Comentarios
• La construcción de nueva vivienda subió un 1,5% en Estados Unidos, hasta alcanzar una tasa anual estacional de 598.000 en agosto desde el mes anterior, debido
al incremento en la vivienda plurifamiliar. Sin embargo, la construcción de viviendas unifamiliares, que suponía un 80% de la construcción de nueva vivienda, bajó
un 3% hasta una tasa de 479.000.
• Disminuyó el ritmo de los despidos colectivos, mientras que los nuevos subsidios por desempleo descendieron en 12.000 solicitudes, hasta 545.000 en la semana
que finalizó el 12 de septiembre. No es que pueda considerarse un dato positivo, pero es la primera vez que las solicitudes están por debajo de 550.000. La media
móvil de las últimas 4 semanas bajó hasta 563.000.
• Ambos datos ponen de manifiesto la fragilidad de la economía de Estados Unidos. Parece que se mantiene la exposición al riesgo: el mercado de alto rendimiento
sigue subiendo, el diferencial de crédito de los bonos del gobierno estadounidense y los bonos corporativos BAA de Moody’s BAA siguen bajando. Continuamos
con la compra en dips en los mercados de valores.
Publicaciones de ganancias
País Hora (GMT) Nombre GPA Prevista GPA anterior Comentario
(G(GMT)(GMT)
Informe Diario de Mercado
2,5
120
100
1,5
1 80
0,5
60
-0,5 40
09-maj 09-jul 09-sep 09-nov 09-jan 09-mar 09-maj 09-jul 09-sep 19-09-2008 19-11-2008 19-01-2009 19-03-2009 19-05-2009 19-07-2009
# N /A Re q uestin g Data... Saxo CDS Index
USD breakeven 10 Year – an expression for measuring inflation Credit Default Swaps are expressions for the perceived
expectations. default risk in a company. Now at 56.
AAA and BAA Corporate Bonds vs. 30yr US Treasuries
EURUSD Opt. Vol.
35 7
6
30
5
25
4
20
3
15
2
10
1
5
0
jan-08 apr-08 jul-08 okt-08 jan-09 apr-09 jul-09
0
sep-07 nov-07 jan-08 mar-08 maj-08 jul-08 sep-08 nov-08 jan-09 mar-09 maj-09 jul-09 sep-09
Moody BAA - U S G eneric G ovt 30 Ye ar Yield Moody AAA - U S Ge neric G ovt 30 Yea r Yield
EUR -USD OP T VOL 1 W EUR -USD OP T VOL 1 M EUR -USD OP T VOL 1 Y
Volatility at different time horizons. Too low, now? Spreads are easing, but still showing tight corporate debt
markets.
10 50
8 40
6 30
4 20
10
2
0
0
mar-09 apr-09 maj-09 jun-09 jul-09 aug-09 sep-09
nov-08 dec-08 jan-09 feb-09 mar-09 apr-09 maj-09 jun-09 jul-09 aug-09
C BOE SP X V OLA TILI TY INDX
1
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