Mahindra & Mahindra 4

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MAHINDRA & MAHINDRA

THROUGH THE CHAIRMAN'S EYES
November 27, 2013 Price: INR 945.00 India [Automobile Manufacturers] Bloomberg: [MM IN] Market Cap: USD 9,329.30 m Outstanding Shares: 615.89 m Six Month Avg. Daily Trading Vol. (USD m): 20.96 52 Week High/Low: INR 1,025.87 / INR 740.15
HOLD
Mr Mahindra shared his views on how functioning as a conglomerate provides all verticals of the group scope to benefit from synergies and varied linkages. Further, it also creates an all important bed-rock for values and core purposes for the entire group. With most businesses functioning independently, it also creates an entrepreneurial spirit among business heads, which can be nurtured by easy access to resources. His vision is to create a large mobility brand where all segments (be it twowheelers, commercial vehicles, or UVs) come under the overall mobility ecosystem. This vision comes from past experience where both tractors and UVs benefitted from the huge commonalties in the backend. Despite the group initially starting out on a very low scale and with a lack of technology, these back-end synergies between farm and auto segments has helped them not only survive, but survive with higher return on capital than most global players. The commonalities in raw material procurement, research and development, engine design, skill set can be shared across the entire mobility ecosystem. For example, it now gets global synergies with Ssangyong (besides common sourcing, they are now jointly designing a new petrol engine). One of the key rationales for taking the group global is that it keeps them on their toes and hence helps them stay competitive, and ultimately survive. With all global players descending on India, Mr Mahindra was candid to share that the Group is definitely not safe in India if they are not competitive abroad. Hence, the plan will remain to go out and compete with the rest of the world as that is one of the best survival techniques.
Revenue (INR m) 442,918.00 389,447.00 383,566.00 313,811.00 235,641.00 EBITDA (INR m) 64,082.00 55,687.00 53,293.00 41,613.00 36,215.00 Net Profit (INR m) 44,103.00 38,222.00 36,344.00 29,970.00 26,870.00 EPS (INR) 67.10 58.20 53.90 44.00 39.20 PER (X) 14.10 16.20 17.50 21.50 24.10 EV/EBITDA (X) 9.60 11.20 11.70 15.30 17.60 Div. Yield (%) 1.80 1.60 1.40 1.30 1.10
YE MAR 2015E 2014E 2013A 2012A 2011A
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ANTIQUE STOCK BROKING LIMITED
FROM THE RESEARCH DESK
27 November 2013 | 4
Current Reco Previous Reco CMP Target Price
: HOLD : HOLD : INR945 : INR960
MANAGEMENT INTERACTION
Mahindra & Mahindra Limited

Through the Chairman's eyes
Mahindra & Mahindra hosted a call with chairman and managing director, Mr Anand Mahindra. He shared his views on the synergistic benefits from functioning as a conglomerate, competitive advantages of each vertical in a weak economic environment, and how his aspirations for globalisation of the group are actually more of a survival technique. The call reinforced our positive view on the group's ability to capitalise on the long-term growth opportunities. We have a Hold rating on the stock as the reasonable valuation (auto business at a P/E of 11.3x/9.8x FY14/15) is offset by a negative view on the company's current competitive cycle in utilityvehicles.
Potential Return : 2%
Ashish Nigam
+91 22 4031 3443 ashish.nigam@antiquelimited.com
Saksham Kaushal
+91 22 4031 3433 saksham.kaushal@antiquelimited.com
Key highlights from the call:

Synergistic benefits of being a conglomerate: Market data
Sensex Sector Market Cap (INRbn) Market Cap (USDbn) O/S Shares 52-wk HI/LO (INR) Avg Daily Vol ('000) Bloomberg
Source: Bloomberg
: : : : : : : :
20,425 Automobiles 582 9 616 1026/740 1,152 MM IN
Mr Mahindra shared his views on how functioning as a conglomerate provides all verticals of the group scope to benefit from synergies and varied linkages. Further, it also creates an allimportant bed-rock for values and core purposes for the entire group. With most businesses functioning independently, it also creates an entrepreneurial spirit among business heads, which can be nurtured by easy access to resources. Foraying into varied segments doesn't necessarily result in loss of focus: His vision is to create a large mobility brand where all segments (be it two-wheelers, commercial vehicles, or UVs) come under the overall mobility ecosystem. This vision comes from past experience where both tractors and UVs benefitted from the huge commonalties in the backend. Despite the group initially starting out on a very low scale and with a lack of technology, these back-end synergies between farm and auto segments has helped them not only survive, but survive with higher return on capital than most global players. The commonalities in raw material procurement, research and development, engine design, skill set can be shared across the entire mobility ecosystem. For example, it now gets global synergies with Ssangyong (besides common sourcing, they are now jointly designing a new petrol engine). Globalisation of the group - A unique survival technique: One of the key rationales for taking the group global is that it keeps them on their toes and hence helps them stay competitive, and ultimately survive. With all global players descending on India, Mr Mahindra was candid to share that the Group is definitely not safe in India if they are not competitive abroad. Hence, the plan will remain to go out and compete with the rest of the world as that is one of the best survival techniques. Weak economic cycle has thrown up opportunities for the Group: While the macro-economic environment is currently weak, the situation of the Mahindra Group isn't as bad. For example, IT (Tech Mahindra) has benefitted substantially from a weaker currency. The used car business (Mahindra First Choice) benefits in a price sensitive environment where buyers are tentatively allocating large capital. Tractors remain in an orbit of its own after the strong monsoon (the spill-over effects of which are yet to fully reflect in demand). With a weaker currency, Indian tourism (Mahindra Holidays) benefits from a temporary diversion in tourism from overseas travel to domestic. To some extent, even the automotive business has benefitted as the weak INR acts as an informal entry barrier for the overall manufacturing industry. Being a blue-blooded local player with high localisation levels, M&M has a competitive advantage against foreign original equipment manufacturers who are yet to ramp-up their vendor base in India.
Valuation
FY13 EPS (INR) PE (x) P/BV (x) EV/EBITDA (x)
Source: Bloomberg
FY14e 58.2 16.2 3.5 11.2 1.6
FY15e 67.1 14.1 3.0 9.6 1.8
53.9 17.5 4.1 11.7
Dividend Yield (%) 1.4
Returns (%)
1m Absolute Relative 9 10 3m 17 6 6m (2) (6) 12m 3 (7)
Source: Company, Antique
Shareholding pattern
Promoters FII DII Others
ource: Bloomberg
: : : :
25% 36% 17% 22%
Price performance vs Nifty

140 120 100 80 60 Nov-12 Mar-13 M&M
Source: Bloomberg
Jul-13
Nov-13 NIFTY
Pockets of growth in many international markets: While the Group's aspirations are global, it doesn't necessarily mean that they are exposing themselves to lower growth markets. For example, USA has been one of their fastest growing tractor markets as customers have been down-trading to relatively smaller Mahindra tractors. The alliance with CIE Automotive would bear fruit as the Spanish economy stands to emerge stronger after withstanding several austerity measures. Even Ssangyong's new line of lifestyle vehicles have benefitted from an evolving culture of weekend getaways among the South Korean youth. Hence, there are possibilities for grow in several global markets provided the right and relevant pocket of growth is recognised at an early stage.
We maintain our Hold rating!

While the call reinforced our positive view on the group's ability to capitalise on the long-term growth opportunities, we continue to have a negative view on the competitive cycle of the company's UV business. While their UV market share has already fallen to ~42% from ~55%, further market share loss looks inevitable. Till all competitors of strong repute haven't had their fair shot at this relatively untapped UV space, we would refrain from fathoming a guess about where M&M's UV market share will stabilise. We maintain our Hold recommendation with a target price of INR960 per share, owing to reasonable valuations - core auto business trades at a P/E of 11.3x/9.8x FY14/15e.
Our view:
UVs find the fancy of urban buyers (doesn't help M&M) What really kept the urban buyer away from the SUV space historically was the lack of an apt urban SUV in the market (Mahindra Bolero and Tata Sumo never fitted the bill). However, SUV as a product has found the fancy of the urban buyer, which is evident from the success of recent launches. Unfortunately for M&M, that's where the current growth is coming from. While the Mahindra brand (which is better associated in rural regions) is superbly equipped to counter competitors in Tier II and III cities, the brand conscious urban buyer might be swayed by an equally (if not more) competent product by a foreign OEM. UV market share
1.6% 3.3% 1.4% 19.7% 13.0% 1.8% 20.6% 13.2% 1.8% 19.0% 13.3% 14.3% 7.1% 6.0% 16.9% 8.0% 14.3% 5.3% 55.2% 53.7% 55.6% 11.2% 9.9% 17.2%
19.7%
17.0% 18.5%
20.3%
42.4%
47.1%
47.7%
42.0%
FY08
FY09
M&M
FY10
Tata Motors Toyota
FY11
FY12
Renault
FY13
Maruti
YTDFY14
Others (Ford/Chevy)
Source: SIAM, Antique
Mere upgrades may not be enough The Duster selling upwards of 5k units/month is a concern, given that the parent brand (Renault) is probably the weakest in India among all the foreign OEMs. It also makes us wonder what kind of numbers a similar product from a formidable competitor (Maruti, Toyota, Hyundai) might do. M&M's UV market share has fallen to 42% from 55% (gained by Maruti Ertiga, Renault Duster, Ford EcoSport) even as competitive pressures in the compact SUV space are at the tip of the iceberg. Besides the Ford EcoSport and Nissan Terrano, there are compact SUV launches expected from Maruti (XA-Alpha), VW (Taigun), Tata, Hyundai and Toyota over the next 2-3 years. On the other hand, M&M's product pipeline seems more skewed towards refreshments of existing UVs. To counter the upcoming competitor flurry, something like an XUV300 seems to be the need of the hour (mere refreshments of the Bolero, Scorpio, etc might not cut it with the urban buyer). While spy shots of the S101 (all new monocoque chassis; sub-four metre UV) looks to be a step in the right direction, it is to be expected only in FY16. We fear that might be too late. Tractors remain a ray of hope Notwithstanding the near-term concerns of over-capacity, the good monsoons should help maintain this buoyancy in tractors. For M&M in particular, should the lagging south Indian market recover, not only would it improve their market share (South India is their strongest market with a ~50% market share), but also improve their product mix and thereby margins (South India is a high horse power market).
Valuations/tractors the sole support to the stock Maintain Hold rating!

The auto business is facing issues which aren't exactly cyclical. Further market share loss looks inevitable. Till all competitors of strong repute haven't had their fair shot at this relatively untapped UV space, we would refrain from fathoming a guess about where M&M's UV market share stabilises. We maintain our Hold recommendation with a target price of INR960 per share owing to reasonable valuations - core auto business trades at a P/E of 11.3x/9.8x FY14/15e. SOTP Valuation
SOTP Core Auto Business (M&M + MVML) Value of Key Subsidiaries & Investments: (pro-rated) Ssangyong Tech Mahindra Mahindra Forgings M&M Financial Services Mahindra Lifespaces Mahindra Holidays & Resorts Total value of Key Subsidiaries & Investments Discount Holding company discount Net Value of Key Subsidiaries & Investments SOTP Value of Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd
Source: RBI, Antique
Methodology A Stake 70% 48% 53% 58% 51% 75% Market Value Market Value Market Value Market Value Market Value Market Value 10x FY15e Core EPS
Value (INRm) 417,610 53,191 100,722 2,197 85,374 8,318 16,114 265,916
Value per share 636 81 153 3 130 13 25 405 81 324 960
20% B A + B
53,183 212,733 630,342
Financials
Profit and loss account (INRm)
Year ended 31st Mar 2011
Revenues Expenses EBITDA Depreciation & amortisation EBIT Interest expense Other income Extraordinary Items Profit before tax Taxes incl deferred taxation Profit after tax Adjusted profit after tax Adjusted EPS (INR) 235,641 199,426 36,215 4,739 31,476 1,477 4,272 1,175 35,445 8,575 26,870 25,696 39.2
Key assumptions
2013 2014e
383,566 330,273 53,293 8,178 45,115 2,964 5,697 906 48,755 12,410 36,344 35,438 53.9 389,447 333,760 55,687 9,212 46,474 3,268 6,433 49,640 11,417 38,222 38,222 58.2
2012
313,811 272,198 41,613 6,699 34,913 2,874 4,735 1,083 37,858 7,887 29,970 28,888 44.0
2015e
442,918 378,836 64,082 10,772 53,309 3,431 7,398 57,277 13,174 44,103 44,103 67.1

UVs & UV Pick-ups Total Auto Volumes Tractor Volumes Total Volumes Growth: Auto Volumes Tractor Volumes Total Volumes 26.4 22.3 24.9 274,793 377,063 213,653 590,716
2012
354,967 483,246 235,452 718,698 28.2 10.2 21.7
2013 2014e
436,928 405,395 563,373 223,885 787,258 16.6 (4.9) 9.5 521,533 265,304 786,837 (7.4) 18.5 (0.1)
2015e
446,489 573,794 297,140 870,934 10.0 12.0 10.7
Cash flow statement (INRm)

EBIT Depreciation & amortisation Interest expense (Inc)/Dec in working capital 31,476 4,739 1,477 (8,498) (7,617) 21,275 (24,891) (15,682) 4,272 5,062 (7,423) (3,838) (11,283) 17,432 6,149
2012
34,913 6,699 2,874 4,548 41,702
2013 2014e
45,115 8,178 2,964 (21) 41,768 46,474 9,212 3,268 (5,139) 39,130 (13,073) 6,433 2,053 (11,529) (5,253) 18,227 12,974
2015e
53,309 10,772 3,431 471 (13,174) 51,378 (25,000) (18,302) 7,398 (35,904) 2,165 (13,067) (14,332) 1,143 12,974 14,1 17
Balance sheet (INRm)

Share Capital Reserves & Surplus Networth Debt Capital Employed Gross Fixed Assets Accumulated Depreciation Capital work in progress Net Assets Investments Current Assets, Loans & Advances Inventory Debtors Cash & Bank balance Loans & advances and others Current Liabilities & Provisions Liabilities Provisions Net Current Assets Deferred tax (assets)/liabilities Application of Funds 50,134 16,926 5,673 3,544 136,964 68,756 18,593 7,885 5,890 165,683 78,373 19,339 13,225 7,557 192,076 76,955 20,306 13,111 7,557 220,822 85,648 22,336 13,783 7,557 254,024 19,121 12,926 6,149 34,538 29,150 18,121 12,909 35,054 30,736 20,668 18,227 41,306 32,009 21,340 12,974 44,049 36,404 24,269 14,117 46,977 3,276 99,824 103,100 33,864 136,964 62,277 32,124 25,019 55,172 79,662
2012
3,285 119,574 122,859 42,824 165,683 94,277 38,823 13,362 68,816 94,872
2013 2014e
3,285 147,268 150,553 41,523 192,076 108,107 47,001 16,362 77,468 108,940 3,285 173,961 177,246 43,576 220,822 128,107 56,214 21,362 93,255 122,013
2015e
3,285 204,998 208,283 45,741 254,024 158,107 66,986 16,362 107,483 140,315
Tax paid CF from operating activities Capital expenditure Inc/(Dec) in investments Income from investments Inc/(Dec) in debt Others CF from financing activities Net cash flow Opening balance Closing balance
(5,541) (12,410) (11,417) (20,343) (16,830) (25,000) (15,210) (14,069) 4,735 8,961 (9,149) 6,760 6,149 12,909 5,697 (1,302) (9,992) 5,318 12,909 18,227
CF from investing activities (28,721)
(31,880) (25,202) (31,639)
(3,062) (14,257) (12,744)
Growth indicators (%)

Revenue EBITDA PAT EPS 26.7 22.5 28.7 14.3
2012
33.2 14.9 11.5 12.1
2013 2014e
22.2 28.1 21.3 22.7 1.5 4.5 5.2 7.9
2015e
13.7 15.1 15.4 15.4
Valuation (x)
P/E P/BV EV/EBITDA EV/Sales Dividend Yield (%) Core Auto P/E (incl MVML) Core Auto EV/EBIDTA Core Auto EV/Sales 24.1 6.0 17.6 2.7 1.1 16.6 11.8 1.8
2012
21.5 5.1 15.3 2.0 1.3 14.9 10.2 1.3
2013 2014e
17.5 4.1 11.7 1.6 1.4 12.1 7.7 1.1 16.2 3.5 11.2 1.6 1.6 11.3 7.4 1.1
2015e
14.1 3.0 9.6 1.4 1.8 9.8 6.3 0.9
Per share data

No. of shares (m) BVPS (INR) CEPS (INR) DPS (INR) 655.2 157.4 48.2 10.8
2012
656.9 187.0 55.8 12.5
2013 2014e
656.9 229.2 67.8 13.0 656.9 269.8 72.2 15.0
2015e
656.9 317.1 83.5 17.0
Margins (%)
EBITDA EBIT PAT Source: Company, Antique 15.4 13.4 10.9
2012
13.3 11.1 9.2
2013 2014e
13.9 11.8 9.2 14.3 11.9 9.8
2015e
14.5 12.0 10.0
Financial ratios
RoE RoCE Debt/Equity (x) EBIT/Interest (x)
Source: Company Antique
2012
23.5 26.0 0.3 12.1
2013 2014e
23.5 28.9 0.3 15.2 21.6 26.5 0.2 14.2
2015e
21.2 25.5 0.2 15.5
24.9 31.9 0.3 21.3
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