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According to the Bureau of Agricultural Statistics, in its latest Rice and Corn Situation released last week, palay

(paddy rice) production for calendar year 2013 is forecast at 18.58 million MT, 3.0% higher than the 2012 output of 18.03 million MT. Harvest area may expand by 1.7%, or from 4.69 million hectares last year to 4.77 million hectares this year. Yield per hectare may improve by 1.3% from 3.84 MT to 3.90 MT. July-December 2013 Crop Production for July- December 2013 may reach 10.58 million MT, 4.4% higher than last years record of 10.14 million MT. Harvest area may increase by 2.7%, or from 2.65 million hectares in 2012 to 2.73 million hectares this year. Yield per hectare may improve from 3.82 MT to 3.88 MT or by 1.6%. The July-September 2013 production at 3.36 million MT was 6.5% below the 2012 level of 3.60 million MT. Harvest area contracted by 8.20%. From 947 thousand hectares in 2012, harvest area decreased to 870 thousand hectares this year. Yield per hectare improved from 3.80 MT to 3.87 MT or by 1.8%. Significant decreases in production and harvest area were noted in Cagayan Valley, Western Visayas, Bicol Region, ARMM, Davao Region and Ilocos Region. The October-December 2013 production forecast based on standing crop indicates 10.3% growth from last years level of 6.54 million MT to 7.22 million MT this year. Harvest area may expand to 1.86 million hectares, or 8.7% above last years record of 1.71 million hectares. Yield per hectare may improve by 1.5%, from 3.83 MT to 3.89 MT. The Department of Agriculture, through its attached agency, the National Food Administation (NFA), adopted a decision to import an additional 500,000 metric tons of rice, on top of its 385,000 metric tons Minimum Access Volume importation for the year, as a result of the effects of Supertyphoon Yolanda (Haiyan). With an estimated damage of over Php 10 billion in the agriculture sector, over 5,000 people dead, and 13 million people affected, the Philippine government opted to stay on the safe side in terms of buffer stocks for rice. Presently, the countrys buffer stock, which should be used in times of disasters or calamities, have reached critical levels. This is in part caused by interruptions in the production cycle as a result of various typhoons during the year, which affected major rice producing areas; and also in part by the governments on-going relief operations in typhoon-affected areas utilizing local rice. From the usual 90 days buffer stock, this has dwindled to about 50 days stock in government and commercial warehouses, and households. The 500,000 metric tons to be imported is seen to boost domestic buffer stock, while relief operations are on-going. Local production is calendared for harvest in December and this would help sustain domestic rice levels, but may not be enough if buffer stocks are to be considered. The National Rice Program foresees that the 500,000 volume may be purchased and delivered on a staggered basis, with about 300,000 coming into the country by December, with the remaining volume coming at a later date. The National Rice Program believes that the decision to import is still consistent with the government policy that the country will import rice only when necessary, and the goals of rice self-sufficiency are still valid and timely especially in light of the impacts of climate-change.

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