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Introduction to Risk Analysis

Beth Weckman, Ph.D., P.Eng. Department of Mechanical Engineering University of Waterloo

Fire Protection Concepts

Human behaviour Egress analysis Risk analysis Fire modeling Uncertainty/sensitivity analysis Fire services and delivery

Risk
a measure of economic loss, human injury or environmental damage in terms of both the likelihood of the incident and the magnitude of the consequence loss, damage or injury

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Questions asked
For Risk and Hazard Assessment
How Safe is Safe Enough? Who Determines Level of Safety? Who is Liable? Where Does the Responsibility Start? Where Does the Responsibility End?

Addressed through safety design and risk analysis

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Safety Design Measures

Process Safety Technology
mechanical design installation maintenance inspection

Process Safety Management

daily routines continued training
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Risk Management/Assessment
Begins with
Assembling a analysis team Facility or Process Description

Brainstorm
Hazard Identification, Cataloguing

Analysis
Risk Analysis Risk Evaluation and implementation

Risk Control
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Assemble Risk Analysis Team

Expertise Hands on experience and insight Represent all parts of facility, operations
safety technology and engineering production design inspection installation maintenance
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Hazard Identification
Locate Dangers What can go wrong?
Identify hazards and weak points

What scenarios would result? What might be released, burn, etc? What toxins and damages could result? Who/what will be affected (receptors)?
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Risk Analysis
the development of qualitative and quantitative estimates of risk based on engineering evaluation and techniques consider estimates of
incident consequences incident frequencies (likelihood)

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Risk Analysis
Identify possible (fire) scenarios Rank according to likelihood Determine consequences
people, building systems, environment economic

Identify weak points in protection and safety systems

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Preliminary Analysis Methods

Safety Checklists Roundtable discussions Screening tools Many in-company tools

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Risk Analysis Methods

Checklists, historical data What If? HAZOP hazard and operability studies FMEA - failure modes and effects Fault and event tree Statistical Data Reliability Data

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Elements of Analysis
For each plausible scenario Estimate
likelihood (L) consequence (C)

Estimate
qualitatively quantitatively (QL-L) (QL-C) (QN-L) (QN-C)
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Likelihood Analysis
How likely are the targeted failures or deviations?
Which are most likely?

What reliability data is available? What history or experience might be used?

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Consequence Analysis
What are the possible effects? What are the consequences of each? What is damage level on each receptor? Will damage be acute, long term? What are the direct effects? What are the indirect effects?

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Impact and Receptor

Human Animal Vegetation Environment
On or off-site Air, water and/or soil

Economic/Liability Hagarsville Tire Fire

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Quantitative Analysis
decision based on actual data rather than perception and judgement of individuals with different stakes
risk team, public, legislators, etc

significant lack of data in some areas experts not acknowledge limitations uncertain acceptability limits
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Quantitative Likelihood Analysis Quantitative data used where and when available Historical records for industry or types of events often form basis Judgement used to estimate likelihood Data still augmented with in-house judgement and experience
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Benefits of QN-L Analysis

Based on statistics can prioritize relative probabilities of two alternatives develop long range - generic incidents even with limited data better than judgement alone

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Concerns in QN-L Analysis

Based on probability statistics Incident causes
multiple, poorly defined not necessarily directly the case at hand human factors element variable!

Probability data limited Credible but low probability events

could still happen tomorrow
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Quantitative Consequence Analysis Determine cause consequence quantify the consequences for each cause and incident as much as possible supplement lack of data and assumptions with judgement
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Benefits of QN-C Analysis

Use theory and physical phenomena more sources of reliable data
literature simple equations complex equations small-scale tests large-scale tests numerical/analytical models
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Concerns with QN-C Analysis

Models are simplifications of real event limitations in estimates
assumptions, boundary conditions not simulate real conditions solution methods include inherent limitations

Practitioners do not always clearly outline limits of analysis

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Acceptable Consequence
Each consequence is assessed
if acceptable from analysis risk is acceptable if not acceptable in analysis add preventative measures (L reduced) add more protective measures or reduce severity (C becomes acceptable)
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Acceptable Risk
NOT ZERO risk either
reduce likelihood to acceptable level
may not even consider event prevented

make consequence acceptable

Who determines acceptable?

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Acceptable Safety Design

Take ~ADEQUATE*~ preventative and protective measures to reduce risk to acceptable limits * Adequate according to generally accepted engineering operation and maintenance practices
mentors, peers, industry driven definitions
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Implementation and Promotion

Difficulties many qualitative practitioners
not acknowledge quantitative methods

many quantitative practitioners

reluctant to admit to limitations of analysis

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Concerns with Judgement

very dependent on
individual doing assessment company policy, level of acceptable risk government and level of regulation

Seat of the pants analysis

no need to quantify factors

without quantification - how do you judge?

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Implementation and Promotion

Strategies learn quantitative L and C methods
use simple/complex methods as required Recognize/dcoument limitations of each method

promote use of any assessment method emphasize alternative preventative and protective measures
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Any Questions?

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