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Multi-Agent Behavioral Modeling of Traffic Applied to E-Vehicles

A. K. T. Ferma, W. F. Infante, R. M. Mojica, J. R. B. Polidario, C. K. B. Tan Department of Electronics, Computer and Communications Engineering Ateneo de Manila University Loyola Heights, Quezon City February 18, 2013 Abstract The study aims to promote a feasible implementation of an E-Vehicle system as an alternate means of public utility in the Philippine setting. The study will use the tools of Agent-Based Simulations as a means to emulate real world traffic policies and gather drive cycle data of E-Vehicles simulated in that environment. MATLAB will then be used to analyse the drive-cycle data particular to these set-ups in order to realize the traffic policy that can bring the most optimized fuel consumption in the E-Vehicles.

I. A. Objectives

INTRODUCTION

greater. This behaviour affects lane utilization and results in frequent unavoidable breaking. Furthermore, video footages near jeepney stops show a significant non-observance of lanes. As a part of his study, Palmiano mentions that there is a high frequency of lane non-observance, especially in 3lane to 4-lane roads. Table 1 below shows the frequency of this non-observance in detail. Notice that the average value of non-observance is 14.3% while the peak is at 22% in a 5-minute interval [2].

The study aims to achieve the following objectives: (1) To be able to obtain empirical data from authorities such as NCTS and MMDA, and gather measurements of various factors relevant to the study, (2) Data gathering from the field, (3) To design several traffic scenarios and policies suitable for an E-Jeepneys transportation system, and (4) To be able to see the degradations or improvements to the E-Jeepney fuel consumption and overall throughput given each of the simulated traffic scenario.
II.

Table 1: Frequency of Lane Observance.

C. Hybrid Electric Vehicles

REVIEW OF RELATED LITERATURE

A. Multi-Agent Based Modeling

Mathematicians, engineers, and various other scientists have tried making solutions to problems regarding complex systems, and as such, the most probable method to simplify these systems to a certain degree is to represent the individual agents that make up the system and represent them in a higher level. The capability of being able to model the simplistic behaviour or these individual elements and allowing them to interact with each other in a simulated environment is the concept of what is known as Multi-Agent Based modelling. It should be noted that in Multi-Agent modelling, the behaviour of the agents, the scale of the explicit space in which the interactions of agents are occurring, and the duration of their interactions should be taken into consideration [1].
B. Motorist Behavior

The aggressive nature of Filipino traffic is heavily attributed to what is referred to as Aggressive Lateral Driving. This is most observable at jeepney stops where the chances of swerving or changing lane are

An Electric Vehicle is a vehicle whose prime mover is electric power, as opposed to conventional vehicles which uses an internal combustion or diesel engine. A hybrid vehicle is simply a vehicle that has two movers. Popular implementations of hybrid systems include the Parallel Hybrid and Series Hybrid variants. Parallel Hybrid vehicles are designed such that an electric motor and/or the internal combustion engine can be used as a prime mover. For this set-up, the system itself, depending on the situation and the power demand, uses either the electric motor or combustion engine as prime mover. The set-up can either use both engines as prime movers, where fuel efficiency is the determining factor in which of the two engines will be used. The internal combustion engine can also charge the electric motor if needed. These systems are designed with redundancy in mind as a fail-safe option in case one of the engines break down, the other can be used as a prime mover instead. The Series Hybrid model is made such that the electric motor becomes the prime mover of the system, while the internal combustion engine is optimized as a driver for the battery banks, which acts as a power supply for the electric motor. It is a relatively simple set-up; however, the battery banks

must be sufficiently large in order to have an optimized system.

III.

METHODOLOGY

A. General Overview

Figure 1: Simple Schematic of a Typical Hybrid Vehicle Design

D. NetLogo

The simulation software of choice for multi-agent based modelling used in the study is NetLogo, which allows easy entry level programs and accommodate high level agent-based modelling such as in the researchers case. The end result would be a traffic system whose tendencies and trends can be observed as data that can be easily exported for further analyses.

Figure 3: Methodological Framework

The researchers are to follow the following methodology: (1) Data gathering from authorities, (2) Field data gathering, (3) Simulation input approximation, (4) Traffic policy simulations, and (5) Software calculation. The researchers would begin by gathering traffic data in the form of recent Annual Average Daily Traffic (AADT) records of major highways from sources such as the Metropolitan Manila Development Authority (MMDA) or academic institutions like the National Center for Transportation Studies (NCTS) in University of the Philippines-Diliman. This is followed by Actual data gathering, both from a field location and within a vehicle. The first part would involve taking 10-15 minute (or longer depending on use) video samples of traffic. The second part would involve the measurement of vehicle-specific data such as cruising and U-turn speeds. These data are combined with physical data to simulate as close as possible to real scenario. NetLogo will be used as the simulation platform of choice. The drive cycle output from the NetLogo simulations would then be used as an input to the series hybrid electric vehicle simulated in MATLAB. This model will then calculate and produce efficiency plots based on the drive-cycle behaviour generated by the NetLogo simulations.

Figure 2: Predator-Prey Model Simulated in NetLogo.

E. Traffic Simulations

If a particular traffic scenario is modelled correctly, it can provide the means to produce a drive cycle output that reflects the trend and behaviour of traffic. Inputting the drive cycle output as an input to a Quasi-Static Simulation Toolbox-generated Series Hybrid vehicle in MATLAB produces efficiency plots of the vehicles when subjected to certain conditions and policies. This provided the groundwork for further study involving the use of Agent-Based modelling as a tool for traffic engineering.

3 IV. CONCLUSION

Figure 4: Traffic and Vehicle Simulation Set-Up.

B.

Data Gathering and Results

Random Stops Fixed Stops 4-Lane w/Fixed stops 4-Lane w/Fixed Stops and Exclusiv e Lane (Low jeep count)

Compare Against

The study points to the aggressive nature of Metro Manila traffic as the main reason of the unviability of E-vehicles as an alternative mode of public utility. The constant stop and go traffic, as well as, aggressive lateral movement of vehicles in the Philippines are the main causes of traffic congestion and fuel-inefficiency. These behaviours have an adverse effect on the engine, as well as, the loading and unloading of passengers. However, there have been promising results by gradually eliminating these problems with implementing the four main cases discussed. Lastly, although the system is far from being perfect, it is a step in the right direction. It only proves that there are two sides in E-vehicle implementation one is making an efficient engine, and another is engineering a better traffic system for it.

Fixed Stops

Fuel: 14.92% decrease. Passengers: 148.78% increase. Fuel: 20.18% decrease. Passengers: 724.05% increase. Fuel: 33.41% decrease. Passengers: 851.67% increase. Fuel: 6.18% decrease. Passengers: 231.44% increase. Fuel: 21.73% decrease. Passengers: 282.54% increase. Fuel: 16.58% decrease. Passengers: 15.49% increase.

REFERENCES
[1] Mitchell, Melanie. "Dynamics, Chaos and Prediction" Complexity - A Guided Tour. New York: Oxford UP, 2009. 14-27. Print. [2] Palmiano, Hilario Sean, Ueda Shimpei, Tetsuo Yai, and Daisuke Fukuda. Development Of A Simulation System For Jeepney Stop Vicinity Located In Front Of A Shopping Center. Thesis. Tokyo Institute of Technology, 2003. Print.
Fuel: 202.49% increase. Passenge rs: 4.92% increase.

4-Lane w/Fixed stops

4-Lane w/Fixed Stops and Exclusive Lane (Low jeep count) 4-Lane w/Fixed Stops and Exclusive Lane (High jeep count)

Fuel: 108.09% increase. Passengers: 898.44% increase.

Fuel: 144.58% increase. Passengers: 301.34% increase.

Fuel: 160.69% increase. Passengers: 21.16% increase.

[3] Teodoro, Rene Val R., Dr. Eng. Empirical Analysis on the Relationship Between Air Pollution And Traffic Flow Parameters. Thesis. University of the Philippines Diliman, 1996. Quezon City: 1996. Print.

Table 4: Average percentage difference summary of best sub cases.

Compare Against Random Stops Fixed Stops 4-Lane w/Fixed stops 4-Lane w/Fixed Stops and Exclusive Lane (Low jeep count) 4-Lane w/Fixed Stops and Exclusive Lane (High jeep count) Fuel Consumption (L/100KM) 34.99 29.77 27.93 23.3 72.81 Passenger Throughput 449 1117 3700 4273 4483

Table 4: Fuel Consumption and Passenger throughput of each best sub case.