Telecommunications Evolution and the Future of Wireless

Vivek S. Tulja
Global Segment Executive IBM Wireless e-business VivekT@us.ibm.com 404 819 6990

IBM

Historical Perspective and Evolution of Telecommunications

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Historically, business growth has followed technological development, resulting in divergent networks and businesses

PacketSwitched

Fixed Data
Early voice protocols - 1960s Internet Protocol - 1970s

Mobile Data
Ardis, Mobitex - 1990s 3G networks - 2000s

Fixed Voice

Mobile Voice
Analog Cellular (1G) - 1980s Digital Cellular (2G) - 1990s

CircuitSwitched

Alexander Graham Bells telephone - 1876

Fixed

Mobile

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Where Are We Right Now, and where are we headed?

Typical Telco during the 1990s: Product Silo organization Local Wireline Wireless IP Frame Relay X.25 ISP

Provisioning Systems Networks Billing Systems

Two main drivers of change:

Convergence: Improving capital utilization and operational efficiency Single transport network, a few complementary access networks Future Growth will be in Data: Voice business is nearing its growth potential New data technologies: 3G (packet-switching), WAP, PKI, LBS, micropayments, etc. Wireless e-business: wireless communications + internet = new services

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Telecommunications network of the future: Inexpensive, simple, easy to manage, universal enabler of services
Fixed Access Networks Mobile Access Networks
Wide Area Wireless Access - Worldwide networks: A few - Worldwide users: Millions - Single User Data Rate << 2 mbps - Range: unlimited - e.g. Satellite Metropolitan Area Wireless Access - Worldwide networks: Thousands - Worldwide users: Billions - Single User Data Rate ~ 2 mbps - Range: a few kilometers - e.g. PCS, Fixed Wireless Local Area Wireless Access - Worldwide networks: Millions - Worldwide users: Billions - Single user data rate > 2 mbps - Range < 500 meters - e.g. IEEE 802.11 Personal Area Wireless Access - Worldwide networks: Millions - Worldwide users: Billions - Single user data rate > 2 mbps - Range < 100 meters - e.g. Bluetooth
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Personal Computers Residential Access - Single user data rate > 2 mbps

Content / Application Servers Business Access - Single user data rate > 44 mbps

- Seamless Integration and handoffs among various types of wireless access networks to minimize cost and enhance the user experience - Connectivity to various types of portable devices such as PDAs, PCs, cell phones, special-purpose wearable computers, etc.

Wireless / Wireline Access Networks - Worldwide networks: Thousands - Worldwide users: Billions - e.g. DSL, LMDS

Transport Networks

IP-Based Transport Networks - Worldwide networks: Thousands - Unlimited bandwidth - Global routing capability - Global Presence - Single, global Standard

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Long-term Objective for Telecommunications

- Making telecom services affordable to everyone - Standardizing technology and business practices for economies of scale - Capital equipment that is scalable, upgradable, and less expensive - Lower operating expenses: low maintenance, self-healing HW and SW - More efficient and uniform use of radio frequency spectrum - Regulatory practices that promote usage and provide privacy and security - Maintenance of privacy and security across national boundaries - 100% coverage of the globe, new ways of relaying signal - Open, universal standards (also multi-mode, multi-band user devices) - Low or no roaming charges, and consistent service quality - User devices that are always on, always connected - High-functionality user devices (i.e. e-mail, voice, data, PDA, etc.) - User devices that are lightweight and have long battery life - Networks with sufficient capacity to handle heavy traffic loads - Networks that support real-time transmission of information - Intelligent networks that understand users personal communications needs and can intelligently route information to any device owned by the user - Devices that support multi-modal communication with the user - Devices that are aware of other devices owned by the user and can intelligently store and route information - Devices that are context-sensitive and location-sensitive - Single, convergent network that can transport any type of content and sufficient network capacity to transmit it within a reasonable timeframe - Open standards for content access and dissemination - Security, authentication, and data integrity for content and user privacy - Flexible IT arch. to support business practices within various verticals
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ANY- ONE

ANY- PLACE

ANY- TIME

ANY- DEVICE

ANY- CONTENT

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Future of Wireless Communications

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Several new technologies will be launched commercially over the next few years
Internet

HANDSETS
- PAN, LAN, MAN, WAN communications capability with a single device - Support of Fixed-Mobile Convergence - Location detection technology compliance - Significantly greater variety of features and functions: PDA, MPEG - Multi-mode: Global roaming - SAT and MExE - Voice Recognition, multi-modal

WIRELESS NETWORK
- 3G: Higher data rates, more affordable - Adoption of CDMA air interface - WAP or similar protocols for web access - Voice Recognition and multi-modal networks - Unified Messaging - Intelligent networks - Converged OSS/BSS: Lower OpEx, faster time-to-market, VAR support - Lower CapEx & OpEx, easier to manage: Softswitches, Software-defined Radios, etc. - Location detection capability Location-based services & service pricing - Standards harmonization: Global roaming

APPLICATIONS and CONTENT

- Designed for wireless access (e.g. WAP compliant) - Push function

TERRESTRIAL NETWORK
- Packet-switched network (VoIP): Voice-data convergence, seamless integration with the Internet / WWW

- Public Key Infrastructure for end-to-end security: Authentication, Non-repudiation, Confidentiality and Data Integrity

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Four Cs of Wireless: Cost, Capacity, Coverage, Content

Cost Wireless WAN (Satellite)
$0.25-0.50/megabyte < 100 kbps 100% (geography) Proprietary >>> Standard

Capacity

Coverage

Content

Wireless MAN 1G 2G 3G 4G
n/a $1-$3/megabyte $0.2-$0.5/megabyte < $0.05/megabyte n/a 10kbps/user 21-384 kbps up to 2 mbps 60-75% (population) 80-90% (population) 80-90% (population) > 90% (population) n/a Proprietary
Standardized

Standardized

Wireless LAN
<< $0.01/megabyte ~ 2 mbps 10-25% (geography) Standardized

Wireless PAN
<< $0.01/megabyte ~ 2 mbps 10-25% (geography) Standardized

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Major Hurdles: Bandwidth, Standardization, Security, and Device and Application Availability
Bandwidth available to a single user will not be significant (less than 384 kbps) until 3G networks have matured Standardization Interoperability between various networks & systems Spectrum allocations within and across national boundaries Legal / regulatory framework within and across national boundaries Security Development, scalability, and maturity of wireless e-business applications Device issues Battery life Timely availability Mass customization versus economies of scale

IBM Lack of mature operating systems for user devices

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Telecommunications Evolution and the Future of Wireless

Vivek S. Tulja
Global Segment Executive IBM Wireless e-business VivekT@us.ibm.com 404 819 6990

IBM