BBVA EAGLEs
Madrid, April 2014
Economic Analysis
Emerging Economies
Chief Economist Alicia Garca-Herrero alicia.garcia-herrero@bbva.com.hk
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Figure 2
Thailand Malaysia Vietnam Indonesia Cambodia Korea S.Arabia Poland Chile Germany Philippines Russia Canada Mexico S.Africa China UK Italy France Turkey Spain Argentina India Taiwan Australia Japan Brazil US
According to these two criteria we rank emerging countries by the economic relevance of exports as follows (Figure 5): Most of the small/medium-sized East Asian countries present a more limited connection with domestic production, but this is clearly offset by much higher trade openness. Connectivity of Chinese exports is the highest in the sample, compensating for a limited percentage of GDP. Among commodity exporters, Saudi Arabia is more open than Chile, Russia and South Africa (all of them around average), but its exports have a more limited domestic connection. Manufacturers in Emerging Europe share average domestic connectivity of exports, although Poland is much more open than Turkey. Exports represent a limited share of GDP in large Asian and Latin American economies. Brazil records high export connection in contrast to average figures for India and low levels for Indonesia and especially Mexico.
Emerging countries are defined according to our recently updated methodology for the EAGLEs Annual Report: www.bbvaresearch.com/KETD/fbin/mult/2014_EAGLEs_Economic_Outllok-Annual_tcm348-437158.pdf?ts=3132014
Japan Korea Taiwan Germany China Italy Philippines Thailand Spain Poland France US UK Turkey India WORLD Mexico Argentina Malaysia Indonesia Brazil Canada Cambodia Vietnam Australia S.Africa Russia Chile S.Arabia
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Figure 3
Figure 4
Agriculture Mining Food products Textiles, leather Wood, paper Chem., non-met. Metals Mach.,Equip. Electrical, opt.eq. Transport eq. Other manuf. Utilities Construction Trade, hotels, rest. Transport, comm. Finance, insurance Business services Other services
Basic
Manufactured goods
Services
Avg. Max
NB: data from mid-00s input-output tables Source: BBVA Research, OECD
NB: data from mid-00s input-output tables Source: BBVA Research, OECD
In addition to pure production issues, other dimensions have to be taken into account when assessing the economic relevance of exports: Despite a lower production multiplier, services are intensive in labour and therefore a key sector in aggregate purchasing power and consumption capacity, which in turn conditions demand for manufacturing products at home if competitive enough. Revenues from commodity exports (also with lower domestic connectivity) affect money supply, credit availability and fiscal revenues, generating spill-overs for companies and households (either positive or negative depending on foreign demand and terms of trade). In aggregate terms, positive externalities for productivity and technology arise from exporting activities.
Figure 5
China
2.2
2.0 1.8 1.6
Japan Brazil US S.Africa FranceItaly Aust. Poland Turkey Argent. Spain Philip. Chile India UK Russia Germany Indonesia
Relevance of exports to GDP and connection with domestic production are limited
Canada Mexico
S.Arabia
1.4
1.2 0
10
20
30
40
NB: Data from mid-00s input-output tables and from 2009 for exports to GDP ratios; solid lines refer to the simple average for EMs and the distance between dashed lines represents one standard deviation around this average. Source: BBVA Research, OECD and IMF
China Japan Brazil Korea S.Africa Italy France Turkey US Australia Thailand Argentina Poland Cambodia Chile Malaysia Spain Philippines India Germany Russia UK Canada S.Arabia Indonesia Vietnam Mexico
Exports are relevant to GDP and are well connected with domestic production
Vietnam
Exports are relevant to GDP but connection with domestic production is limited
70
80
90
100
110
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Diversification index
The first step is to calculate the revealed comparative advantage of each country j in each product i (RCAi,j), which is equal to the share of exports of i in country j divided by the share of exports of i in the world. Data are available also at the OECD Trade in Value Added (TiVA) database. We then build an exports-weighted comparative advantage for country j. revealed
Industry groups
We have developed our analysis for 18 economic activities as defined by the OECD Trade in Value Added (TiVA) database. These activities correspond to groups of industries according to the NACE classification. For those variables for which we have more disaggregated information we compute the exportsweighted value for the 18 economic reference activities.
Finally, the diversification index (DI) is defined as the inverse of this aggregate: DIj = 1 / [ i (X i,j /X j) x RCAi,j]
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Figure 7
Agriculture Mining Food products Textiles, leather Wood, paper Chem., non-met. Metals Mach.,Equip. Electrical, opt.eq. Transport eq. Other manuf. Utilities Construction Trade, hotels, rest. Transport, comm. Finance, insurance Business services Other services
Basic
Manufactures
Services
We put all this information together and group emerging countries according to their ability to retain value-added at home: Commodity producers retain much more value on a direct basis through exports than other countries. However, in addition to risks stemming from product concentration (see next section), they also show a larger share of value drained through imports of final goods. Anyway, the picture is diverse among this group: - Among those with high ratios of value-added over exports, Chile and Saudi Arabia spend a significant share of this value on imports of consumption and capital goods. In contrast, Brazil and Indonesia retain most of it through domestic production. Most East Asian commodity exporters (Cambodia, Malaysia and Vietnam) not only retain less value in aggregate terms but also import a substantial share of capital goods (40% of gross fixed capital formation).
S.Arabia Russia Brazil Argentina Australia Indonesia S.Africa US UK Chile Japan Canada Italy Spain Turkey India France Poland Germany Mexico Cambodia China Thailand Vietnam Malaysia Philippines Korea
100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0
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Figure 8
Korea
Colombia
Egypt
Indonesia
Poland
Russia
China
Philippines
Chile
Argentina
Germany
Spain
Cambodia
Australia
Malaysia
S.Africa
Pakistan
Vietnam
Mexico
Turkey
France
Brazil
India
Peru
Italy
UK
US
Thailand
Canada
Imports of consumption goods as a % of private consumption Imports of capital goods as a % of gross fixed capital formation
NB: 2010 data Source: BBVA Research, UN, IMF and Haver
Economies rated as manufacturers retain less value from exports, but on the other hand are less dependent on imports of final goods: - Mexico, Poland and especially Turkey retain as much value as a standard developed country on a higher contribution of basic products in the first case and from services in the other two. East Asian manufacturers retain less value from exports. Only Thailand and Poland show significant shares of imported capital goods.
India is a special case as its comparative advantage is in exports of services, thus retaining more value than manufacturers.
2: The revealed comparative advantage of country j in product i is equal to the share of exports of i in country j divided b y the share of exports of i in the world.
S.Arabia
Nigeria
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Japan
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Product diversification shelters countries from external shocks as it avoids tail scenarios for revenues. The channels are completely different for those economies with market power in world exports. These countries benefit from economies of scale and price-fixing capacities. In order to measure this we have built a world market power index, which is equal to the exportsweighted country share in world exports for each industry (Figure 10): China shows the highest value not only among emerging economies but also when considering all the sample, inverting with the US the rank order given by the exports share in nominal terms. China holds the largest share among emerging markets in the sample for 9 out of 18 industries, including all manufacturing groups except food (surpassed by Brazil). The largest industry share corresponds to textiles and leather (above 30%). Russia and especially Saudi Arabia are well ahead in the ranking due to their key role in the oil market for which they show a high degree of product concentration. India and Mexico have a similar share of world exports, although the market power index is significantly higher for the former on dominant positions in other manufactures and business services. According to this approach, small economies, for which world market power is much more limited, diversification is the remaining option to shelter from external turbulences.
Figure 9
Figure 10
0.5 0.4
0.3 0.2 0.1
S.Arabia Cambodia Vietnam Philippines Chile Argentina Russia Australia S.Africa India Taiwan Brazil China Turkey UK Thailand Japan Poland Indonesia Korea Mexico Spain Canada Malaysia Germany Italy France US
0.0
Cambodia S.Africa Philippines Argentina Chile Indonesia Poland Vietnam Turkey Malaysia Thailand Mexico Brazil Spain Australia Taiwan Canada India Korea Italy France Russia Japan UK S.Arabia Germany US China
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Figure 12
Exports and imports of products with technological content rated as medium-high (% of total exports and imports)
70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0
Office, accounting and computing machinery Radio, television and communication equipment Chemicals and chemical products Medical, precision and optical instruments
Motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers Computer and related activities Machinery and equipment n.e.c Electrical machinery and apparatus n.e.c
Avg.
Perc.25%
Perc.75%
NB: 2009 data; only activities with R&D expenditure over 5% of value-added Source: BBVA Research, OECD
NB: 2009 data ; sectors/activities included are chemicals and chemical products, machinery and equipment, transport equipment, computer and related activities and research and development Source: BBVA Research, OECD
According to their respect share of exports with medium-high technology as well as the net balance, we group emerging countries in the sample as follows (Figure 12): The Philippines has a share of more than 60% of total exports as well as a significant technology surplus. Medium-high tech exports are also significant for China, Mexico, Thailand and Poland (40-50%), although so are imports. India and Malaysia have similar levels (40%) but contrasting balances (surplus vs. deficit respectively). The other countries, which export 25% or less of this kind of product and are predominantly commodity producers, have a significant negative balance.
S.Arabia Vietnam Cambodia Chile S.Africa Australia Russia Indonesia Argentina Brazil Turkey Canada Spain UK Poland India Italy Thailand Malaysia US France Mexico China Germany Korea Taiwan Japan Philippines
Exports
Imports
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Regarding other dimensions of exports, the technological content seems to be negatively correlated with the value-retention of exports (Figure 13). This outcome is natural considering that in the majority of countries medium-high tech exports consist of manufactured goods, which, as noted above, retain less value than services or basic products. Beyond this argument, data also suggest that the real problem for emerging economies specialising in manufactured goods, and in particular for those exporting a higher share of medium-high tech goods, is creating and retaining value. For example, the Philippines exports as many products rated as technologically advanced as Japan. However, the ratio of embodied value-added in exports is more than 20pp higher in Japan. Although to a lesser extent, this is also the case of Mexico and China compared with France and Germany, or in the case of Poland, Thailand and Malaysia relative to Italy and Spain. The extreme cases are Cambodia and Vietnam, which simultaneously lack technological content in their exports and fail to retain value.
Figure 13
Brazil
Argentina
Indonesia Turkey Canada Spain
UK India Poland
65
60 55
Cambodia Vietnam
Exports have lowmedium technological content and value generation is limited
Korea Philippines
Taiwan
50
0
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Exports with technological content rated as medium and high in OECD countries
80
NB: 2009 data; solid lines refer to the simple average for emerging countries and the distance between dashed lines represents one standard deviation around this average. Source: BBVA Research, OECD
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Summary of exports and trade indicators by country groups (ranked by synthetic index) (z-score values over the sample of emerging countries)
Economic relevance Exports to GDP China India -0.5 -0.7 2.5 -0.6 -0.3 1.9 0.7 1.1 -1.1 -0.7 -0.5 -0.2 -0.5 -0.7 0.2 -0.5 -0.1 -1.1 -1.1 -0.6 -0.2 0.3 -0.7 -0.7 -0.5 -0.8 -0.5 Domestic connectivity 2.9 -0.2 0.2 -1.0 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 -1.0 1.2 0.2 -1.7 -0.1 -0.4 0.3 -0.9 0.6 0.2 1.8 0.3 0.5 -0.3 0.8 0.4 -0.2 -0.4 0.3 -0.8 VA in exports -0.9 0.1 -0.9 0.7 -1.4 -1.2 -0.9 -1.1 1.2 1.0 -0.6 0.4 1.4 0.2 1.8 0.6 -0.4 0.4 0.5 0.2 -0.5 -1.5 -0.2 0.2 0.4 0.9 0.3 Value retention Imports of cons.goods (% cons.) 0.9 1.4 -0.1 0.9 0.5 -1.3 -0.4 -1.5 1.3 0.6 0.4 -0.7 -0.2 0.6 -2.1 0.3 -0.8 0.8 0.7 -0.4 -0.7 -0.2 -0.8 -0.6 -0.8 0.1 -0.5 Imports of inv.goods (% GFCF) 1.1 1.3 -0.8 0.9 0.9 -1.9 -1.4 -1.4 1.2 0.6 -0.3 -0.4 0.5 -0.1 0.4 0.1 -0.7 1.4 0.5 0.8 -0.4 0.1 0.4 1.0 -0.1 0.9 0.1 Specialization patterns Product diversification 0.5 0.0 0.8 1.1 -0.9 1.4 -1.5 -1.1 0.4 -0.6 1.3 -0.8 -0.3 0.5 -1.7 -0.1 1.1 1.0 2.1 1.8 1.6 1.2 2.0 1.3 0.6 -0.2 1.4 World market power 3.3 0.1 -0.3 -0.5 -0.5 -0.4 -0.8 -0.4 -0.2 -0.5 -0.2 -0.5 0.6 -0.4 1.5 -0.5 -0.4 0.9 2.2 0.3 1.9 0.2 0.4 0.0 0.9 0.0 0.1 Technology M-H tech. exports % 1.3 0.6 0.7 -0.4 2.0 0.7 -1.0 -1.0 -0.3 -0.4 1.3 -1.0 -0.8 0.0 -1.3 -0.9 0.6 1.9 0.7 0.7 1.4 1.8 0.9 0.4 0.5 -0.8 0.1 M-H tech. imports % -0.8 1.7 0.5 0.6 -0.3 -2.0 0.7 0.4 -0.4 -1.0 -1.4 0.2 0.6 -0.3 1.9 0.1 -0.4 1.4 -0.3 0.6 0.3 0.5 -0.1 0.5 0.6 -0.3 0.1 Synthetic index (average) 0.9 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.0 -0.3 -0.5 -0.7 0.4 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.9 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Thailand Indonesia Philippines Malaysia Cambodia Vietnam Brazil Argentina Mexico Chile Russia Turkey S.Arabia S.Africa Poland Japan US Italy Germany Korea France Spain UK Australia Canada
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Indonesia and Russia also outperform, sharing higher value-retention and lower economic relevance of exports, but diverging in the other dimensions (more diversification and technology content in Indonesia and world market power in Russia). Turkey leads the other manufacturers, ahead of the Philippines (limited diversification), Poland (lower value-retention), Mexico (limited domestic connection of exports) and especially Malaysia (poor value-retention and a high share of technology imports). Saudi Arabia ranks slightly better than the other commodity exporters, South Africa and Argentina, while Chile clearly underperforms with a moderate negative assessment in the four dimensions here analysed. Cambodia and Vietnam are the worst performers, particularly due to poor valueretention and low product diversification.
Figure 14
Synthetic index for export activity (contribution and values in standardised units over the sample of emerging countries)
1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 -0.2 -0.4 -0.6 -0.8 -1.0
Australia
Germany
Philippines
Indonesia
Malaysia
Technology
Source: BBVA Research
Specialization patterns
Value retention
Economic relevance
TOTAL
Cambodia
Thailand
Argentina
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Vietnam
S.Arabia
Spain
Canada
India
Turkey
UK
US
France
Russia
Korea
S.Africa
Japan
Mexico
Italy
Poland
China
Brazil
Chile
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