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Scottish Public Opinion Monitor

September 2013

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Independence referendum

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Referendum voting intention

Q. Should Scotland be an independent country?

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All
Undecided

Certain to vote
Undecided 10% 31%

14%
30%

Yes

Yes

Yes Change since May +2

57% No No

Yes Change since May 0

59%

Base: All = 1,000; all certain to vote = 73% (728). Data collected among 1,000 Scottish adults 16+, 9th-15th September 2013

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Referendum voting intention certain to vote

Q. Should Scotland be an independent country?

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Certain to vote
Undecided 10% Yes

31%

Yes Change since May 0

59% No

Base: All certain to vote = 73% (728). Data collected among 1,000 Scottish adults 16+, 9th-15th September 2013

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Referendum voting intention recent trend

Q. Should Scotland be an independent country? Yes
70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Jan-12

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No

Undecided

59%

31%

10%
Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13

Base: All certain to vote. Data collected among c1,000 Scottish adults

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Voting intention excluding dont knows

Q. Should Scotland be an independent country?

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All

Certain to vote

Yes 35%

34%

Yes

65% No No

66%

Base: All = 864; all certain to vote = 73% (659). Data collected among 1,000 Scottish adults 16+, 9th-15th September 2013

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Voting intention amongst those certain to vote and definitely decided how they will vote
Q. Should Scotland be an independent country?

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All definitely decided and certain to vote

All definitely decided and certain to vote (Feb-Sep)

Yes 33%

No Change since May

38%

62% 33% 33%

67% 67%

67% No

Yes

No

Base: All certain to vote and definitely decided (531). Data collected among c1,000 Scottish adults

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Floating voters
Q. Should Scotland be an independent country? All giving a voting intention but may change their mind

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All undecided inclined to vote

Undecided 39% Yes 34% 35%

Yes

61% No 31%

No
Base: All giving a voting intention but may change their mind (251); all undecided (130). Data collected among 1,000 Scottish adults 16+, 9th-15th September 2013

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Support for independence long-term trend

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60

50 Support for independence (%)

Introduction of the poll tax in Scotland
Devolution referendum

Scottish Parliament opens SNP form majority government

40

30

20
SNP form minority government Edinburgh Agreement signed

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Devolution referendum

1995

1997

1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1996

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

Data taken from MORI and Ipsos MORI polling (1999-07 data taken from Scottish Social Attitudes Survey)

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2013

Voting intention by gender

% voting Yes Men 24% 40%
40% 50%

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Women

54%

64%

30%

20%

10%

40%
Yes No

0% Jan-12

Jul-12

Jan-13

Jul-13

Base: All certain to vote (755). Data collected among 1,000 Scottish adults 16+, 9th-15th September 2013

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Voting intention by age group

% voting Yes
29%
37%
70%

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16-24*

25-34

35-54

55+

16-24
62%

12%

25-34
51%

60% 50% 40% 30%

30%

30%

20% 10%

9%
Yes No

35-54
61%

9%

55+
61%

0% Jan-12

Jul-12

Jan-13

Jul-13

*Jan 2012 May 2013 this was 18-24 year olds

Base: All certain to vote (755). Data collected among 1,000 Scottish adults 16+, 9th-15th September 2013

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Voting intention by levels of deprivation

% voting Yes
Most deprived areas 70% 60%

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Least deprived areas

45%

69%

50% 40% 30%

42%
Most deprived areas

22%
Least deprived areas

20% 10% 0% Jan-12

Yes No

Jul-12

Jan-13

Jul-13

Base: All certain to vote (755). Data collected among 1,000 Scottish adults 16+, 9th-15th September 2013

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Voting intention by party support

% voting Yes
68% 16% 9% 21% 75%
80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30%

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SNP

Lab

Con

Lib Dem

14% 1% 98% 6% 80%

20% 10% 0% Jan-12

Yes No

Jul-12

Jan-13

Jul-13

Base: All certain to vote (755). Data collected among 1,000 Scottish adults 16+, 9th-15th September 2013

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Technical details
This presents the topline results from Scotland Results are based on a survey of 1,000 respondents conducted by telephone

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Fieldwork dates: 9th 15th September 2013

Data are weight by: age, sex and working status using census data; tenure using SHS data; and public-private sector employment using Scottish Government Quarterly Public Sector Employment series data Where results do not sum to 100%, this may be due to computer rounding, multiple responses, or the exclusion of dont know categories Results are based on all respondents (1,000) unless otherwise stated

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Thank you
mark.diffley@ipsos.com | 0131 240 3269 christopher.mclean@ipsos.com | 0131 240 3264 @IpsosMORIScot

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