On Scientific Decision Making Process

Group 1 Team 3

How Can Decision Being Scientific?

Narrowdownthescopeof thinkingonHowMilitary D i i M Decision Making ki P Processb being i Scientific

Introduction
AIM:todeterminehowtomake ascientificdecisionintheMDMP

SCOPEOFPRESENTATION Theoreticalframework ThescientificStructureofMDMP anditsdrawbacks Proposedsolutions Conclusions

Theoreticalframework
Whatdowe understandby scientificandscience? Whatdecisions? Whataboutthe environment? Whatphilosophy aboutMDMP?

ThescientificStructureof DMPanditsdrawbacks
Input Information Fog and Friction

Decision Maker
FRICTION

Neurosis Emotions

Group Think - Subjectivity

Subject of Decision Maker

FRICTION

Output of Making Instructions

Micromanagement

ThescientificStructureof MDMPanditsdrawbacks
Drawbacks Description is given by the uncertainty of the actual forces in the b ttl fi ld such battlefield h as enemy, allies, civilians, armed groups. Solution Develop a scientific IPB. Not great amount of information means better b tt MDMP. MDMP It could ld be an Information Overload Technology could help to share IPB products Is not necessary to be a scientist Is only a common scientist. sense when you give more than one task, give priority among them. them The technology could help if make easy the understanding of the task.

The Fog

In this step the friction is represented by the task given to commander in other The Friction words, WT. . . . the senior commander wants my unit should do!!!!!

ThescientificStructureof MDMPanditsdrawbacks
Drawbacks Description Military organization could attract obsessive compulsive people, when became commanders, they could be victims of cognitive g dissonance The human brain decide more o e by e emotions ot o s t than a reason Solution Scientific leaders selection and training. training No technology against cognitive dissonance

Neurosis

E ti Emotions

The technology could help to show s o o only yt the ec critical t ca information to focus the rationality in such decision.

CognitiveDissonance
Cognitive dissonance is an uncomfortable feeling caused by holding conflicting ideas simultaneously. i lt l The Th theory th of f cognitive dissonance proposes that people have a motivational drive to reduce dissonance. dissonance They do this by changing their attitudes, beliefs, and actions. Dissonance is also reduced by justifying, blaming, and denying. It is one of the most influential y studied theories and extensively in social psychology.

CognitiveDissonance
Cognitive dissonance is an uncomfortable feeling caused by holding conflicting ideas simultaneously. i lt l The Th theory th of f cognitive dissonance proposes that people have a motivational drive to reduce dissonance. dissonance They do this by changing their attitudes, beliefs, and actions. Dissonance is also reduced by justifying, blaming, and denying. It is one of the most influential y studied theories and extensively in social psychology.

CognitiveDissonance
MOVIE: a bridge g too far http://www.megau pload.com/?d=4ZB 2F23S&w=696&h= 359

ThescientificStructureof MDMPanditsdrawbacks
Drawbacks The undesired effects of the team work Description It is the general designation for a great amount of phenomenon when a group should develop a decision making gp process. We only y talk about the Group Think and Abilene Paradox Solution Again the training and leaders selection. selection From the sociology we can build up groups that think in different ways. y The technology gy could help to get information and to link this groups.

e CO COA is s not ot related e ated by The e CO COA should s ou d be The Subjectivity the Mission or in not considered as hypothesis in COA confronted against the ECOA and should be analyzed and verified by experimentation

ThescientificStructureof MDMPanditsdrawbacks
Drawbacks Description Subordinate leaders dont carry out orders in the intention of commanders and wait for orders under unexpected circumstances or carry on the commander orders when the situation has changed The information advantage is nullified when the Cdr tries to run decisions up and down the chain of command. Solution Auftragstaktik: is a philosophy of MDMP. It implies leaders leaders scientific education by pedagogies that enhance initiative, freedom of action and responsibility. Also implied the confidence between high and lower level leaders. The technology should be focused in the future threats. The present ones in subordinates s AOR of leaders are their business

Friction (again..)

Micromana gement t

Conclusions
Art Understand Explanation p Divergences Assumptions Perception Concepts p Why?

Intuitive Uncertainty

Analytical Certainly

Good planners balanced between analysis and intuition

Science Knowledge Concrete Observation Convergence Facts Tasks How?

The nature gives the human brain with analytical and intuitive means, The the and human brain with analytical and intuitive so is no nature reasongives to block avoid to use one of them instead of the means, is no reason to block and avoid to use onethe of them other. The so rationally tools should be well balanced with intuitive instead of the other. other The rationally tools should be well balanced tools tools. with facts the intuitive tools. less facts more intuitive. More more rational, More facts more rational, less and facts more intuitive Technology should mean timing get into the Enemys OODA loop.

Conclusions
Art Intuitive Analytical Understand Ag good plan violently y executed NOW is Explanation p Certainly betterDivergences than a perfect plan next week. Assumptions Uncertainty Perception Concepts pGEN GEORGE S. PATTON JR Why? Science Knowledge Concrete Observation Convergence Facts Tasks How?

Good planners balanced between analysis and intuition

The nature gives the human brain with analytical and intuitive means, The the and human brain with analytical and intuitive so is no nature reasongives to block avoid to use one of them instead of the means, is no reason to block and avoid to use onethe of them other. The so rationally tools should be well balanced with intuitive instead of the other. other The rationally tools should be well balanced tools tools. with facts the intuitive tools. less facts more intuitive. More more rational, More facts more rational, less and facts more intuitive Technology should mean timing get into the Enemys OODA loop.

Conclusions
The MDMP is a science and an art No need large amount of information we need timely and accurate intelligence. The MDMP could be scientific if the selection and training of leaders b became more scientific. i tifi Here H psychology and sociology are useful. The MDMP should trend to be scientific However never will be scientific. absolutely scientific because the human nature. The technology is great, great use it a lot but dont become a technoslave

Conclusions
Trained and experienced Leaders Scientific IPB Scientific COA

Psychological and Sociological shortcomings

Scientific MDMP