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This document discusses probabilistic planning and uncertainty in project durations. It covers topics like PERT analysis and Monte Carlo simulation approaches. PERT analysis expresses uncertainty in activity durations using beta distributions and assumes project duration is normally distributed. However, it has limitations like not accounting for dependence between activities. Monte Carlo simulation avoids assumptions by sampling random durations and finding critical paths repeatedly. It provides more accurate insights into duration distributions and criticality of activities. A few hundred to a thousand runs are typically needed.
Deskripsi Asli:
Probabilistic plans of unfolding the rational objective of this description
This document discusses probabilistic planning and uncertainty in project durations. It covers topics like PERT analysis and Monte Carlo simulation approaches. PERT analysis expresses uncertainty in activity durations using beta distributions and assumes project duration is normally distributed. However, it has limitations like not accounting for dependence between activities. Monte Carlo simulation avoids assumptions by sampling random durations and finding critical paths repeatedly. It provides more accurate insights into duration distributions and criticality of activities. A few hundred to a thousand runs are typically needed.
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Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
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Unduh sebagai PDF, TXT atau baca online dari Scribd
This document discusses probabilistic planning and uncertainty in project durations. It covers topics like PERT analysis and Monte Carlo simulation approaches. PERT analysis expresses uncertainty in activity durations using beta distributions and assumes project duration is normally distributed. However, it has limitations like not accounting for dependence between activities. Monte Carlo simulation avoids assumptions by sampling random durations and finding critical paths repeatedly. It provides more accurate insights into duration distributions and criticality of activities. A few hundred to a thousand runs are typically needed.
Hak Cipta:
Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
Format Tersedia
Unduh sebagai PDF, TXT atau baca online dari Scribd