Anda di halaman 1dari 81

usfunds.

com
1.800.US.FUNDS
J anuary 2014 14-051
The Ups & Downs, Twists & Turns
in the World of Commodities
Frank Holmes, CEO and Chief Investment Officer




usfunds.com
J anuary 2014 14-051
usfunds.com
2
Performance and Results Oriented
Winner of 29 Lipper performance awards,
certificates and top rankings since 2000
(Four out of 13 U.S. Global Investors Funds received Lipper performance awards
from 2005 to 2008, six out of 13 received certificates from 2000 to 2007,
and two out of 13 received top rankings from 2009 to 2010.)
Investment leadership results in performance
usfunds.com
J anuary 2014 14-051
usfunds.com
Focus on Education
3
54 MFEA STAR Awards for Excellence in Education
usfunds.com
J anuary 2014 14-051
usfunds.com
Tipping Points, Melting Points
H
2
O is Like Money
4
Ice Turns to Water at 32, but Still H
2
O
usfunds.com
J anuary 2014 14-051
usfunds.com
5
7 Billion People Tipping Point
Centuries to Decades to a Decade for a Billion People
1970
usfunds.com
J anuary 2014 14-051
usfunds.com
Facebook Use Around the World
1.2 Billion People Connected Without Passports!
6
See Disclosures pages for any holdings in U.S. Global Investors Funds.
usfunds.com
J anuary 2014 14-051
usfunds.com
Every American Born Will Need
7
November 22, 2013
usfunds.com
J anuary 2014 14-051
usfunds.com
Did You Know?
8
India has
600 million people
under the age of 25

Thats 2 times
the entire population
of the U.S.
usfunds.com
J anuary 2014 14-051
usfunds.com
New Freedoms in Myanmar Create
Opportunity for Neighboring Thailand
9
President Barack Obama
Hillary Rodham Clinton (Secretary of State)
usfunds.com
J anuary 2014 14-051
usfunds.com
Thailand Stock Market Up 42 Percent
Under New Prime Minister
10
Yingluck Shinawatra
usfunds.com
J anuary 2014 14-051
usfunds.com
President Obama Meets with Prime Minister
Yingluck Shinawatra of Thailand
11
usfunds.com
J anuary 2014 14-051
usfunds.com
President Obama is Asked by Prime Minister Yingluck
Shinawatra of Thailand to Attend Dinner Function
12
usfunds.com
J anuary 2014 14-051
usfunds.com
President Obama Follows Prime Minister
Yingluck Shinawatra of Thailand to Dinner
13
usfunds.com
J anuary 2014 14-051
usfunds.com
President Obama Enjoys Dinner with Prime
Minister Yingluck Shinawatra of Thailand
14
usfunds.com
J anuary 2014 14-051
usfunds.com
15
usfunds.com
J anuary 2014 14-051
usfunds.com
16
Government Policy Model
Precursor for Change
President Barack Obama
Ben Bernanke, Chairman
of the Federal Reserve
usfunds.com
J anuary 2014 14-051
usfunds.com
17
Emerging World Holds 50% of the
Global Population, Just 23% of GDP
usfunds.com
J anuary 2014 14-051
usfunds.com
Compare E7 vs G7 Money Supply Growth
Emerging Worlds Money Supply is Robust
18
usfunds.com
J anuary 2014 14-051
usfunds.com
Follow the Money
Presidential Election Cycle
19
Government Policy Is a
Precursor to Change
March 2009
usfunds.com
J anuary 2014 14-051
usfunds.com
Follow the Money
Equities and Gold Have Outperformed Bonds
20
See Disclosures pages for any holdings in U.S. Global Investors Funds.
usfunds.com
J anuary 2014 14-051
usfunds.com
S&P 500 Index Analysis Buybacks
and Dividends Help Drive Performance
21
Past performance does not guarantee future results.
usfunds.com
J anuary 2014 14-051
usfunds.com
Holmes Macro Trends Fund 2013 Performance
659 Basis Points of Outperformance
22
See performance page for complete fund performance.
usfunds.com
J anuary 2014 14-051
usfunds.com
23
Its Not the Political Party,
Its the Political Policies
usfunds.com
J anuary 2014 14-051
usfunds.com
Its Not the Political Party,
Its the Political Policies
Declining Value of the U.S. Dollar Since 1970
24
Alan Greenspan Ben Bernanke Richard Nixon
usfunds.com
J anuary 2014 14-051
usfunds.com
The Spotty Track Record of the Federal
Reserves Economic Projections
Alan Greenspan Ben Bernanke
25
usfunds.com
J anuary 2014 14-051
usfunds.com
Gordon Brown vs. Gold
Never Held Accountable for $10 Billion Error
26
Gordon Brown
usfunds.com
J anuary 2014 14-051
usfunds.com
The New Camelot: China
27
President Xi Jinping and Peng Liyuan
usfunds.com
J anuary 2014 14-051
usfunds.com
Chinas PMI Continues to Expand
28
August 26, 2013
August 2, 2013
March 5, 2013
usfunds.com
J anuary 2014 14-051
usfunds.com
Germany Participating in Global
Recovery Good for Energy Demand
29
usfunds.com
J anuary 2014 14-051
usfunds.com
Backdrop of Rising Global PMIs
30
usfunds.com
J anuary 2014 14-051
usfunds.com
The Trend is Your Friend
G3 PMIs and Base Metal Demand
31
usfunds.com
J anuary 2014 14-051
usfunds.com
Global Trend is Your Friend
PMI and Commodities Relationship
32
Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
usfunds.com
J anuary 2014 14-051
usfunds.com
Contrarian Thinking Energy and Materials
Fund Holdings in Europe at 6-Year Lows
Energy and Materials Fund Holdings in Europe at 6-Year Lows
Active Weight
Source: HSBC, EPFR, U.S. Global Investors
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
AUG-06
Energy
Materials
AUG-07 AUG-08 AUG-09 AUG-10 AUG-11 AUG-12
33
usfunds.com
J anuary 2014 14-051
usfunds.com
Europes GDP Expected to Rise Over
Next 12 Months Good for Energy Demand
34
usfunds.com
J anuary 2014 14-051
usfunds.com
Contrarian Ideas Global Materials
Similar to 2008, Shortly Before Global Materials Stocks Took Off
35
Source: Bank of America Merrill Lynch, U.S. Global Investors
Opportunity
Past performance does not guarantee future results.
usfunds.com
J anuary 2014 14-051
usfunds.com
Energy and Materials Rose 25 Percent in 2013
36
Past performance does not guarantee future results.
usfunds.com
J anuary 2014 14-051
usfunds.com
Euroland and U.S. Lead in
Positive Economic Surprises
37
usfunds.com
J anuary 2014 14-051
usfunds.com
Demand for Oil Remains Strong
38
Cleaner, Greener China
August 7, 2013
See Disclosures pages for any holdings in U.S. Global Investors Funds.
usfunds.com
J anuary 2014 14-051
usfunds.com
Record Crude Imports into China
39
usfunds.com
J anuary 2014 14-051
usfunds.com
Global Oil Demand and Global
PMIs Are Highly Correlated
40
usfunds.com
J anuary 2014 14-051
usfunds.com
OPECs Spare Capacity Is Below
5 Percent of Global Production
41
usfunds.com
J anuary 2014 14-051
usfunds.com
Chinas Changing Urban Consumption
42
How they spend it in China
February 13, 2013
usfunds.com
J anuary 2014 14-051
usfunds.com
Emerging High-Speed
Rail Hub Cities
43
Frank Holmes
High Speed Train, China
2014
usfunds.com
J anuary 2014 14-051
usfunds.com
High-Speed Rail is a Growth
Opportunity for U.S. Companies
44
2014
See Disclosures pages for any holdings in U.S. Global Investors Funds.
usfunds.com
J anuary 2014 14-051
usfunds.com
Gold Demand Drivers
45
Elvis Presley
usfunds.com
J anuary 2014 14-051
usfunds.com
Driver: The Fear Trade
46
Monetary
Fiscal
President Barack Obama
Ben Bernanke, Chairman
of the Federal Reserve
usfunds.com
J anuary 2014 14-051
usfunds.com
Follow the Money Global Liquidity
Boom Good for Gold and Emerging Markets
47
usfunds.com
J anuary 2014 14-051
usfunds.com
Global Money Supply Influencing Gold Prices
Lending Regulations Slow the Velocity of Money,
Which Prevents Money Supply from Growing
48
usfunds.com
J anuary 2014 14-051
usfunds.com
Major Divergence in the Price of Gold
Compared to Feds Balance Sheet with 3 QEs
49
usfunds.com
J anuary 2014 14-051
usfunds.com
ShadowStats Economists Suggest the
Real Inflation Rate is 5%, Not 1.5%
50
usfunds.com
J anuary 2014 14-051
usfunds.com
Low Real Interest Rates Historically
Fuel Gold, Silver and Oil
51
Tipping Point for Gold
2%
Gold & silver perform well in
low or negative real interest
rate environments
+2%
Source: Bloomberg Finance LP, Deutsche Bank, U.S. Global Investors
usfunds.com
J anuary 2014 14-051
usfunds.com
Great Roll Over or Rip Off Creates Opportunity
52
March 2013
usfunds.com
J anuary 2014 14-051
usfunds.com
Short Term Headwind for Gold
53
December 2013
usfunds.com
J anuary 2014 14-051
usfunds.com
Massive Liquidation of Financial Gold
54
See Disclosures pages for any holdings in U.S. Global Investors Funds.
usfunds.com
J anuary 2014 14-051
usfunds.com
Gold ETF Observations
Selling Declining with Lower Prices
55
usfunds.com
J anuary 2014 14-051
usfunds.com
Chinas Increasing
Appetite for Gold
56
usfunds.com
J anuary 2014 14-051
usfunds.com
Indian Premiums and Import Taxes Bring
Equivalent Gold Price to $1,632 Per Ounce
57
October 25, 2013
Source: www.goldchartsrus.com, U.S. Global Investors
usfunds.com
J anuary 2014 14-051
usfunds.com
Silver ETF Observations
Buying with Lower Prices
58
usfunds.com
J anuary 2014 14-051
usfunds.com
Platinum ETF Observations
Buying Rises with Lower Prices
59
usfunds.com
J anuary 2014 14-051
usfunds.com
Gold Would Need to Be Much Higher
to Cover U.S. Money Supply
60
usfunds.com
J anuary 2014 14-051
usfunds.com
Driver: The Love Trade
61
usfunds.com
J anuary 2014 14-051
usfunds.com
Gold Love Trade
Strong Correlation Between Rising Incomes and Gold Price
62
usfunds.com
J anuary 2014 14-051
usfunds.com
Chinas Increasing Jewelry Demand
63
usfunds.com
J anuary 2014 14-051
usfunds.com
64
Managing Expectations
Gold Seasonality
Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
usfunds.com
J anuary 2014 14-051
usfunds.com
Holidays Drive Gold Demand
65
usfunds.com
J anuary 2014 14-051
usfunds.com
Gold Does Not Look Like a Bubble
66
usfunds.com
J anuary 2014 14-051
usfunds.com
Predicting Attractive Tops and Bottoms
Easier in South Beach vs. Markets
67
Priority
Reading
Money
Magazine
usfunds.com
J anuary 2014 14-051
usfunds.com
Managing Expectations Gold Oversold
in the Year-over-Year Rolling Oscillator
68
usfunds.com
J anuary 2014 14-051
usfunds.com
Contrarian Mode
Short Squeeze to Drive Gold Rally?
69
usfunds.com
J anuary 2014 14-051
usfunds.com
Contrarian
Gold Stocks Poised to Bounce
70
?
usfunds.com
J anuary 2014 14-051
usfunds.com
Golds Double Bottom Forming?
71
usfunds.com
J anuary 2014 14-051
usfunds.com
Only 3 Times in 3 Decades Gold
Stocks Declined 3 Consecutive Years
72
usfunds.com
J anuary 2014 14-051
usfunds.com
Gold Stocks/Gold Ratio Shows
Gold Stocks Undervalued
73
usfunds.com
J anuary 2014 14-051
usfunds.com
Gold Stocks at Historically
Low Cash Flow Multiples
74
usfunds.com
J anuary 2014 14-051
usfunds.com
75
Managing Expectations Yearly Volatility
The Math
View the presentation Anticipate Before You Participate at
www.usfunds.com/investor-resources/publications/research
Rolling 1 Year
NYSE Arca Gold
BUGS Index (HUI)
36.4%
WTI Crude Oil 34.7%
MSCI Emerging Markets (MXEF) 30.5%
S&P 500 Index (SPX) 17.7%
Gold Bullion 17.6%
12-month rolling volatility of
price action over 10-year period
Standard Deviation (as of 12/31/13) based on 10-Year Data
usfunds.com
J anuary 2014 14-051
usfunds.com
Reasons for Active Management
Annual Rotation in Leadership
76
usfunds.com
J anuary 2014 14-051
usfunds.com
77
An American Energy Renaissance
Download Your Free
Copy of Our New
Special Energy Report
at usfunds.com

usfunds.com
J anuary 2014 14-051
usfunds.com
78
usfunds.com
J anuary 2014 14-051
usfunds.com
Fund Performance
79
usfunds.com
J anuary 2014 14-051
usfunds.com
Disclosure
Please consider carefully a funds investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses. For this and other
important information, obtain a fund prospectus by visiting www.usfunds.com or by calling 1-800-US-FUNDS
(1-800-873-8637). Read it carefully before investing. Distributed by U.S. Global Brokerage, Inc.

All opinions expressed and data provided are subject to change without notice. Some of these opinions may not be appropriate to every investor.

Although Lipper makes reasonable efforts to ensure the accuracy and reliability of the data contained herein, the accuracy is not guaranteed by
Lipper. Users acknowledge that they have not relied upon any warranty, condition, guarantee, or representation made by Lipper. Any use of the
data for analyzing, managing, or trading financial instruments is at the user's own risk. This is not an offer to buy or sell securities.

The Bangkok SET Index is a capitalization-weighted index of all the stocks traded on the Stock Exchange of Thailand. The S&P 1500 Composite
is a broad-based capitalization-weighted index of 1500 U.S. companies and is comprised of the S&P 400, S&P 500, and the S&P 600. The index
was developed with a base value of 100 as of December 30, 1994. The S&P 500 Stock Index is a widely recognized capitalization-weighted
index of 500 common stock prices in U.S. companies. ZEW Germany Expectation of Economic Growth is a survey on the question of economic
growth in six months. The ISM manufacturing composite index is a diffusion index calculated from five of the eight sub-components of a monthly
survey of purchasing managers at roughly 300 manufacturing firms from 21 industries in all 50 states. The Purchasing Managers Index is an
indicator of the economic health of the manufacturing sector. The PMI index is based on five major indicators: new orders, inventory levels,
production, supplier deliveries and the employment environment. The S&P 500 Materials Index is a capitalization-weighted index that tracks the
companies in the material sector as a subset of the S&P 500. The S&P 500 Energy Index is a capitalization-weighted index that tracks the
companies in the energy sector as a subset of the S&P 500. The Nasdaq Composite Index is a capitalization-weighted index of all Nasdaq
National Market and SmallCap stocks. The Philadelphia Stock Exchange Gold and Silver Index (XAU) is a capitalization-weighted index that
includes the leading companies involved in the mining of gold and silver. The NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index is a modified market capitalization
weighted index comprised of publicly traded companies involved primarily in the mining for gold and silver. The index benchmark value was
500.0 at the close of trading on December 20, 2002. The NYSE Arca Gold BUGS (Basket of Unhedged Gold Stocks) Index (HUI) is a modified
equal dollar weighted index of companies involved in gold mining. The HUI Index was designed to provide significant exposure to near term
movements in gold prices by including companies that do not hedge their gold production beyond 1.5 years. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index
is a free float-adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to measure equity market performance in the global emerging markets.


80
usfunds.com
J anuary 2014 14-051
usfunds.com
Disclosures
81
M1 Money Supply includes funds that are readily accessible for spending. M2 Money Supply is a broad measure of money supply that includes M1
in addition to all time-related deposits, savings deposits, and non-institutional money-market funds. M3 money supply is the broadest monetary
aggregate, including physical currency, demand accounts, savings and money market accounts, certificates of deposit, deposits of eurodollars and
repurchase agreements. Standard deviation is a measure of the dispersion of a set of data from its mean. The more spread apart the data, the
higher the deviation. Standard deviation is also known as historical volatility.

Holdings in the Holmes Macro Trends Fund as a percentage of net assets as of 12/31/2013: Facebook 0.88%, iShares Core Total US Bond ETF
0.00%, McDonalds 0.00%, Starbucks 2.10%, Enric 0.00%, SPDR Gold Trust 0.00%.

Anda mungkin juga menyukai