September 19, 2013 Mumbai

Gold loan NBFCs growth and profitability challenges to continue

Profitability to decline by nearly 75 basis points
The Reserve Bank of Indias (RBIs) new guidelines on lending against gold will weaken the competitive positions, growth prospects, profitability, and asset quality of gold loan non-banking financial companies (NBFCs). CRISIL expects the profitability of these NBFCs to decline by nearly 75 basis points (bps), and their loan books to decline in the near term. However, the new guidelines, issued on September 16, 2013, will promote orderly, sustainable growth in the sector over the long term. Implementation of the RBI guidelines will weaken the competitive positions of gold loan NBFCs vis-vis those of banks and the unorganised sector. The introduction of uniform valuation methodology for jewellery will limit the flexibility to offer loans at higher effective loan-to-value (LTV) ratios, and prompt customers to move to other lenders. Says Pawan Agrawal, Senior Director, CRISIL Ratings, Borrowers with limited stocks of jewellery will move to the unorganised sector that will continue to offer loans at higher LTV ratios. Interest-sensitive borrowers will shift to banks that offer loans at much lower costs for similar or higher LTV ratios. The growth of the gold loan NBFC sector will also be constrained by two stipulations in the new guidelines: that NBFCs take the regulators approval before opening new branches, and disburse higher-value (above Rs.1 lakh) loans through cheques. Moreover, intensifying competition will lead to reduced yield for gold loan companies. The detailed norms on auctioning will also increase the operational costs and challenges in auctioning gold. The desire to limit delinquencies to avoid auctioning will lead to higher investments in collection systems. As a combined impact of these developments, the gold loan NBFCs return on assets (Ro A) is expected to decline by nearly 75 bps. Asset quality for the sector is under stress, and may remain thus over the next few quarters, on account of high-LTV lending carried out in the past. Says Rupali Shanker, Director, CRISIL Ratings, In the near term, delinquencies will increase. However, over the long term, assetside risks will materially reduce, given that effective LTV ratio at 60 per cent reduces the probability of default on future originations. The NBFCs will take around six quarters to fully transition to the new landscape as envisaged by the regulations. During this period they will face challenges in terms of growth, asset quality and profitability. Over the long term, however, enhanced transparency envisaged by the guidelines will strengthen the confidence of stakeholders in the sector. The rating outlook for the three large CRISIL rated NBFCs is Negative reflecting the potential asset quality and profitability challenges that these NBFCs face. The new guidelines are expected to keep up the asset quality and profitability pressures on the NBFCs in near term. CRISIL will assess the impact of these guidelines on the credit risk profiles of gold loan NBFCs rated by it, and announce rating or outlook changes, if any, in due course.

September 19, 2013

www.crisil.com

Media Contacts Tanuja Abhinandan Communications and Brand Management CRISIL Limited Tel: +91-22-3342 1818 Mobile: +91- 98192 48980 Email: tanuja.abhinandan@crisil.com Jyoti Parmar Communications and Brand Management CRISIL Limited Tel: +91-22- 3342 1835 E-mail: jyoti.parmar@crisil.com

Analytical Contacts Pawan Agrawal Senior Director CRISIL Ratings Tel: +91-22-3342 3301 Email: pawan.agrawal@crisil.com

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Rupali Shanker Director -CRISIL Ratings Tel: +91-22-3342 1952 E-mail: rupali.shanker@crisil.com

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September 19, 2013

www.crisil.com