Nuclear War 1/221

MICHIGAN 7WS 2013

Impact Defense Core H !!7"#s

$or%er secur&t' efforts at recor% (&)( S(erman */20 (Amy, President Obama has the most border patrol and border security deployed at the border of any previous president,
PolitiFact, June 2 th, 2 !", http#$$%%%&politifact&com$florida$statements$2 !"$'ul$ !$debbie(%asserman(schult)$more(border(security(and(patrols( under(obama(previ$*$$+,- .transcript of /+012 intervie% A fe% days before the 3&+& +enate too4 a vote in favor of an amendment to e5pand border patrol and other border security measures, 3&+& -ep& 6ebbie 7asserman +chult) defended President 1arac4 Obama8s record on border patrol and security& /+012 anchor 9homas -oberts as4ed 7asserman +chult) to respond to critics, includin: ;ouse -epublicans, %ho say the bill as amnesty or portray immi:rants as <ta4ers&< 7asserman +chult), %ho also serves as chair of the 6emocratic 0ational 2ommittee, portrayed Obama as tou:h on enforcement& < President Obama has the most border

patrols and border security deployed at the border of any previous president,< said 7asserman +chult), 6(Fla& in a June 2
intervie% on /+012& Obama <has crac4ed do%n employers (( on employers %ho are attractin: undocumented immi:rants and hirin: them more than any previous president&< PolitiFact has previously e5amined some similar claims about border patrol durin: Obama8s presidency& 1ut here %e %anted to fact(chec4 7asserman +chult)8s specific claims that Obama holds a record for border patrol and security& 1order patrol 9he 1order Patrol buildup be:an under President 1ill 2linton %ith Operation =ate4eeper and +afe:uards, but e5panded dramatically under President =eor:e 7& 1ush, said >atherine 1enton(2ohen, a =eor:eto%n history professor& 9he number of border patrol a:ents increased dramatically bet%een fiscal

years !??" and +ept& " , 2 !2& (+o did spendin:&* 0ation%ide, the pea4 year %as in 2

!! %ith 2!,@@@ a:ents (( the number dropped sli:htly to 2!,"?@ in fiscal year 2 !2& 6ou:las /assey, a professor at Princeton 3niversityAs Office of Population -esearch %ho has studied immi:ration issues, previously told PolitiFact that the total number of a:ents is a record :oin: bac4 to at least !?2@& 9he bi::est bump in 1order Patrol staffin: came under Obama8s predecessor, President =eor:e 7& 1ush& 1et%een 2 ! and 2 ?, the number of a:ents posted nationally rose from

about ?,B to a little more than 2 , & 1order fence Cn addition to border patrol, 7asserman +chult) also :ave credit to Obama for the most <border security deployed< (( a more :eneral term that %e too4 to include fences or other technolo:ical or
infrastructure improvements& 9he first fence alon: the south%estern border %as built in !?? but %as comparatively small# Prior to 2 D there %ere EB miles of pedestrian fencin: and DE miles of vehicle barriers, accordin: to a paper by the /i:ration Policy Cnstitute& 9he +ecure Fence Act of

F, passed by a -epublican(led 2on:ress and %as si:ned by 1ush& Ct authori)ed the construction of hundreds of miles of additional fencin: alon: the border %ith /e5ico and called for addin: unmanned aerial vehicles, satellites, radar and cameras& 9he fenced se:ments totaled rou:hly FD (E miles, %hile the entire 3&+&(/e5ican border is about 2, miles lon:& Obama, an Cllinois senator at the time, voted for the la%& 9he act specified <at least t%o layers of reinforced fencin:,< but in 2
E the la% %as altered to :ive the 1order Patrol lee%ay to decide the type of fencin:& 1y the time Obama became president in January 2 ?, much of the fence %as completed (( but not of the type ori:inally planned& Cn February 2 !!, a =AO report about the border presented a mi5ed picture of pro:ress& 9he report states that bet%een fiscal years 2 D and 2 ! , the number of border miles

that had fences increased from about !2 to F@?& A preliminary analysis of border miles under control sho%ed !D percent %ere
<controlled< %hile the rest %ere <mana:ed< and left vulnerabilities to ille:al activity&

$or%er safe as e+er ,(e -conom&st */22( (9he Gconomist, +ecure enou:h, June 22nd, 2 !", http#$$%%%&economist&com$ne%s$united(
states$2!DE?B2B(spendin:(billions(more(fences(and(drones(%ill(do(more(harm(:ood(secure(enou:h*$$+,-

9o bolster its ar:ument that the border is secure, 1arac4 Obama8s administration points to the drop in apprehensions at or near it (see map*& 9hese bottomed out in 2 !!, and as the once(porous 9ucson sector has ti:htened there are si:ns that the action may be movin: east, to 9e5as& Apprehension numbers are a poor pro5y for border security, but fe% dispute that, compared %ith the free(for(all of the late !?? s and early 2 s, today8s border is calm (see charts*& 7hy mi:ht this beH Gconomics probably matters more than enforcement& America8s do%nturn cost many ille:al mi:rants their 'obs, 'ust as opportunities %ere blossomin: bac4 home in /e5ico & Cn the past t%o years /e5ico8s economy has :ro%n at a healthy "&?I annually, creatin: 'obs ( albeit at much lo%er pay than in America*& Cn the lon:er term, demo:raphy is also li4ely to slo% the flo% of mi:ra nts& 9he number of !D(2@(year(olds in /e5ico and Gl +alvador %ill start declinin: bet%een 2 !D and 2 2 & +ince ille:al crossers tend to be youn: men, this %ill surely ease the pressure on the border& And over the ne5t @ years fertility rates in both countries are forecast to drop belo% America8s& 7alls and drones do ma4e a difference& =ordon ;anson, an economist at the 3niversity of 2alifornia, +an 6ie:o, credits ti:hter security for one(third of the drop in mi:ration bet%een the late !?? s and 2 ! & +pendin: yet more money could reduce crossin:s further, he saysJalthou:h he believes that America is already inflictin: economic self(harm by spendin: so much to 4eep %or4ers out& $or%er +&olence on %ecl&ne .lson an% /ee 12(Olson( serves as Associate 6irector of the /e5ico Cnstitute at the 7oodro% 7ilson Cnternational

2enter for +cholars in 7ashin:ton, 62& And Kee( Associate 6irector at the 0orth American 2enter for 9ransborder +tudies (0A29+* at Ari)ona +tate 3niversity (Gric and Gric, 9he +tate of +ecurity in the 3&+&(/e5ico 1order -e:ion, 7oodro% 7ilson Cnternational 2enter and Gl 2ole:io de la Frontera, Au:ust 2 !2, http#$$%%%&%ilsoncenter&or:$sites$default$files$+tateLofL1orderL+ecurityLOlsonLKee&pdf*$$+,-

!! Other e5perts and analysts have ar:ued that there is insufficient data to dra% conclusions about spillover violence& 9he Justice 6epartment8s 0ational 6ru: Cntelli:ence 2enter stated in a 2 !! report that, 06C2 is unable to confidently assess the trends in overall dru:(related crime in the 3&+& +outh%est 1order re:ion&!2 Ct found that Csolated instances of crimes such as 4idnappin:s and home invasions robberies directed a:ainst 000$or%er Secur&t'000

Nuclear War MICHIGAN 7WS 2013 2/221 those involved in dru: traffic4in: are reported in 3&+& border communities& ;o%ever, the available data are insufficient to support trend analysis particularly an analysis of %hether such crime is increasin:&!" +till others, includin: the 7oodro% 7ilson 2enter8s /e5ico Cnstitute, have used Federal 1ureau of Cnvesti:ation crime data to sho% that overall crime alon: the3nited +tates side of the international boundary is lo%er than the national and state%ide avera:es and that the border re:ion has not e5perienced an increase in violent crime durin: the last five years& !@ +ee Fi:ure ! belo%, %hich sho%s the relatively lo% level of violence in the ma'or 3&+& border cities& 06C2 supports this vie% %hen it statesin its 2 !! reportthat, Federal 1ureau of Cnvesti:ation (F1C* data sho% that overall violence crime rates in the +outh%estern states trended do%n%ard bet%een 2 E and mid(2 ! , %hile overall property crime rates :enerally remained stable& No terror&st t(reat from Me1&can $or%er .lson an% /ee 12(Olson( serves as Associate 6irector of the /e5ico Cnstitute at the 7oodro% 7ilson Cnternational
6urin: the months and years follo%in:

2enter for +cholars in 7ashin:ton, 62& And Kee( Associate 6irector at the 0orth American 2enter for 9ransborder +tudies (0A29+* at Ari)ona +tate 3niversity (Gric and Gric, 9he +tate of +ecurity in the 3&+&(/e5ico 1order -e:ion, 7oodro% 7ilson Cnternational 2enter and Gl 2ole:io de la Frontera, Au:ust 2 !2, http#$$%%%&%ilsoncenter&or:$sites$default$files$+tateLofL1orderL+ecurityLOlsonLKee&pdf*$$+,-

the ?$!! terrorist attac4s, the nation8s lon: and relatively porous

and undefended borders, particularly

the 3&+&(/e5ico border, %ere dra%n deeply into the national conversation about national securit y& 1order security became part of the overall analysis and rethin4in: of 3&+& national security vulnerabilities, %hich included transportation net%or4s and other critical infrastructure security& Cronically, the ?$!! terrorists did not enter the 3nited +tates over the northern or southern

border but entered le:ally on student or immi:rant visas& @ 0evertheless, fear that 3&+& borders could be vulnerable to terrorist incursions led to a number of important policy decisions & +i:nificant fortification of the border %ith additional staff, eMuipment, and infrastructure to ma4e access more difficult became the principal %ay policy(ma4ers sou:ht to address perceived border vulnerabilities& Alon: the %ay, these concerns %ere conflated %ith a :ro%in: call for restrictive immi:ration policy, and the so(called sealin: of the border to 4eep out undocumented mi:rants, criminals and to halt e5plodin: violence in /e5ico from crossin: into the 3nited +tates& 6espite these concerns, no si:nificant terrorist threat to the 3nited +tates has materiali)ed in /e5ico nor penetrated the 3&+&(/e5ico border since 2 !& 9he +tate 6epartment8s annual country reports on terrorism provide clear lan:ua:e to this effect& 9here %as no evidence of ties bet%een /e5ican criminal or:ani)ations and terrorist :roups, nor that the criminal or:ani)ations had aims of political or territorial control, aside from see4in: to protect and e5pand the impunity %ith %hich they conduct their criminal activityN9here %as no indication that terrorist or:ani)ations used /e5ico as a conduit for illicit activities& J3&+& 6epartment of +tate 2ountry -eport s on 9errorism 2 !

various public announcements (testimony, speeches, and the li4e* on the part of federal :overnment officials in various a:encies state a common theme#

Me1&co &s not a pr&or&t' &n t(e "ar on terror Cana%a &s far more %an)erous Hota#a&nen 20112, 0ational 2orrespondent for /c2latchy 0e%spapers (-o, 1i::est border threat to 3&+&H 2anada, not /e5ico, report says, February !, http#$$%%%&mcclatchydc&com$2 !!$ 2$ !$! EB?!$bi::est( border(threat(to(us(canada&htmlO&3en:iP2!;fs*$$+,At a ne%s conference on 2apitol ;ill, Kieberman said the northern border, %hich e5tends from 7ashin:ton state to /aine, is providin: <easy passa:e into America by e5tremists, terrorists and criminals %hose purpose clearly is to harm the American people&< 9he report said the northern border, a Muarter of %hich ad'oins federal or tribal lands, poses a hi:her ris4 to public safety no% than the 3&+&(/e5ico border& Kieberman said the northern border is nearly t%ice as lon: and is lined %ith lar:e population centers that ma4e it harder to detect criminal activity& Cn addition, he said, 2anada no% has more Cslamist e5tremist :roups than /e5ico does& <Ct is not too much to as4 that our :overnment be able to at least detect all ille:al entries alon: the border, so %e can :et this information into the hands of la% enforcement a:encies that can then ma4e the arrests,< Kieberman said& Alt cause2 Cana%a &s real po&nt of "ea#ness $lument(al 20072, -e:ional 2orrespondent for /c2latchy 0e%spapers (Kes, 3&+& border %ith 2anada vulnerable to terrorists, +eptember 2E, http#$$%%%&mcclatchydc&com$2 E$ ?$2E$2 @F$us(border(%ith( canada(vulnerable&htmlO&3en' o2!;fs*$$+,-

Nuclear War MICHIGAN 7WS 2013 3/221 7A+;C0=9O0 J 9errorists carryin: radioactive materials could easily enter the 3nited +tates from 2anada undetected, :overnment investi:ators said 9hursday after they %ere able to cross the D, (mile border four times carryin: a lar:e, red duffel ba:
%ithout bein: intercepted& 9he crossin:s too4 place at un:uarded and unmonitored sites in four northern(border states& 9he =overnment Accountability Office, 2on:ressA investi:ative arm, did not disclose the sites& <Our %or4 sho%s that a determined cross(border violator %ould

li4ely be able to brin: radioactive materials or other contraband undetected into the 3nited +tates by crossin: the 3&+&(2anada border at any of the locations %e investi:ated ,< the report said& Gven thou:h the northern border is more than t%ice as lon: as the 3&+&(/e5ico border, it has less than one(tenth as many a:ents patrollin: it&
Ka%ma4ers from northern states blamed the 7hite ;ouse and the 6epartment of ;omeland +ecurity for the la5 security on the 3&+&(2anada border& <9his report is 'ust as unacceptable as it is shoc4in:,< said +en& Patty /urray, 6(7ash&, %ho alon: %ith others have sou:ht to secure more 1order Patrol a:ents and hi:h(tech surveillance and communications eMuipment for the northern border& < 7e simply cannot accept this level of

vulnerability&< 9he report said investi:ators found state roads close to the northern border that did not appear to be :uarded or monitored& Cn three
cases, investi:ators %ere able to cross from 2anada into the 3nited +tates undetected& Cn the fourth case, 1order Patrol a:ents %ere alerted, but the investi:ators %ere able to disappear into the 3nited +tates before the a:ents arrived& Cn addition, the report said it found several ports of entry that %ere staffed durin: the day but not at ni:ht& 9hou:h 3&+& 2ustoms and 1order Protection (21P* said such sites %ere eMuipped

%ith surveillance eMuipment, =AO investi:ators spent !2 minutes at one of them ta4in: pictures& 1order Patrol a:ents never arrived& 9he =AO investi:ators %ere later stopped three miles from the site but %ere only briefly Muestioned, and their vehicle %as
not searched& <21P records indicate it does successfully stop many individuals from crossin: the border ille:ally, but our o%n observations and e5periences (alon: %ith 21PAs ac4no%led:ement of e5istin: challen:es* lead us to conclude that more human resources and technolo:ical capabilities are needed to effectively protect the northern border,< the report said&

Me1&co &s not a terror&st t(reat ,error&sts use ot(er routes or are alrea%' (ere McCom3s an% Steller 2011 (1rady, and 9im, 1order seen as unli4ely terrorist crossin: point, June E, http#$$a)starnet&com$ne%s$local$border$border(seen(as(unli4ely(terrorist(crossin:(point$articleLed?"2aa2( ?d2a(D@f!(b?" (BDfDd@cce?aB&html*$$+,A turnin: political tide has rene%ed fears that ra:ed after the +ept& !!, 2 !, terrorist attac4s ( that terrorists %ill snea4 into the country across the 3&+&(/e5ico border& 0obody disputes thatAs possible, but analysts and :overnment officials say terrorists plottin: to 4ill Americans are more li4ely to use other routes into the country, if theyAre not here already& CtAs much more common for people convicted in the 3&+& of crimes connected to international terrorism to have been 3&+& citi)ens or le:al residents, or come into the country on visas& <9here is no serious evidence that the 3&+&(/e5ico border is a si:nificant threat from terrorism ,< said Gd%ard Alden, a senior fello% at the 2ouncil on Forei:n -elations, a nonpartisan thin4 tan4 based in 0e% Por4& 2laims of terrorist threats on the +outh%est border distract le:islators and policyma4ers from addressin: lon:(term solutions to dru: smu::lin: and ille:al immi:ration, said 9om 1arry, senior analyst at the 2enter for Cnternational Policy in 7ashin:ton& < CtAs politically motivated,< 1arry said, <playin: on that sense of fear that certain people are susceptible to &< No %&sease can #&ll us all structural l&m&tat&ons Gla%"ell 45 0e% Por4 bureau chief of the 7ashin:ton Post (9he Pla:ue Pear, E$!E$?D, 9he 0e% -epublic,
http#$$cu%hist&files&%ordpress&com$2 !!$ @$the(pla:ue(year(boo4(revie%(of(hot()one&pdf*$$7K 7hat %ould a real Andromeda +train loo4 li4eH Ct %ould be hi:hly infectious li4e the flu, spread throu:h casual contact& 1ut it %ould also have to be structured in such a %ay as to avoid the 4ind of selection bias that usually e5ists a:ainst virulent strains& For that reason, it %ould need to move stealthily throu:h its host, infectin: so silently that the victim %ould not 4no% to ta4e precautions, and so slo%ly that the victim %ould have years in %hich pass on the infection to someone else& 9he Andromeda +train, in short, the virus that really could 4ill B or ?

percent of humanity, %ould be an airborne version of ;CQ& Cn fact, doomsday types have for years been con'urin: up this possibility for the end of man4ind& 9he problem, ho%ever, is that it is very difficult to ima:ine ho% such a super(virus could ever come about& For a start, it is not clear ho% ;CQ could become airborne and still be lethal &
(9his %as the ar:ument of ;o%ard 9emin, the late 0obel Pri)e(%innin: virolo:ist&* 7hat ma4es ;CQ so dan:erous is that it see4s out and selectively 4ills the 4ey blood cells of the human immune system& 9o be airborne, it %ould have to shift its preference to the cells of the respiratory system& (Gbola, %hich is not nearly so selective, probably doesnAt need to chan:e personality to become airborne&* ;o%, then, could it still cause aidsH 7hy %ouldnAt it be 'ust another cold virusH 9hen there is the problem of mutation & 9o become airborne, ;CQ %ould have to evolve in such a %ay as to become more durable& -i:ht

no% the virus is hi:hly sensitive to chan:es in temperature and li:ht& 1ut it is hardly :oin: to do any dama:e if it dies the moment it is cou:hed into the air and e5posed to ultraviolet rays & ;CQ %ould have to :et as
tou:h as a cold virus, %hich can live for days on a countertop or a door4nob& At the same time ;CQ %ould have to :et more fle5ible& -i:ht no% ;CQ mutates in only a limited manner& 9he virus essentially 4eeps chan:in: its clothes, but its inner %or4in:s stay the same& Ct 4ills everyone by infectin: the same 4ey blood cells& 9o become airborne, it %ould have to under:o a truly fundamental transformation, s%itchin: to

an entirely different class of cells& ;o% can ;CQ ma4e t%o contradictory chan:es at the same time, becomin: 000D&sease000

Nuclear War MICHIGAN 7WS 2013 6/221 both less and more fle5ibleH 9his is %hat is %ron: %ith the Andromeda +train ar:ument & Gvery infectious a:ent that has ever pla:ued humanity has had to adopt a specific strate:y, but every strate:y carries a correspondin: cost, and this ma4es human counterattac4 possible & /alaria is vicious and deadly, but it relies on mosMuitoes to spread from one
human to the ne5t, %hich means that drainin: s%amps and puttin: up mosMuito nettin: can all but halt endemic malaria& +mallpo5 is e5traordinarily durable, remainin: infectious in the environment for years, but its very durability, its essential ri:idity, is %hat ma4es it one of the easiest microbes to create a vaccine a:ainst& aids is almost invariably lethal because its attac4s the body at its point of :reat vulnerability, that is, the immune system, but the fact that it tar:ets blood cells is %hat ma4es it so relatively uninfectious& C could :o on, but the point is obvious& Any microbe capable of

%ipin: us all out %ould have to be everythin: at once# as conta:ious as flu, as durable as the cold, as lethal as Gbola, as stealthy as ;CQ and so do::edly resistant to mutation that it %ould stay deadly over the course of a lon: epidemic& 1ut viruses are not, %ell, superhuman& 9hey cannot do everythin: at once& Ct is one of the ironies of the analysis of alarmists such as Preston that they are all too %illin: to point out the limitations of human bein:s, but they ne:lect to point out the limitations of microscopic life forms& No &mpact to %&sease t(e' e&t(er 3urn out or %on7t sprea% !osner 05 Senior Lecturer at University of Chicago (Richard A, Catastrophe: the dozen most significant catastrophic ris
do a"out them#$, %inter, http:&&findartic'es#com&p&artic'es&mi( ms e&is()(**&ai(n+,*-./*0&pg(+1tag2content3co'*4&&%L Pet the fact that ;omo sapiens has mana:ed to survive every disease to assail it in

s and !hat !e can

the 2 , years or so of its e5istence is a source of :enuine comfort, at least if the focus is on e5tinction events& 9here have been enormously destructive pla:ues, such as the 1lac4 6eath, smallpo5, and no% AC6+, but none has come close to destroyin: the entire human race& 9here is a biolo:ical reason& 0atural selection favors :erms of limited lethalityR they are fitter in an evolutionary sense because their :enes are more li4ely to be spread if the :erms do not 4ill their hosts too Muic4ly& 9he AC6+ virus is an e5ample of a lethal virus, %holly natural, that by lyin: dormant yet infectious in its host for years ma5imi)es its spread& Pet there is no dan:er that AC6+ %ill destroy the entire human race& 9he li4elihood of a natural pandemic that %ould cause the e5tinction of the human race is probably even less today than in the past (e5cept in prehistoric times, %hen people lived in small, scattered bands, %hich %ould have limited the spread of disease*, despite %ider human contacts that ma4e it more difficult to locali)e an infectious disease& 9he reason is improvements in medical science& 1ut
the comfort is a small one& Pandemics can still impose enormous losses and resist prevention and cure# the lesson of the AC6+ pandemic& And there is al%ays a lust time&

D&seases 3urn out pre+ents sprea% Morse 6 ( Professor of 2linical Gpidemiolo:y and virolo:ist at 2olumbia 3niversity (+tephen +, Gmer:in: and
the human population and, li4e Gbola, burn themselves out

-eemer:in: Cnfectious 6iseases# A =lobal Problem, /ay 2 @, http#$$%%%&actionbioscience&or:$ne%frontiers$morse&html*$$7K A pandemic is a very bi: epidemic& Ct reMuires a number of thin:s& 9here are many infections that :et introduced from time to time in

because they 4ill too Muic4ly or they don8t have a %ay to :et from person to person& 9hey are a terrible tra:edy, but also, in a sense, it is a luc4y thin: that they don8t have an efficient means of transmission& Cn some cases, %e may inadvertently create path%ays to allo% transmission of infections that may be poorly
transmissible, for e5ample, spreadin: ;CQ throu:h needle sharin:, the blood supply, and, of course, initially throu:h the commercial se5 trade& 9he disease is not easily transmitted, but %e provided, %ithout reali)in: it, means for it to spread& Ct is no% pandemic in spite of its relatively inefficient transmission& 7e also :et complacent and do not ta4e steps to prevent its spread& A disease li4e influen)a is a different story& Ct spreads very efficiently from person to person& 9he ri:ht strain of influen)a %ith the ri:ht combination of biolo:ical properties to spread %ell and be novel to the human population and also perhaps to come at the ri:ht time in the ri:ht place could ma4e it easily pandemic& +o, there are many %ays to become a pandemic& Kuc4ily, it8s not an easy thin: to do&

C(an)es to 8uarant&ne rules "&ll pre+ent e1t&nct&on Altman 5 -eporter at the 0e% Por4 9imes (2&6&2& Proposes 0e% -ules in Gffort to Prevent 6isease Outbrea4, !!$2F$!",
http#$$Muery&nytimes&com$:st$fullpa:e&htmlHsecShealthTresS?B 2GE6F!F"!F?" A!DED22!A?F"?2B1F"*$$7K

Federal officials yesterday proposed the first si:nificant chan:es in Muarantine rules in 2D years in an effort to broaden the definition of reportable illnesses, to centrali)e their reportin: to the federal :overnment and to reMuire the airline and shippin: industries to 4eep
comment on the proposals, %hich are to be published in the Federal -e:ister on 0ov& " , they told reporters in a telephone ne%s conference&

passen:er manifests electronically for F days& 9he proposals %ould also clarify the appeals process for people sub'ected to Muarantines to allo% for administrative due process and :ive health officials e5plicit authority to offer vaccination, dru:s and other appropriate means of prevention on a voluntary basis to those in Muarantine& 9he proposals could cost the belea:uered airline industry hundreds of millions of dollars, officials of the 2enters for 6isease 2ontrol and Prevention said& 9he officials are invitin: public

9he proposals are part of a broader 1ush administration plan to improve the response to current and potential communicable disease threats that may arise any%here in the %orld& Cf adopted, the ne% re:ulations AA%ill allo% the 2&6&2& to move more s%iftlyAA %hen it needs to control outbrea4s, said 6r& /artin 2etron, %ho directs the a:encyAs division of :lobal mi:ration and Muarantine& 9he
outbrea4 of severe acute respiratory syndrome (+A-+* in 2 " underscored ho% fast a disease could spread throu:h the %orld and the need to moderni)e and stren:then Muarantine measures by pointin: out :aps in health %or4ersA ability to respond Muic4ly and effectively, 6r& 2etron said& As the 2&6&2& 'oined %ith cooperative airlines to meet fli:hts and later collect information about passen:ers %ho had contact %ith others %ho developed +A-+, the epidemiolo:ists had to compile and process by hand data collected from fli:ht manifests, customs declarations and other sources& 1ut manifests contained only the name and seat numberR customs declarations %ere ille:ible, and

Nuclear War 5/221

MICHIGAN 7WS 2013

%hen readable, the names did not match those on the manifests& AA9he time reMuired to trac4 passen:ers %as routinely lon:er than the incubation period,AA %hich %as t%o to ! days for +A-+, 6r& 2etron said& AA9hat %as really Muite shoc4in:,AA 6r& 2etron said& One

proposed chan:e %ould reMuire airline and ship manifests to be 4ept electronically for F days and made available to the 2&6&2& %ithin !2 hours %hen ill passen:ers arrive on international and domestic fli:hts& 9he proposed chan:es include provisions for maintainin: confidentiality and privacy of health information& 9he outbrea4 of +A-+ %as stopped in part because of Muarantines imposed in some affected countries& ,uarantine restricts the movement of a healthy person e5posed to someone %ho has a communicable disease& 9he Muarantine period is determined by the usual len:th of time that passes from e5posure to an infectious a:ent to the onset of illness& An e5ecutive order of the president limits Muarantine to nine diseases# cholera, diphtheria,
infectious tuberculosis, pla:ue, smallpo5, yello% fever, viral hemorrha:ic fevers li4e Gbola, +A-+ and influen)a caused by ne% strains that could cause a pandemic&

Another proposed chan:e %ould e5pand the definition of illnesses to include respiratory ailments li4e influen)a& An ill person %ould be defined as havin: a temperature of ! &@ de:rees or :reater, accompanied by one or more of the follo%in:# rash, s%ollen lymph nodes,

headache %ith nec4 stiffness (a si:n of possible menin:itis*, and chan:es in level of consciousness or co:nitive function& Also, the definition of illness %ould include diarrhea , a fever that has persisted more than @B hours, severe bleedin:, 'aundice, severe persistent cou:h, or respiratory distress& 2aptains of airplanes and ships are no% reMuired to notify local health officials about an ill passen:er or cre% at the ne5t port of call and ta4e such measures as local officials direct&

,ra+el restr&ct&ons "&ll pre+ent "orl%"&%e e1t&nct&on Cam&t9 an% /ol:eros * ( ./artin# +%edish Cnstitute for Cnfectious 6isease 2ontrol, ..Fredri4# +%edish 6isease -esearcher (9he effect of travel restrictions on the spread of a moderately conta:ious disease, !2$!@$F, 0C;,
http#$$%%%&ncbi&nlm&nih&:ov$pmc$articles$P/2!EF@ 2F$*$$7K 6iscussion Our results sho% clearly that travelin: restrictions

%ould have a si:nificant beneficial effect, reducin: both the

:eo:raphical spread and the total and local incidence& 9his holds true for all three levels of intercommunity infectiousness, U, simulated, U is influenced by many factors, most notably by total travel intensity, but also by the medium of travel, the behavior of the traveler, the model of dispersal by travel and the infectiousness of the disease& ;ufna:el et al calibrated U usin: data from the actual outbrea4& As mentioned, no attempt %as made on our part to find the <true< value of U in the ne% settin:s, as no such outbrea4 data are available for +%eden& 9his %ould be considered a fla% for a Muantitative study on a +A-+ outbrea4 in +%eden& 1y simulatin: for different values of the parameter, ho%ever, %e can be confident in the Mualitative conclusion, namely, that the same :eneral behavior can be e5pected in the unrestricted scenario and in response to the control measures, re:ardless of U& 9he same reasonin: supports :enerali)ation of the results to other countries or re:ions& 9he survey travel data :ive a fairly accurate picture of travel patterns in +%eden and mirror many %estern countries& +ome countries, e&:& the 3+A, are more dependent on motor vehicles for commuter

traffic, and infectiousness %ould therefore be anticipated to be lo%er & +uch effects are, a:ain, included in calibration of U& >eep
in mind that the used value of U %as ta4en from a model includin: only :lobal air traffic& Fi:ure Fi:ure22 sho%s that travel restrictions have a positive effect for U in the proposed ran:e& Cn li:ht of the fact that intermunicipal travel heavily influences incidence even at a local level, %e may 'ustifiably be concerned about boundary conditions& 7e treated +%eden as an isolated country, but Muite obviously, the incidence %ill be underestimated for areas %ith freMuent traffic across the borders& 9his includes in particular the Vresund re:ion around /almW, and to a lesser e5tent, international airports and the small to%ns borderin: 0or%ay and Finland& 7e %ould li4e to point out that, as in most epidemiolo:ic simulations, individuals are not e5plicitly represented in the model& 9his is also true for individuals %ho are travelin:& Cn reality, people %ho travel run an increased ris4 of contractin: the disease& 9his is correctly modeled, as individuals %ho are travelin: are included in the travel influ5 into the municipalities& 9he influ5 in turn affects the probability of additional infections at any :iven time& Of course, it is hi:hly probable that this %ould be the travelers themselves, as, almost %ithout e5ception, they return to the ori:in of their 'ourney& Gven thou:h there is presently no treatment or vaccine for +A-+, results

sho% that limited Muarantine as su::ested here drastically decreases the ris4 of transmission, and this may %ell turn out to be the most e5pedient form of intervention & Cn many countries, +%eden included, limitin: freedom of travel is
unconstitutional and must ta4e the form of :eneral recommendations& Additionally, certain professions of crucial importance to society durin: a crisis situation must be e5empt from travel restrictions& 9he study sho%s that even if a substantial fraction of the population

brea4s the restrictions, this strate:y is still viable& For other types of disease for %hich preventive treatment (pandemic flu* or vaccine
(smallpo5* are available, our results sho% that lon:(distance travelers are an important :roup for tar:eted control measures& Ct is %orth notin: on the travel intensity matri5, %here the elements directly reflect the underlyin: survey data, that there are several proposed alternatives, usin: smoothin: techniMues or data(:eneratin: simulation& 2ompletin: the matri5 in such a %ay %ould correctly introduce many connections that are missin: from our data, but a substantial number %ould be falsely represented, and could endan:er the validity of the model due to unforeseen stochastic mechanisms& 9he methods all have inherent imprecisions and fla%s, %hich unfortunately in this conte5t %ould be difficult to estimate& 9he choice of one in preference over another %ould certainly be contended& Our scheme of direct e5trapolation from the ra% data is certainly no better but does have the benefit of transparency and reasonable control over errors& As is e5plained in further detail in the appendi5, this means that certain connections bet%een municipalities that are used in reality, ho%ever infreMuently, are missin:, %hile on the other hand some %ill be heavily overestimated& 9his is especially true for certain unusual municipalities& 9he routes bet%een the more populated communities and other heavy connections are much better estimated, as crude statistical analysis %ill indicate& Also close to the true value is the travel intensity as a %hole, as %ell as the summed influ5 and outflu5 of any municipality& 2onclusion Our methods sho% that restrictin: travel bet%een municipalities in such a %ay that travel

above a certain distance is banned, %ould indeed have a beneficial effect on the speed of transmission of a hi:hly conta:ious disease, :eo:raphically and in absolute numbers& 9his conclusion is true for a ran:e of plausible values of the intermunicipal infectiousness& Gven in scenarios of compliance as lo% as E I, travel restrictions are effective& 9hus, the effectiveness of travel restrictions as a means of miti:atin: a future epidemic is supported& 9he model and results are robust and there is no reason to believe that the results are not :enerally applicable to any country or re:ion& No e1t&nct&on )o+ernments an% (ealt( care s'stems prepare%

Nuclear War MICHIGAN 7WS 2013 */221 ;a#ar&a 4 ( Gditor of 0e%s%ee4, 1A from Pale, Ph6 in pol sci, ;arvard (Fareed, 9he +4y Csn8t Fallin:, D$!F$?, 0e%s%ee4, http#$$%%%&ne%s%ee4&com$id$!?E?22*$$7K
Ct certainly loo4s li4e another e5ample of cryin: %olf& After bracin: ourselves for a :lobal pandemic, %eAve suffered somethin: more li4e the usual seasonal influen)a& 9hree %ee4s a:o the 7orld ;ealth Or:ani)ation declared a health emer:ency, %arnin: countries to <prepare for a pandemic< and said that the only Muestion %as the e5tent of %orld%ide dama:e& +enior officials prophesied that millions could be infected by the disease& 1ut as of last %ee4, the 7;O had confirmed only @,B cases of s%ine flu, %ith F! people havin: died of it& Obviously, these lo% numbers are a pleasant surprise, but it does ma4e one %onder, %hat did %e :et %ron:H 7hy did the predictions of a pandemic turn out to be so e5a::eratedH +ome people blame an overheated media, but it %ould have been difficult to i:nore ma'or international health or:ani)ations and :overnments %hen they %ere %arnin: of catastrophe& C thin4 there is a broader mista4e in the %ay %e loo4 at the %orld & Once %e see a problem, %e can describe it in :reat detail, e5trapolatin: all its possible conseMuences& 1ut %e

can rarely anticipate the human response to that crisis& 9a4e s%ine flu& 9he virus had crucial characteristics that led researchers to %orry that it could spread far and fast & 9hey describedJand the media reportedJ%hat %ould happen if it %ent unchec4ed& 1ut it did not :o unchec4ed& Cn fact, s%ine flu %as met by an e5tremely vi:orous response at its epicenter, /e5ico& 9he /e5ican :overnment reacted Muic4ly and massively, Muarantinin: the infected population, testin: others, providin: medication to those %ho needed it& 9he noted e5pert on this sub'ect, Kaurie =arrett, says, <7e should all stand up and scream, A=racias, /e5icoXA because the /e5ican people
and the /e5ican :overnment have sacrificed on a level that CAm not sure as Americans %e %ould be prepared to do in the e5act same circumstances& 9hey shut do%n their schools& 9hey shut do%n businesses, restaurants, churches, sportin: events& 9hey basically paraly)ed their o%n economy& 9heyAve suffered billions of dollars in financial losses still bein: tallied up, and thereby really brou:ht transmission to a halt&< Gvery time one of these viruses is detected, %riters and officials brin: up the +panish influen)a epidemic

of !?!B in %hich millions of people died& Cndeed, durin: the last pandemic scare, in 2 D, President =eor:e 7& 1ush claimed that he had been readin: a history of the +panish flu to help him understand ho% to respond& 1ut the %orld %e live in today loo4s nothin: li4e !?!B& Public health(care systems are far better and more %idespread than anythin: that e5isted durin: the First 7orld 7ar& Gven /e5ico, a developin: country, has a first(rate public(health systemJfar better than anythin: 1ritain or France had in the early 2 th century& <&ruses %o not cause e1t&nct&on &nstea% accommo%ate to t(e (ost to #eep &t al&+e Was(&n)ton !ost 47 (1attlin: an Outbrea4 Of ;ype, !$!?$?E, http#$$%%%&%ashin:tonpost&com$%p(

srv$style$lon:term$boo4s$revie%s$virus5&htm*$$7K Kittle %onder, then, that -yan really be:ins to coo4 as he dra%s s%eepin: scientific conclusions to%ard the end of the boo4& ;e %rites that < viruses,

so often thou:ht to be nothin: more than parasites, play a much %ider role< in natureAs :rand plan & ;e ta4es on the ve5in: issue of %hy viruses that coe5ist in relative harmony %ith their natural hosts emer:e to attac4 humans %ith such lethal force& 1ecause a bu: that %ipes out its tar:et population %ill become e5tinct itself, itAs sound evolutionary strate:y to reach an accommodation instead, and to <co(evolve< %ith the host over time& 3ltimately, the bu:s arenAt out to 4ill us, -yan e5plains# 9hey 'ust %ant to move in, li4e microscopic >ato >aelins& 0e% hosts for the virus havenAt had time to reach this accommodation, and so the initial encounters tend to be tra:ic& Pet once adapted, the viral :uests arenAt mere freeloaders# -yan su::ests that they become part of the hostAs armamentarium a:ainst turf invaders& 1ecause %e are the invaders of so many remote corners of the Garth, %e run into these <un%ittin: 4ni:hts of nature& & & & Althou:h not

primarily desi:ned to attac4 humanity, human e5ploitation and invasion of every ecolo:ical sphere has directed that a::ression our %ay&< -yan ends %ith a call for better monitorin: of and response to emer:in: diseases (( and, 'ust to ma4e sure %e :et the messa:e, con'ures up a hypothetical <virus Y,< a true doomsday bu: as lethal as Gbola Zaire but %ith the airborne transmission abilities of measles& 1rrrrrrrrrrr& -e:is, on the other hand, steadfastly refuses to fret, and ta4es on the increasin:ly popular apocalyptic notion that emer:in: diseases are someho% <=aiaAs reven:e< on humanity for overdevelopment& ;e scorns PrestonAs idea that <in a sense, the earth is mountin: an immune response a:ainst the human species< and =arrettAs notion that <the microbes %ere %innin:&< /any more Americans have been 4illed by li:htnin: than the E Gbola deaths

%orld%ide, yet <nobody spo4e of li:htnin: as Athe reven:e of the thunderclouds,A even thou:h there %as abundant tal4 of Gbola as Athe reven:e of the rain forestA,< -e:is sneers& 9his proliferation of ne% viral threats is an <illusion,< -e:is says& 7hatAs ne% are the tools of detection& <9he better the 262 :ot at identifyin: the patho:ens that caused a:e(old but hitherto unreco:ni)ed diseases, the more it loo4ed as if scads of trailbla)in: ne% microbes %ere out there amassin: themselves for attac4, :atherin: their forces, and preparin: to brin: us Athe comin: pla:ueA&<

Dru) e1ports on %ecl&ne $$C E( (112 0e%s, 3+ claims success in %ar on dru:s, October "rd, 2 E,
http#$$ne%s&bbc&co&u4$2$hi$americas$E 2D" B&stm*$$+,John 7alters, head of the Office of 0ational 6ru: 2ontrol Policy, said cocaine shorta:es had led to a 'ump in prices in "E American cities&

Gfforts on

both sides of the /e5ican border have disrupted the flo% of all dru:s into the 3+ , /r 7alters said& 1ut he said it had not
yet been proven if the results could be sustained over the lon: term& /e5ican traffic4ers e5tradited /r 7alters %as spea4in: as the 3+ and /e5ico %or4 out the details of an aid plan ( e5pected to total [!bn ( for /e5ico to help combat dru: cartels& About ? I of the cocaine enterin: the 3+

000Dru) Cartels000

Nuclear War MICHIGAN 7WS 2013 7/221 comes throu:h /e5ico& <7hatAs happened for the first time in t%o decades is %e no% see %idespread reports of cocaine shorta:es in the 3nited +tates,< /r 7alters said& 9hirty(seven cities had reported <the lac4 of the ability to receive %holesale amounts, 4ilo amounts, of cocaine in the Muantities previously supplied at prices previously char:ed<, he said& As a result of the drop in supply, the price of cocaine had increased by 2@I and nearly doubled in some cities& 9he dru:s tsar credited /e5ican President Felipe 2alderon for some of the success& ;e said 3+ investi:ators had been %or4in: closely %ith /e5ican authorities in their fi:ht a:ainst the dru: cartels& +ince /r 2alderon too4 office in 6ecember he has sent 2D, soldiers and police to /e5ican provinces pla:ued by dru: violence and it seems to be %or4in: , says the 112As 6uncan >ennedy in /e5ico 2ity& +everal hi:h(profile /e5ican traffic4ers have been e5tradited to the 3+ in recent months& /r 7alters also said that fe%er American %or4ers %ere sho%in: positive on dru: tests and that there %ere fe%er cocaine( related hospital admissions& S= sol+es &mpact2 >S m&l&tar&9&n) %ru) "ar Men%o9a 132 Pulit)er pri)e %innin: AP national %riter (/artha, 3+ military e5pands its dru: %ar in Katin America, Associated
Press, February "rd, 2 !", http#$$ne%s&yahoo&com$us(military(e5pands(dru:(%ar(latin(america(!@D2 2EF"&html*$$+,Cn the most e5pensive initiative in Katin America since the 2old 7ar, the

3&+& has militari)ed the battle a:ainst the traffic4ers, spendin: more than [2 billion in the past decade& 3&+& Army troops, Air Force pilots and 0avy ships outfitted %ith 2oast =uard counternarcotics teams are routinely deployed to chase, trac4 and capture dru: smu::lers& 9he sophistication and violence of the traffic4ers is so :reat that the 3&+& military is trainin: not only la% enforcement a:ents in Katin American nations, but their militaries as %ell, buildin: a net%or4 of e5pensive hard%are, radar, airplanes, ships, run%ays and refuelin: stations to stem the tide of ille:al dru:s from +outh America to the 3&+&
Accordin: to +tate 6epartment and Penta:on officials, stoppin: dru:(traffic4in: or:ani)ations has become a matter of national security because they spread corruption, undermine fled:lin: democracies and can potentially finance terrorists& 3&+& dru: c)ar =il >erli4o%s4e, pointin: to dramatic declines in violence and cocaine production in 2olombia, says the strate:y %or4s& < 9he results are historic and have tremendous

implications, not 'ust for the 3nited +tates and the 7estern ;emisphere, but for the %orl d,< he said at a conference on
dru: policy last year& 9he Associated Press e5amined 3&+& arms e5port authori)ations, defense contracts, military aid, and e5ercises in the re:ion, trac4in: a dru: %ar strate:y that be:an in 2olombia, moved to /e5ico and is no% findin: fresh focus in 2entral America, %here brutal cartels mar4 an enemy motivated not by ideolo:y but by cash& 9he 3&+& authori)ed the sale of a record [2&B billion %orth of :uns, satellites,

radar eMuipment and tear :as to 7estern ;emisphere nations in 2 !!, four times the authori)ed sales !

years a:o, accordin: to the latest +tate 6epartment reports& Over the same decade, defense contracts 'umped from [!!? million to [F2? million, supportin: everythin: from >evlar helmets for the /e5ican army to airport run%ays in Aruba, accordin: to federal contract data& Kast year [B" million, almost [?

out of every [! of 3&+& la% enforcement and military aid spent in the re:ion, %ent to%ard counterin: narcotic s,
up " percent in the past decade&

Nuclear War ?/221

MICHIGAN 7WS 2013

C(&na -con
Current slo"%o"n 3r&ef an% )ro"t( e1pecte% @euters 7/21 (2hinese economy set to turn around, no hard landin:# finance minister, E$2!$!",
http#$$%%%&reuters&com$article$2 !"$ E$2!$us(china(finmin(id3+1-G?F> 2J2 !" E2!*$$7K 2hinaAs finance minister denied that the %orldAs second(lar:est economy %as

enterin: a crisis period, addin: that he believed :ro%th could even accelerate, as Muoted by the official Yinhua ne%s service in an intervie%& 9he report Muoted Kou Ji%ei, spea4in: on the sidelines of the =2 conference on +aturday, sayin: he e5pected 2hinaAs economic :ro%th to end the year at E&D percent, the official tar:et rate& A Yinhua report on July !2 that Muoted him sayin: he e5pected :ro%th to come in at E percent caused brief
mar4et confusion, but Yinhua later chan:ed the report to Muote him as sayin: E&D percent& <7e see domestic po%er :eneration and electricity consumption increased by @ percent, and the service industryAs usa:e of electricity increased B percent,< Kou said, ar:uin: that the increases

sho%ed efforts to shift 2hinaAs economy to%ards services from manufacturin: %ere bearin: fruit& <0one of my fello% dele:ates thin4 2hina is :oin: to have a hard landin: &< 9he intervie% %as published late on +aturday, a day after 1ei'in: announced it %ould remove the floor under ban4 lendin: rates in a move to free up interest rates, %hich planners hope %ill put 2hinaAs economy on a more sustainable :ro%th path& Kou said 2hina %ould continue ta5 reforms to
promote :ro%th, in particular by convertin: sales ta5es to value(added ta5es (QA9*, %hile cuttin: do%n on paper%or4 and application reMuirements for 2hinese businesses& ;is vie%s %ere more mi5ed on the countryAs real estate industry, %hich re:ulators and economists fear is distorted by speculation and fuels inflation& 9he industry should play a <normal< role in economic development, he said, addin: that its place in 2hinaAs urbani)ation pro'ect reMuired further study& Kou said that people tal4ed about risin: housin: prices, but the industry faced other issues, includin: surplus housin: in some cities and insufficient land supply in others& </any developers lac4 confidence and many buyers are holdin: bac4,< he added& <9herefore the +tate 2ouncil needs to continue to research the lon:(term mechanism of real estate development,< he said in a reference to 2hinaAs cabinet& Kou also %arned the 3nited +tates a:ainst e5itin: from its monetary easin: pro:ram %ithout considerin: the impact of the move on the economies of other countries&

Ne" st&mulus "&ll 3r&n) more lon)2term )ro"t( A&nanc&al ,&mes 7/26 (2hina unveils measures to boost economy, E$2@$!", http#$$%%%&ft&com$intl$cms$s$
!@@feabdc &htmlOa5))2Z)'eQla;*$$7K

$D@?e

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2hina has unveiled measures to boost its slu::ish economy, in the stron:est indication yet of the leadership8s concern about the slo%do%n and one that also underscores a shift in 1ei'in:8s approach to mana:in: its economy & 9he mini stimulus, thou:h limited in si)e, could herald more policy moves to prop up :ro%th & 9he :overnment %ill eliminate ta5es on small businesses, reduce costs for e5porters and line up funds for the construction of rail%ays & 3nli4e 2 B %hen 2hina deployed a :ar:antuan stimulus pac4a:e to fend off the :lobal financial crisis, it is instead usin: a series of tar:eted reforms to reduce the po%er of the :overnment and :ive companies more space to operate & 9he +tate 2ouncil, 2hina8s cabinet, said late on 7ednesday it hoped to arouse the ener:y of the mar4et& Ct announced a three(pron:ed approach& First, it has temporarily scrapped all value(added and operatin: ta5es on businesses %ith monthly sales of less than -mb2 , ([",2D *& Ct said the ta5 cuts, %hich :o into effect at the start of Au:ust, %ould help more than Fm enterprises %hich employ tens of millions of people +econd, the :overnment pled:ed to simplify approval procedures and reduce administrative costs for e5portin: companies& Amon: the various moves, it said it %ould temporarily cancel inspection fees for commodities e5ports and streamline customs inspections of manufactured :oods& 9hird, it said it %ould create more financin: channels to ensure that the country can fulfill its ambitious rail%ay development plans & /ore private investors %ill be encoura:ed to participate and ne% bond products %ill be issued& Pou can call this a mini(stimulus& Ct8s Muite small but it8s on the supply side, and that8s more efficient, said Ku 9in:, an economist %ith 1an4 of America /errill Kynch 9he policy pac4a:e follo%ed yet more evidence of 2hina8s
deepenin: do%nturn& A preliminary survey of the country8s manufacturin: sector in July, published on 7ednesday, fell to an !!(month lo%& 2hinese :ro%th slo%ed to E&D per cent :ro%th year(on(year in the second Muarter and most analysts e5pect it to %ea4en further over the rest of the year& 1ut earlier this %ee4 Ki >eMian:, the premier, made clear that the official :ro%th tar:et for the year remained at E&D per cent, comments %hich some observers read as a si:n that the :overnment %as ready to intervene to pull the economy out of its fun4& Cn announcin: the reforms, the +tate 2ouncil said the economy %as in reasonable shape but that it needed to push for%ard reforms to stabilise :ro%th& A day earlier the +tate 2ouncil had decreed a ban on the construction of all ne% :overnment buildin:s for the ne5t five years& 9he ban %as the latest step in a campai:n by Yi Jinpin:, 2hina8s president, to rein in ostentatious spendin: by 2ommunist party officials, a ma'or source of public discontent& 1ut it %as also a si:n of ho% the :overnment is tryin: to direct public money to%ards more productive ends as :ro%th slo%s& 7e must really use our limited funds and resources for the development of the economy and the improvement of people8s lives, the +tate 2ouncil said&

C(&nese econom' %o&n) "ell no" cont&nue% )ro"t( "&ll come Aran#l&n 7/2* Professor of finance and economics at the 3niversity of Pennsylvania (2hinaAs economy %ill
continue to prosper, E$2F$!" http#$$en:lish&peopledaily&com&cn$? EEB$B"@2@@"&html*$$7K Allen Fran4lin, 0ippon Kife Professor of Finance and Gconomics at the 7harton +chool of the 3niversity of Pennsylvania,

tal4ed about the current situation and outloo4 of the 2hinese economy, pointin: out that the %orldAs second lar:est economy 000-conom&es000

Nuclear War MICHIGAN 7WS 2013 4/221 %ill continue to boom and contribute to the :lobal economy& ,# 7hat do you thin4 of 2hinaAs present economic situationH Cs 2hina
enterin: an era of slo%er :ro%thH Cs the slo% =6P :ro%th beneficial to 2hinaAs lon:(term economyH Allen Fran4lin# C thin4 :ro%th %ill be slo%er than it has been in the recent past, maybe around E(E&D percent& C thin4 the economy %ill continue at this 4ind of rate for the ne5t year

or t%o& Ct is slo% relative to the last fe% years but faster than any other ma'or country& Overall there are some %ea4nesses in the economy&
Kocal :overnment finance needs to be reformed& /any do not have the funds to cover payments on loans in independent entities they set up to borro% funds from ban4s& Gither the central :overnment needs to step in or they need to provide them %ith a source of income& 9he :overnment also needs to restrict credit some%hat to slo% do%n the rise in property prices& 9he recent liMuidity sMuee)e seems desi:ned to do this& C thin4 it is beneficial

for 2hinaAs economy to :ro% at this some%hat slo%er rate as it is more sustainable & ,# 7hat contributions has 2hina made to the :lobal economyH Allen Fran4lin# 9he 2hinese economy has contributed :reatly to the :lobal economy& Ct has helped recovery from the :lobal crisis& ,# ;o% do you see 2hinaAs economic outloo4 in the short(term and in the lon: runH 7hat challen:es or problems lie ahead for 2hinaAs economyH Allen Fran4lin# Cn the lon: term C thin4 2hinaAs economy %ill continue to prosper& 9he :overnment has done a very :ood 'ob for the last three decades& C thin4 the ne% leadership %ill continue this& ,# 7ould you offer some su::estions or proposals on the 2hinese economyH Allen Fran4lin# C thin4 it is important to move ahead
%ith openin: the capital account in 2hina and after that ma4in: the -/1 convertible& 9his %ill allo% the :overnment the forei:n e5chan:e reserves and provide more credit to small and medium si)ed enterprises& 9he :overnment appears to be pressin: ahead %ith this& 9he re:ional ban4s should be encoura:ed to :ro% and provide credit to private firms&

C(&na res&l&ent current slo"%o"n "&ll (elp 3u&l% res&l&enc' CN$C 7/17 (9he lon: :ame# 7hy a 2hina slo%do%n isnAt scary, E$!E$!", http#$$%%%&cnbc&com$id$! B?2?!D*$$7K 9he fi:ures havenAt been 4ind to 2hina lately& =one are the days of double di:it :ro%th, trade data have %ea4ened, credit mar4ets have overheated and fears of a housin: bubble remain& 1ut despite the bearish headlines, the lon:(term picture for 2hina loo4s Muite :ood and a slo%do%n mi:ht actually be healthy , accordin: to ;+12& <9his is a lon: term play,< James Gmmett, :lobal head of trade and receivables at ;+12 told 2012& <Absolutely there is lon: term sustainable :ro%th& 1ut it is the evolution and the chan:e that needs to ta4e place, and some of the reforms that need to ta4e place %hich %ill be 4ey as to ho% Muic4ly that happens&< Gmmett told 2012 that decades of double di:it :ro%th for 2hina had become unsustainable, and the recent slo%do%n for any company e5portin: to 2hina is part of a natural cycle as the economy rebalances& < 7e are inherently movin: into ne% phase form the 2hinese perspective& C thin4 that is around the suitability of development& C thin4 it is
around the stability of development, C thin4 the :overnment is very focused on that,< he said& 2hinaAs :ross domestic product (=6P* slo%ed in the second Muarter, comin: in at E&D percent year(on(year, do%n from E&E percent in the first three months of the year& Ct follo%ed disappointin: import data for 2hina, %hich missed e5pectations by a %ide mar:in last %ee4& Cmports declined &E percent year(on(year in June, a:ainst a forecast of a rise of B percent& 9he bad ne%s prompted analysts from +ociete =enerale to do%n:rade their outloo4 for 2hinaAs :ro%th to 'ust @(D percent in seven years& 9he poor run of data comes at a time %hen the countryAs ne% leadership is steppin: up re:ulation, curbin: an overheated credit mar4et and s%itchin: an e5port(focused economy into a consumer(driven one& 1ut critics still remain, %ith James 2hanos of >yni4os Associates tellin: 2012 on 7ednesday at the 6eliverin: Alpha conference thatAs heAs not convinced that the 2hinese authorities 4no% %hat they are doin:& <CtAs been a :reat place to be short,< he said, addin: that he has made money in the last fe% years in the ban4in:, real estate, cement and steel sectors& -espondin: to the latest data from the country, he said that the rebalancin: that is freMuently tal4ed about 'ust isnAt happenin:& <CtAs a very comple5 economy& CtAs not sub'ect to pushin: buttons and pullin: levers as everybody thin4s it is,< he said& +ome 7estern companies are already adaptin: to the slo%do%n in 2hina and tryin: to reduce their ris4s& <9here has been a bi: hiccup %ith lu5ury in 2hina,< =iles Gn:lish, co(founder of %atchma4er 1remont %hich e5ports to 2hina said& <CtAs about spreadin: your ris4 in the country, so you :et some teethin: problems but \trade] %ill come bac4&< Gmmett said it %asnAt 'ust the lu5ury :oods sector that could thrive in 2hinaAs consumption(led future& ;e sees

opportunities for forei:n companies in pharmaceuticals, hi(tech, capital :oods and services& 2hinaAs domestic consumption remains <resilient<, accordin: to an Cnternational /onetary Fund (C/F* report on the country released on 7ednesday& 9he C/F predicts 2hinaAs economy %ill :ro% E&ED percent this year and that internal demand %ill offset any <lin:erin: %ea4ness in the e5ternal environment<& <\ C/F] directors underscored the importance of transitionin: to a ne% :ro%th path that is more consumption(based, inclusive, and environmentally friendly&
9hey %elcomed the authoritiesA reform strate:y in this direction, %hich charts a path to%ard miti:atin: ris4s, rebalancin: :ro%th, and addressin: income disparities, thus safe:uardin: 2hinaAs important contribution to :lobal :ro%th,< the Fund said in a press release& 9here %as also encoura:in:

ne%s on forei:n direct investment (F6C* on 7ednesday& F6C in 2hina for June 'umped 2

&! percent from a year a:o, the 2ommerce /inistry said,

2hinaAs important role as the %orldAs factory %ill remain and the country %ill need serious amounts of ne% infrastructure, the ban4 believes& 2hinaAs rail%ay
%hich is the lar:est monthly :ain since /arch 2 !!& 1ut 2hinaAs future is not all about consumption, accordin: to ;+12& net%or4 is still shorter than the 3&+& rail net%or4 in !BB and there are more than B 2hinese cities %ith a population of over D million that still have no sub%ay system& <People need to :rasp the scale of 2hina,< Peter /cCntyre, head of the 3&>&As trade and receivables sector at ;+12 told 2012& <+o itAs not 'ust to treat 2hina, in many respects, as an Asian mar4et but as many mar4ets in %hat is an enormous country&&& C still see a tremendous

:ro%th opportunity&<

No (ar% lan%&n) com&n) trans&t&on p(ase means lon)2term susta&na3le )ro"t( Bou#oulas 7/15 ( an economist in :overnment, ;ead of economic and mar4et research, economic advisor to the Prime /inister (Qital si:ns from 2hina, E$!D$!", http#$$%%%&businessspectator&com&au$article$2 !"$E$!D$economy$vital(si:ns(
china*$$7K

Nuclear War 10/221

MICHIGAN 7WS 2013

All eyes in :lobal mar4ets are turnin: to 2hina& 9he release of its June Muarter =6P later today %ill be bi: ne%s, %hatever the result& 9he consensus forecast is for annual =6P :ro%th of E&DI, but the bi::er story and source of speculation %ill be %here the 2hinese economy is headin: in the second half of 2 !" and into 2 !@& 7ith the 3+ recovery assuredJ it is possible that this time ne5t year :ro%th %ill be above "I %ith the unemployment rate belo% EIJperhaps the bi::est threat to :lobal mar4ets and economic stability over the ne5t !2 months is not the 3+, but %hat is happenin: in 2hina& Cn the last %ee4 or so, the 2hinese :overnment has been si:nalin: that =6P :ro%th %ill slo% further in the near term, %ith one official :ro%th forecast over the %ee4end at around EI& 9he outloo4, from the country8s finance minister, Kou Ji%ei, %as later corrected to E&DI in reports from official ne%s a:ency Yinhua& 1ut 2hina has not recorded such a lo% :ro%th rate since !?? , and this is %here the mar4et nervousness is no doubt based& Cn itself, this

is seen as some form of hard landin: & A 2"(year lo% for =6P :ro%th certainly reinforces that impression& As noted last %ee4 the most recent :overnment five(year plan, set in 2 !!, had a pro'ection for =6P :ro%th of EI& =iven the economy is on trac4 to meet that tar:et in 2 !" from a stron:er pace previously , one mi:ht ar:ue that the faster rate of e5pansion in 2 !2 %as a bonus and %hat %e are seein: no% is a more mature 2hinese economy re:isterin: %hat %ill become the ne% normal for the ne5t decade or so& Cn terms of :lobal pressures from a less rapid :ro%th path for 2hina, it should be noted that EI =6P :ro%th no% is a much more po%erful stimulant than the !2I :ro%th in the early !?? s& 9he math8s are simple& Cn the early !?? s 2hina8s annual =6P %as a little over [3+! trillion, meanin: !2I =6P :ro%th %as addin: no more than [!D billion a year to :lobal :ro%th& Fast for%ard to today, %here 2hina8s annual =6P is over [3+B trillion, and a EI :ro%th rate adds nearly [3+F billion a year to the :lobal economy& Qie%ed another %ay, per capita =6P in !?B in 2hina %as around [3+"! per annum&
%hen loo4in: at the lift in 2hinese inflation , 9he people %ere e5ceedin:ly poor& Ct ed:ed up to [3+"@@ per annum in !?? , and since then it has sur:ed& 1y 2 , per capita =6P had trebled to [3+! @2, it doubled a:ain by 2 F and doubled yet a:ain by 2 ! to [3+@@"@& Preliminary estimates su::est that per capita =6P %as around [3+F! in 2 !2, and it is on trac4 to e5ceed [3+! , by 2 2 & 9his hi:hli:hts not only the spectacular rise of the 2hinese economy but also the fact that

2hina is no% :oin: throu:h a transition phase& As 2hina8s national income and =6P per capita reach a hi:her level, the scope for :ro%th diminishes& 9hat time is about no%& +tructural chan:es in 2hina over t%o decades mean that the potential :ro%th rate is less rapid, and there is no doubt that this messa:e %ill slo%ly but surely be understood in the mar4ets over the months and then years ahead& For no%, the obvious structural chan:e is also bein: met %ith a cyclical coolin: in
activity& 9he recession in Gurope is hurtin: 2hina8s manufacturin: sector& 2hina8s bi::est e5port mar4et is in fact the euro)one, %hich has been sho%in: up in some%hat disappointin: 2hinese e5port data in recent times& 9his is li4ely to be a 4ey factor behind the :ro%th moderation that %ill be evident in today8s =6P result& At the same time, there is a property :lut, %hich means a period of %ea4er activity in that sector is needed before the e5cess supply is cleared&

No collapse com&n) reforms sol+e current %&p C(&na Da&l' 7/14 (A6o%nside ris4 can be mana:edA, E$!?$!", http#$$%%%&ecns&cn$business$2 !"$ E(!?$E"E "&shtml*$$7K 2hina still has the ability to deal %ith economic do%nside ris4s in the comin: months and achieve the :ro%th tar:et of this year, maintainin: one of the stron:est drivin: forces in the %orld, an economist from the Cnternational /onetary Fund told 2hina 6aily on 9hursday& <9he recent slo%do%n should stabili)e and %e e5pect a moderate uptic4 durin: the second half of the year as the :lobal economy improves and the rapid credit :ro%th in the first Muarter :ains traction,< said /urta)a +yed, resident representative in 2hina at the C/F& Provided stron: reforms are put in place, <in the ne5t three to five years, %e should see a rebalancin: of 2hinaAs economy that places it on a path of stron: and sustainable :ro%th <, +yed said& 6espite the moderate coolin: do%n in the first half this year, the %orldAs second(lar:est economy :re% to 2@&B trillion yuan ([@& @ trillion* by the end of June, up E&F percent year(on(year& 9he economy contributed almost 2D percent of total :lobal =6P :ro%th, <doin: the :lobal economy a bi: favor<, accordin: to +yed& A report from the C/F released on 7ednesday said, <2hina still has si:nificant buffers to %eather shoc4s, but the mar:ins of safety are diminishin:&< 9he <buffers< include usin: fiscal stimulus and mobili)in: forei:n e5chan:e reserves and lar:e savin:s, the economist said& 9he report forecast that the economy can maintain :ro%th of about E&ED percent for the full year, %hich means a <hard landin:< is less possible& <At this time, there is no need for ma'or stimulus in the economy, %hich has been accepted by the ne% leadership,< +yed added& 9ar:etin: lon:(term mar4et(oriented :ro%th, the
:overnment pointed to the hi:her contribution to :ro%th from real consumption than from real :ross fi5ed capital formation over the past t%o years, stron: :ro%th of services relative to manufacturin:, rapid increases in urban and rural household incomes, and :ro%th in central and %estern provinces outstrippin: that in the more affluent coastal provinces, the C/F report said& A recent statement from Premier Ki >eMian: said that < some ups and

do%ns in the economy are natural and necessaryR the ob'ective of policy is to avoid too much volatility <& Ct can be seen as evidence that policyma4ers %ere confident that continuin: reforms %ould achieve the desired rebalancin: to a
more consumer(based economy, the report added& Cnstead of e5ports, domestic consumption has become the ma'or support to the economy& 9he services sector %ill become the most potential drivin: force in the future, accordin: to +yed& Cn the first half, consumption contributed @D&2 percent of =6P, or "&@ percenta:e points out of a E&F percent year(on(year =6P :ain& Cnvestment %as the bi::est driver, contributin: D"&? percent to =6P, @&! percenta:e points of the :ro%th, accordin: to the 0ational 1ureau of +tatistics& +yed stressed that the heavy reliance on credit and investment to sustain activity is raisin: vulnerabilities, %hich %ill add pressure on the financial sector, local :overnments and corporate balance sheets& 9he C/F estimates that the <au:mented< :overnment debt %as @D percent of =6P in 2 !2, and the <au:mented< fiscal deficit %as around ! percent& ;e >en:, the former director of the 0ational 1ureau of +tatistics, said that any fiscal stimulus should be underta4en <cautiously<& Any increase of credit should be done ma4in: sure that it can be repaid, in order to limit the ris4s of local debt problems and the shado% ban4in: system, he said& C:or Arsenin, an economist at 1arclays 2apital, said that the do%nside ris4s to :ro%th have been reduced at the mar:in& <Policy support is li4ely to come in the form of channelin: e5istin: liMuidity and providin: subsidies to priority areas such as urban infrastructure, affordable public housin: and consumption,< he said&

Nuclear War 11/221

MICHIGAN 7WS 2013

Data s#e"e% C(&nese )ro"t( as a percenta)e of "orl% )ro"t( &s (&)(er t(an e+er A&nanc&al ,&mes 7/23 (2hina# +lo%er but steady, E$2"$!", http#$$%%%&ft&com$intl$cms$s$ $c"fB!B"@(f2d@(!!e2(B 2f(
!@@feabdc &htmlOslide *$$7K 2hina8s demand for ne% roads, rail%ays and homes is %anin:, %hile forei:n demand for yet more 2hinese :oods e5ports has been satisfied& 2hina has realised that allo%in: its investment share of national income to rise from a little over @ per cent before the financial crisis to a touch under D per cent today has made the eventual rebalancin: to%ards consumption even more difficult& +lo%in: and rebalancin: in 2hina mi:ht hurt some but the effects should not be e5a::erated& 7hen 2hina started to :ro% at ! per cent a year in the early !?B s, its e5pansion %as as

valuable for the %orld economy as the 3+ :ro%in: at ! per cent& Ct %as nice to have but easy to i:nore& Over a Muarter century of phenomenal 2hinese :ro%th, if its economy e5pands by B per cent today, it is the eMuivalent of the 3+ :ro%in: @ per cent& A 2hinese economy :ro%in: at an annual rate of E&D per cent, as it did in the second Muarter, is still contributin: more to :lobal demand :ro%th than e5pansion in any other economy & 9he slo%do%n is therefore only a problem for those naively e5pectin: ! per cent :ro%th to last forever & -ebalancin:, on
the other hand, %ill :enerate %inners and losers& 9hose feelin: nervous must include commodity e5porters, such as Australia, %hich has fuelled 2hinese construction %ith its iron ore& As Prime /inister >evin -udd said, his country no% faces the end of a decade(lon: resources boom so diversification and productivity are no lon:er important for Australia, they are essential& 1ut there %ill be %inners, too& +o lon: as 2hina mana:es to

encoura:e consumption and a :radual shift to%ards a lar:er service sector, producers of other :oods and services consumed in 2hina %ill benefit& Andreas -ees of 3ni2redit notes that even thou:h =erman car e5ports to 2hina have fallen this year, such is the pent(up demand that it is li4ely to represent a pause in an up%ard trend rather than a reversal& 9he envisa:ed rebalancin: of the 2hinese economy to%ards more consumption should lift private households8 appetite for autos even further , he says& 9here
are ris4s alon: this road to rebalancin:& 2hinese investment mi:ht drop before consumption pic4s up the baton, turnin: a slo%do%n into a 2hinese slump, %hich %ould create losers alone& +uch an outcome is possible and, as the C/F recommended in its annual surveillance mission to 2hina, si:nificant reform is needed to prevent such an outcome& 1ut is a disaster li4ely %here the %hole %orld is the loserH 9he

consensus is no& Gconomic conventional %isdom has an unfortunate habit of bein: spectacularly %ron: in recent years but almost everyone still a:rees that there is little si:n that the :lobal economic crisis is about to have a 2hinese third act to follo% the 3+ and euro)one, %hich starred in Acts One and 9%o&

@eforms no" sol+e econom&c res&l&ence C(&na Da&l' 7/21 (2hina sends stron: si:nal of <deep(%ater< reform, E$2!$!", http#$$%%%&chinadaily&com&cn$china$2
E$2!$contentL!FB FD""&htm*$$7K

!"(

Cn freein: up lendin: rates, 2hina has sent a stron: si:nal that it is feelin: its %ay in the <deep %ater< of reform , movin: to%ard a more open, mar4et(oriented economy & On Friday, 2hinaAs central ban4 announced the sooner( than(e5pected removal of controls on ban4 lendin: rates , effective on +aturday& Ct canceled the floor limit for lendin: interest rates to allo% financial institutions to compete for borro%ers& <Cn :eneral, %e believe the macro and micro conditions are ready for further reforms,< said a central ban4 official %ho spo4es to Yinhua on condition of anonymity& 2hinaAs :ross domestic product (=6P*
:ro%th slo%ed to E&F percent in the January(June period, the %ea4est first(half performance in three years but still above the lo%er limit that the :overnment %ill tolerate& /2, a broad measure of money supply that covers cash in circulation and all deposits, increased !@ percent year on year to ! D&@D trillion yuan (!E trillion 3&+& dollars* at the end of June& Cn response to the :overnmentAs <de(levera:in:< approaches, 2hinese lenders %ere hit by a severe liMuidity crunch last month, as indicated by a sur:e in the +han:hai Cnterban4 Offered -ate overni:ht rate, a basic :au:e of interban4 borro%in: costs, to an historic hi:h of !"&@@ percent on June 2 & 0evertheless, the +tate 2ouncil, 2hinaAs cabinet, reiterated on July D that it

%ould <ma4e steady pro:ress in the mar4et(based reform of interest rates and let the mar4et play a bi::er role in the allocation of capital&< Amid a continuous economic slo%do%n and increasin: ris4s in the financial mar4et , the latest move has reaffirmed the :overnmentAs absolute determination to secure stable :ro%th and restructure the economy , said Pin Jianfen:, a researcher at the 2hinese Academy of +ocial +ciences, a :overnment thin4 tan4& < Kar:e and medium(si)ed enterprises %ith :ood Mualifications %ill have stron:er bar:ainin: po%er %hen see4in: loans, and in this sense, the move %ill
help stabili)e economic :ro%th,< said Kian Pin:, chief economist %ith 1an4 of 2ommunications& On the other hand, micro and small enterprises, %hich usually accept interest rates ! to " percent above the :uideline rate, %ill become more attractive to ban4s& 9his %ill ease the credit crunch amon: small businesses and in'ect vi:or into these 'ob :enerators, said Kian& Ct is also %orth notin: that the central ban4 did not ease its controls over mort:a:e rates, indicatin: that the :overnment is not pleased %ith risin: property prices& Out of a statistical pool of E 2hinese cities, F" sa% month(on( month home price rises in June, do%n from FD cities that reported hi:her prices in /ay, the 0ational 1ureau of +tatistics reported 9hursday& As 2hinaAs economic reform deepens, the former :ro%th pattern that focused on investment and e5ports %as found to be unsustainable, the latest in %hat e5perts call the surprisin: tumbles of e5ports and imports& G5ports dropped "&! percent year on year to !E@&"2 billion 3&+& dollars, %hile imports declined &E percent from a year earlier to !@E&!? billion 3&+& dollars, accordin: to the =eneral Administration of 2ustoms& <Gurope is still stru::lin: to recover from a steep do%nturn and the Muantitative easin: in the :lobal economy %ill add to uncertainties,< said Zhuan: Jian, an economist at the Asian 6evelopment 1an4& Cnvestors %ere calmed by 3&+& Fed 2hairman 1en 1ernan4eAs testimony to 2on:ress this %ee4& 1ernan4e told the +enate 1an4in: 2ommittee on 9hursday that it %as <%ay too early to ma4e any 'ud:ment< as to %hether taperin: %ill start in +eptember& 7ary of rene%ed mar4et volatility, the =roup of 2 (=2 * nations on Friday pled:ed to shift policy carefully and communicate clearly as they navi:ate a path to%ard recovery& 9he latest move by 2hinaAs central ban4 left a ceilin: on deposit rates unchan:ed& <9hat is the most critical and ris4y part of interest rate mar4et reform as sho%n by other countriesA e5periences,< said the official %ith the central ban4& 9he removal of deposit rate ceilin:s in the 3nited +tates resulted in massive ban4 failures in the !?E s and !?B s& 2hinaAs reform of interest rates be:an in !??F& 9he central ban4 has vo%ed to liberali)e deposit rates in a <steadily and orderly< manner&

Nuclear War 12/221

MICHIGAN 7WS 2013

C(&na "&ll pre+ent )ro"t( rates 3elo" 7C $loom3er) 7/23 (2hina +ees EI as 1ottom(Kine =ro%th 9olerable in +lo%do%n, E$22$!", http#$$%%%&bloomber:&com$ne%s$2
s(:overnment(sees(E(as(:ro%th(bottom(line(chinese(media(say&html*$$7K Premier Ki >eMian:8s :overnment sees E percent :ro%th as

!"( E(2"$li(

the bottom line for tolerance of an economic slo%do%n, 2hinese

ne%s or:ani)ations reported, si:nalin: the nation %ill act to support e5pansion if needed & G5pansion belo% E percent %on8t be accepted because 2hina needs to achieve a moderately prosperous society by 2 2 , accordin: to a commentary published July 2! by the official Yinhua 0e%s A:ency and credited to reporter 7an: Pue%ei& Ki said at a recent meetin: %ith economists that E percent is the bottom line and the nation can8t allo% :ro%th belo% that, the 1ei'in: 0e%s reported today& 2hinese stoc4s rose the most since July !! on optimism that the :overnment %ill

limit the depth of a slo%do%n after :ross domestic product rose E&D percent in the second Muarter from a year earlier, the same pace as an official 2 !" tar:et& Ki previously said the :overnment shouldn8t let :ro%th and employment fall belo% lo%er limits that he didn8t specify& 9he comments confirmed that the :overnment8s acceptable ran:e for :ro%th this year is bet%een E percent and E&D percent, said 2han: Jian, a ;on: >on:(based economist at 1arclays Plc %ho formerly %or4ed for the 7orld 1an4& As economic :ro%th is slo%in: to belo% E&D percent, the :overnment policy8s focus is :radually shiftin: to stabili)in: :ro%th& 9he +han:hai 2omposite Cnde5 (+;2O/P* :ained 2 percent, %ith rail(related stoc4s sur:in: on speculation that the
:overnment %ill ramp up construction& Ko%er Kimit Other parts of the reports may add to confusion on the :overnment8s tolerance for a slo%do%n& 9he Yinhua commentary said E&D percent is the lo%er limit for :ro%th this year %hile the 1ei'in: 0e%s reported Ki said the lo%er limit for

2hina8s =6P e5pansion is E&D percent& 9he articles didn8t elaborate on the difference bet%een a lo%er limit and a bottom line& Cnvestors
are focused on the possibility of additional support measures after e5ports fell last month by the most since the :lobal financial crisis& Analysts at /i)uho +ecurities Asia Ktd& and 1an4 of America 2orp& focused on a purported transcript of Ki8s comments, circulatin: on the internet& 9he +tate 2ouncil Cnformation Office didn8t respond to a fa5ed Muestion from 1loomber: 0e%s about the authenticity of the account& ^Cmportant Cnformation8 Ku 9in:, head of =reater 2hina economics at 1an4 of America in ;on: >on:, said the transcript %as important information, %ith Ki indicatin: that the floor for :ro%th this year %as E&D percent, %hile E percent %as the lo%er limit for the period throu:h 2 2 & Ku said that the :overnment may roll

out a small scale fiscal e5pansion includin: spendin: on rail%ays , social housin: and environmental and information(technolo:y infrastructure& +hen Jian:uan:, chief Asia economist at /i)uho in ;on: >on:, said E&D percent is the lo%er limit this year
and E percent is the boundary startin: ne5t year& 9he :overnment is already tryin: to support e5pansion %ith spendin: on rail%ays, city infrastructure and environmental protection, +hen said& Finance /inister Kou Ji%ei said in a press briefin: in 7ashin:ton on July !! that :ro%th as lo% as F&D percent may be tolerable in the future& 7hile the :overnment in /arch set a 2 !" :ro%th :oal of E&D percent, Kou said he8s confident E percent can be achieved this year& Yinhua later amended its Gn:lish(lan:ua:e report on Kou to say there8s no doubt that 2hina can achieve this year8s :ro%th tar:et of E&D percent&

C(&na econom' )o&n) to collapse no" t(e mo%el &s not susta&na3le Bru)man 7/1? ( American economist, Professor of Gconomics at Princeton 3niversity, smartest economist ever (Paul, ;ittin: 2hina8s 7all, E$!B$!", 0e% Por4 9imes, http#$$%%%&nytimes&com$2 !"$ E$!?$opinion$4ru:man(hittin:(chinas(%all&htmlH
LrS *$$7K All economic data are best vie%ed as a peculiarly borin: :enre of science fiction, but 2hinese data are even more fictional than most& Add a secretive :overnment, a controlled press, and the sheer si)e of the country, and it8s harder to fi:ure out %hat8s really happenin: in 2hina than it is in any other ma'or economy& Pet the si:ns are no% unmista4able# 2hina is in bi: trouble & 7e8re not tal4in: about some minor setbac4 alon: the %ay, but somethin: more fundamental& 9he decades of incredible :ro%th, has

country8s %hole %ay of doin: business, the economic system that has driven three reached its limits& Pou could say that the 2hinese model is about to hit its =reat 7all, and the only Muestion no% is 'ust ho% bad the crash %ill be& +tart %ith the data, unreliable as they may be& 7hat immediately 'umps out at you %hen you compare 2hina %ith almost any other economy, aside from its rapid :ro%th, is the lopsided balance bet%een consumption and investment& All successful economies devote part of their current income to investment rather than consumption, so as to e5pand their future ability to consume& 2hina, ho%ever, seems to invest only to e5pand its future ability to invest even more& America, admittedly on the hi:h side, devotes E percent of its :ross domestic product to consumptionR for 2hina, the number is only half that hi:h, %hile almost half of =&6&P& is invested& ;o% is that even possibleH 7hat 4eeps consumption so lo%, and ho% have the 2hinese been able to invest so much %ithout (until no%* runnin: into sharply diminishin: returnsH 9he ans%ers are the sub'ect of intense controversy& 9he story that ma4es the most sense to me, ho%ever, rests on an old insi:ht by the economist 7& Arthur Ke%is , %ho ar:ued that countries in the early sta:es of economic development typically have a small modern sector alon:side a lar:e traditional sector containin: hu:e amounts of surplus labor J underemployed peasants ma4in: at best a mar:inal contribution to overall economic output& 9he e5istence of this surplus labor, in turn, has t%o effects& First, for a %hile such countries can invest heavily in ne% factories, construction, and so on %ithout runnin: into diminishin: returns, because they can 4eep dra%in: in ne% labor from the countryside& +econd, competition from this reserve army of surplus labor 4eeps %a:es lo% even as the economy :ro%s richer& Cndeed, the main thin: holdin: do%n 2hinese consumption seems to be that 2hinese families never see much of the income bein: :enerated by the country8s economic :ro%th& +ome of that income flo%s to a politically connected eliteR
but much of it simply stays bottled up in businesses, many of them state(o%ned enterprises& Ct8s all very peculiar by our standards, but it %or4ed for

Nuclear War 13/221

several decades& 0o%, ho%ever, 2hina

MICHIGAN 7WS 2013

has hit the Ke%is point J to put it crudely, it8s runnin: out of surplus peasants& 9hat that the 2hinese economy is suddenly faced %ith the need for drastic rebalancin: J the 'ar:on phrase of the moment& Cnvestment is
should be a :ood thin:& 7a:es are risin:R finally, ordinary 2hinese are startin: to share in the fruits of :ro%th& 1ut it also means no% runnin: into sharply diminishin: returns and is :oin: to drop drastically no matter %hat the :overnment doesR consumer spendin: must rise dramatically to ta4e its place& 9he Muestion is %hether this can happen fast enou:h to avoid a nasty slump& And the

ans%er, increasin:ly, seems to be no& 9he need for rebalancin: has been obvious for years, but 2hina 'ust 4ept puttin: off the necessary chan:es, instead boostin: the economy by 4eepin: the currency undervalued and floodin: it %ith cheap credit& (+ince someone is :oin: to raise this issue# no, this bears very little resemblance to the Federal -eserve8s policies here&* 9hese measures postponed the day of rec4onin:, but also ensured that this day %ould be even harder %hen it finally came & And no% it has arrived& ;o%
bi: a deal is this for the rest of usH At mar4et values J %hich is %hat matters for the :lobal outloo4 J 2hina8s economy is still only modestly bi::er than Japan8sR it8s around half the si)e of either the 3&+& or the Guropean 3nion& +o it8s bi: but not hu:e, and, in ordinary times, the %orld could probably ta4e 2hina8s troubles in stride& 3nfortunately, these aren8t ordinary times# 2hina is hittin: its Ke%is point at the same time that 7estern economies are :oin: throu:h their /ins4y moment, the point %hen overe5tended private borro%ers all try to pull bac4 at the same time, and in so doin: provo4e a :eneral slump& 2hina8s ne% %oes are the last thin: the rest of us needed& 0o doubt many readers are feelin: some intellectual %hiplash& Just the other day %e %ere afraid of the 2hinese& 0o% %e8re afraid for them& 1ut our situation has not improved&

-conom' fall&n) no" structural pro3lems @a' 7/21 7riter at 0e% Por4 Public /edia (Gsha, 2hinaAs Gconomy 2ould Cmplode J ;ereAs ;o% to Fi5 Ct, E$2!$!",
http#$$%%%&policymic&com$articles$DD" D$china(s(economy(could(implode(here(s(ho%(to(fi5(it*$$7K 2hinaAs economy is slo%in: do%n& From April to June 2 !", the countryAs =6P :re%

by E&DI& 9hatAs 2I less than this yearAs first Muarter and 2I less than the Muarter before that & Ct mi:ht not seem li4e much, but in its most recent report on the 2hinese economy, the Cnternational /onetary Fund emphasi)ed the need for more sustainable :ro%th& < +ince the :lobal crisis, a mi5 of investment, credit, and fiscal stimulus has underpinned activity ,< the report states& <9his pattern of :ro%th is not sustainable and is raisin: vulnerabilities&< 1ut ho% lar:e is this vulnerability that %e should be %orriedH 7hat does a slo%in: 2hinese
economy meanH 9o ans%er that Muestion, itAs important to understand the factors that have led to 2hinaAs success over the past fe% decades& 2hinaAs economy has been mostly e5port(led& Cts focus on e5ternal demand has stifled domestic consumption and has ramped up investment in a %ay that %ouldnAt be possible if the country relied solely on domestic demand& 1ut itAs not %or4in: anymore& 7hen the financial crisis of 2 B hit, 2hinaAs tradin: partners li4e the 3nited +tates and the nei:hborin: Asian countries stopped demandin: 2hinese :oods for fear of more debt& +o the country focused even more on investin: in sectors li4e real estate and infrastructure %hile 4eepin: their currency %ea4 so that their =6P %ould 4eep :ro%in:& 1ut 2hinese consumption hasnAt really moved and lendin: standards have become la5& < 9he credit(driven :ro%th model is clearly fallin: apart ,< Fitch -atin:s senior director in 1ei'in: 2harlene 2hi said to 9he 6aily 9ele:raph& < 9here

is no transparency in the shado% ban4in: system, and systemic ris4 is risin:& 7e have no idea %ho the borro%ers are, %ho the lenders are, and %hat the Muality of assets is, and this undermines si:nalin:&< 7ith the Guro)one still di::in: its %ay out of recession and the 3&+ slo%ly recoverin:, 2hinaAs %ea4enin: economy is not the :reatest ne%s& Accordin: to the economist John /aynard >eynes in his boo4 9he =eneral 9heory of Gmployment, Cnterest and /oney,
more investment is :ood, especially durin: times of recession, to 4eep people employed& 9hatAs e5actly %hat 2hina has been doin:& 9he past three decades have been filled %ith massive infrastructure pro'ects and creatin: hundreds of factories& 1ut the consumer economy and

healthcare, amon: other sectors, have been ne:lected& 1an4s have become used to lar:e credit e5pansions and lendin: out to investment pro'ects that may not pay bac4& +omeho%, it all has to be reined in& 2ountries li4e Australia, +outh Africa, and 1ra)il depend heavily on
e5portin: to 2hina and %ould be hit hard if 2hinese investment suddenly buc4led& 3&+& companies li4e PumX 1rands, Cnc& (%hich o%ns 9aco 1ell, >F2, and Pi))a ;ut* and Cntel have already started seein: slo%er :ro%th in 2hina& Fortunately, 2hina has a lot of forei:n currency reserves %hich could serve as a cushion for the :overnment %hile they try to transition the economy from e5ternal to domestic consumption& 1ut in doin: so, 2hina %ould have to step a%ay from the e5port(led :ro%th model that has proved so successful in past years and focus their attention on :ettin: the 2hinese to buy their o%n :oods& On Friday, the PeopleAs 1an4 of 2hina announced that it %ould lift restrictions on ban4 lendin: rates by no lon:er settin: a minimum rate for corporate loans& <CtAs a bi: symbolic move,< 7an: 9ao, a ;on: >on:(based economist at 31+, said to the 0e% Por4 9imes& <Ct means ban4s could char:e rates freely accordin: to their o%n ris4s assessments&< 6eposit loan rates %ould stay the same althou:h economists see that as a crucial ne5t step to re%ard households& CtAs a si:n that 2hina is %or4in: to rebalance the economy, shiftin: to%ards mar4et(led :ro%th& 1ut this is only the

be:innin:& Ct all depends on 2hinaAs %illin:ness to suffer short(term loss for lon:(term :ro%th or ris4 dra::in: the
rest of the %orld do%n %ith them&

C(&nese econom' slo"&n) no" current cr&s&s Ne" Dor# ,&mes 7/17 (C&/&F& 9ells 2hina of 3r:ent 0eed for Gconomic 2han:e, E$!E$!", http#$$%%%&nytimes&com$2
china(of(ur:ent(need(for(economic(chan:e&htmlHpa:e%antedSallTLrS *$$7K

!"$ E$!B$business$:lobal$imf(tells(

China8s :ro%th has slo%ed si:nificantly in recent months& 1ut even its current pace of e5pansion may not be sustainable, the Cnternational /onetary Fund %arned on 7ednesday, unless 2hina starts ma4in: si:nificant and systemic economic chan:es J and soon& +ince the :lobal crisis, a mi5 of investment, credit and fiscal stimulus has underpinned activity, the C&/&F& said in a ma'or annual assessment of the 2hinese economy& 9his pattern of :ro%th is not sustainable and is raisin: vulnerabilities& 7hile 2hina still has si:nificant buffers to %eather shoc4s, the mar:ins of safety are diminishin:& 9he

Nuclear War 16/221

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2hina still has lar:e forei:n currency reserves and plenty of room for ne% :overnment spendin: to buffer any une5pected shoc4s, /ar4us -odlauer, the C&/&F&8s 2hina mission chief, said in an intervie%& 1ut he said the 2hinese economy %as becomin: more vulnerable and chan:e %as becomin: more difficult to ma4e as time passes & 9he C&/&F& J %ith a variety of international economic officials, research :roups, academics and financial mar4et participants J has raised concern that money is pourin: into mispriced real estate and infrastructure investments in 2hina that are increasin: :ro%th in the short term but mi:ht do little for the 2hinese economy later& For decades, a cheap currency, cheap labor and hu:e infrastructure investment fueled
report emphasi)ed increasin: ris4s to the 2hinese economy, touchin: on familiar themes thou:h %ith more ur:ency than previous reports& enormous :ro%th& 2hina has made substantial pro:ress on rebalancin: its trade deficits %ith the rest of the %orld, the C&/&F& said, and its current( account balance as a share of its total economy is less than a Muarter of its precrisis pea4& 9he fund described the 2hinese currency as moderately undervalued, as it has for about a year after a lon: stretch of callin: it si:nificantly undervalued J a policy maneuver that helped increase 2hina8s e5ports but an:ered many countries %hose :oods became relatively less competitive& 1ut imbalances in 2hina8s domestic economy remain

lar:e, the C&/&F& %arned, as 2hinese consumers have not replaced consumers from the 3nited +tates, =ermany and other countries %ho helped sto4e 2hina8s :ro%th for years& 2onsumption rates have barely bud:ed from last year& 1ut net purchases of physical assets li4e roads, hospitals
and commercial buildin:s :re% further as a share of the economy& A decisive shift to%ard a more consumption(based :ro%th path has yet to occur, the C&/&F& said& Acceleratin: the transformation of the :ro%th model remains the main priority& 9he fund focused on a fe% areas of acute ris4& One is the financial system& 2hina has had a hu:e boom in lendin: throu:h less re:ulated parts of its financial system, the fund said& Ct raised concerns about the adeMuacy of 2hina8s re:ulatory controls, the Muality of under%ritin: and the pricin: of ris4& 9he formal ban4in: sector mi:ht not be as

stron: as it loo4s, either, the C&/&F& %arned& 1ased on reported data, ban4 balance sheets appear healthy and loan boo4s sho% only a modest
deterioration in asset Muality, the report said& ;o%ever, ban4s remain vulnerable to a sharper %orsenin: of corporate sector financial performance& Another issue is a proliferation of debt(financed spendin: by local :overnments %ithout adeMuate ta5 bases, often throu:h local :overnment financin: vehicles that have lon: been re:arded as a %ea4 spot in 2hina8s mar4ets& Further rapid :ro%th of debts %ould raise the ris4 of a disorderly ad'ustment in local :overnment spendin:, the C&/&F& %arned& Finally, it cautioned of the possibility of plummetin: prices in real estate mar4ets& Ct said real estate remained prone to bubbles in no small part because many 2hinese savers do not earn interest on their deposits and, as a result, push money into housin: mar4ets& /a4in: ad'ustments to the financial mar4ets and correctin: the pace of infrastructure spendin: mi:ht mean slo%er :ro%th in the near term, the C&/&F& has said& 1ut it mi:ht mean more sustainable :ro%th in the lon: term, %ith substantial benefits not 'ust for 2hina but also for :lobal :ro%th& 9hat messa:e %as delivered as the 2hinese economy is already slo%in:

considerablyR :ro%th has fallen to an annual pace of about E&D percent, do%n from a pea4 of more than !@ percent in 2

E, before the :lobal financial crisis& /ore broadly, the emer:in: mar4et economies that helped pull the %orld out of the :lobal recession have cooled, dra::in: the :lobal :ro%th rate do%n %ith them& =ro%th remains slu::ish in the 3nited +tates, and much of Gurope is mired in a recession& =ro%th in emer:in: mar4et economies %ill remain hi:h, much hi:her than in the advanced economies, but may be substantially lo%er than it %as before the crisis, Olivier 1lanchard, the chief economist for the C&/&F&, said at a ne%s briefin: this month& 9op 2hinese policy ma4ers are a%are of the issues that the C&/&F& and other analysts have raised, and they :enerally a:ree& 9hey have in part en:ineered the recent economic slo%do%n and have sho%n a %illin:ness to ma4e chan:es& 1ut fe% details are available about ho% the ne% 2hinese :overnment mi:ht move to revamp the economy& /ore information is e5pected after a ma'or 2ommunist Party meetin: this fall& 9he fact that 2hina8s population is a:in: J and its labor force :radually shrin4in: J adds to the pressure for a structural overhaul& 9he authorities say they aim to raise domestic consumption and productivity, reduce 2hina8s reliance on e5ports and construction investment, and rein in financial ris4s fla::ed in the C&/&F& report& 1ut many entrenched interest :roups, includin: state(o%ned enterprises, public ban4s and midlevel officials %ho run hu:e sections of the economy, are more comfortable %ith the status Muo& Cn recent %ee4s, 2hina8s :overnment has made it increasin:ly clear that it is prepared to tolerate slo%er :ro%th and that it %ill not repeat the a::ressive stimulus that follo%ed the :lobal financial crisis& Prime /inister Ki >eMian: reiterated that messa:e in comments reported by the official Yinhua ne%s a:ency on 7ednesday& Althou:h he ac4no%led:ed that the economy faced ris4s and challen:es, /r& Ki said it remained :enerally stable& 7hile the authorities must %or4 to 4eep economic :ro%th %ithin a reasonable ran:e, they %ill aim to deploy tar:eted policies and not chan:e the direction of policies based only on temporary chan:es in economic barometers, he said, accordin: to Yinhua& Cn a note referrin: to /r& Ki8s comments, ,u ;on:bin, chief 2hina economist at ;+12 in ;on: >on:, %rote, 1ei'in: is tryin: to boost public confidence and emphasi)e the seriousness of its intention by reiteratin: the need to stabili)e :ro%th&

Nuclear War 15/221

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222A, Bru)man
Bru)man "ron) emp&r&cs an% "ron) mo%el of t(&n#&n) /ee3 7/23 1&+& in economics, %riter of B boo4s on 2hinese =ro%th and contributor at Forbes (Paul >ru:man Cs
As 7ron: About 2hina As ;e 7as About +in:apore, E$2"$!2, Forbes, http#$$%%%&forbes&com$sites$:reatspeculations$2 !"$ E$2"$%hy(paul( 4ru:man(is(%ron:(about(china$*$$7K 0aysayers on 2hina are %ron:, C thin4& Americans and American investors should pay close attention to 2hina and learn& 2ontinued 2hinese :ro%th means that the supercycle in commodities, prematurely declared dead by so many, %ill continue& 1y

the end of 2 !", C e5pect the

lon:(term commodities uptrend to reassert itself & Cf America does not learn from 2hina, in fact, commodities may be investors8 only
potential source of outsi)ed :ains& As C %rote in my boo4 -ed Alert, most disbelief concernin: 2hina8s :ro%th prospects stems from differences bet%een Gastern and 7estern mindsets& C cite many clinical psycholo:ical studies to distin:uish Gast from 7est& 9he findin:s do not distin:uish C&,& but rather differences in cultural %orldvie%s& 9he 7est focuses on the center of action& Our eyes naturally :ravitate to%ard the center of a photo:raph or picture& Cn the Gast, the periphery holds much more si:nificance& 9his distinction, an action oriented approach as opposed to a broad perspective, e5plains a lot&

9he 7est tends to as4, 7hat have you done for me lately, or to advise that people stri4e %hile the iron is hot& Gastern sa:es typically caution a:ainst action until all potential conseMuences may be fully appreciated& 9he entire messa:e of one old 2hinese parable, for e5ample, rou:hly translates as %ait and see& 2hina8s latest naysayer, 0obel economist and 0e% Por4 9imes columnist Paul >ru:man, recently ar:ued that 2hina is headed for a terrible fall& ;e sees 2hina as vastly overbuilt, and facin: a massive credit crisis& /oreover, he notes, 2hina can no lon:er count on cheap labor to continue to drive :ro%th at the rapid levels seen historically& >ru:man thin4s 2hina8s :ro%th en:ines have run out :as and its 'et plane %ill e5perience a crash& ;is only Muestion is ho% bad the crash %ill be& 1ac4 in !??@, >ru:man similarly assessed the +in:apore economy& N+in:apore is an economic t%in of the :ro%th of +talin8s +oviet 3nion, he %rote in Forei:n Affairs (0ovember$6ecember, 9he /yth of Asia8s /iracle*& Cn !??@, remember, the +oviet 3nion shone chiefly as a massively failed economic e5periment& >ru:man simultaneously offered duplicate reasonin: on the other fast :ro%in: Asian economies, 9ai%an, ;on: >on: and +outh >orea & 9he >ru:man ar:ument, nearly a :eneration a:o, on the Asian 9i:ers closely parallels his current reasonin: on 2hina& 9hey had e5pended or %ere on the ver:e of consumin: their entire available capital and labor resources, he contended, and lac4ed any si:ns of future productivity improvement & ;e %rote that they had already achieved most of their potential, and for +in:apore, he %ondered only ho% fast it %ould fall& Of course, thin:s did not %or4 out that %ay & +in:apore and the other Asian nations have since :ro%n voluminously & 1y virtually every measure of %ell(bein:, in fact, from life e5pectancy to per capita =6P, +in:apore no% surpasses America& >ru:man %as not alone in dismissin: future Gast Asian economic potential, but %as certainly one of the bri:htest& ;e mista4enly assumed that 7estern analysis %ould correctly assess Gastern settin:s& +in:apore in !??@, li4e 2hina today, had e5perienced an e5traordinary run of rapid :ro%th& Cts economy had increased more than seven fold in under 2D years, fired by ever :reater labor and capital pools& 7hat >ru:man and many others missed %as the foundation for much hi:her productivity, and indeed +in:apore has since proven second to none in levera:in: the advanta:es of modern technolo:y& 2hina today, li4e%ise, houses many productivity drivers& 3rbani)ation promises their populace :reater education& Ct should also stron:ly drive up productivity and efficiency, as %ill the vast
ma'ority of 2hinese infrastructure spendin:, includin: that in so(called :host cities, a topic C discussed in a prior Forbes blo:& ;ere rests the bedroc4 for future :ro%th in 2hinese efficiency and productivity& +ure, 2hina has invested in some boondo::les, but far fe%er than the

press %ould have us believe& America can learn from 2hina8s infrastructure spendin:, especially that on its hi:h speed trains, hi:h%ays, and %ater%ays& 9ransportation and other infrastructure are critical to constructin: a 2!st century ener:y platform& 2hina e5cels in virtually every type of rene%able ener:y and smart(:rid spendin:& Cts developin: smart :rid enables simultaneous use of different ener:y sources& Cn other %ords, 2hina has set the sta:e to vastly increase its internal ener:y productivity& As C stated in another previous blo:, frac4in: amounts to a terribly inefficient ener:y source& -ene%able sources, by contrast, especially those connected to a smart :rid, loo4 far more efficient& Cf %e don8t %ant 2hina to race ahead of us in ! or !D years, %e should emulate them, no%&

Nuclear War 1*/221

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Cu3a -con

Cu3a )ro"&n) f&rst (alf pro+es E&n(au 7/1 (2uba ma4in: economic pro:ress# president, E$!$!", http#$$ne%s&5inhuanet&com$en:lish$business$2
E$ 2$cL!"2D "?E?&htm*$$7K 2uban President -aul 2astro has

!"(

praised his countryAs economic pro:ress as <noticeable,< the official daily =ranma reported

/onday& <7e are pro:ressin: at a faster rate than estimated by those %ho had critici)ed our supposed slo% pace and %ho didnAt 4no% the difficulties %e face,< the president %as Muoted as sayin: at a recent meetin: %ith the 2ouncil of /inisters revie%in: the 2 !2 bud:et and other economic issues& Gconomy and Plannin: /inister Abdel P)Muierdo said it %as officially estimated that 2ubaAs :ross domestic product (=6P* %ill

:ro% 2&" percent in the first half this year, %ith most economic sectors reportin: an uptic4, especially in 2uban e5ports :re% more than D percent year on year from 2 !2 and !FB million 3&+& dollars less %ere spent on food imports than4s to lo%er prices of several products, P)Muierdo said& 9he state bud:et closed the first half of the year %ith a sli:ht surplus , %hile revenue :ro%th e5ceeded @ percent mainly due to ta5es, 2uban Finance and Prices /inister Kina Pedra)a -odri:ue) added 2astro said that <%e demand everyone
trade, transportation, communication and manufacturin:, the daily said& 6urin: the first half of this year, pay his or her ta5esR %e cannot allo% this issue to be born %ith problems& 7e have to educate and teach schoolchildren the importance of ta5es in the redistribution of %ealth&<

-conom' %o&n) "ell ne" pol&c&es "&ll susta&n )ro"t( Ca%ena A)ramonte 7/1 2uban -adio +tation Muotin: :overnment officials (-aul 2astro says Gconomic
9ransformations Advance %ith 0oticeable -esults, E$!$!", http#$$%%%&cadena:ramonte&cu$en:lish$inde5&php$sho%$articles$!@B #raul(castro(says( economic(transformations(advance(%ith(noticeable(results*$$7K 7e 4eep advancin: %ith noticeable results, as %e move faster than as is bein: ima:ined by those %ho critici)e our alle:ed slo% pace and i:nore the difficulties %e are facin:, said President -aul 2astro durin: a meetin: of the 2uban 2ouncil of /inisters held June 2B to analy)e the country8s economic performance in the first half of the year& 6urin: the meetin:, Gconomy and Plannin: minister Adel P)Muierdo said that the =ross 6omestic Product :re% 2&" percent, t%o tenths hi:her than same period last year, despite e5ternal factors, the impact by

hurricane +andy and the inefficiencies of the country8s economic performance& 9he economy is e5pected to :ro% bet%een 2&D and " percent this year, belo% the scheduled "&F percent& 9he minister said that e5ports %ill :ro% by over D percent if compared to the first half of 2 !2, and re:ardin: food imports, he said that the country has saved !FB million dollars, follo%in: favorin: prices of different productsR
ho%ever, there are still food production problems that led to the imports calculated at an additional @F million dollars& Public transportation has faced a lac4 of spare parts and deterioration of eMuipment, %hile investment and construction pro:rams :ro% by !F&F percent althou:h the plans fell short by ? percent& Cn this re:ards, President -aul 2astro insisted in the need for orderly construction pro'ects& ;e said it is not a matter of prohibitions, but of implementin: pro'ects %here appropriate conditions e5ist& ;e e5emplified %ith ille:al settlements raised in outs4irt city areas, %hich do not count on the basic sanitation conditions, a fact that has led to the outbrea4 of diseases& Finance and Price minister Kina Pedra)a said that the scheduled income fi:ures %ere met %ith an additional @ percent, favored by the ta5 system, despite fiscal irre:ularities that involved several million pesos that %ere not collected& -aul 2astro said that this is a priority issue, because every person must pay his or her ta5es& 7e need to educate, teach about the importance of ta5es for the redistribution of the %ealth, he pointed out& 9he 2ouncil of /inisters a:reed to submit the reports by the economy and the finance ministers to the upcomin: session of the 0ational Parliament& Other aspects dealt %ith durin: the

meetin: included a proposal to improve the performance of the 6omestic 9rade /inistry, and urban passen:er transportation, particularly in ;avana& /arino /urillo Jor:e, %ho heads the Permanent 2ommission for the Cmplementation and 6evelopment of
the social and economic :uidelines adopted by the 2ommunist Party said that basic bus and railroad transportation %ill 4eep operatin: under the state system, %ith a ne% payment scheme for %or4ers and directives, alon: %ith ne% or:ani)ational mechanisms& /urillo also referred to the

settin: up of ne% cooperatives in the fields of services, small industries, construction, food processin: and others& As to the implementation of the :uidelines, the official said that a more comple5 and difficult sta:e of the process in no% under%ay, %hich
demands ri:or as to the control of each measure to be adopted& Cn his report, /urillo noted that the process is no% considerin: the first version of a proposal on the conceptuali)ation of the economic model, %ith the evaluation of macro(economic policies that include %holesale and retail prices, and studies addressin: the double currency still prevailin: in 2uba& ;e also referred to the policy of subsidies in the benefit of the population, the ta5 system and the continuation of the restructurin: of central administration bodies& ;e added that over @ thousand 2ubans have already 'oined self employment in the county, and that a draft labor code %ill soon be submitted to the %or4ers8 debates to later be presented at the 0ational Parliament& +ome policies already approved or in process, include the restructurin: of scientific centers and the artistic education net%or4R the update

of the national pro:ram of natural and traditional medications , the improvement of the a:ricultural production sector and the commerciali)ation of industrial by(products and animal feedR the increase of recyclin: efforts, the national %ater policy, amon: others& ;e also referred to the sale of liMuefied :as to the population, so far under ration cards, %hich be:an in January on the Csle of Pouth municipality and %ill be e5tended to ;avana and +antia:o de 2uba cities this month& Finally, /urillo said that the first half of the year has been mar4ed by intense %or4 in the implementation of the ne% policies %hile some
necessary ad'ustments and corrections has been made bearin: in mind practical results of the process&(A20*

Nuclear War 17/221 Cu3a7s econom' sta)nat&n) "a' s(ort of econom&c )oals M&am& Heral% 7/1 (-eport says 2uban economic :ro%th hasn8t Muic4ened despite reforms, E$!$!",

MICHIGAN 7WS 2013

http#$$%%%&miamiherald&com$2 !"$ E$ !$"@B F2D$report(says(cuban(economy(is&html*$$7K 2uba said /onday its economy %ill :ro% by no more than " percent this year , about the same as in 2 !2 but far short

of the "&F percent :oal and another indication that ruler -a_l 2astro8s reforms are :eneratin: little ne% economic activity& 2astro,
nevertheless, seemed pleased %ith the reports on his reforms submitted Friday to a meetin: of the 2ouncil of /inisters and detailed in a story /onday in =ranma, the official ne%spaper of the rulin: 2ommunist Party& 7e continue advancin: and the results can be seen& 7e are movin: at a faster pace than can be ima:ined by those %ho critici)e our supposed slo% pace and i:nore the difficulties that %e face, he %as Muoted as sayin: at the meetin:& +ince succeedin: older brother Fidel in 2 B, 2astro has allo%ed more private enterprise and cut state payrolls and subsidies& 1ut many economists

have dismissed his reforms as too slo% and too %ea4 to rescue 2uba8s +oviet(styled economy& /inister of the Gconomy
and plannin: Adel P)Muierdo told the 2abinet meetin: that he e5pects =ross 6omestic Product %ill :ro% by bet%een 2&D and " percent, far short of the "&F percent :oal& 9he country8s =6P :re% by " percent last year& =6P :ro%th for the first half of this year %as estimated at 2&" percent, compared to 2&! percent for the same period last year, he added& 2uba uses a uniMue %ay of countin: =6P that e5a::erates the number %hen compared to other countries& P)Muierdo blamed the shortcomin:s on a broad ran:e of factors that %ent from last year8s ;urricane +andy J it caused an estimated [2 billion in dama:es J to %hat =ranma called the deficiencies that are part and parcel of the 2uban economy& =ranma and P)Muierdo tic4ed off a list

of reasons for the economic sta:nation, from delays in pro'ects to bro4en contracts and the lo% productivity and shorta:e of the labor force as %ell as the economic situation in Katin America and the rest of the %orld& +pendin: on social services remained stable for the first semester of this year, P)Muierdo declared, and many parts of the economy :re% at a 2&? percent clip or better& 1ut the su:ar harvest fell !?2, tons short of :oal and bean production fell F, tons short& =overnment spendin: on construction and other capital pro'ects %as !F&F percent hi:her than in the first semester last year but ? percent short of :oal because of delays and others issues, the minister said& G5ports :re% by D percent, =ranma reported, and lo%er prices on imported food meant savin:s of [!FB million& 1ut shortcomin:s in 2uban farmin: forced the :overnment to import an unplanned [@F million %orth of food& 2uba must import more than E percent of the food items it consumes, at a cost of more than [!&D billion a year& 3nderlinin: 2uba8s economic sta:nation, Qice President /arino /urillo, in char:e of implementin: the 2astro reforms, told the 2abinet that the
:overnment %ill promote the use of bicycles to cover :aps in public transportation, accordin: to =ranma& 7e %ill evaluate the sale at cost of parts for their maintenance, /urillo %as Muoted as sayin: in the len:thy =ranma report summin: up the 2abinet meetin:& 9he :overnment sold 2ubans more than ! million bicycles, most of them made in 2hina, after the +oviet 3nion collapsed in the early !?? s and halted it massive cash and oil subsidies to the communist(ruled island& 1ut by !??F about one(third of ;avana residents had stopped usin: their bi4es because of the lac4 of spare parts, the bad state of 2uba8s streets and lac4 of ni:ht li:hts, accordin: to a report in 2 !! by the A:ence France Press ne%s a:ency& 9he AFP report noted that ;avana authorities had already decided to cut the price of spare parts by " percent, :uarantee the %or4 of ! D repair shops and !! air pumpin: stations and try to create about ! miles of bi4e lanes& /urillo also listed a series of problems %ith the public transportation system J bus passen:ers not payin: their fares and bus company employees stealin: the money, and a blac4 mar4et for fuel and spare parts mostly stolen from state enterprises& 9he :overnment plans to use plastic cards to control fuel purchases by public transport employees J the principal source of blac4 mar4et fuel J crac4 do%n on the theft and offer hi:her salaries to sector %or4ers, he said, %ithout raisin: prices&

Cu3a7s econom' sta)nat&n) no" an' ne"s of reform or ne" &n+estment &s :ust propa)an%a A&nanc&al ,&mes 7/15 (2uba pushes ahead on reforms but insists island not for sale, E$!D$!", http#$$%%%&ft&com$intl$cms$s$ $?EebBBDB(
ed2e(!!e2(adFe( !@@feabdc &htmlOa5))2Z)51:AJ/*$$7K 2uba8s efforts to build a more mar4et(driven economy are movin: from liftin: prohibitions on personal property, travel and minor economic activity to reform of lar:er state companies& 1ut one of the most po%erful men in the land had bad ne%s last %ee4 for those %ho mi:ht harbour hope of o%nin: a piece of the 2aribbean island& Kife has demonstrated that the state cannot occupy itself %ith the entire economy, that it must cede space to other forms of administration, /arino /urillo, the man appointed to head President -a_l 2astro8s reform efforts, told 'ournalists visitin: the country last %ee4& 1ut /r /urillo, a member of the politburo and vice(president of the 2ouncil of /inisters, emphasised that it %as a transfer of administration and not a property of the people reform& +ince -a_l 2astro too4 over from his ailin: brother Fidel 2astro in 2 B, and first be:an to institute austerity measures and reforms, the country8s current account has run a surplus, but economic

:ro%th has sta:nated at 'ust over 2 per cent

annually& 9he 2uban 2ommunist Party and :overnment adopted a more than "

point plan in 2 !! to update the country8s economic and social

model, but the party made clear the chan:es %ere to ta4e place %ithin the limits of socialism, /r /urillo said& As4ed

repeatedly about forei:n investment opportunities, the officials offered nothin: ne% at all, repeatin: stoc4 lines about investment bein: complementary to their development schemes and that e5istin: re:ulations %ere fle5ible and adeMuate& /r /urillo said the :overnment %as developin: a list of offers that should be ready by 2 !@ and %ere planned to stimulate investment& 9he implication %as that dra%n(out ne:otiations over control of 'oint ventures, duration of the a:reements, ta5 brea4s and labour relations are unli4ely to be resolved soon & 9he possible e5ception is a special economic )one in %estern 2uba e5pected to open ne5t year and %hich is a%aitin: publication of its rules and re:ulations& 0one of the !? companies mana:in: and temporarily in 'oint ventures in 2uba o%n any property outri:ht, nor do they have the ri:ht to sell shares e5cept %ith the authorisation of their partner, the state& /r /urillo said a:riculture represented more or less %hat authorities
envision for minor and secondary sectors of the economy& 9he country has leased fallo% state land to nearly 2 , %ould(be farmers in recent years, loosened the re:ulation of co(operatives that %ere already leasin: state land and freed up all a:ricultural actors to sell more of their produce (currently @E per cent* on the open mar4et, bypassin: the state8s %holesale and retail outlets&

Cu3a7s res&l&ent a3&l&t' to "eat(er cr&ses an% Ma%uro7s support

Nuclear War MICHIGAN 7WS 2013 1?/221 A! 12 (2have)As cancer a concern to 2ubaR dependent on trade, oil, thou:h more insulated than in past, !2$2F$!2,
http#$$%%%&fo5ne%s&com$%orld$2 !2$!2$2F$chave)(cancer(concern(to(cuba(dependent(on(trade(oil(thou:h(more(insulated(than$*$$7K

;avana learned important lessons about overdependence %hen the !??! collapse of the +oviet 3nion thre% the country into a deep crisis& 9ryin: to avoid the conseMuences of a similar cut, the 2uban :overnment has been diversifyin: its portfolio of economic partners in recent years , loo4in: to Asia, Gurope and other Katin American nations, and is only about half as dependent on 2aracas as it %as on the former +oviet 3nion & 2uba is also %or4in: to stimulate its economy bac4 home by allo%in: more private(sector activity, :ivin: a le: up to independent and cooperative farmin:, and decentrali)in: its su:ar
industry& A stron:er 2uban economy %ould in theory have more hard currency to pay for ener:y and other imports& Also :ettin: off the :round is an e5periment %ith independent nonfarm collectives that should be more efficient than state(run companies& And ne5t year, another pilot pro:ram is planned for decentrali)ed state enterprises that %ill en'oy near(autonomy and be allo%ed to control most of their income& <9his could have :ood results,< said a 2uban economist %ho spo4e on condition of anonymity because he %asnAt authori)ed to tal4 to the forei:n media& 2uba <is also thin4in:

of boostin: forei:n investment in areas of the national economy, includin: in restricted areas li4e the su:ar industry&< One of the countryAs top :oals has been to ma4e the islandAs stru::lin: economy less dependent on a sin:le benefactor& 3nder the
leadership of 2have), %ho re:ularly calls former 2uban President Fidel 2astro his ideolo:ical father and has follo%ed parts of the 2ommunist leaderAs :overnance playboo4, Qene)uela has sent billions of dollars a year to 2uba throu:h trade and petro(aid& 1ilateral trade stood at a little over [B billion last year, much of it in 2uban imports of oil and derivatives& Cn return, ;avana primarily provides Qene)uela %ith technical support from 2uban teachers, scientists and other professionals, plus bri:ades of health care %or4ers& Analysts say those services are overvalued by outside standards, apparently costin: as much as [2 , per year per doctor& G5perts pe: the total Qene)uelan subsidy to 2uba at around [2 billion to [@ billion a year& 7hile business %ith Qene)uela ma4es up @ percent of all 2uban trade, itAs still a far cry from the days %hen the 2ommunist Gastern 1loc accounted for an estimated B percent& <A (loss of* [2 billion to [@ billion %ould definitely pinch& 1ut it is not the same relative %ei:ht as the

sudden complete %ithdra%al of the +oviet subsidies in the early A? s ,< said -ichard G& Feinber:, a professor of international political economy at the 3niversity of 2alifornia, +an 6ie:o& < 2ubaAs not :oin: to :o bac4 to the days of bicycles& 2ould it thro% the 2uban economy into recessionH Pes&< 9hat 4ind of resilience %ould result lar:ely from 2ubaAs successes in courtin: forei:n investors for 'oint ventures& Kast month, authorities announced a deal %ith a subsidiary of 1ra)ilAs Odebrecht to mana:e a su:ar refinery, a rare step in an industry that has lon: been lar:ely off limits to forei:n involvement& 2hina has invested in land(based
oil pro'ects, and alon: %ith 2anada is a 4ey player in 2ubaAs important nic4el industry& +pain has ventures in tourist hotels and tobacco, %hile French company Pernod -icard helps e5port 2uban liMuors& And since 2 ?, 1ra)il has been a partner in a massive pro'ect to moderni)e and e5pand the port at /ariel, %est of the capital& 9rade %ith 2hina alone %as [!&? billion and risin: in 2 ! , and -aul 2astro paid a visit to 2hinese and Qietnamese leaders earlier this year to help cement Asian relationships& 1ut %hile ;avana says it %ants to boost forei:n investment, obstacles remain& 9he approval process for investment pro'ects can be lon: and cumbersome, and pilfera:e, disincentives to productivity and :overnment intervention can cut into efficiencies& Forei:n companies also pay a s4y(hi:h payroll ta5& Feinber:, %ho %rote a report on forei:n investment in 2uba published this month by the 3&+& thin4 tan4 the 1roo4in:s Cnstitution, said that %hile a number of forei:n companies are successfully doin: business %ith the island, others have run into problems, sendin: a chilly messa:e to %ould(be investors& Cn particular he noted the recent cases of a :overnment ta4eover of a food company run by a 2hilean businessman accused of corruption, and contentious rene:otiations of a contract %ith 6utch(1ritish personal and home care products :iant 3nilever amid shiftin: :overnment demands& <9he 2uban :overnment has to decide that it %ants forei:n investment unambi:uously& C thin4 no% there seem to be divisions amon: the leadership,< Feinber: said& <+ome are afraid that forei:n investment compromises soverei:nty, creates centers of po%er independent of the leadership or is e5ploitative&< ;e estimated 2uba has left on the table about [2 billion in missed investment over the past decade by not follo%in: practices typical of other developin: nations& Cnstead, 2uba received ["&D billion in forei:n investment in that period& G5perts say a %orst(case scenario for 2have) %ouldnAt automatically translate into the oil spi:ot shuttin: off overni:ht& Cf 2have)As hand(pic4ed

successor, Qice President /aduro, %ere to ta4e office, he %ould li4ely see4 to continue the special relationship &
Opposition leader ;enriMue 2apriles has said he %ants to end the oil(for(services barter arran:ements, but could find that easier said than done should he %in& 9he t%o countries are intert%ined in do)ens of 'oint accords, and poor Qene)uelans %ho benefit from free care by 2uban doctors %ould be loath to see that disappear& <Pou canAt flip the s%itch on a relationship li4e this,< said /elissa Koc4hart Fortner, a 2uba analyst at the Pacific 2ouncil on Cnternational Policy, a Kos An:eles(based institute that focuses on :lobal affairs& <Ct %ould be terrible politics for him& &&& +%itchin: that off

%ould really endan:er his support far too much for that to be really a feasible option&< For 2uba, 2have)As latest health
scare capped off a year of disappointments in the islandAs attempt to %ean itself from Qene)uelan ener:y& 9hree deep(%ater e5ploratory oil %ells drilled off the %est coast failed to yield a stri4e, and last month the only oil ri: in the %orld capable of drillin: there %ithout violatin: 3&+& sanctions sailed a%ay %ith no return in si:ht& Pet time and a:ain ;avana has sho%n that itAs nothin: if not resilient, %eatherin: everythin: from 3&+&( bac4ed invasion and assassination plots in the !?F s to the austere <+pecial Period< in the early !?? s, %hen the +oviet collapse sent 2ubaAs =6P plummetin: "" percent over four years& 7hen hurricanes dama:ed the countryAs a:riculture sector and the :lobal financial crisis sMuee)ed tourism four years a:o, 2uba ti:htened its belt, slashed imports and survived&

Cu3a res&l&ent e+en "&t( current pro3lems Ae&n3er) 11 ( professor of international political economy at the 3niversity of 2alifornia, +an 6ie:o& +enior Fello% at 1roo4in:s (-eachin: Out# 2uba8s 0e% Gconomy and the Cnternational -esponse, 0ovember 2 !!, 1roo4in:s Cnstitute,
http#$$%%%&broo4in:s&edu$research$papers$2 !!$!!$!B(cuba(feinber:*$$7K

+ince the collapse of its former patron, the +oviet 3nion, a resilient 2uba has dramatically diversified its international economic relations& Cnitially, 2uba reached out to Gurope, 2anada, and a %idenin: array of friendly states in Katin America& Over the last decade, 2uba has reached out to for:e economic partnerships %ith ma'or emer:in: mar4et economies Jnotably 2hina, 1ra)il, and Qene)uela& +panish firms mana:e many of the e5pandin: hotel chains in 2uba that cater to 2&D million international tourists each year& A 2anadian company 'ointly o%ns minin: operations that ship hi:h(priced nic4el to 2anada and 2hina& Cn the ne5t fe% years, 2hina

Nuclear War MICHIGAN 7WS 2013 14/221 is poised to spend billions of dollars buildin: a lar:e petrochemical comple5 at 2ienfue:os& A 1ra)ilian firm %ill moderni)e the /ariel Port so that it can accommodate very lar:e container ships transitin: the ne%ly %idened Panama 2anal& Petroleum companies from ten or more countries have lined up to e5plore for deepsea oil in 2uban %aters in the =ulf of /e5ico& 6espite these advances, the 2uban economy remains in the doldrums (as described in +ection !*& 9he main constraint slo%in: the 2uban economy is not 3&+& sanctions (even as they have hit hard*& -ather, it is 2uba8s o%n outdated economic model, inherited from the +oviet 3nion, of central plannin:& 2uba8s many commercial partners %ould li4e to invest more in 2uba and %ould prefer to purchase more 2uban e5ports to correct the imbalances in their bilateral trade accounts, but are frustrated by 2uba8s scant economic offerin:s&

Nuclear War 20/221

MICHIGAN 7WS 2013

Dutc( D&sease
-conom' conf&%ence at recor% (&)( $ro"n */21( 2ommunication +pecialist at =allup 2onsultant at Albemarle 2ounty Office of Pro:ram Accountability Public Policy
and Advocacy Cntern at Arthritis Foundation +pecial Gvents Cntern at Arthritis Foundation (Alyssa, 3&+& Gconomic 2onfiderence -eaches Five(Pear 7ee4ly ;i:h, =AKK3P Gconomy, /ay 2! st, 2 !", http#$$%%%&:allup&com$poll$!F2F?B$economic(confidence(reaches(five(year(%ee4ly(hi:h&asp5*$$+,7A+;C0=9O0, 6&2& (( Americans %ere more confident in the economy last %ee4 than in any %ee4 since =allup be:an trac4in: economic confidence daily in 2 B& 9he =allup Gconomic 2onfidence Cnde5 rose to (D last %ee4 from (!! the prior %ee4& 9he current score e5ceeds the previous %ee4ly hi:h of (B reached t%o %ee4s a:o and in early February& =allup Gconomic 2onfidence Cnde5 (( 7ee4ly Avera:es, 2 B(2 !"

AmericansA confidence in the economy has been stron:er this year than in recent years as 3&+& stoc4 prices hit record hi:hs and unemployment in April declined to its lo%est level since 6ecember 2 B& Additionally, home prices have been hi:her and :as prices have :enerally been lo%er than they %ere last year, %hich li4ely boosted economic confidence& 9he =allup Gconomic 2onfidence Cnde5 %as (22 in the first %ee4 of the year as 2on:ress and the president %ee4s since early /arch& =allupAs Gconomic 2onfidence Cnde5 has a theoretical minimum of (!

reached a deal to resolve the fiscal cliff, and it steadily improved to (B in the %ee4 endin: Feb& "& 9he Cnde5 fell sharply in the first %ee4 of /arch to (22 as leaders in 7ashin:ton failed to reach an a:reement to avoid bud:et seMuestration cuts, but has :enerally trended up%ard in most and a theoretical ma5imum of `! & 9he inde5 is based on AmericansA ratin:s of current economic conditions in the 3nited +tates as %ell as their assessments of %hether the economy is :ettin: better or %orse& 9he inde5 has never been positive since =allup be:an 6aily trac4in: of economic confidence in January 2 B& =allup as4ed the same Muestions in periodic surveys prior to 2 B, thou:h methodolo:ical differences bet%een the trac4in: and nontrac4in: surveys ma4e precise comparisons of the results from each difficult& 0evertheless, in a broad sense, Americans havenAt been on balance positive to%ard the economy since late 2 F$early 2 E& AmericansA 0et Gconomic Outloo4 Positive for First 9ime +ince =allup 6aily 9rac4in: 1e:an AmericansA %ee4ly perceptions of the

economyAs direction are more positive than ne:ative for the first time since =allup be:an trac4in: economic confidence daily& Forty(nine percent of Americans no% say the economy is :ettin: better and @EI say it is :ettin: %orse, for a net economic
outloo4 ratin: of 2& 9he current net ratin: is up from (F the prior %ee4 and the previous %ee4ly hi:h of (! durin: the %ee4 endin: 0ov& @, 2 !2&

GD! m&slea%&n)2 econom' actuall' )ro"&n) C(an%ra 7/2*( (+hobhana, Job =ains +i:nal 3&+& 6oin: 1etter 9han =6P +ho%s# Gconomy, 1loomber:, July 2Fth, 2 !", http#$$%%%&bloomber:&com$ne%s$2 !"( E(2F$'ob(:ains(si:nal(u(s(doin:(better(than(:dp( sho%s(economy(!(&html*$$+,Jud:in: by the fi:ures for :ro%th, the 3&+& economy is in the doldrums& Kabor(mar4et data tell a more positive story& Payrolls climbed by 2 2, a month on avera:e from January throu:h June, up from !B , in the second half of 2 !2, accordin: to the Kabor 6epartment& +uch :ains are typically lin4ed %ith :ross domestic product :ro%in: close to " percent, about double %hat :overnment data may sho% ne5t %ee4, say economists at 3ni2redit =roup and

6eutsche 1an4 +ecurities Cnc& 9he employment numbers are closer to the true picture, said ;arm 1andhol), chief 3&+& economist at 3ni2redit in 0e% Por4 and the top payroll forecaster in the past t%o years, accordin: to data compiled by 1loomber:& C8m confident =6P :ro%th %ill pic4 up in the second half and even more in 2 !@& 9he %ei:ht of the evidence also tips the balance to%ard a more favorable outcome as federal ta5 receipts rise at the fastest pace in si5 years, measures of consumer confidence reach the hi:hest levels since at least 2 B, and sales of autos

and homes and housin: rebound& 9hat helps e5plain %hy companies from =eneral Glectric 2o& (=G* to 9e5as Cndustries Cnc& (9YC* plan to

4eep investin: and hirin:& After ad'ustin: for the increase in rates that too4 effect this year, employee income(ta5 %ithholdin:s %ere up about F percent in June compared %ith a year earlier, the best sho%in: for that month since 2 E, accordin: to calculations based on 9reasury data by Joseph KaQor:na, the 0e% Por4(based chief 3&+& economist at 6eutsche 1an4& /ore receipts point to :ains in employment, risin: %a:es or a

combination of both& >S econom' sta)nant Her3st 7/26(strate:ist for 1erlin-osen (/oira, ! reasons the 3+ economy is stuc4, 9he =uardian, July 2@ th, 2 !",
http#$$%%%&:uardian&co&u4$commentisfree$2 !"$'ul$2@$! (reason(us(economy(stuc4*$$+,-

/ore than five years after the :reat recession hit, the 3+ economy is still sputterin:& 9he :overnment revised =6P :ro%th fi:ures do%n last month to a mea:er !&BI for the first Muar ter of this year& Ct doesnAt ta4e a Ph6 in economics to understand %hy# %e have a demand problem& And %e have a demand problem because the vast ma'ority of consumers a4a %or4ers are not earnin: enou:h to pay for healthcare, education and retirement, let alone all the other stuff stores and service providers have to sell& 9he reality is that %eAre hollo%in: out the middle class by %ipin: out %ell( paid 'obs %ith benefits and replacin: them %ith lo%(%a:e ones that often lac4 them& 9hatAs dama:in: not only to people %ho are livin: on smaller paychec4s or %ho are indeed unemployed but also to the health and viability of the overall economy& 0o matter %hat 0e% Por4 9imes columnist 9homas Friedman and his follo%ers say, %e are not livin: in a <sharin: economy<& 7e are livin: in a )ero(sum economy in %hich a handful of investors and o%ners %in at everyone elseAs e5pense& 1ut ultimately, it %ill catch up %ith investors, too& 9he 3+ economy is en:a:ed in a vicious cycle in %hich lo%(%a:e 'obs and under(employment stimulate
little demand, :ivin: companies little reason to hire %or4ers& 7ould(be %or4ers then :et discoura:ed and drop out of the %or4force& 9hey lac4 money to buy thin:s, so consumer spendin: sa:s and companies donAt hire or offer raises to %or4ers they 4no% they can 4eep& -epeat&

Nuclear War MICHIGAN 7WS 2013 21/221 -conom' %oome% for a %eca%e $a#er 7/5( co directior of the 2entre for Gconomic and Policy -esearch (6ean, 3pbeat June 'obs report still leaves 3+
economy in a deep hole, 9he =uardian, July Dth, 2 !", http#$$%%%&:uardian&co&u4$commentisfree$2 !"$'ul$ D$'une('obs(report(us( economy*$$+,First,

it is important to remember the si)e of the hole the economy is in& 7e are do%n rou:hly B&D million 'obs from our trend :ro%th path& 7e also need close to ! , 'obs a month to 4eep pace %ith the underlyin: :ro%th rate of the labor mar4et& 9his means that even %ith the relatively :ood :ro%th of the last fe% months, %e %ere only closin: the :ap at the rate of ?F, a month& At this pace, it %ill ta4e up more than seven years to fill the 'obs :ap& Ct is easy to miss the si)e of the 'obs :ap since the current E&FI
unemployment rate doesnAt seem that hi:h& ;o%ever, the main reason that the unemployment rate has fallen from its pea4 of ! I in the fall of 2 ? is that millions of people have dropped out of the labor force and stopped loo4in: for 'obs& 9hese people are no lon:er counted as bein: unemployed& Cf %e

loo4 at the employment to population ratio the percenta:e of people %ho have 'obs this has risen 'ust &D percenta:e points from the lo%(point of the do%nturn & Ct is still do%n by more than @& percenta:e points from its pre(recession
level, and by F& full percenta:e points from the pea4 hit in the boom of 2 & After severe do%nturns in the !?E s and !?B s, %e had months in %hich the economy created over @ , 'obs& And this %as in a labor mar4et that %as more than one(third smaller& 9hat is the sort of 'ob :ro%th that %e should be seein: after a recession li4e the one %e sa% in 2 B(2 ?& 3nfortunately, such :ro%th is no%here in si:ht& Of course, the %ea4ness of the 'ob mar4et is not a surprise& 9he economy has been :ro%in: at less than a 2I annual rate for the last three years& Cn this

conte5t, it is surprisin: that %e are seein: 'ob :ro%th of even !

, a month& /ost analysts put the economyAs trend rate of :ro%th in the ran:e of 2&2(2&DI& 9his means that the economy has to :ro% at this pace 'ust to 4eep the unemployment rate from risin:& 9he reason that %e have been able to able to achieve above(trend :ro%th in employment in an economy :ro%in: much slo%er than its trend path is that the rate of productivity :ro%th has fallen throu:h the floor& Productivity :ro%th has avera:ed less than !I in the last three years, as opposed to 2&DI in the decade precedin: the do%nturn& 9his :ets to the type of 'obs that have been created in the upturn& Over the last three months, three sectors restaurants, retail trade, and temporary help have accounted for more than half of the 'obs created& 9hese sectors offer the lo%est(payin: 'obs, %ith fe% benefits and little 'ob security& 9he fact that these sectors are :ro%in: rapidly spea4s to the state of the 'ob mar4et& 9hese sectors al%ays :enerate lots of 'obs, but in a :ood economy, no one %ill ta4e them& 7or4ers ta4e these 'obs %hen there are no better alternatives available& 9he poor Muality of 'obs sho%s up in the %a:e data& 9he most recent data did sho% an uptic4 in the avera:e hourly %a:e, %hich has been risin: at a nominal rate of 2&!I over the last three months& 9his is some%hat better than the rate of inflation, %hich is around !&DI& 1ut a closer inspection of the data sho%s that the uptic4 %as all amon: supervisory %or4ers, %ho sa% nominal a:e :ro%th at a "& I annual rate over the last three months, compared to 'ust !&EI for production and non( supervisory %or4ers& Cn short, the June 'obs data falls into the <it could have been %orse< cate:ory %hich is fast becomin: the official slo:an of the recovery& 7e are seein: an economy that is li4ely to be %ell belo% its potential level of output for more than a decade & 9his means that tens of millions of people %ill needlessly be unemployed or underemployed&

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Me1&co -con
Me1&can econom' )ro"&n) an% secon% (alf sur)e e1pecte% A&nanc&al ,&mes 7/22 (/e5ico# bouncin: bac4H, E$22$!", http#$$blo:s&ft&com$beyond(brics$2
bac4$Oa5))2ZpO6o4@P*$$7K /ore si:ns perhaps that /e5ico8s !"$ E$22$me5ico(bouncin:(

economy is sputterin: bac4 to lifeH On /onday, the country8s statistical office C0G=C said retail sales rose &E per cent in /ay compared to April, follo%in: a drop the month before& 9he ne%s comes 'ust ten days after /e5ico reported a rebound in industrial production for /ay & 9he latest retail fi:ures %ill further add to the vie% amon: economists that the /e5ican economy is set to bounce bac4 in the second(half of this year after a lac4lustre performance in the first half& /e5ico retail sales :re% more stron:ly than e5pected in /ay, %rote /arco Oviedo from 1arclays, %ho %as e5pectin: a month(on(month seasonally ad'usted increase of 'ust &2 per cent& 9he retail sales trend is bac4 in positive territory N9he confirmation of a positive result could su::est that economic activity in :eneral is movin: to%ard a stron:er dynamism in ,", as %e currently e5pect& Cn addition to /ay8s positive industrial production and retail sales numbers, there are other si:ns that /e5ico8s
economy is on the up& 2ar sales rose last month %hile the country8s supermar4et and department stores association %hich has more than @@, members reported a !&F per cent increase in li4e(for(li4e sales for the month& /ean%hile, inflation havin: risen to more than @&D per cent

no% appears under control& Cn June, prices fell a bi::er(than(e5pected

&! per cent& 9his ta4es inflation for the year to @& ? per cent and puts it on trac4 to end the year %ithin the " to @ per cent ran:e forecast by the /e5ican central ban4& +till, that is not to say that /e5ico has been immune from the slu::ishness seen in the :lobal economy& At the start of the year, many %ere e5pectin: Katin America8s second lar:est economy to e5pand by "&D per cent this year, compared to "&? per cent in 2 !2& Fast for%ard a couple of months and that forecast has been thro%n out of the %indo% by most e5perts& 9he consensus no% is for =6P to e5pand by 2&E per cent&

Me1&co7s econom' set to 3oom compet&t&+eness &n manufactur&n) Mar#et W&re% */2? 2itin: 1oston 2onsultin: =roup (/e5icoAs =ro%in: 2ost Advanta:e Over 2hina, Other Gconomies 7ill
1oost Cts G5ports (( and 3&+& /anufacturers, F$2B$!", http#$$%%%&mar4et%ire&com$press(release$me5icos(:ro%in:(cost(advanta:e(over(china(other( economies(%ill(boost(its(e5ports(us(!B F?!!&htm*$$7K 7ithin five years, hi:her manufacturin: e5ports due to a %idenin: cost advanta:e over 2hina and other ma'or economies could

add [2 billion to [F billion in output to /e5icoAs economy annually & And than4s to the 0orth America Free 9rade A:reement (0AF9A*, 3&+& manufacturers of components for everythin: from automobiles to computers assembled in /e5ico also stand to benefit, accordin: to ne% research by 9he 1oston 2onsultin: =roup (12=*& 9he 4ey drivers of /e5icoAs improvin: competitive ed:e are relatively lo% labor costs and shorter supply chains due to the countryAs pro5imity to mar4ets in the 3&+& Another important advanta:e is that /e5ico has @@ free(trade a:reements (( more than any other nation (( allo%in: many of its e5ports to enter ma'or economies %ith fe% or no duties& A tippin: point %as reached in 2 !2, %hen avera:e manufacturin: costs in /e5ico, ad'usted for productivity, dropped belo% those of 2hina & 1y 2 !D, 12= pro'ects, avera:e
total manufacturin: costs in /e5ico are li4ely to be around F percent lo%er than in 2hina and around 2 to " percent lo%er than in Japan, =ermany, Ctaly, and 1el:ium& </e5ico is in a stron: position to be a si:nificant %inner from shifts in the :lobal economy ,< said ;arold K& +ir4in, a 12= senior partner& <9hat

is :ood ne%s not only for /e5ico, %hich relies on e5ports for around one( third of its =6P& CtAs also :ood for America, since products made in /e5ico contain four times as many 3&+&( made parts, on avera:e, as those made in 2hina&< 9he research is part of 12=As on:oin: </ade in America, A:ain< series on the
chan:in: :lobal economics of manufacturin:, produced by its Operations and =lobal Advanta:e practices& 12= has previously released research predictin: that risin: 3&+& e5ports, combined %ith production <reshored< from 2hina, could create up to D million ne% 3&+& 'obs in manufacturin: and related services by the end of the decade, than4s lar:ely to si:nificant labor( and ener:y(cost advanta:es over 7estern Gurope and Japan and risin: costs in 2hina& =lobal companies are e5pected to continue movin: production to /e5ico despite concerns over crime and safety& -esearch by the 7orld Gconomic Forum has found that companies vie% violence and corruption as the most problematic factors of havin: operations in /e5ico (( as %ell as si:nificant costs of doin: business& Another dra%bac4 is the perception that /e5ico lac4s enou:h s4illed %or4ers& 1ut the cost

advanta:es of producin: in /e5ico are becomin: so attractive that many companies are findin: %ays to miti:ate these perceived ris4s& <7hen the economics are a %ash, 3&+& manufacturers often 4eep production in the 3&+&,< said /ichael Zinser, a
12= partner %ho leads the firmAs manufacturin: %or4 in 0orth America& <1ut %hen the economics are compellin:, companies %ill invest in additional security and trainin: to address these issues&< /e5icoAs labor costs are especially competitive %hen productivity differences %ith other economies are factored in& 1y 2 !D, for e5ample, avera:e manufacturin:(labor costs in /e5ico are pro'ected to be !? percent lo%er

than in 2hina, %here %a:es are risin: rapidly, and around " percent lo%er %hen ad'usted for output per %or4er& Cn 2 , /e5ican labor %as DB percent more e5pensive than in 2hina& /e5ico %ill also have lo%er ener:y costs than many other economies& Avera:e electricity costs are around @ percent lo%er in /e5ico than in 2hina, for e5ample, %hile the avera:e price of industrial natural
:as is F" percent lo%er& 9he industries e5pected to see the bi::est production :ains are li4ely to be transportation :oods, computers and electronics, appliances, and machinery& <9hese industries have relatively hi:h labor content, strin:ent lo:istical reMuirements, and stron: e5istin: manufacturin: clusters in /e5ico,< e5plained Gduardo Kean, a 12= senior partner based in /onterrey& 6ue to /e5icoAs :ro%in: cost advanta:e, production in these industries

could increase bet%een E to !? percent by 2 !E over and above the pro'ected level if current :ro%th trends remain the

same& 9his could result in " , to ? , direct manufacturin: 'obs annually in /e5ico and !&D million to "&D million 'obs in related services 'obs& <2ompanies investin: in /e5ico must balance the economics %ith the potential do%nsides,< said +ir4in, %ho, alon: %ith Zinser and 12= partner Justin -ose, is coauthor of <9he 3+ /anufacturin: -enaissance# ;o% +hiftin: =lobal Gconomics Are 2reatin: an American 2omebac4<

Nuclear War 23/221

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(>no%led:eb7harton, 2 !2*& <1ut the economic advanta:es are becomin: so pronounced that :lobal companies should include /e5ico on a shortlist of locations for their ne5t manufacturin: plant&<

-conom' fall&n) no" ,(e -conom&st 5/25 (Kac4lustre :ro%th sho%s the need for reform, D$2D$!", http#$$%%%&economist&com$ne%s$americas$2!DEB@@
lac4lustre(:ro%th(sho%s(need(reform(reality(bites*$$7K

C0QG+9O-+ %ho %ere starry eyed about /e5ico8s economic potential at the start of the year are no% havin: mis:ivin:s& From a record hi:h then, the stoc4mar4et fell to an ei:ht(month lo% on /ay 2!st& Just to rub it in, stoc4s in
1ra)il, %hich /e5ico vie%s as its main re:ional rival, have recently been performin: much better& 9he immediate catalyst for the chan:e of mood is the economy& Cn 6ecember, 'ust as President GnriMue Peca 0ieto came to po%er promisin: to increase /e5ico8s :ro%th potential, the country8s stron: recovery from the 2 B( ? :lobal financial crisis hit the s4ids & Cn the first Muarter of 2 !" slu::ish sales to the 3 nited +tates, by far /e5ico8s lar:est e5port mar4et, helped reduce :ro%th to a modest &BI compared %ith the same period in 2 !2& A fall in public spendin: as a ne% party too4 po%er contributed to the dip& 9he :overnment blamed part of the %ea4ness on the early Gaster holiday (it had previously blamed poor 6ecember numbers on the fact that 2hristmas fell at mid(%ee4*& 0evertheless, on /ay !Eth it lo%ered its :ro%th forecast for the year

to "&!I from "&DI& Other economic data in recent days have added to the %orries& Forei:n direct investment last year plun:ed to [!2&E billion, from an avera:e of around [2" billion durin: the past decade, accordin: to 2GPAK, a 30(lin4ed research or:anisation& Ct
said the fi:ure %as affected by one(offs, such as a decision by +pain8s 1anco +antander to list its /e5ican subsidiary, raisin: [@ billion& 9hat counted as an outflo% of forei:n investment& +ome economists pointed to concerns that hi:h levels of dru:(related crime may also be ta4in: a

toll on investment, notably in tourism& Kast year /e5ico slipped out of the top ten of :lobal tourist destinations& -eadin: too much into a fe%
months8 numbers %ould be ris4y, thou:h& 9he optimism about /e5ico %as never based on this year8s economic :ro%th& Gven before the disappointin: first(Muarter =6P report, the OG26, a Paris(based thin4(tan4 for industrialised countries, had issued a study on the /e5ican economy predictin: a %ea4 2 !" because of feeble demand abroad& Part of the motivation for the reforms that /r Peca has 4ic4(started is that the country is too dependent on the va:aries of the :lobal economy, and needs to :enerate more of its o%n dynamism by freein: business at home& Cn a si5(year national development plan unveiled on /ay 2 th, the :overnment stressed ho% the economy performs belo% its potential& Cn the " years to 2 !! it :re% on avera:e by 'ust 2&@I a year, %hile productivity fell by &EI a year& 2hile, mean%hile, :re% by @&?I a year and sa% productivity increase by !&!I a year& 9he OG26 bemoaned /e5ico8s record# it is alone amon: bi: emer:in: mar4ets in sufferin: from sustained declines in the broadest measure of productivity durin: the past decade& Cn order for =6P :ro%th to rise from its current potential of about "I to a healthier @I, the productivity trend must be reversed throu:h structural reforms, it said& /e5ico8s three main political parties, %hich have created a pact to promote more than ! such chan:es, are aimin: for DI&

/ac# of cap&tal flo"s slo"&n) Me1&co7s econom' no" @euters */2* (3P6A9G !(/e5ico central ban4er# capital flo% defenses may fall short, F$2F$!",
http#$$%%%&reuters&com$article$2 !"$ F$2F$me5ico(economy(sanche)(id3+K20 F2 Q!2 !" F2F*$$7K /e5icoAs defenses a:ainst fluctuations in capital flo%s mi:ht fall short :iven the recent shift in :lobal mar4et sentiment, 1anco de /e5ico board member /anuel +anche) said on 7ednesday& Cn a presentation delivered in +%it)erland, +anche) said capital

inflo%s to

/e5ico had been hi:h but booms often ended in a sudden stop, for e5ample due to e5pectations for ti:hter monetary conditions in advanced economies& 9he /e5ican peso has lost more than ! percent since speculation be:an in /ay that the 3&+ & Federal -eserve mi:ht start un%indin: its stimulus& Kosses accelerated after Fed 2hairman 1en 1ernan4e last %ee4 laid out a roadmap to slo% the pace of the 3&+& central ban4As bond buyin: , a pro:ram that has fueled investor appetite for emer:in: mar4et assets li4e /e5icoAs& +anche) said althou:h /e5ican mar4ets had so far ad'usted in an orderly %ay to the chan:e in mar4et mood, %ith forei:n holdin:s of local debt remainin: hi:h, officials had to remain alert & Policy
measures, includin: hi:h international reserves, a fle5ible credit line %ith the Cnternational /onetary Fund and strict rules for ban4 capital, had so far been aimed at bluntin: the impact of hi:h inflo%s, he said& <+uch policies can hardly be sufficientR hence authorities should remain vi:ilant,< +anche) said, accordin: to slides prepared for the speech& /ar4ets have speculated that /e5ico mi:ht start auctionin: dollars in a bid to counter sharp moves in the peso, a mechanism it has used before durin: periods of peso volatility& /e5icoAs economy is closely lin4ed to that of the 3nited

+tates and has been :oin: throu:h a soft patch in the first months of 2 !", promptin: the :overnment to cut :ro%th estimates to "&! percent& Me1&can econom' "ea# "&t( )ro"t( slo"&n) Wall Street ournal 7/1 (/e5ican Gconomic 6ata Point to a +lu::ish +econd ,uarter, E$!$!", http#$$online&%s'&com$article$19(2O(
2 !" E !(E ?!"?&html*$$7K

Gconomists continue to ratchet do%n their e5pectations for /e5icoAs economic :ro%th in 2 !" , %ith recent data su::estin: that the %ea4ness seen at the start of the year continued %ell into the second Muarter & 9he /e5ican Cnstitute of Finance G5ecutives, or C/GF, said /onday that its manufacturin: inde5 fell in June to @E&", its second month belo% the D level %hich mar4s the
declines& <9he

threshold bet%een e5pansion and contraction& C/GFAs non(manufacturin: inde5, %hich measures activity in services, rose sli:htly to D!&E after ei:ht consecutive months of

June results su::est that %ea4ness %ill remain in the second Muarter in both manufacturin: and services,< C/GF said& 9he institute said it sa% mi5ed si:nals in the 3&+& economy, a bi: driver of /e5ican activity, %ith fairly robust private demand offsettin: the ne:ative
effects of lo%er :overnment spendin:& 1ill Adams, senior international economist at P02 Financial +ervices, said do%nside ris4s are increasin: for /e5ican economic :ro%th&

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<7hile real =6P is unli4ely to contract in the second Muarter, /e5icoAs economy is undeniably %ea4& 9epid :ro%th %ould be an ar:ument for a 1anco de /e5ico rate cut if the peso %erenAt already stin:in: from the last t%o monthsA selloff,< he said& 9he 1an4 of /e5ico has 4ept its benchmar4 overni:ht lendin: rate at @I after lo%erin: the rate by a half percenta:e point in /arch& /r& Adams said /e5ico still retains some of the competitive advanta:es that helped the economy outperform others in the recovery from 2 B(2 ? :lobal do%nturn, %ith the recovery also supported by lo% interest rates and credit :ro%th& Private

economists surveyed last month by the 1an4 of /e5ico lo%ered their full(year 2 !" :ross domestic product estimate to 2&BI from "I the previous month& 9he Finance /inistry cut its :ro%th forecast to "&!I from "&DI in /ay follo%in: a disappointin: first Muarter, %hen =6P e5panded 'ust &BI from a year earlier
because of %ea4er e5port demand and a ne:ative calendar effect& 1an4 of America$/errill Kynch recently reduced its /e5ico :ro%th estimate to 2&DI from 2&?I, but e5pects an acceleration in the second half on faster 3&+& e5pansion, a pic4up in /e5ican :overnment spendin:, and solid demand for /e5ican auto e5ports lin4ed to a 3&+& old(vehicle replacement cycle& /e5ican

domestic demand, %hile holdin: up better than manufacturin:, has also faltered in the first part of the year, %ith retail sales practically flat in the January(April period& Family remittances from /e5icans %or4in: abroad, %hich are %idely thou:ht to fuel consumer demand, %ere do%n ! I throu:h /ay to 'ust under [B&B billion, the 1an4 of /e5ico reported /onday& /r& Adams of P02 said a reduction in mi:ration to the 3&+&

has 4ept the number of remittances rou:hly unchan:ed compared %ith a year earlier, and attributed the ?&DI drop in the avera:e amount per transfer to the ne:ative effect on lo%(income earners of the t%o(percenta:e(point increase this year in the 3&+& payroll ta5& Analysts at 1anorte(C5e predict that remittances %ill be:in to recover in the second half of the year, :iven the declinin: unemployment rate amon: mi:rant %or4ers in the 3&+&

Me1&co (ea+&l' res&l&ent recent reformsF stron) &n%ustr&al pro%uct&on mar#et an% stron) consumer 3ase pro+e ;ac#s -8u&t' @esearc( */* Cnvestment 2ompany that revie%s investment opportunities (9ime to 7orry about
the /e5ico G9FH, F$F$!", http#$$finance&yahoo&com$ne%s$time(%orry(me5ico(etf(2!DF!2??E&html*$$7K
/e5ico is the second lar:est economy in Katin America and a popular vacation destination for many Americans& ;o%ever, the

country has 3e)un to attract man' Amer&can &n+estors as "ellF t(an#s to &ts economic resilience in the latest slo%do%n, and its Muic4ly :ro%in: economy& 9he country has turned into somethin: of a manufacturin: po%erhouse , and it has stolen share from other bi: emer:in: nations such as 2hina& Additionally, the nation has made several moves on a political and policy front, and many believe that these ensure favorable financial conditions and economic :ro%th for the nation8s future &

Gconomy Outloo4 Cn fact, /e5ico has a :reat potential for acceleratin: economic :ro%th& Cn 2 !2 /e5ico maintained a stron: :ro%th at "&?I, %hile some believe that hi:her rates could be in the country8s future should the American economy continue to improve as %ell (+ee 7hy /e5ico G9F is a lon: term 7inner*9he country also represents a very lar:e mar4et as it ran4s Bth in the emer:in: %orld, and !!th overall in terms of =6P si)e& 9o top thin:s off, it also received a solid 111` ratin: from Fitch su::estin: that the nation has a solid economic foundation, and that its reforms are %ell received (+ee 9ime to 1uy 9hese 9op -an4ed Katin America G9F*0e%s in Favor /e5ico8s :ro%th prospects are attractin: investment ban4s and investors huntin: for %ays to :ain :reater e5posure to international mar4ets& Ct8s

the comin: of a:e of the /e5ican mar4et, said Gduardo 2epeda, J&P& /or:an8s senior country officer (+ee Cnside the +ur:in: /e5ico G9F*9he mar4et for credit is also :ro%in:, and the ban4s are stron:ly capitali)ed and have complied %ith Cnternational 1asel " standards& Kocal companies are :eneratin: cash and are

loo4in: to e5pand in the domestic and international mar4ets& 9he forei:n manufacturers are also returnin: to /e5ico as the country has a rich industrial base& 9he automa4ers plan to invest [! billion in ne% assembly plants this year alone &1ad 0e%s Kately -ecently the /e5ican :overnment has cut its :ro%th outloo4 for 2 !" to "&!I from "&DI after a soft first Muarter& /e5ico8s near(term slo%do%n is lar:ely driven by short(term e5ternal factors that are li4ely to lose relevance in the second half of 2 !"&A policy shift to%ards urbani)ation has dra%n mi5ed results& /oreover, mi5ed si:nals from the 3&+& may limit the :ro%th outloo4 for /e5ico& Analysts e5pect the central ban4 could cut

the future for the /e5ican economy is bri:ht& 9he country is relatively correlated to the 3&+&J%hich is a :ood thin: no% that the American economy is bac4 on trac4J%hile it has a massive consumer base of its o%n, alon: %ith a boomin: industrial production mar4et as %ell& =iven this, some lon: term investors may %ant to consider no% as an attractive entry point for the /e5ican economy , especially after the recent
interest rates a:ain once a current spi4e in inflation subsides& Outloo4 and /e5ico G9F +till, despite some of this near term :loom,

slump in eMuity prices& For these investors, a closer loo4 at the /e5ico G9F, described belo%, could be %arranted# i+hares /+2C /e5ico 2apped Cnvestable /ar4et Cnde5 Fund (G77*&Kaunched in /arch !??F, G77 trac4s the /+2C /e5ico Cnvestable /ar4et inde5, %hich consists of stoc4s traded primarily on the /e5ican +toc4 G5chan:e& G77 is a lar:e blend fund %ith net assets of ["&! billion and a tradin: volume of more than 2&F million shares a day& 9he fund holds @E stoc4s in total and the top ten stoc4s ma4e up F I of the fund& G77 holds @2I :iant and "BI lar:e cap stoc4s %ith ma5imum e5posure in the consumer staples (" I*, materials (!?I* and telecommunication sector (!BI* sectors& 9he G9F char:es D2bps per year in e5penses& 9he fund has a yield of !& ?I and has a lo% trac4in: error of &D@I %ith its inde5& 9he product is more volatile as , thou:h its :ro%th outloo4 is far bri:hter as %ell& 9he 1ottom Kine /e5ico is a 4ey emer:in: mar4et that has a hu:e potential for :ro%th& -ecent reforms %ould further bac4 the country8s stron: fundamentals , attractin: more investors to /e5ico& 9his is especially true since many of these compared to the +TP D reforms are in visible sectors li4e services and financials& 9he main fund to play /e5ico has sur:ed over the past !2 months, but there has been si:nificant near term %ea4ness in the fund, li4e in many other emer:in: mar4ets &+till, %e vie% this drop as a potential buyin: opportunity, as %e are maintainin: our top Zac4s G9F -an4 of ! or ^+tron: 1uy8 on this product, su::estin: that a rebound and outperformance are in this G9F8s future, at least based on our models for the ne5t one year time frame&

Me1&co &s res&l&ent an% )ro"t( "&ll cont&nue a3&l&t' to eas&l' o+ercome past cr&ses Hall 1/26 ( Qice(President and 2hief Gconomist at G5port 6evelopment 2anada (Peter =, /e5icoAs -esilience, G5port
6evelopment 2anada, !$2@$!", http#$$embame5&sre&:ob&m5$canadaLen:$ima:es$pdfs$me5icoLresilience&pdf*$$7K

/e5icoAs -esilience Fe% economies escaped the :lobal slo%do%n in the summer of 2 !2& /e5ico %as a rare and notable e5ception& 7hile mar4ed deterioration in 2hina, Cndia and 1ra)il :rabbed the headlines, /e5ico Muietly hummed alon:, :eneratin: remar4ably smooth :ro%th& For an economy so tied to 3+ fortunes, that is Muite an achievement& 7hat is the secret of /e5icoAs successH =6P statistics tell the tale& CndiaAs :ro%th plun:ed from B per cent in mid(2 !! to 'ust under "

per cent last summer& 1ra)ilAs lon: slide sa% year(to(year increases tumble from B per cent in mid 2 ! to less than half of one percent in the second Muarter of 2 !2& 2hinaAs slo%do%n %as less dramatic, slidin: from ? per cent at the end of 2 !! to E&@ per cent by mid(2 !2 ( but :iven that 2hinaAs economy e5periences serious dislocation at around F per cent :ro%th, its dip %as too close for comfort& 9han4fully, the %orst seems to be over, and these economies are no% on the mend& At the same time, /e5ico steadily :enerated Muarterly :ro%th in the "&D(to(D per cent ran:e,

%ith no discernible do%n(trend& 9rue, the latest =6P fi:ure is the %ea4est sho%in: since the recession in 2

?, but over the course of a year,

:ro%th fell by a mere ! per cent, to a still(healthy "&" per cent& Amon: ma'or emer:in: mar4ets, only -ussia sho%ed similar resilience ( but

in terms

Nuclear War MICHIGAN 7WS 2013 25/221 of net steadiness, /e5ico still comes out on top& ;o% do the numbers add upH 6elvin: into /e5icoAs national accounts is revealin:& 2onsumers %ere surprisin:ly resilient in the post(recession period, but they are currently less enthusiasticR :ro%th recently receded
from the steady @ per cent pace to 'ust 2&2 per cent in the third Muarter of 2 !2& Private investment sa% an even steeper decline& From an impressive B(! per cent pace, private construction re:istered a stunnin: 2 per cent year(on(year :ain at the end of 2 !! ( only to see :ro%th completely vanish by the summer of 2 !2& +imilarly, private sector machinery and eMuipment investment ( accustomed to hefty double(di:it increases ( sun4 to a year(on(year :ain 'ust shy of @ per cent early last fall& +o far, the /e5ican economy doesnAt seem much different from the rest of the %orld& 7hat is 4eepin: its overall numbers afloatH 9hrou:hout 2 !2, the :ro%in: private investment void %as filled in by a sur:e of public investment ( mostly construction pro'ects& On paper it seems too :ood to be true, but the :overnmentAs intervention couldnAt have been better timed and the amounts could hardly have been better calibrated& Cn the history of fiscal timin:, itAs probably one for the record boo4s& 1ut the story doesnAt end there& 0ot%ithstandin: the very recent lull,

risin: private investment spea4s to /e5icoAs on:oin: success at attractin: lar:e amounts of forei:n investment& Production arisin: from these investments is boostin: /e5icoAs e5ports , %hich over the past t%o years have outpaced import
:ro%th, yieldin: a decent net contribution to the economy& 9hatAs somethin: the other lar:e emer:in: mar4ets %ere not been able to say until very recently, and hi:hli:hts the underlyin: stren:th of the 3+ economy, the main driver of /e5icoAs e5port success& 7ill /e5icoAs enviable record continueH 9he 4een interest of forei:n investors in /e5ico su::ests that the slo%do%n of private investment is temporary ( :ood ne%s for the :overnment, %hich canAt afford to offset private investment indefinitely& /ore importantly, the e5port potential that 'ustifies forei:n investments is stron:, than4s to resur:ent 3+ housin:, consumer and corporate mar4ets& ,he bottom lineH /e5icoAs recent :ro%th run is impressive, and is set

to continue& Over the comin: months, this mar4et %ill be one to %atch&

Me1&co7s econom' &s res&l&ent IMA 12 (Cnternational /onetary Fund, /e5ico 1an4s -esilient, 1ut =lobal -is4s 0eed 2are, "$"
http#$$%%%&imf&or:$e5ternal$pubs$ft$survey$so$2 !2$car "" !2a&htm*$$7K /e5ico8s ban4in: system is resilient and %ell capitali)ed , and stress

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tests indicate that it %ould be capable of sustainin: si:nificant shoc4s, the C/F said in its latest assessment of the country8s financial system& ;o%ever, /e5ico, the current
president of the =roup of 9%enty (=(2 * advanced and emer:in: economies, %ill need to be vi:ilant to ris4s from outside the country and should stren:then the institutional frame%or4 for its supervision of financial re:ulation by establishin: a fi5ed term for the President of the 1an4in: 2ommission, rebalancin: its 1oard and promotin: stron:er le:al safe:uards for its personnel, the C/F said& Our assessment of /e5ico8s

financial system is very positive, said Fernando /ontes(0e:ret, a senior financial e5pert in the C/F8s /onetary and 2apital /ar4ets 6epartment and head of the team that conducted the assessment& 2ross(border lin4a:es 9he country has better tools for systemic crisis mana:ement and competent supervision& ;o%ever, there have been episodes of distress in recent years and :iven
/e5ico8s si:nificant lin4a:es to the :lobal economy and to +panish ban4s, authorities need to monitor closely and respond Muic4ly to emer:in: ris4s, /ontes(0e:ret said& 9he assessment %as published on /arch " & Cn the %a4e of the :lobal economic crisis, the C/F has

stren:thened its surveillance of countries8 financial systems & +ince !???, the C/F has monitored countries8 financial sectors on a
voluntary basis throu:h a 'oint revie% process %ith the 7orld 1an4 called the Financial +ector Assessment Pro:ram& /e5ico is one of the ma'or 2D financial sectors that must under:o a revie% of its financial health as part of the C/F8s economic surveillance and monitorin:& 9he :lobal economic crisis laid bare the devastatin: economic conseMuences a financial crisis in one country can have on the :lobal economy& 2ountries %ith financial sectors that have the :reatest impact on :lobal financial stability are no% reMuired to under:o in(depth revie%s of their financial health by the C/F every five years& Cn its assessment of the health of /e5ico8s financial system, the C/F recommended the :overnment enact a series of reforms as Katin America8s second lar:est economy continues to moderni)e&

More e+&%ence A3&l&t' to "eat(er Glo3al @ecess&on an% -uro9one melt%o"n pro+es res&l&enc' CaGas 12 ( business economist at the Federal -eserve 1an4 of 6allas he analy)es the re:ional economy& ;as a 1A in economics (Jesus, /e5ico resilient in 2 !! amid :lobal uncertainty and slu::ish 3&+& :ro%th, 9he +outh%est Gconomy, ,2 2 !2,
http#$$%%%&dallasfed&or:$assets$documents$research$s%e$2 !2$s%e!2 2c&pdf*$$7K

/e5ico -esilient in 2 !! Amid =lobal 3ncertainty and +lu::ish 3&+& =ro%th /e5ico navi:ated a ne% %ave of international financial volatility durin: the second half of 2 !!, :ro%in: "&? percent for the yearJslo%er than the D&D percent pace in 2 ! but ahead of the 2&2 percent annual avera:e of 2 !!!& 9he recent performance overcame a period of hei:htened Guropean financial tension, slu::ish :ro%th in the 3&+& and :lobal supply(chain disruptions related to Japan8s natural disasters& 7ea4er manufacturin: output :ro%th and a 2&" percent decline in oil activity slo%ed e5pansion in 2 !!& A:ricultural output also
sta:nated in 2 !!, %hile construction improved after e5periencin: no :ro%th in 2 ! & 9he 2 !2 consensus forecast for a "&@ percent rate of e5pansion is modest compared %ith the prior t%o years8 data (2hart !*& Cn contrast to the 3&+& upturn, robust 'ob :ro%th has characteri)ed

/e5ico8s recovery since the 2

? recession& Formal(sector employmentJdefined as %or4ers covered by /e5ico8s social security system J:re% @&! percent in 2 !!, %ith more than F , 'obs created& /anufacturin: accounted for 2E percent of the ne% 'obs, %hile trade %as responsible for 2D percent and business services for !B percent& 6omestic demand also bounced bac4& 1uoyed by relatively healthy ban4s, risin: household credit and :reater employment, retail sales increased "&! percent in 2 !!J sales volumes surpassed the precrisis pea4 year of 2 B& ;ousehold credit rose !? percent in 2 !! after postin: no :ro%th in real terms in 2 ! & /anufacturin: and 9rade =ro%th /e5ico8s rebound be:an in summer 2 ?, led by manufactured :oods e5ports to the 3&+&, %here the recession had ended that June&! 9his reliance on manufacturin: and e5ports leaves /e5ico vulnerable to :lobal events& 0otably, Japan8s earthMua4e, tsunami and nuclear incidents in /arch 2 !! arrested /e5ican manufacturin: :ro%th& After annual avera:e e5pansion of F&B percent durin: first Muarter 2 !!, /e5ico manufacturin: decelerated in the second Muarter to D percent as supply(chain disruptions too4 hold& Anecdotal evidence indicates that /e5ican plants scaled bac4 production, reflectin: increased lead times for machine tools, %ire harnesses and other Asia(made inputs& Cn the second half of 2 !!, %hen uncertainty abated, supply chains %ere reestablished and orders returned to /e5ican facilities& /anufacturin: production rose @&B percent year over year, %ith manufacturin: e5ports :ainin: ! percent& 9otal

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e5ports :re% !@ percent in 2 !!& /e5ico continues to be one of the best manufacturin: platforms to meet 3&+& demand& Pro5imity, Muic4 turnarounds on manufacturin: desi:n chan:es and a s4illed and e5perienced manufacturin: labor force are important advanta:es (see the bo5 CntraCndustry 9rade# 9he 3&+&/e5ico 2onnection in Cmport, G5port 6ata on pa:e !"*&29ransportation eMuipment manufacturin:, %hich includes motor vehicle production, has been crucial to /e5ico8s recent economic recovery and impressive 'ob :ro%th& 9ransportation eMuipment employment :ro%th avera:ed !E&! percent in 2 !!, up from !2&F percent in 2 ! (2hart 2*& 9he sector represents 22 percent of /e5ico8s manufacturin: production and !E percent of its manufacturin: employment& 9hus, the uncertain performance of the 3&+& economy and the Muestion of %hether the recent run(up in 3&+& automotive demand can be sustained remain si:nificant do%nside ris4s for /e5ico& 7ithstandin: =lobal +hoc4s /e5ico also navi:ated

financial disruption in Gurope in the latter half of the year & 7hen :lobal mar4ets :o a%ry, investors %ithdra% capital from
emer:in: mar4ets in search of safer outlets& 9he premium /e5ico must pay on its debt relative to comparable 3&+& instruments 'umped more than DD percent from July to +eptember and reached levels not seen since July 2 ? (2hart "*& Forei:n portfolio investment in /e5ico, %hich tripled in 2 ! , :re% 'ust @&! percent in 2 !!& 9he diminished rate of investment flo%s helps e5plain a !D percent peso depreciation a:ainst the dollar from July to 6ecember& Cn turn, the %ea4er peso fueled increased imported :oods prices, pushin: up inflation by year(end& /e5ico8s solid macroeconomic

fundamentals and the credibility policyma4ers earned over the past decade helped persuade the international community that the inflation pic4up and peso depreciation %ere transitory &"After spi4in: durin: the third Muarter, the :lobal
Gmer:in: /ar4ets 1ond Cnde5 spread declined si:nificantly& And, in a vote of confidence by international investors, /e5ico in January issued [2 billion in ! (year bonds yieldin: "&E percent, the lo%est rate the country has obtained for the maturity& Additionally, financial mar4ets stabili)ed, %ith inflation slo%in: from 0ovember8s levels&

@es&l&ent 2 susta&na3le f&scal an% econom&c pol&c&es Ne+aer 4 0e% America /edia -eporter (Kouis, Cn =lobal Gconomic 2risis, /e5ico Cs -esilient, 0e% America /edia, 2$F$?,
http#$$ne%s&ne%americamedia&or:$ne%s$vie%Larticle&htmlHarticleLidSbBdc "dFf2E?2eba?eB@"?2! Fc2cFf@*$$7K

9he economic crisis s%eepin: the :lobe has spared no nation, but some are sho%in: remar4able resilience& /e5icoAs economic performance, for e5ample, has sho%n tremendous stren:th& 7hen the 3&+& Federal -eserve e5tended a loan
of [" billion each to the central ban4s of 1ra)il, +outh >orea, +in:apore and /e5ico, /e5ico did not touch those funds& Ct simply reinvested them in 9reasury bonds, leavin: them in accounts in 0e% Por4& 9his is no accident& Ct stems from prudent economic policies implemented after the 6ecember !??@ devaluation of the /e5ican peso that sent the economy into a tailspin& At that time, President Grnesto Zedillo had been in office a fe% days, and his entire a:enda %as thro%n into disarray by the crisis& 9he 2linton administration had to issue an emer:ency [D billion loan ( %hich /e5ico paid bac4 ahead of schedule and %ith interest ( and the Cnternational /onetary Fund, or C/F, helped craft a recovery pro:ram& Ct %as a painful ad'ustment as bud:ets %ere slashed, fiscal restraint %as implemented across the board, and the /e5ican people sa% their investments and savin:s diminish& 9hat %as !D years a:o, and the lessons learned the hard %ay are no% payin: off# /e5icoAs stoc4 mar4et fell 2" percent in 2 B, the <best< performin: ma'or inde5 at a time %hen the 3&+& mar4ets fell "B percent and -ussian mar4ets collapsed by an astoundin: E percent& Kast fall, some feared that the /e5ican economy %ould not be able to escape the turmoil en:ulfin: the 3nited +tates, and the /e5ican peso fell almost " percent vis(d(vis the American dollar& Ct has since recovered, althou:h it has suffered a 2 percent devaluation since the economic crisis be:an last summer& 9hese currency fluctuations reflect the fact that, because of the 0orth American Free 9rade A:reement, or 0AF9A, neither /e5ico nor 2anada have <decoupled< from the 3&+& economy& 9here are several reasons for /e5icoAs economic resilience & One is the fiscal restraint that Zedillo initiated and that

his successor, Qicente Fo5, continued& Fo5, a former corporate e5ecutive, made si:nificant strides in eliminatin: /e5icoAs forei:n debt& /e5icoAs current president, Felipe 2alderon, has 4ept spendin: in line, even as revenues have increased& 7hen disaster struc4, /e5ico had a balanced bud:et, almost no forei:n debt and risin: federal revenues, allo%in: it to intervene to stabili)e prices& /e5ico also dod:ed the housin: speculation that brou:ht its nei:hbor to its 4nees& /e5icoAs financial system has al%ays been strin:ent in e5tendin: credit& Americans roll their eyes at the bureaucracy this entailed ( t%o forms of C6 are reMuired to open a ban4 account in /e5icoR %hen customers reMuest chec4s, they have to pic4 them up at the ban4,
%here their si:nature and C6 are verifiedR credit card applications must be made in person at the financial institution, and not over the phone or throu:h unsolicited mail(in applications& As a result, <identity theft< is almost non(e5istent in /e5ico, and it %as nearly

impossible for a housin: bubble to emer:e there& Another factor is the %indfall oil profits despite the sudden drop in oil prices& 7hen oil pea4ed at [!@E a barrel last summer, there %as disbelief around the %orld# 7ould it shoot up to [2 or fall bac4H 9he conventional %isdom %as that [! a barrel for oil %as the ne% reality :oin: for%ard, and there %as a fren)y to loc4 in prices throu:h futures contracts& /e5ican officials at Peme5, the state(o%ned oil monopoly, didnAt believe that price %as sustainableR their economic models indicated that, %ith slac4in: demand due to the recession, a price ran:e bet%een [F and [B %as <sustainable&< Other countries ( most notably Qene)uela and -ussia ( %ere more ambitious, and
rec4less& 1oth countries let spendin: e5plode, believin: that they could finance anythin: they %anted& 9he economies in both countries today are in freefall& /e5ico, by comparison, %as prudent, savin: the oil %indfall, and /e5ican traders implemented a strate:y

that hin:ed on the price of oil fallin: belo% the [F to [B ran:e & <9heyAre :reat traders,< Phil Flynn, an analyst at Alaron 9radin: 2orp&, said of Peme5 futures traders& <Cf the economy continues to slo%, theyAre loo4in: li4e :eniuses&< 9he %orld economy has more than slo%ed# Ct has hit a %all& And /e5ico is collectin: [? to [!! per barrel today , for oil that is tradin: in the ["B to [@D ran:e at the be:innin: of 2 ?& ;avin: hed:ed its e5ports, /e5ico is :ettin: a premium, and a si:nificant %indfall that %ill total several billion dollars this year, enou:h to sustain social spendin: %ithout massive federal deficits & 7ill this
be enou:h to prevent /e5ico from slippin: into recession in 2 ?H Probably not, but the fact that it has mana:ed to escape a debilitatin: slo%do%n ( the 3nited +tates is in its !@th month of official recession ( su::ests that %hatever economic slo%do%n there is %ill be relatively mild, considerin: the :lobal situation& <9he 3&+& needs to sho% some proof they have a plan to :et out of the fiscal problem,< Grnesto Zedillo told reporters at the 7orld Gconomic Forum in 6avos, +%it)erland last %ee4& <7e, as developin: countries, need to 4no% %e %onAt be cro%ded out of the capital mar4ets, %hich is already happenin:&<

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@uss&a -con
@uss&a7s econom' sta)nat&n) no" no &n+estment or consumer %eman% Nas%a8 7/14 (+taff 7riter at 0asdaM, -ussian Gconomy +ta:nates in !st ;alf, /ay -evise Forecast for Pear /inister, E$!?$!",
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-ussiaAs economy remained in sta:nation mode in the first half of 2 !" , althou:h an e5pected pic4up in the second half may result in a revision to its full(year :ro%th forecast, deputy economy minister said Friday & =ross domestic product rose !&?I on the year in the second Muarter, pic4in: up from !&FI in the first three months of the year, Andrei >lepach told reporters& 9he economy is still bein: held bac4 by slu::ish performance in the e5port(focused sectors of the economy and lo%er capital investments, /r& >lepach said& <-etail sector :ro%th is slo%in: and consumer demand, includin: demand for services, is not stron: enou:h to support economic :ro%th,< he
said& /r& >lepach said his ministry e5pects that investment pattern in -ussia %ill improve in the second half of the year, addin: that the ministry may soon revise its 2 !" economy :ro%th forecast of 2&@I& Officials told 6o% Jones 0e%s%ires last %ee4 that -ussiaAs :overnment is li4ely to raise its forecast, after a strin: of do%n%ard revisions in recent months, partly due to an e5pected bumper :rain harvest& /r& >lepach said that -ussia traditionally sees net capital inflo% in June due to dividend payouts althou:h the ministry is plannin: to revise up its full(year net capital fli:ht forecast to about [D billion from about [" million& -ussia

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lost ["B&B billion in net capital outflo% in the first half of 2 !", less than the [@ &! billion in the same period a year a:o, but much more than initial :overnment forecast of around [! billion outflo% for the %hole year& 2apital outflo%s are typical for oil(dependent -ussia because of stron: current account surplus and a
lac4 of investment opportunities in the country&

Alt Cause !ut&n7s &ron f&st %eterr&n) &n+estment H-@S;-NH.@N an% B@AM-@ */22 staff at Cnternational ;erald 9ribune (9he iron fist could hold up a -ussian
/osco%, the enormous yachts and the hundred(million(dollar penthouse apartments for the children& And the

resur:enceR PutinAs tou:hness may be bi::est obstacle to economic restructurin:, F$22$!", le5is*$$7K For more than a do)en years, it has been impossible to miss -ussiaAs soarin: , often ostentatious, ener:y %ealth ( the flashiness of

riches have hardly been confined to the private sector& Kast year, %hen Qladimir Q& Putin %anted to shore up support before Glection 6ay, the salaries of :overnment %or4ers 'umpedR military pay actually doubled& 9hose heady days seem to be runnin: out, ho%ever& 9he :reat :ush of oil and natural :as %ealth that has fueled /r& PutinAs po%er and popularity and has raised livin: standards across -ussia is levelin: off& Forei:n investors, %ary of endemic corruption and an e5pandin: :overnment role in the economy, are han:in: bac4, deprivin: the economy of essential capital& Cn many respects, analysts say, the same iron fist that /r& Putin %ielded to public approval in the early years of his presidency could be the bi::est obstacle to a badly needed economic restructurin: and could even turn public opinion a:ainst him& -ussiaAs economy, the %orldAs ei:hth(lar:est, slo%ed to a near standstill in the first months of this year , and the >remlin is preparin: to dip into its [!E! billion rainy(day fund in a bid to encoura:e :ro%th& On Friday, /r& !utin announced an ambitious and ris4y economic stimulus pro:ram in %hich up to [@"&D billion in reserve funds %ould be spent on three bi: infrastructure pro'ects& 1ut t he problems for -ussiaAs economy run deeper
than its over%helmin: dependence on oil and :as revenues, %hich no% account for more than half the federal bud:et& 6espite the conspicuous consumption of oli:archs and the :ro%in: middle class in /osco% , most of -ussiaAs :oods(producin: economy has been

lan:uishin: for decades& /any provincial cities and to%ns have :ro%n shabby, the factories that sustained them decrepit& Poun: people have moved a%ay& 7ith flattenin: revenues, the :overnment badly needs to attract forei:n capital, but the >remlinAs recent move to ti:hten its :rip on the oil industry throu:h -osneft, the national oil company, %as 'ust the latest %arnin: fla: to potential investors& (-osneft made a [2E billion deal to double oil supplies to 2hina on Friday, one of the bi::est deals in dooms the economy to underperformance,AA he said& AA9he state is too bi:, itAs involved in too many areas of activity and involvin: itself in too many more areas of activity, and by its nature discoura:es private investment&AA As -ussiaAs senior political officials,

the history of the oil industry, -euters reported&* AA9he fundamental problem in this economy is still the politics of the country,AA said 1ernard +ucher, the former head of /errill Kynch in -ussia, %ho serves on the board of Aton, an investment company& AA9he %ay po%er is or:ani)ed in this country

business leaders and forei:n investors convened in +t& Petersbur: on 9hursday at an economic forum that serves as an annual :atherin: of the countryAs top financial minds, the tas4 facin: /r& Putin %as ho% to create sustainable :ro%th in a country %here commodities, ta4en to:ether, no% account for B percent of e5ports& /r& Putin made the ne% stimulus plan the centerpiece of his speech Friday at the forum& 9he pro:ram %ould lend money from the national pension reserves to moderni)e the storied 9rans(+iberian -ail%ay, %hich runs to /osco% from Qladivosto4 in the -ussian Far GastR to construct an B (4ilometer, or D (mile, hi:h(speed rail line to /osco% from >a)an, the capital of the 9atarstan re:ionR and to build a superhi:h%ay rin:in: /osco%& AAOur 4ey challen:e in the comin: years is to remove many infrastructure constraints that literally stifle our country, and prevent unloc4in: the potential of entire re:ions,AA /r& Putin said& AACnvestors are hu:ely interested in infrastructure pro'ects, especially if the state is ready to provide :uarantees, minimi)e the ris4s and act as a co(investor&AA Cn addition to the infrastructure pro:ram, /r& Putin outlined additional steps to bolster -ussiaAs economy, includin: a plan to restrict increases in tariffs on utilities and to encoura:e lo%er interest rates on commercial loans& 9he :ro%th in tariffs has often outpaced the rise in inflation in recent years& /r& Putin also said -ussia %ould continue efforts to reduce inflation, %hich he said had been successful in recent years but perhaps not enou:h& 9here have been blunt %arnin:s a:ainst tappin: the reserve funds, %hich no% total [!E! billion, or about B percent of annual economic output& AAFiscal stimulus at this time %ould li4ely be ineffective, and merely intensify inflation pressures,AA Antonio +pilimber:o, %ho led an Cnternational /onetary Fund team that recently completed a fact(findin: mission in -ussia, said before the announcement Friday& At the same time, /r& +pilimber:o and other analysts

say -ussia is better positioned than many other bi: economies, and could thrive if needed chan:es %ere made& AACmprovin: -ussiaAs business climate %ould provide needed impetus to investment,

diversification and :ro%th,AA he said& +ome e5perts at the forum said they %ere confounded by -ussiaAs contradictory problems# lo% :ro%th and hi:h

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inflation& AAFinancial policy is %eird,AA said Pu Pon:din:, a senior fello% at the Cnstitute of 7orld Gconomics and Politics in 1ei'in:& ;e %as on a panel %ith Glvira 0abiullina, an aide to /r& Putin %ho has been tapped to lead -ussiaAs central ban4, and -ussiaAs economic development minister, Andrei 1elousov& AA7here is your industryHAA /r& Pu as4ed& AAPou can produce super(e5cellent 'et fi:hters, but %hat elseHAA Gner:y prices, %hile still relatively hi:h, are e5pected to flatten or decline in the years ahead& =a)prom, the -ussian ener:y behemoth, has been cuttin: prices and rene:otiatin: contracts, under pressure from cash(poor clients in Gurope and risin: competition :lobally, caused in part by mar4et shifts li4e the development of shale :as in the 3nited +tates& 6iscounts to customers cost =a)prom [@&2 billion, or about E percent of preta5 earnin:s, accordin: to -enaissance 2apital, an investment ban4& Oil revenues are also pro'ected to decline lon:(term as production :ro%s more costly and ne% technolo:y curbs demand& And more than a decade of efforts to diversify the economy have lar:ely failed& 9here is little to sho% for :overnment(sponsored pro:rams aimed at developin: a technolo:y sector, for instance, or revivin: +oviet manufacturin:& >senia Pudaeva, an economist %ho is /r& PutinAs liaison to the =roup of 2 developed and emer:in: nations, said -ussia %as hardly alone in stru::lin: to find ne% sources of :ro%th& AA9he si:nificant problem is uncertainty above all ,AA she said& AA1efore the crisis, it %as clear that -ussia has natural resources and -ussia has si:nificant demand, %hich %as based lar:ely on oil profits&AA 0o%, she said, investors are not sure %here to loo4 for opportunities & AACtAs not clear yet for investors %hich sectors, other than the traditional ones, %ill be most profitable&AA Other economists said investment %as the 4ey& AACf you loo4 at :ro%th performance, the %ea4est part of the economy is investment,AA Paroslav Kissovoli4, chief economist at 6eutsche 1an4, said in an intervie%& AA9o revitali)e -ussiaAs :ro%th,

measures need to be ta4en on the structural front, to boost investment &AA 9he -ussian finance minister, Anton =& +iluanov, %ho
is leadin: the response to the slo%do%n, said that -ussia %as sufferin: partly because of continuin: problems in Gurope, %hich collectively is -ussiaAs main tradin: partner, but that the :overnment %as poised to act& AA9here is a Muestion %hat measures have to be ta4en in order to stimulate the investment activity, stimulate the business activity, ma4e the -ussian economy more attractive for forei:n investors,AA he said& AA9his is e5actly

%hat the -ussian :overnment is %or4in: on no%&AA /r& +iluanov said the infrastructure pro:ram ( hi:h(speed railroads, ma'or
investment pro'ects and improvements to road net%or4s in /osco% ( %ould benefit the country on many levels& 7ithout ne% sources of :ro%th, the :overnment %ill stru::le to meet demands for increased social spendin:, particularly on pensions for the countryAs a:in: population& And if the

stimulus plan fails, /r& Putin could find his political support erodin: in the -ussian heartland, %here it remained stron: even
durin: the lar:e street protests a:ainst him in /osco% last year& +ome of his critics are e5pectin:, if not Muite hopin: for, that result& AAC donAt really thin4 the economy is headin: to%ard collapse, more li4ely lon:(term sta:nation ( a lost decade, if you %ill,AA said Qladimir /ilov, a former deputy ener:y minister and no% a leader in the political opposition& AA9his %ill not lead to an immediate sur:e in protests, but it %ill be very difficult for /r& Putin to sta:e another successful election in 2 !B, should the economy be dead&AA /r& Putin envisions -ussia as a :lobal economic

po%erhouse, and the ruble as perhaps a reserve currency someday& 1ut %hat economists almost universally cite as a precondition ( a political overhaul that produces effective and reliable institutions that investors trust , and a resilient, diversified economy ( so far remains out of reach& @uss&a7s res&l&ent can sur+&+e collapse &n o&l pr&ces See#&n) Alp(a 5/24 (-ussiaAs Gconomy &&& 6ysfunctional 1ut CntactX, D$2?$!", http#$$see4in:alpha&com$article$!@FF?D!(russias(economy(
dysfunctional(but(intact*$$7K
7ritin: in Forbes, /ar4 Adomantis presents a thou:htful account of %hy the

-ussian economy is a lot more resilient than many in the 7estern media believe& For a start, -ussiaAs forei:n reserves are hu:e, amon: the bi::est in the %orld, and currently stand at close to [D billion (e5cludin: :old*& /oreover, if you loo4 at a :raph of oil prices over time and at a :raph of -ussiaAs reserves over time, they are virtually a perfect fit, %hich means that provided the price of oil stays relatively stable or increases, -ussiaAs forei:n reserves pool is :oin: to continue to be e5tremely healthy, even if the >remlin spends fairly freely & 9his is not 'ust a nice(to(have factor& A deep forei:n reserves pool provides a :reat cushion a:ainst e5ternal shoc4s ( such as a sudden crash in the price of oil& +o even if that happened, the -ussian economy %ouldnAt collapse overni:ht& +econd, in 2 !2 the -ussian :overnment ran a bud:et surplus of around !&@I, do%n on the 2 !! fi:ure of "&2I, but still a surplus, %hereas most 7estern :overnments are runnin: :ro%in: deficits& -ussia is spendin: a :reat deal moderni)in: its military systems ( %hich %ere desperately in need of moderni)ation ( but the vast bul4 of :overnment spendin: :oes else%here, on social policy, education, healthcare and the li4e& And then there is the unemployment fi:ure, %hich, at around FI is %ay better than the Guropean avera:e & 9he non(oil economy in -ussia needs %or4, thatAs for sure, but collapse is not 'ust round the corner , and the media needs to ta4e this fact on board, Adomantis ar:ues& @uss&an econ slo"&n) no" lac# of e1ports an% pr&+ate &n+estment A&nanc&al ,&mes 7/14 (+taff 7riter, -ussian economic :ro%th disappointin: in second Muarter, E$!?$!",
http#$$%%%&ft&com$cms$s$ $fb!?dEcB(f ?B(!!e2(?2?c( !@@feabdc &htmlOa5))2Zdfb2)2K*$$7K

-ussia8s economy e5panded at a slo%er pace than e5pected in the second Muarter, increasin: the li4elihood that the country %ill :ro% at %ell under " per cent this year & =ross domestic product rose at an annual rate of !&? per cent bet%een April

and June, Andrei >lepach, the deputy economy minister, said on Friday, brin:in: =6P :ro%th for the first half to !&E per cent after a particularly %ea4 start to the year& Analysts blamed the lo% :ro%th on a slo%do%n in investment, %hich accounts for about a fifth of -ussia8s =6P, as

%ell as %ea4 e5ternal demand from 4ey e5port mar4ets such as the G3& At present, analysts forecast the economy to :ro% at 2&B per cent for 2 !", but Cvan 9cha4arov, chief economist at -enaissance 2apital, said he e5pected the consensus forecast to fall to at least 2&D per cent& 9his is a disappointin: number, he said of the second(Muarter =6P fi:ure& C thin4 %e are :oin: to see a flurry of do%n%ard revisions for the %hole year& 9he slo%do%n in investment comes as -ussia8s bi::est commodities :roups, such as =a)prom and -osneft, slash their capital e5penditure plans for the year , %hile forei:n investors also pull bac4 either because of domestic concerns about -ussia or the slo%do%n in their home mar4ets& 7e have seen cuts in the investment pro:rammes of the lar:est companies , includin: the state(run companies& 7e have seen

Nuclear War MICHIGAN 7WS 2013 24/221 :overnment spendin: decrease in real terms if you include inflation& 2onsumer demand has been %ea4enin: follo%in: the trend of slo%er
:ro%th in real incomes, said Qladimir 9i4homirov, chief economist at Ot4ritie 2apital, the /osco% bro4era:e& -ussian retail sales are no% :ro%in: at about " to @ per cent on an annual basis, versus E(B per cent this time last year& /ean%hile, both the public and private sectors are more constrained in their ability to raise %a:es& Analysts e5pect :ro%th to pic4 up si:nificantly in the second half of the year, partially than4s to a %ea4 comparative period in 2 !2, as %ell as e5pectations of a stron: harvest& -ussia8s a:ricultural ministry is predictin: a " per cent rise in a:ricultural output this year a si:nificant enou:h increase to help food prices fall and inflation to come do%n& Cf you ta4e a more for%ard(loo4in: vie%, the second half of the year %ill be better& 9here %ill be a better harvest and slo%er inflation, %hich %ill :ive the central ban4 more of a reason to cut rates, said /r 9cha4arov& 9he :overnment has also e5panded the number of refinancin: tools that the central ban4 can use to increase liMuidity in the system, ma4in: it easier for ban4s to lend to the real economy& /r 9cha4arov noted there had been some positive si:ns, such as stron: a:ricultural output in June& 1ut he said the %ea4 first(half =6P fi:ures %ould si:nificantly %orsen -ussia8s full(year :ro%th fi:ures & Cf in the first half of the year it8s !&E per cent :ro%th, you definitely need a =6P :ro%th of about " per cent in the second half in order to :et to 2&D per cent :ro%th for the year, he said& -ussian =6P :re% by "&@ per cent in 2 !2 and @&" per cent in 2 !!&

No collapse com&n) %o&n) 3etter t(an rest of -urope A%oman&s 5/24 +pecialist in -ussian Gconomics at Forbes (/ar4, -ussia8s slo%do%n isn8t as bad as you thin4 and is li4ely
tied to the euro )one crisis, D$2?$!", ,uart), http#$$M)&com$B?!"@$russias(slo%do%n(isnt(as(bad(as(you(thin4(and(is(li4ely(tied(to(the(euro()one( crisis$*$$7K -ussia is a country that tends to brin: out overheated reactions from people %ho study and %rite about it& -ather than presentin: -ussia as a middle income country that has a lot in common %ith many other middle income countries (corruption, popular dissatisfaction, substantial structural limitations to more rapid economic :ro%th* 'ournalists tend to focus on its sins and blo% them out of all proportion& /odest economic

slo%do%ns can be presented as catastrophic collapses, and every bit of (un'ustified* harassment of the anti( Putin opposition is dar4ly, and some%hat absurdly, compared to the =reat 9error or collectivi)ation & 7hile C8m s4eptical that 2 !" %ill be the year that the -ussian economy collapses do%n around Putin8s ears, by this point it is completely undeniable that its economy has slo%ed do%n si:nificantly & Cn the first Muarter of 2 !", -ussia8s economy
%as basically sta:nant, :ro%in: at a rate of around !I& 9his %as a sharp slo%do%n from the :ro%th rate of 2 !2, %hich itself %as mar:inally lo%er than 2 ! or 2 !! and much lo%er than the pre(2 B boom days& +o "hat :ivesH 7hy is -ussia8s economy slo%in: so dramatically in the first half of 2 !"H +ome people, such as former minister of Finance Ale5ei >udrin, ar:ue that the problems are essentially domestic in nature# -ussia has reached the limits of its current economic model and must under:o deep supply(side reforms& Accordin: to this school of thou:ht, any attempts at stimulus are pointless because they %ill simply spar4 inflation (%hich is the most sensitive political issue in -ussia* and only succeed in postponin: the day of rec4onin:& Cn short, there is no output :ap, -ussia is :ro%in: at or above its capacity, and the country needs to underta4e a ma'or chan:e in policy to reassure entrepreneurs and spar4 investment or it ris4s immediate sta:nation& 9he relatively ti:ht labor mar4et, -ussian unemployment is under FI and is near a post(+oviet record lo%, is perhaps the best piece of evidence that this :roup can brin: to bearR it stron:ly su::ests that there isn8t a demand shortfall but a competitiveness problem& 9here is clearly somethin: to this, and even the most optimistic analysis of -ussia8s economy

has to concede that it is hindered by a number of substantial structural problems & Cn the lon: term, -ussia really %ill have to ma4e ma'or chan:es to its policies if it %ants to remain competitive and if it %ants to continue to :ro% & 1ut, over the past several years, a lot of people seem to be confusin: desirable structural reforms %ith necessary short term policies and potential lon:(term trends %ith the most recent developments& +o althou:h -ussia has some si:nificant domestic problems, C %ould ar:ue that the country8s economic deceleration loo4s a lot less bi)arre and ine5plicable %hen you consider its close economic lin4a:es to the Guropean 3nion and ho% its immediate nei:hbors have performed&
;ere8s a :raph of Gurostat and -osstat data sho%in: ho% the ma'or post(2ommunist countries in Gastern Gurope have performed since the be:innin: of 2 ! (C omitted ;un:ary because its performance is so miserable it thro%s the :raph8s scalin: off*& -ussia 2hart 7hat8s note%orthy is that

-ussia continued to :ro% after most other countries in the re:ion had started to sta:nate & Gven usually robust Poland and +lova4ia, %hich have to:ether %eathered the economic crisis better than any other countries in Gurope, %ere basically in stasis for the second half of 2 !2& And the first Muarter of 2 !" %as no better, %ith Poland :ro%in: at an annual rate of &@I and +lova4ia &?I& +o -ussia, %hile :ro%in: slo%er than it used to, is still :ro%in: faster than other Gastern Guropean countries& 0o% perhaps it8s simply a coincidence that, to%ards the end of 2 !2 and the be:innin: of 2 !", a broad s%athe of
countries in eastern Gurope, includin: -ussia and 34raine, all started to %ea4en economically& Pou don8t need to :o very far beneath the surface of any of these countries to find some pretty serious issues, and you could create a plausible narrative about %hy any particular country %as e5periencin: problems& ;o%ever, %hen the entire eastern Guropean re:ion simultaneously e5periences an economic slo%do%n, C

%ould humbly su::est that there are ma'or international factors at %or4 and that %e have to loo4 to the never( endin: crisis of the euro )one& @uss&a7s econom' sl&pp&n) on 3r&n# of recess&on no" @, 5/17 -ussia 0e%s +ource (-ussia8s economic :ro%th in !, 2 !" the slo%est since 2
!M2 !"(crisis(@@ $*$$7K

?, D$!E$!", http#$$rt&com$business$russia(:dp(

-ussia8s economy e5panded !&FI year on year in the first Muarter of 2 !", the country8s 4ey statistics service -osstat, has said& 9hou:h better than forecast, the result sho%s the %orst Muarterly performance since 2 ?& 9he estimate for -ussia8s =6P :ro%th bet%een
January and /arch turned out to be much better than the -ussian Gconomic 6evelopment /inistryAs preliminary forecast of !&!I :ro%th& A si:nificant up%ard revision of %holesale trade fi:ures for the first t%o months of the year bolstered the fi:ure, accordin: to Ole: Zasov, head of composite macroeconomic forecastin: at the Gconomic 6evelopment /inistry& <-osstat revised %holesale trade dynamics for the first t%o months considerably& 9here %as \ori:inally] a "I year(on(year decrease, %hich turned into a "I increase, and %holesale trade accounts for around ! I of =6P,< Zasov e5plained& 6espite beatin: e5pectations, the announcement still didn8t :ive much cause for optimism , as this performance %ould

Nuclear War 30/221

MICHIGAN 7WS 2013

still Mualify as the %ea4est Muarter since @, ?, commented Cvan 9cha4arov, 2hief Gconomist for -ussia T 2C+ at -enaissance 2apital& 9his %as broadly e5pected as it is at least partly related to the very hi:h base effect from !,!2 %hen the economy :re% by almost DI PoP, the e5pert %rote in an e(mail&

9he outloo4 for the -ussian economy in 2 !" has recently :ro%n Muite pessimistic, %ith %arnin:s about a loomin: recession bein: voiced by both officials and analysts & Garlier in April -ussia8s /inister for Gconomic 6evelopment Andrey 1elousov said the country could slip into recession by autumn if stimulus measures %ere not ur:ently ta4en& One of the recent alarm bells came from the ;i:her +chool of Gconomics (;+G*, %ith e5perts sayin: that a so(called technical recession has already hit the country& 9echnical recession is a term used to refer to an economic contraction seen for si5 consecutive months& 9his time around the /inistry for
Gconomic 6evelopment sounded more optimistic, %ith Andrey 1elousov promisin: a 4ind of an economic miracle for -ussia& ;e said the economic :ro%th slo%do%n trend could turn around as early as the third Muarter 2 !"& <7e anticipate that there %ill be a turnin: point in ne:ative trends already in the second Muarter and that economic :ro%th %ill surpass "I in the second half of the year,< 1elousov specified& -osstat %ill :ive more detailed ,! =6P data in the middle of June&

-con lo" ne)at&+e &n+estment en+&ronment an% "ea# -uro9one $loom3er) 5/17 (-ussian =6P G5pands !&FI as Gconomy +lo%s for Fifth ,uarter (2*, D$!E$!", http#$$%%%&business%ee4&com$ne%s$2
D(!E$russian(:dp(e5pansion(at(!(dot(F(percent(as(economy(slo%s(for(fifth(Muarter*$$7K -ussia8s economy :re% at the %ea4est pace since 2 ? in the first Muarter

!"(

as the euro area8s lon:est recession hurt demand for commodity e5ports and investment at companies includin: OAO =a)prom cooled& =ross domestic product rose !&F percent from a year
earlier, slo%in: for a fifth consecutive Muarter, the Federal +tatistics +ervice in /osco% said today in an e(mailed statement& 9hat compares %ith a median estimate of !&2 percent in a 1loomber: survey of 2" economists and a 2&! percent pace in the final three months of 2 !2& 9he Gconomy /inistry estimated first(Muarter :ro%th at !&! percent& 9he economy of the %orld8s lar:est ener:y e5porter is :rindin: to a halt as the recession in the euro area, %hich accounts for about half of -ussian trade, e5tended into a si5th Muarter& 9hat8s promptin: companies to trim investment , %hile

:overnment spendin: on the 2 !@ +ochi Olympics is dra%in: to a close and public(%a:e :ro%th slo%s& 9he main reasons for the slo%do%n are the :enerally ne:ative environment and, as a result, %ea4 e5ports , said Qladimir
Osa4ovs4iy, chief economist for -ussia at 1an4 of America /errill Kynch in /osco%& 9here8s also a fairly noticeable sta:nation in investment demand, primarily because of the %ea4 e5ports& Ka::in: 1ehind -ussian stoc4s have underperformed emer:in:( and developed(mar4et peers, %ith the /ice5 Cnde5 (C06GY2F* do%n 2&D percent in the first three months, compared %ith a 2 percent decline in the /+2C Gmer:in: /ar4ets Cnde5 and a ! percent advance for the +TP D & -ussia8s benchmar4 %as up for the first time in si5 days, risin: 2&! percent to !,@ !&E? at the close in /osco%& 9he ruble

recorded first(Muarter depreciation for the first time since 2

?, %ea4enin: &@ percent a:ainst the central ban48s tar:et bas4et of dollars and euros& Ct %as little chan:ed at "D&@22B& 9he =6P slo%do%n prompted the Gconomy /inistry last month to cut its 2 !" :ro%th forecast to 2&@ percent from "&E percent& 9hat is slo%er than last year8s "&@ percent e5pansion& 9he ministry reiterated the forecast in an e(mailed statement today, sayin: a revie% of the forecast %as planned in +eptember at the earliest& -ussia probably %on8t slide into recession %ithout an e5ternal shoc4, such as a do%nturn in the :lobal economy, accordin: to 6eputy Gconomy /inister Andrei >lepach& 7hile the euro area is sta:natin:, some improvement there is e5pected in the second half, he told reporters yesterday& +ta:nation Gvil For us, sta:nation and lo% :ro%th are no less of an evil and no less of a threat, >lepach said after a :overnment meetin: in /osco%& Acceleratin: the pace of :ro%th %ithout startin: serious, national
macroeconomic pro'ects is impossible& 9he :overnment this %ee4 submitted a draft plan to revive the economy to President Qladimir Putin, %ith measures includin: lo%erin: ban4 lendin: rates and slo%in: increases in utilities tariffs& 7ith the slo%do%n bein: driven in part by

structural factors, %e fear there is little fiscal or monetary policy can do to boost :ro%th %ithout sto4in: inflation pressures, Ki)a Grmolen4o, an emer:in:(mar4ets economist at 2apital Gconomics in Kondon, said in a research note& One of the most
stri4in: features of the recent slo%do%n is that :ro%th slo%ed despite the fact that oil prices have remained hi:h& 3rals crude, the country8s main e5port blend, avera:ed [!! &EE a barrel in the first Muarter, compared %ith [!!F&FE a year earlier, accordin: to data compiled by 1loomber:& 9he price for e5ports via north%est Gurope %as [! 2&E" today& Cnvestment 2ontracts Fi5ed investment fell &B percent from a year earlier in /arch, the second contraction in four months, accordin: to the statistics service& Cnvestment

by -ussia8s bi::est infrastructure companies

dropped ! percent last year and may tumble !2 percent to !" percent in 2

!", led by =a)prom, Gconomy /inister Andrei 1elousov said yesterday& 9he slo%do%n has set off an ar:ument bet%een the :overnment and central ban4 about %hether interest rates are to blame& 9he Gconomy /inistry has called for lo%er borro%in: costs and hi:her investment spendin: by the state to stimulate domestic demand& 1an4 -ossii has ar:ued that unemployment near record lo%s and consumer(lendin: :ro%th at almost @ percent mean cheaper loans %ould only fuel inflation& Ko%

e5pectations for the first Muarter have been formed by the Gconomy /inistry, %hich estimated =6P :ro%th at !&! percent, said Julia
9sepliaeva, head of research at 10P Paribas +A in /osco%& 9he ministry may have been aimin: to tri::er a::ressive economic stimulus to stave off recession ris4s, she said in a note to clients& ;oldin: -ates /onetary(policy ma4ers led by central ban4 2hairman +er:ey C:natiev, %ho steps do%n ne5t month, have resisted calls to lo%er -ussia8s 4ey rates as inflation remains more than one percenta:e point above their D percent to F percent tar:et ran:e& 9hey 4ept the refinancin: rate at B&2D percent for an ei:hth month this %ee4& 9he outloo4 is not loo4in: positive for -ussia at this sta:e, Piotr /atys, an emer:in:(mar4et economist at @cast Ktd& in Kondon, said by phone& 9he :overnment %ill seriously have to start implementin: some bold structural reforms to reduce corruption, improve investment sentiment&

@uss&an econom' res&l&ent consumer spen%&n) an% %&storte% %ata Ne&l */21 chief -ussia economist at /or:an +tanley (Jacob, -esilient consumers %ill rescue economy, F$2!$!", -ussia and
Cndia -eport, http#$$indrus&in$economics$2 !"$ F$2!$resilientLconsumersL%illLrescueLeconomyL2F"!D&html*$$7K 9he recent slo%do%n to !&F percent :ro%th in the first Muarter of 2 !", combined %ith sta:nant investment and industrial production and

has also spar4ed tal4 of recession, but this is an overreaction& Cn my vie%, the resilient -ussian consumer %ill ensure a respectable " percent :ro%th in 2 !" & 9here
fallin: corporate borro%in:, has prompted the :overnment to revie% its economic policy& Ct

Nuclear War MICHIGAN 7WS 2013 31/221 are t%o reasons for thin4in: the recent slo%do%n is not a slide to recession & First, the presidential election last year distorted the picture& 9here %as a sur:e in public spendin: before and around the election, pea4in: at a "B percent annual :ro%th rate in /arch 2 !2, %hich flattered :ro%th at the end of 2 !! and in early 2 !2 & +ince then, there has been a sharp and sustained slo%do%n in public spendin: to " percent in April, %hich has depressed :ro%th& 1ut this spendin: cycle is in the past, and the distortion is already droppin: out of the numbers, %ith :ro%th pic4in: up to 2&F percent in April& +econd, many parts of the economy have continued to tic4 alon: J notably the labor mar4et, %here unemployment is at a post(+oviet lo% and vacancies are risin:, as %ell as the loan mar4et & 9he -ussian consumer has accounted for FD percent of :ro%th over the last decade& Ct remains 4ey in 2 !"& 9his year, C e5pect resilient private consumption than4s to robust %a:e :ro%th, supported by consumer borro%in: and fallin: savin:s& 7a:e :ro%th is runnin: at !2 percent in cash and @&2 percent in real terms, and real %a:es %ill li4ely rise sli:htly throu:h the year for t%o reasons& First, the labor mar4et is ti:hter than last year, %ith lo%er unemployment, hi:her vacancies and stron:er private sector %a:e :ro%th in 4ey sectors such as services, finance and construction& +econd, inflation should fall from the current E&@ percent to belo% F percent later this year, helped by a better harvest and subdued monetary :ro%th& -ussia has comparatively lo% household debt J !2 percent of :ross domestic product J and the avera:e -ussian spends only @&2 percent of income on debt service& 7ith consumer borro%in: runnin: at a robust "F percent in April and some capacity to ta4e on more debt, C e5pect the net transfer of resources from ban4s to consumers to continue, supportin: consumption& +urprisin:ly, savin:s pic4ed up at the end of 2 !2 and are "
percent hi:her than a year a:o& 7ith lo% unemployment, savin:s should fall, supportin: consumption&

@uss&a res&l&ent )ro"&n) t&es "&t( As&a Nat( 12 staff %riter at 6elta Gconomics (+onia, -ussian -esilience ;o% trade %ith the Gast may help -ussian economy run riot,
?$! $!2, http#$$%%%&deltaeconomics&com$russian(resilience(ho%(trade(%ith(the(east(may(help(russian(economy(run(riot$*$$7K Guropean economies have seen much better daysR the continent8s on:oin: economic stru::le has been providin: ample 'ournalistic fodder for the past fe% years& ;o%ever, on the other side of the continent, the -ussian economy seems to be Muite resilient to the conta:ion & -ecent :ro%th fi:ures from the -ussian +tatistical A:ency, -osstat, reported @&@I year(on(year :ro%th in the first half of 2 !2& 9he -ussian economy has recently been benefittin: from the stron: price of oil, its chief e5port& Althou:h -ussia recently suffered its %ea4est increase in

retail sales for !B months (D&!I versus the e5pected F&2I*, this is not as bad as it first seems& 7hile many blame the sli:ht increase
of inflation to D&EI in July this year, historically this is much lo%er than the hi:hs of !?& "I in January 2 2 and so reducin: inflation to belo% FI is a feat in itself& 9he euro)one crisis may also not serve to be a serious problem for the -ussian /inistry of Finance for much lon:er& 9he

>remlin is :radually ti:htenin: ties %ith their Asian nei:hbours and increasin:ly distancin: the -ussian economy from seemin:ly perpetual Guropean %oes, tradin: %ith Gurope less and less since 2 F& Accordin: to 6elta8s 9rade /odel, this trend is set to continue, for e5ample %ith a si:nificant pro'ected drop in -ussian oil e5ports to Gurope to 2 !F& 1y contrast, the -ussian :overnment has recently committed billions of roubles (%orth of investment to the city of Qladivosto4 and other Far(Gastern re:ions and is holdin: the Asia(Pacific Gconomic 2o(operation +ummit in +eptember in a nearby re:ion to further consolidate their ties %ith the Asian economies& Accordin: to a report released by the -ussian Federal 2ustoms +ervice, in the first t%o months of 2 !2, 2hina(-ussia trade turnover rose 2!&!I year(on(year, reachin: !"&" billion 3&+& dollars& 9his %ill no doubt have been facilitated by the series of
meetin:s bet%een the -ussian Prime /inister and President have had %ith 2hinese leaders over the past year and a half, settin: a :oal of liftin: bilateral trade to [! billion by 2 !D and to [2 billion by 2 2 & A Financial 9imes\!] article on the sub'ect also details that trade turnover %ith Japan more than doubled bet%een 2 D and 2 ! , %hile trade %ith +outh >orea tripled over the same period& 9he -ussian Federation seems to be

ma4in: a tactical shift from 7est to Gast, perhaps most evident in the s%itch from /osco% to the ^ne% capital8, Qladivosto4# 'ust a t%o
hour fli:ht from 9o4yo and +eoul& 9he affiliation %ill be aided by the suitability of the match# -ussia imports mostly machinery and eMuipment, medicines, iron and steel products %hich all feature in 2hina8s top e5ports& /ean%hile, B I of -ussia8s e5ports constitute metals and ener:y, commodities %hich are amon: Japan, 2hina and +outh >orea8s ma'or imports& 7hile protests and ro:ue pun4 bands may be roc4in: the nation8s political scene, the -ussian economy and its shift in dependence from the troubled 7est to the %ealth of

opportunities in the Gast seems to be one from %hich %e could learn a fe% lessons & @uss&a7s econom' sta3le no c(ance of collapse A%oman&s 1/7 +pecialist in -ussian Gconomics at Forbes (/ar4, 7hy -ussiaAs Gconomy CsnAt =oin: 9o 2ollapse, !$E$!",
Forbes, http#$$%%%&forbes&com$sites$mar4adomanis$2 !"$ !$ E$%hy(russias(economy(isnt(:oin:(to(collapse$2$*$$7K ;atin: -ussia^s economy is a full(time 'ob for many people& O%en /atthe%s in 0e%s%ee4 is perhaps the most colorful of the bunch,

C8ve been follo%in: -ussia very closely for about a decade no%, and C8ve simply lost count of the number of analyses C8ve read ar:uin: that the end is ni:h and that the economy8s final implosion is mere months a%ay& 9hese articles vary :reatly in Muality, but the basic indictment of -ussia8s
but the difference bet%een /atthe%s and other 7estern 'ournalists is primarily one of de:ree not of 4ind& economy consists of a number of actually Muite reasonable observations on the country8s corruption, red tape, and over(reliance on natural resources& ;o%ever, after :ettin: decimated durin: the %orse days of the financial crisis, -ussia8s economy has been

plu::in: alon: %ith steady and unremar4able :ro%th in the "(@I ran:e , hardly %orld beatin: but actually faster than almost every country in the G3& As more time has passed and -ussia8s economy has defied predictions by continuin: to not collapse, C8ve become increasin:ly convinced that its economic stability has been some%hat underrated and that,

Nuclear War MICHIGAN 7WS 2013 32/221 despite its many faults, its basic economic model is Muite li4ely to endure throu:h the short and medium term s&
C certainly don8t thin4 that -ussia is :oin: to become some sort of economic he:emon, but it seems far more li4ely than not that it %ill evolve :radually, and not throu:h some titanic rupture or revolutionary upheaval& 1ut my hunches and inclinations aren8t very :ood evidence, so C thou:ht C %ould put a fe% charts to:ether %hich sho% %hy C thin4 that -ussia8s economy is basically :oin: to stay stable over the ne5t several years and that it8s a hu:e

mista4e to predict a cataclysm %hich %ill s%eep a%ay the dread Putin& !&9he price of 1rent crude has stayed remar4ably robust
despite chronic economic %ea4ness in the developed %orld& C suppose it8s possible that the G3 %ill never emer:e from its current doldrums, but C thin4 that the developed %orld %ill eventually :et out of its fun4 and start to :ro% a:ain& 7hen it does that :ro%th %ill li4ely drive the price of oil even hi:her, or at least prevent it from :oin: much lo%er& 2& -ussia still has very lar:e forei:n reserves, some of the lar:est in the entire

%orld Althou:h you often hear, as in /atthe%s8 piece, that the -ussians used to be responsible %ith their oil money, no% they8re become totally rec4less and irresponsible, -ussia still has very lar:e forei:n reserves that amount to almost 2DI of its =6P& 0ote the similarity bet%een the oil price :raph and -ussia8s forei:n reserves, their shapes are almost identical 7hile the utility of forei:n reserves can often be overstated, they can be very handy in avertin: economic catastrophes, and, as you mi:ht e5pect, the -ussians dre% heavily on their forei:n reserves durin: the %orst days of the 2 B( ? crisis& C thin4 that the reserves provide a cushion that %ill help to shield -ussia from a future shoc4, such as a rapid and massive decline in the price of oil& Of course there8s still the chance that
-ussia %ill suffer a slo% and :radual decline in competitiveness, but %hat C8m pushin: bac4 a:ainst is not that ar:ument but the ar:ument that the %hole house of cards is :oin: to collapse in the ne5t couple of years& "& 9he -ussian :overnment still runs a bud:et surplus, and its

spendin: as a percenta:e of =6P is not very hi:h From January(October 2 !2 -ussia ran a bud:et surplus of about !&@I, smaller than the 2 !! fi:ure ("&2I* but a surplus nonetheless& -ussia8s total level of :overnment spendin: (about "2I of =6P* hardly seems outra:eous or unsustainable& Additionally, despite a lot of loose and foolish tal4 from the -ussian defense ministry about it loomin: re( armament campai:n, -ussia8s bud:et spendin: is more %ei:hted to%ards the social sphere than the military industrial comple5& 2ourtesy of the =aidar institute, here8s a :raph sho%in: %here -ussia8s consolidated :overnment spendin: %as directed in the
first ten months of 2 !2# 9he =aidar institute is hardly a >remlin outfit, indeed the overall tone of the report to %hich C lin4ed is actually Muite :loomy. and critical of the authorities, and considerin: its trac4 record C don8t thin4 that it %ould have spun the numbers in a more pro(Putin direction& 7hen analy)in: any country8s bud:et posture you need to focus on %here the money is actually bein: spent& 7hile there8s been an a%ful lot of tal4 about comprehensively re(armin: the -ussian military, the actual level of spendin: remains relatively small and %ell %ithin the country8s ability to pay& 9he purse(strin:s are clearly some%hat looser than they used to be, but a Muic4 :lance at -ussia8s bud:et certainly doesn8t :ive the impression of a totally rec4less and debauched approach& @& -ussian unemployment is at or near a post(+oviet record lo% -ussia8s labor mar4et isn8t e5actly a model for anyone else, but its ar:uably more robust no% than its ever been before& C thin4 that this %ill act as a sort of stabili)in: influence in its o%n ri:ht, but, more importantly, it mi:ht allo% the :overnment to feel comfortable enou:h to do some tin4erin: and implement a fe% moderate reforms& 1asically, the :overnment is more li4ely to underta4e some modest liberali)ation if the labor mar4et is healthy and it8s confident that people %ill be able to find 'obs than if the unemployment rate is already trendin: up%ards (unemployment is obviously hi:hly politically sensitive in performance le:itimacy re:imes li4e -ussia8s*& Ket me be clear in sayin: that C do not thin4 that any of the above demonstrates that %e should all become li4e -ussiaX -ussia8s economy has a lot of serious problems, and it %ill eventually have to :o throu:h some serious structural chan:es if it %ants to remain relevant& 9he :ro%th in the non(oil deficit is particularly %orryin:, and the >remlin %ill need to address that in the near future before it :ets any further out of hand& ;o%ever, based on its post(crisis performance, the -ussian economy seems to be fle5ible enou:h to deal %ith a

number of serious challen:es& Ct %ould be a bi: mista4e to allo% distaste for Putin to cloud 'ud:ement about the li4ely course of -ussia8s
economy, %hich seems li4e it %ill continue to e5perience modest :ro%th in the short and medium terms&

@uss&a7s econom' "&ll 3e sta3le t(rou)( 2030 at least Itar ,ass 1/30 -ussian 0e%s A:ency citin: :overnment officials (-ussian economy to retain stable :ro%th rate till 2

" ( economics ministry, !$" $!", http#$$%%%&itar(tass&com$en$c"F$F"D!E &html*$$7K 9he -ussian economy %ill remain stable up to 2 " , but it %ill be :ro%in: by no more than four percent a year, as follo%s from the Gconomic 6evelopment /inistryAs lon:(term social and economic development forecast& +uch an option, accordin: to the document, %ill be possible in case of the innovation(based scenario& =ro%th %ill be stable& Ct %ill reduce from four percent a year (in 2 !D* to "&B percent by 2 2F(2 " , and investment :ro%th %ill be :radually reducin: from E&" percent to @&B percent by 2 2D(2 " & On the %hole the scenario is

characteri)ed by a :reater investment vector of economic :ro%th and -ussiaAs firmer foothold in the %orld economy& Ct relies on the creation of advanced transport infrastructures and a competitive sector of hi:h(tech industries and an economy of
4no%led:e alon:side the up:radin: of the ener:y and ra% materials e5traction comple5& 9he scenario, accordin: to the document, envisa:es

conversion of the innovative factors into a leadin: en:ine of economic :ro%th and a brea4throu:h to%ards raisin: the effectiveness of human resources in 2 2 (2 22 , %hich %ould ma4e it possible to improve the social parameters of
development& Private and public spendin: on the health service %ill :ro% from @&F percent of the =6P in 2 ! to E&! percent of the =6P in 2 " respectively, and on education, from D&2 percent to E percent of the =6P respectively& 9he avera:e :ro%th rate of the -ussian economy

is estimated at @&! percent in 2 !"(2 "

, the effects of li4ely crisis shoc4s in the %orld economy e5cluded& 9he basic scenario predicts a moderate :ro%th in the prices of crude oil and other resources ( by about one percent a year in real terms in 2 !F(2 !B& 9he price of the 3rals blend in 2 2 %ill be at !!F dollars per barrel, and in 2 " , at !F@ dollars per barrel& Cn real terms the price of oil in 2 !"(2 " %ill stay %ithin a ran:e of ? (!! dollars per barrel in 2 ! prices& 9he price of :as e5ported to non(2C+ countries in real terms is estimated at "@ dollars per one thousand cubic meters, %hich is above the 2 ! (2 !! level& 9he -ussian economy %ill be able to achieve and e5ceed the five(percent level Prime /inister 6mitry /edvedev has identified only after 2 !F, and on the condition the country %ill opt for an accelerated development scenario and eases the bud:et rule& 9he tar:eted, accelerated :ro%th scenario also envisa:es the solution of issues the president outlined in his decrees last /ay for creatin: and up:radin: 2D million hi:h efficiency 'obs by 2 2 , increasin: the volume of investments to no less than 2D percent of the =6P by 2 !D and to 2E percent by 2 !B, increasin: the share of hi:h(tech and research(intense products in the =6P by !&" times in 2 !B a:ainst the 2 !! level, and raisin: the labor productivity by 2 !B by !&D times and the level of real %a:es by !&F(!&E times by 2 !B& 9he =6P avera:e :ro%th rates under that option are to :o

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up to D&@ percent, and -ussiaAs share in the %orld economy is to increase to D&" percent of the %orld =6P & 9he Gconomic 6evelopment /inistry has also drafted a conservative scenario, %hich is characteri)ed by moderate economic :ro%th rates (no more than "&2 percent* on the basis of active moderni)ation of the fuel and ener:y and ra% materials sectors of the -ussian economy, %hile a certain la::in: behind of the civil hi:h(tech and medium(tech sectors %ill remain& 3nder that scenario the economic :ro%th rate %ill be declinin: from "&E percent in the period endin: in 2 !D to 2&D percent by 2 2F(2 " , %hile investment :ro%th %ill fall from E percent to "&F percent respectively& 9he -ussian economy by

2 " %ill :ro% only !

percent, the real incomes of the population %ill double , and -ussiaAs share in the %orld =6P %ill

reduce from "&B percent in 2 !2 to "&F percent in 2 " &

@uss&a can "&t(stan% o&l collapse )o+ernment reser+es an% 0? cr&s&s pro+e Bu9m&n */12 -eprter at the -ussia and Cndia report (Gconomic resur:ence# 1lendin: :ro%th %ith stability,
http#$$tinyurl&com$mDMD@4u ( replacin: really lon: :oo:le url*$$7K

F$!2$!",

-ussia has moved beyond the +oviet collapse to script a ne% story of economic resur:ence & 3nli4e in the !?? s, %hen the industry came to a standstill and -ussia8s 4ey ban4s %ent bust , the country is no% better placed to %eather the :lobal slo%do%n than its %estern nei:hbours& Cn 2 ?, the economy shran4 by almost BI, thus alarmin: many economists, %ho feared a repeat of the !??B crash& 1ut there %as no :loom and doom of the !?? s, than4s to a decade of carefully storin: up of reserves earned from ener:y e5ports & -ussia has learned to live %ithin its means, thus tri::erin: a resur:ence of :ro%th& For !" years, the :overnment did not allo% a bud:et deficit, and only last year, around the time of the presidential election, did federal e5penditure e5ceed revenues by &!I of =6P& -ussia can no% 'ustifiably boast that its public e5ternal debt is amon: the lo%est in the %orld & Accordin: to 9imur 0i:matullin, an e5pert at the analytical a:ency Cnvest2afe, as of April !, debt stood at 'ust [@?&B billion J a drop in the buc4et compared %ith a national =6P of appro5imately [2 trillion& 7hile oil and :as account for more than D I of the bud:et income (based on 2 !2 fi:ures*, thus ma4in: public finances still sensitive to fluctuations in %orld commodity prices, the country has been able to save lar:e reserves for a rainy day& 9hese reserves cushioned the blo% of the 2 B(2 ? crisis, despite a fourfold drop in %orld ener:y prices& 9he ratin: a:encies have responded positively, and moved up -ussia8s soverei:n ratin: to investment
:rade& /oody8s assi:ned a ratin: of 1aa! %ith a stable outloo4, %hile Fitch and +TP opted for 111 (stable*& -ussia is a more profitable investment today than at some point in the rosy future %hen the measures adopted to improve the investment climate and economic :ro%th %ill 4ic4 in, >arina Artemyeva, head of analysis at the /osco%(based 0ational -atin: A:ency, told -C1-& Accordin: to the :overnment8s pro'ection, the

share of oil and :as revenues %ill :radually decrease to B&DI of =6P by 2 !D, do%n from !

&DI no%& /ost important, three( Muarters of -ussians trust the country8s ban4s %ith their savin:s& 9he -ussian stoc4 mar4et is another success story& Kess than 2 years since its foundin:, total mar4et capitalisation stands at 2 trillion rubles ([E billion*, or "2I of =6P& 9hat8s do%n on 2 B, but the :overnment aims to build this bac4 upto ! I of =6P by 2 !B& /osco% has also set itself the ambitious :oal of becomin: one of the %orld8s top ten financial centers& Cn February, the /osco% +toc4 G5chan:e created throu:h the mer:er of the /osco% Cnterban4 2urrency G5chan:e and the -ussian 9radin: +ystem held its o%n CPO, valuin: the combined e5chan:e at [@&2 billion, comparable in value to Kondon and 9o4yo& 9he service sector has also bur:eoned

rapidly& 9oday, ?I of retail sales are :enerated by the private sector, and small business accounts for more than half of turnover, %hile or:anised retail chains no% account for 22I of sales& 9he C9 sector is sur:in:, %ith -ussia8s C9 e5ports e5pected to outstrip
its arms e5ports by the end of the decade& 9he country has better broadband access than other economies %ithin the 1-C2+ :roup& Cn 2 !2, the online economy :re% by " I, %ith Cnternet(related business accountin: for @&FI of =6P&

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>S -con H IA,J Compet&t&+enessK

>S compet&t&+eness (&)( an% res&l&ent f&nanc&al sector reco+er'F tec( &nno+at&onF fore&)n &n+estmentF an% out2compet&n) C(&na <ar%'F 7/4 1A in Gconomics, +tanford 3niversity and /ember, 2FA Cnstitute (0icholas, Cs the 3+A 1ac4 on 9opH ;uman Gvents /oney, E$?$!", http#$$%%%&humanevents&com$2 !"$ E$ ?$is(the(usa(bac4(on( top$*$$+P Amon: the :lobal investin: set, the 3&+& stoc4 mar4et is red hot& Amon: the "? :lobal stoc4 mar4ets C follo% on a daily basis, the 3nited +tates is no% the 0o& 2 performer year to date J trailin: only Japan& After bein: deni:rated as the the best house in a bad nei:hborhood only a year a:o, it too4 only !2 months of :lobal stoc4 mar4et trouncin: returns for the 3&+& economy to be vie%ed as a very :ood house in a very bad nei:hborhood& 9he recent economic data support the improved sentiment to%ard the 3nited +tates& Qehicle sales are the hi:hest in the 3nited +tates since 2 E& -isin: house prices have ta4en !&E million Americans out of ne:ative eMuity& ;ousehold %ealth is at an all(time hi:h& 3&+& manufacturin: orders and production are increasin: even as activity slo%s in Gurope, Katin America and 2hina& 9he 3nited +tates is on course to produce more oil than +audi Arabia by the end of this decade& Ct already produces more natural :as than -ussia& Gven employment is loo4in: better, %ith the private sector addin: over 2 , 'obs in June for the third strai:ht month& And in %hat %as one of the most underreported stories ever, the 3nited +tates re:ained the 0o& ! spot in C/68s annual =lobal 2ompetitiveness report than4s to a reboundin: financial sector, an abundance of technolo:ical innovation and successful companies& 9he 3&+& economy8s star has risen even as 2hina8s has faded& Accordin: to A9 >earney, the 3nited +tates 'ust replaced 2hina as the %orld8s top spot for forei:n direct investment& Japan8s 9oyota, =ermany8s +iemens, and, yes, even the 2hinese themselves are pourin: money into the 3nited +tates& 9he reasonH 9he 3nited +tates8 common lan:ua:e, common currency, social stability and developed le:al system ma4e doin: business there a ca4e%al4 compared to 2hina& GMually importantly, the cost of production bet%een :oods in 2hina and the 3nited +tates has fallen dramatically& 9he 2hinese are no lon:er %illin: to cran4 out 7al(/art8s 4nic4 4nac4s for a dollar a day& 9he 3nited +tates is a lar:e country and some re:ions are clearly doin: better than others& Increase% s(ale an% natural )as pro%uct&on ensure t(e res&l&ence of >S econom&c compet&t&+eness $ra%le'F */17 Founder, Cnstitute for Gner:y -esearch, Ad'unct +cholar, 2ato Cnstitute and 2ompetitiveness Gnterprise Cnstitute, and Qisitin: Fello%, Cnstitute of Gconomic Affairs (-obert, Jr&, 9he American Oil T =as Cndustry Cs -escuin: 9he Obama Gconomy, Forbes, F$!E, http#$$%%%&forbes&com$sites$robertbradley$2 !"$ F$!E$the(american(oil(:as(industry(is(rescuin:(the( obama(economy$*$$+P Cn 2omebac4# America8s 0e% Gconomic 1oom, author 2harles /orris refers to the ne% Y(factor, the American ener:y advanta:e& 9he :ame chan:erJshale oil and :as technolo:y and productionJhas put the 3nited +tates and 2anada in the %orld8s leadin: economic saddle& 0oted e5pert 6aniel Per:in concurs& Abundant lo%(cost ener:y is stimulatin: a revival of manufacturin: in the 3&+& as %ell as %ell as increased American economic competitiveness, he states, counterin: %hat other%ise is a time of stubbornly hi:h unemployment& Pes, technolo:ically unloc4ed oil and :as has created an ener:y revolution and industrial bri:ht spot in the other%ise dim Obama era& 1y 2 2 , accordin: to Per:in, shale :as alone is e5pected to support @ million 'obs (versus !&E million today*& And the 3nited +tates is e5pected to surpass +audi Arabia as the %orld8s leadin: oil e5porter, accordin: to the Cnternational Gner:y A:ency& 0atural :as, mean%hile, is on course to overta4e coal as the second lar:est source of ener:y %orld%ide by 2 2D& -ene%ables li4e %ind, solar, and ethanol are no substitute for the above boom of carbon(based ener:y& Cn 2 !!, rene%able ener:y accounted for less than ! percent of total 3&+& consumptionJabout the same as si5ty years

Nuclear War MICHIGAN 7WS 2013 35/221 a:o& And should all(out :overnment subsidies and mandates recede or end, all rene%ables e5cept for hydropo%er %ill shrin4 precipitously& 9hat8s %hy the sur:in: supply of natural :as, the least carbon(intensive of traditional ener:y sources, is %elcomed by all e5cept a deep(ecolo:y frin:e& 0atural :as produces half as much carbon as coal and a third the Muantity of nitro:en o5ides& 9he more prevalent the use of natural :as, the cleaner the air across America& >S compet&t&+eness &s )ro"&n) an% res&l&ent tec(nolo)' sector an% s(ale pro%uct&on S(en)F */? President, Fun: =lobal Cnstitute (Andre%, 7hy the 3+ Gconomy 7ill 2ontinue to Kead the 2ompetition, +outh 2hina /ornin: Post, http#$$%%%&scmp&com$comment$insi:ht( opinion$article$!2DDEE2$%hy(us(economy(%ill(continue(lead(competition*$$+P 9ravellin: in the 3+ this %ee4 reminded me ho% fundamentally resilient and competitive its economy is& 7ashin:ton did not sho% any si:ns of recession, %ith the perfect blend of cool summer evenin:s and youn: students and old tourists %anderin: around& 9he C/6 %orld competitiveness ran4in:s revealed that the 3+ is once a:ain 0o !, follo%ed by +%it)erland and ;on: >on:& Asia(Pacific economies performed %ell, %ith ! in the top " & 9a4in: a !D(year comparison, the C/6 ran4in:s sho%ed that the %inners since !??E are 2hina, =ermany, Csrael, >orea, /e5ico, Poland, +%eden, +%it)erland and 9ai%an& 9hese :ained five places or more in the ran4in:s& ;o% stron:ly is the 3+ economy recoverin:H Opinions seem divided& 3+ Federal -eserve chairman 1en 1ernan4eAs testimony to 2on:ress last month su::ested that the recovery is on trac4, %ith :ross domestic product :ro%th of 2&D per cent in the first Muarter this year, compared %ith !&ED per cent durin: 2 !2& 9he unemployment rate of E&D per cent in April %as &D percenta:e points lo%er than last summer& 2onsumer inflation has come do%n to ! per cent in the year to /arch, althou:h the consensus on lon:(term inflation seems to be in the 2 per cent ran:e& 9he :ood ne%s so far is that the housin: mar4et is improvin:& 9he latest flo% of funds data su::ests that the net %orth of households and the nonfinancial business sector improved fairly stron:ly in 2 !2 and 2 !!, on the bac4 of improved housin: affordability and a stoc4 mar4et recovery, as a result of Muantitative easin:& 9he bi::est head%inds a:ainst the 3+ economy are the %ea4 e5port mar4et to Gurope and the lar:e fiscal overhan:& +tate :overnments have increased local ta5es and cut state spendin:& Cn the past four years, they have cut E , 'obs& 9he fiscal austerity drive is be:innin: to bite, %ith the 2on:ressional 1ud:et Office estimatin: that the bud:et deficit la%s %ould cut =6P :ro%th by !&D percenta:e points this year& 9his %as %hy 1ernan4e felt that %ith short(term interest rates already close to )ero, <monetary policy does not have the capacity to fully offset an economic head%ind of this ma:nitude&< 9he real stren:th of the 3+ economy is that it remains the lar:est and most technolo:ically po%erful in the %orld, %ith cuttin:(ed:e superiority in creative science, computers, medicine, aerospace, military eMuipment, and superior research and development s4ills in top universities and research institutes& Ct is also a mar4et(oriented economy, %ith 3+ companies accountin: for !"2 out of the Fortune =lobal D companies, and four out of the :lobal top ! companies by revenue& 9he :ame chan:er for 3+ competitiveness is not 'ust the revolution in technolo:y, but also the rise of shale oil& Cmprovements in the frac4in: technolo:y to e5tract oil and :as out of shale, developed mostly by the private sector, threaten to chan:e the :lobal ener:y landscape& 7ith this technolo:y, and the hi:h level of shale oil resources in the 3+ and 2anada, 0orth America %ould become not only self(sufficient in ener:y production, but also a net ener:y e5porter& Oil prices are already under pressure because CraM is be:innin: to revitalise production& 6espite the retreat from the use of nuclear ener:y, the latest Cnternational Gner:y A:ency report, published last 0ovember, su::ested that the %orld ener:y outloo4 %ill chan:e dramatically in the face of improvements in efficiency, continued :ro%th in the use of solar and %ind po%er, and unconventional :as production& 1y 2 !E, the 3+ is pro'ected to become that lar:est :lobal oil producer, overta4in: +audi Arabia, and to:ether %ith improvements in transport ener:y use, the 3+ %ould become a net oil e5porter by 2 " & 9his %ill have a profound impact on 3+ competitiveness and the :eopolitical situation& First, the 3+ can either choose to ta5 the ne%found ener:y source to reduce its fiscal debt or use the lo%er ener:y prices to boost its competitiveness& 1y comparison, 2hina, Cndia and the /iddle Gast %ould account for over F per cent of the increase in ener:y demand& 9his means 2hinese and Cndian enterprises %ould continue to have hi:her ener:y costs than 3+

Nuclear War MICHIGAN 7WS 2013 3*/221 companies, despite cheaper labour costs& Gven cheap labour costs are no lon:er a real advanta:e %ith the rise of robotics and "6 printin:, %hich %ill enable home production instead of relyin: on imports& 9he real upside for the 3+ is that it can be much more hands(off in the /iddle Gast political Mua:mire, %hereas the ener:y(dependent countries li4e 2hina, Cndia and Japan %ould be more affected by the re:ionAs politics& ;ence, if a stable and stron: country li4e 9ur4ey can also :et into turmoil, the :ame chan:e could be much more profound& 6espite its many internal challen:es, the 3+ remains a haven of political stability in an increasin:ly turbulent %orld& >S compet&t&+eness (&)( no" (ealt(' f&nanc&al an% tec( sectors Moo%le'F 5/30 Associate Producer, 2012 and 1A in ;istory, 3niversity of 2ambrid:e (>iran, -obust 2omebac4 for 3+ 2ompetitiveness, Gurope +talls, 2012, D$" $!", http#$$%%%&cnbc&com$id$! EE2DE2*$$+P 9he 7orld 2ompetitiveness -an4in:s, compiled by the C/6 business school in Kausanne, identified the 3&+&, +%it)erland, ;on: >on: and +%eden as the top four countries, %hile Guropean nations have lost :round ( not 'ust over the last year, but over the last !F years& Professor +tephane =arelli, director of the C/6 7orld 2ompetitiveness 2enter, said this feeds the on:oin: austerity discussion& <7hile the euro )one remains stalled, the robust comebac4 of the 3&+& to the top of the competitiveness ran4in:s, and better ne%s from Japan, have revived the austerity debate,< he said& <+tructural reforms are unavoidable, but :ro%th remains a prereMuisite for competitiveness& Cn addition, the harshness of austerity measures too often anta:oni)es the population&< GuropeAs Kosers Accordin: to =arelli, the :olden rules of competitiveness are <manufacture, diversify, e5port, invest in infrastructure, educate, support +/Gs, enforce fiscal discipline, and above all maintain social cohesion&< 9he last point is a clear reference to the demonstrations over the past fe% years in =reece, Creland, +pain, Portu:al, 2yprus and beyond& 7hile +%it)erland, +%eden, =ermany and 0or%ay are <shinin: successes,< accordin: to the C/6 report, the rest of Gurope has stru::led& /ore than half of the <losers< ( countries that have fallen by five or more places since !??E ( are from continent& 9he 3&>& has fallen nine places, from ?th in !??E to !Bth in 2 !", %hile France has slipped si5 places over the same period, do%n to 2Bth& 9he C/6 %arned that Ctaly, =reece, +pain and Portu:al have not diversified their economies or reined in spendin: enou:h, and that Creland and Cceland need to have sustained competitiveness, emphasi)in: that uncontrolled fast e5pansion could lead to disaster a:ain& 9he 7inners Koo4in: at the most competitive nations, the 3&+& moved up from second last year to first once a:ain in 2 !" than4s to its improvin: financial sector, stron: technolo:ical innovation and successful companies& >S compet&t&+eness &s res&l&ent rumors of slo" reco+er' e1a))erate% 3' pess&m&sts ,(e -conom&stF 3/27 (2heer up, "$2E$!", http#$$%%%&economist&com$ne%s$special(report$2!DE"22?( political(:ridloc4(may(be(bad(americas(economy(says(ed%ard(mcbride*$$+P Cs this a country that can still :et bi: thin:s doneH as4ed the head of the 3+ 2hamber of 2ommerce, a business lobby, in January& 9his special report %ill ar:ue that the ans%er is yesJbut only if you loo4 beyond the paralysis in 7ashin:ton& 9o prove it, it %ill e5amine the factors %hich are the source of the most hand( %rin:in:# innovation, ener:y, education, immi:ration, infrastructure and re:ulation& 9hese help determine the number and productivity of America8s %or4ers, and thus ho% Muic4ly the economy %ill :ro% in the lon: runJ the most basic measure of competitiveness& On every count, despite :larin: problems, the outloo4 is less blea4 than the pessimists maintain& 1ottom up 9hat is partly because they overstate their case& For instance, rumours of the death of American innovation are e5a::erated# the country is spendin: as much of its output on -T6 as it ever has, and continues to come up %ith dramatic brea4throu:hs, such as frac4in: for oil and :as& Ct still to%ers over emer:in: :iants li4e 2hina in crucial matters such as the Muality of its research universities and respect for intellectual(property ri:hts& ;o%ever, the main reason for cheer is that beyond the 1elt%ay no one is %aitin: for the federal :overnment to fi5 the economy& At the re:ional and local level America is already reformin: and innovatin: vi:orously&

Nuclear War MICHIGAN 7WS 2013 37/221 Kocal officials are competin: viciously to lure mi:rants and investment& 9hey are usin: every ima:inable enticement, from scrappin: income ta5 to buildin: more bi4e paths& 1ut they are also embar4in: on far( reachin: reforms& Gducation, for e5ample, is bein: turned upside do%n in the most comprehensive overhaul in livin: memory& On infrastructure, mayors and :overnors are :raspin: the nettle 2on:ress %ill not, by comin: up %ith ne% fundin: mechanisms& 7ashin:ton is not completely absent from these chan:es (/r Obama has made thin:s easier for immi:rantsR 2on:ress had a hand in the school reforms*& 1ut the overall picture is of revolution from the bottom up, rather than the top do%n& 9his has its advanta:es# the states yet a:ain are provin: themselves laboratories for e5perimentation& Pet its also means that America8s economic fi:htbac4 is patchy and inconsistent& 9he 3nited +tates could become far more competitive far more Muic4ly if 2on:ress punched its %ei:ht& >S econom&c compet&t&+eness lo" an% %ecl&n&n) r&s&n) %e3t an% (&)( unemplo'ment ,(omasF 7/12 Journalist, 0ational 6efense (+teff, Au:ustine# 6ecline in 3&+& 2ompetitiveness 2reates +ecurity Qulnerabilities, 0ational 6efense, http#$$%%%&nationaldefensema:a)ine&or:$blo:$lists$posts$post&asp5HC6S!2 "*$$+P Cn the !?D s, the 3nited +tates rose to the top of the %orld in terms of economic competitiveness as other countries %ere still recoverin: in the aftermath of 7orld 7ar CC& ;o%ever, it is no lon:er in first place, a recent study stated& 7e had been dynamic, innovative, and entrepreneurial J it %as those other countries that %ere all tan:led up in red tape and delay, but no% it is us, said /ichael Porter, a professor at ;arvard 1usiness +chool and a leadin: authority on competitive strate:y& A 2 !2 study by the 7orld Gconomic Forum sho%ed that out of !@@ countries, the 3&+& ran4ed seventh in :lobal competitiveness& 9his %as a dramatic drop from the first(place spot held by the 3nited +tates up until 2 !!& 9he top spot is no% held by +%it)erland& 9he 3&+& definition of competitiveness is the ability to succeed in :lobal mar4et places %hile simultaneously raisin: the livin: standards of the avera:e American, Porter said& 9hese problems reflect the structural challen:es on the 3nited +tates that have been a :eneration in the ma4in:, said Jan -iv4in, also a professor at the ;arvard 1usiness +chool& 9he issues are not 'ust a han:over of the :reat recession, he said June ! at an American +ecurity Pro'ect panel held in 7ashin:ton, 6&2& 9he risin: national debt and a :ro%in: pool of Americans no lon:er loo4in: for %or4 are part of the problem, accordin: to a 2 !2 American +ecurity Pro'ect report, American 2ompetitiveness# A /atter of 0ational +ecurity& +tudies conducted by the ;arvard school yielded similar results to the A+P report, the professors said& >S compet&t&+eness lo" structural econom&c pro3lems !orterF 7/4 1ishop 7illiam Ka%rence 3niversity Professor, ;arvard 1usiness +chool (/ichael G&, -estorin: 3&+& 2ompetitiveness, 9estimony before ;ouse 2ommittee on +mall 1usiness, 3nited +tates ;ouse of -epresentatives, E$?$!", http#$$smallbusiness&house&:ov$uploadedfiles$E(?(2 !"LporterLtestimony( L E E!"Lclean&pdf*$$+P 7;A9 C+ 2O/PG9C9CQG0G++H A country such as the 3nited +tates is competitive if the companies operatin: there can compete successfully in the :lobal economy %hile simultaneously raisin: livin: standards for the avera:e American& e 9o be competitive over time, the 3nited +tates reMuires a business environment that enables businesses and citi)ens to be hi:hly productive over the lon: run& e Cncreasin: productivity over the lon: run should be the central :oal of economic policy& 9;G 3&+& C+ FA2C0= A KO0=(9G-/ +9-3293-AK P-O1KG/ 9he 3nited +tates is facin: a lon: term competitiveness problem, not 'ust a cyclical do%nturn& e 9he challen:e is competitiveness, not 'obs per se& e A number of disturbin: trends emer:ed %ell before the =reat -ecession, pointin: to a structural problem& e 9he American 'obs machine be:an sputterin: %ell before the =reat -ecession& e Cndustries e5posed to international competition sa% almost no 'ob :ro%th in the !?? s and 2 s&

Nuclear War MICHIGAN 7WS 2013 3?/221 e 9he 3&+& labor force participation rate pea4ed in !??E, sta:nated and started to fall in 2 !& Ct has fallen to a level not seen since the early !?B s& e -eal household income be:an sta:natin: %ell before the =reat -ecession& e +ince 2 B, the 3nited +tates has fallen in all competitiveness and business ran4in:s, relative to the rest of the %orld& >S compet&t&+eness lo" an% sl&pp&n) furt(er pol&t&cal %&strust an% lac# of &n+estor conf&%ence GoffF 12 -esearch Associate, ;erita:e Foundation (Gmily, 3&+& Falls in 7orld Gconomic 2ompetitiveness -an4in:s, Foundry 1lo:, ?$2E, http#$$blo:&herita:e&or:$2 !2$ ?$ E$u(s(falls(in(%orld(economic( competitiveness(ran4in:s$*$$+P 9he 3nited +tates8 competitive ed:e in the :lobal economy is not %hat it used to be& 9he 7orld Gconomic Forum (7GF* reported that the 3&+& dropped from fifth to seventh placeJthe fourth consecutive year it has fallen in the ran4in:s& 2hief amon: the reasons is the one(t%o punch of s4yroc4etin: debt and uncertainty amon: businesses that 7ashin:ton %ill address the country8s fiscal and economic problems& =ee, that sounds familiar& 0ational debt recently cruised past the [!F trillion mar4 and is continuin: its ascent to%ard the current debt limit of [!F&"?@ trillion& Ct has already eclipsed the si)e of the entire 3&+& economy& -eachin: the debt limit a:ain %ill serve as a :rave reminder that 7ashin:ton8s spendin: spree and failure to reform entitlement pro:rams that are drivin: spendin: is %rea4in: havoc on the bud:et& 9hat not only threatens to saddle future :enerations %ith crushin: levels of debtJand ta5es to pay for itJbut also compromises the health of the 3&+& economy ri:ht no%& +uch irresponsibility in 7ashin:tonJmanifest in over(spendin:, hu:e and chronic bud:et deficits, and massive debtJdiminishes the business community8s trust that the :overnment can and %ill :et the country8s fiscal house in order& 7hether it is a failure to stave off 9a5ma:eddon8s ta5 hi4es no%, rein in federal spendin:, or reprioriti)e the seMuestration8s automatic spendin: cuts scheduled to deliver a serious blo% to our national defense, 7ashin:ton is only :eneratin: the bad 4ind of uncertaintyJand lots of it& 1ecause there is such distrust of political leaders and institutions, and :overnment is :rossly misusin: its resources, businesses, investors, and families feel their hands are tied& 9epid economic :ro%th resultsJa point %e see reinforced by the latest in a sle% of mediocre 'obs reports& 9he ;erita:e Foundation8s o%n Cnde5 of Gconomic Freedom tells a similar story# 9he 3&+& dropped to tenth place in 2 !2 and has been rele:ated from a free status to mostly free& As the Cnde5 authors %rite# -estorin: the 3&+& economy to the status of a free economy %ill reMuire si:nificant policy chan:es to reduce the si)e of :overnment, overhaul the ta5 system, and transform costly entitlement pro:rams& 7hile certain measures of competitiveness in the 3&+& remain stron:, the overall trend is headed in the %ron: direction& Cf for some reason 2on:ress and the President needed additional ur:in: to address these escalatin: and unaddressed %ea4nesses, as the 7GF report calls them, this year8s report should do 'ust that& >S compet&t&+eness lo" an% %ecl&n&n) pol&t&cal %&sputes an% 3us&ness pro3lems @ampellF 12 Gconomics -eporter, 0e% Por4 9imes (2atherine, A Koo4 1ehind the 3&+& 6ecline in =lobal 2ompetitiveness, 0e% Por4 9imes, ?$F, http#$$economi5&blo:s&nytimes&com$2 !2$ ?$ F$a(loo4(behind(the( u(s(decline(in(:lobal(competitiveness$HLrS *$$+P For the fourth consecutive year, +%it)erland is the most competitive economy in the %orld, accordin: to a ran4in: from the 7orld Gconomic Forum& And, for the fourth consecutive year, the 3nited +tates fell in the ran4in:s J lar:ely because of %orsenin: criticism of the American :overnment J and is no% in seventh place& 9he interactive map belo% sho%s ho% each of the !@@ countries analy)ed ran4ed& 2lic4 on any country to see ho% it stac4s up on different dimensions of competitiveness& 9he 7orld Gconomic Forum defines competitiveness as the set of institutions, policies, and factors that determine the level of productivity of a country and thereby lead to sustainable :ro%th& 9he report :raded economies based on an inde5 of cate:ories li4e over(re:ulation, property ri:hts, ta5 burdens, transparency and trust%orthiness of both the :overnment and the financial sector, infrastructure, inflation conditions, the health and educational attainment of the population, access to technolo:y, and research and development&

Nuclear War MICHIGAN 7WS 2013 34/221 9he main reasons the 3nited +tates has been slippin: in the ran4in:s appear related to distrust of and lac4 of confidence in :overnment leadership& ;ere8s an e5cerpt from the reportR the numbers in parentheses refer to America8s ran4in: on that cate:ory in relation to all !@@ countries# 9he business community continues to be critical to%ard public and private institutions (@!st*& Cn particular, its trust in politicians is not stron: (D@th*, perhaps not surprisin: in li:ht of recent political disputes that threaten to push the country bac4 into recession throu:h automatic spendin: cuts& 1usiness leaders also remain concerned about the :overnment8s ability to maintain arm8s(len:th relationships %ith the private sector (D?th*, and consider that the :overnment spends its resources relatively %astefully (EFth*& A lac4 of macroeconomic stability continues to be the country8s :reatest area of %ea4ness (!!!th, do%n from ? th last year*& >S compet&t&+eness lo" an% %ecreas&n) lo"er pro%uct&+&t' an% &ncrease% pr&+ate sector re)ulat&on .1(olmF 12 1A, Pale 3niversity (9ed, ;ave Cncreased -e:ulations /ade the 3&+& Kess 2ompetitiveH Penn Pro:ram on -e:ulation, ! $! , https#$$%%%&la%&upenn&edu$blo:s$re:blo:$2 !2$! $! (o5holm(mercatus( study&html*$$+P A ne% study su::ests that increasin: re:ulation may be contributin: to a decline in American competitiveness& -eleased by the /ercatus 2enter at =eor:e /ason 3niversity, the study concludes that the 3nited +tates has become less internationally competitive as its private sector re:ulations have :ro%n more onerous& 7hile the study8s authors, economists +teven =loberman and =eor:e =eor:opoulos, do not claim to identify any causality bet%een re:ulation and competitiveness, they say they find hints of such a relationship in the available academic literature& 7hen usin: data from the Or:ani)ation for Gconomic 2o(operation and 6evelopment (OG26* to compare the 3nited +tates8 :lobal competitiveness %ith that of other mature economies, =loberman and =eor:opoulos find mi5ed results& First, they find that the 3nited +tates sa% a relative decrease in productivity :ro%th rates bet%een 2 F and 2 ! by measurin: total output a:ainst total labor input, but no such decrease %hen measurin: total output a:ainst all real inputs, includin: labor and capital investments& +econd, they find a relative decrease in :ro%th of the manufacturin: sector, but a relative increase in the :ro%th of the financial and business services sector durin: the same time period& 1ased partly on this data, the authors conclude that productivity estimates do not sho% evidence of any mar4ed deterioration of 3&+& international competitiveness, althou:h they hint at some moderation of 3&+& outperformance in recent years& On the other hand, =loberman and =eor:opoulos claim that a deterioration in American international competitiveness sho%s more clearly in the 7orld Gconomic Forum8s =lobal 2ompetitiveness -eport, %hich :athers sub'ective evaluations of :lobal competition from corporate e5ecutives& Accordin: to =loberman and =eor:opoulos8s readin: of that report, the 3nited +tates ran4ed first amon: seventeen OG26 countries for its climate for innovation in 2 D but had slipped into a tie for third by 2 !!& 9he authors believe this slide sho%s a decline in 3&+& :lobal competitiveness because innovation is lin4ed to technolo:ical chan:e, %hich is a ma'or contributor to productivity :ro%th& =loberman and =eor:opoulos cite additional surveys that lead them to conclude that mana:ers of :lobal companies are less optimistic about American international competitiveness than they have been in the past& For e5ample, responses to a survey in the 7orld 2ompetitiveness Pearboo4, produced by a +%iss business school, reflect a belief that the 3nited +tates is no% si:nificantly more threatened by relocation of both production and -T6 than it %as in 2 & Cn addition, =loberman and =eor:opoulos say that a ;arvard 1usiness +chool survey of its alumni indicates that a respondent in the 3nited +tates %as si:nificantly more li4ely to consider relocatin: business activities abroad than %as a survey respondent outside of the 3nited +tates& After concludin: that the 3nited +tates8 competitive advanta:e may have %ea4ened in the past half(decade, =loberman and =eor:opoulos proceed to investi:ate chan:es in the American re:ulatory environment& -elyin: on data collected from various survey responses, they conclude that the preponderance of evidence N su::ests that the burden of re:ulation on the private sector has increased in the 3nited +tates relative to other OG26 countries, at least since 2 D& 9he authors rely on survey data, as opposed to Muantifiable measurements, because in their vie% there is no scholarly consensus on ho% to Muantify a country8s re:ulatory re:ime&

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>S compet&t&+eness suffer&n) %ue to &nst&tut&onal fa&lures f&nanc&al pol&c' must 3e correcte% Gre)or'F 12 -esearch Fello%, ;oover Cnstitutions (Paul -oderic4, 7orld Gconomists 2onfirm AmericaAs 6ecline 3nder Obama (/a'or 3pdate# 3&+& 6o%n:raded 9%o /ore Positions 9oday*, Forbes, ?$@, http#$$%%%&forbes&com$sites$paulroderic4:re:ory$2 !2$ ?$ @$%orld(economists(confirm(americas(decline( under(obama$*$$+P American voters could %ell loo4 above our political fray to the 7orld Gconomic Forum8s =lobal 2ompetitiveness Cnde5 (=2C*& Gvery year startin: in 2 @, the =2C ran4s the %orld economies by their competitiveness, defined as the set of institutions, policies, and factors that determine the level of productivity of a country, %hich, in turn, determines the level of prosperity that can be earned by an economy& 9hrou:hout most of its short history, the =2C ran4ed the 3nited +tates first or second& At times, +%it)erland, Finland, +in:apore, 6enmar4, and Finland have :iven the 3&+& a run for its money& 9he =2C, to its credit, addresses %hat should be the core issue of any political debate in any country# ;o% %ell have country leaders mana:ed the economic and political institutions that create prosperity and :ro%thH Obama should be re(elected or let :o dependin: on ho% American voters evaluate his ste%ardship of America8s political and economic institutions& 9he 7orld Gconomic Forum8s motto is# 2ommitted to Cmprovin: the +tate of the 7orld& Cts annual %inter meetin: in 6avos, +%it)erland attracts the %orld8s 'et(settin: political, business, and intellectual :litterati as they discuss issues de 'ure J the %orld economy, health and ;CQ, climate chan:e, and :lobali)ation& Presidents, prime ministers, central ban4ers, Mueens and parliamentary$con:ressional notables rub shoulders %ith 1ill =ates, -ussian oli:archs, ;enry >issin:er, 1ill and ;illary 2linton, Al =ore, and >ofi Annan& 1arac4 Obama fits the intellectual, cosmopolitan, and :lobal profile of the 7orld Gconomic Forum to a 9& A =2C conclusion that 3&+& political and economic institutions deteriorated under Obama8s ste%ardship could not be spun as partisan by Obama8s spin masters& 7hen =eor:e 1ush passed the baton to 1arrac4 Obama in January of 2 ?, the 2 B(2 ? edition of the =2C ran4ed the 3&+& number one as it had since 2 F(2 E& 9he 2 B(2 ? report :ave the 3&+& top ran4in: despite its on:oin: financial crisis and sha4y ban4in: system because the country is endo%ed %ith many structural features that ma4e its economy e5tremely productive and that place it on a footin: to ride out the business cycle and economic shoc4s& +o, the =2C pro'ected that America8s relative stren:ths its efficient product, labor and financial mar4ets, hi:her education, innovation, and business sophistication %ould allo% the ne% administration to handily overcome its %ea4nesses deficits, debt, and primary education& 2ontrary to this upbeat assessment, America e5perienced the %orst economic recovery of post%ar history under the Obama administration& Fast for%ard no% to the 2 !!(2 !2 =2C report8s e5planation of %hy the mi:hty 3&+& fell from first to fifth place durin: the three years of Obama# 7hile many structural features continue to ma4e its economy e5tremely productive, a number of escalatin: %ea4nesses have lo%ered the 3+ ran4in: in recent years& 3+ companies are hi:hly sophisticated and innovative, supported by an e5cellent university systemNN On the other hand, there are some %ea4nesses N&&that have deepened since past assessments& 9he business community continues to be critical to%ard public and private institutions ("?th*N& it remains concerned about the :overnment8s ability to maintain arms(len:th relationships %ith the private sector (D th*, and it considers that the :overnment spends its resources relatively %astefully (FFth*N& and re:ulation more burdensome (DBth*& A lac4 of macroeconomic stability continues to be the 3nited +tates8 :reatest area of %ea4ness (? th*& 7hile the efficiency and innovation of American business remain hi:hly ran4ed, at third and fifth respectively, our public and private institutions8 score ("F* ran4s us %ith Creland, +pain, and CsraelR our arms(len:th ran4in: (D * is matched by Gthiopia, Poland, and JordanR our :overnment(%aste (FF* eMuals A)erbai'an, Cran, and +outh AfricaR and our re:ulatory(burden ("?* ties %ith ei:ht countries that include Panama, 9rinidad, /ali, Creland, and Gl +alvador& 9he 2 ! (2 !! =2C report %arns that our lac4 of macroeconomic stability %ill li4ely %ei:h heavily on the country8s future :ro%th& 9he 3&+&8s :overnment(deficit ran4in: (!"?* is matched by =reece, 1ots%ana and +%a)iland& (0o surprise that the Guropeans did not %ant to be lectured by 9imothy =eithner*&

Nuclear War MICHIGAN 7WS 2013 61/221 3P6A9G# 9he 2 !2 =2C report issued +eptember D do%n:raded the 3&+& t%o more points from fifth to seventh on the second day of the 6emocratic national convention (+ee today8s 6rud:e -eport*& 9he 7orld Gconomic Forum8s apolitical =lobal 2ompetitiveness Cnde5 reinforces the restore America8s :reatness mantra of /itt -omney and Paul -yan& Ct confirms that the American free enterprise system suffered serious setbac4s under Obama& 9he =2C sho%s that the very thin:s that 2onservatives critici)e J %asteful :overnment spendin:, unsustainable deficits, burdensome re:ulations, crony capitalism, lac4 of :overnment transparency, and business mistrust of :overnment institutions are indeed dra::in: do%n the 3+ economy and must be corrected and soon& 9he =2C offers, also, a note of optimism& America8s business remains stron: and innovative& Our labor mar4ets function %ell& Our mar4ets are competitive and vibrant& 7e offer the %orld a hu:e mar4et& Americans remain the %orld8s innovators& Our universities are unmatched& 9he core of American :reatness remains intact& Ct is its institutions that must be fi5ed& 7hen candidate Obama promised the people of the %orld a more cooperative, humble, and carbon(free America in 1erlin, his audience did not e5pect America8s relative decline& Gurope, li4e the rest of the %orld, needs an America of stron: economic and political institutions, :ro%th, and innovation&

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<ene9uela -con
-conom' lo" no" "ar 3et"een el&te an% poor o+er o&l "ealt( <ene9uela Anal's&s 7/? Cndependent Qene)uelan 0e%s +ource (Qene)uela# 7ar for oil fuels economic crisis, E$B$!", http#$$vene)uelanalysis&com$analysis$?B2 *$$7K 7ith Qene)uela8s inflation rate for /ay soarin: to F&!I, first Muarter :ro%th sta:natin: at &EI, and shorta:es afflictin: a number of basic :oods, speculation has been rife re:ardin: the country8s economic future& 2ritics from the ri:ht and left have ar:ued these are all si:ns that 2havismo (the name :iven to the radical pro'ect for chan:e spearheaded by former president ;u:o 2have)* has reached its limits& Cn most cases, economic %oes are primarily attributed to bad policies that have led to an e5cessively centralised economy presided over by a bureaucratic state increasin:ly dependent on oil revenue& ;o%ever, placin: the blame solely on the :overnment i:nores the neo(colonial economy inherited by 2havismo& Ct also conceals the on:oin: economic %ar by Qene)uela8s elites, %ho are see4in: to re:ain control over the country8s pri)e possession e oil %ealth& 9his :oal reMuires dismantlin: 2havismo, %hich represents an attempt by

Qene)uela8s historically e5cluded poor ma'ority to capture the state, stem the flo% of oil %ealth out of the country and re(orientate it to%ards meetin: their needs& Oil impacts 9he rise of oil production in the !?2 s dramatically transformed Qene)uela8s economy& A:ricultural production slumped as forei:n oil companies poured into the country to e5tract cheap oil and hi:h profits& -ather than develop local industries, Qene)uela8s elites preferred to ta4e part of this oil %ealth for themselves& 9hey used some of it to import :oods from abroad to sell in the domestic mar4et& Qene)uela8s oil(based economy too4 the form of neo(colonial capitalism# formally an independent nation, Qene)uela8s economy %as dominated by and dependent upon the economies of imperialist countries e especially the 3nited +tates, the main destination for oil e5ports and ori:in of imported basic :oods& 9his economic set(up also profoundly shaped the state and society in Qene)uela& As oil transnationals e5tracted the oil, the state too4 on the role of ma4in: sure that, via ta5es, royalties and re:ulations, some of Qene)uela8s oil %ealth stayed in the country& Kocal business elites, ho%ever, became increasin:ly reliant on their connections to the state in order to secure some of this %ealth& 9his led to a fusion of po%er and %ealth %ithin the state& Ct spa%ned a parasitic capitalist class that sou:ht to accumulate capital lar:ely throu:h siphonin: off the state8s oil(based revenue& 9he state also became a vehicle for creatin: a ne% middle class, %hose position in society %as tied to the state bureaucracy& Further do%n the ladder %ere mar:inalised popular classes, driven from the countryside into the city in search of a livelihood and %hat they felt %as their ri:htful share of oil %ealth& For many, the state %as vie%ed as a means to lift them out of poverty& 9his led to a pervasive culture of clientalism (%hereby access to 'obs and services %as tied to %hich political :roup you supported* and corruption& An e5tensive array of le:al and ille:al channels %ere established to appropriate and and re(distribute the oil money that remained in the country, %ith the lion8s share :oin: to the elites& Qarious bids to develop other sectors of the economy did little to fundamentally alter this scenario& 0eocolonial economy Cnstead, developmentalist policies (%hether aimed at import substitution or e5port promotion* served to dis:uise the deepenin: of the rentier and neo(colonial nature of Qene)uela8s capitalist economy& Policies such as mar4et protection, overvalued currency, lo% ta5es and access to cheap forei:n e5chan:e, %hich %ere supposed to promote import substitution, simply became vehicles to bolster the flo% of oil rent to the local elites& One form this too4 %as buyin: forei:n e5chan:e at the overvalued e5chan:e rate and sellin: imports at inflated prices& 1ut an overvalued currency made e5ports e5pensive, and the limited si)e of the local economy meant industrial development %as dependent on rent transfer& Cn both cases, connections to the state, rather than competitiveness, %as decisive to economic success& 9his helped the rise of a fe% po%erful :roups of con:lomerates %ith close connections to the state, rather than internal economic development& 9he push to%ards e5port production fared no betterR instead they reflected shifts in the international mar4et& 7ith some industries provin: too e5pensive to run else%here, such as the auto(industry, companies decided to shift production to places such as Qene)uela on the proviso that national protection barriers %ere removed and cheap natural resources made available& From the start, these ne% enterprises %ere to be inte:rated into :lobalised production chains, orientated to%ards e5portin: :oods and profits bac4 to the :lobal 0orth& One important chan:e that occurred %as the state :radually became an important economic a:ent in its o%n ri:ht& Cts presence in the economy :re% %ith the oil nationalisation of !?E@ and lar:e investment in heavy industries such as steel and aluminium& 9he aim %as to e5pand the state bureaucracy8s economic base& 9his led to tensions %ith private capital (%hich :enerally appeared to be fi:hts a:ainst corruption or for :reater state efficiency*& Ct served to hei:hten conflicts %ithin the state bet%een different fractions of capital over priorities (such as state investment in heavy industry versus subsidies for consumer :oods industries*& ;i:h oil prices helped dampen these conflicts, all the %hile fundin: the steady reproduction of this model& ;o%ever, %hen oil prices tumbled do%n in the late !?E s and AB s, the state became completely dependent on forei:n loans& 9his led to a severe crisis of the state& Forei:n capital used the state8s debt and deficit crisis to impose harsh austerity measures a:ainst the poor, %hile sMuee)in: more and more %ealth out of the country& 9his, alon: %ith risin: levels of protest and discontent amon: Qene)uela8s fra:mented popular classes, %as the bac4drop to the rise of 2havismo& 2have)8s platform %hen first elected in !??B %as far from radical& Cn some areas, it represented a continuity %ith the policies of previous neoliberal :overnments& 2havismo ;o%ever, t%o features clearly differentiated 2havismo from its predecessors& 9he first %as the 2have) :overnmentAs push to secure ma'ority state control over oil %ealth and redistribute it to the benefit of the poor via poverty alleviation pro:rams and the creation of a social economy& 9he aim %as for the social economy to co(e5ist alon:side the public and private sector& Ct %as seen as a vehicle to incorporate unemployed and informal %or4ers into the formal economy via promotin: cooperatives and small and medium si)ed social enterprises& 9he second %as 2havismo8s emphasis on peoples8 participation in all spheres (political, economic, social* as the only means by %hich to chan:e society& 3nsurprisin:ly, %hen the 2have) :overnment be:an to ta4e serious steps to implement its pro:ram, in particular to place state oil company P6Q+A under the control of the :overnment, Qene)uela8s elites unleashed an all out %ar& 9hey tried to brin: do%n 2have)As :overnment& 9his included a failed military coup in April 2 2 and a t%o(month mana:ement shutdo%n of P6Q+A startin: in 6ecember that same year& -adicalisation 1oth attempts %ere defeated by the combined mobilisation of the people and the military& 1oth also ended %ith the popular classes capturin: control over 4ey parts of the state# the military, no% pur:ed of reactionary elements ali:ned %ith the old elites, and P6Q+A, cleansed of its bureaucracy that %al4ed out on stri4e and %as never allo%ed to return& Cntensified class stru::le also led to a radicalisation of 2havismo& ;avin: secured control over oil money (and imposed strict currency controls to stop capital fli:ht*, the 2have) :overnment be:an re(directin: %ealth to%ards meetin: peoples8 basic needs& Cn real terms, per capita social spendin: 'umped "!@I bet%een !??B and 2 F& 9his fuelled important :ains in poverty reduction, %a:e rises and hi:her consumption levels amon: the poor& 7ealth re(distribution %as combined %ith measures be:innin: to :ive 2havismo a clear anti(capitalist character& -ather than relyin: on the inherited bureaucratic state apparatus, the :overnment circumvented these corrupted institutions by creatin: social missions& 9hese are pro:rams funded by oil %ealth that rely on net%or4s of community :roups to facilitate access to healthcare, education and subsidised food, amon: other thin:s& 9he social economy %as increasin:ly vie%ed less as a complement and more as an alternative to the capitalist sector& Policy initiatives in this direction such as promotin: %or4er(run factories and cooperatives relied on a reinvi:orated %or4in: class& +ocialism of the 2!st century 2have) %as re(election at the end of 2 F, this time on an e5plicit platform of pushin: for%ard to%ards socialism of the 2!st century& 9his si:naled the start of a ne% phase of radicalisation& 2onfronted %ith the shortcomin:s of a strate:y of buildin: parallel institutions and simply promotin: alternatives to the capitalist sector, 2have) said they needed to dismantle the old capitalist state and directly confront capital& Over the ne5t si5 years, the :overnment carried out a %ave of nationalisations, alon:side creatin: ne% companies& 9his made the state the dominant player across various strate:ic sectors& 9hese moves %ere a response to :ro%in: demands by the poor around basic services (electricity, telecommunications*, housin: (cement, steel* and food (land e5propriations, processin: companies, supermar4et chains*& ;o%ever, nationalisations alone did not eMual socialism& -ather, peoples8 participation in production and distribution %as also essential& 7or4er participation %as encoura:ed in a number of these ne%ly nationalised companies& 9hese companies %ere also encoura:ed to lin4 up %ith cooperatives and other community(o%ned enterprises& +pecial emphasis %as placed on promotin: the communal councils& Funded by the state, these councils sou:ht to build on and lin4 up activists from the various community :roups and social missions to collectively discuss and resolve the problems facin: local communities& Cn 2 ?, the :overnment too4 a further step by promotin: communes, made up of elected representatives of various communal councils to tac4le lar:er(scale problems& 9hese bodies are also encoura:ed to create community(o%ned and (run enterprises, %ith profits raised :oin: to social pro'ects& 9hese :roups %ere vie%ed as the buildin: bloc4s of a ne% po%er built from belo%& Cn sum, 2havismo represented an attempt by Qene)uela8s popular class to %in control of the state and use this position of po%er to brin: strate:ic sectors of the economy under its control (in particular oil*, and re(socialise the %ealth to%ards meetin: their needs& 2entral

9he current problems have more to do %ith the successes rather than the failures of 2havismo& 9he :overnment, nonetheless, still presides over a capitalist economy that is oil(dependent, even if it has been able to reassert a level of economic soverei:nty and plant the seeds of a socialist transformation& +horta:es in basic :oods, %hich have contributed to hi:her inflation, are due less to a crumblin: economy (%hich :re% D&FI last year* than to a ! (year lon: e5plosion in consumption by the poor due to oil %ealth redistribution& A:ricultural production levels have :enerally risen, but they have not been able to 4eep pace %ith demand & 9his led to a sur:e in imports& 0onetheless, Qene)uela has maintained a constant trade surplus, %hich last year totaled 3+["B billion& Qene)uela8s economic elites have sou:ht to ta4e advanta:e of the problems to fuel discontent a:ainst the :overnment & 9hey see4 to force it to %ind bac4 its controls over the
to achievin: this has been direct peoples8 participation in the political, social and economic sphere& 2urrent problems

flo% of oil money or brin: it do%n& -ather than produce to meet peoples8 needs (somethin: that Qene)uelan elites have never done*, they preferred to rely on imports, actively hoarded basic :oods or sold them on the blac4 mar4et to avoid price controls& 9his, to:ether %ith speculation in

blac4 mar4et dollars, has pushed up the sale price for imported :oods, leadin: to a shift of oil %ealth out of the poc4ets of %or4ers into the ban4 accounts of the capitalists & 9hese manoeuvers have been helped by an inherited state bureaucracy that reproduces corruption and clientalism & For e5ample, the ne%ly appointed head of the 2entral 1an4 of
Qene)uela said that in /ay, about 3+[!D(2 billion %orth of dollars :ranted by the 2ommission for the Administration of 2urrency G5chan:e (2A6CQC* had ended up in the blac4 mar4et& Cn July, the :overnment e5posed an e5tortion rin: operatin: in the state a:ency responsible for re:ulatin: and monitorin: price controls& 9he rin: had lin4s all the %ay to the top of the institution& Overcomin: the problems %ill reMuire deepenin:

the 2havismo model& 9his means ti:htenin: control over the flo% of oil %ealth to ensure it ends up meetin: peopleAs needs, rather than re(

Nuclear War 63/221

directin: it to a private sector more interested in enrichin: itself rather than producin:&

MICHIGAN 7WS 2013

9his %ill reMuire specific measures to beat bac4 the economic %ar bein: %a:ed by the economic elites, as %ell as a %ar on corruption %ithin the state & For these
measures to be successful, they %ill need to be :uided by 2havismo8s radical vision of development& 9his vision sees it not 'ust as a Muestion of economic :ro%th achieved throu:h public investment and social spendin:, but one of :reater peoples8 participation in the political, economic and social spheres&

-conom' lo" no" )ol% pr&ce an% 3an# reser+es $loom3er) 7/6 (2have)8s E I =old 1et 3nravels as -eserves Plun:e# Andes 2redit, E$@$!", http#$$%%%&bloomber:&com$ne%s$2
@$chave)(s(E (:old(bet(unravels(on(reserves(plun:e(andes(credit&html*$$7K 9he bet on :old that former Qene)uelan President ;u:o 2have) made in the final years of his life is

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collapsin: at the %ron: time for his country& 2have), %ho ar:ued that Qene)uela should move a%ay from the dictatorship of the dollar, stoc4piled more than E percent of Qene)uela8s forei:n reserves in :old by 2 !2, the hi:hest percenta:e amon: all emer:in:(mar4et countries and more than D
times that held by nei:hbors 2olombia and 1ra)il, accordin: to the 7orld =old 2ouncil& After re%ardin: Qene)uela %ith a rally of almost @ percent in the past decade, :old has tumbled 2D percent this year, helpin: drive the central ban48s reserves to an ei:ht(month lo%

and compromisin: the :overnment8s ability to repay forei:n debt & 9he yield on Qene)uela8s dollar(denominated bonds has risen
F2 basis points, or &F2 percenta:e point, to !!&B@ percent in the past month, compared %ith an avera:e increase of DE basis points for other countries in Katin America& Qene)uela8s reserves have ta4en a bi: hit, Francisco -odri:ue), an economist at 1an4 of America 2orp&, said by phone from 0e% Por4& Cf

current :old price levels continue, then you %ill see an increase in perception that Qene)uela8s capacity to pay is %ea4enin:& 6efault +%aps 2entral ban4 reserves fell belo% [2D billion last %ee4 from as much as [2?&? billion last year even as 2have)8s handpic4ed successor, 0icolas /aduro, has cut dollar supplies for importers, creatin: shorta:es of everythin: from toilet paper to butter& +tandard T Poor8s reduced Qene)uela8s credit ratin: to its lo%est in ei:ht years last month as the shorta:es %orsened and consumer prices rose at the fastest pace in Katin America& 9he cost to
insure Qene)uelan debt a:ainst non(payment for five years usin: credit(default s%aps has climbed "EE basis points this year to !, 2@ basis points& 9he cost %as little chan:ed today at !#"@ p&m& 0e% Por4 time& 9he ?E basis(point premium that investors demand to buy Qene)uelan dollar bonds instead of 3&+& 9reasuries is the second hi:hest in emer:in: mar4ets after Ar:entine debt, accordin: to JP/or:an8s G/1C =lobal inde5& 9he rally in :old had enabled 2have), %ho died of cancer in /arch, to siphon off [@D&B billion from the central ban4 to an off(bud:et development fund since 2 D %hile 4eepin: reserves above [2D billion for most of the period, accordin: to the Finance /inistry& 9he fund, 4no%n as Fonden, invests in infrastructure pro'ects& 9he central ban4 didn8t respond to an e(mail see4in: comment& 1lac4 /ar4et 0ot only have total reserves fallen %e also have the lo%est level of cash reserves, Jose /anuel Puente, an economics professor at the CG+A business school in 2aracas, said by phone& 1y havin: a lo% position in cash reserves the central ban48s capacity to address the forei:n(e5chan:e mar4et %ea4ens& 9he :overnment has held only one auction of dollars since introducin: a ne% e5chan:e system in /arch, forcin: many importers to turn to the blac4 mar4et for funds& 9he dollar cost "!&@ bolivars on the blac4 mar4et in the 2olombian border to%n of 2ucuta, accordin: to the %ebsite 6olar9oday&com, compared %ith the official e5chan:e rate of F&"& As the

supply of dollars dries up, the central ban48s scarcity inde5 , %hich trac4s the number of staple :oods out of stoc4 on supermar4et shelves, rose to a five(year hi:h of 2!&" percent in April, before droppin: bac4 to 2 &F percent in /ay& At the same time, inflation accelerated to "D&2 percent in /ay from 2 &! percent last year, faster than any of ! " economies trac4ed by 1loomber:& ^G5cessive 6emand8 Qene)uela has been losin: cash reserves because of an e5cessive demand for dollars from the import sector due to an overvalued e5chan:e rate, said Qictor Olivo, an economist at the 3niversidad 2entral de Qene)uela in 2aracas and a former economist at the central ban4& 9his is a :overnment %hich consumes lots of funds in pro'ects that don8t :enerate dollars and almost the only e5port is oil& 9here are underlyin: problems that need to be resolved& Gven no%, the
:overnment should be able to maintain current levels of currency reserves by transferrin: cash bac4 from off(bud:et funds, said 1en'amin -amsey, an analyst at JP/or:an 2hase T 2o& Fonden had [!F&? billion in assets at the end of 2 !2, accordin: to its annual report& +till, by repatriatin: !F tons of 2!! tons held in 3&+&, Guropean and 2anadian ban4s startin: in 2 !!, 2have) limited the central ban48s ability to sell the metal as it see4s to shore up its reserves, -amsey said& ,G 3n%ind Ct8s limited the operational use of that :old, he said in a phone intervie% from 0e% Por4& Qene)uelan reserves %ere sufficient to cover a month8s %orth of imports in 2 !2, compared %ith ! months in 2 D, accordin: to the 7orld 1an4& 1ra)il8s reserves covered !" months of imports in 2 !2, %hile 2olombia and 2hile had enou:h for five months& /oreover, Qene)uelan reserves are lo%er than calculated by the central ban4, accordin: to 9amara ;errera, chief economist at 2aracas(based financial consultancy +intesis Financiera& 9he ban4 uses a si5(month movin: avera:e for bullion, %hich has delayed the impact of the slump in prices, she said& =old prices and Qene)uela8s reserves may fall further if the 3&+& Federal -eserve slo%s its pro:ram of asset purchases, 4no%n as Muantitative easin:, or ,G, said ;+12 +ecurities Cnc& analyst James +teel& 9he mar4et is vulnerable to another sell(off possibly %hen ,G taperin: actually happens, +teel said in an intervie% July " on 1loomber: -adio8s 1loomber: +urveillance& Oil 6ollars 1ullion futures slid 2" percent in the second Muarter, the most since at least !?ED, as Federal -eserve 2hairman 1en +& 1ernan4e said the Fed may slo% its bond(buyin: pro:ram as the 3&+& economy stren:thens& As fallin: :old prices %hittle a%ay reserves ,

Qene)uela is also receivin: less dollars from state oil company Petroleos de Qene)uela +A, %hose e5ports dropped !" percent to a t%o(
year lo% in the first Muarter& 7hile the :overnment spent [D?&" billion on imports last year, P6Q+A e5pects to transfer only [@!&D billion to the central ban4 this year, Oil /inister -afael -amire) said /arch !?& 9here are some fundamental structural problems in Qene)uela and

the issue of the :old reserves is an a::ravator , said 1ianca 9aylor, senior soverei:n analyst at Koomis +ayles T 2o KP in 1oston& 7ith a
potential balance(of(payments crisis loomin:, havin: reserves in :old in a bear mar4et for :old ma4es it even more difficult for them&8

Inflat&on soar&n) un%erm&n&n) econom' Wall Street ournal 7/4 (Qene)uelan Cnflation +ur:es, E$?$!",
http#$$online&%s'&com$article$+1!

Cnflation in Qene)uela reached a ne% milestone 9uesday# Prices measured on a yearly basis are no% risin: at the fastest rate since the late President ;u:o 2hfve) too4 po%er in !??? and upended this oil(rich nationAs politics and economy& 9he

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Nuclear War MICHIGAN 7WS 2013 66/221 annual inflation rate in June re:istered at "?&FI, the hi:hest !2(month fi:ure since the central ban4 introduced a ne%
methodolo:y for its 2onsumer Price Cnde5 in 2 B& Accordin: to a monthly central(ban4 report, the nation%ide inde5 'umped @&EI in June from the previous month& Kast monthAs fi:ure %as an improvement over the F&!I climb seen in /ay, but still ran4ed amon: the hi:hest monthly increases datin: bac4 to 2 B& Kast monthAs inflation %as propelled by steep increases in food prices and climbin: prices in the transportation sector, and in restaurants and hotels, accordin: to the central ban4As report& Cnflation in the capital city of 2aracas, considered the benchmar4 fi:ure by some economists, re:istered at @&"I in June& 9he !2(month rate in 2aracas reached "E&"I last month& 2onsumer prices are soarin: at the same time

economic :ro%th has slo%ed to a cra%l& 9he economy e5panded by &EI from a year earlier in the first three months of the year, follo%in: year(over(year :ro%th of D&DI in the last Muarter of 2 !2& President 0icolfs /aduro, elected in April, inherited an economy buc4lin: under heavy :overnment spendin: and a :ro%in: debt load as la%ma4ers attempted to address a %idenin: bud:et :ap
%ith a currency devaluation in February, the fifth time in a decade the :overnment has resorted to such a move& Alberto -amos, an analyst for =oldman +achs, =+ ( &B"I said in a client note 9uesday that underlyin: inflationary pressures are li4ely hi:her than reflected in the central(ban4 data, :iven

that prices of many basic items are re:ulated by the :overnment& <9he hi:h inflation environment and fiscal cash(flo% crunch are addin: pressure for another lar:e N(currency* devaluation in F to !2
months,< /r& -amos %rote& /r& /aduroAs mentor and predecessor, the late ;u:o 2hfve), %on re(election in 2 !2 %ith lavish :overnment spendin: that critics say put a strain on the countryAs international reserves, despite Qene)uelaAs vast oil fields& /r& 2hfve) died in /arch after a nearly t%o(year battle %ith cancer& Cmporters have stru::led to 4eep :roceries stoc4ed %ithout dollars, %hich are available le:ally only throu:h :overnment channels& Qene)uela imports rou:hly E I of the :oods it consumes& +o %hile the nation sits atop the %orldAs lar:est oil reserves, many

residents have stru::led to find basic :oods, such as chic4en and toilet paper & 9he devaluation has also made imported
:oods more e5pensive, %hich has li4ely stirred inflation& 9he central ban4As scarcity inde5, a measure of products missin: from store shelves, eased in June, re:isterin: at !?&"I, after hittin: record levels in recent months& 9he scarcity inde5 soared to its hi:hest levels in April at 2!&"I, before declinin: to 2 &DI in /ay& Qene)uelan officials have plans to :et more dollars into the economy %ith the return of a forei:n(e5chan:e system that auctions :reenbac4s& 9he forei:n(e5chan:e platform had its first and so far only auction earlier this year& Analysts Muestion %hether the platform, 4no%n as +icad, %ill offer enou:h dollars to alleviate pent(up demand&

-conom' fall&n) no" structural pro3lems -l >n&+ersal 7/1 Qene)uelan 0e%spaper (Qene)uelaAs economic imbalances prevent achievement of :oals, E$!$!",
http#$$%%%&eluniversal&com$economia$!" E !$vene)uelas(economic(imbalances(prevent(achievement(of(:oals*$$7K

-estorin: an economy full of imbalances that no lon:er matches the plan outlined less than a year a:o is one of the challen:es Qene)uelan authorities are facin:& 1ased on the results, the model desi:ned %ithin the frame%or4 of socialism appears unfeasible in the lon: term& 9he Qene)uelan :overnmentAs economic :oals for 2 !" included :ro%th at FI, inflation at !@(!FI, %ith the oil bas4et price at 3+6 DD per barrel and the forei:n e5chan:e rate at QG1 @&" per 3+6 dollar& ;o%ever, the :overnment first missed a :oal in February, %hen the G5ecutive Office ordered a devaluation of the Qene)uelan bolivar by @F&DI, to QG1 F&" per 3+ dollar & 9hen, after the Muarterly economic :ro%th hit some five percent throu:hout 2 !2, the economy stopped and :ro%th stood at &EI in January(/arch 2 !"& Furthermore, inflation in January(/ay hit !?&@I, more than three percenta:e points above the yearAs inflation :oal& 9he only :oal met thus far is the oil price & 2alculated at 3+6 DD per barrel, last %ee4 the oil bas4et avera:ed 3+6 ?B&?? per barrel& 9he real problems 3nli4e other times, the current situation is not the result of e5ternal factors or specific situations, but of structural issues ne:atively affectin: the economy&
+ome of the drivin: forces behind the countryAs current situation are lo%er oil output (2&"I do%n in /ay as a:ainst the same month in 2 !2*R sales of oil at F (E I of mar4et price under the Petrocaribe a:reementR allocation of %indfall oil revenues to different funds free of monitorin:, 'ust li4e the case of traditional fiscal accountsR and spiralin: inflation, %ith the annuali)ed rate as of /ay at "D&2I& Further, the public manufacturin: sector

has slo%ed do%n& Accordin: to the 2entral 1an4 of Qene)uela, state(o%ned manufacturin: companies recorded a !2&!I drop in the first Muarter of 2 !"& /o" No"2 Cre%&t @at&n) /at&n Amer&can Heral% ,r&3une */26 (+TP Ko%ers Qene)uela -atin:s to ^18 from ^1`8, F$2@$!",
http#$$%%%&laht&com$article&aspHArticleCdSB!BB FT2ate:oryCdS! E!E*$$7K +tandard T Poor8s -atin:s +ervices said on /onday it lo%ered its lon:(term forei:n and local currency soverei:n credit

ratin:s on the

1olivarian -epublic of Qene)uela to ^18 from ^1`8& 9he outloo4 on the lon:(term ratin:s is ne:ative& At the same time, the a:ency affirmed its ^18 short(term forei:n and local currency soverei:n credit ratin:s on Qene)uela& +TP also do%n:raded its transfer T convertibility (9T2* assessment to ^18 from ^1`8& 9he do%n:rade on Qene)uela reflects the :overnment8s diminishin: ability to

implement measures to reverse declinin: =6P :ro%th, risin: inflation , and %ea4enin: e5ternal liMuidity in the conte5t of :ro%in: political disa:reements %ithin the administration, said +tandard T Poor8s credit analyst +ebastian 1rio))o& =ro%in: political uncertainty is %ea4enin: the implementation of economic policies and may possibly undermine :overnability& 9he political uncertainty reflects both increasin: tension bet%een the :overnment and the opposition because of the narro% election victory of the no% President 0icolas /aduro and the fact that this result %as challen:ed by the opposition and, more importantly, si:ns of internal disa:reements %ithin the :overnment& 9his ma4es it more difficult for the :overnment to underta4e steps to contain inflation , ease shorta:es of :oods in the local mar4et, and reverse other economic distortions& =6P :ro%th is deceleratin: sharply in 2 !", and the a:ency e5pects it to approach )ero& Cnflation is increasin:

Nuclear War MICHIGAN 7WS 2013 65/221 and may reach close to @ I by year(end& =ro%in: restrictions on e5ternal liMuidity as a result of P6Q+A8s lo%er oil production and a more
uncertain outloo4 for oil prices %ill continue to limit Qene)uela8s ability to deal %ith :ro%in: domestic political and economic challen:es& /oreover,

political difficulties add to the already hi:h level of unpredictability that characteri)es Qene)uela8s economic policy frame%or4, %hich constrains the soverei:n credit ratin:& 9he country8s vast oil and :as reserves, the :overnment8s relatively lo% debt
burden, and its net e5ternal asset position continue to support the ratin:& 9he ne:ative outloo4 reflects the possibility that a politically %ea4ened president and administration may pursue less pra:matic policies that increase imbalances in the economy and result in :reater instability, said 1rio))o& Ct also reflects the ris4 that even if the :overnment ta4es corrective measures , it may not be able to implement

them effectively because of the difficult political environment & 7e could lo%er the ratin: by one notch under such a scenario& Cn a
more e5treme and remote scenario, the political situation could deteriorate to the point of disruptin: the administration8s ability to :overn and, thereby, impair its ability to service its debt& +TP said it could lo%er the ratin: by more than one notch under such a scenario& +teps to defuse the hei:htened tensions in Qene)uela8s political environment %ould reduce the ris4s of erodin: :overnability and of :reater volatility in economic policies& 9hat, alon: %ith pra:matic economic policies to contain economic imbalances, could lead the a:ency to revise the outloo4 to stable&

No collapse com&n) %ata %&storte% 3' oppos&t&on fear2mon)ers We&s3rot 3/3 ( co(director of the 2entre for Gconomic and Policy -esearch in 7ashin:ton 62& President of Just Forei:n Policy& (Qene)uelaAs devaluation doom(mon:ers, "$"$!", http#$$%%%&:uardian&co&u4$commentisfree$2 !"$mar$ "$vene)uela(
devaluation(doom(mon:ers*$$7K

Qene)uelaAs recent devaluation has spar4ed Muite a bit of discussion in the international press& 9he Qene)uelan opposition has naturally framed it as desperate move to head off inevitable economic collapse & 9he opposition ar:ument, supported by most of the international media (%hich relies on opposition sources*, :oes li4e this# Qene)uela had to devalue because the :overnment has run out of money& 1ut the devaluation is too little and too late, inflation %ill :et out of control, there %ill be more devaluations and more money %ill leave the country and the :overnment %ill :o bro4e and collapse& Opponents of the Qene)uelan :overnment are hopin: for an <inflation(devaluation< spiral that %ill help brin: do%n the :overnment& Cn this scenario, the devaluation raises the costs of imports, fuelin: inflationR %ith hi:her
prices, the currency is more overvalued in real terms, and another devaluation follo%s, and so on& As people lose confidence in the currency, more people e5chan:e their domestic currency for dollars, buildin: more pressure for devaluation and causin: the country to run out of forei:n e5chan:e reserves a balance of payments crisis& Of course, to the e5tent that the opposition can convince people that this is actually

happenin:, it can help the process unfold 'ust as rumors of insolvency can cause a ban4 run& Cn both Qene)uela and
Ar:entina, the media is mostly opposition, and so it is not surprisin: that these vie%s :et prominent covera:e in both countries& KetAs e5amine the ar:ument& 9he first premise that Qene)uela had to devalue in order to :et more domestic currency (the bolivar fuerte* for each dollar of oil revenue has been the foundation of most ne%s reportin:& 1ut this does

not ma4e much economic sense& 7hen the :overnment devalues the currency from @&"1 to F&"1 per dollar, %hat does it doH Ct credits itself %ith t%o additional bolivares for each dollar of oil revenue that it receives& Of course, it could create the same amount of money, %ithout devaluin:R opponents %ould
ob'ect, <but creatin: money increases inflation&< 1ut the :overnmentAs creation of t%o additional bolivares for each dollar received is also creatin: money, no different from creatin: money %ithout the devaluation& 9he main difference is that, in addition to any inflationary impact

of creatin: more money, the devaluation also adds to inflation by raisin: the price of imported :oods & 2reatin: money, thou:h, does not al%ays add to inflation& 9he 3+ Federal -eserve has created more than [2tn since 2 B, and inflation has not
si:nificantly increased& 1ut if the Qene)uelan :overnment 'ust %anted to have more bolivares to spend, it %ould be less inflationary to 'ust create the money %ithout the devaluation& 7hy devalue, thenH 6evaluation has other effects& Althou:h more e5pensive imports add to

inflation, they also help domestic production that competes %ith imports & And, perhaps more importantly, devaluation ma4es dollars more e5pensive, and therefore increases the cost of capital fli:ht & 9his helps the :overnment 4eep more dollars in the country& 0ot surprisin:ly, a lot of %hat passes for analysis in the press is based on %ron: numbers and fla%ed lo:ic& 9he a%ard for %ron: numbers this time :oes to /oisgs 0ahm, %ho %rites in the Financial 9imes that <durin: ;u:o
2hfve)As presidency, the bolivar has been devalued by ??2I&< Fans of arithmetic %ill note immediately that this is impossible& 9he most that a currency could be devalued is ! I, at %hich point it %ould e5chan:e for )ero dollars& Apparently, a very %ide ran:e of e5a::eration is permissible %hen %ritin: about Qene)uela, so lon: as it is ne:ative& 1ut, for a number of reasons, inflation(devaluation spirals in Katin America are a thin:

of the past and a devaluation every fe% years is a far cry from such a spiral& Cn fact, despite press reports that inflation
%ould reach F I after the January 2 ! devaluation %hich %as lar:er than the latest one core inflation did not even rise, and headline inflation rose only temporarily& Cnflation then fell for more than t%o years, even as economic :ro%th accelerated to D&2I last year& 9he amount of inflation that follo%s this devaluation %ill depend on %hat other measures that the :overnment ta4es and ho% effectively they are implemented# price controls, the provision of dollars for importers (includin: food*, and capital controls& 1ut if the past fe% years are any indication, the :overnment %ill do %hat it

needs to do in order to 4eep inflation and shorta:es from :ettin: out of hand & As for Qene)uelaAs public debt, the :overnment is a lon: %ay from havin: a problem of unsustainable debt & 9he C/F pro'ects Qene)uelaAs :ross public debt for
2 !2 at D!&"I of =6P (as compared to more than ? I for Gurope*& A better measure is the burden of the forei:n part of this debt, %hich in 2 !2 %as about !I of =6P, or @&!I of Qene)uelaAs e5port earnin:s& 9here are a number of distortions and problems %ith Qene)uelaAs

economy includin: recurrent shorta:es and some of them have to do %ith the mana:ement of the e5chan:e rate system& 1ut none of these problems presents a systemic threat to the economy , in the %ay that for e5ample real estate bubbles in the 3+, 3>, +pain and
other countries did in 2 F& 9hose %ere truly unsustainable imbalances that made an economic collapse inevitable& 6espite the %ishful thin4in: that is over(represented in the media, Qene)uelaAs economy %ill most li4ely :ro% for many years to come, so lon: as the

:overnment continues to support :ro%th and employment&

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No collapse C(&nese loans an% ant&2corrupt&on measures Worl% $ullet&n 7/26 9ur4ish 0e%s +ource (Qene)uela see4s [D billion 2hina loan, E$2@$!", http#$$%%%&%orldbulletin&net$H
a9ypeShaberTArticleC6S!!"E@"*$$7K

Qene)uela is see4in: a loan of up to [D billion from 2hina to finance a state investment fund that %as recently the
victim of an embe))lement scheme by the fundAs o%n employees involvin: millions of dollars& +tate media on 9uesday cited a :overnment official sayin: that Qene)uela %as in tal4s for a third tranche of financin: for the Joint 2hinese(Qene)uela Fund, %hich invests in pro'ects such as housin: and infrastructure and repays loans %ith oil shipments& President 0icolas /aduroAs :overnment said this month that ei:ht people %ere arrested for appropriatin: [B@ million from the fund, %hich has received t%o [@ billion tranches from the 2hina 6evelopment 1an4 since its inception in 2 E& < Cn

the ne5t t%o %ee4s %e are :oin: to have another round of hi:h(level ne:otiations in 2aracas %ith 2hina 6evelopment 1an4,< said 9emir Porras, president of state development ban4 1andes that administers the fund, in comments reported by state
media& <(9he ne5t tranche* could reach [D billion& 9hatAs %hat %eAre ne:otiatin: ri:ht no%&< 9he public prosecutorsA office has said it plans to char:e four fund employees, includin: one identified as the actin: e5ecutive mana:er, %ith money launderin: and financial crimes& Four employees of an industrial maintenance company %ere also implicated& A %ebsite for the fund, %hich provided only basic information includin: a one(sentence description of its purpose, appears to have been lar:ely ta4en do%n follo%in: the arrests& Cn an unrelated corruption case also involvin: 1andes, 3&+& authorities in /ay char:ed employees of a 0e% Por4 bro4er(dealer %ith :eneratin: more than [FF million throu:h a 4ic4bac4 scheme use to %in 1andesA bond(tradin: business& /aduro has launched %hat he calls a battle a:ainst corruption and has announced arrests for crimes

ran:in: from e5tortion of merchants to contraband of iron at a state(run minin: firm& Opposition leaders call the effort a smo4escreen
that avoids tar:etin: his most important allies and does nothin: to improve the transparency of mur4y state(run investment funds that spend billions of dollars %ithout the oversi:ht of 2on:ress& 9he ne% loan from 2hina may help provide hard currency for Qene)uelaAs

e5chan:e control system, %hich business leaders say does not provide enou:h dollars for imports of consumer :oods, leadin: to sporadic shorta:es of products such as toilet paper& Oil /inister -afael -amire) said earlier this year the
OPG2 nation had received a total of ["F billion from 2hina as of last Au:ust, at %hich point it received an additional tranche of [@ billion& Kast year he told a 2on:ressional hearin: that Qene)uela had repaid [!E&? billion of those loans&

Cont&nue% C(&nese %e+elopment pre+ents an' collapse C(&na Da&l' 7/14 (Qene)uela to maintain policies to%ard 2hina, E$!?$!", http#$$usa&chinadaily&com&cn$%orld$2
E$!?$contentL!FE?F@@ &htm*$$7K

!"(

9he ne% :overnment of Qene)uela %ill continue to prioriti)e its relations %ith 2hina and e5pects to learn from 2hinaAs development, Qene)uelan Qice(President Jor:e Arrea)a said in 1ei'in: on 9hursday& Arrea)a, %ho be:an an official five(day visit to 2hina on 7ednesday, made the remar4s %hile meetin: Qice(President Ki Puanchao at the =reat ;all of the People& Observers said there is no need to %orry about chan:es in Qene)uelaAs 2hina policies in the post(2have) period & FreMuent hi:h(level visits sho%ed that the t%o
nations are tryin: to consolidate ties& <Apparently, Qene)uelan President 0icolas /aduro has adopted 2have)As policies on 2hina,< said 7u 1aiyi, deputy head of the Cnstitution of Katin American +tudies under the 2hinese Academy of +ocial +ciences& <1esides, the Qene)uelan economyAs steady

development and its oil e5ports are closely lin4ed to 2hina,< he said& Ki told Arrea)a that the t%o nations should maintain closer
hi:h(level contacts, e5pand cooperation in the areas of ener:y, finance and a:riculture, step up e5chan:es re:ardin: e5perience in :overnance and deepen their strate:ic partnership& 2hina and Qene)uela for:ed a strate:ic partnership of common development in 2 !& Ki said the t%o nations should 'ointly develop a blueprint for the future development of bilateral lin4s& Arrea)a said his :overnment %ill continue to prioriti)e its relations %ith 2hina, addin: that the country is ready to learn from 2hinaAs e5perience in development and stren:then cooperation in all fields& 9he late Qene)uelan leader ;u:o 2have) visited 2hina si5 times after he too4 office in !??? and :reatly encoura:ed boostin: ties& 1ilateral trade reached [2" billion in 2 !2& Accordin: to the 2hinese embassy in Qene)uela, 2hina has provided more than

[" billion in financin: to Qene)uela to push for%ard nearly "

pro'ects of mutual cooperation & 9here have been concerns amon: 2hinese investors that favorable policies on 2hina mi:ht chan:e under the ne% :overnment& /aduro told a visitin: hi:h(ran4in: 2hinese official after 2have)As funeral in /arch that the best %ay to pay tribute to the late leader %as to 4eep deepenin: the strate:ic partnership %ith 2hina& 1ei'in: and 2aracas have maintained freMuent mutual visits of hi:h(level officials since then& Ki Puanchao visited Qene)uela for five days in /ay and met %ith 4ey leaders includin: /aduro, Arrea)a, and President of the Qene)uelan 0ational Assembly 6iosdado 2abello& 9he Forei:n /inistry said the visit %as of :reat importance because the t%o countries had 'ust completed a transition of leadership& 2abello paid a visit to 2hina in July, several days before Arrea)aAs 2hina trip& 2abello said ahead of the visit that Qene)uelaAs relations %ith 2hina %ere stable and that cooperation bet%een the t%o nations %ould continue& ;e said Qene)uela %ould li4e to be an important partner in 2hinaAs ener:y imports& 2hina is a ma'or source of Qene)uelaAs e5port income, he said& 2abello, %ho is also the first vice(president of the rulin: 3nited +ocialist Party of
Qene)uela, said the party %ill dispatch D party members to learn in 2hina in +eptember& ;e said such communication %ill help the development of the country and the party& Qene)uelan Oil and /inin: /inister -afael -amire) also came to 1ei'in: in June& -amire) told reporters that Qene)uela e5ported F2F, barrels of oil per day to 2hina in the first four months of this year, !B percent more than the same period last year& ;e said the fi:ure is e5pected to reach ! million barrels per day %ithin t%o years& Cn 2 D, the fi:ure %as only @?, barrels per day& < 2hinese enterprises are e5pandin:

investment in Qene)uela, a reflection of their confidence in the Qene)uelan economy, and its relations %ith 2hina,< said 7u 1aiyi& 7an: Zhen, former 2hinese ambassador to Qene)uela, said many other political parties in Qene)uela, includin: the opposition, also attach :reat importance to ties %ith 1ei'in:&

Nuclear War 67/221

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Nuclear War 6?/221

MICHIGAN 7WS 2013

$&o%&+ers&t'
Mult&ple alt causes to sol+enc'2 (uman )ro"t(F (a3&tat %estruct&onF pollut&onF a)r&cultureF "arm&n)F an% forest fra)mentat&on @CAF 13 -ainforest 2onservation Fund (D* 2auses of -ecent 6eclines in 1iodiversity, 2 !", -ainforest 2onservation Fund, http#$$%%%&rainforestconservation&or:$rainforest(primer$2(biodiversity$:(recent(losses( in(biodiversity$D(causes(of(recent(declines(in(biodiversity*$$QP 9he ma'or causes of biodiversity decline are land use chan:es, pollution, chan:es in atmospheric 2O2 concentrations, chan:es in the nitro:en cycle and acid rain, climate alterations, and the introduction of e5otic species, all coincident to human population :ro%th& For rainforests, the primary factor is land conversion& 2limate %ill probably
chan:e least in tropical re:ions, and nitro:en problems are not as important because :ro%th in rainforests is usually limited more by lo% phosphorus levels than by nitro:en insufficiency& 9he introduction of e5otic species is also less of a problem than in temperate areas because there is so much diversity in tropical forests that ne%comers have difficulty becomin: established (+ala, et al&, 2 *& a& Human populat&on )ro"t(# 9he

:eometric rise in human population levels durin: the t%entieth century is the fundamental cause of the loss of biodiversity& Ct e5acerbates every other factor havin: an impact on rainforests (not to mention other ecosystems*& Ct has led to an unceasin: search for more arable land for food production and livestoc4 :ra)in:, and for %ood for fuel, construction, and ener:y& Previously undisturbed areas (%hich may or may not be suitable for the purposes to %hich they are constrained* are bein: transformed into a:ricultural or pasture land, stripped of %ood, or mined for resources to support the ener:y needs of an ever(:ro%in: human population& ;umans also tend to settle in areas of hi:h biodiversity, %hich often have relatively rich soils and other attractions for human activities& 9his leads to :reat threats to biodiversity, especially since many of these areas have numerous endemic species& 1almford, et al&, (2 !* have demonstrated that human population si)e in a :iven tropical area correlates %ith the number of endan:ered species, and that this pattern holds for every ta5onomic :roup& /ost of the other effects mentioned
belo% are either conseMuent to the human population e5pansion or related to it& 9he human population %as appro5imately F , million in !E , and one billion in !B & Just no% it e5ceeds si5 billion, and lo% estimates are that it may reach ! billion by the mid(2!st century and !2 billion by 2! & 9he Muestion is %hether many ecolo:ical aspects of biolo:ical systems can be sustained under the pressure of such numbers& 2an birds continue to mi:rate, can lar:er or:anisms have space (habitat* to fora:e, can ecosystems survive in anythin: li4e their present form, or are they doomed to impoverishment and de:radationH b& Ha3&tat %estruct&on# ;abitat destruction is the sin:le most important cause of the loss of

rainforest biodiversity and is directly related to human population :ro%th& As rainforest land is converted to ranches, a:ricultural land (and then, freMuently, to de:raded %oodlands, scrubland, or desert*, urban areas (cf& 1rasilia* and other human usa:es, habitat is lost for forest or:anisms& /any species are %idely distributed and thus, initially, habitat destruction may only reduce local population numbers& +pecies %hich are local, endemic, or %hich have speciali)ed habitats are much more vulnerable to e5tinction, since once their particular habitat is de:raded or converted for human activity, they %ill disappear& /ost of the habitats bein: destroyed are those %hich contain the hi:hest levels of biodiversity, such as lo%land tropical %et forests& Cn this case, habitat loss is caused by clearin:, selective lo::in:, and burnin:& c& !ollut&on# Cndustrial, a:ricultural and %aste(based pollutants can have catastrophic effects on many species& 9hose species %hich are more tolerant of pollution %ill surviveR those reMuirin: pristine environments (%ater, air, food* %ill not& 9hus, pollution can act as a selective a:ent& Pollution of %ater in la4es and rivers has de:raded %aters so that many fresh%ater ecosystems are dyin:& +ince almost !2I of animals species live in these ecosystems, and most others depend on them to some de:ree, this is a very serious matter& Cn developin: countries appro5imately ? I of %aste%ater is dischar:ed, untreated, directly into %ater%ays& d& A)r&culture# 9he dramatic increase in the number of humans durin: the t%entieth century has insti:ated a concomitant :ro%th in a:riculture, and has led to conversion of %ildlands to croplands, massive diversions of %ater from la4es, rivers and under:round aMuifers, and, at the same time, has polluted %ater and land resources %ith pesticides, fertili)ers, and animal %astes& 9he result has been the destruction , disturbance or disablin: of terrestrial ecosystems, and
polluted, o5y:en(depleted and atrophied %ater resources& Formerly, a:riculture in different re:ions of the %orld %as relatively independent and local& 0o%, ho%ever, much of it has become part of the :lobal e5chan:e economy and has caused si:nificant chan:es in social or:ani)ation& Garlier a:ricultural systems %ere inte:rated %ith and co(evolved %ith technolo:ies, beliefs, myths and traditions as part of an inte:rated social system& =enerally, people planted a variety of crops in different areas, in the hope of obtainin: a reasonably stable food supply& 9hese systems could only be

maintained at lo% population levels, and %ere relatively nondestructive (but not al%ays*& /ore recently, a:riculture has in many places lost its local character, and has become incorporated into the :lobal economy& 9his has led to increased pressure on a:ricultural land for e5chan:e commodities and e5port :oods& /ore land is bein: diverted from local food production to cash crops for e5port and e5chan:eR fe%er types of crops are raised, and each crop is raised in much :reater Muantities than before& 9hus, ever more land is
converted from forest (and other natural systems* for a:riculture for e5port, rather than usin: land for subsistence crops& 9he introduction of monocroppin: and the use of relatively fe% plants for food and other uses at the e5pense of the %ide variety of plants and animals utili)ed by earlier peoples and indi:enous peoples is responsible for a loss of diversity and :enetic variability& 9he native plants and animals adapted to the local conditions are no% bein: replaced %ith forei:n (or e5otic* species %hich reMuire special inputs of food and nutrients, lar:e Muantities of %ater& +uch e5otic species freMuently drive out native species& 9here is pressure to conform to crop selection and a:ricultural techniMues all is driven by :lobal mar4ets and technolo:ies& e& =lobal %armin:# 9here is recent evidence that climate chan:es are havin: effects on tropical forest

000-n+&ronment000

Nuclear War MICHIGAN 7WS 2013 64/221 ecolo:y& 7armin: in :eneral (as distinct from the effects of increasin: concentrations of 2O2 and other :reenhouse :ases* can increase primary
productivity, yieldin: ne% plant biomass, increased or:anic litter, and increased food supplies for animals and soil flora (decomposers*& 9emperature chan:es can also alter the %ater cycle and the availability of nitro:en and other nutrients& 1asically, the temperature

7hile %armin: may at first increase net primary productivity (0PP*, in the lon:er run, because plant biomass is increasin:, more nitro:en is ta4en up from the soil and seMuestered in the plant bodies& 9his leaves less nitro:en for the :ro%th of additional plants, so the increase in 0PP over time (due to a rise in temperature or 2O2 levels* %ill be limited
variations %hich are no% occurrin: affect all parts of forest ecosystems, some more than others& 9hese interactions are unima:inably comple5& by nitro:en availability& 9he same is probably true of other mineral nutrients& 9he conseMuences of %armin:(induced shifts in the distribution of nutrients %ill not be seen rapidly, but perhaps only over many years& 9hese events may effect chan:es in species distribution and other ecosystem processes in comple5 %ays& 7e 4no% little about the reactions of tropical forests, but they may differ from those of temperate forests& Cn tropical forests, %armin: may be more important because of its effects on evapotranspiration and soil moisture levels than because of nutrient redistribution or 0PP (%hich is already very hi:h because tropical temperatures are close to the optimum ran:e for photosynthesis and there is so much available li:ht ener:y*& And %armin: %ill obviously act in concert %ith other :lobal or local chan:es increases in atmospheric 2O2 (%hich may modify plant chemistry and the %ater balance of the forest* and land clearin: (%hich chan:es rainfall and local temperatures*, for e5amples& (For an e5cellent discussion of these issues, see +haver, et al&, 2 &* -oot, et al&(2 "* have determined that more than B Iof plant and animal species on %hich they :athered data had under:one temperature(related shifts in physiolo:y& ;i:hland forests in 2osta -ica have suffered losses of amphibian and reptile populations %hich appear to be due to increased %armin: of montane forests& 9he :olden toad 1ufo peri:lenes of 2osta -ica has become e5tinct, at least partly because of the decrease in mist freMuency in its cloud forest habitat& 9he chan:es in mists appear to be a conseMuence of %armin: trends& Other suspected causes are alterations in 'uvenile :ro%th or maturation rates or se5 ratios due to temperature shifts& Parmesan and Pohe (2 "*, in a statistical analysis, determined that climate chan:e had biolo:ical effects on the 2E? species %hich they e5amined& 9he mi:ratory patterns of some birds %hich live in both tropical and temperate re:ions durin: the year seem to be shiftin:, %hich is dan:erous for these species, as they may arrive at their breedin: or %interin: :rounds at an inappropriate time& Or they may lose their essential interactions %ith plants %hich they pollinate or their insect or plant food supplies& Perhaps for these reasons, many mi:ratory species are in decline, and their inability to coWrdinate mi:ratory clues %ith climatic actualities may be partly to blame& 9he :reat tit, %hich still breeds at the same time as previously, no% misses much of its food supply because its plant food develops at an earlier time of year, before the birds have arrived from their %interin: :rounds& Also, as temperatures rise, some bird populations have shifted, %ith lo%land and foothill species movin: into hi:her areas& 9he conseMuences for hi:hland bird populations are not yet clear& And many other or:anisms, both plant

and animal, are bein: affected by %armin:& An increase in infectious diseases is another conseMuence of climate chan:e, since the
causative a:ents are affected by humidity, temperature chan:e, and rainfall& /any species of fro:s and li)ards have declined or disappeared, perhaps because of the increase in parasites occasioned by hi:her temperatures& As %armin: continues, acceleratin: plant :ro%th, patho:ens may spread more Muic4ly because of the increased availability of ve:etation (a density effect* and because of increased humidity under heavier plant cover& As mentioned above, the fun:us Phytophtora cinnamoni has demolished many Gucalyptus forests in Australia& Cn addition, the :eo:raphical ran:e of patho:ens can e5pand %hen the climate moderates, allo%in: patho:ens to find ne%, nonresistant hosts& On the other hand, a number of instances of amphibian decline seem to be due to infections %ith chrytid fun:i, %hich flourish at cooler temperatures& An e5cellent revie% of this comple5 issue may be found in ;arvell, et al&, (2 2*& 9here may be a lin4 bet%een au:mented carbon dio5ide levels and mar4ed increase in the density of lianas in Ama)onian forests& 9his relationship is su::ested by the fact that :ro%th rates of lianas are hi:hly sensitive to 2O2 levels& As lianas become more dense, tree mortality rises, but mortality is not eMual amon: species because lianas preferentially :ro% on certain species& 1ecause of this biodiversity may be reduced by increased mortality in some species but not others (Phillips, et al&, 2 2*& f& Aorest fra)mentat&on# 9he fra:mentation of forests is a

:eneral conseMuence of the hapha)ard lo::in: and a:ricultural land conversion %hich is occurrin: every%here, but especially in tropical forests& 7hen forests are cut into smaller and smaller pieces, there are many conseMuences, some of %hich may be unanticipated& i* Fra:mentation decreases habitat simply throu:h loss of land area, reducin: the probability of maintainin: effective reproductive units of plant and animal populations & /ost tropical trees are pollinated by animals, and therefore the maintenance of adeMuate pollinator population levels is essential for forest health& 7hen a forest becomes fra:mented, trees of many species are isolated because their pollinators cannot cross the unforested areas& 3nder these conditions, the trees in the fra:ments %ill then become inbred and lose :enetic variability and vi:or& Other species, %hich have
more %ide(ran:in: pollinators, may suffer less from fra:mentation& For instance, the pollen of several species of stran:ler fi:s (the fruit of %hich is an essential element in the diets of many animals* is dispersed by %asps over distances as :reat as !@&2 4m (0ason, ;erre, T ;amric4, !??B*& 9hus breedin: units of these fi:s are e5tremely lar:e, comprisin: hundreds of plants located in hu:e areas of forest& Csolated fi: populations seem to survive and help to maintain fru:ivore numbers (if not diversity*, so lon: as the number of trees %ithin the ran:e of the %asps does not fall belo% a critical minimum& /ost species are not so tolerant, ho%ever& Animals, particularly lar:e ones, cannot maintain themselves in small

fra:mented forests& /any lar:e mammals have hu:e ran:es and reMuire e5tensive areas of intact forest to obtain sufficient food, or to find
suitable nestin: sites& Additionally, their mi:rations may be interrupted by fra:mentation& 9hese animals are also much more susceptible to huntin: in forest fra:ments, %hich accounts for much of the decline in animal populations in rainforests & +pecies e5tinctions occur more rapidly in

fra:ments, for these reasons, and also because species depend upon each other& 9he dissection of forests into fra:ments in certain parts of the Ama)on has led to e5treme huntin: pressures on peccaries, for instance, and in some places %here they are locally e5tinct, three species of fro:s have also disappeared, since they depended upon peccary %allo%s for breedin: ponds& 9he absence of lar:e predator species leads to imbalances in prey populations, and, since
many of the prey species are seed(eaters, to declines in the population levels of many plant species& 9he prey, no% at hi:h population levels, consume most available seeds, leavin: fe% to :erminate& On small islands created after dam construction on the 2ha:res -iver in Panama, even lar:e seed predators could not survive, and after E years, the former mi5ed tropical forest has become a forest of lar:e(seeded plants only (9erbor:h, !??2b*& As 9erbor:h states, and %e should attend to this lesson, 6istortions in any lin4 of the interaction chain %ill induce chan:es in the remainin: lin4s& (p& 2B?*

$&o%&+ers&t' loss &ne+&ta3le

Nuclear War MICHIGAN 7WS 2013 50/221 D&+ers&tasF 10 Cnternational collaborative pro'ect %ith the :oal of providin: accurate scientific information and predictive models of the status of biodiversity and sustainability (2ontinuin: biodiversity loss predicted but could be slo%ed, ! (2F(! , Phys&or:, http#$$phys&or:$ne%s$2 ! (! (biodiversity(loss&htmlOn-lv*$$QP A ne% analysis of several ma'or :lobal studies of future species shifts and losses foresees inevitable continuin: decline of biodiversity durin: the 2!st century but offers ne% hope that it could be slo%ed if emer:in: policy choices are pursued& Ked by
e5perts ;enriMue /i:uel Pereira and Paul Keadley, the 2"(member scientific team from nine countries, under the auspices of 6CQG-+C9A+, 30GP( 72/2 and the secretariat of the 216 compared results from five recent :lobal environmental assessments and a %ide ran:e of peer(revie%ed literature e5aminin: li4ely future chan:es in biodiversity& Published today in the 'ournal +cience, the analysis found universal a:reement across the studies that fundamental

chan:es are needed in society to avoid hi:h ris4 of e5tinctions F declinin: populations in many species, and lar:e scale shifts in species distributions in the future& +ays 6r& Keadley, of the 3niversity Paris(+ud, France# <9here is no Muestion that business(as(usual development path%ays %ill lead to catastrophic biodiversity loss L Gven optimistic scenarios for this century consistently predict e5tinctions and shrin4in: populations of many speciesLM No t(res(ol%2 t(e&r researc(ers lac# an un%erstan%&n) of (o" to sol+e 3&o%&+ers&t' -AIF 12 Gner:y Alternatives Cndia (9op Priorities in 1iodiversity +cience A:reed, GAC, /arch 2?, http#$$%%%&eai&in$"F $ne%s$pa:es$@"D *$$QP 2reatin: criteria to identify, monitor, and report the most ur:ent cases of biodiversity and ecosystem service loss and ho% humanity can avoid or miti:ate the problems& -esearchers today lac4 a frame%or4 to identify the most serious cases of biodiversity loss, %hatAs causin: them, critical tippin: points, the people most at ris4, and potential interventions ( includin: ho% to adapt to a fait accompli in some situations& Cmprovin: human efforts to defend biodiversity and ecosystem services in the midst of :lobal chan:e, %hile reco:ni)in: resource scarcity and competin: demands& 9his includes accountable :overnance and mana:ement systems %ell informed of the trade(offs involved in decisions, studyin: ho% humanity in the past
maintained biodiversity in the face of environmental and social chan:es, and promotin: individual human behaviour to miti:ate and adapt to biodiversity and ecosystem service losses&

,(e&r &mpact cla&ms are "ron)2 "e can7t full' compre(en% 3&o%&+ers&t' NSAF 12 0ational +cience Foundation (+temmin: the 9ide of 1iodiversity Koss on Garth, 0ational +cience Foundation, +eptember 2@, http#$$%%%&nsf&:ov$ne%s$ne%sLsumm&'spH cntnLidS!2D@?D*$$QP 1iodiversity research has often focused on a sin:le dimension& For e5ample, investi:ators have concentrated on the ta5onomic diversity or phylo:enetic history of a clade (an ancestor and all its descendants*, the :enetic diversity of a population or a species, or the functional role of a ta5on (a :roup of one or more populations of or:anisms* in an ecosystem& Althou:h this research has yielded important advances, hu:e :aps e5ist in our understandin: of biodiversity& 7e 4no% little about ho% these various dimensions, individually and in concert, contribute to environmental health, ecosystem stability, productivity and resilience, and biolo:ical adaptation to rapid environmental chan:e& Mult&ple alt causes to 3&o%&+ers&t'2 plan %oesn7t o+ercome t(em NSAF 12 0ational +cience Foundation (+temmin: the 9ide of 1iodiversity Koss on Garth, 0ational +cience Foundation, +eptember 2@, http#$$%%%&nsf&:ov$ne%s$ne%sLsumm&'spH cntnLidS!2D@?D*$$QP 9he pace of discovery, ho%ever, is increasin:ly offset by the rapid and permanent loss of diversity& -easons for biodiversity loss include climate chan:e, over(e5ploitation of natural resources, <planetary re(en:ineerin:<((such as land(use chan:e, %ater diversions, coastal development, fertili)er use((and the intentional or unintentional movements of species such that they become invasive& 7ith biodiversity loss, humanity is losin: lin4s in the %eb of life that provide ecosystem services,
forfeitin: opportunities to understand the history and future of the livin: %orld and :ivin: up opportunities for future beneficial discoveries in food, fiber, fuel, pharmaceuticals and bio(inspired innovation&

Status 8uo sol+es2 t(e D&mens&ons !ro)ram colla3orates "&t( ma:or pro)rams an% )lo3al countr&es to pre+ent 3&o%&+ers&t' loss

Nuclear War MICHIGAN 7WS 2013 51/221 NSAF 12 0ational +cience Foundation (+temmin: the 9ide of 1iodiversity Koss on Garth, 0ational +cience Foundation, +eptember 2@, http#$$%%%&nsf&:ov$ne%s$ne%sLsumm&'spH cntnLidS!2D@?D*$$QP Kife on Garth is astoundin: in its diversity& 6espite centuries of discovery, ho%ever, the vast ma'ority of the planetAs biodiversity remains un4no%n&Only a fe% years a:o, scientists shared the vie% that GarthAs biodiversity %as so vast that it mi:ht be beyond catalo:in:, much less understandin:& 9hatAs no lon:er the case&9o characteri)e the lesser(4no%n aspects of the diversity of life on Garth, the 0ational +cience Foundation has a%arded !@ :rants totalin: [2F&@ million in the third year of its 6imensions of 1iodiversity pro:ram&0+FAs 6irectorates for 1iolo:ical +ciences and =eosciences, and Office of Cnternational +cience and Gn:ineerin: support the pro:ram& 6imensions of 1iodiversity is part of 0+FAs +cience, Gn:ineerin: and Gducation for +ustainability investment&9he 6imensions pro:ram has also formed a partnership %ith 0A+A, %hich co(funds pro'ects that use its remote(sensin: platforms& 9he :lobal importance of biodiversity is reflected in further partnerships %ith fundin: a:encies in 2hina and 1ra)il, %hich support 6imensions collaborators in those countries&<1y establishin: net%or4s of interdisciplinary, :lobally(en:a:ed scientists, the 6imensions of 1iodiversity pro:ram %ill have a lastin: effect on biodiversity science,< says John 7in:field, 0+F assistant director for 1iolo:ical +ciences& <9he pro:ram has the potential to transform the %ay %e conduct biolo:ical research&< 9his yearAs a%ardees %ill study sub'ects as diverse as the biota of the Ama)on and its environment, ho% nutrient input drives biodiversity in 2hinaAs e5tremely o5y:en( deprived((or eutrophic((Ka4e 9aihu, the components of tree biodiversity, and the linea:e of species in ;a%aii&<9he innovative and interdisciplinary teams of the 6imensions of 1iodiversity pro:ram may accomplish in ! years %hat, %ith a piecemeal approach, %ould have ta4en D years((a half(century %e can no lon:er afford to %ait,< sa's oann @os#os#&F NSA %eput' ass&stant %&rector for $&olo)&cal Sc&encesLA%+ances &n t(e a3&l&t' to
collectF anal'9e an% &nte)rate 3&olo)&cal %ata (a+e pro+&%e% researc(ers "&t( ne" tools to e1pan% #no"le%)e of -art(Ns 3&o%&+ers&t' an% to re+olut&on&9e our un%erstan%&n) of t(e l&+&n) "orl%L

Warm&n) &s an alt cause to 3&o%&+ers&t'2 stu%&es pro+e S@INHF 11 +enc4enber: -esearch Cnstitute and 0atural ;istory /useum (=lobal 7armin: /ay 2ause ;i:her Koss of 1iodiversity 9han Previously 9hou:ht, Alpha=alileo Foundation, Au:ust 2@, http#$$%%%&alpha:alileo&or:$Qie%Ctem&asp5HCtemCdS!! B22T2ulture2odeSen*$$QP Cf :lobal %armin: continues as e5pected, it is estimated that almost a third of all flora and fauna species %orld%ide could become e5tinct& +cientists from the 1iodiversity and 2limate -esearch 2entre (1iodiversitit und >lima Forschun:s)entrum, 1i>(F* and the +G02>G01G-= =esellschaft fjr 0atur4unde discovered that the proportion of actual biodiversity loss should Muite clearly be revised up%ards# by 2 B , more than B I of :enetic diversity %ithin species may disappear in certain :roups of or:anisms, accordin: to researchers in the title story of the 'ournal 0ature 2limate 2han:e& 9he study is the first %orld(%ide to Muantify the loss of biolo:ical diversity on the basis of :enetic diversity& /ost common models on the effects of climate chan:e on flora and fauna concentrate on <classically< described species, in other
%ords :roups of or:anisms that are clearly separate from each other morpholo:ically& 3ntil no%, ho%ever, so(called cryptic diversity has not been ta4en into account& Ct encompasses the diversity of :enetic variations and deviations %ithin described species, and can only be researched fully since the development of molecular(:enetic methods& As %ell as the diversity of ecosystems and species, these :enetic variations are a central part of :lobal biodiversity& Cn a pioneerin: study, scientists from the 1iodiversity and 2limate -esearch 2entre (1i>(F* and the +enc4enber: =esellschaft fjr 0atur4unde have no% e5amined the influence of :lobal %armin: on :enetic diversity %ithin species& 9he distribution of nine Guropean aMuatic insect species, %hich still e5ist in the head%aters of streams in many hi:h mountain areas in 2entral and 0orthern Gurope, %as modelled& 9hey have already been %idely researched, %hich means that the re:ional distribution of the inner(

species diversity and the e5istence of morpholo:ically cryptic, evolutionary lines are already 4no%n& Cf :lobal %armin: does ta4e place in the ran:e that is predicted by the Cnter:overnmental Panel on 2limate 2han:e (CP22*, these creatures %ill be pushed bac4 to only a fe% small refu:ia, e&:& in +candinavia and the Alps, by 2 B , accordin: to model calculations& Cf GuropeAs climate %arms up by up to t%o de:rees only, ei:ht of the species e5amined %ill survive, at least in some areasR %ith an increase in temperature of @ de:rees, si5 species %ill probably survive in some areas by 2 B & ;o%ever, due to the e5tinction of local populations, :enetic diversity %ill decline to a much more dramatic e5tent& Accordin: to the most pessimistic
pro'ections, B@ percent of all :enetic variations %ould die out by 2 B R in the <best case,< t%o(thirds of all :enetic variations %ould disappear& 9he aMuatic insects that %ere e5amined are representative for many species of mountainous re:ions of 2entral Gurope&

,(e' cant cla&m e1t&nct&on2 emp&r&cs %&spro+e an% sc&ence &sn7t %e+elope% enou)( to pre%&ct GuterlF 2/22 e5ecutive editor of +cientific American and author of 9he Fate of the +pecies (Fred, 2an ;umans =o G5tinctH, +late, February 22, 2 !", http#$$%%%&slate&com$articles$healthLandLscience$animalLforecast$2 !"$ 2$humanLe5tinctionLcouldLaL massLe5tinctionL4illLhomoLsapiens&html*$$QP

Nuclear War MICHIGAN 7WS 2013 52/221 /ass e5tinctions have happened five or si5 times (dependin: on ho% you count*& Ct8s a 4ind of %ipin: the slate clean and startin: ane%& 9he death of the dinosaurs and the rise of mammals came from such an event FF million years a:o, %hen a meteorite fell in %hat is no% the Pucatan& /any scientists believe that there may no% be a ne% mass e5tinction event under %ay, caused by ;omo sapiens& Gver since humans fanned out from Africa and be:an to ta4e over the %orld, many species have disappeared& 9he mammals that inhabited the Pleistocene until about !!,E
years a:oJthe %ooly mammoths and the saber(toothed ti:ersJdied most li4ely at the hands of human hunters& 9he passen:er pi:eon, %hich once numbered in the billions, is :one&. 9he rhino8s days appear to be numbered, as do the bluefin tuna8s, and so forth& 9he current rate of species

loss, by some estimates, is 2 a day, but nobody 4no%s %ith any precision& 7hether this tra'ectory ta4es us to mass e5tinction is not somethin: science can ans%er definitively at the moment& No e1t&nct&on2 (umans can a%apt an% emp&r&cs pro+e GuterlF 12 e5ecutive editor of +cientific American and author of 9he Fate of the +pecies (Fred, 9he Fate of the +pecies# 7hy the ;uman -ace /ay 2ause its O%n G5tinction and ;o% 7e 2an +top Ct, 1loomsbury Publishin:, p& B@(BD* ;umans are a hardy species, and %e8ve thrived in part because %e are so adaptable to circumstances& 7e are capable of eatin: 'ust anythin: and everythin:& Cn a recent study of the +ana4 Csland ecosystem, in Alas4a, over the past si5 thousand years or so, hunter(:atherers have a uniMue place vis(d(vis other species& Jennifer 6unne, an ecolo:ist at the +ante Fe Cnstitute in 0e% /e5ico, has been %or4in: up a mathematical model of the +ana4 ecosystem, and it8s apparent from her %or4 %hy humans have done so %ell& 9he +ana4 archipela:o stretches %est%ard from Alas4a across the Pacific Ocean to%ard +iberia& 9he settlers there came over %hen the :laciers of the last ice a:e covered most of the
northern hemisphere, and stayed, livin: off the bounty of the intertidal pools, and the seals and sea lions and fish off shore, the salmon of the fresh%ater streams, and bird e::s of the tundra& A Muic4 survey of hunter(:atherers on +ana4 ma4es it clear that they %ere both

super(:eneralists and super(omnivores& As super(:eneralists, they ate a %ide variety of different thin:s than most other species& As super(omnivores, they ate more thin:s at every level of the food %eb, from sea%eed at the bottom to sea lions at the top, and 'ust about everythin: in bet%een& 6unne and her collea:ues are findin: that in a hunter(:atherer society, this Muality %or4s to the advanta:e of an ecosystem& 6unne has been reconstructin: the seafood menu of the
typical +ana4 hunter(:atherer of si5 thousand years a:o, and more :enerally on %hat all the creatures on hat menu ate& /uch of this information is already in the scientific literatureR %hat researchers don8t find there they loo4 for in the field& 9hey8ll s%eep a net throu:h a stream to catch aMuatic insects and dissect them to see %hat8s in their :uts& 1ut data on the role of humans in the ecosystem had not been :athered before& 6unne and the other +ana4 researchers %ent to a %ide variety or sources to :lean %hat they could about the fish and plants that +ana4 hunter(:atherers ate& 9hey tal4ed to the archaeolo:ists, ethno:raphers, and present(day Aleuts %ho live in the re:ion& 9hey du: into ancient trash heaps of discarded shells and fish bones and e5crement, preserved over the millennia, for clues as to %hat the +ana4s ate& 9hey too4 inventory of all the species that inhabit the archipela:os no% and %hat they 4no% e5isted a fe% thousand years a:o& 9hey found that the food system in +ana4 has been remar4ably stable for thousands of years, %hich is surprisin: considerin: ho% radically the rest of the %orld has chan:e&

No e1t&nct&on2 (umans can sur+&+e 3ecause t(e' eat at all le+els of ecos'stems GuterlF 12 e5ecutive editor of +cientific American and author of 9he Fate of the +pecies (Fred, 9he Fate of the +pecies# 7hy the ;uman -ace /ay 2ause its O%n G5tinction and ;o% 7e 2an +top Ct, 1loomsbury Publishin:, p& BD(BF* 6unne is one of a relatively ne% breed of ecolo:ist %ho has a numbers sense& +he8s an e5pert in the mathematical relationships that describe net%or4s( the same mathematics that underlies social net%or4s such as Faceboo4 and the phone net%or4, but also net%or4s of plants and animals that eat each other& Pou can loo4 at food net%or4s as a simple hierarchy, %ith plan4ton at the bottom and humans at the top, but those simple food %ebs don8t describe the real %orld very %ell& ;umans, for instance, feed at all levels& 7e eat predators at the top, plants at the bottom (thin4 sea%eed*, and even fun:us (mushrooms*& 7e eat herbivores (co%s* and the plants they eat (corn :rass*& No e1t&nct&on 3&o%&+ers&t' &s reco+er&n) an% no pro3a3&l&t' -conom&stF 04 /ultinational media company speciali)ed in international business and

%orld affairs information (+econd Kife 1iolo:ists 6ebate the +cale of G5tinction in the 7orld8s 9ropical Forests, 9he Gconomist, January !D,

http#$$%%%&economist&com$node$!2?2F @2*$$QP A -A-G piece of :ood ne%s from the %orld of conservation# the :lobal e5tinction crisis may have been overstated& 9he %orld is unli4ely to lose ! species a day, or half of all species in the lifetime of people no% alive, as some have claimed& 9he bad ne%s, thou:h, is that the luc4y survivors are tiny tropical insects that fe% people care about& 9he species
that are bein: lost rapidly are the lar:e vertebrates that conservationists %ere %orried about in the first place& 9his ne% vie% of the prospects for biodiversity emer:ed from a symposium held this %ee4 at the +mithsonian Cnstitution in 7ashin:ton, 62, but the controversy over ho% bad thin:s really are has been bre%in: since 2 F& 9hat %as %hen Joseph 7ri:ht of the +mithsonian 9ropical -esearch Cnstitute in Panama and ;elene /uller(Kandau of the 3niversity of /innesota first su::ested that the dama:e mi:ht not be as :rim as some feared& 9hey reasoned that because population

Nuclear War MICHIGAN 7WS 2013 53/221 :ro%th is slo%in: in many tropical countries, and people are movin: to cities, the pressure to cut do%n primary rainforest is fallin: and a:riculturally mar:inal land is bein: abandoned, allo%in: trees to :ro%& 9his re:ro%n secondary forest is crucial to the pairAs analysis& 7ithin a fe% decades of land bein: abandoned, half of the ori:inal biomass has returned& 6ependin: on %hat else is nearby, these ne% forests may then be colonised by animals and additional plants, and thus support many of the species found in the ori:inal forest& 6r 7ri:ht and 6r
/uller(Kandau therefore rec4on that in 2 " reasonably unbro4en tropical forest %ill still cover more than a third of its natural ran:e, and after that date its areaJat least in Katin America and AsiaJcould increase& /uch of this %oodland %ill be secondary forest, but even so they su::est that in Africa only !F("DI of tropical(forest species %ill become e5tinct by 2 " , in Asia, 2!(2@I and, in Katin America, fe%er still& Once forest cover does

start increasin:, the rate of e5tinction should d%indle& ,(e&r &mpact &s alarm&st an% emp&r&call' %en&e% Bale&taF 07 Gnvironmental +tudies Fello% and Assistant Professor of a:ricultural and biosystems en:ineerin: at Co%a +tate 3niversity (Amy, <;ysteriaAs ;istory# Gnvironmental Alarmism in 2onte5t,< Pacific -esearch Cnstitute, http#$$%%%&pacificresearch&or:$docKib$2 E ?2 L;ysteriaL;istory&pdf*$$QP Apocalyptic stories about the irreparable, catastrophic dama:e that humans are doin: to the natural environment have been around for a lon: time& 9hese hysterics often have some basis in reality, but are blo%n up to
illo:ical and ridiculous proportions& Part of the reason they8re so appealin: is that they have the rin: of plausibility alon: %ith the intri:ue of a horror flic4& Cn many cases,

the alarmists identify a le:itimate issue, ta4e the possible conseMuences to an e5treme, and advocate action on the basis of these e5treme pro'ections& Cn !?E2, the editor of the 'ournal Nature pointed out the problem %ith the typical alarmist approach# \Alarmists8] most common error is to suppose that the %orst %ill al%ays happen&B2 1ut of course, if the %orst al%ays happened, the human race %ould have died out lon: a:o& 7hen alarmism has a basis in reality, the challen:e becomes to ta4e appropriate action based

on that reality, not on the hysteria& 9he aftermath of Silent Spring offers e5amples of both sorts of policy reactions# a reasoned response to a le:itimate problem and a 4nee('er4 response to the hysteria& On the positive side, Silent Spring brou:ht an end to the :eneral belief that all synthetic chemicals in use for purposes ran:in: from insect control to household cleanin: %ere uniformly %onderful, and it ushered in an a:e of increased caution on their appropriate use& Cn the second chapter of her famous boo4, 2arson %rote, Ct is not my contention that chemical insecticides must never be used& C do contend thatN %e have allo%ed these chemicals to be used %ith little or no advance investi:ation of their effect on soil, %ater, %ildlife, and man himself& Cndeed, 2arson seemed to advocate reasoned response to ri:orous scientific investi:ation, and in fact this did become the modern approach to environmental chemical licensure and monitorin:& An hour(lon: 21+ documentary on pesticides %as aired durin: the hei:ht of the furor over Silent Spring& Cn the documentary, 6r& Pa:e 0icholson, a %ater(pollution e5pert %ith the Public ;ealth +ervice, %asn8t able to ans%er ho% lon: pesticides persist in %ater once they enter it, or the e5tent to %hich pesticides contaminate :round%ater supplies& 9oday, this sort of information is :athered throu:h routine testin: of chemicals for use in the environment& Cronically, ri:orous investi:ation %as not used in the decision to ban 669, primarily due to the hysteria Silent Spring :enerated& Cn this e5ample, the hysteria too4 on a life of its o%n, even trumpin: the author8s ori:inal intent& 9here %as, as %e have seen, a more sinister and tra:ic response to the hysteria :enerated by Silent Spring& 2ertain developin: countries, under si:nificant pressure from the 3nited +tates, abandoned the use of 669& 9his decision resulted in millions of deaths from malaria and other insect(borne diseases& Cn the absence of pressure to abandon the use of 669, these lives %ould have been spared& Ct %ould certainly have been possible to desi:n policies reMuirin: caution and safe practices in the use of supplemental chemicals in the environment, %ithout pronouncin: a death sentence on millions of people& A ma'or challen:e in developin: appropriate responses to le:itimate problems is that alarmism catches people8s attention and dra%s them in& Alarmism is :iven more %ei:ht than it deserves, as policy ma4ers attempt to appease their constituency and the media& Ct polari)es the debaters into :roups of believers and s4eptics, so that reasoned, fact(based compromise is difficult to achieve& 0either of these aspects of alarmism is healthy for the development of appropriate policy& Further, alarmist responses to valid problems ris4 foreclosin: potentially useful responses based on in:enuity and pro:ress& 9here are many e5amples from the ener:y sector %here, in the presence of economic, efficiency, or societal demands, the mar4etplace has responded by developin: better alternatives& 9hat is not to say that %e should blissfully sMuander our ener:y resourcesR on the contrary, %e should be careful to utili)e them %isely& 1ut ener:y(resource hysteria should not lead us to circumvent scientific advancement by cherry(pic4in: and favorin: one particular replacement technolo:y at the e5pense of other promisin: technolo:ies& Gnvironmental alarmism should be ta4en for %hat it isJa natural tendency of some portion of the public to latch onto the %orst, and most unli4ely, potential outcome& reality, not hysteria&

Alarmism should not be used as the basis for policy & 7here a real problem e5ists, solutions should be based on

-cos'stem res&l&enc' pre+ents collapse Da+&%sonF 2# Ph6 student in the =raduate =roup in Gcolo:y at the 3niversity of 2alifornia (2arlos, Gconomic =ro%th and the Gnvironment, 1ioscience 0e%spaper, Qolume D 0o& D, /ay, http#$$online&sfsu&edu$carlosd$davidson(biosci &P6F*$$QP 1iodiversity limits& 9he ori:inal rivet metaphor (Ghrlich and Ghrlich !?B!* referred to species e5tinction and biodiversity loss as a limit to human population and the economy& A %ave of species e5tinctions is occurrin: that is unprecedented in human history (7ilson !?BB, !??2, -eid and /iller !?B?*& 9he decline of biodiversity represents irreplaceable

and incalculable losses to future :enerations of humans& Cs biodiversity loss a case of limits, as su::ested by the rivet metaphor, or is it a continuum of de:radation %ith local tears, as su::ested by the tapestry metaphorH Cn the rivet metaphor, it is not the loss of species by itself that is the proposed limit but rather some sort of ecosystem collapse that %ould be tri::ered by the species loss& 1ut it is unclear that biodiversity loss %ill lead to

ecosystem collapse& -esearch in this area is still in its infancy, and results from the limited e5perimental studies are mi5ed& +ome studies sho% a positive relationship bet%een diversity and some aspect of ecosy stem function, such as the rate of nitro:en cyclin: (>areiva !??F, 9ilman et al& !??F*& Others support the redundant species concept (Ka%ton and 1ro%n !??", Andren et al& !??D*, %hich holds that above some lo% number, additional species are redundant in terms of ecosystem function& +till other studies support the idiosyncratic species model (Ka%ton !??@*, in %hich loss of some species reduces some aspect of ecosystem

function, %hereas loss of others may increase that aspect of ecosystem function& 9he relationship bet%een biodiversity and ecosystem function is undoubtedly more comple5 than any simple metaphor& 0onetheless, C believe that the tapestry metaphor provides a more useful vie% of biodiversity loss than the rivet metaphor& A species e5tinction is li4e a thread pulled from the tapestry& 7ith each thread lost, the tapestry :radually becomes threadbare& 9he loss of some species may lead to local tears& Althou:h everythin: is lin4ed to everythin: else, ecosystems are not

delicately balanced, cloc4li4e mechanisms in %hich the loss of a part leads to collapse& For e5ample, C study 2alifornia fro:s, some of %hich are disappearin:& Althou:h it is possible that the disappearances si:nal some as yet un4no%n threat to humans (the minerAs canary ar:ument*, the loss of the fro:s themselves is unli4ely to have ma'or ecosystem effects& 9he situation is the same for most rare or:anisms, %hich ma4e up the bul4 of threatened and endan:ered species& For e5ample, if the blac4 toad (1ufo e5sul* %ere to disappear from the fe% desert sprin:s in

Nuclear War MICHIGAN 7WS 2013 56/221 %hich it lives, even careful study %ould be unli4ely to reveal ecosystem chan:es & 9o ar:ue that there are not limits is not to
claim that biodiversity losses do not matter& -ather, in callin: for a stop to the destruction, it is the losses themselves that count, not a putative cliff that humans %ill fall off of some%heredo%n the road&

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MICHIGAN 7WS 2013

Deforestat&on
Status 8uo sol+es %eforestat&on -r&c#sonF 13 +enior Public -elations -epresentative, 3niversity of /ichi:an 0e%s +ervice (Jim, =ood 0e%s 1lo:# Protected areas successfully prevent deforestation in Ama)on rainforest, 3niversity of /ichi:an, "$!2, http#$$%%%&ri:htsandresources&or:$blo:&phpHidS!FBD*$$+P +trictly protected areas such as national par4s and biolo:ical reserves have been more effective at reducin: deforestation in the Ama)on rainforest than so(called sustainable(use areas that allo% for controlled resource e5traction, t%o 3niversity of /ichi:an researchers and their collea:ues have found& Cn addition, protected areas established primarily to safe:uard the ri:hts and livelihoods of indi:enous people performed especially %ell in places %here deforestation pressures are hi:h& 9he 3(/(led study, %hich found that all forms of protection successfully limit deforestation, is scheduled for online publication /arch !! in the Proceedin:s of the 0ational Academy of +ciences&9he lead author is 2hristoph 0olte, a doctoral candidate at the 3(/ +chool of 0atural -esources and Gnvironment& 2o(authors include Arun A:ra%al, a professor of natural resources at +0-G&Perhaps the bi::est surprise is the findin: that indi:enous lands perform the best %hen it comes to lo%er deforestation in conte5ts of hi:h deforestation pressure, A:ra%al said& /any observers have su::ested that :rantin: substantial autonomy and land ri:hts to indi:enous people over vast tracts of land in the Ama)on %ill lead to hi:h levels of deforestation because indi:enous :roups %ould %ant to ta4e advanta:e of the resources at their disposal&9his study sho%s that J based on current evidence J such fears are misplaced, he said&Preventin: deforestation of rainforests is a :oal for conservin: biodiversity and, more recently, for reducin: carbon emissions in the 1ra)ilian Ama)on, %hich covers an area of nearly 2 million sMuare miles& After ma4in: international headlines for historically hi:h Ama)on deforestation rates bet%een 2 and 2 D, 1ra)il achieved radical reductions in deforestation rates in the second half of the past decade& Althou:h part of those reductions %ere attributed to price declines of a:ricultural commodities, recent analyses also sho% that re:ulatory :overnment policies J includin: a drastic increase in enforcement activities and the e5pansion and stren:thenin: of protected(area net%or4s J all contributed si:nificantly to the observed reductions&Cn their study, the 3(/ researchers and their collea:ues used ne% remote(sensin:(based datasets from 2?2 protected areas in the 1ra)ilian Ama)on, alon: %ith a sophisticated statistical analysis, to assess the effectiveness of different types of protected areas& 9hey loo4ed at three cate:ories of protected areas# strictly protected areas, sustainable use areas and indi:enous lands&+trictly protected areas J state and national biolo:ical stations, biolo:ical reserves, and national

Deforestat&on &s %ecl&n&n) &n t(e status 8uo f&)ures are pre%&ct&+e of an o+erall tren% A!F 12 (Associated Press, Ama)on deforestation hits record lo%, 9he =uardian, !!$2B, http#$$%%%&:uardian&co&u4$environment$2 !2$nov$2B$ama)on(deforestation(record(lo%*$$+P 6eforestation in 1ra)ilAs Ama)on rainforest has dropped to its lo%est level in 2@ years, the :overnment said on 9uesday& +atellite ima:ery sho%ed that !,E?B sMuare miles (@,FDF sMuare 4ilometres* of the Ama)on %ere deforested bet%een Au:ust 2 !! and July 2 !2, environment minister, C)abella 9ei5eira said, 2EI less than the 2,@EB sM miles (F,@!B sM 4m* deforested a year earlier& 1ra)ilAs 0ational Cnstitute for +pace -esearch said the deforestation level is the lo%est since it started measurin: the destruction of the rainforest in !?BB& +i5ty(three percent of the rainforestAs 2&@m sM miles (F&!m sM 4m* are in 1ra)il& 9he space institute said that the latest fi:ures sho% that 1ra)il is close to its 2 2 tar:et of reducin: deforestation by B I from !?? levels& 3p to July 2 !2, deforestation dropped by EFI& =eor:e Pinto, a director of Cbama, 1ra)ilAs environmental protection a:ency, told reporters that better enforcement of environmental la%s and improved surveillance technolo:y are behind the drop in deforestation levels& Pinto said that in the !2(month period a total of 2, sMuare metres of ille:ally felled timber %ere sei)ed by :overnment a:ents& 9he impounded lumber is sold in auctions and the money obtained is invested in environmental preservation pro:rammes& 9ei5eira said that startin: ne5t year, 1ra)il %ill start usin: better satellite monitorin: technolo:y to detect ille:al lo::in: and slash(and(burn activity and issue fines&

Nuclear War MICHIGAN 7WS 2013 5*/221 <Over the past several years 1ra)il has made a hu:e effort to contain deforestation and the latest fi:ures testify to its success,< said Adalberto Qerhssimo, a senior researcher at Cma)on, an environmental %atchdo: a:ency& <9he deforestation fi:ures are e5tremely positive, for they point to a consistent do%n%ard trend&< <9he numbers disprove the ar:ument that deforestation is necessary for the countryAs economy to :ro%,< he said& <6eforestation has been droppin: steadily for the past four years %hile the economy has :ro%n&<

Glo3al %eforestat&on rates %ecl&n&n) status 8uo efforts sol+e ,a'lorF 11 Associate Professor and Forest Products G5tension +pecialist in Forestry, 7ildlife T Fisheries, 3niversity of 9ennessee (Adam /&, =ood ne%s on :lobal deforestation, 2olle:e of A:ricultural +ciences and 0atural -esources, 3niversity of 9ennessee, ! $!?, http#$$%eb&ut4&edu$kmtaylo2?$pa:es$:lobal I2 deforestationI2 rateI2 declinin:&html*$$+P 9he loss of forests can alter ecosystems and deprive people of the many benefits provided by trees& 6eforestation is a serious on:oin: problemR ho%ever, the :ood ne%s is that the :lobal deforestation rate appears to be :oin: do%n& People have been usin: trees and impactin: forests throu:hout history, and concerns over deforestation have al%ays accompanied our heavy reliance on forest products& -esponses to these concerns over time have included the development of the science of forestry, the establishment of forest reserves such as the 3+ national forests and, most recently, certified forest pro:rams& At the same time, there are more people on earth, %ho are consumin: more %ood products& +o, ho% are the forests farin:H 9he 3nited 0ations8 Food and A:riculture Or:ani)ation (30FAO* has been re:ularly reportin: on the e5tent and condition of the %orld8s forests over the past !D years (http#$$%%%&fao&or:$forestry$sofo$en$*& 3sin: the best available data, they have provided estimates of the loss of forest land (deforestation* for individual countries and for the %hole %orld& 9he data confirm %hat most people %ould e5pect# %e have less forest area on earth than %e used to& ;o%ever, loo4in: that the reports over time reveals an encoura:in: trend# the rate of :lobal deforestation is slo%in:& 2aveat# 2han:in: definitions of forest can also influence the data& 6eforestation is also a locali)ed phenomenon& 9here are parts of the %orld %here forest are bein: lost at alarmin:ly hi:h rates, e:& the Ama)on river basin in +outh America, the 2on:o river basin in Africa and in Cndonesia& 1y contrast there are places on earth %here there is net ^afforestation8 or :ain of forests, e: in 2hina& Cn the 3nited +tates, the forest area is stable but the amount of timber has been steadily increasin:& 9he site( specific nature of deforestation su::ests that solutions to the problem should be focused also& Finally, the evidence indicates that the causes of deforestation are not e5cessive :lobal %ood consumption but rather poverty and a lac4 of la% enforcement in certain forest areas& 9hus, it is li4ely that it is on:oin: efforts to alleviate poverty and to prevent ille:al lo::in: that are responsible for the deforestation rate movin: in the ri:ht direction& 7e can hope that continued efforts %ill eventually stop deforestation and return forests to barren lands& Status 8uo sol+es %eforestat&on satell&te %etect&on an% str&ct le)al measures Carr&n)tonF 10 ;ead of Gnvironment, =uardian (6amian, Ama)on deforestation in dramatic decline, official fi:ures sho%, =uardian, E$2", http#$$%%%&:uardian&co&u4$environment$2 ! $'ul$2"$ama)on( deforestation(decline*$$+P Kar:e(scale deforestation in the Ama)on rainforest fell dramatically last year, accordin: to official fi:ures released yesterday& 6ata from satellite sensors ma4in: fortni:htly detections of only lar:er areas of forest destruction (:reater than 2D hectares* %as !,D 4m2 bet%een Au:ust 2 ? and /ay 2 ! , compared %ith ", 4m2 in the same period a year earlier& 9he 1ra)ilian environment a:ency, Cbama, %hich is responsible for protectin: the forests a:ainst ille:al lo::in:, said the drop %as due to the increased use of satellite data to spot the fellin: of trees and ne% tactics to deter lo::ers, includin: endin: their ability to hide under cloud cover& 9he full fi:ures for the year and all deforestation %ill be published on "! July& 9he areas of forest destruction are e5pected to be D, (F, 4m2, do%n from E,D 4m2 the previous year, and from 2E, 4m2 in 2 @& <7e are %innin: another victory over deforestation in the %orldAs lar:est and most important biome,< Kuciano Gvaristo, director of environmental protection, told the =uardian, %hich had been flo%n to 1ra)il by the

Nuclear War MICHIGAN 7WS 2013 57/221 1ra)ilian :overnment for the annoucement& <1efore \satellite data] %e %ere loo4in: blindly& 1ut in 2 ! , all 2@@ actions %ere based on smart :eo(processed data&< 1ut Gvaristo a:reed %ith critics of the :overnment that Cbama remains understaffed, %ith E (B enforcement officers on the :round at any one time across the vast country, %hich is nearly four times the si)e of %estern Gurope& <C %ish %e had @, ,< he said, addin: that the satellite data %as ma4in: the %or4 of officers more effective& 9he ecolo:ist Philip Fearnside, at the 0ational -esearch Cnstitute for the Ama)on in /anaus, said the decline is partly due to control measures, but also due to a drop in demand as soy and beef consumption fell and the appreciation of the 1ra)ilian real a:ainst the 3+ dollar made e5port more e5pensive to forei:n mar4ets& <6eforestation is not under control,< he said& <Prices of commodities %ill :o up after the :lobal recession& 7hen that happens you discover you do not have control&< Gvaristo re'ected that ar:ument# <9he fi:ures for 2 ! sho% hi:h commodity prices do not lead to an increase in deforestation&< 9he environment minister C)abella 9ei5eira said# <C thin4 several factors can e5plain \the drop]& 7e no% share the responsibility %ith !E ministries&< Cbama has adopted ne% tactics in the fi:ht a:ainst deforestation& Only &"2I of the 2D , fines issued by Cbama over the last 2 years have been paid& <Ct is true, than4s to the 1ra)ilian le:al system,< said Gvarista, blamin: three different appeal systems& Cbama sei)es the tools and eMuipment of suspected ille:al lo::ers %hile the le:al process plays out, and also bloc4s their access to :overnment credit, %hich is provin: hi:hly effective&

No &mpact to %eforestat&on t(e&r stu%&es are e1a))erate% Wan)F 4 +cience and technolo:y 'ournalist (3cilia, 6eforestation# 0ot +o 1ad for the 2limateH =reen 9ech /edia, !!$@, http#$$%%%&:reentechmedia&com$articles$read$deforestation(not(so(bad(for(the(climate*$$+P An oft(Muoted fi:ure to demonstrate amount of emissions caused by deforestation is an e5a::eration, accordin: to a research published by 'ournal 0ature =eoscience& A 2 E report by the 3&0&As Cnter:overnmental Panel on 2limate 2han:e said destroyin: forests in places such as 1ra)il had contributed 2 percent of the manmade carbon dio5ide emissions& 9he fi:ure became %idely used to stress the importance of forest protection& 1ut ne% research by =uido van der 7erf at the Q3 3niversity of Amsterdam sho%s that the fi:ure should be around !2 percent (see his research pa:e*& Qan der 7erf said the CP22 report used %ron: or outdated data& +pecifically, the international team of scientists %ho %or4ed on that report used fi:ures that e5a::erated the rate of tropical forest destruction& ;e told the 3&>& =uardian# <CtAs a tou:h messa:e because everybody %ould li4e to see forests better protected and it is difficult to tell them that carbon dio5ide emissions are less important than assumed& +till, the :ood ne%s of lo%er emissions is no bad ne%s for the forests&<

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MICHIGAN 7WS 2013

General -n+&ronment De)ra%at&on

NA,. sa's "arm&n) not a t(reat t(e&r e+ &s alarm&sm ,a'lor 12 ( (James /& 9aylor is mana:in: editor of Gnvironment T 2limate 0e%s, /ay 2D, 2 !2,Cssue OD!# =lobal 7armin: 0ot a +ecurity 9hreat, Accordin: to 0A9O http#$$ne%s&heartland&or:$ne%spaper( article$2 !2$ D$2D$climate(chan:e(%ee4ly(:lobal(%armin:(not(security(threat(accordin:(nato* 9he 0orth Atlantic 9reaty Or:ani)ation does not appear to consider :lobal %armin: a security threat, 2)ech
President Qaclav >laus reported at 9he ;eartland Cnstitute8s +eventh Cnternational 2onference on 2limate 2han:e (C222(E*& >laus, %ho spo4e at C222(E after participatin: in tal4s %ith 0A9O leaders /ay 2 2! in 2hica:o, told C222(E attendees, C am :lad to tell you that %e did not discuss the :lobal %armin:& Ct seems that 0A9O does not consider :lobal %armin: to be a security threat& >laus8s observations deflated :lobal %armin:

alarmists %ho often attempt to 'ustify e5pensive and far(reachin: action on :lobal %armin: by lin4in: it to alle:ed national security threats& On a similar topic, >laus observed that interest in and concern about :lobal %armin: are %anin: in Gurope&
On Friday evenin: C attended a music festival in Pra:ue and durin: the brea4 C mentioned to a :roup of people that C \am :oin:] to 2hica:o, amon: other thin:s to spea4 at this conference& 9heir reaction %as# ^=lobal %armin:H Csn8t it already overH 6oes anybody care about itH8 9hat is ho% they see it& /aybe it is a Guropean perspective& >laus said it is very important for 9he ;eartland Cnstitute and its allies to 4eep reportin: the truth about ho% :lobal %armin: is not a crisis& Ket me, therefore, start by than4in: you for 4eepin: the :lobal %armin: issue alive& 9his is an important achievement in a moment %hen it has already become half(for:otten& Ct has not happened accidentally, it %as and is planned& Ct is a part of a carefully

prepared tactic of :lobal %armin: alarmists ho% to once and for all %in their case& Cn the past t%o decades, they tried to do the opposite& 9hey %anted to be as loud as possible to arouse our fears& 0o%, %hen the %hole issue becomes more and more suspicious, it is in their interest to stop any public discussion& 9his is the reason %hy they try to pretend that ^the science is settled,8 that the debate is over& 7e should not let them do it& All en+&ronmental factors )ett&n) 3etter /om3er) 10OPh&6 in pol science (@$2!, 1'orn Garth 6ay# +mile, donAt shudderR C:nore doomsday environmentalists& 9hin:s arenAt so bad& And if rich countries
%ould %orry about the ri:ht thin:s, all the better, 3+A 9oday, Ke5is0e5is*
=iven all the tal4 of impendin: catastrophe, this may come as a surprise, but as %e approach the @ th anniversary of the first Garth 6ay, people %ho care about the environment actually have a lot to

Cn virtually every developed country, the air is more breathable and the %ater is more drin4able than it %as in !?E & Cn most of the First 7orld, deforestation has turned to reforestation& /oreover, the percenta:e of malnutrition has been reduced, and ever(more people have access to clean %ater and sanitation& Apocalyptic predictions from concerned
celebrate& Of course, thatAs not ho% the or:ani)ers of Garth 6ay 2 ! see it& Cn their vie% (to Muote a recent online call to arms*, <9he %orld is in :reater peril than ever&< 1ut consider this# environmental activists are nothin: ne%& 3ntil about ! years a:o, C too4 it for :ranted that these predictions %ere sound& Ki4e many of us, C believed that the %orld %as in a terrible state that %as only :ettin: %orse %ith each passin: day& /y thin4in: chan:ed only %hen, as as

a university lecturer, C set out %ith my students to disprove %hat C re:arded at the time the far(fetched notion that :lobal environmental conditions %ere actually improvin:& 9o our surprise, the data sho%ed us that many 4ey environmental measures %ere indeed :ettin: better& , No &mpact to t(e en+&ronment an% no sol+enc' Doremus 2# ;olly is a Professor of Ka% at 32 6avis, <9he -hetoric and -eality of 0ature Protection# 9o%ard a 0e% 6iscourse,< 7inter 2

7ashin:ton T Kee Ka% -evie% DE 7ash T Kee K& -ev& !!, le5is -eluctant to concede such losses, tellers of the ecolo:ical horror story hi:hli:ht ho% close a catastrophe mi:ht be, and ho% little %e 4no% about %hat actions mi:ht tri::er one& 1ut the apocalyptic vision is less cre%&3le to%a' t(an &t seeme% &n t(e 1470s L Althou:h it is clear that the earth is e5periencin: a mass %ave of e5tinctions , n2!" the complete el&m&nat&on of l&fe on eart( seems unl&#el'L n2!@ /&fe &s remar#a3l' ro3ust& Nor &s (uman e1t&nct&on pro3a3le any time soon& ;omo sapiens is a%apta3le to nearl' an' en+&ronment& Gven if the %orld of the future includes far fe%er species, it li4ely %ill hold people& n2!D One response to this credibility problem tones the story do%n a bit, ar:uin: not that humans %ill :o

e5tinct but that ecolo:ical disruption %ill brin: economies, and conseMuently civili)ations, to their 4nees& n2!F 1ut this too may be o+erstat&n) t(e case& /ost ecosystem functions are performe% 3' mult&ple spec&es& 9his funct&onal re%un%anc' means that a (&)( proport&on of spec&es can 3e lost "&t(out prec&p&tat&n) a collapse& n2!E
Another response drops the horrific endin: and returns to a more measured discourse of the many material benefits nature provides humanity&

Gven these more plausible tales, thou:h, suffer from an important limitation& 9hey call for nature protection only at a hi:h level of :enerality& For e5ample, human(induced increases in atmospheric carbon dio5ide levels may cause rapid chan:es in :lobal temperatures in the near future, %ith drastic conseMuences for sea levels, %eather patterns, and ecosystem services& n2!B
+imilarly, the loss of lar:e numbers of species undoubtedly reduces the :enetic library from %hich %e mi:ht in the future dra% useful resources& n2!? 1ut it is difficult to translate these insi:hts into convincin: ar:uments a:ainst any one of the small local decisions that contribute to the problems of :lobal %armin: or biodiversity loss & n22 Ct is easy to ar:ue that t(e material &mpact of an' &n%&+&%ual %ec&s&on to &ncrease carbon em&ss&ons sl&)(tl' or to %estro' a small amount of (a3&tat "&ll

3e smallL Ct is difficult to identify the specific stra% that %ill brea4 the camelAs bac4& Furthermore, no un&lateral act&on at t(e local or e+en nat&onal le+el can sol+e t(ese )lo3al pro3lems & Kocal decisionma4ers may feel paraly)ed

by the scope of the problems, or may conclude that any sacrifices they mi:ht ma4e %ill :o unre%arded if others do not restrain their actions& Cn sum, at the local level at %hich most decisions affectin: nature are made, the material discourse provides little reason to save nature& +hort of the ultimate catastrophe, the material benefits of destructive decisions freMuently %ill e5ceed their identifiable material costs& n22!

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MICHIGAN 7WS 2013

<olcanoes
!r&m&t&+e plann&n) sol+es t(e &mpact Mosle' 11 ( science presenter, %riter and e5ecutive producer for the 112 (/ichael, 7hy is there only one human speciesH, 112, F(2"(2 !!,http#$$%%%&bbc&co&u4$ne%s$science(environment(!"BE@FE!*$$16+ +upervolcanol -ecent findin:s su::est that ;omo sapiens also left Africa, around !2 , years a:o&l 7e travelled in small numbers, possibly no more than ! in the first %ave& 9hen %e spread out, %ith some eventually reachin: Gurope, then occupied by the 0eanderthals, %hile others moved east until they reached Cndia& 9here is archaeolo:ical evidence that they arrived 'ust in time for a truly cataclysmic event&l About E@, years a:o /ount 9oba, a volcano in +outh Gast Asia erupted in spectacular fashion, the bi::est e5plosion in the last t%o million years& 1ecause of its ma:nitude it is classed as a supervolcanic eruption&l 9he volcano spe%ed enou:h sulphur into the atmosphere to lo%er %orld temperatures by several de:rees and enou:h molten roc4 to cover an area the si)e of 1ritain to a depth of ! metres& l Ct also produced vast amounts of ash& 6riven by the %inds, clouds of %hite 9oba ash covered hu:e s%athes of Asia, includin: much of the Cndian subcontinent& Ct can still be found today& l 7hether it %as the effects of 9oba, or the arrival of modern humans, the eruption mar4s the hi:h tide of erectusA occupation of Asia& l Over the ne5t @ , years they %ere slo%ly driven out, probably by a combination of climate chan:e and the effects of bein: out(competed for scarce food by the spread of modern humans&l +tiff competitionl Pet ;omo erectus %as sli:htly bi::er and more po%erful than ;omo sapiens, so %hy did %e thrive %hen they did notH 9he most obvious ans%er is that %e had bi::er brains ( but it turns out that %hat matters is not overall brain si)e but the areas %here the brain is lar:er&l <9he ;omo erectus brain did not devote a lot of space to the part of the brain that controls lan:ua:e and speech,< said John +hea, professor of palaeoanthropolo:y at +tony 1roo4 3niversity in 0e% Por4& l <One of the crucial elements of ;omo sapiensA adaptations is that it combines comple5 plannin:, developed in the front of the brain, %ith lan:ua:e and the ability to spread ne% ideas from one individual to another&& <l Plannin:, communication and even trade led, amon: other thin:s, to the development of better tools and %eapons %hich spread rapidly across the population&l 9he fossil records su::est that ;& erectus %ent on ma4in: the same basic hand a5e for more than a million years&l Our ancestors, by contrast, created smaller, more sophisticated %eapons, li4e a spear, %hich can be thro%n, %ith obvious advanta:es %hen it comes to huntin: and to fi:htin:& l 9he same advanta:es helped ;omo sapiens outcompete another rival human, the 0eanderthals, %ho died out about " , years a:o as the Cce A:e limited available food supplies& l <Gven ! , years a:o, %eAve still :ot several human species on Garth and thatAs stran:e for us& 7eAre the only survivors of all of those :reat evolutionary e5periments in ho% to be human,< says +trin:er&l ;& erectus hun: on in Asia until " , years a:o& Althou:h they %ent e5tinct, they appear to have left descendants on the island of Flores in Cndonesia& l 9hese humans, ;omo floresiensis, also 4no%n as <;obbits<, survived until around !2, years a:o& And then they %ent, leavin: us as the last human species on the planet& l <9hereAs such a hu:e :ulf bet%een ourselves and our nearest primate relatives, :orillas, chimpan)ees and bonobos,< said 6r +hea& l <Cf that :ap %ere populated by other hominids, %eAd see that :ap as not so much a :ulf but rather a continuum %ith steps on the %ay& 7eAd still thin4 of ourselves as special, but maybe not so special ( a little dose of humility %ouldnAt hurt&

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Warm&n)
C.2 &ncreases plant l&fe ,a'lor 7/10( environmental analyst (James, =lobal 7armin:H 0o, +atellites +ho% 2arbon 6io5ide Cs 2ausin: =lobal =reenin:, Forbes, June !
http#$$%%%&forbes&com$sites$'amestaylor$2 !"$ E$! $:lobal(%armin:(no(satellites(sho%(carbon(dio5ide(is(causin:(:lobal(:reenin:$*$$+,-

th, 2 !",

-isin: atmospheric carbon dio5ide levels are bolsterin: plant life throu:hout the %orld, environmental scientists report

in a ne%ly published peer(revie%ed study& 9he findin:s, published in =eophysical -esearch Ketters, are :leaned from satellite measurements of :lobal plant life, and contradict assertions by activists that :lobal %armin: is causin: deserts to e5pand, alon: %ith devastatin: drou:hts& A team of scientists led by environmental physicist -andall 6onohue, a research scientist at the 2ommon%ealth +cientific and Cndustrial -esearch Or:ani)ation in Australia, analy)ed satellite data from !?B2 throu:h 2 ! & 9he scientists documented a carbon dio5ide fertili)ation effect that has

caused a :radual :reenin: of the Garth, and particularly the Garth8s arid re:ion s, since !?B2& 9he satellite data sho%ed risin: carbon dio5ide levels caused a remar4able !! percent increase in folia:e in arid re:ions since !?B2, versus %hat %ould be the case if atmospheric carbon dio5ide levels had remained at !?B2 levels& Kots of papers have sho%n an avera:e increase

in ve:etation across the :lobe, and there is a lot of speculation about %hat8s causin: that, said 6onohue in a press release accompanyin: the study& 3p until this point, they8ve lin4ed the :reenin: to fairly obvious climatic variables, such as a rise in temperature %here it is normally cold or a rise in rainfall %here it is normally dry& Kots of those papers speculated about the 2O2 effect, but it has been very difficult to prove& 9he study noted that folia:e in %arm, %et re:ions such as tropical rainforests are near their ma5imum capacity& Cn %arm, arid re:ions there is room for :reater increases in folia:e and risin: carbon dio5ide levels are inducin: more prevalent plant :ro%th& 2arbon dio5ide acts as aerial fertili)er and also helps plants thrive under arid conditions& Althou:h :lobal precipitation has increased durin: the past century as the Garth has %armed, elevated carbon dio5ide levels are assistin: plant life in %arm, dry re:ions independent of and in addition to increases in :lobal precipitation& 9he effect of hi:her carbon dio5ide

levels on plant function is an important process that needs :reater consideration, said 6onohue& Gven if nothin: else in the climate chan:es as :lobal 2O2 levels rise, %e %ill still see si:nificant environmental chan:es because of the 2O2 fertili)ation effect& 6onohue focused special attention on Australia in an additional press release& Althou:h :lobal drou:ht is becomin: less

freMuent and less severe as the Garth modestly %arms, activists claim :lobal %armin: is causin: harmful drou:ht in Australia& Cn Australia, our native ve:etation is superbly adapted to survivin: in arid environments and it conseMuently uses %ater every efficiently, said 6onohue& Australian ve:etation seems Muite sensitive to 2O2 fertili)ation& On the face of it, elevated 2O2 boostin: the folia:e in dry country is :ood ne%s and

could assist forestry and a:riculture in such areas, 6onohue reported, %hile addin: that scientists should still monitor secondary %ith the %estern 3&+& benefitin: the most& Cndeed, many %estern re:ions e5perienced a :reater than "
!?B2& &

effects& 9he satellite data sho% plant life in the 3nited +tates has especially benefited from risin: atmospheric carbon dio5ide levels and :radually %armin: temperatures& +atellite data sho% folia:e has increased in the vast ma'ority of the 3nited +tates since !?B2, percent increase in folia:e since

Imposs&3le to pro+e "arm&n) %ue to fluctuat&on2 tal# &s :ust pol&t&cs Dar"all 7/1?(:raduate of 2ambrid:e and author of 9he A:e of =lobal 7armin: (-upert, =lobal 7armin:( From +cience to A:itprop, July !B th,
2 !", ;uffin:ton Post, http#$$%%%&huffin:tonpost&co&u4$rupert(dar%all$:lobal(%armin:LbL"F!DE2 &html*$$+,A7e seem to be losin: the communications battle,A the /et OfficeAs chief scientist complained si5 months a:o& 7ith

:lobal %armin:, science morphs seamlessly into political campai:nin: , 1ob 7ardAs article, A9he 2orruption of the Public 6ebate on 2limate 2han:e,A bein: a fairly typical e5ample of the :enre& 9here is the obsession %ith secret fundin: sources and %ith the ideolo:ical motivations of non(adherents, thin:s the philosopher >arl Popper identified as telltale si:ns of a pseudoscience& Amidst all the a:itprop, there is a nu::et of science# no !D(year period of :lobal temperature yields a statistically si:nificant trend& 1ut then, to its embarrassment, neither could the /et Office demonstrate a statistically si:nificant trend in :lobal temperature for the last !"
years& 9hat doesnAt mean observed temperatures did not rise ( they did ( or that :lobal %armin:, %hether man(made or not, did not happen& -ather it

illustrates the sheer difficulty in demonstratin: %hether the rise is outside a ran:e of random natural variation and of movin: from the physics of the test tube to the immense comple5ity of the atmosphere& 1ert 1olin, the first chairman of the CP22, ac4no%led:ed that :lobal %armin: %as not somethin: A%hich you can prove &A Cn one of his last lectures, the
late +tephen +chneider ( one of the most intellectually able of all climate scientists ( as4ed his students %hether the science of anthropo:enic climate chan:e %as settled& 6umb Muestion, he ans%ered& A2limate science is not li4e test tube science,A +chneider said& APou donAt

falsify&A Althou:h codified by Popper in the !?2

s, falsifiability %as the standard set in the +cientific -evolution and used %ith devastatin: effect by Kavoisier in his demolition of the phlo:iston theory of combustion& Cnstead of see4in: evidence that %ould falsify, climate science follo%s a much older in'unction, one from the 1eatitudes# A+ee4 and ye shall find&A As Popper ar:ued, evidence can be found for virtually any proposition, so %hen :lobal

temperatures donAt rise as anticipated, evidence is sou:ht in ocean temperatures, sea ice e5tent and :lacier retreat& 9he absence of a falsifiability test renders the science of :lobal %armin: inherently %ea4 & Cnstead acceptance

of the central proposition of :lobal %armin: ( that the earthAs atmosphere is rapidly %armin: than4s to manAs activities ( mar4s a reversion to pre( scientific standards, principally its reliance on consensus, peer revie% and appeals to authority& 2omputer simulations of future temperature rises cannot be verified& Cn the %ords of the mid(2 th century 0obel physicist P7 1rid:man, to correctly predict only has a past tense& 9he provisional

findin:s of climate science cannot e5plain ho% :lobal %armin:, %hich %as little more than a scientific curiosity for much of the 2 th century, became a political phenomenon that defines our a:e & Cndeed, the first t%o scientists to have
Muantified the effect of the Cndustrial -evolution on :lobal temperatures, +vante Arrhenius and =uy +te%art 2allendar, both thou:ht :lobal %armin: %ould be beneficial& 9he e5planation for :lobal %armin:As potency is the rise of environmentalism, follo%in: publication of -achel 2arsonAs +ilent +prin:, ar:uably the sin:le most important boo4 since the +econd 7orld 7ar& Gnvironmentalists believe that in destroyin: fra:ile ecosystems, humans are imperillin: their o%n survival& 7hilst scientists in the early !?E s si:ned manifestos predictin: the imminent collapse of industrial civili)ation, the

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first environmental %ave Muic4ly collapsed in the economic sta:nation of the !?E s& 7ith the return of economic :ro%th in the !?B s, :lobal %armin: became environmentalismAs 4iller app& Cn !?DE, the American scientists -o:er -evelle and ;ans +uess pointed out that man4ind %as carryin: out a lar:e(scale :eophysical e5periment& Pre'ud:in: the results of a scientific e5periment is bad science, yet this one simultaneously :enerates po%erful calls to halt the e5periment before it is concluded by invo4in: the precautionary principle& A7hat is called ob'ectivity consists solely of the critical approach,A Popper %rote& 1ut Muestionin: climate science science undermines collective action to save the planet, so critics and sceptics must be mar:inalised and

dele:itmised& 0o one 4no%s the outcome of the :eophysical e5periment& 1ut the results of the politico( scientific e5periment are no% in, and include the demotion of the scientific standards established by the +cientific -evolution&

Warm&n) )oo%2 causes )reen&n) ,a'lor 7/10( contributor to Forbes, the study cited is from the 2ommon%ealth +cientific and Cndustrial -esearch Or:ani)ation (James, =lobal
7armin:H 0o, +atellites +ho% 2arbon 6io5ide Cs 2ausin: A=lobal =reenin:A& July ! th, 2 !", Forbes, http#$$%%%&forbes&com$sites$'amestaylor$2 !"$ E$! $:lobal(%armin:(no(satellites(sho%(carbon(dio5ide(is(causin:(:lobal(:reenin:$*$$+,-

-isin: atmospheric carbon dio5ide levels are bolsterin: plant life throu:hout the %orld, environmental scientists report in a ne%ly published peer(revie%ed study& 9he findin:s, published in =eophysical -esearch Ketters, are :leaned from satellite measurements of :lobal plant life, and contradict assertions by activists that :lobal %armin: is causin: deserts to e5pand, alon: %ith devastatin: drou:hts& A team of scientists led by environmental physicist -andall 6onohue, a research scientist at the 2ommon%ealth +cientific and Cndustrial -esearch Or:ani)ation in Australia, analy)ed satellite data from !?B2 throu:h 2 ! & 9he scientists documented a carbon dio5ide fertili)ation effect that has caused a :radual :reenin: of the Garth , and they8ve lin4ed the :reenin: to fairly obvious climatic variables, such as a rise in temperature %here it is normally cold or a rise in rainfall %here it is normally dry& Kots of those papers speculated about the 2O2 effect, but it has been very difficult to prove& 9he study noted that folia:e in %arm, %et re:ions such as tropical rainforests are near their ma5imum capacity& Cn %arm, arid re:ions there is
:lobe, and there is a lot of speculation about %hat8s causin: that, said 6onohue in a press release accompanyin: the study& 3p until this point, room for :reater increases in folia:e and risin: carbon dio5ide levels are inducin: more prevalent plant :ro%th& 2arbon dio5ide acts as aerial fertili)er and also helps plants thrive under arid conditions& Althou:h :lobal precipitation has increased durin: the past century as the Garth has %armed, elevated carbon dio5ide levels are assistin: plant life in %arm, dry re:ions independent of and in addition to increases in :lobal precipitation& 9he effect of hi:her carbon dio5ide levels on plant function is an important process that needs :reater consideration, said 6onohue& Gven

particularly the Garth8s arid re:ions, since !?B2& 9he satellite data sho%ed risin: carbon dio5ide levels caused a remar4able !! percent increase in folia:e in arid re:ions since !?B2, versus %hat %ould be the case if atmospheric carbon dio5ide levels had remained at !?B2 levels& Kots of papers have sho%n an avera:e increase in ve:etation across the

if nothin: else in the climate chan:es as :lobal 2O2 levels rise, %e %ill still see si:nificant environmental chan:es because of the 2O2 fertili)ation effect& 6onohue focused special attention on
Australia in an additional press release& Althou:h :lobal drou:ht is becomin: less freMuent and less severe as the Garth modestly %arms, activists claim :lobal %armin: is causin: harmful drou:ht in Australia& Cn Australia, our native ve:etation is superbly adapted to survivin: in arid environments and it conseMuently uses %ater every efficiently, said 6onohue& Australian ve:etation seems Muite sensitive to 2O2 fertili)ation& On the face of it, elevated 2O2 boostin: the folia:e in dry country is :ood ne%s and could assist forestry and a:riculture in such areas, 6onohue reported, %hile addin: that scientists should still monitor secondary effects&

9he satellite data sho% plant life in the 3nited +tates has especially benefited from risin: atmospheric carbon dio5ide levels and :radually %armin: temperatures& +atellite data sho% folia:e has increased in the vast ma'ority of the 3nited +tates since !?B2, %ith the %estern 3&+& benefitin: the most& Cndeed, many %estern re:ions e5perienced a :reater than " percent increase in folia:e since !?B2& Other re:ions sho%in: particularly stron: increases in folia:e include the +ahel re:ion of Africa, the ;orn of Africa, southern Africa, the Cndian subcontinent, and nearly all of Gurope& Warm&n) en%e% 1* 'ears a)o @ose 12( analyst for 6aily /ail( cites studies from G=- and 2-3 (6avid, =lobal %armin: stopped !F years a:o, reveals /et Office report Muietly released&&& and here is the chart to prove it, October !"th, 2 !2, 6aily /ail 3>, http#$$%%%&dailymail&co&u4$sciencetech$article(22!E2BF$=lobal(%armin:(stopped(!F(years(a:o( reveals(/et(Office(report(Muietly(released((chart(prove(it&html*$$+,9he %orld stopped :ettin: %armer almost !F years a:o, accordin: to ne% data released last %ee4& 9he fi:ures, %hich have tri::ered debate amon: climate scientists, reveal that from the be:innin: of !??E until Au:ust 2 !2, there %as no discernible rise in a::re:ate :lobal temperatures& 9his means that the ^plateau8 or ^pause8 in :lobal %armin: has no% lasted for about the same time as the
previous period %hen temperatures rose, !?B to !??F& 1efore that, temperatures had been stable or declinin: for about @ years& :lobal temperature chan:es :lobal temperature chan:es -esearch# 9he ne% fi:ures mean that the mpausem in :lobal %armin: has no% lasted for about the same time as the previous period %hen temperatures rose, !?B to !??F& 9his picture sho%s an iceber: meltin: in Gastern =reenland -esearch# 9he ne% fi:ures mean that the ApauseA in :lobal %armin: has no% lasted for about the same time as the previous period %hen temperatures rose, !?B to !??F& 9his picture sho%s an iceber: meltin: in Gastern =reenland 9he ne% data, compiled from more than ", measurin: points on land

and sea, %as issued Muietly on the internet, %ithout any media fanfare, and, until today, it has not been reported& 9his stands in sharp contrast to the release of the previous fi:ures si5 months a:o, %hich %ent only to the end of 2 ! a very %arm year&
Gndin: the data then means it is possible to sho% a sli:ht %armin: trend since !??E, but 2 !! and the first ei:ht months of 2 !2 %ere much cooler, and thus this trend is erased& /ore&&& 7ettest start to autumn for !2 years as +outh 7est continues to be battered by torrential rain +ome climate scientists, such as Professor Phil Jones, director of the 2limatic -esearch 3nit at the 3niversity of Gast An:lia, last %ee4 dismissed the si:nificance of the plateau, sayin: that !D or !F years is too short a period from %hich to dra% conclusions& Others disa:reed& Professor Judith 2urry, %ho is the head of the climate science department at America8s presti:ious =eor:ia 9ech university, told 9he /ail on +unday that it %as clear that the computer models used to predict future %armin: %ere ^deeply fla%ed8& Gven Prof Jones admitted that he and his collea:ues did not understand the impact of ^natural variability8 factors such as lon:(term ocean temperature cycles and chan:es in the output of the sun& ;o%ever, he said he %as still convinced that the current decade %ould

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end up si:nificantly %armer than the previous t%o& Professor Phil Jones 6r Judith A 2urry 6isa:reement# Professor Phil Jones, left, from the 3niversity of Gast An:lia, dismissed the si:nificance of the plateau& Professor Judith 2urry, ri:ht, from =eor:ia 9ech university in America, disa:reed, sayin: the computer models used to predict future %armin: %ere ^deeply fla%ed8 7armer# +ince !BB the %orld has %armed by &ED de:rees 2elsius& 9his ima:e sho%s floatin: iceber:s in =reenland 7armer# +ince !BB the %orld has %armed by &ED de:rees 2elsius& 9his ima:e sho%s floatin: iceber:s in =reenland 9he re:ular data collected on :lobal temperature is called ;adcrut @, as it is 'ointly issued by the /et Office8s ;adley 2entre and Prof Jones8s 2limatic -esearch 3nit& +ince !BB , %hen %orld%ide industrialisation be:an to :ather pace and reliable statistics %ere first collected on a :lobal scale, the %orld has %armed by &ED de:rees 2elsius& +ome scientists have claimed that this rate of %armin: is set to increase hu:ely %ithout drastic cuts to carbon(dio5ide emissions, predictin: a catastrophic increase of up to a further five de:rees 2elsius by the end of the century& 9he ne% fi:ures %ere released as the =overnment made clear that it %ould ^bend8 its o%n carbon(dio5ide rules and build ne% po%er stations to try to combat the threat of blac4outs& At last %ee48s 2onservative Party 2onference, the ne% Gner:y /inister, John ;ayes, promised that ^the hi:h(flo%n theories of bour:eois Keft( %in: academics %ill not override the interests of ordinary people %ho need fuel for heat, li:ht and transport ener:y policies, you mi:ht say, for the many, not the fe%8 a pled:e that has tri::ered fury from :reen activists, %ho fear reductions in the hu:e subsidies :iven to %ind(turbine firms& Fla%ed science costs us dearly ;ere are three not(so trivial Muestions you probably %on8t find in your ne5t pub Mui)& First, ho% much %armer has the %orld become since a* !BB and b* the be:innin: of !??EH And %hat has this :ot to do %ith your ever(increasin: ener:y billH Pou may find the ans%ers to the first t%o surprisin:& +ince !BB , %hen reliable temperature records be:an to be 4ept across most of the :lobe, the %orld has %armed by about &ED de:rees 2elsius& From the start of !??E until Au:ust 2 !2, ho%ever, fi:ures released last %ee4 sho% the ans%er is

)ero# the trend, derived from the a::re:ate data collected from more than ", %orld%ide measurin: points, has been flat& +urprisin:# 0e%s that the %orld has :ot no %armer for the past !F years %ill come as somethin: of a shoc4& 9his picture sho%s driftin: ice in 2anada +urprisin:# 0e%s that the %orld has :ot no %armer for the past !F years %ill come as somethin:
of a shoc4& 9his picture sho%s driftin: ice in 2anada 0ot that there has been any covera:e in the media, %hich usually reports climate issues assiduously, since the fi:ures %ere Muietly release online %ith no accompanyin: press release unli4e si5 months a:o %hen they sho%ed a sli:ht %armin: trend& 9he ans%er to the third Muestion is perhaps the most familiar& Pour bills are :oin: up, at least in part, because of the array of ^:reen8

subsidies bein: provided to the rene%able ener:y industry, chiefly %ind&

9hey %ill cost the avera:e household about n! this year& 9his is set to rise steadily hi:her yet it is bein: imposed for only one reason# the %idespread conviction, %hich is shared by politicians of all stripes and drilled into children at primary schools, that, %ithout drastic action to reduce carbon(dio5ide emissions, :lobal %armin: is certain soon to accelerate, %ith truly catastrophic conseMuences by the end of the century %hen temperatures could be up to five de:rees hi:her& ;ence the si:nificance of those first t%o ans%ers& =lobal industrialisation over the past !" years has made relatively little differenc e& And %ith the country committed by Act of Parliament to reducin: 2O2 by B per cent by 2 D , a pro'ect that %ill cost hundreds of billions ,

the ne%s that the %orld has :ot no %armer for the past !F years comes as somethin: of a shoc4& Ct poses a fundamental challen:e
to the assumptions underlyin: every aspect of ener:y and climate chan:e policy& 9his ^plateau8 in risin: temperatures does not mean that :lobal %armin: %on8t at some point resume& 1ut accordin: to increasin: numbers of serious climate scientists, it does su::est that the

computer models that have for years been predictin: imminent doom, such as those used by the /et Office and the 30 Cnter:overnmental Panel on 2limate 2han:e, are fla%ed, and that the climate is far more comple5 than the models assert& ^9he ne% data confirms the e5istence of a pause in :lobal %armin:,8 Professor Judith 2urry, chair of the +chool of Garth and
Atmospheric +cience at America8s =eor:ia 9ech university, told me yesterday& ^2limate models are very comple5, but they are imperfect and incomplete& 0atural variability \the impact of factors such as lon:(term temperature cycles in the oceans and the output of the sun] has been sho%n over the past t%o decades to have a ma:nitude that dominates the :reenhouse %armin: effect& ^Ct is becomin: increasin:ly apparent that our attribution of %armin: since !?B and future pro'ections of climate chan:e needs to consider natural internal variability as a factor of fundamental importance&8 Professor Phil Jones, director of the 2limate -esearch 3nit at the 3niversity of Gast An:lia, %ho found himself at the centre of the ^2limate:ate8 scandal over lea4ed emails three years a:o, %ould not normally be e5pected to a:ree %ith her& Pet on t%o important points, he did& 9he data does su::est a plateau, he admitted, and %ithout a ma'or Gl 0ino event the sudden, dramatic %armin: of the southern Pacific %hich ta4es place unpredictably and al%ays has a hu:e effect on :lobal %eather ^it could :o on for a %hile8& Ki4e Prof 2urry, Prof Jones also admitted that the climate models %ere imperfect# ^7e don8t fully understand ho% to input thin:s li4e chan:es in the oceans, and because %e don8t fully understand it you could say that natural variability is no% %or4in: to suppress the %armin:& 7e don8t 4no% %hat natural variability is doin:&8 ;eadache# 9he evidence is be:innin: to su::est that :lobal %armin: may be happenin: much slo%er than the catastrophists have claimed m a conclusion %ith enormous policy implications for politicians at 7estminster, pictured ;eadache# 9he evidence is be:innin: to su::est that :lobal %armin: may be happenin: much slo%er than the

catastrophists have claimed ( a conclusion %ith enormous policy implications for politicians at 7estminster, pictured Pet he insisted that !D or
!F years is not a si:nificant period# pauses of such len:th had al%ays been e5pected, he said& Pet in 2 ?, %hen the plateau %as already becomin: apparent and bein: discussed by scientists, he told a collea:ue in one of the 2limate:ate emails# ^1ottom line# the no up%ard trend has to continue for a total of !D years before %e :et %orried&8 1ut althou:h that point has no% been passed, he said that he hadn8t chan:ed his mind about the models8 :loomy predictions# ^C still thin4 that the current decade %hich be:an in 2 ! %ill be %armer by about &!E de:rees than the previous one, %hich %as %armer than the 0ineties&8 Only if that did not happen %ould he seriously be:in to %onder %hether somethin: more profound mi:ht be happenin:& Cn other %ords, thou:h five years a:o he seemed to be sayin: that !D years %ithout %armin: %ould ma4e him ^%orried8, that period has no% become 2 years& /ean%hile, his /et Office collea:ues %ere stic4in: to their :uns& A spo4esman said# ^2hoosin: a startin: or end point on short(term scales can be very misleadin:& 2limate chan:e can only be detected from multi(decadal timescales due to the inherent variability in the climate system&8 ;e said that for the plateau to last any more than !D years %as ^unli4ely8& As4ed about a prediction that the /et Office made in 2 ? that three of the ensuin: five years %ould set a ne% %orld temperature record he made no comment& 7ith no si:n of a stron: Gl 0ino ne5t year, the prospects of this happenin: are remote& 7hy all this matters should be obvious& Gvery Muarter, statistics on the economy8s output and models of future performance have a hu:e impact on our lives& 9hey tri::er a ran:e of policy responses from the 1an4 of Gn:land and the 9reasury, and myriad decisions by private businesses& Pet it has steadily become apparent since the 2 B crash that both the statistics and the modellin: are e5tremely unreliable& 9o plan the future around them ma4es about as much sense as choosin: a %eddin: date three months8 hence on the basis of a lon:(term %eather forecast& Fe% people %ould be so foolish& 1ut decisions of far deeper and more costly si:nificance than those derived from output fi:ures have been and are still bein: made on the basis of climate predictions, not of the ne5t three months but of the comin: century and this despite the fact that Phil Jones and his collea:ues no% admit they do not understand the role of ^natural variability8& 9he most depressin: feature of this debate is that anyone %ho Muestions the alarmist, doomsday scenario %ill automatically be labelled a climate chan:e ^denier8, and accused of 'eopardisin: the future of humanity& +o let8s be clear& Pes# :lobal %armin: is real, and some of it at least has been caused by the 2O2 emitted by fossil fuels& 1ut the evidence is be:innin: to su::est that it may be

happenin:

much slo%er than the catastrophists have claimed a conclusion %ith enormous policy implications&

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Warm&n) pre%&ct&ons e1a))erate% McGrat( 5/14( :raduated /C9 ma'or in Gnvironment (/att, 2limate slo%do%n means e5treme rates of %armin: ^not as li4ely8, 112, /ay !?th, 2 !", http#$$%%%&bbc&co&u4$ne%s$science(environment( 22DFE 2"*$$+,+cientists say the recent do%nturn in the rate of :lobal %armin: %ill lead to lo%er temperature rises in the short(term& +ince !??B, there has been an une5plained <standstill< in the heatin: of the GarthAs atmosphere& 7ritin: in 0ature =eoscience, the researchers say this %ill reduce predicted %armin: in the comin: decades & 1ut lon:(term, the e5pected temperature rises %ill not alter si:nificantly&
2ontinue readin: the main story +tart ,uote 9he most e5treme pro'ections are loo4in: less li4ely than before 6r Ale5ander Otto 3niversity of O5ford 9he slo%do%n in the e5pected rate of :lobal %armin: has been studied for several years no%& Garlier this year, the 3> /et Office lo%ered their five(year temperature forecast& 1ut this ne% paper :ives the clearest picture yet of ho% any slo%do%n is li4ely to affect temperatures in both the short(term and lon:(term& An international team of researchers loo4ed at ho% the last decade %ould impact lon:(term, eMuilibrium climate sensitivity and the shorter term climate response& 9ransient nature 2limate sensitivity loo4s to see %hat %ould happen if %e doubled concentrations of 2O2 in the atmosphere and let the GarthAs oceans and ice sheets respond to it over several thousand years& 9ransient climate response is much shorter term calculation a:ain based on a doublin: of 2O2& 9he Cnter:overnmental Panel on 2limate 2han:e reported in 2 E that the short(term temperature rise %ould most li4ely be !("2 (!&B(D&@F*& 1ut in this ne% analysis, by only includin: the temperatures from the last decade, the pro'ected ran:e %ould be &?(2& 2& Cce 9he report

su::ests that %armin: in the near term %ill be less than forecast <9he hottest of the models in the medium( term, they are actually loo4in: less li4ely or inconsistent %ith the data from the last decade alone ,< said 6r Ale5ander Otto from the 3niversity of O5ford& <9he most e5treme pro'ections are loo4in: less li4ely than before &< Warm&n) &ncreases plant l&fe2 not a %efense car% ,a'lor 7/10( Forbes contributor citin: the 2ommon%ealth +cientifci and Cndustrial -esearch Or:an)iation (James, =lobal 7armin:H 0o, +atellites +ho% 2arbon 6io5ide Cs 2ausin: ^=lobal =reenin:8, July ! th, 2 !", Forbes, http#$$%%%&forbes&com$sites$'amestaylor$2 !"$ E$! $:lobal(%armin:(no(satellites(sho%(carbon( dio5ide(is(causin:(:lobal(:reenin:$*$$+,-isin: atmospheric carbon dio5ide levels are bolsterin: plant life throu:hout the %orld, environmental scientists report in a ne%ly published peer(revie%ed study& 9he findin:s, published in =eophysical -esearch Ketters, are :leaned from satellite measurements of :lobal plant life, and contradict assertions by activists that :lobal %armin: is causin: deserts to e5pand, alon: %ith devastatin: drou:hts& A team of scientists led by environmental physicist -andall 6onohue, a research scientist at the 2ommon%ealth +cientific and Cndustrial -esearch Or:ani)ation in Australia, analy)ed satellite data from !?B2 throu:h 2 ! & 9he scientists documented a carbon dio5ide fertili)ation effect that has caused a :radual :reenin: of the Garth , and particularly the Garth8s arid re:ions, since !?B2& 9he satellite data sho%ed risin: carbon dio5ide levels caused a remar4able !! percent increase in folia:e in arid re:ions since !?B2, versus %hat %ould be the case if atmospheric carbon dio5ide levels had remained at !?B2
levels& Kots of papers have sho%n an avera:e increase in ve:etation across the :lobe, and there is a lot of speculation about %hat8s causin: that, said 6onohue in a press release accompanyin: the study& 3p until this point, they8ve lin4ed the :reenin: to fairly obvious climatic variables, such as a rise in temperature %here it is normally cold or a rise in rainfall %here it is normally dry& Kots of those papers speculated about the 2O2 effect, but it has been very difficult to prove& 9he study noted that folia:e in %arm, %et re:ions such as tropical rainforests are near their ma5imum capacity& Cn %arm, arid re:ions there is room for :reater increases in folia:e and risin: carbon dio5ide levels are inducin: more prevalent plant :ro%th & 2arbon dio5ide

acts as aerial fertili)er and also helps plants thrive under arid conditions & Althou:h :lobal precipitation has increased durin: the past century as the Garth has %armed, elevated carbon dio5ide levels are assistin: plant life in %arm, dry re:ions independent
of and in addition to increases in :lobal precipitation& 9he effect of hi:her carbon dio5ide levels on plant function is an important process that needs :reater consideration, said 6onohue& Gven if nothin: else in the climate chan:es as :lobal 2O2 levels rise, %e %ill still see si:nificant environmental chan:es because of the 2O2 fertili)ation effect&

No "arm&n)2 sc&ent&sts %on7t spea# out %ue to fear of 3e&n) f&re% Alle)re et al 4022laude Alle:re, former director of the Cnstitute for the +tudy of the Garth, 3niversity of ParisR J& +cott Armstron:, cofounder of
the Journal of Forecastin: and the Cnternational Journal of Forecastin:R Jan 1reslo%, head of the Kaboratory of 1iochemical =enetics and /etabolism, -oc4efeller 3niversityR -o:er 2ohen, fello%, American Physical +ocietyR Gd%ard 6avid, member, 0ational Academy of Gn:ineerin: and 0ational Academy of +ciencesR 7illiam ;apper, professor of physics, PrincetonR /ichael >elly, professor of technolo:y, 3niversity of 2ambrid:e, 3&>&R 7illiam >ininmonth, former head of climate research at the Australian 1ureau of /eteorolo:yR -ichard Kind)en, professor of atmospheric sciences, /C9R James /c=rath, professor of chemistry, Qir:inia 9echnical 3niversityR -odney 0ichols, former president and 2GO of the 0e% Por4 Academy of +ciencesR 1urt -utan, aerospace en:ineer, desi:ner of Qoya:er and +pace+hipOneR ;arrison ;& +chmitt, Apollo !E astronaut and former 3&+& senatorR 0ir +haviv, professor of astrophysics, ;ebre% 3niversity, JerusalemR ;en4 9enne4es, former director, -oyal 6utch /eteorolo:ical +erviceR Antonio Zichichi, president of the 7orld Federation of +cientists, =eneva (2laude, 0o 0eed to Panic About =lobal 7armin:, 0o date cited but 2o2 levels from ? are included, 7+J, http#$$online&%s'&com$article$+1! !@2@ D2?E 2 @" !@ @DEE!E!D"!B"B@2!"FF&html*$$+,A candidate for public office in any contemporary democracy may have to consider %hat, if anythin:, to do about <:lobal %armin:&< 2andidates should understand that the oft(repeated claim that nearly all scientists demand that somethin: dramatic be done to stop :lobal %armin: is not true& Cn fact , a

lar:e and :ro%in: number of distin:uished scientists and en:ineers do not a:ree that drastic actions on :lobal %armin: are needed& Cn +eptember, 0obel Pri)e(%innin: physicist Cvar =iaever, a supporter of President Obama in the last election, publicly
resi:ned from the American Physical +ociety (AP+* %ith a letter that be:ins# <C did not rene% \my membership] because C cannot live %ith the \AP+ policy] statement# A9he evidence is incontrovertible# =lobal %armin: is occurrin:& Cf no miti:atin: actions are ta4en, si:nificant disruptions in the GarthAs physical and ecolo:ical systems, social systems, security and human health are li4ely to occur& 7e must reduce emissions of :reenhouse :ases be:innin: no%&A Cn the AP+ it is O> to discuss %hether the mass of the proton chan:es over time and ho% a multi(universe behaves, but the evidence of :lobal

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%armin: is incontrovertibleH< Cn spite of a multidecade international campai:n to enforce the messa:e that increasin: amounts of the <pollutant< carbon dio5ide %ill destroy civili)ation, lar:e numbers of scientists, many very prominent, share the opinions of 6r& =iaever& And the number of scientific <heretics< is :ro%in: %ith each passin: year& 9he reason is a collection of stubborn scientific facts& Perhaps the most inconvenient fact is

the lac4 of :lobal %armin: for %ell over ! years no%& 9his is 4no%n to the %armin: establishment, as one can see from the 2

? <2limate:ate< email of climate scientist >evin 9renberth# <9he fact is that %e canAt account for the lac4 of %armin: at the moment and it is a travesty that %e canAt&< 1ut the %armin: is only missin: if one believes computer models %here so(called feedbac4s involvin: %ater vapor and clouds :reatly amplify the small effect of 2O2& 9he lac4 of %armin: for more than a decade Jindeed, the smaller(than(predicted %armin: over the 22 years since the 3&0&As Cnter:overnmental Panel on 2limate 2han:e (CP22* be:an issuin: pro'ectionsJ su::ests

that computer models have :reatly e5a::erated ho% much %armin: additional 2O2 can cause& Faced %ith this embarrassment, those promotin: alarm have shifted their drumbeat from %armin: to %eather e5tremes, to enable anythin: unusual that happens in our chaotic climate to be ascribed to 2O2& 9he fact is that 2O2 is not a pollutant& 2O2 is a colorless and odorless :as, e5haled at hi:h concentrations by each of us, and a 4ey component of the biosphereAs life cycle& Plants do so much better %ith more 2O2 that :reenhouse operators often increase the 2O2 concentrations by factors of three or four to :et better :ro%th& 9his is no surprise since plants and animals evolved %hen 2O2 concentrations %ere about ! times lar:er than they are today& 1etter
plant varieties, chemical fertili)ers and a:ricultural mana:ement contributed to the :reat increase in a:ricultural yields of the past century, but part of the increase almost certainly came from additional 2O2 in the atmosphere& Althou:h the number of publicly dissentin: scientists is :ro%in: , many

youn: scientists furtively say that %hile they also have serious doubts about the :lobal(%armin: messa:e, they are afraid to spea4 up for fear of not bein: promote dJor %orse& 9hey have :ood reason to %orry& Cn 2 ", 6r& 2hris de Freitas, the
editor of the 'ournal 2limate -esearch, dared to publish a peer(revie%ed article %ith the politically incorrect (but factually correct* conclusion that the recent %armin: is not unusual in the conte5t of climate chan:es over the past thousand years& 9he international %armin: establishment Muic4ly mounted a determined campai:n to have 6r& de Freitas removed from his editorial 'ob and fired from his university position& Fortunately, 6r& de Freitas %as able to 4eep his university 'ob& 9his is not the %ay science is supposed to %or4, but %e have seen it beforeJfor e5ample, in the fri:htenin: period %hen 9rofim Kysen4o hi'ac4ed biolo:y in the +oviet 3nion& +oviet biolo:ists %ho revealed that they believed in :enes, %hich Kysen4o maintained %ere a bour:eois fiction, %ere fired from their 'obs& /any %ere sent to the :ula: and some %ere condemned to death& 7hy is there so much passion about :lobal %armin:, and %hy has the issue become so ve5in: that the American Physical +ociety, from %hich 6r& =iaever resi:ned a fe% months a:o, refused the seemin:ly reasonable reMuest by many of its members to remove the %ord <incontrovertible< from its description of a scientific issueH 9here are several reasons, but a :ood place to start is the old Muestion <cui bonoH< Or the modern update, <Follo% the money&< Alarmism over climate is of :reat benefit to many, providin: :overnment fundin: for academic research and a reason for :overnment bureaucracies to :ro%& Alarmism also offers

an e5cuse for :overnments to raise ta5es, ta5payer(funded subsidies for businesses that understand ho% to %or4 the political system, and a lure for bi: donations to charitable foundations promisin: to save the planet &
Kysen4o and his team lived very %ell, and they fiercely defended their do:ma and the privile:es it brou:ht them& +pea4in: for many scientists and en:ineers %ho have loo4ed carefully and independently at the science of climate, %e have a messa:e to any candidate for public office# 9here is no compellin: scientific ar:ument for drastic action to <decarboni)e< the %orldAs economy& Gven if one accepts the inflated climate forecasts of the CP22, a::ressive :reenhouse(:as control policies are not 'ustified economically& Princeton physics professor 7illiam ;apper on %hy a lar:e number of scientists donAt believe that carbon dio5ide is causin: :lobal %armin:& A recent study of a %ide variety of policy options by Pale economist 7illiam 0ordhaus sho%ed that nearly the hi:hest benefit(to(cost ratio is achieved for a policy that allo%s D more years of economic :ro%th unimpeded by :reenhouse :as controls& 9his %ould be especially beneficial to the less(developed parts of the %orld that %ould li4e to share some of the same advanta:es of material %ell(bein:, health and life e5pectancy that the fully developed parts of the %orld en'oy no%& /any other policy responses %ould have a ne:ative return on investment& And it is li4ely that more 2O2 and the modest %armin: that may come %ith it %ill be an overall benefit to the planet& Cf elected officials feel compelled to <do somethin:< about climate, %e recommend supportin: the e5cellent scientists %ho are increasin: our understandin: of climate %ith %ell(desi:ned instruments on satellites, in the oceans and on land, and in the analysis of observational data& 9he better %e understand climate, the better %e can cope %ith its ever(chan:in: nature, %hich has complicated human life throu:hout history& ;o%ever, much of the hu:e private and :overnment investment in climate is badly in need of critical revie%& Gvery candidate should support rational measures to protect and improve our environment, but it ma4es no sense at all to bac4 e5pensive pro:rams that divert resources from real needs

and are based on alarmin: but untenable claims of <incontrovertible< evidence&

Aree tra%e can7t sol+e "ar2 &%eolo)&cal reasons -3el&n)F 02 (-ichard /& Gbelin: is Kud%i: von /ises Professor of Gconomics ;illsdale 2olle:e, /arch !B, 2 2, 2an Free 9rade -eally Prevent 7arH, http#$$mises&or:$daily$?!D* ...don8t endorse :endered lan:ua:e in this card Free trade cannot prevent %ar %hen men no lon:er believe in peace & Free trade is premised on the idea that human relationships should be voluntary and based on mutual consent& Ct is :rounded on the understandin: that the material, cultural, and
spiritual improvements in the circumstances and conditions of man are best served %hen the members of the :lobal community of man4ind speciali)e their activities in a %orld(encompassin: social system of division of labor& Ct reMuires the conviction that the moral condition of individual men and man4ind as a %hole is fostered the most %hen people acMuire the thin:s of the %orld that they desire by peaceful e5chan:e rather than by theft and plunderR and %hen men attempt to chan:e the %ay their fello% human bein:s thin4 and live and act by usin: the

methods of reason, persuasion, and e5ample instead of throu:h the use of compulsion, po%er, terror, and death& 9hat is %hy %ars still pla:ue us& 9oo many men still don8t believe in peace because they don8t believe in the prereMuisites for peace and the freedom of trade that accompanies their implementation & Just as the +econd 7orld
7ar %as about to be:in, the French free(mar4et economist, Kouis 1oudin, pointed out,

000Aree ,ra%e000

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Alt Cause2 C(&na Dono(ue an% Garf&el%F 12 ( .9homas J&, president and 2GO of the 3+ 2hamber of 2ommerce, ..6ean 2&, president and 2GO of the Cnformation
9echnolo:y Cndustry 2ouncil (Protectionism Cs 1ac4, 7all +treet Journal, F$!F$!2, http#$$online&%s'&com$article$+1! !@2@ D2E 2" "EFB! @DEE@F2EB 222?B?2BF&html*

forces tryin: to stifle it and replace it %ith economic schemes that threaten :lobal trade and recovery& A ne% 4ind of protectionism is turnin: innovation policy on its head , unfairly benefitin: domestic firms at the e5pense of forei:n players& Keft unchec4ed, the result could be calamitous& Cnstead of thrivin: in a :lobally inte:rated economy, %e %ill limp to%ard 1al4ani)ed, closed systems& +ometimes branded as <indi:enous innovation,< these policies are really desi:ned to boost domestic manufacturin:, plus hi:h(technolo:y and -T6 capabilities, by discriminatin: a:ainst forei:n companies& 9hey have emer:ed especially in 2hina, %ith 1ra)il, Cndia, -ussia, 0i:eria, Cndonesia and Ar:entina no% 'oinin: the fray& Amon: the policies are forced technolo:y transferR local sourcin: reMuirementsR
6espite the stunnin: po%er of innovation, there are reMuirements to disclose sensitive desi:ns as a condition of mar4et accessR domestic(standards mandates that i:nore international standardsR and restrictions on the free flo% of data& 9his doesnAt amount only to puttin: a thumb on the scale, but to collapsin: the scale itself& As other

countries see 2hina actin: to develop economies of scale in manufactured :oods, they adopt similar strate:ies&
;o% should industries and :overnments respond to these developmentsH First, companies must be prepared to spea4 out and use the po%er of their investments to drive better policy& Already, forei:n direct investment in some of these nations has slo%ed as :lobal companies recalibrate investment decisions to%ard mar4ets %here :lobal tradin: rules are upheld& Cn a recent Guropean 2hamber of 2ommerce in 2hina survey, 22I of respondents indicated that they may shift investments out of 2hina, citin: re:ulatory barriers to accessin: mar4ets& Cf multinationals donAt respond to

these mercantilist schemes, countries %ill see little harm in acceleratin: and e5pandin: them& +econd, the 3&+& :overnment must intensify bilateral dialo:ues %ith 4ey countries, focusin: on mar4et access and safe:uardin: the interests of American
companies a:ainst the bur:eonin: practices of forced locali)ation and indi:enous innovation& 9hird, li4e(minded :overnments must be prepared to ta4e collective and a::ressive action at the 7orld 9rade Or:ani)ation and in other multilateral forums to contest practices that are clear violations of international a:reements and norms& 7e need to come to:ether on a sustained strate:y that places a :reater emphasis on enforcement& Fist(poundin: and hand(%rin:in: %onAt do it& Fourth, the 3nited +tates must :et serious about reformin: its o%n problematic ta5, immi:ration and education policies and practices& 9imely and effective efforts to combat the emer:in: protectionist trend %ill invariably fall short if %e donAt put our o%n house in order& 9he comin: =(2 meetin:s offer a si:nificant opportunity for the leaders of the %orldAs ma'or economies to state uneMuivocally that protectionism is a threat to the entire system of transparent, mar4et(based :lobal trade rules& 3nchallen:ed, these practices ris4 dama:in: the fra:ile

:lobal economy& 9he nations at the center of this trend are too bi: and influential, and their policies too troublin:, for us to i:nore& Alt Cause2 $an#&n) Da+&esF 12 ;o%ard, former chairman of 1ritainAs Financial +ervices Authority and former director of the Kondon +chool of Gconomics (Protectionism Cs on the

-ise, +late, @$2?$!2, http#$$%%%&slate&com$articles$business$pro'ectLsyndicate$2 !2$ @$%hyL%eLshouldLbeLconcernedLthatLban4sLandLtheLfinancialLmar4etsLareL:ro%in:LmoreLprotecti onistL&html* =lobal policyma4ers have con:ratulated themselves for avoidin: the policy errors of the !?" s durin: the financial crisis that be:an in 2 B& Ked by 1en 1ernan4e, an economic historian of the =reat 6epression, they remembered the ideas of John /aynard >eynes and loosened monetary and fiscal policy to avoid the %orst& 7e are still copin: %ith the bud:etary conseMuences, especially in Gurope, but it is true that the %orld did not end in 2 B& /onetary ti:htenin: %as not the only ma'or policy error of the !?" sR so %as a retreat into protectionism, symboli)ed by the +moot(;a%ley tariff& ;istorians continue to debate the centrality of the +moot(;a%ley la% itself, but the subseMuent tariff %ar certainly dama:ed trade and economic :ro%th, ma4in: a bad situation %orse& 9oday8s statesmen say that they have avoided the protectionist error as %ell, but is that trueH C do not e5pect a tariff %ar to brea4 out in the near term, but there are dan:erous indicators of trade trouble ahead& 9he 6oha round of :lobal free(trade tal4s has been abandoned, and the 7orld 9rade Or:ani)ation is no% lan:uishin: by the la4e in =eneva, uncertain of its future& Perhaps 6oha %as unli4ely to achieve much in the current circumstances, but the absence of any continuin: dialo:ue on %orld trade adds a ne% level of ris4& 7hile people are tal4in:, they are less li4ely to act precipitately&

Cn the financial arena, there are many si:ns of a revival of nationalistic approaches to re:ulation and currency policy& 9he crisis challen:ed the 7ashin:ton 2onsensus, %hich assumed that the %orld %as movin: :radually to%ard free movement of capital and mar4et(determined e5chan:e rates& +everal countriesJincludin: 1ra)il, +outh >orea, and 9ur4eyJhave no% imposed capital controls of various 4inds& Gven the Cnternational /onetary Fund, lon: the embodiment of the 7ashin:ton 2onsensus, has ac4no%led:ed that capital controls are a le:itimate part of the tool4it to mana:e capital flo%s in certain circumstances& American politicians vie% the 2hinese as archetypal currency manipulators, but the +%iss have introduced a firm cap on the franc8s appreciation& 9hese early si:ns of de:lobali)ation of financial mar4ets have their parallels in commercial ban4in:, %ith some of the bi::est :lobal institutions retrenc(&n) rap&%l'L 2itiban4 and ;+12 had :one further than most in developin: a :lobal footprintR indeed, one can hardly :et on a plane no%adays %ithout bein: reminded that
the latter is the %orld8s local ban4& 1ut both are closin: do%n in many countries& Ki4e%ise, many other Guropean ban4s are cuttin: bac4 their overseas business sharply& 9he impact is particularly vivid in trade finance, %here Guropean ban4s have been ma'or participants in Asia& 0o% they are in rapid retreat from that mar4et, creatin: a %orryin: :ap that Asian ban4s are see4in: to fill& 9here is more to come& As they stru::le to raise ne% capital, Guropean ban4s and insurers are li4ely to be forced to sell overseas assets& Cf this %ere simply a si:n of a ne%, ti:hter focus on viable lon:(term strate:ies, it mi:ht be re:arded it as a beni:n development& 1ut

there are indications that the process is bein: %r&+en 3' re:ulatory chan:e, and in some cases by re)ulator' protect&on&sm& 1an4s are overseen by a home re:ulator in their country of incorporation, and by a series of host re:ulators %here they operate& ;ome re:ulators and lenders of last resort are increasin:ly %orried about their potential e5posure to losses in ban4s8 overseas operations& As /ervyn >in:, the :overnor
of the 1an4 of Gn:land, acutely observed, ban4s are :lobal in life, but national in death& Cn other %ords, home authorities are left to pic4 up the tab %hen thin:s :o %ron:& ;ost re:ulators are increasin:ly nervous about ban4s that operate in their 'urisdictions throu:h branches of their corporate parent, %ithout local capital or a local board of directors& +o they are insistin: on subsidiari)ation& From the ban4s8 perspective, that means that capital is trapped in subsidiaries, and cannot be optimally used across its net%or4& +o ban4s may prefer to pull out instead& sin:le financial mar4et, ban4s are allo%ed to ta4e deposits any%here, %ithout local approval, if they are authori)ed to do so in one Guropean country& Pet

A particular version of this phenomenon is at %or4 in the Guropean 3nion& Cn the %hen the

Nuclear War MICHIGAN 7WS 2013 *7/221 Ccelandic ban4s failed, the 1ritish and 6utch authorities had to bail out local depositors& 0o% re:ulators are discoura:in: such cross(border business, leadin: to a process %ith the u:ly ne% name of de(euroi)ation& 7e can
only hope that it does not catch on& -e:ulators, reco:ni)in: the ris4s of allo%in: financial de:lobali)ation to accelerate, have been see4in: better means of handlin: the failure of hu:e :lobal ban4s& Cf ban4s can be %ound up easily %hen thin:s :o %ron:, %ith losses eMuitably distributed, re:ulators can more easily allo% them to continue to operate :lobally and efficiently& +o a ma'or effort to construct a cross(border resolution frame%or4 is under %ay& 1ut it is uphill %or4, and 6aniel 9arullo, a :overnor of the Federal -eserve, has ac4no%led:ed that a clean and

compre(ens&+e solut&on &s not &n s&)(tL 6oes all of t(&s amount to a ser&ous t(reat to the benefits of )lo3al&9at&onH 9he cautious ans%er %ould be that it is too early to say& Perhaps %e are 'ust seein: the be:innin:s of a chan:in: of the :uard, and that ;+12 and 2itiban4 %ill be replaced as :lobal players by 2hina8s C212, 1ra)il8s Ctau 3nibanco, or -ussia8s +berban4& 1ut it may be that %e are seein: a revival of a less beni:n >eynesian doctrine# ideas, 4no%led:e, science &&& should of their nature be international& 1ut let :oods be homespun %herever it is reasonably and conveniently possible and, above all, let finance be national& Alt Cause2 Glo3al econom' /o"re'F 12 (Annie, An Cncrease in 1arriers to 9rade Cs -eported, 0P9, F$22$!2, http#$$%%%&nytimes&com$2
9hose

!2$ F$2"$business$:lobal$rise(in(trade( protectionism(is(noted(by(the(%to&htmlHLrS!* 7A+;C0=9O0 J Ar:entina t%ea4ed import re:ulations on bottle caps and %ater balloons& Cndia banned e5ports of cotton& +outh Africa instituted a tariff on artificial turf&

recent policy chan:es sound minute& 1ut they, and scores more li4e them, have sto4ed fears about trade protectionism risin: as the :lobal economy cools& 9he 7orld 9rade Or:ani)ation and other independent analysts are soundin: the alarm& Cn a report released at the end of April, the 7&9&O& said that since mid(October the =roup of 2 economies J the %orld8s bi::est, %hich account for a vast ma'ority of the %orld8s economic output and trade J had added !2@ ne% restrictive measures affectin: about ! percent of %orld imports& =lobal 9rade Alert, a
respected independent survey, titled a June update on trade protections 6ebacle& Ct bumped up its estimate of the number of protectionist measures enacted in 2 ! and 2 !!, by "F percent, and %arned that countries had many more comin:& 9he Guropean 3nion also issued a report findin: a sta::erin: increase in protectionism in recent months& =roup of 2 members need to seriously step up their efforts to fi:ht protectionism, >arel 6e =ucht, the Guropean 3nion trade commissioner, said in a statement& Ct sends the %ron: si:nal to :lobal tradin: partners, it sends the %ron: si:nal to investors and it sends the %ron: si:nal to the business community&

9he %ave of protectionism comes as :ro%th has slo%ed or stalled in nearl' e+er' re)&on of the %orld& 9rade e5perts say that :overnments J particularly in developin: and emer:in: economies that rely heavily on e5ports to fuel their :ro%th J have felt pressure to protect their domestic industries and started inhibitin: forei:n competition to compensate& =overnments are
facin: particularly difficult economic conditions domestically, the 7orld 9rade Or:ani)ation, based in =eneva, said in its report& 9hey must resist the temptation to move to%ard more nationalistic and in%ard(loo4in: policies& 9his 4ind of policy %ill not solve their problems and they ris4 :eneratin: tit(for(tat reactions by their tradin: partners& -isin: tensions over trade flared on Friday, %hen the 3nited +tates sharply critici)ed Ar:entina and Cndonesia for enactin: ne% import restrictions& Our Muestion for Ar:entina a:ain today is# 7hen %ill the :overnment put an end to the nontransparent and restrictive measures and practices that have been the source of such lon:standin: irritation and :ro%in: frustrationH said an American attachg at the 7&9&O&, -achel 1ae, accordin: to a -euters report& Cn li:ht of the creepin: protectionism and the testier :lobal climate, trade became a prominent topic at the =roup of 2 leaders summit meetin: in Kos 2abos, /e5ico, this %ee4& 9he =roup of 2 countries upheld their promise not to protect their o%n businesses by restrictin: trade J the so(called standstill clause& 1ut tal4s over ho% lon: to e5tend the pled:e %ere tense& +ome countries %anted the pled:e to e5pire at the end of 2 !"& 9he ne:otiators representin: the =roup of 2 countries failed to %or4 out a deal, and the presidents and prime ministers had to step in to reach an a:reement to e5tend the pled:e throu:h 2 !@& Analysts ar:ue that the countries in the =roup of 2 are already brea4in: their pled:e by enactin: ne% measures& 9he more recent %ave of trade restrictions seems no lon:er to be aimed at combatin: the temporary effects of the :lobal crisis, but rather at tryin: to stimulate recovery, said the 7&9&O&, addin: that protectionism is no% a matter of concern& Accordin: to the =lobal 9rade Alert, the share of protectionist measures put in place by =roup of 2 economies has climbed to E? percent today from F percent in 2 ?& G5perts said that %hile the increase in trade restrictions %as %orrisome, the overall number of ne% measures and the percenta:e of e5ports and imports hit by them %as not& Cn past recessions, countries have hastily thro%n up much more si:nificant trade barriers& 9he record is actually rather :ood, said /ichael Froman, assistant to the president for international economic affairs, %ho served as the 3nited +tates8 representative at the summit meetin:& 9he fact that ma'or countries have ta4en actions that only affect such a small amount of trade in this environment J C thin4 that8s Muite positive&

+till,

analysts said the trend did not loo4 :ood& 9he =roup of 2

countries are sayin:, ^9here8s no repeat of the =reat 6epressionX 7e should probably :et a star of honorX8 said =ary 2lyde ;ufbauer, a trade e5pert at the Peterson Cnstitute for Cnternational Gconomics, a research or:ani)ation in 7ashin:ton& Ct8s true it8s not a

trade e5perts said that countries %ere adoptin: subtle ne% trade(restrictin: measures that %ere harder for %atchdo:s to pinpoint and count& For instance, some countries had issued :uidelines as4in: :overnment offices to procure :oods or services from domestic companies& 9he 7&9&O& rule boo4 has a lot of space in it, /r& ;ufbauer said& 2ountries fi:ure out the loopholes , and that8s ho% you :et all this :imcrac4 comin: in at the mar:ins of the 7&9&O&
rerun of the =reat 6epression& 1ut there8s a lot of it& And it8s not slo%in: do%n& 9hat8s the alarmin: part of the story& /oreover, rules or outside of them&

No &mpact t(e' m&sun%erstan% #e' factors !oll&ns et al 2006 political science professors at Ohio +tate 3niversity and Cndiana 3niversity (1rian /& Pollins, Omar /& =& >esh4, -afael -euveny, 9he
Journal of Politics, FF&@, 9rade still follo%s the fla:, J+9O-*

2onclusions<9rade brin:s peace< is a claim embraced by liberal political economy since the nineteenth century and trumpeted by many political leaders in our o%n time& 9he liberals inherited this claim from Gnli:htenment thin4ers, %ho too4 it from early 2hristian %riters, %ho heard it from classical =ree4s& +ome researchers today, standin: on an impressive body of empirical results, as4 us to accept this claim as

true and final, and consider the issue closed& 1ased on our o%n results, %e believe that %ould be a mista4e& 2areful specification of a simultaneous model of trade and conflict, e5ercised under a number of different assumptions, leads us to conclude that political relations affect flo%s of commerce bet%een nations, and that %hen this effect is accounted for, the apparent impact of trade on conflict disappears & 9his is %hat %e refer to as the <primacy of politics< in the tradeconflict
relationship& +o do %e consider our results to be full and finalH 6o %e consider the issue closedH 2ertainly not& For us, <trade brin:s peace< is a claim %orthy of further e5plorationR it is and should remain an open Muestion for some time& 9he 4ey, %e believe, is to be:in the search for the boundary conditions, contin:encies, and Mualifiers under %hich commerce bet%een nations actually %ill lessen the li4elihood of conflict and %hen it %ill not& +uch %or4 is indeed be:innin:& 7or4s cited above find that, inter alia, democratic institutions, domestic coalitions , forms and levels of

economic development, or membership in specific types of international or:ani)ations may chan:e the character of

Nuclear War MICHIGAN 7WS 2013 *?/221 the trade(conflict relationship from ne:ative to )ero to positive& 7e also loo4 for%ard to studies that consider different aspects of the concept
of <economic interdependence< and ho% different dimensions of that phenomenon may affect the possibilities of conflict Muite differently& And <conflict< itself is certainly a comple5 occurrence that is not captured fully by binary observations on militari)ed disputes alone& 9here is still much to be e5plored re:ardin: %ays in %hich economic interdependence may affect different forms and levels of conflict& 9he results reported here underscore the need for continued %or4 on the relationship bet%een trade and conflict& /ainstream ideolo:y and a

lar:e body of empirical studies claim that trade brin:s peace& Our results clearly indicate that trade does not brin: peace, and the apparent relationship bet%een them may %ell result from simultaneity bias & 1ut %e, as a
research community, %ill %aste our time if %e frame this debate by as4in: merely %hether trade brin:s peace& Cnstead, %e must move no% to specifyin: %hen and ho% it does and does not operate as the liberals claim& 9hose interested in further e5ploration of this Muestion can ta4e this from our findin:s# there is solid reason to doubt that the liberals are al%ays and every%here correct, and :ood reason to believe that the politics ent%ined %ithin the trade( conflict ne5us is a central part of that story&

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CC! Insta3&l&t'
CC! "on7t collapse assumes e+er' "arrant Matt&sF 12 Gditor of the 2hina 1rief at 9he Jamesto%n Foundation (Peter, 9he Foundations of 2hina8s Future +tability, Asia Pacific 1ulletin, 2$?$2 !2, http#$$scholarspace&manoa&ha%aii&edu$bitstream$handle$! !2D$2!?E2$AP1I2 no&I2 !@?&pdfH seMuenceS!* $$ /+
9he recently ended standoff bet%een the villa:ers of 7u4an in =uan:don: province and local :overnment officials has refocused attention on 2hina8s future stability& 9he more than ! , officially reported incidents of unrest each year :ives observers the false

impression that the 2hinese 2ommunist Party (22P* in 1ei'in: barely holds the country to:ether & Pressure may be
buildin:, but 2hina8s stability is li4e a champa:ne bottle& 3ntil the cor4 pops, the bottle and its contents are stable& 9he Muestion is ho% much pressure is buildin: and ho% much %ine is spilt %hen the cor4 flies out& Point predictions offer little value unless the factors underpinnin:

the state8s po%er and the 22P8s ability to manipulate socio(political dynamics are assessed& 2hina8s future %ill depend more on 1ei'in:8s ability to prevent local crises from cascadin: nationally, than preventin: the emer:ence of a political rival to the 22P& 7hile the va:aries of the economy may raise or lo%er the pressure, revolutionary unrest in a country the si)e of 2hina reMuires more than 'ust resentment & +ome modicum of connectivity and coordination is necessary to prevent 1ei'in: from secretly applyin: differin: doses of coercion and co(option& 9he 22P leadership understands the nature of this challen:e and has responded accordin:ly %ith a variety of public order policies that increase its internal monitorin: capabilities and ability to shape public discourse & 9hese policies amount to a three( pron:ed strate:y for maintainin: control and counterin: dissent & 9he first is to prevent locali)ed :rievances from con:ealin: into a national crisis li4e %hat happened in !?B?& 9he second pron: is the resuscitation of the domestic intelli:ence system& 9he final element is :uidin: and controllin: the public discourse& 9he first element re:ardin: stability maintenance is to encoura:e the perception that local :rievances have local causes and that the central :overnment %ill side %ith the demonstrators& +o lon: as the protestors still believe their problems do not have roots in the national system, the belief is that there is less li4elihood of unrest stirrin: up in nei:hborin: localities& 9his first element is a :uidin: principle for maintainin: stability, and there are specific policy choices associated %ith it& For e5ample, local :overnments control the police %hile 1ei'in: controls the military& 9he buildup of paramilitary capabilities :ives provincial and local :overnments more capability to deal %ith incidents of unrest, but also shields 1ei'in: from any ostensible responsibility for the violence& +ince the early 2 s, rebuildin: the domestic intelli:ence apparatus has been a priority for 1ei'in:& After several years of local(level e5perimentation, the /inistry of Public +ecurity (/P+* in 2 B held a ministry(
%ide conference to establish public security informati)ation as a :uidin: principle of police %or4& 9his included both human and technical components& 9he former included a ne% 6omestic +ecurity 6epartment and ne% spendin: on domestic informant net%or4s& 9hese measures supplement the electronic inte:ration of records on individuals8 movements and automated systems, li4e the =olden +hield net%or4 and databases, that alert local police %hen persons of interest re:ister in hotels, buy plane tic4ets, or anythin: else reMuirin: identification& 7hile these capabilities :ive local

authorities :reater a%areness, most importantly they supplement the political means to isolate :rievances by trac4in: activists across different :eo:raphic localities& Finally, modern communication technolo:y has forced the central :overnment propa:anda system to evolve to the ne% environment & 2ontrollin: the public discourse no% reMuires
more than 'ust pre(publication censorship of ne%spapers and, ar:uably, the system has moved to%ard post(publication crac4do%ns to encoura:e self( censorship throu:h uncertainty& 1ei'in: also has moved to reduce the anonymity of the CnternetJ most recently,

reMuirin: true name re:istration for microblo::in:Jand deployed increasin:ly sophisticated systems to scrub or discredit unpalatable information& /ore importantly, the e5panded sphere for public discourse has forced the :overnment at all levels to
e5pose itself by en:a:in: society throu:h microblo:s, editorials, and selective open :overnment initiatives more freMuently to try to shape ho% the public converses& 7hile the aforementioned policies %ill affect ho% %ell the 2hinese :overnment deals %ith civil unrest,

the failure of these strate:ies does not necessarily mean the 22P %ill lose po%er& 9he lon:evity of police(states has confounded some observers, but states :enerally survive %hile the :overnment maintains le:itimacy and control over mass violence& Put into observables, the 4ey Muestions revolve around central :overnment credibility and the loyalty of the military& 6espite the tens of thousands of protests each yearJmany related to official corruptionJ 2hinese demonstrators li4e those in 7u4an still appeal to 1ei'in: for succor& 2ontinuin: appeals indicate t%o thin:s& First, the central :overnment maintains some popular le:itimacy& +econd, 1ei'in:8s strate:y of locali)in: :rievances %hile insulatin: the center from blame is %or4in:& 7hen protestors no lon:er appeal to 1ei'in:, then the 22P8s ability to maintain control %ill rest on the state8s coercive po%er to 4eep the cor4 in the bottle& +econdly, the final arbiter of 22P po%er is the armed mi:ht of the People8s Kiberation Army (PKA* %ith the People8s Armed Police (PAP*& 9heir professionalism has lon: been defined by contribution to the survival of the 22PJas /ao Zedon: said, political po%er :ro%s out of the barrel of the :un& 9he PKA may still be the
Party8s army and not the 2hinese nation8s, but the technical reMuirements of modern %ar may be pushin: the PKA to%ard the latter& 9he threshold for political chan:e %ill move hi:her or lo%er by the direction of PKA professionalism to%ard creatin: military or political po%er, respectively& An apolitical PKA devoted to the technical e5pertise of creatin: military po%er %ill have a different set of institutional priorities distinct from the political leadership,

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potentially creatin: a reluctance to support the PAP& 9hese

MICHIGAN 7WS 2013

points should caution a:ainst readin: too much into the succession politics of the !Bth Party 2on:ress later this year& 9he 22P has created a po%erful apparatusJ military, intelli:ence, and propa:andaJthat %ill operate short of total brea4do%n in leadership cohesion , i&e& the
decision of some elites to contest the decisions of the party con:ress& 9he debates are over ho% best to maintain 22P po%erJnot %hether the party should :overn& 1oth 1ei'in:8s strate:ies for preservin: stability and the 4ey factors underpinnin: the 22P8s po%er

relative to society can and should be assessed re:ularly& +o far, 1ei'in: has performed remar4ably %ell usin: coercion and co(option& And before prematurely condemnin: the 22P to the dustbin of history, it is %orth notin: some moribund 2hinese dynasties survived for several centuries usin: these tactics & No &mpact to CC! collapse S&nostan%F 11 collection of reports and analysis focusin: on 2hinese social, cultural and political issues by a 'ournalist in 1ei'in: %ho previously tau:ht at a university in 0an'in: for three years (2haos after a 22P collapseH 0ot so much, B$22$2 !!, http#$$sinostand&com$2 !!$ B$22$chaos(after(a(ccp(collapse(not(so( much* $$ /+ 9he Party %ould have you believe that the country %ould dissolve into absolute chaosR that they8re the Glmer8s :lue holdin: the %hole ric4ety apparatus to:ether& 7ithout them, people %ould ta4e to the streets to pilla:e, rape, torture, 4ill, etc& Plenty of forei:n observers share that blea4 outloo4 too& 1ut a fe% %ee4s a:o C spo4e %ith 3ri 6adush, former 7orld 1an4 director of international trade and author of the boo4 Ju::ernaut# ;o% Gmer:in: /ar4ets Are -eshapin: =lobali)ation& ;e said 2hina8s =6P is pro'ected to :ro% at around DI annually for the ne5t @ years& Gven if there is a political crisis, that doesn8t mean that 2hina %ill not :ro%, he said& Cn economic terms, revolutions aren8t as catastrophic as they appear to be, especially in recent history& 9his chart maps G:ypt8s annual =6P :ro%th for the past D years&
9his measure sho%s ho% much the =6P :re% in a :iven year compared to %here it %as the previous year& Ct8s :ood for hi:hli:htin: economically disruptive events&

No CC! &nsta3&l&t' t(e part' &s stron) an% res&l&ent Don)n&anF 12 Professor and 6irector of the Gast Asian Cnstitute at the 0ational 3niversity of +in:apore and political scientist and political commentator on 2hina %ho has studied and %ritten on many aspects of contemporary 2hina and especially on 2hinese politics (Zhen:, 7hy the 2hinese 2ommunist Party %ill not collapse, 9he +traits 9imes, ?$!2$2 !2, http#$$ne%shub&nus&edu&s:$ne%s$!2 ?$P6F$2;C0G+G(st(!2sep( pA2"&pdf* $$ /+ 7hen %ill the 2hinese 2ommunist Party (22P* collapseH< 9his is almost a standard Muestion that people as4 %hen
they loo4 at 2hina ever since the !?B? pro(democracy movement& 9he rise of the Jasmine -evolution and the collapse of the re:imes in the /iddle Gast and 0orth Africa in recent years led many to believe that the days of the 22P are numbered, and it could collapse in years, months,

and even days& 9he fall of /r& 1o Yilai, %hich %as seen as a bitter po%er stru::le %ithin the re:ime, has reinforced this pessimism& ;o%ever, such a perception is far from the reality& 9he 22P continues to survive and e5pand& 9oday, it has become the lar:est political party in the %orld, %ith more than B million members & 7hile it is le:itimate to as4 %hether the 22P %ill collapse :iven the fact that the party is facin: mountin: problems, it is more important and meanin:ful to as4 %hy it has survived and developed& 9he survival of the 22P since the reform and openin: up of 2hina is not due to chance& Cn the past three decades, the 22P has transformed from a one(party dictatorship to an increasin:ly open party system& 9his differentiates the
22P from other communist parties in the Gastern 1loc before they collapsed& After the fall of communism, Gastern Guropean states chose the 7estern path, allo%in: different interests to found different political parties& 9o avoid such a misfortune, the 22P chose a different %ay by openin: the political process to all social and interest :roups& 9han4s to this choice, 2hina has evolved into an open party system under one(party rule& Openness is

becomin: an important feature of 2hina8s party system& Any political system that is not open %ill become e5clusive and closed& Only %ith openness can politics be inclusive & Cn the 7est, political openness materialises throu:h e5ternal pluralism, that is, multi(party politics, in %hich every 4ind of interest can find representation in a party& Cn 2hina, political openness is realised throu:h internal pluralism, %hich means the openness of the party& 7hen different interests emer:e in society, the rulin: party opens itself to them, absorbin: them into the re:ime and representin: their interests throu:h different mechanisms& 9he transformation of the 22P has been very rapid& +ince no opposition party is allo%ed, for any social :roup,
enterin: the political process of the 22P is the most efficient %ay to e5press its interests& 9he 9hree -epresents concept proposed by /r lian: Zemin in the early 2 s typically reflects the 22P8s realistic perception that it has to represent different social interests& 9oday, 2hina8s increasin:ly lar:e middle class, includin: private entrepreneurs, has demonstrated very stron: demand for political participation& 9his is %hy the rulin: party 4ept pace %ith the times by not only providin: constitutional protection to non(state(o%ned sectors, includin: private enterprises, but also allo%in: and encoura:in: private entrepreneurs to 'oin the rulin: party& 9he chan:e of the nature of party membership is an indicator & Cn the /aoist era,

since the reform, intellectuals, professionals and the ne%ly risen social stratum have made up an increasin: proportion in the party & After the
%or4ers, peasants and the People8s Kiberation Army (PKA* constituted the ma'ority of 22P membership, %hile

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successful incorporation of private entrepreneurs into the party and the political process,

MICHIGAN 7WS 2013

the 22P has no% be:un to put an emphasis on social mana:ement to e5pand its rulin: foundation by absorbin: more social forces, %hich have :ained si:nificant :ro%th and development in the past decades & As the social base of the 22P enlar:es, the demand for intra(party
democracy has also increased& 9his is %hy the rulin: party has been emphasisin: the importance of intra(party democracy and searchin: for manifold inner(party democracy in the past decade& 9he effectiveness of such internal pluralist openness is no less than that of any other system& Cnternal pluralism differentiates 2hina from re:imes in the Arab %orld %here most re:imes are closed, %ith one family (monarchy* or a fe% families chronically monopolisin: political po%er and dominatin: the country& 9he number of people enterin: politics from the lo%er social levels is much lar:er in 2hina than in many other countries, includin: democratic ones& 9he rule of the 22P is not based on a political family& Ct is a mass party %ith hi:hly diversified interests& A second feature of 2hina8s party system is that political openness has facilitated the rapid alternation of political elites& 9he nature of 7estern democracy is to realise peaceful alternation of political elites throu:h periodical elections& 2hina has refused to follo% the path of

7estern democracy and has developed a very efficient system of po%er succession& 9he late 6en: Yiaopin: %as successful in establishin: t%o related systems ( one is the e5it system for a:ed leaders, that is, the retirement systemR the other is the recruitment system to recruit talent from all levels of society& 1ecause of the a:e limit (that is, all leaders should retire from their positions once they reach the a:e of retirement*, the speed of elite succession at all levels is incomparable to any other system, includin: democracy& 9he system has produced t%o advanta:es& First, it avoids personal
dictatorship %hich prevailed from /ao Zedon: to 6en:& One contributin: factor is intra(party democracy or intra(party collective leadership system en:endered by internal pluralism& 9here are serious chec4s and balances in the hi:hest leadership of the 22P& 9he +tandin: 2ommittee of the Political 1ureau, the hi:hest and most po%erful decision(ma4in: body, is often re:arded as the symbol of a hi:hly centralised political system or authoritarianism& ;o%ever, its nine members have almost eMual po%er, %ith each havin: his$her decision(ma4in: area and havin: the most important say in that area& 9he term limit also matters& 0o%, in :eneral, leaders includin: the =eneral +ecretary of the 22P, the President of +tate, Premier and those holdin: other important positions are allo%ed to serve at most t%o terms in office, that is, ! years& 9his system is not hu:ely different from many 7estern presidential systems& Obviously, the term limit is an effective institutional constraint on personal dictatorship& 9hat is to say,

althou:h 2hina does not have a 7estern form of democracy, it has found a similar %ay to prevent personal dictatorship& 7hen a person or a family has dominated a country for several decades, the system is prone to malpractices and abuses, %hich are intolerable to the society& 9hese institutional features enable 2hinese politics to refresh itself at an e5tremely fast pace and can thus effectively reflect :enerational chan:es and chan:es of interests & 2ompared to many other political systems,
the 2hinese political system facilitates the rapid and massive rene%al of public officials& 7ith the ri:id enforcement of an a:e limit, thousands of officials leave their positions every year, %ith the same number of officials assumin: these positions& Althou:h such rapid mobility has its o%n disadvanta:es, it undeniably reflects the chan:in: times& A third feature of 2hina8s party system is its conduciveness to prompt policy

chan:es& Cn theory, the obstacle to policy chan:e in multi(party systems should be smaller than that in one(party states, for policies can chan:e %ith
the altemation of rulin: par( ties& 7hen a ne% party comes to po%er, it can discontinue policies initiated by the former rulin: party& ;o%ever, this is often not the case& Cn many democracies, opposition parties no lon:er serve their constructive rolesR instead, they

oppose merely for the sa4e of opposin:& 3nder such circumstances, substantial policy chan:es often become very difficult& Cn 2hina, this is not the case& Althou:h the 2hinese society often complains that the rulin: party is too slo% in ma4in: policy chan:es, they are implemented on a more rapid basis than in other political systems& From the !?B s to the !?? D and to this century, 2hina has achieved several si:nificant policy chan:es, such as the decision to open up the economy & Ct is difficult to understand the hu:e
chan:es in 2hina in these decades %ithout ta4in: into account the rulin: party8s immense ability to respond to situations %ith appropriate policy chan:es&

Manufactur&n) 3ase &s res&l&ent latest stat&st&cal stu%&es Sc(m&%tF 12 - Associate Editor, Manufacturing Business Technology, cites Bradley J. Holcom

, !"SM, !"S#, chair of the $nstitute for Supply Management Manufacturing Business Sur%ey !ommittee &Mi'e, ($SM) Manufacturing $s *+esilient*, -ed, ./01203.13, http)00444.foodmanufacturing.com0articles03.130./0ism-manufacturing-resilient5 -esilient and stron: are t%o of the best %ords to describe the current state of manufacturin: in the 3nited +tates , at least accordin:

to the /ay /anufacturin: C+/ -eport On 1usiness& Gconomic activity in the manufacturin: sector e5panded in /ay for the "@th consecutive month, and the overall economy :re% for the "Fth strai:ht month & 9he report also indicated there is little to no reason to thin4 anythin: %ill stand in the %ay of sustained :ro%th durin: the second half of 2 !2& C suspect %e are :oin: to see a continuation of this current trend over the ne5t fe% months, says 1radley J& ;olcomb, 2P+/, 2P+6, chair of the
Cnstitute for +upply /ana:ement /anufacturin: 1usiness +urvey 2ommittee& 9he P/C re:istered D"&D in /ay, do%n !&" percenta:e points %hen compared to April8s readin: of D@&B percent& A readin: above D percent indicates the manufacturin: economy is :enerally

e5pandin:, %hile a readin: belo% D percent means it is :enerally contractin:& Overall C thin4 it is a really solid report even thou:h the P/C is do%n !&", it is still operatin: in a very nice ran:e, as it has been all year , says ;olcomb, notin: that the avera:e P/C over the course of the past !2 months stands at D"&!& 0e% Orders 0o inde5 :ives ;olcomb more reason to e5pect future :ro%th in manufacturin: and the overall economy than this month8s C+/ 0e% Orders Cnde5& Ct re:istered F &! percent in /ay, its
hi:hest readin: since April of last year and an increase of !&? percenta:e points over April& C8m pretty pleased %ith that number, says ;olcomb& 0e% orders drive this %hole system& Order boo4s seem to be stron: across a broad array of industries, and that certainly bodes %ell for the ne5t several months& Prices One inde5 that read Muite different than it did a fe% short %ee4s a:o is C+/8s Prices Cnde5& Ct re:istered @E&D percent in /ay, do%n !"&D

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percenta:e points compared to the April readin: of F! percent& 9his

MICHIGAN 7WS 2013

is the first month the inde5 reflected a decrease in the price of ra% materials since 6ecember 2 !!, %hen it also re:istered @E&D percent& 9he inde5 hovered around F! percent for the past three months prior to this month8s si:nificant decrease, and it has approached no%here near the hei:hts it did in early(to(mid 2 !!&
3p until this month the Prices Cnde5 has been relatively moderate compared to last year, says ;olcomb& C thin4 last year %e %ere in the B s& 0o% %e are in the F s, %hich already si:nals moderatin: price increases& 0o% to see this fairly dramatic decrease is %elcome :ood ne%s& 7hat effect or effects %ill lo%er prices have on the manufacturin: industry and economy as a %holeH ;olcomb has a fe% ideas& Ct %ill indirectly have a fairly si:nificant impact pretty broadly, he says& C thin4 it %ill impact inventories& 7e8ll see inventories come up as they need to any%ay, because (companies* %ill be able to :et inventories at lo%er prices& 9hey need inventories to fill those stron: ne% orders, so it all %or4s to:ether& Gmployment Another reason

for future optimism is the steady, albeit slo%, :ro%th in the area of employment& C+/8s Gmployment Cnde5 re:istered DF&? in /ay, do%n &@ percenta:e points from the DE&" percent reported in April & Ct has been Muite the consistent inde5 over the course of the last several months, somethin: ;olcomb has li4ed to see& Gmployment is holdin: pretty steady and pretty even at a :ood stron: DF&?, he says& 9o the e5tent that stays up, that sho%s the confidence that manufacturin: has and a continuation of ne% orders& 9hat8s one to %atch& Production C+/8s Production Cnde5 re:istered DD&F in /ay, do%n D&@ percenta:e points %hen compared to the F! percent reported in April& ;o%ever, :iven the uptic4 in ne% orders, ;olcomb doesn8t e5pect it to decrease further in 2 !2& C thin4 it8s :oin: to be at or sli:htly above the current number, says ;olcomb& Cf you loo4 at the bac4lo:, %hich impacts production, it is do%n a bit& 9his means there
%on8t be as much of a pull& 1ut ne% orders more than overshado% that& C thin4 that8s %hat %e are :oin: to see& Overall, ;olcomb states he is Muite pleased %ith %hat he sa% from this month8s report& /anufacturin: a:ain has sho%n its resilience he says& C e5pect it to stay

that %ay&

Alt Cause2 =ual&f&e% "or#ers GI,F 12 =eor:ia Cnstitute of 9echnolo:y and the 2ouncil on 2ompetitiveness, (-eport on the 3&+& /anufacturin: 2ompetitiveness Cnitiative#
6ialo:ue on 0e5t =eneration +upply 0et%or4s and Ko:istics February 2B 2?, 2 !2, http#$$%%%&isye&:atech&edu$ne%s( events$special$usmci$0!"2" B(C+yG(3+/anufacturin:-eport&pdf*

Another of manufacturin:8s challen:es is a lac4 of Mualified factory %or4ers & 9his situation is, in part, a byproduct of public misconceptions that factory %or4 is a dirty, lo%(payin:, and dan:erous 'ob that is in short supply & 9his sti:ma has led a youn:er :eneration to pursue careers in other industries & ;o%ever, the era of uns4illed factory 'obs is over&
9oday8s %or4ers are hi:hly s4illed employees %ho operate comple5 eMuipment in safe, clean environments& 9he issue of resolvin: this situation of a deficit of %or4ers carries added ur:ency because 2&E million %or4ers, or one(fourth of all 3&+& %hite( and blue(collar manufacturin: employees, are a:ed fifty(five and above& 9he a:in: %or4force presents a 4no%led:e :ap as %ell because their tremendous store of

e5perience %ill retire %ith them rather than be passed alon: to youn:er %or4ers& A shorta:e of s4illed talent in manufacturin: is also be:innin: to be felt :lobally& Gven 2hina8s vast %or4force %ill be adversely affected in the near future by an insufficient supply of en:ineerin: talent in that country& A/, Cause2 ,a1es GI,F 12 =eor:ia Cnstitute of 9echnolo:y and the 2ouncil on 2ompetitiveness, (-eport on the 3&+& /anufacturin: 2ompetitiveness Cnitiative#
6ialo:ue on 0e5t =eneration +upply 0et%or4s and Ko:istics February 2B 2?, 2 !2, http#$$%%%&isye&:atech&edu$ne%s( events$special$usmci$0!"2" B(C+yG(3+/anufacturin:-eport&pdf*

/anufacturers also face an array of challen:es that fall under the :eneral headin: of ta5 and re:ulatory policy& 7hile everyone reco:ni)es the need for ta5esJand in many cases, everyone is %illin: to pay more for infrastructure improvementsJ the ta5 system :enerally does not provide incentives for critical e5pansion pro'ects& 9he transportation industry faces an array of :overnment policies coverin: everythin: from the permit process and route restrictions to environmental re:ulations and speed limitations& Cn an industry %here time is money, burdensome re:ulations are costin: too much of both& 3&+& compliance and enforcement approaches create e5cessive costs, timin: delays, and re:ulatory ris4s for 3&+& infrastructure and manufacturin: investments& 2omple5 ta5 codes drive investment in hi:h(cost overhead to develop and e5ecute ta5(minimi)ation strate:ies and may create ne:ative bias in plannin: decisions, causin: many to conservatively evaluate investments based on statutory rather than lo%er effective rates& As businesses face mountin:
pressures to increase productivity and still deliver ne% lines of Muality products, tryin: to forecast consumer spendin: is :ettin: harder for suppliers throu:hout the industrial supply chain& Productivity %ill be only as :ood as our ability to reframe our supply approach by

minimi)in: individual costs and system costs, decreasin: cost to capacity assurance, inte:ratin: product orderin: into transportation capacity, and rethin4in: the entire distribution paradi:m& Finally, 3&+& competitiveness suffers from the lac4 of a national industrial policy& All of the other ma'or tradin: nations follo% a blueprint of strate:ies, ob'ectives, and benchmar4s for coordinatin: and
advancin: their competitive positions in the %orld mar4et& 9he 3&+&, by contrast, follo%s a short(term approach :uided more by the t%o(year election cycle than by lon:(term, sustainable economic development that plans for ten or t%enty years do%n the road&

/ac# of :o3s mean &ts not #e'

Nuclear War MICHIGAN 7WS 2013 73/221 I#ensonF 12 ( director of the ;erbert A& +tiefel 2enter for 9rade Policy +tudies at the 2ato Cnstitute (6aniel, 3&+& 6oesnAt 0eed Cndustrial Policy,
/ay !D, 2 !2, http#$$%%%&cato&or:$publications$commentary$us(doesnt(need(industrial(policy* For a nation %hose consumers spend t%ice as much on services than on :oods, and %here ? I of

the %or4force is employed outside the manufacturin: sector, the obsession %ith manufacturin: is misplaced& 9his romantici)ed notion about manufacturin:As value to the 3&+& economy often fosters policies %ith pernicious lon:(term economic effects# ta5 brea4s, subsidies, trade barriers and other coddlin: mar4et distortions& Gven 2hristina -omer, an architect of President ObamaAs <stimulus< plan
and one %ho is obviously not averse to :overnment tin4erin: %ith the economy, concludes# <American consumers value health care and haircuts as much as %ashin: machines and hair dryers& And our earnin:s from e5portin: architectural plans for a buildin: in +han:hai are as real as those from e5portin: cars to 2anada&&& A persuasive case for a manufacturin: policy remains to be made &< /anufacturin: apolo:ists erroneously point to 2hinaAs near(double( di:it :ro%th durin: the slu::ish 3&+& economic recovery as further evidence that top(do%n economic policies can ensure economic health& 1ut 2hinaAs evolution from subsistence to midlevel manufacturin: is not instructive for an economy at the technolo:ical fore&

Cndustrial policy is anathema to value(driven innovation, and thus doesnAt play to AmericaAs stren:ths& 2hina
en:a:es in industrial policy because it doesnAt have the advanta:es of the 3&+&, such as a culture that values dissent and e5perimentation and that has cultivated institutions supportin: innovation, brandin: and entrepreneurship& 7ith AmericaAs pre(eminence in innovation and

entrepreneurship still intact, the 3&+& is situated at the top of the :lobal value chain& +tayin: there %ill reMuire policies that bolster the rule of la%, in'ect :reater certainty into the business climate, and encoura:e the best and the bri:htest to come and stay in the country& 7e must treat entrepreneurs as roc4 stars, not %ith contempt& S#&lle% "or#ers mean no )ro"t( @e&c(F 12 former 3&+& secretary of labor, is professor of public policy at 32 1er4eley (-obert, 3nions, not manufacturin:, 4ey to economic
revival February 2F, 2 !2 http#$$%%%&sf:ate&com$opinion$reich$article$3nions(not(manufacturin:(4ey(to(economic(revival( ""F!! B&phpOi5))2Dv:Pv12f* 1ut American manufacturin: %onAt be comin: bac4& Althou:h @ @, manufacturin: 'obs have been added since January 2 ! , that still & 9he lon:(term trend is fe%er and fe%er factory 'obs & After 7orld 7ar CC, ! in " Americans %as employed in manufacturin:R today itAs ! in B& Gven if %e didnAt have to compete %ith lo%er(%a:e %or4ers leaves D&D million fe%er factory 'obs today than in July 2 overseas, %eAd still have fe%er factory 'obs because the old assembly line has been replaced by numerically controlled machine tools and robotics& /anufacturin: is :oin: hi:h(tech, and as a result its productivity has s4yroc4eted ( meanin: fe%er 'obs& 1rin:in: bac4 American manufacturin: isnAt the real challen:e, any%ay& CtAs creatin: :ood 'obs for the ma'ority of Americans %ho lac4 four(year colle:e de:rees&

/anufacturin: used to supply lots of these 4inds of 'obs, but that %as because factory %or4ers %ere represented by unions po%erful enou:h to :et hi:h %a:es& 9hatAs no lon:er the case& Gven the once(mi:hty 3nited Auto

7or4ers has been forced to accept pay pac4a:es for ne% hires at the 1i: 9hree of only [!@ an hour ( half %hat ne% hires :ot a decade a:o, and about the same as most of AmericaAs service(sector %or4ers& =/ 'ust announced record profit, but its ne% %or4ers %onAt be :ettin: much of a share& Cf thereAs a sin:le reason the median %a:e has dropped dramatically for non(colle:e %or4ers over the past " !$2 decades, itAs the decline of unions& Cn the !?D s, more than a third of American %or4ers %ere represented by a union& 0o%, fe%er than E percent of private(sector %or4ers have a union behind them& ;o% do the candidates stand on unionsH -omney vo%s to pass <ri:ht(to(%or4< le:islation barrin: 'ob reMuirements of union membership and payment of union dues ( a proven %ay to bust unions& <CAve ta4en on union bosses before,< he says, <and CAm happy to ta4e them on a:ain&< 7hen -omneyAs not blamin: 2hina for American manufacturersA competitive problems, he blames hi:h union %a:es& +antorum says he supports private(sector unions and %hile in the +enate voted a:ainst a national ri:ht(to(%or4 la% (-omney is no% attac4in: him on this*& 1ut +antorum isnAt interested in stren:thenin: unions, and he doesnAt li4e them in the public sector& Obama praises <unioni)ed plants< ( such as /aster Koc4, the /il%au4ee ma4er of padloc4s he visited this month, %hich brou:ht bac4 ! 'obs from 2hina& 1ut the president has not promised that if re(elected heAd push for the Gmployee Free 2hoice Act, %hich %ould ma4e it easier for %or4ers to or:ani)e a union& ;e had supported it in the 2 B election but never moved the le:islation once elected& 9he president has also been noticeably silent on the labor stru::les that have been roilin: the /id%est, from 7isconsinAs assault on the bar:ainin: ri:hts of public employees throu:h CndianaAs recently enacted ri:ht(to(%or4 la% ( the first in the -ust 1elt& 9he fact is, American corporations ( both manufacturin: and services ( are doin: %onderfully %ell& 9heir third(Muarter profits (the latest data available* totaled [2 trillion& 9hatAs !? percent hi:her than the pre(recession pea4 five years a:o& 1ut American %or4ers arenAt sharin: in this bounty& Althou:h 'obs are slo%ly returnin:, %a:es continue to drop, ad'usted for inflation& Of every dollar of income earned in the 3nited +tates in the third Muarter, 'ust @@ cents %ent to %or4ersA %a:es and salaries ( the smallest share since the :overnment be:an 4eepin: trac4 in !?@E& 9he fundamental problem isnAt the decline of American manufacturin:, and revivin: manufacturin: %onAt solve it& 9he problem is the declinin: po%er of American

%or4ers to share in the :ains of the American economy& +tron:er unions are needed ( in both manufacturin: and in services&

Alt cause2 -cua%or2Colom3&a Cr&s&s Du1&aF 0? (Jian: Pu5ia staff %riter, 2 B( "( F OA+ credibility is at sta4e in Gcuador(2olombia crisis,
http#$$ne%s&5inhuanet&com$en:lish$2 B( "$ F$contentLEE2B@@D&htm*$mm -CO 6G JA0GC-O, /arch D (Yinhua* (( 1ra)ilian Forei:n /inister 2elso Amorim said 7ednesday that the credibility of the

Or:ani)ation of American +tates (OA+* %ould be at sta4e if it failed to solve the Gcuador(2olombia diplomatic crisis& <9he OA+ 000.AS Cre%&3&l&t'000

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needs to act Muic4ly& 9hat is important for its credibility, < said the minister& ;e added that if OA+ did not come up %ith a solution, the impasse %ould be discussed at the 2 th summit of the -io =roup, the permanent mechanism of political consultation and coordination for Katin America and the 2aribbean, %hich %ill :ather officials of !? countries on /arch E in the 6ominican -epublic& 9he summit %as scheduled to discuss ener:y, natural catastrophes and development, but the re:ional crisis that has been bre%in: since 2olombian forces destroyed a -evolutionary

may become the main debate on the a:enda& Accordin: to Amorim, the 1ra)ilian :overnment does not favor the involvement of the 3nited +tates in the
Armed Forces of 2olombia (FA-2* camp in Gcuador +aturday, 4illin: 2! rebels, includin: the :roupAs 0o&2 leader -aul -eyes, impasse, as it re:ards the affair as e5clusively Katin AmericaAs& <9his is a Katin American matter& 9he more %e 4eep the issue in the Katin American scope, the bi::er are the chances to solve it,< he said& Cn a meetin: %ith Gcuadorian President -afael 2orrea in 1rasilia 7ednesday, Amorim said that 1ra)ilian President Kui) Cnacio Kula da +ilva %as committed to helpin: Gcuador and 2olombia find a peaceful solution to the crisis&

.AS Aa&ls pol&t&cal %&fferences an% restr&ct&ons /eeF 12 2 1rianna Kee, +enior Production Gditor 9he Or:ani)ation of American +tates http#$$%%%&cfr&or:$latin(america(and(the(
caribbean$or:ani)ation(american(states$p2E?@DOp" April !", 2 !2*$mm

political ideolo:ies have diversified %ithin the re:ion, this has made it difficult for the OA+ to ma4e Muic4, decisive calls to action& 9he polari)ation bet%een American states has also led to one of the OA+As other ma'or shortcomin:s # its many mandates
One of the OA+As ma'or administrative constraints is its consensus model, %hich reMuires a unanimous vote to ma4e many of its decisions& As unrelated to the core mission& Cn 2 ! , 3&+& +ecretary of +tate ;illary 2linton ur:ed the OA+ to streamline its processes (QOA* from %hat she called a <proliferation of mandates,< notin: that the e5pansion of mandates %ithout proportional e5pansion of fundin: made for an <unsustainable< fiscal future& Glection monitorin:, one of the OA+As ma'or functions in li:ht of its commitment to democracy, is also restricted by its inability to

send election observers %ithout the invitation of state :overnments & <9hey canAt condemn a country unless that country %ants
to be condemned,< 2F-As OA0eil says& 0evertheless, she adds, it has become a norm in many member countries to accept OA+ monitors, %hich she says has been helpful& 7ithin the hemisphere, conflictin: vie%s on the OA+As loyalties abound & Cn the summer 2 !! issue of Americas ,uarterly, Anthony 6ePalma sums up the ran:e of mistrust# <Cnsul)a and the OA+

itself are %idely seen as bein: bullied by Qene)uela (he denies it*, as caterin: to \Qene)uelan President] ;u:o 2have)As friends in 1olivia, Gcuador and 0icara:ua (evidence su::ests other%ise* and, stran:ely, still beholden to the 3&+&, even thou:h 7ashin:ton seems to have lost interest&< 2have) has called the OA+ a puppet of the 3nited +tatesR at the same time, in July 2 !!, the 3&+& ;ouse 2ommittee on
Forei:n Affairs passed a -epublican(sponsored bill to defund the OA+ (Forei:nPolicy*, on the char:e that the or:ani)ation supported anti(democracy re:imes in Katin America&

.AS fa&ls 2 structural %ef&c&enc&es an% poor lea%ers(&p Darem3lumF 04 (JAC/G 6A-G/1K3/ staff %riter http#$$%%%&%ee4lystandard&com$2ontent$Public$Articles$ $ the OA+ O29 22, 2 ? o 1P JAC/G 6A-G/1K3/*

$ !E$! @Mcsmd&aspA 2redibility =ap at

+everal decades after its foundin: as the 7estern ;emisphereAs premier democratic forum, the Or:ani)ation of American +tates ( OA+*

is in dan:er of becomin: irrelevant& As a former Katin America diplomat, C say this %ith :reat re:ret& 9he OA+ should be a po%erful vehicle for defendin: democracy and promotin: re:ional cooperation& Pet, it has been %ea4ened and corrupted by poor leadership and structural deficiencies& 9he poor leadership has come from Josg /i:uel Cnsul)a, a 2hilean socialist %ho has served as secretary :eneral of the OA+ since 2 D& Cnsul)a has politici)ed the institution and pursued ideolo:ical causes that have little (if any* connection to Katin AmericaAs most pressin: challen:es& Garlier this year, for e5ample, Cnsul)a spearheaded an a::ressive
movement to end 2ubaAs @E(year(old suspension from the OA+& C have never seen the or:ani)ation so ener:i)ed over a sin:le issue& Cn early June, Cnsul)a and his allies :ot their %ay, as the ban on 2uban membership %as lifted (thou:h the island %as not formally readmitted*& Accordin: to its charter, one of the <essential purposes< of the OA+ is <to promote and consolidate representative democracy&< Pet at a time %hen democracy is bein:

rolled bac4 in several of its member countries, the OA+ has been preoccupied %ith embracin: a 2ommunist dictatorship((a dictatorship that says it has no interest in 'oinin: the democratic club& .AS fa&ls consensus fa&lure an% un%erm&ne% percept&on sacsonF 12 2 Adam Csacson staff %riter, 2onflict -esolution in the Americas# 9he 6ecline of the OA+, 22 /ay 2 !2, http#$$%%%&%orldpoliticsrevie%&com$articles$!!?E?$conflict(resolution(in(the(americas(the(decline(of(the(oas * <9he \Or:ani)ation of American +tates] is an enemy of the 3&+& and an enemy to the interests of freedom and security,< said -ep& 6avid -ivera, a -epublican con:ressman from Florida, in July 2 !! as he 'oined the ;ouse Forei:n Affairs 2ommitteeAs =OP
ma'ority in votin: to cut off 3&+& fundin: for the OA+& -ivera8s lo% re:ard for the or:ani)ation %as matched by Qene)uelan President ;u:o 2hfve), %ho in ur:in: the nations of Katin America and the 2aribbean to form a ne% re:ional bloc e5cludin: the 3nited +tates said, < Pou can8t e5pect much

from the OA+& Ct8s li4e a corpse that must be buried&< 9he Or:ani)ation of American +tates8 troubles :o beyond bein: attac4ed from both e5tremes of the ideolo:ical spectrum& 9he April 2 !2 +ummit of the Americas sho%ed many of the re:ionAs presidents disa:reein:, at times sharply, %ith the 3nited +tates on 4ey issues li4e dru: policy and diplomacy to%ard 2ubaR several said they sa% little reason to continue %ith the series of periodic meetin:s that be:an in !??D& Katin American :overnments, mean%hile, have

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formed a handful of parallel or:ani)ations that e5plicitly e5clude the 3nited +tates& 7hat is :oin: on hereH 9he OA+, the %orldAs oldest re:ional or:ani)ation, has never been a diplomatic po%erhouse& +ince the Pan(American 3nionAs foundin: in !?! , it has rarely been the center of :ravity for the 7estern ;emisphereAs politics or diplomacy& Ct has helped to resolve only a small fraction of the re:ionAs armed conflicts or

crises that threatened to deteriorate into conflicts& Cnstead, the OA+ has functioned as a multilateral soundin: board, a place to build consensus around broad policies , from anti(communism to counternarcotics to counterterrorism& 9he ability
to discuss issues at re:ular :eneral assemblies and special sessions has reduced friction amon: its members& And some OA+ components (( the Cnter( American ;uman -i:hts 2ommission, electoral observer missions and efforts to verify postconflict demobili)ations (( have made important contributions to re:ional peace, security and democracy& 1ut the OA+ has been hampered by its desi:n, %hich 4eeps it

deliberately %ea4& 9he or:ani)ation operates on a consensus model, in %hich a determined minority can prevent action& Cts one country, one vote system means that a tiny state li4e +t& Kucia has as much voice as a lar:e state li4e 1ra)il& 9he OA+ has no analo:ue to the 3&0& +ecurity 2ouncil and no dispute(resolution or peace(enforcement mechanism to deal %ith breaches of the peace li4e that contemplated in 2hapters QC and QCC of the 3&0& 2harter& 9he OA+ is also hampered by a perception, reinforced durin: the 2old 7ar, that the 7ashin:ton(based body is dominated by the 3nited +tates& 9his is perhaps inevitable :iven the asymmetry of %ealth and po%er bet%een the 3nited +tates and its re:ional nei:hbors& +till, the perception of an uneven playin: field has dama:ed the or:ani)ationAs <honest bro4er< status and made Katin American states reluctant to ta4e decisions that mi:ht reMuire them to cede soverei:nty to the OA+, even for the benefit of a :reater :ood& As a result, the OA+ has not been vie%ed as a forum for debatin: dru: policy& Cnstead, the
Cnter(American 6ru: Abuse 2ontrol 2ommission (2C2A6*, %hich is lar:ely funded by the 3nited +tates, has reinforced 7ashin:ton8s hard(line approach emphasi)in: supply reduction& 0or has the OA+ been a leadin: voice on re:ional security issuesR little of note has emer:ed from its +ecretariat for /ultidimensional +ecurity since it %as established in the %a4e of the +ept& !! attac4s& 9he or:ani)ationAs security :uarantees e5ist mostly on paper# 9he !?@E Cnter(American -eciprocal Assistance 9reaty, %hich commits all countries to vie% an attac4 a:ainst one as an attac4 a:ainst all, has not been meanin:fully invo4ed in decades, and /e5ico dropped out of it entirely in the 2 2 run(up to the CraM 7ar&

.AS consensus 3loc#s effect&+eness reforms not fun%&n) #e' Nor&e)aF 11 (-o:er F& 0orie:a p Katin American AdvisorAu:ust ?, 2 !!;o% important is the Or:ani)ation of American +tatesH,
http#$$%%%&aei&or:$article$forei:n(and(defense(policy$international(or:ani)ations$ho%(important(is(the(or:ani)ation(of(american(states$* <9he OA+A central stren:th is that it operates by consensus and can serve to or:ani)e a :enuinely re:ional response to crises& ;o%ever, %hen

:roup of countries bloc4 consensus on the most fundamental issues (such as promotin: democracy or fi:htin: terrorism or dru:s* in a conscious effort to undermine the or:ani)ationAs effectiveness, AconsensusA becomes a %ea4ness & 9he secretary :eneral can defend the credibility and independence of the OA+ if he has the political %ill to do so& Ct is
clear that Josg /i:uel Cnsul)a has failed in this responsibility& ;e has let himself be bullied by Qene)uela and its cliMue of client states, and he has been un%illin: or unable to :et the 3nited +tates, 1ra)il, 2anada or other 4ey :overnments to %or4 %ith him to do the 'ob he %as elected to do& ;is re(election %as a nadir for the OA+, because no :overnment cared enou:h to field a credible alternative& 1ecause dictatorships are bein: created to

mu))le popular %ill, the OA+ should be reformed to create a forum for the voice of the people (in the form of
independent branches of :overnment, credible 0=Os, media or:ani)ations or political parties* to be heard& 6onor :overnments should be permitted to allocate their re:ular fund contributions to their priorities& 9he 4ey states should meet informally on a re:ular basis to a:ree on a constructive a:enda for the OA+ and to identify issues that should be put to a vote& And, the secretary :eneral should be elected to a sin:le five(year term and should resi:n as soon as he or she becomes a candidate for another public office&<

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>S2Cu3a @elat&ons
Cu3a an% >S relat&ons t(a"&n) no" ne" rapproc(ement pro+es W/@N 7/3/13 /iami -adio +tation (7hy 9his +ummer Offers ;ope For 1etter 3&+&(2uba -elations, E$"$!",
http#$$%lrn&or:$post$%hy(summer(offers(hope(better(us(cuba(relations*$$7K Ki4e a lot of idealistic 3&+& presidents, 1arac4 Obama too4 office in 2 ? hopin: to establish better dialo:ue %ith communist 2uba& -emember his plan to pursue direct diplomacy %ith ;avanaH 9hen he Muic4ly discovered %hat most 3&+& presidents find out# First, communist 2uba really doesn8t %ant improved dialo:ue %ith 7ashin:ton, since conflict %ith the 3&+& offers more political payoff on the island& ;ence 2uban leader -a_l 2astro8s 2 ? 2hristmas :ift to Obama# the arrest of 3&+& aid subcontractor Alan =ross on dubious espiona:e char:es& +econd, the hardline 3&+& 2uban e5ile lobby doesn8t %ant improved dialo:ue %ith ;avana, since conflict %ith 2uba offers (or has traditionally offered* more political payoff here& ;ence the 2uban( American con:ressional caucus8 efforts in 2 !! to 4eep Obama from lettin: convicted 2uban spy -eng =on)fle) return home to finish his probation, a fairly beni:n :esture that mi:ht have enhanced the chances of =ross8 release& And yet, despite all that recent cold(%ar commotion, could this

finally be the summer of love on the Florida +traitsH Kast month the Obama Administration and the 2astro dictatorship started tal4s on re(establishin: direct mail serviceR this month they8ll discuss immi:ration :uidelines& 6iplomats on both sides report a more cooperative :roove& 0e% 6iplomacy +o %hat happened that8s suddenly ma4in: it possible for the t%o :overnments to start some substantive diplomatic outreach for the first time in yearsH First, 2astro finished crunchin: the numbers on 2uba8s threadbare economy, and the results scared him more than one of Poani +fnche)8s dissident blo: posts& 9o %it, the island8s finances are held up by little more than Guropean tourists and oil charity from socialist Qene)uela& ;e8s adopted limited capitalist reforms as the remedy, and to ma4e them %or4 he has to loosen the repressive scre%s a turn or t%o& 9hat finally includes lettin: 2ubans travel freely abroad, %hich :ives them better opportunities to brin: bac4 investment capital& As a result, says 2arlos +aladri:as, a 2uban(American business leader in /iami and chairman of the 7ashin:ton(based 2uba +tudy =roup, 9he timin: is ri:ht for some 3&+&(2uban rapprochement& 2uba is clearly in a transitionary mode, says +aladri:as& 9hey need to chan:e to reinsert themselves in the :lobal
order, they need to become more normal in their relations %ith other nations& 2han:in: Attitudes +econd, althou:h the 7hite ;ouse is still intimidated by the 2uban e5ile lobby, it8s had its o%n numbers to ponder (( namely, poll results from +outh Florida8s 2uban(American community& Over the past five years, surveys have consistently sho%n that 2uban(Americans, especially the more moderate youn:er :eneration and more recently arrived 2ubans, favor en:a:ement %ith 2uba as a %ay of promotin: democrati)ation there& +ome polls even indicate that a ma'ority %ant to ditch the failed D!(year(old 3&+& trade embar:o a:ainst 2uba& As a result, Obama (( %ho accordin: to one e5it poll %on @BI of Florida8s 2uban vote in last year8s presidential election, %hich %ould be a record for a 6emocratic candidate (( feels more elbo% room for diflo:o %ith the 2astro re:ime& 9he Administration even recently let =on)fle) return to 2uba& 9he 2uban(American community in /iami is definitely chan:in:, says 2uban(American Glena Freyre, president of the Foundation for 0ormali)ation of 3&+&(2uba -elations in /iami& Ct8s reached 4ind of a critical mass at this point, and C thin4 people are ready to try somethin: different& Freyre notes that Obama8s appointment this year of former /assachusetts +enator John >erry as the ne% 3&+& secretary of state is also havin: an impact& /r& >erry has al%ays felt \the 3&+&8s] position %ith 2uba made no sense, she says& ;e8s been very vocal about thin4in: that if %e en:a:e 2uba %e %ill :et a lot further& >erry, for e5ample, believes the 3&+& should lift its ban on 3&+& citi)en travel to 2uba& 2onflict As +cape:oat +till, there are 'ust as many reasons to be pessimistic (( startin: %ith the imprisonment of the F@(year(old =ross, %ho is servin: a !D(year prison sentence in 2uba& +aladri:as says that8s a si:n that communist hardliners still hold s%ay on the island& 2onflict %ith the 3&+& has been the perfect scape:oat for many of the problems and failures of \their] revolution, he notes& 9he 2astro re:ime says the 3&+& does its o%n part to further that conflict by 4eepin: 2uba on a list of state sponsors of terrorism, even thou:h there appears to be scant evidence for doin: so& 2uban(American 2on:ressman /ario 6ia)( 1alart recently told Fo5 0e%s that 2uba should be vie%ed more li4e 0orth >orea, or compare it to Cran& 9o a :ro%in: number of 2uban(Americans in +outh Florida, ho%ever, that sounds more li4e hardliner hyperbole& Kast %ee4, in fact, many 2uba %atchers %ondered %hether

fu:itive 3&+& intelli:ence lea4er Gd%ard +no%den did not board a fli:ht from /osco% to ;avana because 2astro, :iven the ne% 3&+&(2uba dialo:uista climate, preferred (for the moment any%ay* not to irritate 7ashin:ton& Cf so, let8s see if the love lasts lon:er than the summer& @elat&ons slo"l' &mpro+&n) no" <ancou+er Sun */22 (-elations tha% bet%een 2uba, 3&+&, F$22$!",
http#$$%%%&vancouversun&com$ne%s$-elations`tha%`bet%een`2uba$BDF@EBD$story&html*$$7K
9heyAve hardly become allies, but 2uba

and the 3&+& have ta4en some baby steps to%ard rapprochement in recent %ee4s that have people on this island and in 7ashin:ton %onderin: if a brea4throu:h in relations could be 'ust over the hori)on& +4eptics caution that the 2old 7ar enemies have been here many times before, only to fall bac4 into old recriminations& 1ut there are si:ns that vie%s mi:ht be shiftin: on both sides of the Florida +traits & Cn the past %ee4, the t%o countries have held tal4s on resumin: direct mail service, and announced a July !E sit(do%n on mi:ration issues & Cn /ay, a 3&+& federal 'ud:e allo%ed a convicted 2uban intelli:ence a:ent to return to the island& 9his month, 2uba informed the family of 'ailed 3&+& :overnment subcontractor Alan =ross that it %ould let an American doctor e5amine him & 2astro has also ushered in a series of economic and social chan:es, includin: ma4in: it easier for 2ubans to travel off the island& 3nder the radar, diplomats on both sides describe a sea chan:e in the tone& Only last year, 2uban state television %as broadcastin: :rainy foota:e of American diplomats meetin: %ith
( a visit that came ri:ht before the announcements of resumptions in the t%o sets of bilateral tal4s that had been suspended for more than t%o years& < 9hese

dissidents on ;avana streets and publicly accusin: them of bein: 2CA frontmen& 9oday, 3&+& diplomats in ;avana and 2uban Forei:n /inistry officials have easy contact, even sharin: home phone numbers& Josefina Qidal, 2ubaAs top diplomat for 0orth American affairs, recently travelled to 7ashin:ton and met t%ice %ith +tate 6epartment officials

recent

000@elat&ons000

Nuclear War MICHIGAN 7WS 2013 77/221 steps indicate a desire on both sides to try to move for%ard, but also a reco:nition on both sides of 'ust ho% difficult it is to ma4e real pro:ress,< said -obert Pastor, a professor of international relations at American 3niversity& <9hese are tiny, incremental :ains,
and the prospects of :oin: bac4%ards are eMually hi:h&< Amon: the thin:s that have chan:ed, John >erry has ta4en over as 3&+& secretary of state after bein: an outspo4en critic of 7ashin:tonAs policy on 2uba %hile in the +enate& 3&+& President 1arac4 Obama no lon:er has re(election concerns %hile dealin: %ith the 2uban(American electorate in Florida, %here there are also indications of a %armin: attitude to ne:otiatin: %ith 2uba& 2uban President -aul 2astro, mean%hile, is

strivin: to overhaul the islandAs /ar5ist economy %ith a dose of limited free(mar4et capitalism and may feel a need for more open relations %ith the 3&+& 7hile direct American investment is still barred on the island, a rise in visits and money transfers by 2uban(Americans since Obama rela5ed restrictions has been a boon for 2ubaAs cash(starved economy& +everal prominent 2uban dissidents have been allo%ed to travel recently due to 2astroAs chan:es& 9he trips have been applauded by 7ashin:ton& Ki4e%ise, a 3&+& federal 'ud:eAs decision to allo% 2uban spy -ene =on)ale) to return home %as met %ith only muted criticism inside the 3nited +tates, perhaps emboldenin: 3&+& diplomats to see4 further openin:s %ith 2uba& @elat&ons not &mpro+&n) >S m&ss&n) c(ance for stron)er rapproc(ement <ancou+er Sun */22 (-elations tha% bet%een 2uba, 3&+&, F$22$!",
http#$$%%%&vancouversun&com$ne%s$-elations`tha%`bet%een`2uba$BDF@EBD$story&html*$$7K

9here is still far more that separates the lon:time anta:onists than unites them& 9he +tate 6epartment has 4ept 2uba on a list of state sponsors of terrorism and another that calls into Muestion ;avanaAs commitment to fi:htin: human traffic4in:& 9he Obama administration continues to demand democratic chan:e on an island ruled for more
than a half century by 2astro and his brother Fidel& 9ed ;en4en, a professor of Katin American studies at 1aruch 2olle:e in 0e% Por4 %ho helped or:ani)e a recent 3&+& tour by 2uban dissident blo::er Poani +anche), said the Obama administration is too concerned %ith

upsettin: 2uban(American politicians and has missed opportunities to en:a:e %ith 2uba at a crucial time in its history& <C thin4 that a lot more %ould have to happen for this to amount to momentum leadin: to any 4ind of ma'or diplomatic brea4throu:h,< he said& <Obama should be bolder and more audacious&< Gven these limited moves have spar4ed fierce criticism by those lon: opposed to en:a:ement& 2uban(American con:ressman /ario 6ia) 1alart, a Florida -epublican, called the recent overtures <disturbin:&< <-ather than attemptin: to le:itimi)e the 2uban peopleAs oppressors, the administration should demand that the re:ime stop harbourin: fu:itives from 3&+& 'ustice, release all political prisoners and American humanitarian aid %or4er Alan =ross, end the brutal, escalatin: repression a:ainst the 2uban people and respect basic human ri:hts ,< he
said&

Man' roa%3loc#s to &mpro+&n) relat&ons no c(an)es are com&n) Hanson an% /ee 1/31 ( .+tephanie is associate director and coordinatin: editor at the 2ouncil on Forei:n -elations& +he mana:es the %ebsite and covers economic and political development in Katin America ..1rianna is a +enior Production Gditor at 2F- (3&+&(2uba -elations, !$"!$!", 2ouncil on Forei:n -elations,
http#$$%%%&cfr&or:$cuba$us(cuba(relations$p!!!!"*$$7K 7hat is the status of 3&+&(2uba relations H 9hey it has minimal communication %ith the 2uban :overnment& +ince

are virtually none5istent& 9here is a 3&+& mission in ;avana, 2ubaAs capital, but !?F!, the official 3&+& policy to%ard 2uba has been t%o(pron:ed#

economic embar:o and diplomatic isolation& 9he =eor:e 7& 1ush administration stron:ly enforced the embar:o and increased travel
restrictions& Americans %ith immediate family in 2uba could visit once every three years for a ma5imum of t%o %ee4s, %hile family remittances to 2uba %ere reduced from [", to 'ust [" in 2 @& ;o%ever, in April 2 ?, President Obama eased some of these policies& ;e %ent further in 2 !! to undo many of the restrictions imposed by the 1ush administration, thus allo%in: 3&+& citi)ens to send remittances to non(family members in 2uba and to travel to 2uba for educational or reli:ious purposes& 2on:ress amended the trade embar:o in 2 to allo% a:ricultural e5ports from the 3nited +tates to 2uba& Cn 2 B, 3&+& companies e5ported rou:hly [E! million %orth of food and a:ricultural products to the island nation, accordin: to the 3&+&(2uba 9rade and Gconomic 2ouncil& ;o%ever, that number fell by about D percent in 2 !2& 9otal a:ricultural e5ports since 2 ! reached ["&D billion as of February 2 !2& 0ebras4a, O4lahoma, and 9e5as have all bro4ered a:ricultural deals %ith 2uba in recent years& 9ension bet%een 2uba and

the 3nited +tates flared in 6ecember 2

? %ith 2ubaAs arrest of Alan =ross , a 3+AC6 subcontractor %ho traveled to the 2uban authorities alle:ed =ross %as attemptin: to destabili)e the 2uban re:ime throu:h a 3+AC6(sponsored <democracy promotion< pro:ram, and he %as subseMuently sentenced to fifteen years in prison& 6espite initial optimism over ObamaAs election, 2uban politicians and citi)ens are less hopeful of a positive relationship developin: bet%een the t%o countries & -a_l and Fidel 2astro have both critici)ed the Obama administration& Cn a 2 ? speech, -a_l 2astro accused the 3nited +tates of <:ivin: ne% breath to open and undercover subversion a:ainst 2uba&< 7hat is 3&+& public opinion on the isolation of 2ubaH +ome 3&+& constituencies
country to deliver communications eMuipment and arran:e Cnternet access for its Je%ish community& %ould li4e to resume relations& 3&+& a:ricultural :roups already deal %ith 2uba, and other economic sectors %ant access to the 2uban mar4et& /any 2uban(Americans %ere an:ered by the 1ush administrationAs strict limits on travel and remittances, thou:h a small but vocal contin:ent of hard(line 2uban e5iles, many of them based in Florida, does not %ant to normali)e relations until the 2ommunist re:ime is :one& <7hen theyAre polled, the ma'ority of 2uban(Americans say that the embar:o has failed, and support liftin: the travel ban or loosenin: the embar:o or some steps alon: that continuum of liberali)ation and normali)ation,< says Julia G& +%ei:, 2F- director of Katin American studies& Gndin: the economic embar:o a:ainst 2uba %ould reMuire con:ressional approval& Opinions in 2on:ress are mi5ed# A :roup of influential -epublican la%ma4ers from Florida, includin: former representative Kincoln 6ia)(1alart, his brother /ario 6ia)(1alart, and Cleana -os(Kehtinen are stridently anti(2astro& +till, many favor improvin: relations %ith 2uba& Cn 2 ?, +en& -ichard Ku:ar (-(C0*, the top(ran4in: -epublican on the +enate Forei:n -elations 2ommittee, released a report

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callin: for 3&+& policy chan:es& ;e said# <7e must reco:ni)e the ineffectiveness of our current policy and deal %ith the 2uban re:ime in a %ay that enhances 3&+& interests< (P6F*& 7hat is the li4elihood that the 3nited +tates and 2uba %ill resume diplomatic relationsH =iven the ran:e of

issues dividin: the t%o countries, e5perts say a lon: process %ould precede resumption of diplomatic relations &
6aniel P& Gri4son of the Cnter(American 6ialo:ue says that thou:h <you could have the resumption of bilateral tal4s on issues related to counternarcotics or immi:ration, or a period of dgtente, you are probably not :oin: to see the full restoration of diplomatic relations < in the near term& /any recent policy reports have recommended that the 3nited +tates ta4e some unilateral steps to roll bac4 sanctions on 2uba& 9he removal of sanctions, ho%ever, %ould be 'ust one step in the process of normali)in: relations& +uch a process is sure to be controversial, as indicated by the heated con:ressional debate spurred in /arch 2 ? by attempts to ease travel and trade restrictions in a lar:e appropriations bill& <7hatever %e call it(( normali)ation, dgtente, rapproachement((it is clear that the policy process ris4s fallin: victim to the politics of the issue ,< says +%ei:& 7hat is the main obstacle in 3&+&(2uban relationsH A

fundamental incompatibility of political vie%s stands in the %ay of improvin: 3&+&(2uban relations, e5perts say& 7hile e5perts say the 3nited +tates %ants re:ime chan:e, <the most important ob'ective of the 2uban :overnment is to remain in po%er at all costs ,< says Feli5 /artin, an assistant professor at Florida
Cnternational 3niversityAs 2uban -esearch Cnstitute& Fidel 2astro has been an inspiration for Katin American leftists such as Qene)uelan President ;u:o 2hfve) and 1olivian President Gvo /orales, %ho have challen:ed 3&+& policy in the re:ion& 7hat are the issues preventin: normali)ation of

3&+&(2uba relationsH G5perts say these issues include# ;uman ri:hts violations& Cn /arch 2 ", the 2uban :overnment arrested seventy(five dissidents and 'ournalists, sentencin: them to prison terms of up to t%enty(ei:ht years on char:es of conspirin:
%ith the 3nited +tates to overthro% the state& 9he 2uban 2ommission for ;uman -i:hts and 0ational -econciliation, a ;avana(based non:overnmental :roup, reports that the :overnment has in recent years resorted to other tactics besides prison ((such as firin:s from

state 'obs and intimidation on the street(( to silence opposition fi:ures& A 2

D 30 ;uman -i:hts 2ommission vote F& =uantanamo

1ay& 2uba 2uban officials have since sei)ed on the 3&+& prison camp((%here hundreds of terror suspects have been detained((as a <symbol of solidarity< %ith the rest of the %orld a:ainst the 3 nited +tates& Althou:h Obama ordered =uantanamo to be closed by January 22, 2 ! , the facility remains open as of January 2 !", and many analysts say it is li4ely to stay in operation for an e5tended period& 2uban e5ile community& 9he 2uban(American community in southern Florida traditionally has heavily influenced 3&+& policy %ith 2uba& 1oth political parties fear alienatin: a stron: votin: bloc in an important s%in: state in presidential elections &
condemned 2ubaAs human ri:hts record, but the country %as elected to the ne% 30 ;uman -i:hts 2ouncil in 2 indicated after ?$!! that it %ould not ob'ect if the 3nited +tates brou:ht prisoners to =uantanamo 1ay& ;o%ever, e5perts such as +%ei: say

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>S2/at&n Amer&ca @elat&ons

Sno"%en t(umps relat&ons2 pro+es no 3r&n# A! 7215 (+no%den affair chills 3&+&(Katin American ties, 3+A 9oday, E(!D(2 !", http#$$%%%&usatoday&com$story$ne%s$%orld$2 !"$ E$!D$sno%den(affair(chills(us(latin(american( ties$2D!E B!$*$$16+ AmericaAs <bac4yard,< as +ecretary of +tate John >erry once referred to Katin America, is sproutin: an:ry %eeds as the scandal involvin: intelli:ence lea4er Gd%ard +no%den lays bare already thorny 3&+& relations %ith Katin America& 9a4in: the opportunity to snub their noses at the 3&+&, Qene)uela, 1olivia and 0icara:ua have already said theyAd be %illin: to :rant asylum for +no%den, %ho is %anted on espiona:e char:es in the 3nited +tates for revealin: the scope of 0ational +ecurity A:ency surveillance pro:rams that spy on Americans and forei:ners& Gcuador has said it %ould consider any reMuest from him& -elations bet%een the 3&+& and these countries %ere already testy, and the +no%den affair is further complicatin: the Obama administrationAs effort to improve ties %ith friendlier nations in the re:ion li4e /e5ico and 1ra)il& +no%den hasnAt been the only recent setbac4& Keaders in the re:ion harshly critici)ed the 3&+& earlier this %ee4 %hen a ne%spaper in 1ra)il, %hich %as privy to some documents released by +no%den, reported that a 3&+& spy pro:ram %as %idely tar:etin: data in emails and telephone calls across Katin America& 9hat revelation came 'ust days after an uproar in Katin America over the reroutin: of 1olivian President Gvo /oralesA plane over Gurope amid suspicions, later proven untrue, that +no%den %as aboard& And all this comes ri:ht after President 1arac4 Obama, Qice President Joe 1iden and >erry have all made recent tre4s to the re:ion to bolster 3&+& en:a:ement in Katin America& <7hat the +no%den affair has done to the reinvi:orated effort to re(en:a:e %ith Katin America is to dump a pail of cold %ater on it,< said 2arl /eacham, a former senior Katin America adviser on the +enate Forei:n -elations 2ommittee& <Ct %onAt stop trade deals, cooperation on ener:y, but itAs :oin: to be harder for the president to portray the ima:e that A7e are here to %or4 %ith you&A CtAs a step bac4&< 9he 3&+& has sou:ht to do%nplay the fallout from the disclosure of information about its intelli:ence activities& +tate 6epartment spo4es%oman Jen Psa4i ac4no%led:ed that the 3nited +tates does :ather forei:n intelli:ence 'ust li4e other nations& <C can tell you that %e have spo4en %ith 1ra)ilian officials re:ardin: these alle:ations,< she said this %ee4& <7e plan to continue our dialo:ue %ith the 1ra)ilians throu:h normal diplomatic channels, but those are conversations that, of course, %e %ould 4eep private&< Psa4i has also said that any country :rantin: asylum to +no%den %ould create <:rave difficulties in our bilateral relationship&< 7hile other nations may spy on their friends, the alle:ations have fueled anti(American sentiment already simmerin: in the re:ion& Qene)uela, 0icara:ua, 1olivia and Gcuador are led by populist leaders %ho have bal4ed at any dominance by the 3&+& in the Americas and pursued policies that often run counter to 7ashin:tonAs %ishes& Qene)uela refers to the 3nited +tates simply as <9he Gmpire&< <7hat theyAre sayin: is A+ee, the 3&+& hasnAt chan:ed& Ct doesnAt matter %ho is in the 7hite ;ouse, the 3&+& is the same& 9he 3&+& is the bi: imperial po%er &&& they are not treatin: us as eMuals& Koo4, they are even spyin: on us,A< said /eacham, %ho directs the Americas pro:ram at the 2enter for +trate:ic and Cnternational +tudies& 9he flap over the reroutin: of the 1olivian presidentAs plane prompted a special session 9uesday of the Or:ani)ation of American +tatesA permanent council& 1olivian Cnterior /inister 2arlos -omero delivered blisterin: remar4s about the incident, callin: it an <act of a::ression< conducted <at the behest of the 3nited +tates& 2ountries li4e Gcuador, %hich has co)ied up to 3&+& rivals Cran and 2hina, 'oined the verbal slu:fest a:ainst the 3&+& Gcuador has sheltered 7i4iKea4s founder Julian Assan:e in its embassy in Kondon for more than a year and has :iven mi5ed si:nals about offerin: +no%den asylum& Katin America %ants international standin: and chafes at any attempt by the 3nited +tates to do%nplay its stature, hence the ruffled feathers %hen >erry referred to the re:ion as <AmericaAs bac4yard&< Katin America is no% home to F million people& 9he 3&+& loo4s to the re:ion for oil and is heavily vested in bilateral trade a:reements& 9o:ether, /e5ico and 1ra)il are responsible for FD percent of Katin AmericaAs production, and some e5perts su::est that they are destined to 'ump into fourth and fifth place on the list of the %orldAs bi::est economies, behind the 3&+&, Cndia and 2hina& Kast year alone, trade bet%een the 3&+& and /e5ico totaled nearly [D billion, ma4in: it the 3nited +tatesA second(lar:est tradin: partner and /e5ico could eventually overta4e 2anada for the 0o& ! spot& 9he +no%den affair is not li4ely to unravel these stron: 3&+& connections to the re:ion, but it is a roadbloc4 to efforts to improve cooperation, said /ichael +hifter, president of the Cnter(American 6ialo:ue, a 7ashin:ton(based policy forum on 7estern ;emisphere affairs& <C donAt thin4 itAs :oin: to paraly)e relations,< +hifter said& <1ut C thin4 itAs a setbac4 overall J even %ith countries that have been friendly&< Obama :ot off to a slo% start %ith Katin America& 9he president spent little time on the re:ion durin: his first term and uttered fe%, if any, %ords about the area durin: his re(election campai:n,

Nuclear War MICHIGAN 7WS 2013 ?0/221 thou:h he too4 more than E percent of the ;ispanic vote in %innin: a second term& Cn /ay, he %ent south to /e5ico and also traveled to 2osta -ica to meet %ith 2entral American leaders& Passin: immi:ration reform %ould remove a ma'or irritant in 3&+&(/e5ico relations and could prevent the 3&+& from becomin: more isolated in the re:ion, but the 3&+& %as facin: problems in the area before the +no%den affair& Cn 1olivia, /orales on /ay ! acted on a lon:(time threat and e5pelled the 3&+& A:ency for Cnternational 6evelopment, sayin: it %as tryin: to undermine the :overnment J alle:ations the +tate 6epartment said %ere baseless& /orales said 7ashin:ton <still has a mentality of domination and submission< in the re:ion, and he also haran:ued >erry for offendin: the re:ion %hen, in con:ressional testimony in April, he said the <7estern ;emisphere is our bac4yard&< 2uba J a possible transit stop for +no%den if he is :ranted asylum in a Katin American country J has a history of conflict %ith the 3nited +tates& Fidel 2astroAs brother -aul, %ho no% leads the :overnment, has recently e5plored ne% diplomatic entrees %ith 7ashin:ton& At the same time, he earlier this year assumed the rotatin: presidency of the 2ommunity of Katin American and 2aribbean +tates in %hat %as a demonstration of re:ional unity a:ainst 3&+& efforts to isolate the communist :overnment throu:h a D ( year(old economic embar:o& Cn 1ra)il, %hich %ields the most influence in Katin America, former President Kui) Cnacio Kula da +ilva lent support to the Cranian :overnment and also bac4ed Qene)uelaAs late president ;u:o 2have), %ho ranted a:ainst 3&+&(style capitalism and formed alliances %ith -ussia, 2hina and Cran& 9he ne% president of 1ra)il, 6ilma -ousseff, appears more moderate& 1iden visited 1ra)il in /ay, sayin: stron:er trade ties and closer cooperation in education, science and other fields should usher in a ne% era of 3&+&(1ra)il relations& 6urin: his visit, 1iden announced that Obama %as hostin: -ousseff at the first official state dinner of his second term& 9he October dinner is a si:n of respect and 1ra)ilian officials say the spyin: alle:ations %onAt taint it, yet -ousseff herself has said that any such data collection infrin:ed on the nationAs soverei:nty and that 1ra)il %ould raise the issue at the 3nited 0ations& 3&+& relations %ith Qene)uela have been a lot thornier& 7hile 0icolas /aduro, appears to be more pra:matic than his predecessor, he has loudly voiced his o%n anti( American rhetoric since ta4in: office J even alle:in: that the 3&+& had a hand in 2have)A death from cancer& /aduro e5pelled t%o 3&+& Air Force attaches from 2aracas, accusin: them of tryin: to foment instability& 9he Obama administration responded by e5pellin: t%o Qene)uelan diplomats from 7ashin:ton&

Nuclear War ?1/221

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>S2Me1&co @elat&ons
@elat&ons )ro"&n) no" an% sp&ll&n) o+er Woo% 20132 6irector, /e5ico Cnstitute, 7oodro% 7ilson Cnternational 2enter for +cholars (6uncan, +G23-C9P 2OOPG-A9CO0 C0 /GYC2O#
GYA/C0C0= 9;G 0GY9 +9GP+ C0 9;G 3&+&( /GYC2O +G23-C9P -GKA9CO0+;CP, 3&+& +enate 2ommittee on Forei:n -elations, June !B, 2 !", http#$$%%%&%ilsoncenter&or:$sites$default$files$senateLtestimonyLsecurityLcooperation&pdf *$$+,-

Kastly, C have been as4ed to comment on t(e recent +&s&t 3' !res&%ent .3ama to Me1&coF to meet "&t( !res&%ent !eGa N&etoL ,(ere can 3e l&ttle %ou3t t(at t(e +&s&t "as a (u)e successF 3ot( &n terms of 3u&l%&n) a relat&ons(&p "&t( t(e Me1&can pres&%ent on a personal le+elF an% &n con+&nc&n) t(e Me1&can pu3l&c t(at t(e relat&ons(&p "&t( t(e >n&te% States &s a pos&t&+e oneL Cn particular, the speech :iven by the President at the 0ational Anthropolo:ical /useum received very favorable press and attention& .n a more su3stant&+e le+elF t(e a)reements 3et"een t(e t"o pres&%ents on e%ucat&on an% t(e econom' (a+e &n:ecte% ne" +&)or &nto 3&lateral affa&rs , helped :reatly by the optimism over the prospects for immi:ration reform here in 7ashin:ton L Alrea%' "e are see&n) 3enef&ts &n terms of sp&ll o+er &nto ot(er areas the upcomin: Cnter(Parliamentary =roup meetin:s in 7ashin:ton in the Fall, as %ell as the bilateral tal4s on ener:y scheduled for Octo3erF (a+e t(e potent&al to furt(er re+&tal&9e t(e relat&ons(&pL >LSL Me1&co relat&ons &ncreas&n) no" #e' to t(e future 3 #e' po&nts of colla3orat&on Woo% 20132 6irector, /e5ico Cnstitute, 7oodro% 7ilson Cnternational 2enter for +cholars (6uncan, +G23-C9P 2OOPG-A9CO0 C0 /GYC2O#
GYA/C0C0= 9;G 0GY9 +9GP+ C0 9;G 3&+&( /GYC2O +G23-C9P -GKA9CO0+;CP, 3&+& +enate 2ommittee on Forei:n -elations, June !B, 2 !", http#$$%%%&%ilsoncenter&or:$sites$default$files$senateLtestimonyLsecurityLcooperation&pdf *$$+,;o%ever, "e can po&nt to a num3er of areas "(ere "e can e1pect fru&tful

colla3orat&on & A&rstF &n t(e area of pre+ent&on an% +&olence re%uct&onF t(ere &s ample room for cont&nue% cooperat&onF s&m&lar to t(at "(&c( too# place un%er !&llar I< of t(e Mer&%a In&t&at&+eL 9he %or4 of re3u&l%&n) commun&t&esF of &n+est&n) &n soc&al pro)ramsF of en)a)&n) "&t( c&+&l soc&et' &n cr&me prevention and in the 'ustice system has attained si:nificant success in places such as 1a'a 2alifornia and the e5perience of %or4in: %ith 3+ a:encies there provides a model for future efforts& Secon%F t(ere &s l&#el' to 3e a recept&+e att&tu%e from t(e Me1&can aut(or&t&es "&t( re)ar%s to t(e &ssue of pol&c&n) stan%ar%sL As the process of unifyin: police commands across communities in the states of /e5ico continues, and as police professionali)ation remains a 4ey topicF t(ere &s muc( t(at t(e >S (as to offerL,(&r%F t(e creat&on of t(e )en%armer&e "&ll l&#el' &n+ol+e t(e secon%ment or permanent transfer of m&l&tar' personnel &nto t(e ne" forceL In or%er to a+o&% t(e p&tfalls of (a+&n) troops a%opt a pol&c&n) funct&onF t(ere "&ll 3e a nee% to tra&n t(ese &n%&+&%uals &n pol&c&n)F cr&m&nal :ust&ce an% &n+est&)at&on tec(n&8ues & A:ain, t(e >S (as s&)n&f&cant an% &mportant e1per&ence &n t(&s areaL$e'on% t(ese areas, counter2 mone' laun%er&n) act&ons an% &ntell&)ence )at(er&n) an% s(ar&n) cont&nue to pro+&%e potent&al areas for colla3orat&on& /e5ico8s ne% anti(money(launderin: la%s reMuire immediate implementation over the past D years, a mere B" individuals %ere convicted of money launderin: in /e5ico, %hile %e 4no% that more than [! billion is laundered a year %ithin the country& ,(e mo+ement of mone' 3ac# from t(e >n&te% States &s an &ssue t(at nee%s to 3e a%%resse% an% (&)( le+el tal#s are nee%e% on t(at &ssueL On intelli:ence sharin: C perceive a more difficult road ahead& 9rust issues and the
absence of mutual understandin:, combined %ith the centrali)ation of po%er over security policy in the Cnterior /inistry, mean that the pro:ress of the past D years is by no means :uaranteed& At this point in t&me &t &s +&tal t(at "e a%opt a lon)2term perspect&+eF t(at

pat&ence an% )oo% :u%)ment pre+a&lsF an% t(at "e %o not 3ur%en t(e ne" relat&ons(&p "&t( t(e e1pectat&ons of t(e ol%L @elat&ons(&p (&)( .3ama +&s&t pro+es Slac# 13 ( 6eputy 6irector of 6i:ital 2ontent for the Office of 6i:ital +trate:y (/e:an +lac4, President Obama -eaffirms the 3nited +tates(/e5ico
-elationship, /ay ", 2 !" http#$$%%%&%hitehouse&:ov$blo:$2 !"$ D$ "$president(obama(reaffirms(united(states(me5ico(relationship*$$+,On the first day of his trip to /e5ico and 2osta -ica, President .3ama %as in /e5ico 2ity for meetin:s an% a 'oint press conference %ith President !eGa

N&etoL 9he t%o leaders, %ho first met in 7ashin:ton, 62 last 0ovember, discussed the broad ran:e of issues that bind our an% rene"e% t(e&r comm&tment to a stron) relat&ons(&p 3et"een t(e >n&te% States an% Me1&coL President 1arac4 Obama participates in a press conference %ith President GnriMue Peca 0ieto of /e5ico at the Palacio 0acional, /e5ico 2ity, /e5ico, /ay 2, 2 !"& (Official 7hite ;ouse Photo by Pete +ou)a* W(&le "or#&n)
nations and affect the daily lives of citi)ens in both countries,

Nuclear War MICHIGAN 7WS 2013 ?2/221 to)et(er to confront ur)ent c(allen)es l&#e secur&t'F P"e can7t lose s&)(t of t(e lar)er relat&ons(&p 3et"een our peoples, includin: the promise of /e5ico8s economic pro:ress, President .3amasa&%L PI 3el&e+e "e7+e )ot a (&stor&c opportun&t' to foster e+en more cooperat&onF more tra%eF more :o3s on 3ot( s&%es of t(e 3or%erF and that8s the focus of my visit& ,(e >n&te% States an% Me1&co (a+e one of t(e lar)est econom&c relat&ons(&ps &n t(e "orl%L .ur annual tra%e (as no" surpasse% Q500 3&ll&on (( more than [! billion every day& We are 'our lar)est customerF 3u'&n) t(e +ast ma:or&t' of Me1&can e1portsLMe1&co &s t(e secon% lar)est mar#et for >LSL e1ports & +o every day, our companies and our %or4ers (J %ith their inte:rated supply chains J( are buildin: products to:ether& And t(&s &s t(e stron) foun%at&on t(at "e can 3u&l% onL
President 1arac4 Obama delivers remar4s at the Anthropolo:y /useum in /e5ico 2ity, /e5ico, /ay ", 2 !"& (Official 7hite ;ouse Photo by Ka%rence Jac4son* 1efore continuin: on to 2osta -ica, President Obama spo4e to the people of /e5ico at the 0ational Anthropolo:y /usuem about the <impressive pro:ress of today8s /e5ico,< %hich includes the countryAs deepin:in: democracy and stren:thenin: economy& And because of all the dynamic pro:ress thatAs ta4in: place here in /e5ico, /e5ico is also ta4in: its ri:htful place in the %orld, on the %orld sta:e& /e5ico is standin: up for democracy not 'ust here in /e5ico but throu:hout the hemisphere& /e5ico is sharin: e5pertise %ith nei:hbors across the Americas& 7hen they face earthMua4es or threats to their citi)ens, or :o to the polls to cast their votes, Me1&co &s t(ere, helpin: its nei:hbors& /e5ico has 'oined the ran4s of the %orld8s

ust as Me1&co &s 3e&n) transforme%F so are t(e t&es 3et"een our t"o countr&esF < President Obama said& As President, C8ve been :uided by a basic proposition (( &n t(&s relat&ons(&p t(ere7s no sen&or partner or :un&or partnerR "e are t"o e8ual partnersF t"o so+ere&)n nat&onsL We must "or# to)et(er &n mutual &nterest an% mutual respectL And if %e do that both
lar:est economies& Ct became the first Katin American nation to host the =2 & < /e5ico and the 3nited +tates %ill prosper&

Common &nterests mean >S2Me1&can relat&ons are re3oun%&n) .7Ne&l 13 ( senior fello% for Katin America +tudies at the 2ouncil on Forei:n -elations, a nonpartisan forei:n(policy thin4 tan4 and membership
or:ani)ation (+hannon >&, Forei:n Affairs, /e5ico /a4es Ct, April 2 !", http#$$%%%&forei:naffairs&com$articles$!"BB!B$shannon(4(oneil$me5ico( ma4es(it*$$+,Four tons of cocaine confiscated by 3&+& authorities off the 2alifornia coastR "D bodies dumped by the side of a busy Qeracru) hi:h%ay in broad dayli:htR an attac4 by :unmen on a birthday party in 2iudad Jufre) 4illin: !@, many of them teena:ers# tra:edies li4e these, all of %hich occurred over the past t%o years and %ere e5tensively covered by the media, are common in /e5ico today& Prominent /e5ican ne%s or:ani)ations and analysts have estimated that durin: the si5(year term of /e5icoAs last president, Felipe 2alderan, over F , people %ere 4illed in dru:(related violence, and some researchers have put the number at tens of thousands more& /e5icoAs crime rates are some of the %orst in the 7estern ;emisphere & Accordin: to Katinobarametro, an annual re:ion%ide public opinion poll, over @ percent of /e5icans say that they or a family member has been the victim of a crime at some point in the last year&;idden behind the troublin: headlines, ho%ever, is another, more hopeful /e5ico ((

one under:oin: rapid and %idespread social, political, and economic transformation& Pes, /e5ico continues to stru::le %ith :rave security threats, but it is also fosterin: a :lobally competitive mar4etplace, a :ro%in: middle class, and an increasin:ly influential pro(democracy voter base& Cn addition, /e5icoAs ties %ith the 3nited +tates are chan:in:& 2ommon interests in ener:y, manufacturin:, and security, as %ell as an overlappin: community formed by millions of binational families, have made /e5icoAs path for%ard increasin:ly important to its northern nei:hbor& For most of the past century, 3&+&(/e5ican relations %ere conducted at armAs len:th&
9hat be:an to chan:e, ho%ever, in the !?B s and, even more, after the !??@ 0orth American Free 9rade A:reement (0AF9A* spurred :reater bilateral economic en:a:ement and cooperation& /e5icoAs democratic transition has further eased the %ariness of some s4eptics in 7ashin:ton& +till, the 3&+&( /e5ican relationship is far from perfect& 0e% bilateral policies are reMuired, especially to facilitate the movement of people and :oods across the 3&+&( /e5ican border& /ore important, the 3nited +tates needs to start seein: /e5ico as a partner instead of a problem&

Me1&can )o+ernment &s sta3le no r&s# of an &mpact <al%e9F 04 %riter for Gl Paso (6iana ,Gl Paso 9imes, G5perts say :overnment stable despite mountin: border violence,Febuary 2, 2
http#$$%%%&elpasotimes&com$ne%s$ciL!!F FBFF*$$+,GK PA+O (( A chorus of current and former 3&+&

?,

officials are soundin: alarms about /e5ico, %arnin: the %ar()one conditions in cities li4e Jufre) could lead to the :overnmentAs do%nfall& 9hese voices include the Joint Forces 2ommand, e5(
2CA 6irector /ichael ;ayden, former ;omeland +ecurity chief /ichael 2hertoff, as %ell as e5(3&+& dru: c)ar 1arry /c2affrey& Kast 9uesday, 0avy Adm& /i4e /ullen, chairman of the Joint 2hiefs of +taff, also said he %as concerned about escalatin: border violence& Garly in January, an obscure or:ani)ation (( the /ovimientoArmado del 0orte (0orthern Armed /ovement* (( sent an alarmin: communiMue on the Cnternet callin: on the /e5ican people to revolt a:ainst the :overnment&1ut, in a letter to the Gl Paso 9imes, Arturo +aru4han, /e5icoAs ambassador to

the 3nited +tates in 7ashin:ton, denies his country is on the ver:e of collapse& <9he violence unleashed by traffic4in: or:ani)ations in response to President (Felipe* 2alderanAs effort to shut them do%n cannot be denied,<+aru4han said& <Cf one considers the criteria that could lead to a Asudden collapseA (( loss of territorial control, inability to provide public
services, re fu:ees and internally displaced people, criminali)ation of the state, sharp economic decline and incapacity to interact as a full member of the

Nuclear War ?3/221

MICHIGAN 7WS 2013

international community (( it is obvious that /e5ico simply does not fit the pattern &< 1efore ;aydenAs recent retirement from the 2CA, he said /e5ico could ran4 alon:side Advertisement Cran as a security challen:e for President 1arac4 Obama, maybe even a :reater problem than CraM, %hile the Joint Forces 2ommandAs <JOG 2 B< said /e5ico and Pa4istanAs :overnments %ere in dan:er of collapse& Professor Josiah ;eyman, a /e5ico e5pert at the 3niversity of 9e5as at Gl Paso, said itAs unli4ely /e5icoAs :overnability has reached such a crisis sta:e&

<Part of the alarm %as spar4ed by the fact the dru: violence is ta4in: place ri:ht ne5t door to our border, in Jufre),< ;eyman said& <9here are thin:s in /e5ico that are very ne:ative, but others that are very positive, too &
For e5ample, it is mana:in: its economy very %ell, it has stabili)ed the price of oil, and itAs a real functionin: democracy& <1ut, it has not spread the %ealth, and many decades have passed %hile the purchasin: po%er of the /e5ican people has fallen belo% %hat it %as in !?B2

Nuclear War ?6/221

MICHIGAN 7WS 2013

>S2<ene9uela @elat&ons
!o"er7s appo&ntment tan#s >S <ene9uela relat&ons @,2 7221, ( -ussian television company (-ussia 9oday, Qene)uela ends rapprochement tal4s %ith 7ashin:ton over 3+ ^meddlin:8, -9, E(2!(2 !", http#$$rt&com$ne%s$vene)uela(ends(dialo:ue(us(relations("D2$*$$16+ 2aracas brou:ht tal4s %ith the 3+ to an abrupt end over statements made by +amantha Po%er, the nominee for 30 ambassador& Qene)uela blasted 7ashin:ton for bac4in: Po%er8s meddlin: a:enda after she critici)ed human ri:hts in the country& 9he Qene)uelan Forei:n /inistry released a statement on Friday announcin: an end to rapprochement ne:otiations bet%een 7ashin:ton and 2aracas in =uatemala& 9he 1olivarian -epublican of Qene)uela considers the diplomatic processes initiated in =uatemala over, the Forei:n /inistry said& 9hey too4 issue %ith the statements of the 3+ candidate for ambassador to the 30, +amantha Po%er, %ho e5pressed concern over 2aracas8 mana:ement of human ri:ht issues on 7ednesday before the 3+ +enate Forei:n -elations 2ommittee& +he added that if she %ere elected, she %ould fi:ht a:ainst repression in 2uba and in Qene)uela& Qene)uela responded %ith ire, harshly contestin: any attempt by the 3+ to interfere in its internal policies& <Po%er says sheAll fi:ht repression in Qene)uelaH 7hat repressionH 9here is repression in the 3nited +tates, %here they 4ill African(Americans %ith impunity, and %here they hunt the youn:ster Gd%ard +no%den 'ust for tellin: the truth,< said Qene)uelan President 0icolas /aduro follo%in: Po%erAs comments& 9he 1olivarian -epublic of Qene)uela %ill never accept meddlin: in its internal affairs& 7e re'ect the fact that a nominee for the post of 30 ambassador has interference in Qene)uela on her a:enda, said Glias Jaua, the Qene)uelan minister of forei:n affairs& 9he statement %ent on to say that 2aracas %ished to build :ood relations %ith the 3+ based on mutual respect for soverei:nty and self(determination& ;o%ever, Po%er8s statements contradict the stance outlined by 3+ Forei:n /inister John >erry& \Qene)uela] has fully demonstrated that it has a solid base in its constitution that :uarantees the preservation of the practice and respect for ;uman -i:hts, said Jaua& Furthermore, he said the %orld continually e5presses concern about 3+ ri:hts abuses, referencin: 7ashin:ton8s failure to close =uantanamo and the practice of drone attac4s& Follo%in: Po%er8s %ords on 7ednesday, 2aracas sent a messa:e to 7ashin:ton, voicin: Qene)uela8s condemnation of her statements& 9he +tate 6epartment responded by e5pressin: their support for Po%er8s candidacy for 30 ambassador& +amantha Po%er is an outstandin: candidate and incredibly competent& 7e support her completely, said spo4es%oman for the +tate 6epartment, /arie ;arf& On the roc4s 3+( Qene)uelan relations have been under strain since 2 ! %hen both countries %ithdre% their respective ambassadors& /oreover, tensions have been mountin: recently over the case of 0+A %histleblo%er Gd%ard +no%den, %hom Qene)uela has offered political asylum& 9he 3+ is demandin: his e5tradition over the classified cables he released that ble% the lid on 7ashin:ton8s covert :lobal surveillance pro:rams& On Friday follo%in: 2aracas8 decision to :rant asylum to +no%den, 3+ Forei:n /inister John >erry ran: his Qene)uelan counterpart and threatened conseMuences should +no%den attempt to travel to Qene)uela, reported +panish A12 media outlet, citin: a source familiar %ith the conversation&

@elat&ons are lo" no" Meac(am *221 ( 6irector of the 2+C+ Americas Pro:ram, %or4ed as +enate Forei:n -elations 2ommittee (2arl, 9he >erry(Jaua /eetin:# -esettin: 3&+&(Qene)uela -elationsH, 2enter for +trate:ic and Cnternational +tudies, F(2!(2 !" http#$$csis&or:$publication$4erry('aua(meetin:(resettin:(us(vene)uela(relations*$$16+ ,!# 7here do 3&+&(Qene)uelan relations standH A!# 6espite many fits and starts to advance relations in recent years, :enuine improvements in the relationship have been hard to come by& Qarious 3&+& :overnment a:encies hold sanctions a:ainst elements of the Qene)uelan :overnment, includin: on state oil company Petraleos de Qene)uela (P6Q+A* for tradin: %ith CranR on a former Cran(Qene)uela 1an4 (CQ1* for handlin: money transfers %ith a 2hinese ban4 on behalf of the G5port 6evelopment 1an4 of Cran (G61C*R and on the state( o%ned Qene)uelan /ilitary Cndustry 2ompany after it traded %ith Cran, 0orth >orea, and +yria& 9he 3&+& 6epartment of the 9reasury8s Office of Forei:n Assets 2ontrol (OFA2*, over the past five years, has also desi:nated more than half a do)en Qene)uelan :overnment officials for actin: for, or on behalf of, the -evolutionary Armed Forces of 2olombia (FA-2*, desi:nated a narco(terrorist or:ani)ation by the 3&+& a:ency& And, let8s not for:et that the reason there are no ambassadors in 2aracas or 6&2& %as 2hfve)8s refusal in 2 ! to accept Obama8s nominee for the post in Qene)uela& +imilarly, Qene)uela severed ties %ith the 6ru:

Nuclear War MICHIGAN 7WS 2013 ?5/221 Gnforcement A:ency (6GA* in 2 D& On the day 2hfve)8s death %as announced, /aduro, as careta4er, e5pelled t%o 3&+& air force attachgs based in the 2aracas embassy, accusin: them of espiona:e& 9he 3nited +tates retaliated in 4ind& 9he /aduro :overnment also arrested 3&+& filmma4er 9im 9racy for alle:edly insti:atin: postelection violence, thou:h many pointed out he %as simply in Qene)uela to film a documentary on politics in the country& (9racy %as released %ithout further e5planation the same mornin: >erry and Jaua met&* +u::estions by members of the Qene)uelan :overnment that the 3nited +tates may have :iven 2hfve) the cancer that caused his death have certainly not helped relations either, neither have repeated accusations tar:eted at former officials and 3&+& military and intelli:ence involvement in countless evidence(free plots& =iven the comple5 reality of the bilateral relationship, it loo4s li4e both sides have a lon: road ahead of them if they see4 to enact positive chan:es& <ene9uela %oesn7t "ant )oo% relat&ons Meac(am *221 ( 6irector of the 2+C+ Americas Pro:ram, %or4ed as +enate Forei:n -elations 2ommittee (2arl, 9he >erry(Jaua /eetin:# -esettin: 3&+&(Qene)uela -elationsH, 2enter for +trate:ic and Cnternational +tudies, F(2!(2 !" http#$$csis&or:$publication$4erry('aua(meetin:(resettin:(us(vene)uela(relations*$$16+ ,2# 6oes the Qene)uelan :overnment %ant :ood relationsH A2# 6espite recent discussions %ith the 3nited +tates, it doesn8t seem to be the case& Garlier this year, the Qene)uelan :overnment suspended tal4s bet%een the 3&+& +tate 6epartment and Qene)uelan Forei:n /inistry that had be:un in late 2 !2, citin: alle:ed 3&+& meddlin: in Qene)uela8s April election& 9he /aduro :overnment has also lar:ely follo%ed the 2hfve) playboo4, constantly accusin: the 3nited +tates of assassination plots, spyin:, and economic and political sabota:e& 7hile the >erry(Jaua meetin: may have made for nice headlines, it8s difficult to ima:ine that the Qene)uelan :overnment %ill not play the anti(3&+& card a:ain, if needed& 9his %ee4, 2ali5to Orte:aJappointed to handle matters %ith the 3nited +tatesJ%ill meet %ith Assistant +ecretary of +tate for 7estern ;emisphere Affairs -oberta Jacobson to continue discussions and establish a ne% set of concrete :oals to :uide the relationship for%ard& 9hese :ood(faith :estures made by the Qene)uelan :overnment are neither ne% nor unheard of& 6espite recent efforts, 3&+& policyma4ers should temper any positive e5pectations, as a core basis of 2havismo is its anti(3&+& ideolo:y& Ct8s of course difficult to improve relations %ith a :overnment that consistently defines itself as vehemently a:ainst your forei:n policy a:enda& 9his su::ests that Qene)uela may be loo4in: to reestablish a purely economic relationshipJone that %ill eliminate 3&+& sanctions& +till, even if certain positive steps are ta4en, history su::ests that the Qene)uelan :overnment could Muic4ly scuttle pro:ress made, li4ely %ith the :oal of /aduro shorin: up support %ithin his o%n ran4s&

>S <ene9uelan relat&ons are reco+er&n) o&l &nterests o+err&%e %&sputes &n t(e s8uo Met9#er *217, contributor to Cnter Press +ervice (Jared, Analysts +ay Oil 2ould ;elp /end 3&+&(Qene)uela -elations, Cnternational Press +ervice, F(!E(2 !", http#$$%%%&ipsne%s&net$2 !"$ F$analysts(say(oil(could( help(mend(u(s(vene)uela(relations$*$$16+ A shift in 3&+& forei:n policy to%ards Qene)uela may be pendin: as a bilateral rapprochement suddenly appears more possible than it has in years& On the sidelines of tal4s held earlier this month in =uatemala by the Or:anisation of American +tates (OA+*, 3&+& +ecretary of +tate John >erry met %ith Qene)uelan Forei:n /inister Glias Jaua, %ith >erry8s subseMuent statements indicatin: that relations could be headin: in a friendlier direction& 7e a:reed today both of us, Qene)uela and the 3nited +tates that %e %ould li4e to see our countries find a ne% %ay for%ard, establish a more constructive and positive relationship and find the %ays to do that, >erry said follo%in: the meetin: %ith Jaua, %hich %as reportedly reMuested by the Qene)uelans& 9he meetin: happened on the heels of the release of 9imothy 9racy, a 3&+& filmma4er %hom Qene)uela had been holdin: on accusations of espiona:e& ;is release %as interpreted by many as an olive branch bein: offered by the ne% Qene)uelan :overnment of 0icholas /aduro, %hose presidency 7ashin:ton still has not formally reco:nised& Only months a:o, before the death of Qene)uela8s lon:(time socialist leader ;u:o 2have), any normalisation of relations bet%een Qene)uela and the 3nited +tates seemed hi:hly unli4ely& Cn 2 2, 2have) %as briefly removed from po%er by a military coup d8gtat that the 3&+& 2entral Cntelli:ence A:ency

Nuclear War MICHIGAN 7WS 2013 ?*/221 (2CA* had 4no%n %as imminent& 2have) immediately accused the 3nited +tates of havin: played a part in the event& After his suspicions %ere confirmed partly valid, his rhetoric :re% more scathin:& Cn 2 F, he famously told the 3nited 0ations =eneral Assembly that then(3&+& President =eor:e 7& 1ush %as the devil himself& Follo%in: 2have)8s death from cancer in /arch, ho%ever, his hand(pic4ed successor, /aduro, the former vice( president, has not been as vitriolic in his posturin: vis(d(vis the 3nited +tates& Accordin: to /ichael +hifter, president of the Cnter(American 6ialo:ue, a 7ashin:ton(based thin4 tan4, /aduro has offered conflictin: si:nals& /aduro has so far shifted in his position to%ard the 3&+& bet%een a moderate approach and a more hard(line one, +hifter told CP+& 9he ne% president8s %afflin: may be a reflection of his tenuous :rip on po%er& 1y many accounts, /aduro lac4s the political pro%ess and rabble(rousin: charm of 2have), %ho en'oyed military bac4in: as %ell as fervent support from the lo%er classes& Cn addition to a stron: anti(2havista opposition that openly challen:es the le:itimacy of his narro%ly %on election, /aduro has had to deal %ith a split %ithin 2have)8s o%n former political base& +hifter pointed out that amon: the military, %hich %as once a source of si:nificant stren:th for 2have), more support is :iven to 6iosdado 2abello, currently head of Qene)uela8s parliament and %hose supporters believe he %as the ri:htful heir to the presidency& /aduro8s le:itimacy stems lar:ely from his perceived ideolo:ical fidelity, the reason for his selection by 2have) to lead in the first place& +hifter said this leads him to emulate his predecessor and ma4es rapprochement %ith the 3nited +tates less probable& +till, ideolo:ical concerns may not ultimately decide the issue& Qene)uela has inherited from 2have) an economy in difficult straits, %hich continues to suffer from notorious shorta:es and hi:h inflation& Oil economy Over half of Qene)uela8s federal bud:et revenues come from its oil industry, %hich also accounts for ?D percent of the country8s e5ports& Gstimated at EE billion barrels, its proven reserves of blac4 :old are the lar:est of any nation in the %orld& 6espite a troubled political relationship, its principal customer is the 3nited +tates, %hich imports nearly a million barrels a day from Qene)uela& Qene)uela8s oil industry has been officially nationalised since the !?E s, and, as president, 2have) further ti:htened :overnment control over its production& ;is :overnment too4 a :reater chun4 of revenues and imposed Muotas that ensured a certain percenta:e %ould al%ays :o directly to%ards aidin: Qene)uelans via social spendin: and fuel subsidies& 7hile these measures may be popular %ith Qene)uelans, %ho pay the lo%est price for :asoline in the %orld, critics ar:ue such policies hampered :ro%th and led to mismana:ement of Petroleos de Qene)uela, +&A& (PdQ+A*, the main state(run oil company& 9he same critics also point to increasin: debt levels, slo%do%ns in productions and accidents stemmin: from faulty infrastructure& Cn order to boost production, PdQ+A a:reed in /ay to accept a number of ma'or loans& 9his includes one from 2hevron, one of the lar:est 3&+& oil companies, %hich %ill %or4 %ith Qene)uelans to develop ne% e5traction sites& 9he oil sector is in deep trouble in Qene)uela production is do%n and the economic situation is deterioratin:, e5plained +hifter& 9hey 4no% they need forei:n investment to increase production, and this is in part %hat has motivated /aduro to reach out& Cf its economy continues to falter, Qene)uela may be further tempted to embrace the 3nited +tates, %hich has the lar:est, most sophisticated fossil fuel industry in the %orld& >erry8s recent %ords su::est that the administration of President 1arac4 Obama %ould be %aitin: %ith open arms& Qene)uela cannot confront its economic crisis and the 3nited +tates at the same time, 6iana Qilliers 0e:roponte, a senior fello% at the 1roo4in:s Cnstitute, a 7ashin:ton thin4 tan4, told CP+, and %e are a pra:matic country %hich %ill deal %ith /aduro if it is in our interests& Cndeed, 0e:roponte said she %as optimistic about the possibility of rapprochement bet%een the t%o countries %ithin the ne5t si5 months& +he notes a troi4a of issues on %hich the 3nited +tates is loo4in: for Qene)uelan cooperation# counter(terrorism, counter(narcotics and assistance in riddin: 2olombia of its FA-2 rebels&

>S2<ene9uelan relat&ons are &mpro+&n) Meac(am *221 ( 6irector of the 2+C+ Americas Pro:ram, %or4ed as +enate Forei:n -elations 2ommittee (2arl, 9he >erry(Jaua /eetin:# -esettin: 3&+&(Qene)uela -elationsH, 2enter for +trate:ic and Cnternational +tudies, F(2!(2 !" http#$$csis&or:$publication$4erry('aua(meetin:(resettin:(us(vene)uela(relations*$$16+ On June D, +ecretary of +tate John >erry raised eyebro%s %hen he met %ith his Qene)uelan counterpart, Forei:n /inister Glhas Jaua& 1oth %ere in =uatemala to attend the recent =eneral Assembly of the Or:ani)ation of American +tates (OA+*& 9he pair8s meetin: %as the first hi:h(level public meetin: bet%een the t%o countries since 3&+& president 1arac4 Obama and former Qene)uelan president ;u:o 2hfve) shoo4 hands and had a brief e5chan:e at the fifth +ummit of the Americas in 2 ?& 9he Qene)uelan :overnment reMuested

Nuclear War MICHIGAN 7WS 2013 ?7/221 the meetin:, %hich lasted @ minutes and %as follo%ed by the announcement that the :overnments %ould embar4 on hi:h(level tal4s aimed at improvin: bilateral relations& Of particular note, both sides e5pressed hope that the reciprocal appointment of ambassadors %ould ta4e place in short orderR 2hfve) e5pelled the 3&+& ambassador in 2 B and the 3nited +tates retaliated in 4ind& All of this is complicated by the outcome of the Qene)uelan presidential election on April !@& 9he official results have named 0icolfs /aduro the %inner, havin: beaten opposition leader ;enriMue 2apriles by a slim !&D percenta:e pointsJthou:h the opposition continues to contest both the results and the audit& 7hile much of the re:ion moved Muic4ly to reco:ni)e /aduro as the victor, the 3nited +tates has yet to formally reco:ni)e the outcome and is %aitin: for the results of an audit that is satisfactory to all parties& +o, :iven these developments, should the 3nited +tates be resettin: its relationship %ith Qene)uelaH <ene9uela an% t(e >S are pursu&n) 3&lateral relat&ons MA//-,,2.>,,@IM *2* ( Australian (-yan, Qene)uela(3&+& -elations /ay Cmprove, Follo%in: /eetin: of Forei:n /inisters, Qene)uela Analysis, F(F(2 !", http#$$vene)uelanalysis&com$ne%s$?FE *$$16+ Qene)uelan forei:n minister Glias Jaua and 3nited +tates +ecretary of +tate John >erry pled:ed to improve bilateral relations durin: a meetin: on 7ednesday, follo%in: the release of a 3&+& citi)en detained in Qene)uela& Jaua described the meetin: as proactive, and stated that the discussion %ith >erry mar4s the be:innin: of a :ood respectful relationship& 7e a:reed today J both of us, Qene)uela and the 3nited +tates J that %e %ould li4e to see our countries find a ne% %ay for%ard, establish a more constructive and positive relationship and find the %ays to do that, >erry said follo%in: the meetin:, accordin: to the Associated Press& >erry stated that durin: the @ (minute discussion in Anti:ua, =uatemala, the t%o representatives a:reed to %or4 to%ards establishin: continuin: dialo:ue at a hi:h(level bet%een the +tate 6epartment and the forei:n ministry, and e5pressed hope that ambassadors could be e5chan:ed Muic4ly& Cn an intervie% %ith 9elesur follo%in: the tal4s, Jaua stated that the Qene)uelan :overnment is pursuin: improved bilateral ties %ith the 3&+&, based on the premise of mutual respect, non(interference in internal affairs and the proper treatment of disa:reements& Cf this is respected then %e can move for%ard in relations %ith 3&+&, Jaua added& 9he tal4s too4 place as an aside durin: the @"rd =eneral Assembly of the Or:anisation of American +tates (O&A&+&*R it %as the first hi:h profile meetin: bet%een the t%o :overnments since 2 ?& 2urrently, neither country hosts ambassadors from the other in their capitals& 9his yearAs meetin: of the "D member states of the O&A&+& %as focused on re:ional counter(narcotics efforts& Kast month, an O&A&+&(commissioned report %as released, %hich recommends member states discuss cannabis le:alisation, a proposition that >erry opposed in his address to the assembly&

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<ene9uela2C(&na @elat&ons

<ene9uela2C(&na relat&ons are (&)( an% res&l&ent !eople7s Da&l'F 13 2hinese ne%spaper (Future 2hina(Qene)uelan cooperation loo4s optimistic, D$!"$2 !", http#$$en:lish&peopledaily&com&cn$? BB"$B2@!2!!&html* $$ /+
2A-A2A+, /ay ! (Yinhua* (( Officials President 0icolas /aduro

from Qene)uela and 2hina have voiced confidence in bilateral relations since too4 office in April, sayin: the t%o countriesA cooperation prospects loo4 :reat& 2hina and Qene)uela established diplomatic relations in !?E@& Cn recent years, the t%o countries have e5panded their cooperation in ener:y, finance, infrastructure, technolo:y and production& 6urin: his !@(year mandate, the late Qene)uelan President ;u:o 2have) visited 2hina si5 times and boosted bilateral relations & After /aduro %as s%orn in last month, he said his :overnment %ill continue to attach :reat importance to its strate:ic partnership %ith 2hina and %ill further deepen and promote their cooperative relations in various fields& <9he best %ay to pay tribute to 2have) is to continue to deepen Qene)uela and 2hinaAs strate:ic relationship,< he said& 9he 2hina(Qene)uela ;i:h Kevel Joint 2ommission %as established in 2 ! as a hi:h(level decision(ma4in: center of the cooperation bet%een the t%o countries& A 'oint development fund bet%een the t%o nations %as created in 2 E& ;an 6epin:, re:ional chief of 2hina 6evelopment 1an4As
American division, told Yinhua that the 'oint development fund and the lon:(term financin: loans are cornerstones of cooperation bet%een the t%o countries& 9hey not only help underta4in: the financial ris4s for the 2hinese enterprises, but also solve the bud:et restriction for the Qene)uelan :overnment, ;an said& 7an: Pon:, 2hinaAs economic and commercial counselor to Qene)uela, said trade volume bet%een 2hina and Qene)uela amounted to over 2" billion dollars in 2 !2& Qene)uela has become 2hinaAs fourth lar:est tradin: partner in Katin America&

2hina has provided more than " billion dollars to Qene)uela in financin: nearly " pro'ects in ener:y, a:riculture, industry, technolo:y and infrastructure , he added&

bilateral cooperation

@elat&ons (&)( an% res&l&ent no" structural &nter%epen%ence A<NF 13 A:encia Qene)olona de 0oticias (Qene)uela, 2hina stren:then relations to meet peopleAs needs, D$!"$2 !", http#$$%%%&avn&info&ve$contenido$vene)uela(china(stren:then(relations(meet(people "?s( needs* $$ /+
2aracas, !" /ay& AQ0&( Qene)uelaAs

national :overnment has a historic responsibility of improvin: and stren:thenin: the relationship built by the leader of the 1olivarian -evolution, ;u:o 2have), and leaders of the PeopleAs -epublic of 2hina, emphasi)ed /onday vice(president Jor:e Arrea)a& /eetin: %ith his 2hinese counterpart Ki Punchuao, in 2aracas, the Qene)uelan Qice(president stressed that the main :oal of this meetin: is to solidify cooperation bet%een the t%o nations, %hich is based on common development <al%ays thin4in: on meetin: the needs of our people, %hich %as the le:acy left by our commander ;u:o 2have)&< 9his is not a diplomatic relationship, stressed /r Arrea)a, but it heads to%ards essential pro'ects in matters of ener:y, infrastructure, housin:, a:riculture, science, technolo:y and 4no%led:e, as %ell as meetin: the needs of the Qene)uelan and 2hinese people & 6urin:
this visit, Arrea)a commented, Qice(president Puanchao %ill be able to inspect pro'ects completed in matters of housin:, oil, a:riculture, infrastructure and also revie% aspects of the 'oint fund& <7e came to inspect %hat has been built and basin: on it to put up hi:her and

more stable buildin:s of %elfare and prosperity,< said vice(president Arrea)a, %ho %as accompanied by forei:n minister Glias Jaua& Cnsistin: on that the bilateral relationship is not mere %ords nor diplomacy , vice(president Arrea)a said that throu:h it the Qene)uelan and 2hinese people benefit from a process of union, inte:ration, mutual respect and collective buildin: of solutions and 'oint policies & Cn addition, the Qene)uelan Qice(president than4ed the 2hinese Administration for its support
durin: the last days of socialist leader ;u:o 2have)& <7e have reaffirmed that our commitment if ;u:o 2have)As&&& 9hat international policy devised by 2ommander prioriti)es relationships %ith the PeopleAs -epublic of 2hina,< he said& 2hinaAs vice(president arrived +unday in 2aracas %ith a vie% to stren:then bi(national cooperation, informed Qene)uelan vice(president Jor:e Arrea)a& Cn addition, his a:enda (%hich e5tends throu:h /ay !F( includes meetin: %ith chairperson of state oil company P6Q+A, -afael -amire), and 0ational Assembly chairperson 6iosdado 2abello&

More e+&%ence ArsenaultF 13 Al Ja)eera %eb producer, former reporter %ith Cnter Press +ervice ne%s a:ency and 21+ radio (2hris, Qene)uela loo4s to 2hina for economic boost, Al Ja)eera, "$!2$2 !", http#$$%%%&al'a)eera&com$indepth$features$2 !"$ "$2 !""!2E! D""B?"D!&html* $$ /+

Nuclear War MICHIGAN 7WS 2013 ?4/221 As relations bet%een Qene)uela and the 3+ soured in recent years, Qene)uela loo4ed a%ay from its traditional tradin: partner to%ards the east& 2hina could soon surpass the 3+ as Qene)uela8s lar:est tradin: partner & Qene)uelaAs interim President 0icolas /aduro, %ho too4 the 'ob follo%in: the death of President ;u:o 2have) on /arch D, held tal4s %ith 2hinese officials over the %ee4end& <9he best tribute that %e could :ive to our comandante 2have) is to deepen our strate:ic relationship %ith our beloved 2hina,< said /aduro, %ho once served as Qene)uela8s forei:n minister& Cn a televised
meetin: %ith /aduro, Zhan: Pin:, chairman of 2hina8s 0ational 6evelopment and -eform 2ommission, said deepenin: relations bet%een 2hina and Qene)uela are the only %ay to comfort the soul of President ;u:o 2have)& Cf elected president on April !@, /aduro has said his

first trip abroad %ill be to 2hina& ;enriMue 2apriles, leader of Qene)uela8s opposition, criticises most :overnment policies but :enerally supports e5pandin: trade %ith 2hina& 9he countries have launched t%o satellites to:ether in recent years, and 2hina is ne:otiatin: a free trade deal %ith /ercosur, a +outh American tradin: )one & <ene9uela2C(&na relat&ons (&)( no" <&ce !res&%ent7s +&s&t pro+es Correo %el .r&nocoF 13 Qene)uelan ne%spaper (Qene)uela(2hina relations :ro% follo%in: QP8s visit, D$!E$2 !", http#$$%%%&correodelorinoco&:ob&ve$%p( content$uploads$2 !"$ D$2OC!DB&pdf* $$ /+ Qene)uela and the People8s -epublic of 2hina too4 a further step for%ard in stren:thenin: their bilateral relations last /onday %hen Qice President Ki Puancho visited the 2aribbean country as part of his recent tour of +outh America& 7e have come to amplify our political similarities as %ell as our areas of cooperation, reciprocal benefit, and shared profits, said QP Ki upon arrivin: at the Presidential Palace of /iraflores in the Qene)uelan capital of 2aracas & Ki %as met by President 0icolas /aduro and his e5ecutive cabinet in order to advance pro'ects that %ill satisfy the essential needs of our people, %rote Qene)uela8s second(in(command, Qice President Jor:e Arrea)a via his 9%itter account& Four ne% accords %ere in4ed
bet%een the :overnments of 2aracas and 1ei'in: durin: the visit involvin: hydrocarbon, petrochemical, telecommunication and mineral development in Qene)uela&

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<ene9uela2Iran @elat&ons
Iran&an &nfluence on <ene9uela lo" no"2 1K C(a+e9 "as #e' Sull&+anF 13 Spec&al&st &n /at&n Amer&can Affa&rs at t(e Con)rness&onal @esearc( Ser+&ce (/ar4, <;u:o 2hfve)8s 6eath# Cmplications for Qene)uela and 3&+& -elations<, April ?, http#$$%%%&fas&or:$s:p$crs$ro%$-@2?B?&pdf*$$QP Cn terms of Qene)uela8s forei:n policy, observers %ho believe that /aduro %ill %in the election maintain that there %ould be continuity %ith the policy under President 2hfve), especially since /aduro served as his Forei:n /inister for more than si5 years&
/any see Qene)uela8s stron: support for 2uba continuin: under a /aduro presidency, althou:h some analysts contend that a difficult economic situation in Qene)uela could result in a diminishment of that support& +ome observers also contend that %ithout 2hfve) at the helm,

Qene)uela8s role as a re:ional po%er could be:in to %ane as %ell as its relations %ith Cran &!BQene)uela8s stren:thenin: of relations %ith Cran in recent years is vie%ed by many analysts as bein: driven by the personal relationship bet%een 2hfve) and Cranian President /ahmoud Ahmadine'ad& 2K A(ma%&ne:a% "as #e'OIran&an lea%ers(&p "on7t cont&nue t(e partners(&p Aass&(&F 13 Wr&ter for t(e Wall Street ournal I Farna), <Cran Keader Kambasted for 9ribute to 2hfve)<, /arch E, http#$$online&%s'&com$article$+1! !@2@!2EBBE"2"F2BB @DEB"@FF!!B2!BE D 2&html*$$QP 1ut for Cran, /r& 2hfve)As death 'eopardi)es the carefull' cult&+ate% all&ance "&t( one of t(e nat&onNs fe" all&es an% &ts )ate"a' &nto /at&n Amer&caL MrL C(S+e9Ns close t&es to Iran "ere re)ar%e% ner+ousl' e+en amon) (&s o"n const&tuentsL /r& Ahmadine'ad faced his o%n s4eptics over the relationship in his o%n countryL /r& Ahmadine'ad leaves office in June and althou:h he %ill li4ely continue to be a player in CranAs politics, the e5tent of his influence in forei:n policy is unclear& <6efinitely this %ill have an impact on CranAs relations %ith Qene)uela FM
said political analyst +ade:h Ziba4alam said by telephone from 9ehran& <7hat %ill become of CranAs billions of dollars of investmentsH<

Iran7s presence &s %ecl&n&n) no" AA!F 13 A:ence France(Presse (Cran8s Cnfluence ^7anin:8 in Katin America# 3+ =eneral, /arch !?, http#$$%%%&:lobalpost&com$dispatch$ne%s$afp$!" "!?$irans(influence(%anin:(latin(america(us( :eneral*$$QP Cran is <stru::lin:< to cultivate ties %ith Katin American countries that are %ary of the 3 nited +tates, and 9ehranAs influence in the re:ion is on the decline, a top 3+ :eneral said 9uesday& <9he reality on the :round is that Cran is stru::lin: to maintain
influence in the re:ion, and that its efforts to cooperate %ith a small set of countries %ith interests that are inimical to the 3nited +tates are %anin:,< =eneral John >elly, head of 3+ +outhern 2ommand, told la%ma4ers& Cn Qene)uela, $ol&+&aF -cua%or an% Ar)ent&naF Iran (as sou)(t

to e1pan% diplomatic and economic lin4s to counter international sanctions and to promote anti(3+ sentiment, >elly told the +enate Armed +ervices 2ommittee& 1ut the bid has only been <mar:inally successful< and the broader re:ion <has not been receptive to Cranian efforts,< the :eneral said& !lan can7t sol+e <ene9uelan2Iran relat&ons2 fore&)n pol&c' means t(e >S &sn7t #e' Aernan%e9F 13 Journalist and +ecretary of the /uslim Federation of +pain (Pusuf, 7hy Katin America 7ill 0ot 1o% to 3+ Pressure over Cran, January !, http#$$alethone%s&%ordpress&com$2 !"$ !$!!$%hy(latin(america(%ill(not(bo%(to(us(pressure(over( iran$*$$QP 9herefore, Katin American nations %onqt allo% the 3+ to dictate their forei:n policy on t(e &ssue of t(e&r relat&ons "&t( Iran or an' ot(er countr'& Cn fact, 7ashin:ton has already had a si:n of this %hen it tried to pressure these countries to vote a:ainst Palestineqs bid to :ain the status of a non(member state at the 3nited 0ations& Only one
country, Panama, %hose :overnment has stron: lin4s %ith the Zionist entity and the local Zionist lobby voted a:ainst it&

,ens&ons %on7t #&ll relat&ons2 cooperat&on &s res&l&ent Sull&+anF 13 Spec&al&st &n /at&n Amer&can Affa&rs at t(e Con)rness&onal @esearc( Ser+&ce (/ar4, <;u:o 2hfve)8s 6eath# Cmplications for Qene)uela and 3&+& -elations<, April ?, http#$$%%%&fas&or:$s:p$crs$ro%$-@2?B?&pdf*$$QP

Nuclear War 41/221

6urin: the 2

MICHIGAN 7WS 2013

B 3&+& presidential campai:n, 1arac4 Obama maintained that his Administration %ould use principled bilateral diplomacy to en:a:e %ith such adversaries in the re:ion as Qene)uela under populist President ;u:o 2hfve)& 0evertheless, tensions continued in 3&+&( Qene)uelan relations, %ith President 2hfve) continuin: to define himself in opposition to the 3nited +tates, usin: incendiary rhetoric to insult the 3&+& =overnment and 3&+& influence in Katin America&FB 7hile in mid(2 ?, Ambassadors %ere returned, in late 2 ! , the 2hfve) :overnment revo4ed an a:reement for 3&+& Ambassador(desi:nate Karry Palmer to be posted to Qene)uela& 9he Obama Administration responded by revo4in: the diplomatic visa of the Qene)uelan Ambassador to the 3nited +tates& 6espite tensions in relations,

the +tate 6epartment maintains that the 3nited +tates remains committed to see4in: constructive en:a:ement %ith Qene)uela, focusin: on such areas as anti(dru: and counter(terrorism efforts & <ene9uela2Iran relat&ons (&)( no"2 meet&n)s an% comm&tment pro+es !ress,<F */10 (Cran, Qene)uela relations to last forever# Ahmadine'ad, Press9Q, June ! , 2 !", http#$$%%%&presstv&com$detail$2 !"$ F$! $" B22D$iran(vene)uela(relations(to(last(forever$*$$QP Cranian President /ahmoud Ahmadine'ad has hailed Cran(Qene)uela ties, sayin: the t%o nations %ill stand by each other as they have common enemies, ideals and :oals& Cn a /onday meetin: %ith the ne% Qene)uelan Ambassador to 9ehran Amenhotep Zambrano, President Ahmadine'ad said that relations bet%een the t%o countries are at a very hi:h level and are :ro%in: stron:er by the day& Cran and Qene)uela are on the same front and have common enemies, ideals and :oals and %ill stand firmly by each other, the Cranian president added& ;e said nothin: can prevent the deepenin: of friendship and brotherhood bet%een the t%o countries as they are beyond bilateral diplomatic ties and %ill last forever& President Ahmadine'ad said /at&n Amer&can nat&ons (a+e a"a#ene% an% are trea%&n) t(e pat( of &n%epen%enceF %&)n&t' an% res&stanceF "(&c( "&ll lea% to +&ctor' & ;e also praised the late Qene)uelan President ;u:o 2have) as a :reat fi:ure and the symbol of resistance& Cn the meetin:, the Qene)uelan ambassador submitted his credentials to the Cranian president and praised bilateral ties bet%een the t%o countries, sayin: imperialism is rattled by Cran(Qene)uela unity& <ene9uelan2Iran relat&ons (&)( no" IASWF 7/17 CnterAmerican +ecurity 7atch (Cran, Qene)uela to up economic ties, Press9Q, July !E, 2 !", http#$$interamericansecurity%atch&com$iran(vene)uela(to(up(economic(ties$*$$QP ;ead of the Cran(Qene)uela Parliamentary Friendship =roup Abdolre)a /esri has underscored the importance of enhancin: economic ties bet%een the t%o countries as a means to promote the :lobal status of both states& At
a 7ednesday meetin: %ith Qene)uelan Ambassador to Cran Amenhotep Zambrano in the Cranian capital city, 9ehran, /esri denounced the sanctions imposed by 7estern po%ers a:ainst Cran and Qene)uela as fruitless& /utual economic and commercial cooperation bet%een the

t%o countries can meet the interests of the t%o nations and improve their international position , he added& ;e also e5pressed the full preparedness of Cran8s /a'lis and the members of the Cran(Qene)uela Parliamentary Friendship =roup to promote bilateral ties %ith the Qene)uelan parliament& Zambrano, for his part, e5pressed 2aracas8 %illin:ness to cement ties %ith 9ehran in all economic, industrial and commercial fields and described the t%o countries8 scientific achievements& 9he Qene)uelan ambassador also praised the hi:h turnout in Cran8s June !@th presidential election as ^unparalleled in the %orld8 and described Cran as a stable country %ith enormous political po%er& 0early D &D million Cranians,
includin: more than !&F million first(time voters, %ere eli:ible to participate in the June !@ presidential election& 9he Cnterior /inistry put the voter turnout at E2&E percent& ;assan -ohani, %ho %on D &E percent of the vote to secure an outri:ht victory in the election, %ill succeed Cranian President /ahmoud Ahmadine'ad&

>S act&on %oesn7t %o an't(&n) to resol+e <ene9uela2Iran relat&ons Mallett2.uttr&mF 7/21 7riter for Qene)uela Analysis (-yan, 9he /yth and -eality of Qene)uela(Cran 9ies( Analysis, Qene)uela Analysis, 2 !", http#$$%%%&eurasiarevie%&com$2! E2 !"(the(myth(and(reality(of( vene)uela(iran(ties(analysis$*$$QP Focusin: on the Cran(Qene)uela relationship as a defensive initiative does not :ive an accurate impression of the %hole story, but is, nonetheless, the most controversial aspect of the relationship& Pet this relationship as an aspect of defence policy is not only reasonable, but almost inevitable :iven 7ashin:ton8s handlin: of the t%o countries in recent years& As /ichael 2orcoran ri:htly pointed out in February, despite bein: lumped in the same bas4et by much of the 7estern media, internally the :overnments of Cran and Qene)uela couldn8t be more different& As 2orcoran ar:ues# Qene)uela has internationally reco:ni)ed elections and %or4s to empo%er the %or4in: class and the poor& 2hfve)8s opponents in
Qene)uela are free to broadcast their discontent and do& Qene)uela may in fact be the only nation %here the media could publicly call for a coup of an elected leader, as some Qene)uelan media outlets did in 2 2, and remain on the air& 2ertainly, such activities %ould not be permitted in

Nuclear War MICHIGAN 7WS 2013 42/221 the 3nited +tates& Cn contrast, Cran, an Cslamist state, 'ails dissidents, e5ecutes :ays, and is ruled %ith absolute po%er by +upreme Keader Ayatollah Ali >hamenei& Pet for the 3&+& media, Cran and the left(leanin: Katin American :overnments are all of a piece& 9his assumption under:irds the demoni)ation of the pin4 tide leaders as dan:erous pa%ns in Cran8s supposed efforts to build nuclear %eaponsJefforts that are unconfirmed by 3&+& intelli:ence a:encies or the Cnternational Atomic Gner:y A:ency& C couldn8t put it better myself& 0onetheless, the disdain %ith %hich 7ashin:ton has treated both countries over the last decade has led them to ta4e a number of similar actions in the international theatre& Cf a :lobal he:emon treats t%o countries similarly, then it shouldn8t be a mystery %hen they both respond in similar %ays& Ct really shouldn8t have come as a surprise to anyone to see both Cran and Qene)uela pursuin: policies of deterrence throu:hout the last decade& No Impact to <ene9uela2Iran "ar WaltF 10 Professor at ;arvard (+tephen /&, , /ore hype about CranH Forei:n Policy, http#$$%alt&forei:npolicy&com$posts$2 ! $ @$2 $moreLhypeLaboutLiran*$$QP One of the more remar4able features about the endless drumbeat of alarm about Cran is that it pays virtually no attention to CranAs actual capabilities, and rests on all sorts of %orst case assumptions about Cranian behavior& 2onsider the follo%in: facts, most of them courtesy of the 2 !
edition of 9he /ilitary 1alance, published annually by the presti:ious Cnternational Cnstitute for +trate:ic +tudies in Kondon# =6P# 3nited +tates (( !"&B trillion Cran (([ "D? billion (3&+& =6P is rou:hly "B times :reater than CranAs* 6efense spendin: (2 B*# 3&+& (( [F?2 billion Cran (( [?&F billion (3&+& defense bud:et is over E times lar:er than Cran* /ilitary personnel# 3&+&((!,DB ,2DD activeR BF@,D@E reserves (very %ell trained* Cran(( D2D, activeR "D , reserves (poorly trained* 2ombat aircraft# 3&+& (( @, ? (includes 3+AF, 3+0, 3+/2 and reserves* Cran (( "!2 (serviceability Muestionable* /ain battle tan4s# 3&+& (( F,2D! (Army ` /arine 2orps* Cran (( !,F!" (serviceability Muestionable* 0avy# 3&+& (( !! aircraft carriers, ?? principal surface combatants, E! submarines, !F patrol boats, plus lar:e au5iliary fleet Cran (( F principal surface combatants, ! submarines, !@F patrol boats 0uclear %eapons# 3&+& (( 2,E 2 deployed, rF, in reserve Cran (( Zero One mi:ht add that Cran hasnAt invaded anyone since the Cslamic

revolution, althou:h it has supported a number of terrorist or:ani)ations and en:a:ed in various forms of covert action& 9he 3nited +tates has also bac4ed terrorist :roups and conducted covert ops durin: this same period, and attac4ed a number of other countries, includin: Panama, =renada, +erbia, +udan, +omalia, CraM (t%ice*, and Af:hanistan& 1y any ob'ective measure, therefore, Cran isnAt even on the same pa:e %ith the 3nited +tates in terms of latent po%er, deployed capabilities, or the %illin:ness to use them& Cndeed,
Cran is si:nificantly %ea4er than Csrael, %hich has rou:hly the same toal of re:ular plus reserve military personnel and vastly superior trainin:& Csrael also has more numerous and modern armored and air capabilities and a si)eable nuclear %eapons stoc4pile of its o%n& Cran has no po%erful allies, scant po%er(pro'ection capability, and little ideolo:ical appeal& 6espite %hat some alarmists thin4, Cran is not the reincarnation of 0a)i =ermany and not about to unleash some ne% ;olocaust a:ainst anyone& 9he more one thin4s about it, the odder our obsession %ith Cran appears& CtAs a pretty unloveable re:ime, to be sure, but :iven CranAs actual capabilities, %hy do 3&+& leaders devote so much time and effort tryin: to corral support for more economic sanctions (%hich arenAt :oin: to %or4* or devisin: strate:ies to <contain< an Cran that sho%s no si:n of bein: able to e5pand in any meanin:ful %ayH Gven the dan:er that a future Cranian bomb mi:ht set off some sort of re:ional arms race seems e5a::erated, accordin: to an unpublished dissertation by Philipp 1lee4 of =eor:eto%n 3niversity& 1lee4As thesis follo% suit even if Cran did <:o nuclear< at some point in the future*&

e5amines the history of nuclear acMuisition since !?@D and finds little evidence for so(called <reactive proliferation&< Cf heAs ri:ht, it su::ests that CranAs nei:hbors mi:ht not

,oo man' alt causes to /at&n Amer&can relat&ons Gran%&nF 11 7riter for the 0ation (=re:, ObamaAs Katin America Policy# -ene%al or Further 6eclineH /arch !F, 9he 0ation, http#$$%%%&thenation&com$blo:$!D?2DF$obama(latin(america(rene%al(or(further( decline*$$QP 1arac4 Obama heads to Katin America tomorro%, brin:in: %ith him little more than a %innin: smile and the hope that the after:lo% of his election, %hich
Katin Americans celebrated %ith :reat cheer, still %arms& 9he trip is meant to sho% that his administration has not let crises, domestic and forei:n, prevent a proactive en:a:ement %ith the re:ion& Cn reality, Obama %ill be playin: catch(up, tryin: to slo% do%n 2hina8s inroads into %hat used to be the 3nited +tates8s bac4yard, shore up an alternative to the so(called bad left countries of Qene)uela, 0icara:ua, 1olivia and sometimes Gcuador and Ar:entina, and %in bac4 1ra)il& 7ith its [F trillion economy, 1ra)il has helped lead %hat Gcuador8s president -afael 2orrea recently called the second and definitive independence of Katin America, opposin: 7ashin:ton on issues ran:in: from climate chan:e to trade, Palestine to ;onduras& ;avin: been early critics of the militarism ( most

Katin American countries opposed the 7ar on 9error broadly and the invasion of CraM in particular* and e5treme neoliberalism that crashed the 3nited +tates, they believed he %ould help them create a ne% hemispheric frame%or4, leavin: behind the old failed orthodo5ies and findin: a %ay to cooperatively deal %ith transnational problems li4e poverty, ineMuality, crime, mi:ration and climate chan:e& At the very least, they thou:ht he %ould finally end the 3+ cold %ar a:ainst 2uba & 1ut despite :ettin: off to a :ood start at the +ummit of the Americas shortly after his inau:uration, Obama has lar:ely disappointed& ;is administration8s shameful le:itimi)in: of the June 2 ? ;onduran coup %as a symbolic turnin: point, but the disenchantment has been %idespread& An e5pected alliance %ith 1ra)il8s Kui) Cnfcio Kula da +ilva didn8t pan outR immi:ration reform is off the table, as is a rene%al of the assault rifles ban that mi:ht stem the flo% of the %eapons into /e5icoR the 3 nited +tates refuses to lo%er its multibillion(dollar subsidy and tariff pro:ram that floats corporate :iants li4e A6/ and /onsantoR 2uba remains a pariah, if only in 7ashin:ton8s eyes& As Obama Muic4ly learned, obstacles to an effective hemispheric diplomacy %ere not to be found in the bad left< countries but much closer to home# it8s the 0-A, the anti(2astro 2uban lobby, a:ro(industry,

Nuclear War MICHIGAN 7WS 2013 43/221 anti(Katino 'in:oism, as %ell as the +tate and 2ommerce departments (alon: %ith the Office of the 3+ 9rade -epresentative* stuffed
%ith holdovers from the 2linton and 1ush administrations, that prevent much(needed movement on any number of issues# mi:ration, 2uba, :un smu::lin: into /e5ico, tariffs (the last 2on:ress rene%ed a D@ cent tariff on each :allon of imported 1ra)ilian ethanolJso much for free trade*, and poverty reduction& As a result,

Obama succumbed to inertia, carryin: on a disastrous %ar on dru:s and pushin: an economic a:enda as if 2 B (or 2 in Ar:entina, the %orst recorded economic collapse in history* never happened&

Nuclear War 46/221

MICHIGAN 7WS 2013

$&ofuels
$&ofuels can7t sol+e "arm&n) an% mult&ple structural 3arr&ers pre+ent t(e&r a%opt&on an% use t(e&r aut(ors (a+e a f&nanc&al &ncent&+e to s#e" t(e %ata Ba)anF 10 reporter and researcher for =reen 9ech /edia (Joshua, 7ill the 1P =ulf 9ra:edy +pur Faster Adoption of 1iofuelsH, =reen 9ech /edia, F$2!$2 ! , http#$$%%%&:reentechmedia&com$articles$read$%ill( the(bp(:ulf(tra:edy(spur(faster(adoption(of(biofuels* $$ /+ Any conversation that hi:hli:hts biofuels as a potential replacement for petroleum must be :rounded in the specific :eneration of biofuels that one is discussin:& 7hile <advanced< biofuels %ill be discussed later in this piece, %e need to first come to a reco:nition of the fact that first(:eneration biofuels li4e corn ethanol and biodiesel cannot ever possibly replace petroleum& 7hyH Cn 2 ! , the 3&+& %ill utili)e " I of our corn crop to displace FI of our :asoline consumption (see 9he 9rue 2ost of 2orn Gthanol*& Gven if %e utili)ed ! I of our corn crop for ethanol production, %e %ould still only :ro% enou:h to offset a fraction of our :asoline needs& And this says nothin: about our diesel or 'et fuel consumption& Additionally, corn ethanol production is ener:y intensive& 9he processes of :ro%in:, harvestin:, transportin:, pre(treatin:, fermentin:, and distillin: it all reMuire copious amounts of fresh %ater, nutrients, pesticides, and ener:y& 9here is no scientific consensus on %hether more ener:y (and =;=s* :oes into or comes out of the corn ethanol production process& Furthermore, ethanol cannot be used in blends above ! I %ithout modification to oneAs en:ine and the fuel is lar:ely incompatible %ith much of the trillions of dollarsA %orth of petroleum infrastructure currently in use in the 3&+& Additionally, the 3&+& %ill soon hit its <blend %all&< 9he GPA has determined that only blends of ! I ethanol are safe in unmodified :asoline en:ines& 9hat is, if there are !@ billion :allons of :asoline consumed in the 3&+& mar4et, only !@ billion :allons of ethanol can be blended & Pet, in 2 ! , more than !2 billion :allons %ill be produced& 3nder
the Gner:y Cndependence and +ecurity Act (GC+A* of 2 E, the 3&+& is reMuired to blend increasin: amounts of corn ethanol into the :asoline supply, reachin: a level of !D billion :allons in 2 !D& Gither the GPA %ill soon increase this blend limit (%hich %ill create a %hole sle% of other problems, li4e vehicle %arranties bein: capped at ! I ethanol blends (( see Gthanol and the Koomin: 1lend 7all*, or the 3&+& %ill have to fi:ure out a %ay of Muic4ly convertin: vehicles, pipelines, and service stations to accommodate <GBD< blends of :asoline, an underta4in: that could cost billions of dollars& 7hile

pro(ethanol lobbyist :roups li4e the -ene%able Fuels Association and =ro%th Gner:y (%hose constituents are the recipients in more than [D billion %orth of direct corporate %elfare annually* continue to espouse the merits of corn ethanol, C have yet to meet anyone %ithout a financial sta4e in the industry %ho seriously believes that corn ethanol is a viable lon:(term solution& One dan:er that can occur %ith environmental catastrophes li4e the 1P disaster is the emer:ence of a herd(li4e mentality# <7e need alternatives no%X KetAs invest in biofuels by :ivin: more money to the ethanol industry& < $&ofuels can7t sol+e "arm&n) t(e' (arm t(e en+&ronment more t(an foss&l fuels an% t(ere7s tons of alt causes Aarro"F 7 reporter for the =uardian, citin: 6r& -enton -i:helato of the 7orld Kand 9rust (9ristan, 1iofuels s%itch a mista4e, say researchers, 9he =uardian, B$!F$2 E, http#$$%%%&:uardian&co&u4$environment$2 E$au:$!E$climatechan:e&ener:y* $$ /+ Cncreasin: production of biofuels to combat climate chan:e %ill release bet%een t%o and nine times more carbon :ases over the ne5t " years than fossil fuels, accordin: to the first comprehensive analysis of emissions from biofuels& 1iofuels ( petrol and diesel e5tracted from plants ( are presented as an environmentally friendly alternative to fossil fuels because the crops absorb carbon dio5ide from the atmosphere as they :ro%& 9he study %arns that forests must not be cleared to ma4e %ay for biofuel crops& 2learin: forests produces an immediate release of carbon :ases into the atmosphere, accompanied by a loss of habitats, %ildlife and livelihoods , the researchers said& 1ritain is committed to substitutin: ! I of its transport fuel %ith biofuels under Gurope%ide plans to slash carbon emissions by 2 2 & < 1iofuel policy is rushin: ahead %ithout understandin: the implications,< said -enton -i:helato of the 7orld Kand 9rust, a conservation charity& <Ct is a mista4e in climate chan:e terms to use biofuels&< 6r -i:helatoAs study , %ith 6ominic4 +prac4len from the 3niversity of Keeds, is the first to calculate the impact of biofuel carbon emissions across the %hole cycle of plantin:, e5traction and conversion into fuel& 9hey report in the 'ournal +cience that bet%een t%o and nine times more carbon emissions are avoided by trappin: carbon in trees and forest soil than by replacin: fossil fuels %ith biofuels& Around @ I of GuropeAs a:ricultural land %ould be needed to :ro% biofuel crops to meet the ! I fossil fuel substitution tar:et& 9hat demand on arable land 000@esources000

Nuclear War MICHIGAN 7WS 2013 45/221 cannot be met in the G3 or the 3+, say the scientists, so is li4ely to shift the burden on land in developin: countries& 9he 0ational Farmers 3nion said 2 I of 1ritainAs a:ricultural land could be used to :ro% biofuels by 2 ! & ;o%ever, the researchers say reforestin: the land %ould be a better %ay to reduce emissions& 1iofuels loo4 :ood in climate chan:e terms from a 7estern perspective, said 6r +prac4len, but :lobally they actually lead to hi:her carbon emissions & <1ra)il, Para:uay, Cndonesia amon: others have hu:e deforestation pro:rammes to supply the %orld biofuel mar4et<, he said& 9he researchers say the emphasis should be placed on increasin: the efficiency of fossil fuel use and movin: to carbon(free alternatives such as rene%able ener:y & $&ofuels can7t sol+e "arm&n) most recent e+ We3sterF 13 reporter for the 2arbon 1rief (-obin, 9hin4tan4# 1iofuels are too e5pensive ( and they don8t al%ays reduce emissions, 9he 2arbon 1rief, @$!D$2 !", http#$$%%%&carbonbrief&or:$blo:$2 !"$ @$chatham( house(on(biofuels* $$ /+ +ustainability rules %onAt help reduce biofuelsA impact on food security and the environment, accordin: to a ne% report out today& 9he paper predicts Guropean tar:ets for addin: fuel made from crops to petrol %ill cost 3> motorists n!&" billion a year by 2 2 & Accordin: to research by -ob 1ailey at thin4tan4 2hatham ;ouse, transport fuel made from crops or ve:etable oils is not a cost(effective %ay to reduce :reenhouse :as emissions& 1iofuel tar:ets have been controversial ever since scientific studies be:an indicatin: that these fuels may have a far hi:her impact on :reenhouse :as emissions than previously thou:ht& 9he :overnment remains committed to the tar:ets, ho%ever& Policy measures 1iofuels currently ma4e up about five per cent of fuel used in the 3> transport net%or4 & 1ut this is li4ely to :ro% in the future as a result of a complicated nest
of G3 and 3> level tar:ets& 9he 2 B -ene%able Gner:y 6irective reMuires the G3 to :et ten per cent of transport fuels from Arene%ableA sources by 2 2 & /ean%hile, the 2 ? Fuel ,uality 6irective demands that transport fuels must reduce :reenhouse :as emissions per unit of ener:y by si5 per cent belo% 2 ! levels by 2 2 & Cn the 3>, the :overnment intends to deliver on both directives throu:h the -ene%able 9ransport Fuel Obli:ation (-9FO*& 9he -9FO reMuires that an increasin: amount of the fuel used for road transport comes from biofuels& Follo%in: a revie% of the social and environmental impacts of biofuels, the :overnment has fro)en the -9FO at five per cent& 1ut the 2hatham ;ouse briefin: points out that if the 3> is :oin: to meets its G3 tar:ets it %ill have to 4eep increasin: the amount of biofuels in the 3> transport sector&

$&ofuels can7t sol+e "arm&n) &ncrease crop )ro"t( "(&c( necess&tates %eforestat&on an% furt(er en+&ronmental %e)ra%at&on GreenpeaceF 7 independent climate or:ani)ation (1iofuels# :reen dream or climate chan:e ni:htmareH, D$?$2 E, http#$$%%%&:reenpeace&or:&u4$blo:$climate$biofuels(:reen(dream(or(climate(chan:e(ni:htmare( 2 E D ?* $$ /+
As you may have already seen, alon: %ith 77F, the -+P1, Friends of the Garth and enou:hsenou:h&or:, %eAve

placed an advert in several of todayAs papers %arnin: the :overnment about the environmental ris4s of biofuels as an alternative to petrol and diesel& ;an: on, C ima:ine some of you are sayin: ri:ht no%, arenAt they supposed to be clean and :reen %ith the po%er to save us from the
tyranny of fossil fuelsH 7ell, yes&&& and no& 1iofuels such as ethanol (a petrol replacement that 1ra)il is doin: so much to champion* and biodiesel can indeed have advanta:es over more traditional fuel sources& /ade from processed a:ricultural crops such as su:ar cane and oil palm, burnin: biofuels only releases the carbon dio5ide those plants absorbed durin: their lifecycle, not massive Muantities of compressed, fossilised carbon that has been loc4ed out of the carbon cycle for millions of years& +o naturally, they could form part of the solution to climate chan:e , at least if

it

doesnAt ta4e a hu:e amount of ener:y to actually ma4e them %hich is sometimes the case& 9he battle bet%een cars and
people As a result, the :overnment has :rabbed onto biofuels li4e a dro%nin: sailor and in the proposed -ene%able 9ransport Fuel Obli:ation (-9FO* is insistin: that all fuel companies increase the amount of biofuels they supply& +ounds li4e a :reat idea, until you loo4 at ho% theyAre

produced& As =eor:e /onbiot has been pointin: out for several years (see here, here and, more recently, here*, if their production isnAt properly monitored and controlled, it could spell disaster for rainforests, our o%n food and %ater supplies and even climate chan:e& C 4no% itAs statin: the bloody obvious but these crops need to be :ro%n some%here& 9hereAs a finite amount of arable land on the planet and most, if not all, of that is already bein: used to feed the F billion plus population & /onbiot points out that if %e rely on crops for our fuel supplies, it %ill <set up a competition for food bet%een cars and people< and that crop prices are already risin: as a result& As food becomes more and more e5pensive, you can bet it %onAt be those sittin: behind the %heel of a @5@ :oin: hun:ry& 7ith prices for biofuel crops risin: ever hi:her as demand increases, the temptation to open up ne% areas of arable land is 'ust too :reat & Clle:al timber isnAt
the only reason the rainforests of south(east Asia are bein: torn do%n, and in Cndonesia vast areas that %ere once vir:in forest are bein: replanted %ith palms, the oil from %hich :oes into a multitude of supermar4et products and, increasin:ly, biofuels& 7ith species such as oran:(utans

already hi:hly endan:ered, the e5pansion of oil palm plantations into their remainin: habitat could be the final stra%& 6eforestation S climate chan:e 9he lin4 bet%een deforestation and accelerated climate chan:e is %ell( established, not least in the +tern -evie% %hich said that !B per cent of emissions are as a result of forest destruction& Another fact in our o%n press release that cau:ht my eye is that biodiesel from soya :ro%n on deforested land %ould

Nuclear War MICHIGAN 7WS 2013 4*/221 ta4e 2 years before it could be considered Acarbon neutralA& 1ut to even attempt to meet the %orldAs current fuel demands, colossal tracts of land %ould need to be turned over to biofuel production so the irony is that instead of reducin: emissions, this supposedly A:reenA alternative could actually be increasin: them by an order of ma:nitude& ,urn2 $&ofuels %r&+e up )lo3al foo% pr&ces $&elloF ? reporter for the +cientific American, citin: a study in Science (6avid, 1iofuels Are 1ad for Feedin: People and 2ombatin: 2limate 2han:e, +cientific American 2$E$2 B, http#$$%%%&scientificamerican&com$article&cfmHidSbiofuels(bad(for(people(and(climate* $$ /+ 6ivertin: food crops into fuel production leads to ever more land clearin: as %ell& Gthanol demand in the 3&+& , for e5ample, has caused some farmers to plant more corn and less soy& 9his has driven up soy prices causin: farmers in
1ra)il to clear more Ama)on rainforest land to plant valuable soy, +earchin:erAs study notes& 1ecause a soy field contains far less carbon than a rainforest, the :reenhouse :as benefit of the ori:inal ethanol is %iped out& <2orn(based ethanol, instead of producin: a 2 percent savin:s \in :reenhouse :as emissions], nearly doubles :reenhouse emissions over " years and increases :reenhouse :ases for !FE years,< the researchers %rite& < 7e canAt

:et to a result %ith corn ethanol %here %e can :enerate :reenhouse :as benefits,< +earchin:er adds& 9urnin: food into fuel also has the unintended conseMuence of drivin: up food prices, reducin: the access of the neediest populations to :rains and meat& <CtAs eMuivalent to sayin: %e %ill try to reduce : reenhouse :ases by reducin: food consumption,< +earchin:er says& <3nfortunately, a lot of that comes from the %orldAs poorest people&< Increase% foo% pr&ces "&ll cause mass star+at&on affect&n) 45C of t(e "orl% populat&onOD2@ule A%ams ? staff %riter for naturalne%s&com (April 2", 9he 1iofuels +cam, Food +horta:es and the 2omin: 2ollapse of the ;uman Population, http#$$%%%&naturalne%s&com$ 2" ?!&html*
+o, to repeat, the food bubble is no% startin: to implode& 7hat does it all meanH Ct means that as these economic and climate realities unfold, our %orld is facin: massive starvation and food shorta:es & 9he first place this %ill be felt is in poor developin: nations & Ct is there

that people live on the ed:e of economic livelihood, %here even a 2 I rise in the price of basic food staples can put desperately(needed calories out of reach of tens of millions of families& Cf somethin: is not done to rescue these people from their pli:ht, they %ill starve to death & 7ealthy nations li4e America, 2anada, the 3&>&, and others %ill be able to absorb the price increases, so you %onAt see mass starvation in 0orth America any time soon (unless, of course, all the honeybees die, in %hich case prepare to start che%in: your shoelaces&&&*, but it %ill lead to si:nificant increases in the
cost of livin:, annoyin: consumers and reducin: the amount of money available for other purchases (li4e vacations, cars, fuel, etc&*& 9hat, of course, %ill put do%n%ard pressure on the national economy& 1ut %hat %eAre seein: ri:ht no%, fol4s, is 'ust a small foreshado%in: of events to come in the ne5t couple of decades& 9hin4 about it# Cf these minor climate chan:es and foolish biofuels policies are already unleashin: alarmin: rises in

food prices, 'ust ima:ine %hat %eAll see %hen Pea4 Oil 4ic4s in and :lobal oil supplies really start to d%indle& 7hen :asoline is [!

a :allon in the 3&+&, ho% e5pensive %ill food be around the %orldH 9he ans%er, of course, is that it %ill be triple or Muadruple the current price& And that means many more people %ill starve& Fossil fuels, of course, arenAt the only limitin: factor threatenin: future food supplies on our planet# 9hereAs also fossil %ater& 9hatAs %ater from under:round aMuifers thatAs bein: pumped up to the surface to %ater crops, then itAs lost to evaporation& 2ountries li4e Cndia and 2hina are dependin: heavily on fossil %ater to irri:ate their crops, and not surprisin:ly, the %ater levels in those aMuifers is droppin: steadily& Cn a fe% more years (as little as five years in some cases*, that %ater %ill simply run dry, and the crops that %ere once irri:ated to feed a nation %ill dry up and turn to dust& /ass starvation %ill only ta4e a fe% months to 4ic4 in & 9hin4 0orth >orea after a season of floods&

Perhaps ?DI of humanity is 'ust one crop season a%ay from mass starvation & H&)(er foo% pr&ces "&ll %&sproport&onatel' affect @uss&aOp&#es "&ll %estro' pol&t&cal sta3&l&t' an% lea% to c&+&l "ar Dasmann ? (Qictor, -FG$-K analyst, <Analysis# =lobal Food 2risis 2atches 3p 7ith -ussia,< 6ate published# D$!F$!2& 6ate accessed# F$" $!2& http#$$%%%&rferl&or:$content$article$!!!E@?E&html* Food prices %ill be the bi::est sin:le problem facin: ne%ly minted -ussian President 6mitry /edvedev& Over the last si5 months,
hardly a sin:le speech by /edvedev, Qladimir Putin, or other leadin: -ussian political fi:ures has failed to include mention of this burnin: issue& And for :ood reason& Gven as food prices rise dramatically around the %orld, the rate of increase in -ussia has been rou:hly

three times :reater than that in the Guropean 3nion& Cn April, the cost of basic foodstuffs rose in -ussia by F&@ percent, compared to !&B percent in Gurope, accordin: to official -ussian fi:ures& 6ependin: on the re:ion, prices of basic products such as bread, mil4, and meat have risen bet%een E and 22 percent so far this year, movin: inflation to the top of the list of -ussiaAs national concerns& An opinion survey in /arch found that "? percent of -ussians vie% risin: food prices as the bi::est national problem , %hile "B percent named inflation :enerally, and 2E percent named lo% %a:es& Just B percent of respondents mentioned corruption& 9hese findin:s are an early %arnin: %orth heedin: in a country %ith a history of hun:er(tri::ered political

Nuclear War MICHIGAN 7WS 2013 47/221 unrest, most notably the !?!E February -evolution that toppled 9sar 0icholas CC& 9he >remlin understands this and
purchased a measure of political stability durin: the election cycle that be:an last 6ecember %ith three price free)es on basic consumer :oods& Garlier this year, Putin as4ed 6eputy Prime /inister and Finance /inister Ale4sei >udrin (%ho retained both posts after Putin moved to the premiership last %ee4* to head a special commission on inflation and to report %ee4ly on the status of prices across the country& As the last price free)e e5pired on April " , the :overnment %as preparin: a special <food(security< la% that %ould indefinitely fi5 the prices of seven <socially important< commodities& /edvedev, %ho for the last three years has overseen an ambitious national pro'ect to revive the a:ricultural sector, has tried to contain the political dama:e that seems inevitable if prices sur:e follo%in: the e5piry of the latest price free)e& ;e has said that a :lobal food deficit is the main driver of -ussiaAs food troubles, addin: that if not for his efforts in recent years, the situation %ould be %orse& <Ct is very re:rettable %hen you %or4 and %or4 and then this rubbish comes from the %orld mar4et because of the mista4es of our collea:ues in other countries,< /edvedev complained& <And as a result the entire planet is sufferin:&< Keadin: Food Cmporter Althou:h food prices are, indeed, risin: :lobally, -ussiaAs leaders have do%nplayed the fact that -ussia is one of the %orldAs leadin: importers of food & As such, it stands to suffer disproportionately from the

food crisis& Amon: =B countries, only -ussia and Japan are net food importers& -ussia imports about @F percent of the food and a:ricultural ra% materials it consumes each year& At a February !@ press conference, Putin revealed that some of -ussiaAs lar:est cities
import up to BD percent of the food they consume& All in all, -ussia imports ED percent of the meat it consumes and half of the ve:etable oil& +till %orse, -ussian dependence on imported food is on the rise& Food imports increased by a factor of three bet%een 2 and 2 F, and the primary reason for this is the on:oin: decline of the countryAs a:ricultural sector& 9o ta4e 'ust one e5ample, meat and mil4 production has fallen by half since !?? , and -ussiaAs total cattle herd has declined to the level of !?!B& 6espite all of /osco%As tal4 of its <soverei:n democracy,< the country has failed to boost its independence in this crucial arena& Accordin: to fi:ures released by the 7orld 1an4 and the 30 last month, :lobal price increases for food are li4ely to continue, and accelerate, for the ne5t decade& -ussiaAs dependence on imported food has important domestic and international implications& 0ot only is it possible that food(related social unrest could disturb -ussiaAs fra:ile stability, but it is also li4ely that the costs of supportin: this habit could derail the >remlinAs ambitious plans to reshape the national economy& 9he >remlin %ill be forced to divert more and more of its petrodollar %indfall from national(development pro'ects to the purchase of food imports& Cn fact, this process has already be:un, as the country is s%ept by a massive %ave of consumerism& 6espite the price increases, -ussiaAs consumption of meat, for instance, has increased D percent in 2 B alone& 9o meet risin: demand, /osco% reduced import duties& 0aturally, this boosted imports, but that made domestic production less competitive and enra:ed -ussian farmers&

@uss&an c&+&l confl&ct "&ll escalate to nuclear "ar Da+&% 44 Professor of Political +cience at John ;op4ins 3niversity (+teven -&, +avin: America from the 2omin: 2ivil 7ars, Forei:n Affairs, Jan$Feb !???* 2onflicts fou:ht %ithin the borders of a sin:le state send shoc4 %aves far beyond their frontiers& 9o be:in %ith,
internal %ars ris4 destroyin: assets the 3nited +tates needs& 7ere the Persian =ulf oil fields destroyed in a +audi civil %ar, the American economy (and those of the rest of the developed %orld* %ould suffer severely& Cnternal %ars can also unleash threats that stable :overnments

formerly held in chec4& As central :overnments %ea4en and fall, %eapons of mass destruction may fall into the hands of ro:ue leaders or anti(American factions& /ore directly, internal %ars endan:er American citi)ens livin: and travelin: abroad& Kiberia
%ill not be the last place America sends helicopters to rescue its stranded citi)ens& Finally, internal %ars, %hen they erupt on 3&+& borders, threaten to destabili)e America itself& 3&+& intervention in ;aiti %as spurred, in lar:e part, by fear of the flood of refu:ees poised to enter the 3nited +tates& All of these dan:ers are :rave enou:h to %arrant considerationR %hat ma4es them even more serious is the fact that their impact on America is lar:ely unintended& 1ein: unintended, the spill(off effects of civil %ars are not easily deterred, %hich creates uniMue challen:es to American interests& 3&+& policyma4ers have traditionally tried to s%ay forei:n leaders throu:h a simple formula# ensure that the benefits of defyin: America are out%ei:hed by the punishment that the 3nited +tates %ill inflict if defied& 9hat calculus, ho%ever, no lon:er applies %hen there is no sin:le, rational :overnment in place to deter& 9his raises the cost to AmericaR if the 3nited +tates (or any country* cannot deter a threat, it must turn to actual self(defense or preemption instead& 3nli4e deterrence, these strate:ies are enormously difficult to carry out and in some cases (such as preventin: the destruction of the +audi oil fields* %ould be impossible& 7ithout deterrence as a policy option, 7ashin:ton loses its most effective means of safe:uardin: its interests& 7here are these ne% threats li4ely to crop upH And %hich should the 3nited +tates be concerned %ithH 9%o criteria must :uide policyma4ers in ans%erin: these Muestions& First is the actual li4elihood of civil %ar in any particular state& American interests %ould be endan:ered by a %ar in 2anada, but the prospect is so improbable it can safely be i:nored& +econd is the impact of a civil %ar on the 3nited +tatesR %ould it threaten vital American security and economic concernsH Future conflict in +ierra Keone may be plausible, but it %ould have such a ne:li:ible impact on the 3nited +tates that it does not 'ustify much attention& Only three countries, in fact, meet both criteria# /e5ico, +audi Arabia, and -ussia& 2ivil conflict in /e5ico %ould produce %aves of disorder that %ould spill into the 3nited +tates, endan:erin: the lives of hundreds of thousands of Americans, destroyin: a valuable e5port mar4et, and sendin: a torrent of refu:ees north%ard& A rebellion in +audi Arabia could destroy its ability to e5port oil, the oil on %hich the industriali)ed %orld depends& And internal %ar in -ussia could devastate Gurope and tri::er the use of nuclear

%eapons&

Nuclear War 4?/221

MICHIGAN 7WS 2013

Aoo% !r&ces
Aoo% pr&ces are (&)( an% e1pecte% to tr&ple lo" suppl&es an% )ro"&n) populat&ons Ha"#esF 7/21 2onsumer Affairs Gditor, 6aily 9ele:raph (+teve, Food prices forecast to treble as %orld population soars, 6aily 9ele:raph, E$2!$!", http#$$%%%&tele:raph&co&u4$finance$personalfinance$consumertips$household(bills$! !?"? "$Food(prices( forecast(to(treble(as(%orld(population(soars&html*$$+P A :overnment adviser said everyday products such as cocoa and meat could become relative lu5uries by the 2 @ s& Professor 9im 1enton, head of =lobal Food +ecurity %or4in: :roup, added there could be shorta:es in the 3> in the future as the emer:in: middle class in south(east Asia spar4s a revolution in <food flo%s< such as the trade in :rain and soya around the %orld& Professor 1enton, from the 3niversity of Keeds, told the 6aily 9ele:raph# <Food is :oin: to be competed for on a :lobal scale& 9hereAs been a lot %ritten about %here food prices are :oin: to :o but they are certaintly :oin: to double, %ith some treblin:& CtAs not 'ust fruit and ve:etables, but everythin:&< 9he shoc4 forecast came as the chief e5ecutive of 9esco, Philip 2lar4e, %arned the era of cheap food %as over because of the forecast sur:e in demand& Cn an intervie% over the %ee4end, the supermar4et chief said# <Over the lon: run C thin4 food prices and the proportion of income spent on food may %ell be :oin: up&< 9he %orldAs population is tipped to rise from E billion to ?&" billion by 2 D & 9%o years a:o, O5fam %arned food prices %ere set to double by 2 " and that millions more could suffer food shorta:es because of a <perfect storm< of ecolo:ical and sociolo:ical factors& Food inflation in the 3> has been runnin: around @ per cent for much of the year, and is amon: the <cent more e5pensive than a year a:o& 9he 3> already imports nearly half the food it consumes& H&)( foo% pr&ces &ne+&ta3le %esp&te &ncrease% pro%uct&on econom&c an% en+&ronmental pressures >NF */* (Food prices to stay hi:h as productions dips, 30 a:ency reports in ! (year outloo4, 3nited 0ations 0e%s 2entre, F$F$!", http#$$%%%&un&or:$apps$ne%s$story&aspH0e%sC6S@D ?DO&3eEM9C29h73*$$+P F June 2 !" A:ricultural production is e5pected to slo% do%n over the ne5t decade, due lar:ely to limited e5pansion of arable land, risin: production costs, environmental pressures and resource constraints, the 3nited 0ations food a:ency said today, launchin: in 1ei'in: its report on the :lobal a:ricultural outloo4& Althou:h relatively resilient to economic do%nturns, the a:ricultural mar4ets continue to reflect the impact of a t%o speed :lobal economy %ith %ea4 recovery in developed countries and vibrant :ro%th in many developin: countries, the authors reported in the ^A:ricultural Outloo4, 2 !"(2 228 produced by the Or:anisation for Gconomic 2o(operation and 6evelopment (OG26* and the 30 Food and A:riculture Or:ani)ation (FAO*& 9his year8s report contains a special feature on the future of a:riculture in 2hina, %hose a:ricultural output rose @&D times since !?B & 7ith one(fifth of the %orld8s population, comparably little a:ricultural land and %ater resources, 2hina8s focus on food security and self( sufficiency have allo%ed it to improve access to food& Cn 1ei'in:, OG26 +ecretary(=eneral An:el =urrha and FAO 6irector(=eneral Josg =ra)iano da +ilva participated in the report8s launch& 9he event %as hosted by the 2hinese Academy of A:ricultural +ciences and is part of a t%o(day international forum& ;i:h food prices are an incentive to increase production and %e need to do our best to ensure that poor farmers benefit from them, said /r& =ra)iano da +ilva& Ket8s not for:et that E per cent of the %orld8s food insecure population lives in rural areas of developin: countries and that many of them are small(scale and subsistence farmers themselves& ;e added# 2hina8s a:ricultural production has been tremendously successful& +ince !?EB, the volume of a:ricultural production has :ro%n almost five fold and the country has made si:nificant pro:ress to%ards food security& 2hina is on trac4 to achievin: the first millennium development :oal of hun:er reduction& Accordin: to the report, :lobal a:ricultural production for crop sectors and livestoc4 production revie%ed is pro'ected to :ro% on avera:e !&D per cent annually, compared to 2&! per cent in the previous decade& 9hese trends reflect risin: costs, :ro%in: resource constraints, and increasin: environmental pressures, %hich are anticipated to inhibit supply response in virtually all re:ions, OG26 and FAO said&

Nuclear War MICHIGAN 7WS 2013 44/221 /r& =urrha said that the relatively bri:ht picture stron: demand, e5pandin: trade and hi:h prices assumes continuin: economic recovery& Cf %e fail to turn the :lobal economy around, investment and :ro%th in a:riculture %ill suffer and food security may be compromised, he said& =overnments need to create the ri:ht enablin: environment for :ro%th and trade, he added& A:ricultural reforms have played a 4ey role in 2hina8s remar4able pro:ress in e5pandin: production and improvin: domestic food security& Policy reforms and economic :ro%th across the :lobe have been chan:in: demand and supply fundamentals sufficiently to turn a:riculture into a more mar4et(driven sector %hich provides investment opportunities, particularly in developin: countries& 9he report forecasts that developin: countries %ill boost their production :ro%th, particularly economies that have invested in the a:ricultural sector, and therefore boost their trade :ro%th, particularly e5ports in coarse :rains, rice, oils, su:ar, beef, poultry and fish& 2onsumption of these :oods is also pro'ected to increase, particularly in Gastern Gurope and 2entral Asia, follo%ed by Katin America and other parts of Asia& =ro%in: populations have been drivin: the increase in consumption, but also hi:her incomes, urbani)ation and chan:in: diets& /ean%hile, avera:e prices are e5pected to be hi:her for the comin: decade than they have been in the previous ten years %hich included historic hi:hs& Aoo% pr&ces are (&)( an% r&s&n) man' en+&ronmental an% econom&c factors IA,F 6/15 (Cnstitute of Food 9echnolo:ists, =lobal food prices continue to rise, @$!D$!", http#$$%%%&ift&or:$food(technolo:y$daily(ne%s$2 !"$april$!D$:lobal(food(prices(continue(to(rise&asp5*$$+P 2ontinuin: a decade(lon: increase, :lobal food prices rose 2&EI in 2 !2, reachin: levels not seen since the !?F s and !?E s but still %ell belo% the price spi4e of !?E@& 9he price increases reverse a previous trend %hen real prices of food commodities declined at an avera:e annual rate of &FI from !?F to !???, approachin: historic lo%s, accordin: to 7orld%atch CnstituteAs Qital +i:ns Online service& Alon: %ith hi:her price levels, volatility has also increased dramatically in recent years& Accordin: to the 3nited 0ations Food and A:riculture Or:ani)ation (FAO*, the standard deviationJor measurement of variation from the avera:eJfor food prices bet%een !?? and !??? %as E&E inde5 points, but it increased to 22&@ inde5 points in the 2 !2 period& Althou:h food price volatility has increased in the last decade, it is not a ne% phenomenon& Accordin: to 7orld 1an4 data, the standard deviation for food prices in !?F ?? %as !!&? inde5 points hi:her than in 2 !2& +ome price volatility is inherent in a:ricultural commodities mar4ets, as they are stron:ly influenced by %eather shoc4s& 1ut the recent up%ard trend in food prices and volatility can be traced to additional factors includin: climate chan:e, an increase in biofuels production, hi:her(than(normal imports, trade policies, lo% levels of stoc4s, risin: ener:y and fertili)er prices, and increased trade %ithin futures mar4ets for food commodities& Cnternational food price trends (measured in terms of consumer prices, not those paid to producers* varied by commodity in 2 !2& 6ue to the ubiMuity of corn, %heat, and rice in :lobal diets, chan:es in the price of cereal :rains :enerally affect consumers more than fluctuations in other foods& +ince food prices be:an increasin: in the early 2 s, cereal prices have 'umped more than B I and e5hibited si:nificant volatility, accordin: to the FAO& 2ontinuin: this trend, :lobal cereal prices increased !2&"I in 2 !2& 3nfavorable %eather conditionsJ includin: severe drou:ht in the 3nited +tates and Gastern GuropeJdrove cereal prices up !B&2I bet%een June and +eptember, %hen they approached the all(time hi:h observed in 2 B& Qarious forces affectin: :lobal food supply and demand have influenced the level and volatility of food prices in the last decade& Population :ro%th and increasin: affluenceJpredominantly in AsiaJhave led to risin: food demand since 2 , %hich in turn has tri::ered hi:her :lobal food prices&

Aoo% pr&ces "&ll rema&n (&)( mult&ple "arrants Wen9lauF 6/11 Food and A:riculture -esearcher, 7orld%atch Cnstitute (+ophie, =lobal Food Prices 2ontinue to -ise, 7orld%atch Cnstitute, @$!!$!", http#$$%%%&%orld%atch&or:$:lobal(food(prices(continue( rise( *$$+P

Nuclear War MICHIGAN 7WS 2013 100/221 2ontinuin: a decade(lon: increase, :lobal food prices rose 2&E percent in 2 !2, reachin: levels not seen since the !?F s and !?E s but still %ell belo% the price spi4e of !?E@& 1et%een 2 and 2 !2, the 7orld 1an4 :lobal food price inde5 increased ! @&D percent, at an avera:e annual rate of F&D percent& 9he price increases reverse a previous trend %hen real prices of food commodities declined at an avera:e annual rate of &F percent from !?F to !???, approachin: historic lo%s& 9he sustained price decline can be attributed to farmers8 success in 4eepin: crop yields ahead of risin: %orld%ide food demand& Althou:h the :lobal population :re% by "&B billion or !22&? percent bet%een !?F! and 2 ! , net per capita food production increased by @? percent over this period& Advances in crop breedin: and an e5pansion of a:ricultural land drove this rise in production, as farmers cultivated an additional @"@ million hectares bet%een !?F! and 2 ! & Food price volatility has increased dramatically since 2 F& Accordin: to the 3nited 0ations Food and A:riculture Or:ani)ation (FAO*, the standard deviationJor measurement of variation from the avera:eJfor food prices bet%een !?? and !??? %as E&E inde5 points, but it increased to 22&@ inde5 points in the 2 !2 period& Althou:h food price volatility has increased in the last decade, it is not a ne% phenomenon& Accordin: to 7orld 1an4 data, the standard deviation for food prices in !?F ?? %as !!&? inde5 points hi:her than in 2 !2& +ome price volatility is inherent in a:ricultural commodities mar4ets, as they are stron:ly influenced by %eather shoc4s& 1ut the recent up%ard trend in food prices and volatility can be traced to additional factors includin: climate chan:e, policies promotin: the use of biofuels, risin: ener:y and fertili)er prices, poor harvests, national e5port restrictions, risin: :lobal food demand, and lo% food stoc4s& Perhaps most si:nificant has been an increase in biofuels production in the last decade& 1et%een 2 and 2 !!, :lobal biofuels production increased more than D percent, due in part to hi:her oil prices and the adoption of biofuel mandates in the 3nited +tates and Guropean 3nion (G3*& Accordin: to a 2 !2 study by the 3niversity of 1onn8s 2enter for 6evelopment -esearch, if biofuel production continues to e5pand accordin: to current plans, the price of feedstoc4 crops (particularly mai)e, oilseed crops, and su:ar cane* %ill increase more than !! percent by 2 2 & Kar:e(scale imports of a:ricultural commodities in 2 E B and 2 !! %ere important factors in the :lobal food price spi4es in those years& ;i:h 2hinese imports of soybeans, for instance, contributed to the 2 !! spi4e& 0ational e5port restrictions, includin: ta5es and bans, also drove up food pricesR policies enacted in 2 E B in response to the price spi4e :enerated panic in net(food importin: countries and raised :rain prices by as much as " percent, accordin: to some estimates& Cn the last fe% decades, periods in %hich the cereals stoc4(to(use ratio (the level of carryover reserves of cereals as a percenta:e of total annual use* %as near its minimum have correlated %ith a hi:h price of calories from food commodities& 7hen food stoc4s are hi:h, shoc4s can be absorbed more easily than %hen stoc4s are lo% or none5istent& 9he %orld stoc4(to(use ratio for calories from %heat, mai)e, and rice %as lo%er in the last decade than in the t%o precedin: decades, %hich may be a main reason for hi:her :lobal food prices& -isin: ener:y and fertili)er prices drove up food prices as %ell, by addin: to production, processin:, transportation, and stora:e costs& Accordin: to the 7orld 1an4 commodity price inde5, the avera:e price of ener:y durin: 2 !2 %as !B"&F percent hi:her than the avera:e price durin: !?? ??, %hile the avera:e price of fertili)er increased ! @&B percent in the same period& 9here is reason to believe that food commodity prices %ill be both hi:her and more volatile in the decades to come& As climate chan:e increases the incidence of e5treme %eather events, production shoc4s %ill become more freMuent& Food prices %ill also li4ely be driven up by population :ro%th, increasin: :lobal affluence, stron:er lin4a:es bet%een a:riculture and ener:y mar4ets, and natural resource constraints& Accordin: to the FAO, althou:h hi:h food prices tend to a::ravate poverty, food insecurity, and malnutrition, they also represent an opportunity to cataly)e lon:(term investment in a:riculture, %hich could boost resilience to climate chan:e and au:ment :lobal food security&

Aoo% pr&ces rema&n&n) lo" fa+ora3le "eat(er allo"s for &ncrease% suppl&es GanceF 7/25 Gconomic -eporter, -euters (Pai:e, 7orld 1an4 says food prices fell a:ain in latest period, -euters, E$2D$!",http#$$%%%&reuters&com$article$2 !"$ E$2D$us(%orldban4(food( id3+1-G?FO!JF2 !" E2D*$$+P

Nuclear War MICHIGAN 7WS 2013 101/221 (-euters* ( =lobal food prices fell by 2 percent in the latest four(month period, mar4in: the third strai:ht period of declines, as declinin: imports in the /iddle Gast and 0orth Africa, and lo%er demand pushed prices do%n !2 percent from their Au:ust 2 !2 pea4, the 7orld 1an4 said on 9hursday& 9he 7orld 1an4As Food Price Cnde5 sho%ed international prices of %heat fell by 2 percent, su:ar by F percent, soybean oil by !! percent, and mai)e, or corn, by ! percent durin: the four(month period bet%een February and June& 9he inde5, %hich %ei:hs e5port prices of food, fats and oils, :rains, and other foods in nominal 3&+& dollars, fell by 2 percent& Cmproved %eather conditions after last yearAs drou:hts helped bolster the production of %heat& 9he ban4 said it e5pects :ood harvests from the ma'or producers to continue as lon: as unfavorable %eather in northern and central Gurope, -ussia and 2hina does not dra: on production& =lobal mai)e production is e5pected to reach a record hi:h this year, accordin: to the report, partly driven by a revival in demand from 3&+& ethanol producers& Aoo% pr&ces lo" an% sta3le )oo% "eat(er means &ncrease% )lo3al suppl' an% %ecrease% %eman% BAAF 7/15 (>eep Food Affordable, Food prices fell in June, E$!D$!", http#$$4eepfoodaffordable&com$2 !"$ E$!D$food(prices(fell(in('une$*$$+P For the second strai:ht month, the 308s Food and A:riculture Or:ani)ation report on food prices fell due to an increase in supply and decrease in demand& 2omin: off the heels of the devastatin: 2 !2 drou:hts in the 3+ and Gurope, the :lobal food supply has rebounded than4s to this year8s better(than(e5pected %eather& 9he month of June %itnessed a @I drop in dairy costs and "I decline in su:ar prices since April and /ay, in addition to increased forecasts for %heat and mai)e output& 9he ri:ht amount of rain and shine this :ro%in: season, coupled %ith diminished demand has led to a decrease in prices& Accordin: to FAO senior economist Abdolre)a Abbassian, crop prospects are even better than %hat %e anticipated last monthN%e should be in for a season %ith lo%er prices and as inventories are bein: rebuilt, especially for corn, prices should be more stable&

Aoo% pr&ces lo" an% %ecl&n&n) &ncrease &n )lo3al suppl&es of staple crops Ala"o%eF 7/11 +enior 2orrespondent, 1usiness 6ay (Oluyin4a, =lobal food prices drop as rice stoc4piles reach !2(year hi:h, E$!!$!", http#$$businessdayni:eria&com$:lobal(food(prices(drop(rice(stoc4piles(reach(!2( year(hi:hhttp#$$businessdayni:eria&com$:lobal(food(prices(drop(rice(stoc4piles(reach(!2(year(hi:h*$$+P Prices of rice and some other food commodities in the international mar4et are :oin: do%n sharply as the stoc4piles of rice in producin: countries reach the hi:hest in !2 years& Cn a release, a =eneva(based /amadou 2iss, the president of Alliance 2ommodities +A, %ho has traded rice for almost three decades said, 9he stoc4s are so bi:R C don8t thin4 anyone can tal4 about a bottom in prices& 9here is oversupply for sure in the %orld& 9he crops are pretty :ood every%here& Accordin: to data from :lobal inventories, the 9hai :rade rice fell ! percent to [D2@ (0B",B@ * per ton this year even as the +tandard T Poor8s =+2C A:riculture +pot Cnde5 of ei:ht commodities retreated !F percent& 9he /+2C All(2ountry 7orld Cnde5 of eMuities advanced D&D percent and a 1an4 of America 2orp& inde5 sho%s treasuries lost "&D percent& 1y implication, the fact that producin: countries are e5pandin: rice production and stoc4piles mean less demand for imports, %hich the 3nited 0ation8s Food T A:riculture Or:anisation (FAO* in -ome estimates %ill drop to "E&F million tons, contractin: for the first time in four years& 9he e5pansion in rice stoc4piles has added to a %orld%ide sur:e in a:ricultural output :enerally that is poised to diminish the [!&! trillion (0!EF trillion* :lobal food(import bill, accordin: to the industry %atchers& =lobal a:ricultural output has e5panded @@ percent since 2 F(2 E, 3nited +tates 6epartment for A:riculture (3+6A* data sho%& Accordin: to the 3+6A estimates, reserves %ill :ain for a seventh year, risin: 2&E percent to ! B&F million metric tons in 2 !"(2 !@& Output %ill climb !&? percent to @E?&2 million tons, e5ceedin: demand by 2&B million

Nuclear War MICHIGAN 7WS 2013 102/221 tons& Prices for D(percent bro4en 9hai %hite rice, an Asian benchmar4, %ill drop !" percent to [@DD a ton by 6ecember, this year, accordin: to the median of ei:ht trader and analyst estimates compiled by 1loomber:& 2ombined :lobal output of rice, corn, soybeans and %heat %ill advance to a record as fields in the 3nited +tates and Gurope recover from drou:hts last year, accordin: to the 3+6A& 7heat, corn and soybeans are already in bear mar4ets, contributin: to t%o consecutive months of declinin: %orld food costs trac4ed by the 3nited 0ations& 2urrent inventories of rice, the staple for half the %orld, are no% eMual to almost three years of annual trade& Aoo% pr&ces lo" an% %ecl&n&n) most recent e+&%ence @eutersF 7/6 (=lobal food prices fall !I as supply prospects improve, =uardian, E$@$!", http#$$%%%&:uardian&co&u4$business$2 !"$'ul$ @$:lobal(food(prices(fall(supply(improves*$$+P =lobal food prices fell !I in June due to improvin: supply prospects, the 3nited 0ationsA food a:ency has said , raisin: forecasts for %heat and mai)e output in the ne% season& Food prices spi4ed durin: the summer of 2 !2 due to a historic drou:ht in the 3+ but prospects for a rebound in :lobal :rain supply and :ood %eather forecasts are no% %ei:hin: on mar4ets& 9he Food and A:riculture Or:anisationAs (FAO* price inde5 that measures price chan:es for a bas4et of cereals, oil seeds, dairy, meat and su:ar, fell for a second month runnin: to 2!!&" points in June its lo%est level since February& <2rop prospects are even better than %hat %e anticipated last month, %hile demand is subdued,< said FAO senior economist Abdolre)a Abbassian& <7e should be in for a season %ith lo%er prices and as inventories are bein: rebuilt, especially for corn, prices should be more stable,< he added& FAO and the A:riculture /ar4et Cnformation +ystem (Amis* raised their estimate for 2 !"$!@ %orld %heat output by 2m tonnes to E @m tonnes, pointin: to improvin: prospects in nearly all ma'or producin: countries %ith the e5ception of the 3+& 9he or:anisations also raised their estimates for mai)e output in 2 !"$!@ to ?E2m tonnes from a previous forecast of ?F"m tonnes in June& 9he fall in FAOAs inde5 %as driven above all by a @I drop in dairy costs from hi:h levels reached in April and /ay, and a "I decline in su:ar prices on the bac4 of improved supply prospects& Cts cereal prices inde5 fell about !I %hile prices of edible oils reached a si5(month lo%&

Aoo% pr&ces lo" an% %ecl&n&n) )lo3al suppl&es at (&)(est &n %eca%es Dan&ellsF */5 +enior Gditor, 0utraCn:redients(3+A and Food0avi:ator(3+A (+tephen, Food and bevera:e prices to drop by D$EI in 2 !" as :lobal food security improves, Food0avi:ator(3+A, F$D$!", http#$$%%%&foodnavi:ator(usa&com$/ar4ets$Food(and(bevera:e(prices(to(drop(by(D&E(in(2 !"(as(:lobal( food(security(improves*$$+P 1umper corn and %heat crops are e5pected to help the price of commodities fall this year, increasin: food affordability and security, says the latest scores from the =lobal Food +ecurity Cnde5 (=F+C*& 9he Gconomist Cntelli:ence 3nit8s (GC3*5'o"a' 6ood Security 7nde8 (56S74 %as commissioned by 6uPont to deepen the dialo:ue on food security, evaluates the affordability, availability and Muality of food across ! D countries& Jan Kenferin4, -e:ional President G3-O7, 6uPont 0utrition T ;ealth, told Food0avi:ator(3+A that the =F+C loo4s at the root causes of hun:er& 9he Cnde5 %ill cataly)e sta4eholder collaboration to develop solutions for pressin: issues such as food affordability, availability, nutritional Muality and safety& 0ot only %ill it provide an ob'ective, %orld%ide perspective on food security, but it %ill :ive course for action& Food security affects us all and is a :oal that %ill only be accomplished throu:h %or4in: to:ether& All eyes on the 3+ And, accordin: to the inde58s latest data, the outloo4 for 2 !" is positive& 7hile :lobal corn prices rose durin: 2 !2, in part because a drou:ht in the 3+ helped drive :lobal inventories to a si5(year the 3+ %ill plant the
lar:est crop in EE years&

9he GC38s outloo4 for the rest of 2 !" e5tend data from the FAO inde5, %hich sho%ed that the price of foods purchased most often by the food insecure cereals or staple crops dropped by 2&@I durin: the Muarter&

Nuclear War MICHIGAN 7WS 2013 103/221 6espite the stron: supply forecasts for 2 !", concerns over the %eather challen:es e5perienced by 3+ farmers could dampen the optimism 3ne5pectedly cold %eather delayed the plantin: season in some placesR should farmers be unable to ma4e up for those delays, prices could rise hi:her than the GC3 forecasts, posin: :reater ris4s for :lobal food security later in the year& 9he :lobal economy is slo%ly :ainin: momentum, %hich should boost employment and incomes and support food security, said Keo Abru))ese, =lobal Forecastin: 6irector for the GC3& At the same time, %e e5pect the prices of soft commodities to fall& Our latest forecast is for food, feed and bevera:e prices, overall, to drop by D&EI this year& Aoo% pr&ces lo" an% %ecl&n&n) lo"er %eman% an% &mpro+e% suppl' @eutersF 13 (=lobal food prices fall on lo%er demand, improved supplies (7orld 1an4, "$2E, http#$$%%%&reuters&com$article$2 !"$ "$2E$%orldban4(food(id3+K20 2J22/2 !" "2E*$$+P 7A+;C0=9O0, /arch 2E (-euters* ( =lobal food prices have declined in recent months as lo%er demand for cereals and improved supplies pushed prices do%n, the 7orld 1an4 said on 7ednesday, %arnin: that prices %ere still near record pea4s and volatile& 9he 7orld 1an4As Food Price Cnde5 sho%ed international prices of %heat fell by !! percent, su:ar by ! percent and mai)e, or corn, by F percent durin: the four(month period bet%een October 2 !2 and February 2 !"& 9he poverty(fi:htin: institution said lo%er demand from a sharp fall in the use of %heat feed and declines in corn consumption for ethanol in the 3nited +tates has pushed prices do%n& Favorable %eather conditions in some re:ions have also raised hopes of better crop supply for 2 !"&

Nuclear War 106/221

MICHIGAN 7WS 2013

Aoo% Secur&t'
@ecor% suppl' of r&ce Danofs#' 7/15 (6avid, +upply of the %orld8s favorite food is at a !2(year hi:h, ,uart), July !Dh, 2
hi:h$*$$+,-

!", http#$$M)&com$! @2""$supply(of(the(%orlds(favorite(food(is(at(a(!2(year(

9he %orld has a :lut of rice& July estimates from the 3+ 6epartment of A:riculture sho% e5pectations of %orld rice stoc4s reachin: ! B& million tonnes in 2 !" and 2 !@& 9he last time :lobal reserves %ere this full %as in 2 ! and 2 2, %hen !"2&? million tonnes %ere stored& 9he 3+6A reports (pdf* that stoc4s are do%n in the 3nited +tates, Cndonesia, and Qietnam but up in 2hina, 0i:eria, and 9hailand& 9he type of 9hai rice that is used to benchmar4 prices in Asia has declined @&?EI this year, as the 9hai :overnment has heavily subsidi)ed the nation8s crop& (Prices are do%n substantially from the incredible hi:hs of 2 B caused by an unfounded panic over rice shorta:es&* 9he 9hai paddy pled:in: pro:ram has lead to rampant smu::lin: from nei:hborin: 2ambodia and /yanmar, accordin: to -euters& See% +ault sol+es an' crop loss2 3est 3ac#up t(ere &s Ma)ness 7/10( reporter (Judy, Arctic +eed Qault Preserves the 7orld8s A:ricultural +upply, 9he +uit, July !
island cluster, t%o(thirds of %hich is covered %ith :laciers& 1uilt 9ime /a:a)ine deemed one of the best inventions of 2

th , 2 !", http#$$%%%&thesuitma:a)ine&com$technolo:y$science$22 F(arctic(seed(vault(preserves(the(%orlds(a:ricultural(supply&html*$$+,Cn the Arctic Ocean, about B miles from the 0orth Pole and mid%ay to mainland 0or%ay is the +valbard archipela:o, a remote

B& 6ubbed 0oah8s Ar4 for +eeds, 9he

into the mountainside on the remote island of +pitsber:en sits %hat Fort >no5 of Food and also a more

ominous 6oomsday Qault, these are the most popular nic4names tossed around by the media& Officially, its name is the +valbard =lobal +eed Qault and it is a fortress, built specifically for protectin: and housin: the %orld8s lar:est collection of human4indAs smallest, but most important a:ricultural assets seeds& 9he concept of the +valbard =lobal +eed Qault (+=+Q* is often compared
to that of a safe deposit bo5 in a ban4& 9he 0or%e:ian :overnment, %hich fully funded the [? million construction pro'ect o%ns the buildin: 'ust as a ban4 o%ns its buildin:& 6epositors from over !,D seed ban4s around the %orld o%n the seeds they depositR no one else has access to any other depositor8s seeds but the depositor& 9hese individual seed ban4s send duplicates of the seed samples in their collections to the Qault for safe stora:e&

Gvery sin:le seed in +valbard is therefore considered a bac4(up for these native seed collections, :arnered from the %orld8s crops& 9he Qault is mana:ed by three entities# the =lobal 2rop 6iversity 9rust, an independent international or:ani)ation %hose
mission it is to ensure the conservation and availability of crop diversity for food security %orld%ideR the 0ordic =enetic -esource 2enter (0ord=en*, a 0ordic or:ani)ation dedicated to the safe:uardin: and sustainable use of plants, farm animals and forest landsR and the =overnment of 0or%ay& =overnments around the %orld are amon: the primary sources of fundin: for the 9rust, alon: %ith private or:ani)ations, includin: 9he 1ill T /elinda =ates Foundation& 0ame a seed and chances are it8s in the Qault, %hich accordin: to the 9rust, holds over E ,

samples from almost every country in the %orld& 9he need for such e5trava:ant measures to safe:uard the %orld8s seed collections is t%o(fold& First, climate chan:e, alon: %ith increases in %orld population are challen:in: current a:ricultural production, creatin: a need for ne% varieties of crops & +econd, %hile there are over !,D
seed ban4s around the %orld doin: due dili:ence to protect their native plant collections, scientists and conservationists have lon: been concerned about the vulnerability of these institutions to the rava:es of %eather, %ar, poor mana:ement and lac4 of fundin:& +hould the contents of their

collection be destroyed for any reason, the native crops could possibly face e5tinction in a crisis& 9he 9rust describes
the +valbard =lobal +eed Qault located in the to%n of Kon:yearbyen, the lar:est settlement in the +valbard archipela:o as a fail(safe, state(of(the(art seed stora:e facility that has been built to stand the test of time and survive natural disasters& Openin: in 2 B, construction of the Qault too4 ei:ht months %hich is a remar4able achievement, considerin: the environment, operational lo:istics and the uniMue desi:n of the facility& All construction materials and buildin: eMuipment, for instance, had to be delivered to the Arctic by ship or plane, includin: :iant machinery capable of tunnelin: into the mountainside& 9he en:ineerin: and security surroundin: the Qault is also fascinatin:& 9he %orld has trusted the Qault %ith its seeds, and all possible measures to 4eep the seeds safe in the Qault have been ta4en, accordin: to the 9rust& For starters, polar bears are on point 2@$E roamin: the area some%hat a4in to a natural team of security :uards& Anyone see4in: access to the seeds themselves has to pass throu:h four loc4ed doors# the heavy steel entrance doors, a second door appro5imately !!D meters do%n the tunnel and finally the t%o doors to the Qault rooms& >eys are coded to allo% access to different levels of the facility& 0o sin:le 4ey unloc4s all of the doors& 7hile there is no daily staff on(site (aside from the polar bears*, local officials use motion detectors, electronic surveillance and 0ord=en representatives visit the Qault re:ularly to chec4 in ne% seed shipments and to monitor the facility& 7hile the seed Qault is not considered hi:h on the list of tar:ets for terrorist attac4s, preventative measures in addition to the secured facility are bein: ta4en, includin: airport 5(ray screenin:s of seed shipments, chec4in: for e5plosives& 1esides en:ineerin: and security attributes of the +valbard =lobal +eed Qault, there are many reasons %hy the Arctic environment is an optimum location for preservation& 1uilt into the mountain at @" ft& above sea level to 4eep the area dry, the interior of the mountain provides superior insulation, lo% humidity and no detectable radiation& Accordin: to the 9rust, Permafrost (permanently fro)en subsoil* and thic4 roc4 ensure that even in the case of a po%er outa:e, the seed samples %ill remain fro)en& 9he Qault can therefore be considered the ultimate insurance policy for the %orld8s

food supply& Ct %ill secure for centuries, millions of seeds representin: every important crop variety available in the %orld today& Crop (ar+ests '&el% normal &n all sect&ons Mantemac( 7/1*( a: services director for 6oane Advisory +ervices(6an, 2rop estimates confirmed at harvest, A= Profressional, July !F
http#$$%%%&a:professional&com$a:professional(ma:a)ine$2rop(estimates(confirmed(at(harvest(2!DE!B2F!&htmlHvie%Sall*$$+,-

th

, 2 !",

Nuclear War MICHIGAN 7WS 2013 105/221 Gach /ay, nearly every lin4 in the :lobal food chain ea:erly %aits for 3+6A8s first official supply$demand balance sheet forecasts for the 3&+& and the %orld as a %hole& 9he first balance sheets in the /ay 7A+6G (7orld A:ricultural
+upply$6emand Gstimates* :et the most focus because these are the first ones that incorporate survey(based /arch Prospective Plantin:s for acrea:e, and also, the si)e of the +outhern ;emisphere crops are lar:ely 4no%n by /ay& 9hat leads any reasonable sta4eholder in the outloo4 for ma'or crops in any :iven year to as4, +o ho% close do the /ay 7A+6G estimates come in pre(season estimates of the li4ely supply$demand balance si5 months later, after the ne% crop harvests are completedH 9o ans%er that Muestion, C loo4ed bac4 at the record of the past si5 years for %orld %heat, coarse :rains, corn, soybeans, rice and cotton& ;istory sho%s that over 'ust about any si5(year period, %eather(%ise the %orld %ill e5perience one unusually :ood yearR one unusually poor year, and about four years that fall some%here in bet%een& 7hat C found %as that /ay 7A+6G estimates (%here 3+6A assumes normal %eather and normal

yields for every ma'or producin: country of all ma'or crops, are remar4ably close %hen you avera:e all si5 years& ;ere are my Muic4 observations on the data contained in the accompanyin: table, crop by crop# 7orld 7heat# 9here
%ere three years %hen 6ecember production e5ceeded the initial estimate in /ayR three %hen it fell short& 1ut the avera:e chan:e in the up years %as only "&2" percent %hile the avera:e chan:e in the do%n years %as ?&DD percent& +o, even thou:h the variance in million metric tonnes %as fairly close (about 2! mmt*, the impact on :lobal prices %as si:nificantly :reater in the do%n years than in the bumper crop years& 7orld 2oarse =rains#

6ecember production e5ceeded the initial estimate in /ay in four of the past si5 yearsR but fell short in t%o& 9he avera:e
miss in the up years %as 'ust !&F percent %hile the avera:e miss in the years %hen production fell short %as @&2E percent&

Suppl' an% %eman% means farmers "&ll ma#e more foo% emp&r&call' true ;u3r&n 5/13/11 JFello% %ith the 2enter for +ecurity Policy 1&A& in /athematics from the 3niversity of -ochester (!?E@*, and a masters de:ree
in Aeronautics and Astronautics, a masters de:ree in 0uclear Gn:ineerin:, and a Ph&6& in 0uclear Gn:ineerin: (-obert, 7;P C98+ 7-O0= 9O A=-GG 7C9; 9;G /AK9;3+CA0+ A1O39 G9;A0OK http#$$%%%&ilcorn&or:$daily(update$!B2(%hy(it(rsMuo(s(%ron:(to(a:ree(%ith(the(malthusians(about(ethanol$* $$+,Cn fact, Kester 1ro%n is %ron: about the alle:ed famine(inducin: potential of the ethanol pro:ram for e5actly the same reason

he has been repeatedly %ron: about the alle:ed famine(inducin: potential of population :ro%th& 9here is not a fi5ed amount of :rain in the %orld& Farmers produce in response to demand& 9he more customers, the more :rain& 0ot only that, but the lar:er the potential mar4et, the :reater the motivation for investment in improved techniMues& 9his is %hy, despite the fact that the %orld population has indeed doubled since Kester 1ro%n, Paul Ghrlich, and the other population control )ealots first published their manifestos durin: the !?F s, people %orld%ide are eatin: much better today than they %ere then& Cn the case of America8s corn :ro%in: industry, the beneficial effect of a :ro%in: mar4et has been especially
pronounced, %ith corn yields per acre in 2 ! (!FD bushels per acre* bein: "E percent hi:her than they %ere in 2 than four times as :reat as they %ere in !?F (@ bushels per acre&* 2 (!2 bushels per acres* and more

Won7t )o to "ar o+er foo% C(an) 2/21/11 =raduated 2ornell Ka% +chool (=ordon,

=lobal Food 7ars http#$$blo:s&forbes&com$:ordonchan:$2 !!$ 2$2!$:lobal(food( %ars$ *$$+,Cn any event, food(price increases have apparently been factors in the unrest no% s%eepin: 0orth Africa and the /iddle Gast& 9he poor spend up to half their disposable income on edibles, ma4in: rapid food inflation a cause of concern for dictators, stron:men, and assorted autocrats every%here& +o even if human4ind does not :o to %ar over bad harvests , Pas4al may be ri:ht %hen she contends that climate chan:e may end up alterin: the :lobal map& 9his

is not the first time in human history that food shorta:es loo4ed li4e they %ould be the motor of violent :eopolitical chan:e& Pet ama)in: a:ronomic advances, especially 0orman 1orlau:8s =reen -evolution in the middle of the 2 th century, have consistently proved the pessimists %ron:& Cn these days %hen capitalism is bein: blamed for most everythin:, it8s important to remember the po%er of human innovation in free societiesJand the efficiency of free mar4ets& ,ec( %e+elopment sol+es ,(ompson 5/13/11 senior fello% for 9he 2hica:o 2ouncil on =lobal Affairs and professor emeritus at the 3niversity of Cllinois at 3rbana(
2hampai:n& (-obert, Provin: /althus 7ron:, +ustainable a:riculture in 2 D http#$$scienceblo:s&com$tomorro%stable$2 !!$ D$provin:LmalthusL%ron:Lsustaina&php*$$+,9ools available today, includin: plant breedin: and biotechnolo:y, can ma4e presently

unusable soils productive and increase the :enetic potential of individual crops ( enhancin: drou:ht and stress tolerance, for e5ample ( %hile also producin: :ains in yields& G5istin: tools can also internali)e plantsA resistance to disease, and even improve a plantAs nutritional content ( meanin: consumers can :et more nutritional value %ithout increasin: their consumption& Furthermore, modern hi:h( productivity a:riculture minimi)es farmersA impact on the environment & Failure to embrace these technolo:ies %ill result in further destruction of remainin: forests& Adoption of technolo:ies that produce more output from fe%er resources has been hu:ely successful from an economic standpoint # prior to the price spi4e in 2 B, there %as a !D (year do%n%ard trend in the
real price of food& 9he 'ury is still out on %hether the lon:(term do%n%ard trend %ill resume, prices %ill flatten out on a ne% hi:her plateau, or they %ill trend up%ard in the future& 9he 4ey is investin: in research in the public and private sectors to increase a:ricultural productivity faster than :lobal demand :ro%s& Kon: a:o, 1ritish scholar 9homas /althus predicted that the human population %ould eventually out:ro%

its ability to feed itself& ;o%ever, /althus has been proven %ron: for more than t%o centuries precisely because he underestimated the po%er of a:ricultural research and technolo:y to increase productivity faster than

Nuclear War MICHIGAN 7WS 2013 10*/221 demand& 9here is no more reason for /althus to be ri:ht in the 2!st century than he %as in the !?th or 2 th ( but only if %e %or4 to support, not impede, continued a:ricultural research and adoption of ne% technolo:ies around the %orld& -mp&r&call' %en&e% (uman %e+elopment sol+es W&s( 10, %riter for Allian)(Qladish, 7ho8s Afraid of 9homas /althusH =lobal p
22@*$$+,-

! October 2 ! by Qaldis 7ish http#$$4no%led:e&allian)&com$H

0one of the troublin: predictions about overpopulation and :lobal starvation have come to pass& +o should %e still be %orried about too many people on GarthH 9he specter of too many people and not enou:h food has haunted scientists and philosophers since at least the time of Aristotle& 9he most famous is 9homas /althus, %ho in !E?B :rimly predicted that population :ro%th %ould outpace food production, resultin: in human death and misery& 9he Cndustrial -evolution and ne% a:ricultural techniMues durin: the !?th century, ho%ever, helped prevent a ma'or :lobal starvation& Over !D years later, Paul -& Ghrlich published a bestsellin: boo4 called <9he Population 1omb,< in %hich he pro'ected the starvation of hundreds of millions durin: the !?E s(B s& 7hile the %orld sa% some devastatin: famines durin: those decadesJin 1an:ladesh and Gthiopia, for e5ampleJthey %ere not on the :lobal scale that Ghrlich had predicted& 1ut even after history proved /althus and Ghrlich %ron:, theories about
the dan:ers of overpopulation still capture the public interest& Jared 6iamond, author of the bestseller <2ollapse<, says humanity still faces a perilous <population e5plosion< in the comin: decades& ;is boo4 describes the bloody events in -%anda, one of the %orldAs most densely populated countries, durin: the !?? s to illustrate %hat can happen %hen population :ro%th conver:es %ith problems li4e environmental de:radation and food shorta:es& 6iffusin: the population bomb /althus, Ghrlich, and 6iamond all have their critics, mainly economists and theorists %ho deny that population :ro%th ne:atively affects Muality of life& One of them is 3&+& political economist 0icholas Gberstadt, %ho ar:ues that overpopulation alone is not to

blame for poor livin: conditions& =lobal livin: standards , he notes, have improved dramatically durin: the 2 th century despite a near(Muadruplin: of the human population& <Cn most peopleAs minds, the notions of Aoverpopulation,A
Aovercro%din:,A or Atoo many peopleA are associated %ith ima:es of hun:ry children, unchec4ed disease, sMualid livin: conditions, and a%ful slums,< %rites Gberstadt& <1ut the proper name for those conditions is human poverty&< 2ountries li4e 9ai%an, +outh >orea, or the

0etherlands sho% that densely populated countries can prosper as %ell & 0onetheless, concerns that population :ro%th
obstructs development have inspired lar:e(scale family plannin: measures since the !?D s& Cn !?F?, the 30 created the 30 Fund for Population Activities (30FPA*, %hich supports family plannin: initiatives %orld%ide& Cn the late !?E s, the 2hinese :overnment introduced its famous one(child( per(family policy& 7hile many Muestion %hether such schemes are humane, the policy clearly slo%ed do%n 2hinese population :ro%th to the e5tent that Cndia %ill soon be the %orldAs most populous country&

Countr&es "&ll cooperate o+er foo% $ur)er et alL ! (6evelopment Gconomics, 2orrespondin: author, 7a:enin:en 3niversity (>ees, =overnance of the %orld food system and
crisis prevention http#$$%%%&stuur:roepta&nl$rapporten$Foodshoc4(%eb&pdf * $$+,1oth Guropean %ater and a:ricultural policies are based on the belief that there %ill al%ays be cheap food aplenty on the %orld mar4et& A recent 1ritish report 2" reflects this optimism& Althou:h production is no% more prone to %orld mar4et price shoc4s, their effects on farm incomes are softened by e5tensive income supports (van Gic4hout et al& 2 E*& Garlier, in a 2 " report, a Guropean :roup of a:ricultural economists %rote# Food security

is no lon:er a prime ob'ective of Guropean food and a:ricultural policy& 9here is no credible threat to the availability of the basic in:redients of human nutrition from domestic and forei:n sources & Cf there is a food security threat it is the possible disruption of supplies by natural disasters or catastrophic terrorist action& 9he main response necessary for such possibilities is the appropriate contin:ency plannin: and co(ordination bet%een the 2ommission and /ember +tates (Anania et al& 2 "*& Gurope, it appears, feels rather sure of itself, and does not %orry about a potential food crisis& 7e are also not a%are of any special measures on standby& 0evertheless a fled:lin: Guropean internal security has been called into bein: that

can be deployed should (food* crises stri4e& 9he /aastricht 9reaty (!??2* created a Muasi(decision(ma4in: platform to respond to transboundary threats& +ince ?$!! the definition of %hat constitutes a threat has been broadened and the protection capacity reinforced& Cn the +olidarity 6eclaration of 2 " member states promised to stand by each other in the event of a terrorist attac4, natural disaster or human(made calamity (the Guropean +ecurity +trate:y of 2 "*& G5perimental forms of cooperation are tried that leave member(state soverei:nty intact, such as

poolin: of resources& 9he G3 co(operates in the area of health and food safety but its mechanisms remain decentrslised by dint of the principle of
subsidiarity& 9he silo mentality bet%een the Guropean directorates is also unhelpful, leadin: to 1abylonian confusion& 9hus, in the conte5t of forest fires and floods the Gnvironment 6= refers to ^civil protection8& 9he Guropean +ecurity and 6efence Policy( G+6P* of 2 F, %hich is hoped to build a brid:e bet%een internal and e5ternal security policy, on the other hand refers to ^crisis mana:ement8, %hile the ^security8 concept mainly pertains to pandemics (-hinard et al& 2 B# D!2, 1oin et al& 2 B# @ F*&

,ra%e sol+es an' &mpacts Hansc( 0? +enior Associate, 2enter for the study of mi:ration& FOO6, 039-C9CO0 A06 KCQGKC;OO6 P-GPA-G60G++ FO- A PA06G/C2
C0FK3G0ZA 6C+A+9G- =3C6A02G FO- KO7(C02O/G 2O309-CG+ +teve ;ansch ;2P Food +ecurity 7or4in: =roup! June !D, 2 B http#$$pdf&usaid&:ov$pdfLdocs$P0A632DE&pdf* $$+,9he ma'or reason food shorta:es have become less lethal in modern history is the ability of :lobal food supplies

to buffer any individual re:ion, that is, food has become fluid enou:h that a rise in food prices any%here is met by

Nuclear War MICHIGAN 7WS 2013 107/221 increased supply from the outside& A pandemic %ill de(couple that connection& Food price rises in urban areas %ill be balanced by food price declines in nearby rural areasR they %ill not eMuilibrate

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.&l Depen%enc'
Mar#et floo%&n) (as no &mpact on t(e pr&ce 2 too man' alt causes Matacon&s 11 Attorney, re:ular contributor (6ou:, +trate:ic Petroleum -eserve -elease ;ad 0o Cmpact On Oil Prices, Outside the 1elt%ay, E(F(2 !!, http#$$%%%&outsidethebelt%ay&com$strate:ic(petroleum(reserve( release(had(no(impact(on(oil(prices$*$$16+ About t%o %ee4s a:o, the 3nited +tates and several other countries announced that they %ere releasin: oil reserves on the mar4et in an effort to ma4e up for supply disruptions caused by the civil unrest in Kibya& 9he 3&+& contribution to this release %as some " , , barrels from the +trate:ic Petroleum -eserve& As predicted by many, that action has had absolutely no impact on the price of oil# 2rude raced hi:her 9uesday as ener:y bulls pushed 0yme5 oil bac4 to%ard the [! (a(barrel mar4, prices last seen before %orld :overnments said they %ould release crude from their reserves last month& 7est 9e5as Cntermediate 'umped 2&! percent to [?F&B? a barrel on the 0e% Por4 /ercantile G5chan:e, decidedly above the [?@&@D close of June 22, the day before the announcement on the release of F million barrels from reserves& 1rent crude on the C2G futures e5chan:e finished [2&2D hi:her at [!!"&F" a barrel, and 'ust belo% the June 22 hi:h of [!!@&2!& 1rent touched [!!@&@@ 9uesday& C thin4 %e could probably test that [! mar4 a:ain& C also thin4 for it to be sustained up there, you8d have to have somethin: a little more :oin: on, li4e :eopolitical problems or some demand pic4up, said Anthony =risanti, president of =-Z Gner:y& +ome traders said the price :ains 9uesday came from speculation that demand could ti:hten if the %orld economy improves, but others pointed to momentum and technical factors& 9he 79C Au:ust futures contract bro4e above its 2 (day movin: avera:e of [?F&!B& On June 22, the day before the announcement by the Cnternational Gner:y A:ency that crude %ould be released from strate:ic reserves, it %as at [?D&@!& Ct hit a lo% close of [? &B@ on June 2E& 0one of this should be surprisin:& After all, the amount of oil that %as released %as infinitesimal in comparison to the amount of oil consumed by the 3nited +tates, not to mention the %orld as a %hole, in a sin:le day& 9he idea that such a small release %ould have anythin: other than a temporary impact on prices is absurd, and brin:s to mind a:ain the Muestion of e5actly %hy the nations of the %orld too4 this step %hen it so painfully obvious that it %ouldn8t %or4&

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.&l !r&ces
!r&ces are up %eman% &s &ncreas&n) A! 722 (7hy oil prices are at their hi:hest level in !@ months, 2hristian +cience /onitor, E(2(2 !", http#$$%%%&csmonitor&com$1usiness$Katest(0e%s(7ires$2 !"$ E 2$7hy(oil(prices(are(at(their(hi:hest( level(in(!@(months*$$16+ 9he price of oil neared [! 2 a barrel for the first time since /ay last year as G:yptAs political crisis intensified, raisin: the ris4 of disruptions to /ideast supplies& 1enchmar4 crude for Au:ust delivery %as up [2&2 to [! !&B a barrel early 7ednesday mornin:, 1an:4o4 time, in electronic tradin: on the 0e% Por4 /ercantile G5chan:e& 9he contract :ained [!&F!, or !&F percent, to close at [??&F on 9uesday in 0e% Por4& Gmbattled G:yptian President /ohammed /orsi vo%ed not to resi:n hours before a deadline to yield to the demands of millions of protesters or see the military suspend the constitution, disband parliament and install a ne% leadership& 9he Cslamist leader demanded that the po%erful armed forces %ithdra% their ultimatum, sayin: he re'ected all <dictates< J from home or abroad& Outside on the streets, the sense that both sides are ready to fi:ht to the end sharpened, %ith clashes bet%een /orsiAs supporters and opponents 4illin: at least 2" people, most of them in a sin:le incident of fi:htin: outside 2airo 3niversity& G:ypt is not an oil producer but its control of the +ue) canal, one of the %orldAs busiest shippin: lanes %hich lin4s the /editerranean %ith the -ed +ea, :ives it a crucial role in maintainin: :lobal ener:y supplies& 9raders are also a%aitin: the Gner:y 6epartmentAs %ee4ly report on 3&+& stoc4piles of crude oil on 7ednesday and e5pect the fi:ures to sho% an increase in demand& 6ata for the %ee4 endin: June 2B is e5pected to sho% a dra%do%n of " million barrels in crude oil stoc4s, accordin: to a survey of analysts by Platts, the ener:y information arm of /c=ra%(;ill 2os& 1rent crude %as up [!&@D to [! D&@D a barrel on the C2G futures e5chan:e in Kondon& Cn other ener:y futures tradin: on 0yme5# J 7holesale :asoline %as up "&@ cents to [2&B!E a :allon& J ;eatin: oil added @&D cents to [2&?@E a :allon& J 0atural :as %as do%n &D cent at ["&F@? per !, cubic feet&

!r&ces o+er Q10*F futures an% (&)( %eman% an% fall&n) suppl' Saefon) an% Mo9ee 7210 ( covered the commodities sector for /ar4et7atch for more than ! yearsR mar4ets reporter based in KA (/yra and 2arla, Oil sur:es past [! F to close at !D(month hi:h 3&+& supply dropsR prices tap intraday hi:h after FO/2 minutes, /ar4et 7atch 7+J, E(! (2 !", http#$$%%%&mar4et%atch&com$story$oil(prices(top(! @(on(sharp(inventory(decline(2 !"( E( ?*$$16+ Oil futures sur:ed past [! F a barrel on 7ednesday to score their hi:hest settlement in !D months after %ee4ly 3&+& supplies dropped by more than t%ice the amount analysts e5pected& Prices briefly touched an intraday hi:h of [! F&FF a barrel shortly after the Federal -eserve released minutes of its June monetary policy meetin:& 2rude oil for Au:ust delivery 'umped [2&??, or 2&?I to settle at [! F&D2 a barrel on the 0e% Por4 /ercantile G5chan:e& 1ased on the most(active futures contracts, that %as the hi:hest settlement since late /arch 2 !2, accordin: to Fact+et data& Au:ust 1rent oil rose E cents, or &FI, to [! B&D! a barrel on C2G Futures J a level not seen for a most(active contract since April of this year& 9he price differential bet%een 1rent and 7est 9e5as Cntermediate crudes has narro%ed to belo% [" a barrel, the lo%est levels since 2 ! & Ct traded above [2 in February& 0yme5 crude futures %ere tradin: at 'ust above [! D ri:ht before the 3&+& Gner:y Cnformation Administration reported a ?&? million(barrel decline in crude stoc4piles for the %ee4 ended July D& Analysts polled by Platts %ere loo4in: for a "&B million(barrel decline& 9he latest decline follo%s a decline of more than ! million barrels reported by the GCA for the %ee4 ended June 2B& 9he American Petroleum Cnstitute late 9uesday had reported a ?(million(barrel drop for last %ee4& 2rude supply levels are still above the five(year avera:es, but the e5pectations of further inventory dra%s in the %ee4s to come due to the movement of crude out of 2ushin:, O4la&, the tradin: hub for 0yme5 oil futures, are helpin: prices :o hi:her, said 9ariM Zahir, mana:in: member at 9yche 2apital Advisors& +till, crude has technically bro4en out to the upside but are :ettin: to%ard short(term overbou:ht levels, he said& 7e %ouldn8t be surprised to see some profit ta4in: at these levels& 9he GCA also said 7ednesday that :asoline supplies fell by 2&F million barrels %hile distillate stoc4piles, %hich include heatin: oil, increased by " million barrels& =asoline stoc4piles %ere e5pected to rise by !&2 million barrels, %hile forecasts called for an increase of !&@ million barrels for distillates& On 0yme5, Au:ust :asoline -1," ( &?BI rose ? cents, or "I, to almost ["& 2 a :allon, and Au:ust

Nuclear War MICHIGAN 7WS 2013 110/221 heatin: oil rose nearly 2 cents, or &DI, to [" a :allon& 1oth reached [" for the first time since April& -oundin: out action in the ener:y mar4et, Au:ust natural :as 0=,!" (!&2@I rose 2 cents, or &FI, to ["&FB per million 1ritish thermal units& 9he GCA %ill release its %ee4ly data on natural(:as supplies on 9hursday& Analysts polled by Platts forecast an increase of bet%een B billion cubic feet and B@ billion cubic feet& 9he oil mar4et also mulled the minutes from Fed8s most recent interest(rate meetin:, hopin: to find hints on ho% soon the central ban4 %ill ease bac4 on its bond(buyin: pro:ram& Fed 2hairman 1en 1ernan4e %as also due to spea4 at a conference later 7ednesday afternoon& .&l pr&ces lo" no" @ee% 12, (/athe% /&, 2an +audi Arabia Flood the /ar4etH, 9he Forei:ner 2012-4-6 ,, http#$$ala'nabee&%ordpress&com$2 !2$ F$ @$can(saudi(arabia(flood(the(mar4et$*$$16+ Fast for%ard to /ay 2 !2 and oil is still priced at over [! per barrel, Cran8s nuclear pro:ram is movin: for%ard, and the +audis have not moved a:ainst the oil mar4ets& 9he +audis haven8t moved a:ainst the oil mar4etsH Kast year they pumped about B&D million barrels a day (b$d*& 1ecause of disruptions and an5iety surroundin: a possible stri4e on Cran, they are no% pumpin: ! million b$d, all in an effort to push do%n prices& 2ooper says the +audis mi:ht flood the mar4et in order to turn the scre%s on Cran & 1ut the +audis are already floodin: the mar4et# accordin: to the Cnternational Gner:y A:ency, supply is no% outpacin: demand by !&D million barrels on a daily basisrou:hly the number by %hich -iyadh increased output this year& 9hey8ve also promised to 4eep producin: at this rate for the near future& And Cranian authorities aren8t happy about it& On /ay 2?, Cran8s OPG2 =overnor /ohammad Ali >hatibi blamed +audi Arabia for producin: too much& Cncreasin: production by some OPG2 members, especially +audi Arabia, %ill create instability in the mar4et and %ill li4ely lead to a serious decline in oil prices %hich undermines OPG28s :oals, he said& 7e can8t :ive the +audis all the credit& Oil prices are declinin: because the :lobal economy is sputterin:& 1ut %here %ould prices be %ithout +audi Arabia8s additional !&D million barrels a dayH 1rentthe Guropean benchmar4 that +audi oil prices are tied tono% sits at [?B& 9he +audi tar:et price mi:ht be [! , accordin: to Oil /inister Ali 0aimi, but there8s no indication -iyadh %ill cut bac4 production soon& Cran, and not +audi Arabia, %as OPG28s preeminent po%er bro4er \in the mid(!?E s]& Althou:h the +hah %as a 3&+& ally, he had
anta:oni)ed 7ashin:ton by en:ineerin: the !?E" oil shoc4 that led to the s%ampin: of 7estern economies %ith debt, unemployment, and inflation, and spar4ed fears of ban4in: collapses and the ban4ruptcy of 0A9O allies in southern Gurope& Cran %as not the preeminent po%er bro4er of OPG2 in !?E" even if it %as a ma'or producer& +audi production %as still hi:her that year& And the +hah did not en:ineer the !?E" oil shoc4& >in: Faisal of +audi Arabia, %ho %as 4no%n for bein: preoccupied %ith the Palestinian condition and a staunch opponent of Zionism, led the embar:o effort after the 3&+& sided %ith Csrael in the Pom >ippur 7ar (see 6aniel Per:in8s account in 2hapter 2? of 9he Pri)e*& 9he +hah 'oined OPG2 members in hi4in: the posted price of oil in October !?E"& 1ut he 4ept production hi:h, sold to the 3&+& and Csrael, and did not 'oin the embar:o& 7ashin:ton %as certainly disappointed %ith the +hah because he refused to push do%n prices& 1ut it %as the embar:oJcombined %ith the devaluation of the dollar in !?E"Jthat shoo4 the mar4et, hurt 7estern economies, and drove inflation& 9he +hah cashed in& ;e did not create the crisis& Cn the %a4e of the Arab +prin: unrest across the /iddle Gast, the +audi :overnment announced that it planned to increase state spendin: by at least one third and pump more than [!" billion bac4 into the domestic economy& 9his raises the ris4s of monetary overheatin: and inflation& An estimated [F billion %ill be spent on forei:n study scholarships alone& An5ious to stabili)e the emer:in: re:ional order, the +audis have poured at least [D billion in loans and :rants into G:ypt to prop up that country8s forei:n currency and military :overnment& 1illions more are bein: spent to combat Cran8s vaultin: ambitions in Kebanon and CraM& 9hen there is the [F billion arms deal concluded %ith the 3&+& in 2 ! J the bi::est of its 4ind& 7ho %ill pay for the billions in %elfare subsidies and hi:h(tech %eaponsH 9he +audis aren8t facin: a massive bud:et crunch& 9he [!" billion pac4a:e announced by >in: Abdullah last year, for instance, includes housin: and other pro'ects that %ill ta4e the better part of a decade to complete& /onetary aid :iven to forei:n countries is also a slo%(:oin: process (if it is ever delivered*& Just as4 the G:yptians, %ho only recently secured a +audi aid pac4a:e of [!&D billion, even thou:h it %as promised last summer& 9he arms deal is another e5ample of :radual spendin: mista4en for splur:in:& 9he deal may be %orth [F billion but that covers the life(cycle of the eMuipment sold& 9hat sum %ill be spread out over the ne5t decade& Cn the meantime, +audi coffers %ill only :ro%& Kast year they posted a bud:et surplus of [B! billion even thou:h the >in:8s e5panded %elfare pro:rams had already increased %a:es and benefits for many +audis& C can8t :uess %hat +audi Arabia8s bud:et surplus %ill be this year& 1ut for the first si5 months of 2 !2, they pumped ! million b$d %hen the mar4et8s as4in: price hovered %ell over [! & C bet the 2 !2 surplus %ill be si:nificantly hi:her than 2 !!& Cran should be more %orried about declinin: prices than +audi Arabia& 9he C/F no% estimates that 9ehran needs [!!E a barrel in order to balance its bud:et& -euters, citin: national authorities and the C/F, says +audi Arabia8s brea4(even price per barrel is only [E!& As C noted in my column earlier this month, the +audis are not only producin: oil at full capacity, they are also stoc4pilin: much of their surplus production& 3ntil they decide %hether to hold on to it or flood the mar4et %ith it, the +audi oil s%ord remains sheathed for no% and the :lobal :ame of ris4 continues& 9he +audis are not producin: at full capacity by anyone8s measure& 9hey insist their ma5 capacity is !2&D million b$d& /any thin4 this is too :enerous& 2ritics say !!&? million b$d is probably more accurate& As of

9he +audis are stoc4pilin: oil in order to calm the mar4et and prepare for the seasonal rise in demand that comes %ith the summer air conditionin: season& 1ut they can only flood the mar4et if they have buyers& +ince the mar4et is already %ell( supplied, buyers have little reason to buy more, and so the only %ay to manipulate supply(demand dynamics and push do%n prices %ould be to offer discounts %hich ma4e un%anted oil more appealin:& 9here8s little reason to believe the +audis are preparin: for a fire sale, ho%ever& 6iscountin: is tric4y business because other customers may demand the same treatment& Cran is in a very different position& 9hey no% appear to be stoc4pilin: because they lac4
today, they8re only producin: ! million b$d, %hich means the +audis could still ramp up production by nearly t%o million b$d if %e stic4 %ith the pessimistic assessment&

other options& 9he Cslamic -epublic is reportedly storin: millions of barrels of oil offshore on crude tan4ers because they cannot find customers& 6omestic stora:e must be nearin: capacity if it is not already ma5ed out& Cran may ultimately sell those distressed car:oes at a discount in order to ma4e room for future production %hich they are afraid to shut in& Cran %ill probably flood the mar4et %ith cheap car:oes before the +audis do&

!r&ces are fall&n) "&t( %eman% no" Saefon) an% Mo9ee 7226 covered the commodities sector for /ar4et7atch for more than ! yearsR mar4ets reporter based in KA (/yra and 2arla, Oil futures mar4 lo%est close in almost t%o %ee4s 2hina data dulls demand outloo4R 3&+& supply falls a fourth %ee4, /ar4et 7atch 7+J, E(2@(2 !", http#$$%%%&mar4et%atch&com$story$oil(falls(as(china(data(disappoints(2 !"( E(2@*$$16+

Nuclear War MICHIGAN 7WS 2013 111/221 Oil futures mar4ed their lo%est close in almost t%o %ee4s 7ednesday, as a %ea4 readin: for manufacturin: activity in 2hina and disappointin: earnin:s from 2aterpillar Cnc&, an indicator for the %orld economy, dulled the outloo4 for ener:y demand& Prices had briefly pared losses after a 3&+& :overnment report sho%ed a fourth( %ee4ly decline in crude supplies, but total inventories %ere still %ell above the five(year avera:e& Oil for +eptember delivery 2K3" ` &!2I dropped [!&B@, or !&EI, to settle at [! D&"? a barrel on the 0e% Por4 /ercantile G5chan:e& 9he settlement %as the lo%est for a most(active contract since July !!, accordin: to Fact+et data&On the C2G Futures e5chan:e, 1rent crude for +eptember delivery 3>#K2O3" ` &DFI finished at [! E&!? a barrel, do%n [!&2", or !&!I& 9he price action seems not much about inventories, but more about 2hina and 2aterpillar 2A9 (!&?"I and the overall tone of :lobal industrial demand for fuels, said -ichard ;astin:s, a macro strate:ist at =lobal ;unter +ecurities& 9here8s a lot of bid in the oil mar4et that loo4ed li4e it %as ready to release some steam, and then you have an incident in the =ulf of /e5ico from that natural(:as ri: and it raises Muestions a:ain about future re:ulations in the =ulf, he said& 9he natural(:as %ell off the coast of Kouisiana that ble% out on 9uesday also cau:ht fire, the 1ureau of +afety and Gnvironmental Gnforcement said on its %ebsite, but natural :as has continued to flo% from the %ell& +ome of the latest :lobal economic fi:ures bode ill for the ener:y demand& 7e have had a decent bout of manufacturin: data out of the euro )one, %ith the advance (flash* number sho%in: e5pansion for the first time in t%o years, said /att +mith, a commodity analyst at +chneider Glectric, in a daily note& ;o%ever, to counter this optimism, another %ea4 data point out of 2hina \&&&] has sho%n deepenin: contraction from its manufacturin: sector& -ead about Platts report on 2hina8s June oil demand& 9he so(called flash version of ;+128s 2hinese manufacturin: purchasin: mana:ers8 Cnde5 dropped to an !!(month lo%, at @E&E& Any readin: belo% D indicates contraction, and many analysts cited e5pectations for the inde5 to remain at or near June8s @B&2 level& And loo4in: ahead to a final version of the July P/C, >im Gn: +ecurities strate:ist Andre% +ullivan told clients there is scope for a further do%nside revision& Cn the 3&+&, data %as some%hat supportive for ener:y demand& 9he flash manufacturin: purchasin: mana:ers8 inde5 in July rose to its hi:hest level in four months, and 3&+& ne% home sales in June sur:ed to a level not seen in more than five years&

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.&l Sp&lls
Mar&ne l&fe &s res&l&ent rap&% repro%uct&on I,.!A 10 (9he Cnternational 9an4er O%ners Federation Kimited, February ! th, 2 ! , http#$$%%%&itopf&com$marine(spills$effects$recovery$* /arine or:anisms have varyin: de:rees of natural resilience to chan:es in their habitats& 9he natural adaptations of populations of animals and plants to cope %ith environmental stress, combined %ith their breedin: strate:ies, provide important mechanisms for copin: %ith the daily and seasonal fluctuations in their habitats and for recoverin: from predation and other stochastic events& +ome natural phenomena can be hi:hly destructive& 9he short(term po%er of
hurricanes and tsunamis can easily be appreciated, as can the dama:e they cause& 9he cyclical Gl 0ico phenomenon has ma'or lon:(term conseMuences for marine or:anisms, seabirds and marine mammals throu:hout the entire Pacific Ocean& Or:anisms suffer under such onslau:hts, but after %hat

is often severe disruption and %idespread mortality, the marine populations re(establish themselves over a period of time and this process constitutes natural recovery& An important reproductive strate:y for many marine or:anisms is the production of vast numbers of e::s and larvae %hich are released into the plan4ton and are %idely distributed by currents& 9his mechanism has evolved to ta4e ma5imum advanta:e of available space and resources in marine habitats and to deal %ith e&:& predation& Cn some cases, only one or t%o individuals in a million actually survive
throu:h to adulthood& A less common reproductive strate:y that is :enerally restricted to lon:(lived species that do not reach se5ual maturity for many years is to produce relatively fe%, %ell(developed, offsprin:& 9hese species are better adapted to stable habitats and environments and as a result, their populations are li4ely to ta4e much lon:er to recover from the pressures of localised mortality e&:& the effects of an oil spill& 7hilst there may be considerable debate over %hat constitutes recovery, there is a %idespread acceptance that natural variability in systems ma4es :ettin: bac4 to the e5act pre(spill condition unli4ely, and most current definitions of recovery focus on the re(establishment of a community of plants and animals %hich are characteristic of the habitat and are functionin: normally in terms of biodiversity and productivity&

,(e Gulf .&l Sp&ll pro+es t(e oceans are res&l&ent an% can 3ounce 3ac# Han%"er# 11 (1rian, <=ulf Oil +pill Anniversary# -esilience Amid 3n4no%ns,< 0ational =eo:raphic 0e%s, April !?th, 2
http#$$ne%s&national:eo:raphic&com$ne%s$2 !!$ @$!! @2 (:ulf(oil(spill(anniversary(year(later(science(nation(environment$*
0ational =eo:raphic ma:a)ine&* 1ut many

!!,

On the first anniversary of the =ulf oil spill, scientists caution that it could ta4e years to understand the full scope of the disaster& (+ee photos of the =ulf oil spill in

are encoura:ed because the dama:e could have been far %orseJand nature is already sho%in: si:ns of resilience& On April 2 , 2 ! , a massive e5plosion roc4ed the 9ransocean oil ri: 6eep%ater ;ori)on, a state(of(the art mobile offshore

drillin: platform at %or4 on a %ell in the =ulf of /e5ico& Gleven %or4ers %ere 4illed by the blast and survivors had 'ust minutes to flee an inferno that %ould soon burn and sin4 the ri:& 9he accident unleashed a torrent of oil that be:an roarin: from an under:round /acondo reservoir into the =ulf %aters& 6urin: the first fe% frantic days of the 1P crisis that became the %orst oil spill in 3&+& history, e5perts had a hard time determinin: %hat %as happenin:Jmuch less %hat the spillAs ultimate environmental and economic conseMuences mi:ht be& (+ee satellite pictures of the =ulf oil spillAs evolution&* As people around the %orld fi5ated on oil spe%in: from a pipe ! mile (!&F 4ilometers* beneath the =ulfAs surface, scientists clambered to discern 'ust ho% much %as :ushin: out& Gstimates climbed from !, barrels a day to !2, barrels to F2, barrels a day& Gven less certain %as ho% the dama:ed %ellhead %ould finally be plu::edJand for a %hile, people feared the lea4 could continue for years& Authorities finally capped it in July& A

spill that started %ith the tra:ic loss of life soon %rou:ht ma'or environmental devastation over hu:e re:ion of the =ulf& 6isturbin: ima:es appeared daily of oiled %ildlife, iridescent surface slic4s, over%helmed cleanup %or4ers, fouled beaches, burnin: oil fires, and blac4ened %etlands& 9he dama:e from nearly five million barrels of oil %as very real, yet many e5pert predictions missed their mar4s& ;urricanes didnAt drive enormous Muantities of oil ashore, :iant dead )ones didnAt materiali)e, and oil didnAt round the tip of Florida to roc4et up the Gast 2oast via the =ulf +tream& Fisheries no% appear poised to rebound instead of sufferin: the barren years or decades some feared& And /other 0ature had her o%n surprises in store, sho%casin: an ability to fi:ht bac4 a:ainst the spill and, later, to bounce bac4 from the dama:eJat least in the short(term&

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@ene"a3les
No rene"a3le a%opt&on coal ener)' &s %om&nant an% no one7s &n+est&n) &n clean tec( Hutc(ensF 13 +enior 9echnical 7riter at Ambit Gner:y in 6allas, 9e5as %ho spent years speciali)in: in life savin: en:ineerin: pro'ects for the 3+ 6epartment of 6efense (Kei:h, Adoption of 2lean Gner:y 9oo +lo% to Kimit =lobal 7armin:, 9he =reen Optimistic, @$2 $2 !", http#$$%%%&:reenoptimistic&com$2 !"$ @$2 $adoption(of(clean(ener:y(too(slo%(to(limit(:lobal( %armin:$O&3e5%71a9PFB* $$ /+ On 7ednesday, the Cnternational Gner:y A:ency (CGA* said that lo%(carbon ener:y development is pro:ressin: far too slo%ly to have any limitin: effect on :lobal %armin:& =overnments are not ta4in: Muic4 enou:h action, and po%er :eneration is still dominated by the fossil fuel industry& G5perts have %arned that the :oal of limitin: the :lobal temperature rise to less than 2 de:rees durin: this century is Muic4ly disappearin: & /aria van der ;oeven, the CGA8s e5ecutive director, said that a lac4 of action by %orld leaders has led to the stall of %idespread adaptation of clean ener:y& Cn fact, 1loomber: 0e% Gner:y Finance reported that :lobal clean ener:y investment %as at its lo%est level in four years in the first Muarter of 2 !"& 2oal(fired ener:y :re% by @DI bet%een 2 and 2 ! , a rate that far outpaced the 2DI :ro%th in non(fossil fuel ener:y durin: the same period & +hale :as technolo:y has had some effect on
people s%itchin: from fossil fuels to natural :as in the 3+, but ener:y in Gurope is still primarily fossil fuel driven&

Mult&ple structural 3arr&ers to >S rene"a3le a%opt&on DonerF 7 professor in re:ulatory policy studies at the Cllinois +tate 3niversity (Jeremiah, 1arriers to Adoption of -ene%able Gner:y 9echnolo:y, Cnstitute for -e:ulatory Policy +tudies, /ay 2 E, http#$$%%%&irps&ilstu&edu$research$documents$C-P+6oner7or4in:Paper D E E&pdf* $$ /+
9he three Guropean countries and Japan %ere chosen because each country has had si:nificant success in implementin: rene%able ener:y technolo:y and an e5amination of their policies is important to determine %hat type of policy structure creates :ro%th in the rene%able ener:y sector& One item

that needs to be mentioned %hen comparin: the si)e of the rene%able ener:y sector in each of these countries %ith the 3nited +tates is that the avera:e electricity prices in each of these countries is hi:her than in the 3&+&, %hich %ould reduce the price premium on rene%ables and increase the li4elihood of their implementation & 9he
country %ith the lar:est percenta:e of their electricity :enerated by non(hydro rene%ables is 6enmar4, %here in 2 " 2!I of their electricity %as :enerated by %ind po%er& From !??F to 2 ! 6enmar4 e5perienced " I annual :ro%th in installed %ind capacity& 9he 6anish :overnment %ith their Gner:y 2! pro:ram has set a :oal of increasin: %ind capacity to D,D /7 by 2 " , %hich %ould represent D I of total electricity demand in 2 " & 9he policies enacted by the 6anish :overnment over the last thirty years have succeeded in increasin: both the capacity and mar4et share of rene%able ener:y& (+ee Appendi5 Fi:& E* Cn !?E? the :overnment be:an offerin: an investment subsidy of up to " I of the cost of %ind turbines and solar panels& 9his investment subsidy %ent directly to reimbursin: a fi5ed percenta:e of the costs of the investment, %here in the 3&+& the investment

subsidy is actually an investment ta5 credit& A direct investment subsidy instead of an investment ta5 credit means that investors develop rene%able ener:y pro'ects to promote rene%able ener:y instead of attemptin: to reduce their ta5 burden& 9he 4ey to the consistent yearly :ro%th of the %ind industry in 6enmar4 has been that the production subsidy has remained the same& 9his has provided investors %ith the necessary incentives to invest in the manufacturin: of %ind turbine and turbine components, %hich has led to all %ind capacity installed in 6emar4 to be manufactured by domestic companies& 6anish companies also provide a si:nificant percenta:e of the :lobal supply of %ind turbines, and in 2 " they supplied "2I of all installed capacity :lobally& 9he 3&+& on the other hand has relied on a Production 9a5 2redit (P92*, %hich has to be periodically rene%ed by 2on:ress& 9his has caused the installation of %ind capacity in the 3&+& to have lar:e fluctuations dependin: on the P92 & 6urin: periods %hen there is a P92 the installed %ind capacity in the 3&+& increases :reatlyR ho%ever, %hen the P92 e5pires there is essentially )ero %ind capacity installed& 9he inconsistency of the P92 has not :iven investors the :uarantees needed to ma4e investments in the manufacturin: of %ind ener:y components& 9he development of %ind ener:y pro'ects in 6enmar4 has also not faced the same level of local opposition that pro'ects in the 3&+& has, and in particular Cllinois & 9he main reason is
that the %ind industry in 6emar4 has developed %ith a system of cooperative o%nership of turbines, %here farmers and lando%ners are :iven an o%nership interest in pro'ects& Cndividuals or local cooperatives o%n about t%o(thirds of the %ind turbines in 6enmar4, %hich has reduced local opposition and :iven voters a vested interest in the %ind industry&

Mar#et 3arr&ers preclu%e "&%esprea% rene"a3le opt&on $ro"nF 1 Gner:y Gfficiency and -ene%able Gner:y Pro:ram, Oa4 -id:e 0ational Kaboratory (/arilyn, /ar4et failures and barriers as a basis for clean ener:y policies, Gner:y Policy, @$!2$2 !, http#$$%%%&sciencedirect&com&pro5y&lib&umich&edu$science$article$pii$+ " !@2!D ! FE2* $$ /+

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2&!& 2ase studies of individual technolo:ies /any

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different case studies could be cited sho%in: that consumers and businesses often choose not to purchase hi:hly cost(effective ener:y technolo:y & 9he technolo:ies in these e5amples %ere clearly superior to the technolo:ies bein: replaced and no si:nificant ^^hidden costs88 to the consumer could be identified& Gfficient ma:netic ballasts for fluorescent li:htin: %ere commercially available as early as !?EF& 9hey %ere a %ell(tested technolo:y, %ith performance characteristics eMual to or better than standard ballasts by the early !?B s& 1y !?BE, five states includin: 2alifornia and 0e% Por4 had prohibited the sale of standard ballasts& 1ut the remainin: three(Muarters of the population chose standard ballasts over efficient ballasts by a ratio of ! (to(! , even thou:h the efficient ma:netic ballast paid bac4 its investment in less than t%o
years for virtually all commercial buildin:s (>oomey et al&, !??F*& 9he time reMuired to establish retail distribution service net%or4s and to :ain consumer confidence are typical causes of slo% innovation diffusions such as this& (+ince !?? , federal standards have prohibited the sale of the standard ballast&* Cn a more :eneral study of efficient li:htin: investments usin: data from GPA8s =reen Ki:hts Pro:ram, 6e2anio (!??B* has sho%n that there is a lar:e potential for profitable ener:y(savin: investments in li:htin: that is not bein: reali)ed because of impediments that are internal to private and public(sector or:ani)ations& 7hile economic forces play a role, economics alone cannot e5plain the level of investments made in

ener:y(efficient li:htin: pro'ects& Cmpediments to these investments include capital rationin: and lac4 of or:ani)ational re%ards for ener:y mana:ers %ho reduce utility bills & /eier and 7hittier (!?B"* studied a case in %hich
consumers %ere :iven a choice in stores throu:hout the 3nited +tates of t%o refri:erators that %ere identical in all respects e5cept t%o# ener:y efficiency and price& 9he ener:y(efficient model (%hich saved @! 4ilo%att hours per year, more than 2DI of ener:y usa:e* cost [F more than the standard model& 9he ener:y(efficient model %as hi:hly cost(effective in almost all locations of the country& Cn most re:ions, it provided an annual return on investment of about D I& Cn spite of these favorable economics, %hich %ere easily observed by the purchaser, more than half of all purchasers chose the inefficient model& 9he hi:her purchase price of the efficient model %as presumably the principal barrier to its purchase& 9o enable the use of remote controls for televisions in the early !?? s, it became necessary for televisions to consume some amount of po%er continuously& 9ypical televisions %ith remote controls at that time used DE 7 of standby po%er for that purpose& 9he Gner:y +tar television pro:ram %as able to reduce these po%er losses by reMuirin: that televisions Mualifyin: for the Gner:y +tar label must reduce standby po%er to three %atts or less, a savin:s of rou:hly D I& 9he resultin: price increase had a paybac4 period of !2 years for consumers& 1ecause this savin: %as no more than a fe% dollars a year per television, there %as no public outcry for manufacturers to deliver the improvement& At the same time, the a::re:ate savin:s to the nation of %idespread mar4et penetration %as si:nificant& 9hrou:h the labelin: pro:ram, the lac4 of consumer interest could be overcome& About ten ma'or manufacturers no% offer such televisions, and several of them have reduced standby losses to &D 7 (Cnterlaboratory 7or4in: =roup, 2 , 2hapter @*& Cndustrial motor systems represent the lar:est sin:le end use of electricity in the American economy 2"I of 3+ electricity consumption and they present a very substantial ener:y(efficiency potential& 9he results of a recent mar4et assessment involvin: on(site surveys of 2FD industrial facilities document that technolo:ies offerin: a simple paybac4 of " years or less can typically save businesses !!!BI of the ener:y used to drive motors (Yener:y, Cnc&, !??B*& 6OG8s /otor 2hallen:e pro:ram conducts audits, demonstrations and technical assistance to encoura:e the use of proven, cost( effective technolo:ies to improve industrial motor systems& /onitorin: and validation of ener:y use data from these activities confirm the profitability of these investments, underscorin: the lar:e :ap bet%een current practice and potentially economically smart investments& Kimited information, e5pertise, and capital all contribute to the e5istence of this :ap& 2&2& 7hat accounts for the ener:y efficiency :apH 0umerous mar4et failures and

barriers contribute to the efficiency :ap (9able !*& ^^/ar4et failures88 occur %hen there is a fla% in the %ay mar4ets operate& 9hey are conditions of a mar4et that violate one or more of the neoclassical economic assumptions that define an ideal mar4et for products or services such as rational behavior, costless transactions, and perfect information& /ar4et failures can be caused by (!* misplaced incentivesR (2* distortionary fiscal and re:ulatory policies R ("* unpriced costs such as air pollutionR (@* unpriced :oods such as education, trainin:, and technolo:ical advancesR and (D* insufficient and incorrect information
(Jaffe and +tavins, !??@R CP22, !??F*& 1y failin: to account for such mar4et imperfections, assessments of ener:y policies and climate miti:ation options based on neoclassical economic models under( estimate their full ran:e of potential benefit (Kaitner et al&, 2 *& Ct is %idely ar:ued by neoclassical economists that the e5istence of mar4et failures is a prereMuisite for mar4et intervention& ;o%ever, the e5istence of such failures is also seen as an insufficient 'ustification for :overnment involvement& Feasible, lo%(cost policies must be available that can eliminate or compensate for these mar4et failures& ^^/ar4et barriers88 refer to obstacles that are not based on mar4et failures but %hich nonetheless contribute to the slo%

diffusion and adoption of ener:y( efficient innovations (Jaffe and +tavins, !??@R ;irst and 1ro%n, !??

R Kevine et al&, !??D, and 3+ 6epartment of Gner:y, Office of Policy and Cnternational Affairs, !??Fb*& 9o the e5tent that it is in society8s best interest to use its ener:y more efficiently and to reduce emissions from fossil fuel combustion, it is important to understand the full ran:e of obstacles to clean ener:y

technolo:ies& 9hese include# (!* the lo% priority of ener:y issues amon: consumers, (2* capital mar4et imperfections, and ("* incomplete mar4ets for ener:y( efficient features and products& No &nternat&onal a%opt&on cost an% local oppos&t&on /e+&F 13 6avid /& -ubenstein +enior Fello% for Gner:y and the Gnvironment and 6irector of the Pro:ram on Gner:y +ecurity and 2limate 2han:e at the 2ouncil on Forei:n -elations (/ichael, 9he ;idden -is4s of Gner:y Cnnovation, Cssues in +cience and 9echnolo:y Online, 7inter 2 !", http#$$%%%&issues&or:$2?&2$/ichael&html* $$ /+
Alas, the

turn from re:ulation to innovation is not a ma:ic recipe for eliminatin: conflict over domestic or international policy, or even for si:nificantly reducin: it& Cnstead, it %ill create ne% fi:hts in ne% spheres& 9his is not a reason to
re'ect a bi: technolo:y push as part of a serious climate strate:yR climate chan:e needs to be confronted, and conflict is almost certainly endemic to serious climate policy& 0onetheless, before policyma4ers place their bets on technolo:y policy, they %ould do %ell to

better understand the opportunities for conflict that lur4 there& Cf they do, they %ill reali)e the limits of technolo:y policy and %ill more li4ely pursue a modest but constructive approach& Cf they do not, the more li4ely outcome is a drive that tries to do

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too much %ith technolo:y policy& 1ut 'ust

MICHIGAN 7WS 2013

li4e the ma5imalist efforts to solve every climate problem %ith cap(and(trade and an international treaty, that overstretch is li4ely to be:et failure & Promise and problems 9he political lo:ic motivatin: calls
for a ne% focus on technolo:y in 3&+& domestic policy is strai:htfor%ard& Americans do not li4e re:ulation, as is evident in their reactions to cap(and( trade, but they are enthusiastic about innovation and technolo:y& 9hey are averse to constraints, and %hereas cap(and(trade %as sMuarely about limits, technolo:y promotion is about e5pandin: options and possibly stimulatin: economic :ro%th& /oreover, many see :reenhouse :as re:ulation as bein: about creatin: losers, most notably in fossil fuel industries and those %ho depend on those industries for ener:yR technolo:y promotion, in the ne% narrative, is about creatin: ne% %innin: industries and lar:e constituencies %ho can :ain from the options they provide& 9he international case

for a focus on technolo:y is similarly strai:htfor%ard& 9raditional climate ne:otiations are about spreadin: the pain of emissions reductions& Gach country fi:hts to ensure that it is spared onerous obli:ations and that others bear as much burden as possible& Focusin: on technolo:y %ould sidestep that fi:ht& Cf clean technolo:y becomes cheaper than dirty fuel, then all countries %ill %ant to adopt it, and there %ill be no burden to be shared & 2limate diplomacy is also immensely complicated& 0e:otiations
over rules for measurin: emissions and schemes for tradin: :reenhouse :as credits ta4e diplomats deep into difficult details& 9echnolo:y, by contrast, appears to harness mar4ets strai:htfor%ardly to help spread lo%(emissions behavior %ithout the need for ma'or international coordination or technical ne:otiation& /uch of this appears persuasive, yet there is :ood reason to believe that it is %ron:& Americans may not li4e re:ulation, but they do not appear to li4e :overnment spendin: or ta5es either& Pet %ithout

ne% ta5es, spendin:, or re:ulation, :overnment has no si:nificant tools %ith %hich to promote clean ener:y innovation& 9echnolo:y promotion can superficially appear to be purely about encoura:in: :ro%thJcheaper ener:y should mean more economic activityJbut that i:nores the cost of promotin: clean technolo:y in the first place & Cndeed, ill(conceived :overnment efforts to cut the cost of clean ener:y %ould simply spend ta5payer funds %ithout producin: any real %orld payoff& Cn addition, technolo:y policy, if it is to succeed in dealin: %ith climate chan:e, %ill inevitably create losers alon:side its %inners& 2uttin: emissions reMuires not only usin: more %ind, solar, and nuclear po%er, it also reMuires usin: less coal and oil& Further problems loom on the international front& 9echnolo:y promotion, 'ust li4e emissions cuts, reMuires dividin: a pie& 9he only difference is that the pie is a ne% one& Only so many %ind turbines, solar panels, and nuclear reactors can be sold into the international mar4et, and countries (and their firms and %or4ers* %ill fi:ht to ma5imi)e the fraction that are theirs& /oreover, a race to develop clean ener:y "&ll not necessar&l' spa"n a race to %eplo' &t & 9echnolo:y policy can ma4e clean ener:y cheaper, but not necessarily cheaper than fossil fuel alternatives, particularly e5istin: coal po%er plants %hose capital costs are already sun4& Policy interventions such as cap(and(trade or re:ulatory mandates, %ith all the political challen:es
they entail, %ill still be reMuired to tip the scales&

@ene"a3les can7t sol+e "arm&n) t(ree reasons /om3or)F 13 author of 9he +4eptical Gnvironmentalist and 2ool Ct and president of the 2openha:en 2onsensus 2enter (1'srn, Kombor:# Obama should confront climate chan:e fantasies, 3+A 9oday, F$2D$2 !", http#$$%%%&usatoday&com$story$opinion$2 !"$ F$2D$obama(climate(chan:e(:eor:eto%n( column$2@DDE2"* $$ /+ President ObamaAs ne% climate policies outlined 9uesday include both brilliant and useless ideas& 9he confusion stems from ObamaAs un%illin:ness to confront three climate fantasies# -ene%ables are a ma'or part of the solution today& 0o, they are almost trivial& 9oday, the %orld :ets B!I of its ener:y from fossil fuels by 2 "D, in the most :reen scenario, %e %ill still :et E?I from fossil fuels& 7ind and solar %ill increase from &BI to "&2I (( impressive, but not %hat is :oin: to matter& 1iofuels should play a ma'or part of the solution& 0o& For no%, biofuels simply diverts food into cars, drivin: up food prices and starvation, %hile clearin: forests for ne% fields emit more 2O2 than biofuels save& Gfficiency can cut emissions& 0o& 7hile efficiency is :ood, studies sho% it has little climate impact, because its savin:s :ets eaten up by more use& As your car :ets more efficient, you drive it further, and the money you still save :et used for other carbon(emittin: activities& @ene"a3les %on7t sol+e "arm&n) four "arrants $/NF 13 1loomin:ton 0ormal 0e%s (9he 2limate 2han:e ;oa5, !$!$2 !", http#$$blnne%s&com$2 !"$ !$ !$the(climate(chan:e(hoa5(part("* $$ /+ -ene%able ener:y is proposed as the solution& 9he claim is that if %e 'ust stop usin: coal, natural :as, and oil and instead adopt solar, %ind, and bio(fuels %e can stop dan:erous carbon emissions and halt :lobal %armin:& 3nfortunately, there are as many misconceptions about rene%able ener:y as there are about climate science# !* -ene%ables are

Nuclear War MICHIGAN 7WS 2013 11*/221 very e5pensive& 9he ener:y produced by %ind is much more e5pensive than coal and natural :as, solar is even more e5pensive& 7orse, they provide intermittent ener:y& Cf you %ant to be able to flic4 on a li:ht s%itch, conventional production plants have to remain on line& 7ind and solar %ill never provide 2@ hour$"FD days %orth of po%er& 2* -ene%ables provide on a pittance of ener:y& After 2 years of subsidies, more than !F , %ind turbine to%ers have been installed across the %orld& Pet in 2 ! these turbines provided less than !I of the %orld8s ener:y& "* 1iofuels are a poor substitute for :asoline& After accountin: for all the ener:y reMuired to :ro% corn and refine ethanol motor fuel, about @&D :allons of corn ethanol are needed to replace the ener:y eMuivalent of ! :allon of :asoline& @* -ene%ables don8t si:nificantly reduce :reenhouse :as emissions& 7ind turbines must be bac4ed up by hydrocarbon plants that cycle on and off to trac4 the intermittency of the %ind, eliminatin: nearly all emissions savin:s& 1urnin: ethanol fuel from corn emits more carbon dio5ide that :asoline&

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Water Wars
Water Wars are a m't( tra%e an% cooperat&on pre+ents t(em $arna3' 4 ( editor of People T +cience, the ma:a)ine published by the 1ritish +cience Association (7endy, 6o
nations :o to %ar over %aterH, "$!?$!", Nature, +ubscription -eMuired for online access*$$7K
:ave birth to popular notions of A%ater %arsA& Ct 9he 3nited 0ations %arned as recently as last %ee4 that climate chan:e harbours the potential for serious conflicts over %ater& Cn its 7orld 7ater 6evelopment -eport! of /arch 2 ?, it Muotes 30 +ecretary(=eneral 1an >i(moon notin: the ris4 of %ater scarcity <transformin: peaceful competition into violence<& Ct is statements such as this that

is time %e dispelled this myth& 2ountries do not :o to %ar over %ater, they solve their %ater shorta:es throu:h trade and international a:reements& 2ooperation, in fact, is the dominant response to shared %ater resources& 9here are 2F" cross(boundary %ater%ays in the %orld& 1et%een !?@B and !???, cooperation over %ater, includin: the si:nin: of treaties, far out%ei:hed conflict over %ater and violent conflict in particular & Of !,B"! instances of interactions
over international fresh%ater resources tallied over that time period (includin: everythin: from unofficial verbal e5chan:es to economic a:reements or military action*, FEI %ere cooperative, only 2BI %ere conflictive, and the remainin: DI %ere neutral or insi:nificant&

Cn those five decades, there %ere no formal declarations of %ar over %ater2& C learned this the hard %ay& A fe% years a:o, C had 'ust %ritten a boo4 about biolo:ical %arfare" and the publishers %ere 4een

for me to %rite another& <;o% about one on %ater %arsH< they as4ed& Ct seemed a :ood idea& 9he !?? s had seen cataclysmic forecasts, such as former 7orld 1an4 vice( president Csmail +era:eldinAs often(Muoted !??D prophecy that, althou:h <the %ars of this century %ere fou:ht over oil, the %ars of the ne5t century %ill be fou:ht over %ater<& 9his and similar %arnin:s entered the )eit:eist& 9ony Allan, a social scientist at >in:As 2olle:e Kondon and the +chool of Oriental and African +tudies (+OA+* in Kondon, summari)ed@ the not(so(subtle ar:ument as <if you run out of %ater you reach for a >alashni4ov or summon the air stri4e<& Cn five decades, there %ere no formal declarations of %ar over %ater& C had no difficulty findin: sources to bac4 up this ar:ument, and C set about %ritin: chapters on the Jordan, the 0ile and the 9i:risGuphrates river systems& /y chapter choice relied on %hat seemed a perfectly reasonable assumption# that %ater scarcity %as :overned by the presence or absence of flo%in: %ater& Allan had made the same assumption a fe% decades earlier %hen he set out to study the %ater situation in Kibya& 1y the mid(!?B s, %ater stress in 0orth Africa and the /iddle Gast had %orsenedR but Allan be:an to Muestion his assumptions %hen he found no si:n of the %idely predicted %ater %ars& Cnstead, the bur:eonin: populations of the /iddle Gastern

people %ho are short of %ater do not necessarily fi:ht over it& Cnvisible %ater AllanAs earlier thin4in: about %ater %ars be:an to chan:e after meetin: the late =ideon Fishelson, an
economies had no apparent difficulties in meetin: their food and %ater needs& Allan had been forced to :rapple %ith a situation in %hich a:ricultural economist at 9el Aviv 3niversity, Csrael& Fishelson ar:ued that it is foolish for Csrael, a %ater(short country, to :ro% and then e5port products such as oran:es and avocados, %hich reMuire a lot of %ater to cultivate& FishelsonAs %or4 prompted Allan to reali)e that %ater AembeddedA in traded products could be important in e5plainin: the absence of conflict over %ater in the re:ion& As a :lobal avera:e, people typically drin4 one cubic metre of %ater each per year, and use ! cubic metres per year for %ashin: and cleanin:& Gach of us also accounts for !, cubic metres per year to :ro% the food %e eat& Cn temperate climates, the %ater needed to produce this food is :enerally ta4en for :ranted&

Cn arid re:ions, Allan described ho% people depend on irri:ation and imported food to fulfill these needs& Cmported food, in particluar, saves on the %ater reMuired to cultivate crops& 9he relationship of food trade to %ater sustainability is often not obvious, and often remains invisible# no political leader %ill :ain any popularity by ac4no%led:in: that their country ma4es up the %ater bud:et only by importin: food & Allan sa% throu:h
this to document ho% the %ater bud:ets of the /iddle Gast %ere accounted for %ithout conflict& Allan %rote about embedded %ater for a fe% years %ithout it e5citin: any comment& 9hen, on a dar4 /onday afternoon in 0ovember !??2, durin: a routine +OA+ seminar, somebody used the term AvirtualA %ater to describe the same concept& Allan reali)ed this attention(:rabbin: %ord, in vo:ue %ith the computer(literate youn:er :eneration, %ould catch on better than his o%n term& And he %as ri:ht# <From there on it fle%,< he says& AllanAs %or4 e5plained ho%, as poor countries diversify their economies, they turn a%ay from a:riculture and create %ealth from industries that use less %ater&

As a country becomes richer, it may reMuire more %ater overall to sustain its boomin: population, but it can afford to import food to ma4e up the shortfallD& Areas seemin:ly desperate for %ater arrive at sustainable solutions than4s to the import of food, reducin: the demand for %ater and :ivin: an invisible boost to domestic supplies& Political leaders can threaten hostile action if their visible %ater supplies are threatened (a potentially useful political bluff*, %hile not needin: to %a:e %ar than4s to the benefits of trade& +ources of %ar Csrael ran out of %ater in the !?D s# it has not since then produced enou:h %ater to meet all of its needs, includin: food production& Jordan has been
they all import :rain& As Allan points out, more

in the same situation since the !?F sR G:ypt since the !?E s& Althou:h it is true that these countries have fou:ht %ars %ith each other, they have not fou:ht over %ater& Cnstead

AvirtualA %ater flo%s into the /iddle Gast each year embedded in :rain than flo%s do%n the 0ile to G:yptian farmers& Perhaps the most often Muoted e5ample of a %ater %ar is the situation in the 7est 1an4 bet%een Palestinians and Csrael& 1ut as /ar4 Zeitoun, senior lecturer in development studies at the 3niversity of Gast An:lia in 0or%ich, 3>, has e5plained, contrary to %hat both the mass media and some academic literature say on the sub'ect, %hile there is conflict and tension J as %ell as cooperation J there is no A%ater %arA here either F& 9en million people no% live bet%een the Jordan -iver and the /editerranean
+ea& Cf they %ere to be self(sufficient in food, they %ould need ten billion cubic metres of %ater per year& As it is, they have only about one(third of that# enou:h to :ro% !D 2 I of their food& 9hey import the rest in the form of food& 7hen it comes to %ater for domestic and industrial use, the rainfall and :eolo:y of the 7est 1an4 alone should provide enou:h %ater for the population there# -amallah has a hi:her annual avera:e rainfall than 1erlin& 1ut today, %ater for even these needs is scarce& Po%er stru::les and politics have led to overt and institutionali)ed conflict over %ater J but no armed conflict, as there is over borders and statehood& Cnstead, Palestinian and Csraeli %ater professionals interact on a Joint 7ater 2ommittee, established by the Oslo(CC Accords in !??D& Ct is not an eMual partnership# Csrael has de facto veto po%er on the committee& 1ut they continue to meet, and issue official e5pressions of cooperation, even in the face of military action& CneMuitable

access to %ater resources is a

result of the broader conflict and po%er dynamics# it does not itself cause %ar & 9he 0ile 1asin Cnitiative, launched in !??? and

encompassin: nine nations, is another e5ample of the %ay in %hich %ider :eopolitical and economic factors help to balance %ater allocation& ;istorically, vast differences in the political clout of nations across %hich, or alon: %hich, a river flo%s have resulted in uneMual %ater division& 3nder the !?D? 0ile 7aters A:reement bet%een G:ypt and +udan, G:ypt has had ri:hts to BEI of the 0ileAs %ater, %ith +udan havin: ri:hts to the rest& Gthiopia, %hose hi:hlands supply BFI of 0ile %ater, does not even fi:ure in the a:reement# continuin: conflicts %ea4ened the a:reement to a point %here Gthiopia has been unable to press a claim& 1ut G:yptAs desire to consolidate its economic development necessitates that it no% come to better terms %ith its nei:hbours, improvin: prospects for local trade& +o G:ypt is %illin: to en:a:e in the multilateral initiative to

Ki4e%ise, althou:h Cndia and Pa4istan have fou:ht three %ars and freMuently find themselves in eyeball(to(eyeball confrontation, the !?F Cndus 7aters 9reaty, arbitrated by the 7orld 1an4, has more than once helped to defuse tensions over %ater& Oil and %ater donAt mi5 Pet the myth of %ater %ars persists & 2limate chan:e, %e are told, %ill cause %ater shorta:es& 9he
cooperate more on matters such as hydroelectric po%er development, po%er(sharin: cooperatives, river re:ulation and %ater(resources mana:ement& "&2 billion by the 2 B sE& 7ater

Cnter:overnmental Panel on 2limate 2han:e estimates that up to 2 billion people may be at ris4 from increasin: %ater stress by the 2 D s, and that this number could rise to

mana:ement %ill need to adapt& 1ut the mechanisms of trade, international a:reements

Nuclear War MICHIGAN 7WS 2013 11?/221 and economic development that currently ease %ater shorta:es %ill persist & -esearchers, such as Aaron 7olf at Ore:on +tate
3niversity, 2orvallis, and 0ils Petter =leditsch at the Cnternational Peace -esearch Cnstitute in Oslo, point out that predictions of armed conflict come from the media and from popular, non(peer(revie%ed %or4& 9here is somethin: other than %ater for %hich shorta:es, or even the perceived threat of future shorta:es, does cause %ar J oil& 1ut

the strate:ic si:nificance of oil is immeasurably hi:her than that of %ater & +erious interruptions of oil supplies %ould stop hi:hly developed economies in their trac4s& Oil is necessary for a developed economy, and a developed economy provides for all the needs of its citi)ens, includin: %ater& People in developed economies do not die of thirst& /y encounter %ith AllanAs %or4 4illed my boo4& C offered to revise its thesis, but my publishers pointed out that predictin: an absence of %ar over %ater %ould not sell& 1oo4 or no boo4, it is still important that the popular myth of %ater %ars someho% be dispelled once and for all & 9his %ill not only stop unsettlin: and
incorrect predictions of international conflict over %ater& Ct %ill also discoura:e a certain public resi:nation that climate chan:e %ill brin: %ar, and focus attention instead on %hat politicians can do to avoid it# most importantly, improve the conditions of trade for developin: countries to stren:then their economies& And it %ould help to convince %ater en:ineers and mana:ers, %ho still tend to see %ater shorta:es in terms of local supply and demand, that the solutions to %ater scarcity and security lie outside the %ater sector in the %ater$food$trade$economic development ne5us& Ct

%ould be :reat if %e could unclo: our stream of thou:ht about the

misleadin: notions of A%ater %arsA& Water "ars aren7t )o&n) to (appen cooperat&on comes f&rst Campana 4 ( the director of the Cnstitute for 7ater and 7atersheds and a professor of :eosciences at Ore:on +tate 3niversity (/ichael, 7e 7on8t Ket Gach Other =o 9hirsty, D$!@$?,
http#$$seedma:a)ine&com$content$article$theLtruthLaboutL%aterL%ars$*$$7K 7ater %ars& ;o% many times has some e5pert portrayed a future %ith nations %a:in: %ar over that most precious of resources, %aterH 9here have even been su::estions of intra national %ater %ars, as in Andre% 7ice8s novel, 9o 9he Kast 6rop, in %hich 9e5as and 0e% /e5ico fi:ht over %ater& As someone %ho spent !E years in the Kand of Gnchantment, C do not find that premise too much of a stretch& 7ith 2F" international river basins and 2E" international aMuifers, it %ould seem that %ater %ars are a virtual certainty& Cf anythin:, ho%ever, history tells us that cooperation over

%ater e5ceeds conflict& 9he Cndus -iver 2ommission survived t%o ma'or %ars bet%een Cndia and Pa4istan& 6urin: one of the %ars, Cndia continued to ma4e payments to Pa4istan as part of its treaty obli:ations & +ince the
Aaron 7olf found that in the D years since the late !?@ s %ater cooperative events outnumbered conflictive events by 2&D to !& ;e noted that

mid(!?D s Csrael and Jordan held secret picnic table tal4s on mana:in: the Jordan -iver even thou:h they %ere technically at %ar from !?@B to !??@& 9he 3+, /e5ico, and 2anada have effective institutions to resolve %ater disputes before they escalate & /y collea:ue

the only %ater %ar bet%een nations on record occurred more than @,D years a:o bet%een the city(states of Ka:ash and 3mma in the 9i:ris(Guphrates basin& 9he aforementioned events afford some measure of optimism, but %ill the past predict the
futureH 7e face an uncertain and potentially calamitous future& 7orld population is approachin: E billion people& 2limate chan:e and its effect on %ater resources loom ominously& 7atershed boundaries may chan:e& 7ater supplies may increase in some areas and decrease in others& And since %ater does more than Muench thirstJit :ro%s food, maintains ecosystems and fisheries, dilutes %aste, provides recreation, facilitates navi:ation and trade, and :enerates po%erJC can foresee situations %here nations, or even states, cities, or provinces, %a:e %ar over %ater and the services it provides& 2an %e

ta4e preventive measuresH 6efinitely& -apid chan:es in international basins in the absence of institutional capacity (e&:&, treaties* tend to increase hydrovulnerability, the ris4 of dispute over a shared %ater resource& 7e must ensure that all involved have sufficient institutional capacity to enhance hydroresilience, the ability to absorb chan:e %ithout ne:ative conseMuences &
-iver basins receive most of the attention, but so should transnational aMuifers& /a4e no mista4e# Cmplementin: these measures %ill be dauntin:& Aaron

7olf is correct# 7ater does hit us at a profoundly different level& For that reason, C believe that, despite the perilous road ahead, in ! years Ka:ash and 3mma %ill be the ans%er to a trivia Muestion&

Water pro3lems (elp create peace not "ar Deen * ( 3&0& 1ureau 2hief and -e:ional 6irector at (CP+* ne%s a:ency, has been coverin: the 3nited 0ations since the late !?E s (9halif, POKC9C2+# 7ater 7ars a /yth, +ay G5perts, B$2D$F, http#$$%%%&ipsne%s&net$2 F$ B$politics(%ater(%ars(a(
myth(say(e5perts$*$$7K 9he %orld8s future %ars %ill be fou:ht not over oil but %ater# an ominous prediction made by the 3&+& 2entral Cntelli:ence A:ency (2CA*, the 1ritish ministry of defence and even by some officials of the 7orld 1an4& 1ut e5perts and academics meetin: at an international conference on %ater mana:ement in the +%edish capital are dismissin: this prediction as unrealistic, far(fetched and nonsensical& 7ater %ars ma4e :ood -eport 2 F themed on %ater mana:ement& 9he annual report, commissioned by the 3&0& 6evelopment Pro:ramme (306P*, is to be released in 6ecember& Cn reality, =hosh told the meetin: in +toc4holm, there are plenty of bilateral, multilateral and trans(boundary

ne%spaper headlines but cooperation (a:reements* don8t, says Arunabha =hosh, co(author of the upcomin: ;uman 6evelopment a:reements for %ater(sharin: all or most of %hich do not ma4e :ood ne%spaper copy & As4ed about %ater %ars, Prof& Asit >& 1is%as of the /e5ico(based 9hird 7orld 2entre for 7ater /ana:ement, told CP+# 9his is absolute nonsense because this is not :oin: to happen at least not durin: the ne5t ! years& ;e said the %orld is not facin: a %ater crisis because of physical %ater scarcities& 9his is baloney, he said& 7hat it is facin: is a crisis of bad %ater mana:ement , ar:ued 1is%as, %ho %as a%arded the 2 F

international +toc4holm 7ater Pri)e for outstandin: achievements in his field& 9he presentation ceremony too4 place in +toc4holm 9hursday& Accordin: to the Paris(based 3&0& Gducational, +cientific and 2ultural Or:anisation (30G+2O*, one(third of all river basins are shared by more than t%o countries& =lobally, there are 2F2 international river basins# D? in Africa, D2 in Asia, E" in Gurope, F! in Katin America and the 2aribbean, and !E in 0orth America& Overall, !@D countries have territories that include at least one shared river basin& 1et%een !?@B and !???, 30G+2O says, there have been !,B"! international interactions recorded, includin: D E conflicts, ?F neutral or non(si:nificant events, and most importantly, !,22B instances of

Nuclear War MICHIGAN 7WS 2013 114/221 cooperation& 6espite the potential problem, history has demonstrated that cooperation, rather than conflict, is li4ely in shared basins, 30G+2O concludes& 9he +toc4holm Cnternational 7ater Cnstitute (+C7C* says that ! ( to 2 (year(old ar:uments about conflict over %ater are still bein: recycled& +uch ar:uments i:nore massive amounts of recent research %hich sho%s that %ater(scarce states that share a %ater body tend to find cooperative solutions rather than enter into violent conflict, the institute says& +C7C says that durin: the entire intifada the on:oin: Palestinian uprisin: a:ainst Csrael in the occupied territories of 7est 1an4 and =a)a the only thin: on %hich the t%o %arrin: parties continued to cooperate at a basic level %as their shared %aters& 9hus, rather than reachin: for ar:uments for the ^%ater %ar hypotheses,8 the facts seem to support the idea that %ater is a unitin: force and a potential source of peace rather than violent conflict & +C7C said& =hosh, co(author of the 306P study,
pointed out several a:reements %hich %ere models of cooperation, includin: the Cndus 7aters 9reaty, the Csrael(Jordan accord, the +ene:al -iver 6evelopment Or:anisation and the /e4on: -iver 2ommission& A study sponsored by the 7ashin:ton(based 7oodro% 7ilson Cnternational 2entre for +cholars points that despite ne%spaper headlines screamin: %ater %ars are comin:X, these apocalyptic %arnin:s fly in the face of history& 0o

nations have :one to %ar specifically over %ater resources for thousands of years& Cnternational %ater disputes even amon: fierce enemies are resolved peacefully, even as conflicts erupt over other issues , it says& 9he study
also points out instances of cooperation bet%een riparian nations countries or provinces borderin: the same river that outnumbered conflicts by more than t%o to one bet%een !?@D and !???& 7hyH 1ecause %ater is so important, nations cannot afford to fi:ht over it&

Cnstead, %ater fuels :reater interdependence& 1y comin: to:ether to 'ointly mana:e their shared %ater resources, countries can build trust and prevent conflict , ar:ues the study, 'ointly co(authored by Aaron 7olf, Anni4a >ramer,
Ale5ander 2arius and =eoffrey 6abel4o&

-mp&r&cs an% econom&cs pro+e "ater "ars &mposs&3le /a"f&el% 10 ( an /A candidate at the 3niversity for Peace (7ater +ecurity# 7ar or PeaceH, D$"$!
http#$$%%%&monitor&upeace&or:$innerp:&cfmHidLarticleSE!D*$$7K
Cn reality, %ater author notes, there

does not cause %ar& 9he ar:uments presented above, althou:h correct in principle, have little purchase in empirical evidence& Cndeed, as one is only one case of a %ar %here the formal declaration of %ar %as over %ater &\2 ] 9his %as an incident bet%een t%o /esopotamian city states, Ka:ash and 3mma, over 2,D years 12, in modern day southern CraM& 1oth the initial premises and ar:uments of %ater
%ar theorists have been brou:ht into Muestion& =iven this, a number of areas of contestation have emer:ed# <,uestionin: both the supply and demand side of the %ater %ar ar:ument \&&&] ,uestionin: assumptions about the costs of %ater resources \&&&and] 6emonstratin: the cooperative potential of the %ater resource&<\2!]

7hy then is %ater not a cause of %arH 9he ans%er lies in t%o factors# first, the capacity for adaptation to %ater stresses and, second, the political dra%bac4s to couplin: %ater and conflict & First, there is no %ater crisis, or more correctly, there are a number of adaptation strate:ies that reduce stress on %ater resources and so ma4e conflict less li4ely& 3nli4e the %ater %ar discourse, %hich perceives %ater as finite in the /althusian sense, the capacity for adaptation to %ater stress has been :reatly underestimated& For instance, C %ill discuss in particular a tradin: adaptation 4no%n as ^virtual %ater8, %hich refers to the %ater used to :ro% imported food& 9his %ater can be subtracted from the total pro'ected a:ricultural %ater needs of a state, and hence allo%s %ater scarce states to operate on a lo%er in(country %ater reMuirement than %ould other%ise be e5pected&\22] 9his means that re:ions of the %orld that are particularly rich in %ater produce %ater intense a:ricultural products more

easily in the :lobal trade system, %hile other %ater scarce areas produce lo% intensity products&\2"] 9he scale of this %ater is si:nificant ( Allan famously pointed out that more embedded %ater flo%s into the /iddle Gast in the form of :rain than flo%s in the 0ile&\2@] Cn addition, there are si:nificant problems around the he:emonic doctrine of the %ater crisis& /any authors point to relatively lo% %ater provision per capita by states, and su::est that this %ill increase the li4elihood of a state en:a:in: in %ar %ith a nei:hbourin: state, to obtain the %ater necessary for its population& 9his is normally a conceptual leap that produces the incorrect corollary of conflict, but is also freMuently a problem of data %ea4nesses around the per capita reMuirements& For instance, +tuc4i cites the case of the Palestinians bein: under the %orst %ater stress, %ith a per capita provision bein: in the re:ion of !FDmt$year&\2D] 3nfortunately, such an analysis is based on false actual provision data in this re:ion& 1ased on the authors %or4 on %ater provision in Kebanese Palestinian refu:ee camps, the actual provision is over ? mt$month& +uch a fi:ure is hi:hly li4ely to be representative of other camps in the re:ion&\2F] Cf this e5ample is representative of trends to e5a::erate %ater pressures in the re:ion, then %e should be sceptical about claims of increasin: %ater stress& Furthermore, :iven that many %ater systems have a pipe lea4a:e rate of fifty per cent, combined %ith a seventy per cent loss of a:ricultural %ater, si:nificant efficiency enhancements could be made to e5istin: infrastructure& 2ombined

%ith desalination options in many %ater shorta:e prone states, there is an overall capacity for technolo:ical and mar4et driven solutions to %ater scarcity &\2E]+econd, %ater %ars are not caused by %ater, but rather an inability of politics& 1arnett ma4es the case clear by ar:uin: that %ater %ar %ould be a ^failure of politics8 rather

than the outcome of 'ustified demands for essential resources&\2B] Cn this %ay, it is not scarcity that is the driver in the /althusian sense, but a political, and politicised issue& 9his is most noticeable %here conflict occurs in areas %here there are both political tensions and %ater resources challen:es& For e5ample, there are absurd and e5a::erated claims of a lin4a:e bet%een Csrael8s %ater mana:ement and surroundin: states& Cn reality, conflict in this re:ion is stron:ly influenced by political circumstance that spea4s to a %ider discourse around Csrael8s position in the 0ear Gast& 9hat environmental constraints and pressures are %oven into %ider discourses of politics is no indication that they are the cause of conflict, but rather more that they are an important conte5tual factor that may be mobilised for political reasons& For instance, in 2 Kebanon started buildin: a small pumpin: station on the 7a))ani river %hich is used by do%nstream Csrael& 9his rapidly became a media issue in Csrael, probably due to the hei:htened security discourse surroundin: %ater& 2laims %ere made that the action %as comparable to the !?F@ diversion of the ;asbani, an Arab coalition move to harm the Csraeli economy& ;o%ever, the story diminished even faster than it emer:ed, %hen officials on both sides sho%ed their dismay at the emer:in: media fren)y&\2?] 9here are t%o 4ey trends to note from this e5ample# first, that %ider discussions around %ater %ars influence the articulation of %ar in reality, and second the %ater component of the conflict is not si:nificant, rather it acts as a tri::er for the utilisation of %ider political narratives& Cn essence, %ater

is merely a tool for political ends& 9hird, %ar over %ater is illo:ical& +tates are not inherently belli:erent, but act in self interested, utility(ma5imisin: %ays& -ather, they en:a:e in conflict if they stand to :ain more than they loose& Cn the case of %ater, the costs of military en:a:ement far out%ei:h the costs of cooperative en:a:ement& For instance, 1as4in points out that it %ould cost more for Csrael to en:a:e in %ar for the %ater resources of the 7est 1an4 than it %ould to buy the eMuivalent of the 7est

Nuclear War 120/221 1an4s aMuifers from else%here&\"

MICHIGAN 7WS 2013

] 7ater %ar prota:onists also present the %ea4 ar:ument that there is a uniMue situation in the /iddle Gast of the

+tate territories have been e5tremely stable for over a hundred years conflict that attempts to enlar:e boundaries %ould problematise the very e5istence and le:itimacy of the state itself & 1y contrast, if they stand to :ain by establishin: cooperative relationships %ith other states in the international system, they %ill& Ct is difficult to see ho% :ood %ater mana:ement, %hich freMuently demands cooperation, can be conducted throu:h the use of conflict&
possibility of state territories chan:in:, %ith %ater related land :rabs& ^Qictory may brin: land that offers more resources either %ater or oil&8\"!] 9his is not the case&

Water s(orta)es create last&n) peace an% &nter%epen%ence INot necessar' 3ut coolJ t(e&r r(etor&c of "ater "ars pre+ents confl&ct resolut&on an% cooperat&onK Wolf et al * ( . Aaron, Ph&6& 2olle:e of Garth, Ocean, and Atmospheric +ciences Ore:on +tate 3niversity, .. Anni4a >ramer, +enior Pro'ect /ana:er for adelphi& Focuses on the topics related to %ater and conflict& ... Ale5ander 2arius, co(founder and /ana:in: 6irector of adelphi& 9opics of his research are# resources and :overnance, climate and ener:y, and development and security& .... =eoffrey 6& 6abel4o, +enior Advisor, Gnvironmental 2han:e and +ecurity Pro:ram at the 7ilson 2enter (7ater 2an 1e a Path%ay to Peace,
not 7ar, July 2 F, 7ilson 2enter, http#$$%%%&%ilsoncenter&or:$sites$default$files$0avi:atin:PeaceCssue!&pdf*$$7K 7ater %ars are comin:X the ne%spaper headlines scream & Ct seems obviousJrivalries over %ater have been the source of disputes since humans settled do%n to cultivate food& Gven our lan:ua:e reflects these ancient roots# rivalry comes from the Katin rivalis, or one usin: the same river as another& 2ountries or provinces borderin: the same river (4no%n as riparians* are often rivals for the %ater they share& As the number of international river basins (and impact of %ater scarcity* has :ro%n so do the %arnin:s that these countries %ill ta4e up arms to ensure their access to %ater& Cn !??D, for e5ample, 7orld 1an4 Qice President Csmail +era:eldin claimed that the %ars of the ne5t century %ill be about %ater& 9hese

apocalyptic %arnin:s fly in the face of history# no nations have :one to %ar specifically over %ater resources for thousands of years& Cnternational %ater disputesJeven amon: fierce enemiesJare resolved peacefully , even as conflicts erupt over other issues& Cn fact, instances of cooperation bet%een riparian nations outnumbered conflicts by more than t%o to one bet%een !?@D and !???& 7hyH 1ecause %ater is so important, nations cannot afford to fi:ht over it& Cnstead, %ater fuels :reater interdependence& 1y comin: to:ether to 'ointly mana:e their shared %ater resources, countries can build trust and prevent conflict& 7ater can be a ne:otiatin: tool, too# it can offer a communication lifeline connectin: countries in the midst of crisis& 9hus, by cryin: %ater %ars, doomsayers i:nore a promisin: %ay to help prevent %ar# cooperative %ater resources mana:ement&

000Wars000

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C(&na @&se/-1pans&on
C(&na e1pans&on &s not a t(reat m&l&tar' &s to "ea# ,(ompsonF 10 (6-G7 9;O/P+O0 is director of 2hina studies and +tarr senior fello% at the 0i5on 2enter, /A-2;$AP-CK 2 ! 9hin4 A:ain# 2hinaAs /ilitary http#$$%%%&forei:npolicy&com$articles$2 ! $ 2$22$thin4La:ainLchinasLmilitary* 1ut itAs probably too soon for Americans to panic& /any e5perts %hoAve loo4ed closely at the matter a:ree that 2hina today simply does not have the military capability to challen:e the 3nited +tates in the Pacific, thou:h its moderni)ation pro:ram has increased its ability to en:a:e the 3nited +tates close to 2hinese shores& And the 3&+& military is still, for all its troubles in CraM and Af:hanistan, the most capable fi:htin: force on the planet& No C(&na ta#e2o+er m&l&tar' an% soft po"erF all&ances an% res&l&ence susta&ns >S lea%ers(&p N'eF 2010 Joseph + 0ye Jr&, 3niversity 6istin:uished +ervice Professor at ;arvard 3niversity ( 9he Future of American Po%er# 6ominance and
6ecline in Perspective Forei:n Affairs B? noF 2(!2 0$6 2 ! * As for the 3nited +tatesA po%er relative to 2hinaAs, much %ill depend on the uncertainties of future political chan:e in 2hina&

1arrin: any political upheaval, 2hinaAs si)e and hi:h rate of economic :ro%th %ill almost certainly increase its relative stren:th vis( d(vis the 3nited +tates& 9his %ill brin: 2hina closer to the 3nited +tates in po%er resources, but it does not necessarily mean that 2hina %ill surpass the 3nited +tates as the most po%erful country((even if 2hina suffers no ma'or domestic political setbac4s& Pro'ections based on :dp :ro%th alone are one(dimensional& 9hey i:nore 3&+& advanta:es in military and soft po%er, as %ell as 2hinaAs :eopolitical disadvanta:es in the Asian balance of po%er& Amon: the ran:e of possible futures, the more li4ely are those in %hich 2hina :ives the 3nited +tates a run for its money but does not surpass it in overall po%er in the first half of this century& Koo4in: bac4 at history, the 1ritish strate:ist Ka%rence Freedman has
noted that the 3nited +tates has <t%o features %hich distin:uish it from the dominant :reat po%ers of the past# American po%er is based on alliances rather than colonies and is associated %ith an ideolo:y that is fle5ible& & & & 9o:ether they provide a core of relationships and values to %hich America can return even after it has overe5tended itself&< And loo4in: to the future, the scholar Anne(/arie +lau:hter has ar:ued that the 3nited +tatesA culture of openness and innovation %ill 4eep it central in a %orld %here net%or4s supplement, if not fully replace, hierarchical po%er& 9he 3nited +tates is

%ell placed to benefit from such net%or4s and alliances , if it follo%s smart strate:ies& =iven Japanese concerns about the rise of 2hinese po%er, Japan is more li4ely to see4 3&+& support to preserve its independence than ally %ith 2hina& 9his enhances the 3nited +tatesA position& 3nless Americans act foolishly %ith re:ard to Japan, an allied Gast Asia is not a plausible candidate to displace the 3nited +tates& Ct matters that the t%o entities in the %orld %ith per capita incomes and sophisticated economies similar to those of the 3nited +tates((the Guropean 3nion and Japan((both are 3&+& allies& Cn traditional realist terms of balances of po%er resources, that ma4es a lar:e difference for the net
position of 3&+& po%er& And in a more positive(sum vie% of po%er((that of holdin: po%er %ith, rather than over, other countries((Gurope and Japan provide the lar:est pools of resources for dealin: %ith common transnational problems& Althou:h their interests are not identical to those of the 3nited +tates, they share overlappin: social and :overnmental net%or4s %ith it that provide opportunities for cooperation& On the Muestion of absolute, rather than relative, American decline, the 3nited +tates faces serious problems in areas such as debt, secondary education,

and political :ridloc4& 1ut they are only part of the picture& Of the multiple possible futures, stron:er cases can be made for the
positive ones than the ne:ative ones& 1ut amon: the ne:ative futures, the most plausible is one in %hich the 3nited +tates overreacts to terrorist attac4s by turnin: in%ard and thus cuts itself off from the stren:th it obtains from openness& 1arrin: such mista4en strate:ies, ho%ever, there

are solutions to the ma'or American problems of today & (Kon:(term debt, for e5ample, could be solved by puttin: in place, after the
economy recovers, spendin: cuts and consumption ta5es that could pay for entitlements&* Of course, such solutions may forever remain out of reach& 1ut

it is important to distin:uish hopeless situations for %hich there are no solutions from those that could in principle be solved& After all, the bipartisan reforms of the Pro:ressive era a century a:o re'uvenated a badly troubled country&

C(&na cannot effect&+el' c(allen)e t(e >S soon lac#s compre(ens&+e %e+elopment strate)&esF m&l&tar' stren)t( an% >S partners(&ps "&t( In%&a an% apan pre+ent N'eF 2010 Joseph + 0ye Jr&, 3niversity 6istin:uished +ervice Professor at ;arvard 3niversity ( 9he Future of American Po%er# 6ominance and
6ecline in Perspective Forei:n Affairs B? noF 2(!2 0$6 2 ! * 2;C0A O0 9;G -C+G For more than a decade, many have

vie%ed 2hina as the most li4ely contender to balance 3&+& po%er or surpass it& +ome dra% analo:ies to the challen:e that imperial =ermany posed to the 3nited >in:dom at the be:innin: of the last century& A
recent boo4 (by /artin JacMues* is even titled 7hen 2hina -ules the 7orld& 9he Gnd of the 7estern 7orld and the 1irth of a 0e% =lobal Order&

=oldman +achs has pro'ected that the total si)e of 2hinaAs economy %ill surpass that of the 3nited +tates in 2 2E& Pet 2hina has a lon: %ay to :o to eMual the po%er resources of the 3nited +tates, and it still faces many obstacles to its development& Gven if overall 2hinese :dp passed that of the 3nited +tates around 2 " , the t%o economies, althou:h rou:hly eMuivalent in si)e, %ould not be eMuivalent in composition& 2hina %ould still have a vast underdeveloped countryside, and it %ould have be:un to face demo:raphic problems from the delayed effects of its one(child policy & Per

Nuclear War MICHIGAN 7WS 2013 122/221 capita income provides a measure of the sophistication of an economy & Assumin: a si5 percent 2hinese :dp :ro%th rate and only t%o percent American :dp :ro%th rate after 2 " , 2hina %ould probably not eMual the 3nited +tates in per capita income until sometime around the middle of the century & Cn other %ords, 2hinaAs impressive
economic :ro%th rate and increasin: population %ill li4ely lead the 2hinese economy to pass the 3&+& economy in total si)e in a fe% decades, but that is not the same as eMuality& /oreover, linear pro'ections can be misleadin:, and :ro%th rates :enerally slo% as economies reach hi:her

levels of development& 2hinaAs authoritarian political system has sho%n an impressive capability to harness the countryAs po%er, but %hether the :overnment can maintain that capability over the lon:er term is a mystery both to outsiders and to 2hinese leaders& 3nli4e Cndia, %hich %as born %ith a democratic constitution, 2hina has not yet found a %ay to solve the problem of demands for political participation (if not democracy* that tend to accompany risin: per capita income & 7hether 2hina
can develop a formula that mana:es an e5pandin: urban middle class, re:ional ineMuality, rural poverty, and resentment amon: ethnic minorities remains to be seen& +ome have ar:ued that 2hina aims to challen:e the 3nited +tatesA position in Gast Asia and, eventually, the %orld& Gven

if this %ere an accurate assessment of 2hinaAs current intentions (and even the 2hinese themselves is doubtful that 2hina %ill have the military capability to ma4e this possible anytime soon& /oreover, 2hinese leaders %ill have to contend %ith the reactions of other countries and the constraints created by 2hinaAs need for e5ternal mar4ets and resources & 9oo a::ressive a 2hinese military posture could
cannot 4no% the vie%s of future :enerations*, it produce a countervailin: coalition amon: 2hinaAs nei:hbors that %ould %ea4en both its hard and its soft po%er& 9he rise of 2hinese po%er in Asia is contested by both Cndia and Japan (as %ell as other states*, and that provides a ma'or po%er advanta:e to the 3nited +tates& 9he 3&+&(Japanese

alliance and the improvement in 3&+&(Cndian relations mean that 2hina cannot easily e5pel the Americans from Asia& From that position of stren:th, the 3nited +tates, Japan, Cndia, Australia, and others can en:a:e 2hina and provide incentives for it to play a
responsible role, %hile hed:in: a:ainst the possibility of a::ressive behavior as 2hinaAs po%er :ro%s&

C(&na7s pursu&t of peaceful %e+elopment poses no t(reat Gra(am2Harr&sonF 04 Gditor for 9he =uardian, china e5pert, -euters contributor ( Gmma, 2hinaAs 0avy e5pansion <no threat to others<, -euters, "(?( ?, http#$$in&reuters&com$article$2 ?$ "$ ?$idC0Cndia( "B@!2E2 ? " ?*$$16+ 2hinaAs plans to add aircraft carriers to its fleet and an historic lon:(distance mission by its navy are aimed only at protectin: the country and its trade interests, senior officials %ere Muoted as sayin: on /onday& A lon: coastline, and hi:h dependence on seaborne trade, meant 2hina needed to have a stron: presence at sea, but its :ro%in: confidence should not be misread as a <2hina threat<, the 0avyAs deputy chief of staff told the official 2hina 6aily& <Gven %hen the navy has its aircraft carriers one day, our national defence strate:y %ill remain purely defensive,< /a'or =eneral Zhan: 6eshun told the paper in a story splashed across its front pa:e& 1ei'in: has been 4een to emphasise its case that its :ro%in: economic and political mi:ht is not a threat to other nations, even do%n:radin: a doctrine of <peaceful rise< to <peaceful development< over %orries the former mi:ht sound a::ressive& 1ut lon:(term plans to add an aircraft carrier to its fleet, and the unprecedented deployment of its navy to fi:ht pirates in %aters off +omalia late last year have spar4ed discussion in the 7est about 1ei'in:As ultimate :oals& Zhan: said any %orries %ere misplaced& Aircraft carriers are <strate:ically very common< for bi: countries %ith lon: coastlines and the <historic< mission to 'oin an anti(piracy campai:n in the %aters off +omalia %as no different from those of other nations, he added& <2hina is doin: e5actly %hat other countries are doin:, sendin: ships there# 9o protect national interests,< the Gn:lish(lan:ua:e report Muoted Zhan: sayin:& ;o%ever, in a si:n of ho% a stron:er fleet mi:ht affect the re:ional balance of po%er, Zhan: said 2hina %as 4een to resolve disputes throu:h ne:otiation, but stressed its forces %ere capable of protectin: its maritime territory& 9here are several disputed islets in %aters near 2hina, potentially 4ey to seabed deposits of oil and :as& 2hina, Japan and 9ai%an all lay claim to the 6iaoyu islands, 4no%n as the +en4a4us in Japanese and 9iaoyutai in 9ai%an& Further south, the +pratley islands are claimed by 2hina, 9ai%an, Qietnam, the Philippines and /alaysia& 9he vulnerability of 2hinaAs supply lines for vital commodities li4e oil, and shipments from its thousands of factories, %as mentioned as a 4ey concern by academics and officials intervie%ed by the 2hina 6aily& A stron:er navy %as needed to protect increasin: shipments on the open seas, the 2hina 6aily Muoted -ear Admiral Pan: Pi sayin:& ;e also said the navy %ould al%ays be a peaceful force committed to re:ional security& No t(reat CNN 11 (7ire +taff, =ates# 2hinese military e5pandin:, not threat to 3&+&, 200, F(2(2 !!, http#$$%%%&cnn&com$2 !!$3+$ F$ 2$china&military$inde5&html*$$16+ 2hina is buildin: up its military capabilities, but does not intend to compete %ith the 3nited +tates li4e the +oviet 3nion did, 6efense +ecretary -obert =ates said 9hursday ahead of a summit in Asia& +pea4in: to

Nuclear War MICHIGAN 7WS 2013 123/221 reporters on a fli:ht to +in:apore, =ates said that 2hina is <clearly %or4in: on capabilities that are of concern to us&< ;e added, ho%ever, <C thin4 that the 2hinese have learned po%erful lessons from the +oviet e5perience, and they do not intend to try to compete %ith us across the full ran:e of military capabilities& 1ut C thin4 they are intendin: to build capabilities that :ive them a considerable freedom of action in Asia, and the opportunity to e5tend their influence&< 6urin: a visit to 7ashin:ton earlier this month, 2hinaAs top military officer said that there is a <:apin: :ap bet%een the militaries of the 3nited +tates and 2hina& 2hinese =en& 2hen 1in:de said the 3nited +tates and 2hina need to %or4 to:ether despite their differences& =ates said he understands that 2hina is a ma'or po%er& <7e are not tryin: to hold 2hina do%n& 2hina has been a :reat po%er for thousands of years, it is a :lobal po%er and %ill be a :lobal po%er& +o the Muestion is, ho% do %e %or4 our %ay throu:h this in a %ay that assures that %e continue to have positive relations in areas li4e economics and other areas that are important to both of us and mana:e %hatever other differences %e have in the other areasH< 9he defense secretary %as also as4ed about the recent nomination of Army =en& /artin 6empsey to be the ne5t chairman of the Joint 2hiefs of +taff over previously perceived front(runner /arine =en& James 2art%ri:ht, currently vice chairman of the Joint 2hiefs& 9here %ere some media reports that 2art%ri:ht %as passed over because of reports that he %ent throu:h bac4 channels and bro4e the chain of command durin: discussions of a troop sur:e in Af:hanistan in 2 ?& <Ct had nothin: to do %ith it %hatsoever,< =ates said& <2art%ri:ht is one of the finest officers C have ever %or4ed %ith, C thin4 he has been an outstandin: vice chairman of the 'oint chiefs of staff, C thin4 he has made an enormous contribution, and C have en'oyed %or4in: %ith him for four years, and consider him a friend& ;e has rendered e5traordinary service to the American people&<

Nuclear War 126/221

MICHIGAN 7WS 2013

C(&na2@uss&a War
No r&s# of C(&na2@uss&a "ar meet&n)s an% ener)' cooperat&on pro+e Bee#F 3/23 7riter for the 6iplomat (Zachary, 9ies that 1ind# 2an 2hina(-ussia -elations GndureH, 9he 6iplomat, 2 !", http#$$thediplomat&com$flashpoints(blo:$2 !"$ E$!2$%hy(china(and(the(us(probably(%ont( :o(to(%ar$*$$QP 9he lon:(runnin: consensus in the 7est and else%here has been that 2hina and -ussia are destined to clash& Accordin: to this narrative, %hile America8s post(2old 7ar primacy pushed the t%o sides to:ether, :eo:raphy and 2hina8s :ro%in: po%er ensure 1ei'in: and /osco% %ill be strate:ic competitors over the lon:(term& 9here8s certainly somethin: to this ar:umentR at the very least these factors ensure mistrust %ill be a permanent feature of the bilateral relationship& 9hat bein: said, this i:nores the potential areas of cooperation bet%een -ussia and 2hina, and fails to tell us ho% temporary the +ino(-ussian relationship truly is& Cf President Yi Jinpin:8s trip to -ussia is any indication, the relationship has :reater stayin: po%er than analysts previously e5pected& 0ot only is it symbolically important that Yi has made -ussia the destination of his maiden voya:e as 2hina8s top leader, but he clearly is placin: a lot of importance on the visit& 2hina8s state media have spent the past %ee4 coverin: the trip and +ino(-ussian ties in e5cruciatin: detail, and Yi has reportedly been brushin: up on his rudimentary -ussian lan:ua:e s4ills and even memori)in: -ussian poetry in order to ma4e a stron: impression on his hosts& =iven /osco%8s stron: desire to be perceived as a :reat po%er, Yi li4ely had Putin and company at my first overseas trip& 7hile Yi8s trip may be a one time event, the :ro%in: +ino(-ussian ener:y relationship is premised on lon:(term cooperation& Just hours after YiAs arrival in -ussia on Friday, the head of -ussian ener:y :iant -osneft
announced it had reached an <a:reement in principle< to more than triple its annual oil e5ports to 2hina, from !D million tonnes last year to @D(D million tonnes at an unspecified future date (li4ely around 2 !B*& 9his %ill ma4e 2hina the lar:est consumer of -ussian oil& As part of the deal, -osneft and 2hina 0ational Petroleum 2orporation (20P2* %ill also 'ointly develop " offshore bloc4s of oil near the 1arents +ea and B onshore deposits in Gast +iberia& Furthermore, =a)prom e5pects to finally si:n a deal %ith 1ei'in: as early as the end of this month, in %hich

it %ould e5port "B billion cubic meters of :as to 2hina annually& =a)prom is also reportedly pushin: for a loan as part of this deal
to construct a pipeline to deliver :as to 2hina via +iberia, much li4e the 3&+& [2D billion loan 2hina provided -osneft %ith in 2 ? to construct the Gast +iberia(Pacific Ocean oil pipeline& 9here is a si:nificant conver:ence of interest bet%een the t%o sides on ener:y

cooperation& 1ritish Petroleum forecasts that over half of the :lobal liMuids demand :ro%th throu:h 2 " %ill come from 2hina, at %hich point 1ei'in:8s @F 1illion 2ubic Feet (bcf$d* of daily :as consumption %ill eMual the entire G38s :as consumption in 2 ! & 2hina is already rivalin: the 3&+& in terms of oil imports, and 1P e5pects 2hina
and Cndia to account for ?@ percent of net oil demand :ro%th throu:h 2 " & Accordin: to the Gner:y Cnformation Administration (GCA*, by 2 "D %ill be 2hina importin: ED percent of the oil it consumes&

C(&na2@uss&a cooperat&on (&)( no" &nterests &n &nternat&onal &nst&tut&ons Bee#F 3/23 7riter for the 6iplomat (Zachary, 9ies that 1ind# 2an 2hina(-ussia -elations GndureH, 9he 6iplomat, 2 !", http#$$thediplomat&com$flashpoints(blo:$2 !"$ E$!2$%hy(china(and(the(us(probably(%ont( :o(to(%ar$*$$QP 2hina and -ussia also have si:nificant interests in cooperatin: in international institutions& 9he 30 +ecurity 2ouncil is especially important as it can act as a chec4 on the 3&+&(led 7estern %orld8s strate:ic insanity& /ore :enerally, -ussia8s desire to retain its :reat po%er status ma4es it naturally opposed to any reor:ani)ation of the 30 +ecurity 2ouncil& Althou:h less opposed in principle, 2hina %ill be resolutely opposed in practice :iven that
Cndia and potentially other Asian countries %ould be amon: the countries :ainin: permanent 30+2 membership status in any reor:ani)ation& Althou:h less si:nificant, other multilateral institutions li4e the +han:hai 2ooperation Or:ani)ation and especially 1-C2+

%ill :enerally lend themselves to stren:thenin: +ino(-ussian relations & Cndeed, 1-C2+8 plans to establish a development ban4 and aid fund to serve as counter%ei:hts to the 7estern dominated 7orld 1an4 and C/F is an additional impetus for -ussian(2hinese cooperation&

C(&na2@uss&a cooperat&on (&)( no" %efense cooperat&on Bee#F 3/23 7riter for the 6iplomat (Zachary, 9ies that 1ind# 2an 2hina(-ussia -elations GndureH, 9he 6iplomat, 2 !", http#$$thediplomat&com$flashpoints(blo:$2 !"$ E$!2$%hy(china(and(the(us(probably(%ont( :o(to(%ar$*$$QP 9he :ro%in: level of defense cooperation bet%een the t%o sides is perhaps more surprisin:ly& 9his :enerally ta4es t%o forms& 9he first is -ussian arms sales to 2hina, %hich continue despite repeated incidents of 1ei'in: reverse en:ineerin: -ussian desi:ns& Althou:h this has led -ussia to push for :reater assurances from 2hina to discontinue this behavior, it has not prevented -ussian defense companies from continuin: to feed 1ei'in:As :ro%in: appetite & 9o cite 'ust one

Nuclear War 125/221

e5ample,

MICHIGAN 7WS 2013

e5ample, earlier this month -ussian media outlets reported that the t%o sides are close to concludin: a [@ billion deal that %ill see -ussia sell 2hina @B +u("D multirole fi:hters& -ussian(2hinese defense cooperation also ta4es the form of :ro%in: mil(to(mil ties & Cn June, for

the t%o sides %ill underta4e the Peace /ission 2 !" e5ercise in the +ea of Japan that %ill reportedly include at least 2 %arships from the 2hinese 0orth +ea and -ussian Pacific Fleets& 9he e5ercise %ill ta4e place around -ussia8s Peter
the =reat =ulf, %hich means the %arships from 2hina8s 0orth +ea Fleet %ill transverse the Ka Perouse +trait near the Japanese island of ;o44aido en route to the e5ercise& Once there, the t%o sides %ill underta4e air and sea drills that %ill focus on early %arnin:

collaboration, communication, attac4 and defense, aerial defense, electroma:netic and lo:istics, accordin: to the
=lobal 9imes& 9his military cooperation is on less solid footin: than other areas of -ussian(2hinese cooperation, :iven the potential for the t%o sides to come to blo%s over 2hina8s penetration of -ussia8s Far Gast, the %armin: Arctic, or 2entral Asia& 9hat bein: said, althou:h 2hina8s military

moderni)ation is bein: closely %atched in /osco%, it so far has concentrated on pro'ectin: po%er out%ardly by sea& 9his is in contrast to its traditional focus on land(based threats, and indeed is only made possible by 2hina8s secure land borders& Cn other %ords, 1ei'in:8s military moderni)ation su::ests 2hinese policyma4ers believe that tensions on their northern and %estern borders %ith -ussia can be miti:ated indefinitely, and conflict avoided& 9his stands in contrast to the acute level of threat both sides perceive as emanatin: from 3&+& and allied po%ers, partly due to some in 7ashin:ton8s relentless campai:n to revive 2old 7ar tensions %ith -ussia even as the 3&+& pivots to the 7estern Pacific to contain 2hina& 0one of this is to su::est that -ussia and 2hina %ill spearhead a solid, cohesive counter(bloc to the 7estern %orld& As noted above, at the very least a hi:h de:ree of mistrust %ill permeate the relationship& +till, the relationship li4ely has :reater durability than has been predicted in the past, and the %orld ou:ht to plan accordin:ly& No @uss&a2C(&na "ar2 cooperat&on &s (&)( no" an% t(e me%&a &s all ('pe !eople7s Da&l'F 7/5 0e%spaper of the 2ommunist Party (2hina(-ussia 'oint drill is no military threat, 2hina&or:, July D, 2 !", http#$$%%%&china&or:&cn$%orld$2 !"( E$ D$contentL2?"" ED"&htm*$$QP 9he 2hina(-ussia <Joint +ea(2 !"< naval drill starts on July D at Peter the =reat 1ay and in the +ea of Japan&
2oncerns have been e5pressed by some forei:n media about this 'oint drill, and there has been tal4 of a <2hina 9hreat<& Assertions have been made that

this drill has a symbolic si:nificance in terms of safe:uardin: the soverei:nty of islands in the area, and represents a response to the 3+(Japan alliance& +ome media have even claimed that the drill brin:s the prospects of %ar nearer& 9he reality is much less sensational, and such alle:ations %ill not be allo%ed to disrupt the 'oint drill bet%een 2hina and -ussia& Cn truth the 'oint drill is 'ust one of a series of routine e5ercises bet%een 2hina and -ussia in the conte5t of the comprehensive strate:ic partnership bet%een the t%o countries& 7ith the :ro%th in strate:ic mutual trust, military forces from both countries have normali)ed and institutionali)ed 'oint naval e5ercises& 9hese +ino(-ussian 'oint drills are routine they are no secret and have been in the public domain for some time& 1ut some forei:n po%ers seem to have difficulty in adaptin: to this ne% reality& 2hina and -ussia %ill be conductin: this drill %ith the ob'ective of safe:uardin: peaceR no threat is intended to any other party& 9he 4ey focus of the drill %ill be e5ercises concernin: 'oint escort and the recovery of 4idnapped vessels, demonstratin: the determination of
both 2hinese and -ussian militaries to maintain re:ional and :lobal peace as %ell as their %ill and their ability to deliver international humanitarian aid& 9here %ill be no a::ressive element to the 'oint drill, and it is not tar:eted at any third party& Ct is hard to i:nore the fact that the

countries %hich are doin: most to hype up the 2hina(-ussia threat are those %hich ma4e little effort to conceal their o%n determination to e5pand their military presence in the area in order to <contain< 2hina& 2hina and -ussia are conductin: a 'oint drillR they are not formin: an alliance& Gvery time that such drills are launched there are forei:n countries and forei:n media %ho ta4e advanta:e of the opportunity to invo4e ideas such as the <superpo%er :ame< or <military po%er restructurin:<, and to fabricate threatenin: theories of <military alliances< and <collaborative confrontation<& Cn fact, the 'oint drill reflects the ne% form of relationship bet%een nations based on the principles of non(ali:nment, non(
confrontation and non(tar:etin: of any third country& From the perspective of some countries, every military action on the part of 2hina is labeled a <military threat<& 9hey depict routine military e5ercises as demonstrations of deterrent po%er, describe the introduction of ne% eMuipment as preparations for %ar, and portray naval drills off the coast of local island chains as pursuit of maritime he:emony& 2hina has no illusions as to these countriesA concealed intention to contain and surround 2hina throu:h both public opinion and military means& 2hina has consistently

adhered to its non(a::ressive national defense policy& Cn accordance %ith the trend of the times, the 2hina(-ussia <Joint +ea(2 !"< 'oint naval drills %ill stren:then +ino(-ussian friendship and raise defensive security cooperation to a ne% level& 7e have no doubt that 2hina(-ussia 'oint military drills, conducted %ithin a bilateral and multilateral frame%or4, %ill contribute to re:ional stability and %orld peace&

C(&na2@uss&a cooperat&on (&)( no" an% no t(reat of "ar2 stron) all&ance no"

Nuclear War MICHIGAN 7WS 2013 12*/221 I+ano+F 13 2hair of the Political +cience 6epartment at the 6iplomatic Academy in /osco% (Ole:, +ino( -ussian summit not si:nal of shared pivot to anti(3+ alliance, =lobal 9imes, April !D, http#$$%%%&:lobaltimes&cn$content$EED "&shtmlO&3fKc==9%>>G*$$QP 9here has been a :reat deal of speculation about the possible implications of the -ussian(2hinese summit held in /osco% recently& +ome forei:n e5perts assumed that since 2hinese President Yi Jinpin: chose /osco% for his first official visit, the meetin: %ould lead to a ne% entente aimed at the 3+ and some 2hinese nei:hbors& 1ut C believe that YiAs visit only confirms once more the continuity of friendly +ino(-ussian relations, as -ussia and 2hina have been developin: fruitful cooperation for a lon: time& 9he tas4 that -ussia faces today is not to create a 2!st century entente& 9he 2oncept of the Forei:n Policy of the -ussian Federation holds that -ussian forei:n policy is transparent, multi(vector, predictable and non(confrontational& 1oth -ussia and 2hina are not strivin: to ma4e friends a:ainst somebody, but to develop cooperation %hich %ould not dama:e relations %ith other countries& C doubt %e can spea4 about a political pivot either& Over the past 2 years -ussian( 2hinese relations have been on the rise and had reached strate:ic partnership status lon: before Yi paid his visit& 9he 2oncept holds that the appearance of ne% players on the :lobal political and economic sta:e, alon: %ith 7estern countriesA desire to preserve their accustomed positions, comes %ith increasin: :lobal competition that has resulted in :ro%in: instability in international relations& +o YiAs visit proved a:ain that -ussia and 2hina can ma4e an important contribution, not to confront the 7est but to stren:then :lobal security and stability& 1oth countries are %illin: to play a more responsible role in shapin: the :lobal a:enda and :lobal :overnance& 9hey cannot put up %ith attempts to rule the %orld behind their bac4s& C(&na2@uss&a cooperat&on (&)( no"2 tra%e an% partners(&ps pro+e I+ano+F 13 2hair of the Political +cience 6epartment at the 6iplomatic Academy in /osco% (Ole:, +ino( -ussian summit not si:nal of shared pivot to anti(3+ alliance, =lobal 9imes, April !D, http#$$%%%&:lobaltimes&cn$content$EED "&shtmlO&3fKc==9%>>G*$$QP 9here are at least t%o outside approaches to -ussia and 2hinaAs cooperation& 9he first one focuses on their contradictions and the territorial disputes that 2hina has %ith its nei:hbors in order to drive a %ed:e bet%een the t%o countries& Accordin: to the second, 2hina is pivotin: to -ussia to tip the %orld balance in its favor and to create a rebalance a:ainst the 3+ and its allies& ;o%ever, despite their :ro%in: potential it is obvious that -ussia and 2hina are not able to run the %orld and correct all :lobal discrepancies& 7hatAs more, there is no such :oal& 9he -ussian approach is that collective leadership based on fle5ible non(bloc4(net alliances can stren:then cooperation and security better than e5clusive 2old 7ar(type military alliances& 1oth -ussia and 2hina are lon:(time members of the +han:hai 2ooperation Or:ani)ation and the 1-C2+ :roup& 9hey are partners as %ell as other members in buildin: a multipolar %orld based on international la%& 6espite pro:ress in the political field and arms trade, there is much to be done in the economic sphere& Cn 2 !2 the -ussian(2hinese annual trade volume %as [BB&!F billion %hile 2hinese(3+ trade volume reached [@B@&FB billion& And the trade volume bet%een 2hina and A+GA0 %as [@ & ? billion& 2hina has bi::er trade ties %ith many countries in the Asia(Pacific re:ion than %ith -ussia& C(&na "&ll ne+er attac# t(e @uss&an Aar -ast&t "oul% 3e %&plomat&c an% m&l&tar' su&c&%e MenonF 03 /onroe J& -athbone Professor of Cnternational -elations at Kehi:h 3niversity (-a'an, 9he +ic4 /an of Asia# -ussiaAs Gndan:ered Far Gast, 9he 0ational Cnterest, Fall, http#$$ne%america&net$node$F"@"*$$QP 1y contrast, 2hinaAs military, %hich %as Muite recently a :iant horde of foot soldiers, is moderni)in: steadily(chiefly %ith -ussian
%eaponry, much of it supplied from cash(starved military industries in >habarovs4, >omsomolAs4 and Qladivosto4& Ct may la: far behind the 3nited +tates, but in force pro'ection, speed, accuracy and lethality it is a %holly different force than it %as a decade a:o, than4s to -ussian fi:hter 'ets, submarines, tan4s and missiles, many of them built in the -ussian Far Gast& Pet the chances that 2hina %ill attempt to conMuer

-ussiaAs Far Gast are slim& +uch a bra)en po%er play %ould dama:e 2hinaAs %ider interests& 9ai%an mi:ht recoil in terror and treat 1ei'in:As proposals for a ne:otiated reunification %ith even :reater s4epticism and %ariness& 9he prevailin: 7estern rationale for economic en:a:ement %ith 2hina(that commerce %ill transform and co( opt that country(%ould be shredded& 2hina %ould li4ely face a counterbalancin:, encirclin: coalition of the 3nited +tates, Cndia, Japan, -ussia and Qietnam& 7ould such setbac4s 'ustify the burdens of rulin: the vast, problem(infested -ussian Far GastH 9he 2hinese leaders 4no% their +un 9)u# %hat they see4 from the -ussian Far Gast (access to resources and a beni:n northern front* can be had by means of sil4(:loved he:emony& 2hinese interests can be served %ithout its formal occupation of the territory& Cndeed, %hat may emer:e could be a <reverse /anchurian< scenario, %here the -ussian Far Gast remains a titular part of -ussia but is increasin:ly inte:rated into 1ei'in:As sphere of influence& 9hat is precisely %hat
the conspiracy amon: :eo:raphy, demo:raphy, po%er and time may create in -ussiaAs Far Gast&

Nuclear War MICHIGAN 7WS 2013 127/221 C(&na2@uss&a cooperat&on (&)( no"2 tra%e an% ener)' Harol% an% Sc("art9F 6/12 +ecurity Analysts for 9he 6iplomat (+cott 7& and Ko%ell, A -ussia(2hina Alliance 1re%in:H, 9he 6iplomat, April !2, http#$$thediplomat&com$2 !"$ @$!2$a(russia(china(alliance( bre%in:$*$$QP
On /arch 22nd, shortly after assumin: the post of President of the People8s -epublic of 2hina, Yi Jinpin: headed off to /osco% to meet %ith -ussian President Qladimir Putin& Observers %ere %atchin: the t%o leaders closely, loo4in: to divine %hether or not they could

overcome past divisions to achieve a ne% level of cooperation in bilateral ties & 7hat came out of the t%o leaders8 meetin: and %hat does it au:ur for the future of +ino(-ussian relationsH 9hree ma'or areas appear to have been the focus# mana:in: e5pectations about the relationshipR e5pandin: bilateral trade in ener:y and armsR and cooperation on international security affairs& 6ra%in: on press reports from 2hina and -ussia %e have attempted to determine ho% much pro:ress %as actually made on these issues at the summit& Framin: the relationship bet%een 1ei'in: and /osco% is an issue %ith both domestic and international implications for both countries& 6omestically, 1ei'in:8s leaders %ant to convey to their people that 2hina8s rise is accepted and respected by ma'or %orld po%ers& +imilarly -ussia, %hose relations %ith ma'or 7estern po%ers has deteriorated since the re(election of President Putin, appreciates the respect that comes from Yi Jinpin:8s selection of /osco% for his first visit abroad as 2hina8s ne% leader& 1ilaterally, both 1ei'in: and /osco% are loo4in: to levera:e their relationship to enhance their leaders8 standin: domestically and ma5imi)e their influence amon: %orld po%ers& At the same time, they hope to avoid the costs they %ould incur if other states felt the need to counter(balance a rene%ed bond bet%een -ussia and 2hina& 0either party see4s a %orld %here their relationship is vie%ed as the second comin: of the +ino(+oviet a5is of the 2old 7ar& Cn the realm of bilateral ener:y trade, 2hina8s :oal is to acMuire as much cheap and reliable ener:y as possible %ithout relyin: too heavily on any sin:le(nation source, %hich could be disrupted by an une5pected bilateral crisis& For its part, /osco% %ants to retain as much levera:e as possible over the price of the natural resources it sells and to avoid becomin: dependent upon 2hina as a destination for its ener:y e5ports& Gven in li:ht of these differences, it is sometimes still surprisin: ho% limited ener:y sector cooperation is bet%een 2hina and -ussia, despite -ussia8s vast ener:y resources and 2hina8s rapidly :ro%in: needs, the :eo:raphic pro5imity of the t%o states, and the strate:ic advanta:e of havin: an overland supply route invulnerable to 3&+& 0avy at(sea interdiction& -ussia is 'ust the fourth lar:est supplier of oil to 2hina, supplyin: it %ith only BI of its total oil imports& 9here is even less cooperation in the area of natural :as&

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C(&na Soft !o"er

,(e plan7s &n+estment &sn7t enou)(2 C(&nese reforms are #e' to &ts soft po"er an% &ts stance on Nort( Borea &s an alt cause2 at "orstF soft po"er "&ll &ncrease &n t(e lon) term Hammon%F */7 7riter for the Peninsula (Andre%, Addressin: 2hina8s ^soft po%er deficit8, 9he Peninsula, June E, http#$$thepeninsulaMatar&com$political(vie%s$2@ "?B(addressin:(chinaIG2IB I??s( IG2IB I?Bsoft(po%er(deficitIG2IB I??&html*$$QP As 2hinese President Yi Jinpin: prepared for his landmar4 summit %ith President 1arac4 Obama in 2alifornia yesterday and today, the critical mission of improvin: 2hina8s ima:e in the %orld could %ell be uppermost in his mind& 9he central challen:e that Yi faces here is that 2hina8s soft po%er J its ability to %in the hearts and minds of other nations and influence their :overnments throu:h attraction rather than coercion or payment J has la::ed far behind its purposeful hard po%er built on its :ro%in: economic and military mi:ht& 9his soft po%er deficit could prove a real headache for the ne% 2hinese president, for there is increasin: international concern, suspicion and even outri:ht hostility as 2hina8s international role e5pands& Cn the 3nited +tates, for e5ample, public favourability to%ard 2hina fell by over one(fifth in one year recently from
D! percent in 2 !! to @ percent in 2 !2, accordin: to Pe% -esearch =lobal Attitudes Pro'ect& At a time of continued economic uncertainty in the 3nited +tates, issues such as 2hina8s alle:ed currency manipulation, the mammoth si)e of the 3+ trade deficit %ith 2hina and the lar:e 3+ financial debt held by 2hina, not to mention alle:ed 2hinese cybersecurity attac4s on American businesses and :overnment offices, has ta4en its toll on 3+ public opinion& Cn this conte5t, Yi must ri:htly reco:nise the need for better diplomacy and strate:ic communications to enable

stron:er international understandin: and appreciation of the country& 7hile this a:enda no% lac4s definition, it could prove symbolically po%erful for 2hina& +o a :ood startin: point at the summit %ould be clearer commitments to develop stron:er, 'oint 3+(2hina positions on 4ey issues, especially in Asia particularly a peaceful resolution of the 0orth >orea nuclear stand(off& Perhaps the most difficult issue to be addressed in the -ancho /ira:e, 2alifornia, meetin: is the sometimes ya%nin: :ap bet%een 2hina8s attractive culture and traditions and modern achievements such as its scientific pro:ress (admired by many forei:ners and a si:nificant source of soft po%er*, and the 2ommunist re:ime8s domestic actions& One case in point %as the stunnin: sta:in: of the Olympics in 2 B& 9he elaborate openin: ceremonies celebrated both
traditional and modern 2hinese culture and society, %hile underlinin: 1ei'in:8s clinical efficiency to sta:e ma'or events J thou:h forei:ners can sometimes interpret this ominously& 9his reMuires commitment to political chan:e, transparency and concrete steps

to%ards democratisation J and matchin: these %ords to deeds& /uch of the international community is unli4ely to %elcome 2hina as a peaceful, responsible %orld po%er if 1ei'in: re:ularly clamps do%n on 2hinese citi)ens see4in: domestic reform, includin: political dissidents, la%yers, human ri:hts activists and 'ournalists& A second issue to address is that, traditionally, there has been too little emphasis from 2hina on public diplomacy efforts to reach out directly to forei:n publics& Cnstead, 1ei'in: has often placed emphasis, especially in Africa and the /iddle Gast, on improvin:
%or4in: relationships %ith strate:ically important :overnments throu:h assistance pro:rammes that may not al%ays serve the interest of local people& 9he central problem here is that the communications of 2hinese state(driven public diplomacy often lac4

le:itimacy and credibility&

One solution is e5pandin: the numbers of individuals and non(state :roups includin: from civil society net%or4s,

2hinese diaspora communities, student and academic :roups and business net%or4s involved in public diplomacy& 7hile

this may ma4e 1ei'in: an5ious, it %ill only en(ance C(&nese soft po"er &n t(e lon) term& 9o confirm this, Yi needs only loo4 to the 3nited +tates, a nation that lon: en'oyed one of the best reputations in the %orld and derived much of this hi:h standin: from its rich and vibrant civil society and private sector, %hich are much admired by many international sta4eholders& Cndeed, enhancin: 2hina8s reputation is a :enerational tas4 that %ill reMuire not only sustained investment, but also si:nificant reform, durin: Yi8s presidency& C(&na7s soft po"er &s (&)( no" an% )ro"t( &ne+&ta3le N'eF 12 Professor at ;arvard and author of <9he Future of Po%er< (Joseph +&, 2hinaAs +oft Po%er 6eficit, 9he 7all +treet Journal, /ay B, http#$$online&%s'&com$article$+1! !@2@ D2E 2" @@D!! @DEE"B??2" ?BFEBB@2&html*$$QP C %as recently invited to lecture at several 2hinese universities about <soft po%er<Jthe ability to :et %hat one %ants by attraction and persuasion rather than coercion or payment& +ince the !?? s, thousands of essays and articles have been published in 2hina on the topic, and the lectures dre% lar:e cro%ds& Over the past decade, 2hinaAs economic and military mi:ht has :ro%n impressively& 9his has fri:htened its nei:hbors into loo4in: for allies to balance 2hinaAs increase in hard po%er& 1ut if a country can also increase its soft po%er of attraction, its nei:hbors feel less need to balance its po%er& For e5ample, 2anada and /e5ico do not see4 alliances %ith 2hina to balance 3&+& po%er the %ay Asian countries see4 a 3&+& presence to balance 2hina& Cn 2 E, understandin: this, President ;u Jintao told the !Eth 2on:ress of the 2hinese 2ommunist Party that 2hina needed to invest more in its soft po%er resources& 9hatAs a smart po%er strate:y, but 1ei'in: is havin: difficulty implementin: it& 2hina is spendin: billions of dollars to increase its soft po%er& Cts aid pro:rams to Africa and Katin America are not limited by the institutional or human ri:hts concerns that constrain 7estern aid& 9he 2hinese style emphasi)es hi:h(

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profile :estures, such as buildin: stadiums& /ean%hile, the elaborately sta:ed 2 B 1ei'in: Olympics enhanced 2hinaAs reputation abroad, and the 2 ! +han:hai G5po attracted more than E million visitors& 2hina has also created several hundred 2onfucius Cnstitutes around

the %orld to teach its lan:ua:e and culture& 9he enrollment of forei:n students in 2hina increased to 2@ , last year from 'ust "F, a decade a:o, and 2hina -adio Cnternational no% broadcasts in Gn:lish around the cloc4& Cn 2 ?(! , 1ei'in: invested [B&? billion in e5ternal publicity %or4, includin: 2@(hour cable ne%s channels& 1ut for all its efforts, 2hina has had a limited return on its investment& A recent 112 poll sho%s that opinions of 2hinaAs influence are positive in much of Africa and Katin America, but predominantly ne:ative in the 3nited +tates, every%here in Gurope, as %ell as in Cndia, Japan and +outh >orea& =reat po%ers try to use culture and narrative to create soft po%er that promotes their
national interests, but itAs not an easy sell %hen the messa:e is inconsistent %ith their domestic realities& As C told the university students, in an Cnformation A:e in %hich credibility is the scarcest resource, the best propa:anda is not propa:anda& 9he 2 B Olympics %as a success abroad, but shortly after%ard 2hinaAs domestic crac4do%n on human ri:hts activists undercut its soft(po%er :ains& 9he +han:hai G5po %as also a :reat

success, but it %as follo%ed by the 'ailin: of 0obel Peace Kaureate Kiu Yiaobo& ;is empty chair at the Oslo ceremony %as a po%erful symbol& And for all the efforts to turn Yinhua and 2hina 2entral 9elevision into competitors for 200 and the 112, there is little international audience for brittle propa:anda& 0o%, in the aftermath of the /iddle Gast revolutions, 2hina is clampin: do%n on the Cnternet and 'ailin: human ri:hts la%yers, once a:ain torpedoin: its soft(po%er campai:n& 0o amount of propa:anda can hide the fact that blind human ri:hts attorney 2hen =uan:chen:
recently sou:ht refu:e in the 3&+& Gmbassy in 1ei'in:& -ather than celebrate the heroes of today in civil society, the arts and the private sector, the 2ommunist Party has ta4en to promotin: the :reatness of 2hinese culture in :eneral and the historical si:nificance of the /iddle >in:dom& Pan: Zhon:yin:, a former 2hinese diplomat %ho teaches at -enmin 3niversity, says this reflects <a poverty of thou:ht< in 2hina today& 7hen Zhan: Pimou, the acclaimed director, %as as4ed %hy his films %ere al%ays set in the past, he replied that films about contemporary 2hina %ould be <neutered by the censors&< C read the students a recent statement by Ai 7ei%ei, the acclaimed 2hinese artist %hoAs suffered from state harassment& ;e %arned that censorship is underminin: creativity& <CtAs puttin: this nation behind in the %orldAs competition in the comin: decades& Pou canAt create :enerations 'ust to labor at \electronics manufacturer] Fo5conn& Gveryone %ants an iPhone but it %ould be impossible to desi:n an iPhone in 2hina because itAs not a productR itAs an understandin: of human nature&< +li:ht %aves of nervous lau:hter s%ept throu:h the audience %hen C mentioned Ai 7ei%eiAs name& 1ut from their Muestions, it seemed that some students a:reed %ith his vie% that itAs not possible for 2hinese leaders <to control the Cnternet unless they shut it offJand they canAt live %ith the conseMuences of that&< After C finished spea4in:, a party official told the students that the 2hinese approach to soft po%er should focus on culture, not politics& C hope this chan:es& 9he development of soft po%er need not be a )ero(sum :ame& Cf 2hinese soft po%er increases in the 3&+& and vice versa, it %ill help ma4e conflict less li4ely& All countries can :ain from findin: attraction in each

othersA cultures& 1ut for 2hina to succeed in this, its politics must unleash the talents of its civil society& >S soft po"er &s an alt cause to C(&nese soft po"er2 3alanc&n) &s #e' D'nonF */14 -eporter for 9he 6iplomat (0icholas, +oft Po%er# A 3&+&(2hina 1attle:roundH, 9he 6iplomat, F$!?$!", http#$$thediplomat&com$china(po%er$soft(po%er(a(u(s(china(battle:round$*$$QP 1ut to shape the %orld in non(7estern %ays means en:a:in: in a soft po%er battlespace a:ainst an incumbent %ho already holds the hi:h :round& Kiu comments that in re:ions deeply influenced by 7estern cultures, political systems and values, the latecomer 2hina is considered a dissident force&< 3nder such circumstances, it is rather difficult for 2hina to attract 7estern countries %ith its o%n political and cultural charisma, let alone to replace their positions& Accordin: to this and similar vie%points, 2hina8s difficulty in pro'ectin: soft po%er across the %orld is in part due to the %ay the 3&+& levera:es its o%n soft po%er& 7u Jianmin, the former president of 2hina8s Forei:n Affairs 3niversity, puts the point %ell %hen e5plainin: that 3&+& soft po%er is driven by the imperative of maintainin: 3+ he:emony in chan:in: the %orld, of lettin: the %orld listen to the 3nited +tates& 9hus, the state of :lobal post(colonial, post(communist ideational he:emony is such that lar:e s%athes of the earth8s population see the %orld throu:h lenses supplied by the 7est& 9hrou:h these lenses, perceptions of 2hina are dominated by such concepts as the 2hina threat theory, %hich portrays 2hina as a malevolent superpo%er upstart& 1ut it8s actually inside 2hina8s borders %here the soft po%er stru::le bet%een 2hina and the 3&+& is most prominent& !lan %oesn7t sol+e2 %oesn7t %o enou)( to sol+e cultureF pol&t&calF an% fore&)n pol&c&es of soft po"er2 no sol+enc' N'eF 6/24 Professor at ;arvard and author of <9he Future of Po%er< (Joseph +&, 7hat 2hina and -ussia 6onAt =et About +oft Po%er, Forei:n Policy, April 2?, 2 !", http#$$%%%&forei:npolicy&com$articles$2 !"$ @$2?$%hatLchinaLandLrussiaLdonLtL:etLaboutLsoftLpo%erH pa:eS ,!*$$QP 9he soft po%er of a country rests primarily on three resources# its culture (in places %here it is attractive to others*, its political values (%hen it lives up to them at home and abroad*, and its forei:n policies (%hen they are seen as le:itimate and havin: moral authority*& 1ut combinin: these resources is not al%ays easy& Gstablishin:, say, a 2onfucius Cnstitute in /anila to teach 2hinese culture mi:ht help produce soft po%er, but it is less li4ely to do so in a conte5t %here 2hina has 'ust bullied the Philippines over possession of +carborou:h -eef& +imilarly, Putin has told his diplomats that <the priority has been shiftin: to the literate use of
soft po%er, stren:thenin: positions of the -ussian lan:ua:e,< but as -ussian scholar +er:ei >ara:anov noted in the aftermath of the dispute %ith

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=eor:ia, -ussia has to use <hard po%er, includin: military force, because it lives in a much more dan:erous %orld &&& and because it has little soft po%er (( that is, social, cultural, political and economic attractiveness&< /uch of AmericaAs soft po%er is produced by civil society ((

everythin: from universities and foundations to ;olly%ood and pop culture (( not from the :overnment&
+ometimes the 3nited +tates is able to preserve a de:ree of soft po%er because of its critical and uncensored civil society even %hen :overnment actions (( li4e the invasion of CraM (( are other%ise underminin: it& 1ut in a smart po%er strate:y, hard and soft reinforce each other& Cn his ne% boo4, 2hina =oes =lobal, =eor:e 7ashin:ton 3niversityAs 6avid +hambau:h sho%s ho% 2hina has spent billions of dollars on a charm offensive to

increase its soft po%er& 2hinese aid pro:rams to Africa and Katin America are not limited by the institutional or human ri:hts concerns that constrain 7estern aid& 9he 2hinese style emphasi)es hi:h(profile :estures& 1ut for all its efforts, 2hina has earned a limited return on its investment& Polls sho% that opinions of 2hinaAs influence are positive in much of Africa and Katin America, but predominantly ne:ative in the 3nited +tates, Gurope, as %ell as Cndia, Japan and +outh >orea& Gven 2hinaAs soft(
po%er triumphs, such as the 2 B 1ei'in: Olympics, have Muic4ly turned stale& 0ot lon: after the last international athletes had departed, 2hinaAs domestic crac4do%n on human ri:hts activists undercut its soft po%er :ains& A:ain in 2 ?, the +han:hai G5po %as a :reat success, but it %as follo%ed by the 'ailin: of 0obel Peace Kaureate Kiu Yiaobo and screens %ere dominated by scenes of an empty chair at the Oslo ceremonies& Putin mi:ht li4e%ise count on a soft po%er boost from the +ochi Olympics, but if he continues to repress dissent, he, too, is li4ely to step on his o%n messa:e& 2hina and -ussia ma4e the mista4e of thin4in: that :overnment is the main instrument of soft po%er& Cn todayAs %orld, information is not scarce but attention is, and attention depends on credibility& =overnment propa:anda is rarely credible& 9he best propa:anda is not propa:anda& For all the efforts to turn Yinhua and 2hina 2entral 9elevision into competitors to 200 and the 112, there is little international audience for brittle propa:anda& As the Gconomist noted about 2hina, <the party has not bou:ht into /r& 0yeAs vie% that soft po%er sprin:s lar:ely from individuals, the private sector, and civil society& +o the :overnment has ta4en to promotin: ancient cultural icons %hom it thin4s mi:ht have :lobal appeal&< 1ut soft

po%er doesnAt %or4 that %ay& As Pan: Zhon:yin: of -enmin 3niversity put it, it hi:hli:hts <a poverty of thou:ht< amon: 2hinese leaders& 9he development of soft po%er need not be a )ero(sum :ame& All countries can :ain from findin: each other attractive& 1ut for 2hina and -ussia to succeed, they %ill need to match %ords and deeds in their policies, be self(critical, and unleash the full talents of their civil societies& 3nfortunately, that is not about to happen soon& C(&nese soft po"er %ecl&ne &ne+&ta3le &nternal fla"s an% resentmentL Burlant9&c#F 07 Qisitin: scholar in the 2arne:ie Gndo%ment8s 2hina Pro:ram (Joshua, 2harm Offensive# ;o% 2hinaAs +oft Po%er is 9ransformin: the 7orld, Pale 3niversity Press, p& 2"2(2"", http#$$yalepress&yale&edu$yupboo4s$boo4&aspHisbnS?EB " !!E "D*$$QP 2hina also may not be able to build its soft po%er indefinitely& As %e have seen, :reater familiarity %ith 2hina %ill e5pose many countries to the PeopleAs -epublicAs fla%s& 2hinaAs prom ises of aid and investment could ta4e years to materiali)e, yet 1ei'in: has created hei:htened e5pectations about its potential as a donor and investor in many countries& 2hinaAs e5portation of labor, environmental, and :overnance problems alien ates avera:e people in Asia, Katin America, and Africa& 2hinaAs support for autocratic rulers in countries li4e Zimbab%e and +udan an:ers civil society leaders and opposition politicians& Cf 1ei'in: seems to be droppin: its preference for noninterfer ence and <%in(%in< relations, it %ill spar4 fears in countries li4e Qietnam already suspicious of 2hina& Ct also could reinforce the idea that despite 1ei'in:As rhetoric of cooperation, %hen it comes to core interests, 2hina, li4e any :reat po%er, %ill thin4 of itself first& 9he
/e4on: -iver offers an obvious e5ample& 9hou:h 2hina promises to cooperate peacefully %ith other countries, in the development of the river, 2hina has proven both uncooperative and meddlin:& Ct has meddled by refusin: to 'oin the multilateral :roup monitorin: the river and by in'ectin: itself into other nationsA domestic politics to :et politicians to support 2hinaAs dammin: of the river& B 2hina could further alienate other

nations if it seems to be usin: multilateral institutions as a cover, %ithout 'ettison in: 1ei'in:As o%n more a::ressive, even military aims& 6espite si:nin: a deal %ith the Philippines and Qietnam for 'oint e5ploration of the disputed +outh 2hina +ea, 1ei'in: has not retracted its claim to lar:e s%aths of the %ater& Any 2hinese decision that appears arro:ant or tar:eted to%ard 2hinese domination of the re:ion %ill cause a bac4lash & Gven as officials in Qietnam si:ned
the 'oin e5ploration deal, they privately %arned that they still could not trust their 2hinese counterparts enou:h to share the most important data to 1ei'in:& 2hina8s trade relations , too, ultimately could limit its soft po%er& Cf 2hina builds the 4ind of trade surpluses

%ith the developin: %orld that it en'oys %ith the 3nited +tates, it could sto4e local resentment& Gventually, 1ei'in: could %ind up loo4in: little different to people in Asia or Africa or Katin America than the old colonial po%ers, %ho mined and
du: up their colonies, doin: little to improve the capacity of locals on the :round& 7hole re:ions could become trapped in a cycle of mercantilism, in %hich they sell natural resources to 2hina and buy hi:her(value manufactured 2hinese :oods&

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Cu3a Collapse/Aa&le% State

No &mpact to Cu3an collapse countless c(ec#s pre+ent escalat&on Cu3a Ne"sF 13 the %orldAs leadin: source of business information on 2uba (Analysis# 2uba is much stron:er today than after 3++-8s collapse in the !?? s, D$2 $2 !", http#$$%%%&cubane%s&com$sections$analysis(cuba(is(much(stron:er(today(than(after(ussrs(collapse(in(the( !?? s* $$ /+ 2uba %atchers are pushin: a ne% domino theory lately & 9hey su::est that an eventual defeat of chavismo in Qene)uela %ould spar4 an immediate collapse of the 2uban economy and %ith it the much a%aited political collapse of 2uba8s :overnment& 1ut those %ho ma4e such predictions seem to have short memories& 9hey should remember that in the late !?B s, the 2astro re:ime suddenly came face(to(face %ith an unprecedented crisis as the +oviet 3nion and its surro:ates in Gastern Gurope be:an to crumble& Actually, this %as the real domino theory and by !?B?, it %as in full s%in: by !?B?& Predictions %ere that 2uba could not survive the impact& ;undreds of forei:n correspondents floc4ed to ;avana 'ust %aitin: for the collapse to ta4e place, or the spar4 that %ould brin: about the much(e5pected outcome& Finally, they :ot tired of %aitin: and leftR 2D years later, they8re still %aitin:& Ct8s also important to remember that bet%een the late !?B s and !???, there
%as no savior named ;u:o 2hfve) or any :overnment :ivin: a%ay resources to 2uba& Cn 2 2, trade %ith Qene)uela %as only [F million a year, and it %as not until 2 "( @ that bilateral ties started to approach current levels& Any serious research today, after di::in: throu:h the many a:reements si:ned bet%een 2aracas and ;avana over the years, %ill sho% that lots of pro'ects are still floatin: in the air, far from any tan:ible implementation& Gven no%, after 0icolfs /aduro8s narro% Apr& !@ electoral victory, such predictions are bein: reformulated, adaptin: the ar:ument that his ne% chavista :overnment is under such economic pressure that it8ll soon be forced to scale bac4 or do a%ay totally %ith its current 2uba policy causin: ma'or havoc to 2uba8s financial and political stability& 9hese predictions are based on the follo%in: analysis# Qene)uela is :ivin: a%ay about a third of its oil production at belo%(mar4et prices, the Qene)uelan oil sector is unli4ely to improve si:nificantly in the short term, re:ardless of domestic politics, and the Qene)uelan economy is in serious trouble& Cndeed, inflation e5ceeds " I compared to Katin America8s avera:e of EI, traditional debt is risin:, and so is Qene)uela8s fiscal deficit& On the other hand, many e5perts a:ree that Qene)uela8s oil transfers to 2uba alon: %ith Petrocaribe as a %hole are threatened only if oil prices fall belo% [ED a barrel, somethin: that seems no%here in si:ht& As 9rinidadian economic consultant Antho(ny 1ryan recently %rote# President /aduro %ill most li4ely maintain Petrocaribe& 1ut domestic fiscal constraints %ill force his administration to reduce forei:n aid& Cn this scenario, maintainin: aid to 2uba %ould be a priority since the 2astro brothers are strate:ic allies& A stron: relation %ith the 2astro re:ime is also /aduro8s main path to 'ustify his revolutionary credentials in the post(2hfve) era& G5(2hilean President -icardo Ka:os offers a similar approach# C don8t believe 2hfve)8s successor %ill proceed to revie% the political alliances for:ed %ith the AK1A states& -eali:nments %ill not ta4e place immediately& +imilarly, 3niversity of Pittsbur:h economics professor and 2uba scholar 2armelo /esa(Ka:o cautions a:ainst

such apocalyptical predictions& 9he impact %ould be po%erful but not as severe as the loss of +oviet(bloc support and trade t%o decades a:o, he said, %ritin: in the 2ubaencuentro %ebsite& /esa(Ka:o added that this e5treme scenario %ould ta4e place only in the case of a substantial reduction or the endin: of Qene)uelan aid& 9he Muestion then becomes# ho% prepared is 2uba to deal %ith such an impact compared to the +oviet collapse of 2D years a:oH +everal factors must be considered here& . For one, the old system is fadin: a%ay& Cn its place, a socialist mar4et economy is risin:, than4s to several 4ey reforms some of %hich have already been implemented, others %hich %ill become la% soon& 9he :ro%in: private sector no% involves more than @ I of 2uba8s %or4in: population & Cn some places, D I of a:ricultural production is sold throu:h private channels& 0one of this e5isted before& 9he trend to%ard reform in 2uba is evident, and su::ests that an inflection point is approachin:, %rites noted 2uba scholar 9ed Piccone of the 1roo4in:s Cnstitution& 0o% is the time to employ a ne% paradi:m by openin: a lon: overdue direct dialo:ue %ith our ne5t(door nei:hbor & A number of Guropean 3nion
member states a:ree& 9hey8ve restored cooperation %ith 2uba, %hile others say they8ll revie% the G38s seemin:ly outdated posician com_n& 9hat %ould have been inconceivable follo%in: the +oviet collapse& . Gconomic activities li4e tourism %hich %ere almost non(e5istent in

!?? today have become crucial sources of employment and hard currency& -esearch, production and e5ports of biotech and pharmaceuticals ne:li:ible 2D years a:o today e5ceed [2 billion a year, and by 2 !B could e5ceed [D billion& 9he same is true %hen it comes to 2uban doctors sent abroad, %hether to An:ola, Qene)uela or ,atar& . -emittances amounted to ne5t to nothin: in the !?B s& 9oday they brin: in several billion dollars a year, thou:h accurate estimates of 'ust ho% much are nearly impossible to come by& 9hose remittances are helped by the @ , 2ubans livin: abroad mostly in the 3&+& %ho visited the island in 2 !2& Jor:e 6uany, head of Florida Cnternational 3niversity8s
2uban -esearch Cnstitute, su::ests that ! I to 2 I of these 2ubans %ould consider :oin: bac4 to the island of their birth as a second place of residence& +ince 2 ! , several thousand e5iles have actually done so& /ean%hile, says 6uany, most 2ubans livin: the 3nited +tates %ould be ready to travel to 2uba to support its development and economic reconstruction an unthin4able development t%o decades a:o& . Cn the early !?? s,

2uba had almost no oil or :as& 9hese days, the island meets D I of its needs %ith local hydrocarbons& 6espite three initial ma'or setbac4s, several forei:n ener:y companies continue to drill e5ploratory %ells off 2uba8s =ulf of /e5ico coast& . 0ic4el production, one of the lifesavers of the early !?? s, is no% bac4 on its feet after overcomin: serious technolo:ical challen:es and a slump in %orld prices & 9he industry plans to produce F!,E metric tons of
nic4el plus cobalt this year, and by 2 !D it should surpass the E@, tons it avera:ed annually durin: much of the past decade& /uch of this depends on the scheduled openin: in 2 !@ of a 'oint(venture ferronic4el plant under construction %ith Qene)uela& 9he [E million facility %ill produce 2!, tons of nic4el a year once it8s up and runnin:& Cn fact, nic4el for many years has been 2uba8s top cash e5port, althou:h prices have been very unstable& .

7ith construction proceedin: at the port of /ariel and a pendin: investment la%, 2uba is :ettin: ready to

Nuclear War MICHIGAN 7WS 2013 132/221 ma4e a ma'or effort to attract forei:n investors& 9he /ariel pro'ect, as 2uban President -a_l 2astro recently pointed out, %ill serve as a model for the promotion of ne% Zonas Gspeciales de 6esarrollo (ZG6s*, or special development )ones& . 2uba has much more diversified trade partners and mar4ets than it did 2 years a:o& 9he island8s priorities include all five 1-C2+ countries, but especially 2hina, -ussia and 1ra)il& Gven the 3nited +tates has become an important mar4et, thou:h only for food purchases ([E!!&D million in 2 B, fallin: to [@FD million in 2 !2*& . At the same time, 2uba8s forei:n debt has been do%nsi)ed considerably than4s to final arran:ements %ith ma'or creditors as -ussia and Japan, follo%ed by partial payments and reschedulin: %ith other countries outside the Paris 2lub & 9he 2CA Factboo4 puts 2uba8s forei:n e5chan:e and :old reserves at [D&2" billion, compared to near()ero in the early !?? s& . 2uba is also much more active diplomatically in the 7estern ;emisphere and the %orld in :eneral than it %as in the early ^? s & 9he
island achieved si:nificant victories at various re:ional summits in +alvador (1ra)il*, Port of +pain (9rinidad*, +an Pedro +ula (;onduras*, 2arta:ena (2olombia* and +antia:o (2hile*& And this year, 2uba %as elected president pro tempore of 2GKA2& Cn the last three years, many of the

hemisphere8s heads of state have visited 2uba see4in: better relations & Cn historical terms, the Katin American ^lefts8 because
there is not one but many from chavismo to social democrats, are e5periencin: a :ood period and have perspectives of continuity, said international relations professor Julio 1urdman of Ar:entina8s 3niversidad de 1el:rano& Gi:ht out of ! +outh American countries fit this pattern not bad at all for 2uba& . Finally, critics of Qene)uela8s oil and trade policies %ithin Petrocaribe tend to characteri)e relations as

:ivin: a%ay resources or call them subsidies& 1ut the 3nited +tates and Gurope8s former colonial empires resorted to such
practices, and continue to do so today& Cn the early ^B s, /e5ico and Qene)uela (lon: before 2hfve) and /aduro* a:reed on such an oil arran:ement, and it %as called the +an Josg 9reaty& +o the policies themselves are not %ron:R they8re only %ron: %hen the chavistas do it& 9he latter conduct trade based on policies and terms lin4ed to their domestic and re:ional :oals or national interests& 9radin: oil for doctors is not simply a financial transactionR it also has social and political considerations& Gven the 2CA doesn8t call it a :ivea%ay or a subsidyR it prefers the more ac(curate description, oil on preferential terms&

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Democrac'
Democrat&c peace t(eor' &s false an% use% to :ust&f' "ar ot(er factors e1pla&n lac# of confl&ct Worle'F 12 +enior Fello%, Johns ;op4ins 2enter for Advanced =overnmental +tudies (6& -obert, 6emocratic PeaceH ;uffin:ton Post, ?$2, http#$$%%%&huffin:tonpost&com$d(robert(%orley$democratic( peaceLbL!B@EF@"&html*$$+P 9hrou:hout its history the +oviet 3nion attempted to spread its political and economic system re:ionally and :lobally& ;oldin: to:ether the disparate 2aucasus, 1altic, and 2entral Asian +oviet +ocialist -epublics, defendin: Gastern Guropean states, proppin: up client states li4e 2uba, and intervenin: in third(%orld insur:encies, led to its e5haustion and collapse& 9he 3nited +tates, too, has attempted to spread its political and economic system, and spreadin: democracy has become a common 'ustification for %ar in the 3nited +tates, sometimes in the name of humanitarian intervention& Cs spreadin: democracy the path to security or the path to e5haustionH 9odayAs Kiberals and 2onservatives tout the democratic peace theory and advocate the spread of liberal democracy as the path to 3&+& and international security& 9he use of military force to spread democracy throu:h multilateral institutions li4e 7oodro% 7ilsonAs Kea:ue of 0ations and Fran4lin -ooseveltAs 3nited 0ations had lon: been the preferred method of the 6emocratic Party& /ore recently, usin: force to spread democracy has been adopted by the ne% -epublican Party throu:h unilaterally initiated action %ith %hatever contributions mi:ht be made by an ad hoc coalition of the %illin:& Presidents 2linton and 1ush increased the operational tempo of military force tenfold over 2old 7ar levels& 9he belief in democratic peace((that democracies tend not to %ar, or that democracies tend not to %ar a:ainst each other((%as used to 'ustify the use of force around the %orld to spread democracy& 9he issue has been sub'ected to ri:orous empirical studies by scholars %ith impeccable credentials, and the issue is far from resolved& Political scientists have a:reed to a definition of %ar but are in less in a:reement on %hat constitutes a democratic :overnment& -e:ular citi)ens mi:ht le:itimately disa:ree %ith the technical definition of %ar, but those %ho study %ar have settled and most studies rely on the consensus definition& /any uses of force fail to meet the criteria, includin: 3&+& covert operations a:ainst left(leanin: democracies durin: the 2old 7ar& CtAs easy enou:h to define democracy in such a %ay that no democracies have %a:ed %ars a:ainst each other& CtAs also easy enou:h to define democracy so that there are plenty of e5amples As for the %ar proneness of democratic re:imes, the over%helmin: evidence is that stable democracies and stable autocracies are eMually prone to %ar, but they are much less prone to %ar than are states transitionin: bet%een the t%o forms of :overnment& +table :overnments are less prone to %ar than unstable :overnments in transition& =iven this evidence, one should easily have anticipated a period of %idespread hostility after communist re:imes and re:imes artificially propped up by the +oviet 3nion collapsed& 9he authors %arned a:ainst the <nauve enthusiasm for spreadin: peace by promotin: democrati)ation&< +preadin: democracy by forced re:ime chan:e follo%ed by nation buildin:, or by supportin: popular revolutions, %ill create %ar prone democracies in the near term& 9he hoped for peace dividend %ill come only after the fled:lin: democracies become stable& Gvidence from CraM and Af:hanistan su::ests that %ill ta4e many years& As for democracies not %arrin: a:ainst each other, advocates for spreadin: democracy by force often cite an important !?EF study spannin: !B!F to !?FD& 9he authors observed that democracies durin: much of the period %ere fe% and dispersed& +imple :eo:raphy((states %a:e %ars a:ainst nei:hbors, and democracies %erenAt nei:hbors((may be a better e5planation than form of :overnment& 9he studyAs authors %ere s4eptical about the claim that democracy e5plained the correlation& CtAs ironic that this study is so often cited as the basis of the democratic peace theory& 6emocratic peace theory is only one theory e5plainin: past and predictin: future international behavior& 6urin: the 2old 7ar, many democracies entered into alliance a:ainst communist re:imes and :iven the common threat %ere unli4ely to %ar a:ainst each other& /ore broadly, there are other e5planations lumped under the idealist and realist schools of international relations theories& 9he idealist school offers several complementary e5planations& +ociolo:ical liberalism ar:ues for the dampenin: effect of transnational social bonds li4e shared lan:ua:e or reli:ion& Cnterdependence liberalism focuses on economic interdependence as a dampenin: effect& Cnstitutional liberalism places hi:h value on the cooperative opportunities provided by international institutionsR a pattern of cooperation reduces the li4elihood of %ar& -epublican liberalism elevates the republican form of :overnment((the democratic peace theory&

Nuclear War MICHIGAN 7WS 2013 136/221 9he realist school focuses on interests and po%er& +tates are acMuisitive and competitive& 2onflict is inevitable& +urvival of the state is vital, and only po%er assures survival& -ealists differ on ho% much po%er is enou:h& +ome favor only defensive po%er and others ar:ue for offensive po%er& Cn bet%een are those %ho thin4 in terms of balancin: po%er, that is, po%er that can be a::re:ated throu:h a coalition based on shared interests that is sufficient to deter or defeat a threat to those interests& +till, the democratic peace theory is used to 'ustify intervention and re:ime chan:e to spread democracy and thereby assure peace& As the late =ore Qidal sardonically called it, <Perpetual 7ar for Perpetual Peace&< -ealists since 9hucydides have asserted <that states e5pand in the absence of countervailin: po%erR unbalanced po%er %ill act %ithout moderation, and states not sub'ect to e5ternal restraint tend to observe fe% limits on their behavior&< 9here are 'ustifications for %ar, but 'ustifyin: the use of military force to spread democracy should be vie%ed %ith some s4epticism& Democrat&c peace t(eor' &s "ron) %emocrac&es are e+en more l&#el' to )o to "ar /ar&sonF 12 Ph6 in ;istory, 3niversity of 2hica:o (6aniel, 6emocratic Peace 9heory Cs False, American 2onservative, @$!E, http#$$%%%&theamericanconservative&com$larison$democratic(peace(theory(is(false$*$$+P -o'as8 claim depends entirely on the meanin: of :enuine democracy& Gven thou:h there are numerous e5amples of %ars bet%een states %ith universal male suffra:e and elected :overnments (includin: that little dust(up 4no%n as 77C*, the states in Muestion probably don8t Mualify as :enuine democracies and so can8t be used as counter(e5amples& -e:ardless, democratic peace theory dra%s broad conclusions from a short period in modern history %ith very fe% cases before the 2 th century& 9he core of democratic peace theory as C understand it is that democratic :overnments are more accountable to their populations, and because the people %ill bear the costs of the %ar they are :oin: to be less %illin: to support a %ar policy& 9his supposedly 4eeps democratic states from %a:in: %ars a:ainst one another because of the built(in electoral and institutional chec4s on :overnment po%er& One small problem %ith this is that it is rubbish& 6emocracies in antiMuity fou:ht a:ainst one another& Political eMuality and votin: do not abolish conflicts of interest bet%een competin: states& 6emocratic peace theory doesn8t account for the effects of nationalist and imperialist ideolo:ies on the %ay democratic nations thin4 about %ar& 6emocratic nations that have professional armies to do the fi:htin: for them are often enthusiastic about overseas %ars& 9he 2onservative( 3nionist :overnment that %a:ed the +outh African 7ar (a:ainst t%o states %ith elected :overnments, C mi:ht add* en'oyed :reat popular support and %on a hu:e ma'ority in the >ha4i election that follo%ed& As lon: as it :oes %ell and doesn8t have too many costs, %ar can be Muite popular, and even if the %ar is costly it may still be popular if it is fou:ht for nationalist reasons that appeal to a ma'ority of the public& Cf the public is %hipped into thin4in: that there is an intolerable forei:n threat or if they believe that their country can :ain somethin: at relatively lo% cost by :oin: to %ar, the type of :overnment they have really is irrelevant& 3nless a democratic public believes that a military conflict %ill :o badly for their military, they may be ready to %elcome the outbrea4 of a %ar that they e5pect to %in& +ettin: aside the fla%s and failures of 3&+&(led democracy promotion for a moment, the idea that reducin: the number of non(democracies ma4es %ar less li4ely is 'ust fantasy& 2lashin: interests bet%een states aren8t :oin: a%ay, and the more democratic states there are in the %orld the more li4ely it is that t%o or more of them %ill eventually fi:ht one another& Democrac' fa&ls &n pre+ent&n) confl&ct pol&t&cal &nterests %eterm&ne "(et(er nat&ons )o to "arF re)ar%less of pu3l&c constra&n $(atna)arF 11 Associate Fello%, Observer -esearch Foundation (Aryaman, 9he 6emocratic Peace 9hesis# 0ot a Force for Peace After All, Cnternational Politics, Gner:y T 2ulture, ! $!!, http#$$inpec&in$the( democratic(peace(thesis(not(a(force(for(peace(after(all$*$$+P 9his essay %ill attempt to evaluate liberalism as a force for peace in li:ht of criticism a:ainst the 6emocratic Peace 9hesis& /y main ar:ument is that liberalism by itself is not enou:h to create, preserve or e5plain the e5istence of peace bet%een nations& 7hile liberal states themselves do not al%ays stay a%ay from conflict, there are also other factors that play an important role in creatin: peace& /oreover, C %ill also sho% ho% the belief of liberalism as a force of peace can create %ar& 6emocracies and the 3se of Force

Nuclear War MICHIGAN 7WS 2013 135/221 6o democratic states stay at peace %ith each other %hen their interests clashH Cf one loo4s at empirical e5amples then it can be said that democracies are still %illin: to use force in order to achieve their ends even a:ainst democracies (/acmillan, !??F, p&2B!*& 7hen interests clash even liberal states tend to behave li4e any other states, bar:ainin: hard, issuin: threats and, at times, usin: military force& Cn such situations, the nature of the adversary re:ime is of very little value as vested interests tend to out%ei:h the liberal principles& 9he 3+ intervention in the developin: %orld durin: the 2old 7ar period testifies this fact as the containment of 2ommunism too4 precedence over respect for fello% democracies& 9he 2CA helped in overthro%in: democratic :overnments in 2hile, Cran, =uatemala and 0icara:ua replacin: them %ith more authoritarian re:imes (-osato, 2 ", p&D? *& 7ars bet%een democracies have also ta4en place due to the fi5ity in the definition of democracy& As a result, a he:emonic liberalism defines out other historically valid democratic claims and may license violence a:ainst them (1ar4a%i and Kaffey, !???, p&@ ?*& 9his is ho% the invasions of a number of democracies, as stated above, durin: the 2old 7ar %ere 'ustified by the 3+& /oreover, the mutual respect and trust bet%een democracies can be maintained only if they consider each other to be liberal& 1ut in the absence of any coherent mechanism to cate:orise democracies, the perceptions of states re:ardin: the re:ime type of another state comes into picture& 9hey often :et another state8s re:ime type %ron:, thereby, lessenin: our confidence in the fact that ob'ectively democratic states %ill not fi:ht one another (-osato, 2 ", p&D?2*& Ct should also be noted that democratic norms and institutions do not cause democracies to behave differently from non(democracies in systematic %ays (-osato, 2 D, p&@FE*& 9he public constrain, for instance, acts as a very small deterrent on the state8s decision to :o to %ar& Cf it %as a ma'or constraint then it %ould be able to prevent them from :oin: to %ar even a:ainst the non(democracies (-osato, 2 ", p&D?@* as the public should feel sensitive about the human and material cost of %ar %ith any state& At times, the public may actually %elcome %ar as %as seen durin: 77!, %hich %as %elcomed by the public in all participatin: countries of Gurope, even thou:h, some of them %ere fi:htin: other liberal states& /oreover, these democratic structures are as li4ely to drive states to %ar as to restrain them from it& 2abinets, le:islatures and public %ere often more belli:erent than the :overnment heads they %ere supposed to constrain (O%en, !??@, p&?!*& 9hese can be belli:erent to%ards democracies as %ell& 9his %as evident durin: the build up to 77!&

Democrac' promot&on fa&ls mult&ple e1amples Burlant9&c#F 11 (Joshua, 9he =reat 6emocracy /eltdo%n, 0e% -epublic, D$!?, http#$$%%%&ne%republic&com$article$%orld$ma:a)ine$BBF"2$failin:(democracy(vene)uela(arab(sprin:*$$+P Cf only thin:s %ere so simple& 9he truth is that the Arab +prin: is somethin: of a smo4escreen for %hat is ta4in: place in the %orld as a %hole& Around the :lobe, it is democratic meltdo%ns, not democratic revolutions, that are no% the norm& (And even countries li4e G:ypt and 9unisia, %hile certainly freer today than they %ere a year a:o, are hardly :uaranteed to replace their autocrats %ith real democracies&* Cn its most recent annual survey, the monitorin: :roup Freedom ;ouse found that :lobal freedom plummeted for the fifth year in a ro%, the lon:est continuous decline in nearly @ years& Ct pointed out that most authoritarian nations had become even more repressive, that the decline in freedom %as most pronounced amon: the middle :round of nations Jcountries that have be:un democrati)in: but are not solid and stable democraciesJand that the number of electoral democracies currently stands at its lo%est point since !??D& /ean%hile, another recent survey, compiled by =ermany8s 1ertelsmann Foundation, spo4e of a :radual Mualitative erosion of democracy and concluded that the number of hi:hly defective democraciesJdemocracies so fla%ed that they are close to bein: failed states, autocracies, or bothJhad doubled bet%een 2 F and 2 ! & 9he number of anecdotal e5amples is over%helmin:& From -ussia to Qene)uela to 9hailand to the Philippines, countries that once appeared to be developin: into democracies today seem headed in the other direction& +o many countries no% remain stuc4 some%here bet%een authoritarianism and democracy, report /arc Plattner and Karry 6iamond, co(editors of the Journal of 6emocracy, that it no lon:er seems plausible to re:ard \this condition] simply as a temporary sta:e in the process of democratic transition& Or as an activist from 1urmaJ lon: one of the %orld8s most repressive countriesJtold me after movin: to 9hailand and %atchin: that country8s democratic system disinte:rate, 9he other countries %ere supposed to chan:e 1urma& &&& 0o% it seems li4e they are becomin: li4e 1urma&

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Democrac' fa&ls !a#&stan pro+es !etersF 5 Former Kieutenant 2olonel, 3nited +tates Army and /ember, 1oard of 2ontributors, 3+A 9oday (-alph, 7hen democracy fails, 3+A 9oday, !$! , http#$$usatoday" &usatoday&com$ne%s$opinion$2 D( !( ! (democracy(pa4istanL5&htmHcspS"@*$$+P 9he problem is that it doesnAt al%ays %or4& As the vital CraMi elections approach, there is more reason for sober optimism than for pre(emptive declarations of failure& /ore than B I of the countryAs population is an5ious to vote, %ith only forei:n terrorists and an embittered minority of +unni Arabs actively hostile to the ballotin:& 1ut %e need to thin4 beyond the polls to understand ho% ne% democracies fail& Pa4istan has been the :reatest disappointment amon: the ma'or states that tried democracy& Ct should have been a contender, havin: be:un its nationhood %ith a le:acy of 1ritish le:al traditions, an educated political class and a vi:orous press& Cnstead, Pa4istan became a s%amp of corruption, dema:o:y and hatred& 9hose %ho believe in democracy need to reco:ni)e an u:ly truth# /ilitary :overnment remains Pa4istanAs final hope J and even that hope is a sli:ht one& 9his is painful for us to accept& 7ell(intentioned Americans %ith no personal e5perience of the outra:eous criminality that came to characteri)e every one of Pa4istanAs ma'or political parties rebel a:ainst the notion that any military :overnment can ever be :ood& 2ertainly, military re:imes are despicable& =en& Perve) /usharrafAs :overnment, albeit imperfect, is the sole e5ception in the %orld today& -fforts to esta3l&s( %emocrac' &n /at&n Amer&ca fa&l res&l&ence of aut(or&tar&an re)&mes pro+es Darem3lumF 13 6irector, 2enter for Katin American +tudies, ;udson Cnstitute (Jaime, Katin America8s 6emocracy 9est, ;udson Cnstitute, !$2@, http#$$%%%&hudson&or:$inde5&cfmH fuseactionSpublicationLdetailsTidS?@E@*$$+P Cn the summer of 2 ?, Katin America %ent into full(blo%n crisis mode %hen the democratic institutions of ;onduras removed an aspirin: autocrat, /anuel Zelaya, from the presidency& ;onduran officials %ere char:ed %ith orchestratin: a military coup, and several had their diplomatic visas revo4ed by the Obama administration& /ean%hile, their country %as suspended from the Or:ani)ation of American +tates& And yet, a 3&+& Ka% Kibrary of 2on:ress study concluded that <the 'udicial and le:islative branches applied constitutional and statutory la% in the case a:ainst President Zelaya in a manner that %as 'ud:ed by the ;onduran authorities from both branches of the :overnment to be in accordance %ith the ;onduran le:al system< (my emphasis*& 9hree years later, a similar crisis occurred %hen Para:uayan la%ma4ers voted nearly unanimously to impeach and convict President Fernando Ku:o for <poor performance of his duties&< 9he lo%er(house vote to impeach Ku:o %as EF to !R the upper(house vote to convict him %as "? to @& 7hile Ku:o should have been :iven more time to prepare and mount his defense, he %as not entitled to more time under the la%, and Para:uayAs independent supreme court :ave the %hole process a constitutional imprimatur& +till, that didnAt prevent ;u:o 2hfve) and his acolytes from labelin: it a coup& Para:uay %as Muic4ly suspended from the /ercosur trade :roup, and officials throu:hout the re:ion e5pressed :reat concern at Ku:oAs removal& 9hey %ere much less concerned %ith evidence that Qene)uela and Gcuador had tried to provo4e a military revolt a:ainst the la%fully appointed post(Ku:o :overnment& C recount this history because Katin America is no% facin: a real constitutional crisis, in Qene)uela, and the re:ionAs most influential countries have responded %ith a collective shru:& 7e 4no% that Qene)uelan leader ;u:o 2hfve), %ho %on reelection on October E, is incapacitated %ith cancer& 7e 4no% that he has under:one multiple sur:eries in 2uba& And %e 4no% that he %as too ill to attend his inau:uration ceremony, %hich %as scheduled for January ! & 1ut %e donAt 4no% 'ust ho% sic4 2hfve) actually is, and %e donAt 4no% %hether he %ill ever be able to resume his duties as president& 9he Qene)uelan re:ime and its 2uban allies have stubbornly refused to allo% independent doctors to confirm the precise nature of 2hfve)As condition& Officially, he remains president, even thou:h he %as not s%orn in before the Qene)uelan national assembly or the Qene)uelan supreme court&

Nuclear War MICHIGAN 7WS 2013 137/221 Cn other %ords, 2hfve) loyalists have decided to ma4e a moc4ery of the !??? Qene)uelan constitution J the same constitution that 2hfve) and his cronies %ere responsible for draftin: J %hich stipulates that the president must ta4e his oath before the la%ma4ers or the 'ustices by January ! & C;+ =lobal Cnsi:ht analyst 6ie:o /oya(Ocampos, %ho previously served as chief secretary to the Qene)uelan attorney :eneralAs office, has called their actions <a breach of the constitutional order and an institutional coup %here state institutions are used to undermine the democratic order&< 2hfve)As desi:nated successor is 0icolfs /aduro, %ho serves as both vice president and forei:n minister& 7ith his mentor confined to a 2uban hospital bed, /aduro has emer:ed as Qene)uelaAs de facto leader& Kast %ee4, for e5ample, he delivered a state(of(the(union address& 1ut /aduro continues to insist that the cancer(stric4en 2hfve) %ill eventually return from his current incapacity& As the %ee4s :o by, fe%er and fe%er Qene)uelans believe him& 3nder the 1olivarian constitution, a presidentAs temporary absence reMuires the vice president to assume Qene)uelaAs hi:hest office, %hereas a permanent absence reMuires the spea4er of the national assembly to fill the post until a ne% president is elected& 9hus, if the :overnment %ere actually obeyin: the la%, either /aduro or 6iosdado 2abello %ould formally have ta4en po%er& Cnstead, both men are adamant that 2hfve) is still in char:e, and both have brushed aside the le:itimate constitutional ar:uments put for%ard by the democratic opposition& Cf Qene)uelan democrats %ere hopin: to receive si:nificant support from else%here in Katin America, they have been disappointed& 0obody seems particularly bothered that the 2hfve) re:ime has blatantly violated the constitution and effectively launched an <institutional coup&< +adly, the re:ionAs Muiet acMuiescence does not come as a bi: surprise& For many years no%, Katin America has follo%ed a risible double standard& 7hen a pro(2hfve) thu: such as /anuel Zelaya or a leftist such as Fernando Ku:o is le:ally andconstitutionally removed from office, Qene)uela and its partners (Ar:entina, 1olivia, 2uba, Gcuador, 0icara:ua* scream bloody murder and bully other countries into follo%in: suit& ;o%ever, %hen a member of the 2hfve) :an: launches a :enuine attac4 on democracy, the re:ion is mostly silent& 9his double standard has emboldened 6aniel Orte:a to steal elections in 0icara:ua& Ct has emboldened -afael 2orrea to persecute 'ournalists in Gcuador& Ct has emboldened Gvo /orales to brutali)e his critics in 1olivia& Ct has emboldened 2ristina >irchner to lie about economic data and %a:e %ar on opposition media outlets in Ar:entina& And it has emboldened 2hfve) and his follo%ers to systematically destroy democracy in Qene)uela& /a4e no mista4e# 9he on:oin: constitutional crisis in 2aracas is not merely a dilemma for Qene)uela& Ct is also a test of Katin AmericaAs %illin:ness to stand up for democracy& -i:ht no%, the re:ion is failin: that test&

>S %emocrac' promot&on &n /at&n Amer&ca emp&r&call' fa&ls use% to promote self2&nterest &nstea% of re)&onal sta3&l&t' G&l3ertF ? 1A, Political +cience, Gastern /ichi:an 3niversity (+teve, 9he 3&+& Policy of 6emocracy Promotion in Katin America, +enior ;onors 9heses,http#$$commons&emich&edu$c:i$vie%content&c:iH articleS!!@ETconte5tShonors*$$+P ;istorically the promotion of democracy has not been a 4ey policy concern of the 3&+& 6urin: the 2old 7ar, the 3&+& %as %illin: to overthro% democracies and support authoritarian re:imes& 9he containment of communism %as used as 'ustification for supportin: and fundin: brutal dictatorships that committed %idespread human ri:hts violations& 3&+& support for Operation 2ondor and fundin: to 2olombia, sho% that the 3&+& bolstered Katin American militaries in order to prevent social chan:e and economic nationalism& Gven thou:h Katin America has e5perienced democrati)ation since the !?B s, the 3&+& has only been interested in promotin: a lo%(intensity form of democracy& Ct see4s to promote rule by technocratic elites& 9hese re:imes are effective in containin: and defusin: pressure for popular social chan:e by creatin: a sense of le:itimacy& 9hey offer a stable form of domination that provides a political environment suitable for :lobali)ation& 9he administrations of 2alderan and 3ribe are models for this 3&+& brand of democracy& Cn the Post 2old(7ar era, the 3&+& has three main policy interests# to maintain its supremacy, to ensure its technolo:ical lead and military superiority, and to create an economic environment favorable to American business& 9he cases of Qene)uela and ;aiti sho% that %hen Katin American democracies threaten 3&+& interests, the 3&+& %ill intervene to undermine or overthro% them& 9he 3&+& creates a situation of internal

Nuclear War MICHIGAN 7WS 2013 13?/221 destabili)ation by stran:lin: the economy and stren:thenin: opposition :roups or parties& Cn reality, the 3&+& policy of democracy promotion is used as 'ustification for the promotion of 3&+& economic and political interests that maintain 3&+& dominance in the re:ion&

>S %emocrac' promot&on fa&ls &n /at&n Amer&ca confl&ct&n) &nterests an% %omest&c pressures GMAF 12 (=erman /arshall Fund of the 3nited +tates, 6emocracy Promotion and 0ation 1uildin: in 3nited +tates Forei:n Policy(9he 3&+& /odel -econsidered, !!$!B, http#$$%%%&:mfus&or:$archives$democracy(promotion(and(nation(buildin:(in(united(states(forei:n(policy( the(u(s(model(reconsidered(from(the(post(cold(%ar(bal4ans(to(the(arab(revolts$*$$+P Professor James 2ohen, also dealin: %ith democracy promotion in Katin America, pointed out the diver:ences bet%een the 3nited +tates8 strate:ic aims in the re:ion and its a:enda in terms of democracy promotion& 9he Obama administration did not fundamentally chan:e this fact# the American en:a:ement %ith Katin America has remained inconsistent and sub'ected to lobbies and domestic pressures& Professor 2ohen notably illustrated his ar:ument by usin: the e5amples of 2olombia (%here the 3nited +tates are openin: seven ne% military bases %hile promotin: the autonomy of the continent* and ;onduras (%here a military coup %as portrayed as democratic by 7ashin:ton as it overthre% a rather leftist leader and had positive implications in terms of antidru: policies*& >S %emocrac' promot&on &s mot&+ate% 3' self2&nterest an% fa&ls emp&r&call' pro+en &n /at&n Amer&ca Mousa+& an% He'%ar&F 11 Cranian Ambassador to 2anada A06 /asters +tudent, American +tudies, 3niversity of 9ehran (/ohammad A&, 9he 0ature of 3+ 6emocracy Promotion Policy# -eality versus Cllusion 9he 2ase of CraM, Cnternational Journal of ;umanities and +ocial +cience, Qolume ! , 0umber, 2 , 6ecember, http#$$%%%&i'hssnet&com$'ournals$QolL!L0oL2 L6ecemberL2 !!$!!&pdf*$$+P Accordin:ly, America^s record of promotin: democracy made many doubt that it is a :enuine :oal for American officials as some e5perts (for e5ample, 2homs4y, !??2R -obinson, !??F, 2 @R +ch%eller, 2 @* ar:ue that American democracy promotion is a red herrin: to attain national interest, especially, economic ones& Anastasio +omo)a, 0icara:uan :eneral and president, created a dynasty of dictators and ruled the country brutally for @" years but %ith support of America& All of this su::ests that 3+ democracy promotion policy is not to build democratic states for the benevt of their citi)ensJa :lance at 3&+& support of authoritarian re:imes from +outheast Asia to Katin America appears to :ive such an impression (Feldman, 2 @*& America^s fic4le record of commitment to support democratic :overnments, especially once they are considered unreliable allies to 7ashin:ton is obviousR some cases are the 3+ intervention to overthro% elected :overnment in Cran in !?D", =uatemala in !?D@, and 1ra)il in the mid!?F s, and 2hili in !?E", thou:h, they are seen as out:ro%th of the 2old 7ar circumstances (1unce and 7olchi4, 2 D*& Democrac' promot&on &s unsuccessful &n /at&n Amer&ca >S fa&ls to ac#no"le%)e a3use of po"er 3' aut(or&tar&an lea%ers AoreroF 12 2olombia and Qene)uela 2orrespondent, 7ashin:ton Post (Juan, Katin America8s ne% authoritarians, 7ashin:ton Post, E$22, http#$$%%%&%ashin:tonpost&com$%orld$theLamericas$2 !2$ E$22$:J,A/dt6"7Lstory&html*$$+P 2A-A2A+, Qene)uela /ore than t%o decades after Katin America8s last ri:ht(%in: dictatorships dissolved, a ne% 4ind of authoritarian leader is risin: in several countries# democratically elected presidents %ho are rulin: in increasin:ly undemocratic %ays& 3nli4e the iron(fisted 'untas of a :eneration a:o, these leaders do not assassinate opposition fi:ures or declare martial la%& 1ut in a handful of countries, charismatic populists are posin: the most serious challen:e to democratic institutions in Katin America since the !?B s, %hen rebel %ars and dictators %ere the norm& Cn Qene)uela,

Nuclear War MICHIGAN 7WS 2013 134/221 Gcuador, 0icara:ua and other countries, leaders have amassed vast po%ers that they use to control courts %hile mar:inali)in: their opponents and the media, human ri:hts :roups and analysts say& 7hat %e8re seein: in Katin America are very popular presidents usin: their ma'ority status to over%helm the opposition, to erode the chec4s and balances, said Javier 2orrales, a professor at Amherst 2olle:e and co( author of 6ra:on in the 9ropics, a 2 !! boo4 about Qene)uelan President ;u:o 2have)& 9hese presidents in Katin America have come in and then very cleverly manipulated the system to their advanta:e& Pet %hat ri:hts :roups and some political leaders call a :ro%in: threat to hard(%on democratic :ains has dra%n a tepid response from the most vibrant and influential democracies in the Americas, amon: them 1ra)il and the 3nited +tates, some observers say& A country that 'ust doesn8t act is the 3nited +tates, said +antia:o 2anton, an Ar:entine le:al e5pert %ho is director of the human ri:hts pro:ram at the -obert F& >ennedy 2enter for Justice and ;uman -i:hts& And 1ra)il is sadly more in line %ith the Katin American tradition of not :ettin: involved& 9hey permit thin:s to happen that shouldn8t be permitted&

Democrac' promot&on (as fa&le% &n /at&n Amer&ca %emocrat&c pr&nc&ples are a3use% 3' aut(or&tar&an lea%ers Glo3al !ostF 12 (6emocracy in Katin America under attac4 by leaders %ho clin: to po%er, Qo55i, ! $2, http#$$%%%&vo55i&com$democracy(latin(america(attac4(po%er$*$$+P 9his time, the stron:men are populist elected leaders, %hoJunder a veneer of constitutionalityJconcentrate po%er in their o%n hands, mar:inali)e opponents and use public resources to stac4 electoral races in their favor& +upporters of Qene)uela8s President ;u:o 2have) :ather durin: a campai:n caravan in +abaneta, Qene)uela, /onday, Oct& !, 2 !2& Qene)uela8s presidential election is scheduled for Oct& E& 9hree decades after the fall of the military dictatorships that once terrori)ed Katin America, democracy in Katin America is once a:ain under attac4&(AP Photo$-odri:o Abd* 9he main proponents today, ri:hts :roups and academics say, are Gcuador8s -afael 2orrea, Qene)uela8s ;u:o 2have), 1olivia8s Gvo /orales and 0icara:ua8s 6aniel Orte:a& 9hey have a stron: personality and a bullyin: style, Jose /i:uel Qivanco, ;uman -i:hts 7atch8s Katin America director, told =lobalPost& 9hey :o after critics, opponents and others %ho :et in the %ay of their political a:enda, %hether it is the 'udiciary, the media or civil society& And the practice is to use the %hole po%er of the state, he added& 9here8s no torture or 4illin: but the name of the :ame is intimidation and, in some cases, closin: do%n criticism and opposition& Peter +mith, a Katin America politics e5pert at the 3niversity of 2alifornia, +an 6ie:o, added# 9he process of democrati)ation has sta:nated, reached a pea4 or may %ell be bac4slidin: as a %hole in the re:ion& 6aniel /ontalvo, a politics professor at ,uito8s +an Francisco 3niversity, noted# 9hey \the authoritarian elected leaders] have learned to use democratic instruments in a %ay that is not democratic& ;e cited a referendum used by 2orrea to overhaul Gcuador8s 'udiciary, appointin: sympathetic ne% 'ud:es to favor him in his constitutional battles& \9he referendum] is a very democratic tool but its use has been to le:itimi)e a situation %here there is no separation of po%ers, /ontalvo said&

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He)emon'
>S (e)emon' &s res&l&ent an% not %ecl&n&n) cont&nue% econom&c an% m&l&tar' %om&nance !onn&a(F 13 Associate, 6avid -oc4efeller 2enter for Katin American +tudies and 6epartment of African and African(American +tudies, ;arvard 3niversity (9homas, Prediction for 2 !"# 9he decline of 2hina and the resilience of the 3&+&, !$?, http#$$rabble&ca$columnists$2 !"$ !$prediction(2 !"(decline(china(and( resilience(us*$$+P /any pro:ressives (( such as 7alden 1ello, +amir Amin, and the leftist states in Katin America (( have hoped that the emer:ence of ne% %orld po%ers since 2 " such as the 1-C2s (1ra)il, -ussia, 2hina and Cndia* alon: %ith the apparent %ea4enin: of the 3&+& durin: the 1ush years %ould lead to a multi(polar %orld& /ulti( polarity, or a polycentric :lobal :overnance, %ould impose chec4s and balances on the 3&+& as %ell as on the traditional imperial forces& Articles %ritten over the past year by -obert >a:an and -uchir +harma persuasively su::est that the hopes of the polycentrists are premature# the 1-C2 countries (( especially 2hina (( are in reality not that stron: and the 3&+& in truth is not that %ea4& 9he decline of 2hina Cn <1ro4en 1-C2s,< -uchir +harma notes that perceptions of the 1-C2 countries are :reatly e5a::erated, for e5ample, in a recent poll D per cent of Americans believed that 2hina %as the %orldAs leadin: economy (( this despite the fact that the 3&+& economy is t%ice the si)e of 2hinaAs and the formerAs per capita income is seven times as much as that of the latter& As %ell, since 2 B 2hinese annual :ro%th has decreased from double di:its do%n to E per cent, 1ra)ilAs has dropped from @&D per cent to 2 per centR -ussiaAs from E per cent to "&D per centR and CndiaAs, from ? per cent to F per cent& One could ar:ue that the drop in :ro%th rates is anomalous, purely a function of the financial crisis, and set to rebound bac4 to the impressive percenta:es that %e %itnessed bet%een 2 " and 2 E& +harma ho%ever points out that the 1-C2As decline may be less aberrant than many have hoped& ;e notes that since !?D , on avera:e, only a third of the emer:in: mar4ets (( meanin: the !@D countries that the Cnternational /onetary Fund denotes as <developin:< (( have been able to :ro% for one decade at an annual rate of D per cent or more& Kess than a Muarter of those countries have 4ept up that pace for t%o decades, and one(tenth, for three decades& Only si5 countries (( /alaysia, +in:apore, +outh >orea, 9ai%an, 9hailand, and ;on: >on: (( have preserved an annual :ro%th rate of D per cent for four decades& 9hus the current decline of the 1-C2 countries (( %hose economic stren:ths are not complementary (( be:ins to seem all too consistent %ith the history of developin: countries since !?D # only a small percenta:e have been able to maintain D per cent :ro%th rates for more than a decade& +harma predicts that the 3nited +tates, Gurope, and Japan are li4ely to :ro% slo%ly over the ne5t decade but the real story of the :lobal economy %ill be the " to @ per cent slo%do%n in 2hina& ;e ar:ues that 2hinaAs population is too lar:e and a:in: too Muic4ly (( because of its <one(child policy< (( for its economy to maintain the :ro%th rate of the past decade& +harma believes that the American fears of 2hina surpassin: the 3&+& economy %ill be reco:ni)ed as the latest of the countryAs re:ular attac4s of paranoia, similar to the fear that attended JapanAs rise in the !?B s& 9he resilience of the 3nited +tates Cn <0ot Fade A%ay# 9he myth of American decline,< -obert >a:an points out that over the past decade there has been a very po%erful sense that the 3&+& is a country %hose rei:n is comin: to an end& -una%ay economic deficits and military %ea4ness in CraM and Af:hanistan have contributed to the belief that %e are %itnessin: one of historyAs typical cycles# the imperial overstretch and economic ban4ruptcy of a dyin: %orld po%er& 9his mood is premature and false# >a:an notes that if one evaluates the 3&+& on the basis of its economy relative to that of others and its military po%er in relation to its adversaries it becomes evident that the 3&+& is not in decline but instead may be transitionin: bac4 to its usual he:emony& Cn terms of military capacity, the 3&+& has no rival partially because it spends (( at [F billion per year (( more than all other ma'or po%ers combined& >a:an points out that its substantial military investment :ives the 3&+& land and air forces the most advanced %eaponry in the %orld %hile its navy remains dominant on every part of the planet& +ome mi:ht note that this level of e5penditure is untenableR ho%ever, they do so by i:norin: historical precedent& 9his substantial sum of money consumes a little less than @ per cent of annual =6PR this in comparison to the ! per cent of =6P that the 3&+& spent on defence in the mid(!?D s and the E per cent it spent in the late !?B s& 3&+& military spendin: is not unsustainable and enables it to retain its military he:emony&

Nuclear War MICHIGAN 7WS 2013 161/221 +ome have interpreted the 2 B financial crisis as the si:nal moment mar4in: the end of 3&+& economic pre( eminence& 9hese critics for:et that the 3nited +tates endured profound and protracted economic crises in the !B? s, the !?" s, and the !?E s& Cn each instance, the country made si:nificant ad'ustments and returned in the follo%in: decade even stron:er than the previous one# the !?! s, the !?@ s, and the !?B s %ere all decades of prominent 3&+& :lobal influence& Gconomically the 3&+&As stren:th has not declined& Cts share of :lobal =6P remains consistent& Cn !?F?, the country produced one(Muarter of %orld =6P and today it produces rou:hly the same& 9he sur:e of the 1-C2s has been surprisin:, but it has not come at the e5pense of the 3&+& 9heir rise has ta4en over some the share of Gurope and JapanAs portion of the %orld economy but not that of the 3nited +tates& 2onclusion Cn sum, pro:ressives %ho are loo4in: for a better %orld should not place their bets on the emer:ence of a polycentric %orld# 2hina is not :oin: to overta4e the 3&+& and %ill more li4ely enter into decline over the ne5t decade& /ean%hile, reports concernin: the %ea4nesses of the 3&+& economy or military are not empirically convincin:# the 2 th centuryAs most po%erful country %ill remain the %orld leader %ell into the ne% century& =lobal he:emony of course does not mean that ineMuality in the 3& +& %ill decrease nor does it imply that the Muality of life of most Americans %ill improve& 7hile the production and protection of %ealth is as impressive as ever, its division and redistribution are typically less than inspirin:&

>S (e)emon' res&l&ent successful econom&c reco+er'F stron) manufactur&n)F an% ener)' &n%epen%ence Dre9nerF 12 Professor of Cnternational Politics, Fletcher +chool of Ka% and 6iplomacy, 9ufts 3niversity (6aniel 7&, Predictions about the death of American he:emony may have been :reatly e5a::erated, Forei:n Policy, !$22, http#$$dre)ner&forei:npolicy&com$posts$2 !2$ !$22$predictionsLaboutLtheLdeathLofLamericanLhe:emony LmayLhaveLbeenL:reatlyLe5a::erated*$$+P 9he %idespread misperception that 2hina is catchin: up to the 3nited +tates stems from a number of analytical fla%s, the most common of %hich is the tendency to dra% conclusions about the 3&+&(2hina po%er balance from data that compare 2hina only to its former self& For e5ample, many studies note that the :ro%th rates of 2hina8s per capita income, value added in hi:htechnolo:y industries, and military spendin: e5ceed those of the 3nited +tates and then conclude that 2hina is catchin: up& 9his focus on :ro%th rates, ho%ever, obscures 2hina8s decline relative to the 3nited +tates in all of these cate:ories& 2hina8s :ro%th rates are hi:h because its startin: point %as lo%& 2hina is risin:, but it is not catchin: up& 7hat about the futureH One could point to the last fe% months of modestly encoura:in: economic data, but thatAs ephemeral& -ather, there are three macrotrends that are %orth observin: no% before (C suspect* they come up in the +tate of the 3nion# !* 9he 3nited +tates is successfully delevera:in:& As the /c>insey =lobal Cnstitute notes, the 3nited +tates is actually doin: a relatively :ood 'ob of slimmin: do%n total debt (( i&e&, consumer, investor and public debt combined& +ure, public debt has e5ploded, but as /=C points out, that really is the proper %ay of doin: thin:s after a financial bubble# 9he delevera:in: processes in +%eden and Finland in the !?? s offer relevant lessons today& 1oth endured credit bubbles and collapses, follo%ed by recession, debt reduction, and eventually a return to robust economic :ro%th& 9heir e5periences and other historical e5amples sho% t%o distinct phases of delevera:in:& Cn the first phase, lastin: several years, households, corporations, and financial institutions reduce debt si:nificantly& 7hile this happens, economic :ro%th is ne:ative or minimal and :overnment debt rises& Cn the second phase of delevera:in:, =6P :ro%th rebounds and then :overnment debt is :radually reduced over many years&&&& As of January 2 !2, the 3nited +tates is most closely follo%in: the 0ordic path to%ards delevera:in:& 6ebt in the financial sector has fallen bac4 to levels last seen in 2 , before the credit bubble, and the ratio of corporate debt relative to =6P has also fallen& 3+ households have made more pro:ress in debt reduction than other countries, and may have rou:hly t%o more years before returnin: to sustainable levels of debt& Cndeed, the delevera:in: is impressive enou:h for even Paul >ru:man to start soundin: optimistic# the economy is depressed, in lar:e part, because of the housin: bust, %hich immediately su::ests the possibility of a virtuous circle# an improvin: economy leads to a sur:e in home purchases, %hich leads to more

Nuclear War MICHIGAN 7WS 2013 162/221 construction, %hich stren:thens the economy further, and so on& And if you sMuint hard at recent data, it loo4s as if somethin: li4e that may be startin:# home sales are up, unemployment claims are do%n, and builders8 confidence is risin:& Furthermore, the chances for a virtuous circle have been risin:, because %e8ve made si:nificant pro:ress on the debt front& 2* /anufacturin: is on the mend& Another positive trend, contra the ;arvard 1usiness +chool and the =OP presidential candidates, is in manufacturin:& +ome analysts have already predicted a revival in that sector, and no% the data appears to be bac4in: up that prediction& 9he Financial 9imesA Gd 2roo4s notes# Plenty of economists and business leaders believe that 3+ manufacturin: is enterin: an upturn that is not 'ust a bounce(bac4 after the recession, but a si:n of a lon:er(term structural improvement& /anufacturin: employment has :ro%n faster in the 3+ since the recession than in any other leadin: developed economy, accordin: to official fi:ures& Productivity :ro%th, subdued %a:es, the steady decline in the dollar since 2 2 and rapid pay inflation in emer:in: economies have combined to ma4e the 3+ a more attractive location& Over the past decade, the 3+ has had some hu:e :ains in productivity, and %e have seen unit labour costs actually fallin:, says 2had /outray, chief economist at the 0ational Association of /anufacturers& A lot of our members tell us that it sometimes is cheaper to produce in the 3+, especially because labour costs are lo%er& 0o%, %hether this boom in manufacturin: %ill lead to a correspondin: boom in manufacturin: employment is much more debatable& +till, as 9he AtlanticAs Adam 6avidson concludes# <the still(unfoldin: story of manufacturin:8s transformation is, in many respects, that of our economic a:e& Ct8s a story %ith much :ood ne%s for the nation as a %hole& 1ut it8s also one that is decidedly less inclusive than the story of the 2 th century&< "* A predicted decline in ener:y insecurity& 1ritish Petroleum has issued their Gner:y Outloo4 for 2 " & 9he =uardianAs -ichard 7achman provides a useful summary# =ro%th in shale oil and :as supplies %ill ma4e the 3+ virtually self(sufficient in ener:y by 2 " , accordin: to a 1P report published on 7ednesday& Cn a development %ith enormous :eopolitical implications, the countryAs dependence on oil imports from potentially volatile countries in the /iddle Gast and else%here %ould disappear, 1P said, althou:h 1ritain and %estern Gurope %ould still need =ulf supplies& 1PAs latest ener:y outloo4 forecasts a :ro%th in unconventional ener:y sources, <includin: 3+ shale oil and :as, 2anadian oil sands and 1ra)ilian deep%ater, plus a :radual decline in demand, that %ould see \0orth America] become almost totally ener:y self(sufficient< in t%o decades& 1PAs chief e5ecutive, 1ob 6udley, said# <Our report challen:es some lon:(held beliefs& +i:nificant chan:es in 3+ supply(and(demand prospects, for e5ample, hi:hli:ht the li4elihood that import dependence in %hat is todayAs lar:est ener:y importer %ill decline substantially&< 9he report said the volume of oil imports in the 3+ %ould fall belo% !?? s levels, lar:ely due to risin: domestic shale oil production and ethanol replacin: crude& 9he 3+ %ould also become a net e5porter of natural :as&

>S (e)emon' res&l&ent 3ecause of &nternat&onal support an% no &mpact &f %ecl&ne %oes occur MoranF 12 Former G5ecutive Gditor, 2ouncil on Forei:n -elations (/ichael, 9he myth of America8s decline, -euters, @$!2, http#$$blo:s&reuters&com$:reat(debate$2 !2$ @$!2$the(myth(of(americas( decline$*$$+P For all the doom and :loom about American decline, the 3nited +tates loo4s nothin: li4e the t%ili:ht empires to %hich it8s often compared& For one thin:, in this a:e of :lobali)ation, a far :reater s%ath of the planet includin: some surprisin: nations li4e 2hina and +audi Arabia %ish America %ell, albeit for their o%n, selfish reasons& 7hy %ould either country, in spite of %hat it may thin4 of American culture or forei:n policy, %ant to upset a status Muo upheld, at :reat e5pense, by American po%er that enriches them more each and every yearH From the 3+ perspective, this should be an advanta:e& Ct creates sta4eholders all over the planet that :enuinely hope 7ashin:ton can solve its current fiscal problems& 7ith the e5ception of the 1ritish Gmpire, %hich had a relatively beni:n replacement lined up %hen it ran out of steam, history offers no other e5ample of a %anin: empire %hose most obvious potential rivals 2hina, Cndia, the G3, to name but a fe% all have :ood reasons to %ant to help arran:e a lon:, slo% approach to a soft landin:&

Nuclear War MICHIGAN 7WS 2013 163/221 C have no ob'ection to the principle of an American Gmpire, %rites 0iall Fer:uson, the O5ford historian& Cndeed, a part of my ar:ument is that many parts of the %orld %ould benefit from a period of American rule& Fer:uson and others li4e him reco:ni)e the importance of the role the 3nited +tates has played, a role that not only under%rites the free e5chan:e of commodities, labor and capital but also creates and upholds the conditions %ithout %hich mar4ets cannot function peace and order, the rule of la%, non(corrupt administration, stable fiscal and monetary policies as %ell as public :oods& Cronically, many %ould(be topplers of American he:emony no doubt feel the same %ay& Another 4ey difference from the decline of Gurope8s imperial po%ers is that %hile America8s relative decline is under%ay, the 3nited +tates hardly loo4s li4ely to sin4 Muic4ly to second(class status& Cn other %ords, the current tra'ectory %ould see the 3nited +tates settle into a 4ind of parity %ith emer:in: po%ers& Cn instances %here the chan:in: of the :uard occurred %ith ama)in: speed +pain after Philip CC, the 6utch after the 0apoleonic %ars, France after 7orld 7ar C, and 1ritain after 7orld 7ar CC the declinin: po%ers %ere e5hausted, attemptin: to clin: to far(flun: colonies because their imperial economic models depended on e5tractin: every last ounce of labor and resources to prop up the home country& 9he 3nited +tates has somethin: none of them ever en'oyed the %orld8s lar:est domestic consumer mar4et, as %ell as a commandin: lead in many of the disruptive technolo:ies that still drive product innovation& +o absolute decline appears only a distant prospect unless Americans badly fail at the polls, invitin: another decade 'ust li4e the one 'ust finished& -elative decline for the 3nited +tates is hardly the %orst possible outcome, if 7ashin:ton and its allies can fashion a post(he:emonic system as resilient as the 3+(dominated one launched by -oosevelt and 9ruman in the mid(!?@ s& And Americans may find that, after decades of superpo%er headaches, they 4ind of en'oy bein: mortal a:ain& >S (e)emon' &s res&l&ent an% sl&)(t %ecl&ne &s &rrele+ant t(e&r aut(ors are alarm&sts BaplanF ? +enior Fello%, 2enter for a 0e% American +ecurity (-obert, 3&+& ;e:emony /ay 1e in 6ecline, but Only to a 6e:ree, 7ashin:ton Post, !2$!E, http#$$%%%&%ashin:tonpost&com$%p( dyn$content$article$2 B$!2$!F$A-2 B!2!F 2@B &html*$$+P 9hat is a4in to %here %e are no%, post(CraM# calmer, more pra:matic and %ith a military (( especially a 0avy (( that, %hile in relative decline, is still far superior to any other on Garth& 0ear the end of the 2old 7ar, the 3&+& 0avy had almost F shipsR it is do%n to 2B & 1ut in a::re:ate tonna:e that is still more than the ne5t !E navies combined& Our military secures the :lobal commons to the benefit of all nations& 7ithout the 3&+& 0avy, the seas %ould be unsafe for merchant shippin:, %hich, in an era of :lobali)ation, accounts for ? percent of %orld trade& 7e may not be able to control events on land in the /iddle Gast, but our 0avy and Air Force control all entry and e5it points to the re:ion& 9he multinational anti(piracy patrols that have ta4en shape in the +trait of /alacca and the =ulf of Aden have done so under the ae:is of the 3&+& 0avy& +ure the economic crisis %ill affect shipbuildin:, meanin: the decline in the number of our ships %ill continue, and there %ill come a point %here Muantity affects Muality& 1ut this %ill be an e5ceedin:ly :radual transition, %hich %e %ill assua:e by levera:in: naval allies such as Cndia and Japan& 9hen there are the do)ens of trainin: deployments around the %orld that the 3&+& military, particularly Army +pecial Forces, conducts in any :iven %ee4& 7e are all over Africa, Asia and Katin America %ith these small missions that increase AmericaAs diplomatic thro%(%ei:ht %ithout runnin: the ris4 of :ettin: us bo::ed do%n& Aside from CraM and Af:hanistan, our military posture around the %orld is :enerally li:ht, lethal and hi:hly mobile& 7e have been Muietly reducin: land forces in +outh >orea %hile compensatin: %ith a more effective air and naval presence& Cn 2olombia, platoon(si)e numbers of =reen 1erets have been instrumental in fi:htin: narco(terroristsR in Al:eria, such trainin: teams have helped improve our relationship %ith that formerly radical Arab country& +uch stripped(do%n American military deployments :arner no headlines, but they are a formula that %or4s& 9he /arines, after becomin: virtually desert forces since 2 !, %ill return to their e5peditionary roots aboard amphibious ships in the =reater Cndian Ocean and 7estern Pacific& American military po%er is not :oin: a%ay& 1ut instead of bein: in(your(face, it %ill lur4 'ust over the hori)on& And that %ill ma4e all the difference& Cn sum, %e may no lon:er be at 2harles >rauthammerAs <3nipolar /oment,< but neither have %e become +%eden& 6eclinism of the sort bein: preached %ill :o immediately out of fashion at the %orldAs ne5t humanitarian catastrophe, %hen the very people enra:ed at the 3&+& military because of CraM %ill demand that

Nuclear War MICHIGAN 7WS 2013 166/221 it lead a coalition to save lives& 7e mi:ht have intervened in 6arfur had %e not been bo::ed do%n in CraMR after 2yclone 0ar:is, our ships %ould have provided lar:e(scale relief, had 1urmaAs military :overnment allo%ed them to proceed& As %orld population rises, and %ith vast urban areas %ith totterin: infrastructures in the most environmentally and seismically fra:ile )ones, the opportunities for 3&+& military(led disaster relief %ill be le:ion& 9he American military remains a force for :ood, a fact that %ill become self(evident in the crises to come& Of course %e are enterin: a more multipolar %orld& 9he only economic :ro%th over the ne5t year or t%o %ill come from developin: nations, notably Cndia and 2hina& 1ut there are other realities, too& 7e should not underestimate the diplomatic and moral levera:e created by the combination of the %orldAs most e5peditionary military and a ne% president %ho %ill boast hi:h approval ratin:s at home and around the %orld& 0o po%er but the 3nited +tates has the %here%ithal to orchestrate an Csraeli(Palestinian peace deal, and our intervention in CraM has not chan:ed that fact& Gveryone hates the %ord, but the 3nited +tates is still a he:emon of sorts, able to pivotally influence the %orld from a position of moral stren:th& Ne" &nternat&onal or%er means (e)emon' &s unsusta&na3le an% fa&ls to sol+e pro3lems trans&t&on to mult&polar&t' &s #e' B&tf&el%F 5/24 0ational +ecurity and Forei:n Affairs 2orrespondent, 0ational Journal (James, Po%er 6o%n, 0ational Journal, D$2?$!", http#$$%%%&national'ournal&com$ma:a)ine$an(indispensible(nation(no( more(2 !!!!!E*$$+P 7hy did t%o presidents %ith such different forei:n(policy instincts run up a:ainstJand, in many cases, :et foiled byJthe same international challen:esH Cn =eor:e 7& 1ush, 1arac4 Obama, and the Future of 3&+& =lobal Keadership, a recent article in Cnternational Affairs, James Kindsay %rote that presidents today, no matter their styles, must mana:e friends and foes %ho feel increasin:ly empo%ered to i:nore or contest American dominance& Americans have this in:rained notion that 3&+& leadership and predominance is the natural state of %orld affairs, %ith 6emocrats thus concludin: that :entle en:a:ement %ill automatically cause countries to rally to our banner, and -epublicans believin: that firmness and consistency %ill have the same effect, Kindsay said in an intervie%& 9hey are both fundamentally misreadin: the :eostrate:ic environment& 9he post(2old 7ar period %as an era of victory that left the 3nited +tates standin: atop the :lobal orderJa superpo%er %ith unmatched military, economic, social, and diplomatic mi:ht& 0o %onder e5pectations are so hi:h& 1ut thin:s have chan:ed& 1ra)il, Cndia, Cndonesia, 9ur4ey, and especially 2hina are cla%in: their %ay to the top of the international system, insistin: on all the privile:es that come %ith their ne%ly elevated status, as Kindsay puts it& -evolution is s%eepin: the /iddle Gast, the %orld8s ener:y bas4et& -evisionist po%ers (-ussia* and perennial outliers (Cran, 0orth >orea* sense opportunity and ne% room to maneuver& Cf a unipolar moment ever really e5isted, it8s not 'ust passed, it8s :one permanently, says -ichard ;aass, the former senior official in the first 1ush 7hite ;ouse %ho no% runs the 2ouncil on Forei:n -elations& Partly, that follo%s from t%o costly %ars, a recession, and political dysfunction that bloc4s a lon:(term debt solution or a bipartisan forei:n( policy consensus& /ore than that, thou:h, it flo%s from :lobali)ation& Po%er is simply too diffuse no%, and the challen:es %e confront are comple5, transnational, and they defy the efforts of any one nation, ;aass says& Americans can8t advance their interests summarily in this ne% universe, even if that8s %hat they8re used toR other nations %on8t automatically fall in line& At the ar:uable hei:ht of American po%er, =eor:e ;&7& 1ush crafted a consensus at the 3nited 0ations and a military alliance of 7estern and Arab nations to liberate >u%ait in !??!R -ussians acMuiesced to 0A9O e5pansion& Kittle more than a decade later, =eor:e 7& 1ush had no hope for 3&0& consensus, and he %as luc4y to have the support of even those fe% countries that 'oined his CraM %ar coalitionR /osco% invaded =eor:ia in 2 B rather than stomach the 7esterni)ation of =eor:ia and 34raine& 7e8re the only country that can mobili)e collective international action to confront the bi: :lobal problems li4e terrorism, proliferation, climate chan:e, and access to ener:y, says 1rent +co%croft, %ho %as national(security adviser for =eor:e ;&7& 1ush& 1ut it %ill reMuire a chan:e of character in 3&+& leadership&N 7e8ll have to lead more by persuasion than coercion or dominance& 9hat8s an art, and C hope our strate:ic culture is still capable of it& He)emon' collapse &ne+&ta3le no "a' for t(e >S to susta&n lea%ers(&p

Nuclear War MICHIGAN 7WS 2013 165/221 B&racofeF 6/10 Professor of Political +cience, 7ashin:ton and Kee 3niversity and Professor of ;istory, Qir:inia /ilitary Cnstitute (2lifford, 3+ dominance in multipolar %orld remains unrealistic delusion, =lobal 9imes, @$! $!", http#$$%%%&:lobaltimes&cn$content$EE@ B@&shtmlO&3f0AvP29h73*$$+P 7ill the 3+ remain <0o&!< as a multipolar %orld emer:es over the ne5t several decadesH Proponents of 3+ he:emony say yes, but the future may not be so clear(cut for Americans& 2hina, for e5ample, %ill move ahead of the 3+ economically in the medium term& 9oday, the 3+ faces profound economic and social challen:es& 9he unnecessary CraM and Af:han %ars stole some [D trillion from the 3+ future to 2 2 and caused present massive bud:et deficits& 3+ infrastructure is fallin: to pieces and needs si:nificant update& Gducation belo% the university level is in serious crisis si:nalin: :rave lon:(term issues& Adverse income distribution is sharpenin:& 9he middle class is bein: crushed, social mobility is droppin: rapidly, and poverty is increasin: in rural, urban, and even suburban areas& ;ealthcare is in crisis and the national social security system and medical care system are under attac4 by both political parties& All are not easily reversed or papered over& +ome point to a bri:ht ener:y future for the 3+ resultin: from ne% efficient hydrocarbon e5traction technolo:ies& 2heaper and more plentiful ener:y is supposed to lead to a better economic and social future, but :iven the si:nificant challen:es the 3+ faces over the comin: decades, is this realisticH 9he ans%er is no& 7ashin:ton politicians have yet to develop an appropriate vision to :uide the 3+ throu:h the chan:in: international system& 9hey continue to pursue rec4less %ar policies and 2old 7ar :eopolitical concepts reMuirin: bloated defense bud:ets unrelated to a realistic assessment of national security reMuirements& Cn addition to military intimidation, 3+ policy is %edded to coercive diplomacy& 9he main international fact of life is that the D (year period of 7estern e5pansion, colonialism, and imperial e5ploitation has come to an end& 9he post 7orld 7ar CC international system is shiftin: to%ard a multipolar environment in %hich the 1-C2+ countries, in particular, play an increasin:ly important role& =lobally, the %orld is under:oin: a lon:(term economic shift in %hich the Gast and the +outh no% provide more than D percent of :lobal economic :ro%th and @ percent of :lobal investment& 2hinaAs contribution is one and a half times that of the 3+& Accordin: to 3+ :overnment research reports, 2hina %ill li4ely overta4e the 3+ economically over the ne5t decade or so& 9he 7orld 1an4 says that 2hina %ill contribute 2D percent of :lobal :ro%th by 2 2D, more than any other country& +ome ar:ue that the 3+ is the lynchpin of the international financial system o%in: to the 3+ dollar as the 4ey reserve currency in the %orld& 1ut such ar:uments do not ta4e into account :lobal demands for a transformation of the international financial system& Proposals include sensible options for ne% reserve currencies in the interest of stability and eMuity& 9he 1-C2+ countries and many other countries call for updatin: the inadeMuate, un'ust, and disinte:ratin: international financial architecture left over from 7orld 7ar CC& Profound reform of the Cnternational /onetary Fund and the 7orld 1an4 is clearly needed& 1ut even %ith such reform, the present international financial situation needs ne% mechanisms and 1-C2+ countries are addressin: this& 3nfortunately, most 3+ politicians and strate:ists clin: to an unrealistic vision of 3+ he:emony& 9hey en:a:e in strate:ic narcissism and ar:ue that the 3+ must maintain he:emony, %hich they call <:lobal leadership,< into the comin: decades& 1ut massive 3+ military spendin: to maintain he:emony is unsustainable, thus 7ashin:ton emphasi)es 0A9O :ro%th and :lobal e5pansion reachin: into the Asia(Pacific re:ion& 9hose see4in: to maintain he:emony throu:h military means propound the <2hina threat< theory as 'ustification for needless and counterproductive defense e5penditures& Gmphasis on the maintenance of the 2old 7ar national security state, ho%ever, impairs the lon:(term 3+ economy, not to mention civil liberties and social stability& 9he delusions of 3+ politicians and strate:ists %ill lead to a dar4 future& Ct is clear that the 3+ %ill not lon: remain <0o&!< and that 7ashin:ton must en:a:e in serious reflection on its outmoded and failin: policies& >S (e)emon' &s unsusta&na3le &nter+ent&on&st fa&lures an% m&l&tar' costs ma#e restra&nt necessar' !osenF 13 Ford Cnternational Professor of Political +cience, /C9 and 6irector, /C9 +ecurity +tudies Pro:ram (1arry -&, 9he 2ase for a Kess Activist Forei:n Policy, Forei:n Affairs, January$February, http#$$deshcallin:&blo:spot&com$2 !"$ 2$the(future(of(us(:rand(strate:y(!&html*$$+P

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9o this end, the 3&+& :overnment has e5panded its spra%lin: 2old 7ar(era net%or4 of security commitments and military bases& Ct has reinforced its e5istin: alliances, addin: ne% members to 0A9O and enhancin: its security a:reement %ith Japan& Cn the Persian =ulf, it has sou:ht to protect the flo% of oil %ith a full panoply of air, sea, and land forces, a :oal that consumes at least !D percent of the 3&+& defense bud:et& 7ashin:ton has put 2hina on a %atch list, rin:in: it in %ith a net%or4 of alliances, less formal relationships, and military bases& 9he 3nited +tatesA activism has entailed a lon: list of ambitious forei:n policy pro'ects& 7ashin:ton has tried to rescue failin: states, intervenin: militarily in +omalia, ;aiti, 1osnia, >osovo, and Kibya, variously attemptin: to defend human ri:hts, suppress undesirable nationalist movements, and install democratic re:imes& Ct has also tried to contain so(called ro:ue states that oppose the 3nited +tates, such as Cran, CraM under +addam ;ussein, 0orth >orea, and, to a lesser de:ree, +yria& After ?$!!, the stru::le a:ainst al ,aeda and its allies dominated the a:enda, but the =eor:e 7& 1ush administration defined this enterprise broadly and led the country into the painful %ars in Af:hanistan and CraM& Althou:h the 3nited +tates has lon: sou:ht to discoura:e the spread of nuclear %eapons, the prospect of nuclear(armed terrorists has added ur:ency to this ob'ective, leadin: to constant tension %ith Cran and 0orth >orea& Cn pursuit of this ambitious a:enda, the 3nited +tates has consistently spent hundreds of billions of dollars per year on its military (( far more than the sum of the defense bud:ets of its friends and far more than the sum of those of its potential adversaries& Ct has 4ept that military busy# 3&+& troops have spent rou:hly t%ice as many months in combat after the 2old 7ar as they did durin: it& 9oday, rou:hly !B , 3&+& soldiers remain stationed on forei:n soil, not countin: the tens of thousands more %ho have rotated throu:h the %ar )ones in Af:hanistan and CraM& 9housands of American and allied soldiers have lost their lives, not to mention the countless civilians cau:ht in the crossfire& 9his undisciplined, e5pensive, and bloody strate:y has done untold harm to 3&+& national security& Ct ma4es enemies almost as fast as it slays them, discoura:es allies from payin: for their o%n defense, and convinces po%erful states to band to:ether and oppose 7ashin:tonAs plans, further raisin: the costs of carryin: out its forei:n policy& 6urin: the !?? s, these conseMuences %ere mana:eable because the 3nited +tates en'oyed such a favorable po%er position and chose its %ars carefully& Over the last decade, ho%ever, the countryAs relative po%er has deteriorated, and policyma4ers have made dreadful choices concernin: %hich %ars to fi:ht and ho% to fi:ht them& 7hatAs more, the Penta:on has come to depend on continuous infusions of cash simply to retain its current force structure (( levels of spendin: that the =reat -ecession and the 3nited +tatesA balloonin: debt have rendered unsustainable& Ct is time to abandon the 3nited +tatesA he:emonic strate:y and replace it %ith one of restraint& 9his approach %ould mean :ivin: up on :lobal reform and stic4in: to protectin: narro% national security interests& Ct %ould mean transformin: the military into a smaller force that :oes to %ar only %hen it truly must& Ct %ould mean removin: lar:e numbers of 3&+& troops from for%ard bases, creatin: incentives for allies to provide for their o%n security& And because such a shift %ould allo% the 3nited +tates to spend its resources on only the most pressin: international threats, it %ould help preserve the countryAs prosperity and security over the lon: run&

>S (e)emon' unsusta&na3le (&)( costs pre+ent success re)ar%less of pol&t&cal support ;&a3ar& an% S(orF 12 Journalist, 9ehran 9imes A06 Professor, ;istory 6epartment, 7ayne +tate 3niversity (>ourosh and Francis, Prof& Francis +hor# 9he 3&+& Gconomy and /ilitary Fadin: =radually, Cran -evie%, !2$!!, http#$$%%%&silviacattori&net$article@ "E&html*$$+P >ourosh Ziabari# As you 4no%, the unipolar, he:emonic system of :lobal :overnance led by the 3nited +tate constitutes the basis and structure of current international order& Cn this re:ard, some people believe that the si:ns of the decline of the 3nited +tates and a conseMuent transformation in the international order have be:un to emer:e& A chan:e based on the foundin: of a po%er balance a:ainst the 3nited +tates has be:un to emer:e in the :lobal eMuations of political po%er& 7hat8s your analysis of this chan:e and the challen:es it poses to 3&+& he:emonyH Francis +hor# 9he emer:ence of a multipolar %orld constitutes a chec4mate and alternative to the fadin: unipolarity of the 3nited +tates& 1eyond the po%er bloc4 of the 1-C2 (1ra)il, -ussia, Cndia, and 2hina*, re:ional po%ers around the :lobe have asserted and %ill continue to assert their independence from the political, military, and cultural he:emonic aspirations of the 3nited +tates& For e5ample, 9ur4ey and 1ra)il attempted to circumvent 3&+& efforts to isolate Cran around the nuclear issue& /oreover, the recent defeat of the

Nuclear War MICHIGAN 7WS 2013 167/221 3&+& and Csrael in the 30 over Palestinian statehood is a prime e5ample of the continuin: outlier role of the 3&+& and the :ro%in: autonomy of international forces a%ay from 3&+& he:emony& >ourosh Ziabari# Ct seems that the 3nited +tates is voluntarily retreatin: from its position as a :lobal he:emon, as a result of a remar4able increase in the costs of the unipolar and he:emonic order and the considerable decrease in its utilities& 7hat8s your vie%point in this re:ardH Francis +hor# 2ertainly, the massive costs of retainin: over !, military bases around the :lobe and propa:atin: recent futile military campai:ns in CraM and Af:hanistan have convinced some elements of the rulin: elite in the 3nited +tates to re(assess :eopolitical strate:y& 0onetheless, the pretensions of all factions of the political elite in the 3&+& concernin: its role as the indispensable nation underscores continuin: efforts by the 3&+& in the /iddle Gast and Far Gast to pro'ect its fadin: po%er& 9hus, the emphasis under the Obama Administration has been to shift to a reliance on less e5pensive and alle:edly smart technolo:ical %arfare, such as the use of ille:al and immoral drone stri4es in Af:hanistan, Pa4istan, Pemen, etc& Also, Obama has overseen the e5pansion of special operations forces as a %ay to 4eep less massive boots on the :round in over F countries& Althou:h concerns about the costs of perpetuatin: empire are evident in the 3&+&, no political faction in 7ashin:ton, 62 is in favor of serious reduction in the Penta:on bud:et and a re'ection of empire as a %ay of life& He)emon' %oesn7t allo" t(e >S to %eter confl&cts or ot(er"&se &nfluence &nternat&onal affa&rs Aarle'F 12 Assistant Professor, Patterson +chool of 6iplomacy and Cnternational 2ommerce, 3niversity of >entuc4y (-obert, Over the ;orision# 9he Future of American ;e:emony, 7orld Politics -evie%, "$E, http#$$%%%&%orldpoliticsrevie%&com$articles$!!F?F$over(the(hori)on(the(future(of(american(he:emony*$$+P 7hat are the dan:ersH ;e:emony has never meant the ability to achieve any outcome the 3nited +tates %ants, %henever it %ants& Cndeed, he:emony may mean the lu5ury to ma4e dreadful mista4es %ithout sufferin: dreadful conseMuences& ;o%ever, as the :ap bet%een the 3nited +tates and other :reat po%ers declines, the mar:in for error narro%s& 9he most dan:erous steps for the 3nited +tates to ta4e %ould involve pro'ects that threaten fiscal capacity %hile also undercuttin: the 3&+&(sponsored system of :lobal mana:ement& 9he invasion of CraM, for e5ample, is not an underta4in: that the 3nited +tates %ould %ant to repeat in the future& Ct undermined :lobal confidence in both the international system of :overnance and the decision(ma4in: capacity of the 3nited +tates :overnment, %hile dama:in: the fiscal health of the 3nited +tates& Cronically, advocates of the %ar believed that it %ould demonstrate not only American po%er, but also reinforce confidence in American leadership& >S (e)emon' %oesn7t sol+e "ars an% %ecl&ne %oesn7t result &n )reat po"er "ars -rne'F 12 1A in Philosophy, Politics T the Public, and Cnternational +tudies, Yavier 3niversity and Assistant to the 6irector of =overnment -elations, Yavier 3niversity (-osalynd, 7e 7on8t, 7e 7on8t -oc4 Pou# 9he 6ecline of 3&+& Primacy and the -ise of the -est, Yavier Journal of Political +cience, Qolume ", 0umber !, Fall, http#$$%%%&5avier&edu$5'op$documents$YJOP2 !2QolCCC0o!Grney&pdf*$$+P Za4aria, /ason and C4enberry a:ree that %hile the 3nited +tates %ill continue to hold military supremacy over the %orld, the si:nificance of that supremacy is relatively declinin:& First, the 3&+& is be:innin: to discover the limits of its military po%er in Qietnam, +omalia, and ;aiti amon: others, and almost every case of 3&+& military intervention in the post(%ar period, 3&+& :oals %ere not ultimately achieved (/ason 2 ?*& 7hile America does still currently hold the lar:est and most technolo:ically advanced military in the %orld, it has become increasin:ly unli4ely that any military stru::le %ill arise in this po%er stru::le& 6avid C4enberry (2 B* ar:ues that in the a:e of nuclear deterrence, :reat(po%er %ar is, than4fully, no lon:er a mechanism of historical chan:e& 7ar(driven chan:e has been abolished as a historical process (C4enberry 2 B*& 9his ne% :reat po%er %ar, rather, %ill ta4e place in the realm of economicsJ%here the 3nited +tates is clearly in decline& >S (e)emon' fa&ls to s(ape t(e &nternat&onal or%er un&polar&t' results &n counter3alanc&n) -rne'F 12 1A in Philosophy, Politics T the Public, and Cnternational +tudies, Yavier 3niversity and Assistant to the 6irector of =overnment -elations, Yavier 3niversity (-osalynd, 7e 7on8t, 7e 7on8t -oc4

Nuclear War MICHIGAN 7WS 2013 16?/221 Pou# 9he 6ecline of 3&+& Primacy and the -ise of the -est, Yavier Journal of Political +cience, Qolume ", 0umber !, Fall, http#$$%%%&5avier&edu$5'op$documents$YJOP2 !2QolCCC0o!Grney&pdf*$$+P 9he first error that 1roo4s and 7ohlforth ma4e in their ar:ument is to overestimate the po%er of the 3&+& he:emony& 9hou:h the 3nited +tates is po%erful, other states li4e 2hina, 1ra)il and Cndia are risin:, both militarily and economically& As these states rise and become more po%erful, the 3&+& %ill become less able to form the %orld after its o%n ima:e& Additionally, the American he:emony thesis i:nores the importance of interconnectivity in a :lobali)ed %orld& 1ecause there is si:nificant interconnection across issue areas, any chan:e in one nation8s forei:n policy is li4ely to cause a chain reaction amon: other states& 9hus, other states are li4ely to respond to unilateral military action on the part of the 3nited +tates by adoptin: policies less favorable to American interests& /oreover, American tendency to act unilaterally can also cause serious problems for its forei:n policy later on& 3nilateral action reduces the pool of voluntary help from %hich the 3&+& can hope to dra% from in the future& Forei:n perception of the misuse of American po%er encoura:es other states to %or4 %ith one another to chec4 American po%er& 3ltimately, the 3nited +tates %ill be unable to continue its misuse and e5a::eration of po%er as other states rise& -mp&r&cs are &rrele+ant no r&s# of )reat trans&t&on "ars $r9e9&ns#&F 13 +enior -esearch Professor of Cnternational -elations, +chool of Advanced Cnternational +tudies, Johns ;op4ins 3niversity (Zbie:nie%, =iants, but 0ot ;e:emons, 0e% Por4 9imes, 2$!", http#$$%%%&nytimes&com$2 !"$ 2$!@$opinion$:iants(but(not(he:emons&htmlHLrS *$$+P 7A+;C0=9O0 J 9oday, many fear that the emer:in: American(2hinese duopoly must inevitably lead to conflict& 1ut C do not believe that %ars for :lobal domination are a serious prospect in %hat is no% the Post( ;e:emonic A:e& Admittedly, the historical record is dismal& +ince the onset of :lobal politics 2 years a:o, four lon: %ars (includin: the 2old 7ar* %ere fou:ht over the domination of Gurope, each of %hich could have resulted in :lobal he:emony by a sole superpo%er& Pet several developments over recent years have chan:ed the eMuation& 0uclear %eapons ma4e he:emonic %ars too destructive, and thus victory meanin:less& One(sided national economic triumphs cannot be achieved in the increasin:ly inter%oven :lobal economy %ithout precipitatin: calamitous conseMuences for everyone& Further, the populations of the %orld have a%a4ened politically and are not so easily subdued, even by the most po%erful& Kast but not least, neither the 3nited +tates nor 2hina is driven by hostile ideolo:ies& /oreover, despite our very different political systems, both our societies are, in different %ays, open& 9hat, too, offsets pressure from %ithin each respective society to%ard animus and hostility& /ore than ! , 2hinese are students at American universities, and thousands of youn: Americans study and %or4 in 2hina or participate in special study or travel pro:rams& 3nli4e in the former +oviet 3nion, millions of 2hinese re:ularly travel abroad& And millions of youn: 2hinese are in daily touch %ith the %orld throu:h the Cnternet& All this contrasts :reatly %ith the societal self(isolation of the !?th( and 2 th(century contestants for :lobal po%er, %hich intensified :rievances, escalated hostility and made it easier to demoni)e the one another&

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Iran !rol&f
;ero e+&%ence to support Iran&an prol&ferat&on cla&ms are fa3r&cate% to :ust&f' sanct&ons !ress ,<F 7/* (0o evidence Cran is see4in: to build nuclear %eapon# Jac4 +tra%, E$F$!", http#$$%%%&presstv&ir$detail$2 !"$ E$ F$"!2@FB$no(proof(iran(is(after(n%eapon(stra%$*$$+P 9here is no evidence, not from the CAGA (the Cnternational Atomic Gner:y A:ency*, not from the Americans &&& 9here is no evidence that they (Cranians* are involved in buildin: a bomb, +tra% said at a 9hursday 9Q panel discussion at the 1ritish state(run broadcaster, the 112& +tra%, %ho served as actin: shado% deputy prime minister of the 3nited >in:dom in 2 ! , also referred to the 2 E 3+ 0ational Cntelli:ence Gstimate (0CG* that verified Cran %as not after nuclear arms& 9he 0CG report, prepared by !F 3+ intelli:ence a:encies, confirmed %ith hi:h confidence the peaceful nature of Cran8s nuclear pro:ram& A similar report %as also published in 2 !!& At one point durin: the discussion, +tra% struc4 bac4 at a fello% panelist, %ho %as insistin: on the unfounded alle:ation about CranAs nuclear ener:y pro:ram, and as4ed her, ;ave they (the Cranians* :ot a nuclear bombH and then posed the rhetorical Muestion to the defiant panelist, 7here is the evidenceHX +tra% %elcomed the election of ;assan -ohani as Cran8s ne5t president in the June !@ vote, sayin:, 7hat C have been ur:in: the :overnment is that %e do our best to reen:a:e %ith Cranians, because there is a chance no% that %e can& -ohani, %ho %as CranAs former chief nuclear ne:otiator from October 2 " to Au:ust 2 D, %on Cran8s !!th presidential election, :arnerin: D &E percent of a total of "F,E @,!DF ballots& 9he 3+, Csrael and some of their allies falsely claim that Cran is pursuin: non(civilian ob'ectives in its nuclear ener:y pro:ram, %ith 7ashin:ton and the Guropean 3nion usin: the unfounded claim as a prete5t to impose ille:al sanctions on Cran& 9ehran stron:ly re'ects the alle:ation over its nuclear ener:y activities, maintainin: that as a committed si:natory to the 0on(Proliferation 9reaty (0P9* and a member of the CAGA, it has the ri:ht to use nuclear technolo:y for peaceful purposes& Iran "&ll ne+er %e+elop nuclear "eapons t(e' fa+or %&sarmament @, Ne"sF 13 (Cran has no intention to develop nuclear %eapon +upreme Keader, 2$!F, http#$$rt&com$ne%s$iran(nuclear(%eapons(ille:al("E"$2*$$+P Cran has no intention to develop nuclear %eapons, but if it did, no country could prevent it from doin: so, Cranian +upreme Keader Ayatollah Ali >hamenei said on +aturday& <7e believe nuclear arms must be eliminated, and %e donAt %ant to build nuclear arms,< >hamenei said, as Muoted by the Cranian +tudentsA 0e%s A:ency (C+0A*& Cn his speech, >hamenei lashed out at the 3+ and accused them of fraud, sayin: that 7ashin:ton is callin: for the elimination of nuclear %eapons %hile continuin: to produce them& 9he 3nited +tates and other 7estern po%ers suspect that Cran is enrichin: uranium for an atomic %eapons pro:ram& Cn the past, the countryAs officials have said that a ban on nuclear %eapons issued by +upreme Keader >hamenei is bindin: for the Cslamic -epublic& Garlier this %ee4, the Cranian Forei:n /inistry called for the destruction of all nuclear arms follo%in: 0orth >oreaAs third nuclear test& <7e need to come to the point %here no country has any nuclear %eapons and at the same time all %eapons of mass destruction and nuclear arms need to be destroyed,< Forei:n /inistry spo4esperson -amin /ehmanparast said& No Iran&an prol&ferat&on an% no &mpact &f &t %oes (appen Has(em&F 12 /A in 9errorism, +ecurity T +ociety, >in:8s 2olle:e Kondon (9om, 9he Gffects Of A 0uclear Cran, @$2@, http#$$theris4yshift&com$2 !2$ @$%ith(reference(to(israels(nuclear(html$*$$+P Cnitially considerin: the reasons %hy Cran %ould desire a nuclear %eapon, this paper proceeded to assert the improbability of Cranian acMuisition of a nuclear %eapon throu:h an analysis of Csraeli nuclear strate:y and the Je%ish state8s irrevocable attitude to%ards preventin: any re:ional po%er challen:in: its military superiority& Cn the implausible circumstance that such an eventuality manifests, this paper has ar:ued that of all the

Nuclear War MICHIGAN 7WS 2013 150/221 pro5imate states li4ely to vie% an Cranian %eapon as a security threat, +audi Arabia, %ith its financial reserves and stron: lin4s to +unni Pa4istan, is the most li4ely to attempt proliferation& 9his paper has posited that such a development is containable throu:h the provision of a %ell(received and believed(in American nuclear umbrella, conventional arm sales to limit Cranian influence and strin:ent controls on the spread of e5istin: nuclear technolo:y& +yrian, G:yptian and CraMi nuclear development is unli4ely for a host of reasons, thou:h inevitably such predictions rest on the onto:enesis of these states follo%in: recent upheavals& Katterly, if the CraM(0& >orea paradi:m holds true, 9ehran %ould have no reason to impact on oil shippin: in the +trait of ;ormu), not least out of consideration for the detrimental effects on the Cranian economy& 9his paper further asserted the absurdity of the su::estion that the Cslamic -epublic %ould provide its pro5ies %ith a nuclear %eapon& 7hether a nuclear %eapon %ould morph Cran into a re:ional a::ressor, or %hether its possession of such a bomb %ould provide the foundations for inte:ration %ith the 7est has been left unans%ered& Csraeli nuclear capability allo%ed the Je%ish state some semblance of security in a re:ion of hostile Arab states& A Persian nuclear capability %ould serve the same purpose& Iran&an nuclear pro)ram &s peaceful prol&ferat&on )oes a)a&nst Islam .3orneF 13 2olumnist, 6aily /ail and 6aily 9ele:raph (Peter, 0o, Cran does not posses nuclear %eapons, 9he +pectator, D$!, http#$$blo:s&spectator&co&u4$coffeehouse$2 !"$ D$no(iran(is(an(independent(nation( %ith(le:itimate(interests(that(does(not(posses(nuclear(%eapons$*$$+P A number of very unpleasant claims have been made a:ainst 6avid /orrison in the last fe% %ee4s& Cf he %as :uilty of any of them C %ould not dream of havin: him as my co(author or callin: him my friend& /ean%hile not one of our critics have even tried to deal %ith the central, factual points of our short boo4# that Cran isn8t in possession of nuclear %eapons and isn8t buildin: themR that the 3+ and Csraeli intelli:ence a:encies don8t thin4 they areR that Cran is entitled under the 0on(Proliferation 9reaty to develop peaceful nuclear po%erR that in 2 D it put proposals on the table to do this under full international scrutiny (includin: co(o%nership*& 7e ac4no%led:e that Cran8s human ri:hts record as =eoffrey -obertson has :raphically portrayed in his recent boo4 is dreadful& 7e vie% President Ahmadine'ad8s denials of the ;olocaust as utterly odious& ;o%ever, to 'ud:e Cran by Ahmadine'ad alone %ould be a mista4e& ;e steps do%n in a fe% %ee4s, and in any case the final decision on nuclear matters lies %ith the +upreme Keader, %ho has repeatedly denounced nuclear %eapons as forbidden under Cslam& Ct is in the best interest of the %est, let alone ordinary Cranians %hose lives are bein: made miserable by sanctions, to en:a:e %ith Cran pra:matically rather than carry on %ith the current policy of isolation& Cn the %a4e of June8s elections %e hope and believe that a solution satisfactory to all parties can be a:reed& 7e passionately believe that the alternative is too :hastly to contemplate& ;o%ever, if an a:reement is to be reached, %e in the %est need to reco:ni)e that Cran %ith all its faults is an independent nation %ith le:itimate interests, and is a fully si:ned up member of the 0on(Proliferation 9reaty, %ith every ri:ht to enrich uranium& Mult&ple (&stor&cal e1amples pro+e no &mpact to prol&ferat&on WaltF 12 Professor of Cnternational Affairs, >ennedy +chool of =overnment, ;arvard 3niversity (+tephen /&, 9he mother of all %orst(case assumptions about Cran, !!$" , http#$$%alt&forei:npolicy&com$posts$2 !2$!!$" $theLmotherLofLallL%orstLcaseLassumptionsLaboutLiran*$ $+P 2onsider the historical record& 6id the %orld turn on its a5is %hen the mi:hty +oviet 3nion tested its first bomb in !?@?H Althou:h alarmist documents li4e 0+2(FB %arned of a vast increase in +oviet influence and a::ressiveness, +oviet nuclear development simply reinforced the caution that both superpo%ers %ere already displayin: to%ards each other& 9he 3nited +tates already sa% the 3++- as an enemy, and the basic principles of containment %ere already in place& 0A9O %as bein: formed before the +oviet test and +oviet dominance of Gastern Gurope %as already a fait accompli& ;avin: sole possession of the bomb hadnAt enabled 9ruman to simply dictate to +talin, and :ettin: the bomb didnAt enable +talin or his successors to blac4mail any of their nei:hbors or 4ey 3&+& allies& Ct certainly didnAt lead any countries to <reorient their political ali:nment to%ard /osco%&< 0i4ita >hrushchevAs subseMuent missile rattlin: merely stren:thened the cohesion of 0A9O and other 3&+&(led alliances, and %e no% 4no% that much of his bluster %as intended to conceal +oviet strate:ic inferiority& ;avin: a lar:e nuclear

Nuclear War MICHIGAN 7WS 2013 151/221 arsenal didnAt stop the anti(commnist uprisin:s in Gast =ermany, ;un:ary, 2)echoslova4ia, or Poland, and didnAt allo% the +oviet 3nion to %in in Af:hanistan& 0or did it prevent the 3++- from eventually collapsin: entirely& 6id 1ritish and French acMuisition of nuclear %eapons slo% their decline as :reat po%ersH 0ot in the sli:htest& ;avin: the force de frappe may have made 6e =aulle feel better about French presti:e and havin: their o%n deterrent made both states less dependent on AmericaAs security umbrella, but it didnAt :ive either state a louder voice in %orld affairs or %in them ne% influence any%here& And you mi:ht recall that 1ritain couldnAt :et Ar:entina to :ive bac4 the Fal4lands by issuin: nuclear threats (( even thou:h Ar:entina had no bomb of its o%n and no nuclear :uarantee (( they had to :o reta4e the islands %ith conventional forces& 6id 2hinaAs detonation of a bomb in !?F@ suddenly ma4e them a superpo%erH ;ardly& 2hina remained a minor actor on the %orld sta:e until it adopted mar4et principles, and its risin: :lobal influence is due to three decades of economic :ro%th, not a pile of nu4es& And by the %ay, did :ettin: a bomb enable /ao Zedon:((a cruel me:alomaniac %ho launched the disastrous =reat Keap For%ard in !?DE and the destructive 2ultural -evolution in the !?F s (( to start threatenin: and blac4mailin: his nei:hborsH 0ope& Cn fact, 2hinaAs forei:n policy behavior after !?F@ %as :enerally Muite restrained& 7hat about CsraelH 6oes CsraelAs nuclear arsenal allo% it to coerce its nei:hbors or impose its %ill on ;e)bollah or the PalestiniansH 0o& Csrael uses its conventional military superiority to try to do these thin:s, not its nuclear arsenal& Cndeed, CsraelAs bomb didnAt even prevent G:ypt and +yria from attac4in: it in October !?E", althou:h it did help convince them to limit their aims to re:ainin: the territory they had lost in !?FE& Ct is also %orth notin: that CsraelAs nuclear pro:ram did not tri::er a rapid arms race either& Althou:h states li4e CraM and Kibya did establish their o%n 7/6 pro:rams after Csrael :ot the bomb, none of their nuclear efforts moved very rapidly or made it across the finish line& 1ut %ait, thereAs more& 9he %hite :overnment in +outh Africa eventually produced a handful of bombs, but nobody noticed and apartheid ended any%ay& 9hen the ne% :overnment :ave up its nuclear arsenal to much acclaim& Cf anythin:, +outh Africa %as more secure %ithout an arsenal than it %as before& 7hat about Cndia and Pa4istanH CndiaAs <peaceful nuclear e5plosion< in !?E@ didnAt turn it into a :lobal superpo%er, and its only real effect %as to spur Pa4istan (( %hich %as already an avo%ed rival (( to :et one too& And itAs %orth notin: that there hasnAt been a lar:e(scale %ar bet%een the t%o countries since, despite considerable :rievances on both sides and occasional s4irmishes and other provocations& Finally, 0orth >orea is as annoyin: and %eird as it has al%ays been, but :ettin: nuclear %eapons didnAt transform it from an economic bas4et case into a mi:hty re:ional po%er and didnAt ma4e it more inclined to misbehave& Cn fact, %hat is most remar4able about 0orth >oreaAs nuclear pro:ram is ho% little impact it has had on its nei:hbors& +tates li4e Japan and +outh >orea could :o nuclear very Muic4ly if they %anted to, but neither has done so in the si5 years since 0orth >oreaAs first nuclear test& -ffects of Iran prol&ferat&on are )reatl' e1a))erate% emp&r&cs pro+e no &mpact WaltF 12 Professor of Cnternational Affairs, >ennedy +chool of =overnment, ;arvard 3niversity (+tephen /&, 9he mother of all %orst(case assumptions about Cran, !!$" , http#$$%alt&forei:npolicy&com$posts$2 !2$!!$" $theLmotherLofLallL%orstLcaseLassumptionsLaboutLiran*$ $+P 9he debate on Cran and its nuclear pro:ram does little credit to the 3&+& forei:n policy community, because much of it rests on dubious assumptions that do not stand up to even casual scrutiny& Kots of in4, pi5els, and air(time has been devoted to discussin: %hether Cran truly %ants a bomb, ho% close it mi:ht be to :ettin: one, ho% %ell sanctions are %or4in:, %hether the mullahs in char:e are <rational,< and %hether a ne% diplomatic initiative is advisable& +imilarly, 'ournalists, politicians and policy %on4s spend endless hours as4in: if and %hen Csrael mi:ht attac4 and %hether the 3nited +tates should help& 1ut %e hardly ever as4 ourselves if this issue is bein: blo%n %ildly out of proportion& At bottom, the %hole debate on Cran rests on the assumption that Cranian acMuisition of a nuclear %eapon %ould be an event of shatterin: :eopolitical si:nificance# On a par %ith ;itlerAs rise to po%er in =ermany in !?"", the fall of France in !?@ , the +ino(+oviet split, or the brea4up of the former +oviet 3nion& Cn this spirit, ;enry >issin:er recently ar:ued that a latent Cranian capability (that is, the capacity to obtain a bomb fairly Muic4ly* %ould have fearsome conseMuences all by itself& Gven if Cran stopped short of some red line, >issin:er claims this %ould# !* cause <uncontrollable military nuclear proliferation throu:hout \the] re:ion,< 2* <lead many of CranAs nei:hbors to reorient their political ali:nment to%ard 9ehran< "* <submer:e the reformist

Nuclear War MICHIGAN 7WS 2013 152/221 tendencies in the Arab +prin:,< and @* deliver a <potentially fatal blo%< to hopes for reducin: :lobal nuclear arsenals& 7o%& And thatAs 'ust if Cran has nuclear potential and not even an actual %eaponX Ct follo%s that the 3nited +tates must either persuade them to :ive up most of their enrichment capacity or :o to %ar to destroy it& Pet this <mother of all assumptions< is simply asserted and rarely e5amined& 9he obvious Muestion to as4 is this# did prior acts of nuclear proliferation have the same fearsome conseMuences that Cran ha%4s no% forecastH 9he ans%er is no& Cn fact, the spread of nuclear %eapons has had remar4ably little impact on the basic nature of %orld politics and the ran4in: of ma'or po%ers& 9he main effect of the nuclear revolution has been to induce :reater caution in the behavior of both those %ho possessed the bomb and anyone %ho had to deal %ith a nuclear(armed adversary& Proliferation has not transformed %ea4 states into influential :lobal actors, has not :iven nuclear(armed states the ability to blac4mail their nei:hbors or force them to 4o%to%, and it has not tri::ered far(reachin: re:ional arms races& Cn short, fears that an Cranian bomb %ould transform re:ional or :lobal politics have been :reatly e5a::eratedR one mi:ht even say that they are 'ust a lot of hooey& Stu%&es an% emp&r&cs pro+e no &mpact to prol&ferat&on e1a))erat&n) t(e effects onl' &ncent&+&9es Iran to )o nuclear WaltF 12 Professor of Cnternational Affairs, >ennedy +chool of =overnment, ;arvard 3niversity (+tephen /&, 9he mother of all %orst(case assumptions about Cran, !!$" , http#$$%alt&forei:npolicy&com$posts$2 !2$!!$" $theLmotherLofLallL%orstLcaseLassumptionsLaboutLiran*$ $+P Cn short, both theory and history teach us that :ettin: a nuclear %eapon has less impact on a countryAs po%er and influence than many believe, and the slo% spread of nuclear %eapons has only modest effects on :lobal and re:ional politics& 0uclear %eapons are :ood for deterrin: direct attac4s on oneAs homeland, and they induce :reater caution in the minds of national leaders of all 4inds& 7hat they donAt do is turn %ea4 states into :reat po%ers, they are useless as tools of blac4mail, and they cost a lot of money& 9hey also lead other states to %orry more about oneAs intentions and to band to:ether for self(protection& For these reasons, most potential nuclear states have concluded that :ettin: the bomb isnAt %orth it& 1ut a fe% states(and usually those %ho are %orried about bein: attac4ed(decide to :o ahead& 9he :ood ne%s is that %hen they do, it has remar4ably little impact on %orld affairs& For some stran:e reason, ho%ever, the 3&+& national security community seems to thin4 that both lo:ic and all this prior history does not apply to Cran& 9hey for:et that similarly dire %arnin:s %ere uttered before many of these others states :ot the bomb, yet none of these fearsome forecasts too4 place& Cronically, by repeatedly offerin: doom(and(:loom scenarios about the vast :eopolitical conseMuences of an Cranian bomb, they may be stren:thenin: the hands of Cranian hardliners %ho mi:ht be interested in actually obtainin: a %or4in: %eapon& After all, if :ettin: a bomb %ould :ive Cran all the influence that >issin:er and others fear, %hy %ouldnAt 9ehran %ant oneH Cn fact, the smart %ay to discoura:e Cran from :oin: nuclear is both to ta4e the threat of force off the table (thereby reducin: CranAs perceived need for a deterrent* and to ma4e it clear that :ettin: a bomb %onAt brin: Cran bi: strate:ic benefits and %onAt affect :lobal or re:ional politics very much if at all& And in this case, the smart strate:y has the additional merit of bein: true& ;ero r&s# of Iran&an prol&ferat&on 10 reasons Mousa+&anF 12 -esearch +cholar, 7oodro% 7ilson +chool of Cnternational and Public Affairs, Princeton 3niversity (+eyed ;ossain, 9en -easons Cran 6oesn8t 7ant the 1omb, !2$@, http#$$nationalinterest&or:$print$commentary$ten(reasons(iran(doesnt(%ant(the(bomb(EB 2*$$+P 9he follo%in: reasons aim to stren:then the case for %hy Cran is not after a nuclear bomb# !& -eli:ious Obli:ations # 1esides an international commitment to 0uclear 0on(Proliferation 9reaty (0P9*, Cran has reli:ious obli:ations a:ainst nuclear %eapons& 1ased \"] on \@] the +upreme Keader Ayatollah >hamenei8s reli:ious edict or fat%a, the use of nuclear %eapons and all other types of 7eapons of /ass 6estruction (7/6* is forbidden or haramJconstitutin: a sin, %hile bein: useless, costly, harmful and a serious threat to humanity& Cran8s authorities %ere informed about this reli:ious vie% in !??D, ei:ht years prior to Cran8s enrichment pro:ram became 4no%n to the 7est& Keavin: no room for discrepancy, all /uslim +hia :rand ayatollahs have issued the same reli:ious fat%a&

Nuclear War MICHIGAN 7WS 2013 153/221 Cran8s stance a:ainst %eapons of mass destruction, %hich is far from ne%, has been put to the test& 6urin: the Cran(CraM %ar, +addam ;ussein ordered chemical %eapons to be used a:ainst Cran in the !?B s, resultin: in ! , Cranian soldiers and civilians bein: 4illed or in'ured& Cran did not retaliate in 4ind primarily because Cmam -uhollah >homeini %as a:ainst the use of %eapons of mass destruction based on reli:ious beliefs& 2& 0o Kon:(9erm Advanta:e# 1ased on Cranian assessments, the possession of nuclear %eapons %ould provide only a short(term re:ional advanta:e that %ould turn into a lon:er(term vulnerability& Ct %ould tri::er a re:ional nuclear arms race, brin:in: G:ypt, 9ur4ey, and +audi Arabia into the fold sooner or later& "& 9echnolo:y 2hoices# 9he technical confi:urations Cran has chosen for its nuclear pro:ram demonstrate a preference for a robust enrichment capability rather than for a rapid nuclear %eapons brea4out capability& Cran8s development pro:ram is focused on ne5t(:eneration nuclear technolo:ies, rather than mass production or ma5imum installation of centrifu:es& 9here are more advanta:eous confi:urations Cran could implement if it %as determined to acMuire %eapons in the near term& Cran has sho%n no ur:ency to advance its nuclear dual(use efforts& Gven the activities detailed in the 0ovember 2 !! Cnternational Atomic Gner:y A:ency report are not directed at any specific nuclear %eaponi)ation& Accordin: \D] to -obert >elly, an American top nuclear e5pert and the former Cnternational Atomic Gner:y A:ency (CAGA* inspector, the report %as misleadin: and aimed to bolster hardliners by ta4in: information and feedin: it as ra% meat to people %ho %ant to move for%ard %ith %ar& @& Csolation# Cran reco:ni)es that by becomin: a nuclear %eapons state, it %ill compel -ussia and 2hina to 'oin the 3nited +tates and implement devastatin: sanctions that %ould paraly)e the Cranian economy& Cran reco:ni)es that becomin: a nuclear %eapons state %ould :ive the Csraelis ample ammunition to rally the 3nited +tates and the international community on a perceived e5istential threat to its e5istence for creatin: another %ar in the /iddle Gast& D& Aspirations# Cran8s ultimate strate:y is to be a modern nation, fully capable of competin: %ith the 7est in terms of advanced technolo:ies& 9he ma'ority of Cran8s prominent politicians believe that possessin: nuclear %eapons %ould be an obstacle in the lon:(term for Cran8s access to vast technolo:ical cooperation %ith developed countries& 9hey do not %ant to see Cran come under the 4ind of e5treme international isolation levied a:ainst 0orth >orea& F& =ood%ill# 6urin: ne:otiations from 2 " to 2 D, %ith Cran and France, =ermany, and the 3> (the G3("*, Cran submitted proposals %hich included a declaration to cap enrichment at D percentR to e5port all lo%(enriched uranium or fabricate it into fuel rodsR to commit to an additional protocol to its CAGA safe:uards a:reement and subsidiary arran:ements to the a:reement, %hich %ould provide ma5imum transparencyR to allo% the CAGA to ma4e snap inspections of undeclared facilitiesR and to ship its enriched uranium to another country for fabrication into fuel rods for 9ehran -esearch -eactor& +imilarly, Cran %elcomed \F] the -ussian step(by(step proposal in the summer of 2 !!, %hich addressed \E] all the 7est8s concerns about Cran8s nuclear activities& 9hese offers %ere intended to ensure that no enriched uranium %ould be diverted to a nuclear %eapons pro:ram in the future& 9hat8s %hy the Cranian Forei:n /inistry spo4esman recently said \B]# Cran, in order to prove its :ood%ill, has even :one beyond the commitments enumerated in the a:ency8s re:ulations& 1ut the 3nited +tates and G3 still re'ected the offer& E& 0o +toc4pile# Accusations levied a:ainst Cran for stoc4pilin: enriched uranium to build nuclear %eapon are misleadin:, since Cran reMuires 2E tons of uranium enriched at "&D percent level annually to provide fuel for its only nuclear po%er plant in 1ushehr& 3p to no%, Cran has produced about E tons and needs an additional 2 tons& B& Gnrichment Offers# 9he 7est8s bi::est concern and therefore hi:hest priority in nuclear tal4s have centered on Cran8s 2 percent enriched uranium& First in February 2 ! and for the second time in +eptember 2 !!, Cran proposed to stop its 2 percent enrichment in return for fuel rodsJand once a:ain the 7est declined& At a meetin: bet%een G3 Forei:n Policy 2hief 2atherine Ashton and Cran8s leadin: nuclear ne:otiator +aeed Jalili on +eptember !?, Cran once a:ain offered \?] to suspend its enrichment of uranium to 2 percent, provided proportionate reciprocation %ould be ta4en by PD`!& <Cf they :ive us the 2 percent \enriched] fuel, %e %ill immediately halt 2 percent \enrichment],< Ahmadine'ad said \! ] in an intervie% %ith Cranian state(run television& 1ut Gurope responded to his :ood%ill by placin: more sanctions& ?& 6eterrence# A ma'or accusation levied a:ainst Cran is that once it acMuires nuclear %eapons, it %ill use it a:ainst the 3nited +tates and Csrael& 9his ma4es no rational sense, since any provocation by Cran a:ainst t%o states that possess thousands and hundreds of nuclear %eapons respectively %ould result in Cran8s total annihilation& Cran has publically ac4no%led:ed \!!] this fact&

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! & For:et -e:ime 2han:e#

MICHIGAN 7WS 2013

9he vie% of some 3&+& politicians is that Cran8s motive for see4in: nuclear %eapons is nuclear deterrenceJto ensure 7ashin:ton %ould not attac4 it at %ill, insti:ate re:ime chan:e or reach its ob'ectives& Cf this concern is accurate, then Cran8s nuclear %eapons could be used to prevent %arJa positive outcome& 1ut this concern relies on the %ron: premise, as Cran has not aimed to acMuire nuclear %eapons in the face of a concerted effort by the 3nited +tates and the 7est to en:ineer re:ime chan:e in 9ehran, includin: the use of %ar& 6urin: ei:ht years of CraMi a::ression a:ainst Cran, the 3nited +tates and the 7est did their utmost to support the a::ressor and yet failed to brin: defeat to Cran& Parado5ically for some, Cran %ithout nuclear %eapons has become more po%erful year after year in the past "@ years, stymyin: 7estern efforts to brin: about the collapse of the re:ime& /ean%hile, the 3&+& and Csraeli positions in the re:ion have declined despite the thousands of nuclear %eapons bet%een them&

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MICHIGAN 7WS 2013

Me1&co Collapse/Aa&le% State

No r&s# of a Me1&can fa&le% state ,(e -conom&stF 12 (From dar4ness, da%n, !!$2@$2 !2, http#$$%%%&economist&com$ne%s$special( report$2!DFFEE"(after(years(underachievement(and(risin:(violence(me5ico(last(be:innin:* $$ /+ 9;G APO2AKPP+G 7A+ on its %ay, and it %ould be:in in /e5ico& 7here elseH 7hen archaeolo:ists du: up /ayan calendars that
precedin: fe% years fairly :rim& Cn

ominously seemed to run out in the final days of 2 !2, some doomsayers predicted the end of the %orld& 9o many /e5icans it seemed li4e 'ust another e5ample of their country8s unendin: run of bad luc4& 9he steepest recession on the American mainland, a pla:ue of ;!0! s%ine flu and a deepenin: %ar a:ainst or:anised crime had made the

2 ? the Penta:on had :iven %arnin: that /e5ico could become a failed state& Arma:eddon %ould be the icin: on the ca4e& 1ut it turns out that the /ayan :lyphs %ere misunderstood& 9he men %ith ma:nifyin: :lasses no% say that the %orld is not about to endJin fact, it seems that the /ayans %ere predictin: somethin: more li4e a rene%al or a fresh start& 2ould the same be true of /e5icoH 9his special report %ill ar:ue that there is a :ood chance of it& +ome a%ful years are :ivin: %ay to %hat, if mana:ed properly, could be a prosperous period for Katin America8s second(lar:est economy& 1i:, irreversible trends, from a fallin: birth rate at home to risin: %a:es in 2hina, are startin: to move in /e5ico8s favour& At the same time the country8s leaders are at last startin: to tac4le some of the home(:ro%n problems that have held it bac4& /any of the thin:s that the %orld thin4s it 4no%s about /e5ico are no lon:er true& A serially underachievin: economy, repeatedly trumped by dynamic 1ra)ilH /e5ico outpaced 1ra)il last year and %ill :ro% t%ice as fast this year& Out(of(control population :ro%th and an endless e5odus to the northH 0et emi:ration is do%n to )ero, if not ne:ative, and the fertility rate %ill soon be lo%er than that of the 3 nited +tates& =rindin: povertyH Pes, but alleviated by services such as universal free health care& A ra:in: dru: %arH 9he failure of rich countries8 anti(dru:s policies means that or:anised crime %ill not :o a%ay& 1ut /e5ico8s murder rate is no% fallin:, albeit slo%ly, for the first time in five years& A vast country %ith deeply in:rained problems and unreformed corners, /e5ico could yet sMuander the opportunities that are comin: its
%ay& 1ut there are si:ns that it is be:innin: to realise its potential& 7ith luc4, the dire predictions made by the Penta:on and others may turn out to be as reliable as a misread /ayan calendar& Preparin: to lead /e5ico into this bri:htenin: future is the party most associated %ith its past& 9he Cnstitutional -evolutionary Party (P-C* ran /e5ico %ithout interruption for most of the 2 th century, silencin: opposition throu:h a mi5ture of co(option, corruption and occasional violence& Only in 2 did it :ive up its :rip on po%er to the conservative 0ational Action Party (PA0*, %hich fielded t%o presidents in succession# Qicente Fo5, a former e5ecutive at 2oca(2ola, and Felipe 2alderan, a la%yer %hose father %as a foundin: member of the party& On 6ecember !st /r 2alderan %ill hand over the presidency to the P-C8s GnriMue Peca 0ieto, %ho %on a clear election victory on July !st& A handsome @F(year(old %ith a :ift for communication, /r

Peca claims to be the opposite of the croo4ed party men %ho ran the country in its pre(democratic days& 1ut %ill the chan:e be more than superficialH /r Peca says his priority is to ma4e the economy :ro% faster in order to reduce poverty & 0early half the population are poor, many of them in the south (see map*& 9o /r Peca has reason to be optimistic& 9he opposition PA0 shares much of /r Peca8s a:enda, and to:ether the t%o parties have a t%o(thirds ma'ority in both houses of 2on:ress& A ne% po%er to fast(trac4 t%o bills per con:ressional session %ill help& A lot %ill depend on %ho ends up leadin: the PA0, %hich is restive and rudderless after finishin: third in the presidential election& 9he handover period bet%een July8s election and 6ecember8s inau:uration has been a model of presidential co(operation& /r 2alderan8s crac4do%n on /e5ico8s vindictive criminals has :iven him a personal reason to stay on :ood terms %ith the ne%
:overnment, to ma4e sure of the protection he and his family %ill need %hen he leaves office&

achieve more rapid :ro%th he %ill need to introduce a series of bi: economic reforms, some of %hich /r 2alderan attempted durin: his presidency, only to see them :et stuc4 in /e5ico8s cantan4erous 2on:ress& 9he P-C had hoped to %in a ma'ority in the summer8s elections, but it fell short by !! in the D (member 2hamber of 6eputies and by four in the !2B(member +enate& Cn any case, some of the most important reforms %ill need chan:es to the constitution, %hich reMuire a t%o(thirds ma'ority in 2on:ress& ;o%ever,

No r&s# of Me1&can collapse t(e&r aut(ors are alarm&sts NAMF 11 the countryAs first and lar:est national collaboration and advocate of 2 ethnic ne%s or:ani)ations, founded by the nonprofit Pacific 0e%s +ervice %ith partnerships %ith 'ournalism schools to :ro% local associations of ethnic media (/e5ico and the /yth of the ^Failed +tate,8 E$?$2 !!, http#$$ne%americamedia&or:$2 !!$ E$me5ico(and(the(myth(of(the(failed(state&php* $$/+
/G-C6A, /e5icoJ For

more than four decades, Americans have e5pressed alarm at %hat they see the imminent collapse of the /e5ican :overnment, %arnin: their fello% citi)ens that /e5ico is a failed state& 1ut far from bein: a failed state, /e5ico is provin: itself to be one of the most successful countries in the %orld, one that has made the transition from an a:rarian economy to a modern industriali)ed one, %hile movin: from a closed, authoritarian re:ime to a vibrant democracy& Far too many Americans ma4e the mista4e of thin4in: /e5ico as the country portrayed in the !?D s& Over the past half century, it has become one of the most important economies in the %orld& 9he 7orld 1an4, the Cnternational /onetary Fund and the 2CA 7orld Factboo4 each ran4 /e5ico as the !@th lar:est economy& /e5ico has one of the most comprehensive social %elfare pro:rams any%here in the hemisphere& 9his is a country that strives, albeit imperfectly and not al%ays successfully, to provide for the :eneral %ell(bein:& Pes, :iven its resources and its population, many people fall bet%een the crac4s& Of
/e5ico8s population of !! million, some " million, or a little over a Muarter, are livin: in the informal economy, as it is euphemistically called& For comparative purposes, !&D in ! Americans rely on food stamps, and in the lar:est American city, 0e% Por4, ! in @ children live belo% the federal poverty

Nuclear War MICHIGAN 7WS 2013 15*/221 line& 0o country addresses all of the needs of its people, but /e5ico is dili:ent in at least %or4in: to%ards that end& Cf you thin4 that /e5ico is a country %ith no la%s or le:al institutions , a 4ind of place reminiscent of some ;olly%ood movie %here it8s the 7ild, 7ild 7est, then you are in for a surprise& /e5ico is one of the most bureaucratic nations in the hemisphereJit rivals France %hen it comes to official paper%or4X And it rivals the +candinavian countries %hen it comes to its aspirations for bein: a nanny state& Cn fact, international a:enciesJfrom the 7orld 1an4 to the C nternational /onetary FundJ continue to remind /e5ico that it has to streamline its bureaucracy if it %ants to become more competitive in the :lobal economy& Americans, ho%ever, are reluctant to :ive /e5ico credit %here credit is due& 9he myth of /e5ico as a failed state be:an
%ith 1arry =old%ater, %ho lamented that the !?FB +ummer Olympic =ames %ere bein: held in /e5ico 2ity, the capital of %hat he called a falterin: nation& +ince then, Americans have discovered that /e5ico(bashin: is a sure %ay of ma4in: a Muic4 buc4 on trash

boo4s& 9his is an attempt to understand /e5icoAs steep descent into turmoil, is ho% Andres Oppenheimer8s !??B boo4, 1orderin: on 2haos, %as mar4eted& Kess than t%o years later, /e5ico made a peaceful transition for a sin:le(party state to a full democracy by electin: its first opposition leader in seven decades& Accordin: to American commentators, a decade later, /e5ico is still on the ver:e of collapsin:& 9he \/e5ican] state has not yet ta4en control of dru: traffic4in:, and its stren:th is steadily
diminishin:, is =eor:e =rayson8s !??? ta4e in his boo4, /e5ico# 0arco(Qiolence and a Failed +tateH 9he boo4 claimed to document state disinte:ration& And the ne%s media continues to feed a constant stream of failed state alarmism & From the 7all +treet Journal to 0ational Public -adio, Americans are told of /e5ico8s impendin: collapse& Joel >urt)man %arned in the Journal in 2 ? that# /e5ico is at ris4 of becomin: a failed state& 6efense planners li4en the situation to that of Pa4istan, %here %holesale collapse of civil :overnment is possible&

Me1&co "on7t fa&l pol&t&cal sta3&l&t' an% relat&ons c(ec# A)u&larF 10 bachelorAs de:ree in Gn:lish from the 3niversity of 9e5as and masterAs in 'ournalism from the Fran4 7& /ayborn =raduate Cnstitute of Journalism at the 3niversity of 0orth 9e5as (Julifn, Ambassadors +ay /e5ico Cs 0ot a Failed +tate, 9he 9e5as 9ribune, B$!E$2 ! , http#$$%%%&te5astribune&or:$2 ! $ B$!E$ambassadors(say(me5ico(is(not(a(failed(state* $$ /+ Pet diplomats from both sides of the border re'ect the notion raised re:ularly by :overnment officials and media outlets that /e5ico has become a <failed state,< and they call comparisons to /uslim e5tremists mis:uided & 9he horrors of some border communities, they say, overshado% the fact that parts of /e5ico remain stable and are thrivin: economically& 6aily trade bet%een the 3&+& and /e5ico nears [! billionR elections :o on, and so has life in :eneral, as unsettlin: as it may be in border hot spots& 9hat %as the messa:e reiterated last %ee4 by the 3&+& ambassador to /e5ico,
2arlos Pascual, and the /e5ican ambassador the 3&+&, Arturo +aru4han, and other e5perts appearin: at a 1order +ecurity 2onference J <-e(Gnvisionin: the 1order 2ommunity to Foster a 3&+&(/e5ico Partnership for Prosperity, Pro:ress, and +ocio(Gconomic 6evelopment< J at the 3niversity of 9e5as at Gl Paso& 6espite the violence (and, to some de:ree, because of it*, cooperation bet%een the 3&+& and /e5ico has

in many %ays :ro%n to unprecedented levels, the t%o men say& From 39GPAs hilltop campus, a messa:e painted in %hite on a
mountainside, 'ust across the -io =rande, reminds residents that the 1ible, above all else, is the truth& And notables at the conference all spo4e of a border community that %ould inevitably triumph over terror& 1ut on the streets of Jufre), the murders continued unabated# About D people %ould die violent deaths in the days that follo%ed& <A difficult period of time< 9he atrocities have led some to Muestion the future stability of a

nation reelin: from years of civil %ar bet%een rival cartels, and bet%een those :an:s and /e5ican la% enforcement& 1ut Pascual said the <failed state< label belies the reality of stability in much of /e5ico, %here the hallmar4s of any modern nation remain present despite chaos in some corners of the country & /e5ico had a difficult period of time< over the last t%o months, he said& <A candidate %as 4illed before the elections , it %ent throu:h e5treme floods, and it still %ent ahead and had an election process on July @& \9here %ere] !2 :ubernatorial elections, t%o local elections&< A failed state, he said, <%ouldn8t have been able to do that and handle that 4ind of stress& Follo%in: a fatal car bomb J
detonated remotely in Jufre) less than t%o %ee4s after the successful election Pascual referenced J comparisons abounded bet%een the violence traffic4ers and their enforcers and that of /iddle Gastern terrorists %ith e5treme a:endas& ;e does not minimi)e the horrors %rou:ht by traffic4ers but ar:ues that their brand of terror lac4s a 4ey in:redient& 2artels have underta4en ruthless behavior, and it should be

condemned,< Pascual said& <1ut %hat %e also have not seen from the cartels is a political ideolo:y or a reli:ious ideolo:y, and %e need to ma4e that distinction&< 9hose tactics could %arrant a shift in certain strate:ies, he said, but the lines should
not be blurred to lin4 the cartels %ith terrorist activities %ith an ideolo:y& A tale of t%o borders +aru4han, the /e5ican ambassador, says that despite mountin: tensions over immi:ration and border security, cooperation bet%een the 3&+& and his country has risen to a level not seen since the ne:otiation of the 0orth American Free 9rade A:reement& Cnvo4in: a classic line from 6ic4ens, he said itAs the best of times and the %orst of times for relations bet%een the t%o nations& 6espite the naysayers and the cable 9Q pundits out there, it behooves /e5ico to ma4e sure

the border is secure in both directions,< he said& <And %e8ve been %or4in: to:ether since ?$!!, but even more forcefully since President 2alderan and President Obama have been %or4in: to:ether &< +aru4han said this 'oint effort to
reali)e the symbiotic relationship has led to an unprecedented number of security forces alon: the border& C am :oin: to continue to ban: my drum on this issue,< he said of the international cooperation& <9here are individuals out there N see4in: to decouple the 3nited +tates

and /e5ico& \9]here could be nothin: more dan:erous and more problematic to %hat %e8ve been doin: to:ether& 1ut the %orst of times, he said, can be seen in the lac4 of confidence that many, if not most, citi)ens from both countries have in their leaders& Another si:n# state :overnments in the 3&+& ta4in: it upon

Nuclear War MICHIGAN 7WS 2013 157/221 themselves to pass draconian immi:ration la%s and deploy troops to the border, reactin: to a perceived federal failure to act&

Nuclear War 15?/221

MICHIGAN 7WS 2013

Mult&lateral&sm
Mult&lateral&sm emp&r&call' %oesn7t sol+e an't(&n) four reasons Har+e'F 6 3niversity -esearch Professor of Cnternational -elations, professor in the 6epartment of Political +cience, and the director of the 2entre for Forei:n Policy +tudies at 6alhousie 3niversity (Fran4, +mo4e And /irrors# =lobali)ed 9errorism And 9he Cllusion Of /ultilateral +ecurity, p& @"(@D* $$ /+
9he typical ar:ument favourin: multilateralism is a simple one, sum( mari)ed by -amesh 9ha4ur# ^1ecause the %orld is essentially anarchi( cal, it is fundamentally insecure, characteri)ed by strate:ic uncertainty and comple5ity because of too many actors %ith multiple :oals and interests and variable capabilities and convictions& 2ollective action embedded in international institutions that mirror mainly 3&+& value preferences and interests enhances predictability, reduces uncertainty, and cuts the transaction costs of intemational action&8< 7ith respect to peace4eepin:, for e5ample, 9ha4ur ar:ues that if ^the 30 helps to mute the costs and spread the ris4s of the terms of intemational en:a:ement to ma5imise these benefits, the 3nited +tates %ill need to instill in others, as %ell as itself embrace, the principle of multilateralism as a norm in its o%n ri:ht# states must do Y because the 3nited 0ations has called for Y, and :ood states do %hat the 3nited 0ations as4s them to do&8l2 1ut there are several problems %ith 9ha4urAs defence of

collective action and associated policy recommendations, particularly in relation to multilateral approaches to security in a post(?$!! settin:& First, and foremost, state leaders often refuse to do %hat the 30 as4s of them, are often more than prepared to have their publics suffer the conseMuences of %hatever sanctions the 30 can mount, and are rarely directly affected by the sanctions that are implemented assumin: the permanent members of the +ecurity 2ouncil find it in their collective interest to implement a sanctions re:ime in the first place & 9he lessons from 30 intervention and sanction efforts over the past decade are not at all encoura:in: in this re:ard& +econd, many state and non( state actors fall outside the institutional constraints imposed on the system throu:h :lobal norms and re:imes& As the capacity spreads for smaller and smaller :roups to inflict increasin:ly devastatin: levels of dama:e on lar:er states, international institutions %ill lose the capacity to force or coerce compliance %ith international la%& 2onseMuently, leaders of ma'or po%ers, such as the 3nited +tates, %ill be compelled to respond to security threats throu:h unilateral initiatives& 9his compulsion %ill force other po%ers to push that much harder to control American impulses by demandin: that multilateral consensus remain the sole :uarantor of le:itimacy& 9hese tensions %ill be e5acerbated by the prevailin: perception in the 3 nited +tates that these same multilateral institutions are constrainin: the po%er and capacity of the 3&+& :overnment to protect American citi)ens from emer:in: threats of terrorism and proliferation& 9hird, the collective(action ar:ument put for%ard by 9hai(cur typically (and erroneously* assumes that most states are :overned by a similar set of political priorities, share common concerns about similar combinations of security threats, are stimulated into action (or inaction* by the same set of economic imperatives, are inspired by a common set of interests and overarchin: values (such as peace, security, stability*, and are encoura:ed by their respective publics to meet their demands for a common set of public :oods& 1ut the differences, tensions, and overall level of competition amon: states in the system are far :reater than proponents of multilateralism ac4no%led:e& +ome states are more threatened by terrorism and proliferation than others, have more substantial and direct economic interest in particular re:ions, are less interested in securin: peace, and e5perience pressure from their respective publics to pursue very distinct forei:n and security policies& 2onseMuently, there is no :uarantee that a collection of states %ill have the same motivation to chan:e the status Muo, or e5perience the same imperative to address the same security threats %ith the same level of resolve, commitment, or resources (relative to their si)e*& Cn sum, multi( lateral or:ani)ations are less li4ely today to act %ith the same level of ur:ency to address security threats that 7ashin:ton considers imperative& 9he costs of inaction (derived from e5clusive reliance on multilateral consensus* are no% perceived as bein: hi:her than the costs of unilateralism& Althou:h similar threats may have :uided collective action throu:h multilateral alliances for much of the cold %ar, these imperatives %ere a product of a common +oviet threat& 1ut threats today are many and varied, and fe% states share the same concerns or face the same obli:ations to respond& 0o case more clearly illustrates the :ro%in: divisions amon: former allies than the 2 " CraM %ar& Fourth, decreasin: transaction costs may be a valid ar:ument in favour of multilateral cooperation in some cases (e& :&, to facilitate post( conflict
reconstruction, political reforms, democrati)ation, elections run by the Or:ani)ation for +ecurity and 2ooperation in Gurope, food aid, %ater distribution, and the provision of medical supplies and facilities*, but this is not true for all security challen:es& Cn a post(?$!! environment,

the transaction costs that are saved throu:h 'oint efforts %ill al%ays be compared %ith the costs of dependin: e5clusively on collective(action mechanisms that ultimately may fail ( multilateralism is not free of costs or ris4s& For e5ample, one of the many important lessons of the 2 " CraM %ar, at least for American officials, is that there are no collective(security :uarantees any lon:er, even from traditional allies& 9he 30 +ecurity 2ouncil did not function as a separate entity committed to facilitatin: and coordinatin: diplomatic e5chan:es to%ards a common :ood& 9he 30 functions in a hi:hly competitive environment in %hich traditional po%er politics plays out& Proponents of multilateralism throu:h the 30+2 do not espouse that doctrine in the interest of :lobal securityR their efforts are typically desi:ned to use the institution to limit the capacity of the 3&+& to act unilaterally to protect American interests& 9hat level of competition, itself driven by competin: interpretations of interests, values, and threats, does not lend itself %ell

Nuclear War MICHIGAN 7WS 2013 154/221 to the 4ind of multilateralism its proponents aspire to achieve& Of course, if France shared the same concerns about terrorism, or
if leaders in Paris %ere eMually motivated to address the potential for 7/6 proliferation in and throu:h CraM, the transaction costs incurred by respondin: throu:h the 30 %ould be more acceptable& 1ut as threat perceptions continue to diver:e, the ris4s associated

%ith %aitin: for multilateral consensus are simply too hi:h& 9he comple5 nature of contemporary security threats virtually :uarantees that similar conflicts %ill pla:ue multilateral institutions in the future&

Susta&na3le mult&lateral&sm &s structurall' &mposs&3le an% t(ere are a l&tan' of ma:or alt causes t(e aff can7t o+ercome Hel% et alF 13 /aster of 3niversity 2olle:e and Professor of Politics and Cnternational -elations, at the 3niversity of 6urham, and 6irector of Polity Press and =eneral Gditor of =lobal Policy (6avid, =ridloc4# the :ro%in: brea4do%n of :lobal cooperation, Pro,uest, D$2@$2 !", http#$$search&proMuest&com&pro5y&lib&umich&edu$docvie%$!"DD! D !F* $$ /+ Gconomic and political shifts in lar:e part attributable to the successes of the post(%ar multilateral order are no% amon:st the factors :rindin: that system into :ridloc4& 9he 6oha round of trade ne:otiations is deadloc4ed, despite ei:ht successful multilateral trade rounds before it& 2limate ne:otiators have met for t%o decades %ithout findin: a %ay to stem :lobal emissions& 9he 30 is paraly)ed in the face of :ro%in: insecurities across the %orld, the latest dramatic e5ample bein: +yria& Gach of these phenomena could be treated as if it %as independent, and
an e5planation sou:ht for the peculiarities of its causes& Pet, such a perspective %ould fail to sho% %hat they, alon: %ith numerous other instances of brea4do%n in international ne:otiations, have in common& =lobal cooperation is :ridloc4ed across a ran:e of issue areas& 9he

reasons for this are not the result of any sin:le underlyin: causal structure, but rather of several underlyin: dynamics that %or4 to:ether& =lobal cooperation today is failin: not simply because it is very difficult to solve many :lobal problems ( indeed it is ( but because previous phases of :lobal cooperation have been incredibly successful, producin: unintended conseMuences that have over%helmed the problem(solvin: capacities of the very institutions that created them& Ct is hard to see ho% this situation can be unravelled, :iven failures of contemporary :lobal leadership, the %ea4nesses of 0=Os in convertin: popular campai:ns into institutional chan:e and reform, and the domestic political landscapes of the most po%erful countries & A :olden era of :overned
:lobali)ation Cn order to understand %hy :ridloc4 has come about it is important to understand ho% it %as that the post(+econd 7orld 7ar era facilitated, in many respects, a successful form of A:overned :lobali)ationA that contributed to relative peace and prosperity across the %orld over several decades& 9his period %as mar4ed by peace bet%een the :reat po%ers, althou:h there %ere many pro5y %ars fou:ht out in the :lobal +outh& 9his relative stability created the conditions for %hat no% can be re:arded as an unprecedented period of prosperity that characteri)ed the !?D s on%ard& Althou:h it is by no means the sole cause, the 30 is central to this story, helpin: to create conditions under %hich decoloni)ation and successive %aves of democrati)ation could ta4e root, profoundly alterin: %orld politics& 7hile the economic record of the post%ar years varies by country, many e5perienced si:nificant economic :ro%th and livin: standards rose rapidly across si:nificant parts of the %orld& 1y the late !?B s a variety of Gast Asian countries %ere be:innin: to :ro% at an unprecedented speed, and by the late !?? s countries such as 2hina, Cndia and 1ra)il had :ained si:nificant economic momentum, a process that continues to this day& /ean%hile, the institutionali)ation of international cooperation proceeded at an eMually impressive pace& Cn !? ?, "E inter:overnmental or:ani)ations e5istedR in 2 !!, the number of institutions and their various off(shoots had :ro%n to EF B (3nion of Cnternational Associations 2 !!*& 9here

%as substantial :ro%th in the number of international treaties in force, as %ell as the number of international re:imes, formal and informal & At the same time, ne% 4inds of& Post%ar institutions created the conditions under %hich a multitude of actors could benefit from formin: multinational companies, investin: abroad, developin: :lobal production chains, and en:a:in: %ith a plethora of other social and economic processes associated %ith :lobali)ation & 9hese conditions, combined %ith the e5pansionary lo:ic of capitalism and basic
technolo:ical innovation, chan:ed the nature of the %orld economy, radically increasin: dependence on people and countries from every corner of the %orld& 9his interdependence, in turn, created demand for further institutionali)ation, %hich states see4in: the benefits of cooperation provided, be:innin: the cycle ane%& 9his is not to say that international institutions %ere the only cause of the dynamic form of :lobali)ation e5perienced over the last fe% decades& 2han:es in the nature of :lobal capitalism, includin: brea4throu:hs in transportation and information technolo:y, are obviously critical drivers of interdependence& ;o%ever, all of these chan:es %ere allo%ed to thrive and develop because they too4 place in a relatively open, peaceful, liberal, institutionali)ed %orld order& 1y preventin: 7orld 7ar 9hree and another =reat 6epression, the multilateral order ar:uably did 'ust as much for interdependence as microprocessors or email (see /ueller !?? R OA0eal and -ussett !??E*& 1eyond the special privile:es of the :reat po%ers +elf( reinforcin: interdependence has no% pro:ressed to the point %here it has altered our ability to en:a:e in further :lobal cooperation& 9hat is,

economic and political shifts in lar:e part attributable to the successes of the post(%ar multilateral order are no% amon:st the factors :rindin: that system into :ridloc4& 1ecause of the remar4able success of :lobal cooperation in the post%ar order, human interconnectedness %ei:hs much more heavily on politics than it did in !?@D& 9he need for international cooperation has never been hi:her& Pet the <supply< side of the eMuation, institutionali)ed multilateral cooperation, has stalled& Cn areas such as nuclear proliferation, the e5plosion of small arms sales, terrorism, failed states, :lobal economic imbalances, financial mar4et instability, :lobal poverty and ineMuality, biodiversity losses, %ater deficits and climate chan:e, multilateral and transnational cooperation is no% increasin:ly ineffective or threadbare& =ridloc4 is not uniMue to one issue domain, but appears to be becomin:

Nuclear War MICHIGAN 7WS 2013 1*0/221 a :eneral feature of :lobal :overnance# cooperation seems to be increasin:ly difficult and deficient at precisely the time %hen it is needed most& Ct is possible to identify four reasons for this bloc4a:e, four path%ays to :ridloc4# risin: multipolarity, institutional inertia, harder problems, and institutional fra:mentation& Gach path%ay
can be thou:ht of as a :ro%in: trend that embodies a specific mi5 of causal mechanisms& Gach of these are e5plained briefly belo%& =ro%in: multipolarity& 9he absolute number of states has increased by " percent in the last E years, meanin: that the most basic transaction costs of :lobal :overnance have :ro%n& /ore importantly, the number of states that <matter< on a :iven issue((that is, the states %ithout %hose

cooperation a :lobal problem cannot be adeMuately addressed((has e5panded by similar proportions & At 1retton
7oods in !?@D, the rules of the %orld economy could essentially be %ritten by the 3nited +tates %ith some consultation %ith the 3> and other Guropean allies& Cn the aftermath of the 2 B(2 ? crisis, the =(2 has become the principal forum for :lobal economic mana:ement, not because the established po%ers desired to be more inclusive, but because they could not solve the problem on their o%n& ;o%ever, a conseMuence of this pro:ress is

no% that many more countries, representin: a diverse ran:e of interests, must a:ree in order for :lobal cooperation to occur& Cnstitutional inertia& 9he post%ar order succeeded, in part, because it incentivi)ed :reat po%er involvement in 4ey
institutions& From the 30 +ecurity 2ouncil, to the 1retton 7oods institutions, to the 0on(Proliferation 9reaty, 4ey pillars of the :lobal order e5plicitly :rant special privile:es to the countries that %ere %ealthy and po%erful at the time of their creation& 9his hierarchy %as necessary to secure the participation of the most important countries in :lobal :overnance& 9oday, the :ain from this trade(off has shrun4 %hile the costs have :ro%n& As po%er shifts from 7est to Gast, 0orth to +outh, a broader ran:e of participation is needed on nearly all :lobal issues if they are to be dealt %ith effectively& At the same time, follo%in: decoloni)ation, the end of the 2old 7ar and economic development, the idea that some countries should hold more ri:hts and privile:es than others is increasin:ly (and ri:htly* re:arded as morally ban4rupt& And yet, the architects of the post%ar order did not, in most cases, desi:n institutions that %ould or:anically ad'ust to fluctuations in national po%er& ;arder problems& As independence has deepened,

the types and scope of problems around %hich countries must cooperate has evolved& Problems are both no% more e5tensive, implicatin: a broader ran:e of countries and individuals %ithin countries, and intensive, penetratin: deep into the domestic policy space and daily life& 2onsider the e5ample of trade& For much of the post%ar era, trade ne:otiations focused on reducin: tariff levels on manufactured products traded bet%een industriali)ed countries& 0o%, ho%ever, ne:otiatin: a trade a:reement reMuires also discussin: a host of social, environmental, and cultural sub'ects ( =/Os, intellectual property, health and environmental standards, biodiversity, labour standards((about %hich countries often disa:ree sharply& Cn the area of environmental chan:e a similar set of considerations applies& 9o clean up industrial smo: or address o)one depletion reMuired fairly discrete actions from a small number of top polluters & 1y contrast, the threat of climate chan:e and the efforts to miti:ate it involve nearly all countries of the :lobe& Pet, the diver:ence of voice and interest %ithin both the developed and developin: %orlds, alon: %ith the sheer comple5ity of the incentives needed to achieve a lo% carbon economy, have made a :lobal deal, thus far, impossible (Fal4ner et al& 2 !!R Qictor 2 !!*& Fra:mentation& 9he institution(builders of the !?@ s be:an %ith, essentially, a blan4 slate& 1ut efforts to cooperate internationally today occur in a dense institutional ecosystem shaped by path dependency& 9he e5ponential rise in both multilateral and transnational or:ani)ations has created a more comple5 multilevel and multi( actor system of :lobal :overnance& 7ithin this dense %eb of institutions mandates can conflict, interventions are freMuently uncoordinated, and all too typically scarce resources are sub'ect to intense competition & Cn this conte5t, the proliferation of institutions tends to lead to dysfunctional fra:mentation, reducin: the ability of multilateral institutions to provide public :oods& 7hen fundin: and political %ill are scarce, countries need focal points to :uide policy (>eohane and /artin !??D*, %hich can help define the nature and form of cooperation& Pet, %hen international re:imes overlap, these positive effects are %ea4ened& Fra:mented institutions, in turn, disa::re:ate resources and political %ill, %hile increasin: transaction costs & Cn stressin: four path%ays to :ridloc4 %e emphasi)e the manner in %hich contemporary :lobal :overnance problems build up on each other , althou:h different path%ays can carry more si:nificance in some domains than in others& 9he challen:es no% faced by the multilateral order are substantially different from
those faced by the !?@D victors in the post%ar settlement& 9hey are second(order cooperation problems arisin: from previous phases of success in :lobal coordination& 9o:ether, they no% bloc4 and inhibit problem solvin: and reform at the :lobal level &

Mult&lateral&sm fa&ls no trust or &nternat&onal acceptance Hu)(esF 13 Professor of 2omparative Politics, 2onvenor of the /+c 2omparative Politics (2onflict +tudies*, and 6irector of the 2onflict -esearch =roup at the 6epartment of =overnment at K+G, one of the lar:est political science departments in the 3> (James, -ussia and the +ecession of >osovo# Po%er, 0orms and the Failure of /ultilateralism, Gurope(Asia +tudies, F$F$2 !", http#$$%%%&tandfonline&com$doi$pdf$! &! B $ ?FFB!"F&2 !"&E?2@@B* $$ /+ 9heoretical debates about multilateralism positively 'u5tapose it to unilateralism or bilateralism, because it is seen as a natural ideational fit %ith the :ro%th of :lobal :overnance & 9he ma'or schism on the concept is bet%een normativists %ho emphasise shared values and the realists8 concerns %ith strate:ic interactions and po%er asymmetries& 9he >osovo crisis be:innin: in !??? could be seen as the first ma'or crisis of multilateralism in the international system after the end of the

Nuclear War MICHIGAN 7WS 2013 1*1/221 2old 7ar& Ct %as a crisis about the role and interests of a he:emonic 3+A and a %ea4ened -ussia& As a case, >osovo demonstrates the parado5es and limitations of multilateralism in the field of international security, %hen there are different types and levels of multilateralism interactin:& 9he 3+ and G3 leaderships sa% >osovo as essentially a re:ional problem %hich could be manipulated to re'uvenate and enhance 7estern multilateral cooperation in 0A9O& 9his vie% found support amon: an upper echelon of officials in the 30, surroundin: +ecretary(=eneral >ofi Annan, %hich favoured a multilateral intervention in >osovo as proof of commitment to the developin: norm of ^ri:ht to protect8& -ussia, ho%ever, sa% its multilateral en:a:ement over >osovo as a strate:ic interaction to counterbalance and compensate for its %ea4ness vis(aw(vis 0A9O& 9he multilateral interactions by these three parties appear to have deepened mistrust as the process failed to resolve the final status of >osovo, leadin: to its unilateral declaration of independence in 2 B& 9he case demonstrates the importance of shared interests for successful multilateral interactions& +936CG+ OF
/3K9CKA9G-AKC+/ P-OKCFG-A9G6 C0 9;G !?? s in the aftermath of the fall of communism and the ma'or chan:es in po%er in the international system that accompanied the collapse of the 3++-& 9heoretical debates about multilateralism evolved from concerns %ith the

numbers and natures of ne:otiatin: parties to social constructs such as ideas about shared rules and norms of cooperation, notably reciprocity and le:itimacy & As a concept, multilateralism %as seen as under(theorised in the !?? s but since
then it has developed into a set of broader normative values around the notions of interdependence and :lobal :overnance in a multiplicity of policy fields, from :lobal and re:ional trade a:reements, debt, poverty, climate chan:e and other environmental concerns, to health and security challen:es (2aporaso !??2R -u::ie !??2R 2o5 !??2, !??ER 6iehl !??E*& As a concept it is consistently positively 'u5taposed to unilateralism or bilateralism, because it

is seen as a natural ideational fit %ith the :ro%th of international institutions and other structures and processes post(7orld 7ar CC, %hereas the latter are seen as reflectin: the anarchic and destabilisin: %orld order %hich led to that confla:ration&

Mult&lateral&sm fa&ls to sol+e secur&t' t(reats en#&nF * 3niversity of 0e% ;ampshire, citin: Fran4 ;arvey, 3niversity -esearch Professor of Cnternational -elations, professor in the 6epartment of Political +cience, and the director of the 2entre for Forei:n Policy +tudies at 6alhousie 3niversity (2linton, 1oo4 -evie%# +mo4e and /irrors# =lobali)ed 9errorism and the Cllusion of /ultilateral +ecurity, +a:e Journal, +prin: 2 F, http#$$ic'&sa:epub&com&pro5y&lib&umich&edu$content$!F$!$F?&full&pdf`html* $$ /+ +mo4e and /irrors, a runner(up for the 6onner 1oo4 Pri)e, offers a detailed e5amination of the nature of :lobali)ation and ho% it %ill affect and be affected by terrorism and proliferation of %eapons of mass destruction& 9he author e5amines the nature of multilateralism and the assumption that multilateral strate:ies are inherently better suited to a :lobali)ed %orld& ;e uses specific cases, such as the second CraM %ar, ballistic missile defense (1/6*, and nonproliferation, arms control, and disarmament (0A26*, to develop a cost(benefit analysis of unilateral strate:ies and their multilateral alternatives& Finally, the author e5amines the moral, economic, and political pitfalls of adoptin: multilateralism as an end rather than a means to an end& 9his boo4 offers the reader a perspective that runs counter to the prevailin: political %isdom that multilateralism is a more efficient and beneficial strate:y in an era of :lobali)ation and asymmetric security threats& +mo4e and /irrors describes :lobali)ation as increasin: both the probability and the seriousness of asymmetric security threats&
=lobali)ation decreases the importance of vertical proliferation (the increase in the number of %eapons of mass destruction possessed by a state that already has them* and increases the threat of hori)ontal proliferation (the increase in the number of states %ho possess %eapons of mass destruction*& ;arvey outlines the conventional political %isdom that in the era of :lobali)ation, unilateral forei:n policy must and %ill :ive %ay to multilateral alternatives& /ultilateral initiatives have a lon: history of failure, and unilateral initiatives should not be so easily

discarded until multilateral alternatives can demonstrate some record of :reater benefits achieved %ith fe%er resources& ;ori)ontal proliferation has led to more states (as %ell as nonstate actors* that are %illin: to defy international authority, and this environment places pressure on states to re'ect international cooperation or protection and instead develop a competent unilateral security policy& +tates that are %illin: and able to protect themselves %ill be more secure in an era of :lobali)ation than states that choose or are forced to rely on multilateral security policies& 9he author Muestions the assumption that multilateral initiatives should be the default settin: for states to develop security strate:ies& ;arvey describes a unilateral(multilateral continuum alon: %hich any forei:n policy can be placed& /ultilateralism is simply the result of one state8s values and :oals overlappin: %ith another8s& 9ryin: to ad'ust national priorities so that they become multilateral simply leads to countries ma4in: decisions that are not in the best interests of its citi)ens & An overreliance on multilateralism can cause a state to turn its national security over to another state that is ma4in: its o%n unilateral choices and then forcin: them on others by %ithholdin: approval of a multilateral security policy& 9%o states cannot develop a useful %or4in: relationship if their values and$or prioritiesJas applied to the conte5t of the allianceJdo not match& 7hat defines an international alliance is :ive and ta4eR if the value of %hat is :iven does not match the value of %hat is ta4en, then the alliance is not beneficial and should be abandoned& /ultilateralism cannot be considered an end in and of itselfR rather, it is a means to a specific conte5t(defined end& As such, it must be open to assessment via cost(benefit

Nuclear War MICHIGAN 7WS 2013 1*2/221 analysis& ;arvey uses the proposed 3&+& 1/6 pro:ram as a case study to posit that the costs and benefits of such unilateral security pro:rams are more advanta:eous than are the costs and benefits of multilateral pro:rams desi:ned to accomplish the same :oal& ;arvey offers in(depth analysis of the 1/6 pro:ram, both technolo:ically and politically& ;e
outlines the costs and benefits of a 3&+& 1/6 pro:ram and develops counterpoints to those %ho critici)e the pro:ram as ineffective, too e5pensive, or detrimental to international alliances& ;e offers harsh criticism of those %ho are Muic4 to attac4 1/6 as costly and destabili)in: but are not %illin: to apply those same standards to multilateral alternatives& ;arvey closely e5amines the main multilateral alternative to 1/6,

%hich is 0A26& ;arvey outlines the successes and failures of such initiatives& ;e concludes that the problems %ith 1/6, thou:h si:nificant, are technolo:ical in nature and have a fair probability of bein: overcome, %hereas the problems %ith alternative 0A26 security measures are Mualitative in nature and have no reasonable probability of ever %or4in: at all& ;arvey also develops a critiMue of 2anadian forei:n policy, %hose stron: multilateral emphasis offers a star4 contrast to the 3&+& preference for unilateral initiatives& 2anada8s reliance on multilateralism as a :oal rather than as a tool has led it to ma4e a series of inconsistent and illo:ical forei:n policy decisions & 2anada has placed itself on the morally indefensible side of several
international issues, and in the process, it has be:un to alienate its chief allies, primarily the 3nited +tates& 2anada8s :oal of obtainin: distinction in the international community has led it into the trap of :ivin: a%ay more than it has received and has left its citi)ens %orse off than if it had ta4en principled Jthou:h perhaps unpopularJstances on %orld issues& ;arvey8s ar:uments about the moral pitfalls of multilateralism are developed from a basic point that parents and primary schoolteachers have been ma4in: for :enerations# A correct course of action does not reMuire ma'ority or even plurality assent, and an incorrect course of action does not become correct because of %idespread a:reement&

Mult&lateral&sm &s structurall' &ncapa3le of confl&ct pre+ent&on Mnoo#&n%F 3 leadin: e5pert in the field of conflict resolution (-obert, +9-A9G=C2 1A--CG-+ 9O 6C+P39G -G+OK39CO0# A 2O/PA-C+O0 OF 1CKA9G-AK A06 /3K9CKA9G-AK 0G=O9CA9CO0+, ;arvard 0e:otiation Ka% -evie%, +prin: 2 ", http#$$%%%&hnlr&or:$%p( content$uploads$2 !2$ @$+9-A9G=C2L1A--CG-+L9OL6C+P39GL-G+OK39CO0LAL2O/PA-C+O0LOFL 1CKA9G-AKLA06L/3K9CKA9G&doc* $$ /+ ne:otiations so often fail even %hen there are possible resolutions that %ould serve disputants better than protracted stru::leH And %hy, %hen resolutions are achieved, are they so often sub(optimal for the parties, or achieved only after heavy and avoidable costsH 9hese Muestions have intri:ued me for a number of
C& Cntroduction 7hy do years& +everal years a:o C %rote an article called 7hy 0e:otiations Fail# An G5ploration of 1arriers to the -esolution of 2onflict! and later, %ith the help of collea:ues at the +tanford 2enter on 2onflict 0e:otiation, C edited and %rote the

strate:ic, psycholo:ical and institutional barriers that often led to bar:ainin: failures& C have ta4en the opportunity of preparin: this article to be:in to thin4 throu:h and compare the barriers to the ne:otiated resolut&on of confl&ct &n bilateral and mult&lateral ne)ot&at&ons& For this initial foray, C %ill primarily focus on %hat C have previously called strate:ic barriers((those that arise from the efforts of rational bar:ainers to ma5imi)e individual returns, and may preclude the achievement of the :reatest possible ^:ains in trade^ at the lo%est .2 cost& Cn other %ords, strate:ic barriers are those that can cause rational, self(interested disputants to act in a manner that proves to be both individually and collectively disadvanta:eous& C enter the multiparty %orld of strate:ic interaction %ith some trepidation& 9o be:in %ith, the most conspicuous body of relevant theoretical scholarship is :ame theory, %hich e5plores issues of strate:ic
introduction to a volume called 1arriers 9o 2onflict -esolutions&2 9hese %or4s on barriers e5plored from a variety of disciplinary perspectives the interaction bet%een rational, self(interested actors& 7hile su::estive, it is also limitin:& 9he a5iomatic approach of :ame theoretical %or4 on n(person :ames is mathematically dauntin:, has restricted descriptive po%er, and ma4es no claims at offerin: po%erful prescriptive advice for ne:otiators&" Cndeed, as Anatol -apoport pointed out over thirty years a:o, :ame theoretical analysis of n(person :ames directs its main thrust to :ames in characteristic function form, %hich operate at a level of abstraction that does not consider the strate:ies available to the players&@ 0or is there very much theoretical %or4 to build on outside of :ame theory& Cndeed, in !??@, 7illiam Zartman claimed, ^\c]urrently no conceptual %or4 addresses the vast area of multilateral ne:otiations & & & & Cmplicitly or e5plicitly all ne:otiation theory addresses bi(lateral ne:otiations, but the comple5ity of multilateral ne:otiations remains untreated&D Zartman8s claim stri4es me as an e5a::eration& Cn fact, my o%n thin4in: in these matters has been substantially promoted by the important %or4 of ;o%ard -aiffa and James +ebenius& 9%enty years a:o, in his seminal boo4, 9he Art and +cience of 0e:otiation, ;o%ard -aiffa %arned, \t]here is a vast difference bet%een conflicts involvin: t%o disputants and those involvin: more than t%o disputants&F And even +ebenius, %ho has in my vie% made the most important contributions to our 4no%led:e of multiparty ne:otiation, ac4no%led:es that the clearest and most po%erful advances in theory have been %ithin or mainly inspired by the bi(lateral or t%o(party case&E Finally, %hile much of my o%n scholarship has been centrally concerned %ith ne:otiations and dispute resolution, nearly all of it has focused on t%o(party cases& Garly in my academic career, C became interested in ho% the formal le:al system acts as a bac4drop for ." out(of(court ne:otiations(( %hat C called ^bar:ainin: in the shado% of the la%&^ 9he conte5t in %hich C e5plored this issue %as divorce, %hich involves bar:ainin: bet%een t%o spouses %ho may be represented by la%yers&B +ome years later C %rote, to:ether %ith Gleanor /accoby, a distin:uished developmental psycholo:ist, a boo4 about ho% divorcin: parents resolved custody issues& 6ividin: the 2hild? is a lon:itudinal, empirical study that e5plored ho% some !! divorcin: families resolved custody issues& Once a:ain, the focus %as bilateral ne:otiations& +imilarly, my %or4 on barriers primarily addressed, implicitly if not e5plicitly, bilateral ne:otiations& /y most recent boo4, 1eyond 7innin:,! %as aimed at helpin: la%yers and their clients ne:otiate both deals and disputes more effectively& 7ith the e5ception of one chapter dealin: %ith multiparty le:al disputes, this boo4 primarily analy)es le:al ne:otiations in %hich t%o individual clients each hire an attorney, thereby creatin: a four(person system %ith la%yers in the middle& 9his four(person structure allo%s the analysis to be simple and clear, but the boo4 ac4no%led:es that reality is rarely so 4ind and that many le:al disputes and deals involve not t%o parties, but several((consider ban4ruptcy proceedin:s, environmental disputes, or many torts cases in %hich a sin:le plaintiff may sue several defendants, or multiple plaintiffs brin: suit claimin: that a product is defective&!! 9his article is or:ani)ed as follo%s& 6ra%in: on my previous %or4, Part CC analy)es strate:ic barriers in the conte5t of the t%o(party ne:otiations& C be:in %ith the case of a buyer and seller simply ne:otiatin: over price(( distributive bar:ainin:& C ne5t turn to multi(issue t%o(person bar:ainin: situations %here there are value(creatin: possibilities& Part CCC represents an initial foray into the multiparty %orld& C su::est that the Pareto(criterion may not provide an appropriate standard to evaluate issues of efficiency in multiparty

A reMuirement of unanimity in multilateral ne:otiation , ho%ever, creates potential holdout problems that may pose severe strate:ic barriers to resolution& 9hese problems can be miti:ated if the consent of less than all the parties can permit action& 1ut other problems may arise& Cf coalitions of less than all are able to chan:e the status Muo, this necessarily means that a party left out of a coalition may potentially be made %orse off& A variety of procedural rules may permit decision(ma4in: %ithout unanimity in multiparty ne:otiations& /a'ority votin: is but one of many possible mechanisms to allocate
bar:ainin:& Cn a t%o(party case, any ne:otiated deal presumably better serves the parties than does the status Muo& 9he same could be said in a multiparty ne:otiation, but only if the consent of every party .@ %ere necessary& decision(ma4in: authority& 9he outcome of any multilateral ne:otiation can be profoundly affected by these procedural rules and various decisions concernin: a:enda& Part CQ briefly e5plores the application of an unusual procedural rule((the sufficient consensus standard((that %as employed in the multiparty constitutional ne:otiations in +outh Africa and in 0orthern Creland& CC& +trate:ic 1arriers in 9%o(Party 0e:otiations 1eyond 7innin: su::ests that ne:otiation reMuires the

the primary strate:ic barrier relates to the first tension bet%een the desire for distributive :ain((:ettin: a bi::er slice of the pie((and the opportunity for 'oint :ains((findin: %ays to ma4e the pie bi::er & 3nderstandin: this tension, %hich also e5ists in multilateral ne:otiations, is a necessary foundation for all that follo%s& C be:in %ith the case %here there are no value(creatin: opportunities at all((a case of purely distributive bar:ainin: bet%een t%o parties
mana:ement of three tensions inherent in ne:otiation# the tension bet%een creatin: and distributin: valueR the tension bet%een empathy and assertivenessR and the tension bet%een principals and a:ents&!2 Cn t%o(party ne:otiations, ne:otiatin: over a fi5ed pie& C then move on to t%o(party ne:otiations involvin: multiple issues %here there are value(creatin: opportunities& A& 6istributive 1ar:ainin:# 9%o Parties, One Cssue Our analysis of strate:ic barriers be:ins %ith a bilateral ne:otiation that essentially involves distributin: value& Assume t%o individuals((1uyer and +eller((must ne:otiate the price of a used automobile& 9o simplify the matter, let us assume these parties are concerned about only this deal, and that there are no lin4a:es to similar problems or issues of repetitive play& .D 0e:otiation analysis su::ests that each party needs to determine his 1A90A (1est Alternative 9o a 0e:otiated A:reement*&!" 9he 1A90A indicates %hat that ne:otiator can do a%ay from the table if no deal is reached& 9he 1A90A must be translated into a reservation value((the amount at %hich the bar:ainer is indifferent bet%een reachin: a deal and %al4in: a%ay to his 1A90A& Cn our e5ample, C %ill assume that +eller8s 1A90A is to sell his car to a dealer, %ho has offered him [E, & C %ill assume that this is +eller8s reservation value as %ell& Ket us assume that 1uyer8s 1A90A is to buy a some%hat ne%er, used car from a dealer %ith sli:htly lo%er milea:e for [!!,D & 1uyer translates this into a reservation value of [?, for the car that +eller is offerin:& On these facts the ZOPA (Zone Of Possible A:reement*((the bar:ainin: ran:e created by the t%o reservation values((lies bet%een [E, and [?, & At sta4e in this ne:otiation is ho% the surplus of [2, %ill be divided& 1oth 1uyer and +eller are made better off by any transaction %ith a price any%here in the bar:ainin: ran:e& As such, any deal %ithin the ZOPA is Pareto(superior to no deal at all& A sale for any price bet%een [E, and [?, is Pareto(efficient, and other thin:s bein: eMual, 1uyer %ould obviously prefer to pay less and +eller %ould prefer to receive more& 0ote that this is not a )ero( sum :ame because both players %ould prefer to ne:otiate a deal %ithin the ZOPA than to have no deal at all& \7]hen bar:ainin:, buyer and seller may have diver:ent interests %ith respect to price, but both may prefer to reach some a:reement&!@

9he desire for distributive :ain may lead to a bar:ainin: failure in %hich the parties do not reach a deal,

Nuclear War MICHIGAN 7WS 2013 1*3/221 not%ithstandin: the ZOPA, because each is see4in: to ma5imi)e his o%n return & 9%o factors help e5plain this possibility# information asymmetries
and strate:ic behavior& Cn most ne:otiations, each party has at least some material information that the other party does not have& One potential information asymmetry is the condition or the Muality of the :oods to be traded& 9he seller typically 4no%s far more about the Muality of %hat is bein: sold than the buyer& Ct is %ell established that information .F asymmetries about Muality, the lemons problem, can also lead to non(Pareto outcomes&!D 9he more common asymmetry concerns reservation values& 1uyers and sellers usually do not 4no% each other8s bottom line& 1uyer, for e5ample, may 4no% neither the amount a dealer %ould pay for the car, nor ho% ea:er +eller is to :et rid of it& +eller may not 4no% 1uyer8s alternatives or ho% badly 1uyer %ants this particular car& 0e:otiators rarely reveal honestly their reservation value& Cnformation asymmetries of this sort open opportunities for strate:ic opportunism& Cndeed, the essence of distributive bar:ainin: involves the attempt on the part of ne:otiators to shape each other8s perceptions of %hat is possible& 7hen decidin: %hat action to ta4e, each player must consider the other8s possible reaction, and vice versa& 9his is the essence of strate:ic interdependence& Gach ne:otiator is constantly assessin: %hat the other side mi:ht eventually be %illin: to do and ho% far they mi:ht :o& 0e:otiators employ a variety of tactics to influence the other side8s perceptions of %hat is possible((some misleadin:, some outri:ht dishonest& As a conseMuence, the parties mi:ht never discover that there is a ZOPA because, aspirin: to drive a hard bar:ain, each mi:ht ma4e e5treme offers from %hich he recedes very slo%ly& 9ypically, neither ne:otiator 4no%s ho% far it mi:ht be possible to push the other side& As a conseMuence, the drive for distributive advanta:e may at times be a barrier to a deal bein: made or a dispute bein: settled& Gven if a sale is consummated (or the la%suit settled*, the transaction costs of reachin: a:reement mi:ht be much hi:her than necessary& 7hat if 1uyer and +eller someho% 4no% each other8s reservation valueH Cn this case, an obvious focal point for a deal %ould be to divide the surplus in half& 7hile splittin: the surplus may be a common result %here there is full information, strate:ic opportunism and the drive for distributive :ain can lead to ne:otiation failures& Gven if the parties 4no% (or can :uess* each other8s reservation price, there still can be no deal if they disa:ree about ho% the surplus should be divided& Gach mi:ht attempt to shape each other8s perceptions of ho% firmly they %ill insist on a particular share of a 4no%n surplus& One or both mi:ht try to persuade the other that he is committed to %al4in: a%ay from a beneficial deal rather than accept less than the lion8s share of the surplus& 3sin: a variety of commitment .E strate:ies, a party can ma4e a ta4e(it(or(leave(it offer that %ould :ive that party the lion8s share of the surplus&!F +eller mi:ht :o so far, for e5ample, as to :ive a po%er of attorney to an a:ent to sell only at a hi:h price and then leave to%n to ma4e that claim credible& 9%o mi:ht play that :ame and a deadloc4 could result# Players in a bar:ainin: :ame are in an a%4%ard position& 9hey %ant to ma4e the most favorable a:reement that they can, %hile avoidin: the ris4 of ma4in: no a:reement at allR and, to certain e5tent, these :oals are contradictory& Cf one party indicates a %illin:ness to settle for any terms, even if the :ain is only mar:inal, he or she %ill li4ely arrive at an a:reement, but not a very attractive one& On the other hand, if he ta4es a hard position and stic4s to it, he is li4ely to reach a favorable a:reement if he reaches any a:reement at all((but he stands a :ood chance of bein: left out in the cold&!E Cn sum, hard(bar:ainin: tactics that may be rational for self(interested parties concerned %ith ma5imi)in: the si)e of their o%n slice of the pie can sometimes lead to inefficient outcomes& 9hose sub'ected to such tactics often respond in 4ind, and the net result is, at best, additional costs of the dispute resolution process and, at %orst, failure to consummate a mutually beneficial a:reement& 1& An Aside on the Kimits of =ame 9heoretical Analysis of 1ar:ainin: Our car e5ample :enerali)es to a very common type of economic transaction, one that economists have characteri)ed as a bar:ainin: :ame& 9he buyer %ould prefer to pay lessR the seller %ould prefer to .B receive moreR but both %ould prefer any deal %ithin a )one created by the their no(deal alternatives to no resolution at all& Accordin: to one very prominent :ame theorist, ho%ever, ^bar:ainin: is an e5tremely difficult topic because in many settin:s it runs ri:ht up a:ainst the thin:s :ame theory is not so :ood at&^!B Ct is helpful to e5plain %hat these limitations are& First, because :ame theory is a branch of mathematics, it reMuires the definition of very precise protocols or rules of the :ame& Cn our e5ample, and in most real %orld bar:ainin: situations, there are no rules set out in advance specifyin: %ho must ma4e the first offer, %hether offers can be made simultaneously, ho% many rounds of bar:ainin: are permitted, or %hen the ne:otiation ends& Cndeed, :ame theoretical analysis sho%s 'ust ho% sensitive the outcome of any bar:ainin: :ame is to various protocols& 2onsider the follo%in: very simple bar:ainin: :ame %ith the follo%in: protocol& Only one round of bar:ainin: is permitted& 1oth parties 4no% each other8s reservation value& One player :ets to ma4e a sin:le ta4e(it(or(leave(it offer& Cf the other player accepts, the transaction is consummated at this price& Cf not, the :ame ends and each player receives his no(deal alternative& Cf the protocol specifies the buyer :ets to ma4e the sin:le ta4e(it(or(leave(it offer, %e %ould e5pect the buyer to capture almost the entire surplus by offerin: only a tiny amount above [E, & 3nder the protocol, since the seller %ould be better off acceptin: this price than sellin: to a dealer, the buyer %ould :et a very :ood deal& On the other hand, if the protocol provided that the seller could ma4e a ta4e(it(or(leave(it offer, the seller mi:ht establish a price of nearly [?, and the seller %ould essentially capture the entire surplus& 0e:otiation over price in the real %orld typically does not involve such simple and %ell(defined procedures that are a:reed upon in advance& Cnstead, players can usually ma4e so many possible moves and counter(moves that the :ame is much too rich for :ame theoretic techniMues, %hich reMuire clear and distinct ^rules of the :ame&8!? 9his is not to say that :ame theory provides no useful insi:hts into bar:ainin:& On the contrary, non(cooperative :ame theory permits modelin: and analysis of ho% different sorts of rules of the :ame affect strate:ic interaction bet%een rational actors& A second common problem of :ame theoretic analysis is that there are often many eMuilibria and no %ay to choose amon: them& .? 9his problem can also be illustrated %ith a simple one(round bar:ainin: model %ith one round in %hich the buyer and seller simultaneously name a price %ithout any prior 4no%led:e of the amount specified by the other side& 9he rules of the :ame or protocol further provide that if the offers match, the car is sold at that priceR if the buyer8s price is hi:her than the seller8s price, the transaction %ill occur at the avera:e of the t%o pricesR and if the seller8s price is hi:her than the buyer8s price, there %ill be no deal& Cn this :ame, any price bet%een [E, and [?, represents a 0ash GMuilibrium if named by both parties& Cf the named prices are the same, neither player has any incentive to chan:e his price& 9o see this, assume both players named [E,2D & Cf the seller 4ne% this, he %ould lose the sale %ith a hi:her price and receive less %ith a lo%er named price& Analo:ously, the buyer %ould lose the transaction %ith a lo%er price, and %ould pay more %ith a hi:her named price& Cn short, once each named [E,2D , neither %ould have any incentive to chan:e the named amount& 9he parado5 is that this same reasonin: applies to any price in the bar:ainin: ran:e if named by both players& =ame theory is of no help in sortin: out %hether any one \of these 0ash eMuilibria] is the ^solution8 and, if one is, %hich one is&2 Cndeed, as 6avid >reps has emphasi)ed, simultaneous(offer bar:ainin: is only one conte5t %here there is this problem of too many eMuilibria and too little :uidance for choosin: amon: them&2! 9o escape the problem of multiple eMuilibriums, John 0ash approached the bar:ainin: problem in an a5iomatic %ay((i&e&, he set out a series of characteristics that any solution should have& 1ased on these a5ioms he su::ested an Arbitration +cheme in %hich parties %ould a:ree to have an arbitrator divide the surplus in a %ay that ma5imi)ed the product of the player8s utilities, ta4in: the threat points (the 1A90A8s* into account&22 0eedless to say, it is not clear ho% an arbitrator could e5pect to learn the players8 respective utilities, nor %hy parties to a ne:otiation %ould decide to leave their fate to an arbitrator& Ariel -ubinstein brilliantly modeled alternatin:(offer bar:ainin: in a %ay that produced a sin:le eMuilibrium&2" ;is :ame %or4s as follo%s& 9here are t%o players and each can ma4e one offer at a time& .! Player 1 has a choice of either acceptin: player A8s offer or respondin: %ith an offer of his o%n& A 4ey element of this :ame is that the surplus that the players are dividin: diminishes over time and each player has a discount rate& 9he outcome of this :ame is that the first player on the first round offers a tiny bit more than D I and the second player a:rees immediately& 9he -ubinstein result holds if instead of usin: discount rates, each party bears transaction costs each time he ma4es an offer& A nice feature of this model is that if the players have the same time preferences or the same transaction costs, they %ill essentially divide the surplus evenly((an outcome that matches our intuition& On the other hand, if there are substantial differences, it can have very dramatic effects on the eMuilibrium((effects %ith much less intuitive appeal&2@ /ore fundamentally, the e5tension of the -ubinstein model to three or more players no lon:er has a sin:le, uniMue eMuilibrium&2D A third limitation of :ame theoretical analysis should also be emphasi)ed& =ame theory provides no theory about %here the rules of the :ame come from& Cn particular, as C %ill develop in the ne5t section, because an important element of ne:otiation often involves chan:in: the :ame, by addin: parties, by addin: issues, or by strate:ically chan:in: procedures, formal :ame theoretical analysis cannot help us understand %hy a party chan:es the rules or players or issues %hen he did& Cndeed, an important part of many multiparty ne:otiations concerns ne:otiatin: the rules and procedures& As a final point, C %ould li4e to su::est that :ame theory is not especially po%erful either as a descriptive theory (predictin: ho% people actually behave* or as a prescriptive theory (su::estin: ho% rational people should best ne:otiate in a %orld %here many people do not behave in %ays consistent %ith the theory*& 9hese points are best illustrated by considerin: the vast e5perimental literature relatin: to the ultimatum :ame, the structure of %hich is a4in to the seMuential one(round bar:ainin: :ame described above& 9hese e5periments su::est that, economic theory not%ithstandin:, a party %ith full information %ill often refuse to accept a final offer %ithin the ZOPA if the resultin: division of the surplus offends his sense of fairness& .!! Cn the ^ultimatum :ame^ one player is :iven the ri:ht to divide a fi5ed sum of money, say [! , and then :ive an ultimatum to the second player# either accept the share offered, in %hich case the [! is divided accordin: to the offer, or re'ect the division, in %hich case neither player receives anythin:& 9his is a purely distributive :ame, %here a surplus of [! is bein: divided into t%o 4no%n shares set by the first player& =ame theory su::ests that a rational offeree %ould prefer a pittance((say a penny((to receivin: nothin:, even if the offeror is :ettin: [?&??& Cn other %ords, the offeree8s reservation value should be epsilon((a small amount :reater than )ero& And yet the evidence su::ests that %hen the first player divides the surplus in a very one(sided %ay, many offerees %ill re'ect the offer and ta4e nothin: in order to deprive the offeror of the lion8s share& 7here there is full information and the issue of distribution looms lar:e, a party8s sense of fairness can lead to %hat economists %ould call Pareto(inefficient outcomes& Cn short, as a descriptive matter, the :ame theoretical model of this simple :ame does not capture the behavior of many individuals&2F Cf this is so, there are important implications for prescriptive theory, or %hat ;o%ard -aiffa su::ests is the appropriate descriptive(prescriptive stance of someone :ivin: advice to real %orld ne:otiators& -aiffa su::ests that a :ood prescriptive theory should be based on ho% one believes the ne:otiatin: counterpart actually behaves& 9he best prescriptive advice to someone %ho :ets to divide the pie in the ultimatum :ame is that he %ill probably ma5imi)e his return by dividin: the [! to offer the other side somethin: in the [@ ran:e((far more than a penny& 7hile some may turn do%n anythin: other than an even split, most %ill accept an uneven split so lon: as its not too e5treme&2E 2& 9%o Parties, +everal Cssues# 9he 9ension 1et%een 2reatin: and 6istributin: Qalue /ost ne:otiations involve more than dividin: a fi5ed pie((they also offer opportunities for creatin: value and thereby e5pandin: the pie& 7hat do C mean by creatin: valueH C thin4 it is best defined in terms of Pareto(efficiency& An outcome is said to be Pareto(efficient or Pareto(optimal if one party can be made better off only by ma4in: .!2 the other party %orse off& Gconomics teaches that there is a Pareto frontier consistin: of various Pareto(optimal outcomes that have different distributive conseMuences for the parties&2B 1y definition, %henever there is a ne:otiated a:reement in a t%o(party ne:otiation both parties must believe that a ne:otiated outcome leaves them at least as %ell off as they %ould have been if there %ere no a:reement& 9herefore, in a fi5ed, positive sum :ame, any resolution is Pareto(efficient in comparison to no deal at all& On the other hand, in ne:otiations %here it is possible to create value, parties may reach ne:otiated outcomes that are not Pareto(efficient if there is some other ne:otiated outcome available that mi:ht ma4e one party better off %ithout harmin: the other& 9his notion of creatin: value builds on a lon:(established tradition that ne:otiation literature refers to as the ^inte:rative^ possibilities present in some ne:otiations&2? 1efore describin: %hy strate:ic interaction may prevent ne:otiators from reachin: resolutions that are Pareto(efficient, one should first understand the sources of value and their economic underpinnin:s& Cn my vie%, there are four sources of value throu:h ne:otiation# differences bet%een the partiesR non(competitive similaritiesR economies of scale and scopeR and opportunities for reducin: transaction costs and dampenin: economic opportunism& 9he notion that differences can create value is counterintuitive to many ne:otiators, %ho believe they can reach a:reement only by findin: common :round& 1ut the truth is that differences are often more useful than similarities in helpin: parties reach a deal& 6ifferences set the sta:e for possible :ains throu:h trade, and it is throu:h trade that value is most commonly created& 9here are five types of differences that are all potential sources of value creation# different resourcesR different relative valuationsR different forecastsR different ris4 preferencesR and different time preferences& 9hrou:h the ne:otiation process, to the e5tent that parties discover that such differences e5ist, they can structure transactions that create value by tradin: on %hat amounts to differences in relative valuation& .!" A second source of value is non(competitive similarities& Cn these instances, one person8s :ain does not mean the other person8s loss& For e5ample, ne:otiators often have a shared interest in a productive, cordial %or4in: relationship& 1oth :ain to the e5tent that they can improve their relationship& Ki4e%ise, parents share an interest in the %ell(bein: of their children& Cf a child flourishes, both parents derive satisfaction& 9hus, even for divorcin: parents, arran:ements that benefit a child create 'oint :ains for both adults& A third source of value relates to economies of scale and scope& 9%o firms that each have a small plant may be able to reduce the unit cost of production by havin: a 'oint venture that builds one lar:e production facility& 2reatin: or preservin: scale economies is a rich source of value creation& +imilarly, economies of scope can also create value& 9hese arise %hen more than one :ood or service can be produced usin: the same basic resources, thus reducin: the costs of each& 0e:otiators can also create value by reducin: the transaction costs of reachin: an a:reement and by dampenin: strate:ic opportunism& 9his can occur in several %ays# by ma4in: the process of ne:otiation less time(consumin: and costlyR by reducin: the ris4s that the parties %ill deceive each otherR and by better ali:nin: future incentives& 7hat, then, is the tension bet%een creatin: and distributin: value in a ne:otiationH Ct is a tension that, if mana:ed badly, %ill lead to outcomes that fail to fully e5ploit the value creatin: possibilities& Cnformation drives this tension& 7ithout sharin: information, ne:otiators find it difficult to identify trades that mi:ht create value and potentially ma4e both parties better off& 3nreciprocated openness, ho%ever, can be e5ploited& 6isclosin: one8s preferences, resources, interests, and alternatives can help to create value, but can pose a :rave ris4 %ith respect to distributive issues& 0e:otiators are constantly cau:ht bet%een these competin: strate:ic demands& Cn the end, an individual ne:otiator is typically concerned first %ith the si)e of her slice and only secondarily %ith the si)e of the pie as a %hole& Cndeed, a ne:otiator %ho can easily claim a lar:e share of a small pie may %ind up %ith more to eat than one %ho ba4es a much bi::er pie but ends up %ith only a sliver& A s4illful ne:otiator moves nimbly bet%een ima:inative strate:ies to enlar:e the pie and conservative strate:ies to secure an ample slice no matter %hat si)e the final pie turns out to be& 6ifficulties arise, ho%ever, because many ne:otiators do not mana:e this tension %ell and, as a conseMuence of .!@ focusin: primarily on the distributive dimension of bar:ainin:, fail to sei)e value(creatin: opportunities& Cn short, accurate information about each ne:otiator8s :oals, priorities, preferences, resources, and opportunities is essential to reach a:reements that offer optimal ^:ain from trade^((a:reements tailored to ta4e full advanta:e of the sources of value outlined above& At the same time, ho%ever, parties have a clear incentive to conceal their interests and priorities, or even mislead the other side about them& 1y fei:nin: attachment to %hatever resources they are ready to :ive up in trade and fei:nin: relative indifference to %hatever resources they see4 to :ain %hile concealin: opportunities for utili)ation of these resources, each party see4s to %in the best possible terms of trade for itself& Cn other %ords, total fran4ness and ^full disclosure^((or simply :reater fran4ness and fuller disclosure than practiced by the other side of the ne:otiation((leave one side vulnerable in the distributive aspect of bar:ainin:& Accordin:ly, the sharp bar:ainer is tempted, and may rationally deem it advanta:eous, to practice secrecy and deception& Once a:ain, ho%ever, these tactics can lead to unnecessary deadloc4s and costly delays or, more fundamentally, failures to discover the most efficient trades or outcomes&" . . . . 9his short summary su::ests the underlyin: reasons that strate:ic interaction((the self(conscious rational behavior of individual ne:otiators(( may act as a barrier to Pareto(efficient outcomes& Cn simple ne:otiations that only implicate distributive issues, the result may be no a:reement under circumstances %here both parties could be made better off by one or more possible a:reements& 7here a ne:otiation involves several dimensions, there are often inte:rative possibilities((opportunities to ma4e the pie bi::er& ;ere, the problem can be t%o(fold& Cn some instances, the focus on distributive :ain may result in no deal or resolution at all&

analysis of bilateral ne:otiations e5plains %hy a ne:otiator8s pursuit of distributive :ain can often lead to ne:otiation failures& Gven thou:h there are possible a:reements that %ould better serve the parties, a:reement may not be reached at all, or even if resolution .!D is achieved, may not satisfy the economist8s Pareto(criterion of efficiency& 9hese same strate:ic problems((and the underlyin: tension bet%een creatin: and claimin: value((e5ist in multiparty ne:otiations as %ell& 1ut in this section, C %ould li4e to e5plore several additional strate:ic complications that may act as barriers in the multiparty conte5t alone& 9he first problem concerns the meanin: of creatin: value and efficiency in the multiparty conte5t& Ki4e other ne:otiation analysts, in bilateral ne:otiations C define creatin: value in terms of Pareto(efficiency& 9his measure does not reMuire inter(personal utility comparisons& Ct simply su::ests that efficiency is improved %henever there is an alternative resolution that either ma4es both parties better off or ma4es one party better off %hen the other party is no %orse off& An important feature of bilateral ne:otiation is that %henever the parties have a:reed to an outcome, that outcome can be presumed to better serve the interests of each party than the status Muo((other%ise there %ould have been no a:reement& /easurin: value is much less strai:htfor%ard in a multiparty conte5t& Parado5ically, the reMuirement of Pareto(efficiency may be very inefficient& 9he Pareto(criterion reMuires that every party to a ne:otiation have veto po%er over the deal & Cf there are ten parties to a ne:otiation, the only %ay %e can 4no% that a ne:otiated a:reement is Pareto(superior to the status Muo is if all ten parties a:ree to ma4e the deal& Cn other %ords, Pareto(efficiency in a multiparty ne:otiation reMuires unanimity& 3nfortunately, a unanimity rule creates the strate:ic ris4 of holdout problems&
/ore commonly, it may lead to a ne:otiated outcome that is not Pareto(optimal& CCC& /ultiparty 0e:otiations /y

Nuclear War MICHIGAN 7WS 2013 1*6/221 Assume, for the moment, that the ZOPA in a multiparty conte5t includes many possible deals %ith different distributive implications, all of %hich ma4e all ten ne:otiators better off than the status Muo& 7ith a unanimity rule, the distributive aspects of multiparty bar:ainin: can become e5tremely difficult and time consumin: to mana:e& 7henever nine out of ten ne:otiators have a:reed to a particular deal, the tenth person may credibly threaten to veto that deal because he %ants a deal that :ives him a lar:er share of the pie& Obviously more than one ne:otiator can play this :ame, and as a conseMuence, the transaction costs of attemptin: to achieve unanimous
a:reement can be very hi:h and ne:otiations can brea4 do%n& A fe% years bac4, C sa% an e5ample of this& A 2ambrid:e, /assachusetts nei:hborhood %as :iven the opportunity to have its electrical %ires put under:round& 9he city %ould provide a partial subsidy, but the ten nei:hbors all had to consent to an allocation of .!F the remainin: costs for installin: the ne% main %ire& 7hatever the allocation, each nei:hbor %ould also need to pay his o%n hoo4(up costs for brin:in: the po%er from the ne% under:round %ire to his house& /ost nei:hbors Muic4ly a:reed to allocate the cost of the main %ire based on fronta:e feet of each lot& 1ut one nei:hbor, /r& Jones, %hose house %as set farther bac4 from the street, ob'ected& ;e ar:ued that since his connection cost to a ne% under:round %ire %ould be hi:her, he should pay a smaller share of the 'oint costs& 9%o other nei:hbors sa% Jones8 su::estion as strate:ic((as holdin: out to :et more of the surplus(( and as a conseMuence, no deal could be made at all# the electrical %ires %ere not placed under:round and the subsidy %as lost& /y o%n intuition is that the probability of a bar:ainin: failure, even thou:h there is a ZOPA, %ill increase as the number of the parties to a ne:otiation :oes up, if each has a veto& And even if a deal is made, C %ould also predict that the transaction costs of reachin: a:reement are li4ely to be much hi:her than %ith a less strict decision rule& Puttin: the holdout issue aside, there is an even more fundamental issue& As parties are added, if each has a veto, it %ould stand to reason that the ris4 of there bein: no ZOPA increases& 9his is not a problem if one believes a ne:otiated deal should not be possible if it has even sli:htly unfavorable distributional conseMuences for even one party& 1ut in the multiparty conte5t, there often may be situations %here the :ains for the %inners from a social perspective are thou:ht to substantially out%ei:h the losses of the losers& 7hat if a possible a:reement benefits nearly all of the parties a :reat deal, but imposes sli:ht losses on a fe%H 1ecause the Pareto(criterion imposes a distribution reMuirement that privile:es the status Muo, the losers mi:ht be e5pected to e5ercise their veto& And yet in many conte5ts, especially if side(payments are not possible, one mi:ht conclude that at least in terms of %ealth ma5imi)ation and ordinary notions of efficiency, the community %ould be better off %ith the deal even thou:h it does not meet the reMuirements of Pareto(efficiency& Cnterestin:ly, usin: the ^>aldor(;ic4s^ compensation criterion as a %ay of definin: economic efficiency avoids the constraints of the classical Pareto(criterion& >aldor(;ic4s as4s %hether it is possible for the %inners to ma4e side payments to the losers so that the losers %ould be indifferent bet%een the ne% arran:ement and the status Muo& 0o such side payment is actually reMuired to be paid, ho%ever& Cf, as a theoretical proposition, the :ains are sufficient to permit such payments, that is enou:h to conclude that the proposed arran:ement .!E is more efficient that the status Muo& Cn >aldor8s %ords, %hether the losers should be :iven compensation & & & is a political Muestion on %hich an economist could hardly pronounce an opinion&"! 1ecause the >aldor(;ic4s test as4s %hether it mi:ht be possible to ma4e a compensatory payment, not %hether in fact one is :oin: to be made, it miti:ates the holdout problem& +ome parties mi:ht be made %orse off, but the ne% arran:ement %ould nonetheless be vie%ed as more efficient than the old status Muo& 1ut >aldor(;ic4s is hardly a complete solution to determinin: economic efficiency in a multiparty ne:otiation& As a matter of economic theory, the criterion is not %ithout its problems, %hether because of potential chan:es in relative prices or income effects&"2 7hile applied economists and policy ma4ers may use cost(benefit analysis or %ealth ma5imi)ation principles to evaluate economic efficiency, they are implicitly ma4in: a leap of faith, and %ei:h\in:] to:ether Gve8s losses and Adam8s :ains&"" /ore fundamentally, in a ne:otiation, no social planner is tryin: to %ei:h overall costs and benefits to assess %hether a sufficient side(payment is theoretically possible& Cf less than all can impose costs on a minority %ithout the need to ma4e side(payments, ho% can %e be confident that the ne% arran:ement improves social %elfare in comparison %ith the status MuoH 0ot%ithstandin: these conceptual difficulties, in many conte5ts unanimity reMuirements are simply bypassed because sub:roups can form coalitions and ma4e their o%n

Once three or more conflictin: parties are involved, coalitions may form and act in concert a:ainst the other disputants &"@ 9hose left out of a coalition may often be %orse off than they %ere before ne:otiations be:an& 3nli4e in bilateral ne:otiations, %here typically one party cannot affect the other party8s 1A90A, in multiparty ne:otiations, those left out of deal may often find themselves %orse off if no deal %ere made& 2onsider, for e5ample, mer:er ne:otiations in an industry %ith three competin: companies& Althou:h a :rand coalition involvin: a mer:er of all three parties mi:ht be possible, so too %ould be mer:ers .!B bet%een any
a:reements, unconstrained by a veto of those %ho mi:ht be disadvanta:ed& t%o of the firms& /oreover, a mer:er bet%een any t%o firms mi:ht ma4e the company left out %orse off than if no deal %ere made&"D 7henever coordinated actions or decisions by less than all the parties can chan:e the status Muo, the potential for coalitional dynamics becomes part and parcel of multiparty ne:otiation& 7ithout attemptin: to plumb fully the conceptual comple5ities of coalitions, it is safe to assert that a variety of strate:ic barriers can arise that do not e5ist in bilateral ne:otiations& 0(person :ame theory demonstrates, for e5ample, that %ith respect to :ames that have no core, the problem is not too many eMuilibriums, but none& Cf a :ame has no core, it is unstable in the sense that %hatever the payoff, some coalition has the po%er and motivation to brea4 up the imputation and :o off on its o%n&"F 2oalitional instability may lead to an obvious strate:ic barrier in such instances& CQ& 6ecision(/a4in: Procedures in /ultiparty 0e:otiation# 9he

/ultilateral ne:otiations often ta4e place %ithin institutions that have created procedural rules allo%in: less than all the parties to chan:e the status Muo, not%ithstandin: the ob'ections of some &"E An interestin: Muestion is
G5ample of +ufficient 2onsensus ho% such procedures mi:ht be used to miti:ate the holdout problem and allo% a ne:otiated resolution that is %idely accepted as le:itimate& -ecent e5amples of comple5 multiparty political ne:otiations too4 place in +outh Africa and 0orthern Creland& Cn +outh Africa, the :oals of the ne:otiations %ere to create an interim constitution, dismantle apartheid, and prepare for the country8s first open elections& Cn 0orthern Creland, the :oal %as to create a frame%or4 for self(:overnment&

Mult&lateral&sm fa&ls no &nternat&onal acceptance an% poor ne)ot&at&on WalterF 11 -eader in Cnternational -elations at the Kondon +chool of Gconomics, speciali)in: in the political economy of international money and finance (9he /ismana:ement of =lobal Cmbalances# 7hy 6id /ultilateralism FailH, Kondon +chool of Gconomics and Political +cience, !2$E$2 !!, http#$$personal&lse&ac&u4$%yatt%al$ima:es$/ismana:in:&pdf* $$ /+ /ultilateralism has failed to mana:e :lobal imbalances, C su::est, for t%o other related and deeply political reasons& First, it stemmed from a persistent un%illin:ness amon: all ma'or countries, not 'ust 2hina, to accept the domestic political costs of ad'ustment and a related shift to different models of economic :ro%th & C ar:ue belo% that 2hina is
indeed an outlier amon: the =(@ (consistin: of the 3+, G3, Japan, and 2hina*, but only because it is relatively poor, unusually open, and has opted for e5chan:e rate tar:etin: rather than inflation tar:etin:& Ct does indeed resist e5ternal policy constraint, but in this re:ard it is

little different to other ma'or countries& +econd, it stemmed from the %ea4ness of the multilateral policy surveillance frame%or4 inherited from the era of %estern dominance& 9his frame%or4 %as poorly suited to facilitate the ne:otiation of the necessary domestic and international political bar:ains, particularly as re:ards policy areas that the ma'or countries vie%ed as too politically sensitive & Cn order for multilateralism to become more effective in the future, these fla%s %ould need to be resolved, but there are fe% si:ns that ma'or :overnments %ill accept the constraints on domestic policy choices that this reMuires& No one s&)ns on to mult&lateral&sm ,annerF 2# 6eputy 6irector of the =eneva 2entre for +ecurity Policy (Fred, 2onflict prevention and conflict resolution# limits of multilateralism, C2-2, "$?$2 , http#$$%%%&icrc&or:$en:$resources$documents$misc$DE'MM2&htm* $$ /+
9he spread and :lobal importance of internal conflicts in the !?? s, to:ether %ith the increasin: diversity of players in international affairs, has led to a certain multilaterali)ation of conflict prevention efforts& 9his multilaterali)ation presupposes that international and re:ional

or:ani)ations, +tates and non(+tate entities %ould combine their efforts to fi:ht the spread of deadly conflicts , in other %ords that all parties involved should accept a policy scheme that subscribes to a common vision on conflict resolution& 1ut the diversity of mission mandates, the respective or:ani)ational turf, the bureaucratic red tape, national interests and conflictin: vie%s on conflict prevention and humanitarian actions set limits to effective multilateral action&

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Amon: the various players, the 3nited 0ations remains the only institution %ith :lobal le:itimacy for conflict prevention& Pet re:ional or:ani)ations have been :ainin: importance in security cooperation over the last fe% years& 7hile this type of cooperation is invaluable, the division of labour bet%een the 30 and re:ional or:ani)ations has run into trouble& For e5ample, %ith re:ard to the 0A9O military intervention in >osovo, 30 +ecretary(=eneral >ofi Annan %arned that conflict prevention, peace(4eepin: and peacema4in: must not become an area of

competition bet%een the 3nited 0ations and re:ional or:ani)ations& \? ] 0=Os and humanitarian or:ani)ations play an inte:ral and increasin:ly important role in conflict prevention, o%in: to their 4no%led:e of and involvement in potential conflict areas& 9here is, ho%ever, an uneasy relationship bet%een humanitarian or:ani)ations and other parties en:a:ed in conflict prevention and peace implementation& Cn the final analysis, +tates
remain the most important players in today8s international system, and if their national interests are at sta4e, they may tend to short(cut international or:ani)ations in favour of international contact :roups or unilateral action& 9he follo%in: section %ill briefly e5amine each of these entities and their ability and %illin:ness to en:a:e in multilateral preventive action&

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222A, Iran !rol&f

No r&s# mult&lateral&sm "&ll resol+e Iran prol&f Braut(ammerF * %inner of the !?BE Pulit)er Pri)e for distin:uished commentary and %riter of a nationally syndicated column for 9he 7ashin:ton Post 7riters =roup 9he :ood, bad and u:ly side of multilateralism, 9o%nhall, B$2D$2 F, http#$$to%nhall&com$columnists$charles4rauthammer$2 F$ B$2D$theL:ood,LbadLandLu:lyLsideLofLmult ilateralism$pa:e$full* $$ /+ CranAs ans%er is no% in& Ct %ill not& Cndeed, on the day before it sent its reply to the 3&0&, Cran barred CAGA inspectors from the uranium enrichment facilities at 0atan)& Our e5ercise in multilateralism has no% reached criticality& 7e never e5pected Cran to respond positively& 9he %hole point in :oin: the e5tra mile %as to demonstrate American :ood %ill and thus :et our partners to support real sanctions at the +ecurity 2ouncil& 1ut this %ill not %or4& 9he -ussians and 2hinese are already sendin: si:nals that they %ill allo% Cran to endlessly dra: out the process& Gven if %e do :et sanctions imposed on Cran, they %ill undoubtedly be %ea4& And even if they are stron:, the mullahs %ill not :ive up the :lory and dominion (especially over the Arabs* that come %ith the bomb in e5chan:e for a mess of potta:e & -ealistically spea4in:, the point of this multilateral e5ercise cannot be to stop CranAs nuclear pro:ram by diplomacy& 9hat has al%ays been a fantasy& Ct %ill ta4e military means& 9here %ill be terrible conseMuences from such an attac4& 9hese must be %ei:hed a:ainst the terrible
conseMuences of allo%in: an openly apocalyptic Cranian leadership from acMuirin: %eapons of :enocide&

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222A, !rol&f
Current non2prol&ferat&on efforts pro+e mult&lateral&sm can7t sol+e prol&f Har+e'F 6 3niversity -esearch Professor of Cnternational -elations, professor in the 6epartment of Political +cience, and the director of the 2entre for Forei:n Policy +tudies at 6alhousie 3niversity (Fran4, +mo4e And /irrors# =lobali)ed 9errorism And 9he Cllusion Of /ultilateral +ecurity, p& !@2(!@"* $$ /+ 9he /yth of /ultilateral Alternatives to 1/6 9o ma4e a much stron:er case for the 0A26 re:ime its proponents must do more than hi:hli:ht the costs, ris4s, and technolo:ical impedi( ments of 1/6 ( that tactic %ill never be sufficient& /ore compellin: evidence is reMuired to demonstrate that multilateral arms control actually %or4s & ;o%ever, the evidence indicates that %hen it comes to preventin: 7/6 proliferation, the 0A26As AsuccessesA %ill never be as positive (or constructive* as its AfailuresA are ne:ative& /ultilateralists %ill no doubt respond to this assertion %ith a list of %ays that their approach can be made to %or4 more effectively& 1ut they must also sho% that proposed solutions are realistic, cost(effective, technolo:ically feasible, and more li4ely to produce a :reater return in security than correspondin: solutions to 1/6As deficiencies& Proponents of multilateralism have spent almost no time developin: this case, for obvious reasons ( the impediments to multilateral success are far more si:nificant, more fundamental, more entrenched in domestic and inter( national politics, and therefore less resolvable than any technolo:ical, financial, or security hurdles associated %ith 1/6 success (includin: overcomin: %orries about -ussian and 2hinese responses* & 2onsider the follo%in:# no other security threat has produced more multilateral institutions , a:reements, treaties, or:ani)ations, non(:overnmental or:ani)ations, committees, meetin:s, e5penses, and activity, yet 7/6 continue to proliferate& Cf the combined investments in multi( lateral approaches to non(proliferation and disarmament have failed to stop the spread of 7/6 , ar:uably amon: the most serious security threats of all time, %hat does that su::est about the capacity of multi( lateral institutions to protect citi)ens a:ainst threats that do not pose the same 4ind of ur:ency or produce the same 4ind of motivation to succeedH +uccess %ith respect to proliferation, in other %ords, is the crucial test of multilateral approaches to security& Cf %e have failed here, %e are not li4ely to succeed %hen it comes to less pressin: security threats, for obvious reasons ( the incentives to acMuire and spread 7/6 are too stron:& 9he evidence is not persuasive to demonstrate that multilateral alter( natives promise a better return for security investments ( prevention, pre(emption, conventional deterrence, constructive en:a:ement, diplomacy, import(e5port controls, economic sanctions, transparency, monitorin:, verification, and codification have all failed in the past, and are even less li4ely in the future, to ensure 3&+& or -ussian security from 7/6 threats & 2ollectively, these approaches have made meanin:ful pro:ress on arms control and non(proliferation, but (!* they failed throu:hout the cold %ar to prevent the spread of nuclear and ballistic missile technolo:yR (2* they remain incapable of providin: levels of security to render nuclear %eapons obsoleteR and ("* they are inappropriate to address current and future security threats& Cn spite of the need for chan:e, ho%ever, the arms control and disarmament com( munity continues to defend status Muo policies as if they %ere the only le:itimate options& +everal problems %ith each policy %ill be addressed in turn& Prevention 2onsider for a moment the follo%in: 0A26 failures (a list that continues to :ro%*# the inability to enter into force of the second +trate:ic Arms -eduction treaty (+9A-9 CC*R the lac4 of serious ne:otiations on +9A-9 CCCR re(affirmation by ma'or po%ers of the need for nuclear %eapons (such as 0A9OAs 0e% +trate:ic 6octrine, 3&+& Presidential 6irective F , -ussiaAs revised nuclear policy*R refusal by -ussian, American, and Guropean (0A9O* officials to accept a relatively strai:htfor%ard commitment to Ano first useAR the persistence of tactical nuclear %eapons and their inclusion in nuclear force plannin: doctrineR south Asian nuclear tests and subseMuent decisions by 7estern po%ers to lift economic sanctions a:ainst Cndia and Pa4istanR the impendin: demise of the 2omprehensive 9est 1an and the death of the Anti(1allistic /issile 9reatiesR proliferation of %eapons technolo:y to outer spaceR failure of the 0on( Proliferation 9reaty (0P9* to stop si:natories and non(si:natories from spreadin: and acMuirin: nuclear material and %eapons technolo:yR and so on & Cf %e are indeed on the ver:e of devaluin: the currency of nuclear %eapons because of an
apparent consensus that such %eapons are absurd, unethical, and immoral, %hy is this absurdity spreadin:H 9here are t%o possible ans%ers# (!* the leaders of ne% and aspirin: nuclear states donAt understand ho% in( credibly foolish this is, or (2* members of the arms control and disarmament community canAt Muite :rasp ho% perfectly rational it is&

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222A, Space Col

All pre+&ous (uman spacefl&)(t &s &ns&)n&f&cant lon) term colon&9at&on &s st&ll &nfeas&3le /aun&us 10 (2 ! , -o:er, Ph6, 2urator, Planetary G5ploration Pro:rams, 0ational Air and +pace /useum, e5pert on Aerospace history, fello% and board member of the American Astronautical +ociety, 2an %e coloni)e the solar systemH ;uman biolo:y and survival in the e5treme space environment, Gndeavour Qolume "@, Cssue ", +eptember 2 ! , Pa:es !22(!2?, science direct, * Althou:h microbial life mi:ht survive the e5treme conditions of space, for ;omo sapien sapiens t(e space en+&ronment rema&ns remar#a3l' %an)erous to l&feL One space life scientist, Qadim -y:alov, remar4ed that ensurin: human life %ur&n) spacefl&)(t "as lar)el' a3out pro+&%&n) t(e 3as&cs of (uman p('s&olo)&cal nee%sL Arom t(e most cr&t&cal meanin: that its absence %ould cause immediate death, to the least critical these include such constants available here on Garth of atmosp(er&c pressureF 3reat(a3le o1')enF temperatureF %r&n#&n) "aterF foo%F )ra+&tat&onal pull on p('s&cal s'stemsF ra%&at&on m&t&)at&onF an% ot(ers of a less immediate nature& As technolo:ies, and 4no%led:e about them, stand at this time, humans are able to venture &nto space for s(ort per&o%s of less t(an a 'ear only by supplyin: all of these needs either by ta4in: everythin: %ith them (o5y:en, food, air, etc&* or creatin: them artificially (pressuri)ed vehicles, centrifu:al force to substitute for :ravity, etc&*&! +pacefli:ht %ould be much easier if humans could :o into hibernation durin: the e5tremes of spacefli:ht, as did the +treptococcus mitis bacteria& -esolvin: these issues has proven difficult but not insurmountable for such basic spacefli:ht activities as those underta4en durin: the heroic a:e of space e5ploration %hen the 3nited +tates and the +oviet 3nion raced to the /oon& Overcomin: the technolo:ical hurdles encountered %ur&n) t(e Mercur'F Gem&n&F an% Apollo pro)rams "ere c(&l%Ns pla' &n compar&son to t(e t(reat to (uman l&fe pose% 3' lon) %urat&onF %eep space m&ss&ons to suc( places as MarsL Gven the most sophisticated of those, the lunar landin:s of Pro'ect Apollo, %ere relatively short campin: trips on an e5ceptionally close body in the solar system, and li4e many campin: trips underta4en by Americans the astronauts too4 %ith them everythin: they %ould need to use %hile there& 9his approach %ill cont&nue to "or# "ell unt&l t(e %est&nat&on &s so far a"a' t(at resuppl' from -art( 3ecomes (&)(l' pro3lemat&c &f not &mposs&3le if the len:th of time to be :one is so :reat that resupply proves infeasible& 9here is no Muestion that the 3&+& could return to the /oon in a more dynamic and robust version of ApolloR it could also build a research station there and resupply it from Garth %hile rotatin: cre%s and resupplyin: from Garth on a re:ular basis& Cn this instance, the lunar research station mi:ht loo4 somethin: li4e a more sophisticated and difficult to support version of the Antarctic research stations& A difficult challen:e, yesR but certainly it is somethin: that could be accomplished %ith presently envisioned technolo:ies&!! 9he real difficulty is that at t(e po&nt a lunar researc( stat&on 3ecomes a colon' profoun% c(an)es to t(e manner &n "(&c( (umans &nteract "&t( t(e en+&ronment 3e'on% -art( must ta#e placeL Countermeasures for core c(allen)es :ravity, radiation, particulates, and ancillary effects provide serious challen:es for (umans en)a)e% &n space colon&9at&on IA&)ure 6KL -&t(er t(e plan can7t sol+e or &t tra%es off "&t( resources necessar' to -art(7s susta&na3&l&t' -l(efna"' 4 \0ader ( Professor of Gn:lish at the 3niversity of /iami, %riter on C- published in 'ournals includin: Cnternational +ecurity, Astropolitics, and +urvival, February 2, 2 ?, Planetary demo:raphics and space coloni)ation, online# http#$$%%%&thespacerevie%&com$article$!2?F$! 9he idea that population :ro%th %ill drive space e5pansion is an old one& Cn !EDB, the 6anish -everend Otto 6iederich Kut4en made reference to the settlement of human bein:s on other planets as a %ay to alleviate population pressure in his article, An enMuiry into the proposition that the number of the people is the happiness of the realm, or the :reater the number of sub'ects, the more flourishin: the state& Ct %as also much on the mind of 0i4olai Fedorov in his development of his important ideas about space travel& 9he population e5plosion of the 2 th century and the increased concern about the planet8s ecolo:ical limitations have 4ept these concerns alive and %ell, fi:urin: prominently in visions li4e =erard >& O80eill8s !?EF boo4 9he ;i:h Frontier, and a :reat deal of space opera& 9oday the %orld is still seein: lar:e(scale mi:rations, but it seems hi:hly unli4ely that they %ill translate into a push off(planet, even %ere the technolo:y to become available in this century as O80eill (and many others* have predicted& An important reason is that the

Nuclear War MICHIGAN 7WS 2013 1*4/221 affluent, technolo:ically advanced states that are most capable of conductin: the effort seem least li4ely to :enerate space colonists, :iven their tendency to receive rather than e5port immi:rants in recent decades& 9his pattern is reinforced by the fact that their populations are a:in:, and appear to be either stabili)in: or :radually declinin:Jnot the demo:raphic picture usually associated %ith such dramatic e5pansion& 9his may su::est that the rich industriali)ed countries %ill be the main providers of the money and technolo:y for the enterprise, %hile the fast(:ro%in: developin: nations provide a disproportionate share of the colonists, but the facts of the situation are more comple5& (O80eill, certainly, %as concerned by the need to redress 9hird 7orld poverty %hen he %rote 9he ;i:h Frontier&* ;o%ever, even assumin: that the cooperation necessary to ma4e this hi:hly uneMual arran:ement %or4 &s someho% achieved, the fact remains that most developin: states are actually %ell alon: the demo:raphic path already ta4en by the industriali)ed nations& 9he pundits %ho dismiss Gurope8s future on demo:raphic :rounds, %hile celebratin: (or dreadin:* the rise of 2hina, tend to overloo4 the reality that Gurope and 2hina are in the same boat %ith re:ard to family si)es& 9he 9otal Fertility -ate (9F-*r for the People8s -epublic of 2hina is actually !&EE births per %oman, %ell belo% the replacement level of 2&!, and sli:htly belo% 0or%ay8s& (9he trend is even more mar4ed amon: the overseas 2hinese# the four countries %ith the lo%est 9F-s in the %orld bein: ;on: >on:, /acao, +in:apore and 9ai%an, respectively&* 7hile countries li4e the Philippines have hi:her fertility rates, a similar drop is already evident in several other developin: Gast Asian countries (1urma, 9hailand, Qietnam*, as %ell as industriali)ed >orea and Japan& 9he same trends are evident in the /iddle Gast as %ell, contrary to %hat some sectors of the media proclaim& Cn 9ur4ey, Al:eria, 9unisia, Kebanon and Cran, in fact, birth rates have already fallen belo% replacement level, %ith fundamentalist Cran8s !&E children per %oman belo% the levels of Finland, 6enmar4, Ku5embour: and France& 9he trends are less advanced in southern Asia, but still evident there too, %ith Cndia8s 9F- at 2&B and 1an:ladesh8s at "& & Pa4istan8s is "&F, relatively hi:h, but also representin: a sustained drop from nearly t%ice that in the early !?F s, and li4ely to fall to 2&" by 2 2D accordin: to a 3nited 0ations study& (Cn the same time frame, Cndia8s birth rate is li4ely to fall to replacement levels, or very close to them&* 9he situation is similar in the 7estern hemisphere, and not only in the 3nited +tates and 2anada& 7hile fertility remains relatively hi:h in 2entral America (=uatemala8s 9F- is "&F births per %oman*, these countries still represent a relatively small share of the population of the re:ion as a %hole& Cn populous 1ra)il, by contrast, births have fallen to fe%er than t%o per %oman, and the same :oes for 3ru:uay, %ith Ar:entina not far behind& 2uba8s 9F- is amon: the lo%est in the %orld at !&F& Gven in /e5ico, the source of so much consternation in the 3nited +tates, the fi:ure is under 2&@ and droppin:& Cn short, very hi:h fertility rates have become a thin: of the past outside sub( +aharan Africa, and even there the li4elihood is that development %ill mean this chan:es here as %ell& Of course, that leaves the possibility of population :ro%th from the other end of the telescope# :reater lon:evity, but the prospects for this also seem to have been e5a::erated& For American %omen, life e5pectancy improved from @E years in !? , to E! years in !?D Ja D percent increase in that half(century& From !?D to 2 , this %as e5tended by another ei:ht to ten years, a much more modest ! !D percent :ro%th in the same len:th of time& (9he profile of male life e5pectancy in the 3+ follo%ed a similar course&* 9his is a broad slo%do%n in the e5tension of the human life span, despite the s4yroc4etin: cost of health care& Accordin:ly, 'ust :oin: by the established trends, life is unli4ely to :et very much lon:er in the foreseeable future& Cndeed, there are si:ns that this pro:ress is bein: reversed, %ith smo4in: and obesity commonly attac4ed as the culprits& Of course, there are those %ho predict revolutionary advances in medicine %hich %ill radically e5tend life and health in the near future, and perhaps even eliminate death, but there has been little in the %ay of tan:ible results to support such promises& 1ecause of these trends, %here :lobal population nearly Muadrupled in the last century, it may actually crest and start to drop by the middle of this one& Of course, none of this is to dismiss claims that the %orld faces serious population stresses, or to ar:ue that even slo%er population :ro%th %ould not be desirable& Accordin: to the 7orld%atch Cnstitute, the %orld economy %as already consumin: the resources of !&2 Garths by !???, a fi:ure that had risen to !&@ Garths by this year& 9he addition of t%o to three billion people in the comin: decades as the drop in population :ro%th catches up %ith the drop in fertility rates, as %ell as the stru::le to :ive billions more of those already here a decent life, %ill increase it (all other thin:s bein: eMual*& 9he fact that the increase %ill over%helmin:ly occur in the poorest countries also poses important challen:es& Of course, it may seem a %orld of nine billion people or more on a planet facin: ecolo:ical de:radation and resource crunches %ill still suffice to drive a torrent of settlers out to the rest of the solar system& ;o%ever, the same economic constraints discussed above %ould preclude that& Gven %ere space settlement to appear an attractive palliative under those circumstances, it seems unli4ely that a really stru::lin: planetary

Nuclear War MICHIGAN 7WS 2013 170/221 economy %ould be up to the 'ob of deliverin: demo:raphically si:nificant numbers of people to ne% homes in orbit and beyond and eMuippin: them to live off the resources in space, rather than dependin: on Garth8s limited stoc4 of them& Cn other %ords, the motivation %ould e5ist, but not the means, and the opposite also seems to be true# that a %orld economy capable of buildin: habitable space colonies is li4ely to be one si:nificantly more prosperous than that of today, rather than poorer& For that reason, life %ould probably be more comfortable for most of the planet8s inhabitants rather than less, diminishin: the push factor that has historically been so important in such movements in the past& (9hat this population %ould on the %hole be olderJand in that, hardly the demo:raphic profile of a pioneerin: cultureJshould also be noted in such a consideration&* 9his may mean that, as %riters li4e ;ans /oravec and -ay >ur)%eil have su::ested, it is not human bein:s, but the robotic mind children of humanity, that %ill leave the Garth to e5plore the universe beyond it, %ith the vast ma'ority of the flesh(and(blood humans sittin: out the adventure at home& Colon&9at&onNs &mposs&3le an% 'ou s(oul% pr&+&le)e s(ort2term e1&stent&al r&s#s Stross 7 (2harlie, <9he ;i:h Frontier, -edu5,< http#$$%%%&antipope&or:$charlie$blo:( static$2 E$ F$theLhi:hLfrontierLredu5&html*

CAm :oin: to ta4e it as read that the idea of space coloni)ation isnAt unfamiliarR domed cities on /ars, orbitin: cylindrical space habitats a la J& 6& 1ernal or =erard >& OA0eill, that sort of thin:& =eneration ships that ta4e hundreds of years to ferry colonists out to other star systems %here J as %e are no% discoverin: J there are profusions of planets to e5plore& And C donAt %ant to spend much time tal4in: about the unspo4en ideolo:ical underpinnin:s of the ur:e to space coloni)ation, other than to point out that theyAre there, that the case for space coloni)ation isnAt usually presented as an economic enterprise so much as a Muasi(reli:ious one& <7e canAt afford to 4eep all our e::s in one bas4et< isnAt so much a 'ustification

as an appeal to sentimentality, for in the hypothetical case of a planet(trashin: catastrophe, %e (%ho currently inhabit the surface of the Garth* are dead any%ay& 9he future e5tinction of the human species cannot affect you if you are already dead # strictly spea4in:, it should be of no personal concern& ;istorically, crossin: oceans and settin: up farmsteads on ne% lands conveniently stripped of indi:enous inhabitants by disease has been a cost(effective proposition& 1ut the scale factor involved in space travel is stron:ly counter(intuitive& ;ereAs a handy metaphor# letAs appro5imate one astronomical unit J the distance bet%een the Garth and the sun, rou:hly !D million 4ilometres, or F times the distance from the Garth to the /oon J to one centimetre& =ot thatH !A3 S !cm& (Pou may %ant to :et hold of a ruler

to follo% throu:h %ith this one&* 9he solar system is conveniently small& 0eptune, the outermost planet in our solar system, orbits the sun at a distance of almost e5actly " A3, or " centimetres J one foot (in imperial units*& =iant Jupiter is D&@F A3 out from the sun, almost e5actly t%o inches (in old money*& 7eAve sent space probes to JupiterR they ta4e t%o and a half years to :et there if %e send them on a strai:ht ;ohmann transfer orbit, but %e can :et there a bit faster usin: some fancy orbital mechanics& 0eptune is still a stretch J only one spacecraft, Qoya:er 2, has made it out there so far& Cts 'ourney time %as !2 years, and it %asnAt stoppin:& (CtAs no% on its %ay out into interstellar space, havin: passed the heliopause some years a:o&* 9he >uiper belt, domain of icy %anderin: d%arf planets li4e Pluto and Gris, e5tends perhaps another " A3, before mer:in: into the much more tenuous ;ills cloud and Oort cloud, domain of loosely coupled lon:(period comets& 0o% for the first scale shoc4# usin: our handy metaphor the >uiper belt is perhaps a metre in diameter& 9he Oort cloud, in contrast, is as much as D , A3 in radius J its outer ed:e lies half a 4ilometre a%ay& =ot thatH Our planetary solar system is " centimetres, rou:hly a foot, in radius& 1ut to :et to the ed:e of the Oort cloud, you have to :o half a 4ilometre, rou:hly a third of a mile& 0e5t on our tour is Pro5ima 2entauri, our nearest star& (9here mi:ht be a bro%n d%arf or t%o lur4in: unseen in the icy depths beyond the Oort cloud, but if %eAve spotted one, CAm una%are of it&* Pro5ima 2entauri is @&22 li:ht years a%ay&A li:ht year is F"&2 5 ! " A3, or ?&@F 5 ! !2 >m& +o Pro5ima 2entauri, at 2FE, A3, is 'ust under t%o and a third 4ilometres, or t%o miles (in old money* a%ay from us& 1ut Pro5ima 2entauri is a poor choice, if %eAre loo4in: for habitable real estate& 7hile e5oplanets are apparently common as muc4, terrestrial planets are harder to findR =liese DB!c, the first such to be detected (and it loo4s li4e a pretty %eird one, at that*, is rou:hly 2 &@ li:ht years a%ay, or usin: our metaphor, about ten miles& 9ry to :et a handle on this# it ta4es us 2(D years to travel t%o inches& 1ut the proponents of interstellar travel are tal4in: about

'ourneys of ten miles& 9hatAs the first point C %ant to :et across# that if the distances involved in interplanetary travel are enormous, and the travel times fit to rival the first Australian settlers, then the distances and times involved in interstellar travel are mind(numbin:& 9his is not to say that interstellar travel is impossibleR Muite the contrary& 1ut to do so effectively you need either (a* outra:eous amounts of cheap ener:y, or (b* hi:hly efficient robot probes, or (c* a ma:ic %and& And in the absence of (c* youAre not :oin: to :et any ne%s bac4 from the other end in less than decades& Gven if (a* is achievable, or by means of (b* %e can send self(replicatin: factories and have them turn distant solar systems into hives of industry, and more speculatively find some %ay to transmit human bein:s there, they are :oin: to have )ero net economic impact on our circumstances (e5cept insofar as sendin:
them out costs us money*& 7hat do C mean by outra:eous amounts of cheap ener:yH KetAs postulate that in the future, it %ill be possible to %ave a ma:ic %and and construct a campin: 4it that encapsulates all the necessary technolo:ies and information to rebuild a human civili)ation capable of eventually sendin: out interstellar coloni)ation missions J a bunch of self(replicatin:, self(repairin: robotic hard%are, and a do%nloadable copy of the sum total of human 4no%led:e to date& KetAs also be :enerous and thro% in a closed(circuit life support system capable of 4eepin: a human occupant alive indefinitely, for many years at a stretch, %ith )ero failures and losses, and capable %here necessary of providin: medical intervention& KetAs thro% in a %illin: astronaut (the foolX* and stic4 them inside this assembly& CtAs :oin: to be pretty borin: in there, but C thin4 %e can conceive of our minimal manned interstellar mission as bein: about the si)e and mass of a /ercury capsule& And CAm :oin: to nail a tar:et to the barn door and call it 2 4: in total& (Of course %e can cut corners, but CAve already invo4ed self(replicatin: robotic factories and closed(cycle life support systems, and those are close enou:h to ma:ic %ands as it is& CAm :oin: to deliberately i:nore more speculative technolo:ies such as star%isps, mind transfer, or ACs sufficiently po%erful to operate autonomously J althou:h C used them shamelessly in my novel Accelerando& 7hat CAm tryin: to do here is come up %ith a useful metaphor for the ener:y bud:et realistically reMuired for interstellar fli:ht&* Cncidentally, a probe massin: !(2 tons %ith an astronaut on top is a bit implausible, but a !(2 ton probe could conceivably carry enou:h robotic instrumentation to do useful research, plus a laser po%erful enou:h to punch a

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si:nal home, and maybe even that shrin4(%rapped military$industrial comple5 in a tin can that %ould allo% it to build somethin: useful at the other end& Anythin: much smaller, thou:h, isnAt :oin: to be able to transmit its findin:s to us J at least, not %ithout some brea4throu:hs in communication technolo:y that havenAt sho%n up so far& 0o%, letAs say %e %ant to deliver our canned mon4ey to Pro5ima 2entauri %ithin its o%n lifetime& 7eAre sendin: them on a one(%ay trip, so a @2 year fli:ht time isnAt unreasonable& (9heir 'ob is to supervise the machinery as it unpac4s itself and be:ins to bre% up a bunch of ne% colonists usin: an artificial uterus& O4ayH* 9his means they need to achieve a mean cruise speed of ! I of the speed of li:ht& 9hey then need to decelerate at the other end& At ! I of c relativistic effects are minor J thereAs :oin: to be time dilation, but itAll be on the order of hours or days over the duration of the @2(year voya:e& +o %e need to accelerate our astronaut to " , , metres per second, and decelerate them at the other end& 2heatin: and usin: 0e%tonAs la%s of motion, the 4inetic ener:y acMuired by acceleration is ? 5 ! !E Joules, so %e can call it 2 5 ! !B Joules in round numbers for the entire trip& 01# 9his assumes that the propulsion system in use is ! I efficient at convertin: ener:y into momentum, that there are no losses from friction %ith the interstellar medium, and that the propulsion source is e5ternal J that is, thereAs no need to ta4e reaction mass alon: en route& +o this is a lo%er bound on the ener:y cost of transportin: our /ercury(capsule si)ed e5pedition to Pro5ima 2entauri in less than a lifetime& 9o put this fi:ure in perspective, the total conversion of one 4ilo:ram of mass into ener:y yields ? 5 ! !F Joules& (7hich one of my sources informs me, is about eMuivalent to 2!&F me:atons in thermonuclear e5plosive yield*& +o %e reMuire the eMuivalent ener:y output to @ me:atons of nuclear arma:eddon in order to move a capsule of about the :ross %ei:ht of a fully loaded Qolvo QE automobile to Pro5ima 2entauri in less than a human lifetime& 9hatAs the same as the yield of the entire 3+ /inuteman CCC C21/ force& For a less e5plosive reference point, our entire planetary economy runs on rou:hly @ tera%atts of electricity (@ 5 ! !2 %atts*& +o it %ould ta4e our total planetary electricity production for a period of

half a million seconds J rou:hly D days J to supply the necessary va(va(voom& 1ut to brin: this bac4 to earth %ith a bump, let me 'ust remind you that this probe is so implausibly efficient that itAs veerin: bac4 into <ma:ic %and< territory& CAve tap(danced past a ! I efficient po%er transmission system capable of operatin: across interstellar distances %ith pinpoint
precision and no conversion losses, and that allo%s the spacecraft on the receivin: end to convert po%er directly into momentum& 9his is not e5actly li4e any po%er transmission system that anyoneAs built to this date, and CAm not sure C can see %here itAs comin: from& Our one astronaut, ! I of c mission appro5imates %ell to an unmanned fli:ht, but %hat about lon:er(term e5peditionsH =eneration ships are a staple of +FR theyAre slo% (probably under !I of c* and they carry a self(sufficient city(state& 9he cre% %ho set off %onAt live to see their destination (the fli:ht time to Pro5ima 2entauri at !I of c is about @2 years*, but the va:ue hope is that someone %ill& Keavin: aside our lac4 of a proven trac4 record at buildin: social institutions that are stable across time periods :reatly in e5cess of a human lifespan, usin: a :eneration ship probably doesnAt do much for our ener:y bud:et problem either& A society of human bein:s are li4ely to need more space and ra% material to do stuff %ith

%hile in fli:htR stic4in: a solitary e5plorer in a tin can for forty(somethin: years is merely cruel and unusual, but doin: it to an entire city for several centuries probably Mualifies as a crime a:ainst humanity& 7e therefore need
to rela5 the mass constraint& Assumin: the same super(efficient life support as our solitary e5plorer, %e mi:ht postulate that each colonist reMuires ten tons of structural mass to move around in& (About the same as a lar:e trailer home& For life&* 7eAve cut the pea4 velocity by an order of ma:nitude, but %eAve increased the payload reMuirement by an order of ma:nitude per passen:er J and %e need enou:h passen:ers to ma4e a stable society fly& CAd :uess a sensible lo%er number %ould be on the order of 2 people, the si)e of a prehistoric primate troupe& (=enetic diversityH CAm :oin: to assume %e can hand(%ave around that by pac4in: some deep(fro)en sperm and ova, or fro)en embryos, for later reuse&* 1y the time %e %or4 up to a minimal :eneration ship (and ho% minimal can %e :et, confinin: 2 human bein:s in an ob'ect %ei:hin: aout 2 tons, for rou:hly the same period of time that has elapsed since the Plymouth colony landed in %hat %as later to become /assachusettsH* %eAre actually reMuirin: much more ener:y than our solitary hi:h(speed e5plorer& And remember, this is only %hat it ta4es to :o to Pro5ima 2entauri our nearest nei:hbour&

=liese DB!c is five times as far a%ay& Planets that are already habitable insofar as they orbit inside the habitable )one of their star, possess free o5y:en in their atmosphere, and have a mass, surface :ravity and escape velocity that are not too forbiddin:, are li4ely to be some%hat rarer& (And if there is free o5y:en in the atmosphere on a planet, that implies
somethin: else J the presence of pre(e5istin: photosynthetic life, a carbon cycle, and a bunch of other stuff that could %ell unleash a bi: can of %hoop( ass on an unprimed human immune system& 9he Muestion of ho% %e mi:ht interact %ith alien biolo:ies is an order of ma:nitude bi::er and more comple5 than the Muestion of ho% %e mi:ht :et there J and the preliminary outloo4 is rather forbiddin:&* 9he lon: and the short of %hat CAm tryin: to :et across is Muite simply that, in the absence of technolo:y indistin:uishable from ma:ic J ma:ic tech that,

furthermore, does thin:s that from todayAs perspective appear to play fast and loose %ith the la%s of physics J interstellar travel for human bein:s is near(as(dammit a non(starter& And %hile C %onAt rule out the possibility of such
seemin:ly(ma:ical technolo:y appearin: at some time in the future, the conclusion C dra% as a science fiction %riter is that if interstellar coloni)ation ever happens, it %ill not follo% the pattern of historical coloni)ation drives that are follo%ed by mass emi:ration and trade bet%een the colonies and the old home soil& 7hat about our o%n solar systemH After contemplatin: the vastness of interstellar space, our o%n solar system loo4s almost comfortin:ly accessible at first& G5plorin: our o%n solar system is a no(brainer# %e can do it, %e are doin: it, and interplanetary

e5ploration is probably :oin: to be seen as one of the :reat scientific underta4in:s of the late 2 th and early 2!st century, %hen the history boo4s :et %ritten& 1ut %hen %e start e5aminin: the prospects for interplanetary coloni)ation thin:s turn :loomy a:ain& 1luntly, %eAre not :oin: to :et there by roc4et ship& Optimistic pro'ects su::est
that it should be possible, %ith the lo% cost roc4ets currently under development, to maintain a Kunar presence for a transportation cost of rou:hly [!D, per 4ilo:ram& +ome e5treme pro'ections su::est that if the cost can be cut to rou:hly triple the cost of fuel and o5idi)er (meanin:, the spacecraft concerned %ill be both lar:ely reusable and very cheap* then %e mi:ht even :et as lo% as [!FD$4ilo:ram to the lunar surface& At that price, sendin: a ! >: astronaut to /oon 1ase One loo4s as if it ou:ht to cost not much more than a first(class return air fare from the 3> to 0e% Zealand &&& e5cept that such a price estimate is ho:%ash& 7e primates have certain failure modes, and one of them that must not be

underestimated is our tendency to irreversibly malfunction %hen e5posed to climactic e5tremes of temperature, pressure, and partial pressure of o5y:en& 7hile the amount of o5y:en, %ater, and food a human consumes per day doesnAt sound all that serious J it probably totals rou:hly ten 4ilo:rams, if you economi)e and recycle the %ashin:(up %ater J the amount of parasitic %ei:ht you need to 4eep the mon4ey from blo%in: out is measured in tons& A -ussian Orlan(/ space suit (%hich, some %ould say, is better than anythin: 0A+A has come up %ith over the years
J ta4e heed of the pre(breathe time reMuirementsX* %ei:hs !!2 4ilo:rams, %hich pretty much puts a floor on our infrastructure reMuirements& An actual habitat %ould need to mass a %hole lot more& Gven at [!FD$4ilo:ram, thatAs :oin: to add up to a very hefty e5cess ba::a:e char:e on that notional first class air fare to 0e% Zealand J and C thin4 the [!FD$4: fi:ure is in any case hi:hly unrealisticR even the authors of the article C cited thou:ht [2 $4: %as a bit more reasonable& 7hichever %ay you cut it, sendin: a sin:le tourist to the moon is :oin: to cost not less than

Nuclear War MICHIGAN 7WS 2013 172/221 [D , J and a more realistic fi:ure, for a mature reusable, cheap, roc4et(based lunar transport cycle is more li4e [!/& And thatAs before you factor in the price of brin:in: them bac4 &&& 9he moon is about !&" li:ht seconds a%ay& Cf %e %ant to :o pannin: the (metaphorical* rivers for :old, %eAd do better to send teleoperator( controlled robotsR itAs close enou:h that %e can control them directly, and far enou:h a%ay that the cost of transportin: food and creature comforts for human e5plorers is astronomical& 9here probably are niches for human %or4ers on a moon base, but only until our robot technolo:ies are some%hat more mature than they are todayR /ission 2ontrol %ould be a lot happier %ith a pair of hands and a hi:h(def camera that doesnAt tal4 bac4 and doesnAt need to :o to the toilet or ta4e naps& 7hen %e loo4 at the rest of the solar system, the picture is even blea4er& /ars is &&& %ell, the phrase <tourist resort< sprin:s to mind, and is promptly filed in the same corner as <=obi desert<& As 1ruce
+terlin: has puts it# <CAll believe in people settlin: /ars at about the same time C see people settlin: the =obi 6esert& 9he =obi 6esert is about a thousand times as hospitable as /ars and five hundred times cheaper and easier to reach& 0obody ever %rites <=obi 6esert Opera< because, %ell, itAs 'ust 4ind of plon4in:ly obvious that thereAs no :ood reason to :o there and live& CtAs u:ly, itAs inhospitable and thereAs no %ay to ma4e it pay& /ars is 'ust the same, really& 7e 'ust romantici)e it because itAs so hard to reach&< Cn other %ords, :oin: there to e5plore is fine and dandy J our robots are all over it already& 1ut as a desirable residential nei:hbourhood it has some shortcomin:s, startin: %ith the sli:ht lac4 of breathable air and

the sub(Antarctic ni:httime temperatures and the /ach &D dust storms, and %or4in: do%n from there& Actually,
there probably is a :ood reason for sendin: human e5plorers to /ars& And thatAs the distance# at up to " minutes, the speed of li:ht delay means that remote control of robots on the /artian surface is e5tremely tedious& Gither %e need autonomous roots that can be assi:ned tas4s and carry them out %ithout direct human supervision, or %e need astronauts in orbit or on the :round to boss the robot %or4 :an:s around& On the other hand, /ars is a :ood %ay further a%ay than the moon, and has a deeper :ravity %ell& All of %hich drive up the cost per 4ilo:ram delivered to the /artian surface& /aybe FedG5 could cut it as lo% as [2 , per 4ilo:ram, but CAm not holdin: my breath& Ket me repeat myself# %e are not :oin: there %ith

roc4ets& At least, not the conventional 4ind J and %hile there may be a role for nuclear propulsion in deep space, in :eneral thereAs a trade(off bet%een instantaneous thrust and efficiencyR the more efficient your motor, the lo%er the actual thrust it provides& +ome technolo:ies such as the variable specific impulse ma:netoplasma roc4et sho% a :ood de:ree of fle5ibility, but in :eneral theyAre not suitable for :ettin: us from GarthAs surface into orbit J theyAre only useful for truc4in: thin:s around from lo% earth orbit on out& A:ain, as %ith interstellar coloni)ation, there are other options& +pace elevators, if %e build them, %ill invalidate a lot of %hat C
'ust said& +ome analyses of the ener:y costs of space elevators su::est that a mar:inal cost of ["D $4ilo:ram to :eosynchronous orbit should be achievable %ithout %avin: any ma:ic %ands (other than the enormous practical materials and structural en:ineerin: problems of buildin: the thin: in the first place*& +o %e probably can loo4 for%ard to )ero(:ee vacations in orbit, at a price& And space elevators are attractive because theyAre a scalable technolo:yR you can use one to haul into space the material to build more& +o, lon: term, space elevators may :ive us not(unreasonably priced access to space, includin: 'aunts to the lunar surface for a price eMuivalent to less than [! , in todayAs money& At %hich point, settlement %ould be:in to loo4 economically feasible, e5cept &&& 7eAre human bein:s& 7e evolved to flourish in a very specific environment that covers

perhaps ! I of our home planetAs surface area& (Garth is E I ocean, and %hile %e can survive, %ith assistance, in e5tremely inhospitable terrain, be it arctic or desert or mountain, %e arenAt %ell(adapted to thrivin: there&* +pace itself is a very poor environment for humans to live in& A simple pressure failure can 4ill a spaceship cre% in minutes& And thatAs not the only threat& 2osmic radiation poses a serious ris4 to lon: duration interplanetary missions, and unli4e solar radiation and radiation from coronal mass e'ections the ener:ies of the particles responsible ma4e shieldin: astronauts e5tremely difficult& And finally, thereAs the travel time& 9%o and a half years to Jupiter systemR si5 months to /ars& 0o%, these problems are sub'ect to a variety of approaches J includin: medical ones# does
it matter if cosmic radiation causes lon:(term cumulative radiation e5posure leadin: to cancers if %e have advanced side(effect(free cancer treatmentsH 1etter still, if hydro:en sulphide(induced hibernation turns out to be a practical techniMue in human bein:s, %e may be able to sleep throu:h the trip& 1ut even so, %hen you :et do%n to it, thereAs not really any economically viable activity on the hori)on for people to en:a:e

in that %ould reMuire them to settle on a planet or asteroid and live there for the rest of their lives& Cn :eneral, %hen %e need to e5tract resources from a hostile environment %e tend to build infrastructure to e5ploit them (such as oil platforms* but %e donAt e5actly scurry to move our families there& -ather, cre%s :o out to %or4 a lon: shift, then
return home to ta4e their leave& After all, thereAs no there there J 'ust a ho%lin: %ilderness of north Atlantic :ales and fri:id %ater that %ill 4ill you %ithin five minutes of e5posure& And that, C submit, is the closest metaphor %eAll find for interplanetary coloni)ation& /ost of the heavy liftin: more than a million 4ilometres from Garth %ill be done by robots, overseen by human supervisors %ho %ill be itchin: to :et home and spend their hardship pay& And closer to home, the commerciali)ation of space %ill be incremental and slo%, driven by our increasin: dependence on near(earth space for communications, positionin:, %eather forecastin:, and (still in its embryonic sta:es* tourism& 1ut the domed city on /ars is :oin: to

have to %ait for a ma:ic %and or t%o to do somethin: about the climate, or reinvent a 4ind of human bein: %ho can thrive in an airless, inhospitable environment& Colon&9at&on Imposs&3le mult&ple $arr&ers

$ran%t 7

(6avid 1randt, 9he ;ard +F, articles focusin: on delineatin: science from science fiction, D(! (E, 2an +pace 2oloni)ation =uarantee ;uman +urvivalH, http#$$%%%&hardsf&or:$Cssu+pac&htm* 2an +pace 2oloni)ation =uarantee ;uman +urvivalH /any people have ar:ued that as lon: as humans live only on Garth, %e have <all our e::s in one bas4et<& 9hey su::est %e need space colonies to insure the future of the species& 9here are many current and potential threats to the human race& ;o%ever, considerin: the human source of many of the

Nuclear War MICHIGAN 7WS 2013 173/221 threats and the timescales involved, INm not sure t(at space colon&9at&on s(oul% 3e t(e top pr&or&t' &n preempt&n) t(ose t(reatsL 9imescales 9o consider ho% %ell space coloni)ation is li4ely to solve our problems %e need to as4 "(at t(e t&mescales of susta&na3leF &n%epen%ent space colon&es areL IfF after %&saster str&#es -art(F -art( &s st&ll a3le to supplement t(e nee%s of space colon&esF t(en t(ose space colon&es arenNt necessar&l' essent&al to cont&nu&n) t(e (uman race& 7e have to as4 "(en spaces colon&es "oul% 3e funct&on&n) "&t(out nee% of an' ass&stance from -art(L 9ruly &n%epen%ent space colon&es must not s&mpl' pro+&%e 3are nutr&t&onF a&rF (eatF an% (a3&tat repa&r for 100 'earsL 9hey s(oul% (a+e a non2traumat&9&n) en+&ronment "&t( enou)( people to protect a)a&nst %an)erous le+els of &n3ree%&n) a3le to last an% pro)ress &n%ef&n&tel'L 9here %ill also be a minimum number of people reMuired for any space colony in order to provide needed manpo%er in various occupations (one person %ith multiple occupations doesn8t help if you need t%o of those occupations in different places at the same time*&
;o% does that compare to the timescales of threats from climate chan:e, environmental crisis, nuclear $ bio %eapons and accidents, possible nanotech %eapons or accidents, overpopulation, etc&H 7e also have to consider threats to the :lobal economy, since an economic collapse %ould presumably at least interrupt efforts to%ards establishin: space colonies& Gconomic crises also increase ris4s of %ar, %hich could have apocalyptic conseMuences& Gven assumin: the ultimate solution of human survival is space coloni)ation, %e may need to find a %ay to e5tend the lifespan of human civili)ation and economy on Garth in order to have time to accomplish sustainable space coloni)ation& 2onsider the possible habitats& +pace stations in orbit around Garth or at KD have little natural resources at their location other than solar ener:y& 9he /oon has no atmosphereF a l&m&te%

amount of "ater at 3estF "(&c( part of t(e Moon (as access to solar ener)' +ar&es %ur&n) t(e mont(F an% &tNs not cons&%ere% one of t(e solar s'stemNs 3etter sources of m&neralsL Qenus is e5tremely hotF t(e atmosp(ere &s %an)erous an% "&t( t(e clou% co+er INm not sure (o" pract&cal solar ener)' "oul% 3e at t(e surfaceL /ars has too little atmosphere and accessible %ater is Muestionable F etcL +ome of the outer planetNs moons ma' (a+e enou)( &ce an% ra" mater&alsF 3ut are +er' col%F lac# usa3le atmosp(eres an% )et l&m&te% solar ener)'L And so on& 7e may be able to establish bases at some of these
places in a realistically short amount of time, but not independent ones& Any colony that %ants to :et resources from post(apocalyptic Garth %ill need to have spaceships that can land on Garth and later achieve escape velocity from Garth %hile carryin: car:o %ithout help from Garth& Other%ise, t(e

nee%e% resources ma' not 3e a+a&la3le from a s&n)le astronom&cal 3o%'L 9hat could reMuire lon:er distance
travel bet%een bodies ( %hether thatAs bet%een asteroids, bet%een moons, bet%een planets or some other combination& +i:nificant space travel ability may be essential& A colony %ould need an industrial base capable of e5tractin: and refinin: ra% materials, and ma4in: useful thin:s from them&

Cnterstellar colonies and terraformin: of planets in our solar system are lon:er ran:e :oals& 2olonies &n an' place ot(er t(an an -art(2l&#e planet "&ll re8u&re a su3stant&al &nfrastructure to allo" (umans to e1&st &n an ot(er"&se %ea%l' en+&ronmentL 9he colony needs to be able to maintain and repair that infrastructure&&& 9here is a si:nificant difference bet%een an enormous disaster on Garth and one at any space colony %e can e5pect for at least a century& Gven somethin: on the scale of a <dinosaur 4iller< astero&% &mpact "onNt necessar&l' #&ll all (umans on -art(L (;o%ever, if the %orld economy $ technolo:y is setbac4 too much it may
not be possible to re(achieve a hi(tech civili)ation& 7eAve e5tracted most minerals $ fossil fuels that can be :otten %ithout hi(tech, a post(disaster society may be left unable to :et these&* Ct %ill be a lon: time before an independent space colony could :ro% to the point some

of its people could survive after a ma'or disaster& /ean%hile, %e have not 'et sol+e% t(e p('s&cal an% ps'c(olo)&cal pro3lems t(at %e+elop %ur&n) mont(s of lo" )ra+&t'L /ost of the physical issues may not be si:nificant for those %ho never intend to return to Garth(type :ravities& Psycholo:ical issues remain& +ome physical issues may arise %hen dealin: %ith years and decades in lo% :ravity& Gven in shorter spans of time, %ea4enin: bones may have serious conseMuences in lo% :ravity situations& 7ea4ened hip bones may be a problem for %omen :ivin: birth in lo% :ravity& Other stressful activities may also be problematic& 7e need to find out ho% lo" )ra+&t' "&ll effect a fetus %ur&n) pre)nanc' an% c(&l% )ro"t( after"ar%sL Cdentifyin: and resol+&n) all t(e &ssues &s l&#el' to ta#e man' 'earsL 2urrently, our society is not inclined to invest that much in either stoppin: :lobal %armin: (and other threats* or space habitats& Ct stri4es me as improbable that %e %ill see a heavy investment in both of them at the same time in the ne5t period of time& /y impression is the best chance for human survival is focusin: as much as possible on one or the other of the t%o paths, and that space colon&9at&on "&ll not sol+e t(e pro3lem "&t(&n t(e l&m&te% t&me2frameL Of course, if :overnments refuse to fund solutions to the environmental crisis, but bud:et money for space habitats %e should use that money& ;opefully, :overnments %ill respond to the crisis 3efore &t7s too late an% t(e pro3lems "&ll 3e 3rou)(t un%er control an% "&t(&n safe l&m&tsL 9hen t(ere "&ll 3e no reason not to e1pan% out &nto t(e un&+erseL Postscript For those %ho still believe space coloni)ation should be the
priority, C %ould li4e to su::est one piece of advice& 9he 4no%n threats to human survival in the ne5t century or so are not vast earthMua4es and volcanoes, asteroid impacts, supernovas or other natural disasters& /ost of them are at least partly man(made& Cf the same problems are

not to threaten survival of humans on space colonies, "e e&t(er (a+e to ma#e (umans on -art( act more respons&3l' to ensure sur+&+al 3efore "e colon&9e, or %e need to 4no% ho% to insure that those people %ho coloni)e are not so prone to ma4e the same mista4es their Garthly brothers do& Cf space coloni)ation ends up amountin: to runnin: a%ay from our problems, %e %ill not have chan:ed the odds of human survival by much L +pace colonies %ould need to be planned in a %ay to avoid this fate&

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222A, >n&lateral&sm Causes War

>n&lateral&sm pre+ents confl&ct escalat&on $arnett 2011 Former +enior +trate:ic -esearcher and Professor in the 7arfare Analysis T -esearch 6epartment, 2enter for 0aval 7arfare
+tudies, 3&+& 0aval 7ar 2olle:e, %or4ed as the Assistant for +trate:ic Futures in the Office of Force 9ransformation in the 6O6 ("$E, 9homas, 7orld Politics -evie%, 9he 0e% -ules# Keadership Fati:ue Puts 3&+&, and =lobali)ation, at 2rossroads, http#$$%%%&%orldpoliticsrevie%&com$articles$B ??$the(ne%(rules(leadership(fati:ue(puts(u(s(and(:lobali)ation(at(crossroads, credit to K6>* Gvents in Kibya are a further reminder for Americans that %e stand

at a crossroads in our continuin: evolution as the

%orldAs sole full(service superpo%er& 3nfortunately, %e are increasin:ly see4in: chan:e %ithout cost, and shir4in: from ris4 because %e are tired of the responsibility& 7e donAt 4no% %ho %e are anymore, and our president is a bi: part of that problem& Cnstead of leadin: us, he e5plains to us& 1arac4 Obama %ould have us believe that he is practicin: strate:ic patience& 1ut many e5perts and ordinary citi)ens ali4e have concluded that he is actually beset by strate:ic incoherence (( in effect, a man overmatched by the 'ob& Ct is %orth first e5aminin: the lar:er picture# 7e live in a time of ar:uably the its relative

:reatest structural chan:e in the :lobal order yet endured, %ith this historical momentAs most ama)in: feature bein: and absolute lac4 of mass violence& 9hat is somethin: to consider %hen Americans contemplate military intervention in Kibya, because if %e do ta4e the step to prevent lar:er(scale 4illin: by en:a:in: in some 4illin: of our o%n, %e %ill not be addin: to some fantastically ima:ined :lobal death count stemmin: from the on:oin: <me:alomania< and <evil< of American <empire&< 7eAll be en:a:in: in the same sort of system(administerin: activity that has mar4ed our stunnin:ly successful ste%ardship of :lobal order since 7orld 7ar CC& Ket me be more blunt# As the :uardian of :lobali)ation, the 3&+& military has been the :reatest force for peace the %orld has ever 4no%n& ;ad America been removed from the :lobal dynamics that :overned the 2 th century, the mass murder never %ould have ended& Cndeed, itAs entirely conceivable there %ould no% be no identifiable human civili)ation left, once nuclear %eapons entered the 4illin: eMuation& 1ut the %orld did not 4eep slidin: do%n that path of perpetual %ar& Cnstead, America stepped up and chan:ed everythin: by usherin: in our no%(perpetual :reat(po%er peace& 7e introduced the international liberal trade order 4no%n as :lobali)ation and played loyal Keviathan over its spread& 7hat resulted %as the collapse of empires, an e5plosion of democracy, the persistent spread of human ri:hts, the liberation of %omen, the doublin: of life e5pectancy, a rou:hly ! (fold increase in ad'usted :lobal =6P and a profound and persistent reduction in battle deaths from state(based conflicts& $estF most recent e+&%ence pro+es un&lateral&sm sol+es "ar $roo#s et al 13 \+tephen =& 1roo4s is Associate Professor of =overnment at 6artmouth 2olle:e&=& John C4enberry is the Albert =& /ilban4 Professor of Politics and Cnternational Affairs at Princeton 3niversity in the 6epartment of Politics and the 7oodro% 7ilson +chool of Public and Cnternational Affairs& ;e is also a =lobal Gminence +cholar at >yun: ;ee 3niversity&7illiam 2& 7ohlforth is the 6aniel 7ebster Professor in the 6epartment of =overnment at 6artmouth 2olle:e& 6onAt 2ome ;ome, America# 9he 2ase a:ainst -etrenchment, 7inter 2 !", Qol& "E, 0o& ", Pa:es E( D!,http#$$%%%&mitpress'ournals&or:$doi$abs$! &!!F2$C+G2LaL ! E, =6C File]
A core premise of deep en)a)ement is that it pre+ents the emer)ence

of a far more %an)erous :lobal secur&t' en+&ronment& For one thin:, as noted above, the 3nited +tates8 overseas presence :ives it the levera:e to restrain partners from ta4in: provocative action& Perhaps

more important, its core alliance commitments also deter states %ith aspirations to re:ional he:emony from contemplatin: e5pansion and ma4e its partners more secure, reducin: their incentive to adopt solutions to their security problems that threaten others and thus sto4e security dilemmas& 9he contention that en:a:ed 3&+& po%er dampens the baleful effects of anarchy is consistent %ith influential variants of realist theory& Cndeed, ar:uably the scariest portrayal of the %ar(prone %orld that %ould emer:e absent the American Pacifier is provided in the %or4s of John /earsheimer, %ho forecasts dan:erous multipolar re:ions replete %ith security competition, arms races, nuclear proliferation and associated preventive %artemptations, re:ional rivalries, and even runs at re:ional he:emony and full(scale :reat po%er %ar& E2 ;o% do retrenchment advocates, the bul4 of %hom are realists, discount this benefitH 9heir ar:uments are complicated, but t%o capture most of the variation# (!* 3&+& security :uarantees are not necessary to prevent dan:erous rivalries and conflict in GurasiaR or (2* prevention of rivalry and conflict in Gurasia is not a 3&+& interest& Gach response is connected to a different theory or set of theories, %hich ma4es sense :iven that the %hole debate hin:es on a comple5 future counterfactual (%hat %ould happen to Gurasia8s security settin: if the 3nited +tates truly disen:a:edH*& Althou:h a certain ans%er is impossible, each of these responses is nonetheless a %ea4er ar:ument for retrenchment than advocates ac4no%led:e& 9he first response flo%s from defensive realism as %ell as other international relations theories that discount the conflict(:eneratin: potential of anarchy under contemporary conditions& E" 6efensive realists maintain that the hi:h e5pected costs of territorial conMuest, defense dominance, and an array of policies and practices that can be used credibly to si:nal beni:n intent, mean that Gurasia8s ma'or states could mana:e re:ional multipolarity peacefully %ithout theAmerican pacifier& -etrenchment %ould be a bet on this scholarship, particularly in re:ions %here the 4inds of stabili)ers that nonrealist theories point toJsuch as democratic :overnance or dense institutional lin4a:esJare either absent or %ea4ly present& 9here are three other ma'or bodies of scholarship, ho%ever, that mi:ht :ive decisionma4ers pause before ma4in: this bet& First is re:ional e5pertise& 0eedless to say, there is no consensus on the net security effects of 3&+& %ithdra%al& -e:ardin: each re:ion, there are optimists and pessimists& Fe% e5perts e5pect a return of intense :reat po%er competition in a post(American Gurope, but many doubt Guropean :overnments %ill pay the political costs of increased G3 defense cooperation and the bud:etary costs of increasin: military outlays& E@ 9he result mi:ht be a -urope

that &s &ncapa3le of secur&n) &tself from various threats that could be destabili)in: %ithin the re:ion and beyond (e&:&, a re:ional conflict a4in to the !?? s 1al4an %ars*, lac4s capacity for :lobal security missions in %hich 3&+& leaders mi:ht %ant Guropean participation, and is vulnerable to the influence of outside risin: po%ers& 7hat about the other parts of Gurasia %here t(e >nited States has a su3stant&al m&l&tar' presence H @e)ar%&n) t(e M&%%le -ast, the balance be:ins to s%in: to%ard pessimists concerned that states currently bac4ed by 7ashin:tonJ notably IsraelF -)'ptF an% Sau%& Ara3&aJm&)(t ta4e actions upon 3&+& retrenchment that %ould &ntens&f' secur&t' %&lemmas& And concernin: -ast As&aF pess&m&sm re:ardin: the re:ion8s prospects

Nuclear War MICHIGAN 7WS 2013 17*/221 %ithout the American pacifier &s pronounce%& Ar:uably the principal concern e5pressed by area e5perts is that Japan an% Sout( Borea are l&#el' to o3ta&n a nuclear capac&t' an% increase their military commitments, %hich could sto#e a %esta3&l&9&n) react&on from C(&na& Ct is notable that durin: the 2old 7ar, both +outh >orea and 9ai%an moved to obtain a nuclear %eapons
capacity and %ere only constrained from doin: so by astill(en:a:ed 3nited +tates& ED 9he second body of scholarship castin: doubt on the bet on defensive realism8s san:uine portrayal is all of the research that undermines its conception of state preferences& 6efensive realism8s optimism about %hat %ould happen if the 3nited +tates retrenched is very much dependent on itsparticularJand hi:hly restrictiveJassumption about state preferencesR once %e rela5 this assumption, then much of its basis for optimism vanishes& +pecifically, the prediction of post(American tranMuility throu:hout Gurasia rests on the assumption that security is the only relevant state preference, %ith security defined narro%ly in terms of protection from violent e5ternal attac4s on the homeland& 3nder that assumption, the security problem is lar:ely solved as soon as offense and defense are clearly distin:uishable, and offense is e5tremely e5pensive relative to defense& 1ur:eonin: researc(

across the social and other sciences, ho%ever, un%erm&nes t(at core assumpt&on# states (a+e preferences not only for security but also for prest&)eF statusF an% other aims, and they en)a)e &n tra%e2offs amon: the various ob'ectives& EF Cn addition, they define security not 'ust in terms of territorial protection but in vie% of many and varied milieu :oals & Ct follo%s that even states t(at are relatively secure may nevertheless en)a)e &n hi:hly compet&t&+e 3e(a+&or& Gmpirical studies sho% that this is indeed sometimes the case& EE Cn sum, a bet on a beni:n postretrenchment Gurasia is a bet that leaders of ma'or countries %ill never allo% these nonsecurity preferences to influence their strate:ic choices& 9o the de:ree that these bodies of scholarly 4no%led:e have predictive levera:e, 3&+& retrenc(ment "oul% result &n a si:nificant %eter&orat&on &n t(e secur&t' en+&ronment &n at least some of the %orld8s #e' re)&ons& 7e have already mentioned the third, even more alarmin: body of scholarship& Offensive realism predicts that the "&t(%ra"al of the American pacifier "&ll '&el% either a competitive re:ional multipolarity complete "&t( associated insecurity, arms racin:, crisis instability, nuclear proliferationF and the li4e, or bids for re:ional he:emony, %hich may be 3e'on% t(e capac&t' of local )reat po"ers to conta&n (and %hich in any case %ould :enerate intensely competitive behavior, possibly &nclu%&n) re:ional :reat po%er %ar*&

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222A, Warm&n)
Mult&lateral&sm can7t sol+e "arm&n) consumpt&on an% fun%amental %&fferences 3et"een countr&es Hel% et alF 13 /aster of 3niversity 2olle:e and Professor of Politics and Cnternational -elations, at the 3niversity of 6urham, and 6irector of Polity Press and =eneral Gditor of =lobal Policy (6avid, =ridloc4# the :ro%in: brea4do%n of :lobal cooperation, Pro,uest, D$2@$2 !", http#$$search&proMuest&com&pro5y&lib&umich&edu$docvie%$!"DD! D !F* $$ /+
2limate chan:e =ridloc4

e5ists across a ran:e of different areas in :lobal :overnance today, from security arran:ements to trade and finance& 9his dynamic is, ar:uably, most evident in the realm of climate chan:e& 9he diffusion of industrial production across the %orld((a process enabled by economic :lobali)ation((has created a situation in %hich the basic consumption of each individual directly affects the life chances of every other individual on the planet, as %ell as the life chances of future :enerations & 9his is a po%erful and entirely ne% form of :lobal interdependence& 1luntly put, the future of our civili)ation depends on our ability to cooperate across borders& And yet, despite t%enty years of multilateral ne:otiations under the 30, a :lobal deal on climate chan:e miti:ation or adaptation remains elusive, %ith differences bet%een developed countries, %hich have caused the problem, and developin: countries, %hich %ill drive future emissions, formin: the core barrier to pro:ress& 3nless %e overcome :ridloc4 in climate
ne:otiations, as in other issue areas, %e %ill be unable to continue to en'oy the peace and prosperity %e have inherited from the post%ar order&

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Nanotec(
No e+&%ence to support t(at nanotec(nolo)' &s %an)erous t(reats are e1a))erate% BaplanF 7/15 Kab Fello%, Gdmond J& +afra 2enter for Gthics, ;arvard 3niversity (+heila, 0anotechnolo:y innovation hi:h, but ^playin: catch(up8 on health and safety, American 3niversity +chool of 2ommunication, E$!D$!", http#$$investi:ativereportin:%or4shop&or:$investi:ations$nanotechnolo:y(harmful(or( beni:n$story$nanotech(health(safety$*$$+P Qincent 2aprio, e5ecutive director of the 0ano1usiness 2ommerciali)ation Association, e5pressed dismay that the GPA has had trouble 4eepin: up %ith the field J %hich is surprisin: considerin: his or:ani)ation8s members have not been supplyin: the data& C do research for our :overnment and for GPA, he said& 9he GPA uses me to do %or4& 9hey %ill have me, confidentially, do research on say, the use of the science of nanotechnolo:y, as it relates to %ater technolo:y products& &&& Our :overnment %ill call me and say, ^Qince, %e need research on, could you tell us 2 private sector companies and %hat their utili)ation of nano is and %hat the products areH 9hey don8t 4no% that& Ct blo%s your mind& 2aprio and 1er:eson both contend that nanotechnolo:y poses no safety ha)ards& 7e all tend to circle bac4 to there8s no evidence, no reason, no empirical basis to believe there is any threat posed, 1er:eson said&

Nanotec(nolo)' &s safe 3enef&ts out"e&)( t(e potent&al r&s#s BostarelosF 7/3 Professor of 0anomedocine, 3niversity of /anchester (>ostas, Cs nanotechnolo:y safeH =uardian, E$"$!", http#$$%%%&:uardian&co&u4$science$small(%orld$2 !"$'ul$ "$is(nanotechnolo:y(safe*$$+P Ct is the famous ris4(benefit balance that clinical practice is based on& 7hen a patient %al4s into the clinic %ith severe patholo:ical symptoms or has been dia:nosed %ith a mali:nancy, the ris4 of 4illin: healthy cells and collateral dama:e is immediately balanced by the benefit of eradicatin: the tumour& 9his is the reality that a lot of my collea:ues in to5icolo:y (usually environmental or occupational health* for:et or i:nore %hen they consider nanotechnolo:y in medicine& 9his is %hy almost every time C :ive a lecture on the %ays %e are developin: carbon nanotechnolo:ies for the treatment of stro4e or Par4insonAs disease there are people in the audience %ho %ill vehemently criticise the technolo:ies C describe as <unsafeA, maybe even <daft< or <self( indul:ent<& /ore than a decade a:o a very e5perienced clinician told me# <>ostas, %ater can be an into5icant, if you so %ish to use and see it that %ay&< 9hat statement has resonated so vividly %ith me that since then C have tried many times to ans%er the Muestion# <is %ater safeH< 7ell, the inhalation of e5cessive amounts of %ater can 4ill us& Ct is called dro%nin:& 9he ris4 of dro%nin: stands very hi:h, typically in the 3> at @D deaths per year& Also, e5cessive oral inta4e of %ater can lead to %ater into5ication& Cndeed, a medical condition 4no%n as dilutional hyponatremia results from drin4in: e5cessive amounts of %ater and can lead to brain dama:e and stro4e& +o is %ater to5icH +urely it is not <safe<& +hould %e ban or heavily re:ulate shippin: or s%immin: or puntin: then, because the ris4 of dro%nin: increases dramatically %hen on %ater& +hould %e re:ulate the accessibility of %ater in our homes, because it can potentially 4illH 7hat if %e then try to e5trapolate about the safety of carbon nanofibres in our tennis rac4ets and bicycle framesH ;o% to5ic are theyH Are %e prepared to balance the ris4s from e5posure to such ne% nanomaterials a:ainst the benefits from useful products %e :et in returnH 0e5t time you hear or read about a nanoparticle bein: to5ic, dan:erous, unsafe, my advice is to i:nore the sensationalism and focus on the use to %hich that material or technolo:y %ill be put& Cf carbon or :old nanomaterials %ill be used in medicine, they %ill be sub'ect to a battery of tests and a series of re:ulatory inspections and approvals to ma5imise protection of the patient& 9hese %ill include clinical trials lastin: around a decade to determine first and foremost the safety and efficacy of such technolo:ies, so you can rest assured that most problems %ill become apparent& No ne)at&+e effects from nanotec(nolo)' t(e&r e+&%ence &s 3ase% on &naccurate stu%&es o(nsonF 7 9echnolo:y Gditor, GG 9imes (-& 2olin, +cientist claims nanotech threat is e5a::erated, GG 9imes, "$2E, http#$$%%%&eetimes&com$document&aspHdocLidS!!FDFFD*$$+P

Nuclear War MICHIGAN 7WS 2013 174/221 PO-9KA06, Ore& J 0anotechnolo:yAs critics have he%n to speculation by +un /icrosystems co(founder 1ill Joy that runa%ay nanobots could consume the planetAs natural resources, and to studies su::estin: that some nanoparticles, if allo%ed to accumulate in :round%ater, could stunt plant :ro%th& 0o% a scientist at Purdue 3niversity Muestions nanotechnolo:yAs threat in a study that claims to find certain manufactured nanoparticles have no ne:ative effects on soil& -on 9urco, a Purdue 3niversity soil and environmental microbiolo:ist, %ill publish his findin:s in the April !D issue of Gnvironmental +cience and 9echnolo:y& 9urco and collea:ues claim that neither dry nor %ater(based forms of buc4minsterfullerenesJcarbon nanoparticles containin: only tens to hundreds of atoms called buc4yballsJhave ill effects on soil or the microor:anisms it contains& 1uc4yballs are named after architect 1uc4minster Fuller, inventor of the :eodesic dome (the nanoparticles evo4e that structureAs profile*& 9hey %ere first synthesi)ed in a -ice 3niversity lab by -obert 2url, ;arold >roto and -ichard +malley in !?BD, for %hich they %ere a%arded the 0obel Pri)e in !??F& After the -ice 3niversity discovery, buc4yballs %ere also discovered to occur in nature, for instance in a meteorite from /ars that landed in !?F?& Prior to the -ice 3niversity discovery,< 1efore that, only t%o forms of carbonJ:raphite and diamond J%ere 4no%n& 9oday buc4yballs, %hich are ! to !, times stron:er than steel and have a hollo% core that can be filled %ith chemicals, are mass(produced %orld%ide& 9he nanoparticles 9urco tested are already in use in coatin:s that ma4e fabrics stainproof and sports eMuipment more durable, and as conduits for dru:s and biolo:ical mar4ers& Cn electronics, Muantum dots use nanoparticles to confine electrons in cavities smaller than their natural %avelen:ths& +ome have ar:ued that %ide use of such structures %ill result in the nanoparticlesA accumulatin: in the natural environment, %ith potentially ne:ative results& 9urco sou:ht to test that speculation by dosin: soil samples from %or4in: farms %ith different levels of nanoparticles, then measurin: the effect on the microor:anisms in the soil that brea4 do%n or:anic compounds& 9he tests, conducted at the Purdue 3niversity A:riculture -esearch and Gducation 2enter over a si5(month period, sho%ed no adverse impact on the soil, even at relatively hi:h concentrations, of !, parts per million& 2arbon dio5ide levels, soil respiration and the si)e and composition of soil bacteria communities sho%ed no ill effects, accordin: to 9urcoAs study& ;e notes that previous studies, %hich turned up problems in soil e5posed to nanoparticles, %ere conducted in laboratories& <Others did their studies in a purified culture,< 9urco said& <Pou canAt loo4 at the effects of manufactured nanoparticles in isolation& Pou have to put them in a natural environment&< No &mpact to nanotec(nolo)' re)ulat&on sol+es @a"sternF 7 /ember, 0anotechnolo:y Advisory 1oard, Kifeboat Foundation and +enior Associate, Foresi:ht 0anotech Cnstitute (-oc4y, 0anotech threat e5a::erated, 0anoscale +cience, 0anotechnolo:ies, and /olecular /anufacturin:, "$2E, http#$$nanoscale(materials(and( nanotechnolo:&blo:spot&com$2 E$ "$nanotech(threat(e5a::erated&html*$$+P -e:ardin: re:ulation, a Muote from 2hris Anderson (editor in chief of 7ired ma:a)ine* comes to mind# <7hen the 3nited +tates bans stem(cell research, it doesnAt mean the end of stem(cell researchR it 'ust means that the %or4 :ets done else%here, includin: 2hina or Cndia, %here the scientists and technolo:y are nearly as :ood but the re:ulations are looser& 9oo much re:ulation and the science :oes feralR too little and it may run %ild at home&< ;o% do you achieve a balanceH C li4e %hat +onia Arrison (6irector of 9echnolo:y +tudies, Pacific -esearch Cnstitute* says# Nmodest re:ulation, civilian research, and an emphasis on self(re:ulation and responsible professional culture& Cn an article titled 2an 0anotech 1e -e:ulatedH (2* and in response to the Muestion 7ill fair re:ulation of a field as comple5 as nanotechnolo:y be possible %ithout a radical ne% approachH -ichard 6enison of Gnvironmental 6efense responded %ith# 7eAve dealt %ith some pretty tou:h issues in re:ulation and le:islation, and C donAt 4no% if nano is so novel or so uniMue that itAs :oin: to reMuire a %hole ne% approach& 7e understand the basics of assessin: ha)ard& 7e understand the basics of assessin: e5posure and miti:atin: e5posure& 9hose need to be tailored and adapted to the characteristics of nanomaterials, but C donAt 4no% that %eAre tal4in: about anythin: much more radical than that& C8ll buy that& ,(e&r scenar&o &s sc&ence f&ct&on nanotec( &s eas&l' controlle% an% not (armful C@NF 6 (2enter for -esponsible 0anotechnolo:y, Keadin: nanotech e5perts put A:rey :ooA in perspective, F$?, http#$$%%%&crnano&or:$P-(COP&htm*$$+P

Nuclear War MICHIGAN 7WS 2013 1?0/221 2ontrary to previous understandin:, self(replication is unnecessary for buildin: an efficient and effective molecular manufacturin: system& Cnstead of buildin: lots of tiny, comple5, free(floatin: robots to manufacture products, it %ill be more practical to use simple robot arms inside des4top(si)e factories& A robot arm removed from such a factory %ould be as inert as a li:ht bulb pulled from its soc4et& 9he factory as a %hole %ould be no more mobile than a des4top printer and %ould reMuire a supply of purified ra% materials to build anythin:& An obsession %ith obsolete science(fiction ima:es of s%arms of replicatin: nanobu:s has diverted attention from the real issues raised by the comin: revolution in molecular nanotechnolo:ies, said 6re5ler& 7e need to focus on the issues that matterJho% to deal %ith these po%erful ne% capabilities in a competitive %orld& /i4e 9reder, G5ecutive 6irector of 2-0, said, 7e hope that this article %ill advance the discussion of the actual implications of molecular manufacturin:& 9here is no need for panic, but there are ur:ent concerns that must be addressed before the technolo:y arrives&

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Nort( Borea
Status 8uo sol+es2 >S "on7t allo" &tF Non2!rol&ferat&on ,reat' an% NA,. ta#&n) act&on no" $&rsel an% Ne3e(a' 6/23 7riters for -euters (2 !"& -obert& +tephanie& 7riters for -euters& 3+ -e'ects 0orth >orean 6emand
for 0uclear +tatus http#$$%%%&reuters&com$article$2 !"$ @$2"$us(4orea(north(id3+1-G?"/ "-2 !" @2"*$$QP

9he 3nited +tates s%iftly re'ected Pyon:yan:As claim of nuclear status, %hile 0A9O forei:n ministers condemned its pursuit of ballistic missile and nuclear %eapons pro:rams and called for <credible< tal4s to be held on denucleari)ation& <0orth >oreaAs demand to be reco:ni)ed as a nuclear %eapons state is neither realistic nor acceptable,< 9homas 2ountryman, 3&+& Assistant +ecretary for Cnternational +ecurity and 0on(Proliferation, told -euters in =eneva& 2ountryman, %ho is headin: the 3&+& dele:ation to t%o(%ee4 tal4s on the nuclear 0on(Proliferation 9reaty (0P9*, told reporters on /onday# <Ct is important that the %orld respond calmly but deliberately %ithout chan:in: our emphasis that the :oal of the %orld to %hich 0orth >orea is committed is a denucleari)ed >orean peninsula& <And the more states that ma4e that clear, the :reater the chance %e have of arrivin: at e5actly that :oal,< he said& A 7hite
;ouse spo4esman said this month 0orth >orea %ould need to sho% it %as serious about abandonin: its nuclear ambitions for tal4s to be meanin:ful& Cn 1russels, 0A9O forei:n ministers issued a statement sayin: that 0orth >oreaAs <provocative actions< violated 3&0&
+ecurity 2ouncil resolutions, undermined re:ional stability and 'eopardi)ed prospects for lastin: peace& < 7e

ur:e the 6P-> to refrain from further provocative acts,< the 0A9O ministers said, callin: for 0orth >orea to comply %ith +ecurity 2ouncil resolutions and return to the 0P9 from %hich the reclusive country announced its %ithdra%al in 2 "& .3ama "on7t f&rst str&#e Nort( Borea2 t(at7s :ust s&ll' Menon 6/16 Professor of Political +cience, 2ity 2olle:e of 0e% Por4$2ity 3niversity of 0e% Por4R 0on -esident +enior Fello% (2 !"& -a'an& 9he Atlantic 2ouncil& ;o% to ;andle 0orth >orea# 9he pa:eant of Proposals
http#$$%%%&huffin:tonpost&com$ra'an(menon$4orea(the(proposals(pa:eaLbL" B!@2@&html*$$QP Perhaps the most ori:inal idea comes from a professor in 9e5as, %hose advice is that the 3nited +tates

should launch a preventive stri4e on 0orth >oreaAs much(touted /usudan intermediate(ran:e ballistic missile before itAs launched (as many people in the 4no%, includin: +outh >oreaAs forei:n minister, e5pect it soon %ill be*& 9hatAs a :reat idea (( if your :oal is to start a %ar that mi:ht 4ill tens of thousands of people on the >orean peninsula and its environs& Any si:ns that the Obama administration is even plannin: to do somethin: so rec4less %ould so% panic in +outh >orea and Japan, AmericaAs t%o principal allies in 0ortheast Asia, and have lon:(term, and %holly adverse, effects on its partnership %ith both countries& 7hat +eoul and 9o4yo see4 from 7ashin:ton is steadiness, not behavior inspired by >im Jon:(un& No Borean "ar ,a'lor 6/* (2 !"& 7ar %ith 0orth >orea# >im Jon:(3n is 0ot a 9hreat 6espite ;a%4ish 3+ -hetoric
http#$$%%%&policymic&com$articles$"2@FD$%ar(%ith(north(4orea(4im('on:(un(is(not(a(threat(despite(ha%4ish(u(s(rhetoric*$$QP 9ensions in the >orean peninsula are dan:erously hi:h& 0orth >orean dictator >im Jon:(un has made multiple

threats, the 3&+& is respondin: by beefin: up its military presence, and even 2hina is mobili)in: troops near the 0orth >orea border& 7ith %ar, and the possibility of an accident or mista4e, a serious possibility, this reiterates the case that the 3&+& should stop meddlin: and intervenin: in >orea and use diplomacy instead& 9he ha%4ish response by the Penta:on in >orea is only addin: to the tension and decreasin: the chances of peace& Over the past
fe% %ee4s, the 3&+& has ran multiple %ar :ames near the >orean peninsula %ith nuclear(capable 1(D2 strate:ic heavy bombers and 1(2 stealth bombers and has even sent +pecial Forces into 0orth >orea& Fle5in: this type of muscle in a re:ion riddled %ith trip%ires for %ar is a dan:erous :amble& As Yu >e ar:ues in 6inhua -ee'ly, hostilities bet%een 0orth >orea and 7ashin:ton are the result of %hat >e calls <fra:ile relationship< bet%een the t%o :overnments, based on <mistrust, misunderstandin: and animosity&< AmericaAs <punishment(heavy approach< in dealin: %ith

Pyon:yan: has helped fuel this crisis& Pyon:yan: issued its <state of %ar< a:ainst +outh >orea in direct response to the aforementioned 3&+&(+outh >orea %ar :ames& -ounds after rounds of economic sanctions by the 3&+& have further isolated 0orth >orea& 9his has bac4ed 0orth >orea into a corner and forced it to resort to desperation in attemptin: to defend itself, includin: the pursuance of lon:(ran:e missile capabilities& 7hile 7ashin:ton is surroundin: 0orth >orea, runnin: military e5ercises, and imposin: sanctions, 0orth >orea really has absolutely no means of carryin: out the ha%4ish rhetoric Jon:(3n is currently employin:& 0orth >orea lac4s the technolo:y to stri4e =uam or ;a%aii, let alone the mainland 3&+& Gven the nei:hborin: +outh >orean capital residents of +eoul are remainin: calm, seein: 0orth >oreaAs threats for %hat they are# empty threats aimed at :ettin: food and aid pac4a:es and ultimately a peace treaty %ith the 3&+& Cf borderin: +outh >orea isnAt %orried, %hy is the
3&+&H As C ar:ued last %ee4 for "olicyMic, part of it li4ely has to do %ith President Obama has been implementin: his <Asia pivot< and militari)in: the Pacific& Also, %henever the %ar drums are beatin:, one %ill never :o bro4e bettin: on our military(industrial(comple5& 9he past t%o 3&+& administrations have been %arnin: about the supposed threat 0orth >orea poses, %hich has coincided %ith increased spendin: for missile defense systems alon: the

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%estern 3&+& 9han4fully, these missile

MICHIGAN 7WS 2013

defense systems are :overnment pro:rams, so they are lau:hably inefficient and simply donAt %or4& And since the 0orth >orean threat isnAt real, they pretty much cancel each other out& 9he only practical %ay to avoid a disastrous %ar and increase the chances of lon:(term peace is to build trust, for the 3&+& to the stop the saber(rattlin:, sit do%n %ith 2hina and other countries in the re:ions, and use some diplomacy for a chan:e& 1esides, %hatAs the alternativeH 0uclear %arH AmericaAs political leaders may be %ell(dressed criminals, but they arenAt foolishR 'ust li4e the 0orth >orean re:ime, they are nuclear(armed and interested in self(preservation& 9his may ironically be the reason that %ar and military confrontation %ill be avoided and cooler heads %ill prevail& ,(e D&rector of Nat&onal Intell&)ence a)rees no "ar &s com&n) ,@NS 13 Muotin: director of national intelli:ence (9op Cntelli:ence 2hief# 0o Gvidence 0orth >orea 7ill +tri4e, 9al4 -adio 0e%s +ervice, @(!!(2 !", http#$$%%%&tal4radione%s&com$con:ress$2 !"$ @$!!$top( intelli:ence(chief(no(evidence(north(4orea(%ill(stri4e&htmlO&3fF!t0>si+o*$$16+ 60C James 2lapper said he thin4s Jon: 3n is more interested in attractin: international attention then usin: actual force a:ainst another nation& C don8t thin4 he has much of an end:ame e5cept to elicit reco:nition from the %orldNof 0orth >orea as a nuclear po%er, 2lapper said durin: a hearin: held by a ;ouse +elect 2ommittee on Cntelli:ence& 2lapper confirmed %hat several analysts have speculated for %ee4sR that Jon: 3n8s recent moves to reposition missiles and threaten nuclear stri4es a:ainst +outh >orea and 3&+& interests in the Pacific are :eared to%ard convincin: his military and his people, %ho are closed off to the rest of the %orld, that he is as commandin: a leader as his father, the late >im Jon: Cl& \9he threats are] desi:ned for both an internal and e5ternal audience to sho% that he8s formally in control in 0orth >orea, 2lapper said& Just this mornin:, 0orth >orea announced that it had raised a missile into firin: position& 9he intelli:ence chief, ho%ever, dismissed concerns from those %ho say they8ve never seen 0orth >orea ta4e such belli:erent actions& 2lapper said he8s %itnessed hi:her tension caused by the 0orth >orean re:ime in the past, and that Jon: 3n8s recent behavior is nothin: more than a lot of rhetoric&

-1perts anal's&s conclu%es no "ar &s em&nent Cl&ffor% 13 ( 2oast daily contributor (>ate, 2oast political e5pert says ma'or 0orth >orea %ar unli4ely, +ushine 2oast 6aily, @(!!(2 !", http#$$%%%&sunshinecoastdaily&com&au$ne%s$academic(says(ma'or(4orean( %ar(unli4ely$!B2DF@B$*$$16+ A+ C09G-0A9CO0AK politicians and pundits paint a blea4 picture of the situation in 0orth >orea, a +unshine 2oast university lecturer and e5pert in international politics says a <ma'or %ar< is unli4ely& Accordin: to media reports, +outh >orea raised its military %atch alert to <vital threat< yesterday, after indications that 0orth >orea mi:ht be preparin: t%o mid(ran:e missiles for imminent launch from its east coast& 9he threat follo%s an initial %arnin: from the 0orth on 9uesday that the peninsula %as headed for <thermo(nuclear< %ar and forei:ners should consider leavin: +outh >orea& 3niversity of the +unshine 2oast lecturer John Jan)e4ovic said althou:h the situation %as unsettlin:, 0orth >orea had been 4no%n to ma4e similar threats in the past& <+ince assumin: po%er in 2 !!, >im Jon:(un has sho%n no basic si:ns of preparin: his army for %ar,< 6r Jan)e4ovic said& <7hat is unusual and disturbin: is 0orth >oreaAs decision to close the >aeson: Cndustrial Par4, %hich earns [2 billion a year in trade for the state and allo%ed hundreds of +outh >oreans to return home& <Ct appears that 0orth >orea has certainly ta4en a more provocative stance than ever before, but at this sta:e, C thin4 they are still 'ust threatenin: to fle5 their muscles, rather than ta4e action&< 6r Jan)e4ovic said he had been 4eepin: daily tabs on the conflict since AmericaAs decision to send %arships to the %aters off the >orean peninsula, %hich he said could have made the situation %orse& <9he %ar :ames or military e5ercises bet%een America and +outh >orea %ould certainly not be helpin: the situation,< he said& <C donAt thin4 us here, in Australia, have anythin: to %orry about as lon: as our ties are stren:thened %ith 2hina, %ho have been encoura:ed to stren:then sanctions %ith 0orth >orea& <9he public here are very interested in this story&<

Nuclear War MICHIGAN 7WS 2013 1?3/221 Nort( Borea r(etor&c means not(&n) t(e' "oul% lose an% confl&ct emp&r&call' %oesn7t escalate or %ra" &n Co1 an% Murra' 6221 Professor of Political +cience at the +chool of Advanced /ilitary +tudies, Fort Keaven%orth, >ansasR Professor of political science at 3niversity of Alberta, Ph&6 (6an =& and -obert 7&, 2ra)y, Crrational, or 3nder PressureH 7hy 7ar %ith 0orth >orea is 3nli4ely, e(international relations, @(2!( 2 !", http#$$%%%&e(ir&info$2 !"$ @$2!$cra)y(irrational(or(under(pressure(%hy(%ar(%ith(north(4orea(is( unli4ely$*$$16+ 9here is little doubt that %hen discussin: the on:oin: tension on the >orean Peninsula, one can easily ma4e the claim that ne%ly elevated 0orth >orean leader >im Jon:(un is playin: a dan:erous :ame& Cnflammatory rhetoric about annihilatin: +outh >orea, Japan, the 3nited +tates and every other enemy of the notoriously closed 0orth >orean state, the promise of on:oin: missile tests, and troop mobili)ations have led pundits to ar:ue that %ar is becomin: more and more li4ely& 9here is certainly cause for concern %hen tensions continue to increase as the tit(for(tat :ame bet%een the 0orth >orean re:ime and the 3nited +tates :oes on, but %e contend %ar is still unli4ely unless continued misperceptions persist& As a ne% and youn: leader, >im Jon:(un is %or4in: throu:h a process of tryin: to appease military hardliners that may Muestion his ability to lead and 'ust ho% far he %ill :o to stand up to the 3nited +tates& 9he cult of personality in 0orth >orea can only be sustained if the divine claims about the abilities of the leader persist, and so it should come as little surprise that promises of %orld destruction have become louder and louder& Further, the nuclear variable is a constant source of fear for states, as is the case %henever a ne% member of the nuclear club emer:es, particularly one %ith a reputation of bein: irrational accordin: to %estern political standards& Gven so, by loo4in: closely at the situation, it is difficult to :enuinely believe that %ar is imminent& 9o date, 0orth >orea has not successfully tested a model of delivery that %ould see a nuclear %eapon capable of reachin: 3+ territory, includin: =uam and$or ;a%aii& A roc4et test is a far cry from an armed nuclear %arhead attached to the roc4et& /ovin: beyond the technolo:ical limitations, there is no evidence to date that %ould su::est >im Jon:(un is ready or %illin: to commit an entirely irrational act of preemptive stri4es a:ainst the 3nited +tates or its allies& Obtainin: a nuclear %eapon does not automatically si:nal that a state %ill become an a::ressor& Cn fact, Muite the opposite is true, as the lo:ic of /utual Assured 6estruction (or, in this case, assured destruction of 0orth >orea* still applies and thou:h %e mi:ht Muestion the sanity of a leader or state apparatus, rationality calculations are an entirely different thin:& 9he same causal lo:ic can be applied to Cran, or any other nuclear state& 7antin: a bomb, developin: a bomb, and havin: a bomb does not mean the use of a bomb& Cf it did, it is probable the %orld %ould have seen nuclear %ar %ell before no%& 3nfortunately, narratives matter and since the dominant narrative currently is one of an irrational >im Jon:( un and loomin: %ar, the 3nited +tates and her allies are actin: as if %ar %ere imminent& Ct is %orth mentionin: that much of the escalation over recent %ee4s is the fault of the 3nited +tates, and not 0orth >orea %hich only serves to feed into the dominant narratives& Ct is not at all uniMue for the 6P-> to espouse ridiculous threats, but sta:in: 1(2 fly(overs only served to further embolden 0orth >orea8s claims, as the American :overnment si:naled to the %orld they %ere actually ta4in: the rhetoric seriously& 1esides 1(2 fly(overs, the 3nited +tates has postured itself in a far more %ar(li4e stance conductin: lar:e military e5ercises %ith their +outh >orean allies near the 0orth >orean border, movin: anti(ballistic missile systems to =uam, and movin: air and naval assets into the re:ion& 3nited +tates Admiral +amuel Koc4lear has added %ei:ht to the irrationality ar:ument by declarin: that >im Jon:(un consolidated his po%er over the last year indicatin: that 3+ military leaders are interpretin: the a::ressiveness by the 0orth >orean leadership as irrational& 9he 2hinese :overnment, too, has si:naled it has become annoyed %ith the rhetoric and actions of the >im Jon:(un administration %hich may further isolate the re:ime& 7orse still, everyone seems to have for:otten recent history near the end of the >in: Jon:(il administration& 0ot only did >im Jon:(il saber rattle rhetorically, he actually en:a:ed in several hi:h(profile military acts that the +outh >orean :overnment could have 'ustifiably interpreted as acts of %ar& On 2F /arch 2 ! , a 0orth >orean submarine launched a torpedo attac4 a:ainst a +outh >orean 0aval military ship 4illin: @F +outh >orean sailors& Cn 0ovember 2 ! , the 0orth >orean military fired artillery shells at a remote military base on the island of Peonpyeon:& 9his attac4 4illed t%o +outh >orean soldiers and %ounded 2 others includin: three civilians& 0either heinous nor unprovo4ed attac4 led to %ar %hich may have, unfortunately, emboldened the 0orth >orean leadership& As recently as April 2 !2, 0orth >orea tested a lon:(ran:e missile& 7hile the missile launch ultimately failed after a short fli:ht, it %as 'ustifiably provocative nonetheless&

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-1&les conf&rm Nort( Borea structurall' can7t "a)e "ar A! 6217 (0orth >orea e5iles call %ar rhetoric <nonsense<, 21+ ne%s, @(!E(2 !", http#$$%%%&cbsne%s&com$B" !(2 2L!F2(DEDB D!$north(4orea(e5iles(call(%ar(rhetoric(nonsense$*$$16+ As4ed if there mi:ht be %ar, the @ ish %oman %ith the span:ly purple shirt lau:hed out loud& +he %aved her hands bac4 and forth, as if %his4in: a%ay a pes4y insect& +he fled 0orth >orea late last summer, pushin: her %ay at ni:ht throu:h the chest(deep %aters of the Amno4 -iver, follo%in: a :uide into 2hina and, eventually, to +outh >orea& 9he 'ourney cost her [D, , a fortune bac4 home& +he comes from a part of rural 0orth >orea %here electricity is a rarity, and the punishin: %inters seem to last forever& +he came to a city of t%o(story(tall 9Q screens that li:ht up the ni:ht, a city stal4ed by armies of financial analysts in %ell(tailored suits& 0o%, amid international fears that 0orth >orea may be preparin: for another missile test, and relentless over(the(top rhetoric from Pyon:yan: that it %ill destroy its enemies, she simply scoffs& 9he e5iles have seen life in both >oreas, and are unimpressed %ith %hat they left behind& <CtAs not even possible for 0orth >orea to have a %ar,< said the %oman, %ho spent years arran:in: blac4 mar4et deals for bron)e smu::led to 2hina& +he as4ed that her name and other identifyin: details not be used, to protect relatives still livin: in the 0orth& <9hey donAt have fuel& 9hey donAt have electricity,< she said& <Gven if they yell to the %orld that theyAll :o to %ar, itAs all 'ust tal4&< Forei:n analysts have lon: said that 0orth >oreaAs desperate shorta:es are, in part, because Pyon:yan: channels so much of its resources to the military and into %eapons development& 1ut in a country %here many soldiers have to spend months every year %or4in: on farms or construction pro'ects, and %here bicycles remain a status symbol for most people, the e5iles say 0orth >orea is so poor and undeveloped that it 4no%s it %ould lose any fi:ht& And lose badly& 0orth >oreaAs most recent round of over(the(top threats, includin: %arnin:s of pre(emptive nuclear attac4s on the 3nited +tates, come in the %a4e of 3&0& sanctions approved after Pyon:yan:As February nuclear test& 9hey also come durin: annual 3&+&(+outh >orea military maneuvers, %hich Pyon:yan: has lon: seen as a provocation& For %ee4s, forei:n :overnments and analysts have been debatin: Pyon:yan:As threats# Cs %ar loomin:H Are the threats nothin: but theaterR a search for attention and forei:n aidH Cs 0orth >oreaAs ne% youn: leader, >im Jon: 3n, more dan:erous than his fatherH Cn +outh >oreaAs small community of 0orth >orean e5iles, a :roup that totals about 2@, people, the ans%ers to those Muestions come Muic4ly& <CtAs all nonsense,< said 0am(su ;an, %ho fled 0orth >orea %hen he %as 2 years old, and no% runs a +eoul(based activist :roup that teaches youn: +outh >oreans about life in the 0orth& >im <is a little man %ith no accomplishments,< said the nephe% of the smu::ler, a former soldier %ho also escaped last year& <;eAs 'ust tryin: to sho% the %orld ho% important he is&< <CAm not %orried at all< about %ar, said a former 0orth >orean miner, a friendly man %ith a mop of uncombed hair %ho no% runs a small +eoul store& <7e all 4no% if %ar brea4s out, 0orth >orea %ill collapse&< /i5ed %ith that disdain, thou:h, is somethin: you may not e5pect from people %ho ris4ed their lives, and often left their families, to reach +outh >orea# a lin:erin: attachment to the nation they abandoned& </y heart is al%ays %ith 0orth >orea< said the former smu::ler& <Gven today&< Cn part, that is nostal:ia for their homeland& 1ut it so reflects the difficulty of life in +outh >orea for most refu:ees, %ho are commonly 4no%n here as <defectors&<

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@uss&an -1pans&on
No "ar e+en &f e1pans&on occurs HoffmanF 12 2ontributin: editor to Forei:n Policy and the author of 9he 6ead ;and# 9he 3ntold +tory of the 2old 7ar Arms -ace and Cts 6an:erous Ke:acy, %hich %on the 2 ! Pulit)er Pri)e for :eneral non(fiction (6avid G&, ;et, 1i: +pender, Forei:n Policy, ! $22, %%%&forei:npolicy&com$articles$2 !2$! $22$heyLbi:LspenderHpa:eSfull*$$QP 9oday, one2t(&r% of >LSL strate)&c forcesF &nclu%&n) almost all lan%23ase% m&ss&les an% some sea23ase%F are st&ll rea%' for a prompt launc(L ,(&s (as not c(an)e% s&nce t(e Col% War en%e%L ,(e launc(2rea%' alert
t&me &s four m&nutes from t(e moment t(e pres&%ent )&+es t(e or%er for lan%23ase% m&ss&lesF an% a3out 12 m&nutes for su3mar&nesL .3amaNs nuclear posture re+&e" ac#no"le%)e% t(e nee% for more pres&%ent&al %ec&s&on t&me &n a cr&s&sF 3ut t(e alert posture "as left unc(an)e%L ,(e onl' reason t(e >n&te% States ma&nta&ns a (a&r2tr&))er posture to%a' &s 3ecause

@uss&a %oesL IC(&na &s not 3el&e+e% to #eep "eapons on launc(2rea%' alertLK Desp&te tens&ons t(at flare upF t(e >n&te% States an% @uss&a are no lon)er enem&esR t(e c(ance of nuclear "ar or surpr&se attac# &s nearl' 9eroL We tra%e &n eac( ot(erNs e8u&t' mar#etsL @uss&a (as t(e lar)est au%&ence of Aace3oo# users &n -uropeF an% &s open to t(e "orl% &n a "a' t(e So+&et >n&on ne+er "asL >S cooperat&on ensures @uss&an e1pans&on &s peaceful resol+&n) #e' &ssues Department of State 12, 9he 3nited +tates and -ussia# A /ultifaceted -elationship, 3&+& 6epartment of +tate, F(!B(2 !2, http#$$%%%&state&:ov$r$pa$prs$ps$2 !2$ F$!?"2 B&htm*$$16+ President Obama and his Administration have en:a:ed the =overnment of -ussia to pursue ob'ectives of common interest for the American and -ussian people& At the end of their meetin: at Kos 2abos on June !B, the Presidents issued a Joint +tatement hi:hli:htin: the stren:th of 3&+&(-ussian cooperation in areas includin: economic en:a:ement, nuclear security, re:ional conflicts, counterterrorism, counternarcotics, and the breadth of issues encompassed by the 1ilateral Presidential 2ommission&l 9he 1ilateral Presidential 2ommission# Perhaps the clearest e5pression of the breadth of the 3&+&(-ussia bilateral relationship can be found in the results of the 2! 7or4in: =roups of the 1ilateral Presidential 2ommission& For more information on the 1ilateral Presidential 2ommission8s accomplishments, please visit# l 9he 2 !2 Joint -eport by 2o(2hairs +ecretary 2linton and Forei:n /inister Kavrovl 2ooperation in Af:hanistan# 9he 3nited +tates and -ussia share a stron: interest in a peaceful, stable, and sustainable Af:hanistan, free of terrorism and ille:al narcotics& 9he 3nited +tates appreciates the si:nificant contribution to international security that has resulted from the arran:ements bet%een the 3nited +tates and -ussia bilaterally and throu:h 0A9O to support :round and air transit into and out of Af:hanistan& 9he 0A9O(-ussia 2ouncil ;elicopter /aintenance 9rust Fund to support Af:hanistan8s fleet of -ussian(built /i(!E and /i("D helicopters is another e5ample of our 'oint efforts to assist Af:hanistan& 9he 3nited +tates and -ussia continue to deepen and e5pand cooperation in areas such as counterterrorism and counternarcotics& For more information, please visit# l Fact +heet# 3&+&(-ussia 2ooperation on Af:hanistanl Gconomic 2ooperation# 9he 3nited +tates is %or4in: to e5pand bilateral investment and economic cooperation that can benefit both -ussia and the 3nited +tates& Over the past three years, the positive atmosphere in bilateral relations has led to e5panded economic cooperation bet%een our countries& Cn 2 !!, -ussia successfully completed its 79O accession ne:otiations, a process the 3nited +tates stron:ly supported& 9he President is no% %or4in: %ith 2on:ress to e5tend Permanent 0ormal 9rade -elations status to -ussia so that American firms can receive the full benefit of -ussia8s 79O accession& For more information, visit#l Fact +heet# 3&+&(-ussia Gconomic 2ooperationl 2ooperation on Gner:y and Gner:y Gfficiency# 9he 3nited +tates and -ussia have an e5tensive dialo:ue on ener:y and ener:y efficiency aimed at spurrin: innovation and stimulatin: the scientific development needed to address the :lobal ener:y challen:es of the 2!st century& 9he 3&+&(-ussia Gner:y 7or4in: =roup supports this dialo:ue and the deployment of clean(ener:y technolo:ies and services& 9his cooperation is also implemented throu:h a ran:e of activities includin: public(private partnerships, city(to(city pairin:s, trade missions, and university lin4s& For more information, visit#l Fact +heet# 3&+&(-ussian Gner:y and Gner:y Gfficiency 2ooperation l Protocol of Cntent on +mart 2ity 6evelopment 2ooperation l Protocol of Cntent on 2lean Gner:y 2ooperation in the -ussian Far Gast l 2ooperation on People(to(People 2ontacts# 9he ties that bind the American and -ussian peoples are :ro%in: and e5tend beyond :overnment(to(:overnment channels& +ome si:ns of this are the success of the American +easons cultural pro:ram in -ussia, the upcomin: -ussian +easons cultural pro:ram in the 3nited +tates, %hich %ill be part of the commemoration of the 2 th anniversary of -ussian settlement in Fort -oss,

Nuclear War MICHIGAN 7WS 2013 1?*/221 2alifornia, and a recent a:reement to e5pand academic and 'ournalism e5chan:es& 7e also %elcome pro:ress in brin:in: into force the 3&+&(-ussia a:reement on adoptions& For more information, visit# l Fact +heet# 3&+&( -ussia 2ooperation on People(to(People 2ontactsl 2ooperation on ;ealth# 9he 3nited +tates and -ussia continue to deepen cooperation to improve the health and %ell(bein: of both populations& A recently si:ned Protocol of Cntent %ill e5pand cooperation in preventin: and controllin: infectious and non(communicable diseases, includin: 'oint %or4 related to influen)a, ;CQ, and tobacco control& 7e also %elcome 3&+&(-ussia a:reement to cooperate on the :lobal fi:ht a:ainst malaria& For more information, visit# l Fact +heet# 3&+&( -ussia 2ooperation on ;ealthl Protocol of Cntent bet%een 262 and -ospotrebnad)or l 2ooperation on the Gnvironment# /ay 2" mar4ed the @ th anniversary of 3&+&(-ussia cooperation on the environment and natural resources, includin: %ildlife conservation and protected area mana:ement, %ildfire prevention, and pollution monitorin:& 9he 3nited +tates is partnerin: %ith -ussia under the 2limate and 2lean Air 2oalition to -educe +hort(Kived 2limate Pollutants, an initiative to reduce emissions of methane, blac4 carbon, and hydrofluorocarbons, %hich are collectively responsible for more than " I of current :lobal %armin: and have adverse implications for health, a:riculture, and the Arctic& 9he 3nited +tates and -ussia are collaboratin: to develop a %ildlife disease dia:nostics laboratory in the -ussian Far Gast to support conservation efforts for endan:ered ti:ers and leopards& Our shared interests and partnerships are e5emplified %ithin the Polar -e:ions and %ill be deepened throu:h a ne% /emorandum of 3nderstandin: on 2ooperation in Antarctica, as %ell as throu:h climate chan:e research and shared efforts in the 1erin: +trait re:ion %ith Alas4a 0atives and the indi:enous peoples of 2hu4ot4a& 7e also continue to ma4e pro:ress on fisheries conservation and mana:ement& For more information, visit#l Fact +heet# 3&+&(-ussia 2ooperation on the Gnvironment No Impact to @uss&an -1pans&on nuclear cooperat&on c(ec#s Har+e' 10 ( -esearch Associate at /onterey Cnstitute of Cnternational +tudies ( 2ole J&, 9he 3&+&(-ussian A:reement for Peaceful 0uclear 2ooperation, 09C, F(22(2 ! , http#$$%%%&nti&or:$analysis$articles$us( russian(peaceful(cooperation$*$$16+ 9he Obama administration re(submitted the 3&+&(-ussian a:reement for peaceful nuclear cooperation to 2on:ress on /ay ! , 2 ! & 9he a:reement, %hich %ould allo% the t%o countries to trade nuclear materials, technolo:y and services, %as ori:inally si:ned and submitted to 2on:ress for revie% in /ay 2 B& ;o%ever, follo%in: the Au:ust 2 B conflict bet%een -ussia and =eor:ia, the 3&+&(-ussian relationship deteriorated si:nificantlyR the 1ush administration %ithdre% the a:reement from 2on:ress on +eptember B of that year& 9he a:reement %ill automatically enter into force unless both houses of 2on:ress pass a resolution of disapproval %ithin ? le:islative days&l +ome members of 2on:ress have e5pressed displeasure %ith the a:reement, citin: -ussiaAs cooperation %ith Cran in the nuclear field& A resolution of disapproval has been introduced in the ;ouse, and is under consideration by the ;ouse Forei:n Affairs 2ommittee& l Cn a letter transmittin: the a:reement to 2on:ress, President Obama %rote that <the situation in =eor:ia need no lon:er be considered an obstacle to proceedin: %ith the proposed A:reementR and&&&the level and scope of 3&+&(-ussia cooperation on Cran are sufficient to 'ustify< the ne% submission&\!] Obama also %elcomed 'oint 3&+&(-ussian endeavors in the nuclear sphere, such as the 0e% +9A-9 treaty& +ince the resubmission of the a:reement, -ussia has also 'oined the 3nited +tates in adoptin: a fourth round of 30 sanctions a:ainst Cran&l As part of the submission, the administration provided a nuclear proliferation assessment statement (0PA+* to 2on:ress in classified and unclassified forms& 9hou:h the unclassified version is not secret, it is currently unavailable to the public& 9his brief %ill be updated once the unclassified 0PA+ is released& l 9erms of the A:reementl 9he proposed a:reement %ill allo% the t%o parties to cooperate in scientific research related to nuclear reactors and the nuclear fuel cycle, radioactive %aste handlin:, <nuclear industry and commerce,< and <shipments&&&of moderator material, nuclear material, technolo:ies and eMuipment, as %ell as services in the area of the nuclear fuel cycle&&&<\2] Cndeed, the a:reement states that not only is such activity permitted, but that the :overnments %ill <facilitate commercial relations< in such fields&\"]l 3nli4e 3&+& cooperation pacts %ith non(nuclear %eapon states, the 3&+&(-ussian a:reement does not allo% the parties to reMuire the return of transferred material in the event of a nuclear test, as reMuired by the !?D@ Atomic Gner:y Act&l ;o%ever, the a:reement does stipulate that any material or eMuipment transferred bet%een the parties, or any material produced throu:h the use of such imports <shall not be used&&&for any military purpose&<\@] Cn addition, all transferred nuclear material (and nuclear material derived from such imports* must be 4ept under CAGA safe:uards, includin: those provided by the more strin:ent Additional Protocol&\D] l Cn addition, no material transferred under the a:reement can be re(

Nuclear War MICHIGAN 7WS 2013 1?7/221 e5ported to another country, and must be physically protected at the level recommended by the CAGA&\F] 0uclear material can only be <altered in form or content< if the parties a:ree& Advance consent is :iven for conversion, enrichment to less than 2 percent uranium(2"D, and the fabrication of KG3 fuel, %hile the reprocessin: of spent fuel is not mentioned&\E] 2onversion is the process by %hich uranium he5afluoride is derived from yello%ca4e, a uranium concentrate po%der& 3ranium he5afluoride is :aseous under certain temperatures and pressures, and is the form of uranium used in the enrichment process& 3ranium enriched to less than 2 percent is not considered %eapons(usable& Advance consent for these processes is :iven since conversion and lo%(enrichment do not directly provide fissile material that can be used in a %eapon& Advance consent is not :iven for spent fuel reprocessin:, on the other hand, since reprocessin: can produce %eapons( usable plutonium&l Cf either party is found by the other to be in noncompliance %ith any of the a:reementAs provisions, includin: those related to safe:uards and physical security, the t%o countries are obli:ated to hold consultations to address the problem&\B] Cn the event that the dispute cannot be resolved, the a:reement can be temporarily suspended or permanently ended follo%in: one yearAs advance notice& Gven if the a:reement is terminated, CAGA safe:uards are reMuired to remain in effect over transferred nuclear material and related eMuipment&\?]l +ome potential economic :ains from the a:reement are already clear& Cn /ay 2 ?, for e5ample, three 3&+& companies si:ned contracts %ith a subsidiary of -ussiaAs Atomener:oprom, the state civil nuclear ener:y corporation, for the supply of -ussian lo%(enriched uranium from 2 !@ to 2 2 & 9he head of -ussiaAs nuclear ener:y re:ulator, +er:ei >iriyen4o, announced that the deals %ere %orth [! billion in total& \! ] 9he e5istin: !??" </e:atons(to(/e:a%atts< pro:ram throu:h %hich -ussia supplies the 3nited +tates %ith lo%(enriched uranium for use in po%er reactors is a separate a:reement bet%een the t%o :overnments& 3nder the terms of that a:reement, -ussia do%nblends ;G3 from decommissioned nuclear %arheads into KG3, %hich is then shipped to the 3nited +tates& 9he pro:ram accounts for appro5imately ! I of the electricity :eneration in the 3nited +tates&\!!]l Cn July 2 !, -ussian President Qladimir Putin si:ned into la% a bill that allo%s -ussia to import and store forei:n spent nuclear fuel& 9hou:h the bill %as controversial, -ussiaAs si)e, lo%(population density, and e5perience in nuclear industry ma4e it especially %ell eMuipped to serve as a destination for spent fuel& 7hile no state has yet ta4en advanta:e of this possibility, the business is potentially Muite lucrative ( many countries %ith nuclear industries are stru::lin: %ith the political and economic costs of mana:in: spent fuel, includin: Japan, +outh >orea, and 9ai%an& 7hen the -ussian :overnment proposed the import plan, it estimated that it could earn [! (2 billion from the importation of 2 , tons of spent fuel over ! years&\!2] 9he possible importation of forei:n spent fuel has not been %ell received by the -ussian public, and no discussion of -ussian importation of 3&+& spent fuel has be:un, althou:h it is permitted under the proposed a:reement&\!"] @uss&an e1pans&on &sn7t a t(reat an% ,urn &t &ncreases na+al cooperat&on Defense Statecraft 13 I-ussian 0aval G5pansion# /ilitary 9hreat or 6iplomatic OpportunityH, 6efense +tatecraft, "(2D(2 !", http#$$defensestatecraft&blo:spot&com$2 !"$ "$russian(naval(e5pansion(military( threat&html*$$16+ 9he hi:h seas are instrumental in facilitatin: international commerce, ho%ever the combination of sheer si)e, limited scope of policin: efforts, and less developed international :overnin: bodies as compared to land based commercial e5chan:e creates an environment %hich reMuires countries %ith :lobal economic interests to ta4e security into their o%n hands or other%ise rely upon close allies %ith a stron: naval capacity& l A period of sustained economic :ro%th be:innin: in the late !?? As has propelled -ussia to a level of :lobal economic relevance not e5perienced since prior to the collapse of the +oviet 3nion& As -ussiaAs international economic and political interests continue to e5pand, so too %ill its naval ambitions& +o far, the -ussian 0avy seems to be ta4in: a 2orbettian approach to its efforts of naval e5pansion, see4in: to secure sea lanes of commerce rather than positionin: itself to %in decisive battles a:ainst other naval po%ers& -ussiaAs recently announced permanent fleet in the /editerranean %ill consist of D(F ships (a combination of fri:ates, cruisers, and support ships*& 9hese ships are eMuipped %ith a variety of armaments to include anti(ship missiles, surface to air missiles, and anti(submarine munitions, ho%ever the si)e and composition of this small fleet is best suited for policin: vital sea lanes a:ainst malicious surface vessels threatenin: -ussian commercial frei:hters rather than see4in: decisive battle %ith competin: navies&l Cn an era of contractin: American naval presence, -ussia is see4in: to e5pand its influence around the %orld by reachin: out to former 2old 7ar allies to establish naval bases that %ill e5pand -ussian influence in +outh Gast Asia, Africa, and 0orth America& 2urrently, the only base outside of -ussian soverei:n territory is in 9artus, +yria, a facility %ith a Muestionable future :iven the on:oin: civil %ar in the host nation& -ussia has entered into tal4s %ith 2uba, Qietnam, and +eychelles (an

Nuclear War MICHIGAN 7WS 2013 1??/221 island off the east coast of Africa* about possibly establishin: naval facilities in each of these host nations that %ould effectively e5pand -ussian naval influence beyond its re:ionally focused capacity to a limited :lobal reach&l =iven the composition and limited scope of -ussian naval e5pansion, the American 0avy has little to fear in the form of a -ussian challen:e to its control of the seas& Furthermore, cooperative efforts bet%een the -ussian 0avy and the American 0avy in combatin: the common enemy of piracy and 'ointly respondin: to international crises and humanitarian assistance opportunities may create efficiencies for both navies that could relieve some of the added bud:etary pressures facin: the American 0avy as %ell as establish a common interest bet%een the t%o nations that could serve to repair relations that have so far deteriorated in the 2!st century&

@uss&a can7t e1pan% not a t(reat an% t(e&r e+&%ence &s all alarm&sm CarpenterF 0? (9ed =alen 2arpenter is vice president for defense and forei:n policy studies at the 2ato Cnstitute, +eptember 22, 2 B 7hat -ussia 7ants http#$$%%%&cato&or:$publications$commentary$%hat(russia(%ants*
9hat result illustrates the limits of /osco%8s po%er&

-ussia may be capable of establishin: a modest sphere of influence alon: its perimeter, but it does not have the stren:th to reconstitute the +oviet empire(much less pose an e5pansionist threat to the heart of Gurope as the 3++- did durin: the 2old 7ar& American opinion leaders need to curb their alarmism& /osco%8s conduct in =eor:ia may have been brutal, but it is not out of the norm for a :reat po%er to discipline an upstart small nei:hbor& 9here is no credible evidence that /osco% has massive e5pansionist impulses& And even if it did, -ussia lac4s the po%er to achieve such :oals & -ussia is not the +oviet 3nion, and it certainly is not the eMuivalent of 0a)i =ermany& 3&+& policyma4ers need to ta4e a deep breath, accept that -ussia has returned to the ran4s of ma'or po%ers, and reali)e that 7ashin:ton can no lon:er i:nore, much less trample on, core -ussian interests& 9he sooner they ma4e that course correction, the better& @uss&an e1pans&on &s not a t(reat Nato an% all&ances c(ec# escalat&on onl' r&s# t(at %en'&n) e1pans&on causes "ar -lan%F 0? (Cvan Gland is +enior Fello% and 6irector of the 2enter on Peace T Kiberty at 9he Cndependent Cnstitute, 0ovember ", 2 BCs a
-esur:ent -ussia a 9hreat to the 3nited +tatesH, http#$$%%%&independent&or:$ne%sroom$article&aspHidS2"F"*

3&+& analysts say, ho%ever, that increased military spendin: %ould allo% -ussia to have more influence over nations in its near abroad and Gastern Gurope& Of course, throu:hout history, small countries livin: in the shado% of lar:er po%ers have had to ma4e political, diplomatic, and economic ad'ustments to suit the lar:er po%er& Cncreased -ussian influence in this sphere, ho%ever, should not necessarily threaten the security of the fara%ay 3nited +tates & Ct does only because the 3nited +tates has defined its security as reMuirin: intrusions into -ussia8s traditional sphere of influence& 1y e5pandin: 0A9O into Gastern Gurope and the former +oviet 3nion , the 3nited +tates has :uaranteed the security of these allied countries a:ainst a nuclear(armed po%er, in the %orst case, by sacrificin: its cities in a nuclear %ar & Providin: this 4ind of :uarantee for these non(strate:ic countries is not in the 3&+& vital interest& 6enyin: -ussia the sphere of influence in nearby areas traditionally en'oyed by :reat po%ers (for e5ample, the 3&+& uses the /onroe 6octrine to police the 7estern ;emisphere* %ill only lead to unnecessary 3&+&(-ussian tension and possibly even cataclysmic %ar& @uss&a cant pursue e1pans&on&st pol&c&es &nternal "ea#ness Co(en T07 \Ariel, Ph&6&, +enior -esearch Fello% in -ussian and Gurasian +tudies and Cnternational Gner:y +ecurity in the 6ou:las and +arah
Allison 2enter for Forei:n Policy +tudies& 0ovember !?, 2 E& 6omestic Factors 6rivin: -ussiaAs Forei:n Policy& http#$$%%%&herita:e&or:$-esearch$-ussiaandGurasia$b:2 B@&cfm]

-ussiaAs forei:n policy assertiveness, funded by revenues from natural resources, ma4es many believe that a ne% ener:y empire is on the rise& 9he country today is ruled by post(+oviet security and military elites that have internali)ed the 'in:oistic values of the -ussian Gmpire and the +oviet 3nion& 9hese elites vie% the outside %orld almost e5clusively throu:h the lens of economic and military mi:ht& 9hey also use forei:n policy as a tool to buttress domestic support and to foster a perception that -ussia is surrounded by enemies at a time %hen its democratic le:itimacy is deterioratin:& 6espite its pro'ected mi:ht, the >remlin is not capable of dealin: %ith some of -ussiaAs critical demo :raphic, social, economic, and political vulnerabilities& 9hese fla%s may %ell challen:e the current sense of stability in -ussia, especially after the
2 E(2 B election cycle or if the economy deteriorates& As the proverb states, <-ussia is never as stron: as she appears, and never as %ea4 as she appears&<\!] -ussian President Qladimir Putin modified this proverb in a /ay 2 2 speech# <-ussia %as never as stron: as it %anted to be and never as %ea4 as it %as thou:ht to be&<\2] -ussiaAs stren:ths made the authorities and the public believe that their country is still a :reat po%er, yet -ussiaAs

Nuclear War MICHIGAN 7WS 2013 1?4/221 many %ea4nesses limit its ability to act as one& 2ontinuin: state %ea4ness combined %ith an increasin:ly bold forei:n policy is a recipe for imperial overreach and systemic brea4do%n &\"] Decl&n&n) populat&on pre+ents @uss&an e1pans&on Co(en T07 \Arie, Ph&6&, +enior -esearch Fello% in -ussian and Gurasian +tudies and Cnternational Gner:y +ecurity in the 6ou:las and +arah
Allison 2enter for Forei:n Policy +tudies& 0ovember !?, 2 E& 6omestic Factors 6rivin: -ussiaAs Forei:n Policy& http#$$%%%&herita:e&or:$-esearch$-ussiaandGurasia$b:2 B@&cfm] 6emo:raphic 2atastrophe 9he :reat(po%er ambitions of /osco%As current elites cannot be

reali)ed %ithout ample, developed, and hi:hly s4illed human resources& +ince the !?B s, ho%ever, -ussia has e5perienced dramatic declines in population, fertility, and life e5pectancy combined %ith increases in mortality and disease rates, includin: a rise in the rates of ;CQ$AC6+ and tuberculosis infection& From !??D to mid(2 E, -ussiaAs total population dropped by F&D million people, do%n to !@2 million((a decline of almost @&@ percent& \F] +uch a drop typically is the result of %ar or mass emi:ration, but it is occurrin: in a
lar:ely peaceful -ussia that has a :ro%in: economy and positive immi:ration rate& -ussiaAs population is the %orldAs ninth(lar:est but is pro'ected to drop to !2B&D million by 2 2D and ! ?&@ million by 2 D & \E] 1ecause of the lo% birthrate and the hi:h mortality rate, -ussia is losin: an

avera:e of E
!,

people per year& Cn 2

F, the mortality rate %as !D&2 deaths per !,

people, and the birthrate %as 'ust ! &@ births per

Kife e5pectancy for -ussian males is only D? years, five years belo% %hat it %as @ years a:o and !" years lo%er than the life e5pectancy of -ussian %omen((one of the lar:est :aps in the %orld &\B] 9he current solution of stimulatin:
births by payin: over [@, per baby may create a hereditary %elfare problem %here there no% is none and encoura:e :ro%th amon: both -ussiaAs /uslim population and its urban and rural poor&

people& 7hile the birthrate is lo% compared to other industrial states, the death rate, particularly amon: %or4in:(a:e males, is astonishin: &

Nuclear War 140/221

MICHIGAN 7WS 2013

>S2C(&na War
No r&s# of >S2C(&na "ar2 nuclear "eapons an% )eo)rap(' Bee#F */12 7riter for the 6iplomat (Zachary, 7hy 2hina and the 3+ (Probably* 7on8t =o to 7ar, 9he 6iplomat, 2 !", http#$$thediplomat&com$flashpoints(blo:$2 !"$ E$!2$%hy(china(and(the(us(probably(%ont( :o(to(%ar$*$$QP As C noted earlier in the %ee4, the diplomatic summits bet%een 2hina and the 3&+& over the past month has rene%ed conversation on %hether 1ei'in: and 7ashin:ton, as risin: and established po%er, can defy history by not :oin: to %ar& Yinhua %as the latest to %ei:h in on this Muestion ahead of the +trate:ic and Gconomic 6ialo:ue this %ee4, in an article titled, 2hina,
3&+& 2an Avoid ^9hucydides 9rap&8 Ki4e many others, Yinhua8s ar:ument that a 3&+&(2hina %ar can be avoided is based lar:ely on their stron: economic relationship& 9his lo:ic is deeply fla%ed both historically and lo:ically& +tron: economic partners have :one to %ar in the past, most notably in 77C, %hen 1ritain and =ermany fou:ht on opposite sides despite bein: each other8s lar:est tradin: partners& /ore :enerally, the notion of a capitalist peace is problematic at best& 2lose tradin: ties can raise the cost of %ar for each side, but any :reat po%er conflict is so costly already that the addition of a temporarily loss of trade %ith one8s leadin: partner is a small consideration at best& And %hile trade can create po%erful sta4eholders in each society %ho oppose %ar, 'ust as often tradin: ties can be an important source of friction& Cndeed, the fact that Japan relied on the 3&+& and 1ritish colonies for its oil supplies %as actually the reason it opted for %ar a:ainst them& Gven today, 2hina8s alle:edly unfair trade policies have created resentment amon: lar:e political constituencies in the 3nited +tates& 1ut %hile trade cannot be relied upon to 4eep the peace, a 3&+&(2hina %ar is

virtually unthin4able because of t%o other factors# nuclear %eapons and :eo:raphy& 9he fact that both the 3&+& and 2hina have nuclear %eapons is the most obvious reasons %hy they %on8t clash, even if they remain fiercely competitive& 9his is because %ar is the continuation of politics by other means, and nuclear %eapons ma4e %ar e5tremely bad politics& Put differently, %ar is fou:ht in pursuit of policy ends, %hich cannot be achieved throu:h a total %ar bet%een nuclear(armed states& 9his is not only because of nuclear %eapons destructive po%er& As 9homas +chellin: outlined brilliantly, nuclear %eapons have not actually increased humans destructive capabilities & Cn fact, there is evidence to su::est that %ars bet%een nomads usually ended %ith the victors slau:hterin: all of the individuals on the losin: side, because of the economics of holdin: slaves in nomadic societies& 7hat ma4es nuclear %eapons different, then, is not 'ust their destructive po%er but also the certainty and immediacy of it& 7hile e5tremely ambitious or desperate leaders can delude themselves into believin: they can prevail in a conventional conflict %ith a stron:er adversary because of any number of factorsJ superior %ill, superior doctrine, the %eather etc&J none of this matters in nuclear %ar& 7ith nuclear %eapons, countries don8t have to prevail on the battlefield or defeat an opposin: army to destroy an entire country, and since there are no adeMuate defenses for a lar:e(scale nuclear attac4, every leader can be absolute certain that most of their country can be destroyed in short(order in the event of a total conflict & +ince no policy :oal is %orth this level of sacrifice , the only possible %ay for an all(out conflict to ensue is for a miscalculation of some sort to occur& /ost of these can and should be
dealt by 2hinese and the 3&+& leaders holdin: re:ularly senior level dialo:ues li4e the ones of the past month, in %hich fran4 and direct tal4 about redlines are discussed& 9hese can and should be supplemented %ith clear and open communication channels, %hich can be especially useful %hen une5pected crises arise, li4e an e5chan:e of fire bet%een lo%(level naval officers in the increasin:ly cro%ded %aters in the re:ion& 7hile this possibility is real and fri:htenin:, it8s hard to ima:ine a plausible scenario %here it leads to a nuclear e5chan:e bet%een 2hina

and the 3nited +tates& After all, at each sta:e of the crisis leaders 4no% that if it is not properly contained, a nuclear %ar could ensue, and the
complete destruction of a leader8s country is a more fri:htenin: possibility than losin: credibility amon: ha%4ish elements of society& Cn any case, measured means of retaliation %ould be available to the party %ron:ed, and behind(the(scenes diplomacy could help facilitate the process of findin: mutually acceptable retaliatory measures& =eo:raphy is the less appreciated factor that %ill miti:ate the chances of a 3&+&(

2hina %ar, but it could be nearly as important as nuclear %eapons& Cndeed, :eo:raphy has a history of allo%in: countries to avoid the 9hucydides 9rap, and %or4s a:ainst a 3&+&(2hina %ar in a couple of %ays& First, both the 3nited +tates and 2hina are immensely lar:e countriesJaccordin: to the 2entral Cntelli:ence A:ency, the 3&+& and 2hina are the third and fourth lar:est countries in the %orld by area, at ?,B2F,FED and ?,D?F,?F! sMuare 4m respectively & 9hey also have difficult topo:raphical features and comple5 populations& As such, they are virtually unconMuerable by another po%er& 9his is an important point and differentiates the current strate:ic environment from historical cases %here po%er transitions led to %ar& For e5ample, in Gurope %here many of the historical cases derive from, each state :enuinely had to %orry that the other side could increase their po%er capabilities to such a de:ree that they could credibly threaten the other side8s national survival& 0either 2hina nor the 3&+& has to realistically entertain such fears, and this %ill lessen their insecurity and therefore the security dilemma they operate %ithin& 1esides bein: immensely lar:e countries, 2hina and the 3&+& are also separated by the Pacific Ocean, %hich %ill also %ea4en their sense of insecurity and threat perception to%ards one another& Cn many of the violent po%er transitions of the past, startin: %ith +parta and Athens but also includin: the Guropean ones, the rival states %ere located in close pro5imity to one another& 1y contrast, %hen :reat po%er conflict has been avoided, the states have often had considerable distance bet%een them, as %as the case for the 3&+& and 1ritish po%er transition and the peaceful end to the 2old 7ar& 9he reason is simple and similar to the one above# the difficulty of pro'ectin: po%er across lar:e distancesJparticularly bodies of %atersJ reduces each side8s concern that the
other %ill threaten its national survival and most important strate:ic interests& 9rue, the 3&+& operates e5tensively in 2hina8s bac4yard, and maintains numerous alliances and partnerships %ith 1ei'in:8s nei:hbors& 9his undeniably hei:htens the ris4 of conflict& At the same time, the 1ritish %ere active throu:hout the 7estern ;emisphere, most notably in 2anada, and the Americans maintained a robust alliance system in 7estern Gurope throu:hout

Nuclear War MICHIGAN 7WS 2013 141/221 the 2old 7ar& Gven %ith the 3&+& presence in Asia, then, the fact that the 2hinese and American homelands are separated by the lar:est body of %ater in the %orld is enormously important in reducin: their conflict potential, if history is any :uide at least& 9hus, %hile every effort should be made to avoid a 3&+&(2hina %ar, it is nearly unthin4able one %ill occur& No >S2C(&na "ar2 econom&c co%epen%ence %&spro+es GarrettF 13 6ean of the 3niversity of +ydney 1usiness +chool and a professor of politics at the 3nited +tates +tudies 2entre (=eoff, 0o 2old 7ar( 3+ 7ill Gnsure 2hina Follo%s the ^-oad -ules8, 0ovember !", http#$$%%%&smh&com&au$federal(politics$political(opinion$no(cold(%ar((us(%ill(ensure(china(follo%s(the( road(rules(2 !2!!!2(2?Bf!&html*$$QP
Of course, li4e the rest of the %orld, the 3+As economic future depends on 2hinaAs rise& 9he 3+ benefits from cheap 2hinese imports, cheap 2hinese credit and the e5plosive :ro%th of the 2hinese mar4et& 1ut 2hina needs the 3+ eMually, not only to buy its :oods but also for the technolo:y

Ct is this economic codependence that means 2hina and the 3+ %ill never enter into a second cold %ar& 1ut +ino(American relations %ill al%ays be stressful because of the very different %orld vie%s of the t%o superpo%ers& ObamaAs rebalancin: to Asia is really about shapin: the environment in %hich 2hina %ill rise in %ays that the 3+ prefers& And the 3+ thin4s it still has a stron: hand to play& 7hat do Australia, >orea and Japan have in
and 4no%(ho% it :ets from American multinationals operatin: there& commonH One ans%er is that 2hina is their leadin: economic partner& 1ut the other ans%er is that their alliances %ith the 3+ are the core of their national security& ObamaAs strate:y is to remind 2hina that %hile it has lots of bi: trade partners, the 3+ has lots

of :ood friends as %ell as allies& 9his the best %ay to understand more marines in 6ar%in, 'oint naval e5ercises %ith Japan and :ettin: the +outh 2hina +ea on the Gast Asia +ummit a:enda& Ct also e5plains %hy the 3+ has ta4en up the mantle of creatin: a proto Asia(Pacific free trade area throu:h the 9rans(Pacific Partnership& 9he 3+ cannot contain 2hina and isnAt tryin: to& Ct %ants to continue to en:a:e %ith 2hina and %orries it %ill need to hed:e in case 2hinaAs rise turns mali:n& 1ut most of all, the 3+ %ants to shape 2hinaAs rise, so that it follo%s the 3+(led but %idely shared AArules of the roadAA Obama tal4ed about in
his speech to the Australian Parliament almost a year a:o&

>S2C(&na cooperat&on (&)( no" Hon)(3&n et alF 7/14 7riters for People8s 6aily Online (7an:, Zhan: Pon:5in:, and Zhao YiaoMin:, 2hina(3&+& cooperation at local level abounds %ith opportunities# senior 2hinese diplomat, People8s 6aily Online, July !?, http#$$en:lish&peopledaily&com&cn$? BB"$B""2EE2&html*$$QP ;O3+9O0, July !B (Yinhua* (( 2ooperation and e5chan:es at the local level bet%een 2hina and the 3nited +tates are blessed %ith opportunities and have a hu:e potential to tap, a senior 2hinese diplomat said here& Cn a recent e5clusive intervie% %ith Yinhua, 2hinese 2onsul =eneral in ;ouston Yu Gr%en said that the resource(rich southern 3& +& states share :ood momentum in cooperation %ith 2hinaAs provinces and cities, %hich is beneficial for both sides and %ill cement basis for a ne% type of
ma'or(country relationship& Yu made an analo:y %ith her area of 'urisdiction %hich covers ei:ht southern states includin: 9e5as, O4lahoma, Ar4ansas,

Kouisiana, /ississippi, Alabama, =eor:ia, Florida and 3&+& territory Puerto -ico& <Cf %e compare the 3nited +tates to a sand%ich, the states alon: the east and %est coasts are t%o slices of bread %hile the southern states are the fillin:s, the most nutritious part,< she said& 7ith an increasin: number of enterprises and population movin: south in recent years, Yu observed, the importance of the southern states are 'ust sho%in: itself& +tates li4e 9e5as are amon: the least affected places amid the economic recession and lar:e shale oil reserves :ave another boost to the boomin: economy here, she said&

2ooperation and e5chan:es in various fields bet%een the southern 3&+& states and 2hina have re:istered :ood results and 4eep e5pandin:, Yu said& 9he trade volume bet%een 2hina and YuAs area of 'urisdiction scored over ! billion 3&+& dollars last year, up ?&BD percent over the previous year, far above the national avera:e F&D@ percent& 9he southern 3&+& states become the bi::est destination of 2hinese investment& /ore than B percent of 2hinese direct investment in the 3nited +tates are in the southern states, Yu
said& /ore than ! 2hinese enterprises have reached the southern states %ith a total investment of B&D billion dollars, creatin: thousands of 'ob opportunities for locals& 9he cooperation and e5chan:es maintain :ood momentum not only in economy and trade

but also in politics, culture, and education, Yu said& ;i:h(level visits of :overnors and mayors to 2hina have brou:ht about more
investment opportunities to the 3nited +tates %hile pairs of friendly states, provinces and cities %ere set up to enhance people(to(people e5chan:es& Kast year, central 2hinaAs ;enan Province and Ar4ansas +tate %ere paired to for:e a friendly relationship, %hile three such lin4s have been established bet%een cities, Yu said& /ore than D , 2hinese students are no% studyin: in the southern 3&+& states %hile !?

2onfucius institutes here are offerin: 2hinese courses to Americans , she said& Yu said she noticed in her contact %ith people
from all %al4s of life that southern 3&+& states are ea:er for :reater cooperation %ith 2hina and are offerin: favorable policies li4e ta5 cut to attract more 2hinese investment& 9he thrivin: ener:y sector in the southern states, boosted by discovery of shale oil reserves, and

the Panama 2anal e5pansion pro'ect, scheduled to be completed in 2

!D, mean tremendous opportunities for 2hinese companies, Yu said& 9he pro'ect %ill double the capacity of the canal and facilitate trade bet%een the 3&+& states alon: the =ulf of /e5ico and 2hina, she said, addin: that many port e5pansion pro'ects and channel dred:in: plans could brin: a lot of business opportunities for 2hinese companies& Yu %arned that protectionism is a ma'or hurdle that hampers 2hinese investment here& +he ur:ed the 3nited +tates to %ard off protectionism of all

4inds so as to provide a 'ust and sound environment for 2hinese investors& 9he 3&+& part should reco:ni)e that 2hinese investment here is not a )ero(sum :ame but rather a mutually beneficial cooperation, she said& 9he diplomat

Nuclear War MICHIGAN 7WS 2013 142/221 emphasi)ed that cooperation bet%een the 3nited +tates and 2hina, the %orldAs t%o lar:est economies, is not only very important for themselves but also for the rest of the %orld& +he said that the consensus reached recently by 2hinese President Yi Jinpin: and his 3&+& counterpart 1arac4 Obama on buildin: a ne% pattern of ma'or po%er relationship based on mutual trust and reciprocal cooperation charted a ne% course for future 2hina(3&+& ties& Yu stressed that as President Yi pointed out, the advancement of 2hina(3&+& relations not only reMuires hi:h(level efforts but also needs local cooperation and people(to(people e5chan:es& 2ooperation and e5chan:es at the local level could cement the basis for bilateral
ties at lar:e and become a source of stren:th for further development& <9he potential of cooperation at the local level bet%een the t%o countries is hu:e and is yet to be fully tapped& C believe that hard %or4 from both sides %ill ma4e more head%ay in this re:ard and help our bilateral cooperative partnership ta4e a deeper root,< she said&

No C(&na confl&ct no m&l&tar' use Al&son U $lac#"&llF 13 6irector of the 1elfer 2enter for +cience and Cnternational Affairs and 6ou:las 6illon Professor at ;arvardAs John F& >ennedy +chool of =overnment AND +enior Fello% for 3&+& forei:n policy at the 2ouncil on Forei:n -elations IGra(am an% @o3ertF P1ei'in: +till Prefers 6iplomacy Over Force,< January 2B, http#$$%%%&cfr&or:$china$bei'in:(still(prefers(diplomacy(over(force$p2?B?2*$$QP As 2hina has become a leadin: e5port mar4et for its nei:hbours, it e5pects them to be <more respectful<, in /r KeeAs %ords& Cn public statements, 2hina usually do%nplays the advanta:es its si)e be:ets, but in a heated moment at a 2 ! re:ional security
meetin:, its forei:n minister had a different messa:e# <2hina is a bi: country and other countries are small countries and that is 'ust a fact&< /r Kee has a phrase for this messa:e# <Please 4no% your place&< 3nli4e free(mar4et democracies, in %hich :overnments are unable or un%illin: to sMuee)e imports of bananas from the Philippines or cars from Japan, 2hinaAs :overnment can use its economic muscle& As tensions mount over competin: claims for contested territories, should

%e e5pect 1ei'in: to use military force to advance its claimsH From the perspective of the :rand strate:ist, understands that its :ro%th depends on imports, includin: ener:y, and that it needs open sea lanes& 9hey are determined to avoid the mista4es made by =ermany and Japan ,< /r Kee says& Cn his vie%, it is hi:hly unli4ely that 2hina %ould choose to confront the 3+ military at this point, since it is still at a clear technolo:ical and military disadvanta:e& 9his means that, in the near term, it %ill be more concerned %ith usin: diplomacy, not force, in
the ans%er is no unless it is provo4ed by others& <2hina forei:n policy& ;enry >issin:er, the %estern statesman %ho has spent most Muality time %ith 2hinese leaders in the past four decades, offers a complementary perspective& As he has %ritten, their approach to the outside %orld is best understood throu:h the lens of +un

9)u, the ancient strate:ist %ho focused on the psycholo:ical %ea4nesses of the adversary& < 2hina see4s its ob'ectives,< /r >issin:er says, <by careful study, patience and the accumulation of nuances only rarely does 2hina ris4 a %inner(ta4e(all sho%do%n &< Cn /r
KeeAs vie%, 2hina is playin: a lon: :ame driven by a compellin: vision& <Ct is 2hinaAs intention,< /r Kee says, <to be the :reatest po%er in the %orld&< +uccess in that Muest %ill reMuire not only sustainin: historically unsustainable economic :ro%th rates but also e5ercisin: :reater

caution and subtlety than it has sho%n recently, in order to avoid an accident or blunder that spar4s military conflict over the +en4a4us, %hich %ould serve no oneAs interests& No r&s# of escalat&on2 C(&na "&ll onl' retal&ate &f >S str&#es f&rst ,&lfor%F 12 7ichita /ilitary Affairs G5aminer (-obert, 2hinese =eneral %arns 3+ ^%e %ill not attac4 ( unless %e are attac4ed8X, 9he G5aminer, June D, http#$$%%%&e5aminer&com$article$chinese(:eneral(%arns(us( %e(%ill(not(attac4(unless(%e(are(attac4ed*$$QP <7e %ill also improve our military strate:y, our national defense and the PKAAs fi:htin: ability& We "&ll not attac# unless "e are attac#e%,< the =eneral told reporters& <7e have the measures to stri4e bac4 %hen fundamental national interests are under threat,< he said& <7e still face a very comple5, sometimes severe, situation& 7e %ill be prepared for all comple5ities& 9hereAs a sayin:# %or4 for the best and prepare for the %orst,< said Kt& =eneral ;aiMuan& 9hese comments are seen as a %arnin: to
certain members of 2on:ress and the entire 3+ military industrial establishment ( <donAt mess %ith us in 2hina&< Cn the 2hina 6aily report, 2hinese officials indicated it %ould <improve< the capability of its forces and has the capacity to <stri4e bac4< %hen its <fundamental

interests< are under threat& No >S2C(&na "ar o&l an% Sout( C(&na Sea are 3arr&ers D&a9F 6/23 7riter for the =lobal 1alita (Perry, 7hy 2hina 7on8t =o to 7ar Q+ 3+, =lobal 1alita, April 2", 2 !", http#$$:lobalbalita&com$2 !"$ @$2"$%hy(china(%ouldnt(:o(to(%ar(vs(u(s$*$$QP Cf 2hina attac4ed the 3nited +tates, she had better 4noc4 her out in the first stri4e& Other%ise, the 3&+& %ould unleash !,FD@ nuclear %arheads on E?2 deployed Cntercontinental 1allistic /issiles (C21/s*, +ubmarine(launched 1allistic /issiles (+K1/s*, 1(D2 bombers, and 1(2 stealth bombers& 2hina has appro5imately 2@ %arheads and an undetermined number of C21/s& 1ut %ho %ould fire the first C21/H 2hina had al%ays stuc4 to her 0o First 3se policy& ;o%ever,
in January 2 !!, the People8s Kiberation Army (PKA* reportedly had indicated that it %ould consider launchin: a preemptive nuclear stri4e if the country finds itself faced %ith a critical situation in a %ar %ith another nuclear state& 1y adoptin: a First(stri4e policy, 2hina is chan:in: the

Nuclear War 143/221

MICHIGAN 7WS 2013

:eopolitical :ame& Cn /arch 2 !", in an apparent reaction to 2hina8s First(stri4e policy, the Obama administration sou:ht to create the capability to launch a first stri4e a:ainst -ussia and$or 2hina %ithout fear of nuclear retaliation& 9o accomplish this, the 3&+& military plans to have !,D to !,B sea( and air(based first(stri4e cruise missiles by 2 !D and 2,D to ", by 2 2 & /any believe that to launch a preemptive first(stri4e could lead to /utually Assured 6estruction (/A6*, a 2old 7ar doctrine in %hich a full(scale use of nuclear %eapons of mass destruction by t%o opposin: sides %ould effectively result in the complete, utter and irrevocable annihilation of both the attac4er and the defender& 1ut that doesn8t mean to say that a conventional %ar could not erupt in the Asia(Pacific re:ion& Actually, it could happen anytime soon& 0orth >orea8s threat to launch ballistic missiles a:ainst the 3&+&, Japan, and +outh >orea could spar4 a %ar that could presumably brin: 2hina to come to her aid& And this is %here the conflict could become a battle bet%een the %orld8s t%o economic po%ers# 3&+& and 2hina& 1ut li4e any other %ar in modern times, oil J or the

absence of oil J could determine the outcome of the %ar&

problem& +he has

6urin: 7orld 7ar CC, the Allies launched precision bombin: of oil fields and refineries in =ermany, Austria, -omania, 0or%ay, and other =erman(occupied countries& 9he success of the Allies8 Oil 2ampai:n contributed to the %ea4enin: of =ermany8s defenses& 9hus, %hen 6(6ay came, =ermany8s vaunted pan)er divisions %ere rendered inutile& 2hina faces a similar

less than " days of strate:ic oil reserves, %hich could be reduced to ! days in time of %ar& Cf the flo% of imported oil from the /iddle Gast and Africa %ere bloc4ed at the +trait of /alacca, it %ould deprive 2hina of B I of her oil imports& At the east end of the +trait of /alacca, +in:apore controls the bottlenec4 the narro%est point in the strait %ith a %idth

of only !&E miles& And conveniently located there is 2han:i 0aval 1ase %here +in:apore maintains a fleet of submarines, fri:ates, and missile :unboats& -ecently, President 1arac4 Obama and +in:apore8s Prime /inister Kee ;sien Koon: met in 7ashin:ton 6&2& and a:reed on a plan to rotate deployments of 3&+& 0avy ships to +in:apore as part of Obama8s Pivot to Asia rebalancin: of forces by transferrin: F I of the 3&+&8s naval assets to the Asia(Pacific re:ion by 2 2 & 9he bac4bone of the 3&+&8s Asia(Pacific strate:y is her military presence in Japan, +outh >orea, 9ai%an, +in:apore, Philippines, and Australia& Of utmost importance is the 3&+&8s ability to bloc4 the cho4epoint at the +trait of /alacca, %hich connects the Cndian Ocean to the +outh 2hina +ea& 7ith the supercarrier 3++ =eor:e 7ashin:ton stri4e :roup permanently based in Po4osu4a, Japan, t%o other supercarrier stri4e :roups %ere recently deployed to the Eth Fleet, the 3++ John 2& +tennis stri4e :roup operatin: in the +outh 2hina +ea and the 3++ 0imit) stri4e :roup operatin: in the 7estern Pacific& 9he three stri4e :roups have combined aircraft stren:th of more than 2@ 'et fi:hters& At the %est end of the +trait of /alacca, in the Cndian Ocean, the supercarrier 3++ 6%i:ht 6& Gisenho%er stri4e :roup is deployed& 9o protect =uam from potential missile attac4s from 0orth >orea, the 3&+& is deployin: a 9erminal ;i:h Altitude Area 6efense +ystem (9;AA6* to =uam to stren:then the strate:ic island8s defenses& Already deployed at =uam8s Anderson Air Force 1ase is a sMuadron of !2 1(D2 nuclear(armed bombers, t%o sMuadrons of the advanced F(22 -aptor stealth 'et fi:hters, and three nuclear attac4 submarines& And from Japan to +outh >orea to 9ai%an throu:h nations in the +outh 2hina +ea to Cndia and Af:hanistan, the 3&+& has deployed a rin: of the anti(missile Ae:is 2ombat +ystem and batteries of Patriot anti(ballistic missiles around 2hina8s periphery& Cn terms of military personnel, the 3&+& Pacific Area 2ommand (PA2O/* J %hich is responsible for the Pacific and Cndian Oceans J has more than "2 , American troops under its command of %hich BD, are stationed in Japan and +outh >orea& Ct8s interestin: to note that t%o senior posts %ere assi:ned to Australian officers, one of %hich is 6eputy of PA2O/ Cntelli:ence& Australia appears to play an important role in the 3&+&8s Asia(Pacific strate:y& Cn 2 !!, Australia a:reed to host 2D to 2,D American /arines at 6ar%in, %hich is strate:ically positioned to control the 9imor +ea, a possible ne% route for 2hina8s oil imports in the event the +trait of /alacca and the +unda +trait in Cndonesia %ere bloc4ed& Obama called the troop deployment to Australia, necessary to maintain the security architecture of the re:ion& 9his %ill allo% us to be able to respond in a more timely fashion and to meet the demands of a lot of partners in the re:ion, he added&

Accordin: to the 3&+& Gner:y Cnformation Administration (GCA*, almost a third of :lobal crude oil and over half of :lobal liMuefied natural :as (K0=* passes throu:h the +outh 2hina +ea each year& 9hat ma4es the +outh 2hina +ea the most important ener:y trade route in the %orld& Ct did not then come as a surprise that 2hina claims virtually all of the +outh 2hina +ea as an e5tension of her continental shelfR thus, her territory& 1ut five other countries also claim a :ood portion of +outh 2hina +ea as their 2 (mile G5clusive Gconomic Zone (GGZ*& 9he 3&+&8s position is that freedom of navi:ation should not be impeded in the +outh 2hina +ea& 7ith no other source for oil, 2hina is plannin: to tap the oil(rich +outh 2hina +ea& 1ut the bad ne%s is that a recent GCA report said that %hile the +outh 2hina +ea is rich in oil and :as, they mostly reside in undisputed territory, close to each country8s shores& As for the disputed re:ions of the +outh 2hina +ea, the report said# GCA estimates the re:ion around the +pratly Cslands \and the Paracel Cslands] to have virtually no proved or probable oil reserves& ,(at &s a ma:or set3ac# for C(&naL Gvidently, 2hina is not prepared militarily to :o to %ar a:ainst the 3&+& Ko:istically, it %ould be a ni:htmare if 2hina ran out of oil in the midst of a %ar& And %ith all her nei:hbors includin: Qietnam %armin: up to the 3&+&, 2hina is seen as a bully %ho %ould :rab her nei:hbors8 land by brute force and intimidation& 2hina should learn that :ettin: alon: %ith her nei:hbors %ould earn her their respect, not their enmity& +he 'ust can8t :o about and say, 9his is mineX 9hat is mineX At the end of the day, 2hina8s a::ressive behavior %ould hurt her ima:e and credibility for a lon: time to come& >S an% C(&na "on7t )o to "ar2 &nter%epen%ence an% (&stor' pro+es Ael%manF 5/1* 7riter for Forei:n Policy /a:a)ine (0oah, 9he 3nstoppable Force vs& the Cmmovable Ob'ect, Forei:n Policy, /ay !F, 2 !", http#$$%%%&forei:npolicy&com$articles$2 !"$ D$!F$chinaLunitedLstatesLcoolL%arLpo%erHpa:eS ,!*$$QP A po%erful ar:ument can be made that despite its economic rise, 2hina %ill not try to challen:e the position of the 3nited +tates as the preeminent :lobal leader because of the profound economic interdependence bet%een the t%o countries& 9his is the essence of the official, thou:h dated, 2hinese slo:an of <peaceful rise&< 9rade accounts for half of 2hinaAs =6P, %ith e5ports si:nificantly outstrippin: imports& 9he 3nited +tates alone accounts for rou:hly 2D percent of 2hinese sales& 9otal trade bet%een the countries amounts to a stunnin: [D billion a year& 9he 2hinese :overnment
holds some [!&2 trillion in 3&+& 9reasury debt, or B percent of the outstandin: total& Only the 3&+& Federal -eserve and the +ocial +ecurity trust fund hold moreR all American households combined hold less& As of the most recent count, !?@, 2hinese students attend 3&+& universitiesR some E , Americans live and study and %or4 in mainland 2hina& 7e are no lon:er in the realm of pin:(pon: diplomacy# 7e are in the

%orld of economic and cultural partnership& 9hese many cooperative pro'ects reMuire trust, credibility, and commitment (( all of %hich %ere lac4in: bet%een the 3nited +tates and the +oviet 3nion& Cn the lon: run, 2hina %ould li4e to rely less on e5ports and e5pand its customer base to include a bi::er domestic mar4et& 9he 3nited +tates, for its part, %ould clearly prefer a more dispersed o%nership of its debt& 1ut for no%, each side is stuc4& For the foreseeable

Nuclear War MICHIGAN 7WS 2013 146/221 future, the 3&+&(2hina economic relationship is :oin: to remain a ti:ht mutual embrace& 9he ar:ument that the 3nited +tates and 2hina %ill not find themselves in a stru::le for :lobal po%er depends on one historical fact# Ne+er 3efore (as t(e %om&nant "orl% po"er 3een so econom&call' &nter%epen%ent "&t( t(e r&s&n) c(allen)er &t must confront & 3nder these conditions, trade and debt provide over%helmin: economic incentives to avoid conflict that %ould be costly to all& Over time, the t%o countriesA mutual interests %ill out%ei:h any tensions that arise bet%een them&

>S "on7t attac# C(&na o+er ,a&"an2 no &ncent&+e Ael%manF 5/1* 7riter for Forei:n Policy /a:a)ine (0oah, 9he 3nstoppable Force vs& the Cmmovable Ob'ect, Forei:n Policy, /ay !F, 2 !", http#$$%%%&forei:npolicy&com$articles$2 !"$ D$!F$chinaLunitedLstatesLcoolL%arLpo%erHpa:eS ,!*$$QP 9o see %hy this scenario is so plausible, all that is reMuired is to as4 the follo%in: Muestion# 7ould the president of the 3nited +tates :o to %ar %ith 2hina over 9ai%an absent some hi:h(profile immediate crisis capable of mobili)in: domestic supportH Cf the 3nited +tates %ere to abandon 9aipei, it %ould have to insist to 2hina, as %ell as Japan, +outh >orea, and 3&+& citi)ens, that 9ai%an %as in a basic sense different from the rest of Asia (( that the 3nited +tates %ould protect Asian allies from he:emony despite lettin: 9ai%an :o& Failure to do so credibly %ould transform capitulation on 9ai%an into the end of 3&+& military he:emony in Asia& Ct %ould represent a reversal of the victories in the Pacific durin: 7orld 7ar CC& Ct %ould put much of the %orldAs economic po%er %ithin 2hinaAs sphere of control, not only its sphere of influence& 9o be the re:ional he:emon in Asia
%ould mean dominatin: more than half the %orldAs population and more than half its economy& Gven %ithout increasin: its position in Gurope, the /iddle Gast, Africa, or Katin America (( and %ithout achievin: military parity (( 2hina could nonetheless be on a par %ith the 3nited +tates in terms of :lobal influence&

>S2C(&na "on7t )o to "ar2 &nter%epen%enceF "ea# m&l&tar'F ot(er countr&es "on7t (elpF no &ncent&+eF an% (&stor' $urne' an% HampsonF 12 1urney is an officer of the Order of 2anada, is a senior strate:ic advisor to 0orton -ose Fulbri:ht, and a chancellor of Ka4ehead 3niversity and a visitin: professor and +enior 6istin:uished Fello% at 2arleton 3niversity R ;ampson is a 6istin:uished Fello% and director of =lobal +ecurity at the 2entre for Cnternational =overnance Cnnovation (6ere4 and Fen, 2ould the 3nited +tates and 2hina :o to %arH, iPolitics, 0ovember !?, http#$$%%%&ipolitics&ca$2 !2$!!$!?$could(the(united(states(and( china(:o(to(%ar$*$$QP On the other side of the led:er, here are five reasons %hy there %on8t be %ar& 9he first is that 2hina and the 3&+& are t%o of the most hi:hly economically &nter%epen%ent economies in the %orld& 2hina is heavily invested in the 3&+& economy and 3&+& 9reasury 1ills& 9he 3&+&, in turn, is heavily invested in 2hina& Any 4ind of ma'or disruption in relations or escalation of tensions %ould cost both countries dearly& 3nli4e the 3&+& and -ussia durin: the 2old 7ar, or even
the relationship bet%een =ermany and 1ritain prior to the First 7orld 7ar, 2hina and the 3nited +tates are 'oined at the hip by mutual trade and investment& 9hey may be strate:ic rivals, but any 4ind of sur:ical separation %ould almost certainly 4ill off both of these +iamese t%ins& +econd,

C(&na &s m&l&tar&l' &n no pos&t&on to c(allen)e t(e >LSL Cts military po%er and pro'ection capabilities pale in comparison to that of the 3&+&, not%ithstandin: recent increases in 2hinese defense spendin: and 2hina8s acMuisition of a blue(%ater navy& 0or is it at all clear that 2hina %ants to :o head(to(head %ith the 3&+& by challen:in: its :lobal military supremacy& 9hird, most countr&es of the Asia Pacific, includin: A+GA0, "on7t :o&n t(e States &n a >LSL2le% ant&2C(&na coal&t&on & Cncidentally, this is one of the reasons %hy some countries are ambivalent about the security thrust of the 9PP and :o out of their %ay to pitch it as a trade deal& Fourth, Amer&cans (a+e no stomac( for open&n) up anot(er m&l&tar' front& 1eset by vast domestic challen:es and still recoverin: from their bloody and inconclusive e5periences in CraM and Af:hanistan, Americans in :eneral %ill be disinclined to loo4 for fresh conflicts& 9he 2hinese have their o%n domestic %orries to distract themR if hostilities open, e5pect to see them limited to trade disputes, or to bloodless (and publicly deniable* stri4es in cyberspace& 9he fifth is recent (&stor'& 9he record of +ino(American relations since the >issin:er(0i5on openin: in the early !?E s has lar:ely been one of cooperation& 2hina and America cooperated on the %ithdra%al of Qietnamese troops from 2ambodia in the Paris Peace Accords of !??2& America %as a stron: supporter of 2hina8s entry into the 7orld 9rade Or:ani)ation& American companies have invested hu:ely in 2hina and no% 2hinese companies are tryin: to do the same in the 3&+& (and

Nuclear War 145/221

MICHIGAN 7WS 2013

2anada*& Althou:h 2hina and the 3&+& have their differences on ho% to deal %ith the conseMuences of the Arab +prin:, especially in +yria, they have shared interests in promotin: stability in the /iddle Gast and securin: safe passa:e for the 2 per cent of the %orld8s oil supplies that pass throu:h the straits of the Persian =ulf, much of it to 2hina& 9he 3&+& and 2hina simply have too much at sta4e to replay the %ar bet%een

Athens and +parta& 9he rest of us also must ensure that history does not repeat itself& 2anada, Australia, the 3&+& and
others, for e5ample, mi:ht be:in by adoptin: a common, not competitive, approach to investments by 2hinese +OGs in their respective resource bases and to the shared threat from cyberspace, thereby ma4in: the Asian pivot more than a trendy pirouette&

No pro3a3&l&t' of >S2C(&na "ar2 culture means no "ar at "orstF confl&cts are &ne+&ta3le Don)N&anF 12 6irector of the Gast Asian Cnstitute, 0ational 3niversity of +in:apore (Zhen:, 2ultural -easons 2hina 7onAt =o 9o 7ar 7ith 3+, +trait 9imes, /arch !?, http#$$ne%shub&nus&edu&s:$ne%s$!2 "$P6F$23K93-AK(st(!?mar(pA2 &pdf*$$QP +o %hy is %ar an impossibility bet%een the t%oH One should distin:uish bet%een small(scale conflicts and ma'or %ars& All 4inds of conflicts such as trade disputes and ideolo:y(oriented debates on human ri:hts are inevitable and normal& 1ut for the 2hina(us conflict to result in a ma'or %ar is unli4ely& ;ere is the cultural ar:ument& A lon: undisrupted history of several thousand years has besto%ed 2hina %ith a rare sense of <bi: history<& 2hina perceives lon:(term issues %ith a lon:(term vision& 2hina is slo% in dealin: %ith international issues, %hile the Americans sometimes become impatient& 2hinaAs normal approach to problems is to find the best solutions before actin: on them& 2hina
sees many problems as inherent in the process of development and believes solutions %ill eventually emer:e %ith time& An analo:y can be made here %ith 2hinese medicine, %hich is slo% in curin: an illness but is considered better in completely curin: one& 9he American %ay is similar to 7estern medicineAs deliverin: of Muic4 fi5es& 9he differences bet%een cultures are also demonstrated in the different

understandin: of strate:y& 9he 7est vie%s 2hinaAs <9ao =uan: Pan: ;ui< (translated literally as <hidin: bri:htness and cherishin: obscurity<* strate:y as somethin: temporary and believes 2hina is %aitin: for better opportunities to emer:e& 9his strate:y is apparent in 2hinaAs reactive and defensive forei:n policy of the last fe% centuries& Cts
defensive forei:n policy is best reflected in 2hinaAs =reat 7all, %hich %as built for defendin: a::ressive invasions& Althou:h such defensive strate:ies are not very successful in 2hinese history, they are deeply rooted in 2hinese culture& 9his defensive culture also prevails in 2hinaAs military development& 9he military philosophy of <)hi :e %ei %u< simply means

that the purpose of developin: %eapons is to use them to stop their usa:e& For the 7est, it is for deterrence %hile for the 2hinese it is defence& 2hina develops a certain 4ind of %eapon or military plan only to counteract %eapons and military plans directed at it& 2hina is rarely pre(emptive li4e the 3+& 2hina has repeatedly stressed its nuclear policy of maintainin: a minimum deterrence %ith a no(first(use pled:e& 2hinese defence policy is very different from the ones adopted by the +oviet 3nion, =ermany and Japan before 7orld 7ar CC, %hich all had a state %ill and plan to achieve he:emony& 9he reactive element is also in the daily practices of 2hinaAs forei:n policy, %hich runs on a reactive mode li4e firefi:hters& 9his scant
re:ard for forei:n policy can be seen in 2hinaAs chess :ame, <%eiMi< (Japanese :o*& Cn 6r ;enry >issin:erAs ne% boo4, On 2hina, he uses an analo:y of %eiMi to depict the difference bet%een 7estern and 2hinese strate:ic cultures& 7estern strate:ic culture is li4e a :ame of chess %hich tends to be a )ero( sum :ame, %hile the 2hinese %eiMi is a non()ero(sum :ame %here relative :ains are possible& Cn the 7est, be it the presidential system or the 2abinet system, the minister of forei:n affairs is a prominent and influential position& 1y comparison, the %eiMi philosophy emphasises relative :ains& 2hinese( style forei:n policy could be li4ened to doin: business# you may ma4e more profits today, but C may ma4e more tomorro%& 7ith such a mentality, forei:n policy is never an ur:ent matter& 3nli4e his counterpart in the 7est, the 2hinese minister of forei:n policy occupies an e5tremely lo% position in the administrative hierarchy and has limited influence& 2hinese culture is also uniMue because of its secular nature& Ct does not

have a mission to chan:e others& Cn international affairs, it is reflected in the 2hinese understandin: of soverei:nty& +overei:nty in the 7est means homo:eneity and conver:ence, %hile 2hinese soverei:nty emphasises <harmony in diversity<& 7estern countries have the tendency to chan:e the polities of other countries to conform to their o%n, %hereas 2hina is stron:ly a:ainst such practices and values coe5istence of different countries& Cn some phases of its history, 2hina did become a::ressive, such as durin: the Puan and ,in: dynasties& 1ut durin: these periods, 2hina itself %as ruled by %hat the 2hinese called <barbarians<& 9he a::ressiveness of /aoist forei:n policy %as lar:ely due to an imported ideolo:y, namely, communism& 9oday, 2hina is a:ain at a crossroads& 9%o ideational forces are %or4in: in its forei:n policy# a return to its o%n :rand tradition or Americanisation& 9o be sure, Americanisation %ill create an a::ressive 2hina, %hile its :rand tradition is a peaceful 2hina, be it authoritarian or democratic& Increase% C(&nese relat&ons %on7t result &n &ncrease% cooperat&on $remmer an% @ou3&n&F 04 C- Professor at 2olumbia, Faculty member at +tanford8s ;oover Cnstitution, +enior Fello% at the 7orld Policy Cnstitute, Ph6 in Political +cience at +tanford and Professor of Gconomics at 0e% Por4 3niversityAs +tern +chool of 1usiness and chairman of -=G /onitor (Can and 0ourie, 9he Pin and Pan: of 3&+&(2hina -elations, ! +eptember ?*$$QP Amer&can an% C(&nese off&c&als sa&% all t(e r&)(t t(&n)s %ur&n) t(&s summerNs &nau)ural roun% of t(e&r Strate)&c an% -conom&c D&alo)ueL !res&%ent $arac# .3ama ple%)e% to Mfor)e a pat( to t(e future t(at "e see# for our c(&l%renLM C(&nese State Counc&lor Da& $&n))uo "on%ere% alou% "(et(er Amer&ca an% C(&na can M3u&l% 3etter relat&ons %esp&te +er' %&fferent

Nuclear War MICHIGAN 7WS 2013 14*/221 soc&al s'stemsF cultures an% (&stor&esLM He ans"ere% (&s o"n 8uest&onF &n -n)l&s(F "&t( a MDes "e canLM,(e' canF 3ut t(e' pro3a3l' "onNtL DesF MrL .3ama "&ll +&s&t C(&na &n No+em3erL $ut "(en &t comes to &nternat&onal 3ur%en2s(ar&n)F Was(&n)ton &s focuse% on )eopol&t&cal (ea%ac(es "(&le C(&na conf&nes &ts (ea+'2l&ft&n) to )eoeconom&c c(allen)es & 9he t%o sides have :ood reason to cooperate, but t(ereNs a )ro"&n) )ap 3et"een "(at Was(&n)ton e1pects from $e&:&n) an% "(at t(e C(&nese can %el&+erL Man' of t(e &ssues t(at create confl&ct &n >LSL2 C(&nese relat&ons are "ell #no"n# an enormous 3&lateral tra%e %ef&c&tF %&sputes o+er t(e +alue of C(&naNs currenc'F protect&ons for >LSL
&ntellectual propert'F t(e %ollarNs role as &nternat&onal reser+e currenc'F confl&cts o+er (uman r&)(tsF na+al altercat&onsF protect&on&st t(reats from 3ot( s&%esF an% %&sa)reements o+er (o" 3est to (an%le Nort( BoreaNs B&m on) IlL $ut t(ere are ot(erF less o3+&ous o3stacles to partners(&pL A&rst

, 3ot( )o+ernments rema&n lar)el' focuse% on form&%a3le %omest&c c(allen)esL MrL .3ama #no"s (&s pol&t&cal fortunes %epen% lar)el' on t(e res&l&ence of t(e >LSL econom' an% &ts a3&l&t' to )enerate :o3sL HeNs occup&e% for t(e moment "&t( a (&)(2sta#es po#er )ame "&t( la"ma#ers &n (&s o"n part' o+er am3&t&ous (ealt(2care an% ener)'2reform plansL C(&naNs lea%ers(&p faces compet&n) &nternal %eman%s from t(ose "(o "ant to st&mulate t(e econom' to"ar% anot(er roun% of e1port2%r&+en )ro"t( an% ot(ers "(o "ant to s(&ft 8u&c#l' to"ar% )reater %epen%ence on %omest&c consumpt&onL =iven the trade deficit, Was(&n)ton "oul% l&#e $e&:&n) to focus on t(e latterF 3ut C(&na "onNt mo+e as fast as t(e >LSL "oul% l&#eF &n part 3ecause t(e lea%ers(&p reco)n&9es t(at t(e loss of m&ll&ons of manufactur&n) an% construct&on :o3s &n recent mont(s coul% fuel furt(er turmo&l &n a countr' t(at alrea%' sees tens of t(ousan%s of lar)e2scale protests eac( 'earL Secon%F t(ereNs t(e 3ureaucrat&c pro3lemL Aor t(e past se+eral 'earsF former >LSL ,reasur' Secretar' Henr' !aulson c(a&re% a strate)&c
t(at C(&naNs fore&)n an% f&nance m&n&str&es "&ll "or# seamlessl' to)et(er e&t(erL ,(e ne" formula for tal#s &s 3ureaucrat&c &nf&)(t&n) s8uare%L

%&alo)ue "&t( C(&nese <&ce !rem&er Wan) =&s(anL Was(&n)ton an% $e&:&n) (a+e no" e1pan%e% t(e scope of tal#s to &nclu%e t(e State Department an% C(&naNs fore&)n m&n&str'L /ea+&n) as&%e t(e %&ff&cult&es &n 3u&l%&n) trust 3et"een >LSL an% C(&nese ne)ot&atorsF State an% ,reasur' %onNt coor%&nate "ell on strate)'F an% t(ereNs no )uarantee

,(e t(&r% reason t(e >LSL an% C(&na "onNt 3u&l% a %ura3le strate)&c partners(&p &s t(at $e&:&n) (as l&ttle appet&te for t(e lar)er )eopol&t&cal role Was(&n)ton "oul% l&#e &t to pla'L W(' s(oul% $e&:&n) accept t(e r&s#s t(at come "&t( %&rect &n+ol+ement &n confl&cts &n+ol+&n) Iran an% Ira8F Af)(an&stan an% !a#&stanF Israel&s an% !alest&n&ansF Somal&a an% Su%anF an% ot(er sources of potent&al turmo&lV It (as more &mme%&ate pro3lems at (omeL .n man' &ssues "(ere t(e >LSL "ants C(&naNs supportOon IranNs nuclear pro)ramF for e1ampleO$e&:&n)Ns &nterests %onNt co&nc&%e "&t( Was(&n)tonNs & -+en &n -ast As&aF C(&na (as )oo% reason to a+o&% t(e (ea+' l&ft&n) on secur&t'F 3ecause t(e >LSL na+al presence l&m&ts t(e r&s# t(at apanF In%&aF an% ot(er states "&ll spen% muc( more mone' on t(e&r m&l&tar&esL ItNs not as t(ou)( $e&:&n) &s en:o'&n) a free r&%eL
C(&naNs more t(an Q2 tr&ll&on &n fore&)n currenc' reser+es )&+es &ts lea%ers(&p enormous clout as &nternat&onal len%er of last resortL Its cons&%era3le contr&3ut&on to )lo3al sta3&l&t' &s ma&nl' &n f&nanc&n) Was(&n)tonNs sp&ral&n) %e3tL $' r&)(t&n) &ts o"n econom'F C(&na can 3e t(e pr&mar' en)&ne of near2term )lo3al )ro"t(L IsnNt t(at ser+&ce enou)(F C(&nese off&c&als as#F at a t&me "(en econom&c cr&ses a))ra+ate so man' &nternat&onal pro3lemsV ,(e one tan)&3le result of t(&s summerNs Strate)&c an% -conom&c %&alo)ueF a Mmemoran%um of un%erstan%&n)M on cl&mate c(an)eF re+eals t(e lar)er pro3lemL ItNs +alua3le to (a+e an a)reement &n pr&nc&pleF 3ut t(ere "ere no (ar% c(o&ces

W(ene+er >LSL an% C(&nese off&c&als )et to)et(er t(ese %a'sF t(e' tr&))er a ne" roun% of speculat&on t(at t(e "orl%Ns most &mportant 3&lateral relat&ons(&p m&)(t soon 3ecome &ts most +alua3le strate)&c all&anceL ItNs "ron) to ent&rel' %&sm&ss t(e +alue of effect&+e speec(es an% pos&t&+e pol&t&cal s'm3ol&smL $ut as >LSL an% C(&nese ne)ot&ators mo+e from "or%s to "or#F t(e'Nre )o&n) to 3e pull&n) &n %&fferent %&rect&onsL
on t(e pr&mar' 3one of content&onOcar3on em&ss&onsL ,(atNs a pro3lem t(at "&ll )enerate fr&ct&on &n mont(s to comeL

C(&na &s not a t(reat an% no &ncent&+e to )o to "a'2 no sea or a&r po"er !eGaF 0* +enior fello% at the Cndependent Cnstitute, a senior fello% %ith the 2oalition for a -ealistic Forei:n Policy, a senior fello% %ith the =eor:e 7ashin:ton 3niversity ;omeland +ecurity Policy Cnstitute, an adviser to the +traus /ilitary -eform Pro'ect, and an analyst for /+012 television (2harles, /ore 6efense +pendin:, Kess +ecurity, Anti7ar, Feb& !F, http#$$anti%ar&com$pena$HarticleidSBD@F*$$QP 2ertainly, 2hinese military developments bear %atchin:, and althou:h many see 2hina as the ne5t :reat threat, even if 2hina moderni)es and e5pands its strate:ic nuclear force (as many military e5perts predict it %ill*, the 3nited +tates %ill retain a credible nuclear deterrent %ith an over%helmin: advanta:e in %arheads, launchers, and variety of delivery vehicles& /oreover, 2hina does not possess the sea( or airlift to be able to pro'ect its military po%er and threaten the 3&+& homeland& And li4e -ussia, 2hina may not have the %here%ithal to compete %ith and challen:e the 3nited +tates& Cn 2 ", 3&+& =6P %as almost ei:ht times more than 2hinaAs ([! &? trillion vs& [!&@ trillion*& 2hina spent fractionally more of its =6P on defense than the 3nited +tates ("&? percent vs& "&E percent*, but in absolute terms the 3&+& defense e5penditures %ere seven times that of 2hinaAs ([@ @&? billion vs& [DD&? billion*& +o 2hina %ould have to devote one(Muarter of its =6P to defense to eMual the 3nited +tates&

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Nuclear War 14?/221

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>S2@uss&a War
No >S2@uss&a "ar2 cooperat&on on Iran pro+es Caffert'F 12 -eporter for 200 (Jac4, ;o% 1i: a 9hreat to the 3+ is -ussiaH, 200, April 2, http#$$caffertyfile&blo:s&cnn&com$2 !2$ @$ 2$ho%(bi:(a(threat(to(the(u(s(is(russia$*$$QP 9op 6emocrats are 'umpin: all over /itt -omney for comments he made about -ussia&1oth Qice President Joe 1iden and
+ecretary of +tate ;illary 2linton paint the li4ely -epublican nominee as stuc4 in the days of the 2old 7ar&9his all :oes bac4 to President ObamaAs so( called hot(mic controversy ( %hen /r& Obama %as heard as4in: -ussian President 6mitry /edvedev for some <space< on a Guropean missile defense system& 9he President said he %ould have more <fle5ibility< after the 0ovember election&-omney slammed /r& Obama after that incident, callin: -ussia <our number one :eopolitical foe&<1ut no% 1iden and 2linton are :oin: after -omney for his limited forei:n policy e5perience ( and for

callin: -ussia enemy number one&1iden says itAs not the 2old 7ar !?D s& Althou:h %e have disa:reements %ith -ussia, he says theyAre <united %ith us on Cran< and that -ussia is one of only t%o %ays the 3&+& is :ettin: supplies into our troops in Af:hanistan&;illary 2linton calls -omneyAs vie%s on -ussia <dated< and says there are more pressin: forei:n
policy issues&-omneyAs campai:n shot ri:ht bac4 at these criticisms, pointin: out -ussiaAs <opposition to cripplin: sanctions on Cran, its obstructionism on +yria and its o%n bac4slidin: into authoritarianism&< -omney insists that President Obama is too open to concessions %hen it comes to -ussia&9he missile defense system has been a pric4ly issue bet%een the t%o nations& 9he 3&+& and 0A9O insist it %ould be used to protect Gurope a:ainst an Cranian stri4e&1ut -ussia %orries it %ould violate its soverei:nty&

@uss&an am3assa%or pro+es t(at @uss&a &s not a secur&t' t(reat to t(e >S E&n(uaF */10 2hinese(Gn:lish 0e%s -eport (3&+& does not see -ussia as security threat# ambassador, Yinhua 0et, 2 !", http#$$ne%s&5inhuanet&com$en:lish$%orld$2 !"( F$! $cL!"2@@FF@"&htm*$$QP /O+2O7, June ! (Yinhua* (( 7ashin:ton does not re:ard /osco% as a security threat and economy rival, 3&+& Ambassador to -ussia /ichael /cFaul said /onday&<7e do not consider -ussia as a rival to the 3nited +tates either in security or in the economy,< /cFaul told an audience in the /osco% +chool of Political +tudies&9he diplomat added that President 1arac4 Obama favored relations that %ould benefit both countries and better relations %ith -ussia are in the 3&+& national interests&<7e believe so and are %or4in: to%ards this :oal,< he said&/cFaul cited nuclear arms control a:reements, the situations over the >orean Peninsula, Cran, Af:hanistan amon: :lobal problems /osco% and 7ashin:ton need to 'oin forces to tac4le&9he ambassador also said he has been optimistic about the future of 3&+&(-ussian relations&-ussian President Qladimir Putin and Obama are to meet durin: the upcomin: =B summit in 0orthern Creland ne5t %ee4&

No >S2@uss&a "ar2 @uss&a &s too "ea# to attac# t(e >S /&e3erF 07 Professor of =overnment and Cnternational Affairs at =eor:eto%n 3niversity (-obert J&, <Persistent Primacy and the Future of the American Gra<, AP+A Paper 2 E, http#$$%%%&allacademic&com$$meta$pLmlaLapaLresearchLcitation$2$!$!$ $D$pa:es2!! DB$p2!! DB( !&php*$$QP 2onstraints on the capacity of adversaries also needs to be ta4en into account& -ussia under Putin has put pressure on its immediate nei:hbors and see4s to rebuild its armed forces, but /osco%8s ability to re:ain the superpo%er status of the former +oviet 3nion remains limited& 9he -ussian armed forces are in %oeful condition, the total population is half that of the 3++- and declinin: by E , per year, the economy is over%helmin:ly dependent on revenues from oil and natural :as and thus vulnerable if %orld mar4et prices soften, and the lon: term stability of its crony capitalism and increasin:ly authoritarian political system are uncertain& 2hina, despite e5traordinary economic :ro%th and moderni)ation, %ill continue to depend on rapid e5pansion of trade and the absorption of vast numbers of people movin: from the countryside to the cities& Ct may %ell become a ma'or military challen:er of the 3nited +tates, first re:ionally and even :lobally, but only over the lon: term&

$ostrum conclu%es no "ar $ostromF 07 Ph6 and Professor at O5ford 3niversity (0ic4, 9he Future of ;umanity, 0e% 7aves in Philosophy of 9echnolo:y, eds& Jan(>yrre 1er: Olsen and Gvan +elin:er, Pal:rave /c/illan, 2 E, p& !!*$$QP G5tinction ris4s constitute an especially severe subset of %hat could :o badly %ron: for humanity& 9here are many possible :lobal catastrophes that %ould cause immense %orld%ide dama:e, maybe even the collapse of modern civili)ation, yet fall short of terminatin: the human species& An all(out nuclear %ar bet%een -ussia and the 3nited +tates mi:ht be an e5ample of a :lobal

Nuclear War 144/221 catastrophe that %ould be unli4ely to result in e5tinction&

MICHIGAN 7WS 2013

A terrible pandemic %ith hi:h virulence and ! I mortality rate amon: infected individuals mi:ht be another e5ample# if some :roups of humans could successfully Muarantine themselves before bein: e5posed, human e5tinction could be avoided even if, say, ?DI or more of the %orld8s population succumbed& 7hat distin:uishes e5tinction and other

e5istential catastrophes is that a comebac4 is impossible& A non(e5istential disaster causin: the brea4do%n of :lobal civili)ation is, from the perspective of humanity as a %hole, apotentially recoverable setbac4# a :iant
massacre for man, a small misstep for man4ind&

No r&s# of >S2@uss&a "ar &n t(e status 8uo2 no reason to %o so $r&%)eF 2/2* 7riter for 9Q(0ovosti (-obert, 0o :rounds for ne% 2old 7ar %ith 3+ /edvedev, -9, 2 !", http#$$rt&com$politics$medvedev(us(russia(cold(%ar(intervie%(@D!$*$$QP Prime /inister 6mitry /edvedev has denied the e5istence of any serious reasons for the possible start of a <cold %ar< bet%een -ussia and the 3nited +tates&<9here is no cold %ar and there are no conditions for it, /edvedev bluntly said in an intervie% %ith 1ra)il8s 9Q =lobo& 7hile admittin: relations bet%een -ussian and the 3nited +tates can and do become tense from time to time, the -ussian P/ believes the situation ultimately depends on the administration and the :overnment teams that are in po%er on both sides& ;e also noted that bilateral relations are influenced by le:islation pursued by la%ma4ers& 9o prove his point, /edvedev cited 7ashin:ton8s passa:e of the so(called /a:nits4y Act , %hich the
premier critici)ed as an anti(-ussian document&<9his sub'ect has been totally politici)ed and contrived, /edvedev said& Ct is a situation %here a previously document, an anti(+oviet document \the Jac4son(Qani4 amendment], has been replaced by a document of an obviously anti(-ussian nature&<9he -ussian P/ lamented the fact that a small :roup of individual adventurers in the 3nited +tates %ere able to ta4e advanta:e of an unfortunate incident in one person8s life in order to pursue their political and commercial ambitions& Ct has nothin: to do %ith us

personally, but, to my re:ret, it puts a strain on our relations %ith the 3&+&, %hich %e %ould not li4e to have happened,< he said&9he /a:nits4y Act, %hich 3+ President 1arac4 Obama si:ned into la% in 6ecember, ma4es it possible to deny American visas
and free)e the assets of -ussian nationals %ho 3+ officials say are complicit in the death of +er:ey /a:nits4y, the former accountant from ;ermita:e 2apital %ho died in prison in 2 ? %hile bein: investi:ated in a massive ta5 fraud case&

-+en &f relat&ons are lo"F t(ere "on7t 3e a >S2@uss&a "ar I+ano+F 3/12 2hair of the Political +cience 6epartment, 6iplomatic Academy, -ussian /inistry of Forei:n Affairs (Ole:, -ussia(3+ relations tense, but no return to 2old 7ar on the cards, =lobal 9imes, 2 !", http#$$%%%&:lobaltimes&cn$content$EFEF !&shtmlO&3eEr'=9%>>G*$$QP 9oday -ussian(3+ relations are :oin: throu:h hard times, and may reach the lo%est point a:ain li4e durin: the armed conflict %ith
=eor:ia in +outh Ossetia (2aucasus* in 2 B& 0o% one of the most controversial issues is the death of the -ussian child /a5 +hatto (%hose -ussian name is /a5im >u)min* adopted by a 3+ family and %ho %as alle:edly abused by his stepmother& 7hy did this tra:edy hit the headlines both in the 7estern and in -ussian mass media and cause heated debates in -ussiaH Over the past t%o decades, the 3+ families have adopted more than F , -ussian children, and 2 of them died in the 3+& /ost of them %ere either orphans or their parents %ere deprived of their ri:hts to raise children due to unsocial behavior, alcoholism or dru: addiction& For the children it %as an opportunity to have a family, instead of stayin: in the orphana:e %here livin: conditions are not al%ays :ood& 0evertheless, the death of /a5 +hatto turned out to be the last stra%, after it %as %idely covered by the -ussian mass media and ta4en up by politicians& 9here %ere also problems in the lac4 of information :iven by the 3+ side to the -ussian authorities& Ct can be

vie%ed as another test for the reset of relations declared durin: 3+ President 1arac4 ObamaAs first term& 9he echo of the
tra:edy stirred up anti(3+ sentiments in the -ussian parliament and public, and became the part of the a:enda of the first meetin: bet%een the -ussian Forei:n /inister +er:ei Kavrov and the ne%ly appointed 3+ +ecretary of +tate John >erry in 1erlin& At the press conference Kavrov stressed, <>erry

has admitted that these are real and not ima:inative problems and assured me that he %ill personally ta4e all necessary measures to ma4e full transparency and reportin: bet%een -ussia and the 3+ in this sphere possible&< Ct is si:nificant that both sides 4ept a%ay from :ivin: a political colorin: to the problem but are tryin: to find a solution& /a5 +hattoAs tra:edy is not the only source of irritation in -ussian(3+ relations, and it did not overshado% other
thorny issues that both sides are facin: today& After the adoption of the /a:nits4y Act, %hich forbids -ussian officials accused of human ri:hts abuses from en'oyin: visits to the 3+ and other privile:es, -ussia approved a similar act aimed at the 3+ officials it accuses of human ri:hts abuses& 2hris +mit, the 3+ 2hairman of the ;ouse Forei:n Affairs +ubcommittee on ;uman -i:hts, %as the first victim of the retaliatory -ussian le:al action& ;e %as denied -ussian visa& Accordin: to him, he traveled to the +oviet 3nion repeatedly in the past and is no% shoc4ed by this denial& Cn his opinion, the /a:nits4y Act %as the reason %hy he didnAt :et the visa& /issile defense in Gurope is another apple of discord in -ussian(3+ relations& 9he 3+ re'ected -ussian proposal to build a 'oint missile defense system& And the -ussian side refused to si:n any political declaration put for%ard by the 3+ statin: that the missile defense is not aimed at the -ussian nuclear deterrent& 9he -ussian approach is based on the necessity to have le:ally bindin: :uarantees that missile defense is aimed outside Gurope but not inside, and the belief that these :uarantees should be chec4ed by ob'ective military and technical criteria&-ussia and the 3+ also ta4e a different stance on the situation in +yria& After Kavrov and >erry discussed the issue in 1erlin, these

positions did not dra% closer& 0evertheless, despite all disa:reements, it %ould be %ron: to come to the conclusion that -ussia and the 3+ are on the trac4 bac4 to the 2old 7ar& Ct should not escape our notice that -ussia and the 3+ still have many areas %here our interests coincide and %here %e can and should cooperate, such as the economy, humanitarianism, nonproliferation, arms control and fi:htin: terrorism& 1oth countries can %or4 to:ether to resolve conflicts in %hich our positions are similar or close& Ct is important to iron out our differences, and it %ould be unreasonable not to cooperate because %e disa:ree on some issues& ;opefully, -ussia(
3+ relations %ill benefit from >erryAs appointment& After his meetin: %ith the 3+ counterpart Kavrov, he stated, <Ct feels li4e the second administration

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of Obama %ill aim to play a more constructive role %hen it comes to its forei:n policy a:enda led by >erry&< Cf %e do not find common :round and our cooperation fails, neither -ussia nor the 3+ %ill benefit but terrorists and e5tremists %ill&

>S2@uss&a cooperat&on (&)( no"2 S'r&a pro+es StearnsF */23 -eported for the Qoice of America (+cott, >erry# 3+, -ussia 0ot =oin: to 1ac4 off ;elpin: -ivals in +yrian 7ar, Qoice of America, 2 !", http#$$%%%&voane%s&com$articleprintvie%$!FBED!D&html*$$QP 6O;A, ,A9A- J 9he 3nited +tates and -ussia bac4 opposin: sides in +yriaAs civil %ar& 1ut they say they are also %or4in: to:ether to or:ani)e a transitional authority to end the fi:htin:&9he Obama administrationAs decision to arm +yrian rebels hei:htens its
differences %ith -ussia, %hich continues to sell %eapons to the :overnment in 6amascus&At a 6oha meetin: of forei:n ministers bac4in: the rebellion, 3&+& +ecretary of +tate John >erry said 7ashin:ton and /osco% supportin: opposin: sides in this conflict does not

mean they are at odds over ho% best to end the %ar&<0either side is :oin: to bac4 off helpin: those they8ve chosen to help& 7e understand that& 9he 4ey is for us to use the levera:e %ith the people that %e8re helpin: to brin: them to the table and achieve an appropriate ne:otiated solution, and that8s %hat %e8re %or4in: for ,< he
said&

@uss&an relat&ons res&l&ent relat&ons(&p %ef&ne% 3' %&+er)ent c'cles Aenen#o 11 (F$2!$!!, Ale5ei, leadin: researcher at the -ussian Academy of +ciencesA Cnstitute for Cnternational +ecurity, 9he 2yclical 0ature of -ussian(American -elations, http#$$en&rian&ru$valdaiLop$2 !! F2!$!F@E"?D B&html*$$QP 9here is nothin: special or unusual about the current difficulties& Over the past t%enty years, both -ussia and the 3nited +tates have e5perienced several cycles of conver:ence and diver:ence in their bilateral relations L It seems t(at Mosco" an% Was(&n)ton are %oome% to repeat t(ese c'cles t&me an% a)a&nL +uch chan:es in bilateral relations are no mere coincidence& -ussia and the 3nited +tates base their relations on mutual nuclear deterrence& 9he material
and technical foundations for -ussian(American relations differ little from those underpinnin: the +oviet(American relations of the !?B s& 9hus, these cycles of -ussian(American rapprochement are due to t%o factors& First comes the desire to consistently reduce a:in: nuclear

systems so that durin: disarmament neither party ris4ed destroyin: the military(strate:ic parity& +econd, the reaction to a ma'or military(political crisis after %hich the parties see4 to reduce confrontation and update the rules of conduct in the military(political sphere& After confrontin: these tas4s, -ussia and the 3nited +tates returned to a state of lo%
intensity confrontation& 9he first rapprochement cycle %as observed in the early !?? s& Peltsin8s :overnment needed 3&+& support in reco:ni)in: -ussia %ithin the !??! borders of the -+F+-& 1oris Peltsin also needed 3&+& assistance in addressin: the problem of the +oviet nuclear le:acy and ta4in: on the +upreme 2ouncil& 9he administrations of =eor:e 1ush +enior and 1ill 2linton %ere %illin: to help the >remlin solve these problems& ;o%ever, the Americans demanded ma'or strate:ic concessions from -ussia in return, outlined in +9A-9(CCC# ma4in: the elimination of heavy intercontinental ballistic missiles a priority& 9he parties reached an unofficial compromise# 3&+& reco:nition of the -ussian leadership in e5chan:e for the rapid decrease in -ussia8s strate:ic nuclear forces (+0F*& ;o%ever, the stron:er -ussian state institutions became, the %ea4er the impetus to the rapprochement& Cn autumn !??@, -ussia refused to ratify the ori:inal version of +9A-9(CC and declared 0A9O8s east%ard e5pansion unacceptable& 9he 3nited +tates

adopted the concept of mutually assured safety (January !??D* under %hich -ussia8s democratic reforms Mualified as inseparable from continued armament reduction & 9he Overvie% of 3&+& nuclear policy in !??@ also confirmed that America deemed -ussian strate:ic nuclear forces a priority threat& 9he crises that unfolded durin: the late !?? s in Cran and Pu:oslavia %ere, li4e 0A9O e5pansion, the lo:ical results of a restoration of the old approach to +oviet(American relations& Ct %as actually the events of !??@, not 2 , that in fact predetermined the subseMuent development of -ussian( American relations& 9he second cycle of -ussian(American rapprochement %as also rooted in strate:ic considerations& Cn 2 +9A-9(CC and the
A1/ 9reaty collapsed& 1oth 7ashin:ton and /osco% %ere faced %ith the problem of their a:reed decommissionin: of nuclear systems datin: bac4 to the !?E s& 9hese events pushed presidents Qladimir Putin and =eor:e 7& 1ush to reach a strate:ic compromise at a meetin: in 2ra%ford (!2 0ovember 2 !*& 9he 3nited +tates a:reed to si:n a ne% +trate:ic Offensive -eductions 9reaty (+O-9*, and -ussia did not ob'ect to 7ashin:ton8s %ithdra%al from the A1/ 9reaty& Cnstead of the A1/ 9reaty, the parties si:ned the /osco% 6eclaration on /ay 2@, 2 2, under %hich the 3nited +tates pled:ed to consult %ith -ussia on all issues pertainin: to missile defense deployment& ;o%ever, after the compromise at 2ra%ford, the a:enda for -ussian( American rapprochement %as e5hausted& 9he disputes bet%een /osco% and 7ashin:ton over CraM, Cran, =eor:ia,

34raine and 1eslan, %hich had been :atherin: steam since 2 ", necessitated a return to the traditional format for -ussian(American relations& At the 1ratislava meetin: (February 2@, 2 D* President Qladimir Putin refused to accept =eor:e 7& 1ush8s su::estion of includin: issues of fissile material safety in the a:enda & +ince then, the rapprochement bet%een -ussia and the 3&+& has reached a dead end, includin: at the official level&

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>S Soft !o"er

>S soft po"er &s (&)( no"2 no r&s# of collapse Se+F 12 re:ular columnist to Forbes Cndonesia, 9he Ja4arta Post, and +trate:ic -evie% (Jennie +&, 9he Po%er of American <+oft Po%er<8, Forbes, D$2", http#$$%%%&forbes&com$sites$BDbroads$2 !2$ D$2"$the( po%er(of(american(soft(po%er$2$*$$QP
Almost four years since the be:innin: of the =reat -ecession, si:nified by the implosion of the financial industry and the fall of Kehman 1rothers in +eptember 2 B, the 3nited +tates is recoverin:& Cn fact, some sectors have :ro%n to ne% hei:hts& 9hus, a declinin: 3+A is no

more than a myth& 9his myth is li4ely to continue for a %hile despite the recession officially endin: in June 2 ? as the hi:h unemployment and on(:oin: foreclosure crisis have cloa4ed si:nificant economic improvements& Cn the last four years, declinism and declinists have been spreadin: paraly)in: dystopian analyses& 2ombine this %ith 0ouriel 6r& 6oom -oubini8s the perfect
storm forecast in 2 !" and you probably %ould become even more paraly)ed& 6aniel =ross8 best(sellin: boo4 1etter, +tron:er, Faster released in /ay 2 !2 is an e5ception& Ct is probably one of the first boo4s that presents encoura:in: facts in this recovery period rather than discoura:in: vie%s of America8s future& 9he mammoth has :otten bac4 up, but it is al%ays the memory of one8s fall that lin:ers in mind& 7e all remember that one fateful day %hen %e attended the "@!(a* ban4ruptcy hearin: to meet creditors and not the thousands of days of financial stability& Just li4e %e all remember vividly the day our loved one %as buried si5(feet under %hen he died and not the beautiful decades he shared his life %ith us& Failure and losin: hurt, thus they are recorded for eternity in our lon:(term memory& Ct is 'ust ho% our brain %or4s, than4s to millions of years of evolution& 9he %orld %as so shoc4ed %ith the fall of 3+A, that its :radual rise hasn8t yet created a lastin: mental ima:e& =ood ne%s, American soft po%er is more po%erful

than any fiscal policy and political maneuver& Joseph 0ye of ;arvard 3niversity >ennedy +chool of =overnment says soft po%er refers
to the ability to :et throu:h attraction rather than coercion or payments& 1y to :et it means to receive favorable treatments based upon attractiveness of a country8s culture, ideals, and policies& For instance, inspired by 9Q series about medical doctors, some children in 9ai%an aspire to study medicine at an American university& Cnfatuated by the idea of a fair trial, an Cndonesian dissident aspires to become a la%yer& +oft po%er can be hardcore

po%er& And the American brand is still the best out there& Also, than4s to lo% 3+ dollar value, a record F2 million forei:n tourists
visited 3+A in 2 !!& Cn 2 ! , some !& @ million immi:rants applied for permanent residency, follo%in: !&!" million in the previous year, %hich reflects the %orld8s insatiable faith in the 3+ brand& 9he people of the %orld still believe that the 3+A is the place to visit, to reside, and to prosper& 3+ brands, such as automobile :iants 1uic4, =/, and Ford, continue to :ro% outside of the 3+A& 3+ brands continue to influence socio(political(economic %ellbein: of people of the %orld# Faceboo4, 9%itter, and Poutube are vital in demonstrations and social unrests& 3+ brands continue to serve people8s mobility and communication# Apple, /icrosoft, 2C+2O, Oracle, and 1oein:& People of the %orld is a mar4et of seven(billion, and most of them have occasionally consumed blac4 soda drin4s called 2oca(2ola and Pepsi& 9he 3+ :overnment has lost its :eopolitical epicenter, yet American brands 4eep the

le:end alive& And the shift has occurred from public po%er to private po%er, from political po%er to economic po%er, from hard po%er to soft po%er, %ith the end of the 2old 7ar as the turnin: point& 9he recent approval of the
JO1+ Act in April 2 !2 may as %ell pic4 up %here the failure of previous policies have left, as its intention is creatin: an encoura:in: environment for :ro%th of startup companies throu:h more efficient and lenient procedures of capital raisin:, includin: cro%dsourcin:, venture capitali)in:, and an:el investin:& And it is e5pected that every ne% investment %ould create at least si5 ne% 'obs& C can see the :reatness of American brands supported by the JO1+ Act creatin: another shift in economic recovery, as once a:ain a policy is providin: a conducive environment for :ro%th, 'ust li4e %hen =lass( +tea:all Act of !?"" %as repealed by =ramm(Keach(1liley Act in !???& 0o% the Muestion is# ;o% far %ill the JO1+ Act8s ripple effect :oH And %hich direction does it :oH 0orth or southH =ro%th, sta:nation, or decadenceH +till, C believe in the po%er of 3+A as a brand and American brands& 9he

%orld loves us& No &mpact2 soft po"er %oes not (a+e an' spec&f&c pol&c' effects $lec(manF 05 Founder and President of 6FC Cnternational Cnc& (1arry /&, +oft Po%er# 9he /eans to +uccess in 7orld Politics, Political +cience ,uarterly, Qolume !!?, Cssue @, http#$$%%%&psMonline&or:$article&cfmHC6ArticleS!D F@*$$QP
Joseph 0ye has done his usual masterful 'ob in this ele:ant mono:raph, describin: the many sources of influence in international relations and remindin: readers that e5cessive reliance on military or economic instruments of policy can often tri::er bac4lashes that harm the nationAs interests in the lon:er term& 0ye points out that rather than either coercin: others to share our ob'ectives or buyin: their a:reement %ith economic incentives, it is better for the 3nited +tates to :et %hat it %ants because others share our :oals & +oft po%er, he says, is more than influence or persuasion, <it is also

the ability to attract, and attraction often leads to acMuiescence< (p& F*& /uch of the boo4 is devoted to descriptions of the sources
of soft po%er in the 3nited +tates and other countries, includin: the nationAs values and the styles of individual behavior e5pressed in the dominant culture and transmitted throu:h both commercial activities (;olly%ood movies, for e5ample* and personal contacts, and the nationAs policies, particularly %hen they reflect values that are %idely shared around the %orld& 9hus, 0ye ar:ues, the 3nited +tates %on the 2old 7ar in part because of the attractiveness of the American form of :overnment and economy, and because American values, or American soft po%er, eventually came to dominate :lobal perceptions of the t%o superpo%ers and induced others to %ant to share in our vision of the %orld& Althou:h 0ye ma4es a persuasive case, in the end, the boo4 is unsatisfyin: because of inherent limitations in the concept of soft po%er& Ct is a form

of po%er, yes, but not an instrument of po%er that can be deployed in specific situations or even one that can be shaped in a meanin:ful %ay by the :overnment& +oft po%er e5ists, and may be influenced by :overnmental choices, but it is more an e5istential factor in the policy environment than somethin: policy ma4ers can utili)e to their advanta:e& A nationAs <attractiveness< to others is not a factor that can be e5ploited in any coherent %ay& Cndeed,
the chapter <7ieldin: +oft Po%er< is devoted solely to public diplomacythe various means available to the :overnment to communicate the nationAs policies and values& 1ut in our interdependent and interactive %orld, :overnment(inspired communications of all

types are only a tiny fraction of the information received by people around the %orld about the 3nited +tates&

Nuclear War MICHIGAN 7WS 2013 202/221 Gven if the 3nited +tates spent a more reasonable amount on its public diplomacy than it does no%, as 0ye ri:htfully su::ests, itAs diplomacy %ould still be d%arfed by the private sources of information in the 3nited +tates and abroad, and by the hu:e volume of interactions amon: citi)ens of all nations that ta4e place independent of :overnment actions or inactions&

No &mpact to soft po"er people can l&#e Amer&can culture an% pro%ucts 3ut can st&ll oppose Amer&can pol&c&es Aer)usonF 03 Professor of ;istory (0iall, Po%er, Forei:n Policy, January$February, Cssue !"@, ProMuest*$$QP
<9he 3nited +tates G5erts Cnfluence 9hrou:h +oft Po%er< 0ot really& ;arvard political scientist Joseph +& 0ye Jr& coined the concept of <soft po%er<(the notion that nontraditional forces such as cultural and commercial :oods can e5ert influence in %orld affairs& And since so many of the %orldAs lar:est multinationals are of 3&+& ori:in, some ar:ue that the products they sell ma4e American culture attractive and are the 4ey to the real po%er the 3nited +tates %ields& 1ut the trouble %ith soft po%er is that itAs, %ell, soft& All over the Cslamic %orld 4ids en'oy (or %ould li4e to en'oy* bottles

of 2o4e, 1i: /acs, 26s by 1ritney +pears and 6Q6+ starrin: 9om 2ruise& 6o any of these thin:s ma4e them love the 3nited +tates moreH +tran:ely not& 7ell, perhaps it is not so stran:e& Cn the !?th century, =reat 1ritain pioneered the use of soft po%er, thou:h it pro'ected its culture throu:h the sermons of missionaries and the commentaries in An:lophone ne%spapers& Pet it %as precisely from the most An:lici)ed parts of the indi:enous populations of the 1ritish Gmpire that nationalist movements spran:& 9he archetype %as the 1en:ali babu(better able to Muote 7illiam +ha4espeare than the avera:e e5patriate 1rit(%ho %or4ed for the 1ritish by day but plotted their overthro% by ni:ht& Anti:lobali)ation protesters smashin: /c6onaldAs %indo%s %hile clad in =ap 4ha4is and 0i4e trainers are todayAs version of the same Janus(( faced phenomenon& Alt causes to >S soft po"er ,al3ottF 0* President of the 1roo4in:s Cnstitution& >eynote Address to +tanley Foundation 2onference (+trobe, <1ush Forei:n Policy# 9he 0e5t Phase,< 6ecember, E, 2 F, http#$$%%%&broo4&edu$vie%s$speeches$talbott$2 F!2 E&htm*$$QP 9o its credit, startin: in 2 @, even before President 1ushAs re(election, he too4 some positive steps that %ere reassurin: both at home and abroad& Garly after his second Cnau:ural, he sent +ecretary -ice to Gurope and then made a trip of his o%n to 1russels and 1erlin& Cnstead of follo%in:
up, as many feared he %ould do, on the implications of his <A5is of Gvil< rhetoricJthat is, havin: the military 'u::ernaut roll ri:ht on from 1a:hdad to 9ehran and Pyon:yan: and chan:e the re:imes thereJhe outsourced diplomacy on Cran to the Guropean 3nion and on 0orth >orea to 2hina& 9he reason President 1ush chan:ed approach %as, Muite simply, that CraM %as :oin: badly, Af:hanistan seemed stuc4, and support for his forei:n policy %as erodin: at home&

9he administration also belatedly reco:ni)ed ho% much help it need from rest of %orld& 9hat %as the bac4drop for a trend to%ard restoration of more moderate, multilateralist forei:n policy in the second term& 1ut there has been a sense of tentativeness, of tactical fine(tunin: rather than strate:ic read'ustment, a sense of course(correction rather than course( reversal& 7e sa% evidence of that in recent days in the reluctance %ith %hich President 1ush :ave up on his determination to 4eep, as his ambassador to the 30, John 1olton, %ho has been the personification of in(your(face unilateralism& Ket me :ive you my o%n vie% on %hat it %ould ta4eJ not to <solve,< perhaps, but to mana:eJthe forei:n policy problem from hell& Ket me also be clear# this is not a prediction of %hat the administration %ill doR rather, itAs a prescription for %hat C believe it should do& 7hatAs needed no% is nothin: less than a broad(:au:e overhaul of American forei:n policy commensurate %ith, necessary to, supportive of a chan:e in policy on CraM itself& Ct should start %ith reco:nitionJand this is not a matter of semanticsR itAs a matter of political realismJ that %eAre enmeshed in a civil %ar in CraM and civil %ars, by definition, reMuire political solutions& 9he :reater reliance on diplomacy that everyone seems to a:ree is necessary must include ne:otiation %ith re:imes %e donAt li4e for :ood reasons, especially +yria and Cran , because %e need them to rein in the militias& Ct must also include repairin: relations %ith allies and friends& 7e must stren:then international institutions %e have %ea4ened, startin: %ith the 30 & 0o% that /r& 1olton is out, the President should
appoint someone %ho %ould personify respect for %hat is :ood and admirable and supportive of 3&+& interests in the 30As le:acy, its potential, and its utilityJCAd even say its indispensability to us in the years ahead& Ct should also not be someone closely identified %ith CraM policy to date& 9he administration should conduct the earliest possible meetin:s at the hi:hest possible level %ith ne% +ecretary(=eneral 1an >i(moon, and help him establish the best possible relationship %ith the 2on:ress&

9hese are steps of immediate relevance to the challen:e %e face in CraM and the /iddle Gast& 0o less important is a ran:e of other steps %e should ta4e to restore American leadership of the international system& 7e should do so in arms control and nonproliferation by stren:thenin: treaty re:imes %hich, li4e 30, %e have %ea4ened & C %ould stress
the importance of the +trate:ic Arms -eduction process, the 0onproliferation 9reaty, and the 2omprehensive 9est 1an 9reaty& 9hat %ould be# reducin: our strate:ic arsenal as soon as possible to the limits set by the so called /osco% 9reaty and returnin: to ne:otiations %ith -ussia on si:nificantly lo%er levels of nuclear %eapons and the elimination of tactical nuclear %eapons& As for the 0P9, %e should %or4 to :et Cndia, Pa4istan, and the five 9reaty(approved nuclear(%eapon states to 'oin in a moratorium on the production of fissile material pendin: verifiable Fissile /aterial 2utoff 9reaty& Ket me :ive e5tra attention to the 2919& 9he refusal of the -epublican(controlled +enate to ratify the 2919 in October !??? %as a dar4 day in the history of this country& 9hat %as seven years a:o& /uch has been %ritten lamentin: the irony and the folly of %hat happened then& 1ut nothin: is more eloMuent or astute than %hat Johnny AppleJ%hose memorial service too4 place t%o days a:oJ%rote for the front pa:e of the 0e% Por4 9imes at the time# <9he +enateAs decisive re'ection toni:ht of the 2omprehensive 9est 1an 9reaty %as the most e5plicit American repudiation of a ma'or international a:reement in B years, and it further %ea4ened the already sha4y standin: of the 3nited +tates as a :lobal moral leader& 0ot since the Qersailles 9reaty %as voted do%n in 0ovember !?!?, an action that %as repeated in /arch !?2 , has so far(reachin: an accord been turned do%n&< 9he 1ush administration made clear, soon after comin: into office, that it %ould let the 2919 lan:uish& C reali)e the

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administration is, to put it mildly, unli4ely no% to embrace the treaty& 1ut at least it should bac4 off hints of that the 3&+& may brea4 out of the 2919Jthat is, be:in testin: a:ainJin order to develop a ne% :eneration of nuclear %eapons& And the ne% 2on:ress, alon: %ith the 0=O sector, should do everythin: possible to lay :round %or4 for ratification of the 2919 early in ne5t administration& 9hat is a :oal that C believe %ould have bipartisan support, since there are plenty of -epublicans %ho reco:ni)e the importance of the treaty and the self(destructiveness of %hat the +enate did seven years a:o&

9here should also be an unambi:uous American endorsement of international la%J not later, but no%& 7ith re:ard
to the Cnternational 2riminal 2ourt, the best thin: %ould be to return to the 3&+& position of +eptember 2 & 9hat %ould mean re(si:nin: the -ome treaty that 2linton si:ned and 1ush <unsi:ned<Ja :ratuitous insult to many of our friends around the %orld %hose help %e are :oin: to need& A:ain, thatAs unli4ely to happen& 1ut there should be no doubt about the dama:e %e do ourselves by remainin: outside the C22& At a minimum, %e should abandon efforts to ne:otiate immunity for 3&+& forces, especially since %e

Another salutary step %ould be to en:a:e actively and constructively %ith the ne% ;uman -i:hts 2ouncil at the 30 &
have, in those ne:otiations, little <levera:e<Jto return to that %ord in the conference topicJfor :ettin: our %ay in that re:ard, as in so many others&

7eAre in the position no% of not even havin: a dele:ate on the council& 9he country of Gleanor -oosevelt is on the sidelines of the effort to breathe ne% life into the ;uman -i:hts 2ommission that she %as so instrumental in establishin:& 9his is not 'ust a shameJitAs an absurdity& +pea4in: of international la% and human ri:htsJand comin: bac4 to CraMJthereAs the Muestion of treatment of prisoners& 7e should ma4e a commitment to adhere to the =eneva 2onventions and move affirmatively to restore habeas corpus ri:hts to terrorist detainees& And since %eAre so focused on e5it strate:y for CraM, letAs have one for =uantanamo as %ell# either ma4e it =eneva(compliant or close it do%n in %ay that ensures its inmates arenAt sent to places, li4e +yria, %here the conditions %ill be even %orse& CAm no% :oin: to put one more issue on the table# climate chan:e& 9hat

a ne% policy on :lobal %armin: is important in its o%n ri:htR second, itAs important as evidence of a ne% forei:n policy in :eneral& 9he 1ush administrationAs obstructionism and obscurantism on :lobal %armin: has become symbolic of %hat much of rest of %orld resents and resists about the substance and style of leadership& 7e canAt launch an effective <diplomatic offensive< in the /iddle Gast if a 4ey aspect of our :lobal diplomacy is offensive to much of the %orldJand, by the %ay, to many of our o%n citi)ens& 7e all understand that the administration doesnAt li4e >yoto& 1ut
may seem e5traneous to dealin: %ith terrorism and CraM and the meltdo%n of 3&+& policy in the =reater /iddle Gast& C include it on the list for t%o reasons# first, because you canAt beat somethin: %ith nothin:, and at the national level, our policy on this issue is almost %holly ne:ative& 9here should be an active search for successor to the >yoto ProtocolJmaybe the /umbai Protocol, or the +han:hai Protocol& Ct %ould be a step in a ne:otiated international a:reement %ith bindin: limits for the administration to support, here at home, le:islation to limit heat(trappin: :ases& Ct could do so by ta4in: a pa:e from %hat =overnor +ch%ar)ene::er is doin: in 2alifornia and %hat +enator /c2ain and Kieberman %ere able to :et ma'ority support for in the +enate %ith the =OP in control&

Soft po"er &s &rrele+ant our pos&t&on &n t(e "orl% &s t(e same "(et(er people (ate us or not Ba)anF 0* +enior fello% at the 2arne:ie Gndo%ment for Cnternational Peace (-obert, +till the 2olossus, 9he 7ashin:ton Post, January !D, http#$$%%%&carne:ieendo%ment&or:$publications$inde5&cfmH faSvie%TidS!EB?@Tpro:S):pTpro'S)usr*$$QP 9he stri4in: thin: about the present international situation is the de:ree to %hich America remains %hat 1ill 2linton once called <the indispensable nation&< 6espite :lobal opinion polls re:isterin: broad hostility to =eor:e 7& 1ushAs 3nited +tates, the behavior of :overnments and political leaders su::ests AmericaAs position in the %orld is not all that different from %hat it %as before +ept& !! and the CraM %ar& 9he much(anticipated :lobal effort to balance a:ainst American he:emony (( %hich the realists have been anticipatin: for more than !D years no% (( has simply not occurred& On the contrary, in Gurope the idea has all but vanished& Guropean 3nion defense bud:ets continue their steady decline, and even the pro'ect of creatin: a common forei:n and defense policy has slo%ed if not stalled& 1oth trends are primarily the result of internal Guropean politics& 1ut if they really feared American po%er, Guropeans %ould be ta4in: more ur:ent steps to stren:then the Guropean 3nionAs hand to chec4 it& 0or are Guropeans refusin: to cooperate, even %ith an administration they alle:edly despise& 7estern
Gurope %ill not be a strate:ic partner as it %as durin: the 2old 7ar, because 7estern Guropeans no lon:er feel threatened and therefore do not see4 American protection& 0evertheless, the current trend is to%ard closer cooperation& =ermanyAs ne% :overnment, %hile still dissentin:

from 3&+& policy in CraM, is %or4in: hard and ostentatiously to improve relations& Ct is bendin: over bac4%ard to sho%
support for the mission in Af:hanistan, most notably by continuin: to supply a small but, in =erman terms, meanin:ful number of troops& Ct even trumpets its %illin:ness to train CraMi soldiers& 2hancellor An:ela /er4el promises to %or4 closely %ith 7ashin:ton on the Muestion of the 2hina arms embar:o, indicatin: a:reement %ith the American vie% that 2hina is a potential strate:ic concern& For Gastern and 2entral Gurope, the

:ro%in: threat is -ussia, not America, and the bi: Muestion remains %hat it %as in the !??

s# 7ho %ill be invited to 'oin 0A9OH

No t&meframe2 e+en &f t(e' "&n t(e&r &mpactF &t ta#es %eca%es to repa&r from lo" >LSL &ma)e an% soft po"er AreemanF 0* Former Ambassador (2has 7&, 7hy 0ot Ket 9hem ;ate 3s, as Kon: as 9hey Fear 3sH, -emar4s to the 3nited +tates Cnformation A:ency Alumni Association, October @, http#$$%%%&publicdiplomacy&or:$E!&htm*$$QP
9he second observation is that the ans%er to the Muestion of %hether %e can defend ourselves and persuade others to support us as %e do so lies first and foremost in our o%n thou:hts and deeds& /uslim e5tremists cannot destroy us and %hat %e have stood for, but %e can surely forfeit

our moral convictions and so discredit our values that %e destroy ourselves& 7e have lost international support not because forei:ners hate our values but because they believe %e are repudiatin: them and behavin: contrary to them& 9o prevail, %e must remember %ho %e are and %hat %e stand for& Cf %e can rediscover and reaffirm the identity and values that made our
republic so :reat, %e %ill find much support abroad, includin: amon: those in the /uslim %orld %e no% %ron:ly dismiss as enemies rather than friends& 9o rediscover public diplomacy and to practice it successfully, in other %ords, %e must repudiate 2ali:ula8s ma5im

and replace it %ith our traditional respect for the opinion of man4ind& C do not thin4 it is beyond us to do so& 7e are a far better and more coura:eous people than %e currently appear& 1ut %hen %e do restore ourselves to mental balance, %e %ill, C

Nuclear War MICHIGAN 7WS 2013 206/221 fear, find that decades are reMuired it %ill ta4e decades to rebuild the appeal and influence our post(?$!! psychoses too4 a mere five years to destroy & Cn the process of reaffirmin: our traditions, as C am confident %e shall, Americans may %ell
find a rene%ed role for an independent a:ency that can facilitate the pro'ection of our democracy and its values abroad&

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<ene9uela Collapse/Aa&le% State

<ene9uela &s sta3le an% "&ll not 3ecome a fa&le% state t(e&r aut(ors are r&)(t2"&n) alarm&sts ou3ert2Cec&F 13 Cndependent Political Or:ani)ation Professional and 'ournalist for 7or4er8s 7orld (1erta, Qene)uela more stable than 2hfve)8s enemies claim, 7or4ers8 7orld, !$2"$2 !", http#$$%%%&%or4ers&or:$2 !"$ !$2"$vene)uela(more(stable(than(chave)s(enemies(claim* $$ /+
7hile millions of people around the %orld hold vi:ils and actions in support of the Qene)uelan 1olivarian -evolution and the health of its leader, ;u:o 2hfve), the 3&+&(supported ri:ht(%in: opposition %or4s around the cloc4 disseminatin: lies throu:h the

international corporate media& 9hese lies are meant to brin: doubts to Qene)uelans in the hope that they %ill abandon their trust in the :overnment and facilitate a transition to%ard the forces a:ainst 2hfve)& As usual %ith the ri:ht %in: every%here, these forces resort to every available means, such as the despicable act of %ishin: and even announcin: 2hfve)8s death, releasin: articles by so(called presti:ious academics J %ho themselves are often on the payroll of some 3&+& a:ency established %ith the prete5t of promotin: democracy& 9he ri:htist reports mostly try to spread vile lies about the 2hfve) :overnment# that the leadership is divided, there is instability and uncertainty in the country, and most of all, the economy is about to collapse and the currency %ill be devalued& 7e8ll respond to these lies one by one& Cs the Qene)uelan leadership dividedH Ct %ould be naive to thin4 that in any :iven or:ani)ation the leaders are interchan:eable& Gach leader has had different life e5periences, even different political e5periences, has different personalities, can approach problems from different an:les, etc& 9he point is not their differences, but their :oals for the country and the people& Cs the Qene)uelan leadership, durin: the no% temporary absence of President 2hfve), movin: the
country and the revolution for%ard or notH 9hat is the real issue& +o far, Qice President 0icolas /aduro, G5terior /inister Glias Jaua, 2ommunications /inister Grnesto Qille:as and /inister of Oil and /ines -afael -amire) seem to be playin: an important, very public role and sendin: a consistent messa:e& Cf there is any difference amon: them, they have apparently put it aside for the benefit of the people& At a time of crisis li4e the one e5perienced in Qene)uela no% J %ith the une5pected, prolon:ed absence of the president J some difficulties at every level should be anticipated&

9his is a relatively youn: revolution& +ocialist transformation of society is its :oal, but this has not been accomplished yet& 9hese processes
are difficult and cannot be accelerated at %ill& 9here is still much to be done and youn:er leadership to be fully developed& 9he :overnment party, the Partido +ocialista 3nido de Qene)uela (P+3QR 3nited +ocialist Party of Qen)uela*, is barely F years oldX Ct has not yet developed a shared leadership of the revolution& 9hat the revolution depends on a sin:le person, 2hfve), is obviously cause for concern& 3ltimately, it is the people %ho decide %ho their leaders %ill be& Ct is the people %ho have 4ept 2hfve) in po%er, not only throu:h numerous elections since !???, but by rescuin: him from the 2 2 coup by the 3&+&(sanctioned Qene)uelan oli:archy& 9he people of Qene)uela participate actively in for:in: their future, so %hichever leadership continues or develops, it %ill only prevail if the people so decide& Cs there instability in Qene)uelaH 9he capitalist press ma4e it loo4 li4e

Qene)uela is in shambles and at a standstill& 1ut aside from sadness and serious concern about 2hfve)8s health, the country is movin: for%ard& +ocial and political or:ani)ations ali:ned %ith 2hfve)8s pro:ram are holdin: events in support of the revolution and 2hfve), and many are discussin: the political implications of his absence and the course ahead& 9he /isiones J those pro:rams initiated by the :overnment to improve the basic needs of the population li4e health, education, housin:, etc& J are movin: for%ard& Cnternational relations are thrivin: throu:h the recent incorporation of Qene)uela into /ercosur (an economic and political a:reement amon: five Katin American countries* and the developments %ithin the AK1A (1olivarian Alliance for the Americas* association, 2GKA2 (2ommunity of Katin American and 2aribbean +tates* or:ani)ation and other re:ional :roups& A ne% development is the attempt to diversify ener:y sources to avoid complete reliance on oil& Cn February, the first
%ind farm %ill start up in Ka =ua'ira, built in collaboration %ith Ar:entina& On Jan&!B, the Gcuadorian and Qene)uelan e5terior ministers met in 2aracas to discuss a:reements in the areas of culture, production and commerce& Another a:reement involved social security for Gcuadorian and Qene)uelan immi:rants, %ho %ill no% en'oy these benefits in both countries as if it %ere one country& A day earlier, Qene)uela si:ned accords %ith

2olombia for bilateral economic development of the border states , %hich lie alon: a !,"EB(mile border& Qicious 2olombian
paramilitaries and ri:ht(%in: lando%ners in the area have filled these border states %ith tremendous violence& 9housands of people, particularly the Cndi:enous, have had to flee and abandon their ancestral land& A Qene)uelan scholar no% at the 2arne:ie Gndo%ment for Cnternational Peace, /oisgs 0ahm, %rote an op(ed for the Jan& " issue of the 0e% Por4 9imes, entitled An Gconomic 2risis of ;istoric Proportions& 0ahm %as the minister of industry %ho %as instrumental in creatin: the neoliberal austerity measures of President 2arlos Andrgs Pgre) (!?E@(E?, !?B?(?"*& 9hese austerity measures and the increase of oil prices led to the !?B? 2araca)o, the uprisin: that 2hfve) freMuently says %as the ori:in of the current 1olivarian -evolution& 9he state then responded %ith enormous violence, shootin: at the protesters, leavin: ", dead& 0ahm %rote# Kast month, Jor:e 1otti, the head of Fedecfmaras, Qene)uela8s business federation, e5plained that unless the :overnment supplies more dollars to pay for imports, shorta:es J from food to medicine J %ould be inevitable& 9his became a self(fulfillin: prophecy& 0ot much later, shorta:es of basic foodstuff %ere reported around the country& 9he privately o%ned anti(:overnment media accompanied the shorta:es %ith a campai:n of disinformation& -eports from people in the communities and the :overnment8s 0ational Plan of Cnspection and Auditin: e5posed the reason behind the shorta:es# private producers hoarded products, includin: ?, tons of refined su:ar in storehouses in Ara:ua and @D tons of precoo4ed corn flour in Polar storehouses& ;oardin: is a common tactic of the opposition& Accordin: to Qene)uelanalysis&com, Kast month the :overnment, throu:h its :oods and services monitorin: institute, carried out !,D@2 inspections, %hich resulted in 2!2 fines and @E closures of premises, for violatin: rules& (Jan& ?* +horta:es of food have been common in the past due to reliance on e5ports& 9hat is %hy the revolutionary 2hfve) administration initiated several pro:rams of food production and distribution& Accordin: to the same article, Cn 2 !2 the proportion of Qene)uela8s food produced %ithin the country reached E! percent& Kocal production of red meat %as FD percent last year, and chic4en %as ! percent& Cs the economy collapsin:H Another opposition scare

tactic is claimin: that Qene)uela8s economy is on the ver:e of collapse& 0ahm8s article mentions the same lies J a hi:h level of debt and inflation, a 2 percent fiscal deficit, hard currency shorta:es, etc& 0ahm blames these

Nuclear War MICHIGAN 7WS 2013 20*/221 alle:ed problems on the :overnment8s :ross mismana:ement& 1ut even accordin: to calculations by 1an4 of America, Qene)uela8s fiscal deficit for 2 !2 is around B&B percent of \the : ross domestic product], much lo%er than the 2 percent number that has been circulatin: amon: opposition sources and used to critici)e :overnment spendin:& (Qene)uelanalysis&com, 6ec& 2B* Ct8s %orth e5plorin: the details of Qene)uela8s economy, but that8s beyond the scope of this article& ;ere %e8ll 'ust Muote a 3&+& economist /ar4 7eisbrot, columnist and co(director of the 2enter for Gconomic and Policy -esearch in 7ashin:ton, 6&2& ;is +eptember 2 !2 article, Qene)uela8s Gconomic -ecovery# Cs Ct +ustainableH co(authored %ith Ja4e Johnston, puts to rest 0ahm8s evaluation# 9he Qene)uelan economy has had t%o recessions in the past thirteen years& 9he first %as brou:ht on by an oil stri4e, and the second J %hich could probably have been avoided %ith sufficient counter(cyclical policies J %as durin: the %orld recession of 2 ?& 9he predictions of economic collapse, balance of payments or debt crises and other :loomy pro:nostications, as %ell as many economic forecasts alon: the %ay, have repeatedly proven %ron:& 9he sharp fall in inflation over the past year indicates that the :overnment has the ability to 4eep inflation under control %hile maintainin: economic :ro%th & As %e
have seen, Qene)uela8s internal debt burden is very lo%, and its e5ternal debt burden is modest& Gven if oil prices %ere to crash as they did in 2 B(2 the :overnment %ould have plenty of capacity to borro% in order to counter a drop in private demand& 7ith a si)eable trade surplus, Qene)uela is unli4ely to see any balance of payments crisis in the foreseeable future, and its currency does not have to be devalued& ?,

/o" o&l pr&ces are a (u)e alt case (((also means the oil 6A turns case Na)elF 13 Qene)uela blo::er for Forei:n Policy8s 9ransitions and co(author of 1lo::in: the -evolution (Juan, Cs Qene)uela becomin: a failed stateH, Forei:n Policy, D$!F$2 !", http#$$transitions&forei:npolicy&com$posts$2 !"$ D$!F$isLvene)uelaLbecomin:LaLfailedLstate* $$ /+ 9he consensus is that Qene)uela needs hi:h oil prices 'ust to stay afloat& 1ut if the frac4in: oil boom results in lo% oil prices, %hat does the future hold for the +outh American countryH +adly, Qene)uelans have nothin: else to fall bac4 on& Cts private industry is a shambles, and the country is even importin: toilet paper& Pears of populism have left the state crippled and heavily in debt& 9he public deficit reached a %hoppin: !D percent of =6P last year, even in the conte5t of hi:h oil prices& /ost of the spendin: came in the form of entitlements and subsidies that %ill not be easily eliminated& Furthermore, the countryAs current po%er cliMue seems particularly inept in dealin: %ith the complicated economic and political conditions it has inherited& 0icolfs /aduroAs only claim to le:itimacy is that ;u:o 2hfve) chose him& 0o% he is left %ith the than4less tas4 of
dealin: %ith the 2hfve) mess& ;e has surrounded himself %ith a 2abinet composed of many of the same old faces, and neither his policies nor his rhetoric su::est any shift to%ard the type of solutions that could steer Qene)uela a%ay from the precipice& 9he problem for Qene)uelans is that there

is

no :reat reformer in the :overnin: party& And %hile opposition leader ;enriMue 2apriles %ould undoubtedly steer Qene)uela to%ard
:reater economic freedoms, there is little he %ould be able to do if the price of oil %ere to tan4& A lon: period of lo% oil prices spells doom for Qene)uelaAs political sustainability& 7ithout hi:h oil revenues, basic services %ould practically disappear, and the potential for

instability %ould be enormous& Already the country is stuc4 in a state of undeclared in civil %ar, and there are claims that dru: smu::lin: has permeated the hi:her echelons of the :overnment& Qene)uela has so far avoided the fate of its nei:hbor 2olombia, a country still deep in a lon: civil %ar %ith /ar5ist :uerrillas and dru: cartels& 9his is lar:ely due to the deep poc4ets oil has afforded the :overnment, %hich allo%ed for state presence even in the most remote corners of the country& Ct is hard to see ho% that presence could be maintained if oil rents %ere to dry up si:nificantly, and for a prolon:ed period& 9his could lead to the type of problems that have bedeviled 2olombia, or even poorer nei:hborin: failed states such as ;aiti& Sta3&l&t' c(ec#s <ene9uelan collapse ,ama'oF 13 'ournalist for the 0e%spaper of 2uban Pouth (-eng, Qene)uela -emains Politically +table 6espite Opposition Pressure, 0e%spaper of 2uban Pouth, !$!D$2 !", http#$$%%%&'uventudrebelde&co&cu$international$2 !"( !(!D$(vene)uela(remains(politically(stable(despite( opposition(pressure* $$ /+ 2A-A2A+&J Qene)uelaqs revolutionary :overnment has be:an a nation%ide campai:n to encoura:e people to demonstrate en masse in support of 2have) and the 1olivarian -evolution on January 2", in an effort to repel opposition plans to ta4e the streets on that day& Keader of the 3nited +ocialist Party of Qene)uela (P+3Q* Jor:e -odri:ue) assured that Qene)uelaqs current political and social atmosphere is stable, despite repeated attempts by the opposition at promotin: internal subversion& Cn statements on +unday January !" the revolutionary leader noted that the countryqs calm environment proves that the Qene)uelan people have become increasin:ly compromised %ith the revolutionR and that they have not let themselves be misled by lies & Jor:e -odri:ue), %ho heads the =reat Patriotic Pole electoral coalition
:atherin: small pro:ressive :roups, revealed that some P+3Q and :overnment leaders have travelled to 2uba to receive instructions from Qene)uelan President ;u:o 2have) recoverin: from a cancer sur:ery at a hospital in ;avana and to also brief him on the latest development ta4in: place in Qene)uela& Amon: the Qene)uelan leaders visitin: 2uba %ere G5ecutive Qice President 0icolas /aduro, and P+3Q First Qice President 6iosdado

Nuclear War MICHIGAN 7WS 2013 207/221 2abello& Political stability is a reality in Qene)uela, said Jor:e -odri:ue), pointin: out that all Qene)uelan public bodies and institutions are fully functionin:, that people are %or4in: and livin: their daily lives normally, and that even private companies are follo%in: their normal %or4 routines & Kater on, the P+3Q leader said that the alle:ed instability is 'ust a fabrication of Qene)uelan reactionary factions that continue trumpin: up information and sparin: no efforts to insti:ate civil disobedience& 6urin: the usual /onday press conference at the P+3Qqs main headMuarters in 2aracas, -odri:ue) stressed that the Qene)uelan people remain alert and committed to do no matter %hat to preserve the country8s political, social and economic balance&

Nuclear War 20?/221

MICHIGAN 7WS 2013

,error&sm2 C'3er War

C'3er2attac#s %o not out"e&)( an't(&n) e+er' emp&r&cal e1ample spea#s to t(e contrar' Beane 13 2ri4ey 2anberra 2orrespondent (1ernard, Gleven reasons to be sceptical of %arnin:s of cyber %arfare, 2ri4ey, !(2@(2 !", http#$$%%%&cri4ey&com&au$2 !"$ !$2@$eleven(reasons(to(be(sceptical(of( %arnin:s(of(cyber(%arfare$*$$16+ 2yber %arfare and cybersecurity are the most heavily hyped threats in public policy since the %ar on terror be:an& 9his mornin:, Prime /inister Julia =illard toured the 2yber +ecurity Operations 2entre in 2anberra to sho% off the ne% Australian 2yber +ecurity 2entre she is establishin:& Cn the last t%o years, the %ar to shore up cybersecurity has been the basis for numerous policies, strate:ies and %hite papers across the %orld, and even an e5tension of the A0Z3+ alliance& /oreover, the media displays no scepticism in its reportin: of claims about cyber attac4s& 2ybersecurity is also a hu:e industry& Accordin: to t%o of the best 3+ researchers on the issue, Jerry 1rito and 9ate 7at4ins# 9he 3&+& :overnment is e5pected to spend [! &D billion per year on information security by 2 !D, and analysts have estimated the %orld%ide mar4et to be as much as [!@ billion per year& 9he 6epartment of 6efense has also said it is see4in: more than ["&2 billion in cybersecurity fundin: for 2 !2& Accordin:ly, it pays to be sceptical %henever politicians, commentators or companies tal4 about the massive threat cyber %arfare poses& 9o help, 2ri4ey has compiled a readin: :uide to some of the claims made both about cyber %arfare and cybersecurity :enerally, and to some of the specific incidents that are used by advocates of cybersecurity N 2laim# !?B2, +iberia# A ma'or +oviet pipeline %as destroyed by a 2CA lo:ic bomb (9homas -eed, At 9he Abyss, 2 @* -eality# 9here are also no media reports from !?B2 that confirm such an e5plosion, thou:h accidents and pipeline e5plosions in the +oviet 3nion %ere re:ularly reported in the early !?B s& +omethin: li4ely did happen, but -eed8s boo4 is the only public mention of the incident and his account relied on a sin:le document& Gven after the 2CA declassified a redacted version of -eed8s source, the a:ency did not confirm that such an e5plosion occurred& (9homas -id, 9hin4 A:ain# 2yber%ar, April 2 !2&* 2laim# Au:ust 2 "# 9he ma'or north(eastern blac4out that left DD millions American and 2anadian people %ithout po%er %as caused in part by the 1laster %orm -eality# 7ron:& 2laim# 2 E# A blac4out in 1ra)il that left millions in dar4ness %as the result of criminal hac4in: of the po%er system -eality# 7ron: (it %as soot*& 2laim# 2 E# -ussian denial of service attac4s crippled the di:ital economy of Gurope8s most %ired state, Gstonia -eality# 7ron:Jthe attac4s on net%or4s and :overnment %ebsites only briefly disrupted commerce for a fe% days& 9he online services of the country8s lar:est ban4 %ere only ta4en offline for ? minutes on one day, and t%o hours the ne5t& 9he Gstonian economy :re% at E&!I in 2 E& 2laim# 2 ?# 9he 3+ po%er :rid %as penetrated by 2hinese and -ussian hac4ers and laced %ith lo:ic bombs for later use -eality# 3nverified& 9he only source for the article %as unnamed current and former national(security officials& 2laim# 2 ?# +pies infiltrated Penta:on computers and stole terabytes of top(secret data related to the F("D Joint +tri4e Fi:hter potentially ma4in: it easier to defend a:ainst the craft -eality# 7ron:& Cnformation %as unclassified data such as maintenance and self(dia:nostic schedules& 2laim# 2 !!# 9he +ayano(+hushens4aya po%er station disaster %as an e5ample of %hat could happen in a cyberattac4 (=en& >eith Ale5ander, head of 3+ 2yber 2ommand* -eality# 7ron: Jthe disaster %as an e5ample of %hat can result from poor maintenance and mana:ement# 9he ill(fated turbine had been malfunctionin: for some time, and the plant8s mana:ement %as notoriously poor& On top of that, the 4ey event that ultimately tri::ered the catastrophe seems to have been a fire at 1rats4 po%er station, about D miles a%ay& 1ecause the ener:y supply from 1rats4 dropped, authorities remotely increased the burden on the +ayano(+hushens4aya plant& 9he sudden spi4e over%helmed the turbine, %hich %as t%o months shy of reachin: the end of its " (year life cycle, spar4in: the catastrophe& 2laim# 2 ! # +tu5net is revealedJa miracle %eapon that opened a ne% era of %ar (various, but one e5ample* -eality# 7ron: J+tu5net destroyed perhaps a tenth of the Cranian centrifu:es at 0atan) and delayed some uranium enrichment for a fe% months, but the vulnerabilities it e5posed %ere soon repaired& Cts limited and fleetin: success %ill also have led Cran to ta4e measures to hinder future attac4s& 2laim# 2 !"# 9he number of cyber incidents is increasin: (Julia =illard, January 2 !", amon: many others* -eality# Ct8s impossible to :et specific data, or the definitions on %hich data are based, about cyber attac4s from independent sources Jclaims about risin: attac4s come from security soft%are companies or from :overnments themselves& As 2-08s John ;ilvert has noted, Australian cybersecurity data has been thin on the :round until 6+68s 2yber +ecurity Operations 2entre :ave some fi:ures last year (the same ones used by the P/*Jbut %e still don8t 4no% %hat constitutes an incident e:# is a hac4er probin: a site for a %ea4ness, findin: it secured and then movin: on, an attac4H& 1ecause of this lac4 of clarity, it8s impossible to test the :overnment8s claim that the number of incidents is on

Nuclear War MICHIGAN 7WS 2013 204/221 the rise& 1ut 2ri4ey has previously debun4ed a claim by the Attorney(=eneral about risin: cybercrime& Pollin: by Gssential su::ests identity theft that results in actual loss of money is ne:li:ible in Australia ( &FI* %hile around EI of Australians had e5perienced some online fraud in %hich they8d lost money& For more serious cyber %arfare attac4s, t%o academics have recently tried to brea4 do%n the actual numbers# Our research sho%s that althou:h %arnin:s about cyber%arfare have become more severe, the actual ma:nitude and pace of attac4s do not match popular perception& Only 2 of !2@ active rivalsJdefined as the most conflict(prone pairs of states in the systemJen:a:ed in cyberconflict bet%een 2 ! and 2 !!& And there %ere only ?D total cyberattac4s amon: these 2 rivals& 9he number of observed attac4s pales in comparison to other on:oin: threats# a state is F times more li4ely to be the tar:et of a terrorist attac4 than a cyberattac4& 2laim# June 2 !2# 2yber %eapons are the most dan:erous innovation of this century, thousands of times cheaper than conventional armaments (Gu:ene >aspers4y* -eality# A closer e5amination of the record, ho%ever, reveals three factors N First is the hi:h cost of developin: a cyber%eapon, in terms of time, talent, and tar:et intelli:ence needed& +tu5net, e5perts speculate, too4 a superb team and a lot of time& +econd, the potential for :eneric offensive %eapons may be far smaller than assumed for the same reasons, and si:nificant investments in hi:hly specific attac4 pro:rams may be deployable only a:ainst a very limited tar:et set& 9hird, once developed, an offensive tool is li4ely to have a far shorter half(life than the defensive measures put in place a:ainst it& Gven %orse, a %eapon may only be able to stri4e a sin:le timeR once the e5ploits of a speciali)ed piece of mal%are are discovered, the most critical systems %ill li4ely be patched and fi5ed Muic4ly& And a %eapon, even a potent one, is not much of a %eapon if an attac4 cannot be repeated& (9homas -id* 2laim# A cyber attac4 could send %estern countries bac4 to the +tone A:e (various* -eality# Fe% nations have yielded to trade embar:oes alone, even to universal trade embar:oes& Ct is unclear that a cyber%ar campai:n %ould have any more effect than even a universal trade embar:o, %hich can affect all areas of the economy and %hose effects can be Muite persistent& Gven a complete shutdo%n of all computer net%or4s %ould not prevent the emer:ence of an economy as modern as the 3&+& economy %as circa !?F Jand such a reversion could only be temporary, since cyberattac4s rarely brea4 thin:s& -eplaceJ computer net%or4 in the prior sentence %ithJ publicly accessible net%or4 (on the thin4in: that computer net%or4s under attac4 can isolate themselves from the outside %orld* andJcirca !?F becomesJcirca !??D& Kife in !??D provided a fair measure of comfort to citi)ens of developed nations& (/artin Kibic4i, 2yberdeterrence and 2yber%ar, -A06 2orporation, 2 ?*

C'3er "ar &s not feas&3le for ac(&e+&n) m&l&tar' )oalsL A%+ocates conflate poss&3&l&t' "&t( pro3a3le outcomes Gart9#e 12 professor of political science at the 3niversity of 2alifornia focusin: on institutional correlates to %ar and peace, Ph&6&in political science (Gri4, 9he /yth of 2yber%ar 1rin:in: 7ar on the Cnternet 1ac4 6o%n to Garth, 6ivision of +ocial +ciences 32+6, !2(E(2 !2 http#$$dss&ucsd&edu$ke:art)4e$papers$cyber%arL!2 F2 !2&pdf*$$16+ A blit) of media, punditry and public pronouncements inform interested observers and policy ma4ers that the ne5t %ar is li4ely to be %on or lost on the internet& Cndeed, events such as the coordinated cyber attac4s on Gstonia and the +tu5net %orm seem to indicate that cyber%ar has already be:un& 9he sense of ur:ency surroundin: cyber%ar appears to be tied to perceptions that internet conflict is the ne%est phase in the on:oin: revolution in military affairs, only this time the threat is directed at the sophisticated technolo:ical civili)ations of the 7est, rather than at poor developin: states or the recipients of inferior second(%orld military hard%are&! 9o believe a :ro%in: number of pundits and practitioners, cyber%ar threatens to render e5istin: military advanta:es impotent, e5posin: those nations most dependent on comprehensive information infrastructures to devastatin: and unpredictable attac4s& Cf po%erful states lar:ely immune to terrestrial invasion can have their military mi:ht blunted and their factories and cities idled by forei:n hac4ers, then perhaps this latest technolo:ical revolution really does presa:e a xPearl ;arbor< in %hich the 3nited +tates and other :reat po%ers %ill be tar:ets, rather than perpetrators, of shoc4 and a%e& 9here is a problem %ith the :ro%in: consensus of impendin: cyber apocalypse, ho%ever# it is far from clear that conflict over the internet can actually function as %ar& 6iscussions of cyber%ar commit a common fallacy of ar:uin: from opportunity to outcome , rather than considerin: %hether somethin: that could happen is at all li4ely, :iven the motives of those %ho are able to act& 2yber pessimism rests heavily on capabilities (means*, %ith little thou:ht to a companion lo:ic of conseMuences (ends*& /uch that could happen in the %orld fails to occur, lar:ely because those capable of initiatin: action

Nuclear War MICHIGAN 7WS 2013 210/221 discern no benefit from doin: so& Put another %ay, advocates have yet to %or4 out ho% cyber%ar actually accomplishes the ob'ectives that typically sponsor terrestrial military violence& Absent a lo:ic of conseMuences, it is difficult to believe that cyber%ar %ill prove as devastatin: for %orld affairs and for developed nations in particular as many seem to believe& 9his essay assesses the salience of the internet for carryin: out functions commonly identified %ith terrestrial political violence& 7ar is fundamentally a political process, as 2lause%it)(!?EF\!B"2]* famously e5plained& +tates, :roups and individuals threaten harm to deter or compel, :eneratin: influence throu:h the prospect of dama:e or loss& /ilitary violence can also be e5ercised to alter or maintain the balance of po%er and to resist or impose disputed outcomes& 9he internet is :enerally an inferior substitute to terrestrial force in performin: the functions of coercion or conMuest& 2yber x%ar< is not li4ely to serve as the final arbiter of competition in an anarchical %orld and so should not be considered in isolation from more traditional forms of political violence&2 Cn fact, the capacity for internet coercion is limited by the same factors that ma4e cyber%ar appear at first to be so intimidatin:& For threats or demands to prove effective, tar:ets must believe both that an attac4 is li4ely to follo% from noncompliance, and that the attac4 is destined to inflict unacceptable harm& Pet, as C detail here, the need to apprise tar:ets of internet vulnerabilities in order to ma4e cyber threats credible contrasts %ith the secrecy needed to ensure an effective attac4 & +ince it is difficult to share operational details of planned attac4s %ithout compromisin: military effectiveness, cyber%ar must be practiced more often than threatened& ;ere too, ho%ever, there are critical limitations to %hat can be achieved via the internet& Ct is one thin: for an opponent to idle a countryAs infrastructure, communications or military capabilities& Ct is Muite another to ensure that the dama:e inflicted translates into a lastin: shift in the balance of national capabilities or resolve& 2yber attac4s are unli4ely to prove particularly potent in :rand strate:ic terms unless they are accompanied by terrestrial military force or other actions desi:ned to capitali)e on temporary %ea4ness effected over the internet& Perpetrators must therefore be prepared to e5ploit %indo%s of opportunity :enerated by internet attac4s throu:h other modes of combat& Other%ise, there are fe% compellin: reasons to initiate cyber%ar in the first place& 9he chief beneficiaries of cyber%ar are thus less li4ely to be %ea4 or risin: po%ers than those states that already possess important terrestrial military advanta:es& 2onceived of in this %ay, the internet is less a revolution in military affairs than it is yet another set of technolo:ies that e5tend e5istin: disparities in po%er and influence& C'3er2attac#s %on7t accompl&s( strate)&c )oals @anum 06( senior scientist at 9ru+ecure 2orp& and the author of 9he /yth of ;omeland +ecurity (/arcus J&, 2yber%ar myths# Are cyber%arfare and cyberterrorism overblo%nH, +ecurity ma:a)ine, @(2 @, http#$$searchsecurity&techtar:et&com$opinion$2yber%ar(myths(Are(cyber%arfare(and(cyberterrorism( overblo%n*$$16+ 7eAve lived under the cyber%ar$cyberterrorist cloud for more than a decade& 1ut, %eAve yet to see a sin:le, credible <cyber%arfare< event& And thereAs :ood reason# 2yber%arfare simply isnAt an effective form of %arfare& A di:ital attac4 could cause si:nificant disruptions, but it %ouldnAt come close to the specter of nuclear Arma:eddon durin: the 2old 7ar& 9o better understand the hollo%ness of this threat, letAs debun4 five 4ey myths of cyber%arfare# 2yber%arfare Cs 0e%& 6ust off your history boo4s& 2ombatants have used information( based countermeasures and deception since ancient times& Cn the modern conte5t, the only difference is that it occurs in cyberspace& 6urin: the late(!?? s %ar in 1osnia, hac4ers reportedly attac4ed 0A9O headMuarters, disruptin: communications channels to stop the bombin: of +erbian positions& Assumin: this did happen (0A9O never confirmed the report*, the cyberattac4s %ould have forced 0A9O to ta4e some counteraction& 1ut, the +erbians and their under:round supporters had little effect on the bombin: campai:n& ;ac4ers +et the 9one& Cf hac4ers can brea4 into enterprise and :overnment systems %ith relative ease, then a cyber%arriorAs 'ob should be simple, ri:htH 0ot e5actly& 9o launch a successful attac4, cyber%arriors %ould need predictably effective and hi:hly discriminatin: %eapons (( thin:s that hac4ers donAt have& 2ommon crac4ers and script( 4iddies benefit from the randomness of their hapha)ard tar:etin: and canAt attac4 critical tar:ets of choice at %ill& 2yber%arfare 2ould 6evastate the Gconomy& 6ema:o:ues tal4 about cyber%arfare causin: mass disruption of critical services that mi:ht ruin the economy& 1ut, one of ?$!!As important lessons is the resiliency of the 3&+& economy& 2yber%arriors or di:ital terrorists could cause inconveniences and disruptions (( maybe even cause the economy to sputter (( but itAs unli4ely they could do permanent dama:e& 2yber%arfare is an Gfficient Form of Offense& 2yber%ar is often touted as a battlefield eMuali)er throu:h %hich a poor nation or terrorist :roup could attac4 a superior force to soften tar:ets in advance of physical stri4es& 9his is utterly

Nuclear War MICHIGAN 7WS 2013 211/221 ridiculous& Gven if a cyberattac4 reduces a tar:etAs responsiveness, you still need a viable military force to ta4e and hold territory& 6ema:o:ues ar:ue that cyber%arfare is an option for a nation or terrorist :roup that 'ust %ants to inflict dama:e and spread fear& 9he sad truth is that a sin:le fanatic %ith a :un and homemade e5plosives is vastly more effective& 2yber%arfare Cs Anonymous& 7hat :ood is anonymity if youAre tryin: to stri4e fear into a tar:et population or persuade a :overnment to chan:e its policiesH 9hereAs a reason %hy terrorists blo% up buses and buildin:s# CtAs ho% they :et on the si5 oAcloc4 ne%s& 2yber%arfare units and terrorists may use the Cnternet to conceal their nefarious activities, but theyAll usually race to ta4e credit once their plans come to fruition& For nation(states, an anonymous di:ital attac4 mi:ht be useful for t%ea4in: a superior enemy, but their identities %ill eventually be discovered& 9he %hole notion of cyber%arfare is a scam& 9he security community has been treated to the constant drumbeat of cyber%arfare F36, but, in the absence of a real threat, %eAre left %ith little more than 2hic4en Kittle hype and unfounded speculation& +hould %e discount the possibilityH Ki4e most thin:s in security, common sense and attention to detail %ill :o a lot farther to%ard improvin: security than tryin: to scare people %ith tales of cyber(invaders&

No &mpact to c'3er attac#s Saun%ers 727 international affairs columnist (6ou:, Our computers are not :oin: to 4ill us all# 2yber(%ar is military fiction, 9he =lobe and /ail, E(E(2 !", http#$$%%%&the:lobeandmail&com$commentary$cyberspace(is( not(a(combat()one$article!" "DDF2$*$$16+ 9he ne5t Pearl ;arbor %e confront could very %ell be a cyberattac4& 9hat8s %hat Keon Panetta, then head of the 2CA, %arned t%o years a:o& A former 3&+& director of national intelli:ence, /ichael /c2onnell, %arned in 6ecember of the cyber eMuivalent of the collapse of the 7orld 9rade 2enters& /ilitary or:ani)ations such as 0A9O %ant to devote considerable resources to cyber%arfare, and %arn :overnments that they should spend far more on %eapons of online %ar& 7e tend to believe them& 9o those of us %ho :re% up in the early decades of the Cnternet, readin: 7illiam =ibson and %atchin: 9ron, the idea of a distinct and tan:ible cyberspace, as /r& =ibson coined it, seems believable& Cf %ar is hell in meatspace, then ima:ine %hat it %ill be li4e %hen it moves into the online %orld, %here all our communications and private data are stored, %here the machines that control our entire lives can be hac4ed& Cf the Cnternet is every%here, %ouldn8t a cyber%ar be a total %arH Once %e started believin: this, the %hole %orld seemed to confirm it& An online virus %as used by Csrael and the 3nited +tates to disable a uranium(enrichment facility in Cran& 2hina uses a facility to steal data from the 7est& France, 1ritain and the 3nited +tates, as %e8ve recently learned, are mass(harvestin: the online communications and phone calls of forei:ners (and possibly their o%n citi)ens*, and the man %ho revealed this, Gd%ard +no%den, is in the midst of a :lobe(trottin: fli:ht across the settin:s of vinta:e James 1ond movies& Cf this is %hat cyber cold %ar loo4s li4e, ho% horrid %ould real cyber%ars beH 7e can ima:ine them, and ma4e movies about them, but the reality is far more mundane and less threatenin:& 9hat8s the conclusion made by 9homas -id, an e5pert on cybersecurity and intelli:ence at the department of %ar studies at Kondon8s >in:8s 2olle:e& ;is forthcomin: boo48s strai:ht(up title, 2yber 7ar 7ill 0ot 9a4e Place, is a call for sanity# 9here is no distinct online %orld, and the many forms of online crime and mischief are not a threat to our e5istence or our civili)ation& 2yber %ar has never happened in the past, it does not occur in the present, and it is hi:hly unli4ely that it %ill disturb our future, /r& -id %rites& Cnstead, he says, the opposite is ta4in: place# a computer(enabled assault on violence itself& All past and present political cyberattac4s in contrast to computer crime are sophisticated versions of three activities that are as old as human conflict itself# sabota:e, espiona:e and subversion N Cn several %ays, cyberattac4s are not creatin: more vectors of violent interactionR rather, they are ma4in: previously violent interactions less violent& People %ho understand distributed systems and net%or4s reali)e this# Ct may be possible, if hundreds of people %or4 on the problem for years, to dama:e a sin:le centrifu:e facility usin: a virus but still only if there8s also a human sabota:e a:ent placed on site& 9o destroy or disable an entire country8s or re:ion8s infrastructure usin: lines of code or electroma:netic pulses %ould be impossible or, at least, :iven the need for human a:ents at each tar:et, it %ould be the same as usin: bombs to do so (and bombs %ould be Muic4er and easier*& 9his is 6r& -id8s crucial messa:e# 9here is no distinct online %orldR it is simply part of the %orld, as much as the telephone or the hi:h%ay& 6efence of vital assets remains important, but there is no distinct cyberspace to be defended it is all of a piece& 9he dan:er, 6r& -id tells me from his office in Kondon, is that the myth of cyber%ar %ill lead us to believe that online security is a matter for the military a notion that the military, ea:er for fundin:, is all too %illin: to promote&

Nuclear War MICHIGAN 7WS 2013 212/221 ;ypin: a cyber%ar doesn8t necessarily create 2hinese hac4ers comin: in and harmin: citi)ens, he says& 7hat8s more realistic is that if %e couch the problem in a martial lan:ua:e %ar and peace, offence and defence in a military conte5t then %e thin4 that the a:encies that are traditionally in char:e of that are best placed to deal %ith the problem, because it8s %ar& 1ut if you put intelli:ence a:encies in char:e of cybersecurity, they8re more li4ely to apply an offensive mindset to the problem than ministries of interior& Ct is %orth spendin: money to ma4e our computers, and the devices that control our machinery, secure from spyin: and vandalism& 1ut that8s not %ar, and it shouldn8t be a 'ob for the %arriors&

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,error&sm2 C'3er2,error
No c'3er terror t(reat @&%F 13 -eader 7ar +tudies at >in:8s 2olle:e (9homas, 9he =reat 2yberscare, Forei:n Policy, "$!", http#$$%%%&forei:npolicy&com$articles$2 !"$ "$!"$theL:reatLcyberscare*$$QP 9he Penta:on, no doubt, is the master of ra))mata))& Keon Panetta set the tone by %arnin: a:ain and a:ain of an impendin: <cyber Pearl ;arbor&< Just before he left the Penta:on, the 6efense +cience 1oard delivered a remar4able report, -esilient /ilitary +ystems and
the Advanced 2yber 9hreat& 9he paper seemed obsessed %ith ma4in: yet more drastic historical comparisons# <9he cyber threat is serious,< the tas4 force %rote, <%ith potential conseMuences similar to the nuclear threat of the 2old 7ar&< 9he manifestations of an all(out nuclear %ar %ould be different from cyberattac4, the Penta:on scientists helpfully ac4no%led:ed& 1ut then they added, :ravely, that <in the end, the e5istential impact on the 3nited +tates is the same&< A reminder is in order# 9he %orld has yet to %itness a sin:le casualty , let alone fatality , as a result of a

computer attac4& +uch statements are a plain insult to survivors of ;iroshima& +ome sections of the Penta:on document offer such eye(%aterin:ly shoddy analysis that they %ould not have passed as an /A dissertation in a self(respectin: political science department& 1ut in the current debate it seemed to ma4e sense& After all a bit of fear helps to claim (( or
4eep (( scarce resources %hen austerity and cuttin: seems out(of(control& 9he report recommended allocatin: the stout sum of [2&D billion for its top t%o priorities alone, protectin: nuclear %eapons a:ainst cyberattac4s and determinin: the mi5 of %eapons necessary to punish all(out cyber(a::ressors& 9hen there are private computer security companies& +uch firms, naturally, are 4een to poc4et some of the :overnmentAs money earmar4ed for cybersecurity& And hype is the means to that end& /andiantAs much(noted report lin4in: a coordinated and coherent campai:n of espiona:e attac4s dubbed Advanced Persistent 9hreat !, or <AP9!,< to a unit of the 2hinese military is a case in point# 9he firm offered far more details on attributin: attac4s to the 2hinese than the intelli:ence community has ever done, and the company should be commended for ma4in: the report public& 1ut instead of usin: coc4y and over(confident lan:ua:e, /andiantAs analysts should have used 7ords of Gstimative Probability, as professional intelli:ence analysts %ould have done& An e5ample is the reportAs conclusion, %hich describes AP9!As %or4# <Althou:h they control systems in do)ens of countries, their attac4s ori:inate from four lar:e net%or4s in +han:hai (( t%o of %hich are allocated directly to the Pudon: 0e% Area,< the report found& 3nit F!"?B of the PeopleAs Kiberation Army is also in Pudon:& 9herefore, /andiantAs computer security specialists concluded, the t%o %ere identical# <=iven the mission, resourcin:, and location of PKA 3nit F!"?B, %e conclude that PKA 3nit F!"?B is AP9!&< 1ut the report conspicuously does not mention that Pudon: is not a small nei:hborhood (<ri:ht outside of 3nit F!"?BAs :ates<* but in fact a vast city landscape t%ice the si)e of 2hica:o& /andiantAs report %as useful and many attac4s indeed ori:inate in 2hina& 1ut the company should have been more careful in its overall

assessment of the available evidence, as the computer security e5pert Jeffrey 2arr and others have pointed out& 9he firm made it too easy
for 1ei'in: to dismiss the report& /y class in cybersecurity at >in:As 2olle:e Kondon started po4in: holes into the report after !D minutes of red(teamin: it (( the 0e% Por4 9imes didnAt& 7hich leads to the ne5t point# 9he media %ant to sell copy throu:h threat inflation & <Cn 2yberspace, 0e% 2old 7ar,< the headline %riters at the 9imes intoned in late February& <9he 3&+& is not ready for a cyber%ar,< shrie4ed the 7ashin:ton Post earlier this %ee4& Cnstead of callin: out the above(mentioned Penta:on report, the paper actually published t%o supportive articles on it and pointed out that a ma'or offensive cyber capability no% seemed essential <in a %orld a%ash in cyber(espiona:e, theft and disruption&< 9he Post should have reminded its readers that the only military(style cyberattac4 that has actually created physical dama:e (( +tu5net (( %as actually

e5ecuted by the 3nited +tates :overnment& 9he 9imes, li4e%ise, should have as4ed tou:h Muestions and pointed to some of the evidential problems in the /andiant reportR instead, it published %hat appeared li4e an ele:ant press release for the firm& On issues of cybersecurity, the nationAs fiercest %atchdo:s too often loo4 li4e hand(tame puppies ea:er to lap up stories from private firms as %ell as anonymous sources in the security establishment& Finally, the intelli:ence community ta:s alon: %ith the hype because the 0+A and 2CA are still traumati)ed by missin: ?$!!& /issin: a <cyber ?$!!< %ould be truly catastrophic for
AmericaAs spies, so errin: on the side of caution seems the rational choice& Pes, 6irector of 0ational Cntelli:ence James 2lapperAs recent testimony %as more nuanced than reported and toned do%n the threat of a very serious cyberattac4& 1ut at the same time AmericaAs top spies are not as forthcomin: %ith more detailed information as they could be& 7e 4no% that the intelli:ence community, especially in the 3nited +tates, has far better

information, better sources, better e5pertise, and better analysts than private companies li4e +ymantec, /cAfee, and >aspers4y Kab& 1ut for a number of reasons they 4eep their findin:s and their analysis classified& 9his means that the Muality of the public debate suffers, as e5perts as %ell as 'ournalists have no choice but to rely on industry reports of sometimes Muestionable Muality or anonymous informants %hose veracity is hard to assess& No c'3er terror2 t(e&r &mpacts are all ('pe @&%F 13 -eader 7ar +tudies at >in:8s 2olle:e (9homas, 9he =reat 2yberscare, Forei:n Policy, "$!", http#$$%%%&forei:npolicy&com$articles$2 !"$ "$!"$theL:reatLcyberscare*$$QP 9he tra:edy is that Obama actually has it ri:ht# +omethin: needs to be done, ur:ently& 1ut 7ashin:tonAs hi:h(octane mi5 of profiteerin:, protectiveness, and politics is sadly counterproductive for four reasons# First, the hype actually ma4es it harder to focus on crucial en:ineerin: details& +ecurity standards in industrial control systems and +2A6A net%or4s (( the net%or4s that control stuff that physically moves
around, from trains to :as to elevators (( are shoc4in:ly lo%& 9he so(called Pro:rammable Ko:ic 2ontrollers %idely used in critical infrastructure are desi:ned to be safe and reliable in tou:h factory(floor conditions and harsh %eather, not secure a:ainst outside attac4& 9his yearAs +@(conference in /iami 1each, or:ani)ed by the small and speciali)ed security outfit 6i:ital 1ond, a:ain sho%cased ho% vulnerable these systems are& 1ut 7ashin:ton is too busy screamin: havoc and too ill(informed to do somethin: meanin:ful about concrete

en:ineerin: issues& Just sharin: information, as the inspector :eneral of the 6epartment of ;omeland +ecurity recommended in a report last month, is useful but it %ill not deliver security& 2onnectin: critical infrastructure that %as never desi:ned to be lin4ed to the Cnternet
is also not the root of the problem (( the built(in security fla%s and fra:ility of these systems needs to be fi5ed, as 6i:ital 1ondAs 6ale Peterson pointed

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out last %ee4 in response to the timid 6;+ report& 9he political dynamic behind this lo:ic is clear# 9he more is declared critical, the harder it becomes to act on the really critical& +econd, the hype clouds badly needed visibility& A fascinatin: pro'ect at Free 3niversity 1erlin has produced a vulnerability map& 9he map uses publicly available data from +hodan, the =oo:le for control system hac4ers, and adds a layer of information cra%led from the %eb to :eo(locate the systems that often should not be connected to the Cnternet in the first place& -ed dots on the map sho% those systems& 9he 3nited +tates loo4s as if it has the measles& 1ut note that the map is incomplete# Ct is biased to%ards =erman products, the pro'ectAs founder told me& Cf that fla% can be fi5ed, the 3nited +tates and other countries %ould loo4 as bloody red as =ermany does already& 9he 3&+& :overnmentAs

attention(absorbin: emphasis on offensive capabilities means it has very little visibility into %hat this vulnerability map %ould actually loo4 li4e& 9hird, sabota:e and espiona:e are rather different thin:s (( technically as %ell as politically&
+2A6A systems are hi:hly specific 4it, often old and patched to:ether over years, if not decades& 9hat means these systems are hi:hly specific tar:ets, not :eneric ones& Affectin: critical operations reMuires repro:rammin: these systems, not 'ust disruptin: themR the :oal is modifyin: output parameters in a subtle %ay that serves the saboteurAs purpose& 7ith +tu5net, the 3&+& :overnment provided the (( so far (( most e5treme and best(documented case study& 9he operation sho%ed that successful sabota:e that :oes beyond 'ust deletin: data is far more difficult than successful espiona:e# Ct reMuires testin: and fine(tunin: an attac4 over many iterations in a lab environment, as %ell as acMuirin: hi:hly specific and hard(to(:et tar:et intelli:ence& +tealin: lar:e volumes of intellectual property from a commercial competitor, by contrast, is a technically rather different operation (( there is little to no valuable CP hidden inside control systems& 9o put it bluntly# 2hina and others have a hi:h commercial incentive to steal stuff, but they have no commercial incentive to brea4 stuff& All threats are not created eMual& 7hatAs needed is nuance, sur:ical precision, differentiation, and

sober analysis (( not fun4, flap, and fluster& Finally, hype favors the offense over the defense& 9he offense is already se5ier than the defense& /any soft%are en:ineers %ho consider a career in public administration %ant to head north to the dar4
cubicle at Fort /eade, not bore themselves in the 6epartment of ;omeland +ecurity (( if they are not %or4in: happily in the =oo:leple5 on bouncin: rubber balls already& Cf the 0+A suc4s up most of the available talent and s4ill and puts it to %or4 on the offense, the defense %ill continue to suffer& 1y

overstatin: the threat, and by lumpin: separate issues into one bi: bad problem, the administration also inadvertently increases the resistance of po%erful business interests a:ainst a re:ulatory over(reaction & As President Obama mentioned in his +tate of the 3nion address, if %e loo4 bac4 years from no% and %onder %hy %e did nothin: in the face of real threats, the ans%er may be strai:htfor%ard# too much bar4, not enou:h bite & Status 8uo sol+es an' r&s# of an &mpact2 ne" le)&slat&on sol+es c'3er2%efense $uttF 13 Professor at the James /artin 2enter for 0onproliferation at the /onterey Cnstitute

for Cnternational +tudies (Pousaf, -abid -esponse, Forei:n Policy, /arch 22,

http#$$%%%&forei:npolicy&com$articles$2 !"$ "$22$rabidLresponse*$$QP 9he :overnment is already ta4in: steps to reMuire stricter standards in desi:nin: more secure operatin: systems& Kast month, President Obama si:ned an e5ecutive order and issued an accompanyin: presidential policy directive (PP6(2!* that calls for a voluntary public(private approach to address cyber(threats to critical infrastructure & 9he measures
appear to be a mi5ed ba:# 9hey encoura:e :overnment a:encies to share unclassified threat information %ith critical infrastructure operators, %hich is eminently sensible, but they also aim to impose mandatory re:ulations do%n the road, %hich may not be fle5ible enou:h to deal %ith rapidly mutatin: cyber(threats& 9he soundest solutions %ill li4ely come from innovation rather than le:islation& One promisin: avenue for improvin:

cybersecurity seems to be by mi:ratin: processin: and data to a secure <cloud &< Just as most of us place our money in a
ban4 and not under the mattress, the future of secure computin: mi:ht be in deterrin: cyberattac4s by holdin: a small encrypted share in a massive cloud& 9here is also a :ro%in: reali)ation that some norms or rules for cybersecurity are a :ood idea& For e5ample, this %ee4, 0A9OAs 2o(operative 2yber 6efense 2enter of G5cellence released rules :overnin: the conduct of cyberattac4s by its members& 3ntil recently, the 3nited +tates %as %ary of ne:otiatin: rules of the road for cyberspace, essentially claimin: that the la%s of %ar sufficed& 1ut follo%in: a series of %ell(publici)ed cyberattac4s a:ainst the 3nited +tates, the Obama administration no% favors establishin: :round rules for cyberspace , :oin: so far as beratin: 2hina for not abidin: by (lar:ely non(e5istent* international cyber norms& 9hat %onAt be easy (( the 3nited +tates %ould li4e to focus on cyber(espiona:e, %hile -ussia and 2hina %ant any rules to leave them free to censor the Cnternet (( but it is an essential step&

No c'3er terror2 no t(reats to %eclare a c'3er "ar2 means no t(reat of escalat&on WallaceF 13 Fello% of 2yber +ecurity at the 1roo4in:s Cnstitute (Can, 7hy the 3+ Cs 0ot in a 2yber 7ar, 9he 6aily 1east, /arch ! , http#$$%%%&thedailybeast&com$articles$2 !"$ "$! $%hy(the( u(s(is(not(in(a(cyber(%ar&html*$$QP 9he idea that America is in the middle of a cyber %ar isnAt 'ust la)y and %ron:& CtAs dan:erous& 9he %ar analo:y implies the reMuirement for military response to cyber intrusions& America :enuinely needs effective civilian :overnment cyber defense or:ani)ations %ith stron: relationships %ith the private sector and the active en:a:ement of an informed :eneral public& 2reatin: and even promotin: the fear of cyber %ar ma4es that more difficult & ;ere8s %hy# First, %hile the 3&+ fi:hts its %ars usin: the
hi:hly(trained professional %ithin the 3&+& Armed Forces, defendin: a:ainst cyber threats does not necessary reMuire military e5pertise or pro%ess& 9rue, most private individuals and corporations lac4 the 4no%led:e and trainin: needed to fi:ht off attac4s from elite 2hinese, Cranian and -ussian cyber %arriors& As a result, there is and %ill continue to be a pressin: need for hi:hly Mualified information security e5perts to help defend the lar:er 3&+& cyber landscape& 0onetheless, there are relatively simple %ays to ma4e it more difficult for the bad :uys %ithout

escalatin: to a %ar standin:& Cn 2

!!, the Australian 6efence +i:nals 6irectorate (their eMuivalent of the 3&+& 0ational +ecurity A:ency* sho%ed that by ta4in: 'ust four 4ey measures((%hitelistin: (i&e&, allo%in: only authori)ed soft%are to run on a computer or net%or4*, very rapid patchin: of applications and of operatin: system vulnerabilities, and restrictin: the number of people %ith administrator access to a system((BD percent of tar:eted intrusions can be prevented& 9hese mi:ht appear more li4e prophylactic public health measures than %arfare((and that8s the point& 9he

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3nited +tates does not need to declare %ar and call up the military to fend off cyber threats& +econd,

MICHIGAN 7WS 2013

people e5pect %ars to end and %hen they dra: on, often succumb to %ar fati:ue& People %ant to believe that victory is achievable& 2yber security, ho%ever, is a mission %ithout end& As a result, usin: the lan:ua:e of %ar may only serve to frustrate and mislead the public & 9he
fi:ht a:ainst cyber attac4s %ill never achieve a definitive, all(encompassin:, lon:(term victory& As more and different devices are connected to the Cnternet, the threat %ill continually evolve& 7hile technolo:ical countermeasures %ill surely improve, cyber attac4s %ill remain a very attractive means throu:h %hich to coerce, defraud, and potentially even harm us as our lives :ro% ever more dependent on the Cnternet& 9he problem %ith ^%ar8

terminolo:y is that it may breed frustration and contempt, and eventually complacency and cynicism & 9he :ro%in: use of sensational terms li4e electronic Pearl ;arbor((%hich in particular evo4es a horrific event that ended the lives of 2@ 2 sailors, airmen, and civilians((becomes as much a part of the problem as the solution & 1etter analo:ies (and public policy* are
needed to ensure that the public comes to ^o%n8 this cyber security challen:e as part of their daily lives& 9he 3nited +tates does not need to declare %ar and call up the military to fend off cyber threats& 9he third problem %ith the %ar analo:y is that it le:itimi)es e5pedients, especially

institutional ones& 9his :oes to the core of the on:oin: cyber le:islation debate& An important point of difference bet%een the advocates and
opponents of the failed +enate 2ybersecurity Act of 2 !2 %as about the role that the 0ational +ecurity A:ency (0+A* should play in information e5chan:e %ith industry& And %hile the recently relaunched ;ouse Cntelli:ence 2ommittee8s 2yber Cntelli:ence +harin: and Protection Act 2C+PA is carefully %orded to ac4no%led:e the centrality of the 6epartment of ;omeland +ecurity to its information(sharin: process, concerns still remain& Cnternet advocacy :roups li4e the 2enter for 6emocracy and 9echnolo:y have ar:ued that its provisions could %ea4en ;omeland +ecurity8s role in favor of more en:a:ement bet%een the private sector and the 0ational +ecurity A:ency& 7hether that is true or not((and 2C+PA advocates deny it((there are still those in 2on:ress %ho see :ivin: the problem to the 6epartment of 6efense as part of the ans%er& 0o% is not the time for e5pedients, ho%ever %ell intentioned& 9he 0+A certainly has a 4ey role to playR %hen dealin: %ith overseas threats, it %ould be self(defeatin: not to utili)e the

capabilities of the %orld8s most impressive si:nals intelli:ence or:ani)ation & Privacy concerns need to be balanced a:ainst
the potential for e5treme privacy loss %hen your data is spread across the %eb by cyber criminals or e5filtrated by forei:n intelli:ence operatives& Ct is also unrealistic, both financially and practically, to create a parallel or:ani)ation %ithin the 6epartment of ;omeland +ecurity& 9hat is %hy President Obama8s recent G5ecutive Order sensibly includes measures to %iden the pool of or:ani)ations that can benefit from %hat the 0+A 4no%s& ;o%ever, none of that means additional responsibility for America8s cybersecurity efforts should be put into military hands& 7hat is reMuired is a more effective 6;+, not a more customer(focused 0+A& 9he Muic4er the country builds up the civilian institutional capacity it needs for lon:(term cyber security, the better& Ct %ould be unfortunate indeed if the specter of cyber %ar :ave succor to those %ho favor further

boostin: the Penta:on8s and the Cntelli:ence 2ommunity8s responsibilities at the e5pense (in practice, if not in theory* of a non(military security a:ency such as 6;+& 9his is %ould be particularly true if the short(term effect %as a continued bloc4 on the
passa:e of much(needed cyber le:islation& ;o%ever, this is not 'ust a 2on:ressional problem& 9he Obama administration has also internali)ed the lessons from the last decade# in a time of %ar, it is relatively easy to :et fundin: for the military to ta4e on and complete a mission as opposed to buildin: ne% civilian capacity to handle the 'ob& Just as it %as %ith nation buildin: in CraM, so it is %ith cyber defense& 9he reported plan to establish national mission forces under the military8s 3&+& 2yber 2ommand (%hich is tas4ed %ith protectin: critical infrastructure* is an understandable bureaucratic response to a perceived need to defend the nation& 9he problem comes if nothin: more happens& 9he challen:e then becomes ensurin: that the necessary cyber defense architecture and robust civilian :overnment support shifts over to the private sector& 9hat %ill be difficult enou:hR the ban:in: of %ar(drums %ill ma4e it even harder to accomplish& 0ot that the 6efense 6epartment and 3&+& military should stay out of the cyber security business((Muite the opposite& 9he fourth and final reason %hy %e should be cautious in tal4in: about cyber %arfare is the ris4 that such imprecision leaves us ill(prepared to deal %ith the cyber elements of %ar %hen %e do have to confront them & 6irector of the 0+A and 2ommander of 3&+& 2yber 2ommand =eneral >eith Ale5ander not only has to continue to supply 3&+& leaders %ith top Muality strate:ic intelli:ence, he must also ensure the 3nited +tates is prepared to e5ploit cyber opportunities %hen the country does :o to %ar& At the same time, =eneral Ale5ander %ill need to ensure that 3&+& forces8 e5traordinary technolo:ical capabilities retain their ed:e in the face of the cyber attac4s that %ill very li4ely tar:et them %henever they ne5t :o into the field& 7hile =eneral Ale5ander and his or:ani)ations %ill remain ma'or contributors to any :overnment effort to fend off serious national threats, %e should also be mindful of the opportunity cost of ma4in: the 0+A and the 2yber 2ommand the super =ee4 +Muad for the private sector and the nation more :enerally& 9hese or:ani)ations must stay focused on their primary missions((defendin: 3&+& national security& -e'ectin: the application of the %ar metaphor to cybersecurity should not diminish the current challen:es faced by :overnments, the public, and cyber security professionals& ;o%ever, %hen a real cyber %ar is declared, it %ill be messy and dan:erous, and %e need to be prepared, especially on the home front& 9hat plannin: is best done deliberately, dispassionately and holistically& 6eclarin: %ar too early %ill undermine our

efforts and li4elihood of success&

No r&s# of e1t&nct&on2 &ts all e1a))erate% S&n)erF 12 6irector 2!st 2entury 6efense Cnitiative (Peter, 9he 2yber 9error 1o:eyman, Armed Forces Journal, 0ovember, http#$$%%%&broo4in:s&edu$research$articles$2 !2$!!$cyber(terror(sin:er*$$QP 1ut so far, %hat terrorists have accomplished in the cyber realm doesn8t match our fears , their dreams or even %hat they have mana:ed throu:h traditional means& 1ut so far, %hat terrorists have accomplished in the cyber realm doesn8t match our fears, their dreams or even %hat they have mana:ed throu:h traditional means& 9he only publicly documented case of an actual al(,aida attempt at a cyber attac4 %ouldn8t have even met the F1C definition& 3nder Muestionin: at
=uantanamo 1ay, /ohmedou Ould +lahi confessed to tryin: to 4noc4 offline the Csraeli prime minister8s public %ebsite& 9he same :oes for the +eptember denial(of(service attac4s on five 3&+& ban4in: firms, for %hich the Cslamist :roup C)) ad(6in al(,assam 2yber Fi:hters claimed responsibility& (+ome e5perts believe the :roup %as merely stealin: credit for someone else8s %or4&* 9he attac4s, %hich prevented customers from accessin: the sites for a fe% hours, %ere

the eMuivalent of a cro%d standin: in your lobby bloc4in: access or a :an: of nei:hborhood 4ids constantly doin: rin: and runs at your front doorbell& Ct8s annoyin:, to be sure, but nothin: that %ould
ma4e the terrorism threat matri5 if you removed the %ord cyber& And %hile it may ma4e for :ood headlines, it is certainly not in the vein of a cyber ?$!! or di:ital Pearl ;arbor& Gven the 2 E cyber attac4s on Gstonia, the most(discussed incident of its 4ind, had little impact on the daily life of the avera:e Gstonian and certainly no lon:(term effect& Alle:edly assisted by the -ussian :overnment, and hence %ell beyond the capacity of most terror

Nuclear War 21*/221

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or:ani)ations, the attac4s merely disrupted public(facin: :overnment %ebsites for a fe% days& 2ompare that %ith the impact of planes crashin: into the center of the 3&+& financial system, the Kondon sub%ay attac4s or the thousands of homemade bomb attac4s that happen around the %orld each year& Gven %hen you move into the %hat if side the dama:e potential of cyber terror still pales compared %ith other types of

potential terror attac4s& A disruption of the po%er :rid for a fe% days %ould certainly be catastrophic (thou:h it8s somethin: that 7ashin:ton,
6&2&, residents have lived throu:h in the last year& 6oes the Pepco po%er company Mualify as a cyber threatH*& 1ut, a:ain, in strate:ic plannin:, %e have to put threats into conte5t& 9he e5plosion of 'ust one nuclear bomb, even a 'ury(ri::ed radiolo:ical dirty bomb, could irradiate an American city for centuries& +imilarly, %hile a computer virus could %rea4 havoc in the economy, a biolo:ical attac4 could chan:e our very patterns of life forever& As one cyber e5pert said, 9here are \cyber] threats out there, but there are no threats that threaten our fundamental %ay of

life&

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MICHIGAN 7WS 2013

,error&sm2 Nuclear ,error&sm

A'son fl&ps ne)2 terror&sm &s not an e1&stent&al r&s# A'son 10 ( Professor of +trate:ic +tudies and 6irector of the 2entre for +trate:ic +tudies# 0e% Zealand at the Qictoria 3niversity of 7ellin:ton (-obert, After a 9errorist 0uclear Attac4# Gnvisa:in: 2atalytic Gffects, +tudies in 2onflict T 9errorism, ""&E, Francis T 9aylor*$$QP A terrorist nuclear attac4, and even the use of nuclear %eapons in response by the country attac4ed in the vrst place, %ould not necessarily represent the %orst of the nuclear %orlds ima:inable& Cndeed, there are reasons to %onder %hether nuclear terrorism should ever be re:arded as belon:in: in the cate:ory of truly e5istential threats& A contrast can be dra%n here %ith the :lobal catastrophe that %ould come from a massive nuclear e5chan:e bet%een t%o or more of the soverei:n states that possess these %eapons in si:nivcant numbers& Gven the %orst terrorism that the t%enty(vrst century mi:ht brin: %ould fade into insi:nivcance alon:side considerations of %hat a :eneral nuclear %ar %ould have %rou:ht in the 2old 7ar period& And it must be admitted that as lon: as the ma'or nuclear
%eapons states have hundreds and even thousands of nuclear %eapons at their disposal, there is al%ays the possibility of a truly a%ful nuclear e5chan:e ta4in: place precipitated entirely by state possessors themselves&

No &mpact to nuclear terror&sm &t %oesn7t escalate to e1t&nct&onL en#&nsF 13 editor of 7all +treet Journal Gditorial 1oard (;olman, Cs 1lac4mail, 7hoever Cs 1ehind Ct, AP- January, !?, 2 !"
http#$$stream&%s'&com$story$latest(headlines$++(2(F""??$++(2(2!FF D$*$$QP

9errorism in our %orld is a parado5& 9errorism creates hu:e problems for politicians and statesmen even if, ob'ectively, the cost and casualties have no impact on the functionin: of our civili)ation& 9he avera:e American is in more dan:er from a taco salad& Pet %e intuit the sta4es nonetheless&President Obama %as pilloried by some for sayin: to 1ob 7ood%ard that %e can absorb a terrorist attac4 & 0ot only can %e absorb an attac4 and 4eep functionin: as a society and democracy, but even in the %orst case of a nuclear attac4 our civili)ation %ould probably 4eep :oin: &Alas, another point has to be made& As events have played out, the CraM %ar appears not to have persuaded ro:ue re:imes that pursuin: terror %eapons, especially nuclear %eapons, is fatal to their interests& Cf anythin:, the CraM %ar may have done the opposite& No /at&n Amer&can terror&sm2not &n self2&nterestF )roups "ea# We&t9F 11 +enior Fello% of the 2enter for Political(/ilitary Analysis at the ;udson Cnstitute I-ichard, 7here are Katin America8s 9erroristsH, 0ovember ? http#$$%%%&pro'ect(syndicate&or:$commentary$%here( are(latin(america(s(terrorists(*$$QP
9he 2olombian army8s 4illin: of Alfonso 2ano, head of the -evolutionary Armed Forces of 2olombia (FA-2*, %ill not eliminate that country8s lar:est :uerrilla :roup anytime soon& 1ut it does partly illustrate %hy international terrorism has not established a ma'or presence in

Katin America& Kocal security forces, bolstered by :enerous American assistance, have made the re:ion a difficult place for forei:n terrorists to set up operational cells and other conditions also help to ma4e Katin America less vulnerable& One reason %hy the FA-2 has survived repeated blo%s to its leadership is the support that it receives from various :roups, perhaps includin: :overnment officials, in nei:hborin: Gcuador and Qene)uela& Fortunately , this bac4in: appears to have declined in the last year or soF follo%in: improvement in 2olombia8s relations %ith these countries& Another factor contributin: to the FA-28s survival has been its
transformation over the years from a revolutionary or:ani)ation into a narco(terrorist :roup that uses violence to support its criminal operations&

/any former terrorist and insur:ent :roups in the re:ion have under:one similar transformations over the last t%o decades& 9hese :roups, some %ith transnational reach, mostly en:a:e in narcotics traffic4in:, arms smu::lin:, and 4idnappin:& At %orst, they sometimes employ terrorist tactics (commonly defined as violence that deliberately tar:ets civilians*& Cn

2olombia, the FA-2 and the 0ational Kiberation Army (GK0* finance their operations throu:h dru: traffic4in:, 4idnappin:, and e5tortion& 9hese :roups mi:ht 4ill civilians, but their main tar:ets are the police and security personnel %ho threaten their activities& Katin America is distinctive in the recurrin: and broad overlap of mass movements professin: revolutionary :oals %ith transnational criminal operations& 9he Cnternet and modern social media are allo%in: these mass criminal movements to e5pand their activities beyond 4idnappin:, e5tortion, and traffic4in: in dru:s, arms, and people, to include fraud, piracy, information theft, hac4in:, and sabota:e& Qiolent mass movements remain in some Katin American countries, but, li4e the FA-2, they are typically heavily en:a:ed in or:ani)ed crime& 6ru: cartels and :an: %arfare may ruin the lives of thousands of innocent people, but they should not be seen as eMuivalent to the ideolo:ical revolutionaries %ho used to %rea4 havoc in the re:ion, or to contemporary mass terrorists& G5tra(re:ional

terrorist movements such as al(,aeda have minimal presence in +outh America, %ith little independent operational activity and fe% ties to local violent movements L At most, the t%o types of :roups mi:ht share operational insi:hts and revenue from transnational criminal operations& ;e)bollah has not conducted an attac4 in Katin America in almost t%o decadesL Cndi:enous or:ani)ed criminal movements are responsible for the most serious sources of local violence& Katin American countries :enerally are not a conducive environment for ma'or terrorist :roups& 9hey lac4 lar:e /uslim communities that could provide a brid:ehead for Cslamist e5tremist movements based in Africa and the /iddle Gast& 9he demise of military dictatorships and the spread of democratic re:imes throu:hout Katin America (e5cept for 2uba* means that even severe economic, class, ethnic, and

Nuclear War MICHIGAN 7WS 2013 21?/221 other tensions no% more often manifest themselves politically, in stru::les for votes and influence& 0o Katin American :overnment appears to remain an active state sponsor of forei:n terrorist movements& At %orst, certain public officials
may tolerate some forei:n terrorists8 activities and ne:lect to act vi:orously a:ainst them& /ore often, :overnments misapply anti(terrorist la%s a:ainst their non(violent opponents& For e5ample, despite si:nificant improvement in its human(ri:hts policies, the 2hilean :overnment has at times applied harsh anti(terrorism la%s a:ainst indi:enous /apuche protesters& Cndeed , Katin American terrorism is sometimes e5a::erated,

because :overnments have incentives to cite local terrorist threats to secure forei:n support, such as 3+ capacity(
buildin: fundin:& Just as durin: the 2old 7ar, %hen Katin American leaders %ere lavished %ith aid for fi:htin: communist subversion, :overnments see4 to fi:ht terrorist threats at America8s e5pense& Cronically, the stren:th of transnational criminal or:ani)ations in Katin America may act as a barrier to e5ternal terrorist :roups& G5tra(re:ional terrorists certainly have incentives to penetrate the re:ion& Gnterin: the 3+, a hi:h(value tar:et for some violent e5tremist :roups, from Katin America is not difficult for s4illed operatives& G5tra(re:ional terrorist :roups could also raise funds and collaborate operationally %ith local militants& 1ut Katin America8s po%erful transnational criminal movements, such as the :an:s in /e5ico that control much of the dru: traffic4in: into the 3+, do not %ant to 'eopardi)e their profits by associatin: themselves %ith al(,aeda and its affiliates& +upportin: terrorism %ould merely divert time and other resources from profit(ma4in: activities, %hile focusin: unsou:ht 3+ and other international attention on their criminal operations&

No r&s# of an attac#2 no e1pert&se or tra&n&n) 2 t(e&r e+&%ence &s all ('pe $'manF 10 +enior Fello% at the 1roo4in: Cnstitute8s +aban 2enter for /iddle Gast Policy

(6aniel K&, /ost 9errorists Kac4 9rainin:, G5pertise, 9he Atlantic, June !@,
http#$$%%%&broo4in:s&edu$research$opinions$2 ! $ F$!@(terrorism(byman*$$QP
Cn the years after ?$!!, the ima:es %e %ere sho%n of terrorists %ere lar:ely the same# shado%y 'ihadists %ho, even %hen they %ere foiled, seemed al%ays to have come terrifyin:ly close to pullin: off a horrific attac4& 7e8ve all become familiar by no% %ith the stoc4 foota:e of 9alibs in blac4 shal%ar 4amee)es )ippin: across mon4ey bars or, more recently, perfectin: 4un: fu 4ic4s in some secret trainin: camp& Gven in the aftermath of the botched 9imes +Muare bombin: earlier this sprin:, the perception persists that our enemies are savvy and sophisticated 4illers & 9hey8re fanatical and hi:hly or:ani)edJt%in ideas that at once 4eep us fearful and help them attract ne% members& 1ut

this vie% of the 'ihadist community is %ildly off the mar4& 9o be sure, some terrorists are steely and s4illedJpeople li4e /ohamed Atta, the careful and %ell(trained head of the ?$!! hi'ac4ers& 9heir leaders and recruiters can be lethally subtle and manipulative, but the Muiet truth is that many of the deluded foot soldiers are foolish and untrained, perhaps even untrainable& Ac4no%led:in: this fact could help us tailor our counterterrorism prioritiesJand publici)in: it could help us erode the po%erful ima:es of stren:th and piety that
terrorists rely on for recruitin: and fundin:& 0o%here is the :ap bet%een sinister stereotype and ridiculous reality more apparent than in Af:hanistan, %here &t7s fa&r to sa' t(at t(e ,al&3an emplo' t(e "orl%7s "orst su&c&%e 3om3ersJ one &n t"o

mana)es to #&ll onl' (&mselfL An% t(&s success rate (asn7t &mpro+e% at all in the five years they8ve been usin: suicide bombers, despite the e5perience of hundreds of attac4sJor attempted attac4s& Cn Af:hanistan, as in many cultures, a manly
embrace is a time(honored tradition for %arriors before they :o off to face death& 9hus, many suicide bombers never even ma4e it out of their trainin: camp or safe house, as the pressure from these :roup hu:s tri::ers the e5plosives in suicide vests& Accordin: to several sources at the 3nited 0ations, as many as si5 %ould(be suicide bombers died last July after one such embrace in Pa4ti4a& /any 9aliban operatives are 'ust as clumsy %hen suicide is not part of the plan& Cn 0ovember 2 ?, several 9alibs transportin: an improvised e5plosive device %ere 4illed %hen it %ent off une5pectedly& 9he blast also too4 out the insur:ents8 shado% :overnor in the province of 1al4h& 7hen terrorists do e5ecute an attac4, or come close, they often

have security failures to than4, rather than their o%n e5pertiseL 2onsider 3mar Farou4 AbdulmutallabJthe 0i:erian Joc4strap Jihadist %ho boarded a 6etroit(bound 'et in Amsterdam %ith a suicidal plan in his head and some e5plosives in his under%ear& Althou:h the media colored the incident as a sophisticated al(,aeda plot, Abdulmutallab sho%ed no :reat s4ill or cunnin:, and simple safe:uards should have 4ept him off the plane in the first place& ;e %as, after all, travelin: %ithout lu::a:e, on a
one(%ay tic4et that he purchased %ith cash& All of this %hile bein: on a 3&+& :overnment %atch list& Fortunately, Abdulmutallab, a colle:e(educated en:ineer, failed to detonate his underpants& A fe% months later another colle:e :rad, Faisal +hah)ad, is alle:ed to have crudely ri::ed an +3Q to blo% up in 9imes +Muare& 9hat plan fi))led and he %as Muic4ly captured, despite the fact that he %as reportedly trained in a terrorist boot camp in Pa4istan& Cndeed, thou:h many of the terrorists %ho stri4e in the 7est are %ell educated, their plots fail because they lac4

operational 4no%(ho% $or%er secur&t' %oesn7t sol+e root cause of terror&sm ;uc#ermanF 12 Author at the ;erita:e Foundation (Jessica, 1order +ecurity Alone 0ot

Gnou:h to +tem the 9ide of Qiolence, 9he Foundry, +eptember D,

http#$$blo:&herita:e&or:$2 !2$ ?$ D$border(security(alone(not(enou:h(to(stem(the(tide(of(violence$*$$QP Cn response to this continued violence, the 9e5as 6epartment of A:riculture calls for the federal :overnment to enforce our la%s and secure our nation8s borders& +imply enhancin: security on the 3&+& side of the border, ho%ever, is not nearly enou:h&+temmin: the tide of violence reMuires a multifaceted approach& 9hrou:h the /erhda CnitiativeJa three(year, [!&D billion anti(dru: assistance pac4a:e for /e5ico and 2entral AmericaJ the 3&+& has offered valuable support to /e5ican effortsR ho%ever, more must be done&2ombatin: the transnational criminal threat reMuires an inte:rated dru: strate:y for the 7estern ;emisphereJone that reco:ni)es that the re:ions dru: problems reach beyond /e5ico and into the Andes, 2aribbean, and 2entral America& Cn both /e5ico and 2entral America, the 3&+& can help our friends
and allies bolster la% enforcement and stren:then 'udicial reform in order to help halt impunity and corruption, and also %or4 to stren:then military(to(

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military ties& At the same time, endin:

MICHIGAN 7WS 2013

the cycle of criminality and violence %ill also reMuire efforts to stren:then education and le:itimate economic opportunities&2ertainly, none of this %ill happen overni:ht& /e5ico, and the rest of the re:ion for that matter, remains en:a:ed in a :enerational stru::le a:ainst the narcotics trade and the threat of 92Os& /e5ico and the 3&+& must be sure to reali)e that there is no silver bullet to endin: the %ar on dru:s& Gnhancin: 3&+& border security is not nearly enou:h& 2ounterin: the continued threat of violence reMuires that the 3&+& and its partners ta4e a truly multifaceted approach& !lan %oesn7t sol+e 3or%er secur&t'2 cr&m&nals can al"a's )et t(rou)( /&ll&sF 13 7riter for the ;ill (/i4e, =OP Ka%ma4er 7arns 9otal 1order +ecurity is Cmpossible =oal, 9he ;ill, June 2B, http#$$thehill&com$homene%s$house$" BD!"(rep(carter(total( border(security(is(impossible*$$QP A ;ouse -epublican ne:otiatin: a comprehensive immi:ration reform deal %arned Friday that full border security is impossible& -ep& John 2arter (-(9e5as* said the Sout(ern 3or%er &s s&mpl' too "&l% for la" enforcers to plu) all t(e )aps &n t(e f&)(t a)a&nst &lle)al &mm&)rat&onL PAn'3o%' t(at t(&n#s 'ou can totall' secure t(e Sout(ern 3or%er (as ne+er 3een to t(e Sout(ern 3or%erFW 2arter said& CAve been do%n there all my life, and CAm tellin: you, you can have a @ (foot %all and put machine :uns on it, and you canAt secure the +outhern border& 9hereAs too much %ild country& 0orth of 6el -io to the 1i: 1end is as %ild and ru::ed a country as there is in the 3nited +tates, he added, and itAs all o%ned by private individuals& ,error&sts aren7t pursu&n) nuclear attac#s WolfeF 12 Professor of Political +cience at 1oston 2olle:e, senior Fello% %ith the 7orld Policy Cnstitute at the 0e% +chool 3niversity in 0e% Por4 (Alan, Fi5ated by ^0uclear 9error8 or Just ParanoiaH, /arch 2E, http#$$%%%&hls%atch&com$2 !2$ "$2E$fi5ated(by(nuclear(terror(or('ust(paranoia(2$*$$QP Cf one %ere to read the most recent unclassified report to 2on:ress on the acMuisition of technolo:y relatin: to %eapons of mass destruction and advanced conventional munitions, it does have a section on 21-0 terrorism (note, not 7/6 terrorism*& 9he intelli:ence community has a very toned do%n statement that says several terrorist :roups N probably remain interested in \21-0] capabilities, but not necessarily in all four of those capabilities& N mostly focusin: on lo%(level chemicals and to5ins& 9hey8re tal4in: about terrorists :ettin: industrial chemicals and ma4in: ricin to5in, not nuclear %eapons& And yes, /s& +Muassoni, it is primarily al ,aeda that the 3&+& :overnment %orries about, no one else& 9he trend of %orld%ide terrorism continues to remain in the realm of conventional attac4s& Cn 2 ! , there %ere more than !!,D terrorist attac4s, affectin: about D , victims includin: almost !",2 deaths& 0one of them %ere caused by 21-0 ha)ards& Of the !!, terrorist attac4s in 2 ?, none %ere caused by 21-0 ha)ards& Of the !!,B terrorist
attac4s in 2 B, none %ere caused by 21-0 ha)ards&

Status 8uo sol+es nuclear terror&sm pre+ent&on MAAF */13 /inistry of Forei:n Affairs (=overnment intends to ratify 0uclear 9errorism 2onvention, 2 !", http#$$%%%&re:'erin:en&no$en$dep$ud$press$ne%s$2 !"$:overnment(intends(to(ratify(nuclear( ter&htmlHidSE" 2"@*$$QP 9he =overnment intends to ratify the Cnternational 2onvention for the +uppression of Acts of 0uclear 9errorism (0uclear 9errorism 2onvention*& One of the main purposes of the 2onvention is to prevent terrorist :roups from :ainin: access to nuclear %eapons and other nuclear material& 9he 0uclear 9errorism 2onvention is particularly important, :iven the serious conseMuences nuclear acts of terrorism can have& 9he 2onvention is an important part of international anti(terrorism efforts and non(proliferation %or4& 9he prospect of nuclear %eapons
fallin: into the hands of terrorists has al%ays been a ni:htmare scenario& 9he 0uclear 9errorism 2onvention provides a better and more comprehensive frame%or4 for the fi:ht a:ainst international terrorism, said /inister of Forei:n Affairs Gspen 1arth Gide& 9he 2onvention obli:es states

parties to ma4e it a punishable offence to possess or use radioactive material, nuclear material or nuclear devices %ith the intent to carry out acts of terrorism& 9he parties are obli:ed either to prosecute the offences or to e5tradite the persons concerned to other countries if reMuested to do so& 9he 2onvention is also desi:ned to promote police and 'udicial cooperation %ith a vie% to preventin:, investi:atin: and prosecutin: criminal offences of this 4ind& Iran "&ll not )&+e nuclear "eapons to terror&sts !osenF 0* Ford Cnternational Professor of Political +cience at the /assachusetts Cnstitute of 9echnolo:y (1arry, 7e 2an Kive 7ith a 0uclear Cran, Forei:n Policy(Alter0et, /arch " , http#$$%%%&alternet&or:$audits$"@2!?$*$$QP

Nuclear War MICHIGAN 7WS 2013 220/221 7ould Cran :ive nuclear %eapons to terroristsH 7e 4no% that 9ehran has :iven other 4inds of %eapons to terrorists and ali:ned itself %ith terrorist or:ani)ations, li4e ;e)bollah in Kebanon& 1ut to threaten, much less carry out, a nuclear attac4 on a nuclear po%er is to become a nuclear tar:et& Anyone %ho attac4s the 3nited +tates %ith nuclear %eapons %ill be attac4ed %ith many, many more nuclear %eapons& Csrael almost certainly has the same policy& Cf a terrorist :roup used one of CranAs nuclear %eapons, Cran %ould have to %orry that the victim %ould discover the %eaponAs ori:in and visit a terrible reven:e on Cran& 0o country is li4ely to turn over the means to its o%n annihilation to an uncontrolled entity& /at&n Amer&can relat&ons %on7t sol+e terror&sm Sor:F 05 Professor of +ociolo:y at the Federal 3niversity of -io de Janeiro (1ernardo, +ecurity, ;uman +ecurity, and Katin America, +3- Journal, http#$$%%%&sur'ournal&or:$en:$conteudos$arti:os"$in:$arti:oLsor'&htm*$$QP
9he decade of the !?? s, %hich %e could call a period of blue :lobali)ation, %as a period of democratic consolidation on the continent& 9he a:enda of the international system in :eneral, and of 3nited +tates$Katin America relations in particular, %ere dominated by economic

themes and by the e5pectation that :lobali)ation, as %ell as ne% forms of economic re:ulation, %ould :enerate a system of international political :overnance founded in multilateralism& 7ith the ne% millennium, analysts sa% that the tides %ere Muic4ly turnin:&
Gconomic :lobali)ation did not produce e5pressive :ains for a :ood part of the population of Katin American countries in this ne% era of :ray :lobali)ation& 9he re:ion presents its o%n %ea4nesses in the international arena& Cn past decades, Katin American countries %ere not

able to develop a shared vision of their security problems, nor a concrete a:enda for action& Gven more than Gurope or Japan, Katin American countries are free riders in the international scene& 7hile they en'oy the strate:ic umbrella of the 3nited +tates, Katin American countries often feel they are victimi)ed by the he:emonic po%er of their overbearin: nei:hbor from the
north& After the anti(communist stru::le, different countries presented perspectives and priorities that varied considerably in terms of reor:ani)in: the inter(American institutional system and definin: security priorities in the re:ion& 9he 3nited +tates is the only country on the continent that presents a proposal for hemispheric security, %hile Katin American countries tend to favor local perspectives$interests and a defensive posture& 9he %ay reality is perceived and conceptuali)ed plays a fundamental role in the social realm& 9he 1ush doctrine of %ar a:ainst terror may have a

ma'or impact on Katin American security systems and has the capacity to :alvani)e and polari)e Katin American politics around a love$hate a5is& Possibly one of the %orst conseMuences of the current 3+ anti(terror doctrine is that many Katin American politicians and intellectuals are able to :ain reco:nition and popularity only by critici)in: the 3nited +tates :overnment position& 9his allo%s them to avoid analy)in: and confrontin: the continent8s :enuine security problems, includin: the development of an effective security doctrine capable of facin: up to the 3+ anti(terror a:enda &

No r&s# of terror&sm lo" pro3a3&l&t' 3ecause of 3arr&ers Sc(ne&%m&llerF 042 analyst for =lobal +ecurity 0e%s%ire (2hris , G5perts 6ebate 9hreat of 0uclear, 1iolo:ical 9errorism, =lobal +ecurity
0e%s%ire, January !" 2

9here is an <almost vanishin:ly small< li4elihood that terrorists %ould ever be able to acMuire and detonate a nuclear %eapon, one e5pert said here yesterday (see =+0, 6ec& 2, 2 B*& Cn even the most li4ely scenario of nuclear terrorism, there are 2 barriers bet%een e5tremists and a successful nuclear stri4e on a ma'or city, said John /ueller, a political science professor at Ohio +tate 3niversity& 9he process itself is seemin:ly strai:htfor%ard but e5ceedin:ly difficult (( buy or steal hi:hly enriched uranium, manufacture a %eapon, ta4e the bomb to the tar:et site and blo% it up& /ean%hile, variables stre%n across the path to an attac4 %ould increase the comple5ity of the effort , /ueller ar:ued& 9errorists %ould have to bribe officials in a state nuclear pro:ram to acMuire the material, %hile avoidin: a stin: by authorities or a scam by the sellers& 9he material itself could also turn out to be bad& <Once the purloined material is purloined, \police are] :oin: to
be chasin: after you& 9hey are also :oin: to put on a hi:h re%ard, e5tremely hi:h re%ard, on :ettin: the %eapon bac4 or :ettin: the fissile material bac4,< /ueller said durin: a panel discussion at a t%o(day 2ato Cnstitute conference on counterterrorism issues facin: the incomin: Obama administration &

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+mu::lin: the material out of a country %ould mean relyin: on criminals %ho <are very :ood at e5tortion< and mi:ht have to be 4illed to avoid a double(cross, /ueller said& 9he terrorists %ould then have to find scientists and en:ineers %illin: to :ive up their normal lives to manufacture a bomb, %hich %ould reMuire an e5pensive and sophisticated machine shop& Finally, further technolo:ical e5pertise %ould be needed to snea4 the %eapon across national borders to its destination point and conduct a successful detonation , /ueller said& Gvery obstacle is <difficult but not impossible< to overcome, /ueller said, puttin: the chance of success at no less than one in three for each& 9he li4elihood of successfully passin: throu:h each obstacle, in seMuence, %ould be rou:hly one in " !$2 billion , he said, but for
ar:umentAs sa4e dropped it to " !$2 million& <CtAs a total :amble& 9his is a very e5pensive and difficult thin: to do,< said /ueller, %ho addresses the issue at :reater len:th in an upcomin: boo4, Atomic Obsession& <+o unli4e buyin: a tic4et to the lottery &&& youAre basically puttin: everythin:,

includin: your life, at sta4e for a :amble thatAs maybe one in " !$2 million or " !$2 billion&<

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