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14.1 Yield

The term yield means to bring forth and is defined as output over input.

Yield = Output Input

Figure 14-1 Yield If 100 units are input into a system and during processing 10 units become defective, only 90 good units will be produced as output. The resulting yield would be 90/100 = 0.90 = 90%. If each unit input into the system was valued at $10.00, a total value of $1,000 was input into the system. At 90% yield, the value of output is only $900, neglecting any value-added work done by the system. As can be seen from this simple example, yield is related to economics.

Is it possible to input 100 units into the system and get 100 units of output from the system and still have defects? Yes. Recall the hidden factory? A simplified version is shown in Figure 14-2 Simplified Hidden Factory. If we input 100 units into Operation 1 and 10 units are verified defective, but they are repaired and placed back into the system, the output will be 100 units. This is called the final yield the yield including those units that were verified to be defective but were repaired. Final yield reflects the loss due to scrapped units but not those which were repaired. For example, if 100 units were input into the system and 10 were verified to be defective and only 5 of the defects were repairable, the final yield would be: 100 Units Input - 5 Scrap Units = 95 Output Units for a yield of 95/100, 95%.

The yield achieved on the first pass through the system is called the first time yield output prior to any repair or rework being performed to overcome defects. When final yield is compared to first time yield there is a noticeable gap. This means that if only final yield is reported to management, there is a gap between what is reported and what really happened. Unfortunately, it is not uncommon that only final yield is reported, blinding management to the cost of repair and true number of units containing defects on the first pass through the system. This misreporting means that no action will be taken to improve the system.

Figure 14-3 Gap between Final and First Time Yield Assume in the system shown in Figure 14-2 Simplified Hidden Factory, has three Critical to Quality (CTQ) characteristics. Figure 14-4 Process with 3 CTQs each represents five-hundred units which have been processed through the system. No coloring indicates no defect was found; yellow indicates a repairable defect; and red indicates a non-repairable defect. 465 units are defect free; 22 units have defects but are repairable; and 13 units are unrepairable and must be scrapped. What is the yield of this process? 15 Units 3 Units 465 Units 7 Units 10 Units

Final output includes all good (465 units) and repairable units (22 units) for a total of 487 units. Final yield is final output / input = 487/500 = 97.4%. First time output only includes those units which are defect free on the first pass (465 units) and first time yield is first time output / input = 465/500 = 93.0%. Note that both final yield and first time yield are based upon the unit level of analysis. The only concern is a unit is a deemed defective without regard to how many defects occur within the unit. Both final yield and first time yield are typically determined from actual collected data with regard to good, repaired, and scrapped units.

The Poisson distribution is used to model the number of events occurring within a given time interval.62

r ( np ) e np r e P( y ) = =

r!

r!

x = 0, 1, 2...

Figure 14-5 Poisson Probability Mass Function If n is duration of the time interval, and p is the rate of the events (i.e. the average number of events per a unit of time), then (lambda) = np, the probability of an event occurring during the time interval. The probability of y is the probability of exactly r occurrences per unit interval. In terms of quality, lambda (), the probability of an event occurring, is defects per unit (dpu). If the probability of a defect is less than 10% and the overall likelihood of seeing a defect is high, which is common for quality issues, the Poisson distribution is appropriate.

r ( dpu ) e dpu P( y ) =

r!

x = 0, 1, 2...

Figure 14-6 Poisson with dpu as probability of occurrence We can determine the probability of the number of defects being 0, by setting r = 0; probability of the number of defects being 1, by setting r = 1; etc. However, since yield only occurs when a unit is brought forth error free defects are equal to zero the cases of r = 1, 2, 3, etc. are of no concern. A number raised to the power of zero is equal to 1 and 0! is equal to 1. Therefore the Poisson equation simplifies to:

0 ( dpu ) e dpu P (defects = 0) =

0!

( 1 )e-dpu = (1 )

Y .tp = e dpu

Figure 14-7 Number of units with zero defects

We call the probability of a unit having zero defects, throughput yield (Y.tp). Using the example represented in Figure 14-4 Process with 3 CTQs each, there are 25 units with one defect and 10 units with two defects for a total of 45 defects in 500 units. This is an average of 45/500 = 0.09 defects per unit. What is the probability of zero defects on future units? Y.tp = e-0.09 = 0.9139. This means if the average is 0.09 defect per unit at Operation 1, then the yield would be expected to be about 91.39%. That is 91.39% of the units would have zero defects and 8.61% of the units would have to go through repair or be scrapped. Figure 14-8 Understanding Throughput Yield shows two funnels representing two operations. Each funnel is filled with 90 green (defect free) marbles and 10 red (defective) marbles. This means the inherent defect rate is the percentage of red marbles in the funnel, 10%, and the throughput yield for each operation is 90%.

Figure 14-8 Understanding Throughput Yield The objective is to get a green marble in each of the two slots in order to yield a good product. What is the possibility of producing a part defect free a green marble in each slot? Rolled throughput yield (Y.rt) is the product of the throughput yield for each operation. Y.rt = (0.90) (0.90) = 0.81 = 81%. This means there is an 81% probability of yielding at both operations.

Y .rt = (Y .tp1 )(Y .tp 2 )...(Y .tp n ) where n is the number of operations

Figure 14-9 Rolled Throughput Yield We can see from the equation for rolled throughput yield that complexity has a significant impact. What if in the example above there were 10 operations each with 90% throughput yield and that all ten operation had to yield in order to have a good product? The rolled throughput yield would be .9010 = 0.3487 = 34.87%. This means that only 34.87% of the products would be defect free and the remaining 65.13% of the units would have to go through repair or be scrapped. All of a sudden 90% throughput yield does not sound so go. The concept of rolled throughput yield has significant impact on the hidden factory and scheduling. In the example of two operations with 90% throughput yield, the rolled throughput yield was 81%. If rolled

throughput is 81%, this means 1-Y.rt, 19% of the units are going to fall out as defective and will either need repair or replacement. Under the assumption that repair cannot be completed instantaneously, in order to allow on-time shipment to the customer, how many units must be input into order to get out 1 completed unit? This would be 1/Y.rt. In the example, 1/.81 = 1.24 units must be started in order to yield one good unit one unit not requiring repair or replacement. The actual cycle time is equal to the entitlement cycle multiplied by one over the rolled throughput yield. In the two operation example, if the entitlement cycle time for the two operations is a total of 10 minutes, then the actual cycle time is (10)(1.24) = 12.4 minutes. This means that 2.4 minutes additional time is required for each unit produced. The company is not receiving its full right of entitlement. Actual Cycle Time = (Entitlement Cycle Time) (1/Y.rt) Figure 14-10 Effect of Rolled Throughput Yield on Cycle Time Littles Law63 is one of the most widely recognized principles of queuing theory and states: Work-inprocess = throughput X cycle time. This principle is based upon average values and assumes a steady state system. WIP = (Throughput) (Cycle Time) Figure 14-11 Littles Law In the example above the actual cycle time is 2.4 minutes above entitlement cycle time. If the throughput is 1000 units, then the (1000 units) (2.4 minutes/unit) = 2400 minutes of excess WIP inventory. In addition to the time associated with the WIP is the cost of material and associated overhead. It is estimated that in a Four Sigma company, a company of average capability, that 25% of the WIP inventory is associated with the hidden factory.

First time yield and final yield were unit based number of defective units. Throughput yield and rolled throughput yield are based upon the number of defects per unit. Opportunity yield is based upon defects per opportunity. Y.dpo = e-(dpo) Figure 14-12 Opportunity Yield Does the equation in Figure 14-12 Opportunity Yield look familiar? This is the same form as the equation in Figure 14-7 Number of units with zero defectswith dpo (defects per opportunity) replacing (defects per unit). Is there a relationship between throughput yield (Y.tp) which is based upon defects per unit and opportunity yield (Y.dpo) which is based upon the defects per opportunity? Yes. Total opportunities is equal to the number of units times the number of CTQs (opportunities) per unit. Therefore if, throughput yield is equal to opportunity yield taken to the power of CTQs in the unit. Y.tp = Y.dpoUnit CTQs Figure 14-13 Relationship between Throughput Yield and Opportunity Yield

In the example below, Operation 1 has 5 CTQs per unit and Y.dpo is calculated as 0.9964. Therefore, Y.tp = (0.9964)5 = 0.9822. The example shows 0.9823 with the difference being in rounding.

The ability to transfer yield to other metrics is one of the key elements of Six Sigma. The translation will be shown by way of an example, but it may be beneficial to review the various types of yield discussed to this point. General Definition o Yield = Output/Input Unit Based Yield o First Time Yield = Y.ft = ( First Time Output)/Input First Time Output = Input - (Total First Pass Defective Units) = 1-P(First Time Pass Defective Units = 0) o Final Yield = Y.final = (Final Output)/Input Final Output = Input - (Scrapped Units) Opportunity Based Yield o Throughput Yield = Y.tp = e-dpu e = constant = 2.7182818 dpu = Defects/Input Note: Defects are not the number of defective units but the total number of defects found. e.g., A given unit might have more than one defective CTQ. This would count as one defective unit but two defects. Applies at the operation level. o Rolled Throughput Yield = Y.rt = (Y.tp1) (Y.tp2) (Y.tpn) Applies at process (system) level o Opportunity Yield = Y.dpo = e-dpo When applied at the operation level used to calculate Long Term Sigma (Sigma.LT) When applied at the process (system) level = Normalized Yield (Y.norm) which will be discussed with the following example.

62

NIST/SEMATECH e-Handbook of Statistical Methods, http://www.itl.nist.gov/div898/handbook/, 2007 63 Little, John D. C., "A Proof of the Queuing Formula L=W," Operations Research, 9, pp. 383-387, 1961

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