Demand forecasting

Submitted by: Zain Hassan (22720) Bilal ahmed (22533) Arsalan Ahmed (22518) Submitted to: IRFAN ALI DATE: 4th Dec 2013 Class: BBA 6-E

ABSTRACT
The report is a study on Nandos restaurants process analysis of serving its customers. Samples were collected through observations and analyzed on basis of exponential smoothing The statistical process control methods were used for measuring current process performance. Time series are the mediums of analysis in the report. The process is used to calculate the forecasting of the actual data. Respective to the restaurant, sale are actually the late servings or order per table. Thus no course of action is required by the management.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

PG #
INTRODUCTION ----------------------------------------------- 4 DATA COLLECTION METHOD ---------------------------- 5 MATHEMETICAL ANALYSIS ------------------------------ 6-10 QUALITY POLICY -------------------------------------------- 11 CONCLUSION ------------------------------------------------ 12 RECOMMENDATION --------------------------------------- 12

Introduction & Background of Company

Nandos Background
A few hundred years later (in 1987 to be exact), it was the same PERiPERi sauce that inspired Fernando Duarte to invite his friend Robbie Brozin to a humble Portuguese eatery in the heart of Rosettenville, South Africa to try some mouth-watering PERi-PERi marinated and basted chicken.

Nandos Pakistan

Nando's came to Pakistan in 2001 and is one of the oldest trading markets in Asia. Pakistan has seven Nando's outlets, four in Karachi, two in Lahore and one in Islamabad. Nando's specializes in flame-grilled Peri-Peri chicken. The chicken is served in quarters, halves, wholes, and butterfly breasts (UK, Ireland and South Africa only). Nando's also serves burgers, pitas, salads, wings and wraps. In some countries, Nandos sells chicken livers, Espetada (a large stand with a skewer of chicken breast and grilled peppers) and Cataplana (a chicken and rice dish served in a traditional Portuguese copper dish).

Report Analysis:
This segment of the report details about the methodology used for data gathering and preparation of the report. It will also include the analysis of the data and the formulas which were employed in data analysis.

Data Collection Methodology:

For the data gathering purpose we visited nandos in different outlets and ask about the cummulative sales in every day so we can find out sales of other days in coming order..

Mathematical Analysis
The data collected for the analysis is as follows: Observations weeks sales Exponential smoothing =0.20 ft 400 400 406 408 415 424 427 435 434 435 432

=0.40 ft 400 400 412 415 425 439 439 451 443 441 433

=0.60 ft 400 400 418 419 431 448 443 459 441 440 428

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11

400 430 420 440 460 440 470 430 440 420 -

FIGURE # 1

Formula: Ft=aXt-1+(1-a)Ft-1 Results:

Mean Absolute deviation for sales at =0.20 Is 163. Mean Absolute deviation for sales at =0.40 Is 173 Mean Absolute deviation for sales at =0.60 Is 167

Interpretations of the table

The table shows the sale of the different values at different alpha value which shows the mean absolute deviation on these values of alpha. We choose the lowest value of M.A.D which is 163 at = 0.20.

Nandos strives to ensure quality to all customers by continually improving the effectiveness of Quality Management System. To that end, Nandos works to the highest standards and specifications, not just for product ingredients; every detail of production, transport, delivery, preparation and service is exhaustively monitored as well. A focus on quality permeates every aspect of their business. The standards lead the food industry, and they continue to work towards international standards for total quality, food safety and the environment Nandos also recognizes the importance of a balanced diet and lifestyle and continues to

seek new quality products which satisfy customer expectations for taste and value. This dedication to quality earns the degree of trust customers place in the Nandos name.

CONCLUSION
The mathematical analysis and other tool used in the report concludes that Nandos Restaurant is a well running restaurant in all over Pakistan. The study shows the overall sales of the restaurant

RECOMMENDATIONS
The recommendations to the restaurant are, the chain should open more branches in Karachi so that the rush is distributed and environment on weekends become less chaotic.

Also expansion in other cities of the country where variations in m enu as citys specialties will bring in revenue to the restaurant.

References
o www.nandos.com.pk

o We are thankful to the manager and the management of nandos for co-operating with us.