Politics Disadvantage - Samford 2013

Politics DA/Answers SUDI 2013
Politics DA/Answers
Politics DA/Answers 1 1NC Shell 4
Immigration Reform Shell 5

1NC Shell #2 7
Immigration Reform Shell 2.0 8

Uniqueness Extensions 12
UQ: Immigration Reform Will Pass Now 13 UQ: Obama has capital now 37 UQ: Obama Pushing Immigration Reform Now 39 UQ: Top of the Docket 42 UQ: Obama working with Congress Now 44 UQ: AT: Obama Supports His Own Bill 45 UQ: AT: Leak of White House Bill Undermines Passage 46 UQ: AT: Obama Will Do Immigration Reform By Executive Order 48 UQ: AT: Obama Will Push for Piecemeal Bill 49 UQ: AT: Citizenship Blocks Passage 50 UQ: AT: Gay Rights Undermines Passage 52 UQ: AT: Border Security Conditions 53 UQ: House Will Pass Immigration Reform 54 UQ: AT: Thumpers 55 UQ: AT: Obama Will Delegate-Wont Lead on Immigration Reform 56 UQ: AT: Gun Control Thumper 57 UQ: AT: Hagel Thumper 63 UQ: AT: Nominations Thumper 65 UQ: AT: NLRB Thumper 66 UQ: AT: General Thumpers 68 UQ: AT: Not Serious-Obama is Tricking Republicans 69 UQ: AT: Vote a Long Way Off 70 UQ: AT: Uniqueness Overwhelms Link 72 UQ: AT: Wont use PC on immigration 76 UQ: AT: High-Skilled Inevitable/Piecemeal 77 1
Politics DA/Answers SUDI 2013 UQ: AT: Obama is bluffing/not serious about IR 79 UQ: AT: Second Term Presidents Cant Get Anything Done 80 UQ: Obama has capital now 81
Links 83
Links: Cuba Embargo 84 Links: Mexico 88 Links: Venezuela 90 Focus Links 91

Internal Links 93
Internal Links: Political Capital 94 Internal Links: Now Key Time 102 Internal Links: Republicans Key 104
Impacts: Nukes/Econ/Heg 105
Impacts: Cyber-Defenses Key to Solve Cyber-Terror 106 Heinbockel 00 106 Impacts: Nuclear War 108 Impacts: Cyber-Attacks Increasing Now 110 Impacts: Economy 111 Impacts: Hegemony 120
Impacts: LA Relations 122
Latin American Relations Module 123 Latin America RelationsImpact Overview 124 Latin America Internals: Immigration Reform Key to US-Latin American Relations 125 Latin American Relations: ATRelations Resilient 127 Latin American RelationsNow Key Time 129 Latin American Relations: US Actions Key 130 Latin American Relations: Even Watered Down Reform Solves 131 LA Relations (cont.) 132 Latin American RelationsAlternative Energy Impacts 133 Latin America RelationsBiofuels Impacts 134 Latin American Relations: Democracy Impact Extensions 135 Latin America RelationsNuclear Power Impacts 136 Latin American Relations: Oil Dependence Scenario 137 Latin American RelationsOil Prices Impact 138 2
Politics DA/Answers SUDI 2013 Latin American Relations: Poverty Impacts 139 Latin American Relations: Soft Power Impacts 141 Latin America Relations: Solar-Wind Impacts 142 Latin American Relations: Warming Impact Scenario 143
AT: Theory 145
AT: Non-Intrinsic: Pass the Plan and Do your scenario 146 AT: Say No 148 AT: Plan is Bottom of the Docket 149
AFF Immigration Reform 2ac Front-Line 150
1ar Wont Pass 153 1ar: Obama Has No Political Capital 157 1ar: Winners Win 158
Immigration Reform AFF Answers 160 AFF Answers: LA Relations 169 AFF Answers: Focus Link 171
1NC Shell
Immigration Reform Shell

A. Uniqueness: Immigration reform will pass now. Bay City News, 6/22/2013 (Pelosi Optimistic on Immigration Reform Bill, Accessed
June 22, 2013 from http://www.nbcbayarea.com/news/local/Pelosi-Optimistic-onImmigration-Reform-Bill-212608761.html)
Democratic Leader Nancy Pelosi said in San Francisco she was optimistic that Congress could soon pass a comprehensive immigration reform bill. Speaking after a roundtable discussion with labor, faith and immigration
advocacy groups in San Francisco today, Pelosi said the legislation was a statement of national values, including respect for the dignity of the individual. "These people who come here with their hopes, dreams and aspirations to make a better life for their families, they make America more American," Pelosi said. "We are, by and large, a nation of immigrants," Pelosi added. Those meeting with Pelosi Friday included advocates who told tales of families separated by deportation and individuals who lost jobs due to checks on their immigration status. Putri Siti, who spoke for Asian Students Promoting Immigration Rights Through Education, said she came to the United States from Indonesia with her family when she was 11. Her family learned that their petition to change their immigration status was denied when she was in her first year of college, but was able to successfully fight to stop their deportation through a public campaign. "Not everyone is so lucky," Siti said, calling for a "clear and direct path to citizenship." We have enough families being hurt, being torn apart, because of this broken immigration system." Pelosi acknowledged she was not entirely happy with every aspect of current proposals, including limits on family reunification and a deal with Republicans announced Thursday that would require an increase in border security. But she
took a pragmatic tone, saying they were probably necessary tradeoffs. "I'm not madly in love with any of these bills but we have to make some progress," she said.
B. ROLLING BACK SANCTIONS ON CUBA WOULD BE POLITICALLY CONTROVERSIAL. Stephanie Hanson, (staff writer) Jan. 31, 2013. Retrieved May 29, 2013 from
http://www.cfr.org/cuba/us-cuba-relations/p11113
Many recent policy reports have recommended that the United States take some unilateral steps to roll back sanctions on Cuba. The removal of sanctions, however, would be just one step in the process of normalizing relations. Such a process is sure to be controversial , as indicated by the heated congressional debate spurred in March 2009 by attempts to ease travel and trade restrictions in a large appropriations bill. "Whatever we call it--normalization, dtente, rapproachement--it is clear that the policy process risks falling victim to the politics of the issue," says Sweig.
C. OBAMAS POLITICAL POWER WITH CONGRESS IS KEY TO IMMIGRATION REFORM. Amie Parnes, (staff writer) May 12, 2013. Retrieved May 29, 2013 from
http://thehill.com/homenews/administration/299129-white-house-strategy-forimmigration-win-comes-with-some-risks
The White House plans to use an inside-outside game to pressure Congress as it seeks a political victory for President Obama on immigration reform. The inside game includes meetings with key stakeholder groups, such as one this week with Asian American and Pacific Islander leaders. In recent days, the meetings have gained steam with Obama holding at least one meeting per week, according to White House guidance of the president's schedule. It also includes Obamas second-term charm offensive with members of Congress, in which Obama, who needs an immigration win to help solidify his second term legacy, has used dinner dates and golf outings to engage with his political opponents. We want to make sure we dont lose any Democrats and work with Republicans to move this forward, one senior administration official said.
D. IMMIGRATION REFORM KEY TO BOLSTERING CYBER-SECURITY DEFENSES: Thomas McLarty, 7/8/2009 (Council on Foreign Relations), July 8, 2009. Retrieved
May 29, 2013 from http://www.cfr.org/immigration/us-immigration-policy-report-cfrsponsored-independent-task-force/p19759
We have seen, when
you look at the table of the top 20 firms that are H1-B visa requestors, at least 15 of those are IT firms. And as we're seeing across industry, much of the hardware and software that's used in this country is not only manufactured now overseas, but it's developed overseas by scientists and engineers who were educated here in the United States. We're seeing a lot more activity around cyber-security, certainly noteworthy
attacks here very recently. It's becoming an increasingly dominant set of requirements across not only to the Department of Defense, but the Department of Homeland Security and the critical infrastructure that's held in private hands. Was
there any discussion or any interest from DOD or DHS as you undertook this review on the security things about what can be done to try to generate a more effective group of IT experts here in the United States, many of which are
coming to the U.S. institutions, academic institutions from overseas and often returning back? This potentially puts us at a competitive disadvantage going forward. MCLARTY: Yes. And I think your question largely is the answer as well. I mean, clearly we have less talented students here studying -- or put another way, more talented students studying in other countries that are gifted, talented, really have a tremendous ability to develop these kind of technology and scientific advances, we're going to be put at an increasingly disadvantage. Where if they come here -- and I billfold or purse as they graduate -- then,
kind of like Dr. Land's approach of the green card being handed to them or carefully put in their obviously, that's going to strengthen, I think, our system, our security
needs. But again, I think, Frank, you raised a very good point in terms of the security measures that are needed in this interim, if you want to
call it that, as we hopefully get some reform here in this area. Yes, we were mindful of that. Ted, you might want to be a little more specific in that regard. But I think you make the basic point of the need. I mean, you're right; about the 15 out of the top 20 and what's being developed overseas. That underscores the need to get go back to their countries, at least they have a link here.
the best and brightest here and to keep them here -- or, if they
E. CYBER-ATTACKS RISK A NUCLEAR CONFLICT. Sean Lawson (PhD, expert in information-age warfare) May 13, 2009. Retrieved May
29, 2013 from www.seanlawson.net/?p=477
The reason, in part, is that the
U.S. defense community has increasingly come to see cyberspace as a domain of warfare equivalent to air, land, sea, and space. The definition of cyberspace as its own domain of warfare helps in its own
right to blur the online/offline, physical-space/cyberspace boundary. But thinking logically about the potential consequences of this framing leads to some disconcerting conclusions. If
cyberspace is a domain of warfare, then it becomes possible to define cyber attacks (whatever those may be said to entail) as acts of war. But what happens if the U.S. is attacked in any of the other domains? It retaliates. But it usually does not respond only within the domain in which it was attacked. Rather,
responses are typically cross-domain responsesi.e. a massive bombing on U.S. soil or vital U.S. interests abroad (e.g. think 9/11 or Pearl Harbor) might lead to air strikes against the attacker. Even more likely given a U.S. military way of warfare that emphasizes multidimensional, joint operations is a massive conventional (i.e. non-nuclear) response against the attacker in all domains (air, land, sea, space), simultaneously. The possibility of kinetic action in response to cyber attack, or as part of offensive U.S. cyber operations, is part of th e current (2006) National Military Strategy for Cyberspace Operations [5]: Of
course, the possibility that a cyber attack on the U.S. could lead to a U.S. nuclear reply constitutes possibly the ultimate in cross-domain response. And while this may seem far fetched, it has not been ruled out by U.S. defense policy makers and is, in fact, implied in current U.S. defense policy documents. From the National Military Strategy of the United States (2004): The
term WMD/E relates to a broad range of adversary capabilities that pose potentially devastating impacts. WMD/E includes chemical, biological, radiological, nuclear, and enhanced high explosive weapons as well as other, more asymmetrical weapons. They may rely more on disruptive impact than destructive kinetic effects. For example, cyber attacks on US commercial information systems or attacks against transportation networks may have a greater economic or psychological effect than a relatively small release of a lethal agent. [6] The authors of a 2009 National Academies of Science report on cyberwarfare respond to this by saying, Coupled with the declaratory policy on nucle ar weapons described earlier, this statement implies that the United States will regard certain kinds of cyberattacks against the United States as being in the same category as nuclear, biological, and chemical weapons, and thus that a nuclear response to certain kinds of cyberattacks (namely, cyberattacks with devastating impacts) may be possible. It also sets a relevant scalea cyberattack that has an impact larger than that associated with a relatively small release of a lethal agent is regarded with the same or greater seriousness. [7]
1NC Shell #2
Immigration Reform Shell 2.0

A. Immigration reform will passsupport in both houses of Congress Will Allen (Staff writer) June 21, 2013. Retrieved June 24, 2013 from
http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/351667/flake-we-will-have-sufficient-votes-passamended-immigration-reform-will-allen Senator Jeff Flake (R., Ariz.) appeared on The OReilly Factor to support the so-called Corker amendment, which will add stronger border-security measures to the immigration-reform bill currently before the Senate. Flake stated that the amendment, anticipated this weekend, includes doubling the border patrol, also 700 miles of new fencing; the Border Patrol actually will be so thick . . . there will be a border agent every thousand feet. Asked whether the additional security provisions will win over fellow Republicans who oppose the bill, Flake predicted that the
amendment would bring anywhere between 8 and 13 or 14 new members along . . . I think well be close [to 70 votes] with this amendment. He added, We will have sufficient votes, I think, with this stronger border surge, if you will, to pass the bill. The senator expects the House of Representatives to pass only the border-security part of the Senate proposal: They will be unlikely to pass a big bill, but theyll probably pass a border-security bill. Flake also expects that the Senate will vote on the full legislation by the end of next week, and that a final version will reach President Obamas desk by September.
B. ROLLING BACK SANCTIONS ON CUBA WOULD BE POLITICALLY CONTROVERSIAL. Stephanie Hanson, (staff writer) Jan. 31, 2013. Retrieved May 29, 2013 from
http://www.cfr.org/cuba/us-cuba-relations/p11113
Many recent policy reports have recommended that the United States take some unilateral steps to roll back sanctions on Cuba. The removal of sanctions, however, would be just one step in the process of normalizing relations. Such a process is sure to be controversial , as indicated by the heated congressional debate spurred in March 2009 by attempts to ease travel and trade restrictions in a large appropriations bill. "Whatever we call it--normalization, dtente, rapproachement--it is clear that the policy process risks falling victim to the politics of the issue," says Sweig.
C. Obama needs political capital to finish the immigration deal Hindustan Times June 11, 2013. Retrieved June 25, 2013 from
http://www.hindustantimes.com/world-news/Americas/Obama-back-in-fray-on-immigrationreform/Article1-1074774.aspx
US President Barack Obama made an outspoken pitch for a Senate bill on comprehensive immigration reform on Tuesday, branding those opposed to it insincere about fixing a badly broken system. Obama has gently pushed the bill from behind the scenes for months, fearing his open support would swell the ranks of conservatives who see the bill as offering amnesty to illegal immigrants and who are determined to kill it. But as the legislation faced a crucial test vote in the Senate, Obama waded into the fray, leveraging the political capital on the issue he won during last year's election campaign, particularly among Hispanic voters. "This week, the Senate will consider a common-sense, bipartisan bill that is the best chance we've had in years to fix our broken immigration system," Obama said at an event at the White House. The president
also sought to disarm conservative Republicans -- even some who support immigration reform -- who argue that the bill should not be passed without tough new border security measures. "I know there's a lot of talk right now about border security so let me repeat: today illegal crossings are near their lowest level in decades. "If passed, the Senate bill, as currently written and as hitting the floor, would put in place the toughest border enforcement plan that America has ever seen. So nobody's taking border enforcement lightly." Obama also took direct aim at the motives of lawmakers who are opposed to the bill, which was drawn up in the Senate by a bipartisan group of lawmakers known as the "Gang

of Eight." "There's no reason Congress can't get this done by the end of the summer," Obama said, but cast doubt on the motives of those wanting to block the bill. "If you're not serious about it, if you think that a broken system is the best America can do, then I guess it makes sense to try to block it," he said. "But if you're actually serious and sincere about fixing a broken system, this is the vehicle to do it, and now is the time to get it done. "There is no good reason to play procedural games or engage in obstruction just to block the best chance we've had in years to address this problem in a way that's fair to middle-class families, to business owners, to legal immigrants." The bill, which would give around 12 million illegal immigrants an eventual path to citizenship, will need 60 votes to pass the 100-seat Senate, and then face an uncertain fate in the Republican-controlled House of Representatives. Since their defeat in the 2012 presidential elections, some Republicans have shifted position and now support reform in the hope of winning over Hispanic voters, whose clout is expected to grow in future elections.
D. IMMIGRATION REFORM KEY TO BOLSTERING CYBER-SECURITY DEFENSES: Thomas McLarty, 7/8/2009 (Council on Foreign Relations), July 8, 2009. Retrieved
May 29, 2013 from http://www.cfr.org/immigration/us-immigration-policy-report-cfrsponsored-independent-task-force/p19759
We have seen, when
you look at the table of the top 20 firms that are H1-B visa requestors, at least 15 of those are IT firms. And as we're seeing across industry, much of the hardware and software that's used in this country is not only manufactured now overseas, but it's developed overseas by scientists and engineers who were educated here in the United States. We're seeing a lot more activity around cyber-security, certainly noteworthy
attacks here very recently. It's becoming an increasingly dominant set of requirements across not only to the Department of Defense, but the Department of Homeland Security and the critical infrastructure that's held in private hands. Was
there any discussion or any interest from DOD or DHS as you undertook this review on the security things about what can be done to try to generate a more effective group of IT experts here in the United States, many of which are
coming to the U.S. institutions, academic institutions from overseas and often returning back? This potentially puts us at a competitive disadvantage going forward. MCLARTY: Yes. And I think your question largely is the answer as well. I mean, clearly we have less talented students here studying -- or put another way, more talented students studying in other countries that are gifted, talented, really have a tremendous ability to develop these kind of technology and scientific advances, we're going to be put at an increasingly disadvantage. Where if they come here -- and I billfold or purse as they graduate -- then,
kind of like Dr. Land's approach of the green card being handed to them or carefully put in their obviously, that's going to strengthen, I think, our system, our security
needs. But again, I think, Frank, you raised a very good point in terms of the security measures that are needed in this interim, if you want to
call it that, as we hopefully get some reform here in this area. Yes, we were mindful of that. Ted, you might want to be a little more specific in that regard. But I think you make the basic point of the need. I mean, you're right; about the 15 out of the top 20 and what's being developed overseas. That underscores the need to get go back to their countries, at least they have a link here.
the best and brightest here and to keep them here -- or, if they
E. A cyber-attack on the US guarantees nuclear war

Richard Clarke and Steven Andreasen June 14, 2013. Cyberwars threat does not justify a new policy of nuclear deterrence Retrieved June 25, 2013 from http://articles.washingtonpost.com/2013-06-14/opinions/39977598_1_nuclear-weapons-cyberattack-cyberattacks
President Obama is expected to unveil a new nuclear policy initiative this week in Berlin. Whether he can make good on his first-term commitments to end outdated Cold War nuclear policies may depend on a firm presidential directive to the Pentagon rejecting any new missions for nuclear weapons in particular, their use in response to cyberattacks. The
Pentagons Defense Science Board concluded this year that China and Russia could develop capabilities to launch an existential cyber attack against the United States that is, an attack causing sufficient damage that our government would lose control of the country. While the manifestation of a nuclear and cyber attack are very different, the board concluded, in the end, the existential impact to the United States is the same. Because it will be impossible to fully defend our systems against existential cyberthreats, the board argued, the United States must be prepared to threaten the use of nuclear weapons to deter cyberattacks. In other words: Ill see your cyberwar and raise you a nuclear response. Some would argue that Obama made clear in his
2010 Nuclear Posture Reviewthat the United States has adopted the objective of making deterrence of nuclear attacks the sole purpose of our nuclear weapons. Well, the
board effectively reviewed the fine print and concluded that the Nuclear Posture Review was essentially silent on the relationship between U.S. nuclear weapons and cyberthreats, so connecting the two is not precluded in the stated policy. As the board noted, cyberattacks
can occur very quickly and without warning, requiring rapid decision-making by those responsible for protecting our country. Integrating the nuclear threat into the equation means making clear to any potential adversary that the
United States is prepared to use

nuclear weapons very early in response to a major cyberattack and is maintaining nuclear forces on prompt launch status to do so. Russia and China would certainly take note and presumably follow suit. Moreover, if the
United States, Russia and China adopted policies threatening an early nuclear response to cyber-attacks, more countries would surely take the same approach. Its hard to see how this cyber-nuclear action-reaction dynamic would improve U.S. or global security. Its more likely to lead to a new focus by Pentagon planners on generating an expanding list of cyber-related targets and the operational deployment of nuclear forces to strike those targets in minutes.
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Uniqueness Extensions
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UQ: Immigration Reform Will Pass Now

Immigration reform will pass Annie Rose-Stresser (Staff writer) June 24 2013. Retrieved June 25, 2013 from
http://thinkprogress.org/immigration/2013/06/24/2205851/corker-hoeven-passes/?mobile=nc On Monday night, the Senate moved forward a key provision predicted to make or break its ability to pass comprehensive immigration reform. The amendment, offered by Sens. Bob Corker (RTN) and John Hoeven (R-ND) and known as the border surge amendment, would add 20,000 border patrol agents, require the completion of 700 miles of fencing, and add 18 unmanned surveillance aircraft along the southern border. It escaped a filibuster by a vote of 67 to 27, with several Republicans joining the Democratic majority. At a price tag of $30 billion to fund the agents alone, critics have said the amendment amounts to unnecessary spending particularly given the fact that illegal immigration is at net zero, and the border is more secure than Republicans mandated it be in a 2007 reform effort. Still, the amendment enjoys broad support from progressives because it preserves one of the key aspects of the reform effort: a pathway to citizenship. Shortly before the vote on Monday, the Congressional Budget Office released updated statistics on the bill given the adoption of the Corker-Hoeven amendment. It found that the amendment would reduce the net flow of unauthorized residents to the United States relative to the underlying bill. It also found that it would reduce the deficit slightly less than the underlying bill, given the spending required to implement the new border measures, in the first decade. The vote on Monday night was for cloture the ability to end debate on the amendment
and move forward to voting for it. The Senate will now proceed to debate and then vote on the amendment itself. It is expected to pass.
Immigration reform will pass nowObama support is key. Jake Sherman (staff writer) May 15, 2013. Retrieved May 29, 2013 from
http://www.politico.com/story/2013/05/obama-agenda-scandals-91451.html?hp=l1
I think the conditions are ripe for the [immigration] bill to make it through. The presidents been very helpful. Hes been there when weve asked him to be, hes laid low when we ask him, and Ive got no complaints about the president and I think he can be very helpful getting it over the finish line, said Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), one of Obamas
chief Benghazi critics.
Immigration reform legislation will pass in the present system. Julianna Goldman (staff writer) May 23, 2013. Retrieved May 29, 2013 from
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-05-24/obama-bully-pulpit-bullied-with-congress-probesobscuring-agenda.html The immigration bills about the only thing thats going to get done, said Jim Manley, a former aide to Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, a Nevada Democrat. On May 16, the Republicanleaning Heritage Action for America sent a letter to House Speaker John Boehner and Majority Leader Eric Cantor urging them to keep the focus on the administrations actions on Benghazi and the IRS, saying they underscore the need for smaller government.
Immigration reform will pass now. NPR, May 14, 2013. Retrieved May 29, 2013 from
http://www.npr.org/blogs/itsallpolitics/2013/05/14/183912123/controversies-risk-starvingobamas-agenda-of-air 13
Politics DA/Answers SUDI 2013 Nope, weve got to do our job, said Sen. Dick Durbin (D-Ill.). We know the president supports us and wants to see immigration reform and we have a lot of work to do on Capitol Hill before it reaches the presidents level of decision. On immigration, Sen. John McCain (RAriz.) said he is not concerned at all. Not in the slightest. Its too big, too important an issue and people are separating it, McCain said. Theyre moving forward with the markup. Theyll
have it finished and theyll plan on bringing it to the floor.
Scandals will not affect the ability to pass immigration reform. Jim Malone, (staff writer) May 16, 2013. Retrieved May 29, 2013 from
http://www.voanews.com/content/controversies-threaten-to-derail-obama-agenda/1662489.html The scandals are a distraction for the president, said Fortier, but not necessarily crippling. The
agenda that he has now is one that has to get the agreement of both parties, and I think the scandal might be somewhat broadly hurtful to him but is not going to damage him if both parties see some value in working together on some of these issues, he said. Fortier adds that one of those issues that still may draw bipartisan support is immigration reform.
Current scandals wont hurt Obamas ability to pass immigration reform. Jordan Fabian, (staff writer) May 17, 2013. Retrieved May 29, 2013 from
http://abcnews.go.com/ABC_Univision/Politics/immigration-reform-survive-president-obamasscandals/story?id=19203730
The trio of scandals facing President Obama have many in Washington asking whether this marks the beginning of the end for his legislative agenda. An issue such as tax reform might be impeded considering that the Internal Revenue Service is at the center of one of the scandals. But an initiative that could emerge unscathed, or even strengthened, is immigration reform. Before the scandals, immigration appeared to be the item on Obama's second-term agenda that seemed likeliest to pass through Congress. Deep fault lines have developed between both parties on issues like gun control, the deficit, and debt reduction. But on immigration, there is strong political incentive for GOP leaders in Washington to join in the effort to pass a bill. And the scandals haven't changed that.
Despite scandals, immigration reform is chugging ahead. Jordan Fabian, (staff writer) May 17, 2013. Retrieved May 29, 2013 from
http://abcnews.go.com/ABC_Univision/Politics/immigration-reform-survive-president-obamasscandals/story?id=19203730
Although it's only been a few days since the scandals have overtaken the political atmosphere in Washington, developments on immigration have quietly chugged along. A bipartisan group in the House announced Thursday evening they have reached a deal in principle on a comprehensive bill
after four years of on-again, off-again talks. And in just three markup sessions, the Senate Judiciary Committee has considered 82 of the 300 amendments offered by its members, over a quarter of the total. Supporters and opponents of the bill believe that the immigration reform
effort can make it through the scandal-obsessed environment in Washington.
Enough general agreement exists to pass immigration reform now. Lynn Sweet, (staff writer) May 27, 2013. Retrieved May 29, 2013 from
http://www.suntimes.com/news/sweet/20378242-452/lynn-sweet-immigration-reform-dealcould-pass-by-august-nancy-pelosi-says.html 14
Politics DA/Answers SUDI 2013 WASHINGTON House Democratic Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.), who hits Chicago this week along with President Barack Obama for fund-raising events to benefit Illinois House Democrats, told me Monday that there is enough general agreement on bipartisan immigration
reform for a measure to pass and she laid out an aggressive timetable, saying a bill could be sent to Obama to sign by August.
The House and Senate can reconcile the immigration bill. Lynn Sweet, (staff writer) May 27, 2013. Retrieved May 29, 2013 from
http://www.suntimes.com/news/sweet/20378242-452/lynn-sweet-immigration-reform-dealcould-pass-by-august-nancy-pelosi-says.html
As for immigration, Pelosi is optimistic that obstacles that may loom large now can be bridged after the House and Senate pass their own bills and the two chambers come together to reconcile the different versions.
Immigration reform is Obamas best hope for a major second term accomplishment. Russell Berman, (staff writer) May 5, 2013. Retrieved May 29, 2013 from
http://thehill.com/homenews/senate/297703-immigration-reform-hits-crucial-stage-in-senateFor President Obama, immigration reform remains his best hope for a major legislative achievement in his second term. He has watched the Senate block his push for new gun
restrictions, and his meetings with Senate Republicans on the budget have yet to yield a significant breakthrough.
Immigration reform will pass in 2013. Russell Berman, (staff writer) May 5, 2013. Retrieved May 29, 2013 from
http://thehill.com/homenews/senate/297703-immigration-reform-hits-crucial-stage-in-senateDuring a speech in Mexico City on Friday, Obama said he was absolutely convinced
immigration reform could get done in 2013.
There is optimism that immigration reform will pass this year. Michael O'Brien, (staff writer) May 2, 2013. Retrieved May 29, 2013 from
http://firstread.nbcnews.com/_news/2013/05/02/18023911-obama-warns-congress-not-to-delayon-immigration-reform?lite
The president, following a meeting with Mexican President Enrique Pea Nieto, said that he remained optimistic that Congress could produce a comprehensive immigration reform law this year an issue of particular importance to millions of Mexicans and Mexican-Americans
residing in the United States.
Immigration reform can become a reality this year. Jake Miller (staff writer) May 4, 2013. Retrieved May 29, 2013 from
http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-250_162-57582886/obama-no-reason-immigration-reform-cantpass/ "In recent weeks, we've seen a common-sense immigration reform bill introduced in the Senate," the president said, referring to a bipartisan reform package devised by a "gang of eight" 15
Politics DA/Answers SUDI 2013 senators. That bill, Mr. Obama said, contains "common-sense steps that a majority of Americans support. So there's no reason that immigration reform can't become a reality this year."
Immigration Reform will pass now---Republican support UPI June 23, 2013. United Press International retrieved 6/24/13 from
http://www.istockanalyst.com/business/news/6472661/graham-says-senate-will-passimmigration-reform WASHINGTON, June 23 (UPI) -- The U.S. Senate will likely pass the immigration reform bill by a comfortable margin this week, a Republican senator said Sunday. Sen. Lindsay Graham, R-S.C., said on "Fox News Sunday" there were nearly 70 of the 100 votes in the Senate committed to passing the legislation, which faces stiff opposition from his party in the House of Representatives. "I've been dealing with it since 2005 and 2006, and this is a great solution for our economy and our national security," said Graham. "I'm very proud of this bill." Graham said the balancing act between border security and doing something about the army of immigrants who have settled in the country illegally was addressed in the measure as well as possible. He said whatever imperfections there might be, they were a better alternative than allowing the issue to fester. Sen. Mike Lee, R-Utah, said he and other critics of the bill did not believe it put border security and the so-called pathway to citizenship on equal footing. "It's not tough on those who broke the law and it's not fair to those patiently who've been patiently waiting in line to come to this country legally," he said. Lee also predicted the bill would not prevent a new surge of illegal immigration; however Graham said the measure would head off such an influx.
Immigration reform will passsupport in both houses of Congress Will Allen (Staff writer) June 21, 2013. Retrieved June 24, 2013 from
http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/351667/flake-we-will-have-sufficient-votes-passamended-immigration-reform-will-allen Senator Jeff Flake (R., Ariz.) appeared on The OReilly Factor to support the so-called Corker amendment, which will add stronger border-security measures to the immigration-reform bill currently before the Senate. Flake stated that the amendment, anticipated this weekend, includes doubling the border patrol, also 700 miles of new fencing; the Border Patrol actually will be so thick . . . there will be a border agent every thousand feet. Asked whether the additional security provisions will win over fellow Republicans who oppose the bill, Flake predicted that the
amendment would bring anywhere between 8 and 13 or 14 new members along . . . I think well be close [to 70 votes] with this amendment. He added, We will have sufficient votes, I think, with this stronger border surge, if you will, to pass the bill. The senator expects the House of Representatives to pass only the border-security part of the Senate proposal: They will be unlikely to pass a big bill, but theyll probably pass a border-security bill. Flake also expects that the Senate will vote on the full legislation by the end of next week, and that a final version will reach President Obamas desk by September.
Immigration reform will pass now Tim Cohen (staff writer) June 26, 2013. From CNN, retrieved June 27, 2013 from
http://www.cnn.com/2013/06/26/politics/senate-immigration/index.html
Washington (CNN) -- A
compromise amendment intended to ease congressional passage of sweeping immigration legislation easily won Senate approval Wednesday. The 69-29 vote set up a procedural motion
immediately afterward to limit debate on the roughly 1,200-page bill, which would provide an eventual path to citizenship for millions of immigrants living illegally in the country. While some further amendments still could be considered, the
measure appeared headed to a final Senate vote by the end of the week after the procedural motion passed in a 67-31 vote.
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Backers of the bill want the Democratic-led Senate to pass it with a solid majority to demonstrate growing bipartisan momentum as the measure heads to the GOP-controlled House of Representatives. McCain: Immigration bill is strong The compromise amendment by Republicans John Hoeven of North Dakota and
Bob Corker of Tennessee would increase border security, a demand by conservative opponents of the immigration bill. Justices could put an end to hard choice for gay couples "I hope our colleagues in the House of Representatives will follow the Senate's lead, and work to pass bipartisan reform that both Democrats and Republicans can support," Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nevada, said before Wednesday's votes. Conservative GOP Sen. Chuck Grassley of Iowa, an
opponent of the Senate bill, conceded its likely to pass and called on House Republicans to make things right. "I expect the House of Representatives to fix this miserable failure," Grassley said. Republican leaders say the House will consider the issue in several smaller proposals instead of
a comprehensive single measure, a process that would allow more debate and votes on specific provisions. Earlier Wednesday, House Speaker John Boehner reiterated to GOP members that he opposes having the House take up any Senate immigration legislation, according to Rep. John Fleming. Fleming, a Louisiana Republican, said Boehner told the weekly policy meeting that the House would work on its own immigration bills. If enacted, the bill would create a path to citizenship for roughly 11 million undocumented immigrants while enhancing security along the border with Mexico. Among other things, the compromise border security amendment would add 20,000 border agents, complete 700 miles of fence along the boundary with Mexico, and deploy $3.2 billion in technology upgrades similar to equipment used by U.S. forces in Iraq and Afghanistan. Opinion: Protect rights of immigrant whistle-blowers The proposal also includes stronger worker eligibility verification standards and border entry-exit controls. Most undocumented immigrants would be eligible for permanent residency only after those five conditions have been met and verified by the Department of Homeland Security. Hoeven and Corker introduced the compromise amendment last week, saying it incorporated proposals from other senators to try to fix a broken immigration system. Grassley and other opponents argued the legislation amounts to an amnesty for immigrants who broke the law by living illegally in America. They argued the promises of increased border security before giving undocumented immigrants permanent residency would end up proving empty. "It does nothing to change the legalization-first philosophy and does little more than offer false promises that the American people can no longer tolerate," Grassley said. If eventually passed into law and signed by President Barack Obama, the bill would be the first major immigration reform since 1986, during the second Reagan administration. Grassley conceded he voted for the 1986 measure, which also called for increased border security, and called his support then a mistake he regrets. Farm bill failure portends problems for immigration in the House The 2013 version was drafted by a Senate "Gang of Eight" composed of four Democrats and four Republicans motivated by political and policy needs. Both parties concede the nation's immigration system is broken, and some Republicans believe that GOP refusal to work with Democrats on the matter would mean a repeat of the 2012 presidential election in which Obama won a strong majority of the Hispanic vote. However, other Republicans fear that providing a path to legal status for millions of undocumented immigrants would bolster support for Democrats from the new voters. Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, the most prominent Republican in the "Gang of Eight," told CNN's Dana Bash last week that he understands "why conservatives are upset." "They've seen all these promises in the past that haven't been delivered," Rubio said. But the status quo on immigration "is hurting America," he added. "And if nothing passes, then this disaster that we have now, that's what's going to stay in place."
Immigration reform will pass nowmultiple reasons: Sarlin, 3/4/2013 (Benjy, Washington Correspondent and editing the publication's DC
blog, 5 Reasons Immigration Reform Might Actually Pass http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2013/03/5-reasons-immigration-reform-looks-likeit-might-actually-pass.php sjg) But most importantly, the months since the election have seen a number of unexpected developments that indicate a bill may have more momentum than its backers initially hoped. Everything comes with the caveat that its still early and theres plenty that could go wrong in the months before a final draft of legislation, let alone a final vote. But the points in its favor are piling up too fast to ignore. Here are five reasons that the prospects for immigration reform are looking a lot better than they were even a few weeks ago: The House Is Actually Passing Stuff It used to be assumed that Republican leaders would not schedule a vote on any bill that didnt have the support of its own caucus, a group not exactly known for its warm relationship with undocumented immigrants. Barely two months into 2013, that assumption is already kaput. Since the election, Speaker John Boehner (R-OH) has passed a tax deal, Sandy relief, and this week the Violence Against Women Act, all with large chunks of his own party voting nay. In doing so, hes established a new de facto rule: when bills become a political albatross around the national GOP, hell pass them any way he can. No issue falls under that category more than immigration reform,
which Boehner, Majority Leader Eric Cantor (R-VA), and Budget Committee Chairman Paul Ryan (R-WI), among other Republican leaders, have all expressed strong interest in passing in some form and soon. Should House conservatives stall reform while the Senate passes a bill with a strong bipartisan vote, there will be enormous pressure on Boehner to follow the route he took on the Violence Against Women Act and bring it to the floor. Boehner is ruling the House in a way we didnt think was possible just three months ago, Angela Kelley, vice president for immigration policy and advocacy at the liberal Center for American Progress, told TPM. Its a good precedent.
Politicians Are Fighting Away From The Ledge Republicans raised hell after a draft of the White Houses own immigration bill leaked last month. And no one was madder than Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL), who called it a half baked bill that was dead on arrival in the House. Bad news for immigration reform, right? Well, heres the funny part. Rubios own Senate plan isnt all that different in concept than the White Houses. And the source of the fiercest attacks on reform in general is border security, an area
that Obamas leaked plan would bolster. too. In fact, Sens. John McCain (R-AZ) and Lindsey Graham (R-SC) not exactly Obamas best friends lately emerged from a White House meeting singing the presidents praises on exactly that issue. Few pro-reform activists seem to think that the Senate plans biggest difference with Obamas bill, a trigger that woud only let un documented immigrants apply for a green card and subsequently citizenship after border security measures took effect, is enough to threaten a bill. Instead, the argle-bargle over the White House draft had more to do with the politics of passing a bill, where its important for cons ervatives like Rubio to keep their distance from Obama, than any actual policy differences. Which brings us to the next green shoot for reform.
Immigration Opponents Are Keeping Quiet So that thing
Rubio is doing, where he rips the White Houses immigration plan then tells conservatives they should stick it to Obama by passing his own (mostly similar) version? It might actually be working. Rubios been making the rounds with the same radio hosts, TV commentators, and columnists who helped kill immigration reform in 2007, using his popularity with the tea party right to make the case that his bipartisan Senate plan is neither amnesty nor a sop to Democrats. At the very least, hes gotten a pretty respectful welcome, even from hosts like Rush Limbaugh wh o are still overtly anti-reform. And in some cases, hes gotten something approaching begrudging support. Meanwhile, Fox News is largely getting on the immigration reform train, with Rupert Murdoch, Sean Hannity, and Bill OReilly all saying nice things about legalizing undocumented immigrants. And so far there isnt anyone close to the
17
Politics DA/Answers SUDI 2013 The screamers and haters are not dominating the debate they way they did last time, Frank Sharry, executive director of the pro-reform Americas Voice Education Fund, told TPM. Rubio has had a lot to do with that: hes engaged the conservative press in a thoughtful way and its been beneficial. Labor And Business Arent Killing Each Other
equivalent of Lou Dobbs during the last immigration debate, a widely watched commentator who makes killing a bill their raison detre. Farm, hotel, and meatpacking companies are looking to immigration reform to give them a legal route to hire cheap foreign labor, something that reformers say needs to happen in order to prevent another buildup of undocumented
Senators working on a bill have bitter memories of watching their 2007 reform efforts go down in flames as labor groups opposed its guest worker program and business groups complained that it didnt go far enough. This time theyve asked the two sides to negotiate their own solution as a possible model, which is no easy task. So far, however, theyve actually made some progress: last month the AFL-CIO and Chamber of
immigrants. But unions are worried that theyll end up using a guest worker program to undercut American workers with easily exploited scabs.
Commerce put out a statement of principles indicating a possible compromise built around a temporary visa for workers and an independent federal agency to track labor shortages so workers can tell whether industrys claims of labor
Theres A Path To A Path To Citizenship Along with the guest worker fight, the next most contentious issue is a path to citizenship for undocumented immigrants. Democrats and immigration activists say theyll walk without a clear route to citizenship at some point, even if its not an immediate one (Obamas plan would take at least 13 years to kick in). Its less clear how the Senates plan works, but it does commit to a path to citizenship as well, including an expedited
shortages are legit. Both sides warn that the details are far from complete, but as long as they keep talking, immigration reforms chances for passage are vastly improved. route for young undocumented immigrants and agricultural workers. The House side is still a mystery, though. Theres a bipartisan group working on a bill that contains an odd mix of pro-reform progressives and border hawk conservatives and theyve yet to leak any significant details about their plan. Theres a lot more skepticism about a path to citizenship on the House side, but key Republicans are leaving at least some wiggle room for them to adopt one. This is made somewhat easier by the fact path to citizenship, like amnesty is a vague, malleable term. Some Republicans, for example, say theyre against a special path to citizenship, but that theyd let undocumented immigrants get in the back of the line behind legal applicants for green cards and citizenship under a process that actuall y might give them a chance of being approved. As for House leadership, top Republicans including Boehner,
Add it all up and immigration reform, while nowhere near passage, is gliding along about as smoothly as supporters could hope so far.
Cantor, and especially Ryan are going out of their way to encourage bipartisan talks, even if they havent pledged to support the results.
(--) Immigration reform will pass nowdiverse coalition ensures: Mark Udall, 3/6/2013 (Colorados Senior Senator, OPINION: We Can Pass
Immigration Reform this Year, http://www.pagosadailypost.com/news/22720/ OPINION:_We_Can_Pass_Immigration_Reform_this_Year/, Accessed 3/8/2013, rwg)
Coloradans are making their voices heard: The
time has come for comprehensive immigration reform. From business leaders to labor groups and religious leaders to farmers, a diverse coalition that spans political parties and ideologies is demanding action. And in the U.S. Senate, members of both political parties agree that we must reform our outdated immigration laws this year . We're working to bridge the partisan divide that far too often has stopped Congress from addressing our country's pressing issues.
(--) Key republicans are coming over Volsky, 3/4/2013 (Ignor, is the Managing Editor of ThinkProgress.org. Igor is co-author
of Howard Deans Prescription for Real Healthcare Reform, Top Bush Officials Stand With Obama On Immigration Policy http://thinkprogress.org/special/2013/03/04/1665911/top-bush-officials-stand-withobama-on-immigration-policy/?mobile=nc sjg) Two former Republican secretaries of Homeland Security joined current Secretary Janet Napolitano in calling for comprehensive immigration reform during a Politico Breakfast event on Monday morning and defended the Obama
administrations recent release of thousands of undocumented immigrants from detention. Last week, conservatives characterized the release of nonviolent immigrants ahead of the looming budget cuts that went into effect on Friday, as an effort to politicize the cuts or exert retribution against states like Arizona. Speaking alongside former Secretaries Tom Ridge and Michael Chertoff at an event to mark the Departments anniversary, Napolitano expl ained that the majority of the releases were the result of the normal ebb and flow of moving individuals in and out of detention. Several hundred are related to sequester but it wasnt thousands, she said, adding that more immigrants will be released as budget cuts are implemented. Napolitanos predecessors, agreed, noting that the department is cu rrently
The job of the Secretary of Homeland Security with regard to securing the borders would be a heck of a lot easier if the United States Congress would forget about partisanship and come up with a comprehensive immigration plan, Ridge said,
hamstrung by a broken immigration system and the chaotic budgetary environment. eliciting applause from the audience.
18
(--) Comprehensive immigration reform will pass now: JORDAN FABIAN, 2/20/2013 (staff writer, President Obama: Immigration Leak
Won't Block Reform, http://abcnews.go.com/ABC_Univision/Politics/president-obamaimmigration-leak-block-reform/story?id=18547909, Accessed 2/21/2013, rwg)
President Barack
Obama on Wednesday confidently promised that Congress will pass a comprehensive

saying that a leaked copy of a White House proposal won't jeopardize the effort to overhaul the nation's immigration laws. A draft White House
immigration reform bill,
immigration plan leaked to the press over the weekend, which frustrated some Republicans working on a bill, since Obama pledged to withhold his plan while lawmakers crafted their own. The
the president phoned GOP senators to reiterate that he supports the negotiations in Congress. "It certainly did not jeopardize the entire process. The negotiations are still moving forward,"
White House claimed this week that the leak was unintentional and Obama said during an interview with Univision San Antonio affiliate KWEX. "Information floats out of Washington all the time; that shouldn't prevent anybody from moving forward."
(--) Extend our Fabian evidenceComprehensive immigration reform will pass now prefer our evidence it cites momentum in the negotiations (--) Immigration reform will pass nowpolitical climate is just right: Business and Legal Resources, 2/18/2013 (Congress: We need immigration
reform! http://hr.blr.com/HR-news/Staffing-Training/Visas-and-Eligibility-toWork/Congress-We-need-immigration-reform, Accessed 2/21/2013, rwg)
Liberals and many moderates, by contrast, want to give them a path to citizenship. Conservatives see legalizing such immigrants as amnesty, while liberals and many moderates see it as an earned right that will involve
deep background checks, evidence that the immigrants are working, measures to assess whether they owe back taxes and require payment, and probable penalties and filing fees for citizenship. Sounds
like a standoff, as so many other issues have been, but something
has changed , says Stevenson. Not only did President Barack Obama decisively win a second term, but Republicans found that the Hispanic/Latino communities across the country had voted decisively Democratic. Says Stevenson, The political climate may now be right for a perfect storm of effort on immigration reform.
(--) Immigration reform stands best chance in years to pass: Agence France-Presse, 2/17/2013 (White House defends immigration reform
proposal, http://www.rawstory.com/rs/2013/02/17/white-house-defends-immigrationreform-proposal/, Accessed 2/21/2013, rwg)
The National Immigration Forum, which advocates for immigration reform, said the White House proposal seemed very moderate, but should have gone further in overhauling the immigration system beyond citizenship and
enforcement. It also warned that a large increase in border patrol agents and immigration judges, as advocated in the presidents plan, w ould be better used at ports of entry and reducing the backlog for legal immigrants. The
burst of activity on Capitol Hill marks
the best chance in years to craft legislation to tighten border security, improve employment verification and bring the huge illegal immigrant population out of legal limbo.
(--) Obama has the political upper hand on immigration reform now:
Major Garrett, 2/21/2013 (staff writer, The Hidden Obstacles to Legal Immigration Reform, http://www.nationaljournal.com/columns/all-powers/the-hiddenobstacles-to-legal-immigration-reform-20130219?page=1, Accessed 2/21/2013, rwg)
19

This isnt a fail-safe border-security plan, but it is the bare minimum Republicans can accept and it still may not be enough (we wont know until lawmakers start voting). But its absence from the White House draft conspicuously informs Republicans that the White House is pushing legalization, and the fight to come will be on many fronts
The White House knows it has the upper hand politically and intends to dare Republicans to slow immigration reform over any issue. Informally, the White House has signaled to the
one of them over the GOPs ability to push enforcement while embracing but not delaying reform. Senate working group that it has until late March to finalize its bill or President Obama will spring his.
(--) Momentum is behind comprehensive immigration reform now: Sarah Hutchinson, 2/16/2013 (staff writer, Next Up in Congress: Immigration
Reform? http://www.houghtonstar.com/2013/02/16/next-up-in-congress-immigrationreform/, Accessed 2/21/2013, rwg)
This was not merely talk. In
recent weeks, comprehensive immigration reform has been steadily
approaching legislative reality. A bipartisan group of senators, four Democrats and four Republicans, was formed only a few weeks ago with the task of developing a framework for reform that could possibly develop into a bill. This group has spearheaded the effort to come up with solutions to the many problems of immigration in this country namely, illegal immigration, undocumented workers, insecure borders, and problems with the process of legal immigration, along with other issues. For once, this seems to be a movement that will receive much, if not total, support in Congress . Both Democrats and Republicans agree that immigration reform makes economic sense as immigrants are a key part of economic growth and development. Given the current economic uncertainty, immigration is a vital issue to address. The GOP also seeks to broaden its base, especially after the last presidential election where most of the Hispanic vote went to President Obama. Offering solutions to the immigration problem and presenting themselves as open to discussion will help develop support for the GOP platforms.
(--) Obama at his maximum political leverage on immigration now: Avlon 2/13/2013, John, senior columnist for Newsweek and The Daily Beast, CNN
contributor, winner of the National Society of Newspaper Columnists award for best online column in 2012; Obamas 2012 State of the Union and the Immigration Reform Moment, The Daily Beast http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2013/02/13/obama-s2013-state-of-the-union-and-the-immigration-reform-moment.html
In his State of the Union address, the
president backed away from policy prescriptions and used GOP rhetoric on immigration. Heand the lawmakers key to legislative successknow nows the time to push a reform deal through. President Obama is at a moment of maximum political leverage . But for all the bipartisan framing of his State of the Union speech, the basic fact of divided government makes legislative progress difficult. Immigration reform is the great exception. Six years after President Bush tried and failed to pass comprehensive immigration reform with odd-couple senators Ted Kennedy and John McCain, both parties have recognized that now is the time to get it done. Immigration reform is their
self-interest as well as the national interest.
(--) Pressure on Republicans will cause immigration reform to pass now: Reuters, 2/20/2013 (Obama says Immigration leak won't hurt reform talks,
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/02/21/us-usa-immigration-obamaidUSBRE91K03L20130221, Accessed 2/21/2013, rwg)
The White House, however, is counting on Republicans feeling pressure to move swiftly on immigration reform after they were chastened by Latino voters' rejection in the November election.
20
(--) Immigration reform more likely than ever: Mark Kogan, 2/14/2013 (staff writer, Immigration Reform 2013: A Closed-Doors Plan
From Congress Is Coming Soon, http://www.policymic.com/articles/26507/immigration -reform-2013-a-closed-doors-plan-from-congress-is-coming-soon, Accessed 2/21/2013, rwg)
Immigration reform seemed to have new life breathed into it almost overnight in 2013. With major Republican names such as Senator Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) changing their previous positions to support a bipartisan immigration overhaul effort that includes a road to citizenship, the reality of a comprehensive plan appears more likely than ever .
(--) Deal is in the worksimmigration reform will pass now: Mark Kogan, 2/14/2013 (staff writer, Immigration Reform 2013: A Closed-Doors Plan
From Congress Is Coming Soon, http://www.policymic.com/articles/26507/immigration -reform-2013-a-closed-doors-plan-from-congress-is-coming-soon, Accessed 2/21/2013, rwg)
The presidents stamp of approval on any piece of legislation is anathema to many Republicans, particularly in the House. How ever, the same exact law helmed by Rubio or McCain has an infinitely better chance of securing passage. Endorsements
of the need for immigration reform from both Republican responses following the State of the Union only acts as further proof that there is a deal in the works.
(--) Immigration reform possible nownew tone makes it so: Arizona Republic, 2/14/2013 (Immigration reform barriers crumbling,
http://www.azcentral.com/opinions/articles/20130213immigration-reform-barrierscrumbling.html, Accessed 2/21/2013, rwg)
Dare to hope for comprehensive immigration reform. But keep the pressure on Congress because plenty of barriers remain and the clock is ticking on political deadlines. The remarkable new tone that makes reform look possible was on display at Wednesdays Senate Judiciary Committee hearing. Yes, there were protesters calling for an end to deportations. Yes, there were differences about key issues. But there was also minimal grandstanding and a whole lot of talk about bipartisan efforts to work together.
(--) Immigration reform likely now in the upcoming weeks: Indo-Asian News Service 2/14/2013, If Congress fails to act on immigration, I will:
Obama, Lexis
The senators in turn told
the president "they remain confident that a bipartisan bill could be agreed to in the coming weeks," CNN said citing an aide to one of the Democratic senators "The Senators said the bipartisan negotiations were progressing well and that both sides were making progress and working together in good faith,"
the aide was quoted as saying. In January when the bipartisan group of senators was outlining its immigration framework the White House was telling senators and advocates that they were writing their own immigration bill, CNN said citing Democratic sources. Democrats then urged the president not to release his own bill, fearing such a move would stymie the delicate negotiations taking place among lawmakers in both parties, it said. In his State of the Union address Tuesday, Obama called on Congress to send him a comprehensive immigration reform package, saying both sides agree on what measures need to be included to make the system work better.
(--) Growing optimism that comprehensive immigration reform will pass now: Daniel Gonzlez, 2/3/2013 (staff writer, Paths to immigration reform will be bumpy,
http://www.azcentral.com/news/politics/articles/20130130immigration-reformbumpy.html, Accessed 2/21/2013, rwg)
21

Obama, who has called immigration reform his top legislative priority , has said he would like to fast-track the issue. Despite the obstacles, there is growing optimism that political leaders from both parties are more motivated than ever to reach an agreement this year given the overwhelming support Obama received from Latino voters and Republicans desire to attract them.
(--) GOP electoral concerns have generated momentum for passage Republican rank and file is shifting opinion Cohen 2/8/13 (Micah Cohen, New York Times, Signs of a Shift on Immigration
Among G.O.P. Rank-and-File, http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/02/08/signs-of-a-shift-on-immigrationamong-g-o-p-rank-and-file/)
With notable speed after the Nov. 6 presidential election, a number of Republican politicians and opinions makers from House Speaker John A. Boehner to the talk show host Sean Hannity altered their positions on immigration and expressed a new openness to comprehensive reform. Since then, the push to overhaul the nations immigration system appears to have sustained momentum. A new ABC News/Washington Post poll
found a jump in public approval of President Obamas handling of immigration, and most recent polls have found a majority of Americans support providing immigrants who have come here illegally a pathway to United States citizenship. So, has the shift on immigration among some but not all Republican legislators, strategists and media personalities filtered down to rank-and-file Republicans? The polling evidence with a few significant caveats says possibly, yes. There are signs of an uptick in Republican support for a pathway to citizenship, or at least a conditional pathway to citizenship. First, the caveats. Tracking opinions on immigration policy over time is tricky because each pollster asks different questions with different options, making for apples-to-oranges comparisons. In addition, when narrowing the focus to self-identified Republicans and Republican leaners, small sample sizes and large margin of sampling errors become a problem. A typical national survey includes about 1,000 respondents, making the subsample of Republicans pretty small, usually around 200 to 300. But keeping those disclaimers in mind, the most recent polls on immigration suggest an increase in the percentage of Republicans
who favor immigration reform that includes a route to United States citizenship. On average, the share of Republicans who favor providing undocumented immigrants with a path to citizenship is 48 percent among the six national polls
released so far in 2013 and included in the PollingReport.com database. (The release of a CNN poll conducted Jan. 14-15 did not provide a breakdown by political party and is not included in the average). Among the six previous polls that asked about a pathway to citizenship and released results by party identification, an average of only 38 percent of Republicans favored providing a path to citizenship. Question wording has an effect here. Two of the polls that found the highest level of Republican support emphasized the requirements illegal immigrants might have to meet to become citizens. Conservative voters might be more likely to support a path to citizenship if it involves certain qualifications. For instance, a Fox News poll conducted Jan. 15-17 among registered voters found that 56 percent of Republicans said the government should allow illegal immigrants to remain in the country and eventually qualify for U.S. citizenship, but only if they meet certain requirements like paying back taxes, learning English, and passing a background check. And a Gallup poll released this week found that 59 percent of Republicans would vote for a law that would allow undocumented immigrants living in the United States the chance to become legal residents or citizens if they meet certain requirements. On the other hand, a CBS News poll of adults conducted Jan. 24-27 found that only 35 percent of Republicans said illegal immigrants currently working in the country should be allowed to stay in their jobs and to eventual ly apply for U.S. citizenship. (CBS found that 25 percent of Republicans said illegal immigrants should be able to stay as guest workers and 36 percent said they should be required to leave the United States). The apples-to-apples comparisons we have are more mixed: Republican support in the midJanuary AP/GfK poll jumped to 53 percent from 31 percent in 2010. The latest ABC News/Washington Post poll moved to 42 percent Republican support for a path to citizenship from 37 percent in November 2012 (thats inside the margin of sampling error). T he CBS News poll did not move at all, finding 35 percent Republican support in both its December 2012 and late January 2013 surveys. And Quinnipiac polls, released on Thursday and in early December 2012, both found roughly 40 percent of registered Republicans support a path to citizenship and just more than 10 percent support legal status without citizenship. An uptick in Republican support for a pathway to citizenship could be statistical noise. And even if it is real, it could reverse itself. Some political science research suggests that anti-immigrant attitudes increase when immigration is in the news. But there are reasons to think that immigration, over all, has become less of a hot-button issue. A Pew study found that the number of illegal immigrants living in the United States has dropped since the 2007 push for change. Another Pew survey found that only 44 percent of Republicans see dealing with immigration as a top priority. Thats down from previous peaks of 69 percent in 20 07 and 61 percent
if Republican voters have warmed to providing a conditional path to citizenship, it could increase the likelihood of an overhaul becoming law by freeing House Republicans, in particular, to back some kind of reform.
in 2011. Further polling is needed before a more concrete picture of Republican attitudes emerges. But
Obamas best chance at success is immigration reform, but lots of work left Slater 2/14/2013, Joanna, Six Takeaways From The State of the Union, The Globe
and Mail (Canada), Lexis 22

Of all the major items on Mr. Obama's wish list, immigration reform is the one that may stand the best chance of legislative success - and even then, the outcome is far from certain. For the first time in many years, there is an appetite on both sides of the aisle for far-reaching legislation. Mr. Obama ticked
off the pieces of the puzzle: stronger border security, less bureaucracy, more visas for skilled workers and what he termed a "responsible pathway to earned citizenship" for undocumented immigrants currently in the country. "We know what needs to be done," he said. " Send
me a
comprehensive immigration reform bill in the next few months, and I will sign it right away."
(--) On the cusp of an agreement now: The Hill 2/8/13 House group 'on the cusp' of deal on immigration reform
http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/281987-house-group-on-the-cusp-ofdeal-on-immigration-reform
A bipartisan House group working on immigration is on the cusp of an agreement, a senior House Democrat participating in the talks said Friday. Rep. Xavier Becerra (Calif.), the chairman of the House Democratic Caucus, told reporters that lawmakers on both sides of the aisle were being pragmatic about the issue, and that he was hopeful the Senate would also deliver on legislation soon. The reality is that we are on the cusp of actually having an opportunity to put forward a bipartisan proposal in the House of Representatives, Becerra said at a news conference capping off the House Democrats annual retreat I am optimistic that the conversations will bear fruit . But make no mistake, there are voices out there that would love nothing more than to destroy ... the progress. Becerra would not
say whether the group hoped to release legislation next week in conjunction with President Obama's State of the Union address, which had been a target for the coalition. He said only that conversations are continuing. The bipartisan House group also includes Reps. John Carter (R-Texas), Mario Diaz-Balart (R-Fla.), Luis Gutirrez (D-Ill.), Sam Johnson (R-Texas) and Zoe Lofgren (Calif.). A Senate group that includes Marco Rubio (R-Fla.), John McCain (R-Ariz.), Dick Durbin (D-Ill.) and Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.) has already announced immigration reform principles, and is hoping to release legislation in March. Obama stressed during his appearance before House Democrats that he was committed to making changes to both immigration and gun control policies. Now, is the time, Obama said Thursday. I recognize that the politics arent always easy. House Democratic leaders also stressed at their wrap -up news conference that they would not take their eyes off the economy and deficits while working on guns and immigration. That subject permeated our entire discussion, said House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.). The global economic challenges that we all face, and the leadership role of America.
(--) Broad agreement over comprehensive immigration reform now Frey 2/9/2013, Mark, immigration law attorney, 2013: The Year of Comprehensive
Immigration Reform, Asian American Press, http://aapress.com/government/immigration/2013-the-year-of-comprehensiveimmigration-reform/
The election results are in, the tea leaves have been read, and the
two major political parties have found themselves surprisingly in agreement on an issue of national concern, comprehensive immigration reform. At the time of this writing, both the U.S. Senate and President Obama have broadly outlined their plans for immigration reform while a bipartisan panel of the Republican-led House of Representatives is working behind closed doors on its own draft
with the expectation that it will be released in days.
(--) Immigration reform will pass nowthe deal is in place: Russell Berman, 01/26/13 (Boehner says bipartisan group 'basically' has deal on
immigration reform, http://thehill.com/homenews/house/279445-boehner-confidencebipartisan-immigration-bill-will-be-approved-this-congress, Accessed 2/21/2013, rwg)
Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio) is
voicing confidence in the prospects for immigration reform in the House, saying that a bipartisan group of lawmakers basically [has] an agreement after more than three years of secret talks.
23
(--) Major push for immigration reform happening now: Russell Berman, 01/26/13 (Boehner says bipartisan group 'basically' has deal on
immigration reform, http://thehill.com/homenews/house/279445-boehner-confidencebipartisan-immigration-bill-will-be-approved-this-congress, Accessed 2/21/2013, rwg)
Obama is preparing to launch a major push for comprehensive immigration reform with a speech in Las Vegas next week. Much of the spotlight has focused on the Senate, where a bipartisan group is reportedly close to announcing an agreement on basic principles for an overhaul of the system.
That group now includes Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.), a potential presidential contender who laid out his principles for reform in the Wall Street Journal earlier this month.
(--) President and Congress not far away on immigration reform now: JORDAN FABIAN, 2/20/2013 (staff writer, President Obama: Immigration Leak
Won't Block Reform, http://abcnews.go.com/ABC_Univision/Politics/president-obamaimmigration-leak-block-reform/story?id=18547909, Accessed 2/21/2013, rwg)
While some differences between the White House and Senate plans exist, the president said that on the whole, they are very similar since they both include an earned path to citizenship, enhanced border security measures, and tougher crackdowns on busineses that hire undocumented immigrants. "I think that most of the proposals being talked about by Democrats and Republicans in the Senate and the House are roughly in the same area that I am," he said.
(--) Immigration reform will pass nowwill break the deadlock: Robert Brischetto, 2/14/2013 (former executive director of the Southwest Voter
Research Institute, Congress should pass smart immigration reform, http://www.mysanantonio.com/opinion/commentary/article/Congress-should-pass-smartimmigration-reform-4279975.php, Accessed 2/21/2013, rwg)
The overhaul of our immigration laws is likely to be the first significant bipartisan legislation to break the deadlock that has characterized Congressional politics in recent years. But how smart will reform be? Republicans took a beating in the November elections from two emerging language minorities with large immigrant populations, Latinos and Asians, who turned out in greater numbers than ever. Republican interest in mending fences with Latinos was evident when Florida's Sen. Marco Rubio was tapped to give the Republican response to the president's State of the Union speech. At least some members of Congress from both sides of the aisle have now come out in favor of providing an expedited path to citizenship for children brought to this country by their parents in violation of the law. Support for a version of the DREAM Act represents a reversal for Republicans,
who have repeatedly rejected it.
(--) GOP losses at the polls fueling support for immigration reform: Mike Lillis, 2/16/2013 (staff writer, Dems: Obama can act unilaterally on immigration
reform, http://thehill.com/blogs/regwatch/administration/283583-dems-recognize-thatobama-can-act-unilaterally-on-immigration-reform, Accessed 2/21/2013, rwg)
Although conservatives howled about administrative overreach, Obama's gamble paid off, as the president won more than 70 percent of the Hispanic vote at the polls a margin that has fueled the drive for immigration reform this year, as GOP leaders are anxious to avoid a similar divide in 2016.
(--) Comprehensive immigration reform is top priority and will pass Obamas push building momentum Fifield 2/5 (Anna, Republicans soften tone on immigration,
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/f6e10720-6fb6-11e2-8785-00144feab49a.html#axzz2K9hMM4pj, CMR) 24

Conservative Republicans in the House of Representatives have laid bare the challenges facing the prospects for comprehensive immigration reform this year, suggesting they will not be able to support a pathway to citizenship for illegal immigrants. However, some Republicans, apparently conscious that they are swimming against the demographic tide, are
moderating their tone in an effort to appeal to the Hispanic voters who turned away from the party in droves last year. President Barack Obama on Tuesday tried to build momentum for broad reforms
encompassing tougher border security, a pathway to citizenship and more visas for highly skilled workers. In meetings at the White House he told business leaders including Lloyd Blankfein of Goldman Sachs, Marissa Mayer of Yahoo and Coca-Colas Muhtar Kent that immigration reform was crucial for economic growth and competitiveness. But business has long been supportive of reform. Winning the backing of Republicans, who control the House and can stymie any legislation, will
be more difficult ,
given the widespread resistance among conservatives to rewarding people who came into the country illegally. A Gallup poll on Tuesday found widespread support for the key pillars of the reform plan put forward by Mr Obama, which itself is similar to a bipartisan blueprint being promoted by a gang of eight senators. More than seven in 10 would vote for a pathway to citizenship for undocumented immigrants now living in the US, the survey found. But Bob Goodlatte, a Virginia Republican and chairman of the House judiciary committee, asked during the first House hearing on immigration reform whether there was a middle ground between citizenship and deportation. Are there options to consider between the extremes of mass deportation and pathway to citizenship? he asked Julian Castro, mayor of the Texas city of San Antonio, who shot to fame last year when he gave the keynote address at the Democratic National Convention. I do believe that a pathway to citizenship should be the option that Congress selects I dont see that as an extreme option, Mr Castro responded. But Trey Gowdy, the South Carolina representative who was one of 41 House members to sign the Prohibiting Back -door Amnesty Act last year to counteract Mr Obamas move to give young illegal immigrants a reprieve from deportation, accused Democrats of refusing to compromise. Still, the very fact that the hearing took place was viewed as a positive step, given the hard line on immigration taken by Mr Goodlattes predecessor, Texas Repub lican Lamar Smith. "We must balance respect for the rule of law and respect for those waiting to enter this country legally, with care for the people and
are also signs of progress . A bipartisan group of lawmakers in the House is crafting an immigration reform plan behind the scenes, and Eric Cantor, the number two Republican in the House and one of its most conservative members, on Tuesday said that moves towards immigration reform, including those promoted by Republican senator Marco Rubio, were heading in the right direction .
families, most of whom just want to make a better life and contribute to America." There While we are a nation that allows anyone to start anew, we are also a nation of laws, and thats what makes tackling the iss ue of immigration reform so difficult, Mr Cantor said in an address to the conservative American Enterprise Institute. In looking to solve this problem soon, we must balance respect for the rule of law and respect for those waiting to enter this country legally, with care for the people and families, most of whom just want to make a better life and contribute to America, he said. Immigration reform is second-term week.
at the top of the presidents
legislative agenda and is expected to be the centrepiece of his state of the union address next
(--) Will pass Obamas push makes it priority and ensures momentum Seldin 2/7 (Jeff, US Battle Over Immigration Reform Gathers Steam, Voice of
America, http://www.eurasiareview.com/07022013-us-battle-over-immigration-reformgathers-steam/, CMR)
U.S. President Barack Obama Address. But already,
is expected to make immigration reform a priority in his State of the Union
talk of tackling this controversial issue is gaining momentum . There are an estimated 11-
million illegal immigrants in the United States with more still hoping to cross the border. Claudia Hernandez came here as a child, and like many in her situation, she feels she belongs in the U.S. I have been here more than half of my life, and I respect the United States. This is my
days into his second term, President Obama began the push for change . The time has come for common-sense, comprehensive immigration reform, he stated. The time is now. Already, Congress has begun to hold hearings. And a bipartisan group of senators, including former Republican presidential candidate John McCain, is pushing ahead with
country, she said. Only a plan of its own. We have been too content for too long to allow individuals to mow our lawn, serve us food, clean our homes and even watch our children while not affording them any of the benefits that make our country so great, McCain said. The
bi-partisan plan calls for tighter border controls as well as a path to citizenship, something President Obama insists upon. That worries Jim Gilchrist. He founded the Minuteman Project, a citizens group that helps guard the border. If we are going to grant
amnesty to 15 to 30-million people, who are here illegally now, we are going to be granting amnesty to 300 million, he added. Who will follow them over the next several decades. Other activists and lawmakers say proposals to secure the borders dont go far enough even though the United States spends more money on immigration enforcement than on all other federal law enforcement activities combined. In the meantime, the pressure is on both President Obama and Congress. Janet Murguia heads La Raza, the largest U.S. Hispanic civil rights and advocacy group. The reality is that Hispanic and Latin voters went to the polls on election day with the economy on their minds, but with immigration
25

reform in their hearts, she said. With
the State of the Union address as a platform, advocates on all sides of the issue are hoping something gets done, all too aware such hopes have been dashed before.
(--) Will pass quickly, Obama and GOP goals are aligned despite political blustering but its not guaranteed Robinson 2/5 (Eugene, WaPo Correspondent, Eugene Robinson: Immigration reform
likely, http://www.goerie.com/article/20130206/OPINION09/302069994/EugeneRobinson%3A-Immigration-reform-likely, CMR)
Some Republicans, but not all. Given
the extensive overlap between the "principles" laid out by a bipartisan

that
group of senators and those offered by President Barack Obama, I believe there is a strong possibility
immigration reform can be accomplished within the next few months . But it still won't be easy . Sen.
Marco Rubio, R-Fla., the key member of the Senate's pro-reform "Gang of Eight," is being pilloried from the right for having the temerity to face economic, sociological and political reality. Sen. David Vitter, R-La., called Rubio "amazingly naive on this issue" and also "nuts." Some of the conservative commentariat has been less reserved. National Review editor Rich Lowry called the Senate plan a "scam" that is likely to become "a monument to bad faith." My colleague Charles Krauthammer called the proposal "highly misleading" and complained that it would lead to "instant legalization" for those here without papers. Rush Limbaugh has vowed to fight the measure with all he's got -- but predicted that he and other opponents would ultimately lose. Many establishment figures in the party accept that the GOP cannot thrive, and perhaps cannot even survive, if the nation's biggest minority group becomes a permanent part of the Democratic Party coalition. They understand Rubio's analysis that immigration is a "threshold" issue for Latino voters -- that if Republicans are seen as uncompromising and even hostile on this issue, many Latinos will not even give the party a hearing on the rest of its philosophy and agenda. They recognize that undocumented workers are integral participants in the nation's economic life. The central task of immigration reform is the most controversial: designing some sort of legal status for the 11 million. Critics on the right complain that this is unfair to would-be immigrants who are "waiting in line" to come into the country by following the rules. Some would have to wait years; many, probably most, would never make it in. Truly comprehensive reform would include designing a viable legal pathway for those who want to come here and contribute their ambition, determination and skills. No such pathway exists now -- and none existed for the millions who decided to enter the country without papers or overstay their visas. As far as I can tell, there
is little meaningful difference between the Gang of Eight's plan and Obama's plan. You will hear lots
of noise about border security and enforcement. Feel free to pay no attention . Pro- and anti-reform Republicans will both agree that the Obama administration is somehow weak on enforcement. This is a laughable fiction; border security is much tougher under Obama than under his predecessors, and deportations have soared. But perhaps a loud fight over enforcement will satisfy the Republican base and make agreement on real issues possible . Republicans are eager to talk about some kind of temporary-worker program to accommodate those who come here -- mostly from
Mexico and Central America -- with the intention of working for a time and then returning to their home countries. Obama's framework for reform does not include a guest-worker provision, but the White House has indicated a willingness to look at the possibility. Obama could have taken a different tack. He could have written detailed proposed legislation rather than laying out broad principles, and in that bill he could have specified a short, direct path to full citizenship for the undocumented -- something Republicans could not conceivably accept. This would have further damaged the GOP, since Democrats would be able to tell Latino voters, "See? Once again the Republicans killed immigration reform. We're the ones who are on your side. Stick with us." Instead, Obama
and a group of influential senators of both parties will try to work together to bring 11 million people out of the shadows. Our government is tackling a big problem and may actually solve it . Imagine that.
(--) Will pass Obamas push is building momentum for compromise maintaining leverage is key Spetalnick 2/4 (Matt, and Richard Cowan, Obama to lobby for immigration reform
amid citizenship dispute, http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/02/05/us-usaimmigration-idUSBRE9130V620130205, CMR)
will seek to build momentum for immigration reform this week ahead of his State of the Union address, which is expected to challenge Republicans to take up an overhaul amid an increasingly contentious debate in Washington. Obama plans to hold a series of White House meetings with corporate chief executives, labor leaders and progressives on Tuesday to lobby for their support , and he has dispatched Homeland Security Secretary
(Reuters) - President Barack Obama Janet Napolitano to the Southwest to tout the administration's border security efforts. The flurry of activity, including new moves in Congress, comes amid disagreement between the Democratic president and many Republicans over the question of citizenship for illegal immigrants, an
26

obstacle that could make it hard to reach a final deal on sweeping legislation. House Majority Leader Eric Cantor, the second-ranking Republican in the House of Representatives, will address immigration reform and other issues in a speech on Tuesday to the conservative American Enterprise Institute. In excerpts to that speech, Cantor walked a fine line on future citizenship for those in the United States illegally. "We must balance respect for the rule of law and respect for those waiting to enter this country legally, with care for people and families, most of whom just want to make a better life and contribute to America," he said. Obama
is expected to use his February 12 State of the Union speech to Congress - a major annual address by the president in which he lays out his legislative priorities for the year - to keep the heat on Republicans , who appear more willing to accept an immigration overhaul after they were chastened by Latino voters' rejection in the November election. But differences have emerged since Obama and a bipartisan Senate
working "group of eight" rolled out their proposals last week aimed at the biggest U.S. immigration revamp in decades. Obama wants to give America's 11 million illegal immigrants a clear process to achieve citizenship, including payment of fines, criminal background checks and going to the "back of the line" behind legal applicants. He has vowed to introduce his own bill if Congress fails to act in a timely fashion. But top Republicans want to defer citizenship until the county's borders are deemed more secure - a linkage that Obama and most of his fellow Democrats would find hard to accept. Obama's
aides are confident the president has enough leverage to avoid giving
ground . They believe that if the reform effort fails in Congress, voters are more likely to blame the Republicans and they would suffer in the
2014 midterm congressional elections.
(--) View the UQ through political capital Obama has enough to forge compromise but its not a done deal Avlon 1/31/13 (john, Immigration Reform Proposal Shows Similar Ideas Betweeen
Bush and Obama, http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2013/01/31/immigrationreform-proposal-shows-similar-ideas-betweeen-bush-and-obama.html, CMR)
Fast-forward six years, and the right-wing talk-radio crowd is weakened. The evangelical, law-enforcement, and business communities are now united behind comprehensive immigration reform. Responsible
Republicans know they cannot afford to alienate Hispanics any longer. And the presence of Florida Sen. Marco Rubioa onetime Jeb Bush protgis an essential addition to the
coalition. Senator Rubio, a Tea Party choice, is well respected and well liked and trusted, adds Wehner. With him as th e lead in these negotiations, conservatives are more willing to consider immigration reform than in the past. Youre
not seeing the explosion of opposition now that we saw in 2007. That doesnt mean it wont happen ; but for now, it hasnt.
Long story short: its much easier for Marco Rubio to make the case for the Senates bipartisan path to citizenship than to argue on behalf of President Obamas bill, which would be a nonstarter to much of the base. And so the president wisely held off from offering h is specific policy vision in the much-hyped Las Vegas speech earlier this week. Its not unlike the reason Harry Truman gave for naming the postwar European -aid bill after his secretary of state, George Marshall: Anything that is sent up to the Senate and H ouse with my name on it will quiver a couple of times and then turn over and die. Unlike Truman and George W. Bush, however,
Obama is pushing for this bill at a time of
maximum political capital and national popularity , with polls showing his approval rating at nearing 60 percent. To truly
depolarize this policy debate, its tempting to imagine Obama enlisting President Bush to make the sale to the nation. But W. has made a determined effort to stay out of political and policy debates since leaving 1600. The first post-election policy event of the Bush Center was a conference on immigration reform, in which the former president let himself wax poetic on his unfinished legacy: America can be a lawful society and a welcoming society at the same time, he said. As our nation debates the proper course of action relating to immigration, I hope we do so with a benevolent spirit and keep in mind the spirit of immigrants. A lead researcher the Bush Center, Matthew Denhart, hails Washingtons full circle. Its funny how politics work sometimesthe details of immigration reform announced this week by the Senate and White House are virtually indistinguishable from what was advanced by President Bush and other leaders in 2007 ... While its unfortunate immigration reform failed to pass Congress five years ago and has languished ever since, the current plan holds promise to boost economic growth, which should be our countrys top priority. Other Bush allies, like the Goldwater Institutes Clint Bolick, who co-authored a recent Wall Street Journal op-ed on immigration reform with Jeb Bush, are balancing optimism with skepticism as they look at the current proposal: It is a step forward with some excellent features, says Bolick. But entering the country has to hav e a consequence, and providing a path to citizenship rather than permanent residency will encourage future illegal immigration, just as the 1986 law did. It also fails to confront preferences for distant-family members that crowd out work-based immigration. But it is great to see Republicans and Democrats coming to grips with immigration issues. The renewed atmosphere of something like bipartisanship is refreshingand, of course, needed, to get anything done in a divided government. But one final irony is worth noting. The current Gang of Eight plan learns the lesson of opposition to the 2007 proposal by front-loading border security before any progress toward a pathway to citizenship is made. The
trigger mechanism and metrics for establishing this success are still unclear. But the fact is that border security dramatically increased during the Obama administrations first term, with officials almost doubling the number of agents patrolling
the border from what was in place when Bush made his speech to the nation. The walls have continued to be built, and criminal deportations have hit record highs. Combined with the effects of the Great Recession, which reduced demand for undocumented workers, the Obama administration has
quietly accumulated a record of success on a front usually considered a conservative policy priority. And so the stars seem to be aligning into one of those moments where, as Seamus Heaney
27

once wrote, hope
and history rhyme. Make no mistakethere is still plenty of time for Washington to
screw this up. But there is urgency to the effort, rooted in the parties individual self-interest as well as the national
interest. After all, if President Obama and President Bush can agree on the substance of something as contentious as immigration reform, surely
it isnt too much to hope that our divided Congress can find a way to reason together on this issue.
(--) Prefer predictive ev GOP objections are political snapshots Reuters 2/5 (House Republicans try to chip away at immigration reform,
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/02/06/us-usa-immigrationidUSBRE9130V620130206, CMR)
'EARLY SHADOW BOXING' Democratic Representative Jerrold Nadler of New York warned
against reading too much into Republican objections, calling them "early shadow boxing" before rigorous negotiations get under way.
(--) Obama will dedicate ALL his PC to immigration makes bipartisan deal likely Waterman 2/3 (Margaret, Immigration reform likely, BU professor, students say,
http://dailyfreepress.com/2013/02/03/immigration-reform-likely-bu-professor-studentssay/, CMR)
passing of immigration reform now appears likely due to political strategy and benefits it would create for American business, Boston University professors and students said. This time its going to happen simply because the Republican Party has no choice but to support some kind of immigration reform package, said i nternational r elations professor Joseph Wippl. They have no choice because theyre not going to be able to
An ongoing battle in the U.S., the select anyone as president unless they stop or change their profile of being an anti-immigration political party. U.S. President Barack Obama delivered a speech on his proposals for immigration reform in Las Vegas Tuesday, outlining his thoughts on the importance of reform to his country and constituents. The promise we see in those who come here from every corner of the globe, thats always been one of our greatest strengths, Obama said in his speech. It keeps our workforce young, it keeps our country on the cutting edge. And it helped build the greatest economic engine the world has ever known. Obama said immigrants helped start technology giants such as Google and Yahoo!, and that one out of four technology startups in recent years can be attributed to the work of immigrants. He also said immigrants are responsible for creating new industries that in turn, created new jobs. We all know that today we have an immigration system that is out of date, and badly broken a system that is holding us back instead of helping us grow our economy and strengthen our middle class, he said. Wippl said immigration reform is a complicated issue, but may take focus away from bettering the skills and education of American citizens. It bothers me a bit simply because, number one, it means were not educating our own population and secondly, were stealing skilled people from countries that need skilled people in order to develop, he said. However, Wippl said he can see the position of American business and how increasing numbers of skilled workers are necessary. It should give us more incentive to educate our own people, Wippl said. David Torres, a College of Arts and Sciences senior, said Obama has deported more immigrants than past presidents have, including George Bush and Bill Clinton. Obama isnt exactly a champion of immigration reform however, one of the things that he has done is put it on the table, Torres said. Torres said
Obama is urging Congress to consider the reform bill and attempting to get it passed by appealing to both political parties . I do like that hes getting bipartisan support more, Torres said. I think its been important and shows that hes serious about it and its good leadership
Obama has done wonderfully. He said Obama I think thats something President
might be pushing harder for immigration reform now that he does not have to worry about campaigning again or being reelected. Hes doing it now that its his second term
because theres not necessarily ramifications, Torres said. Its easier to get away with somewhat much more controversial legislation.
(--) Obamas push ensures a quick, bipartisan deal Fort Worth Star-Telegram 2/5 (Finally, a bipartisan approach to immigration policy,
http://www.bnd.com/2013/02/05/2484257/finally-a-bipartisan-approach.html, CMR)
With leadership from the president , both political parties and both houses of Congress, comprehensive immigration reform - one of the most divisive issues in the nation for a generation - appears to be on a fast track for approval.
Of course, that
doesn't mean that grand plans offered back-to-back by a bipartisan group of senators and President
28

Obama won't
be sidetracked, as anything can happen in a politically polarized nation and on such a volatile subject. But the fact that Republicans and Democrats are in agreement that something has to be done, and that the two newly unveiled plans for immigration overall have similar objectives, it would be
regrettable if Congress botched this opportunity. Obviously influenced by presidential election results in November, in which Obama got 71 percent of the Hispanic vote, many
Republican lawmakers have been less strident in their opposition to immigration reform. Perhaps the hottest of flash points has been any provision that even resembles a path to citizenship for the
estimated 11 million people in the country illegally. But proposals presented last week by the president and the "gang of eight" senators provide for a citizenship path, although with some different nuances. The Senate group includes four Republicans (John McCain and Jeff Flake of Arizona, Marco Rubio of Florida and Lindsey Graham of South Carolina) and four Democrats (Richard Durbin of Illinois, Charles Schumer of New York, Robert Menendez of New Jersey and Michael Bennet of Colorado). The senators' plan released Monday calls for illegal immigrants, before obtaining legal permanent residency or a green card, to register with the government, pass a background check, pay a fine and applicable taxes, learn English and get in line behind those already pursuing legal routes to citizenship. Principles outlined Tuesday in Obama's proposal are similar, but under the president's plan illegal immigrants granted work permits would be able to apply for a green card sooner, thus putting them on a somewhat quicker path to citizenship. It's difficult to know how workable either proposal would be, considering the financial costs to the illegal applicant and the possibility of the individual remaining in a constant holding pattern while awaiting the opportunity for full citizenship. But for most, to be free to work and remain in the country legally will take them out of the shadows even though some immigration advocates suggest such a status will create a permanent "second-class citizen." The president insists that for any comprehensive plan to work, "we've got to bring our legal immigration system into the 21st century because it no longer reflects the realities of our time. For example, if you are a citizen, you shouldn't have to wait years before your family is able to join you in America." Visas for same-sex partners could be applied for by citizens and residents under Obama's proposal, something likely to be opposed by many conservatives in Congress. Other provisions of the proposals include: more border security; an employment verification system and harsher penalties for employers who knowingly hire an illegal immigrant; provisional legal status for agriculture workers and those who entered the U.S. illegally as children; and expanding visas and issuing green cards to foreigners who earn graduate degrees in certain fields in this country. The
Senate is expected to hold its first hearing in about two weeks, with legislation introduced as early as March , according to McClatchy Newspapers. The comprehensive approach is gaining widespread support
leaders and organizations. from a cross-section of business, educational and religious
(--) Top priority passage likely West 2/5 Vice President and Director, Governance Studies @ Brookings, (Darrell, How the
Politics of Immigration Reform Have Changed, http://www.brookings.edu/research/opinions/2013/02/05-immigration-reform-west, CMR)
But now we have leading
Democrats and Republicans who have announced their support of a bipartisan reform package. With the Senate moving towards action, House Republicans indicating we should be open to immigrants, and President Barack Obama making immigration reform a top priority , the country appears close to taking meaningful action
on this important issue. While there are many hurdles yet to overcome, it is important to note the dramatic changes in the politics of immigration reform that have unfolded in the past few months.
(--) Obamas push is unifying business and labor ensures passage Nakamura 2/4 (David, Obama to meet with labor, business leaders on immigration,
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/post-politics/wp/2013/02/04/obama-to-meet-with-laborbusiness-leaders-on-immigration/, CMR)
President Obama
will meet separately Tuesday with labor and business leaders on immigration reform, as the White House seeks to enlist the often at-odds interest groups in a common push toward a comprehensive legislative package. Obama has invited 16 labor and progressive leaders, including the heads of the AFL-CIO and NAACP, to the White House at 11 a.m., and a dozen big business chief executives, including the heads of Coca Cola, Goldman Sachs and Yahoo, at 3:20 p.m. The president will continue his dialogue with outside leaders on a number of issues including immigration reform and how it fits into his broader economic agenda, and his efforts to achieve balanced deficit
reduction, the White House announced. The lobbying strategy is similar to the script Obama followed in the recent negotiations over the fiscal
increasing pressure on Congress from different interest groups with large networks outside Washington will help Obama in his pursuit of an ambitious secondcliff, when he also met with labor and business groups. The White House believes that
29

term agenda, including stricter gun-control laws and immigration reform. Though business and labor are often on opposing sides of the bargaining table, both sides have expressed support for an overhaul of the nations immigration laws and have pledged to try to find common ground . The biggest obstacle is likely to involve
creation of a guest worker program, which would grant temporary visas to foreign workers, especially in agriculture and some high -tech engineering fields in which employers say there is a shortage of American workers.
(--) Obama is using capital to ensure quick passage of immigration reform but he is letting Congressional leaders hammer out the details Pilkington, 1/30 (Ed, 1/30/2013, The Guardian, Immigration reform: Obama pushes forward with warning to GOP; President's call to action on
'common-sense reform' comes amid quiet optimism that deadlock immigration can be broken, http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013/jan/29/obama-immigrationreform-republicans, CMR)) Barack Obama
has warned Republicans that if they attempt to block his drive towards comprehensive immigration reform he will send his own legislation to Congress and force them to vote on it.
In a speech that sounded at times more like a campaign rallying cry than a presidential address, the US president said lawmakers on Capitol Hill should move swiftly. "The time has come for common-sense, comprehensive immigration reform. The time is now; now is the time," he said.
The speech underlined the game of poker he is playing with Republican leaders, particularly in the House of
Representatives. If they fail to fall in line over immigration reform, he implied, they would reap the electoral consequences. "If Congress is unable to move forward in a timely fashion, I will send forward a bill based on my proposal and insist they vote on it right away," he said.
Obama is hoping that the energy he gained from that presidential election victory 10 weeks ago will act as the fuel that will push immigration reform through the House and onto the statute books by the end of this
year. Underscoring the message, Obama delivered his keynote immigration speech at Del Sol high school in Nevada, a state whose population is more than a quarter Latino. Their overwhelming support for Obama in the presidential election last November helped him win Nevada by a comfortable six points. Republicans' share of the Latino vote in the presidential election fell to an all-time low.
Obama did not, however, spell out any detail in his speech. Instead, he has decided to leave the heavy lifting in framing the detail of a comprehensive reform to the bipartisan group of eight senators who on Monday announced their own
mission to introduce a bill to the US Senate. The four principles that the president outlined were identical to those adopted by the senators just a day earlier.
White House officials see the confluence of proposals from the administration and leading senators as a major sign that the gridlock on immigration can finally be broken . A senior administration official told reporters that the similarity of the proposals "gives us a great deal of encouragement that this is something we're going to be able to get done and get done quickly ". At the heart of both Obama and the senators' plans is a pathway to citizenship for the 11 million undocumented
immigrants most of whom are Latino currently living within the US. "For comprehensive immigration reform to work, it must be clear from the outset that there is a pathway to citizenship," Obama said.
The precise details of that pathway how direct and how difficult it is is likely to be the stuff of fraught political battles ahead . To assuage Republican opposition, Obama emphasised that undocumented immigrants would have to go "to the
back of the line, behind all the folks who are trying to come here legally". They would have to pass a background check, pay a penalty and taxes from the moment they were granted temporary work permits, as well as learn English. As a further fillip to the conservatives, he adopted some of the language used by Mitt Romney on the presidential campaign trail last year. He said he would continue to insist on strengthened border security, and crack down on employers who knowingly hire undocumented workers. White House officials indicated that the plan was to extend the E-Verify system, that allows employers to check on the immigration status of job applicants, across the country over the next five years. Introducing a national E-Verify law was one of Romney's main campaign pledges.
With the eight senators, who include senior Democratic figures such as Chuck Schumer and Dick Durbin as well as prominent Republicans John McCain and Marco Rubio, taking the lead on drafting legislation, Obama confined most of his remarks to making the case for change .
(--) Immigration reform will pass now, but Obama influence is key Boerma, 1/31/2013 (Lindsey, "This will be the year" Congress passes immigration
reform, Schumer says http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-34222_162-5756696910391739/this-will-be-the-year-congress-passes-immigration-reform-schumer-says/ sjg Democratic leadership in the Senate believes "strongly," Sen. Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., told reporters today, "that this will be the year that Congress finally gets some common-sense immigration reform across the 30

finish line." Two days after President Obama delivered a speech in Las Vegas outlining his proposals for comprehensive reform on
immigration that includes a path to citizenship for the 11 million illegal immigrants currently living in the United States, Schumer, the thirdranking Senate Democrat, said Majority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nev., "has
told us he'll do whatever it takes to get a good,
strong, bipartisan bill through the Senate." Schumer said the goal is for the Senate's bill to get through by "late spring or summer," giving the Republican-led House "ample time" to pass legislation before the end of 2013. Though "we have a long way to go," Schumer said, the blueprint put forward by a bipartisan group of eight senators that largely aligns with the president's plan, "was a major breakthrough."
(--) Immigration reform will pass now, but Obama influence is key to ensure its not bogged down in debate Condon, 1/29/2013 (Stephanie Obama: "Now is the time" for immigration reform
http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-34222_162-57566500-10391739/obama-now-is-the-timefor-immigration-reform/ sjg) Taking a cooperative and optimistic tone, President Obama today urged the public to support bipartisan efforts at immigration reform, appealing both to voters' pocketbooks and their sentimentality. "I'm here
because most Americans agree it's time to fix the system that's been broken for way too long," Mr. Obama said at Del Sol High School in Las Vegas, Nevada. "Business leaders, faith leaders, labor leaders, law enforcement and leaders from both parties are coming together to say now is the time... Now's the time to do this so we can strengthen our economy and strengthen our country's future." The
president today unveiled a blueprint for comprehensive immigration reform very similar to the framework released a day earlier by a bipartisan group of eight senators. Mr. Obama's plan includes steps for smarter
enforcement of immigration laws, a pathway to citizenship for the nation's 11 million undocumented immigrants, and improvements in the legal immigration system. "It looks
like there's a genuine desire to get this done soon, and that's very encouraging," Mr. Obama said. "But this time action must follow. We can't allow immigration reform to get bogged down in an endless debate." The president said his blueprint should
provide Congress with "key markers" as they work on their own legislation, noting that his plan includes ideas supported by liberals and conservatives alike.
(--) Obama has political capital needed for immigration push Lantigua, 1/29/2013 (John Obama wants immigration reform quickly; promises
counter proposal if Congress stalls http://www.palmbeachpost.com/news/news/nationalgovt-politics/obama-wants-immigration-reform-quickly-promises-co/nT9ft/ sjg The presidents speech left the impression that he believes reforming immigration quickly is more important than reforming immigration right, Rubio said. A reform of our immigration laws is a consequential
undertaking that deserves to be subjected to scrutiny and input from all involved. That exchange foreshadows what is expected to be a contentious debate. The framework for the new immigration law offered by the eight senators four Republicans and four Democrats calls for augmented security at the nations borders, including the increased use of drones to monitor illegal border crossings, a demand of Republicans. But the plan also detailed a pathway to citizenship for about 11 million undocumented persons in the country now, a demand of Democrats. The plan calls for enacting standards that would take years for immigrants to meet. Despite
the agreement, members of Congress on both sides are warning that the path to passage will not be easy. His threat of putting something of his own on the table is definitely meant to get them moving, said David Abraham,
an expert on immigration law at the University of Miami School of Law. But, that said, he much prefers to have this be a Senate initiative and a bipartisan effort (and) not have to spend his own political capital getting this done. And Obama
does have political capital, especially on the immigration issue. The bipartisan effort on a new immigration agenda was provoked by the November
elections when Obama beat GOP presidential candidate Mitt Romney 71-26 percent among Hispanic voters. The GOP had taken a hard line on overhauling immigration during the campaign, but GOP leaders are now saying that they need to attract more Latino voters and admit that they are supporting immigration reform as a way of doing so. Obama marked that moment in his speech Tuesday.
(--) Will pass nowbipartisan support means immigration reform will pass: JORDAN FABIAN, 1/30/2013 (staff writer, Obama Confident Immigration Reform
Passes This Year, http://abcnews.go.com/ABC_Univision/Politics/president-obama31
Politics DA/Answers SUDI 2013 confident-immigration-reform-passes-year/story?id=18358660, Accessed 1/30/2013, rwg)

President Barack Obama
expressed confidence on Wednesday that he would sign comprehensive immigration reform into law by the end of this year. In an interview with Univision's Maria Elena Salinas, Obama
explained that significant details of a bill still must be worked out by lawmakers, including the structure of a pathway to citizenship for many of the 11 million undocumented immigrants. But Obama
said that the progress made by a bipartisan group of
lawmakers in the Senate has given him hope that a deal can get done.
(--) Immigration reform will pass nowObama has the votes: Cheyenne Hopkins, 1/20/2013 (staff writer, Plouffe Predicts Passage of Gun Control,
Immigration Measures, http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-01-20/plouffe-predictspassage-of-gun-control-immigration-measures.html, Accessed 1/20/2013, rwg)
President Barack Obamas
proposed immigration law changes and gun control measures should be able to pass
Congress,
said David Plouffe, Obamas senior political adviser. Newtown has changed the debate, Plouffe said on CNNs State of the
Union today. Sadly, it took a tragedy like that, but youre seeing a lot of people -- by the way Democrats and Republicans -- think differently about this issue since this tragedy. Obama will be officially sworn in today, as required by the Constitution, in a small ceremony at the White House. He will take the oath of office a second time tomorrow in a public event on the steps of the Capitol. Chief Justice John Roberts will administer both oaths. Vice President Joe Biden was sworn in earlier today for a second term by Supreme Court Justice Sonia Sotomayor at his residence at the Naval Observatory in Washington. Obama
has staked out a second term agenda of overhauling
immigration , gun control and the tax code. Plouffe took an optimistic stance, saying that the time has come for both immigration change
and gun control. Obamas first term was largely consumed by repairing economic wreckage from the 2008 financial crisis and getting his health care law passed. His second term is starting with efforts to reach a compromise with Congress on raising the debt ceiling and cutting deficit spending. Plouffe
said Congress has the votes to pass Obamas agenda.
(--) Immigration reform will pass --- Obama is making an aggressive push and his leadership is key Foley, 1/25/2013 (Elise, 1/25/2013, Obama To Make Major Immigration Moves Next
Week, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/01/25/obama-immigrationplan_n_2551896.html, rwg) WASHINGTON -- President Barack Obama announced after a meeting with the Congressional Hispanic Caucus on Friday that he will lay out some of his plans for immigration reform on Tuesday in Las Vegas. Members of
the caucus who were present at the meeting said Obama assured them that he shares the group's basic beliefs about immigration reform, most notably that making a pathway to citizenship for undocumented immigrants -- which some Republicans oppose -- is an absolute must as they push for legislation. "The President was pleased to hear from CHC members and noted that they share the same vision, including that any legislation must include a path to earned citizenship," the administration in a statement.
"The President further noted that there is no excuse for stalling or delay." Seven members of Congress were present at the meeting, including Congressional
Hispanic Caucus Chairman Ruben Hinojosa (D-Texas), Sen. Robert Menendez (D-N.J.), Immigration Task Force Chairman Luis Gutierrez (D-Ill.) and Chairman of the Democratic Caucus Xavier Becerra (D-Calif.). Obama told the group that his plans for immigration reform align with their own, especially with regards to the need for a pathway to citizenship, Becerra said after the meeting. "He said on more than one occasion that his principles virtually mirrored the Congressional Hispanic Caucus principles -- and if you look at our principles, we are determined to fight against creating a second class of Americans," Becerra told HuffPost. "I don't think there's any light between where we are and where he is on the issue of having America legally create a second class of citizens." The Associated Press reported that
the White House will launch an effort on immigration next week, as will a bipartisan group of senators, likely the so-called "gang of eight" -- four Republicans, four Democrats -- who have already begun to work toward a deal. A Senate Democratic aide, who was not authorized to speak publicly on the
group's plans, told HuffPost that the senators hope to release a set of principles in February, and then a bill. A pathway to citizenship for the estimated 11 million undocumented immigrants already in the United States is considered a non-negotiable for many Democrats and immigrant advocates, who argue anything else would result in a huge group of second-class residents. Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) said Wednesday that advocates for a pathway to citizenship will have to cave and accept temporary status instead, with no special road to citizenship. Meanwhile, senators plan to move ahead on other piecemeal immigration bills. The Hill reported Friday that Sens. Orrin Hatch of Utah and Marco Rubio of Florida are teaming up with Democratic Sens. Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota and Chris Coons of Delaware to introduce a bill next week that focuses on visas for high-skilled workers. Obama administration officials have said they believe piece-by-piece reform would be less productive, but Hatch told The Hill he thinks his bill could aid in the broader legislative effort. "I think we need to break the ice and let people know that this is the art of the doable ... at least I think it's very doable, and I
32

think everybody ought to come on [to support it] because it makes sense and it's a bipartisan bill already," he said. "If we put that through that says to them, well maybe we can do more and if we can do more, I'm going to be right there helping." Becerra said that the president indicated again on Friday to the Congressional Hispanic Caucus that he wants a comprehensive bill. The congressman declined to speak about the bipartisan work in the House, but said there is "lots of conversation" going on between the members. His view is that bipartisan groups in each chamber should work on their own bills, then come together to find an agreement that can pass both houses, he said. "It's up to Congress to pass legislation, and so Congress ultimately has to draft and present legislation," he said. "And the smartest thing would be to draft a bipartisan bill that has bicameral support with the president
Menendez said in an email that he is "very enthused" about Obama's commitment to comprehensive immigration reform. "The President's leadership is essential to our ultimate success," he said. "I applaud him for announcing his commitment at the very beginning of this term and hope that the bipartisan process that is ongoing in the Senate will lead us to passage of a bill he can sign." This story has been updated with comments from Becerra, Menendez and a Senate Democratic
right there at the helm as well." aide.
(--) Multiple forces make immigration reform likely now: Bismark Tribune, 1/23/2013 (Immigration reform attainable,
http://bismarcktribune.com/news/opinion/editorial/immigration-reformattainable/article_8e6c86dc-64a9-11e2-a838-0019bb2963f4.html, Accessed 1/23/2013, rwg)
It seems the need for immigration reform has hit a critical mass for Republicans and Democrats in Congress. The time, proponents of reform say, is right to push reform to the forefront. Theres more agreement on what might constitute immigration reform than there is over budgets, debt and
government spending. The Republican effort, key to passage in the U.S. House, runs along the lines of tightened border security, employer checks and a path to legal status for non-citizens illegally in this country that includes fines and payment of back taxes. It includes an acknowledgement that there must be pragmatic methods of coming to terms with the 11 million illegal immigrants in the U.S.; it must be a means thats earned, with a goal thats attainable. President Barack Obama
alluded to immigration reform in his second inaugural address. Pushing conservatives in the U.S. House is a coalition of business , evangelical and law enforcement leaders. At the same time a bipartisan group of eight U.S. senators is backing comprehensive immigration reform in that chamber. It includes Sens. John McCain, R-Ariz., Jeff Flake, R-Ariz., Charles
Schumer, D-N.Y., Dick Durbin, D-Ill., Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., Robert Menendez, D-N.J., Michael Bennet, D-Colo., and Mike Lee, R-Utah. In addition, U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Fla., a Cuban American, has spoken in support of immigration reform.
(--) Immigration reform will pass nowtop GOP leaders on board: Brooke Berger, 1/23/2013 (staff writer, Villaraigosa: Comprehensive Immigration
Reform Is Not Amnesty, http://www.usnews.com/opinion/articles/2013/01/23/villaraigosa-comprehensiveimmigration-reform-is-not-amnesty, Accessed 1/23/2013, rwg)
Do you expect cooperation from the GOP? I recently had an opportunity to have a very short conversation with Sen. [John] McCain. He seems to be very optimistic about the chances of passing comprehensive reform.
I'm working with a group of eight senators, bipartisan, who realize the time is now, and my hope is that both parties will work together to fix this broken immigration system.
(--) Immigration reform will pass nowObama holds all the cards now: Chris Weigant, 1/23/2013 (staff writer, Handicapping Obama's Second Term
Agenda, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/chris-weigant/obama-secondterm_b_2537802.html, Accessed 1/23/2013, rwg)
Republicans will bend over backwards in an effort to convince Latinos that their proposal will work out just fine for everyone. Latinos, however, aren't stupid. They know that being denied any path to citizenship equals an effort to minimize their voice on the national political stage. Which is
holds all the cards in this fight . Because this is the one issue in his agenda which Republicans also have a big vested interest in making happen. Obama and the Democrats will, I believe, hold firm on
why, as I said, Obama
33

think a comprehensive immigration bill will likely pass some time this year, perhaps before the summer congressional break. The path to citizenship it includes will be long, expensive
their insistence on a path to citizenship, and I and difficult (Republicans will insist on at least that), but it will be there.
(--) Immigration reform will pass nowsupport from multiple sectors: Associated Press, 1/20/2013 (Top Obama aide optimistic on immigration reform,
hopeful on new gun safety laws, http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/federal_government/top-obama-aide-optimisticon-immigration-reform-hopeful-on-new-gun-safety-laws/2013/01/20/faa0719c-630a11e2-889b-f23c246aa446_story.html, Accessed 1/20/2013, rwg)
WASHINGTON A top White House adviser says the
stars seemed aligned for Congress to pass comprehensive immigration reform this year. Speaking Sunday on CNNs State of the Union, David Plouffe (pluhf) said support for reform is strong among lawmakers, the business community and the American people . He says theres, quote, no reason immigration reform shouldnt move through Congress this year.
(--) Obama holds all the cards on immigration now: Chris Weigant, 1/23/2013 (staff writer, Handicapping Obama's Second Term
reform. President Obama holds virtually all the cards , politically, on this one. All Republicans who can read either demographics or polling numbers know full well that this may be their party's last chance not to go the way of the Whigs. Their support among Latinos is dismal, and even
The second big agenda item is immigration that's putting it politely. Some Republicans think they have come up with a perfect solution on how to defuse the issue, but they are going to be proven sadly mistaken in the end, I believe. The Republican plan will be announced by Senator Marco Rubio at some point, and it will seem to mirror the Democratic plan -- with one key difference. Republicans -- even the ones who know their party has to do something on the immigration problem -- are balking at including a "path to citizenship" for the 11 million undocumented immigrants who are already in America.
(--) Immigration reform will pass nowsupport from conservatives: Alexander Bolton, 1/20/2013 (staff writer, Sen. Rubio rallying conservatives behind
comprehensive immigration reform, http://thehill.com/homenews/senate/278159-rubiorallying-conservatives-behind-principles-for-comprehensive-immigration-reform, Accessed 1/20/2013, rwg)
is rallying conservatives behind immigration reform with a set of principles he unveiled this week and has promoted with a media blitz. Proponents of comprehensive immigration reform, who mainly reside on the left, are surprised that Rubio, a Republican from Florida, has generated so much positive buzz from conservatives. They see it as a promising sign that 2013 will be a more promising year for
Sen. Marco Rubio
immigration reform
reform. Hes
than 2006 and 2007, which both began with high hopes that fizzled after a stalemate in Congress. Hes doing an awesome job of
bringing along conservatives and bringing along conservatives in the media, said Frank Sharry, the founder of Americas Voic e, which advocates for comprehensive
making enormous progress in making reform palatable to people on the right in a way that no one has before.
(--) Immigration reform will pass nowmomentum: Jennifer Martinez, 1/21/2013 (staff writer, Obama makes call for high-skilled
immigration reform in inaugural address, http://thehill.com/blogs/hilliconvalley/technology/278323-obama-makes-call-for-high-skilled-immigration-reform-ininaugural-address, Accessed 1/23/2013, rwg)
34

High-skilled immigration legislation has typically enjoyed bipartisan support, but past efforts to pass such measures have been tangled up in the larger immigration debate. The
momentum for passing a comprehensive immigration package has ramped
up after Obama received roughly 70 percent of the Hispanic vote during the 2012 election.
(--) Immigration reform will pass this year: Faiven Feshazion, 1/22/2013 (staff writer, Immigration reform isnt an if, but a
when,http://tv.msnbc.com/2013/01/22/immigration-reform-isnt-an-if-but-a-when/, Accessed 1/23/2013, rwg)
Along with public support for immigration reform, Rep. Becerra said that African-American members of Congress and the Latino members of Congress are supporting each other as well. Despite
the Neanderthal element in Congress that continues to hold us back, Rep. Becerra is optimistic. Its no longer a matter of if were going to have immigration reform its when, and I believe itll be this year.
(--) Immigration reform will pass nowcommon ground is being reached: Alexander Bolton, 1/20/2013 (staff writer, Sen. Rubio rallying conservatives behind
Grover Norquist, president of Americans for Tax Reform, who for years has hosted a weekly meeting of conservative activists leaders, called
Rubios plan a step in the right direction. Its a good sign for the prospect of moving immigration reform through the 113th Congress because liberal advocates also like the plan. I think its encouraging. Hes talking about the basic elements of reform shared by pro-reform Republicans and the vast majority of Democrats, Sharry said.
(--) Republicans want to pass immigration reform now: Alexander Bolton, 1/20/2013 (staff writer, Sen. Rubio rallying conservatives behind
Republicans on Capitol Hill are hungry to move immigration reform to boost their numbers with Hispanic voters, who are the fastest-growing major bloc of the national electorate. They see Rubio, a Cuban-American conservative with Tea-Party bona fides, as a natural person to lead them on the issue and provide political cover for their right flank. Republican senators appear poised to rally behind Rubios principles when they return to Capitol Hill next week.
(--) Immigration reform will pass nowstars are aligned: Cheyenne Hopkins, 1/20/2013 (staff writer, Plouffe Predicts Passage of Gun Control,
Immigration Measures, http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-01-20/plouffe-predictspassage-of-gun-control-immigration-measures.html, Accessed 1/20/2013, rwg) Plouffe said there is no reason that immigration reform shouldnt pass. Obviously the legislative process has to work its way through but this is the moment, Plouffe said. The stars
seem to be aligned to finally get comprehensive immigration reform .
(--) Comprehensive immigration reform will pass now: Jon Ward, 1/21/2013 (staff writer, Obama's Destiny As The Next JFK Faces SecondTerm Obstacles -- And Bill Clinton, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/01/21/obama-
35
Politics DA/Answers SUDI 2013 clinton-legacy_n_2498934.html?utm_hp_ref=the-road-forward, Accessed 1/23/2013, rwg)

Gibbs said he was confident that if Obama passed immigration reform, it would go a long way toward putting the new Democratic coalition on solid footing. "[Obama] has broadened the Democratic coalition politically more because of who he is. And I think quite frankly he'll cement even the broadening of the Democratic party in the next year or so by getting comprehensive immigration reform done, " Gibbs said.
(--) Immigration reform will pass now: David Lauter, 1/19/2013 (staff writer, Obama comes out swinging for second term,
http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/nation/la-na-adv-inaug-fever20130120,0,3781596,full.story, Accessed 1/19/2013, rwg)
On immigration, Obama plans to offer a proposal that would create a path to citizenship for most of the country's estimated 11 million illegal residents. The measure would go much further than immigration efforts that failed even to come to a vote in his first term. What may make passage possible, advocates argue, are Republican worries about the party's disastrous showing among Latino voters in the November election. Mitt Romney received only 27% of the Latino vote, burying his presidential hopes in several battleground states. Many Republican strategists insist the party needs to make concessions on immigration to win future elections.
(--) Immigration reform will pass now: Frank Sharry, 1/15/2013 (Founder and executive director, America's Voice,
Immigration Reform in 2013: An Idea Whose Time Has Come, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/frank-sharry/immigration-reform-2013_b_2443025.html, Accessed 1/23/2013, rwg)
So what
is likely to happen? A broad legislative proposal, one that puts 11 million undocumented immigrants on the road to citizenship, will be championed by the president, drafted on a bipartisan basis and approved by the Senate, with bipartisan support, sometime this spring. With comprehensive immigration reform
favored by the public by a 2-to-1 margin, a bipartisan breakthrough in the Senate could send those numbers as high as 3 to 1.
36
UQ: Obama has capital now

(--) Obamas political capital is high now Allows him to push some items but its finite LATimes, 2-12-13, [Obama to talk up 'common ground' in his State of the Union
address, http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-pn-obama-state-of-the-union-preview20130212,0,5764841.story]
WASHINGTON -- President Obama
plans to call for compromise in his State of the Union address Tuesday night as he invites Republicans to join him in a search for common ground -- and subtly dares them not to. The annual address -- the first of his second term -- comes as Obama faces a limited time of opportunity to pass legacy-making agenda items through a divided Congress while his political capital is still at its post-reelection high.
(--) Obama has the political upper hand now: Michael Scherer, 2/22/2013 (staff writer, Sequester Showdown,
http://swampland.time.com/2013/02/22/gaming-out-sequester-chicken/?iid=sl-mainmostpop1, Accessed 2/22/2013, rwg)
The White House walks into the sequester with an unmistakable advantage in the polls , and a conviction that it has the upper hand. Obamas approval is at three years highs, in the mid-50s, while House Republicans continue to tread water in the teens. His call for a combination of tax hikes and spending cuts to replace the sequester is favored
three to one over Republican calls to only have more cuts. (In a recent Pew Poll for USA Today, even a majority of Republicans favor a balanced approach.) By a margin of 49% to 31% in the Pew Poll, Americans are prepared to blame Congressional Republicans over President Obama if the sequester goes into effect. Perhaps most importantly, the public continues to believeby a margin of 49 to 44 in a recent Bloomberg pollthat Obamas plan for more short term investment in education, energy and infrastructure has a better chance of creating jobs than the Republican calls for more spending cuts and lower taxes. Advantage: Obama
(--) Despite large amounts of capital, Obama is holding back to focus on his current agenda The Atlantic, 2-12-13, [Obama's Agenda: Incremental Progress, not Sweeping
Initiatives, http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2013/02/obamas-agendaincremental-progress-not-sweeping-initiatives/273113/]
Rather than go big and bold, President Obama swagger and political
settled Tuesday night for incremental and pragmatic. For all his capital, the president subtly acknowledged the limits of what he can accomplish -even while promising in his State of the Union address to create "a rising, thriving middle class." His speech lacked the moon-shot vibe you'd expect from a president courting greatness. President Obama lays out his second-term vision for America. The agenda he discussed
Tuesday night was a mixture of old proposals and new ones fashioned on the cheap, bowing to the obstinacy of his GOP rivals and the brutal fiscal reality of the times. "Let me repeat -- nothing I'm proposing tonight should increase our deficit by a single dime," Obama told a joint session of Congress. "It's not a bigger government we need, but a smarter government that sets priorities and invests in broad-based growth."
Obama may suspect that that his legacy is already be added to it.
in place or
in motion , and that precious little can
(--) Obama has political capital high approval rating Avlon, 1/31/2013 (John, Immigration Reform Proposal Shows Similar Ideas
Betweeen Bush and Obama http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2013/01/31/immigration-reform-proposal-showssimilar-ideas-betweeen-bush-and-obama.html sjg
37
Politics DA/Answers SUDI 2013 Unlike Truman and George W. Bush, however, Obama is pushing for this bill at a time of maximum political capital and national popularity, with polls showing his approval rating at nearing 60 percent. To truly depolarize this policy debate, its tempting to imagine Obama enlisting President Bush to make the sale to the nation. But W. has made a determined effort to stay out of political and policy debates since leaving 1600.
The first post-election policy event of the Bush Center was a conference on immigration reform, in which the former president let himself wax poetic on his unfinished legacy: America can be a lawful society and a welcoming society at the same time, he said. As our nation debates the proper course of action relating to immigration, I hope we do so with a benevolent spirit and keep in mind the spirit of immi grants.
(--) Obama has a lot of political capital now: Chris Weigant, 1/23/2013 (staff writer, Handicapping Obama's Second Term
Of course, I could be wrong about any or all of these predictions. I have no special knowledge of how things will work out in Congress in the immediate future. I'm merely making educated guesses about what Obama will be able to achieve in at least the first few years of his second term.
Obama has a lot of political capital right now , but that could easily change soon. The House Republicans seem almost demoralized right now, and Obama has successfully splintered them and called their bluff on two big issues already -- but they could regroup and decide to block everything the White House wants,
and damn the political consequences. Unseen issues will pop up both on the domestic and foreign policy stages, as they always do. But, for now, this is my take on how the next few years are going to play out in Washington. Time will tell whether I've been too optimistic or too pessimistic on any or all of Obama's main agenda items. We'll just have to wait and see.
(--) Obama has capital now: Chris Weigant, 1/23/2013 (staff writer, Handicapping Obama's Second Term
Agenda, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/chris-weigant/obama-secondterm_b_2537802.html, Accessed 1/23/2013, rwg) There is reason for hope. Obama begins from a position of strength, politically . His job approval ratings have been consistently over 50 percent since he was re-elected -- a range Obama hasn't seen since 2009. As mentioned, the Republican presence in both houses of Congress has shrunk. More
importantly, though, the House Republicans are visibly chastened (or even "shaken") by the election's outcome.
38
UQ: Obama Pushing Immigration Reform Now

(--) Immigration reform is a top priority and Obama is pushing now: Dan Merica, 3/8/2013 (staff writer, Obama pushes expedited timetable on immigration
reform in meeting with faith leaders, http://religion.blogs.cnn.com/2013/03/08/obamapushes-expedited-timetable-on-immigration-reform-in-meeting-with-faith-leaders/, Accessed 3/8/2013, rwg)
Washington (CNN) President Barack Obama emphasized the need to get immigration reform accomplished this year in a meeting with a diverse group of faith leaders at the White House on Friday. Religious leaders that attended the meeting said the president spent more than an hour with them, and after making a few remarks at the top of the meeting he let each group discuss their priorities and problems with comprehensive immigration reform. During the discussion, these faith leaders said, Obama made it clear that he wanted to see
really sensed that this is a high priority for him, Jim Wallis, president of Sojourners, a Christian social justice group, told CNN. We are all looking at something being introduced this month and then the bill passing in May or June. We are all hoping that kind of time frame could work. Since winning reelection in 2012, the Obama administration has made it clear that immigration reform is a top priority for the presidents second term and something they want to see quick action on.
a bill on immigration reform in the next 60 days. I According to people who attended the meeting, in attendance, the president reiterated that support and laid out a timetable for the religious leaders.
(--) Obama is pushing Congress to pass immigration reform now: Phillip Kurata, 2/21/2013 (staff writer, Obama Administration Prods Congress on
Immigration Reform, http://thephilanews.com/obama-administration-prods-congress-onimmigration-reform-38033.htm, Accessed 2/21/2013, rwg)
The Obama administration is urging Congress to enact another set of immigration measures to encourage investors, entrepreneurs and people with advanced degrees in science, technology, engineering or math to settle in the United States.
(--) Obama is using political capital on immigration reform now: Tom Kludt, 1/3/2013 (staff writer, Report: Obama To Make Push For Immigration
Reform This Month, http://livewire.talkingpointsmemo.com/entry/report-obama-tomake-push-for-immigration-reform, Accessed 1/23/2013, rwg)
is prepared to use his political capital to pursue immigration reform this month, according to a report published Wednesday in the Huffington Post. The report cited an anonymous official in the Obama administration, who suggested that the president is unlikely to be deterred by the protracted fiscal cliff debate that will be revisited in the coming months. As such, the administration will reportedly move quickly on both immigration reform and gun control.
(--) Obamas priority is immigration reform there is emerging consensus, but its fragile The Malone Telegram 2/14/2013, Time To Rewrite Immigration Laws, The
Malone Telegram (New York), Lexis
The first Senate hearing on immigration policy this year pointed toward an emerging bipartisan consensus that the nation's 11 million illegal immigrants should be offered a path to citizenship. But passionate
divisions over the issue also surfaced as one Republican decried amnesty and shouting protesters interrupted the proceedings. "You really mean that we're not going to have enforcement, but we've got to have amnesty first," Sen. Jeff Sessions, a top Republican on the Senate Judiciary Committee, confronted the panel's chairman, Sen. Patrick Leahy, D-Vt. Leahy and Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano rejected the argument that border security must be the focus before a comprehensive immigration package or any pathway to legalization can be done. "Too often the border security refrain simply serves as an excuse," Napolitano said. "Our borders have in fact never been stronger." An
39

immigration overhaul is a priority for
President Barack
Obama and lawmakers after a brutal election in
which voters again elected a divided government. Democrats control the White House and the Senate, while Republicans hold the House majority. But for all of the division and polarization in Washington, the
hearing produced evidence of bipartisan agreement to fix what all agree is a broken system - and finally dispense with a wrenching issue that has bedeviled
lawmakers for years. Vargas' testimony produced a striking moment in which one of the 11 million illegal immigrants at the center of the debate confronted the elected officials reconsidering the law. A former journalist who acknowledged his illegal status in a high-profile piece in The New York Times Magazine in June 2011, Vargas recalled his journey to the U.S. from the Philippines in 1993. He told lawmakers that he never knew he was here illegally until he applied for a drivers' permit, and that he lived for years in fear until he decided to go public and start an advocacy group. He has so far avoided deportation. "Too often, we're treated as abstractions, faceless and nameless, mere subjects of debate rather than individuals with families, hopes, fears, and dreams," Vargas told committee members. "We dream of a path to citizenship so we can actively participate in our American democracy." Democrats on the panel offered praise and encouragement. Republicans had little response. For Vargas and others in his position the deliberations offered some encouraging signs mixed with unmistakable notes of caution. Leahy declared in opening the hearing, "In my view it is time to pass a good bill, a fair bill, a comprehensive bill ... Too many have been waiting too long for fairness." Sen. John Cornyn, R-Texas, said the focus must be border security. "I do not believe the border is secure and I still believe we have a long, long way to go," he said. Protesters interrupted the hearing several times, with some shouting and waving banners against deportations, which have increased markedly under the Obama administration despite its push to find a political accommodation for many who have been living in the U.S. Later people in another group stood and silently turned their backs to the dais where the senators sat. They wore signs on their backs reading "human rights" and "immigrant rights." Leahy chided them for interrupting proceedings. Obama says he is
determined to finally make good on his promise to the Latino community to sign into law a comprehensive immigration bill with border security, employer enforcement, improvements to legal immigration and a path to citizenship for illegal immigrants already here. Meanwhile, a bipartisan group of eight senators has been meeting to develop a bill by next
month that accomplishes eventual citizenship for illegal immigrants while also containing enough border security and enforcement measures to gain conservative support. The four Democrats in the Senate negotiating group met with Obama at the White House on Wednesday, telling him
they were confident a bipartisan bill could be agreed to "in the coming weeks," a senior Democrat said later,
speaking on condition of anonymity because the meeting was private. A White House statement said Obama reiterated his intention to offer legislation of his own if Congress fails to act, and told senators that continuing to strengthen the border should not be mutually exclusive from a pathway to citizenship. The Senate bipartisan plan makes a pathway to citizenship conditional on border security first, something on which Republicans have insisted. Obama's immigration proposals don't make that linkage, and it's emerging as a point of contention.
(--) Obama pushing immigration reform now: Chris Johnson, 1/23/2013 (staff writer, Will Obama include gay couples in
immigration reform? http://www.washingtonblade.com/2013/01/23/will-obama-includegay-couples-in-immigration-reform/, Accessed 1/23/2013, rwg)
Obama emphasized that he would pursue comprehensive immigration reform last month during an interview on NBCs Meet the Press, saying, Ive said that fixing our broken immigration system is a top priority. I will introduce legislation in the first year to get that done.
(--) Obama is focused on immigration reform now: PAT SCHNEIDER, 1/23/2013 (staff writer, Poll says Americans want U.S. to find a
way for immigrants to stay legally, http://host.madison.com/ct/news/local/writers/pat_schneider/poll-says-americans-want-us-to-find-a-way/article_da6d57dc-65ad-11e2-b987-001a4bcf887a.html, Accessed 1/23/2013, rwg)
Reform is a priority for President Obama, who said in his inaugural address Monday that "our journey is not complete until we find a better way to welcome the striving, hopeful immigrants who still see America as a land of opportunity; until bright young students and engineers are enlisted in our workforce rather than
expelled from our country." And a CNN public opinion poll released the day after Obamas remarks shows that a majority of Americans, 53 percent, think the federal government should focus on developing a plan that would allow undocumented immigrants to become legal residents. Thats a change from just a year ago, when a majority of Americans said deporting undocumented immigrants and stopping more o f them from entering the country should be the main focus of U.S. policy. Obamas
focus on immigration reform , and
indicators of public support, were welcomed by activists at Voces de la Frontera, a Milwuakee-based advocacy group.
40
(--) Obama is serious about his push for immigration reformpromise isnt an empty one: AS COA Online, 1/11/2013 (New waiver shows immigration reform remains top
priority for Obama, http://www.voxxi.com/new-waiver-immigration-reform-obama/, Accessed 1/24/2013, rwg)
As with DACA, the new family unity rule may also ratchet up the political machinery around immigration reform. DACA helped cement Latinos overwhelming support (71 percent) for the president in the general election, compelling Republicans to star t changing their tune on the
promised swift action early in his new term. While other pressing policy issues have grabbed the headlines, the DHS rule is a nod to the Latino and overall immigrant communities, showing the administrations promise to push for immigration reform is not an empty one. The timeline for introducing legislation is likely to just now be pushed from January
need for reforming the U.S. immigration system. One result is that President Barack Obama or February to March or April.
(--) Obama will make a strong push for immigration reform this term: Elise Foley, 1/15/2013 (staff writer, Obama Gears Up For Immigration Reform Push
In Second Term, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/01/15/obama-immigrationreform_n_2463388.html, Accessed 1/23/2013, rwg)
As of Monday, Obama
will have four more years to reshape his immigration legacy. And there's every indication that he wants it to be different. He doesn't want the dubious distinction of being "deporter-in-chief" -- especially since he was elected and reelected as the avatar of an ever more diverse America. Nor does he merely
want to be the author of a patchwork, watered-down reprieve for young undocumented immigrants -- a program that could be ended any time by a successor. Obama
and his aides insist that he is determined in the second term to find a permanent legislative solution for a much bigger category and a much bigger number: the 11 million undocumented immigrants in America today who, if Obama can convince Congress to go along, could gain a path to
citizenship.
(--) Obama is pushing for comprehensive immigration reform: Elise Foley, 1/15/2013 (staff writer, Obama Gears Up For Immigration Reform Push
In a briefing with The Huffington Post, a senior administration official said the
White House believes it has met enforcement goals and must now move to a comprehensive solution. The administration is highly skeptical of claims from Republicans that immigration reform can or should be done in a piecemeal fashion. Going down that road, the White House worries, could result in passage of the less politically complicated pieces, such as an
enforcement mechanism and high-skilled worker visas, while leaving out more contentious items such as a pathway to citizenship for undocumented immigrants.
41
UQ: Top of the Docket

(--) Immigration reform is top of the docket: Frank Sharry, 1/15/2013 (Founder and executive director, America's Voice,
Immigration Reform in 2013: An Idea Whose Time Has Come, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/frank-sharry/immigration-reform-2013_b_2443025.html, Accessed 1/23/2013, rwg)
What does this mean for 2013 and 2014? It means that the president will make immigration reform his top post-fiscal-cliff legislative priority . Democrats are more united than ever on immigration and are determined to make Republicans play or pay. Meanwhile, movement conservatives and Republican leaders alike
are seeing the demographic writing on the wall and calling for the GOP to embrace immigration reform. They know that the party faces an existential crisis: The GOP has to regain its competitiveness with Hispanic voters or go the way of the Whigs.
(--) Inaugural address provesimmigration is a top priority: Emi Kolawole, 1/22/2013 (staff writer, Skilled immigration reform and STEM
education advocates get spotlight in inaugural address, http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/innovations/post/skilled-immigration-reform-andstem-education-advocates-get-spotlight-in-inaugural-address/2013/01/22/5e9b3fc2-64d411e2-85f5-a8a9228e55e7_blog.html, Accessed 1/23/2013, rwg)
Obamas remarks in his second and final inaugural address, were, as others have mentioned, a clearly broadcast signal of his position on a range of issues, including climate change, renewable energy, and entitlement programs. But for advocates who have long called for greater emphasis on science, technology, engineering and math education and a growing community that wants change to the nations immigration laws , particularly for skilled immigrants, the president sent an even clearer signal.
(--) Immigration a top priority for the second term: Jennifer Martinez, 1/21/2013 (staff writer, Obama makes call for high-skilled
immigration reform in inaugural address, http://thehill.com/blogs/hilliconvalley/technology/278323-obama-makes-call-for-high-skilled-immigration-reform-ininaugural-address, Accessed 1/23/2013, rwg)
Obama has made clear that passing comprehensive immigration legislation will be a policy priority during his second term. It's expected that a measure aimed at boosting the number of visas available to foreign-born graduates of U.S. universities with master's degrees and Ph.D.s in engineering, math and science fields will be included in forthcoming immigration legislation.
42
(--) Immigration is coming before guns and fiscal policy: Dan Moffett, 1/21/2013 (staff writer, Obama's Inauguration Begins Push For
Comprehensive Reform Bill, http://immigration.about.com/b/2013/01/21/obamainauguration-begins-push-for-comprehensive-reform.htm, Accessed 1/24/2013, rwg) "Immigration is our No. 1 item," Reid said. "It's going to be the first thing on our agenda." It's a
significant assessment, considering the White House push to get gun control measures passed and all the looming fights with Republicans over fiscal matters.
(--) Immigration reform at the top of the docket: Arturo Lopez-Levy, 11/24/2012 (staff writer, The Latin American Gorilla,
http://www.theepochtimes.com/n2/opinion/the-latin-american-gorilla-318169.html, Accessed 1/23/2013, rwg)
The Democrats cannot take the Latino vote for granted. Before this past summer, when the president signed the
executive order authorizing temporary residence for more than 1 million young immigrants, Obamas approval rating among Latin os had fallen significantly to below 50 percent. Accordingly,
immigration reform is now at the top of the national agenda .
(--) Immigration reform top priority for Obama: AS COA Online, 1/11/2013 (New waiver shows immigration reform remains top
priority for Obama, http://www.voxxi.com/new-waiver-immigration-reform-obama/, Accessed 1/24/2013, rwg)
Washington is abuzz with discussions around fiscal cliff deadlines and gun law reform, but a
new rule proves the Obama administration will not let immigration reform slide to the backburner. As he did throughout the 2012 campaign, the president has called immigration reform a top priority, and on January 2, the U.S.
Department of Homeland Security (DHS) published a rule that will keep more families together while showing the executive branch will not stand idly by as immigration reform discussions advance slowly in Congress.
(--) Obama will push for immigration reform quickly: Julia Preston, 1/12/2013 (staff writer, Obama Will Seek Citizenship Path in One Fast
Push, http://www.nytimes.com/2013/01/13/us/politics/obama-plans-to-push-congresson-immigration-overhaul.html?_r=0, Accessed 1/24/2013, rwg)
Obama plans to push Congress to move quickly in the coming months on an ambitious overhaul of the immigration system that would include a path to citizenship for most of the
WASHINGTON President 11 million illegal immigrants in the country, senior administration officials and lawmakers said last week.
43
UQ: Obama working with Congress Now

(--) Obama has reached out to Republican Senatorsprefer our evidence it was a response to the argument that Obama wasnt reaching out: Stephanie Condon, 2/19/2013 (staff writer, After tiff, Obama calls GOP senators to
talk immigration, http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-250_162-57570174/after-tiff-obamacalls-gop-senators-to-talk-immigration/, Accessed 2/21/2013, rwg)
After a public squabble over whether President Obama was in communication with Congress on immigration reform, Mr. Obama today called three key Republican senators to discuss the matter. Mr. Obama called Sens. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C.; John McCain, R-Ariz.; and Marco Rubio, R-Fla., the White House said in a statement, "to discuss their shared commitment to bipartisan, commonsense immigration reform and to commend the
Senators for the bipartisan progress that continues to be made by the Gang of 8 on this important issue." Graham, McCain and Rubio are three of the four Republican senators working with four Democratic senators to craft immigration reform legislation. Mr. Obama did not speak to the fourth Republican, Sen. Jeff Flake, R-Ariz., because he is traveling today, but the White House said the president looks forward to speaking with him in the near future. The
White House said the president's phone calls today "build on conversations that have taken place at the staff level."
(--) Obama pushing immigration reform nowworking with specific members of Congress: Daniel Strauss, 2/19/2013 (staff writer, Obama 'commends' GOP senators on
immigration reform, http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/283857-obamaphones-gang-of-eight-republicans, Accessed 2/21/2013, rwg)
President Obama
reached out on Tuesday to the Republican members of the bipartisan group of senators that crafted a framework for passing immigration reform. Obama called Sens. John McCain (R-Ariz.),
Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) and Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) to discuss progress on passing immigration reform. The three senators are part of the socalled Gang of Eight, which unveiled a framework for passing immigration reform in late January. Obama recently sat down with the Democratic members of the group to discuss progress on passing immigration reform. "This
afternoon, the President placed calls to Sen. Graham, Sen. McCain, and Sen. Rubio to discuss their shared commitment to bipartisan, commonsense immigration reform and to commend the Senators for the bipartisan progress that continues to be
made by the Gang of Eight on this important issue," a statement from the White House said.
Obama reaching out to the GOP on immigration reform now: Reuters, 2/20/2013 (Obama says Immigration leak won't hurt reform talks,
Seeking to ease tensions with Republicans, Obama on Tuesday reached out directly to three U.S. senators - Marco Rubio, John McCain and Lindsey Graham part of a "Gang of Eight" Republicans and Democrats working on an immigration deal. The White House, meanwhile, denied it had intentionally leaked its own "Plan B" for
revamping U.S. immigration laws.
44
UQ: AT: Obama Supports His Own Bill

(--) Obama pushing the Congressional plan nownot his own bill: Jake Miller, 2/17/2013 (staff writer, GOP: Leaked WH immigration plan
"counterproductive", http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-250_162-57569812/gop-leakedwh-immigration-plan-counterproductive/, Accessed 2/21/2013, rwg)
A draft of a comprehensive White House immigration proposal was obtained yesterday by USA Today,
and one key Republican senator immediately deemed the president's plan "dead on arrival." Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Fla., a Hispanic lawmaker involved with a bipartisan group of senators crafting a compromise proposal, said it was a "mistake for the White House to draft immigration legislation without seeking input from Republican members of Congress," calling the proposal "half baked and seriously flawed," and declaring, "If actually proposed, the president's bill would be dead on arrival in Congress." White House sources tell CBS News Senior White House Correspondent Bill Plante that this was not a planned leak. The
sources add that the big concern is that the leak makes it appear that they are trying to get ahead of the Senate negotiations. They say that's not the case the Senate process is going well and the White House is very much focused on supporting it .
(--) Obama supporting the Congressional legislation now: Daniel Strauss, 2/19/2013 (staff writer, Obama 'commends' GOP senators on
immigration reform, http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/283857-obamaphones-gang-of-eight-republicans, Accessed 2/21/2013, rwg)
On Saturday, Rubio criticized the Obama administration after USA Today published leaked details of the administration's proposal for an immigration reform law. Obama has said he would push his own immigration plan if Congress cannot come to an agreement on comprehensive immigration reform. "As
the President made clear when he met with Democratic Senators involved in the process last week, that while he is pleased with the progress and supportive of the effort to date , he is prepared to submit his own legislation if Congress fails to act," the White House statement continued. "He thanked the senators for their leadership, and made clear that he and his staff look forward to continuing to work together with their teams to achieve needed reform."
(--) Obama supporting the gang of eight bill now: Agence France-Presse, 2/17/2013 (White House defends immigration reform
proposal, http://www.rawstory.com/rs/2013/02/17/white-house-defends-immigrationreform-proposal/, Accessed 2/21/2013, rwg)
In his State of the Union address on Tuesday, Obama
urged Congress to pass comprehensive immigration reform in the next few months. And eight senators four of Obamas Democratic allies and four Republicans unveiled a joint plan last month aiming to provide a legal status to illegal immigrants living on US soil. White House chief of staff Denis McDonough insisted on Sunday that the administration was working intensely with the so-called gang of eight, including Rubio. And were going to continue to work with Senator Rubio and others on this,
McDonough said, in an interview with ABC News.
45
UQ: AT: Leak of White House Bill Undermines Passage

Leak of White House bill wont hurt the negotiationsimmigration reform still moving forward: Jean-Paul Salamanca, 2/21/2013 (staff writer, Immigration Reform 2013: Obama
Speaks On Leaked Bill; Senators Debate Federal ID Card For All Workers, http://www.latinospost.com/articles/12667/ 20130221/immigration-reform-2013-obamaspeaks-leaked-bill.htm, Accessed 2/21/2013, rwg)
Despite the leak of part of his immigration proposal in the press earlier this week, President Obama remains confident that the news of the bill drafted by the White House won't hurt the ongoing negotiations in Congress geared towards reforming the immigration system. As Reuters reports, President Obama downplayed the
significance of the leak on the ongoing negotiations on immigration reform to San Antonio's KWEX television station, an affiliate of the Spanishlanguage network Univision, in an interview at the White House. "It
certainly didn't jeopardize the entire process. The
negotiations are still moving forward,"

Washington.
President Obama said, dismissing such news leaks as a common occurrence in
Immigration reform will pass now: Reuters, 2/20/2013 (Obama says Immigration leak won't hurt reform talks,
Obama denied on Wednesday that the leak of a backup immigration bill being drafted by the White House would hurt Senate negotiations on immigration reform and he confidently predicted Congress would pass legislation. Republicans involved in a bipartisan Senate group working on an immigration
(Reuters) - President Barack overhaul package responded with criticism when details of the administration's plan surfaced in weekend news reports, despite Obama's promise to withhold his legislative proposals while lawmakers crafted their own. "It
certainly didn't jeopardize the entire process. The negotiations are still moving forward," Obama told San Antonio's KWEX television station, an affiliate of the Spanish-language network Univision, in an interview at the White House. He dismissed such news leaks as a common occurrence in Washington.
46
White House is pushing the Congressional billwill only go with its bill if Congress bill breaks down: Jake Miller, 2/17/2013 (staff writer, GOP: Leaked WH immigration plan
The White House has defended the leaked proposal, saying it is an incomplete draft that is only being crafted as a fallback option in case the bipartisan talks in Congress "break down." "We will be
prepared with our own plan" if congressional action on the issue stalls, White House Chief of Staff Denis McDonough said today on "Face the Nation." "There's no evidence that [the group's efforts] have broken down yet," he added. "We're continuing to support that; we're involved in those efforts by providing them technical assistance, providing them ideas. And I hope Republicans and Democrats up there don't get involved in some typical Washington back and forth sideshow here."
47
UQ: AT: Obama Will Do Immigration Reform By Executive Order

(--) Obamas already done all he can do via executive order, immigration reform needs to be done through Congress: Mike Lillis, 2/16/2013 (staff writer, Dems: Obama can act unilaterally on immigration
Not all immigration-reform supporters think Obama has so much space to move on immigration without Congress. Rep. Henry Cuellar (Texas), vice-chairman of the Democratic Steering and Policy Committee, said the president has some license to make border security moves and spending decisions. "But pretty much he's done what he can do right now ," Cuellar said Friday, "and after that it's up to Congress to address the rest of the issues."
(--) Comprehensive immigration reform can only be done by Congress: Jason Marczak, 1/11/2013 (director of Policy at Americas Society/Council of the
Americas, New waiver shows immigration reform remains top priority for Obama, http://www.voxxi.com/new-waiver-immigration-reform-obama/, Accessed 1/24/2013, rwg)
The new rule also serves as a reminder to Congress that in the face of continued impasse, the
White House will use executive authority to make whatever tweaks it can to improve the U.S. immigration system. Of course, comprehensive , long-term changes can only be made by Congress . But short-term, piecemeal modifications are
increasingly a favored Obama tool to get around the divisions on Capitol Hill.
(--) Executive order approach has limits: Mike Lillis, 2/16/2013 (staff writer, Dems: Obama can act unilaterally on immigration
Rep. Joseph Crowley (N.Y.), vice chairman of the Democratic Caucus, echoed that message, saying Obama is "not just beating the drum," for
are limitations as to what he can do with executive order," Crowley said Wednesday, "but he did say that if Congress continued to fail to act that he would take steps and measures to enact common-sense executive orders to move this country forward."
immigration reform, "he's actually the drum major." "There
(--) Comprehensive immigration reform limited by Congress ability to put a bill on Obamas desk: Christian Science Monitor, 9/7/2012 (Obama vs. Romney 101: 5 ways they differ
on immigration, http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/DC-Decoder/2012/0907/Obama-vs.Romney-101-5-ways-they-differ-on-immigration/Comprehensive-immigration-reform, Accessed 1/24/2013, rwg)
1. Comprehensive immigration reform Obama
says his support for comprehensive immigration reform has been limited only by Congress's inability to put a bill on his desk . In 2007, then-Senator Obama voted for the comprehensive immigration bill backed by Sen. Edward Kennedy (D) of Massachusetts, Sen. John McCain
(R) of Arizona, and President Bush. The bill never reached the floor for a vote, but it would have provided a path to citizenship for 12 million to 20 million illegal immigrants, established a two-year guest-worker program, added 20,000 border patrol agents, built 370 miles of border fencing, and revamped the federal employment-verification system.
48
UQ: AT: Obama Will Push for Piecemeal Bill (--) Obama will push for comprehensive immigration reformnot piecemeal measures: Elise Foley, 1/15/2013 (staff writer, Obama Gears Up For Immigration Reform Push
The State of the Union address will be important to beginning that argument. White House spokesman Jay Carney said last week that
immigration reform would likely be mentioned in Obama's speech. It wouldn't be a surprise: His past two State of
the Union speeches mentioned the need for immigration reform, particularly on the high-skilled side and in aid for Dreamers, undocumented young people who would be helped by the Dream Act and reform. The references to immigration in both speeches were roughly the same -down to the line -- and, as is typical for State of the Union speeches, didn't go into much policy detail. That speech this year may not have much detail either. But it
will be an important first statement of Obama's intention to do something on immigration quickly, and in one piece. Even though previous discussions have focused on comprehensive immigration reform, many Republican lawmakers want it to be done piece by piece. Administration officials don't think that would work, and neither does the president, who has repeatedly said it needs to be done in full.
(--) Obama will push for comprehensive immigration reform: Julia Preston, 1/12/2013 (staff writer, Obama Will Seek Citizenship Path in One Fast
Obama and Senate Democrats will propose the changes in one comprehensive bill , the officials said, resisting efforts by some Republicans to break the overhaul into smaller pieces separately addressing
Mr. young illegal immigrants, migrant farmworkers or highly skilled foreigners which might be easier for reluctant members of their party to accept.
49
UQ: AT: Citizenship Blocks Passage (--) Anti-amnesty movement has weakened: Daniel Gonzlez, 3/7/2013 (staff writer, Foes of amnesty mobilizing to help defeat
immigration reform, http://www.azcentral.com/news/politics/articles/20130305amnestyfoes-mobilizing-flood-congress.html, Accessed 3/8/2013, rwg)
Childress and others who oppose any form of legalization for undocumented immigrants acknowledge that, so far, the issue hasnt generated as much heat as it did in 2006 and 2007, even
though Obama has made immigration reform a top priority this year and a bipartisan group of lawmakers is moving fast to get a bill passed as quickly as possible, perhaps this summer. I know that, in the end, Americans
am trying to light a fire here and get the passions burning again, and I will melt down the phone lines in Washington against amnesty, Childress said. We are not there yet . They blame fatigue for sucking some of the life out of the antiamnesty movement. Opponents also say there is a feeling that passage of an immigration-reform bill may now be inevitable given the renewed push by key Republicans to pass immigration reforms to attract increasingly influential Latino voters following the drubbing GOP nominee Mitt Romney received from them in November. It is tiring. There may be a sense that people are a little worn out, said Roy Beck, executive director of
NumbersUSA. The Washington, D.C., group advocates for restrictions on immigration and has organized campaigns in the past urging its members to call, fax or e-mail lawmakers to oppose immigration reform.
(--) Influence of anti-amnesty groups will be weaker: Daniel Gonzlez, 3/7/2013 (staff writer, Foes of amnesty mobilizing to help defeat
immigration reform, http://www.azcentral.com/news/politics/articles/20130305amnestyfoes-mobilizing-flood-congress.html, Accessed 3/8/2013, rwg)
Frank Sharry,
executive director of Americas Voice, a Washington, D.C., group that advocates for comprehensive think opposition will be as strong this time because the influence of antiamnesty groups has been diminished by the November election, when Obama swept more than 70 percent of the
immigration reform, doesnt Latino vote. Romney campaigned on a strident, anti-immigrant message, saying he favored self-deportation and was opposed to letting illegal immigrants gain legal status. Youll
see strong opposition, but I dont think it will be anywhere near the kind of volume or visibility of 2006 and 2007, in large part because I think Republicans have realized that by branding themselves as anti-Latino, it hasnt been very good for them electorally,
Sharry said.
(--) Citizenship Wont hold-up passage Sargent 2/4/2013 (Greg, How House Republicans can kill immigration reform,
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/wp/2013/02/04/how-house-republicanscan-kill-immigration-reform/, CMR)
could survive even if House Republicans dont allow a path to citizenship to be included in the initial House compromise. If the Senate passes its compromise by wide bipartisan margins, the pressure on House Republicans to allow a vote on it will be extremely intense , and it could pass mostly with Dem support (which is how the fiscal cliff deal was resolved). But it would be far better if the emerging
To be sure, immigration reform House compromise does contain a path to citizenship. If it doesnt, it will be yet another sign of just how hostile House Rep ublicans are to genuine immigration reform and how hard it will be to achieve.
(--) GOP will eventually cave on citizenship in the status quo Narayanswamy 2/13/2013, Anupama, Projects Editor for Real Time Investigations, a
Sunlight Foundation Project, former researcher with the Center for public Integrity; Key players in immigration debate have support of special interests, Sunlight Foundation, http://reporting.sunlightfoundation.com/2013/immigration-reform/ 50

On the Republican side, gang-of-eighters Jeff Flake, R-Ariz. and Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., each
worked on immigration reform bills in the past. Despite indication from Republican rank and file that any provision to grant citizenship to undocumented people will not see the light of day, the pair, joined by Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., have indicated they believe the GOP is warming up to the idea and will come around. McCain received $17 million from the sectors most likely to be involved in the immigration talks, although a vast majority of
the money came when he was running for President in 2008. Flake has received more than $1.2 million over the years from the industry and Graham received $2.36 million.
(--) Republicans willing to agree on the pathway to citizenship: Daniel Strauss, 1/18/2013 (staff writer, Reid: No immigration reform bill will pass
Senate without pathway to citizenship, http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefingroom/news/278033-reid-no-immigration-reform-bill-will-pass-senate-without-pathwayto-citizenship, Accessed 1/23/2013, rwg)
Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.), considered a party leader on immigration reform and a top contender for the Republican nomination for president
a blueprint for an immigration reform bill that included a pathway to citizenship for immigrants living in the country illegally. Rep. Paul Ryan, who ran as the 2012 Republican presidential nominee, quickly threw his support behind the outline.
in 2016, outlined
(--) Republicans increasingly agree on pathway to citizenship: Challen Stephens, 1/23/2013 (staff writer, Illegal immigration: Most Republicans now
favor pathway to citizenship, http://blog.al.com/wire/2013/01/illegal_ immigration_most_repub.html, Accessed 1/23/2013, rwg)
An Associated Press poll announced this week finds that the largest shift in views has been inside the Republican Party itself. The
Associated Press poll found 52 percent of Republicans now favor creating a path to citizenship for illegal immigrants. Thats up 22 percentage points since 2010, explaining much of the nationwide increase in support.
51
UQ: AT: Gay Rights Undermines Passage

(--) LGBTQ benefits wont derail the process GOP interests in courting Latino votes outweigh their opposition Kelly 2/8/2013 (Erin Kelly, Gannett Washington Bureau, Gay rights becoming
controversy in immigration reform, USA Today, 2/8/13, http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2013/02/08/gay-rights-immigrationreform/1903119/)
the same-sex partner issue will spark controversy but does not believe it will derail immigration reform. "I'm sure it will be the subject of a huge amendment fight when an immigration reform bill comes to the Senate floor," said Sharry, who supports the same-sex partner provision. "But I think it will ultimately survive. I don't think it will be a dealbreaker." Sharry said Republicans are anxious to court Latinos, who are the fastest growing ethnic group in America.
Frank Sharry, a longtime immigrant rights' advocate and executive director of America's Voice, acknowledged that Latino voters overwhelming supported Obama and Democratic congressional candidates in last fall's election, in part because of Republican opposition to any immigration reform that would offer illegal immigrants a chance to earn their way to legal status and citizenship. "Republicans said. "That's
are trying to save themselves from certain electoral doom by reaching out to Latino voters," Sharry a much bigger concern for them than a same-sex partner provision. It may bring some howls of protest, but I'm optimistic it won't bring down the reform process." Gay rights' activists agree. "I think the country has changed and has come a long way on both the issue of gay marriage and the issue of immigration reform," said Felipe Sousa-Rodriguez, a Tampa, Fla., resident and national field director for
GetEQUAL, a gay rights' group. "If we're really going to fix our broken immigration system, we can't leave anyone out. We need to fix it for everyone."
52
UQ: AT: Border Security Conditions

(--) Border security wont hold-up reform Obama fighting off objections Reuters 2/5/2013 (House Republicans try to chip away at immigration reform,
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/02/06/us-usa-immigrationidUSBRE9130V620130206, CMR)
But immigration reform activists
asked Obama at a White House meeting to stick to his position that 11 million people should not have to wait until the border is declared secure. "It can't be a trigger that keeps moving the goal posts and is indefinable. So it has to be meaningful, real and tangible for us to accept it," said Janet Murguia, president of the Hispanic group National Council of La Raza. The Obama administration points to a steep drop in illegal immigration from Mexico in recent years and the deployment of thousands of Border Patrol officers as evidence that the border is more secure. Spokesman Jay Carney said the White House had already met many of the Republican criteria for border security. "Close to all of those goals, if not all of those goals, have been met
commitment to enhanced border security," he said. Congressional because of the president's
Republicans have become more willing to work on an immigration reform after Hispanics delivered a clear message in the 2012 election. Seventy-one
percent of Latinos voted for Obama, compared to 27 percent for his Republican rival Mitt Romney.
53
UQ: House Will Pass Immigration Reform

(--) The House will follow the Senates lead even McCain thinks so Strauss 2/8/13 (Daniel Strauss, The Hill, McCain 'cautiously optimistic' House would
follow Senate on immigration, http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefingroom/news/282055-mccain-cautiously-optimistic-house-would-follow-senate-onimmigration)
McCain (R-Ariz.) is "cautiously optimistic" that if President Obama and the Senate can agree on an immigration reform plan, legislators in the House will follow suit. McCain, in an interview with Univision set to air on Sunday, was asked
Sen. John what would happen if House Republicans voted against immigration reform. "Well, I hate to obviously predict what might happen," McCain, a member of a bipartisan group of senators in the
McCain added that he is "cautiously optimistic that with the President and the Senate basically acting together that that would be sufficient to have the House, to
Senate that unveiled a framework for passing immigration reform, said. agree with that, if its reasonable with the majority of the American people." But McCain cautioned that the consequences of the House reje cting an immigration-reform plan are hard to imagine. "So its hard for me to predict," McCain continued. "But I think you, I know what youre referring to, and that is the election results with a smaller number of our Hispanic/Latino citizens that are voting for Republicans. We understand that." Both Republicans and Democrats have expressed interest in passing immigration reform. A major sticking points in negotiations so far, however, has been whether to include a pathway to citizenship for immigrants living in the country illegally. The immigration framework crafted by McCain and seven other senators includes a pathway to citizenship as long as border security is first strengthened. McCain said he is not sure whether there will be enough votes in the Senate to pass a reform plan that includes a pathway to citizenship. "You know, I dont know yet, because we havent finished the package. I know that the attitude of the American people is that," McCain said. "And I think that theres a realization on my side of the aisle that we need to have this resolved. And that people should have a pathway to citizenship. But look, Ive lost before and so for me to predict would be premature. But I do think that the attitude overall of the American people and members of the Senate is significantly improved to the point where I am cautiously optimistic." Also on Friday,
Rep. Xavier Becerra (D-Calif.) said a secretive bipartisan group of House members is close to unveiling an immigration reform agreement. Becerra has reportedly participated in the groups negotiations. "The reality is that we are on the cusp of actually having an opportunity to put forward a bipartisan proposal in the House of Representatives," Becerra said.
54
UQ: AT: Thumpers

Top priority bipartisan support makes passage likely Lillis 2/5 (Mike, Hoyer favors Obama's immigration plan over Senate's,
http://thehill.com/homenews/house/281209-hoyer-favors-obamas-immigration-plan-oversenates#ixzz2K9CilmFm, CMR)
Hoyer's position aligns him with President Obama as lawmakers
tread carefully into the immigration-reform debate that's sure to consume a great deal of Capitol Hill's political oxygen this year. "It's somewhat a subject[ive]
judgment whether the borders are secure or not secure," Hoyer told reporters in the Capitol. "Nobody believes that the borders in a democratic, open country are ever going to be totally non-porous. "I think the two [citizenship and security] are related," he added, "but ought not to be contingent upon the other." Often a third rail in Washington, the issue of immigration reform has
moved near the top of
Congress's priority list
this year largely as a result of November's elections, in which more than 70 percent of Hispanic voters chose
Obama over GOP contender Mitt Romney. Hoping to undercut that trend, Republicans long opposed to comprehensive reform, particularly so-called "amnesty" provisions that would carve a pathway to citizenship for the nation's estimated 11 million illegal immigrants
much more open to an overhaul since the election. Last week, a bipartisan group of influential senators unveiled a sweeping package that would bolster border security and guest worker programs both desired by Republicans
have appeared while creating a pathway to citizenship for those living in the country illegally, a demand from the Democrats. The Senate's plan would make the citizenship benefits contingent upon securing the b order" a step Obama rejected when he outlined a similar plan a few days later. The House Judiciary Committee held its first hearing on the thorny subject Tuesday, with the Senate vowing to follow later this month. Hoyer said Tuesday that he's hopeful Congress will send a comprehensive reform bill to Obama this year. "The Democrats
want to see a comprehensive immigration bill, [and] I think the Republicans, frankly, think they need to be supportive of a comprehensive immigration bill," he said. "So combine the wants and the needs [and] I think there are good prospects ."
(--) Other parts of State of Union not squeezing out immigration reform: Korn 2/13/2013, Morgan, Pres. Obama: The Time Has Come to Pass Comprehensive
Immigration Reform, The Daily Ticker
laid out his ambitious agenda for the next four years Tuesday night, calling on Congress to raise the minimum wage, reform the nations tax code, tackle climate change and gun control and submit a
budget proposal that responsibly addresses the nations fiscal situation. Whether or not these initiatives become law depends on whether Obama can convince Republicans to follow his economic and social policy roadmap. The
president may have an easier job of building support for his plan to overhaul the countrys immigration laws. Republicans applauded loudly as Obama delivered his remarks on immigration during the State of the Union address. Our economy is stronger when
we harness the talents and ingenuity of striving, hopeful immigrants, Obama said. And right now, leaders from the business, labor, law enforcement, and faith communities all agree that the time has come to pass comprehensive immigration reform. Obama
showed his commitment to comprehensive immigration reform last night, says Edward Alden, a senior fellow at the Council of Foreign Relations and author of The Closing of the American Border: Terrorism, Immigration, and Security Since 9/11. The president will push Congress to draft new immigration laws by this Spring, says Alden. Last Novembers presidential election
could be the reason why Republicans have had a change of heart when it comes to immigration. Seventy-one percent of Latinos supported President Obama over Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney. Republicans were chastened by their losses in November and how poorly they did among Hispanic voters, Alden notes. There
is a desire on both sides of the isle to move forward with this. The Republicans recent attitude shift toward immigration reform has made Alden optimistic that a deal will get done. But he argues that lawmakers need to change their approach to immigration reform. Focusing the nations
resources on securing the U.S.-Mexico border should not be the center of new immigration policy, Alden says.
55
UQ: AT: Obama Will Delegate-Wont Lead on Immigration Reform (--) Obama will lead on the issue of immigration reform: Elise Foley, 1/15/2013 (staff writer, Obama Gears Up For Immigration Reform Push
It's still unclear what exact role the president will play, but sources say he does plan to lead on the issue. Rep. Zoe Lofgren (D-Calif.), the top Democrat on the House immigration subcommittee, said the White House seems sensitive to the fact that Republicans and Democrats need to work out the issue in Congress -- no one is expecting a fiscal cliff-style arrangement jammed by leadership -while keeping the president heavily involved.
(--) Obama is taking the lead on immigration reform now past examples are irrelevant: Jean-Paul Salamanca, 1/22/2013 (staff writer, Immigration Reform Obama 2013,
http://www.latinospost.com/articles/10158/20130122/immigration-reform-obama-2013inauguration-speech-hints.htm, Accessed 1/23/2013, rwg)
President Barack Obama's
language during his inauguration speech gave the U.S. a glimpse of his
apparent intentions to move forward on long-awaited reforms to the country's immigration system. "Our journey is not complete until we find a better way to welcome the striving, hopeful immigrants who still see America as a land
of opportunity; until bright young students and engineers are enlisted in our workforce rather than expelled from our country," Obama said during his speech. Obama
rode into office in January 2009 with immigration reform as one of his priorities, but critics have claimed that the president failed to take the lead on immigration policy changes and deportations have increased under his administration. However, the Obama administration proposed sweeping new legislation earlier this month that would offer a pathway to citizenship for millions of immigrants within the U.S., to be met under certain conditions, while also changing current immigration laws in order to allow
immigrants with family members in the country to stay under an extended amount of time while applying for citizenship.
(--) Obama will lead the charge on immigration reform: Julia Preston, 1/12/2013 (staff writer, Obama Will Seek Citizenship Path in One Fast
Supporters of comprehensive changes say that the elections were nothing less than a mandate in their favor, and that they are still optimistic that Mr. Obama is prepared to lead the fight .
Republicans must demonstrate a reasoned approach to start to rebuild their relationship with Latino voters, said Clarissa M artinez de Castro, the director of immigration policy at the National Council of La Raza, a Latino organization. Democrats must demonstrate they can deliver on a promise.
56
UQ: AT: Gun Control Thumper

(--) Wont be a fight and public pushes, not Obama AP 2/5/2013 (Obama stands firm on gun control despite long odds,
http://www.lewistownsentinel.com/page/content.detail/id/288266/Obama-stands-firm-ongun-control-despite-long-odds-.html?isap=1&nav=5016, CMR)
Obama also was more upbeat on the prospects of universal background checks, including for purchases at gun shows. "The good news is that we're starting to see a consensus emerge about the action Congress needs to take," he said. "The vast majority of Americans, including a majority of gun owners, support requiring criminal background checks for anyone trying to buy a gun. There's no reason why we can't get that done." He urged Americans to call their members of Congress to push for his entire package of stronger gun controls. "Tell them now is the time for action."
(--) Obama will focus capital on immigration first Bellantoni 1/31/2013 (Christina, Obama Keeps Up Pressure for Gun Laws,
Immigration Reform, http://www.pbs.org/newshour/rundown/2013/01/obamacontinues-full-court-press-for-gun-immigration-agendas.html, CMR)
consensus is emerging among lawmakers for an expansion of background checks for gun buyers, a proposal with far more bipartisan
The Washington Post's Ed O'Keefe and David Farenthold assessed the hearing in full and concluded, " A support than a reinstatement of the federal assault-weapons ban." The NewsHour put together a detailed report on the day's drama. Watch here or below: More of our coverage of the gun debate can be found here. On immigration, Mr. Obama participated in interviews with two television networks catering to Spanish-language audiences. On Telemundo the president said he won't pull back on enforcement of the law or scale back deportation. He acknowledged it could be a tough political battle ahead but emphasized his commitment to the issue. "The
one
thing I can guarantee is my effort," Mr. Obama told Telemundo. "I can guarantee that I will put everything I've got behind it . We're putting our shoulder to the wheel." He told Univision that he wants to see legislation move forward swiftly . "If they are on a path as they have already said, where they want to get a bill done by March, then I think that's
a reasonable timeline and I think we can get that done. I'm not going to lay down a particular date because I want to give them a little room to debate," he said. "If it slips a week, that's one thing. If it starts slipping three months, that's a problem." The New York Times' Michael Shear
and Mark Landler report that administration aides are sounding confident notes about political momentum being on the president's side. Politico's Lois Romano writes of an effort afoot in the House by four Republicans
and four Democrats. She reports they "had hoped to put forth a statement of principles as early as Friday, but sources say that is unlikely" and it could be closer to Feb. 12, the day of the State of the Union. With Mr. Obama's
annual address to lawmakers less than two weeks away and his plans to make his case at campaign-style events outside of Washington, the pressure on Congress will only increase .
57
(--) Obamas actual gun agenda is not controversial Slater 2/14/2013, Joanna, Six Takeaways From The State of the Union, The Globe
and Mail (Canada), Lexis
The expected An appeal for gun control In the two months since the mass shooting at an elementary school in Newtown, Conn., U.S. President Barack Obama
has made it clear that he intends to push for further restrictions on gun sales. He reiterated two policies - universal background checks for buyers and limiting the amount of ammunition in magazines - that appear to have bipartisan support.
that call on Tuesday night, highlighting
(--) Biden pushes, not Obama Shiner 1/31/2013 (Meredith, Biden Continues Upbeat Mission on Gun Control,
http://www.rollcall.com/news/biden_continues_upbeat_mission_on_gun_control222070-1.html?pg=2, CMR)
Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr. paid
a House call to Senate Democrats weekly policy lunch Thursday, pushing the
presidents gun control agenda and calling the implementation of stricter gun laws a political no brainer. Words come easier to Biden in a mob of reporters, however, than they do to Senate Democratic leaders when they craft legislative
text. Democrats have taken their first steps toward legislation by holding Senate Judiciary Committee hearings, but the timeline for an actual bill, whatever that might look like, is unclear. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nev., has said he would like any gun violence bill to move through the committee in regular order, something that would happen perhaps at the same time the panel considers a massive immigration overhaul. Biden, who was tasked by President Barack Obama to craft the administrations gun policy, visited his old stomping ground to remind his colleagues that gun control is a top priority of Obamas, even if the caucus hasnt come fo rward with a clear strategy to proceed and handfuls of members are reluctant to touch gun control at all. The visual image of those 20 little children being riddled with bullets has not only traumatized the nation but ... its like the straw that broke the camels back, Biden with Democrats in the Mansfield Room, right off the Senate floor. I recommendations the president laid out.
told reporters after meeting
made the case
for not only assault weapons but for the entire set of
(--) Immigration 1st comes before everything, including gun control AP 1/26/2013 (Obama, senators launching immigration push,
http://www.newsday.com/news/nation/obama-senators-launching-immigration-push1.4514347, CMR)
will launch a campaign next week aimed at overhauling the nation's flawed
immigration system and creating legal status for millions, as a bipartisan Senate group nears agreement on achieving the same goals. The proposals from Obama and lawmakers will mark the start of what is expected to be a contentious and emotional process with deep political implications. Latino voters overwhelmingly backed Obama in the 2012 election, leaving Republicans grappling for a way to regain their standing with an increasingly powerful pool of voters. The president will press his case for immigration changes during a trip to Las Vegas Tuesday. The Senate working group is also aiming to outline its proposals next week, according to a Senate aide. Administration officials say Obama's second-term immigration push will be a continuation of the principles he outlined during his first four years in office but failed to act on. He is expected to revive his little-noticed 2011 immigration "blueprint," which calls for a pathway to citizenship for illegal immigrants that includes paying fines and back taxes; increased border security; mandatory penalties for businesses that employ unauthorized immigrants; and improvements to the legal immigration system, including giving green cards to high-skilled workers and lifting caps on legal immigration for the immediate family members of U.S. citizens. "What has been absent in the time since
he put those principles forward has been a willingness by Republicans, generally speaking, to move forward with comprehensive immigration reform," White House press secretary Jay Carney said. "What he hopes is that that dynamic has changed." The political dynamic does appear to have shifted following the November election. Despite making little progress on immigration in his first term, Obama won more than 70 percent of the Latino vote, in part because of the conservative positions on immigration that Republican nominee Mitt Romney staked out during the GOP primary. Latino voters accounted for 10 percent of the electorate in November. The president met privately Friday morning with the Congressional Hispanic Caucus to discuss his next steps on immigration. Among those in the meeting was Rep. Linda Sanchez, D-Calif., who said Obama
told lawmakers "immigration reform is his number one legislative priority." That could
bump back the president's efforts to seek legislation enacting stricter gun laws, another issue he has vowed to make a
top second term priority.
58
(--) Wont be a fight or affect immigration Hopkins 1/20/2013 (Cheyenne, Plouffe Predicts Passage of Gun Control, Immigration
Changes, http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-01-20/plouffe-predicts-passage-ofgun-control-immigration-measures.html, CMR)
President Barack Obamas proposed immigration
law changes and gun control measures should be able to pass
Congress , said David Plouffe, Obamas senior political adviser. Newtown has changed the debate , Plouffe said on
CNNs State of the Union today, referring to the Connecticut town where 20 schoolchildren and 6 educators were killed last month. Sadly, it took a tragedy like that, but youre seeing a
lot of people -- by the way Democrats and Republicans -- think differently about this issue since this tragedy. Enlarge image Obama Takes Oath at White House to Begin Second Term U.S. Supreme Court Chief Justice
John Roberts administers the oath of office as U.S. President Barack Obama is sworn in for a second term in the Blue Room of the White House in Washington, D.C. on Sunday. Photographer: Brendan Smialowski/Pool via Bloomberg Obama was officially sworn in today, as required by the Constitution, in a small ceremony at the White House. He will take the oath a second time tomorrow in a public event on the steps of the U.S. Capitol. Chief Justice John Roberts will administer both oaths. Vice President Joe Biden was also sworn in today for a second term by Supreme Court Justice Sonia Sotomayor at his residence at the Naval Observatory in Washington. Later, Obama and Biden laid a wreath at the Tomb of the Unknowns in Arlington National Cemetery. Obama has staked out a second term agenda of overhauling immigration, gun control and the tax code. Plouffe
took an optimistic stance, saying that the time has come for both immigration change and gun control. Republican Reaction U.S. Senator Roy Blunt, a Republican from Missouri, said he wants to see a detailed gun control plan
from Obama. Lets do things better rather than take an opportunity to go after an old agenda, Blunt said today on Fox News Sunday program. There has to be a plan that could possibly work or the president wont get it done. Senator John Barrasso, a Republican from Wyoming, said the presidents plan wont pass Congress and he doubts Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid will bring it to the f loor. He has six Democrats up for election in two years in states where the president received fewer than 42 percent of the vote, Barrasso said on CNNs State of the Union. Democrats control the Senate with 53 seats to 45 Republican seats. The two independent senators cau cus with the Democrats. He doesnt want his Democrats to have to choose between their own constituencies and the presidents positions, Barrasso. H e said the president is focusing too much on gun control and ignoring mental health and violence in society. Economic Wreckage Obamas first term was largely consumed by repairing economic wreckage from the 2008 financial crisis and getting his health care law passed. His second term is starting with efforts to reach a compromise with Congress on raising the debt ceiling and cutting deficit spending. A Republican plan for a shortterm debt ceiling increase, giving the Treasury Department three more months of borrowing capacity, is progress, Plouffe said on the Fox News Sunday program. We dont think short-term is smart for the economy because it doesnt offer certainty, he said on Fox. The debt limit has been periodically raised since its creation in 1917, when Congress and President Woodrow Wilson authorized the Treasury to issue long-term securities to help finance entry into World War I. Since 1960, Congress has raised or revised the limit 79 times, including 49 times under Republican presidents, according to the Treasury Department, noting the U.S. never has defaulted on its obligations. Three Months Three months is no way to run the economy or railroad or anything else so thats not ideal, Plouffe said on CBSs Face the Nation program. Still, its a significant moment that the Republican party now has moved off their position that the only way theyre going to pay their bills is if they get the correct kind of concessions. The Senate will pass a budget this year, U.S. Senator Charles Schumer, a Democrat from New York, said on NBCs Meet the Press program. Its going to have revenues in it and our Republican colleagues better get used to that fact, Schumer said. House Republicans last week said they plan to vote on a three-month extension of U.S. borrowing authority in an effort to force the Democratic-led Senate to adopt a budget. Financing for government agencies is scheduled to lapse in March. Congress faces two other fiscal deadlines in the next 90 days, and House Republicans plan to use those debates -- rather than the struggle over the debt limit -- to try to force spending cuts. The last time Congress fought over the ceiling, Obama signed an increase on Aug. 2, 2011, the day that the Treasury warned U.S. borrowing authority would expire. Credit Rating Standard & Poors cut the nations credit rating. Still, Treasury bond investors -- who most directly bear the risk of any government default -- havent shown alarm. Yields on 10-year U.S. Treasury notes declined to 2.56 percent on Aug. 5, 2011, the day of the S&P downgrade, and continued to fall. Yields on 10-year Treasuries, a benchmark for everything from mortgages to corporate borrowing costs, are down from more than 5 percent in 2007, before the financial crisis of 2008. Treasury 10-year notes rose last week for a second week for the first time since November as the absence of a resolution to the impasse the U.S. debt ceiling sustained demand for the safest securities. The 10-year note yield fell this week three basis points, or 0.03 percentage point, to 1.84 percent, according to Bloomberg Bond Trader pricing. Plouffe said Congress has the votes to pass Obamas agenda. Were confident and thats one reason we want to stay in communication with the American people because I think they are going to demand action here, Plouffe said on CNN. Gun Control The Dec. 14 shooting in a Connecticut grade school thrust gun control to the top of Obamas second -term agenda. This past week, he unveiled the most ambitious gun-control proposals in decades, announcing a $500 million package of legislation and executive actions aimed at curbing firearms violence. The president called on Congress to require background checks for all gun buyers, ban high-capacity ammunition clips, and reinstate a ban on sales of assault weapons. Obama also signed 23 executive actions aimed at circumventing congressional opposition to new gun restrictions, including several designed to maximize prosecution of gun crimes and improve access to government data for background checks. Plouffe said the
president should be able to get the 60 votes in the Senate and the 219 votes in the House needed to pass a gun control bill. Assault Weapons If you look at high-capacity magazines, assault weapons, universal background checks, progress we can make on mental health and school safety, all of these things enjoy enormous support of the American people, both Democrats and Republicans, Plouffe said on ABCs This Week with George Stephanopoulos. Putting together the legislative coalition is going to be hard, obviously, but were very confident. I do think things have changed since Newtown, Plouffe said. Obamas call has put him in conflict with the National Rifle Association, which opposes the
restrictions and has called for armed guards in every school. The gun lobby last week released an ad saying Obamas own daugh ters are protected by armed guards at school and calling the president an elitist hypocrite. Obamas inaugural address tomorrow and State of the Union speech on Feb. 12 will set the tone as he pushes for action. Plouffe said there
is no reason that immigration reform shouldnt
59

pass. Obviously the legislative process has to work its way through but this is the moment, Plouffe said. The stars seem to be aligned to finally get comprehensive immigration reform.
(--) Immigration reform takes precedence Boerma, 1/30/2013 (Lindsey, Obama: "No doubt" Congress will pass immigration,
gun bills in coming months http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-34222_162-5756679010391739/obama-no-doubt-congress-will-pass-immigration-gun-bills-in-coming-months/ sjg) There's more bipartisan support in Congress for comprehensive immigration reform than gun control legislation, President Obama said tonight during an interview with Univision, but qualified that even under his proposal, illegal immigrants shouldn't be harboring expectations that they'll be granted citizenship "manana." "Even under our proposal, this is not a situation where overnight, suddenly people all find themselves as citizens," Mr. Obama told the Spanishlanguage television network. "They're going to have to go to the back of the line. We're going to have to clear out the existing line, backlogs we have in terms of illegal immigrants, because they did it the right way. We shouldn't
punish them for breaking the law.
(--) Gun control wont block push for immigration reform: Elise Foley, 1/15/2013 (staff writer, Obama Gears Up For Immigration Reform Push
Obama has repeatedly said he will push hard for immigration reform in his second term, and administration officials have said that other contentious legislative initiatives -- including gun control and the debt ceiling -- won't be allowed to get in the way. At least at first glance, he seems to have politics on his side. GOP lawmakers are entering -- or, in some cases, re-entering -- the immigration debate in the wake of disastrous results for their party's presidential nominee with Latino voters , who support reform by large measures. Based on those new political realities, "it would be a suicidal impulse for Republicans in Congress to continue to block [reform]," David Axelrod, a longtime adviser to the president, told The
Huffington Post.
(--) Republican response to gun control initiatives is muted: George Zornick, 1/16/2013 (staff writer, Obama Goes Big on Gun Control,
http://www.thenation.com/blog/172255/obama-goes-big-gun-control, Accessed 1/23/2013, rwg)
Obama also signed twenty-three executive orders on gun control,
beyond what hes asking Congress for. The highlights include directives to state health programs to make sure there is parity between mental and physical health services under Medicaid; a raft of orders designed to beef up compliance with the FBIs crimin al background check system; and increased law enforcement of existing gun laws. Crucially, Obama will also nominate a permanent head of the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco and Firearms, which has been without even a temporary chief since 2006 and without a permanent one since 1970. That will reportedly be Byron Todd Jones, who is already at the agency. The White House unveiling was greeted with fulsome praise from gun control advocates. This profoundly historic initiative pu ts the full moral and political weight of the presidency behind strong and specific measures to reduce gun violence, said Senator Richard Blumenthal of Connecticut in a statement. It is presidential leadership at its best and boldest. Progressives also seemed pleased, not only because of the policy proposals but because the president was going all-in on a fight. We applaud the White House plan to think big and take bold action against gun killings, said Stephanie Taylor, co-founder of the Progressive Change Campaign Committeean outfit not known for praising Obama. The PCCC is all in for this fight, investing time and money in Republican and Democratic districts until Congress passes major gun legislation that includes an assault weapons ban. In
Congress, the reaction from Republican leadership was muted for now, office put a noncommittal, two-sentence response:
House committees of
anyhow. House Speaker John Boehners
jurisdiction will review these recommendations. And if the Senate passes a bill, we will also take a look at that.
60
(--) Obama is using executive orders to pass gun controlnot engaging in fights with Congress: Brian Hughes, 1/16/2013 (staff writer, Obama: 'We must act now' on gun control
proposals, http://washingtonexaminer.com/obama-we-must-act-now-on-gun-controlproposals/article/2518836#.UQB-6_Jn2No, Accessed 1/23/2013, rwg)
Obama is using executive orders to enact a number of his proposals without congressional approval . Those initiatives include more research funding for the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention on gun violence, stricter
penalties for those who lie on background checks and allowing schools to use more grant money to hire school resource officers.
(--) Neither party will let fiscal cliff or guns get in the way of immigration reform: Julia Preston, 1/12/2013 (staff writer, Obama Will Seek Citizenship Path in One Fast
is so important now to both parties that neither the fiscal cliff nor guns will get in the way , said Senator Charles E. Schumer of New York, a Democrat who is a leader of the bipartisan discussions. A similar attempt at bipartisan legislation early in Mr. Obamas first term collapsed amid political divisions fueled by surging public wrath over illegal immigration in many states. But both supporters and opponents say conditions are significantly
This
different now . (--) Fiscal negotiations and gun control wont trade off with immigration reform:
Julia Preston, 1/12/2013 (staff writer, Obama Will Seek Citizenship Path in One Fast Push, http://www.nytimes.com/2013/01/13/us/politics/obama-plans-to-push-congresson-immigration-overhaul.html?_r=0, Accessed 1/24/2013, rwg)
Even while Mr. Obama has been focused on fiscal negotiations and gun control, overhauling immigration remains a priority for him this year, White House officials said. Top officials there have been quietly working
on a broad proposal. Mr. Obama and lawmakers from both parties believe that the early months of his second term offer the best prospects for passing substantial legislation on the issue.
(--) Reid wont even take gun control up for a vote: Brian Montopoli, 1/24/2013 (senior political reporter, Gun control bill faces long odds
in Congress,http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-250_162-57565515/gun-control-bill-faceslong-odds-in-congress/, Accessed 1/24/2013, rwg)
recently that he wouldn't even allow a vote on an assault weapons ban, since it would not pass the GOP-led House. (A vote for gun control could be political damaging to
Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nev., indicated Democrats from gun-friendly states, some of whom are up for reelection in 2014.) On Tuesday, Reid signaled that he may allow a vote, though he made clear that he did not expect the measure to pass. The Senate Majority Leader, a longtime supporter of gun rights, said he expected the Senate Judiciary Committee to produce a bill after its hearings on gun control, which begin next week.
(--) Biden, not Obama, is leading the gun control charge: Brian Montopoli, 1/24/2013 (senior political reporter, Gun control bill faces long odds
"I can't speak to that directly," Carney responded. "I just know that we are working with Sen. Feinstein, working with other senators in the Senate, and we'll work with House members to try to move something forward here. The reality is, as we've talked about, that none of this is going to be easy. But the fact that it's not easy doesn't mean we shouldn't try." Vice President Joe Biden,
who led the effort to craft Mr. Obama's proposals, is hosting a "fireside hangout" on Google+ Thursday to discuss gun control efforts.
61
(--) Obama not leading the legislation on gun control: Brian Montopoli, 1/24/2013 (senior political reporter, Gun control bill faces long odds
The White House opted not to send its own bill to Capitol Hill after Mr. Obama's announcement; it
says it supports Feinstein's effort and has worked with her office in crafting the new version. Yet there is little reason to believe that the measure could pass the GOP-led House - and it may well not even be able to get through the Democrat-led Senate.
62
UQ: AT: Hagel Thumper

(--) No fight, no filibuster Weiner 2/4/2013 (Rachel, Chuck Hagel filibuster unlikely,
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/post-politics/wp/2013/02/04/mcconnell-senategop-could-filibuster-hagel/, CMR)
A filibuster against Hagel would be unprecedented . A Cabinet nominee has never been defeated by filibuster, although nominees have been voted down by a majority (John Tower was the first in three decades) or pulled over scandal or
opposition (Tom Daschle, Bernard Kerik). Individual Democrats have, in the past, put holds on Cabinet nominees Sen. Tom Carper (D-Del.) put a hold on President George W. Bushs nominee to head the Environmental Protection Agency*, Stephen Johnson over a dispute involving the the Clear Skies initiative, and Sen. Bill Nelson (D-Fla.) put one on Dirk Kempthorne, Bushs nominee for Interior, over offshore drilling. But both nominees were confirmed after cloture votes. (Judicial and non-Cabinet level nominations are another story.) The a 14-12 edge, could vote on Hagels nomination as early as Thursday. A Senate floor vote could happen next week.
White House
has expressed confidence that Hagel will be confirmed. The Senate Armed Services Committee, where Democrats have
(--) Obama not key multiple super-stars pushing Hagel Zengerle 1/30/2013 (Patricia, White House on offensive to get Hagel as defense
secretary, 2013, http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/01/30/us-usa-obama-nominationshagel-idUSBRE90T07B20130130, CMR)
The group included Obama allies like Senate Democratic leader Harry Reid, who pushed
Schumer and other balky Democrats to back Hagel, White House officials and Hagel aides from his two terms in the Senate. Administration officials have
reached out to Jewish groups and reassured gay rights activists. Hagel met with leaders of some of the largest Jewish-American groups at the White House on Friday, where he was joined by Vice President Joe Biden. And they
have enlisted an array of luminaries to
serve as Hagel ambassadors. Thirteen former secretaries of defense and state and national security advisers from both parties sent a letter to senators last week strongly backing his nomination. Hagel will be introduced at his hearing by two former Senate Armed Services committee chairmen, Democrat Sam Nunn and Republican John Warner, who both - like Hagel - were known for breaking from party doctrine on a range of issues.
(--) Hagel inevitable only thing that derail that is confirmation hearing gaffes which are outside Obamas control Newton-Small 1/31/2013 (Jay, Can Chuck Hagel Overcome?,
http://swampland.time.com/2013/01/31/can-hagel-overcome/#ixzz2JcJhVuor, CMR)
Despite the blitz, Hagels nomination looks likely to pass the Senate assuming he can survive Thursdays confirmation hearing in the Senate Armed Services Committee. Earlier this week, Senator Dick Durbin of Illinois, the Senate whip, said that all 55 members of the Senate Democratic caucus will vote for Hagel though many
Democrats have decided to publically withhold their support until after the hearing. Republican Senator Thad Cochran of Mississippi has said he will also vote for Hagel, which means Hagel need only muster another four GOP votes, assuming his nomination is even filibustered. Those
four votes are riding on what Hagel , a former Republican Senator from Nebraska, says at his hearing . Senator John
McCain, an Arizona Republican, and many of Hagels erstwhile GOP colleagues, were upset when Hagel opposed the surge and beca me an outspoken critic of the Bush Administration on the handling of the Iraqi reconstruction. Hagel didnt help matters whe n he also endorsed Barack Obama over McCain in the 2008 presidential election and Democrat Bob Kerrey over Deb Fischer in last years Nebraska Senate r ace. But, as Senator John Cornyn, a Texas Republican, said, Its not a matter of personalities. Chuck Hagels an honorable man. Republicans have other concerns such as Hagels past comments advocating for direct engagement with Iran (a position once held by presidential candi date Barack Obama), past votes in 2001 and 2008 against Iran sanctions and a comment about how the Jewish lobby intimidates a lot of people, for which Hagel has apologized. Republicans have also voiced concerns about Hagels 2011 comments to the Financial Times that the Penta gon budget is bloated. Others have also been upset at his support of a group called Global Zero, which seeks to eradicate nuclear arms globally, even though Hagel has said he would not support unilateral U.S. reductions. Chuck Hagel But as with GOP senators and Jewish groups, he
Hagel has made the rounds, meeting privately has assuaged many concerns . Though they are withholding final judgment until after the
hearing, McCain and Republican Senators Susan Collins of Maine, Nebraskas Fischer, Mike Lee of Utah and New Hampshires Kell y Ayotte
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were much pacified after meeting with Hagel and their criticisms muted. It was a pleasant conversation, McCain said, between old friends. Thus far James Inhofe of Oklahoma, the top Republican on the Armed Services Committee, David Vitter (R-LA), Roger Wicker (R-MS), Tom Coburn (R-OK), Pat Roberts (R-KS), Dan Coats (R-IN) and John Cornyn (R-TX) have confirmed they will under no circumstances support Hagels nomination. Senator Lindsey Graham, a South Carolina Republican, said he might move to block Hagels nominati on if Panetta does not agree to testify before the committee on the Benghazi attacks in September last year that killed U.S. Ambassador Chris Stevens and three other Americans. A Panetta testimony has not yet been confirmed. Democrats have voiced concerns about a comment Hagel made in 1998 about an ambassadorial nominee being too gay for the job, a comment for which Hagel has apologized. Democratic Senators Chuck Schumer of New York and Californias Barbara Boxer, the strongest Democratic proponents of Israel, had voiced concerns about Hagels stances on Iran. But both backed down after meetings with Hagel where he pledged to fully support Obamas policy of prevention. Hagels financial disclosures this week also raised some alarm bells as he sits on the board of Chevron and Deutsche Bank, which is under investigation by the Treasury Department for its dealings with Iran. Hagel has said hed quit those boards and divest his Chevron stock if confirmed. By Wednesday
even Republicans aides were privately conceding that Hagel would be confirmed barring any major gaffes in Thursdays hearing. And attacking too overtly someone they will likely have to work closely with once confirmed might hold back some of Hagels harshest critics . Which means that Thursdays hearing,
while still pivotal, is more likely to clear Hagels path than block it.
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UQ: AT: Nominations Thumper

Cabinet nominees are politically safe Weiner 2/4 (Rachel, Chuck Hagel filibuster unlikely,
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/post-politics/wp/2013/02/04/mcconnell-senate-gopcould-filibuster-hagel/, CMR)
Democrats have 55 votes in the Senate; they would need five Republicans to break a filibuster. Sen. Thad Cochran (R-Miss.) and Sen. Mike Johanns (R-Neb.) are supporting Hagel. Sen. Roy Blunt (R-Mo.) told MSNBC last week that he was against a filibuster, even though he planned to vote against Hagel in the final vote. Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) said Monday that he also opposes a filibuster and will urge his colleagues against mounting one. Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) has
told reporters that shes not inclined to support a filibuster. Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) is generally opposed to filibustering Cabinet nominees. One of the prerogatives of the president is to appoint his Cabinet , she told the Omaha World-Herald.
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UQ: AT: NLRB Thumper

Doesnt affect immigration only the plan draws Obama into *legislative battles* that ruin congressional support More ev to support this distinction Obamas legislative priorization ensures passage Gomez, 1/25 (Alan, Obama, members of Congress start immigration push,
http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2013/01/25/obama-immigration-congresslegislation/1865129/, CMR)
Obama has vowed to make immigration a 'top legislative priority.' The push to overhaul the nation's immigration laws is officially underway. President Obama met with Hispanic members of Congress at the White House on Friday and is planning a speech in Las Vegas on Tuesday to " redouble the administration's efforts to work with Congress to fix the broken immigration system this year,"
according to a White House statement.
Obama insisted that he would lead on the issue , and emphasized that any changes
to the nation's immigration laws would include an "earned pathway to citizenship" for the nation's 11 million illegal immigrants. Republicans have insisted that the country fully secure the borders and enact tight restrictions on businesses from hiring illegal immigrants before granting any new rights to people illegally living in the country. STORY: Jeb Bush pushes comprehensive immigration strategy After Friday's meeting,
members of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus all Democrats said they were enthusiastic by the president's commitment to moving on an immigration bill. "The president is the quarterback and he will direct the team, call the play and be pivotal if we succeed ," said Rep. Luis Gutierrez, D-Ill., one of the House members who will be shepherding the bill through Congress. Both Republicans and Democrats have discussed the need to tackle immigration this term, but there are many disagreements over what it will look like and how to proceed. Republicans, including Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida, have insisted that they approach it piece by piece. A
bipartisan group of senators plan on introducing a bill on Tuesday focused on increasing the number of visas for high-skilled immigrants with degrees in the STEM fields science, technology, engineering and mathematics according to The Hill. Meanwhile, many Democrats support a "comprehensive" bill that would address all the issues at once. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid filed Senate Bill No. 1 as the "Immigration Reform that Works for America's Future Act," a symbolic, but telling indication of how important the issue will be in the new Congress. Another bipartisan group of senators is almost ready to unveil their own comprehensive immigration plan, according to The Washington Post. Whatever
the approach, members feel the stars are finally aligned
to tackle an issue that eluded
George W. Bush during his White House years and Obama during his first term in office. "Immigration reform is not a matter of 'if' but 'when,'" said Rep. Xavier Becerra, D-Calif., chairman of the House Democratic Caucus. "After today's meeting, it's clear that President Obama is determined to fix our long broken immigration system."
Get real the decision was a joke and wont stick AP 1/26 (White House: Ruling won't affect other Obama picks, http://www.palitem.com/article/20130126/UPDATES/130126003/White-House-Ruling-won-t-affect-otherObama-picks, CMR)
The Justice
Department hinted that the administration would ask the Supreme Court to overturn the the presidents recess appointments are constitutionally
decision , which was rendered by three conservative judges appointed by Republican presidents .
We disagree with the courts ruling and believe that
sound , the statement said. The court acknowledged that the ruling conflicts with what some other federal appeals
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courts have held about when recess appointments are valid, which only added to the likelihood of an appeal to the high court.
More ev Savage 1/26 (Charlie, Obama appointments ruled unconstitutional,

http://bostonglobe.com/news/nation/2013/01/26/obama-appointments-ruledunconstitutional/UQ4lPD7VRvUcaAEai3IzFP/story.html, CMR)
The ruling came in a lawsuit brought by a Pepsi-Cola bottler from Washington state that challenged a National Labor Relations Board decision against the company in a labor dispute. The bottler argued, and the court agreed, that the three Obama appointments were invalid and that the five-seat board lacked a quorum to take any action. Mark G. Pearce, the NLRBs chairman, said
the board disagrees with todays decision and believes that the presidents position in the matter will ultimately
be upheld .
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UQ: AT: General Thumpers

Hold all of their link UQ to a very high threshold-issues dont cost PC until theyre at the finish line Drum, 10 (Kevin, Political Blogger, Mother Jones, http://motherjones.com/kevindrum/2010/03/immigration-coming-back-burner)**
Not to pick on Ezra or anything, but this attitude betrays a surprisingly common misconception about political issues in general. The
fact is that political dogs never bark until an issue becomes an active one. Opposition to Social Security privatization was pretty mild until 2005, when George Bush turned it into an active issue. Opposition to healthcare reform was mild until 2009, when Barack Obama turned it into an active issue. Etc. I only bring this up because we often take a look at polls and think they tell us what the public thinks about something. But for the most part, they don't.1 That is, they don't until the issue in question is squarely on the table and both sides have spent a couple of months filling the airwaves with their best agitprop. Polling data about gays in the military, for example, hasn't changed a lot over the past year or two, but once Congress takes up the issue in earnest and the Focus on the Family newsletters go out, the push polling starts, Rush Limbaugh picks it up, and Fox News creates an incendiary graphic to go with its saturation coverage well, that's when the polling will tell you something. And it will probably tell you something different from what it tells you now. Immigration was bubbling along as sort of a background issue during the Bush administration too until 2007, when he tried to move an actual bill. Then all hell broke loose. The same thing will happen this time, and without even a John McCain to act as a conservative point man for a moderate solution. The political environment is worse now than it was in 2007, and I'll be very surprised if it's possible to make any serious progress on immigration reform. "Love 'em or hate 'em," says Ezra, illegal immigrants "aren't at the forefront of people's minds." Maybe not. But they will be soon.
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UQ: AT: Not Serious-Obama is Tricking Republicans

(--) Obamas serioushe wants true immigration reform: Aliyah Frumin, 1/30/2013 (staff writer, Does Obama really want immigration
reform? http://tv.msnbc.com/2013/01/30/does-obama-really-want-immigration-reform/, Accessed 1/30/2013, rwg)
The Washington Posts Nia-Malika Henderson and the Huffington Posts Howard Fineman
dismissed the argument that Obama doesnt want true immigration reform. I think his true objective has been what it always was, even going back to 2008 when he campaigned on the issue of comprehensive immigration reform. Obviously, he wasnt able to get it done in his first term, said Henderson. I think he already won the political fight in 2012, so now its about his legacy and whether or not he can get this big grand bargain around immigration, she added.
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UQ: AT: Vote a Long Way Off

(--) Obama will push now and Immigration reform will pass within 90 days: Dan Moffett, 1/21/2013 (staff writer, Obama's Inauguration Begins Push For
Comprehensive Reform Bill, http://immigration.about.com/b/2013/01/21/obamainauguration-begins-push-for-comprehensive-reform.htm, Accessed 1/24/2013, rwg) Top Democrats and White House aides are saying that President Obama not only talked about
comprehensive immigration reform in his inaugural address Monday, but he will start pushing Congress to agree on a bill and pass it within the next 90 days.
(--) Immigration reform coming in the next few weeks: Sarah Hutchinson, 2/16/2013 (staff writer, Next Up in Congress: Immigration
Reform? http://www.houghtonstar.com/2013/02/16/next-up-in-congress-immigrationreform/, Accessed 2/21/2013, rwg)
The United States may well be on its way to immigration reform within the coming weeks. As talks and discussions among Congress become more serious and legislation begins to develop, the United States may even be implementing new immigration reform by the next State of the Union Address in 2014.
(--) Vote can happen by May: Business and Legal Resources, 2/18/2013 (Congress: We need immigration
reform! http://hr.blr.com/HR-news/Staffing-Training/Visas-and-Eligibility-toWork/Congress-We-need-immigration-reform, Accessed 2/21/2013, rwg)
In fact, Obama
included immigration reform in his short wish list of accomplishments during his second term when he was inaugurated. If work began before his address, the first wave of congressional voting on the issue could come in May or June.
(--) Bill can pass by this summer: Ashley Killough, 1/30/2013 (staff writer, Obama wants immigration reform in first
half of the year, http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2013/01/30/obama-wantsimmigration-reform-in-first-half-of-the-year/, Accessed 1/30/2013, rwg)
(CNN) President Barack Obama said Wednesday he wants to get an immigration reform package passed as soon as this summer. "I'm hopeful that this can get done, and I don't think that it should take many, many months," Obama said in an interview with the Spanish-language network Telemundo. "I think this is something we should be able to get done certainly this year, and I'd like to see if we could get it done sooner, in the first half of the year if possible."
(--) Meetings have begun now: Julia Preston, 1/12/2013 (staff writer, Obama Will Seek Citizenship Path in One Fast
A bipartisan group of senators has also been meeting to write a comprehensive bill, with the goal of introducing legislation as early as March and holding a vote in the Senate before August . As a sign of the
keen interest in starting action on immigration, White House officials and Democratic leaders in the Senate have been negotiating over which of them will first introduce a bill, Senate aides said.
70
(--) Meetings on immigration reform have begun now: Julia Preston, 1/12/2013 (staff writer, Obama Will Seek Citizenship Path in One Fast
Parallel to the White House effort, Mr. Schumer and Senator Lindsey Graham of South Carolina, a Republican, have been meeting with a group of at least four other colleagues to write a bill .
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UQ: AT: Uniqueness Overwhelms Link (--) Window of opportunity in the first few months of 2013it could close at any point: Dan Merica, 3/8/2013 (staff writer, Obama pushes expedited timetable on immigration
reform in meeting with faith leaders, http://religion.blogs.cnn.com/2013/03/08/obamapushes-expedited-timetable-on-immigration-reform-in-meeting-with-faith-leaders/, Accessed 3/8/2013, rwg)
Some faith leaders have long called for comprehensive immigration reform, but demand for reform has increased in the last few months. I think we have a window of opportunity in these first months of 2013, Richard Land, president of the Ethics and Religious Liberty Commission, told CNN in January. I think there is a real, new conversation on immigration reform. That window, Land acknowledged, is small and could close at any point.
Congress has a number of issues to deal with in the coming year; Republican members of Congress hope to focus on government spending and the debt, while the White House is likely to push for gun control early in the presidents s econd term.
(--) Window of opportunity for immigration reform in the first few months of 2013, however, it can easily close: Jaweed Kaleem, 1/14/2013 (staff writer, Evangelicals Join The Push For Immigration
Reform, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/jaweed-kaleem/evangelicals-immigrationreform_b_2472836.html, Accessed 1/23/2013, rwg)
Though the groups began holding broader discussion two years ago, Monday will serve as the campaign's first concerted push on immigration, with the goal of getting meaningful immigration reform through Congress in 2013. "I
think we have a window of opportunity
in these first months of 2013," Richard Land, president of the Ethics and Religious Liberty Commission, told CNN. "I think there is a real, new conversation on immigration reform." That window, Land acknowledges, is small and could close at any point. Congress has a number of issues to deal with in the coming year; Republican
members of Congress hope to focus on government spending and the debt, while the White House is likely to push for gun control early in the president's second term.
(--) You cant assume passage is inevitableimmigration reform has failed too many times before: Garza 1/31/2013 (Daniel Garza was formerly Associate Director at the Office of Public
Liaison for The White House, Daniel Garza: Immigration Reform Inevitable? Think Again, 1/31/13 http://latino.foxnews.com/latino/opinion/2013/01/31/daniel-garza-immigration-reforminevitable-think-again/#ixzz2Jcb2WOUK)
If you listened closely, President Barack Obama didnt seem to propose anything irreconcilable in his immigration press conference from Las Vegas from what the Group of 8 senators proposed the day before. That is good news. He even seemed to leave himself some wiggle room for future compromise. But
if anyone thinks immigration reform is
inevitable, they better think again . Americans pretty much agree that our current immigration law is broken. After all, there are an estimated 11 million people
residing in America without the legal authority to do so. Additionally, we suffer from market inefficiencies, a dangerously porous border, split families and millions of kids unable to attend colleges and universities because of our protracted inaction on immigration reform. So if everyone agrees we have a mess on our hands, whats the problem? In a nutshell, we disagree on how to resolve it. Moreover,
Congress may lack the will to do so . Maybe its because the issue is too emotionally charged and too complex. Politicians have
deliberately staked out untenable positions solely for the purpose of scoring political points making a bi-partisanship agreement almost impossible to achieve. Democrats demand a massive, comprehensive bill the kind you dont know whats in it until its passed - and Republicans demand it be done in smaller, manageable pieces (Temporary Worker Program, Dream Act, STEM Act, Border Security, etc.). Consider also that a majority of Americans have quietly settled on the status quo, feeling no urgency to make changes. After all, we fully expect inexpensive housing construction, and our homes be kept immaculate by undocumented maids, we want our manicured lawns, pools cleaned, pets groomed, and roofs re-shingled by cheap and anonymous labor. The protracted inaction has wrought much more damage than meets the eye. Many businesses such as agricultural orchards, fields, dairy farms and construction companies have become the equivalent of the speakeasies that thrived during the 1920s alcohol prohibition era. Labor agreements between employer and employees are simply done under the table, a shake of the hand or with a wink-wink sufficed. Many point to the H-2A visa program as an untapped option to bring in farm workers, but the rules are onerous and burdensome. Farmers have to prove to the Labor Department that they tried to hire U.S. workers but were unsuccessful in recruiting willing workers. They have to provide transportation of guest workers from their home country, offer housing and provide three meals a day. Then somehow, they also have to show their guest workers won t depress local wages. The list of rules and conditions to remain in compliance goes on. Our immigration laws were not always that bureaucratic and arcane. They were simple rules that encouraged people to come here . The truth is, Americas growth depend ed equally on attracting low-skilled and high-skilled labor. It was the recipe that worked for America, that is, until recently, when severely restrictive immigration laws were passed to keep people out. Where once
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America lifted its golden lamp to the tired and the poor, the huddle masses and the wretched refuse yearning to breath free, it now shuts its doors to them. Well, at least it has tried to. What we need is an immigration policy that is smart, effective, and market based. That is, we must seek a system that remedies the issues I stated above and legalizes the relationship between the private sector and the individuals they need to hire in order for employers to make profit and allow them to generate the wealth and economic opportunities for their communities. Further, our new immigration system must be more focused on recognizing the important characteristics that will help rebuild the American economy and strengthen American families. One that reduces backlogs in the family and employment visa categories so that future immigrants view our future legal immigration system as the exclusive means for entry into the United States. To be more specific, for our nation to maintain its global competitive advantage and assure long-term economic growth, we must advance long-term, market-driven immigration reform consisting of four essential elements: employment-based program, passing a bill similar to the DREAM Act, raise limits on the STEM program and improved border security. Smart immigration reform would lead to more American jobs, but red tape and bureaucracy is discouraging U.S.-educated foreign workers from living or starting businesses in this country. The Partnership for a New American Economy found that 40 percent of the 2010 Fortune 500 companies were founded by immigrants or their children, and even the president himself concluded that nearly a quarter of U.S. technology companies have an immigrant founder. We need immigration reform that reinforces the American Dream by encouraging and enabling the best and the brightest, regardless of their nation of origin, to launch businesses right here in the United States, a kind of pro-growth policy that would ignite a more robust economic recovery, create jobs, and chart a course to a more prosperous future. However the bill takes shape, leadership and bipartisanship will be the two essential virtues in this plight -rarely exhibited lately- necessary for it to pass muster. A tip of the hat to Senator Marco Rubio for stepping out on this one, its not easy to stand your ground in the face of such ardent opposition from your own. What is more, this time he got the better of President
recent previous attempts to achieve immigration have been derailed as a result of political posturing on
Obama by announcing his immigration plan first. A hard lesson he learned when the President pre-empted his own version of the Dream Act in last years election cycle. Still,
both sides of the aisle. And while the political timing seems ideal this time around, I've been around Washington too long to make any bets action is inevitable. This is where our voice comes in. Now is the time for Americans to express
their desire for reform and let Congress know there will be more to lose than to gain if either side allows this opportunity for reform to pass us by.
Nothing makes passage inevitable The policy still has to be formed Khody Akhavi, 2-9-2013 Al Jazeera's White House producer, based in Washington, 29-13, [Strange bedfellows in Washington,
http://blogs.aljazeera.com/blog/americas/strange-bedfellows-washington]
of the overtures made by previous critics of reform, nor the statistics promise that a bill will pass, nor that the discussion won't descend into another political brawl if the debate continues into
Let's be clear: none mid-term elections two years from now. The president and the senate have each presented their vision of a pathway to citizenship. Republicans in the House are largely opposed to any talk of citizenship, but have recently indicated they are willing to consider an approach that provides legal residency. The rhetoric on illegal immigrants is shifting, but it's too early to tell whether the policy will too. But in Washington politics make strange bedfellows, and if the positive buzz surrounding the reform efforts is any indication, the clich won't die anytime soon. Here's hoping neither will the efforts to fix the broken system a point on which all
sides are so far willing to
agree.
(--) Uniqueness wont overwhelm the linkmany problems could derail the bill: Daniel Gonzlez, 2/3/2013 (staff writer, Paths to immigration reform will be bumpy,
and a bipartisan group of eight senators have set the stage for Congress to pass comprehensive immigration reform this year. But passing a broad bill that addresses all aspects of immigration as Obama and the bipartisan group have proposed is fraught with obstacles, any one of which could derail the entire bill, as it did the last time Congress tried to tackle comprehensive immigration reform.
(--) A bipartisan agreement in the House is imminent, but passage isnt assured it could easily get derailed Becker and Berman 2/8/2013 (Bernie Becker and Russell Berman, The Hill, House
group 'on the cusp' of deal on immigration reform, http://thehill.com/blogs/blogbriefing-room/news/281987-house-group-on-the-cusp-of-deal-on-immigrationreform#ixzz2KLrlGYxv)
A bipartisan House group working on immigration is on the cusp of an agreement, a senior House
Democrat participating in the talks said Friday. Rep. Xavier Becerra (Calif.), the chairman of the House Democratic Caucus, told reporters that lawmakers on both sides of the aisle were being pragmatic about the issue, and that he was hopeful the Senate would also deliver on legislation soon. The reality is that we are on the cusp of actually having an opportunity to put forward a bipartisan proposal in the House o f Representatives, Becerra said at a news conference capping off the House Democrats annual retreat I am optimistic that the conversations will bear fruit.
But make no mistake, there are voices out there that would love nothing more than to destroy ... the progress. Becerra would not say whether the group hoped to release legislation next week in conjunction with
President Obama's State of the Union address, which had been a target for the coalition. He said only that conversations are continuing. The
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bipartisan House group also includes Reps. John Carter (R-Texas), Mario Diaz-Balart (R-Fla.), Luis Gutirrez (D-Ill.), Sam Johnson (R-Texas) and Zoe Lofgren (Calif.). A Senate group that includes Marco Rubio (R-Fla.), John McCain (R-Ariz.), Dick Durbin (D-Ill.) and Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.) has already announced immigration reform principles, and is hoping to release legislation in March. Obama stressed during his appearance before House Democrats that he was committed to making changes to both immigration and gun control policies. Now, is the time, Obama said Thursday. I recognize that the politics arent always easy. House Democratic leaders also stressed at their wrap-up news conference that they would not take their eyes off the economy and deficits while working on guns and immigration. That subject permeated our entire discussion, said House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.). The global economic challenges that we all face, and the leadership role of America.
(--) Immigration reform bill will be fragilethere will be tough votes: EMILY DERUY, 1/30/2013 (staff writer, Gang of Eight Accelerates Immigration
Reform Pace, http://abcnews.go.com/ABC_Univision/Politics/gang-acceleratesimmigration-reform-pace/story?id=18354593, Accessed 1/30/2013, rwg)
The group also talked Tuesday night about how to go about giving citizenship to undocumented residents while still being fair to immigrants who came into the country legally. Schumer said the gang plans to meet every Tuesday and
Thursday, and their staffs will meet every Wednesday. The senators want to go through the committee process, he said, adding that the process has become all too rare in Congress. He added that Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) has
said that he will make putting the bill on the upper chamber's floor a priority when the group is ready, likely this spring. "This is going to be fragile," McCain said, adding that the group "will have to take tough votes " to keep a bill intact.
(--) Failure to find consensus on even one issue could kill the immigration reform push: Daniel Gonzlez, 2/3/2013 (staff writer, Paths to immigration reform will be bumpy,
Add to the mix other contentious issues such as workplace enforcement, employer verification, and adjusting the future levels of legal immigrants, and passing a comprehensive immigration bill becomes even more complicated, she said. Failure to find consensus on even one of those issues could be enough to kill the entire push, despite the momentum. In 2007, even with the strong backing of President George W.
Bush and broad bipartisan support from veteran lawmakers including Sen. Edward Kennedy, D-Mass., and Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., the House refused to act on a bill passed by the Senate. The snag? What to do with the illegal immigrants then estimated to be 12million already in the country.
(--) Serious obstacles stand in the way of immigration reform: Sarahi Uribe, 1/22/2013 (staff writer, Immigration reform: Obama needs to close gap
between rhetoric and reality, http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree /2013/jan/22/immigration-reform-obama-rhetoric-reality, Accessed 1/24/2013, rwg)
When President Obama won re-election in large part due to the record number of Latinos who voted for him he renewed his promise for federal immigration reform, singling it out as the top priority for the upcoming legislative session. Though
federal legislation that provides a pathway to citizenship for the nation's 11 million undocumented residents is long overdue, serious obstacles stand in the way , including an obstructionist Congress and the president's
growing list of other legislative priorities.
(--) White House must convince the GOP to pass immigration reform: Elise Foley, 1/15/2013 (staff writer, Obama Gears Up For Immigration Reform Push
One key in the second term, advocates say, will be convincing skeptics such as Republican Sen. John Cornyn of Texas that the Obama administration held up its end of the bargain by proving a commitment to enforcement. The White House also needs to convince GOP lawmakers that there's support from
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their constituents for immigration reform, which could be aided by conservative evangelical leaders and members of the
business community who are pushing for a bill.
(--) Theres optimism, but no guaranteepast efforts at failed immigration reform prove it can come up short: Nancy Benac, 1/24/2013 (staff writer, Obama's uphill agenda,
http://www.detroitnews.com/article/20130124/OPINION01/301240324/1008/opinion01/ Obama-s-uphill-agenda, Accessed 1/24/2013, rwg)
Immigration offers Obama perhaps his best chance at a significant second-term achievement. The 2012 elections, in which Obama drew lopsided support from Hispanics, gave Republicans a wake-up call on their need to pay more attention to Latinos, so the GOP is more inclined to work with the president there than on other issues. The problem is incredibly complex, though, and past efforts at comprehensive change have failed . The question of how to deal with the estimated 11 million people illegally in the U.S. is the big sticking point.
(--) Amnesty will be a sticking point in the push for immigration reformObama needs to push past that: Elise Foley, 1/15/2013 (staff writer, Obama Gears Up For Immigration Reform Push
Citizenship will be another major question. Obama has consistently said that a path to citizenship is vital to immigration reform, and it will be a non-negotiable in his plan. It wouldn't be the "amnesty" decried by
some on the right. It would likely involve fines, English tests and "going to the back of the line," which means waiting for possibly a long, long time. But
that, like the argument that border security must be completed before immigration reform can take place, will be a sticking point.
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UQ: AT: Wont use PC on immigration

(--) Obama staking his political capital on reforming immigration: Collinson 2/14/2013, Stephen, Vow to ignite the economy, The Advertiser
(Australia), Lexis
US PRESIDENT Barack Obama crime,
has staked his second term political capital on a full-bore drive to cut gun
and ignite economic growth. In his annual State of the Union address yesterday, Mr Obama
reform the immigration system
referred only in passing to tense nuclear showdowns with North Korea and Iran, but pledged to bring half of US troops in Afghanistan home in a year. Grasping
for a note of optimism in still grim economic times, Mr Obama recalled how in his first term America had rebounded from the worst economic crisis in generations. ``Together, we have cleared away the
rubble of crisis, and can say with renewed confidence that the state of our union is stronger,'' he said in a speech punctuated by raucous cheers in the House of Representatives. The
address was Mr Obama's best chance to speak directly to Americans to build support for his plans after his November election win. ``A growing economy that creates good, middle-class jobs - that must
be the North Star that guides our efforts,'' he said. ``It is our generation's task, then, to reignite the true engine of America's economic growth - a rising, thriving middle class.''
(--) Obama focusing capital on immigration Benen 2/6 (Steve, Defining the 'extremes' in the immigration debate,
http://maddowblog.msnbc.com/_news/2013/02/06/16868677-defining-the-extremes-in-theimmigration-debate, CMR)
At the surface, there's
ample reason for optimism on comprehensive immigration reform. President Obama is investing considerable political capital into the issue; the public strongly supports the reform efforts; a bipartisan bill is already progressing in the Senate; and every Republican strategist and consultant is warning the party not to further alienate the fastest-growing voting constituency in the country.
(--) Obama will use political capital on immigration reform Kludt, 1/3/2013 ( Report: Obama To Make Push For Immigration Reform This Month
http://livewire.talkingpointsmemo.com/entry/report-obama-to-make-push-for-immigrationreform sjg) President Barack Obama is prepared to use his political capital to pursue immigration reform this month, according to a report published Wednesday in the Huffington Post. The report cited an anonymous official in the Obama
administration, who suggested that the president is unlikely to be deterred by the protracted fiscal cliff debate that will be revisited in the coming months. As such, the administration will reportedly move quickly on both immigration reform and gun control. The report also quoted an unnamed Senate Democratic aide, who gauged the likelihood of immigration reform to pass Congress. Citing the fiscal cliff deal that passed the House of Represenatives this week with a combination of Republican and Democratic votes, the aide expressed confidence that House Speaker John Boehner (R-OH) will be able to overcome expected opposition from the conservative wing of his caucus. "He
already did it with this fiscal issue, so I would not be surprised if when it came down to it he puts up a bill that he just allows to go through with a combination of Democratic and Republican votes, without worrying about a majority of the majority," the aide said.
76
UQ: AT: High-Skilled Inevitable/Piecemeal

(--) High skilled is intertwined with comprehensive reformneither can pass on its own: Sengupta 2/14/2013, Somini, Broad base pushes U.S. visa change; Need for skilled
workers has Silicon Valley aligned with immigration groups, The International Herald Tribune, Lexis
''The odds of high-skilled passing without comprehensive is close to zero , and the odds of comprehensive passing without high-skilled passing is close to zero,'' said Robert D. Atkinson, president of The Information Technology & Innovation Foundation, a nonpartisan research group based in Washington. A group of powerful Senate Republicans and Democrats have reached a long-elusive agreement on some basic principles of a ''comprehensive'' revamping of immigration law. Separately, a bipartisan bill introduced in the Senate in late January focuses
directly on the visa issue. The industry's argument for more so-called high-skilled visas has already persuaded the president. ''Real reform means fixing the legal immigration system to cut waiting periods, reduce bureaucracy, and attract the highly skilled entrepreneurs and engineers that will help create jobs and grow our economy,'' Mr. Obama said in his State of the Union speech Tuesday. In a speech in Las Vegas in January in which he introduced his own blueprint for overhauling immigration law, Mr. Obama
embraced the idea that granting more visas was essential to maintaining innovation and job growth. He talked about foreigners studying at American universities,
figuring out how to turn their ideas into businesses. In part, the new alliance between the technology industry and immigration groups derived from the 2012 elections and the rising influence of Hispanic voters. ''The world has changed since the election,'' said Peter J. Muller, director of government relations at Intel, pointing out that the defeat of many Republican candidates had led to a softening of the party's position on broad changes to immigration law. ''There is a focus on comprehensive. We're thrilled by it.'' ''At this point,'' he added, ''our
best hope for
immigration reform lies with comprehensive reform.'' Mr. Case, the AOL co-founder, who now runs an investment
fund, echoed that sentiment after meeting with the president last week . ''I look forward to doing whatever I can to help pass comprehensive immigration reform in the months ahead,'' he said, ''and ensure it includes strong provisions regarding high-skilled immigration, so we are positioned to win the global battle for talent.'' That sort of sentiment delights immigrants' rights advocates who have banged their heads against the wall for years to rally a majority in Congress around their agenda. ''The stars are aligning here,'' said Ali Noorani, executive director of the National Immigration Forum. ''You've got the politics of immigration reform changing. You've got tech leaders leaning in not just for high-skilled but for broader immigration reform.'' Senator Orrin G. Hatch, Republican of Utah, who is co-sponsoring the bill to increase the number of visas available for highly skilled immigrants, said the cooperation went both ways. ''All the talk about the STEM field - science, technology, engineering, mathematics - has awakened even those who aren't all that interested in the high-tech world,'' he said. While the
growing momentum has surprised many in Washington, comprehensive change is still not a sure thing,
especially in the Republican-controlled House. Mr. Hatch said he would push forward with his measure even if the broader efforts foundered. But his Democratic co-sponsor, Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota, said she would press for the bill to be part of the comprehensive package.
(--) Skilled workers tied to comprehensive reform, wont be addressed separately Higgins 2/6/2013 (John K. Higgins is a career business writer, with broad experience
for a major publisher in a wide range of topics including energy, finance, environment and government policy, Immigration Reform Could Open the Door for IT Talent, http://www.ecommercetimes.com/story/77241.html, CMR)
Congressional Hurdles and Outlook How
the bill fares in Congress may depend on how an overall
comprehensive package of immigration reforms is handled. "The Immigration Innovation Act could stand on its current political situation it is unlikely that immigration issues will be handled piecemeal," Bob Sakaniwa, associate director of advocacy at the American Immigration Lawyers Association, told the E-Commerce Times. "The better prospect is that it will be included within a comprehensive package and its fate will be tied to what Congress does on the overall immigration reform effort." The history of congressional immigration debates also indicates that the IT issue should be part of a comprehensive reform effort, LeDuc added. "As much as we might like, or it might seem practical to enact various reform initiatives independently, that's not a political reality at this time ." The momentum now exists for comprehensive immigration reform, and issues related to highly skilled workers have already made their way into bipartisan
own, but in the
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legislative language. "We
know that the attention of Congress will now be fully focused on achieving comprehensive reform and a complete bill in the next few months," Coffey said. "We're hoping that they succeed, and that's where our focus is."
Nope Democrats wont sign-off on piecemeal reform Song 2/5 (Kyung, Immigration committee examines skilled versus unskilled workers,
http://seattletimes.com/html/localnews/2020294802_immigrationhearingxml.html, CMR)
WASHINGTON Members of the House Judiciary Committee showed
a sharp partisan divide during a hearing on immigration Tuesday that sometimes seemed to pit high-skilled foreign workers against illegal immigrants and those admitted to the U.S. through family ties. A big portion of the hearing the first on immigration
this year focused on temporary H-1B visas for science and technology workers. Citing a shortage of qualified American engineers and programmers, Microsoft has been leading aggressive lobbying efforts to lift the cap on such foreign hires as well as for green cards allowing them to stay permanently. Many members of the panel expressed strong support
for creating more slots for high-tech talent. But Democrats largely swatted down Republicans suggestions to tackle that issue separately from possible citizenship for an estimated 11 million illegal immigrants and other thornier aspects of comprehensive immigration
reform being debated in Congress.
More ev dems wont agree Berman 2/5 (Russell, In first immigration hearing, House GOP seeks middle ground on
citizenship path, http://thehill.com/homenews/house/281187-in-first-immigration-hearinghouse-gop-seeks-middle-ground-on-citizenship-path, CMR)
Democrats on the committee used their time to reject a piecemeal approach , arguing that the complex issues in immigration reform could only be addressed together . The notion of a comprehensive immigration [bill] has been pushed around and bandied about, but the fact of the matter is this is one big challenge that I dont think we can handle on a piecemeal basis, said Rep. John Conyers (Mich.), the committees ranking Democrat.
78
UQ: AT: Obama is bluffing/not serious about IR

(--) Immigration will pass both sides currently working in good faith with Obama push Liptak 2/14/2013, Kevin, Obama warns Democrats he has immigration bill ready if
Congress doesnt act, CNN Wire, Lexis
On Wednesday, an aide to one of the Democratic senators said the lawmakers
told the president "they remain confident that a bipartisan bill could be agreed to in the coming weeks." "The Senators said the bipartisan negotiations were progressing well and that both sides were making progress and working together in good faith ," the aide said. In his State of the Union address Tuesday, Obama called on Congress to send him a comprehensive immigration reform package, saying both sides agree on what measures need to be included to make the
system work better.
79
UQ: AT: Second Term Presidents Cant Get Anything Done

(--) Obama overcomes criticisms of second term presidents Van Dusen former intl news editor in Washington, D.C. 2/10/2013 Lisa The truth
about second-term politics Ottawa Citizen http://www.ottawacitizen.com/opinion/truth+about+second+term+politics/7945084/story. html When Barack Obama delivers his fifth State of the Union address Tuesday, hell have two uninvited guests in the visitors gallery. One will be that myth of political capital and the other will be the unwritten lame-duck rule. The lame-duck rule is that every second-term president becomes a lame duck after 18
months or one year or the day after the midterms or the day after his second inaugural address, depending on whose lame-duck countdown clock you believe. Between
the shrinking political capital account and the lame-duck countdown clock, by some estimates Obama ceased to be the fully functioning, politically capitalized president of the United States last Wednesday between 11:15 and 11:45 a.m. Meanwhile, in the real world, second-term presidents have won world wars, won the Cold War, balanced the budget and generally continued to function while not only not entirely squandering their political capital but, in some cases, rebuilding it. In the real world, where Obama himself ostensibly spent all his political capital on health reform and was then re-elected handily, political capital is a much more fungible commodity. There are presidents who confound the laws of political capital and lame duckness just because of who they are. In Ronald Reagans case, this ability to magically repel conventional wisdom earned him the label Teflon president. Obama has already defied conventional wisdom and most unwritten laws of electoral politics, presidential campaigns, economic drag factors and identity politics, which makes the biggest second-term threat not political capital depreciation or lame duckdom, but
hubris.
80
UQ: Obama has capital now

Obama is strong politically in the present system. Julianna Goldman (staff writer) May 23, 2013. Retrieved May 29, 2013 from
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-05-24/obama-bully-pulpit-bullied-with-congress-probesobscuring-agenda.html
Because of the schedule, it would be difficult to give what his aides call a circuit-breaker speech before July 4. The calendar itself may help. Congress begins its Memorial Day recess next week. Obama travels to Northern Ireland and Berlin in mid-June and within days of returning will head off to Africa until July 3. For
now, hes buoyed by an improving economy, steady approval ratings and polls that show the American publics interest in the controversies are limited. The nations unemployment rate dropped to 7.5 percent in April from 7.9 percent at the beginning of the year. The stock market has risen to record highs, with the Standard & Poors 500 Index (SPX) up more than 15 percent this year. Americans are more interested in
reports about the economy than they are about the IRS, Benghazi or the Justice Departments actions, according to a survey re leased May 20 by the Pew Research Center. Affecting Agenda Still, while most Americans back Obamas job performance, an overwhelming majority say the probes will have an impact on his agenda. A USA Today poll released this week showed that 73 percent of Americans believe the IRS and Benghazi probes will make it more difficult for the president to accomplish his goals. Fifty-three
percent approve of the job hes doing, virtually unchanged from early April, according to a CNN/ORC International poll.
Current scandals are not affecting Obamas political strength. NBC News, May 23, 2013. Retrieved May 29, 2013 from
http://firstread.nbcnews.com/_news/2013/05/23/18443846-obama-agenda-changing-the-tone-ondrones?lite
The economy is recovering, the White House is dealing with multiple controversies, and President Barack Obama appears generally unaffected either way, AP writes. Several recent polls show the president sustaining an overall approval rating around 50 percent, with no major uptick from
gains in housing, jobs and the stock market, and no downtick from the recent storms over the terror attack in Benghazi, Libya, the targeting of conservative groups by the IRS and a leak investigations that has swept up the phone records of Associated Press journalists. The data suggests the economy could be insulating Obama from the immediate troubles confronting his administration. But it also indicates that while a growing number of those surveyed are more optimistic about the economy, they are evenly split on whether they approve or disapprove of his handling of it.
Obamas approval rating is above 50% now. Aliyah Frumin, (staff writer) May 24, 2013. Retrieved May 29, 2013 from
http://tv.msnbc.com/2013/05/24/the-week-that-was-obama-tries-to-refocus-on-legislativeagenda/ Even with the human rights questions that remained unanswered, the national security speech was a strong performance. Obamawith his speech about race and Rev. Wright, his defense of just wars when he accepted the Nobel Peace Prizehas shown an ability to communicate complex ideas to the public with nuance and authority. He is also apparently benefiting from
optimism about the economy: despite the messy week, Obamas approval rating stayed above 50%.
Obamas approval ratings remain stable---other polls are outliers Ariel Edwards-Levy (staff writer for the Huffington Post) June 19, 2013. Retrieved June 27,
2013 from http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/06/19/obama-approval-rating_n_3467378.html
President Barack Obama's public standing has remained relatively steady over the last month, according to a Pew Research poll released Wednesday, although most Americans disapprove of
81
Politics DA/Answers SUDI 2013 how he handles privacy and civil liberties issues. The Pew poll puts his approval rating at 49 percent, down from 51 percent in May, consistent with other recent polling. While a CNN poll found that Obama's approval had dropped 8 points since May, most surveys show the president's ratings remaining stable amid recent controversies over National Security Agency surveillance. In an average of polls taken last week, Obama's approval ratings dipped about 2 points. HuffPost Pollster's chart, which combines all publicly available polling, puts Obama's average approval
just below 47 percent, down from 48 percent in May and 51 percent at the beginning of 2013.
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Links
83
Links: Cuba Embargo

Lifting the Cuban embargo requires overcoming half a century of political paralysis. Joel Brinkley (staff writer) Dec. 18, 2012. Retrieved May 29, 2013 from
http://www.politico.com/story/2012/12/cuba-embargo-isnt-working-but-isnt-going-away85281.html
Now an argument can be made that if the half-century of political paralysis on this issue can be overcome, both Cuba and the United States would benefit. American tourists would most likely pour into Cuba, buying
cigars, staying in beachfront hotels spending money in the Cuban economy. And American businesses would find an eager new market for a range of products beyond the food and medicine they are already authorized to sell. We cannot afford an obsolete ideological war against Cuba, Richard Slatta, a history professor at North Carolina State University who specializes in Latin America, wrote in an o p-ed last month. The embargo against Cuba denies North Carolina businesses and farmers access to a major, proximate market. Cuba experts say many business leaders, particularly, are making the same case, especially now that the American economy has remained in the doldrums for so long. They add that its an obvious second-term issue; Obama doesnt have to worry about winning Florida again. But for so many people in Washington, Cuba doesnt matter any more now, said Ted Piccone, deputy director for foreign policy at the Brookings Institu tion and a former National Security Council official. Theres no political incentive to change the policy even though the arguments for changing it are rife. Despite ample provocation, the U.S. doesnt impose similar embargoes on other authoritarian states.
Presidential leadership is needed to lift the Cuban embargo. Peter Swanson, (executive editor of PassageMaker magazine) Jan. 16, 2013. Retrieved May
29, 2013 from http://blog.soundingsonline.com/2013/01/16/end-the-embargo/
For the embargo to end, we need presidential leadership . The Helms-Burton Act, which keeps this Cold War construct in place, can only be undone by another act of Congress. As anyone who has been alive for the past four years knows, between the partisanship and the payola, our House and Senate are unlikely to accomplish anything, absent strong presidential leadership . Without re-
election to worry about, Obama is well poised to bring about peace with our neighbor. Nixon went to China. McCain went back to Hanoi. All of us should be able to go to Cuba.
Washingtons leading politicians all favor the embargo. Jess Hunter-Bowman (Associate Director of Witness for Peace) Apr. 2, 2012. Retrieved May
29, 2013 from http://otherwords.org/our_failed_cuba_policy_fixation/ Mitt Romney seemed to suggest that he would sanction an assassination attempt against Fidel Castro. If Im fortunate to become the next president of the United States it is my expectation that Fidel Castro will finally be taken off this planet, he said. And while President Barack
Obama has courageously rolled back some travel and humanitarian restrictions on U.S. citizens and Cuban-Americans, he too has stated his continued support of the embargo. Why, in an era of unprecedented partisanship gridlock, is there such widespread support among Washingtons leading politicians for an outdated and inhumane embargo?
Powerful lobbies support the embargo. Jess Hunter-Bowman (Associate Director of Witness for Peace) Apr. 2, 2012. Retrieved May
29, 2013 from http://otherwords.org/our_failed_cuba_policy_fixation/
The reason Washington is so head-over-heels in love with this Cold-War-era failure speaks more to whats wrong with Washington than whats wrong with Cuba. An entrenched special interest group the well-heeled Cuban-American lobby has scared both major political parties into believing they must toe the line on the embargo or lose Florida.
84
Lifting travel restrictions to Cuba is opposed by Congress. Peter Swanson, (executive editor of PassageMaker magazine) Jan. 16, 2013. Retrieved May
29, 2013 from http://blog.soundingsonline.com/2013/01/16/end-the-embargo/
Ironically, some of the biggest opponents of travel freedom represent the state that would likely benefit the most from normal relations two of the most prominent being Florida U.S. Rep.
Ileana Ros-Lehtinen and Florida U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio. These two Republicans are among the true believers, but they are reinforced by a posse of congress people around the country who take
Cuban-American campaign contributions like hogs at a trough.
CUBAN AMERICAN HAWKS HOLD DISPROPORTIONATE POLITICAL CLOUT. Andres Cala, (energy expert), ENERGY TRIBUNE, July 7, 2011. Retrieved Apr. 21, 2013
from http://www.energytribune.com/8204/drill-cuba-drill
Seriously? Will Cuban-American hawks with disproportional political clout impose their outdated Cold War mentality that has harmed US interests at least as much as the Castro regime? The vast
majority of Americans, including Republicans, frankly stopped caring about Cuba decades ago and even a majority of the mostly Floridian Cuban community now favors more rapprochement to influence an unstoppable democratic transition in Cuba.
THE REPUBLICAN MAJORITY STILL SUPPORTS THE CUBAN EMBARGO. THE ECONOMIST, Jan. 20, 2011. Retrieved Apr. 21, 2013 from
http://www.economist.com/node/17967074
The broader economic embargo against Cuba stands. Only Congress can scrap it, and many in the new Republican majority still support it. But the administration has taken a further step in
reversing George Bushs tightening of the embargo.
Cuba-hating lobby will block all legislation-empirics prove Leogrande 13 (William M. professor in the department of government at American
University's School of Public Affairs in Washington, D.C. For Foreign Policy. The Cuba Lobby http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2013/04/11/the_cuba_lobby_jay_z?page=0,2&wp_login_ redirect=0)
Today, moderate Cuban-Americans have managed to carve out greater space for political debate about U.S. relations with Cuba as attitudes in the community have changed -- a result of both the passing of the old exile generation of the 1960s and the arrival of new immigrants who want to maintain ties with family they left behind. But a network of right-wing radio stations and right-wing bloggers still routinely vilifies moderates by name, branding anyone who favors dialogue as a spy for Castro. The modus operandi is the same as the China Lobby's in the 1950s: One antiCastro crusader makes dubious accusations of espionage, often based on guilt by association, which the others then repeat ad nauseam, citing one other as proof. Like the China Lobby before it, the
Cuba Lobby has also struck fear into the heart of the foreignpolicy bureaucracy. The congressional wing of the Cuba Lobby, in concert with its friends in the executive branch, routinely punishes career civil servants who don't toe the line. One of the Cuba Lobby's early targets was John J. "Jay" Taylor, chief of the U.S. Interests Section in Havana, who was given an unsatisfactory annual evaluation report in 1988 by Republican stalwart Elliott Abrams, then assistant secretary of state for inter-American affairs, because Taylor reported from Havana that the Cubans were serious about wanting to negotiate peace in southern Africa and Central America.
"CANF had close contact with the Cuban desk, which soon turned notably unfriendly toward my reporting from post and it seemed toward me personally," Taylor recalled in an oral history interview. "Mas and the
Castro."
foundation soon assumed that I was too soft on The risks of crossing the Cuba Lobby were not lost on other foreign-policy professionals. In
1990, Taylor was in Washington to consult about the newly launched TV Mart, which the Cuban government was jamming so completely that
85

Cubans on the island dubbed it, "la TV que no se ve" ("No-see TV"). But TV Mart's patrons in Washington blindly insisted that the vast majority of the Cuban population was watching the broadcasts. Taylor invited the U.S. Information Agency officials responsible for TV Mart to come to Cuba to see for themselves. "Silence prevailed around the table," he recalled. "I don't think anyone there really believed TV Mart signals were being received in Cuba. It was a Kafkaesque moment, a true Orwellian experience, to see a room full of grown, educated men and women so afraid for their jobs or their political positions that they could take part in such a charade ."
In 1993, the Cuba Lobby opposed the appointment of President Bill Clinton's first choice to be assistant secretary of state for inter-American affairs, Mario Baeza, because he had once visited Cuba. According to Stone, fearful of the Cuba Lobby's political clout, Clinton dumped Baeza. Two years later, Clinton caved in to the Cuba Lobby's demand that he fire National Security Council official Morton Halperin, who was the architect of the successful 1995 migration accord with Cuba that
created a safe, legal route for Cubans to emigrate to the United States. One chief of the U.S. diplomatic mission in Cuba told me he stopped sending sensitive cables to the State Department altogether because they so often leaked to Cuba Lobby supporters in Congress. Instead, the diplomat flew to Miami so he could report to the department by telephone. During
George W. Bush's administration, the Cuba Lobby completely captured the State Department's Latin America bureau (renamed the Bureau of
Western Hemisphere Affairs). Bush's first assistant secretary was Otto Reich, a Cuban-American veteran of the Reagan administration and favorite of Miami hard-liners. Reich had run Reagan's "public diplomacy" operation demonizing opponents of the president's Central America policy as communist sympathizers. Reich hired as his deputy Dan Fisk, former staff assistant to Senator Helms and author of the Cuban Liberty and Democratic Solidarity Act. Reich was followed by Roger Noriega, another former Helms staffer, who explained that Bush's policy was aimed at destabilizing the Cuban regime: "We opted for change even if it meant chaos. The Cubans had had too much stability over de cades. Chaos was necessary in order to change reality." In
2002, Bush's undersecretary for arms control and international security, John Bolton, made the dubious charge that Cuba was developing biological weapons. When the national intelligence officer for Latin America, Fulton Armstrong, (along with other intelligence community analysts) objected to this mischaracterization of the community's assessment, Bolton and Reich tried repeatedly to have him fired. The Cuba
Lobby began a steady drumbeat of charges that Armstrong was a Cuban agent because his and the community's analysis disputed the Bush team's insistence that the Castro regime was fragile and wouldn't survive the passing of its founder. The 2001 arrest for espionage of the Defense Intelligence Agency's top Cuba analyst, Ana Montes, heightened the Cuba Lobby's hysteria over traitors in government in the same way that the spy cases of the 1950s -- Alger Hiss and the Amerasia magazine affair -- gave the China Lobby ammunition. Armstrong
was
subjected to repeated and intrusive security investigations, all of which cleared him of wrongdoing. (He completed a
four-year term as national intelligence officer and received a prestigious CIA medal recognizing his service when he left the agency in 2008.)
Senate Republicans block Cuba legistlation Leogrande 13 (William M. professor in the department of government at American
University's School of Public Affairs in Washington, D.C. For Foreign Policy. The Cuba Lobby http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2013/04/11/the_cuba_lobby_jay_z?page=0,2&wp_login_ redirect=0)
When Obama was elected president, promising a "new beginning" in relations with Havana, the Cuba Lobby relied on its congressional wing to stop him. Sen. Robert Menendez (D-N.J.), the senior CubanAmerican Democrat in Congress and now chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, vehemently opposes any opening to Cuba. In March 2009, he signaled his willingness to defy both his president and his party to get his way.
Menendez voted with Republicans to block passage of a $410 billion omnibus appropriations bill (needed to keep the government running) because it relaxed the requirement that Cuba pay in advance for food purchases from U.S. suppliers and eased restrictions on travel to the island.
To get Menendez to relent, Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner had to promise in writing that the administration would consult Menendez on any change in U.S. policy toward Cuba. Senate
Republicans also blocked confirmation of Arturo Valenzuela as Obama's assistant secretary for Western Hemisphere affairs until November 2009. With the bureau managed in the interim by Bush holdovers, no one was pushing from below to carry out Obama's new Cuba policy. After Valenzuela stepped down in 2012, Senator Rubio (R-Fla.), whose father left Cuba in the 1950s, held up confirmation of Valenzuela's replacement, Roberta Jacobson, until the administration agreed to tighten restrictions on educational travel to Cuba, undercutting Obama's stated policy of increasing people-to-people engagement. When
Obama nominated career Foreign Service officer Jonathan Farrar to be ambassador to Nicaragua, the Cuba Lobby denounced him as soft on communism. During his previous posting as chief of the U.S. diplomatic mission in Havana, Farrar had reported to Washington that Cuba's traditional dissident movement had very little appeal to ordinary Cubans. Menendez and Rubio teamed up to give Farrar a verbal beating during his confirmation hearing for carrying out Obama's policy of engaging the Cuban government rather than simply antagonizing it. When they blocked Farrar's confirmation, Obama withdrew the nomination, sending Farrar as ambassador to Panama instead. Their point made, Menendez and
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Rubio did not object.
The Cuba Lobby's power to derail diplomatic careers is common knowledge among
foreign-policy professionals . Throughout Obama's first term, midlevel State Department officials cooperated more closely and
deferred more slavishly to congressional opponents of Obama's Cuba policy than to supporters like John Kerry, the new secretary of state who served at the time as Senate Foreign Relations Committee chairman. When Senator Kerry tried to get the State Department and USAID to reform the Bush administration's democracy-promotion programs in 2010, he ran into more opposition from the bureaucracy than from Republicans. If
Obama intends to finally keep the 2008 campaign promise to take a new direction in relations with Cuba, the job can't be left to foreign-policy bureaucrats, who are so terrified of the Cuba Lobby that they continue to
believe, or pretend to believe, absurdities -- that Cubans are watching TV Mart, for instance, or that Cuba is a state sponsor of terrorism. Only a determined president and a tough secretary of state can drive a new policy through a bureaucratic wasteland so paralyzed by fear and inertia.
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Links: Mexico
The Tea Party will oppose increasing free trade with Mexico. Jessica Hughes, (staff writer) Dec. 8, 2010. Retrieved May 29, 2013 from
http://www.thefoundersalliance.org/main/?p=403
61% of those in the Tea Party said they too believed free trade is harmful to the U.S. Now the
wording of the poll is not clear, so it is uncertain whether these respondents actually oppose free trade of just free trade agreements like NAFTA. It is important that we understand the difference
to avoid our passions and prejudices being harnessed by smooth-talking politicos in order to further their own big government-big business collaboration against the people.
The Tea Party opposes agreements like NAFTA. Daniel Sayani, (staff writer) June 17, 2011. Retrieved May 29, 2013 from
http://www.tradereform.org/tag/nafta/
Free trade agreements are unpopular. Tom Piatak (staff writer) Oct. 11, 2010. Retrieved May 29, 2013 from
Error! Bookmark not defined.
http://www.chroniclesmagazine.org/2010/10/11/support-for-free-trade-plummets/ On October 2, 2010, the Wall Street Journal ran an article detailing the results of the most recent NBC/Wall Street Journal poll. The article was entitled "Americans Sour on Trade," but what
Americans are really souring on is free trade : 53% of Americans now say that free trade agreements have hurt the United States, with less than 10% saying they have helped. The tea party is even more opposed to free trade than the general public, with 61% of tea party supporters saying that free trade agreements have hurt America.
The Tea Party opposes free trade. Noah Kristula-Green, (staff writer) Nov. 10, 2010. Retrieved May 29, 2013 from
http://www.frumforum.com/tea-partys-new-target-free-trade/
Now though, these accusations are taking place in an environment of increasing American skepticism of international trade. An NBC poll released in September of 2010 showed 61% of Tea Partiers agreeing that free trade has hurt the United States.
The GOP is hostile to free trade. Noah Kristula-Green, (staff writer) Nov. 10, 2010. Retrieved May 29, 2013 from
In the same way that an older GOP electorate has made the party more deferential to defending Medicare, it may also lead to more hostility to free trade agreements.
Republicans and the Tea Party will oppose increased free trade. Noah Kristula-Green, (staff writer) Nov. 10, 2010. Retrieved May 29, 2013 from
If the increasingly hostile Tea Party base is turning the GOP into the party of Medicare, will it also turn them into the party of protectionism? The Republican hostility to the presidents recent trip to India suggests this is a real threat and new polling numbers bear this out. A new Pew Poll released on November 9th showed that 54% of Republicans and 63% of Tea Partiers believe that free trade agreements are bad for America. This is higher than the numbers for both Democrats
(35%) and independents (46%). 88
EFFORTS TO EXPAND FREE TRADE WILL BE OPPOSED BY THE PUBLIC. Pew Research Center, Nov. 9, 2010. Retrieved Apr. 28, 2013 from http://www.peoplepress.org/2010/11/09/public-support-for-increased-trade-except-with-south-korea-and-china/
More generally, there is increased skepticism about the impact of trade agreements such as NAFTA
and the policies of the World Trade Organization.Roughly a third (35%) say that free trade agreements have been good for the United States, while 44% say they have been bad for the U.S. Support for free trade agreements is now at one of its lowest points in 13 years of Pew Research Center surveys. In 2008, an identical percentage (35%) said free trade agreements were good for the U.S. Support for free trade agreements had increased last year, to 44% in April and 43% in November, despite the struggling economy. As in past surveys on trade, many more Americans
say free trade agreements have a negative rather than a positive impact on jobs in the U.S., wages for U.S. workers, and economic growth in this country. And more say their personal finances have been hurt (46%) rather than helped (26%) by free trade agreements. The latest national survey
by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, conducted Nov. 4-7 among 1,255 adults, finds that just 28% of Republicans say that free trade agreements are good for the United States, down from 43% last November. Opinions among Democrats and independents have changed little over the past year.
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Links: Venezuela
EFFORTS TO ENGAGE A POST CHAVEZ VENEZUELA WILL BE OPPOSED BY REPUBLICANS. Julian Pecquet, (staff writer), Mar. 26, 2013. Retrieved Apr. 28, 2013 from
http://thehill.com/blogs/global-affairs/americas/290225-us-lawmaker-seeks-rapprochement-withpost-chavez-venezuelaMeeks said he's waiting to see if the April 14 election is free and fair. If that's the case, he hopes to revive a bipartisan legislative exchange group that was disbanded after the Venezuelan opposition boycotted the 2005 elections, losing their seats. The now-defunct Boston Group brought together a handful of U.S. lawmakers including Meeks and former Reps. Bill Delahunt (D-Mass.) and Cass Ballenger (R-N.C.) alongside Chavistas and opposition members. The
meetings paved the way for deals through which the Venezuelan oil company provided cheap heating oil to low-income people in the northeastern United States. The group once met for a week
in former Sen. Ted Kennedy's (D-Mass.) compound in Hyannis Port, Mass. as well as at Ballenger's home, Meeks said. It included Nicols Maduro, the acting president who's largely expected to win next month. Meeks faces an uphill battle. Last week, Maduro's government
broke off talks with U.S. diplomats to renew full diplomatic relations, which have been suspended since 2010, accusing the Obama administration of meddling in next month's election. This line of communication is now suspended, postponed until the United States gives a clear message about what kind of relationship they want, Venezuelan Foreign Minister Elas Jaua said. And several Republicans openly welcomed Chavez's death. The former chairwoman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R-Fla.), for her part called Obama's decision to send a delegation weak and irresponsible.
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Focus Links
OBAMAS AGENDA IS FINITE FOCUS IS KEY PLAN DERAILS THE AGENDA.
CSMonitor 9. [March 12 lexis] The Obama administration itself has not hidden the fact that it sees a limited window to enact its agenda, almost like a game of "beat the clock." As long as Obama's job approval ratings are comfortably high - currently in the 60s in major polls - he has the political capital to address the pent-up demand for change that is inevitable when the opposition party takes over from an unpopular previous administration. But, there's only so much a White House and Congress can accomplish, given the deliberative nature of the process, and even members of Obama's own party are raising warning flags about the magnitude of the new president's agenda.
PRESIDENTIAL FOCUS IS KEY TO GETTING THE AGENDA PLAN IS A SURPRISE DERAILING THE AGENDA
GOMES 8. [11-10 Jim, columnist, A climate plan in peril? Boston Globe -http://www.boston.com/lifestyle/green/articles/2008/11/10/a_climate_plan_in_peril/] A budget out of balance and a populace more worried about the economic present than our atmospheric future does not bode well for global
An agenda crowded with critical items an economy in recession, wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, the continuing mortgage meltdown, healthcare - awaits our newly elected leaders. There are only so many priorities that an administration and Congress can focus on , and they will need to make choices on how to use their initial honeymoon period and their finite supply of political capital.
warming emerging as a top-tier issue in the early days of the new administration.
PRESIDENTIAL FOCUS KEY AGENDA PLAN TRADES OFF.

ANDRES 00. [Gary, president for legislative affairs in the Bush Administration, Presidential Studies Quarterly, September -- lexis]
The constraint of "time" is another trade-off the White House mustmanage. Members of Congress regularly criticize the White House for only being able to focus on one single issue at a time, a trait common to the White House legislative office that routinely works this way during major legislative battles, focusing its attention to winning a key vote on the House or Senate floor, and disposing of it before moving on to another project.
Congress, with its diverse committee system and decentralized power structure, processes a variety of issues simultaneously. A typical legislative day might find two or three keyissues on the floor, leadership meetings about the agenda for the following week, and a half a dozen critical markups in committees. Given all the issues Congress can present to the president and the limited number of hours in a day or week, it is critical how the White House prioritizes. The White House must decide which issues to get involved with and which to ignore or delegate to others within the administration. The resolution of these choices and the trade-offs ultimatelyshape the White House-congressional agenda.
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Focus key to passing the presidents agenda.

EDWARDS AND BARRETT 00. [George & Andrew, distinguished professor of political science @ A&M, assistant lecturer/PhD Candidate in political science @ A&M, Polarized Politics: Congress and the President in a Partisan Era, ed Bond and Fleisher p 110] In addition, the White House wants to ensure that its proposals compete favorably with other proposals on the agenda. If presidents cannot focus Congresss attention on their priority
programs , the programs will get lost in the complex and overloaded legislative process . Moreover,
presidents and their staff have the time and energy to lobby effectively for only a few bills at a time, and the presidents political capital is inevitably limited. As a result, presidents wish to focus on advancing their own initiatives rather than opposing or modifying the proposals of others. Thus, the White House not only wants its initiatives to be on the congressional agenda but also prefers to have fewer congressional initiatives with which it must deal.
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Internal Links
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Internal Links: Political Capital

PRESIDENT OBAMAS POLITICAL CAPITAL IS KEY TO IMMIGRATION REFORM. Gary Martin, (staff writer), Mar. 28, 2013. Retrieved Apr. 28, 2013 from
http://www.ctpost.com/local/article/Immigration-reform-gaining-support-in-Congress4393187.php Immigration reform gaining support in Congress, Accessed 4/24/2013, rwg)
WASHINGTON -- A Republican Party in desperate search for relevance to Latino voters. An expanded Democratic advantage in the Senate. A second-term President with his legacy on the line. Does all that add up to enough to break decades of impasse and produce comprehensive immigration reform? As expectations -- and tensions -- rise, the answer won't be long in coming. A bipartisan bill could be filed in the Senate as early as next week, followed in relatively short order by a House bill, also crafted by a bipartisan group, aiming at a compromise on the key issue of citizenship. The
efforts are being applauded by President Barack Obama, who is using every ounce of his
political clout to try to get comprehensive reform. Obama said the time has come "to work up the political courage to do what's required to be done." "I expect a bill to be put forward. I expect a debate to begin next
month. I want to sign that bill into law as soon as possible," Obama said at a White House naturalization ceremony. In addition to the issue of eventual citizenship for 11 million undocumented immigrants, Congress is expected to address the need for temporary or guest worker programs. Congress last passed comprehensive bipartisan reform legislation in 1986, when President Ronald Reagan signed a law that granted citizenship to several million undocumented immigrants and created a guest worker program. Up until now, Republicans have opposed citizenship programs as an "amnesty" for lawbreakers who entered the country illegally, and labor has chafed at guest worker programs. But Republican
losses in the 2012 elections and increased public support for reform have many in the GOP talking compromise. "If there is one issue that the two parties could produce something meaningful on in this Congress, it would be immigration," said Stephen Hess, a political expert at The Brookings Institution. Hess said an
eventual bill "will have lots of provisos, and it will go back and forth, but it would be hard not to produce something given the general feeling that something has to be produced." More and more Republicans are moving toward immigration-reform measures as the party seeks to reach out to Latinos, the nation's largest -- and growing -- minority voting bloc.
POLITICAL CAPITAL IS CRITICAL TO IMMIGRATION REFORMOBAMA MUST PLAY THE ROLE OF A STATESMAN. Elise Foley, (staff writer), Jan. 15, 2013. Retrieved Apr. 28, 2013 from
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/01/15/obama-immigration-reform_n_2463388.html, Accessed 4/24/2013, rwg)
Obama has repeatedly said he will push hard for immigration reform in his second term, and
administration officials have said that other contentious legislative initiatives -- including gun control and the debt ceiling -- won't be allowed to get in the way. At least at first glance, he seems to have politics on his side. GOP lawmakers are entering -- or, in some cases, re-entering -- the immigration debate in the wake of disastrous results for their party's presidential nominee with Latino voters, who support reform by large measures. Based on those new political realities, "it would be a suicidal impulse for Republicans in Congress to continue to block [reform]," David Axelrod, a longtime adviser to the president, told The Huffington Post. Now
there's the question of how Obama gets there. While confrontation might work with Republicans on other issues -- the debt ceiling, for example -- the consensus is that the GOP is serious enough about reform that the president can, and must, play the role of broker and statesman to get a deal. It starts with a lesson from his first term. Republicans have demanded that the border be secured first, before
other elements of immigration reform. Yet the administration has been by many measures the strictest ever on immigration enforcement, and devotes massive sums to policing the borders. The White House has met many of the desired metrics for border security, although there is always more to be done, but Republicans are still calling for more before they will consider reform. Enforcing the border, but not sufficiently touting its record of doing so, the White House has learned, won't be enough to win over Republicans. In a briefing with The Huffington Post, a senior administration official said the White House believes it has met enforcement goals and must now move to a comprehensive solution. The administration is highly skeptical of claims from Republicans that immigration reform can or should be done in a piecemeal fashion. Going down that road, the White House worries, could result in passage of the less politically complicated pieces, such as an enforcement mechanism and high-skilled worker visas, while leaving out more contentious items such as a pathway to citizenship for undocumented immigrants. "Enforcement is certainly part of the picture," the official said. "But if you go back and look at the 2006 and 2007 bills, if you go back and look at John McCain's 10-point 'This is what I've got to get done before I'm prepared to talk about immigration,' and then you look at what we're actually doing, it's like 'check, check, check.' We're there. The border is as secure as it's been in a generation or two, so it's really time." One
key in the second term, advocates say, will be convincing skeptics such as Republican Sen. John Cornyn of Texas that the Obama administration held up its end of the bargain by proving a commitment to enforcement.
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Obama needs political capital to finish the immigration deal Hindustan Times June 11, 2013. Retrieved June 25, 2013 from
http://www.hindustantimes.com/world-news/Americas/Obama-back-in-fray-on-immigrationreform/Article1-1074774.aspx
US President Barack Obama made an outspoken pitch for a Senate bill on comprehensive immigration reform on Tuesday, branding those opposed to it insincere about fixing a badly broken system. Obama has gently pushed the bill from behind the scenes for months, fearing his open support would swell the ranks of conservatives who see the bill as offering amnesty to illegal immigrants and who are determined to kill it. But as the legislation faced a crucial test vote in the Senate, Obama waded into the fray, leveraging the political capital on the issue he won during last year's election campaign, particularly among Hispanic voters. "This week, the Senate will consider a common-sense, bipartisan bill that is the best chance we've had in years to fix our broken immigration system," Obama said at an event at the White House. The president
also sought to disarm conservative Republicans -- even some who support immigration reform -- who argue that the bill should not be passed without tough new border security measures. "I know there's a lot of talk right now about border security so let me repeat: today illegal crossings are near their lowest level in decades. "If passed, the Senate bill, as currently written and as hitting the floor, would put in place the toughest border enforcement plan that America has ever seen. So nobody's taking border enforcement lightly." Obama also took direct aim at the motives of lawmakers who are opposed to the bill, which was drawn up in the Senate by a bipartisan group of lawmakers known as the "Gang of Eight." "There's no reason Congress can't get this done by the end of the summer," Obama said, but cast doubt on the motives of those wanting to block the bill. "If you're not serious about it, if you think that a broken system is the best America can do, then I guess it makes sense to try to block it," he said. "But if you're actually serious and sincere about fixing a broken system, this is the vehicle to do it, and now is the time to get it done. "There is no good reason to play procedural games or engage in obstruction just to block the best chance we've had in years to address this problem in a way that's fair to middle-class families, to business owners, to legal immigrants." The bill, which would give around 12 million illegal immigrants an eventual path to citizenship, will need 60 votes to pass the 100-seat Senate, and then face an uncertain fate in the Republican-controlled House of Representatives. Since their defeat in the 2012 presidential elections, some Republicans have shifted position and now support reform in the hope of winning over Hispanic voters, whose clout is expected to grow in future elections.
Obama will use the bully pulpit to push his second term agenda. Julianna Goldman (staff writer) May 23, 2013. Retrieved May 29, 2013 from
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-05-24/obama-bully-pulpit-bullied-with-congress-probesobscuring-agenda.html President Barack Obama renewed his oath of office in January vowing to use the bully pulpit to rally the American people around his second-term agenda.
Even small issues can derail immigration reform. Jack Plunkett, (staff writer) May 14, 2013. Retrieved May 29, 2013 from
http://www.npr.org/blogs/itsallpolitics/2013/05/14/183912123/controversies-risk-starvingobamas-agenda-of-air "The immediate problem may be with immigration. It's so close, anything could upset it ," Thurber
said. "It could take the political oxygen out of the air for the survival of immigration . ... They'll have to do it between now and August or it's going to be very hard to get one through. This slows it
down."
Momentum is necessary to pass immigration reform. Jack Plunkett, (staff writer) May 14, 2013. Retrieved May 29, 2013 from
http://www.npr.org/blogs/itsallpolitics/2013/05/14/183912123/controversies-risk-starvingobamas-agenda-of-air
Legislation, especially of the controversial kind, requires a head of steam to overcome opposition. The confluence of controversies, "certainly slows things down. And there needs to be a certain amount of momentum and speed on that or we will not have an immigration bill," Thurber said.
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Obamas ability to sway the public is key to his political strength. Julianna Goldman (staff writer) May 23, 2013. Retrieved May 29, 2013 from
If Obama is unable to sway the public and there is a real, genuine distracting scandal, then hes hurt, hes undermined politically in terms of his effectiveness as a leader, said Robert Dallek, who
is among a group of historians to have met periodically with the president. McCurry and other Clinton White House veterans who are no strangers to scandal have advised Obamas aides to be patient, focus the presidents time on his economic message and try to ride out the storm. Hes taking that approach. His first order of business is to keep the faith of the American people in him, said Harold Ickes, who was Clintons deputy chief of staff.
Immigration reform is not guaranteed to pass. Seung Min Kim, (staff writer) May 17, 2013. Retrieved May 29, 2013 from
http://www.politico.com/story/2013/05/immigration-reform-no-sure-bet-91573.html
After years of false starts, Washington finally appears to be on the path to rewriting the nations immigration laws. The Senate Gang of Eight bill is holding its own in committee and is
expected to hit the Senate floor in June. And in the House this week, members of a bipartisan group agreed in principle on a big bill to be revealed in June. But in this case, looks are deceiving. There are still major hurdles before immigration reform can reach President Barack
Obamas desk. The biggest one is the GOP-controlled House.
Republicans will work to de-rail immigration reform. Jean-Paul Salamanca, (staff writer) May 22, 2013. Retrieved May 29, 2013 from
http://www.latinospost.com/articles/19709/20130522/immigration-reform-news-2013-senatecommittee-passes-obama-backed-bill.htm
Now comes the true test for the bill as it heads before the full Senate, facing the task of being approved at both the Senate and a GOP-controlled House, with Republican opponents at both levels eager to derail the legislation . Sen. Rubio, who noted the challenge ahead, noted amid the celebration of the bill's passage in committee that there was still work ahead of them in making the bill into law.
Obamas capital is key Shifter, 12/27/2013 --- adjunct professor of Latin American politics at Georgetown Univers itys School of Foreign Service
(12/27/2012, Michael, Revista Ideel, Will Obama Kick the Can Down the Road? http://www.thedialogue.org/page.cfm?pageID=32&pubID=3186) CMR
There is, however, a notable change in Obamas style compared to the first term. He is far more confident and is proclaiming clear positions on key issues, such as raising tax rates on the most wealthy. Previously, Obama had been quite passive and would ask the Congress to present him with a proposal. Today, buoyed by a decisive win in November and more enthusiastic and expectant Democratic supporters, Obama is more inclined to take the initiative and draw some clear lines. How the fiscal cliff question is managed and ultimately resolved will likely shape the tenor and climate for Obamas second -term agenda. If it
leaves a bitter taste, then the rest of Obamas domestic priorities will be more difficult to achieve. If both parties think they gained something in the bargain, prospects for results in other areas will improve. Not surprisingly, Obama
has been explicit that reforming the USs shameful and broken immigration system will be a top priority in his second term. There is every indication that he intends to use some of his precious political capital
immigration reform. Despite especially in the first year to
push for serious change.
The biggest lesson of the last election was that the Latino vote was decisive. No one doubts that it will be even more so in future elections. During the campaign, many Republicans -- inexplicably -- frightened immigrants with offensive rhetoric. But the day after the election, there was talk, in both parties, of comprehensive
the sudden optimism about immigration reform, there is, of course, no
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guarantee that it will happen. It will require a lot of negotiation and deal-making . Obama will have to invest a lot of his time and political capital -- twisting some arms, even in his own party. Resistance will not disappear. There is also a chance that something unexpected could happen that would put off consideration of immigration reform. Following the horrific massacre at a Connecticut elementary school on
December 14, for example, public pressure understandably mounted for gun control, at least the ban of assault weapons. But a decision to pursue that measure -though desperately needed -- would take away energy and time from other priorities like immigration.
Itll be a tough fight, but Obama commitment is key Avlon 2/13/2013, John, senior columnist for Newsweek and The Daily Beast, CNN
contributor, winner of the National Society of Newspaper Columnists award for best online column in 2012; Obamas 2012 State of the Union and the Immigration Reform Moment, The Daily Beast http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2013/02/13/obama-s2013-state-of-the-union-and-the-immigration-reform-moment.html
We are still a long way from success. The 50 or so House radicals almost certainly will oppose comprehensive immigration reform when it comes to a votemaking a truly bipartisan bill functionally necessary as well as ideal. On Wednesday, the president is taking his State of the Union proposals on the road in a bit of campaign-style salesmanship. But while boosting poll numbers can help give cowardly legislators courage, it cant write legislation. There is urgency, opportunity, and self-interestcombined with a president committed to making immigration reform a core part of his legacy. The failures of the past might help to finally focus the collective mind in
Washington.
Obamas prioritization is key to passage Hesson, 1/2/2013 (Ted, 1/2/2013, Analysis: 6 Things Obama Needs To Do for Immigration Reform,
http://abcnews.go.com/ABC_Univision/News/things-president-obama-immigration-reform/story?id=18103115#.UOR2lXfbhtE)) CMR On Sunday, President Barack Obama
said that immigration reform is a "top priority" on his agenda and that he would introduce legislation in his first year. To find out what he needs to do to make reform a reality, we talked to Lynn Tramonte, the deputy director at America's Voice, a group that lobbies for immigration reform, and Muzaffar Chishti, the director of the New York office of Migration Policy Institute, a think tank. Here's what we came up with. 1. Be a Leader During Obama's first term, bipartisan legislation never got off the ground. The president needs to do a better job leading the charge this time around, according to Chishti. "He has to make it clear that it's a high priority of his," he said. "He has to make it clear that he'll use his bully pulpit and his political muscle to make it happen, and he has to be open to using his veto power." His announcement this weekend is a step in that direction, but he needs to follow through .
Obamas capital and bipartisan cooperation are key to effective reform DMN, 1/2 (Dallas Morning News, Editorial: Actions must match Obamas immigration pledge, 1/2/2013,
Obama said all the right things Sunday about immigration reform. he is serious about getting Congress to overhaul the laws governing immigrants. He even declared that he will introduce an immigration bill this year. This newspaper
President Barack The president told NBCs Meet the Press that welcomes that announcement. Texans particularly understand the unique challenges that an outdated immigration system presents. Even though the flow of illegal immigrants into the U.S. has subsided in the last few years, the many holes in the system leave families, schools, businesses and law enforcement struggling. And those are just some of the constituents challenged by flawed immigration laws. The presidents words to NBCs David Gregory are only that words. http://www.dallasnews.com/opinion/editorials/20130102-editorial-actions-must-match-obamas-immigration-pledge.ece)
What will really matter is whether he puts his muscle into the task this year. We suggest that Obama start by looking at the example of former President George W. Bush. Back in 2006 and 2007, the Republican and his administration constantly worked Capitol Hill to pass a comprehensive plan. They failed, largely because Senate Republicans balked. But the opposition didnt stop the Bush White House from fully engaging Congress, including recalcitrant Republicans. Obama may have a similar 97
Politics DA/Answers SUDI 2013 problem with his own party. The dirty little secret in the 2006 and 2007 immigration battles was that some Democrats were content to let Senate Republicans kill the effort. Labor-friendly Democrats didnt want a bill, either. And they may not want one this year. That reluctance is a major reason the president needs to invest in this fight . He must figure out how to bring enough Democrats along, while also reaching out to Republicans. In short, the nation
doesnt need a repeat of the process through which the 2010 health care legislation was passed. Very few Republicans bought into the presidents plan,
If the nation is going to create a saner immigration system, both parties need to support substantial parts of an answer. The new system must include a guest worker program for future immigrants and a way for illegal immigrants already living here
leaving the Affordable Care Act open to partisan sniping throughout last years election. to legalize their status over time. Some House Republicans will object to one or both of those reforms, so Speaker John Boehner must be persuasive about the need for a wholesale change. But
the leadership that matters most will come from the White House. The president has staked out the right position. Now he needs to present a bill and fight this year for a comprehensive solution. Nothing but action
will count.
Obamas all-in on immigration compromise is likely now, but leadership is still required Cohen et al. 1/30/12 (CNN's Dan Lothian in Las Vegas and Dana Bash, Ed Payne, Deirdre Walsh, Kevin
Liptak, Catherine E. Shoichet , Jessica Yellin and Matt Smith contributed to this report, which was written by Tom Cohen in Washington, 'Now's the time' to move on immigration, Obama says, CNN.com, 1/30/13 http://www.cnn.com/2013/01/29/politics/immigration-reform/index.html)
Obama threw his full support behind a comprehensive overhaul of U.S. immigration laws on Tuesday, saying "now's the time" to replace a system he called "out of date and badly broken." The president specified three pillars of immigration reform: better enforcement of immigration laws, providing a path to citizenship for the more than 11 million undocumented immigrants already in the country, and reforming the legal immigration system. Speaking at a majority Hispanic high school in Las Vegas, Obama said "a broad consensus is emerging" behind the issue across the country, with signs of progress in Congress. However, he acknowledged a fierce debate ahead on an issue he described as emotional and challenging, but vital to economic growth and ensuring equal opportunity for all. "At this moment, it looks like
President Barack there's a genuine desire to get this done soon. And that's very encouraging," Obama said, later adding: "This time, action must follow. We can't allow immigration reform to get bogged down in an endless debate." The president spoke a day after eight senators -- four from each party -- introduced a framework for overhauling the immigration system that would provide an eventual path to citizenship for most of the more than 11 million undocumented immigrants in America. While touted as a breakthrough by its drafters, the plan was similar in many aspects to previous immigration reform efforts that have failed in recent years. Obama described the blueprint as a sign of renewed desire by Democrats and Republicans to tackle the issue, saying the plan was "very much in line with the principles I've proposed and campaigned on for the last few years." He was criticized by Latino activists for failing to deliver on a 2008 campaign promise to make overhauling immigration policy a priority of his first term. As his re-election campaign heated up last year, the Obama administration announced a halt to deportations of some young undocumented immigrants in a move that delighted the Latino community. Exit polls in November indicated that Latino voters overwhelmingly supported Obama over GOP challenger Mitt Romney, who had advocated a policy that amounted to forcing undocumented immigrants to deport themselves. Obama won Nevada, a battleground state with a large Hispanic population. Obama appeared on Tuesday at Del Sol High School, which has a 54% Hispanic student body, according to U.S. News and World Report rankings. To earn the opportunity for citizenship, Obama said undocumented immigrants must first pass a background check, learn English, pay a penalty, and then get "in the back of the line" behind people trying to come to America legally. Millions of undocumented immigrants would get immediate but provisional status to live and work in the United States, under the compromise plan crafted by the senate group. That outline also called for strengthening border controls, improved monitoring of visitors and cracking down on hiring undocumented workers. Only after those steps occurred could undocumented immigrants already in the country begin the process of getting permanent residence -- green cards -- as a step toward citizenship, the senators said at a news conference on Monday. Before Obama spoke on Tuesday, Republican Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida said any legislation based on the framework he helped draft must include tougher law enforcement sought by conservatives to get his vote. "We need border security, we need workplace enforcement, we need a visa tracking system," Rubio said, adding later that would oppose a bill that lacked language guaranteeing that "nothing else will happen unless these enforcement mechanisms are in place." Rubio and other senators involved in the bipartisan immigration effort said Monday they plan to provide a bill to the Senate Judiciary Committee in March, with hopes of getting the measure passed over the summer A few hours later, Obama said he would propose his own immigration bill if Congress failed to act on the issue in a timely manner. On the House side, a similar effort on immigration is said to be under way involving a group of Republicans and Democrats. Two senior House Democratic sources briefed on that effort told CNN the group was working to release some sort of outline of its plan soon, possibly as early as this week, but concede "they are not as far along as the Senate." Senate lays out blueprint The principles described by Obama on Tuesday were similar to the framework proposed Monday by the eight senators. Conservatives split on reform Other conservatives immediately voiced their opposition to what they called amnesty, a code word on the political right for providing undocumented immigrants a path to legal status. "Our immigration laws aren't broken, they just aren't enforced," argued Rep. Lamar Smith, R-Texas, after Obama's speech. " ... We've been down this road before with politicians promising to enforce the law in return for amnesty. And then after the amnesty, they fail to make good on the enforcement promises. The American people should not be fooled. When you legalize those who are in the country illegally, it costs taxpayers millions of dollars, costs American workers thousands of jobs and encourages more illegal immigration." Republican Sen. Mike Lee of Utah objected to the framework by his Senate colleagues, saying the guidelines "contemplate a policy that will grant special benefits to undocumented immigrants based on their unlawful presence in the country." What's in Senate immigration plan? Rubio rejected such a characterization on Tuesday, saying that the framework would require undocumented immigrants to undergo a background check and face immediate deportation if they committed any serious crimes. Otherwise, they then would have to pay any taxes owed as well as a fine to get what Rubio called "the equivalent of a non-resident visa that allows you to work here." An opportunity to get a green card and possible citizenship would only come after the government undertakes other steps, such as increasing border security, he added. Obama, meanwhile, signaled disagreement with Republicans over the state of border security, saying in his speech that the Southwest border was more secure than ever. He mentioned steps to crack down on the hiring of undocumented workers, as well as unclogging the legal immigration system to encourage highly skilled and educated workers already in the country to remain instead of taking their expertise abroad. Democratic senators backing the framework unveiled Monday plan include Chuck Schumer of New York, Dick Durbin of Illinois, Robert Menendez of New Jersey
Durbin said Tuesday that immigration reform must have bipartisan support to work, so it won't include everything everyone wants. "It's going to look different than what I might write, or the president might write," he said. Like the Senate framework, the House plan will include a path to citizenship, but details of how that will work are still being discussed. The Senate proposal is a good starting point, Rep. Joe Garcia, D-Florida, said Tuesday on CNN. "I think it puts us in a very good place," he said. A litany of left-leaning advocacy groups spoke out on the senators' plan, praising it as a good first step but cautioning against harming the rights of workers. "The people of this
and Michael Bennet of Colorado. On the Republican side were Rubio, John McCain of Arizona, Lindsey Graham of South Carolina and Jeff Flake of Arizona. country are ready for us to be one country again without second-class people being mistreated simply because they lack paper, even though they are already contributing to our economy and our tax system," NAACP President Ben Jealous said.
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Presidential brokering is key to immigration reform: Elise Foley, 1/15/2013 (staff writer, Obama Gears Up For Immigration Reform Push
Now there's the question of how Obama gets there. While
confrontation might work with Republicans on other issues -- the debt ceiling, for example -- the consensus is that the GOP is serious enough about reform that the president can, and must, play the role of broker and statesman to get a deal . It starts with a lesson from his
first term. Republicans have demanded that the border be secured first, before other elements of immigration reform. Yet the administration has been by many measures the strictest ever on immigration enforcement, and devotes massive sums to policing the borders. The White House has met many of the desired metrics for border security, although there is always more to be done, but Republicans are still calling for more before they will consider reform. Enforcing
the border, but not sufficiently touting its record of doing so, the White House has learned, won't be enough to win over Republicans.
Obama push is keycauses a bill to passed by this summer: JORDAN FABIAN, 1/30/2013 (staff writer, Obama Confident Immigration Reform
Passes This Year, http://abcnews.go.com/ABC_Univision/Politics/president-obamaconfident-immigration-reform-passes-year/story?id=18358660, Accessed 1/30/2013, rwg) Later in the interview, Obama said that he hopes a bill could be passed as early as this summer. But cognizant of deep divisions a topic like immigration has sewn in the past, Obama said that's contingent on bipartisan negotiations continuing to proceed well. "The only way this is going to get
done is if the Republicans continue to work with Democrats in Congress, in both chambers, to get a bill to my desk," he said. "And I'm going to keep on pushing as hard as I can. I believe that the mood is right."
Obamas leadership and capital are key --- other agenda priorities can tradeoff and quick action is necessary for passage Hesson, 1/2 (Ted, 1/2/2013, Analysis: 6 Things Obama Needs To Do for Immigration Reform,
http://abcnews.go.com/ABC_Univision/News/things-president-obama-immigration-reform/story?id=18103115#.UOR2lXfbhtE)
Obama said that immigration reform is a "top priority" on his agenda and that he would introduce legislation in his first year. To find out what he needs to do to make reform a reality, we talked to Lynn Tramonte, the deputy director at America's Voice, a group that lobbies for immigration reform, and Muzaffar Chishti, the director of the New York office of Migration Policy Institute, a think tank. Here's what we came up with. 1. Be a Leader During Obama's first term, bipartisan legislation never got off the ground. The president needs to do a better job leading the charge this time around, according to Chishti. "He has to make it clear that it's a high priority of his," he said. "He has to make it clear that he'll use his bully pulpit and his political muscle to make it happen , and he has to be open to using
On Sunday, President Barack his veto power." His announcement this weekend is a step in that direction, but he needs to follow through.
Obama will negotiate and deal make on immigration reform: Sam Stein, 1/21/2013 (staff writer, Obama's Post-Partisan Promise Mellows Amid
First Term Gridlock, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/01/21/obama-post-partisanpromise_n_2490700.html?utm_hp_ref=the-road-forward, Accessed 1/23/2013, rwg)
Looking at the legislative map, there appear to be few opportunities for such dealmaking in the second term. The
White House has refused, as a matter of principle, to negotiate over the debt ceiling. But it will likely make concessions elsewhere to avoid a government shutdown. Axelrod did predict a constructive compromise on immigration reform. "It would be a suicidal impulse for Republicans in Congress to continue to block that," he said.
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Political capital is keyObama cant steamroll his way to victory on immigration reform: Elise Foley, 1/15/2013 (staff writer, Obama Gears Up For Immigration Reform Push
In other words, it's
not the place for steamrolling. "He needs to be an honest broker here," said Ali Noorani, of the politician forcing immigration reform, Obama needs to be the statesman creating immigration reform."
executive director of the National Immigration Forum, which works on bipartisan consensus for reform. " Instead
Obama will negotiate with individual Republicans to peel them off: Sam Stein, 1/21/2013 (staff writer, Obama's Post-Partisan Promise Mellows Amid
But getting
to "yes" with the GOP on other topics will require a bit of legislative craft. The macro On a micro level, White House allies are pushing for the administration to engage directly with individual Republicans rather than the leadership of the party, in hopes of building majority support for legislation by peeling off moderate members of the GOP. The underlying theory is that it's better to find consensus
solutions, such as changing the way congressional districts are drawn, won't happen till after Obama leaves office. with a few than to fail with the mass.
Obama push key to immigration reform: Jean-Paul Salamanca, 1/22/2013 (staff writer, Immigration Reform Obama 2013,
http://www.latinospost.com/articles/10158/20130122/immigration-reform-obama-2013inauguration-speech-hints.htm, Accessed 1/23/2013, rwg)
Meanwhile, immigrants
across the country will undoubtedly pay close attention as to whether or not the immigration reform that they have looked forward to for so long will indeed become reality. "We need this president to push as hard as he can , because Latinos care about immigration and the election showed it,"
Erika Andiola, a well-known immigrant rights activist in Arizona, told CBS News this week. "Our families can no longer be separated."
Obama will use political capital to support immigration reform: Kim R. Holmes, 1/23/2013 (former assistant secretary of state, A problem-solving
approach to immigration, http://www.washingtontimes.com/news /2013/jan/23/holmesa-problem-solving-approach-to-immigration/, Accessed 1/24/2013, rwg)
The reason is politics. Mr. Obama knows that amnesty excites his base. The 78 percent of the Hispanic vote he received focuses the mind of Democrats on potential new voters. Mr. Obama
was criticized in his last term for not addressing immigration. Now, with refreshed political capital from the election, hes ready to make amends. Mr. Obama also knows
amnesty could potentially divide Republicans. Many in the GOP are deeply worried about losing the Hispanic vote, and Mr. Obama likely thinks some of them could be picked off in a promised grand bargain. That is not likely to happen. Democrats are not serious about real reforms.
Obama push key to immigration reform: Sarahi Uribe, 1/22/2013 (staff writer, Immigration reform: Obama needs to close gap
between rhetoric and reality, http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree /2013/jan/22/immigration-reform-obama-rhetoric-reality, Accessed 1/24/2013, rwg)
The road to immigration reform begins with President Obama.
first term that amplified immigrants' suffering and criminalization. He and equality he spoke of at his second inauguration. He needs to distance himself from a disappointing
has the power and moral imperative to be the first
to respond to his own call to action. It's time the president's policies on immigration reflect the virtues of democracy, freedom,
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101
Internal Links: Now Key Time

Obama has a limited window to push his second term agenda. Julianna Goldman (staff writer) May 23, 2013. Retrieved May 29, 2013 from
Obama has a limited window to galvanize Americans, put his stamp on revamping the nations immigration laws, pursue climate-change legislation and ensure that the plan to expand health
coverage to tens of millions of the uninsured is carried out in the face of Republican resistance. Every day that his message is overtaken by the static noise of congressional probes -- into the Justice Departments seizure of phone records from the Associated Press, the administrations handling of the September attack on a U.S. outpost in Benghazi, Libya, and questions about what White House aides knew about the IRS scandal and when they knew it -- is a missed opportunity.
Obama has a short window of opportunity to pass his agenda. Jack Plunkett, (staff writer) May 14, 2013. Retrieved May 29, 2013 from
http://www.npr.org/blogs/itsallpolitics/2013/05/14/183912123/controversies-risk-starvingobamas-agenda-of-air "He really only has about five months to deal with some major issues like gun control, but also, of course, immigration and the grand bargain," said Thurber, referring to a deficit-reduction deal with Republicans to reduce spending and increase tax revenues.
Obama only has a narrow window to push his issuesImmediate push is key: Chris Weigant, 1/23/2013 (staff writer, Handicapping Obama's Second Term
Obama, like all second-term presidents, will only have a short window of time to push his issues.
There is one way this conventional wisdom could turn out to be wrong, but it is a long shot, at best. If Democrats can manage to hold their edge in the Senate and take control of the House in the 2014 midterm elections, then Obama could defy second-term expectations and actually get a lot done in his final two years in office. But, as I said, this should be seen as a remote possibility at this point. Remember 2010, in other words.
Realistically, Obama's only going to have anywhere from a few months to (at most) a year and a half to get anything accomplished. Which is why he is right to push his agenda immediately , as
evidenced by his inaugural speech. But even he must realize that he's not going to get everything he wants, so it will be interesting to see what makes it through Congress and what dies an ignoble legislative death.
Now is keysecond term presidents have a narrow window to pass legislation: Mark R. Kennedy, 1/15/2013 (Professor of political management @ George
Washington University, My Immigration Reform Prediction: Late and Light, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/mark-r-kennedy/immigration-reform_b_2426718.html, Accessed 1/23/2013, rwg)
Awaiting lame duck status: Second-term presidents normally have a short window of time to pass serious legislation before Congress picks up the mantle and starts driving the agenda.
Small window of opportunity on immigration reform: Jessica Coscia, 1/21/2013 (staff writer, Obama Inauguration: Latinos Take in History,
Plan to Hold President Accountable, 102
Politics DA/Answers SUDI 2013 http://latino.foxnews.com/latino/news/2013/01/21/obama-inauguration-latinos-take-inhistory-plan-to-hold-president-accountable/, Accessed 1/23/2013, rwg)

She was happy to take in all the pomp and circumstance surrounding the inauguration but she remained focused on the future. "We
have a small window of opportunity after this inauguration to make sure that promises like immigration reform are not forgotten, she said.
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Internal Links: Republicans Key

(--) Republican support key on immigration reform: EMILY DERUY, 1/30/2013 (staff writer, Gang of Eight Accelerates Immigration
Reform Pace, http://abcnews.go.com/ABC_Univision/Politics/gang-acceleratesimmigration-reform-pace/story?id=18354593, Accessed 1/30/2013, rwg)
Both men said they recognize that they're not going to get unanimous agreement on such a contentious issue, but said getting as much Republican support in the Senate as possible will be crucial to any bill's passage in the House. McCain said that the group hopes to attract as many as 80 votes in the Senate, an ambitious goal. While McCain said he has not spoken directly to House Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio), he is encouraged by his support for the idea of immigration reform. He said the gang also "wants to work" with a group of House members currently
discussing immigration reform.
(--) Republicans are key to Obama agenda: David Lauter, 1/19/2013 (staff writer, Obama comes out swinging for second term,
http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/nation/la-na-adv-inaug-fever20130120,0,3781596,full.story, Accessed 1/19/2013, rwg)
If Republican opposition cracks , the president can win major victories . If the Republicans vote down his proposals, "the Republicans are now the party that's viewed as being fundamentally intransigent," and the votes could help Democratic candidates in future elections, he said.
(--) Republicans key to Obamas agenda Scott Wilson, 1/21/2013 (staff writer, The Washington Post, Obama thinking big for term No.
2, Accessed 1/24/2013, rwg)
But, as
the looming confrontation over the borrowing limit suggests, Obamas ability to work with
the Republican Party , through a mix of persuasion and confrontation, will probably determine his success and his legacy, for better or worse. Theres a moment of opportunity now thats important, Pfeiffer
said. Whats frustrating is that we dont have a political system or an opposition party worthy of the opportunity.
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Impacts: Nukes/Econ/Heg
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Impacts: Cyber-Defenses Key to Solve Cyber-Terror

Cyber-defenses are necessary to solve and deter cyber-attacks. O. Sami Saydjari (Cyber Defense Agency, LLC) 2008. Retrieved May 29, 2013 from
Annual Computer Security Applications Conference, http://www.acsac.org/2008/program /keynotes/saydjari.pdf As a step toward a security research plan that includes such capabilities, we should identify endstates goals in terms of how we want our systems to ideally operate. This fresh perspective includes the overall strategic picture and connects clearly with strategic actions that significantly mitigate strategic vulnerabilities. If, for example, the nation has a capability to quickly recover its
critical information infrastructure, then the end-state is that strategic attack damages are mitigated and critical services are restored quickly, possibly deterring adversaries from attempting a future attack. Desired End-States. The National Cyber Defense Initiative (NCDI) Opening Moves
Workshop [4] identified important end-states, the outcome of a 10- year research effort to create critical capabilities. The following end-states appear in the workshop proceedings: --Continuity of Critical Information Infrastructure Operations. Create technology that would be the basis for a resilient US cyber infrastructure that would sustain critical functions in the face of attacks , including those that could be affected by determined adversaries. --Well-Defended Critical Assets. Make it economically prohibitive for an adversary to cause strategic damage to critical US infrastructures. Currently, adversaries can attack critical systems without investing substantial resources.
Increasing green cards generates effective IT experts to combat cyber war McLarty 9 (Thomas F. III, President McLarty Associates and Former White House
Chief of Staff and Task Force Co-Chair, U.S. Immigration Policy: Report of a CFRSponsored Independent Task Force, 7-8, http://www.cfr.org/ publication/19759/us_immigration_policy.html)
We have seen, when
you look at the table of the top 20 firms that are H1-B visa requestors, at least 15 of those are IT firms. And as we're seeing across industry, much of the hardware and software that's used in this country is not only manufactured now overseas, but it's developed overseas by scientists and engineers who were educated here in the United States. We're seeing a lot more activity around cyber-security, certainly noteworthy attacks here very recently.
It's becoming an increasingly dominant set of requirements across not only to the Department of Defense, but the Department of Homeland Security and the critical infrastructure that's held in private hands. Was undertook this review on the security things
there any discussion or any interest from DOD or DHS as you about what can be done to try to generate a more effective group of IT experts here in the United States, many of which are coming to the U.S. institutions, academic institutions from overseas and often returning back? This potentially puts us at a competitive disadvantage going forward. MCLARTY: Yes. And I think your question largely is the answer as well. I mean, clearly we have less talented students here studying -- or put another way, more talented students studying in other countries that are gifted, talented, really have a tremendous ability to develop these kind of technology and scientific advances, we're going to be put at an increasingly disadvantage. Where if they come here -- and I kind of like Dr. Land's approach of the green card being handed to them or carefully put in their billfold or purse as they graduate -- then, obviously, that's going to strengthen, I think, our system, our security needs.
Cyber war causes extinction.
Heinbockel 00 (William, cyber warfare expert, Press Enter to Win World War III
<http://www.rit.edu/~wjh3710/pub/senior_paper.pdf> November 2000) 106
Politics DA/Answers SUDI 2013 Cyber warfare will become the military technology of the future and will ultimately be the blitzkrieg of the 21 st century. This
is because cyberwars are fast and cheap and require fewer participants. Cyber warfare is more controlled than nuclear, biological, or chemical warfare. Cyber weapons will begin a war where the winner will truly be the commander that makes the best use of state-of-the-art technology to disrupt an enemys economy. Even though technology has become more deadly, future war will have fewer human casualties than any other major war in the history of the world. The countries of NATO should start looking toward the deactivation and disuse of all biological and nuclear capacities during warfare. Cyber warfare has rendered these capacities to be too powerful for use by any nation or organization for any reason. Nuclear and biological warfare have been a technology of the past, and cyberwar will be the technology of the future. Albert Einstein predicted that, I do not know with what weapons World War III will be fought, but World War IV will be fought with sticks and stones
cyber warfare is the weapon of tomorrows armies. Will the new technologies of tomorrow ultimately lead to the self-destruction of humans? People have developed the technology that leads to world destruction. Vince Incardona, a networking specialist at Rochester Institute of Technology says that, [Humans] have already perfected the art of eliminating each other so well that continuing to perfect these technologies only leads in one direction: extinction
(Sublette). Nuclear warfare and biological warfare were yesterdays weapons, but (*Incardona).
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Impacts: Nuclear War

Cyber-attacks risk a nuclear war. Sean Lawson (PhD, expert in information-age warfare) May 13, 2009. Retrieved May 29, 2013
from www.seanlawson.net/?p=477
So, from a theoretical standpoint, I think his concerns are well founded. But the
current state of U.S. policy may be cause for even greater concern. Its not just worrisome that a hypothetical blinding attack via cyberspace could send a signal of imminent attack and therefore trigger an irrational response from the adversary. What is also cause for concern is that current U.S. policy indicates that kinetic attacks (i.e. physical use of force) are seen as potentially legitimate responses to cyber attacks. Most worrisome is that current U.S. policy implies that a nuclear response is possible, something that policy makers have not denied in recent press reports. The reason, in part, is
that the U.S. defense community has increasingly come to see cyberspace as a domain of warfare equivalent to air, land, sea , and space. The definition of cyberspace as its own domain of warfare helps in its own right to blur the online/offline, physical-space/cyberspace boundary. But thinking logically about the potential consequences of this framing leads to some disconcerting conclusions. If cyberspace is a domain of warfare, then it becomes possible to define cyber attacks (whatever those may be said to entail) as acts of war. But what h appens if the U.S. is attacked in any of the other domains? It retaliates. But it usually does not respond only within the domain in which it was attacked. Rather, responses are typically cross-domain responsesi.e. a massive bombing on U.S. soil or vital U.S. interests abroad (e.g. think 9/11 or Pearl Harbor) might lead to air strikes against the attacker. Even more likely given a U.S. military way of warfare that emphasizes multidimensional, joint operations is a massive conventional (i.e. non-nuclear) response against the attacker in all domains (air, land, sea, space), simultaneously. The possibility of kinetic action in response to cyber attack, or as part of offensive U.S. cyber operations, is part of the cu rrent (2006) National Military Strategy for Cyberspace Operations [5]: Of course, the possibility that a cyber attack on the U.S. could lead to a U.S. nuclear reply constitutes possibly the ultimate in cross-domain response. And while this may seem far fetched, it has not been ruled out by U.S. defense policy makers and is, in fact, implied in current U.S. defense policy documents. From the National Military Strategy of the United States (2004): The term WMD/E relates to a broad range of adversary capabilities that pose potentially devastating impacts. WMD/E includes chemical, biological, radiological, nuclear, and enhanced high explosive weapons as well as other, more asymmetrical weapons. They may rely more on disruptive impact than destructive kinetic effects. For example, cyber attacks on US commercial information systems or attacks against transportation networks may have a greater economic or psychological effect than a relatively small release of a lethal agent. [6]
Cyber-attacks risk a nuclear war. Sean Lawson (PhD, expert in information-age warfare) May 13, 2009. Retrieved May 29, 2013
from www.seanlawson.net/?p=477
The authors of a 2009 National Academies of Science report on cyberwarfare respond to this by saying, Coupled
with the declaratory policy on nuclear weapons described earlier, this statement implies that the United States will regard certain kinds of cyberattacks against the United States as being in the same category as nuclear, biological, and chemical weapons, and thus that a nuclear response to certain kinds of cyberattacks (namely, cyberattacks with devastating impacts) may be possible. It also sets a relevant scalea
cyberattack that has an impact larger than that associated with a relatively small release of a lethal agent is regarded with the same or greater seriousness. [7]
Cyber-attacks risk nuclear conflict Colby Elbridge (Staff writer) June 24, 2013. Retrieved June 25, 2013 from
http://nationalinterest.org/commentary/cyberwar-the-nuclear-option-8638
Would a cyberattack ever call for a nuclear response? In a recent op-ed for the Washington Post, former counterterrorism czar Richard Clarke and former Clinton NSC official Steve Andreasen argue that the United States should definitively take the threat of nuclear retaliation off the table in response to major cyber attacks. The two were responding to a January report of a task force of the Defense Science Board (DSB), whose recommendation to include existential cyber attacks in the scope of U.S. nuclear deterrence they see as destabilizing, dangerous and inimical to broader U.S. goals. Clarke and Andreasen argue that by giving notice that we will count massive cyber assaults as a possible basis for a nuclear response we would exacerbate instability and tensions, provoke mimicking responses from Russia and China, and block progress on reducing nuclear risks. But are they right that such a policy linking nuclear and cyber is unwise? Intuitively it certainly seems that a nuclear response to even significant cyber attacks would be grossly disproportionate. Would
the United States really believe itself justified in launching a nuclear strike against a country responsible for disrupting, say, your banks servers or the oil refinery that services your gas station? Or would it seriously consider a nuclear response to a successful cyber attack against a non-nuclear military asset, such as a fighter wing or a ship? Obviously not. But the DSB Task Force wasnt focused on those kinds of attacks. Rather, they were looking at what they referred to as existential
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cyber attacks: large-scale, brutally effective attacks on critical elements of the U.S. military and civilian infrastructure that would impose significant loss of life and tremendous degradation of our national welfare. What they meant was attacks which lead to planes falling out of the sky, water and power shutting off, communications
dying, food rotting, and the like. As Task Force Chairman (and Under Secretary of Defense in the Clinton administration) Paul Kaminski made clear, any cyber attack meriting consideration of nuclear use would have to be extreme. It
would have to be the kind of attack that we would judge would be threatening our survival. The Task Force was saying that if an enemy hits us with a cyber attack of a scale comparable to a nuclear blow, we should be ready to retaliate with a nuclear strike. This is in line with longstanding U.S. nuclear doctrine, most recently restated in the 2010 Nuclear Posture Review, that the United States reserves the right to retaliate with nuclear weapons in response to non-nuclear attacks of great severity or dangerin extreme circumstances, in the Reviews apt parlance. But Clarke and Andreasen argue that reserving this right is both unnecessary and
dangerous. They readily concede that cyberthreats are real, but contend that we should rely on a combination of defenses, non-nuclear retaliation, and diplomacy to guard against such attacks. Meanwhile, they argue, introducing the nuclear element into the cyber balance will only exacerbate instability and provoke nuclear-cyber arms races with Russia, China and others. The problem with this argument is that it both understates the value and overstates the danger of the nuclear element in deterring (both actual and threatened) existential cyber attacks. They understate the value because the United States needs deterrence, as we simply cant practically defend against large -scale, sophisticated cyber assaults. A central finding of the Task Force was that the full spectrum cyber threat [of a top -tier cyber power] is of such magnitude and sophistication that it [cannot] be defended against. As such, a defense-only strategy against this threat is insufficient to protect U.S. national interests and is impossible to execute. Therefore, a successful DoD cyber strategy must include a d eterrence component. In other words, a military strategy relying only on defenses against cyber attacks is a recipe for failure. This makes sensethe problems of attribution, the costliness of cyber defenses, and the affordability of cyber offenses all make the contemporary cyber domain a classic offense-dominant arena, one in which the attacker has huge advantages and which can be very unstable unless the offense dominance is balanced by the credible threat of retaliation. Now, Clarke and Andreasen would presumably argue that the United States should indeed rely on deterrence to deal with this offense dominance problem but only by using non-nuclear forces. The flaw in this approach, however, is twofold. First, even under favorable conditions it is unclear that our conventional forces alone could do enough damage to outweigh the advantages from crippling the United States that would accrue to a committed adversary in a conflict. More to the point, if the United States found itself under existential cyber attack it would have to reckon that its conventional military forces would be under intense pressure and might well be significantly degraded in capability. (Indeed, the Task Force took the threats to our military forces so seriously that it recommended basically taking a portion of our forces off the grid, compromising the evident advantages of cyber-enabled connectivity in favor of greater resilience in the event of an effective cyber onslaught from a capable opponent.)
A cyber-attack on the US guarantees nuclear war Richard Clarke and Steven Andreasen June 14, 2013. Cyberwars threat does not justify a
new policy of nuclear deterrence Retrieved June 25, 2013 from http://articles.washingtonpost.com/2013-06-14/opinions/39977598_1_nuclear-weapons-cyberattack-cyberattacks
President Obama is expected to unveil a new nuclear policy initiative this week in Berlin. Whether he can make good on his first-term commitments to end outdated Cold War nuclear policies may depend on a firm presidential directive to the Pentagon rejecting any new missions for nuclear weapons in particular, their use in response to cyberattacks. The
Pentagons Defense Science Board concluded this year that China and Russia could develop capabilities to launch an existential cyber attack against the United States that is, an attack causing sufficient damage that our government would lose control of the country. While the manifestation of a nuclear and cyber attack are very different, the board concluded, in the end, the existential impact to the United States is the same. Because it will be impossible to fully defend our systems against existential cyberthreats, the board argued, the United States must be prepared to threaten the use of nuclear weapons to deter cyberattacks. In other words: Ill see your cyberwar and raise you a nuclear response. Some would argue that Obama made clear in his
2010 Nuclear Posture Reviewthat the United States has adopted the objective of making deterrence of nuclear attacks the sole purpose of our nuclear weapons. Well, the
board effectively reviewed the fine print and concluded that the Nuclear Posture Review was essentially silent on the relationship between U.S. nuclear weapons and cyberthreats, so connecting the two is not precluded in the stated policy. As the board noted, cyberattacks
can occur very quickly and without warning, requiring rapid decision-making by those responsible for protecting our country. Integrating the nuclear threat into the equation means making clear to any potential adversary that the
United States is prepared to use nuclear weapons very early in response to a major cyberattack and is maintaining nuclear forces on prompt launch status to do so. Russia and China would certainly take note and presumably follow suit. Moreover, if the
United States, Russia and China adopted policies threatening an early nuclear response to cyber-attacks, more countries would surely take the same approach. Its hard to see how this cyber-nuclear action-reaction dynamic would improve U.S. or global security. Its more likely to lead to a new focus by Pentagon planners on generating an expanding list of cyber-related targets and the operational deployment of nuclear forces to strike those targets in minutes.
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Impacts: Cyber-Attacks Increasing Now

Rates of cyber-hacking are increasing now. Bill Schmick (staff writer) The Independent Investor: Cyber Attacks: Who Is On The Frontline? May 10, 2012. Retrieved May 11, 2012 at
http://www.iberkshires.com/blog/Independent InvestortheMarket/1659 /The-IndependentInvestor-Cyber-Attacks-Who-Is-On-The-Frontline-.html?source=blogs_block
Unlike other wars the United States has fought, this one is on our territory and the frontline troops are increasingly the IT departments of American corporations. To date, those troops have been both outnumbered and outfought by the enemy. The rates of infiltration by organized gangs or state-sponsored hackers are escalating. In a multinational study by the Center for Strategic and International Studies, the three countries ranked as most vulnerable to attacks were the U.S., Russia and China, while the biggest potential source of attacks was our own country.
Cyber-attacks are increasing now. Margo D. Beller, (staff writer) 3/22/2012 (staff writer, US Unsure How Exposed Firms Are to
Cyber Attacks: Official, Mar. 22, 2012. Retrieved May 11, 2012 at http://www.cnbc.com/id/46822133 Are we doing a lot of work already? Yes, she added. Weve responded to 106,000 attacks
across the United States into various systems. We know they are going on, theyre increasing in sophistication. We know that tactics and techniques are increasingly available online to wrongdoers so, again, we need a statutory push. We need help from Congress now.
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Impacts: Economy
Cyber-attacks cost the US billions of dollars each year. Bill Schmick (staff writer) The Independent Investor: Cyber Attacks: Who Is On The Frontline? May 10, 2012. Retrieved May 11, 2012 at
There is a war being waged today in this country, one that could have severe repercussions for each and every one of us. It is costing us billions of dollars a year and yet neither business nor government wants to spend the money necessary to fight back. This week on Capitol Hill lawmakers are getting down to debating the pros and cons of passing one of several versions of a cyber-security bill. Everyone hopes the eventual legislation will launch a counterattack on an army of highly sophisticated hackers bent
on some serious mayhem. The debate boils down to who is going to pay for a defense system that will prevent the bad guys from accomplishing a "fire sale," a la the last "Die Hard" film.
Cyber-attacks are costing American companies big money. Bill Schmick (staff writer) The Independent Investor: Cyber Attacks: Who Is On The Frontline? May 10, 2012. Retrieved May 11, 2012 at
Today, we only hear of the biggest cyber-attacks such as the 2011 theft of over 200,000 customer names, account numbers
and contact details from Citigroup or the 100 million accounts pilfered from Sony Online Entertainment's PlayStation Network. I was on the
These attacks are costing American companies big money. It costs on average over $7.2 million in costs (lost business, legal defense and
receiving end of the Citigroup theft, and believe me, it drives home the danger like nothing else. compliance) or $214 per customer record in costs. If it is a first time breach, it can cost 30 percent more, not to mention the inconvenience to its customers like me. Yet, the real danger is not in the consumer sector. It is in the potential for a breach in the nation's infrastructure system.
Hackers undermine US competitiveness: Robert S. Mueller, (Director of FBI), Changing Threats in a Changing World: Staying Ahead of Terrorists, Spies, and Hackers, Nov. 17, 2011. Retrieved May 11, 2012 at
http://www.fbi.gov/news/speeches/changing-threats-in-a-changing-world-staying-ahead-ofterrorists-spies-and-hackers
American companies are losing billions of dollars worth of intellectual property, research and development, and trade secrets. Outside attackers burrow into company networks and remain undiscovered for months or even years. It is much like having termites in your houseoften, by the time you discover them,
the damage is done. And hacktivist groups are pioneering their own forms of digital anarchy. Here in the Bay Area, you witnessed their work
We also must consider that hostile nations or terrorist groups could launch cyber attacks against our critical infrastructure. The
firsthand when individuals hacked the BART website and released personal data of BART customers. anonymity of the Internet makes it difficult to discern the identity, the motives, and the location of an intruder. And the proliferation of portable devices that connect to the Internet only increases the opportunity to steal vital information. We in the FBI cannot merely react to computer intrusions. Hackers will seek to exploit every vulnerability, and we must be able to anticipate their moves. Let me share one example. In April, the FBI brought down an international botnet known as Coreflood. Botnets are those networks of virus -infected computers controlled remotely by an attacker. To shut down Coreflood, the FBI took control of five servers the hackers had used to infect some two million computers with malware. This malware allowed the hackers to steal personal and financial information by recording users keystrokes. We not only shut down the serverswe took another unprecedented step. With court approval, the FBI responded to signals sent from infected computers in the United States. We sent those computers a command that stopped the malware, preventing harm to hundreds of thousands of users.
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Cyber-attacks can wreck financial systems: Richard Adhikari, (staff writer) (Civilization's High Stakes Cyber-Struggle: Q&A With Gen. Wesley Clark 2009. Retrieved May 11, 2012 at
http://www.technewsworld.com/story/68787.html) Clark: That's not the only threat, and you shouldn't overstate the ease with which people can do
this. An ordinary person can't go in and wreck a financial system, but when you have skilled professionals with malign intent, with the right funding and the right technology -- and, maybe, inside information -- we don't know what damage is possible. We suspect it could be significant
and we have to expend a lot of effort to safeguard the system.
Cyber-attacks pose an existential threat to financial systems Wall Street Journal June 24, 2013. Cyberattacks: Banks' Latest 'Existential Risk' Retrieved June 25, 2013 from
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323998604578565410546088212.html "Wanted: ethical hackers willing to launch repeated cyberattacks on a major U.S. bank to test its defenses. Competitive pay and discretion assured." I made up the advertisementthere are few ads in the world of hackingbut the trend is real. Enlarge Image At least one large U.S. lender has hired hackers in recent months to simulate full-blown attacks on its systems. Cyber-experts say that many other firms do it in-house, splitting their technology whiz kids into groups of attackers (the "red team") and defenders ("the blue team") to get as close as possible to real-life assaults on their firewalls. As cyberterrorists train their sights on U.S. financial infrastructure, banks, regulators and savers need to up their game. Lenders, especially smaller ones, should be afraid. Very afraid. Regulators have awoken to the problem, telling banks to get their act together or risk ending up as victims of foreign governments or terrorist organizations. Some already have. Late last year,
a spate of "denial of service attacks," later traced to Iranian hackers, disrupted the websites of several financial firms for days, providing a worrying example of what a cyberwar on Wall Street and Main Street banks could look like. Cybersecurity is a critical issue for every company but, as often, financial-services firms are a special case. Each and every attack can undermine the public's faith not just in the individual institution, but in the entire financial system. The financial-services sector accounted
for "just" 3% of all data breaches that led to identity theft in 2012, according to a recent report by Symantec Corp. SYMC +0.57% But each of the average of 400,000 identities that were revealed during every one of those incidents represents a dent in the wall of trust between customers and their financial institutions. Wall
Street lawyer Rodgin Cohen put it best last week when he called cybersecurity an "existential risk." "Unless we do better in aligning the private sector and the public sector in hardening our systems, sooner or later there is going to be a very serious problem,"
Mr. Cohen, a partner at Sullivan & Cromwell LLP, told the WSJ's CFO Network conference. Enlarge Image Agence France-Presse/Getty Images AUTOMATIC THREAT MACHINE? Regulators have warned banks to tighten defenses against hacking from terrorists or foreign organizations. Is enough being done? Well, there is good news and bad news. The good news is that big banks are alert to the issue. Lenders hate to talk publicly about their efforts, but behind the scenes, large institutions are spending millions of dollars to stay a step ahead of foreign governments and malicious hackers. Richard Bejtlich, chief security officer at Mandiant Corp., a cybersecurity company, ranks defense contractors and large financial institutions as the best at responding to these threats. "They have the full spectrum of issues to deal with," he says. "Financial-services companies have to deal with malicious insiders, people who leave the company and take information with them, fraud, espionage and denial of service attacks." Bank executives agree. "We have to be on top of this. We have millions of customers and even if just 1% is affected, we could be in serious trouble," one told me recently. The bad news is that community banks are lagging badly behind their larger brethren. The even worse news is that hackers love to target smaller businesses. Across the economy, half of the cyberattacks launched in 2012 hit businesses with fewer than 2,500 employees, according to Symantec. Nearly a third of the incidents occurred at firms with fewer than 250 staff. "With our smaller institutions, we find that they are less prepared because they can't throw millions and millions of dollars at the problem," says Benjamin Lawsky, the superintendent of New York's Department of Financial Services. So how can small banks, often strapped for staff and resources, oppose the hacking might of, say, Iran or China? The answer may lie in something rather unusual in finance: cooperation. Experts like Mr. Bejtlich argue that there is safety in numbers. They point to other industries, notably universities, where pooling resources and knowledge has helped bolster defenses. Banks are loath to share information, especially technology and customer data. And even if lenders suddenly discovered their brotherly spirits, there are antitrust provisions designed to keep cooperation to a minimum. But if ever there was a need for an exception to usual practice and competition law, this is it. Valerie Abend, the senior officer for critical infrastructure at the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, recently said communication and coordination between banks is key when facing cyberthreats. "A bank that's experiencing this may have connections or interdependencies with other banks or third parties who may also be attacked," Ms. Abend said. In
the face of ever more potent attacks from organized bad guys, strengthening the weak link in the U.S. financial chain seems like an end that could justify the means.
Economic collapse causes nuclear war- extinction Broward 9 ((Member of Triond) http://newsflavor.com/opinions/will-an-economic-collapsekill-you/) 112

Now its time to look at the consequences of a failing world economy. With five offical nations having nuclear weapons, and four more likely to have them there could be major consequences of another world war. The first thing that will happen after an economic collapse will be war over resources. The United States currency will become useless and will have no way of securing reserves. The United States has little to no capacity to produce oil, it is totatlly dependent on foreign oil. If the United States stopped getting foreign oil, the government would go to no ends to secure more, if there were a war with any other major power over oil, like Russia or China, these wars would most likely involve nuclear weapons. Once one nation launches a nuclear weapon, there would of course be retaliation, and with five or more countries with nuclear weapons there would most likely be a world nuclear war. The risk is so high that acting to save the economy is the most important issue facing us in the 21st century.
Immigration reform key to the economy: Brooke Berger, 1/23/2013 (staff writer, Villaraigosa: Comprehensive Immigration
Reform Is Not Amnesty, http://www.usnews.com/opinion/articles/2013/01/23/villaraigosa-comprehensiveimmigration-reform-is-not-amnesty, Accessed 1/23/2013, rwg)
What are the economic incentives for immigration reform? There's a $1.5 trillion economic impact , according to the Center for American Progress. The Dreamers alone, it's estimated, will have a $329 billion impact over a 10-year period. And the reason is this: You're bringing these people from out of the dark and into the light. What happens when you do that? You encourage them to get an education, you encourage them to improve their job skills. They're encouraged to seek better jobs. They contribute more to our Social Security system. President Obama has said that we should attach a green card to the diploma of people who
come here getting bachelor's degrees, particularly in science and math. [Also, H-1B] visas need to be expanded, and we need to make sure that we have a program that makes sense in the agricultural sector.
Key to the economy every indicator experts agree Krudy 1/29 (Edward, Analysis: Immigration reform could boost U.S. economic
growth, http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/01/29/us-usa-economyimmigrationidUSBRE90S06R20130129, CMR)
sluggish U.S. economy could get a lift if President Barack Obama and a bipartisan group of senators succeed in what could be the biggest overhaul of the nation's immigration system since the 1980s. Relaxed immigration rules could encourage entrepreneurship, increase demand for housing, raise tax revenues and help reduce the budget deficit, economists said. By helping more immigrants enter the country legally and allowing many illegal immigrants to remain, the United States could help offset a slowing birth rate and put itself in a stronger demographic position than aging Europe, Japan and China. "Numerous industries in the United States can't find the workers they need, right now even in a bad economy, to fill their orders and expand their production as the market demands," said Alex Nowrasteh, an immigration specialist at the libertarian Cato Institute. The emerging consensus among economists is that immigration provides a net benefit. It increases demand and productivity, helps drive
(Reuters) - The innovation and lowers prices, although there is little agreement on the size of the impact on economic growth. President Barack Obama plans to launch his second-term push for a U.S. immigration overhaul during a visit to Nevada on Tuesday and will make it a high priority to win congressional approval of a reform package this year, the White House said. The
chances of major reforms gained momentum on Monday when a bipartisan group of senators agreed on a framework that could eventually give 11 million illegal immigrants a chance to become American citizens. Their proposals would
also include means to keep and attract workers with backgrounds in science, technology, engineering and mathematics. This would be aimed both at foreign students attending American universities where they are earning advanced degrees and high-tech workers abroad. An estimated 40 percent of scientists in the United States are immigrants and studies show immigrants
are twice as likely to start
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businesses, said Nowrasteh. Boosting legal migration and legalizing existing workers could add $1.5 trillion to the U.S. economy over the next 10 years, estimates Raul Hinojosa-Ojeda, a specialist in immigration policy at the University of California, Los Angeles. That's an annual increase of 0.8 percentage points to
the economic growth rate, currently stuck at about 2 percent.
Immigration reform passage is likely, but not guaranteed its key to reviving the economy Christian 2/8/2013 (Amber Christian, International Business Times, Immigration
Reform: Possibilities And Prospects, 2/8/13 http://www.ibtimes.com/immigrationreform-possibilities-prospects-1072864)
Despite years of a stalemate between Republicans and Democrats on immigration reform, the other side of the border appears to be in view . The standoff, to put it simply, came down to Republicans opinion that issues of amnesty would be perceived as rewarding
illegal behavior. Democrats, conversely, have a long history of claiming humanitarian reasons for looser immigration laws. Arguably, though, the baseline is political motivation for gaining votes. That the interests of these odd political bedfellows are now aligning is integral -- especially considering that the future of our economy and our identity as a nation will be shaped by the outcome of this debate. Following President Barack Obamas landslide second-tern victory, with record-setting support from Hispanic voters, key GOP members now speak about reform as a possibility -- instead of a burden -- for the first time in 100 years. Hispanic voters backed Obama over his competitor former Gov. Mitt Romney 71 percent to 27 percent. This demographic has put their name on the map in 2012, voting at a record 23.7 million, up 80 percent since the 2000 presidential election, according to the Pew Research Center. On. Jan. 28, the so-called Gang of Eight, comprised of four Democrats and four Republican senators, proposed a comprehensive reform package, including updating the current legal immigra tion system and a tough but fair path to citizenship for the 11 million or more undocumented immigrants throughout the country. This bipartisan call to action comes not a moment too soon. Successful immigration reform could improve the nations image, broaden the tax base, retain much needed huma n capital, and revitalize the commitment to the countrys founding principals of freedom and opportunity. Its been almost 30 years since immigration gained this much traction, when President Ronald Reagan introduced the Immigration and Control Act of 198 6. Amnesty was granted for the countrys three million or more undocumented immigrants, yet the reform portion of the act failed to take place. Today, broad support for reform underlines the need to modernize U.S. immigration policies to accommodate and capitalize on our 21st century economy. We are not a nation homogeneous in race and religion. The economy and demographics in this country are no longer a traditional America. The U.S. reached a tipping point in 2011 when the Census Bureau reported the first year in which Caucasian births were the minority (49.6 percent), compared to nonwhite births (50.4 percent), including Hispanics, blacks, Asians and mixed-race. A generation is being born in which so-called minorities are the majority. Reform is critical in ensuring the next century of this country as rich and vibrant as the last. An alternative plan must be demanded from those opposing comprehensive reform. Radical pundits and opinion leaders on both sides of the isle cannot cling to the immigration status quo. Vested politicians stand to benefit from spearheading reform. Asian and Hispanic voters represent the two fastest-growing demographics in the nation. Today, there are approximately 16.3 million U.S.-born underage Latinos that will more than double the current Hispanic electorate by 2030. There is much to gain by using the nations founding principles of freedom and economic opportunity to appeal to the countrys immigrants. We should take the long -view when it comes reform. The
country is in a unique place where good policy, good politics, and wide-reaching support for immigration reform could revitalize the economy and the energy of what it means to be an American. Immigration has a long history as a positive force in Americas economic and cultural life. Streamlining the process for foreigners to enter the country legally and documenting current illegal immigrants in a systematic and responsible way would boost the nations recent lethargic economy . Immigration increases productivity and helps drive innovation. Alex Nowrasteh, immigration specialist at the Cato
Institute, estimates 40 percent of scientists in the U.S. are foreign-born. Additionally, Nowrasteh claims U.S. immigrants are twice as likely to start a business than native-born citizens. The Congressional Budget Office estimated in 2007 that current proposed immigration reform would generate $48 billion in revenue over a 10year period, while costing an estimated $23 billion in assisted welfare and health care payments. With comprehensive reform that incentivizes immigration of educated and skilled labor, the cost would likely be much lower.
Although progress seems within reach, key thorny issues still
divide Congress . While its too early to celebrate a bipartisan success in Washington, the historic broad-backing support of reform puts more pressure and possibility on Washington than anytime in recent history.
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Immigration reform overwhelmingly key to the economy all the best studies conclude gains in basically every important internal link Bier 2/12/2013, David, policy analyst specializing in immigration and environmental
policy at the Competitive Enterprise Institute, Immigration Reforms Economic Benefits, Open Market, http://www.openmarket.org/2013/02/12/immigration-reformseconomic-benefits/
Comprehensive immigration reform is coming. For those that dont speak D.C. doublespeak, that means more costly,
useless, and privacy-invading border drones, more guards and fences, more employer prosecutions, and national identification for all Americans. On the other hand, it means much more legal immigration and legalization for immigrants already here illegally. Looking at only these last two parts, what
will the economic impact be? 1) Fewer deportations mean less wasteful federal spending. we could find all 11 million deportable immigrants, the cost of mass deportation to be $206 billion over 5 years, or $41 billion annually. Five years later, the Center for American Progress put the number at $285 billion over 5 years. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) has found that it costs at the margin $12,500 to deport a single person. This translates to $138.8 billion, ignoring the capital costs. 2) Fewer deportations raise GDP. Ignoring the unlikely event we can force out all 11.1 million unauthorized immigrants,
College of William and Mary professor of economics Rajeev Goyle estimated in 2005 that if even a strong enforcement effort that reduces the number of unskilled workers by 28% would lower GDP by $80 billion or 0.5% of the income of U.S. households, according to economists Peter Dixon and Maureen Rimmer in 2009. In 2012, Berkley Econ Professor Ral Hinojosa-Ojeda found that the
number would likely be $2.6 trillion in lost GDP over ten years, not including the actual fiscal cost of deportation (Prof. Goyle found the same number in 2005). In 2012, the Department of Agriculture looked at the economic impact of cutting the unauthorized population in half over 15 years. It found that it would reduce U.S. wages by 0.3
to 0.6%. In 2009, the dairy industry concluded similarly that eliminating 50 percent of migrant workers would reduce its sales by $6.7 billion, cutting GDP $11 billion. 3) Legalization
would increase GDP. In 2012, Hinojosa-Ojeda found in 2012 that the just wage increases due to legalization for immigrants would raise GDP $30 billion to $36 billion over just three years.
Economists Manuel Pastor and Justin Scoggins estimated the wage premium that immigrants receive from naturalization and con cluded that it
would add $21 to $45 billion in GDP over ten years. If unauthorized immigrants gained the average wage increase from legalization during the last legalization in 1986, as the Public Policy Institute of California found, GDP would get an annual $35.52 billion bump or $355.2 billion over ten years. 4) More immigration would increase U.S. wages. Immigrants complement the skills over U.S. workers, creating better job opportunities and higher wages. The White House Council of Economic Advisers found in 2007 that annual wage gains from immigration are between $30 and $80 billion. Economist Giovanni Peri found in 2007 that wages for workers with at least a high school degree grew by 2 percent due to immigration between 1990 and 2004. Peri and Gianmarco Ottaviano, using a model that takes into account comparative advantage gains, found that immigration in 2010 increased the wages of all Americans by 0.6% with a positive effect on low-skilled Americans. UC Berkley economist David Card discovered the same thing in 2005 looking at city specific data. 5) More immigration lowers prices. Economist Saul Lach found in 2007 that the higher output from immigration also lowers prices by 0.5% on average. MITs Patricia Cortes in 2006 found that immigrants lowered prices in
immigrant-dominated industries by 1.3%. In 2007, economists Robert E. Lipsey and Birgitta Swedenborg showed that countries that keep labor scarce consume much fewer labor-intensive goods. For example, there are far fewer restaurants in Nordic countries due to the inability to find labor. In New York City in 2012, the Fiscal Policy Institute found lower education immigrants own 70 to 90 percent of all laundry, taxi and limousine, grocery, beauty salon, and day care small businesses. 6) More
high-skilled immigration increases jobs and innovation. Immigrants have twice as many patents and Nobel Prize recipients per capita than natives. In 2006, immigrant founded companies produced $52 billion in sales and employed 450,000 workers. Immigrants served either as founder, CEO, or VP of engineering in more than three quarters of top 50 venture-backed companies. Even 100 new temporary highskilled immigrants create 183 new jobs for U.S. workers, according to economist Madeline Zavodny. Alarmist claims about immigrationproduced by the havens of protectionist garbage, Center for Immigration Studies and Federation for American Immigration Reformshould be interpreted in context of the overwhelming evidence partially presented above that legal immigration has a profoundly positive effect on the economy. Legalization (of some kind) and more legal immigration will benefit Americas economy, not because of
some intrinsic element of immigrants, but because, as late economist Julian Simon said, people are the ultimate resource not some nasty drag on the world.
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Immigration reform is necessary to revive the economy. Ezra Klein 1/31/13 Worried about the economy? Then pass immigration reform
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2013/01/31/worried-about-theeconomy-then-pass-immigration-reform/
Washington tends to have a narrow view of what counts as economic policy. Anything we do to the tax code is in. So is any s timulus we pass, or any deficit reduction we try. But most of this
the most important piece of economic policy we pass or dont pass in 2013 may be something we dont think of as economic policy at all: immigration reform. Congress certainly doesnt consider it economic policy, at
mistakes the federal budget for the economy. The truth is, least not officially. Immigration laws go through the House and Senate judiciary committees. But consider a few facts about immigrants in the American economy: About a 10th of the U.S. population is foreign-born. More than a quarter of U.S. technology and engineering businesses started from 1995 to 2005 had a foreign-born owner. In Silicon Valley, half of all tech startups had a foreign-born founder. One-quarter of all U.S.-based Nobel laureates of the past 50 years were foreign born. Right now, about half of the PhDs working in science and technology are foreign born. Immigrants begin businesses and file patents at a much higher rate than their native-born counterparts, and while there are disputes about the effect immigrants have on the wages of lowincome Americans, theres little dispute about their effect on wages overall: They lift them. The economic case for immigration is best made by way of analogy. Everyone agrees that aging economies with low birth rates are in trouble; this, for example, is a thoroughly conventional view of Ja pan. Its even conventional wisdom about the U.S. The retirement of the baby boomers is correctly understood as an economic challenge. The ratio of working Americans to retirees will fall from 5 to 1 today to 3 to 1 in 2050. Fewer workers and more retirees is tough on any economy. Theres nothing controversial about that analysis. But if thats not controversial, then immigration shouldnt be, either. Immigration is essentially the importation of new workers. Its akin to raising the birth rate, only easier, because most of the newcomers are old enough to work. And because living in the U.S. is considered such a blessing that even very skilled, very industrious
the U.S. has an unusual amount to gain from immigration. When it comes to the global draft for talent, we almost always get the first-round picks at least, if we want them, and if we make it relatively easy for them to come here. From the vantage of naked self-interest, the wonder isnt that we might fix our broken immigration system in 2013. Its that we might not. Few economic problems wouldnt be improved by more immigration. If youre worried about deficits, more young, healthy workers paying into Social Security and Medicare
workers are willing to leave their home countries and come to ours,
are an obvious boon. If youre concerned about the slowdown in new company formation and its attendant effects on economic growth, more immigrant entrepreneurs should cheer you. If youre worried about the dearth of science and engineering majors in our universities, an influx of foreign-born students is the most obvious solution youll find. Politicians of both parties recognize this. Our goal is to advance policies that make a difference in peoples lives, and that means we want to advance pro-growth reforms
that are good for the economy, Republican Rep. Paul Ryan said at a recent Wall Street Journal breakfast. The first pro -growth reform he named? Immigration. Many immigration opponents lodge a moral objection to amnesty allowing people who broke the la w to reap the benefits of legal status. Thats beyond the scope of this particular column. The main economic concern about allowing more immigration or legalizing the status of those who are already here is that immigrants will undermine the wages of the least-skilled Americans. In reality, its not clear that will happen. In addition to growing the size of the national pie, unskilled immigrants tend to have what economists call complementary skills to U.S. workers. If one worker speaks English and another doesnt, for example, they generally dont pursue the same job. In that way, its useful again to compare immigration with na tive birth rates. Increasing the number of native-born workers leads to more direct competition, because two native-born workers are probably more similar than an immigrant and a native worker. Yet most everyone cheers if they hear that the U.S. birth rate has ticked up. Some workers are hurt by immigration, but they are typically already struggling. The best way to help them is with more training, better health care, a more generous earned income tax credit and so on. Those benefits are easier to provide in a growing economy with more young workers than in a slug gish one with chronic budget deficits. Immigration isnt what really ails them, and it isnt what stands in the way of aiding them. Will immigrants use those same social services, as some immigration opponents contend, adding to the cost of the nations welfare state? Yes, but not as often as theyll pay into it. In 2007, the Congressional Budget Office analyzed the issue while assessing President George W. Bushs proposed immigration reforms. It found that legalizing undocumented immigrants would increase federal revenue by $48 billion while costing only $23 billion in increased public services and thats before accounting for the broader economic benefits of immigration. There are few free lunches in public policy. But taking advantage of our unique pos ition as a country where the worlds best, brightest and hardest -
economies arent mainly about budgets and tax codes, though Congress occasionally pretends otherwise. Theyre about workers and business owners. Immigration reform is a way to get more of both.
working desperately want to live is surely one. In the end,
CIR key to the economy- recession inevitable without it Hinojosa-Ojeda 2012(Ral, Founding Director of the North American Integration and Development Center at the University of
California, Los Angeles, The Economic Benefits of Comprehensive Immigration Reform, http://www.cato.org/sites/cato.org/files/serials/files/cato-journal/2012/1/cj32n1-12.pdf) The historical experience of legalization under the 1986 Immigration Reform and Control Act indicates that comprehensive
immigration reform would raise wages, increase consumption, create jobs, and generate additional tax revenue. Even though IRCA was implemented during a period that included a recession and high unemployment (199091), it still helped raise wages and spurred increases in educational, home, and small business investments by newly legalized immigrants. Taking the experience of IRCA as a starting point, we estimate that comprehensive immigration reform would yield at least $ 1.5 trillion in added U.S. gross domestic product ( GDP ) over 10 years.1 This is a compelling economic reason to move away from the current vicious cycle where enforcement-onlypolicies perpetuate unauthorized migration and exert downward pressure on already low wages , and toward a virtuous cycle of worker empowerment in which legal status and labor rights exert upward pressure on wages.
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Immigration reform key to the economywindow of opportunity now: Peri 2/12/2013, Giovanni, professor of economics at the University of California, Davis,
co-author of Overhauling the Temporary Work Visa System, The Economic Windfall of Immigration Reform, Wall Street Journal online, http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324196204578297850464590498.html? mod=googlenews_wsj
After months of acrimony, it now appears that immigration reform, and a comprehensive one at that, is within reach. While most of the debates have been about the immediate consequences of any change in policy, the goal should be to promote economic growth over the next 40 years. Immigration
is a powerful engine for bringing skills, workers and ideas into the United States. Yet if history is any guide, this country gets a chance at substantial immigration reform only every four to five decades. Thus the economic gains from "getting the immigration system right" will be large and long-lasting.
Key to economic recovery spurs job growth and innovation Park 12 (David, Immigration Reform Is Key to Job Creation, March 23,
http://www.usnews.com/opinion/blogs/economic-intelligence/2012/03/23/immigrationreform-is-key-to-job-creation, CMR)
As America continues to look for more jobs Washington can't seem to come up with an answer. We've heard solutions from
policy wonks, politicians, and academics, but rarely from people who have first-hand experience actually creating jobs. The voice of the small business owner is faintly being heard, but I'm not so sure our friends on Capitol Hill are listening. There is continual talk about destructive regulations and burdensome red tape, but very little discussion over specific policies and regulations that are so burdensome and in need of reform. Well, here's one from a job
creator: immigration. Immigration reform is key to spurring innovation and getting the economy back on track . I'm a small business owner who realizes the role legal immigrants play in creating new
jobs. As founder and CEO of a boutique merchant bank, I've started or acquired nearly 30 small and midsize companies, creating hundreds of jobs for Americans across the country. I am also an immigrant and an example of how highly-skilled immigrants educated in the United States can drive job creation right here at home. Employment-based immigration provides ways for highly skilled immigrants to come to the United States on either a permanent or temporary visa and contribute to our economy. I came to the United States at the age of six because my parents wanted me to have the opportunity to live the American Dream. While at that time, immigration law was by no means lax, the window of legal immigration opportunity has been closing more and more as the process gets bogged down in the bureaucratic morass. The sad truth is,
America's dysfunctional immigration law doesn't hurt the would-be immigrants as much as it cripples our nation's competitiveness and prospect for future prosperity and job growth. Ironically, there is no cap placed on the
number of temporary workers, as they are not eligible for citizenship. According to U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services there are over 20 classifications in which a temporary nonimmigrant worker may enter the United States. These highly-skilled workers are usually sponsored by an employer for a specific job or have been accepted to an American university, with the expectation that they will only be in the United States on a temporary basis. After we train and educate these foreigners, we send them back to their home countries. Meanwhile, the United States only accepts 140,000 permanent immigrants a year based on Citizenship and Immigration Services' employment-based standards. A recent report by The Partnership for a New American Economy found that immigrants or their children founded more than 40 percent of the 2010 Fortune 500 companies. Further, these U.S. companies employ more than 10 million people worldwide and have combined revenues of $4.2 trillion. And these are the very people we are turning our backs to. In good economic times or bad, keeping
entrepreneurs and productive workers beyond our shores and outside our borders is nonsensical. We shouldn't be denying our nation's economic engine the fuel of innovative talent it so desperately needs. We shouldn't be wasting our
resources by perpetuating a broken immigration system where these highly skilled workers are trained and educated in America but sent back into their home countries. We
need immigration reform that reinforces the American Dream by encouraging and enabling the best and the kind of progrowth policy that would ignite a more robust economic recovery , create jobs, and chart a course to a more prosperous future.
the brightest, regardless of their nation of origin, to launch businesses right here in the United States. That's
Reform key to growth skilled labor shortages West 1/28 VP and Director of Governance Studies @ Brookings (Darrell, Time to Address
Immigration Reform, http://www.brookings.edu/blogs/up-front/posts/2013/01/28-immigrationreform-west, CMR) 117
In many of these sectors, there are worker shortages that cannot be filled by available American workers. The reason for this is a mismatch in worker supply and demand across industry sectors and geographic areas. Between retirements, demographic gaps, geographic differentials, and the failure of educational institutions to deliver employees in key sectors, the United States has worker shortages at a time of high national unemployment. There are two potential
ways to fill these gaps: The first is to retrain American workers to ensure that their skill sets match the needed requirements. The second is to take advantage of foreign workers with the skill set and mobility to fill the existing gaps, which I lay out extensively in my immigration policy book Brain Gain. Both steps are needed to address our current situation. In the coming debate over immigration reform, we need to keep in mind the economic rationale for changing our system. At both the high and low skills end of the marketplace, we
need immigrants who will fill jobs, launch businesses, and contribute to long-term economic prosperity . With half of Silicon Valley companies having an immigration founder or co-founder, the economic argument is very clear. Providing a pathway to citizenship for those who already are here and adopting measures that help highly educated immigrants in science, technology, engineering, and math stay here are vital for American prosperity.
Congress should seize the moment and take action in this crucial area.
Immigration reform boosts US economy: Tamar Jacoby, 3/14/2011 (President, ImmigrationWorks USA, Immigration Reform
and U.S. Economic Performance, http://www.cfr.org/immigration /immigration-reformus-economic-performance/p24358, Accessed 1/23/2013, rwg)
Long-term demographic and educational trends are changing the native-born workforce. U.S. families are having fewer children. Baby boomers are retiring. Perhaps most significant, Americans are increasingly educated. In 1960, half of the native-born men in the U.S. workforce had dropped out of high school and were doing unskilled work; today, the figure is less than 10 percent. Yet if
anything, our need for unskilled labor is growing. New technologies and foreign competitors have forced many industries to restructure in ways that
increase their dependence on less skilled workers--meatpacking is the classic example. And Americans across the socioeconomic spectrum rely on a growing service sector: everything from fast-food restaurants to healthcare for the elderly. Even in the downturn, this gap between supply
reform would boost U.S. economic performance by providing legal low-skilled workers to fuel the future growth of these sectors--workers we will need more and more as the economy recovers.
and demand is filled by immigrants. Immigration
Immigration reform key to turning economies around: Jonathan Bowles, 3/14/2011 (Executive Director, Center for an Urban Future,
Immigration Reform and U.S. Economic Performance, http://www.cfr.org/immigration /immigration-reform-us-economic-performance/p24358, Accessed 1/23/2013, rwg)
Immigrants are proven economic turnaround specialists and catalysts for growth. In community after community, they have replenished lost population, given local employers a capable workforce, and, provided a critical entrepreneurial spark.
Economic crisis blocks solutions to global warming: Michael Graham Richard, 2/6/2008 (Counter-Point: 4 Reasons Why Recession is BAD
for the Environment, http://www.treehugger.com/files/2008/02/4_reasons_recession _bad_environment.php, Accessed 11/7/2012, rwg)
Thirdly, there's
less money going into the stock markets and bank loans are harder to get, which means that many small firms and startups working on the breakthrough green technologies of tomorrow can have trouble getting funds or can even go bankrupt, especially if their clients or backers decide to make cuts. Fourthly, during economic crises, voters want the government to appear to be doing something about the economy (even if it's government that screwed things up in the first place). They'll accept all kinds of measures and laws, including those that aren't good for the environment . Massive corn subsidies anyone? Don't even think about progress on global warming ...
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Warming causes human extinction

Tickell, 8-11-2008
(Oliver, Climate Researcher, The Gaurdian, On a planet 4C hotter, all we can prepare for is extinction, http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2008/aug/11/climatechange) We need to get prepared for four degrees of global warming, Bob Watson told the Guardian last week. At first sight this looks like wise counsel from the climate science adviser to Defra. But the idea that we could adapt to a 4C rise is absurd and dangerous. Global warming on this scale would be a catastrophe that would mean, in the immortal words that Chief Seattle probably never spoke, "the end of living and the beginning of survival" for humankind. Or perhaps the beginning of our extinction. The collapse of the polar ice caps would become inevitable, bringing long-term sea level rises of 70-80 metres. All the world's coastal plains would be lost, complete with ports, cities, transport and industrial infrastructure, and much of the world's most productive farmland. The world's geography would be transformed much as it was at the end of the last ice age, when sea levels rose by about 120 metres to create the Channel, the North Sea and Cardigan Bay out of dry land. Weather would become extreme and unpredictable, with more frequent and severe droughts, floods and hurricanes . The Earth's carrying capacity would be hugely reduced. Billions would undoubtedly die . Watson's call was supported by the government's former chief scientific adviser, Sir David King, who warned that "if we get to a four-degree rise it is quite possible that we would begin to see a runaway increase". This is a remarkable understatement. The climate system is already experiencing significant feedbacks , notably the summer melting of the Arctic
sea ice. The more the ice melts, the more sunshine is absorbed by the sea, and the more the Arctic warms. And as the Arctic warms, the release of billions of tonnes of methane a greenhouse gas 70 times stronger than carbon dioxide over 20 years captured under melting permafrost is already under way. To see how far this process could go, look 55.5m years to the Palaeocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum, when a global temperature increase of 6C coincided with the release of about 5,000 gigatonnes of carbon into the atmosphere, both as CO2 and as methane from bogs and seabed sediments. Lush subtropical forests grew in polar regions, and sea levels rose to 100m higher than today. It appears that an initial warming pulse triggered other warming processes. Many scientists warn that this historical event may be analogous to the present: the warming caused by human emissions could propel us towards a similar hothouse Earth.
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Impacts: Hegemony
Inadequate cyber-security threatens US leadership: Katrina Timlin, (Research Assistant for the Technology and Public Policy Program at the
Center for Strategic and International Studies), Partisanship jeopardizes U.S. cyber defense, Feb. 24, 2012. Retrieved May 11, 2012 at http://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/2012/02/24/partisanship-jeopardizes-u-s-cyberdefense/) These breaches show that no one is immune: the current cybersecurity infrastructure, based on
voluntary security measures and marginal incentives, is woefully inadequate. The sum of exploitable vulnerabilities in U.S. critical infrastructure, financial, and defense contracting companies undermines U.S. national economic competitiveness. This is not a hypothetical or apoplectic assertion - weak cybersecurity has enabled U.S. adversaries to pilfer sensitive military technology and obtain information in advance of global summits, eroding Americas economic, political, and military strength.
Cyber-warfare capabilities key to hegemony: Stephanie Dreyer, (staff writer) (Cyber Warfare: The War America is Losing, Jan. 2012
http://www.policymic.com/articles/3645/cyber-warfare-the-war-america-is-losing
This is a good first step. If we are going to defend ourselves from 21st century threats, we need to change the way we look at cyber warfare. We must educate Americans about the real dangers that cyber-attacks pose and encourage our students to study computer science to create a new generation of professionals who know how to safeguard our nation against cyber terrorism. In addition, we must not be afraid to use our intelligence and technology to our advantage. If America wants to remain a super power and maintain a strong geopolitical standing, we must use every weapon at our disposal to protect ourselves.
Collapse guarantees multiple conflicts globally Thayer 07 (Bradley A.; Associate Professor in the Dept. of Defense and Strategic Studies at
Missouri State University; American Empire: A Debate Reply to Christopher Lane: The Strength of American Empire; pg 103)
There is no viable alternative grand strategy for the United States than primacy. Primacy is the best
and most effective means to maintain the security and safety of the United States for the reasons I argued in chapter 1. However, it is also the best because every other grand strategic alternative is a chimera and can only weaken the United States, threaten the security and safety of the American people, and introduce great peril for the United States and for other countries. A
large part of what makes primacy such a success is that other countries know where the United States stands, what it will defend, and that it will be involved in disputes, both great and small. Accordingly, other countries have to respect the interests of the United States or face the consequences. Offshore balancing incurs the risks of primacy without its benefits. It pledges that the United States will defend its interests with air power and sea power, but not land power. hat is curious because we could defend our interests with land power but choose not to, suggesting our threat to defend is not serious, which weakens our credibility and invites challenges to the interests of the United States Offshore balancing increases the probability of conflict for the United States. It raises the danger that the interests of the United States will be challenged not only from foes like China and Iran, but, perversely, also from countries now allied with the United States like Japan and Turkey.
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U.S. hegemony solves nuclear war Zalmay Khalilzad (Dep. Secretary of Defense) Spring 1995 The Washington Quarterly
A world in which the United States exercises leadership would have tremendous advantages. First,
the global environment would be more open and receptive to American values--democracy, free markets, and the rule of law. Second, such a world would have a better chance of dealing
cooperatively with the world's major problems, such as nuclear proliferation, renegade states, and low level conflicts. Finally, US leadership would help preclude the rise of another global rival, enabling the US and the world to avoid another cold or hot war and all the attendant dangers, including a global nuclear exchange.
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Impacts: LA Relations
122
Latin American Relations Module

A) Immigration reform key to US-Latin American relations: Arturo Lopez-Levy, 11/24/2012 (doctoral candidate at the Josef Korbel School of
International Studies of the University of Denver, The Latin American Gorilla, http://www.theepochtimes.com/n2/opinion/the-latin-american-gorilla-318169.html, Accessed 1/23/2013, rwg)
Few political acts would have a greater effect on U.S.-Latin American relations than the naturalization of millions of Hispanics over the next decade. President Obama announced that immigration reform would be a legislative priority in his second term during the Summit of the Americas in Cartagena. It is not only a domestic but a foreign policy promise.
The countries that have the largest number of undocumented immigrants in the United States are the same ones that have free-trade agreements: Mexico, Central America, and Colombia. These are also the countries with the greatest need for a coordinated effort against organized crime and drug and arms trafficking. Establishing a path to citizenship for millions of undocumented immigrants would make border control more manageable, and it would also lead to greater demand for the legal immigration of families and circular movement between the United States and immigrants count ries of origin.
Comprehensive U.S. immigration reform would have a very significant positive impact on tourism, remittances, investment, and the voting preferences of expatriates from those countries.
B) US-Latin American relations solve a host of existential scenarios: Shifter 12 (Michael is the President of Inter-American Dialogue. Remaking the
Relationship: The United States and Latin America, April, IAD Policy Report, http://www.thedialogue.org/PublicationFiles/IAD2012PolicyReportFINAL.pdf, Accessed 1/23/2013, rwg)
There are compelling reasons for the United States and Latin America to pursue more robust ties. Every country in the Americas would benefit from strengthened and
expanded economic relations, with improved access to each others markets, investment capital, and energy resources. Even with its current economic problems, the United States $16-trillion economy is a vital market and source of capital (including remittances) and technology for Latin America, and it could contribute more to the regions economic performance. For its part, Latin Americas rising economies will inevitably become more and more crucial to the United States economic future.
The United States and many nations of Latin America and the Caribbean would also gain a great deal by more cooperation on such global matters as climate change , nuclear non-proliferation , and democracy and human rights. With a rapidly expanding US Hispanic population of more than 50 million, the cultural and demographic integration of the United States and Latin America is proceeding at an accelerating pace, setting a firmer basis for hemispheric partnership.
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Latin America RelationsImpact Overview

(--) Extend our Shifter evidencestrong US Latin American relations are key to solving warming, proliferation, and the spread of democracynot only does it outweigh their AFF, it prevents AFF solvency on any of these questions (--) AndWarming threatens human survival Milbrath, 1994 climatologist, 94 (The Futurist, May 1994; Lexis)
Extreme weather conditions may cause population shifts and decreased agricultural output. Humanity might face the ultimate test of survival. Climate modelers have been cautiously predicting that the earth will gradually warm in the years ahead, producing similarly gradual changes in climatic
patterns. For instance, the middle of North America will slowly grow arid.
(--) AndProliferation risks extinction:

Taylor '02 (Stuart Jr., Senior Writer with the National Journal and contributing editor at Newsweek, Legal Times, September
16, L/N) < The
truth is, no matter what we do about Iraq, if we don't stop proliferation another five or ten potentially unstable nations may go nuclear before long, making it ever more likely that one or more bombs will be set off on our soil by terrorists or terrorist governments. Even an airtight missile defense will be useless against a nuke hidden in a truck, a shipping container, or a boat. Unless we get serious about stopping proliferation, we are headed for "a world filled with nuclear-weapons states where every crisis threatens to go nuclear," where "the survival of civilization truly is in question from day to day," and where "it would be impossible to
keep these weapons out of the hands of terrorists, religious cults, and criminal organizations," So writes Ambassador Thomas Graham Jr., a moderate Republican who served as a career arms-controller under six presidents and led the successful Clinton administration effort to extend the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty.
(--) AndDemocracy promotion key to preventing inevitable extinction Diamond, 1995 senior research fellow at Hoover Institution, 95 (Larry, Promoting
Democracy in the 1990s: Actors and Instruments, Issues and Imperatives, A Report to the Carnegie Commission on Preventing Deadly Conflict, December 1995, p. 6) This hardly exhausts the lists of threats to our security and well-being in the coming years and decades. In the former Yugoslavia nationalist aggression tears at the stability of Europe and could easily spread. The flow of illegal drugs
intensifies through increasingly powerful international crime syndicates that have made common cause with authoritarian regimes and have utterly corrupted the institutions of tenuous, democratic ones. Nuclear,
chemical, and biological weapons continue to proliferate. The very source of life on Earth, the global ecosystem, appears increasingly endangered. Most of these new and unconventional threats to security are associated with or aggravated by the weakness or absence of democracy, with its provisions for legality, accountability, popular sovereignty, and openness.
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Latin America Internals: Immigration Reform Key to US-Latin American Relations (--) Immigration reform is key to US-Latin American relationsno issue is as important: Shifter 12 (Michael is the President of Inter-American Dialogue. Remaking the
Relationship: The United States and Latin America, April, IAD Policy Report, http://www.thedialogue.org/PublicationFiles/IAD2012PolicyReportFINAL.pdf, Accessed 1/23/2013, rwg) Still another advance could come through US immigration reform. By better aligning the supply and demand for workers in critical industries and opening new opportunities for millions of currently unauthorized residents, a more pragmatic migration policy would significantly bolster the US economy.
No other single policy measure would more clearly demonstrate US commitment to cooperation with Latin America . The comprehensive reform advocated by both the George W. Bush and the Obama administrations represents the best approach. More modest changes, however, could still be helpful.
Rather than just responding issue by issue, Washington should seek a broader framework for US economic relations with Latin America. While some believe the Free Trade Area of the Americas (FTAA) should be revived, not abandoned, others argue for pursuit of new approaches to economic integration.
(--) Immigration reform key to US-Latin American relations: Charlene Barshefsky, 2008 (Serves on the Board of the
Council on Foreign Relations, U.S.-Latin America Relations: A New Direction for a New Reality, http://www.cfr.org/mexico/us-latin-america-relations/p16279, Accessed 1/23/2013, rwg) Immigration reform is one of the most pressing domestic policy issues facing the United States. It is also a critical issue for U.S.-Latin America relations. The defeat of immigration reform in the U.S. Senate in 2007
suggests that no broad national policy change will be forthcoming in Recommendations 65 the near term. Piecemeal measures implemented by states and cities are no substitute for a coherent federal policy on immigration. The
next president and Congress must face this issue in order to meet U.S. security, economic, and foreign policy interests better.
(--) Immigration reform key to US-Latin American relations: Shifter 12 (Michael is the President of Inter-American Dialogue. Remaking the
Relationship: The United States and Latin America, April, IAD Policy Report, http://www.thedialogue.org/PublicationFiles/IAD2012PolicyReportFINAL.pdf, Accessed 1/23/2013, rwg) Some enduring problems stand squarely in the way of partnership and
effective cooperation. The inability of Washington to reform its broken immigration system is a constant source of friction between the United States and nearly every other country in the Americas . Yet US officials rarely
refer to immigration as a foreign policy issue. Domestic policy debates on 125
Politics DA/Answers SUDI 2013 this issue disregard the United States hemispheric agenda as well as the interests of other nations.
(--) Failure to reform immigration stands in the way of a productive relationship with Latin America: Shifter 12 (Michael is the President of Inter-American Dialogue. Remaking the
Sensible US immigration policies promise to benefit the US economy. Migrants make up a significant percentage of younger workers. Their presence would improve the labor demographic and increase the US capacity for economic growth even while their contributions help sustain the US
social security system. Immigration reform would also recognize the growing Latinoamericanization of the United States. Roughly one sixth of the population is currently of Latino descent. The cultural, demographic and family ties of those 50 million people will continue to deepen. The United
States inability to respond to the policy challenge of immigration will have increasingly negative consequences, standing in the way of a more productive relationship with Latin America.
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Latin American Relations: ATRelations Resilient (--) Relations fail to serve a meaningful purpose noweven if they win no collapse, well win they are useless for our impacts now: Shifter 12 (Michael is the President of Inter-American Dialogue. Remaking the
Relations between the United States and Latin America are at a curious juncture. In the past decade, most Latin American countries have made
enormous progress in managing their economies and reducing inequality and, especially, poverty, within a democratic framework. These critical changes have brought greater autonomy, expanded global links, and growing self-confidence. It is now the United States that is in a sour mood, struggling with a still weak economic recovery, diminished international stature and influence, and fractured politics at home.
These recent changes have profoundly affected Inter-American relations. While relations are today cordial and largely free of the antagonisms of the past, they also seem without vigor and purpose. Effective cooperation in the Americas, whether to deal with urgent problems or to take advantage of new opportunities, has been disappointing.
(--) Cooperation on the impact scenarios is low now: Shifter 12 (Michael is the President of Inter-American Dialogue. Remaking the
Relationship: The United States and Latin America, April, IAD Policy Report, http://www.thedialogue.org/PublicationFiles/IAD2012PolicyReportFINAL.pdf, Accessed 1/23/2013, rwg) What is at stake is the future of inter-American relations, which today are generally cordial but lack vigor and purpose. Efforts at hemispheric integration have been disappointing. Effective cooperation in the Americas
even on widely shared problems like energy security, organized crime and the drug trade, and international economic volatilityremains limited and sporadic.
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(--) Amicable relations arent the same as effective relations: Shifter 12 (Michael is the President of Inter-American Dialogue. Remaking the
Relationship: The United States and Latin America, April, IAD Policy Report, http://www.thedialogue.org/PublicationFiles/IAD2012PolicyReportFINAL.pdf, Accessed 1/23/2013, rwg) In the main, hemispheric relations are amicable. Open conflict is rare and, happily, the sharp antagonisms that marred relations in the past have subsided.
But the US-Latin America relationship would profit from more vitality and direction . Shared interests are not pursued as vigorously as they should be, and opportunities for more fruitful engagement are being missed . Welldeveloped
ideas for reversing these disappointing trends are scarce.
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Latin American RelationsNow Key Time

(--) Failure to act soon on Latin American relations causes strain to worsen: Shifter 12 (Michael is the President of Inter-American Dialogue. Remaking the
If the current state of affairs continues, the strain between the United States and Latin America could worsen , adversely affecting the interests and wellbeing of all in the hemisphere. There is a great deal at stake. This report
offers a realistic assessment of the relationship within a changing regional and global context and sets out an agenda of old and new business that need urgent attention. A collaborative effort should begin immediately at the sixth Summit of the Americas in Cartagena, Colombia.
(--) Failure to act soon will cause relations to drift apartnow is key: Shifter 12 (Michael is the President of Inter-American Dialogue. Remaking the
Relationship: The United States and Latin America, April, IAD Policy Report, http://www.thedialogue.org/PublicationFiles/IAD2012PolicyReportFINAL.pdf, Accessed 1/23/2013, rwg) Despite the multiple opportunities and potential benefits, relations between
the United States and Latin America remain disappointing. If new opportunities are not seized, relations will likely continue to drift apart. The longer the current situation persists, the harder it will be to reverse course and rebuild vigorous cooperation. Hemispheric affairs require urgent attentionboth
from the United States and from Latin America and the Caribbean.
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Latin American Relations: US Actions Key

(--) US must take action on inter-American relations to re-establish trust & credibility: Shifter 12 (Michael is the President of Inter-American Dialogue. Remaking the
Relationship: The United States and Latin America, April, IAD Policy Report, http://www.thedialogue.org/PublicationFiles/IAD2012PolicyReportFINAL.pdf, Accessed 1/23/2013, rwg) Taken together, these developments have serious implications for US-Latin
American relations. There are ample opportunities for deeper engagement and more productive cooperation but, before moving to anything resembling a genuine partnership, it will be necessary to deal more effectively with the long-standing challenges on the inter-American agenda. That is the only way the United States will be able to establish full trust and credibility.
(--) Now is the key timefailure to act now leads to drift in the relationship: Shifter 12 (Michael is the President of Inter-American Dialogue. Remaking the
If the United States and Latin America do not make the effort now, the chance may slip away. The most likely scenario then would be marked by a continued drift in their relationship, further deterioration of hemisphere-wide institutions, a reduced ability and willingness to deal with a range of common problems, and a spate of missed opportunities for more robust growth and greater social equity. The United States and Latin America would go their separate ways, manage their affairs independently of one another, and forego
the opportunities that could be harvested by a more productive relationship. There are risks of simply maintaining the status quo. Urgent problems will inevitably arise that require trust and effective collaboration to resolve. And
there is a chance that tensions between the United States and Latin America could become much worse, adversely affecting everyones interests and wellbeing. It is time to seize the moment and overhaul hemispheric relations.
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Latin American Relations: Even Watered Down Reform Solves

(--) Even minor movement on immigration reform would bolster US-Latin American relations: Shifter 12 (Michael is the President of Inter-American Dialogue. Remaking the
Relationship: The United States and Latin America, April, IAD Policy Report, http://www.thedialogue.org/PublicationFiles/IAD2012PolicyReportFINAL.pdf, Accessed 1/23/2013, rwg) Immigration
Washingtons failure to repair the United States broken immigration system is breeding resentment across the region , nowhere more so than in the principal points of origin and transit: Mexico, Central America, and the Caribbean. Latin Americans find the idea of building a wall on the
US-Mexico border particularly offensive. Despite bitter political battles over immigration in the United States, there
is general agreement about what sensible reform would include. It combines effective border and employer enforcement, the adoption of a general
worker program consistent with labor market needs in the United States,
and a path toward residence and citizenship for the estimated 12 million unauthorized residents living in the country. This package is similar to
the reform effort (unfortunately defeated in Congress) proposed under President George W. Bush. The complicated and divisive politics of the United States, compounded by the weakness of the US economy, have so far blocked this comprehensive approach. But more limited measures such as the Dream Act, allowing children brought to the United States without appropriate documentation an opportunity to qualify for citizenship, would not only be welcomed in US Latino communities and in Latin America, but it would demonstrate
that the issue is being taken seriously and with a measure of compassion in Washington.
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LA Relations (cont.)
132
Latin American RelationsAlternative Energy Impacts

(--) US-Latin American relations key to solve for alternative energy: Charlene Barshefsky, 2008 (Serves on the Board of the Council on Foreign Relations, U.S.-Latin America Relations: A New Direction for a New Reality, http://www.cfr.org/mexico/us-latin-america-relations/p16279, Accessed 1/23/2013, rwg)
U.S. anxieties over dependence on foreign energy resources are usually centered on the Middle East, but the United States relies on the western hemisphere (includingCanada) for nearly half its oil.45 Recently, resurgent resource nationalism, production bottlenecks, and the politicization of energy trade have raised concerns that Latin America may become a less reliable supplier and drive up global energy prices. At the same time, the region presents abundant opportunities for
new investment in traditional and alternative energy resources making it critical that U.S. and Latin American governments both confront the energy challenge and seize the opportunity of greater cooperation. (--) Latin American relations key to development of alternative fuels: Charlene Barshefsky, 2008 (U.S.-Latin America Relations: A New Direction for a New Reality, http://www.cfr.org/mexico/us-latin-america-relations/p16279, Accessed 1/23/2013, rwg) Latin America has never mattered more for the United States. The region is the largest foreign supplier of oil to the United States and a strong partner in the development of alternative fuels . It
is one of the United States fastest-growing trading partners, as well as its biggest supplier of illegal drugs. Latin America is also the largest source of U.S. immigrants, both documented and not. All of this reinforces deep U.S. ties with the regionstrategic, economic, and culturalbut also deep concerns.
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Latin America RelationsBiofuels Impacts

(--) US-Latin American relations allow for the creation of bio-fuels: Charlene Barshefsky, 2008 (Serves on the Board of the
Council on Foreign Relations, U.S.-Latin America Relations: A New Direction for a New Reality, http://www.cfr.org/mexico/us-latin-america-relations/p16279, Accessed 1/23/2013, rwg) The Western Hemisphere produces 80 percent of the worlds biofuels , and a precedent for collaborative leadership has been established by the U.S.-Brazil initiative, which includes cooperation on standards to facilitate trade, technology distribution, andsupport for the development of biofuel production in other countries. The expansion of these industries, aided by U.S.
domestic and foreign policy incentives, can benefit the environment, foster economic development through technology transfer and adaptation, and aid in poverty reduction through job creation in the hemisphere. The Task Force recommends building on the U.S.-Brazil Biofuels Pact to encourage the development of alternative energy in the region. The most important policy steps are domestic, including removing disincentives for hemisphere production and trade in biofuels and creating incentives for U.S. gasdistributors to increase the availability of biofuels.
(--) Latin American relations allow for the production of biofuels: Charlene Barshefsky, 2008 (Serves on the Board of the
Council on Foreign Relations, U.S.-Latin America Relations: A New Direction for a New Reality, http://www.cfr.org/mexico/us-latin-america-relations/p16279, Accessed 1/23/2013, rwg)
Only in the past several years have scarcity in oil markets, environmental awareness, scientific advances, and proactive subsidy policies combined to make biofuels, notably ethanol and biodiesel, reasonably price competitive with petroleum products on a wider scale. Biofuels
now provide an opportunity for Latin America and the United States to assume global leadership in a sector of future competitive and environmental value (namely, decreased greenhouse gas emissions).
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Latin American Relations: Democracy Impact Extensions Democracy at risk in Latin America now: Shifter 12 (Michael is the President of Inter-American Dialogue. Remaking the
Relationship: The United States and Latin America, April, IAD Policy Report, http://www.thedialogue.org/PublicationFiles/IAD2012PolicyReportFINAL.pdf, Accessed 1/23/2013, rwg) C itizen InsecurityLatin America is as violent as any region in the world, even war-ravaged Africa. Few countries have made much headway in containing the surge of criminal violence. In most places, as many polls show, improved security is the publics major concern. The situation in the northern triangle countries of Central AmericaGuatemala, Honduras, and El Salvadoris particularly alarming. There, homicide rates have skyrocketed and unchecked brutality is growing. Democratic
institutions, the rule of law, and economic and social progress are all at risk. The Caribbean countries have also been severely affected and could
face worsening conditions. Latin Americans of all political stripes point fingers at the United States for its failure to curtail its huge demand for drugs, which bankrolls criminal gangs. They also call on the United States to do more to control the southward flow of arms and illicit cash and to reform its policies on immigration and deportations, which aggravate problems of crime and violence.
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Latin America RelationsNuclear Power Impacts

Cooperation with the United States allows for the expansion of nuclear power: Charlene Barshefsky, 2008 (Serves on the Board of the
Council on Foreign Relations, U.S.-Latin America Relations: A New Direction for a New Reality, http://www.cfr.org/mexico/us-latin-america-relations/p16279, Accessed 1/23/2013, rwg) Latin America has also seen resurgent interest in nuclear power. A
little over forty years ago, there appeared to be a genuine risk of a nuclear arms race in the regiona trend that was short-circuited by the establishment of a Nuclear Weapons Free Zone by the 1967 Treaty of Tlatelolco. Since then, Argentina, Brazil, and Mexico have built seven nuclear power plants, although only Argentina has established a strong technical capacity in this areaa capacity that recently has been tapped by Venezuela to explore the possible development of a nuclear energy program of its own. Today there is a compelling argument for the expansion of nuclear energy, which provides base power with zero greenhouse gas emissions, as Brazils construction of new reactors and use of nuclear-powered submarines attest. However, achieving such expansion will require that Latin America address the complex challenges of managing and disposing of uranium and nuclear waste and meeting international standards (especially given concerns overChavezs desire for nuclear-enrichment capability and a relationship with Iran). The Task Force finds that although biofuels will not displace oil and gas, they can help diversify energy choices, lower the energy intensity of national economies, decrease greenhouse gas emissions, and foster greater energy security for the entire hemisphere. While being mindful of the need to guarantee food security, diversifying energy sources could be an important driver of economic development in Latin America as the region becomes an important technology, production, and research hub in the long-term development of a global biofuels market. Expanding nuclear power
would further efforts at energy diversification. Cooperation on such issues provides a unique opportunity for the United States to reengage Latin America proactively, with shared environmental and energy concerns deepening diplomatic relationships.54
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Latin American Relations: Oil Dependence Scenario A) Latin American relations decrease oil dependence on the Middle East: Christopher Sabatini, 6/13/2012 (staff writer, Why the U.S. can't afford to ignore Latin
America,http://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/2012/06/13/why-the-u-s-cant-affordto-ignore-latin-america/, Accessed 1/24/2013, rwg)
There are many other reasons why Latin America is important to U.S. interests. It is a market for more than
20% of U.S. exports. With the notable exception of Cuba, it is nearly entirely governed by democratically elected governments a point that gets repeated ad nauseum at every possible regional meeting. The
Western Hemisphere is a major source of energy that has the highest potential to seriously reduce dependence on Middle East supply . And through
immigration, Latin America has close personal and cultural ties to the United States. These have been boilerplate talking points since the early 1990s.
B) Oil dependency ensures perpetual intervention and global wars Robert Freeman, 2004 writer on economics and education, March 1, 2004,
http://www.commondreams.org/views04/0301-12.htm
As long as the US chooses the Grab the Oil alternative, the implications for national policy are inescapable. The combination of all these facts
fixed supply, rapid depletion, lack of alternatives, severity of consequences, and hostility of current stockholding countriesdrive the US to HAVE to adopt an aggressive (pre-emptive) military posture and to carry out a nakedly colonial expropriation of resources from weaker countries around the world. This is why the US operates some 700 military bases around the world and spends over half a trillion dollars per year on military affairs, more than all the rest of the worldits allies
includedcombined. This is why the Defense Departments latest Quadrennial Review stated, The US must retain the capability to send w ellarmed and logistically supported forces to critical points around the globe, even in the face of enemy opposition. This is why Pentagon brass say internally that current force levels are inadequate to the strategic challenges they face and that they will have to re-instate the draft after the 2004 elections. But the
provocation occasioned by grabbing the oil, especially from nations ideologically hostile to the US, means that military attacks on the US and the recourse to military responses will only intensify until the US is embroiled in unending global conflict.
Latin American relations solve oil dependence: Shifter 12 (Michael is the President of Inter-American Dialogue. Remaking the Relationship: The
United States and Latin America, April, IAD Policy Report, http://www.thedialogue.org/PublicationFiles/IAD2012Policy ReportFINAL.pdf, Accessed 1/23/2013, rwg)
Even a cursory examination of the numbers points to how much the United States depends on the region for oil and minerals. Latin America accounts for a third of US oil imports . Mexico is the second-biggest
supplier after Canada. Venezuela, Brazil, and Colombia sit among the top dozen, and imports from Brazil are poised to rise sharply with its recent offshore discoveries. Within a decade, Brazil and Mexico may be two of the three largest suppliers of oil to the United States. The
potential for heightened energy cooperation in the Americas is
huge, with wide-ranging ramifications for economic well-being and climate change.
137
Latin American RelationsOil Prices Impact

US-Latin American relations solve high oil prices: Charlene Barshefsky, 2008 (Serves on the Board of the
Council on Foreign Relations, U.S.-Latin America Relations: A New Direction for a New Reality, http://www.cfr.org/mexico/us-latin-america-relations/p16279, Accessed 1/23/2013, rwg) There is a unique opportunity in the energy sector for genuine and constructive collaboration and cooperation between Latin American nations and the United States by addressing the growing challenges of
energy security and climate change. Promote Cooperation and Investment in Traditional Energy Sources
In the oil and gas sectors , more effective production and extraction will increase worldwide energy supply and put downward pressure on prices . While U.S. influence is limited (particularly with the growing
role of national oil companies in the region and worldwide), it can encourage two developments. First, the Task Force recommends supporting the creation of subregional and regional energy working groups on the model of the North American Energy Working Group. To depoliticize energy cooperation, such organizations should concentrate on technical issues such as data exchange, electricity connectivity, fuel standards, infrastructure protection, environmental sustainability, and lessons learned. Second, the Task Force recommends that the United States actively support environmentally sustainable energy infrastructure financing in Latin America through multilateral lending institutions and foreign direct investment. In particular, the United States can facilitate funding for the last stages of Perus Camisea natural gas project.
138
Latin American Relations: Poverty Impacts

Immigration reform key to bolstering Latin American economies: Charlene Barshefsky, 2008 (Serves on the Board of the Council on Foreign Relations, U.S.-Latin America Relations: A New Direction for a New Reality, http://www.cfr.org/mexico/us-latin-america-relations/p16279, Accessed 1/23/2013, rwg) Finally, the failures of U.S. immigration policy have become a foreign policy problem. In the United States, immigration is largely considered a domestic policy issue. But given the profound impact that U.S. immigration policy has on many Latin American nations, it is naturally considered a vital issue in their relations with the United States. The tenor of recent immigration debates and the failure to pass
meaningful immigration reform have hurt U.S. standing in the region, asmany Latin American nations (including those without large populations in the United States) perceive current laws as discriminatory and unfair toward their citizens. The Task Force finds that comprehensive immigration reform is necessary to create a system that better meets U.S. security, economic, and foreign policy interests, and must be a priority for the next administration. A system that
offers incentives to migrate legally, to work hard and gain skills while in the United States, and to return to the countries of origin eventually with the acquired capital and skills would not only benefit the United States, it would also foster economic and political development in Latin America. Poverty is endemic in Latin America: Charlene Barshefsky, 2008 (U.S.-Latin America Relations: A New Direction for a New Reality, http://www.cfr.org/mexico/us-latin-america-relations/p16279, Accessed 1/23/2013, rwg)
Despite the widespread liberalization of Latin American markets and the initiation of targeted development aid programs, nearly 200 million Latin Americans37 percent of the regions populationstill
live in poverty, and the region remains one of the most income-unequal in the world. The resulting socioeconomic barriers hinder U.S. interests
by spawning political polarization and social turmoil, exposing the vulnerability of already weak state institutions,5 fueling violence, and hindering economic growth. Poverty and inequality have also undermined support for democracy, as Washingtons traditional focus on free and fair elections in its democracy promotion efforts has proved insufficient to address fundamental concerns about economic and physical security. LatinAmericas citizens rightly expect democracy to deliver more equality, social justice, and prosperitynot just formal representation.
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Latin American relations key to solve poverty: Charlene Barshefsky, 2008 (U.S.-Latin America Relations: A New Direction
for a New Reality, http://www.cfr.org/mexico/us-latin-america-relations/p16279, Accessed 1/23/2013, rwg)
Rather than an exhaustive study of U.S.-Latin America relations and policies, this report does not reprise many long-standing initiatives or the intricacies of each bilateral relationship. Nor, given Latin Americas complexity and level of development, does it seek to define the entire U.S. approach with one overarching grand idea. Instead, the Task
Force identifies four critical issues and four strategic relationships that merit special attentionat thispoint in time. Poverty and inequality , public security, human mobility, and energy security represent fundamental challenges and opportunities for the region and for U.S.-Latin America relations . These factors affect traditional U.S. objectives of democracy
promotion, economic expansion, and counternarcotics. They also reflect new policy issues arising from the increasing societal and economic integration of the Western Hemisphere. In addition, the Task Force calls for the deepening of theUnited States relationswithMexico and Brazil, and the redefining of relations with Venezuela and Cuba.
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Latin American Relations: Soft Power Impacts

Latin American relations key to US soft power: Christopher Sabatini, 6/13/2012 (staff writer, Why the U.S. can't afford to ignore Latin
But the
need to shore up our allies and recognize legitimate threats south of the Rio Grande goes to the heart of the U.S. changing role in the world and its strategic interests within it. Here are three reasons why the U.S. must include Latin America in its strategic calculations: 1. Today, pursuing a global foreign policy requires regional allies. Recently, countries with emerging economies have appeared to be taking positions diametrically opposed to the U.S. when it comes to matters of global governance and human rights. Take, for example, Russia and Chinas stance on Syria, rejecting calls for intervention. Another one of the BRICS, Brazil, tried to stave off the tightening of U.N. sanctions on Iran two years ago. And last year, Brazil also voiced its official opposition to intervention in Libya, leading political scientist Randall Schweller to refer to Brazil as a rising spoiler. At a time of (perceived) declining U.S. influence, its important that America deepens its ties with regional allies that might have been once taken for granted. As emerging nations such as Brazil clamor for permanent seats on the U.N. Security Council and more representatives in the higher reaches of the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund, the U.S. will need to integrate them into global decision-making rather than isolate them. If not, they could be a thorn in the side of the U.S. as it tries to implement its foreign policy agenda. Worse, they
could threaten to undermine efforts to defend international norms and human rights.
Brazil & Venezuela can threaten US soft power: Christopher Sabatini, 6/13/2012 (staff writer, Why the U.S. can't afford to ignore Latin
Its also clear that countries such as Brazil and Venezuela present their own challenges to U.S. influence in the region and even on the world forum . The U.S. must embed its Latin America relations in the conceptual framework and strategy that it has for the rest of the world, rather than just
focus on human rights and development as it often does toward southern neighbors such as Cuba.
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Latin America Relations: Solar-Wind Impacts

(--) Close partnerships with Latin America allows for the development of solar & wind technologies Charlene Barshefsky, 2008 (Serves on the Board of the
Council on Foreign Relations, U.S.-Latin America Relations: A New Direction for a New Reality, http://www.cfr.org/mexico/us-latin-america-relations/p16279, Accessed 1/23/2013, rwg) As the United States and other nations look to diversify their energy sources and reduce dependence on oil, Latin America presents a unique opportunity for engagement and cooperation. Latin America already leads the United States in the production and use of hydroelectric power, which supplies 23 percent of its energy needs (as compared to less than 3 percent in the United States).50 The region has also made investments in solar- and wind-powered technologies, particularly in
Argentina,Brazil, andChile.Cooperationonalternative energy research and production could become an important component of U.S.-Latin America relations in the years ahead. Partnering with Latin American
nations in the development of alternative energy sources would allow the United States to build and deepen diplomatic relationships through joint initiatives on development, climate change, and environmental sustainability. Two areas in particularbiofuels and nuclear energy
present important and immediate opportunities.
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Latin American Relations: Warming Impact Scenario Cooperation with Latin America key to solve warmingAmazon makes the region uniquely key: Shifter 12 (Michael is the President of Inter-American Dialogue. Remaking the
Many countries in the region give priority to climate change challenges. This may position them as a voice in international debates on this topic. The importance of the Amazon basin to worldwide climate concerns gives Brazil and five other South American nations a special role to play .
Mexico already has assumed a prominent position on climate change and is active in global policy debates. Brazil organized the first-ever global environmental meeting in 1992 and, this year, will host Rio+20. Mexico hosted the second international meeting on climate change in Cancn in 2010. The United States is handicapped by its inability to devise a climate change policy. Still, it should support coordination on the presumption
of shared interests on a critical policy challenge.
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AT: Theory
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AT: Non-Intrinsic: Pass the Plan and Do your scenario

Intrinsicness is illegitimate and a voting issue: 1) Decimates disad ground: allows them to just wish away the impact to any disad. 2) Makes the AFF not topical: The intrinsicness answer is not topical, proves the resolution alone is inadequate to solve and is a reason to vote negative. 3) Begs the question of political capitalpolitical capital is an intrinsic resource of Obama: if we prove the plan trades off with that, it is an intrinsic disad. 4) Makes the AFF a moving target: NEG needs a fixed target to shoot at in order to promote clash and in-depth education 5) Politics is core negative disad groundmentioned in the topic paper and literature is AFF biasedNEG needs the politics disad to offset. 6) Debating politics is educationalteaches us about how government functions and about relevant pieces of legislation of the daytheir argument wishes politics disads away. (--) Capital is an intrinsic resource that sets the parameters of the Presidents agenda
Light, Brookings Governance Studies senior fellow, 99 [Paul Light, Senior Fellow of Governance Studies, Director of the Center for Public Service the Presidents Agenda: Domestic Policy Choice from Kennedy to Clinton, 3rd Edition p. 34 EJONES]
In chapter 2, I will consider just how capital affects the basic parameters of the domestic agenda. Though the internal resources are important contributors to timing and size, capital remains the cirtical factor. That conclusion will become essential in understanding the domestic agenda. Whatever the Presidents personal expertise, character, or skills, capital is the most important
resource. In the past, presidential scholars have focused on individual factors in discussing White House decisions, personality being the dominant factor. Yet, given low levels in presidential capital, even the most positive and most active executive could make little impact. A president can be skilled, charming, charismatic, a veritable legislative wizard, but if he does not have the basic congressional strength, his domestic agenda will be severely restricted capital affects both the number and the content of the Presidents priorities. Thus, it is capital that determines whether the President will have the opportunity to offer a detailed domestic program, whether he will be restricted to a series of limited initiatives and vetoes. Capital sets the basic parameters of the agenda, determining the size of the agenda and guiding the criteria for choice. Regardless of the Presidents personality, capital is the central force behind the
domestic agenda.
Politics tests a key opportunity cost

Saideman, associate professor of political science - McGill University, 7/25/11 (Steve, Key Constraint on Policy Relevance, http://duckofminerva.blogspot.com/2011/07/key-constraint-on-policy-relevance.html)
Dan Drezner has a great post today about how the
foreign policy smart set (his phrase) gets so frustrated by domestic politics that they tend to recommend domestic political changes that are never going to happen. I would go one step further and suggest that one of the key problems for scholars who want to be relevant for policy debates is
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that we tend to make recommendations that are "incentive incompatible." I love that phrase. What is best for policy may not be what is best for politics, and so we may think we have a good idea about what to recommend but get frustrated when our ideas do not get that far. Lots of folks talking about early warning about genocide, intervention into civil wars and the like blame "political will." That countries lack, for whatever reason, the compulsion to act. Well, that is another way of saying that domestic politics matters, but we don't want to think about it. Dan's piece contains an implication which is often false--that IR folks have little grasp of domestic politics. Many IR folks do tend to ignore or simplify the domestic side too much, but there is plenty of scholarship on the domestic determinants of foreign
policy/grand strategy/war/trade/etc. Plenty of folks look at how domestic institutions and dynamics can cause countries to engage in sub-optimal foreign policies (hence the tradeoff implied in my second book--For Kin or Country). The
challenge, then, is to figure out what would be a cool policy and how that cool policy could resonate with those who are relevant domestically. That is not easy, but it is what is necessary. To be policy relevant requires both parts-articulating a policy alternative that would improve things and some thought about how the alternative could be politically appealing. Otherwise, we can just dream about the right policy and gnash our teeth when it never happens.
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AT: Say No
1) Counter-interpretation: Judge should act as an independent agent assessing whether or not the plan should be done. Judge shouldnt operate as an individual member of Congressif the plan would drain away from Obamas ability to pass other legislation, it is a bad idea. 2) Argument makes zero sense: Politicians consider political consequences of actionsan individual representative could vote no BECAUSE of the political consequences of the plan. 3) Process cant be distinguished from substance: Whether the plan is a good idea in part depends on whether or not it is the right time to do the plan. 4) Politics is core negative disad groundmentioned in the topic paper and literature is AFF biasedNEG needs the politics disad to offset. 5) Debating politics is educationalteaches us about how government functions and about relevant pieces of legislation of the daythey wish the disad away.
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AT: Plan is Bottom of the Docket

This is self-serving and a voting issue: 1) Counter-interpretation: the plan should happen at the nearest available opportunitywhich means moving it to the top of the docket. 2) Alternative interpretation allows for delays around any disad: they can delay until the economy recovers, we pull out of Afghanistan, etc. destroys negative disad ground. 3) Their interpretation destroys uniqueness debates: delaying off into the future means we cant debate issues in their current context. 4) We arent being absurd: we arent saying the plan has to happen Sunday night or in the middle of a breakwere saying the plan has to happen in the current political context so we can debate it. 5) Bottom of the docket means the plan will be pushed off forevertheir inherency evidence says the plan is unlikely to happen and will be de-prioritizedvote negative on presumption. 6) Not reciprocal: only destroys negative disad ground. 7) We dont defend immediacyonly nearest available opportunity.
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AFF Immigration Reform 2ac Front-Line

Immigration reform wont pass nowthree reasons: Sean Sullivan, 6/21/2013 (staff writer, Three signs of trouble for immigration reform
in the House, Retrieved 6/22/2013 from http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/thefix/wp/2013/06/21/three-signs-of-trouble-for-immigration-reform-in-the-house/)
But over in the House is a different picture. There
are some emerging signs of trouble on the other side of the Capitol for comprehensive reform advocates. Here are the three biggest ones: 1. An unruly GOP Conference: The Houses failure to pass a farm bill Thursday was a stark reminder that the lower chambers Republican Conference just cant be led right now. Most Democrats voted against the bill, but they were
joined by enough conservatives who opposed it from the right to sink the measure. From the Plan B debacle in last years de bate over tax rates to a recent effort to ban abortions after 20 weeks, the conservative wing of the House has made its voice heard on multiple occasions. So if the Senate passes an immigration bill by a wide margin, it remains to be seen whether that impresses anyone on the conservative side of the GOP Conference enough to shift their views. Given the track record of House Republicans, it could be a hard sell even if the Senate bill gets 70+ votes. 2.
Boheners Hastert Rule remark: House Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio) vowed this week not to bring an immigration bill to the floor that did not have the support of a majority of House Republicans. Setting such a condition in advance only narrows the path to passage. Boehner didnt rule out
relying on Democrats to pass a final version of immigration legislation that could be negotiated between the House and the Senate. But the last thing he needs right now for his own political future is to stoke more anger within his conference. Boehner will face pressure from Senate Republicans, donors, and other GOP players to get immigration reform done. But hes making clear early that despite all that, hes not going to walk away from his conference to get a deal done. And that hard line will make it more difficult for reform to happen, given the opposition on the right to pillars of the Senate bill. 3. The
GOP primary threat: This isnt new this week but it bears repeating, because, as the gun debate showed, it doesnt matter what public opinion says or what other external factors exist, members of Congress will ultimately prioritize the outlook of their constituents over whichever way the national conversation is leaning. If they dont, they up the chances of losing
their jobs. Redistricting has contributed to a situation in which many House Republicans represent safe GOP districts in which the threat of a primary is worth more worry than being defeated in the general election. A
vote for immigration reform could become an easy way for potential challengers to get to the right of incumbents in some Republican districts. And rest assured, GOP members will not lose sight of that.
(--) Obama has no capital for immigration reform: Fred Barnes, 4/22/2013 (staff writer, The Decline of Obama,
http://www.weeklystandard.com/articles/decline-obama_716280.html?page=1, Accessed 4/25/2013, rwg)
But theres something else involved as well. Under Obama, the presidency has been in decline. His use of the budget as a ploy against Republicans is an example of this. The biggest domestic issue is the looming fiscal crisis, but Obama has addressed it only rhetorically. Instead hes used the budget largely as a political tool that cheapened the presidency. Other presidents have done this, but far less crassly or brazenly. At least they presented their budgets on time, as required by law. Obama was two months late. He erased one of Washingtons oldest adages: The president proposes, Congress disposes. By last week, both the Senate and House had already passed budget resolutions. Obamas tardiness touches on another aspect of presidential decline: the loss of influence. By long tradition, any release of the budget produced by the White House was a major event. True, the impact of the presidents budget has waned in recent years. Obama has made it an afterthought. On
Capitol Hill today, Obama has scarcely any clout at all . One reason: He acts as if spending time
with members of Congress, even Democrats, is an unpleasant chore. Another reason: Having deferred to Democrats in his first term, he finds it difficult to pull rank on them in his second. And having ignored or alienated Republicans, he isnt likely to achieve much by courting them over dinner in recent weeks. Immigration
and gun control are the dominant issues in Congress at the moment, and Obama is a major player on neither of them. The gang of eightfour Democrats, four Republicansis the driving force on immigration in the Senate. Obama is no force at all.
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(--) Obama has no PC now and winners win: Amie Parnes, 3/20/2013 (staff writer, Obama honeymoon may be over,
http://thehill.com/homenews/administration/289179-obama-honeymoon-may-be-over, Accessed 4/24/2013, rwg)
The second-term honeymoon for President Obama is beginning to look like it is over. Obama, who was riding high after his reelection win in November, has seen his poll numbers take a precipitous fall in recent weeks. A CNN poll released Tuesday showed Obamas favorability rating underwater, with 47 percent approving and 50 percent disapproving of Obamas handling of his job. Much of the presidents agenda is stuck, with climate change regulations delayed, immigration reform mired in committee negotiations and prospects for a grand bargain budget deal in limbo at best. On Tuesday, in a decision that underscored Obamas depleting political capital , the White House watched as Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) announced only a watered-down version of Obamas gun control proposals would be considered on the Senate floor. Republicans, sensing the sea change, are licking their chops. They
point to the lack of movement on Obamas signature issues, noting the contrast to the ambitious plans outlined in the early weeks of h is second term. The president set very high goals for himself during his State of the Union, but the reality is very little of h is agenda is actually moving, Republican strategist Ron Bonjean said. He allowed himself to get caught up in the legislative quicksand, [and] the cement is beginning to harden. History isnt on Obamas side. The last four presidents who won a second term all saw their poll numbers slide by mid-March with the exception of Bill Clinton, whose numbers improved in the four months following his reelection. Clinton may have only been delaying the inevitable. His numbers dropped 5 points in April 1994. Even Ronald Reagan, buoyed by a dominant performance over Walter Mondale in the 1984 election, saw a double-digit erosion by this point in his second term. Obama has yet to complete the first 100 days of his second term. But without
a signature achievement since his reelection, he faces a crossroads that could define the remainder of his presidency. White House aides maintain that the 24-hour news cycle makes comparisons to previous presidents
difficult. I think the nature of our politics now is different than Ronald Reagans honeymoon, one senior administration official said. The ebb and flow of politics doesnt follow that model anymore. But observers say a drop in popularity is typical for second-termers. There may be some typical second -term honeymoon fade happening, said Martin Sweet, an assistant visiting professor of political science at Northwestern University. Honeymoon pe riods for incumbents are a bit more ephemeral. But like most other presidents, Sweet added, Obamas fate is tied to the economy. Continuing economic progress would ultimately strengthen the president but if we are hit with a double-dip recession, then Obamas numbers will crater, he said. The White House disputes any notion that Obama has lost any political capital in recent weeks. The president set out an ambitious agenda and hes doing big things that are not easy, from immigration to gun control, the senior administration official said. Those are policies you cant rack up easily, and no one here is naive about that. The White House is aware that the clock is ticking to push its hefty agenda, but the official added, The clock is not ticking because of presidents political capital. The clock is ticking because theres a timetable in achieving all of this. [Lawmakers] are not going to sign on because the presidents popular. And administration officials believe they still have the leverage. Theres a decent amount of momentum behind all of this, the official said. It looks like immigration is closer [to passage] than ever before. Republican strategist Ken Lundberg argued that current budget fights have cut short the presidents second -term honeymoon. He said this could also hurt the presidents party, warning the lower the presidents approval rating, the bigger the consequence for vulnerable Democrats. Voters want solutions, and if they see the president headed down the wrong path, lockstep lawmakers will be punished in 2014, he said. Democratic strategist Chris Kofinis maintained that as long as hes president, Obama still has the leverage. Immigration reform doesnt get impacted by whether Obamas poll numbers are 55 or 45, Kofinis said. D oes it make certain things a little more difficult? Possibly. But while his numbers may have fallen, hes still more likeable than the Republicans are on their best day. Kofinis said the real question for Obama is what kind of emphasis hes going to plac e on his second term because the public will have less patience than they did during his first. The challenge in a second term is the American people look at certain things and have a higher tolerance in a second term, he said. When they know youre not running for reelection again, they hold you to a higher standard. Bonjean and other
Republicans are aware that Obama could potentially bounce back from his latest slip in the polls and regain his footing. He has the opportunity to take minor legislative
victories and blow them up into major accomplishments meaning if he got something on gun control, he can tout that that was part of his agenda and the work isnt over. If he were able to strike a grand bargain with Republicans, thatd be a
legacy issue.
House will block immigration reform: Andrew Johnson, 4/23/2013 (staff writer, Paul to Ingraham: Immigration Reform
Must Pass GOP-Controlled House Too, http://www.nationalreview.com/346451/paulingraham-immigration-reform-must-pass-gop-controlled-house, Accessed 4/24/2013, rwg)
Senator Rand Paul joined Laura Ingraham on her radio show today to tell the
group of senators working on immigration reform to make sure it appeals to House Republicans, particularly in regards to a pathway to citizenship. This isnt passing unless it gets through a conservative House. Unless they ram it through with all Democrats in the House and a few Republicans, its not going to pass, Paul said. I think thats an important part of this that the Gang of Eight is going to have to figure out. Ive told them this repeatedly in private and in public, If you have a new pathway, youre making it hard for any conservatives to get on board with this, he added.
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Piecemeal reform solves: Prerna Lal, 2/22/2013 (Law Clerk at Benach Ragland LLP, How the GOP Can Win on
Immigration Reform, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/prerna-lal/how-the-gop-can-winon-immigration_b_2670348.html, Accessed 4/24/2013, rwg)
As such, immigration legislation is likely to move only when the House leadership realizes it is in their best interest to lead on the issue. House Speaker Rep. John Boehner
and Majority Leader Rep. Eric Cantor are hinting at piecemeal reform as a viable solution that would break up the mammoth comprehensive immigration bill into more manageable pieces. Such a move would bring up popular immigration bills like the DREAM Act and STEM for a vote, giving certain groups more victories, and momentum. Data suggest that this would also translate into providing the GOP with the bit of traction that they need to win back the House for years to come. And given that "comprehensive" is now the Democrat partyline, a strong piecemeal approach by the Republicans would leave the Democrats hapless in the Senate with the empty and meaningless rhetoric of "comprehensive immigration reform" while
showing the public that the Republicans are not only willing to compromise on the issue, but willing to lead the way.
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1ar Wont Pass

(--) Extend our Sullivan evidence it says the GOP in the House wont come around to voting for immigration reformprefer our evidence it is predictive and not just a snapshot. (--) Republicans wont support immigration at the end of the day: Michael Tomasky, 4/24/2013 (staff writer, Republicans: An Immovable Wall of
Nays, http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2013/04/24/republicans-an-immovablewall-of-nays.html, Accessed 4/25/2013, rwg)
This brings me back to immigration. The Tsarnaevs may not have derailed things, but other cracks are starting to show.
Last Thursdaybefore we knew who the Boston bombers wereRush Limbaugh speculated that immigration
Politico article yesterday made the same pointan analysis showed that if 11 million undocumented residents had been able to vote in 2012, Obama might have won Arizona and would even have made a race of it in Texas. This did not go unremarked in right-wing circles yesterday. The Big Bloviator himself weighed in: Senator Schumer can taste this. Hes so excited. All the Democrats.
reform would constitute Republican suicide. A Why would we agree to something that they are so eager to have? Immigration is the one area today on which a small number of Republicans are actually trying. Limbaughs position last week is a change from a couple of months ago, when Marco Rubio had him admittin g that maybe the GOP needed to embrace reform. Its not hard to imagine him and Laura Ingraham and others turning surlier as the hour of truth on the bill approaches. I
will be impressed and more than a little surprised if the day comes and a majority of Republicans back an immigration bill. Passing such a bill is undoubtedly in their self-interest, as everyone has observed. What fewer have observed is that doing so is just not in their DNA. And life teaches us that genes usually get the better of reason.
(--) Wont get a vote in the House JOHN BRESNAHAN and JAKE SHERMAN, 4/14/13 (staff writers, Mitch
McConnell in no mood for bipartisanship, http://www.politico.com/story/2013/04/bipartisanship-tempered-by-toxic-relationships90043.html?hp=t1, Accessed 4/24/2013, rwg)
From the outside, this spring has shaped up to be a season of bipartisanship on Capitol Hill. Gangs of senators have hashed out agreements on guns and immigration. President Barack Obama has had two dinners with Senate Republicans and traveled to the Hill to meet with lawmakers from both chambers. But the good feelings have really been only in the Senate, and only among a minority of Republicans to boot. Toxic
relationships between party leaders and partisan realities remain as strong as ever. Senate Minority Leader
Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), for instance, still hasnt gotten over feeling burned by Decembers traumatic fiscal cliff showdown. He has signaled privately that he has no interest in even sitting in the same room as Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) to discuss a possible grand bargain on budget and tax issues, Senate insiders tell POLITICO. McConnell is fine with talking to Obama just talking at this point but he doesnt want Reid there when it happens. And while
the leaders dont get along, relationships among the other 98 senators will be tested when voting begins on the controversial gun and immigration measures
starting with this weeks expected vote on expanding background checks for firearms purch ases. McConnell plans to pull out all the stops to block the bill, and GOP
senators are blasting any immigration plan that they say smells of amnesty. Thats just the Senate. House Republicans, their own seats made even safer by redistricting, are in no hurry bring up immigration, gun control or revenue issues or cave into the Obama administration or Democrats. In May,
House Republicans will hold what they are dubbing a special conference to plan for the summers policy fights with Democrat s, similar to their January meeting in Williamsburg, Va., where they successfully recalibrated early year budget fights, according to GOP leaders hip aides. I dont see this as a wave and theres something in the water that has us changed, said Rep. James Lankford of Oklahoma, chairman of the House Republican Policy Committee. Democratic Rep. Chris Van Hollen of Maryland seemed to agree. On top Democrat on the Budget Committee. 9
the House side, unfortunately you got a very knee-jerk ideologically rigid caucus for the most part, said Van Hollen, the
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(--) Wont pass: opposition from both Democrats and Republicans: Katie DeLong, 4/7/2013 (staff writer, Senate to debate bi-partisan immigration reform
proposal Wednesday, http://fox6now.com/2013/04/07/congress-returns-from-breakmonday-immigration-reform-tops-agenda/, Accessed 4/24/2013, rwg)
Gang of Eight may be ideologically diverse, but that doesnt mean there wont be significant resistance to the plan once its released especially among wary conservatives. GOP base voters remain vehemently opposed to any plan which could be construed as amnesty for those who entered the country illegally. Liberal Democrats, meanwhile, remain concerned that conservatives will never agree the countrys southern border is secure, and will try to use that issue to continually deny citizenship to undocumented residents. In the Senate, Alabama Republican Jeff Sessions and others have repeatedly expressed the fear that
Senate resistance The Democratic leaders will try to ram the Gang of Eights plan through before other members have a chance to properly consider t he bill.
(--) Non-Unique: conservatives wont compromise on immigration reform: Associated Press, 4/14/2013 (RNC splits on deals as Congress weighs
compromises, www.foxnews.com/politics/2013/04/14/rnc-splits-on-deals-as-congressweighscompromises/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+ foxnews%2Fpolitics+(Internal+-+Politics+-+Text, Accessed 4/24/2013, rwg)
--A
bipartisan Senate group agreed, despite outcry from some conservative Republicans, on an immigration proposal to allow those who arrived in the U.S. illegally before 2012 to apply for legal status and ultimately citizenship,
provided they meet other criteria. --A separate group of Senate Republicans and Democrats voted to allow debate on a measure that would subject more gun buyers to background checks, beating back an effort by conservative Republicans and the National Rifle Association to thwart the legislation. --Obama released a budget proposal that includes provisions to slow the growth of spending for Social Security and Medicare, cuts Republicans have long advocated, in return for raising taxes on upper incomes, extending an olive branch of sorts to the GOP. All
that had some GOP activists at the gathering fretting that such deal-making is exacerbating a credibility problem within the party's rank and file. These Republicans worry that the party already has ceded too much to Obama. They cited Republicans voting in Obama's first term to authorize increasing the nation's debt ceiling, and the "fiscal cliff" debate
in which a minority of House Republicans agreed to Obama's demand for income tax hikes on the wealthiest Americans. "People saw us as the compromise party that kept on buckling," Iowa Republican Party Chairman A.J. Spiker said. "It sends the message that people cannot trust us on our principles." The
RNC chairman is among those showing little willingness to budge. "When it comes to compromise, I think our party has done its fair share, and it doesn't seem like we get a whole lot in return," Priebus told The Associated Press this week. "The president has proven to be a person that generally does things for political
purposes and gain ... in order to make the greater point that somehow the Republicans aren't coming on board."
(--) Partisanship is high now: JOHN BRESNAHAN and JAKE SHERMAN, 4/14/13 (staff writers, Mitch
McConnell in no mood for bipartisanship, http://www.politico.com/story/2013/04/bipartisanship-tempered-by-toxic-relationships90043.html?hp=t1, Accessed 4/24/2013, rwg)
Such is life in Congress, where hope
of bipartisanship is giving way to the same old toxic relations . From the
outside, the Senate appeared to have the bipartisan thing down this spring: so called gangs of senators have hashed out agr eements on guns and immigration. President Barack Obama has had two dinners with Senate Republicans and traveled up to the Hill to meet with lawmakers from both chambers. But the
good feelings have really been only in the Senate, and only among a minority of Republicans to boot. Bad blood remains between party leaders and the national partisan realities havent changed.
(--) Conservatives bashing immigration reform now: JOHN BRESNAHAN and JAKE SHERMAN, 4/14/13 (staff writers, Mitch
McConnell in no mood for bipartisanship, 154
Politics DA/Answers SUDI 2013 http://www.politico.com/story/2013/04/bipartisanship-tempered-by-toxic-relationships90043.html?hp=t1, Accessed 4/24/2013, rwg)

On the immigration front, while the bipartisan Gang of Eight that includes Durbin and Sens. Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) and Marco Rubio (R-Fla.), have the outline of a deal that could reach the Senate floor this summer, the
knives are already out from the right as amnesty for illegal immigrants. Sen. Jeff Sessions (R-Ala.) blasted the proposal on Fox News Sunday, and Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas, a GOP rising star, has also criticized the plan.
(--) Immigration reform wont make it to Obamas desk: The Hill, 3/9/2013 (Crucial stretch for Obama,
http://thehill.com/opinion/editorials/289159-crucial-stretch-for-obama, Accessed 4/24/2013, rwg) President Obama has a big second-term agenda, but he faces a make-or-break stretch during the
next couple of months on two big issues. He has made gun control and immigration reform top priorities, but neither is close to getting to his desk.
(--) Wont pass: friction between unions and the Chamber of Commerce: The Hill, 3/9/2013 (Crucial stretch for Obama,
http://thehill.com/opinion/editorials/289159-crucial-stretch-for-obama, Accessed 4/24/2013, rwg)
The immigration Gang of Eight this week vowed to release bill language next month. By all accounts, those promises are expected to be kept. But there has been friction on the issue between important stakeholders, the AFL-CIO and the U.S. Chamber of Commerce. If those differences are not resolved, the bill will teeter.
(--) Wont pass: 4 reasons-Alex Altman, 3/20/2013 (staff writer, Four Hurdles That Could Block Immigration
Reform, http://swampland.time.com/2013/03/20/four-hurdles-that-could-blockimmigration-reform/, Accessed 4/24/2013, rwg)
The next few months offer the best chance in a generation for the two parties to solve a problem that has bedeviled Congress like few others.
Both sides agree the U.S. immigration system is broken. Both would seem to gain from a deal that clears a pathway out of legal oblivion for the nations 11 million illegal immigrants. Support is building for a landmark pact. But while negotiations are progressing in both the House and Senate, an agreement is a long way off. As the talks grow more detailed, obstacles to a deal may begin to emerge: Problem #1: The Gang of Eight The first snag lurks in
the Senate, where the so-called Gang of Eight has huddled privately since the election in hopes of hammering out a bill. Members have crafted a set of measures that would create a pathway to citizenship for the nations estimated 11 million undocumented immigrants within about 13 years while requiring them to register with federal authorities, pay back taxes and fines, learn English and undergo background checks. The deal, both sides agree, would also beef up border security and determine how the future flow of immigrants will be regulated to match the needs of the economy. (MORE: Rand Paul Embraces Immigration Reform) The Gangs closed conclaves have been marked by Vatican-style secrecy, often a sign of progress in a town where silence is rare. The Gangs members Republicans Marco Rubio, Lindsey Graham, John McCain and Jeff Flake, and Democrats Chuck Schumer, Dick Durbin, Bob Menendez and Michael Bennet have, by all accounts, developed a rapport. You can tell by the tone of their voices, says an elected Democrat briefed on the progress of the private talks. But the broad themes are the easy part.
The full bill will stretch to hundreds of pages, each peppered with detailed provisions that could spike it. Members bring clashing political imperatives and ideologies to the talks. Rubio, for example, is
trying to repair the GOPs tattered image with Hispanic voters without sparking a backlash among the movement conservatives hed need in a presidential bid. Graham, who faces a probable primary challenge in 2014, has a habit of basking in the bipartisan spotlight before bolting when negotiations intensify. The measure of the Gang of Eights success isnt whether they are aligned at the start of their talks. Its whether they are all aligned at the end. Problem
#2: The Lobbyists A few years ago, an impasse between the leaders of the Chamber of Commerce and the AFL-CIO helped scupper an immigration-reform bill backed by President George W. Bush. At that time, business and labor could not agree on how many visas to grant low skilled workers who make the
construction, agriculture and hotel and restaurant industries hum. The Chamber wanted cheap labor, but didnt want workers to stay; unions were concerned about protecting citizens jobs. Soon after, reform collapsed. This time the two groups have nurtured an unlikely alliance. There has been a sea change, says a labor source close to the discussions. Nudged by Graham and Sc humer, the two lobbies released a set of shared principles, including one stating that Americans should get first crack at available jobs and that businesses should have the flexibility to hire to meet the demands of the market. But history could repeat itself again. The two sides call for a new federal agency charged with setting
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visa levels, but they have yet to agree on whos eligible or how the new bureau will work. The issue of future flow has been a stubborn sticking point before. And it is as easy to imagine conservatives balking at efforts to create a new government agency as it is to foresee unions drawing a line at a small number of foreign workers. (MORE: Committee to Save the GOP Says Pass Comprehensive Immigration Reform, Become Inclusive to Gays or Keep Losing) Problem
#3: House Republicans Even if Senate negotiators can come up with a package to get 60 votes in the upper chamber, the question continues to be, how does it get through the House? says Frank Sharry, an expert on immigration reform. As in the Senate, a bipartisan cluster of eight representatives
from across the ideological spectrum have been secretly meeting for months. Congressman Luis Gutierrez, an Illinois Democrat who has long been a leader on immigration reform, is full of praise for the new tack taken by his Republican counterparts. But, he acknowledges, You
still
have to put those votes on the board, and thats going to be a real, real test in the House of
Representatives. For their part, Republicans say the partys old dogma, which held that illegal immigrants should self-deport and then go to the back of the line, is not viable policy. Even many immigration hard-liners say they want to help shape comprehensive reform. Its time for us to belly up to the bar, says Ted Poe, the Texas Republican who chairs the House immigration reform caucus. But for conservatives, amnesty remains a dirty word. A bill thats basically amnesty, that says youre here and youre going to be a citizen those two things are not going to come out of this conservative House, says Poe. Even citizenship is charged enough that Republican Senator Rand Paul, who gave a speech March 19 backing a path to legalization for undocumented immigrants, avoided using the term. Many House Republicans, including several in the Judiciary Committee through which a bill must pass, have a long history of antipathy to amnesty, and only a grassroots rebellion to fear as next years primaries approach. Then there is the reality that even if Republicans were to be widely supportive of amnesty, very few of those new citizens are likely to abandon the Democratic Party anytime soon. Republicans face a choice: do they ditch their princip les and go all out in a failing attempt to outpander Democrats? asks Rosemary Jenks, director of government relations at NumbersUSA, which advocates for lower immigration levels. Its becoming very clear to Republicans in Congress that this is not going to get them the Hispanic vote. (MORE: The Plight of the Illegal Nanny) Problem
#4: The Democrats Little discussed but also looming is the possibility that Democrats drag their feet on reform. Liberals will balk if the path to citizenship is too long or too onerous, or if enforcement provisions are too rigid. Many conservatives also suspect that Democratic power brokers, despite their daily hammering of Republicans to get moving on immigration reform, would privately prefer to keep the issue as a cudgel than actually pass a law. Barack Obama wants to make a bill come out of the Senate that is so far out there that it would
never pass, so that he can blame us for not being compassionate and use the issue to take back the House in 2014, says a Hou se Republican. Even some liberals see this as a plausible scenario. Theres always a lingering doubt in my mind, admits one House Democrat. Obama knows that putting his fingerprints on the deal is an easy way to kill it; when a draft of his proposal leaked in the press, he called Republican negotiators individually to apologize. But if negotiations in Congress bog down, he may not be so hands off.
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1ar: Obama Has No Political Capital

(--) Extend our Barnes evidenceObama is out of political capitalObama isnt a major player on either guns or immigrationthis also takes out their internal link as Obama isnt pushing immigration. (--) Obama cant effectively use the bully pulpit: Fred Barnes, 4/22/2013 (staff writer, The Decline of Obama,
http://www.weeklystandard.com/articles/decline-obama_716280.html?page=1, Accessed 4/25/2013, rwg)
The bully pulpit has served Obama poorly, as it has every president since Reagan. Obama, however, was expected to be more eloquent than his predecessors, thus able to generate enthusiasm for his initiatives. If anything, hes generating indifference. His speeches on health care failed to stop Obamacare from losing popularity. His speeches on gun control failed similarly.
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1ar: Winners Win

(--) Extend our Parmes evidenceObama has no political capital now and needs to exploit small wins in order to bounce backprefer our evidence its specific to Obama and his need to get back in the game now. (--) Winners win: Picking fights with Republicans is only way for Obama to get his agenda passed: John Dickerson, 1/18/2013 (staff writer, Go for the Throat!
http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/politics/2013/01/barack_obama_s_seco nd_inaugural_address_the_president_should_declare_war.single.html, Accessed 4/24/2013, rwg)
The challenge for President Obamas speech is the challenge of his second term: how to be great when the environment stinks. Enhancing the presidents legacy requires something more than simply the clever application of predictable stratagems. Washingtons partisa n rancor, the size of the problems facing government, and the limited amount of time before Obama is a lame duck all point to a single conclusion: The
president who came into office speaking in lofty terms about bipartisanship and cooperation can only cement his legacy if he destroys the GOP. If he wants to transform American politics, he must go for the throat.
President Obama could, of course, resign himself to tending to the achievements of his first term. He'd make sure health care reform is implemented, nurse the economy back to health, and put the military on a new footing after two wars. But he's more ambitious than that. He ran for president as a one-term senator with no executive experience. In his first term, he pushed for the biggest overhaul of health care possible because, as he told his aides, he wanted to make history. He may already have made it. There's no question that he is already a president of consequence. But there's no sign he's content to ride out the second half of the game in the Barcalounger. He is approaching gun control, climate change, and immigration with wide and excited eyes. He's not going for caretaker. How should the president proceed then, if he wants to be bold? The Barack Obama of the first administration might have approached the task by finding some Republicans to deal with and then start agreeing to some of their demands in hope that he would win some of their votes. It's the traditional approach. Perhaps he could add a good deal more schmoozing with lawmakers, too. That's the old way. He has abandoned that. He doesn't think it will work and he doesn't have the time. As Obama explained in his last press conference, he thinks the Republicans are dead set on opposing him. They cannot be unchained by schmoozing. Even if Obama were wrong about Republican intransigence, other constraints will limit the chance for cooperation. Republican lawmakers worried about primary challenges in 2014 are not going to be willing partners. He probably has at most 18 months before people start dropping the lame-duck label in close proximity to his name. Obamas succeeds in passing legislation or not, given his ambitions, his
only remaining option is to pulverize. Whether he goal should be to delegitimize his opponents. Through a series of clarifying fights over controversial issues, he can force Republicans to either side with their coalition's most extreme elements or cause a rift in the party that will leave it , at least temporarily, in disarray. This theory of political transformation rests on the weaponization (and slight bastardization) of the work by Yale political scientist
Stephen Skowronek. Skowronek has written extensively about what distinguishes transformational presidents from caretaker presidents. In order for a president to be transformational, the old order has to fall as the orthodoxies that kept it in power exhaust themselves. Obama's gambit in 2009 was to build a new post-partisan consensus. That didn't work, but by
exploiting the weaknesses of todays Republican Party, Obama has an opportunity to hasten the demise of the old order by increasing the political cost of having the GOP coalition defined by Second Amendment absolutists, climate science deniers, supporters of self deportation and the pure no-tax wing.
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Immigration Reform AFF Answers

2ac Frontline (--) Wont pass Ideological differences Alonso, 3/6/2013 (Basallisa, reporter with Hispanic Link News Service, President
Obama and Congress are still far apart on immigration reform http://www.voxxi.com/obama-congress-apart-immigration-reform/#ixzz2MoXkkTAk sjg) WASHINGTON, D.C. President Barack Obama and Congress have yet to address seriously, let alone find much common ground, on major differences in shaping comprehensive immigration reform legislation this year. They remain ideologically and politically far apart on a myriad of issues , most prominently border enforcement, a path to citizenship and
family reunification. The latest move by the Administration is the probationary release of several hundred immigrants from detention centers over the country who are awaiting disposition of their deportation orders. White House press secretary Jay Carney says they are low-risk, non-criminal detainees being shifted to a less-expensive form of monitoring to ensure detention levels stay within ICEs overall budget. More than 400,000 immigrants are held
Goodlatte (R- Virginia) calls it abhorrent that President Obama is releasing criminals into our communities. He adds that achieving an overhaul of immigration laws would have better odds if Congress, rather than
annually in 250 federal immigration prisons. House Judiciary Committee chairman Robert the President, takes the lead. President Obamas leaked immigration bill The buoyancy from the presidents Feb. 12 State of the Union immigration reform message turned flat five days later, when USA Today obt ained a copy and revealed it. The leaked proposal included his intended roadmap to citizenship for nearly 11 million undocumented immigrants who meet stringent requirements in order to qualify. Although the White House has not confirmed the report, qualifying immigrants would be granted renewable lawful prospective immigrant visas. Much like the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrival (DACA) program, the plan would allow currently undocumented immigrants to live and work here temporarily within a four-year timeframe. After that, the visa could be renewed. Immigrants would have to pass criminal background checks, submit biometrics and pay any back taxes and fees due. The current non-refundable fee is $685 to take the citizenship test is $685. Applicants would then have a minimum eight-year wait before they could apply for a green card, which grants permanent residency. Some persons already in deportation proceedings would be allowed to apply. The New York Times reported that none of the 11 million undocumented immigrants currently in the country would be granted permanent resident status or a green card before the earlier of two dates: either eight years after the bill is enacted or 30 days after visas have been awarded to everyone who applied legally before they did. During the State of the Union address the President entreated, Lets get this done. Send me a comprehensive immigration reform bill in the next few months, and I will sign it right away.
The bipartisan exuberance that filled the House
chamber has visibly retracted . Senator John McCain (R-Ariz.) told NBCs Meet the Press that if the president proposes the leaked plan as legislation it would fail. Leaks dont happen in
Washington by accident, he added. U.S. Rep. Paul Ryan (R-Wisc.,) who had earlier praised Obamas State of the Union immigration rhetoric, said on ABCs This Week that by leaking his proposal the president was looking for a partisan advantage and not a bipartisan solution. Meanwhile, U.S. Rep. Luis Gutierrez (D-Ill.) cautioned that when Washington perceives people as complacent, Someone will come and steal our victory right before ou r very eyesNothing happens in Washington, D.C., without a consistent and persistent demand from outside.
(--) Obamas political capital not key to immigration reform: Hirsh, 2/16/2013 Feb. 16, 2013 (chief correspondent , political analyst) NATIONAL JOURNAL
news.yahoo.com/no-thing-political-capital-201002390-politics.html;_ylt=A2KJ3CRyFSBRwTEAoV3QtDMD Meanwhile, the Republican members of the Senates so-called Gang of Eight are pushing hard for a
new spirit of compromise on immigration reform, a sharp change after an election year in which the GOP standard-bearer declared he would make life so miserable for the 11 million illegal immigrants in the U.S. that they would self -deport. But this turnaround has very little to do with Obamas personal influencehis political mandate, as it were. It has almost entirely to do with just two numbers: 71 and 27. Thats 71 percent for Obama, 27 percent for Mitt Romney, the breakdown of the Hispanic vote in the 2012 presidential election. Obama drove home his advantage by
giving a speech on immigration reform on Jan. 29 at a Hispanic-dominated high school in Nevada, a swing state he won by a surprising 8 percentage points in November. But the
movement on immigration has mainly come out of the Republican Partys recent introspection, and the realization by its more thoughtful members, such as Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida and Gov. Bobby Jindal of Louisiana, that without such a shift the party may be facing demographic death in a country where the 2010 census showed, for the first time, that white births have fallen into the minority. Its got nothing to do with Obamas political capital or, indeed, Obama at all.
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(--) No internal link: Obama isnt reaching out to Republicans: Epstein, 2/18/2013 (staff) Feb. 18, 2013 POLITICO GOP Senators waiting for President Obamas outreach
dyn.politico.com/printstory.cfm?uuid=D5ED0B82-675F-436A-8F3E-A1610410E635
key aides on the Hill and at the White House acknowledge that even GOP senators who fit Obamas vision of bipartisanship Sens. Mark Kirk of Illinois, Rob Portman of Ohio, Lamar Alexander of Tennessee and Tom Coburn of Oklahoma are all waiting to hear anything from the president. Obama has to have legislative partners involved from the outset to give other
But after months of buildup and a week since his State of the Union address , Senate Republicans, and eventually their colleagues in the House, cover on passing immigration reform, gun control legislation and fiscal reforms to avoid the sequester. The same goes for getting the new universal preschool programs he promised last week, or even his longer-shot bid to get Congress to take action on climate change proposals. But the GOP senators who seem most promising to fill this role have their own political prospects at home to worry about and 2014 reelection bids that theyre hoping wont go the way of Charlie Crist, whose own 2010 Senate bid was sunk in large part due to one hug he shared with the president. Still, theyd like to have a conversation. Or at least get a phone call. And with the
presidents whole agenda on the line, theyre surprised that hasnt happened yet. I view this as a time to
turn the page and take a fresh approach from both the White House and the congressional perspective and try to work together on these difficult political issues that have to be addressed, said Portman, whos seen as a potential partner on fiscal issues and is still waiting to hear from Obama. Doing it at the level of our leadership and the president hasnt worked.
(--) Immigration reform wont passObama wants it as a political issue:

Meghashyam Mali, 2/21/2013 (staff writer, Sen. Cruz: Obama trying to scuttle immigration reform, http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/284143-sen-cruzobama-trying-to-scuttle-immigration-reform, Accessed 2/21/2013, rwg)
Texas Sen. Ted Cruz (R) on Wednesday charged that President
Obama was seeking to scuttle
efforts at immigration reform by pushing for a pathway to citizenship for illegal

immigrants already in the country. Im
not optimistic about common sense immigration reform passing this Congress, said Cruz in a speech in Dallas, first reported by the Dallas Morning News. I dont believe President Obama wants an immigration bill to pass, instead I think he wants a political issue. His objective is to push so much on the table that he forces Republicans walk away from the table because then he wants to use that issue in 2014 and 2016 as a divisive wedge issue.
(--) Wont passintra-party disputes: David Brodwin, 2/21/2013 (cofounder and board member of American Sustainable
Business Council, The Split Politics of Immigration ReformAnd What To Do About It, http://www.usnews.com/opinion/blogs/economic-intelligence/2013/02/21/the-splitpolitics-of-immigration-reform-and-what-to-do-about-it, Accessed 2/21/2013, rwg)
Immigration is caught up in congressional gridlockbut it's a gridlock of a unique kind. Unlike so many important issues, the real fight on immigration is not between Republicans and Democratsit's within each political party. Only when we understand this conflict can we identify a solution. Within the Republican Party, the Tea Party base of mostly working class and middle class whites opposes immigration out of fear of competition for jobs driving down wages. And
let's be honestin some cases racism plays a role. But other parts of the Republican Party strongly support a relaxed immigration policy: employers in agriculture and other industries that depend on cheap immigrant labor; and Republican political strategists who rightly fear the rapid growth in Latino voters, who tend to vote for Democrats. The Republican Party is a house divided.
The Democratic Party is also divided.
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labor unions, an essential source of money and organizing capacity vital to Democrats, have long opposed a guest worker program. The guest worker program is a central partperhaps an inescapable partof comprehensive immigration reform proposals. Given the conflicts within the parties, it's not surprising that little progress has been made to date . Both parties
Many (but not all) Latino groups favor looser immigration laws. But
have a vested interest in appearing to support comprehensive reform without ever reaching agreement.
(--) Leak of the White House immigration plan undermines hopes for immigration reform: Jake Miller, 2/17/2013 (staff writer, GOP: Leaked WH immigration plan
Rep. Paul Ryan, R-Wisc., called
the leaked proposal "counterproductive" on ABC's "This Week" and questioned the president's motives, accusing him of seeking a partisan advantage instead of finding a solution. "Leaking this out does set things in the wrong direction ," he said. "By putting these details out
without a guest worker program, without addressing future flow, by giving advantage to those who cut in front of the line...that tells us he's looking for a partisan advantage and not a bipartisan solution." "There
are groups in the House and Senate working together to get this done," he said, "and when he does things like this, it makes it much more difficult to do that. And that's why I think this particular move - very counterproductive."
Obama will pass immigration reform by executive order if Congress doesnt act: Mike Lillis, 2/16/2013 (staff writer, Dems: Obama can act unilaterally on immigration
can and will take steps on immigration reform in the event Congress doesn't reach a comprehensive deal this year, according to several House Democratic leaders. While the Democrats are hoping Congress will preclude any executive action by enacting reforms legislatively, they say the administration has the tools to
President Obama
move unilaterally if the bipartisan talks on Capitol Hill break down. Furthermore, they say, Obama stands poised to use them . "I don't think the president will be hands off on immigration for any moment in time," Rep. Xavier Becerra (D-Calif.), the head of the House Democratic Caucus, told reporters this week. "He's ready to move forward if we're not."
(--) Winners win: Michael Hirsh, 2/7/2013 (staff writer, Theres No Such Thing as Political Capital,
http://www.nationaljournal.com/magazine/there-s-no-such-thing-as-political-capital20130207, Accessed 2/22/2013, rwg)
Amid todays atmosphere of Republican self-doubt, a
new, more mature Obama seems to be emerging, one who has his he can get some early winsas he already has, apparently, on the fiscal cliff and the upper-income tax increasethat will create momentum, and one win may well lead to others. Winning wins. Obama himself learned some hard lessons over the past four years about the falsity of the
agenda clearly in mind and will ride the mood of the country more adroitly. If political-capital concept. Despite his decisive victory over John McCain in 2008, he fumbled the selling of his $787 billion stimulus plan by portraying himself naively as a post-partisan president who somehow had been given the electoral mandate to be all things to all people. So Obama tried to sell his stimulus as a long-term restructuring plan that would lay the groundwork for long-term economic growth. The president thus fed GOP suspicions that he was just another big-government liberal. Had he understood better that the country was digging in against yet more government intervention and had sold the stimulus as what it mainly was a giant shot of adrenalin to an economy with a stopped heart, a
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pure emergency measurehe might well have escaped the worst of the backlash. But by laying on ambitious programs, and following up quickly with his health care plan, he only sealed his reputation on the right as a closet socialist.
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(--) Economy thumps the link: AP 1/31/2013 (JIM KUHNHENN, Economic jitters compete with Obama agenda,
http://news.yahoo.com/economic-jitters-compete-obama-agenda-081854479-finance.html, CMR)
WASHINGTON (AP) Just
as President Barack Obama is pushing new initiatives on gun control and immigration, the gloomy old problem of a sluggish economy is elbowing its way back into prominence . Consumer
confidence is falling, the economy is contracting and large automatic spending cuts are threatening to hit the Pentagon and other programs, with uncertain consequences. These
troubles arise as Obama's public approval is improving and as he begins to use his sway to promote the key features of his second-term agenda. The White House, the Federal Reserve and independent
economists attributed the shrinkage in gross domestic product and the drop in consumer confidence to one-time events and said underlying economic factors were still showing encouraging signs. But in politics, power resides in the moment. Any
immediate economic setback or the perception of one could weaken Obama's clout or at least distract him as he carefully tries to put his imprint on initiatives dealing with immigration and gun violence. At the White
House, there was no evidence of a course alteration. And White House officials expressed confidence in consumption and investment trends that showed evidence of strength. But the Commerce Department announcement Wednesday that the economy shrank at an annual rate of 0.1 percent came a day after the Conference Board reported a sharp decline in consumer confidence in January. That drop, together with one in December, erased consumer confidence that had built up in 2012. What's more, the new data comes just two days before the government releases the January unemployment report, which economists believe will stay at the still-high rate of 7.8 percent, where it has held for two months. "What's most critical to consumer confidence is employment," said Lynn Franco, director of economic indicators at the Conference Board. "We've had spurts where we've had strong job growth and we've seen a rebound in confidence, and then suddenly you have a pullback in employment and you get a pullback in confidence. So we need a convincing story, and that's going to take several months of jobs growth." Analysts said the economy is still on track to grow steadily if modestly at a roughly 2 percent pace, as long as the housing and auto industries continue to recover. The Commerce Department attributed the economic contraction mainly to companies restocking at a slower rate and to reductions in government spending on defense. While companies will ultimately have to rebuild their inventories, the cuts in defense spending could offer a hint of things to come. The administration argued that the 22 percent reduction in defense spending was partly in anticipation of automatic spending cuts that were going to take effect at the beginning of the year. Obama and congressional Republicans averted that so-called fiscal cliff by extending Bushera tax rates to all but the wealthiest Americans. But the deal simply delayed the automatic cuts until March 1. At that point, the Pentagon faces across-the-board cuts of 7 percent, while domestic programs will have to shrink by 5 percent. Some analysts believe that if those cuts are allowed to occur, as some Republicans are now suggesting, the economy could lose a half a percentage point of growth. "If the economy would continue to slow down, the interesting question is how does that affect negotiations in and around sequester, government spending, tax reform, the debt ceiling," said John Sides, a political scientist at George Washington University who studies the impact of economic data on politics. "To me it's
not so much that an economic slowdown is going to hurt the president's ability to get things done, it's how it's going to affect the negotiations that we already know are going to happen ." Some in the
business community hope the experience in the last quarter will alert lawmakers to the potential economic damage the automatic cuts could create. "I don't think any time you see a reduction in economic growth that it's good news," White House press secretary Jay Carney conceded Wednesday. But he cautioned, "We need to make sure that in Washington we are not taking actions that undercut that progress that we have been making and can continue to make and will continue to make." Carney said letting the automatic cuts take effect is a "sort of political brinksmanship of the kind that results in one primary victim, and that's American taxpayers, the American middle class." Still, the White House insists the only alternative to those cuts is a mix of savings and new tax revenue. Republicans say the $600 billion in revenue they already gave Obama as part of the New Year's fiscal cliff deal is enough. They insist that if he wants different spending cuts than those due to start on March 1, he should submit a new plan. But the White House has been eager to move away from fiscal and budget fights, ready to use the president's reelection and the uptick in his popularity to push his noneconomic agenda. On Tuesday, he traveled to Las Vegas to push for an overhaul in immigration. On Monday, he is traveling to Minneapolis to promote his proposals to reduce gun violence. The issues are not simple ones for Obama. The economy and the nation's debt still rank higher than immigration and guns as issues in the mind of the public. Moreover, Obama has to navigate gingerly with Congress on immigration, where a fragile coalition of Democrats and Republicans is assembling legislation that, among other things, could provide a path to citizenship for 11 million illegal immigrants in the U.S. Obama has vowed to use his bully pulpit to build public support for his new agenda. Defending
his economic stewardship was not supposed to be
part of the playbook.
(--) Wont pass GOP opposition and gun control and budget fights thump Reuters 2/5 (House Republicans try to chip away at immigration reform,
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/02/06/us-usa-immigration-idUSBRE9130V620130206, CMR)
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(Reuters) - The first major immigration reform effort since 1986 came
under attack on Tuesday from congressional
Republicans who cast doubt on a proposal backed by President Barack Obama to give 11 million illegal immigrants a chance to become citizens. An immigration overhaul suddenly looked possible last week when a group of senators from both parties launched a reform campaign. But it has not taken long for partisan rancor to emerge. Republicans in the House of Representatives are questioning a core element of the immigration plan: a path to citizenship for undocumented residents, most
of them Hispanic, who are already in the United States. Bob Goodlatte, Republican chairman of the Judiciary Committee, raised the possibility of a "middle ground" between the current U.S. policy of deporting illegals and of placing them on a path to citizenship, as Obama demands. "Are there options to consider between the extremes of mass deportation and pathway to citizenship?" the Virginia lawmaker asked during a session on immigration reform. Any challenge
to the Democrats' goal of providing a route to citizenship might derail reform at a
time when other divisive issues like gun control and deficit reduction share the legislative agenda.
(--) FIAT solves the link: Congress wont backlash against itself. (--) Gun control thumps the link: Mark R. Kennedy, 1/15/2013 (Professor of political management @ George
Lack of focus: In
order to really drive the direction of a major reform effort, a president must prioritize and avoid cluttering the playing field with numerous other initiatives at the same time. In his first
inaugural address President Obama laid out a broad agenda but failed to achieve results until he narrowed his focus to health-care reform.
Clearly energy, immigration and tax reform legislation are all desperately needed, but all cannot be done at once. Adding gun reform to the mix, regardless of its merits, will decrease the likelihood of action on other priorities and will elevate the level of partisan rancor.
(--) Obama isnt using political capital anymorehes going around Republicans: Sam Stein, 1/21/2013 (staff writer, Obama's Post-Partisan Promise Mellows Amid
But gridlock has a way of grinding down even the most idealistic soul. During
Obama's first term, Republicans rebuffed the president time and again. Eventually, the president's aides concluded that more could be done working around or against Congress , rather than with it. The seeds of that approach -- which involve barnstorming outside the Beltway, urging voters to pressure elected officials, and taking harder lines for negotiations - were planted during the payroll tax cut fight in early 2012 and bloomed during the fiscal cliff standoff at year's end. With high-stakes budget fights over the debt ceiling, government funding, and sequestration coming in the first few months of 2013, the more combative Obama will be front and center once more. "The president took the case directly to the American people and involved them more fully in the discussion," Axelrod said of the payroll tax cut and fiscal cliff fights. "I do think that was a significant change and one that is still very
much available to the president. Not just available to him. I think he is convinced that is essential going forward."
(--) Past failures to pass immigration reform deny the impact. (--) Forcing controversial fights key to Obamas agendathe alt is gridlock John Dickerson, Slate, 1/18/13, Go for the Throat!,
www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/politics/2013/01/barack_obama_s_second_ina ugural_address_the_president_should_declare_war.single.html, CMR
On Monday, President Obama will preside over the grand reopening of his administration. It would be altogether fitting if he stepped to the microphone, looked down the mall, and let out a sigh: so many people expecting so much from a government that appears capable of so little. A
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second inaugural suggests new beginnings, but this one is being bookended by dead-end debates. Gridlock over the fiscal cliff preceded it and gridlock over the debt limit, sequester, and budget will follow. After the election, the
same people are in power in all the branches of government and they don't get along. There's no indication that the president's clashes with House Republicans will end soon. Inaugural speeches are supposed to be huge and stirring. Presidents haul our heroes onstage, from
George Washington to Martin Luther King Jr. George W. Bush brought the Liberty Bell. They use history to make greatness and achievements seem like something you can just take down from the shelf. Americans are not stuck in the rut of the day. But this might be too much for Obamas second inaugural address: After the last four years, how do you call the nation and its elected representatives to co mmon action while standing on the steps of a building where collective action goes to die? That bipartisan ba g of tricks has been tried and it didnt work. People dont believe it. Congress' approval rating is 14 percent, the lowest in history. In a December Gallup poll, 77 percent of th ose asked said the way
challenge for President Obamas speech is the challenge of his second term: how to be great when the environment stinks. Enhancing the presidents legacy requires something more than simply the clever application of predictable stratagems . Washingtons partisan rancor, the size of the problems facing government, and the limited amount of time before Obama is a lame duck all point to a single conclusion: The president who came into office speaking in lofty terms about bipartisanship and cooperation can only cement his legacy if he destroys the GOP . If he wants to transform American politics, he must
Washington works is doing serious harm to the country. The
go for the throat . President Obama could, of course, resign himself to tending to the achievements of his first term. He'd make sure
health care reform is implemented, nurse the economy back to health, and put the military on a new footing after two wars. But he's more ambitious than that. He ran for president as a one-term senator with no executive experience. In his first term, he pushed for the biggest overhaul of health care possible because, as he told his aides, he wanted to make history. He may already have made it. There's no question that he is already a president of consequence. But there's no sign he's content to ride out the second half of the game in the Barcalounger. He is approaching gun control, climate change, and immigration with wide and excited eyes. He's not going for caretaker. How should the president proceed then, if he wants to be bold? The Barack Obama of the first administration might
have approached the task by finding some Republicans to deal with and then start agreeing to some of their demands in hope that he would win some of their votes. It's the traditional approach. Perhaps he could add a good deal more schmoozing with lawmakers, too. That's the old way. He has abandoned that. He doesn't think it will work and he doesn't have the time. As Obama explained in his last Republicans are dead set on opposing him . They cannot be unchained by schmoozing. Even if Obama were wrong about Republican intransigence, other constraints will limit the chance for cooperation. Republican lawmakers worried about primary challenges in 2014 are not going to be willing partners. He probably has at most 18 months before people start dropping the lame-duck label in close proximity to his name. Obamas only remaining option is to pulverize. Whether he succeeds in passing legislation or not, given his ambitions, his goal should be to delegitimize his opponents. Through a series of clarifying fights over
press conference, he thinks the
controversial issues , he can force Republicans to either side with their coalition's most extreme elements or cause a rift in the party that will leave it, at least temporarily, in disarray .
(--) Uniqueness is empirically denied, all the previous efforts by Bush and Obama to pass immigration reform prove it wont happen this time. (--) Continued fiscal cliff battle thumps the linksucks the oxygen out of the room for other legislation: Mark R. Kennedy, 1/15/2013 (Professor of political management @ George
Continuing fiscal cliff battles : One consequence of not reaching a grand bargain on the fiscal cliff is that it ensures that further contests over how to resolve the nation's ongoing deficits will suck much of the oxygen out of the most opportune time slot for legislative action: the period immediately following the president's inaugural address and the State of the Union address.
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(--) Immigration reform wont come till a vote till August: Chris Johnson, 1/23/2013 (staff writer, Will Obama include gay couples in
immigration reform? http://www.washingtonblade.com/2013/01/23/will-obama-includegay-couples-in-immigration-reform/, Accessed 1/23/2013, rwg)
But while signs indicate that Obama will ask Congress to pass a UAFA-inclusive immigration reform bill, questions linger over whether the Senate will come to an agreement to pass an immigration package that would protect LGBT families. Concurrent
with the plan the White House is developing, a bipartisan group of senators has engaged in talks to craft a comprehensive bill that, according to the Times, could be introduced as early as March with the plan to hold a floor vote before August. Legislation is expected to start in the Democratic-controlled Senate before moving over the Republican-controlled House for final passage.
Obama not pushinghes allowing Congress to work it out on their own: JORDAN FABIAN, 1/30/2013 (staff writer, Obama Confident Immigration Reform
Passes This Year, http://abcnews.go.com/ABC_Univision/Politics/president-obamaconfident-immigration-reform-passes-year/story?id=18358660, Accessed 1/30/2013, rwg)
Although the president threatened to introduce his own bill if negotiations in Congress stall during his speech in Las Vegas, Nevada, on Tuesday, he said he is content to let lawmakers hash out the details among themselves for the time being . "If they are on a path as they have already said, where they want to get a bill done by March, then I think that's a reasonable timeline and I think we can get that done. I'm not going to lay down a particular date because I want to give them a little room to debate," he said. "If it slips a week, that's one thing. If it starts slipping three months, that's a
problem."
(--) Obama wont push immigration reform, hell delegate it to Congress: Mark R. Kennedy, 1/15/2013 (Professor of political management @ George
Centrality to Republican brand boosting: The
need to address immigration reform for its own sake and to rebuild the Republican brand is well understood. As such, Republicans should be (and likely are) more motivated to actually pass, not just debate, an immigration bill than President Obama and congressional Democrats. There is
little doubt that Democrats are willing to go further with immigration reform than Republicans are and may be content to force the point to preserve a political point. Astute
Republicans would be wise to take great care to ensure that they tee up the legislative debate and the resulting legislation in a manner that Republicans can support , if not lead on . Given President Obama's demonstrated preference (from the stimulus bill on) for giving significant rein to Congress on major legislation and the pending necessity to do so as lame duck status approaches, one should expect any immigration bill that is enacted to be a congressionally crafted compromise bill .
(--) Gun control is top of the agenda: Cheyenne Hopkins, 1/20/2013 (staff writer, Plouffe Predicts Passage of Gun Control,
Immigration Measures, http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-01-20/plouffe-predictspassage-of-gun-control-immigration-measures.html, Accessed 1/20/2013, rwg)
The Dec. 14 shooting in a Connecticut grade school thrust gun control to the top of Obamas second-term agenda. This past week, he unveiled the most ambitious gun-control proposals in decades, announcing a $500 million package of legislation and executive actions aimed at curbing firearms violence.
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(--) Gridlock will prevail in second term: Sam Stein, 1/21/2013 (staff writer, Obama's Post-Partisan Promise Mellows Amid
First Term Gridlock, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/01/21/obama-post-partisanpromise_n_2490700.html?utm_hp_ref=the-road-forward, Accessed 1/23/2013, rwg) WASHINGTON -- As President Barack Obama enters his second term, his aides have concluded
he likely will fall short on one of his signature promises. Barring some collectively cathartic Beltway experience, the Obama administration will not usher in an era of post-partisanship. The forces of gridlock continue to have the upper hand, and they will have a tangible impact on the
president's tactics and ambitions.
(--) Obama has about a month of political capitalformula is for gridlock: Nancy Benac, 1/24/2013 (staff writer, Obama's uphill agenda,
http://www.detroitnews.com/article/20130124/OPINION01/301240324/1008/opinion01/ Obama-s-uphill-agenda, Accessed 1/24/2013, rwg)
Obama's goal is to get through that trifecta and still have the political capital left for the things he'd rather focus on: Reducing gun violence, overhauling immigration policy, revamping tax laws, addressing climate change and more. With Republicans in Congress approaching the new year with very different goals, "it's a formula for deadlock and difficulty for the president," says James Thurber, director of the Center for Congressional and Presidential Studies at American University. "I don't think this president has even a month of political capital."
(--) Fiscal issues will drain Obamas political capital: Niall Stanage & Amie Parnes 1/18/13 (staff writer, At halftime of his presidency,
Obama looks to lessons of first four years, http://thehill.com/homenews/administration/277921-at-halftime-obama-looks-to-lessonsof-first-term, Accessed 1/24/2013, rwg)
But there
is also the danger that the nations fiscal issues will not be resolved in any meaningful way. procession of congressional crises and unsatisfying stopgap measures might be the result. It makes him spend a lot of his political energy and a lot of his political capital and thats why it has been the strategy of the Republicans, Princeton history and public affairs Professor Julian Zelizer said.
If that occurs, a
(--) Hagel nomination draining capital now: Susan Crabtree, 1/8/2013 (staff writer, Little enthusiasm on Capitol Hill for Hagel
nomination, http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2013/jan/8/little-enthusiasm-oncapitol-hill-for-hagel-nomina/#ixzz2HUcSjUfS, Accessed 1/23/2013, rwg)
After making it past one fiscal cliff with more to come, its
an odd time for President Obama to be picking a fight with Congress over his choice to run the Pentagon. In many ways, Mr. Obamas choice, former Sen. Chuck Hagel, a Republican from Nebraska and a Vietnam veteran with two Purple Hearts, is a man without a party who has plenty of detractors on both sides of the aisle. Even before it became official Monday, Mr. Hagels nomination had kicked up a cloud of consternation from those on the right who questioned his commitment to Israel and his willingness to get tough with sanctions on Iran over its nuclear program.
Those on the left arent overjoyed, either. They would rather have worked with one of their own at the Pentagon, and have que stions about criticism in 1998 of a Clinton administration nominee for an ambassadorship for being openly, aggressively gay. Mr. Hagel has since apologized, and Democrats appear to be giving him a pass at least for now. But Mr. Obama
chose his former Senate colleague anyway, putting the full weight of the presidency behind his selection and risking the political capital it takes to win confirmation battles in the worlds most exclusive club.
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AFF Answers: LA Relations

(--) Drug policy and Cuba policy prevent effective US-Latin American relations: Shifter 12 (Michael is the President of Inter-American Dialogue. Remaking the
Another chronic irritant is US drug policy, which most Latin Americans now believe makes their drug and crime problems worse . Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while visiting Mexico,
acknowledged that US anti-drug programs have not worked. Yet, despite growing calls and pressure from the region, the United States has shown little interest in exploring alternative approaches. Similarly, Washingtons more than half-century embargo on Cuba, as well as other elements of United States Cuba policy, is strongly opposed by all other countries in the
hemisphere. Indeed, the US position on these troublesome issuesimmigration, drug policy, and Cubahas set Washington against the consensus view of the hemispheres other 34 governments.
(--) Fixing US domestic policies inadequate to create cooperation with Latin America: Shifter 12 (Michael is the President of Inter-American Dialogue. Remaking the
Simply addressing an unfinished agenda is not enough . Both the United States and Latin America need to do more to exploit the enormous untapped opportunities of their relationship in economics, trade, and energy. They need to work together to deal with global and regional problems. And
they need to project common values, including peace, democracy, human rights, expansion of equal opportunity, and social mobility. They need to breathe new life and vigor into hemispheric
relations.
(--) Cuba policy prevents effective US-Latin American relations: Shifter 12 (Michael is the President of Inter-American Dialogue. Remaking the
Policy towards Cuba has long divided the United States from the rest of the hemisphere. There is a consensus among the other nations of the hemisphere that Washingtons 50-year-old embargo has not worked and, in fact, may have been counterproductive, prolonging Cubas repressive rule
rather than ending it. Greater engagement with Cuba and more openness to easing US restrictions on the island are essential. At the same time, as outlined below, Cubas failure to pursue political reform and adopt more democratic measures also needs to be addressed.
(--) Multiple issues block strong US-Mexican relations: Shifter 12 (Michael is the President of Inter-American Dialogue. Remaking the
Relationship: The United States and Latin America, April, IAD Policy Report, 169
Politics DA/Answers SUDI 2013 http://www.thedialogue.org/PublicationFiles/IAD2012PolicyReportFINAL.pdf, Accessed 1/23/2013, rwg)

Because of their geographic proximity and interwoven economies, the United States and Mexico have cooperated extensively on many issues. But relations are clouded as these two neighbors remain at loggerheads over aspects of immigration, drug policy, and the flow of illegal arms and moneyeven as they work together on these and other issues.
(--) Cuba obstructs effective US-Latin American engagement: Shifter 12 (Michael is the President of Inter-American Dialogue. Remaking the
Although unlikely to be accomplished in the near future, the long-term goal of the United States and other hemispheric governments should be agreement on collective actions to hold nations to the standards of the charter. The United States and Canada cannot be effective if they are the only voices calling for action to defend democracy and enforce the charter. The United States should pursue a longer-term strategy of consulting and finding common ground with Latin American and Caribbean governments on the appropriate use of the charter, which should play an important role in hemispheric affairs. Cuba, too, poses
a significant challenge for relations between the United States and Latin America. The 50-year-old US embargo against Cuba is rightly criticized throughout the hemisphere as a failed and
punitive instrument. It has long been a strain on US-Latin American relations. Although the United States has recently moved in the right direction and taken steps to relax restrictions on travel to Cuba, Washington
needs to do far more to dismantle its severe, outdated constraints on normalized relations with Cuba. Cuba is one of the residual issues that most obstructs more effective US-Latin American engagement.
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AFF Answers: Focus Link

(--) No focus nowObamas focus is divided in the squo Collinson, 2/13/2013 (White House Correspondent) Feb. 13, 2013 AGENCE
FRANCE PRESSE Obama wagers second term capital on reform za.news.yahoo.com/obama-wagers-second-term-capital-reform-025819681.html
US President Barack Obama
staked his second term political capital on a full-bore drive to cut gun crime, reform the immigration system and to ignite economic growth and job creation. In his annual State of
the Union address, Obama referred only in passing to tense nuclear showdowns with North Korea and Iran, but in keeping with an inward looking address, pledged to bring half of US troops in Afghanistan home in a year. Grasping for a note of optimism in still grim economic times, Obama recalled how in his first term, America had rebounded from the worst economic crisis in generations, before delivering a speech packed with policy initiatives. "Together, we have cleared away the rubble of crisis, and can say with renewed confidence that the state of our union is stronger," Obama said, in a speech punctuated by raucous cheers in the House of Representatives. The
address was Obama's best chance to speak directly to Americans to build support for his plans after his November election win, as he seeks to stave off the domestic lame duck status that eventually
hits all second term presidents. Obama said America's key task was working to stabilize its budget, and said looming automatic spending cuts due to hit in March which could throw the economy into chaos and increase unemployment were "a really bad idea." "A growing economy that creates good, middle-class jobs -- that must be the North Star that guides our efforts," Obama said.
(--) Obama pushing three major issues nowthey cant win a focus link: Chris Weigant, 1/23/2013 (staff writer, Handicapping Obama's Second Term
Budget battles are going to happen no matter what else does -- that's another safe bet. What is more interesting, though, is handicapping which of Obama's agenda items will actually see some action. There
are three major initiatives that Obama is currently
pushing : action on global warming, comprehensive immigration reform, and gun control. Obama did
mention other issues in his speech, but these are the big three for now. Gay marriage, for instance, is in the hands of the Supreme Court right now, and no matter how they rule it's hard to see any legislative action (good or bad) happening on it immediately afterwards.
(--) White House focused on multiple priorities: J. Scott Applewhite, 1/22/2013 (staff writer, Dems, environmentalists hail Obamas
focus on climate, but warn about Keystone XL pipeline, http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/dems-environmentalists-hail-obama-focus-onclimate-but-warn-about-keystone-xl-pipeline/2013/01/22/fe212fda-646a-11e2-889bf23c246aa446_story.html, Accessed 1/24/2013, rwg)
called climate change an important issue and a priority for the president. But it is not a singular priority. It is one of a host of priorities he believes we can act on, Carney said.
White House spokesman Jay Carney
(--) Obama focusing on climate changethis will also cause a fight with Republicans: J. Scott Applewhite, 1/22/2013 (staff writer, Dems, environmentalists hail Obamas
focus on climate, but warn about Keystone XL pipeline, http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/dems-environmentalists-hail-obama-focus-onclimate-but-warn-about-keystone-xl-pipeline/2013/01/22/fe212fda-646a-11e2-889bf23c246aa446_story.html, Accessed 1/24/2013, rwg)
By singling out climate change, Obama indicated a willingness to take on an issue that he acknowledges was often overlooked during his first term. He also was setting up a likely
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confrontation with congressional Republicans who have opposed legislative efforts to curb global warming.
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Politics DA/Answers SUDI 2013

Immigration Reform Shell 5

Immigration Reform Shell 2.0 8

Links: Cuba Embargo 84 Links: Mexico 88 Links: Venezuela 90 Focus Links 91

Politics DA/Answers SUDI 2013

Politics DA/Answers SUDI 2013

Immigration Reform Shell

Politics DA/Answers SUDI 2013

Politics DA/Answers SUDI 2013

Politics DA/Answers SUDI 2013

Immigration Reform Shell 2.0

Politics DA/Answers SUDI 2013

E. A cyber-attack on the US guarantees nuclear war

United States is prepared to use

Politics DA/Answers SUDI 2013

Politics DA/Answers SUDI 2013

Politics DA/Answers SUDI 2013

Politics DA/Answers SUDI 2013

UQ: Immigration Reform Will Pass Now

residing in the United States.

Politics DA/Answers SUDI 2013

Immigration Opponents Are Keeping Quiet So that thing

Politics DA/Answers SUDI 2013

Obama on Wednesday confidently promised that Congress will pass a comprehensive

immigration reform bill,

like a standoff, as so many other issues have been, but something

burst of activity on Capitol Hill marks

Politics DA/Answers SUDI 2013

recent weeks, comprehensive immigration reform has been steadily

Politics DA/Answers SUDI 2013

Politics DA/Answers SUDI 2013

Politics DA/Answers SUDI 2013

Politics DA/Answers SUDI 2013

Politics DA/Answers SUDI 2013

at the top of the presidents

is expected to make immigration reform a priority in his State of the Union

Politics DA/Answers SUDI 2013

the extensive overlap between the "principles" laid out by a bipartisan

Politics DA/Answers SUDI 2013

Obama is pushing for this bill at a time of

Politics DA/Answers SUDI 2013

Politics DA/Answers SUDI 2013

Politics DA/Answers SUDI 2013

Politics DA/Answers SUDI 2013

told us he'll do whatever it takes to get a good,

Politics DA/Answers SUDI 2013 confident-immigration-reform-passes-year/story?id=18358660, Accessed 1/30/2013, rwg)

said that the progress made by a bipartisan group of

has staked out a second term agenda of overhauling

said Congress has the votes to pass Obamas agenda.

Politics DA/Answers SUDI 2013

Politics DA/Answers SUDI 2013

Politics DA/Answers SUDI 2013

momentum for passing a comprehensive immigration package has ramped

Politics DA/Answers SUDI 2013 clinton-legacy_n_2498934.html?utm_hp_ref=the-road-forward, Accessed 1/23/2013, rwg)

Politics DA/Answers SUDI 2013

UQ: Obama has capital now

in motion , and that precious little can

Politics DA/Answers SUDI 2013

UQ: Obama Pushing Immigration Reform Now

Politics DA/Answers SUDI 2013

Obama and lawmakers after a brutal election in

focus on immigration reform , and

Politics DA/Answers SUDI 2013

Politics DA/Answers SUDI 2013