=
c
c
o s
g
s
r
o
(3)
From expression (4) we also obtain an inverse relationship between the growth
rate and the saving rate:
0
) (
*
2
<
=
c
c
o
o
s
g
s
g
o
(4)
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Expressions (3) and (4) show that higher savings propensities implies both
lower growth rates and smaller profitability. These two results show that being the
economy at its production possibility frontier there is a trade-off between wages and
profits.
2.2. Second Generation: the Neo-Kaleckian Model [Dutt (1984) and Rowthorn
(1982)]
Now the capacity utilization is an endogenous variable that can be different from
the full capacity utilization. This gives rise to the main difference in relation to the first
generation model: the variable that measures the capacity utilization enters the equation
of growth rate of investment meaning that the higher the capacity utilization the higher
the growth rate of investment [Steindl (1952)] according to the expression below:
u u g u r g g
o o I
| ot | o + + = + + = (5)
Where measures the sensibility of the growth rate of investment to the capacity
utilization and captures the accelerator effect: high utilization induces firms to expand
capacity more rapidly in order to keep up with anticipated demand. The growth rate of
savings is also given by the Cambrige Equation where workers do not save.
sr g
S
= (6)
By equalizing (6) to (7) we conclude after some algebraic manipulation that the
rate of capacity utilization is given by:
| o t
=
) (
*
s
g
u
o
(7)
By replacing expression (7) into relation u r t = we conclude that the profit rate
is given by:
| o t
t
=
) (
*
s
g
r
o
(8)
and the balanced growth rate is given by:
| o t
t
=
) (
*
s
g s
g
o
(9)
Taking the derivative of expression (8) in relation to we conclude that:
| |
0
) (
*
2
<
=
c
c
| o t
|
t
s
g r
o
(10)
This result shows that a redistribution of income towards wages may result in a higher
rate of capacity utilization as shown by Blecker (1989) and became known in the
literature as the stagnationist view
2.3. Third Generation: Bhaduri and Marglin (1990)
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The investment function now consists of an autonomous part, and reacts
positively to profits and capacity utilization, being the profit share used as a measure of
profitability
u g g
o I
| ot + + = (11)
According to Bhaduri and Marglin (1990, p. 380) the influence of existing
capacity on investment cannot be captured satisfactorily by simply introducing a term
for capacity utilization. The investment function should also consider profit share and
capacity utilization as independent and separate variables in the lines suggested by
expression (11). The growth rate of savings is given by the Cambridge Equation.
Following the same procedure of the previous subsections, it is possible then to
establish the rate of capacity utilization, the profit rate and the growth rate of the
economy as follows:
| t
ot
+
=
s
g
u
o
* (12)
| t
ot t
+
=
s
g
r
o
) (
* (13)
| t
ot t
+
=
s
g s
g
o
) (
* (14)
The main difference in the results of the Bhaduri-Marglin (1990) and the neo-
Kaleckian approach of the previous subsection is that now the derivative of the profit
rate in relation to the profit share may be positive or negative as follows by the
differentiation of expression (12) in relation to .
0
* *
> <
=
c
c
or
s
u r
| t
| ot
t
(15)
An increase in the profit share will decrease capacity utilization but its effects on
the growth rate of capital stock is ambiguous. There may be a positive capacity effect
and a negative profit share effect on investment. Thus two regimes are possible
depending on the relative magnitudes of capacity utilization and profit share effects in
the investment function. If the profit effect is stronger than the capacity effect growth is
profit led. Otherwise we have a wage led regime.
3. A Multi-Sector Version of the Post-Keynesian Model of Economic Growth
The Pasinettis model of structural change and economic dynamics is carried
out, not in terms of input-output relations, as has become usual in multi-sector models,
but rather in terms of vertically integrated sectors. This device is used to focus on final
commodities rather than on industries. In this case, it is possible to associate each
commodity to its final inputs - a flow of working services and a stock of capital goods -
thus eliminating all intermediate inputs. From this point of view, such framework may
be adopted to approach the Post-Keynesian growth model although the latter does not
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consider the distinction of capital and consumption goods: only one commodity is
produced. Hence the starting point of the present analysis is to consider that the Post-
Keynesian structure is a vertically integrated model in which this device was used to its
limit. It is possible to state that the Post-Keynesian growth model is vertically integrated
because it has the same characteristics of what Sraffa (1960, appendix A) has called
sub-systems, i.e, it is self-reproducible, it uses no intermediate goods to produce only
one kind of commodity. Therefore, it represents an economy in which sectors are
vertically integrated
3
.
In order to consider a multi-sectoral version of the Post-Keynesian growth model
let us consider that X
i
denotes the domestic physical quantity produced of consumption
good i and X
n
represents the quantity of labour in all internal production activities; per
capita demand of consumption goods is represented by a set of consumption
coefficients:
in
a . The former refers to domestic and the latter to foreign demand. In the
same vein,
n k
i
a
,
stand for the investment coefficients of capital goods k
i
. The production
coefficients of consumption and capital goods are respectively
ni
a and
i
nk
a . The family
sector is denoted by n. The physical system may be written as follows:
0
0
0
1
1
1
1
,
=
=
=
=
=
n
i
ki nki
n
i
i ni n
n n ki ki
n in i
X a X a X
X a X
X a X
(16)
A sufficient condition to ensure non-trivial solutions
4
of the system for physical
quantities is:
1
,
1
1
= +
=
nki n ki
n
i
ni in
a a a a (17)
This is also a condition for full employment of the labour force. The solution of
the system for physical quantities may be expressed as:
=
=
n n ki ki
n in i
X a X
X a X
,
(18)
Considering that p
i
is the price of commodity i (i = 1,2,...,n-1), and w is the wage
rate (uniform), the monetary system may be written as:
3
Araujo and Teixeira (2002) has adopted this idea to show that the Feldmans bi-sectoral model of
economic growth may also be considered a vertically integrated model in each this technique was adopted
to produce a two-sector model.
In fact the concept of vertical integration has been widely used in
macroeconomics. As pointed out by Lavoie (1995), the concept of vertical integration, although
extensively but implicitly used in macroeconomic analysis, has always been difficult to seize intuitively.
4
As pointed out by Pasinetti (1981, p. 33), fulfilment of (1) is a sufficient condition for the system for
physical quantities to have non-trivial solutions. However, non-fulfilment does not imply any meaningful
solution. The particular form of the coefficient matrix (all its entries are zeros, except those in the last
row, those in the last column, and along with the main diagonal) means that the solution of the system can
be derived directly, without substitution, from the first 2n1 equations. Therefore, relative quantities are
determined independently of condition (2).
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= +
=
=
=
0 ) (
0
0
,
1
1
ki n ki i in
n
i
i ki in
nki ki
ki i ni i
p a p a r p a w
w a p
p r w a p
(19)
The set of solution for prices may be expressed as:
=
+ =
w a p
w a r a p
nki ki
nki i ni i
) (
(20)
In general, if the rates of profit, r
i
(i=1,...,n-1), are positive and the capital intensity is
different from one production process to another, relative prices of consumption goods will
depend both on labour inputs and on the rate of profit. In this case a pure labour theory of value
is no longer valid since the price of commodity i depends not only on quantities of direct and
indirect labour but also on the rate of profit. In order to develop a theory in terms of pure labour,
Ricardo (1817) and Marx (1887) assumed a uniform organic composition of capital in a static
framework. In order to avoid this simplification let us assume, as Pasinetti (1981) did,
that the price of consumption goods are given by a mark-up rule according to:
w a p
ni i i
) 1 ( t + = (21)
A possible departing point to establish a bridge between the two approaches is to
check the validity of relationship u r t = in a sectoral environment. Note from the first
expression of system (19) that:
i k i i ni i i
K p r wX a p X
i
= (22)
Where the right hand side is nothing but the profit, that is
i k i
K p r
i
= [ . Then we above
expression may be rewritten as:
w X a p X
i ni i i i
= [ (23)
By replacing the mark-up expression in to the expression above we obtain:
i ni i ni ni i i ni i i i
wX a w a w a X w a p X t t = + = = [ ] ) 1 [( ) ( (24)
The profit share in sector i ,
i
t , is given by:
i
i
i ni i
i ni i
i i
i
i
wX a
wX a
X p t
t
t
t
t
+
=
+
=
[
=
1 ) 1 (
(25)
Besides rPK = [ which implies, by using (25) and (24) that:
i i
i ni i
i ni i
i i
i ni i
i i
i
i
u
K wa
X wa
K p
X wa
K p
r t
t
t t
=
+
= =
[
=
) 1 (
(26)
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Assuming that
i
i
i
K
X
u = the relationship u r t = remains valid for a multi-
sectoral economy but now it has to take into account that
i
t is the sectoral profit share
and
i
u is the sectoral rate of capacity utilization. The following table sums up the
results obtained for a multi-sector economy:
Kaldor-Robinson Neo-Kaleckian Bhaduri-Marglin
Sectoral Growth
rate of investment
i i
i
o
i
I
r g g o + =
i i i i
i
o
i
I
u r g g | o + + =
i i i i
i
o
i
I
u g g | t o + + =
Sectoral Growth
rate of savings
i i
i
S
r s g =
i i
i
S
r s g =
i i
i
S
r s g =
Rate of capacity
utilization
u
i
* = 1
i i i i
i
o
i
s
g
u
| o t
=
) (
*
i i i
i i
i
o
i
s
g
u
| t
t o
+
=
*
Profit Rate
i i
i
o
i
s
g
r
o
=
*
i i i i
i
o i
i
s
g
r
| o t
t
=
) (
*
i i i
i i
i
o i
i
s
g
r
| t
t o t
+
=
) (
*
Growth rate
i i
i
o i
i
s
g s
g
o
=
*
i i i i
i
o i i
i
s
g s
g
| o t
t
=
) (
*
i i i
i i
i
o i i
i
s
g s
g
| t
t o t
+
=
) (
*
The Pasinettian approach provides us with the concept of natural rate of profit,
that is a rate of profit that must be adopted in order to endow each sector with the capital
goods required to allow each sector to at least fulfil the demand requirements of that
sector. This rate is given by:
i i
n r u + =
*
(27)
Where n is the growth rate of population and
i
u is the growth rate of demand. As pointed
out by Araujo and Teixeira (2003) the proportionality between the rate of profit to the
sectoral rate of growth emerges as a natural requirement to endow the economic system
with the necessary productive capacity to fulfil the expansion of demand. Therefore, a
growing economy does imply a natural rate of profit
5
, which is given by the following
expression (see Pasinetti, 1981, p. 131)
Now we can compare the Pasinettian solution with the solutions of the previous
generations of approaches already presented in the previous section. It is important to bear in
mind that the Pasinettian model has a strong normative taste, that is, it shows the requirements
for an economic system to be in equilibrium but it does not say that this equilibrium will
prevail. Note that the equilibrium in each sector requires that u
i
= 1. Besides the capital
accumulation condition requires that:
5
The concept of natural rate of profit, introduced by Adam Smith, was reinterpreted by Pasinetti (1981,
1988). Whereas Adam Smith (1776) argues that due to the competition amongst capitalists the
ordinary rate of profit is in the long run uniform across sectors, Pasinetti (1981, p. 130) postulates that
there are as many natural rates of profit as there are rates of expansion of demand (and production) of the
various consumption goods.
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ni i nk
a n a
i
) ( u + = (28)
Now it is possible to determine the savings rates that ensure that the capital
accumulation condition is satisfied. In each of this models this is given by:
Kaldor-Robinson Neo-Kaleckian Bhaduri-Marglin
Saving rates
i
i
i
o
i
n
g
s o
u
+
+
=
i
i
i
o
i
i
i
n
g
s o
u t
|
+
+
+ =
i
i i
i
o
i
i
i
n
g
s
u
t o
t
|
+
+
+ =
Note that the saving rate in the Kaldor-Robinson model has to given by:
i
i
i
o
i
n
g
s o
u
+
+
= (29)
This is a requirement since the model assumes full employment and full capacity
utilization. Hence in order to keep the system in its equilibrium position it is necessary
that the saving rate practiced by capitalists must necessarily be the one given by
expression (29). In the Neo-Kaleckian and the Bhaduri-Marglin version the savings
rates given in the table above are just a normative criterion since these models do not
require full equilibrium.
4. Concluding Remarks
The key distinction between the orthodox view and the Post-Keynesian growth
models is the importance given on the supply and demand determination of economic
growth. While the later focuses on demand the former stresses the supply side as
determinant of the process of economic growth. But what is known as the Post-
Keynesian growth model in fact is subject to the same criticism as the Neo-classical
model since these models are aggregated in one sector. In the present paper we have
built a disaggregated version of the Post-Keynesian growth model by considering it as a
particular case of the Pasinettis model of structural change and economic growth. This
is a step further in order to build an unified Post-Keynesian theory of economic growth.
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De 11 a 13 de agosto de 2010