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RADIO 4 CURR !" A##AIR$ A!A%&$I$ United but #alling Apart "RA!$CRIP" O# A R CORD D DOCU' !"AR& Presenter( )uentin Peel Producer( $imon Coates ditor( !icola 'eyric* BBC +hite City ,-. +ood %ane %ondon +., /"$ -,-0 /1 ,/,/2 Broadcast Date( 3...-.-, Repeat Date( -3....-, Duration( ,/. 4-

Contributors in order of appearance( Robert 4agan( $enior associate at the Carnegie ndo5ment for International Peace Richard 6olbroo*e( former U$ ambassador to the U! Danielle Plet*a( 7ice8president for #oreign and Defence Policy $tudies at the American nterprise Institute in +ashington9 and former ad:iser to $enator ;essie 6elms. Chris Patten( uropean Commissioner for <ternal Relations. "ed =alen Carpenter( 7ice president for Defence and #oreign Policy $tudies at +ashington>s Cato Institute ;a:ier $olana( 6igh Representati:e of the uropean Union "herese Delpech( $enior research fello5 at C RI9 international research centre in Paris. Da:id 'alone( #ormerly Canadian ambassador to the U!.

A!A%&$I$ ( United but #alling Apart? )uentin Peel "he prospect of 5ar in Ira@ remains :ery real9 but President =eorge +. Bush>s call for regime change has caused deep misgi:ings in urope. It>s prompted tal* of a fundamental rift in transatlantic relations. Around the +hite 6ouse9 =ermany>s Chancellor =erhardt $chroeder is accused of e<ploiting crude anti Americanism. In urope9 America is all too often depicted as a bullying hegemon. "he transatlantic alliance that 5as the bul5ar* of the +est in the cold 5ar seems to be in disarray. $o 5hat>s gone 5rong? Robert 4agan9 senior associate at the Carnegie ndo5ment for International Peace. ROB R" 4A=A! "he goal of the cold 5ar 5as to maintain the unity and cohesi:eness of the +est. After the cold 5ar9 there>s really nothing that ma*es the cohesion of the +est as high a priority and so I 5ould say9 on both sides of the Atlantic9 there has been a mo:ement a5ay from the idea that 5estern unity is the number one goal. #or urope9 the priority has been urope9 for the United $tates no5 the priority is its 5ar on terrorism. )uentin Peel Robert 4agan>s one of the most articulate conser:ati:e thin*ers influencing +ashington today9 and author of a trenchant analysis of the transatlantic di:ide entitled Po5er and +ea*ness. 6e sees the 5estern solidarity of the cold 5ar era as an aberration. "ransatlantic competition is the natural state of affairs and the strategic di:ision bet5een the former allies can only gro5. But.. RIC6ARD 6O%BROO4 +or*ing 5ith the uropeans is incredibly frustrating9 5or*ing against them is pointless. )uentin Peel Richard 6olbroo*e9 former U$ ambassador to the U!. RIC6ARD 6O%BROO4 "hose people 5ho are 5riting that the gap bet5een +ashington and urope is gro5ing are actually creating more of a problem than e<ists. +e ha:e to step bac* and remember the basic fact that9 in the community of nations9 such as it is9 the United $tates9 Canada and the uropean nations form the largest single bloc* of countries 5ith li*e minded :alues and li*e minded political and economic systems. If 5e stand together9 5e are undefeatable9 and if 5e split9 the conse@uences are :ery high. )uentin Peel Dic* 6olbroo*e hopes that the :alues 5e share 5ill pre:ail o:er the underlying differences. As peacema*er in the Bal*ans9 he 5as an acerbic critic of uropean political muddle but as a practitioner9 he *no5s the perils of failure to cooperate. $o are 5e on the

threshold of a ne5 era of transatlantic ri:alry and resentment9 or are the shared :alues of urope and America resilient enough to o:ercome our differences. Does America care 5hat urope thin*s today and is urope doing enough to get its :oice heard in +ashington. "here>s a 5idening gap bet5een urope and America o:er the campaign against terrorism. "he uropean Union is united in 5anting America to act by international rules9 through the U!. "heir recent summit spats aside9 that>s as true of Britain9 5hich supports the U$ on Ira@9 as it is of #rance9 5hich 5ants to a:oid 5ar. Both agree U! bac*ing 5ill ensure international support. 6o5 does that stri*e Danielle Plet*a9 :ice8president for #oreign and Defence Policy $tudies at the American nterprise Institute in +ashington9 and former ad:iser to $enator ;essie 6elms9 the arch conser:ati:e e< chairman of the $enate #oreign Relations Committee. DA!I %% P% "4A If that>s 5hat people at the U! are e<cited about then good for them. At the end of the day9 nobody should ma*e any mista*e9 $addam 6ussein is going to be gone. If the U! 5ants to ma*e itself a rele:ant part of that9 super. It>s really more up to the U! than it is up to the United $tates. )uentin Peel &es and then of course you hit the so called legality problem I suppose 5here Ira@ is a member state of the United !ations9 and the United !ations could ne:er sanction a deliberate effort to change the regime in a member state. DA!I %% P% "4A It>s a5fully unfair that I can>t roll my eyes on radio. &es Ira@ is a member state and yes9 in the general assembly9 each state is e@ual to each other state9 but the bottom line is that in international foreign policy sometimes you ha:e to get rid of people 5ho are bad if they are not going to 5or* 5ithin international norms9 and if that>s not 5hat ma*es the United !ations happy then9 unfortunately9 the United !ations isn>t going to be rele:ant to this part of the process. )uentin Peel "he decepti:ely simple idea of getting rid of bad people is precisely 5hat 5orries many leading uropeans. Chris Patten9 uropean Commissioner for <ternal Relations9 has been one of the strongest ad:ocates of +ashington courting the U!. C6RI$ PA"" ! If you>re going to succeed in a :enture as fraught 5ith difficulty as dealing 5ith 5eapons of mass destruction in Ira@9 you>re 5ell ad:ised to ha:e the broadest possible coalition of support. )uentin Peel I *no5 you>:e argued :ery po5erfully for the U$ to accept a multi lateral frame5or* and indeed to operate through the United !ations but don>t you thin* the e<perience of the past si< 5ee*s o:er Ira@9 o:er the

difficulty in getting common ground for action against Ira@9 pro:es you 5rong. C6RI$ PA"" ! !o I don>t9 I don>t thin* that America can define its o5n national interest entirely in terms of rules 5hich other people ha:e to play by9 but that America doesn>t9 because if you>re the biggest *id on the bloc*9 if you>re the only super po5er around9 you ha:e to lean o:er bac*5ards9 I thin*9 to demonstrate that you>re trying to consult9 that you>re trying to bring people along 5ith you9 rather than simply laying do5n the la5. )uentin Peel Respecting multi lateral institutions can help restrain the U$ and earn it legitimacy. It>s also popular among ordinary Americans. 6o5 far does "ed =alen Carpenter9 :ice president for Defence and #oreign Policy $tudies at +ashington>s Cato Institute9 thin* there>s been a real change of heart. " D =A% ! CARP !" R "he United $tates 5ill pursue the multi lateral approach 5hen it is con:enient9 but U$ policy ma*ers are not li*ely to allo5 a commitment to multilateralism to get in the 5ay of *ey U$ policy obAecti:es. "he uropeans and a good many other nations round the 5orld see multilateralism as the only reliable mechanism to restrain the United $tates9 other5ise the United $tates certainly has enough po5er to do 5hate:er it 5ishes in the international system. +hat America>s allies do not fully understand is that American policy ma*ers increasingly realise that. "he United $tates is beginning to act the part of a global empire9 an empire 5ith global interests. "he uropean po5ers and some other countries 5ant the United $tates to be the tethered hegemon9 they 5ant the United $tates to play the role of global policeman to secure order in :arious parts of the 5orld9 but they 5ant a *ey :oice in determining U$ policy. I 5ould argue they can>t ha:e it both 5ays9 an America that is strong enough to do e:erything in the 5orld is also strong enough to ignore the obAections of its allies. )uentin Peel uropean enthusiasm for America as the global policeman may be on the 5ane but tethering the hegemon re@uires ma*ing those allied obAections sound li*e Aoint obAecti:es. "hat>s a delicate tas*. It calls for all the diplomatic s*ills of ;a:ier $olana as the U>s high representati:e in Brussels and foreign affairs supremo. "he uropeans doubts about American refle<es in the campaign against terrorism need to be carefully presented. ;A7I R $O%A!A +e ha:e a different sense of 5here the centre of gra:ity of the fight against terrorism should be. "here>s no doubt that in some occasions military action 5ill be necessary9 but 5e ha:e been pressing that other elements of the political acti:ity 5ould be absolutely fundamental if 5e 5ant to defeat terrorism and to put

an e<ample9 cooperation9 honest cooperation9 rapid cooperation on intelligence9 rapid cooperation on financial aid. All these type of things are probably much more important to defeat the actual challenge of the terrorism than some military operation that may be needed. )uentin Peel But do you thin* that +ashington9 that the U$ administration9 does not understand that. ;A7I R $O%A!A It depends 5ith 5hom you tal* but it seems to me that again the military component of the battle has dominated more than other things9 at least in the public debate. )uentin Peel 'ost diplomatically put. "he uropeans concern is not Aust about the use of U$ military might9 but about the conse@uencesB potential disintegration of Ira@9 for e<ample9 in the 5a*e of forcible regime change. "hey fear they>ll be left to pic* up the pieces. Does Danielle Plet*a sympathise? DA!I %% P% "4A +hat I 5ish and 5hat I *eep ad:ocating to the uropean go:ernments that I tal* to is9 please9 come in and say Co*ay9 let>s say 5e accept and support 5hat you 5ant to do about $addam 6ussein. +e>d li*e to *no5 5hat you>re offering us in his stead9 tal* to us about the shape of the ne5 Ira@9 in your :ie59 and ho5 you>re going to ma*e it happenD. "hey ha:e not focused their diplomatic energies on those @uestions9 instead 5hat they ha:e said is C5ell9 first9 you can>t do this because it>s not o*ay 5ith the international community and 5hy aren>t you listening to us9 please listen to usD. "hat>s number one9 the sort of 5hining foreign policy 5hich is utterly ineffecti:e in +ashington and is :ie5ed 5ith great contempt. !umber t5o9 they are saying Cdon>t do it because Ira@ 5ill fall apartD... all :ery negati:e messages )uentin Peel !ot much sympathy or understanding there. !eo conser:ati:es li*e Danielle Plet*er don>t seem to see the do5nside of military force. "hey don>t belie:e Ira@ 5ill fall apart9 but if there is a post $addam game plan in +ashington9 it has yet to be re:ealed. $o it seems the gap in perceptions and conclusions bet5een uropean go:ernments and the U$ administration really is :ery 5ide. 6o5 does Robert 4agan e<plain that. ROB R" 4A=A! In terms of military po5er9 the huge disparity in urope>s and America>s military capability lead9 it seems to me9 ine:itably9 to different attitudes about the use of military po5er9 but I thin* the disparity of po5er e:en leads to different assessments of threats. "he United $tates has a lo5er tolerance for insecurity because it can afford to ha:e a lo5er tolerance for

insecurity. uropeans ha:e a higher tolerance for someone li*e $addam 6ussein because9 after all9 5hat can the uropeans do about it. )uentin Peel America is from 'ars9 urope is from 7enus. But is the disparity of po5er all that is di:iding them. #or fifty years the so:iet threat held urope and America together. urope 5as on the front line9 but America pro:ided the real shield. "hey>:e adapted in :ery different 5ays. ROB R" 4A=A! urope has gone through a :ery significant e<perience of mo:ing beyond the nation state and creating super national institutions. "he U is a remar*able e<periment in allo5ing international la5 to determine international relations rather than po5er and po5er politics. I thin* that the United $tates should 5elcome 5hat>s happened in urope9 but the United $tates has not had this e<perience. "he American e<perience of the past fifty years is one 5hich reinforces the :ie5 that9 although you ha:e ideals and although you>re trying to ad:ance an international order9 it can>t be done in the absence of po5er. )uentin Peel $o both partners ha:e multi lateral instincts9 but only urope has put them into daily practice. America has played a different po5er game9 but that po5er itself can mislead. $eptember the ..th pro:ed that America>s o:er5helming military might pro:ided no protection against the :iolent threats of a non state terrorist group such as Al )aeda. "herese Delpech9 senior research fello5 at C RI9 the international research centre in Paris9 is a specialist on @uestions of international security and 5eapons proliferation. "6 R $ D %P C6 On one side9 America is currently the only po5er 5ith the means and the 5ill to inter:ene e:ery5here in the 5orld. And9 to some e<tent9 it is almost impossible to be a direct ad:ersary for the United $tates because it>s much too po5erful. But on the other side I am con:inced that po5er9 particularly military po5er9 5here America is so strong today9 is more relati:e than e:er. And this is due to the ability of de:eloping countries or e:en non state actors to pose strategic challenges to de:eloped nations9 including the most de:eloped of them all. )uentin Peel =lobal terrorism has finally forced the de:eloped 5orld to focus on so called failed states 5here terrorist groups flourish. "a*e AfghanistanB peace*eeping and reconstruction are essential elements in see*ing to re:i:e national institutions and the rule of la5. Is there not a natural di:ision of responsibilities bet5een the U$9 using its military po5er to restore order9 and urope performing the tas* of nation building. Da:id 'alone9 formerly Canadian ambassador to the U!9 has a !orth American perspecti:e and a

sympathy for urope. DA7ID 'A%O! "he United $tates naturally ma*es a great deal of military po5er9 precisely because the uropeans and other countries li*e Canada ha:e no intention of trying to build themsel:es up to be able to counter balance the United $tates in the military sphere. "hey ha:e a great deal to offer in terms of post conflict reconstruction9 peace*eeping and so on. +hat the Ira@ debate today seems to be demonstrating is9 they ha:e the capacity to 5ithhold political support from the United $tates and the offer of burden sharing in the maAor international operations if the United $tates is un5illing to address their concerns9 and I thin* the uropeans ha:e underplayed 5hat they ha:e to offer and ha:en>t successfully articulated the message in +ashington. )uentin Peel urope may ha:e a recepti:e audience in +ashington if it see*s to emphasise and e<ploit the non military or not directly military contributions that it ma*es. After all9 the Pentagon is notoriously unenthusiastic about using U$ soldiers in peace*eeping. As Afghanistan sho5ed9 that>s 5here America needs allies. $o ho5 does ;a:ier $olana thin* +ashington can be persuaded. ;A7I R $O%A!A "his is not a @uestion of doing the public relations9 it>s a @uestion of producing results. I>ll tell you one 5hich is :ery9 :ery important9 the presence in 4abul9 5ho 5as going to ta*e care of the peacema*ing9 of peace enforcing9 of peace*eeping operation in 4abul. And the politically correct reasoning 5as 5ell9 some Islamic country 5ill ha:e to do it and9 as you *no5 :ery 5ell9 the Islamic states that finally 5ere deployed 5ere the United 4ingdom9 $pain9 Italy9 =ermany9 #rance. At the end9 5hen the chips are do5n9 the country that can help on these matters are the uropeans. )uentin Peel But are they 5ise to let the process of burden sharing become the rule9 5here America drops the bombs and urope applies the stic*ing plaster. Ira@ may be ne<t. "ed =alen Carpenter of the Cato Institute. " D =A% ! CARP !" R "here are some U$ policy ma*ers that li*e that di:ision of labourB I>m not sure the uropeans should li*e it. #or e<ample9 in Ira@9 it>s @uite possible that the U$ led military operation in Ira@ 5ill go @uic*ly and decisi:ely. "he aftermath is not going to be easy by anyone>s estimation. +hoe:er is in Ira@ to stabilise that situation is probably going to be there for a decade or longer. And the uropeans I thin* may ha:e to as* themsel:es 5hether this is a beneficial di:ision of labour9 if the United $tates goes into :arious regions and *ills people and brea*s things9 and the uropeans then get to clean up the mess time and time and time again9 and e<perience the resentment of populations that 5ant to determine their o5n destiny

free from outside interference. "hat 5ould seem to place the uropeans in an unen:iable neo colonial role and again9 U$ policy ma*ers may be perfectly content to pass along that burden. )uentin Peel Ouch. "hat sounds li*e a nasty ne5 form of the 5hite man>s burden. It may suit the U$ but nobody in urope 5ants to be branded as neo colonial. Dic* 6olbroo*e9 5ith his Bal*an e<perience under President Clinton9 doesn>t thin* such rigid burden sharing is a good idea either. But if transatlantic cooperation is going to function9 he has a pretty clear idea about ho5 it must be organised. RIC6ARD 6O%BROO4 +e ha:e to be the leader but 5e mustn>t decei:e oursel:es9 the uropeans ha:e carried a significant burden in the Bal*ans and in the peace*eeping force in Afghanistan9 there are Eero Americans. "he "ur*s are in the lead no59 replacing the British. "he =ermans and the Dutch are about to replace the "ur*s. And the Americans9 and this 5as a terrible mista*e on the part of the Pentagon9 ne:er participated in that peace*eeping force. American leadership is the *ey to a united effort. !ot e:ery uropean>ll follo59 not e:ery uropean 5ill follo5 as enthusiastically as others9 but forging these united fronts9 these coalitions9 something =eorge Bush $enior did :ery 5ell9 is 5here this administration has failed. )uentin Peel Dic* 6olbroo*e is partisan. But he>s right that the Bush team has been insensiti:e in its attitude to 5ould be allies9 and in its enthusiasm for so called coalitions of the 5illing 5here9 in the 5ords of Donald Rumsfeldt9 'r. Bush>s Defence $ecretary9 the mission 5ill determine the coalition. ;A7I R $O%A!A "hat for me is one of the9 the less attracti:e e<pressions that ha:e been produced in the last months. +e thought9 and 5e still thin*9 at least I still thin*9 that the United $tates and urope ha:e a coalition. "he clear e<ample 5as !A"O in 5hich they did co8operation. )uentin Peel ;a:ier $olana9 5ho 5as of course secretary general of !A"O before he mo:ed to the U. ;A7I R $O%A!A "herefore is not a need to thin* that the mission 5ill determine the coalition9 the coalition e<ists. It may not be fully used in a particular moment9 but it should be the place 5here this debate should ta*e place. "hat 5as a little bit of a disturbance if I may say9 of an irritant. )uentin Peel Clearly the idea that America chooses its allies as it li*es still ran*les. It all goes bac* to those days

after $eptember the ..th 5hen the !A"O partners declared their total solidarity. It 5asn>t ta*en up. $o has +ashington 5ritten off the alliance. !A"O>s changing9 but America seems uncertain 5hat it 5ants to do 5ith it. At U$ urging9 it>s all set to admit se:en ne5 member states at its summit in Prague in three 5ee*s> time9 but enlargement means the organisation is becoming more political and less military. Does "herese Delpech thin* it>s up to the Aob of bridging the transatlantic di:ide. "6 R $ D %P C6 It>s already a miracle to ha:e !A"O still ali:e more than ten years after the cold 5ar 5hile the glue9 the main glue has disappeared. !o59 more seriously9 if !A"O 5ants to be rele:ant in the eyes of +ashington from a military point of :ie59 and not only as a *ind of loose security institution9 there is an absolute necessity for the !A"O members to increase their defence budget and also to ha:e 5ithin !A"O9 and here it seems to me that the !A"O response force9 5hich is planned to be discussed in the Prague summit9 is absolutely necessary if 5e don>t 5ant to see !A"O sidelined increasingly in the different crises9 as 5e>:e seen in Afghanistan. )uentin Peel It>s clear that uropean go:ernments 5ant !A"O to sur:i:e9 e<pand and remain the central pillar of the transatlantic relationship. It>s the one organisation in 5hich America is bound to uropeB they sit round a single table. But America>s military might means that +ashington calls the shots. Does "ed =alen Carpenter thin* it>s a stable relationship. " D =A% ! CARP !" R +hat I see 5ith !A"O and its dri:e for e<pansion is :ery much a*in to a troubled marriage9 5here the parties ha:e less and less in common9 and they sense that9 and to sa:e the marriage they decide to ha:e a child. "hat is 5hat !A"O is doing by bringing in ne5 members. It creates the illusion of the alliance>s continuing rele:ance. But the U$ has made it increasingly clear that !A"O is rele:ant only if it is 5illing to go rather far out of area9 if it>s becoming a :ehicle for the defence of 5estern9 really U$9 interests outside of urope. I sense the uropean po5ers ha:e :ery little interest in pursuing that course of action because 5hat it 5ould mean is that !A"O 5ould become a :ehicle for dragooning the uropean po5ers into supporting U$ policies 5ith 5hich they may disagree in other parts of the 5orld9 most notably the middle east. )uentin Peel "ed =alen Carpenter puts his finger on the :ery different priorities that the allies no5 ha:e for the organisation. Any thought of !A"O operating in the middle8east 5ould alarm many uropean capitals and especially Berlin. But the uropeans seem to be hanging onto !A"O simply because it is there. "hey>re getting security on the cheap under the U$ umbrella. Chris Patten.

C6RI$ PA"" ! I thin* 5e cashed in the peace di:idend after the collapse of the $o:iet Union and the $o:iet empire rather too e<tra:agantly. I thin* it is @uite difficult for us to be ta*en as seriously as 5e should be 5hen :ery often9 our security pretensions or ambitions seem9 to borro5 a phrase from medie:al theologians9 li*e an idea in the mind of god9 rather than something 5hich is actually happening in the here and no5. )uentin Peel I sometimes 5onder that the Americans are defining their security threats in a 5ay that 5e>re simply not ready or 5illing to do. C6RI$ PA"" ! I don>t thin* that if 5e 5ere to cut our o5n le:els of de:elopment assistance in urope to American le:els and then to spend that amount sa:ed on increased armaments and armed forces9 5e 5ould necessarily ma*e the 5orld a safer place. I don>t thin* that greater po:erty and greater en:ironmental degradation 5ould ma*e the 5orld more stable. $o I thin* there is an important role for trade policy9 for de:elopment assistance9 as 5ell as for old fashioned containment in ma*ing the 5orld safer for democracy9 the rule of la5 and open mar*ets. )uentin Peel +e must spend more on the hard aspects of military defence9 but not at the e<pense of urope>s international role as a maAor source of soft security9 such as de:elopment assistance9 conflict resolution and nation building. "hat is urope>s distincti:e contribution. But is the message clear? In +ashington and !e5 &or*9 it seems as if uropean po5ers are too often pulling in different directions. Dic* 6olbroo*e e<perienced uropean common foreign policy firsthand9 as ambassador to the U!. RIC6ARD 6O%BROO4 "5o of the U>s members are permanent members of the $ecurity Council and to those t5o9 Britain and #rance9 the $ecurity Council membership is their definition of their global role. :ery inter:ie5 that President Chirac and #oreign 'inister 7illepain gi:e ma*es clear that for #rance9 the $ecurity Council presence9 the :eto is a central9 maybe the central fact of #rance>s position in the 5orld today. &ou ta*e that a5ay and #rance is a lesser po5er than =ermany. But 5hy are 5e sitting here today tal*ing about #rance not =ermany? Because of the $ecurity Council9 so a common foreign and defence policy is :ery unli*ely to e:er come through on maAor issues. urope has a long 5ay to go9 it doesn>t ha:e a foreign minister9 it doesn>t ha:e a central foreign ministry9 and although people tal* about it9 it isn>t going to 5or*. )uentin Peel "hat matters less than it may seem. In spite of its ob:ious military 5ea*ness9 and the lac* of a single

foreign policy9 urope has se:eral trac*s along 5hich it can successfully influence the solitary super po5er. One is at the U!9 the second is through !A"O9 and the third is in the combination of urope>s hard and soft po5er to promote stability in failed and failing states. !one of those trac*s is ade@uate in itself to tether the hegemon. "ogether9 they can complement American policy and9 on occasion9 restrain it. It>s a comple< relationship9 more so since the end of the cold 5ar9 but it is one that should be 5elcomed in +ashington. urope can pro:ide America 5ith a :ery helpful buffer in its global role and be a 5ise ally in demonstrating the ad:antages of stic*ing to the international rules. After all9 that is 5hat allies are for.