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TRAINING

Technical Analysis
12 Nov 2009

Haryajid Ramelan, CFP, RFC, CPRM, RIFA

TRAINING

TECHNICAL ANALISIS

Bagian Pertama
1. Introduction (TA)
2. Fundamental Vs TA
3. Dasar Analisa Teknis
4. Theory Dow
5. Three Past of Market
6. Trend & penggunaannya
7. Accumulation, Distribustion & Mark-up

TRAINING

TECHNICAL ANALISIS

Bagian Kedua
8. Support & Resisten & Combine
9. Channel
10. Bilangan Fibonacci
11. Retracement
12. One day trading
13. Pattern ( Reversal )
14. Pattern (Consolidate)

TRAINING

TECHNICAL ANALISIS
1. Cash Price
2. Short Term Interest Rate
3. Holding and Storage cost
4. Capital Gain/Capital Loss
5. Volatility Market
6. Market Sentimen
7. Composition Index

TRAINING

TECHNICAL ANALISIS

Beberapa Hal yang perlu diketahui


Investor:
1. Hindari Greedy
2. Disiplin dalam berinvestasi
3. Kebijakan Investasi
4. Strategi Investasi
5. Kondisi yang mempengaruhi
6. Mengukur dan Evaluasi Kinerja

TRAINING

TECHNICAL ANALISIS

Awalnya.

Dana Investasi
cukup

Rajin mencari
informasi.

Salah mendeteksi
saham.

Akibatnya.

SUN SZU TEORI


Bila kita mengenali diri sendiri dan musuh kita,
kita tidak akan takut perang.
Bila kita mengenali diri sendiri tetapi tidak
mengenali musuh kita, maka kita akan kalah
dalam setiap peperangan yang kita menangkan;
dan bila kita tidak mengenal diri sendiri serta
musuh kita, maka kita tidak akan pernah
menang

INTRODUCTION
Technical Analysis hingga kini digunakan
sebagian orang sebagai salah satu
tools didalam berinvestasi.
Baik pada saham, indeks, komoditi
maupun mata uang tertentu. Berbagai
investasi pada pasar uang dan pasar
modal tak terelakkan untuk tidak
menggunakan tools tersebut

INTRODUCTION

The Market is always right ?

Greedy & Emosi banyak berperan

Kebutuhan data ( Fund / TA )


gambler
Motive Investor

INTRODUCTION

INTRODUCTION

INTRODUCTION
Analisa teknis merupakan satu tools
yang dapat digunakan untuk melihat

aksi & reaksi dari suatu pasar dan


dapat juga untuk memprediksikan
kearah mana pasar akan bergerak.

Prinsip Dasar Analis Teknis


HOPE

Fundamental

Kinerja (expektasi) saham


Industri
Kondisi Macro & Micro
Long Term

V
S

REALITY

Technical

Historical Price
Pattern
Indicator
Trading System

Short
Term

Introduction Technical
Analysis
Salah satu tools investasi
Chart ( Historical Price )
Kebutuhan software
Chartist dapat mendeteksi kondisi yang telah
terjadi dan tengah terjadi pada saat itu.
Sehingga user dapat memprediksikan kemana
arah pergerakkan selanjutnya.

Dasar Analisa Teknis


TA adalah suatu study yang mempercayai adanya

suatu pola berulang yang terjadi dipasar, serta


adanya indikator yang dapat memberikan

prediksi

kearah mana pergerakkan selanjutnya.

TA sangat tidak mempercayai adanya pergerakkan


random yang terjadi dipasar. Sebab TA lebih
mempercayai adanya pola, trend maupun indicator
yang terjadi dipasar, untuk dapat
mengidentifikasikan harga berikutnya.

ANALOGY TREND
Analogy Positif ( Uptrend ) IPO
Analogi Negatif ( Downtrend )
News/Rumors

Theory Dow
Market action, repeat

themselves, prilaku pasar

TA tidak percaya pada Random


Walk
Life Cycle

BASIC Technical Analysis


Hang Seng (14,881.92, 14,897.80, 14,806.96, 14,885.65, +0.08008)

16500
16000
15500
15000
14500
14000
13500
13000
12500
12000
11500
11000
10500
10000
9500
9000
8500
8000
15000
10000
5000
x100000

2000 2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

BASIC Technical Analysis

analisa teknis mengkompiling berbagai


informasi yang ada dan tertuang pada chart

BASIC Technical Analysis


1200
1150
1100
1050
1000
950
900
850
800
750
700
650
600
550
500
450
400
350
300
250
200

IHSG (1,095, 1,100, 1,092, 1,100)

1200
1150
1100
1050
1000
950
900
850
800
750
700
650
600
550
500
450
400
350
300
250
200

T
T T
U

T
T
U

T
U

U
Volume (0.00000)

40000

40000

30000

30000

20000

20000

10000

10000

x100000

x100000

1996

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

Starting Point

Komponen Chart

Historical Harga & Volume

Type Chart

Line chart

Bar Chart

Point and Figure

Candle chart

Type Chart
Line Chart

TLKM (9,450.00, 9,450.00, 9,300.00, 9,350.00, -100.000)

9900
9800
9700
9600
9500
9400
9300
9200
9100
9000
8900
8800
8700
8600
8500
8400
8300
8200
8100
8000
7900
7800
7700
7600

b.

a.

7500
1 7
August

14 22 28

4
11 18
September

25

2
9
October

16

30 6
13
November

20

27

4
D

TYPE CHART
BAR CHART
Close & High

BAR CHART
17500

d.

17000

16500

Open
16000

Low
15500

15000

14500

c.
926 4 16 23 30 6 13 20 27 6 13 2027 3 10 17 24 1 15 22 29 5 1219 26 3 10 182
2006
February March
April
May
June
July

Type Chart
Point & Figur Chart
Point & Figur Chart

f.

e.

Type Chart
Point & Figur Chart

f.

Type Chart
Candlestick Chart
Candlestick Chart
AALI (0.0, 10,450.00, 10,300.00, 10,300.00, -150.000)

h.

g.

10500

10000

9500

9000

8500

1
7
August

14 22

28

4
11
September

18

25

2
9
October

16

30

6
13
November

20

27

4
D

Type Chart
Candlestick Chart

WHICH CHART TO USE ?

Time Choice

Time Choice
Daily Chart
37000
36000
35000
34000
33000
32000
31000
30000
29000
28000
27000
26000
25000
24000
23000
22000
21000
20000
19000
18000
17000
16000
15000
14000
13000
12000
11000
10000
9000

37000
36000
35000
34000
33000
32000
31000
30000
29000
28000
27000
26000
25000
24000
23000
22000
21000
20000
19000
18000
17000
16000
15000
14000
13000
12000
11000
10000
9000

ASII (30,450.00, 31,650.00, 30,100.00, 31,600.00, +1,250.00), Parabolic SAR (32,691.50)

10000

10000

5000

5000

x1000

x1000

10
h

16

23

30
6
April

13

20

27

4
May

11

18

25

1
8
June

15

22

29
6
July

13

21

27

3
10
August

18

24

31
7
14
September

28

5
12
October

19

26

2
9
16
November

23

Time Choice
Weekly Chart
ASII (30,450.00, 31,650.00, 30,100.00, 31,600.00, +1,250.00), Parabolic SAR (34,975.28)

37000
36000
35000
34000
33000
32000
31000
30000
29000
28000
27000
26000
25000
24000
23000
22000
21000
20000
19000
18000
17000
16000
15000
14000
13000
12000
11000
10000
9000
8000
7000
6000
5000

37000
36000
35000
34000
33000
32000
31000
30000
29000
28000
27000
26000
25000
24000
23000
22000
21000
20000
19000
18000
17000
16000
15000
14000
13000
12000
11000
10000
9000
8000
7000
6000
5000

10000

10000

5000

5000

x10000

x10000

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

2009

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

2010

Time Choice
Monthly Chart
ASII (30,500.00, 31,650.00, 29,750.00, 31,600.00, +300.000), Parabolic SAR (15,808.21)
35000

35000

30000

30000

25000

25000

20000

20000

15000

15000

10000

10000

5000

5000

50000
45000
40000
35000
30000
25000
20000
15000
10000

50000
45000
40000
35000
30000
25000
20000
15000
10000

x10000

x10000

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

Three Phases of Market

Three Phases of Market


Congestion ( Titik
keseimbangan / Ekuilibrium )
Trending (Uptrend / Downtrend)
Random

Basic Principle The Dow Theory


1. The Average Discount Everything
2. There are Three trend in the market,
namely, primary trend, secondary reason &
minor trends.
3.Primary Uptrends usualy have three up moves
4.Primary Downtrends ussualy have three down moves
5.To signal a bull or bear trend, the two averages
must confirm each other
6.Only Closing Price are used
7. A trend remain effective untuil a reversal
has been signaled by both average

Theory Dow &


Trending

Trending
Primary Trend 1thn 3thn
Intermediate Trend 6 bln
1thn
Short (minor) Trend 5hr 6bln

Akumulasi, Mark-Up
Distribusi

Primary
Trend

Intermediate
trend

Minor trend

Theory Dow &


Trending (Volatility)
L o w v o la tility

UPTREND

H ig h v o la tility

L o w v o la tility

S ID E W A Y S

H ig h v o la tility

L o w v o la tility

DOW NTREND

H ig h v o la tility

Theory Dow &


Trending
ASII (30,450.00, 31,650.00, 30,100.00, 31,600.00, +1,250.00)

37000

37000

36000
35000
34000

33000
32000

31000
30000
29000

23000
22000
21000
20000
19000
18000
17000
16000
15000
14000
13000
12000

33000
32000
31000
30000
29000

1. PRIMARY TREND
2. INTERMEDIATE TREND
3. MINOR TREND

28000
27000
26000
25000
24000

36000
35000
34000

28000
27000
26000
25000
24000
23000
22000
21000
20000
19000
18000
17000
16000
15000
14000
13000
12000

11000
10000
9000

11000
10000
9000

8000
7000

8000
7000

6000
5000

6000
5000
Oct

Nov

Dec

2008

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

2009

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Theory Dow &


Trending

BUMI Uptrend &


Downtrend

Theory Dow &


Trending
Hang Seng Index (18,889.92, 18,989.51, 18,759.34, 18,878.42, +9.88086)
19000
18500
18000
17500
17000
16500
16000
15500
15000
30000
25000
20000
15000
10000
5000
x100000
ary

March

April

May

June

July

August

September

October

November

Theory Dow &


Trending

Accumulation &
Distribution

Trend lines

Trend lines

Uptrend

Downtrend

Garis trend umumnya dibentuk pada closing price

Trend lines
Downtrend

ISAT (5,200, 5,250, 4,950, 4,950)

6500

6000
5500

Uptrend

5000
4500
4000
3500
3000
2500

Uptrend

2000
1500

Volume (14,260,000)
50000

x1000

May Jun

Jul

Aug Sep

Oct

Nov Dec 2004

Mar

Apr

May Jun

Jul Aug

Sep Oct

Nov Dec

2005

Mar

Analisa Subyektif

Kemampuan user ( membaca chart )

Bagian dari Analisa Klasik

Masing masing bisa berbeda


penafsiran maupun tools yang
digunakan.

Support & Resisten


Melihat high level / Low Level.
Menandai adanya minat beli/jual
Closing Price ( Range tertentu )
Historical Data semakin pjg
(Valid)

Horizontal Support
and Resisten Line
TLKM (8,700.00, 8,700.00, 8,600.00, 8,650.00, -50.0000)
13000
12500
12000
11500
11000
10500
10000
9500
9000
8500
8000
7500
7000
6500
6000
5500
5000
4500
Volume (11,219,000)

15000
10000
5000
x10000

2007 Nov

Dec

2008

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

2009

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Perubahan Support
Resisten Support

Support Resisten
Dibentuk dr Trend Line

Support Resisten
& Trend Line
N
b

1500

1500

a
1000

1000
COMBINASI SUPPORT LINE & RESISTEN
& TREND LINES

_
`
500

500

^
1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

Support Resisten
IHSG (1,148, 1,160, 1,146, 1,158)

1200

Resisten

1200

1150

1150

1100

1100

1050

Resisten
Support

1000

1050
1000

950

950

900

900

850

850

800

Resisten

800

Resisten

750

750

700

700

Support

650
600

Resisten

550
500

650
600

R Support

550
500

Support

450

450

400

400

350

350

300

Support

Support

300

250

250

200

200
1996

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

Contoh Support
Resisten & Channel

Kombinasi
Sup-Res dengan Channel

Channel Lines

Adanya trend dari saham yang


tengah bergerak naik ataupun
turun, bisa dijadikan level
support dan resisten.
Trend demikian biasa dikenal
dengar Channel Line

Channel Lines

Bentuk channel sering terjadi, dan dimanfaatkan


oleh user untuk trading jangka pendek

Channel Lines

Channel Line
Pada Saham PGAS
PGAS (11,000.00, 11,150.00, 10,950.00, 10,950.00, -50.0000)

14000
13000
12000
11000
10000
9000
8000
7000
6000
5000

4000

3000

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov Dec

2006 Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct Nov

Dec

Reversal Trend
Pola reversal dapat
diidentifikasikan
dengan garis trend
(naik/turun), baik
jk pendek,
menengah /
panjang dan dapat
dilihat dari garis
moving averages.

Reversal Trend
Pada Nikkei
18500
18000
17500
17000
16500

16000
15500
15000
14500
14000
13500
13000
12500

September

November December

2006

February

March

April

May

June

July

Reversal Trend
BBCA (2,525, 2,550, 2,500, 2,525)

REVERSAL or CONTINUE

N
[

SELL

August

September

October

November

December
2003

February

March

April

May

2650
2600
2550
2500
2450
2400
2350
2300
2250
2200
2150
2100
2050
2000
1950
1900
1850
1800
1750
1700
1650
1600
1550
1500
1450
1400

Reversal Trend

Reversal Trend
Sup-Res, Trend, MA

Resisten

Support

ANALISA DGN
PIVOT POINT
Analisa ini digunakan untuk trading jangka pendek dan
dibantu support & resisten harian yang diformulasikan.
Beberapa hal yang perlu diketahui dari pivot point
Pivot point memiliki dua buah support dan dua buah resisten
Pivot point digunakan sebagian besar untuk jangka pendek.
Pivot point mampu melihat kadar penguatan atau penurunan
dengan bantuan kedua support dan resisten.
Pivot point dapat dikombinasikan dengan penggunaan MA.
Mengkombinasikan pivot point dengan volume dianjurkan.

ANALISA DGN
PIVOT POINT

Resisten 2

Formula pada pivot point adalah

Resisten 1

1. Pivot Point = (H1+L1+C1)/3


Resisten :
2. R1= ( 2xP ) L1
3. R2= P + ( H1 L1 )
Support

Pivot Point
Support 2
Support 1

S1 = ( 2 x P ) H1
S2 = P (H1 L1)

Dimana :

P = Pivot point
H1 = high previus
L1 = Low Previus
C1 = Close Previus

ANALISA DGN
PIVOT POINT

3600
Pivot point

3500

SI
3400

S II

3300

R1

3200

R2

3100
1

ANALISA DGN
PIVOT POINT
DATA PADA PIVOT POINT
Date
Open
High
3/4/2003
3575
3575
3/5/2003
3450
3475
3/6/2003
3400
3425
3/7/2003
3400
3425
3/10/2003
3375
3375
3/11/2003
3225
3225
3/12/2003
3250
3425
3/13/2003
3400
3400

Low
Close
3475
3475
3375
3400
3375
3425
3350
3375
3250
3250
3150
3225
3250
3400
3275
3325

Pivot
point

SI

S II

R1

R2

3,508.3
3,416.7
3,408.3
3,383.3
3,291.7
3,200.0
3,358.3

3,441.7
3,358.3
3,391.7
3,341.7
3,208.3
3,175.0
3,291.7

3,408.3
3,316.7
3,358.3
3,308.3
3,166.7
3,125.0
3,183.3

3,541.7
3,458.3
3,441.7
3,416.7
3,333.3
3,250.0
3,466.7

3,608.3
3,516.7
3,458.3
3,458.3
3,416.7
3,275.0
3,533.3

ANALISA DGN
PIVOT POINT
4700

C lose
P ivot point
SI
S II
R1
R2

3700

4/29/2003

4/15/2003

4/1/2003

3/18/2003

3/4/2003

2700

Fibonacci
Fibonacci merupakan angka unik dan dalam
TA dijadikan landasan untuk melihat titik
balik, seperti Fibonacci Retracement &
Fibonaci Fan Lines
Formula Fibonaci ini banyak
Seperti :
dipergunakan dalam
1+2=3
perhitungan TA seperti
2+3=5
Fibonacci Retracement dan
3+5=8
Elliot Wave
5 + 8 =13
8 + 13=21,
Sehingga kalau dilihat : 1,2,3,5,8,13,21,34,55,dst

Retracement Level
Retracement Level adalah
Metode atau tools yang dapat
mengindikasikan titik balik
pada suatu saham pada trend
naik / turun

BASIC Technical
Analysis

Ada 3 bentuk retracement


Fibonacci Fan Lines
Fibonacci Retracement
Speed Resisten Line.

Fibonacci Fan Lines


UNTR (15,100.00, 15,750.00, 14,900.00, 15,700.00, +700.000)
17000

38 %

16000
15000

50 %
62 %

FIBONACCI FAN LINES PADA UNTR

14000
13000
12000
11000
10000
9000
8000
7000
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000

50000
40000
30000
20000
10000
x1000

rch

April

May

June

July

August

September

November

2009

February March

April

May

June

July

August

September

Novemb

Fibonacci Retracement
ASII (30,450.00, 31,650.00, 30,100.00, 31,600.00, +1,250.00)

37000
36000
35000
34000
33000
32000
31000
30000
29000
28000
27000
26000
25000
24000
23000
22000
21000
20000
19000
18000
17000
16000
15000
14000
13000
12000
11000
10000
9000
8000
7000
6000
5000

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

23.6%

23.6%

23.6%
38.2%
50.0%
61.8%

38.2%

38.2%

100.0%

50.0%

50.0%

61.8%

61.8%

161.8%

100.0%

261.8%

100.0%

FIBONACCI RETRACEMENT
423.6%

161.8%
161.8%

Volume (5,376,000)

30000

37000
36000
35000
34000
33000
32000
31000
30000
29000
28000
27000
26000
25000
24000
23000
22000
21000
20000
19000
18000
17000
16000
15000
14000
13000
12000
11000
10000
9000
8000
7000
6000
5000
30000

25000

25000

20000

20000

15000

15000

10000

10000

5000

5000

x1000

x1000

arch April

May

June

July

August September

November

2009

FebruaryMarch April

May

June

July

August September

Novem

Fibonacci Retracement

Speed Resisten Line


ASII (30,450.00, 31,650.00, 30,100.00, 31,600.00, +1,250.00)

37000
36000
35000
34000
33000
32000
31000
30000
29000
28000
27000
26000
25000
24000
23000
22000
21000
20000
19000
18000
17000
16000
15000
14000
13000
12000
11000
10000
9000
8000
7000
6000
5000

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

1/3

23.6%

23.6%

23.6%
38.2%
50.0%
61.8%

38.2%

38.2%

100.0%

50.0%

50.0%

61.8%

61.8%

161.8%

100.0%

261.8%

100.0%

2/3

FIBONACCI RETRACEMENT
423.6%

161.8%
161.8%

Volume (5,376,000)

30000

37000
36000
35000
34000
33000
32000
31000
30000
29000
28000
27000
26000
25000
24000
23000
22000
21000
20000
19000
18000
17000
16000
15000
14000
13000
12000
11000
10000
9000
8000
7000
6000
5000
30000

25000

25000

20000

20000

15000

15000

10000

10000

5000

5000

x1000

x1000

arch April

May

June

July

August September

November

2009

FebruaryMarch April

May

June

July

August September

Novem

CHART PATTERN

Trading Pattern

1. Gapping / Windows
2. Candlestick chart

One Day Trading Pattern


( Gapping )
BUMI (2,350.00, 2,375.00, 2,225.00, 2,300.00, -25.0000)

3450

a
b

3400
3350
3300
3250
3200
3150
3100

3050

3000
2950
2900

2850
2800

2750

2700
2650
2600
2550

2500
2450
2400
2350
2300
2250
2200
2150

13

21

27

3
August

10

18

24

31
7
September

14

28

5
October

12

19

26

2
9
November

16

23

One Day Trading Pattern


( Gapping )
MEDC (2,675.00, 2,700.00, 2,575.00, 2,625.00, -75.0000)

3450
3400
3350

COMMON GAP

3300
3250
3200
3150
3100
3050
3000
2950
2900
2850
2800
2750

COMMON GAP

2700
2650
2600
2550

20000
15000
10000
5000
x10000

27

3
August

10

18

24

31

7
September

14

28

5
October

12

19

26

2
November

One Day Trading Pattern


( Gapping )
UNTR (5,200.00, 5,350.00, 5,100.00, 5,250.00, +0.0)
6000

5500

5000

4500

4000
6
March

13

20

27

3
April

11

17

24

1
May

15

22

One Day Trading Pattern


( Gapping )

One Day Trading Pattern


( Gapping )
Pengertian dari gap sendiri
adalah, adanya perubahan
harga pembukaan dalam
periode tertentu dengan
harga penutupan pada hari
berikutnya.

Ada 4 jenis gap :


Common Gap
Breakaway Gap
Continuation Gap
Exhaustion Gap

Common Gap

MEDC (2,675.00, 2,700.00, 2,575.00, 2,625.00, -75.0000)

3450
3400
3350

COMMON GAP

3300
3250
3200
3150
3100
3050
3000
2950
2900
2850
2800
2750

COMMON GAP

2700
2650
2600
2550

20000
15000
10000
5000
x10000

27

3
August

10

18

24

31

7
September

14

28

5
October

12

19

26

2
November

Common Gap

UNTR (5,200.00, 5,350.00, 5,100.00, 5,250.00, +0.0)


6000

5500

5000

4500

4000
6
March

13

20

27

3
April

11

17

24

1
May

15

22

Breakaway &
Continuation Gap
ISAT (8,900, 8,950, 8,800, 8,900)

breakaway gap

9500

9500

9000

9000

8500

8500

8000

8000

Bearish
Breakaway
gap

7500

7000

7500

7000

Continuation Gap

6500

23

30
7
October

14

21

28

4
11
November

6500

18

25

2
16
December

23 2
2003

Exhaustion Gap

Exhaustion Gap

AALI (1,575, 1,575, 1,525, 1,550)

Exhaustion Gap

1800

1800

1750

1750

1700

1700

1650

1650

1600

1600

1550

1550

1500

1500

1450

1450

1400

1400

1350

1350

1300

1300

1250

1250

1200

1200

1150

1150

1100

1100

1050

1050

1000

1000

950

950

900

900

850

850
ctober

November

December 2003

February

March

April

May

Day Trading
(Candle)

Day Trading
(Candle)

Day Trading
(Candle)

Day Trading
(Candle)

Doji Star Pattern

Reversal
Pattern
Head and Shoulder
Inverted Head and Shoulder
Triple Tops and Triple Bottoms
Double Tops / Double Bottoms
Source or Rounding Bottoms / Tops
V Formation / Spikes

Continuation
Pattern

Triangle

Flag and Pennant

Wedges

Rectangle Formation

Reversal Pattern
Head and Shoulder

h
LS

rS
rS

LS
h

Reversal Pattern
Head and Shoulder
BBRI (7,450.00, 7,500.00, 7,250.00, 7,450.00, +0.0)

8500

8000

7500

7000

6500

6000

5500

Volume (16,841,500)

50000
45000
40000
35000
30000
25000
20000
15000
10000

x1000

4
ay

11

18

25

1
June

15

22

29

6
July

13

21

27

3
10
August

18

24

31
7
September

14

28

5
October

12

19

26

2
9
November

16

23

Reversal Pattern
Head and Shoulder
TLKM (11,900.00, 12,050.00, 11,550.00, 11,550.00, -350.000)
13000

12500

HEAD & SHOULDER


PADA SAHAM TLKM

12000

11500

11000

10500

10000

9500

9000

8500

mber

2007

February

March

April

May

June

July

August

September

October

Nove

Reversal Pattern
Head and Shoulder
11800
11700
11600
11500
11400
11300
11200
11100
11000
10900
10800
10700
10600
10500
10400
10300
10200
10100
10000

Indeks Dow Jones (10,937.94, 10,995.73, 10,778.58, 10,868.38, -59.7197)

30000
20000
10000
x100000

ber October

November

December

2006

February

March

April

May

June

July

Au

Reversal Pattern
Head and Shoulder

Reversal Pattern
Head and Shoulder

Reversal Pattern
Head and Shoulder
HMSP (3,475, 3,775, 3,475, 3,550)

5000

5000

4500

4500

4000

4000

3500

3500

3000

3000

2500

2500

2000

2000
Volume (28,929,500)

10000

10000

5000

5000

x10000

x10000

001

M J

2002

2003

M A

Reversal Pattern
Head and Shoulder

Triple tops & Bottoms

Triple Tops & Bottoms

Triple Tops & Bottoms

Double Bottoms

Double Bottoms
3550

MEDC (2,675.00, 2,700.00, 2,575.00, 2,625.00, -75.0000)

3500
3450

3400

3350
3300

DOUBLE TOPS

3250
3200
3150
3100
3050
3000
2950
2900
2850
2800
2750
2700
2650
2600
2550
2500

15

22

29

6
July

13

21

27

3
10
August

18

24

31
7
September

14

28

5
October

12

19

26

2
9
November

16

23

Double Bottoms

Double Tops & Bottoms

Rounding Bottoms

Rounding Bottoms
PNBN (770.000, 770.000, 770.000, 770.000, +0.00)
1050
1000
950
900
850
800
750
700
650
600

ROUNDING TOP PADA PNBN

550
500
450
400

30000
25000
20000
15000
10000
5000
x10000

2008

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

2009

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Rounding Bottoms

Hang Seng (15,672.39, 15,792.36, 15,670.77, 15,787.97, +68.5996)

15900
15800
15700
15600
15500
15400
15300
15200
15100
15000
14900
14800
14700
14600
14500
14400
14300
14200
14100
14000
13900
13800
13700
13600
13500
13400
13300
13200
ary

April

May

June

July

August

September

November December 2006

15900
15800
15700
15600
15500
15400
15300
15200
15100
15000
14900
14800
14700
14600
14500
14400
14300
14200
14100
14000
13900
13800
13700
13600
13500
13400
13300
13200

Spikes Top / Bottoms

Spikes Top / Bottoms

ASII (14,700.00, 14,900.00, 14,650.00, 14,700.00, +0.0)

15500
15000
14500
14000
13500

SPIKES PATTERN

13000
12500
12000
11500
11000
10500
10000
9500
9000
8500
8000
Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

2006

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Triangle
Ascending Triangle

Descending Triangle

Triangle Pattern

ASII (14,700.00, 14,900.00, 14,650.00, 14,700.00, +0.0)

5500
5000
4500

SYMETRICAL TRIANGLE

4000
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
0500
0000
9500
9000
8500
8000

Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct NovDec 2006Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep OctNov

Triangle Pattern
24500

AALI (22,000.00, 22,350.00, 21,850.00, 22,200.00, +350.000)

24000

TARGET DARI ASCENDING TRIANGLE


23500
23000
22500
22000
21500
21000
20500
20000
19500
55000
50000
45000
40000
35000
30000
25000
20000
15000
10000
x1005000
0

18

24

31

7
September

14

28

5
October

12

19

26

2
November

16

23

Triangle Pattern

ADRO (1,550.00, 1,560.00, 1,530.00, 1,540.00, +0.00)


1650
1600
1550
1500
1450
1400
1350
1300

SYMETRICAL TRIANGLE PADA ADRO

1250
1200
1150
1100
1050
1000
950
50000

Volume (21,785,000)

40000
30000
20000
10000
x10000

4
ay

11

18

25

1
June

15

22

29

6
July

13

21

27

3
10
August

18

24

31
7
September

14

28

5
October

12

19

26

2
9
November

16

23

Triangle Pattern
ADRO (1,550.00, 1,560.00, 1,530.00, 1,540.00, +0.00)
1650
1600
1550
1500
1450
1400
1350
1300
1250

DESCENDING TRIANGLE PADA ADRO

1200
1150
1100
1050
1000
950
50000

Volume (21,785,000)

40000
30000
20000
10000
x10000

4
ay

11

18

25

1
June

15

22

29

6
July

13

21

27

3
10
August

18

24

31
7
September

14

28

5
October

12

19

26

2
9
November

16

23

Descending
Triangle

Descending Triangle

Descending
Triangle

Descending Triangle

Descending
Triangle

Flag Pattern

Flag Pattern

Flag Pattern

Flag Pattern

Wedges

Rising Wedges

Wedges

Rising Wedges

Wedges

Wedges

Rising Wedges

Wedges

TLKM (4,325, 4,350, 4,250, 4,300)

4700
4600
4500
4400
4300

4700
4600
4500
4400
4300

4200
4100
4000
3900
3800
3700
3600
3500
3400
3300
3200
3100
3000
2900
2800
2700
2600
2500
2400
2300

4200
4100
4000
3900
3800
3700
3600
3500
3400
3300
3200
3100
3000
2900
2800
2700
2600
2500
2400
2300
August

September

October

November

December
2003

February

March

April

May

Wedges

2650
2600
2550
2500
2450
2400
2350
2300
2250
2200
2150
2100
2050
2000
1950
1900
1850
1800
1750
1700
1650
1600
1550
1500
1450
1400

BBCA (2,525, 2,550, 2,500, 2,525)

October

November

December 2003

February

March

April

May

Rectangle Formation

Volume Analysis

Price
Up
Up
Down
Down

Volume
Up
Down
Up
Down

Market
Bullish
Bearish
Bearish
Bullish

Action
Buy
Sell
Sell
Buy

Volume Analysis

HMSP (4,450, 4,575, 4,400, 4,525)


4900
4800
4700
4600
4500
4400
4300
4200
4100
4000
3900
3800
3700
Volume (12,332,500)
20000
15000
10000
5000
x1000

28

4
February

11

18

25

4
March

11

18

25

1
April

15

PSIKOLOGIS LEVEL