Interval Estimation
Large sample confidence interval for - known Large sample confidence interval for Small sample confidence interval for
x z / 2
< < x + z / 2
s s < < x + z / 2 x z / 2 n n
s s x t / 2 < < x + t / 2 n n
(a) What can we say with 99% confidence about the maximum error if is used as a point estimate of the actual average time required to do this job? (b) Use the given data to construct a 98% confidence interval for the true average time it takes to assemble the computer component.
E = z / 2
s s < < x + z0.01 n n 2.06 2.06 12.73 2.33 < < 12.73 + 2.33 40 40 11.971 < < 13.489. x z0.01
E = z / 2
F ( z / 2 ) = F (1.54) = 0.9382
Thus, we have 87.64% confidence that the sample mean does not duffer from the true mean by more than 30 seconds.
will be satisfied. Solving this quadratic inequality for p we can obtain a corresponding set of approximate confidence limits for p in terms of the observed value of x but since the necessary calculations are complex, we shall make the further approximation of substituting x/n for p in np(1 p) .
x z / 2 n
where the degree of confidence is (1 - )100%. Maximum error of estimate p(1 p) E = z / 2 n With the observed value x/n substituted for p we obtain an estimate of E.
But this formula cannot be used as it stands unless we have some information about the possible size of p. If no much information is available, we can make use of the fact that p(1 - p) is at most 1/4, corresponding to p = 1/2 , as can be shown by the method of elementary calculus. If a range for p is known, the value closest to 1/2 should be used. 2 Sample size (p unknown) 1 z
n= 4 E
/2
Test of Hypotheses
There are many problems in which rather than estimating the value of parameter we are interested to know whether a statement concerning a parameter is true or false; that is, we test a hypothesis about a parameter. To illustrate the general concepts involved in deciding whether or not a statement about the population is true or false, suppose that a consumer protection agency wants to test a paint manufacturers claim that the average drying time of his new fast-drying paint is 20 minutes. It instructs a member of its research staff to take 36 boards and paint them with paint from 36 different 1-gallon cans of the paint, with intention of rejecting the claim if the mean drying times exceeds 20.75 minutes otherwise, it will accept the claim and in either case it will take whatever action is called for in its plans.
0.0304
x Minutes 20.75 = 20 Accept the claim Reject the claim that = 20 that = 20
x Minutes
H is true H is false
If hypothesis H is true and not rejected or false and rejected, the decision is in either case correct. If hypothesis H is true but rejected, it is rejected in error, and hypothesis H is false but not rejected, this is also an error.
/ n
/ n
= F (.219) F (1.97)
= 0.4133 0.0244 = 0.3889
X 0 Z= / n
If z is such that the area under the standard normal curve to its right equals , the critical regions, namely, the sets of values of Z for which we reject the null hypothesis = 0, can be expressed as it following table: Alternative hypothesis Critical Regions for Testing = 0 (Normal population and known) Reject null hypothesis if: Z < - z Z > z Z < - z/2 or Z > z/2
< 0 >0 0
Z=
= 2.73
5. Decision: Since Z = 2.73 > 2.33, the null hypothesis that = 73.2 is rejected at the 0.01 level of significance. ************************************************* If = 0.05, the dividing lines, or critical values, of the criteria are 1.645 and 1.645 for the one sided alternatives and -1.96 and 1.96 for the two sided alternative. If = 0.01, the dividing lines of the criterion are 2.33 and 2.33 for the one sided alternatives and 2.575 and 2.575 for the two sided alternative.
X 0 Z= S/ n
Alternative hypothesis Critical Regions for Testing = 0 (large sample and unknown) Reject null hypothesis if: Z < - z Z > z Z < - z/2 or Z > z/2
< 0 >0 0
X 0 t= S/ n
Alternative hypothesis
Critical Regions for Testing = 0 (Normal population and unknown) One sample t-test
< 0 >0 0
Reject null hypothesis if: t < - t t > t t < -t/2 or t > t/2
x = 25 and s = 4.195
t=
S/ n