Top 20 Global Mega Trends and Their Impact on Business, Cultures and Society

Presented by Sarwant Singh Partner

Agenda

Presentation of Top 10 Mega Trends

1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10.

Urbanization: Mega Cities, Mega Regions, Mega Corridors, Smart Cities E-Mobility Social Trends: Geo Socialization, Generation Y and Reverse Brain Drain SPACE JAM: Congested Satellite Orbits World War 3: Cyber Warfare RoboSlaves Virtual World: Fluid Interfaces and Haptic Technology Innovating to Zero ! : Zero Emission Technologies Emerging Transportation Corridors Health, Wellness and Well-Being

Overview of Next Top 10 Mega Trends Key Strategic Conclusions Workshop : How To Apply Mega Trends Within an Organisation to Develop Growth Strategies Q&A Session
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Urbanization

Three Main Trends in Urbanization: Development of Mega Cities, Mega Regions and Mega Corridors

MEGA CITY
City With A Minimum Population Of 5 Million EXAMPLE: Greater London

MEGA REGIONS
Cities Combining With Suburbs To Form Regions. (Population over 10 Million) EXAMPLE: Johannesburg and Pretoria (forming JoToria)

MEGA CORRIDORS
The Corridors Connecting Two Major Cities or Mega Regions EXAMPLE: Hong KongShenzhen-Guangzhou in China (Population 120 Million)

By 2020, We Will See Development of Mega City Corridors and Networked, Integrated and Branded Cities
1950s Urbanisation 2020s : Branded Cities
Ring Road Motorway, Living Areas growing outside the ring road as seen in London

Creation of the historic centre and districts

2000s Suburbanisation

Source: Frost & Sullivan

Urban sprawl, first highways and ring road

2015s Network City

Megacity Trend City borders will expand out of suburbs to include daughter cities. The Core City will enclose multiple downtowns. Multiple Transportation Models will be used and more than 50% will use public transportation Most offices moved to the first belt suburbs except non cost sensitive activities: city centres becoming shopping areas (small scale deliveries) for expensive goods and living areas for double income, no kids households.

Third suburban area and cities along the highways created, ring road overblown by the urban sprawl

Smart Cities Green Replaced by SMART Concepts

Smart Diamond to define Smart city
S Governance S Citizen S Business

S City Planning

S Buildings

S ICT

S Mobility S Information Technology

S Energy

Source: Frost & Sullivan

Over 40 Global Cities to be SMART Cities in 2020 - More than 50% of Smart cities of 2025 will be from Europe and North America.
China and India to see over 50 New Sustainable Cities

Amsterdam London Boulder Tianjin GIFT San Francisco Gteborg Oslo Reykjavik Clonburris St Davids Stockholm Hammarby Sjstad Copenhagen Freiburg Paris Destiny Babcock Ranch Bogota Barcelona Dongtan Changsha Khajuraho Pune Kochi Meixi Lake Singapore City Songdo

Vancouver Seattle Portland Treasure Island Coyote Springs Arcosanti

Montreal Toronto

Legend Cities built from scratch Existing eco cities Existing eco megacities

Waitakere, N.Z. Curitiba Cape Town Masdar Moreland, Australia

Source: Frost & Sullivan

Case Study - Lavasa (India) Smart Township

Private infrastructure companies in India building integrated township that offer smart living and working

Indias first and largest hill city to evolve over next 12 years. This integrated township is built across 12,500 acres at a cost of Rs 1,400 billion Dasve the first town will be ready by end 2010/11.

Smart Market Opportunity : Convergence of Technology Will Lead to Convergence of Competition

Energy/Infrastructure Players
T&D Technology Power Electronics Renewable Energy Integrated Distribution Management Substation Automation AMI-Enabled Metering Etc.

IP Networks Digital Technology Analysis Software Wireless Communication Technology Integration Network Security Etc.

Building Automation Demand-Side Management Connectivity of devices Monitoring and Sensing Smart Grid Integration Etc.

IT Players

Automation/Building Control Players

Source: Frost & Sullivan.

E-Mobility

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E-Mobility : Over 40 Million Electric 2 Wheelers and 4 Wheelers will be Sold Annually Around the Globe in 2020

Total 30 million 2 Wheelers (2020)

Total 10 Million 4 Wheelers (2020)

Sanyo Enacle

XM 3000 Electric Moped

The GEM Peapod

The Smith Newton

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Electric Vehicle Market Eco-System Provides Opportunity to Enter New Fields

Utilities

Integrator
(e.g. Better Place)

OEMs

Charging Station Manufacturers

Government

System/Battery Manufacturers

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Electric Vehicles Will Usher New Mobility Business Model : Future Leasing Models To Sell 75% Of Vehicles; The Rest 25% Sold Traditionally
Business Model 1 TYPE COVER ENERGY CONTRACT SUBSIDY MONTHLY LEASE Energy Package Partial battery lease + Electricity Monthly Bill NA NA Up to 150 Business Model 2 Maintenance Package Energy Package+ Insurance+ Maintenance Flat: Max 2000km/month NA NA Up to 350 Business Model 3 Part Subsidy Maintenance Package+ Discount Flat: 25,000km/year 4 years 50% car price 500- 800 Business Model 4 Full Subsidy Maintenance Package+ 100% Discount Flat: 30,000km/year 7 years Free car ~ 900- 1500

Source: Better Place, Frost & Sullivan

Other Possible Leasing models Flexible Mileage Flexible Contract Unlimited Miles Max number of miles Pay as you go

The customer opts for the number of years and flexible mileage- customized lease

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Example of Products/Services Portfolio That Can be Offered by an Integrator in the E-Mobility Market
Charging Stations Batteries E-Mobility Vehicles Electricity Telematics & other value added services

Services

Manufacturing & Sales Installation & Maintenance

Battery Leasing Model Refurbishing Recycling Battery 2nd life Battery Swapping Extend to other E-mobility solutions

Energy Subscription Packages Extended Emobility solution e.g. vehicle sharing

Subscription based Energy service Scheme

Data Aggregator ( working with other partners) Battery management services Advanced booking of charging stations

Possible Revenue Streams

Charge Payment Program / Subscription based services Revenues from value added services Premium revenues via Renewable Energy Vs Non Renewable Energy Premium revenues via Peak Power Vs Off Peak Charging Level 1 Vs Level 2 Vs Level 3 Charging

Load Management

Offering AfterSales services

investment in renewable energy such as wind farms and gain carbon credits Premium revenues via Peak Power Vs Off Peak Charging Premium revenues via Renewable Energy Vs Non Renewable Energy

Market green solutions such as Solar panels to EMobility client base

V2V and V2G Communication

Added value service (POIs, Diagnostics, etc)

Battery Integration

Recycling and Refurbishing

Source: Frost & Sullivan

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Social Trends

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Six Degrees Apart: Geo Socialization in 2020

Used For: Meet Ups, Restaurant and Nightclub Reviews, Concert Events Used For: Digital Marketing: Receiving Updates on Promotion and Offers

Used For: Networking in Business Conferences: Updates on Potential Contacts Used For: Local Real Estate News, Geo Socializing with Friends

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Reverse Brain Drain and Huge Shortage of CXO Positions In BRIC Nations Will Make Us Look For Opportunities Overseas

Canada United Kingdom United States

Russia

Japan

UAE Brazil India

Malaysia

Australia S. Africa High Low

Degree of Indians and Chinese living abroad

High

Low

Degree of NRIs and Overseas Chinese returning to Homeland (Reverse Brain Drain)

IMPACT

Steady flow of foreign professionals and migrants returning back home to fill vacancies for CXO positions Salary on par with developed countries (in terms of purchasing power) and even more benefits 2 million BPO- KPO jobs for foreign nationals from China, Poland, Philippines,

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World Population in 2020 : 2.56 Billion Population in Age Group 15 to 34 (currently Gen Y) Important Customer of the Future
2010 World Population: Breakdown by Region (Global), 2020
Around Around 37% 37% of of Gen Gen Y Y Population Population Will Will Live Live in in India India and and China China Alone Alone

2020 7.55 Billion

1.2

6.83 Billion

2.1

2.56

1.69

Note: Gen Y : Population between 15 34 Years today

Source: US Census Bureau, 2010 and Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations

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Generation Y: Goods and Services Catered to Values, Beliefs, Interest and Lifestyle
Personalization and Individualization
Personalized Search and News

Techno Savvy and Connected 24 X 7

Gaming Gizmos

Civic and Environmentally Friendly

Eco- Transport

Demanding and Impatient Fast and the Furious

Instant Text Messaging

Smart Phones Social Networking Profiles Bag-For-Life (Paper Bags Instead of Plastic) Instant Chat

Facebook-on-the Move

Personalized Products Paperless Banking Microblogs Speed Oriented Gaming (Car Racing)

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Technology

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New Satellites Launched By 2020: Over 900 Satellites to Be Launched Globally This Decade Creating Multiple Innovative Applications
By By 2020, 2020, there there will will be be approximately approximately 927 927 Satellites Satellites (Communication (Communication 405; 405; Earth Earth Observation Observation 151; 151; Navigation Navigation 85; 85; Reconnaissance Reconnaissance 212 212 and and R&D R&D 75) 75) GNSS GNSS Enabled Enabled Applications: Applications: Navigation Navigation (Civil, (Civil, Military) Military) Broadband Broadband Internet Internet and and Wireless Wireless Network Network GNSS GNSS based based medical medical monitoring and monitoring and drug drug delivery delivery system system Automated Automated guidance guidance of of machines, machines, real-time real-time structure structure monitoring, monitoring, logistics logistics and and site site management management Galileo Galileo -- intended intended to to provide more provide more precise precise measurements measurements than than GPS GPS or GLONASS or GLONASS China China developing developing Beidou Beidou

Automobile Automobile Navigation Navigation and and Intelligent Intelligent Traffic Traffic Control Control System System Applications Applications

Commercial Commercial market market will will be be driven driven by by broadcast; broadcast; Mobile Mobile Satellite Satellite Services Services (MSS); (MSS); voice voice and and data data applications, applications, bundling bundling IPTV IPTV

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World War 3 : With Advancement in Technology, Information Warfare to be the Next Domain of Conflict

Space Photographic Satellites, GPS, Communications, Ballistic Missile Defence, Signals, Astronauts Air ISR Platforms, Combat Aircraft, Transport, Helicopters, Maritime Surveillance, Communications, Airmen Naval Land Combat Platforms, Communications, ISR, Transport, Sailors Information Environment Physical, Cognitive, Informational Dimensions Combat Vehicles, Transport, Communications, Soldiers

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Future RoboSlave: Pervasive Robotic Technology in 2020 That Will Act as a Slave in Everyday Life
Robots as Pets Robots for Household Chores

Robots for Companionship

Robots to Wait on Hand and Foot

Robots To Help With Strategic Planning and Business Robots as Nannies

Robots as Waiters

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Artificial Intelligence and Robotics: Future Machine Technology With Multiple Applications
Welding Drilling Robots in Space Medical Robots Performing Low Invasive Surgery

Robotic Industrial Applications in 2020

Material Handling

Packaging

Transportation Robots

Military Robots

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Virtual World 2020: 3D Simulated Environment for Interaction and Experience Impacting Personal Mobility
Virtual Shopping Allowing Customers to Try Products without leaving their homes Virtual Surgeries and Medical Training Virtual Business Conferences

Virtual Classes and Laboratories and Daily 3D Field Trips to Different Countries and Planets

Social Networking: 3D Avatars Enabling People to Lead Multiple Lives

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Innovating to Zero!

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Innovating To ZERO: Snapshot of a Zero Concept World in 2020

Emerging Technologies Innovating to Zero Breaches of Security, Zero Accidents, Zero Fatalities and Zero Emissions in 2020
Zero Waste/ Emissions from Factories

Zero Debts

Complete Recyclability from Households (Cradle to Cradle Concept)

Zero Defects Zero Breaches of Security Zero Emissions from Cars

Zero Accidents

Zero Crime Rates

M65B-18

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Possible Zero Emission Technologies in Power Generation Innovating Toward Reducing CO2 Emissions in 2020
Travelling Wave Reactor (TWR) Wide deployment of TWRs could enable projected global stockpiles of depleted uranium to sustain 80% of the worlds population at U.S. per capita energy usages for over a millennium Third Generation Bio Fuels (Algae and Exotic Bio Fuels) By 2022, algae biofuels will be the largest biofuel category overall, accounting for 40 billion of the estimated 109 billion gallons of biofuels produced.

INNOVATING
Geothermal Energy Share of Geothermal Electricity in total electricity produced in 2020 is 1.5%

Wind Energy To Account for 1,900,000 MW of electricity production in 2020

TO

ZERO!

Solar PV Cells Capacity of Solar Power to Increase from 21,540 MW in 2020 to 630,000 MW in 2040

Ocean Energy To supply approximately 10 percent of the world's electricity needs by 2020

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Infrastructure Development

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Integration of the Trans Siberian Rail into Eurasian Rail Network Will Result in Industrial and Business Hubs Along the Railroad
Development of Trans-Siberian railroad will have significant socio economic and business impact to Russia

Yekaterinburg

Sredneuralsk

Verhnya Pyshma Berezoviy

(Warsaw, Berlin)

St. Petersburg

Helsinki
Minsk

Severka Shyrokaya Rechka Koltsovo

Kaliningrad

Kiev

Moscow Nizhny Novgorod

Yekaterinburg
Astrakhan
(Bucharest, Aleksandrupolis)

Novosibirsk

Krasnoyarsk Irkutsk

Khabarovsk

ITC North South Trans-Siberian Railway Pan European N 2 Pan European N 9 Vladivostok Baikal-Amur Mainline

DRAFT VERSION

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High Speed Rail to Come to US : Overview of Future High Speed Rail Projects in US
California to connect Bay Area with LA through an ambitious $42bn program with construction starting in 2 years

Impact to Personal Mobility 1.Air travel will diminish rapidly between the high speed rail link cities 2.Train operators could start offering integrated transport e.g. Car sharing 3.Will take congestion off highways, people will drive less long distance 4.Attractive cities for car sharing 5.Small city car sales will grow in these cities

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Healthcare

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If Current Trends Hold, By 2050 Health Care Spending Will Almost Double Claiming 20% 30% Of GDP For Some Economies
Private Per Capita Spending (2007) Public Per Capita Spending (2007) Estimated Spending as % of GDP in 2050

$7,000 $6,000 $5,000

$3,517

Spending as % of GDP (2007)

30.0%

Unsustainable Levels!!!

25.0%

20.0% $4,000 $3,000 $2,000

$2,884 $2,493 $717 $1,684 $854 $914 $680 $989 $760 $1,018 $494 $1,165 $449

15.0%
$352 $593 $431 $514

10.0%
$646

$3,647 $2,665 $2,451 $2,693 $2,337 $2,527 $2,110 $2,614 $1,927 $2,469 $2,371 $1,938 $1,927 $1,829

$1,000 $0

5.0%
$1,609

0.0%

In almost all countries worldwide, per capita healthcare spending is rising faster than per capita income. No country can spend an ever-rising share of its output on health care, indefinitely. Spending growth must eventually fall in line with growth in per capita income.
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Health Economics Dictate a Shift in Spending Away From Treating and Towards Predicting, Diagnosing and Monitoring
Healthcare Spending by Type of Activity
100% Monitor, 10% 90% 80% 70% 60% Treat, 70% 50% 40% Diagnose, 27% 30% 20% 10% 0% Diagnose, 15% Predict, 5% 2007 Predict, 9% 2012 2025
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Monitor, 12%

Monitor, 16%

Treat, 35% Treat, 60%

Diagnose, 19% Predict, 22%

Overview of Next Top 10 Trends

Women Women Empowerment Empowerment and and Women Women CEOs CEOs Power to the Middle Class Power to the Middle Class Reverse Reverse Brain Brain Drain Drain and and CXO CXO Positions Positions in in Developing Economies Developing Economies
INFRASTRUCTURE

SOCIAL

Future Future Investment Investment in in Infrastructure Infrastructure : : Power, Power, Water Water and and Transport Transport

ECONOMY

Beyond Beyond BRIC: BRIC: The The Next Next Game Game Changers Changers New Shores: Emerging Outsourcing New Shores: Emerging Outsourcing Hotspots Hotspots Future Future Global Global 500 500 Companies Companies by by Region Region New Trade Zones New Trade Zones

BUSINESS

New New Business Business Models Models

HEALTH & WELLNESS

SMART FACTORY

SMART SMART Clouds: Clouds: The The Next Next in in Cloud Cloud Computing Computing Future Future of of Consumer Consumer Electronics Electronics Wireless Intelligence Wireless Intelligence Future Future Broadband Broadband Applications Applications Innovative Innovative Technologies Technologies of of the the Future: Future:

TECHNOLOGY

From From Fat Fat to to Fit: Fit: Health, Health, Wellness and Wellness and Well Well Being Being

Factory Factory of of the the Future: Future: SMART SMART and GREEN and GREEN

Global Global Power Power Generation Generation Trends Trends

Healthcare, Healthcare, Chemicals, Chemicals, Energy Energy Environment, Environment, Automotive Automotive Aerospace Aerospace and and Defence Defence ICT, Building ICT, Building Technologies Technologies Measurement Measurement and and Instrumentation Instrumentation Electronics Electronics and and Security Security

ENERGY

INDUSTRY

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Key Strategic Conclusions

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Key Strategic Conclusions

1. Mega trends are connected and inter-wined which suggests synergetic opportunities between them 2. It is important to understand the eco-system of the mega-trend and the elements of the value chain which have most profitability 3. All these trends are global and have global ramifications thereby offering scalable opportunities 4. These forces are changing rapidly and bringing new competencies into play at half the life-cycle speed of the past decade 5. Organisations need Mega Trend champions and teams within their organisation structure to best exploit the opportunities
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Workshop From Macro to Micro

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Workshop Objectives and Agenda

WORKSHOP AGENDA (2 Hours 30 Minutes)

Workshop Aims: To present and familiarize audience with F&S Mega Trends To evaluate growth opportunities by identifying impact on your industry, region, market, product, technology, and personal life

30 Mins: Introduction and Summary of Mega Trends

B

2 Hours: Workshop 30 Mins: Brainstorming and Completion of Templates (Exercise 1 -2) 30 Mins: Discussion of Opportunities (Exercise 3) 30 Mins: Presentation by 2 to 3 Selected Teams 15 Mins: Wrap up

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From Macro to Micro: How To Take Mega Trends from Information to Analysing New Opportunities
Macro
Mega Trend
Selected Trends That Impact Your Business And Markets

Micro

Analysis of Opportunities and Unmet Needs

Example: Mega City electric cars with small turning radius, autonomous parking in busy cities, Facebook on wheels, seamless switching from home to car

Example: Urbanization, Satellites

Sub Trend
A Sub Layer of Trends that Has Wide Ranging Impact

Impact on Future Product/ Technology Impact to Your Industry

Visualizing The Roadmap Of These Critical Forces Through Scenario Building and Macro Economic Forecasts
Example: New Product Opportunity - New Mega City Cars, Car sharing, New Technology Opportunities Connected car , e.g. Internet Radio

Example: Three concepts of urbanization will emerge: megacities, mega regions and mega corridors. Smart Cities. Civilian satellites means high speed broadband, wireless and 4G and free wi-fi in public places/cities

Example: People in future will need personal mobility not necessarily cars to commute to work. This will lead to need for integrated mobility combining all forms of transport including cars

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Workshop Steps

S1

S2

S3

S4

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Workshop Exercises
Each Team will Complete the Following Exercises

Exercise 1

Exercise 2

Exercise 3

Exercise 4 (Home Work)

Group Activities Followed By Presentation of Selected 2 3 Teams

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Sample Exercise Templates to be Completed

Ex. 1
(Identify Top 10 Mega Trends) 1. Mega Cities Impact on BU (Automotive) Polarization of Passenger Cars Sizes Creation of Demand for Small cars and City Electric Cars Mega Cities Will Give Rise to Multi-Modal Mobility creating a market for mobility integrators Integrated Mobility and On-Demand Solutions will rise Market for Sustainable Car-Sharing will Evolve Transit Oriented Development Air travel will diminish rapidly between the high speed rail link cities Train operators could start offering integrated transport e.g. Car sharing Will take congestion off highways, people will drive less long distance Attractive cities for car sharing Small city car sales will grow in these cities

Group Name : Industry :

Ex. 2
Impact on Region BRIC Countries to become major sales powerhouse for Vehicles Cities from Developing Economies will witness growth in use of private vehicles Mega Cities in Developed Economies will witness reduction of private vehicle

Ex. 3
Growth Opportunities : Product & Technology Moving toward Greener Cities will lead to adoption of more Eco-Technologies (EV) Down Sizing of Engines, Vehicle Weight Reduction, New technologies - Turbo Chargers, Start-Stop Systems, Stop and go systems in cities, Low turning radius cars, Internet radio in cars

2. High Speed Rail

3 4 5
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Discussions

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For Questions and More Information

Sarwant Singh Partner Practice Director, Automotive and Transportation Direct: + 44 207 915 7843 Mobile: +44 7961 771545 Email : sarwant.singh@frost.com

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