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SUMMARY PEMODELAN CURAH HUJAN DENGAN PENDEKATAN ADAPTIVE SPLINE THRESHOLD AUTOREGRESSIVE (ASTAR)
MODELING RAINFALL BY ADAPTIVE SPLINE THRESHOLD AUTOREGRESSIVE (ASTAR) Created by Istriana Subject Subject Alt Keyword : : Pemodelan : Time-series analysis : curah hujan ; non-linear ; Adaptive Splines Threshold Autoregression ; zona

Description :
Pembentukan model dengan pendekatan Adaptive Splines Threshold Autoregressive (ASTAR) melalui proses bertatar (stepwise) berdasarkan recursive partitioning. ASTAR merupakan analisis deret waktu non-linier yang berdasarkan algoritma Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS). Metode ini tidak ketat terhadap asumsiasumsi seperti halnya metode ARIMA Box-Jenkins. Selain itu, model ARIMA merupakan model yang berpola linear. Sedangkan curah hujan memiliki pola yang non-linear berdasarkan uji Ramsey Reset yang dilakukan. Pemodelan ASTAR menggunakan kriteria GCV untuk pembentukan model. Model terbaik dipilih berdasarkan nilai RMSE out sample terkecil. Sedangkan model ARIMA dipilih berdasarkan AIC, SBC, MSE, dan MAE terkecil dari dugaan model sementara. Pemodelan dengan pendekatan ASTAR menghasilkan tingkat peramalan yang lebih baik jika dibandingkan dengan model ARIMA. Terutama untuk zona yang tidak terlalu banyak mengandung curah hujan yang tinggi (zona 3, zona 4). Nilai RMSE model ASTAR zona 3, zona 4, zona 5 dan zona 7 sebesar 36.40; 43.39; 66.92 dan 75.66. Hasil ramalan curah hujan zona 3 memiliki nilai SSE paling kecil jika dibandingkan ketiga zona lainnya. Nilai SSE terkecil untuk semua zona terjadi pada saat lama ramalan tiga bulan ke depan. Sehingga dalam melakukan peramalan data harus selalu di up date selama tiga bulan sekali.

Description Alt:
NonModel building using ASTAR approach and stepwise process based on recursive partitioning. ASTAR is nonlinear time series analysis based on MARS algorithm. This method is not as strict as ARIMA BoxJenkins, especially to the assumptions. ARIMA model is a linear model. Rainfall data have a nonlinear pattern based on Ramsey Reset test. ASTAR modeling uses GCV criterion for model building. The best model is selected based on the minimal out-sample RMSE. The best ARIMA model is selected based on the minimal AIC, SBC, MSE, and MAE from the predicted models. ASTAR modeling yields better forecasts compared to ARIMA model, especially in the zones with less rainfall, i.e. zone 3 and zone 4. RMSE of ASTAR models in zone 3, 4, 5, and 7 are 36.40; 43.39; 66.92 and 75.66. The rainfall forecast in zone 3 have the smallest SSE compared to other 3 zones. The smallest SSE for all zones happen in the next 3 month. Therefore, in the forecasting, the data should be updated once in 3 months.

Contributor

: Dr. Bambang, W. Otok, S.Si, M.

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Date Create Type Format Language Identifier Collection Call Number Source COverage Right

: 22/12/2009 : Text : pdf : Indonesian : ITS-Undergraduate-3100009036010 : 3100009036010 : RSSt 519.55 Ist p : Undergraduate theses, Statistic Departemen, RSSt 519.55 Ist p, 2009 : ITS Communication Only : Copyright @2009 by ITS Library. This publication is protected by copyright and permission should be obtained from the ITS Library prior to any prohibited reproduction, storage in a retrievel system, or transmission in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or likewise. For information regarding permission(s), write to ITS Library

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