duduk jet utk disesuaikan dgn juruterbang wanita, didapati berat wanita adalah bertaburan normal dgn min 65kg dan sisihan piawai 13kg. Apakah kebarangkalian seorang wanita yang dipilih secara rawak mempunyai berat badan antara 63kg dan 95kg.
A B

Example 8 (penyelesaian): The area we are looking for is A + B


x1 x2

63 65 z= = 13 = 0.15
A B

z=

95 65 13

= 2.31

63 x1

65

95 x2

x (berat)

-0.15 0

2.31

Therefore P(140 < x <211) = P(-0.10 < z < 2.34) = 0.5492

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Soalan??

One Sample Z-Test & One Sample t-test

The Formula
Satu data 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6.

6 Langkah Ujian Hipotesis


Tulis Hipotesis Tetapkan alpha ( ) Buat pengiraan Dapatkan critical value Lakarkan kawasan penolakan hipotesis nol Buat Keputusan dan tulis kesimpulan

Satu taburan

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Creating the research hypotheses


Research hypotheses describe the predicted relationship we may or may not find. One-tailed test when you predict the direction of the relationship Two-tailed test when you do not predict the direction of the relationship / both relationship makes sense.

Creating the Statistical Hypotheses


So that we can apply statistical procedure, we translate our research hypotheses into statistical hypotheses Statistical hypotheses describe the population parameters that the sample data represent if the predicted relationship does or does not exist.
Alternative Hypotheses Null-Hypotheses

Statistical Hypotheses
Are our students IQ different from the National Norm of 100 points? Null Hypothesis
H0 : = 100

Performing The Z-Test


4 Assumptions
We have randomly selected one sample Dependent variable is at least approx normally distributed in the pop, and involves interval or ratio scale We know in some other condition We know the true not estimated using the sample

Alternative Hypothesis
H1 : 100

Contoh 1
Skor masalah kelakuan pelajar sekolah menengah di Malaysia mempunyai =50 dan =10 dan taburannya adalah normal Anda ingin melihat jika pelajar yang pernah melalui suatu peristiwa traumatik/stres mempunyai masalah kelakuan yang lebih tinggi atau lebih rendah daripada pelajar normal Sampel: n = 5

Contoh 1

Data: 48 62 53 66 51 Mean = ?? Cari Sekarang

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Contoh 1
H0 : = 50 H1 : 50 alpha = 0.05

Contoh 1
Zobt = 1.75 now we have to compare this value with the Z critical value If we set our significance level at 0.05, look at Table A.2 (page 2 of our tables). Draw the Z distribution, mark the critical values on the distribution, then note where Zobt sits on that distribution. decision to reject / not reject Null Hypothesis.

Interpreting Significant Result


Significant indicates that our results are unlikely to occur if the predicted relationship does not exist in the population. We imply that the relationship found in the study is believable, representing a real relationship found in nature.

Interpreting Non-Significant Result


Just report that the results were not significant. Not significant indicates that the results are likely to reflect sampling error, without there being a relationship in nature

Practice 1
Anda hendak menilai jika mereka yang mendiet adalah lebih yakin dengan bentuk badan mereka berbanding dengan populasi normal. = 40; = 12.
Saiz sampel = 36 min sampel = 45, Apakah kesimpulan anda?

One-Tailed Test
Z crit with = 0.05, the total region of rejection is 0.05 of the curve. identify the region of rejection.
The direction of the relationship

Z crit = 1.645 Zobt = 2.5

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Practice 2
Anda hendak menilai keberkesanan suatu diet untuk menurunkan berat badan.
Jika = 155, nyatakan H0 dan H1 . Lukiskan region of rejection. Jika = 0.05, Zkiraan = -1.86. Apakah kesimpulan anda?

Errors in Statistical Decisions


Type 1 error: rejecting H0 when H0 is true (probability = 1- )

Type 2 errir: Retaining H0 when H0 is false (probability = 1 )

Power
Power = the probability that we will reject H0 when it is false probability of not making type 2 error Increase by best choice of statistics used i.e. one-tailed test and two-tailed test.

Putting it all together


Purpose of Inferential Statistics is to minimize the probability of us making type 1 and type 2 errors!

How to report your findings?


Kajian ingin melihat jika mereka yang mendiet mempunyai keyakinan yang lebih terhadap bentuk badan mereka berbanding dengan populasi umum. Ujian Z telah dijalankan dan didapati mereka yang mendiet mempunyai keyakinan diri yang lebih tinggi berbanding populasi umum (Z=+2.5, p<0.05).

One Sample t-test


Use t-test when we do not know the standard deviation of the population. Called t-test because use Students tdistribution and not z-distribution

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Performing 1-sample t-test


Womens magazine reported that they had done a test on the ability of women perform house chores, and found their score to be 75 so, this means = 75. We want to know if there is a difference between men and women in the ability to perform house chores. = ??

Formula for one sample t -test

Back to sample
Womens magazine reported that they had done a test on the ability of women perform house chores, and found their score to be 75 so, this means = 75. We want to know is there is a difference between men and women in the ability to perform house chores. = ??

Back to Example - 1
= 75 ; = ?? Min sample = 65, N=30 , s=5 Kirakan tkiraan Bandingkan dengan nilai t kritial daripada jadual.

Degrees of Freedom
The t-distribution has many shapes, depending on the sample size. Using t-tables to identify tcrit

T-Distribution

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Computing Confidence Interval


T-test forms the basis for confidence interval. We seek the highest and lowest that are not significantly different from the sample mean. You are calculating interval that the of the population that you are studying will fall on. AND you are 95% sure of this interval.

But, remember
X

But, remember
All that we have is our sample.

Still, a Confidence Interval is more useful in estimating the population parameter than is a mere point estimate alone. So, how do we make em?

Sample
size = n

Sample

size = n

CONFIDENCE INTERVAL
(1 - )% confidence interval for a population parameter P( C. I. encloses true population parameter ) = 1 - Note: = P(Confidence Interval misses true population parameter ) Proportion of times such a CI misses the population parameter

Lets make one of these.


From the previous example of house chores

Sample saiz = 36

Margin of Error
Point estimate

critical value

Std. dev. of point estimate

sample statistic ex:

or

standard deviation of sampling distribution

z / 2

t / 2

(aka Standard Error)

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How to report your findings?


Kajian ini ingin menguji hipotesis kemahiran lelaki melakukan kerja rumah berbezan dengan wanita. Ujian t satu sampel telah dijalankan dan dapatan kajian menunjukkan bahawa terdapat perbezaan kemahiran yang signifikan antara lelaki dalam kemahiran mereka melakukan kerja rumah berbanding wanita, t(29)=10.95, p<0.05, 95% CI = 63.1 66.9.

Perhatian
Perhatikan bahawa nilai anggaran kami (dalam penggiraan 95% CI) TIDAK merangkumi populasi bandingan (wanita) iaitu = 75.

Practice
Dalam suatu kajian, H0 ialah = 10. Data yang diperolehi adalah 6, 7, 9, 8, 8. Lakukan ujian hipotesis yang sesuai.
Dapatkan tkiraan Kirakan 95% confidence interval

Interpreting t-test
Same rules as interpreting z-test

SPSS can also compute the one sample t-test.

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