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Written and Published by: Michael S.

Jenkins

STOCK CYCLES FORECAST


P.O. Box 652 Cathedral Station PO, New York, N.Y. 10025-9998 WWW.StockCyclesForecast.com Volume 25 Issue 14 __________________________________________________________________________________________________

February 26, 2010 As Good As It Gets

Dow 10,321

If you remember the Jack Nicholson movie 'As Good As It Gets', his crazy, obsessive compulsive character goes into the psychiatrists' office and shocks the other waiting patients by declaring 'What if this is as good as it gets?' Not a pleasant thought if you have a mental disorder thinking there might be hope for a cure. The same shocking thought is just now seeping into the minds of the Obama team of economists and dimwits, and the average perma-bull institutional investor will soon get the message too. The 'new' average unemployment will be 8% to 9% for many years and GDP growth will barely keep pace with population growth but not with the compounding of interest on the national debt. The average P.E. will drop from 14-18 to 8-12 over the coming years and that's a stock market half of current levels in a recovering economic period. The only question seems to be if this realization shock will come suddenly in a crash and panic when Greece goes under, or will it be an endless drift where the masses never wake up until the bottom and are then told it's too late to sell. California is bankrupt and we can all guess how many months they can give out I.O.U's instead of checks before there is rioting in the streets, and only a week or two later the huge state pension funds will wake up to the fact that they are so underfunded that any further loss in the stock market will be unacceptable and they rush for the exits. Most of the really big institutional money in the market is scared and can't afford to face a board of directors with another 20% to 30% down year. The slightest hint of a major correction could cause a stampede.

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The chart above is the Vedic master cycle of 120 years and it also ties in with all our 10 year decennial patterns and was shown in a past issue. The recent 'deadness' of the market seems similar and the bulls are all expecting 1200 and the bears 800 or 600, so why not please them both and chop them up at the same time? The 'theoretical' cycles all peak by early March and go down all year and yet there are some individual bullish cycles that fall after this period, the last one at the end of May. The biggest disaster in our lifetimes from a cyclic point of view is scheduled to hit from June to September and that's where fortunes will be made, but mostly lost. The tricky part is if this sudden up surge pattern hits first to squeeze the shorts. I have to see it to believe it but my strategy will be to scalp long above 1112 and be short below 1090.

While I don't favor the bullish outcomes I do like to present a 'fair and balanced' newsletter and the above 'Foldback' method does indeed still have the potential for a 1200 to 1275 spike should economic good news surprise everyone. The month of March is the key with expected 'green shoots' and positive employment figures as well as the quadruple witch expiration which in the year 2000 led to the biggest short squeeze in history. Combine that with my long standing Tan 30 deg dates of March 25th and April 8th and it could make a lot of sense if the recent low turns out to be a spring board to a big culminating top. Of course the 1980 pattern has an ongoing panic straight down until April 8th, so go with the flow. Strategy is very simple so don't fight the tape. Be short below 1090 S&P and be long above 1112 S&P. Below is the 60 minute chart of the S&P proxy, the SPY. It shows the declining 90 degree angle off the top which usually defines a correction trend and it is at the point it can go either way. The repeat 'fractal' pattern from last November and December would show a choppy March with a culmination spike into early April, basically following a 90 day cycle like we just saw at the Jan 14th top. The alternative is a foldback back down once we break 1080 S&P.

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The REAL QUESTION to be answered is of course whether the 'crash of '08-09' was the first leg down and the recent rally to the 50% retracement level will now result in a second leg down to new lows, OR was that huge decline a final culmination of the rolling top starting in the year 2000 and culminating 9 years later. This weekly chart above looks to be following a fractal pattern from the October 2007 top with another big leg just

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ahead. If it is not a repeat fractal they could go up and keep going. Strategy is pretty simple...be long a rising market above 1112 and short below 1090. Are The Mayans Short The Market For 2012? The precession of the equinoxes is the movement of the spinning earth which completes a full circle in about 26,000 years when the line up of the earth and our sun go thru the galactic center axis of our Milky Way Galaxy. It's like a spinning top where the top of the top describes a circle as it wobbles and this wobble spin of the Earth takes from 21,600 to 26,000 years to complete depending on what type of coordinate system you are looking at. The intellectual ideal for a 'created' universe would be one arc minute per year (60 minutes to a degree, 360 to a circle, or 60 x 360 = 21,600 years, but the observed present rate of speed is about 50.3 arc seconds (60 seconds to a minute) or (60 x 60 x 360) /50.3 = 25,765 years. We don't really know if this 50.3 arc second present movement varies in speed over 26,000 years so we can only guess. In any event it's a long time. The Mayan calendar has symbols which indicate the 'end of the world' on December 21, 2012 and this coincides exactly with the sun lining up with the axis plane of our Galaxy for the first time in this nearly 26,000 year cycle. When this line up occurs the plane of our sun and earth will line up with the plane of the galaxy and there may be huge electromagnetic disturbances. My personal opinion is that this will be the 'flip' of the north and south poles of the earth which we know historically takes place from 10,000 to 100,000 year intervals because we can see catastrophic evidence in lava flow particles changing north south orientations virtually overnight, as well as microscopic dead animals in stream sediment blocks which have magnetic particles in their bodies and they are lined up in opposite north south directions during these regularly recurring catastrophic times. Now the earth is a spinning top with a core of molten metal and as it rotates it creates an electromagnetic field around the earth and this is what keeps us alive as these magnetic fields create the Van Allen Belts which trap and block cosmic rays from reaching the earth and killing us all with a really bad microwave sun burn. It is my opinion that the so called 'climate change' is nothing more than this prelude to the earth's north / south pole flip and there is evidence that the north pole magnetic field is now diminishing while the south pole field is stronger than ever recorded. This is causing wild extremes in the weather and the only relevant question is if this is correct and the poles are about to shift, will the entire planet flip and we all drown as the oceans cover us ( i.e. Noah's Ark), or will just the electromagnetic field flip in an instant giving us a really bad storm and not actually changing the orientation of the earth itself. In any event we are starting to see major earthquakes and 'storms of the century' so we may see harmonic footprints of the coming event in the stock market patterns. The likely last 'harmonic' is one degree back and at 50.3 seconds this is about 71.6 years but 71 or 72 years is a close fit. That would be 1938 or 1939. The first chart on the next page is the 1939 pattern and it shows a March low the prior year and a March high in the current year with a big 'crash' into my April 8th date. There is then another rally back towards the top area but this is all within the framework of a declining market for another two years to new lows. In this pattern the most danger for the year is over the next 90 days. The chart below the 1939 one is the same chart flipped upside down to show our current rising market pattern with the harmonic of 72 years back (1938) which had a March crash low instead of a one year rally like our current situation so I had to invert the chart to show this pattern. It's a bit hard to read but the big high on the left side of the chart following the large one year rally shows where we would be in time on this 72 year harmonic. This pattern shows a final high in March 2010 and a decline lasting the rest of the year but not actually taking out last year's low. This pattern also is interesting in that it looks like a sudden spike high to a new high in the month of March just before it all collapses (perhaps the Working Group will work when Greece goes under).

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we would be here

The pattern on this above inverted chart shows a last spike short squeeze fitting the pattern from 1890 on the first page and also the year 2000 big March spike. It may not come but if we go sideways without more downside for another week they could squeeze the quadruple witch expiration where the S&P futures may be all short. Of course ALL these patterns are suckers bets because they all collapse and go down all year so you really need to just watch for the 'unexpected' bad economic news releases each week.
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I brought up these charts from 1938-39 because they are a 1 degree harmonic of the Mayan prophecy for the winter solstice of 2012. It's debatable if this Prophecy even exists so we need to test it. Legitimate cycles cast their shadows both before and after the event. My first '15 minutes of fame' occurred in 1987 when I correctly forecasted both the day of the 1987 top and the day of the 1987 crash low. I could do this because I noted a Fibonacci series of numbers that were counting down to a 'zero' point that must be important and then I researched the cycle and found its cause. If we count backwards from December 21, 2012 to see if a potential countdown series exists we see the following:

These are weekly Fibonacci cycles with the August 27th one being week 121, and the close March 19th one, 144. Since the March 19th one coincides with the options expiration it will perhaps reinforce the cycle and that could be a huge short squeeze or collapse. From the looks of these past rhythms it does appear that the year 2012 will be eventful. The US Dollar is important this year and any 'panic' will certainly show up in Dollar demand, and a recovery, in its weakness. This chart of the Dollar Index shows a very strong up trend but at a point where a two or three week consolidation or decline could be seen. This chart usually moves opposite to the S&P.

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Goldman Sachs was an early leader but topped way back in September. Earnings will be under a lot of pressure for numerous reasons, and government investigations into their trading practices and involvement in Greece debt swaps could cause real problems. While the chart could be making a foldback with a low here and a run back to $200, it's a 50/50 bet it goes to $130 then $100 again. Stay short only under $162.

Home Depot is breaking out on an aggressive pattern that is going 'vertical' in a parabolic so it will be a major leadership name or it will top and reverse very suddenly and collapse. Clearly it's a bet that the economy is recovering so when they reverse on this one you know they will give up on the market rally.

Oracle has been steadily rising all year and is one of the few stocks that has exceeded the tops of 2007 and 2008 proving that it is still in a long term bull market. If it has a 10 year cycle from 2000 it could still be strong for another six months or more. It's a buy above $23. Below are listed cyclic turns on individual stocks indicated for the coming time period. These turns have been generated from a computer program I give out in my personal seminars and is usually quite accurate. The following stocks have tradable cycle turns during this coming time period: HGSI LVS TNH PG SNDA ISRG WDC GE KO MSFT UIS 3/01 3/01 3/01 3/02 3/02 3/02 3/03 3/03 3/03 3/01 3/01 GS JNJ UTX COST TRV MRK WFC IBM SOHU CSCO HD 3/04 3/05 3/05 3/05 3/05 3/05 3/08 3/08 3/08 3/08 3/08 GNK AMD FSLR GOOG TXN AXP VZ F AAPL WMT HAL 3/10 3/11 3/11 3/11 3/11 3/11 3/12 3/15 3/15 3/15 3/15 AMZN ISRG NFLX RIG MCD MSFT MMM VZ HGSI 3/17 3/17 3/17 3/17 3/17 3/17 3/19 3/19 3/19

DNDN 3/03 DD 3/09 WYNN 3/16

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DATE 1 2 3 4 5 8 9 10 11 12 15 16 17 18 19

March Activity Calendar UP /DOWN DAILY WEEKLY DAY D * * D D U * U D U U * * D U U * D U D U * *

HOURLY 12 10 3 4 10 12 12 12 11 10 10 1 12 2 3

Notes: U means up day, D means down day. Trend changes indicated by the * will generally be more accurate than the frequent U/D day indications and will usually trend in the same direction until the next *. Hourly turns are given in local New York City (Eastern) times, i.e.10=10 AM EST.

Summary March is the big pivotal month this year with BIG turns near the 19th and 25th. The 10 year cycle had a huge short squeeze straight up, but the 30 year cycle goes straight down so use 1080 as a pivot. Upside targets are 1115, 1150, 1175 and 1200, while down side is 1025, 990, and 850. The early part of the month looks very choppy with a lot of alternating swings.

My new trading system the Michael S. Jenkins Secret Angle Method is selling great and you can check the website for more information on this great discovery of mine. This is the method I used to predict the March 6th low from the October '07 top in my daily email service. Also for $20 US, or $30 Non US, you can order my MTA video presentation and slides..it's the best buy of your life!!!
Stock Cycles Forecast voicemail telephone number is (212) 866-2934, but I rarely answer phone messages. To get a quick response it is better to use email at: mjenkins@Stockcyclesforecast.com , or Mikecyc@aol.com. Let me know if you can get email delivery of the newsletter as it is at least two to three days faster than regular mail. Stock Cycles Forecast is published approximately every three weeks. Annual subscriptions to the newsletter including the
nightly telephone update are $500, a six month subscription is $265. One-year subscriptions without the telephone service are $300, and a two-issue trial is $50. Mr. Jenkins books and course: The Geometry Of Stock Market Profits ($50), Chart Reading For Professional Traders ($75), The Secret Science of the Stock Market ($135), Basic Day Trading Techniques ($125) as well as The Michael S. Jenkins Complete Stock Market Trading and Forecasting Course ($529 US $550 Foreign), and Secret Angle Method ($500) are available for purchase by check mailed to: Stock Cycles Forecast, P.O. Box 652, New York, N.Y. 10025-9998. PayPal is also accepted on the web (www.paypal.com) by 'sending money' to mjenkins@stockcyclesforecast.com. The information and statistics as
well as the original theoretical concepts utilized in this report are presented solely on the basis of the writers interpretation of such factors and may not reflect specific knowledge or fundamental analysis of any of the companies mentioned. Any opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. Neither the information nor any opinion-expressed herein constitutes a representation or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. From time to time the publisher, his associates or members of his family may have a position in the securities mentioned in this report.

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