Greening Đ I M I: An Outlook On The Potential of Green Jobs in Vietnam

Greening I MI: An Outlook on the Potential of Green Jobs in Vietnam
Nguyen chi Quoc

September 2012
Vietnam succeeded in providing rapid and continuous economic growth, vast poverty reduction, broad-based improvements and welfare for a majority of the Vietnamese population. Vietnam is still in a development transition process, a process of structural change that didnt keep pace with the rapid economic growth in the past. Although, Vietnam is in absolute terms still a minor polluter, Vietnam is on a trajectory to become more dependent on fossil fuels and fossil fuel products, which is not sustainable and will lead to enhanced CO2 emission. Vietnams past economic model is unsustainable and noncompetitive in the long run. Given these challenges in the socio-economic and socio-ecological sphere one of the central strategic tasks for the Vietnamese economy is to green i Mi for the years to come.
Greening i Mi: An Outlook on the Potential of Green Jobs in Vietnam | Nguyen chi Quoc
Table of Contents
Introduction ....................................................................................................................................... 3 1. Vietnams Economic Model and Its Impact on the Environment ................................................. 5 1.1 The foundation and structure of the Vietnamese economic model .................................... 5 1.2 The Vietnamese economic model and its relationship to the environment ........................ 9 1.2.1 Vietnams overall energy trends ............................................................................... 9 1.2.2 Sectoral usage and usage trends with regard to water, land and energy ................. 10 1.2.3 Vietnams efficiency of resource usage in the economic sectors ............................... 12 1.2.4 Vietnams pollution trends in the economic sectors ................................................. 14 1.2.5 Vietnams environmental performance in comparative perspective .......................... 16 1.2.5.1 The Environmental Sustainability Index (ESI) 2005 ........................................ 16 1.2.5.2 The Environmental Performance Index (EPI) 2012 ........................................ 17 1.2.5.3 Adjusted net saving approach .................................................................. 18 2 1.2.5.4 CO Emissions ............................................................................................. 19 2. Greening Policies ....................................................................................................................... 19 2.1 Policies that promote resource-intensive economic development ....................................... 19 2.2 Policies that reduce resource intensity and environmental effects ...................................... 20 2.2.1 The legal framework on environmental protection ................................................... 20 2.2.2 Sustainable development - Agenda 21 in Vietnam .................................................. 21 2.2.3 Climate change policies .......................................................................................... 22 2.3 Policies for a green economy ............................................................................................. 22 2.3.1 Green Industry Policy Framework ............................................................................ 22 2.3.2 The Viet Nam National Green Growth Strategy (VGGS) ........................................... 23 2.3.3 Policies for the development of renewable energies ................................................ 24 2.4 Green jobs policies ............................................................................................................ 25 3. Greening Discourses .................................................................................................................. 26 3.1 Situating the discourse on green jobs ................................................................................ 26 3.2 A short history of the relationship between environment and development in Vietnam ..... 27 3.2.1 The discourse on environmental protection ............................................................. 27 3.2.2 The discourse on sustainable development ............................................................. 27 3.2.3 The discourse on climate change ............................................................................. 28 3.2.4 Brief conclusion ...................................................................................................... 29 3.3 The characteristics and structure of the discourse on green economy, green growth and and green jobs ................................................................................................................. 29 4. Conclusions The Way Forward in Greening i Mi ............................................................... 31 References ........................................................................................................................................ 33 About the author ............................................................................................................................... 35
Boxes Box 1. Summary of incentives for renewable energy projects ............................................................. 25 Figures Figure 1. Viet Nams total primary energy demand by fuel type and GDP 1971 - 2007 ........................ 10 Figure 2. Intensity of water use by economic sector ............................................................................ 11 Figure 3. Intensity of land use by economic sector .............................................................................. 11 Figure 4. Intensity of energy use by economic sector .......................................................................... 12 Figure 5. Comparison of GDP growth and resource use growth indexes in the sector of agriculture, forestry and fishing (Year 1990 =1) ..................................................................................... 13 Figure 6. Comparison of GDP growth and resource use growth indexes in the sector of industry and construction (Year1990 =1) ........................................................................................... 13 Figure 7. Comparison of GDP growth and resource use growth indexes in the service sector (Year 1990 =1) ................................................................................................................ 14 Figure 8. NOx pollution intensity by economic sector (kg NOx per million VND at constant 1994 prices) 15 Figure 9. SOx pollution intensity by economic sector (kg SOx per million VND at constant 1994 prices) 15 Figure 10. CO2 pollution Intensity from consuming fossil fuels (kg CO2 per million VND at constant 1994 prices) ........................................................................................................................ 16 Figure 11. Vietnam: Gross and net savings, 19992008 ...................................................................... 18 Tables Table 1. GDP at current prices by economic sector and job share of economic sector .......................... Table 2. Technical/professional education and training background of labour force, 2004, in million ... 7 8
Table 3. Southeast Asian countries ESI ranking ................................................................................... 17 Table 4. EPI detailed data on EPI 2012 ............................................................................................... 17 Table 5. ESI score Southeast Asian countries ...................................................................................... 18
Introduction
The concept i Mi means literally changing into something new, something that has been a constant undertaking in the development of the Vietnamese economy, ever since the start of its similarly termed economic reform policies in 1986. In the past, the challenge of i Mi was to design an economic model that would provide overall welfare for the people in Vietnam, something the centrally planned economy failed to do. The approach taken was to open up the economy and gradually move the economy toward being based on market economic principles while at the same time aiming at equal distribution of the benefits of economic growth. The economic model of a socialist-orientated market economy was born. Being predominantly rural and one of the poorest countries in the world before the reforms, i Mi succeeded in providing rapid and continuous economic growth, vast poverty reduction, broadbased improvements and welfare for a majority of the Vietnamese population. Not only did Vietnam reach lower middle-income status in 2008, furthermore it is on track achieving most of its millennium development goals. However, as the Vietnamese economy is maturing, the mechanisms and strategies that worked in the past will not work in the same way in the future for different reasons. Evidence shows that the success of the economic model was heavily borne by the environment. Urbanization and industrialization led to high levels of water and air pollution and high extraction of natural resources, only counterbalanced to a small extent by higher efficiency. This inefficient use of natural resources is negatively affecting the comparative advantages of Vietnams economy. In other words, the past economic model is unsustainable and noncompetitive in the long run. Furthermore, underdeveloped or unresolved issues in the economy, macroeconomic instability, especially inflation, the development of the legal and financial system and the rule of law, the building of appropriate infrastructure and the lack of skilled labor and the demographic pressure on the labor market, add a socio-economic dimension to the socio-ecological challenges of the Vietnamese economic model. But the Vietnamese economic model does not only face domestic challenges. Global challenges like the financial crisis and climate change further exacerbate the situation. The former will affect the export sector of Vietnam; the latter is significant as Vietnam is one of the most adversely affected countries in the world by climate change. Given the challenges in the socio-economic and socio-ecological sphere one of the central strategic tasks for the Vietnamese economy is to green i Mi for the years to come. Hence, the Vietnamese economic model is once again in need of change to sustain growth and meet overall developmental goals. This case study, which is part of the Friedrich-Ebert-Foundations global project on the Economy of Tomorrow, aims to contribute to this strategic task. In the framework of green growth and green economy, green jobs play a significant role in providing employment that is environmentally friendly and socially equitable. As a result, green jobs are seen as a means to address the socio-economic and socioecological challenges. In-depth studies on the thematic of green jobs in Vietnam do not yet exist. However, there is research from the Asia Business Council (Asia Business Council 2009) that aims to provide a preliminary assessment through the creation of a green jobs index, which measures current green employment needs, the market potential of various green industry segments, labor availability for green jobs, and government commitments to green job policies in various Asian economies. (Asia Business Council 2009) In 2009, Vietnam is ranked 13 out of 14 in this green jobs index (China ranks first place and Japan second place). The authors explain the composition of the index as followed:
3
Greening i Mi: An Outlook on the Potential of Green Jobs in Vietnam Nguyen chi Quoc |
The index is composed of four equally weighted dimensions. Two of them measure green job market demand: green job postings indicating current employment needs; and green market potential identifying the main industry segments that can create green jobs. The other two dimensions measure green job enablers: green labor availability gauging the number of environmental programs offered by top universities, as well as the number of science and engineering graduates and managers in private and public enterprises with potentially transferable skills; and environmental performance according to key international standards, along with government policies to prepare the economy for green jobs. (Asia Business Council 2009) However, the relatively equal weighing of the dimensions is too static to account for the wide developmental differences of countries that are assessed for the green jobs index. For example, 25% of the index accounts for green job postings, where developing countries are at a disadvantage; because industrialized countries are much more mature regarding green labor markets and structures. Moreover, this research does not provide a definition of green jobs, so what counts as a green job, which is a central element to select the data for the index, is not documented. Finally, although Vietnam is part of the assessment, no further information is given on the case of Vietnam except its ranking and scoring. Another ongoing project related to green jobs in Vietnam is a technical assistance project for research and development on Education and Skills for Inclusive Growth and Green Jobs provided by the Asian Development Bank (ADB) (ADB 2011). The project focuses on improving and increasing the impact on the availability of job-oriented courses and skills training, including for green occupations(ADB 2011) in four countries including Vietnam. It aims at timely and effective policies and strategies for skills development, including green growth(ADB 2011). However, to date no results have been published or made available. Moreover, the project will solely focus on the skills aspect of Green Jobs and will therefore not deal with the issue of green jobs in general. In summary, this study fills a gap in the literature on green jobs in Vietnam, as currently there is no in-depth study available on the topic of green jobs in Vietnam that assesses Vietnams overall potential in this field and that aims to guide policy development in Vietnam. The objective of the study is to identify potential and prospects for Green Industries and Green Jobs in Vietnam and to develop corresponding policy options. Furthermore, it is the aim of the project to raise awareness and to bring together different actors from governments, civil society and trade unions in Vietnam to build up new alliances in the promotion of a just transition towards low-carbon economies. In this study green jobs are understood according to the definition advocated by the United Nations Environmental Programme (UNEP) and the International Labor Organization (ILO): Green jobs can be generically defined as the direct employment created in different sectors of the economy and through related activities, which reduces the environmental impact of those sectors and activities, and ultimately brings it down to sustainable levels. This includes decent jobs that help to reduce consumption of energy and raw materials, de-carbonize the economy, protect and restore ecosystems and biodiversity and minimize the production of waste and pollution. (Jarvia/Varma 2011) As can be seen here, the definition of green jobs includes two dimensions: a) The environmental dimension (sustainability of economic processes) and b) The social dimension (decent work).
4
This aspect is especially important, as given this definition green jobs can only be achieved if both criteria are met. The study is divided into four parts based on the Terms of Reference of the project. The first part describes the economic model and its impact on the environment. The second part analyses in general the policy framework that either hinder or support green economy and green jobs. The third part focuses on discourses in Vietnam on topics such as green economy, green growth and green jobs. Here, emphasis is given to the identification of key entry points of the discourse and key partners and their agenda regarding the support for a socially just and environmentally sustainable economy. The fourth and last part gives conclusions and general policy recommendations to further take forward the issue of Green Jobs in Vietnam.
1.
Vietnams Economic Model and Its Impact on the Environment

1.1 The foundation and structure of the Vietnamese economic model
The most remarkable characteristic of the Vietnamese economy is its speed of transformation, which can be seen in its high GDP growth in the past. This growth is the result of a combination of socio-economic policies that were rapidly absorbed by the socio-economic structure and by exploiting high potential in labor force and natural resources. The high GDP growth is intended by the Vietnamese economic model to lift Vietnam to modern-industrialized country status in 2020, a goal set in 1996 at the 8th Party Congress (Van 2012). The key sector for the overall transformation of the Vietnamese economic model from a centrally planned economy to a market based economy was the agricultural sector. In the 1980s the agricultural sector was unable to provide food security for the country, although it was the predominant source for household income and therefore also absorbed the majority of the labor force in Vietnam. Hence, the growth of the Vietnamese economy at that time was confined to the productivity gains in the agricultural sector (Arkadie et. al. 2010). By de-collectivization, greater freedom in land-use rights and the liberalization of trade, economic reform policies provided the foundation for a rise in agricultural productivity. This development was supported by a green revolution in agriculture, a process where infrastructure was enhanced and new seeds varieties and fertilizers introduced, to improve overall agricultural productivity. Both factors combined resulted in the tremendous productivity gains of the agricultural sector in Vietnam (Arkadie et. al. 2010). Indicative for the gains in agricultural productivity was the production of rice. The production and consumption of rice is significant for Vietnam: On the production side rice has been the most important crop cultivated in Vietnam throughout its history. This is mirrored on the consumption side where rice is satisfying the main portion of calorific intake of the Vietnamese people. However, Vietnam was a net importer of rice until late into the 1980s, a situation that changed rapidly with the successful adoption of the i Mi policies. As a result, only a decade later in 1996 Vietnam became by volume the second largest exporter of rice, a position that Vietnam still retains in 2012. However, the ascension to the second largest exporter of rice not only exemplifies the tremendous improvements in agricultural productivity, it also highlights the transition to an export-orientated economy for two reasons. Firstly, the tremendous productivity gains in the agricultural sector made it possible to export Vietnamese agricultural products that were well received on the global market. In 2011 the export
5
turnover of agro-forestry and fisheries products was approximately $25 Billion among these products are rice, coffee, rubber, tea, cashew nut, pepper, wood and wooden products and seafood products (intellasia.net 3rd January, 2012). Secondly, as agricultural productivity soared as a result of the economic reform policies and an accompanying green revolution, food security was achieved. However, gains in agricultural productivity due to the technical improvements no longer depended on the labor force. Hence, the agricultural sector generated a surplus of labor in need of employment. This labor was the foundation for the rapid industrialization of the Vietnamese economy (Arkadie et. al. 2010). Furthermore, the i Mi policies did not only focus on the domestic side. Its aim was also to open up the economy, especially to attract foreign investment. Hence, in 1988 the law on foreign direct investment (FDI) was promulgated, laying the ground for foreign capital inflows into Vietnam allowing joint-ventures and foreign-owned enterprises. FDI into Vietnam took advantage of the literate and cheap labor force the main comparative advantage of the Vietnamese economy by developing a labor-intensive, export orientated manufacturing sector that absorbed large parts of the labor force had been set free from the agricultural sector and was in need of work. However, a large portion of FDI was directed to the construction sector where foreign investors expected an increase in demand due to the economic growth and into the development and exploitation of Vietnams yielding commodities, such as oil and gas resources (Arkadie et. al. 2010). In sum, these factors combined over time led to the huge success of the Vietnamese economic model. The overall transition of the Vietnamese economic model is vividly displayed in table 1. As can be seen from table 1, agricultural output increased 25 times since 1990 in absolute terms, although the overall share of the agriculture sector in the economy has almost halved from 38.74% in 1990 to 20.58% in 2010. Furthermore, the table displays a steady decline in the share of jobs in the agricultural sector from 62.2% in 2000 to 48.7% in 2010 as less labor is needed in the agricultural sector. However, still almost half of the labor is employed in the agricultural sector. The correlation between the agricultural sector and the industry & construction sector can be shown by focusing on the job share. Whereas, as mentioned above the share of jobs in the agricultural sector has declined, the share of jobs in the industry & construction has risen from 13% in 2000 to 21.7% in 2010. Hence, the loss of 13.5% in job share in the agricultural sector has been partly compensated by the increase of 8.7% in the industry & construction sector. Overall these structural changes are in line with the objectives of the Vietnamese government to industrialize Vietnam.
Table 1: GDP at current prices by economic sector and job share of economic sector
Brief excursion: Rapid economic growth and structural change in Vietnam - The Informal sector, Technical and Vocational Training in Vietnam, Technology in the Vietnamese manufacturing sector. Rapid economic growth does not imply that the structural change in the economy is in balance with economic growth. The examples of the informal sector, the technical and vocational training (TVET) and technology in the Vietnamese manufacturing sector highlight that Vietnam is already facing challenges to adapt its structure to the rapid economic growth. Furthermore, in the context of green jobs the informal sector, TVET and the technical standards of the Vietnamese manufacturing sector play an important role. Firstly, employment in the informal economy highlights social challenges in employment, because employment in the informal sector is often precarious and therefore, do not meet the criteria of decent employment, which corresponds to the social dimension of green jobs. Secondly, the level of education and the skills of the labor workforce give an indication as to which kind of green jobs can be promoted and developed in a country. Thirdly, the technology used in the manufacturing sector points to the possible adoption of greener technical standards. As a consequence, it is necessary to briefly elaborate on these aspects of the Vietnamese economic model. a) The informal sector The informal sector in Vietnam is an understudied part of the economy. In recent years, research in this field has grown and indicated that the informal economy is widespread and therefore plays a predominant role in the Vietnamese economy. Findings show that the informal economy is not only confined to the agricultural sector. Instead, research revealed that in 2007 82% of the employment in Vietnam was located in the informal sector. Moreover, the informal sector provided 11 million out of
7
a total of 46 million jobs in the economy. 43% of employment in manufacturing & construction are informal, 31% in trade and 26% in services. It is estimated that 20% of GDP can be accounted to the informal sector (Cling et. al. 2011). As a result, the informal sector is an important part of the Vietnamese economy, not only confined to the agricultural sector. b) Technical and vocational training in Vietnam (TVET) Regarding the Vietnamese TVET system there are a few points that are worth highlighting in the context of the study. Although, the literacy rate is quite high with 92.8% in 2009 (87.6% in 1989) (ESCAP 2011), this does not necessarily mean that the labor force is well educated, because data shows that the higher the education the less people participate in Vietnam. For example, 75% of children are likely to complete lower secondary education and 57% upper secondary level (GIZ 2008). However, the real challenge for the TVET system in Vietnam is to provide high quality, relevant, labor market orientated TVET for a large number of the labor force. According to data from the Ministry of Labor Invalids and Social Affairs (MOLISA) see table 2, in 2004 75% of the labor force was unskilled, only 3.5% of the labor force had a certificate and only 5.4% had an academic education background. As a consequence, there is a shortage of skilled and educated staff on the labor market, which results in productivity that is only half of the ASEAN average. This significantly affects competitiveness (GIZ 2008). A further conclusion is that the current labor force is not sufficiently prepared for potential Green Jobs, as a Green Jobs labor market will demand a more skilled and educated labor force that is lacking in Vietnam. In addition to that, the pressure on the labor market in Vietnam will increase, because the labor force in Vietnam is growing rapidly, every year more than one million young people join the labor market (GIZ 2008). The government is challenged to not only increase the skill levels of the current labor force, but also to create millions of jobs every year. To sum up, the quality of the labor force in Vietnam lags behind peer countries in the region and there is a need to catch up to stay competitive in general, not to mention the demands that a green iM i economy has on TVET. Table 2: Technical/professional education and training background of labour force, 2004, in million
Source: Molisa 2006a taken from (GIZ 2008)
c) Technology in the Vietnamese manufacturing sector One of the main reasons for the vast environmental pollution in Vietnam can be highlighted when looking at the manufacturing sector. The manufacturing sector in the Vietnamese economy uses technology that is backward and outdated, which as a result, not only consumes more energy, but also produces more waste and pollution. Furthermore, the technology used is not competitive to technologies used in other peer countries of the region.
8
According to Van (Van 2012): Most machines and technology assembly (76%) were made during the 1950-1960 period. The overall machines and equipment situation in Vietnam now may be stated as 10% modern, 38% medium, 52% outdated (Nguyen The Nghia 2007). Due to the use of outdated technologies, local enterprise production expenditures are 10-30% higher than the world average expenditure. In addition, technology that is in place for environmental protection does not work efficiently, by 2009, only 43% of industrial zones had waste water treatment works and a large number of those did not operate efficiently (MONRE, 2010 in Van 2012). These examples highlight that Vietnam is still in a development transition process, a process of structural change that didnt keep pace with the rapid economic growth in the past. 1.2 The Vietnamese economic model and its relationship to the environment
There are two aspects where the Vietnamese economic model and the environment interact. On the one hand, the current economic model relies heavily on resources that the environment provides and on the other hand, the current economic model has a considerable impact on the environment. Although Vietnam is in absolute terms still a minor polluter, several environmental indicators highlight that this is changing rapidly. For example, the per capita CO2 emissions are still low with 1.2 tons per capita in 2008. However, Vietnam has the highest growth rate in CO2 emissions in Southeast Asia, 9.6% in 2008 (ESCAP 2011). This following section will elaborate in more detail on the relationship between the economic model of Vietnam and the environment. Firstly, a brief overview on Vietnams overall energy trends will be given. Secondly, a sectoral view on trends and resource usage regarding water, land and energy will be presented. Thirdly, Vietnams efficiency of resource usage in the economic sectors will be displayed. Fourthly, Vietnams pollution trends in the economic sectors will be outlined. Lastly, Vietnams environmental performance in comparative perspective will be assessed. 1.2.1 Vietnams overall energy trends Vietnams energy demand has increased considerably with rapid economic growth. From 1998 to 2009 average annual growth rate of energy was between 12%-14.6% (Nguyen 2011). This trend will continue in the future with demand growing in 2005-2025 at a rate of 9.9%-11.2%. Most notably, the share of fossil fuels in total energy consumption has risen from 20% in 1991 to 54% in 2000 (UNDP 2012), see figure 1.
Fossil fuels are playing an increasingly important part in the energy mix of Viet Nam, and they are essential for economic growth. The share of fossil fuel consumption in total energy consumption has increased from around 20% in 1991 to 54% in 2008 (Figure 1). Increasing oil consumption in Greening i Mi: Ansector, Outlook on the Potential of Green Vietnam generation have driven this. the transport and coal and gas Jobs for in electricity
Nguyen chi Quoc |
60
60
Combus ble renewables and waste Hydro
50
50 Natural gas
40
40
Billion 2000 USD
Petroleum products Crude, NGL and feedstocks Coal and coal products Real GDP (right-hand axis)
Mtoe
30
30
20
20
10
10
0 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006
Figure 1: Viet Nams total primary energy demand by fuel type and GDP 1971 - 2007 Source: IEA (2010), World Bank (2010b) taken from (UNDP 2012)
The data show that biomass (combustible renewables waste) is still the most important primary Energy intensity in Vietnam declined by 35% fromand 1991 to 2008, but this rate was around 13% 27 . Furthermore, energy source, but this is likely to change rapidly as household incomes increase higher than the average in other middle-income countries. In sum, Viet Nam uses less energy perperson than most middle-income countries, but it does that less efficiently (UNDP 2012). Furthermore, a quarter of all electricity; see is also Figurein 2). Continued exponential growth expected primary energy demand, and it is expected that this will be met mainly by fossil fuels, i.e. for electricity generation (section 2.1.1) and refined petroleum products Viet Nams energy intensity has declined by about 35%, from 400 KgOE/1,000 USD GDP (PPP) for various uses (section 2.1.2) (UNDP 2012). However, Vietnam is not able to meet the demand on in 1991 to around 260 KgOE/1,000 USD in 200828, but it was around 13% higher than the middle its own. For example, Vietnam will become a net importer of coal by 2030 (UNDP 2012). As a result, Vietnam is on a trajectory to become more 29 dependent on fossil fuels and fossil fuel products, which is . 2 not sustainable and will lead to enhanced CO emissions. Continued exponential growth is expected in primary energy demand, and it is expected that this 1.2.2 Sectoral usage and usage trends with regard to water, land and energy products for various uses (section 2.1.2).30 As has been shown, the agricultural sector and the industry & construction sector play a major role in the Vietnamese economy. Hence, it is not surprising that both sectors alternate in their role as the 2.1.1. Electricity demand supply main resource intensive sectors in the and Vietnamese economy.
Regarding the agriculture-forestry-fishery has the highest intensity in using water, Fossil fuels are water increasingly important for electricalsector power in Viet Nam. Hydropower accounted 3 3 although it has decreased by 46% from 1990 (1,119 m [unit: Water m per million VND (at constant 1994 prices]) to 2007 (603 m3) as a result of the green revolution rather than by a change of farmers practices. The industry & construction sector was the second largest consumer of water. Contrary, to the Fossil Fuel Fiscal Policies & GHG emissions in Viet Nam | 12 agriculture-forestry-fishery sector the water usage intensity has increased by 30% from 1990 (160 m3) to 2007 (203 m3) in the industry & construction sector. This was caused by an industrialization process that emphasized growth in water-intensive industries, which accounted for 52.4% of industrial output in Vietnam (UNESCAP/CIEM 2009), see figure 2.
10
1200.0 1000.0 800.0 600.0 400.0 200.0 0.0
National w ide, as m3 per million VND constant GDP
Agriculture-fishery and forestry, as m3 per million VND the sector's constant added value
Industrial and construction sector, as m3 per million VND the sector's constant added value
Figure 2: Intensity of water use by economic sector Source: (UNESCAP/CIEM 2009)
With a view to land usage, all economic sectors had a tendency to decrease their land usage intensity. The agriculture-forestry-fishery sector has, by far, had the most intensive usage of land compared to all economic sectors in Vietnam and even compared to the overall economy since 2000. Interestingly, the service sector was able to rapidly decrease the intensity of land usage from 1990-2007, from 152 m2 to 53 m2 in order to create one million VND of value added in services. It is likely that this was the result of an enormous growth in the service sector thereby reducing the land intensity usage (UNESCAP/CIEM i M i 2009), see figure 3.
Figure 3: Intensity of land use by economic sector Source: (UNESCAP/CIEM 2009)
19 90 19 91 19 92 19 93 19 94 19 95 19 96 19 97 19 98 19 99 20 00 20 01 20 02 20 03 20 04 20 05 20 06 20 07
90 991 992 993 994 995 996 997 998 999 000 001 002 003 004 005 006 007 19 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
11
Finally, energy usage is led by the industry & construction sector. During the years between 1990 and 2007 energy usage fluctuated. However, since 2000 the industry & construction sector surpassed and grew stronger than the national average. Overall the energy consumption of the agricultural-forestryfishery and service sectors is seven times lower than the industry & construction sector, nevertheless, both sectors have an upward trend in energy usage (UNESCAP/CIEM 2009), see figure 4.
180.0 160.0 140.0 120.0 100.0 80.0 60.0 40.0 20.0 0.0
19 90 19 91 19 92 19 93 19 94 19 95 19 96 19 97 19 98 19 99 20 00 20 01 20 02 20 03 20 04 20 05 20 06 20 07
70.0 60.0 50.0 40.0 30.0 20.0 10.0 0.0
Natio nal wide energy use intensity as kg o il equivalent per millio n VND co nstant GDP
A griculture-fishery and fo restry secto r energy use intensity kg o il equivalent per millio n VND o f the secto r's added value
Industrial and co nstructio n secto r energy use intensity as kg o il equivalent per millio n VND o f the secto r's added value
P ublic &services secto r energy use intensity as kg o il equivalent per millio n VND o f the secto r's added value
Figure 4: Intensity of energy use by economic sector Source: (UNESCAP/CIEM 2009)
In sum, there is a mixed picture regarding the usage trends of water and land. However, there is a general trend that energy usage increases in the agriculture-fishery and forestry sector and the Public & Services sector. The industry & construction sector has a volatile and very high level of energy consumption. 1.2.3 Vietnams efficiency of resource usage in the economic sectors The measurement of the efficiency of resource usage of the sectors is based on comparing the growth in resource use to the value added (value measures in GDP). In the agriculture-fishery and forestry sector the increase in land and water usage was below the increase in value added. In contrast, the increase in energy usage was always higher than the increase in value added, although, in 2004 the energy efficiency in this sector has improved considerable breaking the upward trend (UNESCAP/CIEM 2009), see figure 5.
12
3.00 Index of w ater use by the sector
2.50
2.00
Index of energy use by the sector
1.50
Index of land use by the sector
1.00
0.50
Index of value added of the sector
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
Figure 5: Comparison of GDP growth and resource use growth indexes in the sector of agriculture, forestry and fishing (Year 1990 =1) Source: (UNESCAP/CIEM 2009)
For the industry-construction sector the use of energy and water correlated almost equally with i Mi the value added. Nevertheless, in the period of 2004-2007 there was an increase in energy use, which seems to have been reversed in 2007 (UNESCAP/CIEM 2009), see figure 6.
7.00 6.00 5.00 4.00 3.00 2.00 1.00 0.00
Index of w ater use by industry and construction sector Index of energy use in industry and construction sector Index of land use in industry and construction sector Index of value added in the sector
Figure 6: Comparison of GDP growth and resource use growth indexes in the sector of industry and construction Source: (Year1990 =1) (UNESCAP/CIEM 2009)
6.00 5.00
19 90 19 91 19 92 19 93 19 94 19 95 19 96 19 97 19 98 19 99 20 00 20 01 20 02 20 03 20 04 20 05 20 06 20 07
Index of energy use in public and service sector Index of land use in public and service sector Index of value added in the sector
13
2007
0.00
The trends in the service sector show that it managed to increase land usage more slowly than the value added and was able to reverse the upward trend in 2004. However, the trend in energy usage was much higher than the trend in value added (UNESCAP/CIEM 2009), see figure 7.
6.00 5.00 4.00 3.00 2.00 1.00 0.00 Index of energy use in public and service sector Index of land use in public and service sector Index of value added in the sector
Figure 7: Comparison of GDP growth and resource use growth indexes in the service sector (Year 1990 =1) Source: (UNESCAP/CIEM 2009)
Overall, these indicators suggest that the economic sectors tend to improve their water and land usage in line with value added. However, no sector was able to significantly reverse or decouple the correlation. The usage of energy, in contrast, was either in line with value added or above, which highlights that no economic sector was able to improve energy efficiency considerable or decouple it from GDP growth. 1.2.4 Vietnams pollution trends in the economic sectors The agriculture, forestry and fishery sector was the strongest NOx polluter, although from 19901995 there was a slight downward trend. This changed significantly since 1996 peaking in 2007 with 3.4 kilos per VND one million of value added. The explanation is that farmers began to use fertilizers excessively without the proper measurement (UNESCAP/CIEM 2009). The NOx pollution in the industry-construction sector is considerable lower, but shows an upward trend. Overall NOx pollution increases on the national level (UNESCAP/CIEM 2009) see figure 8.
19 90 19 91 19 92 19 93 19 94 19 95 19 96 19 97 19 98 19 99 20 00 20 01 20 02 20 03 20 04 20 05 20 06 20 07
19 90 19 91 19 92 19 93 19 94 19 95 19 96 19 97 19 98 19 99 20 00 20 01 20 02 20 03 20 04 20 05 20 06 20 07
14
4.00 3.50 3.00 2.50 2.00 1.50 1.00 0.50 0.00

Industry and co nstructio n secto r A griculture, fo restry and fishery secto r
Natio nal wide
P ublic and service secto r
Figure 8: NOx pollution intensity by economic sector (kg NOx per million VND at constant 1994 prices) Source: (UNESCAP/CIEM 2009)
The main SOx polluter is the industry-construction sector. Starting on a high level in 1990 it halved until 2007. One explanation for this success is that thermo-electricity plants were restricted in favor for hydropower plants. Overall, this reduction led to a significant reduction of SOx pollution on the i Mi national level. The other economic sectors were not major SOx polluters and their trends are quite stable (UNESCAP/CIEM 2009), see figure 9.
1990
4.00 3.50 3.00 2.50 2.00 1.50 1.00 0.50 0.00
Figure 9: SOx pollution intensity by economic sector (kg SOx per million VND at constant 1994 prices) Source: (UNESCAP/CIEM 2009)
19 90 19 91 19 92 19 93 19 94 19 95 19 96 19 97 19 98 19 99 20 00 20 01 20 02 20 03 20 04 20 05 20 06 20 07
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
Natio nal wide A griculture, fo restry and fishery secto r Industry and co nstructio n secto r P ublic and service secto r
15
0.00
The industry-construction sector was also the top CO2 polluter. However, there was no clear trend from 1990-2007. The agriculture-forestry-fishery and services sector had both an increase trend in CO2 emissions, albeit from a lower level. Overall the national CO2 emissions increased. This is explained by a higher demand of fossil fuels especially from the industry-construction sector given the growth and industrialization processes. Furthermore, this sector uses outdated technology that was less energy efficient thereby emitting higher amounts of CO2 (UNESCAP/CIEM 2009), see figure 10.
0.25 0.20 0.15 0.10 0.05 0.00
Figure 10: CO2 pollution Intensity from consuming fossil fuels (kg CO2 per million VND at constant 1994 prices) Source: (UNESCAP/CIEM 2009)
In summary, in the case of SOx pollution Vietnam was successful in significantly reducing the pollutant. However, there is an increase in NOx and CO2 pollution with a tendency to grow further in the future. 1.2.5 Vietnams environmental performance in comparative perspective Vietnams environmental performance in comparative perspective will be assessed through four indicators. I) The Environmental Sustainability Index (ESI) 2005; II) The Environmental Performance Index (EPI) 2012 and; III) adjusted net savings approach; IV) CO2 Emissions. 1.2.5.1 The Environmental Sustainability Index (ESI) 2005 The Environmental Sustainability Index (ESI) benchmarks the ability of nations to protect the environment over the next several decades. It does so by integrating 76 data sets tracking natural resource endowments, past and present pollution levels, environmental management efforts, and the capacity of a society to improve its environmental performance into 21 indicators of environmental sustainability. These indicators permit comparison across a range of issues that fall into the following five broad categories: Environmental Systems Reducing Environmental Stresses Reducing Human Vulnerability to Environmental Stresses Societal and Institutional Capacity to Respond to Environmental Challenges Global Stewardship (Esty et. al. 2005)
16
19 90 19 91 19 92 19 93 19 94 19 95 19 96 19 97 19 98 19 99 20 00 20 01 20 02 20 03 20 04 20 05 20 06 20 07
National w ide Industry and construction sector Agriculture, forestry and fishery sector Public and service sector
19 90 19 91 19 92 19 93 19 94 19 95 19 96 19 97 19 98 19 99 20 00 20 01 20 02 20 03 20 04 20 05 20 06 20 07
Regarding the ESI, Vietnam ranks No. 127 (out of 146) on global comparison and No. 98 (out of 117) in non-OECD countries. In comparison with other Southeast Asian nations Vietnams ranks last together with the Philippines. In sum, Vietnam seems to underperform in this benchmark, see table 3. Table3: Southeast Asian countries ESI ranking
Source: (Esty et. al. 2005)
1.2.5.2 The Environmental Performance Index (EPI) 2012 The Environmental Performance Index ranks countries on performance indicators tracked across policy categories that cover both environmental public health and ecosystem vitality. These indicators provide a gauge at a national government scale of how close countries are to established environmental policy goals. (Yale University last accessed 08.03.2012) Overall, Vietnam ranks No.79 (out of 132) scoring 50.6 points. In the respective categories Vietnam tends to be in either in the middle or in the lower third, with the only exception of the category of water resources (Ecosystem Effects). Furthermore, Vietnam underperforms regarding Air (Effects on Human Health). In comparison to other SEA countries, Vietnam underperforms with Indonesia on No.74 the next competitor to Vietnam and Malaysia on No.25 with the best performance, see table 4. In summary, Vietnam is ranked in the lower area of the second third of the EPI ranking, but underperforms in comparison to other SEA countries, see table 5. Table 4: EPI detailed data on EPI 2012
Source: (Yale University last accessed 08.03.2012)
17
Table 5: ESI score Southeast Asian countries
Source:(Yale University last accessed 08.03.2012) compiled by author
1.2.5.3
Adjusted net saving approach
i Mi
The Adjusted net saving approach adds the investment of resources in education (as recurrent expenditure), but subtracts for costs for air pollution (the cost of particulate matter damaging human health) and the generation of carbon dioxide that contributes to climate change. It also subtracts the depletion of minerals and forest resources above sustainable yield. The income from them represents the depletion of a resource, not sustainable income. The result is a large differential between the traditional savings measure (gross savings as percentage of the gross national income (GNI)) and the adjusted savings. (WB 2010) Although, Vietnam has a surplus net saving of 10-17% rate of GNI in the last decade it doesnt perform as well as the entire lower-middle-income group. Furthermore, the East Asia & Pacific Group has an even higher surplus of 29%. For example in 2008 China had 35% and the Philippines 22%. Altogether, Vietnam lags behind when compared to its peer group of other lower-middle-income groups.
Figure 11: Vietnam: Gross and net savings, 19992008 Source: Adapted from World Bank 2010g in (WB 2010)
18
1.2.5.4
CO2 Emissions
As has been mentioned above, Vietnams CO2 emissions per capita are quite low. This makes Vietnam the fifth (of 11) lowest emitter per capita in SEA. However, with an annual percentage change of 9.9% in 1990-2000, 11.3% in 1995-2005, 11.1% 2000-2008 and 9.6% in 2008 it had the highest growth rates of all countries in SEA. In absolute terms (tons of CO2 emissions), Vietnam ranked fourth in SEA in 2008 (ESCAP 2011). In sum, Vietnams CO2 emissions rank in the middle compared to other SEA countries. However, the current trajectory of Vietnams CO2 emissions is quite alarming as it has the highest growth rates of CO2 emissions in SEA.
2.
Greening Policies1
2.1 Policies that promote resource-intensive economic development
The energy sector is the most important sector for Vietnams continued economic growth. Cheap energy is the element that keeps the economy running. As a result, the Vietnamese government has put policies in place to secure cheap energy. However, these policies are detrimental for the environment and not sustainable in the long run, as these subsidies promote the intensive usage of energy and drain the financial resources of the government. In addition, Vietnam is on a trajectory to get more dependent on foreign energy resources in the future, energy resources that are becoming scarcer and more expensive with a high volatility of prices. Although, subsidy policies are understudied, a recent UNDP study (UNDP 2012) revealed the various subsidy mechanisms in the energy sector. The research states that Electricity prices are capped and differentiated for different users. Domestic coal prices are set below world market prices in order to enable cheap electricity production and manufacturing. There are also price ceilings in the refined petroleum markets, and there are various taxes and tax waivers. Direct subsidies are exceptions but have happened. (UNDP 2012) These subsidies not only lead to more energy intensity, but also cost the government about 1% to 4% of GDP in current USD (UNDP 2012). Furthermore, it is estimated that the electricity tariff of 7USc/ kWh in 2010 is below the average price of 10USc/kWh in the ASEAN region (UNDP 2012). In addition to that, potential investors for the energy market are deterred, since this electricity tariff needs to be increased at about 15-30% above inflation to be profitable (UNDP 2012). The energy market in Vietnam is nevertheless functional, because the largest energy companies: Electricity Vietnam (EVN), Vinacomin (Coal) and Petrolimex (Oil) are state-owned enterprises that have
1 This account is not exhaustive, as the Vietnamese government on the national and provincial level produces a vast amount of policies that impact upon the envionment that would require a comprehensive reasearch on its own.
19
a monopolistic dominance over the market and are controlled by the government, although, a slow reform process is taking place. Among other policies, the Electricity Law of 2004 aims at reforming the market. However, political considerations are still an important element in the Vietnamese energy sector. For example, in 2009 a price stability fund was created to deal with rising prices. This fund was financed with fees for sold petroleum products per litre. Nevertheless, in early 2011 funds were exhausted and initial price liberalisation was halted to cope with inflation (UNDP 2012), which highlights that tackling inflation was considered an important objective where the energy sector had to contribute its part. Furthermore, this example shows that these subsidy policies can quickly reach their limits in a world of volatile prices for fossil-fuels. In conclusion, the energy sector displays that there are subsidy policies at place in Vietnam that are encouraging resource consumption. The main reason for these policies is to secure the cheap production of energy to support economic growth. 2.2 Policies that reduce resource intensity and environmental effects
2.2.1 The legal framework on environmental protection The main policy instrument to reduce resource intensity and environmental effects in the Vietnamese economy is the National Law on Environmental Protection, which was passed in 1993. The law was the result of strategic research done by Vietnamese experts with international support by government order since 1980. The law covered the following areas: the general duties of various administrative bodies; protection and abatement of pollution generally; the requirement for environmental impact evaluation; the establishment of environmental standards; broad import and export criteria; the requirements for exploration, transportation, processing, or storage of various toxic or hazardous substances; the location of potentially hazardous industries; a list of prohibited behavior or activities; remedies for environmental degradation or pollution; the system for addressing noncompliance and for rewarding compliance; and the implementation of international treaties and international cooperation. (Bryant/Akers 1999) However, the environmental law is not the only law to address environmental issues. Sectoral laws such as the Law on Forest Protection and Development (1991), the Law on Land (1993), the Mineral Law (1996), and the Law on Water Resources (1999) partly overlapped with the environmental law. The environmental law was revised in 2005 in order to provide for more coherent environmental legislation, as implementation of the laws was hindered by a lack of coherence (Quitzow/Br 2011). The latest law to be passed to protect the environment is the Environmental Protection Tax Law in November 2010, a law under consideration since 2004. This law aims at establishing disincentives for the creation of polluting materials by imposing a tax on coal and oil-based fuels but also on plastic bags, HCFC, pesticides and other chemical products (Quitzow/Br 2011).
20
Altogether, the Vietnamese government has set up a quite comprehensive legal framework for the protection of the environment. However, the main challenge for this legal framework lies in the implementation, which is not effective enough so far. One of the main reasons for this is that the law enforcement doesnt work effectively and efficiently and if enforced the sanctions are not high enough to deter the polluters from repeated violation of the environmental law. The lack of law enforcement is caused by limited capacities of staff, especially at the local level. Furthermore, an underdeveloped awareness for environmental issues by business operators leads to ignorance regarding the production of waste and pollution. However, weak implementation can also be explained by looking at the legal framework. For example, guidance and operationalization of the laws are insufficient. The framework still has limitations and gaps. Furthermore, the framework is not flexible enough to respond to requirements on the ground. In addition to that, governments on all levels seem to fail in management and coordination. Awareness is still low and the bureaucratic process is formal and cumbersome. 2.2.2 Sustainable development - Agenda 21 in Vietnam In 1992 a Vietnamese delegation that was represented by the National Environment Agency, which was part of the Ministry of Science, Technology and Environment (since 2002 Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment (MONRE)) participated in the Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Agenda 21, the development of strategies for sustainable development was endorsed by the Vietnamese government, which as a result led to initiatives that started in 2000 in this field. In 2001, with international technical and financial support a project on Support to Formulation and Implementation of the Vietnam Agenda 21 was initiated. This project aimed at giving guidance through capacity building, awareness raising and policy research for the development of Agenda 21 in Vietnam on the national and the local level (Pellini 2008). The project finally concluded in the building of a legal foundation for a more comprehensive concept of development in government policies in 2004, the so-called Strategic Orientation for Sustainable Development (Vietnam Agenda 21). An initial success of the Agenda 21 was that it apparently influenced the Socio-economic development plan for 2006-2010 in approaching industrialization and modernization in Vietnam by rapid and sustainable development (Pellini 2008). To implement Vietnam Agenda 21 a Sustainable Development Office (Agenda 21 Office) was created located in the Ministry of Planning and Investment (MPI). The office was tasked with devising action programs and plans to facilitate projects in the field of sustainable development. In 2005 the National Council on Sustainable Development (NCSD) was established, tasked with leading the Agenda 21 Office. The NCSD had the minister of MPI as standing vice chairman and the deputy prime minister as chair. Furthermore, members of all line ministries, and members of the most important committees of the Communist Party are invited to the Council, which show that sustainable development is dealt with holistically (Pellini 2008). However, the institutional settings generated by the Vietnam Agenda 21 and its given tasks have appeared dysfunctional since then. Neither a five year plan nor an annual work plan was produced by the Agenda 21 office, which could be due to the limited capacities to support the provincial planning (Pellini 2008).
21
2.2.3 Climate change policies Vietnam has ratified the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in 1994, and the Kyoto Protocol in 2002. In December 2008, the national target programme to respond to climate change (NTP-RCC) has been approved, which was drafted by the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment (MONRE), the ministry responsible for climate policies. The NTP-RCC sets the foundation for responding to climate change through research, planning and communication. Its linkages to socioeconomic planning and implementation are therefore less strong (Fortier 2010). However, the NTP-RCC highlights that an effective response to climate change is necessary to ensure sustainable development and it emphasizes the need to mainstream climate change into the socio-economic development strategies. Furthermore, it stresses the need to develop a low-carbon economy. Building on the NTP-RCC the National Climate Change Strategy (NCCS), which was approved in December 2011, is the policy document that builds the foundation for the implementation of a climate change response in Vietnam. Most notably, the NCCS considers a low-carbon economy and green growth as the guiding approaches for achieving sustainable development. Furthermore, throught the NCCS Vietnam commits itself to the reduction of GHG emissions, although, adaptation will be prioritized at the beginning. The NCCS comprises 10 strategic tasks that predominantly focus on climate change response. However, the contents of the strategic tasks are also partly in line with the creation of a green economy. For example, strategic task number 5: GHG emission reduction to protect global climate system refers to thematic sections of the strategic tasks that if effectively implemented would have a considerable positive effect on the environment. These thematic sections are the Development of new and renewable energies, Energy saving and efficiency, Industrial production and construction, Transportation, Agriculture, and Solid waste management. However, it is too early to assess the effectiveness of the NCCS as its impact cannot be assessed, since it is a quite young policy. 2.3 Policies for a green economy
2.3.1 Green Industry Policy Framework2 Vietnam is in the process of drafting a Green Industry Policy Framework (GIPF) with the support of the United Nations Industrial Development Organization (UNIDO). GIPF is part of the project Environmental Policy Advice: green industry development. It is in the area of responsibility of the Ministry of Industry and Trade (MOIT). The aim of the GIPF is to support the implementation of the goals set by the Congress XII of the Viet Nam Communist Party by developing and creating a green industry and by greening the existing industry. Greening industry means ensuring that all industries, regardless of sector, size, ownership, markets and location, continuously improve their environmental performance and resource productivity, whereas Creating green industries mean stimulating the development and creation of industries that deliver environmentally-friendly goods and services.
2 Informations for this section are taken from a Consultation Workshop on Green Industry Policy in Hanoi, 12th March 2012 where the author participated.
22
The GIPF aims at: reducing the intensity of consumption of resources in industry, reduction of intensity of waste, pollution and emission in industry and the proper management of it, development of an industry that is able to provide products that meet environmental standards. As this framework is in the consultation process, it is too early to speculate on its impact. However, the framework highlights that Vietnam is also active in developing a green or greener industry. 2.3.2 The Viet Nam National Green Growth Strategy (VGGS) The National Green Growth Strategy has been in development since the beginning of 2012. The VGGS was submitted for approval to the prime minister in June and was approved in September. With the development of the VGGS the Government has acknowledged the need to address the environmental and socio-economic challenges mainly by focusing on changing the growth model, as the old growth model is not sustainable. The VGGS is informed by the example of other countries that were able to decouple their economic development from their environmental footprint by changing production and consumption structures. Green growth is seen as an appropriate development path, which is compatible with the adjustment needs of the Vietnamese growth and economic model. In the VGGS Green growth is a key pillar of sustainable development to ensure fast, efficient and sustainable growth while making a great contribution to the implementation of the national climate change strategy (The Socialist Republic of Vietnam 2012). The VGGS addresses the process of economic restructuring towards more sustainable usage of natural resources and with it the reduction of GHG emissions. Furthermore, it aims at socio-economic improvements for the people of Vietnam. One overall objective and three specific objectives guide the VGGS: a) Overall Objective: Green growth, as a mean to achieve the low carbon economy and to enrich natural capital, will become the dominant trend in sustainable economic development which requires that mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions and increased capability to capture greenhouse gas are gradually becoming essential indicators in social-economic development. b) Specific objectives: - Economic restructuring and institutional improvement by greening existing sectors and encouraging the efficient utilization of natural resources and energy by sectors aiming at achieving higher added values; - Conduct researches and enhance application of appropriate advanced technologies to more efficiently use natural resources, reduce greenhouse gas emissions and to contribute to an effective response to climate change;
23
- Improving peoples living standards and creating environmental friendly lifestyle through job generation from green industry, agriculture and services; investment in natural capital; and development of green infrastructure. (The Socialist Republic of Vietnam 2012) To achieve these objectives the VGGS is divided into three strategic tasks: 1. Reduce the intensity of greenhouse gas emissions and promote the use of clean and renewable energies; 2. Greening production; 3. Greening lifestyle and promoting sustainable consumption. These three strategic tasks are accompanied with a catalog of solutions and measures that show in high detail how green growth will be addressed in Vietnam. As a result, the VGGS emphasizes implementation, a failure of former policies and therefore is a highly promising policy to establish a green economy in Vietnam. It is the aim of the VGGS to develop a guiding document for all stakeholders in Vietnam to address the issue of green growth. As a consequence, the VGGS demands that other stakeholder develop their respective action plans in this field. 2.3.3 Policies for the development of renewable energies Given the rapid growth of the economy, Vietnam is in need of developing various energy resources. It is known that Vietnam is endowed with large fossil-fuel energy resources. However, at the current consumption and production trajectory Vietnam will become a net importer of these resources in the future. Nevertheless, Vietnam also has available a fair potential of renewable energy resources. According to data from the GIZ wind project: Biomass from agricultural products and residues is available at equivalent to 10 million tons of oil a year. Biogas energy potential is approximately 10 billion m3 a year, which can be collected from landfills, animal excrements and agricultural residues. The technical potential of small hydropower (<30MW) is larger than 4,000MW. Solar energy is abundant with average solar radiation at 5kWh/m2 per day throughout the country. Vietnams geographic orientation with approximately 3400km of coastline also provides abundant wind energy at an estimated potential of 500-1000 kWh/m2 per year (GIZ accessed 08.08.2012) This potential has also been acknowledged by the Vietnamese government, as Vietnam has set up policies to pursue the development of renewable energies. In December 2007 the prime Minister approved the National energy development strategy 2020 with an outlook to 2050. This strategy aims at increasing the renewable energy rate to 3% of total primary energy consumption by 2010, 5% by 2020, and 11% by 2050 (Nguyen 2011). In order to fulfill the targets the Vietnamese government has set up various decisions and regulation to create incentives. A full account can be found here in (Nguyen 2011). The incentives can be summarized as follows in Box 1.
24
Box 1: Summary of incentives for renewable energy projects
2.4
Green jobs policies
In Vietnam currently there are no policies that target the creation of green jobs directly. However, there are several policies that relate to green jobs or that indirectly lead to the creation of green jobs as can be seen from the analysis in 2.3. Furthermore, the VGGS refers to green jobs in the context of green growth, without providing a dedicated strategy or analytical framework to address green job creation or the greening of jobs. Another policy that also refers to Green Jobs is the, still under draft, Vietnam Employment Strategy (ES). The ES could be a good place to put more emphasis on Green Jobs development in Vietnam. However, it fails to do so in the current draft version. The ES implements directions of the Socioeconomic development strategy 2011-2020 in the area of labor market. The current fourth draft of the ES puts its emphasis on the issue of decent work, given its objective of decent work for all. Therefore, among other things it also aims on promoting workers out of informality. Although, the fourth draft of the ES does include some sections on Green Jobs, it fails to provide a definition of what is meant by Green Jobs and fails to develop a comprehensive framework for developing green jobs. In other words, there is no effort to conceptually integrate the decent work aspect with the environment. However, the ES does integrate the issue of environmental sustainability and states in 2.1.7: Green Jobs for development and environmental sustainability A move towards green jobs will contribute towards a low-carbon economy, use of clean and renewable energy, resource efficiency , conservation of forests, reduced environmental pollution, enhanced solid waste management and pollutant management and a mitigated impact of industrial development on climate change. These measures and the adaptation to climate change itself by the locations, economic sectors and social groups most affected, have far reaching implications for production and consumption patterns and, therefore, for employment, incomes, and poverty patterns.
25
These long-term transformations are likely to alter the structure of employment towards sustainability, create new jobs, to reduce labour surplus and, more in general, to positively affect the world of work on several aspects, from health and safety improvements to work organization and production patterns and value chains. Therefore, this strategy requires broad consensus among institutional actors at the province and district levels, and social dialogue mechanisms will have to ensure harmonious industrial relations for developing strategies for such transformations that are both efficient and equitable. These long-term transformations will entail transitions towards green jobs and greener enterprises (The Socialist Republic of Vietnam 2012). Other references can be found in the draft of the ES. However, the current draft of the ES seems to be vague and unclear about the concept of Green Jobs. Furthermore, no actions are outlined to create Green Jobs. In sum, to date there are no explicit policy documents that address the creation of Green Jobs with a systematic approach.
3.
Greening Discourses
3.1 Situating the discourse on green jobs
i Mi is not only the term for the socio-economic reform policies that started in 1986, the concept has also became the grand narrative for discourses on socio-economic development in Vietnam ever since. One of the prevalent strands of the i Mi discourse centers on the subject matter of economic growth, which is also the central concept that links and integrates the discourses on green growth and green economy into the grand narrative. The debates about green jobs are a more recent extension to the green growth and green economy discourse that only emerged in the last few years. In order to better understand and situate the debates about green jobs it is worthwhile having a closer look at the concept of economic growth in the overall developmental discourse of Vietnam and how green growth and green economy are attached to it. Economic growth has been and still is one of the prime developmental objectives for Vietnam. Since the first socio-economic development strategy (SEDS) (the key policy document outlining the socioeconomic developmental priorities) economic growth has been a central aim. All three socio-economic development strategies (1991-2000, 2001-2010, 2011-2020) that Vietnam has had so far commonly targeted significant GDP growth. In the first SEDS for 1991-2000 the target was to double the gross domestic product (GDP) of Vietnam in 2000 compared to 1990. This is set forth in the SEDS for 2001-2010 where the GDP growth also aimed at doubling in 2010 compared to 2001 and lastly, the SEDS 2011-2020 maintained this goal by aiming to reach a GDP in 2020 equal to 2.2 of that in 2010. Prima facie there is no difference between the SEDS when looking at the quantitative targets for economic growth. Quite the contrary the endured objective of effectively doubling the GDP every ten
26
years highlights the primacy attached to economic growth in government policies. However, differences can be found in how the aim of economic growth is framed, which is also the entry point for the discourses on green economy, green growth and green jobs. Economic growth was framed in the first SEDS in the context of leading a country out of a socioeconomic crisis and stabilizing the macroeconomic balance (Nguyen 2006). Although, in the second SEDS economic growth was framed in a context of establishing a socialist-orientated market economy and in laying the foundations for a modern industrialized country by 2020, it was the first time that sustainable development and environmental protection where referred to in the context of economic growth. The third SEDS frames economic growth in the context of finally lifting Vietnam to industrialized country status. Interestingly, it also brings further economic growth, by not only attaching it to environmental protection, but also by referring to green economic development and by demanding a shift of the past growth model. In short, the concept is evolving and among other drivers, one of the main drivers of this evolution is the environmental consideration in the plans, although they also clearly relate to economic considerations. The next section will provide a short history of how environmental issues became part of the developmental discourse, which will reveal that a paradigm shift in the understanding of economic growth is actually under way. As said before, this paradigm shift is the entry point for the discourses on green growth, green economy and green jobs. 3.2 A short history of the relationship between environment and development in Vietnam
In the past there were three broad discursive strands that influenced the discursive relationship between environment and development in Vietnam that are complemented in recent years by the discourse on green economy, green growth and green jobs. The first is a discourse on environmental concerns and its protection that was initiated on the national level already before i Mi, the second is a discourse on sustainable development that started with the Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro in 1992 and the third discourse being the discourse on climate change that dated back into the 1980s, but got prominent at the beginning of the 21st century in Vietnam. 3.2.1 The discourse on environmental protection In 1980, the basic foundations for environmental policies were laid in Vietnam, when the subject environment was considered strategically by the government and first research on the issue was undertaken. 1981 marked the start of a government initiative the National Resources and Environment Research Programme to assess environmental challenges and approaches to solve them. The programme concluded that Vietnam required a legal environmental framework, especially for environmental
27
protection. Interestingly, environmental issues gained further traction with the introduction of i Mi, when environmental concerns accompanied the economic opening of the country (Bryant/Akers 1999). A first milestone was reached in 1992 when the National Plan for Environment and Sustainable Development 1991-2000: Framework for Action was approved. The plan was requested by the government and designed by Vietnamese scientists with international support. Based on prior work the plan provided the rationale for the development of a legal framework on environmental issues and the administrative structure for law implementation. The legal framework in the form of the Law on Protection of the Environment was passed in December, 1993 (Bryant/Akers 1999). The law was revised in 2005. In 2010, the Law on Environmental Protection Tax, in development since 2004, was passed. In sum, environmental considerations were always part of the developmental discourse and have resulted in corresponding policies. 3.2.2 The discourse on sustainable development Environmental concerns also ranked high on the agenda at the global level during the time when Vietnam began to initiate a legal framework for environmental protection. The Earth Summit was held in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil in 1992, where a Vietnamese delegation from the National Environment Agency, which was part of the Ministry of Science, Technology and Environment (in 2002 this became the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment (MONRE)) participated. The conference in Rio highlighted the interrelationships between the environmental, social and economic sectors and the need to integrate them in planning, calling nations to deploy strategies for sustainable development, the so-called Agenda 21. Agenda 21 was also endorsed by the Vietnamese government, a process that started in August 2000. In 2001, with international technical and financial support the project on Support to Formulation and Implementation of the Vietnam Agenda 21 was initiated. The project was carried out by the department of Science, Education, Natural Resources and Environment in MPI and aimed at giving guidance through capacity building, awareness raising and policy research for the development of Agenda 21 in Vietnam on the national and the local level (Pellini 2008). In August 2004 the Strategic Orientation for Sustainable Development (Vietnam Agenda 21) was approved building the legal foundation for a more comprehensive concept of development in government policies. Interestingly, (Pellini 2008) shows how Agenda 21 has actually influenced and is referred to in the Socio-eocnomic development plan for 2006-2010 (SEDP)3, where rapid and sustainable development is the approach to industrialization and modernization of Vietnam. This is evidence that the concept of economic growth was influenced by activities on the global level that led to enhanced awareness for environmental concerns and the beginning of a rethinking of the growth model in Vietnam. 3.2.3 The discourse on climate change The discourse on climate change is a very powerful discourse in Vietnam, because Vietnam is especially vulnerable to climate change and climate change is threatening the developmental achievements
3 presume that this is the same with the SEDS, because the wording in the SEDS 2001-2010 is the same, which is also rapid and sustainable development
28
made in the past. Although, the climate change discourse became important in the last ten years, government officials and researchers had already begun to be preoccupied with it in the late 1980s (Fortier 2010). Vietnam ratified the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in 1994, and the Kyoto Protocol in 2002. In December 2008, the national target program to respond to climate change (NTP-RCC) has been approved, which was drafted by MONRE the ministry responsible for climate policies. The NTP-RCC sets the foundation for responding to climate change through research, planning and communication. Its linkages to socio-economic planning and implementation are therefore less strong (Fortier 2010). However, the NTP-RCC highlights that an effective response to climate change is necessary to ensure sustainable development and it emphasizes the need to mainstream climate change into the socio-economic development strategies. Furthermore, it stresses the need to develop a low-carbon economy. Building on the NTP-RCC the National Climate Change Strategy (NCCS) was approved in December 2011. The NCCS is the policy document that builds the foundation for the implementation of a climate change response in Vietnam. Most notably, the NCCS considers a low-carbon economy and green growth as the guiding approaches for achieving sustainable development. To conclude, climate change has also significantly influenced how economic growth is conceptualized. Nevertheless, in the context of climate change the discussion on economic growth is not constructed in a way that does lead to a refraining from the objective of economic growth, quite the contrary, economic growth is seen as means to strengthen the capacity to deal with climate change and therefore is even more important (Fortier 2010). 3.2.4 Brief conclusion In summary, what can be seen from this short history is that economic growth is the prime objective and that the paradigm is beginning to shift in favor of environmental considerations. However, this shift is evolving only gradually. The concept of economic growth still retains some of its established characteristics that may not be compatible with the new concepts. The most notable characteristic here is that economic growth is expected to take place rapidly. As a result, discursive concepts like rapid and sustainable development are formed that inherit an immanent tension. Furthermore, the discourse on economic growth stays dominant in that the environment is discursively constructed in a way to support the imperative of economic growth. The next section will elaborate on the characteristics and structure of the discourse on green growth, green economy and green jobs, which resembles a similar discursive structure. 3.3 The characteristics and structure of the discourse on green economy, green growth and green jobs Green economy, green growth and green jobs (GE/GG/GJ) have entered the discourse in Vietnam only very recently. An accumulation of press references can only be found since late 2011. However, discussions on GE/GG/GJ have been very dynamic since then, the main reason being the development of the Vietnamese Green Growth Strategy (VGGS). In the course of the development of the VGGS several
29
conferences, workshops, consultations and discussions have been organized, which also was covered by the Vietnamese press. One characteristic of the discourse is that it is predominantly an expert discourse. The main stakeholders in the discourse are the ministry of planning and investment (MPI), which is the ministry responsible for sustainable development since early 2000 (Pellini 2008). The sustainable development office is located at MPI. Furthermore, the drafting of the VGGS was led by the General Department of Science, Education, Natural Resources in MPI. Other important stakeholders in this discourse are the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) that supported MPI in the process of the development of the VGGS. Furthermore, other parts of the Vietnamese government and related research institutes took part. With regards to the issue of green jobs, the International Labor Organization, the Ministry of Labor, - Invalids and Social Affairs (MOLISA), the Vietnam General Confederation of Labor with support of the Friedrich-Ebert Stiftung were active in the discourse. Three central discourse configurations mark the structure of the discourse, because they recur often in the discourse. There are three discourse configurations of importance. a) The problem configuration The problem configuration refers to the Old/past growth model which is linked with the attributes pollution/GHG emissions, energy-resource intensive, low level labor, and increase competitiveness. What can be seen here is that the past economic model is linked to major problems of the Vietnamese economy. Furthermore, as these wordings recur often in the discourse in this similar configuration, there seems to be agreement about this problem. Interestingly, there is no parallel discourse that tries to defend the old growth model. It can be concluded that returning to the old growth model is no option. b) The objectives configuration The objectives configuration refers to sustainable development linking it with maintain economic growth, restructure economy, environmental protection and response to climate change. These configurations highlight the objectives that a future growth model has to fulfill. It also shows how sustainable development is understood in the Vietnamese context. However, the discourse has so far not elaborated on the inherent tensions that exist in approaching all these objectives together. c) The solution/challenges configuration The last discourse configuration identified is the solution/challenges configuration that relates GE/ GG/GJ with solutions such as reducing pollution/GHG emissions, increase efficiency and productivity, address climate change. The challenges are lack of capital, technology and human resources. This configuration is the most interesting one, as it seems to be still flexible and open. In other words, this configuration is still discursively constructed and it is unclear what the results will be. Furthermore, this configuration is the main entry point for the discussion on Green Jobs.
30
4.
Conclusions The Way Forward in Greening i Mi

Vietnam has in the last decades passed through a quite remarkable transition process. A process
that has lifted Vietnam out of poverty and that has made Vietnam a middle-income country. However, i Mi, the development of Vietnam, is an ongoing process and given the results presented in the previous chapter the next challenge for Vietnam is to make the economic model more sustainable or in the words of the grand developmental narrative in Vietnam - green i Mi. The first chapter provided evidence that the current economic model is reaching its limits and it is not compatible with the challenges of climate change and environmental considerations. The past economic model underperforms regarding environmental indicators. Given the current trajectory, the model creates more problems and hinders economic growth in the future, because the surrounding conditions for its success have changed. To continue the path of the old economic model would risk the developmental achievements. As was showed in chapter 2, the Vietnamese government is in the process of building a foundation for a greener economy, which is to be praised. It shows that the government of Vietnam is already acknowledging the need to address these issues. However, Vietnam still retains policies that hinder the development of a green economy, as was highlighted in the energy sector and a framework for the creation of green jobs is, so far, not in place and therefore is a gap to be filled. Furthermore, past experiences highlighted the need to especially focus on the implementation process of these policies, which also shows that Vietnam is in need of effective governance tools. Furthermore, the policies for a green economy so far do not approach the problem of structural change that a transformation from brown to green economy will initiate. The third chapter has showed that a shift in the concept of economic growth can be observed and that the old economic model is not a viable option anymore. However, the discourse analysis has also showed that the objectives are quite clear, but that they also have immanent tensions that are not addressed yet. However, entry points for the discussion on the discourse on GE/GG/GJ exist and the discourse is evolving and still malleable. In summary, there is enough evidence to claim that enough momentum for a greening of i Mihas been generated recently and that the Vietnamese government needs to change the economic model and set up a foundation for a greener economy. As a consequence, environmental concerns in various form combined with economic growth rank high on the political agenda. How should the greening of i Mi be pursued? The study has identified three main tasks for the further development of Green Jobs in Vietnam. First of all, Vietnam needs a comprehensive approach towards Green Jobs, as there are no policies with a strategic approach in existence. This fits well with the state of the discourse on GE/GG/GJ that has created momentum and generated a window of opportunity to follow up on these. Here, the main stakeholder is MOLISA, as MOLISA is responsible for employment issues. Furthermore, the ILO and
31
UNIDO seem to be good partners as they are major supporters of Green Industry/Green Jobs initiatives. At last, the VGCL with the support of the FES can contribute to this initiative to provide input from the grassroots level from experiences of workers, as workers will be most affected from a transition to a green economy. Therefore, it is recommended that a comprehensive Green Jobs approach should also take into consideration the experience and situation of the workers, as they could either be agents for a structural change when properly integrated. Given the task of greening the production in the VGGS the trade union seem to be also an ideal partner to lead this endeavor. Secondly, there seems to be a need to support implementation efforts, as this is the weak spot in environmental governance in Vietnam. Here the leading ministry is MPI. MPI has also showed with the VGGS that there is a wide catalog of issues to address for Green Growth. Support to MPI could be given by building capacities on the local level for environmental governance or by developing innovative governance tools with MPI. However, given the background with Agenda 21 there is the need for more sustainable approaches on pursuing green growth. Thirdly, awareness rising is also a big issue, since awareness for environmental protection is still low in Vietnam, even on the governmental level. Initiatives that target youth groups would be very reasonable, as they are the next generation to support the environment and to create the Vietnam of the future. Lastly, the business voice is quite calm in the discourse on GE/GG/GJ. However, it is the business world that is mainly in charge of creating green jobs or greening existent jobs. Therefore, there is a need to include the business sector in this consideration and also a need to provide incentives for business development in green sectors. In sum, the actions in all these fields could further accelerate the development and implementation of a green economy in Vietnam. However, a caveat has to be added. Given the condition of the Vietnamese economy and its socio-economic structure, the approach taken should not be too idealistic in Vietnam, namely creating Green Jobs outright, since Vietnam is still in a transitional phase and still developing, which means that there are still many unbalanced areas, as has been showed with informal work, TVET, technology and still almost half of the population is employed in agriculture. In other words, it will be difficult to meet the two dimensions of green jobs in Vietnam. As a consequence, a greening approach is advocated that gradually adapts and greens the economy in Vietnam. Furthermore, the greening approach in Vietnam should focus on issues of structural change and also should try to exploit the comparative advantages and characteristics of Vietnam. Here, the development of greening approaches for the agricultural sector could be highly beneficial for Vietnam. Nevertheless, as has been highlighted in previous sections, there is much potential in Vietnam to green the economy and the current discourse on GE/GG/GJ shows that there is a window of opportunity for different stakeholders to further set the path for a green Vietnam. -------------------32
References Arkadie et. al 2010: Outline of JOINT COUNTRY ANALYSIS OF VIETNAM. Asia Business Council (ABC) 2009: Addressing Asias New Green Jobs Challenge. Asian Development Bank (ADB) 2011: Technical Assistance Report: Education and Skills for Inclusive Growth and Green Jobs.
Bryant/Akers 1999: Environmental Controls in Vietnam. Cling et. al. 2011: The informal economy in Viet Nam. Esty et. al. 2005: 2005 Environmental Sustainability Index. Benchmarking National Environmental Stewardship.
Fortier 2010: Taking a climate chance: A procedural critique of Vietnams climate change strategy. Gesellschaft fr international Zusammenarbeit (GIZ): Overview of renewable energy development in Vietnam. http://www.windenergy.org.vn/index.php?page=renewable-energy-in-vietnam.
Gesellschaft fr international Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) 2008: Technical and Vocational Education and Training (TVET) in Vietnam. A Brief Overview.
Jarvia/Varma 2011: Assessing green jobs potential in developing countries. A practitioners guide. Nguyen 2006: Designing Vietnams Socio-Economic Development Strategy for the 2011- 2020, Period. Should Changes Be Made in the Designing Process? Nguyen 2011: Information on wind energy of Vietnam. Pellini 2008: Drivers and Barriers for the Adoption of Global Sustainable Development Policies. A Review of the Experience with Agenda 21 and the United Nations Decade of Education for Sustainabel Development in Vietnam.
Quitzow/Br 2011: Asia at a Crossroads: New Trends in Environmental Governance in India, China, Vietnam and Indonesia.
The Socialist Republic of Vietnam 2012: National Green Growth Strategy. Decision No. 1393/QD-TTg. United Nations Development Program Viet Nam (UNDP) 2012: Fossil Fuel Fiscal Policies and Greenhouse Gas emissions in Viet Nam. Subsidies and taxes in Viet Nams energy sector, and their effects on economic development and income distribution in the context of responding to climate change.
United Nations ESCAP (UNESCAP) 2011: Statistical Yearbook for Asia and the Pacific 2011. United Nations ESCAP/ Central Institute for Economic Management (CIEM) 2009: Eco-Efficiency Indicators of Vietnam. An Analysis of Trend and Policy Implications.
33
Van 2012: Industrial Readjustment in Vietnam: Special Focus on the New 10 Year Socio-Economic Development Strategy for 2011-2020. Industrial Readjustment in the Mekong River Basin Countries: Toward the AEC.
Yale University: Environmental Performance Index. http://epiyaleedu/. The World Bank (WB) 2010: Vietnam Development Report 2011. Natural Resources Management
34
About the author Nguyen chi Quoc has a master in political science and philosophy from the Johann Wolfgang Goethe University Frankfurt/Main. He works as a consultant for NGOs and UN Agencies in Vietnam and other parts of Southeast Asia. His main working areas are: the social dimension of climate change, sustainability and green jobs. Furthermore, he provides expertise on qualitative empirical research and project development. He can be contacted under: Nguyenchiquoc@gmail.com.
35

Greening Đ I M I: An Outlook On The Potential of Green Jobs in Vietnam

Diunggah oleh

Informasi Dokumen

Judul Asli

Hak Cipta

Format Tersedia

Bagikan dokumen Ini

Bagikan atau Tanam Dokumen

Opsi Berbagi

Apakah menurut Anda dokumen ini bermanfaat?

Apakah konten ini tidak pantas?

Hak Cipta:

Format Tersedia

Greening Đ I M I: An Outlook On The Potential of Green Jobs in Vietnam

Diunggah oleh

Hak Cipta:

Format Tersedia

Greening I MI: An Outlook on the Potential of Green Jobs in Vietnam

Nguyen chi Quoc

Vietnams Economic Model and Its Impact on the Environment

Source: Molisa 2006a taken from (GIZ 2008)

Combus ble renewables and waste Hydro

0 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006

1200.0 1000.0 800.0 600.0 400.0 200.0 0.0

National w ide, as m3 per million VND constant GDP

Figure 2: Intensity of water use by economic sector Source: (UNESCAP/CIEM 2009)

Figure 3: Intensity of land use by economic sector Source: (UNESCAP/CIEM 2009)

70.0 60.0 50.0 40.0 30.0 20.0 10.0 0.0

Figure 4: Intensity of energy use by economic sector Source: (UNESCAP/CIEM 2009)

3.00 Index of w ater use by the sector

Index of energy use by the sector

Index of land use by the sector

Index of value added of the sector

7.00 6.00 5.00 4.00 3.00 2.00 1.00 0.00

4.00 3.50 3.00 2.50 2.00 1.50 1.00 0.50 0.00

Natio nal wide

P ublic and service secto r

Source: (Esty et. al. 2005)

Source: (Yale University last accessed 08.03.2012)

Table 5: ESI score Southeast Asian countries

Source:(Yale University last accessed 08.03.2012) compiled by author

Adjusted net saving approach

Box 1: Summary of incentives for renewable energy projects

Green jobs policies

Conclusions The Way Forward in Greening i Mi

Anda mungkin juga menyukai