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CHAPTER

Pemodelan dan Analisis

Pemodelan MSS
Merupakan elemen kunci bagi DSS

o Banyak kelas dalam pemodelan o Menggunakan teknik khusus di setiap model o Memungkinkan pengujian sering dilakukan untuk setiap solusi alternatif

Beberapa model sering disisipkan dalam sebuah DSS

SIMULASI

o Mengeksplorasi permasalahan secara lebih dekat o Mengidentifikasi solusi alternatif

Keputusan Pemanfaatan Lahan

DECISION ANALYSIS

Topik pengambilan keputusan yang paling menarik adalah decision tree (pohon keputusan).

Seorang pengusaha mempunyai lahan dan dia harus mengambil keputusan pemanfaatan lahannya.
Apakah lahannya akan dijual. Jika lahan dijual maka akan menghasilkan Rp 90 juta. Atau ditanami anggrek. Jika diusahakan tanaman anggrek ada dua kemungkinan: (1) jika beruntung ia akan memperoleh laba Rp 700 juta; (2) jika tidak beruntung ia akan rugi Rp 100 juta.
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Kemungkinan beruntung adalah 25%, dan kemung-kinan tidak beruntung adalah 75%. Bagaimana keputusan pengusaha tersebut?

Data & Decision Tree Results


Data disimpan pada file DECISION.DEC. Output (decision tree results, tree structure) dapat dilihat pada menu Windows. Decision Tree Results

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Tree Structure
Node name:1=start, 2=Bertanam anggrek, 3=Menjual lahan, 4=Beruntung, 5=Tidak beruntung

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Keputusan terbaik adalah bertanam anggrek dengan expected value Rp 100 juta.

BREAKEVEN/COST-VOLUME ANALYSIS
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Dalam menyusun perencanaan penjualan, manajemen membutuhkan informasi


Tingkat penjualan berapa yang harus dicapai agar diperoleh laba Pada tingkat penjualan berapa dicapai dicapai titik impas Tingkat penjualan berapa perusahaan akan menderita kerugian.

Alat bantu yang digunakan manajemen adalah analisis Breakeven Analysis (Cost vs Revenue), merupakan bagian dari Cost-Volume Analysis (CVA). Dalam analisis Breakeven hanya ada satu biaya tetap, satu biaya variabel, dan satu pendapatan per unit. Titik impas (Breakeven Point) menunjukkan volume atau Pendapatan yang hanya bisa menutup total cost.

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Penentuan Titik Impas pada Perusahaan Konfeksi

Kasus
Perusahaan konfeksi "Krishna" memproduksi dan menjual kaos oblong. Pada tahun lalu, dengan mengeluarkan biaya tetap Rp12 juta,- dan biaya variabel per unit Rp 20.000,-. perusahaan menetapkan harga jual kaos oblong Rp 35.000,- per potong.

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Berapa jumlah kaos oblong yang harus dijual oleh perusahaan agar diperoleh titik impas?

Data & Breakeven/CVA result

Graph of Breakeven Analysis

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(Breakeven result, Graph of Breakeven Analysis) dapat dilihat pada menu Windows. Breakeven Point dicapai pada volume 800 potong dan cost Rp 280 juta.

TEKNIK PERAMALAN KUALITATIF & KUANTITATIF (Contd)


Peramalan kuantitatif menggunakan data historis dan hubungan kausal (sebab-akibat) untuk meramalkan permintaan yang akan datang. Model seri waktu (time series)
Peramalan dengan penghalusan/pemulusan (smoothing): rata-rata bergerak dan penghalusan eksponensial Dekomposisi (trend, season, cyclic, random); metode box jenkins (autoregressive integrated moving average, ARIMA).

Model kausal, yakni (1) analisis regresi, seperti: regresi linier, curvilinier, dan variabel bebas kualitatif; Structural Equation Modeling (SEM).
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TAHAP PERAMALAN
Menentukan penggunaan peramalan itu, apa tujuannya. Memilih hal-hal yang akan diramal. Menentukan horison waktunya, jangka pendek/panjang. Memilih model peramalannya. Mengumpulkan data yang dibutuhkan untuk membuat ramalan. Membuat ramalan. Menerapkan hasilnya.
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PERAMALAN TUGAS MENANTANG


Asumsi yang beralasan mempengaruhi ketepatan peramalan yang dibuat manajer. Tidak ada metode peramalan yang sempurna untuk semua kondisi. Sekali ditemukan pendekatan yang memuaskan, manajer masih harus terus memantau dan mengawasi ramalan-ramalannya agar tidak menambah kesalahan. Peramalan adalah bagian dari tugas manajemen yang menantang sekaligus prestesius.

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Kasus: Peramalan Penjualan Sepeda Motor


Dealer sepeda motor di Denpasar ingin membuat peramalan akurat penjualannya untuk bulan berikutnya. Karena pabrik terletak di Jakarta, cukup sulit bagi dealer mengembalikan/memesan motor. Dianalisis dengan POM for Windows (prenticehall.com), pilih modul Forcasting. Data penjualan 12 bulan disimpan pada file FORECAST.FOR. Metode yang digunakan dipilih pada Method Box: Moving Averages. Kasus diselesaikan dengan Solve. Jika ada Edit data, klik Edit. Output dapat dilihat pada menu Windows. Peramalan penjualan bulan Januari adalah 15 unit.
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Penjualan Sepeda Motor Tahun Lalu

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Forecasting Results &Graph

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Learning Objectives
Understand basic concepts of MSS modeling. Describe MSS models interaction. Understand different model classes. Structure decision making of alternatives. Learn to use spreadsheets in MSS modeling. Understand the concepts of optimization, simulation, and heuristics. Learn to structure linear program modeling.

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Learning Objectives
Understand the capabilities of linear programming. Examine search methods for MSS models. Determine the differences between algorithms, blind search, heuristics. Handle multiple goals. Understand terms sensitivity, automatic, what-if analysis, goal seeking. Know key issues of model management.
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Dupont Simulates Rail Transportation System and Avoids Costly Capital Expense Vignette

Promodel simulation created representing entire transport system Applied what-if analyses Visual simulation Identified varying conditions Identified bottlenecks Allowed for downsized fleet without downsizing deliveries
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MSS Modeling
Key element in DSS Many classes of models Specialized techniques for each model Allows for rapid examination of alternative solutions Multiple models often included in a DSS Trend toward transparency
Multidimensional modeling exhibits as spreadsheet

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Simulations
Explore problem at hand Identify alternative solutions Can be object-oriented Enhances decision making View impacts of decision alternatives

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DSS Models
Algorithm-based models Statistic-based models Linear programming models Graphical models Quantitative models Qualitative models Simulation models
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Problem Identification
Environmental scanning and analysis Business intelligence Identify variables and relationships
Influence diagrams Cognitive maps

Forecasting
Fueled by e-commerce Increased amounts of information available through technology
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Static Models
Single photograph of situation Single interval Time can be rolled forward, a photo at a time Usually repeatable Steady state
Optimal operating parameters Continuous Unvarying Primary tool for process design

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Dynamic Model
Represent changing situations Time dependent Varying conditions Generate and use trends Occurrence may not repeat

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Decision-Making
Certainty
Assume complete knowledge All potential outcomes known Easy to develop Resolution determined easily Can be very complex

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Decision-Making
Uncertainty
Several outcomes for each decision Probability of occurrence of each outcome unknown Insufficient information Assess risk and willingness to take it Pessimistic/optimistic approaches

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Decision-Making
Probabilistic Decision-Making
Decision under risk Probability of each of several possible outcomes occurring Risk analysis
Calculate value of each alternative Select best expected value
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Influence Diagrams
Graphical representation of model Provides relationship framework Examines dependencies of variables Any level of detail Shows impact of change Shows what-if analysis

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Influence Diagrams
Variables: Decision
Intermediate or uncontrollable Result or outcome (intermediate or final)

Arrows indicate type of relationship and direction of influence

Certainty

Amount in CDs

Interest earned

Uncertainty
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Sales Price

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Influence Diagrams
Random (risk)
Place tilde above variables name
~ Demand Sales Sleep all day Graduate University Ski all day Get job

Preference
(double line arrow)

Arrows can be one-way or bidirectional, based upon the direction of influence

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Modeling with Spreadsheets


Flexible and easy to use End-user modeling tool Allows linear programming and regression analysis Features what-if analysis, data management, macros Seamless and transparent Incorporates both static and dynamic models
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Decision Tables
Multiple criteria decision analysis Features include:
Decision variables (alternatives) Uncontrollable variables Result variables

Applies principles of certainty, uncertainty, and risk


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Decision Tree
Graphical representation of relationships Multiple criteria approach Demonstrates complex relationships Cumbersome, if many alternatives

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MSS Mathematical Models


Link decision variables, uncontrollable variables, parameters, and result variables together
Decision variables describe alternative choices. Uncontrollable variables are outside decision-makers control. Fixed factors are parameters. Intermediate outcomes produce intermediate result variables. Result variables are dependent on chosen solution and uncontrollable variables.

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MSS Mathematical Models


Nonquantitative models
Symbolic relationship Qualitative relationship Results based upon
Decision selected Factors beyond control of decision maker Relationships amongst variables

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Mathematical Programming
Tools for solving managerial problems Decision-maker must allocate resources amongst competing activities Optimization of specific goals Linear programming
Consists of decision variables, objective function and coefficients, uncontrollable variables (constraints), capacities, input and output coefficients

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Multiple Goals
Simultaneous, often conflicting goals sought by management Determining single measure of effectiveness is difficult Handling methods:
Utility theory Goal programming Linear programming with goals as constraints Point system

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Sensitivity, What-if, and Goal Seeking Analysis


Sensitivity
Assesses impact of change in inputs or parameters on solutions Allows for adaptability and flexibility Eliminates or reduces variables Can be automatic or trial and error

What-if
Assesses solutions based on changes in variables or assumptions

Goal seeking
Backwards approach, starts with goal Determines values of inputs needed to achieve goal Example is break-even point determination

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Search Approaches
Analytical techniques (algorithms) for structured problems
General, step-by-step search Obtains an optimal solution

Blind search
Complete enumeration
All alternatives explored

Incomplete
Partial search

Achieves particular goal May obtain optimal goal


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Search Approaches
Heurisitic
Repeated, step-by-step searches Rule-based, so used for specific situations Good enough solution, but, eventually, will obtain optimal goal Examples of heuristics
Tabu search
Remembers and directs toward higher quality choices

Genetic algorithms
Randomly examines pairs of solutions and mutations

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Simulations
Imitation of reality Allows for experimentation and time compression Descriptive, not normative Can include complexities, but requires special skills Handles unstructured problems Optimal solution not guaranteed Methodology
Problem definition Construction of model Testing and validation Design of experiment Experimentation Evaluation Implementation

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Simulations
Probabilistic independent variables
Discrete or continuous distributions

Time-dependent or time-independent Visual interactive modeling


Graphical Decision-makers interact with simulated model may be used with artificial intelligence

Can be objected oriented


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Model-Based Management System


Software that allows model organization with transparent data processing Capabilities
DSS user has control Flexible in design Gives feedback GUI based Reduction of redundancy Increase in consistency Communication between combined models
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Model-Based Management System


Relational model base management system
Virtual file Virtual relationship

Object-oriented model base management system


Logical independence

Database and MIS design model systems


Data diagram, ERD diagrams managed by CASE tools

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