B

Aaron L Friedberg, A Contest for Supremacy: China, America, and the Struggle for Mastery in Asia, WW Norton & Company, New York, 2011, ISBN 9780393068283, 360pp, US$27.95
Reviewed by Dr Michael Lankowski, Strategic Policy Division, Department of Defence

he relationship between China and the United States is crucial to our regions strategic stability and a central concern in Australian defence and security policy debates. In A Contest for Supremacy, Professor Aaron Friedberg provides a broad assessment of the Sino-US relationship, highlighting the growing risks for the United States as a result of Chinas growing power, and sets out policy recommendations to strengthen US posture and influence in the Asia-Pacific. The books title neatly communicates its key message, that increasingly intense strategic rivalry is emerging between China and the United States, and that Chinas rise poses a fundamental challenge to US primacy and national interests in Asia. Indeed, Friedberg warns that if current trends continue, we are on track to lose our geopolitical contest with China (p. 6). Friedberg assesses seven factors that shape the SinoUS relationship, arguing that the two most divisive factorsthe narrowing power gap between the United States and China, and the differences in their political systems and valuesare also likely to become the most decisive (pp. 3738). He observes the sobering historical likelihood for changing power relativities to result in conflict between great powers, and convincingly argues that SinoUS strategic competition has deep roots that cannot simply be attributed to misperceptions or policy errors. The book acknowledges other more stabilising factors including economic interdependence, Chinas integration into international institutions and nuclear deterrence, but judges that they can only constrain Sino-US rivalry rather than reverse it. For Friedberg, only the emergence of liberal democracy in China can lead to stable and lasting peace. The second part of the book provides a concise overview of the relationships evolution from 1949 to 2010 and the emergence of a US policy consensus under

Australian Army Journal Volume IX, Number 3 page 165

Book review Dr Michael Lankowski

the Clinton, Bush and Obama administrationsa combination of engagement and containment which Friedberg awkwardly labels as congagement. It then assesses Chinese strategic policy and intentions, outlining Chinas cautious but steady approach to pursuing regional preponderance in Asia. This cogent assessment is supported by a useful appendix listing Chinese sources and authors. The last chapters assess the changing balance of power and influence between the United States and China, including Friedbergs perspective on Australias response to Chinas rise (pp. 20709), before setting out policy recommendations. Friedberga neo-conservative who served as Deputy Assistant for National Security Affairs to Vice President Dick Cheneycritiques US policy for being too heavily weighted towards engagement. He is especially critical of what he perceives as a Shanghai Coalition of American businessmen, politicians, officials and academics that is too eager to please China at the expense of US interests (pp. 19799). Friedberg is not only sceptical about the policy prescriptions of liberals, but also so-called realists who do not share his emphasis on promoting US values. The book concludes by advocating steps to strengthen US balancing against China, through its regional military posture, alliances and diplomacy. A number of these steps have been taken by the Obama Administration over the last few years, as part of the US pivot or rebalancing to the Asia-Pacific that has become even more explicit since A Contest for Supremacy was written. These developments highlight both strengths and weaknesses of the book. Friedberg is convincing in his assessment of fundamental geopolitical divergences driving intensifying strategic competition between China and the United States. Many of his conclusions and recommendations about US strategy towards China are prudent, well supported by balanced analysis and being implemented by US policy-makers. Yet recent developments also undermine Friedbergs more excessive criticisms of US policy and the alleged Shanghai Coalition. His vehemence often seems to reflect frustration with debates during the 1990s rather than a balanced depiction of current US policy trends. Similarly, a number of specific judgements are questionable; for example, Friedbergs depiction of US entry to the East Asia Summit as a concession to China (pp. 16970) or his enthusiasm for a US-led community of Asian democracies to promote liberty throughout the region (pp. 28182). Overall, I found A Contest for Supremacy to provide an excellent realpolitik assessment of the SinoUS relationship, while being less convincing in some of its arguments and policy advocacy. It should be read by anyone interested in AsiaPacific strategic affairs, and Australian readers will find it particularly useful to compare with Hugh Whites Power Shift essay from 2010.

page 166 Volume IX, Number 3 Australian Army Journal