Fuzzy Rule Base for Anal tical Demand Forecasting Enhancement

Agus Pratondo
Department of Information Technology
Telkom Polytechnic
Bandung, Indonesia
agus@politekniktelkom.ac.id


AbstractDemand data can be viewed as a number series from
time to time. The series may be a pattern that can be anal zed
for the next demand prediction if the slice of time is constant.
The demand series which the time slice is constant can
forecast the next demand valued by ap lying a formula. There
are many methods to forecast the next demand. All formulas
calculate the next demand by using the fact of demand as a
pure number series. The next demand value is derived from
analitical process using mathematics equation, from the
simplest way to the complex one. In fact, the demand is
influenced by environtment factor, for example social and
politics exchange, disaster, and mode. The demand forecasting
must be reevaluated by considering the environment factors.
The environtment factor usually has uncertainty value which is
good using fuzzy value. That is why the best way to enhance
the demand forecasting is calculation using fuzzy rule base.
Keywords- demand, series, forecasting, anal tic, environment,
fuzzy
I. DEMAND PATTERN FOR FORECASTING
Demand can be viewed as numerical series. The next
series can be predicted by using a formula. Different formula
will produce different prediction number. It is not problem
what formula that will be used but the most important in
forecasting is the minimum error. If there is a number series
D : J
0
, J
1,
, J
2,
, J
3,
, .... J
-1,
and

is the forecasting
number for J
,
, then the error can be defined as below
c = |

- J

| (1)
where: c is the forecasting error
The value of
,
can be greater, equal, or less than
J
,
. The error value describes how far the prediciton value
compared to the real value is. The smaller the value c, the
better the the forecasting will be.
The c value can be minimized by identifing the data
pattern. The data pattern guides to which forumula should be
used. One formula may be approriate for a pattern but not for
other. The data pattern can be obtained if there is adequate
history demand data. Some data patterns are shown in the
folowing figures.




































Figure 1. Some patterns for demand history
Assume that there is a number series D : J
1,
, J
2,
,
J
3,
, .... J
n,
for the time series T : t
1,
, t
2,
, t
3,
, .... t
n,
. The
graphic can be derived from set of points {(t
x
, J
x
) | x e
{u,1, , n]]

D


t
a. Close to static data

D


t
b. Random value

D


t
c. Close to linier equation graphics

D


t
d. Season data

2010 Second International Conference on Advances in Computing, Control, and Telecommunication Technologies
978-0-7695-4269-0/10 $26.00 2010 IEEE
DOI 10.1109/ACT.2010.61
190
y
y
p
y
2010 Second International Conference on Advances in Computing, Control, and Telecommunication Technologies
978-0-7695-4269-0/10 $26.00 2010 IEEE
DOI 10.1109/ACT.2010.61
190
2010 Second International Conference on Advances in Computing, Control, and Telecommunication Technologies
978-0-7695-4269-0/10 $26.00 2010 IEEE
DOI 10.1109/ACT.2010.61
190
2010 Second International Conference on Advances in Computing, Control, and Telecommunication Technologies
978-0-7695-4269-0/10 $26.00 2010 IEEE
DOI 10.1109/ACT.2010.61
188
It is easy to identify the pattern in fig. 1(a) and fig. 1(c)
which are relatively closed to linier equation complying with
equation
y = mx + c (2)

where m = u for fig. 1(a) and m = u for fig. 1(c). The
coeficient m can derived from

m =
(d
x
)(t
x
2
)- (t
x
)(t
x
d
x
)
(n)(t
x
2
)- (t
x
)
2
(3)

and the constanta c can be derived from

c =
(n)(t
x
d
x
)- (t
x
)(t
j
)
(n)(t
x
2
)- (t
x
)
2
(4)

In fig. 1(d), it is closed to trigonometric function which
comply with equation

y = sin(x + ) +c (5)

Once the equation obtained, the next demand will be
easy to be found. The hardest pattern to get the equation is
fig. 1(b). It needs more complex equation which may contain
combination of simple equation.
II. ANAL TICAL DEMAND FORECASTING
The example of analitical demand forecasting can be
descirbe as followns. Assume there is a demand history:
TABLE I. DEMAND HISTORY
Month Demand
1 782
2 794
3 789
4 800
5 795

A linier regression will produce an equation
y = S,2 x + 782,4 . The next demand is calculated by
subtituting x = 6 and produce 801,6. Since the demand is
integer, it can be said that the next demand is |8u1,6]= 802.
See fig. 2.(a).

a. A linier regression

b. A polynomial equation
Figure 2. Forecasting the 6
th
demand
In fig. 2.(b), a polynomial equation is used. The degree of
polynomial is 3, and produces an equation

y = 0,083x
3
- 2,035x
2
+ 12,88x + 772 (6)

By subtituting x = 6, the forecasting value is 793,948,
and it can be said 794.
The example above shows that different formula will
produce different value. In this research, the methode to get
the demand forecating number is ignored. The main purpose
is to evaluate the demand forecasting to ensure the
decission maker that the prediction has minumum error. For
the next discussion, assume that polynomial equation is used
to forecast the demand.
III. ENVIRONMENT FACTORS INFLUENCE THE DEMAND
All formulas in demand forecasting is pure
derived from a mathematic equation. A manager should
make a decision not only by using the mathematic result but
also by considering the environtment. There is a question
whether the forecasted demand should be taken greater,
equal, or less. Using polynomial equation, the demand
forcating for table I is 794 (fig. 2), call it P0. It is possible
that the real demand will be greater or less than this value. In
fig. 3, there are a lot of posibilities from P0. Some of them
are P1 till P5, where P1 is greater but P2,P3,P4, and P5 are
less then P0.

Figure 3. Alternative values
191
Y
anal tical y
anal tical y
191 191 189
The environtment may influence the demand but it is
hard to generate the mathematics equation. The uncertainty
factors become important in decision making. Since the
uncertainty usually has fuzzy value, it will be easy to
represent the environtment factors using fuzzy logic.
In classic theory set, the degree of member is very clear.
It has value 0 or 1, whether they are member or not. There is
no space for semantic meaning such as rather, relatively
closed, medium, and etc. Fuzzy logic accomodate the value
that has uncertainty. It alows value between 0 and 1. It also
has linguistic variable that has natural semantic meaning
such as low, medium, high, or very high. The environtment
factors that influence a demand may be as follows:
1. If the there are a lot of demonstrations the demand
will decrease.
2. If the annual inflation rate is low the demand will
increase.
3. If there are a lot of flood disasters, the demand will
decerase.
All condition above can be converted to a table as follows:
TABLE II. FUZZY RULE BASE
Antecedent Consequent
IF Value Demand
Demonstration Intensity High Decrease
Annual Inflation Low Increase
Flood Disaster High Decrease

The knowledge on table II can be implemented into fuzzy
rule based system
IV. FUZZY RULE BASED SYSTEM TO ENHANCE THE
ANAL TICAL DEMAND FORECASTING
The demand forecasting can be reevaluated
using the fuzzy rule based system. All factors that influence
the demand are represented into fuzzy rule. How the fuzzy
logic gives the suggestion described in the fig. 4.

Figure 4. How Fuzzy Logic Works
The combination between two or more rule can be
calculated using a method. In fig. 4, the methode to find
solution S, is centroid defuzzification. Finally the
defuzzification suggests that the demand
forecasting should be changed to be greater. In this case, the
Point P1 in fig. 3 is better taken. If the real demand is
known, the error can be calculated using (1).

ACKNOWLEDGMENT
I thank to Rinaldi Munir (STEI ITB) for Fuzzy Logic
and especially for the development of fuzzy rule based
application to enhance the anal tical demand; and Della Y.
Temenggung (FTI ITB) for demand.
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