Monitoring of Climate Change Risk Impacts of Sea Level Rise on Groundwater and Agriculture in the Nile Delta

ARC
CLAC

FAO

SWERI

CCIC

Agriculture Fac., Ain Shams University

The National Authority for Remote Sensing and Space Sciences (NARSS) Coastal Research Institute (CoRI)

FACTS ABOUT EGYPT

LOCATION BOUNDARIES : : Northeast Africa Mediterranean Sudan Lybya and Chad Palastine
(North) (South) (West) (East)

TOTAL AREA : INHABITED AREA : CULTIVATED AREA : WATER RESOURCES :

One million square kilometer 100 000 square kilometer Ten million acers (40 000 km2) River Nile 55.5 bcm/year (95% of the budget) Rainfall + Ground water + Desalination (5% of the budget)

Some indicators of the current status of Egypts agricultural sector*

Indicators
Agricultural water (BCM) Agricultural work-force (m) Percentage of small holdings (less than 5 fed.) Per capita share of cultivated land (fed) Per capita share of water (CM) Irrigation water application efficiency (%) Unit water (1000m3) share in export (in US$) Unit labors share in export (US$) Unit labors share in production (LE)
Estimated average (2007)

58 6.4 (30%) 42 0.12 805 50 14.8 134 1030

Source: Agricultural Research & Development Council 2007*

Item
Agricultural lands

Area (feddan) 1984

Area (feddan) 2007

Different land use areas in the Delta , Nile Valley and adjacent areas are east and west, 1984 and 2007

7,149,695

8,560,078
332,089

Under reclaimed soils The total agricultural lands Area of the River Nile, the Rosetta and Damietta branches Urbanization Roads, water and drainage channels (> 20 m) The total area of Egypt % total agricultural lands to Egypts total area % total urban area to agricultural area

7,149,695

8,892,176 155,704 1,029,570 290,393 238,000,000

442,865 182,061 238,000,000

3.004 5.83

3.74 10.74

International Consultant - CC Expert TCDC/Retired Expert - Socio-Economist National Consultant Hydro-geologist National Consultant GIS/RS Specialist National Consultant - Statistician/Simulation National Consultant - CC Expert National Consultant IT Website Developer National Consultant - Agronomist Five National Consultants - Site Monitors

 Knowledge is power
Having information offers a way to control the parameters of our environment.
Making decisions (resource allocation).

Information
No information

Pure luck!
Imperfect information

With perfect information, one should be able to make optimal decisions. Impossible to be perfectly informed, so decisions are always imperfect (sub-optimal).

Sub-optimal decisions
Perfect information

Optimal decisions

Expanding
Knowledge base study on SLR changes, groundwater table, and salinization of soil and groundwater along the coastal area of the Nile Delta

Promoting
Monitoring network installation, checking and geo-referenc

Developing
a simulation model of likely impacts of SLR based on potential local SLR ranges and website to facilitate access to information on the impacts of CC along the coastal area of the Nile Delta.

These targets could be achieved through

1) Determination of monitoring sites network via Satellite images and GIS 2) Monitoring & measuring the changes in groundwater level, salinity.

3) Establish database.
4) Rising public awareness of Climate change risks of SLR by publish the obtained information on the internet via website

Climate Change Risk Monitoring of Sea Level Rise on groundwater and agricultural impacts in the Nile Delta

OUTPUTS / ACTIVITIES

YEAR 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4

YEAR 1

Preparation: Establishment of the institutional framework Activity 0.1: Set up an interinstitutional committee before project implementation Output 1: CC monitoring sites identified Activity 1.1: Knowledge base study on changes, groundwater table, and salinization of soil and groundwater X X Activity 1.2: Selecting representative pilot area Activity 1.3: Monitoring sites and network X

Output 2: CC monitoring network installed, checked and geo-referenced Activity 2.1: Network installed, checked, and geo-referenced Activity 2.2: Monitoring and data collection Output 3: Likely impacts of on groundwater table, soil and groundwater quality known activity 3.1: Data analysis and interpretation Activity 3.2: Calibration and validation of groundwater model and soil model and conduct study/forecast of CC impacts on agriculture in the Nile Delta Activity 3.3: Simulation of the likely impacts of on groundwater table and soil and groundwater salinization Activity 3.4: Modeling likely future CC impact scenarios Activity 3.5: Economic and agronomic impacts of CC and adaptation measures X X X X X

X X X X X X X X X X

X X X X X X X X X X

X X

Output 4: Action oriented information system for managing monitoring information established Activity 4.1: Develop and maintain a web-site to facilitate access to information on the impacts of CC along the coastal area of the Nile Delta

X X X X

Activity 4.2: Preparation of the technical report on likely impacts and adaptation measures of climate change (CC) along the coastal areas of the Nile Delta
Activity 4.3: Hold dissemination workshops to technical national staff, government policy makers, extension agents, farmers and NGOs

X X

X X

20

1.Knowledge base study on SLR changes, groundwater table, and salinization of soil and groundwater along the coastal area of the Nile Delta 2.Identification of monitoring variables/parameters (for soil and groundwater) 3.Selection of representative pilot areas 4.Selection of monitoring sites

5. Monitoring network installation, checking and geo-referencing 6. Monitoring and data collection 7. Data analysis and interpretation 8. Simulation of likely impacts of SLR on groundwater table and soil and groundwater salinization based on potential local SLR ranges 9. Calibration and/or validation of selected models such as groundwater model and soil model

10.Economic and agronomic impacts/adaptation analysis of CC impacts, particularly changes in soil and groundwater due to SLR 11.Development and maintenance of a web-site to facilitate access to information on the impacts of CC along the coastal area of the Nile Delta. 12.Preparation of a technical report on likely impacts and adaptation measures of climate change (CC) along the coastal areas of the Nile Delta. 13.Holding of dissemination workshops on the project results.

Thank you