mode for the past few years. Since FY 2009/10 the company has invested a total of c.350m in capex. Most of this investment has been in expanding capacity at the companys plants in China (Shanghai and Chongqing) for the production of high density interconnection printed circuit boards (HDI PCBs). These HDI PCBs are used in smartphones and mobile devices such as tablets and iPods. Demand remained strong between FY 2010/11 and FY 2012/13, leading to 14% revenue CAGR over the past three years. However, price erosion due to increased supply from competitors and some stabilisation in demand for mobile devices lead us to expect more subdued revenue growth of 4% p.a. for the next three years. Higher installed capacity will depress margins and we expect operating margins of 5-6% over FY 2013-15 versus the peak margin of 10% achieved in FY 2011. Management has announced additional investment of around 350m to enter the integrated circuit (IC) substrate market in the next three years. Higher leverage (net debt of around 2.5x EBITDA) has led us to lower our FY 2014 estimates. Next investment round: The growth cycle in the PCB market seems to be over. AT&S was able to capitalise on the last cycle due to its early investment in what was then a new area, HDI. In order to keep ahead of the competition and drive the next wave of growth, management now intends to invest c.350m over the next three years to build capacity for IC substrates. The plant will be operational from around 2017 and is expected to generate annual revenues of 300m with 20-25% gross margins. Debt creeping up: We have reduced our earnings estimates on the back of a higher interest expense assumption, itself due to the greaterthan-expected amount of debt which the company is taking on to finance its next wave of investments. Valuation: We are cutting our price target to 6.6 and maintain a Hold recommendation. Our new price target is based on 12x FY14E EPS; this is lower than for peers, to reflect the deterioration in the balance sheet and in the supply-demand balance in the industry.
Y/E 31.03., EURm Sales EBITDA EBIT Net profit Y/E net debt (net cash) EPS (reported) EPS (recurring) CPS DPS Gross margin EBITDA margin EBIT margin Dividend yield ROCE EV/sales EV/EBITDA EV/EBIT P/E Cash flow RoEV Source: Company data, Berenberg Bank 2011 488 96 47 35 194 1.50 1.62 3.45 0.15 18.4% 19.7% 9.5% 1.2% 10.5% 1.0 5.3 11.0 7.7 6.6% 2012 514 103 42 27 243 1.14 1.14 3.67 0.11 16.2% 20.1% 8.2% 1.4% 7.9% 0.9 4.4 10.9 7.2 6.8% 2013E 548 114 27 9 234 0.37 0.37 4.11 0.04 14.0% 20.8% 5.0% 0.5% 4.6% 0.8 3.7 15.5 19.2 4.9% 2014E 571 118 31 13 189 0.55 0.55 4.32 0.06 13.5% 20.7% 5.4% 0.8% 5.1% 0.7 3.2 12.4 12.8 6.2% 2015E 591 109 29 9 155 0.39 0.39 3.95 0.05 13.0% 18.5% 4.8% 0.7% 4.7% 0.6 3.1 12.0 17.9 5.7%
Hold
EUR 6.80
EUR 6.60
28/03/2013 Frankfurt Close Market cap EUR 164m Reuters ATSV.F Bloomberg ATS AV Changes made in this note Rating Hold (no change) Price target EUR 6.60 (9.00) Chg
2013e 2014e 2015e old % old % old % 529 3.6 551 3.6 571 3.6 Sales 25.05 9.3 28.65 7.1 26.64 7.5 EBIT 0.60 -39.0 0.66 -15.9 0.46 -15.1 EPS Source: Berenberg Bank estimates
Share data
23 424 20,634
Performance data
High 52 weeks (EUR) 10 Low 52 weeks (EUR) 6 Relative performance to SXXP TecDAX 1 month -8.4 % -9.6 % 3 months -13.1 % -26.7 % 12 months -31.3 % -40.5 %
Key data
Price/book value Net gearing CAGR sales 2012-2015 CAGR EPS 2012-2015 0.5 78.3 % 4.8 % -29.7 %
Business activities:
Producer of printed circuit boards for the telecommunications, computer, automotive and industrial sectors, among others.
Non-institutional shareholders:
Hannes Andorsch 21.5% Willlibald Doerflinger 17.66% Treasury 9.95%
AT&S AG
Small/Mid-Cap: Technology Hardware
Between FY 2009/10 and FY 2012/13 (March year-end), revenues grew by around 14% CAGR as AT&S was able to meet demand by consistently adding capacity. In FY 2010/11 and FY 2011/12, the company was operating at almost full capacity and achieved peak operating margins of 8-10%. However, now competition has increased in the HDI sector and growth rates for smartphones are gradually slowing. Consequently over the next three years we are modelling around 4% CAGR growth in revenues (FY 2013-15). The company added capacity in China, which will now be hard to utilise fully; consequently, we expect gross margins of around 14% for the next three years and operating margins of 5%, compared to an average for the latter of 8% in the past three years. Management is aware of this cycle and is preparing for the next round of investments. It has announced plans to
AT&S AG
Small/Mid-Cap: Technology Hardware
invest around 350m over the next three years to enter the IC substrate market. AT&S revenue and revenue growth
IC substrate investment plan AT&S has announced an ambitious plan to enter the IC substrate market. The company has signed a deal with a leading US-based global semiconductor company which produces processors. The US company is providing AT&S with the intellectual property for IC production and intends to purchase the substrates from AT&S when the production plant is up and running. IC substrates serve as a connection between semiconductors and printed circuit boards through a conductive network of traces and holes. IC substrates support critical functions including circuit support and protection, heat dissipation, and signal and power distribution. IC substrates represent the highest level of miniaturisation in PCB manufacturing and the manufacturing process has many similarities with that for semiconductors. Conductor widths can be as low as 50 micrometres. The IC substrate plant will be built in Chongqeng, alongside the previous plant and AT&S expects the business segment to start generating revenues by mid 2016.
AT&S AG
Small/Mid-Cap: Technology Hardware
IC Substrate
The global market for IC substrates is expected to be $8.6bn a year, with the main players based in Taiwan and Mainland China. Taiwans IC packaging and testing industry has a 56% share of the global market. AT&S management believes the IC substrate market will grow by around 6.5% CAGR to reach $11bn by 2016. Since the competition is less intense in this highend market segment, the company expects to generate annual revenues of around $300m and achieve around 20-25% gross margins. This is a very bold plan since it requires significant capex for the next three years. Also, while AT&S will be required to invest for three years, it will only generate revenues when the plant is complete. Management needs to raise around $300m for this project, which will be a tough task. At the moment, the company is using short-term credit lines to start the investment. However, over time, we expect management to tap the equity and debt markets to change the capital structure of the balance sheet. IC substrate market development
14 12
10 8 6 4 2 0 8.6
CAGR: 6.5%
11.8
$m
2011
Market Development
2016
AT&S AG
Small/Mid-Cap: Technology Hardware
Financial estimates: Berenberg versus consensus Our revenue estimates are in line with consensus but we are more cautious about operating margins next year due to increased competition. Also, our earnings estimates are significantly lower due to higher interest expense assumptions.
Financial estimates: Berenberg vs consensus 2013E (tsd) Revenue EBIT EBIT margin Net income (adj.) EPS (adj.) Berenberg 548 27 9% 9 0.37 Consensus 533 27 6% 12 0.52 Delta 3% 0% 3% -29% -30% Berenberg 571 31 8% 13 0.55 2014E Consensus 555 37 7% 21 0.88 Delta 3% -18% 3% -37% -37%
Valuation: PE multiple We value AT&S at a target multiple of 12x 2014 expected earnings. We use Unimicron as the closest peer to AT&S. Unimicron is trading on around 14x next year earnings and historically we have valued AT&S using broadly the same target multiple. However, given the risks associated with new investment plans and the tougher balance between demand and supply that lies ahead for the industry, we are now using a 12x PE multiple to factor in a discount. We maintain our Hold recommendation. PE Chart
Source: Bloomberg
AT&S AG
Small/Mid-Cap: Technology Hardware
AUSTRIA TECHNOLOGIE & SYSTEM TRIPOD TECHNOLOGY CORP UNIMICRON TECHNOLOGY CORP NAN YA PRINTED CIRCUIT BOARD KINSUS INTERCONNECT TECH SILITECH TECHNOLOGY CORP COMPEQ MANUFACTURING CO LTD
Mean Median
Source: Bloomberg Estimates as of 25th March 2013
0.8 0.8
0.8 0.7
4.6 4.5
4.2 4.2
13.9 11.5
11.3 10.6
AT&S AG
Small/Mid-Cap: Technology Hardware
Financials
Profit and loss account
Year-end March (m) Sales Cost of sales Gross profit Sales and marketing General and administration Research and development Other operating income Other operating expenses Unusual or infrequent items EBITDA Depreciation EBITA Amortisation of goodwill Amortisation of intangible assets Impairment charges EBIT Interest income Interest expenses Other financial result Financial result Income on ordinary activities before taxes Extraordinary income/loss EBT Taxes Net income from continuing operations Income from discontinued operations (net of tax) Net income Minority interest Net income (net of minority interest) Source: Company data, Berenberg Bank estimates 2011 488 398 90 25 22 0 0 -6 -3 96 49 47 0 0 0 47 6 9 0 -3 43 0 43 8 35 0 35 0 35 2012 514 431 83 26 22 0 0 -6 0 103 61 42 0 0 0 42 3 13 0 -10 32 0 32 6 27 0 27 0 27 2013e 548 471 77 30 19 0 0 0 0 114 86 27 0 0 0 27 0 17 0 -17 10 0 10 2 9 0 9 0 9 2014e 571 494 77 31 20 0 0 -5 0 118 88 31 0 0 0 31 0 15 0 -15 16 0 16 3 13 0 13 0 13 2015e 591 514 77 33 21 0 0 -5 0 109 81 29 0 0 0 29 0 15 0 -15 14 2 16 4 11 0 11 2 9
AT&S AG
Small/Mid-Cap: Technology Hardware
Balance sheet
Year-end March (m) Intangible assets Property, plant and equipment Financial assets Fixed assets Inventories Accounts receivable Other current assets Liquid assets Deferred taxes Other accruals Current assets TOTAL Shareholders' equity Minority interest Long-term debt Pensions provisions Other provisions Non-current liabilities Short-term debt Accounts payable Advance payments Other liabilities Deferred taxes Other accruals Current liabilities TOTAL Source: Company data, Berenberg Bank estimates 2011 3 386 16 404 53 100 0 18 0 0 172 575 229 0 96 24 6 126 116 97 0 6 0 0 219 575 2012 2 454 26 483 65 115 0 30 1 0 212 695 283 0 189 25 9 223 84 98 0 6 0 0 188 695 2013e 2 461 30 493 58 120 0 31 1 0 210 704 299 0 140 25 12 177 125 97 0 6 0 0 228 704 2014e 2 425 30 457 61 125 0 73 1 0 261 718 311 0 138 25 12 175 125 101 0 6 0 0 232 718 2015e 2 397 30 430 63 130 0 106 1 0 300 730 321 0 136 25 12 173 125 106 0 6 0 0 237 730
AT&S AG
Small/Mid-Cap: Technology Hardware
AT&S AG
Small/Mid-Cap: Technology Hardware
+44 (0) 20 3207 7882 +44 (0) 20 3207 7917 +44 (0) 20 3465 2636 +44 (0) 20 3207 7920
GENERAL RETAIL & LUXURY GOODS Bassel Choughari +44 (0) 20 3465 2675 John Guy +44 (0) 20 3465 2674 HEALTHCARE Scott Bardo Alistair Campbell Charles Cooper Louise Hinds Adrian Howd Tom Jones
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HOUSEHOLD & PERSONAL CARE Seth Peterson +44 (0) 20 3207 7891 Andrew Steele +44 (0) 20 3207 7926 INSURANCE Tom Carstairs Peter Eliot Kai Mueller Matthew Preston Sami Taipalus MEDIA Robert Berg Emma Coulby Laura Janssens Sarah Simon
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+44 (0) 20 3207 7861 +44 (0) 20 3207 7937 +44 (0) 20 3207 7818 +44 (0) 20 3207 7887
Sales
Specialist Sales CONSUMER Rupert Trotter INSURANCE Trevor Moss LONDON Miel Bakker John von Berenberg-Consbruch Ronald Bernette Matt Chawner Toby Flaux Sean Heath David Hogg Ben Hutton James Matthews David Mortlock Peter Nichols George Smibert Max von Doetinchem Paul Walker E-mail: firstname.lastname@berenberg.com; Internet www.berenberg.de +44 (0) 20 3207 7815 HEALTHCARE Frazer Hall TECHNOLOGY Jean Beaubois HAMBURG Susette Mantzel Marco Weiss PARIS Christophe Choquart Dalila Farigoule Clmence La Clavire-Peyraud Olivier Thibert ZURICH Stephan Hofer Carsten Kinder Gianni Lavigna Benjamin Stillfried CRM FRANKFURT Michael Brauburger Nina Buechs Andr Grosskurth Boris Koegel Joachim Kopp +49 (0) 69 91 30 90 741 +49 (0) 69 91 30 90 735 +49 (0) 69 91 30 90 734 +49 (0) 69 91 30 90 740 +49 (0) 69 91 30 90 742 LONDON Greg Swallow Laura Cooper CORPORATE ACCESS LONDON Patricia Nehring +44 (0) 20 3207 7833 +44 (0) 20 3207 7806 +44 (0) 20 3207 7875 UTILITIES Benita Barretto INDUSTRIALS Chris Armstrong Kaj Alftan Sales Trading HAMBURG Paul Dontenwill Christian Endras Gregor Labahn Chris McKeand Fin Schaffer Lars Schwartau Marvin Schweden Tim Storm Philipp Wiechmann LONDON Stewart Cook Simon Messman Stephen O'Donohoe PARIS Sylvain Granjoux EVENTS LONDON Natalie Meech Charlotte Kilby Charlotte Reeves Hannah Whitehead +44 (0) 20 3207 7829
+44 (0) 20 3207 7808 +44 (0) 20 3207 7805 +44 (0) 20 3207 7828 +44 (0) 20 3207 7847 +44 (0) 20 3465 2745 +44 (0) 20 3465 2742 +44 (0) 20 3465 2628 +44 (0) 20 3207 7804 +44 (0) 20 3207 7807 +44 (0) 20 3207 7850 +44 (0) 20 3207 7810 +44 (0) 20 3207 7911 +44 (0) 20 3207 7826 +44 (0) 20 3465 2632
+33 (0) 1 5844 9508 +33 (0) 1 5844 9510 +33 (0) 1 5844 9521 +33 (0) 1 5844 9512
+49 (0) 40 350 60 563 +49 (0) 40 350 60 359 +49 (0) 40 350 60 571 +49 (0) 40 350 60 798 +49 (0) 40 350 60 596 +49 (0) 40 350 60 450 +49 (0) 40 350 60 576 +49 (0) 40 350 60 415 +49 (0) 40 350 60 346
+41 (0) 44 283 2029 +41 (0) 44 283 2024 +41 (0) 44 283 2038 +41 (0) 44 283 2033
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+44 (0) 20 3207 7831 +44 (0) 20 3207 7832 +44 (0) 20 3465 2671 +44 (0) 20 3207 7922
US Sales
BERENBERG CAPITAL MARKETS LLC Member FINRA & SIPC Andrew Holder Colin Andrade Cathal Carroll Burr Clark Julie Doherty +1 (617) 292 8222 +1 (617) 292 8230 +1 (646) 445 7206 +1 (617) 292 8282 +1 (617) 292 8228
E-mail: firstname.lastname@berenberg-us.com Kelleigh Faldi Kieran O'Sullivan Emily Mouret Jonathan Saxon +1 (617) 292 8288 +1 (617) 292 8292 +1 (646) 445 7204 +1 (646) 445 7202
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AT&S AG
Small/Mid-Cap: Technology Hardware
Please note that the use of this research report is subject to the conditions and restrictions set forth in the General investment-related disclosures and the Legal disclaimer at the end of this document. For analyst certification and remarks regarding foreign investors and country-specific disclosures, please refer to the respective paragraph at the end of this document.
Disclosures in respect of section 34b of the German Securities Trading Act (Wertpapierhandelsgesetz WpHG)
Company AT&S AG (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) Disclosures 3
Berenberg Bank or its affiliate(s) was Lead Manager or Co-Lead Manager over the previous 12 months of a public offering of this company. Berenberg Bank acts as Designated Sponsor for this company. Over the previous 12 months, Berenberg Bank and/or its affiliate(s) has effected an agreement with this company for investment banking services or received compensation or a promise to pay from this company for investment banking services. Berenberg Bank and/or its affiliate(s) holds 5% or more of the share capital of this company. Berenberg Bank holds a trading position in shares of this company. Berenberg Bank and/or its affiliate(s) holds a net short position of 1% or more of the share capital of this company, calculated by methods required by German law as of the last trading day of the past month.
Historical price target and rating changes for AT&S AG in the last 12 months (full coverage) Date 18 January 13 02 April 13 Price target - EUR 9.00 6.60 Rating Hold Hold Initiation of coverage 03 February 11
Berenberg distribution of ratings and in proportion to investment banking services Buy Sell Hold 44.47 % 17.71 % 37.83 % 63.33 % 6.67 % 30.00 %
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AT&S AG
Small/Mid-Cap: Technology Hardware
Legal disclaimer
This document has been prepared by Berenberg Bank. This document does not claim completeness regarding all the information on the stocks, stock markets or developments referred to in it. On no account should the document be regarded as a substitute for the recipient procuring information for himself/herself or exercising his/her own judgements. The document has been produced for information purposes for institutional clients or market professionals. Private customers, into whose possession this document comes, should discuss possible investment decisions with their customer service officer as differing views and opinions may exist with regard to the stocks referred to in this document. This document is not a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell the mentioned stock. The document may include certain descriptions, statements, estimates, and conclusions underlining potential market and company development. These reflect assumptions, which may turn out to be incorrect. Berenberg Bank and/or its employees accept no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss or damages of any kind arising out of the use of this document or any part of its content. Berenberg Bank and/or its employees may hold, buy or sell positions in any securities mentioned in this document, derivatives thereon or related financial products. Berenberg Bank and/or its employees may underwrite issues for any securities mentioned in this document, derivatives thereon or related financial products or seek to perform capital market or underwriting services.
Analyst certification
I, Ali Farid Khwaja, CFA, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about any and all of the subject securities or issuers discussed herein. In addition, I hereby certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this research report, nor is it tied to any specific investment banking transaction performed by Berenberg Bank or its affiliates.
The preparation of this document is subject to regulation by German law. The distribution of this document in other jurisdictions may be restricted by law, and persons into whose possession this document comes should inform themselves about, and observe, any such restrictions.
United Kingdom
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AT&S AG
Small/Mid-Cap: Technology Hardware
This document has been prepared exclusively by Berenberg Bank. Although Berenberg Capital Markets LLC, an affiliate of Berenberg Bank and registered US broker-dealer, distributes this document to certain customers, Berenberg Capital Markets LLC does not provide input into its contents, nor does this document constitute research of Berenberg Capital Markets LLC. In addition, this document is meant exclusively for institutional investors and market professionals, but not for private customers. It is not for distribution to or the use of private investors or private customers. This document is classified as objective for the purposes of FINRA rules. Please contact Berenberg Capital Markets LLC (+1 617.292.8200), if you require additional information.
Disclosures
no disclosures
Berenberg Capital Markets LLC owned 1% or more of the outstanding shares of any class of the subject company by the end of the prior month.* Over the previous 12 months, Berenberg Capital Markets LLC has managed or co-managed any public offering for the subject company.* Berenberg Capital Markets LLC is making a market in the subject securities at the time of the report. Berenberg Capital Markets LLC received compensation for investment banking services in the past 12 months, or expects to receive such compensation in the next 3 months.* There is another potential conflict of interest of the analyst or Berenberg Capital Markets LLC, of which the analyst knows or has reason to know at the time of publication of this research report.
* For disclosures regarding affiliates of Berenberg Capital Markets LLC please refer to the Disclosures in respect of section 34b of the German Securities Trading Act (Wertpapierhandelsgesetz WpHG) section above.
Copyright
Berenberg Bank reserves all the rights in this document. No part of the document or its content may be rewritten, copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without Berenberg Banks prior written consent. June 2012 Berenberg Bank
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