Hardtalk: Sir Nigel Sheinwald Introduction: In or out?

For the next five years Britains future in the European Union could be shrouded in uncertainty thanks to David Camerons commitment to a referendum. He believes his dramatic gamble will pay off not just at home, but in Europe, too, allowing him to recalibrate Britains relationship with Brussels. But will it work? My guest today is Sir Nigel Sheinwald was the UKs top diplomat at the EU, foreign policy advisor to Tony Blair and then ambassador in Washington. Is the Cameron EU gambit in Britains national interest? 1. You, in recent past, have been to the Prime Minister. 2. But do you accept the that Cameron makes, the context he puts to this which is, in his view, that disillusion, in the UK with the EU is at an all-time high and that consent for membership of the European Union is, in his words, wafer thin? 3. What are the factors within that, is it only about the European Union, is it more to do with the general , the general state of our economy? After all the measures which were announced here, our have nothing to do with the Euro, nothing to do with Brussels. These are measures which our government and our Parliament have . 4. Youre sort of the public has got it wrong? 5. Theres that are normally at the root of most of these opinion polls. 6. If you do accept the contention that disillusion with the EU in Britain is an all-time high is it not a terrible indictment of that people at the centre of the policy making establishment who for years have conducted Britains foreign policy toward the EU without consulting the British public and I would include you in those who face this .? 7. But there very few . on which we have running referenda in this country whether its about the running of our economy, the fundamentals of our international relations, the big moral and social issues of our time. 8. Yes. It . this key question of Britains in Europe and let us not forget that your former boss, the man you advised for years, Tony Blair, did indicate that he was willing . a referendum as Europe looked to create a new constitution in the early 2000s. You appeared to be supportive that. In the end it became very complicated. We ended up with the . But Britain and the British people never had that vote that Blair had pointed toward. 9. The issue today is whether that is going to be the case. If David Cameron achieves his objectives as he discussed them in his speech, then in fact there would be to Britain of powers. 10. Whether the significant that hes after of transfer of powers back to the UK, a fundamental reform of our role in Europe whether that is achievable in the he has talked about. 11. When youre in a negotiation of twenty-seven everyone ., everyones got a gun in the room. Its not as though we are the only ones who have domestic politics and . to look after. 12. They have to to what we want just as we have to to what they want when youre looking at . 13. All of that is undoubtedly true. The question is how the .. sits within that negotiation. 14. She has not in any sense at all , or negative about what Cameron said. 15. They will judge this according to their national interest and their . And at the moment thats bound up with the of the Euro, they all want to do nothing which undermines the of the Eurozone economy, or the core of the single market that were talking about as the thing that we most want to belong to. 16. Well, sure as you know Camerons far from unravelling the single market. He wants to the single market. Thats the upon which he bases British membership of the European Union. 17. In the past, theres no doubt that weve got a from our partners. Youre absolutely right. We got the from the Economic and Monetary Union, we got actually a social which lasted until the Labour government came in in 97, and we have an on Schengen, we have an . essentially on justice and home affairs, we can decide what we want to do there. 18. That Britain will out in terms of investment, in terms of growth, in terms of jobs because of the political situation we find ourselves in today. 19. Everyone agrees with that. And, you know, all the business organisations want to see less of , they want to see a the single market, a greater focus on international competitiveness, that . 20. And if it needs , it just leaves a question in my mind why diplomats like you singed up to all the . that now we all see in the first place? 21. From his analyses, far from creating jobs, the EU with all of its red tape, and everything else, working time directives, ., he says it destroys jobs, and he also adds the idea that we wouldnt trade with the EU if we werent part of it is just, in his words, a joke. 22. They would want to trade with us. But what position would we be in? There are a couple of models for countries which have very close with the European Union, but which are not inside it. Theyre Norway and Switzerland. And in neither case do those countries . the regulations which they take on in order to be part of, in Switzerlands case some parts of the single market, in Norways case all parts of the . 23. But the of us being able to dip into the single market from the outside, if we basically decide we are going to stay out, are not terribly good. 24. Youve talked about the danger of Britain heading for the as though you believed a referendum could somehow produce a situation in which the somehow accidentally votes for an exit. And to me that sounds like a very patronising view of the UK publics ability to make sense of this entire argument. 25. At the moment, the last looking at the in-out debate suggests that frankly the majority may staying in, which is another reason to say why be so cautious about the notion of putting this to referendum? 26. Five years of uncertainty, five years of a chilling effect on , five years of questioning where were going to end in the end. 27. Who, given your very recent knowledge of European diplomacy, who do you think would be the main obstacle, the main to Cameron getting what he wants? It seems to me that Germans, and certainly the Scandinavians, the Czechs and a few others are . Who do you think will be the biggest hurdle? 28. If the other members of the European Union are saying: For us in the Eurozone we want another great , we want to change the fundamental . of the European Union, have major constitution reform. That provides a for the UK to put forward a bigger package. But say they dont do that. Say they decide they can do most of what they need in terms of through smaller measures, without changing the fundamentals of the EU, in that circumstance I think well look rather with a very very big package of our own. 29. Philip Gordon, Assistant Secretary of State, came to London and made it , speaking on behalf of President Obama, that the United States regard it as an important for the United States that Britain inside the European Union and, to quote Philip Gordon, that referendums have often turned countries inward. It was a in British political debate, wasnt it? 30. Do you think its helpful that that sort of signal is sent so publicly from Washington, because it certainly rubs some British people the wrong way? 31. I think it is helpful because it reminds people of the . 32. It reminds them that were in some senses diplomatically still in Americas . 33. An email was in which you talked about not just his high intelligence and his star quality, but also his and his ability to be insensitive. Now, that were in to or about to see his second term how do you believe hes handled ? 34. Well, his foreign policy making, if you look at the has been successful both in America and in Western Europe. 35. Particularly thinking for example of the way hes handled Israel-Palestine, the for Middle-East peace which, I think, its fair to say some in the British havent been terribly impressed . 36. But he came up against an in the shape of the Israeli Prime Minister. And he wasnt able to get the movement on settlements, on Israeli in the Palestinian . 37. You saw President Obama and Netanyahu go head to head on this question of settlement building and Obama first. Was that a mistake? 38. Do you think hell invest real in the second term in trying to bring Israel and the Palestinians to a agreement? 39. And thats another factor in which I think the Obama Administration is handling the issue with c and c . 40. And trying to put the brakes Israel. 41. And trying to put the brakes Israel. And I dont think theres an . between the two, but the two things are clearly on the table at the same time. 42. 60 000 people, many of them , have been killed in Syria. Do you not now see the same urgent need for military . in Syria? 43. Its a principle. But it can only be applied if you find a way of doing it. 44. Syria was always going to be very difficult from that point of view a number of reasons. First of all, because in Libya you had an enclave which we could protect, a . which we could protect. That was not the case in Syria, and . because Syria had, and still has, the protection from Iran and from Russia which prevents United Nations action and which makes it very very difficult for us to take action other than the very strong weve taken.

Hardtalk: Sir Nigel Sheinwald Teachers Copy Introduction: In or out? For the next five years Britains future in the European Union could be shrouded in uncertainty thanks to David Camerons commitment to a referendum. He believes his dramatic gamble will pay off not just at home, but in Europe, too, allowing him to recalibrate Britains relationship with Brussels. But will it work? My guest today is Sir Nigel Sheinwald was the UKs top diplomat at the EU, foreign policy advisor to Tony Blair and then ambassador in Washington. Is the Cameron-EU gambit in Britains national interest? 1. You, in recent past, have been foreign policy advisor to the Prime Minister. 2. But do you accept the contention that Cameron makes, the context he puts to this which is, in his view, that disillusion, public disillusion in the UK with the EU is at an alltime high and that consent for membership of the European Union is, in his words, wafer thin? 3. What are the factors within that, is it only about the European Union, is it more to do with the general state of politics, the general state of our economy? After all the measures which were announced here, our austerity measures have nothing to do with the Euro, nothing to do with Brussels. These are measures which our government and our Parliament have enacted. 4. Youre sort of implying the public has got it wrong? 5. Theres a tangle of issues that are normally at the root of most of these opinion polls. 6. If you do accept the contention that disillusion with the EU in Britain is an all-time high is it not a terrible indictment of policy makers that people at the centre of the policy making establishment who for years have conducted Britains foreign policy toward the EU without consulting the British public and I would include you in those who face this indictment? 7. But there very few major public policy issues on which we have running referenda in this country whether its about the running of our economy, the fundamentals of our international relations, the big moral and social issues of our time. 8. Yes. It gets down to this key question of Britains constitutional place in Europe and let us not forget that your former boss, the man you advised for years, Tony Blair, did indicate that he was willing to contemplate a referendum as Europe looked to create a new constitution in the early 2000s. You appeared to be supportive of that. In the end it became very complicated. We ended up with the Lisbon Treaty. But Britain and the British people never had that vote that Blair had pointed toward. 9. The issue today is whether that is going to be the case. If David Cameron achieves his objectives as he discussed them in his speech, then in fact there would be a transfer back to Britain of powers. 10. Whether the significant new settlement that hes after of transfer of powers back to the UK, a fundamental reform of our role in Europe whether that is achievable in the time frame he has talked about. 11. When youre in a negotiation of twenty-seven everyone wields a veto, everyones got a gun in the room. Its not as though we are the only ones who have domestic politics and domestic constituencies to look after. 12. They have to assent to what we want just as we have to assent to what they want when youre looking at constitutional change. 13. All of that is undoubtedly true. The question is how the balance of powers sits within that negotiation. 14. She has not in any sense at all sounded rejectionist, or negative about what Cameron said. 15. They will judge this according to their national interest and their national economic interest. And at the moment thats bound up with the survival of the Euro, they all want to do nothing which undermines the recovery of the Eurozone economy, or unravels the core of the single market that were talking about as the thing that we most want to belong to. 16. Well, sure as you know Camerons far from unravelling the single market. He wants to strengthen the single market. Thats the premise upon which he bases British membership of the European Union. 17. In the past, theres no doubt that weve got a certain accommodation from our partners. Youre absolutely right. We got the opt-out from the Economic and Monetary Union, we got actually a social opt-out which lasted until the Labour government came in in 97, and we have an opt-out on Schengen, we have an opt-out essentially on justice and home affairs, we can decide what we want to do there. 18. That Britain will lose out in terms of investment, in terms of growth, in terms of jobs because of the political situation we find ourselves in today. 19. Everyone agrees with that. And, you know, all the business organisations want to see less of red tape, they want to see a greater focus on the single market, a greater focus on international competitiveness, that goes without saying. 20. And if it needs fundamental reform, it just leaves a question in my mind why diplomats like you singed up to all the arrangements that now we all see in the first place? 21. From his analyses, far from creating jobs, the EU with all of its red tape, regulation and everything else, working time directives, the lot, he says it destroys jobs, and he also adds the idea that we wouldnt trade with the EU if we werent part of it is just, in his words, a joke. 22. They would want to trade with us. But what position would we be in? There are a couple of models for countries which have very close relationships with the European Union, but which are not inside it. Theyre Norway and Switzerland. And in neither case do those countries have any say in the regulations which they take on in order to be part of, in Switzerlands case some parts of the single market, in Norways case all parts of the single market. 23. But the prospects of us being able to dip into the single market from the outside, if we basically decide we were going to stay out, are not terribly good. 24. Youve talked about the danger of Britain heading for the exit by accident as though you believed a referendum could somehow produce a situation in which the British electorate somehow accidentally votes for an exit. And to me that sounds like a very patronising view of the UK publics ability to make sense of this entire argument. 25. At the moment, the last set of polls looking at the in-out debate suggests that frankly the majority may be there for staying in, which is another reason to say why be so cautious about the notion of putting this to referendum? 26. Five years of uncertainty, five years of a chilling effect on inward investment, five years of questioning where were going to end in the end. 27. Who, given your very recent knowledge of European diplomacy, who do you think would be the main obstacle, the main blocking voices to Cameron getting what he wants? It seems to me that Germans, and certainly the Scandinavians, the Czechs and a few others are up for it. Who do you think will be the biggest hurdle? 28. If the other members of the European Union are saying: For us in the Eurozone we want another great leap of integration, we want to change the fundamental treaties of the European Union, have major constitution reform. That provides a platform for the UK to put forward a bigger package. But say they dont do that. Say they decide they can most of what they need in terms of Eurozone governance through smaller measures, without changing the fundamentals of the EU, in that circumstance I think well look rather high and dry with a very very big package of our own. 29. Philip Gordon, Assistant Secretary of State, came to London and made it very plain, speaking on behalf of President Obama, that the United States regard it as an important national interest for the United States that Britain remain inside the European Union and, to quote Philip Gordon, that referendums have often turned countries inward. It was a blatant intervention in British political debate, wasnt it? 30. Do you think its helpful that that sort of signal is sent so publicly from Washington, because it certainly rubs some British people up the wrong way? 31. I think it is helpful because it reminds people of the big picture. 32. It reminds them that were in some senses diplomatically still in Americas pocket. 33. An email was leaked in which you talked about not just his high intelligence and his star quality, but also his aloofness and his ability to be insensitive. Now, that were in to or about to see his second term how do you believe hes handled foreign policy making? 34. Well, his foreign policy making, if you look at the public opinion polls has been successful both in America and in Western Europe. 35. Particularly thinking for example of the way hes handled Israel-Palestine, the quest for Middle-East peace which, I think, its fair to say some in the British Foreign Office havent been terribly impressed by. 36. But he came up against an absolute block in the shape of the Israeli Prime Minister. And he wasnt able to get the movement on settlements, on Israeli settlements in the Palestinian territories. 37. You saw President Obama and Netanyahu go head to head on this question of settlement building and Obama blinked first. Was that a mistake? 38. Do you think hell invest real political capital in the second term in trying to bring Israel and the Palestinians to a peace agreement? 39. And thats another factor in which I think the Obama Administration is handling the issue with caution and care. 40. And trying to put the brakes on Israel. 41. And trying to put the brakes on Israel. And I dont think theres an exact linkage between the two, but the two things are clearly on the table at the same time. 42. 60 000 people, many of them civilian, have been killed in Syria. Do you not now see the same urgent need for military intervention in Syria? 43. Its a universal principle. But it can only be applied if you find a feasible way of doing it. 44. Syria was always going to be very difficult from that point of view for a number of reasons. First of all, because in Libya you had an enclave which we could protect, a geographical enclave which we could protect. That was not the case in Syria, and principally because Syria had, and still has, the protection from Iran and from Russia which prevents United Nations action and which makes it very very difficult for us to take action other than the very strong political action weve taken.