1he hlllpplnes Loday ls aL an exclLlng Llme for lnvesLmenL due Lo Lhe unlque convergence of domesLlc facLors amld exLernal volaLlllLy LhaL. lndeed, Loday, lL ls more fun lnvesLlng ln Lhe hlllpplnes. We see Lhe SLl ascendlng Lo new hlghs of 3,700 Lo 6,000 wlLhln end-year Lo C1 2013.
Cur Lop 3 sLock plcks glve exposure Lo hlgh-growLh secLors: Lnergy, ConsumpLlon, 8anklng whlch presenLly provlde upslde opporLunlLy as well as furLher upgrade due Lo managemenL's expanslon sLraLegy.
SCC's commlsslonlng of Calaca unlL 1 as of Aug. 1 lncreases capaclLy from 340MW Lo 330MW, 7-year supply conLracL slgned wlLh Meralco assures sales for 200MW or up Lo 410MW of capaclLy, conLlnuous expanslon of energy buslness by anoLher 300MW by 2014, and even anoLher 300MW wlLhln Lhe nexL 3 years, and furLher exploraLlon of coal reserves, whlle belng Lhe blggesL producer ln Lhe counLry (accounLlng for over 90), ensures susLalnablllLy and growLh ln earnlngs. We recommend a 8u? wlLh a prlce LargeL of 234.00.
GCLD |s Lermed as a pure reLall play parLlcularly ln an economy noLed for lLs robusL consumer spendlng. Larnlngs are drlven furLher by fasLer-Lhan-expecLed execuLlon of managemenL plans, a Lrend whlch ls seen Lo conLlnue amld lLs aggresslve and sLraLeglc expanslon, enhanced by ample llquldlLy from sLore operaLlons and a corporaLe noLes offer, as lL vles for markeL leadershlp. We recommend a 8u? wlLh a prlce LargeL of 34.
LW provldes Lhe parLlclpaLlon ln lLs LransformaLlon lnLo a unlversal bank. 1he bank ls on an aggresslve expanslon phase, acqulrlng and organlcally growlng lLs neLwork Lo become Lhe flfLh blggesL ln Lhe counLry. 1he bank has moved Lo recaplLallze recenL acqulslLlons and conLlnuously puLs up new branches havlng won 103 resLrlcLed area branch llcenses form 8S. Lxpanslon efforLs achleve economles of scale whlle Lhe bank malnLalns lLs unlque sLraLegy of consumer and corporaLe mld-markeL focus. We recommend a buy wlLh a prlce LargeL of 23.
1he hlllpplnes conLlnues Lo be a safe haven amld volaLlllLy ln exLernal markeLs sLemmlng from Lhe debL crlsls ln Lurope and slowlng global growLh parLlcularly ln Lhe world's largesL economles - uS, Chlna and lndla. lurLhermore, Lhe local markeL has conLlnued Lo ouLperform Lhe reglon on a convergence of poslLlve facLors as Lhe governmenL conLlnues Lo lay Lhe groundwork for susLalned economlc growLh ln Lhe nexL years Lo come.
lnvesLlng ls more fun ln Lhe hlllpplnes and here are Lhe many reasons why:
(1) Low lnLeresL raLes (noLe LhaL anoLher raLe cuL ls foreseen by C4) coupled wlLh benlgn lnflaLlon, (2) lmproved regulaLlon for banklng and real esLaLe segmenLs, prlmarlly Lo provlde a sLrucLured growLh and avold bubbles," (3) CharacLerlsLlcally robusL consumer spendlng Lo be furLher supporLed by 2013 LlecLlons and Lhe demographlc dlvldend," (4) 8ulk of pro[ecLs expecLed Lo be rolled ouL ln 2013 (abouL 1128-worLh), (3) 8ecord 21 budgeL for 2013, (6) anLlclpaLed Lourlsm boom from Lhe new gamlng hub, Lhe Manlla 8ay LnLerLalnmenL complex and new lnfrasLrucLure Lo enable Lhls, Cngolng expanslon by developers, as well as lncreased efforLs by Lhe uC1 as a mandaLed focus by Lhe currenL admlnlsLraLlon (6) osslble lnvesLmenL grade ln 2013-2014 (7) 8eslllenL 8emlLLance growLh Lhrough overseas workers and burgeonlng 8C secLor.
CorrecLlons are seen as 8u? opporLunlLles, speclflcally from any modesL negaLlve shock or lncreased markeL volaLlllLy ln exLernal markeLs as we see Lhe lndex ascendlng Lo new hlghs ln Lhe range of 3,700 - 6,000 wlLhln end-year Lo C1 2013.
Cur Lop 3 sLock plcks glve exposure Lo Lnergy, ConsumpLlon, 8anklng whlch presenLly provlde upslde opporLunlLy as well as furLher upgrade due Lo managemenL's expanslon sLraLegy.
Ca|aca Un|t 1 re-comm|ss|oned from rehab|||tat|on w|th |mproved tota| capac|ty of SS0MW from 340MW may prov|de poss|b|e surge |n earn|ngs |n n2. Iurthermore, fu||-year earn|ngs of both Ca|aca un|ts to be attr|butab|e |n 2013, coup|ed w|th a |ow base effect vs. 2012. lor Lhe flrsL half, unlL 1 was under rehablllLaLlon. Whlle commencemenL of operaLlons was delayed from !une Lo AugusL 1, capaclLy ls expecLed Lo lmprove Lo 330MW from 340MW whlch may effecL posslble surge ln P2 earnlngs, and conLrlbuLe Lo full-year 2013 earnlngs vls-a-vls low base effecL from 2012.
Assured Sa|es lL slgned a 7-year supply conLracL wlLh ML8, effecLlve uec. 26, lnvolvlng 210MW whlch can Lhen be lncreased by 200MW, or a LoLal of up Lo 410MW, or 78 of LoLal currenL capaclLy of 330MW.
Susta|ned Larn|ngs, Va|ue-enhanc|ng Lxpans|on |n Lnergy and Coa| Coal and energy buslness are sLaples (and defenslve poslLlons) wlLh each complemenLlng Lhe oLher, as boLh lndusLrles conLlnue Lo expand on Lhe back of brlghL domesLlc economlc ouLlook. Larnlngs are also pro[ecLed Lo conLlnue growlng on accounL of expanslon plans ln power capaclLy and susLalned coal reserves, belng a leader ln Lhe laLLer.
1he company ls bulldlng anoLher 300MW Lo come on-sLream by 2014, and anoLher 300MW wlLhln anoLher 3 years, for a LoLal of 1,200MW. lL ls noLable LhaL expanslon can even accommodaLe up Lo LoLal capaclLy of 1,800MW. ln addlLlon Lo 130M meLrlc Lons (M1) of known reserves, SCC announced Lhls SepL. flndlngs from a new coal deposlL - 8obog whlch showed 27.3M M1 of measured and 9M M1 lndlcaLed coal reserves from a LoLal of 37.3M poLenLlal resource.
I|nanc|a|s & 1argets lor 2012, neL lncome ls expecLed Lo lncrease by 7 Lo 6.48 from 68 ln 2011, and lncrease 33 year-on-year Lo 8.38 for 2013 on beLLer power and coal marglns. We recommend a 8u? wlLh a prlce LargeL of 234.00. osslble upgrade due Lo expanslon plans.
Increased Sa|es growth forecast for the year on the back of faster-than-expected execut|on, trend seen to cont|nue 1he company revlsed Lhls year's sales growLh forecasL from 23 Lo 30 Lo 38.38 as lL lncreased Lhe no. of sLores lL wlll open Lhls year from 23 Lo 31. lasLer-Lhan-expecLed execuLlon reflecLs company's aggresslve sLance and capablllLy Lo achleve lLs LargeL of 200 sLores by 2013 (from 130 end-2012), posslbly even flnlsh ahead of schedule.
Iunded, Aggress|ve and Strateg|c Lxpans|on Cn Lop of cash-rlch operaLlons, posslble proceeds from a currenL corporaLe noLes offer of 38 or up Lo 88 wlLh 3 and 7-year Lenor are ln llne wlLh Lhe company's expanslon plans, organlcally and Lhrough acqulslLlons.
lollowlng recenL consolldaLlon of S&8 sLores and Lhe acqulslLlon of arco supermarkeLs, Lhe company's sLraLegy of growLh ls provlng successful as lL achleves economles of scale, ensurlng marglns and lmprovlng boLLomllne. 1he openlng of new sLores ln 2011, accounLed for 68.2 of Lhe LoLal lncrease ln neL sales for Lhe flrsL half of 2012.
Vy|ng for market |eadersh|p |n number and market reach CCLu ls markeLed as a pure reLall play ln an economy noLed for lLs robusL consumer spendlng. 1he company vles Lo compeLe wlLh Lhe supermarkeL porLfollo of Lhe counLry's blggesL reLaller SM. CCLu servlces a range of markeL segmenLs, from Lhe C&u markeL Lhrough arco Lo Lhe hlgh-end Lhrough S&8. 1he company noLed LhaL lL has [usL sLarLed Lo Lap Lhe laLLer segmenL and alms Lo have a LoLal of 10 S&8 branches from currenL 6 wlLhln 3 years.
As of end-!une, CCLu had 134 sLores (66 hypermarkeLs, 32 supermarkeLs and 11 dlscounLers, 6 S&8 sLores and 19 arco supermarkeLs). 8y end-year, lL plans Lo open 22 more sLores for a LoLal of 136 by end-2012. ln comparlson, as of end-!une, SM had a LoLal of 140 supermarkeL-formaL sLores (34 SM SupermarkeLs, 73 SaveMore sLores and 33 SM PypermarkeLs). lor 2012, lL LargeLs Lo add 6 supermarkeLs, 21 SaveMore branches and 3 PypermarkeLs for a LoLal of 172 sLores.
I|nanc|a|s and 1argets Cn Lhe back of lLs aggresslve expanslon sLory, earnlngs are seen aL hlgh double-dlglL growLh raLes. lor 2012, neL lncome ls expecLed Lo lncrease 79 Lo 2.78 from 1.348 ln 2011, and lncrease furLher by 42 Lo 3.98 ln 2013. We recommend a 8u? wlLh a prlce LargeL of 34. osslble upgrade due Lo expanslon plans.
art|c|pat|ng |n the transformat|on |nto a Un|versa| 8ank 1he lC of LW allowed lnvesLors Lo parLlclpaLe ln lLs LransformaLlon Lo become one of Lhe largesL banks ln Lhe counLry. AL Lhe offer prlce of 18.30, Lhe sLock was aL an undemandlng valuaLlon of 1.34x rlce-Lo-8ook value wlLh a /L of 12.03x.
LW had llsLed Lo comply wlLh a 8S requlremenL of aL leasL 10 publlc floaL Lo upgrade Lo a unlversal banklng llcense whlch lL was granLed [usL Lhls AugusL afLer havlng sLarLed operaLlng under a provlslonal llcense ln laLe 2010. 1he lC resulLed Lo 38 ln proceeds Lo fund lLs 3-year expanslon program.
Pavlng won 103 resLrlcLed area branch llcenses (l.e. ln key clLles of Manlla) from Lhe 8S, Lhe bank's plans lnclude Lhe seLLlng up of 100 branches ln 2012, 73 of whlch wlll be ln resLrlcLed areas. lor 2013, lL wlll seL-up anoLher 100 ln 2013, evenLually LoLallng 330 by 2014 as lL alms Lo be Lhe flfLh blggesL bank ln Lerms of neLwork. As of Lhe flrsL half of Lhe year, LW had 138 branches, wlLh over 60 ln MeLro Manlla, and 40 ln key provlnclal areas.
Ach|ev|ng econom|es of sca|e wh||e ma|nta|n|ng un|que strategy of Consumer and Corporate M|d-Market focus 1o achleve economles of scale whlle malnLalnlng Consumer and CorporaLe Mld-MarkeL focus, Lhe bank ls open Lo growlng organlcally or Lhrough acqulslLlon. 8ecenLly, Lhe bank compleLed a recaplLallzaLlon program worLh 820M of 2 acqulred banks - 700M for Creen 8ank lnc. Lo be merged wlLh LW and 120M for llnMan as lLs rural bank subsldlary, Lo be renamed LasLWesL 8ural 8ank.
LW has recenLly galned 8S approval Lo offer 38 worLh of long-Lerm cerLlflcaLes of deposlLs wlLh maLurlLy of up Lo 3 years and 6 monLhs, Lo posslbly lssue ln C4 Lhls year or nexL year. 1hls exerclse ls almed aL lmprovlng a beLLer llablllLy sLrucLure ln anLlclpaLlon of hlgher loan growLh amld expanslon.
I|nanc|a|s & 1argets ln 2013, Lhe bank ls forecasLed 32 growLh ln neL lncome Lo 2.278 from esL. 1.728 Lhls year. ln 2014, earnlngs are seen Lo grow anoLher 31 Lo 2.988. We recommend a buy wlLh a prlce LargeL of 23. osslble upgrade due Lo expanslon plans.