UPDATE
Alan Glezer, CFA - 55 11 2178 5466 alanglezer@bradescobbi.com.br Arthur Suelotto, CFA - 55 11 2178 6104 arthur.suelotto@bradescobbi.com.br
COMPANY REPORT
2013E 4.81 24,530 48,764 169,694 14.46% 6.85 4.71 0.99 7.95%
2014E 6.51 33,234 52,930 191,296 17.37% 5.06 4.34 0.88 6.85%
2015E 6.01 30,645 56,322 211,216 14.51% 5.49 4.07 0.80 6.32%
Key Figures Local price ADR Price range - 52 weeks (BRL) Shares outstanding (mn) 3-month ADTV (R$mn) Market cap (R$mn) EV (R$mn) 1 Net debt (R$mn) Net debt/EBITDA (LTM)
6-Dec-13 32.95 15.25 25.52-43.09 5,102.90 481.2 168,140 229,470 50,015 1.16
Bradesco Corretora Av. Paulista, 1.450 7 floor Sao Paulo Brazil 55 11 3556-3001
Bradesco S.A. Corretora de Ttulos e Valores Mobilirios (Bradesco Corretora) does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that Bradesco Corretora and its affiliates may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For full disclaimer and definitions, please refer to the end of this report.
80
May/11 Dec/13 Sep/10 Sep/12 Sep/13
Oct/13
Oct/10
Oct/12
Apr/10
Apr/12
Mar/10
Mar/12
Source: Bloomberg
Chinese steelmakers remain reluctant to accept higher iron ore prices for imported ore (above US$135/t), but it seems inevitable considering the limited domestic iron ore production during the winter season. The inventory of iron ore at Chinese ports is still rising and reached 87.4mn in the last week of November. Nevertheless, stocks are considerably below the 100mn tons seen in September 2012 before the collapse of iron ore prices when it traded below US$90/t.
Figure 2: Iron Ore Price - Volatility
40% 35%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
Jun/10 Jun/12 Jun/13 Jul/10 Jul/12 Jan/11 Aug/10 Jun/11 Aug/12 Jul/13 May/10 May/12 May/13 Aug/13 Aug/11 Sep/11 Jul/11 Nov/11 Dec/11 Jan/10 Jan/12 Feb/10 Feb/12 Jan/13 Apr/11 Sep/10 Sep/12 Feb/13 Mar/11 Sep/13 Nov/10 Dec/10 Nov/12 Dec/12 May/11 Nov/13 Feb/11 Oct/10 Apr/10 Apr/12 Oct/12 Mar/10 Mar/12 Mar/13 Apr/13 Oct/11
Source: Bloomberg
Iron ore price volatility continues to be on a downtrend as the addition of new low cash-cost supplies limit the room for price hikes, while cost inflation and deterioration of Chinese mines clearly creates a solid floor for prices. We believe that this is indeed a favorable scenario, and there is room for further price improvement ahead of the Chinese New Year in 2014. At the beginning of December, the Chinese government is expected to discuss urbanization plans that could include a new target of a 60% rate for 2020 (from the current 52%).
2
Mar/13
Apr/13
Oct/13
Oct/11
Iron Ore Price Forecast - adjusted by inflation (US$/ton, CIF China - lhs) Iron Ore Price Forecast - nominal (US$/ton, CIF China - lhs)
160
140
140 120 120 112 110 109 105 106 100 103 95
120
100
80
OLD
NEW
120 2013 110 2014 100 2015 95 2016 92 2017 90 2018 88 2019 88 2020 Source: Bloomberg
In light of the new developments, we are revisiting our iron ore price curve forecast. While we remain skeptical about the supply/demand balance in a scenario where there is a more accentuated deceleration in Chinese iron ore demand, we believe that this shock will not occur in the near future. Considering the strength of the Chinese daily steel output and the iron ore price dynamic in 2013, we are applying an upward shift in the iron ore price curve. For instance, we have updated our iron ore price for 2014 to US$120/t in this revision (from US$110/t).
Figure 5: Iron Ore Price in BRL/ton
350 330 310 290 270 250
Iron Ore Price Forecast - adjusted by inflation (R$/ton, CIF China - lhs)
230 210 190 170 2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
will be funded by operating cash flow, without requiring any additional debt. It is important to highlight that we had a provision of R$7.5bn in our model for this tax dispute settlement, and now adjusted it to reflect the current amount of R$14.4bn. Furthermore, we emphasize that Vale adequately prepared its balance sheet for this kind of settlement after selling VLI (35.9% for R$2.7bn) and its Norsk Hydro position (for R$4.2bn).
Figure 6: Tax Settlement Discount Details and Actual vs. Provisioned
50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Total After Discounts Principal, R$ 17.1 bn Penalties/Fees , R$ 15.9 bn Interest, R$ 4.5 bn Penalties/Fees , R$ 1.6 bn Principal, R$ 16.3 bn Interest, R$ 12.0 bn
16.00 14.00 12.00 R$ 6.9 bn 10.00 8.00 6.00 4.00 2.00 0.00 Settlement NPV Provision in the Model Increase in provision R$ 7.5 bn R$ 7.5 bn R$ 14.4 bn
Source: Company
R&D
20
Sustaining
Projects
0.9
Logistics 5%
1.7 15 4.6
4.5
0.9 4.5
Itabiritos 11%
0 2011
Source: Company
2012
2013E
2014E
2015E
2016E
The sustaining capex budget was reduced to US$4.5bn for 2014 from US$4.8bn in 2013, which represents 4.7% of the asset base, lower than the average ratio of 4.9% during the last three years. Sustaining capex basically provides funding for five classes of initiatives: operations, made up of mainly equipment replacements; building and expanding waste dumps and tailings dams; health & safety issues; corporate social responsibility (CSR); administration and others. There is the potential for a further reduction going forward, as the abovementioned total considers a non-recurring expense of US$107mn related to an ERP implementation project.
4
Waste
Health/Safety
CSR
Adm./Others
US$ 2,897mn 424 174 365 507 US$ 1,023mn 1,427 140 644 Ferrous Minerals Base Metals Fertilizers Coal US$ 399mn US$ 179mn
R&D expenses should remain broadly stable in 2014 compared to the expected final standing of 2013 of US$0.9bn. Nevertheless, a reduction in R&D can be observed since 2012, especially due to decreasing feasibility studies expenses, a downtrend that is a direct result of the companys increased focus on its key projects. The budget for 2014 is comprised of US$384mn to be used for mineral exploration, US$356mn for feasibility studies, and US$163mn to be invested in technological innovation and adaptation.
Figure 9: R&D Expenses Breakdown and Evolution
1800 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 210 731 548 140 2013* 356 163 2014E 592 426 384 Mineral Exploration Feasibility Studies Technological Innovation
200 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 5 105 205 305 405 505 605 705 805 905 Bradesco: Iron Ore Price Forecast 2020 Cost Curve: Iron Ore CFR - China 2013
Excess supply of 300 mn tons in 2020, putting pressure on prices 1005 1105 1205 1305 1405 1505
1,212 1,212
Demand growth has been healthy this year, and Chinese iron ore imports expanded 10% YoY when comparing the data up until October 2013. The demand adjustment related to the rebalancing of the Chinese economy - from investment-driven to consumption-driven growth - seems further away and we have therefore postponed the demand contraction to 2017-18 (from in 2016 previously). The delay in oversupply expectations is behind our upward adjustment of the iron ore price curve (+8% higher on average). Indeed, by incorporating the above-mentioned details, even if we accept that demand should increase by 100mtpy, this might be insufficient to absorb the supply expansion of more than 400mtpy (ex-depletion).
Figure 11: Iron Ore Demand Forecast
Demand (mn tons) China 804 844 886 904 859 773 792 Asia (Jpn, SK and Twn) Europe 300 120 306 121 312 122 318 124 325 125 331 126 338 127 Others TOTAL 53 1,277 55 1,327 58 1,379 61 1,407 64 1,372 67 1,297 70 1,328 Demand Growth YoY (% ) Asia China SK and Europe Others TOTAL 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 +5 % +5 % +2 % -5 % -10 % +2 % +2 % +2 % +2 % +2 % +2 % +2 % +1 % +1 % +1 % +1 % +1 % +1 % +5 % +5 % +5 % +5 % +5 % +5 % +4 % +4 % +2 % -2 % -5 % +2 %
Source: Reuters
Extra
Due to some of the aforementioned points, Congressman Leonardo Quinto, the projects sponsor in the Brazilian lower house, proposed a friendlier alternative code that was presented in November. In terms of the main differences, this second version excludes the implementation of the auction process, restoring the first-come preferentiality, and defines Royalties as a fixed ratio, instead of a variable one. The mining code was supposed to be voted upon by Congress on December 10, however, since the executive disagreed with the amended points, and an accord with the Deputies has not yet been reached, voting on the mining code has been delayed. With the elections coming in 2014, we believe it is likely that voting on the new mining code will only occur in 2015.
Federal Constitution 99.556/1990 Federal Decree 6.640/2008 Federal Decree Environmental Agency Instruction Environmental Agency Instruction
Natural caves are property of the Union Natural caves and areas of influence are national heritage site Criteria, restrictions and compesation for irreversible impacts on caves Cave classification criteria Compensation procedures for regular and high relevance caves
This classification process is usually a complicated one as it has to be extended for at least a one-year period (both dry and wet seasons have to be considered). Vale has over 200 caves yet to be classified. The process is usually simpler for new projects and S11D represents a successful example. Vale obtained the environmental permit for S11D that was already complying with existing cave legislation, and therefore not representing an unplanned risk for the project. A total of 137 caves were preserved.
4.50
Copper (US$/lb)
4.00
3.50
3.00
2.50
Source: Reuters
Source: Bloomberg
Although we have assumed a historical multiple of 6.0x, by looking at the current stock price we can see that it is trading at below the target multiple. It is worth adding that we have adjusted the provision for the tax dispute from the previous US$7.5bn, to the project net present value of US$14.4bn. Also, we incorporated the impact of the Norsk Hydro sale of R$4.2bn.
Figure 16: New vs. Old Estimates
Estimates New vs. Old Net Revenues COGS EBITDA EBITDA Margin CAPEX Old 106,486 51,142 50,446 47.37% 34,694 2013 New % 104,416 -1.9% 55,174 7.9% 48,764 -3.3% 46.70% -0.67 p.p. 32,458 -6.4% Old 108,476 56,144 48,195 44.43% 33,454 2014 New % 114,541 5.6% 60,428 7.6% 52,921 9.8% 46.20% 1.77 p.p. 34,235 2.3% Old 113,300 66,653 45,087 39.79% 34,043 2015 New % 127,652 12.7% 71,791 7.7% 57,609 27.8% 45.13% 5.34 p.p. 47,026 38.1% Old 130,983 77,957 52,246 39.89% 34,870 2016 New % 147,013 12.2% 89,952 15.4% 59,746 14.4% 40.64% 0.75 p.p. 43,364 24.4%
Our DCF-based valuation uses a WACC of 11.5% and long-term growth of 6%. We are assuming iron ore prices at US$100/t from 2017 onwards. We assume Iron ore and pellet capacities should increase to 446mtpy in 2018, and Moatize and Salobo rampups should enter primarily in 2015-2016.
Figure 17: Estimates for Sales Volumes
Sales Iron Ore (mn tons) Pellets (mn tons) Copper (k tons) Coal (mn tons) Nickel (k tons) Fertilizers (mn tons) 2013 265 40 356 8 250 9 2014 302 44 429 12 276 9 +37 +4 +74 +4 +26 +0 2015 312 44 543 19 304 9 +10 +0 +114 +7 +28 +0 2016 327 44 615 29 347 9 +15 +0 +72 +11 +43 +0 2017 342 44 635 33 360 9 +15 +0 +20 +4 +13 +0 2018 402 44 635 37 360 9 +60 +0 +0 +4 +0 +0 Total +137 +4 +279 +29 +110 +0
B al ance Sheet BRL million C ur r ent + lo ng t er m asset s Cash + short term invest ment Net receivables Invent ories Other Per manent asset s T o t al asset s C ur r ent + lo ng t er m l i ab il it ies Account s payable Dif erred LT debt Tot al debt ST + LT Taxes Other M i no r i t y I nt er est Shar eho l d er s' eq ui t y T o t al l iab i li t i es C ash f l o w BRL million EB IT Depreciation EB IT D A Changes in working capit al Income t ax Capex F r ee cash f l o w t o t he f ir m Key Ind i cat o r s EPS P/ E P/ BV P/ Free cash f low Free cash f low yield Net earnings - CAGR PEG EV/EBITDA EBITDA - CAGR EV/Sales Sales - CAGR EVG ROE (f inal)
2 0 12 6 1,6 0 2 12,999 13,885 10,320 24,398 2 0 5,3 2 1 2 6 6 ,9 2 3 110 ,9 6 3 9,255 0 61,856 664 39,188 3 ,2 4 5 152 ,3 8 8 2 6 6 ,59 6
2 0 13 56 , 9 2 7 15,770 15,730 13,807 11,621 2 2 2 ,8 6 5 2 79 ,79 2 10 7, 9 6 5 10,219 1,059 54,799 2,031 39,857 3 , 19 2 16 9 , 6 9 4 2 8 0 , 8 51
2 0 14 6 0 , 18 9 15,408 17,253 15,144 12,384 2 54 , 0 0 8 3 14 , 19 7 12 0 , 6 0 4 11,187 1,105 56,811 5,811 45,690 3 ,4 0 2 19 1, 2 9 6 3 15, 3 0 2
2 0 15 6 4 ,4 4 6 15,383 19,204 16,856 13,003 2 9 3 ,2 12 3 57,6 58 14 4 ,0 0 4 13,503 1,133 70,059 8,309 51,000 3 ,572 2 11,2 16 3 58 , 79 1
2 0 16 71,16 5 16,679 21,745 19,087 13,654 3 2 7, 4 3 7 3 9 8 ,6 0 2 16 4 ,6 6 7 16,313 1,162 81,203 10,215 55,775 3 , 751 2 3 1,3 4 6 3 9 9 , 76 4
2 0 17 9 5, 9 17 38,235 23,120 20,294 14,268 3 3 5, 59 2 4 3 1,50 9 176 ,3 2 7 17,472 1,191 85,594 10,323 61,747 3 , 9 19 2 52 , 4 54 4 3 2 ,70 1
2 0 18 12 5, 6 58 62,090 25,912 22,745 14,910 3 4 4 , 10 2 4 6 9 , 759 19 2 , 118 20,632 1,218 90,896 10,825 68,548 4 ,0 9 6 2 74 , 76 3 4 70 , 9 78
2 0 12 2.2 18.4 1.4 -21.4 -5% 7% 263.7 7.4 28% 3.0 22% 26.05 8%
2 0 13 4.8 8.6 1.2 22.7 4% -7% -128.9 5.4 7% 2.5 8% 78.51 14%
2 0 15 5.9 6.9 1.0 -120.9 -1% 39% 17.9 4.7 7% 2.1 13% 15%
2 0 18 6.7 6.2 0.8 6.6 15% n.a. n.a. 3.8 n.a. 1.5 n.a. 12%
Analyst Certification
Each analyst responsible for the preparation and content of this report hereby certifies, pursuant to SEC Regulation AC and applicable law s and regulations of other jurisdictions, that: (i) (ii) the view s expressed herein accurately and exclusively reflect his or her personal view s and opinions about the subject company(ies) and its or their securities; no part of his or her compensation w as, is, or w ill be paid directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendation or view s expressed by that analyst in this report; and pursuant to Brazilian securities exchange commission (Comisso de Valores Mobilirios CVM) Instruction 483/10: the recommendations indicated in this report solely and exclusively reflect his or her personal opinions, and w ere prepared independently and autonomously, including in relation to Bradesco Corretora and its affiliates ; his or her compensation is based on the profitability of Bradesco Corretora and its affiliates, w hich includes investment banking revenues;
(i) (ii)
Company disclosures pursuant to Brazilian securities exchange commission (Comisso de Valores Mobilirios CVM) Instruction 483/10: (i) Banco Bradesco S.A. beneficially ow ns 5% or more of equity securities issued by Cielo S.A.. Bradseg Participaes Ltda., a subsidiary of Banco Bradesco, indirectly ow ns 5% or more of equity securities issued by Fleury S.A.. BRADESPAR S.A., w hose controlling group is comprised of the same shareholders that control Banco Bradesco S.A., indirectly ow ns 5% or more of equity securities issued by VALE S.A. (ii) gora, Bradesco Corretora, Bradesco BBI and Bradesco Group companies have relevant financial and commercial interests in relation to the subject company(ies) or the subject security(ies). (iii) Bradesco BBI S.A. is acting as an underw riter in a public offering of equity securities of Unidas S.A. and Via Varejo S.A.. gora and Bradesco Corretora are participating in a public offering of equity securities of CVC Brasil Operadora e Agncia de Viagens S.A., of Certificates of Real Estate Receivables of Brazilian Securities Companhia de Securitizao. (iv) Bradesco BBI have managed or co-managed a public offering of equity and/or debt securities for the follow ing companies w ithin the past 12 months: Abril Educao, Aliansce, Banco BTG Pactual, Banco do Brasil, BB Progressivo II - FII, BB Seguridade, Biosev, BHG, BNDESPAR, BR Malls, Bradespar, Brasil Telecom, CART, CEDAE, Chemical VII, Chemical VIII, Colinas, Comgs, CPFL Energias Renovveis, Daycoval, EcoRodovias, Ecovias, Embratel, Equatorial, Estcio, FII BTG Pactual Corporate Office Fund, Fleury, Gafisa, Gvea Crdito Estruturado (FIDC), Iguatemi, JBS, Marfrig, MPX, Multiplan, OAS, OI, Petropar, Razen Energia, Restoque (Le Lis Blanc), Rodobens, Sabesp, Smiles, Vale and Vix Logstica. BBI also acted as a financial advisor for Alpargatas in the deal w ith Osklen. (v) gora and/or Bradesco Corretora participated in the public offering of equity and/or debt securities for the follow ing companies w ithin the past 12 months: Abril Educao, Aliansce, Alupar, Autoban, BNDESPAR, Banco BTG Pactual, BB Progressivo II - FII, BB Seguridade, Biosev, BHG, Comgs, CPFL Energias Renovveis, Equatorial, Estcio, Fator IFIX - FII, FII BTG Pactual Corporate Office Fund, FII - General Shopping Ativo e Renda, Fator Verit FII, Fibria, FII Brasil Plural Absoluto Fundo de Fundos, FII TB Office, FII TRX, Iguatemi, Iochpe Maxion, GAEC Educao, Linx, Marfrig, Minerva, Multiplan, Rio Bravo Crdito Imobilirio II - FII, Rodovias do Tiet, Santander Agncias FII, Senior Solution, SDI Logstica Rio - FII, Ser Educacional, Smiles, SP Dow ntow n - FII, Tringulo do Sol, Tupy and XP Corporate Maca - FII. (vi) Bradesco Corretora receives compensation for making a market in the equity securities of Alpargatas (ALPA4) and Odontoprev (ODPV3). Bradesco receives compensation for making a market in the in the fixed income securities of BNDESPAR and USIMINAS, and shares of Fundo Imobilirio BB Progressivo II.
4 5 X
Percentage of companies under coverage globally w ithin this rating category. As of 12/09/13 Bradesco Corretora had 117 companies under coverage globally. Percentage of companies w ithin this rating category for w hich [investment banking] services w ere provided w ithin the past 12 months.
10
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2) 3)
4)
5)
6) 7)
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11
Denis Blum
(Senio r Eco no mist)
55 1 121 78 4224
Tarik Migliorini Head of Equity Research Carlos Firetti, CFA 55 1 121 78 5363 Banking and Insurance Carlos Firetti, CFA Bruno Chemmer, CFA Rafael Frade, CFA Financial Services Rafael Frade, CFA Gabriel Gusan, CFA Carlos Firetti, CFA Healthcare Rafael Frade, CFA Raquel Erzinian
55 1 121 78 4230
Telecom , Media and Technology Luis Azevedo 55 1 121 78 5321 Tales Freire 55 1 121 78 4527 Education Luis Azevedo Tales Freire
carlo sfiretti@bradesco bbi.co m.br bruno .chemmer@bradesco bbi.co m.br rafaelf@bradesco bbi.co m.br
rafaelf@bradesco bbi.co m.br gabriel.gusan@bradesco bbi.co m.br carlo sfiretti@bradesco bbi.co m.br
Oil & Gas, Petrochem icals and Sugar & Ethanol Auro Rozenbaum 55 1 121 78 531 5 auro @bradesco bbi.co m.br Marcos Dong 55 1 121 78 5469 marco s.do ng@bradesco bbi.co m.br Bruno Arruda 55 1 121 78 531 0 bruno .arruda@bradesco bbi.co m.br Fixed Incom e Altair Pereira Caio Lombardi Andr Sonnervig
Steel, Mining, Pulp & Paper Alan Glezer, CFA 55 1 121 78 5466 Arthur Suelotto, CFA 55 1 121 78 61 04
Transportation, Logistics, Malls and Com m ercial Properties Edigim ar Maxim iliano Jr. 55 112178 5327 maximiliano @bradesco bbi.co m.br Luiz Peanha 55 1 121 78 5324 pecanha@bradesco bbi.co m.br Andr Mazini 55 1 121 78 51 09 andre.mazini@bradesco bbi.co m.br Leandro Fontanesi 55 1 121 78 4274 leandro .fo ntanesi@bradesco bbi.co m.br Hom ebuilding Luiz Mauricio Garcia Alain Nicolau
Electric Utilities, Water & Sew age Renata Cristovo 55 1 121 78 4273
Each analyst w hose nam e is in bold print is the principal analyst responsible for the content of reports on the respective sector, as w ell as fulfillm ent of the provisions of Art. 16 of CVM Instruction 483/10.
juvenal@bradesco bbi.co m.br tiago valent@bradesco bbi.co m.br gustavo .paiva@bradesco bbi.co m.br catherine@bradesco bbi.co m.br
ro gerio @bradesco bbi.co m.br dauro @bradesco bbi.co m.br denise.chicuta@bradesco bbi.co m.br patricia.bile@bradesco bbi.co m.br
Traders Cssio Garcia Fbio Brisola Gustavo Ize Ingrid Amorim Julio Cesar Rossi Mauricio Sanchez Peter Gil Silene Zinhani Stock Loans Desk - 55 11 3556 3001 Marcio Aguiar Wilson Pereira
cssio @bradesco bbi.co m.br fabio @bradesco bbi.co m.br gustavo pereira@bradesco bbi.co m.br ingrid@bradesco bbi.co m.br cesarro ssi@bradesco bbi.co m.br mauricio @bradesco bbi.co m.br peter@bradesco bbi.co m.br silene@bradesco bbi.co m.br
agnaldo @bradesco bbi.co m.br do uglas.co razza@bradesco bbi.co m.br eduardo .bueno @bradesco bbi.co m.br jo o .batista@bradesco bbi.co m.br bo neri@bradesco bbi.co m.br paulo .carmo @bradesco bbi.co m.br pedro .fo nseca@bradesco bbi.co m.br sando val@bradesco bbi.co m.br
BM&F Trading Desk - 55 11 3556 3350 Jos Lzaro Ferreira - Head Lilian Osti - Commercial Manager
Bradesco Securities UK, Ltd Sales 44 207 382 0070 Robert Hulme Roland Campbell
Sales - Fixed Incom e 44 207 382 0074 Zraick Guilherme Fernanda Jordan