Mathematics - Probability

In our day-to-day life, we sometimes make the following statements: It may be foggy today. The train may reach in time. Ram is likely to get good marks in his examination. Probably, he will come today.

The usage of terms of the type may, likely or probably convey the meaning that the event, we are talking about, is not certain to occur. Under the head of probability, we will study the measure of this uncertainty under given condition. If we go by the dictionary meaning of the word probable it says likely though not certain. The word probability has been derived from the same and is intended to be used to have a measure of uncertainty in making statements or taking decisions in such situations. Thus, probability measures the degree of uncertainty involved and hence measures the degree of certainty of occurrence of events. Interestingly, the origin of the theory of probability has been the study of games of chance and is connected with events like tossing a coin, throwing a die, selecting a card at random from a well shuffled pack of cards. We assume that the learner is already familiar with: the terms connected with coin-head and tail the terms connected with a dice the dots on six faces as (, , , , , ) four fundamental operations on numbers terminology connected with playing cards

PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE OF AN EVENT The probability P(E) of occurrence of an event E is defined as P(E) =

Thus, the probability of occurrence of a head (H) when a coin is tossed is 1 / 2 . Suppose there are m cases (outcomes) which are favourable to an event capital X and n is the total number of outcomes, then the probability of occurrence of the event X is given by P(X) = m/n We know that mn ...(i) ...(ii)

iQue ideas / 2013 / Mathematics

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Mathematics - Probability
From (i) and (ii), we can say that 0 P(X) 1 When do we say that the probability of occurrence of event x is zero ? When there is no outcome favourable to the event. Such an event is called an Impossible event. For example getting a number greater than 6 when a die is thrown once is an impossible event. In the case, when P(X) = 1, all the possible out comes are favourable to the event. In that case, the event is said to be a sure event. For example, getting a number less than 7, when a die is thrown once is a sure event. Let us now introduce another concept, called probability of non-occurrence of an event. If P(X) = m/n, then there are (n m) outcomes which are not favourable to the occurrence of X. Then the probability of non-occurrence of the event X, called P ( X ) is given by P(X ) =

nm n m m = = 1 = 1 P( X ) n n n n

i.e., the probability of non-occurrence of an event equals [1 Probability of occurrence of the event] Note: X is called an event complementary to event X. Let us now take some examples to illustrate. Example: Write the sample space if a die is thrown once. Solution: We know that when a die is thrown once, the likely outcomes are 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6. This is the required sample space. Example: 3 males and 4 females appear for an interview, of which one candidate is to be selected. Write the sample space. Solution: Let the three male candidates be denoted by M1, M2, M3 and four female candidates be denoted by F1, F2, F3 and F4. The sample space consists of M1, M2, M3, F1, F2, F3, F4. Example: Find the probability of occurrence of a tail (T) when an unbiased coin is tossed once. Solution: When a coin is tossed once, the sample space is H, T There is only one outcome favourable to a tail (T). The probability of occurrence of a tail = 1/2 Example: A die is tossed once, find the probability of occurrence of (i) 2 (ii) an even number

Solution: When a die is tossed, the sample space is 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6

iQue ideas / 2013 / Mathematics

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Mathematics - Probability
(i) Probability of occurrence of 2, i.e., P(2)= 1/6 because only one outcome is favourable to the event out of 6 possible outcomes. (ii) Probability of occurrence of an even number The even numbers are 2, 4, 6 The number of favourable outcomes = 3 P (even number) = 3/6 =1/2 Example: Find the probability of getting an odd number when a die is tossed once. Solution: The number of odd numbers is 3 (1, 3, 5 are odd numbers) If E is the event, called, occurrence of an odd number, then P(E)= 3/6 =1/2 You could have found P(E) as P(E) = 1 P (even number) = 11/2 = 1/2 Example: In case of Example 2; find the probability of selection of a (i) male candidate (ii) female candidate Solution: Total number of candidates = 7 Numbers of males = 3 (i) P (selection of a male candidate) = 3/7 (ii) P (selection of a female candidate) = 4/7 Alternatively P (selection of female candidate) = 1 P (selection of a male candidate) = 1 3/7 = 4/7

iQue ideas / 2013 / Mathematics

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