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REPORT ON CURRENCY DERIVATIVE

SANDEEP ARORA
ITM ,GURGAON

[Project report on Currency Derivatives]University School of Management


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ACKNOWLEDGEMENT

On the occasion of completion and submission of project we would like to


express our deep sense of gratitude to USM, KUK for providing us Platform of
management studies. We thank to our Chairman Dr.D.D.Arora, and Faculty members
for their moral support during the project.

We are too glad to give our special thanks to our project guide Mr. Shyam
Sunder for providing us an opportunity to carryout project on currency derivatives
and also for their help and tips whenever needed. Without his co-operation it was
impossible to reach up to this stage.

At last, I sincere regards to my parents and friends who have directly or


indirectly helped me in the project.

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CONTENTS
CHAPTER SUBJECTS COVERED PAGE
NO NO
1 Introduction of currency derivatives 4
2 Company Profile 7
3 Research Methodology 14
 Scope of Research
 Type of Research
 Source of Data collection
 Objective of the Study
 Data collection
 Limitations
4 Introduction to The topic 17
 Introduction of Financial Derivatives
 Types of Financial Derivatives
 Derivatives Introduction in India
 History of currency derivatives
 Utility of currency derivatives
 Introduction to Currency Derivatives
 Introduction to Currency Future
5 Brief Overview of the foreign exchange market 29
 Overview of foreign exchange market in India
 Currency Derivatives Products
 Foreign Exchange Spot Market
 Foreign Exchange Quotations
 Need for exchange traded currency futures
 Rationale for Introducing Currency Future
 Future Terminology
 Uses of currency futures
 Trading and settlement Process

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 Regulatory Framework for Currency Futures
 Comparison of Forward & Future Currency
Contracts
6 Analysis 52
 Interest Rate Parity Principle
 Product Definitions of currency future
 Currency futures payoffs
 Pricing Futures and Cost of Carry model
 Hedging with currency futures
Findings suggestions and Conclusions 66
Bibliography 68

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INTRODUCTION OF
CURRENCY DERIVATIVES

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INTRODUCTION OF CURRENCY DERIVATIVES

Each country has its own currency through which both national and international
transactions are performed. All the international business transactions involve an
exchange of one currency for another.
For example,

If any Indian firm borrows funds from international financial market in US


dollars for short or long term then at maturity the same would be refunded in
particular agreed currency along with accrued interest on borrowed money. It means
that the borrowed foreign currency brought in the country will be converted into
Indian currency, and when borrowed fund are paid to the lender then the home
currency will be converted into foreign lender’s currency. Thus, the currency units
of a country involve an exchange of one currency for another. The price of one
currency in terms of other currency is known as exchange rate.

The foreign exchange markets of a country provide the mechanism of exchanging


different currencies with one and another, and thus, facilitating transfer of purchasing
power from one country to another.

With the multiple growths of international trade and finance all over the world,
trading in foreign currencies has grown tremendously over the past several decades.
Since the exchange rates are continuously changing, so the firms are exposed to the
risk of exchange rate movements. As a result the assets or liability or cash flows of a

[Project report on Currency Derivatives]University School of Management


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firm which are denominated in foreign currencies undergo a change in value over a
period of time due to variation in exchange rates.

This variability in the value of assets or liabilities or cash flows is referred to


exchange rate risk. Since the fixed exchange rate system has been fallen in the early
1970s, specifically in developed countries, the currency risk has become substantial
for many business firms. As a result, these firms are increasingly turning to various
risk hedging products like foreign currency futures, foreign currency forwards,
foreign currency options, and foreign currency swaps.

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COMPANY PROFILE

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AnandRathi Securities Limited

AnandRathi (AR) is a leading full service securities firm providing the entire gamut of
financial services. The firm, founded in 1994 by Mr. AnandRathi, today has a pan India
presence as well as an international presence through offices in Dubai and Bangkok.
AR provides a breadth of financial and advisory services including wealth management,
investment banking, corporate advisory, brokerage & distribution of equities,
commodities, mutual funds and insurance, structured products - all of which are
supported by powerful research teams.

AnandRathi is a leading full service securities firm providing the entire gamut of
financial services. The firm, founded in 1994 by Mr. AnandRathi, today has a pan India
presence as well as an international presence through offices in Dubai and Bangkok.
AR provides a breadth of financial and advisory services including wealth management,
investment banking, corporate advisory, brokerage & distribution of equities,
commodities, mutual funds and insurance, structured products - all of which are
supported by powerful research teams.

The firm's philosophy is entirely client centric, with a clear focus on providing long
term value addition to clients, while maintaining the highest standards of excellence,
ethics and professionalism. The entire firm activities are divided across distinct client
groups: Individuals, Private Clients, Corporates and Institutions and was recently
ranked by Asia Money 2006 poll amongst South Asia's top 5 wealth managers for the
ultra-rich.

The offices of AnandRathi in 197 cities across 28 cities and it has also branches in
Dubai and Bangkok with more than 44000 employees. It has daily turnover in
excess of Rs. 4billion. It has 1,00,000+ clients nationwide. It is also leading
Distributor of IPO's

In year 2007 Citigroup Venture Capital International joined the group as a financial
partner.
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In India AnandRathi is present in 21 States:

AndhraPardesh , Assam, Bihar , Chhatisgarh, Delhi , Goa, Gujrat, Haryana Jammu &
Kashmir, Jharkhand, Karnataka, Kerala,,MadhyaPardesh, Maharashtra, Orissa, Punjab,
Rajasthan, Tamil Nadu, UttarPardesh, Uttranchal, WestBengal.

Mission

To be India's first multinational providing complete financial services solution


acrossthe globe

Vision

"To be a shining example as leader in innovation and the first choice for clients &
employees"

Milestones

• 1994:
Started activities in consulting and Institutional equity sales with staff of 15
• 1995:
Set up a research desk and empanelled with major institutional investors
• 1997:
Introduced investment banking businesses
Retail brokerage services launched
• 1999:
Lead managed first IPO and executed first M & A deal
• 2001:
Initiated Wealth Management Services
• 2002:
Retail business expansion recommences with ownership model
• 2003:
Wealth Management assets cross Rs1500 crores
Insurance broking launched
Launch of Wealth Management services in Dubai
Retail Branch network exceeds 50

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Products

• Equity & Derivatives


• Mutual Funds
• Depository Services
• Commodities
• Insurance Broking
• IPOs

Equity & derivatives brokerage

AnandRathi provides end-to-end equity solutions to institutional and individual


investors. Consistent delivery of high quality advice on individual stocks, sector trends
and investment strategy has established us a competent and reliable research unit across
the country.

Clients can trade through us online on BSE and NSE for both equities and derivatives.
They are supported by dedicated sales & trading teams in our trading desks across the
country. Research and investment ideas can be accessed by clients either through their
designated dealers, email, web or SMS.

Mutual funds

AR is one of India's top mutual fund distribution houses. Our success lies in our
philosophy of providing consistently superior, independent and unbiased advice to our
clients backed by in-depth research. We firmly believe in the importance of selecting
appropriate asset allocations based on the client's risk profile.

We have a dedicated mutual fund research cell for mutual funds that consistently
churns out superior investment ideas, picking best performing funds across asset classes
and providing insights into performances of select funds.

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Depository services

AR Depository Services provides you with a secure and convenient way for holding
your securities on both CDSL and NSDL.

Our depository services include settlement, clearing and custody of securities,


registration of shares and dematerialization. We offer you daily updated internet access
to your holding statement and transaction summary.

commodities

Commodities broking - a whole new opportunity to hedge business risk and an


attractive investment opportunity to deliver superior returns for investors.

Our commodities broking services include online futures trading through NCDEX and
MCX and depository services through CDSL. Commodities broking is supported by a
dedicated research cell that provides both technical as well as fundamental research.
Our research covers a broad range of traded commodities including precious and base
metals, Oils and Oilseeds, agri-commodities such as wheat, chana, guar, guar gum and
spices such as sugar, jeera and cotton.

In addition to transaction execution, we provide our clients customized advice on


hedging strategies, investment ideas and arbitrage opportunities.

insurance broking

As an insurance broker, we provide to our clients comprehensive risk management


techniques, both within the business as well as on the personal front. Risk management
includes identification, measurement and assessment of the risk and handling of the
risk, of which insurance is an integral part. The firm deals with both life insurance and
general insurance products across all insurance companies.

Our guiding philosophy is to manage the clients' entire risk set by providing the optimal
level of cover at the least possible cost. The entire sales process and product selection is
research oriented and customized to the client's needs. We lay strong emphasis on
timely claim settlement and post sales services.

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IPO

We are a leading primary market distributor across the country. Our strong performance
in IPOs has been a result of our vast experience in the Primary Market, a wide network
of branches across India, strong distribution capabilities and a dedicated research team

We have been consistently ranked among the top 10 distributors of IPOs on all major
offerings. Our IPO research team provides clients with indepth overviews of
forthcoming IPOs as well as investment recommendations. Online filling of forms is
also available.

Global Products

• Structuring of trusts / investment companies


• Offshore Mutual Funds
• Structured Products / Deposits including capital-guaranteed notes on
• Trading in global markets (Equities, Bonds, Commodities)
• Real Estate investments
• Alternative investments (including hedge funds and fund-of-hedge funds)

Our services

• Risk Management
• Due diligence and research on policies available
• Recommendation on a comprehensive insurance cover based on clients needs
• Maintain proper records of client policies
• Assist client in paying premiums
• Continuous monitoring of client account
• Assist client in claim negotiation and settlement

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Management Team

AR brings together a highly professional core management team that comprises of


individuals with extensive business as well as industry experience. Our senior
Management comprises a diverse talent pool that brings together rich experience from
across industry as well as financial services.

Mr. Anand Rathi - Group Chairman


Chartered Accountant
Past President, BSE
Held several Senior Management positions with one of India's largest industrial groups

Mr. Pradeep Gupta - Vice Chairman


Plus 17 years of experience in Financial Services

Mr. Amit Rathi - Managing Director


Chartered Accountant & MBA
Plus 11 years of experience in Financial Services

Why choose AR?

• Superior understanding of the Indian economy & markets


• Ability to structure and manage your tax and regulatory compliances
• Dedicated relationship team
• Unparalleled product range - Indian and Global

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RESEARCH METHODOLOGY

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RESEARCH METHODOLOGY

 TYPE OF RESEARCH

In this project Descriptive research methodologies were use.


The research methodology adopted for carrying out the study was at the first
stage theoretical study is attempted and at the second stage observed online trading
on NSE/BSE.

 SOURCE OF DATA COLLECTION

Secondary data were used such as various books, report submitted by


RBI/SEBI committee and NCFM/BCFM modules.

 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY


The basic idea behind undertaking Currency Derivatives project to gain
knowledge about currency future market.

To study the basic concept of Currency future


To study the exchange traded currency future
To understand the practical considerations and ways of considering currency
future price.
To analyze different currency derivatives products.

 LIMITATION OF THE STUDY

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The limitations of the study were
The analysis was purely based on the secondary data. So, any error in the
secondary data might also affect the study undertaken.
The currency future is new concept and topic related book was not available in
library and market.

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INTRODUCTION TO THE TOPIC

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INTRODUCTION TO FINANCIAL DERIVATIVES

“By far the most significant event in finance during the past decade has been the
extraordinary development and expansion of financial derivatives…These
instruments enhances the ability to differentiate risk and allocate it to those investors
most able and willing to take it- a process that has undoubtedly improved national
productivity growth and standards of livings.”

Alan Greenspan, Former


Chairman.
US Federal Reserve Bank

The past decades has witnessed the multiple growths in the volume of international
trade and business due to the wave of globalization and liberalization all over the
world. As a result, the demand for the international money and financial
instruments increased significantly at the global level. In this respect, changes in the
interest rates, exchange rate and stock market prices at the different financial market
have increased the financial risks to the corporate world. It is therefore, to manage
such risks; the new financial instruments have been developed in the financial
markets, which are also popularly known as financial derivatives.

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**DEFINITION OF FINANCIALDERIVATIVES**

 A word formed by derivation. It means, this word has been arisen by derivation.
 Something derived; it means that some things have to be derived or arisen out of

the underlying variables. A financial derivative is an indeed derived from the


financial market.

 Derivatives are financial contracts whose value/price is independent on the

behavior of the price of one or more basic underlying assets. These contracts are
legally binding agreements, made on the trading screen of stock exchanges, to
buy or sell an asset in future. These assets can be a share, index, interest rate,
bond, rupee dollar exchange rate, sugar, crude oil, soybeans, cotton, coffee and
what you have.

 A very simple example of derivatives is curd, which is derivative of milk. The


price of curd depends upon the price of milk which in turn depends upon the
demand and supply of milk.

 The Underlying Securities for Derivatives are :


 Commodities: Castor seed, Grain, Pepper, Potatoes, etc.

 Precious Metal : Gold, Silver


 Short Term Debt Securities : Treasury Bills
 Interest Rates
 Common shares/stock
 Stock Index Value : NSE Nifty

 Currency : Exchange Rate

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TYPES OF FINANCIAL DERIVATIVES

Financial derivatives are those assets whose values are determined by the value of
some other assets, called as the underlying. Presently there are Complex varieties of
derivatives already in existence and the markets are innovating newer and newer
ones continuously. For example, various types of financial derivatives based on
their different properties like, plain, simple or straightforward, composite, joint or
hybrid, synthetic, leveraged, mildly leveraged, OTC traded, standardized or
organized exchange traded, etc. are available in the market. Due to complexity in
nature, it is very difficult to classify the financial derivatives, so in the present
context, the basic financial derivatives which are popularly in the market have been
described. In the simple form, the derivatives can be classified into different
categories which are shown below :

DERIVATIVES

Financials Commodities

Basics Complex

1. Forwards 1. Swaps
2. Futures 2.Exotics (Non STD)
3. Options

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4. Warrants and Convertibles

One form of classification of derivative instruments is between commodity


derivatives and financial derivatives. The basic difference between these is the
nature of the underlying instrument or assets. In commodity derivatives, the
underlying instrument is commodity which may be wheat, cotton, pepper, sugar, jute,
turmeric, corn, crude oil, natural gas, gold, silver and so on. In financial derivative,
the underlying instrument may be treasury bills, stocks, bonds, foreign exchange,
stock index, cost of living index etc. It is to be noted that financial derivative is fairly
standard and there are no quality issues whereas in commodity derivative, the quality
may be the underlying matters.

Another way of classifying the financial derivatives is into basic and complex. In
this, forward contracts, futures contracts and option contracts have been included in
the basic derivatives whereas swaps and other complex derivatives are taken into
complex category because they are built up from either forwards/futures or options
contracts, or both. In fact, such derivatives are effectively derivatives of derivatives.

 Derivatives are traded at organized exchanges and in the Over The Counter

( OTC ) market :

Derivatives Trading Forum

Organized Exchanges Over The Counter

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Commodity Futures Forward Contracts
Financial Futures Swaps
Options (stock and index)
Stock Index Future

Derivatives traded at exchanges are standardized contracts having standard delivery


dates and trading units. OTC derivatives are customized contracts that enable the
parties to select the trading units and delivery dates to suit their requirements.

A major difference between the two is that of counterparty risk—the risk of default
by either party. With the exchange traded derivatives, the risk is controlled by
exchanges through clearing house which act as a contractual intermediary and
impose margin requirement. In contrast, OTC derivatives signify greater
vulnerability.

DERIVATIVES INTRODUCTION IN INDIA

The first step towards introduction of derivatives trading in India was the
promulgation of the Securities Laws (Amendment) Ordinance, 1995, which
withdrew the prohibition on options in securities. SEBI set up a 24 – member
committee under the chairmanship of Dr. L.C. Gupta on November 18, 1996 to
develop appropriate regulatory framework for derivatives trading in India, submitted
its report on March 17, 1998. The committee recommended that the derivatives
should be declared as ‘securities’ so that regulatory framework applicable to trading
of ‘securities’ could also govern trading of derivatives.

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To begin with, SEBI approved trading in index futures contracts based on S&P CNX
Nifty and BSE-30 (Sensex) index. The trading in index options commenced in June
2001 and the trading in options on individual securities commenced in July 2001.
Futures contracts on individual stocks were launched in November 2001.

HISTORY OF CURRENCY DERIVATIVES

Currency futures were first created at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) in
1972.The contracts were created under the guidance and leadership of Leo Melamed,
CME Chairman Emeritus. The FX contract capitalized on the U.S. abandonment of the
Bretton Woods agreement, which had fixed world exchange rates to a gold standard
after World War II. The abandonment of the Bretton Woods agreement resulted in
currency values being allowed to float, increasing the risk of doing business. By
creating another type of market in which futures could be traded, CME currency futures
extended the reach of risk management beyond commodities, which were the main
derivative contracts traded at CME until then. The concept of currency futures at CME
was revolutionary, and gained credibility through endorsement of Nobel-prize-winning
economist Milton Friedman.

Today, CME offers 41 individual FX futures and 31 options contracts on 19 currencies,


all of which trade electronically on the exchange’s CME Globex platform. It is the
largest regulated marketplace for FX trading. Traders of CME FX futures are a diverse
group that includes multinational corporations, hedge funds, commercial banks,
investment banks, financial managers, commodity trading advisors (CTAs), proprietary
trading firms; currency overlay managers and individual investors. They trade in order
to transact business, hedge against unfavorable changes in currency rates, or to
speculate on rate fluctuations.
Source: - (NCFM-Currency future Module)

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UTILITY OF CURRENCY DERIVATIVES

Currency-based derivatives are used by exporters invoicing receivables in foreign


currency, willing to protect their earnings from the foreign currency depreciation by
locking the currency conversion rate at a high level. Their use by importers hedging
foreign currency payables is effective when the payment currency is expected to
appreciate and the importers would like to guarantee a lower conversion rate. Investors
in foreign currency denominated securities would like to secure strong foreign earnings
by obtaining the right to sell foreign currency at a high conversion rate, thus defending
their revenue from the foreign currency depreciation. Multinational companies use
currency derivatives being engaged in direct investment overseas. They want to
guarantee the rate of purchasing foreign currency for various payments related to the
installation of a foreign branch or subsidiary, or to a joint venture with a foreign
partner.

A high degree of volatility of exchange rates creates a fertile ground for foreign
exchange speculators. Their objective is to guarantee a high selling rate of a foreign
currency by obtaining a derivative contract while hoping to buy the currency at a low
rate in the future. Alternatively, they may wish to obtain a foreign currency forward
buying contract, expecting to sell the appreciating currency at a high future rate. In
either case, they are exposed to the risk of currency fluctuations in the future betting on
the pattern of the spot exchange rate adjustment consistent with their initial
expectations.

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The most commonly used instrument among the currency derivatives are currency
forward contracts. These are large notional value selling or buying contracts obtained
by exporters, importers, investors and speculators from banks with denomination
normally exceeding 2 million USD. The contracts guarantee the future conversion rate
between two currencies and can be obtained for any customized amount and any date in
the future. They normally do not require a security deposit since their purchasers are
mostly large business firms and investment institutions, although the banks may require
compensating deposit balances or lines of credit. Their transaction costs are set by
spread between bank's buy and sell prices.

Exporters invoicing receivables in foreign currency are the most frequent users of these
contracts. They are willing to protect themselves from the currency depreciation by
locking in the future currency conversion rate at a high level. A similar foreign currency
forward selling contract is obtained by investors in foreign currency denominated bonds
(or other securities) who want to take advantage of higher foreign that domestic interest
rates on government or corporate bonds and the foreign currency forward premium.
They hedge against the foreign currency depreciation below the forward selling rate
which would ruin their return from foreign financial investment. Investment in foreign
securities induced by higher foreign interest rates and accompanied by the forward
selling of the foreign currency income is called a covered interest arbitrage.
Source :-( Recent Development in International Currency Derivative Market by
Lucjan T. Orlowski)

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INTRODUCTION TO CURRENCY DERIVATIVES

Each country has its own currency through which both national and international
transactions are performed. All the international business transactions involve an
exchange of one currency for another.
For example,

If any Indian firm borrows funds from international financial market in US


dollars for short or long term then at maturity the same would be refunded in
particular agreed currency along with accrued interest on borrowed money. It means
that the borrowed foreign currency brought in the country will be converted into
Indian currency, and when borrowed fund are paid to the lender then the home
currency will be converted into foreign lender’s currency. Thus, the currency units
of a country involve an exchange of one currency for another.

The price of one currency in terms of other currency is known as exchange rate.

The foreign exchange markets of a country provide the mechanism of exchanging


different currencies with one and another, and thus, facilitating transfer of purchasing
power from one country to another.

With the multiple growths of international trade and finance all over the world,
trading in foreign currencies has grown tremendously over the past several decades.
Since the exchange rates are continuously changing, so the firms are exposed to the

[Project report on Currency Derivatives]University School of Management


Kurukshetra University ,Kurukshetra Page 27
risk of exchange rate movements. As a result the assets or liability or cash flows of a
firm which are denominated in foreign currencies undergo a change in value over a
period of time due to variation in exchange rates.

This variability in the value of assets or liabilities or cash flows is referred to


exchange rate risk. Since the fixed exchange rate system has been fallen in the early
1970s, specifically in developed countries, the currency risk has become substantial
for many business firms. As a result, these firms are increasingly turning to various
risk hedging products like foreign currency futures, foreign currency forwards,
foreign currency options, and foreign currency swaps.

INTRODUCTION TO CURRENCY FUTURE

A futures contract is a standardized contract, traded on an exchange, to buy or sell a


certain underlying asset or an instrument at a certain date in the future, at a specified
price. When the underlying asset is a commodity, e.g. Oil or Wheat, the contract is
termed a “commodity futures contract”. When the underlying is an exchange rate, the
contract is termed a “currency futures contract”. In other words, it is a contract to
exchange one currency for another currency at a specified date and a specified rate in
the future.

Therefore, the buyer and the seller lock themselves into an exchange rate for a
specific value or delivery date. Both parties of the futures contract must fulfill their
obligations on the settlement date.

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Currency futures can be cash settled or settled by delivering the respective obligation
of the seller and buyer. All settlements however, unlike in the case of OTC markets,
go through the exchange.

Currency futures are a linear product, and calculating profits or losses on Currency
Futures will be similar to calculating profits or losses on Index futures. In
determining profits and losses in futures trading, it is essential to know both the
contract size (the number of currency units being traded) and also what is the tick
value. A tick is the minimum trading increment or price differential at which traders
are able to enter bids and offers. Tick values differ for different currency pairs and
different underlying. For e.g. in the case of the USD-INR currency futures contract
the tick size shall be 0.25 paise or 0.0025 Rupees. To demonstrate how a move of
one tick affects the price, imagine a trader buys a contract (USD 1000 being the value
of each contract) at Rs.42.2500. One tick move on this contract will translate to
Rs.42.2475 or Rs.42.2525 depending on the direction of market movement.

Purchase price: Rs .42.2500


Price increases by one tick: +Rs. 00.0025
New price: Rs .42.2525

Purchase price: Rs .42.2500


Price decreases by one tick: –Rs. 00.0025
New price: Rs.42. 2475

The value of one tick on each contract is Rupees 2.50. So if a trader buys 5 contracts
and the price moves up by 4 tick, she makes Rupees 50.
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Step 1: 42.2600 – 42.2500
Step 2: 4 ticks * 5 contracts = 20 points
Step 3: 20 points * Rupees 2.5 per tick = Rupees 50

BRIEF OVERVIEW OF FOREIGN EXCHANGE


MARKET

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OVERVIEW OF THE FOREIGN EXCHANGE MARKET IN INDIA

During the early 1990s, India embarked on a series of structural reforms in the foreign
exchange market. The exchange rate regime, that was earlier pegged, was partially
floated in March 1992 and fully floated in March 1993. The unification of the exchange
rate was instrumental in developing a market-determined exchange rate of the rupee
and was an important step in the progress towards total current account convertibility,
which was achieved in August 1994.

Although liberalization helped the Indian forex market in various ways, it led to
extensive fluctuations of exchange rate. This issue has attracted a great deal of concern
from policy-makers and investors. While some flexibility in foreign exchange markets
and exchange rate determination is desirable, excessive volatility can have an adverse
impact on price discovery, export performance, sustainability of current account
balance, and balance sheets. In the context of upgrading Indian foreign exchange
market to international standards, a well- developed foreign exchange derivative market
(both OTC as well as Exchange-traded) is imperative.

With a view to enable entities to manage volatility in the currency market, RBI on April
20, 2007 issued comprehensive guidelines on the usage of foreign currency forwards,
swaps and options in the OTC market. At the same time, RBI also set up an Internal
Working Group to explore the advantages of introducing currency futures. The Report
of the Internal Working Group of RBI submitted in April 2008, recommended the
introduction of Exchange Traded Currency Futures.
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Subsequently, RBI and SEBI jointly constituted a Standing Technical Committee to
analyze the Currency Forward and Future market around the world and lay down the
guidelines to introduce Exchange Traded Currency Futures in the Indian market. The
Committee submitted its report on May 29, 2008. Further RBI and SEBI also issued
circulars in this regard on August 06, 2008.

Currently, India is a USD 34 billion OTC market, where all the major currencies like
USD, EURO, YEN, Pound, Swiss Franc etc. are traded. With the help of electronic
trading and efficient risk management systems, Exchange Traded Currency Futures will
bring in more transparency and efficiency in price discovery, eliminate counterparty
credit risk, provide access to all types of market participants, offer standardized
products and provide transparent trading platform. Banks are also allowed to become
members of this segment on the Exchange, thereby providing them with a new
opportunity. Source :-( Report of the RBI-SEBI
standing technical committee on exchange traded currency futures) 2008.

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CURRENCY DERIVATIVE PRODUCTS

Derivative contracts have several variants. The most common variants are forwards,
futures, options and swaps. We take a brief look at various derivatives contracts that
have come to be used.

 FORWARD :

The basic objective of a forward market in any underlying asset is to fix a price
for a contract to be carried through on the future agreed date and is intended to
free both the purchaser and the seller from any risk of loss which might incur due
to fluctuations in the price of underlying asset.

A forward contract is customized contract between two entities, where settlement


takes place on a specific date in the future at today’s pre-agreed price. The
exchange rate is fixed at the time the contract is entered into. This is known as
forward exchange rate or simply forward rate.

 FUTURE :

A currency futures contract provides a simultaneous right and obligation to buy


and sell a particular currency at a specified future date, a specified price and a
standard quantity. In another word, a future contract is an agreement between
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two parties to buy or sell an asset at a certain time in the future at a certain price.
Future contracts are special types of forward contracts in the sense that they are
standardized exchange-traded contracts.

 SWAP :

Swap is private agreements between two parties to exchange cash flows in the
future according to a prearranged formula. They can be regarded as portfolio of
forward contracts.

The currency swap entails swapping both principal and interest between the
parties, with the cash flows in one direction being in a different currency than
those in the opposite direction. There are a various types of currency swaps like
as fixed-to-fixed currency swap, floating to floating swap, fixed to floating
currency swap.

In a swap normally three basic steps are involve___

(1) Initial exchange of principal amount


(2) Ongoing exchange of interest
(3) Re - exchange of principal amount on maturity.

 OPTIONS :

Currency option is a financial instrument that give the option holder a right and
not the obligation, to buy or sell a given amount of foreign exchange at a fixed
price per unit for a specified time period ( until the expiration date ). In other
words, a foreign currency option is a contract for future delivery of a specified
currency in exchange for another in which buyer of the option has to right to buy
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(call) or sell (put) a particular currency at an agreed price for or within specified
period. The seller of the option gets the premium from the buyer of the option
for the obligation undertaken in the contract. Options generally have lives of up
to one year, the majority of options traded on options exchanges having a
maximum maturity of nine months. Longer dated options are called warrants
and are generally traded OTC.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE SPOT (CASH) MARKET

The foreign exchange spot market trades in different currencies for both spot and
forward delivery. Generally they do not have specific location, and mostly take
place primarily by means of telecommunications both within and between countries.

It consists of a network of foreign dealers which are oftenly banks, financial


institutions, large concerns, etc. The large banks usually make markets in different
currencies.

In the spot exchange market, the business is transacted throughout the world on a
continual basis. So it is possible to transaction in foreign exchange markets 24

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hours a day. The standard settlement period in this market is 48 hours, i.e., 2 days
after the execution of the transaction.

The spot foreign exchange market is similar to the OTC market for securities. There
is no centralized meeting place and no fixed opening and closing time. Since most
of the business in this market is done by banks, hence, transaction usually do not
involve a physical transfer of currency, rather simply book keeping transfer entry
among banks.

Exchange rates are generally determined by demand and supply force in this
market. The purchase and sale of currencies stem partly from the need to finance
trade in goods and services. Another important source of demand and supply arises
from the participation of the central banks which would emanate from a desire to
influence the direction, extent or speed of exchange rate movements.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE QUOTATIONS


Foreign exchange quotations can be confusing because currencies are quoted in terms
of other currencies. It means exchange rate is relative price.

For example,

If one US dollar is worth of Rs. 45 in Indian rupees then it implies that


45 Indian rupees will buy one dollar of USA, or that one rupee is worth of 0.022 US
dollar which is simply reciprocal of the former dollar exchange rate.

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EXCHANGE RATE

Direct Indirect

The number of units of domestic The number of unit of foreign


Currency stated against one unit currency per unit of domestic
of foreign currency. currency.

Re/$ = 45.7250 ( or ) Re 1 = $ 0.02187


$1 = Rs. 45.7250

There are two ways of quoting exchange rates: the direct and indirect.
Most countries use the direct method. In global foreign exchange market, two rates
are quoted by the dealer: one rate for buying (bid rate), and another for selling (ask
or offered rate) for a currency. This is a unique feature of this market. It should be
noted that where the bank sells dollars against rupees, one can say that rupees
against dollar. In order to separate buying and selling rate, a small dash or oblique
line is drawn after the dash.
For example,

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If US dollar is quoted in the market as Rs 46.3500/3550, it means that
the forex dealer is ready to purchase the dollar at Rs 46.3500 and ready to sell at Rs
46.3550. The difference between the buying and selling rates is called spread.

It is important to note that selling rate is always higher than the buying rate.

Traders, usually large banks, deal in two way prices, both buying and selling, are
called market makers.

Base Currency/ Terms Currency:

In foreign exchange markets, the base currency is the first currency in a currency
pair. The second currency is called as the terms currency. Exchange rates are quoted
in per unit of the base currency. That is the expression Dollar-Rupee, tells you that
the Dollar is being quoted in terms of the Rupee. The Dollar is the base currency and
the Rupee is the terms currency.

Exchange rates are constantly changing, which means that the value of one currency
in terms of the other is constantly in flux. Changes in rates are expressed as
strengthening or weakening of one currency vis-à-vis the second currency.

Changes are also expressed as appreciation or depreciation of one currency in terms


of the second currency. Whenever the base currency buys more of the terms

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currency, the base currency has strengthened / appreciated and the terms currency has
weakened / depreciated.
For example,

If Dollar – Rupee moved from 43.00 to 43.25. The Dollar has


appreciated and the Rupee has depreciated. And if it moved from 43.0000 to 42.7525
the Dollar has depreciated and Rupee has appreciated.

NEED FOR EXCHANGE TRADED CURRENCY FUTURES

With a view to enable entities to manage volatility in the currency market, RBI on
April 20, 2007 issued comprehensive guidelines on the usage of foreign currency
forwards, swaps and options in the OTC market. At the same time, RBI also set up an
Internal Working Group to explore the advantages of introducing currency futures.
The Report of the Internal Working Group of RBI submitted in April 2008,
recommended the introduction of exchange traded currency futures. Exchange traded
futures as compared to OTC forwards serve the same economic purpose, yet differ in
fundamental ways. An individual entering into a forward contract agrees to transact
at a forward price on a future date. On the maturity date, the obligation of the
individual equals the forward price at which the contract was executed. Except on the
maturity date, no money changes hands. On the other hand, in the case of an
exchange traded futures contract, mark to market obligations is settled on a daily
basis. Since the profits or losses in the futures market are collected / paid on a daily
basis, the scope for building up of mark to market losses in the books of various
participants gets limited.

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The counterparty risk in a futures contract is further eliminated by the presence of a
clearing corporation, which by assuming counterparty guarantee eliminates credit
risk.

Further, in an Exchange traded scenario where the market lot is fixed at a much lesser
size than the OTC market, equitable opportunity is provided to all classes of investors
whether large or small to participate in the futures market. The transactions on an
Exchange are executed on a price time priority ensuring that the best price is
available to all categories of market participants irrespective of their size. Other
advantages of an Exchange traded market would be greater transparency, efficiency
and accessibility.
Source :-( Report of the RBI-SEBI standing technical committee on exchange
traded currency futures) 2008.

RATIONALE FOR INTRODUCING CURRENCY FUTURE

Futures markets were designed to solve the problems that exist in forward markets. A
futures contract is an agreement between two parties to buy or sell an asset at a certain
time in the future at a certain price. But unlike forward contracts, the futures contracts
are standardized and exchange traded. To facilitate liquidity in the futures contracts, the
exchange specifies certain standard features of the contract. A futures contract is
standardized contract with standard underlying instrument, a standard quantity and quality
of the underlying instrument that can be delivered, (or which can be used for reference
purposes in settlement) and a standard timing of such settlement. A futures contract may
be offset prior to maturity by entering into an equal and opposite transaction.

The standardized items in a futures contract are:

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• Quantity of the underlying

• Quality of the underlying

• The date and the month of delivery

• The units of price quotation and minimum price change

• Location of settlement

The rationale for introducing currency futures in the Indian context has been outlined
in the Report of the Internal Working Group on Currency Futures (Reserve Bank of
India, April 2008) as follows;

The rationale for establishing the currency futures market is manifold. Both residents and
non-residents purchase domestic currency assets. If the exchange rate remains unchanged
from the time of purchase of the asset to its sale, no gains and losses are made out of
currency exposures. But if domestic currency depreciates (appreciates) against the
foreign currency, the exposure would result in gain (loss) for residents purchasing foreign
assets and loss (gain) for non residents purchasing domestic assets. In this backdrop,
unpredicted movements in exchange rates expose investors to currency risks.

Currency futures enable them to hedge these risks. Nominal exchange rates are often
random walks with or without drift, while real exchange rates over long run are mean
reverting. As such, it is possible that over a long – run, the incentive to hedge currency
risk may not be large. However, financial planning horizon is much smaller than the
long-run, which is typically inter-generational in the context of exchange rates. As such,
there is a strong need to hedge currency risk and this need has grown manifold with fast
growth in cross-border trade and investments flows. The argument for hedging currency
risks appear to be natural in case of assets, and applies equally to trade in goods and
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services, which results in income flows with leads and lags and get converted into
different currencies at the market rates. Empirically, changes in exchange rate are found
to have very low correlations with foreign equity and bond returns. This in theory should
lower portfolio risk. Therefore, sometimes argument is advanced against the need for
hedging currency risks. But there is strong empirical evidence to suggest that hedging
reduces the volatility of returns and indeed considering the episodic nature of currency
returns, there are strong arguments to use instruments to hedge currency risks.

FUTURE TERMINOLOGY

 SPOT PRICE :

The price at which an asset trades in the spot market. The transaction in which
securities and foreign exchange get traded for immediate delivery. Since the
exchange of securities and cash is virtually immediate, the term, cash market, has
also been used to refer to spot dealing. In the case of USDINR, spot value is T +
2.

 FUTURE PRICE :

The price at which the future contract traded in the future market.

 CONTRACT CYCLE :

The period over which a contract trades. The currency future contracts in Indian
market have one month, two month, three month up to twelve month expiry
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cycles. In NSE/BSE will have 12 contracts outstanding at any given point in
time.

 VALUE DATE / FINAL SETTELMENT DATE :

The last business day of the month will be termed the value date /final settlement
date of each contract. The last business day would be taken to the same as that
for inter bank settlements in Mumbai. The rules for inter bank settlements,
including those for ‘known holidays’ and would be those as laid down by
Foreign Exchange Dealers Association of India (FEDAI).

 EXPIRY DATE :

It is the date specified in the futures contract. This is the last day on which the
contract will be traded, at the end of which it will cease to exist. The last trading
day will be two business days prior to the value date / final settlement date.

 CONTRACT SIZE :

The amount of asset that has to be delivered under one contract.


Also called as lot size. In case of USDINR it is USD 1000.

 BASIS :
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In the context of financial futures, basis can be defined as the futures price minus
the spot price. There will be a different basis for each delivery month for each
contract. In a normal market, basis will be positive. This reflects that futures
prices normally exceed spot prices.

 COST OF CARRY :

The relationship between futures prices and spot prices can be summarized in
terms of what is known as the cost of carry. This measures the storage cost plus
the interest that is paid to finance or ‘carry’ the asset till delivery less the income
earned on the asset. For equity derivatives carry cost is the rate of interest.

 INITIAL MARGIN :

When the position is opened, the member has to deposit the margin with the
clearing house as per the rate fixed by the exchange which may vary asset to
asset. Or in another words, the amount that must be deposited in the margin
account at the time a future contract is first entered into is known as initial
margin.

 MARKING TO MARKET :

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At the end of trading session, all the outstanding contracts are reprised at the
settlement price of that session. It means that all the futures contracts are daily
settled, and profit and loss is determined on each transaction. This procedure,
called marking to market, requires that funds charge every day. The funds are
added or subtracted from a mandatory margin (initial margin) that traders are
required to maintain the balance in the account. Due to this adjustment, futures
contract is also called as daily reconnected forwards.

 MAINTENANCE MARGIN :

Member’s account are debited or credited on a daily basis. In turn customers’


account are also required to be maintained at a certain level, usually about 75
percent of the initial margin, is called the maintenance margin. This is somewhat
lower than the initial margin.

This is set to ensure that the balance in the margin account never becomes
negative. If the balance in the margin account falls below the maintenance
margin, the investor receives a margin call and is expected to top up the margin
account to the initial margin level before trading commences on the next day.

USES OF CURRENCY FUTURES

 Hedging:

Presume Entity A is expecting a remittance for USD 1000 on 27 August 08.


Wants to lock in the foreign exchange rate today so that the value of inflow in

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Indian rupee terms is safeguarded. The entity can do so by selling one contract
of USDINR futures since one contract is for USD 1000.

Presume that the current spot rate is Rs.43 and ‘USDINR 27 Aug 08’ contract is
trading at Rs.44.2500. Entity A shall do the following:

Sell one August contract today. The value of the contract is Rs.44,250.

Let us assume the RBI reference rate on August 27, 2008 is Rs.44.0000. The
entity shall sell on August 27, 2008, USD 1000 in the spot market and get Rs.
44,000. The futures contract will settle at Rs.44.0000 (final settlement price =
RBI reference rate).

The return from the futures transaction would be Rs. 250, i.e. (Rs. 44,250 – Rs.
44,000). As may be observed, the effective rate for the remittance received by
the entity A is Rs.44. 2500 (Rs.44,000 + Rs.250)/1000, while spot rate on that
date was Rs.44.0000. The entity was able to hedge its exposure.

 Speculation: Bullish, buy futures

Take the case of a speculator who has a view on the direction of the market. He
would like to trade based on this view. He expects that the USD-INR rate
presently at Rs.42, is to go up in the next two-three months. How can he trade
based on this belief? In case he can buy dollars and hold it, by investing the
necessary capital, he can profit if say the Rupee depreciates to Rs.42.50.
Assuming he buys USD 10000, it would require an investment of Rs.4,20,000. If
the exchange rate moves as he expected in the next three months, then he shall
make a profit of around Rs.10000. This works out to an annual return of around
4.76%. It may please be noted that the cost of funds invested is not considered in
computing this return.

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A speculator can take exactly the same position on the exchange rate by using
futures contracts. Let us see how this works. If the INR- USD is Rs.42 and the
three month futures trade at Rs.42.40. The minimum contract size is USD 1000.
Therefore the speculator may buy 10 contracts. The exposure shall be the same as
above USD 10000. Presumably, the margin may be around Rs.21, 000. Three
months later if the Rupee depreciates to Rs. 42.50 against USD, (on the day of
expiration of the contract), the futures price shall converge to the spot price (Rs.
42.50) and he makes a profit of Rs.1000 on an investment of Rs.21, 000. This works
out to an annual return of 19 percent. Because of the leverage they provide, futures
form an attractive option for speculators.

 Speculation: Bearish, sell futures

Futures can be used by a speculator who believes that an underlying is over-


valued and is likely to see a fall in price. How can he trade based on his
opinion? In the absence of a deferral product, there wasn't much he could do to
profit from his opinion. Today all he needs to do is sell the futures.

Let us understand how this works. Typically futures move correspondingly with
the underlying, as long as there is sufficient liquidity in the market. If the
underlying price rises, so will the futures price. If the underlying price falls, so
will the futures price. Now take the case of the trader who expects to see a fall
in the price of USD-INR. He sells one two-month contract of futures on USD
say at Rs. 42.20 (each contact for USD 1000). He pays a small margin on the
same. Two months later, when the futures contract expires, USD-INR rate let us
say is Rs.42. On the day of expiration, the spot and the futures price converges.

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He has made a clean profit of 20 paise per dollar. For the one contract that he
sold, this works out to be Rs.2000.

 Arbitrage:

Arbitrage is the strategy of taking advantage of difference in price of the same


or similar product between two or more markets. That is, arbitrage is striking a
combination of matching deals that capitalize upon the imbalance, the profit
being the difference between the market prices. If the same or similar product is
traded in say two different markets, any entity which has access to both the
markets will be able to identify price differentials, if any. If in one of the
markets the product is trading at higher price, then the entity shall buy the
product in the cheaper market and sell in the costlier market and thus benefit
from the price differential without any additional risk.

One of the methods of arbitrage with regard to USD-INR could be a trading


strategy between forwards and futures market. As we discussed earlier, the
futures price and forward prices are arrived at using the principle of cost of
carry. Such of those entities who can trade both forwards and futures shall be
able to identify any mis-pricing between forwards and futures. If one of them is
priced higher, the same shall be sold while simultaneously buying the other
which is priced lower. If the tenor of both the contracts is same, since both
forwards and futures shall be settled at the same RBI reference rate, the
transaction shall result in a risk less profit.

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TRADING PROCESS AND SETTLEMENT PROCESS

Like other future trading, the future currencies are also traded at organized
exchanges. The following diagram shows how operation take place on currency
future market:

TRADER TRADER
( BUYER ) ( SELLER )

Purchase order Sales order

Transaction on the floor (Exchange)


MEMBER MEMBER
( BROKER ) ( BROKER )

Informs

CLEARING
HOUSE

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It has been observed that in most futures markets, actual physical delivery of the
underlying assets is very rare and hardly it ranges from 1 percent to 5 percent. Most
often buyers and sellers offset their original position prior to delivery date by taking an
opposite positions. This is because most of futures contracts in different products are
predominantly speculative instruments. For example, X purchases American Dollar
futures and Y sells it. It leads to two contracts, first, X party and clearing house and
second Y party and clearing house. Assume next day X sells same contract to Z, then X
is out of the picture and the clearing house is seller to Z and buyer from Y, and hence,
this process is goes on.

REGULATORY FRAMEWORK FOR CURRENCY FUTURES

With a view to enable entities to manage volatility in the currency market, RBI on April
20, 2007 issued comprehensive guidelines on the usage of foreign currency forwards,
swaps and options in the OTC market. At the same time, RBI also set up an Internal
Working Group to explore the advantages of introducing currency futures. The Report
of the Internal Working Group of RBI submitted in April 2008, recommended the
introduction of exchange traded currency futures. With the expected benefits of
exchange traded currency futures, it was decided in a joint meeting of RBI and SEBI on
February 28, 2008, that an RBI-SEBI Standing Technical Committee on Exchange
Traded Currency and Interest Rate Derivatives would be constituted. To begin with, the
Committee would evolve norms and oversee the implementation of Exchange traded
currency futures. The Terms of Reference to the Committee was as under:

1. To coordinate the regulatory roles of RBI and SEBI in regard to trading of


Currency and Interest Rate Futures on the Exchanges.

2. To suggest the eligibility norms for existing and new Exchanges for Currency
and Interest Rate Futures trading.

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3. To suggest eligibility criteria for the members of such exchanges.

4. To review product design, margin requirements and other risk mitigation


measures on an ongoing basis.

5. To suggest surveillance mechanism and dissemination of market information.

6. To consider microstructure issues, in the overall interest of financial stability.

COMPARISION OF FORWARD AND FUTURES CURRENCY CONTRACT

BASIS FORWARD FUTURES


Size Structured as per Standardized
requirement of the parties
Delivery Tailored on individual Standardized
date needs
Method of Established by the bank Open auction among buyers and seller
transaction or broker through on the floor of recognized exchange.
electronic media
Participants Banks, brokers, forex Banks, brokers, multinational
dealers, multinational companies, institutional investors,
companies, institutional small traders, speculators, arbitrageurs,
investors, arbitrageurs, etc.
traders, etc.
Margins None as such, but Margin deposit required
compensating bank
balanced may be required
Maturity Tailored to needs: from Standardized
one week to 10 years
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Settlement Actual delivery or offset Daily settlement to the market and
with cash settlement. No variation margin requirements
separate clearing house
Market Over the telephone At recognized exchange floor with
place worldwide and computer worldwide communications
networks
Accessibilit Limited to large Open to any one who is in need of
y customers banks, hedging facilities or has risk capital to
institutions, etc. speculate
Delivery More than 90 percent Actual delivery has very less even
settled by actual delivery below one percent
Secured Risk is high being less Highly secured through margin
secured deposit.

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ANALYSIS

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INTEREST RATE PARITY PRINCIPLE

For currencies which are fully convertible, the rate of exchange for any date other
than spot is a function of spot and the relative interest rates in each currency. The
assumption is that, any funds held will be invested in a time deposit of that
currency. Hence, the forward rate is the rate which neutralizes the effect of
differences in the interest rates in both the currencies. The forward rate is a function
of the spot rate and the interest rate differential between the two currencies, adjusted
for time. In the case of fully convertible currencies, having no restrictions on
borrowing or lending of either currency the forward rate can be calculated as
follows;

Future Rate = (spot rate) {1 + interest rate on home currency * period} /


{1 + interest rate on foreign currency * period}

For example,
Assume that on January 10, 2002, six month annual interest rate was
7 percent p.a. on Indian rupee and US dollar six month rate was 6 percent p.a. and
spot ( Re/$ ) exchange rate was 46.3500. Using the above equation the theoretical
future price on January 10, 2002, expiring on June 9, 2002 is : the answer will be

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Rs.46.7908 per dollar. Then, this theoretical price is compared with the quoted
futures price on January 10, 2002 and the relationship is observed.

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PRODUCT DEFINITIONS OF CURRENCY FUTURE ON
NSE/BSE

Underlying
Initially, currency futures contracts on US Dollar – Indian Rupee (US$-INR)
would be permitted.

Trading Hours
The trading on currency futures would be available from 9 a.m. to 5 p.m.

Size of the contract


The minimum contract size of the currency futures contract at the time of
introduction would be US$ 1000. The contract size would be periodically
aligned to ensure that the size of the contract remains close to the minimum
size.

Quotation
The currency futures contract would be quoted in rupee terms. However, the
outstanding positions would be in dollar terms.

Tenor of the contract


The currency futures contract shall have a maximum maturity of 12 months.

Available contracts
All monthly maturities from 1 to 12 months would be made available.

Settlement mechanism

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The currency futures contract shall be settled in cash in Indian Rupee.

Settlement price
The settlement price would be the Reserve Bank Reference Rate on the date of
expiry. The methodology of computation and dissemination of the Reference
Rate may be publicly disclosed by RBI.

Final settlement day


The currency futures contract would expire on the last working day (excluding
Saturdays) of the month. The last working day would be taken to be the same as
that for Interbank Settlements in Mumbai. The rules for Interbank Settlements,
including those for ‘known holidays’ and ‘subsequently declared holiday’
would be those as laid down by FEDAI.

The contract specification in a tabular form is as under:

Underlying Rate of exchange between one USD and


INR
Trading Hours 09:00 a.m. to 05:00 p.m.
(Monday to Friday)
Contract Size USD 1000
Tick Size 0.25 paisa or INR 0.0025
Trading Period Maximum expiration period of 12 months
Contract Months 12 near calendar months
Final Settlement date/ Last working day of the month (subject to
Value date holiday calendars)
Last Trading Day Two working days prior to Final
Settlement
Settlement Cash settled
Final Settlement Price The reference rate fixed by RBI two
working days prior to the final settlement
date will be used for final settlement
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CURRENCY FUTURES PAYOFFS

A payoff is the likely profit/loss that would accrue to a market participant with
change in the price of the underlying asset. This is generally depicted in the
form of payoff diagrams which show the price of the underlying asset on the X-
axis and the profits/losses on the Y-axis. Futures contracts have linear payoffs.
In simple words, it means that the losses as well as profits for the buyer and the
seller of a futures contract are unlimited. Options do not have linear payoffs.
Their pay offs are non-linear. These linear payoffs are fascinating as they can
be combined with options and the underlying to generate various complex
payoffs. However, currently only payoffs of futures are discussed as exchange
traded foreign currency options are not permitted in India.

Payoff for buyer of futures: Long futures


The payoff for a person who buys a futures contract is similar to the payoff for
a person who holds an asset. He has a potentially unlimited upside as well as a
potentially unlimited downside. Take the case of a speculator who buys a two-
month currency futures contract when the USD stands at say Rs.43.19. The
underlying asset in this case is the currency, USD. When the value of dollar
moves up, i.e. when Rupee depreciates, the long futures position starts making

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profits, and when the dollar depreciates, i.e. when rupee appreciates, it starts
making losses. Figure 4.1 shows the payoff diagram for the buyer of a futures
contract.

Payoff for buyer of future:

The figure shows the profits/losses for a long futures position. The
investor bought futures when the USD was at Rs.43.19. If the price goes
up, his futures position starts making profit. If the price falls, his futures
position starts showing losses.

P
R
O
F
I
T

43.19

0
USD
D
L
O
S
S

Payoff for seller of futures: Short futures


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The payoff for a person who sells a futures contract is similar to the payoff for a
person who shorts an asset. He has a potentially unlimited upside as well as a
potentially unlimited downside. Take the case of a speculator who sells a two
month currency futures contract when the USD stands at say Rs.43.19. The
underlying asset in this case is the currency, USD. When the value of dollar
moves down, i.e. when rupee appreciates, the short futures position starts 25
making profits, and when the dollar appreciates, i.e. when rupee depreciates, it
starts making losses. The Figure below shows the payoff diagram for the seller
of a futures contract.

Payoff for seller of future:


The figure shows the profits/losses for a short futures position. The investor
sold futures when the USD was at 43.19. If the price goes down, his futures
position starts making profit. If the price rises, his futures position starts
showing losses

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P
R
O
F
I
T

43.19

0
USD
D
L
O
S
S

PRICING FUTURES – COST OF CARRY MODEL

Pricing of futures contract is very simple. Using the cost-of-carry logic, we


calculate the fair value of a futures contract. Every time the observed price
deviates from the fair value, arbitragers would enter into trades to capture the
arbitrage profit. This in turn would push the futures price back to its fair value.

The cost of carry model used for pricing futures is given below:

F=Se^(r-rf)T
where:
r=Cost of financing (using continuously compounded interest rate)
rf= one year interest rate in foreign
T=Time till expiration in years
E=2.71828

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The relationship between F and S then could be given as
F Se^(r rf )T - =

This relationship is known as interest rate parity relationship and is used in


international finance. To explain this, let us assume that one year interest rates
in US and India are say 7% and 10% respectively and the spot rate of USD in
India is Rs. 44.

From the equation above the one year forward exchange rate should be
F = 44 * e^(0.10-0.07 )*1=45.34

It may be noted from the above equation, if foreign interest rate is greater than
the domestic rate i.e. rf > r, then F shall be less than S. The value of F shall
decrease further as time T increase. If the foreign interest is lower than the
domestic rate, i.e. rf < r, then value of F shall be greater than S. The value of F
shall increase further as time T increases.

HEDGING WITH CURENCY FUTURES

Exchange rates are quite volatile and unpredictable, it is possible that


anticipated profit in foreign investment may be eliminated, rather even may
incur loss. Thus, in order to hedge this foreign currency risk, the traders’ oftenly
use the currency futures. For example, a long hedge (I.e.., buying currency
futures contracts) will protect against a rise in a foreign currency value whereas
a short hedge (i.e., selling currency futures contracts) will protect against a
decline in a foreign currency’s value.

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It is noted that corporate profits are exposed to exchange rate risk in many
situation. For example, if a trader is exporting or importing any particular
product from other countries then he is exposed to foreign exchange risk.
Similarly, if the firm is borrowing or lending or investing for short or long
period from foreign countries, in all these situations, the firm’s profit will be
affected by change in foreign exchange rates. In all these situations, the firm
can take long or short position in futures currency market as per requirement.

The general rule for determining whether a long or short futures position will
hedge a potential foreign exchange loss is:
Loss from appreciating in Indian rupee= Short hedge
Loss form depreciating in Indian rupee= Long hedge

The choice of underlying currency


The first important decision in this respect is deciding the currency in which
futures contracts are to be initiated. For example, an Indian manufacturer wants
to purchase some raw materials from Germany then he would like future in
German mark since his exposure in straight forward in mark against home
currency (Indian rupee). Assume that there is no such future (between rupee and
mark) available in the market then the trader would choose among other
currencies for the hedging in futures. Which contract should he choose?
Probably he has only one option rupee with dollar. This is called cross hedge.
Choice of the maturity of the contract
The second important decision in hedging through currency futures is selecting
the currency which matures nearest to the need of that currency. For example,
suppose Indian importer import raw material of 100000 USD on 1st November
2008. And he will have to pay 100000 USD on 1st February 2009. And he
predicts that the value of USD will increase against Indian rupees nearest to due

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date of that payment. Importer predicts that the value of USD will increase
more than 51.0000.
So what he will do to protect against depreciating in Indian rupee? Suppose
spots value of 1 USD is 49.8500. Future Value of the 1USD on NSE as below:
Price Watch

Order
Book
Best Best Best Best Open
Contract LTP Volume
Buy Qty Buy Price Sell Price Sell Qty Interest
USDINR
464 49.8550 49.8575 712 49.8550 58506 43785
261108
USDINR
189 49.6925 49.7000 612 49.7300 176453 111830
291208
USDINR
1 49.8850 49.9250 2 49.9450 5598 16809
280109
USDINR
100 50.1000 50.2275 1 50.1925 3771 6367
250209
USDINR
100 49.9225 50.5000 5 49.9125 311 892
270309
USDINR
1 50.0000 51.0000 5 50.5000 - 278
280409
USDINR
- - 51.0000 5 47.1000 - 506
270509
USDINR
25 49.0000 - - 50.0000 - 116
260609
USDINR
1 48.0875 - - 49.1500 - 44
290709
USDINR
2 48.1625 50.5000 1 50.3000 6 2215
270809
USDINR
1 48.2375 - - 51.2000 - 79
280909
USDINR
1 48.3100 53.1900 2 50.9900 - 2
281009

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USDINR
1 48.3825 - - 50.9275 - -
261109

Volume As On 26-NOV-2008 17:00:00


Hours IST Rules, Byelaws & Regulations
No. of Contracts Membership
244645 Circulars
Archives List of Holidays
As On 26-Nov-2008 12:00:00 Hours IST
Underlying RBI reference rate
USDINR 49.8500

Solution:

He should buy ten contract of USDINR 28012009 at the rate of 49.8850. Value
of the contract is (49.8850*1000*100) =4988500. (Value of currency future per
USD*contract size*No of contract).
For that he has to pay 5% margin on 5988500. Means he will have to pay
Rs.299425 at present.
And suppose on settlement day the spot price of USD is 51.0000. On settlement
date payoff of importer will be (51.0000-59.8850) =1.115 per USD. And
(1.115*100000) =111500.Rs.

Choice of the number of contracts (hedging ratio)

Another important decision in this respect is to decide hedging ratio HR. The
value of the futures position should be taken to match as closely as possible the
value of the cash market position. As we know that in the futures markets due
to their standardization, exact match will generally not be possible but hedge
ratio should be as close to unity as possible. We may define the hedge ratio HR
as follows:
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HR= VF / Vc
Where, VF is the value of the futures position and Vc is the value of the cash
position.
Suppose value of contract dated 28th January 2009 is 49.8850.
And spot value is 49.8500.
HR=49.8850/49.8500=1.001.
FINDINGS

 Cost of carry model and Interest rate parity model are useful tools to find
out standard future price and also useful for comparing standard with
actual future price. And it’s also a very help full in Arbitraging.

 New concept of Exchange traded currency future trading is regulated by

higher authority and regulatory. The whole function of Exchange traded


currency future is regulated by SEBI/RBI, and they established rules and
regulation so there is very safe trading is emerged and counter party risk
is minimized in currency Future trading. And also time reduced in
Clearing and Settlement process up to T+1 day’s basis.

 Larger exporter and importer has continued to deal in the OTC counter
even exchange traded currency future is available in markets because,

 There is a limit of USD 100 million on open interest applicable to trading

member who are banks. And the USD 25 million limit for other trading
members so larger exporter and importer might continue to deal in the
OTC market where there is no limit on hedges.

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 In India RBI and SEBI has restricted other currency derivatives except
Currency future, at this time if any person wants to use other instrument
of currency derivatives in this case he has to use OTC.

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SUGGESTIONS

 Currency Future need to change some restriction it imposed such as

cut off limit of 5 million USD, Ban on NRI’s and FII’s and Mutual
Funds from Participating.

Now in exchange traded currency future segment only one pair USD-
INR is available to trade so there is also one more demand by the
exporters and importers to introduce another pair in currency trading.
Like POUND-INR, CAD-INR etc.

 In OTC there is no limit for trader to buy or short Currency futures so

there demand arises that in Exchange traded currency future should


have increase limit for Trading Members and also at client level, in
result OTC users will divert to Exchange traded currency Futures.

In India the regulatory of Financial and Securities market (SEBI) has
Ban on other Currency Derivatives except Currency Futures, so this
restriction seem unreasonable to exporters and importers. And
according to Indian financial growth now it’s become necessary to
introducing other currency derivatives in Exchange traded currency
derivative segment.

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CONCLUSIONS

By far the most significant event in finance during the past decade has been the
extraordinary development and expansion of financial derivatives…These
instruments enhances the ability to differentiate risk and allocate it to those
investors most able and willing to take it- a process that has undoubtedly
improved national productivity growth and standards of livings.

The currency future gives the safe and standardized contract to its investors and
individuals who are aware about the forex market or predict the movement of
exchange rate so they will get the right platform for the trading in currency
future. Because of exchange traded future contract and its standardized nature
gives counter party risk minimized.

Initially only NSE had the permission but now BSE and MCX has also started
currency future. It is shows that how currency future covers ground in the
compare of other available derivatives instruments. Not only big businessmen
and exporter and importers use this but individual who are interested and
having knowledge about forex market they can also invest in currency future.

Exchange between USD-INR markets in India is very big and these exchange
traded contract will give more awareness in market and attract the investors.

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BIBLIOGRAPHY

Financial Derivatives (theory, concepts and problems) By: S.L. Gupta.


NCFM: Currency future Module.
BCFM: Currency Future Module.
Center for social and economic research) Poland
Recent Development in International Currency Derivative Market by: Lucjan T.
Orlowski)
Report of the RBI-SEBI standing technical committee on exchange traded
currency futures) 2008
Report of the Internal Working Group on Currency Futures (Reserve Bank of
India, April 2008)

Websites:
www.sebi.gov.in
www.rbi.org.in
www.frost.com
www.wikipedia.com
www.economywatch.com
www.bseindia.com
www.nseindia.com

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