Shake, Rattle and Roll: Canadian C di Earthquake E th k Risk Ri k

Jay Guin, Ph.D. and Arash Nasseri, Ph.D.

AGENDA Background and motivation for modeling Canadian risks Seismic risk in Canada Recent updates to the AIR Earthquake Model for C Canada d Newly added sub-perils of the AIR Earthquake Model

THE INCIDENCE OF INSURED NATURAL CATASTROPHE LOSSES IS ON THE RISE

Trended Insured Loss (adjusted to 2011)
CA AD Millions 2 500 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Insurance Bureau of f Canada, C 2013 FACTS of the Property & Casualty Insurance Industry in Canada http://www.ibc.ca/en/Need_More_Info/Facts_Book/index.asp 3

THE INCREASES IN LOSS REFLECT CHANGES IN CANADIAN DEMOGRAPHICS AND INSURANCE PRACTICES
Increases in losses may be impacted by: P&C insurance premiums Population growth Changes in the building stock

Million ns

40 35 30 25 20 15 10 1980 1984

Total Population
Premiums (CAD mn)

7,000

Total Premium Written

Personal Property Ind & Com Property

6,000

5,000

40% increase since 1980

4,000

15% increase in total premiums in five years

1988

1992

1996

2000

2004

2008

2012

3,000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

AIR HIGH RESOLUTION INDUSTRY EXPOSURE DATABASE REFLECTS THE INCREASE IN THE VALUE AT RISK

800 Million CAD

The1 km2 grid cell contains exposure value by occupancy construction type occupancy, type, and height

MOST OF THE RECENT SIGNIFICANT LOSSES WERE CAUSED BY ATMOSPHERIC PERILS

Year 1998 2005 2010 1991 1987 2011 1998 1996 2004 2003 2000 1996 1985 1999 2006 2008 2002 2008 2010 1996 Date January August 19 July 12-13 Sept. 7 July 31 Aug 28-30 Aug. 28 30 January July 16 July 2-11 Sept. 28 28-29 29 May 12 July 16-18 May 31 January Nov. 15-Dec. 15 September March 9 June 10 J ne 5 June 5-6 6 July 24-25 Place Southern Quebec Ontario Calgary and southern Alberta Calgary Edmonton New Brunswick, Brunswick Quebec and Ontario Eastern Ontario Winnipeg Edmonton Nova Scotia & Prince Edward Island Southern Ontario Calgary Barrie ON Southern Ontario British Columbia Saskatchewan Ontario Several regions in Quebec Ontario Calgary Event Ice storm Wind/rainstorm Hail/thunderstorm Hail Tornado Hurricane Irene Ice storm Flooding/hail Hail Hurricane Juan Storm Hail Tornado Snowstorm Storm Hail Wind Hail Wind/th nderstorm Wind/thunderstorm Hail Insured Loss (mnCAD) (adjusted to 2011) 1,818 700 545 496 260 239 223 198 190 163 161 161 160 155 146 139 133 131 131 115

AIR IS RELEASING AN UPDATED SUITE OF ATMOSPHERIC PERIL MODELS IN 2015

Source: Sills, et al. (2012)

AIR was selected by the Insurance Bureau of Canada t conduct to d t the th most t comprehensive study of seismic risk ever undertaken for Canada. The study is now considered to be state of the science in understanding Canada Canadas s earthquake risk.

Seismic Risk in Canada

CANADA EARTHQUAKE FAST FACTS

3,000 to 4,500 earthquakes occur in Canada each year. On average, average one earthquake per week is strong enough to be felt. Those earthquakes powerful enough to be felt often occur offshore or in remote and largely unpopulated areas. Canadas largest recorded earthquake was a M8.1 event in 1949 along l the h Q Queen Charlotte Ch l F Fault l off ff of fB British ii h Columbia. Major events in the Cascadia Subduction Zone have occurred approximately every 500 years in the historical record. Last was about 300 years agoan estimated M9 event in 1700.

10

TWO MAJOR ACTIVE SEISMIC ZONES IN CANADA

Charlevoix Seismic Zone

Last significant event: M6.0 in Saguenay, 1988

Cascadia Subduction Zone

Last significant event: M7.7 in Haida Gwaii, Gwaii 2012

11

CASCADIA SUBDUCTION ZONE OVERVIEW Formed by Juan de Fuca Plate converging and sliding beneath North American Plate
Three types of earthquakes: Megathrust Deep interface Shallow crustal Can affect wide geographic area and give rise to tsunamis Long period seismic waves

12

CHARLEVOIX SEISMIC ZONE OVERVIEW Seismicity in eastern Canada is very different

Part of the stable interior of the North American Plate Relatively low level of earthquake activity C Causes of f earthquakes h k i in this area are not well known g stress Related to regional fields Crustal weakness Complex faulting

13

Updates of the AIR Canada Earthquake Model

14

AIR NEW MODEL INCORPORATES THE LATEST DATA, SCIENCE AND MODELING TECHNIQUES
Pre-release access to historic earthquake catalog from Geological Survey of Canada (GSC, 2012) Latest active fault data in and surrounding Canada Extensive geodetic data covering western Canada and USA Detailed geological and geotechnical data for characterizing site conditions Latest Ground Motion Prediction Equations and basin effects
GSC 2012 Historical Catalog Model Based on 2003 GSC M d lB Model Based d on 2012 GSC

15

GPS DATA AND KINEMATIC MODEL RESULTS ARE INTEGRATED WITH HISTORICAL DATA
Controlled by Earthquake Catalog Controlled by Catalog, Fault Slip Rates, and GPS Data

Cumulative Rate

Magnitude

Collaborated with Dr. Robert McAffrey to estimate crustal strain rates GPS data is used to estimate Cascadia fault locking and crustal deformation rates in the west
16

DISTRIBUTION OF SIMULATED EVENT RUPTURES FOLLOWS THE HISTORICAL DATA

stochastic events

17

SHAKE DAMAGE MODULE IS UPDATED BASED ON THE STUDY OF BUILDING VULNERABILITY IN CANADA Collaborated with local researchers to y the vulnerability y of Canadian study buildings and infrastructures Used observational data, engineering analysis and lessons from recent events Incorporated seismic code evolution in temp spatial variation of vulnerability temp-spatial Added industrial facility module (IFM) and infrastructures

18

VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT OF A BUILDING IS INFORMED BY SEISMIC DESIGN CODE

Seismic Code Levels to Classify Vulnerability
Vul. Class (Code Level) Pre Low I II I Moderate II III I High II III I Special II II IV With very stringent seismic consideration With stringent seismic consideration With moderate seismic consideration Description Without seismic consideration, mostly refers to non-engineered buildings With minimal seismic consideration

Decreasing Vulnerability
Pre Code Low Code Moderate High Code Code Special Code

19

SEISMIC DESIGN CODE REFLECTS EVOLUTION IN UNDERSTANDING OF VULNERABILITY

Pre 1954 1954 - 1972 1973 - 1987 1988 -1997 1998 -2007 Post 2007

1941

1953

1970
1st fully probabilistic seismic hazard map p

1985
Hazard map based on 475 RP

1988
M5.9 Saguenay Earthquake

1st National 1st Seismic Building Zonation Code Map of Canada (NBCC)

1990 1995
Same map, updated design force, force ultimate strength design

2005
Major update, UHS. 2 475 RP

2010
Minor update

20

Earthquake Sub-Perils

21

CASCADIA SUBDUCTION ZONE EARTHQUAKES POSE A TSUNAMI THREAT

Courtesy: Natori, Miyagi, 2011 Tohoku Tsunami

Source: Natural Resources Canada

AIR introduces a fully probabilistic tsunami model

Uses bathymetry data data, ground motion parameters (slip rate rate, magnitude magnitude,) ) Based on linear/nonlinear shallow water equations Uses high resolution inner grids Incorporates astronomical tides Considers the levees and account for probabilistic levee failure
22

TSUNAMI SIMULATION MODEL CAPTURES THE PROGRESSION OF WATER INTO THE LAND
Model provides height, velocity and arrival time of the inundation

23

24

LOSSES DUE TO LIQUEFACTION HAVE BECOME AN AREA OF CONCERN

Risk of significant damage due to liquefaction was highlighted by the 2010 and 2011 earthquakes in New Zealand

Photos from AIR damage survey in NZ

Fraser River delta and Richmond lowlands are highly susceptible to li liquefaction f ti d due t to loose granular sediments and high ate table tab e water

25

LIQUEFACTION MODULE USES EXTENSIVE GEOLOGICAL AND GROUND WATER DATA

26

UPDATED AIR MODEL FOR CANADA ESTIMATES DAMAGE CAUSED BY LANDSLIDES IN THE ELEVATED AREAS

Slope is calculated from high resolution digital elevation maps

Surficial and bedrock geology maps are used to identify material properties

27

FINER RESOLUTION, BETTER IGNITION MECHANISM AND ENHANCED FIRE SPREAD MODULE
AIRs updated fire following earthquake model runs on a 1 km2 grid Enhanced building to building fire spread modeling utilizes the latest cellular automata modeling techniques

Source: Google

Updated fire suppression modeling explicitly accounts for the Vancouver Dedicated Fire Protection System auxiliary water supply

28

VARIOUS COMPONENTS OF THE CANADA EARTHQUAKE MODEL HAVE BEEN PEER REVIEWED Hazard component has been extensively peer reviewed by p Mazzotti from Montpellier p University y in Prof. Stephane France and a former geophysicist in GSC Vulnerability component has been peer reviewed by Prof. Marie Jose Nollet from cole de technologie suprieure in Marie-Jose Montreal Fire following component has been peer reviewed by Dr. Keisuke Himoto from Kyoto University in Japan and Dr. Geoff Thomas from Victoria University in New Zealand

29

AIRs IBC STUDY

30

WESTERN SCENARIO: M9.0 EARTHQUAKE FROM THE CASCADIA SUBDUCTION ZONE

Magnitude 9, depth 11 km 75km from Vancouver Island 300km from downtown Vancouver

Direct loss of 62 billion CAD Total economic loss of 75 billion CAD (direct + indirect) Total Insured loss of 20 billion CAD
31

WESTERN SCENARIO: LOSS BREAK DOWN

0.9 0.2 15.7 Residential 40.7 Commercial/ Industrial Auto 58.2 59 5.9 Agricultural 0.06 13.8 4.9 16.8 30 6 30.6 12.0 0.2 Trasnportation-Roads Transportation-Railways Ai Airport t Port Pipeline-oil Pipeline-water Pipeline-Gas Electrical transmission Telecom

0.9 71 7.1

8.9 Shake 39.9 55.3 83 1 83.1 4.8 Tsunami FFE Liquefaction/Landslide

32

EASTERN SCENARIO: M7.1 EARTHQUAKE FROM THE CHARLEVOIX SEISMIC ZONE

Magnitude 7.1, depth 10km 100km east of Quebec City

Direct loss of 49 billion CAD Total economic loss of 61 billion CAD (direct + indirect) Total Insured loss of 12 billion CAD
33

EASTERN SCENARIO: LOSS BREAK DOWN

0.7 0.8 0.2 Trasnportation-Roads Residential Commercial/ Industrial Auto 57.0 Agricultural 9.1 5.9 06 0.6 0.0 2.0 25 8 25.8 Transportation-Railways Ai Airport t Port 49.3 7.2 Pipeline-oil Pipeline-water Pipeline-Gas Electrical transmission Telecom

41.6

1.5

0.6

3.5 Shake Tsunami FFE

97.8

96.5

Liquefaction/Landslide

34

CATASTROPHE MODELS REPRESENT FULL RANGE OF EARTHQUAKE SIZES & TYPES

Small to moderate magnitude shallow crustal events can cause 100 to 500-year 100500 year damage levels in the Saint Lawrence and Ottawa River Valley and impact Ottawa and Toronto

Western Canada 100-500 Year Event Sample

Events in the Cascadia Subduction Zone clustered on the southern tip of Vancouver Island can cause 100to 500-year damage levels in British Columbia
Eastern Canada 100-500 Year Event Sample
35

SUMMARY
Catastrophes by nature are unpredictable and are not dictated by the historical record. The risk in Canada is real and likely higher than the historical record might indicate. indicate Earthquake science is continuing to evolve and lessons learned from global events impacts our understanding of the risk in Canada Canada. A comprehensive view of earthquake risk includes an understanding of damage from the associated sub-perils sub perils as well as damage from ground shaking. The areas of large population where significant loss can occur are not just confined to Vancouver or Quebec City. The updated p AIR Earthquake q Model for Canada will be released in July 2014 and features a unified catalog for the US and Canada
36