NATIONAL LAW UNIVERSITY ODISHA

STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT
PROJECT TOPIC:

Assessing Technological Opportunity and Threats and Introduction to Technological Forecasting

SUBMITTED TO: MR. Arjyalopa Mishra SUBMITTED BY: Aman Pandey Daksa Pundir Mayank Mishra Pragalbh Bhardwaj Rishi Raj Steve Saldanha

Contents
INTRODUCTION .......................................................................................................................... 3 REVIEW OF LITERATURE ......................................................................................................... 6 OBJECTIVES ................................................................................................................................. 7 TECHNOLOGICAL OPPORTUNITIES ....................................................................................... 8 Impact of technology in business opportunity ............................................................................ 8 Technological opportunities of iPod ......................................................................................... 10 TECHNOLOGICAL THREATS .................................................................................................. 12 Technological threat posed by iPod .......................................................................................... 14 INTRODUCTION TO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING ................................................... 16 History....................................................................................................................................... 17 Methods of Technological Forecasting ..................................................................................... 21 The Delphi Method ................................................................................................................... 23 RESEARCH METHODOLOGY.................................................................................................. 25 CONCLUSION ............................................................................................................................. 26 BIBLIOGRAPHY ......................................................................................................................... 28 Books ........................................................................................................................................ 28 Journals ..................................................................................................................................... 28 Articles ...................................................................................................................................... 28 Web links .................................................................................................................................. 29 1. http://www.vanguardngr.com/2013/11/technology-driven-change-created-threatsopportunities-says-remisys-boss/ .................................................................................................. 29 2. http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0040162599000372............................... 29

INTRODUCTION
The term TECHNOLOGY comes from the Greek word techne meaning workmanship, expertise, crafty of hand and logia meaning logic. Technology has influenced society and its surroundings in various ways. In numerous social orders, technology has helped create more praiseworthy economies. Numerous innovative courses of action produce unwanted by-items, known as contamination, and exhaust characteristic assets, to the disservice of Earth's environment. Different usage of technology impacts the qualities of a society and new technology frequently raises new moral inquiries. Samples incorporate the ascent of the thought of proficiency as far as human benefit, a term initially connected just to machines, and the test of universal norms. The present paper we focus on The technological opportunities; Threats in relation to Apples iPod; A detailed study on what is technological forecasting; and How forecasting has affected the evolution of the iPod in last 13 years.

Firstly, we need to know that what an iPod is. The iPod is a line of portable media players planned and advertised by Apple Inc. The principal line was discharged on October 23, 2001. Almost about 8 months later iTunes was discharged. iTunes is a media player, media library, and cell phone administration requisition. The latest iPod overhauls were published on September 12, 2012. There are four current variants of the iPod: the ultra-small iPod Shuffle, the minimized iPod Nano, the touchscreen iPod Touch, and the hard drive-based iPod Classic. The device was generally greeted with a yawn by the mainstream tech community. One reviewer said it would be a "nice feature" for Mac users but that it wouldn't make a lick of difference in the Windows world (which was basically the whole world). Of course, as we now know, the iPod actually started a gadget revolution, one that eventually led to the iPhone and iPad and

to Apple's unseating Microsoft as the most valuable tech company in the world. The iPod has come a long way since its launch. The device Steve Jobs showed off 10 years ago promised "1,000 songs in your pocket" for $400. Despite the fact that the iPod was discharged in 2001, its cost and Mac-just similarity created deals to be moderately abate until 2004.The iPod line originated from Apple's "computerized center point" classification, when the organization started making programming for the developing business sector of individual advanced mechanisms. Computerized Polaroid, camcorders and coordinators had settled standard markets, however the organization discovered existing advanced music players "enormous and clunky or little and pointless" with client interfaces that were "fantastically awful," so Apple chose to create its own. As requested by CEO Steve Jobs, Apple's equipment building head Jon Rubinstein gathered a group of designers to outline the iPod line, including fittings engineers Tony Fadell and Michael Dhuey, and configuration engineer Sir Jonathan Ive. Rubinstein had found the Toshiba plate drive when meeting with an Apple supplier in Japan, and bought the rights to it for Apple, and had likewise worked out how the screen, battery, and other key components might work. The item ("the Walkman of the twenty-first century") was produced in under one year and uncovered on October 23, 2001. Occupations declared it as a Mac-perfect item with a 5 GB hard drive that put "1,000 tunes in your pocket." Apple completed not create the iPod programming fully in-house, rather utilizing Portal player's reference stage dependent upon two ARM centers. The stage had simple programming running on a business microkernel inserted working framework. Portal player had formerly been chipping away at an IBM-marked Mp3 player with Bluetooth headphones. Apple contracted an alternate organization, Pixo, to help plan and execute the client interface under the immediate supervision of Steve Jobs. As improvement advanced, Apple kept on refining the product's look and feel. Beginning with the iPod Mini, the Chicago font was supplanted with Espy Sans. Later iPods exchanged fonts again to Podium Sansa font like Apple's corporate font, Myriad. iPods with shade shows then embraced some Mac OS X topics like Aqua advancement bars, and brushed metal intended to inspire a mixture lock. In 2007, Apple adjusted the iPod interface again with the presentation of the sixth-generation iPod Classic and third-generation iPod Nano by changing the font to Helvetica and, by and large, part the screen into equal parts by showing

the menus on the left and collection craftsmanship, photographs, or features on the right (whichever was suitable for the selected item). In 2006 Apple displayed an unique version for iPod 5g of Irish rock band U2. Like its ancestor, this iPod has engraved the marks of the four parts of the band on its back, however this one was the first run through the organization changed the shade of the metal (not silver yet dark). This iPod was just accessible with 30gb of capacity limit. The exceptional version qualified buyers for an elite feature with 33 minutes of meetings and execution by U2, downloadable from the itunes Store. The name iPod was proposed by Vinnie Chieco, an independent marketing specialist, who (with others) was gotten by Apple to deduce how to acquaint the new player with people in general. After Chieco saw a model, he thought about the motion picture 2001: A Space Odyssey and the expression "Open the unit bayou entryway, Hal!", which alludes to the white EVA Pods of the Discovery One spaceship. Chieco saw a similarity to the relationship between the spaceship and the more modest autonomous cases in the relationship between a PC and the music player. Apple examined the trademark and observed that it was at that point being used. Joseph N. Grasso of New Jersey had initially recorded an "iPod" trademark with the U.s. Patent and Trademark Office (USPTO) in July 2000 for Internet stands. The primary iPod stands had been showed to people in general in New Jersey in March 1998, and business use started in January 2000, however had obviously been suspended by 2001. The trademark was enlisted by the USPTO in November 2003, and Grasso allocated it to Apple Computer, Inc. in 2005.

REVIEW OF LITERATURE
The two works of literature which gave valuable inputs and without which our project would have been incomplete are Forecasting and Management of Technology which is co-authored by six scholars: Alan L. Porter, Scott W. Cunningham, Jerry Banks, A. Thomas Roper, Thomas W. Mason, and Frederick A. Rossini. The other book was Technological Forecasting for decision making by Joseph Paul. Forecasting and Management of Technology gives a great insight into how technological forecasting is beneficial to the business groups. It lays down the importance of recognizing the technological threats associated with the emerging technology and accordingly implement the technology to gain maximum profits. This book includes five case studies which illustrate the importance of forecasting and gives special reference to the internet which has emerged as one of the landmarks in technology over the past few decades. This book highlights the differences and the clear distinctions which are present between companies who apply technological forecasting in their management and companies that do not apply such forecasting in their daily routine. This book was published in the year 1991 and is one of the few books which dealt with the topic of forecasting of technology and technology management as this discipline was emerging. Technological Forecasting for decision making makes a great effort in showing how technology can be a bane rather than a boon if not implemented properly. Therefore, it showcases the importance of technological forecasting in the process of decision making of companies and argues that without proper technological forecasting; the use of technology can backfire and cause unrepairable loss to the company. Therefore, it emphasizes the need for forecasting in todays competitive world. These two books gave us valuable inputs on how to proceed with our study and therefore, our study would have been incomplete without these two books.

OBJECTIVES
The main objectives of our study are as follows: To prove that technology is a double edged sword. It is a given that technology creates numerous opportunities but at the same time, there are various threats associated with the use of technology. To understand the overall importance of technological forecasting and its importance in todays competitive world. To understand the various methods of technological forecasting and to show what are the desirable ways to forecast technology. To understand the concept of combined forecasting.

TECHNOLOGICAL OPPORTUNITIES
Technological opportunities means ease of achievements of innovation and technological improvements which could be jointly represented by the intensities of knowledge spillovers inter firm research overlap and scope of research in shorter term it refers to the opportunities which are created by the advancement of technology to various business. In this competitive age the business firms to maintain stableness they require new technologies. New technology and innovation create new opportunity for any business which helps them to grow and sustain. The innovations in the product make their product advanced and help to attract the consumer which can increase their consumer belt. It is challenging for the 3firms to develop internally and remain competitive at the same time. Merger, procurement and organization together are a percentage of the approaches to accomplish this, yet the essential driver is the yearning to acquire significant assets. Everywhere there is fight for inventing new technology. Necessity is the mother of invention is a very true saying and the main aim of technology is to identify the various demands of the prospective consumer and then take it as opportunity and exploit this opportunity by inventing the product which is demanded and lead the market. The main aim of technological opportunity is to make the firm technologically advance. According to the neoclassical theory of production, technological opportunities have been is the set of production possibilities which translates the resources of research in new production techniques which can give conventional inputs .They can be represented in the function of production by various parameters which relate research resources to increments in the stock of knowledge. Technological opportunity is mainly related to the external knowledge and their contribution to the firm on the basis of which business persons make innovation to the product and develop their product. Many researchers in their studies have laid emphasis on the importance of various sources of technological opportunities in the innovative process, mainly by connecting it to their effect on Research and development indicators.

Impact of technology in business opportunity

The rise of the Internet combined with modern technological advances has reshaped the way businesses operate. The 21st century utilizes numerous electronic gadgets and devices that have

created efficient systems offering multiple benefits. From a business organizational structure, to advertising, marketing, and communication methods, modern industries, companies,

corporations, and entrepreneurs have discovered the benefits of using technology in the work place. The Internet has transformed businesses allowing communication to take place instantaneously as opposed to older, outdated methods. There is no question that technology has propelled businesses to new heights and has been a boost to productivity rather than a drain. For example filing and paperwork which were very essential for any business in earlier days is now replaced by the computers which saves time, money and paper. Carrying files from one place to other is replaced by carrying pen drives and hard drives which lots of information and are very portable. One of the biggest examples of how technology has reshaped businesses in the 21st century is in the field of communication. Cell phones, instant messaging, video conferencing email, with the use of web cams and chat, online conferencing applications, and fax machines have helped the business to communicate effectively and instantaneously across the globe. Online based communication systems combined with various other technologies have freed offices, removed telephone and cable wires, which were replaced by physical call centers which has virtual connections. This has also reduced the cost of the various business organizations which they would have spending for connecting to their employees and customers. Technology has vastly improved business communications with many positive advantages enjoyed by business owners, employees, and customers. There may be no better illustration of how the Internet has converted the way organizations advertise their products and promotion method used by them. Computer users that frequent the World Wide Web easily recognize the abundance of ads located on individual and company websites. While a TV promotion may take countless dollars, and achieves its intended interest group throughout specified times (when the business pretense); and magazine ads are just seen by a chosen few, ads on the Internet can show your administration or item 24/7 at an amazingly practical rate. Technology has upgraded the way organizations publicize and market an item. The 21st century has invited various ambitious people and entrepreneurs that publicize exclusively on the web. These organizations might have essentially no ad assuming that they were constrained to accept advertising techniques. In the field of health also many Advances have been made in health care technology such as computerized electronic medical records (EMRs) and physician order entry (CPOE) which saves the doctors time by automating certain tasks due to which they can dedicate more time to

patients. Technology systems also provide a place to document pharmacy activities that improve patient care across the health system.

Technological opportunities of iPod

The iPod is a line of conveyable media players composed and advertised by Apple Inc. The main line was discharged on October 23, 2001, about 8 months after iTunes (Macintosh form) was discharged. iTunes is a media player, media library, and versatile unit administration requisition. The latest iPod upgrades were declared on September 12, 2012. There are four current adaptations of the iPod: the ultra-conservative iPod Shuffle, the minimized iPod Nano, the touchscreen iPod Touch, and the hard drive-based iPod Classic. Technological opportunities of iPod are:1) Apple has sufficient financial resources that can be allocated for the development of this product therefore it has the opportunity to capitalize on its financial resources. 2) It also has the opportunity in sharing its on educational welfare as parents might see this as an educational device which has the capacity to read books 3) Its past products has a good reputation in the market so it has sufficient goodwill in the minds of consumer which means it has won the trust of the consumers so they can feel free in making innovations to the product and experimenting with new technologies which will help in the development of the product. 4) This product is adaptable to both males and females so the product is not for any particular gender due to which its customer base can be easily expanded 5) It has good innovation and competitive skills so they can harness this strength in making competitive and innovative product. 6) The iPad also implement better quality control and procedure which can help them in providing more magical and revolutionary kind of product to consumer 7) There is no close competitor of this product Sony is the second best but gives very competition and is not really a major threat. 8) This product is rapidly growing in the market even when it is really matured. This is great opportunity for this product to gain some good profits at its maturity.

9) It has huge online market which helps them in expansion of their business. iPod is available to very wide audience at a very low price. The online market also includes international market which gives the opportunity to expand the business and increase their sales.

TECHNOLOGICAL THREATS

Technology is a very broad concept in itself. As discussed earlier, technology is the usage, modification and knowledge of different and emerging tools, machines and techniques in order to solve a problem, or find a better and more effective way of solving an existing problem and to achieve a desired goal or to perform a specific function. Technology plays a very integral part of almost every persons life in the modern world. No matter how many times we deny the fact and argue to the contrary, there is no doubt that almost all of us are technological slaves and cannot manage without the technological tools that are available to us. The new generation is the most handicapped and is totally dependent on technology. Most of us cannot even imagine ourselves living in a time when there was no internet, but our parents managed it quiet well. Therefore, it is clear that with the advancement in technology, the mind-set of human beings is also changing and we are becoming more determined by the technology that exists today. Therefore, it is difficult to imagine a life without all the technological benefits that exist today. There is access to almost everything on the internet in todays modern world. This is the generation of fancy new phones which the previous generation could not have even thought of; cars with better technological inputs are being constructed, digital cameras have emerged in the market and several other technological inventions have taken place over the last few years. There is no denying the fact that these developments have definitely made life easier and the world a more comfortable place to live in. However, the common man, who has been mesmerized by these favorable features of technology, does not realize that this technology is a double edged sword. Despite its uncountable advantages, there are threats which the technology poses to the current generation as well as the upcoming generation which can be damaging to a great extent. However, not many realize the severe nature of this threat which is posed by technology and the rapid pace at which this technology is advancing. Technological threat is the threat which is created by the use of technology while trying to achieve a particular goal or while discharging any function. There is no doubt that the technology drive, along with providing numerous opportunities, has created a few threats along with it.

There is considerable amount of truth in the fact that most technological advancements have created one or more threats in some way or the other. In general, the use of technology has some dangers associated with it. Some of the common threats which are presented by technology include the increasing risk and insecurity in the business world. The business world is increasingly becoming more and more technologically dependent and therefore, there is a fear losing important data through hacking and since, companies are becoming more and more dependent on computers, they do not store hard data with them which can be dangerous since soft data is not as reliable as hard data due to the threat posed by technology. Moreover, the rate at which the growth is taking place in the modern world is astonishing due to which the rate at which technologies become outdated has increased. Therefore, the risk of launching a product with the help of a new technology is very high due to the high competitiveness in the market today. Therefore, if the product fails, the cost incurred would be very high and therefore, technology, sometimes, increases the amount of loss that a business incurs. Therefore, technology does pose a threat to the society which needs to be recognized and needs to be addressed as soon as possible. For example, the invention of mobile phones was no mean feat in terms of technology. However, there is serious debate and the World Health Organization is conducting an extensive research on whether the use of mobile phones increases the risk of cancer. Moreover, traffic accidents due to mobile phones have also increased and the electromagnetic signals produced by mobile phones interfere with the aircraft electronics due to which phones should be switched off while travelling on an aircraft. Similarly, another technological threat is the threat posed by the internet to the society. The excessive use of internet by the present generation has clearly reduced the level of social interaction which is such an important aspect in the overall development of the child. Children who have not even reached their teen are addicted to the internet due to which face to face interaction has reduced considerably. This has an adverse impact on the society as a whole. The best example of technological threat is the development of nuclear weapons. This development has increased considerably in the 21st century and these nuclear weapons are a

threat to the entire humanity. A nuclear explosion would cause mass destruction and therefore, these nuclear developments are a big threat to the human race. Therefore, it is clear that technology poses a serious threat in certain situations and is not always a boon for the society.

Technological threat posed by iPod

The introduction of iPod was one of the greatest technological achievements of Apple. It brought about a revolution within a few months of its introduction. It created for its users a whole new experience of listening to music. There is not even a slightest of doubt that the invention of the iPod was beneficial to each and every person who loved to listen to music. The iPod has a tremendous storage capacity due to which large number of songs could be stored in it. An iPod can store 500-40,000 songs depending on its model. Moreover, it is a highly portable device and can be carried in a pocket. Therefore, it is travel friendly and this is one of the biggest advantages of an iPod. Moreover, iPods have an incredible battery life. Other selling features of iPod include its high quality music playback which is unmatched by any other device and its compact design. Most MP3 players have numerous buttons, but the iPod design uses a patented scroll-and-click wheel that many users find less cumbersome than buttons. Therefore, there is no doubt that the invention of the iPod was the result of a lot of technological inputs which were unprecedented in nature and therefore, this technology has certainly created a product which has clearly changed and modified the way people listen to music. There is no doubt that this technology has created a revelation in the music industry but just like other technological developments, the iPod brings with itself certain technological threats. The technology used to develop the iPod was quiet understandable unique and therefore, the cost of the iPod is very high and therefore, this was a big threat because if the iPod would have been a failure, it would have led to huge losses for Apple. Moreover, the electromagnetic waves emitted by an iPod is similar in nature to that of a mobile phone and studies are going on to check whether the use of iPod causes cancer and other

cardiovascular diseases or not. There is a strong possibility that the waves emitted by an iPod are a health hazard to the individual using the device. Moreover, another threat developed by technology is the fact that the internal battery of an iPod runs down over a short period of time and therefore, must be sent to Apple or the warranty is voided.1 Another reason that the customers are not willing to purchase an iPod is the fact that it is essential to have I-tunes to be able to operate an iPod. Without having I-tunes, the iPod cannot function since it is only through I-tunes that you can transfer music, pictures and videos to your iPod. There is no other source through which songs can be transferred into an iPod. Therefore, an iPod is not functional without the presence of I-tunes. Just like almost every other thing, technology has its advantages as well as disadvantages. On one hand, it creates thousands of new opportunities while on the other it generates certain threats too. It is on the customers to realize this fact that technology is a double edged sword and therefore, it is essential that the users respect technology and its development and do not exploit this technology in any way whatsoever.

http://www.ehow.com/list_5840722_advantages-disadvantages-ipod.html

INTRODUCTION TO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING

Forecasting is like trying to drive a car blindfolded and following directions given by a person who is looking out the back window. Technology is the provision of science or workmanship. All undertakings rest on a mechanical base. They are concerned with utilizing science and symbolization to fulfill a few objectives. For sure, most ventures rest on a base structured by numerous advances. The point when a venture is launched, choices must be made about which of the pertinent and accessible innovations to utilize. Now and again, a decision must be made between starting the task quickly, utilizing at present accessible advances, or deferring the undertaking keeping in mind the end goal to embrace a prevalent technology that is normal yet is not presently accessible. Notwithstanding innovative decisions made for the undertaking itself, it may be important to gauge the advances with which our mechanical decisions and our task outcomes will cooperate. Our frameworks must be sensibly good with those in the environment that do or will exist over their normal life. Both explanations behind determining technology go past the evident requirement to anticipate the mechanical future. Such arranging might possibly be the subject of an exceptional task. For some associations, innovative arranging is a continuous capacity of administration. In any case whether arranging is carried out as a standard or on venture groundwork, innovative determining is needed. We characterize mechanical determining as the methodology of foreseeing what's to come attributes and timing of technology. The point when conceivable, the expectation will be quantified, made through a particular rationale, and will evaluate the timing and level of progress in mechanical parameters, traits, and proficiencies. Similarly as with thought era, few task supervisors are locked in with tasks at the point in the life cycle at which mechanical determining is typically done. Choices made right now, at a young hour in the life cycle, impact the resulting course of the undertaking. Whether certain or express, the choice not to take part in mechanical

determining expects a static innovative future. This is a false suspicion, however in a few cases the presumption is not harming. We urge venture supervisors, senior directors, and policymakers to settle on cognizant choices about participating in innovative determining, and we urge venture chiefs to study and comprehend the importance of this procedure on undertaking administration. We start by examining the way of mechanical estimating, its history, and how it has been utilized. We then study the significant strategies presently being used. Last, we think about how to pick a proper gauging technique, the points of confinement of every system, and the general fate of innovative anticipating. Some of these models oblige an understanding of fundamental detail to utilize them, not to fathom their utilization and part.

History
In the definition, mechanical estimating is pointed at foreseeing future innovative abilities, qualities, and parameters. It is not an endeavor to anticipate how things will be carried out. Nor is innovative determining arranged to producer on. Governmental choices to help a few advances and not others have a critical effect on innovative advancement. For example, the choice to help the space system had real effects on scaling down in the hardware business, on the utilization of new materials and styles in the piece of clothing industry, and even on the look of TV advertisements. The national government's choice not to backing the SST influenced the technology of air transport in the United States. Assuming that innovative estimating predicts that certain ability is mechanically inside our span within a brief period of time, and if the government decides to help inquire about here, it is significantly more probable that the technology will be produced for instance, new methodologies to the era of electric force. In the event that the government chooses to back execution of the wanted development, there will most likely be a close term effect on benefits and the velocity of dissemination of the new technology. An alternate normal for mechanical estimating is doubt about the rate of progress of innovative proficiencies. Numerous proficiencies have a tendency to develop exponentially until they achieve some common utmost: for instance, flying machine speed, workstation memory size and

memory access speed, torque for every liter of inward ignition motors, around numerous others. This is on the grounds that new technology expands on more established technology, and synergism results from the combo. The point when one technology encroaches on an alternate, the cooperative energy regularly brings about a sudden and sudden expand in ability. For example, the advancement of microcomputers relied on upon the consolidated advances of electronic workstation hardware, scaling down of electronic circuits, effective machine customizing, and improvement of data stockpiling units, such collaborations are challenging to estimate. In the early 1950s, remarkable science fiction creator Isaac Asimov composed a short story set five hundred years later on. One ancient rarity emphasized in this story of what's to come was a little; hand-held gadget that could perform complex numerical figurings when its catches were appropriately pushed. The way that another competence is produced does not naturally imply that it will be put to utilize. The records of the Patent Bureau are stuck with pointless strokes of genius. The absence of provision potential does not, obviously, imply that the proficiency or logical discovering is useless. There are numerous cases of critical innovative developments that rest on apparently non applicable prior revelations. A for example is Albert Einstein's work on uncommon and general relativity. It relied on upon prior work of the mathematician Hendrik Lorentz, work that had no clear provision to material science when it was initially distributed. Despite the fact that changing extraordinarily from industry to industry, the exemplification of an exploratory finding, an improvement, has generally slacked the revelation itself, the novelty, by five to seven years. All the more as of late, focused weights in overall markets have had a tendency to abbreviate these slacks, however they are still critical. Once the development is produced, its reception is likewise not momentary, regularly taking between 10 and 20 years to achieve the purpose of business immersion. The slack between contrivance and enhancement, and the time needed for appropriation to be finished are functional for the mechanical forecaster and the task supervisor. The way that development is an antecedent to enhancement permits the forecaster to think about the conceivable nature of advancements before they happen. The lengthy methodology of appropriation gives the task administrator some capability to evaluate the improvement before really embracing it.

Truly, innovative gauging was dependent upon the conjectures of the most distinguished and prestigious master in the zone. This is no more suitable on the grounds that mechanical advancement has gotten subject to the cooperation of a few, regularly differing, and advances. A solitary singular once in a while has the essential level of mastery in all significant regions. Likewise, the administration and subsidizing of the few innovations have a critical effect on the degree and pace of innovative change. The government has assumed an inexorably essential part in innovative gauging. One of the soonest endeavors at innovative anticipating was the 1937 report Technological Trends and National Policy, Including the Social Implications Of New Inventions, which anticipated that plastics, TV, manufactured elastic, and a mechanical cotton picker were prone to wind up generally utilized and have huge social effects. Emulating World War II, the government built the Scientific Advisory Board to give direction to innovative improvement over a 20-year period, This was carried out, to some degree, on account of the asset bottlenecks and mechanical restraints experienced throughout modern assembly for the war. Numerous estimates were incited by the advancement of atomic force and robotization. At that point, in the 1960s, a blast happened in mechanical determining. The amount of articles on the subject expanded quickly, as did the enrollment of social orders committed to gauging what's to come. This investment was impelled by a few elements: a) The advancement of space technology. b) Open sympathy toward the earth. c) Open consciousness of potential asset limits. d) Technology as a main consideration of worldwide rivalry. e) Expanded accessibility of machine force. f) Broad distribution of the strategies and effects of mechanical gauging. In 1972, the government shaped a lasting office of Technology Assessment under the power of the Technology Assessment Act. The motivation behind this office was to furnish Congress with the data required for the help, administration, and regulation of connected innovations. The sum of this governmental consideration regarding innovative anticipating brought about enhanced determining systems, and in addition impressive simultaneous reputation and general enthusiasm toward the subject. Business firms saw the evident worth of producing figures that helped them

recognize the possible abilities of future items. Firms in the alleged high-technology zones headed the path in framing in-house abilities for innovative gauging. Others took after, some of the time setting up their determining assemblies and now and again utilizing advisors for impromptu anticipating sessions. As noted at the start of the section, the procedures were additionally used to help choice settling on the decision of generation courses of action and also items. Gauging sessions got to be enter for R&D, for showcasing life-cycle arranging, and for the office and help capacities. Hightechnology firms saw mechanical gauging as obligatory information to fundamental corporate arranging.

Methods of Technological Forecasting

The major techniques for technological forecasting may be categorized under two general headings: methods based on numeric data and judgmental methods. In the main, numeric databased forecasting extrapolates history by generating statistical fits to historical data. A few numeric methods deal with complex interdependencies. Judgmental forecasting may also be based on projections of the past, but information sources in such models rely on the subjective judgments of experts. Again, we emphasize that technological forecasting is most appropriately applied to capabilities, not to the specific characteristics of specific devices. The various methods of technological forecasting are: A. Demand Forecasting: - The activity of estimating the quantity of a product or service that consumers will purchase. Demand forecasting involves techniques including both informal methods, such as educated guesses, and quantitative methods, such as the use of historical sales data or current data from test markets. Demand forecasting may be used in making pricing decisions, in assessing future capacity requirements, or in making decisions on whether to enter a new market. B. Survey Methods:-Survey methods are generally used where purpose ultimate short run forecast of demand. Under these methods servings are conducted to correct information about consumer intentions and their future purchase planes further survey and end use method. In complete enumeration methods these are some limitations(i) It can be successfully used in case of their products whose consumers are concentrated in certain region or locality (ii) This method can't be used in wide spread markets sample survey method has also disadvantages such (iii) (iv) Sometime, reliability of data is missing. (ii) It can be of greater use in forecasting where quantifications of variables is not possible and behaviour is subject to change. In opinion polls methods, there are three methods more.

C. Expert opinion methods:-Expert opinion method is simple and inexpensive but has some limitations (i) Estimates provided by sales representatives are reliable only to extent of cheers skill to analyze the market (ii) Demand estimates may more the subjective judgment of the assessor which may lead to over or under estimation (iii)The assessment of market demand based on inadequate information available to sales representations. D. Market Studies and Experiments:-Here, firms select some areas of the representative markets having similar features population income levels etc. Then market experiments are carried out. But this method had few disadvantages (i) Experimental methods are very expensive and cannot be carried by small firms (ii) These methods are based on short term and controlled conditions markets and results may not be applicable (iii)Tinkering with price increases may cause a permanent loss of customers to competitive brands that might have been tried. E. Statistical Methods:-Statistical methods are considered to be superior techniques of estimation of demand due to reasons as (i) Method of estimation is scientific; (ii) Estimates are relatively reliable; (iii)The element of subjectivity is least; (iv) estimation involves smaller costs statistical methods of demand projection include the following techniques Trend Projection methods It is classical method of forecasting which is concerned with the study of movements of variables through time or cause and effect relationship is not revealed by this method, the projections made on trend basis are considered by many as mechanical approach trend method can be projected by three techniques based on time series dataGraphical method, lease square method and box tanking method. Exponential trend is technique used in Graphical method. It is represented as Y = a + bT + cT2

Commonly adopted methods of technology forecasting include the Delphi method, forecast by analogy, growth curves and extrapolation. Normative methods of technology forecasting like the relevance trees, morphological models, and mission flow diagrams are also commonly used. The most famous one is the Delphi method.

The Delphi Method

The Delphi method is a structured communication technique, originally developed as a systematic, interactive forecasting method which relies on a panel of experts. In the standard version, the experts answer questionnaires in two or more rounds. After each round, a facilitator provides an anonymous summary of the experts forecasts from the previous round as well as the reasons they provided for their judgments. Thus, experts are encouraged to revise their earlier answers in light of the replies of other members of their panel. It is believed that during this process the range of the answers will decrease and the group will converge towards the "correct" answer. Finally, the process is stopped after a pre-defined stop criterion (e.g. number of rounds, achievement of consensus and stability of results) and the mean or median scores of the final rounds determine the results. The Delphi method is a structured communication technique, originally developed as a systematic, interactive forecasting method which relies on a panel of experts. The experts answer questionnaires in two or more rounds. After each round, a facilitator provides an anonymous summary of the experts forecasts from the previous round as well as the reasons they provided for their judgments. Thus, experts are encouraged to revise their earlier answers in light of the replies of other members of their panel. It is believed that during this process the range of the answers will decrease and the group will converge towards the "correct" answer. Finally, the process is stopped after a pre-defined stop criterion (e.g. number of rounds, achievement of consensus and stability of results) and the mean or median scores of the final rounds determine the results. Delphi is based on the principle that forecasts (or decisions) from a structured group of individuals are more accurate than those from unstructured groups. The technique can also be adapted for use in face-to-face meetings, and is then called mini-Delphi or Estimate-Talk-

Estimate (ETE). Delphi has been widely used for business forecasting and has certain advantages over another structured forecasting approach, prediction markets. Forecast by analogy is a forecasting method that assumes that two different kinds of phenomena share the same model of behavior. For example, one way to predict the sales of a new product is to choose an existing product which "looks like" the new product in terms of the expected demand pattern for sales of the product. "Used with care, an analogy is a form of scientific model that can be used to analyze and explain the behavior of other phenomena." According some experts, research has shown that the careful application of analogies improves the accuracy of the forecast. A growth curve is an empirical model of the evolution of a quantity over time. Growth curves are widely used in biology for quantities such as population size or biomass (in population ecology and demography, for population growth analysis), individual body height or biomass (in physiology, for growth analysis of individuals). Growth curves are employed in many disciplines besides biology, particularly in statistics, which has an extensive literature on growth curves. In mathematical statistics, growth curves are often modeled as being continuous stochastic processes, e.g. as being sample paths that almost surely solve stochastic differential equations. In mathematics, extrapolation is the process of estimating, beyond the original observation range, the value of a variable on the basis of its relationship with another variable. It is similar to interpolation, which produces estimates between known observations, but extrapolation is subject to greater uncertainty and a higher risk of producing meaningless results. Extrapolation may also mean extension of a method, assuming similar methods will be applicable. Extrapolation may also apply to human experience to project, extend, or expand known experience into an area not known or previously experienced so as to arrive at a (usually conjectural) knowledge of the unknown (e.g. a driver extrapolates road conditions beyond his sight while driving).

RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
Defining the research problem is the most important method in marketing research problem and therefore most care was taken while defining various parameters of the problem. After going through various sessions of brain storming research questions were selected and objectives were set.

Data source
In this project we have mainly collected data from secondary sources. Secondary sources are those sources which have been collected by someone else and which have been passed through statistical process. These sources include online research, published articles and journals of various scholars, books in relation to the same and lastly the figures and information which is collected from Apple iPods websites and information published in various magazines. We have critically analyzed the information provided in these sources and then on the basis of these we made our hypothesis and answered our research questions and then after all findings we have mixed them with our innovative ideas and the ideas provided by our course teacher and tabled the same on our project which was followed by analysis and interpretations to reach at certain conclusions. The basic method adopted to prepare this research project is deductive; help of internet is taken to collect data. Scholarly articles were read to understand the concept then data was collected from secondary sources. The concept was applied to the data in order to deduce the conclusion.

CONCLUSION

In spite of the wealth of models and approaches that are available for technological forecasting, the main elements involved in the determination of future technology are economics, sociopolitics, and existing technology. The forecaster must not ignore any one of these three areas when attempting to forecast technology because they interact in a complex fashion to influence and determine the future. The key to valid technological forecasting is the careful inclusion of realistic and informed judgment into the forecasting methodology. In terms of choosing a forecasting strategy, one of the crucial factors is the potential economic value of the forecast compared with the cost of making the forecast. Some methods are much more expensive than others, and some tend to give better results for certain situations. The ease of entering, storing, fitting curves, and manipulating large amounts of data in microcomputers makes it tempting to "try everything," a strategy that tends to create more confusion than understanding. Technological forecasting can even become a way of procrastinating-the timid manager avoiding the need to act by insisting on more and more forecasts. The "best" technique depends in part on the environment in which the firm is operating. Many forecasting methods assume a relatively stable environment with constant trends. if such is actually the case, then statistical projection methods may be most appropriate, especially for the short range. Yet a major aspect of technological forecasting rests on the presumption that invention and change will produce technologies that are not simple extensions of the past. If this were not true, much technological forecasting would be unnecessary. In general, available data should be plotted as a time series to determine underlying patterns that may aid in choosing between alternative forecasting methods. A search for causal relationships is also helpful. Data are generally available for short-range forecasting situations only, which is why extrapolation techniques work best for short-run problems. As with methods for fostering creativity, the methods for technological forecasting have an imperfect past and a highly conditional future. But questions about the value of individual

methods do not extend to the general subject. Technological forecasting is not a luxury to be enjoyed if it can be afforded, it is a necessity that is recognized and done explicitly or unrecognized and conducted implicitly. Not to forecast is inherently a forecast that the future will be precisely like the past-a forecast certain to be false. Technological forecasting is a steadily developing art. Several of the methods covered above, both statistical and judgmental, have been computerized, either to make numeric data collection and manipulation more convenient or, through interactive programs, to ease the problems of collecting judgmental data. Current research seems to be focused mainly on developing more sophisticated judgmental methods, and on combining judgmental and statistical methods.

BIBLIOGRAPHY
Books
1) Technological forecasting for decision making by Joseph Paul 2) forecasting and management of technology by Alan L. Porter, Scott W. Cunningham, Jerry Banks, A. Thomas Roper, Thomas W. Mason, and Frederick A. Rossin 3) Globalization of technology: threats and opportunities by Paul screen 4) An introduction to technological forecasting by Joseph P. Martino 5) Technological forecasting and long-range planning by Robert U. Ayres 6) A manager's guide to technology forecasting and strategy analysis methods 7) A brief introduction to technological forecasting by James Riser Bright.

Journals
1) The Impact of Technological Opportunities and Innovative Capabilities on Firms Output Innovation by Mara J. Oltra and Marisa Flor 2) Technological Forecasting and Social Change by Pistorius 3) Technological Opportunities, Absorptive Capacities, and Innovation by Wolfgang Becker and Jrgen Peters 4) Technology opportunity and productivity of R&D activities by Micheal k. Fung Gert T. du Preez and Carl W.I.

Articles
1) ALLEN, T. J. Managing the Flow of Technology. Cambridge. MA: MIT Press, 1977. 2) ARMYTAGE, H., et at. Hidden Factors in Technology Change. NewYork: Pergamon Press, 1976. 3) AYRES, R. U. Technological Forecasting and Long Range Planning. New York: McGraw-Hill, 1969. 4) BEDWORTH, D. D. Industrial Systems: Planning, Analysis, Control. New York: Ronald Press, 1973.

5) BLOHM, H., and K. STEINBUCK. Technological Forecasting in Practice. Lexington, MA: Lexington Books, 1973. 6) BRIGHT, J. R. A Brief Introduction to Technological Forecasting. New York: Pergamon Press, 1972. 7) BRIGHT, J. R. Technological Forecasting for Industry and Government, Methods and Applications. Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice Hall, 1968. 8) BRIGHT, J. R., and M.E.F SCHOEMAN. A Guide to Practical Technological Forecasting. Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice Hall, 1980. 9) BRODY, H. "Great Expectations: Why Technology Predictions Go Awry." Technology Review, July 1991. 10) BROWNLIE, D. T "The Role of Technology Forecasting and Planning: Formulating Business Strategy." Industrial Management and Data Systems, Issue 2, 1992. 11) Technological impact on business opportunity available at

http://www.qwiktag.com/index.php/education/168-technology-impact-on-businessopportunities 12) Business Opportunities and Threats in the Technology Cloud By Jessica Davis available at: http://www.channelinsider.com/c/a/Cloud-Computing/Business-

Opportunities-and-Threats-in-the-Technology-Cloud-621484/#sthash.Q0xrGvcL.dp 13) Swot Analysis Of Apple Inc By Balzer available at http://www.studymode.com/essays/Swot-AnalysisOf-Appl-Inc-161449.html

Web links
1) http://www.vanguardngr.com/2013/11/technology-driven-change-created-threatsopportunities-says-remisys-boss/ 2) http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0040162599000372 3) http://www.pharmacist.com/opportunities-and-threats-technology-double-edge-swordpharmacists