Richard Suttmeier is the Chief Market Strategist at www.ValuEngine.com. ValuEngine is a fundamentally-based quant research firm in Melbourne, FL.

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March 20, 2014 The line in the sand is 16245 on the Dow Industrial Average.

Volatility following the FOMC Statement pushed the major equity averages down sharply but the losses were cut into the close. The Dow Industrial Average traded as low as 16126 and then rebounded to its semiannual pivot at 16245 before closing below it. A weekly close above 16245 indicates that the major equity averages can still set new highs as my semiannual risky level is 16860. The downside given a weekly close below 16245 on the Dow is for the Nasdaq to decline to semiannual value levels at 3930 and 3920 by the end of June. In-between are semiannual pivots at 1797.3 and 1764.4 on the S&P 500, 7376 and 7245 on Dow Transports and 1133.29 and 1130.79 on the Russell 2000. The Dow Industrial Average remains below its all-time high set on Dec. 31 at 16,588.25. The S&P 500 is below its all-time intraday high at 1883.57 set on March 7. The Nasdaq is below its multiyear intraday high at 4371.71 set on March 6. The Dow Transportation Average is below its all-time high at 7627.44 set on March 7. The Russell 2000 is below its all-time high at 1212.82 set on March 4. Dow Industrials: (16,222) Daily, weekly and annual value levels are 16,061, 15,660, 14,835 and 13,467 with a semiannual pivot at 16,245, the Dec. 31 all-time intraday high at 16,588.25 and monthly, quarterly and semiannual risky levels at 16,644, 16,761 and 16,860. The weekly chart is positive with the five-week MMA at 16,166. S&P 500 (1860.8) Daily, weekly, semiannual and annual value levels are 1844.9, 1820.1, 1797.3, 1764.4, 1539.1 and 1442.1 with the March 7 all-time intraday high at 1883.57, and quarterly and monthly risky levels at 1896.0 and 1930.7. The weekly chart is positive but overbought with the fiveweek MMA at 1841.2. NASDAQ (4308) Quarterly, daily, weekly, semiannual and annual value levels are 4274, 4264, 4247, 3930, 3920, 3471 and 3063 with the March 6 multiyear intraday high at 4371.71 and monthly risky level at 4567. The weekly chart is positive but overbought with the five-week MMA at 4241. NASDAQ 100 (NDX) (3683) Daily, weekly, semiannual and annual value levels are 3656, 3655, 3456, 3458, 3078 and 2669 with a quarterly pivot at 3714, the March 6 multiyear intraday high at 3738.32 and monthly risky level at 3925. The weekly chart is positive but overbought with the fiveweek MMA at 3635. Dow Transports (7550) Daily, weekly, semiannual, quarterly and annual value levels are 7498, 7305, 7376, 7245, 7086, 6249 and 5935 with the March 7 all-time intraday high at 7627.44 and monthly risky level at 7802. The weekly chart is positive with the five-week MMA at 7414. Russell 2000 (1195.66) Daily, quarterly, weekly, semiannual and annual value levels are 1179.28, 1180.35, 1154.81, 1133.29, 1130.79, 966.72 and 879.39, the March 4 all-time intraday high at 1212.82

and monthly risky level at 1253.12. The weekly chart is positive but overbought with the five-week MMA at 1172.08. The SOX (576.69) Daily, weekly, monthly, quarterly, semiannual and annual value levels are 569.15, 567.84, 561.69, 536.98, 548.36, 490.52, 371.58 and 337.74 with the March 19 multiyear intraday high at 580.85. The weekly chart is positive but overbought with the five-week MMA at 557.39. Dow Utilities: (517.24) Monthly, semiannual, annual and quarterly value levels are 510.88, 504.74, 497.53 and 496.84 with daily and semiannual pivots at 522.35 and 524.37 and weekly and annual risky levels at 534.54 and 548.70. The weekly chart is positive but overbought with the five-week MMA at 512.81. The yield on the US Treasury 10-Year note (2.771%) is above its 21-day, 50-day and 200-day SMAs at 2.709%, 2.745% and 2.680% after testing its quarterly pivot at 2.628% last Friday. The weekly chart shifts to negative favoring higher yields given a close this week above its five-week MMA at 2.738% with its 200-week SMA at 2.417%. The yield on the US Treasury 30-Year bond (3.652%) is below its 21-day, 50-day and 200-day SMAs at 3.656%, 3.689% and 3.701%. The weekly chart shows this yield below its five-week MMA at 3.675% and still sliding down its 200-week SMA at 3.538%. Comex Gold ($1341.39) is below its 21-day SMA at $1344.0 but above its 50-day and 200-day SMAs at $1294.8 and $1301.6 on the lookout for a golden cross where the 50-day moves above the 200-day. This weeks high at $1392.6 was pulled down by my quarterly and monthly pivots at $1385.0 and $1373.0. My semiannual risky level is $1710.6. The weekly chart is positive but overbought with its 5week MMA at $1318.3 and the 200-week SMA at $1493.5. Nymex Crude Oil ($99.13) is above its 50-day SMA at $98.68 but below its 21-day and 200-day SMAs at $101.11 and $100.30. The weekly chart is negative with its five-week MMA at $99.67 and the 200-week SMA at $93.42. The Euro (1.3819) has a neutral daily chart with the currency above its 21-day, 50-day and 200-day SMAs at 1.3809, 1.3701 and 1.3494 with my monthly risky level at 1.4112. The weekly chart is positive with its five-week MMA at 1.3768 and the 200-week SMA at 1.3337. To learn more about ValuEngine check out www.ValuEngine.com. Any comments or questions contact me at RSuttmeier@gmail.com.