Forex Thread 1-15-08

Mac Forums - Anyone here into FOREX?
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Music_Producer
Anyone here into FOREX?
05-24-2006 08:50 PM
Just curious to see if there are any members here to dabble in the Forex markets.. :) How much of a loss/prot have you made?
Curren~Sea
Yes
06-21-2006 03:17 PM
Made lots... but I'm switching to a Mac and looking for a Mac trade station - any suggestions? Thanks.
~Shard~
06-21-2006 03:24 PM
The only time I ever did futures trading on Forex I made $20K in fteen minutes and then lost $15K ve minutes after that. :eek: That was enough of that. ;) :D So, nowadays I just stick to shorting indicies and doing covered calls and puts on the options market on the higher risk side of things. For the most part though, I just stick to trading stocks, doing limited partnerships, income trusts, ow-through entities, convertible debs and the like. I'm risky, but not reckless anymore. :cool:
OutThere
Quote:
06-21-2006 03:28 PM
Originally Posted by ~Shard~ The only time I ever did futures trading on Forex I made $20K in fteen minutes and then lost $15K ve minutes after that. :eek: That was enough of that. ;) :D So, nowadays I just stick to shorting indicies and doing covered calls and puts on the options market on the higher risk side of things. For the most part though, I just stick to trading stocks, doing limited partnerships, income trusts, ow-through entities, convertible debs and the like. I'm risky, but not reckless anymore. :cool:
Naturally. I do that too. ;) :eek:
Chundles
Fourex is crap.
06-21-2006 06:12 PM
1 of 13
1/15/08 8:07 PM
Awful tasting beer XXXX is, terrible stuff. You do know why they call it XXXX don't you?
It's because Queenslanders can't spell "BEER."
Music_Producer
Quote:
06-21-2006 07:34 PM
Originally Posted by Curren~Sea Made lots... but I'm switching to a Mac and looking for a Mac trade station - any suggestions? Thanks.
I currently use Oanda, they have the lowest spread for EUR/USD (1.5 pips) and it works with Safari (java based terminal) Its not that colorful as other forex trading software, but it works just ne and I've never experienced any glitches. Shard, well yeah, the market can move quite a bit within a few seconds, but I usually trade for a minute after breaking news, make about 6-10 pips and I'm out. I don't like to stay put after a trade because you never know when another central bank will buy millions and just wipe your account out :p
Curren~Sea
06-22-2006 08:36 AM
Oanda is a good rm. I am also considering Realtimeforex.com. However, I may stick with my current provider and run it in a Parallels window. As for the forex market being risky, I completely disagree. It's one of the most transparent markets out there. Risk is all about the person, not the market and with online currency trading, you have more control over the amount of risk you take than anything else that I know of. I encourage anyone interested in making money from their own home, from their own computer, on their own time, to consider forex trading. For years, I wondered how I could legitimately make money from my computer - and now I know.
njmac
Quote:
06-22-2006 06:39 PM
Originally Posted by Curren~Sea I encourage anyone interested in making money from their own home, from their own computer, on their own time, to consider forex trading. For years, I wondered how I could legitimately make money from my computer - and now I know.
Why does that sound like an infomercial? :rolleyes:
2 of 13
1/15/08 8:07 PM
You say you made lots from Forex trading - do you do it for a living or just as a side investment strategy?
Music_Producer
Quote:
06-23-2006 12:07 AM
Originally Posted by Curren~Sea Oanda is a good rm. I am also considering Realtimeforex.com. However, I may stick with my current provider and run it in a Parallels window. As for the forex market being risky, I completely disagree. It's one of the most transparent markets out there. Risk is all about the person, not the market and with online currency trading, you have more control over the amount of risk you take than anything else that I know of. I encourage anyone interested in making money from their own home, from their own computer, on their own time, to consider forex trading. For years, I wondered how I could legitimately make money from my computer - and now I know.
True, it all completely depends on the person trading and his/her trading skills.. and more importantly, his margin! When I was an 'emotional' trader, I would frequently get a margin call, but hey, you learn from your mistakes. Now I'm a better trader and I don't try to get greedy. I'm not sure what your strategy is, but I can never trade on a technical basis.. all those charting things never work (well most of the time) Atleast they sure didn't work for me.
Curren~Sea
06-23-2006 05:04 PM
If it were an infomercial then I would be trying to sell you a specic product or service, but I'm not. I would just like to see more people learn about the real deal. FX trading takes time, education, practice, and patience. Just like anything, the more time and effort you spend the better you will become. But, the nancial benets are worthwhile, therefore I pursue it. Most people (~80%) who try FX trading fail because they are just trying it out. It takes a more serious effort to succeed. I trade mainly longer term typically 1 day to 1 week. Short term traders are in and out within a few minutes but that doesn't work well for me. I trade mainly on chart patterns and the Elliott Wave - both systems qualify as technical analysis. Right now I'm a part-time trader and still holding down a full-time job but I see myself transitioning to a full-time trader within the next 12 months. I've been looking at the various Java based platforms and none of them look very good to me so I am likely to do the following: iMac on my desktop, my other 19" LCD on the desktop connected to my iMac. My old PC in the basement with a wireless card. Run Remote Desktop on the iMac and drag it over to my LCD and maximize it. I'll have my FX charts and trade station on the XP box/LCD. I think that'll work.
Chip NoVaMac
Quote:
06-23-2006 07:38 PM
3 of 13
1/15/08 8:07 PM
Originally Posted by njmac Why does that sound like an infomercial? :rolleyes: You say you made lots from Forex trading - do you do it for a living or just as a side investment strategy?
I wouldn't mind trying something that would give me an edge on doing the travel that I want. But my luck is bad. I could invest in a company that never has had a loss, and the stock has done double digits for 20 years (with no loss); and I would buy and the stock tanks in less than 6 months. :eek:
Music_Producer
Quote:
06-23-2006 07:52 PM
Originally Posted by Chip NoVaMac I wouldn't mind trying something that would give me an edge on doing the travel that I want. But my luck is bad. I could invest in a company that never has had a loss, and the stock has done double digits for 20 years (with no loss); and I would buy and the stock tanks in less than 6 months. :eek:
Hey Chip, the stock markets are absolutely different from currency trading markets. Any individual stock is susceptible to multiple failures - from rumors, bankruptcies (duh) and so on.. while currencies are relatively stable. I mean, when I bought 10,000 shares of Global Crossing, and it tanked from $1.50 to $0.30 in 2 days, that just put me off the stock market. You don't see the US $ dropping like that against the Japanese Yen. I just wait for signicant nancial news that come out at usually 5.30 am EST. For e.g. a few days ago, the Canadian CPI was supposed to come out at some 0.4% or something, can't remember.. but it came out to more than 2% or of that range. That was a huge number, so I immediately sold USD/CAD (sell US$ and buy Canadian $) Needless to say, the USD/CAD went down by 80 points and I made a nice prot, enough to buy maybe a Nikon D50 from you Chip :p That prot was all made in 10 minutes. I have made losses as well, especially when I do 'revenge trading' :D If I buy something like EUR/USD and the damn thing moves way down.. I buy some more EUR/USD to average out my buying price.. but its a vicious cycle. I don't do that kind of silly trading anymore, I just look out for important news and trade accordingly. June 29 will be a big one, the USD interest rates are supposed to go up by 25 points, but rumors are that it might go up by 50 points. That alone will move the market like crazy. Lets see..
Music_Producer
06-23-2006 07:54 PM
Curren~Sea, I use Parallels running windows xp on my macbook, connected to an external monitor. Works great, I don't use my amd laptop anymore at all. So maybe when you get a intel mac, you can just do everything on one system.
4 of 13
1/15/08 8:07 PM
Chip NoVaMac
Quote:
06-23-2006 08:05 PM
Originally Posted by Music_Producer Hey Chip, the stock markets are absolutely different from currency trading markets. Any individual stock is susceptible to multiple failures - from rumors, bankruptcies (duh) and so on.. while currencies are relatively stable. I mean, when I bought 10,000 shares of Global Crossing, and it tanked from $1.50 to $0.30 in 2 days, that just put me off the stock market. You don't see the US $ dropping like that against the Japanese Yen.
To show you my luck, my trip to Iceland in February is a good example. The US Dollar gained in the day leading to my trip by maybe 5%+ (given the costs there, this was good news). Once I arrived it went back down to like 63 Kornas to the US Dollar. Given that the lowest cost items (like a cup of Pepsi 12-16oz) was 200KIS, my cost was $3.17US. Would have loved having an extra savings of that 5%. :D Joking aside, I trust you that there is money to be made. Some of us though are not able to weather the ups and downs as well. From a nancial standpoint, as well as an emotional one. Heck, when I go to the casinos, I second guess what my loses would have bought me instead. My loses out weigh my winnings, but it is great to win.
Music_Producer
06-23-2006 08:58 PM
But there you go, the USD gained 5% and then went back down! thats not your luck Chip (yeah well, you just had to go to iceland when that happened huh? :p ) If you actually look out for news on the day the USD went up, there must be some nancial results at that time, for the USD to appreciate by 5%. Another thing I love doing is, earning interest on my funds. For e.g. lets say you have $1000 in your account, and a 50:1 margin. Oanda pays you interest every second, and the daily interest is posted in your account accordingly. So i buy 50,000 AUD/JPY (i.e. i borrow japanese yen and buy aussie dollar) I make about 5.2% interest on 50,000. Of course there will be uctuations in this currency for e.g. AUD/JPY will be 84 one day.. sometimes 85.. etc. Since the last month though, its been at an average of 84-85. As long as you have enougn money in your account to accomodate for the uctuations in currency levels, (I have factored in the variations for AUD/JPY from 59.9 to 89 - all from 1995-2006) you're good. I've made $216 in the last 30 days, in interest alone. $216/month on a $1000 investment ain't bad eh? :D This is, of course, because Japan has a zero interest policy. If they changed that to say 0.15% .. the Yen would appreciate considerably, and my AUD/JPY would go down. But it won't tank down to ridiculous levels, because thats just not possible. All currencies are inter-related, and they don't tank like stocks do. Just as your money is at stake, all the banks' money is at stake too .. and they intervene to halt such slides. Now if they had iceland krn/jpy , that would be fantastic, as the interest rate in iceland is 10-11% i believe?
njmac
I guess I'm just a little leery because of the Forex scams that are so prevalent.
06-23-2006 09:33 PM
5 of 13
1/15/08 8:07 PM
Anyone interested in Forex needs to do extensive research to see if it really is for them and is legit. Another option is to trade currencies in the future's market where that industry is the most regulated industry in the country.
Chip NoVaMac
Quote:
06-23-2006 09:35 PM
Originally Posted by Music_Producer $216/month on a $1000 investment ain't bad eh? :D
No, not bad for someone that has learned the hard way, by your own accounts. That I give congrats to you. I will explore this FOREX option, but some of us just feel that there is this dark cloud over us when it comes to making the best of any market. The only time I "won" was last year when I was forced to sell my TH. I lived there for 13 years or so. My "investment" remained at for most of my time there. It was only in the last 4 years or so during the "real estate bubble" that I gained anything of value in the property. My excess prots from the sale of the TH is in "safe" investments, that allow me to splurge on my desires. Would I like a greater return, heck yes! Am I willing to take a loss? For me at this time, no.
Music_Producer
06-23-2006 09:41 PM
Yup, real estate is the best investment, but you have to be patient. The recent gains we have seen in the last 2-3 years have already peaked. Rates won't go down (maybe a little) but not to the pre-boom rates. You may have to wait anywhere from 5 to 50 years for your real estate property to appreciate. Chip, I recommend you play with a "Forex Game" account, with virtual money. I played with a game account for 1-2 months, and then opened a real account with only $50. I used to make prots of 10-20 cents, loss, etc.. just for experience. As for forex scams, yeah, if you sign up with a shady company that has absolutely no listing.. of course you will get scammed. I mean, people get scammed with spoof emails all the time :rolleyes: I've seen several forex sites which look rather shoddy, so I stick with the big guys.
Chip NoVaMac Music_Producer

Quote: Quote:
06-23-2006 10:01 PM 06-23-2006 10:09 PM
Originally Posted by Music_Producer Thanks for taking theis time to respond. I will look in to these accounts to getgains betterwe knowledge and Yup, real estate the best investment, but you have to "game" be patient. The recent have seen Originally Posted by Chip NoVaMac skill in doing FOREX. the last 2-3 years have peaked. won't go down (maybe a little) but better not to the Thanks for taking the timealready to respond. I willRates look in to these "game" accounts to get pre-boom rates. Youin may have to wait anywhere from 5 to 50 years for your real estate property to knowledge and skill doing FOREX. I think I am seeing that you understand my personal biases and experiences. appreciate. I think I am seeing that you understand my personal biases and experiences. I sometimes look at the gains in the stock indices, and account, wonder why don't get in on Ia 2% gain for day. Chip, I recommend you play with a "Forex Game" withI virtual money. played with athe game Never mind the loss's ongains a day. account for 4% 1-2 months, and then opened a real account with only $50. I used to on make prots I sometimes look at the in:D the stock indices, and wonder why I don't get in a 2% gain of for 10-20 cents, loss, etc.. just experience. the day. Never mind the 4%for loss's on a day. :D Thanks for trying to educate us here. The "game" will tell us perhaps whether we have what it takes.
6 of 13
1/15/08 8:07 PM
Thanks for trying to educate us here. The "game" will tell us perhaps whether we have what it takes.
You're welcome :) I do understand your experiences, as mine are almost similar, but we should learn from our 'losses' and try and analyze them to death.. and change accordingly, instead of just letting it go as bad luck. Who knows, if you get good at it, maybe you'll make a million before Nikon actually has plentiful supply of the 18-200mm VR! :D
Chip NoVaMac
Quote:
06-23-2006 10:22 PM
Originally Posted by Music_Producer You're welcome :) I do understand your experiences, as mine are almost similar, but we should learn from our 'losses' and try and analyze them to death.. and change accordingly, instead of just letting it go as bad luck. Who knows, if you get good at it, maybe you'll make a million before Nikon actually has plentiful supply of the 18-200mm VR! :D
LOL From your lips to God's ears!:) What i haven't shared in this thread is my Depression Era parents values. That is why when I do have a loss, I go through such turmoil. I can never have fun in doing gambling because of the "values" that I was raised with. For I am ever haunted by - "what could you have done with that money". Sad really. :)
Curren~Sea
06-26-2006 10:16 AM
Real estate is usually a good investment if you buy right. Lots of people have lost fortunes in real estate, for sure. But for most people, when they buy their own home, that's the best investment they'll ever make. What I like about forex is that it has a substantially lower cost of entry. 1) you can start with a "game" or demo account which is free. 2) you can open a real account with as little as $300. 3) you can work on building your skill as a trader without jumping into the deep end. With real estate, you're in or you're out, there are not many opportunities to just dip your foot into the pool. And, unless you have a really good idea of what you're doing it can end up being a costly venture. My long term goal is to take the money I make from forex and invest it into real estate. One important key to remember is that forex trading is a skill. Like any other skill, if it is worth doing then it is worth doing poorly at rst until you become good at it. I think it would be difcult for someone who is new to try and make sense out of all the forex babble that's on the web right now. There is a ton of stuff out there and it is not very cohesive. I think it would be confusing to try and make sense of it all and come up with a good strategy. However, if you can hook up with a reputable company or a person who can set you on the right path, that would be the way to go.
7 of 13
1/15/08 8:07 PM
The rst book I would suggest is: Trade Your Way to Financial Freedom
Chip NoVaMac
Quote:
06-28-2006 09:06 PM
Originally Posted by Curren~Sea Real estate is usually a good investment if you buy right. Lots of people have lost fortunes in real estate, for sure. But for most people, when they buy their own home, that's the best investment they'll ever make. What I like about forex is that it has a substantially lower cost of entry. 1) you can start with a "game" or demo account which is free. 2) you can open a real account with as little as $300. 3) you can work on building your skill as a trader without jumping into the deep end. With real estate, you're in or you're out, there are not many opportunities to just dip your foot into the pool. And, unless you have a really good idea of what you're doing it can end up being a costly venture. My long term goal is to take the money I make from forex and invest it into real estate. One important key to remember is that forex trading is a skill. Like any other skill, if it is worth doing then it is worth doing poorly at rst until you become good at it. I think it would be difcult for someone who is new to try and make sense out of all the forex babble that's on the web right now. There is a ton of stuff out there and it is not very cohesive. I think it would be confusing to try and make sense of it all and come up with a good strategy. However, if you can hook up with a reputable company or a person who can set you on the right path, that would be the way to go. The rst book I would suggest is: Trade Your Way to Financial Freedom
Some of us bought our homes as mid to long term investments. I bought my TH back in '92. For about ten years it did not gain anything in real value or value in property taxes. Was feeling sick by this. Even as my neighbors and I sough to improve our properties. I was lucky to sell my TH for 3.5x my original purchase price. Much of that gain in just 5 years. But because of "debit" because of my signicant other - I could not afford to buy anything else that was compatible with my needs. Meaning that I don't want a 45+ mile commute. Or my not wanting a zero/down payment principal loan that might force me to be feed for the vultures down the road. We are being driven in to a class based society of the haves and have nots. Where those of of that provide services and goods that are not welcomed in the community we serve. I had a customer lament the high cost of housing in their new home purchase. I lamented that I was forced to give up on the idea of owning a home of my own. Their comment was I could always move to WV! :eek: Sorry, I never use the term here on MR - but WTF? :eek: Have we become so greedy that the notion of a "working community" is foreign to us? A Community in which the rich and poor are needed to make things work?
Hoef
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06-28-2006 09:23 PM
8 of 13
1/15/08 8:07 PM
Originally Posted by ~Shard~ The only time I ever did futures trading on Forex I made $20K in fteen minutes and then lost $15K ve minutes after that. :eek: That was enough of that. ;) :D So, nowadays I just stick to shorting indicies and doing covered calls and puts on the options market on the higher risk side of things. For the most part though, I just stick to trading stocks, doing limited partnerships, income trusts, ow-through entities, convertible debs and the like. I'm risky, but not reckless anymore. :cool:
Everytime investments comes up, ~Shard~ has his/her say .. I am almost calling for a mac user investment sub forum to exchange ideas. I generally trust mac users more than the average grapevine set at nance.yahoo.com :D . Please tell more about LP's.... I am very interested in that.
Chip NoVaMac
Quote:
06-28-2006 10:02 PM
Originally Posted by Hoef Everytime investments comes up, ~Shard~ has his/her say .. I am almost calling for a mac user investment sub forum to exchange ideas. I generally trust mac users more than the average grapevine set at nance.yahoo.com :D . Please tell more about LP's.... I am very interested in that.
There are always winners and losers in investments. I can only count my loss for not doing Apple in the past 5 years. What I know s what one is safe to lose. For some, it may be a good deal, For others it is very little. Who wins in then end is another matter....
Music_Producer
06-28-2006 10:12 PM
Today, or rather tomorrow (jun 29) is a HUGE day for Forex traders.. the interest rate decision comes out at 2.15 pm EST. Who knows how much they'll raise the interest rates by.. 25 basis points is expected.. but there are rumors of hiking it by 50 points. If that happens, buy the USD and sell it off for a quick prot. :D
Hoef
Quote:
06-29-2006 06:09 AM
Originally Posted by Music_Producer Today, or rather tomorrow (jun 29) is a HUGE day for Forex traders.. the interest rate decision comes out at 2.15 pm EST. Who knows how much they'll raise the interest rates by.. 25 basis points is expected.. but there are rumors of hiking it by 50 points. If that happens, buy the USD and sell it off for a quick prot. :D
Arghh sell your stocks...... :p
9 of 13
1/15/08 8:07 PM
Hoef
Quote:
06-29-2006 06:21 AM
Originally Posted by Chip NoVaMac There are always winners and losers in investments.
Hi Chip NoVaMac ... I ment it positive. I enjoy ~shards~ posts, we have similar interests
~Shard~
Quote:
06-29-2006 06:48 AM
Originally Posted by Hoef Please tell more about LP's.... I am very interested in that.
The LPs I'm involved with are real estate ventures - a few local businessmen have been developing and leasing properties, and have been looking for investors in the form of an LP, so it's been a pretty good deal I can honestly say I have part ownership in many of the buildings around town. ;) :cool: Basically all a Limited Parntership is, is two or more partners who join up to conduct a business jointly and in which one or more of the partners is liable only to the extent of the amount of money they have invested. As a limited partner, I do not receive dividends, but instead enjoy direct access to the ow of income and expenses. I've done quite well off these investments so far. I, too, would love to have a nance/investing/trading sub-forum here. :cool:
Curren~Sea
06-29-2006 10:58 AM
We all play the game of money, whether we like it or not. Unfortunately, not everyone learns the rules. I'm sure you've heard it before that the public school systems are generally void of any type of real world nancial training. This may sound incredibly simplistic but for most people the keys to growing your nestegg are discipline and planning. Some people have a great idea and become rich from it. Other people acquire highly desirable skills and it makes them wealthy. For the rest of us, we need to be prudent with our money and plan for the long term. My grandfather, rest his soul, was extremely risk averse. He went through The Depression and WWII and knew about hardship. However, on his modest salary he raised seven kids and managed to invest in a few blue chip stocks here and there that he just hung onto for many, many years. It made him a very wealthy man by the time he retired. +2% a year, +5%, -5%, +8%, etc... with compounding that adds up. The point is that most North Americans can probably afford to save, invest, plan, and be patient. The stock market isn't the only way to go, obviously. My preference is the currency market. There are many other vehicles, as mentioned. However, just working hard every day probably isn't going to cut it, nor will it allow you to retire comfortably or early. My plan is to consistently make 5-10% per month in forex and compound my earnings. Additionally, I am investing in real estate when I nd a good opportunity. Over time, this should provide good cash ow in the coming years.
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1/15/08 8:07 PM
Music_Producer
06-29-2006 07:06 PM
Just as I had stated in my previous post.. today was a chance to make a huge prot.. and luckily I did. The Feds raised the interest rates by only 25 bps, and there was 100 pip drop in the US$. Made about $800 (80 pips prot) in 15 minutes :D Had the Fed raised the interest rates by 50 bps.. the USD would have shot up instead..not for too long though, as that would have signalled the end of interest rate hikes.
Music_Producer
06-29-2006 07:07 PM
Hey curren~sea.. whats news alerting software do you have? I envy the Bloomberg users as they get their news rightaway.. and get in on the action much earlier than the rest of us!
Curren~Sea
06-29-2006 08:33 PM
Sounds like we had about the same kind of day :) I was underwater on a YEN sell that ended up being quite nice by the time I closed. I have news coming up on my trade station (FXCM News Plugin) but it is not reliably fast. I don't necessarily trade the news for quick pips. I tend to setup my positions based on bo's and the Elliott Wave. Interestingly enough, today matched exactly what my expectations were based on this analysis. A major announcement does not have to make me money during the announcement - it can make me money the following week or two. My feeling right now, however, is that we are establishing what our summer channel will be. And, we can make a lot of money on a 300-400 pip channel!
Chip NoVaMac
06-29-2006 09:00 PM
Can't help to feel that FOREX trading is like the "old" day stock trading. Meaning that unless you devote full time and attention to it, then one can have nothing to show for the efforts.
Countert
Quote:
06-29-2006 09:32 PM
Originally Posted by Chundles You do know why they call it XXXX don't you?
Let me take a crack at it: B-U-D-erm, ****. :(
11 of 13
1/15/08 8:07 PM
Music_Producer
Quote:
06-29-2006 10:11 PM
Originally Posted by Chip NoVaMac Can't help to feel that FOREX trading is like the "old" day stock trading. Meaning that unless you devote full time and attention to it, then one can have nothing to show for the efforts.
Not true at all Chip, but you might feel that if you're a beginner. Its very easy to get overwhelmed by all the movements of currencies (imagine looking at 10 currecny pairs.. all moving differently at the same time, in real time) , looking at the charts, the news, etc etc.. and of course, people like me chatting :D You have to narrow it down to the currency pair that you feel comfortable with.. most of the times I only trade EUR/USD. So there's only one pair on my screen, and one chart. I trade on news releases.. so I almost never look at the charts at all. And for the full time and attention bit, I logged into my forex account 15 minutes before the interest rate announcement.. took my prot of 80 pips, and logged out. That was it! I don't have my forex account active right now.. I will log in later on tonight, when the UK GBP is released. Yes, when I was a n00b, I used to sit in front of the computer ALL day.. watching everything, quite bewildered with what was going on. And all those graphics tempt you quite a bit to 'sell' or 'buy'.. but you have to be practical. DON'T listen to your gut feeling.. that never works. Trust me Chip, I spend more time out here on macrumors and with my Nikon than on Forex :D
Hoef
06-30-2006 09:53 PM
Music Producer & Curren~Sea .... Give us also downsides... you can't make money all the time. A good trade seems to bring in $800... What does a bad trade do and how many positive trades do you have over bad?
~Shard~
Quote:
06-30-2006 10:04 PM
Originally Posted by Hoef Music Producer & Curren~Sea .... Give us also downsides... you can't make money all the time. A good trade seems to bring in $800... What does a bad trade do and how many positive trades do you have over bad?
That's the million dollar question with a lot of investors I know. They're more than willing to tell you about their wins, however they never seem as eager to tell you about their losses. ;) I'm always honest in all my results if anyone asks, whether it be gains or losses. (Not saying these guys are like that either, btw, just making a general comment...)
njmac
Quote:
07-01-2006 04:57 AM
12 of 13
1/15/08 8:07 PM
Originally Posted by ~Shard~ That's the million dollar question with a lot of investors I know. They're more than willing to tell you about their wins, however they never seem as eager to tell you about their losses. ;) I'm always honest in all my results if anyone asks, whether it be gains or losses. (Not saying these guys are like that either, btw, just making a general comment...)
coincidently, that's the same question gamblers try to avoid. They love talking about their big wins, but losses, eh... they'll make them up next round of course!
~Shard~
Quote:
07-01-2006 07:49 AM
Originally Posted by njmac coincidently, that's the same question gamblers try to avoid. They love talking about their big wins, but losses, eh... they'll make them up next round of course!
Exactly - there are many parallels when it comes to investing and gambling. And I have seen similar "tactics" as well, as you eluded to - chasing losses, trying to "make it up", "doubling down" in some cases... quite intriguing... :cool:
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njmac
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07-01-2006 12:18 PM
Music_Producer
Quote:
07-01-2006 02:54 PM
Originally Posted by Hoef Music Producer & Curren~Sea .... Give us also downsides... you can't make money all the time. A good trade seems to bring in $800... What does a bad trade do and how many positive trades do you have over bad?
Sure, I've lost about $3,000 (in 2005) and made over $15,000 in Forex. There are always ups and downs, but you restrict your losses with 'stop-loss' limits. Luckily, (or rather, by using my head) I haven't hit a stop loss in the last two months. I lost those $3000 because I was a newbie, and I didn't have a clue what I was doing! More like "Oh.. today the chart is going up.. so maybe it will go down tomorrow.. let me buy this" or I would buy/sell based on other people's suggestions.. or even 'software alerts' which I would subscribe to for $99/month. :D ON top of that, I used to "Revenge Trade".. if i bought EUR/USD.. and it went down by 50 pips .. I would get mad and buy more EUR/USD to reduce my losses.. but then the bugger would go down another 50 pips! I didn't look at the reason why the EUR/USD was going down.. no wonder I made losses. And I didn't implement stop loss limits either. All these are stupid mistakes which EVERY trader makes. The thing is, once you lose $2000-$3000.. you're scared and you never want to do it again. And I didnt.. for a year.. until I came back, got myself a 'game' account and started trading logically. Since the day I opened my account 2 months ago, I haven't had a single loss. I can't say the same about the stock market.. I've lost $80,000 in stocks because of Enron/Worldcom like bastards. That doesn't happen in currency markets.. its a currency, not a stock. Its not managed by a bunch of greedy corporate jacks.. and it doesn't go from $30 or whatever to $0.30!
Hoef
Quote:
07-01-2006 05:15 PM
Originally Posted by Music_Producer but you restrict your losses with 'stop-loss' limits. Luckily, (or rather, by using my head) I haven't hit a stop loss in the last two months.
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Thanks .... good info. So you keep money at stake for longer times (rather than in and out quickly)?
Music_Producer
Quote:
07-01-2006 07:28 PM
Originally Posted by Hoef Thanks .... good info. So you keep monay at stake for longer times (rather than in and out quickly)?
Oh no.. the maximum amount of time that I spend on a trade is 1-5 minutes. Let me give you an example: Canadian CPI (Consumer price index) is expected to be 0.6% and the exact numbers will come out at 8.30 am EST. Now if the CPI is >0.6%.. the CAD (canadian dollar) will go up against the USD. If the CPI numbers are low.. then the CAD goes down against the USd.. remember, all this happens really fast. If the CPI comes out to exactly as estimated, then I don't do anything. Since I'm in California, I'm up at like 5.15 am :mad: . and I set up my macbook, and parallels running win xp before the 5.30 am news announcement. By 5.27 am I'm absolutely concentrated in front of the computer, with a trade open (5000 units of USD/CAD).. and my nger ready on the trackpad.. I will hit either 'buy' or 'sell' depending on the CPI number. At 5.30 am the Canadian CPI on my win xp news screen comes out to 2%. Thats way more than the expected 0.6% .. so I hit 'sell' rightaway(I'm selling the USD/CAD which means sell USD and buy CAD). In the next few seconds, the Canadian dollar goes up by 50 pips (or conversely, the USD goes down by 50 pips against the CAD). I don't want to be too greedy.. so I hit 'close' and I make my prot of 50 pips. Depending on how much money you put, 1 pip = 1 cent or 10 cents or 1$ or 100$ or 10000000000$ :D Sure, the CAD went up still more by about 20-30 pips after I closed my trade.. but I'm happy with the prot I made. I usually try to make about 5 pips prot (everyday) so a prot of 50 pips is great. The funny thing is, even before I hit 'sell' I can see on the charts that the CAD went up by 30 pips (at exactly 5.30 am)! Why is this? Did someone get the news before I did? Yup, the investment ofcers who subscribe to Bloomberg news services ($1500 or something per month) get the news instantly.. and they get to make way more pips than I.. or the average trader does. Read my earlier post about the US interest rate decision.. I mentioned if they raised it to 50 points.. the USD would rise like crazy.. but they raised it only by 25 points.. which was highly expected. That wasn't good news for the US$ (good news for the stock markets though.. stocks and currencies are quite different in trading terms) The USD dropped by 100-150 pips against other currencies. This is how I trade.. I'm in a trade for no longer than a few minutes. Other traders use charting, technical analysis.. etc. But honestly, I don't have the time and the patience to read a chart and start plotting. I can never understand the logic behind predicting where a currency is going to go based on charts. I mean, you can't predict what will happen to oil prices by looking at a chart, right? Atleast I can't. On the other hand, if the US invades Iran, then oil will shoot up to $100 per barrel and all your charting logic will y outta the window. When you open a Forex account, you have to be careful about the margin they give you. When I rst started, I had a 200:1 margin, and $300 to start with. So I could buy $600,000 with that $300.. and obviously, when the market moves against you.. you lose your money that fast.. and I wiped out my $300 in 5 minutes! Thats because I had no clue what my margin was, what a margin call was.. etc. etc. Now I do, and my account is set at 50:1 margin. If you have $1000 sitting in your forex account, don't use all of it on one trade.. keep $500 as a backup.. to
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accomodate a margin call. But you *shouldnt* get a margin call in the rst place, thats why you should always employ stop-loss. My stop loss is set to 10 pips. The best advice I can give you is : 1. Don't trade emotionally.. always use your brains, and know nancial terms, or rather economic terms like CPI, PPI, Interest rates, Unemployment numbers, Jobless claims, New Home Sales.. etc.. all these affect currencies. 2. Use a Forex demo or game account.. they give you $50,000 'virtual money' Treat is as though its real.. people have a tendency to bet all $50,000 on a trade.. and then if they make a prot they get excited and open a real account.. and lose their money. 3. Trade with the game account for atleast 2-3 months, and see what mistakes you've made. See how a news release affects the currency. You can have great US job results at 8.30 am EST, but if the news conicts with some news regarding terrorism (e.g. some bomb blast in new york at the same time) then don't trade! 4. always use a stop loss.. your goal is to make prot.. and not to *wait* for it to happen. If you know what you're doing and you're condent.. then you *will* make a prot. If you made a mistake, then atleast the stop loss will limit your losses. 5. If you make enough prot, you can always buy me a beer :D
Chip NoVaMac
Quote:
07-01-2006 08:11 PM
Originally Posted by Music_Producer Oh no.. the maximum amount of time that I spend on a trade is 1-5 minutes. Let me give you an example: Canadian CPI (Consumer price index) is expected to be 0.6% and the exact numbers will come out at 8.30 am EST. Now if the CPI is >0.6%.. the CAD (canadian dollar) will go up against the USD. If the CPI numbers are low.. then the CAD goes down against the USd.. remember, all this happens really fast. If the CPI comes out to exactly as estimated, then I don't do anything. Since I'm in California, I'm up at like 5.15 am :mad: . and I set up my macbook, and parallels running win xp before the 5.30 am news announcement. By 5.27 am I'm absolutely concentrated in front of the computer, with a trade open (5000 units of USD/CAD).. and my nger ready on the trackpad.. I will hit either 'buy' or 'sell' depending on the CPI number. At 5.30 am the Canadian CPI on my win xp news screen comes out to 2%. Thats way more than the expected 0.6% .. so I hit 'sell' rightaway(I'm selling the USD/CAD which means sell USD and buy CAD). In the next few seconds, the Canadian dollar goes up by 50 pips (or conversely, the USD goes down by 50 pips against the CAD). I don't want to be too greedy.. so I hit 'close' and I make my prot of 50 pips. Depending on how much money you put, 1 pip = 1 cent or 10 cents or 1$ or 100$ or 10000000000$ :D Sure, the CAD went up still more by about 20-30 pips after I closed my trade.. but I'm happy with the prot I made. I usually try to make about 5 pips prot (everyday) so a prot of 50 pips is great. The funny thing is, even before I hit 'sell' I can see on the charts that the CAD went up by 30 pips (at exactly 5.30 am)! Why is this? Did someone get the news before I did? Yup, the investment ofcers who subscribe to Bloomberg news services ($1500 or something per month) get the news instantly.. and they get to make way more pips than I.. or the average trader does. Read my earlier post about the US interest rate decision.. I mentioned if they raised it to 50 points..
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the USD would rise like crazy.. but they raised it only by 25 points.. which was highly expected. That wasn't good news for the US$ (good news for the stock markets though.. stocks and currencies are quite different in trading terms) The USD dropped by 100-150 pips against other currencies. This is how I trade.. I'm in a trade for no longer than a few minutes. Other traders use charting, technical analysis.. etc. But honestly, I don't have the time and the patience to read a chart and start plotting. I can never understand the logic behind predicting where a currency is going to go based on charts. I mean, you can't predict what will happen to oil prices by looking at a chart, right? Atleast I can't. On the other hand, if the US invades Iran, then oil will shoot up to $100 per barrel and all your charting logic will y outta the window. When you open a Forex account, you have to be careful about the margin they give you. When I rst started, I had a 200:1 margin, and $300 to start with. So I could buy $600,000 with that $300.. and obviously, when the market moves against you.. you lose your money that fast.. and I wiped out my $300 in 5 minutes! Thats because I had no clue what my margin was, what a margin call was.. etc. etc. Now I do, and my account is set at 50:1 margin. If you have $1000 sitting in your forex account, don't use all of it on one trade.. keep $500 as a backup.. to accomodate a margin call. But you *shouldnt* get a margin call in the rst place, thats why you should always employ stop-loss. My stop loss is set to 10 pips. The best advice I can give you is : 1. Don't trade emotionally.. always use your brains, and know nancial terms, or rather economic terms like CPI, PPI, Interest rates, Unemployment numbers, Jobless claims, New Home Sales.. etc.. all these affect currencies. 2. Use a Forex demo or game account.. they give you $50,000 'virtual money' Treat is as though its real.. people have a tendency to bet all $50,000 on a trade.. and then if they make a prot they get excited and open a real account.. and lose their money. 3. Trade with the game account for atleast 2-3 months, and see what mistakes you've made. See how a news release affects the currency. You can have great US job results at 8.30 am EST, but if the news conicts with some news regarding terrorism (e.g. some bomb blast in new york at the same time) then don't trade! 4. always use a stop loss.. your goal is to make prot.. and not to *wait* for it to happen. If you know what you're doing and you're condent.. then you *will* make a prot. If you made a mistake, then atleast the stop loss will limit your losses. 5. If you make enough prot, you can always buy me a beer :D
Dooh! You may have lost some of us. Keep in mind some of us are used to stocks. And we hear about future products and such. I mean how many of us don't wish that we had jumped on Apple over the past few years. You are talking about short trading for those of us that have basic knowledge of the stock market. Between those of you in the "know"; how did you fair in the Fed's rate increase? And how did you hedge your bets?
Music_Producer
Quote:
07-01-2006 09:23 PM
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Originally Posted by Chip NoVaMac Dooh! You may have lost some of us. Keep in mind some of us are used to stocks. And we hear about future products and such. I mean how many of us don't wish that we had jumped on Apple over the past few years. You are talking about short trading for those of us that have basic knowledge of the stock market. Between those of you in the "know"; how did you fair in the Fed's rate increase? And how did you hedge your bets?
Sorry Chip.. I tried to make it as simple as I could.. but I guess I got carried away :rolleyes: Just visit this link, it will explain the basics : http://www.fxcm.com/what-is-forex-trading-overview.jsp For now, let me try teaching :p In the stock market, you're dealing with one stock.. and not pitting it against another. For e.g. you bought AAPL at 28.. and you sold it at 60. With currencies, they are all paired. Lets take EUR/USD for example. So when I "Buy" EUR/USD.. I am buying Euros and selling dollars. If I "Sell" EUR/USD then I'm selling Euros, and buying dollars. One currency is always the 'base' currency.. EUR/USD will always be EUR/USD and never USD/EUR. Lets take USD/JPY. If you want to buy dollars, you just buy USD/JPY. If you want to sell dollars, you sell USD/JPY. If you want to buy Yen, you SELL USD/JPY and if you want to sell Yen, you BUY USD/JPY. Get it? Come on, tell me you get that :D Its a lot easier than taking a panorama pic with crazy exposures!!!! :p Just like in the stock market, when you buy something at a low price, and sell it at a higher price.. you make a prot. Similarly, you can 'short' or sell a stock at a high price.. and later on, buy it at a lower price to make a prot as well. The example I gave about the Canadian CPI was that of fundamental trading.. or trading on the news. As for the interest rate decision, if the Feds had raised it by 50 points, I would have bought the USD, because I know its going to go up. How do I do this? I "sell" the EUR/USD ..which means I am selling euros and buying dollars. Now they raised it by only 25 points. And this was absolutely anticipated. The markets had already 'factored' this in their trading.. but they were hoping for more. There were even rumors of a 50 point raise. So when it came out 25 points, the markets were disappointed, and the USD dropped. Additionally the Fed chairman didn't sound too worried about ination. Had he said "Ination is a denite risk and we will raise the interest rates again" etc etc the USD would have gone up. Which is why i traded a couple of seconds after the news.. to see what the Fed chairman had to say about the dollar. The same thing happened almost a month ago, when the ECB (the european feds) raised the Euro interest rates. They raised it by 25 points.. and that was already expected.. and the EUR dropped by 300 points against the USD (gradually.. not in one day) Here's a tip Chip.. whenever the next interest rate thing comes up.. I'll let you know.. have your demo or game account ready. Wait for the news, and if the interest rates are raised as per expectations.. see what happens. Also, look at the chart (a 5 second interval chart) and you will see the reaction immediately. The
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chart will begin to move upward/downwards depending on the news.. and you will know how the market has reacted. To make this simpler, I am going to paste a picture of my trade regarding the GBP/USD (british pound vs dollar) I did this trade on friday morning.. or thursday i'm not sure. I think it was friday morning. The GBP GDP numbers were to come out at 4.30 am EST.. quarterly and yearly. They came out better than expected, and bam! The GBP started rising against the US dollar. In the picture, see those two triangles? The blue one on the bottom, is where i bought the GBP.. the orange one on the top is where i sold it and made a prot of 7 pips. If you look at the chart, the GBP went up waaaaaaay more after I sold it.. I could have made a prot of 70 or more pips.. but its ok. I like to get in and out fast.. I don't like surprises.
As a newbie, I recommend you do NOT trade when interest rates decisions are announced. Just watch.. and the forex news ticker will let you know of analysts' expectations, etc. Its like a 'chatter' when they expect how much rates are expected and so on. If I told you that Hey Chip, I'll raise interest rates in August by 25 points. You say Ok.. cool. As july and august pass.. there are signs of increasing ination, and its clear that I should raise rates by 50 points if i want to control ination. But I dont.. I stick to what I said and I raise it by 25 points. The market thinks thats crap, because it wont control ination at all. so the USD dives. I would suggest that you trade on smaller news.. like Jobless claims, home sales, retail sales, etc etc. Once you're seasoned.. you will *know* how the market will react when it comes to interest rates decisions. I personally love trading on interest rates decisions because currencies move by a huge margin - 100-300 pips..so thats an opportunity to make a lot of prot. I'm sorry if I can't explain this that well.. I should be there in person. Anyway, visit that link I posted, and check out the basics. And don't pick up a book on forex from your bookstore.. they're crap!
~Shard~
07-01-2006 10:36 PM
Just wanted to say thanks for that excellent post Music_Producer. As a "seasoned investor" myself, I appreciate you sharing such information and in such detail. It's great to see fellow investors here on MacRumors so that we can engage in such discussions - and hopefully help someone while we're at it. :cool:
Music_Producer
07-01-2006 11:48 PM
Oh yeah, you're more than welcome! All the ne folks here are always willing to help when I have a mac problem or a rather retarded question.. so I'm always ready to give back.. and more. :) Now if you're a PeeCee user on the other hand.. hehe :D
Hoef
07-02-2006 01:10 PM
Excellent posting Music_Producer!! So you trade the moment the news becomes available to you and not before ?.... (which is more like betting on the news I suppose). What news product are you using again? Obviously a windows product :D At work I use reuters sometimes. I wish I had it at home....
Music_Producer
07-02-2006 03:59 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hoef Excellent posting Music_Producer!! So you trade the moment the news becomes available to you and not before ?.... (which is more like betting on the news I suppose). What news product are you using again? Obviously a windows product :D At work I use reuters sometimes. I wish I had it at home....
Exactly, I trade as soon as the news comes out. I never trade before.. that would be betting or gambling, just like you said. I use Tradethenews.com.. they offer a $39.99 per month service (text only) and yeah.. its windows only.. which is why I use parallels. But like I mentioned earlier, keep the chart open (5 second interval) Lets say the news is supposed to come out at 8.30 am. At exactly 8.30 am *before* YOU get the news, the chart moves up or down.. so those investment ofcers have already got it before you. Another few seconds and *ping* you get the news alert, and its still not late to jump in. Also, you have to make sure you're trading on some good/bad news. If jobless claims come out as expected, then don't trade.. you need a strong deviation for the market to really move like crazy. Even a 0.2% deviation in most cases works. There are about 15 important economic releases per month, so you can practice quite a bit. It all depends on how early you can wake up! (if you're on the west coast) Hopefully one day I will subscribe to bloomberg News Anywhere .. its $1750 per month :eek: I'm sure I will be able to afford it based on my prots.. but its just.. paying that much money for just news when I could buy a macbook with that every month!! :p
Music_Producer
One more illustration..
07-02-2006 04:24 PM
The last trade I placed was the EUR/USD before the US interest rate announcement. I am pasting the graph of my trade, and I have added those arrows and numbers in photoshop:
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1. This is where the professional traders who subscribe to Bloomberg News Anywhere got the interest rate alert, and started buying Euros by the bucket. 2. This is where I (poor average trader) got the news and jumped in. 3. This is where I got out (like maybe 5 seconds from the entry) 4. This is where I wish I had gotten out!! :D Honestly though, I prefer to make a small prot and get my butt outta there.. because the market is really volatile. Its fun to 'ride' the wave though. The total from point 1 to point 4 is almost 300 pips. If you had $2500 and a 50:1 margin, and bought 100,000 units of EUR/USD when the news broke.. and exited at the top.. you would have made $2480 on that $2500. Not bad huh? :p If you had a 200:1 margin, and bought 500,000 units.. you would have made $12,400 :eek: :eek:
~Shard~
07-02-2006 06:27 PM
Just wanted to say thanks ponce again for all this Music_Producer - it's appreciated. As I said earlier, although I'm not currently into Forex, I'm big into investing myself, so if you ever want to chat, discuss strategies, "hot tips" and so forth, please don't hesitate to PM me. :cool:
njmac
Quote:
07-02-2006 06:45 PM
Originally Posted by Music_Producer Hopefully one day I will subscribe to bloomberg News Anywhere .. its $1750 per month :eek:
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If you get to that level, where the $1750.00 price tag makes you more money to recoup that, do you still stay with your trading platform, or is there a more direct way to trade that gets orders lled quicker and more accurate at a better price? You sound passionate about this and you have given a great run down of what its like to trade forex, but it still makes me nervous that it is an industry that is so rife with fraud and get-rich-quick schemes. That being said, I'm glad your doing something that makes your money work for you. I believe that is the only way to get ahead in this world and believe it or not, most people have a plan to get wealthy. The lottery. Very sad. Good luck, and thanks for such detailed info. ALSO: you trade on news, is there news to trade on every day or is it more like monthly?
Music_Producer
You're welcome Shard.. I'll surely bug you when I need more investment ideas :D
07-02-2006 07:39 PM
njmac.. I'm passionate about Forex because its worked for me.. just like I'm passionate about macs! As for the fraud part, I would guess that every industry has its share of that. As long as you trade with a reputable dealer, I don't see why you should be screwed. Currency trading probably goes back way before the stock markets ever came into existence. The thing that really got me interested was that our banks trade Forex all the time. Yup! Bank of America, Citibank, etc.. use our money and invest in Forex (which is where investment ofcers and the big money management companies come in) and sheesh.. with their balances.. even a few pips equals millions of dollars in prot. I think I'll still stay with my trading platform, because its as good as a direct instant trading platform and the pip spread is xed. The minute I hit 'buy' or 'sell' the order gets lled. There's no waiting.. no lag.. nothing. As long as you have a decent internet connection, you're ne. How do these forex brokers make money? They make their money on pip spreads. for e.g. the EUR/USD is 1.2500.. if i want to buy it.. i get it for 1.2503 (they make 3 pips) and if i want to sell it, the price i sell it at is 1.2497.. you get the idea. Some forex brokers charge crazy pip spreads.. and they are not 'xed'. When important news releases come out..they jack up the pip spread to 6-10 pips because they know thats when people will trade the most.. and thats really not fair..but the average trader doesn't know this. (the average newbie trader just looks at the charts and all the blinking lights.. and trades on 'gut feeling' or on what various forex forums have suggested) As for trading on news, just go to a good forex site like www.oanda.com and download the economic calendar for the month of July. Its a pdf le I believe, and print it out. It has a summary of countries, the economic indicators to be released, the dates and the time (in GMT) You don't have to sit in front of the computer all day, just see when the news release is expected to be announced.. and be prepared for trading on that day.. at that time. I don't trade everyday.. more like 15 days in an entire month. It greatly helps if you understand economic indicators and what they do to currencies. You can look for that online.. at the US Department of Labor website as well.. there's a nice explanation of everything.. jobless claims, wholesale price index, gdp, ination, etc etc. The guys who subscribe to Bloomberg news anywhere are handling billions of dollars.. so its imperative for them to get the news rightaway. If you read about how these news results are prepared (with absolute security) .. and the room in which they are displayed to reporters (no cellphones, pagers allowed, and crazy security stuff) you'll be amazed.. its pretty exciting. The next US interest rate decision is in August, I think. If they raise the interest rates by 25 points and announce "Thats it! No more hikes".. I expect the USD to tank really really low..if ination is still a concern.
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End of hikes usually means bad news for the dollar.. because the higher the interest rate, the greater the amount of investment from foreign countries (into our banks) Open a 'demo' account or a 'game' account.. they come with a news plug-in which provides real time news (not as fast as bloomberg though) Practice, practice, practice.. thats the only way you'll get good at it.
Curren~Sea
07-03-2006 05:03 PM
I haven't read all of the posts but I will tomorrow... I just wanted to address one specic question real quick... I average 5-10% prot on my full account balance every month. Of course I have losing trades but I am only concerned with maintaining long term consistency. 5% per month compounded is about 80% prot on your original balance per year, i.e. $1000 in Jan 2005 is worth $1795 in Jan 2006. I manage my drawdown (the amount I can lose in any given trade) to about 5%. If you look at the numbers that way, I am only ever risking 5% of my capital and it is returning 5% per month, which is 100% prot. More comments tomorrow...
Crimson
Oanda Hi,
07-03-2006 05:17 PM
Very giving thread!! I'm a complete newbie, determined to learn forex. My biggest hurdle have been being a Mac user and all the brokers who don't support Mac. Arggghh! So if I'm getting it right from this thread Oanda is the way to go? How long have you been trading with them? Any other recommendations? I just want to get my feet wet but want to nd a reliable platform/broker rst! Thanks again for a great thread!
njmac
I found a great Forex tutorial site HERE that provides great info for beginners.
07-03-2006 05:42 PM
I'm still not convinced... but Music Producer gives pretty sound reasoning and advice. I still maintain that you must be more caution with Forex than regulated futures/securites, so be careful!
Hoef
Quote:
07-03-2006 06:10 PM
Originally Posted by Curren~Sea I average 5-10% prot on my full account balance every month. If you look at the numbers that way, I am only ever risking 5% of my capital and it is returning 5% per month, which is 100% prot.
If you are willing to guarantee these returns for a year I'll give you a six gure sum to manage and pay you a percent of prot :D
Chip NoVaMac
07-03-2006 08:19 PM
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So as in the stock market where you have brokers that work on index funds, are there the same for FOREX issues? Meaning that I would not mind an affordable "fee" to have someone like Curren~Sea manage my "trades"
Music_Producer
Quote:
07-03-2006 09:28 PM
Originally Posted by Crimson Hi, Very giving thread!! I'm a complete newbie, determined to learn forex. My biggest hurdle have been being a Mac user and all the brokers who don't support Mac. Arggghh! So if I'm getting it right from this thread Oanda is the way to go? How long have you been trading with them? Any other recommendations? I just want to get my feet wet but want to nd a reliable platform/broker rst! Thanks again for a great thread!
Hey Crimson, as of now I like Oanda because their platform works on java, so it works with safari, refox, etc. Every other trader's software is based on windows xp.. so that would be painful to work with. There are a couple of reasons why I like Oanda 1. Fixed spreads.. as I quoted earlier. EUR/USD pip spread is 1.5 pips, and does not change 2. Oanda pays interest every day. For e.g. if I have $1500 in my account, just balance (i.e. no traders, nothing) they pay 4.5% interest (per year) and this interest is deposited in my account everyday (as in daily interest.. whatever 25 cents etc) 3. If I make a interest positive trade and hold it.. for e.g. I buy say 50,000 AUD/JPY (Aussie dollar vs japanese yen) I will make 5.2% interest on that 50,000 units - thats roughly $210 per month. A lot of people (including me at times) do this 'carry' trade.. and earn the interest. Lets say AUD/JPY is 84.50 today. I buy 50,000 units. Tomorrow it goes to 84.. thats a loss of 50 pips ONLY if I sell it (i.e. I unload my 50000 units) But I have no intention of selling those units, until it goes up.. because i am busy collecting interest. So after a month or so.. it nally goes to 84.60 or 84.70.. thats when I sell off the 50,000 units. I make a prot of 10 pips (albeit after 30 days) but at the same time, I have collected quite a bit of interest. I have tried trading with other forex companies, and they don't pay interest.. they only "collect" it from you! Another hypothetical example - say you have $50,000 in your forex account. You use $25,000 to buy 1,250,000 units of AUD/JPY (at 50:1 margin).. then you make about $5000 in interest per month. I mentioned using only half the account balance, because you need the other half to accomodate for any 'dips'. Right now I am not in this carry trade, because the Bank of Japan *might* raise interest rates next month, or this month. Currently the interest rate is 0% :rolleyes: ..yup.. zero. If they raise it to 0.25 or 0.15% the Japanese Yen will shoot up against every other damn currency. They have kept their interest rate at 0% for too long.. and almost every country in the world is taking advantage of this interest rate. They 'borrow' from japanese banks at 0% and invest in Aussie banks which pay them 5.2% or more interest.. its a nice game. As for people here jumping into looking to invest money in 'managed funds'.. all I can say is , be careful. Nobody can manage your money (in forex) better than you can.
Hoef
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07-04-2006 09:19 AM
1/15/08 8:08 PM
Any Forex blogs? Are there any forex blogs out there that you recommend (a google search revealed many many)? ....
Curren~Sea
07-04-2006 10:35 AM
Hoef: :eek: No way am I to the level of managing other people's money! I've been learning about the currency market for about 16 months now and I still feel like a noob. I fully plan to make this my main source of income but I am not quite there yet. I've spent countless hours studying and I'm committed to doing whatever it takes to succeed. Maybe someday I'll move into money management - I have actually been asked that question before... but not yet. Trading, as my mentor states, is a marathon not a sprint. I'm happy with small consistent wins. They add up. The irony of trading is that there are hundreds of successful strategies out there but they are very difcult to nd. And, it is even more difcult to follow a strategy consistently due to our human nature. Successful trading is more about how you approach it than it is about what you actually do. That's why you can see so many good traders that have completely different styles. For example, if you read some of the interviews from, "New Market Wizards", it is evident that the traders have vastly different strategies yet they are all extremely wealthy from their trading. Music_Producer and I have different strategies. I believe that I can in fact predict the market based on technical indicators. Sometimes I'm wrong, sometimes I'm right but my money management skills ensures that I always end up moving ahead. That is to say that I limit my losses and I let my winners ride. I may have 5 losses out of 10 trades but if my 5 losses are for 25 pips each and my 5 wins are for 100 pips each then how does that look at the end of the month? By the way, I like trading announcements also. And the grandaddy of them all is Non-Farm Payrolls which will occur this Friday (the rst Friday of each month). But, I don't need to make money on the announcement for the announcement to make me money. If the announcement sets a trend that I follow, I can ride it for a long way. One other thing for Music_Producer... Oanda does in fact slide their spreads. That's one thing that bothers me about them. During periods of high volatility they will increase their spreads. See the following link: http://fxtrade.oanda.com/spreads/rec....shtml#eur_usd As a trader, we want to be diligent about what broker we choose. Oanda has a good reputation. My broker, FXCM, does not have a good reputation but I have not had too many problems with them - but enough that I'm looking for a better solution. The thing I like about FXCM in Canada is that because they're Canadian, my account is insured by the government which is unlike most other brokers. Having said that, the best brokers out there have systems in place to protect your money. And, if you get real serious you can use a Swiss or Danish broker and you won't have to worry about it. Anyway, this is much too long of a post but I'll wrap up by saying that I appreciate the dialogue here and hope we can all learn something from it.
njmac
Quote:
07-04-2006 04:40 PM
Originally Posted by Music_Producer As for people here jumping into looking to invest money in 'managed funds'.. all I can say is , be careful. Nobody can manage your money (in forex) better than you can.
12 of 18
1/15/08 8:08 PM
Thank you for saying this. Very true! No one cares about your money as much as you do.
Music_Producer
Quote:
07-04-2006 04:49 PM
Originally Posted by Curren~Sea One other thing for Music_Producer... Oanda does in fact slide their spreads. That's one thing that bothers me about them. During periods of high volatility they will increase their spreads.
Oh yeah CurrenSea.. that holds true for GBP/USd, etc.. but never EUR/USD. I have never seen EUR/USD cross 3 pips even during the interest rate announcements. Obviously during the weekends, pip spreads shoot up for all currencies because Forex markets are closed.. this is true for every forex broker. For me trading EUR/USD, Oanda gives me the best deal. I wish we had a broker who would offer a 1 pip spread on all currencies.. regardless of market conditions :D
Music_Producer
Korean Missiles Another example of how news affects currencies..
07-04-2006 05:52 PM
Every currency shot up against the JPY today when the missile launch news was announced.. obviously the japanese yen sunk because NKorean can easily target Japan. You can't 'wait' for these kind of news.. but when you're trading, you should always take them into consideration.
njmac
Quote:
07-05-2006 06:13 AM
Originally Posted by Curren~Sea And, if you get real serious you can use a Swiss or Danish broker and you won't have to worry about it.
What benet does having a Swiss or Danish broker give you and what exactly won't you have to worry about? Is it risky to deal with a company overseas with your money?
Crimson
Anyone used ac-markets.com?
07-05-2006 07:02 AM
I am currently pretty set with using Oanda.com, but came across http://www.ac-markets.com and was told they support Mac via their java application. Anyone have any experience? Anyone used both Oanda and ACM?
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1/15/08 8:08 PM
Thanks! (And extra thank you to Music_Producer for your reply!)
njmac
Quote:
07-05-2006 07:47 AM
Originally Posted by Crimson I am currently pretty set with using Oanda.com, but came across http://www.ac-markets.com and was told they support Mac via their java application. Anyone have any experience? Anyone used both Oanda and ACM? Thanks! (And extra thank you to Music_Producer for your reply!)
SCAM ? LINK .... and this is what I hate about the Forex markets. As music_producer has been showing us, it can be protable.... but only if you are careful. Thanks for posting here rst and asking. You could've been a victim.
Curren~Sea
07-05-2006 10:38 AM
Actually, it is quite possible that forexbastards.com is the scammer. I certainly do not trust that site. It is obvious that whoever maintains it spends an enormous amount of time and energy advertising and promoting (and probably not trading). The more I surf around the more garbage I nd on the net regarding forex. It's hard to sort out who is legit and who are the scammers. Since this market is not regulated, some accounts in the U.S. are not secured. However, in other coutries such as Canada your funds are secured by the government. In Switzerland, they have very strict laws and accounting procedures that virtually assure that a bank or broker will not conduct fraud. 35% of the world's money is in Swiss accounts. Additionally, there are no capital gains tax on Swiss accounts.
~Shard~
Quote:
07-05-2006 10:58 AM
Originally Posted by Curren~Sea Since this market is not regulated, some accounts in the U.S. are not secured. However, in other coutries such as Canada your funds are secured by the government. In Switzerland, they have very strict laws and accounting procedures that virtually assure that a bank or broker will not conduct fraud. 35% of the world's money is in Swiss accounts. Additionally, there are no capital gains tax on Swiss accounts.
Apologies if you have mentioned it already, but who exactly do you recommend using here in Canada? In order for your money to be protected does it have to be through a Canadian company in Canadian funds? Based on Music_Producer's comments, I started looking at Oanda, but would like to hear your thoughts on the matter...
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1/15/08 8:08 PM
Also, can anyone open a Swiss account then? What are the details around doing this? Do they have huge service fees, or a minimum account balance in the millions? ;) :cool: Thanks in advance. :cool:
njmac
I would love to have a numbered Swiss bank account :cool:
07-05-2006 11:48 AM
njmac
Quote:
07-05-2006 11:56 AM
Originally Posted by Curren~Sea The more I surf around the more garbage I nd on the net regarding forex. It's hard to sort out who is legit and who are the scammers.
I know, me too. That is the thing I hate about forex. Its just too damn easy to get taken. I like the idea of making money off the foreign exchange market but its so hard to seperate the BS get rich quick scams from the legit outts. I did see somewhere else about ac-markets that it is a scam... I'll have to see if I can track down a link other than forex bastards. (I don't really know whether to trust them either, and certainly wouldn't spend a dime there, but a lot of their broker reviews are spot-on when it comes to scams)
~Shard~
07-05-2006 12:18 PM
From all these discussions, I assume Oanda is relatively safe, at least in terms of all these "scam" entities? Just wondering who I should go through if I decide to get into this aspect of investing... :cool: (I guess I sort of asked the same thing in my previous post as well... :o ;))
njmac
07-05-2006 12:25 PM
From what I can tell, Oanda is not perfect, but they are reputable. If you open an account with them, will you please report back here how you found them to be? And of course how successful you are ;) :cool:
~Shard~
Quote:
07-05-2006 12:32 PM
Originally Posted by njmac From what I can tell, Oanda is not perfect, but they are reputable. If you open an account with them, will you please report back here how you found them to be? And of course how successful you are ;) :cool:
Will do! ;) I wouldn't mind hearing a bit more from Music_Producer and Curren~Sea rst though... :)
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1/15/08 8:08 PM
savar
Quote:
07-05-2006 12:43 PM
Originally Posted by Music_Producer If you had a 200:1 margin, and bought 500,000 units.. you would have made $12,400 :eek: :eek:
does the idea of trading on 200:1 margin frighten you? or are the currencies stable enough that in practice you wouldn't get wiped out? also, how did you come to be aware of the timing of economic releases. is it just something that you follow in the newspaper? edit: also, the japanese 0% interest rate, is that real interest or nominal interest?
Curren~Sea
07-05-2006 01:28 PM
I'm not sure which brokers/bankers in Switzerland would be the best. I am doing a lot of research now. But to be quite honest, with my style of trading I don't have much trouble with FXCM (actually it is MAN nancial in Canada). I'm a longer term trader and my stop losses are generally out of range for a bucket shop to phish. If I have a 50-100 pip stop loss, it is very difcult for a dishonest broker to spike it. I don't know this for a fact, obviously, but I suspect that most people who complain about their stops being taken out by a broker probably have only themselves to blame for putting it at a vulnerable spot. It is folly to arbitrarily put your stops at some round number such as 10 or 25 or 50 pips without taking historical highs and lows into account. Doing so will virtually guarantee that your trade is stopped out. And it's not necessarily the broker who will stop you out but the mob mentality of the market. For sure, announcements move the market. But how far the move travels is a function of technical points of resistance. If a trader is scalping pips off announcements then yes, you need a platform that will let you trade during the few seconds or minutes of major volatility - FXCM does not. But they do honor your trades. If you put in entries, limits, and stops before a major announcement, your trade station may be locked for a few minutes but you'll eventually see that they executed your trades. As for Canadian brokers, I know many traders who are very happy with FXSolutions, and you can use them anywhere but BC. Another that I have started researching is QuestTrade out of Toronto. To deposit funds with just about any broker you can simply wire transfer the money. Personally, I funded mine from my credit card (got air miles) which I always pay back every month to avoid interest charges. There are a lot of other papers to read, sign, and fax or scan and email. But, by the time a person is ready to open a live account they should be comfortable with all of the legal mumbo jumbo.
Curren~Sea
Here's another true story...
07-05-2006 01:40 PM
When I started trading forex, I was excited and I told my brother about it. I said that I thought he'd make a good trader and that he should take some courses like I have. Well, he didn't want to pay for training so he did some research on the net, read a couple books from the library then opened up a demo account. He was phenomenal in his demo trading. He took his 50k free account to 75k within a month on momentum trades.
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1/15/08 8:08 PM
He opened a little live account with $1000 and it was gone in two weeks. Of course he is not interested in trading anymore.... I asked him what happened? He said that he changed his strategy when he went live. I said, WHAT?! Why on earth would you do that? He didn't really have a good explanation and that's the end of that for him. I have a good explanation, though. Demo trading is nothing like live trading. Demo accounts have no real value and we attach no emotional value to them. It's easy to make money in a demo account. Go live and it's a whole different ballgame. The morals of this story are: 1) Get some real, professional training. 2) Practice on your demo account at least for 3 months and try very hard to treat it like it is your real, hard-earned money. 3) Find a system that works for you and stick to it.
Hoef
Quote:
07-05-2006 02:12 PM
Originally Posted by Curren~Sea I'm a longer term trader and my stop losses are generally out of range for a bucket shop to phish.
Curren~Sea, so are you more trading on fundamentals? Why are there so many forex trading sites in Canada?
Music_Producer
07-05-2006 02:36 PM
Savar, most forex brokers set the default margin rate to 200:1..thereby making it pretty easy to lose money if you're a newbie and have no idea what a margin call is. My margin is set to 50:1. Oanda does not allow me to set a higher margin than that, and in a way thats good. For economic releases, just download the economic calendar from any forex site.I don't read the newspaper for that.. the newspaper's only for the comic strips :p As for dealing with swiss brokers, I don't know. I feel safer dealing with forex traders who are based in the United States.. because thats where I live. If I were in Canada, I would probably deal with a canadian broker and so on. Oanda's based in NY, and a couple of ofces around the world of course. My rst forex account was with Refco FX. They were pretty big.. but they went bankrupt and were bought by another forex broker. Everyone panicked, thinking their money was gone.. but I received my money back (in the form of a check) I only had $48 in there, but they did return it. Thats also because they were based in the US, if it were a Swiss company.. I am not sure how that would work. Maybe I'd have to y to Zurich to get my money back? :rolleyes: The best way to check if a forex site is for real or not.. is their contact information and the way the site is set up. I mean I have seen some seriously amateurish sites.. and the best giveaway is "Minimum requirement is $30,000 deposit" Lol.. yeah, sure. You can deposit $10 in oanda and trade with that.. my rst deposit was $50 to practice. Curren~Sea, your brother made the grave mistake of changing his strategy. *Everyone* does well with a demo account! I converted $50,000 into $120,000! Why? Because its fake money. I would simply trade for the heck of it.. for 'fun'. And also, $50,000 gives you a lot of collateral in the event of a margin call.
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1/15/08 8:08 PM
Which is why I always say.. treat the demo account like a real account! Also, don't go around looking for forex forums or blogs.. there are a lot of idiots out there who give retarded advice "OMG!! SELL GBP/JPY RIGHT NOW!!!! MAKE $$$$" and crap like that. Sometimes, when you're out of trading strategies.. you will look to adapt anything that anyone says.. and that will usually burn you.
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Curren~Sea
07-05-2006 02:44 PM
Hoef: I trade on technical indicators such as chart patterns and the Elliott Wave. I do not follow the fundamentals at all. I am aware of fundamentals, and I am aware that announcments occur but I do not really care what they are other than their relative importance, i.e. how much are they likely to move the market. I care where the market is currently going and I use the Elliott Wave to predict market turn arounds. Basically, predicting the markets is an odds game. This may sound like gambling but it isn't. It's more like the process of elimination. If you do things that increase your odds then you'll be more successful. This concept is no different than buying stocks or real estate. You take a chance that your investments will move in the direction you expect but you don't really know. However, if you do your homework and make intelligent decisions based on solid facts then you stand a much better chance of succeeding. I doubt that Canada has more fx brokers than anyone else. I think many of the companies are subsidiaries of larger US or multi-national rms. I have played around with the Oanda FX Game and it's ok. I don't really like the platform itself but I like the concept and the mechanics behind it. I pay for professional charts that originate from FX Trek, and they're unparalleled in my opinion. So, my broker doesn't need to provide charts, they just need to have a good system that is reliable.
Curren~Sea
Margin, spreads, leverage, pips... it can all be confusing. Well, it still confuses me! But I am of the opinion that the higher the leverage the better.
07-05-2006 05:10 PM
With 200:1, it costs $50 to secure $10,000 USD worth of a currency, which is one lot (10000 / 50 = 200). At 200:1, one lot is worth $1. If the currency goes your way by 10 pips, then you make $10. You can buy 10 lots, which would cost you $500 and each pip is worth $10, so a 10 pip move would make you $100. At 100:1 it costs you $1000 to secure 1 lot but each lot is actually $100,000, and each lot is worth $10. Each pip is worth $10. So with 200:1 it costs 500 to control 100,000. At 100:1 it costs 1000 to control 100,000. In either case, each pip is worth $10. Which makes the most sense? You will never lose your margin, i.e. the 500 you use to secure 100,000. The most you can lose is your stop loss, which you should always enter at the same time as your trade. If you get margined out, you'll get your 500 back and everything else will be gone. This is just an example and the numbers can vary. Example of a worst case scenario: You have a 2000 account, you buy 10 lots for 500 (rst silly mistake). That leaves you 1500 worth of pips. You forget to enter a stop (second silly mistake) and you go on a cruise to Alaska. The market goes against you by 150 pips and you get a margin call (150 * 10 = 1500). The broker takes your 1500 and gives you back the 500. You get home, see your mistakes, take your 500 and buy lots of beer and chips. I still haven't gured out how Oanda calculates its fractional lots but I have only heard good things from people who use them.
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1/15/08 8:09 PM
Personally, I am all about simplifying. And generally a few pips doesn't mean much to me because I'm after hundreds.
Music_Producer
ECB meeting today
07-06-2006 04:29 AM
There's an ECB meeting today at 12.45 GMT.. (next 15 mins) Lets see if they raise interest rates or leave it where it is..
njmac
Quote:
07-06-2006 06:17 AM
Originally Posted by Music_Producer There's an ECB meeting today at 12.45 GMT.. (next 15 mins) Lets see if they raise interest rates or leave it where it is..
How did you do?
Hoef
Quote:
07-06-2006 06:20 AM
Originally Posted by njmac How did you do?
Also let us know how you are going to approach the non-farm payroll tomorrow. Good stuff!
Crimson
On a very beginners' level... Hi again everyone,
07-06-2006 07:34 AM
I realize I'm so much newer at this than most of you guys in here but you have given me some good advice so I'll gure I can ask some more. But please forgive the lack of the right terms. I am reading all the beginner material I can nd on Forex but am yet to come across answers to what I'm really curious about. If I buy Euros when they seem low, after looking at the bigger picture" chart (on Oanda 1 day charts) and they look low in comparisson to where they've been. Now I'm thinking that they will go back up to where they've been at some point... so why would I put a stop/loss order on it? I mean, can I not leave the order active until it does? Theoretically, for days, weeks... or months? I guess what my question is; does currency go low and stay that way forever? Doesn't it always spring back at some point? What is the reason for taking the loss early and not waiting it out? OK... probably a really silly question and completely gives away my amature status but I would really appreciate your help!! (and no... im not trading real money yet... phew!):)
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Curren~Sea
In theory, everything balances out over time.
07-06-2006 11:49 AM
However... a smart trader should ALWAYS use a stop loss to protect their capital. What if it doesn't come back for a long, long time? What if you bought the EUR in Jan of 1999, well it took you 4.5 years before it came back. What if there is a major catastrophe or a major accomplishment? For example, you are in a trade that you expect the USD to go down and they nab Osama, what do you think the US dollar will do? Or you're in a trade and you expect the YEN to go up, and a North Korean missile lands in Japanese territory? What do you think the Yen will do? There are just too many variables that are completely out of our control and you don't want to blow through your whole account on something like that. Success in forex is as much about protecting your trading capital as it is about prot. Always use a stop loss, that's how you control your risk.
Curren~Sea
07-06-2006 11:55 AM
Another way of looking at it is your risk vs. reward. This is a very important concept in trading. A stop loss number is your risk. And you should have some idea what your reward will be based on chart patterns or based on what your goals are. If I use a 20 pip stop and I expect a 20 pip prot, that is a 1:1 risk vs. reward ratio. Are you happy with that? I can make one good trade and one bad trade and be even. If I have a 50 pip stop and I expect 100 pip prot, that's 2 to 1. I can make 2 bad trades and one good trade and be even. A huge part of trading is learning that it's ok to lose as long as your wins outpace your losses. Most people hate to lose (me included) so it takes a lot of discipline to stick with my stop losses, take a loss and move on to my next trade. But it works out well in the long run.
Music_Producer
Quote:
07-06-2006 01:19 PM
Originally Posted by njmac How did you do?
Well, nothing happened.. the interest rates were not touched. The Euro went down by a few pips and I made about 8 pips.. thats it though. The Bank of England didn't raise rates either. Quite a boring day. :p Crimson.. yeah, thats what I used to think too.. that at *some* time the currency will come back up. In theory you can be ne if you don't use a stop loss.. but when you see that "-700$" sign in your account.. you won't be able to sleep that well :D Additionally, you're paying interest if you have a interest negative trade. For e.g. if you buy EUR/USD.. you are paying daily interest. If you sell EUR/USD however, you are getting interest. Just like I stated about the AUD/JPY.. I buy it and hold it (if it goes down) because it pays me interest. Eventually when it goes back up, I sell it and make my prot. Right now I am *not* doing that because the
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bank of japan is expected to end its zero interest rate policy next week.. but with all these Korean missiles ying around, I don't quite know what's going to happen. Crimson, lets assume you bought the EUR/USD at 1.2900 before the interest rates were announced last month. If you even bought only 5000 units, you'd have a -$108 pending loss (if you sold it) Lets say you bought 15000 units..you'd have -$325. In addition you are paying $1.4 interest everyday. Now the EUR has still not come back to 1.29.. in fact, its at 1.278.. and goes to 1.27 at times. So yes, theoretically.. if you have enough balance in your account to accomodate for these swings.. you will be ne.. as the currency will come back to its level.. but it might take years! One thing's for sure.. the currency will never go to zero like stocks do! But then, those units which are making a loss (which you are holding on to) also reduce your ability to buy more units to make a protable trade, and so on. Plus the interest..its better to employ a stop loss, and forget about it when you make prot later on. I'll post about today..er..tomorrow's news this evening and let you know what I think
Crimson
Ready for book release! Hi Music_Producer,
07-06-2006 04:43 PM
Being new at this I've discovered how hard it is to nd really good newbie books in this topic - just wanted to say the more I read, the more impressed I get with your way of explaining this to someone who is just starting out, and all I can say is the bookstores NEED a book written by someone like you!! Thank you again. I've gotten more useful info from you than books and sites I've read! Be prepared for more silly questions down the road! :)
Music_Producer
Quote:
07-06-2006 06:00 PM
Originally Posted by Crimson Hi Music_Producer, Being new at this I've discovered how hard it is to nd really good newbie books in this topic - just wanted to say the more I read, the more impressed I get with your way of explaining this to someone who is just starting out, and all I can say is the bookstores NEED a book written by someone like you!! Thank you again. I've gotten more useful info from you than books and sites I've read! Be prepared for more silly questions down the road! :)
Hey Crimson, you're welcome! All I can say is, I don't know why these damn books always 'try' to explain things.. but they never really do. Sure, they explain the basics of forex trading, and all the 'mistakes' you shouldn't make.. but honestly that's already there on every forex site. All those charting patterns, analyzing stuff is good in theory.. but I nd that I can never predict a 'trend'. My trades last for a few seconds, and they work, well they have worked so far. Hey, maybe I'll write a book in the future.. so right now you're kinda seeing a work in progress :p
Music_Producer
Hawkish and Dovish
07-06-2006 06:43 PM
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1/15/08 8:09 PM
No, they're not characters from a cartoon strip...:D ..thats just the term they use all the time in forex.. when the Fed chairman is 'hawkish' that means he's more willing to raise interest rates. He will usually talk like "Yes, ination is a threat and we will be raising rates in the future".. something of that sort. Dovish is when it seems like they are done with raising rates, or will do nothing to the rates.. something like "Ination is well contained, the economy's strong.. we see no reason to hike rates anymore" So lets look at the graph for this morning-
1. This is when the ECB announced that the rates were not hiked.. this was expected.. so kinda boring.. but I sold the Euro anyway as i expected it to dip a little .. and it did 2. I closed the trade (by buying euro at a lower price) for about 8 pips. This was all before 5 am. Traders also look for what the ECB chief has to say about the Euro during their meeting.. i.e. whether he is hawkish or dovish (sounds silly i know!) So at 5.30 am, a bunch of reports came out.. and he was very hawkish.. mentioned that on Aug 3, there won't be a teleconference (as ppl expected) but a real conference.. and a possibility that rates might be hiked. This was huge.. because nobody expected them to really meet again on Aug 3 (I dont know why they waste so much money on meetings..just meet once and raise the rates damnit!! :p ) When that news came out.. the Euro jumped .. and as you can see .. its been at that level pretty much the entire day (towards 1.2780) I didn't expect that the ECB would announce Aug 3 to be their next meeting, so I went to sleep before this report came out.. damn! Anyway, hope this explains how even simple comments made by the Feds/ECB can affect the currency. Which is why they used to say Alan Greenspan was so powerful.. because he could move markets simply by talking.. obviously the same holds true for every Fed chairman. And you thought you had the best job in the world huh? :p If the US non farm payrolls come out strong, then the USD will go up.. remember, you need a good deviation from the standard 'expectation' If the market expects 310k jobless..and the number comes to 313 or 309k.. thats not going to move the market much. If the number comes to something like 350k or 250 k.. the market will move.. a lot! And while you're paying attention to all that, don't forget our psycho friend Kim Jong and his missile threats! Its funny though, as the markets have 'factored' these threats.. they apparently don't think Nkorea can be a real danger. I sure hope they're not.
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njmac
Thanks again for the info. It does make sense the way you explain it. :)
07-06-2006 06:58 PM
I am very curious to know how you learned the fundamentals? Like how did you learn what specic news will cause a specic spike up or down in the markets. How do you learn what affects other countries currencies? If you read Trade the News, how exactly do you know what that news will do?
Music_Producer
Quote:
07-06-2006 07:07 PM
Originally Posted by njmac Thanks again for the info. It does make sense the way you explain it. :) I am very curious to know how you learned the fundamentals? Like how did you learn what specic news will cause a specic spike up or down in the markets. How do you learn what affects other countries currencies? If you read Trade the News, how exactly do you know what that news will do?
Hey nj, pretty simple.. trading for months with a demo account, I followed the news and wrote down everything.. whatever effect a certain segment had on that particular currency. Some releases have small impacts, some in turn - huge. I nd that interest rate decisions move currencies the most.. even 'rumors' or simply statements about interest rates.
~Shard~
07-06-2006 08:29 PM
Once again, thanks Music_Producer. Thanks to you, I might just get back into this crazy Forex game one of these days... ;) :cool:
Music_Producer
07-06-2006 09:26 PM
Hey Shard! Almost forgot about your country's news release today! At 7 am new york time.. Canadian unemployment rate and change in employment comes out. I usually like trading CAD (canadian dollar) as its less volatile compared to Euro and the like. :) So.. 7 am - CAD change in employment report 8.30 am - non farm payrolls - affects USD
~Shard~
Quote:
07-06-2006 09:42 PM
Originally Posted by Music_Producer Hey Shard! Almost forgot about your country's news release today! At 7 am new york time.. Canadian unemployment rate and change in employment comes out. I usually like trading CAD (canadian dollar) as its less volatile compared to Euro and the like. :) So..
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1/15/08 8:09 PM
7 am - CAD change in employment report 8.30 am - non farm payrolls - affects USD
Yep, I'm always well aware of the economic news, being the active investor that I am, however I'm not in the position to benet from it as I do not have one of these fancy schmancy Forex trading accounts... yet... ;) I follow all that news closely as well, it would be nice to capitalize on it... ;cool: So, you'll be ready to go with your hand over the BUY or SELL button for CAD/USD? ;) :) Let us know how it goes, if you decide to act...
Music_Producer
07-07-2006 02:38 AM
Yup Shard.. I'll be ready to trade the USD/CAD at 7 am EST (4 am PST in Cali) I am so used to staying awake now till 6 am.. :) I will be trading the EUR/USD as well.. but the non farm payroll seems a little weird.. expectations are ranging from 135k to 185k.. and thats a pretty huge range. :eek:
Music_Producer
Quote:
07-07-2006 02:46 AM
Originally Posted by Crimson If I buy Euros when they seem low, after looking at the bigger picture" chart (on Oanda 1 day charts) and they look low in comparisson to where they've been. Now I'm thinking that they will go back up to where they've been at some point... so why would I put a stop/loss order on it? I mean, can I not leave the order active until it does? Theoretically, for days, weeks... or months? I guess what my question is; does currency go low and stay that way forever? Doesn't it always spring back at some point? What is the reason for taking the loss early and not waiting it out? OK... probably a really silly question and completely gives away my amature status but I would really appreciate your help!! (and no... im not trading real money yet... phew!):)
I know I have replied to this earlier but I wanted to post an additional comment on your question.. based on personal experience. During my rst few months of trading recklessly i.e. no stop loss, gut trading and so on.. I tried the same thing. At that time I had a 200:1 margin, so I bought EUR/USD and didn't have a stop loss. The next morning, I was at a $400 loss.. with little margin left. So I panicked, and wired some more funds into my forex account. The funds showed up the next day, and everything was good (well, that $400 loss was still staring at me in the face) I was hoping the EUR would go back up and everything would be sunny again. 24 hours go by.. the Eur's gone down again.. and I'm looking at a possible $950 loss. I still have some margin left, so i don't worry about it. In a few hours, it tanks to -$1200. Again, I have hardly any margin left, so i wire more money into my account. Too late.. i get a margin call and *poof* I just realized a $1200 loss. no problem right? I'm the oh-so-wannabe-George-Soros trader. So I got pissed off.. and wired more money and bought EUR at that level. Hey, it tanked so low.. it has to go up! Wrong. The bastard tanked again.. and I went through the whole frikkin cycle again.
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1/15/08 8:09 PM
Had I employed a stop loss, I would have lost about $100, instead of $2400. AND the interest I had to pay on top of that. So Crimson, if you make the same mistake that I did, or intend to make the same mistake.. please wire me your money and I will take more care of it than you will :p
Music_Producer
Before you try a Carry Trade Strategy
07-07-2006 02:57 AM
Assume you have $10,000 in capital. Use $5,000 (keep the other 5000 in the forex account as collateral) and buy AUD/JPY at 50:1 margin. That gives you about 334,000 units to buy at the current usd/aud rate. You will fetch $36 every 24 hours in interest. Not bad for using only $5000 of your capital. Lets say you bought the aud/jpy at 86.00.. anda fter 30 days, it dips to 83. This is absolutely possible, because in one month aussie has jumped from 83.50 to almost near 86. So the reverse can happen too. At 50:1 margin, you are looking at a -$8717 loss. But you have $5000 collateral.. so you need to pump in atleast $4000 extra in your account to accomodate for that dip. The bank of japan eliminates their zero interest rate policy. The Yen skyrockets.. Aussie dips to 79 (can easily happen in 24 hours) Whats your loss looking like? -$20,340. So you're gonna pump in more money to accomodate for it? you cant.. you wont! To make $36 per day in interest, you just spend a hell lotta money! This is where a lot of newbies mess up too. The aussie can go up too.. say from 86 to 90 (if the bank of japan does not end the zero interest policy, korea launches more missiles so the yen tanks etc etc) then you stand at a $11,000 prot PLUS your $36 per day interest. So if you're going to operate a carry trade, be careful and be aware of what can possibly happen. Banks don't have to worry about this as we do, since they have billions in collateral (until they go bankrupt :p )
Music_Producer
My USD/CAD trade
07-07-2006 04:16 AM
Just nished my trade a few minutes ago (at 4.04 am.. its now 4.10am) CAD employment came out to -4.6k vs expectations of 10k.
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1/15/08 8:09 PM
1. This is where I bought the USD/CAD - as you can see I got in a little late:rolleyes: 2. This is where I sold it .. for 4 pips prot (4 pips *20 = $80) 3. This is where the bloomberg/reuters crowd got their news, and bought the USD.. so they made 40 pips i.e. I could have made $800, instead of $80. So yes, subscribing to bloomberg news would be worth it.. but I'm not ready for it yet. The USD went up by a few pips more after I exited.. about 6 more I think.. but I always get out fast especially considering that the main event today is going to be the US non farm payrolls in about an hour and a half. Oh, now rumors are that the market is 'expecting' 200,000 for non farm payrolls.. so the range is 135-200,000.. ridiculous! Will be interesting to see what happens..
njmac
How many seconds is that chart?
07-07-2006 05:08 AM
Also, I'm a little surprised how much it dipped a few times. Did that stop a lot of people out do you think, or is that normal?
Music_Producer
07-07-2006 05:14 AM
Not too sure about the chart interval.. didn't notice that when i took the snapshot with the grab tool. The dips occur after every spike (the big spike grabbed 40 pips.. ) they are merely corrections.. I didn't place a stop loss on this one at all, because I knew USD had to go up against the CAD. -4.6 k is pretty bad when they were expecting 10 k. Stay alert for that payroll report..
Music_Producer
07-07-2006 05:42 AM
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1/15/08 8:09 PM
Awesome payroll trade US non farm payrolls came out to only 121k or so.. market was expecting from 135 to 200 k (200 k rumors came up during the last 3-4 hours) EUR shot up by 77 pips against the USD! I was a little faster at getting in the action this time ..so I grabbed 32 pips .. made $640 in 2-4 seconds :D
Its going to be a nice weekend :D
Music_Producer
07-07-2006 05:45 AM
Njmac.. the 'dips' are also due to prot taking. When all the banks bought the EUR like whores at the base level.. they all also sold a lot of EUR at the highest level.. so that does affect the EUR.. and you see 'dips'. Then collectively, they will buy EUR again.. who knows after how long.. maybe a few seconds.. maybe a few minutes.. and then the whole thing repeats itself. As long as I got my prot.. I'm outta there.. the banks can then play with themselves :p
njmac
Quote:
07-07-2006 05:51 AM
Originally Posted by Music_Producer I was a little faster at getting in the action this time ..so I grabbed 32 pips .. made $640 in 2-4 seconds :D
:eek: good for you! Thanks again for all of the great info. You make it sound so easy ;)
~Shard~
07-07-2006 08:31 AM
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1/15/08 8:09 PM
Question for ya Music_Producer. Obviously you sit with your trading window open just before these announcements come out - but do you actually have some real-time news "ticker" or source running at the same time so you can actually see the #s, or do you just go off of the pre-news spikes by the Bloomberg/Reuters crowd? As you say, those who subscribe to Bloomberg get the news before everyone else, so you can see the currencies get affected before anything is ofcially released, but I am wondering if that is solely what you base your trades on, or if you wait to see the actual #s as well. (i.e. something spikes, so you assume the #s were way off and then conrm that later...) For instance, on the CAD employment #s, you said you didn't place a stop loss on it because you knew USD had to go up against CAD, since -4.6k is pretty bad compared to the expected 10k. But did you make that trade before the news came out, and then learned about the actual #s afterwards, or did you know the #s in real-time as well, hence why you didn't put a stop loss in? I thought if you wait for the #s it's too late due to all that pre-trading. ;) Sorry if I'm not explaining things clearly, hopefully you understand what I am getting at.... ;) :cool: Second quick question - how close to the scheduled times do these results come through? Right at 6AM on the nose, or sometimes earlier, sometimes later?
Music_Producer
07-07-2006 02:32 PM
Hey Shard.. I subscribe to tradethenews.com, its a news alerting service, and it costs $40/month. It works with win xp only so i have parallels running, and I have the volume pushed up (every news alert comes with a siren sound!) I click on buy or sell as soon as the news shows up.. I do NOT trade before that! Currencies jump around quite a bit, especially if the market is volatile.. lets look at the payroll situation. Everyone was expecting 135.. then it went to 150..then 185.. then 200k. Why? There were 'expectations' based on some payroll company.. in fact, there was even a number of 385k going around :eek: So if you had bought the USD based on these rumors.. and the news of 121k came in.. lets just say you would have quit forex the same day :rolleyes: Never trade before a news announcement.. I get in late on the action because tradethenews.com is not nowhere as fast as Bloomberg or reuters is. I would gladly subscribe to bloomberg news anywhere, but its $1700 a month, with a 2 year contract.. and you have to pay quarterly amounts, so I would have to pay somewhere around $5000 rightaway :eek: I'm really really fast though.. if something's coming out at 5.30 am (pst).. by 5.28 am i absolutely stop breathing! You can't take more than a second or two to analyze the news, and trade.. and get out!
~Shard~
Thanks Music_Producer - again, it's apreciated. :cool: Sounds high risk and high stress - what can I say, I like it. ;) :D
07-07-2006 03:19 PM
Hoef
Quote:
07-07-2006 08:28 PM
11 of 17
1/15/08 8:09 PM
Originally Posted by Music_Producer US non farm payrolls came out to only 121k or so.. market was expecting from 135 to 200 k (200 k rumors came up during the last 3-4 hours) EUR shot up by 77 pips against the USD! I was a little faster at getting in the action this time ..so I grabbed 32 pips .. made $640 in 2-4 seconds :D
Its going to be a nice weekend :D
I actually opened a demo account on OANDA and played with it. I also tried to time the EUR/USD "game" this morning. However I wasn't fast enough .... I noticed the spike, pulled the trigger immediately and was too late.... The whole jump lasted less than a second it seems. I noticed it took a while for the order to go through .... busy times. How to ever time this correctly ?
Music_Producer
Quote:
07-07-2006 08:54 PM
Originally Posted by Hoef I actually opened a demo account on OANDA and played with it. I also tried to time the EUR/USD "game" this morning. However I wasn't fast enough .... I noticed the spike, pulled the trigger immediately and was too late.... The whole jump lasted less than a second it seems. I noticed it took a while for the order to go through .... busy times. How to ever time this correctly ?
It wasn't less than a second buddy.. it was atleast 4 seconds, the oanda news came out after tradethenews
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1/15/08 8:09 PM
alert came out.. so i got in the action earlier. My order went through rightaway.. and I closed it fast as well. I tried FXCM (with a $300 deposit) and was absolutely annoyed, as when I clicked on 'buy' I got a "Waiting for dealer.." pop up. I just clicked 'cancel'.. I can't afford to wait for a loss, so I'll be closing my fxcm account and sticking with oanda. Also, its a friday, and the forex markets close today till sunday afternoon.. so trading is relatively dull.. on the other hand if there were some EUR reports coming out today (later on) you would have seen the EUR surge up even more. I can't possibly explain how fast you have to be when it comes to trading, I reset my dsl modem and router half an hour before i am going to trade, just to make sure that i don't have any 'dropouts' in my wireless connection.. make sure everything is running great. I wish I had 2 cursors.. one on either 'buy' or 'sell' and one on 'submit'. Kinda like a duel during the old wild west times :p
Hoef
Quote:
07-07-2006 09:23 PM
Originally Posted by Music_Producer It wasn't less than a second buddy.. it was atleast 4 seconds, the oanda news came out after tradethenews alert came out.. so i got in the action earlier. My order went through rightaway.. and I closed it fast as well. I tried FXCM (with a $300 deposit) and was absolutely annoyed, as when I clicked on 'buy' I got a "Waiting for dealer.." pop up. I just clicked 'cancel'.. I can't afford to wait for a loss, so I'll be closing my fxcm account and sticking with oanda.
I didn't use the news but watched for the "breakout". I guess by the time the breakout was obvious on my Oanda screen, 4 seconds had past...
~Shard~
07-07-2006 09:34 PM
Just curious Music_Producer do you physically have 2 trade windows open simultaneously? One to buy/sell (whatever you're doing initially) and then another one open to do the opposite to close the trade a few seconds/minutes afterwards? Just trying to get a good idea of how you streamline the prpocess. Timing denitely appears to be everything! :D
Music_Producer
Quote:
07-08-2006 12:54 AM
Originally Posted by ~Shard~ Just curious Music_Producer do you physically have 2 trade windows open simultaneously? One to buy/sell (whatever you're doing initially) and then another one open to do the opposite to close the trade a few seconds/minutes afterwards? Just trying to get a good idea of how you streamline the prpocess. Timing denitely appears to be everything! :D
Nope, just one window open. That's the trading window, or the order window.. it has the currency pair "EUR/USD", Buy or sell, and "Submit".. and other stuff like stop loss, take prot, etc but i dont select those. As soon as the news comes out, I have to click either 'buy' or 'sell' (one of them is selected anyway) and then hit 'submit' Thats where I lose most time - like maybe 1-2 seconds for the whole thing.. and thats too much!
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1/15/08 8:09 PM
Once the trade has been submitted, I just click on it, to 'close' it.. as soon as it hits a prot. So its one window open for buying/selling.. when thats done.. it closes.. and then you click on the trade to close it. Closing it is the easy part, its deciding between 'buying'/selling and hitting 'submit' that takes time. Oh, and analyzing the situation doesn't take me any time at all now (it used to earlier) since I'm used to it now. At any given point of time, I have multiple scenarios running in my head.. this morning it was "US payroll comes out.. talk of EUR raising rates.. JPY rates next week.. EUR might go up because of hawkish tones by the ECB chief.. so the USD seems weaker.. but lets wait till the payroll report comes out" So the EUR was poised to go up because of rate rumors anyway, but it received that needed boost from the disappointing payroll report.
~Shard~
Cool, thanks. :) Kay, a couple more for ya, if you don't mind... ;)
07-08-2006 07:52 AM
Do you have to pay any monthly account fees with Oanda? How about commissions on your trades? Or is it simply just a 3 pip charge (or whatever) in and out, just like how the banks always take their little cut when doing currency conversion for you... ;) Also, do you receive buy and sell slips in the mail for your record keeping just as you would a stock trade? Are your taxes a nightmare with so many trades? You must have sizable capital gains.... ;) :cool: And last one, I promise... for now... :o How aware of the actual exchange rates are you? Do you have a "cheat sheet" telling you what the conversion rates are, give or take, or is that detailed information somewhat immaterial to you? Just wondering if you know "off the top of your head" how much AUD you can buy with x lots considering your account is in USD, etc. etc. - I think you know what I'm getting at...
Music_Producer
Quote:
07-08-2006 06:25 PM
Originally Posted by ~Shard~ Cool, thanks. :) Kay, a couple more for ya, if you don't mind... ;) Do you have to pay any monthly account fees with Oanda? How about commissions on your trades? Or is it simply just a 3 pip charge (or whatever) in and out, just like how the banks always take their little cut when doing currency conversion for you... ;) Also, do you receive buy and sell slips in the mail for your record keeping just as you would a stock trade? Are your taxes a nightmare with so many trades? You must have sizable capital gains.... ;) :cool: And last one, I promise... for now... :o How aware of the actual exchange rates are you? Do you have a "cheat sheet" telling you what the conversion rates are, give or take, or is that detailed information somewhat immaterial to you? Just wondering if you know "off the top of your head" how much AUD you can buy with x lots considering your account is in USD, etc. etc. - I think you know what I'm getting at...
Hey shard.. don't mind the questions at all :)
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There are no monthly fees with any forex broker.. their commision is the pip spread (2-3 pips or whatever) No account inactivity fees or anything of that sort. I don't receive the account activity stuff in the mail, but I do print them out from an online statement. You can request paper statements of course, but I just hate receiving paper in the mail.. I have too many statements anyway. For taxes, you just declare them as capital gains, I don't think there's any confusion there.. fairly simple. I declare 2 things - the interest earned, and the capital gains (or losses as in my rst year of trading forex) The exchange rates really don't matter to me.. but since I trade EUR/USD almost all the time, I kinda have a general idea of what the rates are. Same with AUD/JPY. I can't calculate how many units I can buy with my balance.. I just use the Oanda calcular for that, check their "FX Calculators" sections.. you can calculate stuff from available units, to margin calls, prot calcs, and interest calculators. I just wish I worked at an investment bank so I could do all my forex trades without the spreads.. and of course, get 'hints' on the economic indicators :D
~Shard~
07-08-2006 08:20 PM
Thanks again. I'm seriously going to get back into Forex (as I mentioned way back at the beginning of this thread, I did it once, years ago, realized I didn't know what I was doing, and have never done it since) and I sincerely appreciate such valuable advice. Once I get into it (probably not until this fall, just too busy right now) I'll PM you with further questions if you don't mind. I'm big into the stock market right now, and play it with options, convertible debs, income trusts, a few limited partnerships, and ow-though entities to supplement my general stock trading. If you ever need any tips, etc., just PM me. I have a couple models I follow which have made me signicant amounts of money the past few years with a great deal of consistency - a rarity, I nd, in the stock market these days. :cool:
Crimson
News for Mac users? Hi again,
07-09-2006 07:55 PM
Music_Producer, you have mentioned you use www.tradethenews.com with your PC. Have you ever come across something similar for the devoted Mac user? (Probably silly question since you would probably use it if you had!) I had not planned on buying another computer so I'd love to hear some alternatives for us neglected Mac-fans! :p
Music_Producer
07-10-2006 01:41 AM
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1/15/08 8:09 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Crimson Hi again, Music_Producer, you have mentioned you use www.tradethenews.com with your PC. Have you ever come across something similar for the devoted Mac user? (Probably silly question since you would probably use it if you had!) I had not planned on buying another computer so I'd love to hear some alternatives for us neglected Mac-fans! :p
No such love for us Mac fans :( I have no choice but to use Parallels running XP .. so I can access tradethenews software. I guess everyone thinks Mac users are just creative.. and nothing else :p I'm actually getting ready for this week (Friday).. the Bank of Japan will announce their interest rate decision. If they raise the rates, it will be the rst time in 6 years.. right now its at 0%.. so they might raise it to 0.25%. Anyway, this one's going to be a little weird to trade.. here's why.. The Bank of Japan has been going on about this rate hike since the last month ("Time has now come for us to raise our rates".. "Conditions are perfect for the end of zero interest rate policy" etc) I mean, geez.. like they're telling us everyday that they might end the zero interest rate policy. Ok.. so we get the idea.. and so have the markets. I would think that the markets have already anticipated this move, and I've seen AUD/JPY..USD/JPY drop steadily (but not like crazy) I would think this will keep going on.. until Friday. If they raise rates, the JPY (Yen) *might* go up on that day.. or it might fall..depending on market conditions. It might fall because it has already been appreciating all this time.. and markets will say "enough". On the other hand, if the bank of japan does NOT raise their rates (I'm hoping for this :D ) then..Oh boy! Watch the Yen drop like crazy, because everyone will be selling the Yen. I don't quite trust the bank of japan.. they always talk about raising rates but never do anything.. then again, this time might be different. So, if they raise rates.. I'll just watch the market reaction and will be hesitant to trade.. but if they dont.. you can be assured that i'll be drooling and submitting my 'sell yen' offer like a mad man ;)
Music_Producer
Another fantastic trade
07-11-2006 06:13 AM
The Bank of Canada announced at 9 am EST today, that they are going to leave their interest rate unchanged. Markets were expecting a 0.25% increase, so obviously this was a disappointment..
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I got in, and out fairly quick.. but I should have held on. It moved up about 50 pips after I got out! I traded a huge lot, so 6 pips prot = 6*200 = $1200 :D But I'm still hitting myself for not staying in longer.. 40*200 could have been $8000:eek: Sometimes I seriously think, when I look back at all my trades.. if I had put in huge lots..I could have made enough money to buy a house by now :p I've got to stop being such a chicken.. especially when it comes to interest rate trades, because they really move the market. Once again, watch out for this friday bank of japan's rate decision.
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Crimson
Lot size??
07-12-2006 05:22 PM
Music_Producer - Another silly question... You talked about the lot size in your last post. I nd I get confused because Oanda lets you buy in units. Is it always 100,000 units or pips? Or is unit and pip not the same thing? You mentioned 200? Was that 200 lots? How many pips is that then? 200x100,000?? I'm sorry, I'm getting stuck on the small details. Also, you being from CA... other than 5:30am... are there other times that are commonly useful to you? When trading YEN etc? You're my best source of basic explanations - hope I don't bore you with the fundamental questions. :o
Music_Producer
07-13-2006 03:22 AM
Hey Crimson, units is the term for the quantity of currency you are buying or selling. Pips is the term used for the prot or loss.. for eg. I buy 100,000 units or sell 100,000 units.. and I made 20 pips prot or 20 pips loss. Now a pip can be anywhere from 0.25 USD to 1 USD to 1,000,000000.. depending on how many units you purchase/sell. For e.g. if I buy 10,000 units of EUR/USD.. 1 pip is equal to 1 USD. So if I make 40 pips prot, I make $40 prot. Similarly, if I buy 100,000 units of EUR/USD.. 1 pip is then $10. So I make 40(pips)*10(value of 1 pip) = $400 prot. You are not restricted to buying 10,000 or 20,000 or 100,000 units, etc. only. You can buy 15,563 or 5999 or 358333.. whatever.. you get the idea. Additionally, remember that you have a margin to play with.. I have a 50:1 margin. So if I have $5000 in my account, I can buy 50*5000 = 250,000 units worth of currency (roughly, depending on the rates) If I'm pretty condent about a trade (for e.g. I know whats going to happen when i see the news report) then I buy a lot of units... from 1 million onwards. When I rst started trading.. I would buy/sell only 10 or 50 units, just for experience. Other trading platforms also give you upto 400:1 margin.. so with $20,000 I could buy $8,00,0000 worth of EUR/USD :eek: Last night (5.30 am PST) the US trade numbers came out.. better than expected..and I knew this would be a market mover, so I sold 2.5 million units of EUR/USD. It went down .. and I got out after a prot of 9 pips. So 2.5 million units make a pip equal to $250. So 250*9 = $2,250 prot that I made in .. well.. a few seconds. The market went down more after a few minutes.. and if I had stuck in there, I could have made 40 pips prot.. thats 250*40 = $10,000. However, you never know when an upswing happens and you're screwed.. so its best to get out early. Don't get too greedy :p Quite honestly, I also do not have the balls to put too much money to make more prot. I mean, its my money.. if I was handling a bank's money.. heck, I would probably put in 1 billion (knowing very well what I was doing of course) Read up about George Soros and how he made 1 billion USD in one day when he traded the Bank of England interest rate decision. Tonight, well there's nothing happening..only weekly claims and I don't think the markets are going to care for that, they're all waiting for tomorrow. I usually trade only EUR/USD and no other currency pairs.. so for
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me the USD reports make more sense, and they come out at 5.30 am PST. Sometimes, interest rates meeting decisions and all those come out much later. I don't trade GBP/USD much because the spread between this pair goes upto 10 pips during important announcements, (with almost every broker) and that's obviously not too good. JPY tomorrow will be interesting.. I'll be ready at 10 pm PST.. lol.. I think its tomorrow.. better check again. If you have a practice account.. be ready.. and good luck!:) Here's my trade for last night -
Crimson
Great! Thanks... I think it makes more sense now! :)
07-13-2006 07:35 AM
I was looking at the EUR/USD chart and saw a spike around midnight PST and then another larger dip around 3:30am today. Any idea what caused those? OK, here's another one for you - I noticed OANDA's quote list gives you the option to deal with EUR/USD (base/quote, right?) but when it comes to the YEN it only gives you the option to deal with USD/YEN, not YEN/USD. Does it matter? Why not quote all currency with the USD as quote currency? Plus, how do you know how the news will move the curve? I realize you have a rm grasp of nancial news and their impact on the currency, but as in the case with the US trade numbers, how did you know which way the curve would move? Are there books you recommend? Sites? I'm about to sign up for www.tradethenews.com (I know... had to get a PC :p ) and am worried I will feel as clueless of what to do with the news. Was it something that you just learned over time? Big thanks!!!!
Music_Producer
Quote:
07-13-2006 02:30 PM
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Originally Posted by Crimson Great! Thanks... I think it makes more sense now! :) I was looking at the EUR/USD chart and saw a spike around midnight PST and then another larger dip around 3:30am today. Any idea what caused those? OK, here's another one for you - I noticed OANDA's quote list gives you the option to deal with EUR/USD (base/quote, right?) but when it comes to the YEN it only gives you the option to deal with USD/YEN, not YEN/USD. Does it matter? Why not quote all currency with the USD as quote currency? Plus, how do you know how the news will move the curve? I realize you have a rm grasp of nancial news and their impact on the currency, but as in the case with the US trade numbers, how did you know which way the curve would move? Are there books you recommend? Sites? I'm about to sign up for www.tradethenews.com (I know... had to get a PC :p ) and am worried I will feel as clueless of what to do with the news. Was it something that you just learned over time? Big thanks!!!!
Crimson..nooooo.. dont get a pc just for news! :p Do you have an intel mac or a ppc one? If you have an intel mac just install parallels.. runs extremely fast.. in fact, its faster than my AMD Athlon 64 laptop. :D I don't know what caused the moves at the times you mentioned.. because I wasn't paying attention. There could be a number of reasons.. news reports come out in various european countries, so that could have affected it.. or just banks buying and selling. The USD is also sensitive to geopolitical news like Israel bombing Beirut.. and I don't quite like whats going on right now in the mideast.. makes markets nervous. As for currency pairing.. they are set in the way you see them, so that its easier to trade. I mean imagine, if you had to see real time numbers for USD/EUR.EUR/USD.AUD/JPY.JPY/AUD - for just 2 currency pairs.. you have 4 numbers to watch. So it makes sense just to stick to 1 format.. and then you can either buy them or sell them. Now I don't know why they don't have the USD as the base currency for everything.. remember, its a global market.. so they don't really give that much importance to us :D How do i know what the news will do to the markets? Pretty simple. First, look at the headlines and analyze them.. i.e. have a basic sense of what the report means. Trade numbers are important, so are jobless claims, employment numbers, import and export (thats trade anyway) interest rates, ppi and cpi numbers and so on. A lot of news reports are not that important. Then you compare the current report to the previous one.. and to market expectations. If the markets expect 200 k jobless claims.. and the actual report is 300k.. you can bet that the USD will go down. If it comes out to exactly 200 k.. then I wont trade. If its 180k or lower, I'll buy the USD For e.g. last night, I mentioned that I won't be trading.. but I noticed the weekly employment claims were due at 5.30 am PST. I didn't think it would be a big market mover, but tempted as I was.. I went ahead with the trade. The employment claims came out a little worse than expected.. and so I bought EUR/USD. A few seconds later.. it went down.. by about 6 or 7 pips and I was thinking to myself "Oh great, my rst loss!" I held on as the chart stopped moving.. and after about 10 minutes, it nally went up .. I took my 5 pips prot.. and it still kept going up. I factored 2 things when i went into this trade - 1. Obviously the employment numbers and 2. Israel attacking beirut - thats bad news for the dollar. And yup, I learned the news stuff over time. I have wasted a lot of money over software signals - like forex indicators and all that crap. They send you text messages on your cell phone.. indicating something is going to happen. So I would wake up at 3 am.. sometimes multiple times during the night.. trade as they wanted me to.. and 90% of the time, they were losses. Of course, if you go to their websites they only advertise the trades which were successful. Dont waste your money on books, or site subscriptions (except news stuff) .. its not worth it. Just practice a lot, regularly.. and look at why the currencies move the way they do. Hope this
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helps!
Hoef
07-13-2006 07:35 PM
What do you think of the USD/JPY? Is the expectancy of the interest increase in Japan already factored into the price? (USD increasing vs JPY)
Music_Producer
07-13-2006 08:46 PM
I feel like the banks are buying as much USD/JPY as possible before the rate hike.. and when the BOJ raises the rates.. they're going to sell the USD like rabid dogs.. lol.. pardon the expression here. Thats my theory though.. The rate hike would have to be factored in anyway, as talk about it has been going on for months. There are too many things going on today.. the interest rate decision.. and then there will be the actual speech given by the BOJ chairman.. if he's dovish I would see the JPY drop (after it goes up) There are also some rumors of a 50bps hike (I dont think that will happen) and if that occurs.. you'll see the JPY go up and up.. To make matters worse.. there is no exact timing as to the rate announcement.. some say its 12 midnight EST.. 1am..2am..etc. So I just have to wait and watch
Music_Producer
07-14-2006 01:04 AM
ITs been a rollercoaster so far with the USD/JPY but my trade went well! As expected, the BOJ announced 25 bps hike.. ending the 0% interest policy after 6 years. Markets expected this, and the USD/JPY dropped 30 pips. I got in right on top.. but held on.. mistake.. the chart went back up to where I bought it.. and further up.. to about 116.10 or 116.20. I didn't have a stop loss.. so I have been waiting for the last 2 hours.. it nally went down to 115.60.. and thats when I closed my trade for 30 pips. A good trade, very satisfying.. but had me on the edge of my seat :eek: I also took into account that when the BOJ decision was announced.. the London markets (and obviously the US) were not open.. so action was relatively lagging. I still expect the USD/JPY to drop to 113.. and the Aussie $ to drop against the JPY as well. I'll be up all night to see where this goes.. and see if I can capture more pips.
~Shard~
07-14-2006 10:43 AM
I know you've discussed it above Music_Producer, but I just wanted to clarify/ask your opinion. I'll be opening a demo account in the near future now that I've done some more research myself, read your very helpful comments, etc. and want to know who should should go with. I realize you use Oanda, and from the sounds of it, in terms of their pip spreads and minimal "trying to screw you over" techniques, they sound solid. I live in Canada though - is there any issue with me using them, or anything I should be concerned about? Would you strongly recommend going with a Canadian rm, or does it really matter as long as the rm is reputable (as Oanda appears to be)? I have heard of FXCM (thanks to this thread) and FXSolutions as far as what some other Canadians use, but am unsure if they are as reputable, secure and "honest" as Oanda, for instance. The whole thing about
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changing pip spreads, screwing around with your margin, etc. has shown me that you have to be very careful, pay attention to detail and make sure you're not getting screwed. :cool: Any further advice or thoughts would be appreciated. I'll eventually use real money with whomever I sign up with (barring a horrible experience), so I'd ideally like to make the right call right off the bat before I begin 2-3 months of demo trading with someone.
Music_Producer
Quote:
07-14-2006 06:12 PM
Originally Posted by ~Shard~ I know you've discussed it above Music_Producer, but I just wanted to clarify/ask your opinion. I'll be opening a demo account in the near future now that I've done some more research myself, read your very helpful comments, etc. and want to know who should should go with. I realize you use Oanda, and from the sounds of it, in terms of their pip spreads and minimal "trying to screw you over" techniques, they sound solid. I live in Canada though - is there any issue with me using them, or anything I should be concerned about? Would you strongly recommend going with a Canadian rm, or does it really matter as long as the rm is reputable (as Oanda appears to be)? I have heard of FXCM (thanks to this thread) and FXSolutions as far as what some other Canadians use, but am unsure if they are as reputable, secure and "honest" as Oanda, for instance. The whole thing about changing pip spreads, screwing around with your margin, etc. has shown me that you have to be very careful, pay attention to detail and make sure you're not getting screwed. :cool: Any further advice or thoughts would be appreciated. I'll eventually use real money with whomever I sign up with (barring a horrible experience), so I'd ideally like to make the right call right off the bat before I begin 2-3 months of demo trading with someone.
Hey Shard.. I highly recommend Oanda.. last night when I carried out my trade with Oanda.. I tried the same with FXCM and I got that same old "Waiting for the operator" message.. or "This trade was not executed as the market has moved" That was it, I closed my FXCM account and had my money wired back to my account. I have never had a trade delayed or blocked on the Oanda platform, I don't think it really matters where the forex rm is based.. as long as its reputable. Additionally, your balance earns interest everyday in Oanda, I have yet to see FXCM offer that, they'll take interest from you, but they'll never pay you interest that they owe. Open your demo account with Oanda and check it out. The platform might take a little while getting used to (its grey and ugly) buy it works great. :)
~Shard~
Thanks Music_Producer - as always it's appreciated. :cool:
07-14-2006 10:26 PM
I'll give Oanda a try then, and unless I'm really disappointed with it (which sounds unlikely based on your feedback) I'll stick with it and txfer some money in in a few months when I'm ready.
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P.S You don't work for Oanda and are therefore biased, are you? j/k :p ;) :D
Music_Producer
07-15-2006 12:34 AM
I wish I worked for a trading rm Shard! I'd have so many tips and I could be a billionaire soon enough :p I'm still keeping an eye on JPY..like I mentioned, trading is great as long as there are no external factors involved.. such as this stupid israeli-lebanon crisis, plus the NK factor. The Yen is being hammered due to high oil prices, and tensions due to North Korea. If these 2 were not present (or are solved soon enough) you will see the Yen go up. Everyone seeks the US dollar as a safe refuge during war time (and gold of course) Its exactly the opposite for the US stock market though, you will see the stock markets crash.. while the $ goes up. In fact, last night when the US retail sales came out weaker than expected.. I actually *bought* the USD (when usually i would sell it) and i was right.. the $ still went up! :eek: Apparently no one wanted to sell the dollar before the end of the market day. Lets see what happens on monday, but if this war stuff goes on, the Yen won't be boosted.. not even a rate hike can help. Kinda sucks though, as i was hoping for a 300 pip drop (USD/JPY) The timing of the Yen rate hike and the Israel+Nk combo couldn't have been worse! :mad:
~Shard~
07-15-2006 11:09 AM
Well, I signed up for my demo account with Oanda. Just wondering Music_Producer, what do you usually prefer to have your settings at in terms of time intervals (5 sec?), the overall time period being shown and the vertical pip scale? Obviously this depends what type of trade you're carrying out (as in your trades which only last a few seconds) but just thought I'd ask. Going down to the smallest intervals is good, however it's nice to also see the previous trends over the past few hours or even days I nd, so just curious. And in your case, the second you submit your buy/sell order, you essentially open up another order window and frantically type in the corresponding lots to sell/buy and have your nger on your mouse button as you watch the chart and bid/ask spread? ;)
Hoef
Quote:
07-15-2006 12:27 PM
Originally Posted by ~Shard~ And in your case, the second you submit your buy/sell order, you essentially open up another order window and frantically type in the corresponding lots to sell/buy and have your nger on your mouse button as you watch the chart and bid/ask spread? ;)
I have played around with the oanda account and yet have to make a $, but is fun and interesting. I try to contain myself by not playing with insane amounts of money (simlate reallife experience). The nice thing is when you submit your order, you can close it out by clicking the active trade in your trades "tab". Fairly quick (though I am not quick enough ;) )
Crimson
Tomorrow's news
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07-16-2006 05:06 PM
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Hi again, I got the news off Oanda for tomorrow and would like your thoughts on it. Is any of these news going to affect the markets? Just want to see how you look at news like these and your interpretation. Then if you don't mind, maybe you can explain why a certain number will move a currency, and how you gure out if the direction will go up or down. Just picking your brain some more! :)
Music_Producer
07-16-2006 05:42 PM
Hey Shard, I have my units already entered in the buy/sell window.. and all I am waiting for is the report.. and i select either buy or sell.. and then hit 'submit'. If I waste time entering the number of units when the report comes out.. it'll be too late! :) I keep my charts at 15 min intervals, to get a picture of what the currencies have been doing all day in the 3 markets - Tokyo, London and US. Hoef, you will get quicker as you practice enough. Crimson, I will be looking at all 3 news for tomorrow.. but the industrial production and capacity utilization is more important. The empire survey is just a survey, its not like its a consumer condence report or anything. If the two conict i,e, industrial production is higher than expected, and capacity utilization is lower than expected.. I won't trade. If both of them are higher than expected, I will sell the EUR/USD and if lower.. then I'll buy the EUR/USD. Whenever these kind of news are expected, don't trade (if you're not condent) Usually one news-result type trades work the best.. because you just have to worry about one thing.. and not be concerned with conicting numbers and all that jazz. I will also be looking at the charts when the London markets open to see what the USD does.. because of the war in Israel i.e. if there is any effect on the US$ in general.
Music_Producer
07-16-2006 05:43 PM
Oh, and Hoef.. as soon as I buy or sell anything.. and the trade shows up in the 'open trades' sections.. I immediately click on it.. so the "Close Trade" window pops up. I then have my cursor on the 'submit' button.. so that i can close it as soon as i make a good prot.
njmac
07-16-2006 05:52 PM
Music_Producer, you seem to have a real talent for this! You haven't lost a trade in 3+ months right? :) I opened an Oanda Game account and am hoping to be as successful you are. If I do well I'd be more than happy to buy you a beer for all of the amazing advice you've given here. It's hard to know who to trust and you have never asked anything from us and have answered every question. :cool: thank you! I hope you will continue to tell us the news to look out for during the week so we can all game trade along with you. I almost feel like I need a degree in economics. :)
Crimson
Quote:
07-16-2006 08:00 PM
Originally Posted by njmac Music_Producer, you seem to have a real talent for this! You haven't lost a trade in 3+ months right? :)
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I opened an Oanda Game account and am hoping to be as successful you are. If I do well I'd be more than happy to buy you a beer for all of the amazing advice you've given here. It's hard to know who to trust and you have never asked anything from us and have answered every question. :cool: thank you! I hope you will continue to tell us the news to look out for during the week so we can all game trade along with you. I almost feel like I need a degree in economics. :)
I couldn't agree more!!! A huge thanks!!!! :)
~Shard~
Quote:
07-16-2006 08:58 PM
Originally Posted by Crimson I couldn't agree more!!! A huge thanks!!!! :)
Adding on my thanks as well. :) Please keep the advice coming and the updates on how your trades go. The best way to learn (besides doing of course!) is by example! :cool:
Music_Producer
You're welcome guys! :D
07-17-2006 05:43 AM
Now comes some advance trading..hehe.. somehow I have a feeling that today, even if the US data comes out lower than expected.. the USD will go up (maybe a tiny spike down but thats it) Its 5.35 am PST right now.. waiting for the 6.15 am news. The USD has gone up like crazy since the last 4-6 hours.. all because of the war. Investment banks seem to be buying gold, the Swiss Franc (CHF) and the USD.. why the US$? Because its a safe investment.. and the US economy doesn't look like its in trouble right now. Logically, the US $ is supposed to go down during war, and so are the stock markets.. but I assume thats if the war involves the US. Right now its just the middle eastern jazz thats going on, and the Nkorea drama.. so the USD is safer than other currencies. Well since the last few minutes that I've typed this.. the Euro has gone down by about 15 pips.. and keeps dropping against the USD. So if you have a game account.. trade.. if not, don't put your money on this one. I'm not doing anything.. I'm just going to see.. I think the EUR will go down even if the US news is bad (after, a small corrective spike) If there was no war going on, I would trade with condence today, as the currencies wouldn't be affected by anything other than economic data. I hope these idiots resolve their differences.. for humanitarian reasons and for the markets as well.
Music_Producer
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07-17-2006 05:47 AM
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Originally Posted by njmac Music_Producer, you seem to have a real talent for this! You haven't lost a trade in 3+ months right? :) I opened an Oanda Game account and am hoping to be as successful you are. If I do well I'd be more than happy to buy you a beer for all of the amazing advice you've given here. It's hard to know who to trust and you have never asked anything from us and have answered every question. :cool: thank you! I hope you will continue to tell us the news to look out for during the week so we can all game trade along with you. I almost feel like I need a degree in economics. :)
Yup, haven't lost a trade in more than 3 months now :) Almost did.. during that JPY interest rate hike.. but thats because I didn't exit fast enough..I was 'waiting' for a 100 pip drop.. without thinking about the war going on. When you get greedy.. thats when you get slammed. I did make a prot though, but it was after a few anxious minutes. Practice and practice.. and don't listen to people on forex forums and their various 'methods' of guring out where the currencies are going to be in the next month or so (believe me - they have everything - from crystal balls to emotional index of the currencies.. :eek: ) I won't ask anything from you guys.. just that beer and maybe a few mac related troubleshooting tips :D
Crimson
07-17-2006 07:42 AM
Music_Producer... Living in CA it seems that most trading is done very early in the morning! Do you plan your day around the newsreports? And Monday mornings, what time do you start checking the charts? I guess I still need the dicipline to set my alarm a bit earlier! :o Do you still work full time? And what about vacation... do you actually take breaks at times? (Not bringing the laptop to the beach? :) ) Thanks for the morning update. It's great to look at the charts and read your postings at the same time! Very helpful to gain a better understanding!!!!
Curren~Sea
07-17-2006 10:03 AM
Good job MP, keep up the good work! I think you are a classic example of a person who has found a good strategy and is using it consistently for some nice prots. Also, you seem to have very realistic goals in achieving just a few pips at a time, but your trades are all very high probability.
Music_Producer
07-17-2006 03:10 PM
Crimson, I am a nightowl.. so I was usually up till 3-4am anyway.. when I started doing Forex.. I just thought ' what the heck.. might as well stay up till 5.30-6'. I can never wake up with an alarm ..never that early in the morning :eek: I'd rather stay up all night to catch a 7 am ight.. then sleep at 10 pm and wake up at 5 am and get ready and all that! Also, going to the gym and working out at 2.30 am or so really helps. Vacation and forex? You must be kidding me.. the wife will probably throw me outta the house :p No I just do forex at home, a lot of people do it full time.. I know I could but I still can't see myself doing that.. not yet. I'm 29 and I don't think I want to be called an 'investor' :D Curren~Sea.. yup.. with my method the pips are small.. last night, although I didn't trade.. the EUR/USD did go down about 20 pips after the news came out (The industrial production and capacity utilization were
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better than expected) And just as I had predicted, the EUR/USD has still been going down. I'd rather make small but consistent prots. I mean heck, Bill Gates just lost $600 million in the forex market.. I wonder what the hell he was doing. With that kind of money.. I'd just be investing in forex for the interest trade!
Curren~Sea
07-17-2006 05:00 PM
That was one of the rst things I had to learn... if the currency keeps going after I closed in prot - be happy! I used to feel like I was missing out because the "guru's" always say to let your winners run. But if I got out of a trade for good reasons then I learned to be happy with it because I made the decisions with the best info I had at the time. I'm not there yet... almost... I hope to be a full time trader within the next few months, perhaps by October. But that also leaves me time to work on real estate projects too. Wasn't it Warren Buffett who shorted the USD a couple years ago and lost about 600million? That was his rst (and only) foray into FX trading as far as I know. But even then, he only risked a small percentage of his total account. For people like that, it's just another zero!
Music_Producer
07-18-2006 01:42 AM
I believe both Buffet and Gates lost money in Forex.. well they are best friends apparently. I can just imagine them sitting together in front of the screen going "Ooooh.. lets buy 1 billion lots of EUR/USD and see what happens".. and it goes up.. just before they hit 'close' the PC freezes :p Here's the GBP trade I placed today.. the pip spread was pretty wide on this one, almost 8 pips, but I went ahead since it was an important event - the CPI numbers from the UK. They came out at 0.3% .. better than expected (0.1%) and the pound quickly shot up by about 35 pips, out of which .. I got to grab 10 pips. You also see a correctional 'dip' and then it shoots back up - bringing the total rise to 45 pips.
The dollar's strength is preventing the GBP from shooting up further, if by some miracle, the war's called off anytime, look for the dollar to fall. The next trade I am looking for is at 5.30 am PST.. the US CPI and PPI numbers.
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Music_Producer
07-18-2006 01:45 AM
Is there any way to prevent the Grab application from saving my selection as a TIFF le? :confused: I'd nd it easier if i can save it as gif/jpg so i can attach the pictures here easily.. instead of uploading it and all that.
~Shard~
Quote:
07-18-2006 06:18 AM
Originally Posted by Music_Producer Is there any way to prevent the Grab application from saving my selection as a TIFF le? :confused: I'd nd it easier if i can save it as gif/jpg so i can attach the pictures here easily.. instead of uploading it and all that.
You could try doing a screen capture using cmd-shift-3 and selecting your Oanada window as the desired area. That allows you to select what part of the screen you want captured. It should then save the grab to your desktop as a PDF or JPG by default (depending if you're on Panther or Tiger). Even if it's a PDF, just open it in Preview then export - piece of cake... Let me know if this is easier for you.
Music_Producer
07-18-2006 07:16 AM
Thats great Shard - thanks for the tip! :) Just nished trading the USD PPI numbers and made about 6 pips. I am still pretty slow compared to the other traders.. so here's one more question..sorry to bug you :D Is there any way I can have 2 cursors on my screen?? You know, so i can have one on 'submit' and one on 'buy' or 'sell'.. logically I don't think its possible.. but you think? That would drastically cut down my lag while trading. One nger would be on the trackpad.. and the other on the mouse button. :p
~Shard~
Quote:
07-18-2006 08:06 AM
Originally Posted by Music_Producer Thats great Shard - thanks for the tip! :) Just nished trading the USD PPI numbers and made about 6 pips. I am still pretty slow compared to the other traders.. so here's one more question..sorry to bug you :D Is there any way I can have 2 cursors on my screen?? You know, so i can have one on 'submit' and one on 'buy' or 'sell'.. logically I don't think its possible.. but you think? That would drastically cut down my lag while trading. One nger would be on the trackpad.. and the other on the mouse button. :p
No worries - it's the least I can do for all your great advice in this thread. ;) :) Unfortunately, I know no way of having 2 cursors on the screen as you suggest. The only thing I can think of that would be quicker would be if the Oanda application has some hot keys, or quick key combination to execute commands, like a cmd-whatever. If you're quick on the keyboard, this could be faster than using the
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mouse, but perhaps not.
Crimson
area grab
07-18-2006 05:48 PM
The cmd-shift-3 is great but I also nd that cmd-shift-4 works better when I need a specic area of the screen. The cursor will turn into a cross hair that you drag around the desired area!
Music_Producer
07-18-2006 05:54 PM
Thanks Crimson and Shard.. it'll be a lot easier for me to post images now. Oanda apparently has API - so you can program the trading platform? :confused: I am not sure if thats what API means.. but I have heard that a few people have customised their oanda trading platform, and maybe thats how they incorporated the quick keys for 'buy' and 'sell'. I would have no idea about programming though.. maybe if you guys do, you could create a customised solution. The EUR is still dropping.. been dropping since yesterday like I mentioned.. because the USD is getting stronger (the war) and the Fed chief is going to let us know what he thinks of the economy.. I think thats tomorrow morning, not sure.. will check later. Also just read that NKorea has put their military on alert. I wonder what the hell they're planning now :mad: Anyway JPY has dropped 50 pips so far because of this news.
~Shard~
Quote:
07-18-2006 05:57 PM
Originally Posted by Crimson The cmd-shift-3 is great but I also nd that cmd-shift-4 works better when I need a specic area of the screen. The cursor will turn into a cross hair that you drag around the desired area!
Actually, that's the one I was referring to! :o ;) Thanks, I obviously got my -3 and -4 mixed up. :) For various other hotkeys (at least in Panther) check this out. It's a couple years old now, but still a handy resource. :cool:
Music_Producer
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07-19-2006 01:41 AM
The Bank of England had a unanimous decision regarding the rates, and they are not going to raise it anytime soon. Unfortunately I got the news a little late, so I jumped in by the time most of the action was over. The GBP dipped 50 pips against the USD.. and I got in at 2 points (sold GBP/USD) .. making only about 4 pips total.. better than nothing though. I would still expect the GBP to fall against the USD..but I am not going to enter the trade now.. its time to go to gym :) Attachment 53005
Music_Producer
07-19-2006 05:48 AM
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Last time I trade with another broker

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I tried FXDD this time (before the US CPI numbers were due) I had a 'feeling' that the Euro would drop against the USD because of increased CPI (it came out 0.3% instead of expected 0.2%) So I had 2 windows open.. one was the Oanda window.. and the other parallels - running FXDD and tradethenews. I sold the EUR/USD on FXDD *before* the news came out.. I just had a hunch.. and besides, the Fed chief is going to talk today at 10 am EST.. so the USD should go higher. So I am looking from side to side (macbook screen to 19 inch lcd) The news came out and the Euro dropped a massive 35 pips. It dropped ultra fast.. so I said 'screw oanda'.. let me capture my prots on FXDD.. since it showed a prot of 35 pips. Guess what? I clicked 'close' and it said "Sorry, this trade has not been executed since the market has moved" WTF?? I must have clicked 'close' multiple times.. like a maniac yelling 'Give me my prot!!' Finally it closed, but i got 15 pips instead of 35 pips. :mad: I was pissed, so I turned back to Oanda.. and traded on the 'correctional' patterns. After every dip or rise, usually there are correctional dips (or rises) and I traded those.. and got about 10 pips total.. so 25 pips in all. Good day today - 25+4 pips = 29 pips (29 * 50 = $1450) but I've been taught a lesson.. don't try stunts while trading :eek: And, I shouldn't have sold the EUR before the news, I know.. I know I made a prot.. but.. had it gone the reverse direction? Another thing I am looking at.. besides trading the news (where the main spike occurs) is the correctional dip/rise. As soon as there's the big spike/rise.. there's a correction (most of the time) and I am thinking.. what if I trade that as well? Hmm.. just a thought.. let me know what you guys think. I traded the corrections today, and I was lucky. Attachment 53015
Curren~Sea
07-19-2006 09:45 AM
I tried trading the CPI news today also on FXCM (Man) and I had to keep clicking on it to execute. When they nally lled my order, the move was over and I was stuck in a losing trade. Then of course Bernanke opened his pie hole... Needless to say it was a losing day for me thanks to my trade station. That's it for me... I'm switching to Oanda. For long term trades FXCM or any other platform is probably ne but for quick pips we need a broker/platform that doesn't screw us around.
Crimson
Today's chart
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07-19-2006 03:52 PM
Any thoughts on what caused the completely horizontal section in the chart between 8:30am to around 10am today? Just curious if you had some thougths?
Music_Producer
07-19-2006 03:54 PM
Curren~Sea.. actually you could have made a prot on Bernanke's statement. That was scheduled for 10 am EST.. and I was playing with my Oanda game account (I wish I had logged into my real account.. but i
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was satised with my prot for the day) So anyway, soon as I got the news.. I jumped in.. and Oanda executed beautifully.. and the Euro soared.. for quite some time, and I made $7100 prot :eek: :D God damn i wish i was trading with my real money!! I'll stick with oanda too.. their speed of execution is unmatched, AND they pay interest on my balance and trades (interest positive trades) Don't worry curren~sea.. there are lots of opportunities to make that loss back into a prot :)
Music_Producer
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07-19-2006 03:59 PM
Originally Posted by Crimson Any thoughts on what caused the completely horizontal section in the chart between 8:30am to around 10am today? Just curious if you had some thougths?
Crimson, no clue.. I was asleep at that time.. that's just prot taking, the Euro had been sold relentlessly since the last 2 days, so banks gured its time to make some prot. I never enter the markets out of my specied time.. I never know when I can be caught in the upswings/downswings. Btw.. that rise was nothing compared to the one when Bernanke made his speech (and when i could have made $7100 in real money :mad: ) Here's my game trade: Attachment 53055
Curren~Sea
07-20-2006 10:17 AM
Yep, I would have like to trade Bernanke but I was doing *work* (which I hope to someday not be doing). At rst I was put off by Oanda's trade station but I'm getting more comfortable with it and it has some very nice features. Everyone I talk to about it or almost every post on the net about Oanda is positive, which is far better than most other FX brokers/trading companies. The biggest negative is their very low leverage of 50:1. I realize I can trade less than a standard lot (100,000 base currency) but it takes a larger account balance to secure trades. However, this should not be an issue if a person is risking no more than 5% of their account balance on any given position. I also like the Oanda charts. FX Trek charts are better, for sure, but the Oanda charts are very good for free java based charts.

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njmac
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07-20-2006 10:20 AM
Originally Posted by Curren~Sea The biggest negative is their very low leverage of 50:1. I realize I can trade less than a standard lot (100,000 base currency) but it takes a larger account balance to secure trades.
What does this mean? What happens if you trade less than a standard lot?
Curren~Sea
07-20-2006 11:04 AM
If you trade a standard lot, you are trading a $100,000 block of currency and if it goes one pip in your direction then you make $10 per pip. If you trade less than a standard lot, say a $50,000 block of currency then you're getting $5 per pip. Oanda lets you determine exactly the size of the currency block you want to trade. So you can trade $23,456, or $198,290, or even $1. Of course, the smaller your block then the less worth for each pip of movement. Other companies will only let you trade blocks of 100,000 if you have a standard account, or blocks of 10,000 if you have a mini account. Does that make sense? The best way to learn about it is to open a practice (game) account and trade trade trade. Don't worry about making or losing money, just learn the mechanics of trading. Once you know how to open, close, modify trades, then you can work on your strategies.
njmac
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07-20-2006 11:19 AM
Originally Posted by Curren~Sea Does that make sense?
Ahh, ok. You mean that without the extra leverage, its harder to trade a $100,000.00 lot? Thanks for the response. I did get a game account but it is still very, very confusing. :)
Curren~Sea
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07-20-2006 11:39 AM
Originally Posted by njmac Ahh, ok. You mean that without the extra leverage, its harder to trade a $100,000.00 lot? Thanks for the response. I did get a game account but it is still very, very confusing. :)
Yes, with 100:1 leverage it would only take 1000 to secure a 100,000 lot. Therefore, with lower leverage you can trade fewer lots. But as mentioned, that should never be a big issue. Plan to practice and play for a few months at least. I'm a software engineer and most applications come pretty easily to me, but it still took time for me to learn how to navigate around the various trading platforms that I've tried. Plus, learning all of the trading concepts and terminology takes awhile.
Curren~Sea
07-21-2006 12:02 PM
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MP, do you ever use Oanda FXNews, and if so is it very fast during announcements? Or, do you just use Trade the News? And if so, how is that? I have found that I don't realy need to see the news... all I have to do is watch the charts and the spike tells the story.
Music_Producer
07-22-2006 10:59 AM
Crimson, thats the cardinal sin of forex trading. Look at the few examples above, and you will see the spike in the opposite direction, and then quickly change at the same time. This happens all the time, so don't go on that alone.. you will hit your stop loss quicker than you can blink. Tradethenews is faster than oanda's news - in fact, on thursday night the Canadian data came out way faster on tradethenews than oanda's news server.. and I was able to make 40 pips. I am sorry I have not posted any trades, thats because there was only trade I did since Wednesday. My wife's pet cat passed away that day - was run over by a car.. and she, as well as I are deeply affected by that. She had him for 13 years, and I just don't feel like doing anything these days..the loss is too much. :(
njmac
Sorry about your cat :( My cat was hit by a car a few years ago, and I'm still not completely over it.
07-22-2006 11:08 AM
Glad to hear you make 40 pips though :) Im having a hard time knowing which news to follow and how it is affecting the prices. I've made about 40 pips just guessing this week - just see how the mechanics of trading works. I'm going to start taking notes on the announcements and will subscribe to trade the news and see if I can make some (pretend)money. You should start doubling your money on trades because you have such a great track record, you could make some serious money :cool:
Curren~Sea
For US announcements, Yahoo has a good calendar complete with rating each announcement's relative importance. http://biz.yahoo.com/c/e.html Forex Factory is also good. http://forexfactory.com/ DailyFX lists both US and Global announcements. http://www.dailyfx.com/calendar/brieng/ http://www.dailyfx.com/story/calenda...514863050.html None of the sites above provide instant feeds for breaking data, but they will let you plan your trades. Sorry about your cat MP.
07-22-2006 11:50 AM
Crimson
Think this one's for you Curren_Sea!
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07-25-2006 05:37 PM
Originally Posted by Music_Producer Crimson, thats the cardinal sin of forex trading. Look at the few examples above, and you will see the spike in the opposite direction, and then quickly change at the same time. This happens all the time, so don't go on that alone.. you will hit your stop loss quicker than you can blink. Tradethenews is faster than oanda's news - in fact, on thursday night the Canadian data came out way faster on tradethenews than oanda's news server.. and I was able to make 40 pips.
Curren_Sea, just thought this one was for your post about reading charts. MP, I'm so sorry to hear about the cat... I accidentally ran over my own a few years back and it still haunts me. I'm really sorry for your loss! Don't forget us all though! We need you! (I'm probably taking a week or so off from Oanda since I'm due to have a baby any day now - today was the expected due date so I'm a bit scatterbrained!) But I'll be back with more questions!!!
Curren~Sea
07-26-2006 09:32 AM
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Yeah, I gured that was meant for me. I've followed big announcements for over a year and by far in the great majority of them the rst spike tells you the direction. There have only been a couple of times that I remember where it immediately reversed and those were due to corrections in the announcement text. I've been watching Oanda's FXNews and it's pretty fast, certainly fast enough to trade off of. I took a few pips off of the Tuesday CPI and I'm planning on taking more from Thursday morning's slew of announcements. My Oanda account is setup and fully funded. The more I play around with it, the more I like it. It was a nice greeting when I saw my funds in there along with an interest payment for the day. If nothing else, at least I am getting decent interest on my money. Good luck with the delivery - I hope everything comes out ok :) I've been through that a couple of times and it's an amazing experience.
njmac
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07-26-2006 01:24 PM
What happened today that caused this spike?
The only signicant news today seemed to be about gold :confused: EDIT: aaahhh... I guess it was this news about the feds Beige Book. Its really difcult to understand what news is important! And just to get a basic straight: The news was not great for the US, so the Euro rose against the dollar? So if the dollar goes down against the euro, we buy (go long) euros/usd? And if the news was good, we would have shorted Eur/USD?
Curren~Sea
07-26-2006 04:08 PM
Basic sentiment that the Fed will not be increasing interest rates, which means the USD is not as attractive for certain kinds of investments. I didn't trade today because I'm waiting for the bigger announcements Thurs morning. I expect to snag a high probability 20-30 pips. On the EUR/USD chart, you "buy" on US dollar weakness or dollar negative announcements (chart rises). "Sell" on US dollar strength (chart falls). Does that make sense?
njmac
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07-26-2006 06:02 PM
Originally Posted by Curren~Sea Basic sentiment that the Fed will not be increasing interest rates, which means the USD is not as attractive for certain kinds of investments. I didn't trade today because I'm waiting for the bigger announcements Thurs morning. I expect to snag a high probability 20-30 pips. On the EUR/USD chart, you "buy" on US dollar weakness or dollar negative announcements (chart rises). "Sell" on US dollar strength (chart falls). Does that make sense?
yes, that makes sense. Thanks :) I am going to trade the thursday morning news. this will be my rst news that I will trade on.
Music_Producer
Back
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07-27-2006 05:40 AM
Hey guys, started trading again today. Has been a depressing week, but the pain has subsided.. just feels better to know that we gave our kitty a long, loved life.. and that he was happy all the way till the end. :) Have saved his fur though, in the event that they can clone him in the future!! (Yes, my wife only wants him back.. not another cat) Ok, so I traded the durable orders today, and as a bonus.. the us jobless rate was lower than expected as well.. so the Eur dropped. Only made about 5 pips as I'm still out of it.. but could have made about 25 pips. I don't like waiting too much though.. new home sales are due at 10 am EST. Attachment 53648 Crimson and curren_sea.. yes i confused you guys.. sorry about that.. my thinking was a little impaired that day..understandably. Good luck with the delivery crimson! Let us know asap about crimson jr. :p
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And nj, just as curren~sea explained.. hawkish and dovish comments really move the market. Here's a funny thing that happens - every time the market 'expects' news that will make the Feds raise interest rates.. they buy the US$. Eventually, the day comes when the Feds do raise the interest rates (widely epected) and what happens? Does the $ rise? No, it falls. Buy the rumors, and sell the news.. perfect example. Remember, its still humans who are doing the trading and they're an emotional bunch.. or rather, a retarded bunch.
Music_Producer
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07-27-2006 07:10 AM
Ok, traded a huge lot right now (2 million units).. and got out with 3 pips (3*200 = $600) With that kind of risk, I get out as fast as I can.. I don't care if its a 1 or 2 pip prot. I got in pretty late as well, I saw the news, but for some reason.. had a little brain lag! Attachment 53657 Could have made 7 pips if i had waited a few seconds more (and 14 pips if i had got in earlier).. but no biggie. Prot is prot. How did you do nj? I have a feeling you got in late, and now you're looking at a eur/usd dip after the initial rise. Remember that this was a very small deviation.. the market was expecting 1.16 million.. and it came out at 1.13 million.. which is a pretty lame deviation. If it was 1 million.. the USD would have dropped 20 pips atleast.. if it was 1.2 or 1.3 million.. the USD would have gone up a lot (also aided by the previous news reports of durable orders and jobless reports)
Music_Producer
07-27-2006 07:13 AM
In case anyone is interested, next week is the Aussie interest rate decision (i think, will have to conrm) Its a good time to look at how the currency will react. Right now AUD is rising, because of expectations that interest rates will be raised.
Curren~Sea
Happy with Oanda today. Made my rst live trades in my new Oanda account today. Three trades, two winners and one loser. Net prot $100.
07-27-2006 10:25 AM
Here's some very simple math that shows the appeal of trading Forex. I was trying to explain this to people yesterday. However, it seems that most people simply do not have the patience, discipline, and money management skills to make FX trading protable, nor do they want to spend the time and energy to acquire these attributes. Anyway, consider this... I put $10,000 USD into an Oanda account. Oanda currently pays 4.8% interest on that balance. It is compounded yearly but they pay it every day, so for example, the rst day they calculate interest on 10,000 and pay me 1.26, the second day they calculate interest on 10,001.26 and pay 1.37, etc. The net result, if I don't touch that money, is ~$500 interest in 12 months. If I take just one extremely high percentage trade per month and I make $100, then I'll make $1200 per year. Total earnings = ~$1700. This is 17% return for almost no risk. Not bad. Now, let's say that after a year I can practically guarantee that I will make 10 pips on my extremely high percentage trade every month. So, instead of one lot, I trade 2 lots. Now, I'm getting $200 per month. Now my yearly return is approaching 30%. Not bad. Keep compounding those earnings and it is easy to see how quickly you can increase your account balance. The key is to be conservative and only take very high percentage trades. Most people overtrade! Trading announcements, as MP as proven, and as I have learned is usually a very high percentage trade. Personally, I also supplement this strategy with the Elliott Wave and chart patterns because these indicators will give me a very clear picture of where the market will move to once it starts moving. Thanks to MP (and many others) for recommending Oanda. I'm happy I switched. Note: I belong to a trading club and we have a live moderated chatroom. During this announcement today, I heard several people complaining that they could not get into their trades because their trade station brokers (FXSOL and FXCM) wouldn't let them. I did not have any problems with Oanda, and the spread stayed nice and tight at around 2 pips.
njmac
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07-27-2006 12:05 PM
Originally Posted by Music_Producer How did you do nj? I have a feeling you got in late, and now you're looking at a eur/usd dip after the initial rise. Remember that this
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was a very small deviation.. the market was expecting 1.16 million.. and it came out at 1.13 million.. which is a pretty lame deviation. If it was 1 million.. the USD would have dropped 20 pips atleast.. if it was 1.2 or 1.3 million.. the USD would have gone up a lot (also aided by the previous news reports of durable orders and jobless reports)
haha, your good... that's exactly what happened to me, I got in late and stayed in too long - the eru/usd dipped and kept dipping all day today. Good thing I'm not using money yet. You did well, you have some track record going :) thanks for the input on what really happend with the announcement.
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Originally Posted by Curren~Sea The key is to be conservative and only take very high percentage trades. Most people overtrade!
Glad you made money today too. It seems very logical, when you are pretty sure how the market will move, get in - capture some pips - get out / all without getting greedy! You're right this is very, very appealing! The trick is knowing how the market will react and you have to know in a split second. I wish I had majored in economics!
Crimson
njmac, Do you use www.TradetheNews.com too? Just curious what else is available. Other than Bloomberg...
07-27-2006 06:47 PM
Music_Producer
Hope you guys traded
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07-28-2006 05:36 AM
Today was a very good trade.. the US GDP was pretty horrid.. 2.5% as compared to expectations of 3-3.2%. I got out early (as always) but sheesh! Look at that spike go up.. after I got out.. and its actually still going up! It went up about 30 pips after I exited.. and that too.. in a nice manner.. no crazy dips or anything. This is the kind of news you want to trade, when expectations get screwed. Grr.. and I had a feeling the US GDP was going to suck.. should have stayed in longer.. but I have that forex trigger happy nger.. to always close my trades fast. Attachment 53726 Update - its still on its way up! Nice 80 pips rise.. and I made about 5 pips :o
Curren~Sea
07-28-2006 09:24 AM
I pulled about 20 this morning. Closed my trade station and charts and went back to bed. That's stress free trading! It used to bother me when I saw how the market kept going after I got out. However, I'm over that now. Every day I am exceeding my goals so it is easy to maintain a very positive attitude about my nancial well-being. That makes a huge difference in daily life. Next week is non-farm payroll on Friday, which will be another biggie. There are a few other announcements that may yield some small moves, but the big one will be on Friday, for sure.
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Originally Posted by Crimson njmac, Do you use www.TradetheNews.com too? Just curious what else is available. Other than Bloomberg...
I've found that the news that comes delivered from Oanda (FXNews) is very fast. For me, that's all I need for breaking news. For the announcement schedule and expectations, I use Forex Factory and Yahoo (linked previously in this thread). I also like to read some of the commentary from DailyFX.
njmac
07-29-2006 10:19 AM
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I don't have Trade the News yet because I don't have a pc. I am just using oanda news and bloomberg.com. So friday is the next big announcement? I swear, I'm not lazy ;) , but can you guys tell me what to expect to happen in detail because I'm really having trouble grasping what is important. I will game trade that news but I want to really understand when to get in, how long to stay in, and how much to wager. The decision to go long/short the EUr/USD needs to made in an instant, so I would love a little hand-holding on this one. THANK YOU!:)
Music_Producer
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07-29-2006 10:48 PM
Originally Posted by njmac I don't have Trade the News yet because I don't have a pc. I am just using oanda news and bloomberg.com. So friday is the next big announcement? I swear, I'm not lazy ;) , but can you guys tell me what to expect to happen in detail because I'm really having trouble grasping what is important. I will game trade that news but I want to really understand when to get in, how long to stay in, and how much to wager. The decision to go long/short the EUr/USD needs to made in an instant, so I would love a little hand-holding on this one. THANK YOU!:)
Hey nj.. just look at what the expected news release is.. and if there's a deviation from it, then the currency will move according to whether the deviation is positive or negative. GDP is fairly simple. It just means the rate of our economy.. if its growing or slowing down (please don't mind my very simple explanations!) They were expecting a GDP of 3% (India has a gdp of 6% or more right now) and the GDP came out 2.5. So obviously that's a signicant slowdown and the USD got hammered. Don't trade interest rate decisions yet, concentrate on the simple stuff. Stuff like jobless reports, home sales, etc. I will let you know beforehand when I am going to trade and what I expect will happen to the market. Question for you guys - Anyone used a tablet pc? They use a stylus if I am not mistaken.. wondering if it would be possible to be faster on that than a mouse.
Hoef
07-30-2006 12:49 PM
Argh .... Everytime I try to switch the graph to another currency pair in OANDA, all my screens go minimized and still show EUR/USD in the end. Might this be because I installed the latest version of Firefox? :mad:
Music_Producer
07-30-2006 05:49 PM
Hoef.. thats weird. I use Oanda on Safari and it works ne. Oh, and I never open other websites while I am about to make a trade. Cnn almost always crashes safari for some odd reason. I need a mac tablet so i can use two stylii (keep one in each hand.. one ready to hit submit.. and the other to hit buy or sell :p )
Curren~Sea
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07-30-2006 10:00 PM
Originally Posted by njmac I don't have Trade the News yet because I don't have a pc. I am just using oanda news and bloomberg.com. So friday is the next big announcement? I swear, I'm not lazy ;) , but can you guys tell me what to expect to happen in detail because I'm really having trouble grasping what is important. I will game trade that news but I want to really understand when to get in, how long to stay in, and how much to wager. The decision to go long/short the EUr/USD needs to made in an instant, so I would love a little hand-holding on this one. THANK YOU!:)
NJ: Go to Forexfactory.com and you'll see very clearly and quickly what the announcements are, their relative importance (red is more important), when the announcement will come out, and what the expectations are. It only takes a few minutes to do your research there. This week also sees very important BOE (UK) and ECB (European) interest rate decisions. I expect this week to be quite volatile (which is good for momentum trades!). Also, I have all kinds of windows/applications open when I'm trading and haven't had any problems whatsoever. oh wait, I'm still on a PC... But I plan on getting a new iMac when the latest revision comes out in Aug (I hope)).
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Hoef
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07-31-2006 04:36 AM
Originally Posted by Music_Producer Hoef.. thats weird. I use Oanda on Safari and it works ne.
Yeah ... Safari still works. Would like to have everything in refox though (used to work until yesterday :mad: )
njmac
07-31-2006 05:39 AM
Originally Posted by Curren~Sea NJ: Go to Forexfactory.com and you'll see very clearly and quickly what the announcements are, their relative importance (red is more important), when the announcement will come out, and what the expectations are. It only takes a few minutes to do your research there. This week also sees very important BOE (UK) and ECB (European) interest rate decisions. I expect this week to be quite volatile (which is good for momentum trades!). Also, I have all kinds of windows/applications open when I'm trading and haven't had any problems whatsoever. oh wait, I'm still on a PC... But I plan on getting a new iMac when the latest revision comes out in Aug (I hope)).
thanks! so for this announcement, I should be ready to trade this announcement on thursday? the second they announce that they will raise rates, I should hit buy, then quickly get out? If they lower rates, I should sell (EUR/USD) then quickly buy again?
Crimson
E-12? Pardon my ignorance here but which country goes by E-12???
07-31-2006 12:08 PM
Curren~Sea
07-31-2006 12:15 PM
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Originally Posted by Crimson Pardon my ignorance here but which country goes by E-12???
That's the 12 nations that share the Euro currency.

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The euro (currency sign: !; banking code: EUR) is the ofcial currency of the European Union member states of Austria, Belgium, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Portugal and Spain, also known as the Eurozone. It is the single currency for over 300 million Europeans.
Crimson
07-31-2006 12:19 PM
Thanks Curren_Sea - I thought that might be it but I also had the silly notion they just went by EUR. I should have known that since I'm European...:o
Music_Producer
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07-31-2006 02:35 PM
Originally Posted by njmac thanks! so for this announcement, I should be ready to trade this announcement on thursday? the second they announce that they will raise rates, I should hit buy, then quickly get out? If they lower rates, I should sell (EUR/USD) then quickly buy again?
NEVER trade interest rate decisions like that! What happened when the ECB raised interest rates? The EUR dropped! What happened when the US raised interest rates? The USD dropped too. Logically, the currency should rise when the interest rate is hiked, but.. This is what happens when you guys don't read my posts :mad: I mentioned about 'hawkish' and 'dovish' and market expectations. When the market expects a 25 bps hike for a long time.. and that is exactly what happens, most of the time, the currency drops. There might be a very minor spike earlier, but then it drops. This is what I have seen in all cases till now..including the much hyped JPY rate hike. Trading interest rate decisions is extremely tricky.. you *have* to read the news everyday to see what the market is expecting. Like I mentioned that the JPY rate hike story has been going on for months, so the market was expecting it..and when it nally came.. the JPY dropped and dropped. Buy the rumors and sell the news. If you're a newbie, don't trade with real money on interest rate decisions.
njmac
I need to go back and read all the posts again. I have a feeling I am making this way more difcult than it needs to be.
07-31-2006 04:55 PM
Music_Producer
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08-01-2006 12:23 AM
no you're not.. Posted its just the impatient you :D Trading every report is fairly simple *except* for interest rate decisions. Its all on market Originally by njmac expectations. Trust me, when I read what you typed earlier.. I kinda reacted like "oh hell no nj! You're gonna lose all yer money mate!" I need to go back and read all the posts again. You I will see market move up and down wildly after an interest rate announcement. One thing's for sure though.. if the nance ministry have athe feeling I am making this way more difcult than it needs to be. does exactly opposite of market expectations, the market will move accordingly.
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For e.g. people were expecting the ECB to raise interest rates (hypothetical situation) for the EUR to appreciate.. but when the day came.. the ECB did nothing. The EUR will drop. How do you estimate what the market expectations are? Well I just look at the news (and what the bank analysts say) the day the interest rate decision is to be announced. I read every analyst's opinion.. and they usually reect the market sentiment very accurately. I don't physically work in a currency trading market, so I have no possible idea of knowing what the expectations are.. so by reading these reports, I get a 'feel' of what the markets have been doing.
Music_Producer
08-01-2006 05:04 AM
Ok, i'm getting ready to trade in a few minutes.. 5.30 am PST and 7 am PST. Doesn't look like there will be much action today, so i might not trade. The one at 7 am is more important than the one at 5.30.. but i doubt i'll be awake till 7! Also, i forgot to post a trade on the morning of Jul 31.. it was the Canadian GDP.. and it was the same as before, no growth whatsoever. I got out quick, and made about 5 pips..but the USD kept going up for about 20-30 pips. The USD was stronger that morning anyway.. if anyone's awake..post! :)
Music_Producer
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08-01-2006 05:39 AM
Well, like I mentioned before.. I expected this report to be dull..and it was. EUR/USD moved up by barely 5 pips.. but hey, I managed to grab 2 pips :) Its easy to grab 2 pips on a 20 pip rise.. but try grabbing 2 pips on a 5 pip rise.. and you'll know what I mean :D Everything came out as expected.. consumer spending is slowing down (duh.. obvious due to gas prices) Anyway, I'm glad I made some money on a boring report. Can't wait for the exciting ones..the image is bigger than the usual ones I post, so you can see how small the overall uctuation was, and where I t in :eek: Attachment 53975
njmac
I like your strategy. I watched this trade but didn't get in because I wasn't quite sure anything even happened. I'll be watching the next report 10am est. to see what happens. You should start putting more money on these trades... you have this stuff down to science :cool:
08-01-2006 05:48 AM
Music_Producer
Quote:
08-01-2006 06:13 AM
Originally Posted by njmac I like your strategy. I watched this trade but didn't get in because I wasn't quite sure anything even happened. I'll be watching the next report 10am est. to see what happens. You should start putting more money on these trades... you have this stuff down to science :cool:
I know I should, but putting more money also scares me a bit. Maybe in the future when I am absolutely sure of what I'm doing :D Right now I'm trying out a carry trade in my game account. If you had $100,000 in your forex account, and invested $10,000 of that in AUD/JPY you'd make about $25,000 per year in interest on that $10,000. You need the other $90,000 to stay put to accomodate for the dips and hikes.. (if i bought 500,000 AUD/JPY at 89, and with $100,000 in my account.. I would get a margin call when aud/jpy went down to 66 i.e. i would lose all my money) So I'm guessing.. quite a few people with huge balances, invest part of it in carry trades, and earn crazy interest. Lets say I'm managing someone's 1 million USD. I would invest only $100,000 out of that in my trade. $100,000 can buy 5,00,0000 AUD/JPY.. thats frikkin $250,000 a year in interest. Put that 1 million in the bank.. and what do you get? $45,000/year interest :rolleyes: Someday when I have a million to spare, you know what I'll be upto!
Music_Producer
08-01-2006 07:06 AM
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1 Attachment(s)
I'm beginning to laugh at myself. I have such a trigger happy nger.. that I close my trade rightaway, as soon as I get 2-3 pips prot. I just don't wait for it to go down to 10 pips or more. Anyway, you can see from the chart how early I got out.. but made my prot. The EUR is still dropping, ISM index came out a little better than expected. Attachment 53977
njmac
Quote:
08-01-2006 08:42 AM
Originally Posted by Music_Producer I'm beginning to laugh at myself. I have such a trigger happy nger.. that I close my trade rightaway, as soon as I get 2-3 pips prot. I just don't wait for it to go down to 10 pips or more. Anyway, you can see from the chart how early I got out.. but made my prot. The EUR is still dropping, ISM index came out a little better than expected. Attachment 53977
Actually, I think that having a trigger happy nger is a good thing if you are making a prot. I just think that since it works for you, you should take the few pips you make, and put huge ammounts of money on them. This way it won't go against your instinct to get in/get out and you still can make as much money with a few pips as someone going for 40 pips but with a small ammount.

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Curren~Sea
08-01-2006 11:35 AM
You denitely need to understand the announcements. But this does not need to be overly complicated. Nor does it require a large time commitment once you understand the basics of trading. The problem I had and that I would spare anyone else is trying to overanalyze the market and trying to use too many indicators. By all means research the various methods of trading... but I'm telling you that successful trading is not rocket science. Keep it simple.
Crimson
Margin Call
08-02-2006 06:35 AM
Another basic question... I did some silly trades today just to test the waters - I pretty much used up my entire margin, and when the trade did the opposite of what I thought, the "Margin Available" dropped to zero. I was expecting a margin call at this point (and was disapointed to see my theory failed) but nothing. I am confused - when do they give you a margin call and does it basically mean they take all your money? You start over from zero? This was all taking place in my game account - would not dare to do this with my real money!
Curren~Sea
Quote:
08-02-2006 09:54 AM
Originally Posted by Crimson Another basic question... I did some silly trades today just to test the waters - I pretty much used up my entire margin, and when the trade did the opposite of what I thought, the "Margin Available" dropped to zero. I was expecting a margin call at this point (and was disapointed to see my theory failed) but nothing. I am confused - when do they give you a margin call and does it basically mean they take all your money? You start over from zero? This was all taking place in my game account would not dare to do this with my real money!
With Oanda, if you have 50:1 leverage then it takes 2000 to buy a 100,000 lot of currency. If you started with a 10,000 account, then you'll have 8,000 left to cover your losses. If you lose 8,000, you will get a margin call. Oanda keeps your 8,000 but gives you back your 2,000 that you used as leverage. Does that make sense? With 2,000, you could still buy smaller lots, say a 10,000 mini-lot which would cost you 200 in leverage.
Music_Producer
08-02-2006 06:30 PM
So who's trading today? :) Two interest rate statements.. Bank of England the ECB (for the Euro) The Bank of England is expected to keep rates the same, so I expect GBP to drop a little.. but I won't trade because
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the GBP/USD spread goes up like crazy before the interest rate announcement. The last Bank of England statement.. did nothing to raise the rates, and I sold the GBP (also mentioned here in a posting somewhere) and made some prot as it dipped. However, if they *raise* interest rates, I would expect the GBP to go up. As for the EUR, an interest rate hike has been expected.. so I expect the Euro to dip..and then there is the ECB chief's statement.. so depending on what he says (hawkish or dovish) the EUR will act accordingly. Whatever I have typed so far.. the exact opposite could take place as well! I'm still not comfortable trading interest rates, but I will be trading anyway. Lets see how it goes..
Music_Producer
1 Attachment(s)
08-03-2006 03:22 AM
Wake up ya sleepyheads! :) Beautiful trade today, got 30 pips on the GBP/USD.. GBP Services PMI came out lower than expected. This time i held on to my trigger happy nger.. and I waited for the GBP to drop.. good decision :D Anyway, now I'm a little nervous because 2 potentially huge trades are due.. the BOE and ECB rate.. Attachment 54131
CJM
Quote:
08-03-2006 03:37 AM
Originally Posted by Chundles Awful tasting beer XXXX is, terrible stuff. You do know why they call it XXXX don't you?
That's what I thought this was about... I was just going to moan at them for spelling 'Fourecks' wrong.
Music_Producer
Best trade ever!
1 Attachment(s)
08-03-2006 04:05 AM
Bank of England raised interest rates, absolutely unexpected.. so the GBP shot up.. I was a little surprised as to the decision and then i hit myself "Buy gbp you idiot!" Although i got in late, I got 45 pips! :D :D Exactly as I mentioned earlier.. if the bank goes against what the market expects.. expect the currency to move.. and boy did it move! Sweet sweet sweet sweet! Attachment 54132 Oh boy, its still going up.. just shot up by another 20 pips.. who cares.. I got 45 pips :D :D
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Music_Producer
08-03-2006 04:51 AM
ECB announced what was expected.. a 25 bps hike in euro rates, so eur just dipped by 6-8 pips.. nothing major. I didn't trade this one, was hoping for a surprise after the GBP rate hike.. :rolleyes: I'm very satised with Oanda.. before the GBP rate announcement they increased the spread of GBP/USD to only 6 pips.. I assumed they would hike it up to 15 pips or so. Funny how I wasn't prepared to trade gbp/usd.. it was a good thing i had the news program on, and the trade windows ready.. 'just in case...'
njmac
I slept late :( Good for you though :) Thanks for posting the trade.
08-03-2006 05:04 AM
njmac
Quote:
08-03-2006 05:09 AM
Originally Posted by Music_Producer Bank of England raised interest rates, absolutely unexpected.. so the GBP shot up.. I was a little surprised as to the decision and then i hit myself "Buy gbp you idiot!" Although i got in late, I got 45 pips! :D :D Exactly as I mentioned earlier.. if the bank goes against what the market expects.. expect the currency to move.. and boy did it move! Sweet sweet sweet sweet! Attachment 54132 Oh boy, its still going up.. just shot up by another 20 pips.. who cares.. I got 45 pips :D :D
this was also GBP/USD?
Music_Producer
08-03-2006 05:23 AM
Yup nj.. there were 2 gbp announcements today.. services pmi and the interest rate decision. Don't worry.. there's plenty of trades still to come :)
Music_Producer
08-03-2006 05:34 AM
Just made about 2 pips on the US jobless claims.. they came out a little more than expected..so eur moved up 5-6 pips. Thats it for today.. I'm going to sleep.. phew!
Curren~Sea
I took a few this morning also.
08-03-2006 10:00 AM
I have two accounts. One that I trade strictly announcements with (Oanda) and another that I trade using
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other methods. Currently, my Oanda account is my less risky account and I expect about 10-20% per month from it. My other account is more aggressive and I expect 100%+ from it. August is young but so far I'm up about 2% in my Oanda account and 32% in my other account. Not bad. I fully expect tomorrow's non-farm announcement to be dollar positive. I am only trading the EUR and I expect that if it cannot break above 1.2860 prior to the announcement that it'll come crashing down. We'll see, but I'll be ready for anything. Glad to hear that we're all doing well!
Music_Producer
08-03-2006 11:34 PM
Just a heads up to let you know that the non farm payroll is due today at 8.30 am est. If you're awake, get your demo/real accounts ready. :)
Hoef
08-04-2006 03:08 AM
Got my trigger nger ready :) Out of curiosity, how much did you put into the account when you guys started trading Music_Producer & Curren~Sea ?
Hoef
at 7:54 am
08-04-2006 04:55 AM
Am I missing something? ... No news on Oanda FXNews on non farm. Still was able to make a 4 pip prot during the volatility
Music_Producer
08-04-2006 04:58 AM
Hoef.. you're missing a lot :eek: The non farm payroll report is at 8.30 am est.. so be careful with your 'trades'!!
eln buddy
08-04-2006 05:07 AM
Hey guys! I've been following along with this thread ever since its inception, and have been fooling around with an Oanda Game account to get used to things. I think I've got the hang of it, so I'm going to deposit a small amount of cash into a real account sometime soon (like $50) to get used to dealing with real money. I must say though, Music_Producer and Curren~Sea, you guys are awesome! You give me hope in humanity :p If there's anything you ever need, let me know and I'll help you out :D I'm going to be trading (game) on the non-farm announcement this morning, so best of luck to everyone!
Hoef
Quote:
08-04-2006 05:10 AM
Originally Posted by Music_Producer Hoef.. you're missing a lot :eek: The non farm payroll report is at 8.30 am est.. so be careful with your 'trades'!!
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ARGH ... my time table is messed up :(
Music_Producer
08-04-2006 05:15 AM
Hey Eln..you're welcome! Btw, we could have made some good money on the Canadian report today (at 4 am EST) but they released the data at 3.58 am.. yup.. crazy! So I missed that trade.. that was an easy 20 pips ..but whatever. Hoef, they must be wearing the same watch as you :p
Music_Producer
08-04-2006 05:17 AM
I have a feeling this one's going to be a little tricky.. because of the August 8 Fed meeting. This is the only important data left that will convince the Fed whether to raise the interest rates, or not. Lets see..
Hoef
20 pips but lucky
1 Attachment(s)
08-04-2006 05:36 AM
Got 20 pips in but that was luck. I was too late on the rst ride up (I had sell EUR button selected because thought that payroll news was better). By the time I changed to buy and executed, I was too late .... Then a second ride came and I was able to catch 20 pips. OANDA execution was lagging .... can't compare against other platforms bt took more than 5 sec to execute. Maybe because I have game account? Man this is addictive No wonder it took ages .... OANDA is swamped :)
Music_Producer
Nice trade!
1 Attachment(s)
08-04-2006 05:37 AM
Let me know how you guys did.. I nabbed 15 pips. Here's my results: Attachment 54212 $1500 in 2 seconds.. I like the sound of it :) :D And the POS that Safari is, it crashed a minute after I closed my trades! this was a really easy trade.. eur/usd has gone up even more.. could have made 50 pips, but I'll take my 15 pips prot.. never know when a crazy bank would have intervened and drove the currency down! I'm really really really pissed that Safari crashed. :mad: :mad: What if it was a frikkin million dollar trade.. damn.
eln buddy
08-04-2006 05:44 AM
I made about 20 pips prot, but I was sh*tting my pants there for a second because the server refused to close my trade and then disconnected me! :eek:
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I'd like to think that it's because I was on a game account and the server demand was so high that they allocated all resources to real money accounts, but still... Either way, a good morning! I went long on 1'000'000 units of EUR/USD, and netted around $2'000 out of it. I'm totally loving this...:D
Music_Producer
08-04-2006 05:45 AM
Originally Posted by Hoef Got 20 pips in but that was luck. I was too late on the rst ride up (I had sell EUR button selected because thought that payroll news was better). By the time I changed to buy and executed, I was too late .... Then a second ride came and I was able to catch 20 pips. OANDA execution was lagging .... can't compare against other platforms bt took more than 5 sec to execute. Maybe because I have game account? Man this is addictive
Oh yeah, there is no lag on the real account. And here's a tip for you guys.. well i just discovered it last night. Don't have just one window open (the trade window - where you choose buy or sell, and then hit submit) Instead, have two trade windows open, and keep them side by side. On one trade window, select 'buy'.. on the other, select 'sell'. Now all you have to worry about is which 'submit' button to hit i.e. the one on the buy window or the sell window. The best part is you can overlap the windows so you can move between the 'submit' faster. Let me give you an example, on my game account Attachment 54215 This way you don't waste time moving your cursor from 'buy' to 'sell' and then 'submit' if you had only one window open. Also, navigate to 'tools' in your oanda menu, and then deselect "Show conrmation window" This way you won't waste time clicking "Ok" when a trade conrmation window opens up. Btw hoef, that was no luck, the eur was moving up, and you caught it.. so congrats!
Music_Producer
Quote:
08-04-2006 05:46 AM
Originally Posted by eln buddy I made about 20 pips prot, but I was sh*tting my pants there for a second because the server refused to close my trade and then disconnected me! :eek: I'd like to think that it's because I was on a game account and the server demand was so high that they allocated all resources to real money accounts, but still... Either way, a good morning! I went long on 1'000'000 units of EUR/USD, and netted around $2'000 out of it. I'm totally loving this...:D
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Lol! Yeah, I can imagine that feeling. Now imagine sitting in an actual investment ofce, and dealing 100 million units instantly, with no browsers to deal with :p
Music_Producer
08-04-2006 05:49 AM
K, goodnight folks (yeah, this is when i go to sleep!) Will keep you updated over the weekend regarding potential trades. Now stop looking at the forex screens and do something productive :D
eln buddy
Here's a screenshot of Oanda's screw-up.
08-04-2006 05:50 AM
I was also late to the trade, but managed to catch the second ride just like Hoef. I'm only glad it stabilised after the second ride, or it easily could have gone the other way.
eln buddy
Quote:
08-04-2006 05:54 AM
Originally Posted by Music_Producer K, goodnight folks (yeah, this is when i go to sleep!) Will keep you updated over the weekend regarding potential trades. Now stop looking at the forex screens and do something productive :D
Haha, goodnight, Music_Producer! Have a nice weekend :D I'm looking forward to more trades and moving into small money soon. Now, off to work to make a measly
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$70 in eight hours...:p ;)
Hoef
Quote:
08-04-2006 06:24 AM
Originally Posted by Music_Producer $1500 in 2 seconds.. I like the sound of it :) :D
Excellent!! ... I netted $200 with 20 pips ...

Quote:
Originally Posted by Music_Producer $And here's a tip for you guys.. well i just discovered it last night. Don't have just one window open (the trade window - where you choose buy or sell, and then hit submit) Instead, have two trade windows open, and keep them side by side. On one trade window, select 'buy'.. on the other, select 'sell'. Now all you have to worry about is which 'submit' button to hit i.e. the one on the buy window or the sell window.
Nice tip! :eek:
Curren~Sea
08-04-2006 10:04 AM
It wasn't a huge move this month. We've seen a lot of volatility in the last few days and often that means the non-farm move won't be a big one. Additionally, we have an even more important announcement next Tuesday when the Fed releases their next interest rate decision (expected to be no hike). But if there is a hike, then the dollar should strengthen a bit (and stocks crumble). Anyway, I made a few pips this morning, nothing much. I was happy with Oanda's execution. The 10 pip spread was annoying but I still managed to make money. And you know what? It's all about making money and not losing it!! It's waaaay too easy to lose money so if you are a net protable trader then you're ahead of 80% of everyone else who trades (or traded) Forex. I'm still of the opinion that the dollar will strengthen in the short term. It obviously didn't happen today but that is my bias. That doesn't stop me from making pips on upward moves though ;)
Music_Producer
08-05-2006 06:57 PM
I don't know about all of you, but I'm more excited about the WWDC on August 7 than the Fed's decision regarding US interest rates :D
njmac
Quote:
08-05-2006 09:09 PM
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Originally Posted by Music_Producer I don't know about all of you, but I'm more excited about the WWDC on August 7 than the Fed's decision regarding US interest rates :D
haha :D yes, I can't wait for monday! But I'm anxious to learn this stuff so I can start making real money.
eln buddy
Quote:
08-06-2006 04:39 AM
Originally Posted by Music_Producer I don't know about all of you, but I'm more excited about the WWDC on August 7 than the Fed's decision regarding US interest rates :D
I'm excited about both, but in different ways :D On one hand, WWDC is going to be awesome and we'll see the future of the Mac along with some awesome new products. On the other hand, the Fed's interest rate decision will help me get more money to realise my dreams of buying all the new stuff that'll be announced tomorrow... :p
njmac
08-07-2006 06:56 PM
I just re-read this entire thread! whew... there is a ton of info here and I was taking notes - 15 pages of notes!! Who is trading the Fed announcement tomorrow? I will be watching just to learn. What does ination normally do to currencies and why? I might have missed that somewhere in here, I'm getting a little forex-bleary eyed trying to understand.
eln buddy
08-07-2006 08:40 PM
I'm planning on doing some more practice trading on the Fed announcement tomorrow...also going to the bank to wire $50 to Oanda tomorrow, so that I can get experience with real money. There are some announcements coming from Germany early Tuesday too, but they're too early for me to bother getting up and trading. I am curious as to how they'll affect the value of the Euro though. I mean, Germany is only one country that uses the Euro as its currency, so will announcements coming out of Germany have any noticeable effect on the currency at all?
Hoef
Quote:
08-08-2006 12:48 AM
Originally Posted by eln buddy I mean, Germany is only one country that uses the Euro as its currency, so will announcements
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coming out of Germany have any noticeable effect on the currency at all?
German economy pulls quite heavy in Europe.... who knows
Music_Producer
08-08-2006 12:53 AM
Count me in.. I'll be trading the EUR/USD on the USD interest rate decision. Markets expect no change (current rate is 5.25%) I expect the USD to drop (I think!) if this stays the same.. or if they raise the rates to 5.50% (totally unexpected) I expect the USD to skyrocket. Lets hope they surprise the markets.. but knowing the Feds, they probably won't. I mean, look at the real estate market.. its close to collapsing.. if they raise rates you can be sure that the collapse will be imminent. I don't know.. lets see tomorrow..or rather, today. *DON'T* trade before the news, there will be a lot of volatility, and I mean a LOT .. usually this is true before interest rate decisions. Also, the spread on EUR/USD will widen, because the whole god damn world will be trading on this report. If you're on a demo, trade condently.. if you're on a real account.. be cautious. Eln.. I wouldn't worry about the german reports.. I have never seen any activity related to these news... the currency doesn't move much. I am not saying that the same thing will happen.. but usually, they don't care for reports of individual countries. Only the US news, and interest rate decisions matter. GBP news matter as well, but the spread on GBP/USD gets upto 10 pips or more.. so i don't trade that pair much. Canadian news matter too.. especially GDP. Again, USD/CAD spread widens a lot.. which is why I stick to EUR/USD. Study one pair, and trade it effectively. Btw, somewhere in this forum, theres a trade I made last month during the US interest rate announcement (with graph attached) You can see the EUR zoom up against the USD.. because the Fed raised the rates. This was a highly expected move, raising the rates by 25 bps.. so the USD dropped. Remember, anything *unexpected* moves the market in the opposite direction. So if USD rates stay the same, I expect the USD to drop.. if rates are hiked, USD will rise.. if for some god damn weird reason they *lower* the interest rate.. I would expect the USD to drop. I still can't get the Mac Pro outta my mind :D
Music_Producer
Quote:
08-08-2006 12:54 AM
Originally Posted by Hoef German economy pulls quite heavy in Europe.... who knows
Yeah hoef.. but usually.. nothing happens.. nada. If the EUR does move, its by 6-8 pips. For me, its not worth the stress of getting ready to trade, analyzing the news..doing all that.. and landing up with 0 pips or even a loss.
Hoef
08-08-2006 03:15 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Music_Producer Yeah hoef.. but usually.. nothing happens.. nada. If the EUR does move, its by 6-8 pips. For me, its not worth the stress of getting ready to trade, analyzing the news..doing all that.. and landing up with 0 pips or even a loss.
True ... the real pain is to over come the buy / sell spread :mad:

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Curren~Sea
08-08-2006 09:18 AM
When the Euro currency was introduced, it was valued based on the German Deutsche Mark, so if you look at a 30 year chart for the Euro, you'll see history there even though the Euro as a currency has only been around for seven years. The German economy is probably the most powerful of all the Euro nations. However, as mentioned, individual Euro nation announcements are not as important as central bank announcements (ECB). It should be an interesting afternoon of trading. Even if the Fed does not raise interest rates, as expected, the language of the announcement will be closely watched. Any hawkish or dovish verbage will be interpreted by the market as a prediction for future policy.
eln buddy
08-08-2006 11:19 AM
Yee haw! Made $2'400 on the interest rate decision in FXGame. I grabbed something like 22 pips on that one, and better still, the game account didn't refuse to close my position this time :p :D Music Producer, I tried that new trick of yours (having two trade windows open at once, one set to 'Buy' and the other to 'Sell'), and it worked remarkably! Great idea! Now all I need is something bigger than the 12" screen on my PowerBook to make everything even easier, haha... Good trade!
Curren~Sea
Nice.
08-08-2006 11:26 AM
I didn't actually pull the trigger on this one because I didn't trust it. And even as I type it reverses... Interesting!
njmac
Quote:
08-08-2006 11:28 AM
Originally Posted by Music_Producer Count me in.. I'll be trading the EUR/USD on the USD interest rate decision. Markets expect no change (current rate is 5.25%) I expect the USD to drop (I think!) if this stays the same.. or if they raise the rates to 5.50% (totally unexpected) I expect the USD to skyrocket.
Music_Producer, thanks for the info. I made about $400 in my game account. I hope you put some decent money on the line since, like usual, you were 100% correct!:cool: And you didn't have to be up at 5am ;)
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I'm going to put $50.00 into Oanda and start playing (carefully ) for real. How did everyone else do? And what's next that will be important to trade? EDIT: good for you Eln!!! I'm surprised you didn't trade curren~sea, you are usually pretty condent.
eln buddy
08-08-2006 11:30 AM
Yeah, I was considering not trading too if the interest rate came out the same (5.25%, which it did), but I gured that the USD would drop against the Euro if expectations were met, so I gave it a go. I got out quick too, and it's a good thing because a downswing quickly followed the rise. It is just play money for me at the moment...were it real money, I probably wouldn't have pulled the trigger just to be safe.
njmac
Quote:
08-08-2006 11:31 AM
Originally Posted by Curren~Sea Nice. I didn't actually pull the trigger on this one because I didn't trust it. And even as I type it reverses... Interesting!
That's why its so important to get the news quickly, get in, get out just as fast.
Curren~Sea
08-08-2006 11:43 AM
The reason I didn't trade is because for me, I am looking for the announcement to be different than what the market expects. That's when I know for sure which direction the market is going to move. It's a high percentage trade and that's what it's all about. It's ok if I miss a big move as long as I'm following my strategy. For this announcement, it's equally important what the language is, and that isn't known until traders have had a chance to read the report, which is usually a few minutes after they see the number. That's how I explain this whip-saw. Yes, there is no rate increase, but the Fed is "keeping an eye" on ination. I still expect the USD to strengthen but I'm patient for all the stars to line up.
Music_Producer
08-08-2006 12:32 PM
I just woke up! :mad: I am so used to staying awake till 6 am, so I went to sleep at 4 am thinking I have to get up at 10.30 atleast.. and right now its 12.26 :D Ahh.. no big deal.. I'll trade the next time.. I am so not a morning person.. lol! I'm friggin thrilled that you guys got some good trades :) Eln and nj.. great trades.. and great reasoning. If expectations are met, currency drops. Just like I said.. god damn Feds never surprise anybody. They're lame :p
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Also, this is the last time I trust my wife to wake me up.. :rolleyes:
~Shard~
08-08-2006 01:15 PM
It's great to see how active this thread has become - especially since it's technically on a Mac Forum, not an investing Forum! ;) :D Now that I've returned from my 3 weeks of vacation I am going to start playing as well with my Oanda account. Just play money for the next few months and then I'll dump a few grand into a real account and (as other have stated) carefully see how it goes with real money. ;) :cool:
Music_Producer
Welcome back Shard :)
08-08-2006 02:38 PM
To all of you who traded.. what time did the news come out? At 2.15 or 2.14? Also, I checked the graph.. and it looks like there might have been a 'leak' or a tip.. that interest rates were to stay the same. The spike occured much earlier than it would have at news time (yeah, inspite of security and stuff.. leaks do occur at times)
eln buddy
Good to see you again, ~Shard~! Welcome back!
08-08-2006 02:45 PM
I think the news came out momentarily before 3:15 (my time, anyway), so probably around 3:14:45 or so. Oanda FXNews was quick to the punch though, so I didn't miss out on too much of the action ;)
macbookpro10
08-08-2006 02:48 PM
Wow this is crazy. I didn't know that many people did forex. I used to do stocks for a while now I am hooked on forex market. For me it is more lucrative and very very very fast. Which I like becuase I am a day trader. I use FXCM's trading station for the mac and it works ne.
~Shard~
08-08-2006 04:38 PM
Thanks guys, good to be back. Hopefully I'll be joining in the trading action with you in the next couple of weeks once I get back on track. :)
~Shard~
08-09-2006 07:35 AM
Well, I carried out my rst few pretend trades with Oanda last night, just to become more familiar with the platform and things in general. I traded the EUR/USD a couple times, once long and once short, and made a cumulative 6 pips on a 100,000 lot size ($10/pip). Not too shabby for my rst go. ;) Oh, and keep in mind I was obviously not trading on any news this was just more of an exercise to execute and close a trade. I called on some of my charting expertise from all the stock trading I!ve done to try and predict very short term dips and peaks, and managed to hit them fairly well. I didn!t panic when I was temporarily down, as you can never buy at the absolute bottom or sell at the very top. ;) My better trade was the AUD/JPY. I actually bought this as a long term hold for the interest benets, however when I woke up this morning, I logged in and saw that I had realized a 50 pip gain during the 6
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hours I was asleep! So, I closed the position and took a nice prot. Of course I realize it could just as easily gone the other way, but in this case, I just closed the trade, didn!t get greedy, and perhaps I will put another order in tonight and see what happens. Here is the chart for my trade. The blue arrow is of course where I bought, and I closed the position just after taking this snapshot:
~Shard~
08-09-2006 07:36 AM
Oh, and one question Music _Producer (or anyone else who knows the answer). You mentioned something a few posts about having two trade windows open to expedite trades which windows are you referring to? The order windows where you buy or sell, or what exactly? I'll have a re-read of the thread myself, since I've been away for a few weeks, but thought I'd ask as well FWIW. ;) :cool:
eln buddy
Quote:
08-09-2006 07:50 AM
Originally Posted by ~Shard~ Oh, and one question Music _Producer (or anyone else who knows the answer). You mentioned something a few posts about having two trade windows open to expedite trades which windows are you referring to? The order windows where you buy or sell, or what exactly? I'll have a re-read of the thread myself, since I've been away for a few weeks, but thought I'd ask as well FWIW. ;) :cool:
I believe he was talking about the buy/sell windows. The reason it's good to have two of them open is that when you're trading the news, you don't know what the news will be in advance so you don't know whether to buy or sell. Seconds count, and it takes time to click the radio button to switch between buy/sell. Having two market order windows open let you have one of them set to 'buy' and the other to 'sell' so that you can just click whichever one would benet from the news.
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To save space on my little screen, I overlap the windows so that I have the buy window on top, and the sell window behind it with only the 'submit' and 'cancel' buttons showing. Congrats on the lucky JPY trade! Sounds like you're doing quite well already :) There was a housing announcement for Canada this morning at 9:15 (Atlantic time), and I got up earlier than usual hoping to trade it. Funny though, Oanda gave signs that there was an announcement pending on the USD/CAD (i.e., the spread increased right before 9:15), but there was no announcement on Oanda FXNews, the market didn't budge, and the spread went back to a normal level a few minutes later. I'm not quite sure what to make of it. It was rated orange by the good folks at ForexFactory, and they report the gure as having come out above expectations. I nally got a bit of real money deposited into my Oanda account, so I was really looking forward to screwing around with it a bit :p
~Shard~
Quote:
08-09-2006 08:08 AM
Originally Posted by eln buddy I believe he was talking about the buy/sell windows. The reason it's good to have two of them open is that when you're trading the news, you don't know what the news will be in advance so you don't know whether to buy or sell. Seconds count, and it takes time to click the radio button to switch between buy/sell. Having two market order windows open let you have one of them set to 'buy' and the other to 'sell' so that you can just click whichever one would benet from the news.
Ah, now I understand, thanks for that! I thought it was perhaps 2 windows open to execute and then subsequently close a trade. But yes, that makes total sense. Thanks. :)
Quote:
Originally Posted by eln buddy Congrats on the lucky JPY trade! Sounds like you're doing quite well already :)
Thanks, but I do realize it was more luck than good management, and it could have just as easily gone the other way. ;) Let!s just say I!m not going to let myself get overcondent or cocky because of my initial luck, as that could get very dangerous very quickly. I!m too smart for that and have learned too many lessons the hard way in this respect on the stock market over the years. :o ;) :cool:
eln buddy
Quote:
08-09-2006 08:18 AM
Originally Posted by ~Shard~ Ah, now I understand, thanks for that! I thought it was perhaps 2 windows open to execute and then subsequently close a trade. But yes, that makes total sense. Thanks. :)
No problem ;)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ~Shard~ Thanks, but I do realize it was more luck than good management, and it could have just as easily gone the other way. ;) Let!s just say I!m not going to let myself get overcondent or cocky because of my initial luck, as that could get very dangerous very quickly. I!m too smart for that and have learned too many lessons the hard way in this respect on the stock market over the years. :o ;) :cool:
With that kind an attitude, you just might make it into the "elite 10%", as they call it on BabyPips :D
~Shard~
Quote:
08-09-2006 09:13 AM
Originally Posted by eln buddy With that kind an attitude, you just might make it into the "elite 10%", as they call it on BabyPips :D
Well, that sure would be nice. :o ;) I am hoping that my years of experience in the stock market will assist me in some of my future Forex endeavours. Even though they are different beasts, I believe there are a lot of fundamental principles which spread across both domains, so hopefully that will be an asset to me.
Music_Producer
08-09-2006 01:37 PM
Hey Eln.. the Canadians are getting notorious for not being punctual.. the CAD report that was supposed to come out at 8.15 am EST, came out at 8.20 am EST :eek: Anyway, there was not much deviation from the expected results.. and the USD/CAD spread was 10 pips.. so i didn't trade.. and the USD/CAD barely moved enough to make a prot. I think I'm quite proud of the GBP trade that I carried out today.. (the UK trade balance came out at 4.30 am est) The spread on GBP/USD was 15 pips.. 15 damn pips! And there was hardly any deviation but i went ahead and made 1 pip prot :p I traded a huge lot, so I made $200.. pitiful amount but I was quite tripping on my skills, since I managed to eke out 1 pip from a 4 pip drop, *and* a 15 pip spread. Of course if the spread was like EUR/USD.. 3 pips at the most, I could have made 14 pips. Stupid spreads :mad:
Curren~Sea
08-09-2006 01:54 PM
There's a whole slew of JPY announcements this afternoon. I wouldn't be surprised if the JPY strengthens considerably. Not sure if I'll trade it, maybe in my alternate account. I'm sticking with ultra-conservative Euro only trades in my main Oanda account. a 15 pip spread is nasty, but at least you could get in and out of trades. Many other platforms would not let you trade during a volatile period. Speaking of which, I am looking hard at the ACM platform. Looks very good to me at the moment. When my account gets up to the hundreds of thousands, I will probably move funds over there, after all, it's Swiss!
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~Shard~
Quote:
08-09-2006 02:01 PM
Originally Posted by Curren~Sea Speaking of which, I am looking hard at the ACM platform. Looks very good to me at the moment. When my account gets up to the hundreds of thousands, I will probably move funds over there, after all, it's Swiss!
Indeed, that would be a nice position to be in. ;) :)
eln buddy
Quote:
08-09-2006 02:01 PM
Originally Posted by Music_Producer Hey Eln.. the Canadians are getting notorious for not being punctual.. the CAD report that was supposed to come out at 8.15 am EST, came out at 8.20 am EST :eek: Anyway, there was not much deviation from the expected results.. and the USD/CAD spread was 10 pips.. so i didn't trade.. and the USD/CAD barely moved enough to make a prot. I think I'm quite proud of the GBP trade that I carried out today.. (the UK trade balance came out at 4.30 am est) The spread on GBP/USD was 15 pips.. 15 damn pips! And there was hardly any deviation but i went ahead and made 1 pip prot :p I traded a huge lot, so I made $200.. pitiful amount but I was quite tripping on my skills, since I managed to eke out 1 pip from a 4 pip drop, *and* a 15 pip spread. Of course if the spread was like EUR/USD.. 3 pips at the most, I could have made 14 pips. Stupid spreads :mad:
The report came out at 8:20 instead of 8:15?!? :eek: Bastards! I closed down FXTrade at 8:19 (or, 9:19 my time). Oh well, I didn't expect to make much of a prot anyway, so I'm not crying. :rolleyes: I started playing with real money today, regardless that I missed the announcement I was waiting for. I made about 10 small trades today, just here and there in a bunch of different currencies, trying to shake the butteries that came with losing my forex virginity :p Even though I wasn't even trading the news or doing any real analysis of the markets, I still came out barely on top, so nothing lost :) I'm getting very comfortable with trading real money now, which should be a good thing in that my trading practices won't differ too much from when I did well with fake money. I'm having a lot of fun doing this! :D
Music_Producer
08-09-2006 02:59 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by eln buddy I made about 10 small trades today, just here and there in a bunch of different currencies, trying to shake the butteries that came with losing my forex virginity :p
Lol.. good to see you guys are having fun doing this... and it is fun, if you know what you're doing! I remember the awful times when I lost all my money because I didn't have a clue.. and just used to stick to 'charting' techniques. All the charting theories go straight out the door during these news events. For me it was always a mystery as to what caused those 'spikes' .. lol what an idiot :rolleyes: Curren Sea.. yeah, I'll be looking at the JPY today as well.. and the boj interest rate thing is tomorrow.. but onbiously they won't do anything. *if* they do raise rates.. it'll be totally out of the blue and the JPY will be spanking every other currency's ass. But they won't raise it.. besides, the carry traders will get screwed..and basically the entire world does carry trading :D
Music_Producer
08-09-2006 03:01 PM
Hmm.. everyone I see here (almost) is from Canada.. how's it like living there? Just a general question.. I'm really tired of the American government and all the idiots out here. I bet Canadians are not punctual though.. like their nance ministry :D
eln buddy
Quote:
08-09-2006 03:28 PM
Originally Posted by Music_Producer Hmm.. everyone I see here (almost) is from Canada.. how's it like living there? Just a general question.. I'm really tired of the American government and all the idiots out here. I bet Canadians are not punctual though.. like their nance ministry :D
I absolutely love living in Canada :D I like it less now than I did before on account of Stephen Harper, but overall it's a great place to live. I still can't wrap my mind around all the empty space and wilderness! There's really a noticeable difference between Canadian and American psyches too. There's none of this "culture of fear" that seems to ourish so well in the US. Of course, if Stephen Harper has his way, that'll all change :rolleyes: I am of the opinion that on average, Canadians are much more laid back than Americans. I support this with anecdotal evidence from my girlfriend who's a call agent for Budget's International Call Centre (yeah, the car rental place). The majority of her callers are American, and apparently they are always the ones throwing ts, swearing at her, and generally not nice people to serve. She says she's never had a single bad call from a Canadian :confused: I'd love for some grad student in psychology to do a study on that... Ummm....yeah :) Sorry about that tangent, haha. Even after that, I feel obligated to point out that I've never met an American I didn't like. Maybe I choose good company, maybe the horrible Americans never leave their country...who knows? All I know is that all Americans I personally know are awesome people :)
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Music_Producer
08-09-2006 03:40 PM
Yeah.. when I deal with most americans during business.. they're horrible compared to foreigners. I love Australians.. they seem to be the most polite and friendly bunch. Canadains are a lot nicer too.. Americans think they're the frikkin elite bunch.. and hence the attitude. Thanks for the info Eln :)
~Shard~
08-09-2006 10:48 PM
I love Canadians and Canada, but what can I say, I'm biased. ;) :D It's an amazing country Music_Producer so if you're ever thinking of a change, let us know and we'll point you in the right direction in terms of where to move to suit your needs and all that good stuff. :) Oh, and Curren~Sea, too bad I just realized you lived in Vancouver. I just spent part of my vacation there visiting friends and family. It would have been fun to have met up in person with ya, chat about investing over drinks, and all that good stuff. ;) Next time? :cool:
Music_Producer
Thanks Shard.. will denitely take a look at Canada.. sooner than later! :)
08-09-2006 11:42 PM
I'll be trading the US trade balance report at 5.30 am PST. Seeing how other reports have been, I expect this one to be more negative than expected.
Music_Producer
No trade on the US data for me, hardly any deviation on the US trade balance.
08-10-2006 05:38 AM
Crimson
Nice week!
08-10-2006 10:45 AM
I'm nally back after a sleepless week - btw, it's a girl! Some nice action on the market while I was gone. Now I'm thinking I should start taking advantage of late night feedings - maybe get my laptop set up in the nursery :p So you guys who started out with a live account - at $50 do you feel you get the same "excitement" over the trades? Curious if anyone recommends an amount to start out with for practice with "the real deal". Glad to see Shard back - and nice to see some new names! :)
Curren~Sea
08-10-2006 01:00 PM
The big move today was, of course, the terrorist plot. I am in a long-term sell from my "wave" account and it's over 100 pips in prot. I will probably trade the BOJ announcement in my "announcement" account because the JPY should move. Start small with your live account. Small is relative, though, for some people small is $50, for others small is $5000. The main thing is that you will feel completely different when you're trading real money compared to
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trading demo. After some time, however, you will lose that emotional attachement and you'll become a better trader. And congrats to Crimson! Shard - Let me know next time you're in Vancouver and we can hook up. I also do some real estate investing so maybe we can compare notes on investment styles and strategies.
~Shard~
Quote:
08-10-2006 01:56 PM
Originally Posted by Curren~Sea Shard - Let me know next time you're in Vancouver and we can hook up. I also do some real estate investing so maybe we can compare notes on investment styles and strategies.
Sounds great Curren~Sea - it's too bad we missed the perfect opportunity a couple weeks ago! My wife would have enjoyed it too, as she is even more into investing than I am - she has her Canadian Securities certication and is a Director of our Strategic Business Development department here, and is thinking about getting into the Venture Capital arena. She knows her stuff as well. :cool: I honestly don't know the next time I'll be out there (probably not until next year) but when I am you can be sure I'll let you know. I nd the real estate market in places such an Vancouver and Calagry fascinating right now, what with rising interest rates, the recent gains people are seeing, people's debt load in those centers, and the impending housing market correction (as the USA is starting to experience already) so I would denitely like to talk more about it with you. And yes, investment strategies in general as well. :) If you like, you could always PM or e-mail me as well. :cool:
Crimson
Withdrawl
08-10-2006 04:46 PM
For you who use live accounts; have you withdrawn money from Oanda? Are there concerns with withdrawing prots, considering tax laws? I saw Oanda made a comment regarding the amount: [b]Funds may be withdrawn from a Customer's Account at any time, providing that the value of the customer FXTrade account is equal to or greater than the margin requirement. Does that just mean that they won't pay out what you currently have in a trade? (That would be obvious!)
~Shard~
Quote:
08-10-2006 07:57 PM
Originally Posted by Crimson For you who use live accounts; have you withdrawn money from Oanda? Are there concerns with withdrawing prots, considering tax laws? I saw Oanda made a comment regarding the amount:
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[b]Funds may be withdrawn from a Customer's Account at any time, providing that the value of the customer FXTrade account is equal to or greater than the margin requirement. Does that just mean that they won't pay out what you currently have in a trade? (That would be obvious!)
Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but the way I read that is as follows: Your margin is based on how much actual funds you have in your account. Drawing on that margin is ne. But you can't draw on that margin then withdraw the actual funds that margin amount was calculated on. Example: You deposit $5000 in real money, margin is 10:1, so you have $50,000 of buying power. You buy $40,000 of something using margin, but then withdraw $4000 of real money. Now, if you only have $1000 of real money left, your margin should only be $10,000, but you've "spent" $40,000. Does this make sense, or am I on crack again? It's happened before, and it is getting late here... :o ;) :cool:
Music_Producer
Hey, congratulations Crimson!!! :) :) What are you naming her? Not 'Apple' right :p
08-11-2006 01:49 AM
I can just imagine you with your laptop.. ignoring her during a news announcement.. lol. About that money withdrawal thing.. Shard.. your explanation confused me for a few minutes :D Let me try it.. Say you have $5000 in your account, just like you said.. and you have a 10:1 margin. That means $50,000 purchasing power. Now out of that $5000, I use $4000 to make a trade. So you just bought $40,000 worth of units. You *can't* withdraw that $4000.. because its locked up in the trade.. its being used as margin for that $40,000. You can withdraw $1000.. because thats free.. but I'm sure you shouldn't withdraw the $1000 because you need to leave some room for any dips.. if you withdraw that $1000.. you will get a margin call almost immediately if there's a slight dip in the currency level. Thats how I see it.. I hope I'm right.. if I am.. then my crack is better quality :D
Music_Producer
Nice trade
1 Attachment(s)
08-11-2006 05:36 AM
Just traded the USD Retail sales news.. grabbed 15 pips.. traded twice actually. The rst time I grabbed 13 pips and exited, then I jumped in again, and got 2 pips and got out. Finally, a nice end to a boring week :) Attachment 54806 Hope you guys traded this one, it was pretty easy.
eln buddy
08-11-2006 05:49 AM
I barely got up in time to catch the USD announcements just a few minutes ago :) I was late to the punch, but I still snagged about 5 pips out of it, so I'm a happy camper. I was scared there for a moment, but I hung on and didn't get greedy.
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Funny though, FXTrade decided to crash Safari again about ve minutes after the trade :confused: I'm going to look into using another browser.
Curren~Sea
08-11-2006 05:56 AM
Yep, I think the Oanda servers went down. I haven't been able to log back in for about 10 minutes now. The good news is that I have at least 5 pips locked in and according to my other charts, I just keep making pips so it's ok! But this downtime during prime trading hours is worrisome.
Music_Producer
08-11-2006 06:00 AM
Hmm.. my oanda window seems to be working ne. In fact, I have a bunch of windows open. I nd that sometimes, a news article on cnn.com almost always crashes safari. I experienced no lag on this trade. Maybe you guys are using game accounts.. so..:confused:

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Curren~Sea
Quote:
08-11-2006 06:05 AM
Originally Posted by Music_Producer Hmm.. my oanda window seems to be working ne. In fact, I have a bunch of windows open. I nd that sometimes, a news article on cnn.com almost always crashes safari. I experienced no lag on this trade. Maybe you guys are using game accounts.. so..:confused:
Nope, I'm live holding 100,000. I don't mind though, as long as I don't stop out. I'll be earning interest on this trade so I'm happy to just let it run as far is it wants. If it stops, I make 5 pips and I'm happy enough with that. If it keeps running that's all just icing on the cake! I denitely see a long downtrend (USD strength, I trade only the EUR) so I'm comfortable in a long term trade. I've rebooted already but I'll keep trying. On the main login screen there is a message about the system being down tomorrow. Nothing about today though. Edit: Ok, it's back up now. Still in my trade and looking good. Lots of volatility today... interesting. Yes Shard, there are always more opportunities to trade! That's why if I miss a move or only take a few pips from a larger move I try not to care because there will always be another trade.
~Shard~
08-11-2006 06:30 AM
Didn't get a chance to trade this one myself, but there's no lack of announcements in the next couple of weeks. ;) This short term trading, in for only a few seconds then out, is cool and exciting, but I think I am also going to seriously consider doing long term trades without stop losses. Sure, there will be dips and so forth, but if I really believe currency X is going to go up/down over the next few months, I have no problems buying/selling and holding. I know it doesn't always work, and I know you can probably make more by buying and selling multiple times as you ride the valleys and peaks, but I think this could be protable as well. Plus, on a currency pair such as AUD/JPY you make that nice little chunk of interest. ;) :cool: Oh, and Music_Producer, you'll have to send me some of your crack, as you explained what I was trying to explain much easier. :o ;) :D
eln buddy
08-11-2006 08:02 AM
I don't think Oanda's downtime was only affecting game accounts...I was also live and got shut out. I'm happy I closed my trade before it happened though, even if I would have made a few extra pips by staying in. I don't think I'd have peace of mind knowing that I have money on the market and there's nothing I can do to get at it :o
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I was planning on trading the BOJ interest rate decision last night, but I don't know, something weird happened. I specically remember the decision being scheduled for 2:00am Atlantic time, so I made a point of logging onto Oanda around 1:50am. I waited for 20 minutes with my nger on the button, but nothing happened. No announcement. Then I checked through the Oanda FXNews history and on Forex Factory, and apparently the decision was made hours earlier :confused: Did anyone else notice that or have problems with it? Or have I been smoking crack too? :p :o
Curren~Sea
Quote:
08-11-2006 09:54 AM
Originally Posted by eln buddy Did anyone else notice that or have problems with it?
Yep, I noticed that also. I have seen it before where JPY announcements are due to come out during a range of times, like for instance sometime between 12:00 and 6:00. Perhaps this was the case yesterday. It was a non-event anyway. If I hadn't already locked in prot, I would have been very upset with the Oanda downtime today. I ended up well ahead on two trades this morning so it was a good week :D
Music_Producer
08-11-2006 05:31 PM
JPY interest rate announcements are never announced at any given time. I remember, once, waiting for 2 bloody hours.. staring at the screen for something to happen. The only reason I traded the JPY interest rate decision last time was because they were going to raise interest rates for the rst time in six years. Curren~Sea.. I was looking at Deutsche Bank's website, and they have a forex trading service.. called dbetrade or something. I gure, that would be a good service, you think? I mean, after all they are a bank.. so they might provide better spreads? Or execution? Not that I'm unhappy with Oanda or anything, but I'm trying to see if there are banks that provide this kind of service. Also, I didn't see mention of any margin anywhere.. so I am guessing banks don't give you a margin to play with.
Music_Producer
Quote:
08-11-2006 05:35 PM
Originally Posted by ~Shard~ Didn't get a chance to trade this one myself, but there's no lack of announcements in the next couple of weeks. ;) This short term trading, in for only a few seconds then out, is cool and exciting, but I think I am also going to seriously consider doing long term trades without stop losses. Sure, there will be dips and so forth, but if I really believe currency X is going to go up/down over the next few months, I have no problems buying/selling and holding. I know it doesn't always work, and I know you can probably make more by buying and selling multiple times as you ride the valleys and peaks, but I think this could be protable as well. Plus, on a currency pair such as AUD/JPY you make that nice little chunk of interest. ;) :cool:
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Oh, and Music_Producer, you'll have to send me some of your crack, as you explained what I was trying to explain much easier. :o ;) :D
I wish I could do long term trading too.. but I've tried it before and failed miserably. I used to hold on to a 300 pip potential loss and pray everyday that the 'trend' would reverse. But it never bloody would.. it would always wipe out my positions. The method I use now works for me, so I use it. If anyone has any long term trading tips, that would be great. Somehow, I just don't like holding on to a trade when I have no idea of what could happen to the currency in the future. If you're holding AUD/JPY.. and something happens in Australia.. I don't know.. terror attacks, war.. whatever (unlikely but still).. AUD would drop at the same rate your blood pressure would rise. I know a few folks who were long GBP/USD a day before the UK terror plot was uncovered. Needless to say, they have lost quite a bit of money .. the GBP tanked after the news bit.. and it sunk even more today after the US retail sales came out. Stuff like that scares me.. so I'll be a 2 second trader for now :o Edit - when i was into stocks.. i remember going long on Worldcom.. we all know what happened to that *grrr*
njmac
Quote:
08-11-2006 06:00 PM
Originally Posted by Music_Producer Also, I didn't see mention of any margin anywhere.. so I am guessing banks don't give you a margin to play with.
Looking around on their site - http://www.dbfx.com I did notice they offer leverage from their site
Quote:
Margin Watcher All account information is updated on a tick-by-tick basis, giving clients a complete view of their account activity. Clients have the ability to select the degree of leverage for their account. Margin requirements are xed for both intra-day trading and for positions held overnight. Based on each client's margin requirement, the dbFX Trading Station will calculate in real time both the funds needed to maintain current positions (Used Margin) and the funds available for taking new positions (Usable Margin). If the equity in the account drops below the margin required to maintain open positions, all open positions will be closed by the dealing desk at the market price.
But it doesn't say what the margin is. I notice they have a 3 pip spread on EUR/USD so because that's double Oanda, what signicance would that have on your overall prots?
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eln buddy
08-11-2006 06:07 PM
The only glaring problem I see with Deutsche Bank is that their trading platform is Windows-only. :rolleyes:
njmac
Quote:
08-11-2006 06:27 PM
Originally Posted by eln buddy The only glaring problem I see with Deutsche Bank is that their trading platform is Windows-only. :rolleyes:
haha, yup and that excludes me. I don't have a pc or an intel mac. I still have a power book.
~Shard~
Quote:
08-11-2006 10:37 PM
Originally Posted by Music_Producer I wish I could do long term trading too.. but I've tried it before and failed miserably. I used to hold on to a 300 pip potential loss and pray everyday that the 'trend' would reverse. But it never bloody would.. it would always wipe out my positions. The method I use now works for me, so I use it. If anyone has any long term trading tips, that would be great. Somehow, I just don't like holding on to a trade when I have no idea of what could happen to the currency in the future. If you're holding AUD/JPY.. and something happens in Australia.. I don't know.. terror attacks, war.. whatever (unlikely but still).. AUD would drop at the same rate your blood pressure would rise. I know a few folks who were long GBP/USD a day before the UK terror plot was uncovered. Needless to say, they have lost quite a bit of money .. the GBP tanked after the news bit.. and it sunk even more today after the US retail sales came out. Stuff like that scares me.. so I'll be a 2 second trader for now :o Edit - when i was into stocks.. i remember going long on Worldcom.. we all know what happened to that *grrr*
Yeah, that's totally fair enough - you have to go with what works for you. And due to the sensitive nature of the Forex market, things can indeed change very rapidly, and I totally see your point where you could wiped out pretty fast. ;) I'll do some research and see what happens. I still have to get familiar with trading Forex in general though before I attempt anything like that. Otherwise I might as well just be throwing a dart at a dart board and making blind guesses. "Hmm, I think I'll sell USD/CHF... just cuz..." :rolleyes: ;) I think one thing that helps individuals like you and I (and other here as well, obviously) is that we are not greedy - at least not to the point of recklessness. We cash out when we're ahead (even if it's only after a few seconds, as in your case!) and we attempt to exercise common sense. So many people's downfall is getting emotional about a stock, currency pair, etc. That just leads to trouble. P.S. I was going to mention that I actually shorted Worldcom during the tech bust for lots of $$$, but decided not to since that would be bastardly of me. :eek: :p ;) :D :cool:
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Music_Producer
Quote:
08-11-2006 11:23 PM
Originally Posted by njmac I notice they have a 3 pip spread on EUR/USD so because that's double Oanda, what signicance would that have on your overall prots?
oops.. I meant the spread before news announcements. Typically, spreads get widened a minute before any important news event. GBP/USD jumps to a 15 pip spread.. and that pisses me off. I have seen EUR/USD jump to 10 pips too. Most of the time it stays at 3 or 3.5 .. but at times, it does go really high. And that just throws off my mental preparations.. kinda like, you're getting ready to take off in a 747.. taxiing down.. full throttle.. and just as you're taking off the ATC radios "There's no fuel left in yer plane!" :p I don't mind if its windows only.. I can use parallels on my macbook.. I wish bank of america and citibank.. all the regular banks would offer forex services as commonly as stock trading services. I wonder why they don't :rolleyes:
Music_Producer
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08-11-2006 11:27 PM
Originally Posted by ~Shard~ I think one thing that helps individuals like you and I (and other here as well, obviously) is that we are not greedy - at least not to the point of recklessness. We cash out when we're ahead (even if it's only after a few seconds, as in your case!) and we attempt to exercise common sense. So many people's downfall is getting emotional about a stock, currency pair, etc. That just leads to trouble.
True.. I used to be like that.. and hence I lost all my money. I did learn from that however and now I'm back. Most people give up, and if they do come back.. they get emotional again. When I visit forex forums to see what everyone's discussing.. its quite amusing and sad at the same time. I see so many newbies taking advice from members.. and losing everything. There will be so many different opinions on where the EUR/USD is heading " Oh the MACD shows this.. so there will be a breakout.. so EUR will drop" .. "The COTS report shows commercials are going long on Euro so EUR will rise" And then, of course, there are those who predict currency directions based on crystal ball gazing :eek: I don't care if I make a 5 pips a week.. as long as its steady prot :)
Hoef
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08-12-2006 08:19 AM
Originally Posted by Music_Producer Hmm.. everyone I see here (almost) is from Canada.. how's it like living there?
Hey man, don't forget the Dutch guy in Texas :p
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Music_Producer
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08-12-2006 04:03 PM
Originally Posted by Hoef Hey man, don't forget the Dutch guy in Texas :p
Lol.. you must be bullied everyday :p
~Shard~
08-13-2006 09:45 AM
I found one interesting offering here in Canada called CMC Markets. They trade CFDs and do Forex as well. Their Forex services seem to be fairly decent on the surface, as they have been around a while and their pip spreads are low. The only drawbacks I see are that it only runs on Windows (although I'd need to be running Windows for the FXCM News plug-in regardless) and that they require a $2000 CAD minimum balance that personally doesn't make a difference to me, but I could see where it might be a limiting factor for other investors. Anyway, I'm going to investigate them a little further and see what I can nd. If anyone knows anything about them, has had experience with them or nds any "red ags" on their website, please share your comments here. Obviously I'll do likewise. :cool:
~Shard~
08-13-2006 10:02 AM
Oh yeah, and what's everyone's thoughts on the US economic data being released on Wednesday this week? Looks like it might be a busy day...
Curren~Sea
08-13-2006 08:56 PM
For Canadian brokers, I looked into Questrade. They seem like a strong company with a good offering. However, I don't see any drawback to Oanda at this time. Their news service and execution provide everything I need to make good money and I am very happy that I am using them. My next account will probably be with ACM, but I'm happy for now. I think there will be some good volatility in the USD this week. It's possible that good news in the middle east and some strong numbers at home will give it some strength.
~Shard~
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08-13-2006 10:10 PM
Originally Posted by Curren~Sea For Canadian brokers, I looked into Questrade. They seem like a strong company with a good offering. However, I don't see any drawback to Oanda at this time. Their news service and execution provide everything I need to make good money and I am very happy that I am using them. My next account will probably be with ACM, but I'm happy for now.
Cool. Yeah, I'll probably stick with Oanda too, since I am now familiar with their platform tanks to my account
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and all that. But if I come across a decent one based in Canada I suppose that might be technically preferable - it depends. ;) I'll let you know what else I nd out about CMC Markets, as they looks fairly good from the initial look I took at them. The ability to trade commodities 24 hours interests me as well, which they offer. :cool:
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Originally Posted by Curren~Sea I think there will be some good volatility in the USD this week. It's possible that good news in the middle east and some strong numbers at home will give it some strength.
Yeah, I was thinking there will probably be strength in the USD as well this week, but who knows - guess we'll see. This is one of those situations where I ask myself, "Should I just watch the data real-time and pop in and out in a matter of seconds based on the news, or, since I truly believe the USD will strengthen, should I just put in a sell order right now on EUR/USD without a stop loss and see what happens long term (long term being 3-4 days). Ah well, it is just a play money account, so it's nice to be able to try different strategies without the risk of a real loss. That being said, of course, I am taking my play money account seriously and am not being reckless with it. ;) It's all about the learning experience. :cool:
Music_Producer
08-14-2006 02:12 AM
I think the USD will be weaker.. if you're basing its strength solely on the war. Remember that the USD strengthened when the war started, as investors looked at the USD as a safe, liquid haven unlike gold. In fact, its the rst time I've seen banks buy currency instead of gold during war-time. Of course, the US wasn't involved in this, so that could be one explanation. If the US data comes out good.. USD will rise.. but i still think usd should go down.. and jpy up. The USD seems to be overbought.. i can almost feel the strain .. lol. Whichever way it goes.. I'll be sure to trade :)
njmac
08-14-2006 05:35 AM
What will everyone be trading this week? anything particularly good for a rst time real money trader?
~Shard~
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08-14-2006 06:53 AM
Originally Posted by Music_Producer I think the USD will be weaker.. if you're basing its strength solely on the war. Remember that the USD strengthened when the war started, as investors looked at the USD as a safe, liquid haven unlike gold. In fact, its the rst time I've seen banks buy currency instead of gold during war-time. Of course, the US wasn't involved in this, so that could be one explanation. If the US data comes out good.. USD will rise.. but i still think usd should go down.. and jpy up. The USD seems to be overbought.. i can almost feel the strain .. lol. Whichever way it goes.. I'll be sure to trade :)
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Yea, I hear where you're coming from - makes sense. Now that there is a (temporary) ceasere as well, it will be interesting to see how that affects things...
Curren~Sea
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08-14-2006 09:19 AM
Originally Posted by njmac What will everyone be trading this week? anything particularly good for a rst time real money trader?
Well... based on this thread we are trading announcements. Check out what and when the announcements are for this week on forex factory and plan your trades around them. I would recommend that you try very hard to take small prots and establish some condence. If you're a few pips up, take your prot, close your trade station, go on with the rest of your day. Then plan your next trade around the next announcement. I will be trading Wed morning's announcements for sure.
Music_Producer
Just traded the GBP/USD for a 3 pip prot. The UK CPI came out lower than expected..
08-15-2006 01:38 AM
Slow reaction this time.. I closed the trade just a few seconds after GBP dipped.. I got in right at the beginning of the dip and I saw my prot as '15 pips' and I was like.. "Wow! Thats good!" Too late.. gbp went up.. and i grabbed 3 pips. Hence, as soon as you get your prot.. just close the damn trade. Next time I'll do the thinking and self congratulatory pats *after* i close the trade :rolleyes:
Music_Producer
08-15-2006 05:33 AM
Sweet US trade :) .. 12 pips prot. Got out in 2 seconds. Next trade coming up for TIC report. Tell me you guys proted from this one.. it was easy.
Music_Producer
1 Attachment(s)
08-15-2006 06:03 AM
Really, really good day! Just bagged 5 pips on eur/usd.. on the US TIC report. Notice how the EUR shot back up after dipping for maybe a few seconds.. like I mentioned yesterday.. I think the USD has been overbought and with the peace deal.. banks will unload the $. Attachment 55088 3 trades, all protable.. I like :D
~Shard~
08-15-2006 06:37 AM
Great work Music_Producer! I'll be getting in the game tomorrow (for fun) with all the US data coming out, so we'll see what tomorrow brings. What are your initial thoughts?
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eln buddy
08-15-2006 08:08 AM
I slept in today and missed the USD announcements this morning. But it's okay, because there's always tomorrow :D I'm going to make a point of waking up early tomorrow to trade those announcements.
~Shard~
08-15-2006 08:40 AM
Any recommendations on which News service to use? I will probably end up using that FXCM one when I am trading with real money in the future, even though it costs $40/month (or whatever it is), but anything in the meantime which is free that I could use which is decent?
eln buddy
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08-15-2006 08:47 AM
Originally Posted by ~Shard~ Any recommendations on which News service to use? I will probably end up using that FXCM one when I am trading with real money in the future, even though it costs $40/month (or whatever it is), but anything in the meantime which is free that I could use which is decent?
Have you tried using the FXNews that Oanda includes for free with their accounts? I nd that it works very well for big announcements, and not-so-well for the smaller ones. Once I get comfortable enough to start trading big money, I'll likely get one of the paid subscription services if it'll make me a few extra pips on every trade.
njmac
I couldn't trade this morning, I had to bring my kids somewhere. Music_Producer,
08-15-2006 08:56 AM
great trades for you, but I do have a question. Looking back at the announcements and expectations, there were 3 announcements at 8:30am EDT, they all came back lower than expected and if you look at the graph - the EUR/USD made a sharp increase. I know if I was looking real time at the numbers I would have bought but it makes it difcult for me to learn which of these 3 announcements was the important one - and what if all 3 had been different? ... compared to the 9am TIC report, the EUR/USD seemed to move just barely whereas I would have expected a big move like the rst announcements of the day. NOW.... you mentioned that you believe the dollar will be weaker, so the move to strengthen the dollar was small and reversed quickly because of this. So here's my question: if the announcements come out in a way that strengthens the dollar tomorrow, will it be expected to be a quick rise for the dollar, then a quick correction BUT if it weakens the dollar - we can expect a BIG move because the dollar is headed weaker??? I am so sorry if this seems too basic for you, I truly am trying not to lose my money. When one thing is happening - its easy for me to see what's happening. When multiple announcements occur, I'm just not sure sometimes what happened.
~Shard~
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08-15-2006 09:22 AM
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Originally Posted by eln buddy Have you tried using the FXNews that Oanda includes for free with their accounts? I nd that it works very well for big announcements, and not-so-well for the smaller ones. Once I get comfortable enough to start trading big money, I'll likely get one of the paid subscription services if it'll make me a few extra pips on every trade.
No I hadn't tried that actually, thanks for the tip. I'll give them a go tomorrow morning for the US announcements. When real money is on the line though, I'll probably look into one of the paid subscriptions one as well.
Curren~Sea
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08-15-2006 10:44 AM
Originally Posted by ~Shard~ When real money is on the line though, I'll probably look into one of the paid subscriptions one as well.
I have real money on the line and the Oanda news service works well for me. The announcements are released immediately. NJ: It's tricky with multiple announcements so you just have to be careful if you're in a trade and it goes against you to be sure to close with a small loss. Don't let a small loss turn into a big one. And, always be emotionally ready to lose because it's inevitable especially when you're just starting. Ideally, your winners will make up for your losers. I agree that this morning would have been a good day to trade. But, I made a plan to trade tomorrow's announcements so I slept in this morning. I love not being a slave to the market! I have already exceeded my August montly goals so anything else I make is gravy. I expect tomorrow's announcements to strengthen the dollar but of course I don't know, and I'll be ready to trade it either way.
~Shard~
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08-15-2006 12:32 PM
Originally Posted by Curren~Sea I have real money on the line and the Oanda news service works well for me. The announcements are released immediately.
Good to know - perhaps I won't be needing a subscription service after all! :) I'll try Oanda's tomorrow and see how it goes... So, do you see any potential signicant deviations based on analyst's expectations for tomorrow? Or is your guess as good as anyone's? ;)
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Curren~Sea
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08-15-2006 01:01 PM
Originally Posted by ~Shard~ Good to know - perhaps I won't be needing a subscription service after all! :) I'll try Oanda's tomorrow and see how it goes... So, do you see any potential signicant deviations based on analyst's expectations for tomorrow? Or is your guess as good as anyone's? ;)
Hm, no idea really. There are a whole slew of announcements so it could be choppy. The main number is the CPI ex-energy. The numbers today were mixed and they could be mixed tomorrow also. I think I'll be happy to just grab a few pips. But then again, if all the numbers are the same direction, i.e. USD strength or weakness, that will paint a compelling picture for a larger move.
~Shard~
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08-15-2006 01:30 PM
Originally Posted by Curren~Sea Hm, no idea really. There are a whole slew of announcements so it could be choppy. The main number is the CPI ex-energy. The numbers today were mixed and they could be mixed tomorrow also. I think I'll be happy to just grab a few pips. But then again, if all the numbers are the same direction, i.e. USD strength or weakness, that will paint a compelling picture for a larger move.
Should make for fun times! I'll be trading (for fun) myself, and this will be my rst "trade the news" type of trade, so we'll see how she goes. I have a feeling already that my slow reaction time and inexperience will cost me, but hey, that's why you pratice things rst! ;) :D
Music_Producer
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08-15-2006 05:18 PM
Originally Posted by njmac I couldn't trade this morning, I had to bring my kids somewhere. Music_Producer, great trades for you, but I do have a question. Looking back at the announcements and expectations, there were 3 announcements at 8:30am EDT, they all came back lower than expected and if you look at the graph - the EUR/USD made a sharp increase. I know if I was looking real time at the numbers I would have bought but it makes it difcult for me to learn which of these 3 announcements was the important one - and what if all 3 had been different? ... compared to the 9am TIC report, the EUR/USD seemed to move just barely whereas I would have expected a big move like the rst announcements of the day. NOW.... you mentioned that you believe the dollar will be weaker, so the move to strengthen the dollar was small and reversed quickly because of this. So here's my question: if the announcements come out in a way that strengthens the dollar tomorrow, will it be expected to be a
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quick rise for the dollar, then a quick correction BUT if it weakens the dollar - we can expect a BIG move because the dollar is headed weaker??? I am so sorry if this seems too basic for you, I truly am trying not to lose my money. When one thing is happening - its easy for me to see what's happening. When multiple announcements occur, I'm just not sure sometimes what happened.
Hey guys, weird.. I replied to this post earlier today and it doesn't show up here :confused: Anyway, let me try and remember what I typed!! The cpi numbers are the most important nj.. and the ppi. Cpi .. ppi.. ok ok, i'll try not to make a silly song about it. Trading multiple announcements is quite tricky.. since you have to evaluate the overall outcome the reports can have on the currency. In today's case.. everything was negative (at 8.30 am EST) so the Eur jumped. And anyway, like i had mentioned yesterday.. i thought that the usd was overbought.. so its time for banks to sell it a bit. Lets say you had 3 results - cpi at 0%, cpi ex food and energy at 0% and trade balance at -10 million. Now cpi comes out at 0.1%, cpi ex food and energy comes out at 0.1% too.. but trade balance comes out at 50 million. In other words.. the deviation on the cpis are small .. but the trade balance deviation is huge. So the market will latch on to that.. because obviously a positive trade balance is good for the economy.. and you will see the currency rise. If they are conicting.. I don't trade. for e.g. cpi 0.1% cpi ex food and energy -0.1% and trade balance stays about the same at -10 million. Today's trade was a no brainer.. i saw all the reports were bad.. so i bought the eur. The TIC came out positive.. so i sold the eur and took my prots.. but since the Eur was in an upward 'trend' anyway, the Eur shot back up. Also.. and more importantly.. the TIC report is not that signicant as the cpi and ppi reports. So it was just a knee jerk reaction.. but i look to grab the most out of every report. Tomorrow's reports are quite important too.. the cpi ex. food and energy. Regarding housing starts.. most of the time, the numbers always come out as expected. I expect the housing starts to come out lower than expected though.. real estate's obviously not looking good. But then i ain't bernanke :p I'm questioning myself if i should trade the JPY and the GBP today.. since the Bank of japan and bank of england minutes come out .. but probably not. About the news reports.. i nd that tradethenews.com comes out a second earlier than oanda. Oanda's news reports are fantastic.. but anything that buys me more time obviously helps. Some canadian reports don't even show up on oanda's news server.. tradethenews displays those. I don't know about fxcm news.. i'm quite disappointed with their trading.. they never executed any of my trades when i wanted them to.. so i won't come close to anything with 'fxcm' on it. If you get serious about trading.. subscribe to bloomberg.. no doubt about it. When I start trading 3-5 million lots (*if* i do) then i will subscribe to it.. it maybe $1700 a month.. but i can make 3 times that amount in 3 seconds with that kind of no-lag news. And lastly.. you all are sleepyheads :p I almost missed today's trading.. because i traded the gbp at 1.30 am PST.. and then i was really tired (have family over) so i tried staying up till 4 am.. fell asleep.. woke up at 5.17 am :eek: Anyway, part of my prots went for second row concert seats to see Mariah Carey with my wife :rolleyes:
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Help!!!! Edit - Oops, almost forgot to answer another question nj (about the trend).. yes.. for e.g. if the USD is in a downward trend.. and the news are good for the USD.. the spike will be temporary. Not all the time though.. for e.g. if us interest rates are scheduled to be announced.. and everyone expects them to stay the same.. and they are hiked..the USD will then break that downward trend.. because thats a pretty big announcement. Small news stuff doesn't affect the currency that much.
Hoef
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08-15-2006 05:24 PM
Originally Posted by Music_Producer Really, really good day! Just bagged 5 pips on eur/usd.. on the US TIC report. Notice how the EUR shot back up after dipping for maybe a few seconds.. like I mentioned yesterday.. I think the USD has been overbought and with the peace deal.. banks will unload the $.
Excellent.... I got 6 pips in... in one trade
eln buddy
08-16-2006 05:19 AM
Good morning folks! Who's up for trading the slew of USD announcements this morning? I've got my nger on the button :D
Hoef
08-16-2006 05:33 AM
Allright .. 14 pips on the cpi news today ... plus 6 yesterday. A good week, if only I was playing real money. Maybe next month :) :)
njmac
1 Attachment(s)
08-16-2006 05:34 AM
28 pips!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! now, I did make a mistake, I bought just before the news came out. I know, bad, bad idea. Even though it worked out, I will NEVER do that again because I think I'm having a STROKE!!!!!!!!! Attachment 55160

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eln buddy
08-16-2006 05:37 AM
I managed to get 7.5 pips on the rst USD announcement...how did everyone else do? Are you even awake? ;) :p
Music_Producer
1 Attachment(s)
08-16-2006 05:39 AM
Hey Eln! How did you do? I got 9 pips.. could have made 30 pips.. but im happy with 9 :D I love it when I'm right.. the USD is in a downward trend anyway .. after that peace deal was inked and oil prices are going down. Today's reports? Well..CPI was as expected (0.4%)..CPI ex. food and energy was as expected too (0.2%)..housing starts and building permits were disappointing.. just like I predicted in my earlier post..so EUR went up. The worst part is I was thinking of buying EUR/USD almost a few hours before the report..because I was so sure that the housing stats would suck.. :mad: ..of course, it could have gone the other way too. Attachment 55161 Nj.. this was another example of a multiple news report.. where 2 reports were as expected.. and the third was disappointing.. or rather third and fourth (the housing starts and bldg. permits) I had a brain fart on this one since i had to think so frikkin quick.. lol :p Owww..my poor head.. ahhh now time to get some good sleep :D
njmac
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08-16-2006 05:40 AM
Did you guys miss my post on the last page?
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Originally Posted by njmac 28 pips!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! now, I did make a mistake, I bought just before the news came out. I know, bad, bad idea. Even though it worked out, I will NEVER do that again because I think I'm having a STROKE!!!!!!!!!
Attachment 55162
eln buddy
08-16-2006 05:40 AM
Well done on the 14 and 28 pips, guys! But njmac, I'd give you a smack if you were in range ;) I kinda gured that the EUR/USD would rise too, but I wasn't nearly condent enough to gamble on it. Actually, the quirk of this trade for me was that the news didn't appear on Oanda's FXNews service :confused: I saw the wave and rode it, but never actually got the bad news. Anyone else notice that?
Music_Producer
08-16-2006 05:41 AM
Nice! You guys are becoming pros now :D Nj..... watch it.. i don't want to see "I lost 28 pips" in your next post.. ;)
Music_Producer
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08-16-2006 05:42 AM
Originally Posted by eln buddy Well done on the 14 and 28 pips, guys! But njmac, I'd give you a smack if you were in range ;) I kinda gured that the EUR/USD would rise too, but I wasn't nearly condent enough to gamble on it. Actually, the quirk of this trade for me was that the news didn't appear on Oanda's FXNews service :confused: I saw the wave and rode it, but never actually got the bad news. Anyone else notice that?
Eln.. i use tradethenews.. and i got all the news in one line.. i don't have the oanda channel open. And they tend to display the news on multiple lines.. kinda makes you think harder.
Music_Producer
The award for the biggest pip whore of the day goes to nj :eek:
08-16-2006 05:43 AM
njmac
This Is Awesome. :D :D :D :D
08-16-2006 05:44 AM
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eln buddy
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08-16-2006 05:45 AM
Originally Posted by Music_Producer Eln.. i use tradethenews.. and i got all the news in one line.. i don't have the oanda channel open. And they tend to display the news on multiple lines.. kinda makes you think harder.
If only I had a Windows box to use tradethenews...:rolleyes: Music_Producer, what do you think of the Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization Rate announcements to come in a half hour? Are they even worth trading?
Music_Producer
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08-16-2006 05:49 AM
Originally Posted by eln buddy If only I had a Windows box to use tradethenews...:rolleyes: Music_Producer, what do you think of the Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization Rate announcements to come in a half hour? Are they even worth trading?
Eln.. i don't think it will move much.. but go ahead and trade.. i might or might not trade it.. am way too sleepy right now. If you're trading.. use a small amount to trade.. since its not that important as the ones that just passed.
eln buddy
08-16-2006 06:02 AM
Alright, rather than trade it, I'll just watch it and see what happens. Have a good sleep, Music_Producer :)
eln buddy
08-16-2006 06:18 AM
Yup, wasn't much of a movement there...maybe 10-15 pips, so barely enough to grab any at all. Fun to watch though :)
~Shard~
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08-16-2006 07:52 AM
Well I didn't fare as well as the rest of you, but for my rst trade of this manner I was happy with my result - 7 pips. I only traded 1 lot (100,000), so that made me $70 in 5 seconds - not bad at all. Just wanted ot be a bit conservative for my rst time out. :) And I was almost in the same boat as you njmac - I've done my share of speculative trading on the stock market before (i.e. buy before news, earnings reports, etc.) and was thinking of buying when you bought, but I'm trying to treat this game account as real money, (otherwise I'm just fooling myself and hurting myself in the long run), so I didn't pull the trigger early. I was tempted to though, trust me! ;) Regardless, well done. But as Music_Producer said, just don't come crying here when you nd yourself looking at a 28 pip loss
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and you get a margin call... ;) :) I'll continue practicing over the next couple months and maybe in the winter I'll start with real money. Edit: Aplpogies for the crappy graphic... :o
~Shard~
1 Attachment(s)
08-16-2006 08:18 AM
... And ironically, I just closed a much more successful, overnight trade! I bought AUD/JPY last night and just closed it for a 30 pip prot! Even better, I bought 3 lots (300,000), so that worked out to $900 prot! :cool: I like making money while I sleep... :D ;)
Curren~Sea
Good job all you pipsters!
08-16-2006 09:22 AM
I didn't pull the trigger on this one because to me, the numbers looked exactly like expectations which, in my mind, meant there probably wouldn't be a very big reaction. Again, I am looking for numbers that do not match expectations which will result in a sure-re move. At this point in my trading career, I am more concerned with protecting my capital and only taking the few trades that have a very high probability of success. Anyway, there will always be more trades. I'm happy to see everyone else making pips!
Music_Producer
08-16-2006 06:37 PM
Careful with the JPY Shard.. I hope you have some sort of denite formula that you're working with.. the AUD/JPY dropped by more than 100 pips just day before yesterday (in the morning) As tempting as the interest is on that pair.. I'm a little wary of the JPY, I feel like its going to rise.. sooner or later. Anyway, tonight there's the UK Retail sales.. if any of you guys are trading :)
eln buddy
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08-16-2006 07:25 PM
Originally Posted by Music_Producer Anyway, tonight there's the UK Retail sales.. if any of you guys are trading :)
Are you trading on the EUR/GBP or the GBP/USD for the UK Retail Sales announcement? Which one do you think it'll affect more, and why? I probably won't be up early enough (or, conversely, late enough) to trade it, but I'd like to understand what's going on just the same :)
Hoef
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08-16-2006 07:28 PM
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Originally Posted by njmac 28 pips!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Cool ... used real money this time? ... How much did you ended up funding your account for? Just curious, about to step into the deep myself
elisha cuthbert
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08-16-2006 08:07 PM
Originally Posted by Chundles Awful tasting beer XXXX is, terrible stuff. You do know why they call it XXXX don't you?
hey man dont knock it its always good when you run out of the good stuff and its still not as bad as fosters
Music_Producer
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08-16-2006 08:09 PM
Originally Posted by eln buddy Are you trading on the EUR/GBP or the GBP/USD for the UK Retail Sales announcement? Which one do you think it'll affect more, and why? I probably won't be up early enough (or, conversely, late enough) to trade it, but I'd like to understand what's going on just the same :)
Oh denitely the GBP/USD.. I think it would affect that pair more because usually the pairs with USD as one of them move the most.. the EUR/GBP is a 'cross'.
eln buddy
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08-16-2006 09:03 PM
Originally Posted by Music_Producer Oh denitely the GBP/USD.. I think it would affect that pair more because usually the pairs with USD as one of them move the most.. the EUR/GBP is a 'cross'.
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Aha, I see your point. I've set up a little experiment for tonight with my FXGame account, just to satisfy a curiosity of mine. I'll post about it tomorrow if I nd the results interesting :)
eln buddy
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08-16-2006 09:04 PM
Originally Posted by elisha cuthbert hey man dont knock it its always good when you run out of the good stuff and its still not as bad as fosters
Way to be completely off topic ;) :rolleyes:
elisha cuthbert
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08-16-2006 09:19 PM
Originally Posted by eln buddy Way to be completely off topic ;) :rolleyes:
so... if your growing up in australia you wouldnt know what the hell FOREX is you would only know XXXX
~Shard~
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08-16-2006 09:42 PM
Originally Posted by Music_Producer Careful with the JPY Shard.. I hope you have some sort of denite formula that you're working with.. the AUD/JPY dropped by more than 100 pips just day before yesterday (in the morning) As tempting as the interest is on that pair.. I'm a little wary of the JPY, I feel like its going to rise.. sooner or later.
Thanks for the concern Music_Producer, but no worries, I'm denitely aware of the situation. :) In this case, I was simply not trading on a whim, or solely for the interest - it was a "test" (since this is, again, my game account) to see if I could use some of my charting/technical analysis expertise from my stock trading on the Forex market. I traded the EUR/USD news this morning, and tried trading AUD/JPY "technically" last night. Luckily, both worked out. :o So yeah, this time is worked, however you don't have to tell me that it will not always be foolproof. ;) I know just as well as anyone that technical analysis means nothing when it comes to fundamentals, geo-political issues, economic announcements, etc. which can throw any predictions or trends right out the window. :cool:
Music_Producer
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08-16-2006 11:53 PM
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Originally Posted by elisha cuthbert so... if your growing up in australia you wouldnt know what the hell FOREX is you would only know XXXX
The point being.. this thread was started as "FOREX" and not "XXXX" or "4X" or "FOURX" :p The nancially motivated mates in Aussie land would surely know what Forex means :D
elisha cuthbert
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08-17-2006 12:04 AM
Originally Posted by Music_Producer The point being.. this thread was started as "FOREX" and not "XXXX" or "4X" or "FOURX" :p The nancially motivated mates in Aussie land would surely know what Forex means :D
some people down here do type it the way they say it so its not as if its the hardest thing to make a connection with
Music_Producer
08-17-2006 01:36 AM
UK Retail sales came out way worse than expected.. -0.3% instead of 0.2%. Bagged 15 pips (hate the damn 15 pip spread on GBP/USD) .. really easy trade. :)
eln buddy
Quote:
08-17-2006 04:20 AM
Originally Posted by elisha cuthbert some people down here do type it the way they say it so its not as if its the hardest thing to make a connection with
Yes, elisha, we get that based on the title of this thread alone, some aussies might make the connection with beer. The point is that if you'd read through the thread, you'd understand that we are not talking about beer at all, and Chundles' reply was in jest. :p ;)
eln buddy
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08-17-2006 04:26 AM
Originally Posted by elisha cuthbert
7 of 13
1/15/08 8:15 PM
so... if your growing up in australia you wouldnt know what the hell FOREX is you would only know XXXX
By the way, I thought I should add that I lived in Queensland and went to school there for a bit back when I was a young trooper. They taught us how to spell more than "beer".
eln buddy
With respect to the little "experiment" I set up last night, here's what happened.
08-17-2006 04:49 AM
Basically, since I didn't expect to be awake in time to catch the UK announcement, I thought I would try to set up a situation where I would benet from any large move of the GBP. Mind you, I did this in my FXGame account, so no need to worry :) I gured that any change in the GBP should affect all currencies relative to the GBP in the same manner. So, if the news was good news, EUR/GBP would fall, while GBP/USD would rise. I took out two trades with stop-losses, one on each of those currencies. As you can see from below, I shorted EUR/GBP in hopes of good news, and I also shorted GBP/USD in hopes of bad news. I set semi-generous stop-losses so that they would be triggered by any major announcement that wasn't in favour of my trades, but also large enough so that they wouldn't be affected by market volatility surrounding trades.
EUR/GBP
GBP/USD Basically, I wanted one of the trades to be closed by the stop-loss, and the other to sink and make me enough pips to cover the the loss and still be in the black.
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Those pictures are of what actually happened, while what you see below is the kind of shape I wished had happened :o
So, as you can see, things didn't work out quite as I had hoped (I lost more money than I made back when I closed the second trade), but I'm going to keep toying with this over the coming weeks in my FXGame account and see if I can actually get it to work :D In case I'm wasting my time, can anyone offer me a reason as to why this might never work?
~Shard~
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08-17-2006 07:37 AM
Originally Posted by eln buddy In case I'm wasting my time, can anyone offer me a reason as to why this might never work?
I wouldn't say it would never work, but just keep in mind that when you get into the hedging game, you're always going lose to some degree, as you found out. ;) I realize the aim of course is to make more than you lose, but that is easier said than done. That being said, don't let me dissuade you! Have fun with it (since it is a game accuont and all!) and see what happens.
Music_Producer
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08-17-2006 01:43 PM
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Originally Posted by eln buddy In case I'm wasting my time, can anyone offer me a reason as to why this might never work?
Because you're messing with crosses. Trust me, I've been there.. I've done all these experiments :) Everything.. trading the spike.. trading *before* the spike.. even trading *after* the spike on the rebound :eek: I've even placed limit orders 10 seconds before the news.. with stop loss and t/p set.. and everytime I have been wiped out. Nothing works like what I do right now, trading right when the news comes out. Sure, I don't get to make 20 pips, 30 pips, 40 pips.. whatever.. I am satised with even 1 pip. But most of the time I do make from 5 to 15 pips. The key here is to be consistent. Everyone makes losses.. I know I will one day. But it will have to be very tough for me to make a loss.. because I don't try out different things. Experiment all you want eln.. on your game account of course, as much as possible. Unfortunately I wish I had done all that playing around on my game account when i was a rookie! Crosses are not that signicant when it comes to trading. When the GBP news came out worse than expected.. banks *sell* the pound and *buy* the dollar. They don't sell the pound and buy euros. Everything is paired to the US$. Well, almost. Oil is traded in $.. so USD/OIL (lol) will move signicantly during war time, or short supply of oil. will EUR/USD move when oil moves? Hardly.
Music_Producer
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08-17-2006 01:44 PM
Originally Posted by ~Shard~ I wouldn't say it would never work, but just keep in mind that when you get into the hedging game, you're always going lose to some degree, as you found out. ;) I realize the aim of course is to make more than you lose, but that is easier said than done. That being said, don't let me dissuade you! Have fun with it (since it is a game accuont and all!) and see what happens.
Yeah.. and that loss can often lead you into 'revenge' trading "The bloody EUR should have gone up instead of down! Well screw you! I'm gonna buy more EUR and make up for my losses!" and it goes on..
~Shard~
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08-17-2006 01:49 PM
Originally Posted by Music_Producer Yeah.. and that loss can often lead you into 'revenge' trading "The bloody EUR should have gone up instead of down! Well screw you! I'm gonna buy more EUR and make up for my losses!" and it goes on..
It's funny cuz it's true. ;) Or "not funny" in this case. :o So many people get emotional over the markets, and that's pretty much the worst thing you can let happen. When emotion gets invoved, logic and reason go out
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1/15/08 8:15 PM
the window and no good can come of that. Many people get burned by a trade, and then revenge trade to "make up for it". A word from an experienced investor - the markets owe you NOTHING. Never forget that. :cool:
njmac
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08-17-2006 07:41 PM
Originally Posted by Hoef Cool ... used real money this time? ... How much did you ended up funding your account for? Just curious, about to step into the deep myself
I was going to start with $50.00 but then I didn't really think that was much different than a game account so I funded with $1000.00. I made $56.00. Each pip was worth $2.00. I could have gone to $3 a pip but I wanted to have a little margin left. I would loooove to start with $10,000 but unfortunately can't swing that right now.
eln buddy
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08-17-2006 08:06 PM
Originally Posted by njmac I was going to start with $50.00 but then I didn't really think that was much different than a game account so I funded with $1000.00. I made $56.00. Each pip was worth $2.00. I could have gone to $3 a pip but I wanted to have a little margin left. I would loooove to start with $10,000 but unfortunately can't swing that right now.
I take it you like to live dangerously, Mr. Bond? :p
njmac
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08-18-2006 01:29 AM
Originally Posted by eln buddy I take it you like to live dangerously, Mr. Bond? :p
danger is my middle name... :p
Curren~Sea
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08-18-2006 12:35 PM
Originally Posted by njmac
11 of 13
1/15/08 8:15 PM
I was going to start with $50.00 but then I didn't really think that was much different than a game account so I funded with $1000.00. I made $56.00. Each pip was worth $2.00. I could have gone to $3 a pip but I wanted to have a little margin left. I would loooove to start with $10,000 but unfortunately can't swing that right now.
It may not seem like much right now, but you want to keep an eye on your rate of return each month. For instance, if you grew your account by $100 in August, that's a 10% increase per month. I would venture to say that most people would be pretty darn happy about that! If you grew your initial $1000 account by 10% per month for a year, you would end up with over $3000. Most people would be happy with 300% returns for the year. If you can achieve 10% per month every month for several consecutive months, you might feel condent that you could in fact dip into your savings and fund a larger account. It is easier, however, to simply watch your account grow incrementally. You get used to seeing the larger dollar values of each trade. This gradual increase feels more natural than jumping right into trades that are $100 per pip, for example. It's all about consistency and compounding.
~Shard~
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08-18-2006 01:00 PM
Originally Posted by Curren~Sea It may not seem like much right now, but you want to keep an eye on your rate of return each month. For instance, if you grew your account by $100 in August, that's a 10% increase per month. I would venture to say that most people would be pretty darn happy about that! If you grew your initial $1000 account by 10% per month for a year, you would end up with over $3000. Most people would be happy with 300% returns for the year. If you can achieve 10% per month every month for several consecutive months, you might feel condent that you could in fact dip into your savings and fund a larger account. It is easier, however, to simply watch your account grow incrementally. You get used to seeing the larger dollar values of each trade. This gradual increase feels more natural than jumping right into trades that are $100 per pip, for example. It's all about consistency and compounding.
Very well said. Eventually you will get to a point where you are investing in future trades with money which is 100% prot from previous trades, meaning that you aren't even touching your own principle anymore. It's totally putting your money to work for you - to make more money. ;) As Curren~Sea eluded to, never underestimate the power of compounding. :cool:
~Shard~
08-20-2006 07:49 PM
So, what are people preparing to trade this week? Looks like several USD announcements on Thursday and some JPY ones on Friday as well. Any thoughts on what the week will bring?

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Music_Producer
08-21-2006 03:53 AM
Hey Shard, I might trade the Canadian retail sales today (5.30 am PST) .. I say 'might' because the spread on USD/CAD usually widens a lot. If its way too much, its not worth it.. and then again, I'm a little wary of the Canadian timing when it comes to news releases.. they might just release the number when i'm busy munching on a cheeseburger!
Music_Producer
08-21-2006 05:37 AM
23 pips on the USD/CAD trade :) Simple trade.. USD is still climbing, massive deviation in canadian retail sales.. expected number was 0.3%.. came out at -0.2% .. hence the nice spike. ( 2 spikes actually) This was also the rst time i traded a demo account with another forex broker.. wanted to see if the spreads widen like oanda's.. stayed at 5 pips on USD/CAD and oanda widened it to 15 pips.. which was pretty sick. I'm going to trade a few more times with this demo account and see what happens to the spreads and the execution. I might leave Oanda, if i get better spreads and the same execution as oanda. Did anyone trade today's news?
eln buddy
08-21-2006 06:41 AM
Damn, slept in again this morning and missed that CAD announcement! No worries though, always more trades... :) Lots of EUR announcements tomorrow morning, as well as some more CAD ones. Think we'll see any big deviation on those?
~Shard~
Quote:
08-21-2006 08:31 AM
Originally Posted by Music_Producer 23 pips on the USD/CAD trade :) Simple trade.. USD is still climbing, massive deviation in canadian retail sales.. expected number was 0.3%.. came out at -0.2% .. hence the nice spike. ( 2 spikes actually) This was also the rst time i traded a demo account with another forex broker.. wanted to see if the spreads widen like oanda's.. stayed at 5 pips on USD/CAD and oanda widened it to 15 pips.. which was pretty sick. I'm going to trade a few more times with this demo account and see what happens to the spreads and the execution. I might leave Oanda, if i get better spreads and the same execution as oanda. Did anyone trade today's news?
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No trading for me today - probably later in the week. Nice pip collection there though! :) As for using another broker, I have signed up for a demo account with CMC Markets Canada. Besides the fact that they are based in Canada and the money stays in Canada (which makes things a bit better/easier for me), they seem to have a pretty solid platform, so I'm going to give it a go in the next week or so, when I have some time, and will see how it compares to Oanda. Their pip spreads seem to be very competitive, however I am curious to nd out if they widen them as well during lucrative trading times. For now though, EUR/USD is at 2 pips, USD/CAD is at 4 pips, GBP/USD is at 3 pips, and so forth, so not too bad on the surface. The other reason I like the looks of them is that they trade CFDs for both shares and commodities. I can outright buy precious metals (not deal with precious metal funds), 24/7, or go long or short on any stock I want, or even an entire index. For instance, I might be shorting the NASDAQ itself in the near future! And, all with only 5% margin (and yes, I am well aware of the inherent dangers of margin. ;)) I haven't tried the platform out yet at all, but it looks good, so we'll see. Since I'm big into the markets and am new into Forex, this might be a good well-rounded comprehensive platform. Or it might suck ;) Oh, and it is Windows only, but I still have my PC so it's not a huge deal for me. Worst case I run VPC on my PPC Mac, or Parallels on my wife's new MacBook when she buys it in a couple months (if she lets me use it! ;)) I'll let you know how it goes...
Music_Producer
08-21-2006 01:50 PM
Shard, don't look at the regular spread between currencies in your new account. Monitor the spreads before important news releases. The spread between USD/CAD shot up to 15 pips at exactly 5.29 am. Before that, it was 5 pips. The regular spread between USD/CAD otherwise is 4 pips, and EUR/USD is 1.5 pips. So check your CMC account at 5.29 am-5.30 am for increase in spreads. (all this talk about 'spreads' is making me hungry :D ) Oanda provides the best spread I have ever seen.. except during news releases. I tried out Swiss forex AMC.. but it honestly sucked. The whole platform looked like it was a toy platform.. and I just didn't like it. So I'm sticking with Oanda. I'm only going to trade with a new broker for non EUR/USD currencies.. for EUR/USD.. Oanda stays. The spread goes to only 7 pips during news releases.. which is not signicant. Its GBP/USD and USD/CAD that pushes the spread to 15 pips and thats irksome. I think you'll realize that as you try different brokers, you'll always come back to Oanda. Atleast thats whats happening to me!
Music_Producer
Quote:
08-21-2006 01:51 PM
Originally Posted by eln buddy Damn, slept in again this morning and missed that CAD announcement! No worries though, always more trades... :) Lots of EUR announcements tomorrow morning, as well as some more CAD ones. Think we'll see any big deviation on those?
We need some kind of a macrumors alarm..where we can 'buzz' each other if we're asleep. "Wake up sleepyhead!!! trade's coming up!" Lol.
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njmac
Actually, we should start a .mac group :)
08-21-2006 02:02 PM
I did not trade today because right now I am only looking at EUR/USD. Once I get better at that I will look at other currencies. Any luck with Deutch Bank? (DBFX)
~Shard~
Quote:
08-21-2006 02:09 PM
Originally Posted by Music_Producer Shard, don't look at the regular spread between currencies in your new account. Monitor the spreads before important news releases. The spread between USD/CAD shot up to 15 pips at exactly 5.29 am. Before that, it was 5 pips. The regular spread between USD/CAD otherwise is 4 pips, and EUR/USD is 1.5 pips. So check your CMC account at 5.29 am-5.30 am for increase in spreads. (all this talk about 'spreads' is making me hungry :D )
Luckily I just had lunch, so it isn't affecting me as much... ;) Well, funny you should say that, as I just conrmed my observations with the CMC Support Staff directly their pip spreads DO NOT move. Ever. EUR/USD is 2 pips and that's all the spread will ever be. Guaranteed. I was impressed by this, so I'm denitely going to be trying them out further with the little game/demo account I set up.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Music_Producer I think you'll realize that as you try different brokers, you'll always come back to Oanda. Atleast thats whats happening to me!
We'll see how my trial goes with CMC. I think it will honestly have a hard time competing with the overall interface and simplicity of Oanda, however it does already beat it in terms of pip spreads, it's Canadian (which is more advantageous for me) and it allows me to trade many other instruments as well in addition to Forex, which is of interest to me as well (not you, I realize.) So, I'll let you know how it goes. I'll be trading the EUR/USD with it Thursday, I think, so we'll see if that 2 pip spread holds. :cool:
Music_Producer
08-21-2006 02:35 PM
That reminds me.. Shard, since you're looking to trade other entities.. such as gold, silver, oil, etc.. take a look at Saxo Bank. Apparently they're the best when it comes to trading commodities, metals and so on.. I have not opened a demo account with them so I don't know what platform looks like. Let us know how the spreads are during news events on that CMC account :) I'm trying out GFT Forex right now (demo obviously) They provide a 400:1 leverage, which might sound scary.. but hey, if you're an elite macrumors forex member.. you'll make tons of money :p
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~Shard~
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08-21-2006 02:41 PM
Originally Posted by Music_Producer That reminds me.. Shard, since you're looking to trade other entities.. such as gold, silver, oil, etc.. take a look at Saxo Bank. Apparently they're the best when it comes to trading commodities, metals and so on.. I have not opened a demo account with them so I don't know what platform looks like.
Thanks will do! I aprpeciate the info. Gotta keep your options open after all! :) (No pun intended there... options... ah, nevermind... :o ;))
Quote:
Originally Posted by Music_Producer Let us know how the spreads are during news events on that CMC account :)
Oh, I will, don't you worry! If they stay solid I may have found my new trading platform! That being said, pip spreads could indeed stay the same, but trade execution could absolutely suck, so we'll just have to see. ;)
Quote:
Originally Posted by Music_Producer I'm trying out GFT Forex right now (demo obviously) They provide a 400:1 leverage, which might sound scary.. but hey, if you're an elite macrumors forex member.. you'll make tons of money :p
... Or lose tons of money. ;) Sounds interesting, let us know how it goes. 400:1 leverage though :eek: I'm guessing stop losses are key with them! :D CMC has 5% (20:1) for all shares and 1% (100:1) for commodities, so that would be good enough for me. As I said, I'll report back once I've had a chance to play around with them more...
Music_Producer
Quote:
08-21-2006 02:42 PM
Originally Posted by njmac Actually, we should start a .mac group :) I did not trade today because right now I am only looking at EUR/USD. Once I get better at that I will look at other currencies. Any luck with Deutch Bank? (DBFX)
Just created one :D http://groups.mac.com/macforex
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Lol, i couldn't think of anything else. I've never used this group feature before. Deutsche bank nj.. not deutch bank (if they ever knew how you spelt it, they would close your forex account hehe) .. next thing you know, you'll be referring to them as douche bank :eek: Their platform didn't look too inviting to me. I need one-click execution, so thats the rst thing i look out for. And then, one-click closing of trades. With many forex accounts, there are too many procedures to do these two things.. i mean ..geez..they're the most important! Why not make it simple? For e.g. I have to click 'new order' .. then obviously 'buy' or 'sell'. .and then an annoying conrmation window pops up. And then there's a lag where everything freezes (you know how windows is) and the trade gets executed. Then I have to navigate to 'open orders' and then click on my order.. then another bloody conrmation window!!!! And so on.. :rolleyes: Edit - Lol on that options pun
eln buddy
Quote:
08-21-2006 02:52 PM
Originally Posted by Music_Producer We need some kind of a macrumors alarm..where we can 'buzz' each other if we're asleep. "Wake up sleepyhead!!! trade's coming up!" Lol.
Ahaha, that would be nice, actually :o
~Shard~
Quote:
08-21-2006 02:59 PM
Originally Posted by Music_Producer Their platform didn't look too inviting to me. I need one-click execution, so thats the rst thing i look out for. And then, one-click closing of trades. With many forex accounts, there are too many procedures to do these two things.. i mean ..geez..they're the most important! Why not make it simple?
This is one thing I'm going to be looking out for with that CMC platform. I know their share/commodity trading is one-click (after entering in # of shares, S/L, etc.) but I don't know what their Forex is like. For instance, if I buy a currency pair, can I just close the trade, as Oanda lets you do, or do I have to open up a complementary order to sell the same # of currency units I just bought, and then go through that process again. Hopefully it's painless as well, as seconds count in this game. :cool:
Quote:
Originally Posted by Music_Producer Edit - Lol on that options pun
Yeah, didn't realize that one until after I typed it... ;)
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eln buddy
Quote:
08-21-2006 03:03 PM
Originally Posted by Music_Producer Just created one :D http://groups.mac.com/macforex Lol, i couldn't think of anything else. I've never used this group feature before.
I'm having trouble accessing that group...the .Mac website says that anyone with an internet connection can use the Groups, but I think it wants people to sign up with a trial account rst. I signed up anyway, but it still won't let me see the group. Keeps giving me an error :confused:
~Shard~
Quote:
08-21-2006 03:07 PM
Originally Posted by eln buddy I'm having trouble accessing that group...the .Mac website says that anyone with an internet connection can use the Groups, but I think it wants people to sign up with a trial account rst. I signed up anyway, but it still won't let me see the group. Keeps giving me an error :confused:
Yeah, I think you need a .Mac account of some form. Sorry guys, but I won't be able to join ya on that one. It's great that you set it up though Music_Producer! :cool:
eln buddy
Quote:
08-21-2006 03:10 PM
Originally Posted by ~Shard~ Yeah, I think you need a .Mac account of some form. Sorry guys, but I won't be able to join ya on that one. It's great that you set it up though Music_Producer! :cool:
I did a little more digging, and it appears you need a .Mac ID of some sort, whether expired or not. Apparently even an expired trial ID is good enough. I think the reason I can't get in just yet is that you need to be invited by someone already in the group.
Music_Producer
08-21-2006 03:53 PM
You mean none of you are .Mac members? :o Oh well, whenever anyone is a .mac member and feels like joining.. please let me know. I love posting here, but that .mac thing will be like a interruption-free group. Also, we won't have to navigate through macrumors/community discussion/anyone into forex?/last page.. We need a one click solution to chat :D
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eln buddy
Quote:
08-21-2006 05:00 PM
Originally Posted by Music_Producer You mean none of you are .Mac members? :o Oh well, whenever anyone is a .mac member and feels like joining.. please let me know. I love posting here, but that .mac thing will be like a interruption-free group. Also, we won't have to navigate through macrumors/community discussion/anyone into forex?/last page.. We need a one click solution to chat :D
.Mac is way too expensive for me right now, haha :) I do have a trial membership though, so I'll PM you my address and you can try to add me to the group.
njmac
08-21-2006 06:14 PM
no, no, no guys.... .mac groups is for everyone - even people on windows computers. You need to sign up for a FREE .mac screen name. Just like if you join a Yahoo! group, you need a yahoo screen name. HERE is the .mac FAQ. The id you make for .mac can be used in the iTunes music store, groups, iChat etc. The group you created does not work for me either and I do have .mac ok, just read the faq, you need to be invited by the group owner. You can invite me: jumpinginpuddles at mac dot com
blinkmg
Wow.
08-21-2006 06:27 PM
So I've been considering forex for quite a while, and it's odd that this thread, tucked away on macrumors, has been a wealth of information for me. I found this thread about 2 days ago, and have caught up. One question though, for music_producer, I understand you use tradethenews.com for getting thos early morning reports that you trade on, but does this service also let you know what information is coming out ahead of time? I know that seems kind of a dumb question. I just want to know if it tells you "hey such and such report is coming out on thursday 5:30am" as well as alerting you the minute of? Also, I remember reading awhile back that you were curious to nd a way to have two cursors - but you also said you were using a trackpad. The trackpad can be considerably slower in tracking (movement of cursor across screen)than an optical or laser mouse. You also might see that your tracking is all the way up in sys. prefs. I own a graphic design rm, and have a 17" PB that I work with on the road, I would never even attempt to do anything that needed a hint of precision with the trackpad. Again just absolutely brilliant info.
Music_Producer
Quote:
08-21-2006 11:22 PM
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1/15/08 8:16 PM
Originally Posted by blinkmg So I've been considering forex for quite a while, and it's odd that this thread, tucked away on macrumors, has been a wealth of information for me. I found this thread about 2 days ago, and have caught up. One question though, for music_producer, I understand you use tradethenews.com for getting thos early morning reports that you trade on, but does this service also let you know what information is coming out ahead of time? I know that seems kind of a dumb question. I just want to know if it tells you "hey such and such report is coming out on thursday 5:30am" as well as alerting you the minute of? Also, I remember reading awhile back that you were curious to nd a way to have two cursors - but you also said you were using a trackpad. The trackpad can be considerably slower in tracking (movement of cursor across screen)than an optical or laser mouse. You also might see that your tracking is all the way up in sys. prefs. I own a graphic design rm, and have a 17" PB that I work with on the road, I would never even attempt to do anything that needed a hint of precision with the trackpad. Again just absolutely brilliant info.
Hey blinkmg.. welcome to our little group! :) Economic calendars are everywhere.. you can check out www.forexfactory.com. They usually have a detailed listing right on the front page.. of what reports are expected for the next 24-48 hours, and what time (EST/PST) You can also click on 'view full chart' or something of that sort and get events much further in advance as well. Also provided are the expected numbers, and previous numbers for the related reports. Additionally, tradethenews alerts you 10 minutes before any news report.. and gives you an estimate number.. which is not that important since everyone knows it anyway. You're right about the trackpad, but i am so used to it, that with a mouse i sometimes 'overshoot' :D With the trackpad i am fast and hit everything precisely. Plus the 'submit' buttons are pretty big.. so if i miss that then i have to be a clumsy oaf! I am so used to being quick now, that i wouldn't need 2 cursors. For all you know, if i did nd a way to have two cursors, i would probably hit 'submit' on both 'buy' and 'sell' at the same time :p
Music_Producer
08-22-2006 03:42 AM
Wake up guys.. Canadian CPI numbers coming out at 7 am EST.. this could be a good trade.
eln buddy
08-22-2006 04:13 AM
G'morning, everyone! The CAD announcements this mornings seem to have turned out to be a lousy trade. Oanda's FXNews didn't even report the results, and the markets barely moved at all. I skimmed 2 pips off the down-swing, but only barely. blinkmg, welcome to the club! I hope you'll stick around and have some fun with us :D
Music_Producer
08-22-2006 04:23 AM
Hey eln.. I bagged 8 pips.. I've posted somewhere earlier that oanda never reports canadian news.. I have no idea why they don't :confused: Got my news on trade the news.com. And the new fx broker i was trying out (GFT forex) completely failed me. It gave me a 'rejected' message twice. So there's no point in trading with a broker with tight spreads but no execution :rolleyes:
8 of 12
1/15/08 8:16 PM
Lets see how the US durable goods order comes out on thursday.. tomorrow is canadian leading indicators but i've never seen it move the currency by much. Oh yeah, US existing home sales.. that might move the EUR/USD. I don't remember how that moves the market though!
eln buddy
08-22-2006 04:29 AM
I think I spoke too soon...Just four minutes ago, at 8:25 Atlantic time, Oanda announced in a "FLASH" that "CANADA JULY CPI UP 2.4 PCT YR-ON-YR". Didn't move the markets anyway though :rolleyes:
eln buddy
08-23-2006 05:39 AM
Just traded the CAD Leading Indicators announcement...bagged 3 pips, barely. Friggin' spread is almost killin' me! Anyone else awake this morning? Anyone trading the USD Existing Home Sales announcement at 10:00 EST?
~Shard~
Quote:
08-23-2006 05:47 AM
Originally Posted by eln buddy Just traded the CAD Leading Indicators announcement...bagged 3 pips, barely. Friggin' spread is almost killin' me! Anyone else awake this morning? Anyone trading the USD Existing Home Sales announcement at 10:00 EST?
I thought it was at 10:30, but regardless, I'll at least be watching it - not sure if I'l be trading or not.
eln buddy
08-23-2006 06:16 AM
There are two USD announcements according to ForexFactory...the Existing Home Sales is at 10:00 EST, and the EIA Crude Oil Inventories is at 10:30 EST :)
blinkmg
.Mac
08-23-2006 10:43 AM
Hey Music Producer, can you invite me to the the .mac group? blinkmediagroup AT mac.com Thanks!
eln buddy blinkmg

Quote: Quote:
08-23-2006 10:49 AM 08-23-2006 10:51 AM
Whoopsies, there's a request for spam ;) Probably best to PM him your email address so spam-bots don't Originally Posted by blinkmg pick Originally it up Music too. Posted Hey Producer, by eln can you buddy invite me to the the .mac group? blinkmediagroup@mac.com Thanks! Whoopsies, there's a request for spam ;) Probably best to PM him your email address so
9 of 12
1/15/08 8:16 PM
spam-bots don't pick it up too.
Yeah I thought of that after, but my .mac account is only to sync up cals, contacts, etc. between all of my macs. I don't use the mail :) The rm I own has our own server. They can spam away :)
eln buddy
Quote:
08-23-2006 10:53 AM
Originally Posted by blinkmg Yeah I thought of that after, but my .mac account is only to sync up cals, contacts, etc. between all of my macs. I don't use the mail :) The rm I own has our own server. They can spam away :)
Haha, fair enough :) Since you're here, did you trade on any of the announcements today? edit: xed some spelling, the perfectionist that I am...
Crimson
Todays movements
2 Attachment(s)
08-23-2006 11:02 AM
Hi everyone, Can someone explain todays drop in EUR/USD? Would the homesales news not weaken the USD? Gosh, I feel like I'm still guessing what news will do what. Is the drop the result of the oil news at 7:30am? Thanks!! :)
eln buddy
Quote:
08-23-2006 11:12 AM
Originally Posted by Crimson Hi everyone, Can someone explain todays drop in EUR/USD? Would the homesales news not weaken the USD? Gosh, I feel like I'm still guessing what news will do what. Is the drop the result of the oil news at 7:30am? Thanks!! :)
lol, I wish I knew what was happening with it today...I lost quite a few pips on that because I expected the EUR/USD to go up. No biggie, but I certainly learned my lesson about taking a small loss over waiting for a potential turn-around :rolleyes: :o
~Shard~
10 of 12
08-23-2006 11:12 AM
1/15/08 8:16 PM
I didn't trade today, however I watched my CMC platform during the USD announcements and the EUR/USD spread stayed a rock solid 2 pips throughout. I'll be testing this again tomorrow, but it looks as though they are men of their word when they say their spreads never change. Regardless, I will still have to execute a trade with them to see how quickly it is lled, etc. - stable pip spreads mean nothing if your trade execution (or entire platform for that matter) suck. ;) :cool:
njmac
Quote:
08-23-2006 11:32 AM
Originally Posted by Crimson Hi everyone, Can someone explain todays drop in EUR/USD? Would the homesales news not weaken the USD? Gosh, I feel like I'm still guessing what news will do what. Is the drop the result of the oil news at 7:30am? Thanks!! :)
My thought was that the new homesales coming out poorly is good news for the fed... they didn't raise rates and now they are more condent that no new hikes are needed and ination is in check.
blinkmg
US Durable Goods.
08-23-2006 12:07 PM
So I'd like to trade on the US durable goods orders tomorrow, but alas, I don't know where I'm going to get the numbers from - I don't have the "trade the news." I have parralells on an intel iMac at the ofce, but I don't see myself schlepping up there at 7:30am CST (I'm a graphic artist, we don't get to work before 10am :D ) Anyone else use anything to get the numbers ASA they come out? Do any of you just stare intently and see which why it climbs or falls?? SEEMS like you could gure out that if that 7:30 it starts to rise a few or more pips the numbers must've been good and vice-versa.. I dunno.
eln buddy
Quote:
08-23-2006 12:12 PM
Originally Posted by blinkmg So I'd like to trade on the US durable goods orders tomorrow, but alas, I don't know where I'm going to get the numbers from - I don't have the "trade the news." I have parralells on an intel iMac at the ofce, but I don't see myself schlepping up there at 7:30am CST (I'm a graphic artist, we don't get to work before 10am :D ) Anyone else use anything to get the numbers ASA they come out? Do any of you just stare intently and see which why it climbs or falls?? SEEMS like you could gure out that if that 7:30 it starts to rise a few or more pips the numbers must've been good and vice-versa.. I dunno.
I suppose you could just watch for the spike and trade it, but that's riskier than actually knowing what happened. There is often a lot of volatility right before big news announcements, and there are often smaller spikes in both directions that could be mistaken for the real thing.
11 of 12
1/15/08 8:16 PM
I have a small account with Oanda, and they provide a service called FXNews to go along with their platform. It's certainly not stellar, but it does provide near-instant updates for big announcements. Eventually I may outgrow them and move on to something better, but for now, it works :)
blinkmg
Quote:
08-23-2006 12:22 PM
Originally Posted by eln buddy I suppose you could just watch for the spike and trade it, but that's riskier than actually knowing what happened. There is often a lot of volatility right before big news announcements, and there are often smaller spikes in both directions that could be mistaken for the real thing. I have a small account with Oanda, and they provide a service called FXNews to go along with their platform. It's certainly not stellar, but it does provide near-instant updates for big announcements. Eventually I may outgrow them and move on to something better, but for now, it works :)
I'm on OANDA too (music_producer should probably get a referal fee or something :D ), I'll check it out.
eln buddy
Quote:
08-23-2006 12:25 PM
Originally Posted by blinkmg I'm on OANDA too [...], I'll check it out.
Fantastic :D
Quote:
Originally Posted by blinkmg (music_producer should probably get a referal fee or something :D )
I second that!

12 of 12
1/15/08 8:16 PM

blinkmg
Quote:
08-23-2006 12:32 PM
I have a small account with Oanda, and they provide a service called FXNews to go along with their platform.
Is this what you are talking about? Or is there some realtime java app I'm not aware of??
eln buddy
Quote:
08-23-2006 12:36 PM
Originally Posted by blinkmg Is this what you are talking about? Or is there some realtime java app I'm not aware of??
Not quite...after logging into the trading platform (whether it be FXTrade or FXGame), click on the "Resources" menu in the main window and the top item should be FXNews.
Music_Producer
08-23-2006 12:56 PM
Hey guys! I just woke up (12.32 pm) :rolleyes: .. I didn't trade at all this morning because both reports Canadian leading indicators, and US existing home sales are not important. The durable goods order will be important this morning. I usually post here with details on what trade i think will be important, etc..so look out for that the markets don't care about existing home sales.. because they already know that the sales are going to drop.. and in fact, if you look at the charts, the EUR did go up at 7.00 am.. although the spike was only 6 pips. Still, this spike is big for a small report. The market pays more attention to Home Starts and Building Permits.. because thats a major source of a boost to the economy (construction, hiring people, etc) If home starts and building permits fall, its common sense that existing home sales will fall too. Nj, actually the opposite.. if the markets get news that rates are going to stay the same.. the $ will go down (even though the economy is good) Markets move on interest rate rumors, in fact last night, I was reading on cnn.com that the fed chief might have to raise interest rates again. So I am not sure if the markets caught on to that this morning and moved the USD up, but no.. the EUR/USD "fall" that you see is simply banks buying and selling. Nothing else. NO news caused this move.. just normal banking activity. Is there any way to know when these type of moves can happen? No way.. unless you know someone who trades in a bank.. at the forex level. If ABN Amro decides to buy 560 million Euros today at 6.15 pm PST.. you will denitely see a spike and wonder "How the hell did that happen?" especially if you just sold the Euro at 6.14 pm PST :p
1 of 11
1/15/08 8:17 PM
Hey blink.. i'll add you to the mac group.. maybe i should post on ical what trades i'm going to think are important and post them up on the group. Those 'color' indicators on forexfactory are ne.. but some of them are inaccurate. For e.g. they always label the japanese reports as volatile (red) but JPY never never moves on reports. It only moves on US reports and the Yuan (chinese currency) reports for some odd reason. I'm not going to try and gure out the Japanese.. :rolleyes: Tomorrow, durable goods orders are most important. Unemployment claims *could* become important if durable goods orders are the same as expected.. and the deviation is huge on unemployment claims. Although unemployment claims have been marked as 'moderate' at forexfactory.. i've seen those reports move the markets, if they deviate quite a bit. On Friday, the Fed Chief is going to give us his usual confusing dialog on the economy. If he's hawkish the USD will go up.. I have a feeling that they're going to raise rates one last time. They should.. they really need to kill this fake real estate 'boom' .. its going to be a major source of the economy's downfall. I never quite understood how the economy could be 'improving' if people are taking loans they can never afford to pay back. :confused:
blinkmg
7 Pips thank you very much :)
08-23-2006 04:23 PM
Yeah. I made my rst pip. 7 actually, on the AUD/NZD news. I could have made more, but I got in late (i'm setting up a free tradethenews.com account on an old pc tonight), and I got out early, but MAN. what a rush :D . I need a "my rst PIP" thing to hang on my wall or something. What a friggin' blast.
njmac
Quote:
08-23-2006 05:51 PM
Originally Posted by Music_Producer Nj, actually the opposite.. if the markets get news that rates are going to stay the same.. the $ will go down (even though the economy is good) Markets move on interest rate rumors, in fact last night, I was reading on cnn.com that the fed chief might have to raise interest rates again. So I am not sure if the markets caught on to that this morning and moved the USD up, but no.. the EUR/USD "fall" that you see is simply banks buying and selling. Nothing else. NO news caused this move.. just normal banking activity.
hmmm, ok - I do remember you saying that stocks go down at an interest rate hike and the USD goes up at interest rate hikes but I missed what happens when rates stay the same... thanks for the reminder. I thought it might have been a condence in the fed that caused the rise in dollar (ination in check is good news for the $) obviously I was reading too much into nothing. I would love to see your calendar on the .mac group. I am making my own calendar in iCal and will publish it also to see if everyone agrees with what I'm seeing. :)
Crimson
08-24-2006 01:36 AM
2 of 11
1/15/08 8:17 PM
Has anyone had problems with logging in to Oanda lately?:confused: I have had some serious issues over the past 24 hours - go gure since I just opened a live account. (although I am not using it yet!)
Music_Producer
08-24-2006 05:34 AM
Absolutely crap trade.. I bagged only 2 pips :mad: The spread on EUR/USD shot up to 15 pips about 30 seconds before the news! 15 pips on eur/usd :mad: :mad: It used to be max 7 pips.. this pisses me off because its eating into my prots. How did you guys do?
blinkmg
I'm confused. U.S. #s not as good as expected - sooooo why'd the EUR/USD go down??
08-24-2006 06:03 AM
~Shard~
08-24-2006 06:13 AM
Watched it, didn't like it, didn't trade it. However my 2 pip EUR/USD spread on CMC held throughout, as I was constantly watching the Bid/Ask for the trade.
Music_Producer
Quote:
08-24-2006 06:14 AM
Originally Posted by blinkmg U.S. #s not as good as expected - sooooo why'd the EUR/USD go down??
I am assuming you traded on the regular durable goods orders. There are 2 durable goods order reports.. the Ex-Transportation order is the important one. The regular durable goods orders came out lower than expected, but the ex-transportation orders came out better than expected. Whenever there are multiple reports like this, and you don't know which one is important, its best not to trade. Always stick to the one-report trades.. less confusion.. and the market moves better with one report news. Multiple reports (especially when they conict.. like today) get the markets 'confused' and the maximum move is about 20 pips or so .. out of which 15 was the bloody spread :mad: Now new home sales are due at 10 am EST.. do i think they will move the market? Possibly not.. if the numbers are lower (because thats expected) .. but for some reason, if the numbers come much higher than expected.. that would be a big surprise.. and would propel the USD up.
Music_Producer
Quote:
08-24-2006 06:17 AM
Originally Posted by ~Shard~ Watched it, didn't like it, didn't trade it. However my 2 pip EUR/USD spread on CMC held throughout, as I was constantly watching the Bid/Ask for the trade.
3 of 11
1/15/08 8:17 PM
I was just looking at cmcforex.com today. They seem to be based in new york.. but you mentioned something about them being in Canada?
~Shard~
Quote:
08-24-2006 06:21 AM
Originally Posted by Music_Producer I was just looking at cmcforex.com today. They seem to be based in new york.. but you mentioned something about them being in Canada?
They actually have ofces all over the world, so they have an American ofce as well as Canadian. They may not be solely based in Canada, but by having a Canadian presence, that means I can deal with a Canadian institution, with Canadian funds in a Canadian account - much better logistically for me. :cool: As I said though, I have yet to trade with them, so I'll give it a try i the next couple days and see how their trade execution, etc. is. On the surface, it looks like a pretty slick platform (perhaps not quite as nice as Oanda) but appearances can sometimes be misleading... ;) :cool:
Music_Producer
08-24-2006 06:24 AM
Thanks Shard :) I'm going to give GFT Forex one more chance today.. for the home sales. Lets see if they ll my orders..
blinkmg
Quote:
08-24-2006 06:37 AM
Originally Posted by Music_Producer I am assuming you traded on the regular durable goods orders. There are 2 durable goods order reports.. the Ex-Transportation order is the important one. The regular durable goods orders came out lower than expected, but the ex-transportation orders came out better than expected. Whenever there are multiple reports like this, and you don't know which one is important, its best not to trade. Always stick to the one-report trades.. less confusion.. and the market moves better with one report news. Multiple reports (especially when they conict.. like today) get the markets 'confused' and the maximum move is about 20 pips or so .. out of which 15 was the bloody spread :mad: Now new home sales are due at 10 am EST.. do i think they will move the market? Possibly not.. if the numbers are lower (because thats expected) .. but for some reason, if the numbers come much higher than expected.. that would be a big surprise.. and would propel the USD up.
I stayed out of this one. Which is good, cuz when I saw the #s I thought about what I would do -- and it wasn't sell :) Is there a place somwhere that will tell me which reports really propel the markets? And what those reports are for?
4 of 11
1/15/08 8:17 PM
eln buddy
08-24-2006 07:06 AM
Hoyo, folks! I missed this morning's trade (thankfully) because I had to attend a PhD defense. I just got back in time to watch the New Home Sales USD announcement, and wow...how the Hell is anyone supposed to make prot off a 15 pip spread?!?
Music_Producer
08-24-2006 07:08 AM
Made 7 pips on GFT forex.. lled me in instantly. But then, there was hardly any deviation on the home sales.. so market's not that volatile. Right now, GFT looks better than Oanda though, because Oanda raised EUR/USD spread to 22 pips at 9.59 am and 58 seconds. And I always used to wonder why the hell I made only 2-3 pips all the time. :rolleyes: Basically, if the market moves by 20-25 pips.. and you're lucky to get in early, you might just nab 3 pips because of the 22 pip spread. If the markets move by 40-50 pips, thats a different story. I have never seen oanda widen the spread so much though.. it was always 7 on eur/usd.. today i saw 15, 17 and now 22. WTF?
Music_Producer eln buddy

Quote: Quote:
08-24-2006 07:10 AM 08-24-2006 07:18 AM
Exactly. TO make matters worse, the spread went to 22 pips 2 seconds before 10 am EST. I was a little Originally Posted by eln buddy curious, sofolks! instead of trading, I just watched the spread.. and it f@ckin annoyed me.. sorry for the I just Hoyo, Originally Posted I missed by Music_Producer this morning's trade (thankfully) because I had to attend a PhD defense. language.. but 22 pips on EUR/USD is absolute crap. What next? 50 pips during an interest rate got backTO Exactly. in time make tomatters watch the worse, Newthe Home spread Sales went USD to announcement, 22 pips 2 seconds and before wow...how 10 am the EST. Hell I decision? was is a anyone little curious, supposed so instead to make of trading, prot off Ia just 15watched pip spread?!? the spread.. and it f@ckin annoyed me.. sorry for the language.. but 22 pips on EUR/USD is absolute crap. What next? 50 pips during an interest
5 of 11
1/15/08 8:17 PM
rate decision?
Heck, if CMC turns out to ll orders nicely (or if you keep doing well with GFT), we'd all probably be better off just buying Windows boxes and signing up with them. With spreads like 2 or 5 pips instead of 15 and 22 pips on weeny little announcements, they'd pay for themselves in no time :rolleyes:
Music_Producer
08-24-2006 07:23 AM
I wonder why this is happening though. I mean GFT, CMC etc.. keep their spreads xed.. so why the heck does oanda widen them? Yeah, sure, they ll me in instantly, great platform etc etc.. but the bottomline is.. that we all need to make a prot. Right now as I was navigating through oanda's forums, it seems everyone is irritated as well about this 15 pip spread. Maybe i should add on their forums that it went upto 22 pips :mad:
Curren~Sea
08-24-2006 10:08 AM
I traded the GER announcement early this morning. Oanda froze up on me for a couple of minutes. That's the rst time that has happened. Plus, the spread was an enormous 15. I am playing around with ACM, out of Switzerland. They have awesome charts. Guaranteed lls in all markets. No requotes. Java based - works on any platform. I will probably open an account with them soon. So far in August, my "Wave" account is up over 33%. My "Announcement" account took a hit today due to the freeze up, but still showing good prot for the month. Yep, this is fun! :)
~Shard~
Quote:
08-24-2006 10:12 AM
Originally Posted by eln buddy Heck, if CMC turns out to ll orders nicely (or if you keep doing well with GFT), we'd all probably be better off just buying Windows boxes and signing up with them. With spreads like 2 or 5 pips instead of 15 and 22 pips on weeny little announcements, they'd pay for themselves in no time :rolleyes:
I hope to execute a trade with CMC in the next couple of days, so I'll deifnitely let you guys know. It's very attractive already for me as far as CFD shares and commodities go, but hopefully the FX component is solid as well for those who have that as their sole/primary focus. I guess what I'm saying is, for me, I'm big into the markets as well, so it looks like an attractive platform overall. As for it being Windows, yeah, that kind of sucks, but I still have my Windows box so it's not a big deal, and Boot Camp or Parallels are other options too for Mac users.
Hoef
Hadn't seen such huge spread at OANDA before. Did they change policy?
08-24-2006 12:42 PM
6 of 11
1/15/08 8:17 PM
Lost a bunch of pips on my game account :mad:
eln buddy
Quote:
08-24-2006 12:57 PM
Originally Posted by Hoef Hadn't seen such huge spread at OANDA before. Did they change policy? Lost a bunch of pips on my game account :mad:
Imagine how pissed you'd be if you were in my shoes, and had lost pips worth real money because of their greed ;)
Hoef
Quote:
08-24-2006 02:05 PM
Originally Posted by eln buddy Imagine how pissed you'd be if you were in my shoes, and had lost pips worth real money because of their greed ;)
Yeah no kidding .... so this sudden increase in spread was exceptional? Can't remember being it so large when the interest rate decision came out.
blinkmg
German CPI
08-24-2006 02:18 PM
Anyone going to trade the German CPI after midnight tonight? Calendar says 1:00am but lists it as tentative...... How tentative? :D I need some sleep. My wife and I had our rst child (boy) two weeks ago today, and work has been busy, and I could use some rest :) Sooooo, if the ination numbers are high - that could hike the interest rates which would hike the Euro (buy EUR/USD)? And if they are low (which is forcasted) the Euro will drop(sell EUR/USD)? Still trying to wrap my brain around all of this. :)
Hoef
Quote:
08-24-2006 02:20 PM
Originally Posted by blinkmg Anyone going to trade the German CPI after midnight tonight? Calendar says 1:00am but lists it as tentative...... How tentative? :D I need some sleep. My wife and I had our rst child (boy) two weeks ago today, and work has been busy, and I could use some rest :) Sooooo, if the ination numbers are high - that could hike the interest rates which would hike the
7 of 11
1/15/08 8:17 PM
Euro (buy EUR/USD)? And if they are low (which is forcasted) the Euro will drop(sell EUR/USD)? Still trying to wrap my brain around all of this. :)
I might do Japan CPI at 6:30pm Central
Music_Producer
08-25-2006 05:43 AM
Hey guys, I'll be watching the Fed's statement today at 10 am EST.. but not trading (not on oanda). I really want to see what the spread on EUR/USD goes to on Oanda. My screen's a mess.. there's oanda, gft forex, cmc forex, cms forex, etc.. multiple windows, with parallels running.. but everything's working ne so far :) If gft will ll me in today, then i might just sign up with them. If Oanda keeps the spread low to 7 pips max, then I'll stick with oanda. Hoef, don't bother trading JPY reports.. they really don't do anything. They move a lot more when the chinese yuan is affected. :rolleyes:
eln buddy
08-25-2006 06:35 AM
I'm also going to watch this one but not trade...After losing all those pips a few days ago, I'm a little queasy, and Oanda's bullsh*t hasn't been helping.
Music_Producer
08-25-2006 07:05 AM
Don't lose hope eln.. maybe its just a temporary thing with Oanda.. hopefully they will revert to the original spread. If not, there are always other brokers, we just have to do the hard work of nding the right ones. :) Nothing exciting today.. Fed chief made no comments on the US economy. He's as boring as a rock.
eln buddy
Quote:
08-25-2006 07:15 AM
Originally Posted by Music_Producer Don't lose hope eln.. maybe its just a temporary thing with Oanda.. hopefully they will revert to the original spread. If not, there are always other brokers, we just have to do the hard work of nding the right ones. :) Nothing exciting today.. Fed chief made no comments on the US economy. He's as boring as a rock.
Oh no, I haven't lost hope quite yet ;) Oanda's spread was very reasonable on this announcement. I didn't see it go over 2.5 pips at any time, even though there was a market deviation of around 25 pips. I don't understand why the market moved at all though...was the market expecting bad news on the US economy and were relieved that nothing was announced?
8 of 11
1/15/08 8:17 PM
Music_Producer
08-25-2006 02:33 PM
No Eln.. those were just regular market movements. At the most i think i saw 25 pips... and as it went down, it went back up again. I am not too sure if the spread was supposed to go up to 7 pips during this announcement.. as everytime this fed chief talks.. people are left confused. There is never any direct answer. What do you think of a broker who has a 1 pip spread on EUR/USD (and at times 0 pip spread) even during news releases.. but charges $5 per $100,000 lot? I did the math and it works out better with the xed fee method. $100,000 = $10 per pip. Say I get in on a eur/usd trade just after the news and make 3 pips. So the broker would charge me $10 ($5 for buying, $5 for selling) and I would make $10 x 3 = $30. So a prot of $20. I think thats terric for just a 3 pip prot. Now Oanda used to widen the spread to 7 pips.. and we would make prot on that.. so its safe to say that we could easily make (7-1) 6 pips+3 pips = 9 pips. Thats $90. On the other hand, Oanda doesn't charge any fees, but recently when the EUR/USD spread went up to 15 pips.. that was like half my prot. There's also the danger of a loss.. as if the market goes up by 15 pips (which is covered by the spread) and you buy.. you're in a loss of -15 already. And then the spike goes down.. so you lose even more. I have a feeling oanda widens the spread on purpose so they can pocket more money. What do you guys think? Is the xed fee structure better or oanda's method better?
~Shard~
Quote:
08-25-2006 02:40 PM
Originally Posted by Music_Producer What do you guys think? Is the xed fee structure better or oanda's method better?
Hmm, pick your poison... ;) I don't like xed fees - I prefer the commission to be built intio the spreads. However, I also do not like brokers who take advanatge of those spreads to increase their prots such as the EUR/USD 15 pip example. ;) Tough call. As you did yourself, best to look at the math and crunch the numbers. If the spreads are reasonable, I'd say that's the best way to go.
Hoef
Quote:
08-25-2006 05:44 PM
Originally Posted by Music_Producer Hoef, don't bother trading JPY reports.. they really don't do anything. They move a lot more when the chinese yuan is affected. :rolleyes:
Yeah I noticed .... will stick to the EUR/USD.
Music_Producer
Quote:
08-25-2006 06:26 PM
Originally Posted by Hoef
9 of 11
1/15/08 8:17 PM
Yeah I noticed .... will stick to the EUR/USD.
EUR/USD, GBP/USD and USD/CAD move really well.
TheTrader
Hello
08-28-2006 08:48 PM
Hello everyone, I only had time to read the rst page of 18 so I'm not sure what you are all about, but since I started to trade in the forex market recently I thought it would be a good idea if I join to exchange ideas. Before starting though, I did do my research and found that Capital Market Services (www.cmsfx.com) is the best online brokerage for almost every reason. Mainly what I like with them is their 1:400 margin on the rst 3 lots, 1:200 on the next seven, and 1:100 on anything higher. Another great thing is their universal account (no mini or standard, just one.) I made some good money in the mornings, and then lost some, and now just play with my practice account while studying. Will catch up more later and hope that we all can benet from this and so nobody will be posting stupid things on here. Sincerely, TheTrader PS www.fxstreet.com is a nice website with a good comparison chart of brokerages for anybody searching for a good company to join. I also want to suggest www.forex.com to use as a practice or if you like 1:100 margin. The reason for this is that they keep everything online simple in their charts, but for extensive research they let you download some great programs.
Hoef
08-28-2006 08:52 PM
Now this is not quite the typical mac topic but it would be awesome to have a wiki guide or something out there where we can aggregate our collective experience and platform recommendations. I think I lost track of the amount of platforms and am still on my oanda account....
blinkmg
.Mac Group
08-28-2006 09:52 PM
Hey MusicProducer, any word on the .mac group you were making? Looks like our little thread is dying :) Maybe everybody is out making loads of cash?:D
~Shard~
Quote:
08-28-2006 09:54 PM
Originally Posted by blinkmg Hey MusicProducer, any word on the .mac group you were making? Looks like our little thread is dying :) Maybe everybody is out making loads of cash?:D
I can assure you that's denitely not the case. ;) :D Yeah, I've been pretty busy myself, so haven't had much time to play around with my practice trading accounts lately. I'm taking a day off on Thursday to catch up on a few personal things, and experimenting with my trading accounts and platforms again is on my list, since I can be home during trading hours instead
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of at work. Hopefully I'll be able to make some headway. :cool:
Music_Producer
08-28-2006 11:28 PM
Hey folks! Nothing's dying blinkmg.. :D .. just no signicant news announcements since we last traded. I will add you to the .mac group tonight.. for sure! Then we can post our strategies there. As for today, I'll be trading the consumer condence report. I'll be trading on 3 platforms - Oanda, GFT Forex and some other one that i haven't signed up for as yet. Sucks though, as i have to use parallels and *ugh* windows. I would have stuck to Oanda (as i have since the last 3-4 months) but their recent pip widening gala has got me a little concerned, and rightfully so. After reading the forums out there, it seems that there are a lot of traders who use the term 'gamblers' for us - news traders. Hmm.. when I used to trade stocks.. I always traded the news.. sheesh.. Apple pays Creative 100 mill.. what happens to Creative stock? It goes up 30%.. isn't that news trading? So all the traders who got in at that point are gamblers? There are some really ridiculous comments, like "Its because of you news traders that Oanda widened pips" That made me laugh.. because news trading has been around since trading has been around! It just seems like the 'chart' traders are pissed off at the news traders. My question is.. why should they be pissed if they are 'chart' traders anyway? Its not like they get in when any news event is announced.. right? :rolleyes: Besides, if i sign up for a service.. i should trade whatever way i prefer to trade. When i used to trade using 'technicals' or charting techniques.. I lost all my money. When i trade the news, i have never made a loss.. you really think i am going to switch back to technicals? Yeah right! There's a reason bloomberg charges $1700 per month for news releases.. all the big boys trade the news. So anyway, logically, I think oanda's just trying to make a little prot by having these insane spreads.. so i will watch carefully.. if the spread goes beyond 7 pips on eur/usd there is no way i am trading on oanda. I don't care if the EUR/USD goes up or down by 50 pips.. its not worth the risk to lose 15 pips rightaway because of the spread. There's also a potential trade after the Fed meeting minutes are announced. If there is any talk of interest rates being raised in the future, the USD will go up and vice versa.
Music_Producer
08-29-2006 06:30 AM
Also, another very important trade tomorrow - US GDP. Be sure to trade that/watch on your demo or real account.

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Crimson
08-29-2006 09:16 AM
This mornings news... again I'm lost. The consumer condence came in lower than expected and dollar went up??? Or am I reading things backwards? :mad: Argh... So far I have not made any money on the news but am making money on predicting the ups and downs - that certainly seems like a gamble but it has worked so far. It takes longer, and it is hard to be patient sometimes. :)
Music_Producer
08-29-2006 02:16 PM
Looks like markets were waiting for the Fed meeting minutes result.. instead of consumer condence. I didn't trade this one, because the spread on oanda, once again, went up to 15 pips. Tomorrow's the big one.. US GDP. Any GDP news always moves the currency.. hoping for a big deviation here so we can make some money!
Music_Producer
08-29-2006 03:00 PM
A really good trade today was the FOMC meeting minutes at 2 pm EST. The EUR/USD went up by 70-80 pips on this report.. and it was not a crazy spike.. it went up nice and slow.. over a span of 30-40 minutes.
~Shard~
Quote:
08-29-2006 03:14 PM
Originally Posted by Music_Producer A really good trade today was the FOMC meeting minutes at 2 pm EST. The EUR/USD went up by 70-80 pips on this report.. and it was not a crazy spike.. it went up nice and slow.. over a span of 30-40 minutes.
That seems like a rarity! ;) I'm hoping to execute some more "pretend trades" in the next couple of days here, I've been a bit busy lately...
njmac
08-29-2006 03:46 PM
I'm on vacation right now, but I will try to trade in the morning if the spread on Oanda stays decent.
Music_Producer
08-30-2006 05:41 AM
Quite surprised today.. Oanda spread remained at 1.5 during the ADP report (8.15 am EST) and 4 pips
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during the GDP report. Bagged 10 pips trading the ADP report..came out lower than expected. GDP came out almost as expected.. but since it was slightly lower, the eur went up .. by 5-8 pips at the most. I got in and got out with zero pips :rolleyes: Anyway, i'm glad that oanda didn't increase the spread to 15 pips as they have recently.. i hope they're back to their regular spread.
~Shard~
1 Attachment(s)
08-30-2006 07:25 AM
If anyone has a messier, nastier way of gaining 8 pips on this morning's EUR/USD trade, I'd like to see it... :eek: :cool:
Music_Producer
Quote:
08-30-2006 02:54 PM
Originally Posted by ~Shard~ If anyone has a messier, nastier way of gaining 8 pips on this morning's EUR/USD trade, I'd like to see it... :eek: :cool:
LOL.. thanks for the laugh :D
~Shard~
Quote:
08-30-2006 02:58 PM
Originally Posted by Music_Producer LOL.. thanks for the laugh :D
Yeah, I dropped the ball on that one, fully admit that, but luckily held on and came out $80 ahead... :o ;) Ah, the markets are so much fun.. :D :cool:
eln buddy
08-31-2006 04:51 AM
Hey everyone! I've been gone on vacation for the past week, so I missed the last week of trading. I'm back now, but school's gearing up, so I don't know what my time situation will be. I watched the ECB interest rate decision just a few minutes ago, and rates came out as expected (stayed at 3.0%). There was no deviation on the EUR/USD, but Oanda still increased the spread to 15 pips! :rolleyes: If we're going to be trading the news, there's got to be something better than this...
Music_Producer
08-31-2006 06:21 AM
Hey Eln, I was ready to trade the ECB interest rate decision too.. but as usual, those folks didn't surprise the market. I was waiting for a hike in rates.. unexpected of course.. but i was ready anyway (just like the bank of england raised rates last month and the pound shot up by 80-100 pips)
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These last 2 weeks have been absolutely boring with news reports coming out same as expected (mostly) Honestly, even if the spread does go to 15 pips.. there is a lot of prot to be made if the news deviation is there. Remember that I have traded the GBP/USD with a 15 pip spread and achieved anywhere from 10-40 pips prot. I traded the ECB chief's speech.. he was a bit hawkish so the euro went up by 15 pips.. I got only 6.. but atleast I got something today. I wasn't going to let a good trade go waste :p All this while I have been watching the quotes on GFT Forex.. they remained at 3 pip spread for EUR/USD constantly.. no changes.
TheTrader
08-31-2006 01:29 PM
A nice 90pip gain this morning sipping coffee. Oh, wait, that was just a dream:( I'm looking for a good article or something to explain news trading, because the newsletter from forexbastards.com said to be watching, but I still don't understand what these interest rates are and how they affect the currencies. Could somebody please direct me to some information please? Thanks:) PS I don't understand why people still talk about oanda.. there are so many better brokerages and online platforms.. like forex.com.. and my favorite www.cmsfx.com
njmac
Quote:
08-31-2006 01:35 PM
Originally Posted by TheTrader A nice 90pip gain this morning sipping coffee. Oh, wait, that was just a dream:( I'm looking for a good article or something to explain news trading, because the newsletter from forexbastards.com said to be watching, but I still don't understand what these interest rates are and how they affect the currencies. Could somebody please direct me to some information please? Thanks:)
PS I don't understand why people still talk about oanda.. there are so many better brokerages and online platforms.. like forex.com.. and my favorite www.cmsfx.com
Honestly, if you go back and read all the posts from this thread, you will learn a lot about trading the news. I made notes from this thread into a word doc. and it worked really well. Soooo, read this thread and watch each announcement and take notes about what happened. Keep reading about what the market is expecting, and then watch what happens at the actual announcement. If you have a specic question, post here. I have done nothing this week because I'm on vacation but I do plan to get back into it next week.
Music_Producer
Quote:
08-31-2006 04:59 PM
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Originally Posted by TheTrader A nice 90pip gain this morning sipping coffee. Oh, wait, that was just a dream:( I'm looking for a good article or something to explain news trading, because the newsletter from forexbastards.com said to be watching, but I still don't understand what these interest rates are and how they affect the currencies. Could somebody please direct me to some information please? Thanks:) PS I don't understand why people still talk about oanda.. there are so many better brokerages and online platforms.. like forex.com.. and my favorite www.cmsfx.com
I've tried all the brokers.. nobody gives me instant execution like Oanda does. A 3 pip spread is good in theory with other brokers, but useless when you need immediate order executions. Limit orders never get lled, market orders get lled at crazy rates.. positions get closed 10 seconds later.. and so on. So yes, even though the spread is horibble at Oanda, I'm still sticking with them because of their awless operation. When I nd a broker who offers me decent spreads and same order execution as Oanda, then I'll denitely switch. As for interest rates affecting currencies - simple. If the US interest rate is 5%.. investors from all over the world will deposit their money in US banks to earn interest on their deposits. Would you want to put your hard earned money in a Japanese bank and earn 0% interest? No. So whenever there are talks of interest rate hikes for a particular currency.. that currency goes up and vice versa. The markets buy/sell more on rumors though than the actual news. For e.g. The markets expect that the Feds will not raise interest rates again. The Fed chief keeps giving speeches in which its evident that interest rates are not going to be touched. On the day that the interest rate decision is to be made.. if the rates are not touched.. there will be a mild reaction (USD dropping) However, if they do raise the rates.. thereby shocking everybody.. the USD will rise by 80-120 pips for sure. The speeches that these guys give also move the currencies.. because you can analyze what they are saying.. whether they are hinting at a rate hike or pause.. and so on.
Hoef
08-31-2006 06:57 PM
all ready to take the non farm employment change challenge? After loosing 5 pips today, ready to make some tomorrow.
Music_Producer
Yup.. this one better deviate by a lot!
09-01-2006 04:49 AM
Music_Producer
09-01-2006 05:36 AM
Didn't enter this one.. no deviation at all from the expected number (128 v 125.. ooooh!) Good thing I skipped.. the spread was 15 pips again.. and there was hardly any movement.
~Shard~
09-01-2006 08:36 AM
I traded with CMC yesterday and found their execution speed to be quite acceptable. I was just using market orders, but everything got lled almost instantaneously and I have no complaints at all. Pip spreads NEVER
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move (EUR/USD is always 2 pips), margin is only 1%, and the platform is slick. I still think Oanda's interface has some advantages, but perhaps it's just me not being used to CMC yet either. Two things I didn't like was that it's a little more difcult to enter stop losses (have to do it as a separate order) and that the charts only update by the minute, not on 5 second intervals like Oanda, however in a way you shouldn't be trading the charts, you should be trading the news at watching the spreads themselves. ;) :cool: The platform overall is quite comprehensive and powerful - I think I will be using it in the future. It allows me to do margin trading on international markets, with which I can trade indicies, forex, sectors, commodities (contracts and spot), etc. - and it is very responsive. It also gives me great control over orders, allowing me to do OCO orders and the like, which my current online platform doesn't. I realize this is a forex thread, and that's our main interest, but being a trader in general, these things really interest me as well. ;) :)
Hoef
Quote:
09-01-2006 06:29 PM
Originally Posted by Music_Producer Didn't enter this one.. no deviation at all from the expected number (128 v 125.. ooooh!) Good thing I skipped.. the spread was 15 pips again.. and there was hardly any movement.
mm for some reason it didn't look that bad .... made 10 pips :)
Music_Producer
Quote:
09-01-2006 10:24 PM
Originally Posted by Hoef mm for some reason it didn't look that bad .... made 10 pips :)
Thats awesome Hoef :) .. although for me it was horrible, since I have traded NFPs before.. and there are moves of 60-90 pips. So this was rather lame (for me atleast) Shard, I'll be wiring some funds in my GFT forex account and try a few trades next week. Will let you guys know how it works out. And we're interested in every investment eld.. not just forex :D Its just that ,how do you predict where oil will go, or gold will be in the future? Common sense says they will rise.. but who knows? I guess I have always been a little less condent about long term trading.
~Shard~
Quote:
09-01-2006 10:32 PM
Originally Posted by Music_Producer Shard, I'll be wiring some funds in my GFT forex account and try a few trades next week. Will let you guys know how it works out. And we're interested in every investment eld.. not just forex :D Its just that ,how do you predict where oil will go, or gold will be in the future? Common sense says they will rise.. but who knows? I guess I have always been a little less condent about long term trading.
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I've been trading commodities and commodity-related stocks for quite a while, so I have a good handle on how things behave, for the most part. ;) :cool: With many things like this, seasonality actually has a big part to play. There are tangible economic factors why gold (as an example) is seasonally strong between certain months, and historically a trade during those months has returned positive gains 10 out of the last 10 years. You can't trade based on that alone, of course, but it denitely helps. I'll do that for commodities, nancials and even fertilizer stocks... ;) :D I can get into it more later if you like, but for now I'm going to nish catching up on my other threads here and hit the sack. 'Night all... :cool:
savar
Wow, this has been a great thread.
09-03-2006 09:39 PM
One more question: if you're holding a foreign currency, such as AUD, is it possible to pull this money out and get AUD cash? I'm just wondering because I talked to a guy one time who claimed that when he traveled he would exchange in a forex account and avoid the ridiculous fees that one pays to exchange money in this country. Also, I'm practicing in my game account trading on fundamentals... I'm printing out economic calendars as we speak and I will be trading them and making notes about the results over the next 3-4 months. When I "go live" I expect to trade solely on fundamentals. But I'm also curious about technical trading. Looking at some of the daily charts I can see that there are huge prots to make just taking advantage of natural cycles, if one can only nd a reliable way to predict them. I know there are a lot of tools out there to analyze investment strategies, but I would like to write my own. (I'm a professional developer but I majored in econ in school.) What kinds of features should go into a piece of software like this? I was thinking that the interface would have two parts. In one part, you select a dataset (e.g. historical prices for USD/JPY), and the software provides some rudimentary charting/analysis tools. In the other part you select an "investment strategy" plug in (would be written in Java also), and the software runs the plugin on the chosen dataset. The plugin would be fed one piece of data at a time in chronological order, just like a trader sees the market. At any given point in time, the plug-in can execute an order (market, limit, box, etc.). This software would produce a chart that shows when this strategy would buy and sell, and what the net prot would be. If anybody is interested I will post back with the results and seek some constructive criticism. I've got a good understanding of economics and computers, but I don't have the experience (I'm 23) to know exactly what this software ought to do. Comments encouraged
~Shard~
09-03-2006 09:53 PM
Thanks for the post savar, great to have you as a member of this thread. :) I have had enough experience investing to tell you that, whether it is Forex or otherwise, past results are no indication of future performance, so technical analysis can only take you so far. A stock can be indicating a double bottom with a low RSI for instance, and just when you think it will go up, the company announces a major setback and the stock tanks - and then your predictive charting is out the window - such are the limitations of technical analysis. That being said, they are an important part (but only a part) or the overall picture, combined with fundamentals as an example. Me, I trade on news, fundamentals, pre-news, and technicals - the whole shooting match, depending on the situation and my investment strategy with whichever security I'm focusing on.
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So, I guess what I'm saying is that I think you can get burned by simply trying to calculate patterns and the corresponding buy/sell opportunities, however they do exist if you could somehow accurately predict them, so I'm denitely interested in any progress you make in pursuing this. I'm not sure how I could be of assistance, but let me know if you can think of anything. :cool: Again, welcome to the thread, hopefully it's been of benet to you. If you have any other questions, post away. I am not as experienced and well-versed in forex specically as some other members here are (they put me to shame!), however I have expertise in other areas of ance and investing, so it's all good together, we make a good team here, I'd like to think. ;) :cool:
njmac
Quote:
09-04-2006 05:57 AM
Originally Posted by savar Wow, this has been a great thread.
Welcome to the Forex thread. :) You can PM music_producer with your email address and join our .mac group. I don't think software that can execute your trade automatically is a good idea. Let's say your technical indicators say that you should buy the USD. Everything lines up on the charts for a move.... then a terrorist strike happens in the US. Your charts could NEVER have predicted that, and your trade goes south very, very quickly. You could lose everything. I would love to know how, as an econ major, how you easy you will nd trading forex. I imagine it will give you a huge advantage. You will probably grasp the news releases and their meanings/effects more easily. I wish I had majored in economics.
~Shard~
Quote:
09-04-2006 09:16 AM
Originally Posted by njmac I would love to know how, as an econ major, how you easy you will nd trading forex. I imagine it will give you a huge advantage. You will probably grasp the news releases and their meanings/effects more easily. I wish I had majored in economics.
My philosophy is it's never to late to learn. ;) :cool:
Music_Producer
09-04-2006 04:25 PM
Hey Savar, welcome to the thread :) I don't think you can pull out cash in other currencies if your base currency (the one in which the account is opened with) is different. If you open an account with USD, you can only withdraw USD. Shard.. nice avatar btw :D
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~Shard~
Quote:
09-04-2006 07:11 PM
Originally Posted by Music_Producer Shard.. nice avatar btw :D
Thanks. :) I thought it was time that I made some modications to my "hackintosh" avatar... :cool:
Music_Producer
1 Attachment(s)
09-05-2006 01:34 AM
This one has to be the fastest trade I ever carried out.. you can see from the pic, I got in right before the dip. Tradethenews got this one out pretty quick.. and Oanda kept the GBP/USD spread very reasonable to 5 pips. Bagged a 7 pip prot :D The report was the UK Services PMI.. came out slightly lower than expected. Attachment 56677
Music_Producer
Couple of possible trades tomorrow..
09-05-2006 05:36 PM
4.30 am EST GBP/USD - GBP Industrial production - I will only trade this if the spread on GBP/USD is decent - if its 15 pips, I will not be trading. Usually the spread widens about a minute or 40 seconds before the news announcement. 8.30 am EST EUR/USD - USD Nonfarm productivity 9 am EST - USD/CAD - Canadian interest rate decision. I just watched the Aussie interest rate decision and they kept the rates the same..so no trade. Tomorrow, its widely expected that the Canadian interest rates will be kept the same.. but if they do raise them.. I will sell USD/CAD 10 am EST is USD ISM non-manufacturing index.. but i am usually asleep before that time :D
~Shard~
Quote:
09-05-2006 06:19 PM
Originally Posted by Music_Producer Couple of possible trades tomorrow.. 4.30 am EST GBP/USD - GBP Industrial production - I will only trade this if the spread on GBP/USD is decent - if its 15 pips, I will not be trading. Usually the spread widens about a minute or 40 seconds before the news announcement. 8.30 am EST EUR/USD - USD Nonfarm productivity 9 am EST - USD/CAD - Canadian interest rate decision. I just watched the Aussie interest rate
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decision and they kept the rates the same..so no trade. Tomorrow, its widely expected that the Canadian interest rates will be kept the same.. but if they do raise them.. I will sell USD/CAD 10 am EST is USD ISM non-manufacturing index.. but i am usually asleep before that time :D
Thanks for the head's up Music_Producer. I won't be able to trade tomorrow since I have to go into work early, but I'll denitely watch the announcements and see how it affects the currency pairs. You can observe a lot just by looking. ;) :)
Hoef
Quote:
09-05-2006 08:19 PM
Originally Posted by Music_Producer 8.30 am EST EUR/USD - USD Nonfarm productivity
It's the best I can do in my time zone so I'll give it a shot
eln buddy
09-05-2006 09:33 PM
Oi! Hello again, everyone! I'm going to try to hit up tomorrow's trades, but it all depends on how early I get up. School starts in two days, so I should probably try to get back on my early-morning schedule :) savar and TheTrader, welcome to the club!
mooncaine
What are pips? I happened across this thread accidentally, and I'm fascinated. What are pips, please?
09-05-2006 10:00 PM
eln buddy
Quote:
09-06-2006 05:47 AM
Originally Posted by mooncaine I happened across this thread accidentally, and I'm fascinated. What are pips, please?
Have you read the rest of the thread?
Music_Producer
09-06-2006 06:26 AM
No trades as yet.. everything was as expected.. but holy cr$p!!!!!! The 24 inch iMac just got launched :eek: :D :eek: :D Thats more exciting than a 70 pip prot lol
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Wb eln! Good luck with rearranging your sleep schedule.. I hate doing that (when i y overseas) I'm all awake right now.. looking at the imac specs.. guess I'll have to drink a beer to go to sleep :p
~Shard~
Quote:
09-06-2006 06:45 AM
Originally Posted by mooncaine I happened across this thread accidentally, and I'm fascinated. What are pips, please?
Read through the thread - all is explained, and plenty more! :) If you really want to learn, it's worth taking the time and effort to read through everything, there's lots of great info here. :cool:
hoyboy9
09-06-2006 04:44 PM
Hey guys! I've been following this thread with interest. I want to get into short term stock trading or forex and have been investigating both. I have a question about (United States) capital gains tax. Let me set up an example. Say you buy $1000 in USD/EUR and sell out, making $1200. That leaves you with a $200 prot. After the pip spread has been deducted, say that leaves you with $100 prot. At this point, are you paying capital gains tax on $200, or $100? What is the tax rate on those prots? I've read about a 60/40 long-term/short-term split if you decide to forgo Section 988 IRS rules (for an overall 23% tax rate). Can you ll in some of the details here?
Music_Producer
GBP Trade
1 Attachment(s)
09-07-2006 04:14 AM
I've been having quite a bit of fun shorting the GBP/USD today. The pound has been hammered anyway because of all the political chaos going on in England, on top of that.. the Bank of England did not raise interest rates. So I've been shorting.. and buying back.. at 5 pip prot intervals. Total prot = 40 pips :D Attachment 56799 And Oanda has been playing very nice. The spread on GBP/USD was 2.8 pips! :eek: I was expecting 15 as always.. for a few seconds I thought something was wrong with my platform.. but the spread remained at 2.8 all throughout.. enabling me to execute these multi-protable trades. I expect the GBP to go through some crazy ranges today.. especially when UK prime minister Tony Blair is expected to speak (9am ET-10 am ET) The pound has the potential to move up or down by 50-100 pips (I'm guessing) I won't be trading though.. because I have no idea what the exact time will be when he speaks.. and its too late for me anyway. Besides, I'm very satised with 40 pips for the day. Apparently he is going to announce that he will quit by next year..
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Music_Producer
09-07-2006 04:15 AM
Hoyboy.. the capital gains tax is only the prot that you make .. not on any spreads that the broker earns. If you made $5000 prot for 2006.. you have to pay tax on that $5000. I am not sure what the rate is.. I let my software do all the work.. I merely ll in the details.
Music_Producer
09-11-2006 05:27 AM
Hey folks! I traded the GBP today (at 4.30 am EST) The GBP PPI came out worse than expected.. and the pound dropped by 30 pips.. and continued to drop to about 40-50 pips or so. I bagged 15 out of those (Oanda took another 15 via their crazy spread) The UK trade balance also came out slightly worse than expected. Canadian housing starts (at 8.15 am EST) was a no-trade.. there was hardly any deviation on the report. Tomorrow, the US Trade balance is due at 8.30 am EST.. and that should be a good trade (provided it deviates a bit) I posted on Friday regarding my USD/CAD trade.. but for some reason, it doesn't show up here. :confused: That was a really good trade because the Canadian $ dropped by 40-50 pips against the US$. Canadian employment reports came out pretty disappointing.. I think the prediction was -0.1% and it came out at -1.2% .. so a pretty big deviation. Even though the spread was 15 pips on USD/CAD it was fairly easy to snatch atleast 15-20 pips out of that one. Good luck for tomorrow!

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~Shard~
Quote:
09-11-2006 06:44 AM
Originally Posted by Music_Producer Hey folks! I traded the GBP today (at 4.30 am EST) The GBP PPI came out worse than expected.. and the pound dropped by 30 pips.. and continued to drop to about 40-50 pips or so. I bagged 15 out of those (Oanda took another 15 via their crazy spread) The UK trade balance also came out slightly worse than expected. Canadian housing starts (at 8.15 am EST) was a no-trade.. there was hardly any deviation on the report. Tomorrow, the US Trade balance is due at 8.30 am EST.. and that should be a good trade (provided it deviates a bit) I posted on Friday regarding my USD/CAD trade.. but for some reason, it doesn't show up here. :confused: That was a really good trade because the Canadian $ dropped by 40-50 pips against the US$. Canadian employment reports came out pretty disappointing.. I think the prediction was -0.1% and it came out at -1.2% .. so a pretty big deviation. Even though the spread was 15 pips on USD/CAD it was fairly easy to snatch atleast 15-20 pips out of that one. Good luck for tomorrow!
As always, thanks for the updates Music_Producer! You continue to provide us with great insight, and seeing your results, and how you trade based on the news continues to provide concrete examples to the rest of us - I, for one, appreciate it. :) Things have been hectic the past little bit here, but I hope to do some more trades myself (pretend of course) soon. :cool:
Hoef
Hi Music_Producer, care to reect on this week's USD action? - Thu retail sales - Fri CPI Going to be an exiting week!
09-11-2006 06:22 PM
Music_Producer
09-12-2006 01:53 AM
Hoef.. the US CPI is the trade to look out for.. (trade the retail sales too.. as they might deviate) like today's GBP trade.. (GBP shot up by 60 pips :eek: ) The UK CPI came out much higher than expected so the pound practically hammered the dollar. I made 38 pips .. my best trade in a long time. :D *But* I am switching from Oanda to GFT Forex. Oanda had the spread on GBP/USD at 15 pips.. and kept it at 10 pips for a FULL 8 minutes! If only they could hear me on the phone right now. Yes, I made a prot.. but a 10 pip spread for so many minutes is unheard of. Usually the spread falls back to 3.5 pips within a couple of seconds after a news release.. or at the most - a minute. I am guessing Oanda is getting greedy and I am quite apalled by this.
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1/15/08 8:18 PM
Executions on GFT were instant, and the spread remained at 5 pips.
Music_Producer
09-12-2006 05:50 AM
Geez.. just when i think of quitting Oanda.. made 20 pips on the EUR/USD. The US trade balance came worse than expected (man, i already knew that.. i wish i had placed a trade before the news report) and the eur jumped by 40 pips. I got out, and almost a couple of seconds later, the EUR tanked.. back to where it started its rise.. and dropped by 30 pips gradually! Its always a good thing to get out early.
Curren~Sea
Just an update from me since I haven't posted for awhile:
09-12-2006 11:17 AM
1. I am trading announcements on Oanda and it's going very good. While the prots aren't mind-boggling, I realized a modest 5% return in August and I'm currently up another 5% in Sep. Compounded, that's pretty good. 2. I am also trading a different account using various strategies and this account realized 50% in Aug and is well ahead in Sep so far. Keep learning and you'll nd a strategy and style that works for you!
~Shard~
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09-12-2006 11:21 AM
Originally Posted by Curren~Sea Keep learning and you'll nd a strategy and style that works for you!
I think that's a good point - do whatever works for you. For some of us, it's getting up early and making trades that last 10-15 seconds on news spikes. For others, perhaps it's long term trades based on fundamentals. Others prefer using technical analysis to dictate how they will trade. Some trade forex, as we do here, others stocks, others commodities - there's lots out there! In the end, if it works for you, it's all good. :cool:
njmac
I hope everyone is doing well. :)
09-13-2006 01:36 PM
I have not traded since my stellar 28 pips ;) because I have been working. (I'm a freelancer and have a very busy September month...) But will be back in the swing in October. I check this thread everyday though to keep up on what's going on, tips etc.
~Shard~
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09-13-2006 06:52 PM
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Originally Posted by njmac I hope everyone is doing well. :) I have not traded since my stellar 28 pips ;) because I have been working. (I'm a freelancer and have a very busy September month...) But will be back in the swing in October. I check this thread everyday though to keep up on what's going on, tips etc.
Good to see you again njmac. I'm in a similar boat - I've been very busy lately, but always read the thread whenever there is a new post. Hopefully when things calm down a bit I get back into trading and contribute more to the thread. ;)
Music_Producer
09-14-2006 12:31 AM
Two trades today to look out for if there is deviation - UK Retail Sales and USA Retail Sales. Hope these deviate by a big number :)
Music_Producer
Wow.. just wow. Made a 2 pip prot on GBP/USD. Guess what Oanda's spread was? 25 pips. See Ya OandA
09-14-2006 01:48 AM
Music_Producer
09-14-2006 05:51 AM
Awesome trade! USD retail sales came out better than expected.. a big deviation (exp was -0.2%.. came out at +0.2%) The eur has dropped 40 pips so far.. and still falling...sorry, make that 50 pips! MB trading lled me in quite nicely and I got 29 pips. This, despite the fact that the EUR was appreciating because of ECB comments that EUR interest rates will likely be hiked. I love news like this when its totally unexpected, because this is what moves the markets the most. :D
~Shard~
09-14-2006 06:52 PM
Thanks again for the updates Music_Producer - I hope to be back in the trading game with ya soon! ;) :cool: That's crazy about Oanda's spreads. I have signed up for a full-edged CMC account and will let everyone know how it goes. As well as forex though, I'll be trading stocks, indicies and commodities, so I am not using it solely as a forex platform. But one thing that I do know is that they NEVER widen their spreads. EUR/USD is always 2 pips, always. :cool:
Hoef
Quote:
09-14-2006 08:10 PM
Originally Posted by Music_Producer Awesome trade! USD retail sales came out better than expected.. a big deviation (exp was -0.2%..
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came out at +0.2%) The eur has dropped 40 pips so far.. and still falling...sorry, make that 50 pips! MB trading lled me in quite nicely and I got 29 pips. This, despite the fact that the EUR was appreciating because of ECB comments that EUR interest rates will likely be hiked. I love news like this when its totally unexpected, because this is what moves the markets the most. :D
Excellent .... just made 3 but with the insane spread I am not complaining. Can we have a tally of what trading platform people are using? I am about to say goodbye to my game account and go live but still not set on a platform (only tried Oanda). Music_Producer, did you make the switch to GFT Forex and are you using that in Parallels?
Music_Producer
09-15-2006 03:07 AM
Hoef and Shard - I've tried almost every broker who maintains a xed spread on all currency pairs.. during news times, but I have found out that almost 99% of them will never ll your orders when the market is volatile. So, I have to give that honor to Oanda.. they have never failed me when it comes to instant execution. I've tried forex.com, fxcm, fxdd, deutsche bank (they use fxcm.. who would have thought?) hotspotfx.com, interbank fx.. lol.. you name it. GFT was a *little* slow at market executions.. Mb Trading performed very well last night for the US trade that I carried out. I have a live account with MB trading Hoef, GFT is still a demo one. For sure though, I will choose between GFT and Mb Trading. I use parallels for both GFT and MB Trading software. Parallels runs great. no complaints at all. I've heard people say that Oanda is keeping their spreads high to scare off news traders.. and that it might be a temporary move. Lets see.. when they're back to resonable spreads, I might just go back.. but for now, no thanks. Shard, if you've noticed.. the price of oil has started to drop.. now that the elections are coming up in November. Coincidence? :p
Music_Producer
09-15-2006 05:44 AM
Disappointing data.. CPI came out as expected.. so EUR jumped 15 pips and then down.. and then up again. I traded with MB, got about 7 pips and got out. Execution was a little slow, but when you click on' buy' or 'sell' you get lled in at the rate that you see on the screen.. its not like they change the rate due to the delay.. so I was very happy. These USD bulls are ridiculous.. the EUR, in my opinion.. should go to 1.2900 or atleast 1.3000. There are greater chances of the Euro interest rates being hiked, the EUR economy is faring better as well. Hoef, did you trade? The spread went up to 15 pips on Oanda.. so if you got in early, you probably made a loss (unless you sold after the rst spike)
Hoef
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09-15-2006 06:02 AM
Originally Posted by Music_Producer
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Hoef, did you trade? The spread went up to 15 pips on Oanda.. so if you got in early, you probably made a loss (unless you sold after the rst spike)
I did ... I tried to get in after the big EUR jump up guring that the EUR would come down again (looking at the trendlines) which it did, so ended up netting 13 pips. Not bad.
~Shard~
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09-15-2006 03:14 PM
Originally Posted by Music_Producer Shard, if you've noticed.. the price of oil has started to drop.. now that the elections are coming up in November. Coincidence? :p
Yes, I have noticed - and nope, not at all... ;) cool:
Hoef
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09-15-2006 04:03 PM
Originally Posted by Music_Producer I've heard people say that Oanda is keeping their spreads high to scare off news traders.. and that it might be a temporary move. Lets see.. when they're back to resonable spreads, I might just go back.. but for now, no thanks.
Conrmed I sent them an email asking what was going on, this was their response... OANDAs FXTrade spreads vary over time depending on a number of factors, including the currency pair in question, the time of day, the day of week, general market conditions, timing of anticipated announcements, etc. Typically, during normal market conditions you will nd the spreads to be in the 1.5-3 pip range on most of the currency pairs. As you know, we have increased the spreads at the time of newsreleases. We expect them to continue to be increased at news releases,and we'd like to give you some additional background on why this occurs: Today,traders and market makers execute the bulk of their transactionselectronically. This has increased the speed of trading. Even thoughthis development is a good thing overall, it has had the negativeeffect of increasing the peaks of transaction volume at the time ofnews events. Not just at OANDA, but everywhere. Whenever this happensglobal liquidity dries up and exchange rates literally jump to a newprice level. From a risk management point of view, at times ofnews events, when there is relatively tight liquidity coupled withpotentially large
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volatility, the situation is more problematic thanover the weekend, where liquidity might be very tight but there is novolatility in the common case. Market makers, globally, have toresponded to this development by widening there spreads at the time omportant market events. Given the overall level of uncertainty in thenancial markets, OANDA has been forced to follow this development andalso increase spreads at the time of news releases. We atOANDA can assure you that having tight spreads lies very close to ourheart. We will do everything in our to power keep the spreads as low aswe possibly can, and in particular, to minimize the magnitude and timeof spread increases. We encourage our clients who typically use tightstops widen their stop loss bands prior to news releases. Also, clientswho trade at news events should understand that prices can movequickly, with large gaps, and that considerable slippage can ensue. If you have any further questions, please feel free to contact us. Kind Regards, The OANDA FXTrade Team
honamos
New Poster
09-17-2006 11:07 AM
Hello All, I'm a new poster to this board. I've delved in Forex a little in the past. Only with game accounts though. I've used Forex.com and it's not that bad, in my opinion. However, I have nothing to compare it against. Now I'm trying Oanda. I've read this forum a bit and I'm impressed with much of the insight on these boards. I like the concept of trading on news. Tomorrow (Monday) will be my rst trade on news. I am looking at Forex Factory's calendar and I'm looking at: EUR Industrial Production m/m My question is, how do I know what the announcement is? Some of you use paid services like tradethenews.com, but at 5AM, when it's announced, how do I know what it will be?
Music_Producer
09-18-2006 01:17 AM
Hey honamos.. welcome to the thread. :) You can get the news on Oanda.. just click on 'resources' and then 'news' .. a separate news window opens up. Tradethenews is not all that reliable.. sometimes they are faster than Oanda, sometimes they're the same. Remember, that any major deviation in an expected result .. causes major moves in the currency. If the news comes out more or less the same, the currency might move maybe 15 pips at the most (up or down) A denite trade to watch out for is during interest rate decisions (US, EUR and GBP) Most of the times, the interest rates are announced as expected i.e. if the UK bank is expected to keep interest rates same at 4.5%.. they will not change. However, if the banks surprise the markets by announcing a rate hike(or cut) you can expect that currency to move by 80-100 pips. For sure, 100%.. without a doubt. I am not trading the EUR industrial report because it doesn't move the currencies that much. Its also a m/m (monthly report) so the markets don't take note of it that much. Of course, if it deviates by some insanely crazy number then the markets will take notice.. but usually it doesnt.
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I'll be trading the US Current Account at 8.30 am EST..if it deviates quite a bit, I'll enter the trade. Before a trade.. (usually 15 mins before) I make a note of what the forecast number is going to be.. and memorize it... That way, when i see the news come out.. i know if it deviates by a lot or not much and accordingly I can trade. Oanda was great for every trade, but lately they have increased their spreads, so you might actually make a loss on small deviation trades..because the spread will eat up your prots. Hoef, thats the usual reply they give everytime someone asks about their spread policy. I would love to ask them why GFT, MB Trading, etc dont raise their spreads during news time. Oanda seriously has no excuses, I am just tired of whatever reason they might give to justify their spreads.
honamos
Hey MP. You're the man. If Oanda has crappied their spreads, what else can I use (on a mac)?
09-18-2006 05:07 AM
Music_Producer
09-18-2006 06:08 AM
Just made 12 pips on the TIC report (Eur jumped by 25 pips or so) . The Current Account didn't move the markets. Honestly, i don't think there's anything else for the mac, besides Oanda. I am using Parallels for trading. I know its windows and all that but it works pretty good, and its convenient because I have a tradethenews window open in one corner, and the trading window lls up the main screen. Here's hoping that a lot of customers leave Oanda and they come back to their senses. :p
honamos
I'm not entirely sure what I did, but I seemed to have made $1.42 (Game).
09-18-2006 06:59 AM
I bought 1000 EUR/USD at 1.26719 and then sold 1000 at 1.26861. I guess that's quite a few pips? This was in the wake of the Current Account news? I wasn't exactly sure what to expect, so I sort of rode the wave. MP, your thoughts?
Music_Producer
Quote:
09-18-2006 07:02 PM
Originally Posted by honamos I'm not entirely sure what I did, but I seemed to have made $1.42 (Game). I bought 1000 EUR/USD at 1.26719 and then sold 1000 at 1.26861. I guess that's quite a few pips? This was in the wake of the Current Account news? I wasn't exactly sure what to expect, so I sort of rode the wave.
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MP, your thoughts?
Honamos.. you made 15 pips. 15*$0.10 = $1.5 or you made $1.42 so you made a little less than 15.. probably 14 pips and something. There are pips, and then there are pipettes (which are like fractional pips) So instead of quoting the eur as 1.26719 and 1.26861 you can simply display them as 1.2671 and 1.2686. In your Oanda preferences, simply untick 'display pipettes' This makes it easier to calculate pips.. 1.2686-1.2671 = 15. Had you bought 10,000 units.. that would be $14.20 prot, if you had bought 100,000 units.. you would have made $140.20 and so on. Remember, that Oanda 'stole' your 15 pips because of the spread. If they had kept their spread at 3 pips or 5 pips, you would have made 20 pips easily. I used to make 15-25 pips regularly when Oanda kept their spreads at a sane level. Tomorrow morning will be an important trade (if the news deviates) Its the Canadian CPI.. the core number is important. If it comes out higher than expected, the CAD $ will go up (or, the USD/CAD symbol will go down) and vice versa. Why does higher CPI push up the currency? Logically, ination is bad for the economy right? I mean, if the Canadian CPI comes out high, then it sucks because everything is more expensive in Canada. Then why does the Canadian $ go up? It has all to do with interest rates. A higher CPI means higher ination. which means that the nance ministry will want to curb that ination by *raising* interest rates. So the markets buy the CAD $ because they think "Ahh.. high CPI, thats increased ination.. so the cad $ interest rates have a better chance of being hiked"
Music_Producer
Super Trade!
1 Attachment(s)
09-19-2006 05:38 AM
*and* a solution to Oanda's insane spreads.. I traded the GBP/USD instead of the EUR/USD. Why? Because GBP/USD spreads were 9 pips, while that of EUR/USD was 15. Both move in a similar fashion though, during US news releases.. so I thought.. what the heck? Lets try it out. And it worked great! Bagged 19 beautiful pips :D The US PPI came out worse than expected, and Housing came out worse as well. Geez, when do we ever get good news regarding the US?? Both US Politics + Economy = Crap :p Attachment 57937
honamos
The big deal for tomorrow looks like the Interest Rate Statement. Any thoughts on that?
09-19-2006 07:16 AM
~Shard~
09-19-2006 07:37 AM
Nice trade Music_Producer! Do you mind me asking how many lots you usually trade with, or does it vary a great deal? I funded my CMC account today so I should be set up for trading tomorrow. Don't think I'll trade the economic news tomorrow, but at least I'll be back in the game again. ;) Since I'll have real money in the account I'll stick to what I know for now - stocks, commodities, etc. - and will probably still have a few "practice runs" with the forex trading before I put some money on the line. 1% margin is tempting, but in a
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dangerous way. :o ;) :cool:
Music_Producer
09-19-2006 05:13 PM
I didn't trade the US interest rate decision.. because its too early for me (..er.. i wake up at 2 pm PST :o ) However, if you guys followed the news and had traded the Thai Baht (I dont know which platform offers it) but damn.. obviously because of the coup in Thailand this would have been a massive trade.. as the Baht fell like a rock. I think it will continue to fall depending on the situation.
Music_Producer
09-19-2006 05:15 PM
Hey Shard, my lots usually vary.. depending on the kind of news. If its an interest rate announcement, I usually have anywhere from 5-8 million units, ready to be traded. Major news releases.. I employ about 500,000 units (usually) However, when Oanda went berserk with their spreads.. I narrowed it down to 50,000 units - just to be on the safe side.
honamos
New York Federal Reserve President Timothy Geithner will speak tonight Any thoughts?
09-25-2006 01:51 PM
~Shard~
09-25-2006 07:54 PM
Yikes, I've been a slacker lately when it comes to Forex. :o Too busy trading indices actually... TSX60, NASDAQ100, S&P500... Any thoughts on the rest of this week's announcements Music_Producer and what you're planning on trade?
Music_Producer
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09-27-2006 05:40 AM
Hey guys, sorry for the delay in posting.. was in San Diego with the wife.. had a great weekend. Traded the US durable orders report right now.. as usual, the US economy is showing more disappointing signs.. the Eur (and GBP) shot up by 20-30 pips. I managed to bag 7 pips in 2 seconds.. didn't want to risk anything.. traded a huge lot today though (2 million units) .. so you know what my prot was :) Attachment 58573 Honamos.. I never trade speeches.. they are too vague at times, and the market can move in any direction. I prefer to trade solid reports which have a tendency to move the currencies.. like today's report, GDP reports, NFP (non farm payroll) Interest rate decisions (if unexpected) , CPI, PPI, etc. At 10 am EST is the US Home Sales report.. but i wont be trading that, as i'm off to sleep.. and i think the report will be lower than forecast.. and the markets might be expecting that anyway.
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Music_Producer
10-02-2006 07:18 PM
I'm back! Was in San Diego.. had a great time.. anyway, not much happening in the forex world as all the reports were quite tepid.. today was exciting though. The GBP Manufacturing PMI came out better than expected and the pound rose 20-25 pips against the $, I got 8 pips. As I traded, I was keeping an eye on Oanda's spreads as well, and surprisingly.. they didn't widen the spread on GBP/USD. Now the more important.. and scary trade. The US ISM Manufacturing Index. This trade was a royal mess! I didn't even trade this report, but I traded *before* the report came out. Here's why.. I had all my windows open (news, quotes, etc.) and all of a sudden.. at 6am or around that time.. I saw the GBP jumping up steadily. I knew the pound was stronger because of the good GBP results (which came out at 1.30 am PST) but this was 6 am PST.. so why the hell was the pound jumping up like that? It jumped 10 pips, then 5,10,5,10.. and kept going up. So, I got excited :D . which by the way is a big mistake. I usually never trade seeing activity like this but i don't know.. felt like a schoolboy.. lol.. I got in and grabbed around 30 pips. I got out, and I thought.. ok this thing should slow down or drop. But it didnt. The pound just kept going up. Then the news platform came out with a "US $ drops against all majors on rumors of soft ISM" Crazy! I wonder who started the rumor that the ISM numbers would be low.. but it sure affected GBP/USD, EUR/USD and all the other currencies. The GBP rose by 100 pips before the actual ISM report came out! By then I was a little too nervous.. as the markets had already 'priced in' the soft ISM. I had a feeling that if the ISM numbers did come out low.. the pound shouldn't move up anyway because it had already gone up 100 pips.. kinda like it was out of steam. Anyway, the ISM did come out lower than expected at 7 am.. and the pound went up by 5 pips.. and then started falling (obviously) and went up and down.. a crazy trading range. I was amused just watching what was happening.. there was no way I was going to enter this trade. So, this is the rst time something like this has happened. There is always an explanation for price moves before a report.. I am sure no one leaked anything, but it was just common sense that the ISM reports would be low.. and someone made it sound like an 'ofcial' rumor.. or leak or whatever.
Music_Producer
1 Attachment(s)
10-03-2006 01:37 AM
6 pips on the UK Construction news reports.. man I should launch a hedge fund.. unlike the Amaranth LLC retards who invested most of their trades in oil (and lost somewhere around 6 billion) I think I'd be pretty successful! :D Attachment 59089
Music_Producer
32 pips on unexpected North Korean report
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10-03-2006 03:00 AM
So I was done trading for today, but I had all my windows open and was just browsing.. when my news server popped up with a "North Korea to conduct Nuclear Test" It took me a few seconds to register that and realize that it would be horrible for the Japanese Yen. So I quickly bought GBP/JPY (or USD/JPY .. wouldn't have mattered) and just as I expected, the GBP/JPY shot
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up by 45-50 pips. I nabbed 32 pips and got out. The GBP/JPY slowly came down (not all the way though) because this was just an announcement.. and not an actual test that North Korea had conducted. Had they conducted a live test, I would have stayed in the trade much longer and GBP/JPY would have easily crossed 200 pips or so. It was sheer luck that I had all my trading windows open (usually i close them when i'm done trading) News like this can result in massive prots.. but of course, you can't predict them.. but if you're alert, you can jump in and you get the best trades.. with minimum spreads. Attachment 59096
~Shard~
10-03-2006 08:40 PM
Thanks for the updates Music_Producer - you sure do have good luck when it comes to forex! Well, I shouldn't say "luck" exactly - you do obviously know what you're doing. ;) :) Amaranth are a bunch of idiots. If you ever want to open a hedge fund, just let me know. You can handle forex and I'll handle commodities, sectors and indicies... :D :cool:
Music_Producer
10-04-2006 10:33 PM
Hey Shard, of course I'll keep you in mind if I do launch a hedge fund :) We might just argue about what to name it though.. lol! There are two reports to watch out for tomorrow (Wednesday morning).. the UK interest rate decision and the EUR interest rate decision. Lets see what happens.
~Shard~
Quote:
10-05-2006 05:40 AM
Originally Posted by Music_Producer Hey Shard, of course I'll keep you in mind if I do launch a hedge fund :) We might just argue about what to name it though.. lol!
I think as long as we don't name it "Amaranth" we'll be okay... :eek: ;) :D How about "MPS Holdings"? (Music_Producer / Shard). I've had some excellent trades with oil, nat-gas and gold this past week, but this is not the place to be talking about that I suppose - we'll try and stick on topic with forex. :o ;)
Music_Producer
Quote:
10-05-2006 04:36 PM
Originally Posted by ~Shard~ I think as long as we don't name it "Amaranth" we'll be okay... :eek: ;) :D
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How about "MPS Holdings"? (Music_Producer / Shard). I've had some excellent trades with oil, nat-gas and gold this past week, but this is not the place to be talking about that I suppose - we'll try and stick on topic with forex. :o ;)
MPS Holdings sounds cool. How about Altivec Funds? :D :D or iHedge :p Any insight is appreciated Shard.. regarding oil, gold, metals, commodities.. etc. This is not just forex.. but trading in general. :) I guess I'm good at forex..but when it comes to stocks and other trades.. I suck.. big time. I don't know how in the world you trade gas and metals.. is it just based on technicals? Made three excellent trades today.. rst was the UK interest rate decision. It was forecast that the Bank of England wouldn't raise interest rates.. but the markets had a slight expecation that maybe the interest rates would be hiked. So when the London session opened.. the GBP/USD went up.. about 50-60 pips.. and then stayed there. So I had 3 options 1. If the BOE (bank of england) hiked rates.. I would hit 'buy' immediately 2. If they kept rates the same, I would hit 'sell' because the pound had already risen so many pips 3. If they reduced the rates (not a chance, but still) I would have hit 'sell' with all my money.. because the pound would have dropped 200-250 pips for sure. The BOE announced that they didn't change the rates, so I sold the GBP/USD.. and sure enough, it fell by 30 pips. I grabbed 15 pips Next trade was the EUR interest rate announcement. The ECB was expected to raise interest rates today.. but they didn't.. so I sold the EUR/USD. However, the reaction wasn't that great.. it dropped by only 10 pips or so.. and then hovered around there. So I got my prot of 10 pips and exited the trade. Eventually it did go lower. The last trade was the US unemployment claims. It was expected at 315 k.. it came in at 307 k or something .. so it was much lower than expected.. and hence, I sold the EUR/USD. It went down gradually, and I got about 15 pips. So totally I made 40 pips for the day. :) Possible trades tomorrow are the Candian Employment Change and the US Nonfarm employment change.
~Shard~
Quote:
10-05-2006 08:29 PM
Originally Posted by Music_Producer MPS Holdings sounds cool. How about Altivec Funds? :D :D or iHedge :p
Oooh, I like Altivec Funds.... ;) :D

Quote:
Originally Posted by Music_Producer
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Any insight is appreciated Shard.. regarding oil, gold, metals, commodities.. etc. This is not just forex.. but trading in general.
Fair enough. Every once and a while I'll try to some of my strategies and insights into other forms of trading as well then - I am by no means trying to hoard my knowledge. ;) Especially after how open and helpful you have been wrt forex. :)
Quote:
Originally Posted by Music_Producer I guess I'm good at forex..but when it comes to stocks and other trades.. I suck.. big time. I don't know how in the world you trade gas and metals.. is it just based on technicals?
Technicals? Somewhat, yeah. If I see a really big swing, I'll jump on it for a short term trade, but I denitely don't like trading purely on technicals. That being said, I am an excellent chart analyst, FWIW, so I can at detect buy/sell signals based on MACD, RSI, stochastics, etc. If big news happens, yeah, that can throw technicals out the window, but as with anything else, they have their place. One method I really focus on is seasonality. If you do the research, you'll nd that during certain times of the year, certain sectors perform exceptionally well. And in some cases, 10 out of the last 10 years, certain sectors have seen an average gain of 10% (as an example) during that period. The past is no indicator of future behavior of course, but again, it works many times, and I take advantage of it. In general, I'll trade individual stocks, sectors, indicies, spot metal prices and monthly contracts on commodities. I used to trade options (puts/calls) but got out of that after I started getting careless. As I said, I'll try and type up some more information for you in the future. And, if I can screen capture at the time or something, I can even post some trades. If nothing else, I could post some charts of interest... Great trades today by the way! :)
Quote:
Originally Posted by Music_Producer Possible trades tomorrow are the Candian Employment Change and the US Nonfarm employment change.
Yeah, I'll be watching the CAD employment change myself. I don't know if I'll be able to trade it or not, but I'd like to. :o (If there's something to trade in the rst place, of course.... ;))

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Music_Producer
Almost wet my pants!!
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10-06-2006 06:07 AM
The NonFarm Report came out WAY worse than expected.. 50 k instead of 120 k. So I jumped and bought GBP/USD .. and I made 40 pips :D One second after I closed the trade and the bloody GBP dropped.. dropped by 80 pips :eek: :eek: The GBP is still dropping by another 40-60 pips against the USD. Man these US Bulls are retards.. they love buying the $ no matter how crappy the news is.. and thats just what happened today. I was really quick today.. got in *before* the spike..and got out promptly. I shudder to think what would have happened if I had stayed in the trade a little longer. Phew!!! Attachment 59360
~Shard~
Quote:
10-06-2006 07:53 AM
Originally Posted by Music_Producer The NonFarm Report came out WAY worse than expected.. 50 k instead of 120 k. So I jumped and bought GBP/USD .. and I made 40 pips :D One second after I closed the trade and the bloody GBP dropped.. dropped by 80 pips :eek: :eek: The GBP is still dropping by another 40-60 pips against the USD. Man these US Bulls are retards.. they love buying the $ no matter how crappy the news is.. and thats just what happened today. I was really quick today.. got in *before* the spike..and got out promptly. I shudder to think what would have happened if I had stayed in the trade a little longer. Phew!!!
As always, timing is crucial! :eek: And, you just never know how the markets will react - as you say, bad news, yet people buy USD. Ah well, if we all knew exactly how the markets worked, we'd all be multimillionaires... ;)
njmac
10-06-2006 06:11 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Music_Producer ... man I should launch a hedge fund.. unlike the Amaranth LLC retards who invested most of their trades in oil (and lost somewhere around 6 billion) I think I'd be pretty successful! :D
yes, yes you should ;) I am going to try and gets some trades in for October. I wish I had enough money to make $100 + a pip... the most I can make for now is $2 pip but its cool because its just a few minutes of "work" :cool:
Hoef
Quote:
10-06-2006 06:39 PM
Originally Posted by njmac man I should launch a hedge fund.. unlike the Amaranth LLC retards who invested most of their trades in oil (and lost somewhere around 6 billion) I think I'd be pretty successful!
Quote:
Originally Posted by njmac yes, yes you should ;)
We could actually start a "distributed" hedge fund ... get couple of folks in various times zones and pool some money. It would be relatively easy to get more money in and we'd be charging a 2% fee :)
Music_Producer
1 Attachment(s)
10-13-2006 05:40 AM
Hoef, forget the 2% fee.. more like 50% of prots ;) :D Today's trade was great.. made 13 pips on GBP/USD.. US retail sales came out weaker than expected. I also quite expected that the GBP would jump up.. and then sink against the US$. For some reason, everytime there's bad news for the US economy.. the dollar loses ground against other currencies..for a very short time. In a few seconds, the dollar jumps back up crushing any initial spike. That's exactly what happened during the US trade balance announcement.. and it's happening right now. Which is why, get your prots and exit the trade asap. I am quite tempted to 'fade the spike' i.e. sell at what you think is the top of the spike. It's risky though, so I wouldn't attempt it, but one of these days I know the fool in me is going to take over and try it out.. just for kicks. I'll trade a very tiny lot so as to minimize any losses. Attachment 59784
smunderdog
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10-16-2006 09:50 AM
1/15/08 8:18 PM
Ran across this thread a few weeks ago after doing a search on Google for FOREX trading. This thread came up on about the 3rd or 4th page...have enjoyed reading it and learned quite a bit along the way! Have to admit that I'm a total newbie to on line trading, but just got tired of that infomercial for the FOREX software that is on all weekend and nally decided to see what FOREX was all about. Don't see myself "buying into" the hype of the informercial, but the way you are all playing the game seems to appeal to me... I've opened a practice account on Oanda and have only played around long enough to understand how to put an order in...haven't practiced on any actual news reports yet. One question - is there an easy way to see what the spread is? I understand that the width of the line on the graph represents the spread, but is there somewhere numerically that shows it? Also - I've noticed the thread isn't as active as it was...has everyone migrated over to the mac user group that was mentioned a few pages back? What is the concensus now about the Oanda spread increase...since I'm not tied to any platform at this early stage in my learning curve, what other platforms should I try out?
~Shard~
Quote:
10-16-2006 12:53 PM
Originally Posted by smunderdog Also - I've noticed the thread isn't as active as it was...has everyone migrated over to the mac user group that was mentioned a few pages back?
I can't speak about the Mac user group, as I haven't joined up myself, but I am still an active viewer if nothing else in this thread. I used to post more as well, but I've been so busy lately that my trading has taken a back seat. Hopefully that will change in a month or so. Regardless, glad you found the thread educational. :cool:
savar
Quote:
10-16-2006 01:33 PM
Originally Posted by smunderdog Also - I've noticed the thread isn't as active as it was...has everyone migrated over to the mac user group that was mentioned a few pages back?
I'm still lurking. I haven't seen any news to trade on recently that wasn't while I was at work. (Bernanke today, e.g.) What user group are you referring to? Also, anybody played around with MT4? I was interested in coding a trading strategy platform, but then I found MT4. Looks pretty cool as a way to model trading strategies and then backtest. Any experience with it? The documentation isn't great and I have yet to dig in and do any real development with it.
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Music_Producer
10-17-2006 01:40 AM
Originally Posted by smunderdog I've opened a practice account on Oanda and have only played around long enough to understand how to put an order in...haven't practiced on any actual news reports yet. One question - is there an easy way to see what the spread is? I understand that the width of the line on the graph represents the spread, but is there somewhere numerically that shows it? Also - I've noticed the thread isn't as active as it was...has everyone migrated over to the mac user group that was mentioned a few pages back? What is the concensus now about the Oanda spread increase...since I'm not tied to any platform at this early stage in my learning curve, what other platforms should I try out?
Hey smunder.. this thread gets active when I post :p When there are no trades.. I usually don't post. Today was good (the GBP CPI numbers) and I traded the GBP/USD multiple times in a few seconds/minutes for a total of about 12 pips. I got most of my prot on the second spike. Attachment 60036 You can see the spread in Oanda.. you see where the quote section is? Where you see the 1.2456/1.2459 kinda thing for currencies.. there's a little arrow on the top.. when you click on that, it 'expands' the window so you can see the spread. Actually, let me show it to you graphically - oops.. i can't do that here.. so i am going to do it in the next 2 posts (i cant post more than one picture at a time in a post it seems)
Music_Producer
Normal view
2 Attachment(s)
10-17-2006 01:41 AM
Here's the normal view of the quote panel Attachment 60037 Edit : Never mind, both pictures show up. The second one is where you can see the spread. All I did was click on that arrow on the top (before F) You see 2.8 is the spread for GBP/USD.. 1.5 for EUR/USd etc.
Music_Producer
10-17-2006 01:58 AM
For the rest of your question.. yes, Oanda has crappy spreads during news trading.. but it's still (in my opinion) very good for trading.. because they execute when you click 'buy' or 'sell' I have had quite a few experiences with MB trading, etc.. where I click 'buy' and the bloody thing doesn't execute till a few seconds.. by that time.. the price starts dropping.. and then it executes. Then when i hit sell because i don't want a loss.. it takes a few seconds to execute.. that pissed me off. So much for all the advertising they do and the promises of instant trading. So if Oanda jacks up the spread between EUR/USD to 15 pips, and you get in at the spike (or before) and
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the EUR moves up 30-40 pips.. you can still make a lot of prot. If it moves up only 15 pips and then back down.. you'll make a loss. Lately Oanda has been keeping their spreads reasonable though, like today the GBP/USD spread was 2.8 instead of 15. I was a little surprised.. maybe they have had a lot of members leave, so they have decided to play nice. Who knows? During unexpected interest rate decisions.. currencies can move by 80-100 pips.. so a 15 pip spread is nothing compared to the prot you can make. Having said that, I still have to nd a broker who gives me instant executions combined with low spreads. I don't mind paying a commission per trade. Please stay away from FXCM. They are the worst. They will freeze your trades during news time.. it's just ridiculous. Or, they will accept your trade, and not release it for a few minutes. So you could end up making tons of prot or losses. The 400:1 margin ration is also dangerous. A lot of newbies have come to this thread and asked me if I could manage their money or start a 'forex service' where I give a 'buy' or 'sell signal'..or sell them forex trading info. Please don't ask me to do that.. I will not manage anyone's money. I don't have the balls to trade using someone's funds :eek: Also, all my info is right here on the threads.. I don't have any 'secret formula' for the trades that I carry out. You simply have to practice, be quick (quick at trading and analyzing the news) I couldn't even possibly launch a site where I give real time signals. For one, latency is a big factor. I can't buy or sell my own trades and type 'buy' or 'sell' on the site in a chat window.. trades are to be executed in seconds (more like half a second) so that won't work. I have been thinking of launching a site where I can hold a conference call of some sorts.. skype maybe? I just say 'buy' or 'sell' and accordingly people trade. It would be entirely free of course, but i have no idea how i can manage that!
Music_Producer
1 Attachment(s)
10-17-2006 05:35 AM
Another trade.. @ 8.30 am EST.. made only 7 pips, but traded huge lots.. so it was all good. Very choppy market.. GBP went down, and then back up a second after i got out. Attachment 60041
Music_Producer
1 Attachment(s)
10-17-2006 06:05 AM
5 pips this time, I was a little slow in closing the trade..the US trade balance report @6.00 am EST Attachment 60044
smunderdog
1 Attachment(s)
10-17-2006 09:18 AM
Thanks for pointing out where I can more easily see the spreads... Missed testing a few opportunties this morning, but want to use them as learning experiences. I've been watching the calendar on www.forexfactory.com and they "rate" each data release as having the potential of high, average or low impact. It logically seems to make sense to focus on high impact releases, right? For instance: 9 AM Canadian interest rate decision. Predicted to stay at 4.25 and it did. Based on what has been discussed on this thread, we would predict the CAD to weaken - and it did.
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Attached a screenshot of this - how do I place the image directly in a post so we can see it like MP does?
smunderdog
Another question -
10-17-2006 09:27 AM
Do you stay away from timeframes where more than one data release is going to take place? For instance: At 8:30 AM there was a US PPI and US Core PPI announcement and they seemed to go in opposite directions. US PPI - forecast was .7%, came out at -1.3%. We would expect the dollar to weaken. US Core PPI - forecast was .2%, came out at .6%. We might expect the dollar to appreciate in value. So when these two reports (or any two reports for that matter), come out at the same time, do we typically want to stay away from trading on it?
Music_Producer
10-17-2006 02:31 PM
Smunder.. yep, it makes more sense to focus on the important releases. but I have seen some reports which .. deviated a lot.. and thus produced a lot of uctuation in currencies. However, generally I stick to the major reports. When there are two or more reports.. like the PPI one.. you have to concentrate on the most important one.. in this case, it was the Core PPI. You also have to watch out for revisions.. if they revise the previous month's report by a big number.. you will see the trade quickly go the opposite way. That's what happened with the US non farm roll and everybody got screwed.. because the USD dropped by 40 pips in one second, and then the next second.. it shot up by 40 pips and gained a lot more. All this, because of a revision (a huge one) Currencies move based on their interest rates. No one wants to put their money in a country where they don't earn any return on their money (e.g. Japan) So you will see the Yen always lower compared to the USD, GBP, etc. If the US starts reducing rates, the USD will start dropping. It has nothing to do with the state of a country's economy.. how else would you explain the strength of the US dollar? Warren Buffet has been 'short' on the US$ since more than a year.. but he's been proved wrong (either that or he was just lying!) The USD offers high interest rates, so its still strong. I have a feeling that there is a lot of political pressure by the govts (and OPEC) to keep the Japanese Yen's interest rates very, very low. So these guys can all borrow the Japanese Yen, put it in their banks and earn interest. :rolleyes:
~Shard~
Well, I nally got around to making a trade again! :eek: ;) :D
10-18-2006 08:44 AM
I know this morning didn't provide the ideal trading conditions, due to the multiple announcements, but I gave it a go anyway and ended up with positive results. I basically used today as a test on my CMC Markets account. From my practice trades and so forth I conrmed that they never change their spreads, but I still had concerns over their execution speed. Well, my doubts were squashed today I traded the US CPI and housing news this morning and traded EUR/USD the spread remained at 2 pips and my order was executed instantly at the exact price I wanted! Due to what
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happened this morning (anyone watching the charts knows what I mean!) I only made 6 pips, but hey, better than nothing! I didn!t want to take too much risk being it was my rst real forex trade on this platform and as I said, I was unsure about order execution speed. As a result, I also used a smaller lot size next time it will be bigger. :cool: So yeah, it was a bit risky, since the different reports went in different directions, so to speak, but I still managed to capitalize on it. And I am very impressed with the CMC platform so far. It!s been great for me for all my CFD share, commodity and index trading, and now I can add forex to the list. Unless this rst time was a uke. :o ;) And although it only runs on Windows, it actually worked out quite well for me. CMC's charts don!t update every 5 seconds like Oanda, nor does their news ticker report as fast as others, so basically, on my Mac I have Oanda and my news service going, and then on my PC, I have CMC going. Pretty sweet actually. :cool: Anywho, I don!t have any screenshots, as CMC doesn!t work that way about all I could post pictures of would be shots of my respective buy and sell orders, but I somehow doubt that would be too riveting to see. ;) :D Did you trade at all this morning Music_Producer?
Music_Producer
1 Attachment(s)
10-18-2006 06:48 PM
hey Shard, that's terric! If CMC keeps giving you instant executions.. let us know.. I'll switch for sure. I did trade this morning but didn't post here, because I was so sleepy, just went off to bed right after. Last 2 days have been crazy trades.. but there's one thing I've noticed for the American session.. if the USD is strong, or there is USD+ve news.. the GBP/EUR will keep dropping for half an hour to one hour. There will be spikes in the middle, but the general direction stays the same. I made about 18 pips total.. but it was not in one trade. I traded multiple times.. as soon as GBP would spike.. I would sell.. and then buy as it went down. I kept doing that till I nally thought.. 'ok, that's enough for the day' :p Attachment 60152 Oh, and my MacBook apparently has the shutdown problem. :mad: It was a good thing it started acting up after I was done with my trades. It seems to shutdown on its own when the power adapter is not plugged in. I don't want to send it for service yet, but ugh.. it wasn't giving me any trouble till now. I'll be trading the GBP retail sales next, if it deviates quite a bit.
~Shard~
Quote:
10-18-2006 08:50 PM
Originally Posted by Music_Producer hey Shard, that's terric! If CMC keeps giving you instant executions.. let us know.. I'll switch for sure.
Will do! I want to execute several more trades though before I'm convinced. ;) And even then, as I said, I
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wouldn't recommend switching solely to the CMC platform. It is excellent in many ways, however as I indicated, their charts do not update every 5 seconds (5 minutes is the smallest interval which is useless for news traders!) and their news service doesn't appear to be the best. I used Oanda to help with my trade this morning and I wouldn't have had the same results if I had only used CMC.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Music_Producer there's one thing I've noticed for the American session.. if the USD is strong, or there is USD+ve news.. the GBP/EUR will keep dropping for half an hour to one hour. There will be spikes in the middle, but the general direction stays the same.
Good to know, thanks for the head's up - I'll keep an eye on it the next time some +ve USD news is released. :cool:
Quote:
Originally Posted by Music_Producer I'll be trading the GBP retail sales next, if it deviates quite a bit.
I'd like to watch it too however that announcement comes out at about 2:30 AM for me (09:30 GMT, correct?) - past my bedtime on a weekday. ;) :)
Music_Producer
1 Attachment(s)
10-19-2006 01:42 AM
Attachment 60170 Shard, sometimes it's worth it to stay up for these GBP reports ;) The retail sales came out weaker than expected and their budget had the biggest decit of all times.. so it was a double whammy.. Made 20 pips on the rst spike, and around 6-8 on the 2nd.. the GBP is still dropping.. but I'm done for tonight. I would expect the GBP to continue its downward trend till the American session. There's nothing much going on in the US markets this morning.. but whatever little news could affect the GBP/USD movement.
~Shard~
10-19-2006 05:28 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Music_Producer Shard, sometimes it's worth it to stay up for these GBP reports ;) The retail sales came out weaker than expected and their budget had the biggest decit of all times.. so it was a double whammy.. Made 20 pips on the rst spike, and around 6-8 on the 2nd.. the GBP is still dropping.. but I'm done for tonight. I would expect the GBP to continue its downward trend till the American session. There's nothing much going on in the US markets this morning.. but whatever little news could affect the GBP/USD movement.
Nice trade Music_Producer! Yeah, I can see what you mean. In the future I might just have to set the alarm clock and give it a try! Although I'm not sure if my wife would like that too much... ;) Meh, I'll just tell her I'll be making money as a result, that should make her feel better... :D What's the next big announcement you've got on your radar screen? CAD CPI tomorrow? The FOMC meeting next Wedneaday?
smunderdog
10-19-2006 06:23 AM
Yeah, yesteday's announcements were a mess and I would have stayed out since I'm still feeling my way through. This morning's GBP retail sales report was much more clear cut though and I would have probably given it a go if I would have been awake. Of course, I'm still practicing in my game account on Oanda...:) Problem is, when I logged on this morning and pulled up the Oanda Fx News reports, I don't see where they announced the results of the GBP retail sales report at 4:30 EST. There is a report that the pound is down due to the retail sales coming out lower at 5:09 EST, but of course that doesn't help. :confused: Since I don't plan on subscribing to a news service initially and there have been favorable reviews of the Oanda news being "quick enough" I had planned on using it for now. What happened on this one? Am also curious as to which reports I should key into next...
Music_Producer
1 Attachment(s)
10-20-2006 01:44 AM
Shard, just tell your wife you're making some more money so she can go shopping.. she'll be more than happy to stay awake and make you sandwiches at 2 am while you trade :p GBP trade was quite tepid.. the GDP came out robust.. at 2.8% way better than expected.. but the pound went up by only 15 pips. I grabbed about 8.. which was good considering the lame spike. I'm thinking that the move was limited because the GBP had already risen pre-release..so it was priced in. Never mind, I just checked the levels and yes, the pound is still rising.. so far a 30 pip rise from the report level. Still, with this kind of news, it should have gone up by 50-70 pips. Of course, there must be a lot of banks selling the pound at the 1.88 level (resistance) Attachment 60252
Music_Producer
1 Attachment(s)
10-20-2006 01:55 AM
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Just an update.. pound continues to rise.. Shard.. this is a classic example of how the currency trend continues its course.. if the news is positive. This also represents a very good chance to make healthy prots, especially because the spreads fall back to minimal levels. Attachment 60253
Music_Producer
1 Attachment(s)
10-20-2006 04:06 AM
Traded the Canadian CPI.. both numbers conicted each other, but the core cpi is more important.. so canadian $ went up against the USD by 8-10 pips.. I grabbed 5. Had both numbers come out higher, obviously CAD $ would have responded more strongly. time for me to get some good sleep now.. see you all later in the day :) Attachment 60254
Hoef
10-20-2006 08:38 PM
Hi guys, been quite from my front but back and ready for action! My MB suffers from sudden shutdown too :mad: , all after installing 10.4.8, even though most people say it has nothing to do with it. Going to trade live from this moment on
~Shard~
Good luck to you Hoef - keep us posted on how it goes! :)
10-20-2006 09:35 PM
Music_Producer
10-21-2006 02:34 AM
Yup Hoef.. my shutdowns began after I updated the OS to 10.4.8.. but then again, if people with 10.4.7 have the same problem.. it would have to be a hardware issue. What's annoying is that after all the ipod crap that Apple are so obsessed with, the hardware products seem to have taken a backseat. I understand that sometimes you could land up with a defective product, but *everyone* I know.. in studios, recording, trading, etc.. who has a macbook.. has this problem. I've been borrowing my wife's Averatec laptop recently for work .. it sounds like an airplane about to take off.. but it doesn't shut down abruptly. Anyway, I'm going to try and format my hard drive, and reinstall OS X.. hmm.. sounds like something I used to do on my pentium 2 desktop.. a very long time ago :mad:
~Shard~
10-23-2006 08:59 PM
So which announcements are you focusing on this week Music_Producer? AUD CPI tomorrow evening? FOMC? (I doubt anything will come out of that...) Lots of USD news on Thursday, perhaps too much to trade condently due to conicting results? How about the JPY announcements Thurs evening? Just curious what looks good to you this week. :) :cool:
~Shard~
10-24-2006 06:59 PM
Well, I traded the AUD CPI results about half an hour ago. Consensus was +0.9% and that's exactly what it
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came out at, however since I was all geared up to trade and was using a smaller lot size, I gured what the heck... ;) So, I made 4 pips on the AUD/USD - not too shabby. I was using this as a bit of an experiment as well to see how the AUD/USD moved versus the AUD/JPY. Looks like the AUD/JPY moved more, but meh, it's all good. :cool: Music_Producer, I know it's been discussed before here, but what do you think about doing a carry trade on AUD/JPY? Not quite as attractive as it used to be due to Japan raising the interest rate from 0%, but still a nice differential. I thought if I did a smaller lot size (i.e. so I could cover a price swing) but still brig in a few bucks a month there would be nothing wrong with that. Thoughts?
Music_Producer
10-25-2006 03:30 AM
Shard, I don't think I'll be awake to trade the FOMC report.. but I suggest that you stay alert with those 'buy/sell' windows open. It's expected that they won't change the rates, but if they do.. trade accordingly. AUD/JPY is perfect for carry trading.. in fact, I got in about 4-5 months ago when AUD/JPY was 83.00. I was making interest daily, and I sold it off after a week at 83.75. I was a little too nervous.. because you never know when the pair can tank. Anyway, the bloody pair is now at 90.50 or so. I could have made 700+ pips prot.. *plus* made all that interest. :mad: Like I said though, it could have easily gone down by 700 pips as well. What I suggest is using Oanda's margin call calculator. If you have $50,000 (to throw away.. lol) just invest $5000 of that in AUD/JPY. a 50:1 margin will let you buy $250,000 of AUD/JPY.. so using oanda's calculator.. i get $28 interest per day..or $840 per month. This is compounding interest as well.. so it will add up a little more. Now using the margin call calculator.. you will not get a margin call till AUD/JPY hits 67.39 (if you buy it now at 90.55) That's quite .. in fact, very far from the level it is at right now. Let's say it takes 2 years to hit 70.. by that time you've made $40320 in interest (more.. with the compounding) and that adds to your balance. So you won't get a margin call at 67.39.. probably much lower like at 45 or so. What if it tanks to 70 in 6 months? :eek: Then you've barely made $5000 in interest, and you risk losing all your $50,000 on that trade. So I'm a little scared to enter any carry trade right now.. they all look like they're at the edge of a cliff.. ready to fall. *But* the damn AUD/JPY pair keeps going up. I am pretty sure .. like i explained somewhere.. that all the banks are into this trade.. so it's not like they are all going to dump the AUD and buy the JPY rightaway. JPY is very sensitive to oil prices and all the war crap with NK.. so I don't see JPY gaining strength anytime soon. Forget AUD/JPY.. you know what the best pair to carry trade is? The GBP/JPY.. can't gure out why.. but it gives you close to 8% :eek: . If you put $250,000 in GBP/JPY you get $55/day or $1650 per month. Look at the GBP/JPY chart. It's gone up all this year from 200.. right now its at 223 or something.. that's more than 2000 pips. But to buy GBP/JPY you need to pput in more money.. i.e. $250,000 will buy you x units of AUD/JPY.. but it will buy you less than x units of GBP/JPY. Use the calculators. Let's say I am a multi-millionaire and I put $100,000 in my forex account. I only use $20,000 of that to buy 532932 GBP/JPY. That's $3540 per month in interest. You'll get a margin call if GBP/JPY hits 203.20. Now you see the chart.. and it was at 200 or 203 not too long ago. Let's say I have $1 million USD in my balance, and I buy 1 million GBP/JPY. I would be making $6660 per month in interest.. and my margin call would hit me when GBP/JPY hit 103. Now it's not going to hit 103.. no chance.. atleast not for a couple of years. Would only happen if the Japanese went crazy on some crack sushi and hiked the interest rate to 6% overnight.. lol. So use the appropriate amount and allow a lot of room for any dips (major ones as well) to accomodate for
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any margin calls. Very tempting.. I know.. but use caution.
Music_Producer
10-25-2006 03:34 AM
Oops.. to answer the other part of your question.. I'll be trading the US news on thursday.. the durable goods orders report (core being more important) I was thinking of trading existing home sales today but i think it won't affect the market much.. because everyone's going to be waiting for the FOMC. JPY CPI and stuff.. nah.. it doesn't move much for some reason. I nd that the EUr/USD, GBP/USD and USD/CAD move the most on releases such as ppi, cpi, and other stuff. Man i'm telling you.. JPY probably doesn't move because everyone's using it to carry trade :p
~Shard~
Quote:
10-25-2006 07:54 AM
Originally Posted by Music_Producer Shard, I don't think I'll be awake to trade the FOMC report.. but I suggest that you stay alert with those 'buy/sell' windows open. It's expected that they won't change the rates, but if they do.. trade accordingly.
Unfortunately I!ll be at work myself, but I!ll keep an eye on it for sure no trading for me today though. :( Unless I play hookie... :D ;) Actually, my wife will be buying a new MacBook when they go C2D so perhaps I!ll be able to borrow it, bring it to work and use it to trade during the day when necessary. My desktop here at work is locked down by our IT group so there!s no way I could load my CMC application on it... :( Oh, and there is one slight limitation of the CMC platform if you!re wanting to execute those split-second trades, it!s a little tricky. Basically, you cannot have 2 trade windows open for the same currency pair simultaneously. Now, the trade window itself has a big BUY button and a SELL button, so it!s easy to react to the news, whichever way it goes, however to close out that order you then need to click on the currency pair again, then close the trade. It actually doesn!t take that long, but if you!re essentially wanting to click BUY and SELL within a 2 second period let!s say, you might be hard pressed to do it unless you are very dexterous. ;) And their charts do not update on 5 second intervals like Oanda, nor is their news service as fast. So, as I said in a previous post, I just have Oanda open on my Mac for those needs, and CMC running on my PC a great combination!
Quote:
Originally Posted by Music_Producer AUD/JPY is perfect for carry trading.. in fact, I got in about 4-5 months ago when AUD/JPY was 83.00. I was making interest daily, and I sold it off after a week at 83.75. I was a little too nervous.. because you never know when the pair can tank.
Yeah, you always have to remember that you!re leveraged to the gills when dealing in forex and can easily get wiped out if you!re not careful.
Quote:
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Originally Posted by Music_Producer Anyway, the bloody pair is now at 90.50 or so. I could have made 700+ pips prot.. *plus* made all that interest. Like I said though, it could have easily gone down by 700 pips as well.
Yeah, exactly hindsight is 20/20, and as you say, it could easily have gone the other way... :o
Quote:
Originally Posted by Music_Producer What I suggest is using Oanda's margin call calculator. If you have $50,000 (to throw away.. lol) just invest $5000 of that in AUD/JPY. a 50:1 margin will let you buy $250,000 of AUD/JPY.. so using oanda's calculator.. i get $28 interest per day..or $840 per month. This is compounding interest as well.. so it will add up a little more. Now using the margin call calculator.. you will not get a margin call till AUD/JPY hits 67.39 (if you buy it now at 90.55) That's quite .. in fact, very far from the level it is at right now. Let's say it takes 2 years to hit 70.. by that time you've made $40320 in interest (more.. with the compounding) and that adds to your balance. So you won't get a margin call at 67.39.. probably much lower like at 45 or so.
Cool, thanks for the tip I!ll check out the margin call calculator and do some number-crunching. My margin for commodities, indices and forex on CMC is a xed 1% (100:1) so I have to be especially cautious.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Music_Producer What if it tanks to 70 in 6 months? Then you've barely made $5000 in interest, and you risk losing all your $50,000 on that trade. So I'm a little scared to enter any carry trade right now.. they all look like they're at the edge of a cliff.. ready to fall.
Funny you should say that I put on my Technical Analysis hat last night while doing the AUD trade and noticed the same thing. From a purely technical perspective (which of course only gives you only part of the picture) there are quite a few indicators pointing towards a correction in the AUD/JPY pair - the RSI (Relative Strength Index) is high (indicating overbought levels on the AUD) for instance, so I was thinking along the same lines. I!ll be keeping an eye on it...
Quote:
Originally Posted by Music_Producer Forget AUD/JPY.. you know what the best pair to carry trade is? The GBP/JPY.. can't gure out why.. but it gives you close to 8%. If you put $250,000 in GBP/JPY you get $55/day or $1650 per month.
Really? I thought the UK!s interest rate was lower than Australia!s... Hmm, interesting. Well, I might have to start watching that currency pair as well...
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Originally Posted by Music_Producer Let's say I am a multi-millionaire and I put $100,000 in my forex account. I only use $20,000 of that to buy 532932 GBP/JPY. That's $3540 per month in interest. You'll get a margin call if GBP/JPY hits 203.20. Now you see the chart.. and it was at 200 or 203 not too long ago. Let's say I have $1 million USD in my balance, and I buy 1 million GBP/JPY. I would be making $6660 per month in interest.. and my margin call would hit me when GBP/JPY hit 103. Now it's not going to hit 103.. no chance.. atleast not for a couple of years. Would only happen if the Japanese went crazy on some crack sushi and hiked the interest rate to 6% overnight.. lol.
Great examples, thanks. :)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Music_Producer Oops.. to answer the other part of your question.. I'll be trading the US news on thursday.. the durable goods orders report (core being more important) I was thinking of trading existing home sales today but i think it won't affect the market much.. because everyone's going to be waiting for the FOMC.
Makes sense we!ll see if that is indeed the case.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Music_Producer JPY CPI and stuff.. nah.. it doesn't move much for some reason. I nd that the EUr/USD, GBP/USD and USD/CAD move the most on releases such as ppi, cpi, and other stuff. Man i'm telling you.. JPY probably doesn't move because everyone's using it to carry trade :p
Haha, fair enough. I was just thinking about those specic announcements since they!re not going to be announced at some god awful time like 3 AM. ;) A trade at 5:30 PM my time (or whenever the exact time is) is much easier for me to carry out. :) Thanks again...
jwilkinson317
anyone trading 2:15 intrest rate anouncement
10-25-2006 11:01 AM
I am new to post here, but have been reading the forum for the past few months. I have some free time during the day now and am trying to jump into this forex stuff. Since i opened my demo acct up a few months back, i am up about 15K, but would like to see alot more consistent success. I am learning about fundamental analysis currently, so is anyone else trading the 2:15 announcement? if so what pair would be best to trade?
~Shard~
10-25-2006 05:58 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jwilkinson317 I am new to post here, but have been reading the forum for the past few months. I have some free time during the day now and am trying to jump into this forex stuff.
Welcome to our little Forex Club! ;) I hope our discussions so far have been benecial for you. :)
Quote:
Originally Posted by jwilkinson317 Since i opened my demo acct up a few months back, i am up about 15K, but would like to see alot more consistent success.
No offense, but have you honestly been treating your demo account as real money? Honestly? If so, that's excellent, but as has been mentioned many times in this thread, people who are a bit more lax when it comes to game accounts tend to get burned when it comes to real money, so please keep that in mind. Just friendly advice, that's all, I just don't want to see you end up in a world of hurt. :) And if you are being very cautious, doing your research, and not just blindly trading pairs for fun ;) then again, that's excellent. Just ask yourself before your pretend trades, "Would I be executing this trade so freely if this was my real money?" :cool:
Quote:
Originally Posted by jwilkinson317 I am learning about fundamental analysis currently, so is anyone else trading the 2:15 announcement? if so what pair would be best to trade?
The best pair to trade when it comes to the USD is the EUR/USD pair for the most part, although not always. Depending on the platform you use, the spreads are usually fairly tight on that pair, and it moves a fair bit when there is news. Any other questions, just post them here!
~Shard~
10-25-2006 06:14 PM
So Music_Producer, any thoughts on how the Durable Goods report will swing tomorrow? I'll be up and ready to trade if the opportunity is there... :cool:
Music_Producer
Hey jwilikson..welcome to our little thread! :)
10-26-2006 02:08 AM
Everything Shard stated.. is exactly what I would have said. Dealing with demo accounts is very different than dealing with real money. You get a little anxious even when you see a loss as little as 32 cents.. and then it goes to 42 cents.. and then you can't wait anymore and just close your position. When you know its 'fake' money.. you have the luxury of holding on to your position for as long as you want..
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till the currency level comes back up again and you exit with a prot. The stress factor when trading live is huge.. of course with experience you get used to it, but it never gets to the point that it's boring (atleast not for me) Shard, I have no clue what today's report will be like.. forecast is 1.0% .. maybe will be more..because of slumping gas prices. The EUR/USD has been rising since the last 2 days.. so if the report does come out positive (and hopefully a solid deviation) then the EUR will probably drop 80 pips or so.. simply because of the recent momentum. My logic tells me the report will be good.. but that damn gut feeling again.. 1% of me says it will be a bad report. Lol.. so much for my thoughts :rolleyes: Whatever direction the currencies go.. we'll be ready..hehe.. good luck! PS - since the euro's risen so much anyway.. if the durable goods report does come out negative.. I would expect a spike (upwards) in the EUR/USD.. but for a very short time. It would reverse pretty quickly.. atleast that's what I have observed when a currency has already moved by quite a few pips since a couple of days.
Music_Producer
1 Attachment(s)
10-26-2006 06:01 AM
Well, like I said.. since it was a bad report (Core Durable goods came out at 0.1% compared to 1.0%) the GBP/USD spiked up.. but for a very short time (because gbp/usd had already gone up quite a bit since the last 2 days) It came back down almost as quickly, and then gradually went upwards. The Durable goods orders came out better than expected though - at 7.8%.. so that could also explain why the USD tried to spike up.. but obviously core number is more important. Was a pretty lackluster trade.. made about 4 pips (on a damn 10 pip spread) How was your trade Shard? Did cmc execute? Attachment 60657
~Shard~
Quote:
10-26-2006 07:14 AM
Originally Posted by Music_Producer Well, like I said.. since it was a bad report (Core Durable goods came out at 0.1% compared to 1.0%) the GBP/USD spiked up.. but for a very short time (because gbp/usd had already gone up quite a bit since the last 2 days) It came back down almost as quickly, and then gradually went upwards. The Durable goods orders came out better than expected though - at 7.8%.. so that could also explain why the USD tried to spike up.. but obviously core number is more important. Was a pretty lackluster trade.. made about 4 pips (on a damn 10 pip spread) How was your trade Shard? Did cmc execute?
CMC didn't execute because Shard didn't execute. ;) I was actually watching the EUR/USD, not the GBP/USD, although the results, as you described above, were pretty much the same. EUR/USD spiked down about 7 pips initially (on poor news :confused: ), then back to parity, then up 7 pips and that was about it. (There was a gradual gain afterwards, but I wasn't going to eb trading that...) So, I was watching intently with my cursor between the BUY and SEL button, but didn't
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see enough of a spike when the news came through to warrant a trade (IMO), even with the xed 2 pip spread. Glad you made a bit on it though! I just didn't think it was worth my time when I saw the results. All the combinations of what you described above made me think it wasn't going to move much, and it didn't. Well, either that or I'm simply not quick enough yet. :o ;) So what made you trade the GBP/USD over the EUR/USD? Just curious... Does that pair traditionally react more than EUR/USD in situations like this? Also, what do you think about the US reports tomorrow AM? I've heard that they may come out lower than consensus. So, does that mean (if that is indeed the case) the USD will go down on tomorrrw's news? Or, does it mean that since people are expecting it to be lower, the EUR, GBP, etc. will strengthen today in anticipation, and then if the news is bad, not much will happen? I'm interested to hear your thoughts, as I'll be trying to trade that one as well. :cool: Lastly, more of a fundamental question. The rumor is that Australia might hike its interest rate in November. This would therefore make AUD more attractive to people to buy, correct? In other words, they would get more interest from holding AUD, so the AUD would rise on an interest rate increase? Or do I have it wrong? It's still early in the morning here, so forgive me if I'm out to lunch... :o ;) And why again is GBP/JPY a better carry trade than AUD/JPY? The numbers don't add up for me on that one....
Crimson
Oanda?
10-26-2006 01:12 PM
Hi everyone - I've been gone for so long I've lost track of where I left off. Just curious though, has anyone here used Forex.com and FXCM.com? Any feedback? I'm now using both PC and Mac so the options have multiplied! Also, as far as the charting program, are you guys using the Oanda charts only? I was looking into the eSignal charts, but was surprised to see their prices - about $140/mo. I just nd Oanda's charts a bit clumsy, but that would be the same for forex.com - have not looked at the fxcm.com charts yet. OK... I admit it, I'm a designer and a VERY visual person and likes pretty, and easy to read visuals :p Hope everyone has done well... once I get a chance I'll read the entire thread again! Crimson

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~Shard~
Quote:
10-26-2006 02:51 PM
Originally Posted by Crimson Also, as far as the charting program, are you guys using the Oanda charts only? I was looking into the eSignal charts, but was surprised to see their prices - about $140/mo. I just nd Oanda's charts a bit clumsy, but that would be the same for forex.com - have not looked at the fxcm.com charts yet. OK... I admit it, I'm a designer and a VERY visual person and likes pretty, and easy to read visuals :p
I now use CMC coupled with Oanda. CMC does not give me real-time charting down to a 5-second granularity like Oanda, so I use Oanda for the real-time visuals I require. ;) As for charting in general though (and perhaps this is just of interest to me) CMC's charting is better than anything I've seen - better than eSignal and QCharts, both of which you have to pay for. (Keep in mind I trade stocks, bonds, ETFs, indices, commodities, etc.) The amount of exibility their charting provides is amazing, in terms of plotting trend lines, viewing and combining technical analysis, setting alerts - it's very comprehensive and I'm quite impressed. Best of all, it's included, for free, as part of the platform! :cool: As I said above, really the only thing it's missing out on is the real-time charting down to the second such as Oanda provides.
Crimson
CMC Charts
10-26-2006 03:18 PM
Thanks Shard! Just curious, do you have to have a live account with CMC to use their charts? The way I understood it was that they only give you a 14 day trial account. Thanks again!!
The Mad Kiwi
10-26-2006 05:40 PM
This is possibly the most informative threads I've read in a long time, thank's guys. I admit I only read the rst 10 million posts, and then skipped a few pages to the end. :D Anyone know a good platform in Australia? Preferably that they've dealt with and been able to prot take without any problems? Not that I'm really likely to start trading currency, those gearing ratios scare the hell out of me!
Quote:
Australian interest rate is ~Shard~ 100% guaranteed to rise in November, ination is out of the Reserve Bank's target Originally Posted by band and more is importantly, there's a new Bank Governor, it's only his second meeting, theAUD market The rumor that Australia might hike Reserve its interest rate in November. This would therefore make expects the rise andto he'll wantto tobuy, be seem to be on ination. If it didn't allinterest hell would break loose more attractive people correct? In tough other words, they would get rise more from holding on the markets on all fronts. AUD, so the AUD would rise on an interest rate increase? Or do I have it wrong? It's still early in the morning here, so forgive me if I'm out to lunch... :o ;) I'm not happy about it either, my money is invested off shore at the moment and the bloody rising AUD is
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eating all my prots.
~Shard~
Quote:
10-26-2006 07:15 PM
Originally Posted by Crimson Thanks Shard! Just curious, do you have to have a live account with CMC to use their charts? The way I understood it was that they only give you a 14 day trial account. Thanks again!!
Nope, you should be able to use the charts on the 14-day demo account as well. Oh, and if you want that time period extended, you can just phone their support line and they'll do it if you ask nicely. ;) Now that being said, I never played around will the charting to its fullest capacity when I had my demo account, so I'm not sure if certain features are only available on the live platform or not. All I can tell you is that the charting on the live platform is sweet IMO. Although I suppose you have to be into charting, technical analysis and "know what is good" so to speak to fully appreciate it. If a person has never really used charts before they probably wouldn't think it's anything special. ;)
~Shard~ njmac
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10-26-2006 07:19 PM 10-26-2006 07:29 PM
With 565 posts, this thread is packed with information! I have been taking notes from here into Word... so when I get a chance I will postMad a summary Originally Posted by The Kiwi for those who are kind of new to the thread and overwhelmed. This is possibly the most informative threads I've read in a long time, thank's guys. I admit I only I willread be trading next toskipped everyone for keeping the info coming. :) the rst 10 week, millionnally! posts, Thanks and then a few pages to the end. :D
~Shard~
Quote: Quote:
10-26-2006 07:31 PM
Glad you found it useful. Hopefully you'll stick around - and if you have any questions, just ask. :)
Originally Posted by njmac With 565 posts, this is packed Originally Posted by thread The Mad Kiwi with information! I have been taking notes from here into Word... so when I get a chance I Australia? will post a summary those whodealt are kind new to the thread Anyone know a good platform in Preferablyfor that they've with of and been able to prot and overwhelmed. take without any problems? I willthat be trading next week, nally! Thanks to everyone keeping the info coming. Not I'm really likely to start trading currency, those for gearing ratios scare the hell :) out of me!
Thanks in advance for don't the summary njmac , thatin would excellent for any Please let us know Sorry mate, I honestly know about trading Oz. Itbe was a little tricky asnewcomers. it was nding a good platform in if you need any assistance with it. :cool: Canada which wasn't in US funds, etc. :o
Quote: Music_Producer 10-26-2006 07:43 PM
Thanks for the info, I appreciate it.all I'll denitely be trading that Although I suppose ifthis it's a Posted by The Mad Kiwi Yup Originally - Shard and Mad Kiwi (aren't you kiwis mad anyway :p announcement! ) Aussie $ is expected to go up.. and is foregone conclusion that it will rise, then as long as those expectations are met, the currency may not move Australian interest rate is 100% guaranteed to rise in November, ination is out of the Reserve the buzz everywhere. It seems like the perfect pair to carry trade - AUD/JPY. Could the AUD/JPY break 99+ much... ;) Bank's target band and more importantly, there's a new Reserve Bank Governor, it's only barrier? Possibly..I just purchased 100,000 units of AUD/JPY today..will hold on to it, and earnhis some second meeting, the market expects the rise and he'll want to be seem to be tough on ination. If it interest. didn't rise all hell would break loose on the markets on all fronts. If AUD/JPY dips.. I have enough to accomodate the margin call, and besides.. I trade all the time, so the
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prots should help accomodate as well. I they do raise the AUD interest rates, oh boy.. I think everyone and his dog will buy AUD to live off the fat interest. :) I'll be trading one report tomorrow.. the US GDP. If it falls, besides that being bad news for the USD.. it will also signal to the Feds to cut rates in the future.. so that the economy can get stronger (ination is under control, or so they say for now) To answer your question Shard.. I prefer trading the GBP/USD because it moves more than the EUR/USD does.. and the spread on GBP/USD is 10.. whereas on EUR/USD it goes to 15 (most of the time)
~Shard~
Quote:
10-26-2006 07:56 PM
Originally Posted by Music_Producer Yup - Shard and Mad Kiwi (aren't all you kiwis mad anyway :p ) Aussie $ is expected to go up.. and this is the buzz everywhere. It seems like the perfect pair to carry trade - AUD/JPY. Could the AUD/JPY break 99+ barrier? Possibly..I just purchased 100,000 units of AUD/JPY today..will hold on to it, and earn some interest.
Thanks Music_Producer. I think I might try doing just 50,000 for now (being my rst time and all doing a trade longer than a few seconds.... ;)) and that will make me feel good about the margin situation as well. With my 100:1 margin, it'll work out to about 4.5M yen, or $42K CAD, so my actual outlay is only $400. Being I have several thousand in my account, I feel comfortable with this situation with respect to margin. I trust I am right in my thinking? ;)
Quote:
Originally Posted by Music_Producer I they do raise the AUD interest rates, oh boy.. I think everyone and his dog will buy AUD to live off the fat interest. :)
Yep - I'll buy more. I might buy some just before the announcement as well and not even wait for the news! :eek: ;)
Quote:
Originally Posted by Music_Producer I'll be trading one report tomorrow.. the US GDP. If it falls, besides that being bad news for the USD.. it will also signal to the Feds to cut rates in the future.. so that the economy can get stronger (ination is under control, or so they say for now)
I'll be keeping an eye on it as well. So, just as we discussed with the AUD situation, if the US cuts rates, people will start bailing out of the USD, correct? Hmm, and I might just have to buy some Gold as well then it has an inverse relationship to the USD. I'l check out the November contract as well as the spot XAUUSD right now... :cool:
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Music_Producer To answer your question Shard.. I prefer trading the GBP/USD because it moves more than the EUR/USD does.. and the spread on GBP/USD is 10.. whereas on EUR/USD it goes to 15 (most of the time)
Cool, good to know. On CMC the GBP/USD spread is 3 pips as opposed to the EUR/USD which is 2 pips, so not a huge difference. I'll watch both pairs tomorrow and see what happens. Last question - is the US GDP expected to drop? In other words, will a drop of what is expected not necessarily be bad for the USD? Or will any falling GDP be bad?
Music_Producer
10-27-2006 01:34 AM
Shard, if the US interest rates are cut.. then yes, the USD will go down.. but not by much. Remember, that its a 'safe haven' in times of war, energy crisis, etc. The USD will still offer higher yields compared to other currencies.. I mean, would you want to put all your money in a Japanese bank and make no interest? However, there is a limit to which a currency will go to.. if people keep selling JPY.. at some point, the Bank of Japan will intervene and buy a huge amount (billions) of Yen to halt the drop. So a lot of money is at stake for banks ..which is why you usually see a drop or hike in currency levels limited to about 80-100 pips after a deviated report. Let's say USD GDP comes out absolute crap.. like -4%. Sure, EUR/USD will shoot up by 60-80 pips.. but it won't break that barrier (usually) There are a lot of stop losses set around that area.. and then banks start buying the USD like mad men.. so that they don't lose their initial trades. That's where you start seeing all the spikes going up and down.. and you wonder 'what the hell?' I do expect the GDP to be on the lower side.. but the markets expect that anyway. The question is, how much will the deviation be? If it's as expected (2.9%) then there will be a drop of maybe 10 pips or so.. nothing great. If the GDP is -1% or some crazy number.. then the drop will be bigger.. like 40-60 pips easily. Gold, for some reason, behaved strangely during the NK and the high oil price scenario.. didn't it? People were more interested in buying USD than gold. Usually gold and CHF are safe havens .. so it was a bit puzzling.
Music_Producer
2 Attachment(s)
10-27-2006 05:39 AM
Darn.. why do I always exit so fast? :mad: Made 12 pips on today's GDP trade.. horrible reports for USD.. could have made 40 pips.. bah!! Anyway, made enough to buy a mbp :)
Attachment 60724 The second pic is where the GBP hiked up after I exited.. (*complains*) Attachment 60725
Music_Producer
1 Attachment(s)
10-27-2006 06:59 AM
Shard, one of the possible hazards of carry trading.. look at the GBP/JPY today. It dropped 140 pips in less
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than 20 minutes :eek: :eek: and no god damn reason! Attachment 60730
~Shard~
10-27-2006 07:08 AM
Nice trade Muisic_Producer! I, on the other hand, learned a valuable lesson. I've learned this lesson before when trading stocks, commodities, etc., but this forex thing is still rather new to me, so I guess it's to be expected. :o ;) Basically, I was slow on the gun. Saw the report, saw that it was lower, but it took me a brief second to register how low it was. In that time, I saw GBP/USD spike up big time - the trade where you made your pips. So, in the heat of the moment, I committed one of my "cardinal sins" - something I always avoid - I deviated from my strategy. This is something I have taught myself over the years never to do. Sure, you have to learn to react, improvise, etc. at times, but, well, you know what I mean... ;) Instead of trading on the news (the facts) I traded on speculation (bad bad bad!) and SOLD GBP/USD hoping for a bit of a recovery after such a spike. Now, I quickly realized the error in my ways, and since I was only trading 50,000 it wasn't a huge deal (only lost $200) but still, I ended up losing money when I should have ended up making money. :o It honestly doesn't bother me though. I'm still new to the "forex world" and sometimes you need a good lesson like this to help ground you and give you perspective. As long as you learn from your mistakes, it's okay to make them. As I've said before to many people, if something is worth doing, then it's worth doing wrong intially. ;) :cool: I'd honestly rather have this happen then always be a winner and get careless and over-condent as a result. So yeah, down $200? Honestly, that's nothing for me. And thanks to being cautious in using a lower lot size and level-headed afterwards (i.e. not wanting to revenge trade, etc.), I mitigated my loss quite nicely I'd like to think. Just wanted to share my story with everyone for what it's worth. But now I'm more interested in what the next big announcement is as you see it Music_Producer. What do you gure? Time to make up my loss. :)
~Shard~
Quote:
10-27-2006 07:11 AM
Originally Posted by Music_Producer Shard, one of the possible hazards of carry trading.. look at the GBP/JPY today. It dropped 140 pips in less than 20 minutes :eek: :eek: and no god damn reason!
Yikes! Yeah, I had a stop loss on my AUD/JPY which I bought last night and I got stopped out this morning as well - luckily with 10 pips prot from when I bought it though. :) So much for using it as a long-term trade... ;) The only thing I can think of is that Japan's CPI (I believe it was) inched higher than expected, but you wouldn't think it would move things that much. Ah well, I'll check things out again tonight and might enter back into AUD/JPY, we'll see... I'd like to get at least one day's interest on the sucker... :D
Music_Producer
10-27-2006 07:28 AM
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$200 is nothing.. imagine if you had lost much more! I've done that too.. stupid trades, emotional trading.. crazy stuff. I have to hold myself back at times. Btw, I took a risk and bought GBP/JPY when it went down 150 pips. Figured it would rise a little.. and it did.. so made about 25 pips and got out. My AUD/JPY is still open.. somehow that hasn't taken a hit compared to GBP/JPY.
Music_Producer
1 Attachment(s)
10-27-2006 07:49 AM
Attachment 60735 Here;s the GBP/JPY trade.. it's still rising.. could have made 50+pips..easy.. but 25 is good enough. The GBP is pretty strong and it should be back up to its regular levels. AUD/JPY is also coming up..at 90.38 now :)
~Shard~
Quote:
10-27-2006 07:51 AM
Originally Posted by Music_Producer $200 is nothing.. imagine if you had lost much more! I've done that too.. stupid trades, emotional trading.. crazy stuff. I have to hold myself back at times.
Oh I know it's nothing. I was leaning towards not even mentioning it, but then I thought I would in the interest of others here beneting from my experience, being a person who has "been there, done that" before, in my early days of trading. I've been down thousands on trades before (luckily not that often!) so I'd like to think I have ice water in my veins for the most part - this doesn't affect me in the least. ;) :) But yah, funny how easy it is to cave into emotional responses. You really have to be disciplined with this stuff - there's another good lesson. :cool:
Quote:
Originally Posted by Music_Producer Btw, I took a risk and bought GBP/JPY when it went down 150 pips. Figured it would rise a little.. and it did.. so made about 25 pips and got out. My AUD/JPY is still open.. somehow that hasn't taken a hit compared to GBP/JPY.
Nice one. Yeah, I bought into AUD/JPY last night around 90.54 (?) and had a conditional stop in at 90.74 (i.e. if AUD/JPY passed that point by x%, activate the stop to preserve prots.) This morning I was actually up even more on it, but then it started decreasing a fair bit. As I said, I'll check in again tonight and maybe attempt a carry trade again (this time longer than 8 hours ;)). Just a guess, but I'm thinking that holding a currency like that over the weekend is usually a fairly safe bet, since it doesn't move much on the weekends due to lack of news/activity? Yes, no?
Hoef
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10-27-2006 05:59 PM
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Originally Posted by Music_Producer Yup Hoef.. my shutdowns began after I updated the OS to 10.4.8.. but then again, if people with 10.4.7 have the same problem.. it would have to be a hardware issue. What's annoying is that after all the ipod crap that Apple are so obsessed with, the hardware products seem to have taken a backseat.
Off topic but Apple just released a rmware update to address the shutdown issue. Check out software updater.
Music_Producer
10-30-2006 06:21 PM
Hoef.. my macbook works great after the update.. no shut downs.. and its absolutely quiet. :) Went out during the weekend to San Diego - the Wild Animal Park.. Shard, I still have my AUD/JPY position open :D .. earning some nice interest on it, and those pips that I made on the GBP/JPY trade actually balanced me out pretty well.. so if I sell AUD/JPY at 90.20.. I won't go in a loss. I'd rather wait a bit though.
~Shard~
Quote:
10-30-2006 08:16 PM
Originally Posted by Music_Producer (Post 3000444) Shard, I still have my AUD/JPY position open :D .. earning some nice interest on it, and those pips that I made on the GBP/JPY trade actually balanced me out pretty well.. so if I sell AUD/JPY at 90.20.. I won't go in a loss. I'd rather wait a bit though.
Nice one. Yeah, it's interesting to see how the currencies move when you're actually holding them for longer than 6 seconds... ;) I think I'll pop back into AUD/JPY myself in the next day or two and just let it ride. I'll have enough cash in my margin account to cover a dip of over 2 cents technically, so I should be ne... Also looking at picking up some XAU/USD (Spot Gold against the USD). Gold has a period of seasonal strength right now on its own (Indian jewelers stocking up for wedding season, other jewelers for Xmas season, many other factors too...) but coupled with the fact that it has an inverse relationship to the USD, I like this cross-pair and am going to give it a try... :cool:
Music_Producer
Hey Shard.. very interesting stuff about Gold.. :)
10-31-2006 10:10 AM
AUD/JPY is back at 90.57.. GBP/JPY is still at a low level though. I think it was just GBP/JPY that was overbought.. I don't think AUD will go down until that interest rate decision anyway.
~Shard~
Quote:
10-31-2006 02:20 PM
Originally Posted by Music_Producer (Post 3003209)
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1/15/08 8:19 PM
Hey Shard.. very interesting stuff about Gold.. :) AUD/JPY is back at 90.57.. GBP/JPY is still at a low level though. I think it was just GBP/JPY that was overbought.. I don't think AUD will go down until that interest rate decision anyway.
I'll keep you posted on the Gold front - it's getting ripe for the picking... Other nice thing is, with CMC, they do not charge any nancing (overnight interest) on commodity positions - it's technically built into the spread. As a result, I don't have to worry about paying 6% interest (or whatever god-awful amount) on tens of thousands of borrowed dollars every day on my commodity trades - that tends to erode prots fairly quickly... ;) I bought AUD/JPY this morning before work @ 90.66. I promise to actually hold it longer than a day this time and actually collect interest for a change on it. :o ;) Plus, I only picked up $50,000 for now. That way if it goes down signicantly for whatever reason, I can DCA down since I'm condent in its relative long-term performance - as well as the whole carry trade interest thing of course. :)
~Shard~
10-31-2006 07:31 PM
Music_Producer, could you help explain this little nuance to carry trading for me? Since I haven't done this before, I'm not sure if this is standard practice, or something specic to how CMC handles things... Basically, my AUD/JPY position was just rolled over. Perhaps I'm not reading my client position summary correctly, but the way it is represented at least, it appears as though CMC executed a rollover trade on my behalf. My position was closed out at 90.47 for a loss of $90 (I owned 50,000 @ 90.66 at the time) and then 50,000 was subsequently bought @ 90.4264 for me (essentially giving me a 4 pip bonus. ;) ) (And I am currently up about 15 pips on it = $75) So, is this just how they do it every day, and if so do I need to track my position every day to make sure I know exactly how much I'm up/down? (i.e. down $90 today, up $60 tomorrow, down $10 the next day, etc.) And how would the interest payment work on this? When would it be realized in my account? I'm assuming as a simple CR? Or is it built into that 4 pip differential between my rollover orders? Let's see, 50,000 * 6% / 365 = $8.22. Hmm, nope, that doesn't equal 4 pips x 50,000, which is what a day's interest should be... :confused: Sorry, just thinking out loud here, perhaps I'm missing something simple. :o ;) Any ideas? I'm familiar with commodity contracts rolling over upon expiry, but those always last a full month, not just a day! And for what it's worth, my "new" position has a "value date" of November 6th... hmm... Just want to make sure I fully understand exactly what is going on and how things are handled. I always pride myself on being educated when it comes to matters like this, and don't like being unsure, as I'm sure you can appreciate. Any insight would be most appreciated. :cool:
~Shard~
10-31-2006 08:08 PM
Further to the above, I realize something funky may have been going on since it it the end of the month and all, but I'm still curious about the specics. I guess I'm just not used to closing out trades like that automatically, unless it's a commodity trade near the expiry date. For common shares for instance, I have been several thousand dollars down on stocks before, but it's all been on paper, and I've in many cases simply held on and realized a much smaller loss or even a gain - it would stress me out if those positions were actually closed at a huge loss when my intent was to hold it long term, and my capital gain/loss was therefore realized on a regular basis like that! ;) I guess in my mind I thought this carry trade would act just like owning a stock. I own some currency, and
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whether it's for 10 seconds or 10 days, whether it's up or down, I could just sit back, collect interest and sell it to realize a capital gain/loss when I so choose. :cool: Lastly, so you don't get the wrong idea, I'm not ticked off by this in the least - just confused and a bit cautious as a result until I fully understand the specics. But enough babbling from me on this topic for now... :o ;) :cool:
Hoef
11-01-2006 05:15 AM
Interesting issue you have ~shard~. On OANDA, nothing like this happens, though I don't think I can hold any pair longer for a week (but that is a user preference). Did it pay out interest when it "rolled over"?
~Shard~
Quote:
11-01-2006 06:28 AM
Originally Posted by Hoef (Post 3006152) Interesting issue you have ~shard~. On OANDA, nothing like this happens, though I don't think I can hold any pair longer for a week (but that is a user preference). Did it pay out interest when it "rolled over"?
The only thing I can think of is that it has something to with the end of the month, but even that's a bit odd to me... As for the interest, I'll check tonight when I get home after work, it should show up by then. Not sure if it's calculated based on midnight of my time zone, CMC's main time zone, or GMT, not that it really matters. Oh, and the position was denitely rolled over. I now show a $90DR and a "new" position @ 90.43. Doesn't really matter in the grand scheme of things, but still. I might have to phone CMC for further clarication as well.
Music_Producer
11-01-2006 05:10 PM
Shard, that's a little odd :confused: I've held a carry trade position with Oanda for 2 months, and my position was never closed. So I don't think it would be a end-of-the-month thing. I've had one position at GFT for 2 weeks.. but no position was closed. I don't know how CMC operates though.. maybe they have some specic rule regarding carry trades. Also, regarding the interest rates.. not everybody pays daily interest or in fact, the same interest either! Out of all the forex brokers, I found Oanda to be the best for carry trading.. because they pay interest daily. You might want to check with CMC as to what really happened.
~Shard~
Quote:
11-01-2006 07:11 PM
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Originally Posted by Music_Producer (Post 3008724) Shard, that's a little odd :confused: I've held a carry trade position with Oanda for 2 months, and my position was never closed. So I don't think it would be a end-of-the-month thing. I've had one position at GFT for 2 weeks.. but no position was closed. I don't know how CMC operates though.. maybe they have some specic rule regarding carry trades. Also, regarding the interest rates.. not everybody pays daily interest or in fact, the same interest either! Out of all the forex brokers, I found Oanda to be the best for carry trading.. because they pay interest daily. You might want to check with CMC as to what really happened.
Yeah, it looks like the close out positions every once and a while and open a new position based on the differential of the interest rates. Regardless, I don't like realizing capital gains/losses until I choose to! ;) I'm phoning them tomorrow to clarify. I'll still continue to trade with them, but this might just affect my strategy a bit, that's all. :)
~Shard~
11-01-2006 07:26 PM
So are you planning on trading any of the US news either tomorrow morning or Friday morning? If so, which announcements are you watching for and what are your predictions?
Music_Producer
11-01-2006 11:41 PM
Tomorrow morning there's nothing but the EUR interest rate statement. Its expected to remain unchanged at 3.25%.. so I'll just be watching. If they hike/lower the rate.. obviously I'll trade. Friday morning is Canadian employment change and the US Non Farm employment change.. you know the 'non farm' stuff creates a lot of excitement.. lol. Absolutely no predictions on that one :p It jumps around quite a bit!
~Shard~
11-02-2006 04:38 AM
Sounds good - I'll be taking a break today, but will be watching tomorrow with my mouse-clicking nger at the ready... ;) :cool:
Music_Producer
11-03-2006 01:37 AM
Well I just traded the UK Services PMI (GBP/USD) for only 3 pips.. I was a little late entering the trade (I think a little Black Label that I drank an hour earlier might have affected my reexes!) Weird.. i can't seem to attach the screenshot.. it gives me a 'You do not have permission to access this feature' or something like that. I'll try attaching the pic later. Next trade is the CAD employment and USD non farm.
Music_Producer
Great Canadian trade
11-03-2006 04:05 AM
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2 Attachment(s)
21 pips on the USD/CAD pair.. traded the CAD employment change report. Last one to trade is the USD non-farm.. hope i can stay awake till then! Attachment 61295 The second image is the GBP/USD pair I traded earlier
~Shard~
Ideal trade for me, this is pretty much how I'd like it to happen every time! :)
11-03-2006 04:08 AM
Although Oanda's news service didn't report the CAD #s I saw the USD/CAD spike down so I sold. Sold at 1.1297, bought at 1.1308 and make a nice 11 pips in less than 30 seconds! I got in a little late, technically, but without a news ash to support the move, I wanted to conrm the downtrend before I sold. Did you manage to do a trade as well Music_Producer? Edit: I see you beat me to it! Nice trade! Yes, I still don't have your speed yet to capture as many pips as you, but I'm working on it - all in good time... ;) :cool:
Music_Producer
Yup Shard, I wish all trades were like this! Well most of them are :)
11-03-2006 05:05 AM
If you're trading the non farm report.. I would caution you to use a smaller lot.. because of the darn revisions that are always whack. The last time, the revision deviated by a huge number.. so you saw those whipsaws in the eur/usd. I'm trading with a small lot, it's not worth taking a risk when you know there's going to be some volatility ahead!
Music_Producer
11-03-2006 05:40 AM
Holy cow! That was one heck of a crazy trade.. looks like neither Oanda nor MB Trading could handle this one. Both platforms froze approx. a few seconds after the spike. I made about 8 pips.. could have made more but i just cant login! Is CMC functioning well Shard?
Music_Producer
11-03-2006 05:43 AM
Man this is the last time I trade the NFP. It's a good thing I closed all my trades before the platforms crashed. I still can't sign in! Unbelievable.. I feel for those who are still stuck :eek: GBP/USD and EUR/USD are still moving like crazy.. whipsaw all over the place.. sheesh! Edit: - Its the stupid a$$ revisions again. Aug numbers were revised from +51K to +238 K!!!! WTF?? Makes you wonder what kind of calculators these so called economists who work for the government use! How can they be so off??
~Shard~
Sounds like you had a wild ride Music_Producer!
11-03-2006 08:44 AM
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CMC did indeed execute just ne for me. I saw the reports and spike in the EUR/USD (decided to do this pair instead of GBP/USD this time around) and sold. Moments later I closed my position and ended up making 20 pips, my largest gain to date! :D CMC executed awlessly, kept the 2 pip spread - it was all good. And thanks for the head's up on using a smaller lot size. Although the way it worked out I could have made more, I could easily have lost more as well due to the volitility. ;) As it turns out, I still made a decent prot so it's all ne by me. :cool:
Music_Producer
11-03-2006 12:34 PM
That's awesome Shard! CMC is looking more and more tempting to me now :D Yeah.. I made a prot.. but heck, this was a 100 pip drop.. so to make 8 pips on that because of platform issues is absolutely unacceptable to me. I was able to log back in after an HOUR! :rolleyes: You made a lot of pips today.. time to celebrate :p PS - Did you see AUD/JPY? It's gone up to 90.81 and above.
~Shard~
Quote:
11-03-2006 01:15 PM
Originally Posted by Music_Producer That's awesome Shard! CMC is looking more and more tempting to me now :D Yeah.. I made a prot.. but heck, this was a 100 pip drop.. so to make 8 pips on that because of platform issues is absolutely unacceptable to me. I was able to log back in after an HOUR! :rolleyes:
Yikes - imagine all the people who got kicked out of their account with open trades! :eek: That could amount to some serious losses... :( CMC is by no means perfect - just read some of my previous posts on the differences/deciencies between it and Oanda - but nothing is perfect at the end of the day. For me, the Oanda/CMC combo is working ne though. Oanda for the news and real-time 5-second charts and CMC for the actual trade execution, xed spreads and 100:1 leverage. You could always just give it a try if you like - they have a 14-day trial and it's all free. Also, I have all the documentation on the software platform, FX trading, etc. and would be willing to e-mail it to you if you would like to read through it to get a better idea of things. Just PM me if you want. :) Also, keep in mind that I use CMC for other trading as well - as a forex platform itself, it may not be the best for you, but for me, it's a great all-around platform. Also, since I'm just getting started and am not at the "level" you are with repsect to quickness, efciency, etc., perhaps CMC is good enough for me but would not be able to keep up with you. :o ;) One way to nd out though I guess...
Quote:
Originally Posted by Music_Producer You made a lot of pips today.. time to celebrate :p
Guess that means I need ot have a pip party. :D
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Yeah, the full 100 would have been nice, but I'll take 20 any day! As I've stated before, I still consider myself new to forex trading, and want to err on the side of caution. Come 2007 though I think I will start using larger lot sizes and so forth. For right now though, a couple hundred bucks here and there is quite ne by me!
Quote:
Originally Posted by Music_Producer PS - Did you see AUD/JPY? It's gone up to 90.81 and above.
Yes, unfortunately I am not carry trading it at the moment - I closed my position a day ago due to that rollover issue I was having. I wanted to be completely out of everything until I fully understood how they worked things. Now that I understand rollovers, Value Dates, Mark to Market and so forth, I know how they handle things and will enter back in this weekend most likely - Monday at the latest. Even if there is a slight sell-off due to the AUD's recent rise, I think long term it can only go higher. And with interest rate hikes looming, it makes sense to me... :cool:

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~Shard~
11-03-2006 05:45 PM
Quick question for you Music_Producer. I thought that the forex markets were open 24 hours a day, 7 days a week. However it appears as though (at least from Oanda's real time charts) there is no activity/movement on the AUD/JPY pair at all for the weekend and previous weekends as well. Is there no trading for the next day or so, or could I still buy right now if I wanted to? I didn't think the forex markets closed at any time...
Music_Producer
11-04-2006 01:53 AM
Shard, the markets *are* open 24 hours/ 7 days a week.. but from Friday 2 pm PST (somewhere near there) to Sunday 2 pm PST.. the spreads widen to 10-20 pips.. because the banks/govt. agencies are closed.. and they are the ones who do major trades. So you won't see any spikes or anything of that sort.. however you can buy/sell.. but it makes no sense opening a new position as you'll be hit by a 10-20 pip spread rightaway.
~Shard~
Quote:
11-04-2006 08:30 AM
Originally Posted by Music_Producer (Post 3017639) Shard, the markets *are* open 24 hours/ 7 days a week.. but from Friday 2 pm PST (somewhere near there) to Sunday 2 pm PST.. the spreads widen to 10-20 pips.. because the banks/govt. agencies are closed.. and they are the ones who do major trades. So you won't see any spikes or anything of that sort.. however you can buy/sell.. but it makes no sense opening a new position as you'll be hit by a 10-20 pip spread rightaway.
Thanks for the clarication Music_Producer. As I mentioned above, I had closed out my AUD/JPY position until I had sorted out how CMC was handling things and now I am eager to get back in. ;) Hmm, I should re up CMC and see if they still have their 4 pip spread on the pair or if they widen it as well... So what catches your eye this week for announcements? I'll be watching the CAD housing starts Wednesday and the AUD employment #s on Thursday for sure along with all the USD news... :cool:
Hoef
Quote:
11-04-2006 11:29 AM
Originally Posted by ~Shard~ (Post 3018185) Thanks for the clarication Music_Producer. As I mentioned above, I had closed out my AUD/JPY position until I had sorted out how CMC was handling things and now I am eager to get back in. ;) Hmm, I should re up CMC and see if they still have their 4 pip spread on the pair or if they widen it as well...
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Just noted that OANDA pays out interest daily ... I never hold on that long so it's the rst time I see it.
~Shard~
Quote:
11-04-2006 12:10 PM
Originally Posted by Hoef (Post 3018625) Just noted that OANDA pays out interest daily ... I never hold on that long so it's the rst time I see it.
Yep, it sure does. My CMC pays you interest on a daily basis as well, however for whatever reason they don't actually pay you/deposit it in your account until the end of the month. <shrug>
Music_Producer
11-05-2006 02:33 AM
Shard, that's not being paid interest on a daily basis.. if it gets deposited at the end of the month. Your balances are not updated daily.. only monthly. Same as a bank.. you could have a savings account @ 5% but interest is deposited monthly.. whereas Oanda pays you daily. I think that's the best feature about Oanda. Also, just posting some info I got from the CMC markets web site (but then you already know this :) ) which explains your AUD/JPY trade (why it was closed and re-opened) 'How is Financing Charged and Calculated? At (17:00) 5:00pm EST (Standard FX market Value-Date change time) each day CMC Markets will settle all Spot positions by closing the trade at the current market rate and re-opening it for the following day!s Spot date at a rate that will reect the interest rate differential.'
~Shard~
Quote:
11-05-2006 10:58 AM
Originally Posted by Music_Producer (Post 3020318) Shard, that's not being paid interest on a daily basis.. if it gets deposited at the end of the month. Your balances are not updated daily.. only monthly. Same as a bank.. you could have a savings account @ 5% but interest is deposited monthly.. whereas Oanda pays you daily. I think that's the best feature about Oanda.
Ah, I see what you mean. I guess what I was meaning was that it's not like I have to hold something for a month for them to pay me interest on it. If I hold it for 2 days, then I get paid 2 days' worth of interest and instead of it being deposited immediately, it's deposited all together at the end of the month - that's what I was meaning I guess. ;)
Quote:
Originally Posted by Music_Producer (Post 3020318) Also, just posting some info I got from the CMC markets web site (but then you already know this :) ) which explains your AUD/JPY trade (why it was closed and re-opened)
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'How is Financing Charged and Calculated? At (17:00) 5:00pm EST (Standard FX market Value-Date change time) each day CMC Markets will settle all Spot positions by closing the trade at the current market rate and re-opening it for the following day!s Spot date at a rate that will reect the interest rate differential.'
Yeah, thanks for that - I did nd that little bit of info on their website eventually, but it would have been good to know ahead of time as well. Guess I missed it the rst time around. :o ;) I had their Trading Desk sort me out on it as well, so it's all good now. Lessoned learned for next time. :cool:
Music_Producer
1 Attachment(s)
11-06-2006 01:35 AM
Just traded the GBP report.. 6 pips.. simple trade and quite boring. Attachment 61495
~Shard~
11-06-2006 07:09 PM
So what are your thoughts Music_Prodcuer on the AUD rate announcement tomorrow? Consensus is that they will raise rates, which should in theory cause the AUD to rise, however is it possible that traders have already factored in this rate hike into the currency? As a result, if the hike is announced as expected, could the AUD actually go down a little? Regardless, if they do not raise rates, the AUD will go down, and if they lower rates (will NOT happen) the AUD would absolutely tank. Do I have it right? ;) :)
Hoef
Quote:
11-06-2006 09:15 PM
Originally Posted by ~Shard~ (Post 3026027) So what are your thoughts Music_Prodcuer on the AUD rate announcement tomorrow? Consensus is that they will raise rates, which should in theory cause the AUD to rise, however is it possible that traders have already factored in this rate hike into the currency? As a result, if the hike is announced as expected, could the AUD actually go down a little? Regardless, if they do not raise rates, the AUD will go down, and if they lower rates (will NOT happen) the AUD would absolutely tank. Do I have it right? ;) :)
Yeah I am thinking the same .... give up my long position before it tanks (maybe)
~Shard~
11-07-2006 04:09 AM
Don't get me wrong, I still lie AUD/JPY as a carry trade (and it will be even more attractive after a rate hike) but I was just thinking that today it might be best to get out before the announcement "just in case". ;) Plus, I will (alas) be at wrk during the announcement and will not be able to trade on the news although I would love to. I guess the best thing I can do is buy some when I get home (presumably after it has settled down
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from however it reacted) and continue with the carry trade...
Music_Producer
11-07-2006 07:48 PM
Shard.. sorry for the late reply.. but yes, the interest rate hike has already been priced in. Everything you said was correct.. about getting out before the rate hike.. but its still at 90.83 or so.. so if you got in much before that you're still ok. If they had not raised the rates.. the AUD would have dropped.. probably 100-200 pips or so. Again, this is like 'buy the rumors and sell the news' Everytime the markets expect that interest rates will be hiked.. they buy that currency and it keeps going up.. then the day it actually happens.. there are shorts everywhere. Of course, I still feel that AUD will go up simply because of the interest rate differentials.. and nothing else. Fundamentally.. there is not much to support the AUD. Btw, I just signed up with CMC markets this afternoon, so hopefully my account will be set up by tomorrow and I will try a few trades on that platform :D
Soverc
Question about news I have a easy question, mainly want clarication on what I understand. X/Y if we have GOOD news for X, this would point towards BUY X/Y if we have GOOD news for Y, this would point towards SELL X/Y if we have BAD news for X, this would point towards SELL X/Y if we have BAD news for Y, this would point towards BUY Thanks in advance.
11-07-2006 08:08 PM
~Shard~
Quote:
11-07-2006 08:25 PM
Originally Posted by Music_Producer (Post 3029997) Shard.. sorry for the late reply.. but yes, the interest rate hike has already been priced in. Everything you said was correct.. about getting out before the rate hike.. but its still at 90.83 or so.. so if you got in much before that you're still ok. If they had not raised the rates.. the AUD would have dropped.. probably 100-200 pips or so. Again, this is like 'buy the rumors and sell the news' Everytime the markets expect that interest rates will be hiked.. they buy that currency and it keeps going up.. then the day it actually happens.. there are shorts everywhere. Of course, I still feel that AUD will go up simply because of the interest rate differentials.. and nothing else. Fundamentally.. there is not much to support the AUD. Btw, I just signed up with CMC markets this afternoon, so hopefully my account will be set up by tomorrow and I will try a few trades on that platform :D
Thanks for the reply and better late than never! I appreciate it regardless. ;) As for the fundamentals on AUD, I've heard reports that their economy, etc. should behave in a manner that would bolster their currency in the future - is this not what you've heard? I have heard reports that AUD over
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the long term could go to 96 against the JPY... Regardless, I agree, I think now more than ever people will look at it as an excellent carry trade vehicle and that alone should keep it from huge price drops. I'll probably pop in again soon. As for CMC, please let me know how it works out for you and if you have any questions. As I said, it is good enough for me so far and for the (beginner) stage I'm at, but perhaps someone with more "professional requirements" as yourself will not nd it up to par. ;) Let me know though. :) Keep in mind the default is 2 clicks to execute a trade but you can make it one, and then once your order is executed right on that screen you can click "New" and get a new order to close the trade off. Anyway, I'm sure you'll play around with it and see it if will work well for you or not. Just remember that you need to use it in league with Oanda for the news and 5 second charting intervals.
~Shard~
Quote:
11-07-2006 08:30 PM
Originally Posted by Soverc (Post 3030058) X/Y if we have GOOD news for X, this would point towards BUY
Correct.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Soverc (Post 3030058) X/Y if we have GOOD news for Y, this would point towards SELL
Correct.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Soverc (Post 3030058) X/Y if we have BAD news for X, this would point towards SELL
Correct.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Soverc (Post 3030058) X/Y if we have BAD news for Y, this would point towards BUY
Correct. 4/4, good one! ;) Yep, that's generally how it works, but keep in mind there are many factors. Take an announcement like today's with the AUD/JPY pair. Australia raised its interest rates (good new for the currency) however since
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everyone was expecting them to, this was essentially priced into the currency, and as a result the AUD/JPY weakened a bit if anything. Also, you have to keep in mind what other currencies are doing as well. just because there is good USD news, don't automatically sell EUR/USD, as there might be reason why the EUR will go up regardless! Many factors at play, but you have the basics. If you have any further questions just ask! :cool:
Crimson
Oil Price Article
1 Attachment(s)
11-07-2006 09:25 PM
I need help understanding why I can't interpret this info in the attched Oanda chart!! (This came from a Forex beginner newsletter that I just happened to get my hands on!): "Oil prices, which had been edging up for months, suddenly jumped 11%, breaking through $53/barrel to a 19-week high. Abrubtly the US Dollar (USD), which had risen to just below $1.25 Canadian (CAD) the previous day, reversed direction and fell back. On Tuesday, when it was obvious that oil prices weren't moderating, the Dollar fell another two cents (200 pips!), then bottomed on Wednesday at $1.20 for a total losss of ve cents." Question 1: I guess I can see that there were a strong movement around that very time (about 300 pips UP) and I thought that meant the USD got stronger, and the article above says it got weaker. Question 2: Also, why can I not read the numbers they are talking about? $1.25?? All I get it to be is $1.1650 - urk, I feel really stupid! :confused: Grateful for replies, as always!! :)
Music_Producer
11-09-2006 05:37 AM
Crimson.. I have no idea why the report doesn't match the charts :confused: Maybe there's something wrong somewhere.. either the report itself.. or the timing of the chart. Shard.. just bagged 14 pips on cmc.. my rst trade with them :) I didn't have to do the demo thing.. it's a very easy platform to work with and you explained everything perfectly.. except when closing the trade. I clicked on 'new' after selling the gbp/usd.. and clicked on 'buy' immediately.. but it didn't register that. I clicked again.. and the trade was closed. So I guess you have to double click to close :p Edit - btw.. cmc gave instant execution and a xed 3 pip spread.. quite impressed.
~Shard~
Quote:
11-09-2006 06:49 AM
Originally Posted by Music_Producer (Post 3035602) Shard.. just bagged 14 pips on cmc.. my rst trade with them :) I didn't have to do the demo thing.. it's a very easy platform to work with and you explained everything perfectly.. except when closing the trade. I clicked on 'new' after selling the gbp/usd.. and clicked on 'buy' immediately.. but it didn't register that. I clicked again.. and the trade was closed. So I guess you have to double click to close :p
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Edit - btw.. cmc gave instant execution and a xed 3 pip spread.. quite impressed.
That's great news Music_Producer, I'm very happy to hear that CMC performed well for you. :) As for the double-clicking to close issue, are you sure you didn't have that new trade set to the 2-click default? Honestly, on my trades I don't think I've ever had to double-click (unless I've done it subconsciously ;)) Regardless, I'm glad everything worked out well for you and that the CMC platform didn't make a liar out of me. ;) :D As for myself, I ended up ahead this morning, but barely. I traded the EUR/USD this time, as I wanted to stay away from the GBP/USD just due to the recent BoE announcement - wasn't sure if that would skew its reaction to the news. Anyway I sold EUR/USD and made a nice 8 pip prot - I'm still a little slow on the gun, but practice makes perfect! ;) I also simultaneously traded the USD/CAD on the CAD surplus report, however it didn't move as I thought it would. Hindsight tells me I shouldn't have used the USD/CAD pair due to the USD announcements, rather another currency with CAD would have been better, but chock ity up to a lesson learned for next time. At any rate, I lost 6 pips on that, but since I was still ahead overall, I just closed my position for the loss and was ne with that - you can't win every single time! Lots of news next week to trade on though - PPI, CPI, etc. Should be fun! Once again, glad CMC impressed you and worked well for you Music_Producer! :cool:
thebear
have a question for anyone. Has anybody heard of or used such a service as this below? http://www.wfxadvices.com/
11-09-2006 01:00 PM
~Shard~
Quote:
11-09-2006 01:29 PM
Originally Posted by thebear (Post 3036896) have a question for anyone. Has anybody heard of or used such a service as this below? http://www.wfxadvices.com/
Ah, looks like you found Music_Producer's and my website! :p ;) :D Seriously, I'm not familiar with this service myself. I'm guessing it's like those investment "clubs" out there whereby you join up, they take your money, they tell everyone what to buy (after they've bought in at a much lower price) and there you go. Some hits, some misses. I'd have to do some more research to see if this would be any good. I have my doubts though...
Music_Producer
11-09-2006 03:27 PM
Thebear.. such websites promtoting these services are everywhere. I would absolutely avoid them. The methods I use - always, always work. Sure, like Shard mentioned.. these sites might give some hits but usually they are like 2 or 3 while the losses will be 20. You really don't want to pay $200 or whatever every month to make losses!
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All of them will have a substantial 'proven track record' Thats bull****. I can bet that if you looked at their real records they would all have major losses. So stay away from those.. or, if you have money to spend.. you can try such services. Shard.. I did have the one click option set.. so when i hit 'sell' it executed in one click. Then i clicked on 'new' and then i hit 'buy' to close the trade.. but nothing happened.. so i hit 'buy' again. Then it executed. I tried the demo right now and the same thing.. lol, maybe i have a special cmc account :D Ad yes, don't trade the CAD at all when there are other announcements.. come on, you know the world ignores the CAD :p just kidding.. seriously though.. the CAD won't move.. or might even move in the opposite direction when another USD news is going on.. because the entire world trades $, and unfortunately not CAD $ that much. When there's 1 trillion US $ being bought/sold.. 1 million CAD $ just won't break that kind of USD volume to create any fancy moves. I only trade the USD/CAD when there is no other report at that time (or its a *very* minor report)
~Shard~
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11-09-2006 05:20 PM
Originally Posted by Music_Producer (Post 3037481) Thebear.. such websites promtoting these services are everywhere. I would absolutely avoid them. The methods I use - always, always work. Sure, like Shard mentioned.. these sites might give some hits but usually they are like 2 or 3 while the losses will be 20. You really don't want to pay $200 or whatever every month to make losses! All of them will have a substantial 'proven track record' Thats bull****. I can bet that if you looked at their real records they would all have major losses. So stay away from those.. or, if you have money to spend.. you can try such services.
I agree - good advice. :cool:

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Originally Posted by Music_Producer (Post 3037481) Shard.. I did have the one click option set.. so when i hit 'sell' it executed in one click. Then i clicked on 'new' and then i hit 'buy' to close the trade.. but nothing happened.. so i hit 'buy' again. Then it executed. I tried the demo right now and the same thing.. lol, maybe i have a special cmc account :D
Haha, maybe then. ;) I'll have to pay more attention myself then. Ah well, regardless at least now you know for sure.
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Originally Posted by Music_Producer (Post 3037481) Ad yes, don't trade the CAD at all when there are other announcements.. come on, you know the world ignores the CAD :p just kidding.. seriously though.. the CAD won't move.. or might even move in the opposite direction when another USD news is going on.. because the entire world trades $, and unfortunately not CAD $ that much. When there's 1 trillion US $ being bought/sold.. 1 million CAD $ just won't break that kind of USD volume to create any fancy moves.
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I only trade the USD/CAD when there is no other report at that time (or its a *very* minor report)
Yep, as I said, a lesson learned for next time. Thanks again for the insight. :cool:
~Shard~
11-10-2006 10:43 AM
So what are your thoughts Music_Producer on doing carry trading with the AUD/JPY right now? It seems to have backed off a bit, and with the recent news (on both sides) and so forth I was wondering if you still liked it or not. Just curious. :)
Hoef
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11-10-2006 03:45 PM
Originally Posted by ~Shard~ (Post 3039925) So what are your thoughts Music_Producer on doing carry trading with the AUD/JPY right now? It seems to have backed off a bit, and with the recent news (on both sides) and so forth I was wondering if you still liked it or not. Just curious. :)
Indeed, I am 40 pips in the minus .... I'll leave it but it's getting iffy
~Shard~
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11-10-2006 04:41 PM
Originally Posted by Hoef (Post 3040935) Indeed, I am 40 pips in the minus .... I'll leave it but it's getting iffy
I assume you are also aware of the recent Japanese news which I eluded to above, regarding how Japan may raise its interest rate again? That would probably bring down that currency pair as well at least to some degree...
Music_Producer
11-11-2006 01:02 AM
I haven't touched AUD/JPY or GBP/JPY.. I did have a feeling that AUD/JPY would drop a bit.. to maybe 90 and then go back up. But please, don't take any of my advice :) You also have to take into account that oil prices have fallen big time, so the Yen benets from that. If oil goes back to $70 a barrel the Yen will get hammered.. and you should see AUD going up to maybe 94. Hoef, there have been times when I've bought AUD/JPY at like 86 or so.. and then it dropped to 83 in a few days.. making me go absolutely nuts. Eventually though, it went back up to 86 and I sold it off. And then it just kept going up. Here's what I look out for.. massive drops.. and then i rush in to buy. For e.g. that GBP/JPY dropped 135 pips in 2 hours or less.. and I bought tons of GBP/JPY. If it had dropped more I would have been screwed..
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but obviously it corrected.. and I made a substantial prot.. plus made interest. Remember to offset your losses by trading the news as well. That will keep your balance +ve and at the same time you're making interest as well.
~Shard~
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11-11-2006 07:57 AM
Originally Posted by Music_Producer I haven't touched AUD/JPY or GBP/JPY.. I did have a feeling that AUD/JPY would drop a bit.. to maybe 90 and then go back up. But please, don't take any of my advice :) You also have to take into account that oil prices have fallen big time, so the Yen benets from that. If oil goes back to $70 a barrel the Yen will get hammered.. and you should see AUD going up to maybe 94.
Yep, there's many factors at play. Everything affects everything else. ;) As I stated previously, you can also use Gold as an indicator - it has a direct negative correlation with the USD. I see Gold pulling back a little from its current levels, but as long as it doesn't break support (in the low $600s) then it's off to the races! Gold broke above a triangle pattern last week, as can be seen from this chart I grabbed at the time. Next resistance is just below $680. Thereafter, resistance is $725. :cool:
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Originally Posted by Music_Producer Hoef, there have been times when I've bought AUD/JPY at like 86 or so.. and then it dropped to 83 in a few days.. making me go absolutely nuts. Eventually though, it went back up to 86 and I sold it off. And then it just kept going up.
Yeah, that can get quick rough on the nerves! :eek: ;) As long as it goes back up, that's ne, but there's
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always the danger of getting margin called before that happens and having your account wiped out - and then some.
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Originally Posted by Music_Producer Here's what I look out for.. massive drops.. and then i rush in to buy. For e.g. that GBP/JPY dropped 135 pips in 2 hours or less.. and I bought tons of GBP/JPY. If it had dropped more I would have been screwed.. but obviously it corrected.. and I made a substantial prot.. plus made interest. Remember to offset your losses by trading the news as well. That will keep your balance +ve and at the same time you're making interest as well.
Sound advice. (Hmm, pardon the pun... ;)) If you can capitalize on quick and signicant movements, that's great, but you have to be careful because then in some cases, you're essentially "trading blind" - in other words, you're trading not based on any fundamentals, but based on what you think will happen - and always remember that no one can predict the markets. That's why trading on the news is so important - you're trading on actual facts, and yes there can be surprises from time to time, but you can never go to wrong trading in that manner, as opposed to what others would call "educated guessing". ;) :cool: And don't get me wrong, I trade on quick movements like that as well at times, and based on technical analysis, but I always try and look at the big picture and do not just buy and sell because I received an indicator telling me to do so. ;)
Music_Producer
11-11-2006 01:27 PM
Yep Shard.. I always trade the news usually.. but when there's a big drop .. I get tempted and jump in :D Of course, I use a very small lot and employ a stop loss as well..so if things go the opposite way.. I am not affected much. Thing is.. at times, you tend to get a little greedy and get tired of waiting for the news.. you're like 'Why should i make money just a few times a month? I want to make it everyday!' That's essentially a big mistake of course. Those impulsive trades that I do carry out are very rare. Btw, on a funny note.. when I opened my account at CMC the salesperson asked me ' Who recommended CMC markets to you?" and I replied 'Oh, Shard did.. I mean.. er.. this friend on an online forum' Lol :p
~Shard~
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11-11-2006 01:51 PM
Originally Posted by Music_Producer (Post 3043439) Yep Shard.. I always trade the news usually.. but when there's a big drop .. I get tempted and jump in :D Of course, I use a very small lot and employ a stop loss as well..so if things go the opposite way.. I am not affected much. Thing is.. at times, you tend to get a little greedy and get tired of waiting for the news.. you're like 'Why should i make money just a few times a month? I want to make it everyday!' That's essentially a big mistake of course. Those impulsive trades that I do carry out are very rare.
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I know exactly what you mean. I actually gave in to those impulses yesterday myself. I was just sitting at my computer desk, doing stuff on my Mac and watching CMC on my PC. I saw that the EUR/USD was uctuating quite a bit, so when it dropped about 4 pips in succession, I popped in with a 50,000 lot and sold it a few seconds later for a 2 pip gain. ;) It was more of a fun trade, since I only made enough money for lunch that day, but still... :)
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Originally Posted by Music_Producer (Post 3043439) Btw, on a funny note.. when I opened my account at CMC the salesperson asked me ' Who recommended CMC markets to you?" and I replied 'Oh, Shard did.. I mean.. er.. this friend on an online forum' Lol :p
Haha, that is pretty funny. :D Hmm, wonder if they're going to try and nd a "Shard" in their system now... ;)
Music_Producer
11-14-2006 05:36 AM
Great trade today! Bagged 26 pips today on CMC :D The US reports.. well *all* of them were bad.. ppi, retail sales, ex auto, etc.. so it was a no-brainer.. bought gbp/usd rightaway.. damn thing has climbed up by 20 more pips after I got out.
~Shard~
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11-14-2006 08:49 AM
Originally Posted by Music_Producer (Post 3052981) Great trade today! Bagged 26 pips today on CMC :D The US reports.. well *all* of them were bad.. ppi, retail sales, ex auto, etc.. so it was a no-brainer.. bought gbp/usd rightaway.. damn thing has climbed up by 20 more pips after I got out.
Glad CMC did the trick for you again Music_Producer! Unfortunately I was a little slow this morning and my hesitation cost me several pips. :( Basically, I saw the news come out, saw the spike and was about to click BUY when I had that brief second of doubt that maybe I had missed the spike and "if I buy right now I'm getting in at the top of the correction", i.e. that I had missed the boat. ;) At that point the EUR/USD had already shot up 20 pips (from 30 to 50), but I quickly acted as I knew I should and bought anyway at 53, selling at 60 for 7 pips. So, nowhere near how much I could have (should have!) made, but a gain nonetheless and another trade which I'm chocking up to experience - after all, I've only executed about 6 trades so far in my life! ;) :D Hopefully my speed and condence will increase the more I trade and in a year or so I'll be at the position you are Music_Producer. :) How long have you been doing this, by the way? Anyway, what's the next trade you have your eye on? The US CPI announcement on Thursday? Expecting more of the same?
~Shard~
11-14-2006 08:56 AM
A question for you - what are your thoughts on hedging a trade like this morning's with 2 currency pairs? I realize the risk, but am curious if you have ever thought of doing this. As an example. The expectation was that the US #s would probably be weaker. So, what if you bought EUR/USD before the announcement to try and capture the full gain, as much as possible, and then to hedge
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this, you sat with the trade window open for the GBP/USD pair and your mouse over the SELL button? If the report comes out as expected, you've gotten in before the spike and made a lot of pips, but if it goes the opposite way, you could close out your EUR/USD position immediately for a loss and also sell the GBP/USD to make some money that way (and hopefully end up ahead). Any thoughts?
~Shard~
Gold & Oil
11-14-2006 09:14 AM
I'm looking at buying the December contract for Gold very soon and holding until sometime in December. I commented on this a few days ago... Oil is looking very attractive right now as well. One model I use for commodities like this is seasonality. Of course you need to take other things into consideration, but it is a very solid model on its own. Take a look at this chart :
As I've illustrated above, the best period of seasonal strength for crude oil is roughly from the end of November to the end of March, give or take. Crude oil has gained in ve of the past ve periods with an
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average gain per period of around 17% - pretty decent. Seasonality for crude oil prices has changed slightly over the years though - normally, ten years of data is used in seasonality studies, however an exceptional advance by the price of crude oil from around $27 USD to $80 USD during the past three years has skewed the data. Anyway, that's seasonality. From a techncial perspective, signs of a bottom in the price of crude oil have also appeared. Crude oil is trying to bounce from its October 31st low at $57 USD per barrel. Its long term trend remains upward and long term support is at $56 USD per barrel. Resistance is at its all time high (around $79.80 USD). Short term momentum indicators (I use MACD, RSI and stochastics) have turned higher from oversold levels and as a result, the initial upside technical target during the current period of seasonal strength is $66-$70 USD per barrel. There's denitely some money to be made there! On the fundamental side, which you always have to look at as well, a balance between supply and demand seems to be returning in my opinion. OPEC has said they will reduce production during the lower demand season between summer and winter, and as you probably heard in the news, they recently reduced production by 1.2M bpd. Oil inventories in the US have started to fall from record levels and seasonal demand in the US will increase as the winter heating season approaches. Personally, I expect demand this winter to be higher than last winter, which was the warmest winter in the past decade. maybe this winter will surpass it, but I have my doubts. Meanwhile, rising demand for oil by nations such as China and India appears to be having an impact. From the latest reports I've read, China is planning to start lling its long term storage facility in 2007. And as always, geopolitical events also will continue to inuence prices and I don't see those going away anytime soon. ;) :cool: Anyway, just some info for anyone who's interested. I'm by no means a Forex expert yet like Music_Producer, so I thought I might as well contribute in my own way. :cool:
Music_Producer
11-14-2006 02:29 PM
Hey Shard, you had a good trade too! Even a 1 pip prot is excellent.. remember, it's the total pips we make that counts. If you made a pip a day and that 1 pip was $100.. that's $3000 a month. Obviously we make more (and could lose too) pips than that. Hedging.. well no one would be fast enough to close one position and open another.. within half a second! What you could do is.. open the eur/usd .. say 'buy' and employ a stop loss of 10 pips. And sell gbp/usd at the same time and employ the same stop loss. So if the usd goes up.. and eur/usd moves down.. it will hit the stop loss and close.. while the gbp/usd you can sell for whatever prot. I don't like doing this though.. because of all the whipsaws that take place before any report. I've tried it on demo accounts and while some trades have been fantastic.. majority of them hit the stop losses before the reports.. and then what if the report is as expected.. so the currency doesn't move much? You'll hit a stop loss of 10 pips on one pair.. and make a prot of 5 pips on the other.. still netting a loss. But it's denitely worth a try.. do it on your demo account rst of course.. and see if you are comfortable with that strategy. Damn, oil was $20 a barrel? :eek: Man these OPEC people are so greedy.. but yeah, you are right about energy costs rising during the winter.. well look at all our heating bills and all that as well. 17% a year is very attractive indeed. Somehow I can't nd oil and metals and stuff in my cmc account.. perhaps US residents can't trade that or i'm just a dimwit. Ahh i'll look for it later. For tomorrow, its the Empire Manufacturing Index.. that should be an important report (if it deviates) I like trading the GBP during the UK repors (usually at 4.30 am EST) because the GBP/USD almost always moves everytime. Oops to answer your other question.. I have been doing this news strategy since the last 4-5 months. The rst few months that i did forex (in 2005) I lost all my money because i used to trade on gut feeling and
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charts.. kinda like trading blindly! Lost $3000 and was so pissed off that i gave up.. but came back and recovered all my money and more :D
~Shard~
11-14-2006 07:36 PM
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Originally Posted by Music_Producer (Post 3054952) Hey Shard, you had a good trade too! Even a 1 pip prot is excellent.. remember, it's the total pips we make that counts. If you made a pip a day and that 1 pip was $100.. that's $3000 a month. Obviously we make more (and could lose too) pips than that.
Yep, I'm denitely not complaining. After all, you can't get greedy, or else, well, bad things happen. ;)
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Originally Posted by Music_Producer (Post 3054952) Hedging.. well no one would be fast enough to close one position and open another.. within half a second! What you could do is.. open the eur/usd .. say 'buy' and employ a stop loss of 10 pips. And sell gbp/usd at the same time and employ the same stop loss.
Yeah, it was just a thought. As you say, I might try it on my demo account and see.
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Originally Posted by Music_Producer (Post 3054952) Damn, oil was $20 a barrel? :eek: Man these OPEC people are so greedy.. but yeah, you are right about energy costs rising during the winter.. well look at all our heating bills and all that as well. 17% a year is very attractive indeed. Somehow I can't nd oil and metals and stuff in my cmc account.. perhaps US residents can't trade that or i'm just a dimwit. Ahh i'll look for it later.
I don't know why they would limit it for US residents. For me at least, if you go to "Instruments" there should be 2 main trees you can drill down into - "CFD" and "Foreign Exchange". Under "CFD" there should be CFDs for multiple countries (Asia, Canada, Europe, Scandinavia, UK, US) and also one called "CFD Commodities". Under this one you can nd the monthly contracts for Oil, Energy, Metals, you name it. In the case of Oil check out the December contract, as the November contract expires in a couple days. I believe the outright spot prices for Gold and Silver (not sure about anything else) are in the "Foreign Exchange" section though. Basically, you're trading XAU (Gold) or XAG (Silver) against the USD, just like a currency pair (except one is a commodity). There is no expiry on spot contracts of course.
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Originally Posted by Music_Producer (Post 3054952) For tomorrow, its the Empire Manufacturing Index.. that should be an important report (if it deviates) I like trading the GBP during the UK repors (usually at 4.30 am EST) because the GBP/USD almost always moves everytime.
Cool, I'll try and be around for this trade and will try my hand at GBP/USD this time since I've done EUR/USD the past couple of times. Also, OPEC's announcement is tomorrow so I'll be listening into that one as well. Unfortunately I'll be at work for it, so I won't be able to act on anything, but after the announcement is made I'll feel condent in acting on
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Oil one way or the other. :cool:

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Originally Posted by Music_Producer (Post 3054952) Oops to answer your other question.. I have been doing this news strategy since the last 4-5 months. The rst few months that i did forex (in 2005) I lost all my money because i used to trade on gut feeling and charts.. kinda like trading blindly! Lost $3000 and was so pissed off that i gave up.. but came back and recovered all my money and more :D
Wow, I must say I'm surprised! With your knowledge and experience on the subject you come across as an "old pro" and I would have thought you had been doing this along time! I'm glad you've been able to pick it up so quickly and have such great success with it. It also gives me condence that the learning curve isn't necessarily steep and I might be trading at your level sooner rather than later myself. ;) :) That's great for you Music_Producer. So, when are we starting our own hedge fund? :D
Music_Producer
11-15-2006 03:59 AM
Shard, don't trade the GBP/USD today.. or use caution.. the GBP/USD has dropped by more than a hundred pips so far.. on bad claimant count and ination reports.. I traded it for 20 pips on cmc.. and then exited.. thinking it would stall.. but it just kept dropping. Another news report coming out at the same time (5.30 am EST) is the canadian manufacturing shipments report.. so i see that clashing with the us empire manufacturing index. I won't be trading this one - simply because there are 2 reports.. hey when we form a fund maybe you can trade one pair and myself the other :D I'm still itching to trade today.. i'll probably trade the eur/usd on the us report.. but something tells me to trade the usd/cad instead. Ahhhh ..what to do ! :eek:
~Shard~
11-15-2006 04:39 AM
Thanks for the head's up! I'll watch the trade with caution and instead focus on the EUR/USD or USD?CAD pairs... I won't force a trade if it isn't there of course. ;)
Music_Producer
Hey! What are you doing up so early? :p Just read that an 8.1 earthquake struck japan.. don't think it will affect markets though. Edit - never mind, struck north of japan.. not major cities.
11-15-2006 04:47 AM
Music_Producer
Wait.. 8.1?!! That's HUGE! :eek:
11-15-2006 04:47 AM
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Music_Producer
11-15-2006 05:36 AM
7 pips on the eur/usd (us empire survey) .. how did you do on the usd/cad? Hope it moved a bit!

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~Shard~
11-15-2006 06:47 AM
Yeah, I heard the tsunami news as well but it doesn't seem to have affected things too much - at least it hadn't this morning from what I could tell. As for the trade I didn't want to chance it so I didn't pull the pin. The Oanda news service didn't report the numbers right away, so basically I saw the EUR/USD tank and assumed the US #s were good. But I also didn't know how the CAD #s came out, so was hesitant to trade USD/CAD in case the news conicted. Afterwards I see that I still could have made some pips on either trade even after the initial spikes but, well, hindsight is always 20/20. ;) Plus, then I would have been trading on aftershocks (an appropriate term for this morning I think! ;)) not the news itself. So no trade for me this morning but I will be keeping my eye on the OPEC and FOMC announcements today and will be set to trade US CPI tomorrrow morning. That's the nice thing with forex trading - there's always another trade to be made and you know when it's going to happen. ;) :cool:
Music_Producer
11-15-2006 02:20 PM
Yeah, the US report came out much, much better than expected.. so regardless of what the CAD reports were.. the USD would have hammered it anyway, since there was broad based US$ buying. I kept switching between USD/CAD and EUR/USD every few seconds.. lol.. as I couldn't decide what to trade. Tomorrow's core CPI report is important.. but if it comes out as expected, then the unemployment claims become signicant.. in other words.. if there is a big deviation in the unemp claims.. that will move the markets. I'm looking forward to trading the GBP/USD on the UK retail sales report tomorrow. What I have noticed about the GBP/USD is.. that if a report is good/bad.. the GBP/USD moves in one direction.. and keeps going that way until the US session opens. So when i got out last night for 20 pips on the UK trade.. I could have stayed in the trade and grabbed 150 pips. This is, of course, what I have noticed so far.. things could always change.
~Shard~
11-15-2006 02:41 PM
Yep, I'll be watching the CPI and unemployment #s as well. As for the UK retail #s, I didn't have that one on my radar screen, so thanks for the head's up. Depending what time it is for me, I'll see if I'll be available to trade it or not. ;) If not, then bag a couple pips for me! :D
Hoef
11-15-2006 07:45 PM
Music_producer & ~Shard~ .... What is your take on CMC after using it for a while with the use of oanda news, and / or multiple other screens? I like the idea of potentially trading other commodities.
Music_Producer
11-16-2006 01:08 AM
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CMC is very good when it comes to spreads, and their execution. I don't like their ordering system though.. when you hit buy or sell.. you then have to click 'new' and then close the position. It should be a one-click procedure. Also, on their website it states that you can get multiple logins for one account (so i can have 2 screens open.. and hit buy/sell without hitting 'new') But when i emailed them, i got a at out 'sorry, we cannot offer multiple logins unless there are exceptional circumstances'! Whatever! :confused: So I still make prots on CMC, but it could be better..secounds count in forex. so I still like oanda's trading procedure.. but i love cmc's spreads.. ahhh.. man.. all Cmc have to do is make everything simplied.. or allow 2 logins per account and I would leave Oanda rightaway. Oh, for carry trades, oanda is the best Additionally, Hoef, I hope your AUD/JPY is not in a loss anymore.. its steadily come up now.. its at 90.45 right now.. I don't know what levels you bought it at but hopefully you can close the position for a prot (or break even) and you'll have earned interest.
Music_Producer
11-16-2006 05:35 AM
Grabbed 12 pips on the UK retail sales report, and 7 pips on the US CPI report.. CMC hiccuped a bit during the US report.. and i had to click twice.. so lost quite a few pips.. but good prot nonetheless. US cpi came out worse than expected. Anyway, more data coming in in half an hour
~Shard~
11-16-2006 06:43 AM
Grabbed 10 pips this morning - very happy with myself! :D I still don't have quite the dexterity you must have though Music_Producer - I'm trying to act as fast as I possibly can, yet still always seem to miss the majority of the initial spike. ;) Ah well, all in good time... So further to this, do you always wait until the news actually comes out, or if it lags the spike by even a little bit, do you ever just trade on the spike, assuming what the news was? It seems like if I wait for the news ashes, then by the time it takes me to digest them and execute a trade, it's almost too late. Did you trade the UK Retail #s this morning? It was at 3:30 AM for me, so this time I chose sleep over trading - maybe next time... ;) And I agree with you about CMC - good in many respects, but could be improved. Oanda has many advantages over it, so for me at least, I will continue to use both for my trading needs. :cool: Music_Producer, did you nd the Commodities section in your platform?
Music_Producer
11-16-2006 01:41 PM
Hey Shard, I think I am quicker because I trade as soon as I hear the news.. maybe you trade on the spike. Also, CMC does not execute rightaway.. remember on Oanda how I used to get in before the spike? It doesn't happen with CMC.. there's a lag of 2, sometimes - 3 seconds.. and then my order gets executed. Then i click 'new' and exit the trade.. but I do lose quite a number of pips this way. Also, I think I am right - CMC doesn't let US residents trade with other commodities.. I simply cannot nd oil, etc. I remember signing up with Saxo .. and they had a little notice where it stated that I couldn't trade commodities. I am sure CMC allows trading gold and silver though.
~Shard~
11-16-2006 04:47 PM
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Originally Posted by Music_Producer (Post 3063079) Hey Shard, I think I am quicker because I trade as soon as I hear the news.. maybe you trade on the spike.
Do you use the Oanda news service then, or one that is faster? I'll pay more attention during my next trade, but with Oanda's service at least it seems as though the news happens either simultaneously with the resultant spike or even a fraction of a second afterwards. <shrug>
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Originally Posted by Music_Producer (Post 3063079) Also, CMC does not execute rightaway.. remember on Oanda how I used to get in before the spike? It doesn't happen with CMC.. there's a lag of 2, sometimes - 3 seconds.. and then my order gets executed. Then i click 'new' and exit the trade.. but I do lose quite a number of pips this way.
Yeah, I have noticed that too. It executes quickly, but not instantaneously, and then of course it takes a second or so to come up with the "new" option so that you can close the trade out. Ah well, the xed spreads are still nice.... ;)
Quote:
Originally Posted by Music_Producer (Post 3063079) Also, I think I am right - CMC doesn't let US residents trade with other commodities.. I simply cannot nd oil, etc. I remember signing up with Saxo .. and they had a little notice where it stated that I couldn't trade commodities. I am sure CMC allows trading gold and silver though.
Interesting, I wonder why that is? Ah well, what can ya do I guess... So are you going to be trading the US housing starts and building permits tomorrow? I'll be watching for sure to see if there is a trade or not to be made.
Hoef
Quote:
11-16-2006 09:14 PM
Originally Posted by Music_Producer (Post 3061073) Additionally, Hoef, I hope your AUD/JPY is not in a loss anymore.. its steadily come up now.. its at 90.45 right now.. I don't know what levels you bought it at but hopefully you can close the position for a prot (or break even) and you'll have earned interest.
Yeah it has come back ... but all in all I took a 20 pips loss. Recovering slightly couple of pips at a time (made only 3 today on the CPI but happy anyway). Your account and how you lost big time in the beginning was quite motivating. Thanks for sharing!
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Music_Producer
11-17-2006 02:14 AM
Yeah Hoef.. it's happened to me before.. I would make 5-10 pips prot everyday.. and then wham! a 40 pip loss .. just to wipe out everything i'd made.. heh. You'll get all your pips back soon. Shard.. i might trade the usd housing starts but i'm so darn sleepy right now. I went to bed at 7 am yesterday.. got maybe 4 hours of sleep.. so I'm not sure if I'll be able to stay up till 5.30 am :p After 4 am, it gets really tough! Should be a good trade though.. according to me, well the housing starts should obviously be a negative number.. I mean, you can see it everywhere.. the housing slump. Who knows though? Everyone expected the US cpi to come out positive.. and it didn't. I'm more condent of a negative housing number though.
nhallmark
Hi,
12-01-2006 08:49 AM
I saw this thread a few weeks ago and I've read through all the pages, just learning so much. Im starting to get it. I spent the past two weeks just playing with the demo account and I've had some success. It seems like the key to make this work is not just making money, but knowing WHY I made money and the more I do it and learn the more condent I get, regardless of whether I made a prot or a loss, because I know WHY, either way. Thank you Music_Producer, Shard, Curren~sea, and everyone else for providing all this information for the rest of us. I truly appreciate it, Nathan P.S. Is there a forex dictionary anywhere, online or off, that would tell me the denitions of PCE, etc. and what it means? Forexfactory gives a description sometimes, but other times they dont and so I dont know whether a high or low # is good or bad. Thanks
~Shard~
12-01-2006 12:39 PM
Glad you found the thread useful nhallmark. :) As for a forex dictionary, I don't know of one offhand. You could either Google for one, or try a site like Investopedia. :cool: Apologies on being away from this thread for a while. In the last couple of weeks I have made some money on buying EUR/USD, a couple AUD/JPY carry trades, lost money a couple times too :o and made money buying the December Oil contract at $59 and selling at $62. In the upcoming weeks I will be shorting the NASDAQ100, S&P500 and DJIA30 and they are all well overdue for a correction (might not happen to the New Year though due to tax implications). The Blow Off phase is almost complete and if history repeats itself (as it has with previous Blow Offs) the Blow Down phase will be imminent and protable. :cool:
Hoef
Quote:
12-01-2006 09:08 PM
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Originally Posted by ~Shard~ (Post 3109973) Glad you found the thread useful nhallmark. :) As for a forex dictionary, I don't know of one offhand. You could either Google for one, or try a site like Investopedia. :cool: Apologies on being away from this thread for a while. In the last couple of weeks I have made some money on buying EUR/USD, a couple AUD/JPY carry trades, lost money a couple times too :o and made money buying the December Oil contract at $59 and selling at $62. In the upcoming weeks I will be shorting the NASDAQ100, S&P500 and DJIA30 and they are all well overdue for a correction (might not happen to the New Year though due to tax implications). The Blow Off phase is almost complete and if history repeats itself (as it has with previous Blow Offs) the Blow Down phase will be imminent and protable. :cool:
Yeah the AUD/JPY trade has been quite protable lately .... I thought historically the lull is in April - May time frame?
~Shard~
Quote:
12-02-2006 01:35 PM
Originally Posted by Hoef (Post 3111250) Yeah the AUD/JPY trade has been quite protable lately .... I thought historically the lull is in April May time frame?
I am not aware of a historic lull for the AUD/JPY currency pair at all, let alone during the above timeframe, but then again, I'm new to all this, so that could be the case I suppose! ;) I would assume there would be too many economic factors at play though for this to occur on a consistent basis, but I'll put on my charting analysis hat and see what I can nd...
Hoef
Quote:
12-02-2006 03:46 PM
Originally Posted by ~Shard~ (Post 3112855) I am not aware of a historic lull for the AUD/JPY currency pair at all, let alone during the above timeframe, but then again, I'm new to all this, so that could be the case I suppose! ;) I would assume there would be too many economic factors at play though for this to occur on a consistent basis, but I'll put on my charting analysis hat and see what I can nd...
Sorry ~Shard~ I ment a lull in stocks
Music_Producer
Hey, I'm back! Wait for me :p
12-02-2006 04:12 PM
Been away on a trip to meet my best friends in Washington.. and it was a bloody mess there with the winter storm. Ugh.. glad to be back home in Cali! Traded the US report on Friday for a nice 29 pips on CMC. That was, ironically the last trade I was going to
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do with CMC because of all the slippage, but it turned out to be a very good execution so maybe I'll stick with them more :D Oanda's spreads are back to 10 and I think that's good enough.. better than 15 pip spread. Now if only I could trade on both platforms. Have you guys watched the massacre of the US $ lately? Man more than 500+ pip moves on GBP/USD, EUR/USD, etc. Obviously this started off with the Chinese statement that they would be diversifying into other currencies besides the $ for their forex reserves. The same damn thing happened in 2005 when I was trading. The chinese announced some crap like that and I recall the USD dropping 300 pips in half an hour :eek: I'm in on the AUD/JPY trade currently.. Japanese ination doesn't seem to be a concern, so maybe BOJ won't raise interest rates on the Yen.. even if they do.. the AUD/JPY yield is still excellent enough for all the banks in the world to 'carry' out the carry trade. I would expect to see the AUD/JPY still go higher.. maybe 94+.. even upto 100 if the BOJ doesn't raise JPY rates. I made my rst loss on the USD/CAD pair during the CAD employment change report.. big time slippage, so my trade was executed after 4-5 seconds (while i was sweating away lol) and then the spike reversed. Made a 12 pip loss.. not a biggie but I denitely didn't like that. CAD $ behaves quite strangely at times.. :confused: Anyway, hope you guys have been trading good (as I can see Shard and Hoef have been at it) :D
Music_Producer
12-02-2006 04:21 PM
nhallmark, check out http://www.bls.gov. That's the US Department of Labor website.. they give an explanation of all these terms, but to summarize (or summarise).. If a report has anything to do with hiking/lowering interest rates, it will move the currency and.. If a report reects the strength of the economy.. it will move the currency. For e.g. Employment reports, GDP, etc. are all reective of the strength of the economy. The better the reports, the currency will move higher and vice versa. Reports like CPI, PPI would sound confusing.. because: These reports are basically measuring ination. The higher the ination, the currency should drop right? Because its bad for the economy.. but it doesnt work that way. The higher the ination.. the greater the chance of an interest rate hike.. so the currency moves up in anticipation of that rate hike. If the next few ination reports come out lower than expected.. then the markets will gure that the Feds don't need to raise the interest rates, and they might actually reduce the rates to boost the economic growth. So the USD will take a beating. Why do you think the AUD/JPY went up? Because the JPY CPI numbers came out lower than expected (ination wasn't a risk) so the markets assume that the BOJ won't raise Yen interest rates. So two types of reports for trading - economic growth indicators, and indicators that can affect an interest rate decision. And you already know *how* to make the money. These threads give quite a number of examples. The real trick is to get in before any spike.. to have your order executed instantly, and to get out quickly with your prots. That, is by far, the biggest challenge to overcome. If I worked at a bank and had access to currency trading.. geez.. I wonder what I could dp :rolleyes: :p
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~Shard~
Quote:
12-03-2006 07:23 PM
Originally Posted by Hoef (Post 3113149) Sorry ~Shard~ I ment a lull in stocks
Ah, gotcha Hoef. I think I know what you are getting at, however I was speaking specically about Blow Offs and Blow Downs - allow me to elaborate. Blow offs in the US equity market are rare, but wonderful events for investors holding US equity securities, ETFs and mutual funds. ;) Signicant gains are recorded in a relatively short period of time. Unfortunately, blow offs are followed by blow downs where gains realized during the blow offs are quickly lost. When blow offs occur at the end of an economic cycle the blow downs frequently take equity indices to below levels where the blow off started. Blow offs are characterized by a period of 2-4 months when broadly-based equity indices such as the DJIA and S&P500 move sharply higher with little or no correction. Roughly ten blow offs have been identied during the past 34 years with an average gain of 13% per period. Identifying the top of a blow off is virtually impossible. Blow offs take the market to unexpected levels on the upside. Guessing when the top has occurred can be hazardous to your nancial health - trust me, I've experienced this rsthand. ;) Technical indicators (e.g. breaking of trend lines, RSI rollovers, MACD, stochastics, etc.) are useful only after the peak has occurred. The blow down phase is to be avoided at all cost unless you plan on shorting the indicies themselves as I plan to do. ;) :D The average loss per period after the past 10 blow offs has been about 18%. Blow downs typically occur 2-6 months following blow offs. Blow downs are characterized by declining investor sentiment, technical weakness in broadly-based equity indices, a fall in the ratio of stocks in an uptrend versus a downtrend and reductions in economic and earnings estimates offered by analysts. Since I am an "investing geek" I track this stuff. :o Following is data for the past 2 blow offs and blow downs (in a messy ad hoc attempt at a chart :o ): Bottom date*** DJIA************** Top date******** DJIA ************* Percent Change Oct. 15, 1999 10,020************* Jan.14, 2000*** 11,723************ 17.0 Jan. 28, 2002** 9,618************* Mar.19, 2002** 10,635************ 10.6 Top date******** DJIA************** Bottom date*** *** DJIA********** Percent Decline Jan.14, 2000** 11,723************* Mar. 7, 2000*** * 9,796************ 16.4 Mar. 19, 2002 10,635************* Oct. 9, 2002*** * 7,286************ 21.5 In my opinion, we are experiencing a Blow Off. The DJIA and S&P500 recorded exceptional non-stop gains from mid-July until the end of November. (Specically, the DJIA added 15% and the S&P500 gained 14%.) More importantly, I think we are near the end of the Blow Off phase. Will the Blow Down phase start son? Has it started already? Impossible to say. I am seriously considering taking short positions, however I almost think things will not start to fully correct until the New Year, as many investors will not want to take money off the table and realize signicant tax gains prior to the end of the year. So, I'm aiming more for January, however that strategy could change at any time. ;) December is a traditionally weak month for the USD so I will be looking at buying more Gold (next technical target of resistance is around $675/oz), possibly shorting the DJIA, S&P500 and NDAQ100 and will keep my
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eye on buying EUR/USD and GBP/USD. Lots of opportunities to make money out there and everything is related to each other if you look close enough - or stand far enough back to see the big picture, as it were. :cool:
Hoef
12-03-2006 08:44 PM
Interesting thoughts ~Shard~ ... Funny how things come around. I used to be a more "fundamentalist" stock picker with the only use for technicals to "time" entry or departure. Now that I have been active in the FX market I am becoming more of a technical trader as of lately .... High Probability Trading by Marcel Link is suddenly very applicable. Since this became the default go to thread for all investments we might as well start a list of favorite books. Mine besides the one includes Jeremy Siegel's Stocks for the Long Run
Music_Producer
12-04-2006 05:21 AM
Shard, I think the blow down phase has already started.. or should start soon. It seems like all the news reports point to a slowing US economy.. couple that with rising interest rates and you should see the $ and the stock markets fall hard. Unless, the banks keep everything artically inated :mad:
~Shard~
Quote:
12-04-2006 05:36 AM
Originally Posted by Music_Producer (Post 3117321) Shard, I think the blow down phase has already started.. or should start soon. It seems like all the news reports point to a slowing US economy.. couple that with rising interest rates and you should see the $ and the stock markets fall hard. Unless, the banks keep everything artically inated :mad:
I agree - on both points. ;) So which trades do you see as the major ones this week? There's the AUD interest rate announcement tomorrow, US employment, non-farm payrolls... Anything related to the GBP which I can set my alarm clock for? ;)
Music_Producer
You sure you want to ruin your beauty sleep for a few pips? :p
12-04-2006 05:53 AM
Tomorrow, as far as GBP is concerned there's the Services PMI.. but the more signicant reports should be the Canadian interest rate statement (again, trade only if they either hike or lower.. if there's no change do nothing), and the big ones should be the USD non farm and ISM reports. Aussie GDP should be more important than the interest rate report (again, assuming they keep the rate the same) If they hike/lower the rate, trade accordingly.. you should see moves of 50 pips+. I've seen more movement on the AUD/NZD pair as compared to other crosses.
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~Shard~
Quote:
12-04-2006 06:46 AM
Originally Posted by Music_Producer (Post 3117364) You sure you want to ruin your beauty sleep for a few pips? :p
Haha, yeah I don't mind if it's worth my while... ;)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Music_Producer (Post 3117364) Aussie GDP should be more important than the interest rate report (again, assuming they keep the rate the same) If they hike/lower the rate, trade accordingly.. you should see moves of 50 pips+. I've seen more movement on the AUD/NZD pair as compared to other crosses.
Yeah, I have that one on my radar screen as well (Aus GDP) - do you have any predictions on that one? From what I've been reading lately quite a number of analysts are bullish on the Australian economy, so should the GDP report be positive for AUD - or perhaps more importantly, is everyone expecting the GDP report to be good? As for the AUD/NZD pair, I've never looked at it before. I think I'll add it to my "wacth list" and start tracking it. :)
nhallmark
Hi guys, I made 4 pips on USD Unit labor costs and nonfarm productivity this morning.
12-05-2006 06:31 AM
I didn't trade the CAD interest rate because it stayed the same, as Im sure you know. And Im glad I didn't-that spike went down and then straight back up! Anyway, thanks for the info and the link, Music_Producer. That claried some of it. On another note, I got a free trial for "trade the news" and it says on their site that it lasts 7 days and mine is still working after three weeks. Does anyone know what's up with that? Nathan
Music_Producer
12-05-2006 07:06 AM
Nathan, I guess you got lucky with the news trial.. just don't let them know its still working :p Beautiful day today.. made 12 pips on the GBP report, and 24 pips on the US non farm report (both on CMC markets) I wish everyday was like this :D I didn't trade the CAD either nathan.. when rates stay the same, I just prefer to stay out.. who knows what
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the heck can happen. I think the USD strength this morning was not just because of the Non farm report (wasn't that great) but mainly because the USD has been oversold.. and it was time for a little prot taking.
~Shard~
Quote:
12-05-2006 07:53 AM
Originally Posted by Music_Producer (Post 3120905) Nathan, I guess you got lucky with the news trial.. just don't let them know its still working
Yeah, I think I might have to sign up for a free trial as well - preferrably during a very busy economic week... ;) :D
Quote:
Originally Posted by Music_Producer (Post 3120905) Beautiful day today.. made 12 pips on the GBP report, and 24 pips on the US non farm report (both on CMC markets) I wish everyday was like this :D
Nice one! Glad that CMC is still working out okay for you. I just watched the trades today, didn't act. The news seemed to be a bit inconsistent, so I wasn't sure which way things would go, and then of course it was too late. ;) The EUR/USD did have a nice steady movement for a bit even after the announcement, but I felt that "the moment had passed" and wasn't about to jump in and trade on speculation. :o ;)
Quote:
Originally Posted by Music_Producer (Post 3120905) I didn't trade the CAD either nathan.. when rates stay the same, I just prefer to stay out.. who knows what the heck can happen.
Yep, my thoughts exactly - I stayed away from this one as well.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Music_Producer (Post 3120905) I think the USD strength this morning was not just because of the Non farm report (wasn't that great) but mainly because the USD has been oversold.. and it was time for a little prot taking.
Yeah, I was wondering the same thing. And that S&P and DJIA just keep climbing. Man, there's going to be some nice shorting to do on those guys when the time is right... patience... :D :cool: Unfortunately I will not be around for the AUD announcements tonight (interest rate + GDP). I'll wait until the dust settles from those and, either way, I might pop in again for a carry trade. If you don't mind me asking Music_Producer, what lot size do you carry trade with? I've only just done
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$100K so far as to minimize my risk until I feel more comfortable with the currency pair, but would love to go for more.... ;) :)
Music_Producer
12-05-2006 02:31 PM
Hey Shard, my lot size all depends on the strength of the reports. If its anything non-farm, I push it up to 500k.. GBP stuff is usually 300 k. Interest rate decisions - I have anywhere from 2 million to 3 million ready to trade. I am using smaller lots now with CMC because I'm not sure if I'll get slippage again. One thing I've noted and the good thing about CMC is, that if they cannot execute you at the market price, they'll let you know with a re-quote instead of letting you in and then showing an order executed much later at a different price. So its either a trade or no-trade situation.. which is good. Sometimes they mess up though. On Oanda I have used huge lots at times.. when the BOE surprised everyone with their interest rate hike.. I used 4 million GBP/USD. Needless to say, that was the biggest prot I've ever made..with their 5 pip spread (at the time) and instant execution :D
~Shard~
Quote:
12-05-2006 07:37 PM
Originally Posted by Music_Producer (Post 3122412) Hey Shard, my lot size all depends on the strength of the reports. If its anything non-farm, I push it up to 500k.. GBP stuff is usually 300 k. Interest rate decisions - I have anywhere from 2 million to 3 million ready to trade. I am using smaller lots now with CMC because I'm not sure if I'll get slippage again.
Cool. Yeah, I'm not there yet. :o I think next year I'll start trying larger lot sizes - obviously I'll need to dump more money into my CMC account to cover the margin requirements though... even at 100:1 you still need a fair bit to trade millions of units... ;)
Quote:
Originally Posted by Music_Producer (Post 3122412) One thing I've noted and the good thing about CMC is, that if they cannot execute you at the market price, they'll let you know with a re-quote instead of letting you in and then showing an order executed much later at a different price. So its either a trade or no-trade situation.. which is good. Sometimes they mess up though.
Yeah, this happened to me once as well. It is good, because in a way they're honoring their trade such that they aren't executing it for you at a price you did not specify. Still, it's not ideal, but I doubt you'll ever nd a perfect trading platform that gives you small xed spreads and instant execution 100% of the time. If you do, please let me know. ;) :D
Quote:
Originally Posted by Music_Producer (Post 3122412) On Oanda I have used huge lots at times.. when the BOE surprised everyone with their interest rate hike.. I used 4 million GBP/USD. Needless to say, that was the biggest prot I've ever
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made..with their 5 pip spread (at the time) and instant execution :D
Yeah, that would have been nice! I'm looking forward to trading some of those gems myself in the near future myself. Even though big announcements like that don't happen all the time, one of the nice things with forex trading is that there are always announcements to trade and you know when they are. It's not like the stock market where, apart from earnings, major announcements can come completely out of the blue and hammer or skyrocket a stock without warning. Or, only the pre-market traders can take advantage of it. :mad: ;) So do you think the USD data tomorrow will be worth trading? How about the Aussie employment data?
Music_Producer
12-05-2006 08:29 PM
Yeah Shard, I never liked stocks too much.. I mean, all your money rests in the hand of a bunch of greedy corp bigwigs who can ruin the company any time they want to! For tomorrow, I'm looking at the GBP industrial report, the US ADP report (I think last time it caused quite a move) Aussie employment report.. I'm not sure I'll be trading that, don't think I'll be home at that time. Please, please if you're going to be home.. be ready to trade the NZD.. their interest rate announcement is set to be unchanged at 7.25% but markets have a 10-20% expectation of a rate hike. If this happens, you'll see NZD going through the roof.
Music_Producer
12-06-2006 01:34 AM
Fantastic trade! The GBP report came out much worse than expected.. bagged 28 pips :D The funny thing is, everyone was expecting the UK industrial report to come out solidly positive.. so it fell hard. It went to a max of about 50 pips and now its coming up again.. but I don't think it can stay up for long.
Music_Producer
Interesting article to read: http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com...restRates.aspx
12-06-2006 01:50 AM
And I keep telling everyone that the US will still raise interest rates :p (self-gloating emotions are taking over) Edit : Shard, this could be the start of the stock market blow down/blow off? (lol) when the rates start rising again. Good times.
nhallmark
12-06-2006 06:22 AM
Err...I lost 12 pips on the AUD GDP yesterday because I traded on the m/m data and didnt even look at the y/y data.:confused: But, I learned something-y/y is more important(obviously) and if I dont understand all the factors before the trade don't trade.(duh) So, I made $110 and lost $120 yesterday-but Im learning.:) This is all in my game account, in case you're wondering.;)
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Nathan
nhallmark
12-06-2006 07:50 AM
Oh, I forgot to mention that yesterday, when I posted about my trial with Trade The News, I got an email about 20 minutes later notifying me that this was the last day of my trial and I needed to subscribe. ...so I did. I just think its funny that it kept going until I said something about it to someone else(you guys):p
nhallmark
12-06-2006 06:16 PM
Just traded the AUD employment data. I was up 10 pips and then oanda widened the pip spread to 14 and I closed at -5 pips. I should have waited until it went back down and I could have kept my pips but it could have gone down anyway, so I closed. man, that pisses me off:mad:
~Shard~
12-06-2006 06:28 PM
Sorry to hear about that Nathan. One of the benets of CMC is xed spreads, but it's not without its shortcoming as well. ;) Better luck next time! :)
nhallmark
Thanks Shard.
12-07-2006 04:56 AM
Tha GBP interest rate stayed the same this morning and the EUR interest rate moved up by 25bp which was expected so I didnt trade either of those. It would be cool, one day, to be able to go buy a forex broker, and implement xed spreads and instant execution and make it just for the mac...I just dont want the responsibility of running the company after that.:p
Music_Producer
12-07-2006 05:43 AM
That's allright nathan.. spreads will most probably widen more than the usual 10 pips especially on pairs like AUD/USD. I have seen a 25 pip spread on GBP/USD on Oanda.. I think a lot of members left Oanda on that day :D I just traded Trichet's speech.. bagged 12 pips. This was the rst time I traded a 'speech' and he was hawkish about the Euro, so the EUR/USD rose by about 30 pips or so.. I got out pretty early. I didn't trade the GBP and Eur interest rate decisions because they came out the same. I think trading this speech was fairly easy.. CMC execution was instant, and I believe even on Oanda the spreads remained small (2 pips on eur/usd) This is probably because its not really a news event.. rather just a 'direction' offered as to regarding rate cuts/hikes. Tomorrow is the notorious Non farm employment change for the USD. This report moves the currencies a lot, but it also whipsaws like nuts because of 'revisions' to previous month's data.
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nhallmark
12-07-2006 06:27 AM
I checked out CMC but for now, I'll have to stick with oanda until I've got the $2000 minimum. Do you run CMC in parallels? The only reason I can think of that they raise the spread is to cover their bandwidth charges, but if they're geting 2-3 pips already, it shouldnt matter because I doubt it costs 10 cents per trade even during news time. Maybe they're just greedy. I read that article you linked to, but Im still new to all this. I dont know whether to think "this is just some guy going off an a tangent" or "this is the overall feeling of the market". I also dont know whether the USD is just now getting to this point or whether its happened before and this was the result or if every country is always on the edge and its a constant battle to maintain stability.(im only 20 years old which is why i dont know this stuff already) So much to learn! ...its fun though.
~Shard~
12-07-2006 11:13 AM
I traded the US #s this morning and nabbed 4 pips on the EUR/USD. Nothing spectactular and only $100K, but hey, better than nothing. ;) I still want to get more experience before I start using larger lot sizes - I'll save that for next year. :cool:
Quote:
Originally Posted by nhallmark (Post 3127699) I checked out CMC but for now, I'll have to stick with oanda until I've got the $2000 minimum. Do you run CMC in parallels?
Yeah, Oanda has more granular real-time charting than CMC and a better news service so I have Oanda running on my Mac for the instant charting and news alerts, and then CMC on my PC for actual trade execution. Works quite well!
Quote:
Originally Posted by nhallmark (Post 3127699) The only reason I can think of that they raise the spread is to cover their bandwidth charges, but if they're geting 2-3 pips already, it shouldnt matter because I doubt it costs 10 cents per trade even during news time. Maybe they're just greedy.
I think it's the latter, not the former... ;)

Quote:
Originally Posted by nhallmark (Post 3127699) So much to learn! ...its fun though.
Exactly. :) Realize also that Music_Producer hasn't been doing this very long either, and I have been trading for only a couple months myself, so don't feel intimidated - in some respects, this isn't something that
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requires years and years of experience or a CFA to do. ;) Just do your research, observe, carry out your pretend trades as if it were your own real money, learn form your mistakes, and you can succeed as well. :cool:

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nhallmark
Quote:
12-07-2006 08:00 PM
I think it's the latter, not the former... ;)
LOL! I made 1/2 a pip on USD consumer credit. I thought it would move more because the numbers were way below expectations, so I traded, but afterwards it looks like it was already priced in a few mintues before.
Music_Producer
12-07-2006 08:20 PM
Nathan, that article was actually quite appropriate and well written. It's what the market is feeling.. in the sense - the thousands of banks and hedge funds all over the world. When there's a fear that the USD will keep going down, everyone starts selling .. and that just leads to panic. I remember when everyone would claim that the housing market would never 'crash' or prices would remain the same. Yeah, sure :rolleyes: That was 2 years ago, and I told a few of my friends not to get into that business.. or they'll be screwed. Needless to say, they did not heed my warning and now they're sitting with a loss of an average around $85,000+. It's just plain stupid to defy logic and be optimistic all the time especially when it comes to money! Always, always take into account the worst case scenario and act accordingly. The only way to stop the USD slide is to increase interest rates. Like the article stated, it's better to slow down the domestic US economy than risk a plunge in the $'s value internationally. If the USD keeps going down, you know how much more everything will cost? That will slow down the economy more than a series of interest rate hikes. Everything you buy (almost everything) comes from China. If the US dollar keeps going down in value compared to the Chinese Yuan, all the stuff you buy from Walmart to Apple.. will get more expensive..not to mention oil. This will lead to people spending less money.. and just becomes a vicious cycle. Now, China can obviously step in (because they want the US to buy more chinese goods for their own economy's sake) and either reduce the value of their own currency.. or buy billions of USD to make the USD go up. Funny, isn't it? You can't predict where the $ will go. Common sense and fundamentals state that it should go down.. but nancial entities.. indeed entire countries might not want that happening. So the $ might go up. It's a very delicate situation. The USA is basically a consumer nation now.. while China is the supplier (well, other countries too) You want to keep the consumer happy and you want him to buy more products.. so it's in your best interest to lower your currency value or increase the consumer's buying power. This is why I do short term trades (few seconds) I never risk any long-term trades because I have no way of
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predicting where a currency will be after a few weeks or months.
Music_Producer
12-08-2006 05:00 AM
Ok, half an hour to go for the NFP. Remember to trade a small lot, this thing whipsaws.. and you can lose quite a bit if the spike goes the opposite way (due to revisions or just plain insanity) I have considered not trading this report quite a few times, but I think I'll jump in.. simply for the adrenaline rush!
Music_Producer
12-08-2006 05:35 AM
25 pips baby!!!! :D :D :D Man, NOW I wish I had traded a bigger lot.. heh! Good week.. very good week. How did you guys do? PS - GBP showing strength but keeps getting smacked down. I am so tempted to trade on these spikes.. but that can wipe out my prots so I just shut the platform down.
nhallmark
I just watched it. I wanted to trade but it freaks out like you said. Thanks for the elaboration on that article, Music_Producer. It makes more sense now. I guess Im going to watch US consumer sentiment at 9am and then Im done for the week.
12-08-2006 05:43 AM
Music_Producer
12-08-2006 05:59 AM
Yeah, look at where it is now.. GBP/USD went up by more than a 100 pips after 15 minutes (100 pips in 12 minutes)!! Hence, trade for only a few seconds.. not more. Obviously some banks who didn't want their GBP/USD trades to get stopped out.. stepped in and bought a ton of GBP. Geez, they must have bought millions to make that spike go up by 100 pips. The NFP this time though, wasn't that crazy as it usually is.
nhallmark
12-08-2006 06:22 AM
I was watching EUR/USD but I just compared the charts and theyre roughly the same, so I guess it doesnt matter either way.
Quote:
The NFP this time though, wasn't that crazy as it usually is.
Yeah, it was just crazy at rst. Every time I thought "oh i should sell but it could go up" it did, and then back down, up, etc. and it was about 5 pips every time. glad I didnt trade. Im learning not to trust my "instincts" with this and its wierd because every time I trade on logic, I make make money and when I trade on "feeling" I lose money-every time. -just like you said at the beginning of this thread.
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~Shard~
Urgh, how frustrating! But what a rush... :D
12-08-2006 06:39 AM
Well, I experienced my rst requote with CMC this morning and honestly, I!m not faulting them, as things were moving at stupid speeds this morning. ;) Anyway, I traded the EUR/USD and GBP/USD (perhaps biting off more than I could chew...) Made money on the EUR/USD (of course) however my SELL order didn!t take on the GBP/USD to close out my trade, and it just happened to be when it was on one of the initial down swings! :eek: So, instead of bagging a few pips (this was all before things sky-rocketed afterwards) I was down on that trade. And then, honestly, a bit of panic set in my trade wasn!t closed when it should have been, it was now dropping since it was actually still open, and I needed to bring up a new trade window as I saw my money going down each second! :o I closed out the trade and luckily only ended up down $350. But, this wiped out my prots from my EUR/USD trade. :( Normally this wouldn!t bug me as much, however it!s more frustrating than anything since the currency pairs spiked huge afterwards (100 pips!) If only I would have stayed in my GBP/USD trade I would have made my loss back and then some! ;) But, hindsight is always 20/20, and it could have just as easily gone the other way. I did have a fun ride on the EUR/USD afterwards though, and made back some of my loss - I rode it from 280 to about 312 and got the f*ck out of Dodge. I was only trading a $50K lot at that time though to minimize my risk, as I know trading those spikes is chaotic at best. So, as I said, a bit frustrating since I know I could have made way more money, but there!s always next time. ;) Oh, and I was only initially trading $50K GBP/USD and $100K EUR/USD small lot sizes in case, well, things like this happen. :o ;) But, I!m getting more and more experienced each trade, am learning each time and am ne with having a few losses initially if it will make me better (and protable) in the long run. It!s all about attitude and not letting your emotions get the better of you. If something is worth doing, it!s worth doing wrong initially so that you can learn how to do it right. :cool:
Music_Producer
12-08-2006 03:18 PM
Phew.. you didn't get slaughtered that bad Shard.. you could have been pulled down a 100 pips.. believe me, NFP reports are nuts. Seriously though, NFP should not be traded. Not even with small lots. It's not worth risking all the prots made on other trades, and then wiping them out with one NFP trade. I have seen it happen every time.. NFP moves are always wild. People who 'straddle' get their stop losses hit within the rst 2 seconds.. all the time. I got lucky that my order was accepted and I got out fast (and that it didn't spike up fast enough) Why trade something so volatile when there are so many other easy trades? :)
~Shard~
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12-08-2006 05:39 PM
Originally Posted by Music_Producer (Post 3132227) Phew.. you didn't get slaughtered that bad Shard.. you could have been pulled down a 100 pips.. believe me, NFP reports are nuts. Seriously though, NFP should not be traded. Not even with small lots. It's not worth risking all the prots made on other trades, and then wiping them out with one NFP trade. I have seen it happen every time.. NFP moves are always wild. People who 'straddle' get their stop losses hit within the rst 2 seconds.. all the time. I got lucky that my order was accepted and I got out fast (and that it
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didn't spike up fast enough) Why trade something so volatile when there are so many other easy trades? :)
Yeah, as I said, I chock it up to experience - perhaps I will just be an observer next month. :o ;) As you say, when there are easier trades out there, it's probably best just to stick to those. :cool: So what's on your radar screen for next week? UK PPI/CPI? FOMC Meeting on Tuesday? (How do you think that will go?) US Sales and CPI later in the week? I'll also be watching the OPEC meeting Thursday...
GnarleyMarley87
12-08-2006 06:09 PM
What would be the best place to practice forex? forex.com? I've been "virtual trading" with optionsXpress for about a year now. I really want to start for real, but am just a little hesitant. I'm not too sure about what I'm doing. I need some condence. Anyone got any suggestions?
~Shard~
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12-08-2006 06:50 PM
Originally Posted by GnarleyMarley87 (Post 3132649) What would be the best place to practice forex? forex.com? I've been "virtual trading" with optionsXpress for about a year now. I really want to start for real, but am just a little hesitant. I'm not too sure about what I'm doing. I need some condence. Anyone got any suggestions?
You can practice right on Oanda if you like. Just set up a practice account and they will fund your account with $100K in play money (or some stupid amount) and there you go! As has been said many times in this thread though, I cannot stress enough how you have to treat that play money as real money - your real money. Only then will you truly benet from practice trading. Don't do anything in your practice account that you wouldn't do with your own hard-earned money. Trust me, it will benet you in the long run. :cool: And if you have any questions which have not been answered in this thread yet, feel free to post them and we'll do our best to answer them. :)
GnarleyMarley87
12-08-2006 07:00 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ~Shard~ (Post 3132727) You can practice right on Oanda if you like. Just set up a practice account and they will fund your account with $100K in play money (or some stupid amount) and there you go! As has been said many times in this thread though, I cannot stress enough how you have to treat that play money as real money - your real money. Only then will you truly benet from practice trading. Don't do anything in your practice account that you wouldn't do with your own hard-earned money. Trust me, it will benet you in the long run. :cool: And if you have any questions which have not been answered in this thread yet, feel free to post them and we'll do our best to answer them. :)
Awesome man. Thanks a lot. I've made close to $4,000 in "vurtual" money with optionsXpress. I kind of had an idea of what I was doing, but not really. I'd just like to make a nice little side income. I go to school full-time and have a part time job on the weekends. I just got done paying my Spring tuition today and my checking account is looking a little bare. I'd like to use a good majority of the money I pull in from my fairly well paying pt to invest a little. Still have enough left so that even if I don't succed at rst I won't be hurting too bad. Anyway, thanks again.:)
~Shard~
Not a problem at all.
12-08-2006 07:38 PM
Again though I cannot stress how careful and disciplined you have to be when doing this type of trading. Many people make lots of money in their practice accounts because they are a little more cavalier about things and aren't treating things seriously enough. And I'm not saying that this is the case with you, but I do want to warn you that forex trading isn't easy - the only easy part is losing money. And it does concern me when you say you "kind of had an idea of what you were doing" - to me, that sets off a huge red ag. I would suggest being a bit more careful, honest and smarter with your trades. I only say this because I don't want to see you get margin called. :cool: Further to this, if you are still unsure of many aspects of forex trading, if you do not understand basic economics or nancial models and theories, then I would advise you not to put your own money on the line. In general, whether it's this type of investing or playing around on the stock market, it basically ends up being educated gambling, and with that in mind you should never put more on the line than you're willing to lose. (It's what I do at the poker tables as well.) In your situation, you'll have to decide how much that is obviously myself and Music_Producer are in a different nancial situation than yourself, so please bear that in mind. You also need to identify your risk tolerance and how well you can avoid becoming emotionally affected by high-pressure trading. It's not easy, trust me. :cool: I would recommend you read this entire thread for starters, but also do a lot of your own research as well and become educated. Trying a practice account is denitely the best way to start. And as I said, if you have questions and so forth, just let us know. I am not trying to lecture you or scare you off - I am simply looking out for your best interests. :cool:
GnarleyMarley87
12-08-2006 09:26 PM
Once again, thanks Shard. I'll be the rst to admit I'm not the most educated person when it comes to investing. I do have a business oriented mind and some common sense if that helps. I think I'm just going to
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stick to the practicing for a few more months and see where I am nancially and then reconsider doing it for real.
~Shard~
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12-08-2006 09:33 PM
Originally Posted by GnarleyMarley87 (Post 3133100) Once again, thanks Shard. I'll be the rst to admit I'm not the most educated person when it comes to investing. I do have a business oriented mind and some common sense if that helps. I think I'm just going to stick to the practicing for a few more months and see where I am nancially and then reconsider doing it for real.
Your welcome, thanks for heeding my advice and not taking offense. ;) It sounds like you're approaching things the right way. Just have patience, practice for a few months as you say (or however long it takes) and continue to follow along in this thread - as you can tell, we post our trading experiences here on a frequent basis. And don't get too discouraged either - you have to start somewhere and we were all beginners at some point. Although I have been investing in stocks, commodities, CDs, trusts, you name it, for many years now and am fairly experienced with them, I'm constantly learning - and as for forex, well, I just started a few months ago myself! ;) :D :cool:
Music_Producer
12-09-2006 01:23 AM
Gnarley.. open a real account with $50.. not more. Make that into $100 - no rush .. take your own time. But, keep practicing till you get it done.. even if it means investing $50 multiple times. If you can't make that $50 into $100.. then analyze what you are doing wrong and work on it to make it right. Don't buy forex books, don't listen to other people's advice regarding what they think will happen to the Euro at 2.15 pm because their gut tells them, don't even trade according to what UBS or Barclay's or Bloomberg or whatever analyst recommends. See the news, decide accordingly.. and trade. Simple. You have a choice - to either sit in front of a computer screen all day long.. and trading and losing.. or .. by uke, making a prot. Or you can trade at news time.. make your money in a couple of seconds and live your life. :) I've read stories about people having 5 monitor setups with various charts and graphical stuff.. makes it look like a space shuttle control room! I have used one computer, with 2 monitors (simply because i don't like stuff cluttered up) On one monitor is the news screen, and the other is the trading window. I don't even have a chart open. The only time I have ever opened charts was *after* trading.. to see how the currency moved, take a screenshot.. etc. Happy trading!
~Shard~
12-09-2006 11:00 AM
Sound advice Music_Producer (hmm, I suppose that was a bad pun now that I think of it...) - that's an excellent method of learning without risking your shirt. Keep in mind though, Gnarley, that you're playing with margin, and that is a double-edged sword. Sure, maybe you'll only have $50 in your account, but that could quickly turn into a $500 loss if you are not careful - please, don't get margin called. :o ;) :cool:
Music_Producer
12-09-2006 12:28 PM
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Oops.. forgot to mention that.. Shard's right.. make that $50 into $100 - $2 at a time! Not in one trade obviously :)
Toreador93
12-09-2006 03:18 PM
Hi everyone! I found this thread a few weeks ago, read the entire thing (!), and have been watching it ever since. I briey looked at FOREX a few months ago, but couldn't nd any good explanations for trading techniques, etc. This thread has been immensely helpful in explaining things, and pointing out some other website which may help. I've opened up a practice Oanda account, but haven't been able to practice any news trades due to class schedules. Now, I'm wondering about this last statement: "Sure, maybe you'll only have $50 in your account, but that could quickly turn into a $500 loss if you are not careful - please, don't get margin called." I thought FOREX brokers had a built-in safety which prevented one from losing more money than they have in their account. In the above example, if your trade took your account under $0, it would automatically close the trade - as they can't expect someone to pay money they don't have. And I imagine collection agencies would be a hassle. Again, thank you all for such invaluable information!
~Shard~
Quote:
12-09-2006 05:55 PM
Originally Posted by Toreador93 (Post 3134887) Hi everyone! I found this thread a few weeks ago, read the entire thing (!), and have been watching it ever since. I briey looked at FOREX a few months ago, but couldn't nd any good explanations for trading techniques, etc. This thread has been immensely helpful in explaining things, and pointing out some other website which may help. I've opened up a practice Oanda account, but haven't been able to practice any news trades due to class schedules. Now, I'm wondering about this last statement: "Sure, maybe you'll only have $50 in your account, but that could quickly turn into a $500 loss if you are not careful - please, don't get margin called." I thought FOREX brokers had a built-in safety which prevented one from losing more money than they have in their account. In the above example, if your trade took your account under $0, it would automatically close the trade - as they can't expect someone to pay money they don't have. And I imagine collection agencies would be a hassle. Again, thank you all for such invaluable information!
I'm glad you have found this thread to be helpful - that's primarily what it's here for! As for the margin call, oh no, you can denitely lose your shirt. If a broker has some sort of "safety net" in place, well, okay, perhaps that will help (it would depend on the broker I guess) but trust me, a broker will have no problems whatsoever in liquidating your other positions to cover a margin call or ask you to deposit additional funds to cover your loss. And if you don't, you'll be in a world of nancial and legal hurt. Why do you think stock traders were jumping off rooftops in 1987? :cool:
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Music_Producer
12-10-2006 01:37 AM
Toreador.. if you have $50 in your account and you make a couple of bad trades with high margin.. you will keep losing till you probably have $10 left (because even that's not enough to make a trade with a high margin) For e.g. Say I have $50 and I trade EUR/USD at a 50:1 margin and buy 1000 units of EUR/USD at 1.3197. I entered the trade with the hopes of making a prot i.e eur/usd would go up.. but instead, it goes down.. way down. When it hits 1.28 I get a margin call.. i.e. my open position is automatically closed for a loss of $37. If the EUR/USD dipped further than 1.28 then you would probably go in a negative balance.. which you obviously don't have.. and they won't collect that from you. So they'll close the trade when the loss is precariously close to your account balance. I did the same mistake when i rst started trading. I had no idea what 100:1 margin meant or whatever. I started with $400 on a forex account that had 400:1 margin. So I was excited and thought 'oh wow! 400 to 1.. that means with 400 bucks i can buy 160000 $ worth of currency! woo hoo!!' Yeah.. woo hoo.. the minute i went in a loss of like 20 pips.. boom.. my position was closed and i lost $300. :p I think I spent the rest of the day going "WTF? WTF? WTF? WTF?" and driving around town with a blank look on my face. Basically.. I would trade like this.. if I have $100 in my account, I would trade with 1000 units at the most. If I had $1000.. I would go to 10,000.. and so on. Just multiply by ten (this is for eur/usd.. gbp/usd would be a lesser amount) This is till you can practice with a real live account.. whether you make a 1 cent prot or a $1000 prot.. prot is prot. You will learn how you made that prot, and why you made it. So it's good to start off small. If you are a rst timer with a $100 deposit.. start with trading only 100 units, not 1000. Once I started making prots with a few cents.. i moved on to making prots with a few dollars. Yes, I would stay up all night to make one trade.. to nab $3. Sounds like a lot of work to make a measly 3 bucks.. but that gave me the experience that I have now to make prots of hundreds of dollars.. even thousands. Now I know why NFP trades are volatile.. why the GBP can get an unexpected rate hike or cut.. how currency speeches work.. and so on. So when you see Forex brokers offering "400:1 margin!" .. be careful. You can easily get wiped out with one bad trade. Also, don't sign up with brokers that ask for a minimum trading size like 100,000 units or whatever. Safest bet is to stick with Oanda.. you can play with even $10 and trade 100 units and practice.
~Shard~
12-10-2006 06:55 AM
Once again, good advice Music_Producer. I'd like to stress though that, as I said, brokerages can indeed ask you to deposit additional funds to cover losses in some cases and it's not like all you can lose is your $50 initial investment (as an example.) Just look at what happens with short-selling on the markets and then good old companies like Amaranth. :eek: :cool:
Toreador93
12-10-2006 07:21 AM
Well thanks a lot guys! I'm glad I asked before I went ahead and lost all my money, and my shirt! Keep up the good work!
~Shard~
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12-10-2006 07:48 AM
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Originally Posted by Toreador93 (Post 3136523) Well thanks a lot guys! I'm glad I asked before I went ahead and lost all my money, and my shirt! Keep up the good work!
No problem. And yes, it especially sucks if you have a nice shirt. :p
Hoef
mobile trading platform
12-10-2006 10:50 AM
guys, are you aware of have you experience with a "mobile" trading solution? I will be traveling a lot pretty soon and hate the prospect of not having access to markets when I want to ..... I guess I am addicted :D
~Shard~
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12-10-2006 01:05 PM
Originally Posted by Hoef (Post 3136991) guys, are you aware of have you experience with a "mobile" trading solution? I will be traveling a lot pretty soon and hate the prospect of not having access to markets when I want to ..... I guess I am addicted :D
I believe CMC Markets has some type of mobile platform that allows for trading on your cell phone via a lightweight client, but I would really question the reliability of such a service. All you need is your wireless service dropping a packet or two or dropping service all together, even just for a second, and you're royally screwed. :o
Music_Producer
12-10-2006 05:04 PM
Haha Shard @ Amaranth.. morons! Sorry I didn't reply to your earlier question about the trades coming up this week.. me and the wife just adopted a kitty.. she's a year old and her name's Paris.. will post on her in another thread ..so been busy with that :p Also, i think they let you trade on margin and then take money from you.. when it comes to stocks.. not forex.. but then i could be wrong :confused: But it's best not to never come near any margin call.. and never put most of your money in one trade anyway. Yeah, I'll be trading the cpi, ppi reports for sure, the us trade balance, interest rate statement ( i feel they might raise the rates.. just a feeling) gbp retail sales, etc.
~Shard~
12-10-2006 05:17 PM
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Originally Posted by Music_Producer (Post 3137943) Haha Shard @ Amaranth.. morons!
Yep - makes me think we could run our own hedge fund better... ;) :cool:
Quote:
Originally Posted by Music_Producer (Post 3137943) Sorry I didn't reply to your earlier question about the trades coming up this week.. me and the wife just adopted a kitty.. she's a year old and her name's Paris.. will post on her in another thread ..so been busy with that :p
Cool, send me a link to the other thread when you post some pictures. :)
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Originally Posted by Music_Producer (Post 3137943) Also, i think they let you trade on margin and then take money from you.. when it comes to stocks.. not forex.. but then i could be wrong :confused:
It is denitely the case with stocks, I know that one (although as I said perhaps different brokers handle things differently...) - if you read CMC's ne print wrt margin (at least as far as share CFDs go) I believe they comment on this very thing. At any rate:
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Originally Posted by Music_Producer (Post 3137943) But it's best not to never come near any margin call.. and never put most of your money in one trade anyway.
Yep. ;)
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Originally Posted by Music_Producer (Post 3137943) Yeah, I'll be trading the cpi, ppi reports for sure, the us trade balance, interest rate statement ( i feel they might raise the rates.. just a feeling) gbp retail sales, etc.
Man, if they raise rates the EUR and GBP will get hit hard, no? Especially because I believe consensus right now is not for a rate hike, is it not? I haven't been following it too closely as of late... I'll be at work during the announcement, so I'll see if I can swing something so I can keep an eye on it... ;) Should be a fun (and hopefully protable) week! :cool:
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Music_Producer
12-12-2006 01:12 AM
The AUD/JPY carry traders are in full swing right now.. AUD/JPY has smashed through the 91.85 point. The key to a successful carry trade is to hold on to your positions and not be scared by the potential loss (if you sell at a lower price) If you are going to enter a carry trade, you need to prepare youself and be ready for a 1000 pip drop (it doesn't happen.. but prepare anyway) With a good interest rate differential, the interest positive currency will always be pushed up. Banks and hedge funds put billions of their $ in this carry trade, so when the pair goes down.. they sweat a lot more than you and I do. Coming up today is UK CPI, US trade balance and US interest rate statement (if rates are cut or hiked - do not trade if nothing is changed) Good luck!
Music_Producer
12-12-2006 01:16 AM
Hey Shard, the only reason the rates would be hiked is because of the recent dollar slide. It was kinda like a wake up call to the Feds. Most likely the rates won't be hiked.. but what the Feds will do.. is be hawkish on the US$. They will talk about ination being a risk and so on. Note that the GBP has risen against the USD by a 1000 pips :eek: from mid-november. That's a huge spike in a couple of days. If it breaks the 2.0 barrier, you might see a catastrophic dollar sell-off. So it's ok if the EUR and GBP take a beating (temporarily) In fact, the ECB (euro bank) has been doing nothing but talk about a high euro is bad for the economy.. blah blah.. trying to push the Euro down. Everyone is waiting to sell the dollar, so they need any encouraging news to push it back up.
Music_Producer
12-12-2006 01:44 AM
Massive slippage on CMC.. traded the GBP/USD for the UK CPI report.. initially my buy order went through for a prot of 28 pips. I was happy, clicked on 'sell' to close the order. Nothing happened. Waited a few seconds and my prot in $ was still moving.. so I knew the trade wasn't closed yet. I clicked 'sell' again. Tried one last time.. and then it executed. I checked my prot.. 26 pips.. ok.. as long as it's not a loss or something stupid like 6 pips. So I was checking the news, etc.. and after a minute I come back to the platform and I was bloody shocked to nd out that my 'sell' trades had gone through!! :mad: I quickly closed them for a loss of 7 pips eventually. F@cking unbelievable. I hate it when I do things right, but the platform screws me over.
~Shard~
12-12-2006 04:29 AM
Yikes, sorry to hear about that Music_Producer! :eek: :( That's really unfortunate and frustrating - especially when you "did it right" the rst time. It appears as though no platform is perfect. :o
Music_Producer
12-12-2006 04:56 AM
Actually Shard.. there are platforms that work perfectly as they should.. but they're only for fund managers and banks. You need to deposit a minimum amount (I'm sure in the millions) You can then sign up with platforms used by Bank of America, Citibank, etc.. where there is no dealing desk or any kind of crap. Maybe someday we'll do that :p I also traded GBP/USD on Oanda (very small lot) and I noticed that when i clicked on 'sell' the order didn't go through right away.. took a few seconds.. but it gave me the exact price that was quoted. CMC's platform can sure use a lot of improvements.. for e.g. if there is slippage.. or there is a pending order.. ash it on the
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screen!! They shouldn't revert back to the order window and let you enter a new order if the previous one hasn't been executed. I recovered from the 7 pip loss by trading the European ZEW sentiment .. phew! But I'd better trade cautiously for the US trade balance report. The GBP should have skyrocketed today by atleast 50-80 pips.. but it didn't.. and it came down later. I am guessing this is because of today's US interest rate decision.. the markets want an idea of how the Feds are going to strengthen/weaken the dollar's image. Hence I also see any reaction to the US trade balance data as very temporary.
Music_Producer
12-12-2006 05:33 AM
Well, looks like CMC made it up to me :D Nice 31 pip prot on the GBP/USD - Trade balance (decit) came out much lower than expected. I can sleep peacefully now!
nhallmark
12-12-2006 07:16 AM
I closed at a loss of 8 pips on the USD trade decit. I got the news at the end of the spike, so I sold EUR/USD, then it reversed. I think it reversed because of the good news with the EUR earlier this morning and because of the US interest rate announcement today...and because I got the news late so I got in late. But, Im learning!
~Shard~
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12-12-2006 07:42 AM
Originally Posted by Music_Producer (Post 3142794) Well, looks like CMC made it up to me. Nice 31 pip prot on the GBP/USD - Trade balance (decit) came out much lower than expected. I can sleep peacefully now!
Wow, nice one! Glad to see you ending up ahead when all was said and done. ;) And man, you're quick - I have to work on my speed I guess. :o ;) I traded the news as well but since I thought there wouldn't be much movement, I decided to use EUR/USD instead of GBP/USD. I know the GBP/USD moves more (on average) than the EUR/USD, but I thought that the EUR/USD might be better for me this time around since it's a 2 pip spread and not a 3 pip spread (although I realize it's not that big a difference in the grand scheme of things... ;)) Anywho, I got in and out quick, but still missed the majority of the spike - made a big old 2 pips haha! :D The funniest thing though is that I was only trading a $100K lot size, so now I have no idea what I'm going to spend my big $21 prot on... :D I'm not complaining though - a small gain is always better than a loss of any kind! Further to this though, do you know if Oanda's news service reports differently whether you are using a real account or a game account? Because for me, it seems as though the resultant spike occurs pretty much instantaneously (if not even a bit ahead!) of when the news ashes come through for me on Oanda - it really gives me zero time to process the data properly. It just seems like the news should be coming a bit quicker, otherwise I almost nd myself trading the spike rather than the #s, which isn't right. I thought the news service would be the same, but is there a chance that for their actual "paying customers" Oanda delivers a higher quality of service (i.e. faster news reports) to them rst, then the game accounts? I ask, because I have seen a couple times where Oanda will disconnect game accounts during high volume periods, presumably to be preferential to their real clients. Is tradethenews that much better? Is it worth the monthly subscription? Or is it only midly quicker? (I realize
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we're talking fractions of seconds here, but still...) Just trying to gure out the best way to capitalize on things. :) Lastly, don't worry too much nhallmark - as you say, you're learning, and the best way to learn is by doing. And as long as you learn from your mistakes, it's all good. :cool: You will see this happen on almost every trade actually, and it's not necessarily tied into a certain factor all the time - quite simply, after a huge spike, there is almost always a natural (albeit sometimes brief) correction. So, if you're late to the game, you may get in at the peak of the spike and the trend will reverse. Just keep practicing and you'll get better. I've gotten better myself over the couple months I've been doing this but still don't seem to have the lightning-fast dexterity of Music_Producer who can get in and out in a couple seconds... ;) :)
Music_Producer
12-12-2006 01:23 PM
Shard.. that lightning-fast dexterity is a result of years of examinations I had to pass (in medical school) You just get so used to answering rapidly and make quick decisions.. lol.. I think it's nally paying off now!! Oanda news is super slow compared to tradethenews..I don't think there's a difference in their news speed for real or demo accounts. Sign up for a tradethenews trial.. and when you install the software - there are 2 sections. One is text, and then there are audio channels. I prefer the audio.. that comes out 2 seconds before the text. If the trial suits you.. then it's worth the monthly fee because you're trading 100k lots. Even more worth it, obviously, when you move on to higher quantity trading. And I can give you a lot of ideas on how to spend that $21 :D
Music_Producer
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12-12-2006 01:28 PM
Originally Posted by nhallmark (Post 3143042) I closed at a loss of 8 pips on the USD trade decit. I got the news at the end of the spike, so I sold EUR/USD, then it reversed. I think it reversed because of the good news with the EUR earlier this morning and because of the US interest rate announcement today...and because I got the news late so I got in late. But, Im learning!
Yup.. well done! (Your logical analysis of what happened) Here's one more thing that actually pushed the GBP and EUR up by about 40 pips ( i think at about 4 am pst) Good old Greenspan had a few nasty comments about the dollar. He said the US should be prepared for 'years of dollar weakness' and that everyone in the world should not invest in only dollars.. they should invest in other currencies too..so the $ took a beating. Man, that guy is so honest. So take the Zew sentiment (for the Eur or UK CPI for the GBP) and greenspan's comments.. and by the way.. read my posts above (before i traded today) I have mentioned that any reaction to the US trade balance data will be *temporary* :) In other words, get in and get out fast because the spike will reverse.
nhallmark
12-12-2006 02:10 PM
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.. and by the way.. read my posts above (before i traded today) I have mentioned that any reaction to the US trade balance data will be *temporary* In other words, get in and get out fast because the spike will reverse.
Yeah, I read that after I traded, unfortunately. Oh well. Did tradethenews report greenspan's comments? I wasn't up that early. Are you guys trading US retail sales tomorrow?

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Veritas&Equitas
12-12-2006 02:17 PM
Hey, I've just been going through this whole thread and I'm really interested. The problem is, I'm of limited means. I graduated college a few years ago, and am currently in law school, but I have only a bit of money to throw around (around $5,000). Now, I was an economics major in college, but have never gone out and traded on my own...the only way I've made money is through working hours in IT or eBaying various random decent deals I can make a prot on, but nothing major (most I make is like $400-500, usually once a month or so). The thing is, I'm a decently smart guy, yet I want to do something with my money. I'm not afraid of risk ATM (I'm young, and only have a few grand to play around with), so I don't care what I get into, I'm just looking to invest/get into something where I can make a prot with some hard @$$ work. I'm willing to bust my balls for whatever it may be; I'm a hard worker, and am really interested in this. Now, I understand that FOREX may be a little over my head, given my lack of experience & funds, but I'm wondering if you guys have any other ideas or could point me in any direction to something that I could put my time/effort into to accomplish what I want to accomplish? I'm not asking for miracles here, but hopefully making a somewhat steady 17-30% prot margin on something. Granted, I wouldn't always make it, probably lose some sometimes, but in that general area. I've had friends that have sold poker chips for sweet money ($30,000 in a couple months), and I've sold some high end electronics on eBay for 25-35% prot margins a few times, but nothing really that is consistent. Any ideas would REALLY be appreciated! Thanks guys!
~Shard~
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12-12-2006 02:36 PM
Originally Posted by Music_Producer (Post 3144377) Shard.. that lightning-fast dexterity is a result of years of examinations I had to pass (in medical school) You just get so used to answering rapidly and make quick decisions.. lol.. I think it's nally paying off now!!
Nice! I guess I have no excuse then, as I'm a musician and you'd think I'd have that adeptness as well with respect to fast ngers, quick recognition, trasnmitting commands from brain to ngers... ;) I'll just keep practicing. :D
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Originally Posted by Music_Producer (Post 3144377) Oanda news is super slow compared to tradethenews..I don't think there's a difference in their news speed for real or demo accounts.
Phew! I had been thinking that maybe I was just slow! I'll try a quicker news service and hopefully that will make things easier for me. Kay, thanks, that makes me feel a bit better. Now at leats I know I was somewhat
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handicapped in a way since I was trying to trade off Oanda's news service. ;o ;)
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Originally Posted by Music_Producer (Post 3144377) Sign up for a tradethenews trial.. and when you install the software - there are 2 sections. One is text, and then there are audio channels. I prefer the audio.. that comes out 2 seconds before the text.
I think I'll do that - thanks. :cool:

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Originally Posted by Music_Producer (Post 3144377) And I can give you a lot of ideas on how to spend that $21 :D
Haha, we'll it's up to $53 now - made 3 pips on a $100K lot on the interest rate announcement this afternoon. :D
Music_Producer
12-12-2006 03:54 PM
Musician? Cool! What do you play? I can play the keyboards.. but never been formally trained, can just play by ear. I had a hard time convincing my parents (typical indian doctors) that there is a living to be made by making music rather than being a doctor. They didn't believe me till I showed them my rst paycheck from a jingle I composed. Now, they don't believe me that you can make money from trading forex.. :D
~Shard~
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12-12-2006 06:57 PM
Originally Posted by Music_Producer (Post 3144847) Musician? Cool! What do you play? I can play the keyboards.. but never been formally trained, can just play by ear. I had a hard time convincing my parents (typical indian doctors) that there is a living to be made by making music rather than being a doctor. They didn't believe me till I showed them my rst paycheck from a jingle I composed. Now, they don't believe me that you can make money from trading forex.. :D
Heh heh - way to prove them wrong. ;) I play clarinet and used to play sax. I played in the Symphony Orchestra here (one of the top ones in Canada, actually) from when I was 12 until I was 19, then my Engineering degree got in the way. ;) I was called by my old professor (the principal clarinet in the Orchestra) a few years ago wondering if I could ll in on short notice, and lucky for me, it was just like riding a bike, and I was back in shape in no time! Ever since I've been playing with the Symphony again in my spare time and doing my "Engineer stuff" during the day to pay the bills and such - the best of both worlds!
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Throw some investing and now forex trading into the mix and I've got nothing to complain about! And since we're somewhat off-topic already ;) I actually used to make music myself with a friend of mine. He has since gone on to do it much more seriously, and even has a small lm score under his belt along with a couple of CDs now, but back in the day we used to sit around in his parent's basement and make up all sorts of crazy stuff. All electronica - we used tracker programs, MIDI, a TR808 (I think it was), samplers, and then my buddy on the guitar and keyboards. We'd make all sorts of mixes - it was great fun. Now he's into Fruity Loops studio, other programs I don't know ;) and all these professional sample packages which cost hundreds of dollars. :D He recently did the mastering and mixing for another friend of mine (whom I played in the Orchestra with) and his band here in town and the CD turned out amazing. Anywho, now you know a little more about me. Feel free to comment and/or share more about yourself as well if you like. :) Or if you prefer we can continue this off-topic discussion via PMs or e-mail as not to hijack this wonderful thread too much. ;) :D
nhallmark
I guess I'll go ahead and confess that I'm a musician too. I just play guitar though.
12-12-2006 07:32 PM
I was in a band in high school(only two years ago) but that didn't work out, so I had to get serious and Ive pretty much locked myself in the back room of my house for two years getting material together and Im almost ready to go...or I will be January 1st. I write drums with Reason, the lay down the guitars, bass, and vocals in pro tools. Unfortunately, I've got to do it all on a dell because of the money issue. Veritas&Equitas, I would recommend forex, denetely. It's damn fun and this thread pretty much explains all you need to know. Also, building websites can bring in some money. It's more work than forex but there's a lot of people that make very substantial money from websites. I use Sitesell for mine.
~Shard~
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12-12-2006 08:28 PM
Originally Posted by nhallmark (Post 3145319) Also, building websites can bring in some money. It's more work than forex but there's a lot of people that make very substantial money from websites. I use Sitesell for mine.
Yeah, there is denitely good money in building websites. One of my friends in the States is one of the head designers for 2 Advanced Studios, which does some awesome work. Specically, he was one of the main designers for their "version 2 homepage" (they're up to version 5 now, I think). Slick stuff - it's an art when you get to the level they are at.... :cool:
Music_Producer
12-13-2006 04:09 AM
Shard.. you play the sax and clarinet? Damn, i'm jealous! (wind instr+electronica reminds me of house music in paris) I've always wanted to play a wind instrument.. and nhallmark.. I've wanted to play the guitar. I tried, but I gave up.. I got too bored of only one 'sound' coming out of a guitar.. so i immersed myself into keyboards. Shard, btw.. I make a lot of electronica .. i'll pm you (and i'm bloody more jealous that you guys had a tr 808!!)
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If I get my tunes up on itunes one day, please donate 99 cents of your forex prot for my tracks :D It's obviously not about the money for me.. but that someone is buying my stuff and getting painful chest symptoms while listening to it.. that's thrilling :p Ok, so back on track.. just wondering. How come online stock brokers like Scottrade, TD Waterhouse, etc don't provide forex services? Wouldn't they attract a lot more customers?
~Shard~
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12-13-2006 07:14 AM
Originally Posted by Music_Producer Shard.. you play the sax and clarinet? Damn, i'm jealous! (wind instr+electronica reminds me of house music in paris) I've always wanted to play a wind instrument.. and nhallmark.. I've wanted to play the guitar. I tried, but I gave up.. I got too bored of only one 'sound' coming out of a guitar.. so i immersed myself into keyboards. Shard, btw.. I make a lot of electronica .. i'll pm you (and i'm bloody more jealous that you guys had a tr 808!!)
Cool, that!s awesome that you!re into electronica as well. The stuff we did was several years ago now (well, we started back in !93) so it!s a little rough by today!s standards (a lot of it sounds like cheesy video game music I!m sure! ;) :D) but we enjoyed creating it nonetheless. As I said, my buddy has since moved onto more professional projects and he!s doing well from what I!ve heard (literally and guratively ;) :cool: ) But yes, denitely PM me at some point and we can chat more. If you have an FTP, iDisk or some other way which we could txfer some les let me know and we could swap tunes! :)
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Originally Posted by Music_Producer If I get my tunes up on itunes one day, please donate 99 cents of your forex prot for my tracks It's obviously not about the money for me.. but that someone is buying my stuff and getting painful chest symptoms while listening to it.. that's thrilling
Absolutely! Just let me know when they!re up there. ;)

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Originally Posted by Music_Producer Ok, so back on track.. just wondering. How come online stock brokers like Scottrade, TD Waterhouse, etc don't provide forex services? Wouldn't they attract a lot more customers?
Yeah, I!ve wondered this too. They honestly just seem to be behind the times so to speak. When I compare the power that a platform like CMC has when it comes to stocks especially, the online discount brokerages are lacking far behind. It almost seems like they are light versions of trading platforms. I guess not everyone needs an industrial strength platform but those online ones denitely seem watered down. The quotes aren!t real-time, the bid/ask spreads are greater, the commissions are higher I guess it!s just the target market their aiming for for many people that!s good enough I guess. Better than their broker... :rolleyes: So it!s no surprise to me that they!re not into forex and such. Rightly or wrongly they probably believe it!s too foreign (haha foreign, forex... :rolleyes: ) for the average investor to comprehend and due to the whole
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margin thing, they view it as too risky. After all, for CMC at least you have to be an accredited investor, not just any Joe Blow. Plus, the brokerage houses would need to support an entirely different trading system, have support for it, yadda yadda. Up here, Scotiabank has been progressive by allowing more freedom in trading options and so forth, as even that is quite limited with other institutions. But yeah, I think they could it must just not have a positive business case for them. Or perhaps they don!t want everyone to know about forex and want people to assume it!s some high stress rocket science which only Wall Street gurus can comprehend. ;) Plus, to be honest, I don!t know how many people would actually do it. None of my friends know anything about forex trading and even my broker (which I hardly use anymore) knows nothing about it. The only other person I!ve been able to speak to about it intelligently is a friend of mine who is a bond trader for a capital management rm. (Oh, and he!ll be a good recruit for our hedge fund/trading company whenever we set it up. :D)
nhallmark
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12-13-2006 09:42 AM
Originally Posted by Music_Producer (Post 3146124) .. and nhallmark.. I've wanted to play the guitar. I tried, but I gave up.. I got too bored of only one 'sound' coming out of a guitar..
I was that way when I rst started playing, but now I like the challenge of coming up with new sounds on a guitar, through a combination of pedals and rack units.
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If I get my tunes up on itunes one day, please donate 99 cents of your forex prot for my tracks :D It's obviously not about the money for me.. but that someone is buying my stuff and getting painful chest symptoms while listening to it.. that's thrilling :p
If you need a distributor, go with tunecore. They just charge you upload fees and they DONT take a cut of your sales. Anyway, how did you guys do on US retail sales this morning. I missed the spike but I made 11 pips on the small correction,(which I wouldnt do with real money, so I probably shouldnt have done it).
~Shard~
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12-13-2006 11:38 AM
Originally Posted by nhallmark (Post 3146922) Anyway, how did you guys do on US retail sales this morning. I missed the spike but I made 11 pips on the small correction,(which I wouldnt do with real money, so I probably shouldnt have done it).
I just watched this one. Honestly, I wasn't expecting the positive surprise, so by the time I conrmed the #s the downward spike had already occurred and it was too late to trade. And I don't want to come across the wrong way, but you are right, you shouldn't have done that trade. After all, are you trading the news using facts and logic or are you trading on speculation? (i.e. "I think this curve
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should correct now...") Because if it's the latter, then you might as well just go play some roulette at a casino - you're essentially betting that since a certain number has gone down lots, it will start to go up - not much scientic or logical about that. You said it best - you wouldn't have done that with real money, so that basically defeats the purpose of practicing. As we've said many times in this thread, you have to treat your practice account as real money - don't do anything you wouldn't do with your own money on the line. You have to be honest rst and foremost. Please accept this as constructive criticism and nothing more - I just don't want to see you lose money when you start for real. And as I said, if you want to just gamble on gut feel and whatnot, go ahead, but realize that you're removing all logical thought and reason from the process and you might as well get a monkey to randomly buy and sell for you instead. :cool:
nhallmark
12-13-2006 12:27 PM
Thanks, Shard. I wake up at 7am and the trades are usually at 7:30(central) so Im usually half asleep, but Im setting my alarm clock earlier every day so I can wake up before I trade...either way, that was the rst time I've done that and it will denitely be the last. Are you trading NZD retail sales this afternoon?
Music_Producer
12-13-2006 01:33 PM
Traded the US retail sales for 6 pips today.. could have made more than 45 but CMC 'slipped' :rolleyes: A positive number was actually expected because this was for November.. and we had Black Friday (thanksgiving shopping) plus it's the start of the holiday season shopping.. so yeah. Shucks, I should have sold GBP/USD before the report.. but then I'm always thinking of the risks and prefer to wait. Shard, thanks for the explanation regarding online stock brokers and why they don't offer forex. Yeah, I remember when I used to trade stocks 4-5 years ago.. the platform was not at all efcient. I would get massive slippage all the time.. lol, so I shouldn't be complaining about forex platforms. They are much, much better compared to stock trading platforms. I'm dying (literally) to get access to an institutional trading platform. I'm just so curious to see what kind of platforms they have, and how they execute. Would be fun to butt in and suggest 'May I trade for you and make $500,000?' See if they hire me on the spot :p
Music_Producer
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12-13-2006 01:37 PM
Originally Posted by ~Shard~ (Post 3147189) And I don't want to come across the wrong way, but you are right, you shouldn't have done that trade. After all, are you trading the news using facts and logic or are you trading on speculation? (i.e. "I think this curve should correct now...") Because if it's the latter, then you might as well just go play some roulette at a casino - you're essentially betting that since a certain number has gone down lots, it will start to go up - not much scientic or logical about that.
Yeah, nhallmark remember that there are numerous opportunities for trading forex. When CMC doesn't execute my order.. sure I get pissed.. but I don't trade the following spikes. Simply because I would rather
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wait for 24 hours to trade again than make a loss. Traders always do this.. they'll spend a week trading and making .. say.. a 100 pips total. And then they will trade the NFP report on friday. "Oh wow! NFP was excellent! Buy the $!!" If they enter the trade late, they still buy the $. And then a european bank steps in and sells massive amount of dollars.. and the traders lose those 100 pips they collected over the week. If you miss the initial spike, just let it go (unless you get some additional news data) Yes, it's really hard to do that .. but that's what your practice account is there for. :)
Music_Producer
1 Attachment(s)
12-14-2006 01:40 AM
Ok, I am leaving CMC for good. They obviously have a 'dealing desk' and it seems that their goal is to provide slippage almost all the time (maybe because i am always protable? hmm..) I bagged 20 pips today on the GBP/USD (UK retail sales report) but.. I missed out a 40 pip prot. CMC took 46 seconds to respond to my 'sell' trigger. As shown in the attachment.. i bought gbp/usd at 1.9662 and immediately hit sell at 1.9692 (or 94) Nothing happened. I didn't hit 'sell' again because i knew this order was still pending. It nally let me sell after that unbearably long time (in the picture you can see buy at 9.30.02 am and sell at 9.30.48am) Attachment 64052 46 seconds is a bloody long time.. the spike could have easily reversed and I could have made a loss of 20 pips .. who knows?
Music_Producer
12-14-2006 01:49 AM
Shard, if we did open a hedge fund.. what broker would we use?! I am condent enough to trade 10 million lots .. but this obviously requires a broker that executes rightaway. The one thing I don't understand about these idiots is.. that they make their prot on the spread anyway.. so why eece the customer more? Bah.. I wonder if suing their asses will make them change their strategies.
nhallmark
12-14-2006 06:08 AM
I made 8 pips on the US import price index and unemployment claims. Oanda dropped the connection right when I sold(EUR/USD), so I logged in on the mac and closed immediately, making $84. Oanda has been dropping the connection right in the middle of news time for a few days now. I hope they just do that to the game accounts and not the real ones. Sorry to hear about your problems with CMC, Music_Producer. I dont have any experience with it myself, but my problems with oanda generate the same feelings of wanting to hit something(or sue something :p)
~Shard~
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12-14-2006 11:34 AM
Originally Posted by Music_Producer (Post 3149447) Ok, I am leaving CMC for good. They obviously have a 'dealing desk' and it seems that their goal is to provide slippage almost all the time (maybe because i am always protable? hmm..)
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That's too bad Music_Producer. At least you didn't end up losing a lot of money in the process, but regardless that kind of slippage isn't acceptable at all. :mad: Apologies, as I feel partly responsible for recommending CMC to you in the rst place! :o It still meets my needs, but as my skill becomes more "rened" and perhaps if I trade quicker thanks to tools like the tradethenews service, perhaps I will experience deciencies like that as well.
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Originally Posted by Music_Producer (Post 3149459) Shard, if we did open a hedge fund.. what broker would we use?! I am condent enough to trade 10 million lots .. but this obviously requires a broker that executes rightaway.
Exactly. Yeah, I don't know how we would go about that. I guess we'd need to research what the other hedge funds use - I honestly don't know what type of "industrial strength" tools those guys have, or how they have direct to-market access, or whatever they term it. Maybe I'll ask my bond trader friend what all they use. And you know, I'm not sure about you, but I'm half-serious about doing something like that. We can PM further about it. :cool:
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Originally Posted by Music_Producer (Post 3149447) The one thing I don't understand about these idiots is.. that they make their prot on the spread anyway.. so why eece the customer more? Bah.. I wonder if suing their asses will make them change their strategies.
Heh heh - I don't know how well that would go in court, but it would be fun to do! ;) :D How would you really prove though that you executed your SELL order 40 seconds before it was lled? But yes, I don't know either why they would do this. Or, perhaps you get what you pay for and a platform such as CMC which is free (after a minimum account deposit) simply isn't as hardened as other platforms and its simply not a foolproof system - perhaps it can't handle split-second high volume trades during busy trading periods. Maybe it's like tradethenes versus Bloomberg news - if you want the best, you pay for it! I don't think it's unreasonable to expect no slippage (because it is possible, we know that), but again, if this is a platform for us "small sh" perhaps the powers that be feel it is "good enough". :rolleyes:
Music_Producer
12-14-2006 06:35 PM
Oh no Shard.. don't be silly! No need to apologize.. I have just had one loss (due to slippage) but all other trades have been protable. I can't trade with Oanda because of the spreads.. they are just too much to handle. In fact, I checked with a customer support rep at CMC, and they were surprised that the re-quote took so long to show up.. they said it shows up almost instantaneously. :confused: They also mentioned that if the same problem happened again, I should contact them and they will look into it. Very helpful support team indeed. If you let other forex platforms' teams know that you're trading the news with them, they'll either close your
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account or give you a warning.. not CMC. I am going to trade with cmc today and see if the same thing happens. It might be a glitch in the software.. who knows? Shard, if you don't mind me asking.. if you get a re-quote.. can you check and let me know how much time it takes for that re-quote window to show up? Thanks!
~Shard~
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12-14-2006 06:45 PM
Originally Posted by Music_Producer (Post 3151921) Oh no Shard.. don't be silly! No need to apologize.. I have just had one loss (due to slippage) but all other trades have been protable. I can't trade with Oanda because of the spreads.. they are just too much to handle.
Alright, no worries then. ;) It's just that when I recommend something to someone, I want it to turn out well for them, that's all... :)
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Originally Posted by Music_Producer (Post 3151921) In fact, I checked with a customer support rep at CMC, and they were surprised that the re-quote took so long to show up.. they said it shows up almost instantaneously. :confused: They also mentioned that if the same problem happened again, I should contact them and they will look into it. Very helpful support team indeed.
That's good to hear. Yes, I've phoned their support desk a few times as well (even chatted with people at their FX dealing desk!) and they have always been nothing but helpful as well. The one guy explained Mark-to-market for me and how the interest is factored into the price differential when a carry position is rolled over - exactly what I needed to know!
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Originally Posted by Music_Producer (Post 3151921) If you let other forex platforms' teams know that you're trading the news with them, they'll either close your account or give you a warning.. not CMC. I am going to trade with cmc today and see if the same thing happens. It might be a glitch in the software.. who knows?
Let's hope that's all it was. And yes, CMC has been nothing but good for me s far, so knock on wood!
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Originally Posted by Music_Producer (Post 3151921) Shard, if you don't mind me asking.. if you get a re-quote.. can you check and let me know how much time it takes for that re-quote window to show up? Thanks!
Absolutely, of course I don't mind at all. I will denitely let you know if that happens to me- but let's hope not!
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;) :D So, any predictions on the US CPI tomorrow AM? The EUR and GBP have backed off a fair bit the past couple of days, do you think that will play a factor as well?
nhallmark
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12-14-2006 07:11 PM
Originally Posted by Music_Producer (Post 3151921) If you let other forex platforms' teams know that you're trading the news with them, they'll either close your account or give you a warning..
Um..is there something wrong with trading the news or is it just an ego thing with them? Do you guys trade NZD at all? I've watched it on almost every report for the past two weeks now and maybe once it moved enough to trade. Today, NZD retail sales made NZD/USD move a whole pip! So, I guess its just not a good market?(for trading the news)
~Shard~
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12-14-2006 07:21 PM
Originally Posted by nhallmark (Post 3152026) Um..is there something wrong with trading the news or is it just an ego thing with them? Do you guys trade NZD at all? I've watched it on almost every report for the past two weeks now and maybe once it moved enough to trade. Today, NZD retail sales made NZD/USD move a whole pip! So, I guess its just not a good market?(for trading the news)
For whatever reason NZD isn't as popular a currency as others, so it probably isn't traded as much as a result I'm guessing. Plus, the spreads on it would be larger, making it less attractive to trade. That being said, it is technically an excellent carry trade candidate, especially against the yen. :cool:
nhallmark
12-15-2006 05:43 AM
Just traded US CPI and I made 4 pips. EUR/USD had been moving up quite a bit before the news, so when I saw the data I waited for the spike and then traded which, if I would have just traded the data like Im supposed to, I would have made 24 pips. Thanks for the info on NZD, Shard. That makes sense. I've heard(or seen) you and Music_Producer talk about carry trading throughout this thread and Im sure I will learn more about it in the future, but right now Im barely learning to trade the news.(in other words, I dont quite understand it...yet!:p)
Music_Producer
12-15-2006 05:57 AM
Hey nhallmark.. I made 4 pips too! :D Slippage again, and re-quote from cmc took 40 seconds to show up. My initial 'buy' was at 1.9586.. had it executed at that price point.. I would have made 60 pips. Oh well, 4 pips is good (after accepting the re-quote at 1.9650!)
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TIC report is next!
nhallmark
12-15-2006 06:13 AM
TIC sucked for me. I made 1/3 of a pip. I guess it didnt move that much because of the CPI data? Also, by the numbers you gave, it looks like you traded GBP/USD? Is there a reason why you trade that vs. EUR/USD? It seems like the pound moves more but, it also seems that during news time, the euro is more stable. Just wondering what your take is...
~Shard~
12-15-2006 07:48 AM
I deifnitely need to get on tradethenews - that Oanda news service is too slow. I was waiting for the CPI news this morning, but the spike happeneed before the news was out, and I didn't want to trade based on assumption. ;) I technically could have got in but how was I to know if it would have been at the top of the spike or not? So, I didn't trade this morning, even though is was a good opportunity. :( ;) Ah well, there will always be more opportunities - that's what's great about forex trading! :D nhallmark, read the rest of our comments in this thread on carry trading and if you have any questions let us know. The basics of it are that you nd a currnecy pair which has a signicant interest rate differential in your favor, such as AUD (6.25%) and JPY (0.25%). By going long on the currency (buying AUD, selling JPY) and using larger lots, you can make roughly that 6% differential on a daily basis in interest. So, you do the math - if you put $1M in the bank @ 6%/year, how much would you make in interest alone? ;) :D And yes, your are correct, the GBP/USD has a higher beta than EUR/USD. It's the pair I prefer to trade as well as a result - the only downside is the extra pip (at least with CMC) in the spread. ;) :cool: Slow week next week due to Christmas? As I predicted, even though the DJIA30, NDAQ100 and S&P500 are all heavily overbought, etc. I doubt they will correct and enter the blow down phase until the new year due to prot-taking and the resultant tax implications. Then I'll be shorting like there's no tomorrow and taking full advantage of that beautiful thing called leverage. :D :cool:
tringo
Quote:
12-15-2006 05:39 PM
Originally Posted by Chip NoVaMac (Post 2549166) I wouldn't mind trying something that would give me an edge on doing the travel that I want. But my luck is bad. I could invest in a company that never has had a loss, and the stock has done double digits for 20 years (with no loss); and I would buy and the stock tanks in less than 6 months. :eek:
Let me guess. You bought Enron stock then. :p
Music_Producer
12-15-2006 06:10 PM
Shard, there were a couple of 'glitches' this morning regarding the reports. The empire manufacturing survey
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was actually released half an hour before.. due to a 'technical error'. It came out much better than exepected.. so the GBP dropped against the USD by 30-40 pips. Then, the cpi number.. I think some folks got the pre-release news from 'friends'.. and so you saw the USD dropping pretty quickly before the actual report came out. I was quite tempted to get in, but didn't. Never know what can happen with these moves. And the TIC report wasn't that signicant simply because the CPI came out unexpectedly low. The CPI is the most important number. nhallmark.. haha.. 1/3 of a pip :p Oh, and don't forget that when you do a carry trade.. you have to take into account the prot/loss you can make when the currency pair moves. You could buy a million aud/jpy at 92.00.. but when it crashes to 82.00.. you've lost a 1000 pips or $100,000 ('lost' if you sell that trade) You can keep holding on to it, till it comes back up eventually.. but what if it doesn't? Right now it seems like AUd/JPY can still go higher because japan doesn't seem too keen on raising their rates, so the carry trade is on full swing. All it takes is a little panic to bring the whole thing down!
~Shard~
12-15-2006 09:25 PM
Thanks for the clarication Music_Producer. I'm also currently in the carry trade, so we'll see how it goes. :cool: Oh, and sorry nhallmark, I shouldn't throw terms out there without explaining them. :o I re-read my post to you and wanted to explain about beta. Beta is simply a measure of a stock's (or in this case a currency pair's) volatility and subsequently its systematic risk. In the stock market it is compared to the volatility of the market as a whole. So, for currency pairs perhaps it's not the best term to use, although denitely applicable in the above example, as the GBP/USD is generally more volatile than the EUR/USD. More specically, a stock's beta is calculated by running a regression analysis resulting in a beta coefcient. If the beta coefcient is 1, then the stock tends to be as volatile as the stock market, or more specically, the index/market/sector in which the stock resides. A beta greater than 1 means the stock is more volatile, while a beta less than 1 means it's less volatile. Oh, and it is possible for a stock to have a negative beta. In this case, the stock tends to move in opposite directions than the market. One example is Anheuser Busch, which is though to benet when the market is doing poorly because more people turn to drinking. ;) :D (And no, I'm not joking...) So, some examples to summarize: - a beta of 1 represents a stock price movement that has the same volatility as the underlying index, sector, etc. - a beta of 0.50 represents a stock price movement that is half as volatile as the underlying index, sector, etc. - a beta of 2.50 represents a stock price movement that is 150% more volatile than the underlying index, sector, etc. Make sense? :cool:
nhallmark
That makes sense. Thanks Shard. I was about to post and ask you about that.
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12-15-2006 09:58 PM
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I was quite tempted to get in, but didn't. Never know what can happen with these moves.
Are you talking about the CPI data or TIC report. I thought you traded CPI?
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nhallmark.. haha.. 1/3 of a pip
Err...I dont have have a comeback :cool: Oh yeah, "I'm learning"-That's my excuse!:p Seriously, I shouldnt have traded the TIC but I didn't know that until afterwards, Now I know not to trade in a situation like this morning.
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One example is Anheuser Busch, which is though to benet when the market is doing poorly because more people turn to drinking. (And no, I'm not joking...)
That's hilarious...but it makes perfect sense.

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I deifnitely need to get on tradethenews - that Oanda news service is too slow.
Yeah, I used the oanda service for about three days and I was done. They seem to report the news almost as an afterthought. Tradethenews has a siren that goes off and the headline shows up red. It really gets your attention. The audio news is pretty cool which I used when I had the trial but now that Im paying Im doing just text because text is $39 and audio is something like $179. But, if I had been trading real money today, I would have made $40 on the CPI data this morning, so tradethenews pays for itself - its worth it in my opinion.
~Shard~
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12-16-2006 01:03 PM
Originally Posted by nhallmark (Post 3155481) That makes sense. Thanks Shard. I was about to post and ask you about that.
No worries - I just didn't want to come across as some smart-ass who throws terms out there expecting novices to understand them.. ;)
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Originally Posted by nhallmark (Post 3155481) The audio news is pretty cool which I used when I had the trial but now that Im paying Im doing just text because text is $39 and audio is something like $179.
Really? I hadn't looked into tradethenews yet myself (on my to-do list this week actually) but I wouldn't have thought the price differential between text and audio would be so great. Music_Producer, you mentioned there is a denite gap and that the audio is faster - is it worth it in your opinion, or would the text be a good enough start for me for now? Anything better than is Oanda's service is ne by me, I've had enough of it, time to move on.. ;) :cool:
nhallmark
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12-16-2006 04:46 PM
Originally Posted by ~Shard~ (Post 3156618) Really? I hadn't looked into tradethenews yet myself (on my to-do list this week actually) but I wouldn't have thought the price differential between text and audio would be so great.
Here's the page...https://www.tradethenews.com/subscribe.php I guess they have to pay the guy to talk into the mic, but I don't think they pay him that much. Anyway, I played with the audio in my trial, but I havent actually traded wih it. It would be worth it, but its not really cost effective for me right now because Im not making real money. On another note, I looked through the pages in this thread trying to nd something about taxes because I remember you guys talking about it but I cant nd it. So, what do you do at tax time? Do you take screenshots of every trade? Or is the transaction history enough? Or do you just tell your accountant "I made this much:p "
~Shard~
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12-16-2006 10:10 PM
Originally Posted by nhallmark (Post 3157137) Here's the page...https://www.tradethenews.com/subscribe.php I guess they have to pay the guy to talk into the mic, but I don't think they pay him that much. Anyway, I played with the audio in my trial, but I havent actually traded wih it. It would be worth it, but its not really cost effective for me right now because Im not making real money.
Thanks, I'll check it out myself and sign up for the trial in the new year, preferably around the time that a lot of key announcements are being released.. ;) :D
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Originally Posted by nhallmark (Post 3157137) On another note, I looked through the pages in this thread trying to nd something about taxes because I remember you guys talking about it but I cant nd it. So, what do you do at tax time? Do you take screenshots of every trade? Or is the transaction history enough? Or do you just tell your accountant "I made this much:p "
Just like any other trading I do, I will simply be taking my monthly statements to my accountant. I don't think there should be anything too complicated with it, but perhaps Music_Producer could shed further light on it.
~Shard~
12-17-2006 01:40 PM
So Music_Producer, what's your take on the BoJ interest rate announcement on Tuesday this week? Are you still in your AUD/JPY carry trade? I am as well. If Japan does indeed hike rates, that should hurt the carry trade, correct? Are you going to close your position before the announcement? What do you gure will happen?
Music_Producer
12-17-2006 07:34 PM
Hey nhallmark.. for taxes, I believe its Schedule D (capital gains) I do all my taxes on quicken+turbotax.. I wouldn't go to an accountant when I could do the same thing myself. I do my taxes usually when I'm on vacation somewhere.. that's when I can do them peacefully :p You don't need to take screenshots.. I don't even keep the transaction statements.. all that matters is the prot (or loss) that you have made. Shard, JPY interest rates should be unchanged.. but let's see what the BOJ chief says. I'm still in the carry trade.. even if the BOJ guy says 'we need to raise interest rates' aud/jpy might dip 50 or so pips.. but eventually get back up again.
~Shard~
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12-17-2006 07:55 PM
Originally Posted by Music_Producer (Post 3159740) I wouldn't go to an accountant when I could do the same thing myself.
Yeah, that's not a bad idea if you can manage it. Alas, my taxes are so complicated I decided a few years back it simply wasn't worth my time and effort to do them myself anymore and I went to an accountant. Since then I have been receiving much greater returns, as my accountant is nding lots of deductions I used to always miss. As well, I'm into stocks, bonds, ow-through entities, convertible debentures, income trusts, limited partnerships... with all the tax implications, write-offs, conversions, adjusted cost bases and corresponding interest (some on an annual accrual basis, some not) and a whole bunch of other factors, for me at least it is worth the few hundred dollars to get them done quick and get them done right. Plus, if CRA ever comes after me I'm protected form audits since I have had an accountant do my taxes. Just one less thing to worry about for me. :cool:
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Originally Posted by Music_Producer (Post 3159740) Shard, JPY interest rates should be unchanged.. but let's see what the BOJ chief says. I'm still in
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the carry trade.. even if the BOJ guy says 'we need to raise interest rates' aud/jpy might dip 50 or so pips.. but eventually get back up again.
Yeah, I believe they should remain unchanged as well, but as a result if there's a surprise, I was concerned about the resultant dip. But, as you say, if there is one it will probably (hopefully!) just be temporary. Plus, it seems like there are so many people who use this currency pair for carry trading that "they" almost won't let it tank. ;) :D And to conrm, with the US PPI #s coming out on Tuesday, this is a measure of ination, correct? So if the #s are high, although you'd think high = good news for the US, it's actually bad, because it is a sign of rising ination which means the country might have to cut interest rates to curb the rising ination, thus making the currency less valuable for investors - correct?
Music_Producer
12-18-2006 04:00 AM
Shard, I've wasted so much time on doing taxes as well.. and at one point I was almost going to get an accountant.. but I just like to do things myself for some reason. :rolleyes: Oh.. and if I had a variety of investments like you have.. I would probably use an accountant too. I just love the DIY approach .. the tougher, the better :) It's also a good learning process, and in the end I couldn't beleive how simple it was, and how much accountants make for something that you can do in a couple of hours (or minutes, if you are very organized from the start) Coming to the PPI, yes, if it's a higher number.. that means ination is still a threat.. but I think you got that part wrong where you mentioned 'interest rates will be cut to curb ination' No, its the opposite. If ination goes higher, interest rates have to be raised to slow down ination. So, if the PPI (or CPI) numbers are more.. that means the markets will expect the Feds to raise interest rates. This is also why the $ went down on Friday.. as the CPI came out at 0% (expected at 0.2%) So everyone thought 'Oh great, Bernanke is not going to hike rates.. or he will cut rates) Basically.. 2 types of reports 1. Ination measuring reports (CPI, PPI, etc) More ination = greater chance of rate hike = upward move in currency (whatever it may be - GBP or USD etc) 2. Economic growth reports (GDP, etc) - Better number, obviously higher the currency will go .. because a strong economy is good news. And i'm pissed that Cisco launched the iPhone :eek: Edit :- Forgot to answer your previous question - I nd that the tradethenews audio feed is a second or two earlier than the text report.. so yes, it makes a huge difference when trading. Now, bloomberg is 2-3 seconds faster than the tradethenews audio feed.. so you can imagine the advantage you have while trading with a bloomberg platform next to you. Then again, you're paying for it.
thebear
12-18-2006 04:46 AM
Need some help please. I have been trying the Oanda demo and cannot change anything, chart type, pairs, time, nothing. What am I doing wrong? Thanks for any help. New to forex, not new to Macs. :)
nhallmark
12-18-2006 05:52 AM
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Thanks for the info on taxes. Im pissed off about the iphone, also, but hopefully, this just means apple is done with the "i" thing...and we'll still see a phone at macworld.;) :D I didn't trade the US current account this morning because the numbers were roughly as expected and Im glad because it didn't move that much anyway. thebear, try clearing your cookies, cache, etc. and make sure you have the latest version of java installed and try again. Also, try just logging out and back in. It's happened to me before and I just closed the window and logged back in and it was ne.
~Shard~
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12-18-2006 07:17 AM
Originally Posted by Music_Producer (Post 3160396) Shard, I've wasted so much time on doing taxes as well.. and at one point I was almost going to get an accountant.. but I just like to do things myself for some reason. Oh.. and if I had a variety of investments like you have.. I would probably use an accountant too. I just love the DIY approach .. the tougher, the better. It's also a good learning process, and in the end I couldn't beleive how simple it was, and how much accountants make for something that you can do in a couple of hours (or minutes, if you are very organized from the start)
Yeah, I totally know where you're coming from. I'm that way too, and as I said, did my own taxes up until only a couple years ago. I ended up missing things, misunderstanding things (and subsequently reling) and (now that I've seen what my accountant did) outright missed some deductions I could have made. But yes, I'm the type who prefers DIY as well - after all, we do all our investing on our own, right? ;) :)
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Originally Posted by Music_Producer (Post 3160396) Coming to the PPI, yes, if it's a higher number.. that means ination is still a threat.. but I think you got that part wrong where you mentioned 'interest rates will be cut to curb ination' No, its the opposite. If ination goes higher, interest rates have to be raised to slow down ination. So, if the PPI (or CPI) numbers are more.. that means the markets will expect the Feds to raise interest rates. This is also why the $ went down on Friday.. as the CPI came out at 0% (expected at 0.2%) So everyone thought 'Oh great, Bernanke is not going to hike rates.. or he will cut rates)
Ooops, you're right, I'm not sure why I typed that. ;) Yes, obviously if ination goes higher interest rates have to be raised to slow it down. Thanks for the correction. :o
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Originally Posted by Music_Producer (Post 3160396) Basically.. 2 types of reports 1. Ination measuring reports (CPI, PPI, etc) More ination = greater chance of rate hike = upward move in currency (whatever it may be - GBP or USD etc) 2. Economic growth reports (GDP, etc) - Better number, obviously higher the currency will go .. because a strong economy is good news.
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... And thanks for the summary. :)

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Originally Posted by Music_Producer (Post 3160396) Edit :- Forgot to answer your previous question - I nd that the tradethenews audio feed is a second or two earlier than the text report.. so yes, it makes a huge difference when trading. Now, bloomberg is 2-3 seconds faster than the tradethenews audio feed.. so you can imagine the advantage you have while trading with a bloomberg platform next to you. Then again, you're paying for it.
Yeah, exactly - you get what you pay for! I'll denitely give the tradethenews platform a try in the New Year I'll just pick a busy week in terms of economic data (and potential trades) to make the most of the 1-week free trial. ;) :D In a way, it doesn't seem like tradethenews and Bloomberg would/should be that much faster (a couple seconds is an eternity in this game!) because even with Oanda's new service, the news comes out almost at the same time as the spike - a little bit after in most cases. With tradethenews can you actually get in "comfortably" before the spike (and by comfortably I mean .5 seconds or so)? You say it's 2-3 seconds faster? And with Bloomberg you would then, in theory, be able to get in well before the spike (a whole second or two)??? However with all the institutions using Bloomberg you'd expect they would be the ones causing the spike in the rst place! ;) I guess all I'm saying is that I'm a bit surprised these platforms would give you a really noticeable advantage, but I guess they must... I'll just have to see for myself. :cool:
Music_Producer
12-18-2006 10:47 PM
Right Shard, it is the banks and hedge funds managers who have access to Bloomberg terminals, that cause that spike.. but if you and I were using the same terminal.. we would be *part* of that spike too. We would get in, like everyone else, at the beginning of the spike and get out at the top. Btw, be careful while trading the US PPI.. there's housing starts coming out as well (although i doubt that will be very important) But a huge deviation in housing starts could erase off any spikes caused due to ppi numbers. If, for example housing starts came out highly positive, therefore surprising everyone. That's one big relief for the US traders.. in that the real estate market is seen as pulling the US economy down.. so an upward number will be a sign of a healthier economy. I'm also trading the Canadian CPI

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Music_Producer
12-19-2006 04:08 AM
Canadian CPI came out better than expected at 0.3% (core number) Made 10 pips on that trade.
~Shard~
12-19-2006 04:23 AM
Thanks for the warning re: the US PPI - I was kind of thinking the same thing, since multiple announcements are coming out at the same time. I'll denitely be watching the trade but I'm not sure if I'll act this time around. We'll see... Also I just woke up to a pleasant surprise - while I was sleeping it seems as though my AUD/JPY carry trade has shot up a good 40 pips for me! :D Any reason why? I haven't hadn't a chance to read the headlines yet... Maybe I should just exit it for now before today's BoJ announcement, just in case... hmmm...
Music_Producer
12-19-2006 05:38 AM
Wow, pretty tepid reaction to strong PPI numbers ..caught 15 pips on the down spike .. did you see the whipsaw? Man, eur/usd rst went up by about 8-10 pips and then dropped rightaway. :eek: Euro's recovered back to where it was pre-news level.
~Shard~
12-19-2006 05:40 AM
Didn't end up trading this one this morning - as usual, Oanda's news service was a touch slow, so I wasn't able to get in on time. Hindsight says I could have got in mid-way through the spike and still made a few pips going down, but, well, that's hindsight. ;) The other thing that threw me was that just before the news came out, there was actually a positive spike upwards - I was wondering if someone was doing some insider trading! ;) :D But, if they were, they were wrong, as once the news came out there was that sharp decrease. Oops. :p :D So yeah, I could have made a bit this morning, but chose to err on the safe side this go around. There's always next time... :cool: Oh, and since I'll be at work all day I decided to close out my carry trade position as well, just in case the AUD/JPY gets hits with the announcement this afternoon. Perhaps it won't, or perhaps it will continue to rise, but I've made some nice money on it so no need to get greedy. I'll open another carry position on the currency pair before the week is out... :cool:
nhallmark
12-19-2006 05:47 AM
I didn't trade PPI. Tradethenews was a little slow and there was zero time to get in. The news came out and it dropped at the same time. oh well I was looking at the bloomberg platform last night. It pisses me off because, like everything else it only works
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on windows. But my bank account doesn't really care, so whatever.
~Shard~
12-19-2006 07:04 AM
Isn't the Bloomberg terminal $1700/month or something?!? :eek: As it's been said before though, I guess you get what you pay for, and if you're a big trading rm/hedge fund I'm sure that's small peanuts when compared to your overall prots/month... must be nice... :o :cool:
Music_Producer
1 Attachment(s)
12-19-2006 02:54 PM
Oh yeah, the Bloomberg Terminal is $1700 per month.. and don't worry about a pc nhallmark.. you don't need to use one :p They give you the hardware setup - 2 monitors, keyboard and i guess the data hardware. You are connected to the bloomberg data center via a direct line.. I am not sure if you can connect via cable/dsl.. but obviously the direct line is the fastest way to get that news.. makes no sense to pay so much and get your bloomberg info at the same time as oanda news!! Attachment 64430 As Shard mentioned, it's a negligible (but necessary) expense for banks. Look at Bank of America's foreign exchange prot.. somewhere like half a billion USD. Nice, they get to play with our money.. :D
nhallmark
Wow, Music_Producer, that thing is hideous. This is the one I saw...
12-19-2006 05:42 PM
It's no 30" Cinema Display, but it'll do. So, if it's a direct line, do they have to make a service call to your house to install the line, or what? Also, I saw on their "Bloomberg Anywhere" login page the option to login natively or through java, so it might be possible to access it on a mac, but I'd be willing to use their hardware if its faster. They also have this keycard that lets you log in with your ngerprint...
I can't wait until I can afford this thing. Here's where I got the images... http://about.bloomberg.com/about/pro...nal/index.html
nhallmark
Did you guys trade the US GDP this morning? I just watched it to learn.
12-21-2006 05:57 AM
~Shard~
12-21-2006 08:45 AM
Just watched it as well - I didn't think there would be enough variance to make any money from it, and I was kind of right. :o ;) I think things in general will slow down until the end of the year now, being holiday season
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and all. I'll be around for the trade tomorrow on US durable goods etc. but after that, I don't think there'll be much trading until the New Year. One thing I did do though was enter back into my AUD/JPY carry trade. Down a little bit on it right now (got in at 92.98) but making interest, and hopefully the currency will remain solid throughout the holidays - there won't be as many announcements which would move it. I plan on holding this position for a while now and only went with half my desired amount in case there's a large dip - if there is, I'll simply DCA down and get even more interest. ;) :cool:
nhallmark
12-21-2006 06:35 PM
Are you guys trading US Durable goods in the morning? I think Im going to watch again because there is a lot of data coming out at the same time. Ive never traded this before but it looks like it will be crazy like NFP, but I could be wrong:confused:
~Shard~
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12-21-2006 09:30 PM
Originally Posted by nhallmark (Post 3171147) Are you guys trading US Durable goods in the morning? I think Im going to watch again because there is a lot of data coming out at the same time. Ive never traded this before but it looks like it will be crazy like NFP, but I could be wrong:confused:
I'll be ready with my nger on the trade button, but we'll see how it goes... AUD/JPY is back up - my carry trade is doing nicely right now as a result... :) I'll be holding it through to the New year now... :cool:
Music_Producer
12-22-2006 01:40 AM
Hey guys, nhallmark.. I posted an older pic of the bloomberg platform.. their new one looks real sleek :) I might just watch the trade today.. two very important reports coming out.. Durable goods and PCE.. Durable goods is important but then PCE becomes important as well.. thanks to all the ination issues and expectations of a rate hike/cut. I think there might be a whipsaw.. and I don't want to risk getting caught in it. Maybe I'll trade with a very small lot. Shard, yup the aud/jpy should continue to strengthen.. but i would caution holding on to it when january arrives. Just this feeling .. that it's appreciated too much.. and usually you know.. that seasonal thing that you're always talking about comes into play as well :D And to think aud/jpy was 83 in july. Man s$@#%#!@!!!!
~Shard~
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12-22-2006 04:35 AM
Originally Posted by Music_Producer (Post 3171798) Shard, yup the aud/jpy should continue to strengthen.. but i would caution holding on to it when
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january arrives. Just this feeling .. that it's appreciated too much.. and usually you know.. that seasonal thing that you're always talking about comes into play as well :D And to think aud/jpy was 83 in july. Man s$@#%#!@!!!!
Thanks Music_Producer, I'll keep that in mind.... :)
Music_Producer
12-22-2006 05:42 AM
Haha.. just like I said.. it's a damn rollercoaster. Made 16 pips riding it (selling at the peaks and closing at the bottom) with multiple trades. It's a perfect 12-15 pip whipsaw range. I'm done for the day.. don't want to ruin all those prots.
~Shard~
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12-22-2006 07:05 AM
Originally Posted by Music_Producer (Post 3172096) Haha.. just like I said.. it's a damn rollercoaster. Made 16 pips riding it (selling at the peaks and closing at the bottom) with multiple trades. It's a perfect 12-15 pip whipsaw range. I'm done for the day.. don't want to ruin all those prots.
Nicely done! I was thinking about popping in and out too, but just didn't want to trade on speculation, as I got burned by doing that before on the previous NFP report. :o ;) Next year one of my resolutions is to turn it up a notch and start getting more serious with my trading. Larger lots, a tradethenews subscription possibly, that sort of thing. The past couple months have been good practice, but I'd condent and ready now to start making hundreds of dollars on average per trade instead of tens of dollars... ;) :cool:
nhallmark
12-22-2006 08:21 AM
I didnt trade either. The rst spike was over when the news came out so I just watched it. I get so impatient when I dont make any money, but I keep reminding myself that Ive been doing this for less than a month.:)
~Shard~
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12-22-2006 09:15 AM
Originally Posted by nhallmark (Post 3172396) I didnt trade either. The rst spike was over when the news came out so I just watched it. I get so impatient when I dont make any money, but I keep reminding myself that Ive been doing this for less than a month.:)
Yep - patience is a virtue. You would be well advised to try and remove as much emotion from trading as possible. When emotions gets involved, nothing good comes of anything... ;) :cool:
4 of 10
1/15/08 8:23 PM
forexpip
Does anyone know any good strategy for 30 minutes frame? I have found one in http://forexplace.blogspot.com/ including any good strategies. Anyone tested? Sorry, i'm a beginner.
12-22-2006 11:37 AM
~Shard~
12-25-2006 08:17 AM
Merry Christmas everyone! Just thought I'd post the little present which CMC seems to have given to me for Christmas. As you can see, even though CMC is closed for Christmas, apparently the AUD has magically appreciated over the JPY by a staggering 1900%! :eek: :eek: :eek:
As a result, if I could sell right now (which I can't :() the $50K I currently have open on my carry trade would be worth quite a bit! :D I'm sure that once CMC reopens things will correct themselves, but man, would it ever be nice to be able to sneak a SELL order in right now... :D :cool: Just thought I'd share this little amusing "glitch" which caught my eye when I logged on this morning. ;) Merry Christmas to all and I hope 2007 is a prosperous year for everyone, both on the markets and otherwise. :cool:
nhallmark
Wow, Shard, that would be cool if you could sell right now.;) :D
12-25-2006 12:32 PM
Ive got a question: Chicago PMI is coming out thursday at 9am(central) and forexfactory has it listed as high impact and it says chicago PMI is a good gauge of the health of the business enviornment in chicago. So my question is why is this high impact? Does chicago have more impact than, say, NY or LA. And why would any single city have a big impact on the economy when there are so many other cities? Hope that makes sense:o
Music_Producer
12-26-2006 07:18 PM
5 of 10
1/15/08 8:23 PM
Merry Christmas everyone!!! Man, Shard.. that would have been an awesome trade.. had you managed to execute it! Once Oanda 'deposited' 40 million $ in my account. :D Should have sued them.. they almost gave me a heart attack :eek: nhallmark.. I am sure every city's PMI would be important.. but I don't know why they select Chicago. Maybe it's because it is the center of all currency, commodities trading and all that? There's nothing to trade this week really.. volume is going to be very thin.. I think I'll start trading soon as the new year rings in. Right now i feel lazy (after all the food and wine everyday) :p
~Shard~
12-28-2006 07:15 AM
Just traded the PMI, etc. #s and made a modest 5 pips by shorting the EUR/USD. Didn't know how things would react with the lighter trading volumes and such this week, plus with multiple reports, there's always the chance they might be conicting... Yay for my AUD/JPY carry trade though! :D Not only am I making interest on the trade but the pair itself has been performing great! I'm apprehensive on how much longer this can continue, but will enjoy the ride while it lasts! Next stop - 94 cents! ;) :cool:
nhallmark
I din't trade PMI. I just watched and now I see what you guys mean by "low volume". Did that earthquake by japan have any affect on your carry trades?
12-31-2006 12:42 PM
~Shard~
Quote:
12-31-2006 05:52 PM
Originally Posted by nhallmark (Post 3195830) Did that earthquake by japan have any affect on your carry trades?
Nope, she's still holding solid for me.
Caezar
Interactive Brokers I am not into forex trading, but I would to hear your advice in picking an online broker.
01-02-2007 10:35 AM
I intend to invest into ETFs for my retirement. I came across Interactive Brokers and am attracted by: - the accessibility for international investors (I live in Taiwan and am susceptible to move anywhere in the world) - the opportunity to hold accounts in different base currencies (I have savings in TWD, USD, EUR), - the low transaction costs for securities and forex (to translate my TWD earnings into EUR investments) The downside is that I will make a few transactions every year (I believe in efcient markets and intend to mostly buy and hold for many years) and will be charged a monthly fee of 10USD regardless. I also have questions about the broker's nancial strength, as it is not adossed to a well-known nancial institution.
6 of 10
1/15/08 8:23 PM
Do you have any recommendation?
nhallmark
01-03-2007 06:40 AM
made 4 pips on the ADP employment report today. Im about to trade the ISM reports. It seems that the news keeps coming out maybe half a second before the spike and Im wondering if the audio is really that much better? I was thinking about it and it seems like the audio would take longer. For example, this morning, if the guy said "ADP employment" "-40K V 120KE", then by the time he has named the report a second or two has gone by. Am I right or does it come out with enough time to get in?
nhallmark
01-03-2007 07:36 AM
made 3.5 pips on the ISM reports. oanda slipped on my game account. if they hadnt I would have made over 20 pips. Did you guys trade this morning?
~Shard~
01-03-2007 10:21 AM
Well done nhallmark! Alas I am at work today and unable to trade. :( I would have liked to, but there'll always be another time. ;) Is that the tradethenews service you're using? Sounds good, especially if you get data just before the spike (sometimes at least). I plan on demoing it out in the near future, and if it works that well I might just have to invest the $40/month in it... :cool: In the meantime, go AUD! ;) :D
Music_Producer
Happy New Year my trader friends :D
01-03-2007 02:45 PM
I tried trading the ADP but CMC gave me a re-quote.. so that was a no trade. I traded the ISM for 25 pips.. was a great trade.. can't believe that the GBP dropped more than a 100 pips last night (from the london session onwards) nhallmark.. the way they 'say' the news on ttn is 'minus 41, minus 41.. adp is minus 41'. So they will say the number rightaway. Shard.. lol.. yeah AUD's going crazy. I see 96 being approached and then i'll back off. It might go above 100 but I'd rather collect some prot than nothing. Cheers!!
~Shard~
Quote:
01-03-2007 03:30 PM
7 of 10
1/15/08 8:23 PM
Happy New Year my trader friends :D
And the same to you my friend - you're pretty much the reason I'm doing forex trading now, you realize, so thank you! ;) :)
Quote:
Originally Posted by Music_Producer (Post 3205594) I tried trading the ADP but CMC gave me a re-quote.. so that was a no trade. I traded the ISM for 25 pips.. was a great trade.. can't believe that the GBP dropped more than a 100 pips last night (from the london session onwards)
Yeah, I wish I was home for that one. I guess that's the trade-off between having a day job and just doing day trading itself - I can't always have it both ways... :o ;) Too bad these announcements didn't come out at 7:30AM CST like the majority of them do, as I can at least trade those before I head into work at 8:00. We'll see how this year goes - perhaps I will make enough to justify quitting my day job and just trade for a living. Still interested in starting up some type of fund Music_Producer? ;) :D
Quote:
Originally Posted by Music_Producer (Post 3205594) Shard.. lol.. yeah AUD's going crazy. I see 96 being approached and then i'll back off. It might go above 100 but I'd rather collect some prot than nothing. Cheers!!
Yeah, I'm in the same boat. Rumor has it Japan will announce another rate increase this month, which might at least put some temporary downward pressure on the AUDJPY trade. I'll be watching closely and will not get too greedy... ;) :cool: Ooh, looks like NFP is this Friday - that's always a fun trade... :D
nhallmark
Quote:
01-03-2007 07:10 PM
Originally Posted by Music_Producer (Post 3205594) nhallmark.. the way they 'say' the news on ttn is 'minus 41, minus 41.. adp is minus 41'. So they will say the number rightaway.
Is it fast enough to get in before or right at the spike? because the text is coming out to where I get in at 2/3 of the spike at the soonest. You've already said it was faster. I guess Im just wondering if its worth the $175 ?
nhallmark
01-04-2007 07:03 AM
8 of 10
1/15/08 8:23 PM
I just watched the ISM Non Manufacturing this morning. The numbers came out roughly as expected and its just now causing a small spike of about 7 pips. glad I didnt trade.
Music_Producer
01-05-2007 04:11 AM
nhallmark.. it's worth the money if you're trading signicant amount of units.. doesn't make sense to spend $175 on news subscription and making $150 a month ;) I think they have an audio trial though.. so check it out and see if it works for you. Shard.. hope you've exited your carry trade position.. it's the new year.. so jpy's coming back up :p ISM trade yesterday was crap.. hardly any deviation.. was a good thing I didn't enter. Just made 21 pips on the USD/CAD on the Canadian report.. loved it.. nice smooth ride. No whipsaw crap. Now for today's NFP. Am I trading? Yes.. I know i have to.. because it's fun. Be prepared for freezing platforms.. slippage, etc.. lol. I'm just trading with 10,000 units. It's pretty easy to wipe out a month's prots with one NFP trade. I probably won't even get my trade executed by cmc (btw.. they let me trade CAD with no problems) Good luck!
~Shard~
Quote:
01-05-2007 04:59 AM
Originally Posted by Music_Producer (Post 3211322) Shard.. hope you've exited your carry trade position.. it's the new year.. so jpy's coming back up :p
Yep! Believe it or not, I sold before the dip - exited at 94.67 actually. :) A combination of my technical analysis as well as a correct prediction on a correction in the commodities sector led me to pull the plug, and it was denitely the right call! Also made some nice money shorting oil... she's just below $55 as we speak...
Quote:
Originally Posted by Music_Producer (Post 3211322) Now for today's NFP. Am I trading? Yes.. I know i have to.. because it's fun. Be prepared for freezing platforms.. slippage, etc.. lol. I'm just trading with 10,000 units. It's pretty easy to wipe out a month's prots with one NFP trade. I probably won't even get my trade executed by cmc (btw.. they let me trade CAD with no problems) Good luck!
Yeah, I'll be trading it too, but only because it's so much fun. ;) :D I'll be using smaller lot sizes as well and we'll see what happens. I believe the #s are supposed to be lower than last months, so I guess I'll be prepared to SELL the USD, but who knows! I'll report back in after the trade and once I get to work. :cool:
Music_Producer
01-05-2007 05:11 AM
Yeah, apparently there are rumors ying around that it's going to be a bad number.. so I'm wondering if the markets are driving down the GBP/USD.. and then will pounce back with a vengeance with a bad NFP report. More than that, I am extremely wary of deviations. Stupid deviations can throw off even a horrible report and make the trade go the opposite way. Better be high on caffeine and get those trigger ngers ready!
9 of 10
1/15/08 8:23 PM
Music_Producer
01-05-2007 05:41 AM
54 god damn pips!!!!!! :D :D :D Imagine the prot if i had traded my regular size!!!! :mad: Man, this was the most fun I've ever had.
nhallmark
01-05-2007 05:49 AM
Damn!! That was smooth! I only made 9 pips(Im still working on my speed), but wow, no whipsaw and no revisions. Music_Producer, I assume the audio came out soon enough for you to catch the majority of the spike...I'll give it another week and then Im going to have to get the audio. 54 pips...Im jealous:D ;)
Music_Producer
01-05-2007 06:07 AM
Actually the audio came out just as the spike started.. I would have made 85 pips or so had the audio come out a little sooner. But this was a nice big drop.. and the deviation was massive. Additionally, there were rumors that the NFP report was going to come out poor.. so this was a double whammy. Hence.. the nice spike down with no whipsaws. :) Today's trades were terric.. I just calculated my CAD prot and it was actually 27 pips.. not 21. So 27+54 = 81 pips in less than 3 hours :D 9 pips is good.. you're lucky you even got in the trade! :eek: Most people can't (I get in about 10% of the time) I feel really really sorry for a lot of folks who apparently bought the GBP/USD a few seconds before the NFP report came out .. ouch. I don't rely on rumors.. I would rather wait for the actual report. You never know if the leak came from someone at the Feds or an ice-cream vendor at the beach!!!
~Shard~
01-05-2007 06:37 AM
Well done guys! I ended up just watching this one. :o I saw the initial spike down, then the next one down, and I was wary of popping in as I thought there might be some correction, whhipsaws, etc. As it turns out there wasn't, but hey, hindsight is 20/20. ;) So, I didn't pull the trigger this time, but there's always a "next time". ;) :cool: Any thoughts on the next US report coming out this morning? I think it's in about half an hour...

10 of 10
1/15/08 8:23 PM

nhallmark
01-05-2007 11:56 AM
One question-since the NFP was basically the opposite of the ADP report, is ADP going to have less of an effect next month?
Music_Producer
01-07-2007 03:06 AM
No nhallmark.. i think the adp report should move the market anyway (as long as its a nice deviation from the expected number) Never take anything for granted in this market.. even the dullest of reports can cause ripples if they turn out deviate by a big margin. For instance, no one really cares about UK consumer condence.. but once it deviated quite a bit.. and the pound dropped 90 pips. I missed that trade and since then I pay attention to every report.. well almost every report. I'm feeling more giddy about the macworld expo than trading at this point :D Here's hoping that they come out with quad core macbook pros.. :eek: (just kidding.. before i get beat by somebody!)
nhallmark
Quote:
01-07-2007 09:46 AM
Originally Posted by Music_Producer (Post 3217980) For instance, no one really cares about UK consumer condence.. but once it deviated quite a bit.. and the pound dropped 90 pips. I missed that trade and since then I pay attention to every report.. well almost every report.
Yeah, I've been ignoring the minor reports, but I'll start paying attention. I stopped watching USD/CAD because it never moved and then as soon as I stopped there were some good trades that I missed. Im keeping a log in iCal now so I can look back m/m to see what happened with each trade.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Music_Producer (Post 3217980) I'm feeling more giddy about the macworld expo than trading at this point :D Here's hoping that they come out with quad core macbook pros.. :eek: (just kidding.. before i get beat by somebody!)
Im right there with you.:D;)
nhallmark
1 of 13
01-10-2007 07:02 AM
1/15/08 8:23 PM
Um...right...so...uh about the uh...US trade bal...screw it-so what do you guys think about the iphone?!!! I woke up this morning thinking yesterday was a dream, and then I freaked out all over again when I remembered that it really happened. Did you guys see the other stocks(RIM, Palm, Moto, etc.)?:eek: That was crazy. If...Im sorry, WHEN the iphone takes over, do you think there might be a broker that will nally make a platform for the mac, since they make platforms for Blackberry? I dont want to trade on my phone, but Im thinking, if the iphone runs os x and they make a trading app for it, then 90% of the work would be done to port it to the mac. just a thought. I didnt trade the US trade balance this morning. It didnt deviate that much(because 1.8 billlion isnt "that much":p ) and it only moved about 10-15 pips initially. Anyway, I'll be trading every trade I can so I can get that phone!!:D ;) Nathan P.S. I am a little worried that steve said nothing about leapord or new mac hardware, but its the second week of the new year, so Im sure he'll pull through.
~Shard~
01-10-2007 09:51 AM
Yeah, the new iPhone looks pretty sweet. No mention of Mac updates, iLife, iWork or Leoaprd though, but all in good time. ;) Personally, I wouldn;t be surprised if iLife and/or iWork undergo some signicant updates/enhancements which will be incorporated into Leopard, thereby resulting in a tandem release. I guess time will tell... As for this morning, I traded the US #s and made 4 pips on a $100K lot - so $40 isn't bad. ;) I'm in my AUDJPY carry trade again and am about break even on it (including the interest) so I'll hold it until the BoJ announcement next week, let the dust (if any) settle, and decide where to go from there.
nhallmark
01-10-2007 04:45 PM
Im getting up early to trade the GBP and EUR interest rates tomorrow. forexfactory is saying they will stay the same. Have you guys heard anything to the contrary? Oh yeah, I went back and looked at the spike on the US #s after I woke up more and I realized that I even if I had got in at the very bottom and closed at the very top of the spike, I still would have lost money because oanda widened the spread to like 20 pips!!:eek: . The spread was wider than the actual spike. I really hope they dont do that again.
~Shard~
Quote:
01-10-2007 04:58 PM
Originally Posted by nhallmark (Post 3236715) Im getting up early to trade the GBP and EUR interest rates tomorrow. forexfactory is saying they will stay the same. Have you guys heard anything to the contrary?
2 of 13
1/15/08 8:23 PM
Not really, although there's always a ton of speculation out there. ;) Just remember, interest rate hikes = good for the currency since more people will want to invest in it. ;)
Quote:
Originally Posted by nhallmark (Post 3236715) Oh yeah, I went back and looked at the spike on the US #s after I woke up more and I realized that I even if I had got in at the very bottom and closed at the very top of the spike, I still would have lost money because oanda widened the spread to like 20 pips!!:eek: . The spread was wider than the actual spike. I really hope they dont do that again.
That pretty bad. I'm glad CMC has xed spreads. :cool: Oh, and I traded the AUD employment #s half an hour ago, in a manner of speaking. I was already into my carry trade for $50K (I got back in a couple days ago with a relatively small amount, just in case...) so I watched for the announcement (ready to bail if necessary!) but saw that it was positive, so I doubled down! :eek: :D So, a nice jump of almost 60 pips has made me a very happy Forex trader tonight! :D I sold half my position to take some money off the table and lock in some prot and will let the rest ride to see if there is further upswing or not - and if not, I'll just carry it for the interest. I'll probably put in a stop in case there is a signicant correction, just in case. Anyway, awesome day for me - a protable USD trade this morning and now this one! :D :cool:
Amber
This sounds very interesting. I've had a go with the demo play of a forex program before.
01-10-2007 05:28 PM
I'd really like to start trying with real money. Does anyone know of any goods sites to start off with? What program do you use to buy and sell? Also, how much does someone really need to start trading money wise?
~Shard~
Quote:
01-10-2007 06:01 PM
Originally Posted by Amber (Post 3236914) This sounds very interesting. I've had a go with the demo play of a forex program before. I'd really like to start trying with real money. Does anyone know of any goods sites to start off with? What program do you use to buy and sell?
Oanda is good for practice. The majority of us here use Oanda or CMC Markets (the latter being my platform of choice.)
3 of 13
1/15/08 8:23 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Amber (Post 3236914) Also, how much does someone really need to start trading money wise?
Very tough question. Don't trade with any more than you're willing to lose. And please, I beg of you, make sure you fully understand the concepts of margin and leverage. Otherwise you could end up in a world of hurt. On the one hand, due to margin, you don't need a lot of money, but this can also get you into lots of trouble. I would recommend starting off with a small amount of money, concentrate on making only a few dollars here and there, and slowly double your initial investment. Sue, it might be only doubling it form $50 to $100, which may not seem like a lot (not enough to retire on, that's for sure! ;) :D) but it's an important rst step. With the trading that myself and Music_Prodcuer do for instance, we're essentially risking hundreds of dollars every second. If things went really wrong for us on a trade we could lose $1000 in a minute! :eek: Anyway, I would recommend reading through the entire thread. It may be long, but it will answer a lot of your questions and be educational. Any other questions, please by all means post them here and we'll be happy to help you out. :cool: Edit: As for informative sites, just do a Google search. Also, you can try out these sites. This is an excellent book as well in my opinion. :cool:
Amber
01-10-2007 06:42 PM
Thanks! Some good stuff to keep me going there. Right now I'm not working. I make all my money buying and selling items. Stuff from carboots, ebay, charity shops and make money on them. It's not loads but it's nice to know I'm living off my own instinct and ipping everything I buy. I think it's interesting to follow what's going on the world to predict how it will effect currency.
~Shard~
Absolutely! It's not easy though.
01-10-2007 06:53 PM
In terms of economic data, here are two sites where you can view calendars so you know what announcements are coming up and when. That's one of the things I like about forex trading - barring the unpredictable world events obviously, you know which announcements are released, what time and what the analysts are expecting. That makes trading on fact very easy to do and you don't have to get into the whole speculation game that is the stock market for the most part (trust me, I've lived there for many many years now.. ;) :cool: ) Plus, stocks can go to zero or move signicantly in pre-market when you don't have a chance to act - the forex market is open 24/7 almost! For me I nd forex trading it is a nice balance between stock, equity and index trading. And it gives me a bigger picture on how everything is interrelated, which enables me to capitalize in many different ways. For example, the USD has an inverse relationship with Gold, so if the US announces a rate cut, I'll sell USD, buy Gold, probably buy an Oil futures contract and act on the S&P500 as well. :cool: As I said, any other questions, feel free to ask.
4 of 13
1/15/08 8:23 PM
Music_Producer
01-10-2007 09:55 PM
Ahh, I missed out on that AUD trade today :mad: Completely forgot about it! Made 15 pips on the UK report (Trade balance).. zero on the US trade balance because I got a re-quote.. don't think I would have made anything anyway as it was a no trade. But yeah, that iphone is sweet! I think I was quite distracted while trading (which is why i made only 15 pips instead of 25-30).. I kept dreaming about it, 8 core mac pros, steve jobs inviting me for lunch and making me his successor and so on.. lol. I was actually hoping that the iphone would have video iChat capabilities.. like folks in the far east have (video calling) Why the heck is mobile technology so slow here? Shard.. nice trades! I know that feeling.. when you make more than one protable trade in a single day :) JPY is getting weaker again.. haha.. poor thing can never stay up for long. Hmm if AUD raises rates to 8% one day.. I think japan will run out of yen :D Today (or tomorrow rather) I'll be trading the UK report at 1.30 am PST.. interest rates.. as always, I'll be ready. I don't think there is going to be any change.. but if there is.. I will trade accordingly.
Music_Producer
68 pips on GBP Rate Hike!!!!
01-11-2007 04:14 AM
I knew those BOE guys have a tendency to shock the markets!!!! They hiked the rate from 5% to 5.25%.. 68 pips on a HUGE A$$ lot.. (it went to 150 pips.. and then came down quick.. by the time i got out i nabbed 68) Right now I want to get naked and run on the streets!!!!! :D :D :D :D :D
nhallmark
Quote:
01-11-2007 04:14 AM
Originally Posted by Music_Producer (Post 3237843) I was actually hoping that the iphone would have video iChat capabilities.. like folks in the far east have (video calling) Why the heck is mobile technology so slow here?
One of my friends is a manager at cingular(read: I get a discount) and he is always bitching about europe and asia and how they give them all the cool phones rst and we get the leftovers. But, Im sure they'll have iChat at some point, just like they added photos, video, etc. to the ipod. Anyway, I made 30 pips on the GBP Interest rate;) :D !!! Thats the most Ive ever made in one trade, so far. Im glad I got up early.:)
Music_Producer
01-11-2007 04:16 AM
Damn, I still can't believe I didn't get out when it was at 150 pips... whooo.. I think I was just like 'huh?' Man, this just woke me up! Hopefully let's see if the EUR interest rates shock everyone too (generally no.. because ECB is quite boring) I love the Bank of England and I love the Brits. This is how George Soros made his billion in one day.. (and I could have too.. if I had the funds to trade with) Ahhhh.. satised :)
5 of 13
1/15/08 8:23 PM
Music_Producer
01-11-2007 04:35 AM
Way to go nathan! If that spike had lasted a longer time, we would have made much more.. but there must have been tons of prot taking in a few seconds. Stay alert for the ECB rate decision.
nhallmark
01-11-2007 04:50 AM
Thanks,Music_Producer. Ive emailed tradethenews about getting a trial of the audio so hopefully, I can work my way up to that 68 pips!!:D . Yeah, EUR didnt move. I was thinking I would get up this morning, both of them would come out as expected and I would go back to sleep. But, that GBP rate hike woke me up!! Now, Im all excited but the fun is already over.:p
Music_Producer
01-11-2007 04:52 AM
No change in eur rates, so obviously a no-trade. It was a little amusing to watch the EUR/USD climb up though.. in anticipation of a rate hike. Anyway, next important trade is tomorrow US Retail Sales report. I won't be trading the ECB chief's speech.. because i hate trading speeches.
~Shard~
01-11-2007 07:10 AM
Well done guys! I managed to nab 25 pips myself on the GBP trade, so not too shabby being that I wans;t prepared and not using a proper news service! ;) :D Unfortunately I only had my default $50K lot going since I wasn't expecting a hike, but hey, no need to get too greedy! I also woke up to nd my AUDJPY carry trade is doing even better now - she's over 94, up roughly 150 pips in the past couple of days! I have a stop in to protect my prots, but otherwise I'll let it ride. I'll have to look at my economic calendar - when is the next really busy week in terms of major announcements? I should sign up for my free week trial of tradethenews during that week to make the most of it. ;) :cool:
nhallmark
01-11-2007 08:36 PM
OK, So I've got a question - assuming Im an experienced trader, would it be reasonable to expect to make 300 pips a month? It just occured to me that if you make 300 pips a month and you're trading on a 50:1 margin, you would roughly double your account balance every month. And then it occured to me that if that worked and I took the equity from my house to trade on which is roughly $20K(not very smart, but just follow me), I would make something like 36.4 MILLION dollars in 1 year.:eek: and after two years I would be a billionare at the ripe old age of 22!!! :eek: :eek: :eek: But Im sure Im missing something, and theres probably a cap on how much you can trade on margin or something. Anyway, its just a thought I had. Any feedback?
6 of 13
1/15/08 8:23 PM
Music_Producer
01-11-2007 08:58 PM
It is possible to make 300 pips a month nathan.. but obviously that depends on how many economic reports are to be released in that month, the general trading volume (during the holiday season it gets really weak) and your broker execution. I know its just a thought.. but do NOT get a loan, or home equity.. even if it's just a hypothetical calculation. You will be stressed in a manner that's hard to explain.. you will then be forced to make so many pips so as to cover your payments, etc. It's best to trade with 10% or so of your savings (that's my theory) There's really no cap or anything as to the volume you can trade with.. but if you're planning on trading with big money (like hedge funds do) you'll be better off with an ECN broker that provides Currenex, or FXall, etc. They provide solutions for banks and individual fund managers.. so you can be assured that you will get better execution. Also, it would then be imperative to get a bloomberg or reuters news platform.. trade the news won't cut it. But, yes, it is possible to make 300 pips in a month, and to double your account. My modest goal is 5% a month, but I frequently exceed that. This month my return is 124% so far.. but one bad trade (especially with a huge lot) could bring that number down. So you would have to exercise caution when trading highly volatile events like Non Farm Payroll, or any report which can cause whipsaws. They can make you rich.. or make you go bust. I prefer trading highly volatile reports with a small lot.. and regular reports with bigger lots. That would be the one reason why my prots have been consistent. And that I have developed, by now.. crazy trigger ngers :eek: If you do become a billionaire you owe me and Shard a couple of millions each for prodding you on :D :p
Music_Producer
01-11-2007 09:01 PM
Wait nathan.. lol.. you got your math wrong. You make 36 million in 1 year.. so in 3 years total..you will have made $108 million. $100 million is not a billion $.. its $1000 million (one thousand million) that makes a billion! So when you realize that Soros made a billion pounds (or almost 2 billion $) that's - 2,000 *million* dollars. In one day. That's why he's probably like the 'God of forex traders' .. atleast to me :)
nhallmark
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01-11-2007 09:18 PM
Originally Posted by Music_Producer (Post 3242100) I know its just a thought.. but do NOT get a loan, or home equity.. even if it's just a hypothetical calculation. You will be stressed in a manner that's hard to explain.. you will then be forced to make so many pips so as to cover your payments, etc. It's best to trade with 10% or so of your savings (that's my theory)
If I actually did that, it would be from selling my house, so I wouldnt be paying it back and its money I wouldnt have otherwise. In other words, I can get buy without it.
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7 of 13
1/15/08 8:23 PM
If you do become a billionaire you owe me and Shard a couple of millions each for prodding you on :D :p
No problem!!!:D
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Originally Posted by Music_Producer (Post 3242108) Wait nathan.. lol.. you got your math wrong. You make 36 million in 1 year.. so in 3 years total..you will have made $108 million. $100 million is not a billion $.. its $1000 million (one thousand million) that makes a billion!
That's if you're adding. If I made 36 million in one year by doubling my account balance every MONTH, then by month 13 I would be at 72 million, month 14 = 144 million, month 15 = 288 million, etc. right?:confused:
Music_Producer
01-11-2007 11:14 PM
Ahh.. then yes, you are right.. I was simply adding. I didn't do the math by doubling the account bit.. but it seems like you would reach a billion. Well, get there fast!! :) Would be even better if that money was earning interest all the time.
Music_Producer
1 Attachment(s)
01-12-2007 05:42 AM
Traded this one on Oanda and proted about 11 pips because of the spread. CMC has been behaving erratically today.. so I didn't want to risk trading on it. It kept freezing.. and then shutting down. Oanda's spread was just nuts.. 20 pip on GBP/USD. Anyway, a small prot is better compared to a platform that was glitchy. How did you guys do? God, I love Oanda's execution and no re-quote crap.. but their spreads are just too much. Although yesterday, I am sure it was worth it because of the pound's huge move. Attachment 66074
nhallmark
01-12-2007 06:28 AM
That's funny that you were having those problems with CMC because 5 minutes before the trade, my window kept disappearing and I had to go log back in 2-3 times.(with oanda on my game account) So, when it came time to trade, I clicked and it took at least ten seconds before it executed and usually when it does that, they will still ll you in at the original quote but this time, when it nally went through, it lled in at the very bottom of the spike and when I realized it I closed, making a loss of 7 pips. I assume that they dont do that with a real account. Im going to start trading $2(50:1, so a pip is 1 cent) on monday in my real account just to see if it does that. Im pissed because, yesterday, ttn gave me the free audio trial for a week and this was my rst chance to use
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1/15/08 8:23 PM
it. Looking back, I cant think of anything I did wrong(like taking time to think, etc.) He announced the #s and I clicked. I logged in to my real account after the trade to compare and it seems they only widened the spread on the real accounts this time. So, real accounts = insane spread, game accounts = retarded execution.(i know it isnt like this every time, im just pissed:mad: ) Whatever. Hopefully it wont happen again.
Music_Producer
01-12-2007 06:59 AM
Nathan, the Oanda game account is nothing compared to the live trading account. The live account is obviously stable (except during nfp.. some nfps) , but yes.. the spreads are there. They did reduce them to 20 though.. initially they used to be 25. I really like Oanda's execution.. with CMC you might make 50% of all trades.. as you will get a re-quote. Both have their pros and cons.. but I like the fact that Oanda keeps paying you interest on a daily basis.
~Shard~
01-12-2007 07:27 AM
Traded the retail sales #s this morning, made 2 pips on CMC - not much movement, really. $20 is better than nothing though. ;) So nhallmark, ttn gave you a free audio trial as well? So if I sign up for a free trial for their news service, I can then essentially sign up again and get another week free using their audio service? Or did you have to contact them directly to get that free audio trial?
nhallmark
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01-12-2007 07:41 AM
Originally Posted by ~Shard~ (Post 3243336) So nhallmark, ttn gave you a free audio trial as well? So if I sign up for a free trial for their news service, I can then essentially sign up again and get another week free using their audio service? Or did you have to contact them directly to get that free audio trial?
I signed up for the free trial back at the end of november and they let it run at least three weeks before ending it. When you sign up, the trial is for everything(text, audio, etc. for forex, stocks, etc.). Then I started paying the $40 a month for just the forex text news. I never really used the audio in my trial because I was still guring all this out. Then, Music_Producer said he used the audio, so I emailed ttn and asked if they would let me try the audio for a few days because I didnt get to use it the rst time and they are now giving me free audio until the 19th.:) So, I guess you could do the same thing. They are really nice about everything.
~Shard~
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01-12-2007 07:45 AM
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1/15/08 8:23 PM
Originally Posted by nhallmark (Post 3243369) I signed up for the free trial back at the end of november and they let it run at least three weeks before ending it. When you sign up, the trial is for everything(text, audio, etc. for forex, stocks, etc.). Then I started paying the $40 a month for just the forex text news. I never really used the audio in my trial because I was still guring all this out. Then, Music_Producer said he used the audio, so I emailed ttn and asked if they would let me try the audio for a few days because I didnt get to use it the rst time and they are now giving me free audio until the 19th.:) So, I guess you could do the same thing. They are really nice about everything.
Wow, that's really great customer service, good to know, thanks. :cool: Hopefully I'll get lucky and end up with longer than a week on my trial as well, and then perhaps I'll try and squeeze a little more out of them like you did as well for the audio peice by pleading ignorance. :o ;)
Martinus
01-14-2007 09:14 PM
You guys have written so much about Forex. I'm quite impressed by the level of commitment you have for teaching others about forex. I've read all 34 pages so far. Just replying to tell you all that you're doing a great job. Keep it up.
Music_Producer
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01-15-2007 12:28 AM
Originally Posted by Martinus (Post 3252018) You guys have written so much about Forex. I'm quite impressed by the level of commitment you have for teaching others about forex. I've read all 34 pages so far. Just replying to tell you all that you're doing a great job. Keep it up.
You're welcome.. and by the way, I'm doubly impressed that you have read all the pages :eek: :D Shard, you still in your carry trade? I exited today.. at 94.50. Today's report is the UK PPI, but it might not be that exciting because trading volume will be low (US holiday)
foidulus
Would using FOREX be a good way to start
01-15-2007 01:16 AM
saving money for a move to the country that uses said currency? I am considering going to Japan to attend grad school and I would like to try to take advantage of the current strength of the dollar visa vis the yen. If I buy a whole bunch of yen using forex, can I get that money back in yen? Or would I have to convert it back to USD then withdraw yen at an ATM for example? Also, is it possible to earn interest on your forex holdings? I mean, could I use it to start a euro denominated bank account?
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Martinus
01-15-2007 05:02 AM
From what I understand, there is a base currency in your forex account. You input money into your account from this currency (USD for example), and can only retrieve money via that currency. If I'm wrong, please correct me. This may have changed. Not sure why you want a Euro based bank account, but you can easily open one at most major North American banks. Just walk into the branch you deal with and tell them you want to open a Euro account. They will likely ask for a higher monthly fee and a minimum deposit. It is possible to gain interest on currency currently in a trade (for the full value of the trade, not just the amount you have invested. It has been suggested that a buy order on the Aussie dollar from Yen would yeild a 6% interest rate differential. If you do this, use Oanda as it offers daily interest. Also make sure to keep a large amount of currency unused to account for dips. If you're going for grad school, it might be best to open a Japanese Bank Account while you're there, and make one big conversion at the start. From there, you can put your money into forex if you would like to assume some risk. Retrieving money from a foreign ATM often costs lots of money. $5-$10 per transaction is standard. Having a Japanese account will x this problem. I don't know Japanese Banking law at all, but you might have problems opening an account as a foreigner. Make sure to consult your grad school about opening an account.
~Shard~
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01-15-2007 05:44 AM
Originally Posted by Music_Producer (Post 3252426) Shard, you still in your carry trade? I exited today.. at 94.50.
Nope, my stop hit last night while I was asleep @ 94.60. She seems to have pulled back a bit today, so I think I'll just watch it for now. There's the BoJ announcement Thursday too, so not sure if I want to be in the carry trade when that news comes out - you never know what might happen. That being said, I'll denitely be ready to trade it the second the news hits. ;)
Music_Producer
01-16-2007 03:31 PM
19 pips on the GBP/USD trade (UK CPI report) .. although the pound hit 1.9705 and then there was a massive selling session (probably prot-taking) which drove it down to almost 1.9600 during the US session. ZEW sentiment report only got me 5 pips.. didn't move much anyway.. was given a 're-quote' for the US Empire State Business Conditions Index. It seems like CMC lets me trade the UK reports.. but when it's US reports.. I get re-quoted all the time. Apparently a lot more people trade the us reports than the uk ones.. so maybe there is just too much volatility at that time. Canadian interest rates were left untouched. We have a busy week.. tomorrow is US PPI and TIC reports. I just realized as I'm typing this.. I sound rather dull (as compared to - i made 19 pips today! woo hoo!) I'm so sleepy, and it's abnormally cold here in CA (20 degrees this morning when i was trading) I just want to sleep all day :o
nhallmark
01-16-2007 05:38 PM
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Originally Posted by Music_Producer (Post 3258811) 19 pips on the GBP/USD trade (UK CPI report) .. although the pound hit 1.9705 and then there was a massive selling session (probably prot-taking) which drove it down to almost 1.9600 during the US session.
I got up at 3am yesterday and today(for PPI and CPI) and Ive counted 6 trades so far that Ive sat out on. I was ready to trade CPI this morning but when it came out 3.0 V 2.9E I decided to watch because it was so close and ttn was reporting a lot about which way it would go. Now, I see you made money so I wish I would have went for it, but Im playing it safe.
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Originally Posted by Music_Producer (Post 3258811) I just realized as I'm typing this.. I sound rather dull (as compared to - i made 19 pips today! woo hoo!) I'm so sleepy, and it's abnormally cold here in CA (20 degrees this morning when i was trading) I just want to sleep all day :o
Yeah, its about 27 here...it sucks and I would wager that Shard isnt that thrilled about it, being in Canada and all :p Anyway, Im getting really impatient because Ive sat out on six trades and I changed my sleep schedule to catch more trades, so Im dying to just click "buy" but I might as well quit it all together if I did that. So, Im deciding whether to get up again at 3am, tomorrow morning for GBP "Claimant count change", Average Earnings, and unemployment rate. I haven't traded that before(the UK #S), so is it worth it to get up?
~Shard~
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01-16-2007 08:19 PM
Originally Posted by Music_Producer (Post 3258811) 19 pips on the GBP/USD trade (UK CPI report) .. although the pound hit 1.9705 and then there was a massive selling session (probably prot-taking) which drove it down to almost 1.9600 during the US session.
Nice one Music_Producer! I made 7 pips on the Empire Survey myself this morning... Man, I need to get tradethenews going, I'm trading handicapped without some type of news service - I think I'll assign up in the next week or so.... :cool:
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12 of 13
1/15/08 8:23 PM
it's abnormally cold here in CA (20 degrees this morning when i was trading) I just want to sleep all day :o
nhallmark is right, you have nothing to complain about - it warmed up today to about -20 Celsius. :eek: :p Actually, in all honesty, it's not that bad. A couple weeks ago it was above zero here which was really nice for this time of year. I don't mind the cold at all, but I suppose if you're not used it it.... :o ;) I'll be trading the PPI numbers tomorrow - we'll see what happens... :cool:
Music_Producer
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01-16-2007 11:52 PM
Originally Posted by ~Shard~ (Post 3259563) nhallmark is right, you have nothing to complain about - it warmed up today to about -20 Celsius. :eek: :p Actually, in all honesty, it's not that bad. A couple weeks ago it was above zero here which was really nice for this time of year. I don't mind the cold at all, but I suppose if you're not used it it.... :o ;) I'll be trading the PPI numbers tomorrow - we'll see what happens... :cool:
Holy crap!!! With those sort of temperatures.. no matter what news platform you have, your brain will still lag :p :D nhallmark.. the UK reports are not worth waking up for today, only the US ones. Good luck everybody!
Music_Producer
01-17-2007 05:35 AM
Got a re-quote :mad: Pisses me off when I stay up all night and then they don't let my trade go through.. could have made an easy 20 pips.

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nhallmark
01-17-2007 05:44 AM
I lost 6 pips because oanda widened the spread to 20 again.:mad: I should have waited because GBP/USD dropped another 10-15 pips after they lowered the spread.
Music_Producer
01-17-2007 05:52 AM
Nathan, what's odd is that they didn't raise the spread of the EUR/USD.. only that of the GBP/USD. The report wasn't that great to make a huge move.. the deviation was there.. but not that much. With Oanda, you have to take into account the atrocious 20 pip spread (sometimes 25) so you better pray for a big move to make some prot. I suppose a no-trade because of a re-quote is better than a trade with a 20 pip loss rightaway :eek: Edit : TIC report next
Music_Producer
16 pips on the TIC report.. thank goodness I can nally get some sleep!! :D
01-17-2007 06:18 AM
nhallmark
01-17-2007 06:19 AM
Yeah...same thing just happened with TIC. Lost 10 pips. And Im trading real money too.(1 pip=1 cent) Its funny how they rarely raise the spreads on the game accounts to get you in and then once you start for real, its like "WTF? I did everything right and I lost money":mad: Im about ready to change brokers now.;)
Music_Producer
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01-17-2007 06:34 AM
Originally Posted by nhallmark (Post 3260473) Yeah...same thing just happened with TIC. Lost 10 pips. And Im trading real money too.(1 pip=1 cent) Its funny how they rarely raise the spreads on the game accounts to get you in and then once you start for real, its like "WTF? I did everything right and I lost money":mad: Im about ready to change brokers now.;)
Lol.. true, almost true of every business actually. I was quite mad at rst when I discovered this (they started jacking up their spreads since mid-2006.. before that, it was always 2-3 pip spread.. even during news)
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1/15/08 8:24 PM
~Shard~
Only had time to trade the PPI this morning and made a modest 4 pips. :)
01-17-2007 08:32 AM
nhallmark
01-17-2007 10:16 AM
OK, so I opened an account with CMC and Im waiting on oanda to withdraw my money. In the mean time, I also opened a demo account with CMC so I can get used to their platform. The sane thing would be to try out CMC before I go opening a real account with them, but I've counted 8 trades since monday that I would have traded if oanda 's spreads would allow you to actually make money(what a concept!) :rolleyes: So, I'll use the CMC demo account for the rest of this week and next and then I will start back with real money(although CMC's minimum is $10K so I guess I'll start at $1 a pip). I would rather get requotes and be able to trade at least 1% of the time than never.
nhallmark
01-17-2007 02:49 PM
One of you guys could have made $500 off of me...if Im protable. I just got off the phone with CMC. They were really nice..much better than oanda. Anyway, the guy said if I had any friends that I could refer them to CMC and if they open an account and start trading more than 1 lot, they would give me $500. So, I dont know if they give you an afliate link or if you are supposed to tell them the name of the person that refered you. Either way, did you guys not know about that?
~Shard~
01-17-2007 05:33 PM
Phone back and tell them that myself and Music_Producer jointly referred you and that we each want $250 in our accounts. :p ;) And for that matter while we're at it, I think you need to phone them back too Muisc_Producer and get me another $500. :eek: ;) :D Yeah, the guy I dealt with encouraged me to get other people signed up and so forth, but never mentioned any incentives - I just assumed it was standard sales tactics. But yes, they have always had excellent customer service every time I've dealt with them. I hope your experience with them is a good one. :cool:
Music_Producer
More like, make them pay $500 for every re-quote :D
01-17-2007 05:39 PM
Music_Producer
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01-17-2007 05:44 PM
Originally Posted by nhallmark (Post 3262147) One of you guys could have made $500 off of me...if Im protable. I just got off the phone with CMC. They were really nice..much better than oanda. Anyway, the guy said if I had any friends that I could refer them to CMC and if they open an account and start trading more than 1 lot, they would
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1/15/08 8:24 PM
give me $500. So, I dont know if they give you an afliate link or if you are supposed to tell them the name of the person that refered you. Either way, did you guys not know about that?
No, we never got that sales pitch.. oh well, but yeah, Shard deserves all the afliate income :) Someone suggested Dukascopy but I just looked at their commission and went 'Nahhhh..' We need to get hired by a bank, so we can make money for them (and ourselves) ;)
~Shard~
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01-17-2007 05:44 PM
Originally Posted by Music_Producer (Post 3262718) More like, make them pay $500 for every re-quote :D
Heh heh - yeah, I wonder how they'd feel about that... ;) I see that the AUDJPY has crossed 95 - I wonder if it will hold? The Japan leading indicators report comes out in a few hours, and tomorrow is BoJ day - I wonder how that might affect it... Just not sure if now is a good time to pop back into a carry trade or not... There's a lot of US data tomorrow being reported all at the same time - will you still be trading Music_Producer or do you think there will be conicting reports?
~Shard~
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01-17-2007 05:48 PM
Originally Posted by Music_Producer (Post 3262733) We need to get hired by a bank, so we can make money for them (and ourselves) ;)
I wonder how we could go about that... What if we wrote a Business Plan and presented it to them, outlining our plans for making them (and ourselves!) money citing our experience and successes? Hmm, or are all those types of rms only interested in hiring people with CFAs and MBAs? :rolleyes:
Music_Producer
01-17-2007 06:15 PM
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Originally Posted by ~Shard~ (Post 3262747) I wonder how we could go about that... What if we wrote a Business Plan and presented it to them, outlining our plans for making them (and ourselves!) money citing our experience and successes? Hmm, or are all those types of rms only interested in hiring people with CFAs and MBAs? :rolleyes:
Only CFAs and MBAs and people with trading licenses. Haven't you noticed that all the Wall Street 'experts' and 'analysts' come out with such retarded data? Makes me wonder how the hell they get hired and paid. :rolleyes: I'll be trading the US core CPI.. if there are major conicts I'll just exit right away. If JPY does not raise interest rates today, then look for AUD/JPY crossing 96.
~Shard~
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01-17-2007 06:46 PM
Originally Posted by Music_Producer (Post 3262839) Only CFAs and MBAs and people with trading licenses. Haven't you noticed that all the Wall Street 'experts' and 'analysts' come out with such retarded data? Makes me wonder how the hell they get hired and paid. :rolleyes:
Yeah, I know what you mean. The more and more experience I get in trading the markets I realize that those "experts" aren't a bunch of all-knowing oracles with amazing skills and knowledge - we could do it just as well in my opinion. And my broker (which I only use for special investments I can't do on my own such as IPOs and real estate ventures or limited partnerships of that nature) is honestly nothing more than a salesman. That's all he is. It is my belief that all "investment advisors" are simply salespeople. A mutual fund company comes through town, offers incentives for their product and then the salespeople start pushing it, not because it's a good product but because they'll make the most commission on it. :rolleyes: Same with "personal banking ofcers" or whatever term they use these days. Credit cards, mortgages, lines of credit, funds, they are all simply vehicles which they are peddling and it all comes down to sales and commissions.
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Originally Posted by Music_Producer (Post 3262839) I'll be trading the US core CPI.. if there are major conicts I'll just exit right away. If JPY does not raise interest rates today, then look for AUD/JPY crossing 96.
Sounds like a good plan - I'll be watching things very closely tomorrow. :cool:
nhallmark
01-17-2007 08:46 PM
I'll be attempting to trade with my CMC demo account tomorrow. I think Im going to have just the "single instrument window"(I read up on the user manual:p) open, the oanda chart open, and tradethenews.
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Im not sure how much sense that setup makes, but its weird going from oanda to this, so Im going to try to have the oanda chart open until I get comfortable trading without it. That's weird that CMC didnt say anything to you guys. Maybe they just started it. Anyway, good luck tomorrow. :)
Music_Producer
01-18-2007 01:44 AM
Well no JPY rate hike and AUD/JPY went up by 75 pips or so.. right now at 95.78. Sucks, I didn't get in because there was no specic time as to when the BOJ would announce the rate decision. Just some rumors that there was no rate hike.. but I don't trade on rumors.
Music_Producer
01-18-2007 06:41 AM
10 pips on the US report :p The CPI came out as forecast.. no deviations.. but the housing numbers gave the USD a little edge. As I'm writing this it seems like the USD is taking a beating..GBP's gone up to 1.9710. Maybe the market is disappointed because the cpi number might indicate that there is no need to hike USD interest rate.
~Shard~
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01-18-2007 06:48 AM
Originally Posted by Music_Producer (Post 3263743) Well no JPY rate hike and AUD/JPY went up by 75 pips or so.. right now at 95.78. Sucks, I didn't get in because there was no specic time as to when the BOJ would announce the rate decision. Just some rumors that there was no rate hike.. but I don't trade on rumors.
Yeah, it was the same for me - I missed the announcement, and now I wonder if there's going to be a pullback or not. Ah well, I'll keep me eye on it and when it appears to stabalize a bit I might pop in again - I might do half now, half later just in case and just so I'm in the game at least. No trade on the CPI this morning - #s were pretty much as expected, although BPs were signicantly higher than expectations. After the announcement I decided to try something a little different and a bit more risky in some respects - I decided to apply some of my technical analysis and so forth and try a long position in the EURUSD. As opposed to trading the news and having trades last a few seconds, I'm going to experiment with a couple different strategies (with small lots of course) and see if I can be protable on "longer" trades (i.e. perhaps a few hours) based some of my experience with indicators, etc. We'll see how it goes! :cool:
~Shard~
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01-18-2007 06:56 AM
Originally Posted by Music_Producer (Post 3264176) 10 pips on the US report :p The CPI came out as forecast.. no deviations.. but the housing numbers gave the USD a little edge. As I'm writing this it seems like the USD is taking a beating..GBP's gone
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up to 1.9710. Maybe the market is disappointed because the cpi number might indicate that there is no need to hike USD interest rate.
Yeah, I actually just checked the EURUSD pair and it looks like I'm already out of my trade! :eek: I bought after the announcement at 1.2920 and had a stop in at 1.2950. I'll take that... ;) Perhaps it was sheer luck (as I appreciate how volitile the currnecy market is) but I'm going to carry out a few more experiements based on my investing knowledge from the stock market and see how it translates... :cool:
~Shard~
01-18-2007 07:27 AM
Oh, and nhallmark, not sure where you're at with CMC and the real account, but besides the minimum account balance required, I believe CMC enforces minimum lot sizes. I'm not sure, but this might impact you if you were initially only wanting to trade small lot sizes - CMC might not let you trade anything smaller than a $10K lot, for example. Just something to be aware of...
nhallmark
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01-18-2007 10:33 AM
Originally Posted by ~Shard~ (Post 3264274) Oh, and nhallmark, not sure where you're at with CMC and the real account, but besides the minimum account balance required, I believe CMC enforces minimum lot sizes. I'm not sure, but this might impact you if you were initially only wanting to trade small lot sizes - CMC might not let you trade anything smaller than a $10K lot, for example. Just something to be aware of...
Yeah, I posted about that earlier. With oanda, I was going to start out trading $2.50 or so(with 50:1 leverage on EUR/USD, its $100, so 1 pip=1 cent), but CMC's minimum is $10K so I guess I'll be starting at $1 a pip, which is a little uncomfortable starting out, but it will be ok because if I lose too much, I dont need to be trading with real money anyway. Oh, by the way, is there a way to change your leverage with CMC? Or is it 100:1 across the board? I cant seem to nd anything in the user manual about it.
nhallmark
01-19-2007 01:39 AM
Just made 20 pips on UK retail sales!!:D ...with CMC, and I was using the text news on ttn because I just woke up at 3am(central) to trade this and my audio is back to "empty channel" so I guess my trial is over. Anyway, I'll call them in the morning and sign up for the audio because its denetly worth it. ForexFactory says US consumer sentiment at 9am(central) is high impact. Is that true, or did someone enter it wrong? I seem to remember it not having much of an effect last time. OK, now Im going back to sleep...:cool:
Music_Producer
01-19-2007 02:00 AM
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1/15/08 8:24 PM
27 pips on the UK retail sales. Had a little trouble closing the trade, and wasted about 10-15 pips because of that delay.. but as long as it's a prot, all good. :D Shard.. excellent technical trading skills, I wish it worked for me. Btw, I hate analysts because of a stock trade in which I lost $16,000. A bunch of 'experts' and analysts working for various nancial rms were recommending this telecom company, and their decision was unanimous (you know - increased growth, blah blah..) So I bought that stock and in 2 days they led for bankruptcy. I think I lost about 90% of my money on that day.. and just let the rest slide because when you've lost most of it.. you just can't close your position. You freeze.. Turns out that Amaranth invested most of their funds in oil upon an 'analysis' by goldmann sachs that oil would hit $100. :rolleyes: I thought that Amaranth's analysts or trade executives are morons for making a decision to invest most of their funds in one commodity.. but i thought it was *their* decision. They are even bigger idiots for trading based on goldmann sachs' prediction! How stupid is that? Since then I keep reading what analysts' say and they're wrong 95% of the time. Its amusing. It must be nice to have their job, make the money and spew out any nonsense just to make a sales pitch. I wonder if the companies they promote pay them heavily ;) Nathan, it's going to be a bit unnerving when you start trading bigger lots. It took me a long time to get to trading 100,000 units.. I was stuck at 70,000. Now I'm bored trading 100,000-500,000 units. When I trade a million units.. that's when I have my emergency cardiac debrillator standing by :eek: But you are practicing on the cmc demo account rst right?
Music_Producer
Quote:
01-19-2007 02:03 AM
Originally Posted by nhallmark (Post 3267222) Just made 20 pips on UK retail sales!!:D ...with CMC, and I was using the text news on ttn because I just woke up at 3am(central) to trade this and my audio is back to "empty channel" so I guess my trial is over. Anyway, I'll call them in the morning and sign up for the audio because its denetly worth it. ForexFactory says US consumer sentiment at 9am(central) is high impact. Is that true, or did someone enter it wrong? I seem to remember it not having much of an effect last time. OK, now Im going back to sleep...:cool:
Hey!! Sweet!! :D US consumer sentiment is high impact.. but i'm not trading it. I need to catch up on my sleep and I think I've made a decent amount for the day. Ahh.. looking forward to sleep all weekend. Nathan, i don't think you're going to get much sleep, you're going to be excited about your 20 pip prot :p
nhallmark
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01-19-2007 04:34 PM
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1/15/08 8:24 PM
Originally Posted by Music_Producer (Post 3267243) Since then I keep reading what analysts' say and they're wrong 95% of the time. Its amusing. It must be nice to have their job, make the money and spew out any nonsense just to make a sales pitch. I wonder if the companies they promote pay them heavily ;)
There was a mac news site I used to go to and the "analysts" kept reporting that the "ipod will fail" etc. and nally someone broke up the word "analysts" with a "c" and started calling them "anal cysts":p
Quote:
Originally Posted by Music_Producer (Post 3267243) Nathan, it's going to be a bit unnerving when you start trading bigger lots. It took me a long time to get to trading 100,000 units.. I was stuck at 70,000. Now I'm bored trading 100,000-500,000 units. When I trade a million units.. that's when I have my emergency cardiac debrillator standing by :eek: But you are practicing on the cmc demo account rst right?
Yeah, I'll proably trade with the demo account throughout next week and then start with real money on the rst.
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Originally Posted by Music_Producer (Post 3267246) Nathan, i don't think you're going to get much sleep, you're going to be excited about your 20 pip prot :p
Yeah, I didn't get back to sleep until 5:30am after laying back down at 4am. The lack of sleep didnt help because I spent all day trying to get my money to CMC. I HATE my bank. I could go on with horror stories Ive had with them. I even had to le a police report on them once...but I dont want to sit here and type for an hour, so Ill leave it at that. The only reason I havent closed my account is because we are planning on moving to los angeles later this year and I need to show a long term bank account for credit reasons. Its Washington Mutual, in case youre wondering.:rolleyes:
Music_Producer
Quote:
01-19-2007 04:46 PM
Originally Posted by nhallmark (Post 3269290) There was a mac news site I used to go to and the "analysts" kept reporting that the "ipod will fail" etc. and nally someone broke up the word "analysts" with a "c" and started calling them "anal cysts":p
LMAOOOO.. yeah, now I hate how they're banging on the iPhone without even trying it out. Losers :rolleyes:
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1/15/08 8:24 PM
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Originally Posted by nhallmark (Post 3269290) Its Washington Mutual, in case youre wondering.:rolleyes:
No need to explain further.. I opened a checkings account with them once (I like to spread out my money in different bank accounts.. just a little protective measure against any risk) The retards froze my account when I made a $7000 deposit. They froze all my funds for 3 weeks, and actually threatened to close the account unless I provided them with my id, other bank statements, tax documents, etc. etc. After clearing everything up, I closed my account and everytime I see a WAMU ad on TV, I'm like ..yeah.. whatever. Another company I cannot deal with is American Express. They closed 5 of my cards without any reason.. and wanted me to fax tax documents, etc. I did all that, and they still closed them anyway. Mind you, none of the cards had any sort of late payment. I usually pay off my cards a week after any expenses. I think they were just pissed that I spent so much money and got all those starwood points and delta miles :D I prefer Citibank (and citi cards)
Music_Producer
01-23-2007 05:11 AM
20 pips on the Canadian CPI report.. didn't trade a big lot though..somehow I'm not too comfortable trading USD/CAD as compared to GBP/USD. :o Next up is Canadian Retail Sales (8.30 am EST)
nhallmark
01-23-2007 08:26 AM
yeah..its weird how the banks and card companies cant comprehend that you would actually play the game back at them :rolleyes: Anyway, I just watched the CAD reports this morning because Ive sat through several CAD trades where it was high impact and the #s deviated but it didnt move...at all. So, Im just watching it for now and I might get into trading it in a few months when my prot is consistent with the US and UK reports.
Music_Producer
01-24-2007 03:40 AM
The NZD trade might be interesting i.e. if they hike their rates. I watched the GBP trade today.. there were 2 very important reports coming out at the same time :mad: .. that's 2 great trades wasted. First, the GDP came out really good, so the pound went up by 10-15 pips.. and a second later the BOE meeting minutes came out, and the vote was 5-4.. and the pound dropped by 40-50 pips. After a few minutes it went up gradually by 60 pips :eek: It's best to stay out of the market when there are conicting reports (in this case GDP was +ve but the BOE votes were unexpected.. forecast was 8-1 not 5-4) 5-4 means 5 people voted for a UK rate hike, and 4 did not. Which also means that future rate hikes for the pound are unlikely. Shard, I traded the AUD/JPY today.. but in a different manner. I had my carry trade open since 95.02 or something like that.. and lol.. as soon as the AUD CPI came out worse than expected.. I hit 'sell' on aud/jpy and closed my position. The AUD/JPY since then dropped by more than 140 pips :eek: phew!! So next trade is NZD interest rate decision (if I can wake up by then!)
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nhallmark
01-24-2007 04:09 PM
I watched the UK reports also. I was planning on trading GDP but when I opened ttn they kept talking about the BoE meeting and that they would lead off with that number so I sat out and Im glad I did because I would be in a world of hurt right now if I traded based on the GDP #s. I also watched the NZD rate announcement but it was obviously a "no trade" because they left it the same.
nhallmark
01-24-2007 07:46 PM
So Im looking at the calendar for next week and there will denitely be a good trade or six:p, but I noticed the US rate decision is next week. Do you guys have any thoughts on it?
yuhu
Hello Music_Producer, nhallmark, Shard
01-25-2007 06:01 PM
First of all, i would like to thank all of you here for sharing so much information about forex. I stumbled upon this thread when i made the decision to start forex trading. I typed in "Forex for mac" in google to nd platform trading for mac and found this thread. I have read all the 35 pages and have been playing with Oanda game account for a lil over 3 days. I 'feel' that i might be ready to play with real account and start earning some $. I have a few questions for you guys: lets take last night as an example, forexfactory said German Consumer Condence and German Ifo Business Climate Index were supposed to come out at 1.10am and 3.00am CST respectively. I have been waiting for the news to come out in bloomberg.com, and FXnews on Oanda. But they dont show up until 5 minutes later. So my questions to you is where else can i look out for the news, other than TTN and of course the bloomberg's $1750? I am planning to start with $500 - $1000 next week with Oanda real account. My demo account was credited with $100,000 fake money, but I dont see any 'high' votality trades for the past 3 days or maybe i am wrong. But since MP didnot post any of his trades, i am taking that may be the market is 'slow' So anyway, i hope that i dont lose any money :)
Music_Producer
01-26-2007 03:45 AM
Hey Yuhu, welcome to the club :) As far as news services.. I think TTN is the cheapest.. and it works well for the price. I know that Reuters is $750/month. You are at an edge when you have bloomberg/reuters but then again, if you have a broker who widens spreads, or gives re-quotes, etc.. you really have to consider if you should be paying so much for a great news services.. when you're trading with a sub-standard broker. 50% of my trades are never executed, because of re-quotes. I can live with that, but it gets really frustrating at times. Yes, this week has been a little slow.. with the minor reports that did come out, my trades never got executed, so this week certainly was a waste of time for me.
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This morning there's the US Durable Goods orders report.. and then the new home sales reports.. these 2 should move the currencies if they deviate a bit. Good luck!
Music_Producer
Quote:
01-26-2007 03:50 AM
Originally Posted by nhallmark (Post 3286591) So Im looking at the calendar for next week and there will denitely be a good trade or six:p, but I noticed the US rate decision is next week. Do you guys have any thoughts on it?
It's expected that rates will remain the same.. however, in my opinion (no one wants my opinion.. not the Feds!) they should hike the rates.. GBP/USD is close to $2 and everyday I see things like 'Kuwait is planning to reduce dollar reserves' or some other country is switching to euros. The Fed Chief should take action .. forget about the housing markets, forget about rising interest rates.. we need to have a stronger currency and then solve everything else. If they cut the rates then look out for a major dollar sell off. Shard, I nally gured out why the AUD/JPY dipped so much (more than 150 pips) :o As if the AUD CPI wasn't bad enough.. apparently there were talks that at the G7 summit, everyone was going to talk to Japan about how low their currency level is, and that they should do something about it. Which translates into 'Hey Japan, raise your interest rates already' So all the JPY pairs took a nice beating. However, the Japanese CPI came out softer than expected today.. so the carry traders are kinda coming back. I think the Japs just keep talking all the time and giving threats of interest rate hikes.. but they really can't.. because of a soft cpi.. there is no need to raise rates. Sometimes I feel all these 'threats' or talks are simply opportunities for JPY pairs to fall.. enable some prot-taking and re-purchase at a lower price.
Music_Producer
01-26-2007 05:40 AM
19 pips.. USD Durable Goods Orders report came out WAY better than expected.. 2.3% when forecast was 0.5% :D Next up, new home sales
yuhu
1 Attachment(s)
01-26-2007 05:45 AM
I bagged 18 pip on Core durable goods. Could have bagged 29 pips instead. here is a screenshot of it. It was stopped by a Take Prot. How did you guys do? btw, Music_Producer, do you mind me asking what is the magnitude of money inside your account? Don't have to give the exact number.. :) See you guys later.
Music_Producer
01-26-2007 05:55 AM
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Yuhu, I have about $20-30,000 in my account at any time.. if there is an interest rate trade coming up in a few days.. I add more money so I can trade a huge lot. That trade only happens something like once a year, but it's a good 80-120 pip prot. I'm quite poor compared to other traders :p ;) I just choose not to put all my money into a trading account.. there are some people who sell their house and then put all their money in an account, and go short/long hoping to make a prot. Doesn't work. Btw, nice trade! What was the spread on Oanda for this report? From the screenshot it doesn't look like they increased it to a monstrous amount. I could have made more pips as well .. but for some reason I thought my trade didn't go through.. because my P/L section stayed at 0.00 for some time. I must have wasted a good 6-9 seconds to see if my trade did go through.. lucky it didn't reverse :eek:
nhallmark
01-26-2007 06:12 AM
damnit:mad: I lost 5 pips because CMC gave me a requote and as soon as I noticed the window was yellow it executed the requote and I KNOW I didn't click that button. Music_Producer, do you have yours set up for the "one click" thing or do you use two clicks? Im thinking either its a glitch in the software or somewhere my account settings arent right. Any input on why that might have happened?
Music_Producer
Nathan, i always set it to 'one click' Here is what i do When i hit 'buy' or 'sell'
01-26-2007 06:38 AM
I immediately look at the 'executed orders' section.. if nothing shows up, then i know i'm getting a re-quote.. and surely, the yellow window pops up, and i hit 'cancel' or it just expires on its own. You sure you didn't click anything that might have accepted that re-quote?

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nhallmark
01-26-2007 09:13 AM
Same thing happened on new home sales. lost 3 pips(l got out where I got in so I lost the spread). When you click buy or sell does it ash yellow for a split second before it goes green? If it does then Im just slow, but if not then its automatically executing my requotes and I am 100% sure I didnt click anyhting. It might be that Im just slow because Im still getting used to this software. This was my set up this morning...
I think Im trying to pay attention to too much at once and its slowing me down. So, Im going to try this set up next week...
What's the fastest in your opinon? Im thinking if I eliminate the oanda chart and the text news, I can act faster.
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One other thing I forgot to post-last week when my audio trial was over with ttn they said if I choose to upgrade they could get me in at $123/month instead of $175 so I did it...thats $50 cheaper. So, I guess it was worth it to ask them for that trial because otherwise I would be paying $175
yuhu
Quote:
01-26-2007 12:59 PM
Originally Posted by Music_Producer (Post 3291191) Btw, nice trade! What was the spread on Oanda for this report? From the screenshot it doesn't look like they increased it to a monstrous amount. I could have made more pips as well .. but for some reason I thought my trade didn't go through.. because my P/L section stayed at 0.00 for some time. I must have wasted a good 6-9 seconds to see if my trade did go through.. lucky it didn't reverse :eek:
I didnt really noticed the spread as i was too nervous looking at the chart. But after i closed my position, i noticed that the spread stayed the same at 1.8 I close my position in a matter of seconds (like 3 seconds) so perhaps the spread didnot move at all, but this is all in my game account. Did you guys trade on New Home Sales? I overslept through that one.
yuhu
Nathan, Do you really need that Date andTime window? The second one looks really neat. btw, how long have you been using TTN? You should denately try oanda, there is very little lag time, perhaps half a second.
01-26-2007 01:03 PM
Music_Producer
01-26-2007 01:32 PM
Yuhu.. Oanda game accounts are different. The spreads remain at 1-2. So you would have gone in a loss had you traded with a real account. I just checked the spread at that time, and it was 20 pips. You would be -2 pips loss. Nathan, I don't recall if the window ashes yellow when i hit buy or sell because i look at the executed order section rightaway. Are you using the cmc demo account or real account? And I don't use any charts. Too distracting for me, I just concentrate on the TTN audio. As I mentioned earlier, it takes a lot of practice to get ready to hear the audio and press buy or sell. Yuhu, i couldn't execute my trade on the home sales. got a re-quote. I did have a feeling though that GBP is going to rebound after going down because its friday and everyone does prot-taking.. and it went up by 30 pips. :mad:
nhallmark
01-26-2007 02:26 PM
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1/15/08 8:25 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by yuhu (Post 3292468) Nathan, Do you really need that Date andTime window? The second one looks really neat. btw, how long have you been using TTN? You should denately try oanda, there is very little lag time, perhaps half a second.
I dont have to have the time window open but it helps because I watch it with my periphereal vision(I know I spelled that wrong. MP, your the doctor, how do you spell it?) and I know exactly when he will call the #s(most of the time). Ive tried it without it and I get "surprised" everytime and it slows me down. Ive been using TTN since the the rst of december. Their audio news is ten times better than oanda, IMHO.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Music_Producer (Post 3292551) Nathan, I don't recall if the window ashes yellow when i hit buy or sell because i look at the executed order section rightaway. Are you using the cmc demo account or real account? And I don't use any charts. Too distracting for me, I just concentrate on the TTN audio. As I mentioned earlier, it takes a lot of practice to get ready to hear the audio and press buy or sell.
I was using my real account, but only $1/pip...but still thats why Im so mad about it. I think I just need to clean up the windows and work on my speed. Ive noticed that the oanda chart moves a second after the CMC ticker, so its really pointless having it open except for the visual reference.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Music_Producer (Post 3292551) Yuhu, i couldn't execute my trade on the home sales. got a re-quote. I did have a feeling though that GBP is going to rebound after going down because its friday and everyone does prot-taking.. and it went up by 30 pips. :mad:
Are you mad because you didnt trade the upswing or am I missing something?
Music_Producer
Quote:
01-26-2007 02:58 PM
Originally Posted by nhallmark (Post 3292729) I dont have to have the time window open but it helps because I watch it with my periphereal vision(I know I spelled that wrong. MP, your the doctor, how do you spell it?) and I know exactly when he will call the #s(most of the time). Ive tried it without it and I get "surprised" everytime and it
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slows me down.
Peripheral.. you don't have to be a doctor to spell that :p Btw, nathan.. i see that you're missing one window.. the spot/fx position window .. that tells you your prot/loss section. Keep the entire cmc platform open i.e. everything.. there is a time clock on the bottom of the window.. and it's pretty accurate. I get trigger-ready when its one second before an announcement. I was mad because I didn't trade the upswing.. as I predicted it would happen. Its ok though, it could have gone the other way and ruined my prots for the day. I still need to learn to apply a little more self-control!
nhallmark
Quote:
01-26-2007 03:37 PM
Originally Posted by Music_Producer (Post 3292841) Peripheral.. you don't have to be a doctor to spell that :p Btw, nathan.. i see that you're missing one window.. the spot/fx position window .. that tells you your prot/loss section. Keep the entire cmc platform open i.e. everything.. there is a time clock on the bottom of the window.. and it's pretty accurate. I get trigger-ready when its one second before an announcement. I was mad because I didn't trade the upswing.. as I predicted it would happen. Its ok though, it could have gone the other way and ruined my prots for the day. I still need to learn to apply a little more self-control!
OK, I was only off by one "e":p. Yeah, Im trying to gure out a window set up that I feel comfortable with. Since I switched from oanda I feel like everytime I click buy or sell, Im closing my eyes and hoping I dont crash. I guess thats because Im a really visual person and with oanda I felt like I knew what I was doing because it was drawn out right before me. But, then I realized on the CMC order window, "hey...nathan, those numbers there on the window...yeah, thats the price of the currency, idiot. It moves up and down just like the oanda chart" So, Im getting used to it but I will keep the entire platform up and see how it goes. Next week is big!(not that big, but lots of trades crammed into 3 days) Cant wait!
yuhu Music_Producer
Quote:
01-26-2007 10:59 PM 01-28-2007 12:18 AM
MP, perhaps i miss this, are you using CMC or3292551) Oanda right now? Originally Posted byso Music_Producer (Post Damn.. 20 pip spread is bad... Yuhu.. Oanda game accounts are different. The spreads remain at 1-2. So you would have gone in I ama going to open demo account soon. Thank you for letting me know about Oanda's spread. I was loss had you CMC traded with a real account. I just checked the spread at that time, and it was 20 pips. already going to open a real account with them, but since the spread is like that, i am going to wait and You would be -2 pips loss. switch to CMC. Yuhu, i couldn't execute my trade on the home sales. got a re-quote. I did have a feeling though that GBP is going to rebound after going down because its friday and everyone does prot-taking.. and it went up by 30 pips. :mad:
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Originally Posted by yuhu (Post 3293860) MP, perhaps i miss this, so are you using CMC or Oanda right now? Damn.. 20 pip spread is bad... I am going to open CMC demo account soon. Thank you for letting me know about Oanda's spread. I was already going to open a real account with them, but since the spread is like that, i am going to wait and switch to CMC.
Then you didn't read all 35 pages you liar.. or you would have known about Oanda's spreads :D :p I use CMC for news trades, but like I said earlier.. they're kinda getting worse with their re-quotes. It's getting much harder to get in on the spike.. I'm thinking of 'fading the spike' That's when the currency jumps 30 pips or whatever, and you trade in the opposite direction once that spike is out of steam. Very risky of course, but works for most people. I'll try doing that with a very tiny lot, and see how that works for me. The good thing is that you have a little more time to decide whether to hit buy or sell, and you also don't need to subscribe to any news service.. you simply see the chart and trade. This is obviously not recommended for very signicant reports like interest rate decisions, etc.. but for majority of reports, most traders do 'fade' the spike and they seem to be successful.
yuhu
I did read all the 35 pages :P
01-28-2007 11:54 AM
And i knew about Oanda's spread, and i thought that i read the reduced the spread back to normal? So, do i still go with Oanda or CMC? What do you think? I was thinking of going with Oanda, but small amount, perhaps $100 or $200.
nhallmark
01-29-2007 02:31 PM
yuhu, I would go with CMC. The requotes suck(according to MP, I have yet to experience one) but I would rather get a requote and not be able to trade than to have my entire prot and then some eaten by oanda's spread. I switched to CMC a week or two ago because of that. The only downside is the $2k minimum deposit. If you cant afford it, you can try and trade the foreign reports on oanda because the spread usually isnt as bad on those. About "fading", Im going to watch this week and see if it would be possible to do that. I just got through watching NZD building consents and it was a minor report so I didn't trade but if I would have "faded" that one, I would have made more than if I traded the spike...so Im denitely going to watch the other reports.
Music_Producer
01-30-2007 04:47 AM
I agree with nathan, cmc has a minimum deposit of $2k.. and one more thing, the minimum trading size is 10,000 units. Oanda gives you the ability to trade even 1 unit (no one would want to, but its nice to have that
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exibility) So with cmc you start trading rightaway with $ 1 per pip (approx.) I would stick with oanda for high-probability trades, such as interest rate decisions or non-farm payroll reports, because they execute, and the moves are usually 50 pips + Smaller reports, I tend to trade with cmc. Nathan, you might not be getting re-quotes yet, but when your trading lot size becomes bigger.. they might surprise you with re-quotes all the time. CMC's a good platform, it might take a little while getting used to the layout.
Music_Producer
01-31-2007 05:53 AM
ADP trade was ok.. bagged 5 pips.. but GDP trade was a nice 24 pips. I believe GBP/USD has broken the 1.9500 barrier and is currently at 1.9490.. getting beat pretty bad! Next trade is Chicago PMI at 10 am EST. Of course, interest rate decision is something to watch out for as well, although I think rates will be held steady. There might be some hawkish comments from the Fed, if that happens.. you will see USD go up. I don't know how much further gbp can fall though.. unless the chicago pmi comes out horrible.
nhallmark
01-31-2007 06:59 AM
..i didnt trade ADP because I didnt think it deviated enough and then I got my rst requote on GDP:mad: Then I made 1 pip on PMI because I got in too slow. But Im working on it! Hopefully, the rate announcement will deviate. I highly doubt it but well see..
~Shard~
01-31-2007 12:49 PM
Hi guys, sorry I've been away for a while. Been busy with work, life and of special interest, trying to develop, analyze and backtest some technial trading techniques. I have been successful with stocks from time to time over the years with certain personalized "trading systems" if you want to call them that, using some of my technical analysis tools (MACD, RSI, Boilinger Bands, EMAs, etc.) and have bene trying to determine if some of the same techniques could work in the forex world (obviously when no economic announcements are coming out!). I've actually had a little bit of success, but more testing and analysis is required (for consistency), so I'll let you know how I make out... :cool: For now, I traded the GDP #s this morning and bagged 4 pips - essentially I got out too soon. :o ;) I'll be subscribing to TTN in the next week or so, once I have more time and will hopefully do more trading as well, as I have been occupied otherwise this last little while. Glad to see the threa dis still going strong though! :cool:
yuhu
Quote:
02-01-2007 10:09 AM
Originally Posted by nhallmark (Post 3301277) yuhu, I would go with CMC. The requotes suck(according to MP, I have yet to experience one) but I would rather get a requote and not be able to trade than to have my entire prot and then some eaten by oanda's spread.
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I switched to CMC a week or two ago because of that. The only downside is the $2k minimum deposit. If you cant afford it, you can try and trade the foreign reports on oanda because the spread usually isnt as bad on those. About "fading", Im going to watch this week and see if it would be possible to do that. I just got through watching NZD building consents and it was a minor report so I didn't trade but if I would have "faded" that one, I would have made more than if I traded the spike...so Im denitely going to watch the other reports.
I think i will stick with Oanda for now, because of the $2k minimum and the fact that they dont have Mac platform. The guy from CMC that i talked to in the phone said they have platform for mac, but when i asked for it in my email, they said they dont have anything for mac. Thanks for the info. :)
yuhu
1 Attachment(s)
02-01-2007 10:31 AM
I agree with MP about sticking with Oanda for high probality trading. I am now in the process of verifying my real account with Oanda, should be good to go later today. MP, the spread of game account do change during news release time. This morning, the spread was 10. Here is a screenshot of my trade (i think it was on Monday or Tuesday) I am really busy with college.. :( Hi ~Shard~ :)
Music_Producer
02-01-2007 04:28 PM
Shard, let us know how the tech analysis stuff goes.. and what method works. There are so many systems out there, and every time I see a chart loaded with indicators I just want to close it :p Yuhu, nice trade.. yeah cmc has nothing for the mac.. and btw, I had a close call this morning. First, I couldn't trade the GBP report (1.30 am pst) because of a re-quote. I was able to trade the US PCE report and I got about 12 pips on that. Now, the scary part.. I was getting ready to trade the US manufacturing pmi.. and as soon as it came out.. I hit 'buy' (GBP/USD) since the numbers were bad. And, my platform crashed :eek: :eek: I was praying 'Please don't let my trade go through' and trying to start up the damn platform.. it nally opened.. and my prot/loss section showed '-$1800' :eek: :eek: because the stupid thing went up by 40 pips and then came down .. and went lower. Of course i would have made a prot had the retarded platform not crashed.. but i was unable to close my positions. So I closed it for a -$1800 loss.. but then I gured that since the start of the NY session, there was intense selling pressure on the GBP. So I sold double the quantity of gbp/usd (a risky move) and luckily, it did go down and I recouped my losses. Phew!!!!!! Windows sucks!!!!!!!! That was one hell of a scary ride though.
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Music_Producer
02-02-2007 05:10 AM
Be careful with the NFP report today.. I'm not trading it. Not even with a small lot, apparently there are a lot of rumors that there will be major revision to the tune of 810,000 jobs added.. and that's enough to cause massive whipsaws. And these are not rumors caused by traders, etc.. there's an article on CNN : http://money.cnn.com/2007/02/01/news...ion=2007020115 If you're on a demo account, then surely go ahead. It makes more sense to stay away from this report than risk an enormous loss.
Music_Producer
02-02-2007 05:35 AM
Interesting.. looks like a bunch of traders got some inside info.. gbp/usd moved up by 20-25 pips just a minute before the actual report.. the number came at 111, so less than forecast.. I didn't trade the initial spike.. but 'faded' it.. for 13 pips. With only a 10,000 size lot obviously, and the damn thing whipsawed when the report came out.
Music_Producer
02-02-2007 05:40 AM
Wait, what was the spread on Oanda? Anyone traded on oanda? My charts show a 200 pip spread.. :confused: I don't think thats possible. Edit : Never mind, it was 20 pips.. but at 5.29:12 .. for a few seconds, it went up to 200 pips. Lol.. probably to hit the stops of all the scalpers!!
nhallmark
02-04-2007 08:19 PM
...(crickets) ... uh, so I lost 60 dollars on NFP on friday. Yep, didn't pay attention and I learned my lesson. GBP/USD seemed determined to stay below 1.9750 on thursday and friday. Oh well...I made 4 dollars on the AUD trade balance. I checked this forum friday morning but there were no new posts and after I lost my money, I come back and MP is saying "dont trade NFP!!":p That really needed to happen because Ive learned a lot from it. I was at barnes and noble this weekend and I picked up "the winning investment habits of warren buffet and george soros". It deals alot with the psychology of it all. Its pretty good. Anyway, we'll see how this week goes...
Music_Producer
Quote:
02-04-2007 10:46 PM
Originally Posted by nhallmark (Post 3323697) ...(crickets) ... uh, so I lost 60 dollars on NFP on friday. Yep, didn't pay attention and I learned my lesson. GBP/USD seemed determined to stay below 1.9750 on thursday and friday. Oh well...I made 4 dollars on the AUD trade balance. I checked this forum friday morning but there were no new posts and after I lost my money, I come back and MP is saying "dont trade NFP!!":p
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That really needed to happen because Ive learned a lot from it. I was at barnes and noble this weekend and I picked up "the winning investment habits of warren buffet and george soros". It deals alot with the psychology of it all. Its pretty good. Anyway, we'll see how this week goes...
See what I mean nathan? When you trade the most-traded report in the world, there is always a good chance to blow up all the prots made in a couple of weeks.. because it moves a lot. On top of that, there are spread increases, platform outages, etc. So why bother trading that one stupid report? I'd rather stick to the other, regular reports. NFP seems to lure ever trader.. it's like a death trap :eek: Btw, I gave the NFP warning before the report.. you probably didn't refresh the page or something :p The only reason I trade NFP is for the fun bit, I can afford a little loss.. I trade a very small size.. but this time, after reading all those rumors about revisions, etc.. *and* seeing the gbp/usd jump up before the report actually came out.. I knew something was wrong, so I stayed out and faded the spike instead. I traded the AUD retail sales today, and made 10 pips.. it did go down more after i exited, but all i needed to start the day was 10 pips, and that was good. Don't worry about the loss nathan, you'll recoup it.. just trade smart, and stay away from the risky ones. Avoiding a loss is as good as making a prot.
nhallmark
yeah, there really is no reason to trade it, especially when I dont know what Im doing.
02-05-2007 02:27 AM
I made 7 pips on AUD retail sales and 9 pips on GBP Services PMI which is a minor report so I traded it with 1 cent a pip on oanda and they didn't raise the spread...this time.:rolleyes:
nhallmark
oh..and thanks for the encouragement. I really do appreciate it.:)
02-05-2007 02:39 AM
Music_Producer
Quote:
02-05-2007 05:57 AM
Originally Posted by nhallmark (Post 3324180) oh..and thanks for the encouragement. I really do appreciate it.:)
Of course, in fact.. just like you said.. a minor loss is necessary to get us back in place.. and trade correctly. Imagine if you had built up a balance of $20,000 or so and lost everything on one NFP trade. Now you're fully insured against such horric trades :D
Music_Producer
02-05-2007 07:03 AM
10 pips on the US ISM non manufacturing index.. how did you do nathan? The gbp/usd didn't move that much (like 30 pips or so) so gains were limited.
nhallmark
02-05-2007 01:18 PM
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i fell back asleep and missed it:mad: its probably because I woke up at 2:30am and stayed up until 5:45 and then tried to get up at 6:45. Oh well..
nhallmark
02-06-2007 11:30 AM
Ive got a question...on ISM index, the # was good so GBP/USD originally fell, but then it retraced and went up for quite awhile. Is this because ISM prices came out bad, which would mean ination is lower, so less chance of a rate hike, etc.? Or is there some other reason?
Music_Producer
Quote:
02-06-2007 12:12 PM
Originally Posted by nhallmark (Post 3328669) Ive got a question...on ISM index, the # was good so GBP/USD originally fell, but then it retraced and went up for quite awhile. Is this because ISM prices came out bad, which would mean ination is lower, so less chance of a rate hike, etc.? Or is there some other reason?
Not really.. the only reason being.. prot taking. If you noticed.. the GBP/USD had already fallen quite a bit.. and then the ISM #s came out good, hence the reaction was muted i.e. gbp/usd fell by 10-15 pips. There was just no momentum left anymore for it to continue its downward trend. Had the ISM #s come out worse than expected, you would have seen a 70-80 pip spike upwards in gbp/usd. The amount that a currency deviates depends on where the level is pre-report. For e.g. .. even before the nfp.. gbp/usd jumped up by 40 pips, so i knew that when the actual report comes out, and if the # is bad, it can only rise by about 20-30 more pips.. and then it will come down.. so I faded the spike.
lagunacat
Shout out to Music Producer
02-06-2007 07:16 PM
MP, I stumbled across this site doing a Google search for 'Mac and Forex'. I have been reading your posts for a couple days now and have been very captivated. Few weeks ago I decided to get into Forex and have been reading forums, blogs and bought one book (M. Archer). I have learned alot more from reading your posts than any of the other sources so I wanted to send props to you. I am still reading your posts from August so have quite aways to go to see your progression in the last 6 months. I am still playing with the Oanda game and not nearly ready to play with my hard earned cash. Anyway, wanted to say thanks and looking forward to reading more...
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1/15/08 8:25 PM
Music_Producer
02-06-2007 08:08 PM
You're welcome Lagunacat :) Keep playing with that game account till you see some solid gains! Nathan, i just noticed that gbp/usd went back to 1.9700 + today (went to 1.9715) GBP wants to touch 2.00, but that would create an outcry.. kinda like a Brit 'invasion' :p
lagunacat
Quote:
02-06-2007 08:41 PM
Originally Posted by Music_Producer (Post 3330391) You're welcome Lagunacat :) Keep playing with that game account till you see some solid gains!
I actually just started playing today, conservatively, put in reasonable stop/loss on 3 different buys. Closed one out after an hour, made $25. Watched another Eur/jpy until I made 21 pips and still watching a 5 pip gain on Eur/usd. So enjoying this so far. I do have a couple questions. What is the margin that is set on this game or where do I nd that? Also, I read an earlier post that you said a PC isn't needed for running the news service? What is Parallels? I have never used a PC and have gotten by with Virtual PC all these years. As you know it is painfully slow so I need to upgrade when I decide to play for real. My current Mac is not Intel. I have been waiting for Leopard before I upgrade. Last thing, have you kept up your great record with no losses (like i said i am still reading Aug. posts)?
lagunacat
Which browser for Oanda game?
02-07-2007 08:12 AM
I am having issues with my preferred browser Firefox. When I try to use any of the drop down menus, ie: time intervals ( 5 sec ) , close price, etc., all of my windows associated with the game (including the main game window) collapse into the Dock. When I tried in Safari it causes Safari to crash. Anybody else have these issues? I really DON'T want to use IE or Netscape.
nhallmark
Hi lagunacat, How old is your Mac?
02-07-2007 01:23 PM
Oanda runs on java, so maybe try installing the latest version from sun, or search for it on apple's site. If you've already done this, sorry.
lagunacat
Quote:
02-07-2007 03:09 PM
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1/15/08 8:25 PM
Originally Posted by nhallmark (Post 3332864) Hi lagunacat, How old is your Mac? Oanda runs on java, so maybe try installing the latest version from sun, or search for it on apple's site. If you've already done this, sorry.
I am running Panther on an Imac. The Oanda game runs ne except for the drop down menus (in Firefox). I have managed to get the drop downs to work in Safari but I really hate using that browser.
nhallmark
...I would say, try camino but its based on the refox engine. You could try opera... http://www.opera.com/download/?platform=mac Ive never used it, but some people swear by it. Other than that, Im out of ideas. Maybe contact oanda and ask them?
02-07-2007 06:51 PM
Music_Producer
02-07-2007 07:13 PM
Laguna.. maybe its panther.. safari on my mac (tiger.. macintel) works great with oanda.. drop down menus, etc. Firefox is a little annoying .. it minimizes all the time, just like it happens to you. Parallels is like virtual pc, except.. much much better! Windows xp on parallels runs faster than windows on my pc. Upgrade to an intel mac as fast as you can :p So far, no, i have not had any losses.. ever since I have started trading sensibly. i.e if I miss a trade.. I don't go crazy and enter anyway.. I just let it go. I know there will be another opportunity. Once there was a platform crash, and my trade had already been executed. Well I recouped my losses by carrying out a few trades within a few minutes. Made a prot of 14 pips on the NZD/USD trade today (1.45 pm PST) and 10 pips (I entered a little late) on the AUD/USD trade (4.30 pm PST)
Music_Producer
02-08-2007 04:06 AM
13 pips on the UK interest rate statement.. they kept the rates the same. They carried out a surprise rate hike last time, so it was certain that they wouldn't do anything to the rates this time.. but still, apparently the markets were expecting a rate hike. Oops, as i type this.. it just fell by 15 more pips. Euro interest rate statement is next. I have a weird feeling about this one, maybe they might hike it. No fundamental reason really.. but i just feel that their current 3.5% rate seems to be too low. They should hike to 3.75 to attract more investors. If they keep the rates unchanged, then it will be a no-trade as the ECB never really surprises when it comes to rate decisions.
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1/15/08 8:25 PM
lagunacat
Quote:
02-08-2007 08:51 AM
Originally Posted by Music_Producer (Post 3333878) Laguna.. maybe its panther.. safari on my mac (tiger.. macintel) works great with oanda.. drop down menus, etc. Firefox is a little annoying .. it minimizes all the time, just like it happens to you. Parallels is like virtual pc, except.. much much better! Windows xp on parallels runs faster than windows on my pc. Upgrade to an intel mac as fast as you can :p Made a prot of 14 pips on the NZD/USD trade today (1.45 pm PST) and 10 pips (I entered a little late) on the AUD/USD trade (4.30 pm PST)
MP, I've managed to get Safari to work properly (little Oanda tech help). I don't plan on getting the new Intel until Leopard comes out (couple months I think) which is ne because I am not planning on going live before that. I am up $1400 on my game now after 3 days:) I noticed you posted the time you traded the NZD/USD, is that the time to watch that pair? I remember seeing a chart which showed times for trading certain currency pairs, do you use that? Also, I read a few pages back in this thread that you stopped using Oanda. Who do you use now? Where are you in CA? I am in the Monterey area. Thanks for your help!:apple:

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~Shard~
Quote:
02-08-2007 02:53 PM
Originally Posted by yuhu (Post 3312015) Hi ~Shard~ :)
Hi. ;)
Quote:
Originally Posted by Music_Producer (Post 3313389) Shard, let us know how the tech analysis stuff goes.. and what method works. There are so many systems out there, and every time I see a chart loaded with indicators I just want to close it :p
Will do - I'm in the middle of backtesting a couple methods right now. As I said, I've had some success with them in the stock market world, so I'm trying to see if they are applicable in the forex world. It will be interesting to see, as my methods are usually longer term, using daily results (highs/lows/candlesticks) as data over a 1-4 month period. As a result, I think that approach is a good thing, since it isn't a "day trading" method (since things can move so much on an intraday basis and is hence unreliable due to fundamentals) and as a result of this, "huge" swings due to actual news releases have a somewhat more minimal impact on the overall chart when looking at it over several months, thus providing a bit of relaibility to the method. Back to the "lab" for now though... I'll return next week... :cool:
Music_Producer
Sneak out of your lab sometimes and give us a friendly hello sometimes Shard :p
02-09-2007 04:12 AM
I lost 14 pips today on the GBP trade balance report :mad: The news came out bad for the GBP/USD (didn't deviate by that much) and I sold rightaway.. it did drop by 6 pips.. but all of a sudden it shot up by a couple of pips. Usually I'm very quick but this one was a surprise.. I expected it to go down 20-25 pips. Anyway, I think there must have been a couple of stops placed at that level, so the banks tried to prevent the gbp from falling. I exited the trade with a 14 pip loss thinking I didn't want to risk it.. and then the bloody thing fell down.. gradually.. by about 50 pips. Had i been a little more patient (like even a second) I would have made a nice prot.. oh well. Now, the exciting part. A whopping 55 pips on the USD/CAD trade :D Canadian employment report came out way better than expected, I love the deviation - it was huge. Expected number was 25 k, came out at 89k. So I recouped my gbp loss and made up by more than enough pips. I'm pretty glad that I got out of the GBP trade (even though i made a loss) because there is no telling what could have happened. It could have gone up by 20 more pips.. and I would have lost 34 pips in all. A small
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loss doesn't make me upset, because I know I can always recover, and make prots on more reports. Next week, there are a ton of reports.. should be fun. Have a good weekend guys! :)
Music_Producer
Quote:
02-09-2007 04:21 AM
Originally Posted by lagunacat (Post 3335489) MP, I noticed you posted the time you traded the NZD/USD, is that the time to watch that pair? I remember seeing a chart which showed times for trading certain currency pairs, do you use that? Also, I read a few pages back in this thread that you stopped using Oanda. Who do you use now? Where are you in CA? I am in the Monterey area. Thanks for your help!:apple:
No lagunacat, I don't trade technicals.. or looking at the charts. That was the time that the New Zealand Unemployment Report came out. I only trade news reports.. I do not trade on 'peaks' and 'bottoms' I look at the economic calendar (available on most forex sites) and see what the important reports are going to be what day they come out, and what time. I get ready to trade those accordingly. Don't get me wrong. Traders make a living by trading technicals.. but that's just not my style. I am good at rapid executions, so I trade the news.. and I'm a complete moron when it comes to technicals. Well, not a moron.. but I guess I'm just not lucky.. and I don't have the patience to hold on to a position for a couple of days. I need instant gratication :D $800-$4000 in 3-5 seconds is what drives me :p I'm in the high desert, near Victorville.. I want to move further away from the coast though (or rather the San Andreas fault which is like 10 minutes away!) I'm petried of earthquakes :o You might do well on a game account but remember that it's a completely different ball game when you're trading with real money. You get a lot more involved, tense.. impatient.. etc. with a real account. That leads to mistakes.. so as long as you trade smart and have a solid strategy (whatever method you are working with, or 'gut feeling') you should do good. Losses always exist, but make sure those don't exceed your prots.. obviously.. by following a few simple trading rules. I used Oanda today for the USD/CAD trade.. the spread was only 8 pips. I use CMC most of the time, but they give me re-quotes most of the time, so I use them only for very important reports and Oanda for everything else.
lagunacat
Quote:
02-09-2007 07:25 AM
Originally Posted by Music_Producer (Post 3338497) You might do well on a game account but remember that it's a completely different ball game when you're trading with real money. You get a lot more involved, tense.. impatient.. etc. with a real account. That leads to mistakes.. so as long as you trade smart
MP, I am well aware that paper trading is not the same as real trading, that is why I have no intention of going 'live' until I feel some what condent. I am the rst one to admit I have a lot to learn.
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Also on the issue of Firefox windows minimizing, I got this tech advice from Oanda 'Since our last correspondence I've learned that this is a known issue with Firefox on Mac. We have lled a bug report tot he Mozilla Foundation who develops Firefox and have recently heard backfrom them. The problem lies in a component called Java EmbeddingPlugin (JEP). You can check what version of JEP is currently bundledwith Firefox by typing "about:plugins" (without quotes) in the URL bar. Versionsprior to 0.9.6 are affected by this minimizing problem. The MozillaFoundation has conrmed that JEP0.9.6 will be bundled with Firefox2.0.0.2. Until this release, you have with 2 options. You can either: 1.download JEP 0.9.6 separately and follow the installation instructionsin the Readme.txt le (we've done it and it works, but we don'trecommend it to clients who are not used to tweak their computer): http://downloads.sourceforge.net/jav...lugin0.9.6.zip 2. temporarily use our FXDesktop version of FXTrade: https://fx1.oanda.com/java/fxdesktop/index.shtml ' (end Oanda) Ok, I downloaded the updated plugin but got lost during instructions with the timestamp thing. I felt the instructions were incomplete. Possible someone from this forum (and more tech savvy than me) can gure it out.
nhallmark
02-10-2007 06:30 PM
Uh...I haven't posted for a few days because I was looking at a thread on forexfactory about taxes and I found out a lot of stuff I didn't know. Supposedly, income tax is illegal but it gets a lot deeper than that. According to a video I watched the US, Canada, and Mexico will be one country by 2010. Here's the video... http://video.stumbleupon.com/#p=7m377tk3cl Its 2 hours long so I understand if you don't watch it, but if you do, what do you guys think about that? I know its off topic, but I had no idea about the central banks. And, my thinking is that if there is a world government, there is no more forex because everyone uses one currency. And then it goes on and on about the microchips,etc and Ive just been in a state of denial, confusion, and shock over the past few days. In other news, I lost 30 pips on the AUD employment change, but then I made that back, and my money from NFP and $75 from the UK trade balance:D Nathan P.S. Im usually not all fanatical about all the conspiracy theories but the peices seem to t together too perfectly with this.
yuhu
Quote:
02-12-2007 01:26 PM
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1/15/08 8:25 PM
Now, the exciting part. A whopping 55 pips on the USD/CAD trade :D C
I traded GBP/USD on that and got 34 pips. This is my rst major win. :) MP, You said this week is gonna be a good week with lots of news, some of them are GBP news which comes out at 4.30am.. I dont think i am gonna wake up at 4.30am.. Will you be awake? Is there any place else that we can see the calendar for other countries,, other than yahoo and forexfactory? Nathan, i didnt watch the video, but the sound of it is really creepy... personally, i dont think there is any way that USA, Canada and Mexico are gonna be one country within 3 years. -No wayGood luck everyone for this week's trading
Music_Producer
02-13-2007 03:39 AM
Hey guys, back.. had a busy weekend and day with my wife's sister's wedding.. I don't know how I'm staying up right now to trade! I couldn't trade the GBP/USD today (CPI report) Missed a nice 58 pip prot because of a re-quote :mad: :mad: Let's see how the US trade balance comes out. Nathan, I don't think the 3 countries will merge.. no way.. but I do have a feeling that their currencies might become a single currency, apparently termed the 'Amero' :p Lol.. I don't know why everyone has to copy the 'Euro' or whatever, but it doesn't matter if the currencies do converge. There will never be a single world currency anyway, no chance of that happening. Yuhu, I stay up all night till about 6-7 am PST anyway, so I can trade. I then sleep till 2 pm or so.. sometimes it does get a bit tiring, but on the weekends you will usually see me sleeping all day. :)
~Shard~
02-13-2007 04:24 AM
Urgh, got up in the middle of the night only to get a requote! :( Ah well, at least it's proof that I'm getting faster. ;) Let's see how the trade data comes out. If US #s are down and CAD #s are up it should be a good trade on the USDCAD... :cool:
leetz
02-13-2007 01:34 PM
First of all I would like to thank Music Producer for being so generous and sharing his wisdom and strategies with everyone. I have read about 30 pages of this thread for about 2 weeks now. It inspired me to start trading again, I quit last summer for lack of time with summer school. I was doing a different type of trading then this I was using charts and various other methods. I would like to try this out :) Watched the Trade Balance today and only saw about a 14 pip difference from when the news went out. It settled back down to about what it was before the news broke out at about 8:46. Did anyone else experience this or was I just not watching it closely enough? Any reason why there was such little pip movement? Also if you don't mind...music producer.... on the forexfactory calendar what events do u usually trade? Mostly the red stuff or orange or will you do whatever you think is important just from personal experience? Thanks again for all your help. And also with all these news items do u trade it against the USD always?
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1/15/08 8:25 PM
~Shard~
02-13-2007 07:13 PM
Traded the USD/CAD on the trade balance report, made 8 pips. UK employment #s are this morning followed by US and UK retail sales. It's denitely a busy week!
plowcow
02-13-2007 09:15 PM
hey people, I started following this thread a while ago and learned a lot--although to this day I never trade the news, but if and when I do, I'll know how ;)-- but yeah like I said I learned a lot and music_producer especially has been helpful to me so I felt like I wanna give a little something back. I'm a technical trader unlike all of you so I trade based on what the graphs look like and different indicators. Two main elements to technical analysis: trend and support/resistance. Anyways I'm planning to pop in every once in a while with some input when I see something interesting going on Feb 14 plowcow's analysis: USD/JPY the yen's been in a huuuge range lately and since ranges are easy to trade, could be a big prot opportunity for easy money (sell at the top, buy at the bottom) right now its heading to the bottom of the range--the best thing that can happen is sometime this week it will hit 120.00--this level is a crucial support area since price bounced off of it previously and since it is a psychological support (round numbers act as support/resistance) TRADE PLAN: wait for price to hit exactly 120.00, then go all in and BUY, max out your margin but MAKE SURE to put a 5-10 pip stop loss
Music_Producer
02-14-2007 05:43 AM
You're welcome Leetz.. not all the 'red' marked reports on forexfactory are capable of making currencies move. For e.g. today, gbp/usd claimant count change.. although it came out at -31,000.. which was a huge deviation.. the move was only 11-12 pips, I managed to squeeze out 4 pips. This was obviously because the markets were waiting for the Bank of England's ination report, which came out an hour later. I made a good 17 pips on that one, as initially the report stated that ination risks are low.. so the pound dropped quite a bit.. but then there were statements made that a low CPI does not necessarily mean that rates will not be hiked. That came out, and the gbp shot up 50 pips. US retail sales.. I managed to get only 8 pips, as the report came out at 0.3% .. not really a deviation from the forecast of 0.4% Still, it was kinda bad news for the us dollar, plus gbp was strong anyway.. so gbp/usd is up at 1.9570 right now. When you see muted moves, its usually due to a small deviation, or an insignicant report.. or, sometimes.. the currency has moved so much, that it is not possible for it to move by a wider range. For e.g. if a report is due at 2.30 am, and at 2.25 am.. gbp/usd shoots up by 40-50 pips due to whatever reason.. and the news comes at 2.30 am which is gbp positive.. the gbp/usd will only spike up maybe 10-15 pips more (because of the earlier 40-50 pip move) On the other hand, something quite the opposite may occur. I remember when there were rumors that NFP report was going to be terrible. So 15 minutes before the report.. GBP/USD kept going up and up. by almost 50-60 pips. When the NFP report did come out, it was quite strong.. beat all the rumors.. and the gbp/usd fell by a massive 80 pips.
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Yes, everything is paired to the USD.. when you see something like EUR/JPY its a cross pair.. i.e. its EUr/USD + USD/JPY. Additionally, I do not trade when there is more than one important report coming out. Conicts can really mess up a trade i.e. the currency can spike up for two seconds.. and then go all the way down. Next trade I'm looking at is the NZD retail sales.. I'll be trading the NZD/USD for that. It should be a nice trade as there are no other reports around that time, hopefully the report deviates quite a bit for a nice 20-30 pip move.
~Shard~
02-14-2007 04:34 PM
Made 4 pips on the US retail sales this morning and just made 12 pips on the Japanese GDP. Up next, UK retail sales, then lots of US data tomorrow... should be a good day... Oh, and I'm almost done testing my MACD technical strategy. Hindsight is always 20/20, but some of the results are quite successful and consistent. I'll post some info on it in the next couple of days. I almost feel obligated to test it out myself though rst... :o
nhallmark
02-14-2007 04:35 PM
made 5 pips on JPY GDP. I decided to play it safe and trade USD/JPY so it moved about 40 pips, where as GBP/JPY dropped 100 pips :eek: ...the spread is 8 pips though(which obviously didnt matter this time)
~Shard~
02-14-2007 04:43 PM
Nice one nhallmark! Yeah, the 3 pip xed spread with CMC helped me out on this trade. ;) :) Does anyone know why the GBP pairs have a higher Beta than other pairs? It always seems like GBP/USD moves more than EUR/USD, and now the same with GBP/JPY vs USD/JPY... interesting...
Music_Producer
02-14-2007 08:17 PM
Oh crap, I completely missed out on the JPY GDP trade! I just forgot about it.. and that was one heck of a mover too! When I got back home from lunch I read you guys talking about it, and I was confused.. wondering where that came from :p Yeah Shard, for some reason GBP does move a lot more than the other currencies. Hence, I switched from eur/usd to gbp/usd quite some time back. I am not sure why.. maybe the Brits get a little too excited over all this :D
~Shard~
Quote:
02-14-2007 08:22 PM
Originally Posted by Music_Producer (Post 3356254) Oh crap, I completely missed out on the JPY GDP trade! I just forgot about it.. and that was one heck of a mover too! When I got back home from lunch I read you guys talking about it, and I was confused.. wondering where that came from :p
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1/15/08 8:25 PM
Ah, don't worry about it, that's the beauty of forex trading - there'll always be another trade... ;)
Quote:
Originally Posted by Music_Producer (Post 3356254) Yeah Shard, for some reason GBP does move a lot more than the other currencies. Hence, I switched from eur/usd to gbp/usd quite some time back. I am not sure why.. maybe the Brits get a little too excited over all this :D
Hey, as long as it's consistent I don't have a problem with that! Oh, and I'm entering 3 pretend trades tonight based on my MACD technical strategy. I'll see if I get stopped out or if I'm right, and if it's the latter, I will do a little write-up on my method. If not, well, back to the drawing board... :o ;) Regardless, I'll always have the news to trade (i.e. the facts and fundamentals) so it's all good. :cool:
Music_Producer
02-15-2007 01:36 AM
45 pips on the UK Retail sales report :D I love reports like these.. deviated by a big number.. came out at -1.2%. The GBP/USD kept dropping.. right now about 30 more pips after I got out.. will it go to 1.9500? Possible, but not likely.. but the way its dropping.. geez.. almost 100 pips. Retail sales sure is a powerful report! (also because it deviated by a big number) Next up are the US reports, better get some sleep till then!
Music_Producer
02-15-2007 05:42 AM
Hopefully no one got caught in the whipsaw.. I just made a pip on the gbp/usd trade right now (empire manufacturing) The gbp dipped for maybe 2-3 seconds.. by the time i got out it spiked back up so i only got out with a pip instead of 5.. apparently the unemployment report took everyone by surprise. 315 k was expected.. but it jumped to 357.. the highest since november. Again, this shows that a 'signicant' report like the empire manufacturing can be overshadowed by a higher deviation in a less signicant report. Hence, its best to trade single reports.. not when there are too many coming out at the same time.
~Shard~
Quote:
02-15-2007 05:44 AM
Originally Posted by Music_Producer (Post 3356754) 45 pips on the UK Retail sales report :D I love reports like these.. deviated by a big number.. came out at -1.2%. The GBP/USD kept dropping.. right now about 30 more pips after I got out.. will it go to 1.9500? Possible, but not likely.. but the way its dropping.. geez.. almost 100 pips. Retail sales sure is a powerful report! (also because it deviated by a big number) Next up are the US reports, better get some sleep till then!
Nice one! Unfortunately I elected to sleep this morning instead of trade. ;) I had got up the previous two mornings and wanted a good night's sleep today, even though I knew the report was coming out. There's
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always another trade though! Was all ready to trade the US data this morning however it seemed too conicting, as things didn't move that much. I'll be ready to trade the TIC report though in 15 minutes, then the data 15 minutes after that, then the data 45 minutes after that, then... ;) :D
Music_Producer
16 pips on the TIC report.. relatively easy. Just one more left before heading to bed :D Edit : I have a feeling its all bad news for USD today
02-15-2007 06:03 AM
~Shard~
02-15-2007 06:04 AM
Just traded the TIC Report. Made 5 pips on the EURUSD from 1.3146 to 1.3151. Got out before it corrected. :D The reason I didn't trade GBPUSD was because I had the BUY window ready on the EURUSD pair and the SELL ready on the GBPUSD so I could react either way as quickly as possible. ;) :cool: Industrial production is next...
~Shard~
02-15-2007 06:17 AM
Only 6 pips on the Industrial Production numbers. I got in a little late and since the USD has been weakening all morning I didn't know how much further it would slide, so I just wanted to take my modest prot and run. ;) As you say Music_Prodcuer, looks like a bad day for the US... good day for us though... ;) :cool:
Music_Producer
02-15-2007 06:18 AM
4 pips.. CMC's re-quotes (while closing a trade) are driving me insane.. I lost 6 pips because of the lag.. and then 8 pips during the TIC report. A little concerned about that, it can easily turn a potential prot in a loss.. did you get any re-quotes shard?
~Shard~
Quote:
02-15-2007 06:23 AM
Originally Posted by Music_Producer (Post 3357108) 4 pips.. CMC's re-quotes (while closing a trade) are driving me insane.. I lost 6 pips because of the lag.. and then 8 pips during the TIC report. A little concerned about that, it can easily turn a potential prot in a loss.. did you get any re-quotes shard?
Sorry to hear that Music_Producer. Nope, I was lucky today, no requotes at all... :o
Music_Producer
02-15-2007 06:33 AM
Shard, how do you close a trade? For e.g. if you buy gbp/usd.. once its executed.. you click 'new' and then hit 'sell' right?
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The manual states to right click on the executed order and close it.. but when I tried that a couple of times, it never seemed to work. :confused:
~Shard~
Quote:
02-15-2007 06:39 AM
Originally Posted by Music_Producer (Post 3357149) Shard, how do you close a trade? For e.g. if you buy gbp/usd.. once its executed.. you click 'new' and then hit 'sell' right? The manual states to right click on the executed order and close it.. but when I tried that a couple of times, it never seemed to work. :confused:
Never tried the right-click method actually... But yes, I just click NEW and BUY/SELL as quick as I can... I've experienced requotes as well but I've been lucky today so far. Mr. Bernanke speaks in about 20 minutes and then the Philly Index report comes out about 2 hours afterwards. There's denitely potential for a few more pips today... :)
nhallmark
02-15-2007 05:24 PM
Yeah..same thing happened to me, Music_Producer. I was up 10-12 pips and I went to close...it gave me a requote and I closed for -6 pips:mad: I should have cancelled the requote because it went back up and kept going after I closed. oh well. Is anyone trading German CPI or French Nonfarm tonight? I dont know whether to stay up or not..
~Shard~
Quote:
02-15-2007 09:07 PM
Originally Posted by nhallmark (Post 3359352) Is anyone trading German CPI or French Nonfarm tonight? I dont know whether to stay up or not..
I had a full trading day so I'm sleeping tonight. If I wake up for some reason around the right time, sure, maybe I'll pop on and see if there's a trade but that's very unlikely. ;) I'll denitely be trading PPI, BPs etc. tomorrow morning though. :cool:
Music_Producer
02-15-2007 10:04 PM
Nathan, I'm not trading anything today. The eur reports I have no clue if they move the markets.. but generally they don't. As for US PPI, I would have traded it but there are a couple of other reports coming out at the same time (housing starts) and I am afraid that if there is a huge conict, you will see nothing but whipsaws. If you are trading, trade with a small lot.. of course I could be wrong and you could see a move of a lot of
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pips, but I'd rather be safe than sorry.
~Shard~
Quote:
02-16-2007 10:34 AM
Originally Posted by Music_Producer (Post 3359921) Nathan, I'm not trading anything today. The eur reports I have no clue if they move the markets.. but generally they don't. As for US PPI, I would have traded it but there are a couple of other reports coming out at the same time (housing starts) and I am afraid that if there is a huge conict, you will see nothing but whipsaws. If you are trading, trade with a small lot.. of course I could be wrong and you could see a move of a lot of pips, but I'd rather be safe than sorry.
Yeah, I didn't trade either for the exact reasons you listed Music_Producer. I made my pips for the week so I'm happy. ;) As for my technical analysis methods, my MACD values need some ne tuning, so I'll be working on that this weekend. Based on some backtesting though there does seem to be a bit of consistency and potentiall, but not enough yet for my liking. I'll let you guys know when I have something ready for you to review and offer input on. :cool:
nhallmark
didnt trade PPI..came out as expected.
02-16-2007 02:44 PM
ok...Ive got another question. Supposedly, the BOJ rate decision is next week(Its not on the FF calendar, but thats what Ive heard). Ive learned that normally, if a central bank raises rates, the currency gets stronger...and if they cut rates, it gets weaker. But it seems a lot of people carry trade against the yen, so if they were to raise rates...would it go up or down? Im thinking it would go like any other rate decision...for the initial spike. But then the yen would get weaker because the yen gained quite a bit this week(GBP/JPY dropped 600 pips:eek: ) which could be from everyone liquidating their carry trades for the rate decision...then, whether they raise rates or not, everyone piles back in to their carry trades in the days after the announcement. Im not going to trade based on anything I just said, Im just trying to see if I understand whats going on. Any thoughts? Also, most of the JPY pairs have been in an uptrend for quite awhile, which is another reason for it to pick back up and also because all the central banks seem to want the yen weak for the global economy. Again, Im not trading on that, I just dont want to get screwed next week if they do raise rates and I sell GBP/JPY or AUD/JPY and then everyone piles back in to their carry trades.
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~Shard~
02-16-2007 05:11 PM
nhallmark, it's really too tough to say. Yes, in theory, if a country raises its interest rates it makes the currency more attractive and it should rise. But, if it's really expected, then perhaps the upside has already been factored in and built into the price prior to the announcement, resulting in not much of a move. Or, perhaps other economic factors will inhibit an upward move. As I said, tough to say. In the case of the Yen specically, there are a couple of factors which are possibly going to keep the JPY soft even should the BoJ hike rates next week (the announcement is the 21st btw). Relative yield spreads will remain signicantly against the Yen while the BoJ is holding yields down by continuing its GBP buying, despite ending quantitative easing. We'll just have to wait and see... :cool:
~Shard~
02-16-2007 05:26 PM
I've also developed a couple interesting theories when trying to investigate and prove out some of the technical trading techniques I'm currently looking at. Basically, the news traders and the technical traders have just as much "power" as each other. There are people who trade specically on technicals and charts whom (rightly or wrongly) impact the market just as much (if not more than!) the news traders who are trading on fact. It's somewhat ironic in a way, but it appears to be true. For instance, a NFP report could come out with a huge negative surprise, however once all the news traders jump on board trying to short on the news, a (possibly even larger) group of technical traders will move the markets themselves by executing BUY orders once a certain resistance level it met, RSI becomes stupidly oversold, a MA is crossed, etc. - and then the pair will skyrocket upwards, even though, solely based on the facts and "logic" it shouldn't due to the bad news. I guess what I'm getting at is that some people who only trade the news sometimes perhaps look down at technical traders, calling them "noise traders" and saying that their methods aren't valid, as they are not taking into account actual events and fundamentals. But in the end (again rightly or wrongly) it doesn't matter, and you have to keep in mind what the technical traders are doing as well, or else you might nd yourself executing, what is in your mind, the proper trade on a news item, only to nd the pair swing the other way and hand you a loss. Shorting a pair on a bad report? Well, when it drops and hits a key support trend line and automatically generates a ton of BUY orders, look out! ;) I guess a good parallel might be the carry trade, i.e. a pair held articially high at times due to what it represents, as opposed to what pure economic factors and news may or may not report. Just some thoughts. I'd appreciate any feedback. :cool:
Music_Producer
02-17-2007 03:07 AM
I would tend to agree with about 50% of what you mention Shard. First of all, I don't think any news trader looks down upon technical traders.. in fact, technical trading is less stressful than news trading. Not to mention - all the risk factors associated with news trading such as re-quotes, delayed executions, whipsaws, etc. With any currency, there are resistance levels because of the stops placed by the various banks who are in active trades. To prevent the currency level from hitting that stop.. the related banks would buy/sell .. whatever necessary to avoid losses. I look at any currency movement after the news this way When the news comes out +ve, the currency jumps up.. and after a few seconds.. it comes down again (if the report has not deviated by that much) I think that can be attributed to simple prot taking. You have all the traders buying when the news comes out.. and they all take their prots in 3-4 seconds.. so you will
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obviously see the level drop. On the other hand, yes.. when stops are involved.. for e.g. if gbp/usd is 1.9630.. and GBP+ve news comes out.. and GBP/USD jumps to 1.9690.. you can be sure that if it hits 1.9700 it will be met by a lot of resistance.. simply due to the massive stops probably placed at that level.. it's a psychological factor really. When it hits 1.9700 I would short it, expecting it to dip down to 1.9680-1.9660 or so. This happens because: 1. All the news traders start taking their prots *and* 2. The banks who have placed stops at 1.9700 get in and start shorting GBP/USD to prevent that stop from being hit. Now obviously it's a battle between these two groups.. once 1.9700 gets broken (if the news is super positive for e.g. an unexpected rate hike) then 1.9750 would be the next level (or whatever resistance levels that can be calculated) I've seen tons of technical traders look down upon news traders because.. news traders cause all the spikes! If you see plowcow mention in an earlier post regarding the USD/JPY .. he mentioned that when it hits 120.. it should go back up. Why? Because its a massive resistance level.. common sense. However, if any news that is terrible for the USD comes out.. then no resistance is a match for it. As a result USD/JPY touched 119.00 (not at once, but pretty fast) Let's say I wasn't fast enough to get in on the news spikes. How would I trade then? Probably by placing orders at the resistance levels, like you mentioned Shard. If gbp/usd is 1.9640.. I would place a short at 1.9700 (pre-news) and a buy at 1.9600. Whatever hits, I can be sure to make a few pips prot (hopefully) But sometimes, mind you.. a news report can come out that can make a currency plunge by 800 pips in 24 hours. You'll keep buying at all resistance levels.. and you'll keep getting screwed. So all the technical stuff goes out the window in face of such strong news. Hence in my opinion, I would suggest - why not trade both ways? A smart trader should trade news *and* technicals. Place orders at the resistance levels, and trade the news as well. Eventually it depends which one suits you the best.. for me, news trading suits me as I have absolutely no patience to watch a currency move to a certain level. I need to get in, and get out. I'm not the types to hold on to a trade.. I can't even see a 1-5 pip loss.. I get heartburn :p Nathan:I don't know about these JPY interest rate trades.. because they never come out any xed time. So if you are looking to trade the actual news report.. I suggest you don't. I've watched it before and never liked it. The carry trades should continue strong - japan is expected to hold its interest rates steady. If they do surprise everyone by raising them.. you should see all the JPY pairs drop by quite a bit.. who knows.. 300-600 pips maybe. But its in japan's best interests to keep their currency levels low. Additionally, their ination data never showed any risk of ination in the rst place.. so they have no need really to hike rates. In fact, the ination is dipping.. so they might actually *reduce* the rates back.. (not so soon obviously.. it depends on future ination reports)
~Shard~
02-17-2007 07:23 AM
Thanks for the thoughts Music_Prodcuer, I agree with what you've said. I've always thought you need to be aware of both sides of he "trading fence" (technical and fundamental) but in the end, as you state, you have to do what's right for you, and more importantly, what you're good at! As you say, with trading the news, you can get in, get out, take your pips and leave. There is no need to open a long term position and worry how it might move, if news will adversely affect it, or if it dips and you end up having to carry it for days with not only a signicant paper loss but also nancing to deal with. Trading the news wrt forex is obviously how I started (thanks to this thread and you!) :)) and is probably how
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I will continue for the most part, however if I can have some success in trading the technicals as well, hey, why not! ;) To that end, I'm going to continue playing around and seeing if I can nd some consistency in some of my strategies. Once I have something worth sharing (i.e. that won't be a waste of time for you guys to review :o) I'll denitely post it. Once again, thanks for the feedback, I think you're pretty much on the money (pardon the pun) with your thoughts. :cool:
Apemanblues
No. That Australian beer sucks.
02-18-2007 03:54 AM
~Shard~
Quote:
02-18-2007 08:34 AM
Originally Posted by Apemanblues (Post 3366219) No. That Australian beer sucks.
That joke would be funny if it hadn't already been made countless times in this thread by other one-time posters. Thanks for coming out though. :p :cool:
PiP Dicatator
I just bought a brand new Mac and a brand new PC and guess what I bought it for?
02-18-2007 08:46 AM
That's right..... Forex trading, I went for a 2 monitor display set-up, anyway imagine my surprise when I sign up to a Mac forum and I nd a conversation about Forex. I think I am going to like this forum. Anyway I am a full time trader and have been for 4 years. So if anybody has any questions feel free to ask. I also got a few good systems I am trying out if anybody is interested I can share those. Now onto other business I spelt my nickname wrong it should be PiP Dictator not Dicatator is there any way to change it? :eek: P.S. I am from Australia and NO COUNTRY IN THE WORLD MAKES A BETTER BEER THAN........ Germany (Though I was going to say Australia didn't you?)
Apemanblues
Quote:
02-18-2007 08:47 AM
Originally Posted by ~Shard~ (Post 3366550) That joke would be funny if it hadn't already been made countless times in this thread by other one-time posters. Thanks for coming out though. :p :cool:
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Damn. Maybe I should really read through threads....... Naaaaaaaaah. Never in a million years.

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~Shard~
02-18-2007 11:55 AM
Welcome to our thread PIP Dictator! Please read through things when you have a spare hour or two ;) and let us know your thoughts. And obviously any insight, tips, strategies etc. you can share with us would be most welcome. :)
Quote:
Originally Posted by PiP Dicatator (Post 3366588) Now onto other business I spelt my nickname wrong it should be PiP Dictator not Dicatator is there any way to change it?
PM a Mod and indicate that you made a simple spelling mistake. Since you just signed up they shouldn't have a problem changing it for you. Drop my name if necessary. :cool: Oh, and it's a good idea to participate in a lot of the main threads as well - the Mods don't like it sometimes when someone signs on just to participate in one "off-topic" thread such as this one. As long as you contribute to the other actual Mac-related threads as well, it'll all be good. ;) :)
Quote:
Originally Posted by Apemanblues (Post 3366594) Damn. Maybe I should really read through threads....... Naaaaaaaaah. Never in a million years.
Yeah, that would require far too much effort, right? :p ;)
PiP Dicatator
02-19-2007 03:48 AM
I haven't had time to look through the forum so i do know know if you guys are active traders but if you re you will have noticed that GBP/USD and GBP in general has dropped like a stone. Here is why! The move was caused due to the MPC report released by the BoE Here is the culprit himself http://www.publications.parliament.u...99/299weii.pdf The actual comments that caused the bearish move are "GBP depreciation will probably be necessary"
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Ination fo the U.K is still high at the moment but it is at the lowest is has been for a long time. We could see possible rate cuts in the next 6 months. We got the UK GDP coming out this week and the BoE minutes meeting which will be worth taking a look at.
Music_Producer
02-19-2007 05:15 AM
Oh yeah, these statements come out from time to time. Before the G7 summit.. there was talk about an agenda to discuss the weak yen.. and take possible action. So all the JPY pairs dropped. I bought AUD/JPY and GBP/JPY when they were low.. because it's a known fact that everyone always 'talks' about how a currency should be tweaked.. etc. When the actual G7 summit came.. there was no talk about the Yen.. as I expected. It was just a chance for people to make some good prots on the carry trade.
PiP Dicatator
02-19-2007 10:40 AM
Well i pegegd that retrace got into GBP/USD for the up trend after that report it was apparent it would move up. Entered GBP/JPY also for a combined total of 400 pips today I can relax for the next 6 months lol... By the way guys I am a pro trader don't throw money in if you do not know what you are doing. If you have any questions ask I am happy to share questions and trading systems.
nhallmark
02-20-2007 11:56 AM
Im not planning on trading the actual BOJ announcement, Im just trying to gure out the market psychology of it because sometimes its backwards. For example, when ination is higher, thats supposed to be bad, but the currency gets stronger because it means there is more chance of a rate hike, right? So, like Shard said, I guess we will just have to wait and see.
Quote:
Originally Posted by PiP Dicatator (Post 3370014) Well i pegegd that retrace got into GBP/USD for the up trend after that report it was apparent it would move up. Entered GBP/JPY also for a combined total of 400 pips today I can relax for the next 6 months lol... By the way guys I am a pro trader don't throw money in if you do not know what you are doing. If you have any questions ask I am happy to share questions and trading systems.
Yeah, I got 72 pips on GBP/JPY on that ride up. I traded it with a very small lot though because I am just now learning about technicals and I wasnt really sure what I was doing. If you want to share your system(s), Im all ears. Im just trying to learn anything and everything I can about it right now.:)
~Shard~
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1/15/08 8:26 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by nhallmark (Post 3373955) For example, when ination is higher, thats supposed to be bad, but the currency gets stronger because it means there is more chance of a rate hike, right?
You have it half right. When ination is high, this is bad for the economy in general as it means the banks need to raise interest rates to combat the ination. However, if a country's intererst rates are higher, more people will be attraced to purchase its currency due to the higher interest rates. Look at the AUDJPY pair for instance - that's the whole principle behind the carry trade - the AUD is an attractive currency because you can invest and make 6.25% on it while only having to pay 0.25% to borrow yen against it. Good return there. Too bad you couldn't buy Iceland's currency - I wouldn't mind sticking $100K in an Icelandic bank earning 11%/year or whatever their rate currently is! :eek: :) :D
Quote:
Originally Posted by nhallmark (Post 3373955) If you want to share your system(s), Im all ears. Im just trying to learn anything and everything I can about it right now.:)
I agree - the more information that is shared and the more learning that goes is, the better for all of us. Please do take the time to share some of your insights and methods PIP Dictator, we're more than eager to learn. :cool:
Music_Producer
02-20-2007 07:50 PM
Bank of Japan just raised interest rates to 0.50% Big surprise.. I've exited all carry trades for now. Will look to get back in when jpy pairs still head downwards. Then again it depends what the BOJ chief says.. if he says this is it for the entire year then all jpy pairs will shoot back up.
~Shard~
02-20-2007 07:54 PM
Just shorted USDJPY and EURJPY - got in a little late (wanted to conrm the news) but still made 40 pips between the 2 of them! :D :cool:
nhallmark
02-20-2007 10:04 PM
I didn't trade the press reports because I thought the ofcial report would matter more, but even with the 8-1 vote, it still shot up so I caught 40 pips on that. So, for this week, Im up 110 pips. 100 pips was my goal for this month so Im happy:D
Music_Producer
02-20-2007 11:05 PM
Great going guys! Check out all the JPY pairs now.. they are back to the pre-report levels! This has to do with the speech that usually follows an interest rate decision. Apparently the BOJ has decided to keep rates
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low.. so all the carry traders jumped back in. Personally I think the jpy pairs should fall quite a bit, then again maybe I could be wrong. I would like to see AUD/JPY fall to say 87-88.. GBP/JPY to 225.. and then I'll get back in.. just to be on the safe side.
gauchogolfer
02-20-2007 11:40 PM
I just wanted to pipe in and say that after reading the rst ~10 pages of this thread and the last couple (to get up to date) I'm going to open a game account and give this a shot. Even though I don't like waking up early here on the west coast ;). I look forward to learning more from all of you, and would like to say thanks to CurrenSea and Music Producer for the great explanations about this trading. Cheers!
PiP Dicatator
02-20-2007 11:57 PM
First of all I should share broker information do not sign up with forex.com or fxcm.com they will screw you over with stop hunting and locking you out during news. My pick is http://www.fastbrokersfx.com/ they have an ok charting platform, fast execution, great entries on news and they don't seem like they stop hunt. I will give some strategies later out soon.
Music_Producer
02-21-2007 02:45 AM
FXCM.. hmm .. they didn't even ll me in during non-news reports :rolleyes: I don't know how they're still in business.. they should have been shut down a long time ago. Bagged 24 pips on the UK BOE minutes, next up US CPI. I'm still watching the JPY pairs and still can't believe they shot up that fast.. lol, it's too funny. All those carry traders just couldn't wait!
Music_Producer
02-21-2007 05:36 AM
21 pips on the US CPI report (deviation was only 0.1%) Huge lot though, so I'm very satised right now :D Hey gaucho.. where you been?! I see you hopping in and out from time to time :p If you can't t the trading patterns in your schedule.. I recommend you trade news reports like Aussie/Kiwi ones. They usually come out at 4.30 pm PST - 7 pm PST. They're very limited unlike the UK and US reports but they do move really well. I know that I could do well if I just traded one AUD/USD report once a month.. (obviously with a massive lot) So look into that as well.
nhallmark
02-21-2007 05:46 AM
I slept through the BoE minutes and I got a requote on US CPI:mad: ...Im still happy about last night though.
Quote:
Originally Posted by PiP Dicatator (Post 3375897) First of all I should share broker information do not sign up with forex.com or fxcm.com they will screw you over with stop hunting and locking you out during news.
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My pick is http://www.fastbrokersfx.com/ they have an ok charting platform, fast execution, great entries on news and they don't seem like they stop hunt. I will give some strategies later out soon.
Yeah, I looked at their site and they use MT4 which is great for techs but, from my experience(on a demo), it sucks for news. There base spreads are also high...EUR/USD-5, GBP/USD-6, GBP/JPY-10. And that was their "best" under "normal maket conditions". What's so great about them?
PiP Dicatator
02-21-2007 06:43 AM
They are great for news trading MetaTrader is a platform not a broker, brokers use the MetaTrader platform they just pay MetaTrader monthly. although I trade 4 hour charts so 5 pip spread GBP/USD = 3 pip spread USD/CHF = 3 pip spread EUR/USD = 2 pip spread USD/CAD = 3 pip spread GBP/JPY = 7 pip spread but this pair is usually 10 pips The broker sues MetaTrader platform but the spread and execution are completely up to them.
lagunacat
Quote:
02-21-2007 08:07 AM
Originally Posted by Music_Producer (Post 3375851) Personally I think the jpy pairs should fall quite a bit, then again maybe I could be wrong. I would like to see AUD/JPY fall to say 87-88.. GBP/JPY to 225.. and then I'll get back in.. just to be on the safe side.
MP, how did you do with the JPY yesterday? I happened to be holding USD/JPY short when it dove around 7pm (pst) then was monitoring it a couple hours later when it shot up. I jumped in and did really well. I didn't have the advantage of the news like you-just dumb luck.
gauchogolfer
Quote:
02-21-2007 08:33 AM
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Originally Posted by Music_Producer (Post 3376237) 21 pips on the US CPI report (deviation was only 0.1%) Huge lot though, so I'm very satised right now :D Hey gaucho.. where you been?! I see you hopping in and out from time to time :p If you can't t the trading patterns in your schedule.. I recommend you trade news reports like Aussie/Kiwi ones. They usually come out at 4.30 pm PST - 7 pm PST. They're very limited unlike the UK and US reports but they do move really well. I know that I could do well if I just traded one AUD/USD report once a month.. (obviously with a massive lot) So look into that as well.
Thanks for the tip! I'm a true newbie at this, so I've just started my game account to get used to the mechanics of making trades, using the software, etc. Could you post the link again to the Yahoo business news page you use, which lists the upcoming news reports? I'm interested in doing some 'real-time' trades to see how fast of a trigger nger is necessary. :)
PiP Dicatator
02-21-2007 08:37 AM
guys you should replace your USD/JPY trades with GBP/JPY it moves more. With a good system and some fundamental analysis you can set a 20-40 pip stop loss and aim for 200 pips or more. I entered a Long trade on Monday and have held it till now I am currently up over 350 pips. the stop loss was only 40 pips (40 pips is big for day trading but when we are talking swing trades it is very very small) The best method I came buy in recent times was a method called the VanessaFX system it is written by a 20 something year old lady that has an account worth over one million. http://rapidshare.com/les/11160233...ed_Systems.pdf http://rapidshare.com/les/12281165...ed_Systems.pdf http://www.yourlelink.com/get.php?d=264448 these are all the same les it was posted with multiple links in case one was down so I just threw them all up. It is a PDF le. It is getting quite popular but beware just those indicator will cause you to fail you need to use it in conjunction with support/resistance lines and Candle stick patterns.
PiP Dicatator
02-21-2007 08:40 AM
On what Music said reports can be dangerous as they are prone to revisions and comments by the releaser. You wont be trading the number you will be trading traders interpretation of the number. Smarter option is to learn economics (not advanced just general) and learn technical analysis.
PiP Dicatator
Quote:
02-21-2007 08:47 AM
Originally Posted by gauchogolfer (Post 3376665) Thanks for the tip! I'm a true newbie at this, so I've just started my game account to get used to the
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mechanics of making trades, using the software, etc. Could you post the link again to the Yahoo business news page you use, which lists the upcoming news reports? I'm interested in doing some 'real-time' trades to see how fast of a trigger nger is necessary. :)
Here is a better economic calendar than Yahoo, it is more detailed and they have colour coding for expected volatility. They also have good analysis they do not have any now because as far as i have heard they are in the middle of an upgrade but I asked the owner and he has assured me from next week onwards the analysis will be there. It is a free service by the way. http://www.forexclarity.com/calendar/ You may also consider paying for a news program that tells you release numbers within 1-2 second of the actual release. This allows for faster entries and a higher chance of success as you can see if any revisions or comments are made. I suggest trade the news for this since you are new and this is the cheapest but still very good. They offer a one week trial so you can test it out if you like. I think the price for text is $40 per month. www.tradethenews.com/
~Shard~
02-21-2007 09:18 AM
I recently found out that a friend of a coworker of my wife (let's see, yep, I got it right! :o ;) ) day trades forex professionally. He lives on a sailboat and sails the waters while sleeping in 4 hour increments in order to take advantage of the world markets - what a life! :D At any rate, we've exchanged a few short e-mails back and forth so far, but one of his quotes stuck out in my mind, especially as I am investigating more and more technical analysis and charting wirth repsect to forex trading. I asked him if he focuses on technical or news trading, and when he said technical trading I asked, "But the technicals go out the window if a huge news item hits, right? How do you know what's going to happen?" To which he replied: Show me the chart and I'll tell you the news. Not that I necessarily believe that to be absolutely true, however I found that quite cool regardless... ;) :cool: Anyway, made 5 pips on the CAD announcement - good enough for today. More trading tomorrow... :cool:
~Shard~
Quote:
02-21-2007 09:20 AM
Originally Posted by PiP Dicatator (Post 3376713) They offer a one week trial so you can test it out if you like. I think the price for text is $40 per month. www.tradethenews.com/
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I'm on the trial right now - highly recommend it. If only I could justify the $180/month audio service... :o ;)
PiP Dicatator
There is a good forum here www.forexclarity.com/forum Anybody tried the system yet?
02-22-2007 02:25 AM
nhallmark
02-22-2007 02:32 AM
PiP Dictator, I'll be trying out those systems over the next few weeks. I can denitely see how it works. Shard, thats cool about your friend's, friend's, friend :p . I notice how the news will just conrm the techs sometimes. I dont think its often enough to bet on it though. My main issue with technicals is waiting. It annoys me to no end...which is probably why I news trade(that and the fact that news trading was the rst thing I learned, courtesy of MP and Shard ;) ) I guess I can trade with techs on one account and it'll be "work", and then I can news trade on another account because news trading is still where all the fun is, at least for me :cool:
nhallmark
Quote:
02-22-2007 02:38 AM
Originally Posted by PiP Dicatator (Post 3379539) There is a good forum here www.forexclarity.com/forum Anybody tried the system yet?
I guess we just posted at the same time. Anyway, yeah, it looks like, for the main system, there wont be another entry until next week. On the intraday system, Im just waiting for an entry and I missed both at 1:30am(central) today b/c I was sleeping. Im starting a new sleep schedule though because Im realizing that all the moves are when Im normally asleep :rolleyes:
PiP Dicatator
02-22-2007 04:59 AM
In my opinion you should trade fundamentals along with technicals, beware of that system you should understand technical analysis before trading it. A lot of the signals you shouldn't take there is a lot to it. When using the intra day system I take maybe 1 out of every 5 trades and when trading the 4 hour system I use fundamental analysis quite heavily if the fundamentals don't line up I do not enter. If you want news there is a goof fundamental analysis newsletter on the same site as the forum I posted. There is a guy there that trades a few releases a week he write full reports on how to trade it and exactly what deviation to use. It looks like a lot of analysis goes into the thing, it is on a free trial at the moment if you sign up now you might still make it in but don't take my word for it. I like it it provides me with information that it would take me hours to nd and there is also heaps more information.
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Unfortunately anything good in thus business has a price on it but its pretty cheap so I don't mind the subscription. I am going to post a scalping system tomorrow it is my own and it works on 1 min charts I use it when I am bored and waiting for a big move.
~Shard~
02-22-2007 05:36 AM
No trade this morning, US unemployment data came out with little deviation from estimates. Thanks for posting that link PIP Dictator I'll denitely take a look at it. I am looking forward to reviewing your scalping method as well. For me it's all about learning and becoming a better trader, so I'll take whatever you have! Thanks again. :) No more trading for me today though until later tonight. Have fun guys... :cool:
nhallmark
02-22-2007 07:42 AM
Just made 15 pips trading that intraday system :) 10 on EUR/USD and 5 on USD/CHF. I got out early on USD/CHF. I was playing it safe ;)
PiP Dicatator
good 15 pips is not bad at all 5 pips a day can make you a fortune.
02-22-2007 08:18 AM
If you look back last year in what I think was November the 4 hour system gave a signal on a 1000 pip move. The 24 year old good looking girl that wrote that system doubled her account on that trade. She trades over on million now. The guy that runs the site who I think is her boyfriend is supposedly an even better trader and he is 20. You need to have some serious skill to double an account like that. I make a very good living from trading but her story is amazing. Don't get a fantasy in your head that because they are young and successful it is easy. It is a rare breed that can claim that type of success in Forex and even though they are young I think between them they have 12 years experience. I will throw up my scalping system later just going to rene it a little and remove the technical talk since you guys are for the most part fairly new.
nhallmark
Quote:
02-22-2007 08:53 AM
Originally Posted by PiP Dicatator (Post 3380239) good 15 pips is not bad at all 5 pips a day can make you a fortune.
Yeah, now I wish I would have held on...both of them broke out and I would be sitting at +70 pips right now. Im sure I'll get more of a feel for it after I get used to it.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PiP Dicatator (Post 3380239) I will throw up my scalping system later just going to rene it a little and remove the technical talk since you guys are for the most part fairly new.
Or, you could throw it up with the "technical talk" and we could ask questions...if you dont mind. :) I understand support/resistance, bs, and trend lines for the most part. Beyond that, Im not sure.
Music_Producer
02-23-2007 01:42 AM
23 pips on the UK GDP report, and 5 pips on the Eur German ZEW sentiment report (exited too fast.. it dropped by a further 15 pips) More than enough for the day.. enjoy the weekend guys :)
~Shard~
Nice one Music_Producer! This morning I elected to sleep instead of trade. ;) :D More trades next week - everyone have a great weekend! :)
02-23-2007 04:46 AM
nhallmark
02-23-2007 06:06 AM
I went back to sleep after the alarm went off..oh well. I made 125 pips this week so Im more than happy :D PiP Dictator, are you still in that GBP/JPY trade from the beginning of this week?
alpharedecho
02-23-2007 11:45 AM
I just started trading the forex 2 years ago, with out much success. Just bought a system from www.progressivefx.com with the hopes of making some money. So far I am even, but I have only owned it for 2 days. My long position on the USD/CHF has taken a beating, but it looks like it may rally! :) Anyone here try this system before, I am curious about others success/failures with it.
nhallmark
02-23-2007 12:13 PM
alpharedecho, I would be cautious of paying money for a system. There are plenty of free systems on various forex forums. The one PiP Dictator posted above is free and Ive already made 15 pips from it. Also, this entire thread will give you a good education in forex and show you how to make money trading the news. Its all free. Aside from that, have you looked into WHY USD/CHF has gone down? The answer to that question will
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probably help more than any system. Meant only in kindness, Nathan
~Shard~
Good advice nhallmark, you pretty much took the words out of my mouth. ;) :)
02-23-2007 01:11 PM
Music_Producer
02-23-2007 02:24 PM
In my personal opinion.. *any* system will fail. I've read through all of them and they are nothing more than subtle variations of a main theme - i.e. support and resistance.. and macd, ema lines. Additionally, another thing I've noticed is that the authors of such systems.. when they make these e-books or whatever, conveniently show trades which are successful.. and their entries/exits are almost always *before* the ema or macd lines cross :p Sure, they might work.. but I doubt they work all the time. This is just a personal opinion, before you guys swallow me :D Just looking out for your best interest. Trade technicals, but watch out for any report that can screw up your trade for good. Shard, tell your wife's friend's friend 'Show me the news and i'll tell you the charts' :p lol.. I jest of course, but I just had to put that in here!! :)
protie
02-23-2007 02:37 PM
I agree MP, there is no system that will give you 100% success. Personally if I ever see a system where the author claims you will never lose and always prot with their system, I will be looking elsewhere :)
Quote:
Originally Posted by PiP Dicatator (Post 3375897) First of all I should share broker information do not sign up with forex.com or fxcm.com they will screw you over with stop hunting and locking you out during news. My pick is http://www.fastbrokersfx.com/ they have an ok charting platform, fast execution, great entries on news and they don't seem like they stop hunt. I will give some strategies later out soon.
PiP, I am glad I read your post. I was very close to opening an account with Forex.com. MP already warned me about fxcm, so I was avoiding them already. I have checked out fastbrokersfx.com and from what I have seen so far I am interested. I really liked Forex.com for their platform layout, but if you say stay clear of them, I will take your advice. One thing, can someone explain to me what "Stop Hunting" is though? Thanks to everyone for all the good advice here in this thread. It has been very helpful to me in preparing for live forex trading.
~Shard~
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02-23-2007 03:29 PM
1/15/08 8:26 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Music_Producer (Post 3384697) In my personal opinion.. *any* system will fail. I've read through all of them and they are nothing more than subtle variations of a main theme - i.e. support and resistance.. and macd, ema lines. Additionally, another thing I've noticed is that the authors of such systems.. when they make these e-books or whatever, conveniently show trades which are successful.. and their entries/exits are almost always *before* the ema or macd lines cross Sure, they might work.. but I doubt they work all the time. This is just a personal opinion, before you guys swallow me. Just looking out for your best interest. Trade technicals, but watch out for any report that can screw up your trade for good.
I totally agree - I would take any "system" with a grain of salt. Even when I have used technical analysis and charting in the past, it's been more of a "one of" situation, where I've seen a really low RSI or I've seen something specic and taken advantage of it - it has never been an indicator or "system" which I have tried to consistently follow. I got into this whole forex trading again thanks to you Music_Producer and it has been due to the success I've had on trading the news - as a result, this will always be my primary method I think. That being said, being able to take advantage of some technical moves will be a nice complement. ;) :cool:
Quote:
Originally Posted by Music_Producer (Post 3384697) Shard, tell your wife's friend's friend 'Show me the news and i'll tell you the charts' :p lol.. I jest of course, but I just had to put that in here!! :)
Haha, no worries, I know where you're coming from! I thought you'd get a kick out of that regardless, as I found it in an intriguing quote. I know where he's coming from, but that being said, you can never ignore the fundamentals. Of course, you'll always run into technical traders who took a position based on the charts before the big Japanese interest rate announcement and then after the dust settled they're still ahead, who would then cite that the news had no effect on them, but I question whether sometimes that's just blind luck. Again, I think it's naive to ignore the news. :cool: Then again, my wife's friend is the one living on a sailboat, not me... :o ;)
Quote:
Originally Posted by protie (Post 3384738) One thing, can someone explain to me what "Stop Hunting" is though?
It's all about arbitrage. :cool: More specically, stop-hunting is a tactic employed by institutional traders at banks, forex brokerages, etc. to drive the price into their customers' stops or the stops of other traders. Since an unscrupulous brokerage can quote its own internal forex prices, it has the ability to move its prices substantially from the normal interbank rates to trigger customer stops. The broker can then perform its own arbitrage with those stop-loss orders by clearing the currency lots obtained in its "stop hunt" at a better price with its interbank counter-
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party. Let's say you set a stop at 1.2855 and the broker can sell that lot into the interbank market at 1.2860 well, in this loosely regulated market, they might just go on a "stop hunt". :rolleyes: Hope that helps. :cool:

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nhallmark
02-23-2007 03:38 PM
Yeah, Music_Producer, news trading(if you know what youre doing) has the least amount of losses and when you do have a loss, its always your fault(or the brokers) and with techs you can say "the system was wrong" which doesnt help you become a better trader. I nd it weird how techs work because if the currency is going to move up 100 pips there is proabably a reason for it. Im sure the guys at Citi arent all "OMG!! OMG!! the MACD crossed...buy $7 billion!!!" :p For example, today the dollar fell across the board because(from what I could tell from TTN) there are rumours going around that the US is invading Iran this weekend. After that came out, everyone started selling dollars. Im sure there is some system out there that would have given a signal on that but its always better to know why. Thats why I was asking about the carry trades a few days ago. Because GBP/JPY dropped 600 pips last week, yet there are so many reasons for it to go back up. So, according to what I thought, I traded on that and made 72 pips. Then, after I looked a PiP Dictator's system, oddly enough it showed a signal about 50 pips before I bought. So, I guess what I am trying to say is, yeah, the news wins at the end of the day because whats actually happening in the world is what causes people(or banks) to buy/sell...but the techs also help conrm it and I get to make money that I otherwise wouldnt be making :)
Music_Producer
02-23-2007 08:13 PM
Lol nathan @ the MACD comment.. that one cracked me up as I was actually imagining it :p Carry trades will always be inated.. everyone just wants the interest. Another thing that helps carry traders is that japan *wants* its currency to remain at low levels.. and interest rates low. Nobody would buy stuff from japan if they raised their currency.. I mean, japan is losing out to china anyway.. so why make the situation worse? If any JPY positive news does come out.. JPY pairs will dip of course.. but then eventually go back up. Also note that a lot of traders take their prots.. accounting for those dips.. and then they get back in the trade. Accumulating all that interest *plus* thousands of pips in prot = bliss. We might have a good New Zealand trade coming up on sunday (NZD trade balance) Gaucho, this is a good opportunity for you to watch and see what happens to NZD/USD if there is a nice deviation on the report. Shard, nathan..hopefully you guys will trade and not be asleep :p :D
~Shard~
Quote:
02-23-2007 08:17 PM
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Originally Posted by Music_Producer (Post 3385534) We might have a good New Zealand trade coming up on sunday (NZD trade balance) Gaucho, this is a good opportunity for you to watch and see what happens to NZD/USD if there is a nice deviation on the report. Shard, nathan..hopefully you guys will trade and not be asleep :p :D
No worries, I'll be watching that one for sure - no sleeping for me this time! ;) :D That being said, I'm leaving for vegas on Tuesday for a week and a half, so no trading for me until mid-March...
nhallmark
I'll denitely be trading it. I assume CMC will let you trade on sunday?
02-24-2007 07:22 AM
Im asking because oanda widened their spreads to where you couldnt trade until monday morning.
~Shard~
Quote:
02-24-2007 07:51 AM
Originally Posted by nhallmark (Post 3386328) I'll denitely be trading it. I assume CMC will let you trade on sunday? Im asking because oanda widened their spreads to where you couldnt trade until monday morning.
If the markets are open, CMC should be open and will allow you to trade. I haven't had any troubles with them in the past when I've been logged on on a Sunday night, so we'll have to see about a late Sunday afternoon this time. ;) The number is expected to be lower than last report which therefore would be construed as negative for the currency, correct? Or, since this lower # is expected, if it does indeed come out as such, will the currency not move at all? Thoughts?
PiP Dicatator
Quote:
02-24-2007 08:01 PM
Originally Posted by Music_Producer (Post 3384697) In my personal opinion.. *any* system will fail. I've read through all of them and they are nothing more than subtle variations of a main theme - i.e. support and resistance.. and macd, ema lines. Additionally, another thing I've noticed is that the authors of such systems.. when they make these e-books or whatever, conveniently show trades which are successful.. and their entries/exits are almost always *before* the ema or macd lines cross :p Sure, they might work.. but I doubt they work all the time. This is just a personal opinion, before you guys swallow me :D Just looking out for your best interest. Trade technical!s, but watch out for any report that can screw up your trade for good.
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Shard, tell your wife's friend's friend 'Show me the news and i'll tell you the charts!:p lol.. I jest of course, but I just had to put that in here!! :)
Hey man I am not sure how much experience you have but you are mostly right. What the system i posted teaches is that you need to be able to use support/resistance and candle patterns. What that means is you need to know how to trade before using this system. At its core technical analysis is just price action and she stresses that you need to be able to understand price action and the MA's, Parabolics, MACD's are jsut a secondary to that. Anybody can give you a bunch of indicators but nobody tells you that you have to have an intimate knowledge of the market before you can actually make money trade them. She also stresses fundamental analysis. To me a real trader does not trade just Technical!s or just News Reports. A real trader knows 1) Economics and how they affect the market (this includes News Reports) 2) Technical!s this ranged from basic price action analysis to the use of indicators. 3) Money Management That is the only reason why I would share this system with everybody because I am a professional trader and when I see a direct, honest piece of work I let people know about it. That system is not just another system telling you to bunch together indicators it tells you that you need to understand technical!s and fundamentals. Support/resistances lines and candles are at the core of technical analysis and without understand that this system is useless. The same with fundamentals if you don!t bother to learn them this system is useless. I wouldn't post just another system (a bunching of indicators) I only post thing that work.
PiP Dicatator
02-24-2007 08:05 PM
It just make me angry when I here people say fundamentals are better than technical's or vice versa. The real traders those of us who have been around for a while and are still going strong and will be for the next 10-20-30-50 years to come are successful because we understand its a balance of both forms of analysis that makes a trader. It took me 5 years to gure that out but she apparently got it straight away and that's why the girl that wrote that system is already a millionaire at the age of 24.
PiP Dicatator
02-24-2007 08:17 PM
P.S. Market opens at around 4pm (NY EST) on Sunday because this is when the Sydney market opens. The currency trading market opens when Sydney opens so from 4pm Sunday you are able to trade normally. Oanda allows trading on the weekend, it is only useful if you are holding a position and you hear a report of a terrorist attack or a natural disaster and want to exit.
nhallmark
02-25-2007 01:48 PM
TTN was about 2 minutes late...wow. So, I didnt trade because I didnt get the news. Did you guys get it on time?
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Edit: Im talking about NZD trade balance in case that wasnt clear.
Music_Producer
Quote:
02-25-2007 02:12 PM
Originally Posted by nhallmark (Post 3389898) TTN was about 2 minutes late...wow. So, I didnt trade because I didnt get the news. Did you guys get it on time? Edit: Im talking about NZD trade balance in case that wasnt clear.
Nope, saw nzd move before the news came out.. so I suspected something was up. I guess the folks at TTN are all being lazy.. its a Sunday :p
~Shard~
02-25-2007 05:00 PM
Me too - saw things move before the news so I didn't feel condent on what would happen when the news actually came out - further move, or a correction? Didn't trade...
savar
Quote:
02-26-2007 12:35 PM
Originally Posted by Music_Producer (Post 3389963) Nope, saw nzd move before the news came out.. so I suspected something was up. I guess the folks at TTN are all being lazy.. its a Sunday :p
Does anybody here have a Bloomberg Anywhere (BBA) account? I've been looking all over the web for for more information but BBA is amazingly undocumented. I know a guy who has it (works at a hedge fund) but feel a little silly asking him what his company pays for it. Anybody know?
nhallmark
Quote:
02-26-2007 12:44 PM
Originally Posted by savar (Post 3393146) Does anybody here have a Bloomberg Anywhere (BBA) account? I've been looking all over the web for for more information but BBA is amazingly undocumented. I know a guy who has it (works at a hedge fund) but feel a little silly asking him what his company pays for it. Anybody know?
Ive heard its around $1700 a month. Reuters is comparable and its supposed to be $750 a month. I havent used either of the services, so I dont have any details beyond that.
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Music_Producer
Quote:
02-26-2007 02:26 PM
Originally Posted by savar (Post 3393146) Does anybody here have a Bloomberg Anywhere (BBA) account? I've been looking all over the web for for more information but BBA is amazingly undocumented. I know a guy who has it (works at a hedge fund) but feel a little silly asking him what his company pays for it. Anybody know?
Like Nathan said.. its $1700 a month but its not as easy as just signing up for it online or over the phone. Apparently they send someone over to see if you are capable of paying that much in the long run.. how much you trade.. etc. They require an upfront deposit of $5000 or something of that sort.. and a minimum 1 year contract that cannot be cancelled. The terminal also has some sort of ngerprint identication software.. so only you can use it. You might want to check out reuters.. their news should be on par with bloomberg.
nhallmark
02-27-2007 03:41 AM
PiP Dictator, that intraday system seems to be working out good. I made 12 pips yesterday and Ive already made 18 pips today...and Ive only been awake for 2 hours :) I missed the signal on the main system for GBP/JPY on sunday night(which would have made me 200 pips already), but Ill make sure Im awake next time. Im trading on a demo account until I make consistent prots...I'll keep you guys updated on my progress :cool:
Music_Producer
02-27-2007 04:31 AM
Nathan, are you talking about that vanessafx system? I glanced through it once but found it a little confusing.. what's the time period on those charts? 4 hours or 30 mins? :confused:
nhallmark
Quote:
02-27-2007 04:45 AM
Originally Posted by Music_Producer (Post 3395406) Nathan, are you talking about that vanessafx system? I glanced through it once but found it a little confusing.. what's the time period on those charts? 4 hours or 30 mins? :confused:
Both time periods, actually. It says it in the PDF. What I did, though is put the same indicators(except for the awesome oscillator) on the 5 minute chart on oanda. Then I use the 30 minute charts on MT4 to conrm. The support/resistance helps a lot though. I was looking at the chart yesterday and I would have had 4 losses in a row...but because of the support/resistance lines, I stayed out until it broke one...which allowed me to avoid those losses. US Durable Goods in 45 minutes...
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Edit: yeah, its the vanessaFX system. Its the second one in the PDF.
~Shard~
02-27-2007 05:35 AM
Just traded the US data and made 10 pips! My timing was actually very good on this one, usually I get in too late or out too late! :o ;) So I'm pretty happy about that - a good trade for my last trade for a while. I'm off to Vegas for a week and a half (to partake in other forms of gambling :p ;)) so no more trading for me for a while. Good luck to you all though and I'll see ya when I get back... :cool:
Music_Producer
02-27-2007 05:37 AM
16 pips on the Durable Goods Orders report.. both came out extremely negative.. was a very easy trade. :) I want to trade the Existing home sales but there's consumer condence also coming out at the same time.. I'll probably pass. If you guys are trading.. watch out for any possible conicts.. if both come out negative, then it will be an easy trade of course. (I think both will come out -ve)
Music_Producer
Quote:
02-27-2007 05:38 AM
Originally Posted by ~Shard~ (Post 3395509) Just traded the US data and made 10 pips! My timing was actually very good on this one, usually I get in too late or out too late! :o ;) So I'm pretty happy about that - a good trade for my last trade for a while. I'm off to Vegas for a week and a half (to partake in other forms of gambling :p ;)) so no more trading for me for a while. Good luck to you all though and I'll see ya when I get back... :cool:
Hey, have fun in vegas shard! Me and the wife *might* go there for a weekend.. if we do, let's meet up! Don't blow all your forex winnings on those darn coin machines.. technicals don't work there :D :p
~Shard~
Quote:
02-27-2007 05:45 AM
Originally Posted by Music_Producer (Post 3395514) Hey, have fun in vegas shard! Me and the wife *might* go there for a weekend.. if we do, let's meet up! Don't blow all your forex winnings on those darn coin machines.. technicals don't work there :D :p
Thanks Music_Producer - I think something will be seriously wrong if I don't have fun in Vegas... ;) As for gambling, I'll be sticking to the poker tables - I know what I'm doing and you're playing against other people, not the House odds, which is denitely the way to go.
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I'll be there until March 8th. Were you thinking of going this weekend? ;) Meeting up would denitely be cool... :)
nhallmark
02-27-2007 05:51 AM
I made 10 pips. CMC requoted me on closing my order again or I would have made more. Im up 28 pips for the day though, so Im happy :D Have fun in vegas, Shard...and dont lose your money...or rather make some so youll be ready to camp out at the apple store if they do release leapord in a few weeks :p
~Shard~
Quote:
02-27-2007 05:52 AM
Originally Posted by nhallmark (Post 3395537) Have fun in vegas, Shard...and dont lose your money...or rather make some so youll be ready to camp out at the apple store if they do release leapord in a few weeks :p
Sounds good, will do! ;)
savar
Quote:
02-27-2007 12:08 PM
Originally Posted by Music_Producer (Post 3393538) Like Nathan said.. its $1700 a month but its not as easy as just signing up for it online or over the phone. Apparently they send someone over to see if you are capable of paying that much in the long run.. how much you trade.. etc. They require an upfront deposit of $5000 or something of that sort.. and a minimum 1 year contract that cannot be cancelled. The terminal also has some sort of ngerprint identication software.. so only you can use it. You might want to check out reuters.. their news should be on par with bloomberg.
I wasn't talking about the terminal -- BBA is like having VPN for Bloomberg. It looks just like a Bloomberg terminal except you access it from any PC through a web browser. It's got to be less than the cost of the full terminal, right?
nhallmark
Im not sure, savar. they have contact #'s here.... http://about.bloomberg.com/contact/ofces/index.html
02-27-2007 12:20 PM
You could call and ask...although, Im not sure if theyre the type to keep you on the phone all day when you just want the price :p
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Hope that helps, Nathan
nhallmark
PiP Dictator, Im still interested in that scalping system if youre still willing to share it.
02-27-2007 02:40 PM
That vanessaFX system kicks ass. Im looking at it on the charts and had I been trading it, I would be up 1200 pips in the last two weeks alone :eek: So, a comet would have to blow up the earth for me to miss the next signal on that :p Thanks for sharing this, PiP Dictator. P.S. Did you guys trade US Consumer Condence? I just watched it but it looked like a good 20-30 pip move.
macman56
Signal Software Hey, does anyone know a good signal software for a Mac?
02-27-2007 05:49 PM
Music_Producer
03-01-2007 01:36 AM
24 pips on the UK manufacturing PMI report. Was an easy trade as well.. as for signal service.. please don't waste your money on any signal providers out there. If that's the only way you want to do forex.. you might as well just throw your money away right now. There's tons of information in these threads.. technical and news related.. see what works for you.
nhallmark
03-01-2007 01:44 AM
made 14 pips. now that Im getting fast enough on my entries, ive got to work on my exits so I can get out before the retrace. Anyway, Im happy :D
nhallmark
03-01-2007 01:52 AM
Hey, Music_Producer, I know this is off topic but Im thinking about getting a keyboard setup soon. Im deciding between the korg triton "studio" or "extreme", a yamaha motif, or a roland x8. Ill probably get one as a keyboard and the others in rack units, but whats your opinion about any of those?
Music_Producer
03-01-2007 02:20 AM
Hey nathan, good job :) How's your technical system coming along? I tried it on my oanda demo and i saw a buying opportunity.. and bought gbp/usd.. and the bloody thing went in a loss of -32 pips almost within 5 minutes.. lol. So I think my luck with technicals can pretty much bring any system to its knees! :p I love the Yamaha motif.. excellent sounds. All those modules have great sounds.. but somehow, in a mix.. the motif just 'ts' better. I'm myself busy on a vintage synth hunt.. not too old.. but stuff from the 80s. Roland
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jd-800, yamaha dx-7, e-mu synths, etc. Miss those sounds :)
nhallmark
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03-01-2007 03:35 AM
Originally Posted by Music_Producer (Post 3402449) Hey nathan, good job :) How's your technical system coming along? I tried it on my oanda demo and i saw a buying opportunity.. and bought gbp/usd.. and the bloody thing went in a loss of -32 pips almost within 5 minutes.. lol. So I think my luck with technicals can pretty much bring any system to its knees! :p
lol...yeah, I lost 8 pips yesterday because I got scared and closed to soon. Then, it turned around and went in my direction by 60 pips :p I should have followed the system and held on until it hit my stop loss..which it never did. So, lesson learned. I made 10 pips today on it, though. So, with the news, Im up 24 pips for the day. About your "experience" with technicals...Im reading this book called "the winning investment habits of warren buffet and george soros" and its pretty much saying "hey, these two guys have almost opposite strategies, but their both successful, so nd what works for you". My point being that maybe news is just your thing. I actually like news trading more because my stomach isnt in knots when I have to go to the store and I have a trade open :p But, Im new to forex trading in general, so Im trying to gure out what suits me best. I think the only way I'll be able to not have a heart attack with technicals is by having two accounts. One for news, and another with a smaller amount just for technicals and if I really make money at it, Ill keep going and if I lose that whole account, Ill just treat it like gambling and I lost...but it was a small amount so it doesnt matter.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Music_Producer (Post 3402449) I love the Yamaha motif.. excellent sounds. All those modules have great sounds.. but somehow, in a mix.. the motif just 'ts' better. I'm myself busy on a vintage synth hunt.. not too old.. but stuff from the 80s. Roland jd-800, yamaha dx-7, e-mu synths, etc. Miss those sounds :)
Yeah, from playing the motif at guiter center, it has the most usable sounds IMO. Ive also looked at some vintage stuff, but I dont know whats good and whats not. What do you do for drum sounds? Right now, Im using "Reason Adapted" that came free with my mbox, but I bought a rell at guitar center and it only works on the full version of reason. So, Ive got a 5000 sample CD sitting here that I cant use :mad: So, I guess what Im asking is, for drums, do you get sample CDs or buy drum modules(e.g. alesis DM 5) or do you use keyboards? ...or something else. Im trying to go for NIN/Bjork type drum sounds with a little timbaland thrown in...just for the drums.
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Music_Producer
03-01-2007 03:51 AM
I only use samples for drums.. I have never used drum machines.. never liked them really. Drums (and bass) are very important to any song's foundation.. so I like to have thousands of kicks, snares, hats, etc at my disposal. Thats only possible with a software sampler and a drum sample library. Doesn't reason adapted come with ReDrum? You should be able to use those samples from the rell with that (if it comes with redrum) I use Reason as a basic sequencer/scratch pad for ideas, or basic song structures. Once I get a rough mix done.. I open up digital performer and use reason for the drums.. mach ve for other samples and my other hardware synths. I haven't been dabbling in music much these days.. always use 'I need to buy new gear!' as an excuse to make music :p :D Also, make your own drum samples. Thats what I did when i rst started looking at samplers. For instance.. if I loved the kick on Robert Miles' 'Children' track.. I would search for a part in the song where the kick would be fairly isolated.. and sample that :p Sounded fantastic.. and when I was an amateur it really put that 'wow' factor into my little cheap demos!
Music_Producer
03-01-2007 05:49 AM
Got the dreaded re-quote again.. but the move wasn't that big.. would have probably bagged only 6-7 pips. Weird.. ISM next.
nhallmark
03-01-2007 07:46 AM
I didnt trade ISM. The construction spending # caught me off gaurd...I missed at least 20 pips :mad: Oh well, Im sure Ill live to trade another day. Reason adapted does coem with redrum but I spent hours moving the rell le to different folders trying to get it to work and there was nothing in the manual and I nally found in the license agreement that "reason adapted for digidesign is limited to the reason factory soundbank only". ...so Ill upgrade when I get some money.
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I haven't been dabbling in music much these days.. always use 'I need to buy new gear!' as an excuse to make music
lol, yeah, I use that excuse a lot too. My goal is to move to LA by july though, so I can really start doing something with it because dallas is dead.
nhallmark
03-01-2007 04:33 PM
Made 9 pips on AUD retail sales :) I was lucky enough to get out at the top...I think it only moved about 10 pips.
Music_Producer
03-01-2007 04:58 PM
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Originally Posted by nhallmark (Post 3404714) Made 9 pips on AUD retail sales :) I was lucky enough to get out at the top...I think it only moved about 10 pips.
Me too, grabbed 9 pips. The move was muted because of the current account which came out worse than expected.. so it kind of cancelled out the better than forecast retail sales report. Edit : Tomorrow I'm only trading the canadian gdp report.. hopefully it should be a nice report because there are no other reports coming out at the same time. I want a 50+ pip move :)
nhallmark
03-01-2007 05:18 PM
How much does CAD GDP have to deviate by for you to trade it? Im asking because Ive watched several CAD reports and Ive stopped lately because they rarely move. So, for example, its supposed to be 0.3%. If it came out to 0.4%, I normally wouldnt trade that because the deviation is barely there. What's your experience with that?
Music_Producer
03-02-2007 03:56 AM
I would look for a +0.3-0.3% deviation.. a +0.1% wouldn't do much.. but then again there are no other reports at that time.. so who knows. It could have more impact. Here's hoping for a solid deviation (5% lol)
nhallmark
03-02-2007 04:14 AM
Hopefully it will deviate that much and we can end the week good, since thats the only trade today. I made 45 pips on GBP/JPY with that vanessaFX system. I closed when it hit a support line, then took a 20 mintue break. When I came back, it had dropped another 65 pips. I made enough though, so Im happy. GBP/JPY is insane. Its dropped 900 pips this week alone. Edit: Now its dropped another 50 pips, so thats 1000 pips this week :eek:

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nhallmark
...didnt trade. It only moved 10-15 pips anyway. Edit: I just added it up and I made 97 pips this week :D
03-02-2007 05:32 AM
Music_Producer
Didn't trade either.. just a 0.1% deviation.
03-02-2007 05:58 AM
All JPY pairs are screwed for now because of what the IMF chief warned about.. the carry trades.. .basically putting fear in all the carry traders. You could have made those 1000 pips had you checked the news .. I made 500 on an AUD/JPY short.. but unfortunately, it was a small lot. Had I put in my normal sized lot.. sheesh I'd be off to Fiji right now :p Will jpy pairs come back? Yeah, but it might take a while.. it certainly doesn't help jpy pairs if all the nancial bigwigs keep warning about the carry trade 24/7. If the BOJ chief says something like there is a risk of deation and that interest rates will not be raised or might be reduced.. geez.. look at all jpy pairs to shoot up 2000 pips.
nhallmark
03-02-2007 06:10 AM
What did the IMF guy say? I remember hearing about it but I didnt pay attention because a lot of times the fed guy or whoever will say something and nothing happens. Ive watched during speeches and he will say something and there goes GBP/USD down 50 pips and I dont really get the signicance of it until afterwards...Ive still got a lot to learn.
Music_Producer
03-02-2007 01:59 PM
Nathan, he basically warned about the risks of the carry trade.. about the yen appreciating in value.. thats all. Speeches move markets like crazy.. I didn't think the jpy pairs would drop so much based on the IMF guy's speech.
lagunacat justinf77
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03-02-2007 04:47 PM 03-02-2007 11:58 PM
For those of you using the VanessaFX system, can I ask where you found a broker that offers charting with the Awesome Oscillator that is also haven't been able to nd any, so any info Is that the PDF download? If that is the one, itMac-compatible? confused the hellI out of me. I think there was too much Originally Posted byindicator, nhallmark (Post 3397084) suggestions would be much appreciated. left out for a newbie to grasp. Which one have you been using, 30 minute? 4 hour? [b] That vanessaFX system kicks ass. Im looking at it on the charts and had I been trading it, I would I don't an Intel so I can't Parallels... Thanks in advance! behave up 1200 pipsMac, in the last two run weeks alone :eek:
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nhallmark
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03-03-2007 01:18 AM
Originally Posted by Music_Producer (Post 3407690) Nathan, he basically warned about the risks of the carry trade.. about the yen appreciating in value.. thats all. Speeches move markets like crazy.. I didn't think the jpy pairs would drop so much based on the IMF guy's speech.
I guess I need to start really watching the speeches and watch what happens so I can analyze why the market reacts to what I would think is a trivial comment. After japan hiked rates and the JPY pairs went up, I thought we would be back to 241 on GBP/JPY this week, but were sitting around 227...guess I was wrong. Thats cool though that the vanessaFX system gave the signal to short at the start of the week, but there was a news reason also(and there usually is, its just hard to nd, sometimes). That gives me more condence in a trade having more reasons than one to take it.
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Originally Posted by lagunacat (Post 3408201) Is that the PDF download? If that is the one, it confused the hell out of me. I think there was too much info left out for a newbie to grasp. Which one have you been using, 30 minute? 4 hour?
yeah, its the PDF download. The one I was using this week was the 30 minute, but the one that gave the signal for the 1000 pip drop this week was the 4 hour/daily. But, like Music_Producer said, the news had a lot to do with it. If youre confused by it, the forums on forexfactory have a lot of information on to understand all of it...but use your judgement because there's a lot of stuff out there thats bs.
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Originally Posted by justinf77 (Post 3408969) For those of you using the VanessaFX system, can I ask where you found a broker that offers charting with the Awesome Oscillator indicator, that is also Mac-compatible? I haven't been able to nd any, so any suggestions would be much appreciated. I don't have an Intel Mac, so I can't run Parallels... Thanks in advance!
Ive been using MetaTrader 4. Its a free download from their site, but yeah, it only runs on windows. I dont have an intel mac either(yet!) but luckily, Ive got a dell that I had before I knew about macs so I use that. It sucks, but Im willing to deal with windows for money :p You could look into crossover for mac. I dont know how stable that is because its still in beta, but it allows
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you to run windows apps without windows. The only other option is to wait and hopefully more people will buy macs and then developers will start to get on board and well see some trading platforms for mac...but thats probably going to be awhile.
nhallmark
03-04-2007 05:13 PM
damn..GBP/JPY dropped another 400 pips on opening. I found a report on bloomberg that was summarizing what they said at G7 and what the IMF head said. Ive also heard that its Japan's scal year end, so all the companies have to convert their foreign prots back to yen...which means purchasing yen...so thats another reason why its falling. Are you guys trading UK Services PMI in the morning(3:30am central)?
Music_Producer
03-04-2007 05:44 PM
Yup nathan.. trading the uk pmi report for sure. Right now jpy pairs seem to have stabilized.. again this is because of pending reports from the treasury nance minister (meeting the japanese nance minister) So the markets will move on the comments that come out of this report. The meeting is today and tomorrow.. if they say something like jpy is still undervalued.. you could see all jpy pairs drop 3-500 pips more. The annoying this is that these are not really news reports.. but comments.. so they don't come out instantly on news platforms.. the markets move before these things come out.
savar
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03-04-2007 06:40 PM
Originally Posted by nhallmark (Post 3412841) damn..GBP/JPY dropped another 400 pips on opening. I found a report on bloomberg that was summarizing what they said at G7 and what the IMF head said. Ive also heard that its Japan's scal year end, so all the companies have to convert their foreign prots back to yen...which means purchasing yen...so thats another reason why its falling. Are you guys trading UK Services PMI in the morning(3:30am central)?
I like that pair -- it's been moving very decisively this year. That's interesting that the scal year end makes companies convert their currency. Is that true of most economies? I suppose you could arbitrage protably by purchasing at the right time. Edit: Down 500+ now!
nhallmark
03-05-2007 01:56 AM
didnt trade. Ive never traded this report before, so I watched it to see what it would do...looks like it moved about 25 pips. Did you guys trade it?
Music_Producer
03-05-2007 04:15 AM
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Yup nathan, got 11 pips on it.. exited a little early as the gbp was on a up trend before the news came out. Next is US ISM
nhallmark
03-05-2007 08:17 AM
I lost 4 pips on ISM(3 of it was the spread). I got in late and got right back out...it was kind of a delayed reaction though because 5 minutes later it went up 30 pips...oh well
nhallmark
Music_Producer, when you trade aussie reports, do you trade AUD/USD or AUD/JPY? I was looking at the trade balance yesterday and it seems like AUD/JPY moves more.
03-06-2007 12:52 AM
Music_Producer
03-06-2007 01:28 AM
Nathan, i trade the aud/usd when trading aussie trades. Aud/jpy obviously moved more because it had taken quite a beating (was pushed down all the way to 88.85 or so) So a correction was in order after days of AUD selling. In fact, all jpy pairs fought back today. So it was just a result of that (and a positive aud number) AUD/USD moves pretty well when the deviation is good. Again, this is because most aussie trades i've traded are on sundays.. when the us markets are closed.. so there is relatively no resistance to the aussie dollar during those times. During uk reports. i've seen gbp/usd go up but gbp/jpy go down (positive uk number) so be careful if you're trading jpy pairs
nhallmark
03-06-2007 04:51 PM
I made 16 pips on AUD GDP, but Im down $200 for the day because I was trading GBP/JPY and I was up $100 and I closed my position but it didnt close, so I pressed it again and it still didnt close. So I restarted the software and I had two sell positions open now, so I try to close those...same thing. I nally got it closed but Im still in a $0.17 trade with CMC which is weird because I didnt trade any off amounts and I cant gure out how to close it. Im pissed. :mad:
Music_Producer
I made 20 pips on the aud/usd trade..
03-06-2007 05:28 PM
Nathan, sometimes I get that problem.. i have to click on either buy or sell (whatever it is to close the open trade) more than 3-4 times. I look at the spot fx/open trades column to see what prot i have made.. and then when i hit sell.. i can tell if its gone through or not by looking at the quantity left. Don't ever restart the software (unless windows freezes.. in which case i have to restart the damn pc) for e.g. if i see 100,000 in my open trades column.. thats 100,000 bought.. so i click sell.. nothing happens.. i
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still see that 100,000 there.. i click sell again.. till it goes away. Then i get the re-quote windows.. :rolleyes: cmc seriously need to revamp their platform. Were you trading gbp/jpy on technicals? If so, then use oanda.. they have perfect execution.. the spread is not raised during non-news time.
nhallmark
03-07-2007 04:45 AM
yeah, thats what happened. I had the trade open, looking at the "spot/forward fx positions" column and I click sell...nothing happens. I think "ok, I guess Im getting a requote" about two minutes goes by, so I click again..same thing. Thats when I thought, OK, before I click again, Im going to close the software and restart it to see if those went through. So I did, and when I logged back in I was in two sell positions and my long position was still open. So, I bought which closed one sell position and then I had one buy and one sell open, so technically I was at, but my p/l kept going up/down and I was somehow in a 17 cent trade. After I posted, I called the dealing desk and he said they were in the middle of rollover for the day and it would be xed tomorrow when I log in. Then, I wake up and my internet is out because I forgot to pay the bill :p ( Ive got an ADD problem :p ). So I called them and got it back on and when I logged in to CMC they had closed the 17 cent trade and refunded me the spread from clicking all those times which was about $85. That was nice of them. So, needless to say, it was a long day. I woke up at 1am yesterday and stayed up until 8pm, so I was probably just tired and thats why I kept clicking. ahh...weve got ADP in 30 minutes so hopefully today will be a better day. (Im writing it off as a "**** happens" day) Edit: I guess macrumors edits out profanity? Oh well, you know what I meant...
Music_Producer
03-07-2007 05:02 AM
Ahh.. I never wait for the re-quote.. because that takes its own sweet time. If my position is still open, i just click again and again (not rapidly.. but every second) till one order goes through. That was nice that they gave you $85.. now only if they could that for every re-quote they display to us :D I was looking at the calendar and for friday.. there's non farm employment and trade balance.. both coming out at the same time, so don't trade that.. or trade a small lot if you feel adventurous.
Music_Producer
03-07-2007 05:20 AM
9 pips on the adp report.. this one almost always whipsaws .. I had 15 pips .. but had to click on 'sell' like 5-6 times (I must look funny doing that.. shouting 'i said sell damn it.. *mixed with various profanities*) Are you trading nzd interest rate statement? Its expected to be hiked to 7.5% so i won't be trading that.. probably won't even be awake for that trade. But be ready just in case they do something unexpected like hike it to 7.75% or drop it to 7%
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nhallmark
made 2 whole pips on ADP..lol.
03-07-2007 05:22 AM
yeah, Ill be watching NFP this time. I lost money last time and like youve warned about over and over, its not worth trading it and losing all your prots for the week. If nothing conicts(revisions and trade balance) with the actual #, I might jump in with a small lot, but we know how often that happens. :p
nhallmark
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03-07-2007 05:24 AM
Originally Posted by Music_Producer (Post 3420433) Are you trading nzd interest rate statement? Its expected to be hiked to 7.5% so i won't be trading that.. probably won't even be awake for that trade. But be ready just in case they do something unexpected like hike it to 7.75% or drop it to 7%
I was planning on doing exactly that...trade if they cut rates or hike 50bps instead of 25bps...otherwise, Ill just watch.
trinka
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03-07-2007 06:15 AM
Originally Posted by Music_Producer (Post 2448494) Just curious to see if there are any members here to dabble in the Forex markets.. :) How much of a loss/prot have you made?
I've traded with notec.com - they have low costs, especially margin requirements and 200:1 leverage. First, I opened a mini account, for $200 and won $5K, I'm still earning here and there - but then it might be just the beginner's luck
trinka
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03-07-2007 06:21 AM
Hi, I've traded at notec.com - they have low costs in general, 0.5% margin requirements and 200:1 leverage. First, I've opened a mini account for $200 and within few minutes earned $5K. Of course I've had my losses too, but I still nd it protable to trade once in a while.
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nhallmark
03-07-2007 12:05 PM
the NZD rate decision was crazy...it was a no trade but I was watching to see what would happen and NZD/USD is all over the place. I think its bipolar :p It was only moving up and down 10-15 pips but Ive never seen it happen so fast like that. Edit: I think its decided to go down for the time being.
~Shard~
Just wanted to say "hi" guys and let you know that I'm back from Vegas. :)
03-07-2007 12:50 PM
Luckily just before my ight last Tuesday I was able to check the markets upon open and see the debacle that happened overnight in China. I proceeded to short the NASDAQ and DJIA100 indices at 10:1, grabbed 50 pips on the USDJPY pair and essentially paid for my entire vacation that morning! :D Not meaning to brag, but man that's a nice feeling. :o :) I hope trading has been going good for everyone this past week. I'll be watching the interest rate decisions tomorrow morning (any thoughts?) and will hopefully familiarize myself with where everything is at (and more importantly where it is going) in the next couple of days so that I'll be back in the swing of things next week. Looking forward to interacting with you all again. :cool:
Music_Producer
03-07-2007 07:11 PM
Hey Shard, welcome back! :) These trips are even more fun when they're all paid for :D :p Did you make a few 'pips' playing poker as well? :D Tomorrow..I'll be looking at the gbp interest rate decision very closely.. they throw in surprises all the time, so if they raise.. gbp/usd should go up 80+ pips for sure. Eur interest rate.. i think they always stick to whatever is forecast i.e. they are going to raise it to 3.75.. so i'll be ready to trade.. but most likely no surprises there. I might trade the usd/cad on the canadian housing starts with a very small lot, as i have never traded that before. Just want to see what kind of action that has on the markets.
~Shard~
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03-07-2007 08:37 PM
Originally Posted by Music_Producer (Post 3422959) Hey Shard, welcome back! :) These trips are even more fun when they're all paid for Did you make a few 'pips' playing poker as well? :D
Thanks Music_Producer - as nice as it is to travel and see other places, get out of a routine and so forth, there is always something to be said for coming back to a home and some familiarity. ;) :) As for poker, yes, I made quite a few pips actually, so I was happy with that. Of course, since I'm not a pro, I was only trading with small lots.. ;) :D
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Originally Posted by Music_Producer (Post 3422959) Tomorrow..I'll be looking at the gbp interest rate decision very closely.. they throw in surprises all the time, so if they raise.. gbp/usd should go up 80+ pips for sure.
Yeah, I'll be watching that one for sure. If they hold rates I suppose the currency won't move much... Or does a sentiment currently exist that they should raise rates due to certain economic conditions? If so, perhaps (even though no hike is expected) a non-hike would be seen as negative?
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Originally Posted by Music_Producer (Post 3422959) Eur interest rate.. i think they always stick to whatever is forecast i.e. they are going to raise it to 3.75.. so i'll be ready to trade.. but most likely no surprises there.
Yeah, even though a hike is expected, I think it will still be seen as a plus for the currency, so I'll be ready to BUY and see if I can make a couple pips. If they don't hike though, look out! :eek: ;)
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Originally Posted by Music_Producer (Post 3422959) I might trade the usd/cad on the canadian housing starts with a very small lot, as i have never traded that before. Just want to see what kind of action that has on the markets.
I can catch that one just before I leave for work, so I'll watch it at as well. My thing with Canadian announcements is that they usually coincide with US news, and since the USDCAD is the best pair to trade for Canadian data, it may not react as it should if the US data released at the same time is conicting. Nonetheless, if there's a trade, I'll try to take advantage of it. :)
Music_Producer
03-08-2007 04:03 AM
15 pips on a gbp/usd short.. rates remained the same. I shorted because I noticed gbp/usd rising before the rate decision (about 10-15 pip gradual rise) so I gured that if rates stayed the same.. the gbp/usd would drop a little. Since this was an interest rate trade, I traded with maximum leverage.. I'm a happy man right now :D
Music_Producer
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03-08-2007 04:05 AM
Originally Posted by ~Shard~ (Post 3423253) Yeah, even though a hike is expected, I think it will still be seen as a plus for the currency, so I'll be ready to BUY and see if I can make a couple pips. If they don't hike though, look out! :eek: ;)
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Not necessarily shard.. be careful with the eur interest trade announcement. I mean, you may be right.. the eur *could* go up if they do raise rates.. but the markets are expecting that.. so watch out.. could go down Of course, if they don't hike at all.. then short the eur/usd
~Shard~
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03-08-2007 04:09 AM
Originally Posted by Music_Producer (Post 3423814) 15 pips on a gbp/usd short.. rates remained the same. I shorted because I noticed gbp/usd rising before the rate decision (about 10-15 pip gradual rise) so I gured that if rates stayed the same.. the gbp/usd would drop a little.
Nice one Music_Producer! :) Unfortunately no trade for me on the BoE announcement. The news was as expected and although I saw an initial blip down, it recovered right away and I didn't feel comfortable with trading after that point. (I guess I need to regain some of my speed after being away for a week! :p ;)) Obviously the GBPUSD did go down afterwards, but I didn't want to trade on speculation, rather trade on news, and the moment had passed at that time. Good catch on the pre-decision rise, I'll keep that sort of behavior in mind in the future. :cool:
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Originally Posted by Music_Producer (Post 3423817) Not necessarily shard.. be careful with the eur interest trade announcement. I mean, you may be right.. the eur *could* go up if they do raise rates.. but the markets are expecting that.. so watch out.. could go down Of course, if they don't hike at all.. then short the eur/usd
Yep, understood. :) Just thinking out loud more than anything... ;) Good luck with that trade as well!
~Shard~
03-08-2007 04:11 AM
Oh, and Music_Producer, were you aware of this site? Looks like it has a live feed of the ECB press conference...
Music_Producer
03-08-2007 04:14 AM
Haha.. go back to bed shard.. everytime I come home from a trip (whether its a weekend trip or a 2 month long break) I am always in 'vacation mode' for at least a couple of days and need that time to acclimatize! Imagine if I had to work a 9-5 job.. sheesh, I'd be red :p Btw, good job in not chasing the trade.. I always get tempted to fade the spike or do some stupid things.. so lately as soon as I close my positions and make my prot, I just shut the computer down.. that's the only way to resist risky trades!
Music_Producer
03-08-2007 04:19 AM
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Originally Posted by ~Shard~ (Post 3423825) Oh, and Music_Producer, were you aware of this site? Looks like it has a live feed of the ECB press conference...
Nope, never knew about it.. that's great though.. for trading the speech after the rate decision. That moves eur/usd by 20-40 pips (sometimes more) depending on what he says. Hopefully that live feed does not suffer from any delays
nhallmark
I didn't trade either. It's good to have you back, Shard.
03-08-2007 04:22 AM
I made 50 pips on the move up on GBP/JPY this morning(just trading with pennies). Im still learning what Im doing but hopefully it will be consistent.
nhallmark
03-08-2007 05:45 AM
just made 7 pips on USD/CHF with that vanessafx system. Im realizing, like PiP Dictator says, that its not a matter of technicals OR fundamentals...its both, equally. It helps a lot in avoiding losses by only taking trades when both line up. Im really liking this :)
~Shard~
03-08-2007 02:00 PM
I'm glad that system is working for you nhallmark. Now that I am back from vacation I believe I will give it a try myself (just via paper trading for starters of course) once I re-familiaarize myself with where everything is at and what's happened over the past week. After looking at it, it actually is similar to the systems I use in the equities world and was trying to "port over" to forex. If these end up working (in general) I'll just stick with them instead. And, of course, as we all know, you need to pay attention to everything and not blindly rely on technicals. ;) I'm rst and foremost a fundamental/news trader when it comes to forex. :) :cool:
nhallmark
Yeah, Shard, before you jump in be sure to pay attention to price action.
03-08-2007 03:23 PM
Im not sure if it says much about it in the ebook, but for example, earlier today the SAR and the AO(on the 30 minute system) on USD/CHF gave a short signal but a pin bar had just formed, peircing through a support line and then closing above it. So, I thought according to the pin bar it was going to reverse and go up, but the indicators just gave a short signal...sure enough it reversed and went up. Had I just looked at the indicators, it would have been a losing trade. So, Im just saying that paying attention to price action helps a lot ;)
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nhallmark
Hey, are you guys trading the CAD employment change in the morning? Ive never traded it, but FF has it marked red. Im assuming its like canada's NFP?
03-08-2007 03:56 PM
Music_Producer
Quote:
03-09-2007 12:20 AM
Originally Posted by nhallmark (Post 3425730) Yeah, Shard, before you jump in be sure to pay attention to price action. Im not sure if it says much about it in the ebook, but for example, earlier today the SAR and the AO(on the 30 minute system) on USD/CHF gave a short signal but a pin bar had just formed, peircing through a support line and then closing above it.
You lost me at the 'pin bar had formed.. piercing through..' :p Canadian employment change is very important for the CAD.. so denitely trade that. The trades I'm looking for today are - gbp industrial production and the cad employment change. Then comes the nasty nfp.. i think i am going to trade that (just for kicks) with only 10,000 units.. so if I do make a loss it won't be catastrophic. Too many conicting reports.. nonfarm employment change, overall unemployment report, trade balance.

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Music_Producer
03-09-2007 01:34 AM
10 pips on the UK industrial production report - came out at 0.1% but i think the -0.2% manufacturing production report made the pound move down a bit. No big deviations overall.. so move was limited.. but good enough for a solid prot. Next up, canadian employment (2 and 1/2 hours away.. what do i do till then?!) :)
nhallmark
1 Attachment(s)
03-09-2007 01:50 AM
I didnt trade...didnt think the deviation was big enough and by the time I caught all the other #'s it was too late. Oh well, hopefully canada will pull through and let me make some money today. Music_Producer, I attached a pdf explaining pin bars. Its pretty simple.
Music_Producer
03-09-2007 04:04 AM
Thanks for that le nathan.. I was laughing at the illustration that showed the 'eyes' and the 'nose' :) 8 pips on the canadian report.. stupid conict caused by unemployment rate.. came out at 6.1% so it subdued the move caused by a good 14+k employment change report. Next up, nfp.. for kicks :p
nhallmark
03-09-2007 04:06 AM
I didnt trade...again. I told myself I was only going to trade if it was more than 20k in either direction, so I stayed out. I thought the unemployment rate was good...6.1% v 6.2%E...isnt that better?
Music_Producer
03-09-2007 04:12 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nhallmark (Post 3427002) I didnt trade...again. I told myself I was only going to trade if it was more than 20k in either direction, so I stayed out. I thought the unemployment rate was good...6.1% v 6.2%E...isnt that better?
Oops.. you're right.. 6.1 is better than 6.2.. thank goodness for the weekend so i can rest my poor brain :eek:
nhallmark
Quote:
03-09-2007 04:13 AM
Originally Posted by Music_Producer (Post 3426997) Thanks for that le nathan.. I was laughing at the illustration that showed the 'eyes' and the 'nose' :)
yeah, its kind of stupid. I use candles instead of bars because I hate the way bars look. I think a pin bar is pretty much the same thing as a hammer or a shooting star in candles.(more stupid names :p )
Music_Producer
03-09-2007 04:16 AM
Ahh.. gured out why the move wasn't that great... well apart from the deviation which was good but not spectacular - forgot to check the pre-news canadian $ trend.. usd/cad had already fallen 40 pips since this morning.. so it didn't have much room to fall further. I was expecting a 20-30 pip fall but I can see why that didn't happen. Nathan, how's the keyboard search coming along? And more importantly, how are you going to record all these synths with just an mbox?!
nhallmark
Well, Im looking at the new 003 which looks like the replacement for the 002.
03-09-2007 04:50 AM
Theyre running a promotion through june where you can upgrade from your previous hardware for $1700 or something where buying it without the upgrade is supposedly $2900. I was just looking at it this morning actually. Im dying to upgrade to 7.3...Im still running 6.4 right now. But, yeah, Im thinking its going to be another month or two before I do that. Im also thinking about getting that antares rack thing that cher used on "do you believe". Everyone's using that effect these days but Im thinking I could play with it and come up with something new.
nhallmark
I stayed out..could have gotten a few pips but decided to play it safe.
03-09-2007 05:33 AM
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Music_Producer
03-09-2007 05:36 AM
I got a re-quote :rolleyes: That was a huge drop.. initially 15-20 .. and then another 20 pips.
Music_Producer
Quote:
03-09-2007 05:39 AM
Originally Posted by nhallmark (Post 3427057) Well, Im looking at the new 003 which looks like the replacement for the 002. Theyre running a promotion through june where you can upgrade from your previous hardware for $1700 or something where buying it without the upgrade is supposedly $2900. I was just looking at it this morning actually. Im dying to upgrade to 7.3...Im still running 6.4 right now. But, yeah, Im thinking its going to be another month or two before I do that. Im also thinking about getting that antares rack thing that cher used on "do you believe". Everyone's using that effect these days but Im thinking I could play with it and come up with something new.
We just got a great deal on the 002 racks in fact (002 rack for $1020 and 002 rack factory bundle for $1200).. the 003 is nothing but a revamped design.. that's all. Don't waste your money on the 003 (mixer) get the rack instead and get a dedicated 24 channel control surface.. will work out cheaper. And where in the world are you getting those prices from? :eek: 003 is $2200 (I get them lower than that though) Don't be paying retail prices for gear! :)
nhallmark
03-09-2007 05:53 AM
How do you not pay retail? I understand getting gear from ebay and whatnot but I would rather pay more to get it new. I got those prices from the digidesign website. My main reason for wanting the 003 instead of the 002 is just the way it looks. The 002 always reminded me of a ford taurus(dont know why :p ) I also had the assumption that the 003 allowed you to record in HD without buying HD. Maybe Im wrong. As far as keyboards, Im probably going to get the roland x8 because I need the drum sounds out of it and I like the way it looks. Then Ill get the motif and the triton in rack units and use the x8 as a controller...I think.
Music_Producer
Quote:
03-09-2007 05:57 AM
Originally Posted by nhallmark (Post 3427155) How do you not pay retail? I understand getting gear from ebay and whatnot but I would rather pay more to get it new.
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I got those prices from the digidesign website. My main reason for wanting the 003 instead of the 002 is just the way it looks. The 002 always reminded me of a ford taurus(dont know why :p ) I also had the assumption that the 003 allowed you to record in HD without buying HD. Maybe Im wrong. As far as keyboards, Im probably going to get the roland x8 because I need the drum sounds out of it and I like the way it looks. Then Ill get the motif and the triton in rack units and use the x8 as a controller...I think.
I purchase audio gear in bulk for studios.. so I know quite a few folks in the music retail business.. no I don't buy anything from ebay. As far as 003 allowing to record in HD.. you wish :p ProTools HD software will only work with HD interfaces. I use an Apogee Ensemble with a 002 rack (needed when i absolutely have to use pro tools) and Digital Performer. I'm waiting for a 8 core mac pro.. :D
nhallmark
03-09-2007 05:58 AM
Oh yeah..one more question...I was under the impression that you could only use digidesign hardware with protools so how do you use a third party mixer? The only way I can do it on my mbox is to take the output on the mixer and put it on an input on the mbox. So, my mixer has 8 channels but it only records to one track in pro tools. Is there another way to do it?
~Shard~
03-09-2007 06:02 AM
Slept in, missed the trades. Yeah I know, I'm a horrible forex-er, I have no excuses... :p ;) :D Looks like it was a wild ride regardless, so perhaps it was best that I did miss out this time... :o ;)
nhallmark
03-09-2007 06:07 AM
Well, Shard, I guess your just living up to your avatar...sleep in, dont contribute to the forum topic but then tell us about how we forgot a comma and we spelled "thier" wrong. Thats a REAL Mr. Bastard :p (only joking)
~Shard~ Music_Producer
Quote: Quote:
03-09-2007 06:10 AM 03-09-2007 06:23 AM
Haha, you got Posted it! I am the MacRumors Bastard so I have to live up to my title you know... ;) :D It's all good Originally by nhallmark (Post 3427195) fun, yes... ;) Well, Shard, I guess your just living up to your avatar...sleep in, dont contribute to the forum topic Originally Posted by nhallmark (Post 3427174) but yeah..one then tell us about how we forgot a comma we spelled wrong. Thats a REAL Mr. Oh more question...I was under the and impression that "thier" you could only use digidesign Bastard :pwith protools so how do you use a third party mixer? hardware P.S. You used the wrong "your". You also missed a comma in "dont" and again in "Thats" in your last sentence. :p :cool: (only joking) The only way I can do it on my mbox is to take the output on the mixer and put it on an input on the
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mbox. So, my mixer has 8 channels but it only records to one track in pro tools. Is there another way to do it?
By a mixer I meant a control surface.. such as the mackie Control Universal (with 8 faders) So with that you can move the faders in pro tools up and down.. using the hardware faders of the mackie. The way you use the mixer with the mbox is the only way to incorporate a mixer in any pro tools setup. When you get a 003 rack, you'll get 8 inputs. so you can plug in your keyboards in there (4 pairs) .. and use the mackie control surface for everything such as fader control, recording, playback, etc. Tascam made a pretty good surface (24 faders) and it was cheap too.. don't know why they dropped it. Shard, I'm a bit like you too.. my wife gets annoyed when I tend to correct people (and her) :p We've got a good week ahead as well.. lots of trades possible. Couple that with your vanessa fx trading and nathan, you probably will be able to buy your entire studio in a few days ;) :D
nhallmark
Quote:
03-09-2007 06:29 AM
Originally Posted by ~Shard~ (Post 3427204) Haha, you got it! I am the MacRumors Bastard so I have to live up to my title you know... ;) :D It's all good fun, yes... ;) P.S. You used the wrong "your". You also missed a comma in "dont" and again in "Thats" in your last sentence. :p :cool:
Damn it...I thought I did everything right, except I spelled "their" wrong on purpose. Thanks for the laugh :p
Quote:
Originally Posted by Music_Producer (Post 3427170) I purchase audio gear in bulk for studios.. so I know quite a few folks in the music retail business.. no I don't buy anything from ebay. As far as 003 allowing to record in HD.. you wish :p ProTools HD software will only work with HD interfaces. I use an Apogee Ensemble with a 002 rack (needed when i absolutely have to use pro tools) and Digital Performer. I'm waiting for a 8 core mac pro.. :D
Maybe its just marketing, but here's what the digidesign site says... "003 Factory provides powerful hands-on control of Pro Tools through its integrated control surface and offers a wide range of audio and MIDI I/O, high-denition audio resolution, the creativity and speed of
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industry-standard Pro Tools LE software, high-speed FireWire connectivity, and over 80 professional instrument and effects plug-ins, compatible applications, sound libraries, and services, including the new Pro Tools Ignition Pack 2 Pro and premium Factory software bundles." Im not saying I dont believe you, in fact your probably right, but thats where I got the assumption about HD from. I googled the apogee ensemble and I am sooo confused :confused: I thought the 002 was an audio interface so why do you need two? And if the apogee is higher resolution(which it seems to be), isnt that like listening to a $2 million production through a cell phone speaker? Everything I know about recording is all from the internet which is why my mixes suck...so forgive me if I sound completely crazy. Edit: We were posting at the same time, so I just read your last post...and Im still confused. Do you know of a website that explains all this stuff. I mean, I dont even know why 96khz or 192khz matters...er, I know why it matters but I dont hear it. Ive got a lot to learn. On my last song, every track is peaking the whole time and I know thats bad but I cant nd anywhere online that will teach me what to do about it.
~Shard~
Quote:
03-09-2007 06:39 AM
Originally Posted by Music_Producer (Post 3427222) Shard, I'm a bit like you too.. my wife gets annoyed when I tend to correct people (and her) :p
Yeah, I am a perfectionist in some ways, but I mostly just do it for fun in situations like this. ;) It's just that on Forums there is so much bad grammar, spelling, etc., it's tough to resist the urge! ;) :D
Quote:
Originally Posted by nhallmark (Post 3427233) Damn it...I thought I did everything right, except I spelled "their" wrong on purpose. Thanks for the laugh :p
Haha, no worries, just having fun with ya... ;) :)
Music_Producer
03-09-2007 07:08 AM
Nathan, when digi mentions high denition audio.. its not really their HD range of units.. it just means.. er.. high denition.. as in.. sample rates more than 48.1 khz (upto 96 khz i believe) Their HD models go upto 192 khz.. and ProTools HD has more than 32 tracks of audio.. they go up to 256 tracks depending on what conguration you buy. With pro tools le.. you're stuck with 32 tracks (which is not bad.. but for my kind of music its hopeless.. my sound effects alone take up 32 tracks!)
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Apogee has the best convertors in the industry. When you record any sound into pro tools.. you're basically converting that analog sound into digital.. so the computer can 'read' that. The quality of that sound depends on the quality of the A/D (analog to digital) convertors So I connect the apogee to the 002 rack via optical cable.. no analog connections. Basically, the apogee handles all the a/d conversion.. and then that digital stream passes from the apogee to the 002 rack, to the computer. This is only when I'm using pro tools (hence i *have* to use a digidesign interface like the 002 rack) If I'm not using pro tools.. i bypass the 002 rack.. I just use the apogee. And don't worry about the quality of your recordings.. you'll get better with time. When I started.. there was no internet! I didn't even have any books.. nothing. I just used to compare my mixes to professional ones and gure out what I needed to do. You should not let your levels on all tracks jump to peak (not all the time) Use a compressor plug-in.. to maximize the sound without making it go over the peak. That's the beauty of analog tape.. is that you can make levels go higher and analog has a lot of headroom.. so it sounds 'fatter' With digital the minute you go over the '0' level.. it sounds harsh.. like static. Always play your mixes through your car stereo.. if it sounds good in there, it will mostly sound good everywhere else. I used to nd myself adding a lot of bass to every song.. would sound good on the headphones.. but when I'd play them in the car.. my speakers would fart with all that bass.. lol.
Music_Producer
Quote:
03-09-2007 07:12 AM
Originally Posted by nhallmark (Post 3427233) Ive got a lot to learn. On my last song, every track is peaking the whole time and I know thats bad but I cant nd anywhere online that will teach me what to do about it.
Pull your faders down if the levels are jumping like crazy.. and look at your master fader's levels.. are they pushing past peak? A common mentality when recording is 'Oooh i like that kick drum, let me push it up higher.. so it stands out' The minute you do that, you think 'oh wait ..now the bass doesnt stand out much.. let me make that higher.. ahhh.. those vocals are cool.. let me push them a bit'.. and before you know it.. you've basically pushed up all the levels of every track. Instead of doing that, just push the master faders up! And tweak every track a *little* to satisfy yourself. I always add a compressor plugin on the master track to get it LOUD.. without distorting. Play with the settings.. half the time I don't know what I'm doing but if I can hear a change.. then i keep those settings.
nhallmark
03-09-2007 08:01 AM
OK, I'll try messing around with it. I use compressors on everything and generally the track isnt peaking until after I put a compressor on it. Im thinking thats because I like to put the attack all the up, the release all the way down, and play with the ratio until it sounds good. That makes it stick out more, but it peaks every time I do that. My other problem is that I can drag a fader down to -inf and even though its silent the meter in pro tools still
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peaks so Im not sure how to x that. I tried unchecking the "link record and play faders" but that didn't seem to do anything. Its funny how we start talking about all this stuff and I get all excited. I try to learn pin bars, b lines, etc and its like "who cares"...until you tell me that Ill get to buy more gear and then all of a sudden I love b lines :p Anyway, this is embarrasing but this what Im talking about with my mixing skills(or lack thereof)... www.myspace.com/getposh One of my friends knows a DJ at the rock station here in dallas and he said he would play my song if I could get him a clean recording, so I guess it sounds worse than I thought. Anyway, thats my rst song that Ive ever fully completed so dont laugh. I could go on and on about whats wrong with it, but I'll stop distracting from the thread topic before Mr. Bastard comes after me :p
Music_Producer
03-10-2007 01:39 AM
That's a great track.. catchy riffs, smart stuff.. but you totally messed up the mix :p Too many delays.. vocals not punchy enough.. washed in reverb etc. Haha, you should have heard my rst few songs.. they were totally whacked. Always start with the source of the recording i.e your instruments. Make sure you're recording at a good level.. play the instrument where you think you have to play it the hardest (so the sound is the loudest) and see those levels. Once you adjust the gain, etc.. then it becomes relatively easier to manage. It's always easier to reduce a good strength signal than try to pump up a weak signal. Use effects sparingly.. just enough to get your desired sound but not so much that it overpowers the mix. For vocals.. I could go on to make it punchier.. try using distortion effects.
nhallmark
wow...Im an idiot :o
03-10-2007 07:47 AM
I went and played with one of my other songs...I turned down the gain on the compressor and brought down the attack and release so theyre not completely maxed out. Then I turned down the gain on some of the effects and, as if by magic...no more peaking but its still punchy. I feel so retarded right now. I spent an entire year on that song you heard from start to nish and I never gured it out. Thanks man. Ive still got some other stuff to gure out re effects, but damn, that cleaned it up so much. On that song, though, it sounds so thrown together because I had a goal to have 1 song completely done by 1/1/07 so I just threw up what I had. The vocals in the rst verse have that effect on them(izotope trash) and the second verse sounds dry because Ive never had vocal lessons and those were the best takes I had and the effect on the rst verse sounded stupid on the second verse so I left it dry. I could go on and on...but yeah, thanks, Im making progress at least.
~Shard~
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03-10-2007 11:26 AM
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Glad to see this thread can serve other needs as well - I'm glad we all share such common interests! As I mentioned earlier in the thread my friend and I used to create tracks all the time, mostly electronica using tracking programs and the like. We haven't done anything for a out a year since he moved a way a while ago (that makes it harder ;)) but he's planning on moving back here next year so hopefully we're be able to get back into it. In the meantime, my buddy has been commissioned to do a movie score for a local independent lm and also did all the mastering and mixing on a CD for a local group made up of a few of our friends. Most recently he was approached by EastWest after they heard some of our tracks and wanted him to be a beta tester for their next software releases. :cool: Now that I think of it, our/his mixes aren't posted anywhere on the Net that I know of, otherwise I'd send you guys links. If either of you have FTP servers I could upload some tracks to you if you're interested, or perhaps use one of those free storage sites to post some tracks. As for myself, I don't do any composing anymore (no time) but I still perform with the Symphony Orchestra here (I play clarinet) which is fun. We actually have a performance tonight which I'm quite looking forward to - nothing beats some good Shostakovich... :cool:
nhallmark
03-10-2007 11:59 AM
Who do have for your email, Shard? Im using gmail and they have enough storage to let me upload and attach tracks in an email, so check whoever you use and see if they have enough storage...then email them. Or, you could make a myspace music account and upload the songs, then well download them and you can delete the account after that. ...just some ideas.
nhallmark
03-10-2007 03:39 PM
damn it...I just realized that daylight savings time is tomorrow. I just got on my new sleep schedule of waking up at 1am and going to sleep at 3pm and now Ive got to do it 1 hour earlier. ...hopefully it wont affect my trading.
nhallmark
03-11-2007 04:23 AM
OK, another question, and Ive traded this before but I dont remember...is the GBP Claimant Count Change on wednesday the # of new jobs or the # of people ling for unemployment? ...or something else? Edit: I forgot to add that I emailed PiP Dictator the other day and he said he got in a car wreck, but he'll be back soon.
~Shard~
Quote:
03-11-2007 08:43 AM
Originally Posted by nhallmark (Post 3432228) OK, another question, and Ive traded this before but I dont remember...is the GBP Claimant Count Change on wednesday the # of new jobs or the # of people ling for unemployment?
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...or something else? Edit: I forgot to add that I emailed PiP Dictator the other day and he said he got in a car wreck, but he'll be back soon.
Sorry to hear about PIP Dictator, I wish him a speedy recovery... :cool: As for the UK Claimant Count Charge, it measures the change in the number of people claiming unemployment related benets over the previous month. A falling trend has a positive effect on the nation's currency because working people tend to spend more (and consumer spending is obviously a major driver of the economy.)
nhallmark
Oh, thanks Shard. I guess I could have clicked on FF and read that...just didn't think of it.
03-11-2007 09:32 AM
~Shard~
Quote:
03-11-2007 10:35 AM
Originally Posted by nhallmark (Post 3432620) Oh, thanks Shard. I guess I could have clicked on FF and read that...just didn't think of it.
No worries, it was an easy reply for me to make as a result! ;) :D
nhallmark
03-12-2007 01:41 AM
OK, guys what time do you have? I am so confused. I thought UK PPI was at 3:30am(central)? I read about DST the other day and it said macs will automatically update if youve installed the latest software through software update...and cell phones will update because they check the time from the nearest tower. So right now my phone, mac, and pc say its 3:37am. I went to trade and the TTN guy was announcing swiss CPI. So I googled "what time is it" and this site said its 1:28 in LA and 2:28 in houston...but were 2 hours ahead of LA. This is so frustrating. The only thing I can think of is that, since congress passed this law, its only an american thing...which would mean UK PPI is coming out at the same time, but its at 4:30am...or its already happened and I missed it. any thoughts?
Music_Producer
Quote:
03-12-2007 01:42 AM
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Originally Posted by nhallmark (Post 3431152) damn it...I just realized that daylight savings time is tomorrow. I just got on my new sleep schedule of waking up at 1am and going to sleep at 3pm and now Ive got to do it 1 hour earlier. ...hopefully it wont affect my trading.
I switched my clocks to the correct time today.. and here I am.. waiting for the gbp ppi news .. nothing happened at 1.30 am pst.. lol.. it's at 2.30 am pst. I hate all these time changes :p Glad nothing happened to pip dictator (sounds strange addressing someone by their nick.. 'pip dictator got in a crash') Hope he's back soon! Shard always likes to give textbook denitions :p :D
Music_Producer
Lol nathan, you're confused too! The ppi report is an hour from now (well 45 mins from now)
03-12-2007 01:44 AM
Check out the forexfactory.com website and make sure the time they display is synchronized to your local time. Click on the time link at forexfactory.com.
~Shard~
Just woke up, ready to trade - glad it was at the right time! ;) :D
03-12-2007 02:19 AM
nhallmark
03-12-2007 02:33 AM
made 6 pips on UK PPI...should have waited, it went up more. I traded with a small lot because Ive seen PPI deviate a lot but not move before so I wasnt sure...oh well, its still 6 pips
Music_Producer
03-12-2007 02:35 AM
9 pips on the gbp/usd trade.. got out early though, spiked up higher as soon as I exited. Also up today is nzd retail sales (later during the day)
Music_Producer
Quote:
03-12-2007 02:36 AM
Originally Posted by nhallmark (Post 3434650) made 6 pips on UK PPI...should have waited, it went up more. I traded with a small lot because Ive seen PPI deviate a lot but not move before so I wasnt sure...oh well, its still 6 pips
Yeah, cpi makes the currency deviate more than ppi.. but nevertheless.. ppi will get you some pips :)
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Music_Producer
What is the response time in your platform nathan, shard?
03-12-2007 02:38 AM
I get it ranging from 320ms to 4560 ms at times.. which is why I could be getting so many re-quotes. Do you use a direct ethernet connection or wireless? I'm wondering if I should plug in the cable directly into my pc.. theoretically that should make the response times faster..

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~Shard~
10 pips on the UK data - pretty good start for the week! (1.9392-1.9402) Glad to see you guys grabbed some pips as well. :cool:
03-12-2007 02:39 AM
~Shard~
Quote:
03-12-2007 02:43 AM
Originally Posted by Music_Producer (Post 3434662) What is the response time in your platform nathan, shard? I get it ranging from 320ms to 4560 ms at times.. which is why I could be getting so many re-quotes. Do you use a direct ethernet connection or wireless? I'm wondering if I should plug in the cable directly into my pc.. theoretically that should make the response times faster..
My PC is going through a router acting in bridge mode and then through a gateway (all wired) and whenever there is normal activity is always have a response time of 100ms. When news comes out, like during this morning's announcement, it usually jumps to about 250-300ms. I have only seen it higher when I have other activity on my network. I never thought of connecting it directly, but I don't seem to suffer having it hooked up the way it is. That being said, every millisecond counts of course! ;)
Music_Producer
03-12-2007 02:47 PM
15 pips on the nzd/usd trade.. although the deviation was quite small.. a good move considering there wasn't much action going on with the other currencies at this time of day.
nhallmark
03-12-2007 02:58 PM
yes!...for once I made more than you..lol I got 24 pips on nzd retail sales...of course you were probably trading a bigger lot, so you still made more :rolleyes: Edit: If I can keep this up, I'll buy you and Shard an iphone for teaching me how to trade :D
Music_Producer
Quote:
03-12-2007 03:57 PM
Originally Posted by nhallmark (Post 3436362) yes!...for once I made more than you..lol I got 24 pips on nzd retail sales...of course you were probably trading a bigger lot, so you still made more :rolleyes:
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Edit: If I can keep this up, I'll buy you and Shard an iphone for teaching me how to trade :D
Haha, that's because I get out way too fast.. which is bad.. but good at the same time. With my lots.. yeah, I'm happy with 5 pips a day :p An iphone.. hmm.. no actually, make that the new 8 core mac pro :eek: :D Edit : 3 trades tomorrow.. uk trade balance, german zew sentiment and us retail sales
OceanView
Hello Forex Traders
03-12-2007 04:04 PM
I am new here. Logged on to MacRumors to get info on buying my rst MBP but stumbled on this thread by accident. Glad that I did. I think its great that you guys are teaching others to make money trading the news. I too am interested in trading and want to learn as soon as possible. I am on page 9 of this thread and I am trying to read as fast as possible to catch up to where everyone is. Just wanted to say hi and thanks. Keep on posting.
nhallmark
Quote:
03-12-2007 04:13 PM
Originally Posted by Music_Producer (Post 3436539) An iphone.. hmm.. no actually, make that the new 8 core mac pro :eek: :D
ok...but thats gonna take awhile...thats more than my entire account balance at the moment. :o we'll see how it goes though...
nhallmark
Quote:
03-12-2007 04:15 PM
Originally Posted by OceanView (Post 3436555) I am new here. Logged on to MacRumors to get info on buying my rst MBP but stumbled on this thread by accident. Glad that I did. I think its great that you guys are teaching others to make money trading the news. I too am interested in trading and want to learn as soon as possible. I am on page 9 of this thread and I am trying to read as fast as possible to catch up to where everyone is.
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Just wanted to say hi and thanks. Keep on posting.
Hi OceanView, yeah just keep reading and practice. Once you understand how the different reports move the prices, then its just a matter of how fast you can click :D
OceanView
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03-12-2007 04:27 PM
Originally Posted by nhallmark (Post 3436587) Hi OceanView, yeah just keep reading and practice. Once you understand how the different reports move the prices, then its just a matter of how fast you can click :D
Thank you. I did open a demo account at OandA and will be practicing at the critical news announcement times. Guess that means I have to wake up really early or stay up really late. I am in So Cal (PST). So far it seems like everyone is making money here. Is that the case or maybe I haven't gotten to the parts that some of you have actually lost money. Just wondering.
Music_Producer
Quote:
03-12-2007 04:55 PM
Originally Posted by OceanView (Post 3436640) Thank you. I did open a demo account at OandA and will be practicing at the critical news announcement times. Guess that means I have to wake up really early or stay up really late. I am in So Cal (PST). So far it seems like everyone is making money here. Is that the case or maybe I haven't gotten to the parts that some of you have actually lost money. Just wondering.
Hey Oceanview.. welcome to the thread. 99 trades are wins.. 1 will be a loss. The losses are usually due to either 1. Platform issues - such as a delayed trade, or a re-quote and then accidentally hitting the wrong button (buy/sell) Things happen so fast that its easy to make a mistake when you rst start.. but with practice that is limited. Other things like a software freeze (its windows.. what do you expect?!) can affect trading as well. 2. Conicting reports - If there are two important reports coming out at the same time, and they conict.. you could have an initial upward spike.. and then a downward one.. so its best to stay out of such trades. It's very easy to make up for a loss though. Cardinal rules to avoid losses:
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1. If your broker gives you a re-quote when you place a trade.. let it go. Don't chase a trade, it will always lead to a loss. There's always another report that you can trade another day. 2. Don't set a goal i.e. 'I have to make 20 pips everyday' Be happy with whatever prot you make.. eventually, as you start trading big lots.. and 1 pip = $100.. you could be making $500 per trade with 5 pips movement. 3. Don't be frustrated or pissed if you make a losing trade. Don't try to 'revenge trade' and recover your losses by entering into foolish trades.. it's very tempting to see a currency fall by 100 pips and assume that it should recover and rebound.. it can still fall by another 200 pips.. and your account will be wiped out if you don't exit your position. It's happened to me before.. i.e revenge trading. I made a loss of $70 once and got real mad.. 'How could i make a loss?' kind of thing. It wasn't my fault.. it was the platform. Anyway, I proceeded to carry out a few 'revenge trades' .. when I saw the currency go up.. I would 'sell at the peak' thinking it was going down.. but it went up instead. I exited.. with a loss.. and then my total loss was $150. More anger.. so i traded again.. loss again.. $200.. until I nally stopped with a $500 net loss. After that, I put 3 stickers on my desk that state in bold fonts "No revenge trading!" , "No emotional trading!" and more importantly.. "Let it go!" lol.. trade sensibly and you'll be successful :)
nhallmark
03-12-2007 04:58 PM
yeah, Ive lost money a few times and I think Music_Producer has had one loss, but once you get it down its smooth sailing for the most part...As you read further into the thread you'll see that none of us are using oanda anymore because they started raising their spreads 10-20 pips during news...its a good platform to learn on though Edit: Music_Producer got it..I was posting at the same time, but yeah, what he said ;)
~Shard~
You know, nhallmark, I'm going to hold you to that. :p ;) :D
03-12-2007 05:01 PM
Yeah, I know what you mean about getting out too soon Music_Producer - it really comes down to your trading strategy. Technically, if you're trading the news, you should trade the spike, get in and out and your trade should last a matter of seconds - that's trading the news. If you hold onto a trade any longer, you're essentially deviating from your initial plan and you're not trading the news anymore. Not that it matters, and of course it can pay off if there's a trend, but just thought I'd say that for what it's worth... :o ;)
~Shard~
03-12-2007 05:08 PM
Oh, and welcome OceanView. Any questions, just ask. Music_Producer pretty much outlined the basics perfectly for you, so denitely follow his advice. One of the hardest things to do with trading is to stick to your plan. It requires a lot of discipline. You have to remove all emotion from trading, and trust me, that's even harder than you'd think. Keep reading and post when you can! Good luck with your practice Oanda account as well. :cool:
OceanView
Quote:
03-12-2007 05:18 PM
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1/15/08 8:28 PM
Originally Posted by Music_Producer (Post 3436743) Hey Oceanview.. welcome to the thread. 99 trades are wins.. 1 will be a loss. The losses are usually due to either 1. Platform issues - such as a delayed trade, or a re-quote and then accidentally hitting the wrong button (buy/sell) Things happen so fast that its easy to make a mistake when you rst start.. but with practice that is limited. Other things like a software freeze (its windows.. what do you expect?!) can affect trading as well. 2. Conicting reports - If there are two important reports coming out at the same time, and they conict.. you could have an initial upward spike.. and then a downward one.. so its best to stay out of such trades. It's very easy to make up for a loss though. Cardinal rules to avoid losses: 1. If your broker gives you a re-quote when you place a trade.. let it go. Don't chase a trade, it will always lead to a loss. There's always another report that you can trade another day. 2. Don't set a goal i.e. 'I have to make 20 pips everyday' Be happy with whatever prot you make.. eventually, as you start trading big lots.. and 1 pip = $100.. you could be making $500 per trade with 5 pips movement. 3. Don't be frustrated or pissed if you make a losing trade. Don't try to 'revenge trade' and recover your losses by entering into foolish trades.. it's very tempting to see a currency fall by 100 pips and assume that it should recover and rebound.. it can still fall by another 200 pips.. and your account will be wiped out if you don't exit your position. It's happened to me before.. i.e revenge trading. I made a loss of $70 once and got real mad.. 'How could i make a loss?' kind of thing. It wasn't my fault.. it was the platform. Anyway, I proceeded to carry out a few 'revenge trades' .. when I saw the currency go up.. I would 'sell at the peak' thinking it was going down.. but it went up instead. I exited.. with a loss.. and then my total loss was $150. More anger.. so i traded again.. loss again.. $200.. until I nally stopped with a $500 net loss. After that, I put 3 stickers on my desk that state in bold fonts "No revenge trading!" , "No emotional trading!" and more importantly.. "Let it go!" lol.. trade sensibly and you'll be successful :)
Thanks for those tips! I am sure that took many months (years) of experience to learn those. I will write these down. Also, I would be happy to just get 60-70% win versus loss averages let alone 99% win percentage. Once again thanks and I hope to be trading along side of you and everyone else on this thread.
OceanView
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03-12-2007 05:20 PM
Originally Posted by nhallmark (Post 3436753) yeah, Ive lost money a few times and I think Music_Producer has had one loss, but once you get it down its smooth sailing for the most part...As you read further into the thread you'll see that none of us are using oanda anymore because they started raising their spreads 10-20 pips during news...its a good platform to learn on though
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Edit: Music_Producer got it..I was posting at the same time, but yeah, what he said ;)
I didn't realize everyone stopped using OandA, what is the new company that you use to trade? Also, do they have a game/demo account? Thanks
OceanView
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03-12-2007 05:21 PM
Originally Posted by ~Shard~ (Post 3436796) Oh, and welcome OceanView. Any questions, just ask. Music_Producer pretty much outlined the basics perfectly for you, so denitely follow his advice. One of the hardest things to do with trading is to stick to you plan. It requires a lot of discipline. You have to remove all emotion from trading, and trust me, that's even harder than you'd think. Keep reading and post when you can! Good luck with your practice Oanda account as well. :cool:
Thanks Shard for the warm welcome!
~Shard~
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03-12-2007 05:30 PM
Originally Posted by OceanView (Post 3436827) I didn't realize everyone stopped using OandA, what is the new company that you use to trade? Also, do they have a game/demo account?
I use CMC Markets. They have a 14-day free trial but to use their actual trading platform you ned to open an account with at least $2000 and also be an accredited investor (at least up in here in Canada...)
Quote:
Originally Posted by OceanView (Post 3436829) Thanks Shard for the warm welcome!
My pleasure, the more the merrier! :cool:
OceanView
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03-12-2007 09:57 PM
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Originally Posted by ~Shard~ (Post 3436848) I use CMC Markets. They have a 14-day free trial but to use their actual trading platform you ned to open an account with at least $2000 and also be an accredited investor (at least up in here in Canada...)
Oh, I will have to look into that. Which News reporting agencies are you using?
nhallmark
Hi OceanView, We're using tradethenews...their site is www.tradethenews.com And Im not sure about having to be an accredited investor...they let me open an account with 2 months experience, but yeah, there is a minimum deposit of $2k.
03-13-2007 02:09 AM
Oh, and with tradethenews, the text is $50 a month and the audio/text is $180 a month...its better to get the audio...its about 1-2 seconds faster, and that makes all the difference in the results, IMHO. Hope that helps, Nathan
Music_Producer
03-13-2007 02:32 AM
16 pips on the UK trade balance report. Trade balance came out at -6.2 billion pounds.. which is more positive than the -7 billion pounds expected. Don't tell me you beat me at this trade too nathan :p :D
nhallmark
no we tied :p I made 16 pips too...thats 46 pips already this week :D
03-13-2007 02:34 AM
Music_Producer
Quote:
03-13-2007 02:37 AM
Originally Posted by nhallmark (Post 3438026) no we tied :p I made 16 pips too...thats 46 pips already this week :D
Good.. I see that mac pro coming to me already.. *drool* ahhh..come to daddy :D
nhallmark
03-13-2007 02:39 AM
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Ro
nhallmark
I didnt trade on german ZEW, it barely moved...so far.
03-13-2007 03:02 AM
Music_Producer
03-13-2007 03:02 AM
8 pips on eur/usd on the zew sentiment.. it went up higher after I closed my positions. Again, I had to click on 'sell' to close my position.. multiple times. :mad:
OceanView
Just wondering how many people here are doing this as full time basis?
03-13-2007 05:06 AM
Music_Producer
Quote:
03-13-2007 05:33 AM
Originally Posted by OceanView (Post 3438248) Just wondering how many people here are doing this as full time basis?
I am.. after trading on a demo account for quite a bit.. and then moving on to a real account with small lots. Now I trade bigger lots.. so I can do this full time. 10 pips on gbp/usd.. on the us retail sales report.. came out lower than expected (why am i not surprised :rolleyes: )
Music_Producer
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03-13-2007 05:35 AM
Originally Posted by ~Shard~ (Post 3436767) Technically, if you're trading the news, you should trade the spike, get in and out and your trade should last a matter of seconds - that's trading the news. If you hold onto a trade any longer, you're essentially deviating from your initial plan and you're not trading the news anymore. Not that it matters, and of course it can pay off if there's a trend, but just thought I'd say that for what it's worth... :o ;)
Absolutely. Hold on to a trade longer than a few seconds, and it could very well go against you in a matter of milliseconds. It's best to mentally prepare yourself for a 'I made 6 pips prot on one trade" rather than 'I could have made 20 pips if i had held on'.. as that often becomes 'I held on a little longer and i lost 30 pips'
nhallmark
03-13-2007 05:36 AM
I made a whole pip! ...that was kind of a delayed reaction. I got scared and closed too early.
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OceanView, Im doing this full time but only because Im in a position where I dont have to work right now...Im not paying my bills from it(yet!)
Music_Producer
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03-13-2007 05:42 AM
Originally Posted by nhallmark (Post 3438312) I made a whole pip! ...that was kind of a delayed reaction. I got scared and closed too early. OceanView, Im doing this full time but only because Im in a position where I dont have to work right now...Im not paying my bills from it(yet!)
Yeah, that happens to me at times (NFP time :p ) I get even more anxious when I've had 2 good trades.. and then there's a 3rd one. All sorts of thoughts cross my mind 'what if i lose my previous prots on one stupid trade' etc. Lately though, I've been more concerned with my stupid windows machine. It shuts off randomly at times.. I think it gets too hot. So i usually turn it on 10 minutes before a trade is going to occur.
OceanView
03-13-2007 05:45 AM
Glad to hear people are doing this full time. I want to as well as my industry is dying and I need to nd my next cheese. I made 15 pips on todays retail sales numbers on my demo account.:) But my lot size was too small. Initially I started it at 10 (rst trade mistake) :mad:
Music_Producer
03-13-2007 05:48 AM
Originally Posted by nhallmark (Post 3438312) I made a whole pip! ...that was kind of a delayed reaction. I got scared and closed too early. OceanView, Im doing this full time but only because Im in a position where I dont have to work right now...Im not paying my bills from it(yet!)
This is nhallmark's rst bill he has to pay (from me), lol: Attachment 70113 Jokes aside.. nathan.. why don't you start trading with a bigger lot? I think you've traded enough to step it up a bit. You don't have to double your lot size.. maybe increase it 10-15% more or so.. instead of a 100% increase. That makes it easier to get used to trading larger numbers.
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nhallmark
03-13-2007 06:06 AM
Well, I haven't been wanting to tell you guys this, but a few weeks ago I had a signal on the vanessafx system as well as 5 other systems and the news according to bloombergs site..all telling me to take this trade on gbp/jpy. So, I had already stepped up my lot size some on news trading but with this trade I got greedy and went all in with $10 a pip on my account of $3k and I lost $600 :o Ive heard over and over again, "dont trade gbp/jpy unless you can afford a 100 pip stop loss" and of course I didnt listen. So, when it went down 60 pips I got scared and closed...then, of course it turned around and went 300 pips in my direction. ...should have followed the system. Actually that was my second mistake, the rst was trading that much money with what little I had. So, Ive learned my lesson and Im just watching and I refuse to trade that pair at all until I know what Im doing. The good news is that Ive made it all back except for $50 from news trading over the past two weeks. Ive taken a few vanessafx trades with $1 a pip, today I made 13 pips on USD/CHF doing that, but the only reason Im going that far is because that pair is a lot safer and I understand it...Ive made about 4-5 trades on that pair over the past 2 weeks and they have all been protable. But, yeah, I have stepped up my lot size for news trading only, because I have proven to myself that I can be consistently protable with that. Anyway, thats the story...its so cliche. Everyone seems to have that same story more or less. The important thing is that I learned my lesson and I wont do it again. Nathan
~Shard~
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03-13-2007 01:50 PM
Originally Posted by nhallmark (Post 3437991) And Im not sure about having to be an accredited investor...they let me open an account with 2 months experience, but yeah, there is a minimum deposit of $2k.
Okay, then the rules are denitely different in the US versus Canada. Here, to use such a platform you have to be an accredited investor which means you need to meet one of the following criteria: - be registered under the securities legislation within Canada as an adviser or dealer - have a net income before taxes which has exceeded $200,000 in each of the last two years - alone or combined with a spouse, own nancial assets with an aggregate value before taxes (net of any liabilities) exceeding $1,000,000 - alone or combined with a spouse, have net assets of at least $5,000,000
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So yeah, not just anyone can do it. ;) :cool:

Quote:
Originally Posted by nhallmark (Post 3437991) Oh, and with tradethenews, the text is $50 a month and the audio/text is $180 a month...its better to get the audio...its about 1-2 seconds faster, and that makes all the difference in the results, IMHO.
Yeah, I noticed a big difference during my free trial between the text and audio. The audio is much better, but at this point in time (and since I don't do this full time) I can't justify paying $180/mo for the audio. If I start trading more often or trade bigger lots like Music_Producer then maybe I can justify it, but right now, my monthly expense for it would equate to a decent percentage of my prots... ;)
Quote:
Originally Posted by nhallmark (Post 3438385) Well, I haven't been wanting to tell you guys this, but a few weeks ago I had a signal on the vanessafx system as well as 5 other systems and the news according to bloombergs site..all telling me to take this trade on gbp/jpy. So, I had already stepped up my lot size some on news trading but with this trade I got greedy and went all in with $10 a pip on my account of $3k and I lost $600 :o Ive heard over and over again, "dont trade gbp/jpy unless you can afford a 100 pip stop loss" and of course I didnt listen. So, when it went down 60 pips I got scared and closed...then, of course it turned around and went 300 pips in my direction. ...should have followed the system. Actually that was my second mistake, the rst was trading that much money with what little I had. So, Ive learned my lesson and Im just watching and I refuse to trade that pair at all until I know what Im doing. The good news is that Ive made it all back except for $50 from news trading over the past two weeks. Ive taken a few vanessafx trades with $1 a pip, today I made 13 pips on USD/CHF doing that, but the only reason Im going that far is because that pair is a lot safer and I understand it...Ive made about 4-5 trades on that pair over the past 2 weeks and they have all been protable. But, yeah, I have stepped up my lot size for news trading only, because I have proven to myself that I can be consistently protable with that. Anyway, thats the story...its so cliche. Everyone seems to have that same story more or less. The important thing is that I learned my lesson and I wont do it again.
Sorry to hear that nhallmark, but as you say, you've learned your lesson and in the grand scheme of things, a $600 loss is nothing (well, okay on a $3K account it is I guess, but still... :o ;)) I've lost thousands before in the markets. Your analysis is right though, in terms of sticking to the plan and knowing what you're getting into, so I don't even need to make any comments since I'd be preaching to the choir. ;) The only thing I'll say
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is yes, that GBPJPY pair is extremely volatile - I don't even watch it as a result... As I always say, "nothing is a waste of time/money if you use the experience wisely". Don't worry, you'll make back your money sooner than you think. :cool:
OceanView
Music Producer or anyone else:
03-13-2007 08:42 PM
I don't know if this has already been discussed but have you tried using straddle to trade the news or is this just too fast to set up a straddle? Just wondering.
~Shard~
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03-13-2007 08:50 PM
Originally Posted by OceanView (Post 3441364) Music Producer or anyone else: I don't know if this has already been discussed but have you tried using straddle to trade the news or is this just too fast to set up a straddle? Just wondering.
Dangerous and not worth it in my opinion. The price can move so fast your order might not even ll, or a blip could ll it as it spikes the other way. If you're trading the news, trade the news, i.e. trade the facts. Starddling is not trading the facts. If you want to straddle, that is ne of course, but you aren't really trading the news in that way, so you might as well just take a position in the currency before the move and pray that you're right after the release. Of course, there's no logic to that, so you might as well just put $100 on red at the roulette table... ;) My thoughts at least. Everyone has their different styles though, so I am by no means trying to be judgmental or overcritical. :cool:
Music_Producer
03-13-2007 09:14 PM
If you are straddling then you might as well give all your money to me.. because that's what the brokers are going to do. Your stops are going to be hit before you know it. Brokers love straddlers.. they make the most money out of them. There are only 2 ways to trade - technicals and news trading. I prefer news trading, because it works for me. I can't deal with setting stop losses.. and then seeing those stops being hit. I would rather have regular, 5 pips a day.. then 300 pips one day and then a 400 pip loss the next day, and so on.. too much of a rollercoaster. Technical trading gives me heartburn, news trading does not (because i'm used to it now) Like nathan mentioned.. all the signs were in place for gbp/jpy to go the direction he intended it should.. but it didn't. Nathan, you got lucky that you only lost $600.. and not more. Just one statement from any Bank of japan executive could have pushed it down 300 pips and you wouldn't even have had time to react. I could setup my own trading system.. buy or sell at any given point and employ a 500 pip stop loss.
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Eventually, the trade will go your way.. but is that any way to trade? No.. any setup where there are huge stop losses is basically a risky setup. Period. You should be condent enough that your strategy is good and will work, everytime.
~Shard~
Sound advice Music_Producer, well said. :cool:
03-13-2007 09:22 PM
Music_Producer
03-14-2007 02:37 AM
Bloody whipsaw time.. got out just in time with 4 pips :o A lot of selling pressure on the pound today, both reports came out positive though.. and the pound still refuses to rise!
nhallmark
yeah...I just stayed out. I haven't traded it before but Im glad I didn't get in.
03-14-2007 02:41 AM

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Music_Producer
Quote:
03-14-2007 02:44 AM
Originally Posted by nhallmark (Post 3441970) yeah...I just stayed out. I haven't traded it before but Im glad I didn't get in.
Yeah, this was one of 'those trades which are best not entered. Funny thing is, usually this report does move the currency quite a bit.. and the numbers were a good deviation. The aussie employment change report's next (later in the day)
~Shard~
03-14-2007 05:38 AM
Didn't get up to trade this morning. Watched the US data a few minutes ago, but not much of a move there at least nothing I could capitalize on. AUD employment #s are due out later today so I'll be watching that one. The forecast seems rather high compared to the previous report so I have a gut feeling the numbers might be lower than expected, but I guess we'll see.... ;)
nhallmark
03-14-2007 06:03 AM
I watched the US data also...GBP/USD didn't really move but I had a USD/JPY chart open in the background and it jumped up 20 pips...might be something to keep an eye on for future reference.
~Shard~
Quote:
03-14-2007 06:23 AM
Originally Posted by nhallmark (Post 3442218) I watched the US data also...GBP/USD didn't really move but I had a USD/JPY chart open in the background and it jumped up 20 pips...might be something to keep an eye on for future reference.
Actually I think that might be due to the Nikkei nhallmark. Which, yes, is a factor you can take into account as well if you like, but if you're going to do that you should probably also familiarize yourself with all the other indices as well and their resultant impacts to currencies. In the end, it's a lot more to think about so it's your call. I know personally, being a stock market guy rst and foremost, I watch the indices and commodities (don't have time for t-bills, bonds, etc. anymore!) and it's quite a lot to keep track of. I do enjoy it though - it's really cool to see the big picture and see why a move in the Asian markets adversely affects the US markets, causing bonds to rise, causing the USD to drop, which then triggers a rise in gold and... well, you get the idea. ;) :cool:
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nhallmark
03-14-2007 05:34 PM
no trade on the AUD employment change. The # came out good but the unemployment rate went up so I stayed out.
Music_Producer
Quote:
03-14-2007 05:35 PM
Originally Posted by nhallmark (Post 3442218) I watched the US data also...GBP/USD didn't really move but I had a USD/JPY chart open in the background and it jumped up 20 pips...might be something to keep an eye on for future reference.
The US data today wasn't really that important to trade with anyway.. and usd/jpy has a mind of its own (all jpy pairs) Like shard said.. has to do with the asian stocks.. and of course, anything related to carry trades or jpy reports (signicant ones) On aud/usd trade I got a re-quote..
~Shard~
03-14-2007 05:38 PM
Employment was good, but the unemployment rate went up - didn't trade due to conicting reports. AUDUSD didn't seem to do much anyway...
nhallmark
Are you guys trading the Swiss Interest Rate Decision at 3:30am(central)? Any thoughts on that?
03-14-2007 08:16 PM
~Shard~
03-14-2007 08:24 PM
I won't be getting up for it myself. They are planning on raising the rate 25 bps and that is what the market expects, and I don't see them deviating from that so I doubt there will be a signicant move. Of course, never say never!
OceanView
not much of a mover on the CHF. Squeaked out 3 pips though. If your sleeping, your not missing much.
03-15-2007 01:42 AM
nhallmark
03-15-2007 02:18 AM
Yeah, I was just going to watch. ForexFactory says it was delayed though. That's probably why there was no move, OceanView, but thanks for the update. :)
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Music_Producer
03-15-2007 03:27 AM
I would advise to exercise caution while trading the US PPI report.. another report coming out at the same time is the Empire State business conditions index. At the rate at which global markets are looking at us manufacturing activity to look for any positive signs in the US economy.. this report might actually turn out to be more important than the PPI report. I'll be personally trading a very small lot on these 2 reports.. chances of conicts could arise.. with resulting whipsaws.
Music_Producer
03-15-2007 05:38 AM
Stayed out.. both reports conicted.. but like i mentioned earlier.. the empire state business index was more important this time.. and also the fact that it came out way worse than expected!
nhallmark
03-15-2007 05:49 AM
Damn it, I guess I should have checked the forum before trading...lost 8 pips trading PPI..didn't realize the empire state business index until afterwards. :mad: I'll be aware of this in the future though.
Music_Producer
03-15-2007 06:06 AM
I'm tired of god damn re-quotes $$!#$@.. this was an easy 20 pip trade.. TIC report came out fantastic. Bloody hell, looks like cmc doesn't want to keep me as a customer :mad:
nhallmark
03-15-2007 06:19 AM
I didn't even try...I just stayed out because I wasnt sure how "good" the #s were...I'll know next time though
Music_Producer
03-16-2007 05:33 AM
No trade.. no deviation from core cpi.. however I made a few pips by trading gbp/usd (shorting) when it hit 1.9500. It bounced down to 1.9485 and I exited my positions. GBP is seeing quite a bit of strength .. probably wants to go back to its previous 1.97 levels :p
nhallmark
03-16-2007 05:40 AM
yeah, i didn't trade either, but I made 15 pips this morning on usd/chf when it broke 1.21...it was a good week.
~Shard~
No trade for me either this morning. Ah well, there's always more trades next week... :)
03-16-2007 05:41 AM
I did try that VanessaFX system on a couple practice trades after following it to the letter and getting all the "correct" signals, and it didn't work for me any of the times I tried it. I think I'll stick to trading facts instead... ;) :cool:
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Music_Producer
Quote:
03-16-2007 05:50 AM
Originally Posted by ~Shard~ (Post 3448955) No trade for me either this morning. Ah well, there's always more trades next week... :) I did try that VanessaFX system on a couple practice trades after following it to the letter and getting all the "correct" signals, and it didn't work for me any of the times I tried it. I think I'll stick to trading facts instead... ;) :cool:
Welcome to the club ;) I wish we all stayed in one place and pooled in funds to open an account that featured a Currenex or FXall platform (used by major banks) No re-quote hell.. ahh, that would be sweet. Next trades I'm looking at are on Tuesday.. UK and Canadian CPI.
~Shard~
Quote:
03-16-2007 05:59 AM
Originally Posted by Music_Producer (Post 3448970) Welcome to the club ;) I wish we all stayed in one place and pooled in funds to open an account that featured a Currenex or FXall platform (used by major banks) No re-quote hell.. ahh, that would be sweet. Next trades I'm looking at are on Tuesday.. UK and Canadian CPI.
No worries, I was always a part of the (news trading) club I think... ;)
nhallmark
03-16-2007 06:24 AM
damn it, industrial production was an easy 20 pips...i didn't trade it because I was watching...it usually doesn't do anything. Shard, err...i dont know about the vanessafx thing. Its been working for me but I only take a trade when its a really good set up and thats maybe 3-5 times a week.
~Shard~
Ohhhhkay...
03-16-2007 06:25 AM
Wasn't planning on trading the 7:15 data, but I thought I'd watch it for fun and am I ever glad I did! Bagged 15 pips on shorting the GBPUSD! Was going to get out immediately but held on for just a split-second longer than I normally would since it was heading down so fast. A nice way to start the weekend... :D
~Shard~
Quote:
03-16-2007 06:27 AM
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Originally Posted by nhallmark (Post 3449044) Shard, err...i dont know about the vanessafx thing. Its been working for me but I only take a trade when its a really good set up and thats maybe 3-5 times a week.
No worries, I'll keep an eye on it for fun and will not abandon it - I'll still do practice trades with it. But that's the whole point - it's not a big deal for me, because these have all been practice trades - it's not like I've lost actual money or anything, so I'm not upset! I always research things thoroughly before investing any real money, so in this case, it was money well unspent. ;) :)
OceanView
03-16-2007 12:00 PM
Good to hear that everyone made some money this week. I am still playing with a game account but hope to soon join everyone and use real money. Just wondering, how long did it take you to play with a game account before you transitioned to a live account?
~Shard~
03-16-2007 01:24 PM
It took me a few months, but keep in mind that I am a "veteran investor" of the stock markets, so I had a fair bit of experience in general before embarking of forex trading. If it was all new to me, I would have took even longer, but it's different for everybody. Do what feels right for you, and above all else, exercise patience. :cool:
nhallmark
I didn't trade UK CPI, but I got 34 pips on Canadian CPI. :D
03-20-2007 04:02 AM
Music_Producer
03-20-2007 04:04 AM
50 pips on the UK cpi report ( I got in a bit late.. after the core numbers came out the same.. but the y/y came out higher and so did the RPI .. rate of ination. :D 35 pips on the Canadian CPI report.. coulda made 40 but hey, its CMC re-quote fever that always causes a 5-10 pip loss all the time :p Sweet day!
Music_Producer
Quote:
03-20-2007 04:05 AM
Originally Posted by nhallmark (Post 3460868) I didn't trade UK CPI, but I got 34 pips on Canadian CPI. :D
Awesome! See that's the musicproducerfx system.. you like it huh :p :) Edit : Nathan, you trading US housing starts? I just feel like it won't be a mover.. so Im debating whether I should stay up for a potential 8 pips prot or not.
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nhallmark
Quote:
03-20-2007 04:16 AM
Originally Posted by Music_Producer (Post 3460872) Awesome! See that's the musicproducerfx system.. you like it huh :p :) Edit : Nathan, you trading US housing starts? I just feel like it won't be a mover.. so Im debating whether I should stay up for a potential 8 pips prot or not.
Yeah, that's my favorite system. :D Uh..Im probably going to watch it, but Im thinking it will be more important next month, since today's data is from last month...but if there is a huge deviation I will probably jump in. Man, I cant believe I missed UK CPI...woke up late. I'll be ok though Edit: US Housing Starts moved a whole 3 pips! ...I stayed out.
~Shard~
Grabbed 5 pips on the GBPUSD pair from the US data this morning, but that's it.
03-20-2007 09:02 AM
However, I did an expriment with a very small lot ($25K) yesterday based on a strong BUY indicator I received from one of my MACD techniques on the USDJPY pair. :D Made 65 pips and got the hell out before the interest rate announcement and before it started tanking. So, technical trading does have its place from time to time! ;) :cool:
OceanView
Quote:
03-20-2007 10:13 PM
Originally Posted by ~Shard~ (Post 3461754) Grabbed 5 pips on the GBPUSD pair from the US data this morning, but that's it. However, I did an expriment with a very small lot ($25K) yesterday based on a strong BUY indicator I received from one of my MACD techniques on the USDJPY pair. :D Made 65 pips and got the hell out before the interest rate announcement and before it started tanking. So, technical trading does have its place from time to time! ;) :cool:
That's awesome! Does MACD work with trading the news strategy or is this a completely different strategy?
Music_Producer
03-21-2007 02:35 AM
The pips keep rolling in! 55 pips on the GBP/USD trade.. I love any Bank of England report.. they always move the markets. BOE minutes vote came out at 8-1 (8 ppl voted for no hike.. only 1 person voted for a rate hike)
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Next up, Canadian retail sales.
Music_Producer
03-21-2007 02:37 AM
Btw nathan, I got the opportunity to check out the 003 in a studio... no difference in that and the 002 (supposedly they have better convertors.. uh, yeah right) :p Good old Digi.. always upgrading the look but not the features!
nhallmark
I didn't trade Canadian Retail Sales, it deviated by 0.1%.
03-21-2007 05:36 AM
I watched the BOE meeting minutes but I didn't trade because I wasn't sure what I was supposed to be looking for. Yeah, Music_Producer, Im thinking I will get the Apogee or something from Focusrite...not sure yet, but I did decide the 003 was a rip off, so thanks for conrming that :p
OceanView
03-21-2007 11:23 AM
Well I made $2048 in the game account on todays Interest rate announcement. The newsash on OandA is really slow. I jumped in when I saw the spike take off. The actual news did not show up on OandA until 2mins after the announcement and after all the movements, what a joke. Can everyone tell me which news and brokerage is the best at this point? I want to use real money by May 1st and want to get use to their format. Thanks EDIT: Still rising!!! Hope you made some good money.
nhallmark
03-21-2007 11:24 AM
Damn...Rates were left unchanged, of course, but I gured that the Fed is "dropping their ination bias" = no rate hikes(for the short term) = bad for the $. So, I jumped in when it started going up and I got 27 pips :D Edit: OceanView, I use tradethenews. Their site is www.tradethenews.com . They have a 1 week free trial(they let mine go for 3 weeks though) and I trade with CMC and Im 90% sure that Shard and Music_Producer use the same. CMC's demo is only for 10 days though...I think.(could be wrong)
OceanView
Quote:
03-21-2007 11:44 AM
Originally Posted by nhallmark (Post 3466288)
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Damn...Rates were left unchanged, of course, but I gured that the Fed is "dropping their ination bias" = no rate hikes(for the short term) = bad for the $. So, I jumped in when it started going up and I got 27 pips :D Edit: OceanView, I use tradethenews. Their site is www.tradethenews.com . They have a 1 week free trial(they let mine go for 3 weeks though) and I trade with CMC and Im 90% sure that Shard and Music_Producer use the same. CMC's demo is only for 10 days though...I think.(could be wrong)
Thanks, I was temped to buy the Euro before the announcement as all indication was that the rates were going to be left unchanged.
~Shard~
Quote:
03-21-2007 02:52 PM
Originally Posted by OceanView (Post 3464545) Does MACD work with trading the news strategy or is this a completely different strategy?
Oh no, it's purely a technical method. Some technical traders would argue that the news is priced into the technicals, so they know what's going to happen before it happens but I'm not that naive. :p ;) :D I have have a few indicators set up and when the stars align, I see what happens. :cool:
Quote:
Originally Posted by nhallmark (Post 3465190) I didn't trade Canadian Retail Sales, it deviated by 0.1%.
I purposely traded the correction and nabbed 5 pips. Not bad.

Quote:
Originally Posted by OceanView (Post 3466287) Can everyone tell me which news and brokerage is the best at this point?
Trade the News, as Nathan said, is the best news service (unless you want to dish out for the Bloomberg service! :eek: ) and we're currently using Oanda and CMC here. Both have the strengths and weaknesses, but no platform is perfect....
OceanView
Quote:
03-21-2007 04:34 PM
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Originally Posted by ~Shard~ (Post 3467079) Oh no, it's purely a technical method. Some technical traders would argue that the news is priced into the technicals, so they know what's going to happen before it happens but I'm not that naive. :p ;) :D I have have a few indicators set up and when the stars align, I see what happens. :cool:
Shard : Is the MACD strategy that you are using capable of giving high percentage of wins like the Trade the news strategy? If so, it might be good for the times that we are not trading the news. Also, where are you in Canada?

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~Shard~
Quote:
03-21-2007 05:05 PM
Originally Posted by OceanView (Post 3467429) Shard : Is the MACD strategy that you are using capable of giving high percentage of wins like the Trade the news strategy? If so, it might be good for the times that we are not trading the news. Also, where are you in Canada?
I denitely wouldn't say it's high percentage - if it were, well, I'd be using it all the time! ;) :D As well, it subject to interpretation in a way. A rounded top formation may indicate a short signal to some people, whereas to others it is a TC. That's why I look at fundamentals rst and other factors, then look at what the technicals are saying. If I get a few different indicators agreeing, then I'll take a trade, such as I did earlier with USDJPY. But no, it's not an exact science. The type of method I usually use is actually a little similar to that VenessaFX system Nathan mentioned, with respect to MACDs, SMAs and EMAs. It's a good complement to trading the news, but nothing more. Plus, trading technicals requires longer timeframes for trading, so that spikes due to news events do not adversely effect the longer term trend. As a result, you're looking at 4-hour or daily charts, so you may only get 3-4 solid signals a week, if that - and that's if you're watching when they hit - if a BUY signal comes in due to a MACD crossover but it's 2:00 AM and you don't see it until 8:00 AM and 30 pips have already gone by, well, you missed the boat... ;) :cool:
~Shard~
03-21-2007 09:42 PM
Whoops, forgot to answer your last question - I live in Regina, SK. Great place, I love it... :cool:
Music_Producer
03-22-2007 02:38 AM
30 pips on the gbp/usd - retail sales came out much better than expected. Lately UK reports have been deviating like crazy.. good for us :D
OceanView
Quote:
03-22-2007 01:36 PM
Originally Posted by Music_Producer (Post 3468626) 30 pips on the gbp/usd - retail sales came out much better than expected. Lately UK reports have
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been deviating like crazy.. good for us :D
Awesome! I could not get up to trade this one. Has anyone looked into this company for currency trading? http://www.cmsfx.com/en/ I've used there demo account before and I like the interface but I dont know much about them. I did hear a few recommendations from websites before.
OceanView
Quote:
03-22-2007 01:40 PM
Originally Posted by ~Shard~ (Post 3468243) Whoops, forgot to answer your last question - I live in Regina, SK. Great place, I love it... :cool:
Looks like a place you can take a deep breath (not like LA):( What do you do in the winter? I am allergic to cold by the way :D
~Shard~
Quote:
03-22-2007 01:48 PM
Originally Posted by OceanView (Post 3470461) Looks like a place you can take a deep breath (not like LA):( What do you do in the winter? I am allergic to cold by the way :D
Yep - we have nice, wide open prairie, amazing forests to the north, and further north, over 100,000 lakes with amazing shing. (Yes, that's correct, I didn't add an extra zero. :D) You can get anywhere in the city in 20-25 minutes max and yet we're not a "small town" by any means, and have everything "the big city" has. ;) The cost of living here is extremely low, so many people end up paying off their mortgages in 10-15 years or so and having a lot more money as a result for other fun things, without having to be in debt up to their eyeballs. Great quality of life as a result, no complaints. :) Winter sucks at times, but compared to other possible problems, such as ooding, tornadoes, hurricanes, earthquakes (not that they happen often!) and all that, it could be worse. ;) You just learn to bundle up and layer, and there's a really only a couple weeks out of the entire winter when it is stupidly cold, i.e. -30 to -40. :eek: The spring and fall are great times, and the summer makes up for the winter, when it can easily get 100-120 degrees out with LOTS of sun. :)
OceanView
Quote:
03-22-2007 02:03 PM
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Originally Posted by ~Shard~ (Post 3470484) Yep - we have nice, wide open prairie, amazing forests to the north, and further north, over 100,000 lakes with amazing shing. (Yes, that's correct, I didn't add an extra zero. :D) You can get anywhere in the city in 20-25 minutes max and yet we're not a "small town" by any means, and have everything "the big city" has. ;) The cost of living here is extremely low, so many people end up paying off their mortgages in 10-15 years or so and having a lot more money as a result for other fun things, without having to be in debt up to their eyeballs. Great quality of life as a result, no complaints. :) Winter sucks at times, but compared to other possible problems, such as ooding, tornadoes, hurricanes, earthquakes (not that they happen often!) and all that, it could be worse. ;) You just learn to bundle up and layer, and there's a really only a couple weeks out of the entire winter when it is stupidly cold, i.e. -30 to -40. :eek: The spring and fall are great times, and the summer makes up for the winter, when it can easily get 100-120 degrees out with LOTS of sun. :)
So how much is a typical 2,000 sq.ft. house there? And your taxes are about 48%?
~Shard~
Quote:
03-22-2007 02:27 PM
Originally Posted by OceanView (Post 3470529) So how much is a typical 2,000 sq.ft. house there? And your taxes are about 48%?
Taxes are higher than the States, yes, due to our smaller population base, however not quite 48%. ;) A 2000 sq ft house would depend on the area of town and the age of the house, but it would probably run you between $200K-$300K CAD, which would be about $170K-$260K USD. Our house, for example, was built in 1984, is a 2-storey spilt with vaulted ceilings, 3 bedrooms, nished basement, renno-ed practically brand new, 2400 sq. ft in total, in a great area of town and we paid $200K for it. It's nice not having a mortgage and paying all that interest! Leaves me more money for trading. :D For one other example, my friends just bought a brand new house in the "high end" area of the city for $380K ($325K USD). It's 3400 square feet, 4 bedrooms and has an amazing indoor pool along with a 8-person hot tub. Pretty nice! :cool:
OceanView
Quote:
03-22-2007 03:11 PM
Originally Posted by ~Shard~ (Post 3470613) Taxes are higher than the States, yes, due to our smaller population base, however not quite 48%. ;) A 2000 sq ft house would depend on the area of town and the age of the house, but it would probably run you between $200K-$300K CAD, which would be about $170K-$260K USD. Our house, for example, was built in 1984, is a 2-storey spilt with vaulted ceilings, 3 bedrooms, nished basement, renno-ed practically brand new, 2400 sq. ft in total, in a great area of town and we paid $200K for it. It's nice not having a mortgage and paying all that interest! Leaves me more money for trading. :D
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For one other example, my friends just bought a brand new house in the "high end" area of the city for $380K ($325K USD). It's 3400 square feet, 4 bedrooms and has an amazing indoor pool along with a 8-person hot tub. Pretty nice! :cool:
Indoor pool in a 3400 sqft house? Wow! I guess you would need an indoor pool for your winters could be an indoor ice rink too. :p
~Shard~
Quote:
03-22-2007 03:17 PM
Originally Posted by OceanView (Post 3470745) Indoor pool in a 3400 sqft house? Wow! I guess you would need an indoor pool for your winters could be an indoor ice rink too. :p
Precisely! :D
nhallmark
03-23-2007 07:04 AM
I woke up too late for UK retail sales yesterday, but the way the data is going, we could see another rate hike soon :D I got 10 pips on US existing home sales this morning, though.
~Shard~
03-23-2007 08:11 AM
I had the good fortune of being home yesterday instead of being at work. I had my CMC terminal open all day while I was woking on my Mac and rode the big wave! I was closely watching the support levels and shorted EURUSD from 1.3350 down to 1.3320 after getting a clear signal, then, once it stabalized a bit, went long at 1.3324 and got out at 1.3334 where it stalled. I have never done that before (since it was bascially speculation trading) but it was fun! And, it wasn't just blind trading, as I was paying very close attention to the MAs for where support and resistance lines were, and they were pretty much bang on - watching the 5 minute candles helped too. It was almost scary how accurate they were, and I timed everything pretty much perfect. Can't say I'm eager to try it again though any time soon - too hard on the nerves! So, for once, my "technical trading" has performed better than my news trading for the week. Either way though, I'm not complaining - pips are pips! :D Should be another good week next week - happy trading everyone... :cool:
OceanView
Quote:
03-23-2007 01:22 PM
Originally Posted by ~Shard~ (Post 3472964) I had the good fortune of being home yesterday instead of being at work. I had my CMC terminal
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open all day while I was woking on my Mac and rode the big wave! I was closely watching the support levels and shorted EURUSD from 1.3350 down to 1.3320 after getting a clear signal, then, once it stabalized a bit, went long at 1.3324 and got out at 1.3334 where it stalled. I have never done that before (since it was bascially speculation trading) but it was fun! And, it wasn't just blind trading, as I was paying very close attention to the MAs for where support and resistance lines were, and they were pretty much bang on - watching the 5 minute candles helped too. It was almost scary how accurate they were, and I timed everything pretty much perfect. Can't say I'm eager to try it again though any time soon - too hard on the nerves! So, for once, my "technical trading" has performed better than my news trading for the week. Either way though, I'm not complaining - pips are pips! :D Should be another good week next week - happy trading everyone... :cool:
Good for you Shard! Maybe staying home is a good thing! I need to do that more often myself.
~Shard~
Quote:
03-23-2007 04:32 PM
Originally Posted by OceanView (Post 3474196) Good for you Shard! Maybe staying home is a good thing! I need to do that more often myself.
Yeah, it was a nice break, but I don't think I could ever be a true day trader. You always have to be "on", watching multiple things, high stress, no guaranteed income nor benets. ;) I'll just stick with my stable lower stress job and do this on the side, I think. ;) :cool:
Music_Producer
03-26-2007 07:04 AM
24 pips on the US new home sales trade.. when is the Fed going to learn that they need to raise the rates.. housing is NOT going to recover anytime soon :rolleyes:
nhallmark
03-26-2007 07:06 AM
I got 15 pips. I got out early because gbp/usd was already moving up so much before the report. Did you guys trade the NZD trade balance yesterday? TTN was really late on the news so I didnt get in, but it moved 10-15 pips.
Music_Producer
Quote:
03-26-2007 07:32 AM
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Originally Posted by nhallmark (Post 3481853) I got 15 pips. I got out early because gbp/usd was already moving up so much before the report. Did you guys trade the NZD trade balance yesterday? TTN was really late on the news so I didnt get in, but it moved 10-15 pips.
I tried getting in after the spike (to fade it) but got a stupid re-quote. Been getting them on 50% of trades now.. not a good sign.
~Shard~
03-26-2007 07:48 AM
Had to go to work today so wasn't able to trade - but that's okay, there'll always be another report to make pips from. ;) Interesting though, I was watching EURUSD and GBPUSD since early this morning and based on the technicals, they were giving strong BUY signals. Then, just before the report came out (when I had to leave) they started going up further - then the news came out and cormed their move - it was somewhat interesting. ;) Do people truly know the news before it comes out via leaks? Is the news somehow priced into the markets ahead of time when/if this occurs? because I've seen it happen on a few different occassions as of late... Hmm, so what would have hapened then if there was a big positive surprise for the US? What an interesting game we play... ;) :D
nhallmark
03-26-2007 12:39 PM
Are you guys trading the German ifo Business thing tomorrow? I watched it last time, but I cant remember if it moved or not, so Im not sure if its worth trading.
JAM3
Reaching out for help Unknown
03-26-2007 07:56 PM
Music_Producer
Quote:
03-26-2007 08:37 PM
Originally Posted by ~Shard~ (Post 3481955) Had to go to work today so wasn't able to trade - but that's okay, there'll always be another report to make pips from. ;) Interesting though, I was watching EURUSD and GBPUSD since early this morning and based on the technicals, they were giving strong BUY signals. Then, just before the report came out (when I had to leave) they started going up further - then the news came out and cormed their move - it was somewhat interesting. ;) Do people truly know the news before it comes out via leaks? Is the news somehow priced into the markets ahead of time when/if this occurs? because I've seen it happen on a few different occassions as of late... Hmm, so what would have hapened then if there was a big positive surprise for the US? What an interesting game we play... ;) :D
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Heh.. you techies get too carried away :p The reason the pound went up was because of talks that the BOE was going to raise rates on April 5. As soon as this came out, gbp started going up. Yes, sometimes news does leak.. but it's pretty rare. Another fact is that it's simply banks who are buying/selling to avoid any of their stops being hit.. and they usually do this before or after a news report, because that's when most action takes place. I've seen the opposite take place.. for instance.. before a report, gbp will go down.. and keep going lower.. thereby creating an illusion that the news has leaked and the number is US positive. However, news comes out US negative.. and all of a sudden GBP reverses its course. I love those type of spikes obviously because of a larger range and more pips attainable.
OceanView
Quote:
03-26-2007 09:01 PM
Originally Posted by nhallmark (Post 3483026) Are you guys trading the German ifo Business thing tomorrow? I watched it last time, but I cant remember if it moved or not, so Im not sure if its worth trading.
I am gonna try to trade it if I can get up. Going to bed now for a few hours.
~Shard~
Quote:
03-26-2007 09:39 PM
Originally Posted by Music_Producer (Post 3484460) Heh.. you techies get too carried away :p The reason the pound went up was because of talks that the BOE was going to raise rates on April 5. As soon as this came out, gbp started going up. Yes, sometimes news does leak.. but it's pretty rare. Another fact is that it's simply banks who are buying/selling to avoid any of their stops being hit.. and they usually do this before or after a news report, because that's when most action takes place. I've seen the opposite take place.. for instance.. before a report, gbp will go down.. and keep going lower.. thereby creating an illusion that the news has leaked and the number is US positive. However, news comes out US negative.. and all of a sudden GBP reverses its course. I love those type of spikes obviously because of a larger range and more pips attainable.
Heh heh, thanks for the insight. And don't call me a techie! I'm a news trader rst and foremost when it comes to forex! :p ;) :D
nhallmark
I got a damn requote on the German Ifo thing :mad: Oh well, there are plenty of reports this week that will make up for it.
03-27-2007 01:04 AM
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Music_Producer
Quote:
03-27-2007 01:06 AM
Originally Posted by nhallmark (Post 3484939) I got a damn requote on the German Ifo thing :mad: Oh well, there are plenty of reports this week that will make up for it.
I was able to get in ne.. saw a 7 pip prot.. tried to exit.. but got re-quoted a zillion times.. eventually I made 0 pips :rolleyes:
Music_Producer
03-27-2007 07:12 AM
From 12 pips to 1 pip.. re-quotes are killing me.. what a waste of time to stay up to trade and then make close to nothing.
nhallmark
03-27-2007 07:13 AM
No trade on Consumer Condence, but I had something weird happen....5 seconds before the report until 5 seconds after, my buy/sell buttons blanked out, meaning they were "non-clickable" and my response time sent to like 2000 milliseconds. I wasnt doing anything different than what I normally do, so the only thing I can think of is its a glitch in the software or CMC froze my account during the news release because I always trade news. :cool: Hmm...I dont know what to think, but hopefully it doesnt happen again. :mad: Edit: Hey, Music_Producer, I dont know how much capital you have but I was reading about currenex the other day and one guy was saying he trades the news on currenex through ODL, which is white label so the deposit is $25K, but he was saying he trades 40 lots without a problem. ...something to think about, I guess.
Music_Producer
Quote:
03-27-2007 07:15 AM
Originally Posted by nhallmark (Post 3485543) No trade on Consumer Condence, but I had something weird happen....5 seconds before the report until 5 seconds after, my buy/sell buttons blanked out, meaning they were "non-clickable" and my response time sent to like 2000 milliseconds. I wasnt doing anything different than what I normally do, so the only thing I can think of is its a glitch in the software or CMC froze my account during the news release because I always trade news. :cool: Hmm...I dont know what to think, but hopefully it doesnt happen again. :mad:
Maybe they just don't want you to trade.. with me, it's as if they want me to open an position and then never
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close it.. or close it after I go in a loss. I'm moving most of my money out.. it's a little scary what they are doing.
lagunacat
Oanda issues
03-27-2007 10:26 AM
Anybody else having issues with Oanda's timeframe/prices not staying current? Since yesterday I noticed the platform lagging behind. This morning it was more than 2 hours. To get current I need to log out and log in. Using Safari.
JAM3
Question
03-27-2007 01:43 PM
I'm a little confused on when to jump into a trade.:confused: I've never traded but plan to start practicing and will trade only EUR/USD, make it easier on my brain:) BASED ON FUNDAMENTAL TRADING... For example: You're trading EUR/USD and got an announcement from an economic calendar and on the day of the the ofcial announcement via live trading news the interest rate for USD goes up, would you jump in by buying EUR with USD? Then, once you feel you've made enough prot (excluding the fact that you might lose prot) would you sell the EUR to buy back the USD? If so, what would be the case if it was the opposite, USD interest goes down...Would you stay out and not buy or sell? Also, when trading EUR/USD do you look out for news pertaining to EURO rates going up or down? Because the way I see it right now if it were both ways you would never lose money??? Please shed some light on this. I understand most of the basics pretty thoroughly like basic terms, margins, etc. but just a couple things keep confusing me.
~Shard~
03-27-2007 03:07 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Music_Producer (Post 3485549) Maybe they just don't want you to trade.. with me, it's as if they want me to open an position and then never close it.. or close it after I go in a loss. I'm moving most of my money out.. it's a little scary what they are doing.
Quote:
Originally Posted by lagunacat (Post 3486214) Anybody else having issues with Oanda's timeframe/prices not staying current? Since yesterday I noticed the platform lagging behind. This morning it was more than 2 hours. To get current I need to log out and log in. Using Safari.
Sorry to hear about these experiences. It looks as though no one is with a service that does not have its issues, whether it's CMC or Oanda! If anyone nds one, please let the rest of us know! ;)
Quote:
Originally Posted by JAM3 (Post 3487033) I'm a little confused on when to jump into a trade.:confused: I've never traded but plan to start practicing and will trade only EUR/USD, make it easier on my brain:)
Let me try to help...

Quote:
Originally Posted by JAM3 (Post 3487033) For example: You're trading EUR/USD and got an announcement from an economic calendar and on the day of the the ofcial announcement via live trading news the interest rate for USD goes up, would you jump in by buying EUR with USD? Then, once you feel you've made enough prot (excluding the fact that you might lose prot) would you sell the EUR to buy back the USD?
First of all, no - if the US interest rate goes up, you want to go long on the USD, not short. Higher interest rates may technically be bad news from an economic standpoint, but from a currency valuation standpoint it is positive. In this case you would short EUR/USD and then to close your position and secure a prot (hopefully!) you would then buy the same lot size.
Quote:
Originally Posted by JAM3 (Post 3487033) If so, what would be the case if it was the opposite, USD interest goes down...Would you stay out and not buy or sell?
If the US interest rate went down, I would buy EUR/USD.
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Originally Posted by JAM3 (Post 3487033) Also, when trading EUR/USD do you look out for news pertaining to EURO rates going up or down?
Of course - if you are trading the EUR/USD pair, then Euro-related news is just as important as US news in terms of what might move the currency. Again, if EUR rates go up, I would buy EUR/USD.
Quote:
Originally Posted by JAM3 (Post 3487033) Because the way I see it right now if it were both ways you would never lose money??? Please shed some light on this.
I do not understand what you mean by this, can you please clarify this comment? Any other questions, just ask! :cool:
Music_Producer
03-27-2007 03:31 PM
JAM3, I would simply advise you to read this entire thread.. you have your basics wrong. There are a lot of topics regarding interest rates, how currencies move if there is an *unexpected* interest rate change.. etc. Don't conne yourself to trading only interest rate decisions.. there are tons of economic reports to trade.. just read this thread. It's hard to explain everything that has already been mentioned.. in a new reply. Shard pretty much explained what happens when interest rate goes up or down. Shard.. I don't understand why brokers would do this i.e. freeze trades.. cause customers to go in a loss, etc. I mean, they are making their money on the pip spread anyway.. that's the whole point of the spread. So when I see people state 'Oh, if you make too much money they go in a loss' How does CMC go in a loss if we make money on trades? :confused:
nhallmark
03-27-2007 04:24 PM
Shard might know more about it, but from what I understand, the reason CMC(or whoever) goes in a loss when we make money is because they are taking the other side of our trades...so if we buy, they sell...we make 20 pips, they lose it. Supposedly, our trades never touch the real market, unless a lot of the customers have trades one way, then they will place a big order in the actual market to cover all those trades. I don't know if any of this is true or even why they do it, but thats what Ive heard. That's why I was saying above that supposedly you dont have these problems with currenex...even though its a white label thing. Speaking of which, I found a video today that shows what happens during news in the real market(currenex) compared to oanda...
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http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5CSbzera08o I could be completely wrong on all this...Im just relaying what Ive heard.
Music_Producer
03-27-2007 11:50 PM
Nathan, that's kinda what I've heard too. If this is true, and it must be.. it seems as though all these brokers (market makers such as oanda, cmc, etc) are all out just to make money out of amateur traders ($400 mini accounts being destroyed in a matter of days, or hours) since most of them don't even know what they're doing. It's amazing how they are allowed to operate like this.. if a 'one click dealing' is advertised.. it should be one click.. and not multiple clicks to deal with re-quotes.. slippage, freezing, etc. Just plain ridiculous :mad: Brokers offering currenex, well I hope they don't do the same thing, I mean I wouldn't want to put all my money in there and go through the same thing all over again!
Music_Producer
03-28-2007 01:35 AM
Real smooth trade this time. 15 pips.. gbp gdp *and* current account came out lower than forecast.. so there was no other way for gbp to go but down.
nhallmark
Damn, I got another requote :mad: We've got 3 more trades today though, so I'll be happy if I get one of them. Are you trading the swiss leading index in 45min?
03-28-2007 01:42 AM
Music_Producer
03-28-2007 01:53 AM
Is your response time in the platform more than 500 ms? Mine was , luckily, 172 ms.. so my trades went through. Yes, I'll be trading the CHF report..hopefully no re-quotes!!
Music_Producer
Barely any deviation.. but i got in anyway and made 2 pips :p
03-28-2007 02:32 AM
nhallmark
03-28-2007 02:33 AM
No trade...didn't deviate enough. Yeah, my response time was between 300-500ms. I usually never have a problem...its always 110ms, but its been doing this for every trade this week.
Music_Producer
03-28-2007 05:38 AM
I didn't even try and trade this one.. it took me 6-7 attempts to log into CMC's platform (at 5.15 am) .. when I nally got in, the response time was 2100 ms :eek: I let this one go, although it would have been a beautiful
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trade.. durable goods report came out horrible.. the US economy is looking pretty screwed right now. Would have been a nice 30+ pip prot had the f$%^@@# platform allowed me to trade

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nhallmark
03-28-2007 06:17 AM
I actually fell back asleep so I didn't trade it. I would have thought the move would have been bigger by looking at the #s. Maybe everyone's waiting on bernanke today.
~Shard~
03-28-2007 06:21 AM
You're not alone Music_Producer - CMC seemed to be "experiencing technical difculties' this morning, as I could not log in either. Too bad, because as you say, it would have been a good trade. Oh well, what can ya do... I'd look for other forex brokers just to see how they compare, but here in Canada my options are a little more limited, as I do not want to hand my money over to a US operation for security and tax purposes...
nhallmark
Hey...I just got an email from CMC apologizing for the service outage this morning. ...at least their acknowledging the problem. I guess we'll see if it gets better on NZD today :rolleyes:
03-28-2007 07:55 AM
~Shard~
03-28-2007 08:12 AM
Hmm, I haven't received one yet, if I don't perhaps I'll contact them and try and get compensated for the virtual trade I would have made. :p ;) :D
OceanView
03-28-2007 08:24 AM
I didn't trade this morning cause the news from OandA was confusing. The news looked like it was good news for the dollar but obviously it was not cause the Euro spiked. Now that I look at the Forex Factory results from this mornings Core Durable Goods Orders, I can see why the Eur/USD went up. I hope the Tradethenews service is much clearer on the news.
~Shard~
03-28-2007 08:53 AM
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Originally Posted by OceanView (Post 3489632) The news looked like it was good news for the dollar but obviously it was not cause the Euro spiked.
What exactly did Oanda's report say to give you that impression? Just curious...
OceanView
Quote:
03-28-2007 09:49 AM
Originally Posted by ~Shard~ (Post 3489724) What exactly did Oanda's report say to give you that impression? Just curious...
I can't go back that far on the news reports but there was about 6 or 7 news ashes that had durable goods info, it didn't say -0.1 but it had 2.5 or something like that. There were many items with many different numbers. That is why I was confused. How did Tradethenews report it today? Was it just one line that had -0.1% ?
~Shard~
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03-28-2007 10:18 AM
Originally Posted by OceanView (Post 3489940) I can't go back that far on the news reports but there was about 6 or 7 news ashes that had durable goods info, it didn't say -0.1 but it had 2.5 or something like that. There were many items with many different numbers. That is why I was confused. How did Tradethenews report it today? Was it just one line that had -0.1% ?
Weird... Yeah, TTN is usually pretty simple and accurate. I can't speak to what it said for this specic report though since CMC decided that I wasn't tradingn this morning... :rolleyes: ;)
OceanView
Quote:
03-28-2007 10:24 AM
Originally Posted by ~Shard~ (Post 3490021) Weird... Yeah, TTN is usually pretty simple and accurate. I can't speak to what it said for this specic report though since CMC decided that I wasn't tradingn this morning... :rolleyes: ;)
OK, I am gonna sign up for TTN today and hope that its better than OandA.
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Thanks
~Shard~
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03-28-2007 10:44 AM
Originally Posted by OceanView (Post 3490047) OK, I am gonna sign up for TTN today and hope that its better than OandA. Thanks
Keep in mind it isn't free. ;) Text is $40/month and audio is $180/month. The audio is noticeably faster.
OceanView
Quote:
03-28-2007 11:07 AM
Originally Posted by ~Shard~ (Post 3490127) Keep in mind it isn't free. ;) Text is $40/month and audio is $180/month. The audio is noticeably faster.
I know. Will start with the text for now and convert to audio when I go live. :)
nhallmark
Hey guys,
03-28-2007 12:02 PM
Iceland's interest rates have been mentioned a few times on this thread and it looks like there is a way to trade their currency. I found this article on Bloomberg today... http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...refer=currency I wonder how we would get access to that. You probably have to be institutional, but damn...that interest rate would be quite the carry trade. :cool: I wonder if you can open a savings account there. After seeing this, swiss accounts are sooo last decade :p ;)
~Shard~
03-28-2007 12:07 PM
Yes, I have been well aware of the Icelandic interest rate, and actually it has been mentioned several times throughout this thread - probably before your time. ;) If there's a way to trade it, I'd be game! :D
Music_Producer
03-28-2007 12:19 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by OceanView (Post 3489940) I can't go back that far on the news reports but there was about 6 or 7 news ashes that had durable goods info, it didn't say -0.1 but it had 2.5 or something like that. There were many items with many different numbers. That is why I was confused. How did Tradethenews report it today? Was it just one line that had -0.1% ?
Nothing confusing about that.. you just didn't know that there were 2 reports today.. the Durable Goods Orders report month to month.. and the *Core* Durable Goods Orders report (ex-transportation) month to month. Durable Goods orders was expected at 3% but it came out at 2.5%, and the core report was expected at 1.8% but came out at -0.1%. So *both* reports came out lower than expected.. that's not USD Positive. :) Nathan, I received the cmc email as well.. funny their email stated "Please except our apology" .. ok.. I won't accept it then :p Shard, do US forex rms levy taxes on prots? If you reside in Canada, you shouldn't have to pay any, right? Or maybe I'm wrong.
~Shard~
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03-28-2007 02:03 PM
Originally Posted by Music_Producer (Post 3490452) Nathan, I received the cmc email as well.. funny their email stated "Please except our apology" .. ok.. I won't accept it then :p
Haha! Well, obviously basic English grammar and spelling are not their strong suits - they best stick with forex trading I guess! ;) :D
Quote:
Originally Posted by Music_Producer (Post 3490452) Shard, do US forex rms levy taxes on prots? If you reside in Canada, you shouldn't have to pay any, right? Or maybe I'm wrong.
Yes, in Canada I do not have to pay any taxes, but with the US, well, I might - the tax laws seem a little cloudy and ambiguous, at least on the Canadian side with respect to "foreign income", so I am not sure to be honest. And I would rather avoid a walk down that dark path if possible. ;) It's simpler this way - my taxes are complicated enough as it is, what with ow-through entities, limited partnerships, income trusts and the like. :cool:
OceanView
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03-28-2007 02:11 PM
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Originally Posted by Music_Producer (Post 3490452) Nothing confusing about that.. you just didn't know that there were 2 reports today.. the Durable Goods Orders report month to month.. and the *Core* Durable Goods Orders report (ex-transportation) month to month. Durable Goods orders was expected at 3% but it came out at 2.5%, and the core report was expected at 1.8% but came out at -0.1%. So *both* reports came out lower than expected.. that's not USD Positive. :) Nathan, I received the cmc email as well.. funny their email stated "Please except our apology" .. ok.. I won't accept it then :p Shard, do US forex rms levy taxes on prots? If you reside in Canada, you shouldn't have to pay any, right? Or maybe I'm wrong.
OK, I see my mistake now. I didn't realize there were 2 that were so closely worded. :mad: Next time I will have my coffee before I start. :rolleyes: What are your thoughts on the NZD ? Should I be trading the NZD/USD or AUD/NZD ?
Music_Producer
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03-28-2007 02:50 PM
Originally Posted by OceanView (Post 3490858) OK, I see my mistake now. I didn't realize there were 2 that were so closely worded. :mad: Next time I will have my coffee before I start. :rolleyes: What are your thoughts on the NZD ? Should I be trading the NZD/USD or AUD/NZD ?
Haha, I had a beer last night while trading the uk report.. it took the stress away :p I'll be trading the nzd/usd today.. you can trade either one of them but i prefer the nzd/usd.
~Shard~
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03-28-2007 03:00 PM
Originally Posted by Music_Producer (Post 3491009) I'll be trading the nzd/usd today.. you can trade either one of them but i prefer the nzd/usd.
Yeah, some pairs react more than others. For instance, when trading US data, it's best to trade the GBPUSD as opposed to the EURUSD, as the GBPUSD moves more for whatever reason. :cool:
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OceanView
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03-28-2007 03:02 PM
Originally Posted by Music_Producer (Post 3491009) Haha, I had a beer last night while trading the uk report.. it took the stress away :p I'll be trading the nzd/usd today.. you can trade either one of them but i prefer the nzd/usd.
Must be nice to make money and drink at the same time! :D
Music_Producer
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03-28-2007 03:49 PM
Originally Posted by OceanView (Post 3491043) Must be nice to make money and drink at the same time! :D
It sure is :D Got another POS re-quote while trading the nzd/usd.. this could have been an easy 15-18 pips :mad:
OceanView
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03-28-2007 03:51 PM
Originally Posted by Music_Producer (Post 3491207) It sure is :D Got another POS re-quote while trading the nzd/usd.. this could have been an easy 15-18 pips :mad:
OandA had a 20 point spread. How the heck can anyone make money through them?
Music_Producer
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03-28-2007 04:15 PM
Originally Posted by OceanView (Post 3491214) OandA had a 20 point spread. How the heck can anyone make money through them?
You can't.. that's why I was a little surprised when you said that you were able to make money using my news strategy with Oanda. Probably on the demo, but never on the real. Oanda sucks for news trading. Almost all brokers suck for news trading.. the ones with xed spreads will either never execute your order.. or will give you 'slippage' i.e. if you press 'buy' when nzd/usd was at 0.7100.. they will execute it at 0.7120 or even higher. So while Oanda gives you instant execution they inate the spreads.
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The only way to news trade is to switch to an ECN like Currenex or FXAll.. but you need a minimum of 50-75 k to start. Although nathan mentioned that 25 k can get you a currenex account with ODL..
nhallmark
03-28-2007 04:26 PM
I just stayed out of NZD and Im glad I did. It kept gapping up and down 20 pips, like 3-4 times...Ive never seen that happen before. Hopefully tomorrow will be better. On friday, we have US PCE and CAD GDP coming out at the same time...which one are you guys going to trade? Im thinking the Canadian report might be better because their trades are a lot smoother than the US reports lately...although Im not sure what pair to trade because USD/CAD is out of the question.
OceanView
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03-28-2007 05:37 PM
Originally Posted by Music_Producer (Post 3491291) You can't.. that's why I was a little surprised when you said that you were able to make money using my news strategy with Oanda. Probably on the demo, but never on the real. Oanda sucks for news trading. Almost all brokers suck for news trading.. the ones with xed spreads will either never execute your order.. or will give you 'slippage' i.e. if you press 'buy' when nzd/usd was at 0.7100.. they will execute it at 0.7120 or even higher. So while Oanda gives you instant execution they inate the spreads. The only way to news trade is to switch to an ECN like Currenex or FXAll.. but you need a minimum of 50-75 k to start. Although nathan mentioned that 25 k can get you a currenex account with ODL..
It must have been beginer's luck or something :p What does ECN and ODL stand for? I'm still a noob :confused:
Music_Producer
Quote:
03-28-2007 08:55 PM
Originally Posted by OceanView (Post 3491502) It must have been beginer's luck or something :p What does ECN and ODL stand for? I'm still a noob :confused:
Haha, no it's because trading on a demo account is completely different than trading on a real account. I dare you to open a trade (based on whatever technical strategy) of 100,000 units.. and set a stop loss 40-60 pips away. The minute it starts dropping towards your stop loss.. you'll be sweating away and will most probably close your position at a loss. If not, you will probably remove the stop loss and let it sink further.. sometimes that leads to a complete
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wipe-out. On a demo there's no such stress.. I could open a 10 million unit position (buy or sell) and not care about it. If i make a prot, i'll be thinking 'Oh wow, this is so easy' but if i make a loss i won't care.. because its not real money. ODL is simply a broker.. they offer various platforms such as Currenex, FXall, etc. ECN is electronic communications network. Basically ECN platforms offer pip spreads like 0 or 1.. there are no 're-quotes' because there is no dealing desk. Market makers are brokers such as Oanda, CMC Markets, etc.. when we place a trade.. it has to pass through them, and onward to the interbank market. Market makers have the ability to re-quote, trade against us, etc However, I have experienced slippage on an ECN (MB Trading) Of course, this *could* be because i was trying out a mini account.. but nevertheless.. I never signed up with MB trading.
OceanView
03-28-2007 09:45 PM
So for Thursday morning trade, it looks like 3 items will be announced simultaneously. Of these which numbers will have the most affect on the USD? Which should I base my trading decision on or should I stay out if the one of the announcement is better than expected and one of the others is worse than expected? 1. GDP Annualized q/q (r) 2. GDP Deator Annualized q/q (r) 3. Unemployment Claims EDIT: Thanks for the explanation MP!
Music_Producer
03-29-2007 04:22 AM
I would say that the GDP report is more important.. especially right now since everyone is watching the US economy .. with its dire factory orders report, lagging home sales, etc.. GDP should be a good indicator. Its expected at 2.2% (not the gdp deator.. just the gdp) Unemployment report is relatively less important compared to gdp.. if gdp doesn't deviate though.. and unemployment rate deviates by a huge margin.. then it might affect the markets. I hope GDP deviates quite a bit so we can have a good trade. There's also te NZD trade later on in the evening. Btw, when I talk about the differences between demo and real trading.. I know I usually portray the worst case scenario.. so don't think I'm discouraging anyone from trying out their strategies from a demo acct to a real account. I'm just offering a little bit of real world experience, and I would rather caution you all against trading recklessly so you can preserve your funds. I wouldn't act like a subprime mortgage lender :p You know, the type that goes "Oh yeah yeah, go ahead.. get this loan.. your rate will be xed at 8% for two years.. and then you can always sell your house (yeah right sucker.. you'll be paying 14% after 2 years buhahahaha)" Lol. Regarding that, I feel bad for the folks who got those crazy loans.. but what the hell were they thinking?? I think both the lenders AND the borrowers are at fault here.. the borrowers even more so .. for speculating wildly. For god's sake.. it's your house we're talking about!
nhallmark
03-29-2007 05:33 AM
I got 5 pips on US GDP...my response time went up to like 2118ms about 5 seconds before the report....at
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least I got in and out though.
Music_Producer
03-29-2007 05:38 AM
10 pips on GDP report.. came out better than expected (surprisingly) Next will be NZD GDP.
Music_Producer
Quote:
03-29-2007 05:44 AM
Originally Posted by nhallmark (Post 3492811) I got 5 pips on US GDP...my response time went up to like 2118ms about 5 seconds before the report....at least I got in and out though.
Ouch! If I see my response time shoot up to 700 ms or so .. about a few seconds before a trade.. I just let it go.. I never know if I'm going to get a re-quote or slippage :eek: Nathan, you have guts!
OceanView
How did you guys do on the GDP? Got 9 pips out of the GDP report using OandA. Struggling with the platform still. EDIT: Slow at posting too!
03-29-2007 05:57 AM
Music_Producer
03-29-2007 06:04 AM
This one seems like it took a little time to digest.. gbp/usd went down by 25-30 more pips after a few minutes.
nhallmark
yeah..I wish I would have held on. oh well.
03-29-2007 07:18 AM
Hey, we should have our house sold in the next 3 months, so when I get that equity, Im going to try out that currenex thing with ODL(on a demo rst, of course) and if it doesnt work I can always pull my money out, but if it does work then damn...we might have found a long term solution even though the barrier to entry is quite high. Either way, I'll let you guys know how it goes when I do it.
~Shard~
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03-29-2007 08:39 AM
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yeah..I wish I would have held on. oh well. Hey, we should have our house sold in the next 3 months, so when I get that equity, Im going to try out that currenex thing with ODL(on a demo rst, of course) and if it doesnt work I can always pull my money out, but if it does work then damn...we might have found a long term solution even though the barrier to entry is quite high. Either way, I'll let you guys know how it goes when I do it.
Please do - I honestly have no issues with funding a $25K account as long as it's worth it. I just dumped $25K into one stock today actually, so if better growth opportunities exist elsewhere (i.e. with ODL) then I'll easily shift my funds appropriately. :cool: As for this morning, I made 10 pips as well on shorting the EURUSD. For some reason I just didn't feel good about the GBPUSD this morning - gotta go with your gut sometimes. ;) :cool: I'm at work though, so no more trading for me until tomrorow. :( Good luck to everyone else though! :D
OceanView
Quote:
03-29-2007 10:19 AM
Originally Posted by nhallmark (Post 3493063) yeah..I wish I would have held on. oh well. Hey, we should have our house sold in the next 3 months, so when I get that equity, Im going to try out that currenex thing with ODL(on a demo rst, of course) and if it doesnt work I can always pull my money out, but if it does work then damn...we might have found a long term solution even though the barrier to entry is quite high. Either way, I'll let you guys know how it goes when I do it.
I hope currenex is the answer. There must be an easier way to trade. Let us know how it goes. Oh and good luck on selling the house.
Music_Producer
Quote:
03-29-2007 01:20 PM
Originally Posted by ~Shard~ (Post 3493320) As for this morning, I made 10 pips as well on shorting the EURUSD. For some reason I just didn't feel good about the GBPUSD this morning - gotta go with your gut sometimes. ;) :cool:
I wanted to try out eur/usd too.. gbp/usd seemed to be under a lot of pressure (well, to go upwards that is) Nathan, I can see you selling your house and then the next day you're in your car with your laptop, trading :p
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nhallmark
03-29-2007 03:47 PM
I didn't trade NZD GDP because I didn't think a 0.1% deviation would do much...I guess I was wrong. How did you guys do?
Music_Producer
03-29-2007 03:52 PM
Again a god damn ghEFG$#@#$$### requote!!!!!!!!!!!! It shows my sell order at 0.7154.. argghhhhh.. could have made a good 35 pips!!! :mad: :mad: Piece of crap CMC dealing desk is cancelling every trade!
OceanView
Quote:
03-29-2007 03:53 PM
Originally Posted by nhallmark (Post 3494890) I didn't trade NZD GDP because I didn't think a 0.1% deviation would do much...I guess I was wrong. How did you guys do?
Lost 20 pips but that was due to the spread on OandA :mad: . But its ok since this is a demo account :p Trade the news is pretty good. Used it for the rst time today on audio. It's amazing how fast people react to news and submit their orders. Does your platform allow both buy and sell windows open at the same time? EDIT: I am still in the trade and now I am making up my pips. Positive 3 pips so far!!
Music_Producer
Quote:
03-29-2007 03:59 PM
Originally Posted by OceanView (Post 3494909) Lost 20 pips but that was due to the spread on OandA :mad: . But its ok since this is a demo account :p Trade the news is pretty good. Used it for the rst time today on audio. It's amazing how fast people react to news and submit their orders. Does your platform allow both buy and sell windows open at the same time? EDIT: I am still in the trade and now I am making up my pips. Positive 3 pips so far!!
I know, its crazy how fast reaction is to news.. but remember.. that the professionals are getting the news 2
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seconds before we do.. so they're still kinda slow ;) (compared to us) No, the cmc platform does not allow 2 windows open at the same time.. only one window has the buy/sell section. I've taken most of my money out though.. in the process of nding another broker. There's no sense in wasting time anymore.

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nhallmark
03-29-2007 04:01 PM
Oceanview, CMC has one window with buy/sell buttons in the same window...but the reason people are reacting so fast to the news is because the big players are using bloomberg($1700/month) and their news is 2-3 seconds faster than TradeTheNews. We've got JPY CPI in 30 minutes...are you guys trading the core CPI # or the core Tokyo CPI #? Im not sure which one I should be paying attention to.
OceanView
Thanks for the info guys. Looks like Core CPI is more important on the JPY. If both numbers come in lower than expected than it would be good. If they are contradictory then I may just sit it out and watch. What do you think MP?
03-29-2007 04:04 PM
Music_Producer
03-29-2007 04:09 PM
I would say the core Tokyo cpi is more important.. (just like chicago reports) but if the overall core cpi conicts with tokyo core cpi.. watch out. I'm trading a very small lot .. well.. hypothetically trading since I know I'll get a bloody requote!
OceanView
Made 3 pips on the JPY CPI report. Would have made more if OandA didn't charge me 15 pips! :mad: Oh well, I hope we can nd a good platform to trade on. I need to make more pips and buy a new :apple: :) How did everyone else do?
03-29-2007 04:38 PM
nhallmark
03-29-2007 04:55 PM
I didn't trade JPY CPI...only the y/y deviated. I made a whole 2 pips on JPY Industrial Production though :p Music_Producer, let us know if you come across a good broker...I get the feeling CMC is doing something with the response time because that issue just started this week...Ive never had that problem before(probably because I made 1/2 my account last week)
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~Shard~
03-29-2007 05:05 PM
Yeah, I'd like to know as well. I'm willing to switch from CMC as well if there is a better alternative out there. I saw an ad on BNN today (Business News Network, Canada's version of BloombergTV) for "Interactive Brokers", but I have not looked into them at all yet. Going with one of these more "professional" places though might be the best solution though, even if you do have to pony up $25K or $50K for starters. If it's worth it, I'm game. :cool:
Music_Producer
03-29-2007 05:40 PM
I didn't trade the JPY report.. it looked like usd/jpy spiked before the news.. cpi was disappointing though.. this should imply that carry trades will be stronger. My AUD/JPY position has been open since the last 3 or more months.. it's gone through some crazy deviation (from -400 pips to currently.. -40 pips) :p Nathan, ocean, shard.. I'll let you all know how my experiences with other brokers work out. Right now I'm supposed to get a demo of currenex from ODL, AaronFX, PFG and Man Financial.
Music_Producer
03-29-2007 06:32 PM
Just got a Wii :D This thing is sweet! So much fun.. now if only i could use the remote to hit 'buy' or 'sell' while doing forex! Lol
OceanView
Quote:
03-29-2007 08:09 PM
Originally Posted by Music_Producer (Post 3495322) Just got a Wii :D This thing is sweet! So much fun.. now if only i could use the remote to hit 'buy' or 'sell' while doing forex! Lol
Yeah, Wii's are pretty sweet. Good exercise indoors. I want a PS3, the graphics look so clean and the detail is amazing.
Music_Producer
Quote:
03-30-2007 05:03 AM
Originally Posted by OceanView (Post 3495540) Yeah, Wii's are pretty sweet. Good exercise indoors. I want a PS3, the graphics look so clean and the detail is amazing.
I wish there was a unit that had both.. the fun features of the wii, and the graphics of the ps3. Nathan, I don't know if i answered a question that you posted earlier.. but if you're trading canadian gdp..
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1/15/08 8:31 PM
trade the eur/cad, that should be a good pair for that report.
Music_Producer
13 pips on GBP/USD trade (US reports came out slightly better than expected)
03-30-2007 05:35 AM
~Shard~
03-30-2007 05:35 AM
No trade for me this morning. I was all ready to go, but GBPUSD didn't move a heck of a lot (9584 down to 9578) nor did USDCAD - as you said Music_Producer, perhaps EURCAD would have been a better pair to watch. Ah well, there will be more trades next week... :cool:
~Shard~
Quote:
03-30-2007 05:37 AM
Originally Posted by Music_Producer (Post 3496368) 13 pips on GBP/USD trade (US reports came out slightly better than expected)
Hey, how did you get 13 pips?! I swear I didn't even see the pair move that much! :p ;) :D Regardless, good work! :)
Music_Producer
Quote:
03-30-2007 06:27 AM
Originally Posted by ~Shard~ (Post 3496377) Hey, how did you get 13 pips?! I swear I didn't even see the pair move that much! :p ;) :D Regardless, good work! :)
I got in at 1.9585 and got out at 1.9572. not on the rst spike.. but a later one. :D In fact, after I got out it dipped further.. and after a few minutes it went as low as 1.9556 (or lower.. i stopped paying attention after that because i was a little mad :p ) Canadians don't care about their gdp that much, so i usually never trade that :p :D
~Shard~
Quote:
03-30-2007 06:44 AM
Ah, okay, that makes - I thought you were the initial spike like usual, and as I said, I didn't see Originally Posted sense by Music_Producer (Post trading 3496511) a 13Ipip there!and :p ;)got :D out at 1.9572. not on the rst spike.. but a later one. :D In fact, after I got gotspread in at 1.9585 out it dipped further.. and after a few minutes it went as low as 1.9556 (or lower.. i stopped paying attention after that because i was a little mad :p ) Quote:
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Originally Posted by Music_Producer (Post 3496511) Canadians don't care about their gdp that much, so i usually never trade that :p :D
Yeah, we're a pretty carefree bunch up here... :D
Music_Producer
Quote:
03-30-2007 06:49 AM
Originally Posted by ~Shard~ (Post 3496554) Yeah, we're a pretty carefree bunch up here... :D
You have to be.. with all those indoor pools :D Chicago pmi came out earlier than 6.45 am.. came out 2-3 minutes early.. caught me by surprise.. so I missed that one. Ahh, think I've made enough for today. Have a good weekend everyone :) ps - gbp looks very bullish - impressive ght in spite of all the USD positive reports.
~Shard~
Haha - indoor pools are by no means the norm around here... ;)
03-30-2007 07:41 AM
Well, I'm at work now so no more trades this week. I'll have to check the calendar to see what to watch for next week... :cool:
nhallmark
03-30-2007 07:47 AM
I just got my internet back...needless to say I didn't get to trade this morning. We had a bad storm last night and everyone in our area(even starbucks!) got taken ofine. Music_Producer, I was looking at EUR/CAD last night and I was going to try and use my super powers to trade the CAD GDP on EUR/CAD and the US PCE on GBP/USD at the same time :p ...good thing my internet went out or I'd probably be in a loss right now from getting confused. Hopefully next week will be better.
~Shard~
Quote:
03-30-2007 09:19 AM
Originally Posted by nhallmark (Post 3496727) I just got my internet back...needless to say I didn't get to trade this morning. We had a bad storm last night and everyone in our area(even starbucks!) got taken ofine. Music_Producer, I was looking at EUR/CAD last night and I was going to try and use my super powers to trade the CAD GDP on EUR/CAD and the US PCE on GBP/USD at the same time :p
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...good thing my internet went out or I'd probably be in a loss right now from getting confused. Hopefully next week will be better.
Yeah, it's usually best to focus just on one pair. I've tried trading a couple pairs simultaneously, and although it's worked a couple times, it denitely isn't as effective in the long run - After all, no one's reexes are that quick! ;) :D
Music_Producer
Quote:
03-30-2007 08:53 PM
Originally Posted by nhallmark (Post 3496727) I just got my internet back...needless to say I didn't get to trade this morning. We had a bad storm last night and everyone in our area(even starbucks!) got taken ofine. Music_Producer, I was looking at EUR/CAD last night and I was going to try and use my super powers to trade the CAD GDP on EUR/CAD and the US PCE on GBP/USD at the same time :p ...good thing my internet went out or I'd probably be in a loss right now from getting confused. Hopefully next week will be better.
I was wondering where you disappeared.. assumed that you probably overslept. Too bad your superpowers couldn't get your internet back up in time for the trades :p You didn't miss much though. As I posted earlier.. that the gbp seemed to show a lot of resistance to selling.. in spite of positive US reports.. so before going to sleep (8 am) I bought a very small lot of gbp/usd, expecting it go up maybe 20-25 pips. I woke up in the afternoon and discovered that it had gone up more than 100 pips! :eek: I quickly closed my position and wondered what the hell was going on. I knew there were no economic reports after all the US reports were done and I thought maybe all the technical stars aligned (super MACDs!).. but apparently, there were rumors that the US is going to attack Iran and something about US and China trade issues.. I don't remember exactly what it was.. but quite a few reasons for everyone to sell the dollar. This was one of those trades where I just got in for the heck of it.. no stop losses nothing.. it could have gone for a 100 pip loss as well .. but now I wish i had bought 1,000,000 units :D
OceanView
Wow! that takes B@lls MP!. Has anyone traded the CNY? Any luck with it?
03-30-2007 10:50 PM
nhallmark
made 11 pips on AUD retail sales...did you guys trade it?
04-01-2007 06:32 PM
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~Shard~
Great start to the week! Traded from 8092 to 8112 for a nice 20 pips! :D Good trade as well nathan! :cool:
04-01-2007 06:34 PM
Music_Producer
04-01-2007 06:40 PM
14 pips on aussie trade.. looks like Shard beat us by quite a bit! *Great* start to the week (hint hint!) :D
nhallmark
04-01-2007 06:41 PM
lol...I looked at another thread I posted in and my name was "Oh no, it's nhallmark" (f*ckers :p )
~Shard~
Quote:
04-01-2007 06:48 PM
Originally Posted by Music_Producer (Post 3504245) 14 pips on aussie trade.. looks like Shard beat us by quite a bit! *Great* start to the week (hint hint!) :D
Yeah, no complaints at all! I see it's climbing even higher now, but I have my pips so I'm happy. :) "Great" job Muisc_Producer! ;) :D
Music_Producer
Quote:
04-01-2007 06:53 PM
Originally Posted by nhallmark (Post 3504251) lol...I looked at another thread I posted in and my name was "Oh no, it's nhallmark" (f*ckers :p )
Lol.. that's probably cos you're lurking around at odd hours of the night, trading :p I may be great, but you can't argue with Shard! PS - i don't know if you guys like Genesis.. but I tried to get tickets today for the hollywood bowl show.. ticketmaster sucks!!! All I was getting was tickets for rows so far off.. I might as well just stand in the parking lot!
~Shard~
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04-01-2007 07:04 PM
Originally Posted by Music_Producer (Post 3504290) I may be great, but you can't argue with Shard!
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Damn right! ;) :D
Quote:
Originally Posted by Music_Producer (Post 3504290) PS - i don't know if you guys like Genesis.. but I tried to get tickets today for the hollywood bowl show.. ticketmaster sucks!!! All I was getting was tickets for rows so far off.. I might as well just stand in the parking lot!
I've never used TicketMaster but I've heard similar stories to yours. As for Genesis, I didn't realize they were still performing! I thought perhaps Phil was just doing his own thing... I wouldn't mind seeing them live... :cool:
nhallmark
Quote:
04-01-2007 07:13 PM
Originally Posted by Music_Producer (Post 3504290) PS - i don't know if you guys like Genesis.. but I tried to get tickets today for the hollywood bowl show.. ticketmaster sucks!!! All I was getting was tickets for rows so far off.. I might as well just stand in the parking lot!
Quote:
Originally Posted by ~Shard~ (Post 3504312) I've never used TicketMaster but I've heard similar stories to yours. As for Genesis, I didn't realize they were still performing! I thought perhaps Phil was just doing his own thing... I wouldn't mind seeing them live... :cool:
err...im not that old :cool: Its looking like I might get to test my "special powers" after all...on thursday, we've got the CAD Employment Change and the UK Interest Rate Decision at the same time...hmm...I'll give it some more thought before thursday...Im not sure how to manage that yet.
~Shard~
Quote:
04-01-2007 07:16 PM
Originally Posted by nhallmark (Post 3504332) err...im not that old :cool:
You don't have to be old to appreciate good music and talented musicians... ;) :cool:
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nhallmark
04-01-2007 07:33 PM
haha...I wasn't meaning anything about genesis...I was just saying Im too young to remember them and Ive never been exposed to any of phil collins' work.
~Shard~
Quote:
04-01-2007 07:38 PM
Originally Posted by nhallmark (Post 3504395) haha...I wasn't meaning anything about genesis...I was just saying Im too young to remember them and Ive never been exposed to any of phil collins' work.
Haha, no worries, just having some fun with ya... ;)
nhallmark
Quote:
04-01-2007 08:03 PM
Originally Posted by ~Shard~ (Post 3504403) Haha, no worries, just having some fun with ya... ;)
OK...just making sure I didn't offend anyone :) Hey, Music_Producer, I nally got the full version of reason on friday...I've been playing with it all weekend...its nice to nally get some different sounds. Even the stock patches aren't bad(mainly the chior ones) Here's my question though :p , I was borrowing a $100 wal-mart yamaha keyboard to use as a controller...I had to give it back, so Im thinking, until I can afford a keyboard...I might buy one of those m-audio midi controllers. Do you have any experience with those? Also, Im having trouble with the latency...its about 100ms off(rough estimate). Is there somewhere in the settings to x that? Im using an m-audio uno midi/usb as the input into the computer(midi on one end, usb on the other). Anyway...you can PM me if you need to so we dont take the thread off topic again.
OceanView
Looks like everyone has been making pips. Good going gang. I've been busy with selling my house. I've gotten an offer on it and looks like we are getting close to an agreement. That means the month of April will be busy for me. I gotta nd a place to move into and start packing :eek:
04-01-2007 09:46 PM
~Shard~
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1/15/08 8:31 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by OceanView (Post 3504649) Looks like everyone has been making pips. Good going gang. I've been busy with selling my house. I've gotten an offer on it and looks like we are getting close to an agreement. That means the month of April will be busy for me. I gotta nd a place to move into and start packing :eek:
Congratulations! Good luck and keep us posted. :)
nhallmark
Good luck, Oceanview...I'm in the same position right now ;) I stayed out on UK Manufacturing PMI...glad I did.
04-02-2007 01:38 AM
I looked up some genesis on itunes last night thinking "oh, ill know the songs once i hear them" because Ive heard so much about them before...well I didn't know any of the songs but what was weird is EVERY song I listened to...I could think of a song within the last 5 years that's a complete ripoff of a genesis song. :eek: I'll have to listen to them some more...thanks for turning me on to it. What's a good album to get?
nhallmark
I stayed out of ISM also...did you guys trade it?
04-02-2007 07:01 AM
Music_Producer
04-02-2007 07:06 AM
7 pips on GBP/USD.. additionally, gbp/usd had run up quite a bit during the european and US session.. if it shoots beyond 1.98.. I think the Feds will panic :rolleyes: I've kept repeating it so many times that we need to raise the interest rates. Screw the housing market.. that's going to plunge anyway.. we need to save the dollar at any cost before China switches from $ reserves to euros and pounds. Nathan, the latency is not dependent on the midi controller keyboard.. but on the interface and the software buffer settings. I'll PM you later today regarding that in detail, right now I'm just so sleepy.. so I'm heading off to bed.
OceanView
Quote:
04-02-2007 10:06 AM
Originally Posted by Music_Producer (Post 3505937) 7 pips on GBP/USD.. additionally, gbp/usd had run up quite a bit during the european and US session.. if it shoots beyond 1.98.. I think the Feds will panic :rolleyes: I've kept repeating it so many times that we need to raise the interest rates. Screw the housing market.. that's going to plunge anyway.. we need to save the dollar at any cost before China switches from $ reserves to euros
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and pounds.
WAIT TILL MY HOUSE CLOSES!!!! :eek: :D I am trying to get as much for my house as possible. I think I am at the top and hope that this is a good time to sell. I traded but lost 6 pips today. Made up some of it at the end when the market GBP started to go down. Not sure what the reason was as I didn't hear any announcements at the time.
Music_Producer
Quote:
04-02-2007 02:01 PM
Originally Posted by OceanView (Post 3506680) WAIT TILL MY HOUSE CLOSES!!!! :eek: :D I am trying to get as much for my house as possible. I think I am at the top and hope that this is a good time to sell. I traded but lost 6 pips today. Made up some of it at the end when the market GBP started to go down. Not sure what the reason was as I didn't hear any announcements at the time.
Don't worry, you'll be able to close your house! :) Right now's a good time, but 6 months ago was even better. The feds won't raise interest rates for the time being. GBP went down because it had gone up almost 100 pips throughout the UK and European session.. there had to be some prot taking eventually.

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~Shard~
04-02-2007 02:15 PM
I was thinking about buying some real estate in Las Vegas since they are phsyically running out of land and they are the fastest growing city in North America. Bad timing? :o ;) In general, interest rates going up means mortgage payments going up (in some cases depending on your plan) and/or people not being to afford mortgages as easily, right? Well, if you can afford the payments regardless and can write off all that interest on your taxes anyway, is it that big a deal? Just curious. :D
Music_Producer
Quote:
04-02-2007 02:47 PM
Originally Posted by ~Shard~ (Post 3507529) I was thinking about buying some real estate in Las Vegas since they are phsyically running out of land and they are the fastest growing city in North America. Bad timing? :o ;) In general, interest rates going up means mortgage payments going up (in some cases depending on your plan) and/or people not being to afford mortgages as easily, right? Well, if you can afford the payments regardless and can write off all that interest on your taxes anyway, is it that big a deal? Just curious. :D
Bad timing for Vegas right now.. they have the biggest number of foreclosures in the country currently. Give it a few months (although I've kept my target 2 years.. depends obviously on how the economy does and where the rates go) If people can afford mortgages, then interest rates make no difference to them if they absolutely *have* to purchase real estate. But the point is, why waste all that money in paying interest? My opinion is.. if rates go more than 5.5% then stash away all your loot in a bank account that gives you a 5.5% return.. real estate is not going to rise as long as rates are high. Then when the time comes.. you'll have enough cash to make a huge down payment and pay less interest as a result. The people who are in a x right now are the ones who rushed in to buy real estate thinking the boom will never end. Somehow, they expected that their $425,000 house will go up to $1 million in 2 years. Yeah, :rolleyes: So they took our ARMs with no down payment.. and now they're having a tough time paying their bills. Hence, always always assume the worst case scenario whenever you make an investment! That way, you can be covered if that scenario does come true.
~Shard~
Cool, thanks for the advice, I was not aware of the rate of foreclosures there!
04-02-2007 02:56 PM
So even though I personally might be able to afford a mortgage payment whether the interest rate is 5.25%,
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1.25% or 7.25%, it comes down to supply and demand in the end, and with higher rates, people won't be able to either afford their current homes, or will not buy a new home since, as you say, they can invest elsewhere as a more sensible investment. This will drive prices down, so I can swoop in at a later date and pick up a place for a song! ;) :D My questions were somewhat rheotrical, in that I don't see good things ahead for the US housing market in general as well, however Las Vegas specically intrigued me due to its special situation - again, the fastest growing city in North America and the fact that they are physically running out of land. That will have an impact on supply and demand as well in a few years when the pinch comes, I'd assume... Anywho, thanks again. :cool: Edit: Also, another factor I thought of was the baby boomers. Vegas seems like a good retirements destination, and you have all these baby boomers retiring soon, who have a ton of money and don't care how much things cost. Will they drive up the market in places like Vegas? I think people are underestimating the impact in general which the retiring baby boomers will have on things... health care would be another example...
Music_Producer
Quote:
04-02-2007 06:43 PM
Originally Posted by ~Shard~ (Post 3507701) Edit: Also, another factor I thought of was the baby boomers. Vegas seems like a good retirements destination, and you have all these baby boomers retiring soon, who have a ton of money and don't care how much things cost. Will they drive up the market in places like Vegas? I think people are underestimating the impact in general which the retiring baby boomers will have on things... health care would be another example...
Now that is an interesting question.. theoretically.. yes, they should be able to drive up the market in places like Vegas. You know, everytime I drive to Vegas.. I notice that there's so much damn land! When people think of Vegas, they think of the strip and a few places nearby.. but there's a lot of land surrounding the area. Another factor is, when these baby boomers retire.. who knows what the economy is going to be like? Will the interest rates be 1% or 15%? Will social security run out? Etc.. etc.. Of course, if you want to make an investment by all means, Vegas is a good choice.. but that's only if you're making a long term investment.. and not a speculative position. As always, I assume the worst case scenario.. so i'm just looking out for you :) PS - I tried out a Currenex demo account today. How is it? It's exciting.. using Oanda and CMC is like using a software synth and currenex is like a studio lled with luscious analog gear.. and wall to wall monster speakers!! :p It's scary though. I tried the australian trade balance on it today.. and it moved before the trade the news report came out :eek: But I got in anyway, I bought aud/usd.. nothing happened.. or so I thought.. so i hit 'buy' again. turns out that the rst trade was already executed. but my brain was so used to re-quotes or lags.. that i didn't think it went through :D Closing the position was just as fast. It happens as soon as you click.. period. So it's absolutely worth it to invest $50k minimum (or $25 k) to get a Currenex account .. *but* do NOT use trade the news with that! Use bloomberg or reuters.. if you're trading with that kind of money, it's stupid not to subscribe to a premium news service where speed is essential.
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I'm very, very impressed with currenex. Still in shock really Oh, and somewhere within the platform i can see the pricing feeds coming from bank of america, citibank, etc.. woo hoo :D Edit : minimum trading size is 1 million on currenex platform
~Shard~
Quote:
04-02-2007 06:57 PM
Originally Posted by Music_Producer (Post 3508331) Now that is an interesting question.. theoretically.. yes, they should be able to drive up the market in places like Vegas. You know, everytime I drive to Vegas.. I notice that there's so much damn land! When people think of Vegas, they think of the strip and a few places nearby.. but there's a lot of land surrounding the area. Another factor is, when these baby boomers retire.. who knows what the economy is going to be like? Will the interest rates be 1% or 15%? Will social security run out? Etc.. etc..
Yes, very good things to consider indeed. However with the land, looks may be deceiving. On one side you have Lake Mead and the Grand Canyon - no building. On another side, the National Parks - no building. On another side, mountains - no building. And some of that "open space"? - government-protected land not open for development. So, there isn't necessarily as much room as one might think....
Quote:
Originally Posted by Music_Producer (Post 3508331) Of course, if you want to make an investment by all means, Vegas is a good choice.. but that's only if you're making a long term investment.. and not a speculative position. As always, I assume the worst case scenario.. so i'm just looking out for you
No worries, I appreciate it! :)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Music_Producer (Post 3508331) PS - I tried out a Currenex demo account today. How is it? It's exciting.. using Oanda and CMC is like using a software synth and currenex is like a studio lled with luscious analog gear.. and wall to wall monster speakers!! :p
Oooh, tell me more... ;) :D

Quote:
Originally Posted by Music_Producer (Post 3508331) It's scary though. I tried the australian trade balance on it today.. and it moved before the trade the news report came out :eek: But I got in anyway, I bought aud/usd.. nothing happened.. or so I thought.. so i hit 'buy' again. turns out that the rst trade was already executed. but my brain was so
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used to re-quotes or lags.. that i didn't think it went through :D Closing the position was just as fast. It happens as soon as you click.. period. So it's absolutely worth it to invest $50k minimum (or $25 k) to get a Currenex account .. *but* do NOT use trade the news with that! Use bloomberg or reuters.. if you're trading with that kind of money, it's stupid not to subscribe to a premium news service where speed is essential. I'm very, very impressed with currenex. Still in shock really
Wow, that is impressive. Almost sounds a little too hardcore for myself though - I'd want to try out the demo account like you did rst I think!
Quote:
Originally Posted by Music_Producer (Post 3508331) Oh, and somewhere within the platform i can see the pricing feeds coming from bank of america, citibank, etc.. woo hoo :D
What do you mean by pricing feeds?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Music_Producer (Post 3508331) Edit : minimum trading size is 1 million on currenex platform
What's the leverage set to, or can you alter it? If it's 100:1 that's only $10,000 per trade which isn't too bad... ;) Well, I might just have to look into them a little more and see... thanks for sharing your experience! Also, I'm trying out a "technical trade" tonight. I took a short position on the AUDUSD. I waited for the news to come out and for the pair to settle down (not that it moved much) and entered @ 0.8164. I have a TP and SL set based, again, on my technicals, so we'll see what happens. ;) If I'm wrong, I won't lose much, so I'm treating this as an experiment. We'll see... :cool:
nhallmark
yeah, Im drooling to hear more about this currenex you speak of :)
04-02-2007 08:18 PM
I assume your trying out the different brokers you mentioned? Is there any difference so far?(from one broker to the next) I was reading on currenex's website and supposedly the white label version is java based and it runs through your browser...so, you already know the question :p ...does it work on a mac? I was trying to research it, but no luck...however, I did nd something talking about how currenex switched all their operations from solaris to ubuntu...so Im wondering if the real currenex(not white label) runs on linux? ...that would be a compromise at least. I would rather run linux than windows anyday :p
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...or I could just accept that it's a windows world and stop hoping and just use windows :(
~Shard~
04-02-2007 08:47 PM
Just closed my short AUDUSD position. My 89 and 200 SMA MACD crossover worked perfectly and I just got out at the 365 SMA @ 8147 which should prove to be a logical point of support. And even if it blows through that, well, I made my money so I'm happy - hindsight is always 20/20. ;) Mind you, if it does blow through that level, look out below! Hmm, but then RSI would be extremely oversold... so who knows... :o ;) Anyway, not too bad for an hour-and-a-half's worth of work! ;) :D :cool:
Music_Producer
04-03-2007 12:43 AM
Shard, by pricing feeds I mean.. if you want to make volume purchases.. for e.g. 10 million units - for hedging, and not trading news, etc.. then you can submit an offer, and then the platform gives you something like 250 seconds to wait for an acceptance of that offer from multiple banks (for the best price) It's cool to see all the major banks on that platform though.. you feel like small sh :p That's why they don't re-quote you.. because your 1 m trade is negligible compared to all the billion $ trades going on! Nathan, i tried out the demo from pfgforex, yes different brokers will probably offer different spreads, or minimum deposits but it seems like they are mostly similar. Yes, I tried loading it on the mac.. it installed ne, but there was trouble opening the platform :( Eventually i just ran it on parallels, the good thing is that there is no software to download, it's all Java based. Watch out for aussie interest rate decision tomorrow.. markets expect no change in rate.. but there is talk of a rate hike.. so if that happens.. aussie $ could go up (not by much though, because this expectation has kinda been priced in already)
~Shard~
04-03-2007 05:31 AM
Thanks for the clarication. :) And yes, I'll denitely be watching the AUD decision tomorrow after work...
OceanView
Quote:
04-03-2007 10:42 AM
Originally Posted by ~Shard~ (Post 3507529) I was thinking about buying some real estate in Las Vegas since they are phsyically running out of land and they are the fastest growing city in North America. Bad timing? :o ;) In general, interest rates going up means mortgage payments going up (in some cases depending on your plan) and/or people not being to afford mortgages as easily, right? Well, if you can afford the payments regardless and can write off all that interest on your taxes anyway, is it that big a deal? Just curious. :D
Just saw these posts on Vegas and had to make a few comments as I do have a some knowledge there. Vegas is pretty much at the bottom of the housing market as I see it. Many of the home buyers of the past
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were speculators that wanted to cash in on the rising housing prices. They just were not fast enough to get out in time. As a result many of the homes have dropped in value by 10-15% since the highs of last year. Many of the home builders are offering incentives. From what I have seen, the market is not as bad as in Florida but comparable to Arizona. MP stated that there are lots of land on the drive into Vegas, yes there is but and this is a big but, all that land is owned by the BLM (Federal Government). There is a State law called Burton-Santini act that will only allow a very small percentage (I think it was 3%-5%) release of federal land per year. This is to maintain market pricing. So all that land will not be released for a long time. That is why the home builders were buying every parcel they could get a hold of and land bank for future housing sites. The future will depend on what the Feds do with the interest rates. Vegas is the fastest growing city in the US so there has to be a place for people to stay. Water is also a big concern for Vegas but that's another story.
OceanView
SO for Currenex there are 2 types of accounts? White and other? And the minimum to open is $50K and $25K ?
04-03-2007 10:48 AM
~Shard~
Quote:
04-03-2007 12:31 PM
Originally Posted by OceanView (Post 3510579) Just saw these posts on Vegas and had to make a few comments as I do have a some knowledge there. Vegas is pretty much at the bottom of the housing market as I see it. Many of the home buyers of the past were speculators that wanted to cash in on the rising housing prices. They just were not fast enough to get out in time. As a result many of the homes have dropped in value by 10-15% since the highs of last year. Many of the home builders are offering incentives. From what I have seen, the market is not as bad as in Florida but comparable to Arizona. MP stated that there are lots of land on the drive into Vegas, yes there is but and this is a big but, all that land is owned by the BLM (Federal Government). There is a State law called Burton-Santini act that will only allow a very small percentage (I think it was 3%-5%) release of federal land per year. This is to maintain market pricing. So all that land will not be released for a long time. That is why the home builders were buying every parcel they could get a hold of and land bank for future housing sites. The future will depend on what the Feds do with the interest rates. Vegas is the fastest growing city in the US so there has to be a place for people to stay. Water is also a big concern for Vegas but that's another story.
Thanks for your comments OceanView, I appreciate it. Saying that Vegas is at the bottom of the housing market is more in line with my initial thoughts, in terms of there being some opportunities there to possibly take advantage of some good deals due to falling prices. Still sounds like it!s not the healthiest market though... As for the land, yes, I commented on it above as well in one of my replies. Land is in short supply there for such a fast-growing city! Interest rates will no doubt have a huge impact I!ll have to watch for that. As for the water, I!ve heard all
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sorts of stories. They range from Vegas running out of water by 2020 and needing to call on Colorado (or wherever) for support, to statements saying that Vegas has already run out of water. ;) Yes, this is obviously a concern, but realistically, the US is not going to let an American city (let alone a city like Vegas!) run out of water and do nothing about it.
Music_Producer
04-03-2007 04:33 PM
30 pips on the AUD interest rate decision.. rates stayed the same, and aud/usd dropped (since it had already risen up so much since the last week) Excellent trade :D
nhallmark
damn!!!! I just made half my account on the no hike :D :D It gapped down on CMC and I somehow got in before the gap...I am so f*cking happy!!!:D Edit: It was 43 pips that I made but I had my leverage maxed out!!
04-03-2007 04:34 PM
Music_Producer
Quote:
04-03-2007 04:37 PM
Originally Posted by nhallmark (Post 3511781) damn!!!! I just made half my account on the no hike :D :D It gapped down on CMC and I somehow got in before the gap...I am so f*cking happy!!!:D Edit: It was 43 pips that I made but I had my leverage maxed out!!
Sweet!! So where should we go party? :p Now ,imagine if we traded on a currenex account with 10 m units. :D :eek:
OceanView
Quote:
04-03-2007 04:44 PM
Originally Posted by nhallmark (Post 3511781) damn!!!! I just made half my account on the no hike :D :D It gapped down on CMC and I somehow got in before the gap...I am so f*cking happy!!!:D Edit: It was 43 pips that I made but I had my leverage maxed out!!
Good for you Nathan!!! You must be stoked!
OceanView
04-03-2007 04:45 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Music_Producer (Post 3511792) Sweet!! So where should we go party? :p Now ,imagine if we traded on a currenex account with 10 m units. :D :eek:
How do you like the Currenex account so far? Is it that much better now that your in the big leagues? :p By the way, can you see the chart moving before Trade the news announces ? What is the shortest interval by the way? 1 sec? I made 15 pips. Got out too early.
nhallmark
Quote:
04-03-2007 04:52 PM
Originally Posted by Music_Producer (Post 3511792) Sweet!! So where should we go party? :p Now ,imagine if we traded on a currenex account with 10 m units. :D :eek:
lol...hmm, 10m units would equal, let's see...$43k in 30 seconds. Im in :D About currenex, what's the leverage they give you? Im sure its different for each broker, but what is it with the broker your using? Oh and good job, OceanView! ...you'll get used to it the more you trade. When I was starting out back in december, I would make 4 pips here and 7 pips there while MP was making 25-30. ...and my rst interest rate anouncement(UK in january), I only made 9 pips(on a 120 pip move). So just keep doing it...15 pips is still damn good!
Music_Producer
1 Attachment(s)
04-03-2007 05:13 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nhallmark (Post 3511839) lol...hmm, 10m units would equal, let's see...$43k in 30 seconds. Im in :D About currenex, what's the leverage they give you? Im sure its different for each broker, but what is it with the broker your using? Oh and good job, OceanView! ...you'll get used to it the more you trade. When I was starting out back in december, I would make 4 pips here and 7 pips there while MP was making 25-30. ...and my rst interest rate anouncement(UK in january), I only made 9 pips(on a 120 pip move). So just keep doing it...15 pips is still damn good!
Yeah, now nathan beats me.. he makes 25 pips while I make 7 pips :D Yeah Ocean.. 15 pips is very good.. considering there was probably a spread on Oanda's platform. Regarding leverage.. i didn't see that mentioned anywhere but i think its probably 100:1. I'll ask them and let you know. Also, I never use the charts, but i'll open them up and check what kind of intervals they offer. Check this keyboard that Currenex offers on requests Attachment 71579 Oddly enough though, there isn't one click execution using this keyboard.. you have to hit the 'submit' key after hitting buy or sell. This is to prevent any accidental trade execution (yeah, like i'm gonna hit buy or sell accidentally!) There must be a way to circumvent this though.
OceanView
04-03-2007 08:30 PM
Someday I want to be like you guys making the big bucks! :) I'm still on a demo account so I am not sure if I can make money trading the news. Hopefully I will have enough to open a Currenex account someday and trade in the big league and trade for real.:rolleyes: The keypad would be useful if you used both hands, maybe you could use it in conjunction with the on screen program (just guessing here).
nhallmark
No trade on UK Services PMI.
04-04-2007 01:37 AM
Im worried that Im going to start getting more requotes now, after yesterday because just now my response time was bouncing between 300-900ms. It hasnt been that bad for a few days...its funny how the platform mysteriously runs slower when you make money. Wait, let me guess...its because my PC just can't handle all the cash :p Hopefully it will be managable until I can get currenex. Music_Producer, not to be rude, but what's the biggest lot size you traded at CMC without a requote? Just wondering because Im hoping I can get my CMC account to at least 10k before going with currenex.
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OceanView
Made 5 pips on the ADP non farm employment. OandA was charging 15 pips! :mad:
04-04-2007 05:20 AM
nhallmark
Good job, OceanView!
04-04-2007 05:31 AM
I personally didn't trade it because I didn't think it was that big of a deviation. Did you trade EUR/USD or GBP/USD?
nhallmark
04-04-2007 06:02 AM
Hey, Music_Producer, don't go to sleep yet....Apple just released the 8 core Mac Pro!!!:D :D Damn, I just need a few more interest rate decisions and I'll have enough..lol :p
OceanView
WooHoo!! I made 2 pips on the USD non Manufaturing Index!!! LOL :p Got in late and rode it out till I got positive.
04-04-2007 07:07 AM
OceanView
Quote:
04-04-2007 07:08 AM
Originally Posted by nhallmark (Post 3513293) Hey, Music_Producer, don't go to sleep yet....Apple just released the 8 core Mac Pro!!!:D :D Damn, I just need a few more interest rate decisions and I'll have enough..lol :p
Really?! Wow!, I guess I am not gonna buy that Dell I was about to pull the trigger on. I traded the GBP/USB by the way.
nhallmark
Quote:
04-04-2007 07:32 AM
You Originally sure it wasn't the GBP/Firewire..lol(GBP/USB...get Posted by OceanView (Post 3513632) it? haha, ok im a dork:p ) Really?! I was asking because it seems like buy GBP/USD hasnt been producing good moves Wow!, I guess I am not gonna that Dell I was about to pull the trigger on. like it used to and I was wondering if EUR/USD was any better because I haven't been watching it. I traded the GBP/USB by the way. Why were you going to buy a dell? for trading? I would just get an intel mac and run parallels or boot
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camp...that way you get a new mac and you're not forced to sit through the torture of looking at that dell logo all day like I am :p
OceanView
Quote:
04-04-2007 09:46 AM
Originally Posted by nhallmark (Post 3513716) You sure it wasn't the GBP/Firewire..lol(GBP/USB...get it? haha, ok im a dork:p ) I was asking because it seems like GBP/USD hasnt been producing good moves like it used to and I was wondering if EUR/USD was any better because I haven't been watching it. Why were you going to buy a dell? for trading? I would just get an intel mac and run parallels or boot camp...that way you get a new mac and you're not forced to sit through the torture of looking at that dell logo all day like I am :p
Yes the GBP/USD has not been as active but I guess I have been getting lucky. I was thinking about a Dell because I was able to get a good deal on a new C2D 2.13Ghz desktop with a 24" monitor for around $1600 including shipping and tax. My HP desktop is about 5 years old and I wanted something a bit faster for trading. I am also considering buying a MacBookPro 2.13GHZ and using it at home and work running Vista on Bootcamp 1.2. I can only get one of these at this time and maybe the other later this year. Do you have any advice? EDIT: The Dell deal is over now, I guess everybody used the code so the the price is back up to $1925 including tax and shipping. MBP looks more interesting....
OceanView
04-04-2007 10:32 AM
Looking at tomorrow's trades, it looks like there will be 3 important announcements at the same time. The CAD Employment Change, CAD Unemployment rate and the GBP Interest rate statement. Which is the more important trade here? I am thinking the interest rate is but if the rate is unchanged as expected, it may not move as much as the CAD?
~Shard~
Quote:
04-04-2007 12:34 PM
Originally Posted by OceanView (Post 3513628) WooHoo!! I made 2 pips on the USD non Manufaturing Index!!! LOL :p Got in late and rode it out till I got positive.
Great job, but just a word of constructive criticism for you. If a trade ever goes bad, or you end up "missing the boat", you have to be able to realize it might be in your best interests just to take a loss as opposed to "riding things out". Many people have a psychological barrier whereby they feel they must always at least
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break even, but the markets don't know that and they don't care. :cool: If you ever guess wrong, get in late, etc. be mindful and open to the idea that you may need to take a loss to prevent a larger loss down the road. If you are trading the news, then trade the news - get in, get out - don't trade the movement afterwards, hoping it will go in one direction or another because then you are not trading the news, you're trading on speculation and might as well put your money on RED at the roulette table simply because BLACK has hit the past 4 spins. :p ;) have a plan and stick to it. Forex trading takes a lot of discipline. :cool: Not trying to be hard on you, just offering some advice to be of help to you.
Quote:
Originally Posted by OceanView (Post 3514488) Looking at tomorrow's trades, it looks like there will be 3 important announcements at the same time. The CAD Employment Change, CAD Unemployment rate and the GBP Interest rate statement. Which is the more important trade here? I am thinking the interest rate is but if the rate is unchanged as expected, it may not move as much as the CAD?
Interest rate decisions are always the most important and can trigger the biggest moves. I personally don't think much will happen but you should be ready to trade in case there is a surprise. Otherwise, yes, the Canadian data is important as well so keep your eye on it. I would not recommend trying to trade both announcements though at the same time. Unless of course the CAD data is horrible and the BoE decides to hike rates by 50 bps - then I might consider buying some GBPCAD... :p ;) :D :cool:
~Shard~
04-04-2007 12:38 PM
Oh yeah, I made 18 pips this morning on GBPUSD, after the ADP report actually. I had a feeling there would be a slight correction, so I bought at 9735 and put a TP in at 9753 which appeared to be a level of some resistance. The pair blew through it, but whatever, I got my pips, I'm happy. :cool: So Music_Prodcuer, what are your thoughts on the NFP report Friday, being that the US markets are closed and all - do you believe that will that affect things any differently?
Music_Producer
Quote:
04-04-2007 03:15 PM
Originally Posted by nhallmark (Post 3513293) Hey, Music_Producer, don't go to sleep yet....Apple just released the 8 core Mac Pro!!!:D :D Damn, I just need a few more interest rate decisions and I'll have enough..lol :p
Lol.. sweet.. get to work nathan! I can't wait for my mac pro :p :D Yes, I did fall asleep! I went to gym last night and was so exhausted that I couldn't stay up to trade.. besides the aussie trade made me feel quite satised, so I went to bed and slept for a good 12 hours. :) I've traded a million units with CMC before nathan.. and i didn't get a re-quote. My response time was below 200 ms though. What I've found is that during very signicant UK or US reports, the response time goes up. It's obviously CMC doing this.. because the Currenex platform shows '4 bars' which means excellent connectivity. So yes, CMC is obviously trying to cut down on news traders.
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Oceanview, shard is right.. you may have sailed through this one.. but sometimes the currency can go the opposite way by 50-60 pips. In that case, instead of your 2 pip prot, you would be down by quite a number of pips. So, be careful.. it's ok to lose a few pips if trades don't go your way. I think the GBP interest rate statement is more important.. I'll be looking out for that one. If they don't do anything, no big deal.. I'll miss out on the canadian trade. Ugh, why can't they come out half an hour apart?!! Shard, I think the non farm will be important regardless of whether it's a holiday or not. I'm wondering though, is CMC open on friday morning?
OceanView
Quote:
04-04-2007 03:20 PM
Originally Posted by ~Shard~ (Post 3515046) Great job, but just a word of constructive criticism for you. If a trade ever goes bad, or you end up "missing the boat", you have to be able to realize it might be in your best interests just to take a loss as opposed to "riding things out". Many people have a psychological barrier whereby they feel they must always at least break even, but the markets don't know that and they don't care. :cool: If you ever guess wrong, get in late, etc. be mindful and open to the idea that you may need to take a loss to prevent a larger loss down the road. If you are trading the news, then trade the news - get in, get out - don't trade the movement afterwards, hoping it will go in one direction or another because then you are not trading the news, you're trading on speculation and might as well put your money on RED at the roulette table simply because BLACK has hit the past 4 spins. :p ;) have a plan and stick to it. Forex trading takes a lot of discipline. :cool: Not trying to be hard on you, just offering some advice to be of help to you. :
No Problem Shard. Actually thanks for saying that. Now that I read your comments, it made me realize that the strategy should be followed to a T and there should be no deviation which can get me into trouble. :rolleyes: It's a lot harder for me to make the pips right now because I am using and OandA account. I didn't like the CMC interface and with all the talk of re-quotes from MP, I was just using OandA hoping for another platform solution. Gonna try CMC again and hope that it works for me. One of the things that I like to see is the movement in the graph. Although I know its too fast to actually do something with it. I will try using the OandA for the visual graph while trading with CMC. :D Shard, I think I might just print out your comment and post it in front of my computer to remind me. :D Again, thanks
nhallmark
04-04-2007 03:29 PM
Hey, Music_Producer, TTN was saying this morning that the Shadow MPC voted 8-1 for a rate hike tomorrow...so if we don't see one, do you think it could turn out like Australia yesterday...meaning it would be safe to short on a no hike? I guess we'll see. If TTN starts going on and on about the mixed opinions like they did for australia, then I would think it would be safe to sell on a no hike.
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Oh..one other thing...you had posted earlier that you were going to pull up the currenex charts to see about the intervals in lot sizes or something like that...I was under the impression that currenex didn't have charts. Is that right, or do they?
Music_Producer
04-05-2007 01:36 AM
This could have been another excellent trade (gbp industrial production).. but when I hit 'sell' CMC magically disconnected me. It was a good thing those f@ckers didn't execute my trade and just gave me a re-quote when I was able to 'log back in' Utter and absolute bastards. Giving me a re-quote is one thing, but completely disconnecting me (while everything else connected to the internet was working just ne) .. give me a break. Nathan, i think it would be safe to short the gbp/usd if there is no hike. but still, be careful. There might be a spike in a few seconds.. who knows. The one thing for sure though, is, obviously if they hike it.. it's going to shoot up.
nhallmark
damn, man...that sucks. Im sure they're going to start pulling that sh*t with me soon. Luckily, I didn't have any problems. I made 15 pips on it. Have you traded a report with currenex successfully yet? or is TTN really that slow..lol?
04-05-2007 02:00 AM
Music_Producer
04-05-2007 04:06 AM
14 pips on UK interest rate decision.. rates stayed the same, so I shorted GBP/USD. I was at 27 pips at one point.. but it took me something like 7-8 clicks to close my position! :mad: :mad: Oh well, at least I got 14 pips instead of 0. Holy crap.. I just saw the Canadian numbers.. that would have been a blockbuster trade.. damn it, I wish these reports came out separately. Edit : - I just saw the USD/CAD charts.. that was a 50 pip move!!!
nhallmark
04-05-2007 04:23 AM
yeah, I was trying to trade both but I opted for the CAD report so I got in late because I was paying attention to the UK...I still made 35 pips on CAD though :D
Music_Producer
Quote:
04-05-2007 04:55 AM
Originally Posted by nhallmark (Post 3517413) yeah, I was trying to trade both but I opted for the CAD report so I got in late because I was paying attention to the UK...I still made 35 pips on CAD though :D
Nice! Get those superpowers working so you can trade 2 reports at the same time in the future :p
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for tomorrow's NFP, I'm simply going to watch (on the currenex platform) and see if it moves before TTN comes out with anything.
OceanView
You guys are doing good. I must have been too tired cause I didn't wake up till 7 AM (PST) and missed my trades.
04-05-2007 10:07 AM
MP, Its aweful that your having problems with CMC but Nathan is not. Wonder if it was your connection or they singled you out cause your making too much money. :o Hopefully it wont happen again. By the way, why didn't you use your Currenex account?

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~Shard~
04-05-2007 01:55 PM
Great work guys! Sorry for checking in late but after trading this morning it was off to work right away! This has been my rst break all day... Anywho, traded the GBPUSD although I wish I would have traded the USDCAD - what a move! I made 20 pips on the interest rate announcement so I was pretty happy with that. CMC has been ne for me lately, so that's really too bad Music_Producer. :( I've had the odd requote, but nothing along the lines of the troubles you've been having. Are you going to go solely with Currenex? How are you going to handle the news reporting situation? As nathan asked, is TTN really that slow compared to Currenex? And what are the differences between the $25K account and the $50K account? (What exactly does "white label" mean?) NFP report tomorrow - I'll be ready to trade again! :cool:
Music_Producer
Quote:
04-05-2007 03:31 PM
Originally Posted by OceanView (Post 3518236) MP, Its aweful that your having problems with CMC but Nathan is not. Wonder if it was your connection or they singled you out cause your making too much money. :o Hopefully it wont happen again. By the way, why didn't you use your Currenex account?
Nathan does have problems too.. check the previous posts.. it seems that as soon as customers start making some money, brokers come up with various ways to stop them from doing so. The currenex account i have is only a demo account. I didn't want to miss out a GBP rate hike (if there was one) on my real account. Shard, TTN is slow compared to Currenex.. I've applied for a Reuters news demo, let's see how that goes.. nobody has got back to me from Reuters though, so they have deplorable customer service for sure. I've heard that account minimums for Currenex range from 50k-75k. Nathan mentioned that ODL accepts 25 k minimum for currenex.. no difference, it's just that different brokers have different minimum requirements. White label is basically a customized solution.. but using the Currenex interface. For e.g. I open a brokerage rm, and I want to offer the Currenex platform to my customers. So I sign up with Currenex as a white label.. my customers will have access to Currenex.. but the name on top will be that of my brokerage rm's. It's just a label thing.. kinda like Samsung makes a TV but Sony puts it's name on it. Of course, currenex gets a little commission for using their platform.
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~Shard~
Thanks for the info Music_Producer. :)
04-05-2007 10:11 PM
~Shard~
04-06-2007 05:34 AM
34 pips! Now that's how you trade NFP! :D Perfect trade for me (I haven't had one in a while) - no CMC lag, no requote, just a perfect in and out within 2 seconds. What a great feeling. :) Well, back to bed for me - it's a holiday after all. Hope you all fared just as well. :cool:
OceanView
Quote:
04-06-2007 05:43 AM
Originally Posted by ~Shard~ (Post 3520769) 34 pips! Now that's how you trade NFP! :D Perfect trade for me (I haven't had one in a while) - no CMC lag, no requote, just a perfect in and out within 2 seconds. What a great feeling. :) Well, back to bed for me - it's a holiday after all. Hope you all fared just as well. :cool:
Nice Shard! That's gotta feel great! Didn't do so well myself as I was fumbling on the controls of MarketMaker.:mad: By the way, TradeTheNews service disconnected a few times after the announcements. Has anyone else had that problem today? EDIT: TTN problem was associated with my wireless router. It disconneced me a few time. Going to change to wired LAN this weekend.
Music_Producer
Quote:
04-06-2007 05:43 AM
Originally Posted by ~Shard~ (Post 3520769) 34 pips! Now that's how you trade NFP! :D Perfect trade for me (I haven't had one in a while) - no CMC lag, no requote, just a perfect in and out within 2 seconds. What a great feeling. :) Well, back to bed for me - it's a holiday after all. Hope you all fared just as well. :cool:
Nice one Shard! I managed to get 22 pips on the Currenex Demo.. it's much faster than TTN.. lol.. so i got in late.. but execution was beautiful. If the US markets were open today, gbp/usd would have dropped 100 pips for sure, because both reports came out usd positive (NFP and Unemployment rate) Another reason why cmc didn't mess around is because it's a holiday.. so market volume is relatively low. If this were a regular work day, oh boy.. you would have seen quite a few 'incidents' :D
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~Shard~
Quote:
04-06-2007 05:49 AM
Originally Posted by OceanView (Post 3520780) Nice Shard! That's gotta feel great!
Thanks, it most certainly does! :)

Quote:
Originally Posted by OceanView (Post 3520780) Didn't do so well myself as I was fumbling on the controls of MarketMaker.:mad: By the way, TradeTheNews service disconnected a few times after the announcements. Has anyone else had that problem today?
That's odd for TTN, when I had my 3 week trial for it it was rock solid. As for MarketMaker, yeah, as with anything, it takes time to get used to it. Just keep it up and you'll be a pro at it in no time. ;) :)
Quote:
Originally Posted by Music_Producer (Post 3520782) Nice one Shard! I managed to get 22 pips on the Currenex Demo.. it's much faster than TTN.. lol.. so i got in late.. but execution was beautiful. If the US markets were open today, gbp/usd would have dropped 100 pips for sure, because both reports came out usd positive (NFP and Unemployment rate)
Yeah, I know - but we'll be happy with the pips we did get. :D Now, you mention that the Currenex demo is faster than TTN - you're not talking about a Currenex news service being faster than the TTN news service, correct? I assume what you mean is that the platform itself reacts quicker than TTN can report it, causing you to effectively get in late correct?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Music_Producer (Post 3520782) Another reason why cmc didn't mess around is because it's a holiday.. so market volume is relatively low. If this were a regular work day, oh boy.. you would have seen quite a few 'incidents' :D
Heh heh, perhaps... ;) But if you'll excuse me, I really have to get back to bed now... ;)
Music_Producer
04-06-2007 05:53 AM
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Yes, I meant that the price levels on Currenex move before TTN comes out with anything, although this time the gap was hardly a second. I also noticed that the spread on gbp/usd increased to 8 pips.. this is obviously not carried out by Currenex.. but by the broker. There are different 'tiers' apparently.. and it depends on how much of a deposit you have.. institutional clients like banks have a 1/2 pip spread (sometimes even zero) Everything's too fast when it comes to currenex.. the only way to trade with that platform is to subscribe to reuters or bloomberg. Go to bed already Shard :p Time for me to go to bed as well, enjoy the weekend everyone!
mfoote
new to forex
04-06-2007 06:07 AM
Hello I am new to forex - I have a long term plan to eventually trade. If possible can someone answer my questions: Which site publishes the outcome of economic news the fastest? As a mac user which platform is best to open a demo account with? Thank you
nhallmark
I overslept :p ,,,so obviously I didnt trade, but good job, guys!
04-06-2007 06:16 AM
Music_Producer, Ive heard that the reason spreads go crazy on currenex is because you're actually buying/selling in the real market so if someone decides they'll let you buy it at 1.9750 and someone else is willing to sell it at 1.9748 then the spread is 2 pips(Im sure you already know that..just sayin) ...and supposedly, the bids/offers go crazy at news time and Ive even heard someone say that the spread will be inverted for a split second during news sometimes. And so the broker isnt making the spread...they charge you a commision like a stock broker, supposedly. I could be wrong on all this and you probably know more since you're actually using it and Im just relying on rumors :p ...but Im just saying what Ive heard. Anyway, have a great weekend guys :D
OceanView
04-10-2007 10:19 PM
Hey guys, not much going on these days I see. Looking into tomorrows announcements, how important is the CAD Housing Starts? Does the USD/CAD move much during this announcement? How about the GBP House Price Balance announcement?
~Shard~
04-10-2007 10:40 PM
I'll be trading the CAD housing starts - I have a feeling there might be a signicant move on this one... Guess we'll see...
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OceanView
Oh Really?! You know something that other people don't know? :rolleyes: Gonna have to set the alarm early for this one. zzzzzzzzzzzzz Happy trading Shard.
04-10-2007 10:45 PM
OceanView
Not much movement. Should of stayed in bed. Should be more exciting later today. Happy trading everyone :)
04-11-2007 05:20 AM
~Shard~
04-11-2007 06:42 AM
Yep, no trade this morning, but I would have been awake regardless so it wasn't a big deal to watch - not like I had to get up early or anything. ;) No more trading for me today - I have to head off to work son and then I have a rehearsal this evening for our upcoming symphony performance. Ah well, more trades to be had tomorrow... :cool:
nhallmark
04-11-2007 06:51 PM
no trade on AUD employment #s. unemployment rate dropped which had a bigger effect than the job # ...guess everyone really wants that rate hike ;) :D
OceanView
Quote:
04-11-2007 09:59 PM
Originally Posted by nhallmark (Post 3537461) no trade on AUD employment #s. unemployment rate dropped which had a bigger effect than the job # ...guess everyone really wants that rate hike ;) :D
Oh ok, I was out at dinner and could not trade this one. I guess I didn't miss much. GBP Trade Balance should be interesting though. Gonna try to get a few hours of sleep before this announcement. Good trading everyone.
~Shard~
04-11-2007 10:23 PM
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1/15/08 8:32 PM
I won't be getting up tonight for the GBP trade, but I will be watching the US data when I wake up tomorrow. Good luck all!
nhallmark
I stayed out of the trade balance also...small deviation. did you guys trade it?
04-12-2007 01:32 AM
Music_Producer
04-12-2007 01:39 AM
I had a crappy Aussie trade today. I saw the employment change report (come out -ve) so I hit 'sell' on AUD/USD.. and it did go down 20 pips.. but CMC executed my sell order after 25 seconds! I saw aud/usd spike back up on the 4.5% news, and I assumed I was probably going to get a re-quote.. but no, the f@ckers cleared my sell order. What was more surprising was that my response time was only 150 ms. In all, I got hit with a 20 pip loss. Anyway, for the UK trade balance, I opted to trade a small lot - about 100,000 units. Guess what? Same thing happened, except this time, my 'sell' order got executed after 40 seconds.. by that time, gbp/usd had gone back up a bit.. so I lost 9 pips on that one. Response time was 180 ms.. so I know for sure they're deliberately doing this. They've moved from re-quotes to actually holding on to my orders.. and then clearing them when they see t. I don't know if this is a one time problem, but seeing this happen twice in a row, especially with super low response times, is a bit unnerving. So, just be cautious.. trade with small lots. Don't risk losing money on trading big lots and having them f@ck around like that. :mad:
~Shard~
04-12-2007 05:34 AM
Yikes, that's horrible Music_Producer! :eek: I feel bad for you, it's almost like they're trying to stie your trading because you're so good at it... :o ;) How have things been going with Currenex? As for this morning's data, it pretty much offset itself, so no trade to be had - GBPUSD and EURUSD didn't move much at all.
Music_Producer
Quote:
04-12-2007 05:45 AM
Originally Posted by ~Shard~ (Post 3538570) Yikes, that's horrible Music_Producer! :eek: I feel bad for you, it's almost like they're trying to stie your trading because you're so good at it... :o ;) How have things been going with Currenex? As for this morning's data, it pretty much offset itself, so no trade to be had - GBPUSD and EURUSD didn't move much at all.
Currenex is unbelievable, really.. no let downs at all (so far) I have even customized two hot keys (for buy/sell) .. works like a charm. I'm still waiting to hear from either Reuters/Bloomberg.. once I have that set up, then I'll open up a proper account with a broker. Yup, ecb didn't do anything to the rates.. as predicted. Hopefully new zealand retail sales should be fun to trade.
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~Shard~
Quote:
04-12-2007 07:22 AM
Originally Posted by Music_Producer (Post 3538594) Currenex is unbelievable, really.. no let downs at all (so far) I have even customized two hot keys (for buy/sell) .. works like a charm. I'm still waiting to hear from either Reuters/Bloomberg.. once I have that set up, then I'll open up a proper account with a broker.
Sounds impressive. Are there any other fees associated with using the platform, or is all that's required is the $25K/$50K deposit? I might think about doing the $25K account, we'll see....
Quote:
Originally Posted by Music_Producer (Post 3538594) Yup, ecb didn't do anything to the rates.. as predicted. Hopefully new zealand retail sales should be fun to trade.
Yeah, unfortunately I won't be around for that one - still at work. :( Ah well, this week has pretty much been a write-off for me anyway, what with work and symphony rehearsals almost every night. Next week it will be back to normal though. :)
NavyIntel007
I'm about half way through reading "Proting with FOREX"
04-12-2007 07:36 AM
It's a really good book with some interesting strategies. So far I've been riding the Oil futures wave with CAD/JPY. Since Canada has larger oil reserves than Saudi Arabia, and Japan imports 100% of their oil, when oil rises so does the Canadian Dollar. I've made 10% prot in 2 days. I'm paying attention to other news and riding expected rates. That seems to work pretty well too. FYI, I use OANDA.
OceanView
Quote:
04-12-2007 10:52 AM
Originally Posted by Music_Producer (Post 3538270) I had a crappy Aussie trade today. I saw the employment change report (come out -ve) so I hit 'sell' on AUD/USD.. and it did go down 20 pips.. but CMC executed my sell order after 25 seconds! I saw aud/usd spike back up on the 4.5% news, and I assumed I was probably going to get a re-quote.. but no, the f@ckers cleared my sell order. What was more surprising was that my response time was only 150 ms. In all, I got hit with a 20 pip loss. Anyway, for the UK trade balance, I opted to trade a small lot - about 100,000 units. Guess what? Same thing happened, except this time, my 'sell' order got executed after 40 seconds.. by that time, gbp/usd had gone back up a bit.. so I lost 9 pips on that one. Response time was 180 ms.. so I
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know for sure they're deliberately doing this. They've moved from re-quotes to actually holding on to my orders.. and then clearing them when they see t. I don't know if this is a one time problem, but seeing this happen twice in a row, especially with super low response times, is a bit unnerving. So, just be cautious.. trade with small lots. Don't risk losing money on trading big lots and having them f@ck around like that. :mad:
That sucks! Looks like you've been targeted by CMC. Hope you can open a currenex account and have better luck with them. What do you think about the NZD retail sales announcement? Will it move the market much?
Music_Producer
Quote:
04-12-2007 11:11 AM
Originally Posted by OceanView (Post 3539587) That sucks! Looks like you've been targeted by CMC. Hope you can open a currenex account and have better luck with them. What do you think about the NZD retail sales announcement? Will it move the market much?
NZD retail sales are pretty important for the nzd/usd.. it all depends on how big the deviation is.
OceanView
9 pips on the NZD Retail sales gure. My trade the news trial subscription ran out so just watched the spike. Got in a bit late, paid 20 pips to OandA and got out. How did everyone else do?
04-12-2007 03:48 PM
nhallmark
damn it!!!:mad: got a requote. that was an easy 40 pips. how'd you guys do?
04-12-2007 03:48 PM
OceanView
Quote:
04-12-2007 03:51 PM
Originally Posted by nhallmark (Post 3541043) damn it!!!:mad: got a requote. that was an easy 40 pips. how'd you guys do?
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CMC sucks!
Music_Producer
Quote:
04-12-2007 04:04 PM
Originally Posted by nhallmark (Post 3541043) damn it!!!:mad: got a requote. that was an easy 40 pips. how'd you guys do?
Welcome to the party pal! Re-quotes galore! I traded nzd sales on Currenex today.. TTN came out earlier than currenex moved.. traded 10 m units, guess how much I made? $45,000 :D Ahh, I wish it was real money!! :eek: My wife traded on the cmc platform.. I shouted out 'Buy' to her.. and she clicked buy.. and she got a re-quote.. lol. See Nathan, we might as well have traded on Oanda.. could have made a few pips! :p
Music_Producer
04-12-2007 04:10 PM
I saw this interesting post at forexfactory.. so I am pasting that here (regarding retail forex brokers and how they con us): Have just found an old laptop with some actual statistics provided to me by a couple of some major international FX dealing companies back a few years ago. The data was extracted directly from their back ofce systems and is accompanied by a bunch of their own analysis and comments. I guess some of these numbers could be of interest to public. But rst, just a few words about how retail FX business works. Usually, when I was asking my students if they know how dealers make their money the answer was always the same: On dealing spreads. The difference between bid and ask is what a dealer usually puts in his pocket. Such nave belief still persists among the general population of retail FX market traders. In fact, this business works quite differently. Because cash currency market in its origin is an interbank market it operates in large contracts. Much larger than the contracts traded by an average retail customer. Because of that, the companies providing services to retail clients have no other choice but to bucket small positions of their customers inside the house. Some of such client!s positions are becoming offset by one another but obviously not all of them. When the general sentiment about market!s direction is particularly strong among small-size traders then the total number of open longs and shorts becomes largely disproportional and shifted one way or another. When the bucket becomes too big to carry the dealer passes it into the market covering house!s exposure. However, because only a couple of percent of traders are actually making money in the Forex market over a longer time, such statistics provides dealer with pretty good opportunity to make a lot of money just keeping their clients! positions inside the house for as long as possible. In this case a dealing company business is little different than a business of Las Vegas style casino where every customer is betting against the house. In our case it is virtually the same and client!s losses become dealer!s prots and vise versa. Some of the dealers, especially those with deeper pockets and consolidated management routinely carry very large exposures on daily by betting against their customers. Some of them routinely carry inside the house an exposure in excess of hundreds of mio. USD. In order to prevent some unnecessary risks and to get some protection from possible bankruptcy if the things go ugly for a dealer, every dealing company has some guidelines and internal policy with the idea of limiting their risks. Here is what they usually do: Limit their exposure to a certain size. After reaching the preset limit, the position gets covered in the market or hedged. Customers with large capitals and big trades are also treated differently than the rest of the
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clientele. They also make customers! proling. They lter out those clients that could potentially beat the odds and trade protably. So, they don!t bucket such customers and usually immediately pass their contract to a larger counterpart like the clearinghouse or another bank. Sometimes even to another dealer. The rest of the customers with lack of brains or a lack of experience and relatively small trading capital get bucketed inside the house. I remember myself trading through a major Europe based dealer, which began to cover all of our positions only after paying us a few mio USD of trading prots out of his own pocket in a couple of month trading period. Then they even established a dedicated telephone line for our two-way communications and greatly improved their services since. So, here is some approximate statistics for A Dealer vs. a Trader casino style game from the dealer!s point of view, which I believe should be true for the industry in general. (Over 24-month period) Winning months 15. Losing months 9. Total annual prot 63% (of the total amount of all the customers! funds in trade). Average monthly prot 5%. Max monthly gain 37%. Max monthly loss 10% Total customers! loss (USD) 41 mio. Average customer monthly loss 1,8 mio. Roughly 40-50% of customers! losses can be attributed to spreads and slippages. Average life expectancy for an active individual trader without him adding more funds into the account ~ 2 months. There could also be some dirty tricks that some of the dealers practice for increasing their prots and minimizing the risks. Some of the most common are: Skewing quotes away from the real market price. Usually shifting them in the direction of the immediate trend. (Doesn!t happen with the most reputable dealers nowadays) Executing stops before the market has reached them or outside actual trading range. (Pretty common for small bucket-shops). Suddenly increase dealing spreads to hit the stops or do not execute limits even if the market has traded there. (Happens sometimes even with reputable dealers. Limits execution problem is my most frequent problem that I have to deal with on a regular basis). Executing stops with unreasonably large slippages. (To me happens mostly only if trading large contracts. Even with banks). Canceling executed trades. (Have never seen it personally but have seen lots of reports from others). Re-quoting market orders in a slow market for a worse price. (Extremely common practice on all levels). Constantly re-quoting every order in the fast market without offering an alternative price and thus not allowing making a trade at all. (Only those dealers whose trading platform is intentionally programmed to perform such a trick). Disconnecting internet-based trading platform at the moments of increased market volatility or just freezing it for a while. (Usually, right before or during a major economic news release) (Normal practice for smaller bucket-shops but now also becomes relatively popular among larger guys too).
OceanView
Quote:
04-12-2007 04:12 PM
Originally Posted by Music_Producer (Post 3541135) Welcome to the party pal! Re-quotes galore! I traded nzd sales on Currenex today.. TTN came out earlier than currenex moved.. traded 10 m units, guess how much I made? $45,000 :D Ahh, I wish it was real money!! :eek: My wife traded on the cmc platform.. I shouted out 'Buy' to her.. and she clicked buy.. and she got a re-quote.. lol.
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See Nathan, we might as well have traded on Oanda.. could have made a few pips! :p
WOW! :eek: So 1 pip was $1000 usd? and you made 45 pips in the trade? :eek: That would have been great if it was for real. So what are you waiting for? Open up that Currenex account. Or you could come back to OandA :p
nhallmark
04-12-2007 04:24 PM
man, the way you talk about currenex has got me drooling over it like that mac pro or that motif :p I also read that post on forexfactory the other day...it still amazes me that its a constant ght with the entity controlling our funds(the broker)...cant wait until I have enough for currenex. That is so cool that you traded that much on currenex without a problem(I know its demo, but still) Hey, there's another post on that same thread.... http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...t=20253&page=3 Its the last one on the page...the guy is saying that ECNs want you to win so you will trade more lots which means more commision for them...makes sense. I really hope that's the case. Im going to go relax...Im still shaking because Im so pissed off at CMC...I want to hit someone(them) :rolleyes:
OceanView
04-12-2007 04:25 PM
Very interesting Music Producer. I think we all kind of knew something like that was happening in the back ground but never really got any conrmation. Thanks for the post. Now we gotta gure out how to get around it.
Music_Producer
04-12-2007 04:54 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by OceanView (Post 3541231) Very interesting Music Producer. I think we all kind of knew something like that was happening in the back ground but never really got any conrmation. Thanks for the post. Now we gotta gure out how to get around it.
You can't.. well, you can get around it by trading long term strategies.. that calls for technical trading, etc.. which holds not much of a prot potential as compared to what we're doing with the news. If you give me a good broker, and no re-quote or slippage crap.. I can triple the account in a month or two. Nathan, i've tried ecns.. mb trading for e.g. For market orders during news they give huge slippage.. they will execute ur trade 30-50 seconds after you hit buy or sell. The only thing I can think of is,.. to open an account.. trade protably for a bit, and then as soon as the broker starts noticing you and acts funny, close your account and get your prots out. Tedious, but could work.. Tomorrow's one mess of a lot of trades.. too many things coming out at the same time - ppi, trade balance, and then canadian trade balance. If us ppi and trade balance come out worse than expected, then that would be a good trade. Use caution, I'll be trading with a small lot.. if you don't feel like waking up to trade this one, that would be a good idea. Not worth wasting sleep over this, when you can trade single reports next week.
nhallmark
04-12-2007 05:04 PM
er...I thought currenex was an ECN, or rather, the platform connects you to ECNs...and I thought MBtrading was a retail rip off version of that. Maybe I've got my facts wrong :confused: I'll probably watch the CAD report tomorrow and trade EUR/CAD if I do trade...maybe I can catch CMC off guard since everyone will be watching the US data :p
Music_Producer
Quote:
04-12-2007 05:21 PM
Originally Posted by nhallmark (Post 3541384) er...I thought currenex was an ECN, or rather, the platform connects you to ECNs...and I thought MBtrading was a retail rip off version of that. Maybe I've got my facts wrong :confused: I'll probably watch the CAD report tomorrow and trade EUR/CAD if I do trade...maybe I can catch CMC off guard since everyone will be watching the US data :p
Currenex is a 'true' ECN.. you have to pay through your nose to get in.. mb's a rip off ecn as you rightly put it
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:p EUR/CAD.. I don't know.. what if news is US-ve.. EUR might go up.. how about CAD/JPY?
Music_Producer
04-13-2007 03:05 AM
Btw, I just checked with ODL Securities. They have a minimum of $25 k to open a currenex account, which is a much lower requirement than the usual 50-75k. However, they do not allow news trading. :rolleyes: The customer rep rst asked me if I would be trading large volumes, I replied yes. Then he asked me if I trade the news.. when I replied in the positive, he just atly stated that, that 'style' of trading can cause an account to be closed. WTF??!!
Music_Producer
04-13-2007 03:50 AM
I emailed ODL, this time explaining what I do (trade in a few seconds on news reports) and this is what I got back from a rep: "Yes but you are getting the news before the world can change the prices so for example the mkt is 50-52 the news comes out bullish for the euro You buy at 52 as the actual news has not hit the street and also the interbank have not had time to move the rate to 70-72 , its only the odd second You simply sell at 70 and make 18 pips but the bank have simply lost 18 given away , no view or expertise , they have no possibility to get cover the deal they simply give u 18 pips Why would they do that " Do you guys nd this ironic? Ironic that all these forex retailers claim to make money on the spread, plus commission (for currenex) on certain volumes.. and on top of that.. they don't want customers to make any money? Why the heck would I want to sign up with them then? :confused: That's like me offering you medical insurance.. you have to pay $300 every month, you have to pay the deductible.. AND you have to eventually pay the entire hospital bill simply because the hospital changed their policies or can't honor your insurance. Totally fraudulent, don't you guys agree?
Music_Producer
04-13-2007 05:40 AM
Core PPI stayed the same, but i jumped in on the trade balance report (although the deviation was small, and also.. the regular ppi was up by a bit) Made 7 pips on currenex. Anyone traded CAD?

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nhallmark
04-13-2007 06:20 AM
I took your advice and overslept :p I seem to have a habit of doing that on fridays lol :rolleyes: That's crazy about ODL....and you know theyre lying because the only time the price gets changed without people buying or selling is the initial spike on NFP(which is an articial spike put in by the banks)...or thats what Ive heard, at least. It seems to me that even if you traded technicals...say you bought at 1.9650 and hold for a few days, then sell at 1.9800 making 150 pips that youre style of trading isnt "fair" because when you bought at 1.9650, the bank didnt have time to move it to 1.9800..it took them a few days :p So, yeah, its bullsh*t. There is something I was reading last night about aaronfx and they were actually saying on their website that they dont play those games and how different they are...I cant seem to nd the page now. Maybe I was dreaming :p Anyway, Im going to get on the phone with them either today or monday and talk to them openly about news trading on their retail platform and their currenex platform( its $25K also). Edit: just got off the phone with aarontrade and they said their policy is 50/50...meaning if youre taking other types of trades aside from news you'll be ne but if news trading is all youre doing, you'll run into problems. I applied for a demo of their retail platform last night so we'll see how they turn out I guess. Ive been done with the vanessafx thing for quite awhlie though, so Im not sure what I would do for "other types of trading"
OceanView
Quote:
04-13-2007 08:06 AM
Originally Posted by Music_Producer (Post 3543445) Core PPI stayed the same, but i jumped in on the trade balance report (although the deviation was small, and also.. the regular ppi was up by a bit) Made 7 pips on currenex. Anyone traded CAD?
Nope, Sleep this one out. Which brokers do the people on Forex Factory use? They seem to be trading with some software that allows custom programming. Hope that you can nd a good broker MP.
astro1
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04-13-2007 08:21 AM
1/15/08 8:33 PM
Morning everyone. I've been reading this thread for the past few days (all 57 pages of it) I want to thank everyone for starting this and the wealth of info here. I'm new to Forex so trying to edumacate myself and this sure helps. Going to start a game account in the next few days to put your tips to good use. Anyways, thanks again for this great thread. Richard (A Canadian eh)
~Shard~
04-13-2007 08:50 AM
I'm glad you have found the thread of value Richard - and always nice to see a fellow Canadian on board! ;) :D If you have any questions at all, just post them. Happy trading and welcome to the world of forex! :cool:
astro1
04-13-2007 12:02 PM
well so far I am reading and reading and reading...............and reading some more. So far I think 1/4 of 1% has stuck :mad: That should improve (I hope) . Question I have lots of but will wait to see if I can gure some out myself before I make an ass out of myself here. I took the kindergarden quiz over at babypips and scored 60% !!!!!!!!!!!! back to the drawing board, LMAO
Music_Producer
Quote:
04-13-2007 07:42 PM
Originally Posted by nhallmark (Post 3543535) Edit: just got off the phone with aarontrade and they said their policy is 50/50...meaning if youre taking other types of trades aside from news you'll be ne but if news trading is all youre doing, you'll run into problems.
Just got another email from the customer rep at ODL.. btw, I don't even know if he can speak/type English well.. check out his reasoning: "If you buy at a bank rate that the whole world can buy at then the risk is mkt up or down , it's a 50-50 risk m, if you buiy at a rate that is not their then well do the maths Its like buying a brand new jaguar for 5 000 when the mkt is 45000 It doesn't happen I assume you will be know through 40-50 brokers within your time and make a couple of pound at each one but never come back we are simply avoiding this from the beginning " A brand new jaguar for 5000 when the mkt is 45000 :rolleyes: And just like you said.. if you made pips via technical trading.. there's no difference in that and trading the news. But like this idiot rep stated.. there's a risk when you're doing technical trading.. you could go in a loss.
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The one thing I don't get is.. how do these slimy bastar@ds make money if we go in a loss? It's a market. They get their commission, they make money on the spread. The currency we are trading.. isn't that free owing? If I made 18 pips prot on something.. someone somewhere else lost 18 pips by entering a wrong trade.. so in the end it all evens out.
nhallmark
04-13-2007 09:29 PM
yep..its bullsh*t. the whole basis of trading is exploiting a change in market prices for a prot...but if the prices change to fast in your favor, your not allowed to do it because it isnt fair :rolleyes: Check this out... http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=24672 I will be staying far, far away from ODL. You had mentioned earlier that you were trying PFG currenex...have you asked them about news trading? On monday, Im going to get on the phone with all these different brokers and ask them straight up what their policy is on news trading...we'll see how it goes.
Music_Producer
04-14-2007 03:26 AM
Wow.. that's nuts about ODL giving such slippage. Yeah, judging from the response of that nut, I won't be signing up with ODL for sure. I haven't asked PFG yet about the news bit, but I will on monday.. let's see if they give the same bull. I think we need to start our own brokerage rm.. I wonder if that would work.
~Shard~
04-14-2007 07:21 AM
Yeah, all of these experiences are pretty discouraging, yet unfortunately the way it is in the nance industry. A friend of mine is a day trader and all their rm does is essentially stop hunt and place ghost orders to lure people into taking a position. It's greed, it's corrupt, it's the wonderful world of the markets! :rolleyes: ;) I think we've discussed setting up our own rm a few times Music_Producer - myself on the stocks and commodities side, you on the forex side - our own little hedge fund. :D But I know nothing about subscribing to direct-to-market access, what the fees are, what needs to be done with regards to registration with the SEC i this respect, etc. etc. There would be no point in starting our own rm if we still needed to rely on some of these back-end providers for our trading platform! ;) It is all very frustrating, but what can you do? We're still making money (just not as much as we potentially could be...) so I guess we can't complain too much. They say only 5-8% of traders are actually successful consistently and over time, so I guess we can consider ourselves among the elite. ;) :cool:
nhallmark
04-14-2007 09:49 AM
I think the ideal thing would be to start our own bank because then no one can tell us what to do :p That aarontrade platform is a joke. It's browser based, but it only runs on windows and get this, it only runs on IE...it wouldnt even let me log in on refox.
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That's not a big deal, but what got me is that the platform is sooo 90's and it takes 2-3 seconds(Im serious) to execute an order. I've emailed them about their currenex so we'll see how that goes. After reading around, Im hearing that futures might be an option because the brokers legally can't pull all the crap they do with spot forex. Of course, there are a lot of rules with futures that make it difcult, but it might be a possibility.
OceanView
Quote:
04-14-2007 10:25 AM
Originally Posted by nhallmark (Post 3547240) I think the ideal thing would be to start our own bank because then no one can tell us what to do :p That aarontrade platform is a joke. It's browser based, but it only runs on windows and get this, it only runs on IE...it wouldnt even let me log in on refox. That's not a big deal, but what got me is that the platform is sooo 90's and it takes 2-3 seconds(Im serious) to execute an order. I've emailed them about their currenex so we'll see how that goes. After reading around, Im hearing that futures might be an option because the brokers legally can't pull all the crap they do with spot forex. Of course, there are a lot of rules with futures that make it difcult, but it might be a possibility.
How would you place an order before the news if you dont know what the news announcement is? Hope we can nd a good solution.
nhallmark
Quote:
04-14-2007 12:28 PM
Originally Posted by OceanView (Post 3547339) How would you place an order before the news if you dont know what the news announcement is? Hope we can nd a good solution.
err...Im not sure what you mean. I was saying, with aarontrade, it takes 2-3 seconds for the order to go through, so you get the news, click, and then its too late by the time the order actually goes through...which is unacceptable for news trading. Please elaborate if you meant something else.
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Music_Producer
04-14-2007 04:07 PM
Nathan, i think ocean meant that question in regards to futures.. but i don't know.. i could be wrong. Lol about aaron platform being so 90s :p I checked with them about currenex.. minimum is 75 k and 500 k units for every trade. Shard, I guess even if we do start up our own little fund.. we would need massive capital to be connected directly to something like the CME marketplace, instead of relying on a third party that could potentially screw us over. On a slightly positive note though, my Aussie carry trade is up 339 pips :D Will it shoot beyond 100? It should, .. remember I told you that carry trades will always go on as long as there is a nice interest differential. Look for any 'doomsday' reports where ***/JPY pairs get shorted to hell (400-800 pips) and then buy and get back in the ride.
OceanView
Quote:
04-14-2007 04:18 PM
Originally Posted by nhallmark (Post 3547604) err...Im not sure what you mean. I was saying, with aarontrade, it takes 2-3 seconds for the order to go through, so you get the news, click, and then its too late by the time the order actually goes through...which is unacceptable for news trading. Please elaborate if you meant something else.
Nathan, I was talking about futures market. You mentioned it in your previous post.
nhallmark
Im still confused :confused:
04-14-2007 06:45 PM
I think my post is being interpreted differently than I intended since MP said you were talking about futures also. What did I say that implied I would take a position before news? Just trying to understand :confused:
OceanView
Quote:
04-14-2007 09:08 PM
Originally Posted by nhallmark (Post 3547240) After reading around, Im hearing that futures might be an option because the brokers legally can't pull all the crap they do with spot forex. Of course, there are a lot of rules with futures that make it difcult, but it might be a possibility.
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1/15/08 8:33 PM
Nathan, this is your quote that you mentioned about futures. Can you elaborate on it?
OceanView
Quote:
04-14-2007 09:13 PM
Originally Posted by nhallmark (Post 3548519) Im still confused :confused: I think my post is being interpreted differently than I intended since MP said you were talking about futures also. What did I say that implied I would take a position before news? Just trying to understand :confused:
You did not imply that you would take position. I may have put that in there thinking thats how you would buy/sell in the futures market. I must be confused. :confused:
nhallmark
Well, I don't really know much about futures which is why I am still deciding.
04-15-2007 07:33 AM
I've heard people say that they can trade the news spike without a problem on CME because, in futures, your broker really isnt trading against you so they don't care if you win or lose. As far as the process goes, you trade the future of the currency rather than trading it against another currency. For example, the EU raises interest rates, so you would buy 6E(the 6 month contract on the euro) instead of EUR/USD. I don't have any more info on futures...this is just what I have learned from reading around. I might get a demo from a futures broker next week and start guring it all out. Oh yeah, one more thing about ODL... http://www.nfa.futures.org/basicnet/...06&contrib=NFA
Music_Producer
04-15-2007 05:39 PM
ODL just keeps getting better and better :rolleyes: Thanks for the info nathan, really appreciate it. I checked out a list of brokers on the CME website, and signed up for a demo with Terra Nova trading and ApexFutures.com. Let's see how that works out. Don't forget the UK and US reports tomorrow morning :)
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nhallmark
04-16-2007 01:36 AM
I got 5 pips on UK PPI...however, I went to sell and close my position and it cleared my margin but my balance was still going up/down...WTF? Then nally the sell order shows up as executed. I can't believe theyre pulling this sh*t. Hopefully it wont happen again.
Music_Producer
04-16-2007 01:52 AM
I made 3 on this one.. but something weird happen (or maybe it's me) As soon as I hit 'buy'.. the price merely uctuated from 1.9885 to 1.9887, back and forth.. and then it actually *went down* to 1.9884. Then it went a little bit up to 1.9889, and I sold. Immediately after that, price jumped to 1.9898. The odd thing is, I had Oanda charts open as well.. and the price on oanda did not move around like that. Fishy, that the ppi came out so good, and the price didn't even move on the cmc platform, or.. it went down after i hit buy. Hmmm....
nhallmark
04-16-2007 01:58 AM
Same thing happened to me...I waited for longer than I normally would to close because I was waiting for it to go up to b/e at least. f*ckers.
Music_Producer
Quote:
04-16-2007 02:08 AM
Originally Posted by nhallmark (Post 3552738) Same thing happened to me...I waited for longer than I normally would to close because I was waiting for it to go up to b/e at least. f*ckers.
I don't know what to think.. that would be downright illegal. Maybe we're just imagining it.. or maybe the price did move that slow.. heck, I'll video tape my trades from now on.. see if something strange pops up. Atleast, I'll have some evidence in the event that they screw around with me.
~Shard~
04-16-2007 05:32 AM
Meh... made 3 pips on the US news - not much movement on the news. Luckily CMC didn't jerk me around as it apparently has been for you guys. :o That being said, perhaps I simply am not acting as quickly as you guys, as my trades seem to last a few seconds as opposed to the split seconds on of some of your trades Music_Producer. Nonetheless, thanks for the PM and I think it's wise to explore all of our options... :cool:
Music_Producer
Quote:
04-16-2007 05:36 AM
Originally Posted by ~Shard~ (Post 3553021) Meh... made 3 pips on the US news - not much movement on the news. Luckily CMC didn't jerk me around as it apparently has been for you guys. :o That being said, perhaps I simply am not acting
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as quickly as you guys, as my trades seem to last a few seconds as opposed to the split seconds on of some of your trades Music_Producer. Nonetheless, thanks for the PM and I think it's wise to explore all of our options... :cool:
I made about 4.. cmc didn't mess with me either. They let the little 3-5 pips go by. but when you make 20-30 pips.. they freeze everything :p Perhaps you don't have problems because you are not just trading the news.. you are also trading commodities and stocks. They might be just cracking down on only news traders.
Music_Producer
04-16-2007 05:39 AM
Damn, should have held on to my gbp trade after the ppi report.. it went up to 1.9940! I assumed, it would hit 1.990 and then people would start selling it, since it's a major level. No stopping these Brits now :eek: .. will GBP be 2.000 soon?
~Shard~
Quote:
04-16-2007 05:43 AM
Originally Posted by Music_Producer (Post 3553027) I made about 4.. cmc didn't mess with me either. They let the little 3-5 pips go by. but when you make 20-30 pips.. they freeze everything :p Perhaps you don't have problems because you are not just trading the news.. you are also trading commodities and stocks. They might be just cracking down on only news traders.
Yeah, perhaps that's it. Also, I have been dabbling with some technical trades at times as well - perhaps I'm not agged as solely an "evil news trader".. :rolleyes: ;) And yes, there seems to be overall USD weakness in the markets - my Gold positions have been doing excellent as well. Next stop, 2.000 on the pound!
nhallmark
I didn't trade US retail sales but I got 5 pips on TIC.
04-16-2007 07:26 AM
I traded EUR/USD thinking I would catch CMC off guard and it seems like it worked because my response time was around 800ms when I clicked but the execution was faster than Ive got from them in quite awhle. Im thinking I might start watching USD/JPY for US reports and if it gives consistent moves I'll switch. The point is to have the GBP/USD, EUR/USD, and USD/JPY windows open so CMC doesn't know which one I am going to click so hopefully, I can switch around and trade a different pair each time and catch them off guard. Of course, I could be making all this up :p
OceanView
Quote:
04-16-2007 07:31 AM
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Originally Posted by nhallmark (Post 3553250) I didn't trade US retail sales but I got 5 pips on TIC. I traded EUR/USD thinking I would catch CMC off guard and it seems like it worked because my response time was around 800ms when I clicked but the execution was faster than Ive got from them in quite awhle. Im thinking I might start watching USD/JPY for US reports and if it gives consistent moves I'll switch. The point is to have the GBP/USD, EUR/USD, and USD/JPY windows open so CMC doesn't know which one I am going to click so hopefully, I can switch around and trade a different pair each time and catch them off guard. Of course, I could be making all this up :p
Good strategy! :-) Wonder if they have an employee watching every trade you make.
nhallmark
Quote:
04-16-2007 07:57 AM
Originally Posted by OceanView (Post 3553261) Good strategy! :-) Wonder if they have an employee watching every trade you make.
Nah, they would lose more money that way from paying the guy :p They supposedly "ag" your account and start routing your orders a different way and its all automated. I read about some guy that wrote some code for MT4 where they cant manipulate the software...I wish I could nd this guy and make him write it for CMC :p
OceanView
Quote:
04-16-2007 09:59 AM
Originally Posted by nhallmark (Post 3553315) Nah, they would lose more money that way from paying the guy :p They supposedly "ag" your account and start routing your orders a different way and its all automated. I read about some guy that wrote some code for MT4 where they cant manipulate the software...I wish I could nd this guy and make him write it for CMC :p
Oh I see. I will try that next time. By the way, I was thinking about applying trade the news strategy on the stock market. It's apparent that
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when good news about the US is announced, the major indicies will go up and if the news is bad, the markets move down. There has to be a way to capitalize on that as we do for the currency market. Maybe we can use options to buy large lots and sell at the end of the day to capture the difference in the movement. What do you guys think? Shard, I know your the expert in the stock market here, please give us your 2 cents.
nhallmark
04-16-2007 11:59 AM
Yeah, that will work for some cases, OceanView, but make sure you know what is going to happen before you trade...for example, a few weeks ago with the FOMC minutes, the fed removed their statement about ination so everyone thought this could be a sign of a rate cut. Obviously, GBP/USD went up, meaning everyone was selling dollars. However, the DOW went up...on bad news for the dollar. This happened because everyone in equities was worried about the subprime mortgage "crisis" and so, when the fed left that comment out of the statement, it was interpreted that the fed will take care of the problem if it spreads by cutting rates...which "reassured" investors, so stocks rallied. One more example of how we're not trading the news, we're trading traders' interpretations of the news. You might already know all this, Im just saying it just in case. I hear stocks are really hard to trade though with all the rules and whatnot...maybe Shard can enlighten us :)
~Shard~
04-16-2007 12:31 PM
Yeah, the stock market is a bit trickier in this respect. It's one of the reasons I like forex actually - because you know when the news is coming out, what it's supposed to be and can actually trade it real-time. With the stock market, signicant scheduled news is always released BMO or AMC, so unless you can do pre-market or after hours trading, you're screwed since you can't react instantly. Then there is the "unscheduled" news i.e. surprises. You either don't see these coming, so unless you're sitting in front of your terminal doing day trading, you can't capitalize, or the news is so signicant that trading on the stock will be halted. :rolleyes: And specic to your comment OceanView, arbitrage is very tricky when it comes to the stock market. I don't play that game... Also, with forex, you know a currency will never absolutely tank against another one - you're always dealing with pairs. Stocks? Well, a stock can go to zero. Sure, it's improbable in many cases, but still it can happen. Look at what all happened during the recent market crashes in 2000 and 1987... All that being said, when it comes to the indices themselves, yes, you could try trading these - I do in fact myself. However you have to be very careful on the news and how you trade. Sometimes good economic news can be bad for the currency but good for the markets, or vice versa. Look at ination for an example lower ination can hammer a currency yet bolster the markets in certain economic conditions. So yes, it's a bit trickier, but can be done if you're on top of things. As well as trading indices, I personally go a step further and trade commodities as well. Gold for instance has an inverse relationship to the USD. It all dates back to the War and resulted in Gold being a hedge against the USD. Right now, Gold is testing key resistance around 692.50. If it stays above this point for more than a day, then I will buy - the next technical target is 755/oz and I would see that happening in the next few months. Then, you can sit back and ride the seasonality wave. Due to several factors I won't go into detail regarding right now, Gold is seasonally strong from around July to the end of September. There will be ups and downs but the trend is there. However if Gold pulls back from 692, I'll wait until it hits support and then buy. Either way, Gold is, well, gold to invest in
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right now... :p ;) :D Anyway, Oil is big as well. When oil is up, other US markets suffer. We are exiting the period of seasonal strength for US energy stocks in a month, so along with the technicals indicating that the DJIA100, S&P500 and NAQ100 are overbought right now (I get this from RSI and stochastics) I see a market correction in the near future. Throw in some hurricanes this summer which will bolster oil and natural gas (which I hold both of as well) and you can make all sorts of money. Oil and gas go up (buy), US markets go down (sell), USD goes down (sell), Gold goes up (buy) - it's cool seeing the big picture, all the inter-relationships and ripple effects. :cool: Oh, and as a supplement to the above for anyone who's curious, one of the reasons Gold (and other metals/commodities) goes up when the USD goes down is due to the fact that weakness in the USD has a positive impact on commodities priced in USD (e.g. gold, silver, copper, zinc, crude oil, fertilizer). Make sense? Anyway, I could go on, but those are just some thoughts from the "non-forex world" since you asked. :cool:
nhallmark
wow...thanks for the excellent reply, Shard :D I've learned a lot today ;)
04-16-2007 12:39 PM
nhallmark
04-16-2007 12:52 PM
Hey guys...I sent an email to that Terra Nova broker that Music_Producer was talking about. They replied and said I they don't have any policies on trading the news and they don't have a clue what Im talking about...so they told me to call and explain it. So, I just got off the phone with a lady and she said there is no problem trading the news. I explained it and she was like "yeah..and so CPI is good, you sell GBP/USD. what's the problem with that?" :eek: :eek: OMFG :eek: Wow..a broker that was halfway honest and understood what we are doing here. However, here's the catch...they clear all forex trades through hotspot and Ive heard that hotspot's spreads widen 20-60 pips during news. I told her about this and she said "you may be right. Im not sure. Ill send you a demo and you can check it for yourself" So, I should have the demo from them soon and if hotspot's spreads aren't that bad, we might have found our solution :D Edit: I should add that I heard the rumors about hotspot's spreads from the same place I heard that you cant trade the news on currenex because of the 80 pip spreads. It was some forum, cant remember but Music_Producer seems to be doing ne on the currenex demo...guess we'll see.
OceanView
04-16-2007 01:16 PM
Thanks Shard for that detailed explaination. Lots of good info there and your basic analysis of the gold, oil, stock markets are great basics for common sense investing. Hope to utilize it and invest in them soon.
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Nathan, I hope the Terra Nova broker's demo does work out. We really have to nd a solution platform for trading the news. Please keep us updated. Now back to work I go.... :-(
~Shard~
04-16-2007 01:33 PM
No problem guys. If you have any follow-up questions or would like me to elaborate on anything I mentioned such as seasonality, technicals, etc. just let me know. :cool:
nhallmark
damn CMC :mad: I got another requote on UK CPI. :rolleyes: Did you guys trade?
04-17-2007 01:33 AM
Music_Producer
Quote:
04-17-2007 01:37 AM
Originally Posted by nhallmark (Post 3556258) damn CMC :mad: I got another requote on UK CPI. :rolleyes: Did you guys trade?
Hey! I think they've put us together.. lol. Got a re-quote as well.. this would have been one hell of a trade 40-50 EASY pips. :mad: :mad: :mad: CMC should stand for c*nt motherf*kers c*nts.. sorry, just had to vent.
nhallmark
04-17-2007 02:03 AM
Well I made 1 pip on ZEW because CMC wouldn't let me out again. Let me tell you how happy I am :rolleyes:

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Music_Producer
04-17-2007 02:08 AM
What size are you trading with? I narrowed my down to 100,000 units.. and still get re-quotes. So I'm going to try with 50,000 (.. yeah.. not at all worth it staying up for trading with that small lots.. but just to see if it gives me a re-quote or lets it go through)
nhallmark
04-17-2007 02:15 AM
yeah, I was thinking it might be the lot sizes because of that requote on NZD retail sales last week...I was trading $600K on that, but on UK CPI today I was trading $200K and I still got a requote. ...then, on ZEW I was trading $300K and I got through ne. I looked at my order for UK CPI(or my attempted order) and I clicked at 1.9838 and the chart was gapping up at that time...I would say, "oh how can they ll me in the gap" to be fair but I've heard of them manipulating the price more than once. I could have already trippled my account this month and they would let me trade :mad: Im sure Ill nd a solution soon though. Edit: I just looked at MT4...no gap, so CMC could have lled me :rolleyes:
Music_Producer
04-17-2007 03:02 AM
So we have a great strategy that works.. but no way to actually execute it :rolleyes: Sooner or later, brokers will just prevent us from trading successfully. I'm gonna try the US CPI report with Oanda and see how that goes. I'll accept the spread.. if the deviation is big enough, hopefully I can make some prot. I just don't want to see another re-quote.
Music_Producer
Quote:
04-17-2007 05:10 AM
Originally Posted by ~Shard~ (Post 3553043) Next stop, 2.000 on the pound!
More like 2.040 right now :eek: So much for all those technical traders who were going to carry out massive shorts at 2.000.. I feel bad for them! Never get in front of a running train.. Let's see how the US CPI comes out. They have housing starts as well.. ahh, everything seems to be weak nowadays. I might trade EUR/USD on this one.. but then again.. GBP's gone up so high.. that if the report comes out USD +ve.. GBP should drop 80 pips or so.
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~Shard~
04-17-2007 05:37 AM
Damn, would have been a good trade but I was a little slow this morning and didn't want to pull the trigger. I was about to buy GBPUSD but for me at least, the quote on CMC shot up from 2.0020 to 2.0040 instantly, and I didn't want to enter on fear that I'd be getting in on the high and miss the spike - I didn't realize there would be some further upside. Ah well, I'm sure you guys did well (barring CMC playing games with you! :eek: ) and I'll get in on the next one. I did short the USDJPY last night though based on my technicals and make 27 pips, so I'm quite happy about that trade. :cool: Anywho, next report is in about half an hour I believe...
Music_Producer
04-17-2007 05:39 AM
Didn't trade this one.. deviation wasn't big enough to justify the 20 pip spread. How did you do nathan? Were you smacked with a re-quote again? (hope not!) Btw, just received an email from PFG.. regarding their cnx platform. Responding to my trading inquiry - "You can trade whatever method you like.. we do not keep a dealing book, and have no interest in how you trade other than making commission from volume/month" Nice huh :D Now if they actually live up to it.. let's see..
Music_Producer
AUD/JPY almost at 100! :D
04-17-2007 05:44 AM
Music_Producer
Quote:
04-17-2007 05:45 AM
Originally Posted by ~Shard~ (Post 3556669) I didn't realize there would be some further upside.
Yeah, it's scary how the pound is so bullish. Wow, it just broke past 2.0060. Where's it going?!!
~Shard~
Let me know what you nd with PFG Music_Producer if you proceed with them... Not enough movement again on the US data a minute ago - didn't trade...
04-17-2007 06:18 AM
Man, where is the pound going?!? The bulls are out in full force yet you'd think there's got to be a bit of a correction and a breather soon at this pace... That being said, I see bad things ahead in the US economy's future, so long term who knows...
nhallmark
04-17-2007 06:19 AM
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I actually slept in :p I think Im going to get a laptop so I can just lay in bed and trade and then fall back asleep ;) Man, I hope that's true about PFG...didnt you say their minimum was $50K ? Good job on the tech. trade, Shard! ;) Err...if you dont mind, what time frame did you have and what indicators were you using?
~Shard~
Quote:
04-17-2007 06:26 AM
Originally Posted by nhallmark (Post 3556782) Good job on the tech. trade, Shard! ;) Err...if you dont mind, what time frame did you have and what indicators were you using?
Not at all... Perfect round top (almost!) which signals a short, a downward cross of the 89MA thru the 200MA and the 21MA thru the 9MA (short-term short signals) and an inability to break through resistance, nor hold support levels. I left the trade going overnight as I slept since the time period on this type of a trade is several hours, but not any longer (due to fear of a trend reversal). Put in a TP and SL at key support/resistance points and my TP hit. :cool: Now that you have me looking at my chart again, it looks like it might be ready for another short (especially now thank to the US data). I'll investigate further and might open another position... :cool:
~Shard~
04-17-2007 07:26 AM
Thanks Nathan I rode USDJPY down from 119.21 to 119.11, partially thanks to you making me reference my charts again for my previous post! Luckily I got out, as it seems to have recovered a bit... overall trend might still be down, but I had to head into work and couldn't monitor it anymore and didn't have time to gure out appropriate stops... Your 5 pips will be in the mail to you tomorrow. ;) :D
OceanView
04-17-2007 07:39 AM
The pound is unstoppable today. Glad you guys made some money. I am begining to realize the most dicult aspect of news trading is, getting up at all odd hours. It has been 2 days in a row now that has been difcult for me to get up. Better get a second alarm clock.
nhallmark
Quote:
04-17-2007 10:47 AM
Originally Posted by ~Shard~ (Post 3556959) Thanks Nathan I rode USDJPY down from 119.21 to 119.11, partially thanks to you making me
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reference my charts again for my previous post! Luckily I got out, as it seems to have recovered a bit... overall trend might still be down, but I had to head into work and couldn't monitor it anymore and didn't have time to gure out appropriate stops... Your 5 pips will be in the mail to you tomorrow. ;) :D
lol...my brain checked out when you started talking about the different MAs. After I stopped doing the vanessafx thing, I've just been playing around with different indicators in MT4 to nd what ts me instead of following all these other technical systems. Im pretty settled now on stochastics and the 200SMA along with pivots, s/r and basic price action(using candles). I also use GMMA sometimes. I've been mainly using a 15 minute chart and sometimes 30 or 1hr for conrmation...made 16 pips yesterday on AUD/USD and 4 pips today on EUR/USD. Its just demo, of course, because Im still learning what the indicators are telling me but Im having more success with my own made up "system" than I ever did following all the other technical systems...which proves the point about the "system tting your personality" I guess. Anyway, thanks for sharing your setup :) One question, though, when you say "rounded top" are you using a line chart or is that a candle or OHLC pattern that Im not familiar with?
~Shard~
Quote:
04-17-2007 12:54 PM
Originally Posted by nhallmark (Post 3557640) Anyway, thanks for sharing your setup :) One question, though, when you say "rounded top" are you using a line chart or is that a candle or OHLC pattern that Im not familiar with?
No problem. :) I have other indicators which I look at as well, like RSI for instance, but in this case those were the ones I was going off. As for a rounded top, I am referring to the MACD, not the bars/candles of the stock/currency pair itself.
nhallmark nhallmark
Quote:
04-17-2007 01:32 PM 04-17-2007 03:54 PM
no trade on NZD CPI...I didn't think it deviated enough, but I guess I was wrong. Oh, ok...I thinkPosted I know by what your talking now...its like the MACD has formed a rounded top literally and Originally ~Shard~ (Postabout 3558084) according to that it *should* come back down and possibly cross, right? (or come downbut enough to grab a No problem. :) I have other indicators which I look at as well, like RSI for instance, in this case Music_Producer few pips before starts back up) 04-17-2007 04:19 PM those were it the ones I was going off. Phew..no this time.. pips on nzd :D not the bars/candles of the stock/currency pair As forre-quotes a rounded top, I am30 referring to thetrade MACD, itself.
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OceanView
Quote:
04-17-2007 04:54 PM
Originally Posted by Music_Producer (Post 3558894) Phew..no re-quotes this time.. 30 pips on nzd trade :D
Awesome! Were you trading in small lots or large?
Music_Producer
Quote:
04-17-2007 05:06 PM
Originally Posted by OceanView (Post 3559003) Awesome! Were you trading in small lots or large?
This was a large lot.. a million units.. so yeah, made a decent prot in a *long* time!
astro1
04-17-2007 07:04 PM
ok so this is my 1st day with a demo account with Oanda. After days of reading I gured it was playtime. Needless to say I got my a$$ kicked. Thank God for demo accounts. I tried to use Bollinger,MACD etc. to predict trends and in about a dozen trades am down 50 pips $50. (trading 10,000 units at 20:1) So much for the 5 second window and trying to be fast enough to get in on the up/downswing. Either I was too slow, or my stop kicked me out. Lesson learned and I am indebted to the guy that invented demo accounts. Back to the books for further study. This was during the day when the swings on the board were wild, I tried EUR/GBR, GBR/USD, USD/JPY just to get a feel. On the bright side, in the evening I pulled the window back to the 30 min level, checked the overall trend and on 4 trades made 25 pips mainly on GPB/USD and also USD/JPY. Just wanted you guys to know that even though I lost today, your posts do help and inspire. Richard
~Shard~
04-17-2007 07:15 PM
Thanks for the update. Keep a positive attitude and remain vigilant. Learn from your mistakes as well - to use a couple favorite phrases of mine: "If something is worth doing, it's worth doing wrong initially." "Nothing is a waste of time if you use the experience wisely." Also, stay focused. There is a wealth of information, strategies, etc. in this thread and you will not succeed if you try and take them all in at once. News trading, fades, spikes, MACD, SMAs, CPI, PPI, the list goes on.
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Plus there are so many currency pairs. I would recommend just focusing on a couple major ones and that's it - especially while you're learning. Good luck to you and pass along any questions you might have. :cool:
Music_Producer
04-18-2007 01:38 AM
Well the minutes didn't change.. but the claimant count came out surprisingly low.. so I bought gbp/usd (on Oanda) After a 20 pip spread, still landed up netting about 11 pips.. so, fairly good trade. :) On the tech side, how long do you guys think this gbp rally will last? This is the rst time since 13-15 years, that it has cracked the 2.000 level.
~Shard~
04-18-2007 05:51 AM
I don't know about the GBPUSD, but I have a feeling it's going to pull back and take a breather before it continues its climb, just since it's climbed so much so fast in recent times. I think the overall trend is up though, unless bad things start happening with the UK economy - because the US economy is sure in for some bumpy roads ahead! On another note I decided to short the entire NASDAQ. Let's see how that plays out over the next week or so.... :cool:
Music_Producer
Quote:
04-18-2007 06:16 AM
Originally Posted by ~Shard~ (Post 3560515) I don't know about the GBPUSD, but I have a feeling it's going to pull back and take a breather before it continues its climb, just since it's climbed so much so fast in recent times. I think the overall trend is up though, unless bad things start happening with the UK economy - because the US economy is sure in for some bumpy roads ahead! On another note I decided to short the entire NASDAQ. Let's see how that plays out over the next week or so.... :cool:
Man, I wish I had the guts to keep a trade hold on like that for so long.. I don't think I would get enough sleep.. probably keep checking the trade just as frequently as I come to MR to waste time :p Then again, you are probably so sure of what you're doing when it comes to long term trades. When you short the nasdaq.. you're shorting the QQQ right? Nathan, did you gure out about the currency futures thing? I signed up for demos with a couple of sites.. but their platforms are confusing. I can't even nd the euro/pound futures! Sometimes I do, but then the platform doesn't give me any further information. It also seems like there is no way to quickly execute a buy/sell signal.. it's more like placing a proper trade (like you would to a broker) So how would you trade the news with futures? Maybe I haven't come across the right service provider yet, I'll keep looking.. if you nd something though, let us know.
~Shard~
04-18-2007 06:42 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Music_Producer (Post 3560569) Man, I wish I had the guts to keep a trade hold on like that for so long.. I don't think I would get enough sleep.. probably keep checking the trade just as frequently as I come to MR to waste time :p Then again, you are probably so sure of what you're doing when it comes to long term trades. When you short the nasdaq.. you're shorting the QQQ right?
Yeah, it can be hard on the nerves sometimes, but it all comes down to the type of trade you're doing. With news trading, yeah, you want to get in an out quickly - especially with how fast the currency market has the potential to move. I would argue the stock market is less volatile in this respect, in general. That being said, if I was thinking that today and today only the Nasdaq was going to tank (due to a ton of bad news, RIM's network going down, etc. :p ;)) then I would look at it as a short term trade as well and wouldn't hold it for that long. In this specic case however, quite a few technicals are pointing towards a correction, over time, of the major US indices. So, even if I haven't entered at the high (which is most likely the case!) I'll take a couple days of loss of need be in order to realize the eventual gains. As I said, I see this happening over the next few weeks - no quick movements as with currencies. It's the same with many of the stocks I own. Look at Canadian my bank stocks - BMO, BNS, LB, TD - sure, they see their ups and downs, but looks at their charts over the past 5 years - can't argue with that - and as a result, some of those stocks I've been holding for years! Sure, I enter and exit to lock in prot at different times, but I am still long term holding them. Plus, they have excellent yields and pay out very nice quarterly dividends. Plus, bank stocks never go down. ;) :cool: So anyway, yeah, it all depends what your strategy is. If I'm riding a short term wave, some bad news, or economic reports in the forex world, I'll only be in a trade for a short period of time. If I am bullish on something long term though, such as Gold, Oil, Natural Gas, whatever, then I have no problems holding a longer position. Oh, and I'm actually trading the composite NDAQ100 through CMC. You can nd it in the US - CFD - Indices basket. :cool:
nhallmark
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04-18-2007 08:16 AM
Originally Posted by Music_Producer (Post 3560569) Nathan, did you gure out about the currency futures thing? I signed up for demos with a couple of sites.. but their platforms are confusing. I can't even nd the euro/pound futures! Sometimes I do, but then the platform doesn't give me any further information. It also seems like there is no way to quickly execute a buy/sell signal.. it's more like placing a proper trade (like you would to a broker) So how would you trade the news with futures? Maybe I haven't come across the right service provider yet, I'll keep looking.. if you nd something though, let us know.
Yeah, I got the demo of that RealTick software from Terra Nova :eek: Its almost impossible to gure out and then once you do it feels more like spreadsheet trading than an actual platform. I nally gured it out for spot forex and I watched NZD CPI with it yesterday and the price stayed at 7444 the whole time when it was going crazy on CMC.
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Im not sure if its a platform issue though because GBP/USD was moving around like normal. Im at the point right now where I've gured out how to do 1 click execution but, for example, if you want to buy 100,000(1 lot) the "commision" is $74,000. I dont know whats up with that, Im sure Im doing something wrong, but I will let you guys know if I gure it out. I signed up for a demo with hotspotfx to see about their spreads and theyre actually pretty good...0-1 on EUR/USD but I haven't watched it during news yet. I emailed hotspot about news trading and they responded.... "Thank you for expressing interest in the Hotspot FXr dealing system. We do not have a trading desk. Our partner banks provide the excellent price spreads and liquidity on our trading platform. Therefore, we have no "policy" on news trading. You can trade to your heart's desire, as much as your account margin allows " The catch is this...in their user agreement, it says that it is possible to get lled at off market rates and a trade will not be cancelled soley because of that. So, Ive emailed him back and asked if they have some type of limit order that would be like a "ll or kill" within 5-10 pips. I guess we'll see what he says. Oh yeah, they dont make the spread, they charge $3 per side per $100,000 so its roughly 1/2 pip commision. As far as futures, I have no idea...I guess Im going to check babypips or one of those sites to gure it all out and then Ill try to get it set up on that terra nova platform before the end of the week. I'll let you guys know. One more thing, Terra Nova lets you trade USD/ISK ...that's Iceland Kronas :D However, Im still confused because I cant gure out if the spread is 10, 100, or 1000. Either way, I also found this... http://service-center.everbank.com/d...s/wm_Guide.asp Their homepage is www.everbank.com They let you have a US FDIC insured savings account denominated in Iceland Kronas so you can make that damn interest :D It says somewhere on their site that the rate is like 12.55% right now Anyway, I thought I would let you guys know about that.
OceanView
04-18-2007 02:37 PM
Thanks for the info Nathan. Hope that you can work out the details and make some successful trades. I have been busy with a new MBP that I purchased.:) My rst Intel Mac. Trying to install BootCamp and XP Pro on it now so that I can trade 4X on it.
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Music_Producer
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04-18-2007 03:54 PM
Originally Posted by nhallmark (Post 3560888) One more thing, Terra Nova lets you trade USD/ISK ...that's Iceland Kronas :D
That realtick platform is more like realpain! I wish we could trade ISK/JPY :p Yeah, that interest is killer.. but they convert the USD into ISK.. so if the icelandic economy crashes.. those interest rate gains will be nothing compared to the actual loss. It's worth checking out the usd/isk ratio over the last few years though, to get an idea of how much of a range we can expect to encounter.
astro1
04-18-2007 06:13 PM
Question for someone. GPB/USD on that one I expected a gradual rise so I went long hoping to take a prot at the end of the day. At 19:55 this one dropped from 2.0092 to 2.0069 within 10 mins and another 12 pips within minutes after that. My 11 pip stop got blown away rather fast needless to say. The question is what should I have set the stops (if any) when doing a 4-6 hour trade and expecting a rise of about 30-35 pips during that time? I entered at 2.067 and was trying for 2.100 for the night. Richard
~Shard~
Quote:
04-18-2007 07:54 PM
Originally Posted by astro1 (Post 3562854) Question for someone. GPB/USD on that one I expected a gradual rise so I went long hoping to take a prot at the end of the day. At 19:55 this one dropped from 2.0092 to 2.0069 within 10 mins and another 12 pips within minutes after that. My 11 pip stop got blown away rather fast needless to say. The question is what should I have set the stops (if any) when doing a 4-6 hour trade and expecting a rise of about 30-35 pips during that time? I entered at 2.067 and was trying for 2.100 for the night.
Views of different charts over different time periods will give you different pictures. If you were looking at a trade over a 4-6 hour time period, then you should see on your chart that there was the potential (which was realized) for a MACD crossover of the 200 and 89 MAs which would, from a technical perspective, form a support level @ 2.0073. I would have, as a result, set a stop at around 2.0065, just to allow for a bit of leeway. But after a clear signal move below this point, I would take a close look at the shorter term MAs (8 and 21) and see what they're doing. In this case, the were trending down as well, so you should know that the trade is denitely going against you. A stop around 2.0065 would have cut your losses in this case, but of course hindsight is 20/20. :o ;) Also, the MACD was forming a round top (short signal) at the precise level which you bought, so if I would have received this indicator I actually would have shorted if anything (although I doubt I would have taken the trade in reality.) So again, it comes down to timeframes. In this case, the short-term trend was down - that being said, I believe the overall longer term trend is still up. So, you have to ask yourself what your trading horizon is. If is is shorter term, look at the short term signals - in this case, they are short. If it is longer term, look at the longer term signals (which are long) and bearing this in mind, place your stops accordingly. For instance, if you were looking at this as a longer term trade, you would have it in your head that you would be holding it
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for a longer period of time, so a stop loss of 20-40 pips is probably inappropriate, since it could hit in the short term. Anyway, I think you get the idea. let me know if you have any other questions. :cool:
astro1
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04-19-2007 05:41 AM
Originally Posted by ~Shard~ (Post 3563091) (which was realized) for a MACD crossover of the 200 and 89 MAs which would, from a technical perspective, form a support level @ 2.0073. I would have, as a result, set a stop at around 2.0065, just to allow for a bit of leeway. But after a clear signal move below this point, I would take a close look at the shorter term MAs (8 and 21)
Thanks Shard. Now to get out the dictionary :mad: 200MA, 89 MA, I went back, can't see that so I guess it is back to the MACD lesson to gure that out.
~Shard~
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04-19-2007 05:53 AM
Originally Posted by astro1 (Post 3564125) Thanks Shard. Now to get out the dictionary :mad: 200MA, 89 MA, I went back, can't see that so I guess it is back to the MACD lesson to gure that out.
MAs are Moving Averages. The 2 most common types are SMAs (Simple Moving Averages) and EMAs (Exponential Moving Averages). The number refers to the days involved, i.e. the length of the trend. 200-day Moving Averages (i.e. the 200 MA) indicate longer trends whereas 8 or 21 day moving averages are indicative of shorter term direction. Crossovers are key as well, and are really fairly intuitive - if longer term trends cross over shorter term trends, or vice versa, this can be a sign of short term or long term (depending on the MAs) direction. Hope this helps a bit. Also, made 4 pips on the EURUSD from the US unemployment #s. I squeezed every pip I could out of that one! ;) :cool:
OceanView
Quote:
04-19-2007 03:13 PM
Originally Posted by ~Shard~ (Post 3564150) MAs are Moving Averages. The 2 most common types are SMAs (Simple Moving Averages) and EMAs (Exponential Moving Averages). The number refers to the days involved, i.e. the length of the trend. 200-day Moving Averages (i.e. the 200 MA) indicate longer trends whereas 8 or 21 day moving averages are indicative of shorter term direction. Crossovers are key as well, and are really fairly intuitive - if longer term trends cross over shorter term trends, or vice versa, this can be a sign of short term or long term (depending on the MAs) direction. Hope this helps a bit. Also, made 4 pips on the EURUSD from the US unemployment #s. I squeezed every pip I could out
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of that one! ;) :cool:
I tried technical analysis before, just spend too much time trying to analyze everything. I really like trading the news strategy much better as it is simple and fast. I don't have to stare at the screen all day. If you are good and procient at technical analysis, good for you. Hope you make more pips doing that then trading the news.
~Shard~
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04-19-2007 03:34 PM
Originally Posted by OceanView (Post 3565878) I tried technical analysis before, just spend too much time trying to analyze everything. I really like trading the news strategy much better as it is simple and fast. I don't have to stare at the screen all day. If you are good and procient at technical analysis, good for you. Hope you make more pips doing that then trading the news.
Yeah, I guess when you''ve been doing it as long as I have on the stock markets, it comes pretty natural. I can go home from work, re up 10 different stocks, pull up saved templates I have of certain technical indicators/methods I use and recognize & analyze potential trades in probably 10 minutes at - no time at all. So no, it is denitely not staring at the screen all day! My goal is to eventually be able to read charts like the Matrix, where all those complex characters actually make sense to certain people! :D ;) Seriously, I've been trying to port this over to forex with some success so far. Slow but sure. But I agree, one of the reasons I have gotten into forex is due to the news trading. As you say, nice, simple and quick. You know when a report is coming out and what it's supposed to be, and it's never "off hours" so you can actually trade the report if you're around. And if your broker doesn't screw you over. :rolleyes: In the end, you need a good mix in my opinion of technicals and fundamentals - you can't have one without the other, or else you might as well be trading with one arm behind your back. That being said, certain methods work better for different people in different scenarios, so if news trading is your forte and what you like, then stick to it - just don't make a single trade if it isn't based on a news report. Same goes vice versa. ;) :cool:
nhallmark
Hey, Music_Producer, here's a chart of USD/ISK going back to '97....
04-19-2007 05:37 PM
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But, yeah, with the US interest rates, NZD/JPY or AUD/JPY is just as good. I googled ISK/JPY and JPY/ISK but nothing came up. Oh, and I had researched a lot about their government, economy, etc. a few months ago and aside from a volcano 50 something years ago, their government and economy have been stable for like 800 years :p The entire population of the country is like 300,000 people. Anyway, I didn't trade CAD CPI this morning because I was paying attention to the Core # and by the time TTN released it, it was already too late. Hopefully, we'll have a good trade tomorrow morning to end the week good :D Edit: Those are monthly candles in that chart...just so you know what your looking at.
astro1
Hey Shard.
04-19-2007 06:05 PM
thanks for the explanation above re MA's. Like I said learning something new and completely different sucks at times. Another question during the day I have been watching GPB/USD and EUR/USD. trying to gure out technicals (don't ask how I did!) At one point both pairs went nuts and changed at the same time, must have been a news release I guess. Is it normal for multiple currency pairs to simultaneously jump if they share a common currency like USD? Which site has the best news listings and fastest updates? I have
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come across many that have news and their release times but some are not complete?
~Shard~
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04-19-2007 07:15 PM
Originally Posted by astro1 (Post 3566449) Hey Shard. thanks for the explanation above re MA's. Like I said learning something new and completely different sucks at times. Another question during the day I have been watching GPB/USD and EUR/USD. trying to gure out technicals (don't ask how I did!) At one point both pairs went nuts and changed at the same time, must have been a news release I guess. Is it normal for multiple currency pairs to simultaneously jump if they share a common currency like USD? Which site has the best news listings and fastest updates? I have come across many that have news and their release times but some are not complete?
No problem. :) To answer your question, yes, if there is negative US news, then any pair with USD in it will probably react. However, some more than others. For instance, when myself and Music_Producer trade US news, we usually trade GBPUSD instead of EURUSD. Why? Because it has a higher beta. (No, you don't have to go Google that term, I'll explain... ;)) Beta is a measure of volatility - the higher the beat, the more a security/currency pair/whatever will react relative to a constant. In this case, on US news, GBPUSD typically has more of a swing to it than EURUSD. If you want to look at a fun chart, look at GBPJPY as well. :D Hundreds of pips a day on that monster... As for news, the economic calendar on Oanda's site is pretty comprehensive, but the best one I've found is from forexfactory. Both sites will tell you what releases are coming out when and in forexfactory's case, what the expected and previous #s were. In terms of getting the actual news real-time though, you'd need a service such as TTN, Bloomberg or Reuters - otherwise the trade will always pass you by by the time you get the news and digest it.
Music_Producer
Thanks for that info Nathan, maybe we could do a cross of usd/jpy and usd/isk :p
04-20-2007 01:36 AM
Got a re-quote on the UK retail sales report. Now if I get a re-quote for the Canadian retail sales report, I'm closing my CMC account for good. I'm going to take the next brave step and sign up with PFG's Currenex platform. Shard, just like you.. I found technical trading to work very well with stocks. but forex it never worked for me. The easiest (and relatively safest) trading I would do was buy/sell at support/resistance points.. but quite a few times, because of fundamentals.. currencies have blown past those points by huge margins.. so I gave up on that. And about the stocks going to $0.. I had a stock go from $5 to 5 cents within 2 days.. so I don't go anywhere near stocks now :rolleyes:
nhallmark
got a damn requote on CAD retail sales :mad:
04-20-2007 05:32 AM
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~Shard~
I hear ya, and know where you're coming from Music_Producer. ;)
04-20-2007 05:33 AM
8 pips on the CAD data. Should have been more, but I'll take it nonetheless. Now back to bed... :cool:
OceanView
I tried to trade without TTN today. Results were disastous! :mad: No way that I can react by just watching the charts.
04-20-2007 05:36 AM
Music_Producer
04-20-2007 05:41 AM
Oh boy, I got 30 pips on this one. I was a little faster than usual.. at the edge of my seat and clicked with all gusto .. try doing it a little quicker nathan, I know.. it's tough.. but I think that's the only way to beat the re-quotes. I obviously got lucky this time.. that extra tea I had might have helped! Ocean.. NEVER NEVER NEVER trade news looking at charts! You are entering *after* all the action has taken place. Again, the only reason I'm a little hesitant of signing up with Currenex is because I still don't have a professional news service. I'm sure if I had Bloomberg, I could get in the trade a little earlier and not get any re-quotes or anything like that.
OceanView
Ha ha! I KNOW KNOW KNOW! :) Just have been too cheap to sign up TTN. Will do here shortly. How did you not get a requote? :eek: Did you trade with your CMC account?
04-20-2007 05:44 AM
Music_Producer
04-20-2007 05:47 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by OceanView (Post 3567607) Ha ha! I KNOW KNOW KNOW! :) Just have been too cheap to sign up TTN. Will do here shortly. How did you not get a requote? :eek: Did you trade with your CMC account?
I'm quite surprised too that I didn't get a requote. I *think* it's because I was faster than usual this time. Or maybe, just lucky. I would HATE to be re-quoted if there was a nice interest rate trade, where I could potentially lose out on a 100-120 pip prot, with a huge lot!
nhallmark
Music_Producer, where did you get in?
04-20-2007 05:53 AM
I thought I was damn fast this time because my order showed 1.1272. I'll try to be faster though.
Music_Producer
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04-20-2007 06:01 AM
Originally Posted by nhallmark (Post 3567627) Music_Producer, where did you get in? I thought I was damn fast this time because my order showed 1.1272. I'll try to be faster though.
Nathan, got in at 1.1274.. just 2 pips more. Usually all my orders show pretty good price points.. but they still get re-quotes. I tried out PFG's FX Express platform.. didn't like it. Takes two clicks to complete an order.. and then more to close it.
nhallmark
damn, youre fast :p
04-20-2007 06:34 AM
I think Im going to move over to hotspotfx next week and trade with them for a week or two, then come back to CMC and open an account in my girlfriend's name and not tell them that "she" trades news. Hopefully, that will work until I can get enough for currenex. I read some guy's review of hotspotfx for news trading and he goes "I didn't like it. I only got lled 75% of the time" Really? That's a 75% increase for me right now :p The thing I am scared about with them is slippage becuase they dont give requotes and they have a
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disclaimer about being lled at "off market prices" That's why I am only going with them for a week or two...I'll leave as soon as they start playing games.
Music_Producer
04-21-2007 03:27 AM
Sign up with a good, reliable broker nathan (for hotspotfx) , and that should work out ne. Just skip the highly volatile trades like Non farm report, the spread could potentially go to 50-80 pips. Don't let your interest in forex overtake your interest in music.. like it's happening to me :p Ahhh, I need to get down, blow off the dust from my keyboards and make some music. Btw, back to forex.. I've read that UK brokers are more reliable than Us based brokers. Apparently the UK nancial governing authority - FSA, is more strict than US CFTC and NFA. I wonder if that's true.
nhallmark
YES!!!:D I got 33 pips on AUD CPI. No requotes!:D :D How'd you guys do?
04-23-2007 06:33 PM
Music_Producer
Quote:
04-23-2007 06:48 PM
Originally Posted by nhallmark (Post 3577948) YES!!!:D I got 33 pips on AUD CPI. No requotes!:D :D How'd you guys do?
You beat me :p I got 28 pips.. I got out way too early.. aussie $ kept going down. I like trading aussie reports.. they always move :D
nhallmark
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04-23-2007 07:01 PM
Originally Posted by Music_Producer (Post 3577980) You beat me :p I got 28 pips.. I got out way too early.. aussie $ kept going down. I like trading aussie reports.. they always move :D
Yeah, AUD and NZD reports are my favorite because of the margin requirements...it takes $2000 now to trade 1 lot on GBP/USD but its $800 for AUD and around $750 for NZD...so you can trade twice as much using roughly the same margin. I was trading $600,000 just now, but had that been GBP/USD, I could only get $200,000.
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~Shard~
04-23-2007 07:19 PM
Well done guys! I was at the gym pumping iron during the announcement. ;) That being said, the USDJPY pair has been my friend as of late, as I have had good luck trading it the past few days based on technicals. Made 17 pips on it last night as markets opened and then 14 pips on it this morning before work. Was watching the GBPJPY pair as well - holy crap, talk about a suicide pair! You'd have to be crazy to trade that thing, but if you ever caught it right you'd be looking at hundreds of pips! :eek: I think I'll just leave that one for the time being though, thank you very much... ;) Anyway, I'll be watching the CAD news tomorrow just in case ;) and then the US data an hour later... not much for news though until Wednesday. Any chance the Kiwis will up their rates? ;) :D
Music_Producer
04-23-2007 09:15 PM
Cool shard, what were you working out on? I have shoulders today.. my fav is legs (although i used to hate working out legs earlier) I'm trying to eat 6 times a day, but it's tough and bloody boring (boiled chicken, egg whites, etc) I wouldn't touch gbp/jpy.. scary pair. Tomorrow there's nothing worth trading.. nzd interest rates, I think they're pretty high right now. They might raise them.. what was the nzd cpi .. man i forgot if that came out high or low. Too lazy to research now :p
~Shard~
Quote:
04-23-2007 09:31 PM
Originally Posted by Music_Producer (Post 3578328) Cool shard, what were you working out on? I have shoulders today.. my fav is legs (although i used to hate working out legs earlier) I'm trying to eat 6 times a day, but it's tough and bloody boring (boiled chicken, egg whites, etc)
Today was chest and shoulders, followed by some abs - I usually do opposing muscle groups so that I don't break down my body too much, but I like to mix it up every once and a while as well - gotta keep the muscles guessing so they don't become conditioned to the same exercises over and over - otherwise you'll denitely see diminishing returns. I love legs as well (usually do squat thrusts, lunges, extensions, curls and calf raises) however since I play soccer I can't do a lot of leg workouts or else my cardio won't be my limiting factor on the pitch. ;) I eat about 6 times a day as well, but don't mind it as I try and spice it up as much as possible while still staying healthy and having a good balance between carbs, proteins and fat. In the morning I'll usually have whole grain cereal with whole grain toast, a glass of orange juice and some fruit or a yogurt. In the morning I'll snack on an organic mufn which I make myself (all healthy ingredients, unlike the "cake" you buy at a mufn shop), raisins and an apple, then for lunch I'll have some protein (turkey, etc. sandwich) along with carrots, a banana and a couple cookies (gotta treat yourself every once and a while after all!). In the afternoon I'll snack on other fruits and veggies then have a well-balanced meal for dinner, and always as early as possible - for proper digestion and processing you should eat 6 hours before you go to bed - so I try to never eat past 6-7pm when at all possible. I'll always have a salad full of fresh veggies, steamed carrots, corn, peas, whatever and then protein - chicken or sh usually (all organic, fresh, wild, grain-fed, etc. etc.) It's not that hard to eat healthy and I quite enjoy it. I feel great as a result and have a ton of energy and mental focus. Personally, I don't understand people who don't treat their health as a priority - after all, without it you don't have much! :cool:
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Music_Producer (Post 3578328) I wouldn't touch gbp/jpy.. scary pair. Tomorrow there's nothing worth trading.. nzd interest rates, I think they're pretty high right now. They might raise them.. what was the nzd cpi .. man i forgot if that came out high or low. Too lazy to research now :p
Yeah, I've noticed it has quite the spreads! A couple hundred pips a day seems standard.. :eek: As for tomorrow, yeah, nothing too much to trade but you never know...
OceanView
Hey guys, Wouldn't the GBP/JPY be a good chart for trading in the scalping method? If you just keep your eye on it, you could scalp quite a few pips per day. MP, try eating some salmon in your diet. It beats eating chicken everyday.
04-23-2007 10:34 PM
Music_Producer
Quote:
04-24-2007 12:13 AM
Originally Posted by OceanView (Post 3578492) MP, try eating some salmon in your diet. It beats eating chicken everyday.
I've tried.. but the only time I can eat seafood is back in India, because they make it really delicious with all the avoring, etc. Another thing that sucks is, I hate veggies.. lol. So my favourite meal is exclusively chicken.. it's a great source of protein though.. 1 whole chicken that I usually buy from costco is 120 gm protein.. For veggies, I make a veggie smoothie. :p I'll put broccoli, spinach, carrots, and other veggies in the blender.. put a little tang.. and blend with water.. tastes great! Shard, I'm trying to hit each bodypart twice a week, and I found that it's working for me. I've broken past the 190 lb barrier (I was stuck at 187 for a year!) Now i'm 195.. for me gaining mass is priority.. I used to weigh 120 lbs.. I looked like a clothes hangar :D Eventually I'm hoping to be like Ronnie Coleman, lol.. hey if I aim that high, maybe I'll get somewhere in the middle. Now, back to forex.. tomorrow actually there are 2 reports .. one is the canadian interest rate.. but these canadians, they never do anything exciting ;) Then there are 2 US reports, but they're both pretty signicant and both come out at the same time, so I won't be trading those.
OceanView
2 pip gain on the USD/CAD yeah!
04-24-2007 06:17 AM
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~Shard~
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04-24-2007 06:32 AM
Originally Posted by OceanView (Post 3579112) 2 pip gain on the USD/CAD yeah!
Did you buy or sell? :confused: There was no change to the rate, and if anything, the wording used indicated ination was still a concern which should have pushed the USDCAD pair lower based solely on fundamentals. Just wondering what made you take this trade on non-news and what made you decide to either buy or sell. If you were trading the news, there wasn't a trade, so were you perhaps trading on some other indicator? :confused: Just curious....
OceanView
Quote:
04-24-2007 07:53 AM
Originally Posted by ~Shard~ (Post 3579153) Did you buy or sell? :confused: There was no change to the rate, and if anything, the wording used indicated ination was still a concern which should have pushed the USDCAD pair lower based solely on fundamentals. Just wondering what made you take this trade on non-news and what made you decide to either buy or sell. If you were trading the news, there wasn't a trade, so were you perhaps trading on some other indicator? :confused: Just curious....
I bought based on no change. Meaning that the no change will make the CAD less attractive and the USD more attractive. Am I wrong in my thinking?
~Shard~
Quote:
04-24-2007 08:54 AM
Originally Posted by OceanView (Post 3579407) I bought based on no change. Meaning that the no change will make the CAD less attractive and the USD more attractive. Am I wrong in my thinking?
No, that's a fair assumption, however as I alluded to above, the wording was more hawkish than usual so it could have easily gone the other way from a fundamental point of view. From a technical point of view, the pair has seen so much weakness though that this upward correction was not a surprise with no hike being announced. Thanks for clarifying! :cool:
nhallmark
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I made 8 pips on UK GDP...I was a little hesitant because of the 0.1 deviation but I got a few pips anyway :D Did you guys trade it?
Music_Producer
04-25-2007 05:34 AM
No exciting trades for sure. About 4 pips on eur/usd report.. and then 9 pips on UK report (pound seems to jump up on any little deviation) .. and then 4 pips on the US report.. hardly any deviation. Again, pound went down a bit.. and jumped right back up. I wish there were aussie reports coming out :D Oh wait, nzd interest rate statement and trade balance today.. should be fun.
OceanView
I stayed out on this one as there was too much info to absorb at once.
04-25-2007 05:36 AM
~Shard~
04-25-2007 05:50 AM
Yeah, not many pips to be had today. I didn't trade early this morning (decided to get a good sleep instead as I have a blood donation today) but I traded the US data - based on the #s I would have thought a bigger move, however it didn't happen until after the trade! ;) Made 5 pips on the news and got out - looks like I could have made another 10 if I had stayed in, but then that wouldn't have been news trading now would it? :p ;) NZ announcement could be interesting, too bad I'll be at work for that one...
~Shard~
04-25-2007 07:06 AM
Yes, perfect trade on the EURUSD! :D Bought at 1.3640, sold at 1.3650, pretty much the exact bottom and exact top of the range! :cool: I had my GBPUSD ready to sell, just in case, but didn't think it would happen which I why I focused on my EURUSD instead - I've made a few observations over the months and noticed that for this specic report, bad news has always made the currency move, however good news (unless it's really good news) has resulted in not much movement... Anywho, I'll be at work at the time, but good luck to everyone on the NZD trades today! :)
Music_Producer
Crap re-quote! NZD went up 20 pips i think, interest rate was hiked to 7.75%
04-25-2007 02:03 PM
OceanView
OMG! that was a wild ride! Can anyone explain why it was so volatile? Also, why is it now lower than before the announcement?
04-25-2007 02:06 PM
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Music_Producer
Quote:
04-25-2007 02:13 PM
Originally Posted by OceanView (Post 3584126) OMG! that was a wild ride! Can anyone explain why it was so volatile? Also, why is it now lower than before the announcement?
You have to look at the price levels before the news report. NZD/USD has been climbing up quite a bit since the last week.. because most people did expect a rate hike. So eventually, when the hike happened.. it didn't have much room to move up as it was already so high. And then there has to be correction, prot taking.. had NZ kept rates the same, you would have seen a 100 pip drop.
nhallmark
04-25-2007 02:14 PM
man, I stayed out of that one. I saw it jump up 20 or so pips before TTN said anything and I had been reading today that the central bank wants NZD to go down so when I saw it jump up, I just decided not to trade. OceanView, I think the reason it went down after the report was because the central bank guy said that NZD is at "unjustiably high levels". I could be wrong but thats the only reason I see for it going down. Edit: Yeah, what MP said.
OceanView
04-25-2007 02:22 PM
Thanks for the explanations guys. I am still learning and trying to understand everything about this market, if that's possible :rolleyes: . Hope we can make some pips on the NZD trade balance report coming up.
Music_Producer
Quote:
04-25-2007 02:27 PM
Originally Posted by nhallmark (Post 3584163) OceanView, I think the reason it went down after the report was because the central bank guy said that NZD is at "unjustiably high levels". I could be wrong but thats the only reason I see for it going down.
Haha.. these guys are funny. They always talk about how high aussie $, nz $ is.. etc.. but these carry trade hedge fund managers don't give a damn. They just want the high interest returns.. apart from the interest rate, there is really no reason why the nz $ should be so high. The extremely high levels are hurting nz exporters. It's a weird situation, they probably have tons of money in the bank from all the investments, but their local economy is probably going to start to suffer.
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nhallmark
Quote:
04-25-2007 02:31 PM
Originally Posted by Music_Producer (Post 3584206) Haha.. these guys are funny. They always talk about how high aussie $, nz $ is.. etc.. but these carry trade hedge fund managers don't give a damn. They just want the high interest returns.. apart from the interest rate, there is really no reason why the nz $ should be so high. The extremely high levels are hurting nz exporters. It's a weird situation, they probably have tons of money in the bank from all the investments, but their local economy is probably going to start to suffer.
Yeah, that's basically what I was reading this morning. Now, Im looking at the NZD/USD chart and it looks a lot like NFP :p Do you think anyone will care enough about the trade balance since they just hiked rates...i.e. do you think we will still see a move on it? Edit: Have you guys checked out AAPL after the earnings report? Its nally over 100.
OceanView
Quote:
04-25-2007 02:53 PM
Originally Posted by nhallmark (Post 3584217) Have you guys checked out AAPL after the earnings report? Its nally over 100.
About time. I wonder if they will do a 2 for 1 split.
nhallmark
No trade on NZD trade balance...it didn't move anyway.
04-25-2007 03:48 PM
Are you guys going to watch the CAD monetary policy report in the morning. FF has it marked red so Ill probably watch it but I wouldnt have a clue what to trade on if there was a trade.
OceanView
04-25-2007 03:57 PM
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Originally Posted by nhallmark (Post 3584429) No trade on NZD trade balance...it didn't move anyway. Are you guys going to watch the CAD monetary policy report in the morning. FF has it marked red so Ill probably watch it but I wouldnt have a clue what to trade on if there was a trade.
I won't be trading the CAD in the morning. I don't think there will be any signicant announcements, but then who knows. :confused: Gonna take the time to get some work done. But I will be looking to trade on Friday's GDP reports. Which report is more important by the way, the Annualized or Deator Annualized?
nhallmark
04-26-2007 04:52 PM
Damn it :mad: I got a requote on japan industrial production. It was only good for 10-12 pips but still.. Did you guys trade it?
~Shard~
04-26-2007 04:57 PM
I watched it, but with several reports coming out like that I decided not to trade it, as it whipsawed around fairly well - up 10 pips, down 10 pips... I'll keep an eye on the NZ news tonight and of course there's the good old BoJ! :D
Music_Producer
Quote:
04-26-2007 05:23 PM
Originally Posted by nhallmark (Post 3587874) Damn it :mad: I got a requote on japan industrial production. It was only good for 10-12 pips but still.. Did you guys trade it?
Nope, I don't like trading jpy reports.. they don't really give me good prots.. and if they do, they keep jumping up and down. sidetracking again, but any of you have a plasma tv/projector? I want a plasma, but don't like the way it looks up close.. then again, the projector seems much more appealing.. I'll be using it for movies and playing games at home. I've seen a few plasmas in studios but again, didn't quite like them much. Edit : - I'm only trading US GDP tomorrow
~Shard~
04-26-2007 05:34 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Music_Producer (Post 3587988) I'm only trading US GDP tomorrow
Should be interesting - the GDP Deator Annualized is supposed to be higher than previous, yet the GDP Annualized is supposed to be lower than previous... hmmm...

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nhallmark
I got 29 pips on US GDP!!!:D I traded EUR/USD this time just to switch it up. Its April 27th and I have successfully made 300% of my account this month ;) :cool: damn, thats a good way to end the week :D
04-27-2007 05:34 AM
Music_Producer
04-27-2007 05:36 AM
Lol @dumb feds.. practically every US report is disappointing. Made 21 pips today.. could have made 40 pips, but f@cking CMC.. wouldn't let me close my position for at least 30 seconds. The message "Please wait before placing next order" kept popping up.. if I ever get my hands on the operator who was giving me that bullsh*t.. damn!! Luckily, gbp stayed well above pre-news price. Bah.. I had a feeling GDP was going to be disappointing anyway, I don't know why I didn't buy gbp/usd earlier.. guess I didn't want to take a risk.
OceanView
Quote:
04-27-2007 05:36 AM
Originally Posted by nhallmark (Post 3589232) I got 29 pips on US GDP!!!:D I traded EUR/USD this time just to switch it up. Its April 27th and I have successfully made 300% of my account this month ;) :cool: damn, thats a good way to end the week :D
WOW! That's awesome! Are you still using CMC Markets?
nhallmark
Yeah, Im still with CMC. Im opening an account with ADM but thats still in progress...I'll let you know how they are once I get my account set up. Did you trade it, OceanView?
04-27-2007 05:42 AM
Music_Producer
04-27-2007 05:50 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nhallmark (Post 3589232) I got 29 pips on US GDP!!!:D I traded EUR/USD this time just to switch it up. Its April 27th and I have successfully made 300% of my account this month ;) :cool: damn, thats a good way to end the week :D
Nice job!! Pretty soon you won't even care to keep an account of how much gain you've been making.. you'll be so used to it ;) That is, of course, if our brokers don't mess with our trades. Nice start to the weekend.. and it's me and the wife's anniversary.. combine that with a protable week.. *bliss* :D
OceanView
Quote:
04-27-2007 05:59 AM
Originally Posted by nhallmark (Post 3589248) Yeah, Im still with CMC. Im opening an account with ADM but thats still in progress...I'll let you know how they are once I get my account set up. Did you trade it, OceanView?
Yes I traded. Just made 3 pips. But thats because I am still using OandA. Hope to become as good as you soon.
~Shard~
04-27-2007 07:33 AM
I took the day off work today so decided to sleep in rather than trade. Good job though everyone! I once again entered a technical trade last night on the GBPUSD based on several indicators I received (MACD, heavy support levels just below my entry to limit potential downside, RSI, etc.) plus the fact that I had a hunch the US news would be bad, thus lifting/protecting the price even further on an upward move since I couldn't be around to actually trade the news. Regardless, I had tight stops if the US news was bad.... Anyway, I entered @ 1.9883 and had my TP @ 1.9940, a key resistance level, being the 300-day MA. Just as I thought, it consolidated a fair bit there before making it's next decision on where it was going to go. So as it turns out, I got out before the news even came out, thus missing out on further upside, but since I was not able to watch the trade and was sleeping, I think the strategy I employed was sound, and above all else, not greedy. :cool: So, I'm becoming more comfortable with some of my methods now for technical trades. It seems like it will be a good compliment to news trading (which I still nd easier and more fun!) :D ;)
astro1
04-27-2007 08:24 AM
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ok can anyone help enlighten me please? About 11:08 this morning all the mayor currencies took a dive against the USD. GBP,EUR and even AUD dropped. Each one lost about 30-40 pips yet there was no news scheduled then. Nearest thing I see is 11:05 where russian president Putin says something about mutual destruction if the US puts up a missile shield. Anyone here can explain the drop and why?
OceanView
Quote:
04-27-2007 09:59 AM
Originally Posted by ~Shard~ (Post 3589503) I took the day off work today so decided to sleep in rather than trade. Good job though everyone! I once again entered a technical trade last night on the GBPUSD based on several indicators I received (MACD, heavy support levels just below my entry to limit potential downside, RSI, etc.) plus the fact that I had a hunch the US news would be bad, thus lifting/protecting the price even further on an upward move since I couldn't be around to actually trade the news. Regardless, I had tight stops if the US news was bad.... Anyway, I entered @ 1.9883 and had my TP @ 1.9940, a key resistance level, being the 300-day MA. Just as I thought, it consolidated a fair bit there before making it's next decision on where it was going to go. So as it turns out, I got out before the news even came out, thus missing out on further upside, but since I was not able to watch the trade and was sleeping, I think the strategy I employed was sound, and above all else, not greedy. :cool: So, I'm becoming more comfortable with some of my methods now for technical trades. It seems like it will be a good compliment to news trading (which I still nd easier and more fun!) :D ;)
That's great Shard. Wish I could make money in my sleep too. :D Is there a basic methodology that you could teach us on technical trading or is it so involved that I need a PhD? :)
Music_Producer
Quote:
04-27-2007 12:52 PM
Originally Posted by astro1 (Post 3589668) ok can anyone help enlighten me please? About 11:08 this morning all the mayor currencies took a dive against the USD. GBP,EUR and even AUD dropped. Each one lost about 30-40 pips yet there was no news scheduled then. Nearest thing I see is 11:05 where russian president Putin says something about mutual destruction if the US puts up a missile shield. Anyone here can explain the drop and why?
It's a market, prices go up and down. If you bought something at 2.00, wouldn't you sell it at 2.50 for a prot? It doesn't matter if there is news or no news, prot taking always takes place. All the banks who shorted the US$, probably started closing their positions to make a prot.
astro1
04-27-2007 01:12 PM
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Originally Posted by Music_Producer (Post 3590420) It's a market, prices go up and down. If you bought something at 2.00, wouldn't you sell it at 2.50 for a prot? It doesn't matter if there is news or no news, prot taking always takes place. All the banks who shorted the US$, probably started closing their positions to make a prot.
Thanks for that, I just wasn't sure if I was missing anything there, 3 separate pairs all dropping like a stone at the same time? I would have liked 50 prot too , lol but could not react that fast. oh well
Music_Producer
Quote:
04-27-2007 01:15 PM
Originally Posted by astro1 (Post 3590479) Thanks for that, I just wasn't sure if I was missing anything there, 3 separate pairs all dropping like a stone at the same time? I would have liked 50 prot too , lol but could not react that fast. oh well
I just checked the news.. and there *was* news at 7.00. The Michigan consumer sentiment came in at 87.1.. well above the expected number.. that caused the drop. This was actually a signicant news report, but after trading the GDP I went to sleep. Ahh, this could have been a nice trade. Astro, go to www.forexfactory.com and look at the calendar on the front page. It tells you what news reports are coming out, and their 'signicance' (marked in red or orange) Shard, great trade.. but it could have gone against you, if the GDP had a surprise positive result. Combine that with the upward spike in consumer sentiment and you would have seen GBP at much lower levels. So be careful :)
~Shard~
Quote:
04-27-2007 02:40 PM
Originally Posted by OceanView (Post 3589956) That's great Shard. Wish I could make money in my sleep too. :D Is there a basic methodology that you could teach us on technical trading or is it so involved that I need a PhD? :)
I could get into certain tactics, but there are really too many out there and you have to take them with a grain of salt. No one indicator is good on it's own (at least I don't think so, contrary to many technical traders!) so when I get consistent signals from a few different sources, then I feel more condent in taking the trade. I try to couple it with fundamentals too. Remember a few posts ago how I talked about correlation between USD, Gold, commodities, etc. - that has a part to play in it as well. When I saw the May contract of Gold shooting up last night I knew the USD would experience weakness. And then, rightly or wrongly, I have seen that lots of times currency pairs will hit certain levels based on technical support and resistance levels - so whether
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they should or not, or there are fundamental reasons to the contrary, technical factors do come into play and are valid. After all, you don't think major institutions and hedge funds engage in technical trading? ;) So, specically with last night's trade, I had many factors pointing towards a rise in the GBPUSD, coupled with a strong support level just below my entry point, which made my risk/reward attractive as I didn't stand to lose much if I was wrong. Stop losses are key. I picked the point of resistance, put a TP in there and was right - again, rightly or wrongly, the currency stalled out there before moving upwards again. My trade was existed even before the news, but if it has been open for the news and the news was bad, my stop would have ben hit, so no harm no foul. As for specic tactics, yeah, I could get into them at some point, but it's rather hard without using a ton of screenshots, drawing on charts as I describe things, etc. in some cases. ;)
Quote:
Originally Posted by Music_Producer (Post 3590492) Shard, great trade.. but it could have gone against you, if the GDP had a surprise positive result. Combine that with the upward spike in consumer sentiment and you would have seen GBP at much lower levels. So be careful :)
Yep, duly noted. :) I have lost a lot on trades on the stock markets over the years to know that one very well. ;) Again, I felt my risk/reward was fairly attractive on this trade and I had a relatively tight stop. Plus, I did have a gut feeling towards the GDP #s and although you can't put a lot of stock into that (pardon the pun!) sometimes you do have to go with your intuition - that's another thing I have learned over the years. The ip-side of that, of course is that you can't get emotional and get caught up in the psychology of trading - you need discipline and a balance. :cool: Thanks for the PM by the way, I will respond later today. :)
astro1
Quote:
04-27-2007 03:57 PM
Originally Posted by Music_Producer (Post 3590492) I just checked the news.. and there *was* news at 7.00. The Michigan consumer sentiment came in at 87.1.. well above the expected number.. that caused the drop. This was actually a signicant news report, but after trading the GDP I went to sleep. Ahh, this could have been a nice trade. Astro, go to www.forexfactory.com and look at the calendar on the front page. It tells you what news reports are coming out, and their 'signicance' (marked in red or orange) Shard, great trade.. but it could have gone against you, if the GDP had a surprise positive result. Combine that with the upward spike in consumer sentiment and you would have seen GBP at much lower levels. So be careful :)
I saw that, but it came out 1 hour before the drop 10:00am USD Consumer Sentiment (r ) EST so I did not think that was a factor. Richard
Music_Producer
04-27-2007 11:49 PM
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Originally Posted by astro1 (Post 3590912) I saw that, but it came out 1 hour before the drop 10:00am USD Consumer Sentiment (r ) EST so I did not think that was a factor. Richard
Trust me, sometimes movements based on news reports can be a little delayed. I've seen that happen quite frequently on UK reports.. where the pound will move maybe 20-30 pips on a good/bad report.. and then settle down for some time.. and then take off for another 60-80 pips. Again, my previous explanation of prot taking obviously counts. The dollar's been at its lowest levels against the euro, pound, etc.. banks don't just hold on to their positions.. they buy, sell, buy, sell.. If AUD/JPY goes to 100, the folks who have bought it at 88 are going to start taking their prots, and you're going to see a dip to 99, maybe 98. And then it will start going back up slowly. The point here is, if you're going to wait and try and predict when these moves can happen, good luck! Unless you have some connections at a trading bank, or know a professional trader, etc.. there is no way to gure out when massive long/shorts can be triggered. If you read the news properly, you'll see reports such as "Citibank shorts 14 billion US$" etc.. obviously 14 billion is going to cause a spike in the market. So, out of the various spikes you see in the market.. some are based on prot taking.. some are due to banks buying or selling, to prevent their stops from being hit, and obviously the rest- are due to news reports. Out of all of these, I stick with the news reports. Why? Because I know when they will come out, and I can trade according to the report. The rest of the time, I might as well let my cat trade.. she'll probably have a better sense of when a drop or spike is going to happen than I will!
nhallmark
Did you guys trade ISM? I got in late on EUR/USD and it started bouncing around so I closed it at break even.
05-01-2007 07:11 AM
Anyway, I got my account open with ADM so I'll let you guys know how that goes over the coming weeks.
OceanView
05-01-2007 07:14 AM
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Originally Posted by nhallmark (Post 3600798) Did you guys trade ISM? I got in late on EUR/USD and it started bouncing around so I closed it at break even. Anyway, I got my account open with ADM so I'll let you guys know how that goes over the coming weeks.
I got in late too. Good luck with the new account at ADM. Hope it will be good for news trading. Keep us informed.
~Shard~
05-01-2007 09:48 AM
No trades for me this morning - have been too busy focusing on the stocks and commodities markets as of late, making some money and making some plans for future gains. ;) :cool: Things appear to be relatively quiet these past couple of days in the forex world anyway... I'll be trading again tomorrow though if the opportunity presents itself.
nhallmark
05-02-2007 05:18 AM
I made 5 pips on ADP...its wierd how the same deviation on this report will sometimes give a good trade and other times it moves 6 pips and then retraces. Did you guys trade it?
OceanView
Not much deviation. How is the new platform so far Nathan?
05-02-2007 05:37 AM
Music_Producer
05-02-2007 05:40 AM
6 pips on this one.. ADP's turning out to be a report to avoid because it's a horrible predictor of NFP (which is this friday) So I'm guessing, there's not much to be grabbed from this report. There have been times when ADP has come out positive by a huge margin.. and then NFP comes out sorely negative. So I'm not surprised that this one hardly moved.
~Shard~
Yeah, I only nabbed 6 pips myself. Still, I'm not complaining! ;)
05-02-2007 06:13 AM
OceanView
Too much data coming out at once but still got 10 pips.
05-03-2007 05:41 AM
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How did everyone else do?
~Shard~
Missed this one. Ah well, there's always another trade to take... ;) :cool:
05-03-2007 05:45 AM
nhallmark
I made 7 pips on ISM Non-Manufacturing.
05-03-2007 07:14 AM
OceanView, I am still getting set up with the new platform so Im still using CMC right now. I plan on playing around with it today and Ill probably start next week with it.
OceanView
Quote:
05-03-2007 08:03 AM
Originally Posted by nhallmark (Post 3607163) I made 7 pips on ISM Non-Manufacturing. OceanView, I am still getting set up with the new platform so Im still using CMC right now. I plan on playing around with it today and Ill probably start next week with it.
OK, no problem. I really am hoping that we can nd a new platform that has a better interface than CMC. I really don't like it very much. I played the market a bit more today, I know Shard is gonna call this not trading the news trading but I had a gut feeling about the GBP/USD still going down. So after the news announcement, I entered a sell again and used a stop and limit to get an additional 15 pips. :D Maybe I just got lucky.
Music_Producer
05-04-2007 05:41 AM
Bah.. got a re-quote on non farm report.. but I jumped in once the pound dropped after the initial spike.. was able to grab 10 pips. On the Aussie trade, I got 8 pips, so 18 pips.. not bad for the day.. but this was a pretty boring week. Hopefully next week should be exciting with all the aussie reports :D
~Shard~
Yeah, Aussie reports are always great for big moves. :D
05-04-2007 05:48 AM
As for me, I felt like gambling today, and what better report to do it on than the NFP! ;) :D I saw that the news was US negative and saw the initial spike down (which confused/concerned me) but decided to pop in at that point, hoping the fundamentals of the report (i.e. US weakness) would take over - which they did! I traded EURUSD this morning (just didn't fell like trading GBPUSD for some reason, perhaps it's too volatile in this situation!)) and got in at 1.3556. Rode the spike up to 1.3581 and got out for a great 25 pip gain! My heart almost stopped as well, as my SELL didn't seem to take right away and I thought, "Oh great, here
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comes a re-quote!" - luckily this wasn't the case! So, I'm going to wait for things to settle down now, but with the US news being negative and some technicals I'm looking at pointing to longs on the EURUSD and GBPUSD, I might enter a small lot ($25k) on a technical trade on one of the pairs, just to see how it goes. But I'm still going to give it a little while to calm down... ;) Oh, and I sent you a PM Music_Producer - check it out when you have the time. :) Hope everyone else had success this morning as well! :cool:
Music_Producer
05-04-2007 05:52 AM
I'll check it today Shard.. been busy lately with some stuff at home (projector setup) and has been driving me nuts.. trying to nd 50 ft component cables, etc! You know, I wanted to buy gbp/usd before the non farm payroll report came out.. because last month the report was pretty high.. so logically, this time it should have been lower than forecast - and that did happen. Of course, I didn't want to risk my account based on my predictions .. but lately I've been right about 95% of the time. Hmmm.. for all you know, with my luck.. the minute i start trading based on what i feel.. i'll probably go in a 100% loss :p 25 pips.. you lucky bastard :D Edit : - Also, the deviation wasn't great at all.. hence a more muted move.
~Shard~
Quote:
05-04-2007 06:17 AM
Originally Posted by Music_Producer (Post 3609992) I'll check it today Shard.. been busy lately with some stuff at home (projector setup) and has been driving me nuts.. trying to nd 50 ft component cables, etc!
Sounds like fun! Yeah, no rush, just wanted to give you a head's up. :)
Quote:
Originally Posted by Music_Producer (Post 3609992) You know, I wanted to buy gbp/usd before the non farm payroll report came out.. because last month the report was pretty high.. so logically, this time it should have been lower than forecast and that did happen. Of course, I didn't want to risk my account based on my predictions .. but lately I've been right about 95% of the time. Hmmm.. for all you know, with my luck.. the minute i start trading based on what i feel.. i'll probably go in a 100% loss :p
Yeah, I've had that dilemma as well - and hindsight doesn't help it sometimes. ;) I think though, as corny as it might sound, intuition and so forth does have a part to play in trading. You can't go with it blindly of course, but there's something to be said about it and it shouldn't ignored. After all, the markets aren't exactly an exact science and are quite chaotic, so why not throw some "impulsive trading" in every once and a while! :D ;)
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Originally Posted by Music_Producer (Post 3609992) 25 pips.. you lucky bastard :D
Why thank you. :cool:
OceanView
Quote:
05-04-2007 06:21 AM
Originally Posted by ~Shard~ (Post 3610037) Yeah, I've had that dilemma as well - and hindsight doesn't help it sometimes. ;) I think though, as corny as it might sound, intuition and so forth does have a part to play in trading. You can't go with it blindly of course, but there's something to be said about it and it shouldn't ignored. After all, the markets aren't exactly an exact science and are quite chaotic, so why not through some "impulsive trading" in every once and a while! :D ;)
Yes, I know this feeling. The odds are 50-50 that your right :) or wrong :mad: :D Too bad we dont have a crystal ball to see into the future.
nhallmark
05-04-2007 06:50 AM
I just watched it...I didn't think it deviated enough. I also stayed out of the AUD trade balance last night because the statement was coming out at the same time...I wish I could of caught that :p Anyway, Im sitting here typing this on my new MBP and I couldn't be happier! :D Good job on the trades, guys!
OceanView
Quote:
05-04-2007 09:36 AM
Originally Posted by nhallmark (Post 3610105) I just watched it...I didn't think it deviated enough. I also stayed out of the AUD trade balance last night because the statement was coming out at the same time...I wish I could of caught that :p Anyway, Im sitting here typing this on my new MBP and I couldn't be happier! :D Good job on the trades, guys!
Good man, which MBP did you get? I just bought a MBP P/N MA609LL/A a week or so ago myself.
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I installed Bootcamp v 1.2 and Vista on it and got the Speck clear cover for it. Love this thing! Did you buy it as a result of all the prots from playing in the forex? :D
paulbaker
Windows - Meta Trader 4 (MT4)
05-04-2007 04:40 PM
I currently use MT 4 on a Vista laptop. (FYI - I have 3 macs (g4's...) and a dell that my work provides me). I have used a lot of platforms that range from suck to great. I still have an Oanda account that I have not logged into in several months.... I have been using MT4 and have been hooked on it. I thought that the DealBook 360 by GFT was great, but it is actually overkill. The reason for this post, is that obviously I am a Mac fan , but I don't like Oanda. (It seems that it will not save the trendlines that i like to draw, etc between logins) What are Mac users trading FX with (to nally get to the point)
nhallmark
Quote:
05-04-2007 10:09 PM
Originally Posted by OceanView (Post 3610503) Good man, which MBP did you get? I just bought a MBP P/N MA609LL/A a week or so ago myself. I installed Bootcamp v 1.2 and Vista on it and got the Speck clear cover for it. Love this thing! Did you buy it as a result of all the prots from playing in the forex? :D
Uh...I got the gray one :p Seriously, you lost me with the "P/N MA609LL/A". What does all that mean? I got an "open box" core duo 15" with 2gb ram from powermax and I opted for parallels and xp. And I got the RadTech microber sleeve for a cover. Are you having any problems with vista?
Quote:
Originally Posted by paulbaker (Post 3611523) I currently use MT 4 on a Vista laptop. (FYI - I have 3 macs (g4's...) and a dell that my work provides me). I have used a lot of platforms that range from suck to great. I still have an Oanda account that I have not logged into in several months....
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1/15/08 8:35 PM
I have been using MT4 and have been hooked on it. I thought that the DealBook 360 by GFT was great, but it is actually overkill. The reason for this post, is that obviously I am a Mac fan , but I don't like Oanda. (It seems that it will not save the trendlines that i like to draw, etc between logins) What are Mac users trading FX with (to nally get to the point)
You can save your stuff on oanda...just add your indicators, trend lines, etc. and click tools>save current layout. I use MT4 a lot. It's the easiest to work with for technicals IMHO. Most of us here are using CMC which is windows only, but you knew that, right? :p
~Shard~
1 Attachment(s)
05-04-2007 10:20 PM
Yeah, CMC is by no means the best, but it works fairly well and seems to be the lesser of evils at times - the trade off is re-quotes for xed spreads... :rolleyes: ;) Anyway, my wife is a Director of Strategic Business Development, focusing on corporate nance, governance, authoring business plans, etc. She receives private reports from RBC on a daily basis through their (expensive!) paid subscription service and passes along the reports of interest to me. Usually they deal with stocks and commodities, but today there was a currency report. Nothing too surprising, but I thought I would share it regardless for what it's worth. Good reading and some insight to take into consideration... :cool:
OceanView
Quote:
05-07-2007 10:35 AM
Originally Posted by nhallmark (Post 3612117) Uh...I got the gray one :p Seriously, you lost me with the "P/N MA609LL/A". What does all that mean? I got an "open box" core duo 15" with 2gb ram from powermax and I opted for parallels and xp. And I got the RadTech microber sleeve for a cover. Are you having any problems with vista?
Nathan, That was a part number of the model that I bought. Basically it's the cheapest MBP currently available from Apple with the 15.4" screen. * 2.16GHz Intel Core 2 Duo * 1440 x 900 pixels * 1GB memory * 120GB hard drive1 * 6x double-layer SuperDrive
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1/15/08 8:35 PM
* ATI Mobility Radeon X1600 graphics with 128MB SDRAM No problems with Vista at the moment. If you need windows based software, running XP or Vista is a good option on the Mac.
paulbaker
Oanda
05-07-2007 04:36 PM
I guess that I can't get the hang of Oanda. Does Oanda have leverage of 1:100? I guess I don't understand what is so great about them. I got a demo account today for "Forex Club" (.com). It seems that they tried to make MT 4, but missed the mark. What else are folks using besides CMC? And I would like to know who is all Mac?
nhallmark
I made 16 pips on AUD retail sales :D Did you guys trade it?
05-07-2007 07:03 PM
OceanView, I was going to get that same one but I saw the deal on powermax with 2gb of ram for $200 less...the tradeoff was getting a core duo instead of a core 2 duo though. paulbaker, unless youre on oanda its practically impossible to be "all mac" with forex. Im running xp on my macbook pro and thats about as close as you can get at the moment. Oanda's leverage is 50:1 max, I think. And all the hype about oanda at the beginning of this thread was before they started widening their spreads to 20 pips during news. So, youre right....there is nothing great about them :p
Music_Producer
Quote:
05-07-2007 08:08 PM
Originally Posted by nhallmark (Post 3619785) I made 16 pips on AUD retail sales :D Did you guys trade it?
I'm currently at 30 pips :D I decided to hold on.. I'll close my position in a few minutes now though as the price seems to be stabilizing. Aussie $ tends to go on after a report in whatever direction that it started.. and the retail sales were amazing.

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nhallmark
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05-07-2007 08:28 PM
Originally Posted by Music_Producer (Post 3620021) I'm currently at 30 pips :D I decided to hold on.. I'll close my position in a few minutes now though as the price seems to be stabilizing. Aussie $ tends to go on after a report in whatever direction that it started.. and the retail sales were amazing.
Good job, man! I've been thinking about doing that also because the AUD reports do tend to go further after the initial spike. Anyway, let us know when you close and how much you got ;)
Music_Producer
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05-07-2007 08:49 PM
Originally Posted by nhallmark (Post 3620089) Good job, man! I've been thinking about doing that also because the AUD reports do tend to go further after the initial spike. Anyway, let us know when you close and how much you got ;)
Closed it for 33 pips, price seems stuck at 0.8300 level.. those darn building approval reports came out pretty negative.. if that wasn't the case.. aussie $ would have easily reached 0.8350. On wednesday we have some good nz and aussie reports.. US interest rate, i don't think anything's happening there.
paulbaker
More on Oanda...
05-08-2007 09:02 PM
I have been playing with the platform ton give it some due diligence..and I have to say that I am coming around on it to the point of almost liking it. What good are they though if they widen their spread so much during a morning run (CST) (-6 GMT). Most of the time, I would tend to think that these initial runs are 20 to 30 pip bursts before they take a breath.... Are you saying that Oanda won't even let you in on a run if you are there to catch it? Also, I am a purely technical trader, and have always felt that price already reects current
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knowlede...maybe this is not so true in FX...don't know...but I know as I read this forum that a whole lot of you are into news reports...Are you all basically going off of a published economic calendar and then watching...or is there more to it than meets the eye. ALso, also, I have gone overkill on technical studies, planets aligning, God smiling, etc., I nd the best and most reliable is rudimentary trendlines and well established support / resistance horizontal lines...no oscilators, no SMA's, no bo, no duck quacking... I am however always open to sound advice.
OceanView
Quote:
05-09-2007 10:44 AM
Originally Posted by Music_Producer (Post 3620021) I'm currently at 30 pips :D I decided to hold on.. I'll close my position in a few minutes now though as the price seems to be stabilizing. Aussie $ tends to go on after a report in whatever direction that it started.. and the retail sales were amazing.
I've noticed this on a few reports lately. Is it possible to go short or long (depending on the direction) with stops and limits to maximize on the news? I've done this a few times last week and made 25 plus pips by just letting it ride.
OceanView
05-09-2007 11:18 AM
Can anyone comment on why the GBP/USD went down even though the FED Interest rate was not changed? I thought it would go up. :confused:
Music_Producer
05-09-2007 06:37 PM
17 pips on aussie trade.. 2 million units :D My carry trade is looking good too..aussie numbers came out way positive.. i might just move there :p
nhallmark
uh...did you guys trade the AUD employment change?
05-09-2007 06:38 PM
That was crazy :eek: ...I saw it jump up like 20 pips in one tick before I got the news so I stayed out. Edit: Damn, you traded $2mil on CMC? good job!
Music_Producer
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05-09-2007 07:50 PM
Originally Posted by nhallmark (Post 3626376) uh...did you guys trade the AUD employment change? That was crazy :eek: ...I saw it jump up like 20 pips in one tick before I got the news so I stayed out.
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1/15/08 8:36 PM
Edit: Damn, you traded $2mil on CMC? good job!
Yeah, I saw a couple of spikes actually.. it would hover from 0.8288 to 0.8305 or so.. and back and forth.. sure had me on the edge of my seat! Well with this prot cmc will probably clamp down on all my future trades :rolleyes:
Music_Producer
Quote:
05-09-2007 07:52 PM
Originally Posted by OceanView (Post 3625112) Can anyone comment on why the GBP/USD went down even though the FED Interest rate was not changed? I thought it would go up. :confused:
Ocean, you n00b :D Almost everyone knows that US interest rates will remain untouched all of 2007.. in fact, some are even expecting a rate cut (due to the housing problems) So the fact that they left rates the same, coupled with the Fed statement that they are concerned about ination (and slow growth as well) boosted the $ a bit. This time no one was trading the rate decision, but the statement made accompanying that decision. I usually never trade US, EUR and Canadian interest rate decisions. UK interest rate decisions on the other hand are quite unpredictable.. so I look out for those.
OceanView
Quote:
05-10-2007 09:50 AM
Originally Posted by Music_Producer (Post 3626580) Ocean, you n00b :D Almost everyone knows that US interest rates will remain untouched all of 2007.. in fact, some are even expecting a rate cut (due to the housing problems) So the fact that they left rates the same, coupled with the Fed statement that they are concerned about ination (and slow growth as well) boosted the $ a bit. This time no one was trading the rate decision, but the statement made accompanying that decision. I usually never trade US, EUR and Canadian interest rate decisions. UK interest rate decisions on the other hand are quite unpredictable.. so I look out for those.
Yes I am still a Noob :D But that's why I am here trying to gure this out. Hoping to make some money so that I can quit my day job. ;) I am having problems with my internet at home so I could not trade AUD last night and GBP this morning. Apparently someone else has the same MAC number as I have on my cable modem. How odd. :mad: I should be ready to go for tomorrows CAD Employment change announcement.
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nhallmark
I made 21 pips on CAD employment change. :D I assume you guys traded it?
05-11-2007 04:03 AM
Music_Producer
Quote:
05-11-2007 04:25 AM
Originally Posted by nhallmark (Post 3630358) I made 21 pips on CAD employment change. :D I assume you guys traded it?
Yup, 19 here :) I won't be trading the US reports.. two important reports coming out at the same time.. and if they conict.. can cause all kinds of problems. Of course, they could both come out good/bad but I gure by the time I process both reports, and enter the trade.. it might already be too late.. just don't want to take a risk. Next trade - Sunday
OceanView
10 pips on the KIWI, yay! :)
05-13-2007 03:58 PM
nhallmark
Hell yeah :D I got 23 pips on NZD retail sales and I was trading 1 mil so Im really happy :D The movement seemed really slow for some reason. Did you guys trade? Edit: Good job, OceanView!
05-13-2007 03:58 PM
OceanView
Quote:
05-13-2007 04:34 PM
Originally Posted by nhallmark (Post 3636612) Hell yeah :D I got 23 pips on NZD retail sales and I was trading 1 mil so Im really happy :D The movement seemed really slow for some reason. Did you guys trade? Edit: Good job, OceanView!
Wow! :eek: Your getting brave Nathan. :D Good for you.
Music_Producer
05-13-2007 05:53 PM
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1/15/08 8:36 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by nhallmark (Post 3636612) Hell yeah :D I got 23 pips on NZD retail sales and I was trading 1 mil so Im really happy :D The movement seemed really slow for some reason. Did you guys trade? Edit: Good job, OceanView!
Nice job folks! Nathan, i beat you this time.. 30 pips :p Yeah, it did move slow.. I think everyone was asleep since it's a sunday hehe. I had to wait quite a bit, I was going to close the trade almost a few seconds after I jumped in.. but I realized it was a huge deviation.. and the move didn't justify it. Luckily, it did move up eventually. My carry trade is also looking up.. I bought a dip on aud/jpy when it hit 98.80.. right now it's at 100.10. Hey nathan, now you can buy the new led macbook pro that's coming this tuesday :D
OceanView
5 pips on the GBP/USD CPI. I got out too fast. :rolleyes:
05-15-2007 05:38 AM
Music_Producer
05-15-2007 05:38 AM
I've had a re-quote on every trade since monday.. on the other hand, I think I'm going to stay up for a couple of more hours to see if the new macbook pros come out.. hell anything, just come out already!! :D
Music_Producer
Quote:
05-15-2007 05:39 AM
Originally Posted by OceanView (Post 3641187) 5 pips on the GBP/USD CPI. I got out too fast. :rolleyes:
Hey, better than my bloody requote!!
OceanView
Quote:
05-15-2007 05:49 AM
Originally Posted by Music_Producer (Post 3641193) Hey, better than my bloody requote!!
Sorry to hear that. :( What ever happened to getting a Currenex account?
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nhallmark
05-15-2007 06:09 AM
I haven't traded since sunday either. UK PPI was the only good trade, I think, but I slept in on that one :p Is NZD PPI worth trading today? I've never traded that one before. Like OceanView said, what happened with currenex? I haven't traded with ADM yet because last week on the UK interest rate announcement the spread was crazy. It was at 56/93 at one point. I've watched it a few times since and the spread rarely exceeds 7 pips but still... Im still deciding what to do, I guess. Im thinking it might just be an on and off thing with CMC and I just need to accept that I cant get every trade. Looks like, as Im typing, Apple just updated the macbooks but thats it.
Music_Producer
05-15-2007 06:00 PM
Got a re-quote on nzd report.. as far as currenex is concerned, I am still on the lookout for a professional, reliable broker. ODL is obviously out, Aaron FX looks a bit amateurish.. or outdated.. I'm looking at other brokers (Man Financial, etc) After all, if I have to deposit $50 k with a broker.. I might as well do my homework rst. Yeah natha, with cmc.. i think if you make a nice prot.. they start blocking your trades for some time. You could make a decent prot by just trading aussie reports every month.. with a huge lot obviously. I gure if you make just 3-4 trades a month.. they would let you do that (and in turn you should be able to make good prots) Aussie reports move the most.. the US reports really don't move around that much.. if they do.. there are always whipsaws, etc.
~Shard~
05-15-2007 06:54 PM
Hi guys - I've been away from trading for the past couple of weeks, just wanted to "pip" in and say hi. ;) :D Hoping to get back into trading starting tomorrow AM - hope everything is going well for everyone... :cool:
~Shard~
Just traded the Japanese data and made 10 pips on EURJPY. Not too shabby...
05-16-2007 05:12 PM
Music_Producer
Quote:
05-16-2007 05:30 PM
Originally Posted by ~Shard~ (Post 3647777) Just traded the Japanese data and made 10 pips on EURJPY. Not too shabby...
Welcome back Shard! :) I myself just gathered about 8 pips on the jap gdp report. Canadian reports coming up tomorrow and friday should yield some good trades.
~Shard~
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05-16-2007 05:43 PM
1/15/08 8:36 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Music_Producer (Post 3647831) Welcome back Shard! :) I myself just gathered about 8 pips on the jap gdp report. Canadian reports coming up tomorrow and friday should yield some good trades.
Thanks! Had a chance to check out that PM I sent yet? If not, no worries... ;) :) Yeah, should be some good trading opportunities tomorrow for USD and CAD. Good luck to all!
nhallmark
05-16-2007 06:52 PM
I only got 4 pips on USD/JPY. It went up 10-12 but I held too long. Im hoping CAD CPI will give us a good trade tomorrow. It doesn't take much deviation to get a good move on that report.
~Shard~
Quote:
05-16-2007 06:55 PM
Originally Posted by nhallmark (Post 3648062) I only got 4 pips on USD/JPY. It went up 10-12 but I held too long. Im hoping CAD CPI will give us a good trade tomorrow. It doesn't take much deviation to get a good move on that report.
Yep, I'll be watching that one closely myself...
nhallmark
20 pips on CAD CPI :D Quick and easy, no BS from CMC ;)
05-17-2007 04:05 AM
~Shard~
05-17-2007 05:40 AM
Was a little slow this morning and only made 7 pips on the CAD data. Tried to trade the data here a few minutes ago and got a damn requote from CMC. :mad: I guess I was too fast for their system to handle... :rolleyes: Ah well, there's always another trade to be made...
Music_Producer
05-18-2007 01:34 AM
38 pips on UK Retail Sales report :D I tried this out on MB trading since CMC was giving me the unlimited re-quote package.. executed great.. and noticed 1 pip spread - sometimes 2 and even zero. Next up, Canadian CPI
nhallmark
05-18-2007 05:04 AM
damn it, man. I slept in for UK retail sales. Ive really got to stop doing this. I sleep in every friday :p
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1/15/08 8:36 PM
good job, though ;)
~Shard~
Quote:
05-18-2007 05:09 AM
Originally Posted by Music_Producer (Post 3652234) 38 pips on UK Retail Sales report :D I tried this out on MB trading since CMC was giving me the unlimited re-quote package.. executed great.. and noticed 1 pip spread - sometimes 2 and even zero. Next up, Canadian CPI
Wow, that's excellent Music_Producer! Wish I would have gotten up for that one! ;) I guess I'm out of the loop, being away for a while - who is MB? Perhaps I'll look into them too as recently I have been receiving a free trial of CMC's re-quote package as well it seems... ;) Up next, Canadian data. Hmm, if it's really positive can the Loonie keep hitting new highs? How low can the USDCAD pair go??? Not that I care, being Canadian and all... ;) :D That being said, a strong currency isn't always a good thing, especially when you have an export-centric economy like ours... :o
~Shard~
05-18-2007 05:34 AM
Woo hoo, just made 12 pips on the Canadian report! :D If I would have held on I obviously could have made even more, but since I was news trading I had to stick to my strategy and get in, get out and leave it at that. The trend continued a bit but it could have just as easily reversed. So, I grabbed the short on the USDCAD from 1.0939 to 1.0927. How did everyone else do?
nhallmark
05-18-2007 05:38 AM
I was paying attention to the core # so I "ltered" out the headline # in my head...but then realized after seeing it, that I should have payed attention to it. So, no trade for me.
Music_Producer
05-18-2007 05:39 AM
Shard, MB trading is at www.mbtrading.com. They're an ECN, but I've seen massive slippage at times.. however lately they have improved on that aspect as a lot of customers were leaving. Check out EFX Group - www.efxgroup.com - that's MB trading's forex division. MB also lets you deal with stocks, etc. Nathan, you have the whole weekend to sleep.. so wake up for a few minutes.. ;) Edit : Just made 8 pips on USD/CAD.. I reacted a bit slowly because the core was unchanged.
~Shard~
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05-18-2007 05:43 AM
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Originally Posted by Music_Producer (Post 3652505) Shard, MB trading is at www.mbtrading.com. They're an ECN, but I've seen massive slippage at times.. however lately they have improved on that aspect as a lot of customers were leaving. Check out EFX Group - www.efxgroup.com - that's MB trading's forex division. MB also lets you deal with stocks, etc. Nathan, you have the whole weekend to sleep.. so wake up for a few minutes.. ;) Edit : Just made 8 pips on USD/CAD.. I reacted a bit slowly because the core was unchanged.
Thanks for the info! Yeah, I didn't get in at the top of the trade either, but still made a decent number of pips a good start to the weekend. Hope everyone has a good one and we'll see you next week! Should be some good trades from the looks of it... :cool:
nhallmark
Did you guys trade the BOE Minutes?
05-23-2007 01:49 AM
Im still holding on it becuase the move wasnt justied in my opinion but Ill let you guys know when I close. Edit: I closed it for 43 pips. Im moving to LA on friday and that just about payed for it :D
Music_Producer
Quote:
05-23-2007 03:13 AM
Originally Posted by nhallmark (Post 3666793) Did you guys trade the BOE Minutes? Im still holding on it becuase the move wasnt justied in my opinion but Ill let you guys know when I close. Edit: I closed it for 43 pips. Im moving to LA on friday and that just about payed for it :D
Good one nathan! I just got out with 28 pips because I didn't want to hold on any longer.. but apparently it's still going up. Move was muted because the US $ has been pretty strong lately.. with expectations of rate cuts fading away.
Music_Producer
05-23-2007 04:41 AM
Damn! GBP/USD moved up 60 pips more :eek: Hey nathan, if you'd stayed in.. you could have probably made enough to move to London :p

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OceanView
Oh My Goodness, you guys have been busy making pips! Good for you all. Nathan, where are you moving from and why to LA? This place is too crowded and I am trying to get out myself.
05-23-2007 08:58 PM
nhallmark
Quote:
05-24-2007 08:27 AM
Originally Posted by OceanView (Post 3669653) Nathan, where are you moving from and why to LA? This place is too crowded and I am trying to get out myself.
Im moving from Dallas, TX. Im moving to LA just because I like it, I guess :p What's so bad about LA? We're moving to Agoura Hills so we wont be in the middle of all the LA craziness :p Did you guys trade this morning? I got 7 pips on US Durable Goods and 22 pips on US New Home Sales :D
OceanView
Quote:
05-24-2007 10:20 AM
Originally Posted by nhallmark (Post 3670792) Im moving from Dallas, TX. Im moving to LA just because I like it, I guess :p What's so bad about LA? We're moving to Agoura Hills so we wont be in the middle of all the LA craziness :p Did you guys trade this morning? I got 7 pips on US Durable Goods and 22 pips on US New Home Sales :D
You will nd out when you get here. :rolleyes: In all fairness, it has its pros and cons. Love the weather, the lifestyle and the diversity. The trafc will take some time to get use to. It takes me about 1 hour each way from home to work and vice
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versa. I know some people that drive even longer. Also, cost of living is really high but then you probably already knew that. Good luck on the move and welcome to the jungle.
~Shard~
05-24-2007 12:24 PM
13 pips on US home data and 32 pips on a USDCHF short thanks to that news - the pair shot up, broke several technical ags I has set as a result (resistance, RSI, short-term MACD, etc.) and as a result I shorted it quite successfully after the news effect settled down. Also shorted the EURUSD earlier this week for 46 pips based on technicals. Just a smaller lot though ($75K) as I am still not as condent in technical trading as I am with news trading. :o ;) I see a potential short term run-up in the pair now from a technical perspective, especially with no Euro news for a while to skew with things, so I might take a long position tonight with $50K or so... So far this week a good combination of news and technical trading for me - can't complain at all. :cool:
nhallmark
I made it to LA :D
05-27-2007 06:33 PM
Now, my problem is that my internet wont be set up until june 5th(Im "borrowing" one of my neighbor's wi right now). OceanView or Music_Producer, is there anywhere in LA thats open 24hrs that has internet? Im thinking I might have to pay for a motel for 2 weeks just to get the wi. Good job on the technicals, Shard!
StuNew78
Humble question.
05-28-2007 10:27 AM
Hello gentlemen. I've been a y on the wall for about 6 months now. I have learnt very much and read everypost. I am now myself a successful news-trader.... and probably owe alot to the explanations rst posted by music_producer. Can I ask you all where you recieve your news feed from? I gure it must be very fast. Is TTN all you use? Maybe Bloomberg or Reuters? That seems to be one detail I'm still not sure about. Thanks.
~Shard~
05-28-2007 11:22 AM
I hope things work out for you nathan - keep us posted! As for life without Internet access, I can't imagine it! :eek: ;) :D Hi StuNew78, glad to have you on board and reading the thread. TTN is indeed what we use - I, at least, am not at the level yet where I can justify the $1800/month charge for the Bloomberg terminal. ;) Please continue to share with us your experiences (if you like) and if you have any questions just ask! :cool:
StuNew78
05-28-2007 07:29 PM
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1/15/08 8:36 PM
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Originally Posted by ~Shard~ (Post 3681692) I hope things work out for you nathan - keep us posted! As for life without Internet access, I can't imagine it! :eek: ;) :D Hi StuNew78, glad to have you on board and reading the thread. TTN is indeed what we use - I, at least, am not at the level yet where I can justify the $1800/month charge for the Bloomberg terminal. ;) Please continue to share with us your experiences (if you like) and if you have any questions just ask! :cool:
Thanks Shard. I myself am just about to trial out a news feed service from www.forexdiamonds.com as I live in Singapore I'm not sure how fast the delay from the server in New York will affect my trading executions. But what I'll do is chime back in here after a few weeks of trading reports and share my prots/losses. TTN gives you the raw gures which is probably more for those who are condent to process the info quickly (not me yet!), this service I'm going to try gives you conservative BUY/SELL triggers instantly... well that's the idea.... we'll see. thanks for the welcome.
~Shard~
Quote:
05-28-2007 08:14 PM
Originally Posted by StuNew78 (Post 3682950) Thanks Shard. I myself am just about to trial out a news feed service from www.forexdiamonds.com as I live in Singapore I'm not sure how fast the delay from the server in New York will affect my trading executions. But what I'll do is chime back in here after a few weeks of trading reports and share my prots/losses. TTN gives you the raw gures which is probably more for those who are condent to process the info quickly (not me yet!), this service I'm going to try gives you conservative BUY/SELL triggers instantly... well that's the idea.... we'll see. thanks for the welcome.
Absolutely, it's always nice to have new people join the thread and discussions. The more people we have, with more insight, knowledge, experience and thoughts, the better traders we become as a whole. That news service sounds interesting, what with the BUY/SELL method of indications, however I wonder how it would respond during multiple cross reports. For instance, if there is bad Canadian data, it would no doubt give a BUY signal on the USDCAD pair. However what happens if at the same time, there is horrible US data? You would get the proper BUY signal on the GBPUSD no doubt, however if you were specically planning on trading the USDCAD pair, you might get screwed. Just some thoughts - please keep us posted and happy trading! :cool:
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Music_Producer
05-29-2007 01:16 AM
What's going on guys? :) I'm back from a little break that I took.. time to get back into the markets and in the gym! Nathan.. welcome to LA! I just realized that you moved on Friday, Memorial day weekend.. hope you didn't encounter any nasty trafc. 24 hours internet.. when I was in Hollywood I know there were a few cafes open 24/7.. check to see if you have any near where you're staying. I think some branches of Fedex/Kinko's are open 24 hrs.. and they have internet access. Good luck, and if you want me to research online.. let me know.. PM me and I'll get back to you. Shard, you've been busy with your techs as usual :) Btw, I'm just listening to the 2nd track you sent me.. the rst one was awesome.. super clean considering it's not mastered.. my rst track had 'hiss' all over it.. just tried to make it sound analog.. is the best excuse I have :p Let's see.. today the Aussie sales are something to look out for.. US consumer condence too.. but i think i'll be sleeping tonight.. real tired. See you all later!
~Shard~
05-29-2007 06:08 AM
Just made 22 pips on the Canadian rate announcement - awesome trade! Obviously could have made more, but I was quite happy with my result. :) Glad to see you back Music_Producer! Yeah, I need to get back to the gym as well, I've just been too busy lately. As for the music, glad you liked the rst tune I sent - let me know what you think about the second and I'll send a couple more your way in the next few days. We can chat more via PM if you like. :) I'll be watching the AUD trade tonight for sure - good luck everyone! :cool:
nhallmark
Hey guys!
05-29-2007 02:05 PM
I called time warner to see if they could get out here sooner. To make a long story short, I've got my internet set up now :D Music_Producer, the trafc was actually better then the last time I came out here. I've been here since sunday afternoon and I have yet to encounter any bad trafc(aside from driving down PCH which is always a mess). StuNew78, Ive actually been using felix's service for a few weeks now but didnt want to post anything about it until I was sure that it worked. I would sign up for Secret News Weapon though instead of his room because it clicks the button for you :D If you guys try it out though, sign up under me so I'll get the commission :D Just go to www.secretforexsociety.com and click join, then enter my email which is nhallmark AT gmail DOT com. That website is free and he has a really good video on NFP and how it works. Its like 3-4 hours long though. Anyway, Im liking it so far but sometimes, especially on NZD reports, TTN will get the # faster than SNW so Im paying for both right now. Shard, on CAD reports, the guy tells everyone(in his emails the night before the trade) to trade EUR/CAD if
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there is US data at the same time. Supposedly, they are supposed to be releasing a new version in a few weeks that will handle conicting reports, revisions, etc. but he has been saying that for a few weeks :rolleyes: Anyway, Im liking LA a lot. Luckily, when I leased my apartment online, I got a good area(agoura hills). Its quiet and safe...one of the only places in LA that doesnt have grafti on all the street signs :p
~Shard~
05-29-2007 03:53 PM
Thanks for the update and the info nathan, much appreciated! I'll take a look at that news service and see if it loks like something I want to try out. Do they have a free trial? What does their monthly subscription cost?
nhallmark
Shard, its $250 a month or $150 a month if you pay for his room also :rolleyes:
05-29-2007 04:05 PM
He gives you 3 weeks to get a refund which I haven't asked for but there is a thread on FF somewhere where someone asked for a refund and they did receive it plus the $10 or $15 per his refund policy.
Music_Producer
05-29-2007 04:15 PM
Not SNW!!! :eek: How is that working for you? I tried it a long time ago and it was great in theory, but horric in practice. I had 3 messed up trades after which I just cancelled the damn thing. One was when a deviation was positive.. but the thing automatically triggered 'sell' instead of buy.. leaving me scratching my head. Another instance was when it showed a wrong deviation. The last was when it came out much later than the news did.. so the markets had already moved by then. If you're using it.. don't bet your whole account on it.. use it cautiously. After those 3 errors, I wouldn't use it again. I don't know if they've improved the system now.. but I've also heard that they basically use Bloomberg and Reuters service.. and forward it to all their subscribers. Rumor was that bloomberg is trying to shut them down.. and in some instances.. they're probably doing things like sending DOS attacks, etc. That might just leave you with a trade not executed, or worse - a trade executed in the opposite direction. I also realized that I was actually a bit faster than that weapon :D So I prefer to trade with the news.. and not use some third party thing where there is no guarantee of what will happen. Bottomline, I had a bad experience.. :( Nathan, you got internet already? WTF?! Next time I move somewhere.. I'm gonna call you and ask you to hook me up with internet.. you're fast :p
nhallmark
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05-29-2007 05:12 PM
Originally Posted by Music_Producer (Post 3685431) Not SNW!!! :eek: How is that working for you? I tried it a long time ago and it was great in theory, but horric in practice. I had 3 messed up trades after which I just cancelled the damn thing.
Wow, its been working great for me. There was one trade on CAD GDP a few weeks ago where it just gave
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a 0 deviation and felix said afterward that he set it up wrong, which scares me but I haven't had any problems so far. Ive actually trippled my account again this month using it. Maybe you got in when it was still in beta? Either way, thanks for sharing your experience. I'll denitely be more cautious with it.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Music_Producer (Post 3685431) Nathan, you got internet already? WTF?! Next time I move somewhere.. I'm gonna call you and ask you to hook me up with internet.. you're fast :p
Yeah, they told me june 5th and then moved it to the 7th online, but I called them just to see if they could get out here faster and they said "yeah, we have 2 appointments open tomorrow" so I took the earliest one...the guy came out this morning and I had some trouble with my airport but now Im up and running :D I just noticed yesterday though, that they have a building directly across the street from my apartment(yet somehow they couldnt just walk across the street and hook me up :rolleyes: )
Music_Producer
05-29-2007 05:26 PM
Yeah I used it quite some time back.. so it was probably really buggy then. If it works great then don't be cautious using it.. I was just citing my own experience with it. It's probably all improved now.. maybe I'll give it a shot but my current trading technique.. I'm just so used to it.. let's see. Maybe I'll get it for my wife :p
~Shard~
Aussie news is looming - I'm ready to trade if the opportunity presents itself... :cool:
05-29-2007 06:06 PM
~Shard~
05-29-2007 06:37 PM
... And that it did! 12 pips on the Aussie news - shorted from 8192 to 8180, perfect trade - in, out, pips in the bag. :)
Music_Producer
Riiiii quo laaaa (re-quote) sorry.. couldn't resist.
05-29-2007 06:40 PM
nhallmark
lol..MP I got 11 pips on it.
05-29-2007 06:44 PM
~Shard~
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05-29-2007 06:44 PM
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Originally Posted by Music_Producer (Post 3685814) Riiiii quo laaaa (re-quote) sorry.. couldn't resist.
Damn, that sucks. Ah well, it wasn't a large move - I see the AUDUSD pair (the one I traded) is pretty much back to where we started... ;) Hmm, what the hell is going on with the Chinese markets?! All indices opened -5% or lower and market is buying?! :confused: Huge swings right now on carry trades, at least USDJPY and EURJPY. I think I'll just watch this from the sidelines until a clear direction is formed... possible opportunities though, that's for sure...
~Shard~
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05-29-2007 06:45 PM
Originally Posted by nhallmark (Post 3685822) lol..MP I got 11 pips on it.
Haha, kicked your ass. :p ;) :D
Music_Producer
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05-29-2007 06:46 PM
Originally Posted by nhallmark (Post 3685822) lol..MP I got 11 pips on it.
Pretty soon you'll be moving from agoura hills to beverly hills :D Shard.. I don't know what's up with these chinese markets. To me it seems like the run up before a huge bubble burst. I'm waiting for the carry trades to correct.. like in february when we saw drops of 800 pips or so.
Music_Producer
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05-29-2007 06:50 PM
Originally Posted by ~Shard~ (Post 3685831) Haha, kicked your ass. :p ;) :D
I would have kicked everyone's collective ass.. would have made 20 pips had my trade gone through :p :D
~Shard~
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05-29-2007 07:13 PM
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Originally Posted by Music_Producer (Post 3685833) Shard.. I don't know what's up with these chinese markets. To me it seems like the run up before a huge bubble burst. I'm waiting for the carry trades to correct.. like in february when we saw drops of 800 pips or so.
Yeah, that's my thinking too. I'm wondering if the carries are going to unwind again and the US markets are going to get hammered as well. I'll keep a close eye on things...
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Originally Posted by Music_Producer (Post 3685837) I would have kicked everyone's collective ass.. would have made 20 pips had my trade gone through :p :D
Yeah, but it didn't... :p ;) Just buggin' ya... :D
nhallmark
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05-29-2007 08:33 PM
Originally Posted by Music_Producer (Post 3685833) Pretty soon you'll be moving from agoura hills to beverly hills :D
Yeah, that's the goal, anyway. I went driving around sunset and rodeo last night :eek: Those houses are crazy....I cant wait to get one :D (after buying you your mac pro of course :rolleyes: ) Anyway, I've been wondering about the carries also. It seems like a lot is being said about the JPY pairs are at "non sustainable" levels, etc. but it doesnt seem to affect them much like it did in february. If we have another crash, though, I'll break my "no trading GBP/JPY" rule and short the hell out of it :D
Music_Producer
05-29-2007 08:43 PM
You should check out San Diego then. I really like that place.. it's always green and the weather's perfect. GBP/JPY is a monster.. when it does move, it will bounce down 1000 pips or more.
Music_Producer
No trades so far.. very boring.. reports hardly deviating.
05-31-2007 05:56 AM
~Shard~
05-31-2007 07:54 AM
Yep, nothing really to trade this morning. Lots of movement, but none of it appears to be as a direct result of the information - at least not at the specic time of its release.... But, I'm sure NFP will more than make up for it tomorrow..... :D
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I might just have to resort to technicals again to get me by... :p ;) NZDUSD and AUDUSD are looking like possible short candidiates, as is USDJPY based on a couple indicators of mine... I need more proof though, and right now I'm not sure if I feel comfortable taking any of those as the markets seem quite active today... I'll give it a few more hours...
StuNew78
06-01-2007 02:28 AM
I shorted NZD/USD yesterday.... and now at -80pips. Lucky it was a small order. :o I'm just about to give up on my own technical trading. I don't have the experience to be a speculative tech trader, but with news, I can be reactionary... and protable. :D Good luck on the NFP all.
StuNew78
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06-01-2007 02:31 AM
Originally Posted by nhallmark (Post 3685056) Hey guys! I called time warner to see if they could get out here sooner. To make a long story short, I've got my internet set up now :D Music_Producer, the trafc was actually better then the last time I came out here. I've been here since sunday afternoon and I have yet to encounter any bad trafc(aside from driving down PCH which is always a mess). StuNew78, Ive actually been using felix's service for a few weeks now but didnt want to post anything about it until I was sure that it worked. I would sign up for Secret News Weapon though instead of his room because it clicks the button for you :D If you guys try it out though, sign up under me so I'll get the commission :D Just go to www.secretforexsociety.com and click join, then enter my email which is nhallmark AT gmail DOT com. That website is free and he has a really good video on NFP and how it works. Its like 3-4 hours long though. Anyway, Im liking it so far but sometimes, especially on NZD reports, TTN will get the # faster than SNW so Im paying for both right now. Shard, on CAD reports, the guy tells everyone(in his emails the night before the trade) to trade EUR/CAD if there is US data at the same time. Supposedly, they are supposed to be releasing a new version in a few weeks that will handle conicting reports, revisions, etc. but he has been saying that for a few weeks :rolleyes: Anyway, Im liking LA a lot. Luckily, when I leased my apartment online, I got a good area(agoura hills). Its quiet and safe...one of the only places in LA that doesnt have grafti on all the street signs :p
nhallmark.... I'll sign up under you. May aswell.... :cool:
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Music_Producer
Quote:
06-01-2007 03:08 AM
Originally Posted by StuNew78 (Post 3694244) I shorted NZD/USD yesterday.... and now at -80pips. Lucky it was a small order. :o I'm just about to give up on my own technical trading. I don't have the experience to be a speculative tech trader, but with news, I can be reactionary... and protable. :D Good luck on the NFP all.
Stu.. Shard knows quite a bit about technicals.. and he's almost always successful. I am always disastrous at tech trading.. so I stick to news. Based on the inated AUD/JPY (at 100.70) I shorted a small lot.. and the sucker went to 101!! So when you're shorting AUD or NZD.. remember that these are currencies preferred for the carry trade. So whenever the carry trade is up.. all aud/jpy, gbp/jpy, nzd, etc go higher. The day these levels break or japan intervenes (i don't think it will) or some nance minister gives a warning etc.. these guys drop in the blink of an eye.
StuNew78
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06-01-2007 04:39 AM
Originally Posted by Music_Producer (Post 3694304) Stu.. Shard knows quite a bit about technicals.. and he's almost always successful. I am always disastrous at tech trading.. so I stick to news. Based on the inated AUD/JPY (at 100.70) I shorted a small lot.. and the sucker went to 101!! So when you're shorting AUD or NZD.. remember that these are currencies preferred for the carry trade. So whenever the carry trade is up.. all aud/jpy, gbp/jpy, nzd, etc go higher. The day these levels break or japan intervenes (i don't think it will) or some nance minister gives a warning etc.. these guys drop in the blink of an eye.
Hi Music_producer, It's hard call on the NZDUSD right now... I shorted on the idea that alot of reports are expecting a correction. IMF contacted our government and said 'cool down' on the interest rates (highest in nearly 10 years). But now some are expecting another rate hike to 8% (which I highly doubt)... http://www.nzherald.co.nz/topic/stor...ectid=10443024 I'm going to hang on the short with my small lot and wait for a correction. This brings me to a thought of trading psychology. TA and News are so very far apart to me in preparation, patience and execution. I believe I'm a news trader :) Can I ask who your current broker is music_producer? I'm on Oanda but just opened an MB trading demo under reccomendation.
Music_Producer
06-01-2007 05:35 AM
Stu, my current broker (and soon to be ex-broker) is CMC Markets. I just got a re-quote.. the rst time when gbp/usd dropped from 1.9806 to 1.9775.. and then I waited for it to go back up.. and shorted again.. again another re-quote.
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I've signed up with Capital Forex (Currenex) but have yet to wait for the account to open (nal stages - all paperwork is led) Can't wait to trade on a real account instead of this sh*t broker that I have. It's such a waste of time to stay up all the time just to get re-quotes. They might as well tell me 'Please stop trading' and I will happily comply. MB Trading has gotten quite good lately. They used to be horrible earlier.. but apparently now their lls are pretty instantaneous. But, with NFP.. I don't know what kind of slippage you might get.. NFP is the most traded report.
~Shard~
06-01-2007 09:48 AM
Got a requote on NFP, but that thing swung so much due to all the data that it was probably for the best... :o ;)
Quote:
Originally Posted by StuNew78 (Post 3694244) I shorted NZD/USD yesterday.... and now at -80pips. Lucky it was a small order. I'm just about to give up on my own technical trading. I don't have the experience to be a speculative tech trader, but with news, I can be reactionary... and protable.
:eek: Sorry to hear about the short Stu. Once my 4-hour chandle closed and I received conrmation on my 1-hour candle that key resistance had been broken, I decided not to take the trade - luckily it was a good non-trade. The pair is up over 100 pips in a couple days, so I would look for a bit of a retracement, but I doubt you'll end up protable unless you hold for an entire week and something signicant happens wrt the interest rate decision next week.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Music_Producer (Post 3694304) Stu.. Shard knows quite a bit about technicals.. and he's almost always successful. I am always disastrous at tech trading.. so I stick to news. Based on the inated AUD/JPY (at 100.70) I shorted a small lot.. and the sucker went to 101!! So when you're shorting AUD or NZD.. remember that these are currencies preferred for the carry trade. So whenever the carry trade is up.. all aud/jpy, gbp/jpy, nzd, etc go higher.
Thanks Music_Producer, you're going to make me blush. ;) :) Yeah, it's taken me years and years of trading on the stock markets to gain a decent handle on technicals, but I only use them sparingly, and with small lots. And you make a very good point wrt the carry trade pairs - they defy logic and fundamentals, so it's very risky to short them. But, as you say, all it takes is an event like the end of February and they will drop like a bride's pajamas on her wedding night. :cool:
Quote:
Originally Posted by StuNew78 (Post 3694444) It's hard call on the NZDUSD right now... I shorted on the idea that alot of reports are expecting a correction. IMF contacted our government and said 'cool down' on the interest rates (highest in nearly 10 years). But now some are expecting another rate hike to 8% (which I highly doubt)... http://www.nzherald.co.nz/topic/stor...ectid=10443024 I'm going to hang on the short with my small lot and wait for a correction.
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With any trading you really have to pick a strategy and stick to it. A lot can hapen but you always need to keep clear in your mind the reason why you entered a trade and what your're desired outcome is. If the markets are telling you a different story, you have to listen and be willing to abort. I used to do the wrong thing with stocks when I rst started. I'd short a stock based on technicals, it would reverse on me, then I'd pick a new exit point, or I'd think about doubling down, and I'd get all caught up in the fact that I was losing money. In the end, I had lost sight of the circumstances under which I initially took the trade - if I would have kept those in mind, I would have saved myself a lot of money by cutting my losses. In your case, if you are truly shorting NZDUSD basded on what you hope the news will be next week, then that's ne - just don't panic in the meantime if the pair is volatile, and wait for the announcement next week. And more importantly, if the news is bad for you (i.e. a rate hike to 8%), don't chase your losses, don't try and force a winning trade and get the f*ck out of Dodge. Whereas if you were shorting the pair "just cuz" and now it onbviously was a bad decision, I'd get out. You were wrong. We've all been wrong. Live with it and move onto the next trade. :cool:
Quote:
Originally Posted by StuNew78 (Post 3694444) This brings me to a thought of trading psychology. TA and News are so very far apart to me in preparation, patience and execution. I believe I'm a news trader :)
Yes they are. That being said, they are inexplicably linked at times. Negative news will hammer a pair down, but "coincidentally" the pair will many times bottom out at a key support level, whether it's a double bottom, the 365MA, whatever. Odd... ;) The fact is, there are many technical traders out there who trade based on these types of signals. So, rightly or wrongly, or even if it goes against fundamentals, you have to keep this in mind as there are many traders out there who can sometimes inuence the markets as such. For instance, thousands of short or buy orders are placed by the big institutions at key levels, thus making them very hard to break. Look how many times USDJPY hit 122.00 before it could actually break through... That being said, if news is bad, if there are geopolitical or signicant economic events, or if there is a surprise of some other sort, then no amount of technical trading will save you from the fundamentals. But yes, preparation, psychology, etc. is completely different. You have to do what is right for you. Above all else though, as I've stated before, stick to your plan and exercise discipline. That is absolutely key in this game. :cool:
Music_Producer
06-01-2007 07:17 PM
Hey Shard.. love the 2nd tune as well.. I don't know how to classify the music.. it's both Chicane-ish but would also t well in a video game soundtrack ;) I'll send some of my mp3s to you as well. What do you think of aud/jpy right now? Do you feel like getting in? I look at gbp/jpy (241) and cad/jpy (114) and usd/jpy (122) All these guys are at higher levels than the aud/jpy... so sometimes I think maybe aud/jpy can go up by 5-10 k pips. As long as there is a nice interest rate differential.. i know all funds would keep buying aud/jpy regardless of risk factors. Sure there will be some dips along the way .. but they would present as further buying opportunities.. I would think. This is what I'm feeling at the moment.. it's very tempting but you know how I am when it comes to risk. To think that I sold all my aud/jpy when I had bought it at 95 :mad: Could have still been making interest lol.
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~Shard~
Quote:
06-01-2007 09:04 PM
Originally Posted by Music_Producer (Post 3696731) Hey Shard.. love the 2nd tune as well.. I don't know how to classify the music.. it's both Chicane-ish but would also t well in a video game soundtrack ;) I'll send some of my mp3s to you as well.
Thanks, I truly appreciate the feedback. :) I'll e-mail you a couple more tunes this weekend... perhaps one later tonight if I get a chance to rip ti from our CD archives...
Quote:
Originally Posted by Music_Producer (Post 3696731) What do you think of aud/jpy right now? Do you feel like getting in? I look at gbp/jpy (241) and cad/jpy (114) and usd/jpy (122) All these guys are at higher levels than the aud/jpy... so sometimes I think maybe aud/jpy can go up by 5-10 k pips. As long as there is a nice interest rate differential.. i know all funds would keep buying aud/jpy regardless of risk factors. Sure there will be some dips along the way .. but they would present as further buying opportunities.. I would think. This is what I'm feeling at the moment.. it's very tempting but you know how I am when it comes to risk. To think that I sold all my aud/jpy when I had bought it at 95 :mad: Could have still been making interest lol.
Yeah, I know what you mean. If only we would have bought after the crash at the end of February! What did AUDJPY hit at that point, 89 cents?! Yikes... Anyway, I'm not sure what to make of the carry trade situation right now. The situation is pretty bullish right now, especially as the BoJ likely will remain on hold for the foreseeable future and will be lucky to get away with one increase this year. There are arguments for a possible unwinding as well though. The US Fed has basically stated they expect growth to be trending up (and therefore ination trending down) which removes the possibility of a rate change, so that area of potential appreciation is not available. Also, rising bond yields are a big cause for concern. Actually the bond situation right now is very intriguing. But that's another matter for discussion as well... ;) This only impacts USDJPY, but still, if one carry trade is impacted, the others may easily follow... The overall uptrend is likely to continue for the time being in my opinion although how much longer is hard to say. At some point though, if things turn, I'd say they're going to turn 180 degrees. It won't be pretty. :cool:
Music_Producer
06-05-2007 05:55 AM
AHHHH New MacBook Pros.. there goes my concentration on trading :D :D :D I gotta get me one of these suckers.. today.. right NOW! It's 5.52 am.. maybe if I go and bang on the apple store's door they might take pity.. I.... can't.... wait..
~Shard~
06-05-2007 08:27 AM
Yes, they do look pretty sweet! A nice signcant update too, not just a speed bump. Santa Rosa, LED displays, 2 GB RAM, more HD space, upgraded video card - it's all good! My wife and I will probably be
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picking one up soon as well. I might hold off just a little while though in ordering due to a) it's summer and we're always busy with things and don't spend much time on the computer and b) with more Leopard news at WWDC, there is a slim chance Apple will offer a partial Leopard rebate for anyone purchasing a new mac between WWDC and the October release date. In forex news, I took a bad short against NZDUSD (it was, and still is, waaaay overbought) and my stop hit for a -25 pip loss as the pair broke 7500. You can't win them all! However I made it back and then some with a nice short on the USDJPY. Opened it up last night at 121.77 and my TP hit this morning at 121.27. Only a $50K lot (I never like using much more than that for technical trades since I still don't trust them completely ;)) but still, I'll take the $250! Anyone catch Bernanke's speech this morning? Haha, silly US, they're screwed... :p ;) :D Seriously, I don't know why people were expecting a US rate cut anytime soon. If anything a rate hike is in order and that will just further exacerbate the housing market's negative situation. Longer term, I don't see good things ahead for the US...

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Music_Producer
Quote:
06-05-2007 02:53 PM
Originally Posted by ~Shard~ (Post 3709638) In forex news, I took a bad short against NZDUSD (it was, and still is, waaaay overbought) and my stop hit for a -25 pip loss as the pair broke 7500. You can't win them all! However I made it back and then some with a nice short on the USDJPY. Opened it up last night at 121.77 and my TP hit this morning at 121.27. Only a $50K lot (I never like using much more than that for technical trades since I still don't trust them completely ;)) but still, I'll take the $250! Anyone catch Bernanke's speech this morning? Haha, silly US, they're screwed... :p ;) :D Seriously, I don't know why people were expecting a US rate cut anytime soon. If anything a rate hike is in order and that will just further exacerbate the housing market's negative situation. Longer term, I don't see good things ahead for the US...
Yeah.. that nzd and aud are unpredictable.. just when you think they're going to fall they shoot up by like 50 pips. I'm not touching those unless japan raises rates surprising everyone. People, unfortunately, are always optimistic. You should hear the 'analysts' talk about the real estate problem. It went from 'Oh nothing will happen' to 'Maybe a little soft landing' to 'It's really bad'.. but now again they're saying that the housing market has bottomed. Bah.. get ready for another 30-50% drop. The US has to raise rates.. I said that like 2 years ago.. hey Bush should appoint me to the Fed. Then I'll give you guys pre-news info :p Oh and on today's ISM trade, got a re-quote from cmc. My currenex account should be active any time soon.. so will post on how that works out for me.
~Shard~
Let me know how the currenex account works out, perhaps I'll switch as well... :)
06-05-2007 05:43 PM
StuNew78
Quote:
06-05-2007 05:44 PM
Originally Posted by Music_Producer (Post 3708626) AHHHH New MacBook Pros.. there goes my concentration on trading :D :D :D I gotta get me one of these suckers.. today.. right NOW! It's 5.52 am.. maybe if I go and bang on the apple store's door they might take pity.. I.... can't.... wait..
I just bought my MBP 4 weeks ago... :confused: Now I missed out on DX10 for my gaming in between
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releases :rolleyes: I lost quite abit on the NZD/USD. I've decided to retire from TA trading. I'm going to stick to news for a few months and see what my results are like. music_producer I thought you'd like to have a look at this video care of Felix's service. It just shows using MB trading for news releases. https://www.secretnewsweapon.com/MBTrading34.html The platform is not very intuitive, but the service seems very good.
~Shard~
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06-05-2007 05:52 PM
Originally Posted by StuNew78 (Post 3712909) I just bought my MBP 4 weeks ago... :confused: Now I missed out on DX10 for my gaming in between releases :rolleyes:
That's to bad Stu, I'm sorry to hear that. :( Were you a member of MacRumors at the time of your purchase? I guess a tough lesson for next time is to always check the rumor mill for what it's worth. Still, doesn't help you in your current situation, so I feel for ya...
Quote:
Originally Posted by StuNew78 (Post 3712909) I lost quite abit on the NZD/USD. I've decided to retire from TA trading. I'm going to stick to news for a few months and see what my results are like.
One of the keys of technical trading is to employ intelligent stop losses. If you are trading purely on technicals, then have stops which reect that. Identify and conrm key resistance and support levels and place your stops just past these points. That way, if a resistance line is hit, you won't get stopped out, but if it is breached, then your stop will hit, which is a good thing because in all likelihood the trade is about top turn against you. Know when the deal is done. Also, always keep in mind what economic releases there are in the near future which could adversely affect your pair. Technicals mean squat if economic news deviates signicantly from expectations. Above all else though, hang in there! Never give up and keep learning. As I've said before, trading takes discipline. You need to completely remove emotion form your trading. I like to say that the equal twins of disaster in trading are Fear and Greed. :cool:
~Shard~
06-05-2007 06:32 PM
Excellent trade on the Aussie GDP report! Traded AUDUSD, in and out in 4 seconds at, 8385-8397 for 12 pips, no requotes, no nothing. I wish they could all go that smoothly! :cool:
Music_Producer
06-05-2007 06:52 PM
I was reading a bit and it seems that nzd's going up due to another rate hike expectation. Bad time to trade whenever any interest rate announcement is close.. so stay away from those pairs. Just stick to gbp/usd or eur/usd if trading technicals.
2 of 12
1/15/08 8:36 PM
I'm glad I waited for the MBP.. it's been an agonizing wait but worth it. :) Stu, I don't know how that software works now.. but when I used it, it was worthless. Also, I was faster than it.. so it doesn't make sense for me to fork out extra money just for it to do something about 2 seconds later than what I can usually do. Watch out for any third party solutions.. remember you are not in control of your trades.. the software is. You are, eventually using the internet.. and if there is some slight latency and that software clicks a few seconds late.. you could be out by a lot of pips. I couldn't log into my cmc platform .. so i missed that trade. Good one though shard!
~Shard~
Quote:
06-05-2007 07:18 PM
Originally Posted by Music_Producer (Post 3713178) I couldn't log into my cmc platform .. so i missed that trade. Good one though shard!
Man, that sucks - I can totally see why you're eager to move away from CMC... :( And yeah, the trade worked out well. Obviously if I would have held on I could have made more, but then that wouldn't have been trading the news, now would it? ;) :cool: Do you expect anything big to happen regarding the EUR interest rate announcement tomorrow AM? I'll be watching it just in case... I assume a rate hike is expected and essentially already priced in due to the recent upward movement of EURUSD?
Music_Producer
06-05-2007 09:01 PM
Yup, a hike is expected at ecb's interest rate decision tomorrow, and that is priced in. Before that rate decision though, check out what the eur/usd levels are. If they go way too high (1.3550 or so) and rate comes out as expected.. then eur/usd should drop 10-20 pips (who knows.. could drop more) Of course, watch out if they don't change the rates at all.. eur/usd should drop a good 50-70 pips then.
~Shard~
Quote:
06-05-2007 09:23 PM
Originally Posted by Music_Producer (Post 3713696) Yup, a hike is expected at ecb's interest rate decision tomorrow, and that is priced in. Before that rate decision though, check out what the eur/usd levels are. If they go way too high (1.3550 or so) and rate comes out as expected.. then eur/usd should drop 10-20 pips (who knows.. could drop more) Of course, watch out if they don't change the rates at all.. eur/usd should drop a good 50-70 pips then.
Will do - I'll be watching! I'll also be watching the kiwi interest rate decision later in the day - I have a feeling that's going to move the NZDUSD regardless of what the announcement is! ;)
3 of 12
1/15/08 8:36 PM
StuNew78
Quote:
06-06-2007 01:00 AM
Originally Posted by Music_Producer (Post 3713178) I was reading a bit and it seems that nzd's going up due to another rate hike expectation. Bad time to trade whenever any interest rate announcement is close.. so stay away from those pairs. Just stick to gbp/usd or eur/usd if trading technicals. I'm glad I waited for the MBP.. it's been an agonizing wait but worth it. :) Stu, I don't know how that software works now.. but when I used it, it was worthless. Also, I was faster than it.. so it doesn't make sense for me to fork out extra money just for it to do something about 2 seconds later than what I can usually do. Watch out for any third party solutions.. remember you are not in control of your trades.. the software is. You are, eventually using the internet.. and if there is some slight latency and that software clicks a few seconds late.. you could be out by a lot of pips. I couldn't log into my cmc platform .. so i missed that trade. Good one though shard!
MP, I was thinking more of the video as an example of how MB Trading is currently operating. Seems alot of news traders are moving over to them, and with your CMC problems thought it might be an option? I've just opened up an account but won't know for several weeks how it performs for me.
Music_Producer
Quote:
06-06-2007 02:46 AM
Originally Posted by StuNew78 (Post 3714338) MP, I was thinking more of the video as an example of how MB Trading is currently operating. Seems alot of news traders are moving over to them, and with your CMC problems thought it might be an option? I've just opened up an account but won't know for several weeks how it performs for me.
Ahh.. sorry :o I do have a mb trading account, with very little money in it though. I'll give it a try soon enough.. there was a lot of slippage when I rst tried it (like 20-40 pips) So I just gave up on it, and completely forgot about it. A few weeks ago I tried it out and it had signicantly improved, most of my trades were executed instantly, and no slippage. Of course, I was trading with very small lots, just to make sure I lost a little bit in the event of slippage.. but it seemed great. I'm just waiting for my currenex account to be active. I already have the account #, have wired the funds.. but am waiting for conrmation, etc. Should be up and running, hopefully by tomorrow.
~Shard~
06-06-2007 06:49 AM
Weird morning - things I thought should happen didn't. ;) But, since there was no movement I didn't take any trades, so no harm no foul. The Canadian data came out way worse than expected, yet the USDCAD didn't move much - perhaps due to the US data? :confused: Then EURUSD tanked for some reason <shrug> - I can only assume it perhaps had something to do with Trichet's speech?
4 of 12
1/15/08 8:36 PM
No worries - hopefully the kiwi report this afternoon will provide some trading opportunity.
StuNew78
Quote:
06-06-2007 08:03 AM
Originally Posted by ~Shard~ (Post 3715315) Weird morning - things I thought should happen didn't. ;) But, since there was no movement I didn't take any trades, so no harm no foul. The Canadian data came out way worse than expected, yet the USDCAD didn't move much - perhaps due to the US data? :confused: Then EURUSD tanked for some reason <shrug> - I can only assume it perhaps had something to do with Trichet's speech? No worries - hopefully the kiwi report this afternoon will provide some trading opportunity.
Shard, Looks as if the AUD/NZD is a strong buy a the moment. I just watched the head forex analyst on CNBCplus from UBS say it should hit up to 1.14/1.15 I'm trying to get my condence back after my last TA trade :) What would your take on this be? http://www.ubs.com/1/e/ubs_ch/wealth...ml#ForexNews_D
~Shard~
Quote:
06-06-2007 08:19 AM
Originally Posted by StuNew78 (Post 3715666) Shard, Looks as if the AUD/NZD is a strong buy a the moment. I just watched the head forex analyst on CNBCplus from UBS say it should hit up to 1.14/1.15 I'm trying to get my condence back after my last TA trade :) What would your take on this be? http://www.ubs.com/1/e/ubs_ch/wealth...ml#ForexNews_D
My general rule of thumb is that if I read about something in the news, it's too late to trade. ;) Currency strategies only hit the "common folk" after all the insiders have established their positions and then disseminate this information throughout the media to generate hype. The speculators will then jump all over the news, the insiders will get out with their prots and leave everyone else high and dry. This is why trading on speculation is one of my cardinal no-nos of trading - I never do it. :cool: So, in this specic case, if they are saying AUDNZD is a strong buy right now, I'd take that with a grain of salt. Also, this has no bearing whatsoever on the techical aspect of the pair, so regardless of the news, I would only enter a technical trade on the pair if several of my indicators lined up and were consistent. In other words, if my strategy is to enter a technical trade on a pair, then news such as this is irrelevant, as I am trading the techicals not the news/hype. I do not watch the AUDNZD pair at all, so I can't comment on its current levels. Watching too many pairs makes me lose focus. I prefer to watch 6-7 pairs max and dedicate my attention to just them so I can be in better touch and have a better feel and understanding of how the pairs behave and such. Normally I watch EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUDJPY, USDCHF and USDJPY. I follow AUDUSD and NZDUSD from time to time but not on a regaular basis.
5 of 12
1/15/08 8:36 PM
I will be watching the NZD report this afternoon though. It's a really interesting situation - fundamentally, NZ has no need to increase rates, yet the expectation is that they will and furthermore this has already been priced into the currency. Also, there is the articial ination to consider, what with the kiwi being a carry currency. If the BoNZ does indeed hike rates, I don't see the pair going up (these levels are currently technically unsustainable) yet there that's damn carry inuence again. ;) The hike appears to be priced in tough, so if they chose to leave rates the same, look out below! :D ;) Not sure if I've been much help, but these are just some of my thoughts on the matter... If you have any other questions just ask. :cool:
Music_Producer
06-06-2007 02:07 PM
Crap! This one moved before I could react.. could have been an easy 40 pips *sob!* How did you guys do? Hey Shard, if you had still held on to your nzd short you would have been screwed :p
nhallmark
06-06-2007 02:19 PM
Yeah, I saw it spike before I got the news so I stayed out. I got 12 pips on AUD GDP yesterday though...guess we tied, Shard :p MP, Have you got in on one trade since you traded $2 mil on that AUD trade a few weeks ago? I haven't tried trading more than 1 mil yet and I dont think I will for fear of being upgraded to the unlimited requote package :p Let us know how currenex goes. What broker did you decide on?
Music_Producer
Quote:
06-06-2007 04:45 PM
Originally Posted by nhallmark (Post 3717952) MP, Have you got in on one trade since you traded $2 mil on that AUD trade a few weeks ago? I haven't tried trading more than 1 mil yet and I dont think I will for fear of being upgraded to the unlimited requote package :p Let us know how currenex goes. What broker did you decide on?
LOL.. unlimited requote package.. yeah that's what I currently have. You want one? :p Nope, I haven't been able to trade anything at all with cmc.. last time they didn't even let me log in (they blamed server issues.. sure, the server doesn't like me apparently) My currenex account is up and running :D I'm gonna try it on the aussie trade today.. will let you know how it goes. Where have you been?! I thought your internet died or something.
Music_Producer
22 pips on a 5 million lot :eek: :D :D Currenex rules!!! Rocks! :D D :D :D Everything!:
06-06-2007 06:37 PM
6 of 12
1/15/08 8:36 PM
nhallmark
Damn, Im jealous ;) I was happy about my 16 pips trading $1 mil until I read that :p
06-06-2007 07:10 PM
I haven't been posting lately because Ive been out enjoying california and sleeping through trades...I slept right through UK PMI and ISM the other day and then the EUR rate decision today :rolleyes: What's the minimum deposit for the broker you went with?
Music_Producer
Quote:
06-06-2007 07:59 PM
Originally Posted by nhallmark (Post 3719271) What's the minimum deposit for the broker you went with?
Oops, I forgot to answer that one - I went with Capital Forex - their minimum requirement is 50 k to open a currenex acct..and you have to submit paperwork that shows assets, experience, etc.. that's why it took a long time to open. However, I opened with a 100 k account as they charge slightly lower commissions with that. The larger the deposit amount, the lower the commissions go.
StuNew78
Quote:
06-07-2007 01:19 AM
Originally Posted by Music_Producer (Post 3719121) 22 pips on a 5 million lot :eek: :D :D Currenex rules!!! Rocks! :D D :D :D Everything!:
Oh my god. :D Inspiring MP... inspiring. It might be time for a bloomberg feed MP hahaha
Music_Producer
Quote:
06-07-2007 02:08 AM
Originally Posted by StuNew78 (Post 3720462) Oh my god. :D Inspiring MP... inspiring. It might be time for a bloomberg feed MP hahaha
Hopefully all my trades go in that manner.. and it's not just one blockbuster one :p I contacted bloomberg a long time ago, but they never got back to me. Sent them emails, left messages.. but nothing. Maybe there's some sort of selection criteria and I obviously don't match that (because I'm not a bank or a hedge fund)
7 of 12
1/15/08 8:36 PM
No luck with Reuters either. So I'm dealing with TTN for now.. so far so good.. but the currenex platform seems to react faster.. so i have to be really, really quick.
Music_Producer
06-07-2007 04:52 AM
12 pips on the UK interest rate report.. they kept the rates the same, so the pound dipped. Went about 20-24 pips more further down.. interestingly the pound dropped from 1.9940 or so.. down to 1.9880 during the london session.. maybe they expected rates to remain the same?
~Shard~
Quote:
06-07-2007 07:51 AM
Originally Posted by Music_Producer (Post 3717875) Crap! This one moved before I could react.. could have been an easy 40 pips *sob!* How did you guys do? Hey Shard, if you had still held on to your nzd short you would have been screwed
Yeah, it moved too quickly on me as well. I honestly didn't think it would shoot up so much, so I technically could have got in near the bottom of the spike, but was then concerned that I had missed the opportunity and that it might only be a small spike upwards. So, I missed this one, but there will always be another... ;) And yes, the whole NZDUSD thing further illustrates my point of having a strategy and sticking to it. I shorted it, a ket resistance line was crossed, I knew the trade was broken, so I got out for a slight loss. If I would have been stubborn or tried to at least break even, I would have lost my shirt. :cool:
Quote:
Originally Posted by Music_Producer (Post 3719121) 22 pips on a 5 million lot :eek: :D Currenex rules!!! Rocks! :D Everything!
Holy crap! So Currenex works pretty slick does it? No requotes, slippage, spread increases during news, or server lag? Not yet at least? ;) If so, I might have to try them as well... I have often thought of moving up to $1M lots on CMC since my condence and trading skills are improviong, however I don't know if I feel comfortable trading such large lots with them due to the hitgh possibility of getting requotes, etc. So remind me again (I know it's mentioned earlier in the thread, I'm just too lazy to nd it right now... :o ;)) what is the minimum deposit you must make? And a $1M lot is the smallest you can trade, correct? Lastly, what margin do you have? 100:1, 200:1? Great job again Music_Producer - I wish you continued success and am hoping that this wasn't a one-time thing (i.e. that you'll soon be upgraded to the unlimited re-quote package ;))
nhallmark
06-07-2007 03:43 PM
Hey guys :) I set my alarm for 5:30 thinking the UK rate decision was at 6 ...which it was in texas time. So, I missed the trade by 2 hours :o Oh well, I probably wouldnt have traded anyway. Do any of you have experience with dukascopy? Im looking at them but with the 50k minimum I might as well go with currenex.
8 of 12
1/15/08 8:36 PM
~Shard~
06-07-2007 08:59 PM
Looking for some good Canadian and US reports tomorrow morning to nish off the week....
Music_Producer
20 pips on USD/CAD trade :D
06-08-2007 04:09 AM
Shard, currenex is great (so far) No slippage, no re-quote cr*p. I've seen spreads widen .. but usually not more than 2-3 pips. I'm sure they get wider during interest rate announcements.. but I haven't traded those on that platform yet so I don't know. The minimum deposit is $50,000 and minimum trade is 1 million units. I think you also have to meet a minimum requirement of 20-30 million units/month or something of that sort. My current margin is 100:1 but that can change depending on what documents you sign, and submit some kind of collateral (additional deposit) etc. It's all negotiable. Nathan, I've heard that dukascopy has lower spreads than currenex. Maybe i'll sign up for a demo and check it out. So far currenex seems good, hey maybe 2-3 more protable trades and they'll kick me out :p Oh, btw my wife just traded on cmc (I yelled 'BUY!' lol) and she got a re-quote. I loved that she instantly blurted out 'that's cheating' :D
Music_Producer
06-08-2007 05:35 AM
12 pips on a 4 million lot, currenex was a little faster than me but what the heck.. still made good prot :D :D :D Excellent week, great platform.. how did you guys do?
~Shard~
Hahahaha! :D
06-08-2007 05:37 AM
CMC just re-quoted themselves out of money! I shorted the USDCAD based on the news just now but got in a little late. Sold at 1.0651, bought at 1.0647 - only 4 pips, but with a $200K lot I was ne with that. So, I'm thinking my trade is done. 4 pips, not bad, acted late, my own fault (since I was watching GBPUSD as well). Well, then I notice my balance was still moving. :confused: Then a requote pops up. Turns out my initial sell order didn't get executed but my buy order did! :eek: Well, after a second of panic to gure out what the heck the situation was, I realized I technically bought at 1.0647, which was the bottom of the news spike, and I watched with a sigh of relief as the price recovered back to 1.0656. So, thanks to CMC being re-quote happy, I more than doubled my earnings and made 9 pips instead of 4. :D When I nally gured out what happened a bastardly smirk appeared on my face. ;) So there you have it everyone, that's how you fade the spike on a news trade. Lesson learned. Please do not try this at home. :p :cool:
Music_Producer
06-08-2007 05:45 AM
Lol Shard! Good going.. teaches them a lesson.. suckers. But you see how scary that can get? Now imagine if you were trading a 2 million lot.. and those a$$holes didn't let your trade go through when you clicked it.. but let it go a few seconds later. Hell, that infuriates me.. I have had that happen a few times. Especially with the barrage of re-quotes.. and when you're clicking buy/sell those idiots trigger an order that you didn't want executed!
9 of 12
1/15/08 8:36 PM
Currenex is vastly different.. you press one key, it executes.. no games. No sweating around and trying to see if your balance is intact or still moving around. I hope to get my hands on that currenex keyboard, that's one toy I'm dying to have after I can get a bloody macbook pro in stock at an apple store!!
StuNew78
I propose a trading room. All in favour say aye.
06-08-2007 11:43 AM
~Shard~
06-08-2007 12:11 PM
I don't think we need much more than this thread in terms of trading discussion. There are only 4 or 5 regulars here so I think this thread is adequate. :) Plus, this is MacRumors, it's not exactly meant to be heavily focused on other interests. ;) I think having this thread in the Community Discussion section is just ne. If we all wanted to get more in depth we'd join an actual forex forum methinks... ;) :cool:
Britguy
News trades Hi,
06-09-2007 08:54 AM
I traded the news with CMC, and I was relatively successful (over 8 months), but all of a sudden, my order just hangs for 30secs. So I guess, it is time to move on. I asked the helpdesk why this was, and they said I would have to speak to the dealers, and hung up on me. Is manual/slow execution reversable, or is it permanent with CMC? I was curious to hear Music Producers comments on Currenex (a move I have contemplated for a while). Can you tell me do you use limit orders for the news, or market orders? Regards, Britguy
Music_Producer
06-09-2007 11:48 AM
Hey Britguy, CMC will obviously employ every tactic in the book to shut you down (manual execution, slippage, re-quotes, etc) They don't want protable traders.. as soon as you start having problems, you should withdraw your money and close your account. It makes no sense losing all your prots because of one bad (caused by cmc) trade. Currenex is a great platform, it all depends on the host broker.. on whether they want you to be protable or not. So far, since I'm new with capital forex, I have had no problems. Let's see how long that goes on for. I use market orders for trades.. but i won't be trading very signicant reports like the NFP or interest rate reports, where the spread may widen quite a bit.. or I might not get a good price. Email the capital forex folks, and ask for a demo of the currenex portal. Try it out and see if it suits your trading strategy. There are more than enough reports to trade, which yield some good prot and there's not that much spread madness going on.
10 of 12
1/15/08 8:36 PM
Music_Producer
06-09-2007 07:47 PM
Just got my SR MBP 2.4 ghz today :) God, this thing is gorgeous. I've been buying apple products since 2001, you'd think I'm used to it by now, but no.. right from opening the packaging of this baby to powering her up.. ahhh.. my wife caught me giggling and frothing at the mouth. She went "So if this macbook pro was alive, who would you choose? Me or her?" I replied, "No contest baby, sorry!" and stroked my macbook :D Don't think I'm gonna get dinner tonight lol.
~Shard~
Nice! :)
06-09-2007 08:19 PM
Yeah, we will be picking up a new MBP in the near future as well. We're rst of all going to wait until after WWDC to see if there is any type of partial rebate/credit offered for Leopard on any new Macs purchased and then will decide whether to actually wait for Leopard or not. On the one hand, we have been waiting a long time, and specically for this update, but on the other hand, we have so much on the go in the summer that it's tough to justify buying a laptop right now since we'd never use it until fall anyway! Regardless, we'll be enjoying a nice new SR MBP as well in the near future. :cool:
Britguy
Hi,
06-10-2007 02:19 AM
Thanks for the advice. Which CMC product were you using? Forex, CFD or Spreadbetting? Is there a way to keep under the radar with this rm, to prevent you getting agged? In CMCs defence I thought they were an awesome company, before my order kept getting delayed. Out of curiosity, did anyone with problems at CMC call up the dealing desk and ask why the quotes hung? or did you just move on. MP, I wish you luck with currenex, but I heard that they ban you too, if you keep hitting the same banks on their platform. Unless you trade the same size, between releases as you do at news releases. Cheers, Britguy
Amber
06-10-2007 07:50 AM
I've been looking to get into Forex but don't have much money to spare. Can I start with 50 just to learn? I'm not sure where to start.
Toreador93
Quote:
06-10-2007 06:22 PM
Originally Posted by Amber (Post 3734466) I've been looking to get into Forex but don't have much money to spare. Can I start with 50 just to learn? I'm not sure where to start.
11 of 12
1/15/08 8:36 PM
I'm pretty sure Oanda has no minimum account or trade sizes. A lot of the big spenders on this forum seem to have moved on from Oanda because their spreads on news trading are quite large. If you are totally new, you might want to start a demo account with Oanda or another broker before you spend real money. Also, if you haven't, I would suggest reading this whole thread. There is lots of helpful information here, but it may take you a few days or more to get through it. You should also visit some dedicated FOREX forums, I like www.babypips.com , and www.investopedia.com has a lot of helpful information.
Music_Producer
06-10-2007 08:59 PM
Amber, just like Toreador mentioned.. you can start with no money.. just sign up for a demo account with any broker, I'd recommend trading on a demo account for a good 2-3 months. Just so you get familiar with every possible trading situation. Shard, nathan.. and to everyone who reads this forum and understands carry trading.. I just had a brilliant idea (although it might be quite common) I was reading a news article about how 30,000 soccer fans chipped in some money (like $50 each) .. and they have enough money to buy a 3 or 4 tier soccer club! Now, if we could do that with carry trades. :D Let's say 500 people - invest $500 each. In a regular money market account, each person investing $500 would probably make 5% .. so that's $2.08 a month (approximate) However, if we invested a part of the total $250,000 in a carry trade.. with enough amount left for a drop of even 15,000 pips, the interest accrued would be $16 per person/month! That's a return of 40%! The more the number of people, obviously the better it gets, because then there would be a sufcient amount of money to accomodate for an innite drop.. and the interest would keep coming in. What do you guys think?

12 of 12
1/15/08 8:36 PM

~Shard~
Quote:
06-10-2007 09:44 PM
Originally Posted by Music_Producer (Post 3737470) Shard, nathan.. and to everyone who reads this forum and understands carry trading.. I just had a brilliant idea (although it might be quite common) I was reading a news article about how 30,000 soccer fans chipped in some money (like $50 each) .. and they have enough money to buy a 3 or 4 tier soccer club! Now, if we could do that with carry trades. :D Let's say 500 people - invest $500 each. In a regular money market account, each person investing $500 would probably make 5% .. so that's $2.08 a month (approximate) However, if we invested a part of the total $250,000 in a carry trade.. with enough amount left for a drop of even 15,000 pips, the interest accrued would be $16 per person/month! That's a return of 40%! The more the number of people, obviously the better it gets, because then there would be a sufcient amount of money to accomodate for an innite drop.. and the interest would keep coming in. What do you guys think?
Not a bad idea at all Music_Producer! Along these same lines I have often thought what if we simply made an arrangement, pooled our money, thus buying us more leverage to take advantage of, and split the proceeds? Imagine how much we could make if we traded $100M lots, even just a few times! :D ;) I guess this whole concept comes back to our idea of starting a hedge fund... ;) But yes, I could see something like this working, especially with a vehicle such as the carry trade. Urgh, that damn AUDJPY is just so high now! Or is it? :rolleyes: Is it going to hit 110, or come back down into the 90s? I am seriously considering getting back into it once there is another correction as we saw at the end of February. Anyway, I would denitely give this some thought. Let me know if you do any more thinking about it ad want to discuss it further - we can either do it here or via PM or e-mail. Regardless, make no mistake, I would denitely consider this or a plan like it in all seriousness. :cool:
nhallmark
Quote:
06-11-2007 08:34 PM
Originally Posted by Music_Producer (Post 3737470) Shard, nathan.. and to everyone who reads this forum and understands carry trading.. I just had a brilliant idea (although it might be quite common) I was reading a news article about how 30,000 soccer fans chipped in some money (like $50 each) .. and they have enough money to buy a 3 or 4 tier soccer club! Now, if we could do that with carry trades. :D Let's say 500 people - invest $500 each. In a regular money market account, each person investing
1 of 11
1/15/08 8:37 PM
$500 would probably make 5% .. so that's $2.08 a month (approximate) However, if we invested a part of the total $250,000 in a carry trade.. with enough amount left for a drop of even 15,000 pips, the interest accrued would be $16 per person/month! That's a return of 40%! The more the number of people, obviously the better it gets, because then there would be a sufcient amount of money to accomodate for an innite drop.. and the interest would keep coming in. What do you guys think?
I think its a great idea...Im denitely in. There are a few issues to think about though...does currenex have sub accounts? We would need something to split the money like sub accounts, etc. and paperwork obviously, because come tax time...if you had all the money in your personal account you would be subject to those taxes. Also, we would need the paperwork because if it isnt there, then (correct me if Im wrong) it would fall under gift tax if the amount is over 11,000.00 blah, blah, blah...Im sure you guys have already realized this...just sayin' Also, there seems to be rumors that the BoJ is going to hike again soon and "theories" that the current carry situation cant continue like it is....but hey, if the BoJ hikes again at the next meeting and some G7 dude blinks his left eye 3 times, we could see another big drop, which might be a good time to enter. Anyway, Im just rambling. How did you guys like leapord today? With the grass desktop pic, it kind of reminded me of vista...I hate saying that but that was my initial thought. I was really hoping for new hardware today also...but I guess it will come when "the lord"(steve:p ) sees t.
nhallmark
26 pips on UK CPI :D Did you guys trade it?
06-12-2007 02:26 AM
Music_Producer
06-12-2007 06:12 AM
Sweet trade nathan! At this rate you're going to buy Apple in .. well.. maybe 5 years. I was asleep.. my alarm went off.. and I just kinda kicked it away :o Yeah, I'm serious about the fund topic.. so that makes 3 of us.. now we need 497 more people.. :D I've always wanted to start a fund that could consist of average or beginner investors.. and with minimal amounts. I know that anyone who's in school, or just working hard.. has a hard time to invest something like 25-50 k in a mutual fund, when you don't know if it will give decent returns or just tank. So $500 would be a good starting point. The least we can offer is double the interest rate of a current savings account. Nathan, you can have sub accounts with any currenex platform.. but i'm not sure if this would work that way. Imagine 500 sub accounts, with trades going on in each one.. would be a nightmare to implement. I'm sure these hedge funds tackle the tax issue in some manner (which i am not aware of yet) But if we do the homework, we can nd out how to get about it. The initial part is to see if people do have an interest in this venture. Leopard (not leapord as you put it :p) at WWDC was so disappointing. Not the OS itself.. but the so called 'secret features' .. sheesh! It's ok though, Apple's made me uber happy by releasing the SR MBP. I won't be mad at Apple for another year if they don't come out with anything new ;) I'll check with the Access stuff nathan.. that's all 'exotic' stuff (all stuff that comes from europe) will get back
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1/15/08 8:37 PM
to you regarding availability.
~Shard~
Didn!t trade the report this morning, I chose sleep instead. :o
06-12-2007 08:42 AM
Yeah, I think setting up some type of fund along these lines is a great idea. We!d have to look into what type of regulations there are though and all that legal mumbo jumbo. Perhaps an added wrinkle that I live in Canada as well... :o Although perhaps that would strengthen the fund!s appeal because then we could market it as international. :D We!d also have to decide how to position it. I like your idea of targeting younger people. If that were the case, we could position the fund as essentially a money market fund/savings fund. Basically as a high interest account where your principal is guaranteed. Minimum deposit is $500 (or whatever amount) and we offer 3%-4% per annum or something along those lines. Then, behind the scenes (heh heh ;)) we leverage the power of, well, leverage ;) and use our margin on a platform such as Currenex and start making gobs of money with other people!s money. If we could average double-digit percentage gains per year (especially if we focused on a carry trade strategy) and only had to pay out 4% that would be alright... The three of us could be the fund managers and basically keep the rest! After all, we are the ones running the fund, making the trades and taking on all the risk, especially if we are guaranteeing principles. Even 500 people @ $500/person = $250K. Use $100K of that for $10M @ 1% margin on a carry trade and that would be some decent income. Use another $100K for trading $10M lots and net about 50 pips a month or so that!s $50K/month! As for the other $50K, whatever... I!ll do some commodity trading with it and will just try not to pull an Amaranth :eek: ;) I know a couple day traders here who we could probably recruit if we wanted to play the stock market as well... they!re far better at it than I I also know a bond trader who works for a large capital management rm here in town... Anywho, just thinking out loud here, we!d need to come up with a solid plan and look into the details. :) If we are serious, we can perhaps call on my wife!s expertise. She is currently a Director of Strategic Business Development. She knows how to write strategy like the back of her hand. She writes corporate business plans, handles corporate governance and nance, shareholder agreements, etc. etc. She also was a Director of Marketing previously, so would know how to market such a fund I!m thinking. If nothing else, she is an excellent business plan writer and could no doubt assist us on that side of things. My concerns would be regarding things such as legal issues, becoming a corporation, taxation, SOX compliance, regulations, etc. I honestly know nothing about the business side of the nancial world in this repsect. And if we are serious about this, then perhaps taking it ofine, or at least chatting via e-mail would be more appropriate than on an open forum, giving away our secret plans for world domination! :D :cool:
Britguy
MP, how did you do with currenex on UK CPI?
06-12-2007 09:18 AM
mikler1
I there a mac equivalent of metastock?
06-12-2007 01:07 PM
Hi! Got my rst mac yesterday (nally you guys moved to Intel :-) I wondered if there is a mac based equivalent of Metastock rather than using a java based browser system Comments/advice appreciated.
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Thanks Mik
Music_Producer
06-13-2007 05:42 AM
18 pips on US Retail Sales report.. currenex is quite fast.. it really surprised me today.. hey I didn't get any re-quotes ;-) I don't know of any mac equivalent for metastock trader.. since i've never used it at all. Hopefully someone else can answer that. Or there's always the Windows way via BootCamp/Parallels :p
nhallmark
13 pips on US retail sales...did you guys trade? Edit: good job MP! How much were you trading if you dont mind saying?
06-13-2007 05:49 AM
Music_Producer
Quote:
06-13-2007 05:58 AM
Originally Posted by nhallmark (Post 3752137) 13 pips on US retail sales...did you guys trade? Edit: good job MP! How much were you trading if you dont mind saying?
Hey man, just did a regular 1 million lot on this one. I don't like the US reports too much.. lately they've been lackluster. I like the UK, Aussie and NZ reports.. however the NZ currency moves almost at the same time that the news comes out.. or even before, it's weird. I've always been slow with trading NZD. I might just skip the NZ retail sales report this evening.
~Shard~
Beat me by one nathan, I grabbed 12 pips. ;)
06-13-2007 10:32 AM
I'm glad currenex is working so far for you Music_Prodcuer. Keep us posted on any suspicious activity if you encounter any... ;) And give some thought to my above post as well - I'd love to chat more about things in private... :cool:
Music_Producer
Hey Shard.. emailing you right now :)
06-13-2007 03:53 PM
26 pips on NZD/USD trade.. I don't know if I was seeing things but I had a 1 pip spread on nzd/usd in currenex :eek: I only traded a million, because I'm fairly cautious of nzd reports.. now I wish I had maxed out my margin :p
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Music_Producer
Quote:
06-13-2007 04:08 PM
Originally Posted by Britguy (Post 3747182) MP, how did you do with currenex on UK CPI?
Hey Britguy, I missed out on that CPI trade.. I was asleep and failed to wake up in spite of the alarm going off. That was a really good trade.. shouldn't have missed it, but I guess I was just too tired. I wonder where GBP/USD is going to go now. I have a feeling it might make one more attempt to go towards 2.00 especially if interest rates are hiked.. but if there are hints that the US might raise rates as well.. then it will be a tug of war.
nhallmark
We tied...I got 26 pips also :D I did it with a 5 pip spread though, hah! :p
06-13-2007 04:11 PM
Music_Producer
Quote:
06-13-2007 04:39 PM
Originally Posted by nhallmark (Post 3754976) We tied...I got 26 pips also :D I did it with a 5 pip spread though, hah! :p
Currenex moves faster than CMC.. try dueling with me on Currenex.. :p
~Shard~
Quote:
06-13-2007 05:47 PM
Originally Posted by Music_Producer (Post 3755089) Currenex moves faster than CMC.. try dueling with me on Currenex.. :p
Great job on the NZD trade Music_Producer! As for the speed of Currenex, I don't know if that's a good thing or a bad thing - in other words, I don't know if my reexes are quick enough to capitalize on such quick movements! :o ;) So are your Currenex trades still lasting only a couple of seconds? What is the order execution process like in terms of the order window for buying/selling - i.e. how quick can you open and then close positions and how many clicks? It's pretty seamless I am assuming? Thanks for the e-mail, I'll read through it later tonight - I have to run for now though. ;) I'll denitely respond in the next couple of days... :)
StuNew78
06-13-2007 07:56 PM
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1/15/08 8:37 PM
+26 pips on NZD retail sales. Thought it would drop lower for a while, but no :( US retail sales gave me +4 pips. I want currenex!
Music_Producer
06-14-2007 01:39 AM
10 pips on UK retail sales.. very small deviation.. but it was enough to push it up a bit since gbp/usd was at it's lows before the report. Stu, you have to remember that NZD is a carry trade currency. So is AUD. So they have a tendency to keep going up. Reports like retail sales, etc.. can make it go down 20-30 pips.. even 40 at the most.. but then they come back up. What makes them move further is reports related to ination like CPI, etc.. or what the bank chiefs say regarding the currency. Be happy you got 26 pips.. sometimes they can spike back in the opposite direction before you even have a chance to close!
Britguy
06-14-2007 01:46 AM
Well done MP. I think cnx is the way to go. I heard from other traders that mkt orders on cnx were dangerous as you cant control slippage, as with mkt orders you could get lled at the top of the spike etc. Have u any thoughts on this? Britguy
Music_Producer
Quote:
06-14-2007 04:34 AM
Originally Posted by Britguy (Post 3757077) Well done MP. I think cnx is the way to go. I heard from other traders that mkt orders on cnx were dangerous as you cant control slippage, as with mkt orders you could get lled at the top of the spike etc. Have u any thoughts on this? Britguy
I honestly think that depends on the broker.. and the banks (which obviously also contributes to the liquidity present) cnx is simply a platform. I could be a broker and offer you the cnx platform.. where i could decide a 1 pip spread. Another broker could offer a 5 pip spread. It all differs.. A broker that's not too happy with a customer's consistent prot making strategy can easily turn the tables on him. He might inate the spreads during news time, or if he does not have access to many banks.. liquidity may be tight.. and thus spreads increase. Most people however are a little slow when reacting to news.. so that could also be another reason why they get lled at the top of the spike (because they entered a second late) Again, this is why when you trade - trade sensibly. There are many times when i feel like placing my entire account on a trade.. and dream about a massive prot - but that's dangerous. i stick to small lots, as long as the prots are consistent - it's all right. You never know when the broker can turn against you.. it might just happen when you decide to bet your entire account on one trade.. and you end up losing all the prots you
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have worked so hard to accumulate.
Britguy
06-14-2007 07:52 AM
Thats very true. If you go with a big currenex broker they will have access to more bank feeds and liquidity pools than a smaller one. You can therefore get away with scalping, as you are not hitting the same bank. Its only when you start making money, you realise how loaded the game of forex trading is. What margin do you get on cnx?
StuNew78
Quote:
06-14-2007 08:07 AM
Originally Posted by Music_Producer (Post 3757066) 10 pips on UK retail sales.. very small deviation.. but it was enough to push it up a bit since gbp/usd was at it's lows before the report. Stu, you have to remember that NZD is a carry trade currency. So is AUD. So they have a tendency to keep going up. Reports like retail sales, etc.. can make it go down 20-30 pips.. even 40 at the most.. but then they come back up. What makes them move further is reports related to ination like CPI, etc.. or what the bank chiefs say regarding the currency. Be happy you got 26 pips.. sometimes they can spike back in the opposite direction before you even have a chance to close!
MP - You're right on that carry trade thinking. The numbers came out and NZD/USD made a nice decisive move down 39 odd pips, I closed 1/2 of my units and waited to see what would happen, sure enough it retraces about 15 pips and stalls there for about 10 mins. Closed the second half still in prot though. The carry traders must be all thinking the same thing.... Buy buy buy.
Music_Producer
28 pips on US CPI report, 3 million lot - executed beautifully. :D :D :D
06-15-2007 05:35 AM
nhallmark
Good job, MP! I got 17 pips on it :D
06-15-2007 05:36 AM
Music_Producer
Quote:
06-15-2007 05:46 AM
Originally Posted by nhallmark (Post 3763053) Good job, MP! I got 17 pips on it :D
Nice!! I don't know how you don't get requotes with cmc.. everytime my wife tries it, she's unlucky. Maybe they just love you :p
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nhallmark
yeah, Im way overdue for a straight week or two of requotes but it hasn't happened yet.
06-15-2007 06:02 AM
The only reason I can think of is my internet here is 8mb/s and in texas I was at 3mb/s. It might also be because Im using SNW on 90% of my trades now...but I've got requotes with it before so Im not sure. Either way, I just hope I can make it until july 1st without requotes...I'll have enough for dukascopy by then and I wont ever have to worry about CMC's BS again :D
Music_Producer
06-15-2007 06:19 AM
Great! Let us know how dukas works out.. just got 6 pips on the us industrial production report. GBP is very bullish right now. Lets see what consumer condence comes out. If it comes out positive.. gbp might dip temporarily.. but since it's friday.. it might go up 50-80 pips before the markets close. Of course, this is extremely risky.. but there's a chance that might happen.
Kuma76
Quote:
06-15-2007 06:59 AM
i like four x beer , does that count?
~Shard~
Quote:
06-15-2007 07:08 AM
Originally Posted by Kuma76 (Post 3763382) i like four x beer , does that count?
It would if that lame joke hadn't been told a million times in this thread already.... :rolleyes: Seriously, great job on the trades Music_Producer and nathan! I was a little slow this morning and only nabbed 12 pips in total on all 3 sets of reports - but hey, it's Friday! Have a good weekend guys and I'll do some more research regarding your e-mail Music_Producer this weekend. Let's see what we can gure out.... :cool:
Kuma76
Quote:
06-15-2007 07:56 AM
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Originally Posted by ~Shard~ (Post 3763415) It would if that lame joke hadn't been told a million times in this thread already.... :rolleyes: Seriously, great job on the trades Music_Producer and nathan! I was a little slow this morning and only nabbed 12 pips in total on all 3 sets of reports - but hey, it's Friday! Have a good weekend guys and I'll do some more research regarding your e-mail Music_Producer this weekend. Let's see what we can gure out.... :cool:
sorry i should have read the other 1700 posts, please forgive me
~Shard~
Quote:
06-15-2007 08:31 AM
Originally Posted by Kuma76 (Post 3763633) sorry i should have read the other 1700 posts, please forgive me
No worries at all. :) It's just that we do have an established thread here with regular subscribers. If you're not interested in the subject, not willing to learn or are not planning to contribute, might as well just keep the useless comments to yourself. ;) :cool:
Kuma76
sorry people
06-15-2007 08:43 AM
~Shard~
Quote:
06-15-2007 09:45 AM
Originally Posted by Kuma76 (Post 3763812) sorry people
Like I said, no worries! ;)
Toreador93
06-15-2007 11:33 AM
I'd possibly be interested in a carry trade, though I might need to be clear of a few things. Wouldn't you only be making interest on the amount you control? If so, wouldn't a down market eventually take your prots, then account balance, and then give you less interest as your controlling amount goes down with the price? Or is the idea that we will have so much in our account that we can ride through these bears until they become protable again, and still accrue interest? What would assure us prot if, say the Aud/Jpy has just reached its peak as we went long, and made a long-term glide down to 90? Would we just wait it out until we were protable with up-turns or interest?
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As to where you might nd more potential investors, I have a couple ideas. www.prosper.com is a site I just came across yesterday. It is a person-to-person loan system. People ask for loans, and others bid amounts and interest rates to loan to them. If people are willing to give those in debt and bankruptcy loans, I imagine many more would give to successful FOREX traders. Second, there is a huge market in HYIPs (High Yield Investment Programs). Generally, these are all pyramid schemes and other scams, but I've seen some Hedge Fund-ish sites advertised (though I don't know their particular system or legitimacy). You can see a large list at www.ministryofgold.com With these two examples, I'm nearly positive you could nd the amount of funding you're looking for, since there are A LOT of people out there trying to make an easy (and sometimes very risky) dollar.
~Shard~
06-15-2007 11:42 AM
First off, thank you very much for this information, I'll denitely check those sites out as I was unaware of them. As for the carry trade, yes, if the pair drops, the your losses could easily wipe out your interest gains and then some. But, that's the beauty of the carry trade - it just seems to always go up. ;) And yes, if it were to drop and wipe out prots temporarily, we would have enough margin to cover it, and then wait for it to rise again. As long as you don't actually cash out, it would just be a paper loss anyway... Again, thanks for the information. :)
nhallmark
I got a requote on CAD CPI :mad: How did you guys do?
06-19-2007 04:02 AM
Music_Producer
Quote:
06-19-2007 04:16 AM
Originally Posted by nhallmark (Post 3780596) I got a requote on CAD CPI :mad: How did you guys do?
No trade here.. no deviation.. so stayed away. Sucks about that requote :mad:
Britguy
Mp,
06-19-2007 05:48 AM
What is the minimum ac size for capforex currenex? I requested a demo, but they dont give you a dealing limit to try trades, but just to look at the platform. Also, how long did it take for them to set up an ac for you?
nhallmark
Quote:
06-19-2007 08:39 AM
10 of 11
1/15/08 8:37 PM
No trade here.. no deviation.. so stayed away. Sucks about that requote :mad:
Yeah, I was using SNW and felix was trading the core y/y # which did deviate...and it gapped 20 pips then retraced. I was also using TTN though, so if the core m/m deviated and SNW didnt go off, I could still get in. Oh yeah, one question...FF has the minutes tomorrow as "MPC Meeting Minutes" and its usually BoE instead of MPC. Im pretty sure its the same thing, but I wanted to ask to make sure. So is it the same?
Music_Producer
06-19-2007 02:56 PM
Ahh I was wondering why you were going to trade usd/cad. I was thinking of shorting the pair since there was overall USD weakness.. but i didn't.. and the pair dropped another 75 pips or so :rolleyes: Yeah, mpc is same as boe..mpc is the monetary policy committee. Same stuff, different fancy terms (it's the brits you know!)

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Music_Producer
06-20-2007 01:35 AM
THIS is why I love BOE reports! They always deviate! 35 pips on MPC minutes report :D :D I exited at 1.9917 although I think it has potential to go up to 1.9950.. but then again, I didn't want to take a risk. Currenex was awesome as usual, 2 million lot - traded perfectly.. spread did increase from 2 to 5 pips but that's nothing. How did you guys do?
Music_Producer
Quote:
06-20-2007 01:37 AM
Originally Posted by Britguy (Post 3780839) Mp, What is the minimum ac size for capforex currenex? I requested a demo, but they dont give you a dealing limit to try trades, but just to look at the platform. Also, how long did it take for them to set up an ac for you?
Its 50 k for capforex britguy.. took them at least a week to set everything up.. but it took longer for me since i'm in the US.. so I had to deal with the US division.. submit documentation, etc. Since they're based in the UK, the residents there might be able to do it faster. I love you Brit bank policy makers.. always dishing out surprises :D
Music_Producer
Quote:
06-20-2007 01:45 AM
Originally Posted by Toreador93 (Post 3764519) I'd possibly be interested in a carry trade, though I might need to be clear of a few things. Wouldn't you only be making interest on the amount you control? If so, wouldn't a down market eventually take your prots, then account balance, and then give you less interest as your controlling amount goes down with the price? Or is the idea that we will have so much in our account that we can ride through these bears until they become protable again, and still accrue interest? What would assure us prot if, say the Aud/Jpy has just reached its peak as we went long, and made a long-term glide down to 90? Would we just wait it out until we were protable with up-turns or interest?
Toreador.. yes.. basically you have to prepare yourself for a massive dip.. in the event it does happen. It doesn't make sense to invest funds in a carry trade and then close the trade when it's at a huge loss. The basic logic behind the huge interest differential is what drives all the jpy pairs up.
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If AUD/JPY went to 90 for whatever reason.. I'd be looking at that as an opportunity to buy. In fact, I wish it did drop.. it just keeps going up. Last I mentioned about buying it.. it was at 101.. I bought a few lots.. exited at 102.. since I thought 'Ok, this sucker's going to fall a bit now.. this is too high' Now it's at 104.55 :rolleyes: Additionally.. I trade multiple reports.. which are protable most of the time. So whatever carry trade loss that may be pending.. gets reduced thanks to those protable trades. The interest keeps coming in.. and gets compounded all the while. Having said that, it doesn't make sense having a balance of $10,000 and investing $1000 in a carry trade (would still net you approx $200 a month) and leaving the rest in the event of a drop. It makes more sense to have a million balance.. and then investing.. say $100,000 in a carry trade.. to get you something like $20,000 a month. Again, you should be the kind to be able to *afford* to lose that million.. in the event something catastrophic happens.. like world war 3 breaking out and china nuking japan.. or australia sinking under.. you get the idea.
nhallmark
06-20-2007 01:48 AM
I held on too long...only got 8 pips. I think it would go for 100 pips like it usually does but that would mean getting close to 2.00 again.
Music_Producer
Quote:
06-20-2007 01:53 AM
Originally Posted by nhallmark (Post 3785859) I held on too long...only got 8 pips. I think it would go for 100 pips like it usually does but that would mean getting close to 2.00 again.
Yeah.. it should go back to 2.00 but it might take its own sweet time. I honestly think it should test the 1.9950 level. There's probably a lot of prot taking going on as well. I had quite a temptation to jump in at 1.9912 and buy.. but then that stresses me out (the waiting part) and then I wouldn't get sleep lol.
nhallmark
Quote:
06-20-2007 04:12 AM
Originally Posted by Music_Producer (Post 3785864) Yeah.. it should go back to 2.00 but it might take its own sweet time. I honestly think it should test the 1.9950 level. There's probably a lot of prot taking going on as well. I had quite a temptation to jump in at 1.9912 and buy.. but then that stresses me out (the waiting part) and then I wouldn't get sleep lol.
lol...yeah I hate the waiting part, but I took the plunge...Im in at 1.9912 with a smaller position. Im about to take my girlfriend to the airport so I'll check it when I get back and I set a stop loss(obviously :p ) so, worst case scenario, I will break even for the day. I'll let you know how it goes.
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nhallmark
Ok...just got back from the airport. I closed at 1.9937 for 25 pips :D
06-20-2007 06:02 AM
Britguy
Mp,
06-20-2007 07:19 AM
Yes the MPC are always surprising the mkts. Thats why trading UK annoucements has been the best this year, as they are in interest-rate mode. Mkts pricing in a July hike, so if they hold the will sell off again. I am impressed with Capforex tight spreads. What commission do they charge per round turn? I am in the UK, so you are right it will be quicker to set-up i think.
~Shard~
06-20-2007 11:47 AM
Hi guys! I've been very busy lately, not much time for trading. :( Anyway, needed sleep desperately so I didn't trade the UK data this morning but I did trade the Canadian data and made a decent 9 pips on a $200K lot. Not too shabby! :) I haven't had any time to look into things any further Music_Producer but will try to nd some time soon. I'll chat with my wife about it too. Will keep you posted... :cool:
Music_Producer
06-21-2007 05:34 AM
15 pips on USD/CAD trade.. I was really slow on this one (I hate it because it's usd/cad.. so you enter the opposite trade related to the news i.e. good news for cad.. and you sell usd/cad and vice versa) Good trade nevertheless :)
StuNew78
+25 pips on the CAD retail sale ex Autos.
06-21-2007 05:48 AM
Oanda gave me a brilliant ll today, out at the top of the spike, watched the retrace, back in at the bottom and out again for another +10. Text book day. Doesn't happen often. Music Producer, looks like Felix (who nHallmark and I trade with) may be switching to Currenex too... He's sick of the market makers. How's it been after a few weeks?
nhallmark
Good job guys!
06-21-2007 09:46 AM
I didn't even get in. I was too tired, I guess...SNW gave a buy but I forgot to set up the auto clicker and I sat there like "uh, why didnt it click the button?" :p instead of realizing it and clicking myself while I still had time. :rolleyes:
Music_Producer
06-22-2007 05:25 PM
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1/15/08 8:38 PM
Hey nathan.. gbp/usd went near 2.00 today :p I told you.. that it's gonna go.. but it'll take its time. Stupid aud/jpy.. goes up 100 pips every few days :mad: Man if that thing falls, it's gonna fall pretty hard. Remember to short the hell out of GBP/JPY if carry trades start a shock unwinding.. it may be this year, or next year.. or whenever.. the later, the better.. since the more pips we can make out of the short. Right now getting into a carry trade is way too risky. I personally think aud/jpy should hit 110 (that's another 500 pips more) but.. too risky to get into it. Global interest rates are going up (except Japan's) so I believe carry trades should be strong for 2007 for sure. Again, who knows.. it's better to be safe than sorry. Stu.. Currenex is simply a platform as I mentioned earlier. My broker. capital forex is good so far.. if they start playing tricks.. I'll let you guys know. FXCM has a currenex platform too.. but FXCM sucks.. big time. Imagine Oanda offering a currenex platform and then inating the spread to 20-30 pips.. anyone can offer the Currenex platform, it really depends on the broker.
OceanView
Hey guys, Looks like lots of new people have joined in. I have been too busy trying out a new strategy.
06-26-2007 12:16 PM
Reading all you carry trade ideas, I came up with something. What if you were to use a strategy that includes carry trades with small limits and no stops? Yes, I said no stops. Use large lot sizes and 5 to 10 pip limits. This will get you out with small prots. The key of course is to get in when the market is on the low end and wait for it to reach your limit. There are of course some rules that will be used to time the entry points. Downside is, you get in and the market changes. You get stuck in a trade for a long time. I have been using this idea on a demo account and have made a large amount in 2 weeks. Let me know what you think guys.
Music_Producer
15 pips on US Durable orders reports.. nally something worth trading after a dull period.
06-27-2007 05:35 AM
Ocean.. with small limits.. you will make prots.. but when the currencies go up.. you'll just keep waiting for dips to occur. When these dips do occur.. they're pretty much in a range from 300-2000 pips. So yes, you might get stuck during that time, but you will be making interest. All Yen pairs are currently down.. am not sure if this is an overall carry unwinding but it doesn't look like it so far.
Britguy
How did you make 15pips MP, on GBP/USD it never moved that much.
06-27-2007 05:38 AM
Music_Producer
Quote:
06-27-2007 05:41 AM
4 of 11
1/15/08 8:38 PM
Originally Posted by Britguy (Post 3823960) How did you make 15pips MP, on GBP/USD it never moved that much.
What platform are you using? I got in at 1.9975 and out at 1.9990.. it then dropped to 1.9985 (although it did hit 1.9996 for a moment) I was in and out, in not more than a second, or a second and a half. You might be looking at the spread, my spread was a pip :D
Britguy
06-27-2007 05:55 AM
I looked at the graphs on cmc marketmaker software. You could of bought at 79 (ask) and sold at 89 (bid). That was the range at announcement time. Your lls are amazing.
Music_Producer
Quote:
06-27-2007 05:59 AM
Originally Posted by Britguy (Post 3824025) I looked at the graphs on cmc marketmaker software. You could of bought at 79 (ask) and sold at 89 (bid). That was the range at announcement time. Your lls are amazing.
You're using CMC too? :p There was a trade once, I remember.. when I saw AUD/USD drop by 30 pips or so.. I had already hit the 'Sell' button. However, CMC conveniently dropped the price by only 8 pips. It then held there for a few seconds.. confusing the hell out of me. So I got out.. and then it dropped another 20 pips :rolleyes: That only happened once, but it was obviously.. a very strange thing. Read some forex forums and you'll nd that this happens quite a bit with a few brokers. Prots being limited.. or stops being blown (stop hunting) by strange 'spikes' etc.. the list goes on. It's a bloody unregulated market and that's why all the brokers can mess with us as much as they want!
~Shard~
06-27-2007 08:01 AM
Well done Music_Producer! I on the other hand got a requote from CMC this morning. :mad: Would have been a nice trade but I guess I acted too fast for them... :rolleyes:
nhallmark
06-27-2007 08:57 AM
I got a requote also :mad: And I also didn't see CMC move even 15 pips...it must be CMC :rolleyes:
~Shard~
06-27-2007 01:37 PM
Yeah, I'm extremely busy right now (not even much time for trading!) but when I get more time I think I will seriously look into alternate platforms, i.e. a Currenex account. For now though, I'll continue to have "fun" with CMC. I'll just treat it as a game. ;) :cool:
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nhallmark
06-27-2007 03:50 PM
I got another requote on NZD Current Account and I know its BS because the move was extremely slow...F$^%& CMC :mad:
Music_Producer
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06-27-2007 05:33 PM
Originally Posted by nhallmark (Post 3828018) I got another requote on NZD Current Account and I know its BS because the move was extremely slow...F$^%& CMC :mad:
I wasn't home to trade this one, and yeah.. just checked the charts.. was a nice slow move. Time to move out of cmc bro..
nhallmark
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06-27-2007 05:48 PM
Originally Posted by Music_Producer (Post 3828486) I wasn't home to trade this one, and yeah.. just checked the charts.. was a nice slow move. Time to move out of cmc bro..
Yeah, I would have already moved but Im $8k short of the minimum so hopefully CMC will let me through a few more times so I can make the rest.
nhallmark
06-28-2007 01:48 PM
Hey Music_Producer, I know you mentioned awhile back that MB has improved...and based on what I've read from felix, etc. I might go with them until I can meet the minimums for dukas/currenex. How long does it take to get your money in and out of MB? (I dont want to miss any trades) Somethings up with CMC IMO because, when you click it feels like someone is literally sitting there deciding whether to let you in or not...I dont know if thats the case but the requotes "feel" different now, if that makes any sense.
~Shard~
06-28-2007 02:04 PM
CMC pissed me off again this morning. Tried trading the initial US data and when I clicked the order just stalled, and got lled a few seconds later! Luckily I was able to still get a prot out of the deal, but come on! :mad: Requotes coupled with delayed order execution - not impressed... :rolleyes: So, $50K USD minimum for a Currenex account? And is that just the broker then? You still need to use a separate trading platform with it, or how does that work? Apologies, I'm sure it's been answered before but this thread is so dang long now... :o ;)
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What all else do I need to do to sign up? Minimum $1M lot sizes and any trading activity requirements (e.g. 10 trades a month)? And 1 pip spreads on some pairs?! Can I get an account being that I'm in Canada? Let me know and I might just have to open an account... I'll check their website too...
nhallmark
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06-28-2007 02:21 PM
Originally Posted by ~Shard~ (Post 3833852) CMC pissed me off again this morning. Tried trading the initial US data and when I clicked the order just stalled, and got lled a few seconds later! Luckily I was able to still get a prot out of the deal, but come on! :mad: Requotes coupled with delayed order execution - not impressed... :rolleyes: So, $50K USD minimum for a Currenex account? And is that just the broker then? You still need to use a separate trading platform with it, or how does that work? Apologies, I'm sure it's been answered before but this thread is so dang long now... :o ;) What all else do I need to do to sign up? Minimum $1M lot sizes and any trading activity requirements (e.g. 10 trades a month)? And 1 pip spreads on some pairs?! Can I get an account being that I'm in Canada? Let me know and I might just have to open an account... I'll check their website too...
That sucks to hear that theyre doing it to you also, Shard...although Im glad its not just me. Im pretty sure Capital Forex is based in Russia(they were bought by a russian company) which could be scary but supposedly its all legit...so I dont think you would have a problem coming from canada. Also, I think you just download their currenex platform like an MT4 broker has the MT4 platform specialized for their feeds, etc. Of course, MP knows the answer...but that seems like how it would go.
~Shard~
06-28-2007 02:52 PM
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Originally Posted by nhallmark (Post 3834005) That sucks to hear that theyre doing it to you also, Shard...although Im glad its not just me.
Yeah, I guess the three of us are all "too good" for them... ;)
Quote:
Originally Posted by nhallmark (Post 3834005) Im pretty sure Capital Forex is based in Russia(they were bought by a russian company) which could be scary but supposedly its all legit...so I dont think you would have a problem coming from canada.
Hmm, I'd need to investigate that then. DOn't like sending large amounts of money overseas... :o
Quote:
Originally Posted by nhallmark (Post 3834005) Also, I think you just download their currenex platform like an MT4 broker has the MT4 platform specialized for their feeds, etc.
This is the point I was curious about and would like clarication on. As I said, I'll do some hunting on the web as well... Thanks. :cool:
Music_Producer
06-28-2007 04:35 PM
NZ was a no - trade.. this whole week has been painfully boring - luckily there is all this iphone buzz going on to keep me sane. Shard, trade smaller lots.. just to be on the safer side. They can easily 'hold' your trade for a couple of seconds, and then let it go when they are in a protable situation. This can happen when the report doesn't deviate signicantly.. and the price only moves 6-10 pips and then retraces. Which is again.. why I only trade if the reports deviate quite a bit.. so there's a move of 30-40 pips.. and it stays there. It's better not to trade, then jump in a small deviation report trade.. because you will literally lose your money. Nathan, I know what you mean by the different 'feel' to the re-quotes. I used to get them all the time. I bloody wished they had an IM window where I could chat with the f@cker holding my trade lol. Send them an email.. if they're playing around with you.. tell them you will complain to the NFA or you will close your account. See what they say.. if they give you a generic answer (something like requotes occur during fast moving markets, etc) then you know they're going to keep doing the same thing. Also, try trading smaller lots.. temporarily.. to see if those go through. Shard.. the broker offers currenex as the platform. $50 k is the minimum to open.. and $1 m is minimum trading lot.. but it could differ.
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Nathan.. are you talking about capital forex or capital forex pro? I am with capital forex pro.. they're based in london (part of london capital group) and registered with the FSA (Financial Services Authority) I'm not at all sure if they are based in Russia.. I don't think so. Btw, I', not talking about www.capforex.com.. I'm talking about www.capitalforex.com.
Music_Producer
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06-28-2007 04:37 PM
Originally Posted by nhallmark (Post 3833714) Hey Music_Producer, I know you mentioned awhile back that MB has improved...and based on what I've read from felix, etc. I might go with them until I can meet the minimums for dukas/currenex. How long does it take to get your money in and out of MB? (I dont want to miss any trades) Somethings up with CMC IMO because, when you click it feels like someone is literally sitting there deciding whether to let you in or not...I dont know if thats the case but the requotes "feel" different now, if that makes any sense.
MB did improve.. but only for a while. As soon as I started making 2 - 3 protable trades on them.. they started slipping me big time. They lled me in either at the top or the bottom of the spike.. so after 2 trades I quit. My advice would be not to go with MB.. you could try them if you want to do limit orders though (not market orders)
~Shard~
06-28-2007 04:54 PM
Thanks for the advice Music_Producer, I'll give that all a try. Also, what is the NFA? Is that an American body or would that threat work here in Canada too? ;) I should look into regulations and so forth just to see...
nhallmark
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06-28-2007 05:40 PM
Originally Posted by Music_Producer (Post 3834862) MB did improve.. but only for a while. As soon as I started making 2 - 3 protable trades on them.. they started slipping me big time. They lled me in either at the top or the bottom of the spike.. so after 2 trades I quit. My advice would be not to go with MB.. you could try them if you want to do limit orders though (not market orders)
Wow....I was monitoring their spreads during NZD today and getting all excited but if theyre slipping you, thats no better than a 20 pip spread :rolleyes: On the other hand, all I need is 2-3 good trades and I'll be able to get into dukascopy.
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What would be the benet of limit orders? I watched a video that felix had on how to use them with mb. It seems like the only advantage is you get lled within a range but if its out of that range...its basically a requote. Im sure I'll nd an answer. Oh...I got confused about capital forex(pro)...I was thinking of PFG Forex so disregard what I said ;) Shard, the NFA is the National Futures Association...I dont know if theyre in canada though.
~Shard~
Ah, okay thanks - like I said, I'll look into it for fun myself...
06-28-2007 08:41 PM
nhallmark
I got another requote on CAD GDP....goodbye CMC ;) Im pulling my money out today. I'd rather not trade than deal with their sh$# anymore.
06-29-2007 05:35 AM
Music_Producer
06-29-2007 05:35 AM
14 pips on Canadian GDP report.. I got in a bit slow and then the price stalled.. so I was out. And then the damn thing went up again (EUR/CAD) ugh.. missed 20 more pips or so.
Music_Producer
Quote:
06-29-2007 05:38 AM
Originally Posted by nhallmark (Post 3838113) I got another requote on CAD GDP....goodbye CMC ;) Im pulling my money out today. I'd rather not trade than deal with their sh$# anymore.
Again? That's how many times in a row.. sheesh. It's better to put your money in a money market account.. at least it'll be earning 5-6% while you're sleeping :p
nhallmark
I hear ya....I got my money out of CMC and into MB so we'll see how they go next week.
06-29-2007 12:46 PM
Oh yeah...Im typing this while Im on line for an iphone at the oaks mall in thousand oaks. Im tapping wi from the apple store but its barely picking it up because Im around the corner from the store :p
Music_Producer
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06-29-2007 05:02 PM
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Originally Posted by nhallmark (Post 3841209) I hear ya....I got my money out of CMC and into MB so we'll see how they go next week. Oh yeah...Im typing this while Im on line for an iphone at the oaks mall in thousand oaks. Im tapping wi from the apple store but its barely picking it up because Im around the corner from the store :p
Lol, I had a feeling you'd be waiting in line.. hopefully at the store here there will be nobody. :p Someone's been trying to hack into my account all day today.. I nally got in. Is it you SEE EM SEE? ;) Btw, I spoke to their dealing desk today.. and its conrmed, they put me on manual execution for all trades.. so the same probably applies to you. I tried trading gbp/usd during non-news time, no volatility or anything.. it took 10 seconds for the trade to go through.. and then another 10 seconds to close the trade. :rolleyes:
nhallmark
06-29-2007 08:01 PM
damn, man...Im glad I got my money out then. I was reading about one guy who recently opened an account with CMC and trades were being made that he didnt make supposedly and CMC "stole" a few grand from him. He also said he had been trading for 15 years prior to this. Hopefully MB will be better or at least until I can get enough to move up to the "big leagues" Anyway, Im back at the house now...got my iphone. This thing kicks a$$. I didnt really expect it to work as smooth as the videos but it does... I love it :D :D :D :D

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nhallmark
did any of you get an iphone yet? I'm typing this on mine right now...this thing kicks @ss!!!!
06-30-2007 01:58 PM
Anyway, I'm learning MB's platform over the weekend so I will be ready to go on Monday ...I'll let you guys know how they work out this week....I think I already said that, I just needed an excuse to post from my iPhone :p
Music_Producer
Quote:
06-30-2007 09:22 PM
Originally Posted by nhallmark (Post 3849490) did any of you get an iphone yet? I'm typing this on mine right now...this thing kicks @ss!!!! Anyway, I'm learning MB's platform over the weekend so I will be ready to go on Monday ...I'll let you guys know how they work out this week....I think I already said that, I just needed an excuse to post from my iPhone :p
I just tried it out at an AT&T store today.. damn.. I have to get it. They were all out of stock, told me to come in 2-3 days. I want to wait for the 3G version.. but I tried out EDGE and it was pretty reasonable.. ironically, apple.com took the longest time to load :p It worked awlessly.. very, very impressed. I like it even more than my macbook pro! :eek:
nhallmark
06-30-2007 09:54 PM
Well, supposedly AT&T sold out at almost all of their stores but people have been saying that you can walk into an Apple store now and pick one up with no line or anything. They've got a page set up to check availability at each store here... http://www.apple.com/retail/iphone/ But yeah, at the apple store you get a cool bag to carry it in and they all clap for you when you're walking out :p (probably not now but at the initial launch they did)
OceanView
Hi Nathan, How do you like your iPhone so far? Please give us your review.
07-02-2007 09:43 AM
I went to the Apple store on Saturday to take a look at the iPhone. Played with the functions but the unit that
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I was using did have some glitches so I decided to not buy it. I think the concept is great, but I think there are still a few things that need to be ironed out. Will wait till the next generation before I buy one.
nhallmark
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07-02-2007 11:46 AM
Originally Posted by OceanView (Post 3859208) Hi Nathan, How do you like your iPhone so far? Please give us your review. I went to the Apple store on Saturday to take a look at the iPhone. Played with the functions but the unit that I was using did have some glitches so I decided to not buy it. I think the concept is great, but I think there are still a few things that need to be ironed out. Will wait till the next generation before I buy one.
What type of glitches are you talking about? There are some things that annoy me...for example...you cant switch to landscape mode in safari when you have the keyboard pulled up. You have to do it before you pull up the keyboard. Also, with the "switches" like airplane mode, it looks like you slide to turn it on/off but you actually have to press the area next to it. That's about it...I haven't noticed any glitches(glitches meaning software not working properly). I really couldnt be happier with it. After having a razr, the iphone seems clunky when youre talking on the phone but its way better than a treo or blackberry or a Q which is wider. ...and thats only because I have small hands. So, really, I love it...I've only had it since friday and already it feels like an extension of myself, because its so intuitive. Uh, I guess that's it. I give it an 11 :D
StuNew78
Nhallmark, what is your SFS name in the diamonds room?
07-02-2007 10:23 PM
I missed the AUD/USD trade this morning, I heard it was a winner, and probably the rst one for nearly 2 weeks... :p
Music_Producer
07-03-2007 04:00 AM
I missed out on the aussie trade today.. and that would have been a good trade. Went for a movie marathon - saw ratatouille and die hard. Btw, currenex now shows up on safari :) I think it must have been either the safari update or the new java update (a couple of weeks ago) Probably the java one.. so I don't have to use my retarded pc anymore. Finally!
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Britguy
I too got requoted on aus retail gs at cmc. I hope the news later in the week is better. I will give them another week or two, and then look elsewhere if i still get requotes.
07-03-2007 11:00 AM
nhallmark
StuNew, Im not in the forexdiamonds room. I just have SNW. MB wouldn't ll me on AUD retail sales or CHF CPI last night...using limit orders of course.
07-03-2007 12:34 PM
BritGuy, how long have you been with CMC? I was debating about going back and using my girlfriends name for awhile until they start playing games again but I guess I wont do that if theyre messing with you right off the bat. Im down to the wire here...Ive got no way to make enough for the minimums of dukascopy or currenex...I might have to give up trading :p Any suggestions on retail brokers?
Music_Producer
Quote:
07-03-2007 01:51 PM
Originally Posted by nhallmark (Post 3866604) StuNew, Im not in the forexdiamonds room. I just have SNW. MB wouldn't ll me on AUD retail sales or CHF CPI last night...using limit orders of course. Any suggestions on retail brokers?
Nathan, try opening with your girlfriend's name like you mentioned.. but with a different address if possible. I'm pretty sure if you open with your address.. they will block it. Didn't you just move to LA? Can't you open with that address? With MB.. was your limit a few pips away from the market price.. I am guessing it was. I would keep a 10 pip range. Don't give up.. I've had a couple of dry spells lasting weeks where I couldn't trade anything. Keep at it!
nhallmark
07-03-2007 02:01 PM
I had my limits set at 10-15 pips(not exact) which is why I am really confused about how I didn't get lled. Anyway, I guess all I can do is keep trying. I've got one of my friends that might give me some money to meet the minimum. If that falls through, I guess I will try CMC again. Thanks for the encouragement, though :)
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Britguy
07-03-2007 02:01 PM
I wouldnt bother i am using my girlfriends ac too. New Ac, but had a few requotes, but dont know if this is down to june being a poor month and that the only new trading opps have mostly been in aus/nz/cad currencies which dont have the best liquidity. I am in the same position, I dont have enough for currenex. I have read dukascopy isnt good for news either.
Music_Producer
07-03-2007 06:33 PM
14 pips on aussie trade.. the move was good, but not great. I think it might go higher up in a few hours.. who knows.
nhallmark
07-03-2007 06:44 PM
I f$&@king hate MB!!! i saw my order go in BEFORE it got to my limit and they still didnt execute it :mad: Luckily,one of my friends is giving me the money for dukascopy. Britguy, where did you here they suck for news? Everything I have read suggests that they are as good as currenex and better in some cases.
StuNew78
Quote:
07-03-2007 10:53 PM
Originally Posted by nhallmark (Post 3868630) I f$&@king hate MB!!! i saw my order go in BEFORE it got to my limit and they still didnt execute it :mad: Luckily,one of my friends is giving me the money for dukascopy. Britguy, where did you here they suck for news? Everything I have read suggests that they are as good as currenex and better in some cases.
nhalmark, I've also heard Dukascopy are not good for News lls. I started using MB trading this week, I missed a ll on the AUD trade balance report this morning... so still too early to tell. MB Trading is known to put orders on queue to match up with bank offers on the otherside. The word in my trading room, (and about 50 traders are with MB) is to never use market orders with them, only limit orders. Slippage on market orders can be huge, limit orders may not always ll in, but theywon't ll in if the price has slipped past your limit order... hope that make sense :rolleyes:
Britguy
07-04-2007 02:06 AM
I have used a demo from Dukas, and never got good execution at newstime, so i dont think they are as good as currenex in that respect. You have to get notary to validate a copy of your passport, to open an ac, which is a hassle too.
nhallmark
07-04-2007 09:57 AM
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Thanks, Britguy. I used their demo on a NZD report around the end of may(dont remember which one) and I got in ne although the spread was bouncing between 3-6. That's still better than a requote though ;) I've already got my ID notarized and sent to them so that part is no problem. I guess Im just going to see for myself because Im running out of options here.
Music_Producer
07-05-2007 07:05 AM
18 pips on the US ISM report.. I didn't trade the UK and Eur interest rate decisions, but watched the spreads. Spread on gbp/usd widened to about 7 pips.. and eur/usd stayed at 2 pips. Not bad at all.. I expected spreads to widen during interest rate announcements. Nathan, it's worth trying out dukas.. start off with a not too signicant news report.. see if your trades go through ne.
Britguy
How many standard lots are you trading MP on currenex?
07-05-2007 07:17 AM
Britguy
Requote on CMC for both UK and CAD releases. Next stop CNX.
07-06-2007 04:21 AM
mekis
hi nevermind - found the answer to my question
07-06-2007 01:06 PM
sjshaw
07-09-2007 04:58 PM
Geez... I found this thread and am reading the whole thing from start to end. I'm on page 6 of 45. I should be ready to start trading in 2009 or so. :) I wish there was a way to print the whole thread at once. It would be a novel, but an informative one.
Toreador93
Quote:
07-09-2007 06:22 PM
Originally Posted by sjshaw (Post 3897232) Geez... I found this thread and am reading the whole thing from start to end. I'm on page 6 of 45. I should be ready to start trading in 2009 or so. :) I wish there was a way to print the whole thread at once. It would be a novel, but an informative one.
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I know how you feel, it took me quite a few hours to catch up when I started reading it. I've been trying to save this thread, and the best way I found is to go to the Print Friendly version, click "Show 40 posts from this thread on one page, select the rst text and drag down to the last, and copy/paste. It doesn't take more than maybe 15 seconds a page. [Edit] Actually, I just nished copying the thread up to the 44th page. If you want, you can PM me your email address, and I'll send it to you. As a .doc le, it's 6.37mb (and 543 pages at 10 font, with tables).
Music_Producer
Quote:
07-09-2007 10:15 PM
Originally Posted by Britguy (Post 3876324) How many standard lots are you trading MP on currenex?
Britguy, I trade anywhere from 1 million to 5 million units.. depending on the report involved. I didn't trade the NFP.. I usually never do, since it has a tendency to be extremely volatile and the spreads go crazy. I'll be trading the UK trade balance today, although i doubt it will cause a signicant move. Nathan, did you open your dukas account yet?
Music_Producer
07-10-2007 01:35 AM
23 pips on the UK trade balance report.. I traded twice on this one.. the rst time i bought and sold.. then it dipped.. so i entered again. Wasn't a big deviation, but fairly enough to make it move more than 10 pips or so. I won't be trading the canadian interest rate decision itself, as that has been priced in (rate hike expected) Of course if they don't hike the rate.. then i'l buy usd/cad. I'll watch out for the statement accompanying the rate and trade that accordingly.
~Shard~
07-10-2007 09:17 AM
Hi guys, I've been away for a while biut thought I'd check back in. Haven't been trading at all these past couple weeks as I've been away on a shing trip and have been busy with other things as well. Glad to see everyone's still trading and learning and all that good stuff. ;) I'll get back into trading this week and will post my results... Take care... :cool:
Music_Producer
07-10-2007 02:51 PM
Shard, check out the JPY pairs.. USD/JPY lost about 200 pips today.. and I jumped in (on CMC.. hehe, time to take my revenge on them) Shorted USD/JPY at 121.65.. sucker went to 121.35 and I got out. I think it may still go down more.. all jpy pairs are being hammered.. and for vague reasons. I don't know.. I have a funny feeling that it's either: 1. They have some inside information that Japan is going to hike rates or..
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2. Japan is going to leave rates as they are.. and they are just getting ready for some massive prot taking by driving jpy pairs down.. and then buying them up at a good price.
Music_Producer
07-10-2007 03:41 PM
I'm practically having a massively enjoyable session.. I was watching gbp/jpy and usd/jpy.. usd/jpy hit 121 and then stayed there. GBP/JPY was stuck at 245.08. All of a sudden, both started jumping.. 5 pips, then 10.. then 20.. then 30. So makes me wonder if this so called 'drop' was all manipulated so that everyone could get in at a lower price ;) I stayed out though.. but after GBP/JPY hit 245.60 in a few seconds, I jumped in and bought a huge lot.. and exited at 245.93 :D When these suckers move, they MOVE!
~Shard~
07-10-2007 03:41 PM
Great, thanks for the head's up Music_Producer. :) As you say, either this is only the tip of the iceberg and someone knows something, or the carry remains (inexplicably) strong and this is simply an artical pullback before even more carry trades pile on. :rolleyes: ;) Regardless, great job on your CMC revenge trade :D and I might just have to do likewise if things continue... The rate announcement isn't until tomorrow night though I believe... Thanks again! :cool:
Music_Producer
07-10-2007 03:47 PM
Yup, I think it's ust a buying setup.. I have seen this happen a few times. All jpy pairs fall 200-400 pips.. and then come back up almost in one day! GBP/JPY is at 246.15 now.. so it jumped more than 100 pips in literally a few minutes. I also had a feeling that 121.00 would be a good support level for USD/JPY and it would bounce back to maybe 10 or 20 pips.. but gbp/jpy is a different beast.. it can totally make or break your trade.
Music_Producer
07-10-2007 04:00 PM
Tons of bad news regarding the US Economy.. the S&P is downgrading $12 billion worth of subprime mortgage bonds.. and then the us treasury notes fell quite a bit in value.. so.. basically the $ looks pretty weak unless the Fed chief idiot raises the rates (again, he should.. but if he does, the housing industry gets screwed more, in my opinion though, i don't care about that effect) I've been eyeing USD/CAD.. it's gone up quite a bit.. but I'll wait until CAD/JPY settles down.
Music_Producer
07-11-2007 06:41 PM
18 pips on aussie unemployment report.. and the unemployment report also went up to 4.3%
Music_Producer
07-12-2007 12:08 AM
Whatever you do, do NOT open an account with CMC Markets, or if you have one open.. get your money out and close it. I was trading the JPY pairs today.. no-news trades.. and I would short the pairs..
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My prot was at $350 for an open trade.. so i closed it.. it took ten seconds to close.. and the prot still showed $350.. and then it closed.. and prot? $0! :mad::mad::mad: This happened a couple of times, every protable trade i closed.. reverted back to zero prots. WTF??? Re-quotes is one thing, but cancelling your prots is a sorry ass way of dealing. Bunch of losers
Britguy
MP,
07-12-2007 03:10 AM
Did u contact CMC and ask why they cancelled you're $350 trade? I do think CMC reputation has been suffering. I am getting a lot more requotes than say 2 months ago, even though i'm not on manual execution. At least currenex is working for you.
Music_Producer
Quote:
07-12-2007 04:25 AM
Originally Posted by Britguy (Post 3908396) MP, Did u contact CMC and ask why they cancelled you're $350 trade? I do think CMC reputation has been suffering. I am getting a lot more requotes than say 2 months ago, even though i'm not on manual execution. At least currenex is working for you.
I did, and they replied back with the usual canned answer stating that the currency moved when i clicked to close my position.. slimy liars.. the pair stayed at the same level for more than a minute after i closed my position. I wish I had video taped it. Yes, currenex is working great.. and so have my jpy pairs trades (I'm also trading them on mb trading) Basically everytime there is a huge sell off in jpy pairs.. look for buying opportunities, they eventually come back up.
Britguy
07-12-2007 05:10 AM
Yes, whats annoying is you nd an edge in the markets, and rms like cmc do every trick in the book to stop you winning. It isnt until you start winning, that you realise what a crooked game you are playing. I presume on the JPY trade you were only after a few pips <10 and they took back from you.
~Shard~
07-12-2007 05:36 AM
That's horrible Music_Producer. :( I've been more and more frustrated with MC as of late myself - it seems like when I'm waiting for the news and then I get the report, the pair (at least as CMC represents it) doesn't move at all, even when I think there should be movement - it's like they're "stalling" it - at least to me. :o ;) This might not be the case, but still, once I have some more time I am denitely going to look into alternatives. Anywho, no trade just now. CMC didn't move at all, but it didn't appear as there was much variance to the US data either, so fair enough...
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1/15/08 8:38 PM
Music_Producer
07-12-2007 05:52 AM
I've seen that happen too Shard.. the price remains the same.. i.e. until you get in or out.. sometimes I've even seen it move the opposite direction (I have a oanda window open at the same time.. the oanda chart goes up.. and the cmc price goes down) Absolutely ludicrous that a rm that has so many branches worldwide can pull tricks like these. Britguy, yup.. I was just trying out a few 'logical' trades with the jpy pairs.. not after a lot of pips at all. In fact, about 10 minutes before the US trade balance, I shorted the USD/CAD since the canadian trade balance was coming out.. and I thought that the USD/CAD had been overbought. Kept my ngers crossed.. and as the news came out.. usd/cad went down by 12 pips or so.. and i made my prot. I have been trading since the last few days based on pure logic.. things happen when the london markets open.. new york opens and so on. For instance right now, gbp/usd has fallen by more than 30 pips since the US markets opened. So I was using the cmc platform to try out my non-news trades.. but they've started messing around with those as well.
Britguy
07-12-2007 08:29 AM
I agree with your point on the Yen pairs - buy dips. Would you consider the same with the US stock market. Sell Dow around the 13700 mark for a couple of hundred points prot? NZ - retail gs tonight. I am looking forward to this trade as its a pre-cursor to the interest rate story in late July. So much worse gs NZD/USD will be hammered, whereas much better gs may make a July hike likely.
Music_Producer
07-12-2007 03:50 PM
Nice, solid trade - a hefty 26 pips on the nzd report. On my mb account, I had also bought a few lots of nzd/usd this morning.. had a feeling it would go up. Maybe I should trade with my gut feeling now .. it's becoming more reliable these days :p

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1/15/08 8:38 PM

Music_Producer
Quote:
07-12-2007 03:55 PM
Originally Posted by Britguy (Post 3909375) I agree with your point on the Yen pairs - buy dips. Would you consider the same with the US stock market. Sell Dow around the 13700 mark for a couple of hundred points prot? NZ - retail gs tonight. I am looking forward to this trade as its a pre-cursor to the interest rate story in late July. So much worse gs NZD/USD will be hammered, whereas much better gs may make a July hike likely.
I am not absolutely sure of the stock market at all.. since I don't trade that.. but yes, the same principle should apply. The Dow is also susceptible to earnings report and all that, so be careful. At least with the JPY pairs, you know that there is a basic trend - upwards - due to the carry trade.. and hence it's a lot more comfortable to buy on dips. But with any massive sell-off.. a correction is bound to happen.. so yeah, you could do that with the Dow as well. I just don't trust stocks lol
Britguy
07-13-2007 01:51 AM
Requoted for CMC - Quelle surprise, for NZ retail sales. I am not on manual execution, but i believe an account exec has gone over my protable trades and reduced the amount i can trade on each instrument now. So where once i could get $70 a point, now it is $10. Which autoclick service do you use, MP? I spoke to capforex, they said the leverage is 50:1. But i suppose its better to get lled on low leverage than not at all.
StuNew78
Hey all,
07-13-2007 02:52 AM
I blew my account up this week and have been in denial ever since. I bet against the EUR/USD on last fridays NFP. I saw 10% equity prot, then it retraced past my entry. I told myself, 'It's going to go down again.' So still holding onto my position, I almost got out at break even on Tuesday, then the EUR made the biggest jump in years in one day and my over-leveraged position destroyed my account at -150pips. Very expensive lesson. And my condence is rocked. I'm going to get out of my trading room and subscribe to TTN. I need to learn exactly why the market does what it does on raw data. Not by just following someone else. It's unconcious trading what I'm currently doing.
1 of 12
1/15/08 8:39 PM
Best of luck to you all, I'll be trading on demo for a while, so if I have a big win, it's not real :rolleyes:
Music_Producer
07-13-2007 04:36 AM
Britguy, I don't use auto click services.. I don't trust any third party applications that can control my trading - I am actually faster trading myself than depending on software. I guess I have just traded so much, that I am used to it. Stu.. sorry to hear about that loss, I've blown up my account as well (when I rst started a few years ago) First lesson: NEVER take any advice from anyone on a forum, or subscribe to any signal software. You have to ask YOURSELF, why you think a currency pair is going to go up or down. The NFP didn't deviate much.. so EUR/USD had no business going down.. especially when you take into account all the bad news hogging the US economy (subprime defaults especially) Just when you think a currency pair can't go any higher.. any bank can step in.. any news can make the situation worse.. and it will shoot up before you can blink. ALWAYS employ a stop loss, if you're going to be trading based on technicals, or any fundamental strategy. I shorted USD/CAD before the US and Canadian trade balance.. because I assumed that the US trade balance wouldn't be great ... and the canadian would probably come out better. Also aiding this decision was the fact that USD/CAD had gone up by more than 120-150 pips since the last few days.. so i thought it was ready for a drop. It did drop .. I got out with a prot.. but eventually, it dropped by 80 more pips. Why? Couple of news canadian ination is still high.. and the price of oil shot up yesterday.. so CAD went up massively. Everytime oil goes up - CAD goes up, USD goes down, gold goes up and JPY goes down. I am beginning to see the broader picture of trading forex.. and it's much better than trading news.. when you trade on common sense, read the news regarding a currency pair, interest rates, etc. Keep the Oanda news window open.. I think last night they had a report that stated 'Rumors of big banks selling the pound' and surely enough.. 15 minutes later the pound dropped 40-50 pips. Don't just trade blindly, or go on what some trader says their Harry Potter indicator predicts on where a currency will go. I kept thinking to myself - how the bloody hell does George Soros have such successful trades? He's been short on the US$ since the beginning of 2007! Now that's a long term trade - and obviously he's enjoying his prots right now. He has had his losses too - everyone makes a loss, so don't let that deter you.
Music_Producer
07-13-2007 04:51 AM
Take a look at gbp/usd.. almost 40 minutes to go before the US retail sales.. and it's at 2.0326. I was hoping for it to stay at 2.0295 or so.. I would have gone long.. because I have a feeling US retail sales are not going to be so great. Anyway, if the US sales come out better than expected.. then I'll be buying gbp/usd after it falls (i will trade the news rst as well) I'll be buying a very small lot since i am still testing out my non-news trades. If the US sales come out weak.. then be careful. The gbp/usd will go up.. but there might be a lot of resistance. It might tempt banks to go short to book prots.. and then buy it again later on during the day. Good luck!
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Music_Producer
07-13-2007 05:42 AM
Hey, I was right :p US retail sales came out worse than expected.. bagged 30 pips on this one.. nice trade.. can't believe GBP is still going up. It can reach 2.0400, but I predict a fall.. for some prot taking.. and then it might go back up.
Britguy
MP, How can you analyse buy/sell news releases before an autoclick software can? No lls on us retail gs, will have to open up a cnx ac now. Gone short GBp/USD at 203.6, with a tight stop.
07-13-2007 05:45 AM
Music_Producer
Quote:
07-13-2007 05:49 AM
Originally Posted by Britguy (Post 3913387) MP, How can you analyse buy/sell news releases before an autoclick software can? No lls on us retail gs, will have to open up a cnx ac now. Gone short GBp/USD at 203.6, with a tight stop.
I frankly don't know.. I just attribute it to my years in medical school and all the bloody exams.. lol, I just think really quick in these kind of situations. I did try an autoclick (SNW) software once, I didn't like it. I was faster, and one time the software made an error.. gave a trade in the opposite direction.. which completely made me think why the hell people pay for these services. Pound just dropped from 2.0360 to 2.0335.. I really want it to go to 2.0950 or somewhere there.. I'll be buying when it drops below the 2.0300 mark.. because it's bound to go back up later during the day. Hurry up and short the pound you big banks! :D
Britguy
So what news service do you have which gives the news fast?
07-13-2007 05:52 AM
Music_Producer
07-13-2007 06:16 AM
3 of 12
1/15/08 8:39 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Britguy (Post 3913411) So what news service do you have which gives the news fast?
I'm using Reuters right now, I was using Trade the news for the longest time.. reuters.. well it's maybe a second or two earlier. I am not sure how much faster bloomberg is. Honestly, it's easier trading after the news report, as I am nding out. When the currency pair hits a high.. short it.. it eventually retraces a bit.. and vice versa (exceptions are jpy pairs of course)
Britguy
07-13-2007 06:31 AM
I wouldnt be able to digest the news quick enough to trade like you, looks like a bout of prot-taking on JPY pairs. Be topping up next week.
Music_Producer
Quote:
07-13-2007 06:34 AM
Originally Posted by Britguy (Post 3913524) I wouldnt be able to digest the news quick enough to trade like you, looks like a bout of prot-taking on JPY pairs. Be topping up next week.
You can, just practice on a demo account.. and I mean practice every report possible. Alternatively, like i mentioned before.. you could just trade post-spike. Yeah, i noticed the jpy pairs too.. if only we could work at these banks carrying out all these trades..
Britguy
07-13-2007 06:40 AM
So, on a post-spike trade what do you do if it makes a new high/low? Do you look for a deviation in the past and compare the result against it. EG 0.5 deviation on Us retail moves the price 30pips, so therefore you fade when the +30pips has completed?
~Shard~
07-13-2007 06:47 AM
CMC re-quote on US data this morning. :rolleyes: Like I said, when I get more time I'm going to look into other options. For now, I'll stick it out I guess, although it's frustrating when I know I could be making more money than I am, by no fault of my own...
Britguy
Shard, what was the last news release that CMC lled you on? I think mine was US retail gs last month.
07-13-2007 06:54 AM
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Music_Producer
Quote:
07-13-2007 07:06 AM
Originally Posted by Britguy (Post 3913551) So, on a post-spike trade what do you do if it makes a new high/low? Do you look for a deviation in the past and compare the result against it. EG 0.5 deviation on Us retail moves the price 30pips, so therefore you fade when the +30pips has completed?
I don't look at the deviations in the past.. I usually have an idea of how much a report tends to move currencies.. of course, anything to do with interest rates will move them 80-100 pips.. I look at how the pair has moved since the previous day.. and trade accordingly. It's a whole bunch of analyses really. I just checked - the jpy pairs dropped because Iran wants payment from japan (for oil) in Yen, not USD.. so the yen strengthened. Typical news related move.
~Shard~
Quote:
07-13-2007 07:48 AM
Originally Posted by Britguy (Post 3913594) Shard, what was the last news release that CMC lled you on? I think mine was US retail gs last month.
Good question, tough to say since I haven't been actively trading this past month. I'll have to check my records and see. I think I might just phone them and see what excuses they come up with.... ;) :D
Music_Producer
07-17-2007 02:01 AM
One of the best trades I've made in a while.. I actually held on to this for a good 20 minutes - all cpi numbers came out more than expected..and the move was nice and sweet.. bagged 50 pips. I think the pound could crack the 2.050 level.. Bernanke's probably sweating right now lol :D
Britguy
Good result MP. Still going well at Capforex?
07-17-2007 02:20 AM
mikler1
Hi, Music Producer, Shard and everyone else..... Hi, Music Producer and others...
07-17-2007 03:07 AM
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Greetings from London! Firstly, can I say thanks - I have been following this thread for the past few weeks - yes - I have read it all! :-) It is fascinating to read. And I greatly appreciate the openness and generosity of comments.... >>One of the best trades I've made in a while.. I actually held on to this for a good 20 minutes - all cpi numbers came out more than expected..and the move was nice and sweet.. bagged 50 pips. I am puzzled - the gures were lower than expected, yet the GPB went up? Was this because it was higher than expected (and therefore interest rates are still likely to go up?) Have I nally 'got it'? Also, MP, you mention that you are no longer using tradethenews - instead you are using Reuters News why s that? which reuters service are you using? Also, there was mention once on something on .mac? What was that? Well done re todays 50 pips! - Brilliant! Thanks very much!
Music_Producer
07-17-2007 03:15 AM
Britguy, i traded this one on mb trading.. i couldn't log into currenex for some reason.. maybe they don't want me anymore :confused: I traded *after* the intial spike on mb.. that's the best way to get in. There was a spike, and then gbp/usd retraced (not all the way, but quite a bit) I was going to exit after 10-12 pips.. but the pair just kept going up and up.. I was ready to look for any resistance at 2.0400 but it just shot up to 2.0406 and higher. mikler.. the gures were higher than expected. The CPI y/y forecast was 2.3%.. and it came out at 2.4%. Also, core cpi was forecast at 1.9% and it came out at 2%.. so they both came out higher than expected. Hence, the pound went up. Looks like it just broke the 2.0450 barrier.. this is crazy.. don't you brits have anything better to do than buy pounds on a mad scale? :p
mikler1
>>don't you brits have anything better to do than buy pounds on a mad scale? Anything to keep you guys out of bed!!! :-) >>I traded *after* the intial spike on mb.. that's the best way to get in. Can you explain that a bit? Or are you referring to mb?
07-17-2007 03:36 AM
>>mikler.. the gures were higher than expected. The CPI y/y forecast was 2.3%.. and it came out at 2.4%. Also, core cpi was forecast at 1.9% and it came out at 2%.. so they both came out higher than expected. Hence, the pound went up. Thanks for explaining. Can you clarify which Reuters news service you are using? Thanks Mik
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~Shard~
07-17-2007 07:47 AM
Was there a trade on any of the US data this morning? :confused: I was waiting, all ready to trade, but CMC didn't move hardly at all. Not sure if I'm paranoid now about their "practices" or if there was legitimately no trade. :o ;) Ah well, there will always be another.... P.S. Music_Producer, I sent you an e-mail, just fyi, not sure how often you check... ;) :)
Britguy
Anyone get lled on CAD CPI?
07-18-2007 04:53 AM
KevAllen83
Quote:
07-18-2007 07:28 AM
Originally Posted by Britguy (Post 3932899) Anyone get lled on CAD CPI?
Or the US CPI news for that matter? I'm slowly but surely making my way through babypips.com, and had a try with an Oanda game account, and of course traded in the wrong direction.:rolleyes: Maybe if I could use USD/GBP on Oanda, I would have done it correctly. Oh well!
Music_Producer
07-18-2007 09:18 PM
Kev.. how did you trade in the opposite direction? The US CPI came out just a bit higher than expected.. so I saw the gbp/usd dip to about 2.0465 (took its time) I didn't wake up in time to trade the canadian cpi.. that looked like it could have been a good trade. I traded the Bernanke speech next.. he's known to be a wuss and basically everytime he talks, the $ goes down. Anyway, as soon as i noticed that he stated that the US GDP will be worse than expected and that rates would be cut.. more likely in 2008.. I bought the gbp/usd .. and it started going up. I got out after netting 15 pips.. and this always happens. Every time I stay in a trade.. the price will move up slowly.. soon as I exit.. it will jump up lol. So yeah.. it eventually went up 40-50 pips more.. let's see what the brit retail sales bring tonight.
Britguy
Mp,
07-19-2007 01:16 AM
How much does your reuters/bloomberg service cost a month? How much quicker is it than the autoclick progs on the market on average? Britguy
Music_Producer
Quote:
07-19-2007 01:52 AM
7 of 12
1/15/08 8:39 PM
Originally Posted by Britguy (Post 3936660) Mp, How much does your reuters/bloomberg service cost a month? How much quicker is it than the autoclick progs on the market on average? Britguy
Britguy, reuters is 750 (plus taxes, etc) .. bloomberg is way more expensive. I can't compare it to any autoclick programs because I don't use those, but it is denitely faster than Trade the news. However, it works out to the same execution speed as with TTN and a market maker like CMC.. because Currenex is faster as well. Additionally, I am using limit orders.. so sometimes a trade doesn't get executed (if I'm slow by even a few milliseconds) Like today, I didn't get executed right away.. so I waited for the retrace, and hit 'sell' again.. bagged about 18 pips. I have been noticing that it's much easier to trade the retracement, rather than try and get into the initial spike. Of course, if it's a report like an unexpected interest rate/hike then trade away.. don't look for any retracements, because there won't be any!
Britguy
Mp,
07-19-2007 02:01 AM
But what your saying with reuteurs is that you have enough time to see the release, hit buy or sell based on those numbers, all before the spike? What do you base your retracement entry on - 50% of spike, or a basing pattern. $750 isnt bad if it gives u an edge. I always thought you used mkt orders on cnx?
~Shard~
Urgh, no trade again this morning - pairs just didn't move much. Ah well...
07-19-2007 06:08 AM
KevAllen83
Shard and M_P...
07-19-2007 11:50 AM
You may have already answered this question in one of the pages way back when, but how did the two of you get started in to Forex? I honestly stumbled upon Forex maybe about a month ago or so (this thread), and it's unbelievable how much you need to know - how to read graphs, which broker to use (personal pref. obviously), news sources, knowing the historical limits of Dollars, Pounds, Euros, etc... Did the both of you start off doing the short-term spike trading, or were you more of long-term traders and moved to short-term...? Thanks guys. Attempting to break my brain in to learning this stuff, but currently just breaking my brain!
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Music_Producer
07-20-2007 03:23 AM
Britguy, I do use mkt orders on currenex.. but mostly on retracing.. so chance of slippage is nil. Here's how I traded the UK GDP report today. Btw.. the time difference between the spike on currenex and the reuters report is very negligible, you have to be really quick to enter. Now if you used reuters with a retail bucketshop broker, you'll have ample time to get in before the spike.. but you'll obviously be met with a re-quote. Anyway.. I didn't trade the spike today, I traded the retracing. I saw the gdp come out higher than expected.. as usual.. gbp/usd spiked up.. it went up to 2.0526 and then started dropping. I knew the numbers were good.. I usually wait for a fall of 10-15 pips before getting in. It started falling to 2.0513.. and then went to 2.0511.. and that's when I hit 'buy'. Since this was a post-spike trade, my market order went through right away. It dipped further to 2.0507, but after a few minutes went back up.. eventually it went up to 2.0528 and I exited. So I netted 21 pips *after* the spike. I was also ready to place a massive sell order if it hit 2.0550.. since it's a pretty important psychological barrier for the pound. If it did hit 2.0550, it would stay for a bit, come down to maybe 2.0540 (10 pip prot) maybe even lower.. hang around.. and then try to go back up. So there are a lot of ways to trade than just the spike. Trading post spike, again, does not apply to interest rate reports, or currencies like nzd/usd (I've hardly ever seen any retracing on those) GBP/USD - I see retracing all the time. Kev - I got into forex after reading about George Soros.. lol. The rst time I got in, I was trading blindly and promptly lost my $3000 deposit. I made the mistake of opening a live account right away, instead of practicing on a demo. After playing on a demo for a few months, I nally started trading sensibly. I prefer short term trades - long term - who knows what can happen. For instance, right now I know that good long term bets are - GBP/USD, AUD/JPY, GBP/JPY, NZD/USD and AUD/USD. All these should go up.. but I don't have the patience nor the stomach to go through all the ups and downs. Take the pound for example - UK economy is looking good, ination is high, so they will raise interest rates, US economy is struggling, etc.. all this points to positive gbp/usd movement. Why? It's very likely that interest rates on the pound will be hiked, whereas the US$ rates will stay the same, or may be cut. If you were a bank with billions of $.. wouldn't you invest in pounds.. and get a nice fat interest on your deposit? That's what makes the pound go up.. it offers a nice interest rate (compared to the USD) Look at all the Yen pairs.. why is the yen so low? Because it offers a 0.5% interest rate.. Long term trading is great if you have the funds necessary to allow for any major drawdowns. It's very important to keep abreast of daily nancial reports relating to the respective economies of whatever currency you may be trading.
mikler1
Why is there retracing? A general question....
07-20-2007 05:35 AM
Please could someone explain to a newbie why there is retracing? What is the logic behind it? Thanks very much to evryone on this forum - by reading only, I have learned lots! Mik
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nhallmark
07-20-2007 11:06 AM
mikler1, the retrace is usually prot taking...for example...everyone buys on the news which creates a spike upwards and eventually the people that bought are going to sell to close their positions...so the price will move back down or "retrace" part of the spike and if the news is really good(or bad) the move will then continue further in the direction of the initial spike. Hope that helps :)
Britguy
Mp,
07-23-2007 01:27 AM
I understand now. Limit orders for spike trading and market orders for retracements on currenex. I presume you put your stop just under the pre-release price for retracements. I am a short-termist too. I havent really got the balls for long term trades yet.
mikler1
Nhallmark - Thanks... Thanks - that explanation was great!
07-23-2007 08:37 AM
OceanView
07-23-2007 02:20 PM
OK, I'm back. I tried to trade without the news and lost my @ss. My theory of no stop trading did not work as there were trades I could not close for days while loosing all my account. Back to basics is where I need to be. I guess part of the reason for me to trade outside of the news announcements was that I could not nd a decent platform to trade without getting requotes or no executions unless I opted for a currenex account. At this point, I am affraid to risk $50K for it. So I am in kind of stuck as to how I can trade the news without risking a large amount of money. Any ideas?
nhallmark
Quote:
07-23-2007 03:07 PM
Originally Posted by OceanView (Post 3953226) OK, I'm back. I tried to trade without the news and lost my @ss. My theory of no stop trading did not work as there were trades I could not close for days while loosing all my account. Back to basics is where I need to be. I guess part of the reason for me to trade outside of the news announcements was that I could not
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nd a decent platform to trade without getting requotes or no executions unless I opted for a currenex account. At this point, I am affraid to risk $50K for it. So I am in kind of stuck as to how I can trade the news without risking a large amount of money. Any ideas?
Im not even sure you can get lled on currenex either(at a good price). Spike trading is about to be dead, if its not already... because of the damn brokers. MP seems to have the after spike trades gured out, but Im not sure how he does it because everytime Ive tried it...it never works :rolleyes:
OceanView
Quote:
07-23-2007 03:37 PM
Originally Posted by nhallmark (Post 3953404) Im not even sure you can get lled on currenex either(at a good price). Spike trading is about to be dead, if its not already... because of the damn brokers. MP seems to have the after spike trades gured out, but Im not sure how he does it because everytime Ive tried it...it never works :rolleyes:
I think what MP is doing is just waiting for the news, if the news is good then he waits for a dip and buys. I think he stays in the trade a bit longer to achieve the maximum prot as possible and then closes the trade. Over time (1-4 hours), the news tends to keep the same general direction. If the news is bad, then he sells (doing the opposite of above) and rides the trend and closes at a later time. I am guessing this is what he is doing but maybe he will be along shortly to explain in more detail.
Music_Producer
07-23-2007 03:39 PM
Britguy, I don't place any stops - when you trade fundamentals, and the report is strong, the price does move your way. After-spike trading also works - again, you have to take into consideration the deviation of the report. If a report hardly deviates, then there will be a small spike, and a full retracement, and that's it. There's no telling where the currency will go next - that would be trading blindly. Take the AUD PPI report yesterday. When the PPI came out higher than expected.. AUD/USD spiked from 0.8793 to 0.8805.. and then fell back (slightly) to 0.8800. I got in at that point.. however, the price remained at about 0.8804-0.8805 for the next 20 minutes. After that, it rose to 0.8810.. that's when I exited. An hour later.. the price went up to 0.8838! So this was a good 40 pips move, slow.. really easy to get in. Also, take into account it was a sunday here - so no US banks were buyin/selling.. so the aussie $ really had no opposition to it's upward move. After spike trading works, but you have to be patient. Spike trading - you get in and out in 2-3 seconds. After spike trading.. you have to be slightly more patient, take into account present market conditions and trade accordingly. Edit : - You got it Ocean ;-) Btw, if you do want to trade 'technicals' just take advantage of the fact that the $
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is weak, and the jpy is weak. Look at the pairs I mentioned in an earlier post - they all have a long term upward bias. Look for dips, and buy. Take NZD/USD for example.. when the RBNZ (bank of new zealand) sold a trillion NZD .. because they thought the currency was too high.. it dropped 100-120 pips.. and the sucker started coming back up. Within a few hours it was back to it's original level! Look for dips in aud/jpy, gbp/usd, nzd/usd.. trade accordingly and please keep the news ticker open!

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OceanView
Nathan, I forgot to ask, what platform are you using now? Are you even trading? And, how is SoCal Life so far?
07-23-2007 03:39 PM
nhallmark
I double posted...sorry
07-23-2007 03:59 PM
nhallmark
Quote:
07-23-2007 04:01 PM
Originally Posted by OceanView (Post 3953522) Nathan, I forgot to ask, what platform are you using now? Are you even trading? And, how is SoCal Life so far?
Im on dukascopy...no ll on UK CPI or UK GDP last week. Ive been trying some technicals again but Im about to quit trading all together and go get a job so I can make some money:rolleyes: LA is cool...its damn expensive though. MP, thats what Im talking about...I got 1 pip on AUD PPI yesterday...I waited for the retrace..I got in and it kind of stayed there for a good 15-30 minutes so I closed...and then it takes off.
Music_Producer
07-23-2007 05:37 PM
Yup nathan, happens to me all the time - price takes off soon as I exit :rolleyes: Btw, pound just broke the 2.0600 barrier.. up at 2.0630 now. This sucker's going to be at 2.100 in a month unless pu$$y bernanke does something.
OceanView
Quote:
07-23-2007 06:58 PM
1 of 10
1/15/08 8:41 PM
Originally Posted by Music_Producer (Post 3953907) Yup nathan, happens to me all the time - price takes off soon as I exit :rolleyes: Btw, pound just broke the 2.0600 barrier.. up at 2.0630 now. This sucker's going to be at 2.100 in a month unless pu$$y bernanke does something.
Ha ha :p I doubt he will do anything and actually I hope he doesn't. My house is still on the market and mortgage rates have creeped up.
Music_Producer
Quote:
07-23-2007 07:08 PM
Originally Posted by OceanView (Post 3954155) Ha ha :p I doubt he will do anything and actually I hope he doesn't. My house is still on the market and mortgage rates have creeped up.
Don't worry.. he won't raise rates.. he'll just 'talk' a bit about how ination is important blah blah.. but if he raises rates the housing market will be doomed. There's just too much housing woes going on right now, I don't think he will add to it. Right now gbp/usd looks dangerous to trade - I'm going to wait for the housing reports to enter any trade. Also, look out for australian cpi tomorrow.. and trade aud/usd and aud/jpy accordingly. Remember that their default direction is upward anyway.. so if the cpi comes out higher than expected.. buy.
nhallmark
07-23-2007 09:02 PM
MP, do you think there will be an after spike trade on CAD retail sales in the morning, provided that the data warrants it? Im trying to gure it out because Ive seen some CAD reports where the move wont continue and some where it will go 60-80 pips past the initial spike...both with a huge deviation. I'll be ready for AUD tomorrow...should come out good since PPI did and last time CPI followed PPI pretty close.
sjshaw
07-23-2007 09:56 PM
Well, I just nished reading the whole thread, and it appears my fears were well-founded... news trading (a la what MP and others were doing at the beginning) is dead unless you go with a good broker using currenex, no? If I wanted to get started trading the news, and don't want to open a $50k account with capitalforex, do I have any options? I looked at the broker reviews at forexbastards, but what do you guys think? Ever looked at tradestation? They are famous in the commodity community, and rightly so. I have an account with xpresstrade, whose FOREX arm is xtfx.com, so they are an option as well, I suppose.
2 of 10
1/15/08 8:41 PM
MP, nhallmark, other vets of this thread: if you were starting out today, what broker would you use and how would you have changed your initial approach? I don't want to sink even more hours into learning FOREX if the only options given to new traders is to lose your money with slippage, outrageous spreads, and outright fraud.
Music_Producer
07-24-2007 04:11 AM
Nathan, I'll try and trade the initial spike.. but if i don't get in, i'll try and trade as soon as it stagnates (depending on the report of course) I had a very nice trade tonight, when gbp/usd hit 2.0650 which is a good psychological barrier for the markets.. I shorted it.. and it went down to 2.0635.. which is when I exited. I expected it to come back to 2.0650 but it didn't. Then the UK report came in pretty horrid (industrial trend orders) - basically because of the strong pound.. brit exports are suffering. So I shorted gbp/usd on that report.. at 2.0612.. had to wait 45 minutes for it to reach 2.0604 and then exited. Some struggle going on at 2.0600.. obviously, let's see if that is breached. SJ.. I think if I were to start forex now, I would have a much more open mind - and not merely limited to trading news spikes. As soon as I encountered broker issues (because of autoclick services, just about anybody and everybody started making money.. so brokers started shutting them down).. I thought that was it, it's the end of trading. However, it forces you to think otherwise, of different methods (anything other than technicals - i can't trade technicals at all) So right now, I'm simply trading on fundamentals.. and if I see some major barriers, I will jump in. I lost 6 pips on a technical trade yesterday so that was it for me - technicals are simply guessing where the chart is going to land up in the next few minutes or hours. Logicaly, gbp/usd should go down further.. and then shoot back up when the US home sales report comes out (expected to be bad - but you never know)
Music_Producer
07-24-2007 05:36 AM
DAMN!!! What a #$%# trade!! Extreme deviation - great for Canadian $.. I got in right away.. lled at 1.0421 (jumped from 1.0440 i think - so i got in after the rst 20 pip move) Didn't even wait for a retrace because with this kind of report, there's no retracements baby! Exited at 1.0388.. and it went all the way to 1.0375 :eek::D:D This is the kind of trade where you can make a killing..
nhallmark
07-24-2007 06:01 AM
Good job man!! I couldnt get lled on the spike but after it paused, I got in at 1.0405 and out at 1.0375....30 pips :D
Music_Producer
Quote:
07-24-2007 06:05 AM
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1/15/08 8:41 PM
Good job man!! I couldnt get lled on the spike but after it paused, I got in at 1.0405 and out at 1.0375....30 pips :D
Yehhh.. that's what we're talking about :D There's talks of it going to 1.0325 but I'm not getting in now.. lol. Btw, check gbp/usd out - it hit 2.0650 again, and then dropped 25 pips. I'll be ready to short at 2.0700 if it does hit that level.
sjshaw
Quote:
07-24-2007 09:18 AM
Originally Posted by Music_Producer (Post 3955420) However, it forces you to think otherwise, of different methods (anything other than technicals - i can't trade technicals at all) So right now, I'm simply trading on fundamentals.. and if I see some major barriers, I will jump in.
Thanks for the response. If you have time, would you please elaborate on your current trading strategies as opposed to your news spike strategies? From reading the recent posts, it appears that you are playing the retracement game, but you imply there is more than that. Obviously, you were relying on fundamentals before. How is your current reliance on them and your resulting strategy different? You're talking about support and resistance points, but that is a technical approach. Also, any broker recommendations for a beginner, since CMC is clearly out?
Britguy
Mp, Are you topping up on the Carry trades today? They look value here. Britguy
07-24-2007 12:18 PM
Music_Producer
Quote:
07-24-2007 12:56 PM
Originally Posted by Britguy (Post 3956958) Mp, Are you topping up on the Carry trades today? They look value here. Britguy
Hey Britguy, I just woke up.. I'm not getting into the carry trades yet.. I think the jpy pairs should still fall. You never know when a sell off starts but it looks like it's happening right now. I'm scouring the news right now, to look for any information - nothing so far - looks like just broad based banks selling.
4 of 10
1/15/08 8:41 PM
Edit : - I am waiting for aud/jpy to hit 105.. let's see if it does.
revenuee
the last two weeks USD/EUR 187 pips and still holding USD/ GBP 468 pips and still holding USD/ PLN - sold at 340 pips after 5 days USD/DKK - sold at 837 pips after 12 days pretty good run
07-24-2007 01:12 PM
Music_Producer
07-24-2007 06:38 PM
The jpy pairs dropped further down britguy.. like I said they would. I usually wait for a 300-400 pip drop.. gbp/jpy is scary.. it can go even 1000 pips in a matter of hours. Also, gbp/usd is down as I mentioned in an earlier post.. it's a good way for banks to make prots - drive it down to sub 2.0600 levels.. and then when US home sales come out disappointing, should go back up. Again, I'm assuming home sales will be lower than forecast. Let's see what happens. Edit : - 14 pips on aud/usd trade - aud cpi came out higher than expected.
nhallmark
I got lled at 0.8823 so I closed + 10.
07-24-2007 07:03 PM
MP, did you really lose money on AUD CPI? Why did you have a position open before news?
Music_Producer
Quote:
07-24-2007 07:07 PM
Originally Posted by nhallmark (Post 3958499) I got lled at 0.8823 so I closed + 10. MP, did you really lose money on AUD CPI? Why did you have a position open before news?
Oh no nathan.. the "-" was merely a dash - not meant to be negative 14 pips :p I did make a prot.. and there was ample opportunity to get in a retrace as well.. it dropped to 0.8811.. and then slowly climbed back up to 0.8835. Missed that opportunity..
nhallmark
Quote:
07-24-2007 10:31 PM
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1/15/08 8:41 PM
Oh no nathan.. the "-" was merely a dash - not meant to be negative 14 pips :p I did make a prot.. and there was ample opportunity to get in a retrace as well.. it dropped to 0.8811.. and then slowly climbed back up to 0.8835. Missed that opportunity..
Oh ok...I was wondering for a second how you would manage to lose money on that...anyway, my mistake ;)
Britguy
I picked up some NZD/JPY at 96.20, so hopefully it will continue towards 100 before long.
07-25-2007 02:41 AM
Music_Producer
07-25-2007 07:13 AM
Barely escaped with 4 pips.. USD very strong this morning - for no logical reason. Probably a lot of prot taking after 2 weeks of getting sold. waiting to see if gbp hits 2.05
~Shard~
07-25-2007 07:27 AM
Yeah, no trade for me this morning, not enough movement. Looking forward to Friday's trade, hopefully that will move things.
Music_Producer
07-25-2007 02:04 PM
Nice 24 pips on nzd/usd trade - sweet drop.. rates came out as expected (8.25%) Also no more rate hikes seem likely.. don't know if nzd/usd will drop more.. but I've exited this position.
nhallmark
Quote:
07-25-2007 02:16 PM
Originally Posted by Music_Producer (Post 3961662) Nice 24 pips on nzd/usd trade - sweet drop.. rates came out as expected (8.25%) Also no more rate hikes seem likely.. don't know if nzd/usd will drop more.. but I've exited this position.
Good job! I didnt trade because I saw the spread ash 14/71 at one point so I just decided to stay out. Also, Felix is a f%@king idiot...he gave a buy on SNW. I knew not to trust him on that because Ive seen what happens with NZD rate decisions before...and usually all rate decisions that come out as expected are more likely to drop than rise. Anyway, MP check your PM
Music_Producer
Quote:
07-25-2007 02:33 PM
6 of 10
1/15/08 8:41 PM
Originally Posted by nhallmark (Post 3961731) Good job! I didnt trade because I saw the spread ash 14/71 at one point so I just decided to stay out. Also, Felix is a f%@king idiot...he gave a buy on SNW. I knew not to trust him on that because Ive seen what happens with NZD rate decisions before...and usually all rate decisions that come out as expected are more likely to drop than rise. Anyway, MP check your PM
He gave a buy?? On an expected hike? Lol.. the only time a buy should be carried out is if there is an unexpected rate hike.. never on an expected one. Geez.. I wonder how many of his followers lost money on this one :eek: Also, nally gured out (a little too late) why gbp/usd went down on bad US home sales.. because apparently the median price of homes has increased for the rst time in a year. Oooh.. man, US home sellers are crazy.. they want the highest prot in a stagnating market. Just checked my pm.. will get back to the dealer about the yamahas, and send you the invoice tomorrow.
nhallmark
07-25-2007 03:06 PM
Yeah, his logic was that the rate hike wasn't fully priced in...and it did jump up for a split second but not long enough to get in and out with a prot.
Music_Producer
07-26-2007 06:08 AM
Weirdest day today.. huge selloff in the pound.. got 30 pips shorting gbp/usd on the UK home price report.. it was a move that took about 3 hours. Then comes US Durable orders report.. news was terrible for the US$.. pound spiked up by 10 pips and then *bam* back to where it jumped from.. and stayed there. I got out for a -2 pip loss.. can't quite imagine what the hell prevented it from going up. And then it dropped :confused: I'm guessing that the bad news in the UK and an overbought pound is nally starting to take effect - or maybe this is all just prot taking.. since this is the last week for all inst. traders.. and they probably want to end it in a prot. Let's see what the new home sales report does.. I would be very careful trading this today.. it seems everyone's expecting a great US GDP report tomorrow.. and so the $ is extremely strong. And check out the JPY pairs.. they're getting fried.
Britguy
07-26-2007 12:02 PM
Got stopped on nzd/jpy at breakeven. Thank goodness, as it plummented 350 pips afterwards. Very dangerous marketplace at the moment.
Music_Producer
07-26-2007 12:53 PM
Very dangerous to trade right now.. I'm waiting for Tokyo to open.. GBP/JPY has the potential to drop 1000 pips.. it's happened before. I would just hate to be in at the wrong time.. in the wrong direction!
7 of 10
1/15/08 8:41 PM
Music_Producer
07-26-2007 11:59 PM
Unbelievable day.. I shorted gbp/jpy at 241.86 earlier this afternoon after I woke up from a nap.. and then it went up.. all the way up. I closed my position at a 200 pip loss. Then at 244 I decided to short the hell out of it since it was showing signs of struggling.. also, european stocks were to fall again.. and gbp/jpy fell all the way back to 241.65.. so I recovered my losses and made some good money. Hell, it left with me a good headache though. I am NOT entering these trades again :eek: It's like standing in front of a train.. moves down 600 pips.. up 300.. down 400.. sheesh! I can't believe AUD/JPY is languishing at 101.79 right now.. when all these carry traders abandon ship.. they really do so in a synchronized manner!!
~Shard~
What's that I hear? Now's a good time to buy into the carry trade, you say? :p ;) :D
07-27-2007 12:06 AM
Music_Producer
Quote:
07-27-2007 12:15 AM
Originally Posted by ~Shard~ (Post 3968322) What's that I hear? Now's a good time to buy into the carry trade, you say? :p ;) :D
Lol.. let's see how this works out. If the 'risk aversion' zzles out by monday.. all these jpy pairs will be back up 600-800 pips. Heck, that could even happen today. All I know is.. I'm ready for another sleepless night ;)
nhallmark
07-27-2007 12:30 AM
Damn...Ive been scalping EUR/JPY since 5pm today....made 50 pips, lost 10 out of 7 trades. Im going to sleep! Oh yeah, MP will you glance at EUR/JPY on currenex and tell me what spreads your getting...I know its variable, just what the range is around this time of day.
Music_Producer
07-27-2007 12:42 AM
8 of 10
1/15/08 8:41 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by nhallmark (Post 3968361) Damn...Ive been scalping EUR/JPY since 5pm today....made 50 pips, lost 10 out of 7 trades. Im going to sleep! Oh yeah, MP will you glance at EUR/JPY on currenex and tell me what spreads your getting...I know its variable, just what the range is around this time of day.
Nathan, I've been watching it for the last few minutes - spread ranges from 1 to 2 pips. Spread on gbp/jpy has been strange - from 2 to 6 at times. I don't know if I'll be able to sleep..
Britguy
Mp,
07-27-2007 02:54 AM
Just about to complete my cnx forms. Can you tell me roughly what % of time you get lled on the spike with limit orders? Regards, Britguys
nhallmark
Quote:
07-27-2007 09:54 AM
Originally Posted by Music_Producer (Post 3968382) Nathan, I've been watching it for the last few minutes - spread ranges from 1 to 2 pips. Spread on gbp/jpy has been strange - from 2 to 6 at times. I don't know if I'll be able to sleep..
Thanks man...dukascopy is giving me between 2-3 sometimes 4, and rarely 1 pip. How much are your commisions? I know you said but I forgot :p
Music_Producer
07-27-2007 08:59 PM
Nathan, cnx commissions are $25 per million traded.. but that varies depending on the amount of deposit and the volume of trades on a monthly basis. Britguy, I would say 70% of my limit orders go through on spikes.. but on volatile reports I don' bother to use limit orders, because I know they just won't go through. As far as the current jpy pairs situation goes.. I was waiting for the DOW to drop this morning, but I was so sleepy that I went off to bed at 8.30 am pst. After that, apparently, the dow did drop.. and so gbpjpy dropped almost a 100 pips :mad: All the action always happens as soon as i leave lol. What do you guys think is going to happen as soon as the weekend is over? There might be a retracement, but in the long term, it still looks like a drop for jpy pairs.. too risky to make any predictions or to get in. I've
9 of 10
1/15/08 8:41 PM
seen gbp/jpy move up by 200 pips.. and then down by 150.. in a matter of minutes. Let's see if the world stock markets stabilize on monday.. any signs that they are ok and we should see a retracement on gbp/jpy and other pairs.
nhallmark
MP, were you watching a dow chart or were you waiting on news about it?
07-29-2007 05:46 PM
Music_Producer
Quote:
08-01-2007 06:00 PM
Originally Posted by nhallmark (Post 3977243) MP, were you watching a dow chart or were you waiting on news about it?
Nathan, I was just checking yahoo nance and refreshing the page every few seconds. How've you been.. all of you.. I was out of town.. in San Diego, just got home. Feels good to be back :) UK interest rate decision tonight.. watch out for any surprises, although at this stage I doubt they will raise. If they do, GU and GBP/JPY will be going through the roof. As for other reports, I want to wait for this market volatility to calm down a bit. Too many reports of hedge funds going bankrupts, credit tightening, carry trade unwinding going on.. not a good atmosphere to trade. You might see a small spike, and then some crazy action. Looks like jpy pairs are taking a little breather.. but I think the action is far from over. Shard.. remember Amaranth? Same thing happened to Bear Sterns, Goldman Sachs, etc. How in the world these guys can invest more than 80% of their portfolio in a single industry (subprimes) is beyond the imagination. Nice, they keep repeating the same mistakes. Can you imagine going from being a solid company to bankruptcy in a few days :eek:

10 of 10
1/15/08 8:41 PM

OceanView
Quote:
08-01-2007 08:36 PM
Originally Posted by Music_Producer (Post 3990354) remember Amaranth? Same thing happened to Bear Sterns, Goldman Sachs, etc. How in the world these guys can invest more than 80% of their portfolio in a single industry (subprimes) is beyond the imagination. Nice, they keep repeating the same mistakes. Can you imagine going from being a solid company to bankruptcy in a few days :eek:
It's called greed. Nothing motivates men like money. I am sure they made plenty of money in the hey days when they charged $15K-$25K per loan to unsuspecting buyers who otherwise could not qualify for a loan. They are getting what they deserve, after all, they did have a hand in creating this situation.
~Shard~
Quote:
08-01-2007 09:31 PM
Originally Posted by Music_Producer (Post 3990354) Shard.. remember Amaranth? Same thing happened to Bear Sterns, Goldman Sachs, etc. How in the world these guys can invest more than 80% of their portfolio in a single industry (subprimes) is beyond the imagination. Nice, they keep repeating the same mistakes. Can you imagine going from being a solid company to bankruptcy in a few days :eek:
Yeah, I totally hear ya. Scary stuff, yet not surprising (unfortunately). It's the nature of the beast... :o Even more reason we need to set up our fund and show 'em how it's really done. ;) :cool:
Music_Producer
08-03-2007 06:30 AM
Bear Sterns.. you guys need me to improve your portfolio ;) I got 60 pips on the NFP today.. didn't trade the spike at all.. waited for the retracement.. came in nice and smooth.. eur/usd fell from 1.3720 to 1.3706.. got in.. and exited after 20 pips. Did that 2 more times.. it even went down to 1.3702 at one point.. and went up all the way to 1.3725. NFP was bad, and unemployment rate went up by 0.1% as well. Let's see how the stock markets perform - I wanted to short GBP/JPY .. good thing I didn't.. stupid thing shot
1 of 11
1/15/08 8:42 PM
up in the last few minutes. I have a feeling it's going to drop later during the day.. but you never know.. that thing is seriously unpredictable.
Music_Producer
Oh great.. EUR/USD is now 1.3750. Always moves when I exit my trade :rolleyes: Edit : - AND GBP/JPY dropped a 100 pips. Now if only I can follow my own advice..
08-03-2007 06:48 AM
mrhurley1
New to forex hi,
08-08-2007 07:15 AM
Iim very interested in forex and really want to start tradng..i have started to read as much as i can etc and set up demo accounts..however i have a mac and was wandering what the best forex sites to use are with a mac and what charting software i can run..as meta trader is not available on the mac.. music producer you seem to know your stuff...any advice? cheerz
~Shard~
08-08-2007 09:45 AM
Welcome to our thread mrhurley1 and the wonderful world of forex! :D :cool: Unfortunately there are no good clients for Mac - the best you'll nd are Java-based versions which will run in web browsers, but they aren't the most reliable in my opinion - I'm thinking of Oanda specically. Unfortunately, I have to use my PC for all my trading. Speaking of trading, I took a bit of a risk last night and entered the carry trade after the Aussie news. Entered AUDJPY at 101.81 and woke up this morning to nd my TP hit at 102.41 for a 60 pip gain on a $100K lot! Nice... ;) :cool: Slow news day today though it seems...
nhallmark
08-08-2007 09:46 AM
mrhurley1, oanda runs on a mac. I like their charts but I wouldnt suggest trading with them. Their site is oanda.com Also, if youre just looking for charts, prorealtime.com is web based and it runs in safari. As for trading platforms, dukascopy works on a mac(web based) and I think MP said currenex will now run in safari....both of those have high minimum deposits though. Hope that helps, Nathan Edit: Shard, I guess we posted at the same time :p
OceanView
08-08-2007 10:47 AM
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1/15/08 8:42 PM
Shard, Glad to hear someone is still making some money. I've been watching on the side lines and playing with a demo account on some new strategy myself. MP's comments on playing after the initial spike got me thinking and so I am trying to implement it. Hope it works cause I want to get one of the new iMacs with the 24" screen. :D
~Shard~
Quote:
08-08-2007 12:22 PM
Originally Posted by nhallmark (Post 4020004) Edit: Shard, I guess we posted at the same time :p
Yep - and we posted pretty much the same thing too! Ah well, no surprise - as they say, great minds think a like... ;) :D
Quote:
Originally Posted by OceanView (Post 4020344) Shard, Glad to hear someone is still making some money. I've been watching on the side lines and playing with a demo account on some new strategy myself. MP's comments on playing after the initial spike got me thinking and so I am trying to implement it. Hope it works cause I want to get one of the new iMacs with the 24" screen. :D
Yeah, I've been either too busy lately or not hitting any good trades myself as of late. Hopefully things will start to pick up again. I, too, am going to try Music_Producer's strategy. Since I am still stuck with CMC, it might be the only way to trade due to their behavior as of late wrt news trading. :rolleyes:
~Shard~
08-08-2007 06:44 PM
7 pips off the Aussie report. The #s weren't quite as good as expectations, but still better than previous report. And, the unemployment rate was forecasted to rise by 0.1% however it remained constant. I'll take it! :cool:
mrhurley1
08-09-2007 03:10 AM
thanks guys...ive been playin with oanda but i cant gure out how to set bonacci numbers on there charts does anyone know? also where do you guys get your currrency news from and know when to trade etc
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1/15/08 8:42 PM
~Shard~
08-09-2007 05:20 AM
No trade on Canadian housing starts... will be watching the next batch of news in 10 minutes...
Quote:
Originally Posted by mrhurley1 (Post 4024453) thanks guys...ive been playin with oanda but i cant gure out how to set bonacci numbers on there charts does anyone know?
Sorry, can't help ya on that one, I have never used b at all with my trading. When I do technical trading (as opposed to news trading) I have other indicators which I rely on for signals such as MACD and the like.
Quote:
Originally Posted by mrhurley1 (Post 4024453) also where do you guys get your currrency news from and know when to trade etc
The majority of us use Trade the News (TTN). They have a free 14-day trial I believe. Great service. If you are serious about trading the news, you can subscribe to the Bloomberg terminal for $1800/month. :eek: :p ;) As for the news releases, you can nd a calendar on Oanda's site right here under "Decision Support". :cool:
Music_Producer
08-09-2007 06:02 AM
400 pips today. My best achievement ever - and GBP/JPY is still dropping. It all started at 11.45 pm PST when BNP PAribas announced that they were freezing 3 funds.. conrming that the effects of the US subprime meltdown has spread to Europe. Then another fund company stated that they lost $180 million or so.. european markets plunged. GBP/JPY is still dropping.. US markets open soon.. in all probability, DOW will crash as well. I've exited my position though.. I think it has dropped enough for today.. but you never know.. it could go 200 pips lower. Shard, I traded aussie report today.. bagged about 8 pips on it.. it was too slow to respond. Then on NZD report I got about 5 pips.. nothing great.. but man, trading GBP/JPY is something else. Just a word of caution Shard, don't get into any carry trades right now (like you bought aud/jpy) Markets are still very unstabe.. very volatile.. if any more banks come out with reports of losses.. trust me.. there will be another 400-500 pip drop. Keep checking bloomberg.com.. their news are usually delayed.. I think TTN updates it earlier.. but be on the lookout.
~Shard~
08-09-2007 06:30 AM
Great work Music_Producer, well done! And yeah, I'll be staying out of this mess for a little while. ;) ... And there goes the opening bell - should be a wild ride today... :cool:
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1/15/08 8:42 PM
nhallmark
Quote:
08-09-2007 10:41 AM
Originally Posted by mrhurley1 (Post 4024453) thanks guys...ive been playin with oanda but i cant gure out how to set bonacci numbers on there charts does anyone know? also where do you guys get your currrency news from and know when to trade etc
First break off the chart into a new window(the button in the top right hand corner) then drag your mouse over the buttons that are now in the top right hand corner of the new chart and the mouseover on one will say "draw advanced trendline". Click on that and click bonnaci retracement. Now when you move your mouse in the chart window it will appear as crosshairs. Click on your high or low and drag it to the other and you should see it appear. Hope that helps, Nathan
Music_Producer
08-10-2007 03:29 AM
If you guys are going to trade the Canadian employment report.. please be very cautious. Markets are crazy right now.. FTSE's down 175.. DOW might do another -200 or -300 day.. hopefully it won't.
Music_Producer
08-10-2007 05:09 AM
You guys are missing out on all the action.. hope you are trading GBP/JPY.. it fell another 300 pips today.. might go more.. depends on markets (DOW looks set to crash.. FTSE is now 212 points down) Add bad news - Deutsche bank funds are down 30%.. SEC starts investigating hedge fund losses and mortgage companies, etc etc. Not to sound overly exaggerative.. but if ECB/Feds don't do anything to calm the markets down.. it's very possible to see this thing go down to 224 or lower.
~Shard~
08-10-2007 09:56 AM
Damn, I've just been too busy lately! I'll have to free up some more time next week and capitlaize if it's not too late! Thanks for the head's up Music_Producer! :) :cool:
Music_Producer
08-13-2007 03:21 AM
Shorted everything I had out of GBP/USD and GBP/JPY when the PPI came in at -0.5%. For the rst 20 minutes or so.. nothing much happened.. and then the drop began. I got 100 pips on GBP/JPY (when that pair moves, it MOVES) and 40 on GBP/USD. :D Still has the potential to go down more because of 'Russian sellers' in the market.. but I'm out for now.
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1/15/08 8:42 PM
nhallmark
08-13-2007 07:41 AM
Good job, MP! Im still learning but last week UK industrial production came out as expected but it was still way lower than previous...no spike but then 30 minutes later GBP/USD dropped 80 pips. Im still catching on to it and trying to gure out whats going to cause a move, etc. but it looks more consistent than spike trading and a lot more pips.
OceanView
Quote:
08-13-2007 08:15 AM
Originally Posted by Music_Producer (Post 4041515) Shorted everything I had out of GBP/USD and GBP/JPY when the PPI came in at -0.5%. For the rst 20 minutes or so.. nothing much happened.. and then the drop began. I got 100 pips on GBP/JPY (when that pair moves, it MOVES) and 40 on GBP/USD. :D Still has the potential to go down more because of 'Russian sellers' in the market.. but I'm out for now.
MP, How do you determine the length of time you stay in a trade? That seems to be the trickiest part of using this new strategy.
Music_Producer
08-13-2007 03:45 PM
Yep nathan, if the news is bad enough and there is no move.. it will move eventually. Just keep an eye out for any other news at the same time. PPI came out way worse than expected.. and GU and GJ actually went up 20 pips during the rst few minutes! It was just a temporary spike though, as gu and gj were heavily sold during the london session. Sometimes there is a price consolidation for 30 minutes to an hour (usually 30 minutes) and then the price starts moving fast. Ocean.. on GJ trades.. that pair moves 100-200 pips in a minute.. so my target is usually 100 pips on gbp/jpy. On gbp/usd it's 20-30 pips but the ppi # was terrible.. so i stayed in a bit longer. Plus, on oanda's news feed I read that some european+russian sellers were short on gbp/jpy. So it's a combination of everything - bad ppi, risk aversion atmosphere (people already selling gbp/jpy and gbp/usd) and those russian sellers. If the markets were stable i.e. none of this carry trade unwinding or subprime fears were going on.. gbp/usd would have probably dropped 40 pips and then come back up.. GBP/JPY wouldn't even have been affected by the news.
Music_Producer
08-13-2007 04:24 PM
I completely forgot about the NZ sales report while I was posting above :rolleyes: Anyway, I got in after the spike.. sales were pretty terrible - so I ended up with 12 pips. Took a little long for it to drop from 0.7364 to 0.7350 .. but patience pays off. Next is tomorrow's UK CPI report - if it comes out worse than expected, watch out GBP/USD!
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Britguy
That was the mutha of all reports - UK CPI. Got 80pips. Sweet.
08-14-2007 02:12 AM
Music_Producer
Quote:
08-14-2007 02:37 AM
Originally Posted by Britguy (Post 4045988) That was the mutha of all reports - UK CPI. Got 80pips. Sweet.
Nice! I got 65 myself.. shorted a huge lot though.. so it was way more than I expected. I wanted to short earlier - had a feeling cpi would be really bad.. but obviously that would be a totally risky move. If you also see nzd/usd.. it went down to 0.7298.. about 40-50 pips more after I exited.. but it took a couple of hours. That's the nice thing about nzd/usd (if the reports wildly deviate)
Macmaniac
Hey All
08-14-2007 11:03 AM
I have been reading through this forum for the last few days, and I have been browsing through babypips.com and I have a few questions. First I am new to FOREX, my friend has been explaining a little bit to me, and this thread has helped a lot but I have a couple FAQs for you guys. Second, I don't plan on doing any real FOREX trading until I have done at least 2 months on a trial account. So here goes: 1. Who do you recommend I use for the trial, and for actual trading. 2. How much $ should I start with, I am a college student so I don't have a lot of free capital ($250-$500) (or if I don't have enough maybe I should wait a few years) 3. What trader software do you use, and what news software do you reccomend 4. Should I be starting this young, or should I wait a bit till I have a more steady income. 5. What is the lowest $ amount I can trade with,(not leverage wise) like can I be trading for pennies or $1-20 orders?
Britguy
MP,
08-16-2007 01:55 AM
Did you get in on the spike at Capforex on retail sales? If so, can you tell me the rate you got? Regards, Britguy
Music_Producer
08-16-2007 04:02 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Britguy (Post 4055010) MP, Did you get in on the spike at Capforex on retail sales? If so, can you tell me the rate you got? Regards, Britguy
Hey Britguy, I didn't trade this one today.. went for a movie 'Rush hour 3' with the wife.. came back to see that GU retail sales were terric.. but it was all due to discounted offerings. I thought that would be a good chance to short GBP/JPY.. but didn't.. thinking it was too low anyway.. Now the damn thing dropped 300 pips in a few seconds. :eek: Did you get in on the sales report? I want to get in the GBP/JPY trade.. but I'm waiting for the US housing starts reports.. if they come out bad.. the DOW is doomed and so are the carries (well they are anyway)
Music_Producer
Quote:
08-16-2007 04:08 AM
Originally Posted by Macmaniac (Post 4047729) I have been reading through this forum for the last few days, and I have been browsing through babypips.com and I have a few questions. First I am new to FOREX, my friend has been explaining a little bit to me, and this thread has helped a lot but I have a couple FAQs for you guys. Second, I don't plan on doing any real FOREX trading until I have done at least 2 months on a trial account. So here goes: 1. Who do you recommend I use for the trial, and for actual trading. 2. How much $ should I start with, I am a college student so I don't have a lot of free capital ($250-$500) (or if I don't have enough maybe I should wait a few years) 3. What trader software do you use, and what news software do you reccomend 4. Should I be starting this young, or should I wait a bit till I have a more steady income. 5. What is the lowest $ amount I can trade with,(not leverage wise) like can I be trading for pennies or $1-20 orders?
1. Try Oanda for demo trading - for actual trading they're good too (except during news events) You can trade as little as 1 pip. I started with making 3-4 cents of prot per day. 2. Start with $50.. yes.. not more than that. 3. For news, TTN is a good place to start (tradethenews.com) but rst check the oanda news ticker.. and see how currency pairs move depending on the deivation of the reports.
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4. You're never too old or too young to start! Don't invest all your money in forex though.. I repeat.. do not make that mistake. It's pretty easy to wipe out your whole account in a few seconds. I recommend starting with $50. Once you make that to $100.. then make that into $200 and so on. If it becomes zero.. you can always deposit an additional $50.. instead of putting in $300 and blowing it all up. 5. Yes, with Oanda you can trade with really small lots.. that's what I love about them. Most brokers give you a 400:1 leverage.. they want you to trade with a huge margin.. because 99% of the time, you will lose - and they stand to gain from that.
Britguy
08-16-2007 04:25 AM
No didnt get in on capforex. my limit order wasnt lled. I shorted aud/jpy last night. left a 100pip take prot. It then moved 600pips from that level. Cant believe it really. A very volatile month. Got to be careful out there.
Music_Producer
Quote:
08-16-2007 04:32 AM
Originally Posted by Britguy (Post 4055260) No didnt get in on capforex. my limit order wasnt lled. I shorted aud/jpy last night. left a 100pip take prot. It then moved 600pips from that level. Cant believe it really. A very volatile month. Got to be careful out there.
Yup, I was short on AUD/USD.. today the Aussie stock markets collapsed (I was short because of the Rams mortgage group declaring that they can't renance 6 billion $ worth of loans) I got out after a 75 pip prot didn't want to get greedy. You'd be shocked if I told you.. but.. the current volatility is nothing. In 1998 .. and earlier years.. GJ has dropped to a max of 11,000 pips. This is just 2,000 pips.. and there is no way of determining when this will end. Just keep an eye out for any negative reports - related to credit, liquidity, etc. At this time, GBP +ve reports will bring temporary relief.. and then the selling will resume. Edit - Britguy, just a word of caution - don't try and trade retracements. Remember that right now the trend for all JPY pairs (and aud/usd, nzd/usd) is down. They may bounce off some key levels - but you never know how fast they will swing right back down. If you do want to trade retracements, try trading with a small lot. I don't like the fact that capital forex has a minimum trade requirement.. there are times when I wish I could trade only 100,000 .. just because I'm not too sure what a pair is going to do.
Britguy
08-16-2007 06:57 AM
11,000 pips - jesus. Very dangerous crosses to play. MP, on Cnx can you tell me what reports you use a limit order on and what for a mkt order? How many pips do you get slipped on mkt orders, typically? I think today has a capitulation feel to it. But I could be wrong.
Britguy
08-16-2007 09:51 AM
I have been watching JPY trades today. It really is amazing to watch. Its like non-farm payroll action, but going on for hours. Denately be selling rallies. Not for the faint-hearted.
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~Shard~
My Nasdaq short is nally paying off big time - I'm loving this. :cool:
08-16-2007 10:02 AM
My stocks are getting hammered of course, but over 60% of my portfolio is in cash right now, as I knew a correction was imminent. All of this action just results in buying opportunities for the fall - again, I'm loving this. :D
Music_Producer
08-16-2007 03:28 PM
Grabbed a quick 200 pips on GBP/JPY after the disappointing housing starts report. At rst, GJ didn't move for quite some time - but then the drop began. As soon as I got out, it kept falling further - another 300 pips! Here is what I was shocked at though - people kept yelling 'Retracement now! Go long! go long!' even before the housing starts came out. People, fundamentals move the markets! Technical indicators (bs, pivot points, etc) are only good at showing where potential price can bounce or go through. Why did the DOW collapse 450 points and then all of a sudden jump back up? Because there were rumors that the Fed was going to hold an emergency meeting to reduce rates.. as soon as that rumor came out, the DOW jumped up.. and so did GJ (by more than 600 pips!) This whole carry trade collapse started with fundamentals - bad news, banks freezing funds, etc.. let's see how far it goes.
Macmaniac
Quote:
08-17-2007 09:29 AM
Originally Posted by Music_Producer (Post 4055234) 1. Try Oanda for demo trading - for actual trading they're good too (except during news events) You can trade as little as 1 pip. I started with making 3-4 cents of prot per day. 2. Start with $50.. yes.. not more than that. 3. For news, TTN is a good place to start (tradethenews.com) but rst check the oanda news ticker.. and see how currency pairs move depending on the deivation of the reports. 4. You're never too old or too young to start! Don't invest all your money in forex though.. I repeat.. do not make that mistake. It's pretty easy to wipe out your whole account in a few seconds. I recommend starting with $50. Once you make that to $100.. then make that into $200 and so on. If it becomes zero.. you can always deposit an additional $50.. instead of putting in $300 and blowing it all up. 5. Yes, with Oanda you can trade with really small lots.. that's what I love about them. Most brokers give you a 400:1 leverage.. they want you to trade with a huge margin.. because 99% of the time, you will lose - and they stand to gain from that.
Thanks very much for your advice! Time to start demo trading, ugh I don't want to look at my pc:(
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n-abounds
08-19-2007 11:15 PM
Hey since this is the only thread where nancially-minded people tend to hang out I hope you don't mind an off-topic question about margins... If my stock's price is $53.5, and I invest $3531 (and another $3531 on margin) for a total investment of $7062, and I buy 132 shares...at what price will I get a margin call (assuming a maintenance margin of 30% and no commissions/margin interest charges)? And now for the on-topic question... What does GJ stand for?
joshmv
08-31-2007 08:48 AM
I was doing a little search on google for forex information, and I somehow ended up here at one of my favorite forums! Anyways, I'm only on page 11, but I've learned a lot so far, is anybody still keeping up with this? Josh
joshmv
Bueller? Guess not
08-31-2007 10:07 PM
~Shard~
09-01-2007 12:28 PM
Hi Josh. I'm not sure where the others are as I can only speak for myself, but I've been extremely busy lately with work and other summer activities. Honestly haven't been trading much, and when I have been, it's been more on the stock and commodity markets. My forex trading will pick up again in the fall, and I'll be posting more frequently in this thread once it does. Not sure where everyone else is, but it's always necessary to take a break from things every once and a while. ;) I'm glad you are nding the tread informative and interesting and if you ever have any questions, post them and hopefully one of us will be around to answer them sooner or later. :o Cheers, Shard

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ctrackstar
09-02-2007 09:25 PM
Hello all! Im new to forex and came across this thread and was actually quite surprised to see so much activity on it in a mac thread. I signed up to get my two cents in even though I dont own a mac :eek: . I owned a ibook though and I have much respect for the platform. I just signed up to chat with you guys about it. I mine as well get an account anyways cause im going to grab me the new iMac so I suppose I can discuss that as well. Im looking to get a ventrilo set up for people who are new to forex. I gure more heads are better than 1 and looking at the amount of activity here compared to other forums I gure you guys are welcome. If I get enough people interested you guys can PM me and I can give you the IP. Id give it here but I dont want no one spamming the vent. Music_producer your also more than welcome to come ;). I havent read this whole thread yet but Ill be getting to it. Who would've though forex would reintroduce me to the world of macs :apple:
joshmv
Quote:
09-02-2007 10:44 PM
Originally Posted by ctrackstar (Post 4123309) Hello all! Im new to forex and came across this thread and was actually quite surprised to see so much activity on it in a mac thread. I signed up to get my two cents in even though I dont own a mac :eek: . I owned a ibook though and I have much respect for the platform. I just signed up to chat with you guys about it. I mine as well get an account anyways cause im going to grab me the new iMac so I suppose I can discuss that as well. Im looking to get a ventrilo set up for people who are new to forex. I gure more heads are better than 1 and looking at the amount of activity here compared to other forums I gure you guys are welcome. If I get enough people interested you guys can PM me and I can give you the IP. Id give it here but I dont want no one spamming the vent. Music_producer your also more than welcome to come ;). I havent read this whole thread yet but Ill be getting to it. Who would've though forex would reintroduce me to the world of macs :apple:
Glad to have you, looks like we're going to put some new blood into the thread. Congrats on the new iMac, I'm working on a 24" (last version) and couldn't be happier.
ctrackstar
Quote:
09-03-2007 12:48 AM
Originally Posted by joshmv (Post 4123528) Glad to have you, looks like we're going to put some new blood into the thread.
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Congrats on the new iMac, I'm working on a 24" (last version) and couldn't be happier.
Yea its funny after reading a lot of forums even ones dedicated to actual forex trading this seemed to be the most in depth and informative. I have gotten a chance to read more into it and can't stop reading. Im a PC guy well as far as I build my own computers and went to college for it(dont hurt me ;) ) and I hear a lot of mac bashing and I must say you guys seem to be as mature and intelligent as the rumors go. Take a ride over at anandtech.com off topic forum and get an idea of what im talking about :D
joshmv
Quote:
09-03-2007 08:27 AM
Originally Posted by ctrackstar (Post 4123709) Yea its funny after reading a lot of forums even ones dedicated to actual forex trading this seemed to be the most in depth and informative. I have gotten a chance to read more into it and can't stop reading. Im a PC guy well as far as I build my own computers and went to college for it(dont hurt me ;) ) and I hear a lot of mac bashing and I must say you guys seem to be as mature and intelligent as the rumors go. Take a ride over at anandtech.com off topic forum and get an idea of what im talking about :D
Welcome to the thread, hopefully we can get that group setup, I think it would be great. Are you trading anything today or tomorrow? AUD has some pretty important announcements coming out, I hope to trade the GDP announcement later on tonight.
~Shard~
09-03-2007 08:36 AM
Welcome to you too ctrackstar, it's always great to have fresh ideas and new traders in the thread. Yes, I'll be watching the AUD GDP announcement tonight. It will be interesting to see if it is indeed going to decrease m/m as predicted and if so if that will impact the carry at all. Hopefully things will pick up this fall and I will have more time to get back into forex trading. As I said above, my focus right now has been more on the stocks and commodities side of things. I will try to be a bit more active than I have been lately, but we'll have to see... :o Again, welcome to you and Josh and I hope some of our other long time regulars (nathan, Music Producer, OceanView etc.) will be back soon as well. :cool:
nhallmark
Hey guys!
09-03-2007 09:51 AM
I haven't posted for awhile because Ive been busy learning to scalp as I dont have any way to news trade anymore.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by n-abounds (Post 4069466) Hey since this is the only thread where nancially-minded people tend to hang out I hope you don't mind an off-topic question about margins... If my stock's price is $53.5, and I invest $3531 (and another $3531 on margin) for a total investment of $7062, and I buy 132 shares...at what price will I get a margin call (assuming a maintenance margin of 30% and no commissions/margin interest charges)? And now for the on-topic question... What does GJ stand for?
Im not sure about your stock question, but G/J stands for GBP/JPY which stands for Great Britain Pound/Japanese Yen
Quote:
Originally Posted by joshmv (Post 4124458) Welcome to the thread, hopefully we can get that group setup, I think it would be great. Are you trading anything today or tomorrow? AUD has some pretty important announcements coming out, I hope to trade the GDP announcement later on tonight.
Who are you trading with right now and are you trading live? I dont even pay attention to news anymore as I cant trade it so Im scalping 5 second charts on oanda now...still learning. I'll get back to posting here in the next week or so. Hope everyone's doing ok :)
ctrackstar
09-03-2007 10:13 AM
I haven't gotten far enough into the thread but does anyone use technical analysis? It seems that mostly fundamental is used and it looks as though thats been a great success. Im going to school of pipsology right now and I have to really say Ive been through a lot of sources and have even read some books at BnN but babypips.com has been by far the greatest. Im not all the way through but the information seems easy and in depth. I also like the writing style. Also let me guys know if you want me to get that ventrilo set up. It is Mac compatible and is a free download. I didnt want to pay the bill if no one got interested: http://www.ventrilo.com/download.php
ctrackstar
09-03-2007 10:27 AM
Also I saw for news that tradethenews.com was used I was wondering if anyone used RSS feeds? On another forex forum I got a good RSS feed setup from about 5 different sources. Ive been using it and it isnt
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bad the feeder I use sing a bell and pops up to give me the latest news although I don't know how timely they are. Let me know if you want the feeds,
joshmv
Quote:
09-03-2007 11:26 AM
Originally Posted by nhallmark (Post 4124746) Hey guys! I haven't posted for awhile because Ive been busy learning to scalp as I dont have any way to news trade anymore. Who are you trading with right now and are you trading live? I dont even pay attention to news anymore as I cant trade it so Im scalping 5 second charts on oanda now...still learning. I'll get back to posting here in the next week or so. Hope everyone's doing ok :)
I think we are both in about the same boat. I'm still using my Oanda practice account, but I'm in the middle of conrming my real money account, so I should be live later this week. I'm also learning how to scalp, so hopefully we can talk some strategy. Have any tips?
Quote:
Originally Posted by ctrackstar (Post 4124827) I haven't gotten far enough into the thread but does anyone use technical analysis? It seems that mostly fundamental is used and it looks as though thats been a great success. Im going to school of pipsology right now and I have to really say Ive been through a lot of sources and have even read some books at BnN but babypips.com has been by far the greatest. Im not all the way through but the information seems easy and in depth. I also like the writing style. Also let me guys know if you want me to get that ventrilo set up. It is Mac compatible and is a free download. I didnt want to pay the bill if no one got interested: http://www.ventrilo.com/download.php
I'm planning on doing some technical analysis, especially if I'm doing some carry trades with the yen, my goal would be to follow technical triggers, and if their wrong, I would still be making the interest. I think it would be awesome to get Ventrilo set up, that way we could talk right up to the announcement and decide which way to go. It COULD even progress to where a group pitches in for Bloomberg and that way we could share the information seamlessly. That's pretty far fetched, but it could happen.
nhallmark
Quote:
09-03-2007 11:40 AM
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Originally Posted by joshmv (Post 4125045) I think we are both in about the same boat. I'm still using my Oanda practice account, but I'm in the middle of conrming my real money account, so I should be live later this week. I'm also learning how to scalp, so hopefully we can talk some strategy. Have any tips?
I'm planning on doing some technical analysis, especially if I'm doing some carry trades with the yen, my goal would be to follow technical triggers, and if their wrong, I would still be making the interest. I think it would be awesome to get Ventrilo set up, that way we could talk right up to the announcement and decide which way to go. It COULD even progress to where a group pitches in for Bloomberg and that way we could share the information seamlessly. That's pretty far fetched, but it could happen.
Are you aware of oanda's spreads during news? I did good on demo with them back in december but as soon as I went live...20 pip spreads on every report. That's why we were all using CMC for awhile but they started playing games also. Music_Producer moved on to currenex which seems to be the only option left but their minimum is $50k. ...thats why Im scalping now...based on this method : http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=38436 And be careful about piling in a carry trade right now with all the subprime issues still unclear. Also, read this... http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...22#post1446922 It was posted about a week before CMC stopped letting me in. I dont know that its over because I think MP is still news trading on currenex but its interesting anyway.
ctrackstar
09-03-2007 11:55 AM
Yea ill get the ventrilo set up. Ill hand out IPs to the "active" people and also upon request will give it to people who PM me. You are more than welcome to bring your friends or whatever. Ill start with a 30 user as I have some others that are learning with me. I haven't been on the Mac platform for a while but perhaps even setting up something there. The cool thing about getting the ventrilo set up is people can have there charts up and discuss. A news item hits you can talk about it. I just think why go at it alone there could be so much you miss and I mean were talking money. Like I said Im not all that familiar with the Mac format and what it offers. Im sure theres something built in that blows away ventrilo as well as has video functions, some real time chat function, and scratches your back but the good thing about vent is the simple fact you can network both Mac and PC people(maybe even some linux :D )
joshmv
Quote:
09-03-2007 12:05 PM
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Are you aware of oanda's spreads during news? I did good on demo with them back in december but as soon as I went live...20 pip spreads on every report. That's why we were all using CMC for awhile but they started playing games also. Music_Producer moved on to currenex which seems to be the only option left but their minimum is $50k. ...thats why Im scalping now...based on this method : http://www.forexfactory.com /showthread.php?t=38436 And be careful about piling in a carry trade right now with all the subprime issues still unclear. Also, read this... http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...22#post1446922 It was posted about a week before CMC stopped letting me in. I dont know that its over because I think MP is still news trading on currenex but its interesting anyway.
Thanks for the tips, and the threads, I'll be reading through them soon. I actually just bookmarked CMC a little while ago, and was wondering if they were still reliable with their tight spreads. We all wish Oanda would stay tight on a consistent basis, but I guess until I nd a reliable place, I'll have to stay there, and if I see the spread widen a lot, I'll just have to wait it out and try to scalp off of the moves once it calms down. Who would you currently recommend other than curranex? Also, if we want a forum, I have a small one on my website and could add another section very easily. You can look at it here: http://www.mycreditstrategy.com/forum If you guys would like one before we get Ventrilo set up, just let me know.
nhallmark
Quote:
09-03-2007 12:40 PM
Originally Posted by joshmv (Post 4125206) Who would you currently recommend other than curranex?
There's several...FXall, EBS, Reuters, BARX, and maybe Hotspot FXi...all of them have higher minimums than currenex though. I checked out your website...I actually did an "app spree" back in june and I got declined on 12 cards with a score above 700. Im 21 so its probably my lack of credit history(2 year old car, 3 $500 cards-8 months old) I got 17 inquiries on my credit from that, but I learned a lot in the process lol.
ctrackstar
Quote:
09-03-2007 12:53 PM
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Originally Posted by nhallmark (Post 4125311) There's several...FXall, EBS, Reuters, BARX, and maybe Hotspot FXi...all of them have higher minimums than currenex though. I checked out your website...I actually did an "app spree" back in june and I got declined on 12 cards with a score above 700. Im 21 so its probably my lack of credit history(2 year old car, 3 $500 cards-8 months old) I got 17 inquiries on my credit from that, but I learned a lot in the process lol.
I learned at an earlier age too. Im 22 now but im glad I learned when I did. I own my own business now and pretty much have to pay cash for everything. Although I do get credit on some things Id rather just pay for it and not have to worry about it.
nhallmark
Quote:
09-03-2007 02:06 PM
Originally Posted by ctrackstar (Post 4125347) I learned at an earlier age too. Im 22 now but im glad I learned when I did. I own my own business now and pretty much have to pay cash for everything. Although I do get credit on some things Id rather just pay for it and not have to worry about it.
What's your business if you don't mind saying?
joshmv
Quote:
09-03-2007 02:26 PM
Originally Posted by nhallmark (Post 4125311) There's several...FXall, EBS, Reuters, BARX, and maybe Hotspot FXi...all of them have higher minimums than currenex though. I checked out your website...I actually did an "app spree" back in june and I got declined on 12 cards with a score above 700. Im 21 so its probably my lack of credit history(2 year old car, 3 $500 cards-8 months old) I got 17 inquiries on my credit from that, but I learned a lot in the process lol.
Sometimes its a mystery why they like some people, and end up declining others, but I'm guessing your "average length of account" had a lot to do with that. I actually created the site because it has been a hobby of mine for a while, and I was looking for a subject for my rst website. There was a lot of people trying it, and didn't know what they were doing, so they ended up ruining their credit score. I hope it's helping out some beginners now.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ctrackstar (Post 4125347) I learned at an earlier age too. Im 22 now but im glad I learned when I did. I own my own business now and pretty much have to pay cash for everything. Although I do get credit on some things Id rather just pay for it and not have to worry about it.
That's the main reason why I got into the credit card balance transfer game, I'd rather just pay cash for things I need, so when I gured out that I could make some easy cash with my credit, I gured why not. I'm usually making over $1000 a month just in interest. Anyways, that's a subject for another thread, if anybody would like a seperate forum for our mac forex traders, just let me know. I'm still excited to do some trading tonight
ctrackstar
Quote:
09-03-2007 02:59 PM
Originally Posted by nhallmark (Post 4125605) What's your business if you don't mind saying?
Promotions and such. Not the most interesting business but it brings a decent pay :D
Music_Producer
09-03-2007 03:22 PM
Good to see everyone active around here :p Hey Nathan, I tried a little technical trading (on my oanda account - with small lots) Had a few prots.. but then again some were losses. Anyway, last week I traded the Aussie retail sales and trade balance report.. both were good.. and I bought aud/usd. Took the pair more than an hour or two to nally go up.. and up it went - by a 100 pips :) I was quite tempted to jump into trading GJ when it was bouncing up and down.. the easiest way to trade that was.. any time there was a huge spike (or fall) it would eventually retrace to the 5SMA and then bounce right back. Again, since I'm not too condent with that strategy I just traded with minimal lots.. but found that it worked all the time. The best trade was the Bernanke+Bush speech. Almost everyone at forexfactory.com was in a long trade on GJ.. because everyone assumed that both of them were going to calm the markets. Bernanke started with no mention of rate cuts.. and stated that the housing sector is pretty bad with possibility of it worsening, etc etc. I shorted GJ and it tanked by a good 120 pips. It then stabilized before Bush's speech.. but he didn't say much 'We won't bail out lenders, investors and speculators' that was all GJ needed to tank another 100 pips or so. So that was some good fundamental trading.. remember, there are not only economic reports to trade fundamentally.. but also when it comes to GJ (due to the current risk scenario) any reports of a major bank or hedge fund shutting down creates huge moves in GJ. So be careful if you're in a trade.
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joshmv
Quote:
09-03-2007 03:23 PM
Originally Posted by nhallmark (Post 4125311) There's several...FXall, EBS, Reuters, BARX, and maybe Hotspot FXi...all of them have higher minimums than currenex though.
So what are you currently using, I'm guessing still CMC? If I'm going to start scalping, or trading on the news, I need to nd the best option for tight spreads, and quick execution, but without a crazy minimum. I'll obviously have to sacrice something, but hopefully we'll nd the best available anyways. What is the favorite over at forexfactory? It sounded like a lot of those guys were getting really low spreads. Josh
joshmv
Good to see you back MP! Keep us updated on what your up to, you still need to guide some of us new guys:D
09-03-2007 03:42 PM
nhallmark
Quote:
09-03-2007 03:51 PM
Originally Posted by joshmv (Post 4125902) So what are you currently using, I'm guessing still CMC? If I'm going to start scalping, or trading on the news, I need to nd the best option for tight spreads, and quick execution, but without a crazy minimum. I'll obviously have to sacrice something, but hopefully we'll nd the best available anyways. What is the favorite over at forexfactory? It sounded like a lot of those guys were getting really low spreads. Josh
Im using MB. There's no way you could scalp with CMC...they have a strict policy against anyone making money lol. With MB, the spreads are good, but you have to pay commissions, so when Im scalping I usually wait for the spread to go to zero before entering(which happens fairly often if the market is active) There is no way in hell you can news trade with them though...you either get lled at the top of the spike with market orders or you never get lled if youre using limits.
joshmv
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09-03-2007 07:55 PM
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Thanks for the info, it looks like I'll probably stay Oanda, and might experiment with MB if I decide to do some scalping. Did anybody trade the AUD GDP announcement? I would have, but I thought it was at 10:00 and it ended up being 9:30 so by the time I got on most of the action was done. Looked like it would have been fun though, I'm guessing MP made some easy money on that one ;) I may stay up for the CHF GDP announcement in a couple hours, but I'm not sure how that will move.
ctrackstar
Has anyone used: http://www.interbankfx.com/
09-03-2007 08:57 PM
I was referred to that by someone who actually programs some of the stuff. I looked at there eco calender and saw that it was hosted by: http://www.econoday.com/ Im assuming there structure is the same as the one you use music? Looking at there calendar(http://www.interbankfx.com/News/EconomicCalendar.aspx) what events would you look at with wide eyes. I was actually surprised to see so much news because I heard of you talking about it but didnt know how much came out on a daily/weekly/monthly basis that was worth trading. Also if people want I already have a ventrillo server up and running if you want to hop on and chat. I dont have the one that Ill dedicate to you guys. Just PM me though and Ill give you the IP.
joshmv
Anybody trading on all the US news this morning?
09-04-2007 06:38 AM
Music_Producer
09-05-2007 04:29 PM
Hey Josh.. hope you traded today :) Made some good pips on the UK Services PMI, the ADP report and the pending home sales report. There was plenty of time and retracements to get in on these trades.. we eventually saw a 110 pip gain on gbp/usd because of pmi and disappointing ADP.. but that took a few hours to register. Pending home sales report was a great one - I was watching GBP/JPY for that.. since it's most sensitive to any news about the US economy and news about the current risk environment. I remember GJ was going up.. it hit 232.80 and as soon as pending home sales came out at -12% (lol) I shorted.. I got out at 232.20 since there was resistance there.. but it did dip up to 232.05. Right now it's hovering at 232.50 or so.. nothing will happen till the London session. I'm really excited about the Sep 18 Fed meeting - I'm hoping they don't cut interest rates.. (and it looks like it although the markets are expecting a rate cut) If they don't cut.. I'll be shorting GBP/JPY with everything I have because I see it going in a free fall - 1000 to 2000 pips. Be careful trading Aussie report today.. there's two of them.. employment change and unemployment report.
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Unemployment report usually comes out as expected.. but watch out for any changes.. dont trade the spike.. digest the news and trade accordingly. Also remember that AUD/USD moves in a similar direction to all the carry pairs (GBP/JPY, USD/JPY etc) Since AUD/JPY is a big carry pair.. everytime that goes down.. AUD/USD is dragged down too. The current environment sucks for trading news at leisure.. it's great for trading GBP/JPY though.
ctrackstar
Quote:
09-05-2007 06:19 PM
Originally Posted by Music_Producer (Post 4136827) Hey Josh.. hope you traded today :) Made some good pips on the UK Services PMI, the ADP report and the pending home sales report. There was plenty of time and retracements to get in on these trades.. we eventually saw a 110 pip gain on gbp/usd because of pmi and disappointing ADP.. but that took a few hours to register. Pending home sales report was a great one - I was watching GBP/JPY for that.. since it's most sensitive to any news about the US economy and news about the current risk environment. I remember GJ was going up.. it hit 232.80 and as soon as pending home sales came out at -12% (lol) I shorted.. I got out at 232.20 since there was resistance there.. but it did dip up to 232.05. Right now it's hovering at 232.50 or so.. nothing will happen till the London session. I'm really excited about the Sep 18 Fed meeting - I'm hoping they don't cut interest rates.. (and it looks like it although the markets are expecting a rate cut) If they don't cut.. I'll be shorting GBP/JPY with everything I have because I see it going in a free fall - 1000 to 2000 pips. Be careful trading Aussie report today.. there's two of them.. employment change and unemployment report. Unemployment report usually comes out as expected.. but watch out for any changes.. dont trade the spike.. digest the news and trade accordingly. Also remember that AUD/USD moves in a similar direction to all the carry pairs (GBP/JPY, USD/JPY etc) Since AUD/JPY is a big carry pair.. everytime that goes down.. AUD/USD is dragged down too. The current environment sucks for trading news at leisure.. it's great for trading GBP/JPY though.
Thanks for that info. It helps me decipher in the real world what im reading. I recently nished a basic forex book that just gives an overview and im going to grab some economic text books to refresh my head on my classes. Im learning the fundamentals while I have the chart up. I gure if I see lines move up and down for a while something will click. After I learn the fundamentals ill start practicing the technical side of it. Then just try to take them both into account. You think this is a good way to go about learning it? Im a pretty fast book reader and can push out 2-3 a day but I told my self to limit what I take in and just reinforce it.
joshmv
Hey MP, I didn't actually trade today, but I was watching the charts when it happened.
09-05-2007 06:38 PM
Right now I'm learning a couple different methods, and that's taking away from my news watching, which I did for quite a while after originally reading through the thread. As you said, I think trading news has gotten really difcult for beginners, so I gured I better become uent in a couple different strategies before putting
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my real money on the line. I'm currently learning to trade with the long term trends correctly, swing trading with different indicators, and carry trading. All of the things I'm learning will actually t into one overall strategy, and anything I learn, including news trading, is going to help out with that in one way or another along the way. By the time that interest rate decision comes out I will be trading with real money, so we will have to discuss that more as the time approaches. Are you still just doing news trading, or are you expanding? I'm guessing you are experienced enough to know how to trade almost all of the news events at this point, but I've heard it's getting tough for even the most seasoned traders. Thanks for your insight!
Music_Producer
Still sticking to fundamentals and news reports josh :)
09-05-2007 06:47 PM
I traded the aussie employment report right now.. it spiked up about 35 pips.. and then retraced to 0.822. I bought a huge lot.. sold it at 0.8230... 8 pips.. but 2 million lots so $1600 prot. Notice how it's giving up all the gains.. because GJ is still heavy.. so is AJ (aud/jpy) If none of this carry trade unwinding business was going on.. aussie would have gone up a nice 80 pips or so. I was even thinking of shorting aud/usd at the top.. and I should have.. considering that it's dropped to 0.8215. Next trade will be UK interest rate decision - doubt they will do anything but I'll be ready in the event they do.
Music_Producer
09-05-2007 06:52 PM
ctrack.. technicals are good I guess.. but I don't use those. Somehow I always end up laughing at tech traders - a good example was today's pending home sales report. Most traders were long on GJ (since it was rising up as soon as the DOW opened) GJ shot from 232.30 to 232.60 and kept going up so everyone jumped in (candle has turned upward.. tech indicators etc) And then home sales came in.. *wham* everyone's stop loss got hit. Lol.. sorry.. I can't help laughing.. but.. NEVER enter a trade based on technicals before a news report is due. You never know when it can go against you. I am not entering any GJ or GU trades tonight until after the UK rate decision.. no matter how tempting. Check out forexfactory.com GJ thread.. everyone went short an hour ago.. (at 232.20 i think) .. it went down 20 pips.. and then went all the way up to 232.75.. hitting stop losses. Whatever tech trading I've done.. I've had 50-50 chances of prot+loss. For me, personally, I don't like wasting my time waiting to see what happens. With fundamental reports.. I *know* what's going to happen
ctrackstar
09-05-2007 07:58 PM
Yea I heard about that as being a mistake when trading technicals and not looking at news. Also for people who would like to be able to decipher the news and what it actual means heres free MIT coursework:
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http://ocw.mit.edu/OcwWeb/web/course....htm#Economics I mean we dont all need deep understandings im sure but Im sure theres a lot of courses there that will help. Also from what I hear MIT is a good college but that can just be a rumor ;) . I heard that knowing both fundamentals and technicals is good. I myself have dedicated myself to forex so I will have to master it one way or another. Eventually ill nd my perfect system. I looked at forex once long ago but because of scams didnt get far. Luckily on one of my tech sites I met someone who was in it because he actually does auto trading and uses CPU power to crunch numbers. Hes a full time trader and actually wrote the program thats crunching. Ill just have pile up the books, watch the news and see what the chart does. Then one day ill nd myself :cool:
ctrackstar
09-05-2007 08:02 PM
I also wanted to point out that there are more courses in that link. I just linked you the Economic ones. So if you wanted you can learn mathematics or computer science. Or if nuclear science and brain and cognitive sciences is your thing have at it :)
Music_Producer
09-05-2007 08:34 PM
And it's those automated trading models or various computerized strategies that have also caused the biggest losses and bankruptcies.. read up about various hedge funds losses.. Bear Sterns trading methods, etc. The most common trading pattern is DOW and GBP/JPY. Both are strongly co-related. However in the last few trading times, that pattern has been broken. All the traders have switched off their trading strategies because the markets are clearly driving on fundamentals right now. Fundamental trading + technicals is the best - because you can enter a trade with more condence. However, it's easy to be tempted by a technical indicator.. especially when fundamental reports don't come out every hour or so.
Music_Producer
09-07-2007 05:49 AM
Tell me you guys traded this one! NFP came out -4K (expected 110K) I mean.. sheesh! What a deviation! LMAO.. I'm still reeling from this one.. Got tons of pips on GBP/USD .. it's still rising.. and I shorted GJ .. showing resistance at 232.. but I'm sure it will go lower.. and the DOW should plummet. Crazy crazy crazy.. I think the recession has begun.
~Shard~
09-07-2007 06:31 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Music_Producer (Post 4147081) Tell me you guys traded this one! NFP came out -4K (expected 110K) I mean.. sheesh! What a deviation! LMAO.. I'm still reeling from this one.. Got tons of pips on GBP/USD .. it's still rising.. and I shorted GJ .. showing resistance at 232.. but I'm sure it will go lower.. and the DOW should plummet. Crazy crazy crazy.. I think the recession has begun.
You bet Music_Producer! After a quiet summer, it looks like I'm back! ;) :D Well, at least reports like this one sure make me feel back in the game... :D Traded EURUSD due to the smaller spread and also because GU is a lot more volatile. Good for making more money off it, however when it comes to NFP, I'm not sure I need the extra volatility. ;) Anyway, got in late at 1.3731 but rode it up to 1.3768, so 37 pips! :eek: Obviously could have had more, but I'll take it. Traded a $100K lot only though, again, due to it being NFP - I don't like the potential of whipsawing around with larger lots. ;) Yep, this could nally be the start of a down-turn. The whole sub-prime mess is nally starting to spill over into the job market and elsewhere. And now the Feds are not only going to cut rates (idiots) but might be forced to do it sooner than Sept 18. This will exacerbate ination and cause mroe problems. Good thing I put a short on the NDAQ100 and S&P500 last week... :D Oh, and Gold is performing great as well. I haven't spoke about it here lately but I entered my seasonality play on it a little while ago and it's nally starting to take off. This USD weakness will only improve the situation as well. :) Hope everyone else caught a piece of this trade - it was a great one! :cool:
ctrackstar
I watched what happened during it to see what it would do to price :(
09-07-2007 02:05 PM
Ive been reading mostly. I just got trading in the zone. Then its on to some Tom de mark books. Patience is key :)
~Shard~
09-07-2007 03:03 PM
Absolutely, patience is the key. There will always be another trade, so it's best to take things slow, don't force things (i.e. trade for the sake of trading or trade based on speculation/emotion), and learn. There's no substitute for experience! :cool:
joshmv
Ya, that job report was a shocker, and an easy trade.
09-07-2007 08:12 PM
I'm in mourning a little bit because it's taking forever for my funds to clear in Oanda and I was planning on getting long in the Euro about 175 pips ago :mad:
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Anyways, I'm wondering what you guys think the reaction is going to be to the feds cut interest rates (whenever that comes). It looks like it's coming in the very near future, and the only question is whether it will be .25 or .5%.
~Shard~
Quote:
09-07-2007 11:02 PM
Originally Posted by joshmv (Post 4150800) Ya, that job report was a shocker, and an easy trade. I'm in mourning a little bit because it's taking forever for my funds to clear in Oanda and I was planning on getting long in the Euro about 175 pips ago :mad: Anyways, I'm wondering what you guys think the reaction is going to be to the feds cut interest rates (whenever that comes). It looks like it's coming in the very near future, and the only question is whether it will be .25 or .5%.
I understand your frustration josh, but keep in mind there is always another trade to be made. If you want to feel bad over missed trades, then start with the year that you were born and think about all the trades you could have been in on over the past couple of decades! :eek: ;) :D If US interest rates do indeed get cut (which is fundamentally the opposite of what the US needs to do so address ination, etc. concerns) the USD will tank. No offense to anyone but man am I glad I'm not living in the States right now - the economy there is in a world of hurt on so many levels and due to so many factors... and it's only going to get worse before it gets better... Ah well, what do I care, I'll be proting from it all... :eek: :p ;) :D
Music_Producer
09-07-2007 11:56 PM
Hey Shard! Good to see you back again! :) You still want to buy real estate in Las Vegas? ;) Yes, patience is required in this business.. but not when the trend is against you. Don't hold on to a position if all the fundamentals say completely the opposite. Sometimes it's hard to close a losing position so you tend to hold on to it.. hoping it will recover. It may recover.. but by that time you'll probably face a margin call and your position will be closed for a loss. And then in an hour.. the currency pair will go back to where you initially opened the position! Happens all the time. Don't overleverage your position - brokers love it when customers do that. People tend to put 90% of their funds in one trade.. which is kinda crazy. This morning I was very tempted to put most of my funds on the GBP/JPY short trade.. had I done so I would have made enough money to buy a house.. but the Feds could have announced a surprise rate cut.. and the position could have gone against me.. effectively blowing up my account. Like Shard said.. there will always be trade opportunities.. don't despair. Again on the patience factor - had I held on to my gbp/jpy short.. I would have made 250+ pips as it did keep falling.. I mean with that NFP report it was obvious it would. But you always, always have to keep in mind that anything can happen.. for instance:
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A surprise fed rate cut or intervention by the bank of japan (to sell the yen.. so usd/jpy doesn't fall too much) Take your prot, and be happy. I'm more than happy that I got some good pips this morning.. am I upset that I didn't make more? Nah.. I'll keep making them anyway. There's no rush. Then there are people who think that a currency pair can't fall too much.. on forexfactory there was this one chap who actually went long on GBP/JPY an hour after the NFP! He thought it would go to 233 (after it dropped to 232) NEVER be foolish like that.. he probably blew up his account if he didn't have a stop loss. I think a 25 bps rate cut on Sep 18 is fully priced in. Obviously I don't think they should cut rates (I've been waiting for a hike lol) If they don't cut rates, the stock markets will probably collapse (maybe on sep 18 only but who knows) Then everything depends on the statements the Fed comes out with - if they are hawkish.. GBP/USD will fall.. GBP/JPY will be doomed.. stock markets will go to hell, etc. If they're dovish.. I don't know.. you might see pairs jumping around a bit. If they do cut by 25 bps.. since that's already priced in.. you might not see a lot of action.
Iscariot
09-08-2007 12:09 AM
I'm unsure if this has been asked before -- this is a very long thread -- but if someone were interested in learning more and perhaps getting "into" Forex and other online trading, what would be a good starting point?

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nhallmark
Quote:
09-08-2007 12:35 PM
Originally Posted by Iscariot (Post 4151585) I'm unsure if this has been asked before -- this is a very long thread -- but if someone were interested in learning more and perhaps getting "into" Forex and other online trading, what would be a good starting point?
www.forexfactory.com www.investopedia.com www.babypips.com And get "Trading in the Zone" by Mark Douglas. Hope that helps, Nathan
ctrackstar
Quote:
09-08-2007 10:49 PM
Originally Posted by nhallmark (Post 4153424) www.forexfactory.com www.investopedia.com www.babypips.com And get "Trading in the Zone" by Mark Douglas. Hope that helps, Nathan
Yea these sources have been great for me. The only one I havent spent much time on is investopedia but I've been too enthralled with FF. Also I started to read "The Candlestick Course" by Steve Nison which I feel is a very good way to break into understanding candlestick charting. Its good to build a strong foundation. Even if you are going to be a fundamentalist trader you may nd some strengths in technicals. The thing I've found most interesting about currency traders who have been successful and made it to the "elite 5%" is that they seem very self actualized. You would think that these guys would be arrogant :eek: but they just seem so laid back and helpful. To me that is a good motivator to know that something about being successful at this can turn you into a great person.
nhallmark
Quote:
09-09-2007 11:17 AM
Originally Posted by ctrackstar (Post 4155319) The thing I've found most interesting about currency traders who have been successful and made it to the "elite 5%" is that they seem very self actualized. You would think that these guys would be arrogant :eek: but they just seem so laid back and helpful. To me that is a good motivator to know that something about being successful at this can turn you into a great person.
That comes from the market kicking your a$$ so many times that you stop and learn how to do it right :p I know what you mean though. It's cool that so many are so willing to help.
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Hey, MP and Shard, what's the vote on whether the JPY pairs will tank this week after NFP and the fed not cutting rates(yet...lol)?
ctrackstar
Quote:
09-09-2007 01:35 PM
Originally Posted by nhallmark (Post 4156940) That comes from the market kicking your a$$ so many times that you stop and learn how to do it right :p I know what you mean though. It's cool that so many are so willing to help. Hey, MP and Shard, what's the vote on whether the JPY pairs will tank this week after NFP and the fed not cutting rates(yet...lol)?
Yea Im trying to feel as though I have gotten my :eek: :p before I even trade. Im glad there are so many examples of losses out there and its already pounded in my head to be disciplined. Ive read some on technical analysis and reading through the thread I understand what shard is talking about. Although I am only at page 40 of the thread. Ill be actually starting my two demo accounts monday. Ill have to reset them though because ive done some blind trading just to get the feel of it all. Im going to use one demo account that I will use as if it was my money and the other Im going to use to practice perhaps all news trades just so I can experience the worth or worthlessness of them. I may also play with some technical indicators on the "play" account to put into use what im learning. Also for newbies reading this like myself if you didnt read the thread or did you will catch onto something MP has said about learning. That was that he wrote down the news and what happened as he went along. I think a good idea is to have a tabbed notebook ready and have the different types of news in the tabs. Do the trade in your demo account and write down what happened. I even suggest this to you educated noobs ;). To help you prepare for a news report read over your notebook. Take into account what happened to the market when this or that happened. Reading the posts what MP does is simple but what sets him apart is his process time. He spends more time clicking buttons then he does actually deciphering whats going on. Invest in yourself. If you really want to take this serious you must do the extra things to give you an edge. I own my own business and deal with regular stocks but upon learning about forex and seeing how the lifestyle is I decided its perfect for me(irregular sleeping, gambling like excitement, ability to make a prot at certain time of day and sleep in a hammock the rest) If I nd myself a successful trader and get to the point of some of these guys Ill have to y out and buy a beer for the contributors of this thread. Hopefully one day I can bring my own style to the table and help you guys prot in other ways. Also I sent an invite to get part of the .mac group. If you didnt get it let me know Ill PM you my address.
joshmv
MP, if you were going to hold a trade for a while, which pair would be your favorite right now?
09-09-2007 01:58 PM
ctrackstar
Im on page 55 so I haven't got all the way through so sorry if this gets answered later on.
09-09-2007 06:29 PM
1. I see problems with latency which can be at fault of the actual broker but at the same time if you were making some decent money wouldnt it be just to invest in a T3 line. Im actually surprised I read MP trading on a laptop. I play games on my computer and I would never go wireless if it was a FPS. I would want as much reduced lag as possible. 2. It was mentioned when ordering the Bloomberg package for $1750 that you get a direct line to them? What exactly does that mean. Im assuming it means a VPN . Then it goes back to why not invest into a sturdier connection. Again sorry if this was discusses later on I should be caught up by tonight.
ctrackstar
09-10-2007 12:20 AM
Well I just got done reading the "trading chronicles". It was intense. I laughed, I cried and I was held in suspense. Its some great reading I dedicated my weekend to it. I shouldve printed itout because its very hard to read fast on the computer. Well time to get busy.
Music_Producer
Quote:
09-10-2007 01:42 AM
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Originally Posted by joshmv (Post 4157504) MP, if you were going to hold a trade for a while, which pair would be your favorite right now?
I wouldn't hold any long term trades at all.. especially right now.. but if I really had to do it - it would be AUD/JPY. Nice interest, aussie economy is solid (unlike the US) Fundamentally Aussie is very strong.. it's just the carry trade fears that are driving aud/jpy down. In the event of a massive drop down.. aud/jpy has the potential to go down 3000 pips.. while gbp/jpy has the potential to go down 10,000 pips. So I feel 'safer' with aud/jpy. Nathan, right now jpy pairs all seem to be looking downward.. if Feds don't cut, AND BoJ hikes.. lol.. party time. If Feds hike and boj hike.. then you know what to do right? (short your house, car, pet, etc on GJ)
nhallmark
Quote:
09-10-2007 01:54 AM
Originally Posted by Music_Producer (Post 4159431) Nathan, right now jpy pairs all seem to be looking downward.. if Feds don't cut, AND BoJ hikes.. lol.. party time. If Feds hike and boj hike.. then you know what to do right? (short your house, car, pet, etc on GJ)
ROFL I was hoping they would get started tonight but it seems like london is just ignoring NFP. Also, I read on FF that the overnight rate is already around 5.00% but they haven't "ofcially" cut rates...whatever. Im just tired of this BS like last week where we're stuck in an 80-100 pip range(for E/J at least).
nhallmark
All the hedge fund managers are protesting... http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...5&postcount=17 LOL...you guys gotta read it :p
09-10-2007 04:12 PM
ctrackstar
Quote:
09-10-2007 06:17 PM
Originally Posted by nhallmark (Post 4162605) All the hedge fund managers are protesting... http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...5&postcount=17 LOL...you guys gotta read it :p
that was a great read
Music_Producer
Quote:
09-10-2007 10:41 PM
Originally Posted by nhallmark (Post 4162605) All the hedge fund managers are protesting... http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...5&postcount=17 LOL...you guys gotta read it :p
LMAO. What a bunch of sorry babies - so the government should cover their a$$es for bad investment decisions? :rolleyes: Very funny..
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ctrack.. I use a laptop because currenex operates even with a 20 kbps connection.. yep I've tried. CMC markets would show a 'lag' time of 250ms or more even when I had directly connected my ethernet modem to the macbook.. just shows how much crap they were giving. A wireless connection works ne with any broker.. Bloomberg probably does not want to take any chances of customers suing them for non-performance in the event their (the customer's) internet connection has disconnects or something of that sort. With a direct line, there is no way that anyone can make up a story about Bloomberg being slow.. and of course, to offer the most stable and fastest connection for news. Reuters has been working great for me, but some reports lag.. which is why most professional traders use both platforms.. which would be overkill for me.
ctrackstar
Quote:
09-11-2007 02:19 AM
Originally Posted by Music_Producer (Post 4163862) LMAO. What a bunch of sorry babies - so the government should cover their a$$es for bad investment decisions? :rolleyes: Very funny.. ctrack.. I use a laptop because currenex operates even with a 20 kbps connection.. yep I've tried. CMC markets would show a 'lag' time of 250ms or more even when I had directly connected my ethernet modem to the macbook.. just shows how much crap they were giving. A wireless connection works ne with any broker.. Bloomberg probably does not want to take any chances of customers suing them for non-performance in the event their (the customer's) internet connection has disconnects or something of that sort. With a direct line, there is no way that anyone can make up a story about Bloomberg being slow.. and of course, to offer the most stable and fastest connection for news. Reuters has been working great for me, but some reports lag.. which is why most professional traders use both platforms.. which would be overkill for me.
So im assuming the new platform has been working out for you as far as news goes? Haven't seen much activity lately.
Music_Producer
Quote:
09-11-2007 03:08 AM
Originally Posted by ctrackstar (Post 4164247) So im assuming the new platform has been working out for you as far as news goes? Haven't seen much activity lately.
Works great.. but you have to be very fast. I got screwed today on the UK trade balance.. an example of how 'patience' can get you in the wrong place! UK trade balance came out much worse than expected at -7.1 Billion. So I shorted GBP/USD at 2.0255.. it dipped to 2.0245.. but I didn't cover the short since I knew it was a bad number. Bloody thing moved all the way up to 2.0307 in about 45 minutes. :mad: Absolutely surprised, I went back to see if they made any kind of revision to the trade balance. Turns out that the trade balance had been 'distorted' by errors in oil pricing. WTF? Lol.. that;s what I get for just looking at the number and not the accompanying statement. I was about to close my trade when I noticed that the Debt Management OFce in the UK had auctioned off some units, and that the bids received were 'disappointing' I saw the pound drop to 2.0300 and I shorted with a bigger lot.. closed it at 2.0285. So I broke even.. with a 3 pip loss.. which was all right. It's rare that a currency pair moves in the opposite direction of that of the report.. in this case, I missed out on that explanation for the wide decit. I should have closed my position for that 10 pip prot.. oh well, there's always another time. :p
ctrackstar
Quote:
09-11-2007 05:30 AM
Originally Posted by Music_Producer (Post 4164334) Works great.. but you have to be very fast. I got screwed today on the UK trade balance.. an example of how 'patience' can get you in the wrong place!
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UK trade balance came out much worse than expected at -7.1 Billion. So I shorted GBP/USD at 2.0255.. it dipped to 2.0245.. but I didn't cover the short since I knew it was a bad number. Bloody thing moved all the way up to 2.0307 in about 45 minutes. :mad: Absolutely surprised, I went back to see if they made any kind of revision to the trade balance. Turns out that the trade balance had been 'distorted' by errors in oil pricing. WTF? Lol.. that;s what I get for just looking at the number and not the accompanying statement. I was about to close my trade when I noticed that the Debt Management OFce in the UK had auctioned off some units, and that the bids received were 'disappointing' I saw the pound drop to 2.0300 and I shorted with a bigger lot.. closed it at 2.0285. So I broke even.. with a 3 pip loss.. which was all right. It's rare that a currency pair moves in the opposite direction of that of the report.. in this case, I missed out on that explanation for the wide decit. I should have closed my position for that 10 pip prot.. oh well, there's always another time. :p
The one thing I notice about your trades. I read that you got a lose and then I wait to see how you recover it. Always amazes me how you recover this stuff.
Music_Producer
Quote:
09-11-2007 06:51 AM
Originally Posted by ctrackstar (Post 4164604) The one thing I notice about your trades. I read that you got a lose and then I wait to see how you recover it. Always amazes me how you recover this stuff.
You always keep resistance and support levels on your chart.. and the 5SMA. Retracements usually hit the 30 min or 1 hour 5 SMA and then proceed back on track. An hour ago, GBP/JPY started rushing up.. it hit 231.60 (which is a b level - so good resistance there) As soon as it hit that level, it started dropping. So I shorted it, for a quick scalp.. I was expecting it to fall to the 30 min 5 SMA which was around 230.95. It eventually went down to 231.07.. where I exited.. because it didn't look like it was going to hit the 5sma level. Plus, Bernanke's speech is coming up today. Every spike, or drop.. always retraces. You can see it running out of steam.. you have to get used to it. Of course, you do have to look at any news event which is causing that spike/drop.. if there is no news.. then yes, it retraces.. if there is.. then determine how strong/important that report is. For e.g. a surprise interest rate hike/cut.. the pair will shoot 100-150 pips.. and will never retrace.
joshmv
Just traded real money for the rst time, closed out with 9 cents prot, :eek::D
09-11-2007 10:21 AM
Music_Producer
Quote:
09-12-2007 01:36 AM
Originally Posted by joshmv (Post 4165643) Just traded real money for the rst time, closed out with 9 cents prot, :eek::D
Nice! That's how I started.. my rst prot was 1 cent.. and I went out to celebrate lol. UK earnings report and claimant count was so easy to trade.. in a funny way. Both came out good.. and oddly.. GBP/USD dropped to 2.0320 (from 2.0330) I guess people were expecting it to come out bad.. so I got in at a great price.. 2.0320.. and got out at 2.0345. It's dropped a bit now, but that might be prot taking. Also some news about a UK hedge fund losing 25% of their account.. that's weighing in on the pound. With all these bad reports everywhere it's become a pain to trade news reports.. usually we could have seen 30-40 pips move.. but there have been idiotic 10-12 pip moves.. and then retraces.. trades whipping around.. nuts :eek: I can't wait for this carry trade sob story to be over already!
zorgborder
09-12-2007 01:45 AM
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I've got 13 cents :)
Music_Producer
Quote:
09-12-2007 01:51 AM
Originally Posted by zorgborder (Post 4168870) I've got 13 cents :)
Hey you're making more than me :) Pound now at 2.0365 (ahhhh why did I get out at 2.0345 :mad:)
~Shard~
09-12-2007 07:35 AM
I've been trialing a new method for scalping this past week and so far it's worked fairly well. 1 minute trades for the most part, 3-4 pips is the goal, and I've been fairly consistent. Made 12 pips on AUDUSD alone last night and another 7 on EURJPY. Potentially a nice supplement to news trading. :cool: So, is it time yet to pile onto the carry trade again? :p ;) :D
joshmv
Quote:
09-12-2007 11:15 AM
Originally Posted by ~Shard~ (Post 4169557) I've been trialing a new method for scalping this past week and so far it's worked fairly well. 1 minute trades for the most part, 3-4 pips is the goal, and I've been fairly consistent. Made 12 pips on AUDUSD alone last night and another 7 on EURJPY. Potentially a nice supplement to news trading. :cool: So, is it time yet to pile onto the carry trade again? :p ;) :D
Scalping is all I've done since I went live, mainly because I haven't seen any news that I knew well enough to trade, and I couldn't stay up for the GBP announcement. I am on the positive side, but I need to make sure that I only trade when it is abundantly clear what SHOULD happen. Occasionally I nd myself guessing the tops or bottoms, and I need to be patient, and wait for the major indicators to come into play, that way I know the bigger players will be going in the same direction as I am. What's next on everyones radar as far as news releases are concerned? Also what are your thoughts on the state of carry trades at this point, obviously most have had a strong week, but it's a strange trend overall.
nhallmark
Well, its game over for me...lol :p ...made some mistakes nancially. It was fun while it lasted though! Good luck guys ;)
09-12-2007 12:02 PM
~Shard~
Quote:
09-12-2007 12:48 PM
Originally Posted by joshmv (Post 4170558) I am on the positive side, but I need to make sure that I only trade when it is abundantly clear what SHOULD happen. Occasionally I nd myself guessing the tops or bottoms, and I need to be patient, and wait for the major indicators to come into play, that way I know the bigger players will be going in the same direction as I am.
You're absolutely right - blind speculation in the markets is a very bad thing and will get you in a lot of trouble. You essentially end up guessing and if that's the game you want to play you might as well just guess what number is going to hit on the roulette wheel at the
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casino. No one can know for sure what will happen or else we'd all be rich, but what we can do is try to even the odds and make the most informed decisions possible at the time. It takes a lot of discipline, trust me. :cool:
Quote:
Originally Posted by joshmv (Post 4170558) What's next on everyones radar as far as news releases are concerned?
US retail sales and production/productivity. Then of course next week is the big rate announcement. Lots of action then I'm guessing.
Quote:
Originally Posted by nhallmark (Post 4170756) Well, its game over for me...lol :p ...made some mistakes nancially. It was fun while it lasted though! Good luck guys ;)
Nathan, I'm sorry to hear that. :( You do not have to elaborate of course, but I am curious, did your forex account blow up or does this have something to do with your nancial situation in general which has resulted in forex trading not being an option for you anymore? Either way, I'm sorry to hear that - as one long-standing member of the thread to another it was great to have you around and I wish you nothing but success in the future. Take care friend. :cool:
nhallmark
Quote:
09-12-2007 02:32 PM
Originally Posted by ~Shard~ (Post 4170946) Nathan, I'm sorry to hear that. :( You do not have to elaborate of course, but I am curious, did your forex account blow up or does this have something to do with your nancial situation in general which has resulted in forex trading not being an option for you anymore? Either way, I'm sorry to hear that - as one long-standing member of the thread to another it was great to have you around and I wish you nothing but success in the future. Take care friend. :cool:
You guys warned me and others on this thread not to rely on forex to pay the bills...but I did it anyway:o So, yeah, I "blew" my account on bills lol :p
joshmv
Quote:
09-12-2007 02:51 PM
Originally Posted by ~Shard~ (Post 4170946) US retail sales and production/productivity. Then of course next week is the big rate announcement. Lots of action then I'm guessing.
Are you still trading on the initial spike, and have you tried trading the retracement spike afterwards? I'm still with Oanda, so with the crazy spreads, I might sit back and try and trade the second spike on that one to see how it goes. If it's only a 10 pip spread or something I'll denitely try and trade with the news, but as big as the announcement is, I'm guessing it will be large.
ctrackstar
09-12-2007 05:43 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nhallmark (Post 4170756) Well, its game over for me...lol :p ...made some mistakes nancially. It was fun while it lasted though! Good luck guys ;)
I havent had the pleasure of blowing my rst account. From judging what I've seen all the best investors blew there accounts. The worst they blew it the better it seemed they came back as long as they didnt quit. Time to demo your :eek: off :cool:
Music_Producer
09-12-2007 05:56 PM
Got a good 25 pips on NZD retail sales report.. this was again, slow and easy.. I like NZD for this reason.. shorted 5 minutes after the report came out.. at 0.7110.. and took prot at 0.7085. Nathan, what happened? :( PM me man, was it your dukas account? I hope you didn't get caught up in technical trading the GBP/JPY.. I only trade GJ on important US reports (especially during this risk averse environment) .. otherwise I don't touch it. That pair moves 100-200 pips in seconds. You can build your account back up, slowly - it will take time.. but no losses are permanent mate. Every time I deviate from my strategy.. I get punished for it, so I stick to what I know and do best. Shard, no carry trades happening yet - it's almost 2 months now since the carries got busted.. and they aren't anywhere back to their original levels.. just shows that market condence is pretty shaky. Everyone's waiting for Sep 18 - till then markets might range or stay at (unless something important happens before sep 18)
~Shard~
Quote:
09-12-2007 09:14 PM
Originally Posted by joshmv (Post 4171543) Are you still trading on the initial spike, and have you tried trading the retracement spike afterwards?
Nah, no retracement trading for me, not yet at least. I've toyed around with it a bit, but there's something that still bugs me abut trading it, as I feel it's speculative trading and not trading based on the facts, even though I know the probabilities surrounding retracements are somewhat valid. :o
Quote:
Originally Posted by Music_Producer (Post 4172267) Shard, no carry trades happening yet - it's almost 2 months now since the carries got busted.. and they aren't anywhere back to their original levels.. just shows that market condence is pretty shaky. Everyone's waiting for Sep 18 - till then markets might range or stay at (unless something important happens before sep 18)
Yep - next week I might even take a day off work on purpose just to be around to day trade. :cool:
joshmv
09-12-2007 09:42 PM
I haven't seen much discussion of it elsewhere, so I might be off-base, but I'm seeing a pretty strong trendline on the AUD/JPY pair. If you look at the 3 or 4 hour chart, you can take a trendline from the tops, and it comes down as a resistance zone a little bit above the current price. What do you guys think about that? Sorry no picture, don't have enough time to gure that out right now :p
Music_Producer
09-14-2007 05:38 AM
38 pips on US retail sales.. had a feeling number would come out -ve. I like -ve numbers :p Anyone care to guess which pair I traded?
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joshmv
With the lower spread, and the bigger action, I'll go ahead and say USD/JPY?
09-14-2007 05:56 AM
Music_Producer
Quote:
09-14-2007 06:02 AM
Originally Posted by joshmv (Post 4179245) With the lower spread, and the bigger action, I'll go ahead and say USD/JPY?
Ding ding ding! You win a beer ;) The reason I went with UJ was because GBP/USD was heavily beaten up today.. two bad news Northern Rock forced to borrow from bank of england.. and the house prices in the UK dropped sharply. So I wasn't too sure about GBP's strength.. and I was right, it moved up only 20 pips on the news Today was a fantastic opportunity to witness fundamentals vs technicals. Check out te GBP/JPY thread on forexfactory.. even *after* the bad news about northern rock came out.. people went long on GJ based on technicals. :rolleyes: Needless to say there were losses of 100 pips or more (I'm sure some hopefuls kept holding on till they got a margin call) Again, techs are great for determining supports, resistance.. and possible retracement levels.. but for God's sake.. if there's signicant news staring at you in the face, don't ignore it!
~Shard~
09-14-2007 06:15 AM
Very well said Music_Producer, and well done on the trade! I only managed 9 pips myself, but that's better than nothing. Plus I'm still with CMC, so enough said... :o ;) Getting back to you point though, yes, technicals have their time and place, but I would never trade based on technicals during a news announcement - that's just plain silly. Technicals might (rightly or wrongly) move the markets at times, but fundamentals, are, well, fundamentals. You can't argue with them. :p :cool: That being said, I technical traded EURJPY last night due to some nice setups and scalped 7 pips in total. ;) Trades were only open for a few minute, in and out... Well, I'm done trading for this week, but next week should be loads of fun. I'm debating taking Tuesday off from work and seeing if I can make more money off day trading the US rate announcement than I would have at work. :p ;) :D Have a great weekend everybody and happy trading! :cool:
joshmv
Do you guys think the consumer numbers coming out at 10:00 ET will be able to move the markets much?
09-14-2007 06:28 AM
nhallmark
Here's another laugh if you guys haven't seen this yet...
09-14-2007 08:26 PM
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joshmv
I'm getting ready to trade the announcements on Tuesday, what's everyones game plan? Which pair are you going to trade on? What's your move for 0 bps, 25 bps, 50 bps?
09-16-2007 10:24 PM
~Shard~
Quote:
09-16-2007 10:29 PM
Originally Posted by joshmv (Post 4192312) I'm getting ready to trade the announcements on Tuesday, what's everyones game plan? Which pair are you going to trade on? What's your move for 0 bps, 25 bps, 50 bps?
I'll bet 25 bps. Potentially trading GBPUSD, USDJPY and GBPJPY. :cool:
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joshmv
Quote:
09-17-2007 08:34 PM
Originally Posted by ~Shard~ (Post 4192333) I'll bet 25 bps. Potentially trading GBPUSD, USDJPY and GBPJPY. :cool:
What do you think about trading the AUD/JPY, since it moves much the same as the USD/JPY and may have a very low spread throughout the announcements? Also, what exactly would you do if it moved 25bps since MP was saying he thought that was probably already priced in. By the way, are you trading the other announcements earlier in the day, or just leaving it alone until the interest rate news?
Music_Producer
09-18-2007 05:51 AM
25 pips on UK CPI report, 18 on US PPI report (both GBP/USD) and 75 pips on GBP/JPY (US PPI report) :D I went long on GJ after the terrible US PPI.. because that basically guaranteed that the Feds should cut rates. And I love it when I'm right.. GJ shot up 100 pips. Now I'm staying out till the rate decision.. I'm VERY scared to trade this one. Your trading platform will most likely freeze or do weird things. I really don't want to give my pips away.. lol. The only possible trading scenario I have is - if markets do not cut, or if markets cut by 50 bps. I don't know what a 25 bps cut will do markets have priced that in a month ago.. in fact, 40% of traders are even pricing in a 50 bps cut. So I would love to see no rate cut (the ultimate prize would be a rate hike.. I think I'll be vilied for this comment) If it's a 25 bps cut.. I'm staying out until the Fed statement.. and see what their language is. If they talk about cutting rates again.. then I'll buy GJ.. if not .. or they talk about ination being a concern.. I'm staying out. There will be wild swings on this one, so do NOT trade a lot of units. I am, myself using a minimal lot.. not because I don't trust my trading.. but I don't trust the trading conditions. Every trader - professional, amateur and his pet cat are going to be waiting for this rate announcement. Josh.. I don't know about AUD/JPY.. but if news is good for carries.. then AUD/JPY will go up with GBP/JPY. GBP/JPY moves the most though.. like 100 pips in 2 seconds. :eek:

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Britguy
Mp, whats your thoughts on a 50bps cut? What will you trade?
09-18-2007 10:19 AM
~Shard~
Quote:
09-18-2007 10:21 AM
Originally Posted by Britguy (Post 4200668) Mp, whats your thoughts on a 50bps cut? What will you trade?
Short USD against everything. :p ;) :D
OceanView
MP,
09-18-2007 10:58 AM
Like you, I will be waiting to trade after the initial spike. Although most people have an idea of the rate cut, the language will be more of a determining factor of future actions which will have more of an impact on the markets.
Music_Producer
09-18-2007 11:22 AM
I got 45 pips on GJ after a spread of 30 pips :mad: Right now, it's a mess.. the $ is sure to be doomed now.. stupid 50 bps cut - can't believe the retards. Shard, I'm moving to canada lol GJ has dropped after hitting highs. markets might look at this as 'crap.. the economy must be doing real bad for such a huge rate cut' I'm gonna let this one settle a bit..
OceanView
My trades did not go through! :mad: I am waiting for it to settle a bit.
09-18-2007 11:25 AM
Music_Producer
09-18-2007 11:29 AM
Ok stay out LOL.. I just lost all my 45 pips.. but then made it back again. Markets are crazy right now
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joshmv
Ended up on the positive side with 35 pips on G/J, but I can't exactly take credit for that.
09-18-2007 11:33 AM
I waited for the initial reaction to pass, which drove the yen lower, and then once I saw the strong reversal I went after it and got out quickly. Not much prot since I was trading low units. I'm done until tomorrow I believe, I'm just not condent in any pair either way.
Music_Producer
09-18-2007 11:38 AM
Sweeeeeet got a 100 pips as GU and GJ rushed up. It almost hit 233 and then retraced a bit.. I'm expecting more of a retrace.. let's see if GU is willing to do that.
Music_Producer
09-18-2007 11:43 AM
Ahh, I see what caused that recent push - Feds stated that they will act more 'as needed' - means more rate cuts are coming. Quite stupid actually. This will only make the subprime mess worse. Whatever.. If the northern rock issue and UK cpi wasn't poor.. this thing would have own off - GU would have easily reached 2.0300.
~Shard~
Wow to say that this has been a wild ride is an understatement at best!
09-18-2007 11:51 AM
50bps... well that pretty much screws any hope of containing ination - especially with possible further cuts coming. The US housing situation is doomed as well. This could denitely be the beginning of a recession in the US. Glad I'm not living there! The US is screwed. Music_Producer, you're welcome here in Canada any time - I have guest room at my place ready to go. :) ;) As for myself, couldn't pull the trigger - too volatile. Was going to ride the initial spike up, but gured I has missed most of it - I was correct. Then, as you said MP, they added the caveat that they would act further as required - this drove everything back up. Yikes.
Music_Producer
09-18-2007 11:54 AM
Here's what everyone is saying on bloomberg (all the investors like jim rogers, etc) - "US is already in recesssion, a rate cut would be suicidal - will make matters worse" I think this whole cut thing was political to please the banking community and the idiot fund managers who were locked into the failing carry trades.
Music_Producer
Quote:
09-18-2007 11:57 AM
Originally Posted by ~Shard~ (Post 4201153) you're welcome here in Canada any time - I have guest room at my place ready to go. :) ;)
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Thanks for the invite mate :) I doubt my $ will be worth any CAD$ by the time I get there lol. You said it - ination is going to shoot up, everything will be more expensive - the dope buyers who can't afford mortgages.. well, they can't afford them anyways since everything else will be expensive. Short term, this might push the stock markets up - but long term I don't think it solves the problem. The Feds should have let this unwind, a correction is necessary every time there is a bubble - I'm very, very disappointed with Bernanke. He did an absolute U-turn.
~Shard~
Quote:
09-18-2007 11:57 AM
Originally Posted by Music_Producer (Post 4201172) Here's what everyone is saying on bloomberg (all the investors like jim rogers, etc) - "US is already in recesssion, a rate cut would be suicidal - will make matters worse" I think this whole cut thing was political - to please the banking community and the idiot fund managers who were locked into the failing carry trades.
They're right though - if anything the US should have raised interest rates to combat inationary pressures and the threat of a recession. Leaving them alone is bad, cutting them is horrible, but cutting them by 50 bps?!? Suicidal is a tting term in my opinion... And now with rates so low, people will throw more money into the stock markets which are fundamentally weak as it is. So not only will the markets continue to perform poorly, but more people will be investing in them and as a result more investor equity will be wiped out. This is going to get worse before it gets better. :cool:
~Shard~
09-18-2007 12:01 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Music_Producer (Post 4201187) Thanks for the invite mate :) I doubt my $ will be worth any CAD$ by the time I get there lol.
Haha, better come quick before we hit parity... :p :D

Quote:
Originally Posted by Music_Producer (Post 4201187) You said it - ination is going to shoot up, everything will be more expensive - the dope buyers who can't afford mortgages.. well, they can't afford them anyways since everything else will be expensive. Short term, this might push the stock markets up - but long term I don't think it solves the problem. The Feds should have let this unwind, a correction is necessary every time there is a bubble - I'm very, very disappointed with Bernanke. He did an absolute U-turn.
See my above post, we've said pretty much said the exact same thing (at the same time nonetheless!) ;) I can see it now: "Interest rates get slashed - now is a perfect time to buy a home as you'll get extremely low rates on your subprime mortgage! Quick, everybody buy a house!" :rolleyes:
joshmv
Are you guys trading the announcements tomorrow morning as well?
09-18-2007 01:49 PM
OceanView
Quote:
09-18-2007 02:20 PM
Originally Posted by ~Shard~ (Post 4201216) I can see it now: "Interest rates get slashed - now is a perfect time to buy a home as you'll get extremely low rates on your subprime mortgage! Quick, everybody buy a house!" :rolleyes:
Yes! Please buy my house now! Rates will be rising soon! :D In all honesty, I am sure the Fed has his reasons for cutting 50 Bps this time. It was a necessary cut. Stocks had crazy gains today which will continue till the end of the week.
Music_Producer
Quote:
09-20-2007 12:16 PM
Originally Posted by OceanView (Post 4202130) Yes! Please buy my house now! Rates will be rising soon! :D
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In all honesty, I am sure the Fed has his reasons for cutting 50 Bps this time. It was a necessary cut. Stocks had crazy gains today which will continue till the end of the week.
Not necessary at all. It was a purely political move in my opinion.. hedge funds getting distressed.. stupid investors who made stupid decisions. Yes, rate cut will help.. only in the short term. This is not going to bail out all the foreclosure folks.. not going to ease the subprime issue at all. This will make the US$ plummet and it's happening right now. Shard, we've reached parity mate :) Btw, do you plan on shorting gold later? Or do you think it's going to keep rising?
~Shard~
Quote:
09-20-2007 04:25 PM
Originally Posted by Music_Producer (Post 4213152) Not necessary at all. It was a purely political move in my opinion.. hedge funds getting distressed.. stupid investors who made stupid decisions. Yes, rate cut will help.. only in the short term. This is not going to bail out all the foreclosure folks.. not going to ease the subprime issue at all. This will make the US$ plummet - and it's happening right now.
Totally agree. As I said, this is all going to get worse before it gets better...
Quote:
Originally Posted by Music_Producer (Post 4213152) Shard, we've reached parity mate :) Btw, do you plan on shorting gold later? Or do you think it's going to keep rising?
I bought Gold contracts a little while ago but they are up signicantly now and the contract expires next week, so I think I will denitely sell and take some prots. As for shorting though, I feel like it would be going against the trend although a correction is denitely in order, even if it's just a short/temporary one. So, don't think I'll short it, but am willing to buy back in again at a lower price. ;) Have you ever thought of taking a long term forex position other than a carry trade? I'm just thinking about guys like Soros who went long on EURUSD a few years ago, and how even though there have been huge swings on a daily basis at times, the overall trend has been up and in his favor. He doesn't care about the daily news reports, NFP, etc. due to his large time horizon. I guess it still comes down to correctly predicting the direction of the markets, which is hard to do, but I even had the thought a few weeks ago, when USDCAD was at 1.03, of shorting it and just holding on until parity was hit. Ah well, hindsight is 20/20...
Music_Producer
09-21-2007 05:50 AM
Soros lost some 2 billion or more .. connected with Russian markets or so.. but that didn't bother him. I get like a $50 loss and I get edgy lol. Long term doesn't work for me, I tried it - I am always stressed out.. and checking on my position every half an hour. If I go out for a movie, I can't enjoy it.. nothing, I just keep thinking what my position is doing. :p
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Nice 20 pip prot on Canadian retail sales today. I had a camcorder in one hand to try and make a video of reuters+currenex combo.. and I had my nger on the 'sell' USD/CAD button.. because I expected Canadian retail sales to come out great. They didn't.. and because I had hat stupid camcorder in my hand.. I pressed sell right away :eek: (instead of buy) I quickly threw the camcorder.. lol.. closed my sell position (which was -$250) .. created a buy position and closed it to break even. Then the price retraced after 2-3 minutes.. down to 1.0035.. so I bought again.. and exited at 1.0050 .. phew! :D I bought on the retrace because the sales numbers were pretty bad - they were negative for the second time in a row. Let me see if my camcorder was able to record any video!
Britguy
Mp, Do you still get good execution with Capfx? Gold could go to $1000. Seems inevitable if they keep cutting rates.
09-21-2007 07:20 AM
rob5
09-21-2007 08:10 AM
Sorry if this has been asked/answered before, but I was wondering what do you guys use for charting software? Since it seems most only run on Windows (unless they are web based), I was considering purchasing Parallels and using Windows XP/Vista in Coherence mode. Thoughts?
Music_Producer
Quote:
09-24-2007 12:35 AM
Originally Posted by Britguy (Post 4217040) Mp, Do you still get good execution with Capfx? Gold could go to $1000. Seems inevitable if they keep cutting rates.
I get instant execution with market orders.. with IOC or GTC orders, it's a 50/50 situation.. my Reuters feed comes up slow on some news.. and fast on others. I'm trying to get a Bloomberg demo to see if it's faster. Gold is going nuts.. I keep kicking myself everyday for not buying it when it was $400 something. I am waiting for a pullback before buying some gold. Rob, I use oanda's charts.. I'm not much of a charting person. I tried Parallels, but coherence mode never worked. I uninstalled, re-installed, tried everything but the stupid thing refused to work. Finally installed VM
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Ware Fusion, and that has worked beautifully. I prefer VM Ware to parallels.. it's much faster and smoother, and more intuitive. Check out VT Trader charts. Get a demo account, they have some great indicators and trading systems.
Britguy
Mp, So do you get slipped a lot by using mkt orders, trying to get in before the news spike?
09-24-2007 05:15 AM
Furthermore, trading the retracement, how do you know when the price will continue in the direction of the news versus a complete reversal?
Music_Producer
Quote:
09-24-2007 06:33 AM
Originally Posted by Britguy (Post 4229842) Mp, So do you get slipped a lot by using mkt orders, trying to get in before the news spike? Furthermore, trading the retracement, how do you know when the price will continue in the direction of the news versus a complete reversal?
It depends, during the interest rate cut.. I got slipped 30 pips, which I thought was the spread but it wasn't. On some trades I don't get slipped.. some it's 5.. it really varies depending on when I click (which is again dependent on how fast reuters spits out the numbers) If I get in right before the spike, I don't get slipped. If I click while the spike happens.. I get slipped. I wish CNX had a slippage control built in their software. If the report is a signicant one, especially related to ination.. and it deviates in a big way, I know there will be no retracements. There might be a few bounces.. about 10-15 pips.. but nothing more than that. Take Canadian retail sales.. if you noticed, USD/CAD was very bearish that day (canadian $ reached parity) So the trend was down. However, the retail sales came out pretty bad - it shot up, but it retraced soon enough. Why? Because the initial trend was down.. and quite massively. It kept going up (to 1.050) and then down (to 1.010) .. did t his a couple of times. It nally stabilized and then started drifting down.. succumbing to the original trend. Had this been.. say.. a CPI report.. it wouldn't have retraced. If CPI was expected at 0.1% and it came out -0.2%.. USD/CAD would have gone up 50-60 pips.. and not retraced at all. I've seen retracements happen on NFP, except when the number is so deviated, that there is no chance for any retracing. In that case, if I miss the original move, I get in anyway.. because I know the currency pair is going to move in the direction of the spike for the next few hours (and in fact, even the next 1 or 2 days)
Britguy
MP,
09-25-2007 04:54 AM
Good info. What are the spreads on cnx before major news? Usd/cad on retail gs for example?
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Music_Producer
09-26-2007 06:05 AM
Britguy, spreads are anywhere from normal to 10 pips before news.. they change all the time. Canadian retail sales I think the spread was 5 pips. During Asian session spreads are wider.. because liquidity is pretty low. Mid-london and early NY sessions I get the best spreads.. I get 0 pips at times on GBP/USD.. 0 on eur/usd.. etc. Of course, it doesn't happen all the time.. Today was pretty interesting. I was watching my Reuters feed.. and the UK GDP came out slightly positive (3.1% y/y) but at the same time.. a BOE survey came out showing companies were not willing to extend credit. So I made a 5 pip prot on my GBP/USD trade.. but quickly exited because of those survey results. Within a few minutes, GBP/USD dropped.. and it reached a low of 2.0105 within two hours. Just shows you how news moves the markets. Then, the BOE auction - nobody bid on it - meaning no banks were in need of emergency funds. As soon as this report came out - GBP/USD jumped from the lows of 2.0110 to 2.0140-2.0150. I wish I had traded these reports, I just didn't know their signicance, so I stayed out. Anyway, durable goods orders came out terrible. GU spiked up before my reuters feed showed the report.. so I waited for a retracement. Surely enough.. after spiking to 2.0180.. it fell back and I got in at 2.0165. It went up to 2.0185 in half an hour.. I exited at 2.0180. So I made 15 pips. Even if you had got in at the top of the spike (2.0180) you would have still got out with 5 pips had you waited. In this case, I decided to wait because: 1. GBP/USD was in an uptrend 2. The US news just gave more reason to push it higher I was tempted to trade GBP/JPY today but it was just too volatile. It must have run up and down - a range of 200 pips, multiple times. There is no way to gure out when to get in .. or out! During news reports, imo.. is the best time to trade this beast. Still, I'll stick to the usual USD pairs. You know the saying - Bears and Bulls make money.. pigs get slaughtered.
~Shard~
6 pips on the US reports this morning. Nothing special, but I'll take it. ;)
09-26-2007 06:21 AM
I've tried my hand at some scalping too in the evenings (when the markets are a little less volatile) and have been having some success. I only go for a 2-3 pip gain and then get out. So far this one method I've been using seems to be at least somewhat consistent for my purposes. A few pips a day would be a nice supplement to my other forex and stock trading. :)
Macmaniac
My FOREX Trading
09-26-2007 12:41 PM
I have been doing a demo for over a month now and I have some sucess with a system I have been using. I trade during Asia being a college student so mainly from 10PM-2AM is when I do my trading. I have been
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basically running a scalping system trying to pick up 10 pips on small dips during the Asia session. I have been using the Hourly Stochs to determine if I should enter a position, then I check my EMA's (21,50,200) to conrm whether I am going short or long. Then I use stochs and MACD on the 5 minute to conrm my entry. The system has worked well so far, about 80-90% winners when I follow the system. I have also been testing a method where I place entry limit orders off Asia's highs and lows. I don't have enough data on that, but it could be promising. I love the thrill of the Demo account, but I may switch to Onanda from FXSolutions cause their spread is 2-3 pips less (FX is 5), but I must say FXAccucharts have been great for me as a noobie.
~Shard~
09-26-2007 01:04 PM
Cool macmaniac, I wish you continued success! If you do open up a real account just remember to be careful and not invest too much, nor use large lots in the beginning. Discipline is denitely the name of the game. In the meantime though, good luck! :cool:
Music_Producer
09-26-2007 11:20 PM
17 pips on UK housing price report - everyone was expecting it to drop - came out with a surprisingly positive report. I got in late.. at 2.0180.. stupid Reuters didn't even show the numbers! My oanda news platform popped up with the report.. anyway.. waited for a good 17 minutes for the price to go up. It's funny how price goes up, retraces.. and then hangs around for a bit.. someone slaps it .. and off it goes in the right direction.. lol.
Spanners
09-27-2007 02:01 AM
A question about FOREX for you guys. I've been following this thread for a while now and various words and phrases do sometime stump me. So an idea occured. Could one/some of you start a "Beginners Guide" thread perhaps detailing the systems you use both Mac and Windows / a guide to all the terms you use etc. I work in Investment Banking and to be honest I sometimes loose the plot with what is going on. I'm sure it would be very helpful to others. What do you think?
Music_Producer
Quote:
09-27-2007 05:16 PM
Originally Posted by Spanners (Post 4246166) A question about FOREX for you guys. I've been following this thread for a while now and various words and phrases do sometime stump me. So an idea occured. Could one/some of you start a "Beginners Guide" thread perhaps detailing the systems you use both Mac and Windows / a guide to all the terms you use etc. I work in Investment Banking and to be honest I sometimes loose the plot with what is going on. I'm sure it would be very helpful to others.
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What do you think?
I'm in the process of starting a website/blog.. where I'll be posting answers to anyone with any questions. It's a lot easier for me to type in stuff, and then upload it to the blog, then log in here.. type in stuff (and get d/c at times.. and type everything back in.. I'm just lazy!) So if anyone has questions, please PM me and I'll make sure I answer all of them, as much as possible. Today's New Home Sales trade was an interesting one. At about 2-3am, there was a rumor that new home sales had been leaked, and the number was -10%. So GBP/USD and EUR/USD all shot up. I wasn't going to trade this report because I thought it would be a little risky.. as markets had already priced in the bad number. However, if the rumors were incorrect.. then GU would fall.. and so I based my trade on that theory. When the numbers came out.. they were -8%. Quite bad, all right - but not as bad as -10%. So I shorted GBP/USD (as it was at 2.0270 - peaked) It stayed at that level (looking confused!) for a bit, and then started dropping. I got out at 2.0265 (only 5 pips) because I chickened out. After that, it dropped all the way down to 2.0225 :mad: 5 pips instead of 50.. oh well..
nhallmark
Quote:
09-27-2007 08:15 PM
Originally Posted by Music_Producer (Post 4250432) I'm in the process of starting a website/blog.. where I'll be posting answers to anyone with any questions. It's a lot easier for me to type in stuff, and then upload it to the blog, then log in here.. type in stuff (and get d/c at times.. and type everything back in.. I'm just lazy!) So if anyone has questions, please PM me and I'll make sure I answer all of them, as much as possible.
Let us know the link when you get it up man;)
Music_Producer
Quote:
09-28-2007 06:03 AM
Originally Posted by nhallmark (Post 4251318) Let us know the link when you get it up man;)
It's almost ready bro. Sheesh.. I've been looking at the $ drop mercilessly in front of everything. Euro hit 1.42.. USD/CAD is 0.9946. WTF? This sh$$ is going to go on till end-2008 when euro is probably going to be 2.00 and GBP/USD is going to be 4.00. Feds better do something other than soothe the good for nothing DOW and stupid a$$ local investors who can't manage funds. :mad: Seriously, have you seen the carry trades? They've already picked up! AUD/JPY is back at 101.80
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something, GBP/JPY is 234.50 and moving up.. these dumb idiots never learn their lesson. We just had a 2000-4000 pip fall and less than a month and the morons are back to "Hey, let's make 2 pips a day in interest! Weeee!"
Music_Producer
10-05-2007 04:09 AM
I've had some really great trades since yesterday - rst off was the UK interest rate decision. If anyone traded, or even watched the markets.. there was a lot of pressure on the BoE to cut rates, and stupid rumors were also oating around that they are going to cut rates. So GBP/USD was pretty bearish from the start of the London session.. and kept dropping. Soon as the rate decision came out unchanged.. I went long on GU.. and after a few seconds, it went up. I netted 35 pips (got out at 2.0360-ish level) I knew it would go to 2.0400 eventually, but did not want to stay in the trade and risk any pips. ECB decision came out as expected.. I didn't trade that one. Went to sleep.. woke up and noticed that GU did go to 2.0400 and beyond. :o With 4 million units that I had traded, I could have made way more.. kept thinking that and slapped myself out of it (could have easily lost as well) Today's Canadian employment change report was a whopper. Huge deviation, plus big deviation in the unemployment rate. Both were extremely positive - so I shorted USD/CAD and got 20 pips (exited too fast - I just read the employment change report.. didn't notice the rate deviation as well) It fell by 40 more pips after I exited. Today is NFP.. be cautious if you are trading. Do NOT trade the spike, there will be ample opportunity to get in earlier. Check for revisions (as last number was -4k) Carry trades, - look at AUD/JPY. It's at 104.00. Amazing recovery.. I would prefer to invest in AUD/JPY than GBP/JPY, etc.. aussie $ is very solid.
nhallmark
10-05-2007 07:24 AM
WTF? 89K revision:eek: Looks they cooked the data last month to justify the rate cut :rolleyes:(Just my opinion, I have nothing to back that up..lol)
~Shard~
10-05-2007 07:42 AM
It's been a crazy couple of weeks as I've been busy with work, home renos, soccer and symphony rehearsals/concerts, but I managed to trade this morning's data and made a total of 43 pips off the Canadian and US reports - that makes up for my lack of trading recently! :D Oh, and I jumped on the carry trade last week when the AUDJPY was at 100.26. Bought just $50k, had an order in to sell at 102.25 and made 200 pips a few days later! :) Could have held on of course, but you know what they say about pigs and hogs... ;) :cool: October is going ot be a write-off for me it looks like, so I won't be on here much, but hopefully I'll have some more time in November... In the meantime, happy trading everyone!
Street Addict
10-05-2007 12:02 PM
:D Nice payroll report today! :)Got about 60 pips on US/Yen then shorted it for another 40 pips. Only playing with one lot right now...
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Music_Producer
Quote:
10-05-2007 11:35 PM
Originally Posted by nhallmark (Post 4285726) WTF? 89K revision:eek: Looks they cooked the data last month to justify the rate cut :rolleyes:(Just my opinion, I have nothing to back that up..lol)
Could be.. but I did read somewhere that the prior number was most likely to be revised because it was a huge deviation. There was also some reasoning behind it, but I didn't bother to read it. I shorted GU right away when I saw the revision.. that's what I was looking out for. I got out with 25 pips (you all beat me this time!) Good thing I didn't hold on to the trade.. after some time all USD pairs shot up (GU, EU) Weird.. then again, it was a friday.
Street Addict
10-11-2007 02:21 PM
Another good day today looking at AUD/USD. The Aud is very strong:D I saw it take a dip this morning went long with it knowing it would come back made 20 pips :) Wish I said with it for the day b/c in about 6 hours it went up 200 pips :mad: I'm a short term trader I make a few pips am out I'm trying to get in the habit of roll the dice to hold on to a lot for more then hour but its hard and risky i feel. Whats up with the ZAR I've been watch the USD/ZAR and that thing never moves but when it does wow :eek::eek: it will jump or drop 100 pips in a second.

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OceanView
MP, I just read this entry and was wondering where you get your info from?
Quote:
10-11-2007 05:01 PM
Originally Posted by Music_Producer (Post 4285151) was a lot of pressure on the BoE to cut rates, and stupid rumors were also oating around that they are going to cut rates.
nhallmark
Quote:
10-20-2007 08:01 PM
Originally Posted by OceanView (Post 4312053) MP, I just read this entry and was wondering where you get your info from?
I think he is using Reuters. Did you ever sell your house? You were right about LA. I'm out in Agoura Hills but when I go to LA :eek::eek::eek: It's crazy...all the people LOL. btw, guys I'm ofcially back with a small account and I'm not making the same mistake twice ;)
OceanView
10-20-2007 08:15 PM
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Originally Posted by nhallmark (Post 4359962) I think he is using Reuters. Did you ever sell your house? You were right about LA. I'm out in Agoura Hills but when I go to LA :eek::eek::eek: It's crazy...all the people LOL. btw, guys I'm ofcially back with a small account and I'm not making the same mistake twice ;)
Hey Nathan, Good to hear your still at it. As Winston Churchill use to say, Never Give UP! My house is still on the market. I may just take it off and wait till next year to sell it. I think most people are on the side lines and are just waiting to see how much further the market is gonna go down. Just watched Donald Trump talk about the RE market. He thinks were at or near the bottom and thinks it's a good time to buy. Just curious as to what your new strategy will be? I have been trying something new for the last 2 months on a demo account and it looks like its working so far. I am about to move over to the live account with it. Yeah, LA is crazy
~Shard~
10-21-2007 08:50 AM
Great to see you back Nathan, I wish you all the best with your trading. Unfortunately I have not been trading for the past couple weeks due to an insane work and home schedule. I hope to get back into it more actively again soon, but well have to see. This week denitely won't be it, as I am off to Vancouver on Tuesday for the week... ah well, it's a "good" kind of busy at least... ;) :) Take care and happy trading everyone... :cool:
100BIL
Thanks MP. Hey MP, thank you for your generosity of sharing forex knowledge.I was out of forex loop for awhile after i blew out my demo account of 15K(started 5K). I was demoralized,i thought i got it going then 1 day i just blew it. Reading your post made me think of trying it out again but i just don't trust any forex dealer out there wiping out every live accounts and i don't know any person making prot from forex trading.do you know someone? what do you think of cmsfx.com?they used vt trading software.
10-30-2007 12:07 PM
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nhallmark
Quote:
10-31-2007 02:01 PM
Originally Posted by OceanView (Post 4360007) Just curious as to what your new strategy will be? I have been trying something new for the last 2 months on a demo account and it looks like its working so far. I am about to move over to the live account with it.
I'm scalping with MMAs. Read the "Linuxtroll Simple Scalping" thread on FF for more info. What's your strategy? Did you go live yet?
Quote:
Originally Posted by ~Shard~ (Post 4361389) Great to see you back Nathan, I wish you all the best with your trading.
Thanks Shard. I needed the experience, I guess. It seems like a mandatory stage that every trader goes through, from what I've read LOL.
Quote:
Originally Posted by 100BIL (Post 4417765) Hey MP, thank you for your generosity of sharing forex knowledge.I was out of forex loop for awhile after i blew out my demo account of 15K(started 5K). I was demoralized,i thought i got it going then 1 day i just blew it. Reading your post made me think of trying it out again but i just don't trust any forex dealer out there wiping out every live accounts and i don't know any person making prot from forex trading.do you know someone? what do you think of cmsfx.com?they used vt trading software.
I'm not MP, but if he doesn't mind me saying, I know he is making money. Shard, is as well, from my knowledge. I am getting there with the consistency part...I am making money, but there are still ups and downs at present(not losses but periods where I am constantly breaking even LOL) I don't know much about CMS...do a search for them on FF. Also, in the Auslanco thread on FF, I think they use VT charts, so you might ask them. Hope that helps, Nathan
Street Addict
11-01-2007 04:27 PM
The best way I found to make money is play the news events and play with more lots 10 stander lots with only 10 pips is $100. On a good news like tomorrows big report you can easily 50-70 pips. You will lose
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some but accept the lost and get out don't be emotional.
Music_Producer
11-02-2007 06:20 AM
Hey nathan.. good to have you back bro! I nally logged in today.. have been so lazy with the whole logging in.. posting, etc.. and no one was posting.. so I gured everyone was busy trading.. or not! Today's NFP was another classic.. lol.. I wonder where they get these numbers from. Got a good 35 pips on USD/JPY, could have held on a little longer but you know NFP post-trading.. gets crazy. I'm really amused to see GU and EU back to their pre-data levels and even higher.. they probably smell a 'rat' with the NFP numbers. Should revise the term to near-ctional-payrolls or something of that sort. I've been making money trading only fundamentals.. I did try out trading a few GBP/JPY technicals.. but every time I do that, I always lose pips. I trade technicals with very small lots, so it doesn't harm my account.. but I need to stay away. It's just that fundies/news reports have been slow these days, and I get bored.. so I try to play around with techs. Not worth it. (for me) Shard, I don't think I can move to canada now. With the CAD $ going up so high.. I think all I can afford there is a little boat :p Ocean.. Oanda's good for options reports, and other fundamentals.. but yeah, like nathan mentioned I get my reports from Reuters. I've been having some really good trades with canadian reports (a week or two ago i think) and NZ reports. I messed up big time on the aussie cpi report .. there were two CPI reports and I looked at the wrong one. Lost 40 pips. The worst part was if I had held on, I would have made a prot since it eventually did go back in the direction I entered the trade in. Ahh well.. another thing I hate now is that aussie retail sales have been coming out at the same time as aussie trade balance. Complete waste of two really tradable reports. Anyways, keep posting.. I'll jump in every now and then.. Ocean, housing has a lot more rough patches to go through. Trump will talk like any realtor (yes housing has bottomed, now's a good time to buy) The credit crunch is going to get worse when all these buyers who are paying their home equity with credit cards.. won't be able to pay both!
~Shard~
Quote:
11-02-2007 08:51 AM
Originally Posted by nhallmark (Post 4424381) Thanks Shard. I needed the experience, I guess. It seems like a mandatory stage that every trader goes through, from what I've read LOL.
Yep, don't worry, you're denitely not alone... ;) :)

Quote:
Originally Posted by nhallmark (Post 4424381) I'm not MP, but if he doesn't mind me saying, I know he is making money. Shard, is as well, from my knowledge. I am getting there with the consistency part...I am making money, but there are still ups and downs at present(not losses but periods where I am constantly breaking even LOL)
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Yeah, I'm making money with forex. Not enough to retire on but it's still better than losing money. ;) As mentioned previously, I haven't been trading much lately though - just too much on the go it seems. :(
Quote:
Originally Posted by Music_Producer (Post 4434263) Shard, I don't think I can move to canada now. With the CAD $ going up so high.. I think all I can afford there is a little boat :p
Myself and my wife just bought an apartment complex here in town (one of the many reasons I've been busy lately) and our ultimate plan is to condo-ize it. When we do I'll give you a deal on one of the units! :D Yeah, 1.07, who would have thought... I'm eyeing a new MacBook Pro right now. The mid-range model is $2800 CAD but only $2500 USD which works out to even less after the exchange rate... Maybe the US economy will be sustained via strong retail sales #s due to cross-border shopping! ;) :D
Quote:
Originally Posted by Music_Producer (Post 4434263) Anyways, keep posting.. I'll jump in every now and then.. Ocean, housing has a lot more rough patches to go through. Trump will talk like any realtor (yes housing has bottomed, now's a good time to buy) The credit crunch is going to get worse when all these buyers who are paying their home equity with credit cards.. won't be able to pay both!
Totally agree - it's going to get worse before it gets better. But hey, with the low US interest rates now thanks to the Fed maybe more people will start buying homes - that will x the problem, no? :rolleyes: :p And I'll try to post more frequently here as well. It'll help once I start trading regulary as well. In the meantime, stay in touch everyone and happy trading! :cool:
Cromulent
11-02-2007 09:44 AM
Hi guys. I've been playing around with the OANDA demo account for a while now and was thinking about going in with a very small real account. Is it worth it? I mean I really am talking about a small account, what would be your minimum for starting out? Basically I just want to put enough in that if I lose it it won't make any real difference to me nancially. Plus is OANDA the best site to go with? I'm in the UK so I am unsure of these things at the moment.
nhallmark
Quote:
11-03-2007 11:13 PM
Originally Posted by Cromulent (Post 4435246) Hi guys. I've been playing around with the OANDA demo account for a while now and was thinking about going in with a very small real account. Is it worth it? I mean I really am talking about a small account, what would be your minimum for starting out? Basically I just want to put enough in that if I lose it it won't make any real difference to me nancially. Plus is OANDA the best site to go with? I'm in the UK so I am unsure of these things at the
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moment.
What's your strategy? If it's news trading, like it was talked about at the beginning of this thread, then, no OANDA is not the best. If your trading news, the only real solution is to do what Music_Producer is doing and get on the Currenex platform.(minimum deposit=$50k) If it's not news, then IMO, OANDA isn't a half bad broker. Like Music_Producer has said, start with $50(or around there). Don't deposit anymore until you've doubled that $50.(I think that's what he said, correct me if I'm wrong) Hope that helps, Nathan Edit: You can start with $1 on OANDA so it's not a big deal if you lose it.
Music_Producer
11-08-2007 01:25 AM
Hey everyone, we have a big one today - bank of england rate decision. They will probably leave rates alone but all this Barclays business might push them to reduce rates.. I am hoping they do so.. for a great trade. GU has pushed up beyond 2.1000 level.. so a rate cut would bring in a good 150+ pips (or even more) If you were watching the charts yesterday, it was a crazy day. Some chinese ofcial opened his mouth stating that 'We need to diversify our reserves into stronger currencies such as euros, etc" and EUR/USD jumped up 100 pips in a few seconds. My news feed was closed.. so when I saw that huge spike I immediately opened the feed to see what was going on. USD took quite a beating yesterday.. EUR/USD broke the 1.47 barrier.. and pound broke 2.100 level. On days like these, trade with the trend. It's the easiest way to do so - if you missed out on the initial spike.. wait for a retracement and some prot taking. Buy on dips - NEVER short against a major buying trend! I was checking out another forum yesterday and someone shorted the pound at 2.1000 level because it's a major level.. and he thought it would be a good opportunity for resistance.. and it would fall 20-30 pips. He bet his entire account on it.. GBP/USD went all the way up to 2.1050.. he got a margin call and he lost about $80k. :eek: So DON't try and guess a top or a bottom, I don't know why people do that. If BoE cut rates today, and the pound falls.. I am certainly not going to go long if it falls to 2.0900 or 2.0800. Sure, it might start heading back up.. but it's a dangerous situation - it can easily turn against you.. and very quickly. It's safer to be with the trend.. and don't bet your entire account! I have been trading these trend trades with small lots.. just experimenting. This morning I was absolutely positive (500% sure) that the DOW was going to crash because: 1. GM posted $39 billion loss 2. All the citigroup news (losses in billions) 3. The USD taking a beating and china threatening to diversify 4. A bunch of other companies reporting losses 5. Fannie and Freddie (mortgage companies) being probed .. When you have so many bad news lumped together.. the equity markets cannot stop a crash. What's funny was the retards in forexfactory stating condently that GBP/JPY was going to go up.. all the way to 240 (it
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was 237.30 at the time) based on technical indicators "harmonious pattern, candlestick crap, etc" That is the worst decision you can ever make - trade on techs when you have gloomy fundamentals staring hard at you in the face. These idiots never learn their lesson. I shorted GJ.. it started going up to 237.60.. but I held on because I knew this was simply prot taking.. getting ready for a big fall. Sure enough, the DOW crashed 360+ points.. GJ went down all the way to 235.60 or so.. I cashed in with 100 pips. So good luck trading and if you're a tech trader, just keep some fundamentals in mind.. for your account's sake!
~Shard~
11-08-2007 04:44 AM
Great commentary and explanations Music_Producer, I completely agree. I've only had time for stocks and commodities (Gold is doing quite nicely for me since the end of August :D) but I miss forex so I'm going to make a point to start in on it again soon. Reading posts like yours reminds me of how much I enjoy ti and how much I've missed it these past few months... ;) :)
Music_Producer
Quote:
11-08-2007 04:54 AM
Originally Posted by ~Shard~ (Post 4461765) Great commentary and explanations Music_Producer, I completely agree. I've only had time for stocks and commodities (Gold is doing quite nicely for me since the end of August :D) but I miss forex so I'm going to make a point to start in on it again soon. Reading posts like yours reminds me of how much I enjoy ti and how much I've missed it these past few months... ;) :)
I am so bummed man.. about gold.. I bought a few ounces when it was $725 or so.. I can't believe the damn thing is shooting up like there's a worldwide shortage. You said it follows a cycle though.. right? So it should slow down post-December? Btw, if you have access to the Yuan.. check it out. It keeps rising against the dollar, and in my opinion it's almost a guaranteed bet that USD/CNY will keep dropping. Especially when the bank of china decides to oat the currency. Their ination keeps going up, so they have no choice but to hike rates. I've made 650 pips since the last 3 weeks on the Yuan (unfortunately with a small lot.. kicking myself.. if I was trading my usual lots.. I would have bought your apartment complex lol) Btw, I am now on iTunes. So check my single out :p It was composed way back in 1997.. ten years to release it lol. I haven't changed the mastering, mixing.. nothing.. it's still vintage! If anyone wants to ask questions about forex, rst buy my track and then we can talk :D (my fee is 99 cents! and for you brits, aussies, etc.. that's nothing nowadays!) http://phobos.apple.com/WebObjects/M...t?id=266345846
~Shard~
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11-08-2007 05:39 AM
Originally Posted by Music_Producer (Post 4461795) I am so bummed man.. about gold.. I bought a few ounces when it was $725 or so.. I can't believe
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the damn thing is shooting up like there's a worldwide shortage. You said it follows a cycle though.. right? So it should slow down post-December?
That's correct, Gold is a seasonal play. I believe I explained it earlier in this thread, just search for "gold" as posted by "~Shard~" and I'm sure it will be easy to nd. ;) Otherwise I can explain it again, however not right now as I am off to work... :D
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Originally Posted by Music_Producer (Post 4461795) Btw, if you have access to the Yuan.. check it out. It keeps rising against the dollar, and in my opinion it's almost a guaranteed bet that USD/CNY will keep dropping. Especially when the bank of china decides to oat the currency. Their ination keeps going up, so they have no choice but to hike rates. I've made 650 pips since the last 3 weeks on the Yuan (unfortunately with a small lot.. kicking myself.. if I was trading my usual lots.. I would have bought your apartment complex lol)
I don't, unfortunately... :( How about I just write you a check for $10k, you use 100:1 margin on it, making it $1M and trade that for me? ;) I'll give you a % of everything you make for me! :eek: :D
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Originally Posted by Music_Producer (Post 4461795) Btw, I am now on iTunes. So check my single out :p It was composed way back in 1997.. ten years to release it lol. I haven't changed the mastering, mixing.. nothing.. it's still vintage! If anyone wants to ask questions about forex, rst buy my track and then we can talk :D (my fee is 99 cents! and for you brits, aussies, etc.. that's nothing nowadays!) http://phobos.apple.com/WebObjects/M...t?id=266345846
Very cool, and congrats! I'll check it out and who knows, I might just pick it up... :)
nhallmark
That's damn good man, especially for '97. I grabbed it LOL.
11-09-2007 03:18 AM
I got a question for you(MP)...you've talked several times about how you "used to trade" and you lost a lot of money...and now you don't get stupid with it and you're able to keep your discipline. Is that right? Well, I was going good and doing a lot better than I had expected and I was still maintaining my discipline, then I got stupid one day...my account isn't damaged too bad, but enough that I'm not trading until I regain my self control. So, I guess my question is, do you still have problems with discipline and if, not what do you do to keep yourself under control? Shard, I would like to hear your answer on this also, if you don't mind. Is something you are always aware of and have to focus on daily(or when trading)?
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Or, is it something that you've dealt with and it's no longer a problem? I didn't really have this issue with news trading for some reason, but now it's the one thing keeping me from consistency LOL. Edit: MP, did you use tunecore to get it on iTunes? Also, you should get Apple's afliate program so you can get an extra 5 cents out of the 30 they take LOL.
Cromulent
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11-09-2007 04:19 AM
Originally Posted by nhallmark (Post 4440812) What's your strategy? If it's news trading, like it was talked about at the beginning of this thread, then, no OANDA is not the best.
I was planning on trading on maths based assumptions. I've been doing a bit of reading on the subject and there seem to be a few ways to work in this manner.
Music_Producer
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11-09-2007 06:20 AM
Originally Posted by nhallmark (Post 4467313) That's damn good man, especially for '97. I grabbed it LOL. I got a question for you(MP)...you've talked several times about how you "used to trade" and you lost a lot of money...and now you don't get stupid with it and you're able to keep your discipline. Is that right? Well, I was going good and doing a lot better than I had expected and I was still maintaining my discipline, then I got stupid one day...my account isn't damaged too bad, but enough that I'm not trading until I regain my self control. So, I guess my question is, do you still have problems with discipline and if, not what do you do to keep yourself under control? Shard, I would like to hear your answer on this also, if you don't mind. Is something you are always aware of and have to focus on daily(or when trading)? Or, is it something that you've dealt with and it's no longer a problem? I didn't really have this issue with news trading for some reason, but now it's the one thing keeping me from consistency LOL. Edit: MP, did you use tunecore to get it on iTunes? Also, you should get Apple's afliate program so you can get an extra 5 cents out of the 30 they take LOL.
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Hey man, thanks! You're my rst customer :p I have problems with discipline everyday, believe it or not. Like I posted earlier, if there are no major news trades.. I get bored, and then I start looking at charts, and start trading technicals. Today I traded the GJ collapse, I traded EUR/TRY, GBP/USD.. a lot of pairs, but with really small lots (micro lots) The only way I stop being greedy is I actually put large stickers on my trading desk which boldly state "No technical trades" or "Don't be greedy" or "You really wanna blow your account again". Really silly things, but they work. They're staring at me in the face, and helps remind me every time I take a trade. The part that is dangerous is when you trade small lots, and you get successful (all my trades today were protable) you get condent.. and then you wish "I made 100 pips today, with only $10 prot. If I had put in all my money, I would have made $10,000 prot".. and then before you know it, bam.. you've put all your money on a stupid trade, which ends up wiping out your account. I also think that the factor that really prevents discipline is the failure to accept that you're wrong. When I would hold on to a losing trade, it wasn't about the fear of losing money (well yeah a little, lol) but also that "I can't be wrong. According to me, this should go up.. and it will" It's like an insult to your intelligence that a trade is not working out according to your strategy. That's how most fund managers end up losing billions. It's a pretty common trend amongst us traders. So yes, I deal with it on a daily basis. I don't think you can ever get used to being disciplined. We're greedy basically, and we need to be reminded of the pitfalls. The music bit, no I submitted it to iTunes jukebox (a really long time ago) and then I came across tunecore which seems like better value (I don't know if they are faster in uploading your tracks) Be patient man, and don't get greedy and stupid! I wish there was someone physically standing behind me, that everytime I wanted to jump in a trade.. they would whack me lol.
OceanView
MP, I didn't know you were a real Music Producer. Your song sounds pretty good. Most of your music is Techno? Just wondering.
11-10-2007 07:10 PM
Nathan, sometimes it's best to play for a short time and turn off the computer and do something else. The more you play, the more chance you can loose. :-( I have been in a loosing trade this past week. In the hole for $15K right now. :eek: I can't get out till the dollar gets stronger, hopefully next week. It so scary how fast the market can turn on you. I was doing really well until this last trade. Made over 500% of my initial deposit and then boom, S*** hit the fan. Now I am just hoping that I can get out without getting a margin call.
Music_Producer
11-11-2007 07:55 PM
Ocean, ouch - this market has been dollar bearish since the Feds cut rates. Don't tell me you went long on EU or GU. I do expect EU and GU to go down this week, but that would be mostly based on prot-taking.. and not really dollar strength as such. This week there are a lot of reports - GU has already been dropping since some rumors about a huge writedown in Barclay's came out. EU.. I am not sure it will see a lot of action unless the ECB steps in.
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For long term - dollar is very weak.. short term there might be some bearishness. So far, no one has intervened with the dollar falling so low, it's like no one is interested in stopping the fall. Check out the carry pairs.. it's unwinding time all over again.
Music_Producer
11-12-2007 06:43 AM
Ocean, wake up! $ is staging a rally since last night.. GU's fallen 300 pips or so.. EU fell 100+ pips.. hope you're out of the hole.
OceanView
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11-13-2007 10:38 AM
Originally Posted by Music_Producer (Post 4481672) Ocean, wake up! $ is staging a rally since last night.. GU's fallen 300 pips or so.. EU fell 100+ pips.. hope you're out of the hole.
Ha ha I'm here. Just been busy. I am about 10K down and doing some minor trading in the meantime. Hoping the get some of my losses back.
~Shard~
Well, I executed my rst forex trade in a couple months last night - it's good to be back! :D
11-13-2007 11:11 AM
I received consistent signals from 3 different technical indicators I have set up and decided to short the USDCAD based on that. Made 60 pips on a $100K lot while I was sleeping - very nice! :cool: I hope to get back into news trading this week as well, as I nd it much more reliable than techical trading, at least when it comes to forex. I'll post my results...
OceanView
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11-13-2007 11:15 AM
Originally Posted by ~Shard~ (Post 4488486) Well, I executed my rst forex trade in a couple months last night - it's good to be back! :D I received consistent signals from 3 different technical indicators I have set up and decided to short the USDCAD based on that. Made 60 pips on a $100K lot while I was sleeping - very nice! :cool: I hope to get back into news trading this week as well, as I nd it much more reliable than techical trading, at least when it comes to forex. I'll post my results...
Good for you Shard. Sometimes taking breaks are a good thing.
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~Shard~
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11-13-2007 01:01 PM
Originally Posted by OceanView (Post 4488504) Good for you Shard. Sometimes taking breaks are a good thing.
Quoted for truth! :cool:
Music_Producer
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11-16-2007 05:34 AM
Originally Posted by ~Shard~ (Post 4488486) I hope to get back into news trading this week as well, as I nd it much more reliable than techical trading, at least when it comes to forex. I'll post my results...
You bet :) The last few days were excellent because of UK reports.. the BoE ination report really slammed the pound because it basically forecast a rate cut. Then there was the bad retail sales #. Since the ination report. GBP/USD has gone down almost 400+ pips. Carry trades are funny.. when there no market reports of banks in trouble.. or reports of losses, they start moving back up .. slowly but steadily. AUD/JPY went above 107 a few weeks ago! It's back at 96 now.. lol. I love watching these things drop . it's like a free fall. I do get tempted to jump in but honestly it's pretty scary since you never know when they might reverse direction. I just play around with small lots. Hope everyone is trading sensibly.. don't blow your account. Use good risk management (especially if you are trading technicals!)
~Shard~
11-16-2007 06:04 AM
Looking forward to some key economic reports next week and the resultant potential trades. For this week though, I'm done, other than perhaps a short or two on the stock markets today... ;) I had a couple good forex trades this week and will slowly get back up to full trading speed I hope! Now that winter's coming what else is there to do? ;) :D
nhallmark
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11-16-2007 11:52 AM
Originally Posted by Music_Producer (Post 4502983) Carry trades are funny.. when there no market reports of banks in trouble.. or reports of losses, they start moving back up .. slowly but steadily. AUD/JPY went above 107 a few weeks ago! It's back at 96 now.. lol. I love watching these things drop . it's like a free fall. I do get tempted to jump in but
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honestly it's pretty scary since you never know when they might reverse direction. I just play around with small lots.
I have noticed this LOL...trading EJ though. IMO, the best time to get in is when the market is active(during london for example) and when it breaks a .00 level. It has to y through it though to mean anything. I've made a lot doing this for the past few weeks. EJ usually stalls at 86-87 so I get out there with 10-12 pips usually. Since we're coming up on the holidays, when does everything die down? Last year(wow, its been a year LOL) I was still on demo just trading news and I remember during Christmas nothing moved because of low volume, etc. So, when does everyone take off for the holidays from your experience? I'm thinking London shouldn't be a problem next week because they don't have thanksgiving. I guess we'll see.
nhallmark
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11-16-2007 11:56 AM
Originally Posted by ~Shard~ (Post 4489086) Quoted for truth! :cool:
Yes, this past weekend after my bad discipline day, I drove up the coast and came back with a completely different mindset. When I rst started scalping, I would take only one trade per hour(thats conservative for scalping) and then not watch the charts until the next hour. The logic being that when the market is moving, each candle on a 1hr chart goes somewhere. So, I would just catch a little of that move each hour and take a break after every one. This really helped me stay objective. I think I'm about to start doing that again LOL.
~Shard~
11-16-2007 12:04 PM
Ah, what a way to end the week! The reports came back from a junior oil & gas exploration company here in the province which I had an inside line on and they did it - they found oil! :D Bought 50,000 shares @ $0.17 a while ago. Just sold @ $0.47, I don't even care if it goes up more... Well, if it pulls back due to prot-taking though I might pop back in at a discount.. ;) :D The company is Nordic Oil & Gas - NOG on the TSX Venture exchange... Yeah, not forex-related, but I haven't had a big win like this in a looong time and had to express my joy somewhere... :)
Blue Velvet
11-16-2007 12:06 PM
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Someone mentioned gold? Check the highest price ever reached for gold, adjust it for ination, index it to today's prices, and imagine how much further it could potentially go...
~Shard~
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11-16-2007 01:06 PM
Originally Posted by Blue Velvet (Post 4504599) Someone mentioned gold? Check the highest price ever reached for gold, adjust it for ination, index it to today's prices, and imagine how much further it could potentially go...
Way ahead of you BV, but thanks. ;) I've made a fair bit on that lovely precious metal so far... :cool:
nhallmark
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11-16-2007 10:54 PM
Originally Posted by ~Shard~ (Post 4504589) Ah, what a way to end the week! The reports came back from a junior oil & gas exploration company here in the province which I had an inside line on and they did it - they found oil! :D Bought 50,000 shares @ $0.17 a while ago. Just sold @ $0.47, I don't even care if it goes up more... Well, if it pulls back due to prot-taking though I might pop back in at a discount.. ;) :D The company is Nordic Oil & Gas - NOG on the TSX Venture exchange... Yeah, not forex-related, but I haven't had a big win like this in a looong time and had to express my joy somewhere... :)
Good job, Shard!

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Originally Posted by ~Shard~ (Post 4504862) Way ahead of you BV, but thanks. ;) I've made a fair bit on that lovely precious metal so far... :cool:
Good job again :p I admire your knowledge of other markets. And I admire that your results seem to be very consistent ;) I know you've explained some things in the past about gold/$ correlations, oil seasonal stuff, etc. but if you ever feel like explaining some more, I'm listening :)
kbcash35
Looking to open a live acct
11-17-2007 01:49 PM
Hey guys, Ive been looking to ofcially get into Fx trading for a few months now, but still looking around to
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nd out if there is a sitable platform out there for me... Ive skimmed through the threads here and Ive come across Oanda, CMC and currenex, Im only family with forex.com as i did the practice account and started making good gains as a technical trader..... Through my reading CMC isnt great, so thats out of the picture... forex.com to me is easy to understand, so I'm considering opening an account there... any suggestions on this platform, the difference from others.. or what platforms would you guys reccommend especially for a newbie... thanks :)
Music_Producer
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11-21-2007 12:25 AM
Originally Posted by ~Shard~ (Post 4504589) Ah, what a way to end the week! The reports came back from a junior oil & gas exploration company here in the province which I had an inside line on and they did it - they found oil! :D Bought 50,000 shares @ $0.17 a while ago. Just sold @ $0.47, I don't even care if it goes up more... Well, if it pulls back due to prot-taking though I might pop back in at a discount.. ;) :D The company is Nordic Oil & Gas - NOG on the TSX Venture exchange... Yeah, not forex-related, but I haven't had a big win like this in a looong time and had to express my joy somewhere... :)
Express your joy by giving me and nathan 2 condos in your complex :D Nice job mate.. inside line and all eh? Hehe.. who knows, it might become the next Haliburton so hold on to a few shares!
~Shard~
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11-21-2007 06:49 AM
Originally Posted by Music_Producer (Post 4523843) Express your joy by giving me and nathan 2 condos in your complex :D Nice job mate.. inside line and all eh? Hehe.. who knows, it might become the next Haliburton so hold on to a few shares!
Not really an "inside line", but let's say a gem that wasn't on anyone's radar screen - well, until now... ;) Did a couple technical trades last night, made 16 pips in total, not too shabby. Very short term trades, only a couple minutes- can't get greedy and have to stick to the plan. :cool: And no worries, if yourself or Nathan ever plan on coming up here you'll always have a place to stay! :D I'm looking at shorting USDCAD again in the near future, but the timing isn't quite right yet. In general I'm bearish on the USD. It's going to be interesting to see see what happens next year when hundreds of millions of dollars of current mortgages come up as due... guessing that won't make things any better... :eek: I potentially see a word beginning with "R" in the USA's future... just maybe...
nhallmark
MP, I guess we know why you got denied for that Citi card a few weeks ago :p
11-28-2007 12:54 AM
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What do you guys think about the reaction?(JPY pairs shooting up)
OceanView
Time to go long on the Pound and the Euro. Everyone is talking about 50 basis point cut on the interest rate. Someone even mentioned 100 basis points :eek:
11-29-2007 09:09 PM
~Shard~
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11-29-2007 09:28 PM
Originally Posted by OceanView (Post 4560146) Time to go long on the Pound and the Euro. Everyone is talking about 50 basis point cut on the interest rate. Someone even mentioned 100 basis points :eek:
I just heard a similar story on CNBC tonight. Yep, may not be a bad idea... :cool:
~Shard~
12-04-2007 08:00 PM
22 pips on the CAD interest rate decision this morning. 7 pips scalping tonight using 1-minute charts and technicals... :cool:
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~Shard~
12-05-2007 04:48 AM
ADP report is coming out in 25 minutes - I'll be watching for a potential trade - and then again 15 minutes later on the other US data...
Music_Producer
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12-05-2007 02:48 PM
Originally Posted by ~Shard~ (Post 4579339) 22 pips on the CAD interest rate decision this morning. 7 pips scalping tonight using 1-minute charts and technicals... :cool:
22 pips? Man, you were super slow weren't you? :p That was a good 120 + pip trade.. hehe. Ocean.. I wouldn't go long myself.. I'm still waiting for the UK interest rate decision. Their banks are in trouble.. so if you go long on GBP/USD and they cut rates..
~Shard~
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12-05-2007 08:24 PM
Originally Posted by Music_Producer (Post 4582611) 22 pips? Man, you were super slow weren't you? :p That was a good 120 + pip trade.. hehe.
Yeah, I suck. :p :D
nhallmark
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12-07-2007 04:42 AM
Originally Posted by Music_Producer (Post 4582611) .. so if you go long on GBP/USD and they cut rates..
uh..err...how'd that turn out?
~Shard~
12-07-2007 04:58 AM
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Getting ready for NFP in half an hour... should be interesting as always!
Music_Producer
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12-09-2007 12:27 PM
Originally Posted by nhallmark (Post 4588944) uh..err...how'd that turn out?
I just got 21 pips on that one, it dipped about 60 pips or so.. retraced and went back up. It was widely expected that they were going to cut rates (from more than a month or so) I hope you didn't go on felix's signals or the forexfactory calendar.. they're a little 'behind' lol. Reuters has a nice little section where you can see the rate futures of any currency.. and how much a cut/hike is priced in. Bloomberg has a better data model I believe, I've seen a screenshot of it once.. was pretty impressive. Pound had dropped about 300 pips or so expecting a rate cut.. so there wasn't much move left.
Music_Producer
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12-09-2007 12:28 PM
Originally Posted by ~Shard~ (Post 4588980) Getting ready for NFP in half an hour... should be interesting as always!
How did that go? I couldn't trade NFP :(
~Shard~
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12-09-2007 01:38 PM
Originally Posted by Music_Producer (Post 4597279) How did that go? I couldn't trade NFP :(
Whoops. kinda left you guys hanging on that one. :o ;) It was a rather messy trade - well, as far as using CMC goes (yeah, still with them, they are still doing the trick for the most part for me <shrug>) but I managed 11 pips shorting the EURUSD (only $100k lot since it was NFP). Lots more pips to be had but I second-guessed myself on the whole retrace thing and, well, decided to err on the side of caution this time. I think the USD might strengthen just a tad today/overnight as the week starts off slowly, but after that I see a potentially strong week for the EUR, GBP, etc. against the dollar. Well, not sure about JPY, there seems to be an inverted head and shoulders pattern there, not sure what to make of that... Of course technicals mean absolute crap when the fundamentals speak their mind... ;) Regardless, I think the 25 bps cut might be priced in, but I doubt a 50 bps cut is, and I have a hunch we just might see that. I will be ready to go long on EURUSD, GBPUSD and AUDUSD if things go the way I think they might. I like AUDUSD especially due to the attractiveness of the carry trade on this pair with the current (and now potentially even lower) USD rate.
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I'll make my move tomorrow - or sooner if the stars align and the opportunity presents itself. :cool:
paulbaker
Question It looks like lots of folks here are into FX. I have been in and out. Can some one please list a few dealers / companies that are honest to deal with...
12-10-2007 01:28 PM
ie. that don't send you a letter stating that your protable trades were not executed and not valid... I would like to get back in the game, but there are so many crooks out there now...
Britguy
12-11-2007 05:57 AM
MP is your broker still working for you at newstime? Any thoughts on FOMC? My gut instinct is they'll cut 50bps.
~Shard~
12-11-2007 07:10 AM
I'm making a special trip home over my lunch hour just to watch the trade. ;) :D My gut says 50 bps as well, but I'll be ready to trade accordingly regardless of the announcement. I feel a 25 bps cut is priced into the market, but denitely not a 50 bps cut... Should be fun! :cool:
Music_Producer
12-11-2007 11:29 AM
Well, that was fun - i got 20 biggie pips (4 million units) so I'm quite satised. Did the announcement take time to come out or was it just me? I didn't get in on the spike.. got in a few seconds later.. rates cut by 25 bps.. not by 50 bps as 30% of traders had hoped for. There goes the DOW.. stupid market psychology.. now it's going to drop because the whiners are sad that they didn't get a 50 bps cut LOL. Britguy, yes I can still trade the news without a problem.. what about you?
Music_Producer
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12-11-2007 11:33 AM
Originally Posted by ~Shard~ (Post 4603791) I feel a 25 bps cut is priced into the market, but denitely not a 50 bps cut... Should be fun! :cool:
Actually, Shard.. traders were expecting a 50 bps cut (15% were even expecting a 100 bps cut.. geez!) Right now everything is going to be choppy until markets gure out the nal trend.
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My personal opinion is bearish on GBP/USD and bullish on EUR/USD but I am not at all certain, which is why I am out for now. Obviously since this was bad for the DOW, GBP/JPY is taking a hit and so are most carry pairs. Look at AUD/JPY.. dropped 200 pips. Should have traded carry pairs instead of USD pairs :mad:
Music_Producer
I've just shorted GBP/JPY at 226.35.. will exit at 225.50 (if it goes there.. it should)
12-11-2007 11:37 AM
Music_Producer
Exited at 225.77.. no patience!!
12-11-2007 11:40 AM
Music_Producer
Ok, it hit 225.50 lol. Always does that as soon as I exit :p
12-11-2007 11:43 AM
~Shard~
12-11-2007 11:52 AM
Nice trade Music_Producer! I didn't realize so many people were planning for a 50 bps cut. And a 100 bps cut! :eek: Regardless, we only saw the 25 bps and was able to grab a modest 6 pips in the resulting action I didn't want to get too crazy. :)
Music_Producer
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12-11-2007 11:59 AM
Originally Posted by ~Shard~ (Post 4604819) Nice trade Music_Producer! I didn't realize so many people were planning for a 50 bps cut. And a 100 bps cut! :eek:
Yup, all the loonies on wall st basically want the Feds to cut rates to zero.. so they can start lending money out to cash-hungry consumers with zero savings and no ability to re-pay :rolleyes: Spend! Spend!
~Shard~
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12-11-2007 12:11 PM
Originally Posted by Music_Producer (Post 4604857) Yup, all the loonies on wall st basically want the Feds to cut rates to zero.. so they can start lending money out to cash-hungry consumers with zero savings and no ability to re-pay :rolleyes: Spend! Spend!
Yep, keeping lowering those rates so consumers who can't afford things will continue to buy them, creating more debt and all that good stuff. To me it's indicative of an irrepsonsible society with a "must have" mentality where consumers want their big homes, fancy new SUVs, plasma screens and all that whether
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they can afford them or not. Sad, really, yet this is how a large percentage of US consumers seem to behave. And the worst part is that they are either oblivious to the fact that what they are doing is foolish, or they aware of said fact yet don't care. :rolleyes:
Britguy
MP,
12-13-2007 03:15 AM
Not a lot of joy with trading the spike, i always get a requote or lled late. But I am using a retail broker so will change in the new year. How is your broker on lling you CAD releases, as they seem the best movers recently?
~Shard~
12-13-2007 04:19 AM
Shorted GBPUSD based on the breaking RCIS data from last night. Did NOT look good at all. Stop order @ 25 pips prot hit while I was asleep. :cool: Also scalped 7 pips with EURJPY last night via 2 trades... A ton of US data coming out at 7:30, should be fun!
~Shard~
12-14-2007 05:44 AM
Seemed like a delayed reaction (at least on CMC :rolleyes: ) but I was watching for a drop and took it, even though it was noticeably after the news came out. Shorted EURUSD for 13 pips 1.4489 to 1.4476. Had AUDUSD on my radar as well and caught 2 pips on the retrace. ;) :D The reason I was watching AUDUSD is the best part though - I opened a technical trade on it last night and shorted it overnight, as it didn't break through the triple top @ the 90 level, and long-term MACDs were providing serious resistance. My stop was hit for a prot of 25 pips! A great way to end the week - I hope you all were able to prot as well. :cool:
OceanView
Hey Shard, Looks like a nice little prot you've made there. Can you give some advice on gold investing? I can't remember exactly what you said about it. Which time is the best time to buy and sell? I have been thinking about it for long term investing (6mo or longer) Thanks
12-14-2007 08:40 AM
~Shard~
Quote:
12-14-2007 09:28 AM
Originally Posted by OceanView (Post 4616467)
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Hey Shard, Looks like a nice little prot you've made there. Can you give some advice on gold investing? I can't remember exactly what you said about it. Which time is the best time to buy and sell? I have been thinking about it for long term investing (6mo or longer) Thanks
Thanks, can!t complain. :) Lately I!ve been having a lot of success implementing my technical trading strategies for scalping when the North American markets are closed. Doing it during trading hours would be suicidal I think! ;) As with everything, discipline is the key. :cool: Gold trading (as part of commodity trading in general) is an excellent complement to forex trading. Gold has an inverse relationship to the USD, so if you have your nger on the pulse of what is going on with the US economy, what direction the dollar is heading, etc., you can capitalize on trading Gold appropriately as well, ideally making money both ways! Whenever signicant US news comes out, I!ll watch Gold as well as the USD and trade accordingly. Through CMC I have access to Gold Futures contracts as well as Spot, so I can actually buy contracts (essentially ounces of gold) outright as opposed to buying a fund, stock, ETF or some such investment vehicle which focuses on Gold. I prefer dealing with the actual commodity because of fundamentals. Gold is gold. Sure, I can buy Barrick Gold or GoldCorp, but it doesn!t really matter what the price of the underlying commodity is if one of these companies announces an accounting scandal... ;) As for when to buy Gold, as I alluded to before, look at the overall macro picture of the US economy with regards to the USD. You need to be aware of the current conditions obviously. But past that, regardless of what is happening on a macro scale, Gold does exhibit distinct seasonality every year. I cannot comment on the US Gold sector, but here in Canada where it is much larger (and hence where I focus my efforts), seasonality for Gold occurs between (roughly) July and September of every year. Just look at a 5-year or 10-year chart for Gold, ETFs such as XGD, etc., and you!ll see a denite pattern. In fact, out of the last 10 years, during the period of July-September trading the TSX Gold sector has been protable 9 times with an average return per period of 16.6%. The commodity itself has seen returns in the neighborhood of 6% every year for the past 10 years during this period as well. As for factors, there are many. Gold producers typically report their strongest results and earnings during the 3rd and 4th quarters. Gold also strengthens when gold fabricators purchase gold to make jewelery for the Xmas season and Dhaliwal season. (India is the largest consumer of gold in the world and the Indian wedding season is peak when it comes to gold demand!) Knowing these types of factors is key to seasonality and this applies for any and all sectors. For the IT sector it is September to January, averaging 15.9% gain each of the past 10 years. Reason: the fourth quarter is the strongest revenue and earnings quarter. Consumer electronic sales prior to Xmas also impacts this, and the climax is often seen with the CES in Vegas every January. Healthcare, same thing key conferences are in September (oncology conference) and January (JP Morgan health conference). This sector has a history of reaching a seasonal high just after the JP Morgan conference. In addition, there is always a higher frequency of drug approvals prior to year end. Period of seasonal strength? For the TSX, it!s the end of November until the end of February, averaging 7.5% gains each year for the past 10 years (7 out of the 10 have been protable.) For the S&P it!s August until January... Anyway, I could go on and on. Hopefully this has been of some help. :cool:
OceanView
12-14-2007 10:07 AM
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wow, that's a lot of info. Trading 4X after hours? :eek: MP would have a heart attack if he knew that. :D I didn't know you could trade gold by spot. Maybe I will wait till June-July to buy gold since that is just before the season starts. Going to start investigating gold as I need something more long term alternative to stocks. Thanks Shard for your vast knowledge and your willingness to share it. :)
Music_Producer
12-14-2007 10:37 AM
Hope you guys made some pips on the US core cpi report today.. was a good 68-70 pip drop for 2 minutes.. I managed to get 34 pips. I was a little slow because I was used to the fact that core CPI usually, never shows any changes. Shard.. what's dhaliwal? You mean diwali? :D lol You're lucky you can trade gold on cmc.. what's the spread like? Oanda has gold (XAU) but spreads are massive. Ocean.. i have had so many heart attacks when i was a rookie trading forex.. that I'm used to them by now ;-) Is your house still on the market? You might nd some buyers now because rates were cut. Britguy, CAD releases are the best to trade (along with AUD reports) I get instant lls, but I have to watch out for spreads. Sometimes, for a second the spreads go to 25-35 pips, and then come back to normal. There are times when the spread is 'inverted' .. lol, that's the easiest way to make money. For e.g. GBP/USD is 2.0200 sell and 2.0203 for buy (3 pip spread) the whole thing gets reversed - it becomes 2.0203 sell and 2.0200 buy. Easy money right? All you have to do is hit 'buy' or 'sell' and quickly close that trade, lol. These events happen on a daily basis.. but you have to be really quick to catch them. I know I missed out on a lot of these.
OceanView
Quote:
12-14-2007 11:24 AM
Originally Posted by Music_Producer (Post 4616877) Ocean.. i have had so many heart attacks when i was a rookie trading forex.. that I'm used to them by now ;-) Is your house still on the market? You might nd some buyers now because rates were cut.
I have had a few heart attacks myself this year (not actual) as my 4x account balance has dramatically been up and down. I've taken the house off the market for now. Too many low ball offers just driving me crazy. I had 2 good offers back in March and April of this year that I did not take because of other issues of the offer. My house is about $100K less in value now :mad: I really hope the market has bottomed but it may take another 6 months. It seems that the buyers are waiting or low balling in hopes to get a deal from a desperate seller. Their mentality is that the longer they wait, the lower the prices will get. My hopes of selling and moving to Canada will have to wait a bit long :( :D
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nickolas
New here! Hi there. New to Macs and new to forex! I was wondering about using dollars to buy the chinese renminbi. After the Chinese central bank decided to let it oat it steadily strengthens over the dollar.
12-14-2007 12:52 PM
What are your thoughts? Given that I live in the eurozone, should I sell euros for renminbis instead? Also can you give a link for a reliable forex company? Preferably one that I can open a small account for the beginning.
~Shard~
12-14-2007 01:15 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by OceanView wow, that's a lot of info.
Be careful what you wish for! ;) :D

Quote:
Originally Posted by OceanView Trading 4X after hours? :eek: MP would have a heart attack if he knew that.
Yeah, I have managed to nd some good trades during the Asian sessions. After dinner I!ll usually pop on and look for trade opportunities during the evening before I go to bed. Well, when I!m not out doing other things. ;)
Quote:
Originally Posted by OceanView Thanks Shard for your vast knowledge and your willingness to share it.
No problem at all. :)
Quote:
Originally Posted by Music_Producer Shard.. what's dhaliwal? You mean diwali?
Wow, did I ever screw that one up! Haha, my apologies! :o ;)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Music_Producer[/b You're lucky you can trade gold on cmc.. what's the spread like?
It varies on the time of day but during N. American trading hours it!s usually $0.50$1.00 - not too bad... CMC Canada allows me to trade all types of commodities, although I just stick to metals and energy. Technically I can trade silver, copper, heating oil, cocoa, sugar, wheat, corn, lumber, you name it! And good luck with your house situation OceanView, I hope things will work out for you in the near future. :cool:
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Britguy
Mp,
12-15-2007 04:51 AM
Thanks for the advice. I wonder why get instant lls on CAD/AUD releases and not other releases. Roughly what size are you trading at news time? 25-30pip spreads on EUR/CAD releases is not bad if you get 100pip move. There are some good GBP releases this week. I am looking forward to it. Do you have any thoughts on GBP/JPY and its general direction?
Music_Producer
Quote:
12-19-2007 12:26 PM
Originally Posted by Britguy (Post 4619064) Mp, Thanks for the advice. I wonder why get instant lls on CAD/AUD releases and not other releases. Roughly what size are you trading at news time? 25-30pip spreads on EUR/CAD releases is not bad if you get 100pip move. There are some good GBP releases this week. I am looking forward to it. Do you have any thoughts on GBP/JPY and its general direction?
Probably because most traders only concentrate on GBP, EUR/USD.. and of course, USD/JPY. These are the three major pairs that everyone trades. Depending on what news it is.. I vary my lots.. hope you traded the BoE minutes.. that was completely unexpected. All 9 members voted for a cut.. was a massive drop in GBP/USD. On interest rate decisions.. I keep up to 5 million units ready to trade.. on smaller news.. I reduce it to a million. I don't trade trade balance reports any more.. they're useless. Also, when trading interest rate releases.. always keep an eye out on what the market buzz is.. that is, what the traders are expecting or have priced in. For instance.. the recent UK rate cut.. everyone expected that.. so price movement wasn't that great. Everyone expected US to cut rates by 50 bps.. but they only cut by 25 bps.. so USD actually went up against the other pairs. These things can really confuse someone (heck it confused me for the longest time when i was trading) if they're new. GBP/JPY is going to be choppy - I've been expecting it to go down since last year.. lol.. but the carry traders are keeping it up. All it needs is a jpy rate hike to burst it's bubble. Fundamentally, it should go down - but it's hard to ght the carry trade institutional funds. At every dip, traders look at it as an opportunity to buy. In a way, it's a great pair to trade as it swings up and down.. but it's not for the weak of heart. It can swing 300 pips in any direction.. so if you're trading big sizes.. you can easily get a margin call. I would advise against trading gbp/jpy except during certain announcements related to the overall health of the carry trades (or the GBP).. JPY news usually does not affect it that much.
Britguy
12-19-2007 03:40 PM
I straddled the BOE minutes, got flled at 2.0125, a bit low, but still made 40 pips. The GDP is tomorrow. I
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think the may rally on this. as only 0.7 is expected. Also Retail on friday is a good trade. I obeserved the currenex spreads on the CAD CPI. USd/cad seemed ok. But Eur/cad went to 50pips at one point. How do you deal with such big spreads?
nhallmark
MP, do you have FOK orders on Currenex?
12-21-2007 12:53 AM
I was talking to a guy at a prop desk in Miami a few weeks ago. He was saying they and others have been asking Currenex to implement some type of FOK or slippage control for years and they nally implemented it. He was saying it was just added a few weeks ago. According to him, you set it, for example, to, say "buy at bid +3" and if the spread is 2 then you're basically allowing one pip for slippage...opposite for shorts, obviously. Do you have this feature yet? If so, how is it?
nhallmark
Also, has anyone had problems loading Oanda's platform since the Java update?
12-21-2007 01:58 AM
For some reason, my charts hang and they won't load now. The only workaround is using Firefox in parallels, that I have found. Any idea what the issue could be?
~Shard~
12-21-2007 05:36 AM
Sorry nathan, I don't use Oanda anymore so I can't offer anything on this one... You'd think if there was a legitimate, serious issue though they would address it fairly quickly. Hope it gets sorted out for ya soon...
nhallmark
Quote:
12-21-2007 05:55 AM
Originally Posted by ~Shard~ (Post 4641725) Sorry nathan, I don't use Oanda anymore so I can't offer anything on this one... You'd think if there was a legitimate, serious issue though they would address it fairly quickly. Hope it gets sorted out for ya soon...
Thanks, Shard. I'll get it gured out somehow :p
~Shard~
Quote:
12-21-2007 06:35 AM
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Originally Posted by nhallmark (Post 4641769) Thanks, Shard. I'll get it gured out somehow :p
Good luck - and no need to thank me, I didn't really provide you with any value on that one. :o ;)
nhallmark
Quote:
12-21-2007 08:38 AM
Originally Posted by ~Shard~ (Post 4641879) Good luck - and no need to thank me, I didn't really provide you with any value on that one. :o ;)
LOL. I don't know what the issue was, but when I tried to resize the chart windows, they nally loaded :confused: I guess I'm going to have to do that every time :rolleyes: And, of course, Oanda was no help in the matter ;)
Music_Producer
12-26-2007 07:38 PM
Merry Christmas everyone! (or happy holidays - but the same sentiment of course) Here's a little toast to nathan, shard, ocean, britguy, well everyone really.. the regulars and the not-so-regulars. :D Nathan.. no slippage control on Cnx yet (they name it FOK? lol.. yeah i get FOKd every time the spreads go up) Who knows when capital fx will implement it.. but that would be a very welcome feature indeed.
nhallmark
Quote:
12-26-2007 08:36 PM
Originally Posted by Music_Producer (Post 4659358) Merry Christmas everyone! (or happy holidays - but the same sentiment of course) Here's a little toast to nathan, shard, ocean, britguy, well everyone really.. the regulars and the not-so-regulars. :D Nathan.. no slippage control on Cnx yet (they name it FOK? lol.. yeah i get FOKd every time the spreads go up) Who knows when capital fx will implement it.. but that would be a very welcome feature indeed.
Merry Christmas to you too! FOK=Fill Or Kill...i.e. ll at price clicked(or in an acceptable range) or cancel the order...so you don't get FOKd :p Edit: Currenex also has it on their site now... "Limits, at-best, partial lls, ll or kill, stoploss limits" http://www.currenex.com/clients_leveraged_funds.html
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OceanView
Ha ha ha ! That's funny guys :D Currently lost in Vegas. That's lost as in lost my money and lost when I was driving around. This place keeps growing and growing. Population base just passed the 2 Million mark. Shard you still interested in real estate here? Well, don't buy anything right now. Prices are really dropping right now. :mad: My house here has dropped about 25% in just 1 year with no end in sight. :eek: Well back to the casinos :cool: Happy Holidays to everyone, I hope the best for next year's trading.
12-26-2007 09:36 PM
~Shard~
12-26-2007 09:43 PM
Thanks for the warm wishes Music_Producer, I hope this holiday season has been a good one for you as well - in addition to everyone else as well of course! ;) Been busy with important things lately (i.e. family :) ) but will get back into trading tomorrow, slowly... Then I'll be away again for the rst 3 weeks in January, as I'll be on vacation. Trust me, the markets will be the last thing on my mind during that time! :D
~Shard~
Quote:
12-26-2007 09:58 PM
Originally Posted by OceanView (Post 4659780) Shard you still interested in real estate here? Well, don't buy anything right now. Prices are really dropping right now. :mad: My house here has dropped about 25% in just 1 year with no end in sight. :eek:
Nah, I investigated things quite a bit, but decided the timing wasn't right - as you say, prices are still dropping. I've focused on the market right here at home, as I obviously understand it a lot better, I am very good friends with one of the top real estate agents in the city and, well, put simply our market is appreciating here, not depreciating! ;) :D We saw between 30-40% gains last year and another 15% pop is expected this spring alone. I plan on making some money during the next couple of years here on investment properties and getting out before things cool off. The nice thing with our market is that, here at least, it will never crash, it will simply level off for a while - our market has been undervalued for quite some time, is only now catching up and the economy here is booming.
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Plus, real estate here is still affordable for individual investors such as myself to participate. To this end, myself and my wife just bought two 2-bedroom condos located right downtown which we plan on selling later next year. Things look good! :cool:
Quote:
Originally Posted by OceanView (Post 4659780) Well back to the casinos :cool: Happy Holidays to everyone, I hope the best for next year's trading.
Good luck and all the best to you as well. :)
nhallmark
01-04-2008 08:40 AM
Did anyone get in on NFP this morning? :eek: I just watched, personally...better safe than sorry ;) I like the new avatar, Shard! Looks like the Finder is getting really impatient for MWSF :p
Britguy
Yes I got in. It was a great trade. I made over 180pips trading it, and retraces afterwards.
01-05-2008 01:01 AM
Music_Producer
Quote:
01-08-2008 04:22 AM
Originally Posted by Britguy (Post 4699398) Yes I got in. It was a great trade. I made over 180pips trading it, and retraces afterwards.
:eek: See.. most traders just make a living trading the NFP.. you can see how. I've been out for a few days.. down with the u :mad: (and right after I told my niece that I didn't need a u shot.. since I was.. er.. strong.. lol) Right now I want to sleep.. but I'm waiting to see why the Apple store is down :p Edit - Btw, check out what happened to the GBP/JPY after the NFP and unemployment data came out.. more than a 250+pip drop :-)
nhallmark
01-08-2008 12:09 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Britguy (Post 4699398) Yes I got in. It was a great trade. I made over 180pips trading it, and retraces afterwards.
Good Job man! Even after a year, I still don't have the guts to trade NFP :o MP, Shard, and everyone else, what are your thoughts on the situation we're facing in the US right now? From my limited knowledge/experience, it seems that back in August when BNP Paribas "froze" that was a "systemic bank failure", was it not? I'm basing that off of this article... http://www.mises.org/journals/scholar/oberholster.pdf If so, it seems very serious for the entire nancial system. Like I said, I'm very uneducated in this area and I'm just trying to get an idea of what we're in for...with speculation ranging from "It's no big deal" to "It's the end of the world" LOL. Thoughts?
Music_Producer
Wow, that Canadian employment report was a treat to trade :D
01-13-2008 03:06 AM
Nathan.. US economy.. I'm somewhere between ' it's the end of the world' and 'it's all going to be ok'.. but I'm denitely not optimistic. The worst case scenario would be a complete collapse of the currency system that's what scares me.. or hyper-ination. When your $s won't buy you anything - that picture of a woman burning currency notes as rewood, because it wouldn't buy her anything.. always comes back to me. If that happens, you know how gold and other metals will sky-rocket. I think it's always a good idea to diversify some of your savings into precious metals. For the long term at least. What bothers me is all this credit system. It always has bothered me.. from the rst time I landed in the US and realized how people who make $30,000 a year can 'lease' a BMW 5 series.. no sense of savings at all! It's nally caught up with the banks now. It's amazing to see all the big banks asking investors for funds (Citibank, etc) Bank of America just bought CountryWide.. the stupidest decision I would think. What the hell were they thinking?? Also, there seems to be a growing sentiment amongst consumers, to not pay back their debts. It's a 'I don't want to pay my credit card bill.. what will they do?' scenario going on right now. I don't care about a recession.. sometimes you need a recession to correct a 'bubble'. House prices need to come back to pre-2000 levels, etc. Right now we have all the factors that can really threaten a global collapse - in place. I think the events started last July..forget housing, wait till credit card debts become the daily news. It's a little scary. And I don't even want to talk about oil lol.
Street Addict
What program you use?
01-14-2008 12:08 PM
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I went to a show to check out a program. The one I seen was wizetrade. I went home googled it and the rst site i seen under the homepage was informericalscams.com. So, that scared me away from them. The only thing I liked about them was the commmand trade. I like to play news event the only thing I'm using is the widgets charts and paper trading like that.
OceanView
Quote:
01-14-2008 01:19 PM
Originally Posted by Street Addict (Post 4749629) I went to a show to check out a program. The one I seen was wizetrade. I went home googled it and the rst site i seen under the homepage was informericalscams.com. So, that scared me away from them. The only thing I liked about them was the commmand trade. I like to play news event the only thing I'm using is the widgets charts and paper trading like that.
If you read the entire thread, you will know what to do. :D
Music_Producer
01-15-2008 05:35 AM
Beyond beautiful trades today.. US retail sales came out terrible.. PPI also came out negative.. and empire manufacturing was down! Triple shocker - I traded GBP/JPY since it is so sensitive to US reports these days. 60 + pips with big lots :D I'm looking for a DOW collapse today ..unless by some miracle traders prop it up. Hell, maybe AAPL will make the DOW go up.. oh, and I can't sleep anyway.. have to wait for the macworld!!!
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Mac Forums - Anyone here into FOREX?

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Naturally. I do that too. ;) :eek:

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It's because Queenslanders can't spell "BEER."

Why does that sound like an infomercial? :rolleyes:

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Originally Posted by Music_Producer $216/month on a $1000 investment ain't bad eh? :D

Chip NoVaMac Music_Producer

06-23-2006 10:01 PM 06-23-2006 10:09 PM

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Arghh sell your stocks...... :p

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It's because Queenslanders can't spell "BEER."

Let me take a crack at it: B-U-D-erm, ****. :(

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Thanks! (And extra thank you to Music_Producer for your reply!)

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How did you do?

Originally Posted by njmac How did you do?

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Originally Posted by njmac How did you do?

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Its going to be a nice weekend :D

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Its going to be a nice weekend :D

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