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Solutions for Troubled Hotel Assets
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Overview
• Assess magnitude of distress in U.S. hotel market
• Analyze impact on hotel valuations
• Provide case study of a turnaround effort
• Size up prospects for loan modifications vs. foreclosure
• Suggest do’s and don’ts for borrowers
• Discuss outlook for moribund property sales market
• Identify change agents to stem tide of distress
• Outline lessons learned from ―great recession‖
• Q&A session
Today’s Panel
Steve Van Mark Elliott
President and CEO Sr. Managing Director
Prism Hotels & Resorts Hodges Ward Elliott
Stephen Peca
Director, Senior Credit Consultant
Moody’s Analytics
Question 1
Steve Van
President and CEO
Prism Hotels & Resorts
Big ADR Changes Fuel NOI Swings
Quantification
50,000 hotel loans in US
NOI down 39.1%
11.4% default = more than 5,000
Estimates 25% to 100%= 12,500 plus
Maturity volume of loans: 2010 and 11
No loans today
Question 2
Mark Elliott
Sr. Managing Director
Hodges Ward Elliott
U.S. Overview
Distress Dominates the Marketplace
title here
Stephen Peca
Director, Senior Credit Consultant
Moody’s Analytics
Emerging Patterns in Distress Situations
Stephen P. Peca
CPA, MRICS
Senior Credit Consultant
Moody’s Analytics Training
Moody's RevPAR Index by Chain Scale, 1998-2008 Moody's RevPAR Index
Among Top 25 US Metro Areas, Index to 1998
Budget Economy Midprice Upscale Luxury
MOODY’S ANALYTICS
Revenues per Available Room, Index to 1998
120
Lowest Revenue per Available Room Index • Strategic solutions
Detroit 98
for measuring and
110
managing risk
New Orleans 100
• Best practices
100 Dallas 101 in credit, economics
Highest Revenue per Available Room Index and financial risk
90
Oahu, Hawaii 156 management
Miami 160
• Multidisciplinary
80 approaches
Anaheim-Santa Ana 163
to compete in an
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Source: Moody's Investors Service and Smith Travel Research, April 2009.
evolving
marketplace
Stephen Rushmore
President & Founder
HVS International
Valuation Challenges
© 2009 HVS
17
Market vs. Liquidation Value
Market Value
Liquidation Value
• Willing Seller • Unwilling Seller – facing
foreclosure/bankruptcy
• Neither Buyer nor • Seller under extreme
Seller under pressure pressure to sell
to buy or sell
• Sufficient time to • Limited time to
expose the hotel to all adequately market and
market participants sell hotel
o Current adequate o Inadequate marketing
marketing time: 1-2 time: less than 1 year
years • Discount 20-50% below
market value
© 2009 HVS
18
Valuation
Present
Net Income Total Cash Worth of
Available for Total Annual Plus: Refi/Sales Flow to $1 at Discounted
Year Debt Service Debt Service Proceeds Equity 19% Cash Flow
2009 $6,675 $3,225 $3,450 0.8403 $2,988
2010 $5,556 $3,225 $2,331 0.7062 $1,646
2011 $5,181 $3,225 $1,956 0.5934 $1,161
2012 $5,728 $3,225 $41,104 $43,606 0.4987 $21,745
2013 $7,210 $6,442 $768 0.4195 $322
2014 $9,433 $6,442 $2,991 0.3521 $1,053
2015 $11,593 $6,442 $5,498 0.2960 $1,524
2016 $11,940 $6,442 $5,856 0.2487 $1,367
2017 $12,298 $6,442 $6,225 0.2090 $1,224
2018 $12,667 $6,442 $60,271 $66,496 0.1756 $11,676
Value of Equity
Component $44,619
Plus: Value of Initial
Mortgage $36,369
Total Property Value $80,998
Source: HVS
© 2009 HVS
19
Question 5
Stephen Rushmore
President & Founder
HVS International
Value Trend for a Typical U.S. Hotel
1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992
Value Per Room $37,000 $37,000 $38,000 $32,000 $27,000 $30,000
Percent Change 0.0% 2.7% -15.8% -15.6% 11.1%
Per-Room Change $0 $1,000 -$6,000 -$5,000 $3,000
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998
Value Per Room $33,000 $37,000 $45,000 $50,000 $59,000 $60,000
Percent Change 10.0% 12.1% 21.6% 11.1% 18.0% 1.7%
Per-Room Change $3,000 $4,000 $8,000 $5,000 $9,000 $1,000
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Value Per Room $61,000 $69,000 $52,000 $52,000 $51,000 $65,000
Percent Change 1.7% 13.1% -24.6% 0.0% -1.9% 27.5%
Per-Room Change $1,000 $8,000 -$17,000 $0 -$1,000 $14,000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Value Per Room $82,000 $100,000 $95,000 $81,000 $55,000 $50,000
Percent Change 26.2% 22.0% -5.0% -14.7% -32.1% -9.2%
Per-Room Change $17,000 $18,000 -$5,000 -$14,000 -$26,000 -$5,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Value Per Room $57,000 $75,000 $93,000 $103,000 $112,000
Percent Change 14.0% 31.6% 24.0% 10.8% 8.6%
Per-Room Change $7,000 $18,000 $18,000 $10,000 $9,000
Source: HVS
© 2009 HVS
21
Question 6
Stephen Rushmore
President & Founder
HVS International
Historical Change of Rate
Steve Van
President and CEO
Prism Hotels & Resorts
Distressed Hotel Life Cycle
Transferred into Special Servicing
Special Servicer decides to take back
Receiver
◦ Agreed
◦ Contested
Takeover management
◦ First day: control cash, life safety, employees,
franchisor
◦ Begin turn around
Operate hotel
Sell hotel
Question 8
Steve Van
President and CEO
Prism Hotels & Resorts
CMBS v Whole Loan
REMIC Rules Loan Agreement
◦ No reposition Strength of lender
Pooling and Servicing
Agreement FDIC?
B piece
Question 9
As a seasoned attorney who has
counseled owners, developers,
operators and banks on loan workouts
and restructurings, do you believe the
lion’s share of troubled mortgages today
will be successfully modified or will
these properties end up in foreclosure?
Michael E. Feldman
Partner and Co-Chair,
Lodging & Gaming Practice Group
Proskauer Rose LLP
Solutions for Troubled Hotel Assets
Loan modification or foreclosure
— Are 1990-91 and the RTC guidelines applicable to 2009, 2010
and 2011?
— Date of financing – 2005 and beyond
— Availability of refinancing
— New capital
Question 10
Can you provide a case study of a
loan workout, highlighting the
problem and solution, which
illustrates the challenges facing
hotel borrowers and lenders today?
Michael E. Feldman
Partner and Co-Chair,
Lodging & Gaming Practice Group
Proskauer Rose LLP
Solutions for Troubled Hotel Assets
Workouts
— Very few at present
— Banks are generally holding off
Banks reluctant to take further write-downs
— Timing
— Additional equity or recourse loans
Question 11
Michael E. Feldman
Partner and Co-Chair,
Lodging & Gaming Practice Group
Proskauer Rose LLP
Solutions for Troubled Hotel Assets
Do’s and Dont’s
— Do’s
Be upfront with your lender
Provide all requested information
Diligently try to refinance maturing loans
Be flexible
— Dont’s
Bankruptcy is likely not the ultimate weapon
— Consider all aspects, including personal guarantees
— Mixed-use hotel projects
Don’t forget the do’s
Question 12
Michael E. Feldman
Partner and Co-Chair,
Lodging & Gaming Practice Group
Proskauer Rose LLP
Solutions for Troubled Hotel Assets
M&A Activity
— Buyer-seller-bid-ask must narrow
— Portfolio purchases
Restrictions on competitively flagged properties
Players back in the market
— Sovereign wealth funds
— Private equity funds
— Available debt
Question 13
Mark Elliott
Sr. Managing Director
Hodges Ward Elliott
U.S. Overview
title ishere
Pricing pressured by pending operating improvements and revenue increases
.600
.500
.400
.300
.200
.100
.000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Mark Elliott
Sr. Managing Director
Hodges Ward Elliott
Where are we in the cycle?
titleone
When here
door shuts, another opens...
$12,000,000,000
Sell
The market is in a similar position $10,000,000,000
growth and
tight credit.
Host Hotels & Resorts Inc. is building a war chest for potential distressed acquisitions despite the
likelihood of steep second-quarter revenue declines.
• Deutsche Bank expects Host to report a 22.7 percent drop in Q2’09 RevPAR.
• Cost cuts are likely to beat expectations while cost savings will become more difficult in the
second half of the year.
• Despite the gloomy forecast, Host is likely to look to buy properties at distressed prices.
“In our view, (Host) will be increasingly well positioned to take advantage of
distressed one-off situations… so we expect (Host) to continue to build dry
powder (for buying opportunities”). - Deutsche Bank
Question 15
Stephen Peca
Director, Senior Credit Consultant
Moody’s Analytics
Indicators of Change
Stephen P. Peca
CPA, MRICS
Average Occupancy by Chain Scale, 2007-2013 Forecast
Senior Credit Consultant
Budget Economy Midprice Upscale Luxury Moody’s Analytics Training
80%
MOODY’S ANALYTICS
• Strategic solutions
70% for measuring and
managing risk
60%
• Best practices
in credit, economics
and financial risk
50% management
• Multidisciplinary
40% approaches
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 to compete in an
evolving
Source: Moody's Analytics and Smith Travel Research, April 2009.
marketplace
Stephen Peca
Director, Senior Credit Consultant
Moody’s Analytics
Lessons Learned from the Current
Environment
»Do not overlook the basics
- Use conservative assumptions
- Apply more break-even scenarios
»Do not get caught up in the ―irrational exuberance‖
- Focus more on major markets Stephen P. Peca
CPA, MRICS
- Concentrate on operational flexibility Senior Credit Consultant
Moody’s Analytics Training
-30% approaches
to compete in an
1997Q1
1998Q1
1999Q1
2000Q1
2001Q1
2002Q1
2003Q1
2004Q1
2005Q1
2006Q1
2007Q1
2008Q1
2009Q1
2010Q1
2011Q1
2012Q1
2013Q1
evolving
marketplace
Source: Moody's Analytics Economy.com, Industry Forecasts Aug 2009.
Stephen Peca
Director, Senior Credit Consultant
Moody’s Analytics
Thank you for attending!
Solutions for Troubled Hotel Assets