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probability chapter 3

- ch05
- Statistics and Probability for Engineering Applications
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- Applied Statistics and probability for engineers example midterm
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- Applied Statistics and Probability for Engineers, Fifth Edition
- Applied Statistics Probability Engineers 3ed Montgomery Runger
- Chapter 13 - Student Solutions Manual Applied Statistics and Probability For
- ch10
- Wiley_ Student Solutions Manual Engineering Statistics, 5e - Douglas C. Montgomery, George C. Runger, Norma F
- Chapter 5
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- Application of Poisson Distribution
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CHAPTER 3

Section 3-1

0,1,2,...,1000

3-1.

The range of X is

3-2.

, ,...,50

3-3.

, ,...,99999

3-4.

, ,3,4,5

3-5.

The range of X is

selections.

1,2,...,491. Because 490 parts are conforming, a nonconforming part must be selected in 491

3-6.

, ,...,100 . Although the range actually obtained from lots typically might not exceed 10%.

3-7.

The range of X is conveniently modeled as all nonnegative integers. That is, the range of X is 0,12

, ,...

3-8.

The range of X is conveniently modeled as all nonnegative integers. That is, the range of X is 0,12

, ,...

3-9.

The range of X is

3-10.

The possible totals for two orders are 1/8 + 1/8 = 1/4, 1/8 + 1/4 = 3/8, 1/8 + 3/8 = 1/2, 1/4 + 1/4 = 1/2,

1/4 + 3/8 = 5/8, 3/8 + 3/8 = 6/8.

1 3 1 5 6

Therefore the range of X is , , , ,

4 8 2 8 8

3-11.

The range of X is

0,1,2,...,15

{0,1,2,,10000}

3-13.The range of X is {0,1,2,, 40000)

Section 3-2

3-14.

f X (0) P( X 0) 1 / 6 1 / 6 1 / 3

f X (1.5) P( X 1.5) 1 / 3

f X (2) 1 / 6

f X (3) 1 / 6

a) P(X = 1.5) = 1/3

b) P(0.5< X < 2.7) = P(X = 1.5) +P(X = 2) = 1/3 + 1/6 = 1/2

c) P(X > 3) = 0

d) P(0 X 2) P( X 0) P( X 1.5) 1/ 3 1/ 3 2 / 3

e) P(X = 0 or X = 2) = 1/3 + 1/6 = 1/2

3-15.

All probabilities are greater than or equal to zero and sum to one.

a) P(X 2)=1/8 + 2/8 + 2/8 + 2/8 + 1/8 = 1

b) P(X > - 2) = 2/8 + 2/8 + 2/8 + 1/8 = 7/8

3-1

d) P(X -1 or X=2) = 1/8 + 2/8 +1/8 = 4/8 =1/2

3-16.

All probabilities are greater than or equal to zero and sum to one.

a) P(X 1)=P(X=1)=0.5714

b) P(X>1)= 1-P(X=1)=1-0.5714=0.4286

c) P(2<X<6)=P(X=3)=0.1429

d) P(X1 or X>1)= P(X=1)+ P(X=2)+P(X=3)=1

3-17.

a) P(X = 4) = 9/25

b) P(X 1) = 1/25 + 3/25 = 4/25

c) P(2 X < 4) = 5/25 + 7/25 = 12/25

d) P(X > 10) = 1

3-18.

a) P(X = 2) = 3/4(1/4)2 = 3/64

b) P(X 2) = 3/4[1+1/4+(1/4)2] = 63/64

c) P(X > 2) = 1 P(X 2) = 1/64

d) P(X 1) = 1 P(X 0) = 1 (3/4) = 1/4

3-19.

P(X=0)=0.1(0.33)=0.033

P(X=1)=0.9(0.33)+0.1(0.67)=0.364

P(X=2)=0.9(0.67)=0.603

3-20.

P(X = 1) = 3[0.98(0.02)(0.02)]=0.0012

P(X = 2) = 3[0.98(0.98)(0.02)]=0.0576

P(X = 3) = 0.983 = 0.9412

3-21.

P(X=0) = (0.2)3 = 0.008

P(X=1) = 3(0.2)2(0.8) = 0.096

P(X=2) = 3(0.2)(0.8)2 = 0.384

P(X=3) = (0.8)3 = 0.512

3-22.

X: the number of computers that vote for a left roll when a right roll is appropriate.

p=0.0001.

P(X=0)=(1-p)4=0.99994=0.9996

P(X=1)=4*(1-p)3p=4*0.999930.0001=0.0003999

P(X=2)=C42(1-p)2p2=5.999*10-8

P(X=3)=C43(1-p)1p3=3.9996*10-12

P(X=4)=C40(1-p)0p4=1*10-16

3-23.

3-24.

3-25.

P(X = 15 million) = 0.6, P(X = 5 million) = 0.3, P(X = -0.5 million) = 0.1

3-26.

P(X=0) = (0.05)(0.02) = 0.001

P(X=1) = (0.05)(0.98) + (0.95)(0.02) = 0.068

P(X=2) = (0.95)(0.98) = 0.931

3-27.

P(X=0) = (0.05)(0.02)(0.01) = 0.00001

P(X=1) = (0.95)(0.02)(0.01) + (0.05)(0.98)(0.01)+(0.05)(0.02)(0.99) = 0.00167

P(X=2) = (0.95)(0.98)(0.01) + (0.95)(0.02)(0.99) + (0.05)(0.98)(0.99) = 0.07663

3-2

3.28.

X = final temperature

P(X=266) = 48/200 = 0.24

P(X=271) = 60/200 = 0.30

P(X=274) = 92/200 = 0.46

x 266

x 271

x 274

0.24,

f ( x) 0.30,

0.46,

3.29.

P(X=1) = 19/500 = 0.038

P(X=2) = 51/500 = 0.102

P(X=3) = 86/500 = 0.172

P(X=4) = 102/500 = 0.204

P(X=5) = 87/500 = 0.174

P(X=6) = 62/500 = 0.124

P(X=7) = 40/500 = 0.08

P(X=8) = 18/500 = 0.036

P(X=9) = 14/500 = 0.028

P(X=10) = 11/500 = 0.022

P(X=15) = 10/500 = 0.020

0.038,

0.102,

0.172,

0.204,

0.174,

f ( x) 0.124,

0.080,

0.036,

0.028,

0.022,

0.020,

3.30.

x 1

x2

x3

x4

x5

x6

x7

x8

x9

x 10

x 15

P(X=1.5) = 0.05

P(X=3) = 0.25

P(X=4.5) = 0.35

P(X=5) = 0.20

P(X=7) = 0.15

0.05,

0.25,

f ( x) 0.35,

0.20,

0.15,

x 1.5

x3

x 4.5

x5

x7

3-3

3.31.

P(X=255) = (1515+1343)/7726 = 0.370

P(X=218) = 26/7726 = 0.003

P(X=317) = 3290/7726 = 0.426

P(X=231) = 349/7726 = 0.045

P(X=267) = (280+887)/7726 = 0.151

P(X=217) = 36/7726 = 0.005

0.005,

0.003,

0.045,

f ( x)

0.370,

0.151,

0.426,

x 217

x 218

x 231

x 255

x 267

x 317

Section 3-3

3-32.

x0

0,

1 / 3 0 x 1.5

F ( x) 2 / 3 1.5 x 2

5 / 6 2 x 3

1

3 x

f X (0) P( X 0) 1 / 6 1 / 6 1 / 3

where

f X (1.5) P( X 1.5) 1 / 3

f X (2) 1 / 6

f X (3) 1 / 6

3-33.

x 2

0,

1 / 8 2 x 1

3 / 8 1 x 0

F ( x)

0 x 1

5 / 8

7 / 8

1 x 2

2 x

1

f X (2) 1 / 8

f X (1) 2 / 8

where

f X ( 0) 2 / 8

f X (1) 2 / 8

f X ( 2) 1 / 8

b) P(X 2.2) = 1

c) P(-1.1 < X 1) = 7/8 1/8 = 3/4

d) P(X > 0) = 1 P(X 0) = 1 5/8 = 3/8

3-34.

0

x 1

4 7 1 x 2

F(x)

6 7 2 x 3

3 x

1

a)

b)

c)

d)

P(X 3) = 1

P(X > 2) = 1 P(X 2) = 1 6/7 = 1/7

P(1 < X 2) = P(X 2) P(X 1) = 6/7 4/7 = 2/7

3-4

3-35.

x0

0,

0.008, 0 x 1

F ( x) 0.104, 1 x 2

0.488, 2 x 3

1,

3 x

.

f (0) 0.2 3 0.008,

f (1) 3(0.2)(0.2)(0.8) 0.096,

f (2) 3(0.2)(0.8)(0.8) 0.384,

f (3) (0.8) 3 0.512,

3-36.

.

x0

0,

f (0) 0.9999 4 0.9996,

0.9996, 0 x 1

F ( x ) 0.9999, 1 x 3

f (2) 5.999 *108 ,

0.99999, 3 x 4

4 x

1,

f (4) 1*1016

3-37.

x 10

0,

0.2, 10 x 25

F ( x)

0.5, 25 x 50

1,

50 x

where P(X = 50 million) = 0.5, P(X = 25 million) = 0.3, P(X = 10 million) = 0.2

3-38.

x 1

0,

0.1, 1 x 5

F ( x)

0.7, 5 x 10

1,

10 x

where P(X = 10 million) = 0.3, P(X = 5 million) = 0.6, P(X = 1 million) = 0.1

3-39.

The sum of the probabilities is 1 and all probabilities are greater than or equal to zero;

pmf: f(1) = 0.5, f(3) = 0.5

3-5

a) P(X 3) = 1

b) P(X 2) = 0.5

c) P(1 X 2) = P(X=1) = 0.5

d) P(X>2) = 1 P(X2) = 0.5

3-40.

The sum of the probabilities is 1 and all probabilities are greater than or equal to zero;

pmf: f(1) = 0.7, f(4) = 0.2, f(7) = 0.1

a) P(X 4) = 0.9

b) P(X > 7) = 0

c) P(X 5) = 0.9

d) P(X>4) = 0.1

e) P(X2) = 0.7

3-41.

The sum of the probabilities is 1 and all probabilities are greater than or equal to zero;

pmf: f(-10) = 0.25, f(30) = 0.5, f(50) = 0.25

a) P(X50) = 1

b) P(X40) = 0.75

c) P(40 X 60) = P(X=50)=0.25

d) P(X<0) = 0.25

e) P(0X<10) = 0

f) P(10<X<10) = 0

3-42.

The sum of the probabilities is 1 and all probabilities are greater than or equal to zero;

pmf: f1/8) = 0.2, f(1/4) = 0.7, f(3/8) = 0.1

a) P(X1/18) = 0

b) P(X1/4) = 0.9

c) P(X5/16) = 0.9

d) P(X>1/4) = 0.1

e) P(X1/2) = 1

3-43.

x 266

0,

0.24, 266 x 271

F ( x)

1,

274 x

Where P(X=266 K) = 0.24, P(X=271 K) = 0.30, P(X=274 K) = 0.46

3-44.

3-6

0,

0.038,

0.140,

0.312,

0.516,

0.690,

F ( x)

0.814,

0.894,

0.930,

0.958,

0.980,

1

x 1

1 x 2

2 x3

3 x 4

4 x5

5 x 6

6 x7

7 x8

8 x9

9 x 10

10 x 15

15 x

Where P(X=1) = 0.038, P(X=2) = 0.102, P(X=3) = 0.172, P(X=4) = 0.204, P(X=5) = 0.174, P(X=6) = 0.124,

P(X=7) = 0.08, P(X=8) = 0.036, P(X=9) = 0.028, P(X=10) = 0.022, P(X=15) = 0.020

3-45.

0,

0.05,

0.30,

F ( x)

0.65,

0.85,

x 1.5

1.5 x 3

3 x 4.5

4.5 x 5

5 x7

7x

Where P(X=1.5) = 0.05, P(X= 3) = 0.25, P(X=4.5) = 0.35, P(X=5) = 0.20, P(X=7) = 0.15

3-46.

0,

0.005,

0.008,

F ( x) 0.053,

0.423,

0.574,

1,

x 217

217 x 218

218 x 231

231 x 255

255 x 267

267 x 317

317 x

Where P(X=255) = 0.370, P(X=218) = 0.003, P(X=317) = 0.426, P(X=231) = 0.045, P(X=267) = 0.151,

P(X=217) = 0.005

Section 3-4

3-7

3-47.

0(0.2) 1(0.2) 2(0.2) 3(0.2) 4(0.2) 2

0(0.2) 1(0.2) 4(0.2) 9(0.2) 16(0.2) 2 2 2

3- 48.

0(1 / 3) 1.5(1 / 3) 2(1 / 6) 3(1 / 6) 1.333

0(1 / 3) 2.25(1 / 3) 4(1 / 6) 9(1 / 6) 1.3332 1.139

3-49.

.

2(1 / 8) 1(2 / 8) 0(2 / 8) 1(2 / 8) 2(1 / 8) 0

4(1 / 8) 1(2 / 8) 0(2 / 8) 1(2 / 8) 4(1 / 8) 0 2 1.5

3-50.

1.571429

V ( X ) 12 f (1) 22 f (2) 32 f (3) 2

1.428571

3-51.

0(0.04) 1(0.12) 2(0.2) 3(0.28) 4(0.36) 2.8

0(0.04) 1(0.12) 4(0.2) 9(0.28) 16(0.36) 2.8 2 1.36

3-52.

x

3 1

3 1

1

E ( X ) x x

4 x 0 4

4 x 1 4

3

The result uses a formula for the sum of an infinite series. The formula can be derived from the fact that the series to

h( a ) a x

x 1

a

1 a

with respect to a.

For the variance, another formula can be derived from the second derivative of h(a) with respect to a. Calculate from

this formula

3-8

3 2 1

3 2 1

5

x

4 x 0 4

4 x 1 4

9

5 1 4

2

2

Then V ( X ) E ( X ) E ( X )

9 9 9

E( X 2 )

3-53.

0(0.033) 1(0.364) 2(0.603)

1.57

V ( X ) 02 f (0) 12 f (1) 22 f (2) 2

0(0.033) 1(0.364) 4(0.603) 1.572

0.3111

3-54.

0(8 106 ) 1(0.0012) 2(0.0576) 3(0.9412)

2.940008

V ( X ) 02 f (0) 12 f (1) 22 f (2) 32 f (3) 2

0.05876096

3-55.

6 1.2 0.2 x

4.8 0.2 x

x 24

3-56.

(a) F(0)=0.17

Nickel Charge: X

0

2

3

4

CDF

0.17

0.17+0.35=0.52

0.17+0.35+0.33=0.85

0.17+0.35+0.33+0.15=1

(b)E(X) = 0*0.17+2*0.35+3*0.33+4*0.15=2.29

4

V(X) =

f ( x )( x )

i 1

3-57.

= 1.5259

X = number of computers that vote for a left roll when a right roll is appropriate.

= E(X)=0*f(0)+1*f(1)+2*f(2)+3*f(3)+4*f(4)

3-9

= 0+0.0003999+2*5.999*10-8+3*3.9996*10-12+4*1*10-16= 0.0004

5

V(X)=

f ( x )( x )

i 1

3-58.

= 0.00039996

=E(X)=350*0.06+450*0.1+550*0.47+650*0.37=565

4

V(X)=

f ( x )( x )

i 1

=

3-59.

=6875

V (X ) =82.92

(a)

Transaction

Frequency

Selects: X

New order

43

23

Payment

44

4.2

=

Order

status

4

11.4

E(X) =

Delivery

5

130

Stock level

4

0

total

100

23*0.43+4.2*0.44+11.4*0.04+130*0.05+0*0.04 =18.694

5

V(X) =

f ( x )( x )

i 1

(b)

Transaction

New order

Payment

Order status

Delivery

Stock level

total

= 735.964

Frequency

43

44

4

5

4

100

f(X)

0.43

0.44

0.04

0.05

0.04

V ( X ) 27.1287

All operation: X

23+11+12=46

4.2+3+1+0.6=8.8

11.4+0.6=12

130+120+10=260

0+1=1

f(X)

0.43

0.44

0.04

0.05

0.04

= E(X) = 46*0.43+8.8*0.44+12*0.04+260*0.05+1*0.04=37.172

5

V(X) =

f ( x )( x )

i 1

3-60.

=2947.996

V ( X ) 54.2955

5

V(X) =

f ( x )( x )

i 1

3-61.

= 10.11

= E(X) = 1(0.038) + 2(0.102) + 3(0.172) + 4(0.204) + 5(0.174) + 6(0.124) + 7(0.08) + 8(0.036) + 9(0.028)

+ 10(0.022) +15(0.020)

= 4.808 hours

5

V(X) =

f ( x )( x )

i 1

3-62.

= 6.15

5

V(X) =

f ( x )( x )

i 1

= 1.9975

3-10

3-63.

5

V(X) =

f ( x )( x )

i 1

= 976.24

Section 3-5

3-64.

3-65.

3-66.

E(X) = (1/100) E(Y) =

1 15 19

0.17 mm

100 2

2

1 (19 15 1) 1

2

V (X )

0.0002 mm

100

12

3-67.

1 1 1 1

E ( X ) 2 3 4 5 3.5

4 4 4 4

5

2 1

2 1

2 1

2 1

2

V ( X ) 2 3 4 5 3.5 1.25

4

4

4

4

4

3-68.

09

590 0.1

590.45 mm

2

(9 0 1)2 1

V ( X ) (0.1)2

0.0825

12

E(X) =

3-69.

mm2

a = 675, b = 700

a) = E(X) = (a+b)/2= 687.5

V(X) = [(b a +1)2 1]/12= 56.25

b) a = 75, b = 100

= E(X) = (a+b)/2 = 87.5

V(X) = [(b a + 1)2 1]/12= 56.25

The range of values is the same, so the mean shifts by the difference in the two minimums (or maximums) whereas the

variance does not change.

3-70.

X is a discrete random variable because it denotes the number of fields out of 28 that are in error.

However, X is not uniform because P(X = 0) P(X = 1).

3-71.

E(Y) = 0(1/10)+5(1/10)+...+45(1/10)

= 5[0(0.1) +1(0.1)+ ... +9(0.1)]

= 5E(X)

= 5(4.5)

= 22.5

V(X) = 8.25, V(Y) = 52(8.25) = 206.25, Y = 14.36

3-72.

3-11

E (cX ) cxf ( x) c xf ( x) cE ( X ) ,

x

V (cX ) (cx c ) f ( x) c 2 ( x ) 2 f ( x) cV ( X )

2

3-73.

3-74.

Section 3-6

3-75.

A binomial distribution is based on independent trials with two outcomes and a constant probability of success on each

trial.

a) reasonable

b) independence assumption not reasonable

c) The probability that the second component fails depends on the failure time of the first component. The binomial

distribution is not reasonable.

d) not independent trials with constant probability

e) probability of a correct answer not constant

f) reasonable

g) probability of finding a defect not constant

h) if the fills are independent with a constant probability of an underfill, then the binomial distribution for

the number packages underfilled is reasonable

i) because of the bursts, each trial (that consists of sending a bit) is not independent

j) not independent trials with constant probability

3-76.

(b) P(X>10) = 1 0.9994 = 0.0006

(c) P(X=6) = 0.1091

(d) P(6 X 11) = 0.9999 0.8042 = 0.1957

3-77.

(b) P(X>8) = 0

(c) P(X=4) = 0.0112

(d) P(5X7) = 1 - 0.9984 = 0.0016

3-78.

a) P( X

10

5) 0.55 (0.5) 5 0.2461

5

10 0 10 10 1 9 10 2 8

b) P( X 2)

0 0.5 0.5 1 0.5 0.5 2 0.5 0.5

10

10

10

0.5 10(0.5) 45(0.5) 0.0547

10 9

10 10

1

0

c) P( X 9)

9 0.5 (0.5) 10 0.5 (0.5) 0.0107

d)

10

10

P(3 X 5) 0.530.57 0.540.56

3

4

120(0.5)10 210(0.5)10 0.3223

3-12

3-79.

10

5

5) 0.015 0.99 2.40 108

5

10

10

10

10

9

8

b) P( X 2) 0.010 0.99 0.011 0.99 0.012 0.99

0

1

2

0.9999

a) P( X

10

10

1

0

c) P( X 9) 0.019 0.99 0.0110 0.99 9.91 10 18

9

10

10

10

7

d ) P(3 X 5) 0.013 0.99 0.014 (0.99) 6 1.138 10 4

3

4

3-80.

0.25

0.20

f(x)

0.15

0.10

0.05

0.00

0

10

b) Values x= 0 and x=10 are the least likely, the extreme values

np 10(0.5) 5

3-81.

0.9

0.8

0.7

prob of x

0.6

0.5

0.4

0.3

0.2

0.1

0.0

0

10

P(X = 0) = 0.904, P(X = 1) = 0.091, P(X = 2) = 0.004, P(X = 3) = 0. P(X = 4) = 0 and so forth.

Distribution is skewed with E ( X ) np 10(0.01) 0.1

a) The most-likely value of X is 0.

3-13

3-82.

3

x0

0

0.125 0 x 1

F ( x) 0.5 1 x 2

0.875 2 x 3

1

3 x

3-83.

where

1

1

f ( 0)

8

2

2

3

1 1

f (1) 3

8

2 2

2

1 3 3

f (2) 3

4 4 8

3

1

1

f (3)

8

4

3

x0

0

0.4219 0 x 1

F ( x) 0.8438 1 x 2

0.9844 2 x 3

1

3 x

3-84.

Then, X has a binomial distribution with n = 40 a p = 0.01.

P(X = 0) =

3-85.

where

27

3

f ( 0)

64

4

2

27

1 3

f (1) 3

64

4 4

2

1 3 9

f (2) 3

4 4 64

3

1

1

f (3)

64

4

0.01 0.99

40

0

40

0.6690 .

Then, X has a binomial distribution with n = 10 and p = 0.4

10

a) P( X 3) 0.43 (0.6)7 0.215

3

b) Let Z denote the number of time the line is NOT occupied.

Then Z has a binomial distribution with n =10 and p = 0.6.

P(Z 1) 1 P(Z 0) 1

c) E ( X ) 10(0.4) 4

3-86.

0.6 0.4

10

0

10

0.9999

Then, X is binomial with n = 25 and p = 0.25.

3-14

25

25

25

5

4

3

a) P( X 20) 0.2520 0.75 0.25210.75 0.2522 0.75

20

21

22

25

25

25

2

1

0

0.2523 0.75 0.2524 0.75 0.2525 0.75 9.677 1010

23

24

25

25

25

25

25

24

23

b) P( X 5) 0.250 0.75 0.251 0.75 0.252 0.75

0

1

2

25

25

22

21

0.253 0.75 0.254 0.75 0.2137

3

4

3-87.

b)

P( X 4) 0.2 0.8 0.218

c)

P( X 4) 1 P( X 4) 1 0.630 0.370

a)

3-88.

P( X 1)

5

1

20

4

16

X has a binomial distribution with p=0.01, n=15

(a) P(X=0) =

15 0

p (1 p)15 = 0.86

0

(c) P(X>7)=P(X=8)+P(X=9)++P(X=15)= 0

3-89.

P(X1) = 1-P(X=0) = 1

(b)P(X3) = 1- P(X<3)= 0.999997

(c) =E(X)= np=20*0.6122=12.244

V(X)=np(1-p) = 4.748

=

3-90.

V (X ) =2.179

n=20, p=0.13

(a) P(X = 3) =

20 3

p (1 p)17 =0.235

3

(c) = E(X) = np = 20*0.13 = 2.6

V(X) = np(1-p) = 2.262

=

3-91.

V (X ) = 1.504

3-15

(b) P(X=0) =

1E 09 0

p (1 p)1E 09 = 0

0

V(X) = np(1-p) = 4593.9

3-92.

V(X) = 20 (0.01) (0.99) = 0.198

X 3 X 0.2 3 0198

.

153

.

a ) X is binomial with n = 20 and p = 0.01

P( X 1.53) P( X 2) 1 P( X 1)

1

20

0

20

20

1

19

P( X 1) 1 P( X 1)

1

0.04 0.96

20

0

20

20

1

19

c) Let Y denote the number of times X exceeds 1 in the next five samples.

Then, Y is binomial with n = 5 and p = 0.190 from part b.

P(Y 1) 1 P(Y 0) 1

5

0

The probability is 0.651 that at least one sample from the next five will contain more than one defective

3-93.

Let X denote the passengers with tickets that do not show up for the flight.

Then, X is binomial with n = 125 and p = 0.1.

a) P( X 5) 1 P( X 4)

125 0

125 1

125 2

125

124

123

0.1 0.9

0.1 0.9

0.1 0.9

0

1

2

1

125

125 4

122

121

0.13 0.9

0.1 0.9

3

4

0.9961

b) P( X 5) 1 P( X 5) 0.9886

3-94.

b)

0.02 0.98

P( X 2) 0.02 0.98

c)

P( X 5) 0.981

a)

3-95.

P( X 0)

100

0

100

0.133

102

0

102

0.02 0.98

102

1

101

0.02 0.98

102

2

.

a) Let N denote the number of people (out of five) that wait less than or equal to 4 hours.

b) Let N denote the number of people (out of five) that wait more than 4 hours.

c) Let N denote the number of people (out of five) that wait more than 4 hours.

3-16

100

0.666

3-96.

a)

b)

c)

3-97.

a)

b)

c)

d) E

3-98.

a)

b)

c)

d)

Section 3-7

3

4

b) P( X 4) (1 0.5) 0.5 0.5 0.0625

7

8

c) P( X 8) (1 0.5) 0.5 0.5 0.0039

0

1

d) P( X 2) P( X 1) P( X 2) (1 0.5) 0.5 (1 0.5) 0.5

0.5 0.52 0.75

e) P( X 2) 1 P( X 2) 1 0.75 0.25

3-99.

a)

3-100.

3

b) P( X 4) (1 0.4) 0.4 0.0864

4

c) P( X 5) (1 0.5) 0.5 0.05184

d) P( X 3) P( X 1) P( X 2) P( X 3)

a)

e) P( X 3) 1 P( X 3) 1 0.7840 0.2160

3-17

3-101.

a) E(X) = 1/0.2 = 5

b) Because of the lack of memory property, the expected value is still 5.

3-102.

a) E(X) = 4/0.2 = 20

19

(0.80)16 0.24 0.0436

3

18

15

4

c) P(X=19) =

3 (0.80) 0.2 0.0459

b) P(X=20) =

d) P(X=21) =

20

(0.80)17 0.24 0.0411

3

e) The most likely value for X should be near X. By trying several cases, the most likely value is x = 19.

3-103.

Let X denote the number of trials to obtain the first successful alignment.

Then X is a geometric random variable with p = 0.8

a)

b)

c)

3-104.

Then X is a negative binomial random variable with r=2 and p = 0.1

a) P( X 4) 1 P( X 4) 1 [ P( X 2) P( X

b)

3-105.

P( X 4) P( X 1) P( X 2) P( X 3) P( X 4)

(1 0.8) 0 0.8 (1 0.8)1 0.8 (1 0.8) 2 0.8 (1 0.8) 3 0.8

0.8 0.2(0.8) 0.2 2 (0.8) 0.23 0.8 0.9984

P( X 4) 1 P( X 3) 1 [ P( X 1) P( X 2) P( X 3)]

1 [(1 0.8) 0 0.8 (1 0.8)1 0.8 (1 0.8) 2 0.8]

1 [0.8 0.2(0.8) 0.2 2 (0.8)] 1 0.992 0.008

3)]

2

1 (1 0.1) 0 0.12 (1 0.1)1 0.12 1 (0.01 0.018) 0.972

1

1

E( X ) r / p 2 / 0.1 20

Then, X is a geometric random variable with p = 0.02.

a)

b)

P( X 5) 1 P( X 4) 1 [ P( X 1) P( X 2) P( X 3) P( X 4) P( X 5)]

1 [0.02 0.98(0.02) 0.982 (0.02) 0.983 (0.02) 0.983 (0.02) 0.984 (0.02)]

1 0.0961 0.9039

May also use the fact that P(X > 5) is the probability of no connections in 5 trials. That is,

5

P( X 5) 0.020 0.985 0.9039

0

c) E(X) = 1/0.02 = 50

3-106.

p=0.8, the probability of the opponent defeating the player.

(b) P(X>2) = 1 P(X=1) P(X=2) = 0.64

(c) = E(X) = 1/p = 5

3-18

(e) The probability that a player contests four or more opponents is obtained in part (d), which is p o = 0.512.

Let Y represent the number of game plays until a player contests four or more opponents.

Then, f(y) = (1-po)y-1po.

Y = E(Y) = 1/po = 1.95

3-107.

p=0.13

(b) P(X=3)=(1-0.13)3-1*0.13 =0.098

(c) =E(X)= 1/p=7.698

3-108.

(a) p=9900/366=0.0000045

=E(X) = 1/p= 219877

V(X)= (1-p)/p2 = 4.938*1010

=

V (X ) =222222

(b) p=100/363=0.00214

=E(X) = 1/p= 467

V(X)= (1-p)/p2 = 217892.39

=

V (X ) =466.78

Based on the answers to (a) and (b) above, it is clearly more secure to use a 6 character password.

3-109.

p = 0.005 , r = 8

a.)

b).

P( X 8) 0.0058 3.91x10 19

1

E( X )

200 days

0.005

c) Mean number of days until all 8 computers fail. Now we use p=3.91x10-19

E (Y )

1

2.56 x1018 days

3.91x10 91

3-110.

Then Y has a geometric distribution with p = 0.0169.

a) P(Y = 10) = (1 0.0169)9(0.0169) = 0.0145

b) Y is a geometric random variable with p = 0.1897 from Exercise 3-66.

P(Y = 10) = (1 0.1897)9(0.1897) = 0.0286

c) E(Y) = 1/0.1897 = 5.27

3-111.

Let X denote the number of transactions until all computers have failed.

Then, X is negative binomial random variable with p = 10-8 and r = 3.

a) E(X) = 3 x 108

b) V(X) = [3(110-80]/(10-16) = 3.0 x 1016

3-112.

3-113.

(b) 0.6*p2=0.4, p=0.816

x 1

(1 p) x r p r .

r 1

When r = 1, this reduces to f(x) = (1p)x-1p, which is the pdf of a geometric random variable.

Also, E(X) = r/p and V(X) = [r(1p)]/p2 reduce to E(X) = 1/p and V(X) = (1p)/p2, respectively.

3-114.

a)

3-19

b)

c)

d)

3-115.

days

b)

c) Lack of memory property implies the answer equals

d)

3-116.

a)

b)

c)

d)

Section 3-8

3-117.

20(82160) 0.4191

a) P( X 1)

3921225

20 80

1

3

100

4

b)

4845(1) 0.001236

c) P( X 4)

3921225

20 80

4

0

100

4

K

20

4

0.8

N

100

N n

96

V ( X ) np(1 p)

4(0.2)(0.8) 0.6206

N 1

99

d) E ( X )

3-118.

np n

(4 16 15 14) / 6 0.4623

(20 19 18 17) / 24

1

b) P( X 4)

0.00021

(20 19 18 17) / 24

a)

P( X 1)

4

1

16

3

20

4

4 16

4 0

20

4

c)

3-20

P( X 2) P( X 0) P( X 1) P( X 2)

4

0

16

4

20

4

4

1

16

3

20

4

4

2

16

2

20

4

24

6

2

20191817

24

0.9866

V(X) = 4(0.2)(0.8)(16/19) = 0.539

3-119.

0.5

0.4

P(x)

0.3

0.2

0.1

0.0

0

24 12

/

x 3 x

36

3

V(X)= np(1-p)(N-n)/(N-1) =2*(1-24/36)(36-3)/(36-1)=0.629

(c) P(X2) =1-P(X=3) =0.717

3-121.

Let X denote the number of men who carry the marker on the male chromosome for an increased risk for high blood

pressure. N=800, K=240 n=10

a) n=10

P( X 1)

0.1201

240 560

1

9

800

10

240!

560!

1!239! 9!551!

800!

10!790!

b) n=10

P( X 1) 1 P( X 1) 1 [ P( X 0) P( X 1)]

P( X 0)

240 560

0

10

800

10

240!

560!

0!240! 10!550!

800!

10!790!

0.0276

3-122.

Let X denote the number of cards in the sample that are defective.

a)

3-21

P( X 1) 1 P( X 0)

P( X 0)

20 120

0

20

140

20

120!

20!100!

140!

20!120!

0.0356

P( X 1) 1 0.0356 0.9644

b)

P( X 1) 1 P( X 0)

P( X 0)

5

0

135

20

140

20

135!

20!115!

140!

20!120!

135!120!

0.4571

115!140!

P( X 1) 1 0.4571 0.5429

3-123.

N=300

(a) K = 243, n = 3, P(X = 1)=0.087

(b) P(X1) = 0.9934

(c) K = 26 + 13 = 39, P(X = 1)=0.297

(d) K = 300-18 = 282

P(X 1) = 0.9998

3-124.

Let X denote the count of the numbers in the state's sample that match those in the player's sample.

Then, X has a hypergeometric distribution with N = 40, n = 6, and K = 6.

40! 2.6110

6!34!

6 34 5.31 10

b) P( X 5)

0.00219

c) P( X 4)

a)

6

6

P( X 6)

6

5

6

4

34

0

40

6

34

1

40

6

34

2

40

6

40

6

d) Let Y denote the number of weeks needed to match all six numbers.

Then, Y has a geometric distribution with p =

1

3,838,380

and

3-125.

Let X denote the number of blades in the sample that are dull.

a)

P( X 1) 1 P( X 0)

P( X 0)

10

0

38

5

48

5

38!

5!33!

48!

5!43!

38!43!

0.2931

48!33!

P( X 1) 1 P( X 0) 0.7069

b) Let Y denote the number of days needed to replace the assembly.

P(Y = 3) =

P( X 0)

2

0

46

5

48

5

46!

5!41!

48!

5!43!

46!43!

0.8005

48!41!

3-22

On the second day, P( X 0)

6

0

42

5

48

5

42!

5!37!

48!

5!43!

42!43!

0.4968

48!37!

P(Y = 3) = 0.8005(0.4968)(1-0.2931) = 0.2811.

3-126.

For Exercise 3-98, the finite population correction is 16/19.

Because the finite population correction for Exercise 3-97 is closer to one, the binomial approximation to the

distribution of X should be better in Exercise 3-97.

b) Assuming X has a binomial distribution with n = 4 and p = 0.2,

P( X 4) 0.2 0.8 0.0016

P( X 1)

4

1

4

4

The results from the binomial approximation are close to the probabilities obtained in Exercise 3-97.

c) Assume X has a binomial distribution with n = 4 and p = 0.2. Consequently, P(X = 1) and P(X = 4) are the same as

computed in part b. of this exercise. This binomial approximation is not as close to the true answer as the results

obtained in part (b) of this exercise.

d) From Exercise 3-102, X is approximately binomial with n = 20 and p = 20/140 = 1/7.

P( X 1) 1 P( X 0) 020 17

0 6 20

7

1 0.0458 0.9542

From Exercise 3-92, X is approximately binomial with n = 20 and p = 5/140 =1/28

1

P( X 1) 1 P( X 0) 020 28

0 27 20

28

1 0.4832 0.5168

3-127.

a)

b)

c)

3-23

3-128.

a)

b)

c)

Section 3-9

3-129.

e 4 4 0

e 4 0.0183

0!

b) P( X 2) P( X 0) P( X 1) P( X 2)

a) P( X 0)

e 4 41 e 4 42

1!

2!

0.2381

e 4

e 4 4 4

01954

.

4!

e 4 48

0.0298

d) P( X 8)

8!

c) P( X 4)

3-130

a) P( X 0) e 0.4 0.6703

0.9921

1!

2!

e 0.4 (0.4) 4

0.000715

c) P( X 4)

4!

e 0.4 (0.4) 8

109

. 108

d) P( X 8)

8!

b) P( X 2) e 0.4

3-131.

Consequently, E(X) = V(X) = 2.996.

3-132.

a) Let X denote the number of calls in one hour. Then, X is a Poisson random variable with = 10.

e 10 105

0.0378 .

5!

e 10 10

e 10 102 e 10 103

0.0103

b) P( X 3) e 10

1!

2!

3!

c) Let Y denote the number of calls in two hours. Then, Y is a Poisson random variable with

e 20 2015

0.0516

= 20. P(Y 15)

15!

d) Let W denote the number of calls in 30 minutes. Then W is a Poisson random variable with

e 5 55

01755

.

= 5. P(W 5)

5!

- x

3-133. =1, Poisson distribution. f(x) =e /x!

P( X 5)

Therefore 3*16=48 cubic light years of space must be studied.

3-134.

(b) =14.4/5=2.88, P(X=0)=0.056

(c) =14.4*7*28.35/225=12.7

3-24

P(X1)=0.999997

(d) P(X28.8) =1-P(X 28) = 0.00046. Unusual.

3-135.

3-136.

(b) =0.61*5=3.05, P(X=0)= 0.047.

a) Let X denote the number of flaws in one square meter of cloth. Then, X is a Poisson random variable

with = 0.1.

P( X 2)

e0.1 (0.1) 2

0.0045

2!

b) Let Y denote the number of flaws in 10 square meters of cloth. Then, Y is a Poisson random variable

with = 1.

P(Y 1)

e111

e1 0.3679

1!

c) Let W denote the number of flaws in 20 square meters of cloth. Then, W is a Poisson random variable

P(W 0) e2 0.1353

P(Y 2) 1 P(Y 1) 1 P(Y 0) P(Y 1)

with = 2.

d)

1 e 1 e 1

0.2642

3-137.

a)

b) P( X

2) e 0.2

e 0.2 0.2

e 0.2 (0.2) 2

0.9989

1!

2!

3-138.

Then, X is a Poisson random variable with = 10.

b) Let Y denote the number of cracks in a half mile of highway.

Then, Y is a Poisson random variable with = 1.

c) The assumptions of a Poisson process require that the probability of a event is constant for all intervals. If the

probability of a count depends on traffic load and the load varies, then the assumptions of a Poisson process are not

valid. Separate Poisson random variables might be appropriate for the heavy and light load sections of the highway.

3-139.

Then, X is a Poisson random variable with = 0.5.

P( X 0) e0.5 0.6065

b) Let Y denote the number of cars with no flaws,

10

P(Y 10) (0.6065)10 (0.3935) 0 0.0067

10

c) Let W denote the number of cars with surface flaws. Because the number of flaws has a Poisson distribution, the

occurrences of surface flaws in cars are independent events with constant probability. From part (a), the probability a

car contains surface flaws is 10.6065 = 0.3935. Consequently, W is binomial with n = 10 and p = 0.3935.

3-25

10

P(W 0) (0.3935) 0 (0.6065)10 0.0067

0

10

P(W 1) (0.3935)1 (0.6065)9 0.0437

1

P(W 1) 0.0067 0.0437 0.0504

3-140.

a) Let X denote the failures in 8 hours. Then, X has a Poisson distribution with = 0.16.

P( X 0) e0.16 0.8521

b) Let Y denote the number of failure in 24 hours. Then, Y has a Poisson distribution with = 0.48.

3-141.

a)

b)

c)

3-142.

a)

b)

Supplemental Exercises

3-143.

E( X )

1 1 1 1 3 1 1

,

8 3 4 3 8 3 4

2

3-144.

1 1 1 1 3 1 1

V ( X ) 0.0104

8 3 4 3 8 3 4

1000

1

999

a) P( X 1)

1 0.001 (0.999) 0.3681

1000

0.0010 0.999999 0.6319

b) P( X 1) 1 P( X 0) 1

0

1000

1000

1000

0.0010 0.9991000

0.0011 0.999999

0.0012 0.999998

c) P( X 2)

0

1

2

0.9198

d) E ( X ) 1000(0.001) 1

V ( X ) 1000(0.001)(0.999) 0.999

3-145.

3-26

50

50

50

50

49

48

2) 0.10 0.9 0.11 0.9 0.12 0.9 0.112

0

1

2

50 49

50 50

1

0

48

c) P( X 49)

49 0.1 0.9 50 0.1 0.9 4.51 10

b) P( X

3-146.

12 0

12

p (1 p)12 - p 1 (1 p)14 =0.0062

0

1

(b) P(X>1)=1-P(X1)= 1-

V(X)=np(1-p) = 0.1188

3-147.

3-148.

V (X ) = 0.3447

(b)

(0.5)12 0.000244

C126 (0.5)6 (0.5)6 = 0.2256

(c)

(a)

(c) P(X2)= 0.264

(d) =E(X)= np=100*0.01=1

V(X)=np(1-p) = 0.99

=

V (X ) =0.995

Y = number of messages that require two or more packets be resent.

Y is binomial distributed with n=10, pm=pd*(1/10) = 0.0264

P(Y1) = 0.235

3-149.

Then X is a geometric random variable with p = 0.20.

a) P(X = 4) = (1-0.2)30.2= 0.1024

b) By independence, (0.8)10 = 0.1074. (Also, P(X > 10) = 0.1074)

3-150.

Let X denote the number of attempts needed to obtain a calibration that conforms to specifications.

Then, X is geometric with p = 0.6.

P(X 3) = P(X=1) + P(X=2) + P(X=3) = 0.6 + 0.4(0.6) + 0.4 2(0.6) = 0.936.

3-151.

Let X denote the number of fills needed to detect three underweight packages.

Then, X is a negative binomial random variable with p = 0.001 and r = 3.

a) E(X) = 3/0.001 = 3000

b) V(X) = [3(0.999)/0.0012] = 2997000. Therefore, X = 1731.18

3-152.

(a) f(x)=(1-p)x-1p=0.9(x-1)0.1

(b) P(X=5) = 0.94*0.1=0.0656

(c) =E(X)= 1/p=10

(d) P(X10)=0.651

3-153.

(a) =6*0.5=3.

3-27

P(X=0) = 0.0498

(b) P(X3)=0.5768

(c) P(Xx) 0.9, x=5

(d) 2= =6. Not appropriate.

3-154.

Let X denote the number of totes in the sample that do not conform to purity requirements. Then, X has a

hypergeometric distribution with N = 15, n = 3, and K = 2.

2 13

0 3

13!12!

P( X 1) 1 P( X 0) 1 1

0.3714

15

10!15!

3

3-155.

Let X denote the number of calls that are answered in 30 seconds or less.

Then, X is a binomial random variable with p = 0.75.

a) P(X = 9) =

10

(0.75)9 (0.25)1 0.1877

9

20

20

20

(0.75) 16 (0.25) 4 (0.75) 17 (0.25) 3 (0.75) 18 (0.25) 2

16

17

18

20

20

(0.75) 19 (0.25) 1 (0.75) 20 (0.25) 0 0.4148

19

20

c) E(X) = 20(0.75) = 15

3-156.

Let Y denote the number of calls needed to obtain an answer in less than 30 seconds.

a) P(Y 4) (1 0.75)

b) E(Y) = 1/p = 1/0.75 = 4/3

3-157.

3-158.

Let W denote the number of calls needed to obtain two answers in less than 30 seconds.

Then, W has a negative binomial distribution with p = 0.75.

5

a) P(W=6) = (0.25)4 (0.75)2 0.0110

1

b) E(W) = r/p = 2/0.75 = 8/3

a) Let X denote the number of messages sent in one hour.

P( X 5)

e 5 55

0.1755

5!

Then, Y is a Poisson random variable with =7.5.

e 7.5 (7.5)10

P(Y 10)

0.0858

10!

c) Let W denote the number of messages sent in one-half hour.

Then, W is a Poisson random variable with = 2.5.

3-159.

E( X ) r / p 4 / 0.0001 40000 requests

3-160.

3-28

P(Y 3) e 1

0.9810

1!

2!

3!

3-161.

Let X denote the number of individuals that recover in one week. Assume the individuals are independent.

Then, X is a binomial random variable with n = 20 and p = 0.1.

P(X 4) = 1 P(X 3) = 1 0.8670 = 0.1330.

3-162.

a.) P(X=1) = 0 , P(X=2) = 0.0025, P(X=3) = 0.01, P(X=4) = 0.03, P(X=5) = 0.065

P(X=6) = 0.13, P(X=7) = 0.18, P(X=8) = 0.2225, P(X=9) = 0.2, P(X=10) = 0.16

b.) P(X=1) = 0.0025, P(X=1.5) = 0.01, P(X=2) = 0.03, P(X=2.5) = 0.065, P(X=3) = 0.13

P(X=3.5) = 0.18, P(X=4) = 0.2225, P(X=4.5) = 0.2, P(X=5) = 0.16

3-163.

Then, X is a negative binomial random variable with p = 0.01 and r=5.

a) E(X) = r/p = 500.

b) V(X) =(5* 0.99)/0.012 = 49500 and X = 222.49

3-164.

Here n assemblies are checked. Let X denote the number of defective assemblies.

If P(X 1) 0.95, then P(X=0) 0.05. Now,

n

(0.01) 0 (0.99) n 99 n

0

n(ln(0.99)) ln(0.05)

ln(0.05)

n

298.07

ln(0.95)

P(X=0) =

3-165.

3-166.

Let X denote the number of products that fail during the warranty period. Assume the units are

independent. Then, X is a binomial random variable with n = 500 and p = 0.02.

a) P(X = 0) =

500

0

b) E(X) = 500(0.02) = 10

c) P(X >2) = 1 P(X 2) = 0.9995

3-167.

3-168.

f X (1) (0.1)(0.7) (0.4)(0.3) 0.19

f X (2) (0.2)(0.7) (0.2)(0.3) 0.20

f X (3) (0.4)(0.7) (0.1)(0.3) 0.31

f X (4) (0.2)(0.7) (0)(0.3) 0.14

a) P(X 3) = 0.2 + 0.4 = 0.6

b) P(X > 2.5) = 0.4 + 0.3 + 0.1 = 0.8

c) P(2.7 < X < 5.1) = 0.4 + 0.3 = 0.7

d) E(X) = 2(0.2) + 3(0.4) + 5(0.3) + 8(0.1) = 3.9

e) V(X) = 22(0.2) + 32(0.4) + 52(0.3) + 82(0.1) (3.9)2 = 3.09

3-169.

x

f(x)

2

0.2

5.7

0.3

3-29

6.5

0.3

8.5

0.2

3-170.

Let X and Y denote the number of bolts in the sample from supplier 1 and 2, respectively.

Then, X is a hypergeometric random variable with N = 100, n = 4, and K = 30.

Also, Y is a hypergeometric random variable with N = 100, n = 4, and K = 70.

a) P(X=4 or Y=4) = P(X = 4) + P(Y = 4)

30 70 30 70

4 0

0 4

100

100

4

4

0.2408

30 70 30 70

3 1

1 3

0.4913

100

3-171.

Let X denote the number of errors in a sector. Then, X is a Poisson random variable with = 0.32768.

a) P(X>1) = 1 P(X1) = 1 e-0.32768 e-0.32768(0.32768) = 0.0433

b) Let Y denote the number of sectors until an error is found.

Then, Y is a geometric random variable and P = P(X 1) = 1 P(X=0) = 1 e-0.32768 = 0.2794

E(Y) = 1/p = 3.58

3-172.

Let X denote the number of orders placed in a week in a city of 800,000 people.

Then X is a Poisson random variable with = 0.25(8) = 2.

a) P(X 3) = 1 P(X 2) = 1 [e-2 + e-2(2) + (e-222)/2!] = 1 0.6767 = 0.3233.

b) Let Y denote the number of orders in 2 weeks. Then, Y is a Poisson random variable with = 4, and

P(Y>2) =1- P(Y 2) = e-4 + (e-441)/1!+ (e-442)/2! =1 - [0.01832+0.07326+0.1465] = 0.7619.

3-173.

125 375

0

5

f X (0)

2.5524 E11

500

5

125 375

1

4

f X (1)

2.5525 E11

500

5

125 375

2

3

7750(8718875) 0.2647

f X (2)

2.5524 E11

500

3-30

125 375

3 2 317750(70125)

f X (3)

0.0873

2.5524 E11

500

5

125 375

4 1 9691375(375)

f X (4)

0.01424

2.5524 E11

500

5

125 375

5 0 2.3453E8

f X (5)

0.00092

2.5524 E11

500

5

b)

x

f(x)

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

0.0546 0.1866 0.2837 0.2528 0.1463 0.0574 0.0155 0.0028 0.0003 0.0000 0.0000

3-174.

Let X denote the number of totes in the sample that exceed the moisture content.

Then X is a binomial random variable with n = 30. We are to determine p.

If P(X 1) = 0.9, then P(X = 0) = 0.1. Then

30 0

( p) (1 p)30 0.1 , giving 30ln(1p) = ln(0.1),

0

3-175.

Let t denote an interval of time in hours and let X denote the number of messages that arrive in time t.

Then, X is a Poisson random variable with = 10t.

Then, P(X=0) = 0.9 and e-10t = 0.9, resulting in t = 0.0105 hours = 37.8 seconds

Then, X is a Poisson random variable with = 50(0.02) = 1.

P(X = 0) = e-1 = 0.3679.

b) Let Y denote the number of flaws in one panel.

P(Y 1) = 1 P(Y=0) = 1 e-0.02 = 0.0198.

Let W denote the number of panels that need to be inspected before a flaw is found.

Then W is a geometric random variable with p = 0.0198.

E(W) = 1/0.0198 = 50.51 panels.

c)

Let V denote the number of panels with 1 or more flaws.

Then V is a binomial random variable with n = 50 and p = 0.0198

50

50

P(V 2) 0.0198 0 (.9802) 50 0.01981 (0.9802) 49

0

1

50

0.0198 2 (0.9802) 48 0.9234

2

3-31

3-177.

P(X = x) =

n!

px(1-p)n-x

r!n r !

The probability of the event can be expressed as p = /n and the probability mass function can be written as:

n!

[/n]x[1 (/n)]n-x

x!n x !

n (n 1) (n 2) (n 3)...... (n x 1) x

P(X=x)

(1 (/n))n-x

x

x!

n

P(X=x) =

[1 (/n)]n-x = [1 (/n)]n[1 (/n)]-x

In the limit as n

n (n 1) (n 2) (n 3)...... (n x 1)

n

Also, we know that as n :

1 - n n e

Thus,

x

P(X=x) =

e

x!

The distribution of the probability associated with this process is known as the Poisson distribution and we

can express the probability mass function as:

e x

f(x) =

x!

3-178.

Show that

i 1

To begin,

(1 p)

i 1

i 1

i 1

p

p

p (1 p)i 1

1

1 (1 p) p

i 1

3-179.

3-32

a 1

b

i

i 1

i 1

(b a 1)

(b a b a )

b(b 1) (a 1)a

2

2

(b a 1)

(b a 1)

(b a)(b a 1)

(b a 1)

(b a )

2

b

b 2

(b a 1)(b a ) 2

i i (b a) i

4

i a

i a

i a

V (X )

b a 1

b a 1

2

b(b 1)(2b 1) (a 1)a (2a 1)

b(b 1) (a 1)a (b a 1)(b a )

(b a )

6

6

2

4

b a 1

2

(b a 1) 1

12

b

3-180.

b a 2

2

x 1

x 1

d x

q

x 1 dq

E ( X ) x(1 p ) x 1 p p xq x 1 p

p

d x

d q

q p

dq x 1

dq 1 q

1

p 2

p

1(1 q) q (1)

p

(1 q ) 2

1

p

3-33

V ( X ) ( x 1p ) 2 (1 p) x 1 p px 2 2 x

x 1

x 1

p x 2 q x 1 2 xq x 1

x 1

x 1

p x 2 q x 1

x 1

2

p2

1

p

1

p

(1 p)

x 1

x 1

x 1

1

p2

p x 2 q x 1

x 1

1

p2

p dqd q 2q 2 3q 3 ...

1

p2

p dqd q (1 2q 3q 2 ...)

1

p2

2(1 p) p 1 (1 p) q

p2

p2

p2

1

p2

3-181.

Let X = number of passengers with a reserved seat who arrive for the flight,

n = number of seat reservations, p = probability that a ticketed passenger arrives for the flight.

a) In this part we determine n such that P(X 120) 0.9. By testing for n in Minitab the minimum value is n =131.

b) In this part we determine n such that P(X > 120) 0.10 which is equivalent to

1 P(X 120) 0.10 or 0.90 P(X 120).

By testing for n in Minitab the solution is n = 123.

c) One possible answer follows. If the airline is most concerned with losing customers due to over-booking, they

should only sell 123 tickets for this flight. The probability of over-booking is then at most 10%. If the airline is most

concerned with having a full flight, they should sell 131 tickets for this flight. The chance the flight is full is then at

least 90%. These calculations assume customers arrive independently and groups of people that arrive (or do not arrive)

together for travel make the analysis more complicated.

3-182.

Then, X is approximately binomial with p = 0.01 and n is to be determined.

If P( X 1) 0.90 , then P( X 0) 0.10 .

Now, P(X = 0) =

n

3-183.

p (1 p)

n

0

ln 0.10

229.11 . Therefore, n = 230 is required

ln(1 p)

If the lot size is small, 10% of the lot might be insufficient to detect nonconforming product. For example, if the lot size

is 10, then a sample of size one has a probability of only 0.2 of detecting a nonconforming product in a lot that is 20%

nonconforming.

If the lot size is large, 10% of the lot might be a larger sample size than is practical or necessary. For example, if the

lot size is 5000, then a sample of 500 is required. Furthermore, the binomial approximation to the hypergeometric

distribution can be used to show the following. If 5% of the lot of size 5000 is nonconforming, then the probability of

12

zero nonconforming products in the sample is approximately 7 10 . Using a sample of 100, the same probability

is still only 0.0059. The sample of size 500 might be much larger than is needed.

3-34

3-184.

Let X denote the number of acceptable components. Then, X has a binomial distribution with p = 0.98 and

n is to be determined such that P( X 100) 0.95 .

n

P( X 100)

102

0.666

103

0.848

104

0.942

105

0.981

Therefore, 105 components are needed.

Revenue at each demand

1000

2000

3000

0.3x

0.3x

0.3x

0 x 1000

mean profit = 0.05x(0.3) + 0.3x(0.7) - 0.1x

0.05x

0.3(1000) +

0.3x

0.3x

1000 x 2000

0.05(x-1000)

mean profit = 0.05x(0.3) + [0.3(1000) + 0.05(x-1000)](0.2) + 0.3x(0.5) - 0.1x

0.05x

0.3(1000) +

0.3(2000) +

0.3x

2000 x 3000

0.05(x-1000)

0.05(x-2000)

mean profit = 0.05x(0.3) + [0.3(1000)+0.05(x-1000)](0.2) + [0.3(2000) + 0.05(x-2000)](0.3) + 0.3x(0.2) - 0.1x

0.05x

0.3(1000) +

0.3(2000) +

0.3(3000)+

3000 x

0.05(x-1000)

0.05(x-2000)

0.05(x-3000)

mean profit = 0.05x(0.3) + [0.3(1000)+0.05(x-1000)](0.2) + [0.3(2000)+0.05(x-2000)]0.3 + [0.3(3000)+0.05(x3000)]0.2 - 0.1x

0

0.05x

0 x 1000

1000 x 2000

2000 x 3000

3000 x

Profit

0.125 x

0.075 x + 50

200

-0.05 x + 350

The bakery can make anywhere from 2000 to 3000 and earn the same profit.

3-35

Max. profit

$ 125 at x = 1000

$ 200 at x = 2000

$200 at x = 3000

$200 at x = 3000

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