Week 4: Group Dynamics

Amy Pate University of Maryland Ethnopolitical Organizations in the Middle East & North Africa and the Use of Violence

National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism

Why Study Violent and Non-Violent Groups?

Exclusive focus on organizations that engage in terrorism introduces selection bias. By including a control group of nonviolent organizations:
We can now ask why some organizations choose violence and terrorism and others do not We can ask why some groups start and why some groups stop using terrorism

National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism

Minorities At Risk Organizational Behavior

The MAROB project collects and analyzes data on organizations that have their core support in ethnic groups MAROB includes both violent and nonviolent organizations Currently, complete data available for the Middle East and North Africa, 1980-2004

National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism

Variables Collected
Organizational Characteristics (i.e., ideology, leadership, grievance) Organization-State Relations (i.e., repression, negotiations) External Support (e.g., foreign state, diaspora) Organizational Behavior (e.g., types, targets and location of violence)

National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism

Political Strategies over Time

50% 45%

40%
35% 30% 25% 20%

15%
10% 5% 0% 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Electoral Activity

Protest

Violence

National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism

Prevalence of Attacks on Civilians

20%

18%
16% 14% 12% 10% 8%

6%
4% 2% 0%

National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism

Why Attack Civilians?

Organizations professing a democratic ideology are significantly less likely to attack civilians Organizations with the following characteristics are more likely to attack civilians:
Separatism Rhetoric justifying violence Foreign Support State Repression

Organizations that do not have a democratic ideology and have all the factors above have an 89% likelihood of attacking civilians

National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism

Research Supported by:

Support for this research was provided by the National Science Foundation through Award# 0826886 and by the Science and Technology Directorate of the United States Department of Homeland Security (grant number 2008ST061ST0004) through the National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism (START).

National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism

Asal, V., and Wilkenfeld, J. Ethnic Conflict: An Organizational Perspective, 2 Penn St. J.L. & Int'l Aff. 91 (2013).

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