CHAPTER 16 GENERALIZING A SAMPLES FINDINGS TO ITS POPULATION AND TESTING HYPOTHESES ABOUT PERCENTS AND MEANS

LEARNING OBJECTIVES To distinguish statistics from parameters To understand the concept of statistical inference To learn how to estimate a population mean or percentage To test a hypothesis about a population mean or percentage To learn how to perform and interpret statistical inference with SPSS

CHAPTER OUTLINE SAMPLE STATISTICS AND POPULATION PARAMETERS THE CONCEPTS OF INFERENCE AND STATISTICAL INFERENCE PARAMETER ESTIMATION Sample Statistic Standard Error Confidence Intervals How to Interpret an Estimated Population Mean or Percentage Range THE HOBBITS CHOICE SURVEY: HOW TO OBTAIN A CONFIDENCE INTERVAL FOR A PERCENTAGE WITH SPSS THE HOBBITS CHOICE SURVEY: HOW TO OBTAIN A CONFIDENCE INTERVAL FOR A MEAN WITH SPSS HYPOTHESIS TESTS Test of the Hypothesi ed Population Parameter !alue "irectional Hypotheses How to Interpret Hypothesis Testing HOW TO USE SPSS TO TEST A HYPOTHESIS FOR A PERCENT HOW TO USE SPSS TO TEST A HYPOTHESIS FOR A MEAN

#$%

Chapter &$' (enerali ing a Sample)s *indings to Its Population and Testing Hypotheses about Percents and Means

KEY TERMS Statistics Inference Parameter estimation Tests of significant differences Standard error of a mean Confidence intervals *ormula for population parameter estimation Hypothesis Intuitive hypothesis testing +lternative hypothesis "irectional hypothesis TEACHING SUGGESTIONS &, + way to tie concepts in different chapters together is to remind students of the sample si e-sample accuracy relationship that is depicted on the graph in chapter &., This graph was used to introduce the relationship of a sample)s /statistical0 accuracy and its si e, In chapter &$1 the sample has been gathered1 and the statistics such as mean and percent findings have been calculated, Chapter &$ brings the sample accuracy concept full circle as the accuracy level is now being used to determine estimates of the population parameters, #, The effect of sample si e on a confidence interval can be demonstrated with a simple spreadsheet program such as E2cel or 3otus &-#-., 3et)s assume that p has been found to be 4561 what would be the confidence intervals under successively larger sample si es7 The following table is a spreadsheet-li8e comparison for 9:6 confidence intervals, Hypothesis testing Hypothesi ed population parameter Sampling distribution concept Parameters Statistical inference Hypothesis test Standard error Standard error of a percentage Most commonly used level of confidence

&#

Chapter &$' (enerali ing a Sample)s *indings to Its Population and Testing Hypotheses about Percents and Means

Sam !" S#$" &55 #:5 :55 &555 &:55 #555

L%&"' L#m#( .5,46 ..,96 .:,%6 .%,56 .%,:6 .%,96

"' L#m#( 49,$6 4$,&6 44,.6 4.,56 4#,:6 4#,&6

Ra)*" &9,#6 &#,&6 ;,$6 $,&6 :,56 4,.6

., The effect of variability in the sample statistic can be illustrated in the same way, 3et)s hold the sample si e at #:51 and compare different si es of p,

S(a(#+(#, - . :5 45 .5 #5 &5 :

L%&"' L#m#( 4.,;6 ..,96 #4,.6 &:,56 $,.6 #,.6

"' L#m#( :$,#6 4$,&6 .:,%6 #:,56 &.,%6 %,%6

Ra)*" &#,46 &#,&6 &&,46 9,96 %,46 :,46

4, <ecause SPSS combines a mean confidence interval and a mean hypothesis test in its =ne Sample t Test procedure1 students may become confused with the >mean difference? and >9:6 Confidence Interval of the "ifference? information provided by SPSS when testing a hypothesi ed mean, /That is1 when the Test !alue is set for any number other than the default ero,0 It may be necessary to emphasi e that these are of no practical value when performing a mean hypothesis test with SPSS, :, Some te2tboo8s1 particularly statistics te2tboo8s1 e2plicitly state the alternative hypothesis, @e do not do so in our te2tboo81 but we have included a Mar8eting Research Insight on >@hat Is an +lternative Hypothesis7? Instructors who believe students should understand the concept of an alternative hypothesis may wish to emphasi e this MRI or otherwise add material of their own on the concept of an alternative hypothesis,

&.

Chapter &$' (enerali ing a Sample)s *indings to Its Population and Testing Hypotheses about Percents and Means

$, @ith SPSS for @indows available to them1 student may not appreciate doing hand calculations of confidence intervals or hypothesis tests, These calculations are more than tedious e2ercises, The point to them is to have students see what is in the numerator and what is in the denominator of each formula1 so they can understand what is driving the computed value, Typically1 the sample si e is always in the denominator1 while the hypothesi ed value and sample statistic are in the numerator, 3arger sample si es drive the computed value /e,g,1 a t-value0 downA whereas1 larger differences between the sample statistic and the hypothesi ed value will drive it up, %, There are a few1 but not many1 hand calculation end-of-chapter Buestions, It may be beneficial to devote part of a class to in-class e2ercises where students calculate confidence intervals or test hypotheses using the end-of-chapter Buestions or Buestions generated by the instructor, +s8 students to bring their hand calculators, Having each student wor8 independently in a class setting and providing the step-bystep calculations will force students to use the formulas correctly, ;, This chapter is the first encounter for students with SPSS statistical test output, The te2t describes each output e2ample in some detail and provides annotated output pagesA however1 much information is contained in each case1 and students can become confused, It is recommended that instructors use overhead transparencies or other visual aids and review the relevant aspects of each output page during class time, Student should be oriented on where to find vital information such as mean1 sample si e1 test statistic1 and significance, +lso1 they should be instructed on how to interpret the findings, 9, Csing an SPSS data set other than those provided in the te2t can be beneficial and a good test of how well students can adapt their learning to a new situation, Sources of these data sets can be' consulting data1 prior semester student team research proDects1 or simulated data sets, ACTIVE LEARNING E/ERCISES Ca!,0!a(" +%m" C%)1#2")," I)("'3a!+ This e2ercise provides students with e2perience in calculating confidence intervals for percentages and for a mean, In all cases1 the sample si e is &15551 and they are to use the formulas provided in the chapter,

&4

Chapter &$' (enerali ing a Sample)s *indings to Its Population and Testing Hypotheses about Percents and Means

Formula for population parameter Estimation (Mean) @here

x

x z s x

E sample mean value for 9:6 or 996 level of confidence

z E

s x E standard error of the mean

Formula for population parameter Estimation (Percentage) @here p E sample percentage

z E
sp

p z s p

value for 9:6 or 996 level of confidence

E standard error of the percentage

40"+(#%)

Sam !" S(a(#+(#,-+.

567 C%)1#2")," I)("'3a! L%&"' 8%0)2a'9

p z s p = :5 &,9$ F = :5 &,:; = 4;,46 p z s p = .5 &,9$ F = .5 &,4: = #;,:6 .5 F /&55 .50 &555 :5 F /&55 :50 &555

"' 8%0)2a'9

Have you heard of satellite radio7 If yes1 do

:56 responded >yes? .56

p z s p = :5 +&,9$ F = :5 +&,:; = :&,$6 p z s p = .5 +&,9$ F = .5 +&,4: = .&,:6 .5 F /&55 .50 &555 :5 F /&55 :50 &555

you own a responded satellite >yes?

&:

Chapter &$' (enerali ing a Sample)s *indings to Its Population and Testing Hypotheses about Percents and Means

radio7 If you own satellite radio1

+verage of &55,% minutesA standard

x z s x = &55,% &,9$ F = &55,% ,%9 = 99,9 #: &555

x z s x = &55,% +&,9$ F = &55,% + ,%9 = &5&,: #: &555

about how deviation of many minutes of satellite radio did you listen to last wee87 U+" SPSS 1%' a C%)1#2")," I)("'3a! 1%' a M"a) This e2ercise reBuires students to use the entire sample for the Hobbit)s Choice Restaurant survey data set and to have SPSS compute the confidence interval,
One-Sample Statistics " How many total dollars do you spend per month in restaurants (for your meals only ! 400 #ean $150.0525 $td. %e&iation $92.70629 $td. 'rror #ean $4.63531

#:,5 minutes

&$

Chapter &$' (enerali ing a Sample)s *indings to Its Population and Testing Hypotheses about Percents and Means
One-Sample Test 1est 2alue 3 0 95. /onfiden+e 0nter&al of the %ifferen+e ,ower -pper $140.939( $159.1652

t How many total dollars do you spend per month in restaurants (for your meals only ! 32.372

df 399

$i). (2*tailed .000

#ean %ifferen+e $150.0525

How does this confidence interval compare to the one we found for the li8ely patrons on the Hobbit)s Choice Restaurant7 Compared to a 9:6 confidence interval of G#$$,99 to G#9$,9#1 the discovered one is much lower due to a lower mean and narrower due to the larger sample si e, U+" SPSS 1%' a H9 %(:"+#+ T"+( 1%' a M"a) Students will find that there is support for the hypothesis of G&; using the full sample, The SPSS output is below,
One-Sample Statistics " 4hat would you e5pe+t an a&era)e e&enin) meal entree item alone to 6e pri+ed! 340 #ean $1(.(353 $td. %e&iation $9.(27(4 $td. 'rror #ean $.53299

One-Sample Test 1est 2alue 3 1( 95. /onfiden+e 0nter&al of the %ifferen+e ,ower -pper *$.2131 $1.((37

t 4hat would you e5pe+t an a&era)e e&enin) meal entree item alone to 6e pri+ed! 1.567

df 339

$i). (2*tailed .11(

#ean %ifferen+e $.(3529

&%

Chapter &$' (enerali ing a Sample)s *indings to Its Population and Testing Hypotheses about Percents and Means

ANSWERS TO END;OF;CHAPTER 4UESTIONS &, What essential factors are taken into consideration when statistical inference takes place? Review Buestion, Students will need to identify the factors noted in the discussion and formulas, Statistical inference is a set of procedures where the sample si e and sample statistics are used to ma8e estimates of population parameters, The 8ey factors ta8en into consideration are the sample si e1 the sample statistic1 and the variability found in the sample, The sample si e and variability are used to estimate the amount of sampling error, #, What is meant by parameter estimation, and what function does it perform for a researcher? Review Buestion, This Buestion reBuires students to distinguish parameters from statistics and to relate how parameter estimation operates, Parameter estimation is used to estimate the population value /parameter0 through the use of confidence intervals, It is the process of using sample information to compute an interval that describes the range of a parameter such as the population mean /H0 or the population percentage /I0, It involves the use of three values' /&0 the sample statistic /such as the mean or the percentage01 /#0 the standard error of the statistic1 and /.0 the desired level of confidence /usually 9:6 or 9960, Parameter estimation serves the purpose of translating the sample statistic into a statement about the population)s true value, ., How does parameter estimation for a mean differ from that for a percentage? Review Buestion, Students will need to distinguish between the two, The maDor difference is in the computation of the standard error, @ith a mean1 the standard deviation is used as a measure of the variability1 while with a percentageA the variability is measured by the Buantity /pB0, +lso1 means are used for metric-scaled variables1 while percentages are used for categorical variables, 4, List the steps in statistical hypothesis testing List the steps in intuiti!e hypothesis testing How are they similar? How are they different? Review Buestion, This Buestion reBuires students to find and list the steps in each one1 and to identify where they are similar and where they differ, The two types of hypothesis tests are listed and contrasted following, +s can be seen1 the intuitive approach does not rely on a random sample1 nor is a sample statistic &;

Chapter &$' (enerali ing a Sample)s *indings to Its Population and Testing Hypotheses about Percents and Means

computed, The steps are very similar in order and nature1 but intuitive hypothesis testing ta8es place without formal concern for the representativeness of the evidence and without a statistical test, S(a(#+(#,a! H9 %(:"+#+ S(" + S(" 1< <egin with a statement about what you believe e2ists in the populationA that is1 the population mean or percentage, S(" =< "raw a random sample and determine the sample statistic, S(" >< Compare the statistic to the hypothesi ed parameter, S(" ?< "ecide whether the sample supports the original hypothesis, S(" 6< If the sample does not support the hypothesis1 revise the hypothesis to be consistent with the sample)s statistic, I)(0#(#3" H9 %(:"+#+ S(" + <elieve something,

*ind some evidence that about your belief, Compare the evidence to your belief, The evidence agrees or does not agree with your belief, *ind something that disagrees with your belief1 and now believe something different,

:, When a researcher"s sample e!idence disagrees with a manager"s hypothesis, who is right? Review Buestion, In order to answer this Buestion1 students must grasp the fact that the researcher uses random samples that are truthful /valid0 representations of the population under study, Sample information and what it infers about the hypothesis by application of proper hypothesi ing testing procedures is always more accurate than the hypothesis, This claim1 of course1 assumes that nonsampling errors are inconseBuential1 and a random /i,e,1 representative0 sample has been drawn, $, What does it mean when a researcher says that a hypothesis has been supported at the #$% confidence le!el? Review Buestion, Students must demonstrate a basic understanding of a sampling distribution, It means that the sample finding /statistic and variability0 is such that the statistic falls in the interval describing 9:6 of the sampling distribution, The sample and its statistic are but one of many1 many theoretical samples ma8ing up the sampling distribution that has the hypothesi ed population value as the center of the sampling distribution,

&9

Chapter &$' (enerali ing a Sample)s *indings to Its Population and Testing Hypotheses about Percents and Means

%, &istinguish a directional from a nondirectional hypothesis and pro!ide an example of each one Review Buestion, Students will need to show an understanding of these two types of hypothesis tests, + directional hypothesis is one that indicates the direction in which you believe the population parameter to fall, There are two things to 8eep in mind for directional hypothesis tests, *irst you must be concerned with the sign determined for the J value as well as its si e, @ith >greater than? hypotheses1 the sign must be positive1 while for >less than? hypotheses1 the sign must be negative1 when you subtract the hypothesi ed mean from the sample mean, Second1 although we are wor8ing with only one side of the bell-shaped distribution1 you need to adDust the critical value /refer to Table &$,:0, The directional hypothesis is supported at that level of confidence if the computed is larger than the critical cut point1 and1 of course1 its sign is consistent with the direction of the hypothesis, =therwise1 the directional hypothesis is not supported at your chosen level of confidence, /Students should illustrate with an e2ample,0 ;, Here are se!eral computation practice exercises to help you identify which formulas pertain and learn how to perform the necessary calculations 'n each case, perform the necessary calculations and write your answers in the column identified by a (uestion mark a &etermine confidence inter!als for each of the following) *ean of +$,, s d of -,, n of .,,, le!el of #$% / 0se mean e(uation
&:5 &,9$ x .5 #55 = &:5 4,# = &4:,; &:4,#

1ercent of 23%, n of -,,, le!el of ##% / 0se percentage formula

$% #,:; x = $% %,5 = $5,5 %4,5 /$%0/..0 .55

*ean of $ 4, s d of , $, n of .$,, le!el of ##% / 0se mean formula

:,4 #,:; x 5,: #:5

= :,4 ,5; = :,.# :,4;

1ercent of .$ 5%, n of $,,, le!el of ##% / 0se percentage formula

#:,; #,:; x = #:,; :,& = #5,% .5,9 / #:,#5 ;0/%4,#0 :55

Chapter &$' (enerali ing a Sample)s *indings to Its Population and Testing Hypotheses about Percents and Means

b 6est the hypothesis and interpret your findings Hypothesis) mean73 $, mean of 5 $, sd of + ., n of 23,, le!el of #$%

z=

;,: %,: &,# $%5

&,5 ,5: = #5

The hypothesis is not supported, Hypothesis) percent752%, p of #$%, n of +,,,,, le!el of ##%
z = 9: ;$ &555 9 = ,% = &#,;:

(9:)(:)

The hypothesis is not supported, Hypothesis) mean greater than +.$, mean of +-$, sd of +$, n of $,,, le!el of #$%
z= &.: &#: &: :55 &5 ,$% = &4,9 =

The hypothesis is supported, Hypothesis' percent less than ..61 p of .&1 n of &#51 level of 996
z= .& .. /.&0/$90 &#5

# 4,##& = ,4; =

Chapter &$' (enerali ing a Sample)s *indings to Its Population and Testing Hypotheses about Percents and Means

The hypothesis is not supported, 9, 6he manager of the aluminum recycling di!ision of 8n!ironmental 9er!ices wants a sur!ey which will tell him how many households in the city of 9eattle, Washington, will !oluntarily wash out, store, and then transport all of their aluminum cans to a central recycling center located in the downtown area and only open on 9unday mornings : random sur!ey of $,, households determines that .,% of households would do so and that each participating household expects to recycle about +,, cans monthly with a standard de!iation of -, cans What is the !alue of parameter estimation in this instance? +pplication Buestion, Parameter estimation will be useful in estimating the percent of households in the population who will ta8e part in the recycling program1 and it can be used to estimate the number of aluminum cans that each household will recycle monthly1 on the average,

p + #2 x s p px( n .,x5, $,,

p + #2 x

., + #2 x

., + #2 x - . ., 2 +- 3% / .2 -%

To estimate the percent of households1 apply the confidence interval formula for a percent, The 9:6 level of confidence is used following, To estimate the number of cans1 apply the confidence interval formula for a mean, Kote1 however1 that the sample si e is only &551 although only #56 of the :55 respondents indicated they would recycle and gave an indication of the number of cans per month, The 9:6 level of confidence is used below,

##

Chapter &$' (enerali ing a Sample)s *indings to Its Population and Testing Hypotheses about Percents and Means
x + #2 x s x +,, + #2 x -, +,,

+,, + #2 x +,, $ # #4 + / +,$ # cans

Combining the two estimates with the population of the city will yield an estimate of the total number of aluminum cans that would be recycled monthly, *or instance1 in a city of &5515551 the lower limit would be &551555 times &.,%6 times 94,& cans per month1 while the upper limit would be &551555 times #$,.6 times &5:,9 cans per month, &5, 't is reported in the newspaper that a sur!ey sponsored by ;orbes *agazine with ;ortune $,, company executi!es has found that 3$% belie!e that the 0nited 9tates trails <apan and =ermany in automobile engineering 6he article notes that executi!es were inter!iewed at a recent >ring the 0 9 >ack to ?ompetiti!eness symposium held on the campus of the 0ni!ersity of 9outhern ?alifornia Why would it be incorrect for the article to report confidence inter!als? +pplication Buestion, Students will need to identify the type of sample involved in the survey and determine if it embodies the assumptions of confidence intervals, This is a convenience sample1 and not a random probability sample, Confidence interval estimations assume random sampling,

#.

Chapter &$' (enerali ing a Sample)s *indings to Its Population and Testing Hypotheses about Percents and Means

&&, :lamo @ent/:/?ar executi!es belie!e that :lamo accounts for about $,% of all ?adilacs which are rented 6o test this belief a researcher randomly identifies ., maAor airports with on/site rental car lots Bbser!ers are sent to each location and instructed to record the number of rental company ?adillacs obser!ed in a four/hour period :bout $,, are obser!ed, and -,% are obser!ed being returned to :lamo @ent/:/?ar What are the implications of this finding for the :lamo executi!es" belief? +pplication Buestion, Students will need to perform and interpret a hypothesis test
z7 p / H sp p / H p( n -, / $, -,x3, $,, / ., .+,, $,, / ., 4.

7 / # 32

for a percentage, The e2ecutives have stated a hypothesis of pE:56, The sample information can be used to test the hypothesis as follows /using 9:6 level of confidence0' + computed of -9,%$ does not support the hypothesis,

#4

Chapter &$' (enerali ing a Sample)s *indings to Its Population and Testing Hypotheses about Percents and Means

CASE SOLUTIONS Ca+" 16<1 D%)( Y%0 J0+( Ha(" #( W:")@A -Pa'( I. Ca+" O8B",(#3" This is the first of a five part case with Marsha1 an + student1 and Losh1 a student-athlete who does not pay attention to the concepts involved with statistical analyses, Students may relate to these series of cases as they sometimes have proDect team members who are not diligent, In this case1 students must reali e that Losh has done descriptive statistics when he should have done inferential statistics, That is1 he does means and percents instead of confidence intervals, They should also reali e that Marsha can calculate these from the SPSS output, A)+&"'+ (% Ca+" 40"+(#%)+ + &r C"s re(uirement is for each team to present its statistical inference findings in class today What analysis or analyses should ha!e <osh done? *or the means1 Losh should have done =ne-Sample t-tests which provide the lower and upper bounds for 9:6 confidence intervals, *or the percents1 Losh should have calculated the confidence intervals using the percentage formula applied to the SPSS freBuencies tables, 't is possible to make the presentation on the !ariables in the output file &o what *arsha needs to do, now *or the percentages1 Marsha can calculate the 9:6 confidence intervals using the formula1
p z s p

Here are the results, ) U+" P"(+C P"(+C D P"(+ :%& %1(")A R",%mm")2"2 PPP (% a 1'#")2A R",a!! +""#)* a PPP )"&+ a "' a2 #) (:" a+( m%)(:A 44,46 ;#,&6 :.,&6 &$# &$# &$# S .,96 .,56 .,96 L%&"' U "' .$,%6 :#,&6 %$,#6 4:,46 ;;,56 $5,;6

*or the means1 Marsha should use the confidence interval formula for a mean,
x z s x

#:

Chapter &$' (enerali ing a Sample)s *indings to Its Population and Testing Hypotheses about Percents and Means

She can accomplish this by pasting Losh)s table into E2cel and using the formula to compute the lower and upper boundaries, T#m"+ 3#+#("2 PPP #) a+( 9"a' Am%0)( + ")( %) !a+( 3#+#( (% PPP H%& N0m8"' !#E"!9 (% %1 "(+ 809 a( %&)"2 PPP )"F( (#m" -1;G +,a!". &$# 5 :,. 4 &,: 5,&&; 6<1 6<6 &$# 5 &,$4 & 5,%% 5,5$& 1<6 1<I

K Mean Mode Std, "eviation Std, Error of Mean L%&"' 8%0)2 U "' 8%0)2 Ca+" 16<=

!alid Missing

&$# 5 4,4 4 4,9; 5,.9 ><6 6<=

&$# 5 G&;,#5 &: 5,;: 5,. H1G<61 H1I<G5

Auto Online S0'3"9 -Pa'( II.

Ca+" O8B",(#3" This case study will reBuire students to use SPSS with the :uto Bnline survey data set to compute confidence intervals and test hypotheses, A)+&"'+ (% Ca+" 40"+(#%)+ + 'n order to describe this population, estimate the population parameters for the following a How often they make purchases online The scale is &E >never? to :E >very often1? so it is an interval scale, The confidence interval for the mean should be determined using SPSS one-sample t test procedure, The output follows

#$

Chapter &$' (enerali ing a Sample)s *indings to Its Population and Testing Hypotheses about Percents and Means
One-Sample Statistics " How often do you ma7e pur+hases throu)h the 0nternet! 1400 #ean 2.(2 $td. %e&iation 1.304 $td. 'rror #ean .035

One-Sample Test 1est 2alue 3 0 95. /onfiden+e 0nter&al of the %ifferen+e ,ower -pper 2.75 2.(9

t How often do you ma7e pur+hases throu)h the 0nternet! (0.91(

df 1399

$i). (2*tailed .000

#ean %ifferen+e 2.(2

The output reveals the mean to be #,;#1 and the 9:6 confidence interval is #,%: to #,;9, b Dumber of !isits they made to :uto Bnline The number of visits is in the form of a ratio scale1 so the one-sample1 t test is used to determine the 9:6 confidence intervals, Here is the resulting SPSS output,
One-Sample Statistics " 86out how many times 6efore you 6ou)ht your automo6ile did you &isit the 8uto 9nline we6 site! 1400 #ean 6.61 $td. %e&iation 3.171 $td. 'rror #ean .0(5

One-Sample Test 1est 2alue 3 0 95. /onfiden+e 0nter&al of the %ifferen+e ,ower 6.45 -pper 6.7(

t 86out how many times 6efore you 6ou)ht your automo6ile did you &isit the 8uto 9nline we6 site! 7(.032

df 1399

$i). (2*tailed .000

#ean %ifferen+e 6.61

There is an average of $,$& times1 and the 9:6 confidence interval is $,4: to $,%; times, #%

Chapter &$' (enerali ing a Sample)s *indings to Its Population and Testing Hypotheses about Percents and Means

6he percentage who actually bought their !ehicle from :uto Bnline SPSS does not have a capability of computing a confidence interval for a percentage, The solution is to have SPSS determine the sample percentage1 and then to apply the percentage confidence interval eBuation to calculate the 9:6 confidence interval,
Did you buy your new vehicle on the ;re<uen+y 2(7 1113 1400 =er+ent 20.5 79.5 100.0 uto Online web site? /umulati&e =er+ent 20.5 100.0

2alid

:es "o 1otal

2alid =er+ent 20.5 79.5 100.0

+ total of #5,:6 purchased their auto from :uto Bnline, Here is the calculation of the confidence interval,
p &,9$ s p

p &,9$
#5,: &,9$

p ( n

#5,: %9,: &455 #5,: &,9$ &,5%9 #5,: #,& &;,46 ##,$6

6he percentage of those who felt it was a better experience than buying at a traditional dealership This is also a percentage parameter estimation that reBuires SPSS *reBuencies output to determine the mean and then an application of the percentage confidence interval formula, Kote that the sample si e is #;%1 because the population relevant for those who felt it was a better e2perience includes only those who bought from :uto Bnline,
If yes, was it a better experience than buying at a traditional dealership visit? ;re<uen+y 272 15 2(7 1113 1400 =er+ent 19.4 1.1 20.5 79.5 100.0 2alid =er+ent 94.( 5.2 100.0 /umulati&e =er+ent 94.( 100.0

2alid

#issin) 1otal

:es "o 1otal $ystem

#;

Chapter &$' (enerali ing a Sample)s *indings to Its Population and Testing Hypotheses about Percents and Means

p &,9$ s p

p &,9$
94,: &,9$

p ( n

94,: :,: #;% 94,: &,9$ &,.: 94,: #,$ 9&,96 9%,&6

How do people feel about the :uto Bnline web site E(uestion 2 on the (uestionnaireF? There are si2 3i8ert-scale statements in Buestion $, (iven that the scale is interval1 one-sample t tests should be used to determine the 9:6 confidence intervals,

One-Sample Statistics " 0 found the we6 site was &ery helpful in my pur+hase. 0 had a positi&e e5perien+e usin) the we6 site. 0 would use this we6 site only for resear+h. 1he we6 site influen+ed me to 6uy my &ehi+le 0 would feel se+ure to 6uy from this we6 site. %id you 6uy your new &ehi+le on the 8uto 9nline we6 site! 1400 #ean 3.4( $td. %e&iation 1.097 $td. 'rror #ean .029

1400 1400 1400 1400 1400

3.27 2.14 3.99 4.36 1.(0

1.025 1.217 .657 .716 .404

.027 .033 .01( .019 .011

#9

Chapter &$' (enerali ing a Sample)s *indings to Its Population and Testing Hypotheses about Percents and Means
One-Sample Test 1est 2alue 3 0 95. /onfiden+e 0nter&al of the %ifferen+e ,ower 3.43 -pper 3.54

t 0 found the we6 site was &ery helpful in my pur+hase. 0 had a positi&e e5perien+e usin) the we6 site. 0 would use this we6 site only for resear+h. 1he we6 site influen+ed me to 6uy my &ehi+le 0 would feel se+ure to 6uy from this we6 site. %id you 6uy your new &ehi+le on the 8uto 9nline we6 site! 11(.793

df 1399

$i). (2*tailed .000

#ean %ifferen+e 3.4(

119.467 65.(1( 226.797 227.676 166.30(

1399 1399 1399 1399 1399

.000 .000 .000 .000 .000

3.27 2.14 3.99 4.36 1.(0

3.22 2.0( 3.95 4.32 1.77

3.33 2.20 4.02 4.39 1.(2

#, +uto =nline principals have the following beliefs, Test these hypotheses, a 1eople will strongly agree to all eight statements concerning use of the 'nternet and purchase E(uestion - on the (uestionnaireF This belief translates into hypotheses tests that the population mean for each statement in Buestion . will be ., The SPSS one-sample t test procedure should be used with the >Test !alue? set to ., The output follows,

.5

Chapter &$' (enerali ing a Sample)s *indings to Its Population and Testing Hypotheses about Percents and Means
One-Sample Statistics " 1400 1400 1400 1400 #ean 2.(3 3.11 2.(2 2.(2 $td. %e&iation 1.263 1.265 1.302 1.265 $td. 'rror #ean .034 .034 .035 .034

0 li7e usin) the 0nternet. 0 use the 0nternet to resear+h pur+hases 0 ma7e. 0 thin7 pur+hasin) items from the 0nternet is safe. 1he 0nternet is a )ood tool to use when resear+hin) an automo6ile pur+hase. 1he 0nternet should not 6e used to pur+hase &ehi+les. 9nline dealerships are >ust another way of )ettin) you into the traditional dealership. 0 li7e the pro+ess of 6uyin) a new &ehi+le. 0 don?t li7e to hassle with +ar salesmen.

1400

3.10

1.3(7

.037

1400

2.12

1.012

.027

1400 1400

1.(3 3.40

1.17( 1.620

.031 .043

.&

Chapter &$' (enerali ing a Sample)s *indings to Its Population and Testing Hypotheses about Percents and Means
One-Sample Test 1est 2alue 3 3 95. /onfiden+e 0nter&al of the %ifferen+e ,ower -pper *.24 *.11 .04 *.25 *.25 .17 *.12 *.12

0 li7e usin) the 0nternet. 0 use the 0nternet to resear+h pur+hases 0 ma7e. 0 thin7 pur+hasin) items from the 0nternet is safe. 1he 0nternet is a )ood tool to use when resear+hin) an automo6ile pur+hase. 1he 0nternet should not 6e used to pur+hase &ehi+les. 9nline dealerships are >ust another way of )ettin) you into the traditional dealership. 0 li7e the pro+ess of 6uyin) a new &ehi+le. 0 don?t li7e to hassle with +ar salesmen.

t *5.1(4 3.170 *5.295 *5.474

df 1399 1399 1399 1399

$i). (2*tailed .000 .002 .000 .000

#ean %ifferen+e *.17 .11 *.1( *.19

2.(13

1399

.005

.10

.03

.1(

*32.442

1399

.000

*.((

*.93

*.(2

*37.262 9.303

1399 1399

.000 .000

*1.17 .40

*1.24 .32

*1.11 .49

The Sig /#-tailed0 column reveals that all eight statements have significance levels of less than ,5&, In other words1 there is no support /at the 9:6 level of confidence01 that the average for any statement is ., b 1rior to buying a !ehicle, people will !isit the :uto Bnline web site approximately fi!e times The hypothesis is that the number of visits to the :uto Bnline web site is eBual to :1 and the SPSS one-sample t test procedure can test this hypothesis if the Test !alue is set to :, Here is the output,
One-Sample Statistics " 86out how many times 6efore you 6ou)ht your automo6ile did you &isit the 8uto 9nline we6 site! 1400 #ean 6.61 $td. %e&iation 3.171 $td. 'rror #ean .0(5

.#

Chapter &$' (enerali ing a Sample)s *indings to Its Population and Testing Hypotheses about Percents and Means
One-Sample Test 1est 2alue 3 5 95. /onfiden+e 0nter&al of the %ifferen+e ,ower 1.45 -pper 1.7(

t 86out how many times 6efore you 6ou)ht your automo6ile did you &isit the 8uto 9nline we6 site! 19.032

df 1399

$i). (2*tailed .000

#ean %ifferen+e 1.61

The Significance level is ,5551 meaning that there is no support for the hypothesis, The true population mean is $,$& /with confidence intervals0, c <ust about e!eryone will say that buying a !ehicle online is a great deal better than buying it at a traditional dealership The scale is &E >a great deal better1? and 4 E >Dust a bit better,? This is an interval scale1 so the one-sample t test for a mean can be used with the Test !alue set to &,
One-Sample Statistics " 0f yes@ indi+ate how mu+h 6etter. 272 #ean 1.97 $td. %e&iation 1.007 $td. 'rror #ean .061

One-Sample Test 1est 2alue 3 1 95. /onfiden+e 0nter&al of the %ifferen+e ,ower -pper .(5 1.09

t 0f yes@ indi+ate how mu+h 6etter. 15.(39

df 271

$i). (2*tailed .000

#ean %ifferen+e .97

The significance level of ,555 indicates no support for the hypothesis, The e2perience of buying a vehicle online is not >a great deal better? than buying at a traditional auto dealership, d 6hose who buy their !ehicles from :uto Bnline will be adults in their mid/thirties Kote that only :uto Bnline buyers are mentioned in the claim, It is necessary to select only these respondents and to perform a one-sample t test using a Test !alue of .:,

..

Chapter &$' (enerali ing a Sample)s *indings to Its Population and Testing Hypotheses about Percents and Means
One-Sample Statistics " 4hat is your a)e! 2(7 #ean 36.2( $td. %e&iation (.631 $td. 'rror #ean .509

One-Sample Test 1est 2alue 3 35 95. /onfiden+e 0nter&al of the %ifferen+e ,ower -pper .2( 2.2(

4hat is your a)e!

t 2.510

df 2(6

$i). (2*tailed .013

#ean %ifferen+e 1.2(

The hypothesis of .: is not supported as the significance level is ,555, However1 the mean is actually .$,#;1 so buyers actually are in their mid-thirties, e, 6hose who buy from +uto =nline will pay an a!erage of G-,$,, below the sticker price, whereas those who buy elsewhere will pay only an a!erage of G.,,,, less than the !ehicle sticker price It is necessary to compute a difference value with the SPSS Compute function /"iffEstic8er-actual0 that e2presses the difference between the stic8er price and that actual price paid for the automobile, *or the first value of G.1:551 only :uto Bnline buyers are involved in analysis1 so you must use data-select cases for didbuyE&, Then run the one-sample t test routine setting G.1:55 as the test variable, Here is the output,
One-Sample Statistics " %0;; 2(7 #ean 3491.2(92 $td. %e&iation 572.46927 $td. 'rror #ean 33.79179

One-Sample Test 1est 2alue 3 3500 95. /onfiden+e 0nter&al of the %ifferen+e ,ower -pper *75.2230 57.(014

%0;;

t *.25(

df 2(6

$i). (2*tailed .797

#ean %ifferen+e *(.710(

.4

Chapter &$' (enerali ing a Sample)s *indings to Its Population and Testing Hypotheses about Percents and Means

The mean is found to be G.149& /rounded01 and the significance level is ,%9%, So there is no difference between the computed average and the hypothesi ed average1 and the hypothesis is supported, *or the other group1 select the data set to be only the respondents who did not use :uto Bnline1 and run the test using G#1555 at the test value, The output follows,
One-Sample Statistics " 1113 #ean 2011.6(01 $td. %e&iation 54(.74625 $td. 'rror #ean 16.44(41

%0;;

One-Sample Test 1est 2alue 3 2000 95. /onfiden+e 0nter&al of the %ifferen+e ,ower -pper *20.5933 43.9536

t %0;; .710

df 1112

$i). (2*tailed .47(

#ean %ifferen+e 11.6(01

The difference is found to be G#5&& on the average1 and the significance level is , 4%;, So1 at the ,5: or 9:6 level of confidence1 the hypothesis is supported, It is apparent from this analysis1 that :uto Bnline users pay a good deal less than the stic8er price than do nonusers /G.:55 versus G#5550 for their vehicles, Ca+" 16<> T:" H%88#(+ C:%#," R"+(a0'a)( S0'3"9 I)1"'")(#a! A)a!9+#+ Ca+" O8B",(#3" This case study will reBuire students to use SPSS with the Hobbit)s Choice integrated case dataset to compute confidence intervals and test hypotheses, A)+&"'+ (% Ca+" 40"+(#%)+ + What are the population estimates for each of the following? *or a1 b1 and c1 one must use SPSS to determine the percentage and then calculate the confidence interval for the percentage using the formula provided in the te2tboo8, @ith d and e1 the variables are ratio1 so a one-sample t test should be used with the Test !alue set to 5, *or the age1 one must calculate the age by subtracting the year born from present year /e,g,1 ageE#55$-yrborn0,

.:

Chapter &$' (enerali ing a Sample)s *indings to Its Population and Testing Hypotheses about Percents and Means

1reference for easy listening radio programming There were .;: respondents /&: do not listen to the radio01 so the calculation of the confidence interval is as follows,
#5,. &,9$ #5,. x%9,; .;:

#5,. &,9$ x 4,#5 #5,. &,9$ x #,5: #5,. 4,5 &$,.6 #4,.6

Hiewing of +, p m local news on 6H There were .:$ respondents to the news show viewing Buestion /44 do not watch the news01 so the calculation of the confidence interval is as follows,
:4,: &,9$ :4,: x 4:,: .:$

:4,: &,9$ x $,9% :4,: &,9$ x #,$ :4,: :,& 49,46 :9,$6

9ubscribe to ?ity *agazine +ll 455 respondents are included in this confidence interval calculation,
4:,. &,9$ 4:,. x:4,% 455

4:,. &,9$ x $,# 4:,. &,9$ x #,: 4:,. 4,9 45,46 :5,#6

.$

Chapter &$' (enerali ing a Sample)s *indings to Its Population and Testing Hypotheses about Percents and Means

:!erage age of heads of households

One-Sample Statistics " a)e 400 #ean 4(.5375 $td. %e&iation 9.51577 $td. 'rror #ean .47579

One-Sample Test 1est 2alue 3 0 95. /onfiden+e 0nter&al of the %ifferen+e ,ower -pper 47.6021 49.4729

a)e

t 102.015

df 399

$i). (2*tailed .000

#ean %ifferen+e 4(.53750

:!erage price paid for an e!ening meal entrIe

One-Sample Statistics " 4hat would you e5pe+t an a&era)e e&enin) meal entree item alone to 6e pri+ed! 340 #ean $1(.(353 $td. %e&iation $9.(27(4 $td. 'rror #ean $.53299

One-Sample Test 1est 2alue 3 0 95. /onfiden+e 0nter&al of the %ifferen+e ,ower -pper $17.7(69 $19.((37

t 4hat would you e5pe+t an a&era)e e&enin) meal entree item alone to 6e pri+ed! 35.339

df 339

$i). (2*tailed .000

#ean %ifferen+e $1(.(353

>ecause <eff &ean"s restaurant will be upscale, it will appeal to high income consumers <eff hopes that at least .$% of the households ha!e an income le!el of G+,,,,,, or higher 6est this hypothesis The hypothesis can be tested by determining the 9:6 confidence interval for the percentage of the population that has an income of G&551555 or more,

.%

Chapter &$' (enerali ing a Sample)s *indings to Its Population and Testing Hypotheses about Percents and Means
!hich of the following categories best describes your before tax household income? ;re<uen+y 26 34 (2 133 16 43 66 400 =er+ent 6.5 (.5 20.5 33.3 4.0 10.( 16.5 100.0 2alid =er+ent 6.5 (.5 20.5 33.3 4.0 10.( 16.5 100.0 /umulati&e =er+ent 6.5 15.0 35.5 6(.( 72.( (3.5 100.0

2alid

A$15@000 $15@000 to $24@999 $25@000 to $49@999 $50@000 to $74@999 $75@000 to $99@999 $100@000 to $149@999 $150@000B 1otal

This table indicates that a total of #%,.6 /&5,;6 plus &$,:60 of the respondents reported an income of G&551555 or more, The confidence interval calculation is as follows,
#%,. &,9$ #%,. x %#,% 455

#%,. &,9$ x 4,9$ #%,. &,9$ x #,# #%,. 4,. #.6 .&,$6

The confidence level includes #:61 so the hypothesis is supported, If the confidence interval did not include #:6 but was higher than #:61 the hypothesis would have strong support as Leff hopes that >at least #:6? have high income, With respect to those who are !ery likely to patronize the Hobbit"s ?hoice @estaurant, <eff belie!es that they will either !ery strongly or somewhat prefer each of the following) EaF waitstaff with tuxedos, EbF unusual desserts, EcF large !ariety of entrees, EdF unusual entrees, EeF elegant dIcor, and EfF Aazz combo music &oes the sur!ey support or refute <eff"s hypotheses? 'nterpret your findings This analysis first reBuires that only respondents who are >very li8ely? to patroni e the Hobbit)s Choice Restaurant be selected from the larger sample, >!ery strongly? translates to a >:? on the 3i8ert scale1 so the first set of tests should be performed with a one-sample t test using a Test !alue of :,

.;

Chapter &$' (enerali ing a Sample)s *indings to Its Population and Testing Hypotheses about Percents and Means
One-Sample Statistics " =refer ;ormal 4aitstaff 4earin) 1u5edos =refer -nusual %esserts =refer ,ar)e 2ariety of 'ntrees =refer -nusual 'ntrees =refer 'le)ant %e+or =refer CaDD /om6o 72 72 72 72 72 72 #ean 4.6( 4.54 4.51 4.5( 4.50 2.60 $td. %e&iation .470 .502 .503 .496 .504 .944 $td. 'rror #ean .055 .059 .059 .059 .059 .111

One-Sample Test 1est 2alue 3 5 95. /onfiden+e 0nter&al of the %ifferen+e ,ower -pper *.43 *.5( *.60 *.53 *.62 *2.62 *.21 *.34 *.37 *.30 *.3( *2.1(

t =refer ;ormal 4aitstaff 4earin) 1u5edos =refer -nusual %esserts =refer ,ar)e 2ariety of 'ntrees =refer -nusual 'ntrees =refer 'le)ant %e+or =refer CaDD /om6o *5.773 *7.751 *(.195 *7.121 *(.426 *21.5(9

df 71 71 71 71 71 71

$i). (2*tailed .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000

#ean %ifferen+e *.32 *.46 *.49 *.42 *.50 *2.40

There is no support for any of Leff)s >very strongly? prefers hypotheses, 3et)s try the >strongly? ones /Test !alueE40,
One-Sample Statistics " =refer ;ormal 4aitstaff 4earin) 1u5edos =refer -nusual %esserts =refer ,ar)e 2ariety of 'ntrees =refer -nusual 'ntrees =refer 'le)ant %e+or =refer CaDD /om6o 72 72 72 72 72 72 #ean 4.6( 4.54 4.51 4.5( 4.50 2.60 $td. %e&iation .470 .502 .503 .496 .504 .944 $td. 'rror #ean .055 .059 .059 .059 .059 .111

.9

Chapter &$' (enerali ing a Sample)s *indings to Its Population and Testing Hypotheses about Percents and Means
One-Sample Test 1est 2alue 3 4 95. /onfiden+e 0nter&al of the %ifferen+e ,ower .57 .42 .40 .47 .3( *1.62 -pper .79 .66 .63 .70 .62 *1.1(

t =refer ;ormal 4aitstaff 4earin) 1u5edos =refer -nusual %esserts =refer ,ar)e 2ariety of 'ntrees =refer -nusual 'ntrees =refer 'le)ant %e+or =refer CaDD /om6o 12.299 9.160 (.664 9.970 (.426 *12.604

df 71 71 71 71 71 71

$i). (2*tailed .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000

#ean %ifferen+e .6( .54 .51 .5( .50 *1.40

Students may erroneously conclude that there is no supportA however1 this is true only for the Da combo feature, +ll other means are greater than 4 and less than :, That is1 they are between >very strongly? and >strongly? prefer, *ollowing are the 9:6 confidence intervals for the means to illustrate this finding,
One-Sample Test 1est 2alue 3 0 95. /onfiden+e 0nter&al of the %ifferen+e ,ower -pper 4.57 4.42 4.40 4.47 4.3( 2.3( 4.79 4.66 4.63 4.70 4.62 2.(2

t =refer ;ormal 4aitstaff 4earin) 1u5edos =refer -nusual %esserts =refer ,ar)e 2ariety of 'ntrees =refer -nusual 'ntrees =refer 'le)ant %e+or =refer CaDD /om6o (4.5(6 76.(05 76.099 7(.335 75.(35 23.337

df 71 71 71 71 71 71

$i). (2*tailed .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000

#ean %ifferen+e 4.6( 4.54 4.51 4.5( 4.50 2.60

45