More spatially-explicit trade analyses: the development of a pixel-to-consumer model for Brazilian farming production

Javier Godar, Stockholm Environment Institute javier.godar@sei-international.org

BACKGROUND
(Land) footprint analyses lack a detailed spatial connection between production regions and final consumers.
Distortion of causal links between consumers choices and the environment

Errors in footprint calculations because env. impacts are site-specific (spatial variability) while we use global or national averages (yields, C, WF index)
Impacts in specific regions remain invisible to consumers

This hampers our capacity to: Allocate consumer responsibilities, accountability of governments/producers

Include externalities in the prize of traded goods

Understand mechanisms for improved efficiency Inform policies

WHAT LAND FOOTPRINT REALLY MEANS?....

WHITOUT A SPATIAL DIMENSION? Geography matters!

SERI (2011) for Friends of the Earth

For agricultural land: Europe is net importing large amounts of embodied land Brazil (19 million ha) (Friends of the Earth Europe, 2013) A cup of coffee has a land footprint of 4.3 m2

A BRAZILIAN EXAMPLE
Brazilian soy production per biome (Tn)

Brazil av. soy yield 2011= 3.11 Tn/ha

Municipality Yield (Tn/ha) GENERAL SALGADO 6.60 NOVA CRIXS 6.51 FELIZ 1.00 JANGADA 0.90

ATLANTIC FOREST

CERRADO

PAMPA

CAATINGA

AMAZON

PANTANAL

A PIXEL TO CONSUMER MODEL (1)

A PIXEL TO CONSUMER MODEL (2)

DATA: Farming data at (sub)municipal scales Multi-temporal LULC maps Trade data from exporting facilities National transportation network

FAO bilateral trade matrices

Review of socio-environmental data to calculate footprints

A PIXEL TO CONSUMER MODEL (3)

1- Modeling of environmental impacts at municipal scale 1.a Caused by land transformation: LULC change (pixel) Ecosystem services mapping (INVEST) 1.b Caused by land occupation: Conversion factors applied to crops for: WF Agrochemicals

Nutrients
Soil degradation Biodiversity assessments

A PIXEL TO CONSUMER MODEL (4)

2- Modeling transport allocation Brazilian network with cost weights (minutes) Origin destination cost matrix (GIS) Linear programming minimize total cost of transportation (optimization) National consumption competes with exports in the allocation.

A PIXEL TO CONSUMER MODEL (4)

3- Modeling trade allocation
1.a Apparent consumption, re-exports: Products consumed in a country originate in proportional shares from the country's imports and domestic production (Kastner et al, 2011). The exporting municipalities are treated as countries.
4.000 3.500 3.000 2.500 2.000 1.500 1.000 500 0 Netherlands Norway Spain Finland Sweden Japan Iran FAO, soy imports from Brazil (1000 Tn) Apparent consumption from Brazil

1.b Multirregional Input Output Analysis (MRIO) ???

A PIXEL TO CONSUMER MODEL (5)

4- Modeling consumption
SEI tool: Resources and Energy Analysis Programme (REAP). REAP generates ecological, carbon and greenhouse gas at municipal, regional and national scales.

Data on emissions and land/resources required for production are allocated from the generating sector to the goods or services produced through the MRIO.

EXAMPLE 1
Origin of Brazilian soy consumed in China 2010 (minimum radius=0-20 th. Tn) Origin of Brazilian soy consumed in the EU 2010 (minimum radius=0-20 th. Tn)

(Per unit of soy consumed), the EU has imported a 17% more soy from the Amazon and 41% more from the Cerrado than China moratorium or ILUC?? The majority of soy China consumes comes from the already deforested Mata Atlantica.
Procedence of consumed soy 2010, in percentage per biome.
100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 43,5 23,9 32,8 PANTANAL PAMPA MATA ATLANTICA CERRADO CAATINGA AMAZONIA

Country share of soy produced per biome (2010)

BRAZIL AMAZONIA CAATINGA CERRADO MATA ATLANTICA PAMPA PANTANAL CHINA 45.3 42.8 0.9 38.6 56.5 40.1 8.5 EU 32.8 36.3 80.1 39.3 22.5 31.6 46.7 RUSSIA 0.9 1.9 0.0 0.9 0.9 0.1 0.7

40%
30% 20% 10% 0% 8,6 CHINA 42,6

60,0

48,3

10,1 EU

18,3 RUSSIA

EXAMPLE 2

CHINA EU AFRICA OTHERS

Soy consumption from the Enawene Nawe municipalities in 2010, in Tonnes.

200000 180000 160000 140000 120000 100000 80000 60000

40000
20000 0

FINAL REMARKS
The model is in the process of further automatization for easy replicability (GRASS+R). At the end this is about integrating well-consolidated disciplines: The study of farming production dynamics Environmental impact assessments Trade analysis Consumption footprinting Exports data at fine scales not generally available in most countries, but there is good tracking-traceability of goods for tax/health purposes We need to demand better trade data and provide resources to increase data standards.

THANKS!
javier.godar@sei-international.org

CURRENT STATUS AND FUTURE DIRECTIONS

-Trade model just finished for all crops, code implemented in R and GRASS. -Ongoing calculation of environmental impacts.

-Analyses and link to policies in 2014

-Several decisions to take: -Which amortization time? -Crop substitution -Socio-economic impacts? -Integration with REAP, how? -Move to other countries. -What can MRIO add to the methodology? -Automatization of several steps (LP) -Help!

1.b MRIO: Analysis of global supply chain. Goods and services, economic structure, inter-industry and inter-regional transactions. Monetary data represent the flows of physical commodities. Per economic sector as well. Few dates!!!!

Demand of Brazilian soybean in the UK (1000 Tn, 2007, West et al., 2013) FAO data 861 Apparent consumption MRIO (to satisfy demand for all goods and services) 1,096 1,417