AACE Internationals Professional Practice Guide to Risk, Second Edition

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Introduction to the Second Edition Introduction to the First Edition Chapter I: Dictionary 1. AACE International's Risk Management Dictionary, AACE International's Decision and Risk Management Committee, Cost Engineering Journal, 2000 Chapter II: Capital Investments 1. Risk Analysis for Capital Projects Using Risk Elements, Sam L. Shafer, AACE Transactions, 1974 2. Quantifying Risks in Capital Estimates, Patricia A. Owen; John K. Nabors, AACE Transactions, 1983 3. Simplified Risk Analysis in Project Economics, Julian A. Piekarski, CCE, AACE Transactions, 1984 4. Managing Project Execution Risks, G. Frederick Ort, AACE Transactions, 1985 5. Risk Analysis In Capital Cost Estimating, KS Mathur, Cost Engineering Journal, 1989 6. Expert Systems for Minimum Scope Estimating in the Process Industries, Dr. Robert L. Steinberger, AACE Transactions, 1994 7. Managing Risk on Capital Projects, Joseph A. Lukas, PE, CCE, AACE Transactions, 1995 8. Managing Risk on Global Projects, Charles P. Woodward, PE CCE; Kartar Singh, PE, AACE Transactions, 1996 9. Methodology and Techniques of Estimating Heavy Industrial Process-Related Projects, Kiran Jani, PE, AACE Transactions, 1996 10. Risk and Capital Budgeting, Reza Amirkhalili, AACE Transactions, 1997 11. From Business Opportunity to Cost Target, Herman C. Poortinga, CCE, AACE Transactions, 1999 12. Constructability: The Key to Reducing Investment Risk, Allan D. Chasey; Ann M. Schexnayder, AACE Transactions, 2000 13. Cost Engineering Taking on Capital Management, Bernard A. Pietlock, AACE Transactions, 2000 14. The Future Net Present Value of Investment Alternatives, Maarten S.A. Vrijland, AACE Transactions, 2000 15. Probabilistic Selection of Project Alternatives, Leroy J. Isidore; Adetokunbo A. Oyetunji, AACE Transactions, 2000 16. Integrate Analysis: A New Company Evaluation Method, Nicolae Postavaru, AACE Transactions, 2000 17. Projects, Operations, and Capabilities in Evaluation of a Strategic Plan, Corrado Gatti; Gianluca Vagnani, AACE Transactions, 2002 18. Power Plant Financial Pro Forma Analysis, Gordon V.Z. Beard, PE CCE, AACE Transactions, 2003 19. Exploration Risk Management and Business Development in the Petroleum Industry, Varoujan K. Minassian; George F. Jergeas, P.Eng., AACE Transactions, 2003 20. Quantifying the Benefits of Sustainable Buildings, Benson Kwong, PE CCE, AACE Transactions, 2004 21. Budgeting School Construction Projects, Iftikhar K. Madni, CCE, AACE Transactions, 2004 22. Portfolio Approach to Program Management, Robert B. Connors, PE CCE, AACE Transactions, 2004 23. Risk Mitigation Plan for Optimizing Protection of Constructed Facilities, Harold E. Marshall; Robert E. Chapman; Chi J. Leng, Cost Engineering Journal, 2004 24. Implementation of Successful Risk-Based Portfolio Management, Iqbal Noor, PE CCE; Robert Martin; Douglas Bowman, AACE Transactions, 2005 25. Feasibility Studies: A Case For Using A Stochastic Approach, Sabah Alkass, P.Eng.; Saad Al-Jibouri; Vipha Techakosol, AACE Transactions, 2006 Chapter III: Cash Flow 1. Life-Cycle Costing, Louis C. Amadio, AACE Transactions, 1979 2. Selection of Discount Rates for Project Evaluation: Principles and Pitfalls, A. Lawrence Kolbe, AACE Transactions, 1983 3. Range Estimating - Coping with Uncertainty, Michael W. Curran, AACE Transactions, 1976 4. Construction Process Risk Allocation, Carl A. Erikson; Leroy T. Boyer; Michael J. O'Connor, AACE Transactions, 1978

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5. 6. Enhancing Profitability for Unit Price Contracts, Robert H. Mayer, Jr.; James E. Diekmann, AACE Transactions, 1982 Range Estimating: Reasoning with Risk, Michael W. Curran, AACE Transactions, 1988

Chapter IV: Competitive Bidding 1. Range Estimating - Coping with Uncertainty, Michael W. Curran, AACE Transactions, 1976 2. Construction Process Risk Allocation, Carl A. Erikson; Leroy T. Boyer; Michael J. O'Connor, AACE Transactions, 1978 3. Enhancing Profitability for Unit Price Contracts, Robert H. Mayer, Jr.; James E. Diekmann, AACE Transactions, 1982 4. Range Estimating: Reasoning with Risk, Michael W. Curran, AACE Transactions, 1988 5. Statistical Bidding Models, Robert A. McKim, PE, Cost Engineering Journal, 1999 6. Risk Analysis and Optimization of the (Un)Balanced Bid, Jon Hoogenboom, PE; W. Stephen Dale; Craig Martell, AACE Transactions, 2006 Chapter V: Contingency Analysis 1. A Mathematical Model for Contingency, James E. Spooner, AACE Transactions, 1973 2. Estimate Contingency, Risk, and Accuracy - What Do They Mean?, Raleigh S. Williamson; Jack F. Browder, CCC; William R. Donnell IV, AACE Transactions, 1980 3. Contingency It Demands Equal Time, JR Duenas, Cost Engineering Journal, 1981 4. Contingency Funds Evaluation, John R. Healy, CCE, AACE Transactions, 1982 5. An Overview Of Contingency Considerations, MW Graf, Cost Engineering Journal, 1984 6. Contingency Evaluation in Capital Cost, Lawrence C. Bacher, CCE, AACE Transactions, 1984 7. Determining Meaningful Estimate Contingency, JJ Stevenson, Cost Engineering Journal, 1984 8. Applied Contingency Analysis, John W. Hackney, CCE, AACE Transactions, 1985 9. Range Estimating Operating and Manufacturing Costs, Michael W. Curran, AACE Transactions, 1986 10. Economic Risk of Offshore Field Development, Rolf Skjong; Jon Lereim, AACE Transactions, 1988 11. How Accurate are Capital Cost Estimates?, G. Stevens; T. Davis, AACE Transactions, 1988 12. Management of Project Risk, Dr. James M. Neil, CCE, AACE Transactions, 1989 13. Managing Change: Making the Most of Contingency, Daniel W. Jordan, CCE, AACE Transactions, 1989 14. Range Estimating: Contingencies with Confidence, Michael W. Curran, AACE Transactions, 1989 15. Range Estimating: Measuring Uncertainty and Reasoning with Risk, Michael W. Curran, Cost Engineering Journal, 1989 16. The Project Manager - Risk Taker and Contingency Planner, David H. Hamburger, PE, AACE Transactions, 1989 17. What is Contingency, Anyway?, Wesley R. Querns, CCE, AACE Transactions, 1989 18. How to Deal With Accuracy and Contingency, C. Peter Rapier, AACE Transactions, 1990 19. How to Uncover Program Cost Risks, Robert M. Smith, PE, AACE Transactions, 1991 20. Contingency Allocation: A Computer-Aided Approach, Irtishad Ahmad, AACE Transactions, 1992 21. Contingency Draw-Down Using Risk Analysis, Randal B. Lorance, PE, AACE Transactions, 1992 22. Integrated Estimating Technique, Arun Chakravartty, PE, AACE Transactions, 1992 23. Contingency Management for the Hong Kong Airport Care Program (ACP), Jhan Schmitz; Norman H. Shotwell, AACE Transactions, 1993 24. Contingency Revisited, Gideon Samid, PE, Cost Engineering Journal, 1994 25. Contingency Estimating for Environmental Remediation Projects, Donald Wendel, CCC, Cost Engineering Journal, 1995 26. Factored Estimating Guidelines - Refinery/Petrochemical Projects, Robert S. Smith, PE, AACE Transactions, 1996 27. Risk Assessment and Contingency Estimating, Dr. Osama Moselhi, PE, AACE Transactions, 1997 28. GRIMS: A Systemic Approach to Geological Risk Management for Underground Work, Dr. Giuseppe Pignanelli, CCE; Dr. Monica Papini; Dr. Antonella Granito, AACE Transactions, 1999 29. A Neural Network Approach to Risk Assessment and Contingency Allocation, Dong Chen; Francis T. Hartman, AACE Transactions, 2000

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30. 31. 32. 33. 34. 35. 36. 37. 38. Contingency Management on DOE Projects, Edward E. Douglas, III, CCC, AACE Transactions, 2001 Risk Response and Contingency Strategies Among Contractors in Sydney, Australia, Deepak Bajaj, AACE Transactions, 2001 Risk Modeling with Influence Factors, Robert J. Coppo, AACE Transactions, 2003 Contingency, Quantifying the Uncertainty, Riaan Burger, CCE, Cost Engineering Journal, 2003 Contingency Misuse and Other Risk Management Pitfalls, Iqbal Noor, PE CCE; Robert L. Tichacek, PE, AACE Transactions, 2004 Cost Contingency as the Standard Deviation of the Cost Estimate, Geoffrey Rothwell, Cost Engineering Journal, 2005 Significance of WBS in Contingency Modeling, John Gengxin Zhao, AACE Transactions, 2006 Why Traditional Risk Management Fails in the Oil and Gas Sector: Empirical Front-Line Evidence and Effective Solutions, Brett Schroeder; Jan A. Jackson, AACE Transactions, 2007 The Monte-Carlo Challenge: A Better Approach, John K. Hollmann, PE CCE, AACE Transactions, 2007

Chapter VI: Contracts 1. A Conceptual Aspect of Project Management: Point of No Return, Dr. Yash P. Gupta, AACE Transactions, 1981 2. Effective Contract Management, James A. Bent, CCC, AACE Transactions, 1989 3. A Productivity Challenge in a Utility's Reliability Construction Program, H. Leon Ellis; Dr. Saied Gouda, PE; Scott Trowbridge, PE, AACE Transactions, 1993 4. Government Requirements for Estimating System Audits, Frank D. Postula, PE CCE, AACE Transactions, 1993 5. The Cost of General Conditions, Daniel F. Becker, AACE Transactions, 1993 6. Transaction Exposure Management in International Construction, Hans Fritsche, AACE Transactions, 1994 7. General Conditions and Fee Risk Analysis, Lorry T. Bannes, PE, AACE Transactions, 1995 8. Linking Contractor Payments to Contractor Performance, Quentin W. Fleming; Joel M. Koppelman, AACE Transactions, 1995 9. "Risk Sharing" - Good Concept, Bad Name, James G. Zack, Jr., AACE Transactions, 1995 10. A Contract Clause for Allocating Risks, Dr. George F. Jergeas, P.Eng.; Dr. Francis T. Hartman, P.Eng., AACE Transactions, 1996 11. Pricing the Risk of Liability Associated With Environmental Clean-Up Projects, Dr. Joon H. Paek, AACE Transactions, 1996 12. Project Capital Cost Risks and Contracting Strategies, Dr. Keith Pedwell, P.Eng.; Dr. Francis T. Hartman, P.Eng.; Dr. George F. Jergeas, P.Eng., AACE Transactions, 1996 13. Subcontracting Out Scope: According to Plan, Quentin W. Fleming; Joel M. Koppelman, AACE Transactions, 1996 14. ...Project Risks and Risk Allocation, John A. Rutgers; H. Dean Haley, Cost Engineering Journal, 1996 15. A Realistic Approach To Risk, Ian B. Parr, AACE Transactions, 1997 16. Construction Defects Claims Analysis and Mitigation, Neil D. Opfer, CCE, AACE Transactions, 1997 17. Evaluating Best Value Contract Proposals, Dr. Douglas D. Gransberg, PE, AACE Transactions, 1997 18. Appropriate Risk Allocation in Lump-Sum Contracts - Who Should Take the Risk?, Dr. Francis T. Hartman, PE; Patrick Snelgrove, P.Eng.; Dr. Rafi Ashrafi, Cost Engineering Journal, 1998 19. Construction Contracts: Shifting Risk or Generating a Claim?, Donald F. McDonald, Jr., PE CCE; John O. Evans III, AACE Transactions, 1998 20. Managing Risk in Design-Build, Talal Abi-Karam, AACE Transactions, 2001 21. Understanding Risk to Mitigate Changes and Avoid Disputes, L. Adam Winegard; Stephen P. Warhoe, PE CCE, AACE Transactions, 2003 22. Risk Mitigation in Fast Tracking Projects, Albert van der Werf, CCE, AACE Transactions, 2003 23. Self-Perform Versus Subcontract Decision in Construction Contracts, Khaled Nassar, AACE Transactions, 2003 24. Identifying Risk Transfer Traps, Sidney J. Hymes, AACE Transactions, 2005 25. Client and Contractor Attitudes to Prequalification, Anthony Mills, AACE Transactions, 2005 26. Exculpatory Clauses in Construction Contracts: The Effect of the Use of Exculpatory Clauses On Contractors Bid Price, Bashar Haddad, AACE Transactions, 2007

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Chapter VII: Cost Engineering 1. Challenges and Pitfalls of Conceptual Estimating, Maureen C. Cronin, AACE Transactions, 1975 2. An Owner's Experience with Computerized Estimating and Scheduling, Randolph J. Brozek, AACE Transactions, 1978 3. Benefits of Probabilistic Cost Estimating for Nuclear Power Plant Projects, William C Finch; Franklin D. Postula, AACE Transactions, 1979 4. Management Science Applications in Cost Engineering, Dr. Aaron Rose, CCE, AACE Transactions, 1979 5. Probabilistic Cost Estimate Tree Analysis - Computer Program, Kazumi Kageyama, AACE Transactions, 1979 6. Estimating Commercial Electric Energy Conversion Costs at Liquid-dominated Geothermal Reservoirs, George; WO Jacobsen; DG Van Newell; LG Wagenen; JW Caroll, AACE Transactions, 1980 7. Statistical Techniques in Cost Engineering, Carlos Uriegas-Torres, AACE Transactions, 1981 8. The Application of Probabilistic Cost Estimating to an Advanced Energy System, William C. Finch; Kathryn A. Young, AACE Transactions, 1981 9. What's the Hang-Up with Computers in Construction Cost Estimating?, H.P. Connor, AACE Transactions, 1981 10. Forecasting Final Project Cost with Econometric Techniques, John K. Nabors, AACE Transactions, 1982 11. Cumulative Law of Common Events, Marvin Gates, CCE; Amerigo Scarpa, AACE Transactions, 1983 12. Is Your Rate of Return Too Low?, Henry C. Thorne, CCE, AACE Transactions, 1983 13. Risk Evaluation of Alternative Energy Sources, W. C. Finch; F. D. Postula, AACE Transactions, 1983 14. The Value of Precision in Cost Estimates, David A. Frost, AACE Transactions, 1984 15. Assessing and Managing Project Risks, Richard S. Madenburg, PE; M. C. Humphrey, PE, AACE Transactions, 1986 16. Cost Estimating -- Dealing with Uncertainty, P. A. Wright; T. V. Hill, AACE Transactions, 1986 17. Determining Overrun Probabilities, John W. Hackney, CCE, AACE Transactions, 1986 18. Cost Estimation as a Complexity Modeling Problem, Celestine A. Ntuen; Arup K. Mallik, PE, AACE Transactions, 1987 19. Approaches in Construction Project Cost Risk, Karlos A. Artto, AACE Transactions, 1988 20. Accuracy of Hazardous Waste Project Estimates, John W. Hackney, CCE, AACE Transactions, 1989 21. Advanced Cost Estimating, Donald F. McDonald, Jr.,CCC, AACE Transactions, 1989 22. Balanced Reduction Of Uncertainty, G Samid, Cost Engineering Journal, 1989 23. Parametric Cost Estimating: A Design Function, Edwin B. Dean, AACE Transactions, 1989 24. Direct Range Cost Estimating, Dr. Paul F. Mlakar; Larry M. Bryant, AACE Transactions, 1990 25. Range Estimating Reduces Iatrogenic Risk, Michael W. Curran, AACE Transactions, 1990 26. Direct Range Estimating for Change Orders, John R. Knoke, PE; John R. Spittler, PE, AACE Transactions, 1991 27. Estimate and Project Risk Analysis Approaches, Sam L. Shafer, PE, AACE Transactions, 1991 28. Historical Data-Driven Range Estimating, Thomas W. Townley, CCC, AACE Transactions, 1991 29. A Project Definition Methodology for Environmental Restoration Projects, J. L. Poldy; W. R. Shangraw; R. F. Shangraw, Jr., AACE Transactions, 1992 30. A Technique for Assessing Cost Uncertainty, Carl R. Hudson, AACE Transactions, 1992 31. Modular Factored Estimating: The New Wave, Walter J. Strutt, PE CCE, AACE Transactions, 1992 32. Reducing Construction Risks through Project Controls, Danny J. Whitecotton; Brett M. McPherson, AACE Transactions, 1992 33. Risk Management-Back To Basics, RA Mckim,, Cost Engineering Journal, 1992 34. Using @Risk to Predict Project Costs, Raymond E. Cochrane,PE CCE, AACE Transactions, 1992 35. Nuclear Industry Restart - The Daunting Uncertainty, Richard S. Capone; Ronald T. Pullie, AACE Transactions, 1993 36. Power Plant Outage Project Productivity Improvement, Hans E. Picard; Harley R. Macklin, PE, AACE Transactions, 1993 37. A Parametric Building Cost Estimating System, John K. Hollmann, PE, AACE Transactions, 1994 38. Contractor Risks in Conceptual Estimating, Joon Hong Paek, Cost Engineering Journal, 1994 39. Risk Analysis-Some Practical Suggestions, DH Buchan, Cost Engineering Journal, 1994 40. Cost Engineering in Financial Product Development, Dr. Itzhak Wirth, AACE Transactions, 1995

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41. 42. 43. 44. 45. 46. 47. 48. 49. 50. 51. 52. 53. 54. 55. 56. 57. 58. 59. 60. 61. 62. 63. 64. 65. 66. 67. 68. 69. 70. 71. 72. 73. 74. 75. 76. 77. Developing a Project Scope/Conceptual Estimate Questionnaire, Frank B. Mitchell, Jr., AACE Transactions, 1995 Estimating? - Yesterday, Today, and Tomorrow, Kul B. Uppal, PE, AACE Transactions, 1995 Model Building Strategy for Construction Cost Overruns, Dr. Mohamed K. El-Choum, AACE Transactions, 1995 Project History - Closing the Loop, John K. Hollmann, PE, CCE, AACE Transactions, 1995 Risk Reduction Performance Measuring System (RRPMS), Sarwar A. Samad, AACE Transactions, 1995 A Probabilistic Cost Estimating Model, Dr. Thomas E. Uher, Cost Engineering Journal, 1996 Concurrent Management of Total Cost and Total Quality, Bryan R. McConachy, P.Eng., AACE Transactions, 1996 Effective Risk Management for Remediation Projects, Timothy C. McManus; Robert Goltz, PE; Lisa R. Turnbaugh, AACE Transactions, 1996 Going for the Goal, Forecasting, Joseph M. Brown, CCC, AACE Transactions, 1996 Risk Management Through Sensitivity Analysis, Dr. Ted G. Eschenbach, PE, AACE Transactions, 1996 Statistical Cost Estimating for Public Works, Dr. John D. Bledsoe, PE CCE, AACE Transactions, 1998 Basic Techniques for Analyzing and Presenting Cost Risk Analysis, Randal B. Lorance, PE; Robert V. Wendling, AACE Transactions, 1999 Techniques for Developing Cost Risk Analysis Models, Randal B. Lorance, PE; Robert V. Wendling, AACE Transactions, 1999 Integrated Range Estimating and Stochastic Scheduling, Leroy J. Isidore; Dr. W. Edward Back, AACE Transactions, 1999 Fuzzy Sets Theory and Range Estimating, Ahmed Abdel-Baset Hassanein; Vasu Cherlopalle, AACE Transactions, 1999 Monte Carlo Analysis: Ten Years of Experience, Dale E. Clark, AACE Transactions, 1999 Integration of Schedule and Cost Risk Models, Robert V. Wendling; Randal B. Lorance, PE, AACE Transactions, 1999 Guidelines for Successful Risk Facilitating and Analysis, Dr. Iqbal Noor, PE CCE; Thomas J. Rye, AACE Transactions, 1999 A Cost Analysis Information System for Developing and Underdeveloped Countries, Abdul Samad Kazi; Dr. Chotchai Charoenngam, Cost Engineering Journal, 1999 Guidelines for Successful Risk Facilitating and Analysis, Iqbal Noor, PE CCE; Thomas J. Rye, Cost Engineering Journal, 2000 Integration of Schedule and Cost Risk Models, Robert V. Wendling; Randal B. Lorance, PE, Cost Engineering Journal, 2000 The Estimate Review and Validation Process, Larry Dysert; Bruce G. Elliott, AACE Transactions, 2000 Integrated Range Estimating and Stochastic Scheduling, Leroy Isidore; Edward Back, Cost Engineering Journal, 2001 Basic Techniques for Analyzing and Presentation of Cost Risk Analysis, Randal B. Lorance; Robert V. Wendling, Cost Engineering Journal, 2001 Monte Carlo Analysis: Ten Years of Experience, Dale E. Clark, Cost Engineering Journal, 2001 Risk-Based Cost Control for Construction, William J. Bender; Bilal M. Ayyub, AACE Transactions, 2001 Technical Risk Analysis of Multidisciplinary Projects, Giancarlo Guenzi, PE CCE; Giovanni Cannistra, PE CCE, AACE Transactions, 2003 Cost Risk Management in West Rail Project of Hong Kong, Chen Hua; S.W. Poon; F.F. Ng, AACE Transactions, 2004 Simplified Risk Assessment for Construction Clients, William J. Bender, PE, AACE Transactions, 2004 Integrating Risk Analysis With Cost Estimating Relationships, Peter Yu, AACE Document, 1999 Project Execution Risks in EPC/Turnkeys Contracts and the Project Managers Roles and Responsibilities, George E. Baram, P.Eng. CCE, AACE Transactions, 2005 Marrying Risk Register With Project Trending, John G. Zhao, AACE Transactions, 2005 Risk Analysis In Transit Project, Jeffrey Allen; Ali Touran, PE, AACE Transactions, 2005 Transferring Risk for Contaminated Facility Demolition, Kristyn Clayton; Jay Augustenborg, AACE Transactions, 2005 Multi-Attribute Utility Model for Quantifying Schedule and Cost Overruns in Pipe-line Projects, Ahmed Eldieb; Mohamed Marzouk; Moheeb Elsaid, AACE Transactions, 2005 The Application of Risk Management in Infrastructure Projects, Rashed Ali, CCE, Cost Engineering Journal, 2005 Simplified Approach to Probabilistic Cost Benefit Analysis: Architectural Lighting Example, Khaled Nassar; Abdullah AlMohaisen, Cost Engineering Journal, 2006

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78. Value-Based Risk Management (VBRM), Kevin M. Curran, Cost Engineering Journal, 2006 79. Managing Project Cost Risk, Dan Patterson, AACE Transactions, 2006 80. Cost-Time-Risk Diagram: Project Planning and Management, Peerapong Aramvereekul, PSP EVP; Daniel J. Seider, PE, Cost Engineering Journal, 2006 81. The Use of Historical Costs from the Rocky Flats Environmental Technology Site for Estimating Uncertainty for the Life-Cycle Cost of the US Department of Energy Environmental Management Program, Dan Melamed; Bryan Skokan, PE; Mathew Zenkowich; Dan Kocher, AACE Transactions, 2007 82. Schedule and Cost Risk Evaluation, Rashmi Prasad, AACE Transactions, 2007 Chapter VIII: Decision Analysis 1. Application Of Risk Analysis To Evaluation Of Research Projects, Warner J. G. Cudmore; J. B. Corns, AACE Transactions, 1972 2. A Methodology for the Economic Analysis of Component Redundancy, Gregory C. Opdycke, AACE Transactions, 1976 3. Decision Analysis, Dr. James M. Neil, PE CCE, AACE Transactions, 1991 4. Credible Projection Now Require Decision Analysis, JR Schuyler, Cost Engineering Journal, 1992 5. The Role of Risk Series: Understanding Risk, Michael W. Curran, Cost Engineering Journal, 1999 6. PRAM It or Walk Away, Neal S. Gray, AACE Transactions, 1998 7. Decision Support System for Pipeline Route Selection, Prasanta Kumar Dey; Soumitra S. Gupta, Cost Engineering Journal, 1999 8. Risk Management in Construction: An Approach for Contractors in South Korea, Soon Kim; Deepak Bajaj, Cost Engineering Journal, 2000 9. Decision Process for Value Management Proposals, Bryan R.A. McConachy, AACE Transactions, 2000 10. Cost Estimates: A Decision-Making Tool, Douglas W. Leo; Scott W. Knotowicz, AACE Transactions, 2001 11. Project Risk Management: A Combined Analytic Hierarchy Process and Decision Tree Approach, Prasanta Kumar Dey, Cost Engineering Journal, 2002 12. Notes From Your Technical Board: Easy (?) Decision-Making, Randy R. Rapp, PE CCE, Cost Engineering Journal, 2002 13. Knowledge Gaps Impacts on Risk Management, Iqbal Noor, PE CCE; Robert J. Martin Jr.; Joseph A. Treige, P.Eng., AACE Transactions, 2003 14. Risk Management in Building Projects, Dariusz Skorupka, AACE Transactions, 2003 15. Project Risk Identification and Management, Mark W. Cohen, PE; Glen R. Palmer, AACE Transactions, 2004 16. Risk Assessments: Value of the Process, Christopher P. Caddell, PE; Sherri R. Crepinsek; Gerald P. Klanac, AACE Transactions, 2004 17. Do We Truly Understand Project Risk?, Stephen L. Cabano, AACE Transactions, 2004 18. Neural Networks in the Risk Management of a Project, Dariusz Skorupka, AACE Transactions, 2004 19. Understanding Risk, Michael W. Curran, AACE Document, 1998 20. Managing Risk for Global Energy Projects, Nick J. Lavingia, PE, AACE Transactions, 2005 21. Implementing Risk Management on Transit Mega-Projects, Shawn L. Kildare; George P. Blank, AACE Transactions, 2006 22. Case Studies of the Decision-Making Process of Construction Clients, Anthony J. Mills, AACE Transactions, 2006 23. Schedule and Cost Risk: An Integrated Part of Risk Management Process in the Ormen Lange Project, Svein Olav Aslaksen; Gudmund Vigerust, AACE Transactions, 2007 24. Practical Risk Analysis, Waymon D. Lofton; Robert J. Coppo, AACE Transactions, 2007 Chapter IX: Economic Analysis 1. Monte Carlo Simulation - A Tool For Combating Uncertainty In Economic Analysis, G. L. Smith, AACE Transactions, 1966 2. Calculating The Calculated Risk, David Stuhlbarg, AACE Transactions, 1967 3. A Venture Analysis Of An Existing Business, Arthur L. Squyres, AACE Transactions, 1969

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4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. Risk Analysis: Now You Have One, What Do You Do With It?, Robert C. Doyle, Cost Engineering Journal, 1979 Impact of Business Environment on Project, Henry C. Thorne, CCE, AACE Transactions, 1981 Risk Management in Cost Engineering - Application of Utility Theory, Dr. Carl Wolf, CCE; Gordon S. Kalley, AACE Transactions, 1983 Coal Supply Risk Evaluation for Site Selection, Endre Mozes, CCE, AACE Transactions, 1988 "Bottom Line" Project Management, David H. Hamburger, AACE Transactions, 1988 Quick Sensitivity Analysis for Small Projects and Feasibility Studies, Dr. Ted G. Eschenbach, PE, AACE Transactions, 1992 The Economic Impact of Marketing Uncertainties, Henry C. Thorne, CCE, AACE Transactions, 1992 Feasibility Analyses, An Explanation! Feasibility Study, Model Feasibility Analysis, Risk Analysis, S West, Cost Engineering Journal, 1993 Economic Evaluation of Trenchless Technology, Robert H. Harbuck, AACE Transactions, 2000 Validity Calculus: A Novel Methodology To Manage High-Uncertainty Projects, Gideon Samid, PE, AACE Transactions, 2002 Using Independent Assessments to Improve Company Performance, Andrew S. Dowd Jr., AACE Transactions, 2003 Visual Display of Sensitivity and Risk, Maarten S.A. Vrijland, AACE Transactions, 2003 Quantifying Pavement Life Cycle Cost Inflation Uncertainty, Douglas D. Gransberg, PE CCE; James Diekmann, AACE Transactions, 2004

Chapter X: Escalation 1. Sharing the Risks of the Cost of Inflation, George Stukhart, AACE Transactions, 1982 2. Cost Engineering In A Setting Of High Inflation And Political Uncertainty: A Case Study Of A Major School Building Program In Brazil, JOG Brizola; PC Dinsmore; PLU Guerra, Cost Engineering Journal, 1993 Chapter XI: Human Factors 1. Graphic Presentations and How to Use Them Effectively in Cost Engineering, Walter H. Gage, CCE, AACE Transactions, 1980 2. Selling Your Estimate to Management, Alfred P. Sill, CCE, AACE Transactions, 1980 3. Learning to Live with Probable Outcomes, Lanny Golden, AACE Transactions, 1991 4. Neural Networks and the Identification and Estimation of Risk, Dr. R. A. McKim, PE, AACE Transactions, 1993 5. Risk Behavior and Construction Performance, Dr. R.A. McKim, PE, AACE Transactions, 1993 6. Cost Engineering: Making it Work, Arthur J. Hadnett, AACE Transactions, 1994 7. Corporate Risk Assessment in the Construction Industry: An Australian Perspective, Deepak Bajaj, AACE Transactions, 2001 8. Challenges of Implementing Risk Management Processes, Iqbal (Bob) Noor, PE CCE; Terry Joyner; Robert J. Martin Jr., AACE Transactions, 2002 9. The Risk Management of Construction Project's Consent Availability, Ottorino Maggiore Van Beest, AACE Transactions, 2003 10. Risk Management in IT Implementation: A Human Factor, Wayne S. Magro; William T. Kellow, AACE Transactions, 2004 11. Managing Design-Build Project Security Issues Risk, Gayla M. Badillo-Kwiatkowski; Douglas D. Gransberg, PE CCE, AACE Transactions, 2004 Chapter XII: Manufacturing 1. Vague Boundaries of Product and Customer Costs, Marko Seppanen; Jouni Lyly-Yrjanainen, AACE Transactions, 2002 Chapter XIII: Research & Development 2. Monte Carlo Simulation Applications In Research Project Evaluation, A. N. Defriece; G. E. Hamilton; C. E. Larson, AACE Transactions, 1967 3. Risk Management on Research and Development Projects, Steven W. Wageman, CCC, AACE Transactions, 2004 4. Fuel Cell Town: A Feasibility Study, Iftikhar Kamil Madni, CCE, AACE Transactions, 2006

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Chapter XIV: Safety & Health 1. A Cost-Effective Maintenance Program Through Risk Analysis, Tusar Bandyopadhyay; Prasanta K. Dey; Saumitro S. Gupta, AACE Transactions, 1997 2. Construction Industry Safety Measures, Nancy Terrero; Janet K. Yates, Cost Engineering Journal, 1997 3. A Risk-Based Maintenance Model for Cross-Country Pipelines, Prasanta K. Dey; Stephen O. Ogunlana; Saumitra S. Gupta; Mario T. Tabucanon, Cost Engineering Journal, 1998 Chapter XV: Schedule 1. Meaningful Risk Assessment, George T. Kraemer, AACE Transactions, 1976 2. A Retrospective Evaluation of a Probabilistic Schedule Analysis, Henry R. Block, CCD; Richard A. Mazzini, CCE, AACE Transactions, 1980 3. Planning & Scheduling an International Project, Mark Grinberg, AACE Transactions, 1981 4. The Role of Probability in Scheduling, Aaron Rose, CCE, AACE Transactions, 1981 5. Planning Risk Analysis in Offshore Projects: A Realistic Approach, Jean-Jacques Eldin; Jean-Claude Boudry, AACE Transactions, 1982 6. Impact Of Uncertain Resources On Project Schedule And Cost, HN Ahuja; V Arunachalam, Cost Engineering Journal, 1985 7. Schedule Risk Analysis Using Computer Simulation, Joseph J. Orczyk, PE; Dr. Donn Hancher, PE, AACE Transactions, 1987 8. A "PERT" Approach to Contractor Prequalification Analysis, Dr. Jeffrey S. Russell; Irtishad Ahmad, AACE Transactions, 1990 9. Assessing Project Cost and Schedule Risk, Edward W. Merrow; Mary Ellen Yarossi, AACE Transactions, 1990 10. A PERT Approach to Cost Risk Analysis, Pedro V. Aquino, AACE Transactions, 1992 11. Combining Risk Management And Resource Optimization In Project Management Software, OB Thomasen; L Butterfield, Cost Engineering Journal, 1993 12. Using Schedule Variance As The Only Measure Of Schedule Performance, Jim W. Short, CCC, Cost Engineering Journal, 1993 13. Project Scheduling Risk Assessment Using Monte Carlo Methods, Eric D. Finley, PE; Dr. Deborah J. Fisher, PE, Cost Engineering Journal, 1994 14. The Essence and Evolution of Earned Value, Quentin W. Fleming; Joel M. Koppelman, AACE Transactions, 1994 15. A Cost-Schedule Decision-Support System for Airport Renovation, Manar Shami, AACE Transactions, 1996 16. Activity Duration Quantification Under Uncertainty: Fuzzy Set Theory Application, Jong H. Ock, Cost Engineering Journal, 1996 17. Planning and Scheduling With Multiple Decision Points, Fritz Ehrenreich-Hansen, P.Eng. CCE; S.W. (Bill) Wilson, P.Eng., Cost Engineering Journal, 1997 18. Practical Applications of Probabilistic Scheduling, Dr. Gui Ponce de Leon, PE; John R. Knoke, PE, AACE Transactions, 1997 19. Risk Analysis for Environmental Remediation Projects: A Comprehensive Approach, James E. Diekmann, Cost Engineering Journal, 1997 20. Practical Risk Analysis in Scheduling, Abhi Basu, PE, AACE Transactions, 1998 21. Basic Techniques for Analyzing and Presenting Schedule Risk Analysis, Robert V. Wendling; Randal B. Lorance, PE, AACE Transactions, 1999 22. Seal Coat Constructability Program, Dr. Douglas D. Gransberg, PE CCE; Dr. Sanjaya P. Senadheera; Ilker Karaca, AACE Transactions, 1999 23. Project Time Risk Analysis Through Simulation, Prasanta K. Dey; Stephen O. Ogunlana, Cost Engineering Journal, 2001 24. Risk Management for Pharmaceutical Project Schedules, Alexia Nalewaik, CCE, AACE Transactions, 2005 25. The Benefits of Monte-Carlo Schedule Analysis, Jason Verschoor, P.Eng., AACE Transactions, 2005 26. Assessing Project Schedule Risk with Contingent Tasks by Spreadhsheet-Based Simulation, Li-Chung Chao; Sung-Lin Hsueh, Cost Engineering Journal, 2006

AACE Internationals Professional Practice Guide to Risk, Second Edition

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27. Project Risk Management Using Monte Carlo Simulation, Mohamed K. Khedr, PSP, AACE Transactions, 2006 28. The Value Added by Linking the Project Risk Register to Quantitative Schedule Risk Analysis, Emmanuel Mulambya, AACE Transactions, 2007 29. Risk Assessment For Scheduling Acceleration, Khalid S. Al-Gahtani, AACE Transactions, 2007 Chapter XVI: Technological Risk 1. Cost-Performance Analysis for Building Envelopes, Dr. Ramy El-Diasty, AACE Transactions, 1988 2. Cost Assessment of Emerging Construction Technologies, Thomas R. Napier; Dr. Luh-Maan Chang, AACE Transactions, 1988 3. Minimizing Risk in High Technology Programs, G. C. Belev, AACE Transactions, 1990 4. Enterprise IT Risk Management: A Case Study, Iqbal Noor; Richard B. Dillon; Ray Williams, AACE Transactions, 2001 Chapter XVII: Value Engineering 1. System Evaluation Combining Value Engineering and Cost Engineering Methods, W. C. Finch; F. D. Postula, AACE Transactions, 1980 2. Range Estimating in Value Engineering, William P. Rowland; Kevin M. Curran, AACE Transactions, 1991 3. Project Management Oversight: An Effective Risk Management Tool for EPC/Design-Build Contracts, George E. Baram, P.Eng. CCE, AACE Transactions, 2003 4. Risk Management Implementation and Analysis, Sean T. Regan, CCE, AACE Transactions, 2003 5. Improve Profitability Through Effective Project Management and Total Cost Management, Nick J. Lavingia PE, Cost Engineering Journal, 2003 6. Project Uncertainty Management, Maruboyina Ramgopal, CCE, Cost Engineering Journal, 2003 7. Identifying Risks and Opportunities Using EAC, H. Lance Stephenson, CCC, AACE Transactions, 2004 8. Value Engineering for Hazardous Waste Projects, Richard A. Selg, CCE, AACE Transactions, 2006 Author Index Chronological Index About the Editor