RISET EKONOMI MINGGUAN

Analisis Pasar dan Ekonomi

Currencies w-w%
1.50% 1.06% 1.00% 0.50% 0.06% 0.00% -0.50% -1.00% -1.50% -0.88% -0.74% -0.28% 0.30%

Selasa, 22 Oktober 2013

Ulasan minggu lalu

Optimisme mendominasi pergerakkan pasar global minggu lalu. Setelah terperangkap di dalam kecemasan shutdown dan ancaman default AS, investor kembali fokus ke penundaan tapering the Fed. Terjadinya shutdown diperkirakan memperlambat pertumbuhan ekonomi AS dan penyerapan tenaga kerja. Indeks S&P 500 yang minggu lalu naik 2.42% w-w menjadi pemicu utama penguatan indeks saham global. Jakarta Composite Index berhasil menguat 0.59% w-w bersamaan dengan rupiah yang juga menguat 1.46% ww. Dollar Index yang terpangkas 0.88% w-w mendorong penguatan hampir seluruh mata uang di dunia. Pasar obligasi juga terdorong oleh optimisme terlihat dari terpangkasnya tingkat imbal hasil. Dibandingkan dengan US Treasury 10 thn yang hanya turun 10.9bps, tingkat imbal hasil Obligasi Pemerintah Indonesia lebih unggul setelah turun 50.7bps w-w. Data 17 Oktober menunjukkan persentase kepemilikan asing pada obligasi pemerintah masih stabil di kisaran 30%. Walaupun aliran dana asing mulai kembali masuk dan kurs rupiah menguat, tampaknya kondisi likuiditas dollar belum memuaskan Bank Indonesia. Minggu lalu BI kembali sepakat dengan Korea Selatan untuk melakukan currency swap sebesar USD10bln. BI juga menjaga kursnya di kisaran 10,300 di atas kurs NDF 1bln yang hanya berkutat di kisaran 10,800-11,200 per dollar.

-0.71%

-1.46%

-2.00%
IDR JISDOR Dollar Index USD/THB USD/MYR USD/BRL USD/PHP USD/INR EUR/USD

Indices w-w%
3.00%

2.50% 2.09%
2.00% 1.61% 1.50% 1.09% 1.00% 0.50% 0.00% STI Hang Seng JCI KLCI Nikkei 225 KOSPI DAX PCOMP SET 0.78% 0.59% 1.36% 1.85%

2.42%

1.82%

0.41%

0.52%

FTSE 100 S&P 500

Bonds w-w bps

(0.70) (10.00) (3.30) (3.70)

(10.94)
(20.00)

(15.00)

Pasar minggu ini

Di awal minggu ini penguatan di pasar mulai reda, tetapi data pekerjaan AS yang diumumkan Selasa malam mengembalikan optimisme investor. Data Nonfarm payrolls diumumkan hanya bertambah 148 ribu, jauh di bawah ekspektasi pasar yang 180 ribu. Walupun tingkat pengangguran turun ke 7.2%, pasar melihat bahwa shutdown yang terjadi menghambat penyerapan tenaga kerja sehingga tapering akan molor lebih lama lagi. Data tersebut harus dikonfirmasi oleh FOMC meeting di akhir Oktober. Sementara itu survei bloomberg terhadap jadwal tapering menunjukkan pesimisme bahwa the Fed akan melakukannya dalam waktu dekat. Hasil survei memprediksi the Fed akan mulai melakukan tapering pada 18-19 Maret tahun depan dengan penurunan pembelian obligasi bulanan dari USD85bln ke USD70bln. Yang mengejutkan, pada akhir tahun depan the Fed diharapkan sudah tidak lagi melakukan pembelian obligasi. Optimisme penundaan tapering masih akan membuat pelemahan dollar terjaga sehingga mendukung penguatan mata uang lain di dunia. Kurs rupiah NDF juga diperkirakan menguat walaupun BI sepertinya masih nyaman untuk menjaga kurs JISDOR di kisaran 11,300an.

(30.00)

(40.00)

(50.00)

(50.70)
(60.00) Philly 10y Bund 10y Japanese 10y UST 10y Brazil 10y Indonesian 10y

Commodities w-w%
4.00% 3.46% 3.00%

2.00% 0.89% 0.42% 0.00% 0.00%

1.00%

-1.00% -1.20% -2.00% Oil Brent Oil WTI Rice CPO Coal Gold

-1.19%

Source: Bloomberg

Rangga Cipta

Economist
+6221 2854 2396 rangga.cipta@samuel.co.id

This document is for information only and for the use of the recipient. It is not to be reproduced or copied or made available to others. Under no circumstances is it to be considered as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any security. Any recommendation contained in this report may not be suitable for all investors. Moreover, although the information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, its accuracy, completeness and reliability cannot be guaranteed. All rights reserved by PT Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia.

RISET EKONOMI MINGGUAN

Chart 1. Rupiah and Jakarta Composite Index

12,500

USD/IDR NDF 1 mth

12,000

11,500

Better Chinas GDP

US nonfarm payroll

11,000

Inflation and trade figures

10,500

10,000

5000

4800

4600

Jakarta Composite Index

FOMC meeting

4400

4200

4000

3800

7/26/2013

8/19/2013

8/23/2013

9/16/2013

9/20/2013

9/30/2013

10/4/2013

11/5/2013

10/14/2013

10/18/2013

10/26/2013

10/30/2013

10/10/2013

10/16/2013

10/22/2013

10/24/2013

10/28/2013

11/9/2013

10/2/2013

10/8/2013

11/1/2013

11/3/2013

11/7/2013

7/24/2013

7/30/2013

8/13/2013

8/15/2013

8/21/2013

8/27/2013

8/29/2013

9/10/2013

9/12/2013

9/18/2013

9/24/2013

9/26/2013

11/11/2013

Source: Bloomberg

PT SAMUEL SEKURITAS INDONESIA

This document is for information only and for the use of the recipient. It is not to be reproduced or copied or made available to others. Under no circumstances is it to be considered as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any security. Any recommendation contained in this report may not be suitable for all investors. Moreover, although the information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, its accuracy, completeness and reliability cannot be guaranteed. All rights reserved by PT Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia.

11/13/2013

8/5/2013

8/9/2013

9/2/2013

9/6/2013

8/1/2013

8/7/2013

9/4/2013

RISET EKONOMI MINGGUAN

Chart 2. Real Output

6.40% 20.00%

Chart 3. Prices
9.50%

6.36%
6.30% 6.20%

Inflation y-y%

Core y-y%
8.40%

18.00% 16.00% 14.00% 12.00% 10.00%

8.50% 7.50% 6.50% 5.50% 4.72% 4.50% 3.50% 2.50% Jan-12 Mar-12 May-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Dec-12 Feb-13 Apr-13 Jun-13 Aug-13

6.10%
6.00% 5.90% 5.80% 5.70% 5.60%

GDP y-y

Investment y-y (RHS)

7.55% 8.00% 6.00% 5.81% 4.00%

2.00% 0.00%
Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13

5.50%

Chart 4. Interest Rates

BI rate
7.50% 7.00% 6.50% 6.00% 5.50% 5.00% 4.50% 4.00% 3.50% 3.00% Jan-12 Mar-12 May-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Jan-13 Mar-13 May-13 Jul-13 Sep-13 5.75%

Chart 5. Trade
JIBOR ON
7.25%

USD mln
20,000 18,000

Trade Balance (LHS)

Exports

Imports

USD mln
1,500

1,000
500 -

16,000
14,000 12,000

10,000
8,000 6,000

(500)
(1,000) (1,500)

4,000
2,000 Jan-12 Mar-12 May-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Jan-13 Mar-13 May-13 Jul-13

(2,000)
(2,500)

Chart 6. Foreign Reserves

Foreign on Bonds %
36% 34% 32% 30% 28% 26% 24% 22% 20% Jan-12 Mar-12 May-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Jan-13 Mar-13 May-13 Jul-13

Chart 7. Currency
Foreign Reserves (USD bln) - RHS
120.0 115.0 110.0 105.0 100.0 95.0 90.0 85.0 80.0 75.0 70.0
8,500 8,000 Jan-12 Mar-12 May-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Jan-13 Mar-13 May-13 Jul-13 Sep-13 9,500 9,000 95 90 11,000 10,500 10,000 12,000 11,500

USD/IDR
11,350

70

Nominal Effective Exchange Rate Index (RHS in reverse order)

75

80

85

100

Source: Bloomberg, Bank Indonesia, Ministry of Finance, IMF, BIS

PT SAMUEL SEKURITAS INDONESIA

This document is for information only and for the use of the recipient. It is not to be reproduced or copied or made available to others. Under no circumstances is it to be considered as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any security. Any recommendation contained in this report may not be suitable for all investors. Moreover, although the information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, its accuracy, completeness and reliability cannot be guaranteed. All rights reserved by PT Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia.

Research Team
Muhamad Alfatih, CSA, CFTe

Senior Technical Analyst

Muhammad Isfandi Indices, equities +6221 2854 8329

Indices, equities, commodities, currencies +6221 2854 8129 m.alfatih@samuel.co.id Adrianus Bias Prasuryo

Quantitative Technical Analyst

Rangga Cipta

Economist

+6221 2854 8396 rangga.cipta@samuel.co.id Yualdo T. Yudoprawiro

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Analyst

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Analyst

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Analyst

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Small Cap +6221 2854 8342 todd.showalter@samuel.co.id

Research Associate
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This document is for information only and for the use of the recipient. It is not to be reproduced or copied or made available to others. Under no circumstances is it to be considered as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any security. Any recommendation contained in this report may not be suitable for all investors. Moreover, although the information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, its accuracy, completeness and reliability cannot be guaranteed. All rights reserved by PT Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia.