Artificial Intelligence

Enrique Pelez Ph.D.

Agenda

Management of Uncertainty

Certainty Theory. Confidence Factor Introduction to Fuzzy Logic

Management of Uncertainty
Certainty Theory

Uncertainty is represented as a degree of belief or certainty about a fact or rule, which is known as Certainty Factor (CF). Each CF can be consider as a quantifier of the belief in a hypothesis, based on an evidence. Each assertion has to be associated with a CF, degree of

truth of Confidence Factor (CF), which is a number between 0

and 100 (-100 and 100). This number does not represent a probability and the sum of all, does not necessarily sum 1.

Management of Uncertainty
Certainty Theory

Certainty in the premises (facts, data) Certainty in the rules Final Value: CF = threshold

Management of Uncertainty

Reasoning with uncertainty is based on the manipulation of the CF:

The certainty in a conjunction of CFs is assumed as the certainty of the weakest segment is a chain of segments.. In a conjunction the CF is the minimum of the CFs.

The certainty in a disjunction depends on the strong segment. In a disjunction the CF is the maximum of the CFs. CF (A and B) = minimum [CF(A), CF(B)] CF (A or B) = maximum [CF(A), CF(B)]

The CFs in a rule states the certainty of the conclusion.

Management of Uncertainty

Example: CF (stock AB is of high technology) = 90 CF (stock AB is of high demand) = 60 CF (stock AB is of high technology and stock AB is of high demand) = 60 CF (stock AB is of high technology or stock AB is of high demand) = 90 Rule1, CF = 60 X is volatile If X is of high technology and X is of high demand. CF (X is volatile) = min [CF (stock AB is of high technology) and CF (stock AB is of high demand)] * CF/100 = min [60, 90] * 60/100 = 60 * 60 / 100 = 36

Management of Uncertainty
Probabilistic Methods:

Classic: It refers to the expectations about the occurrence of an event, based on the frequency of the results of the event occurred in the past. The relative frequency of the occurrence of an event approximates to its probability.

Management of Uncertainty
Probabilities

Probability is method that allow us translate an opinion or expectation of somebody or something in numbers.

Example: What is the probability of getting 2 heads when tossing 2 coin?.

P(two heads) = 1/4 = 0.25

Management of Uncertainty

The probability is a number between 0 and 1; it reflects the probable occurrence of an event. An impossible event has probability 0. A certain event has probability 1. The probability of an event A is denoted by P(A) The probability of 2 events A and B, occurring at the same time is

denoted by P(A and B)

The probability that an event A or an event B occurs is denoted by P(A or B).

Management of Uncertainty
The set of independent events (called the reference space, such as: A1, A2, . . . ,An), can represent all possibilities of occurrence.

The sum of all probabilities of all events must be equal to the certainty: 1.

Management of Uncertainty
Bayesian Method: Probability is a degree of belief that a person has about some hypothesis, event or uncertain quantity.

This definition, although is mathematically formulated, contains a

subjective component that reflects a human opinion.

Management of Uncertainty
Bayesian Method:

This concept is based on the principle that we have to know the probability of a previous event. The theorem provides a mathematical model to reason, combining the a previous belief with the evidence to estimate the uncertainty.

It allows us to express the probability P(A | B) (post probability) in terms of the conditional probability P(B | A), P(A) y P(B).

Management of Uncertainty

P(H | E) = P(H) * P(E | H) / P(E) E is the evidence and H is the hypothesis.

In general:

P E | H i * P H i P H i | E P E | H 1 * P H 1 ... P E | H n * P H n

Management of Uncertainty
Conditional and Combined Probability

In the real world the probability of occurrence of an event is hardly difficult to occur independently of other events. However, probabilities and uncertainty must work with events that are not independent.

The probability of occurrence of an event is always effected by

the conditions in which they occur.

The combined probability is the probability of occurrence of two events.

Management of Uncertainty

If two independent events A, B have probabilities P(A), P(B), the combined probability of both events is: P(A and B) = P(A) * P(B). P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A) * P(B)

The conditional probability relates the probability of an event given the occurrence of another event. The estimated probability of an event will change if the context changes.

Management of Uncertainty

Example: Probabilistic Sum CF = 60 X is volatile If X is high technology or X is in high demand. CF (X is volatile) = CF * {[(CF (stock AB is of high technology ) + (CF (stock AB is of high demand)] [(CF (stock AB is of high technology ) * (CF (stock AB is of high demand)]/100} / 100 = = 60 * {[(90 + 60] [(90 * 60)/100]}/100 57.6

Rule2:

Management of Uncertainty
Example :

Determine the probability that a person is a man, knowing that his age is 80 years.
Previously we know that: The probability that a person, randomly chosen, is a man is: 0.5

The probability that a person, randomly chosen, is 80 years old is: 0.005
The probability that any person, randomly chosen, is a man and 80 years old is: 0.002

Management of Uncertainty

The conditional probability of an event A, given the occurrence of an event B is: P(A | B) = P(A and B) / P(B)

Then: P(X is man | age of X is 80) = P(X is man and age of X is 80) / P(age of X is 80) = 0.002 / 0.005 = 0.4

When a probability of an event is assigned, the conditional probability takes into consideration the particular characteristics of the settings.

Management of Uncertainty

Difficulties

Management of Uncertainty

Difficulties
1. The Bayes law requires the availability of all previous and conditional probabilities. In practice, this can be difficult to

achieve.
2. The Bayes law is mathematical correct only if all possible results do not depend upon themselves. 3. As the knowledge base grows, it gets difficult to change (update) a probability, without causing other probabilities to change, in the domain space, in order to mitigate the effects and keep the assumption that: P(H1) + P(H2) + . . . + P(Hn) = 1.