Akuta krisfrlopp har, trots stora ekonomiska, finansiella, sociala och politiska utmaningar, i stort sett lyst med sin frnvaro under 2013. Kanske har vi blivit immuna och vrderar kriser p ett nytt stt efter all dramatik de senaste ren. Nu samlas prognosmakare terigen kring mer positiva utsikter infr framtiden. Lite smtt ironiskt konstaterade Bank of Englands chef i ett tal nyligen att bilden av 2014 fljer samma mnster men att med facit i hand s har de senaste fem ren tvingat ekonomer, och centralbanker, till fyra pudlar: utfallet har blivit smre n fregende r. Mycket talar fr att vrldsekonomin verkligen har haft bottenknning. USA visar en sjlvgende tillvxtkraft och tillvxtekonomier vxer, om n lite lngsammare n tidigare. Japan vxer ocks ven om det r en kad aktivitet som gr p lnade pengar och tid. Trgheterna i Europa bestr men utvecklingen spretar mellan lnderna. En sker slutsats fr 2014 r att ret r frutsgbart oskert och sprngfyllt med faktorer, frgor och trender som stter avtryck p hur vi summerar utfallet om ca ett r. Det nya ret har alla frutsttningar att bli ett ur flera synvinklar intressant och spnnande r. Sklen r flera: de riktigt kortsiktiga utmaningarna kvarstr, t ex fr Europa att snabbt f p plats en stabil bankunion och strkt banksystem, fr Japan att leverera strukturpolitik, fr Kina att landa ekonomin i ett balanserat tillstnd och fr Fed att lyfta p den monetra gaspedalen utan att tappa rntekontrollen; frre krislgen kar mjligheten att lyfta blicken; d upptrder inte bara mjligheterna utan ocks de lngsiktiga problemen; flera sanningar om ekonomiska samband och ekonomisk-politiska ramverk r under omprvning p ett mycket spnnande stt. De senaste veckorna har vi gtt igenom en mngd olika internationella dokument programfrklaringar fr ordfrandeskap, arbetsprogram, kalendrar, planerade internationella konferenser och ekonomisk-politiska bloggar fr att hitta de tema och faktorer som stter frg p 2014. Vi valde ut 16 stycken. Samtliga dessa finns redovisade som bilaga till detta dokument. Fr var och en av dessa 16 faktorer finns motivering till varfr den
har frutsttningar att stta sin prgel p 2014 och vilka konsekvenser kan bli. En kalender r kopplad till de 16 faktorerna med ngra av rets nyckelhndelser. I korthet har vi identifierat fljande faktorer/tema fr 2014:
1 Frutsttningarna fr ekonomisk tillvxt 2014 fortstter att variera stort mellan enskilda lnder och regioner. 2 Nr terhmtningsfasen r avslutad r stagnation det nya tillvxtnormala och vad fr det fr konsekvenser? 3 Det offentliga skuldberget behver det monteras ned och hur gr vi det i s fall; dags fr skuldnedskrivning? 4 Arbetslsheten mste ned alltfr mnga ungdomar gr utan arbete och str utanfr utbildningssystemen. 5 G20 vntar p nystart under Australiens ordfrandeskap fr att skapa mer verkstad och mindre snack. 6 Vrlden r p vg in i ett mer skakigt geopolitiskt landskap i framfr allt Mellanstern och Asien. 7 Europa r p vg mot sitt viktigaste politiska val hittills utfallet avgr de nrmaste rens utveckling. 8 Eurokrisen frgan r om den r ver eller om den befinner sig i ett pauslge problemen lever vidare? 9 Penningpolitiken blir aldrig som frr aldrig har policyramverket upplevts s oskert som just nu. 10 Gr det att samordna penningpolitiken och r Fed beredd att gra eftergifter med hnsyn till andra? 11 Inflationen har varit frnvarande r det dags att annonsera dess terkomst? 12 Makrotillsynspolitiken r den en hjlp eller r den alltfr oprvad och riskerar istllet att ge nya problem? 13 Europa behver en svag euro frutsttningarna finns men utsikterna fr detta r oskra. 14 Stora omvlvningar p energimarknaden bra fr tillvxt och lg inflation men geopolitiska effekterna oklara. 15 Kina lyfter landet sina politiska ambitioner eller str ekonomin i fortsatt fokus gr det att landa Kina skert? 16 Japansk balansgng fortstter utfallet r oklart.
Resonemang och slutsatser terfinns allts i bilagan till denna Veckans tanke. I mnga stycken knns 2014 som ett ovanligt blankt papper dr sakers tillstnd r under omprvning. Det blir ett spnnande men krvande r 2014 kryddat med lite optimism. Robert Bergqvist, robert.bergqvist@seb.se, 070-445 1404 Twitter: @BergqvistRobert
Eurokrisen
Makrotillsyn
Energipriser
Kina
Japan
Hndelse SEB:s Nordic Outlook IMF WEO/GFSR SEB:s Nordic Outlook OECD WEO SEB:s Nordic Outlook IMF WEO/GFSR SEB:s Nordic Outlook OECD WEO
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Hndelse SEB:s Nordic Outlook IMF WEO/GFSR SEB:s Nordic Outlook OECD WEO SEB:s Nordic Outlook IMF WEO/GFSR SEB:s Nordic Outlook OECD WEO
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Hndelse IMF Fiscal Monitor IMF Vrmte IMF Fiscal Monitor IMF rsmte
Hndelse Val i Thailand Val i Indien Val i Indonesien Val till EU-parlament Presidentval Turkiet Val i Sverige Presidentval Brasilien Kongressval i USA
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Hndelse EU-toppmte Frslag politisk union EU-toppmte EU-toppmte EU-valet Skottland rstar Ny EU-kommission Katalonien rstar
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urozonen har kommit en bitr p vg att lsa staters och likEurons lngsiktiga stabilitet beroende av hur lngt debankers 18 eurolnderviditetsproblem. xxxxxx na r beredda att g i kad ekonomisk, finansiell, social och politiskt integration och acceptera frndringar i existerande frdrag. Tyskland r Finansiella obalanser stark pdrivare, Frankrike bromsar hrt. Under 2014 gr integrationsdiskussionen p lg fart fr att inte stra EU-valen i maj. Frhoppningar om tillvxt och svag euro frskjuter fokus mot politik och banker och deras hlsotillstnd efter stresstester/kontroller. Risken fr bankproblem r liten eftersom ramverket r p plats fr att hantera banker med bde likviditets- och solvensproblem. Frankrike r en joker. Lget r inte akut i dagslget men landet r p vg t fel hll och kritiken vxer mot president Hollande fr ekonomisk-politisk frnvaro.
2014-01-07 | Faktorer och trender som frgar 2014
ECB:s ek. prognoser EU-valet ECB: bankgranskning ECB:s ek. prognoser ECB:s stresstester ECB:s ek. prognoser ECB startar tillsyn ECB:s ek. prognoser
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Datum Hndelse 1/2 Feb Vren Jun Aug Hsten 2014 Dec Yellen blir ny Fedchef Yellen i kongressen ECB sjstter QE BIS rsmte Jackson Hole IMF-seminarium: Penningpolitik Japan avslutar QE?
11
Hndelse FOMC FOMC + presskonf. FOMC FOMC + presskonf. FOMC FOMC + presskonf. FOMC FOMC + presskonf.
12
Hndelse G20 KPI-inflation IMF: Prod.gap G20 BNP kv 4 2013 G20 BNP kv 1 2014 BIS rsmte G20 BNP kv 2 2014 G20 BNP kv 3 2014 IMF: Prod.gap
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Datum Hndelse 11/4 Jun Aug Okt Hsten G20 fin.min toppmte BIS rsmte Jackson Hole G20 fin.min toppmte IMF-seminarium om Penningpolitiken d och nu
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Datum Hndelse Feb Vren 2014 11/4 Dec Kv 2 Dec Yellen i kongressen ECB inleder traditionell QE-politik G20 finmin toppmte Fed avslutar QE3 Greklands/Portugals krisprogram avslutas LTRO-ln trappas ned
15
Datum
Hndelse
Jan-dec
IEA:s mnadsrapport
11/6
165:e OPEC-mtet
16
Datum Feb Kv 2
3-8/3 Jul
17
Hndelse Momshjning till 8% Reformfrslag lggs IMF Article IV Budget 2015 Tillggsbudget 2 r med Abenomics
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2014-01-07 trender som frgar 2014 2014-01-07 ||Faktorer How is och the world economy really doing?
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