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ENME392 Fall 2013 Homework 12

Due Tuesday November 12th at the beginning of the class


Notes: 1. You may not look at solutions from previous years, since many of the problems assigned here have been used before. The honor code applies and you must include the honor code pledge (please see syllabus) on your homework. 2. Please show all your steps in the solution of the problems. 3. You may use Microsoft Excel, but keep in mind that you will need to be prepared to work problems like these by hand on an exam.
Total number of points: 100 Assignment: 1. 2 8 1 4 9 1 98 a. P( [POPQUIZ] ) = / 2 1 1 1 1 1 7 2 8 1 1 4 9 1 95 b. P( POP [QUIZ] ) = / 98 97 96 1 1 1 1 5 11 1 2 4 1 4 12 98 c. P( [SQUE] EZY ) = / 94 93 92 1 1 1 1 4 12 11 1 2 4 1 4 98 d. P( [SQU] EEZY ) = / 95 94 93 92 1 1 1 3 1 2 1 95 98 92 93 e. P( [ZYX??]?? ) = / / 1 1 1 2 5 2 2 (15 pts)

2. (20 pts) a) The data fit to a Poisson distribution based on a value of : = =1


(# )(# ) #

b) Sums of Poisson probability distributions are found in Table A.2. Since Table A.2 gives cumulative probabilities, we can determine the probability in a single cell by subtracting one cumulative probability evaluated at that cell from another evaluated in a neighboring cell. For the first cell, we have ( = 0, = 0.90) = 0.4066. Then for all subsequent cells:
1 ( , ) = =0 (; ) =0 (; )

~ 0.90

# bad pixels 0 1 2 Combined 3-7 3 4 5 6 7

Observed Frequency 46 37 10 7 3 1 1 1 1

Expected Prob Table A.2 (Differences of Expected values A2 values) Frequency (oi-ei)^2/ei 0 0.4066 0.4066 40.657 0.702168 37 0.7725 0.3659 36.591 0.004566 20 0.9371 0.1647 16.466 2.539165 31 6.285 0.08129 9 0.9865 0.0494 4.940 0.76175 4 0.9977 0.0111 1.111 0.011177 5 0.9997 0.0020 0.200 3.198494 6 1.0000 0.0003 0.030 31.35289 7 1.0000 0.0000 0.004 257.1818

We combine cells 3 through 7 because they each have an expected frequency value < 5. The analysis for chi-squared take sums only for the terms in the upper shaded half of the table, but the combined expected frequency takes the sum of the lower half entries. Plotting the expected and observed frequencies yields the following:

50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 0 1 2
Combined

Observed Frequency

Expected Frequency

c) The sum of the terms in the rightmost column of the table gives a chi-squared value of 3.25. For 3 degrees of freedom, this corresponds to an alpha value between 0.30 and 0.50. These are relatively large alpha values (levels of significance) that support the hypothesis that the data come from a Poisson distribution. Therefore, to this level of significance in chi-squared, we can say that 36 or 37 screens per 100 are shipping with 1 bad pixel.

3. (25 pts) a) Combine the counts for x = 9, 10, since all cells need a value of at least 5. (We can look at the graph now and speculate that because of the bell shape, the data will likely follow a normal distribution.) We will calculate the chi-squared using the observed and expected frequencies.
70

Observed Frequency

60 50 40 30 20 10 0 4 5 6 7 8 9

Number of Hours
First, we must find the mean and standard deviation of the data, so that we can compare to a normal curve of the same mean and standard deviation. The mean is found using = E( = x)

= xf ( x ) . The variance is found using


2 x

E( x 2 ) 2 .

Number of Hrs Students, Sleep, x f(x)*n 4 5 6 7 8 9 sums 8 24 59 50 23 5 169

x f(x) 32 120 354 350 184 45 1085

x2 f(x) 128 600 2124 2450 1472 405 7179

Therefore, = 1085/169 = 6.42 and 2 = 7179/169 6.422 = 1.26, and = 1.12 b) H0: The frequencies follow a normal distribution H1: The frequencies do not follow a normal distribution

c) The problem is actually a binomial distribution. The discrete binomial variable X is the number of hours slept in a 24 hr day. The probably of being asleep is therefore 0.2675 based on the mean

calculated above of 6.42 hrs per day. The two binomial states are sleep and awake. So the binomial probability is b(x;n,p) where x = # hrs slept, n = 24, and p = 0.2675. We are approximating the frequencies of individuals as a normal distribution about this central mean. Therefore, the continuity correction may be required. We will try this with and without the continuity correction. WITHOUT continuity correction
Number of Hrs Students, Sleep, x f(x)*n 4 5 6 7 8 9 sums 8 24 59 50 23 5 169 expected z= cumulative expected (x - )/ probabilities frequencies -2.15 -1.26 -0.37 0.52 1.41 2.30 0.016 0.103 0.354 0.697 0.920 0.989 2.63 14.78 42.44 57.97 37.70 11.65

x f(x) 32 120 354 350 184 45 1085

x2 f(x) 128 600 2124 2450 1472 405 7179

Plotting the observed (surveyed) and expected (normally distributed) data gives the following frequency distribution.
70
Survey

60

Normal

Observed Frequency

50 40 30 20 10 0 4 5 6 7 8 9

Number of Hours

WITH Continuity Correction: In this last figure, the expected frequencies from the normal distribution look very much unlike the survey data. From appearances, the two sets of distributions have qualitative similarities but their peaks do not seem to match. Since we are dealing with a small number of cells n, we need to shift the normal distribution by one half of a cell width (the continuity correction). This means we shift x values by 0.5:

Number of Hrs Students, Sleep, x f(x)*n 4 5 6 7 8 9 sums


70

x f(x) 32 120 354 350 184 45 1085

x2 f(x) 128 600 2124 2450 1472 405 7179

expected z= expected cumulative (x +0.5 - )/ probabilities frequencies -1.71 -0.82 0.07 0.96 1.85 2.74 0.044 0.206 0.528 0.832 0.968 0.997 7.38 27.49 54.42 51.29 23.01 4.90

8 24 59 50 23 5 169

Survey

60

Normal

Observed Frequency

50 40 30 20 10 0 4 5 6 7 8 9

Number of Hours

Comparing the two figures, note how the corrected distribution is more than just a rigid translation of the expected frequencies from the first plot. The frequencies had to be evaluated again in new cells at new x (or z) locations. Now we can calculate 2:
x 4 5 6 7 8 9 observed expected frequencies frequencies 8 24 59 50 23 5 7.38 27.49 54.42 51.29 23.01 4.90 (oi - ei)2 / ei 0.05 0.44 0.38 0.03 0.00 0.00

sum =

0.91

Looking up this value in table A5 with 5 degrees of freedom, we obtain an between 0.975 and 0.95. If is small (or 2 is large) we would reject H0. However, we see that is quite large. (Remember, cannot be more than 1.) So we do not reject. We do not have enough evidence that the data are not normally distributed.

d) The continuity correction was applied. In other words, we used the normal approximation to the binomial distribution. There are 24 hours in each day. The average probability of sleeping is p = 0.2675 = 6.42/24. Therefore np = 6.42 > 5 and nq = 24 - 6.42 = 17.58 > 5. Since both np and nq are greater than 5, this indicates that the normal distribution is a valid approximation to the binomial distribution. It is also important to notice that we took cumulative probabilities and subtracted one from another to get the probability of a certain number of hours slept. This is effectively taking the integrated region under the distribution for a single bin (or cell). e) In part c, we calculated 2 to be 0.91, which corresponds to an somewhere in the range (0.95, 0.975). In a 2test, the is the level of significance while also the P-value under the condition of H0. Therefore, we do not reject H0 and conclude that evidence is not sufficient to conclude that the distribution is not normal.

4.(10 pts) Chapter 11: 11.3 Also answer the following: d) Estimate the amount of chemical that will dissolve in 100 grams of water at 95 degrees C. i 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 SUMS xi 0 0 0 15 15 15 30 30 30 45 45 45 60 60 60 75 75 75 675 yi 8 6 8 12 10 14 25 21 24 31 33 28 44 39 42 48 51 44 488 xi^2 0 0 0 225 225 225 900 900 900 2025 2025 2025 3600 3600 3600 5625 5625 5625 37125 xiyi 0 0 0 180 150 210 750 630 720 1395 1485 1260 2640 2340 2520 3600 3825 3300 25005

a)

Use the equations on p 396 of Walpole. (18)(25005) (675)(0.56762) = .568 (18)(37125) (675)2 (488) (0.568)(675) = 5.825 18

= 1 =

The formula of the regression line is therefore = 0.568 + 5.825 b)


60 50 40 30 20 10 0 0 20 40 60

= 0 =

y = 0.5676x + 5.8254

yi (Grams)

80

xi (Temperature)

c) For x=50, = 0.568(50) + 5.825 = 34.23 d) For x=95, = 0.568(95) + 5.825 = 59.79

5.(10 pts) Chapter 11: 11.19

6.(10 pts) Chapter 12: 12.4 a) = 22.99316 + 1.39567 1 + 0.21761 2 b) = 22.99316 + 1.39567 (35) + 0.21761(250) = 80.25874 Hypotheses are: 0 : 1 = 2 = 3 = 4 , H1: Two or more of the means are not equal.

7.(10 pts) Chapter 13: 13.6

Anova: Single Factor SUMMARY Groups Aromatics Chloroalkanes Esters ANOVA Source of Variation Solvents SSA Errors SSE Total SST

Count 9 8 15

Sum 8.48 8.05 4.95

Average 0.942222222 1.00625 0.33

Variance 0.0283194 0.1607696 0.0431

SS 3.305407 1.955343 5.26075

df 2 29 31

MS 1.652703472 0.067425623

F 24.511505

P-value 5.86E-07

F crit 3.327654

The P-value here under condition of H0 is 5.86e-7. Therefore we reject H0 and observe that one of the solvents has a significantly different mean sorption rate than the other solvents. Indeed, Esters have the lowest sorption rate.